Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-19 | Oral Roberts v. Creighton OVER 152 | 60-72 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Creighton is back home to start a stretch of four home games as they host Oral Roberts. This team is coming off a 1-1 trip to Vegas in which they beat Texas Tech and lost to San Diego State by 31. The Blue Jays offense is one of the most efficient in the country and is shooting 53.2% from two point land and 38.2% from long range. Creighton's defense is pretty bad too allowing teams to shoot 53% from up close. They've allowed 70 or more to five opponents this season. Marcus Zegarowski and Ty-Shon Alexander are two of the better players on the team. Oral Roberts has an adjusted tempo of 75 possessions which is 21st in the country. Teams are taking just 15 secs to get a shot up on ORU. In games against steps up in competition, the Golden Eagles lost 80-75 at Oklahoma State and 87-74 at Iowa. ORU has gone over in 33 of their last 52 as an underdog and 21 of their last 36 road games. I think this one is an over too. |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars OVER 47 | 28-11 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm really having a hard time buying Jameis Winston in this one. Tampa has won two of their last three, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. The Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game and almost 300 yards through the air per contest. Tampa Bay is 3-8 against the spread this season and I'm just not getting this line move. Jacksonville is a very hard team to back right now as they've lost three straight. The last two weeks Nick Foles has thrown it a bunch of times and they've lost track of Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense has been getting crushed by the run and has been very good against the pass. Since September 29th, they've allowed just two QBs to throw over 250 yards. The Bucs have covered just eight of their last 22 road games. I think this one is a bit extreme so give me the value with the home team. |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
The Colts have lost three of their last four as they host the Titans on Sunday. Indy will be without Marlon Mack once again as well as T.Y. Hilton which puts a little more pressure on the ground game they want to try and rev up. This team has scored less then 20 points four times in their last seven games as they ask Jacoby Brissett to do less on offense. The Colts defense consistently continues to come up big. It's hard to run on this team which could make things difficult on Derrick Henry. Since allowing 188 yards on the ground to the Raiders, the Colts have held every team to under 115 rushing yards. Tennessee's offense is hot, but they were home and facing some terrible defenses. Ryan Tannehill has done some great stuff for this side of the ball, but I think they struggle here. The Titans defense is very good against the run and I think both sides have mediocre skill position guys. Way back on September 15th these two teams played in Tennessee with the Colts winning 19-17, but Mariota was under center and Mack and Hilton played. I think this one is a field position game and an under on Sunday. |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
The line has gone up two points in the Bills/Cowboys game and I think it gives us some value on the under. Buffalo wants to run the ball ideally and that's going to grind some clock, because Josh Allen doesn't have a ton of weapons and he's a little jittery still in the pocket. This team has gone under in three of their last four because the defense has been solid. They've held each of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. Now, outside of Cleveland, they held down Washington, Miami and Denver who don't exactly have a ton of weapons. Buffalo has tightened up their run defense and of course have a stout secondary with Tre'davious White who will shadow Amari Cooper. The Cowboys offense is very capable of scoring a ton of points, but they are coming off a disappointing effort in New England. The run game just hasn't been the same the last three weeks so I can see them grinding it out with Zeke. Dallas' defense is weaker without Leighton Vander Esch, but once again, I'm not a huge believer in Buffalo's O. The Bills have gone under in 16 of their last 22 road games including 14 of their last 18 as a road underdog. They've gone under in eight of 11 overall this year. Give me the under here. |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 38.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Thanksgiving in Detroit as the Lions host the Bears. The two teams played just a few weeks ago when we had the under in a 20-13 Chicago home win. Since then the Bears have played two more unders as they lost 17-7 to the Rams and beat the Giants 19-14. Mitch Trubisky still hasn't figured out this offense and he most likely won't have Taylor Gabriel. The offense has scored over 20 points just twice the last two months. Defensively Chicago has been it's usual fantastic self. Since giving up 36 at home to the Saints, Chicago has allowed 83 points over the last five weeks. I just don't know how much the Lions will get going offensively against Khalil Mack especially if Jeff Driskel is not 100%. David Blough is his backup and that means that he'll be under siege against that pass rush. The Lions defense scares me because they've been getting crushed lately, but once again, can Mitch Trubisky take advantage. Last year this game in Detroit was a 23-16 game which of course goes over this number, but still, it was low scoring and ugly. Give me the under in this one. |
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11-26-19 | Longwood v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 125 | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
11-26-19 | Grambling State v. Portland State OVER 153.5 | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Portland State and Grambling take the court in Santa Barbara on Tuesday. The Vikings are 2-3 on the year, and are the 39th quickest team in the country. This team has scored 70 or more in every game and has allowed 75 or more to every division one squad. They play very little defense giving up 76 to San Jose State and 82 to Portland. Grambling State is 3-2 with wins over 2 lower level schools and one against SE Louisiana 81-70 on the road. They then followed that up with a 83-76 loss at San Jose St and a 80-58 loss at Oregon State. This team plays even less defense then PSU does. I think this one should see plenty of points on Tuesday. |
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Seattle University OVER 138.5 | 55-59 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Western Michigan's defense leaves a lot to be desired. They've allowed 70 points or more in all but one contest against a D1 level team. They play with a modest pace, but have plenty of talent offensively led by Michael Flowers, Brandon Johnson and B Artis White. Seattle definitely struggles on the defensive side of the ball having allowed 77 to Bucknell on Monday and 89 to Syracuse. Heck, they even gave up 81 to Pacific Oregon back on November 12th. They are allowing teams to shoot 56.2% from to point land. Seattle's offense isn't shooting very well, but I think they can find some success against the squad from the MAC. Give me the over here. |
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11-25-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Indiana OVER 138.5 | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech heads to Indiana on Monday night as they look to move to 5-1. The Bulldogs only loss came in an 82-72 game at Creighton. Their wins haven't been that impressive with all the teams ranked either 280 or above. La Tech is shooting 56.1% from two point land, but needs to work on their long range output. The defense has been strong for the most part outside of the one game against someone with talent. LT has four double digit scorers led by transfer Kalob Ledoux. Indiana is 5-0 and has not left home yet this year. They are shooting 60.8% from two point range and are playing at a moderate pace. The team has scored 98, 85, 91, 100 and 79 this season against opponents ranked 200 or above by Ken Pomeroy. I just think this one should go over the total with both sides finding some success. |
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11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
The Patriots should have lost last week to the Eagles. New England managed around 300 yards of offense, but Tom Brady was constantly harassed and didn't look comfortable. Thankfully for the Pats, their defense continues to be stout and it's what is keeping them with only one loss. Dallas is playing their third road game this month and they are coming off a 35-27 road win at Detroit. The Cowboys have not been able to get their run game on track the last two weeks. Thankfully for them, Dak Prescott has been on target. With these two defenses figuring to be the strongest units, I lean to the under. New England has gone under in 29 of their last 48 overall while Dallas has one under in 12 of their last 22 road games. Give me the under here. |
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11-24-19 | North Florida v. Creighton OVER 149.5 | 67-76 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Creighton overs have been very good to me and I think they will be again here too. Creighton has scored 81, 69, 82 and 86 points this season as they've had a lot of success from long range. The team is shooting 42.7% from three point land and is 9th on KenPom's adjusted efficiency list. They aren't the deepest team in the world, but they can shoot it and run some offense as well. The problem is on the defensive side where teams are shooting nearly 57% from two point land. Cal Poly's offense is rather weak yet they put up 70 on Friday. North Florida plays at a quicker pace and shoots a ton of three's. When they go in, games like they had against Florida National and Georgia Southern happen in which they put up 80 or more. When they don't go in, the Florida game on opening night happens when they lost 74-59. The team's defense isn't very good and they are allowing opponents to crush them inside. The Ospreys lost 83-68 at Iowa just a few nights ago. Still, I think both offenses find success here and we soar over the total. |
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11-24-19 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 52 | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay has gone over in eight straight games and I think they do so again on Sunday. The Bucs offense is averaging 27.7 points per game, but they are also giving up over 30 and a lot of that is because they can't stop anyone through the air. Not only that, Jameis Winston is the gift that gives in both directions with touchdown passes and interceptions for touchdowns. He's always good for an interception or two that gives opponents short fields or touchdowns. Atlanta has won two straight and it's because the offense has played better and the defense has been lights out. I'm not a believer that their D is suddenly as good as allowing 12 points in their last two contests. They gave up 27 to Seattle, 37 to the Rams and 24 to Tennessee at home before that. I think Matt Ryan will be able to connect with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley early and often. Last year these two teams played a 34-29 contest in Atlanta and a 34-32 one in Tampa Bay. Give me the over in yet another Tampa contest. |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 38 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is such an odd spot for Pittsburgh as it lands in between a pair of games against the Browns. The Steelers offense was absolutely brutal in Cleveland 10 days ago as they put up seven points and had under 250 yards of offense. They will not have James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster or Maurkice Pouncey in the front line so I don't know how Pittsburgh will score. Mason Rudolph has been exposed as a guy who can't throw deep and doesn't have a ton of weapons. This team has gone under in two straight and four of their last five as the defense has been fantastic. It's hard to run on them and four straight teams have thrown for less then 200 yards. Cincinnati has scored less then 20 points in five straight games as Ryan Finley has shown he's not the answer. Because of that, teams are stacking the box to stop Joe Mixon. The Bengals defense is not the greatest, but they held the Raiders to 17 last week. The Steelers have gone under in 16 of their last 19 on the road. |
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11-23-19 | Nevada v. Fresno State UNDER 51.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
Fresno State is a ridiculously banged up bunch right now and I think Nevada has a chance to pick them off. The Wolf Pack are coming off a bye week after winning two in a row over New Mexico and San Diego State. One could say the bye week screwed up their mojo, but I'd like to think it helped focus them up more. The team has struggled to run it and is getting just enough in the passing game to win. Defensively Nevada is playing well against the pass and has held up okay against the run. Fresno State has lost two straight and three of their last four. The defense is riddled with injuries and the offense is just not getting much going especially since the offensive line has a ton of injuries. Fresno State has started three centers, three left tackles and four left guards. I'll take a shot on the under. Nevada has gone under in four straight and six of their last eight. Fresno scored seven points last week vs. San Diego State. Give me the under here. |
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11-23-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma OVER 65 | 24-28 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Oklahoma is coming off a highly emotional win over Baylor on the road and now they host TCU on Saturday. The Sooners offense is averaging 47 points per game while the defense has allowed 120 points over their last three contests. You can beat OU's defense and one has to wonder if there will be a hangover after last week. TCU has lost four of their last six, but they've gone over the total in four straight and seven of their last eight. The Horned Frogs offense was humming last week in the 33-31 win over Texas Tech in which they put up almost 600 yards of offense. TCU's problem is on defense where they've allowed 24 or more in six straight contests. The last two years these two have played games with scores of 41-17 and 52-27. Quite simply, I think this one will see a lot of points. |
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11-23-19 | CS Bakersfield v. Gonzaga OVER 141 | 49-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Bakersfield's defense has been absolutely hideous this season giving up 100 to San Francisco on the road and 93 at home to South Dakota State. The Roadrunners two wins have come over Notre Dame de Namur and Life Pacific. They also lost 67-55 at Northern Iowa in a 61 possession game. Teams are shooting 48.2% from long range against Bakersfield. Richmond transfer De'Monte Buckingham has been a vital cog to this team this season. Gonzaga has been one of the best offensive teams in the country. They have a effective field goal percentage of nearly 60%. The team is shooting 60.1% from two point land and 38% from long range. The Zags have scored 95, 110, 97, 79 and 72 so far this season. The defense has been very good as well. Still, I think Gonzaga gets to 90 again and we go over the total. |
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11-23-19 | Duke v. Wake Forest UNDER 50 | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
Wake Forest has their final home game of the season as they host Duke. The offense has collapsed with the loss of WRs Surratt and Washington and it showed last week against Clemson. Jamie Newman was harassed into all sorts of issues. He does still have Kendall Hinton, but it's just not the same. It's a worry that Wake plays with a bit of pace, but that doesn't matter if you are going three and out. Wake's defense is bad, but at home they held NC State to 10 points and FSU to 20. Duke has scored just 44 points the last four weeks. Their offense has collapsed big time with Quentin Harris regressing and opponents stacking the box against the run. The Blue Devil defense has shown up at times although last week getting blasted by Syracuse was a worry. They've gone under in 12 of their last 18 as an underdog and 10 of their last 15 on the road. To me, this one should be played a little closer to the vest. The weather is going to be rainy so the passing games may be hampered a bit. I think this one is an under. |
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11-23-19 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Monroe OVER 62.5 | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
Louisiana Monroe has lost three of their last four and it's because of a very leaky defense and an offense that has gone through some awful stretches. The Warhawks have scored 115 points the last three weeks, but have also given up 130 on defense. The last four opponents have rushed for 200 yards or more on them. I really like Caleb Evans as a quarterback. He threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns two weeks ago against Georgia State and is facing a team with seven sophomores or freshmen in their top eight of the depth chart in the secondary. Coastal has lost five of their last six and it's because of a lot of injuries too. They have allowed 28 or more in seven straight contests as you can torch them in the secondary. The Chanticleers have gone over in 10 of their last 18 on the road. The last two scores in this series were 51-43 and 45-20. Give me the over here. |
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11-22-19 | Wake Forest v. Davidson OVER 141 | 82-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
I've taken overs in both teams' games this season and of course will look to do so when they play each other. Davidson is 2-2 with wins over UNC Wilmington and Nevada and losses to Auburn and Charlotte. The Wildcats have scored 178 points in their last two victories despite playing 67 and 68 possession games. They are one of the slowest teams in the country and they allow teams to shoot almost 58% from two point land. Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson are a very potent duo, but they've got solid role players too. Wake Forest is 2-2 with wins against Columbia and UNC Asheville to go with losses to BC and Charlotte. Wake's defense is rather porous allowing 79 to the Bulldogs and 77 to the Eagles. Andrien White is a solid addition coming over from Charlotte to go along with Brandon Childress and Chaundee Brown. Olivier Sarr is the seven footer for the Demon Deacons. Wake won this game 67-63 last year as a two point underdog. I just think this one goes over the lower total on Friday. |
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11-22-19 | McNeese State v. Richmond OVER 148 | 57-87 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
McNeese State will play their fifth road game of the season already as they come in 2-4 into this matchup. The Cowboys have allowed 75 or more to every one of their D1 opponents as their two wins have come against Southern New Orleans and Arlington Baptist. These guys gave up 90 to New Mexico, 83 to Wisconsin, 85 to Louisiana and 75 to Western Michigan. They aren't bad offensively with an effective FG% of 55.1 which is well above average in basketball right now. Richmond is 3-0 on the year and they've scored 100, 93 and 90 so far this season. They are actually 8th in the effective FG% category themselves. The Spiders have a fantastic offense that is capable of putting up 90 themselves. Their defense has struggled at times giving up 98 to St. Francis of PA and 92 to Vanderbilt, granted both were in overtimes. Opponents are shooting 42% from long range against Richmond. I think this team is an over team this season and will be looking to jump on it when possible. |
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11-22-19 | Missouri State v. St. Joe's OVER 142 | 71-69 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
St. Joe's is one of the fastest teams in the country with the ninth fastest adjusted tempo as every game has been 70 possessions or more. The Hawks defense is rather porous allowing 81 to Bradley, 82 to ODU, 87 to UConn, 85 to Loyola Chicago and 70 to Florida. Teams are shooting 41.2% from long range against them. The offense has actually been better then people think with Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk being their better weapons. Missouri State is one of the slowest teams in the country, but their offense can be pretty efficient. They put up 73 at home on Cleveland State and 70 on Miami yesterday in a game that saw 67 possessions. I think these two should be able to put up some points on Friday afternoon. Give me the over here. I think the Hawks go over the majority of the time. |
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11-21-19 | Toledo v. Notre Dame OVER 139 | 62-64 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
The Rockets offense has been fantastic so far this season shooting 47.3% from long range and 54.7% from up close. Toledo has scored 70 or more in all four games with the lowest total being 70 against Robert Morris in a 65 possession game. Marreon and Willie Jackson are pretty strong along with Luke Knapke patrolling the middle. Defensively teams are shooting every 15.8 seconds or so during their possession. Notre Dame is 4-1 since a 76-65 loss to North Carolina on the road. Outside of a 61 possession game against Presbyterian, this team has played games at 70 or more. During this home stretch against cupcakes, the Irish have put up 92, 79, 74 and 63. Toledo has gone over in 18 of their last 30 road games including 10 of 15 as a road underdog. I think this total is too low for two potent offenses. |
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11-21-19 | Howard v. Marshall OVER 152.5 | 63-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Marshall is 1-3 on the season and have lost three straight since a 67-60 win over Robert Morris. The Thundering Herd have lost 96-70 to Toledo, 74-64 to Notre Dame and 76-66 to Charleston. Marshall is currently running the 11th fastest adjusted tempo with the sixth quickest average possession length of 14 seconds. The Thundering Herd's offense hasn't been good enough, but I think they could find the success they need here. Taevion Kinsey and Jarrod West are the leaders here. Howard is 0-5 and is ranked 348th in defensive adjusted efficiency. This team has given up 70 or more to all of their opponents and somehow lost at home to Washington Adventist who is a level below. Howard's last loss was a 73 possession contest against Toledo 112-68. Teams are shooting 62.3% from two point range against the Bison. Give me the over here. |
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11-20-19 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Oregon State OVER 141.5 | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
The Gauchos are one of the slowest teams in the country, yet they are really effective on offense shooting 63% from two point land. They are 1-2 with a 83-62 win over Jackson State to go with a 77-61 loss to UCLA and a crushing 82-81 loss to Rice in which they were up really big. UCSB is allowing teams to shoot nearly 44% from long range. Max Heidegger is an underrated guard and JaQuori McLaughlin and Matt Freeman are key pieces too. Oregon State also plays slow yet they are effective as well. This team has wins over CSUN (87-67), Iowa State (80-74) and Wyoming (83-63) to go with a 77-69 loss to Oklahoma. Tres Tinkle is one of those guys who feel like he's been in school forever which is the ultimate complement. Ethan Thompson is pretty good and Kylor Kelley is a solid seven foot center. Give me the over here. |
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11-20-19 | Eastern Washington v. Boston College OVER 142.5 | 68-72 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Boston College is 3-1 on the season and is coming off a tough 100-85 home loss to Belmont on Saturday. The Eagles had been pretty good offensively beating Wake 77-70, South Florida 74-60 and High Point 59-33. In each game they went over 70 possessions with Derryck Thornton leading the way. This offense isn't the greatest in terms of talent, but the defense can be rather leaky against decent offenses. Eastern Washington wants to play with some pace on both ends of the floor. They beat Portland Bible 107-25 and Seattle 74-66 before falling 82-60 to St. Louis. The offensive numbers aren't that great, but the defensive numbers are so poor that I think the home team will do a lot of the heavy lifting. BC has gone over in 21 of their last 33 games when the total is in the 140s. They've also gone over in 19 of their last 33 home games including two of three this season. Give me the over here. |
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11-19-19 | Mississippi Valley State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 153 | 43-76 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech/Creighton was my 5% play on Saturday as an over play. The Bulldogs lost 82-72 in a game that saw them have 71 possessions. This team is shooting almost 57% from two point land and already has scored 82 and 98 in their other two contests. Their defense has had a little bit of an issue especially against three point shooting. One of the fastest teams and worst defenses in the league resides in Mississippi Valley State. They've lost games 110-74 to Iowa State, 143-49 to Utah, 134-78 to Central Michigan and 91-81 to Western Michigan. The Delta Devils are allowing teams to shoot 61.7% from two point land and 41.5% from three point land. The average possession length on defense is 13.1 seconds which is the fastest in basketball. Give me the over here as I think the Bulldogs get to at least 90. |
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11-19-19 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Kent State OVER 149 | 68-75 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Kent State is 3-0 on the season, playing just their second home game. This team has wins over Hiram (97-58), Towson (84-80, OT) and Wright State (72-71). They are a modestly paced team who has had 72 possessions or more in all three contests. There is plenty to like about this team with Philip Whittington, Danny Pippen and Antonio Williams. Fort Wayne is 2-3 on the year and as long as the numbers are reasonable, I will take the over in their game. This team has allowed 80 points to Manchester, 86 to UNLV, 79 to SEMO and 84 to Miami-Ohio. Now their offense has scored 70 or more in every game themselves and are shooting 54.5% from two point range. Jon Konchar is gone, but they have a little more balance this year. Fort Wayne has gone over in 23 of their last 31 road games while KSU has gone over in 16 of their last 28 at home. Give me the over here. |
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11-19-19 | Nevada v. Davidson OVER 143.5 | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Nevada is 2-2 on the young season with home wins over Loyola Marymount (72-67) and UT-Arlington (80-73) to go with losses to Utah (79-74) and USC (76-66). Every game was played with 70 possessions or more as this team averages just 15 seconds per possession. The Wolf Pack are playing pretty well against the long range shooters but are allowing teams to shoot better then 50% from two point land. Jazz Johnson and Lindsey Drew are the leading returnees to a team that saw a lot of graduations. Jalen Harris is another contributor who comes over from Louisiana Tech. Davidson is a disappointing 1-2 so far with the win coming Saturday against UNC Wilmington 87-49. They had some tough losses against Auburn and Charlotte. This offense has way too much talent to continue to struggle with Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson leading the way. This is one of the slower paced teams in the country which is why the total is lower. I still think this one should go over with these two offenses who can score. |
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11-17-19 | Georgia State v. Georgetown OVER 151 | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Georgia State is 1-2 on the year with the win coming over Brewton Parker 104-35 and the losses coming to Charleston (84-80) and Duke (74-63). The Panthers are averaging the 20th least average possession length meaning they want to play quickly. GSU is allowing an awful 44.2% offensive rebounds to their opponent. This team has no problems playing a game with over 70 possessions. Georgetown is another quick shooting team. They are 2-1 with an 81-68 win over Mt. St Mary's and a 89-78 win over Central Arkansas. They are coming off an 81-66 loss at home to Penn State and are staring at a game against Texas next. Omer Yurtseven should have a field day against this smaller team. I think this one should see plenty of possessions and plenty of points. |
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11-17-19 | UCF v. Illinois State OVER 133.5 | 67-65 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
I think there's some value here with the lower total in the UCF/ISU game. Central Florida is 1-1 with a 73-69 home win over Prairie View A&M and a 79-70 loss at home to Miami. The win featured 72 possessions with the loss featuring 69. Ideally, this team does not want to go fast, but their defense isn't as strong with Tacko Fall not patrolling the middle anymore. Teams are shooting 39% from long range against them. The leaders are Dazon Ingram and Matt Milon who are transfers into the program along with Collin Smith and Ceasar DeJesus. Illinois State is 2-0 beating Belmont 79-72 and Little Rock 75-70 in a pair of 69 possession games. Illinois State is hitting 46% of their threes but are allowing opponents to make 60.9% of their two pointers. The Redbirds are led by Zach Copeland and have Ricky Torres who came over from Wichita State. UCF has gone over in 14 of their last 25 when the total is in the 130s. Last year this game was a 77-56 home victory for the Knights, but as I said, it had Tacko Fall who made a huge difference. I think this one can go over the lower total. |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 50 | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Saints and Bucs met in New Orleans back on October 6th and the Saints won 31-24 and that was with Teddy Bridgewater under center. New Orleans had the oddest loss of the season last week falling 26-9 to Atlanta at home. In that one they ran for just 52 yards and didn't manage a touchdown against one of the worst defenses in the league. Even worse for New Orleans, they will be without Marshon Lattimore which means Mike Evans could go crazy. Tampa Bay has scored 64 points the last two weeks against the Seahawks and Cardinals. This team has gone over in seven straight because the offense is rolling and the defense has allowed 30 or more five times. The Bucs secondary is very vulnerable with six of their last eight opponents throwing for over 300 yards against them. This one seems like an over to me. |
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11-17-19 | Cowboys v. Lions UNDER 47 | 35-27 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Detroit is playing Jeff Driskel once again as they host Dallas on Sunday. The Lions have lost five of their last six games since starting out 2-0-1. Detroit's offense last week managed just 13 points and 357 yards total. Driskel is not going to scare anyone deep and this team can't run it either. The one thing I do think is that the defense can slow down Dallas enough to keep this under going. This is an odd spot for the Cowboys off two straight primetime contests with New England coming up next week. I have a feeling they will want to get Zeke Elliott going after they ran for only 50 yards against the Vikings. The Cowboys defense should be able to do some solid work against the Lions. The line has adjusted for Driskel's appearance, but not the total. Dallas has gone under in 12 of their last 21 road games. Give me the under here. |
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11-16-19 | Troy State v. Indiana OVER 145 | 62-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Troy is 0-2 on the season as they head to Indiana on Saturday. The Trojans lost 76-75 to UAB and 74-68 to Chattanooga with both games being at home. Their defensive adjusted efficiency is pretty bad meaning Indiana should be able to get whatever they want. Darian Adams averages 16 points through two games and is 8-of-14 from long range. He's got Charles Norman and KJ Simon with him in the backcourt. Troy has been shooting 40.7% from long range, but they are not doing much from the free throw line. Indiana is 3-0 as they take on the low of the low's in the KenPom rankings. They beat WIU 98-65, Portland State 85-74 and North Alabama 91-65. In each game except one they had over 70 possessions and at times struggled defensively. The Hoosiers are allowing opponents to shoot 40.7% from long range. Indiana has gone over in 12 of their last 17 November games including all three this year. I think this one goes over the total as well. |
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11-16-19 | Stetson v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 149 | 55-79 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Stetson is 2-0 entering their game against Fort Wayne on Saturday. The Hatters went 7-24 last year, but have some talent back under new head coach Donnie Jones. They beat Trinity Baptist 84-26 in game one and then followed it up with a road win at Western Illinois 77-75. This team has been very efficient on offense through two games shooting almost 55% from two point land and 45% from long range. They have not been forcing turnovers though and are pretty bad on defense. The Mastodons are 1-3 with a 91-80 win over Manchester to go with losses of 86-71 to UNLV, 79-78 to SEMO and 84-80 to Miami-Ohio. Defensively, this team is rather awful ranking 319th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They are shooting well from the field themselves, but are allowing teams to shoot 54.5% from two and 37.1% from three. I've said it before and I'll say it again...this team's overs are almost instabets for the most part. They play with pace and can't stop anyone. |
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11-16-19 | NC-Wilmington v. Davidson OVER 144 | 49-87 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
UNC Wilmington is 2-1 on the season and is at Davidson on Saturday. The Seahawks wins came 103-83 over Johnson and Wales and 81-76 against Campbell with the loss being 78-62 to UNC. This team plays little to no defense and hasn't the past few years. Davidson is 0-2 and will probably use this game to get a lot of frustrations out after losing 76-66 to Auburn and 71-58 to Charlotte. Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson are too good to see this team continue to lose like this. Their starting five is very good and will want to exorcise some demons. Last year this game was 91-85 on the road and 108-81 at home for Davidson. UNC Wilmington has gone over in 11 of their last 12 games with a total in the 140s. I think this one continues that trend. |
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11-16-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Creighton OVER 142 | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech returns four starters and are led by McNeese State transfer Kalob Ledoux who is averaging 15.5 points per game for the Bulldogs. Ledoux is shooting 7-of-17 from deep and is a good complementary scorer to DaQuan Bracey who is more of a distributor. The lineup also includes JaColby Pemberton who plays bigger then his 6'5" frame. This team wants to play fast forcing 49 turnovers in two games so far. Creighton's depth has been challenged, but their coach says that they are going to continue to keep things fast. The Blue Jays are 1-1 with an 81-55 win over Kennesaw State and a 79-69 loss to Michigan. This team is 6th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot 58% from two point land. To me, this is an over with both teams wanting to go. |
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11-16-19 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt UNDER 43 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Two of the lesser offenses in the SEC play as Vandy hosts Kentucky. The Wildcats have gone under in six straight games as their O has gone really anemic. Kentucky has scored just 109 points over their last seven contests. A lot of that has to do with injuries at quarterback, but Sawyer Smith is healthier and Lynn Bowden is still playing at quarterback. The good thing for them is that their defense has been really good. The last three weeks this team has allowed 45 points and that included 21 in the pouring rain against Georgia. It's very hard to run on these guys and their secondary has held six straight opponents to less then 220 yards through the air. Vandy will have Riley Neal under center which will help them. The Commodores have scored 44 points the last five games and have gone under in five of their last six. Vandy's defense is nothing special, but they've spent a lot of time on the field. This team held South Carolina to 24 and Missouri to 14. Last year this was a 14-7 game with two better teams. I think we could see something similar here. |
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11-16-19 | Richmond v. James Madison OVER 54 | 6-48 | Push | 0 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
This should be a fun one in the CAA on Saturday. One has to wonder where the Spiders heads are at after blowing last week vs. Villanova. It was a 35-28 loss to the Wildcats in which Nova was able to do whatever they wanted in the second half. Richmond's offense has some potential to move the ball even on James Madison's stout defense. Joe Mancuso has been very good as a dual threat quarterback lately. The Spiders defense has talent, but on the road they've given up 45 at BC, 25 at Delaware and the aforementioned 35 to the Cats. JMU has faced five ranked opponents their last six games and they have scored 54, 27, 38, 45 and 45. They want to run it, but also have threats outside. It's a rivalry game so you know that the Dukes will score a little extra if they get the chance to. JMU overs have been very profitable to me and I'm going to keep pounding them. |
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11-16-19 | Coastal Carolina v. Arkansas State OVER 60 | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina's defense figures to get smashed in this game as their secondary has been ravaged by injuries. CCU has allowed over 700 yards through the air at home against Troy and Lafayette. The Chanticleers offense was poor last week scoring seven points. Before that, they had a stretch of six straight games scoring 21 or more. I think they can move the ball on Arkansas State who has given up 35 or more in four of their last five and five of their last seven. Even Southern Illinois put up 28 on the Red Wolves. Layne Hatcher has been great for their offense though as this team is cruising offensively. They put up 35 or more on UNLV, SIU, Troy, Georgia State, Texas State and UL-Monroe. ASU has gone over in four of their last six. This game last year was a 44-16 ASU win on the road which followed a 51-17 victory back in 2017. Coastal is 10-4-3 to the over in their last 17 road games. Give me the over here. |
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11-16-19 | Towson v. William & Mary OVER 54.5 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Towson has won three of their last four after a three game losing streak. The Tigers offense is very capable putting up 31 each of the last two weeks at home against Delaware and on the road at Stony Brook. Tom Flacco is putting up fantastic numbers for the Tigers with 2,426 yards passing to go with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. One of his main targets is Shane Leatherbury who has 44 receptions and nine touchdown catches. Defensively, Towson is allowing over 400 yards of offense. Villanova was able to score 52, Albany 38, JMU 27 and Delaware 24. The Tribe have scored 25, 31 and 55 points their last three weeks against the likes of Maine, Elon and Rhode Island. This team continues to run the go-go offense which means that they are running a ton of plays and putting pressure on their opponents. When it doesn't work, that puts their defense early and often. They are giving up over 400 yards of offense themselves. Towson is desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive and I think this one sees a boatload of points. |
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11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51.5 | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
This seems like way too many points in this game. Florida is coming off a 56-0 win at home against Vanderbilt. The Gators defense was massive and their offense was great too. UF's defense has been good for the most part outside of giving up 42 to LSU on the road. They held UGA to 24, Auburn to 13 and Tennessee to 3. The thing is Missouri's defense is also really good. The secondary has been fantastic against the pass and it matches up well with the Gators. The under has hit in seven of their last eight games. Kelly Bryant is back after missing last week, but is he going to be rusty. The Tigers scored just 21 points during their three game road stretch at Vandy, Kentucky and Georgia. I think this is way too many points and I'll take the under. |
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11-15-19 | North Carolina Central v. Akron OVER 140.5 | 47-57 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Akron basketball is 1-1 entering the season and the Zips are playing with a better pace then they have in the past. This team has an 81-64 win over Malone to go with a 94-84 loss at West Virginia. The two games were played with 72 and 84 possessions so I expect something in that area again on Friday. Xeyrius Williams comes over from Dayton and he's been a big addition to go along with Tyler Cheese who is a combo guard. NC Central is 1-1 with a 94-64 loss to Stephen F Austin on the road and a 73-64 home win over USC Upstate. The Eagles are not very efficient offensively and are much worse defensively. The one thing they do well is shoot from long range where they are hitting at a 44.4% clip. These two teams should be able to go over the lower total. NC Central is slower, but clearly doesn't mind playing with some pace. |
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11-14-19 | Winthrop v. East Tennessee State OVER 148 | 58-61 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
East Tennessee State's offense is in incredible form right now. The Bucs are shooting 50% from long range and 69.4% from two point land. Granted, their two wins were 79-50 over Newberry and 92-75 over Tennessee Martin. This team wants to play with some pace and I've made money on their overs in the past. Jeremy Rodriguez are among the studs along with Lucas N'Guessan who is a very athletic seven footer. Winthrop is going to be happy to play with some pace finally. In their two wins on the road, they grinded out a 67-57 win at Hartford and a 61-59 victory at St. Mary's. Winthrop's one loss was at Fresno and it was played at a quicker pace in a 77-74 loss. It could be an issue for this team that they've been on the road all year long and it's their fourth game in a week. We'll see if it shows up, but I think the over is worth a look here. |
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11-14-19 | Vanderbilt v. Richmond OVER 141.5 | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Vandy is 2-0 this season with a 83-65 win over SEMO and a 71-66 victory over Texas A&M Corpus Christi. So far under Jerry Stackhouse they are playing a little bit slower then we thought with average possessions around 18 seconds. Aaron Nesmith is one of their biggest stars with Saben Lee also being someone to watch for the Commodores. Richmond's tinkering with new defenses and they didn't exactly show much of it in a 100-98 overtime win over St. Francis of PA. The Spiders offense is going to be one of the best in the country but they allowed the Red Flashes to shoot 50% from long range and offensively rebound 36.6% of their shots. The one thing to watch here is the status of Grant Golden. Golden turned his ankle and is a game time decision. Richmond has gone over in 20 of their last 30 lined games and 24 of their last 36 when the total is in the 140s. I think this one is a bit higher scoring then the total says. |
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11-13-19 | Miami-OH v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 151 | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
Fort Wayne overs are almost insta-bets for me as this team loves playing with pace and don't play defense very well. Miami-Ohio lost their opener 88-81 to Wright State at home in a game that saw 79 possessions. The Redhawks are led by Nike Sibande and Dalonte Brown as well as Bam Bowman. The lineup is also bolstered by Isaiah Coleman-Landis who played just five games last year. This team wants to run a bit and may be able to do whatever they want against the Dons. Fort Wayne is 1-2 with a 91-80 win over Manchester to go with a 86-71 loss to UNLV and a 79-78 defeat at the hands of SEMO. In each of those games they had at least 70 possessions. Traditionally, this team has been an over and we already hit the one in the SEMO game. Even without Jon Konchar, Jarred Godfrey, Matt Holba, Dylan Carl and Marcus DeBerry are not a bad group of weapons. |
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11-13-19 | North Carolina-Asheville v. Wake Forest OVER 142 | 79-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Mike Morrell has some talent finally in UNC Asheville as they take on Wake Forest. The Bulldogs lost 78-63 to Tennessee on the road in game one, but then went to The Citadel and picked up a 91-76 win. These guys were the youngest team in basketball last year, but also added Lavar Batts and Jax Levitch from some solid programs as well. Batts has yet to make the predicted impact for them as he's got just 13 points in 37 minutes played and he's had nine fouls as well. DeVon Baker and Tajion Jones are two of their better players as well. Wake Forest wants to play with some pace as well and they didn't do it last time out against Columbia winning 65-63. The Demon Deacons are taking just under 15 seconds a possession on offense. They lost to BC back in game one 77-70 on the road with both games going over 70 possessions. Andrien White has been a solid pickup this offseason to go along with Brandon Childress and Olivier Sarr. |
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11-12-19 | Auburn v. South Alabama OVER 145 | 70-69 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a rare opportunity for a program like South Alabama to get a power five school in their building. Last year the Tigers steamrolled the Jaguars 101-58 as 20.5 point favorites. South Alabama is 2-0 with an 82-51 win over Pikeville and a 75-69 win over Southern Miss. They lost 78-75 to Mississippi State in an exhibition game as well. This team wants to play with a little bit of pace and has played some good defense as well. I really like their roster with Josh Ajayi leading the way at 21.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. They've got three other double digit scorers and some depth as well. Auburn beat Georgia Southern 83-74 then knocked off Davidson 76-66 in a game that should have gone over but didn't. The Tigers roster hasn't been completely gutted from last year with Samir Doughty, Austin Wiley, J'Von McCormick and Danjel Purifoy among the contributors. Auburn has gone over in 18 of their last 29 when the total is in the 140s. I think this one is an over as well. |
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11-12-19 | Evansville v. Kentucky OVER 137.5 | 67-64 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Walter McCarty brings Evansville to Kentucky for a game on Tuesday. The Purple Aces want to run and run and run as evidenced by their 79-75 win over Ball State last weekend. DeAndre Williams had 26 points and nine rebounds in the win with Sam Cunliffe chipping in 17. Last year in big games out of conference this team lost 99-60 at Illinois and 91-85 at Xavier. They certainly don't have the weapons to keep up with Kentucky. The Wildcats have a 69-62 win over Michigan State to go along with a 91-49 romp over Eastern Kentucky. UK averages 15.7 seconds per possession which is the same as how long they are on defense on average. The other intriguing factor is how will they play considering McCarty is Kentucky royalty and is on the other sideline. Will they pull off the gas a little bit towards the end? I'll take a shot that Evansville is able to score a little and UK does a lot of the heavy lifting on our way to an over. |
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11-11-19 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Vanderbilt OVER 134 | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt is 1-0 after their 83-65 win over SEMO last week. The Commodores were tied at halftime, but had a fantastic second half as they shot 49.2% from the court. They were led by Aaron Nesmith's 25 points and 21 off the bench from Saben Lee in 28 minutes. Jerry Stackhouse has this team playing a little quicker as they had an adjusted tempo of 71.6 possessions. Texas A&M Corpus Christi lost their first game 82-49 against Louisiana Tech. It was a really rough game for the Islanders who were led by Jashawn Talton-Thomas who is the younger brother of Rashawn Thomas who was a star there. They approached 70 possessions in the loss and that was at home. I don't think they'll be able to set their slower pace on the road. Vandy is still working out some of the kinks so I think it'll be a little closer and Corpus Christi will be able to help out. Give me the over. |
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11-10-19 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. SE Missouri State OVER 153 | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Fort Wayne has gone over in 22 of their last 33 as a favorite including 10 of their last 13 as a road favorite. The Mastodons have played two games already losing 86-71 at UNLV before beating Manchester 91-80. The common thread in both was a lack of defense by the Dons. This team lost Jon Konchar, but it could be argued that they have more balanced scoring. Jarred Godfrey leads Fort Wayne with 22 points per game and is one of four who are shooting 50% or better from the court. SEMO has played just one game this season losing 83-65 at Vanderbilt. Quatarrius Wilson came over from McNeese State and he had a double-double in the loss with 12 points and 13 rebounds. The Redhawks have gone over in 14 of their last 22 at home. I think this one should see plenty of points on Sunday. |
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11-10-19 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Illinois State OVER 137 | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Illinois State is coming off an emotional 79-72 home win over Belmont in which it was an underdog. The Redbirds shot almost 48% from the court and made half of their three point attempts. It could have been a bigger win if not for their struggles from the free throw line. Zach Copeland is the leading returning starter, but Taylor Bruninga has made an impact for them as well. He's a solid shooter who has size and offensive ability. On the other side you've got UALR who won at Missouri State 67-66 last time out. The Trojans shot really well in that one and played some solid defense on the Bears. Markquis Nowell and Nikola Maric are the two leading returning scorers. Both teams played a moderately paced first game. I think this one is going over the total. |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Arizona has lost two straight since a three game win streak in early October. The Cardinals offense has scored 20 or more in five of their last seven games as Kyler Murray has been getting a little bit better. David Johnson is going to play so that will help. Zona's defense is brutal and Jameis Winston should be able to pick them apart. Three of their last four opponents have thrown for 300 yards or better. Plus, this is their fourth road game since October 6th so you have to wonder how they will play coming east. Tampa Bay is also coming off a rough road stretch with four of their last five away from home. The Bucs have scored 20 or more in every game but one this season. They've gone over in six straight games and I think that trend continues. Tampa's defense has been great against the run, but almost everyone has thrown on them. These two should put up some points on Sunday. |
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11-09-19 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Bradley OVER 138 | 56-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Bradley's new look nearly paid off in Philly, but they fell short 86-81 to St. Joe's as a slight favorite. The Braves have talked about playing with a little more pace then they have in the past. This is a deeper team with several studs back from last year's team. The result was St. Joe picking them apart, but Bradley scoring over 80 points which I don't think they did a ton last year. IUPUI lost their first game 80-47 to Butler. They shot worse and allowed the Bulldogs to shoot almost 60% from the court. The Jaguars return three starters but had to change their coach in the offseason as Jason Gardner was let go. Last year this game was an 85-73 contest at IUPUI and it had a total of 134.5. I think Bradley will find it easier to get some offense going in this one and we sail over the total. |
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11-09-19 | Ball State v. Evansville OVER 144 | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Evansville will start their season on Saturday as they host Ball State who already has a game under their belt. The Purple Aces needed overtime in their lone exhibition to pick up a win 71-68. Walter McCarty lamented how disjointed they looked with a slower pace and poor shooting. McCarty wants to run and play faster. Last year the Purple Aces averaged around 70 possessions per game. Ball State played Evansville twice last year winning 82-72 at home, but losing 89-77 in the Ford Center. The Cardinals lone win came over Defiance of division three. KJ Walton, Tahjai Teague and Kyle Mallers led the way as the returnees from last year's squad. There will definitely be some sloppiness from the home team, but I think this one will be a higher scoring game on Saturday. |
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11-09-19 | Valparaiso v. St. Louis OVER 133 | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
One of my easiest winners from early on was the over in the Valpo game as they knocked off Toledo 79-77. The Crusaders lost a ton of talent, but brought some intriguing players in and the offense started to come a little more. Ryan Fazekas had 23 points while Javon Freeman-Liberty got a late basket to get the win. Mileek McMillan was able to play 28 mins and was able to make his presence felt. They also allowed the Rockets to shoot nearly 50% from the court and that won't work against St. Louis who won their first game 89-67. The Billikens like to play bully ball and a physical brand of basketball. Hasahn French had 29 points in the victory over Florida Gulf Coast. SLU has the size advantage and the talent advantage, but I think Valpo can throw some offensive punches too. This is a really low total and I think it may be too low. Neither team particularly wants to run, but I think they will if given the chance. Give me the over here. |
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11-09-19 | Rhode Island v. William & Mary OVER 55.5 | 19-55 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
Rhode Island's offense has a lot of potential through the air which is good because William and Mary specializes against the run themselves. The Rams have Vito Priore under center with Aaron Parker out wide. URI's defense has given up 32.4 points per game and 438.4 yards per contest. This team has had a tough road schedule losing 41-20 at Ohio, 27-24 at New Hampshire, 34-17 at Virginia Tech and 35-28 at Albany to go along with a 31-28 win at Brown. The Tribe continue to run the go-go offense to mixed results. They've had to play some quarterback roulette with Hollis Mathis and Kilton Anderson going in and out of the lineup from time to time. Last week they won at Elon 31-29 which halted a five game losing streak. The WM defense has had a stretch of five straight opponents scoring 29 points or more. I think this one should see plenty of points. |
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11-07-19 | Temple v. South Florida OVER 49 | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Temple was 5-1 and then got blasted the last two games by SMU and UCF in games that showed their defense has problems with athletes and speed on the outside. They gave up 45 to the Mustangs on the road and 63 at home to the Knights. The defense is better then that, but they've had some odd performances on the road. The Owls allowed 38 at Buffalo, but a lot of that came after a bogus targeting penalty on Shaun Bradley. Temple's offense has been pretty consistent scoring 21 or more in all but one contest this season. They can run it a bit and can throw it with Anthony Russo and Todd Centeio. The WR corps is very strong. USF's defense can be exploited especially at home where they allowed 49 to Wisconsin and 48 to SMU. They struggle against the run with several teams rushing for 180 or more. USF's offense was supposed to be strong with Kerwin Bell coming to install his uptempo offense. They've put up 45, 3, 27 and 48 in their last four games as the run game has figured things out. The problems come with the passing attack led by freshman Jordan McCloud who has 10 touchdown passes and six interceptions. Jordan Cronkite is the guy who makes this thing go at running back. The Owls have gone over in nine of their last 15 on the road. I think this one sees plenty of points. |
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11-07-19 | Kennesaw State v. Drake OVER 146.5 | 55-86 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Drake has three starters back from a team that went 24-10 last year. The Bulldogs went 9-3 in non-conference play, averaging 78.1 points per game. Granted they are without Nick McGlynn and Brady Ellingson. They want to play with some pace to their offense. This team beat Upper Iowa in an exhibition game 95-88. Drake shot over 50% in that game and was without Tremell Murphy who will be suspended early on in the season. Kennesaw State lost at Creighton on Tuesday 81-55 as the Blue Jays shot over 50% from the court. In one respect, the Owls get a game under their belts so they should play a little bit better. On the other hand, it's a quick turnaround with some travel involved. This team is on their 5th head coach in 10 years. They've got two top scorers in Tyler Hooker and Danny Lewis. I think this one sees some points on Thursday. |
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11-06-19 | McNeese State v. Western Michigan OVER 145 | 65-75 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Western Michigan will be an intriguing team in the MAC this season. They return 61.3% of their scoring from last year which is the second highest percentage in the MAC West. They also get Brandon Johnson and Jason Whitens back who were both sidelined due to injury last season. Bring those guys together with Michael Flowers who had 12 20 point performances last year and you've got the makings of a solid offense. They beat Kalamazoo College 76-56 in their lone exhibition contest. On the other side, it's McNeese State who returns just four players with two of those being starters. The other key contributor is AJ Lawson who sat out after transferring from North Texas. Last year the Cowboys went 2-14 on the road. In non-conference action they allowed 87, 80, 91, 67, 90, 80 and 68. Their offense should be just a bit more improved with Lawson running things. I think this one should go over the total. |
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11-05-19 | Bradley v. St. Joe's OVER 143 | 81-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
Bradley is going to play a lot faster than they did last year. They had 23 fast-break points and 43 points in fewer then 10 seconds in their exhibition win over Millikin 91-52. Last year they averaged 17.9 second possessions according to Ken Pomeroy. Bradley is led by Darrell Brown, Elijah Childs and Nate Kennell who were the top three scorers last year. Ja'Shon Henry is going to be a glue guy attempting to replace the departed guys along with LSU transfer Danya Kingsby. St. Joe's is a really fast team themselves so this one should see plenty of possessions and opportunities. Taylor Funk and Ryan Daly are the building blocks for a Hawks team that lost a lot of talent this offseason. In their exhibition game, they beat Arcadia 100-61. This team is going to struggle at times to score, but their lack of defense will help as well. Give me the over here. |
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11-05-19 | North Florida v. Florida OVER 145.5 | 59-74 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
UNF returns all five starters and are one of a few teams that have an all senior starting lineup. The Ospreys want to bomb away from long range and play a helter skelter type of game. Last year against it's better opponents, UNF lost 78-70 to Dayton, 87-72 to Penn State and 98-66 to these same Gators. Other contests included losses to FSU 95-81 and 95-49 to Auburn. The Gators have put up 90 or more in all but two of the matchups between these two schools. Florida has a lot of expectations with them being ranked sixth in the polls. In their lone exhibition they beat Lynn 89-71 with a bunch of guys putting up double digits. The starting lineup features former Hokie Kerry Blackshear as well as freshman Tre Mann to go with Andrew Nembhard and Noah Locke. It is a concern how well this team played defense at home in non-conference games last year, but that was a more veteran bunch. I think we see a boatload of points and go over the total. |
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11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
The Lions hit the road for the first time in a few weeks to take on the Raiders. Detroit's secondary is ravaged with Quandre Diggs being traded, Tracy Walker out and Darius Slay questionable with a hamstring injury. The front line will be without Mike Daniels it looks like as well. Good thing the Lions offense has scored 27 or more in all but two contests. Matt Stafford is playing some of his best football right now and should be able to keep up in a shootout. The Raiders will be playing their first home game since September 15th so pardon them if they are a bit weary. Their offense has actually performed well with 24 points in three straight contests and that came after scoring 31 in Indianapolis. Josh Jacobs has been really good. Oakland's defense is a massive issue right now having allowed 28 points or more three times already. Detroit has gone over in four of their seven games this season. I think this one should see plenty of points. |
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11-03-19 | Bears v. Eagles UNDER 42 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 40 h 57 m | Show | |
The Bears have lost three straight and couldn't be any lower right now with Mitch Trubisky under center. He's the human turnover machine and the offense just hasn't done much scoring over 24 points just twice as a unit. The good thing is that this defense has been nasty at times. They don't allow teams to run on them often and their secondary is pretty stout too. Philly's D is not great, but they are getting healthy in the secondary and it showed against Buffalo in the elements last week. I think the Eagles want to ground and pound here and with that, there will be less possessions. Carson Wentz just doesn't have enough weapons right now even with DeSean Jackson back. Who knows how long he'll be able to play with the injury though. The Bears have gone under in 10 of their last 18 road games and 12 of their last 18 as an underdog. I think this one is a lower scoring special teams affair. |
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11-02-19 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Vandy is coming off a bye week after a 21-14 win over Missouri. The Commodores offense has been underwhelming all year outside of scoring 38 on LSU. They've put up 21 or less in three straight games and four overall. The quarterback play has been poor and it's not keeping opponents honest. Vandy's defense is nothing special, but they've done a solid job against the lesser teams they've faced. South Carolina could be one of those squads as their offense has scored 21 or less four times already. Ryan Hilinski has had the ups and downs of a freshman QB. Their defense needs to be better after giving up 41 to Tennessee last time out. That can't happen against the lackluster Volunteers. The under has hit in three of their last five. Vandy has gone under in four straight and five of their seven overall. Give me the under here. |
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11-02-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas OVER 54 | 38-10 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
It's the big time rivalry game as Kansas hosts Kansas State. The Wildcats are coming off a 48-41 win at home against Oklahoma. Their offense clicked big time for the first time after three lackluster weeks. In an ideal world, they want to have some balance with the run and pass game. Still, focus could be a slight issue after the huge win last week. Since the bye, Kansas has scored 48 and 37 on Texas and Texas Tech. The offense is clicking as they play with a quicker pace and are able to move the ball. The Jayhawks defense is still hideous as all but three opponents have had no issues running the ball. Right now, you can't set Kansas totals high enough for me not to take the over. It's a perfect recipe for a shootout Saturday. |
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11-02-19 | Miami-FL v. Florida State UNDER 49 | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Miami is feeling good after picking up a sloppy 16-12 road win at Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes have won four of their last six despite struggling to score. This team has put up 21 or less in three straight and four of their last five. The defense is still having problems slowing down the run. They've actually been very good against the pass though. FSU is coming off crushing my Orange 35-17 extending their streak to five straight unders. I like their defense and the offense looked competent as well. I'm not ready to buy them playing like that consistently though. I think it was more a product of their opponent then suddenly figuring things out. Miami has gone under in 22 of their last 32 games while the Noles have gone under in five of their eight tilts this year alone. To me, this one is an under. |
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11-02-19 | Stony Brook v. Richmond OVER 51.5 | 10-30 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
Stony Brook is ranked in the FCS top 25 poll right now after winning in Villanova 36-35. The Sea Wolves were down 28-10 at halftime, but Tyquell Fields brought them back as well as Ty Son Lawton. This team also took JMU to overtime falling 45-38 at home at the beginning of October. Stony Brook won at Rhode Island 31-27 and beat Fordham 45-10. Their offense isn't in question and their defense isn't infallible. The Spiders offense is clicking right now after scoring 35 at Delaware and 27 at home against Yale. Joe Mancuso has several solid weapons at wide receiver and a defense that can be beaten as well. Richmond at home has played games with scores of 38-19, 42-20, 23-20 and 28-27. To me, this one should be another shootout. |
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10-27-19 | Giants v. Lions OVER 49.5 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
The Lions have lost three straight since a 2-0-1 start to the season. Detroit's offense hasn't been the issue scoring 27 points or more four times this season. They aren't running it well and will be without Kerryon Johnson meaning we'll get a dose of Ty Johnson and JD McKissic. Detroit's defense is getting gashed by the run the last few weeks and will be without Darius Slay as well as Quandre Diggs who got dealt to Seattle. One has to wonder how much of an effect it will be on the unit. New York has lost their last three games as the defense continues to be really leaky. They've allowed 27 or more in all but one game which was anemic Washington. Daniel Jones won't have Sterling Shepard, but Golden Tate is there and Saquon Barkley will be another week healthier. I think these two should score some points. |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills UNDER 41 | 31-13 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Eagles have dealt with a ton of crap lately on and off the field. They were smoked by their rival Dallas last week and are playing their third straight on the road. This defense has been embarrassed the last two weeks, but the Vikings and Cowboys are way better on offense then Buffalo is. Philly's offense is not doing much either during this road stretch scoring 20 against Minnesota and 10 against the Cowboys. Without DeSean Jackson there just aren't enough weapons for Carson Wentz. Buffalo's offense has scored 21 points or less four times. They can't run it particularly well and Josh Allen is making mistakes and doesn't throw it long well. Buffalo's defense has allowed 21 points or less in every game and that includes stifling the Pats to just 16 points. They should be able to get in the backfield against Philly. The under has hit in five of six Buffalo games. This one could be tight on Sunday. |
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10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts UNDER 42 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
The Colts are 4-2 while Denver is 2-5. The Broncos have gone under in five of their seven because of their awful offense and stifling defense. Denver has scored 20 or less in three straight and six of seven overall. Joe Flacco is stale and they dealt Emmanuel Sanders. On the defensive side, this team has held all but two teams to under 100 rushing yards. No one has had success throwing it on them and as long as Chris Harris is there then things could be tough for T.Y. Hilton. Indy is coming off an emotional home win over the Texans last week, but their defense has been pretty good. The weakness is against the pass and Denver just can't do anything about that. Indy's not getting enough from the run and Jacoby Brissett won't find things to be that easy. I know we're hovering around and below the key number of 42 so that sucks, but I think this smells like a 21-10 contest. |
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10-26-19 | Texas Tech v. Kansas OVER 64.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Kansas has an offense now as they made a change at coordinator and is going a lot faster. They put up 48 points on Texas last week on the road and they had 86 plays in the loss to the Longhorns. Pooka Williams really benefits in this new system. Texas Tech's defense has allowed 28 or more in five straight games. You can throw on them and they've allowed 28, 55 and 33 on the road this year. Jett Duffey has replaced Alan Bowman pretty well so far as this team has put up 45, 30 and 24 in their last three games. The Red Raiders are showing some solid balance on offense and should be able to get what they want against a Jayhawks team with some key injuries on defense. In KU's first conference game they gave up 29 to West Virginia then allowed 51, 45 and 50 in the next three contests. The last two years this game saw scores 48-16 and 65-19. I missed the early number here, but I still think the over is in play and I think there's a shot KU gets the win as well. |
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10-26-19 | South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 47 | 21-41 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
South Carolina and Tennessee play on Saturday in a game important for bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks are 3-4 and are coming off a 38-27 loss at home to Florida. South Carolina's offense has been underwhelming for the most part scoring 24 points or less five times with one of the non contests being against Charleston Southern. The defense has sprung some leaks against the run, but has been good against the pass. Tennessee's offense is also anemic as of late. They've scored just 50 points the last four weeks against SEC competition. They have a terrible group of quarterbacks which affects the running game. The defense has done some solid work against the lesser offenses they've faced. They held Mississippi State to 10 points in Rocky Top a few weeks ago. USC has gone under in eight of their last 11 road games. Tennessee has gone under in 11 of their last 20 SEC games. Give me the under in this one. |
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10-26-19 | Tulane v. Navy UNDER 58 | 38-41 | Loss | -117 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
It's a pair of triple option teams playing each other as Navy hosts Tulane. Tulane held Army to just 363 yards of offense in a 42-33 win just a few weeks ago and Willie Fritz is very familiar with the Naval Academy's offense and how they want to run it. Tulane's going off the 47-17 loss to Memphis so we know they'll be focused and angry here as well. Last year they held Navy to just 321 yards of total offense. Two years ago Navy managed just 23 points. On the other side you've got a Midshipmen team that's got an improved defense. They don't get beat often by the run with USF's 150 yards being the most allowed all season. Now they haven't been tested through the air as much as they could be here, but I still think their secondary will hold up. It'll be interesting to see if Darius Bradwell or Corey Dauphine will be available as both were limited this week and that's the bulk of the running game. Tulane has gone under in 18 of their last 31 lined games while Navy has gone under in 17 of their last 32. I think this one is an under and I'll hesitantly go against the move to the over. |
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10-26-19 | Syracuse v. Florida State UNDER 59.5 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
A pair of 3-4 teams take the field as Florida State hosts Syracuse. These two teams are awfully similar in that their offenses have been spotty while the defenses have had to be the brunt of the opposition being constantly on the field. Tommy DeVito is not the answer for the Orange as they have lost four of their last six games. The offense has scored 25 points or less five times already this year as a bad offensive line and inconsistent skill players have doomed them. The defense was supposed to be the strength of the team, but the secondary has been ravaged by injuries. On the other side, you've got an FSU team that is going between two quarterbacks although it seems like James Blackman will get the call here. Cam Akers is a fantastic running back for the home team. Their defense has had some troubles this season although most of them have come against Boise and Clemson. Syracuse has gone under in 19 of their last 31 lined games while FSU has gone under in 13 of their last 21 ACC contests. This total seems a little too high for me. |
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10-26-19 | Elon v. Rhode Island OVER 57 | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
This one could see plenty of points on Saturday. Elon is coming off a bye week after an impressive 42-7 win at home against Delaware. This team has been a mixed bag offensively as they've struggled against the better defenses they've faced putting up 10 on JMU and New Hampshire and 7 on Wake Forest. Going back even farther the team started out with 21, 35 and 42 over their first three weeks. Davis Cheek is an impressive signal caller for the Phoenix. Rhode Island is 1-6, but they are a fun 1-6. Their scores this season are 41-20, 44-36, 27-24, 31-27, 31-28, 34-17 and 35-28. The Rams have a fantastic offense with Vito Priore under center and Aaron Parker out wide. This team's offense should be able to move in this one but I don't know if they can stop the Phoenix. This one seems like it should be a shootout on Saturday. |
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10-26-19 | Liberty v. Rutgers OVER 43 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Liberty has won five in a row since an 0-2 start to the year and a lot of that is because of this offense and a relatively easy schedule. Last week I had an easy winner with the over in their game against Maine as both teams went over by themselves. Buckshot Calvert and Antonio Gandy-Golden are a potent duo and the Flames have a solid run game to offset that as well. Liberty's defense hasn't been tested that much so far and they've allowed 24 to Syracuse and 35 to ULL. Rutgers offense is awful. They've scored 30 points over their last six games with all of those coming against power five schools. The Scarlet Knights have thrown for 49 yards the last two weeks. Way back in week one, they played the lesser UMass Minutemen and won 48-21. Rutgers defense hasn't been very good and will probably continue to struggle on Saturday. The thing is, I think they can find the end zone as well. Give me the over in this one. |
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10-23-19 | Cavs v. Magic OVER 213.5 | 85-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are going to be one of the worst teams in the league and it's going to show on the defensive side of the ball. This is a team that allowed 109, 118 and 118 in their three preseason games against NBA teams. They did beat San Lorenzo 120-89, but this is a squad that may have a rookie point guard and just doesn't have a ton of talent. There is some hype for the Magic this year as they could be a playoff team. They went 3-3 in the preseason showing a propensity to score at times, but also be terrible on defense. The last three contests they allowed 100, 126 and 107 points. Last year these two played scores of 102-100, 107-93 and 120-91. I think the over hits in this one. |
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10-20-19 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 43.5 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
The Jags want to get back on track in this one after losing two straight. Jacksonville is 2-4 with three overs this season. They put up 26 in Denver and 27 in Carolina and Gardner Minshew should be able to get whatever he wants. The defense played well against New Orleans, but I wonder if the third road game in four weeks tires this team out a little bit. You can throw on them and some teams have run on them as well. Cincy is 0-6, but their offense has shown some pulses. They put up 23 on Arizona at home and 17 on the stout 49ers. They can't run it so a lot more is being put on Andy Dalton's plate. Cincy has gone over in both of their home games this season. The Bengals offense could find some success and their defense should allow Jax to do whatever they want. |
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10-19-19 | Kansas v. Texas OVER 62 | 48-50 | Win | 100 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
Texas is coming off the loss to rival Oklahoma and should be rather ornery for this one. Kansas has lost 51-14 and 45-20 in their last two games in conference play. During the bye week the team picked up a new offensive coordinator that wants to go fast. Reading the press clippings, it seems like the Jayhawks like the new energy and should be able to do something. Even if they don't, at least their possessions will go faster giving Texas the ball more. This is a Longhorns defense that has allowed 30 points or more four times this season. Good thing for them is that their offense has scored 30 or more five times. Sam Ehlinger should be able to get whatever he wants through the air. Kansas has allowed 51 and 45 in their last two conference games letting TCU and Oklahoma do whatever they want. These two played a 42-27 game in Texas two years ago. Give me the over in this one. |
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10-19-19 | Maine v. Liberty OVER 43.5 | 44-59 | Win | 100 | 66 h 16 m | Show | |
Maine was ranked in the top 25 for a lot of the season, but it's been a rough year for the Black Bears. They are coming off a 24-17 home loss to Richmond in which their starting quarterback got hurt and the star wide receiver was already out. Before that, they lost 33-17 to Villanova. The team's wins were over Colgate 35-21 and Sacred Heart 42-14. It's their second FBS opponent of the year after falling 26-18 to Georgia Southern back on September 7th. Liberty has won four straight since a two game losing streak to start the year. The offense hasn't clicked lately so maybe they'll figure some things out during the bye week as Hugh Freeze gets his fingers into this side of the ball. The defense can be exploited but New Mexico and New Mexico State weren't good enough to do it. The Flames gave up 27 to Hampton in a 62-27 win over an FCS opponent back in September. I think this one should go over the lower total. |
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10-19-19 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Missouri has been steamrolling opponents since losing to Wyoming on the road in week one. They have allowed just 58 points over their last five, but part of that is level of competition and the other thing is that all of those games were at home. This is a road game here that will feel like a home game as Vandy never draws. Missouri's offense is the one to worry about here because this feels like a name your score situation. They've got a road trip to Kentucky next so maybe they slack off towards the end, but probably not. Vandy has scored just 16 points the last two weeks against Ole Miss and UNLV. Somehow the Commodores gave up 34 points to the Runnin Rebels. The good thing is that outside of the running back Vaughn, this team has no offensive identity. They can't throw it at all with Riley Neal competing for the job. Vandy has gone under in 12 of their last 18 games including three of four this year. I think that trend continues here. |
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10-19-19 | James Madison v. William & Mary OVER 53 | 38-10 | Loss | -120 | 64 h 45 m | Show | |
William and Mary faces their second straight top five opponent as they host James Madison for homecoming after a bye week. The Tribe have scored at least 30 points in three of their four games against FCS opponents with them putting up 28 on a very good Villanova D two weeks ago. Kilton Anderson has worked well in this new go go offense that the Tribe are running and it looks like Hollis Mathis could be available as well. The WM defense has had it's issues against the better offenses giving up 35 to Nova, 39 to Albany and 52 to UVA. JMU is averaging 40.7 points per game and are averaging over 250 yards rushing. They want to go up-tempo too with their spread attack. The Dukes have put up 45, 45 and 38 in their last three conference games. The defense has been very good too although Stony Brook scored 38 while Nova put up 24. To me, the over in JMU games are almost insta-bets right now as the offense keeps rolling. |
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10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington UNDER 49 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 48 m | Show | |
Oregon is allowing just over eight points per game this year and clamps down on both the run and the pass. Since giving up 27 to Auburn in week one, the Ducks have allowed 25 points over their next five contests. Granted, this is going to be one of their biggest tests of the season offensively, but Washington's offense has struggled at times too. They broke out against Arizona last time out putting up 51, but the previous two games saw them score 41 combined. Jacob Eason hasn't worked out as well as they had thought so far. Washington's defense has held five of their seven opponents to 20 points or less. Oregon's offense runs a lot of short passes which will be hindered by the loss of Jacob Breeland who is done for the season. The Ducks have gone under in 19 of their last 31 lined games including nine of their last 11 on the road. Washington has gone under in 20 of their last 34 games. Give me the under here. |
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10-17-19 | UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 50.5 | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
There are a lot of question marks in this game on both teams. UCLA doesn't know who their starting QB will be with Dorian Thompson-Robinson questionable. If he does not play, then Austin Burton is under center and he was not very good against Oregon State. UCLA's offensive line has allowed 15 sacks this season. The Bruins have had four games scoring under 20 points with two other games where they scored 98. Theo Howard departed the team and that's a big hit for them. UCLA's defense isn't great, but I don't think Stanford can take advantage of it. KJ Costello is out, Davis Mills is questionable and Jack West is the third string QB. Cameron Scarlett figures to be busy against UCLA who is allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. Stanford also has only six healthy offensive linemen. The Cardinal's defense has allowed 28 or more three times and 21 or less three other times. They had an impressive 23-13 win over Washington last time out. Stanford has gone under in 12 of their last 21 games as a favorite. I think this game is an under on Friday too. |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama v. Troy UNDER 55 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
10-15-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 42 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
The Steelers are on their third quarterback of the season with Devlin Hodges under center for this one. Pittsburgh's offense has not gotten much on the ground from James Conner which has put more pressure on the passing game. Pittsburgh's defense has been good the last few weeks against the Bengals and Ravens. They put constant pressure on the QB and have an improved secondary with Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Chargers are 2-3 and are coming off a 20-13 loss to the Broncos in which they got nothing from the ground. This team's devoid of true offensive weapons it seems outside of Ekeler and Allen at wide receiver. We'll see if Melvin Gordon is less rusty this week because that would help. San Diego's defense has given up 20 points or less in three of their five games. Pittsburgh has gone under in 14 of their last 17 road games. LA has gone under in 25 of their last 39 including 12 of their last 18 at home. I think this one is a tightly played game. |
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10-13-19 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Baltimore is coming off a physical win over the Steelers last week and have a road trip to Seattle up next so maybe focus is an issue. The Ravens offense has scored 23 or more in every game and has been able to get Lamar Jackson going. The issue with the home team is their defense which has allowed 33, 40 and 23 the last three weeks. Baltimore's secondary is a banged up bunch and I think there's a chance that Cincy can take advantage of it. The Bengals are 0-5 this season, but have shown some pulses of offense from time to time. They scored 20 in Seattle and 23 last week against Arizona. Andy Dalton lost John Ross and AJ Green so that's a concern, but Auden Tate is a decent option. Cincy's defense is horrendous for the most part. They've given up over 170 rushing yards from three teams. The over has been a good play in Baltimore games. I think this one could see a bunch of points. |
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10-12-19 | Navy v. Tulsa OVER 53 | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
This has been a high scoring series between Navy and Tulsa. Last year the Middies won 37-29 in a game that saw them rack up 389 yards. They've been able to run on the Golden Hurricane the past few years with 421 in 2017 and 390 in 2016. Both teams could be hung over for this one after Tulsa let a huge one slip last week at SMU falling 43-37. The Golden Hurricane could struggle to run it, but I think they'll be able to throw on Navy. The Midshipmen's triple option is humming right now despite having a youngish offense. The defense hasn't been tested that much although Memphis did put up 35 on them. Both teams trend to the under, but I think this one sees a bunch of points on Saturday night. |
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10-12-19 | Arkansas v. Kentucky UNDER 54 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show | |
Kentucky's offense has been anemic especially considering all the injuries at quarterback. Terry Wilson is done for the year and Sawyer Smith is dealing with all sorts of ailments even after a bye week. The Wildcats have scored just 41 points the last three weeks against SEC opponents. They have a decent run game but are facing more crowded boxes. UK's defense has struggled the last two games against the run, but I like their defense as a whole especially at home. Arkansas is 2-3 with wins over Portland State and Colorado State and losses to Ole Miss, San Jose State and Texas A&M. Their offense can put up some good numbers, but they've also been home for the most part. The defense has actually been pretty good against the pass outside of the SJ State game. These two teams have trends that point to the under. With a total this high and an offense so inconsistent at home, I'll take a shot on the under. |
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10-12-19 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio UNDER 51.5 | 39-36 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
New year, but same old NIU as the team continues to struggle on offense and plays good enough defense. Last week was the perfect example as they lost 27-20 to Ball State in a contest that saw them hold the Cardinals to less then 300 yards of offense, but struggle to do much after a fast start. It's hard to figure out this Huskies team as they beat an FCS team then lost three straight to power five schools. This is their fourth road game over the last five and that could be a factor. Ohio's 2-3 and that's a real surprise considering how we all practically handed them the MAC East before the season. This team's offense is not clicking through the air and the defense is really inconsistent. Part of these numbers are because of the level of competition. Giving up almost 300 rushing yards to ULL is to be expected considering how well they run it. These two played a 24-21 game last year. NIU has gone under in 19 of their last 32 including 11 of their last 14 when the total is between 49.5 and 56. When the total is this high in an NIU game, I like to jump on the under. |
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10-12-19 | Old Dominion v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
Marshall is a disappointing 2-3 so far this season and one can point to their offense being a let down the last two games and the defense struggling from time to time as well. Somehow last week they racked up nearly 600 yards of offense, but only scored 13 points. They've put up 14 points or less three times this season as things just haven't been consistent. On defense, they were thrashed by Cincinnati and Ohio, but were able to hold their own against some of the other teams on their schedule. ODU has gone under in every game and it's because of a non-existent run game, an inconsistent passing game and a defense that's played better then we thought. The Monarchs have scored 82 points in five contests so far and have held three opponents to 24 or less. They are pretty stout against the run and have played the pass pretty well as well. Marshall has gone under in 10 of their last 17 C-USA games. Give me the under here. |
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10-11-19 | Colorado v. Oregon UNDER 60.5 | 3-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Colorado is putting up very good numbers on offense, but the injuries continue to come for the Buffs. Right now Laviska Shenault Jr and K.D. Nixon are dealing with ailments and may not be available for this one. Colorado's rushing attack has not approached the effort it put up in week one against Colorado State although it's getting better. The problems for them are on defense where they've allowed 30 points or more in every game. Oregon's D doesn't mess around as they've allowed 22 points the last four weeks against Nevada, Montana, Stanford and Cal. They clamp down on the opposition's run game and have been very difficult to throw on. Oregon's offense has exploded just once against an FBS opponent when they put up 77 on Nevada after the loss to Auburn. Feels like they've gone through the motions a little bit and Verdell the running back is a little banged up but will play. Up next is a road trip to Washington so they may not show a ton of new stuff either? Colorado has gone under in 13 of their last 15 games as an underdog and 15 of their last 29 overall. The Ducks have gone under in 18 of their last 30 including three of four this season. Give me the under in this one. |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State OVER 61 | 24-14 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
It's Sun Belt action on a Thursday as Texas State hosts Louisiana Monroe. I can't believe I'm getting involved in another Bobcats game, but here we are. Texas State has won two straight since a three game losing streak to start out the year. The offense has started to perk up a bit scoring 37 against Georgia State and 24 against Nicholls State. Now with some extra time off, Jake Spavital can add a little more to the playbook and put Gresh Jensen in a good place to succeed. ULM's defense is nothing special allowing 45 to FSU, 72 to Iowa State and 52 to Memphis. Even in their 30-17 win over South Alabama, the Warhawks allowed almost 400 yards of offense. The good thing for them is that this offense is smoking right now. Caleb Evans is a very good quarterback who runs this RPO system extremely well. They've scored 20 or more in every contest. The concern here is that this team is playing five days after losing 52-33 at home to Memphis. I think we could see a boatload of points here with potentially the home underdog getting the win. |
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10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins OVER 9 | 5-1 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
10-06-19 | Patriots v. Redskins OVER 42 | 33-7 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
The Patriots are coming off a rare poor effort offensively and will want to flex their muscles against the lowly Redskins. New England beat Buffalo 16-10 managing under 230 yards of offense total in that one. The defense has been incredible so far and that will most likely continue, but I really think Tom Brady and the boys want to get all the kinks out. They've scored 33, 43 and 30 in their other three contests. It's a bit of a worry that their next game is on a Thursday night so there's a chance the backups come in late. The Redskins have allowed 32, 31, 31 and 24 this season and have shown no direction defensively. On offense, they can't run the ball and the passing attack has disappeared a bit. Looks like no Jordan Reed on offense and Colt McCoy is under center. The veteran is who Jay Gruden wanted to start all along so we may see a little more offense from the team out of DC. I think the road team wins this one easily and scores a ton as well. I could see this being a 35-10 type game. |
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10-05-19 | Tulsa v. SMU OVER 62.5 | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
SMU has been the best story in college football as they are 5-0 with an offense that is averaging over 500 yards per game and 44.4 points. Their defense has been leaky but it hasn't mattered much. They gave up 30 to Arkansas State, 38 to TCU and 27 to North Texas. Shane Buechele has been a revelation coming over from Texas, but it's the WRs and the solid group of backs that have made the Mustangs go. Tulsa is 2-2 on the year and is coming off a bye week after a 24-21 win over Wyoming. They've had a really tough schedule with contests against Michigan State and Oklahoma State already. The Cowboys got whatever they wanted to on offense and Michigan State may have as well if they didn't have the issues with turnovers. Tulsa has gone under in all of their games and SMU has gone over in all of theirs. I just don't know how Tulsa slows them down in this one. Give me the over here. |
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10-05-19 | James Madison v. Stony Brook OVER 41 | Top | 45-38 | Win | 100 | 42 h 55 m | Show |
I've made so much money betting on the overs in JMU games because for some reason Vegas is tragically underrating the Dukes. JMU has scored 44, 63, 37 and 45 in their FCS games this season. They racked up over 300 yards of rushing in the win over Elon last week and is now playing their third straight road game in a semi sandwich situation. They are coming off a win against the head coach's former school and have a home game against 5th ranked Villanova next week. I have to think this defense which has been fantastic will give up some points. Granted, they've allowed 7, 12, 14 and 10 so far. Stony Brook is 4-1 and is coming off a 31-27 win over Rhode Island last week. They have the best offense in the CAA and are averaging nearly 30 points per contest. Last year's contest was a 13-10 game in Harrisonburg which is a concern, but I think both teams are better in 2019. Give me the over at this really low number. These two defenses could stop the other, but I'll take a shot that the offenses rule the day. |
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10-05-19 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 54.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a really high total for an NIU game. The Huskies have gone under in 10 of their last 13 games when the total is between 49.5 and 56. This is a team that plays ball control offense and has a pretty good defense. Overall, they've gone under in 18 of their last 31 games overall. Northern Illinois is a hard team to figure out because they've played one FCS opponent and then were on the road against Utah, Nebraska and Vandy who are all power five squads. The one thing I did notice is that they've been pretty good against the pass which will be important against Ball State. NIU's offense isn't running it very well, but Ross Bowers is doing some good things through the air. The Cardinals are 1-3 on the season with the win coming over Fordham of the FCS and the losses were to Indiana, FAU and NC State. BSU wants to chuck it all over the yard with Plitt under center and his bevy of wide receivers. Their defense is a question mark, but it's also faced better talent much like NIU. Last year this was a 24-16 game that went to the road team. I think we could see a similar score. |
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10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo OVER 73.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Toledo is 3-1 entering this matchup and has their usual stout offense to rely on. The QB is on point despite having essentially a new wide receiving corps. What the Rockets are doing is running it down people's throats with the Koback kid at running back. The Rockets scored 45 on Murray State, 41 on Colorado State and 28 on BYU. Toledo's defense is ranked 120th out of 130, but they are 59th in the nation in red zone defense. Western Michigan has scored 48, 17, 57, 33 and 31 this season with Jon Wassink under center. He was a little banged up but should be good for this one. LeVante Bellamy is a solid running back and their defense is like Toledo's in that it struggles against the better teams. They allowed 51 at Michigan State and 52 at Syracuse. Last year this was a 51-24 game in Kalamazoo. WMU has gone over in seven of their last 11 as an underdog and 17 of their last 30 overall. Toledo has gone over in 17 of their last 30 as well. |