Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-11-21 | Brewers +100 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Game 3 Series Tie-Breaker is on the Mil Brewers at 1:07 ET. The Atlanta Braves fought through key injuries to offensive stars and starting pitchers to win their FOURTH consecutive NL East crown with a record of 88-73 (6 1/2-games clear of the Phillies). The Braves were in third place, 2 1/2 games under .500 on Aug 1 but Atlanta clinched the NL East with a sweep of second-place Philadelphia in the next-to-last series. Meanwhile, the Brewers clinched their FOURTH consecutive playoff berth on Sep 18, but went 4-10 the rest of the way. Three of those victories were in a Central-clinching home sweep of the Mets. 95-67 Milwaukee dropped FIVE of six in a season-ending road trip against the Cardinals and Dodgers to finish, weighing rest against momentum. |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 129 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic (AFC Champ Game Rematch) is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The 3-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday Night Football in what will be a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Buffalo led 9-0 after the first quarter in that one but KC pulled away for a 38-24 win. The Bills stumbled in Week 1 at home vs the Steelers, getting outscored in the 4th quarter 16-7 in a loss. However, Buffalo won 35-0 (at Miami), then 43-10 and 40-0 in home games against Washington and Houston, respectively. As for the Chiefs, they trailed most of the way in Week 1 at home vs Cleveland, before winning 33-29. KC then lost 36-35 at Baltimore (SNF) and 30-24 at home to the Chargers. Last week's 42-30 win at Philly prevented Patrick Mahomes from losing a third straight game for the first in his career plus also ended an 0-10-1 ATS regular season losing run by the Chiefs!
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox -115 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi White Sox at 8:07 ET. The Chicago White Sox broke an 11-year playoff drought in 2020 (35-25) and this season won the AL Central with a 93-69 record, giving the team its first division title since 2008. Chicago's opponent in this ALDS is the Houston Astros, the team everyone now loves to hate. Houston won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but a sign-stealing scandal changed the way the team's accomplishments were viewed. The Astros snuck into the 2020 postseason at 29-31 but then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before losing to the Rays. The Astros are back in their FIFTH straight postseason, after going 95-67. This best of five series opened Thursday, with Houston winning handily, 6-1, a game I passed. However, I didn't miss out on Houston's 9-4 Game 2 win, which puts the team ONE win away from an ALDS sweep and a FIFTH straight berth in the ALCS. Houston will visit the Chicago White Sox on Sunday night for Game 3 of the teams' ALDS with a 2-0 lead, clicking on the mound and at the plate. Houston pitchers have allowed just five runs and all 18 hits given up have been SINGLES. The Astros have plated 15 runs, while batting .308, including .421 (8 of 19) with RISP. The two playoff wins makes Houston 6-0 in six games at Minute Maid Park in 2021, as the Astros have outscored the White Sox 42-13! However, as Chicago shortstop Tim Anderson said, "Ain't nothing like being at home!" The White Sox expect to be buoyed by a fan base awaiting the franchise's first home playoff game since 2008 but they also know they need more than singles to turn the series around. Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Dylan Cease (13-7, 3.91 ERA) for Chicago. Looking a little closer at Garcia's numbers we find that in 15 home appearances (13 starts), he's got a 2.39 ERA, folding opponents to a .210 BAA. However in 15 road appearances (all starts), his ERA is 4.24 and opponents are batting .252. That should give Chicago batters some hope and let me note that the White Sox owned the AL's best home record (53-8) during 2021's regular season. Cease was just 9-11 over 26 starts in 2019 and 2020, so his 13-7 mark in 2021 surely qualifies as a 'breakout' year. Cease's season has 'flown under the radar' when one considers that over his last 15 starts, he's held opponents to three ERs or less 14 times. The exception being him allowing seven ERs at Boston on Sep 11. However, over his final three starts after than one, he allowed just one ER over 14.1 innings (0.63 ERA) with 24 strikeouts against ONE walk. This series will move to a Game 4 on Monday. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46 | Top | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* "Featured" Sunday O/U is on Cle/LAC Over at 4:05 ET. A pair of 3-1 teams meet Sunday in Los Angeles, as the Browns take on the Chargers. Kevin Stefanski took over as Cleveland's head coach last season and led them to an 11-5 record, the team's first winning record since 2007 (ending a 12-year drought of sub-.500 seasons). More importantly, the Browns made the postseason, ending a 17-year drought. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers in the wild card round, before falling to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Cleveland opened 2021 with a hard-luck 33-29 loss at KC but has won three in a row since to put them in a three-way tie atop the AFC North with Baltimore and Cincinnati (all 3-1). The Chargers dumped head coach Anthony Lynn after last season (12-20 in 2109 and 2020) and hired Brandon Staley. He's made a BIG difference already, as the Chargers are also off to a 3-1 (currently are in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Raiders). Los Angeles won 20-16 at Washington in Week 1, before falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!). However, the Chargers have been 'cooking' with an impressive 30-24 victory at KC in Week 3 and then a 28-14 Week 4 MNF win at home against the previously unbeaten Raiders! Both teams are 'hungry' for a win, playing in highly competitive divisions. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield really stepped up last season, completing 62.8% for 3,356 yards He's completing 65.5% this season for 935 yards, which is an average of 233.8 YPG (last year's average was 222.7 YPG). However, he had a 26-8 TD-to-INT ratio last season but it's just 2-2 after four games in 2021. The offense has relied more on the one-two RB duo of Chubb (362 yards on 5.2 YPC) and Hunt (234 yards on 5.4 YPC). Cleveland enters No. 1 in the NFL by averaging 177.0 YPG. 'Flying under the radar' is the Cleveland D, allowing 16.8 PPG (4th) on 250.3 YPG (2nd). Justin Herbert of LA outplayed Derek Carr Monday night, completing 25 of 38 for 222 yards with three TDs and no INTs. He's completing 68.9% on the season for 1,178 yards with nine TDs and three INTs. RB Ekeler ran for 117 yards (one TD) plus caught a TD pass. This all-purpose back has run for 283 yards on 5.7 YPC with four TDs plus has 18 receptions and one TD. WRs Allen (28) and Williams (23) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (12 catches) is solid. The LA defense is not quite in Cleveland's class but is allowing just 18.5 PPG (7th) on 332.0 YPG (9th). So why go over? The Browns are on the road for a second straight week and are coming off their worst offensive effort of the season, a 14-7 win at Minnesota. Cleveland gained a season-low 327 yards vs the Vikings, after averaging 410.0 YPG while scoring 28.7 PPG its first three games! Mayfield is way OVERDUE for a big game and up against Herbert (who is "the REAL deal"), should rise to the challenge. Could we see two "gun-slingers" go toe-to-toe in this one? My bet says, "Yes we can!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET, The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions 24-14 at home in Week 4, evening their record at 2-2. Rookie Justin Fields got the start at QB for the injured Dalton and he looked better than his previous game (11 of 17 for 209 yards with no TDs and one INT) but most feel he's NOT ready for primetime. Chicago's running game produced 188 yards and accounted for all three TDs. The Bears visit Las Vegas on Sunday to take on the Raiders, who lost for the first time in Week 4's MNF contest 28-14 to the Chargers. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. That marked the Raiders 1st 3-0 start since 2002. However, the Raiders fell behind the Chargers 21-0 last Monday and lost 28-14. As noted above, no one is quite sure about Fields' viability as a starting QB. RB Montgomery ran for 106 yards and two TDs in the win over the Lions and has 309 yards on the season (4.5 YPC / 3 TDs). Robinson caught 102 passes last season and 98 in 2019 but is off to a slower start in 2021 with 13 catches. Mooney caught 61 passes as a rookie and has 17 this year. A quality QB would help. The Chicago defense is solid, allowing 22.8 PPG (10th) on 350.0 YPG (12th). Carr was outplayed by Herbert on MNF but is completing 64.1% for 1,399 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs on the season. The problem for the Las Vegas offense is that RB Jacobs has not been healthy. He returned Monday night and had just 40 yards on 13 carries. He's coming off seasons of 1,065 and 1,150 yards. The Raiders are averaging just 80.5 PPG (27th), which is about 40 yards less per game than the last two seasons. TE Waller (24 catches) is "big time" plus Carr has three WRs that make contributions. Renfro leads with 22 catches, Ruggs has 14 while averaging 21.2 YPC and Edwards has only 11 catches but averages 19.5 YPC. The Las Vegas defense is no better than mediocre, allowing 25.0 PPG on 36.1 YPG (both ranks 19th). Excellent bounce-back spot for Las Vegas, who sits in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Chargers. Meanwhile, it's hard to ignore that Chicago is 0-2 on the road, having scored just 20 points, while allowing 60 points. Lay it with the Ray-Dahs. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-21 | Saints -1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Drew Brees finally retired after a Hall of Fame career with the New Orleans. Brees led the Saints to their lone Super Bowl title (after the 2009 season) and even though his arm strength had noticeably dropped off, he still led New Orleans to first-place finishes in the NFC South in each of his final four seasons (winning 11, 13 , 13 and 12 games). The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 win over Green Bay in Week 1 (moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida), handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. New Orleans then lost 26-17 at Carolina and won 28-13 at New England, before losing its delayed home opener last Sunday, 27-21 to the Giants in OT. The Saints are back on the road in Week 5, playing at 2-2 Washington. Washington won the NFC 'Least' in 2020 with a 7-9 record but the Football Team will have to do better than that here in 2021, as 3-1 Dallas looks pretty good. In truth, Washington is lucky NOT to be 1-3, as Heinicke rallied them with two late TD passes, the game-winner coming with about 30 seconds to go was honestly, a 'miracle.' Let me add that the team's first win against the Giants, came when the Giants committed an incredibly stupid offsides penalty on a FG attempt that missed, with Washington winning when it got a second-chance reprieve. The New Orleans passing offense 'left town' with Brees, as while Winston is completing 64.0% with eight TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating), Washington ranks 31st of 32 NFL teams with 144.0 YPG game passing. All-everything RB Alvin Kamara has not looked anything like the player who ran for 932 yards (5.0 YPC / 16 TDs) and caught 83 passes for another five TDs in 2020. However, the Saints D has played well, allowing 17.3 PPG (5th) on 349.3 YPG (11th). The QB from Old Dominion, Taylor Heinicke, has proven he belongs in the NFL, He's completing 69.5% for 960 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 105.9). However, he gets little help from a running game averaging 103.3 YPG (19th). Washington's defense carried the team to the divisional title and a playoff game last season but this year's unit is GREATLY underachieving. Washington allowed just 304.6 YPG (2nd) in 2020 but has allowed 417.5 YPG (29th) after four games of 2021. What's more, after allowing 20.6 PPG last season, Washington is allowing right at 10 PPG more here in 2021 (30.5 PPG to rank 30th). The Saints are down a notch but are still more than capable. The Saints enter on an impressive 16-7 ATS run as a road favorite and we are getting a bargain here (imagine what the line would be if Washington was 0-4?). Expect New Orleans to treat this as a HUGE game, as the Bucs and Panthers have both opened 3-1 and the Saints catch their bye next weekend, after paying FOUR of their first five away from home. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 25-22 | Push | 0 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Packers and Bengals in a showdown of two 3-1 teams in Week 5 seems like a misprint! However, that's EXACTLY what we have on Sunday. Green Bay got blasted 38-3 in Week 1 by the Saints (game played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida), as Aaron Rodgers suffered the worst loss of his professional career (was just 15 of 28 for 133 yards with two INTs!). However, the Packers have responded with three consecutive wins and covers, with Rodgers completing 67.7% for 764 yards with 8 TDs and zero INTs in 96 attempts. As for the Bengals, second-year QB Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to a 3-1 start as well, completing 72.9% for 988 yards with 9 TDs and 4 INTs. The Packers have rebounded from a season-opening loss to New Orleans by remaining aggressive and confident on both sides of the ball. Rodgers is back to being his 'old self' plus RB Jones is coming around. He has 206 rushing yards (2 TDs) plus 13 catches with 3 TDs. WR Adams has 31 catches and fellow WR Cobb is back healthy. He caught just four passes in his first three games but had five receptions and two TDs in last Sunday's win. The Green Bay defense has come back with a vengeance after the New Orleans' debacle and is allowing a modest 311.5 YPG (6th). The Packers are allowing 25.0 PPG but just 20.7 PPG since that Week 1 loss. Burrow is finally getting some help from his running game, as Joe Mixon has begun fulfilling his potential by running for 353 yards on 4.3 YPC with two TDs. WR Boyd leads with 23 receptions but Chase is the team's "big play" receiver, averaging 17.5 YPC with four TDs on his 17 grabs. MAJOR improvement is being shown by Cincy's D, as after allowing 26.6, 26.3 and 28.4 PPG the previous three seasons, the Bengals stop unit is actually stopping opponents. Cincinnati enters allowing 323.0 YPG (7th) and 18.8 PPG (8th). Cincy's schedule up until now hasn't been much of a 'tester' but here's an opportunity to prove that the team is a legitimate division and playoff contender against a quality opponent. Is it possible that Green Bay is 'fat' and happy having reeled off three consecutive victories? Could be? The Packers also travel to Chicago next week to renew the NFL's oldest-running rivalry. Cincinnati leads the all-time series 7-6 and boasts victories in THREE of the last four meetings, as the Bengals are 2-0 against the Packers at Paul Brown Stadium in that stretch. Does it matter that the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series? It certainly doesn't hurt! The Bengals are in a fantastic ambush spot as a home ‘dog. 'Bow Wow!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | Utah +3 v. USC | Top | 42-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Pac-12 Game of the Year is on Utah at 8:00 ET. A pair of teams with disappointing starts to their respective 2021 seasons square off in the LA Coliseum on Saturday night, as the 2-2 Utah Utes visit the 3-2 USC Trojans. Utah was ranked 24th in the AP's preseason poll and USC was ranked 15th. However, Utah has lost to both of the quality teams it has played in the early going, falling 26-17 at BYU (snapped a nine-game winning streak over its longtime rival) and 33-31 in OT at San Diego St. Yes, BYU is ranked 10th and SD State just moved into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday but there is NO overlooking that the Utes check in at 0-4 ATS. USC comes in 3-2 after last weekend's 37-14 victory at Colorado as a 9.5 point favorite. However, the Trojans have surely had their ups and downs in 2021. They lost 42-28 at home vs Stanford as an 18-point favorite, a loss that cost Clay Helton his job. Taking over is Donte Williams (first-ever head coaching job) and he lost his second game, 45-27 against Oregon St, again at home and again as a sizeable favorite of 10 points. Something tells me Williams will be 'looking over his shoulder' all season, as rumors abound that USC is looking for a "big name" head coach. Can you say Urban Meyer. Utah had hoped for big things from Charlie Brewer, who came from Baylor where he had 65 TDs and 28 INTs. However, he was benched during the SD St loss, with Cameron Rising going 19 of 32 for 153 yards with three TDs and no INTs. Rising started in the 24-13 win over Washington St but was just a modest 13 of 23 for 137 yards. However, he didn't throw a TD pass and he's thrown 55 passes without an INT the last two games. He's the better choice these days and the Utah defense is solid, allowing 302.3 YPG (25th) and 22.3 PPG. Utah's defensive strength is its pass D, allowing 163.5 YPG to rank 13th. USC is no longer called "Tailback U," as the Trojans are now a passing team. That's the case again in 2021 with Kedon Slovis completing 64.6% for 1,118 yards but he has a modest seven TD passes with four INTs. WR London leads the nation with 48 catches, grabbing four TDs. RB Ingram is solid (359 yards on 5.8 YPC) but the team's average of 137.4 YPG on the ground ranks only 91st. The USC defense allows 24.4 PPG (70th) on 361.4 YPG (61st). Utah is in a very good spot here, having last week off and despite its 2-2 start, is 1-0 in Pac 12 play. USC has lost its last two home games (SU as big double-digit favorites), while allowing a combined 87 points! USC is off next weekend and then plays Notre Dame in one of the nation's biggest (if not THE biggest) intersectional rivalries. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has led Utah to 13 bowls in 15 years (10-3), before the school declined to play in a bowl last year (COVID). He squares off against a VERY inexperienced head coach plus brings a 12-2 ATS record as a road dog into this contest going back to 2014. Meanwhile, USC comes in 8-14 as a home favorite since 2017. I'm calling for the SU win but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on LSU at 7:30 ET. Joe Burrow elevated Ed Orgeron to the status coaching 'genius' in 2019, leading LSU to one of CFB's best-ever single seasons. The 2019 Tigers would go 15-0 (11-4 ATS), outscoring opponents 48.4 PPG-to-21.9 PPG. However, LSU fell to 5-5 in COVID's 2020 season, while averaging 32.0 PPG and allowing 34.9 PPG. LSU opened the current season with a 38-27 loss at UCLA, before winning home games over McNeese ST (34-7) and Central Michigan (49-21). LSU picked up an impressive 28-25 win at Miss St on the final Saturday of September (lead 28-10 in the mid-4th quarter) but then blew a 13-point lead at home in a 24-19 loss to Auburn this past Saturday. The Tigers are now on the road this Saturday at Kentucky. How 'bout dem Wildcats! Kentucky held off then-No. 10 Florida last Saturday, winning 20-13 at home. It marked Kentucky's first home win over the Gators since 1986 and catapulted the Wildcats into the AP top-25 for the first time this year at No. 16. Kentucky has started 5-0 for just the third time in its last 35 years, with two of those perfect starts coming under head coach Mark Stoops. Stoops led Kentucky to a 5-0 start in 2018 and the Wildcats finished 10-3, including a 27-24 Citrus Bowl win over No. 13 Penn St. QB Max Johnson has thrown for 1,469 yards (62.45 completions / 16 TDs and 4 INTs) but gets almost NO help from an LS+U running game producing a pathetic 70.8 YPG (128th) on 2.4 YPC. Johnson has one of the nation's best WRs in Boutte, who has 30 receptions and an FBS-high nine TD grabs! The LSU defense is about average, allowing 23.0 PPG (59th) on 369.6 YPG (67th). However, it's quite an improvement over last year's unit which allowed 34.9 PPG on 492.0 YPG! Kentucky QB Will Levis completes 61.2% for 989 yards with eight TDs but also six INTs. The running game ranks 36th, averaging 191.0 YPG, led by Rodriguez (612 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). However, it's the Kentucky defense that leads the way, allowing 16.8 PPG (21st) on 284.6 YPG (12th). That Wildcat D came up HUGE last Saturday, as Florida had 1st and goal opportunities two times and failed to tie it up EIGHT in eight tries! Here's the 'dope.' The Kentucky offense left MUCH to be desired vs Florida, converting just one of nine third downs, gaining just 224 yards, as Levis completed just seven passes in 17 attempts for 87 yards. At 3-2, this is a HUGE game for LSU. These two haven’t met since 2014 and LSU has won SIX of the last seven meetings. LSU is 10-3 SU & ATS vs the SEC East while Kentucky is just 1-9 SU against SEC West foes, excluding Miss St (annual Egg Bowl opponent). Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | TCU -1.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Big 12 Game of the Week is on TCU at 7:00 ET. 2-2 TCU takes on 4-1 Texas Tech Saturday in Lubbock. TCU head coach Garry Patterson is in his 21st season with the Horned Frogs and has accrued some legacy. He's led TCU to 16 bowls in his first 20 seasons (a 17th appearance was canceled in 2020) and he's posted 11 seasons of 10-plus wins. From 2008-11 (a four-year span), TCU went 47-5, including 13-0 in 2010. TCU had 12-1 seasons in 2009 and 2014. However, the team entered this season on a three-year run of just 18-17. Texas Tech's Matt Wells ins in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. However, the Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons. That's changed in 2021, as Tech has opened 4-1. The Horned Frogs opened 2-0 but then lost 42-34 to rival SMU on Sep 25 and followed with a hard-fought 32-27 last Saturday against Texas (note: TT lost 70-35 to Texas!). QB Max Duggan (63.2% for 899 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 143 rushing yards and two TDs) leads a well-balanced offense. TCU is averaging 197.0 YPG rushing, led by Zach Evans (443 yards on 7.8 YPC with 3 TDs). The offense is averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) but the defense is not a strength like in years past, allowing 27.3 PPG (85th) on 397.3 YPG (83rd). Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough will be out for several more weeks with a broken collarbone, so Henry Colombi, who has filled in the last two games, will again get the start. He entered in the 70-35 loss to Texas and passed for 324 yards with three TDs (one INT). He was 23 of 34 for 266 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) in last Saturday's 23-20 upset at West Va. Texas Tech's defense struggles much like TCU's (that 70 points vs Texas won't go away), allowing 30.8 PPG (102nd). Tech's 23-20 victory at West Virginia last week helped Texas Tech chase away the aftertaste of a 70-35 loss at Texas the week before, while TCU is in a different kind of mood after its comeback bid against the Longhorns fizzled in a 32-27 setback last week. "We can't feel sorry for ourselves," Max Duggan said. "Going in two weeks straight with a loss is going to suck, but nobody is going to feel bad for us. Texas Tech isn't going to feel sorry for us." After their big road win in West Virginia, I think a bit of a letdown is in order here for the Red Raiders, while conversely, after back-to-back losses, this one absolutely "means more" to the hungry Horned Frogs. Note that TCU last lost THREE games in a row back in 2018, while Texas Tech is on a 1-6 ATS slide off an ATS win. This showdown is dubbed "The Battle for the Saddle" and expect for TCU to 'ride away' with it on Saturday. Good luck...Larry |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +6 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -111 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Rutgers at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 5-0 start, the Spartans are now knocking at the door for a top-10 ranking (moved up to No. 11 in the AP's poll last Sunday). Michigan St visits Piscataway, NJ at "high noon" on Saturday, taking on 3-2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights' head coach is Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the school. Schiano led Rutgers to SIX bowls in a seven-year span (2005-2011), winning his last five bowls, before taking over the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. He went 7-9 and 4-12 and THAT was THAT. He returned to Rutgers in the COVID year of 2020 and went 3-6. The question looms, is Mich St really a top-10 team? QB Payton Thorne is completing 63.1% for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. the running game is averaging 210.8 YPG (24th), led by the nation's leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who has 680 yards on 6.8 YPC (136.0 YPG). He's got nine TDs, eight rushing. WR Jayden Reed has 20 catches for 468 yards (23.1 YPC) and five TDs. Reed leads all major-college players in all-purpose yardage, with 176.6 per game. He has caught at least one TD pass in the last four games and he's returned a punt for a touchdown in two consecutive games. Throw in a Michigan St defense that's allowing just 20.6 PPG (39th) and maybe the answer is yes, the Spartans are that good! That said, beware of Rutgers. If one just looks at last Saturday's 52-13 loss last Saturday at Ohio St, you could be missing something. Rutgers' defense was shredded for 541 yards and failed to produce a takeaway for the third straight game. Ohio State led 45-6 at halftime. Yes, Rutgers can't play with Ohio St (Buckeyes have scored at least 49 points in EIGHT straight wins) but look at the team's first four games. Rutgers opened 3-0 and then played Michigan (5-0 start and has NEVER trailed all season) even in a 20-13 loss. The defense held Michigan to just 275 total yards, including 112 rushing yards (Wolverines have averaged 255.0 YPG on the ground for the season). Rutgers doesn't have the skill position players on offense that Michigan St does but I believe Rutgers has the BETTER defense. A closer look at the Spartans' D shows that while it has allowed 20.3 PPG, it has also allowed 428.8 YPG (101st). Maybe Rutgers' QB Vedral (66.7% for 914 yards) with six TDs and three INTs (all three picks came vs Ohio St!) plus RB Pacheco (267 yards on 3.8 YPC with 3 TDs) can have success here at home. Getting back to the Rutgers' D, despite the horrific effort vs Ohio St, Rutgers is still allowing 21.2 PPG (42nd) on 320.2 YPG (40th). Prior to the Ohio St contest and INCLUDING the game vs Michigan, Rutgers had allowed 13.5 PPG on 265.0 YPG. Referring to the Ohio St game, Greg Schiano said he wants that loss to sting. "I hope we can't put it behind us that quickly," he said. "That wasn't a great outing, so we have to get to work and that's what we did. Hopefully, those kinds of things fuel you a little bit and get you cranking here early in the week." The Scarlet Knights took the Wolverines "down to the wire," and this is exactly the same sort of competitive affair that I expect to see from Rutgers here as well, after the back-to-back losses. Upset Alert? I think so but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +109 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 109 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the SF Giants at 9:37 ET. The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants will go head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1. The starters for Game 1 are quite a duo. Walker Buehler of the Dodgers (16-4, 2.47 ERA) sports the third-best ERA in all of baseball and owns a 7-1 (2.49 ERA) career record over the Dodgers in 11 starts (LA is 8-3). Then there is Logan Webb (11-3, 3.03 ERA) of the Giants. Webb's last loss came way back on May 5, as over his last 20 starts, he's 10-0 with the Giants going 18-2. The Giants went 21-5 in Webb's starts this season, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (+$1,283) among starters. Walker is an elite pitcher but do you really want to go against Webb? Could the Dodgers have a small mental letdown here? After all, they won 18 of their final 21 games in 2021 games (seven in a row to close the regular season) but still fell ONE game shy of catching the Giants. That forced this 106-win team into a "winner-take-all" one-game wild card contest vs the Cards, a game that wasn't decided until the bottom of the 9th (see above). Let me add that after the Dodgers beat the Giants in their first four meetings this season, they dropped 10 of the last 15. As for Buehler, he conceded 14 ERs over his final three road starts (lasting just 12.2 innings for a 9.95 ERA), including getting shelled for six runs in his last start at Oracle Park on Sep 5 (lasted three innings). Getting back to Webb, he's faced the Dodgers three times in 2021 (matched up against 20-game winner Urias in each one) with the Giants winning all THREE, as Webb allowed four ERs over 16 innings for a 2.25 ERA. Giants take Game 1. Good luck...Larry |
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10-08-21 | White Sox v. Astros -122 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* "1st Pitch" is on the Hou Astros at 2:07 ET. The Chicago White Sox broke an 11-year playoff drought in 2020 (35-25) and this season won the AL Central with a 93-69 record, giving the team its first division title since 2008. Chicago's opponent in this ALDS is the Houston Astros, the team everyone now loves to hate. Houston won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but a sign-stealing scandal changed the way the team's accomplishments were viewed. The Astros snuck into the 2020 postseason at 29-31 but then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before losing to the Rays. The Astros are back in their FIFTH straight postseason, after going 95-67. |
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10-07-21 | Rams -1 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Week is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams in a package involving Jared Goff and made his Rams debut during Sunday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. He threw for 321 yards and three TDs with a career-best 156.1 passer rating as the Rams won 34–14. In Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, Stafford led the Rams to a 27-24 win while throwing for 278 yards, two TDs, and one interception. Then, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford threw for 343 yards and four TDs as the Rams won 34–24. Stafford's and the Rams' luck ran out last Sunday, falling 37-20 at Arizona. Note, the Cards are the NFL's lone 4-0 team. Fellow NFC West rival, the Seattle Seahawks, have been all over the map in the consistency department. Seattle opened with a 28-16 win at Indianapolis before back-to-back losses at home 33-30 to the Titans and on the road 30-17 at Minnesota. Seattle got a much-needed road win 28-21 in San Francisco last Sunday. Talking about QB play, Russell Wilson is completing 72.5% for 1,044 yards with nine TDs and not a single interception in 109 attempts, giving him a QB rating of 129.9. Stafford is completing 68.1% for 1,222 with 11 TDs and two INTs for a 117.8 rating. He is blessed with two vet WRs in Kupp (30 catches and five TDs) and Woods (15 catches with two TDs). Let me note that both Kupp and Woods have each caught 90 passes or more the last two seasons. TE Higbee (15 catches) is solid and second-year WR Jefferson has 13 catches, after catching just 19 all of last season. Wilson earned his 100th win Sunday (this is his 10th season) and also has two quality WRs in Locket and Metcalf. Both have caught 30 balls with three TDs apiece. RB Carson 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs gives Seattle a slight advantage in the running game. A HUGE problem has been Seattle's OL issues, which has allowed 11 sacks (Rams' D has 12 sacks). Both defenses have struggled but Seattle has the BIGGER issues! Seattle is last in total defense (444.5 YPG) and its pass D has made just one INT in 157 attempts, while allowing eight TD passes. It's hard to find a flaw in Wilson but Stafford has found a 'home' in LA under head coach Sean McVay and his numbers are very comparable to Wilson after four games. McVay is in his fifth season with the Rams, winning 10-plus games in THREE of his first four. McVay owns an excellent record on the road since 2017, going an impressive 22-11 SU. I had the Seahawks over San Francisco last Sunday but Thursday, my NFC West Game of the Week play is on the Rams! Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card Total of the Year is on NYY/Bos Over at 8:08 ET. The wild card race in the AL came down to the 162nd game, as the Yankees, Red Sox, Glue Jays and Mariners could have all ended the regular season with a 91-71 record, IF New York and Boston had both lost, while Toronto and Seattle had both won. As it turned out, the Yankees scored in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Rays 1-0 and the Red Sox overcame a 5-0 deficit to the Nats (in DC) to win 7-5, on a two-run HR in the 9th. Toronto did win on Sunday but fell ONE game shy of New York and Boston at 91-71 (Seattle lost to come up two games short). Not for nothing but the AL East is the first division with four 90-win teams since MLB split each league into three divisions (1994).
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET. The Chargers and Raiders were "original members" of the AFL back in 1960. The Chargers began in LA, spent most of their history in San Diego but recently find themselves back in "The City of Angels." The Raiders began in Oakland, 'escaped' to LA, returned to Oakland and now reside in "Sin City." The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West in each of the last FIVE seasons but currently reside in last-place at 2-2. Oakland leads the division at 3-0, the Broncos are 3-1 and the Chargers 2-1. The set-up is simple, the Raiders move to 4-0 with a win, while if the Chargers win, that will make it a three-way tie atop the division (Broncos, Chargers and Raiders would all be 3-1). However, a Chargers loss drops them into last-place at 2-2 with the Chiefs. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. Los Angeles got to 2-1 with a 20-16 Week 1 win at Washington, before then falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!), The Chargers were 'cooking' in Week 3 on the road and they left Kansas City with an impressive 30-24 victory. QB Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards while guiding the Las Vegas Raiders to the franchise's first 3-0 start since 2002. Carr has passed for over 4,000 in each of the last three seasons but he's on pace for a very special season in 2021. He's completing 64.7% for 1,203 yards with six TDs and two INTs (101.4 QB rating. He's got a terrific TE in Waller (20 catches) and two quality WRs in Ruggs (21.5 YPC) and Edwards (21.0 YPC). RB Jacobs has been hobbled with an ankle injury (questionable again here) and the running game isn't helping Carr very much (91.2 YPG to rank 24th). The Las Vegas defense has been average but one interesting aspect is that first-year Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last season, so he saw a lot of Justin Herbert on the practice field as well as in games. QB Herbert had a big 'freshman' season in 2020 and is completing 69.8% for 956 yards with six TDs and three INTs (Chargers rank 3rd in passing yards at 307.3 YPG). Like Carr, Herbert has quality 'targets' in WRs Williams (22 catches / 13.4 YPC and 4 TDs) and Allen (21 catches on 12.3 YPC) Note: Allen has 100-plus catches in THREE of the last four seasons, missing with 97 in the other year. RB Ekeler (166 yards on 4.7 YPC), is also a big part of the passing offense with 15 catches. The key matchup here is the LA pass D (201.7 YPG ranks 8th) vs Carr, as this will be the best pass D he has faced in 2021. The Chargers have the talent to challenge for the AFC West title and/or a wild card spot but NEED to start winning home games, as they are just 19-22 SU at home since returning to LA. I think the Raiders are absolutely primed for some regression here and I'm backing LA at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic ('Brady Bowl') is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady is returning to his NFL home of 20 seasons on Sunday night when the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-2 New England Patriots in Foxborough. Brady won six Super Bowl titles with the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick, before capturing his seventh last season in his first season with the Buccaneers. While Brady was adding to his legacy, Belichick's Brady-less Patriots finished 7-9, just the team's second losing record since Belichick went 5-11 in his first season as the franchise's head coach (2000). It's not really original, but I've dubbed this game 'The Brady Bowl!'
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10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 4:25 ET. The Packers opened with a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 1, a contest moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida. The loss was Aaron Rodgers' worst as a pro, as he completed 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with no TDs and two INTs (36.8 QB rating). However, Rodgers and the Packers have rebounded with a 35-17 home win over the Lions and last Sunday night, won 30-28 at San Francisco on a FG as time expired. The Steelers shocked the Bills in Week 1 at Buffalo, outscoring them 17-6 in the fourth-quarter for a 23-16 win. However, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games (BOTH a home!), 26-17 to the Raiders and 24-10 vs the Bengals.
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* NFC West Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. Full, detailed analysis Thursday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -114 | 113 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. The Indianapolis Colts went 11-5 in 2020 with Rivers at QB and 'scared' the Bills in the wild card round, losing 27-24 in Buffalo. However, with Rivers retired, the Colts have opened 0-3, the team's worst start in 10 years!. Indy will be in Miami to take on the Dolphins, who got outplayed by the Pats at New England in Week 1 but somehow managed to win 17-16. The Dolphins then got clobbered at home 35-0 by Buffalo, before losing just 31-28 in Las Vegas last Sunday to the Raiders (overtime FG with 0:00 on the clock!). Both teams are "on the ropes" as they collide in Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday. QB Carson Wentz does not look like Indy's 'answer' at QB, playing on two bum ankles with a struggling offensive line plus he has very little talent at the receiver positions. RB Jonathan Taylor, who finished so strong in the second half of the 2020 season, has 171 yards (4.1 YPC / 0 TDs) after three games. The Indy running game averages 103.0 YPG to rank 19th (OL woes don't help!). The defense is allowing 26.7 PPG (22nd). The Dolphins don't run the ball well either, averaging only 92.7 YPG (23rd) but Myles Gaskin gained 65 yards against the Raiders last Sunday and is averaging 5.1 YPC on the season (he was terrific in college at Washington!). Tua got hurt early in the Buffalo game but as I noted in taking Miami last week vs the Raiders, Jacoby Brissett isn't really a drop-off in production. With a full week to prepare, was 32-49 for a modest 215 yards but didn't throw an INT plus added 37 yards rushing with a TD. Most importantly, he drove the Colts 82 yards in under 3 1/2-minutes to a score and a two-point conversion that sent the game to OT. Also of note last Sunday for Miami was TE Gesicki's 10 catches and rookie WR Waddle's 12 (he has 22 thru three games!). Brissett will surely be motivated against his ex-team and while Miami was no match for Buffalo in Week 2 (Bills were coming off a Week 1 home upset to the Steelers), let's NOT forget that the Dolphins ended last season with ATS wins in their final five home games (4-1 SU, losing only to KC). It's safe to say that the Colts are NOT the Chiefs! Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -108 | 74 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Car/Dal Under at 1:00 ET. This Week 4 matchup between the Panthers and Cowboys features a contest between two FIRST-PLACE teams. The 3-0 Panthers sit atop the NFC South (take that TB 12), while the 2-1 Cowboys lead the NFC 'Least,' as its only winning team. BOTH are a perfect 3-0 ATS. The Carolina Panthers are surely one of the NFL's biggest surprises, while the Cowboys lone loss came at Tampa Bay (on a FG in the closing second). Dallas followed that tough loss with back-to-back wins, receiving kudos after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles. |
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10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Daniel Jones is just looking for a break. He's played well in 2021, completing 65.4% for 782 yards and while he's thrown for just a modest two TD passes, he has not thrown an interception in 104 attempts. With RB Barkley still looking nothing like the player who topped 1,000-yards rushing in his first two years, Jones is also the team's leading rusher with 161 yards (7.0 YPC and two TDs). The bottom line? The 0-3 Giants are still trying to figure out how to win a game. They have lost their last two games on last-second field goals by Washington (30-29) and Atlanta (17-14). The 2-1 Saints have had a rollercoaster start to their first season without Drew Brees in what seems like two decades! The team's home opener against the Packers was moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, but the Saints won 38-3, handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. Brees' replacement, Jameis Winston, threw five TD passes against Green Bay but threw for only 148 yards. The Saints lost 26-7 at Carolina in Week 2, with Winston throwing two INTs and no INTs plus with only 111 passing yards. In last Sunday's 28-13 win at New England, Winston threw two TDs without an interception but again, passed for only 128 yards. RB Kamara has been quiet so far as well but the defense has been excellent. New Orleans is holding opponents to 14.0 PPG (3rd) on 304.0 YPG (6th). Yes, this will be the Saints' first home game but covering a TD or more pointspread will NOT be easy. Who would ever think that Drew Brees' former team ranks 31st in total offense (234.0 YPG) and 1st in passing yards (113.7 YPG). Yes, the Giants have trouble finishing games but I will NOT ignore the fact that the Giants are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 as an away underdog. "Close isn't good enough," Giants coach Joe Judge said, adding that the last-second field goals didn't tell the whole story. However, close is good enough for me, Joe. 'Bow-Wow!' Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-02-21 | Liberty v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 36-12 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on UAB at 7:00 ET. Hugh Freeze was 10-2 in a one-year stint at Arkansas St, which he used as a springboard to get the job at Ole miss. However, his stay ended amid recruiting and academic violations. He resurfaced at Liberty in 2019 and led the Flames to a 8-5 season, including a Cure Bowl win. Then came last year's 10-1 team that capped its season with a second straight Cure Bowl win over an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team. Liberty opened the current season 3-0 and were on the cusp of breaking into the AP top-25 but lost 24-21 at Syracuse last Saturday. The Orange kicked the game-winning 35-yard field goal with no time on the clock, using a late turnover to set up the game-winner.
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10-02-21 | Army v. Ball State +7.5 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Ball State at 5:00 ET. Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights have opened 4-0 here in 2021 but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that their four opponents are a combined 3-13 (.188) SU to open the current season. Ball St has opened 1-3, which is somewhat of a head-scratcher, as the Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. The Cardinals lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It's no surprise that Army comes in averaging 344.5 YPG rushing (No. 2 in the nation, averaging 5.2 YPC with 17 rushing TDs. QB Anderson is the team's leading rusher 431 yards on 7.4 YPC and 5 TDs) with Robinson being the most productive RB (215 yards on 11.3 YPC). Anderson has attempted just 15 passes with three TDs and zero INTs (for only 187 yards). The best thing Army's defense has is that the offense controls the clock by 'eating' yards and time off the clock, while 'coughing up' just one turnover. The Army D checks in allowing 19.0 PPG (38th) on 277.8 YPG (16th). The 'trick' for Ball St will be to move the ball and keep Army from dominating the game with its rushing attack. Easier said than done but I think Ball St is capable of a breakout performance in this one. QB Plitt is completing 61.2% but for only 614 yards in four games (two TDs / three INTs). That compares to him throwing for 2,164 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs in just eight games last season. In 2019, he threw for 2,918 yards with 24 TDs and seven INTs. He's WAAY better than he's looked so far. I noted Army's recent success up top but being favored on the road is not something Army has seen much of. The Black Knights have been a road favorite just SEVEN times in the last five seasons, going 4-3 SU and ATS. Army has next weekend off and then plays three straight important opponents, Wisconsin, Wake Forest (off to a 4-0 start) and Air Force (3-1 start). Upset alert? Just maybe but be sure to take the points, remembering Army's opponents so far are a combined 3-13! Good luck...Larry |
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10-02-21 | Rays v. Yankees -125 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 1:05 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays could view this weekend series as a rehearsal for what they hope is a deep postseason run but the Rays and Yankees have developed a real dislike for each other the last decade and 'making life tough' on New York as it looks to clinch the No. 1 wild card spot, sure is playing on the minds of all associated with the franchise. That was the case last night, as the Rays opened the series by holding on for a 4-3 victory. The 99-61 Rays are 6-2 in the Bronx this season and 11-3 there since the start of last season. The loss dropped the Yankees to 91-69 but they lead the AL wild-card race, ONE game ahead of the 90-70 Boston Red Sox and two in front of the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, who are both 89-71. Full disclosure, I played and lost on the New York Yankees in the opener of this season-ending series with the Tampa Bay Rays last night but while that one came up short, I absolutely expect the home side to bounce back on Saturday. The Yankees have been streaky all year, as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games (counting last night's loss) and that run comes on the heels of them losing 15 of 22. They nearly pulled off a comeback against Tampa Bay's Andrew Kittredge in the ninth inning, but Gary Sanchez and Rougned Odor struck out with two on after Joey Gallo and Brett Gardner hit RBI singles. "We want to clinch, that'd be nice, but we have two more games to do that," Gallo said. "We control our own destiny, but that's up to us." New York's Giancarlo Stanton had two hits, including an RBI single, and he has driven in 14 runs in his past seven games. The starters for Saturday are rookie Shane Baz (2-0, 1.69 ERA) for Tampa Bay and Jordan Montgomery (6-6, 3.49 ERA) for New York. The Pirates selected Baz with the 12th overall pick of the 2017 Major League Baseball draft. He was acquired by Tampa Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates (2018) in the trade that also landed Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows in exchange for Chris Archer (pretty big haul for the Rays, right?). He was promoted to the major leagues until September 20, 2021, to make his debut that same night at Tropicana Field. He started against the Toronto Blue Jays and threw five innings in which he gave up two earned runs on two hits (both were home runs) while striking out five. He followed with 5.2 scoreless innings against Miami in a 3-2 win. Montgomery is 1-0 with a tiny 1.65 ERA over his past three starts and has now given up one earned run or less in 15 of his 29 starts (Yanks are 17-12 in those starts). That includes each of his last three starts vs Tampa Bay, when he's allowed just two ERs over 17.1 innings for a 1.04 ERA (Yanks have won ALL three). Baz has been great in his first two MLB starts (14-1 KW ratio / 0.56 WHIP and .135 BAA) but this is his first road start and it comes in 'The House that Ruth Built." Tough assignment for the young pitcher. Yanks win (note: they are 8-4 in Montgomery's home starts) and clinch a wildcard spot. Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-21 | BYU -7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on BYU at 9:00 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. Jaren Hall beat out Baylor Romney for the starting QB job and had BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson). Hall led the Cougars to a 3-0 start, passing for 561 yards (7 TDs / 2 INTs) plus ran for 166 yards (8.3 YPC). However, Hall took a hit with about a minute remaining in BYU's win over ASU and it was more serious than at first reported. Romney got the start last Saturday vs USF and threw for 305 yards and three TDs. At 4-0, BYU is now ranked 13th in the current AP poll. Utah St opened 3-0 (also 3-0 ATS), starting with three straight wins for the first time since 1978. QB Logan Bonner (959 passing yards / 7 TDs / 5 INTs) helps lead an offense averaging 533.3 YPG (10th), and is aided by a strong running game (213.5 YPG). However, the Aggies' defense is a liability, allowing 463.3 YPG (121st) and 29.8 PPG (101st). Whether it's Hall or Romney at QB, I like BYU and its defense, which is allowing 19.3 PPG. The BYU defense got overlooked last year as well, with Wilson leading an offense that averaged 43.5 PPG (Note: the Cougars' D allowed just 15.3 PPG in 2020). BYU is 16-4 SU vs Utah St since 1994 and when the Aggies 'stepped up in class' last week vs Boise St, the offense managed just THREE points, with Bonner completing only 11 of 25 for 173 yards with two INTs. Yes, Utah St is at home vs BYU (played at Boise St), but the Aggies are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Cougars roll. Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-21 | Indians -116 v. Rangers | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cle Indians at 7:00 ET. Neither the 78-81 Cleveland Indians nor the 59-100 Texas Rangers are headed to the playoffs. However, while the Indians are barely under .500 and own a run-differential of minus-14, the Rangers are 41 games under .500 with the fourth-worst run differential in MLB at minus-186. The Indians will send rookie right-hander Eli Morgan (4-7, 5.27 ERA) to the hill, who has quietly turned the corner with his performance of late. He was 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA in September. The Rangers counter with Spencer Howard (0-4, 7.04 ERA), who hasn't even come close to logging enough innings to even qualify for a win this season in seven starts. The Indians have posted their first non-winning season in NINE years, but Cleveland made five playoff appearances in that span, including losing the World Series to the Cubs in seven games back in 2016. Meanwhile, the Rangers have now missed the postseason for a fifth straight year, going 97 games under .500 in that span. Let's go Guardians. Get used to the new nickname! Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees -118 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. Tampa Bay has secured the AL East Crown for the second straight season, as well as its position as the AL's top-seed throughout the playoffs. The only thing it can do in this final series of the year against the Yankees is to try and play spoiler. 91-68 New York welcomes the Rays to the Bronx with a two-game lead over the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners for the No. 1 wild card spot. The Yankees are 8-1 in their last nine after losing 15 of 22 and capped a 5-1 road trip with a 6-2 win at Toronto on Thursday. I'm NOT saying this ranks with the Red Sox/Yankees but these two teams have developed quite a rivalry in a relatively short time. The visitors hand the ball to Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.44 ERA), who is 7-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star Break and leads Tampa Bay's traditional starters in wins. The home side counters with Nestor Cortes (2-2, 2.85), who will make his 14th start of 2021 and is 2-2 with a 3.01 ERA as a starting pitcher this year.McClanahan is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA (seven earned runs in 9.1 innings) in two career starts against the Yankees, including his lone start at Yankee Stadium on June 2, when he allowed a career-high-tying four runs in 3.1 innings. Cortes started against the Rays in Tampa Bay back on July 28, when he allowed one run on three hits in five innings of New York's 3-1 victory. He does not have a decision and owns a 4.41 ERA in six career appearances (one start) against the Rays. Sure, the Rays would love to play the role of spoiler against the Yankees but the Rays could just as easily decide to rest some starters in preparation for a deep playoff run. I'm laying the very reasonable price here with a surging Yankees team! Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-21 | Brewers +110 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 7:45 ET.
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09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -109 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET. The Rockies and Nationals have long ago been eliminated from postseason consideration and will play the "rubber match" of their three-game series this afternoon at Coors Field. The Rockies broke a five-game slide with last night's 3-1 victory, moving to 47-33 at home (Note: Rockies' home moneyline record of +$1,629 is the best in MLB!). NOTHING about the Nats' 2021 season can be described by the word best. Washington is 65-93 overall, including 30-50 on the road. The visitors hand the ball to Paolo Espino, who is 5-5 with a 4.01 ERA. He entered this season with just 30 innings of work in his MLB career, posting a 5.10 ERA. He's made 34 appearances in 2021, including 18 starts but while his home ERA is a respectable 3.36, his road ERA is an 'ugly' 5.23. Welcome to Coors Field, Paolo. The home side counters with Peter Lambert (0-0, 4.91 ERA). Lambert was promoted to the major leagues by Colorado on June 6, 2019. He made his debut that same day at Wrigley Field vs the Chicago Cubs, giving up one run over seven innings while striking out nine, leading the Rockies to a 3-1 win. In 19 starts for Colorado, Lambert finished with a 3-7 record. In late July 2020, Lambert underwent Tommy John surgery and would miss the 2020 season. Lambert gave up two runs over four innings against the hard-hitting Giants on Friday. It was his first big league start since Tommy John surgery. "I felt good," Lambert said. "I wasn't exactly as sharp as I would've liked to have been. A few badly located fastballs in fastball counts, and they took advantage." I expect Lambert to go deeper in today's start and see no reason to expect that Espino's 5.23 road ERA will improve here in his first-ever start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. It's my read that there is GREAT value on Colorado, which is playing its final game of 2021 in front of its fans. Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-21 | Phillies +116 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 the NL East is on the Phi Phillies at 7:20 ET. We hear a lot lately about Seattle's push to end MLB's longest playoff drought (19 years since 2001) but the second-longest active playoff drought belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies, who own a NINE-year drought. The current NL East standings look like this. The Braves, winners of the division in each of the last three seasons, are 83-72 and the Phillies are 81-75, 2 1/2-games back. Philadelphia's best (only?) shot of closing in on the Braves will be in this three-game series.
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09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET. There is "no rest for the weary" in this last week of the regular season. The Yankees swept the hated-Red Sox at Fenway Friday thru Sunday, as 89-67 New York took over the No. 1 wild card spot, one game ahead of the 88-68 Red Sox. However, after taking Monday off, the Yankees visit Toronto for the opener of a three-game series tonight. The 87-69 Blue jays are just TWO games behind the Yankees and ONE game behind the Red Sox. The Yankees lost seven straight from Sep 4-10, went 5-4 over their next nine games but now enter on a six-game winning streak. As for the Jays, they are 20-8 since Aug 28, including winning all FOUR at Yankee Stadium from Sep 6-9. The Yankees will start Jameson Taillon (8-6, 4.41 ERA) tonight, who has been on the injured list since Sep 7 (right ankle tendon). He took the loss Sep. 6 against Toronto after allowing three runs and four hits in seven innings. It was his second straight loss after going undefeated in a career-high 15 straight starts from June 5-Aug 26 (he was 7-0 and the team 11-4). The Blue Jays will go with Hyun Jin Ryu (13-9, 4.34 ERA), who has been on the IL since Sept. 18 (tight neck). Ryu is just 2-4 with a 8.10 ERA in his last eight starts (Jays are 4-4). Ryu was not in great form prior to going on the IL but he is 2-0, 1.88 ERA, in four starts this season against the Yankees (Jays are 3-1). Getting Ryu from the Dodgers prior to the 2020 season was a great move. He's their 'go-to' guy and I expect him to come up big here, catching the Yankees off that three-game sweep at Fenway. Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 8:15 ET. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win over Atlanta in Week 1 and then lost a 17-11 home game to the 49ers. As for the Cowboys, they lost 31-29 on a FG with two seconds left at Tampa Bay in 2021's first game and then beat the Chargers 20-17 in LA on a 56-yard FG on that game's final play. The two longtime rivals meet tonight in Dallas and with both at 1-1, the winner will take over 1st-place in the NFC 'Least,' as Washington has opened 1-2 and the NY Giants 0-3.
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09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET. The Packers were embarrassed 38-3 in Week 1 vs New Orleans (played in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida). Aaron Rodgers threw for just 133 yards with two INTs and zero TDs (QB rating of 36.8!) in what was the worst loss of his career. No one should have been surprised that Rodgers bounced back this past Monday Night, especially against the Lions. The Packers pulled away for a 35-17 win (won send-half 21-0) with Rodgers completing 22 of 27 for 255 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 145.8). The Packers travel to San Francisco Sunday night for a game vs the 2-0 49ers, who have opened with road wins of 41-33 at Detroit and 17-11 at Philadelphia. Jimmy G threw for 314 vs the Lions but only 189 vs the Eagles. The good news is that he has not thrown an INT in 55 attempts. RB Mitchell ran for 104 yards (5.5 YPC) against Detroit but then only 42 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) vs Philly. San Francisco is averaging just 69.5 YPG on the ground (23.0 YPC) but expect Aaron Jones to "get going" and solve that 'problem. Jones is off back-to-back 1,000 rushing season (25 TDs) plus has caught 96 passes for five more TDs. Jones caught three short TD passes from Rodgers Monday night and added a fourth on the ground. Don't worry about the Green Bay running game. Turning to San Francisco's running game, "Houston (San Francisco), we have a problem!" After losing starter Raheem Mostert to a season-ending knee injury during its opener at Detroit, San Francisco then saw JaMycal Hasty go down with a high ankle sprain in last week's 17-11 win at Philadelphia. Hasty is likely to wind up on short-term injured reserve, which would require him to miss at least three weeks. What's more, rookies Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (head) were also dinged up last week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Mitchell is day-to-day, while Sermon is in concussion protocol but could play Sunday. The 49ers have opened 2-0 but this game with Green Bay opens a brutal three-game stretch in which San Francisco hosts Seattle and then plays at Arizona. Who do you want at QB, Rodgers or Jimmy G? Green Bay is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while San Francisco is a bank account draining 10-25-1 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite. San Francisco returns home for the first time this year and I think, 'lays an egg!' Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Mont is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:08 ET. The Yankees won 8-3 Friday night at Fenway but trailed 2-1 in the eighth inning of Saturday's contest before Giancarlo Stanton crushed a grand slam over the Green Monster, giving the Yanks a 5-3 win and moving them into a tie with the Red Sox at the top of the AL's wild card standings at 88-67. The No. 1 team gets to host the No. 2 team in a one-game, winner-take-all playoff for the chance to move on to the AL Division Series, where the Tampa Bay Rays will be waiting. Cleary, tonight's result is HUGE but not just for the Yanks and Red Sox, but also for Toronto (two games back) and Seattle (three games back). Handicapping the race, the Red Sox have a MUCH easier road in the season's last week, as they embark on a six-game road trip against cellar dwellers in the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals. Meanwhile, the Yankees will visit the Blue Jays after Sunday's series finale before ending their season hosting the first-place Tampa Bay Rays. The Yanks probably need the game more but the LAST thing that Boston wants is to get swept at home against New York this slate in the season. Jordan Montgomery (6-6, 3.55 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees, while Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 4.97 ERA) gets the call for the Red Sox. Montgomery gave up one run and struck out six over six innings in a 7-1 victory over the lowly Rangers on Tuesday. However, it was just his SECOND win since July 27th. Over his last EIGHT starts, he's posted a 2.93 ERA but the Yanks are just 4-4 in those games. Rodriguez was a big MONEY-MAKER for the Red Sox in 2018 and 2019 (team was 45-12, +$1,712 in his starts) but he sat out in 2020. He's back to 'making money' for backers here in 2021, going 18-11, +$540. E-Rod is EXACTLY the starting pitcher the Red Sox want on the mound tonight in trying to salvage the series finale. He is 8-6 with a 3.73 ERA in 22 games (20 starts) lifetime against New York, including going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts versus the Yankees this year. Meanwhile, Montgomery is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox this season and 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA in 10 starts (Yanks are 4-6) for his career. Boston avoids the home sweep and sets its sights on clinching the No. 1 wild card sp0t at Baltimore and Washington! Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 56 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Sea/Min Under at 4:25 ET. 1-1 Seattle pulled away for a 28-16 win at Indianapolis in Week 1 but then blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead at home last Sunday in a 33-30 OT loss to Tennessee. Minnesota is 0-2 but is just two plays away from being 2-0. The Vikings lost 27-24 in OT at Cincy in Week 1 and at Arizona last Sunday, missed a 37-yard FG on the game's final play. The Vikings are at home for the first time in 2021 this Sunday against Seattle. QBs Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are both off to great starts with Wilson completing 74.1% for 597 yards with six TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 146.9 is No. 1). Cousins is completing 71.6% for 595 yards with five TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 112.9. The duo has combined to attempt 135 passes through the season's first two weeks and neither has thrown a SINGLE interception. Considering Seattle's defense ranks 30th in allowing 434.0 YPG and Minnesota is allowing 420.0 YPG (28th), maybe this is a 'dead-nuts' Over! Then again, maybe the Over is not such an easy call. The Seahawks have won SIX straight regular-season games against the Vikings, including a 27-26 victory last year in Seattle on a 6-yard TD pass from Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf with six seconds remaining. In fact, I think we'll witness another tight battle here as well, but I also expect a lower final combined score. The Vikings have played two consecutive games decided by a FG attempt on the game's final play, with the Vikings coming out on the 'wrong' side of the make and miss. An 0-3 start all but ends any playoff hopes Minnesota brought into the season and Seattle sure wants/needs to move to 2-1, as the other three teams in the NFC West have all opened 2-0. Seattle is at the 49ers next week and the is home to the Rams the following week. Expect a competitive game and a final score that stays Under the total. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-21 | Mariners +133 v. Angels | Top | 5-1 | Win | 133 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Mariners at 4:07 ET. The 86-59 Seattle Mariners are three games behind the AL's second wild card spot and with just SEVEN games left to their season, will need a STRONG finish (and get some help) to reach the postseason for first since 2001. As for the Angels, despite owning two of MLB's marquee stars (Trout and Ohtani), they will sit out the postseason for the SEVENTH straight year and for the 11th time in the last 12! Seattle can only take it "one game at a time" and Sunday, the Mariners send Marco Gonzales (9-5, 4.14 ERA) to the mound to oppose the aforementioned Shohei Ohtani (9-2, 3.28 ERA). Seattle's Chris Flexen owns MLB's best moneyline mark (+$1,458) but Gonzales could be the team's hottest starter. His last loss came back on July 3, with him going 8-0 over his last 13 stars (team is 10-3). In that span, got a 2.95 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP spanning 79.1 innings (he's posted a quality start in EIGHT of his last 10 trips to the mound). There was talk the Angels were going shut down Ohtani for the last two weeks of the season, after he allowed nine hits and six ERs over 3.1 innings at Houston on Sep 10. However, he was back on the mound Sep 19, pitching eight innings and allowing just two ERs with 10 Ks. Ohtani is a MAJOR talent at bat and on the mound but his 9-2 W/L mark is somewhat deceiving, as the Angels are a more modest 13-9, +$57 in his 22 starts Getting back to Gonzales, he's 8-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 16 career starts vs the Angels (team is 12-4). Then there is Seattle's +$3,419 moneyline record, which trails only the 101-win Giants' by $27! Note, the Giants are 16 games BETTER than Seattle in the standings. Compare that to LA's -$517 moneyline mark and we see an almost $4,000 difference. GREAT value with Gonzales and Seattle! Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 4:05 ET. The RAY-DAHs are 2-0 SU & ATS, while the FISH are 1-1 SU/ATS. Las Vegas won Week 1's MNF game 33-27 over Baltimore in an OT thriller and then posted an impressive 26-17 road win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Miami was outplayed at New England in Week 1 but came away with a 17-16 win but then returned home to host the Bills and got humbled in a 35-0 loss.
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09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -118 | 105 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. Non-conference matchups are always interesting and this particular one in New England on Sunday definitely is. The Saints looked brilliant in their 38-3 win in Week 1 over the Packers in Jacksonville (moved because of the hurricane) but fell flat in their 26-7 Week 2 loss at Carolina. Welcome to Jameis Winston's 'world.' The 2013 Heisman winner completed 14 of 20 for a modest 148 yards vs Green Bay but threw five TD passes (QB rating was 130.8!). However, last Sunday in Carolina, Winston completed 11 of 21 for a puny 111 yards without a TD pass and two INTs (QB rating of 26.9!). The Tampa Bay ground game isn't much (109.5 YPG to rank 17th) plus the defense that was so brilliant against Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 (handed Rodgers his worst loss as a pro), showed NONE of that form against the legendary Sam Darnold, who led Carolina to 28 FDs and threw for 305 yards with two TDs.
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09-26-21 | Falcons v. Giants -2.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -120 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* 'Losers Night Out' play is on the NYG at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Giants have both opened 0-2 and likely both believe this is a "game they can win!" The Falcons have lost 32-6 at home to the Eagles and then 48-25 at Tampa Bay. It doesn't take a degree from MIT to figure out that the Falcons are allowing 40.0 PPG, which is the most of any team. The Giants opened with a 27-13 home loss to the Broncos and then lost in Week 2's Thursday night game at Washington, 30-29. I'm sure ALL remember that the Giants offsides penalty at the end, gave Washington a second attempt at the game-winning FG and you know the rest. "Matty Ice" began 2021 having passed for 4,000-plus yards the previous 10 seasons but with WR Julio Jones now longer around and a running game that averages 89.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC, it figures to be a L-O-N-G season. Ryan is completing 69.1% but he's thrown just two TD passes and a QB rating of 76.4 (offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG, ranking 30th of 32 teams). One week after getting clobbered at home by the Eagles, the Falcons got smashed last weekend in Tampa, giving up 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Giants QB Daniel Jones is a 'tough cookie.' He's completing 63.8% for 516 yards with two TDs and not a single INT in 70 attempts. He's run for 122 yards (8.1 YPC) and two TDs. Like Ryan, his running game hardly gives him any cover, as Barkley (36 attempts for 83 yards after two games, despite a 41-yard scamper vs Washington) seems to have gotten 'old' VERY quickly. Jones completed 22 of 32 for 249 yards with a TD pass, while also rushing for a career-high 95 yards against Washington and has scored a rushing TD in each of his first two games. Jones DESERVED to get a "W." Expect that "W' to come right here! OK, I realize that the Giants have lost more games than any team during the last FIVE years but the Falcons are a 'bottom-five' NFL team. Atlanta was 4-12 last season and now 0-2 to begin 2021. Let me also bring out the fact that the Falcons lost all three of their preseason games by a combined 49 points, despite trying to win! Did Atlanta really lead New England 28-3 in Super Bowl 51? The Falcons are the perfect opponent to get untracked against. It's time to open up the playbook in New York this weekend and get that 'W!" Here's a supporting trend. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs clubs with losing records. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Air Force -4 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 82 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Air Force at 8:00 ET. FAU lost 35-14 at Florida to open the season ('backdoor' cover) but has rebounded with two wins, 38-6 over Ga Southern and 45-14 over Fordham. The Owls are back on the road this Saturday at Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. The Falcons rolled to back-to-back victories at home against Lafayette (35-14) and 23-3 at Navy to open the season. However, Air Force is in bounce-back mode here after falling 49-45 to Utah State last weekend when RB Calvin Tyler Jr. raced 61 yards for the go-ahead TD with just under four minutes to play to lift Utah State to the win over in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams. FAU head coach Willie Taggert is in his second season with FAU and his career has mirrored a ping pong game. He starred at Western KY as a QB and began his coaching career at Western Ky in 2010. He's since made stops at USF (four years), Oregon (one year) and two years at FSU. The good news is he has a good QB in N’Kosi Perry has 871 passing yards with 7 TDs and zero INTs. He's a Miami-Fl transfer and seems to like being a BIG 'fish' in 'small' pound. However, the running game averages about 150 YPG less than that of Air Force. It's no surprise that Air Force averages 327.7 YPG (4th-best in the nation) on 5.2 YPC. QB Daniels showed some passing ability in the loss to Utah St (6 of 12 for 182 yards and one TD) plus is part of variety of players who contribute to the running game. Three players topped 100 yards rushing last Saturday (including Daniels) and on the season, WR Davis has run for 146 yards (10.7 YPC) with three rushing TDs. In stark contrast to Taggert, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. Tough spot for FAU traveling cross-country to play in altitude, facing a strong home team coming off a late-game loss last Saturday. Air Force comes in 22-8 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Lay the points and EXPECT a decisive Air Force victory! Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Indiana -9 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Indiana at 8:00 ET. Indiana head coach Tom Allen has made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2010 and 2018, he's led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana opened the season ranked 17th (the school's first top-25 preseason appearance since 1968), However, Indiana hasn't gotten off to the start it wanted in 2021. That said, Indiana's two losses have come against No. 5 Iowa (34-6) and No. 8 Cincinnati (38-24). In between, the Hoosiers hammered Idaho 56-14.
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09-25-21 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET. Kansas St and Oklahoma St meet Saturday in Stillwater in the Big 12 opener for each school. Both a 3-0 with the Wildcats looking a little bit better than the Cowboys so far. Kansas State is off a 38-17 home win over Nevada last Saturday, after opening with a neutral site win over Stanford (24-7) and an unimpressive home win over Southern Illinois (31-23). Neither of Kansas St's two QBs, Skyar Thompson or Will Howard have looked overly impressive, However, RB Vaughn has run for 371 yards on 8.0 YPC with five TDs (he rushed for a career-best 218 yards in last Saturday). Oklahoma AB Spencer Sanders is well thought of but so far has underachieved. He missed the season opener and in two games back has been nothing special He was just 6 of 13 for 82 yards at Boise St but he has run for 102 yards in his two games, scoring a rushing TD at Boise. Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has led Okie St to 15 straight bowl appearances since then (10-5). His 2011 team was 12-1 (No. 3 finish in the AP poll) and he's produce five other season of 10-plus wins. Chris Klieman had the unenviable task of taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder and after an 8-5 first season, was 4-6 in 2020. This will be K-Sate's first true road game and Kieman has yet to beat the Cowboys, falling 26-13 in 2019 and 20-18 in Manhattan last year. Kansas St has home games vs Oklahoma (No. 4) and Iowa St (No. 14) up next. Could the visitors get caught looking ahead? Oklahoma St is 3-0 but hasn't yet but together an "A effort," as the Cowboys have won their first three games by a total of just 13 points. However, I see one coming. Going back to OSU's 'magical' season of 2011 (see above), the Cowboys are 50-15 SU at Boone Pickens Stadium and they are currently on a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 against teams with winning records, Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers -122 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Det Tigers at 6:10 ET. Two teams that won't be in the playoffs collide on Saturday, when the Royals play the Tigers on Saturday. The KC Royals have faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 70-83, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. KC won the series opener 3-1 last night, dropping the Tigers to 74-79. That said, Detroit fans have to be happy that the Tigers are MUCH more respectable this season, after losing 98, 98 and 114 games from 2017 thru 2019, then going 23-35 (.397) in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The team's .487 win percentage is a big improvement plus the team's moneyline mark of plus-$2,435 is the THIRD-best in MLB! The Royals will hand the ball to Jon Heasley (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who gave up four runs off six hits (including two HRs) over four innings in his big league debut against the Mariners a week ago Friday (9/17). He was a late replacement for Brady Singer When Heasley delivered his first pitch, he became the FIFTH Royals pitcher selected in the 2018 draft to pitch for the big league club. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2021 Royals are the first team in MLB history to have five pitchers from the same draft class start a game in one season. The Tigers will counter with Tarik Skubal (8-12, 4.25 ERA) who has posted 162 strikeouts over 142 innings this year. His record belies how well he's pitched since Aug 1. He's made eight starts and while he's 2-2 and the team just 4-4, here is a 'deeper' look. He allowed six ERs in an 8/31 start vs the A's but in his other seven starts since Aug 1, he's allowed two ERs or less in EACH one (2.27 ERA!). The Royals have won all four of their meetings with the Tigers since the All-Star break but I'll back Skubal (owns a 3.72 home ERA), as the Tigers stop their recent slide against the Royals. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Astros v. A's +111 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 111 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. Oakland broke a FOUR-game slide with a big 14-2 win in yesterday's series opener against the Astros. It was a much-needed win, after Oakland lost all four games (at home!) to Seattle to open the week. The A's won the AL West last season but have fallen EIGHT games behind the division-leading Astros, who own a seemingly safe six-game lead over the Mariners with just nine days left in the regular season. Oakland's only hope of playing baseball after Oct 3 is to somehow earn a wild card spot. However, that too seems unlikely, as the A's are FIVE back of the Red Sox (No. 1) and FOUR back of the NY Yankees (No. 2). Houston was just 29-31 last season (yet made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS before losing) and would surely like to clinch the AL's No. 2 seed, so the Astros could host the White Sox.The visiting side hands the ball to Framber Valdez (11-5, 3.07 ERA), who is off a good start over the Angels, going seven scoreless and striking out six. Previous to that, Valdez had posted two straight starts in which he surrendered four ERs in each outing. The Astros are 13-7 in his 20 starts in 2021 but in his lone start vs the A's, he allowed six runs (five earned) on 10 hits ERs over five innings! Oakland goes with Sean Manaea (10-10, 4.05 ERA), who is coming off an outing to forget against the Mariners on Monday (allowed four runs over three innings). The A's think highly of this lefty, who won 12 games in both 2017 and 2018. In September of 2018 he was ruled out for the season and for the 2019 season as well, due to shoulder surgery. Manaea did spend the majority of the 2019 season rehabbing his shoulder but made his season debut on September 5 and was 4-0 with 1.21 ERA over five starts (team was 4-1). Manaea does not have a good lifetime record vs Houston but does own a highly respectable 3.60 ERA inn 17 lifetime starts against the hard-hitting Astros Did Oakland 'shoot its wad' with 14 runs in Friday's win? Not according to this stat. Oakland is a near-perfect 7-1 in its last eight after a 10 runs or greater victory in its previous outing! Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State -6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa St at 3:30 ET. Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years in 2020 and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, defeating Oregon 34-17 (BTW...It was CFB Game of the Year!). Iowa St finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Iowa St was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll but was 'lucky to escape 16-10 over Northern Iowa in its opener and then lost its Cy-Hawk showdown vs Iowa (27-7), before routing a non-competitive UNLV team 48-3. Matt Rhule led Baylor to an 11-3 season in 2019 but then left for the NFL (Carolina Panthers). Getting his first-ever head coaching job was Dave Aranda, known as a defensive specialist. However, his first season went poorly in 2020's "Season of COVID," as the Bears would go just 2-7 (3-6). However, while 2-1 Iowa St is the ranked team in this matchup (14th), Baylor is the 3-0 team. Then again, the Bears' wins have come over Texas St, Texas Southern and 45-7 over Kansas, which is now a hard-to-believe 5-85 over its last 90 Big 12 games. Iowa St's two best offensive players are both off to slow starts. QB Brock Purdy (46-18 TD.INT ratio the last two seasons) may be completing 71.4% but he's thrown for a modest 625 yards with three TDs and three INTs. RB Breece Hall, who led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards, while scoring 21 TDs, has run for just 238 yards (4.0 YPC) and four scores. However, the Iowa St defense has been terrific, allowing just 194.0 YPG (No. 1) and 13.3 PPG (14th) The Baylor defense is allowing 235.0 YPG (8th) and 11.3 PPG (10th) but as noted above, the competition lacks any quality opponents. The offense is averaging 46.7 PPG (5th) on 559.3 YPG (3rd) but again, consider the competition. QB Boharian has thrown for 664 yards with five TDs and zero INTs in 70 attempts. The Bears feature a strong running game (322.3 YPG ranks 5th) with Smith gaining 366 yards (7.8 YPC) and Ebner (317 yards (7.5 YPC). Baylor dominated this series going 7-2 from 2005-2016 but Iowa St has won THREE of the last four. Some may feel that Iowa St should NOT be this big of a favorite on the road but I disagree. This is Baylor's first real test of 2021 and I say its final grade by game's end will be an "F!" Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Mississippi State at 12:00 ET). LSU opened the season ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, despite coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-5 season in 2020. That came on the heels of LSU's magical 2019 season win in which the Tigers went 15-0 and won the national championship. The Tigers lost 38-27 at UCLA in their first game but LSU has bounced back with home wins of 34-7 over McNeese St and 49-21 over Central Michigan.
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09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry O/U Game of the Year is on the NYY/Bos Under at 7:10 ET. MLB's greatest rivalry adds to its legacy this weekend as the NY Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Part for a three-game series starting tonight. Here's the set-up. Only two games separate these teams in the wildcard race, as Boston is 88-65 and New York 86-67. However, Toronto lurks just ONE game back and Seattle, which last made the postseason in 2001), sits only two games back. And the Yankees have won three straight (7 of 10) but Boston has won SEVEN in a row (8 of 10). The Yankees hand the ball to ace Gerrit Cole (15-8, 3.03), who is coming off one of the worst outings this season, allowing seven runs off 10 hits over six innings. Meanwhile, Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.58 ERA) who enters off an unfortunate no-decision to the Orioles on Sunday, striking out eight and allowing three runs off seven hits over five innings. Cole has worked 169.1 innings and comes down the stretch of the regular season with an elite 231/38 KW ratio and note that he's been at his best on the road this season, going 9-4 with a 2.96 ERA. Eovaldi was 9-5 at the All Star break but has earned just ONE win over his last 12 starts. However, he's posted a 2.27 ERA and 48/6 KW ratio over his last six starts plus owns a 2.99 ERA at Fenway, compared to a 4.62 ERA on the road. Tonight is a pivotal opener of this three-game series and it's my opinion that these two hurlers will garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. These teams have played under the total in SIX of their last seven meetings and everything points to that trend continuing here. This number is high and the play is on the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
My Friday Night Lights Play is a 9* on Middle Tenn St at 6:30 ET.
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09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -116 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Month is on the Mil Brewers at 2:10 ET. The Brewers have lost the first THREE of this four-game home series against the red-hot Cardinals. St Louis has won 11 straight and now has the inside track on the No. 2 wild card, as the Cards' 10-2 win Wednesday gives the team a 4 1/2-game lead on the Reds and Phillies. St Louis has not clinched the No. 2 spot yet and veteran Adam Wainwright (16-7, 2.89 ERA) will take the mound looking to help the Cardinals complete a four-game sweep at Miller Park. Wainwright is arguably the hottest pitcher in MLB since the All-Star game. The Cards are 11-1 (he has a 1.81 ERA) over his last 12 starts. As for Milwaukee, despite losing Mon-Wed, the Brewers still lead the Cards by 8 1/2-games in the NL Central and only have 10 games remaining. They're going to clinch the division shortly and they'll be at home vs the East winner in the NLDS. OK, all 'cards' on the table (pardon the pun!). I've played against Wainwright in each of his last two starts and while I've come up short each time, I believe the third time's a charm. I'm looking for Adrian Houser (9-6, 3.43 ERA) to be up to the task of besting Wainwright. Houser's success this season has been overlooked because of Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff. Here's the 'dope.' The Brewers are 17-7 in Houser's 24 starts in 2021, giving MLB's 10th-best moneyline mark (+$792) among all starters. Think Wainwright is on a roll? How about this? The Brewers are 12-1 in Houser's last 13 starts. He owns a 1.89 ERA in his three September starts (28 Ks in 19 IP) and owns a 2.93 home ERA on the season. Yes, the Brewers will soon clinch the NL Central but they sure DON'T want to get swept at home by the Cards at this time of year. Enough is ENOUGH! No four-game sweep for St Louis today. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-21 | Giants v. Padres +102 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET. The Giants continue to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers, as they currently own a ONE-game lead in the 'battle' for the NL West crown and MLB's best overall record. Meanwhile, the Padres, who were expected to be the NL West team that would 'push' the Dodgers in 2021, have lost EIGHT of their last 10 (including four in a row) after last night's 6-5 loss to the Giants. The 76-74 Padres are now on the brink of elimination in the NL wild-card race, having fallen FIVE games back with just 12 to play.
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09-22-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -115 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Division Dominator (NL Central) is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET. The St Louis Cardinals battled through serious COVID issues in 2020 to make the postseason for the SEVENTH time in the last 10 years. The 2021 Cards have surged to 12 wins in their last 13, including 10 in a row after beating the Brewers 2-1 last night in Milwaukee. The 81-69 Cards are now FOUR games ahead in the race for the NL's No. 2 wild card spot. The Brewers managed to make the expanded playoff field in 2020, despite a 29-31 record. However, the Brewers are currently 91-60, 9 1/2-games up in the NL Central over the Cards (it's the second-largest division lead in MLB).
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09-21-21 | Mariners v. A's -120 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* AL Wild Card Showdown is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET. Seattle earned a crucial 4-2 win here yesterday, ending Oakland's five-game winning streak. The two wild card contenders are back at it again tonight, playing the second contest of which will be a FOUR-game series. Boston is the AL's No. 1 wild card team, with Toronto 1 1/2-games back of the Red Sox. The Yankees trail the Jays by just a half-game and then comes Oakland (two back) and Seattle (three back). Clearly, this is a crucial series. The Mariners hand the ball to the red-hot Marco Gonzales (8-5, 4.05 ERA), who is off a no-decision against Boston last Wednesday, conceding three runs off three hits over six innings. Gonzales started off the season in terrible form, but post July 4th, he's made 11 starts and gone 7-0 with a 2.70 ERA (team is 8-3). Since the beginning of August, he's posted a 2.37 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and 39/10 KW ration over 57 innings. Regression at some point will be imminent for the clearly overachieving Gonzales and his home ERA (3.60) is better than on the road ERA (4.61). The A's counter with Paul Blackburn (1-2, 4.94 ERA). Blackburn's in his fifth season and has made just 27 appearances (24 starts) with a 6-9 record (4.94 ERA) in his career. Blackburn is off a 7-2 win last Thursday at KC (allowed two ERs in five innings), giving him his first victory since June 29, 2018. Sure the starting pitcher 'nod' goes to Seattle but as noted above, Gonzales is overdue for a "clunker." Oakland is just ONE game ahead of Seattle in the wild card race, so this now becomes a crucial bounce-back spot for the home side. Manaea gave up four runs on eight hits in five innings in yesterday's loss and it marked the first time in three games A's starting pitchers had allowed a run. In fact, Oakland starters had been 6-1 over the previous 12 outings! Oakland's been to the postseason in each of the last three years, while Seattle's last playoff appearance was back in 2001 (19-year drought!). I'm backing the A's. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* O/U of the Week is on Min/Chi Under at 7:40 ET. Neither club will be in the postseason in 2021, after BOTH won their respective divisions in 2020. The Twins won the AL Central and the Cubs the NL Central. However, the Twins check in at 65-85 and the Cubs at 67-83. what a difference a year makes. Each team enters having lost SEVEN of its last 10. Neither starting pitcher instills a ton of confidence, but I still think this O/U line is high. The visitors hand the ball to Griffin Jax (3-4, 6.65 ERA), who gave up five runs (three earned) over five innings in a loss to the Indians on Wednesday. Chicago turns to Alec Mills (6-6, 4.50), who gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Phillies on Wednesday. Chicago has been involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late, which makes it worth noting that the Cubs have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 after playing five or more straight overs in a row. That's the case here, as Chicago has indeed played to five overs in a row and in seven of its last 10). The Twins rank 16th in scoring and the Cubs are 19th. When it's all said and done, I look for this one to sneak under the total. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-21 | Blue Jays +102 v. Rays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET. The Rays are chasing their second straight AL East title and have just about clinched things, as Tampa Bay is 93-58. The Rays own a seven-game lead over the second-place Red Sox, with just 11 games left to play. In contrast, the Blue Jays are simply chasing a wildcard spot. Boston owns the No. 1 wild card spot, with Toronto 1 1/2-games back. However, the Jays are just a half-game better than the Yankees plus Oak (2-back) and Seattle (3-back) may still have something to say about which team plays past Oct 3. Alek Manoah (6-2, 3.39 ERA) starts for Toronto and he's been very consistent all season long. He's made 17 starts and the Jays have gone 13-4, giving him a +$615 moneyline mark. Over 93 innings of work, Manoah owns an elite 102/31 KW ratio .He enters on top form , most recently going eight scoreless and striking out 10 without walking a batter in a victory over Tampa last Monday. He may be just 1-0 in his last five starts but the Jays are 5-0! Drew Rasmussen (3-0, 2,57 ERA) gets the call here for Tampa, and he's off five scoreless over Toronto last Tuesday. The rookie has made 18 appearances but just eight starts. However, he's been sharp so far in his spot starts and has become a regular lately, making six starts in a row. He owns a 1.567 in that span (team is 5-1) but he's never pitched more than five innings Holding back Toronto's big bats in back-to-back starts is a tall order, even for the elite in this league. I had a play on Toronto last night and while that one came up short, I believe the Jays have what it takes to bounce back on the road in this important contest. After all, the Rays are just 9-10 in September, while Toronto's playoff 'push' has seen them go 18-5 since August 28. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas are certainly trying to lead us to believe that these teams are very evenly matched tonight and in the end, I'm betting on Manoah over Rasmussen. Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-21 | Blue Jays -122 v. Rays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET. I appreciate the Tampa Bay Rays. How can you not if you're a fan of baseball? Great pitching. Great starting pitching and a strong bullpen. The Rays are the masters of playing "small ball." The Rays were AL champs last season and they've defied the odds again this year despite a rash of injuries and are on the verge of securing the top spot in the AL again in 2021. Tampa is 92-58 and 6 1/2-games up in the AL East, The Rays welcome the 85-64 Toronto Blue Jays to Tropicana Field for a three-game series that begins tonight. While the Rays are almost assured a spot in the postseason, the Jays are still not. This game (and series!) "means more" to Toronto. Robbie Ray (12-5, 2.64) is coming off his 12th win of the year on Wednesday, allowing one run and striking out 13 over seven innings over these very Rays (he's made seven career starts vs Tampa Bay, posting a 2.45 ERA). Ray is on pace to have his best season since he went 15-5 (2.89 ERA) in 2017 with Arizona. As for Tampa Bay, it is countering by calling up No. 20 overall prospect Shane Baz to make his Major League debut Monday. Baz becomes the sixth current or 2021 preseason Top-100 prospect to play for the Rays this season alongside Wander Franco, Vidal Bruján, Shane McClanahan, Luis Patiño and Josh Lowe. This 22-year-old has earned his promotion to "The Show." posting a 2.06 ERA with 113 strikeouts and 13 walks in 78.2 innings between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham. He was even better at the higher level with a 1.76 ERA with 64 Ks in 10 starts (46 innings) after joining the Bulls on June 15. Despite how well Shane Baz has performed in the minors, this is still a MAJOR mismatch on the mound between starting pitchers. As noted above, Ray owns a 2.45 ERA in seven career starts vs Tampa Bay but let me add that FIVE of those starts have come in 2021 and he's posted a 1.85 ERA. One could argue that this game and series are Toronto's most important of the entire season, Considering that the Blue Jays are 15-3 in September, while the Rays are just 8-10, it's the 'PERFECT' setup for a Toronto win. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 127 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic 'Best Bet' is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. Kansas City hosted the Browns in Week 1 (a rematch of a postseason matchup last year) and trailed from the opening kick-off until Mahomes led two fourth-quarter TD drives to give KC a 33-29 non-covering win. The Ravens opened Monday night in Las Vegas, where they lost a 33-27 OT thriller to the Raiders. Mahomes passed for 337 yards with three TD passes and no INTs and he's now a PERFECT 11-0 in September games with 35 passing TDs and zero interceptions (unreal!). However, the KC defense wasn't able to slow the Cleveland offense, as Mayfield passed for 321 yards plus allowed the Browns to run for 153 yards (5.9 YPC). The Ravens' RB corps has been decimated by injury but led by Lamar Jackson's 86 yards (7.2 YPC), Baltimore ran for 189 yards (5.6 YPC). Jackson completed 19 of 30 for 235 yards with one TD and no INTs. The Chiefs are the most talked about and analyzed team in the NFL. Even more so than the Bucs. Even the most casual NFL can tell you the strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters for Kansas City. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 34-20 on this field last season and deserve to be favored. However, let's return to the teams' Week 1 games. The Chiefs looked shaky for three-quarters last week, while the Ravens looked pretty good darned for three-quarters. However, KC won when the Browns 'woke up and remembered they were the Browns. As for the Ravens, they led 17-10 after three quarters, but an uncharacteristic meltdown in the fourth quarter saw them give up 17 points, before then losing by six more in OT. Bottom line? Kansas City likely shouldn't have won last week and Baltimore likely shouldn't have lost. A loss by Baltimore here drops them to 0-2 with the next two games on the road. Note that Baltimore has covered its last five regular season games as an underdog. Can you say SIX in a row. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The 1-0 Chargers welcome the 0-1 Cowboys to Los Angeles on Sunday, looking to start a season 2-0 for the first time since 2012. The Chargers escaped with a 20-16 road victory at Washington in Week 1, while the Cowboys lost a 31-29 heart-breaker at Tampa on Opening Night (on a last-second FG) and now look to avoid starting a season 0-2 for the first time since 2010. Dak Prescott was 42 of 58 for 403 yards, three touchdowns and an INT in the Cowboys Week 1 loss. Justin Herbert threw for 337 yards and a touchdown for the Chargers last weekend. Neither QB got any help from his running game, as Dallas ran for only 60 on 3.3 YPC (Elliott had just 33 yards) and Los Angeles ran for 90 yards on 3.1 YPC (Ekeler led with 57 yards). The big difference was on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas forced Tampa into four takeaways but still allowed 31 points on 431 yards. As for the Chargers' D, it held Washington to 16 points on only 259 yards. Prescott looked great in his first game back from a gruesome, season-ending leg injury last year. However, in the end, the Cowboys' poor offensive ways from last season carried over and in the end cost the team a victory. In comparison, LA converted 14-of-19 third down attempts. The 14 third-down conversions were the most by any team in the last decade in a single game. That number included Herbert and the offense converting four straight third downs to seal the victory at the end of the game. Both teams have tough games coming up. The Cowboys host the Eagles next Monday, while the Chargers travel to KC to face the Chiefs. Here's what I see in LA from the Chargers. The team is healthier, has an upgraded offensive line, improved special teams and solid coaching now with Brandon Staley in for Anthony Lynn. Herbert passed a major test against an aggressive Washington defense in Week 1 and now he faces likely one of the worst units in the entire league. I don't see any regression happening for Herbert, especially not against this weak Cowboys defense, which will be playing without its top pass-rushers. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence fractured his foot in Wednesday's practice The Cowboys are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games (going back to late 2019) and I don't see them 'sneaking' under the number again this week at a MUCH-improved Chargers team. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET. The Cardinals looked great in their 38-13 destruction at Tennessee in Week 1 over the Titans. However, I think it's possible they just may get caught a little too contented here against a dangerous Vikings team looking to bounce back from a tough 27-24 OT loss at Cincinnati. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was 36 of 49 for 351 yards and two touchdowns (both to Adam Thielen, who caught nine balls). RB Dalvin Cook was "off his game with just had 61 yards (3.1 YPC) and a TD, while adding four catches for 43 Yards. The Vikings D allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 261 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) plus allowed Joe Mixon 127 yards rushing. The defense will have to play MUCH better, as Kyler Murray is the best combination passer/runner among all NFC quarterbacks. He threw for 289 yards at Tennessee with four TF+D passes plus ran for a fifth score. Hopkins and Kirk are two outstanding WRs and each caught a pair of TDs. That said, the Vikes had to deal with a couple of unlucky bounces at the end of their game with Bengals. As long as Kirk Cousins isn't playing in prime time, he's usually very solid. He was last week as well in the loss, but either way, I do think Minnesota can keep this very competitive again. Arizona is unfamiliar with being as home favorite, as it has happened just NINE time since the start of the 2018 and guess what? Thar cards are just 2-7 ATS in that roll. Yes, I have to point out that Minnesota's Week 1 loss is the team's EIGHTH consecutive ATDS loss going back to Week 11 of 2020. My answer to that is this team is TOO talented for that to continues and I say this a "perfect" spot for not just an ATS win but a SU one. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Mariners -125 v. Royals | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 2:10 ET. The KC Royals have faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 67-80, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. However, they can still have a say in other teams' chances to play past Oct 3. That's exactly what KC did on Saturday, beating the Mariners 8-1 (Seattle won Friday's game 6-2). The Mariners arrived in KC having lost four of their last five (had also lost three straight series!) and now find themselves in a critical situation in Sunday's rubber match. Seattle is FOUR games back of the No. 2 wild card spot in the AL (held by the Blue Jays) and also would have to first climb over the A's and Yankees. Seattle almost "can't afford" NOT to take Sunday's finale and with what I feel to be the superior starting pitcher on the hill for them, I like the Mariners to respond to yesterday's defeat. The Mariners hand the ball to rookie Logan Gilbert (5-5, 4.97 ERA), who has seen Seattle go 13-8 in his starts (+$856 moneyline record is 8th-best among all MLB starters!). He had an awful August (0-3 with a 9.17 ERA in five starts / team was 0-5) but in three September starts, he owns a 2.35 ERA. He enters off likely his best start of the season, allowing two runs and striking out nine over six innings, unfortunate to earn a no-decision for his effort. The home side counters with volatile rookie Jackson Kowar (0-3, 11.50 ERA), who was shelled for five runs off three hits with four walks over just one inning in an unbelievably fortunate no-decision against the A's on Tuesday. Kowar has made six appearances (five starts) and to go along with that 'ugly' ERA, he owns a 2.17 WHIP and a .333 BAA! In THREE of his five starts, he's lasted 0.2, 1.1 and 1.0 innings! Considering the massive talent discrepancy and recent form of these starting pitchers, plus the fact that Seattle owns MLB's second-best moneyline mark (only the Giants are better), I think that the Mariners could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this important contest. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Dodgers v. Reds +174 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* "1st Pitch" is on the Cin Reds at 1:10 ET. It's all hands on deck for Cincinnati! The panic button has been pressed. The Reds need a winning streak here to finish off the regular season and stay in the mix, after losing SIX of their last 10. The Reds currently trail the Cardinals by two games for the NL's wild card spot plus are just a half-game ahead of both the Phillies and Padres. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, who have won EIGHT consecutive NL West titles, find themselves TWO games behind the Giants. Both SF and LA have clinched playoff spots but there is a HUGE difference between winning the division and having to play a one-game, lose-or-go-home wild card game. The Reds won Friday night but lost 5-1 to the defending champs on Saturday. A win here would be a HUGE boost for Cincy's confidence and I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry home underdog. Clayton Kershaw (9-7, 3.33 ERA) toes the slab for the visiting side, and he most recently returned from injury and gave up one run over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Monday (it was his first start since July 3rd!). It's difficult to say anything negative about the veteran, but if he's had one knock against him, it's definitely been his play on the road where he's 4-4 with a 4.12 ERA (compared to 5-3, 2.75 at home). Also note that while LA is 12-7 in his starts, he's -$48 vs the moneyline. The Reds counter with Wade Miley (12-6, 3.09 ERA), who enters off his worst start of the season, allowing six runs over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Tuesday. However, Miley could be headed for a career season (his career began back in 2011), topping his 14-6 (3.98 ERA) for Houston in 2019. It was just the second time this season he's conceded six or more runs. I say it's too early to hit the panic button on Miley and he should feel confident that he can bounce back here as he's 7-3 with a 2.88 ERA in front of the hometown crowd this season. The Dodgers have a night off Monday, before back-to-back favorable road series at Colorado and Arizona. I say they get caught looking ahead here as well. This one means A LOT to Cincinnati. I like the Reds to dig deep and for Miley to bounce back at home. The play is the Reds. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET. Cincinnati held on for dear life in an emotional 27-24 OT win over the Vikings in Week 1. The Bengals gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter, including a game-tying 53-yard FG (0:00) to send the game into OT. However, Cincy did eke out the win. Meanwhile, the Bears 'took it on the chin' in LA in the season's first Sunday night game, losing 34-14. It was just 13-7 at the half but the Rams won the second half 21-7, as Stafford threw for 321 yards and three TDs in his LA debut. Joe Burrow was solid (20 of 27 for 261 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) plus RB Mixon was a pleasant surprise with 127 rushing yards. However, the Cincy 2ndy was riddled by Cousins, who threw for 351 yards and two INTs without an INT despite 49 attempts. As noted above, Chicago's 2ndy wasn't any better than Cincy's. Veteran Andy Dalton is the Chicago starter at QB and he did not play well in his Chicago debut. However, the Bears did run for 134 yards (5.2 YPC) with Montgomery getting 108 on 6.8 YPC. Taking a look at this game reminds me that the worst thing bettors can do is to overreact at the beginning of the season. Not every team that struggles in Week 1 will continue to do so (and vice versa). Being successful in the NFL is much like handicapping the NFL, as making adjustments from week to week is crucial. The good news for the Bears? The NFC North is wide open, as Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay also all lost. The Packers looked pathetic. The Bengals on the other hand, are at their arch-nemesis Pittsburgh next week, followed by a Thursday night game at home against the Jaguars. Can anyone say letdown spot? This is a solid great situational play, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after a 20 points or greater SU loss in its previous outing. What's more, Cincy head coach begins his third season with the Benagls and over the first two, the Bengals are just 2-14 SU on the road. Not much to 'cover' here and I expect Dalton to lead the Bears to a VERY satisfying win, that would at worst, leave them tied for the division lead. Small steps. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 49.5 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Featured Sunday Total is on SF/Phi Over at 1:00 ET. A couple of confident 1-0 teams collide in Week 2 and everything points to a shootout, rather than a chess match. San Francisco got an excellent game from QB Jimmy G (17 of 25 for 314 yards with one TD and zero INTs) and opened up a 38-10 lead in the 3rd quarter at Detroit last Sunday, However, the Lions scored 23 points in the final 16 1/2-minutes of the game to get the 'back-door' cover. That second half defense collapse doesn't bode well heading to Philadelphia to face Jalen Hurts and this high-flying Eagles offense. Philadelphia only had a 15-6 halftime lead over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday, but it dominated the second half en route to a 32-rout. QB Jalen Hurts looked sharp, finishing with 264 passing yards and three TDs, to three different receivers also had 62 rushing yards. RB Miles Sanders is healthy (that's BIG deal) and he added 74 rushing yards plus 39 receiving yards. Shutting down Atlanta is one thing, but doing the same to the 49ers will be much more difficult. San Francisco posted an 8.0-yard average while on offense. It did lose a couple fumbles (still scored 41 points) but it punted only twice and it conceded just a single sack. Making this an over play is that the San Francisco pas D allowed Detroit's Jared Goff to throw for 338 yards and three TDs. This game will be competitive and VERY high-scoring. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | Bills v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC East) is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott took over the Bills in 2017 and promptly ended Buffalo's 17-year postseason drought. As he enters fifth season as Buffalo's head coach, he's led the Bills to THREE playoff appearances in his first four seasons, including falling just ONE win shy of the team's first Super Bowl appearance since the 1993 season in 2020 when they lost the AFC championship game 38-24 at KC. Miami's Brian Flores begins his third season with the Dolphins and his team just missed a playoff berth in 2020, finishing 10-6. Optimism was running high in Miami entering 2021, especially for a franchise that has made just TWO playoff appearances in the previous 19 years! The teams got off two different starts in Week 1, as the Bills were upset 23-16 at home by the Steelers, while the Dolphins ruined Mac Jones' NFL debut with a 17-16 win in New England. The Bills allowed Pittsburgh to score 17 points in the fourth quarter, seven coming on a blocked punt TD return. Josh Allen had a breakout season in 2021 but looked no better than OK, throwing for 270 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) but that came on 51 attempts! In the end, Allen led his team to just 16 points! Tua Tagovailoa had 202 passing yards, one TD, and one INT last week He got little help from a running game that was held to just 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC). The Miami defense allowed Jones to throw for 281 yards (no INTs) and RB Harris had 100 yards on the ground but in the end, the Pats could only muster 16 points (the one stat that matters MOST!). It might be easy to call for a Buffalo bounce back after a humbling home loss to the Steelers in Week 1, but the Bills may just be the most overhyped team in the league. My call here is for Miami to earn a second straight AFC East win, as the Dolphins jelled in the second half of last season and opened 2021 with a win over Belichick in his backyard last Sunday. Miami left backers smiling down the stretch of 2020, covering SIX straight at home, winning FIVE of them SU (lone loss, but an ATS win, was against KC). Josh Allen is NO Patrick Mahomes and how sweet would a Miami win be? The Dolphins were the only AFC East team to win in Week 1 and a "W" in this one would move them to 2-0, with the Bills falling to 0-2. That's what I expect and any points are just a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Arizona State -4 v. BYU | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* CFB Week 3 Marquee is on Arizona St at 10:15 ET. Both Arizona St and BYU have opened 2-0. The Sun Devils haven't really been tested, rolling at home 41-14 over Southern Utah and 37-10 over UNLV. Meanwhile, BYU opened with a 24-16 win in Las Vegas over Arizona and then followed with a 26-17 'Holy War' win over Utah in Provo (ended a 9-game losing streak in the rivalry).
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09-18-21 | Padres +108 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 7:15 ET. The SD Padres broke a 13-year playoff drought going 37-23 in 2020 and were expected to be the Dodgers' main competition in the NL West in 2021. However, it's been the Giants battling with LA for the division's top spot, while the Padres find themselves in a life-and-death struggle to earn the NL's No. 2 wild card spot. The Padres broke a five-game slide with two crucial wins at San Francisco earlier this week, but they then came out flat and fell 8-2 in the opener of this series with the Cards yesterday. San Diego has now lost SEVEN of 10 and at 77-71, are 1 1/2-games back of 77-69 St Louis, which has won EIGHT of 10, including SIX in a row (note: Cards have made the postseason in SEVEN of the last 10 years).. The final two games of this series are HUGE for both teams, as the Reds are also in the hunt for that No. 2 spot with a 76-71 record. Yu Darvish (8-10, 4.32 ERA) starts for the Padres and Adam Wainwright (16-7, 2.88 ERA) for the Cards. Darvish has been a major disappointment for San Diego, after the team won 11 of his first 12 starts in 2021. The Padres are just 5-10 over his last 15 starts, with Darvish coming off of his worst outing of the season. The San Francisco Giants had four HRs and scored EIGHT runs in four innings off him during their 9-1 victory last Monday. In contrast, Wainwright has defied the odds (and age) to put together his best season since he won 20 games twice and 19 games twice in a five-season span from 2009-14 (he sat out all of the 2011 season). Wainwright has gone 9-1 (team is 10-1) over his last 11 starts, posting a 1.72 ERA. I won't even bother trying to 'knock' Wainwright. I will say this, though. St Louis is just 3-7 in its last 10 after five or more straight victories, while San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a five runs or greater loss to an opponent. Darvish has all the talent in the world and even in this disappointing season, his WHIP is just 1.09 and his KW ratio is 177-36! While many will likely be riding the Cardinals' recent surge (as well as Wainwright's), I say the value has now swung the other way. The play is San Diego. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -3 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Group of 5 Game of the Year is on Georgia St at 7:00 ET. The Charlotte football program was created in 2008 and gained FBS status in 2013. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. However, Charlotte has opened 2-0 in 2021, while Ga St sits at 0-2. Charlotte upset Duke 31-28 at home in Week 1 as a six-point underdog (the school's first-ever Power 5 win), before hammering Gardner-Webb 38-10 as a 22.5 point favorite. QB Reynolds has thrown for a modest 427 yards but his running game is averaging 230.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC ((leading rusher Camp has just 107 yards). Defense has been a major issue for Charlotte, as the 49ers entered the 2021 season having allowed more than 30 PPG is SIX of the last seven seasons. Those defensive woes haven't reared its ugly head yet this season, but it's coming (note: The 49ers allowed 352 rush yards (8.0 YPC) against Duke in the opener.). Georgia St was routed 43-10 at Army on Sep 4 and then last Saturday was in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing at North Carolina, which was coming off a season opening loss to Va Tech. NC's Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howell threw for 352 yards (three TDs) and ran for 104 yards with three TDs. The Tar Heels won 59-17. We just played a talented North Carolina team, and for two-and-a-half quarters, we fought and we scrapped and we clawed to try to hang in there," Panthers' head coach Shawn Elliott said earlier this week. "About six or seven minutes left in that third quarter, it was still a two-possession ballgame, but then it got away from us. So there were some positives, but obviously, no one in our football program is feeling good about where we are right now." Ga St opened the season with 11 returning starters on offense and eight on defense and will NOT face that kind of offensive talent here. The Panthers almost NEED to win this one, as a trip to Auburn is up next (0-4 start?). I think Charlotte's 2-0 start is a little bit of a 'mirage' and I expect an EASY win for the home side. After all, Charlotte is just 8-26 SU on the road the last six seasons and this is its first roadie of 2021. I like betting on motivated teams and there's NO question that the Panthers fit the bill and this contest is a big step down in competition, plus they got back some missing starters last week. That's the play. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Northwestern -2.5 v. Duke | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -117 | 118 h 50 m | Show |
The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on Northwestern at 4:00 ET. Both teams enter at 1-1, but I feel that this is a matchup which favors Northwestern. The Wildcats are the slight favorite here on the road, but I feel they could be much bigger ones. Northwestern is led by QB Hunter Johnson, who has 341 yards passing in the early going, with four TDs and just one INT. Evan Hull has 213 rushing yards and two TDs for the Wildcats. Gunnar Holmberg has 498 passing yards, one TD and no INTs for Duke (he also has 24 rushing yards and two TDs scored on the ground.) Mataeo Durant has carried the ball 44 times for a team-high 296 yards and six major scores. Northwestern was 7-2 last season after a bowl win over Auburn, ending as the AP's 10th-ranked team. Yes, the Wildcats returned only eight starters but I firmly believe they are a much stronger team than Duke, which was only 2-9 in 2020. Northwestern lost its season opener to Michigan St but the Spartans look like they'll be a top-25 team. Duke lost its opener at Charlotte and a 45-17 win over NC A&T means little. I'm not reading too much into Duke's early numbers, as its level of competition has skewed them on both sides of the ball. Pat Fitzgerald has had some career at Northwestern, leading the Wildcats to 10 bowl bids in the last 13 season (Northwestern has won its last four bowl games). Including this game, northwester has four Beatable foes over the next five weeks (one bye). Could this be the "start of something big?" Just maybe. For this one, lay the small spread. Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 64 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. |
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois +8 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Illinois at 9:00 ET. Maryland's opened the season 2-0, after playing just five games last season (2-3). The Terps upset West Va in 9/4 at home 30-24 and then routed Howard 62-0 last Saturday (again at home). QB Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown six TDs (zero INTs). The defense posted a shutout last weekend, after holding West Va to a modest 20 points. However, for me, this is a classic case of not "overreacting" to early numbers (more in a bit). Illinois finished 2-6 last year, firing head coach Lovie Smith after seven games. The Illini hired Bret Bielema, who was terrific at Wisconsin but a flop at Arkansas. He took over a program that last posted a winning season in 2011! The 2021 season got off to an excellent start, as Illinois upset Nebraska at home 30-22 on Aug 28 but the team has since lost 37-30 at home to UTSA (9/4), before getting routed 42-14 on 9/11 at UVa. Peters was the returning starter at QB but was injured early vs Nebraska and has not returned. Artur Sitkowski has stepped in and has six TDs and just one INT (don't blame him!). There will be NO lack of motivation here for the Illini, as a loss just could send Bielema's first season at College Park spiraling out of control. I believe Maryland is nowhere near as good as its 2-0 start and with games coming up against Iowa (10/1) and at Ohio St (10/9) coming up soon, I expect the Terps to get 'exposed.' Hey, why not start that process right here, as the Terps are just 3-11 SU on the road the last three seasons. Does that sound like a team that is supposed to be a road favorite of a TD or more? "Bow wow" The Illini 'bark' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-17-21 | Mariners -112 v. Royals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Sea Mariners at 8:10 ET. The KC Royals have faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 66-80, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. However, they can still have a say in other teams' chances to play past Oct 3. One of those teams is the Seattle Mariners, who visit Kauffman Stadium for a three-game series with the Royals starting tonight. The Mariners come to KC having lost four of their last five (have also lost three straight series!) and are now FOUR games back in the AL's five-team 'scramble' for two wild card spots. If Seattle is going to play in the postseason, it's going to not only have to win some games, but it's also going to have to win some series. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Chris Flexen (11-6, 3.73 ERA) gets the ball for the Mariners. He began his career with the Mets, going 3-11 with an 8.07 ERA. He was designated for assignment in late 2019 and signed a one-year contract with KBO's Doosan Bears, the reigning Korean Series champion. Flexen pitched to a 3.01 ERA with 10.2 K/9 for the Bears in 2020. He then signed a two-year, $4.75 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. He's blossomed into Seattle's 'ace!' He's off a rare poor effort last Saturday against Arizona, allowing five runs over five innings. Note though, that in 27 starts this year Flexen has conceded more than four runs just five times. Seattle is 18-9 in his 27 starts, giving him a moneyline record of +$1,227 ($100/game) that is No. 1 among all MLB starters. The home side counters with Brady Singer (4-10, 4.85 ERA), who after posting his best start of the season (going seven scoreless against the White Sox), would then promptly get shelled in his next trip to the hill, allowing six runs off seven hits over four innings to the last-place Twins. Singer has made 25 starts in 2021 with KC going 8-17, giving him a moneyline record of -$766. Seattle is 6-0 in its last six road games against teams with losing records and with Flexen on the mound, this is a VERY favorable spot (and a GREAT price) for the Mariners to bounce back. Seattle does indeed earn 38-Club Play status! Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* NFC 'Least' Game of the Month is on the NY Giants at 8:20 ET. The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in 2020 at 7-9, earning the division the moniker of NFC 'Least.' In the just completed preseason, Washington was the ONLY team in the NFC East to win a game, going 1-2 SU but 0-3 ATS. As for the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants, they combined to go 0-9-1. How did things go in Week 1? The Eagles won impressively 32-6 in Atlanta and the Cowboys lost 31-29 at Tampa Bay on a last-second FG, but Washington and New York both lost (0-2 ATS). The Giants travel to D.C. off a 27-13 home loss to Denver, a game in which QB Daniel Jones scored on a 4-yard TD run with no time left on the clock. Washington's defense was the reason it won the division last season but that D allowed the Chargers to gain 424 yards and most notably, to convert 14 of 19 third down attempts. Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury early on (3 of 56 for 13 yards) and it looks as if Taylor Heinicke (from the FB powerhouse of Old Dominion) will be Thursday night's starting QB. It's a short week but I like the Giants. Daniel Jones looked OK, as he had 267 passing yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions (37 attempts. However, the Giants NEED a return to form by Saquan Barkley (10 carries for 26 yards). The Giants have 'owned' this series lately, winning the last FIVE (4-1 ATS). Want more? The Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on the road, while the Washington Football team is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six when playing the role of favorite. I expect an outright but grab as many points as you can, The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Important: As you can see by my write-up, I selected UNDER when I obviously meant Over! My 10* Division O/U of the Month (AL East) is on NYY/Bal Over at 5:05 ET.
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09-16-21 | A's -116 v. Royals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 2:10 ET. Toronto and New York are 82-64 and Boston is 83-65, placing them in a virtual tie atop the AL wild card standing (only two get in). The 78-67 Oakland A's 3 1/2-games back, so the A's can't afford to look past any opportunity for a win. That was the case last night as well, when the A's beat KC 12-10 (10* Las Vegas Insider win for my clients), one night after blowing a six-run lead in a 10-7 loss in the series opener. This afternoon contest closes out the series, with Oakland going with Paul Blackburn (0-2, 5.24 ERA) facing KC rookie Daniel Lynch (4-4, 5.37 ERA). Blackburn's in his fifth season and has made just 26 appearances (23 starts) with a 5-9 record (5.61 ERA) in his career. He's faced the Royals twice and he owns a 1-0, 4.50 ERA record against them. This selection is NOT about the starting pitchers. The Royals have d=faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 66-79, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. As noted, Oakland still has a viable chance to make it into its FOURTH straight postseason. The A's on the other hand are 12-4 in their last 16 on this field. Look for the 'hungry' Athletics to go up early and then never look back. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-21 | Padres -105 v. Giants | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the SD Padres at 9:45 ET. It's been quite a season for the Giants, who hadn't been relevant since 2015. San Francisco was the first team to clinch a playoff spot on Monday (9-1) and beat the Padres 6-1 again last night, giving them NINE straight wins and MLB's best overall record (95-50), as well as its best moneyline mark (+$3,354 at $100/game).
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09-15-21 | A's -135 v. Royals | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oak A's at 8:10 ET. KC made a pitching change and I've re-posted with new pitcher for KC. The KC Royals lost 104 games in 2018, 103 in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020. The Royals are currently 66-78 and will miss the postseason for the SIXTH straight year, after back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015 (won in 2015). As for the A's, they are in a five-team 'scramble' for one of the two AL wild card spots. Toronto, the NY Yankees and Boston are in a virtual three-way tie, while Seattle sits three back and Oakland 3 1/2-games back, after losing THREE in row. This will likely be a bit of "public" play, but regardless, after three straight losses and with their most consistent starter of late on the mound this evening, I like the Athletics to finally bounce back here with a solid victory. In contrast, the Royals are primed for a letdown after winning FOUR of their last five. Oakland hands the ball to Sean Manaea (9-9, 3.79 ERA), who is off a win on Thursday over the White Sox, giving up one run and striking out nine over seven innings. It was his second straight game with nine strikeouts and Manaea has allowed just three ERs in those last two starts (14 IP / 1.93 ERA). The home side was set to counter with Mike Minor (8-12, 5.05 ERA), who has admittedly looked much better over the last month, posting a 28/4 KW ratio since the beginning of August. However, after KC won four of his first five starts of 2021, the Royals are a money-burning 6-17 in his last 23 starts! The left-handed Minor should have all sorts of trouble here vs an Oakland team that is 39-17 in its last 56 road games vs a left-handed starter. However, a PC came through at 2:00 ET and the Royals will turn to Carlos Hernandez (6-1, 3.29). He was was initially scheduled to start Thursday but who has been moved up to start today. He's made 22 appearances, including nine starts. He's got MUCH better numbers than Minor (1.09 ERA in his last three outings) but I'm sticking with my original position. I say Oakland's three-game slide ends here with Manaea on the mound and the scheduling change definitely won't help the rookie hurler either. Lay the price and expect a solid victory for the A's. Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +125 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. I had a play on the Mariners as a slight underdog at home to the Red Sox last night, so congrats to all who joined me on that Late-Breaking winner.I believe Seattle carries that momentum over. Great value on the Mariners to keep things rolling in a positive direction here at home against this wounded Red Sox side (as noted yesterday, a recent breakout of COVID-19 has seen over a dozen players and staff hit the IL). Natahan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.57 ERA) takes the mound for the Red Sox, while the Mariners counter with Tyler Anderson (6-9, 4.20 ERA). Eovaldi went seven scoreless against the Rays in his last outing and he's been great of late, posting a 2.05 ERA over his last five starts. However, He owns a 4.67 ERA in five career outings vs Seattle. Anderson gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Wednesday. Anderson only has one victory in eight starts for the Mariners but he has posted a 3.83 ERA and amassed 34 strikeouts over 44.2 innings. As I noted yesterday, Seattle owns MLB's second-best moneyline record (+$2,986 at $100/unit). Only the Giants are better at +$3,302 (note: San Francisco's 94-50 record is 16 games better than that of Seattle!). I say the momentum that Seattle has created is real. Boston is limping towards the finish line and I expect that trend to continue here. Once again, the "PRICE is Right" on Seattle. I love the home side in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-21 | Rays +120 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the TB Rays at 7:07 ET. The Toronto Blue Jays were 69-62 after Aug 31 but have gone 12-1 in September, after Monday's 8-1 win over the Ryays in the opener of a three-game series. 89-55 Tampa Bay is still EIGHT games ahead of Toronto in the AL East but Toronto's surge has them atop the wild card standings, albeit by just ONE game over the Yankees and Red Sox (Mariners and A's are also lurking). How does that saying go? All good things must come to an end? Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-21 | Brewers v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Mil/Det Under at 6:40 ET. Milwaukee barely made the expanded playoff field in 2020, 'sneaking' in at 29-31. However, the Brewers have no such worries in 2021, as at 89-55 they own a 14-game lead over the Reds in the NL Central. Detroit has no playoff aspirations, as the tigers check in at 68-76 (.472). That said, Detroit fans have to be happy that the Tigers are MUCH more respectable this season, after losing 98, 98 and 114 games from 2017 thru 2019, then going 23-35 (.397) in 2020's COVID-shortened season. These are two teams that normally struggle to plate runs on the best of nights and I expect that to be the case in the opener of this interleague series.
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09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +109 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 109 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. 80-63 Toronto and 81-64 Boston currently own the two AL wild card spots but the 79-64 Yankees are just ONE game back, while Seattle and Oakland (both 77-66) are two games back of New York and THREE back of Toronto and Boston. That's FIVE teams vying for two playoff berths. The Red Sox and Mariners open a VERY important three-game series tonight in Seattle. The Red Sox have remained in the race, despite having to deal with a recent breakout of COVID-19 which has seen over a dozen players and staff hit the IL. Boston comes to town with zero momentum, losing two of three at the White Sox over the weekend, giving them FIVE losses in their last seven games. Seattle had won SEVEN of nine but then dropped back-to-back home games to the sad-sack D'backs Saturday and Sunday at home. "No one expected us to even be in this spot, regardless. We've got nothing to lose," Seattle shortstop J.P. Crawford remarked after Sunday's tight 5-4 loss to Arizona. Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 5.15 ERA) gets the nod for the Red Sox, while the Mariners counter with rookie right-hander Logan Gilbert (5-5, 5.10 ERA). Rodriguez has had success against the Mariners in the past, but I say that was THEN, and this is NOW. Boston is just 5-12 in its last 17 road games against teams with winning records and Seattle is 11-5 in its last 16 as a home underdog. More notably, Seattle owns MLB's second-best moneyline record (+$2,872 at $100/unit), as only the Giants are better at +$3,204 (note: San Francisco's 93-50 record is 16 games better than that of Seattle!). The "PRICE is Right" on Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic play is on Bal/LV Under at 8:15 ET. Baltimore has a really good team. It has a dynamic offense that averaged 29.3 points per game last year. The offense is run by LaMar Jackson, who had 2,757 yards, 26 TDs, and nine INTs last year. He also led the team with 1,005 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. But how will Baltimore adjust after losing Marcus Peters, J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards to injury ALL in the last week?! That's obviously the big question Baltimore was one of the best on the defensive side of the ball last season, finishing by conceding just 18.9 PPG. This tough Ravens' defense will be tasked to slow down Derrick Carr, who had 4,103 yards passing, 27 TDs, and nine INTs last year. Las Vegas also has a strong run game with Josh Jacobs, who had 1,065 rushing yards and 12 major scores last year. If Jon Gruden is going to make the playoffs with his new team for the first time in four years, clearly Las Vegas has to address its issues on the defensive end, a unit that conceded 29.9 PPG last year. I don't think Harbrough wants to let Gruden and the Raiders control the tempo. Baltimore wants to wear this home side down and win the war in the trenches and with great field position created by its defense. There are many different variable factors at play here that make me believe we'll see a low-scoring defensive game, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-21 | Cardinals v. Mets +104 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* NL Game of the Month is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. This is a big game and a big series for each playoff-hopeful club. In my opinion, the home-field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor though. The Cardinals are 73-69, just ONE game back of the NL's No. 2 wild card spot (SD and Cincy are tied), while the 72-72 Mets are TWO games back of the Cards, with just THREE weeks to go. St. Louis turns to Adam Wainwright (15-7, 2.98 ERA), while New York counters with Rich Hill (6-6, 3.82 ERA). Hill will be especially motivated here, as he remains winless since coming over to the Mets, despite pitching well. Last Wednesday he gave up one run over six innings in a loss to the Marlins. In nine games, eight starts for the Mets he's posted a 3.71 ERA and gone 0-2 (Mets are 3-5 in his starts). As for Wainwright, he lost his first game after the All Star break to leave him 7-6 in 18 starts (team was 9-9), despite a respectable 3.71 ERA. However, he's 'turned back the clock' since that time, going 8-1 with a sub-2.00 ERA in his last 10 starts (Cards are 9-1). Wainwright is 6-6 with a 4.95 ERA in 15 regular-season games against the Mets, while Hill is 4-1 with a 4.38 ERA in nine career games against the Cardinals. Stepping in front of Wainwright is NOT easy to do but St. Louis though is just 2-8 in its last 10 after a shutout home victory over an opponent (2-0 win yesterday over the Reds), and I expect that trend to continue here. I like the Mets to strike first in this important National League series on Monday night. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Bears +9 v. Rams | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -125 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the Chicago Bears. Both teams are starting new quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford is going to have his hands full now that he's out of the dome in Detroit and amidst the difficult NFC West. Andy Dalton will get the call to start off with in Chicago, with Justin Fields as a very capable backup ready to step in if needed. I think the Bears veteran can match Rams' new QB Matthew Stafford's performance (who will face his former team the Lions in Week 7.) The Rams also have to still fill the void left by Cam Akers, who was lost to a torn Achilles. Granted, the Rams have bigger playmakers on both sides of the ball, but I'm not convinced that Stafford is going to be able to seamlessly fit into this West Coast offense and Conference overall. The Rams also have to transition for a tricky non-conference road game at Indianapolis next weekend, before then returning home to host the defending champs. The Bears on the other hand have a very manageable early schedule, which sees them return home to face the Bengals next, followed by the Browns and Lions. All games are important in a 17 game season, but the Bears will be looking really good if they can manage to pull off a road upset here. One final thing, Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten NFC road games as an underdog in the +6.5 to +8.5 points range. I'm not calling for the outright. But everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. As such, grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Browns +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 151 h 15 m | Show |
My AFC 10* Game of the Month is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET. Both teams are predicted to do well this season. Obviously, that's no surprise for KC but it looks as if Cleveland has finally "turned the corner." The Chiefs have exceeded their O/U season win total eight seasons in a row. They're a +445 favorite to win Super Bowl 56 and +234 leader to repeat as conference Champion. These teams played here last season in the divisional round of the playoffs, and Kansas City had to hold on for dear life in the 22-17 victory. Chiefs' star QB Patrick Mahomes left that one early with an injury. What I do definitely think can't be ignored though, is that the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series, including the playoffs. Cleveland has gotten progressively better each of the last five seasons and that progression is going to continue this year. Especially on the defensive side of the ball, as it concentrated heavily in that department in the offseason, signing Jadeveon Clowney and drafting Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II at No. 26 overall. This is a big contract year for Browns' QB Baker Mayfield. He'll benefit from a 100% healthy Odell Beckham Jr. Note that Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will once again be contending at the end of the season. Of course, they will be. I won't try and bash Kansas City, it's obviously one of the best in the entire league and as long as Mahomes stays healthy, a Super Bowl victory is definitely a very real possibility again. However, KC went just 8-11 ATS last year including the playoffs. Anything can happen in Week 1. It's unpredictable. The bottom line is, I think that Mayfield has the offense around him to keep pace with Mahomes. In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* IL Total of the Week is on Arz/Sea Under at 4:10 ET. Arizona has seen the total go over the number in EIGHT of its last 10 games, including the first two of this series.Seattle won 5-4 in Game 1 before Arizona won 7-3 here yesterday. Seattle has now seen the total go over the number in EIGHT straight (it's interesting to note though that the Mariners have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last 10 after playing to five or more straight overs in a row). So the fact that we've now seen eight straight overs from Seattle makes this trend even stronger in my opinion.) Tyler Gilbert (1-2, 3.12 ERA) gets the nod for Arizona. He's been decent, not great. He most recently is off a no-decision to Seattle last week, allowing three runs with four strikeouts over seven innings. The home side counters with Yusei Kikuchi (7-8, 4.32) who is off likely the worst start of his career, allowing six runs over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Astros on Monday. |
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09-12-21 | Reds -121 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 2:15 ET. The Reds have been trading wins and losses over their last five games and after yesterday's 6-4 loss here in St. Louis, I expect this pattern to continue. St. Louis has another tough series against the Mets up in New York starting tomorrow. The home side hands the ball to the volatile JA Happ (8-8, 6.20 ERA), who gave up four runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Happ is in terrible form, as he's been shelled for 11 earned runs over his last two outings spanning just six frames of work. The Reds saw Happ on September 1st and they lit him up for seven runs, so I am expecting another "long day" for the veteran here. The Reds definitely have the advantage in this starting pitching matchup as they see Sonny Gray (7-6, 3.88) toe the rubber. He most recently allowed three runs and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Monday. Over his last eight starts Gray has been "on point," posting a 2.89 ERA and sparkling 0.92 WHIP (Res are 6-2 in those starts). He's been at his best on the road as well, going 3-4 with a 4.65 ERA at home but 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA on the road. Look for Gray to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart and lay the reasonable price on Cincinnati. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills UNDER 49 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 146 h 7 m | Show |
My NFL Week 1 Featured Sunday Total is a 9* on Buf/Pit Under at 1:00 ET. Pittsburgh did well in the preseason, but without really addressing many issues across its offensive line in the offseason, many experts believe the Steelers are poised for a major step-back this year. Clearly, Ben Roethlisberer isn't getting any younger or more mobile, and I think he's going to be running for his life today against this revamped Buffalo pass rush in its first game of the season in front of the hometown crowd. Steelers' veteran head coach Mike Tomlin knows this though. And so we can expect the visiting side to run the ball early and often. This will also keep this potent Buffalo offense off the field as long as possible as well. Pittsburgh's strength last year was on the defensive side of the ball and that'll once again be the case this season. Buffalo has a Top-5 QB in Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs put up huge numbers in his first season with the Bills last year. But with a Week 2 matchup at division rival Miami in Week 2, the temptation to look ahead and be planning for that one is there as well for the home side. This is an explosive Buffalo offense, but it faces one of the stiffest defenses it'll see all season right out of the gates. If the Bills want to take the next step though, clearly they'll have to once again make strides on the defensive side of the ball. I expect a lot of running from each side. Also some hard-hosed defensive play. This total is more than a little too high. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Jax Jaguars at 1:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis Monday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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09-12-21 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 82 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Seattle at 1:00 ET. Seattle has made the playoffs in EIGHT of the last nine years. The 'Hawks won 12 games last year. The Colts also made the playoffs last season, while winning 11 games. Seattle is a difficult offensive team for anyone to handle and it all starts with QB Russell Wilson. He has plenty of 'weapons' around him, including RB Chris Carson and WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks have a strong defense as well, one which includes Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs, and DJ Reed. Seattle is poised for a big year defensively, many feel a unit that could rival the famed "Legion Of Boom." The Colts played amazingly well with Philip Rivers under center last year, but Carson Wentz will be the FOURTH new starting QB for Indianapolis in the last four seasons. RB Johnathan Taylor was big last year, and the defense was a strength as well for Indianapolis. Seattle comes in as the road favorite, meaning oddsmakers would make them about a TD favorite on a neutral field. I'd agree with that plus Seattle owns a distinct advantage at the QB position. Wentz has struggled the last few seasons, and he's on a new team under a new system and I just can't see him keeping pace with Wilson's offense down the stretch. Lay the short price. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Utah v. BYU +7 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 67 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Rivalry Game of the Year is on BYU at 10:15 ET. Utah visits BYU (both teams have opened 1-0) for the school's annual "Holy War" for the Beehive Boot. Utah is off a 40-17 win over Weber State, while BYU beat Arizona 24-16 in Las Vegas. The two bitter rivals did not meet last season (COVID) for just the SECOND time since 1946. To say this is a "revenge" game for BYU would be an understatement, as it's lost nine straight in this series. |
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09-11-21 | Yankees -114 v. Mets | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Larry's 10* 'Battle 4 New York' is on the NY Yankees at 7:40 ET. The NY Yankees won 13 straight from August 14 through August 27 to reach 76-52. However, they have collapsed in the two weeks since, dropping 11 of their last 13. Their 10-3 loss last night to the Mets marked the team's SEVENTH straight loss. As for the Mets, they were 55-46 through July 28 but then lost 21 of 28 to fall to 62-67. That said, the Mets have 'righted the ship, winning NINE of 13 after last night to get back to .500 (71-71). The Yanks currently still own the No. 2 wild card spot but the Blue Jays are just a half-game back with Seattle and Oakland just one game back. The Jays keep winning and the Yankees keep losing. It's going to be a dog-fight until the end for the wild card spots in the American League this season. I like New York to dig deep and to finally get off the schneid with a victory in Game 2 of this "Subway Series." The visitors hand the ball to Corey Kluber (4-3, 3.69 ERA), who gave up two runs with five strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to Baltimore last weekend. It was his second start back from injury. He has a 1.28 WHIP and 66/28 KW ratio. The Mets counter with Taijuan Walker (7-9, 4.15 ERA), who enters in terrible form, most recently allowing six runs over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Sunday. Walker's fantastic start to the 2021 campaign is now fully in the rear-view mirror, as he's gone 0-6 over his last eight starts (Mets are 1-7). Finally, note that New York is a sharp 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it conceded 10 or more runs in. This is a great price on a desperate team. ENOUGH is ENOUGH! The play is the Yankees. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Memphis v. Arkansas State +5.5 | Top | 55-50 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 7:00 ET. Arkansas State comes in under the radar here in my opinion. The Red Wolves are off a relatively simple 40-21 win over Central Arkansas as 14-point favorites and I believe they have a legitimate shot at winning today's game outright. Memphis is off a 42-17 win over Nicholls State, but with a game at home against Mississippi State next weekend, I believe the Tigers are going to get caught looking ahead to that much more high-profile matchup. Seth Henigan had 265 yards passing and a TD for Memphis last weekend, while Brandon Thomas rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown. Not to be outdone though, the Red Wolves got a couple of good performances, as James Blackman threw for 169 yards in last week's win, while Layne Hatcher threw for 150 yards and 4 TDs on a perfect 12 of 12 passing! Alan Lamar led the rushing attack with 67 yards and a TD on 18 carries. These two teams are led by their dynamic offenses and everything points to an old-fashioned shootout. It really does have the feel to me of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one. As such, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* 'Best Bet' Total is on Was/Pit Over at 6:35 ET. Pittsburgh squeaked out a 4-3 win here yesterday. The Pirates have now seen the total go under the number in three straight (they've actually won three of their last four as well.) Washington has lost three of its last four and it's been alternating overs and unders for six straight games. After yesterday's low-scoring loss, I absolutely am expecting this strong pattern to continue here today. And really this is based completely upon these starting pitchers, both of whom I have no trust in whatsoever. Pittsburgh hands the ball to the volatile Wil Crowe (3-7, 5.94 ERA), who conceded seven earned runs over three innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Note that the rookie has been particularly inept on the road as well, going 2-2 with a 7.04 ERA. The home side counters with the equally as erratic Josiah Gray (0-2, 5.65), who was rocked for six runs off seven hits over three innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. He's now allowed six runs in each of his last two trips to the hill. As I said above, I DO NOT trust either of these starting pitchers. Finally, note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in EIGHT of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight unders in a row. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -120 | 121 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* CFB Week 2 Marquee is on Iowa St at 4:30 ET. Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17 in 2019. While it lost straight up, it did manage to cover the spread in that one, as it had 1.5 points afforded to it. This is a revenge game for the home side (these teams didn't face each other last season.) Iowa State likely got caught looking ahead to this game after having to hold on for a 16-10 win here over Northern Iowa last week. It was a lackluster effort, as the Cyclones were a 28.5 point favorite. Iowa clobbered Indiana 34-6 at home last weekend as a 3.5 point favorite. After this game though Iowa doesn't play again until October 1st, while Iowa State has a game at UNLV next weekend. Regardless, both teams come into this game 1-0 with Iowa St ranked No.. 9 and Iowa at No. 10 *up from No. 18). The Hawkeyes won 34-6 over Indiana last week but QB Spencer Petras threw for just 145 yards on 13 of 27 passing while also rushing for a score as well. However, the Iowa offense gained just 303 yards, scoring two TDs on INT returns. I seriously wonder if it's more a case of Indiana just playing terribly, rather than Iowa being a world beater right out of the gate to start the season. While Iowa State had a much more difficult time in its opening game, QB Brock Purdy quietly had 199 yards on 21 of 26 passing, while also rushing for 58 yards on nine carries (he's thrown 46 TDs vs 18 INTs the last two seasons). Breece Hall (led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards plus added 21 TDs) but had just 69 yards and a TD on 23 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. The Cyclones defense was also stout, allowing just 10 points to a dangerous Northern Iowa team. Yes, Iowa has won 13 of the last 17 meetings (plus enters on a seven-game winning streak after ending last season with six straight wins) but Iowa St has 20 returning starters and is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the -2.5 to -4.5 points range. Nothing but good things to say about Iowa's Kirk Ferentz but Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, and defeated Oregon 34-17. They finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Now it's time to win the "biggest-ever Cy-hawk game in series history. I like the revenge-minded home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is Iowa State. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army UNDER 55 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on WKU/Army Under at 11:30 am ET. Western Kentucky rolled to a 59-21 win over Tennessee Martin in Week 1, and that total flew well over the number. Army is off a convincing 43-10 win over Georgia State, and that total also eclipsed the posted number. These teams didn't play against each other in the shortened COVID season last year, but they did in 2019 and Western Kentucky managed the 17-8 victory. They'll likely get a few more combined points here in this one, but I definitely expect a very defensive affair again, one which is dominated by the run game by each team while on offense. Bailey Zappe completed an unrealistic 80 percent of his passes for 424 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception in his team's win over lowly Tennessee Martin. The Knights are a run-first team. QB Christian Anderson completed only 50 percent of his passes for 40 yards, one touchdown, and zero interception in last week's win (the Army Black Knights have only six touchdown passes dating back to last season.) Army racked up 258 rushing yards in Week 1 and it'll look for a duplicate performance here as well against the Hilltoppers. It's hard to get a firm read on either team's defense at this point, as their opening opponent was pretty weak. But the bottom line is, both defenses looked good and there's no reason not to think that consistent play won't be carried over here as well. Look for this one to be decided in the trenches. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-10-21 | Padres +153 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET. The stage is set for a minor upset in this National League West contest on Friday night. I like San Diego to dig deep and 'steal' the opener of this series at Chavez Ravine. This isn't about the starting pitchers. Joe Musgrove is 10-8 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP for the Padres, while Jose Urias is 16-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the Dodgers. Sure, Urias has that flashy 16-3 record but Musgrove has similar numbers across the board. For me, this one comes down to the recent form of each team. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to continue. At least for one more game anyways. The Padres have won three of their last four, but they can ill afford to take the foot off the gas with just a one-game lead in the wild card race. The Dodgers enter having lost two straight to the Cardinals, another team in a dog fight for a wildcard spot. LA is now second in the NL West behind the surprising Giants. The Dodgers are a playoff 'lock,' while the Padres are in a life-and-death struggle for that final wild card spot. the more desperate team. The value swings to this undervalued underdog. The play is on the Padres. Good luck...Larry |
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09-10-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on Tex/Oak Over at 9:40 ET. The Rangers and A's open a three-game series tonight in Oakland and I expect the opener to result in plenty of offense. The Rangers are a sad-sack 51-88, while the 76-64 A's are in a five-team 'scramble' for the AL's two wild card spots. There's no way I'm laying this large home price, but as I said already, I do think this one sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair. Texas hands the ball to Glenn Otto (0-0, 1.86 ERA), who has made two MLB starts for the club, including going five scoreless against the Astros in his big league debut. The book is still clearly out on the rookie though, and there's no question that he draws a tough opponent here, and in a difficult road venue as well. However, Texas enters having won four straight, tying a season-best streak. The A's counter with Paul Blackburn (0-2, 4.12), who has made just four starts (1.43 WHIP and .300 BAA). been consistently inconsistent all season. He's made two appearances vs Texas in his short career, allowing seven ERs in just five innings (12.60 ERA). The over has ca$hed in FIVE straight between the clubs, including in SIX of the last eight in this ballpark. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-10-21 | Reds -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 8:15 ET. The Reds will be desperate here as they've lost EIGHT of their 11 games, having now fallen one game back of the Padres for the final NL wild card spot. Cincinnati is coming off a 10-inning loss to the Cubs; "Obviously a tough, tough loss," Reds manager David Bell remarked after. "But we have a lot left ahead of us, and we put it behind us and we move forward. We just have to keep playing." The Cards split their most recent four-game series with the Dodgers and they sit three games back of San Diego in the race. The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (11-5, 3.76 ERA), who is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three starts against St. Louis this year (Reds are 3-0). He gave up four runs over five innings in a win over the Tigers in his last outing. The home side counters with the volatile Jon Lester (5-6, 4.89), who is 2-1 with a 4.62 ERA in seven starts (Cards are 4-3) since coming over from Washington. Lester's actually pitched well of late, and he's had success against the Reds in the past, but I still like Mahle in this spot. The Reds are also 7-2 in their last nine off a loss and playing with a day's rest. Look for Cincinnati to finally get back into the winner's circle tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 1 Season-Opener is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. Did anyone think the Buccaneers were really going to win the Super Bowl last year? They were one of the early favorites, but not many would have predicted Tampa winning the Super Bowl after about Week 14. Does anyone think Tampa can repeat? Even for the best teams of all time, repeating as NFL champion is an unbelievably difficult thing to do. The Bucs though are once again one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season and while Tom Brady and company may indeed go on to do just that, I think they'll have their hands full with Dak Prescott and a Cowboys team that will collectively be playing with a chip on their shoulders this season. Prescott got injured early on last year and the Cowboys went on to finish 6-10. The offense was decent even without Prescott in, but the problem for the Cowboys was on the other side of the ball. Dallas was active in the offseason to address several defensive issues, and I expect a dramatic improvement. Keep your eyes on Micah Parsons, who could easily win Defensive Player of the Year this season. What more can I say about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that hasn't been said a million times already? If you're wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly already know the strengths and weaknesses of the Buccaneers, also the cast of characters in all three phases, and the coaching staff as well. So why will Brady and Bruce Arians get caught "looking past" the Cowboys on Opening night? Tampa could be caught flat-footed here out of the gate, as it faces a relatively "simple" opening schedule, with Atlanta coming to town next Sunday, followed by road games at the Rams and Patriots. Dallas on the other hand has two straight road games to open the season, including a tough one at the Chargers in Week 2. I think Prescott and the Cowboys throw their best show in Week 1. I also expect the Dallas defense to be vastly improved this season. Will those things combine to deliver an outright victory for the visiting side in the Champs house? Probably not, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. These teams last met in 2018 when Dallas beat Tampa Bay for the 7th time in the last eight matchups. Is that old news? Yes, but this is NOT. The Bucs are on just a 7-19-2 ATS run as a non-division home favorite. As such, grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -109 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. I had a play on New York last night, and that came up short did have the Jays on Monday). I say that the Jays big run finally ends here though, as I look for the Yankees to dig deep and find a way to avoid the "DREADED" four-game sweep at home to their surging rival. The Jays are right back in the wildcard conversation now after SEVEN straight wins, but as the old saying goes, all good things must come to an end. New York will be hungry for sure to get back on track here, as the Yankees own the No. 2 wild card spot (Jays are 1 1/2-games back). The Jays hand the ball to Jose Berrios (2-2, 3.73 ERA), who gave up three runs off four hits and struck out seven over six innings in a big win over Oakland last weekend. He had an inconsistent August, and while he's looked better of late, I just feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The home side counters with Nestor Cortes (2-2, 2.67) who gave up one run with seven strikeouts over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Orioles on Friday. Over his last 24 innings of work, he's conceded seven runs. Over 67.1 innings of work overall this season he owns a respectable 71/21 KW ratio Finally, note, the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. I think we're getting great value on the hungry home side. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |