Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-09-23 | Western Kentucky v. Wichita State OVER 143.5 | 61-71 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
- Wichita is 1-0 after a 76-59 win over Lipscomb that saw 71 possessions. - Paul Mills has a system that promotes running on offense. - WKU is 1-0 after a 90-64 win over Kentucky Wesleyan that had 76 possessions. - Steve Lutz is another new coach that wants to run. |
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11-06-23 | Eastern Illinois v. Illinois OVER 142 | 52-80 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
The Illini have a very intriguing team in the Big 10 with three returning starters and some transfers led by Quincy Guerrier, Marcus Domask and Justin Harmon from Utah Valley. Brad Underwood teams run and put up a lot of points against overmatched teams. They faced this EIU team last year in the opener and won 87-57 in a 76 possession contest. They scored 85 or more six times last season in the non-conference. EIU has absolutely no size to counter the athleticism that will come at them. This one should be a blowout. |
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03-11-20 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas OVER 146 | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Vandy enters the tournament with a little bit of confidence after wins over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commodores are quickening their pace and have scored 87 and 83 in their last two games. Defense is still an issue checking in 295th in 2pt% and 265th in 3pt%. These two teams played back on January 15th with the Razorbacks winning 75-55 at home. Arkansas features the 45th quickest tempo and has an average possession length of 16.8 seconds. They have scored 85 or more in three of their last four. This game should see plenty of pace so give me the over here. |
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03-10-20 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga OVER 143 | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Gonzaga is in the title game once again and they are taking on St. Mary's for a third time. The Zags beat the Gaels 90-60 at their place back on February 8th and 86-76 at home just a couple of weeks ago. They are one of the most efficient offenses in the country checking in 3rd in 2pt% and 5th in 3pt%. Gonzaga is coming off a 81-77 win over San Francisco last time out and their defense was a little leaky. Over their last six games, they've given up 75 or more four times. I think this line is going down because of what people saw last night in a 51-50 game against BYU. St. Mary's defense has struggled all year against the better teams and BYU had one of their worst efforts on offense last night. I don't know if I see that happening again tonight with the Zags who have a lot more weapons. If this thing gets tight, then free throws come into play as well. |
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03-09-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU OVER 145.5 | 51-50 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
St. Mary's gets BYU in the semifinals of the WCC. They are coming off a 2OT win 89-82 over Pepperdine in the quarterfinals. The Gaels defense is nowhere near as good as it used to be. They allowed 80 or more six times in WCC play. The offense is 58th in 2pt%, 5th in 3pt% and 48th in FT%. The two meetings with BYU were high scoring with one being 87-84 in OT and the other 81-79. The Cougars are ridiculously efficient on offense. They shoot the best in the country from three and ninth best from two point land. BYU has put up 80 or more seven times over this current nine game win streak. Yoeli Childs makes such a difference for them and could do so once again on Monday. Give me the over here. |
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03-09-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State OVER 142 | 73-56 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
Wright State plays at a really fast tempo checking in 32nd as they take on UIC on Monday. They take an average of 15.8 seconds per offensive possession and shoot the ball really well from long range. The Raiders have scored 70 or more in every conference game except for two. The team's defense has been a mixed bag. In their two meetings with the Flames, UIC won 76-72 at home and lost 75-58 at WSU. Each game saw 75 or more possessions so there will be plenty of chances to add to this total. The Flames are 39th in defensive average possession length checking in at 16.8 seconds. They play good defense against the three, but turn the ball over a ton. UIC's defense has struggled at times against some of the better offenses in the conference. I think this one should be close and see plenty of possessions. |
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03-08-20 | Elon v. William & Mary OVER 142 | 68-63 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Tribe are the 2 seed in the CAA tournament and closed the regular season with a flourish winning five straight after a three game losing streak. They get Elon in this neutral court game whom they beat in the regular season finale at home 86-79 in a 72 possession game. Meeting one was at the start of the CAA campaign with the road team winning 74-73 at Elon. The Tribe's offense is really efficient right now with the 22nd ranked 2pt% and 76th ranked 3pt%. Nathan Knight was named POY and is by far the best player in the conference. William and Mary actually played in this gym back in December losing to St. Francis of PA 78-72 so it's not unfamiliar surroundings to them. Elon wants to play a slower style, but has been dragged into "quicker" games against teams who play with tempo. Case in point, the 72 possession game in Williamsburg and the 72 possession contest vs. JMU. I think this one is an over on Sunday. |
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03-07-20 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 152.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Duke is 2-3 in their last five games as they host UNC. You may remember about one month ago, the Blue Devils went to Chapel Hill and won a wild one 98-96 in overtime. The Heels had a huge lead evaporate on them, but they were able to find some offense. The Blue Devils are coming off an 88-69 home win over NC State extending their streak to three straight at home where they put up 85 or more. Duke's pace means we should see plenty of possessions especially at home. Yes, they have good numbers defensively, but they've struggled against offenses with a pulse. UNC has won three straight scoring 85, 92 and 93 points. They've started to figure things out a little bit and have the inside-outside duo with Anthony and Brooks. I think this one should see plenty of possessions and plenty of points. |
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03-07-20 | Seton Hall v. Creighton OVER 151.5 | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
Creighton overs at home are one of my favorite plays of the season. At home in conference play, they've scored 92, 59, 78, 77, 94, 93, 81 and 91 points. The Jays are the 9th best team in terms of three point FG percentage and are top 50 in both 2pt and FT shooting as well. The defense isn't great, but it's also not terrible either. They don't force many turnovers and beat Seton Hall on the road 87-82 earlier this year in a 76 possession game that saw Myles Powell shoot 3-16 from the field. That won't happen again this time. Seton Hall is 3-3 in their last six and 7-1 on the road in Big East play. They have scored 70 or more in every one of those contests. Both teams want to play with some pace and Creighton blisters the nets in Omaha. Give me the over here as I think it sails over the total. |
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03-06-20 | Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 151.5 | 64-84 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Wake Forest is playing some good basketball down the stretch as they play at NC State. The Demon Deacons recently picked up home wins over Duke and Notre Dame and put up 83 in a 10 point loss in Chapel Hill. This offense has scored 75 or more in four straight contests. They are hitting 75% of their FT's and almost 35% of their threes. The Demon Deacon defense has been rather porous on the road especially in conference where they gave up 90 at Duke, 90 at Notre Dame, 86 at Louisville and the aforementioned 93 at UNC. These two played back on December 7th in Winston Salem with the Wolfpack winning 91-82. NC State has played with a faster than average pace. They are coming off an 88-69 loss to Duke and need a solid effort to help them make the tourney. I think this one should see plenty of points on Friday. |
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03-05-20 | Stetson v. Liberty UNDER 123 | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
We're going to take a really rare under in a game that could see under 60 possessions. These two teams played twice during the regular season with the first game being a 54 possession affair at Stetson and a 61 possession tilt at home. The Flames have the 352nd quickest tempo and are taking an average of 21 seconds per offensive possession while opponents are taking 18.3 seconds on defense. This team is lockdown on D and in conference play has allowed 55 points or less seven times at home. They want to drag things out as much as possible. Stetson checks in with the 347th quickest tempo and 342nd in average possession length at 19.9 seconds. The two scores of the games these two played were 48-43 and 77-49. The Hatters have played four games below 60 possessions in conference play. I just don't know how this goes over the total on Thursday. |
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03-04-20 | Dayton v. Rhode Island OVER 145.5 | 84-57 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rhode Island is in must win mode now as they host Dayton on Wednesday. The Rams play with the 40th quickest tempo and the 39th quickest offensive possession time. They go as Dowtin, Russell and Martin go at Guard along with Langevine at center. These two played under a month ago and Dayton won 81-67 in a 74 possession game. URI shot horrifically in that game, but had 18 offensive rebounds which prevented things from getting worse. Obi Toppin and Trey Landers picked up double-doubles in the win. Dayton shoots 63.1% from two point land and has put up glossy numbers on offense. Their defense has been pretty good as well with some of their "worse" efforts being on the road. I think this one goes over the total on Wednesday. |
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03-04-20 | LSU v. Arkansas OVER 153.5 | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas plays with the 55th quickest tempo in the country as they host LSU. The Razorbacks want to get out and run at home as evidenced by them scoring 75 or more seven times there. They don't turn it over and are relatively efficient from two. The team is the best against the three but are vulnerable up close and are rather awful on the boards. LSU plays with a quick pace and is 16th in the country in two point shooting percentage. They have struggled on the road giving up 80 or more six times in SEC play. They are 283rd against the three pointer so we'll see if Arkansas can take advantage. These two played back on 1/8 in Baton Rouge with the Tigers winning 79-77. I think we could see something similar in this one. |
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03-04-20 | Texas-San Antonio v. Old Dominion OVER 144.5 | 59-84 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
ODU hosts UTSA on Wednesday night and they lost to the Roadrunners at home back on 2/6 in an 85-81 overtime game that saw Jhivvan Jackson go nuts. He and Keaton Wallace combined for 66 of the team's 85 total points on that day. The two teams went to overtime tied at 71 in a game that saw 81 possessions. UTSA has a horrific defense and teams have an average possession time of 16.7 seconds which is the 28th quickest in the country. On the road they've allowed 75 or more in every contest during conference play. UTSA's offense struggles to shoot, but they do make their free throws. Old Dominion's offense is rather horrific so that's a bit of a worry, but they've been better at home. In Conference USA play, they scored 70 or more five times including last time out in an 85-80 overtime win. I just think that they'll do some work on the Roadrunners and this one should go over the total again. |
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03-03-20 | Tennessee v. Kentucky OVER 131 | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Tennessee has had some lower totals as of late and I've been able to take advantage of them at Auburn and at Arkansas. The Vols offense is underwhelming having scored less than 70 in five straight games and they play with a slower pace, but on the road they've given up 86 at Arkansas, 73 at Auburn and 86 at Mississippi State. Kentucky's in the biggest of sandwich spots coming off the 7 point win over Auburn and a road game at Florida next. Still, at home, they've had some success at getting to the rack. These two played a 64 possession game in Knoxville with UK winning 77-64. They shot 50% from three and missed just three free throws. Tennessee's offense struggled, but they also had 12 offensive rebounds and just eight turnovers. I realize this is a lower total and I know why, but I also think it can go over. |
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03-03-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo OVER 150 | 69-75 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Buffalo plays with the seventh quickest pace and the 4th shortest offensive possession time. The Bulls have played every game at home except for one at 70+ possessions. Their defense has been rather awful lately which means a mediocre Redhawks offense could find some room. UB gave up 86 at home to Akron and 80 at Ohio last week. Miami Ohio has won two straight and is playing with some confidence putting up over 70 in each of those victories. The defense doesn't travel though with them allowing 70 or more in all but one contest. These two played in Oxford back on January 10th with the Bulls winning 83-78 in a 78 possession game. I could see something similar at home for UB who will be a lot more comfortable. |
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02-29-20 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga OVER 147.5 | 76-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Another trend I'm going to continue to play is the first half over in Gonzaga. It hit with about 3 minutes left in the first half last time out and now we're getting a lower number. I stayed off this play when these two played in St. Mary's and that hit easily as well. The Gaels defense hasn't been as stout as it's been known for in the past. They gave up 72 at Santa Clara last time out and have also allowed 79 at BYU and 84 at home to that same team. Now I'm not expecting a 90-60 game like what happened in Moraga, but I do think the Zags offense continues to succeed. This team is usually good for 45-50 points in a half and I think the Gaels can do their part as well. Give me this first half over. |
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02-29-20 | Cleveland State v. Green Bay OVER 150 | 67-74 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Green Bay plays with the 10th quickest tempo in the country and have the quickest offensive possession length at 14.5 seconds. They are 21st in three point percentage offense and 31st in FT% and are rather porous in both defensive categories as well. At home they've scored 80 or more five times in conference and beat CSU on the road 78-74 in a 71 possession game. That is notable because the Vikings don't go at a quick pace and don't have a very good offense either. Opponents have the 34th quickest possession time against them which means we'll see this thing crack 70+ I'm guessing. On the road they've played games with scores of 82-80 at IUPUI and 79-74 at Oakland. I think the Phoenix put on a show at home in their final regular season game. |
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02-29-20 | The Citadel v. Furman OVER 151.5 | 58-82 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
The Citadel will have it's hands full as they try to prevent a winless conference season. They travel to Furman to take on a Paladins team hoping to get in the NCAA Tourney. These two played back on 1/25 with Furman winning 78-54 on the road. The Citadel's defense away from home has been pretty putrid allowing 96, 91, 88, 76, 92 and 88 over their last six contests. They are 350th in two point defense and 224th in three point D. Furman is coming off an impressive 81-67 win at UNC Greensboro. Maybe there's a bit of a slow start, but they should win rather easily. At home they put up 101 on Samford back on 1/22 and can score in bunches. The thing is that they are 317th against the two so I think the Citadel could score a little too. Furman's getting to 90 and we're getting the over. |
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02-29-20 | USC Upstate v. Hampton OVER 153.5 | 90-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
They can't set Hampton totals high enough especially at home. They've continued to cash for me as every game in conference for the most part has been really high scoring. Jermaine Marrow is the highest scoring D1 athlete in Virginia and he forms a great duo with Ben Stanley inside. This team doesn't play any defense checking in 315th in 2 pt D and 326th in 3 pt D. These two played at USC Upstate back on 1/8 and it was an 83-73 Hampton loss in 82 possessions. The Spartans play at an average pace and also are rather porous on defense especially since they rank 325th against the 2. They are coming off a 90-82 loss at home to Winthrop. This team can score a little bit, but also their defense is bad. I'm going to continue to ride the trends and take the over. |
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02-29-20 | Elon v. William & Mary OVER 139 | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Elon is playing some better basketball as of late having won five of their last seven including a win at Charleston and a home victory over Northeastern. The Phoenix still don't have a great offense, but they've put up 70 or more in five straight and six of their last seven. The squad is 320th in three point defense and lost to the Tribe way back in game one of the CAA season 74-73 at home in a 64 possession game. Elon won't let this game get too fast, but that doesn't mean William and Mary won't score. The Tribe are 20-10 and have won four in a row. Outside of the 61-51 road win at Towson, this team's offense is clicking right now. They are 23rd in two point FG%, 83rd in 3pt FG% and 72nd in FT%. The defense can be a bit leaky. I think this one is an over and we rarely get totals this "low" in Williamsburg. |
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02-29-20 | Penn State v. Iowa OVER 151.5 | 68-77 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
Iowa is a completely different team at home and haven't lost there since falling to DePaul back in November. At home in conference this team has scored 67, 90, 85, 68, 72, 96 and 85. They play with a quicker than average pace and have many weapons on offense to worry about. These two teams played a tight game at the Palestra back in early January with the Nittany Lions winning 89-86. Penn State plays faster than the Hawkeyes with a top 45 tempo. On the road in Big 10 play they've struggled defensively. I just see a lot of points in this one as Iowa just plays that much better at home. |
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02-27-20 | Detroit v. Illinois-Chicago OVER 140 | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
This game has a lower total, but I think we can get over it. Let's start with meeting one that was a 70-69 game with 66 possessions and both teams being efficient from two point land. UIC has won five of their last seven and has the 32nd quickest possessions on defense which means teams find shots quickly. The Flames also turn it over around 23% of their possessions. On the other side, Detroit has lost six of their last seven and are ranked 18th in shortest possessions for opponents on offense. This team is the 2nd best in the country at free throw shooting, but they can't score from two point range. The good thing for our total is that the Titans defense is hideous. I think this is a tighter game and we sneak over this total. |
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02-27-20 | Radford v. Hampton OVER 150.5 | 81-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Hampton has won two straight and three of their last five entering this one. The Pirates are a fantastic team at home scoring 92, 83, 95, 83, 87, 80 and 87 in conference. They are speeding everyone up right now with Ben Stanley and Jermaine Marrow. The defense is absolutely hideous as well ranking 318th defending the 2 and 317th in defending the 3. Radford is one of the slowest teams in the country, but the offense has scored 70 or more in seven straight. They had a 72 possession road game with Winthrop too. The Pirates sped them up to 69 possessions in meeting one. I think this one is an over AND I think Hampton is a very live home dog. Don't parlay them, but I like both the side and the total. |
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02-26-20 | CS-Northridge v. Long Beach State OVER 151.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
Long Beach State has a top 60 tempo as they host Northridge on Wednesday night. The 49ers are a hideous two point shooting team checking in at 45.6%, but they are very good from long range. The team plays some hideous defense and that will help the total here. At home, LBSU has played a bunch of lower scoring games, but they did somehow give up 87 to UCSB earlier this month. There are a lot of teams in the Big West that want to play slower. Northridge has the 75th quickest tempo and their defense is worse than their opponent's. They are 299th in 2 pt defense and 352nd in 3 pt defense. In conference the Aggies have allowed 110 at UC Davis, 80 at Hawaii, 82 at Fullerton and 75 at UCSB. These two played back on January 8th to start Big West play and CSUN won 95-77. Crazy to think LBSU shot poorly from the field, but Northridge shot 73.2% from two point land and made 20 FTs as well. I just see a lot of pace and a lot of points in this one. ** Consider 1H over **
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02-26-20 | Tennessee v. Arkansas OVER 132.5 | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
Arkansas plays with a quicker than average pace especially at home where they like to play to the crowd. Their offense is pretty good from two point land, but the number one thing they do is defend the three pointer. They are the best in the country at it. The Razorbacks managed to put up 78 on Missou at home last time out and the Tigers don't want to play that quick. At home in SEC play, Arkansas has scored 69, 75, 66, 77, 76, 77 and 78. Tennessee is one of the slowest teams in the country and are mediocre offensively. Still, away from home, they've given up 73 to Auburn, 86 to Mississippi State, 74 to Kansas and 80 to Georgia. They won't want to run, but Arkansas is going to want payback after losing 82-61 in Rocky Top. The Razorbacks shot hideously in that one. They won't do that at home. I think this one is an over. |
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02-26-20 | Furman v. NC-Greensboro OVER 134.5 | 81-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
Furman and Greensboro play once again on Wednesday with the Spartans home this time. Back on January 11th, they won a road game 86-73 in a 71 possession contest against the Paladins. This one saw both teams shoot 60% or better from two point land and UNCG made 81% of their FT. By the numbers, UNCG plays a below average pace, but if you look, they've had 70+ possession games in five of their last six. They are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country which could get frustrating down the stretch in a close game. Furman is another team that plays at a less than average pace, but they are pretty efficient on offense. On the road, this team has had someone get to 70 points or more in four straight. You can beat the Paladins inside as they are 318th in two point defense. I think the possession number could be in the high 60s and we'll see some efficient offense from both teams. |
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02-25-20 | Ole Miss v. Auburn OVER 141 | 58-67 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Auburn overs especially at home have treated me well. The Tigers are shooting 53.2% from two point land and play at a pretty good pace. Not only that, but from time to time they are good for an extra period with four overtimes already. Auburn has scored 73, 95, 91, 75, 80, 80, 82 and 83 at home in SEC play. These two played an 83-82 2OT game back in January with the score at the end of regulation being 66 all so they still needed to do some work to get over the total then. Ole Miss plays with a modest pace, but they are coming off a 103-78 loss at home to Alabama. The team has struggled to score on the road which is why I'm guessing this is a lower total. Still, there's some talent there led by Breein Tyree and Khadim Sy among others. I think this one should go over the total on Tuesday. |
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02-23-20 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 139.5 | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
Creighton overs have been very kind to me especially at home where they've been dominant. The Blue Jays in Big East play have scored 92, 59, 78, 77, 94 and 93 at home. They are 39th in 2pt%, 15th in 3pt% and 60th in FT%. The Jays lost 71-57 at Butler despite playing a 70 possession game which is probably a little much for the Bulldogs. They are one of the slowest teams in the country, but have had problems defensively away from home. Seton Hall scored 74 while Marquette had 76. Butler's offense is capable of scoring some points as well. This total is too low for a Creighton home game so I'll take advantage of it.
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02-22-20 | Gonzaga v. BYU OVER 158 | 78-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
This bet didn't hit last time out because of a lackluster half by the Zags. I don't think we see that here as we get a BYU team that also wants to run and will do so at home. The Cougars are the 13th best two point shooting team and the best three point shooting squad. In meeting one in Spokane it was a 92-69 win for the Zags in a 74 possession game. The halftime score was 38-31 between the two squads which wouldn't be enough here, but I think we get more on the road. At home in WCC play, BYU has put up 63, 96, 93, 107, 81, 90 and 85. Gonzaga on the road in WCC play has scored 85, 94, 87, 87, 83, 90 and 89. These two should have some free-flowing offense with plenty of possessions. Give me the over in this one. |
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02-22-20 | North Dakota State v. North Dakota OVER 144 | 68-71 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
North Dakota State has won seven straight entering this one against their rival North Dakota. The Bison play with a slow pace, but they don't turn it over and are pretty efficient on offense. This team beat UND 83-74 at home back on 1/19 in a 66 possession game. Both teams shot the ball really well in that one and missed just five total free throws which helped contribute to the total. The Bison's road games in this conference have had scores of 77-74, 86-78, 71-60, 70-49, 78-73, 79-73 and 66-55. As you can see, it's a mixed bag as to whether or not the defense shows up. The Fighting Hawks are allowing opponents to have the 3rd shortest possession time on offense. They are 333rd in three point defense and 222nd in two point defense. The offense hasn't been that terrible, but their defense has allowed 94, 82, 68, 77, 71, 66 and 69 at home. I just think this conference is very conducive to overs so let's take it here. |
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02-22-20 | Hampton v. Winthrop OVER 160 | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Pace will not be an issue on Saturday afternoon as Winthrop hosts Hampton. These two played over a month ago in Virginia with the Pirates losing 116-95 in an 84 possession game. Hampton's road performances have not been great offensively and certainly not defensively. This team has gone over or flirted with the over in most of their games as the possession numbers continue to fly up. Winthrop has scored 85 or more eight times already at home. Their defense isn't that great either and the only thing that worries me about this is the early start time. To me, we'll see 80+ possessions once again and lots of points in an early over. ** Also play Over 76.5 1st half ** |
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02-22-20 | Tennessee v. Auburn OVER 132 | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Auburn is back home after two rough efforts at Missouri and Georgia. The Tigers are a completely different team at home where they've scored 83, 82, 80, 80, 75, 91 and 95 points in SEC play. They are really efficient checking in 31st in two point baskets. Auburn can play good defense, but they've struggled without Okoro in the lineup. Tennessee's offense is not very good, but their defense is pretty stellar. They are 9th in 2 pt defense and 3rd in block percentage. Ideally they don't want to run, but they played a 72 possession game at Alabama. The Vols gave up 80 at Georgia, 86 at Mississippi State and 74 at Kansas. The worry here is that they ugly the game up and it's played in the 60s. Still, it feels like Auburn is due a breakout effort and it could come on Saturday. |
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02-20-20 | Santa Clara v. BYU OVER 149.5 | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
BYU has a MASSIVE game coming up next with #2 Gonzaga coming to town on Saturday, but before then it's a contest with Santa Clara. The Cougars are the best three point shooting team in the land and are 11th in two point offense. At home in conference they've scored 63, 96, 93, 107, 81 and 90 so you know points will come. Their defense has been very hot and cold, but I feel like the letdown will come on this side of the ball. These two haven't played yet this season, but last year in their only meeting they played a higher scoring contest in the Marriott Center. Santa Clara has the 46th quickest tempo and the 11th shortest offensive possessions. They have lost three straight and are 5-7 in conference. The Broncos offense needs to show up, but in their other games against the quicker WCC teams they lost 104-54 at Gonzaga and 91-77 at Pepperdine in 73 and 77 possession games. I think this one is an over on Thursday. |
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02-20-20 | Oral Roberts v. Denver OVER 152.5 | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Oral Roberts travels to Denver on Thursday night. These two played at ORU back at the start of the month with the Golden Eagles holding serve 86-77 at home in that one. It was a 74 possession game which should be expected considering both of these teams play with a solid tempo. Also, neither of them are very good on defense with Oral Roberts checking in 315th in two point defense and 274th in three point defense. On the road in Summit play, ORU has had games with scores of 96-79, 74-67, 87-70, 92-68, 91-80, 74-68 & 83-76. Denver has won just one conference game and it's because of a bad defense that is 346th against the 2pt basket. At home, they've allowed 66, 82, 80, 93 and 70 in conference play. This team wants to get up and down a little bit more and has some talent with Jace Townshend and Ade Murkey. I think we see at least 75 possessions in this game and lots of points. |
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02-20-20 | Northeastern v. Delaware OVER 142.5 | 48-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
This total is a bit surprising with a Blue Hens team that is really efficient on offense. They are 17th in two point offense and 55th in three point offense. Delaware has scored less than 70 just four times in conference play and not since putting up only 68 at home against William and Mary. These two teams played in Boston back on 1/25 and it was a 76-74 game. That was with 66 possessions and UD hitting 80% of their two point shots. Both teams were smoking hot from inside the arc with Huskies checking in at 62.5%. Northeastern is 13-13, but they also have an efficient offense and an exploitable defense. NU is 26th in two point FG% and 20th in three point FG%. This team's given up 75, 74, 59, 76, 76, 72 and 45 in conference play. This one should be tight and I think plenty of points will be scored. ** Also take Delaware +1 ** |
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02-20-20 | Gardner-Webb v. Hampton OVER 151 | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
The shine has come off Hampton overs as of late, but they return home to host a Gardner-Webb team that they will face twice in a four day span. The Pirates offense is a little cold right now, but the defense continues to be awful. They've given up 70 points or more in every contest during conference play. Jermaine Marrow continues to be huge for his team and he'll play a lot better at home. In conference play the Pirates have had home scores of 92-85, 83-80, 116-95, 83-74, 87-81 and 80-70. The Runnin Bulldogs don't really do that with a tempo in the 270s. They have a mediocre offense although during this current win streak they've put up 74, 86 and 88 points. On the road they've shown some competency and should be feeling good after a win over Winthrop. I think these two teams should light up the scoreboard on Thursday. |
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02-18-20 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 153.5 | 73-65 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Creighton overs have been very good to me. One of those came way back on New Year's Day when Creighton beat Marquette 92-75 at home. The Jays shot almost 56% from two point land and made nine threes. Marquette got 18 points from Sacar Anim, Brendan Bailey and Markus Howard in the loss. Creighton is shooting over 38% from long range in conference play. They've not been as sharp on the road offensively, but still has scored 87 at Seton Hall, 76 at Nova and 83 at DePaul. Marquette is 17-7, 7-5 in the Big East, but they've won three of their last four. This team has played some higher scoring games at home with wins of 76-72 over DePaul, 82-68 over St. John's and 85-65 over Xavier. I think this one should see plenty of points in both directions. ** Small lean to the 1H over as well ** |
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02-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo OVER 143.5 | 59-72 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Buffalo is one of the quickest teams in the country especially at home where they push the pace. The Bulls lost at Ball State 88-68 already this season. That's impressive because Ball State rarely scores that much and usually won't allow that many possessions to occur. UB did play a lower scoring game against CMU at home on Friday February 7th, but that was a huge shock. In other home contests, they lost 78-77 to Bowling Green, and beat slower paced WMU 90-79. They'll probably get this thing to 70+ possessions which gives us a chance with this lower total. On the road Ball State has played some quicker games. They had a 78 possession affair at CMU losing 71-66. Ball State has played five 70+ possession games in the MAC. I think they can make things interesting and this one could go over the total. ** SMALL lean also to Ball State +4.5 ** |
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02-16-20 | Denver v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 150.5 | 62-85 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Overs in Denver games continue to be a fantastic play especially on the road. The Pios are allowing teams to shoot over 55% from two point land which is 341st in the nation. They've given up 90, 86, 82, 78, 86 and 80 away from home in conference play. Denver actually has a semi-decent offense led by Ade Murkey as well. They've scored 70 or more nine times in Summit League play. These two played in Denver back on January 18th with the Pios winning 91-76. The Mavericks have lost four straight and are another awful defense. They are 315th against the three pointer and 224th against the two. Omaha's home games in conference have had scores of 86-78, 81-80, 75-71, 87-82, 74-67 and 81-78. They play a little bit slower than average. Give me the over though as this conference features a ton of scoring. |
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02-15-20 | DePaul v. Creighton OVER 146 | 64-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Creighton is 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency as they host a DePaul team they beat 83-68 on the road just under a month ago. The Jays are 52nd in 2 pt%, 22nd in 3 pt% and 63rd in FT%. At home they've scored 94, 77, 78, 59 and 92 in conference. There's so many weapons on this team, but their defense needs a little bit of work. The Jays have allowed 82 points to their last two opponents St. John's and Seton Hall. This squad plays at an exactly average tempo. DePaul was 12-1, but now is 13-11 and it's because their offense has dried up a bit. Plus, their defense is rather porous at times. They've played some lower scoring games, but when the tempo gets pushed, they play along. Both Creighton and DePaul shot over 50% in their first meeting with DePaul making just three of 16 three point attempts. The two teams did make 40 FTs combined which is probably a factor, but I really want to keep betting overs in Creighton games. |
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02-15-20 | Chattanooga v. Furman OVER 141 | Top | 53-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Furman has won six straight and is playing Chattanooga who they beat 73-66 on the road back on January 8th. The Paladins are the third best team from the two point area shooting almost 58%. They've also struggled terribly defending two point baskets checking in 315th in the land. Furman has scored 75 or more in five of their last six with four of the opponents over that span scoring 70 or more themselves. Chattanooga is 16-10 and they are pretty bad against the two as well allowing opponents to shoot 52.5% from that area. The Mocs offense has scored 80 or more in two straight and four of their last seven. The team shoots the three pretty well and has gotten into some high scoring games away from home. Give me the over here as I think Furman is in really good form. |
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02-15-20 | Delaware v. William & Mary OVER 143.5 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Delaware is the hottest team in the CAA as they've reeled off seven straight victories since losing to these Tribe 77-68 at home back on January 16th. They are really efficient on offense checking in 14th in 2 pt offense, 58th in 3 pt offense and 42nd in FT percentage. They've poured in 80 or more in four straight games, but it's the defense that has been a problem giving up over 70 in all of their victories over this span. William and Mary's defense is rather leaky and their offense is very capable of exploding. They put up 77 against Drexel at home after a recent skid of scoring 65 or less. Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet are a very capable duo inside that the Blue Hens could struggle with. I think this one should go over the total as I just don't think Vegas is respecting these two. |
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02-13-20 | Winthrop v. Gardner-Webb OVER 141.5 | Top | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
This is a rematch of a wild triple overtime game back on January 11th when Winthrop won 99-95 at home. The game ended at 69-69 before the overtimes began so it was around this current number before the chaos. Both teams shot over 50% from two point land and made a combined 44 free throws. Winthrop plays at a really quick pace with a solid offense and a defense that also allows opponents to shoot over 50% from two point land. The Eagles are coming off their first conference loss of the season falling 81-77 to Radford. On the road, this team has scored 70 or more in every in-conference game except one at Radford. Gardner-Webb plays at a slower pace, but their offense is smoking hot right now scoring 86 vs. High Point, 88 at USC Upstate and 81 at home against Longwood. They are shooting 36.5% from long range. I think this number is just a bit too low and there should be plenty of points scored. |
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02-12-20 | Furman v. Samford OVER 152 | 86-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Samford is on a 10 game losing streak and one can point to their defense as a reason why. They allowed 90 points or more five times during this stretch including giving up 101 to Furman in a 101-78 loss to the Paladins. The one concern is that Furman made 17 three's in the first meeting which I can't expect again, but they should get to at least 80 in this one. This team is 336th in two point defense and 308th in three point defense. They play at a quicker pace and are usually good for 70+ possessions in a game. Furman is not as quick, but they are extremely efficient on offense. They are #2 in two point field goal percentage checking in at 57.9% as a team. They also struggle against the two themselves on defense checking in at 320th. The Paladins have scored 70 or more nine times in conference including each of their last five. There's not really any sort of look-ahead here so I think we get a focused effort from the better team. |
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02-10-20 | Charleston Southern v. USC Upstate OVER 140.5 | 52-66 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
This line could be a trap, but I think I'm going to bite and play it. These two teams played back in early January with the Bucs winning 89-75 in a game that saw almost 80 points in the first half. Upstate shot 50% from long range and had 19 turnovers while CSU got 25 from Phlandrous Fleming while shooting over 60% from two. The Bucs are 12-12, 6-6 in conference and have struggled defensively. They are 331st in two point defense and have allowed 70 or more in three straight road games. The offense is very hot or cold so that's a concern, but they are coming off an 85 point effort vs. Hampton. The Spartans are 10-15 and are 318th against two point field goals defensively. They've given up 70 or more in four straight, but the offense has played better at home. Basically it's two mediocre offenses against two bad defenses. I'll take a chance that the offenses show up and go with the over. |
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02-09-20 | Butler v. Marquette OVER 140.5 | 57-76 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Butler and Marquette played a wild game just a few weeks ago as the Bulldogs held serve at home 89-85 in overtime. It was a game that was 39-35 at halftime and that's with both teams shooting the ball just okay. Markus Howard had 26 on 8-of-27 shooting while Kamar Baldwin was 10-of-25 with 31 points. Marquette wants to push the pace and has scored 76, 82, 85, 80 and 71 at home during conference play. Their defense has been poor at times which will help here. Butler's team on the road has given up 76 at Villanova and 79 at DePaul. Their offense is ridiculously efficient though so that will help. It should be a close back and forth affair so give me the game over here. |
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02-08-20 | Oakland v. Wright State OVER 144.5 | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Oakland is 8-16 on the season and has already lost at home to Wright State 96-69. The Grizzlies are playing one of the slowest tempos in the country, but they've still been dragged into higher scoring games on the road. They lost 73-70 at Northern Kentucky after a 77-64 win at Detroit. The question will be if they can produce enough offense to help the total. Wright State's offense is smoking hot scoring 98, 89, 65 and 95 in their last four games. They've scored 75 or more in every single home game this season as they play with a quicker pace and a better offense. The defense can be hot and cold, but I don't need them to be completely lock down if WSU wants to put up 90. Give me the over here as I just think the Raiders should be able to do whatever they want. |
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02-08-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Denver OVER 143.5 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
I love playing Denver overs and this is another case where we will do so. The Pios have lost four straight and 14 of their last 15 as the defense continues to struggle. They are allowing opponents to shoot almost 56% from two point land and have allowed 75 or more in nine straight games. They play at the 49th quickest pace so there should be plenty of possessions in this one. Vegas thinks Denver is going to win at home and I just don't think they can do so in a lower scoring game. The Dons are playing at a slower pace, but have an equally awful defense from up close and long range. On the road this team allowed 75 to Omaha, 83 to South Dakota, 69 to Western Illinois and 83 to North Dakota. This figures to be a close game and I think it'll fly over the total. |
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02-08-20 | Hampton v. Charleston Southern OVER 154 | 72-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Hampton is smoking hot when it comes to the overs. Ever since the flip of the calendar and the return of Jermaine Marrow, they've been playing high scoring games. The key is also that the Pirates are doing it against slower paced teams as well. They managed to get into high scoring affairs with Radford and High Point. These two teams played back on January 4th and Hampton won 92-85 in a 74 possession game. They are getting to the free throw line often and play pretty much no defense. Hampton is 326th against the three and 299th against the two. On the road they've given up 88, 83, 86 and 83 in conference. The Bucs play at a really slow pace, but they've also struggled on defense as they sit 333rd against two pointers. Charleston Southern doesn't necessarily want to play a quicker game, but over this current three game losing streak they gave up 71 to Longwood, 77 to Radford and 77 to Winthrop. I see plenty of points in this one. |
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02-06-20 | Campbell v. Winthrop OVER 143.5 | 53-62 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
The Eagles are 16-7 this season and have won 12 straight games as they host Campbell. One of those wins came over the Camels at their place 87-72 back on January 4th. Winthrop shot 62% from two and 50% from three in that one while Campbell, a team who wants to play slower, shot almost 60% from two point range. At home Winthrop has put up 104, 72, 79, 99 and 91 in conference. They are shooting over 50% from two point range and have had a terrible time with fouling too much. The Camels are 11-11 on the year and are also really good at shooting from two point range. They ideally want a slower pace, but their last few away scores have been 91-74, 83-74 and 85-79 in games that saw 66 possessions or more. I think this one should go over the total with Winthrop setting up the pace. |
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02-05-20 | Mercer v. Furman OVER 143 | 57-79 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Mercer is 12-11 on the year, but they've won six straight games. These two played in Macon, Georgia back on December 20th with the home team losing 64-62. The Bears began the year playing really fast, but they've cooled the tempo off since then. During this win streak they've scored 70 or more in six of their last seven. The defense has improved as well although some of that was because of the opponents they were playing. Furman's offense is very efficient shooting 57.3% from two point land which is good for 43rd in the nation. Furman has scored 74, 101, 83, 73 and 65 at home in conference. They are not the most efficient on defense allowing teams to shoot just over 55% from two point land themselves. I feel like this one should see plenty of points on Wednesday. |
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02-04-20 | Auburn v. Arkansas OVER 143 | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
The Razorbacks are the 58th quickest team tempo-wise, but they are not the best when it comes to crashing the boards. The Hogs shoot over 53% from two point land and are the number one three point defense in college basketball. The offense has scored 70 or more in four straight, but the defense has also allowed that much in three contests over that span. Auburn crashes the boards hard and plays at a slightly above average tempo. They are shooting almost 54% from two point land, but are pretty bad from three. One has to wonder how much the UK game took out of them as they won 75-66 in a big game at home. This team has had it's issues on the road losing two of their last three with the win coming by one in 2OT at Ole Miss. The Tigers also have a 1 point win at South Alabama and a 12 point victory at Mississippi State. I think this one should see plenty of points on Tuesday. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show | |
My favorite play in the Super Bowl is the first quarter under. When you look at the Super Bowl, you see these teams thrown off a bit because of the longer pregame and the longer commercial breaks. Football players are creatures of habit so it may take some time for both sides to get into a rhythm. In my scenario, San Francisco receives the ball and goes on a time consuming drive leaving Kansas City very little time for a rebuttal. As long as both teams don't score TD's I think we're good. I like it less if it's 10, but at 10.5 points fire away. Trae Young -0.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards -- Trae Young is taking on the Mavericks and is coming off a tremendous effort against the Sixers where he had 39 pts, 18 assists and 6 rebounds. He averages 28.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg and 9 apg on the road which is good for around 41. Emmanuel Sanders just hasn't been part of the game plan the past few weeks. He's more of the possession type receiver and I think Bourne and Deebo Samuel are more involved. Take a shot with Young out-performing Sanders yards. |
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02-01-20 | Presbyterian v. Hampton OVER 153 | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm not going to step in front of the Hampton over train now as they had the week off to prepare for Presbyterian. Hampton's last seven scores are 92-85, 83-73, 83-80, 116-95, 88-86, 83-74 and 83-79. Jermaine Marrow's return has been big for the offense as he has possession of the ball in 35.4% of their possessions and has taken 37.4% of their shots. This team plays very little defense and it doesn't matter if you are slow or not, you will go. Last time out, they managed to push Radford a bit in a 69 possession game and the Highlanders are one of the slowest teams in terms of pace in the country. Presbyterian is 8-14 and relatively underwhelming offensively. They are rather hideous on defense though so I think Hampton could do a lot of the heavy lifting. The Blue Hose are coming off a 77-74 home loss to USC Upstate. This is one of those instabets right now until Vegas adjusts. |
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02-01-20 | Hofstra v. William & Mary OVER 145 | 83-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
William and Mary is 16-7, 8-2 in the CAA and is looking for a season sweep of Hofstra. The Tribe crushed them at their place 88-61 back on January 2nd in a game that saw Nathan Knight pick up another double double. His size along with Andy Van Vliet was too much for the home team. Since then they've gone 6-2 with an offense that is really efficient. Last game they beat Northeastern 59-58 after Knight went the length of the court to get the win. Hofstra is also 16-7 and they've gone 5-2 since the loss to WM. They have an efficient offense and are the 12th best FT shooting squad. This team has seen some high scoring games on the road where they don't seemingly mind playing with some pace. I'll take the over here. |
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01-30-20 | North Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 144.5 | 68-72 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Fort Wayne tries to snap a four game losing streak at home as they host North Dakota. These two teams played back on January 5th with the home team winning 83-69. The Dons have one of the worst defenses in the country allowing opponents to shoot almost 54% from two and 37.3% from three. At home they've given up 92, 70 and 59 in three conference games. North Dakota's opponents take just 15.7 seconds to get their possessions done which is the 5th fastest in the country. They don't force turnovers and also allow teams to shoot well from long range. If it's a close game, the Fighting Hawks are 6th in the country in FT%. On the road they've allowed 83, 87, 88 and 71 in conference. Now this offense has scored 70 or more in three straight and six of their last eight. I think this one is an over. |
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01-30-20 | Northeastern v. William & Mary OVER 142 | 58-59 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
I see that once again the total has moved down here and this time I'm not scared of it. If you look at the last matchup, you saw the Tribe won 66-64 in Boston, but that was in Mathews Arena which is a giant hockey stadium with odd sight-lines. The other thing about that contest was that there were only just seven free throws attempted so we know that number will be higher in Virginia. William and Mary out-rebounded the Huskies 34-25 in that one and continue to dominate with their twin towers. Both of these teams are ridiculously efficient on offense. Northeastern is 4th best in FT shooting and three point shooting and 33rd best from two point land. On defense they are 323rd against two point shots which will be an issue against the Tribe. WM is 17th best from 2 pt land and 39th from three point land. Someone has reached 70 points in all but two games in Williamsburg. Give me the over here. |
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01-29-20 | San Jose State v. Boise State OVER 153 | 71-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
San Jose State is 7-14, 3-6 in the Mountain West as they travel to Boise State. The Spartans average over 72 possessions per game which is 26th fastest in the country. Opponents have the 12th shortest offensive possessions against them as they are 285th in effective FG% defense. San Jose State has allowed 86, 98, 79 and 89 in their last four road games. Yes, their offense is pretty awful, but at least the pace is conducive to plenty of shots. They are coming of a 90-81 win at home against Air Force so there are some good feelings here. Boise State has a top 100 tempo as well and an offense that is shooting nearly 53% from two point land. The Broncos at home have scored 88, 73, 65, 103 and 100 in their last five games there. They also have a little bit of an issue on defense allowing teams to shoot nearly 54% from two point land. They gave up 83 to Utah State, San Diego State and Nevada already in conference play and 85 to Air Force as well. I see plenty of points in this game. |
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01-29-20 | VMI v. Furman OVER 144 | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Furman is 10-2 since a two game losing streak in early December and they host VMI on Wednesday. These two played in Lexington on New Year's Day and the road team won 89-73 over the Keydets. These Paladins are the 4th best two point shooting team in the country hitting 56.8% of their shots inside the arc. In conference play this team has put up 65 on ETSU with their slower pace, 73 on UNC Greensboro, 83 on Western Carolina and 101 on Samford. Furman is 332nd in two point defense themselves so you can score on them. VMI shot almost 55% from two in their loss earlier in the year. The Keydets are 1-9 since starting the year 5-7. Their offense has been pretty weak, but their defense hasn't been good either. They gave up 91 at USC Upstate and 73 at Mercer. This team wants to shoot a ton of threes. I don't know if we'll see the 162 points in Lexington, but I think it'll go over in this one. |
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01-28-20 | Butler v. Georgetown OVER 141.5 | 69-64 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
This is the classic case of a potent offense vs. a potent defense. The Hoyas have lost five of their last seven since a 10-3 start to the year. They have scored 80 points or more at home in every game except a random 65-61 loss to UNC Greensboro in late November. The Hoyas go as Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven go as they are the best two players. There's some other talent there with Jamorko Pickett, Jagan Mosely and Terrell Allen. Butler is playing at one of the slowest paces in the country and has the 22nd best adjusted efficiency defense. They've struggled in their last two road games on that side of the ball giving up 76 to Nova and 79 to DePaul. Still, this offense is so good too that I think even if it got to be a higher scoring game, that they should be able to score plenty. Georgetown home overs are almost instabet at this point. |
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01-25-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 144.5 | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are 11-10 on the season and they host Purdue Fort Wayne. Omaha's last three games were 87-82 (OT), 91-76 and 91-81. Their defense is rather porous especially against the three where they allow teams to shoot over 37%. At home, this team has scored 87, 74, 81, 87 and 92 since mid-December. They don't play with the same pace that they have in the past, but I think they'll find some success against the Dons. Purdue Fort Wayne is 9-12 and on a three game losing streak. They've got an awful defense and have allowed 83, 69, 83 and 89 in their last four road games. The offense isn't as potent as it has been in the past, but there are still some solid options. I think this one is an over. |
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01-25-20 | Denver v. North Dakota State OVER 141 | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
We hit our 5% play with the over in Denver's last game and it's a great team to do it against. The Pios average about 71 possessions per game and are one of the worst defenses in the country. They currently rank 341st in 2 pt defense. Denver's offense has mediocre numbers, but I don't need them to do too much of the heavy lifting here. This squad has given up 70 or more in six straight and 11 of their last 12 overall. They played North Dakota State at home in a 66-55 game which is why I think we're getting a little bit of a lower number here. The Bison play one of the slowest tempos in the country, but their offense is really effective and they rarely turn it over. NDSU at home has scored 80 or more twice already in conference play and is coming off a tough 78-73 loss to rival South Dakota State so I imagine them trying to start fast. Give me the over here. I think we can get 80 from the home team. |
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01-25-20 | NC-Greensboro v. Samford OVER 143 | 70-63 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Greensboro has gotten over the early conference woes and has won three straight entering this one. They play at a really slow pace, but this team has had a problem at times setting their pace on the road. They beat The Citadel 79-69, Furman 86-73 and lost at Wofford 98-92 in double overtime. Isaiah Miller and James Dickey lead the way and Miller takes just over 40% of their shots. Next up is a road game against Samford who wants to fly with the 44th fastest pace and the 29th shortest offensive possessions. The team has lost five straight and has given up 88 or more in four straight. Bulldogs opponents are shooting 54.8% from two and 36.6% from long range. Their last home game was a 90-75 loss to Mercer. I just think we should see plenty of points in this one. |
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01-25-20 | Mercer v. VMI OVER 141.5 | 69-66 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
It's a quick turn around for Mercer and VMI as they played just 10 days ago with the Bears winning 73-62 at home. Since then Mercer has beaten Samford on the road 90-75 and Western Carolina 85-79 at home. This is a team that is really good at shooting the three and has had issues with defending it as well. On the road, they've also lost 79-71 at WCU and 72-63 at Greensboro. The Keydets have lost eight of their last nine with the lone win coming at home 88-79 over The Citadel. At home, this team has scored 70 or more in all but one contest. They also crank out a lot of threes and play rather porous defense. The Keydets allowed 97 to Western Carolina in Lexington and 89 to Furman there. I see a lot of points in this one. I think the over is in play. |
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01-23-20 | Denver v. North Dakota OVER 143 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
To me, there's a ton of value with the over here in this matchup. It's meeting number two between Denver and North Dakota as UND won 82-71 in Denver earlier this month. They shot 65.5% from two point land and out-rebounded the Pios 41-32. Denver is coming off a 91-76 win over Nebraska Omaha at home. Before that they had lost 10 in a row allowing 80 or more six times. They play with a quicker pace and are one of the worst defenses in the country allowing teams to shoot almost 57% from the two point land. The Fighting Hawks meanwhile play at a slightly faster than average pace, but teams are averaging just 15.8 seconds a possession which is the 5th fastest in the country. They don't force turnovers and are allowing teams to shoot over 36% from long range. North Dakota has had just five true home games with three of those being sub division one. They beat Purdue Fort Wayne 83-69 and lost 66-62 to Nebraska Omaha. Denver has gone over in 13 of their 19 lined games while North Dakota has gone over in 11 of 17. These two have combined to go over in 13 of their 16 contests when the total is in the 140s. I just think this one goes over the total as both teams should be able to put up some points. ** 5% play from 143 - 145.....4% from 145.5 - 146.....No play if it goes over 147 ** |
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01-23-20 | Campbell v. Hampton OVER 147.5 | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
The return of Jermaine Marrow to the lineup has done big things for Hampton as they host Campbell on Thursday. Marrow is 6th in the country in % of possessions used and 7th in percentage of shots taken. The guard has been fantastic since returning and so has the offense. The Pirates have scored 88, 95, 83, 73 and 92 over their last five games. Now, on the opposite side is that they are horrendous on defense. They are ranked 309th in two point defense and 310th in three point defense. Over that same five game span, the squad gave up 86, 116, 80, 83 and 85 points. Campbell is 11-8 and plays at a lot slower pace, but their offense is rather efficient with a 53.3% from two point land. They've had trouble at times setting their pace on the road and are coming off an 85-79 loss at Presbyterian in a 74 possession game. I'm going to keep riding the overs in Hampton games for now. |
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01-22-20 | CS-Northridge v. UC-Santa Barbara OVER 142.5 | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
I like the over in this one as I think CSUN's lack of defense and an uber efficient UCSB team will bring us some points. The Matadors away from home really take that name to heart. They are allowing teams to shoot 53.8% from two and 38.8% from three point land. They are getting crushed on the boards and even deliberate opponents are having quick offensive possessions. This team's offense has perked up a bit as they scored 80 in a road win at UC Riverside and have some pieces in Diane and Gomez. UCSB is really methodical on offense, but they are really efficient too. This team plays some lower possession contests, but at home they've cracked the 80 point mark five times. I really like their offense and despite the fact that their defense has been very good, they could give up some points here. I can see another 80+ point effort from the home team leading to an over. |
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01-22-20 | South Carolina v. Auburn OVER 144 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Auburn has lost two straight as South Carolina comes to town on Wednesday. The Tigers play at a pretty good pace and are shooting almost 55% from two point land. Their defense has been very leaky during this recent stretch although it's strong at home. The Tigers have allowed 83 to Alabama and 79 to Vandy the past few weeks. Their offense at home has scored 80 or more seven times already with a 79 sprinkled in there too. South Carolina plays with a really fast pace and has the 27th shortest offensive possessions. The Gamecocks aren't great offensively, but that doesn't mean there won't be plenty of possessions. They are coming of an 81-67 win at Texas A&M and an 81-78 win over Kentucky at home. There are some ugly offensive numbers in the mix as well which is why I'm going full game as opposed to first half here. I just think Auburn is going to try and flex their muscles and put on a show. |
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01-21-20 | Toledo v. Ohio OVER 141.5 | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Toledo is coming off an impressive win at Akron on Saturday night 99-89 in a game that finally saw them hit their offensive potential. The Rockets traditionally are really good on offense and are shooting almost 40% as a team from long range. Toledo has struggled at times with defense on the road giving up 84 to Kent State, 78 to Bradley and 72 to UMKC. The Bobcats are coming off a 60-58 win at Eastern Michigan. Ohio's offense is decently efficient and has played four 70+ possession games in their last five. Ironically the one game with less then 70 over that span, the score was 83-74 at home against Bowling Green. I see a lot of points scored in this one. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 3 m | Show | |
There was a money move on the over and I think it was what I needed to push me towards the under. I think some of that move is because of Aaron Rodgers and the mystique surrounding him. Green Bay lost 37-8 to the 49ers way back on November 24th in a game that saw Rodgers struggle and San Fran get whatever they wanted. There's been some personnel changes since then that have made the 49ers and Packers even a bit stronger. Nick Bosa will have his best friend Dee Ford with him up front and the duo was in the top 15 of PFF's pass rushing grades when they played together. Jimmy Garoppolo was really efficient and the run game grinded out 5.1 yards per carry in that one. Joe Staley will be available for this one and he wasn't in the last meeting when Green Bay had three sacks. On the other side you've got the Packers whose defense has allowed 23 points or less in six straight contests since the MNF loss. They've been better against the run and have put together some solid performances in the secondary. Yes, Rodgers is scary when it comes to the postseason, but I'm guessing there will be a plan for Davante Adams. GB has gone under in 10 of their 17 contests this season including six of their last eight. This one just feels like a 24-20 contest. ** I'd also consider the Niners in the 1st quarter especially if it's anything less then -3. I'm just not as much of a buyer on the Packers as others are ** |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 24-35 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 27 m | Show | |
Going off the recency effect, people are jumping on the over as they saw KC put up over 50 points on Houston. They also saw these two play in Nashville back in November with a score of 35-32 going to the Titans. That game saw Patrick Mahomes throw for 446 yards and three touchdowns while Derrick Henry ran for 188 yards and two TDs. Fast forward to now and we're seeing an improved KC defense and a Tennessee team that has some intriguing pieces. These two played in KC in the playoffs back in January of 2018 that saw the Titans win 23-22. They ran the ball a ton in that one and controlled the clock. The same didn't occur back in November which I think the Titans will want to change. I can see Tennessee running it even more then they usually do because the best defense against Mahomes is not allowing him to have the ball. During this playoff run, the Titans have run it 77 times to just 31 passes. It's going to be a hold your nose situation because points will be scored here, but I think the under is definitely in play. ** I'd wait til Sunday to make this selection and see if it goes up a little bit more for some value. ** |
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01-18-20 | Indiana State v. Valparaiso OVER 140 | 77-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Valpo is 9-9 on the season with a 2-3 record in MVC play. The Crusaders have an intriguing offense that is playing with a quicker pace then they have in the past. They have the 50th quickest offensive pace and are allowing teams to shoot nearly 55% from two point land. Teams are getting whatever they want on Valpo this season. Last time out they gave up 88 points to Northern Iowa in an 88-78 loss. There are rumblings that Ryan Fazekas could finally play in this one too. He made the road trip last time out which was new. Indiana State prefers a slower pace, but has had somewhat of a hard time installing it on the road. The Sycamores shoot 39.2% from long range as a unit and have allowed 80 at Drake, 77 at Wright State and 91 at Louisville. I think this one gets played with some pace and it goes over the total. |
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01-18-20 | Sam Houston State v. Houston Baptist OVER 175 | 95-75 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston Baptist plays the fastest pace in the country and is in the top 5 in quickest offensive possessions and quickest possessions by the defense. This team has given up 100 points to five straight opponents and nine overall. The Huskies are allowing teams to shoot 61.3% from two point land and almost 40% from long range. They actually are a decent three point shooting squad themselves checking in at almost 38% as a team. It's almost an insta-bet on the over in their games because they just can't set the total high enough. Sam Houston State has a top 55 pace themselves and are 15th in the country in shooting long range. They've played games with scores of 90-81 at San Francisco, 90-86 at UTRGV and 94-75 at McNeese State. SHSU won't mind the pace so I can see them getting to 100 points themselves in this contest. Continue to take the over in HBU games. |
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01-18-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Denver OVER 145 | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Denver has lost 10 straight games entering this one and you can see why with the true lack of defense they have. The Pios have allowed 86, 80, 80 and 82 in their last four games with two of those coming at home. They play at a quicker then average pace and at home seem to have a little more success on offense. Denver allows teams to shoot 58% from two point land on the year. Omaha plays at a slightly faster than average pace and has had their struggles with defense on the road. The Mavericks are coming off giving up 91 at South Dakota, but that came after a 66-62 road win at North Dakota. Other teams to show some success against them away from home were EWU who put up 97 and Dayton who scored 93. To me, this one should see some points and go over the lower than expected total. |
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01-13-20 | Coppin State v. Florida A&M OVER 145 | 54-65 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Coppin State plays with the 4th fastest pace in college basketball and have the 10th shortest possession length on offense. Now, they don't shoot the greatest from long range or the free throw line, but they do it quickly. Only four of their games had 70 possessions or less. If you look at the Eagles defense on the road, they've given up 85 to Bethune Cookman, 79 to Mount St. Mary's, 91 to Miami and 86 to UMBC. There has been just three contests away from home where they've allowed less than 70. The Rattlers are 3-11 and are the 85th fastest team in the country. They are 36th in opponent's average possession length so you figure Coppin St will get plenty of shots up. This team has won three of their last five including a 70-68 victory at Iowa State. In their first true home game of the season, they won 77-68 over Morgan State. Neither offense is all that effective, but I think there will be plenty of possessions so the over is in play. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 47 | 23-28 | Loss | -103 | 90 h 6 m | Show | |
It's going to be bitterly cold in Green Bay as the Packers and Seahawks play in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has gone under in four straight and seven of their last eight games as the offense has failed to produce a ton and the defense has been fantastic. Aaron Rodgers has had a mixed bag season so far and I don't know if the run game is good enough to threaten Seattle's vulnerable defense. Green Bay down the stretch has held five straight opponents to 20 points or less. The lineup of offenses outside of Minnesota are not that great with the Giants, Skins, Bears and Lions joining the Vikes. Their pass rush is going to give Russell Wilson fits I think especially if they keep him in the pocket. On the Seattle side, the offense has scored 21 points or less in three straight and five of their last seven. They arguably shouldn't be in this game if not for a dirty hit on Carson Wentz. The Seahawks don't run it well so that puts a lot on the passing game and Wilson. Seattle's defense is nothing great which is a worry here on the total. Last year's game was a 27-24 Seattle win at home, but the previous meeting in September of 2017 was a 17-9 game. I see this one lining up in the middle and going under the total. |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 51 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 87 h 33 m | Show | |
These two teams played way back on October 13th with Houston winning 31-24 after a 23-17 halftime score. Houston was able to move the ball on the ground and found some success with Deshaun Watson despite him having the turnover issue. Houston's secondary is very vulnerable and I feel like with a week off, Andy Reid will put some wrinkles in to confuse the Texans. Coming off their late bye week back in early December, KC won 40-9 against the Raiders at home. Reid has been fantastic off bye weeks and has the massive advantage over Bill O'Brien on the sidelines. On the other side KC's defensive renaissance, to me, is a product of them facing extremely weak opponents. They held the Raiders, Pats, Broncos, Bears and Chargers to 52 points and none of those are that good. I can see Pat Mahomes getting whatever he wants through the air and I can see Watson doing what he wants as well. These two played back in 2017 with KC winning in Houston 42-34. I think this one should be a shootout on Sunday. |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 68 h 6 m | Show | |
The Titans slayed New England and now have to head to Baltimore for their third straight road game. Tennessee beat the Pats 20-13 and did so by running it really well and playing stifling defense against a weaker offense. Both BAL and TEN have slanted heavily to the over this year, but I think their styles match up well for this one to go under early. Tennessee is going to want to run the ball with Derrick Henry to keep Baltimore off the field. They'll mix in some Tannehill throws, but the last three weeks they've run it 105 times to just 64 pass attempts. The Titans defense has done pretty well against the run holding seven of their last eight opponents to 140 yards on the ground or less. They've been a mixed bag when it comes to facing the pass, but there could be rain in the forecast so who knows how effective these two will be at passing it. On the Baltimore side, you've got an offense that's playing their first game with the starters since December 22nd against Cleveland. The Ravens sat their key offensive guys in the 28-10 home win over the Steelers. Baltimore is another team that wants to run it with 107 rushes and 80 passes the last three weeks that they had their starters in. The Ravens defense has held four straight opponents to 110 rushing yards or less and their secondary has been awesome since giving up 268 yards through the air to New England back in early November. I think both of these teams grind out some possessions with plenty of runs and I think there could be an early feeling out process as well.
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01-11-20 | St. Joe's v. Davidson OVER 145.5 | 83-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Davidson comes home after losing three straight away from home. The Wildcats are one of the most disappointing teams in the country with Kellen Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson being way too good to be playing this poorly. They aren't the deepest team and don't play with the quickest tempo, but St. Joe's defense is more then accommodating. Davidson has played just three true home games this year scoring 87, 91 and 88 in those contests. The team shoots over 52% from two point land but is also allowing opponents to do so as well. St. Joe is 3-12 and has lost three straight themselves. On the road they've allowed 82, 87, 85, 108 and 84 points. Teams are shooting nearly 38% from long range against the Hawks who have one of the least efficient defenses in the country. SJU has gone over in 18 of their last 31 road games including four of five this season. Give me the over here. |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show | |
Everyone is throwing dirt on the Patriots after limping down the stretch to a 2-3 record. New England's offense is on a run of scoring 24 points or more in three straight games, but that is coming after a stretch scoring less than that five times. The Pats defense is coming off giving up 27 points to the Dolphins, but I think the unit will play better. At home they've held the Bills to 17, the Chiefs to 23 and the Cowboys to 9. Stephon Gilmore should be improved and have a lot of success against AJ Brown. Tennessee is really hot and a team that has a great offense statistically. It could be argued though that they haven't see a very good defense in quite awhile. Seeing a healthy diet of Houston, Oakland, Indy, Jacksonville and New Orleans down the stretch will inflate anyone's numbers. The concern for the under is if the Titans defense can slow down the Pats enough. Last year the Titans won 34-10 at home over the Pats. I just think the total is a little too high and the weather could be a bit of an issue too. |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 41 h 15 m | Show | |
The Bills and Texans start things off on Saturday in the NFL Playoffs. Buffalo's defense is holding opponents to around 16 points per game and under 300 yards per contest as well. Since allowing 31 points to the Eagles back in late October, they've given up 20 points or less seven times. It's very hard to run on Buffalo and the secondary has been pretty solid for the most part. The Bills offense concerns me as they've scored 20 points or less in four straight and five of their last six. Houston's defense isn't great, but it looks like JJ Watt is coming back which will be a huge help. They aren't good at stopping the pass but I just don't think Buffalo can take advantage. The Texans offense doesn't run it very well so that puts more pressure on Deshaun Watson. These two played in Houston last year with the home team winning 20-13. I think we see another low scoring game. 3% at 44 |
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01-04-20 | William & Mary v. Northeastern OVER 143 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
The Tribe have a chance to go 3-0 in the CAA with three road wins as they take on Northeastern on Saturday. The team beat Elon 74-73 in 2019 and then won at Hofstra 88-61 in a 71 possession game. They've got six road wins already this season and have one of the more efficient offenses in the country. They are shooting 55.5% from two point land and almost 38% from long range and feature the twin towers of Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet. Northeastern is 9-6 with three wins in conference over the dregs of the CAA. They are one of the slower teams in the country, but are also highly efficient with the 6th best success from long range and the 4th best from the free throw line. It's hard to get a gauge on the Huskies who have played both high and low scoring games at home. I just feel like the team from Williamsburg lets down here and we go over the total. |
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01-04-20 | Western Carolina v. The Citadel OVER 162 | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
The Citadel wants to run and gun and it shows with the 18th fastest pace in the country. They are allowing opponents to shoot 61% from two point land which is one of the highest in the country. At home, they've allowed 87, 91 and 96 to their division one opponents. The Bulldogs offense works better there though as well. Western Carolina has the 43rd fastest pace in the country and their opponents have possessions of just 16.2 seconds which is 24th fastest. On the road, they've played games with scores of 91-72, 79-74, 96-94, 70-64, 74-61 and 89-76. The common thread is that they succeed more when the opposition wants to run. Xavier and Stetson didn't want to and those were the two lowest scores. The Catamounts didn't mind running with the Bulldogs last year with scores of 103-82 at home and 94-82 on the road. Give me the over here. |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech UNDER 47.5 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
It's Bud Foster's final game as defensive coordinator for the Hokies and they get Kentucky on Tuesday. The Wildcats offense is predicated on Lynn Bowden Jr's mobility and the ground game. Last month they ran the ball an average of 51 times per game. VT has the 27th ranked rushing defense and has held their last seven opponents to less than 150 rushing yards. Normally I'd be worried that Caleb Farley is not a guarantee for Tech because he's their best corner but he wouldn't be very busy anyways. Power 5 teams averaged just under 20 points per game against UK's defense. The Hokies offense is solid, but very one dimensional. They can't run it very well even with the return of Jalen Holston so that puts more on Hendon Hooker who has been very good down the stretch. He's got amazing receivers with everyone healthy now. The Wildcats have the 2nd best pass rush by the numbers in the SEC. Another key factor is that both teams have amazing punters which will help the under and make each team have to drive long drives in order to score. I just don't know how either team gets to 24 points unless there's a massive turnover issue which neither team has. Give me the under here. |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan v. Western Kentucky UNDER 54.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 45 m | Show | |
The Hilltoppers boast the best scoring defense in Conference USA and have allowed just 20.1 points per game in 12 games. WKU allowed an average of 137.3 yards rushing per game. The group features C-USA Defensive Player of the Year DeAngelo Malone, who was tied for fourth in the country with 21 tackles for loss and 11th in the nation with 11.5 sacks when receiving the honor. Only two schools ran for 200 yards on the Hilltoppers this year and they were the two power five schools on Western Kentucky’s schedule. The problems for the Toppers come on offense where they are just okay. They want to run it and use their superiority up front. Western Michigan's offense is going to be one of the best WKU has seen this season. They have popped off quite a bit this season, but they've also failed to see too many defenses like this. The Broncos want to run the ball which will take some time off the clock. WMU has gone under in eight of their 12 games while Western Kentucky has gone under in half of their contests. I think this one features a bit more ball control. |
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12-29-19 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 47 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show | |
There are games in week 17 where neither team cares and plenty of points are scored. We saw that in week 16 with the Skins/Giants and Bengals/Dolphins contests. These two played in Atlanta back on November 24th with the Bucs winning 35-22 on the road. Since then the Falcons have scored 18, 40, 29 and 24 as Matt Ryan tries to finish with a flourish. The Atlanta defense has played well as of late, but the over has gone over in three of it's last five. On the other side, Tampa Bay saw it's streak of 28 points or more scored end at four straight after they only put up 20 on the Texans at home. Jameis Winston was in a giving mood once again and is part of the reason why the over is always so live. Winston is playing for his future and to keep up as the defense has struggled against the pass. They are in decent form right now, but once again in this final game, I think we get a back and forth contest. |
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12-21-19 | Weber State v. James Madison UNDER 47 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 93 h 47 m | Show | |
I missed the value of 51 on this one, but I still think we see an under in JMU/Weber State game. The Dukes offense was uncharacteristically sloppy last week in the win over Northern Iowa. The thing is that their defense was lock down once again. JMU's front line with Greene, Daka and Carter is immense and will shut down run games. I think the Dukes will improve on offense, but once again Weber State is going to struggle to score. Weber's offense did just enough last week in the snow against Montana. They have a very mediocre quarterback in Jake Constantine who nearly has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns. They have a mediocre run game and some decent weapons on the outside, but what the Wildcats are known for is their defense. They held San Diego State to just six points in week one and then a few weeks later did solid work against Nevada. I think this one could be a bit of a field position battle. I liked it a lot more at 51 but at 47, I think it's still worth a look. I can see a 31-10 type game. |
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12-21-19 | Montana State v. North Dakota State UNDER 47 | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show | |
These two teams have a ton of similarities. NDSU is No. 5 in the FCS with 285.9 rushing yards per game and Montana State is No. 7 with 265.9, but neither team has a 1,000-yard rusher. The Bobcats are No. 9 with 107.1 rushing yards allowed per game while the Bison are No. 30 with 134.7. The Bison have 41 sacks and have allowed 12. MSU has 41 sacks and have allowed 13. These two teams want to move the ball on the ground and I don't know if they'll be successful. In their last three games, the defending champions are averaging 22.3 PPG and 363.0 YPG. Montana State is averaging nearly 40 points per game over that same span as well. I think it's a field position battle between these two. I don't know if someone gets to 27 so I'm feeling it could be a 21-10 game. The one worry is that the Bison snap out of their doldrums and blow this thing out, but I just don't see that happening. ** I'd play this down to 45 or so. If you wait maybe the total sails up a bit and there's more value ** |
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12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 15 m | Show | |
Seattle hits the road to play the vulnerable Carolina offense on Sunday. The Seahawks are coming off a 28-12 loss in a flat spot against the Rams last time out. This team's offense has scored 27 or more in four of their last six and should use plenty of Chris Carson against a very porous Carolina defense. Seattle's defense is pretty bad and yet people aren't talking about it. They've given up 24 points or more in four of their last five. The Panthers have gone over in three straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Kyle Allen has reverted back to the mean as of late and is struggling right now. Still, with Christian McCaffrey as a threat, Carolina has scored 20 or more in three straight games. I just think this one is an over on Sunday with both teams putting up some points in a probable Seattle win. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy UNDER 41 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. |
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12-13-19 | Northern Iowa v. James Madison UNDER 46 | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
James Madison hosts Northern Iowa on Friday night at 7 o clock on ESPN2. The Dukes average nearly 500 yards of offense as they feature a full backfield with several running backs and an efficient passing attack led by Ben DiNucci. It's a little tough to take an under with this team because they've scored a ton on everyone. This squad also third in total defense and features a ferocious front line and a stout secondary. UNI is 11th in the FCS in total defense and 14th in scoring defense. The Panthers allowed only 220 yards against South Dakota State and 213 against San Diego. They've played road games in Ames Iowa and Fargo North Dakota so they won't be intimidated by Harrisonburg. The common thread for a lot of the steps up in competition for the Panthers is a lack of offense. They put up 26 on Iowa State in week 1, 14 on North Dakota State and 13 on South Dakota State last week. The worry is that they go three and out a ton and the game gets away from them. There's also going to be some precipitation in the forecast which could effect some things. I don't think JMU will be worried about it because they are balanced, but maybe it causes issues for UNI. I'll take my chances with the under in this one. |
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12-08-19 | Broncos v. Texans UNDER 43 | 38-24 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
It's Drew Lock's first true road game of his NFL career as they take on the Houston Texans. Denver's offense looked competent for the first time in a few weeks against the Chargers in a 23-20 win. The Broncos have struggled to run it and are relying on a rookie on the road. The good thing for Denver is that this defense has been awesome. Over the last nine weeks, they've allowed more then 25 points just three times. Their secondary is one of the best and their run defense for the most part has been strong. For Houston, this is an epic sandwich spot coming of a home division win followed by a Sunday night spotlight win over New England. They've gone under in four of their last five with the defense playing better and the offense showing some inconsistency. With a big road game against Tennessee on deck, I wonder if focus is an issue in this one for the home team. Last year these two played a 19-17 game in Denver with the Texans winning despite less than 300 yards of offense. Denver has gone under in 15 of their last 24 as an underdog and 14 of their last 22 on the road. Houston has gone under in 14 of their last 23 at home including four of six this season. Give me the under here. |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 47 | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Carolina moves on without their head coach Ron Rivera. From what it sounds like, the locker room wasn't too thrilled with that decision. Is it Rivera's fault that the defense has given up 92 points the last three weeks? I think Kyle Allen has been exposed a bit as of late and that's stopped the offense even though they scored 52 points the last two weeks. These two teams played in Carolina with Atlanta winning 29-3 back on November 17th. The Falcons offense gets a boost with the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper as well as a key offensive lineman up front. The defense was solid last week against the Saints, but I'm not buying them still. Carolina has gone over in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. |
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12-07-19 | Virginia v. Clemson OVER 54.5 | 17-62 | Win | 100 | 67 h 42 m | Show | |
The ACC Championship figures to be a blowout on Saturday night as Clemson takes the final step towards another playoff berth. The Tigers are averaging over 45 points per game as a unit while putting up almost 550 yards. Their coach Dabo Swinney has played the disrespect card and will want to use this platform to remind everyone how good they are. The best thing for this matchup is how banged up UVA is in the secondary. They let Hendon Hooker throw all over them last week and his attack is nowhere near as good as Trevor Lawrence. Travis Etienne should be able to find some holes against this front seven. On the other side, Clemson's defense is putting up epic numbers, but I think they are facing their best offense of the season in the Wahoos. UVA is averaging over 30 points per game and features Bryce Perkins who is the 2nd best QB in the ACC. UVA has scored 30 points or more in four straight and five of their last six. I think Perkins will be able to keep Clemson honest enough. The Hoos have gone over in eight of their 12 games this year. I just see a lot of points in this on one Saturday. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 55 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 63 h 16 m | Show | |
The winner of this SEC game will get their spot in the FBS playoffs. The Tigers are 12-0 and are putting up almost 50 points per game. Joe Burrow and this offense have scored 45 or more in four straight games, but outside of Alabama, I'm not too impressed with the defenses they've faced. Georgia allowed 151 rushing yards against three ranked foes, and it held Notre Dame and Florida under 50. LSU's defense has struggled at times, but I'm really not that scared of Georgia's offense. The Bulldogs put up 52 on a bad Georgia Tech team, but scored 67 points the previous three weeks and have been inconsistent on that side of the ball. Lawrence Cager got hurt and George Pickens is out for the first half after getting ejected last week. D'Andre Swift is the team's star running back, but he's not 100%. UGA's run defense has been awesome the past few weeks and the secondary has it's moments. Last year LSU won this game 36-16 at home with a 16-0 halftime score. |
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12-07-19 | Kennesaw State v. Weber State UNDER 56.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 62 h 3 m | Show | |
Kennesaw State is coming off a 28-21 road win at Wofford in round one of the FCS playos. In that game, quarterback Tommy Bryant suffered a leg injury and backup Jonathan Murphy came in to rush for 206 yards and three touchdowns. This team wants to run it as they average nearly 350 yards on the ground per game. Kennesaw has held seven opponents to 20 points or less and nearly knocked off their FBS opponent Kent State 26-23 in overtime. Another factor to consider here is that this will be their fourth road game over their last five. Weber State has had the week off to prepare for this one and is ninth in the FCS with 107.3 rushing yards allowed per game. They've held seven opponents to 20 points or less and are very familiar with the triple option as they've seen Cal Poly four straight years. Over the last four seasons, the Wildcats have held Cal Poly to an average of 12 points less and 128 rushing yards less than their usual scoring and rushing averages. I just think we see a lot of rushing and some long possessions. Give me the under here. |
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12-07-19 | La Salle v. Drexel OVER 143 | 71-63 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
It's a battle in Philly as Drexel hosts La Salle. The Explorers are 4-3 and have lost all three of their previous games against the rest of the schools in the area falling 75-59 at Penn, 70-65 at home to Temple and 83-72 at Villanova. A couple of things to point out here as the team shoots 45.4% from two point range and 65.2% from the free throw line. The average possession length for opponents on offense against them is 15.9 secs which is the 19th shortest in the country. Drexel is 5-4 with all five wins coming at home. Granted, the only solid victory of the group was Princeton, but this team's offense is pretty good. They've scored over 80 four times already this season and are 52nd in effective FG%. I think this one screams over and a play on the home team as well. Last year Drexel won 89-84 in this game and also beat them 72-70 in 2017. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Thursday Night Football features Dallas traveling to Chicago. The Bears had a five game under streak snapped last time out when they squeaked over the low total in Detroit against the Lions. Chicago has struggled to score all season long as Mitch Trubisky has had his issues. He may have come out of those struggles the last two weeks, but that was against some weak secondaries. We do know Chicago's defense has been as fierce as they have in the past holding four straight teams to 20 points or less. On the Dallas side, they've gone under in two straight as the offense scored just 24 points against playoff level New England and Buffalo. The run game has lost it's effectiveness as the team asks Dak Prescott to throw it more. Dallas' defense has been very hot and cold as teams start running on them. The Cowboys have held six straight teams to 250 yards passing or less. The Bears have gone under in 16 of their last 23 home contests including five of six this year. I lean heavily to the under as I think we could see both teams struggle to score here. |