Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-19 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL UNDER 46 | 42-35 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech's offense is absolutely anemic and it looks like they are making a quarterback change to Hendon Hooker. It was probably time for that to happen, but they've handcuffed him by basically making him a signal caller who runs it or hands it off. He's thrown just two passes in his college career so Miami's defense is going to tee off on him. The Canes have allowed just 270 yards per game and 16 points per contest. I'd heavily consider the team total under for the road team here as I just don't see how they get to 14. That means the Canes offense which has shown some success but is very inconsistent will have to do the heavy lifting. I'm guessing they spent some time working on some concepts considering they only put up 17 points and just over 300 yards on a MAC school. Tech has scored just 24 points in their last two meetings with Miami. VT has gone under in 11 of their last 18 ACC games while Miami has gone under in 14 of their last 18 conference contests. Give me the under here BUT the best bet is the under on the Hokies team total. |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 45.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern is sitting at 1-3 entering this matchup against South Alabama on the road. The Eagles are coming off a 37-24 loss to Lafayette in which it's defense couldn't stop the ULL rushing attack. On offense, this team is just not doing enough despite them putting up over 20 points three times. They are not getting anything through the air and Shai Werts is having to do more work. GSU's road games were a 55-3 loss at LSU and a 35-32 loss at Minnesota. South Alabama is 1-4 with their only win coming 37-14 over Jackson State. This team's defense is pretty horrific allowing 30 points or more to all of their FBS opponents. The Jaguars offense has scored 26 points the last three weeks, but has flashed some ability with Cephus Johnson. The signal caller is also prone to some turnovers which will give GSU short fields to work with. Georgia Southern has won this game 48-13 and 52-0 the last two years. They will also get Wesley Kennedy back and that'll help the offense. I think they could score the over themselves so give me the lower total on a Thursday night. |
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10-01-19 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
09-29-19 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | 40-25 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
The Browns are a hard team to peg right now. They are 1-2 with a win over the Jets and home losses to the Titans and Rams. The defense is playing well against the run, but haven't faced a quarterback as mobile as Lamar Jackson. The secondary is also really banged up with Denzel Ward, Morgan Burnett and Greedy Williams all not practicing this week. Baltimore won't kill you through the air, but they will take shots when they get the chance. Everyone thought Cleveland's offense was going to rule the day, but so far they have not as Baker Mayfield has struggled and they aren't feeding Beckham enough. Freddie Kitchens is a liability at head coach for this team. Baltimore is 2-1 with wins over Miami and Arizona and a loss to KC on the road. This team will grind out possessions with the run and beat you with the pass. The problem is their secondary isn't very good and can be exploited. Last year with Mayfield and Jackson at QB this game was 26-24 in Baltimore. I think this one could be tight and I'm going with the over as Cleveland finds ways to put up points. |
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09-28-19 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 54.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show | |
Kentucky and South Carolina play in a crucial game in the SEC. Both of these teams have some gaudy offensive numbers, but when you dig into them a little, it's against a lot of lesser opponents. Kentucky is 2-2 with wins over EMU and Toledo, but that's been followed up by losses to Mississippi State and Florida as the offense dried up under Sawyer Smith. Once the Wildcats lost Wilson under center, things changed up. I like their defense although they did get gashed on the ground by Toledo and Mississippi St. South Carolina's only win came against Charleston Southern and that was 72-10. The Gamecocks lost 24-20 to North Carolina, 47-23 to Alabama and 34-14 to Missouri. Hilinski has not been very good since the lone win of the season. They didn't run it very well against Missou and struggled to stop their balanced attack. To me, this is a matchup of very similar teams with the same issues. Last year these two played a 24-10 game and a 23-13 one back in 2017. UK has gone under in eight of their last 11 road games while South Carolina has gone under in 10 of their last 18 SEC games. I think this one is an under as well. |
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09-28-19 | New Mexico v. Liberty OVER 72 | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
New Mexico is 2-1 and flying cross country to play Liberty on Saturday. The Lobos have wins over Sam Houston State (39-31) and New Mexico State (55-52) to go along with a 66-14 loss to Notre Dame. This offense has found some balance despite rotating a bunch of quarterbacks. Their defense is horrendous against the pass which will be an issue against the recently hot Buckshot Calvert and Antonio Gandy Golden. The last two weeks Liberty began to play like the team I thought they would be. They beat Hampton 62-27 and Buffalo 35-17 at home. The Flames defense is really young in spots and should struggle against the diverse attack of the road team. The Lobos have also not allowed a sack yet this year. Last year these two played a crazy 52-43 game in New Mexico with the teams each racking up nearly 600 yards apiece. This game has shootout written all over it. |
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09-28-19 | SMU v. South Florida OVER 61.5 | 48-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a situational play for me as SMU is 4-0 and is coming off an emotional 41-38 road win at TCU. The Horned Frogs have been awesome offensively with Shane Buechele under center. They've beaten people on the ground and through the air. The defense has also sprung some leaks allowing over 200 yards on the ground twice. I think there's a chance we don't get a focused Mustangs bunch in this one. South Florida is coming off a bye week after a 55-16 win over South Carolina State. It was an awful start to the season with a 49-0 loss to Wisconsin and a 14-10 defeat at the hands of Georgia Tech. I'm sure the Bulls used a lot of time this bye week to work on Kerwin Bell's speedy offense. The talent is there with this bunch and they may find some success against SMU. The Mustangs have gone over in every game this season and have failed to cover the last three years as a road favorite. It's interesting to see that the McCloud kid is starting at QB and not Blake Barnett. Maybe that'll spark something. |
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09-22-19 | Lions v. Eagles UNDER 49.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 28 m | Show | |
09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings UNDER 43.5 | 14-34 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Minnesota is 1-1 this season after a 28-12 win over Atlanta and a 21-16 loss to Green Bay. The Vikings defense has been very good this year and has forced six turnovers. Kirk Cousins has not been very good and this team is pretty much trying to run the ball and control the clock. Oakland's defense is probably better then we thought it would be considering they held Denver to 16 points and KC to 28. The Chiefs weren't able to run the ball and the Broncos had modest success. Oakland's offense is very mediocre and I wonder how much they'll be able to move against the Vikes especially on the road. The Raiders have gone under in 17 of their last 25 as an underdog including eight of their last 13 on the road. Minnesota has gone under in 12 of their last 18 at home. I think this one is a bit lower scoring. |
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09-21-19 | Old Dominion v. Virginia OVER 45.5 | 17-28 | Loss | -113 | 45 h 19 m | Show | |
To me, this seems an awful lot like the WM/UVA game last week in that you've got a name your score type affair with the home team. UVA is averaging almost 40 points per game while the defense has also done some work as well. At times last Saturday they went bend but don't break as a unit which worked against the Seminoles. The Hoos have scored 30 points or more in every game and they have to work on cutting down the turnovers. A factor to consider is that they have Notre Dame on the road next week. ODU has two games under their belt with a 24-21 win over Norfolk State and a 31-17 loss in Blacksburg vs. Virginia Tech. The Monarchs defense doesn't scare me much. Their offense has potential with Stone Smartt under center as he brings mobility that keeps team's honest. He needs to fix his passing game because he's a little raw in that area. I can see this one being a 41-10 contest. I think the line move on the total is bad. |
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09-21-19 | Hampton v. Liberty OVER 55.5 | 27-62 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
Liberty is coming off their first win of the season as a three game homestand continues on Saturday. The Flames beat Buffalo 35-17 and finally looked like the offense we thought they'd have with Buckshot Calvert and Antonio-Gandy Golden. The defense has it's issues allowing 35 to Louisiana and 24 to Syracuse. Last year this team beat Norfolk State 52-17 at home as an FCS opponent. I think they should be able to put up some points on Hampton. The Pirates beat Elizabeth City State 65-7 in week one, then losing 36-17 to lower level Virginia Union before winning 41-20 on the road against Howard. The former FSU standout Deondre Francois has been the signal caller for Hampton so far this season. He's had a mixed bag of results so far this season. The one thing I do notice is that Hampton's defense isn't good enough. Francois has 7 TDs and 2 INTs. I think this one sees some points as they go up and down the field. |
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09-21-19 | William & Mary v. East Carolina OVER 47 | 7-19 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
East Carolina dipping into the FCS ranks for a second time this season as they host William and Mary. The Pirates beat Gardner Webb two weeks ago 48-9 and that was their best offensive effort after scoring six against NC State and 10 against Navy. I don't mind Holton Ahlers as a signal caller, but it's not good that they don't have Darius Pinnix in the backfield. The defense is as mediocre as you can get and I think they'll give up some points to the Tribe. Last year, WM's offense was very anemic, but they've put up 30 points or more on two good defenses in Lafayette and Colgate. Hollis Mathis is an intriguing prospect at quarterback as he brings some mobility and a solid arm. In between the two wins, UVA crushed the Tribe 52-17. I don't see the Pirates scoring that much but I do think William and Mary put up 20 or more. I can see this one going over the total. |
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09-21-19 | West Virginia v. Kansas OVER 48.5 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
This total moved down a ton this week and now that it's at around 48.5 and 49, I want in on the over. Kansas is feeling good right now after beating BC on the road 48-24 in a game that saw them pretty much do whatever they want on the ground and through the air. Now, the defense was still an issue, but they were able to make the stops when it mattered. The Jayhawks other two games were a 24-17 win over Indiana State and a 12-7 loss to Coastal Carolina. Pooka Williams was not available for that first contest and that makes a rather large difference. West Virginia is 2-1 and has been all over the board when it comes to performance. They beat James Madison 20-13 in a tight contest then lost 38-7 at Missouri. Austin Kendall and the offense got going last week in a 44-27 win over NC State. The defense is very beatable especially on the ground as pretty much all three opponents took advantage of it. These two teams have played contests with scores of 38-22, 56-34 and 48-21 the last three years. Points will be scored by both sides in this contest. Give me the over in this one. WVU has gone over in 11 of their last 18 in conference. |
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09-21-19 | James Madison v. Chattanooga OVER 42.5 | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 65 h 34 m | Show | |
Chattanooga is 1-2 on the season entering this home matchup against James Madison. The Mocs beat Eastern Illinois week one 24-10 at home and then got blitzed by Jacksonville State 41-20 and Tennessee 45-0. In each of those games, they folded under the pressure of the better offenses. Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks is the big time running back in that one and he comes over from Maine with Ailym Ford also providing some rushing yards. Opponents have been able to beat the Mocs through the air for the most part and JMU can certainly do that. The totals on Dukes games have been tragically low in my mind and I've taken advantage of it the past few weeks. They put up 63 last week on Morgan State, 44 on St. Francis of PA and 13 at West Virginia. The last FCS regular season road game they had was back in 2014 when they beat Lehigh 31-28 in Bethlehem PA. This offense wants to go fast and this defense wants to put pressure on you. At this number, I could see JMU winning and putting up at least 35 points. Once again, their total is too low so give me the over. |
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09-21-19 | Temple v. Buffalo UNDER 51.5 | 22-38 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 59 m | Show | |
The Owls made headlines last week as they held down the potent Maryland offense to the tune of 20-17 with several goal line stands. It's hard to figure how good Temple's offense is because they beat Bucknell 56-12 in week one and put up some decent numbers against the Terps, but Anthony Russo is prone to throwing some awful passes. The Owls defense could be one of the best in the country in the group of five. They'll be looking for revenge against Buffalo who beat them in Philly last year although UB was a lot better then. The Bulls beat Robert Morris 38-10 and then lost 45-13 to Penn State and 35-17 at Liberty. This team wants to run it with Marks and Patterson and they stop the run pretty well. The problems come in the secondary where they have been gashed. Temple's got a lot at stake in this one and I think their defense shows up in a lower scoring game. |
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09-20-19 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 51.5 | 31-43 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 27 m | Show | |
This matchup had so much promise before the season and now both teams are struggling to a certain degree. FIU is 1-2 with the win coming over New Hampshire last week 30-17. They ran for over 300 yards of offense on the FCS opponent and played pretty good defense. Outside of getting gashed by Tulane in week one, the Golden Panthers have been pretty good on that side of the ball. James Morgan may return but if not the Wiggins kid will be under center and he can beat you with his legs. Louisiana Tech may be 2-1, but they haven't exactly been that great. This team beat Grambling 20-14 two weeks ago as a 30 point favorite. The defense hasn't been the issue although they were beat up by Texas. J'Mar Smith is the Tech QB and Adrian Hardy is a very good receiver. Still, both of these teams have their faults. Louisiana Tech has gone under in 18 of their last 29 games including 11 of their last 18 as a favorite. I think this one is an under on Friday night. |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons OVER 52 | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 58 m | Show | |
The Eagles flexed their muscles against the Redskins last week winning 32-27. Philly has one of the most explosive offenses in football with so many weapons for teams to deal with. The problems came in the secondary where Case Keenum sliced right through them. I'd like to think Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will have big games against this defense in a must win situation. Atlanta lost 28-12 to the Vikings as Minnesota pretty much ran it down their throats the whole time. These two have played three straight lower scoring games over the past few seasons, but they were outdoors in Philly. Last year it was Nick Foles going for the home team. I just think in the dome, this one will see a lot more points as both teams try to pick up a victory. |
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09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 46.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -107 | 45 h 39 m | Show | |
It's an NFC East game as the Redskins host the Cowboys. The Skins lost 32-27 to the Eagles last time out after going up 20-7 at halftime. Their offense found some early success that I don't think they will find against one of the better defenses in the league. Adrian Peterson replaces Derrius Guice at running back and Case Keenum's weapons are really young. The defense will be without Jonathan Allen and maybe a pair of corners as well. On the Dallas side, they did what they had to against the Giants winning 35-17. Dak Prescott had a really good game, but New York isn't exactly much of a challenge. The Cowboys have gone under in 11 of their last 17 on the road. The Skins lost at home last year to Dallas 20-17 and has scored 20 points or less in three of their last four meetings with the Boys. I think this one is an under. I can see something like 31-10 as the Cowboys move up and down the field on Washington. |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 48.5 | 43-0 | Loss | -104 | 45 h 38 m | Show | |
The Patriots are huge favorites in this one as they travel to Miami to play a Dolphins team that just allowed 59 points to the Ravens. This is a contest that may mean a little more to the Pats because it's been a house of horrors for them in past years. New England is in a name your score situation here and usually they just go nuts on opponents. With Antonio Brown coming into the fold, the team has another weapon for teams to worry about. They beat the Steelers 33-3 last week. I don't know if Miami will score here, but I could totally see the Pats winning this 49-0 and it going over the total. |
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09-14-19 | Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 50 | 29-21 | Push | 0 | 68 h 9 m | Show | |
The Gators are coming off a 45-0 home win over UT Martin as the team built off the week one win over Miami 24-20. We saw how good this defense has been and how inconsistent the offense is with Feleipe Franks. Good thing for them is that the D has been fantastic. Last year the Wildcats snapped a long losing streak to UF with a 27-16 road win. That team relied a lot on Benny Snell who is now in the NFL. The current version of UK took a major hit once they lost Terry Wilson at quarterback. In steps Troy transfer Sawyer Smith who has some ability but is nowhere near as good as Wilson. The Gators are leading the nation in sacks so he could constantly be on the run. I kinda like this Wildcats defense as well. I think this one is a bit lower scoring and I'd even consider looking at the Kentucky team total under as I think they struggle to get to double digits. |
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09-14-19 | Bethune-Cookman v. Miami-FL OVER 56 | 0-63 | Win | 100 | 46 h 4 m | Show | |
Miami has to be quite ornery after starting out the year 0-2 against Florida and North Carolina. The Hurricane defense has not lived up to it's highly touted levels from the preseason allowing 24 to the Gators and 28 to the Tar Heels. Jarren Williams should have all the time in the world in this one and if he does, he'll connect plenty to KJ Osborn and Jeff Thomas out wide. Heck, we could see Tate Martell do something as well. Last year in the FCS game, the Canes won 77-0 over Savannah State as a 60 point favorite. Two years ago they played this Bethune Cookman team to a 41-13 game in week one. The Wildcats beat Jackson State 36-15 in week one and this is a team last year that played two FBS opponents. On September 15th they lost 49-28 to Florida Atlantic then took on Nebraska just over a month later falling 45-9 on the road. Akevious Williams is an intriguing quarterback with several linemen and receivers back. The defense is good for a MEAC level, but this is a step up. I find it hard to believe that Miami doesn't go nuts and probably go over the total themselves. This one should get really really ugly. |
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09-14-19 | Morgan State v. James Madison OVER 43 | 12-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
Morgan State disappointed me immensely in week one as they lost 46-3 to the lowly Bowling Green Falcons. The Bears were outgained 620-70 in that one as BG did whatever they wanted in this one. Morgan St is coached by Tyrone Wheatley and they are supposed to be going to a more uptempo offense. This team is coming off a bye week giving them some time to tinker with things a little bit. Last year, this team played two CAA squads and lost 36-10 to Towson and 30-27 to Albany. James Madison is way better then both of them and has a highly potent offense led by Ben DiNucci and Solomon Vanhorse. They lost 20-13 to West Virginia in Morgantown, but then bounced back to beat St. Francis of PA 44-7. The Dukes want to play uptempo and get things going with their talent advantage. At home in 2018 this team played games with scores of 73-7 and 51-0 as well as 48-31. I think the Dukes can do a lot of the heavy lifting here on this total and we see something like 45-3 or something like that. Morgan State is no match. |
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09-14-19 | Memphis v. South Alabama OVER 57.5 | 42-6 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 35 m | Show | |
South Alabama has played well so far this season keeping it close with Nebraska in week one 35-21. In week two the Jaguars bounced back and beat Jackson State 37-14. I like Cephus Johnson at quarterback as he's got a lot of raw talent and in the case of overs, he can throw the occasional interception. This offense has eight returning starters. Last year when the Jags took a step up they lost 55-13 to Oklahoma State and 52-35 to these Memphis Tigers. Memphis is 2-0 with a 15-10 win over Ole Miss followed by a 58-24 victory over Southern. There's no questioning this offense with Brady White under center and Damontie Coxie out wide. I'm not thrilled to be without Patrick Taylor for this one at running back, but I think this team is very capable of putting up some points without him. I think this one is an over as both teams are capable of putting up some points. |
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09-14-19 | USC v. BYU UNDER 56.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
This is so odd that the total is this high. Looking at BYU, they lost 30-12 at home against Utah and then they beat Tennessee 29-26 in double overtime on the road. Zach Wilson is an ugly quarterback who just hasn't done a lot this season. He didn't get his first touchdown until overtime last week. The Cougars defense has been pretty solid so that's a good thing for this wager. On the other side, you have a USC team that beat Stanford 45-20 with Kedon Slovis under center. Slovis is a rookie who did a lot in his first start. Now he's going to head to a hostile atmosphere where I think he struggles a little bit. The team beat Fresno State 31-23 at home in week one. They've got a huge game at home against Utah next Friday night so focus could be a bit of an issue. I don't mind this Trojans defense in this matchup. I just think this one is way too high. Give me the under in this one. |
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09-10-19 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
This AFC West battle would have had a lot more intrigue with Antonio Brown on the Raiders. Now that he's gone, Oakland is going to have a hard time scoring. Denver's defense should be able to get whatever they want on the Oakland offensive line that has had some injury and suspension issues. Josh Jacobs is the rookie running back and he'll need to do work considering Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow are Derek Carr's best weapons. The Broncos will rely on Von Miller and Bradley Chubb for pressure while Chris Harris shuts off half the field. On the Denver side, you've got Joe Flacco under center along with two solid running backs and a decent group of receivers. If you think Flacco has a lot left then he could find some success against this new look Raiders defense. I don't necessarily believe that's the case. Oakland's improved their safety play and has some decent pass rushers themselves. Denver has gone under in 21 of their last 32 games overall. The under has hit in five straight meetings. I think that trend continues on Monday. |
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09-08-19 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 46 | 17-35 | Loss | -119 | 144 h 60 m | Show | |
It's an NFC East battle in week one as the Cowboys host the Giants. Dallas has some interesting circumstances entering this one with Ezekiel Elliott holding out and Amari Cooper dealing with a foot injury. Cooper hasn't really practiced that much but swears he'll be ready for gameday. Without Zeke, it's Tony Pollard's show in the backfield. This offensive line should make almost anyone look like a 1,000 yard rusher. It's to be seen as to how good Randall Cobb is at replacing Cole Beasley as the slot guy with Jason Witten back as well. The Cowboys defense is pretty strong and has plenty of talent on all levels. They could have the best linebacker group in football and if that's not the case, then they are top 5. The Giants are a trainwreck as they have Saquon Barkley and pretty much no one else. Eli Manning is over the hill and he's got no one to throw to except Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Golden Tate is on suspension and the offensive line is very sketchy. Yes, the New York defense isn't that good, but I think Dallas will have to work for their touchdowns. Last year these two played a 20-13 game at home and a 36-35 contest in MetLife although that game featured very few starters as Dallas clinched things. You could take the number now and hope Zeke doesn't play or you could wait till closer if he does start and get a higher number. I'll take my chances he's out and I don't lose this. |
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09-08-19 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 46 | 27-32 | Loss | -110 | 245 h 46 m | Show | |
It's an NFC East battle to start out the 2019 campaign as the Eagles host the Redskins. I've been covering the Skins for awhile and watched them in training camp. This is a team that's going to play in a lot of 17-13 type games. Their front seven is one of the best in football and they will be able to get pressure on a lot of teams. With Josh Norman and Landon Collins in the secondary, at least a half of the field will be tough to navigate as well. There's definitely some holes and youth to worry about, but I think this team will at least make people work for their scores. The Washington offense is not going to succeed unless their ground game is going and half of the offensive line is a wreck without Trent Williams. Their recipe for success is to run Guice and AP as much as possible and grind out long drives. On the other side you have the Eagles who had Carson Wentz sit out the preseason. This offense should be absolutely incredible, but I bet it'll take some time to get on track. There's a ton of weapons out wide and in the backfield. There's a reason why I think this is a Super Bowl champion. The defense should be able to gain an edge up front and the secondary is good enough to keep the Skins down. Last year these two teams played a 28-13 game in Philly and a 24-0 game in DC. I can see a similar score in this one. If Washington gets to 16 points I'll be stunned. |
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09-07-19 | UTEP v. Texas Tech OVER 65 | 3-38 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
Texas Tech won game one 45-10 over Montana State in a contest that saw the Red Raiders find some rare defensive success. The team gave up over 30 points per game last year and only have six starters back. It's the offense with Alan Bowman that kept things going. Matt Wells came over from Utah State and he wants things to go massively uptempo. For some perspective, in games as massive favorites last year, Texas Tech put up 77 on Lamar and 48 on Kansas. This offense hums no matter who the opponent is. UTEP beat Houston Baptist 36-34 in week one. The Miners scored over 30 points twice last year and while it was an FCS opponent, that's still a good effort. Treyvon Hughes ran for a career high 144 yards and Brandon Jones looked better then he did last year. The defense was atrocious against HBU with the secondary getting crushed and the pretty much no pass rush. The worry here is that UTEP does nothing on the scoreboard other then take up time of possession. I think the Red Raiders can approach 60 points in this one because they are talking about going even faster then last week. TT has gone over in six of their last nine home games with a total of 63 or more. I'll take a shot that this is a 52-20 type game. |
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09-07-19 | Western Kentucky v. Florida International OVER 55.5 | 20-14 | Loss | -109 | 44 h 45 m | Show | |
Last week I said that I wanted to watch the FIU/Tulane game to see for future bets and I was highly disappointed by the Golden Panthers effort. They lost 42-14 to the Green Wave in a contest that saw both sides struggle. I've got to expect better things from James Morgan and his wealth of weapons. I think Maurice Alexander is a nice complementary piece with Austin Maloney as well, but there were way too many dropped passes. The defense returned eight starters, but didn't do much to slow down Tulane. Last year these two teams played a 38-17 game in Kentucky with the squad out of Florida getting the win. Western Kentucky lost 35-28 to Central Arkansas and that disappointed me as well as I like the Toppers this season. Steven Duncan had a good start with a couple of touchdown passes, but then he had some awful interceptions. I've got to think that if he struggles again then Ty Storey has to come in as the Arkansas transfer is rather talented. This defense is pretty porous and we saw them struggle last year at times in conference. I think we see the real FIU team and this one is a shootout. |
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09-07-19 | Kennesaw State v. Kent State UNDER 54 | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
Kent State is highly unimpressive and is 0-1 after losing 30-7 at Arizona State last weekend. Woody Barrett has some talent under center, but the question is who will he throw to. The defense has six starters back and should be competitive in this one. Last year in their FCS game they beat Howard 54-14 but we saw what the Bison did against Maryland this season. Kennesaw State won 59-0 last week against a team called Point University out of Georgia. They are a level or two below so the rout was expected in this one. Last year they went 11-2 putting up over 40 points while holding opponents to 15.4 per contest. The offense is undergoing quite the rebuild with Chandler Burks leaving as quarterback. The defense has almost everyone back and they'll force a lot of three and outs potentially. KSU will try to play ball control and reduce the possessions. Last year, this team lost 24-20 at Georgia State. I could see a similar score although the Owls could win on the road. |
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09-01-19 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
08-31-19 | Virginia Military v. Marshall OVER 60.5 | 17-56 | Win | 100 | 34 h 43 m | Show | |
VMI was 1-10 last year, but they had some close calls and actually have some weapons. Reece Udinski threw for 3,000 yards with 20 TDs and only 4 INTs. His top three receivers and top four linemen are back. Now, it's a completely different story for them to be competitive in a game against an FBS school. Last year they lost 66-3 at Toledo week one and 77-14 at ODU to finish the year out. Their defense returns a ton of talent, but will it take the next step against a Marshall team that could win C-USA. The Thundering Herd have 14 starters back including eight on offense. Isaiah Green won the job over Alex Thomson and Green brings some interesting intangibles. He's got to cut down on the turnovers as he had 10 interceptions last year. The defense has some returning talent on all levels, but I don't need VMI to score a lot. Marshall has Boise State week two on a Friday night so focus could be a bit of an issue towards the end of this one. This team won their first game last year 35-28 and beat their FCS opponent 32-16. I think this one gets ugly and we see a ton of points scored. |
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08-31-19 | Eastern Washington v. Washington OVER 56.5 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Eastern Washington went 12-3 last year losing in the conference title game as well as to Washington State and Weber State. The Eagles scored 48 points or more seven times last season. Now they lose Gage Gubrud to transfer as he went to Wazzu as well as Nsimba Webster and Sam McPherson on offense. Eric Barriere is the new signal caller and he's got FBS level talent. He can run and pass and will give defenses fits with his ability. The offensive line should be able to give him plenty of time. The question is who will step up for the big skill position losses. Antoine Custer is a senior who will have to hold off some intriguing options behind him. The defense held opponents to just 16.9 points per game in FCS play because they forced 34 turnovers. The defensive coordinator is gone and two of their leading tacklers as well. Their secondary is really inexperienced but the front seven has some talent. The Huskies will have Jacob Eason under center for this one and he's got to find some weapons to throw to. Myles Gaskin is gone from the backfield. Out wide some of the top weapons are back in Aaron Fuller, Ty Jones and Andre Baccellia. The defense was very strong last year holding teams to 16.4 points per game. Problem is that there's only two starters back so there will be issues on this side of things. Last year they beat North Dakota 45-3 in their only FCS contest. Week two UW has California in a conference game. I don't think there will be a lookahead, but if there is, I think EWU can take advantage. This one could be high scoring. |
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08-30-19 | Utah State v. Wake Forest UNDER 61 | 35-38 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Utah State went 11-2 last year and their success brought Gary Andersen back to the school for a second stint after Matt Wells moved on to Texas Tech. The Aggies go as Jordan Love goes because they only have two starters back. This team put up incredible numbers last year offensively, but are without a lot of that talent. The leading rusher is Gerold Bright who is pretty solid, but the leading receiver had just under 300 yards receiving last year. The offensive line has a long way to go too. Defensively, the Aggies are led by David Woodward who could be the best linebacker in the conference. There are 7 starters back on a team that held opponents to 22.2 points per contest. They held BYU to 20 points and Hawaii to 17 points on the road last year. Wake Forest went 7-6 in 2018 and have 12 starters back themselves. Jamie Newman was named quarterback after he had nine touchdowns and four INTs last season. His main weapons are Cade Carney at running back and Sage Surratt out wide. This team had a very hot and cold offense in 2018 and I expect more of the same in 2019. Defensively, I expect some improvement from the 33.3 points allowed last year. Upon further inspection, the numbers are skewed because they allowed 56 to Notre Dame, 63 to Clemson and 41 to Syracuse. These two played in Winston-Salem back in 2017 with the Demon Deacons winning 46-10. I don't expect either side to match that score in 2019. I think this total is a little high. The numbers skew to the over for the Aggies, but there will be some offensive growing pains. Give me the under. |
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08-29-19 | Central Arkansas v. Western Kentucky OVER 54.5 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Central Arkansas went 6-5 last year in the Southland Conference. The team averaged 30.5 points per game while giving up 26.1. Last year they opened up the year against Tulsa of the FBS level and lost 38-27. In that game they actually had a 13-7 lead at the end of the first quarter and were able to move the ball on the Golden Hurricane. The Bears have a pair of quarterbacks who threw for over 1,000 yards and a great tandem of running backs in Carlos Blackman and Kierre Crossley. They picked up two wide receiver transfers from Arkansas and have a pretty much intact offensive line. On defense, they are led by Chris Terrell who is a fantastic defensive lineman. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is led by Tyson Helton who comes over from Tennessee where he was their offensive coordinator. Helton was Sam Darnold's QB coach at USC and is pretty good with offense. The team named Steven Duncan quarterback, but he's going to have a short leash with Arkansas transfer Ty Storey behind him. Duncan is one of 10 offensive starters back and he's got a ton of weapons led by Quin Jernighan and Lucky Jackson at wide receiver. The run game took a bit of a hit when Quinton Baker left the roster, but there's a host of other options. The defense has six starters back, but they allowed nearly 28 points per game. Deangelo Malone is really strong as a defensive lineman, but the linebacking group is a concern. This team knows the talent that the FCS school has as last year they lost 31-28 to Maine as a nine point favorite. There is a conference game in week two, but I think they are focused on this one. I think plenty of points will be scored in a contest that will be back and forth. |
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08-20-19 | Indians v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 2-9 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
08-19-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Zach Davies comes off the IL to make the start for Milwaukee against the Cardinals. Davies had allowed 18 runs and 20 hits over his last three starts previously and is regressing after a solid start to the year. He doesn't strike out a ton of guys and has mediocre stuff. Davies faced St. Louis back in April giving up two runs and seven hits in just over four innings. StL found a lot of offense in Cincinnati and are now returning home. Dakota Hudson is 11-6 with a 3.82 ERA on the year. He's coming off a great start against lowly KC. Before that he had allowed 11 runs in his previous three outings. He's seen the Brewers twice this season giving up 10 runs and 15 hits in eight innings of work. Milwaukee flexed some muscle on Saturday and then struggled on Sunday. Still, these two should put up some fireworks on Monday. |
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08-11-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | 1-0 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
Masahiro Tanaka has hit a rough stretch in his season. The righty has allowed 19 runs and 27 hits over his last 12 innings. Tanaka is 7-6 with a 4.93 ERA overall. This is the third time he's seen the Jays giving up six runs and 10 hits in 12 innings over the previous two outings. Toronto has scored four runs or more in 14 of their last 15 games as the offense incorporates more youth. The Yanks bullpen has given up plenty of runs and can be beaten. Since coming off the IL, Trent Thornton has allowed seven runs and 13 hits to the Rays and Orioles. This is the third time he's faced New York and both the previous outings were not great. Thornton has allowed nine runs and 12 hits in just over eight innings. New York's offense should be able to get to him and a mediocre bullpen. Give me the over. |
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07-30-19 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
07-19-19 | Phillies v. Pirates OVER 10.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Jake Arrieta is dealing with bone spurs and can really only go five innings. He's lost some velocity and doesn't throw his cutter a ton now either. Because of that, he's essentially a worthless pitcher. Also, this means a terrible bullpen is going to have to cover more innings. Pittsburgh has gone over in eight of their last 11 games with some of that being their offense, but some of that is because of their terrible staff. Jordan Lyles has allowed 17 runs and 19 hits over his last 11 innings as the righty has hit some massive struggles. The Philly lineup is starting to pick up some steam and saw some success against the Dodgers. I think we could see a ton of runs in this game. |
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07-14-19 | White Sox v. A's OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
07-05-19 | A's v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Yusei Kikuchi is seeing Oakland for the fourth time this season. The rookie has allowed 10 runs and 19 hits in just over 14 innings. Kikuchi is 1-4 with an 8.42 ERA in his last seven starts. He only has 19 strikeouts to 18 walks over that span too. Oakland's lineup is putting up over five runs per game against southpaw pitching. Seattle's bullpen isn't great either. Brett Anderson is as mediocre as they come. He's 8-5 with a 3.92 ERA this season. Anderson has seen the Mariners twice this season giving up five runs and 11 hits in just over 12 innings. Seattle's lineup is having issues right now, but they are averaging over five runs per contest themselves. The A's bullpen can be beaten. I think this one should see a ton of runs. |
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06-28-19 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
06-20-19 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
Frankie Montas is 9-2 with a 2.85 ERA this season. He has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 14 starts. This will be the first time for Montas to face Tampa Bay. They can't be feeling good after getting swept in New York. I'm not a huge fan of the Rays offense outside of a few hitters. Charlie Morton is 5-0 with a 1.59 ERA in eight road starts with five unders. He faced Oakland back on 6/10 holding them to two hits and two walks in seven innings. Oakland's lineup doesn't scare me a ton either and they got healthy against Baltimore. I think these two pitchers are locked in early and it goes under. |
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06-19-19 | Tigers v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
One of the things I like to do is fade pitchers coming off the IL because they usually aren't ready for game speed and they are a bit rusty. Well in this game we have two candidates who are both coming off long stints away. Jordan Zimmermann last pitched on 4/25 in Boston against the Red Sox. Zimm made two minor league rehab starts giving up six runs and eight hits in just over seven innings among two levels. The Pirates lineup has some threats in it plus the DET bullpen is rather awful. Trevor Williams last pitched on 5/16 with him making one rehab start. The righty gave up two runs and four hits in three innings in AAA. Detroit's lineup is devoid of talent, but Pittsburgh's bullpen has an ERA approaching six at home. To me this one is simple with two bad bullpens getting a large chunk of innings. |
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06-13-19 | Yankees v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Ivan Nova is 3-5 with a 6.28 ERA in 13 starts with nine of them going over. Nova is 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in five home outings this season. He did hold the Yankees to one run and four hits in New York back in April. New York is hitting .263 on the road going over in 22 of 31 contests. The Sox bullpen has a 4.34 ERA this season with 10 losses and three blown saves. JA Happ is 6-3 with a 4.48 ERA in 13 starts. Happ gave up six runs and nine hits in four innings to the White Sox back in April. Chicago is averaging nearly five runs per game against left-handed starters. Their offense is capable of adding to this total. The Yankees bullpen has a 4.72 ERA on the road and has eight losses and nine blown saves. I think this one could see a ton of runs. |
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06-12-19 | Reds v. Indians UNDER 10 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Zach Plesac has been a pleasant surprise for the Indians this season. The starter has allowed four runs and 14 hits in three starts with 14 strikeouts to just three walks. Two of those outings were against the Yankees and Red Sox so I don't consider these to be joke numbers. The Reds are hitting .197 over their last seven games and .221 on the road. They've gone under in 40 of their 65 games overall including 24 of 37 on the road. Cleveland's bullpen is 10-3 with a 3.28 ERA at home although it is a concern that Brad Hand went two innings on Tuesday. Anthony DeSclafani is 2-3 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 starts. He's been a mixed bag this year although it's not good he's allowed 14 HRs. Cleveland's lineup really doesn't scare me a ton outside of a few hitters. They are hitting .228 at home and .223 against right-handed starters. The Reds bullpen has some live arms despite losing yesterday. I think this total is way too high for two teams that struggle to score. |
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06-08-19 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Framber Valdez is making his first start of the season after coming out of the bullpen. We'll see how many pitches he'll be able to throw as a starter which makes this more intriguing considering Houston's bullpen will have to cover more innings. The unit is pretty good but we could see some of their lesser arms. Valdez has allowed 10 runs and 22 hits in 26 innings with 21 strikeouts and 13 walks. Baltimore's offense isn't great, but they can contribute a couple of runs sometimes. Andrew Cashner has a 7.87 ERA in his last three starts and is putting a ton of runners on base with a 1.750 WHIP. Houston's lineup is really good and should be able to get to Cashner and a mediocre to poor Baltimore bullpen. Give me the over in this one. |
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06-06-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
It's amazing that Edwin Jackson is still in this league. He's 0-3 with a 13.22 ERA this season. Jackson gave up 10 runs in his last start in Colorado and has a 5.21 ERA against the Yankees. The righty shouldn't be in the league anymore and now faces a Yankees team that has the offense to make him pay. JA Happ is 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA. He's coming off a solid effort vs. the Red Sox. I think he's got very meh stuff so I'll fade him when I can. Toronto is averaging 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starters. The lineup is in decent form right now. The New York bullpen has been bad this series. Give me the over. |
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06-05-19 | Rays v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Spencer Turnbull is 0-2 with a 2.81 ERA in six home starts this season. He's coming off a winning outing in Atlanta where he held the Braves to two runs and five hits in six innings. He's got 64 strikeouts and 24 walks in just over 66 innings. Tampa's offense is putting up good numbers, but they've gone under in more then half of their road games. Charlie Morton is 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA in seven road starts. Morton has allowed eight runs and 11 hits over his last three starts and shouldn't struggle with the Tigers much. Detroit is hitting around .223 at home and .222 against right-handed starters. Tampa's bullpen is good, but the Tigers are not. Give me the under. |
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06-04-19 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 10 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
Glenn Sparkman has had one good start and one bad one this season. Sparkman is coming off a short game against the White Sox where he gave up four runs and three hits in one inning. Boston is hitting .287 in their last seven games averaging six runs per contest over that span. They are averaging over five runs per game against right-handed starters as well. KC's bullpen is 4-13 with a 4.73 ERA and nine blown saves in 15 opportunities. Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-3 with a 6.53 ERA in six road starts with five of them going over the total. Last year he gave up five runs and five hits in four innings at home to these guys. KC has gone over in 17 of their 28 home games where they are averaging 4.6 runs per contest. The Red Sox bullpen has seven losses and eight blown saves as a unit. These two have gone over in eight of their last 12 meetings including five of six in KC. |
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06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 8 | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Matt Strahm has a 2.53 ERA over his last nine outings and had 10 strikeouts against the Yankees last time out. He's got a solid mix of pitches and is facing the worst lineup in baseball. Miami is slightly better against lefties but to me it really doesn't matter. Trevor Richards had a 2.86 ERA in five May starts. He's struggled a bit away from home, but I think he's got good stuff and should be able to keep the Pads hitters in check. Hitters are batting .183 against his changeup too. Give me the game under. I think Miami got all their runs for the series last night. |
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06-01-19 | Tigers v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
Mike Soroka is 5-1 with a 1.07 ERA in eight starts for the Braves with six of those going under the total. He's been absolutely incredible this season with 46 strikeouts to 15 walks in just over 50 innings. The Tigers entered Friday night hitting .227 on the road and .218 against right-handed starters. They've gone under in more then half of their road games, because their offense is so brutal. Daniel Norris has a 3.68 ERA in four road starts. He's had two straight decent outings against the Orioles and Marlins, but he's not gone deep in those games. The Braves offense has hit a little bit of a funk although they are putting up some runs. Both bullpens scare me tremendously but maybe we get lucky and they both go deep into the starts. |
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05-30-19 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Manny Banuelos is facing the Indians for the third time in since May 9th. The southpaw has been rocked both times by the Tribe giving up 10 runs and 12 hits in just over eight innings. Last time out he lost to the Twins giving up five runs and five hits in four innings of work. Cleveland's offense isn't very good, but they should be able to get to the southpaw and Chicago's mediocre bullpen. Carlos Carrasco is 2-3 with a 5.61 ERA in five road starts. He's beaten Banuelos both times in those matchups earlier this month holding Chicago to eight hits in 12 innings. Carrasco is still prone to struggles on the road so maybe Chicago can give me a run or two. I think Cleveland gets a ton off Chicago and wins easily. |
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05-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
Kyle Freeland has been a mess for Colorado. He's 2-6 with a 6.71 ERA in 11 starts with seven of them going over the total. The southpaw has allowed 13 runs and 19 hits over his last three outings including getting torched at home by the Orioles last time out. Freeland gave up eight runs and nine hits in six innings to the Diamondbacks earlier this month. Arizona is hitting .277 against left-handed hitters going over 13 of 21 games. Colorado's bullpen has an ERA over five at home. Taylor Clarke is making his third major league start. He's given up five runs and 13 hits to the Giants and Rays the last two times. Colorado is putting up six runs per game at home and have slanted heavily to the over. It's a concern that it's an afternoon game, but I still think it's an over. |
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05-28-19 | Cubs v. Astros OVER 9 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Corbin Martin has allowed nine runs and 14 hits in his three starts. Martin has struggled to go deep in games with just over four innings per start. Last time out he gave up four runs and six hits in just over three innings at home to lowly Chicago. The Cubs are averaging over six runs per game on the road and have gone over in 16 of their 23 road games. The interleague play means they can add another bat to their already stout lineup. Jon Lester has allowed 12 runs and 17 hits in his last two starts against the Phillies and Nats. Houston is hitting almost .290 at home with just over five runs per game. The Cubs bullpen has an ERA over five on the road and has a 50% save percentage overall. To me, this one should be a slugfest. |
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05-27-19 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Classic case of struggling pitchers against struggling offenses on Monday. Ivan Nova is 3-4 with a 6.96 ERA in 10 starts for the White Sox with nine of them going over the total. He's got a 16.36 ERA at home this season as well. KC is hitting .254 in their last seven games averaging five runs per contest as well. They have gone over in 16 of their 25 day games. The Sox bullpen is okay but they could be covering a ton of innings. Homer Bailey is 4-5 with a 6.13 ERA in 10 starts for the Royals. He's allowed 12 runs and 16 hits over his last three starts spanning all of 11 innings. Chicago is hitting .257 at home this season and has some decent hitters, but if they can't find the spark against Bailey, then it could be a long year. KC's bullpen is 4-11 with a 4.96 ERA and nine blown saves in 14 opportunities. To me, this one should be a slugfest on Memorial Day. |
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05-25-19 | Rays v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Charlie Morton is 4-0 with a 2.65 ERA. He's 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in six road starts. Morton has very nasty stuff and is backed by a decent bullpen that has some live arms. Cleveland's lineup has a couple of solid hitters, but man, once you get down towards the bottom, it's awful. Before Friday they had scored just 26 runs over a seven game span with 10 of those coming in one game. Carlos Carrasco has a 1.59 ERA in his last three starts allowing three runs and 15 hits over 17 innings. As i've said in the past, Tampa's lineup doesn't scare me that much either although there is some young talent. Cleveland's bullpen is one of it's strengths as a team. Give me the under in this one as I just don't see this one having a lot of runs. |
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05-24-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9 | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Wade LeBlanc has a 7.36 ERA allowing 17 runs and 28 hits in just over 18 innings of work. He's just not very good as a pitcher. Oakland is averaging seven runs per game over their last seven contests. The lineup is really inconsistent so that scares me but LeBlanc is backed by a bullpen with a 6.21 ERA on the road. That unit has eight losses and eight blown saves. Daniel Mengden is making his third start of the year. He's allowed five runs and eight hits in just over 12 innings. Seattle has gone over in 20 of their 28 road games averaging nearly six runs per contest. Oakland's bullpen has nine losses and 10 blown saves. They actually have a save percentage below 50%. These two have gone over in three of their four meetings. Give me the over. |
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05-23-19 | Marlins v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Matt Boyd is 4-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 starts for the Tigers with six of them going under the total. Boyd has a 3.47 ERA in six home starts and he's got 73 strikeouts to just 13 walks in just over 60 innings. The Marlins lineup is pretty putrid and is still struggling to get to 3 runs per game. They are hitting .164 in day games averaging 1.7 runs per contest with 11 unders in 12 day games. Boyd is averaging just over six innings per start, but I think he can get deeper against this weak lineup. Trevor Richards is 1-5 with a 4.44 ERA in nine outings for the Fish. He's coming off a win at home against the Mets and is looking for his first road start. The Tigers lineup is pretty bad too as they are hitting around .160 in their last eight games. Outside of Cabrera and Castellanos, not many players scare me. The Marlins bullpen has a high ERA but not a ton of blown saves. To me, this one is a low scoring game with two pitchers who should find some success. |
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05-23-19 | Rockies v. Pirates UNDER 9 | 6-14 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Jordan Lyles is 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA in eight starts with five of them going under the total. Lyles has allowed just three runs and 11 hits in his last three starts. Colorado's lineup is still really inconsistent away from home with a batting average around .220. They are averaging just over four runs per contest, but with the early game after a late one on a getaway day, we may get a reduced lineup. The Pirates pen scares me terribly, but I think Lyles can give me seven strong. Antonio Senzatela is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA away from Coors Field. He's got to keep the walks down so he can get deeper in games. Senzatela held the Phillies to two runs and five hits in five innings, but also walked four. Pittsburgh's lineup doesn't scare me a ton outside of a few hitters. Colorado's bullpen has a nice ERA on the road and should be able to hold a late lead if they have one. Give me the under in this one. |
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05-22-19 | Marlins v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
I was wrong on the Tigers on Tuesday, but I'm going back to the well to take the under in this game. Both of these offenses are hot garbage and the 5-4 score from yesterday won't happen again. Daniel Norris is 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA in six starts. The southpaw is coming off a rough outing against the A's, but the Marlins don't have a ton of threats. Miami is hitting .248 against left-handed starters and are averaging just over two runs per contest on the road. They've gone under in 13 of their 19 road games overall. Detroit's bullpen lost Tuesday's game, but there are some decent arms there. Same with Miami who has ugly numbers, but they also have some decent pitchers in the pen. Jose Urena is 1-6 with a 4.27 ERA in nine starts. He's given up eight runs in his last three starts and has looked pretty good in his last two outings. Detroit is hitting worse then .180 over their last eight games. Their offense just doesn't have a ton of threats. Do I love the pitchers in this game? No, but I think the offenses are just that bad. Give me the under. |
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05-22-19 | A's v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Frankie Montas is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in nine starts with four of them going under. He's been fantastic giving up 22 runs and 50 hits in 54 innings with 52 strikeouts and 11 walks. Montas is coming off a great win at Detroit with 10 K's and two runs allowed in a near complete game. The righty held the Indians to two runs and eight hits at home back on 5/10 striking out seven while walking one over six innings. Cleveland's offense is very inconsistent and are hitting around .225 as a unit. They've gone under in 27 of their 47 contests overall. Now Oakland's bullpen isn't great, but hopefully they won't have to cover a ton of innings. Jefry Rodriguez is coming off a losing effort at home against the O's which is a concern but overall he's allowed 12 runs and 28 hits in just over 31 innings. He's starting to use his offspeed stuff more and it's helping him. Oakland is another lineup that has been up and down. Khris Davis was placed on the IL and he can be one of their better hitters. The Indians bullpen has been pretty good for the most part and has held a bunch of leads with 13 saves in 16 chances. Day game after a "night" game so we may see some bench guys. Give me the under in this one. |
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05-19-19 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Reynaldo Lopez is 3-4 with a 5.58 ERA in nine starts for the White Sox. He's coming off a pair of solid outings against the Indians in which he held them to five runs and 11 hits in just over 13 innings of work. Lopez has 53 K's in just 50 innings and is facing a Jays lineup that just doesn't scare you a ton right now. They are 11-22 against right-handed starters hitting just .214 in those games. They have gone under in seven of their last 11. Chicago's bullpen has just two blown saves this season and a 3.72 ERA at home. Trent Thornton has a 3.13 ERA in four road starts with three of those going under. He's pitched well in San Fran and Texas in his last two outings away from home. The White Sox have scored just 10 runs over their last four contests and have gone under in eight of their last 11. Toronto's bullpen is 6-5 with a 2.44 ERA on the road and seven saves in eight chances. I think this one is an under. |
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05-19-19 | Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 10 | 5-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
I realize the numbers don't look right here, but I'm going to take my chances on the under here. Jerad Eickhoff is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in five starts with all five of them going under the total. He had a rough one last time out against the Brewers giving up five runs and eight hits in four innings, but for the most part he's been solid. Colorado continues to be a poor lineup outside of Coors Field. Entering Saturday's contest they were hitting .215 away from home. The Phillies bullpen has 11 saves in 14 opportunities. Kyle Freeland has struggled a bit this season and has ugly numbers, but he's a better pitcher on the road. He's got 30 of his 44 K's outside of Coors. The Phillies are hitting around .210 in day games and still are looking for more consistent bats other then Jean Segura. Bryce Harper is starting to do a little better, but we'll see how the rest of the lineup does. Colorado's bullpen has a sub 2.50 ERA on the road. I think this one is an under. |
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05-18-19 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Blake Snell is 3-4 with a 3.56 ERA and a WHIP of 0.977 in eight starts this season with four of them going under the total. Snell gave up two runs and four hits in just over five innings to these Yankees last time out at home striking out 12 while walking only two. Snell's pitched alright in his last two starts in the Bronx which came last year holding New York to four runs and seven hits in 10 innings. The Yankee offense just isn't what it's supposed to be right now with all of the injuries. Masahiro Tanaka is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA in nine starts with five of them going under the total. Tanaka has a 3.03 ERA in five home outings at home. The righty beat the Rays in Tampa last time out holding them to one run and five hits in seven innings. They have gone under in 12 of their 20 day games and could be sitting some players in the day after a night game. I think this one is an under early on. |
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05-17-19 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Frankie Montas is 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA in eight starts with half of them going under the total. The righty has allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts with 16 strikeouts to just three walks. The Tigers have scored just nine runs over their last four games and are struggling to get much going offensively. They are hitting around .213 against right-handed starters going under in 22 of 35 contests. Oakland's bullpen is pretty awful which is a worry, but I think they can do some work against Detroit. Daniel Norris is 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA in five starts for Detroit. He's allowed just six runs and 16 hits over his last three starts. The southpaw is facing an Oakland team that broke out on Thursday as they put up 17 runs. That effort was one less then what they had scored over their previous six games. Detroit's bullpen also isn't great, but maybe we get lucky and Norris covers plenty of innings. To me, I think nine is a little much so give me the under. |
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05-17-19 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
CC Sabathia has allowed four runs and nine hits in three starts at home this season. Last time out he saw these Rays giving up two runs and three hits in five innings of work. The lefty has been rather effective in his older age despite not going deep in ballgames. Sabathia has a career 3.67 ERA and a WHIP of 1.260 in 49 career starts against Tampa. The Rays have gone under in 10 of their 12 games against left-handed starters hitting .226 in those games. The Yankees bullpen is 5-2 with a 3.47 ERA at home with seven saves in eight chances. Ryne Stanek gets the call as the road team does an opener once again. Stanek faced the Yankees back on May 11th giving up one hit in two innings. New York is still without Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Troy Tulowitzki and Giancarlo Stanton so there's some talent in the lineup, but not enough in my mind. Tampa's bullpen is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA on the road with eight saves in nine chances. We don't often see a total this high in Tampa games because of how well their pitching is holding up. I'll take my chances on the under here. |
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05-16-19 | Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Eric Lauer is 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA in eight starts for San Diego. The southpaw is coming off getting roughed up in Colorado, but before that had two solid outings vs. the Dodgers and Nationals. He's got a 3.43 ERA in four home starts this season. Lauer is facing a Pittsburgh team averaging 2.8 runs against left-handed starters while hitting .227 against them. I just don't think it's that strong of a lineup. San Diego's bullpen is alright with 18 saves in 27 chances. Trevor Williams is 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA in five road starts. He's coming off a great outing holding the Cardinals to one run and nine hits in seven innings. San Diego is hitting .225 at home where they've gone under in 14 of their last 21. Pittsburgh's bullpen is 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA on the road and eight saves in 11 chances. Give me the under in this one. |
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05-15-19 | Rays v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay is going with a bullpen day started off by Ryne Stanek who has allowed three runs and nine hits in 15 innings or so. He's got 17 strikeouts to just two walks as well so the first two or three innings are taken care of. The Rays bullpen as a whole is 10-8 with a 3.32 ERA and they have just three blown saves in 16 chances. Miami's offense is so below average it's ridiculous right now. They've scored just eight runs in their last six games and have put up two runs or less nine times in their last 11 contests. Jose Urena is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA in eight starts. He's not striking enough guys out, but he's also not getting a ton of run support when he is pitching well. I'm not a firm believer in the Rays offense as a whole. They are putting up decent numbers as a unit, but I think I can take a chance here. Miami's bullpen is not great with a 3-10 record and an ERA over five. Still, they've got a couple of decent arms in there so I'll hope they get used here. Give me the under. |
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05-12-19 | White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Aaron Sanchez is 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA in eight starts for Toronto with five of them going under the total. Sanchez has a 1.59 ERA in three home outings although he needs to cut down on the walks. The righty is coming off a home effort where he held the Twins to three runs and six hits in seven innings of work. Sanchez needs to also learn how to go deeper in games and that will come with less walks. The Sox have scored just 15 runs over their last five games with seven of those coming on Saturday. They've scored three runs or less in seven of their last nine. Lucas Giolito is in good form right now having allowed three runs and 10 hits over his last three starts. He's cut down on the walks which has been a big help to him as well. Toronto has scored 28 runs over their last 12 contests so the offense has struggled. Both of these bullpens are a little scary but the offenses are not. I think the under is worth a look here. |
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05-07-19 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Griffin Canning is making his second start on Tuesday and it's against the light hitting Tigers. Canning gave up three runs and four hits in just over four innings at home against Toronto. He had six strikeouts to just one walk in the outing as well. Detroit is averaging 3.5 runs per game overall and 3.1 runs per contest against righties. The Angels have just one blown save in nine chances. Daniel Norris has allowed five runs and 17 hits in 15 innings as Tigers starter. He's got 15 strikeouts to just four walks as well. The Angels are 4-12 on the road where they are averaging 3.3 runs per contest. They are 2-9 vs. left-handed starters and are averaging 2.9 runs per contest against them. Detroit's bullpen has a rough ERA, but only four losses and six blown saves this season. Neither offense scares me and I think we've got a shot with the number being nine. Give me the under. |
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05-05-19 | Giants v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Luis Castillo has been fantastic for the Reds. He's allowed seven runs and 26 hits in just over 43 innings of work. The righty has gone under in six of his seven starts and is usually good for six innings of work. He faced the Giants at home last August and held them to one earned run and six hits in just over six innings. San Fran's lineup for the most part does not scare me. They are hitting .200 in 14 day games with nine of them going under. Cincy's bullpen does scare me, but maybe we get a good effort on Sunday. Jeff Samardzija is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA in six starts. He's allowed 10 runs and 24 hits in 32 innings of work. The righty is facing a Reds team that has found their bats this series which was finally expected, but the team has gone under in 23 of their 33 contests overall. San Fran's bullpen is pretty good too so I expect this one to be an under on a Sunday afternoon. |
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05-04-19 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Pardon me if I'm not all of a sudden a believer in Manny Banuelos because he had two starts against the Orioles. The southpaw allowed two runs and 10 hits in just over nine innings of work against them. Boston has scored four runs or more in five straight games as the offense has begun to pick up. The Chicago bullpen doesn't scare me much either as I think Boston can score on them too. Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 6.16 ERA in six starts with five overs. On the road he has allowed 16 runs and 23 hits in just over 13 innings of work. Chicago's lineup cooled off a little bit on Friday, but they are putting up good numbers. They are hitting over .300 in night games. Boston's bullpen has some shaky arms. Give me the over in this one. |
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05-03-19 | Giants v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | 12-11 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Sonny Gray continues to look for his first win of the season as the Reds host the Giants. Gray is 0-4 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts. The righty has 36 strikeouts to just eight walks while allowing just one homer all season. Gray is facing a Giants lineup that is averaging 3.2 runs per game on the road and has gone under in 10 of their 15 games outside of San Fran. San Francisco scored just 20 runs over their last six game homestand. The Reds bullpen is 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA at home this season. Tyler Beede is making his first start for the Giants this season. He went 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA in five triple-A starts earlier this season. Beede allowed six runs and 14 hits in 22.2 innings. Cincy has gone under in 23 of their 31 contests and nine of 11 at home. Their offense has more talent then we think, but it's struggled all year long. They are hitting .222 at home and are coming off getting shut out by Noah Syndergaard. San Fran's bullpen is 5-3 with a 3.23 ERA. I think this one is an under. |
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05-02-19 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
This is the classic case of the better road team getting an extra chance to bat against a mediocre pitching staff. Lucas Giolito has allowed 13 runs and 15 hits in just over 18 innings. He's shown flashes of the control issues that have plagued him in the past with nine walks in his last 12 innings pitched. Boston's lineup has been disappointing this year but they are averaging six runs per contest over their last seven. The White Sox bullpen has an ERA of 4.02 and was heavily used in the doubleheader on Wednesday. David Price has made three starts on the road and has a 5.29 ERA in those games. He's putting up good numbers so we may not get a ton from the White Sox. The White Sox are averaging over five runs per game and are hitting .279 against left-handed starters. Boston's bullpen has a 4.44 ERA. I think this one is an over. |
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05-01-19 | Astros v. Twins OVER 9 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Martin Perez is putting up fantastic numbers as a starter, but pardon me if I'm not a believer. He's gone against the Orioles twice and Toronto before they added some punch to the lineup. The southpaw has been an awful pitcher and I'll bet this over like he is. Houston is 6-1 against left-handed starters hitting .300 against them while averaging five runs per contest. Minnesota's bullpen has some good numbers although they are giving up plenty of runs. Collin McHugh is 3-2 with a 4.78 ERA in six starts. He's allowed 13 runs and 14 hits over his last three starts. McHugh has not seen the Twins since 2016. Minnesota's lineup has been very hot and cold, but the potential is there for an offensive explosion. Houston's bullpen is putting up good numbers. I think these starters though will give up plenty of runs though. Give me the over. |
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05-01-19 | Tigers v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 3-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Aaron Nola has had a rough start to his season although he's coming off a solid start vs. Miami. He held the punchless Marlins to one run and seven hits in just over six innings. The Tigers aren't very good averaging around three runs per game on the road. They are doing even worse in interleague play so I think Nola can do some work here. Daniel Norris gets the call for the Tigers. He's making his third start, first one against anyone not named the White Sox. He's pitched one good start and one bad one so far. Philly is hitting .200 against left-handed starters in six games against them. This lineup is in a bit of a malaise as they struggle to put up runs consistently. Detroit's bullpen has some ugly numbers so hopefully Norris can go a little deeper. I think this one is an under on Wednesday. |
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04-30-19 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Rick Porcello has been pretty bad for the Red Sox this season. The righty is 1-3 with a 7.43 ERA and a WHIP of 2.130. He's allowed 24 runs and 34 hits in 23 innings with 15 walks and just 20 strikeouts. Almost a year ago Porcello gave up five runs and nine hits at home to the A's. Oakland is averaging almost six runs per game on the road where they've gone over in 10 of 15. Boston's bullpen has an ERA over five at home. Aaron Brooks is 2-2 with a 5.33 ERA in five starts. He's got decent stuff, but he's allowed 11 runs and 15 hits over his last three starts. Brooks faced the Red Sox on April 1st in Oakland holding them to two hits and a walk in six innings. Boston's lineup has scored seven runs or more in three of their last five. Oakland's bullpen also has it's shaky arms. I think this one is a slugfest in Boston. |
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04-29-19 | Rays v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
It's an opener day for the Rays who will be using their bullpen for Monday's contest against the Royals. Ryan Stanek just faced them and will start things off. Tampa's bullpen as a whole is 6-7 with a 3.84 ERA on the year. Kansas City has gone over in 11 of their 15 home games where they hit .261 with 5.2 runs per contest. The Royals should be able to hold their own in this one offensively. Brad Keller is facing the Rays for the second straight game. He gave up five runs and seven hits in just over six innings in that one. Tampa Bay is hitting .278 away from home while averaging nearly six runs per contest. The Royals bullpen has blown eight of 12 save chances and is 3-8 with a 5.23 ERA overall. These two played two overs in Tampa Bay last week and that's hard to do in that building. I think this one is an over too. |
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04-27-19 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 9-12 | Loss | -111 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Jake Arrieta is 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in five starts. He's allowed 11 runs and 26 hits in 34 innings of work. Arrieta has been very efficient as of late and has gone deeper in games averaging nearly seven innings per outing. He beat the Fish in Miami back on 4/12 holding them to one run and five hits in seven innings. Overall the righty is 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA and a WHIP of 1.036 against Miami. The Marlin offense is absolutely putrid and has gone under in all but one of their road games. The lineup is filled with over the hill veterans and guys who just aren't ready. The Philly bullpen is bad, but hopefully they won't be needed for long. Trevor Richards is 0-3 with a 3.72 ERA in five starts for the road team. He's got to cut down on the walks with 16 of them in 29 innings. The righty still has nasty stuff that he just has to harness a bit. Richards had two good starts against Philly last year over his last three outings. The Phillies lineup is in a bit of a rut as of late and it coincides with the loss of Jean Segura who could be back for this one. Since 4/17, they've scored three runs or less seven times. Miami has some decent arms in the bullpen. I think this one is an under and hope it's like a 5-1 game. |
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04-27-19 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
The Cardinals saw their five game win streak end on Friday night. During this recent stretch their offense has been incredible. They had scored four runs or more in 10 straight before the dud Friday. Tyler Mahle is 0-2 with a 3.52 ERA in four starts although he has allowed eight runs and 18 hits in his last two outings out West. He'll be opposed by Dakota Hudson coming off his first win of the season. Hudson still has allowed 13 runs and 26 hits in just over 17 innings of work. Hudson has had issues with lefty hitters which the Reds have plenty of. Cincy's offense has under-performed although they've put up four runs or more in five of their last eight games. Both bullpens have their leaky arms and their good ones. I think this one is an over though. |
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04-26-19 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 102 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm going to continue to take unders with the Marlins offense which is absolutely brutal. Miami is averaging 1.8 runs per contest on the road and are hitting .220 overall. Miami has gone over the total just once in nine games away from home. Over their last 12 games, the Fish have scored just 34 runs with 19 of those coming in two contests. Jerad Eickhoff is making his second start for the home team. He showed some flashes with eight strikeouts of Rockies hitters in six innings and only gave up four runs in Coors Field. He's got good stuff I think. The problem once again could be the bullpen who blew Thursday's game in Philly. Jose Urena has an ugly 5.40 ERA, but he's got very good stuff. He also had a rough start to his 2019 campaign. Urena held the Phillies to one run and seven hits in seven innings at home back on 4/14. The Phillies lineup has gone in the tank ever since Jean Segura went down. Philly has scored just 25 runs over their last nine contests. Miami's bullpen did it's part in holding the Phils down on Thursday and has some decent arms. Quite frankly, I'm going to continue to take unders in Marlins games especially when it gets this high. The first five innings bet may be better, but I also like the game total too. |
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04-25-19 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Aaron Nola has been pretty bad so far this year, but I think he figures things out against the Marlins. Nola has allowed 20 runs and 30 hits in 25 innings of work. The righty has 28 strikeouts to just 12 walks. He pitched alright in his last outing in Colorado although he didn't go very deep. Nola's facing a Marlins team hitting .180 on the road going under in seven of their eight away from Miami. They are averaging 2.7 runs per contest overall. Caleb Smith is seeing the Phillies for the second time this season. He picked up a win against them on 4/13 giving up one hit and three walks in six innings. The southpaw has allowed six runs and 14 hits in 23 innings of work. The Phillies have lost five of their last seven and have scored just 21 runs over that span. They are hitting just .236 over their last seven games with five of those going under the total. Both bullpens scare me quite a bit so with this low total, I'm hoping both starters go deep so we only see good arms the last few innings. I think this one is an under. |
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04-23-19 | Braves v. Reds UNDER 9 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Sonny Gray hasn't won a game yet, but is pitching fantastically for the Reds. He's allowed seven runs and 12 hits in just over 19 innings of work. The righty has 22 strikeouts to just six walks. He lost to the Braves back in 2017 holding them to one run and two hits in eight innings. Atlanta's lineup is very tough and has quite a bit of depth. They are also coming off a series with three overs in Cleveland. Cincy has gone under in seven straight because of solid pitching and poor hitting. The Reds bullpen has a 2.01 ERA at home. Kevin Gausman has also pitched well for Atlanta giving up six runs and nine hits in three starts. He's also got 22 strikeouts to just six walks. Cincy is hitting .199 against right-handed starters and .198 overall. Atlanta's bullpen scares me so let's hope Gausman can go deep in the ballgame to help out. I think this one is an under tho with two young solid pitchers. |
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04-21-19 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Can you tell me who is still left in the Yankees lineup? Aaron Judge joined Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, Troy Tulowitzki and Giancarlo Stanton on the IL and I just don't know who is left in there to scare pitchers. Jorge Lopez is 0-4 with a 4.30 ERA in four starts for the Royals. He's got some decent stuff and had 10 strikeouts in his last outing against the White Sox. KC's bullpen is pretty bad, but once again who will make them pay. James Paxton is 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA. He's got 31 strikeouts to just seven walks in 23 innings. The southpaw held the Royals to two runs and eight hits in 14 innings in 2018. KC is hitting just .209 against left-handed starters and have gone under in the majority of their road games. New York's bullpen should be able to lock down a late lead. Give me the under in this one. |
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04-21-19 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9 | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Dylan Bundy has been absolutely awful this season giving up 15 runs and 18 hits in four starts. Bundy has shown some strikeout stuff, but he's also given up seven homers this season as well. He's 0-3 with a 5.24 ERA in four stats against Minnesota. The Twins are putting up big numbers offensively especially away from home. It's a bit of a worry that some of their studs won't play on Sunday so please check the lineup before taking this. They are so hot though which maybe means they won't take them out. Baltimore's bullpen has an ERA over six this season so they won't be much help. I like fading Kyle Gibson because he's ridiculously mediocre. The righty has allowed 13 runs and 18 hits in just over 14 innings of work. He doesn't really have strikeout stuff. Not going to lie, Baltimore's lineup isn't that great, but they've gone over in every game at home this year. Minnesota's bullpen allows a lot of runs. I think this one goes over the total. |
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04-20-19 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
We took the Giants under on Friday night and will try once again for it here. Jameson Taillon is 0-2, but has allowed just eight runs and 20 hits in 21 innings. The righty has 17 strikeouts to just five walks and has pitched well despite being winless. Taillon shut down the Giants for three innings at home last year. San Fran's offense doesn't scare me much. They are hitting .188 in day games and .187 against right-handed starters. Derek Holland isn't great, but he's pitched decently this year. If he can keep the walks down, then Holland should be able to do some work. He's allowed 10 runs and 16 hits in 22 innings of work. Pittsburgh's lineup is decent, but not great. Starling Marte won't be in the lineup after getting hurt on Friday. I think they can score a few runs because Taillon will hold down SF. Both bullpens have some solid arms so I think they can hold a lead. Give me the under in this one. |
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04-18-19 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Michael Pineda has been very good so far this season for Minnesota. He's allowed just five runs and 13 hits in 15 innings of work. The righty has 15 strikeouts to just two walks over that span. Toronto is hitting around .210 as a team and doesn't have a lineup that scares me that much at all. It's also the getaway day so we could see some lesser lineups. Clay Buchholz is making his second start of the year. He held the Rays to one run and six hits in six innings. Minnesota's lineup has gone under in five of eight day games and doesn't have a ton of threats either. Both bullpens scare me so let's hope for a lower scoring game so that way both pens are minimized. I think the under is worth a look here. |
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04-17-19 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Texas played a rare under at home on Tuesday which gives them now seven overs to three unders. The reasons why this is happening is because the Rangers are allowing 6.2 runs per game at home while putting up 6.7. Lance Lynn got shelled in his first start there giving up seven runs and 10 hits in just over five innings back on 3/31. He lost to the Angels at their place the next time out, but I don't think he's got good enough stuff for that park. The Angels lineup is not good. Anyone who allows Mike Minor to throw a complete game shutout at home can't be very good. The thing is that they have the capability to score. They put up seven on the Rangers back on Monday. Matt Harvey was beaten up by these Rangers at home on 4/4 giving up eight runs and 10 hits in four innings. He's given up 16 runs and 21 hits in three starts for the Angels. Texas' lineup is outperforming expectations right now. Neither bullpen scares me all that much. I think this one is an absolute slugfest. |
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04-16-19 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Jose Quintana has had one great outing and one awful one so far this year. He's allowed eight runs and 12 hits in 10 innings of work. Quintana got rocked last year in Miami giving up six runs and six hits in six innings. The Marlins lineup is terrible, but they've had some success against left-handed starters. They are averaging over four runs per contest in five games against them. The Cubs bullpen has just one save and an ERA over nine on the road. Pablo Lopez is 1-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three starts. He's been good the first time around, but after that it gets ugly. Lopez has allowed 11 runs and 19 hits in 15 innings of work. The Cubs have scored five runs or more in three straight games. The Marlins bullpen isn't very good either. To me, this one should be an over with the road team doing a lot of the heavy lifting. |
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04-16-19 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 8 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Stephen Strasburg has had two bad outings sandwiched around a victory over the Mets. The ace has 20 strikeouts and 7 walks in just over 16 innings of work. The righty should be able to have his way with an awful Giants lineup. Right now San Fran is hitting .199 as a unit putting up just 2.8 runs per contest. In an ideal world, he goes seven innings and minimizes that awful bullpen. Dereck Rodriguez has allowed eight runs and 15 hits in just over 17 innings. He has just one walk and 12 strikeouts this season. Washington is putting up very good offensive numbers although they are averaging just 4.2 runs at home. The Giants bullpen has a 1.77 ERA this season with three losses and two blown saves. These two have played seven unders in their last 11 contests. I think this one is an under too. |
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04-15-19 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
It's rare to see two starters with ERAs over 10, but we do have one in this matchup. Heath Fillmyer gave up five runs and six hits in three innings to the Mariners. He saw Chicago last August giving up six runs and seven hits in three innings in that one. The White Sox are coming off a series win in New York and have gone over in the majority of their games. The Royals bullpen entered Sunday with an ERA near seven and an 0-6 record. Ervin Santana got shelled by Tampa Bay in his first start giving up seven runs and seven hits in just over three innings. He didn't look good against them last year. I've been surprised by the production from this Royals lineup so far. They are averaging nearly five runs per contest as a group. The Sox bullpen isn't very good either. This one could see a lot of runs. |
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04-14-19 | A's v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Adrian Sampson is making his first start of the year for the Rangers as they host the A's. Sampson has allowed two runs and eight hits in just under 10 innings as a reliever. He was 0-3 with a 3.57 ERA in four September starts for Texas last year. Oakland has scored four runs or more in six straight and have gone over in six straight as well. The A's don't have a ton of great names in the lineup, but they have been hot as of late and the Arlington atmosphere should help. The Rangers bullpen has an ERA around 4.50 on the season. Brett Anderson gets the call now that Saturday's game was rained out. Anderson is 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts. He beat the Rangers twice in 2018 pitching well in both games against them. Texas' lineup is performing well this season so far despite having lost some talent in the offseason. I think this one is an over with Oakland doing a lot of the heavy lifting. |
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04-14-19 | Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
Marcus Stroman continues to look for his first win of the year, but it's not because of him. The ace has allowed just five runs and 17 hits in 19 innings of work. He's got 18 strikeouts to just six walks over that span as well. Stroman saw the Rays twice last year with one good start and another bad one. Still, I think he's bounced back from a bad 2018 campaign. Tampa's hot offense was cooled off on Saturday with only one run scored. They had scored 30 over their previous three, but I still don't love their lineup. It's the final game of a long road trip so maybe we see some bench guys in the lineup. Charlie Morton is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts. The righty has 21 strikeouts to just seven walks. He faced the Jays once last year striking out 13 in seven innings while holding them to just four hits. Toronto's lineup doesn't scare me in the least. They had a good series in Boston, but I'm willing to go against them and take the under whenever I can. This will be one of those situations. |
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04-12-19 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 9 | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Two of the hottest teams in baseball play in Seattle as the Mariners host the Astros. Houston has won six in a row scoring 36 runs over that span. They swept the A's and Yankees in those series. Now they face Wade LeBlanc who has allowed eight runs and 13 hits in two starts. He has mediocre stuff. LeBlanc is 1-1 with a 5.65 ERA in six career starts against the Astros. Houston is hitting .315 in their last seven games and .280 overall. He'll be opposed by Wade Miley who has allowed three runs and 12 hits in just over 11 innings. Seattle has gone over in 11 of their 14 games because they are hitting .295 while averaging nearly eight runs per contest. These two offenses should go to town on the mediocre pitchers they see. |
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04-12-19 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 9-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Originally I looked at the over at 7.5, but now at 8.5, I'm looking at the under. The Marlins have gone under in five of their last six and are coming off a road trip of six games where they scored eight runs overall. I'm not in love with Jake Arrieta, but this lineup is so bad that I think he'll be able to do some work. Arrieta is putting on too many runners, but he's dodging the bullets so far. Sandy Alcantara has had one good start and one bad one. His better start was at home against the Rockies in which he struck out six over eight innings. Alcantara beat a lesser Phillies team at home last September. Philly has a great lineup, but maybe they struggle with the starter the first time around. Give me the under. I think the Phillies could win this 8-0 and we still win. |
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04-11-19 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
A pair of young starters are on the mound early Thursday. Spencer Turnbull is coming off a solid outing in which he allowed three runs and six hits in six innings to the Royals while striking out 10. He'll face an Indians lineup that has been pretty awful. Entering Wednesday's game, the Tribe were hitting .189 as a group. Jose Ramirez is the only star and he looks lost at the plate. Detroit's bullpen is 6-0 with eight saves in nine opportunities. Shane Bieber has allowed two runs and two hits in six innings. He struck out nine while walking two in his first start. Detroit isn't exactly hitting either. They were hitting .185 entering Wednesday's game. Cleveland's bullpen is not that bad either. These two have played 11 unders in their last 21 meetings in Detroit. I think this one sees very few runs. |
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04-11-19 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
The Marlins offense has been pretty bad this season. They've gone under in four of their last five as they've scored eight runs over that span. There's just not a ton of talent in this lineup outside of some over the hill veteran types. Sonny Gray has had one good start and one bad start this season with the difference being him walking four guys in just over two innings at home and struck out seven over six innings or so. The Reds bullpen is not so bad and they've been dying to use some of their better arms in a potential win situation. Gray is opposed by Pablo Lopez who has not been terrible this season despite the 6.10 ERA. He has 12 strikeouts to just one walk in just over 10 innings. It's a worry that the Marlins bullpen isn't great but the Reds aren't exactly great offensively. They've gone under in eight of their 11 contests because of it. It's also a day game after a night game so I think we see some regulars sit. I think this one is an under played at a good pace. |