Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-21 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the CWS/Oak Over at 3:37 ET. The A's broke a four-game slide with a 5-1 win here yesterday. Oakland can't afford to take the foot off the gas, as it's now in a dog fight for one of two wildcard spots with the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners.The White Sox have a comfortable 11-game lead in the AL Central, but they've seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or fewer runs in. Reynaldo Lopez (3-1, 2.08 ERA), who gave up three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the lowly Royals on Saturday gets the start. Lopez has been great overall this year, but he's being forced into a starter's role out of necessity. Oakland counters with Sean Manaea (8-9, 3.91 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Blue Jays on Friday, allowing two runs over seven innings. He's been great overall, but it's interesting to note that he's 4-5 with a 3.37 ERA on the road, and just 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA at home. It's a big game for Oakland but note that the White Sox average 4.98 RPG on the road this year. The total has also gone over the number in five of Oakland's last six vs. other AL opponents. Lopez is going to only see a handful of innings in this one as well. When considering all of the above-listed information, I absolutely feel that the correct call as far as the total is concerned is on the over. And that's the play. It's Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-21 | Rays v. Red Sox +100 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. Boston's losing valuable ground in the American League Wild card race, as it's now lost three in a row. That includes two high-scoring losses here to AL East-leading Tampa at home to open this series. The Rays came from behind to win 11-10 in 10 innings in the first one, before then holding on for a 12-7 victory yesterday. Tampa continues to find ways to win, despite dealing with several key injuries to its lineup. Boston though is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 8-3 in its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed ten or more runs in. Tampa hands the ball to Shane McClanahan (9-5, 3.76 ERA), who is off a loss to these very Red Sox on Thursday, allowing four runs off eight hits over five innings. The rookie's been great, but he draws a difficult assignment here, in a difficult road venue as well. Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.73), who allowed three runs off six hits with nine strikeouts over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Indians on Friday. Over 156.2 frames of work this season, Eovaldi now owns a sharp 163/28 KW ratio and he's a highly respectable 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA at home this season. Enough is enough for Boston. The value has now finally swung the other way in this series. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -112 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AL East) is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The biggest story coming out of the All-Star break was New York's big win streak. The Yankees though enter hungry to break a string of poor play, as they've lost eight of 10, including four in a row.And that includes the first two games of this series. Toronto is desperate for victories as well as it tries to play catch up against the Red Sox, Yankees, and A's and it enters having won nine of its last 10, including six in a row. A letdown is now imminent though in my opinion for the visiting side after such a long stretch of great play. Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (5-2, 3.63 ERA), who has been fantastic overall this season for Toronto, but who enters off a troublesome start against the A's last Friday, allowing six runs off five hits over five innings, fortunate to escape with a no-decision. After a great start, is Manoah now starting to finally regress a little? It definitely wouldn't surprise me if it continued. Especially considering the circumstances, the opponent, and the venue. The home side counters with Luis Gil (1-0, 0.00), who is in the rotation out of necessity, but who may earn a permanent spot if he continues to throw so well. Over three starts Gil has allowed zero runs (15.2 innings), while also posting an 18/7 KW ratio. Despite the slide, New York is still 23-9 in its last 32 vs. right-handed starters. The Jays on the other hand are just 2-5 in their last seven as a road underdog. I think Toronto's streak ends here. Great value on the revenge-minded home side. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers +100 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Game of the Week is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET. Off a humbling 12-0 loss here yesterday, I like Milwaukee to dig deep and answer back here on Tuesday. Philadelphia has been playing better of late, as it's won eight of its last ten, including two in a row. However, I don't trust Aaron Nola on the road. Nola (7-7, 4.54 ERA) most recently was rocked for six runs off six hits with two walks over four innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals. It was his third time in his last five starts that he's failed to complete at least five frames. And unfortunately as eluded to above, while Nola is a respectable 4-3 with a 3.34 ERA at home he's a poor 3-4 with a 6.01 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Eric Lauer (4-5, 3.43), who has likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate this season. He is coming off a decent outing against the Giants, allowing one run off three hits with one walk and four strikeouts over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision for him. He is 1-2 over his last eight outings, despite posting a sharp 2.54 ERA. The Brewers have done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 8-2 in their last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss against an opponent. And yesterday's setback was an absolute beatdown! Look for the focused Brewers to get back on track with a convincing victory of their own on Wednesday night. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-21 | Rays v. Red Sox +100 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Division Dominator (AL East) is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. Boston let a big lead slip away late to the Rays yesterday, and it would eventually lose 11-10 in extra innings. With that frustrating loss fresh on the front of their collective minds, and with what I feel to be the superior starter on the hill for them, I think the Red Sox will answer back here on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 3.38 ERA), who most recently faced the Red Sox last Wednesday, giving up one run over four innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Rasmussen has been good since being moved from the bullpen out of necessity in mid-August, but the sample size is still too small in my opinion to draw any firm conclusions, and there's no question he draws a tough assignment today in this difficult road venue. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (11-7, 4.88), who is coming off a win over the Rays on Thursday, posting six strikeouts over seven scoreless innings. Boston is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded ten or more runs. I say this strong trend continues, as I look for Rodriguez to continue his progression here in this favorable matchup. Note: Boston is 17-9 in "E-Rod's" starts in 2021. Boston, at basically pick'em, is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on Min/Cle Under at 6:10 ET. The Twins are in the process of playing out the rest of the season, while the Indians still have hopes of going on a big win streak and sneaking into the playoffs. The opener of this series sets up as a lower-scoring one in my opinion. Cleveland hands the ball to Logan Allen (1-5, 6.62 ERA), who comes in under the radar, as over his last two outings he's posted an elite 2.13 ERA and 0.71 WHIP spanning 12.2 innings of work. This could be Allen's last start before heading back to the bullpen, and I think he'll make the most of it facing this poor Twins' hitting lineup. Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober (2-2, 3.98), who will work this game with Michael Pineda. Previous to that Ober allowed two runs and struck out five over six innings in a win over the Tigers. Over his last eight starts, he's now allowed 13 earned runs (2.81 ERA) with a 40/6 K/W in that span. I think the stage is set for these two "in form" starting hurlers to battle into the latter innings. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-21 | Blue Jays +118 v. Yankees | Top | 8-0 | Win | 118 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* 1st Pitch is on the Tor Blue Jays at 1:05 ET. This is a big series. More so for Toronto. It could be a case of too little too late, but Toronto isn't going down without a fight in its pursuit of a wild card spot. The Jays have rebounded and are playing well now, as they've won four in a row and seven of their last eight. That includes a crucial sweep of the A's at home over the weekend. Now they have a chance to catch the team that's sitting right ahead of them with another big effort to open up the week. The Yanks are now trending in the other direction, as they've lost SIX of their last eight, after winning 13 in a row. That includes losing two straight at home to Baltimore here, which culminated in Sunday's disappointing 8-7 setback. The recent form of these two line-ups plays a big part in my decision tonight. I also like the way this one sets up for Jays' starter Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-8, 3.92 ERA), who gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Orioles on Tuesday. Ryu wasn't great in August, but he's been solid on the road all season, entering with a 6-4, 3.37 ERA record away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (8-5, 4.44), who gave up six runs over four innings in a loss to the Angels on Tuesday. Taillon has struggled lately as well, failing to record a quality outing in four straight starts. Toronto's momentum carries over for at least one more game. Great value here on Ryu and the desperate visiting side. The play is the Blue Jays. Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* 'Bobby Bowden Bowl' is on Florida State at 7:30 ET. This will be an emotional contest for Florida State, as it is the Seminoles' first game since Bobby Bowden's death (the program will honor its legendary head coach before the game starts. It is also a very important season, as Florida State's 3-6 record last year was its worst since going 3-8 in 1975, the year before Bowden took over. Visiting Tallahassee Sunday night will be Notre Dame, which made the CFP last season and opens 2021 as the AP's 9th-ranked team. However, this is considered a "reloading" year for the Fighting Irish. Taking over at QB for Ian Book (a huge winner and third-down master) will be Wisconsin transfer, Jack Coan. His challenge is to lead an offense with just TWO returning starters. FSU features one of the best stories in college football this season with the debut of former UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton. Milton will be taking the field for the first time in 33 months, after suffering a knee injury against USF in November 2018. The injury was so gruesome that doctors had to consider amputation. After a grueling rehab process and a transfer to Tallahassee, Milton looks to complete a near-miraculous comeback. This is a great opportunity for the Seminoles to catch the Irish a little uncertain in a few areas. Mike Norvell steps in as FSU's new head coach and in four seasons at Memphis he led the tigers to a 38-15 record and four bowl berths. I like this guy and and he has all the tools in place to improve his offense dramatically this year. I'm not calling for an upset but the again, I may just be. Bottom line is, TAKE the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-21 | Mariners -127 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* IL Game of the Month is on the Sea Mariners at 4:10 ET. Seattle has won four in a row, including the first two in this series. I say the M's keep the foot on the gas here in this interleague series finale with their ace on the mound. Arizona has nothing to play for. Playing the role of spoiler can be fun and a motivational reason to play at the end of the season, but less so in Interleague action. The Mariners will feel confident handing the ball to Chris Flexen (11-5, 3.52 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Astros on Monday, allowing two runs off eight hits and two walks with four strikeouts over six innings. It was an August to remember for Flexen, who took to the hill six times and went who went 2-0 with a 2.68 ERA spanning 17 frames (note that he's 3-0 with a 2.98 ERA in all "day" games as well.) Arizona counters with Tyler Gilbert (1-2, 2.93) who was shelled for five runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Padres in his last outing. Gilbert threw a no-hitter in his first MLB start, but since then he's been rocked for nine runs over his last 15 outings. I say this steady slide down the proverbial toilet continues here against this playoff hopeful and surging Mariners side. All things considered, I think we're getting fantastic value on the better team and starting pitcher. Need more convincing? Seattle owns MLB's No. 1 moneyline mark at plus-$2,969 (at $100/game) and Flexen is MLB's top-money-earner among starters at 17-8, plus-$1,246! The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Nevada +3.5 v. California | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. Nevada and Cal open their respective season Saturday Sep 4 at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell and Cal by Justin Wilcox. Both arrived at their respective schools in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season in Reno but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wilcox was 5-7 in his first season but then led Cal to back-to-back bowls in 2018 and 2019. However, COVID pretty much wiped out Cal's entire 2020 season, as the Bears would play just four games (1-3). I like what Nevada brings to the table in Week 1. QB Carson Strong is expected to take another big step forward this year. Last season he finished with 2,858 yards, 70.1 percent passing, along with a sharp 27-4 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Toa Taua is now a senior and he finished with 675 rushing yards last year. Keep your eyes on WR Romeo Doubs as well, as he had 1,002 yards on 58 receptions in 2020. Nevada returns 10 starters on both offense AND defense. The Wolf Pack were the most penalized team in the MWC last year but with the core of each unit returning, this sloppy play is also expected to take a big turn in the right direction this season. Cal's defense has been solid the last few years, but the offense has struggled under QB Chase Garbers. He's dealt with several injury issues over the years. He'll benefit from having most of his starting receivers return this season but the offensive line is another issue entirely. The Cal offense was one-dimensional last year, as the OL was never able to stop any sort of a pass rush. Four of the five starters return up front for Cal, so the unit should/could make big progressions this season. Still, Cal offense averaged just 20.3 PPG on 320 YPG in 2020. Yes, Cal leads the series 22-3-1 but the schools have only met TWICE since 2010. Nevada won 53-21 in Reno back in 2010 and at Berkeley 31-24 in 2012. I believe Nevada is just too deep and have a hard time seeing this Cal offense keeping up the pace down the stretch. The Wolf Pack's defense was middle of the road last year, but with 10 starters returning, expect a significantly improved unit this season. I say that improvement starts right here in Week 1. I think the outright win is in the cards, but let's grab as many points as they give you. Closing clincher: Under HC Justin Wilcox, Cal is a money-burning 1-8-1 ATS as a home favorite. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Astros v. Padres -108 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Padres at 8:40 ET. San Diego needs to start stringing some wins together. It's out to stop a two-game slide, including a 6-3 loss here in the opener of this series with Houston. I had the Astros in that one last night. Congrats to any who tailed me. But here I think the value has swung the other way on the revenge-minded and hungry home side. The visitors hand the ball to Framber Valdez (9-4, 2.94 ERA), who gave up two runs over seven innings in a win over the lowly Rangers on Saturday. It's hard to find too many faults with Valdez, he's been solid both at home and on the road. But I like Joe Musgrove (9-8, 2.85) at home in this one. Musgrove is coming off another fantastic performance, this time allowing three hits with nine strikeouts over nine shutout innings in a win over the Angels on Friday. Over 148.1 innings of work this year, Musgrove owns a great 169/39 K/W. Musgrove has allowed just two earned runs over his last three home starts and I expect him to once again be on top of his game. The play is San Diego. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* NCAAF Week 1 Marquee is on Clemson at 7:30 ET. The No.3-ranked Clemson Tigers take on the No. 5-ranked Georgia Bulldogs Saturday night for the Duke's Mayo Classic in Charlotte. It marks the first meeting between the two regional rivals since 2014, Saturday night's prime time showdown has been eagerly anticipated since being announced last year that ESPN's "College GameDay" will be on hand. Clemson is coming off a 10-2 season that ended with a 49-28 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Sugar Bowl, while Georgia went 8-2 last season, capping its campaign with a 24-21 win over Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where Clemson has won the last four ACC championship games. Here's a list: 34-10 over Notre Dame. 62-17 over Virginia. 42-10 over Pittsburgh. 38-3 over Miami-Fl. Nick Saban's success at Alabama is unmatched but in "second-place" is Clemson's Dabo Swinney. He has led Clemson to 10-plus wins in 10 consecutive seasons and the Tigers have made the 'Final 4' in the last six CFP, winning national titles in 2016 and 2018. Clemson is the ONLY team the in the country to make the playoff each of the last six years. This will be Clemson's first game in years without the record-setting tandem of QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne, both of whom were selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first round of the NFL draft last spring. However, don't 'cry' for the Tigers. There are NO worries about DJ Uiagalelei taking over at QB. Filling in for Lawrence last season, he passed for 342 yards in his first career start against BC and then followed that by passing for 439 yards at Notre Dame (most passing yards ND has ever allowed to an opposing QB). 5 TDs and zero INTs in 117 attempts for the season. Clemson has a crowded RB situation with senior Lyn-J Dixon the most experienced of the bunch. However, true freshmen Will Shipley and Phil Mafah were so impressive in fall camp that they could see considerable playing time. As for Clemson's defense, it returns NINE of 11 starters and boasts one of the most imposing front lines in the country. Georgia's defensive front is expected to rank among the nation's best. The Bulldogs led the country in rushing defense last year after finishing among the national leaders in that category in 2019. However, Georgia's defensive secondary will be breaking in three new starters. Much is being made of JT Daniels at QB for Georgia. He started the final four games last season and threw for 1,231 yards (67.2%) with 10 TDs and 2 INTs. However, his regular season wins came over Miss St, South Carolina and Missouri (combined regular season record of 10-20). Georgia did beat Cincy in Peach Bowl 24-21 but needed to outscore them 14-0 in the 4th-quarter. The game-winner came on a 53-yard FG with THREE seconds left! Here's a great quote by an opposing coach about Georgia. "The Bulldogs are consistent and talented but are still figuring out how to become elite." Kirby Smart is in his 6th season at Georgia, going 52-14. This just in! He's NO Dabo Swinney. Let's look at his last four years. 2017: won SEC champ game over Auburn but then suffered a heartbreaking 26-23 loss (OT) to Alabama in the national championship game. 2018: lost SEC champ game to Ala, blowing a 14-point lead. 2019: got routed 37-10 in SEC champ game by LSU. 2020: lost 41-24 at #2 Alabama as #3 team and then as #5 team, got crushed by Fla (#8) 44-28 in to biggest regular season meetings. Where's the team's "big game" win under Smart? Georgia has won SEVEN straight season openers but its last loss in a season opener came 2013. The school that beat them? You guessed it, Clemson. Smart and Georgia once again come up sort in a "Big Game!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +6 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on UTSA at 7:30 ET I say the Illini have a letdown here after their 30-22 upset victory to kick off the season at home over favored Wisconsin last Saturday (note: Illinois last beat Nebraska in back-to-back years in 1923-24). UTSA finished 7-5 last year and made it to a bowl game, ultimately falling 31-24 to Louisiana. Illinois finished 2-6 last year. Head coach Lovie Smith was fired after seven games (note: The Illini last posted a winning season in 2011!). But after their improbable 30-22 win over the Huskers, can anyone say "letdown" spot here? Illinois starting QB Brandon Peters left the game holding his left (non-throwing) shoulder after being sacked hard near the end of the first quarter. He was 3-of-4 passing for 35 yards. He did not return and was replaced by Artur Sitkowski, a sophomore transfer from Rutgers, who went 12-of-15 for 124 yards and two scores. Peters' status is up in the air for Saturday's game and I think it may be too much to expect that Sitkowski will match his effort vs Nebraska. The Road Runners have plenty of talent, and they've excelled in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last nine on the road. UTSA has a potent and underrated offense that returns most of its core group of players (a unit that averaged 415 yards and 28 PPG last year.) Sincere McCormick is a dominant RB that keeps defenses honest and the entire offensive line returns as well. Illinois gave up 232 years on the ground last week, which doesn't bode well facing this run-first Road Runners attack. With Maryland at home next, followed by a trip to Purdue, this is also a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. While I do in fact feel an outright upset is possible again on this field for a second straight week, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is UTSA. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -130 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET. Off back-to-back losses, including a humbling 15-4 setback here to the Cardinals in the opener of this current series, I like the Brewers to bounce back on Saturday. The Cardinals have been playing better of late, but I still think this is a matchup that favors the home side. And the price is nice too. St. Louis hands the ball to Kwang-Hyun Kim (6-6, 3.23 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Pirates on Sunday, allowing one run over four innings. He's thrown over five innings just twice over his last six appearances though. The home side counters with Adrian Houser (7-6, 3.69), who comes in off an outing to forget, allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. It was likely his worst start of the season (previous to that he'd conceded just one earned run over 16.2 innings.) Houser though has been at his best at home, posting a 4.41 ERA on the road, and a 2.99 ERA in friendly confines. The Cards have struggled in this spot for bettors as well recently, as they're 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30, and just 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. I like the revenge-minded home side to come in focused. Lay the price, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Maryland at 3:30 ET. Maryland's going to have its hands full today with a WVU defense that should be among the best in the Big 12. However, I think the Terps can match pace with the Mountaineers and come away with what some may call a surprising OUTRIGHT win.The problem for West Virginia is on the offensive side. QB Jarret Doege looked brilliant at times last season, but he was prone to making mistakes as well. Several of them, and all of the time. Maryland has a well-balanced offense, which isn't great for West Virginia either. Taulia Tagovailoa will be given the green light today for the home side and he has a slew of dangerous weapons around him (including tight ends Malik Jackson and Chigoziem Okonkwo) Last year was a difficult one for both teams. But I think that Maryland's ceiling to improve is huge, while WVU is poised for some minor regression on both sides of the ball. Opening Day and on its own field, I think Maryland wins the day but why not take the points? The play is Maryland. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-21 | Army +3 v. Georgia State | Top | 43-10 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Army at 12:00 ET. Georgia State opens the season at home against a tricky opponent. Clearly, with a spread like this, the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. I do as well. The Black Knights are not a powerhouse but under head coach Jeff Monken, Army has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). Army's option is always a challenge (finished fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game last year at 273 per) but Georgia State's strength on the defensive side of the ball is stopping the run (it ranked third in rushing defense last season.). The Panthers will need to deal with Army QB Tyhier Tyler, who had 578 rushing yards and five scores last year, all coming in the final seven games. Georgia State began its football program in 2010 and joined the SBC in 2013. The Panthers went 0-12 in 2013 and then 1-13 in 2014. However, the program has gotten things figured out, as the Panthers have played in FOUR bowls the last six seasons. That's likely bad news for the rest of the Sunbelt Conference moving forward. QB Cornelious Brown IV is back under center. He struggled with INTs last year, but he's expected to make big strides this year. These schools have only played one other time, with the Panthers winning 28-21 in 2019. However, that 2019 Army finished just 5-8, the school's LONE losing season in the past FIVE years! Georgia St has a VERY tough first month, as after this home game with Army, the Panthers have road games at No. 10 North Carolina on Sep 11 and at Auburn on Sep 25. I'm taking the points but expect an outright Army win, which means Georgia St will likely open 0-2 (maybe 1-3 in Sep). Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-21 | Astros -125 v. Padres | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 10:10 ET. The San Diego Padres play in the NL West and after losing 14 of their last 19 games find themselves a whopping 13 1/2-games behind the SF Giants and LA Dodgers, who are tied atop the division at 85-49. The Houston Astros won 100-plus games from 2017 through 2019, making it to two World Series (won in 2017). However, the Astros were just 29-31 in 2020 but made the expanded postseason field. Houston then shocked all by making it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, missing a THIRD World Series appearance in four seasons by ONE game. It's no surprise the 68-55 Astros lead the AL West here in 2021 but they arrived in San Diego coming off back-to-back shutout losses against the Seattle Mariners while seeing their division lead fall to 4 1/2 games over Oakland. The starting pitchers for Friday are Jose Urquidy (6-3, 3.38 ERA) for Houston and Jake Arrieta (5-12, 7.13 ERA). Urquidy has missed the last two months due to a shoulder injury and this marks his first major league outing since June 29. He figures to be on a pitch count but I agree with Astros manager Dusty Baker who said, "We missed Urquidy, he's one of the main guys on our pitching staff and it's great to have him back." As for Arrieta, it's NOT 2015, when he won the Cy Young in the NL for the Cubs in going 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He's been a sub-.500 pitcher since 2018. The Padres took a flier on Arrieta after he was released by the Chicago Cubs in mid-August. This marks the second start for his new team and the first didn't go well, as he allowed five ERs over 3.1 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Colorado Rockies on Aug 18. He exited that game with a mild left hamstring strain and is now deemed ready to return. A huge part of San Diego's fall from being 17 games over .500 on Aug 10 to 81-73 (eight games over .500) is suspect starting pitching. Right now, Arrieta is a 'poster boy' for a suspect starting pitcher. Arrieta should provide the Houston bats a PERFECT opportunity to 'wake up,' coming off back-to-back shutouts. BETTER UP! Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-21 | Boise State v. Central Florida -4 | Top | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 292 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF Season-Opener is on UCF at 7:00 ET. |
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09-02-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Division Total of the Year (AL Central) is on Cle/KC at 8:10 ET. Kansas City has lost the first two games of this series, and three games overall coming into the Thursday finale. The Indians have been playing much better of late, as they've won seven of their last ten, including three in a row. Both teams are hungry for victories and any sort of positive spin they can find despite not being in contention. The Royals hand the ball to the volatile Mike Minor (8-11, 5.30 ERA), who has looked a bit better of late, but who is still just 4-6 with a 5.32 ERA at home this season. The Indians counter with Triston McKenzie (3-5, 4.83), who returns from a short stint on the IL. McKenzie has actually been great over his last two starts, but immediate regression after the time off is imminent in my opinion (note that he's 2-4 with a ballooned 5.24 ERA on the road this season as well.) The recent form of starting pitchers is an important factor I always take into account when playing an Over/Under and while these two teams have struggled with offensive consistency this year, I do not trust either of these starters this evening. With each making an expected "early exit," the play here is definitely on the over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-01-21 | Red Sox -106 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. I like Boston to bounce back here after three straight losses, including the first two games of this series. The hungry visiting side hands the ball to ace Chris Sale (3-0, 2.35 ERA), who gave up two runs and struck out eight over six innings in a win over the Twins last week. To go along with his perfect record and shiny ERA, Sale also owns an elite 1.04 WHIP and 21/3 K/W over 15.1 innings of work. Tampa counters with Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 3.46 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Phillies on Tuesday, allowing one run and striking out one over five innings. Hard to get a firm read on the rookie, as the sample size is just too small. One think for sure, his 5.5 K/9 isn't turning any heads. One of these teams has overperformed considering all of the injuries it's gone through. The other is coming off three straight losses and has one of the best starting pitchers in the World on the mound tonight All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. The play is Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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09-01-21 | Rockies -130 v. Rangers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Col Rockies at 2:05 ET. Colorado has lost the first two games of this series, but I expect it to bounce back in the finale with what I feel to be the superior starting pitcher on the hill for it. The Rockies hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (5-6, 4.17 ERA), who is coming off a great win over the Dodgers on Friday, allowing two runs and no walks while striking out seven over six innings in the victory. Freeland was a mess to start the season, posting a 9.58 ERA over his first five starts. He's lowered it to 4.17 after Friday's super result and I say there's no reason not to think that the veteran can keep the progression rolling strong here in this favorable matchup. After all, the Rockies have won his last SEVEN starts. The home side counters with Kohei Arihara (2-3, 6.59), who has been activated off the IL by the Rangers to make his first start since early May. The bottom line here is, I don't truest Arihara whatsoever, while Freeland has proven that he's turned the corner with his form many weeks ago. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is Colorado. Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-21 | Braves +167 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Grand Slam is on the Atl Braves at 10:10 ET. The Braves are in desperate need of a victory. They've been trading wins and losses over their last five games. They're off a 5-3 loss here last night in this series opener and while it won't be easy, I do think they'll bounce back here and deliver the goods on Tuesday night. Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.02 ERA) has been superb for the Dodgers. He has to be considered for the NL Cy Young award at this point. Buehler dominated the Braves in last year's NLCS, holding them to one run over 11 innings. Buehler is fantastic, but I expect the Braves' Charlie Morton (12-5, 3.60) to match his counterpart's effort inning for inning tonight. And in a scenario like that, I believe that the value swings to the hungry underdog. Morton gave up four runs over four innings to the Yanks in his last outing, but previous to that he'd posted a tiny 2.63 ERA over 48 innings of work. Look for Atlanta to rally here. It's interesting to note that the Braves are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two runs or greater road loss to an opponent. I believe the hungrier, revenge-minded visiting side is the correct call here. Play on Atlanta. Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-21 | Cubs +150 v. Twins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 150 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
My 8* play is on the Chi Cubs at 8:10 ET. Neither team will be in the playoffs. I think that the home side is vastly over-priced here though, which swings the value to the visiting side. The Cubs lost two of three at the White Sox most recently, while Minnesota held on for a 3-2 victory here at home against the Tigers in a one-game make-up scenario. Chicago hands the ball to Zach Davies (6-10, 5.00 ERA), who gave up two runs over five innings in the first game of a double-header against the Rockies last week. Admittedly, Davies hasn't been at his best of late. His last start though was a big step in the right direction. John Gant (4-8, 4.00) makes his third start for the Twins since coming over from St. Louis. Minnesota's relievers though rank bottom seven in ERA, hits allowed, runs allowed, home runs allowed and batting average. Chicago isn't much better, but I like the way this one sets up for Davies and I think the veteran can build off his last performance. Finally, note that the Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine in playing a home team with a winning percentage of .400 or less. The play is Chicago. Good luck...Larry |
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08-30-21 | Brewers v. Giants +131 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET. The Giants are a rare underdog at home here, and I am ready to take advantage. Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.73 ERA), gets the nod for the home side. San Francisco has the best overall record at 84-46, the best home record at 42-19 and No. 1 overall ML record at +$2920. Note that this is just the second career start for Corbin Burnes (8-4, 2.30) vs SFG, while Cueto's made 23 career starts vs Mil (11-4, 3.05 ERA and teams are 17-6 in those outings.) Burnes has been great, but he's coming off a really mediocre outing against the Reds on Tuesday, allowing four runs off seven hits and three walks over five innings. Was that a sign of things to come? Cueto has been much better at home than on the road (6-3, 3.10, compared to 1-3, 4.49) and I expect him to at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning. Finally, note that the Giants are 7-1 in their last eight as a home dog in the +115 to +135 range. Good value here on the undervalued home side. The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry |
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08-30-21 | Red Sox +125 v. Rays | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Division Dominator (AL East) is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. The Rays continue to defy the odds, play sound and logical baseball and simply find ways to win on an almost nightly basis. This is a starting pitching matchup that favors the visiting side though, and I believe it'll find a way to take advantage. Nick Pivetta has faced Tampa Bay three times this year (16.1 IP / 3 ERs / 1.65 ERA). Pivetta (9-6, 4.57), gave up four runs with five strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the Twins in his last outing. He's been at his best on the road though, going 5-4 with a 3.59 ERA. The home side counters with Luis Patino (3-3, 4.53), who has been solid in his rookie year. Patino has been good at home, but I still think it's significant to note that he's just 1-3 with a ballooned 6.19 ERA in all night games. The Rays have a comfortable lead, while the Red Sox are fighting tooth and nail for a Wildcard spot. I say that Pivetta is the correct call here in a contest what will for sure have a "playoff like" atmosphere around it. The play is Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-21 | Yankees -142 v. A's | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Yankees at 7:08 ET. After winning 13 in a row, the Yanks finally fell 3-2 in Oakland last night. With what I believe to be the superior starting pitcher on the hill in the night-cap finale on Sunday, I look for New York to bounce back comfortably. The A's can't afford to lose any ground, but they've been consistently inconsistent over the last three weeks. Expect this scuffling trend to continue tonight. The Yankees hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (5-5, 3.69 ERA), who allowed one run over five innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Montgomery enters this one on top form, as he's now conceded just five runs over his last 25.1 innings of work, posting a tiny 1.78 ERA in that span. Oakland counters with Paul Blackburn (0-1, 4.09), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Monday. I definitely like Montgomery in this starting pitching matchup. Also, note that the Yankees are 13-3 in their last 16 on the road still. This is just Blackburn's third MLB appearance this season, so I say he's in well over his head today. Lay the price, the play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-21 | Patriots v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the NY Giants at 6:00 ET. The Patriots are 2-0. They've looked good in both games. Both Cam Newton and Mac Jones dominated in New England's 35-0 destruction of the Eagles in Week 2. Newton had 103 yards on 8 of 9 passing, while Jones had 146 yards on 13 of 19 passing. I don't expect Bill Belichick to keep the foot on the gas in this now meaningless Week 3 NFL preseason contest. The Patriots can simply go through the motions here and get ready for their Week 1 matchup at home against the Dolphins (it's interesting to note that the Pats will play their final Week 17 game in Miami to finish out the regular season.) The Giants are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. They lost 12-7 at home to the Jets in Week 1, before then falling 17-13 at Cleveland last weekend. I say this one just means more to New York. The Giants are coming off a miserable 2020/21 campaign and are looking for any tiny positive thing they can before heading into the regular season. In the setback to the Browns, Brian Lewerke threw for 108 yards, a TD, and an INT on 11 of 19 passing while third-stringer Mike Glennon had 86 passing yards on 10 of 13 passing. Does it matter that New England is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six as a favorite? How about the fact that New York is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog? It certainly doesn't hurt! Either way, look for the home side to take this one much more seriously and to walk away with at least the ATS cover. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-21 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 35 | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Total of the Month is on Mia/Cin Over at 4:00 ET. The Bengals are 1-1 SU in the preseason. They're 2-0 ATS. They won at Tampa Bay by a score of 19-14 in Week 1, and then lost 17-13 at Washington last week, covering with the five points they were afforded in that one. Both of those games stayed under the posted number as far as the total is concerned. With their only home preseason game today, I believe the Bengals open up the playbook today on offense with their backups, and wannabe's getting one last look. Miami is 1-1 SU and ATS. It lost 20-13 at Chicago in Week 1 but then rebounded with a convincing 37-17 victory at home over Atlanta last weekend. Suffice it to say, I believe the Fish are going to try and duplicate that performance here and to keep the positive momentum rolling into the regular season. I base a lot of my over/under selections on "situations." This one definitely sets up great as an offensive shootout in my opinion. I'll point out as well that Cincinnati has seen the total go over the posted number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 13 or less points in a SU road loss in its previous outing. In my opinion, both the situation and the trends point to this one flying over the number. Good luck...Larry |
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08-28-21 | Giants v. Braves -114 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Grand Slam is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Braves came from behind to squeak out a tight 6-5 win here last night the Giants, and I think they'll once again find a way to do that here on Saturday as well. San Francisco hands the ball to Logan Webb (7-3, 2.84 ERA), who gave up one run over six innings in a win over the A's on Sunday. Webb has been great. It's difficult to say too many negative things about him. It's interesting to note though, while he's 5-0 with a 1.72 ERA at home, he's a much more pedestrian 2-3 with 4.08 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Huascar Ynoa (4-3, 2.89), who gave up three runs off four this over six innings while also striking out nine in an unfortunate loss to the Yanks last weekend. Over his last 11.2 innings of work, Ynoa owns a sharp 13/2 K/W. Ynoa has also been at his best when throwing at home, as he's 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA away from friendly confines, but 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in Atlanta this season. The Braves have considerable ground to make up. This one means a lot more to the home side. I'm banking on ATL finding a way to deliver once it's all said and done. Good luck...Larry |
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08-28-21 | Brewers -144 v. Twins | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET. The Brewers have now lost two in a row after yesterday's 2-0 series opening loss here yesterday. I like Milwaukee to bounce back on Saturday though in what I feel is a significant starting pitching mismatch working in its favor. The Brewers hand the ball to Adrian Houser (7-5, 3.44 ERA), who gave up one run over four innings in a win over the Nationals on Sunday. Over his last four outings Houser has now conceded one earned run, which translates into a 0.54 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Charlie Barnes (0-3, 6.56), who was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Friday. Barnes now owns a poor 11/10 K/W over his first 23.1 innings of work, and I believe he'll have his hands full here with his revenge-minded Brewers side. As note, Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held scoreless. Get down as fast as you can on this one, as I anticipate this line to continue to move up until first pitch. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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08-28-21 | Reds v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner O/U is on Cin/Mia Over at 6:10 ET. While yesterday's total stayed under the number in the Reds' 6-0 victory, I expect a bit more of a slug-fest between these two NL foes on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Vladamir Gutierrez (9-4, 3.68 ERA), who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over these very Marlins last weekend. The rookie's on fire, but I believe he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. One possible concerning O/U ATS stat to keep in mind here today for Reds bettors, is that Miami has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent. Miami counters with Sandy Alcantara (7-12, 3.35), who lost to the Reds last Sunday despite allowing two runs over seven innings. He also had 11 strikeouts (note that he's 3-8 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games this year.) I don't mind either of these pitchers, but overall (situationally and from a trend-based view), this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring affair. Look for this one to sail over sooner, rather than later. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-28-21 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +4 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -102 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Week is on the Was FB Team at 6:00 ET. Washington is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in the preseason. Baltimore is 2-0 SU/ATS so far in the preseason. The Ravens have now won 19 straight pre-season games in a row. That's remarkable, but as the old saying goes, "all good things have to come to an end." I understand that John Harbaugh takes the preseason more seriously than other coaches. I get it. Clearly, he does with a 19 game winning streak on the line. But I don't think Harbaugh could care less about setting any preseason records. Tyler Huntley is expected to see most of the time for Baltimore under center in this one. Last week he had 187 yards and an INT. Washington has much more to work on than Harbaugh and the Ravens. The Football team is off a decent 17-13 win over the Bengals in Week 2 and I believe they'll be out to finish up the preseason strong. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to play with a chip on his shoulder, as the veteran finished for 96 yards. Taylor Heinicke had 80 yards passing, while RB Jaret Patterson had 71 rushing yards and a TD. I think Washington will be out to not only build on their win from last week, but to also snap the Ravens' preseason streak, and make sure they don't get the record here on their own field. Lastly, note that The Football Team is still 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Outright win? Definitely not out of the realm of possibility in my opinion. However, my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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08-27-21 | Yankees v. A's +133 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET. The Yankees keep winning. The A's keep losing ground. Oakland made it close, but it was "no cigar" in the end for the home side in yesterday's series opener, as the A's fell 6-5 to the "Evil Empire." Streaks, both winning and losing, don't last forever. I say today is the day that the Yanks take a mental step back. New York hands the ball to Gerrit Cole (12-6, 2.92 ERA), who went six scoreless against the Twins in his last outing. Overall, Cole has been sharp this season. I have a difficult time finding anything negative to say about him, so I've decided I won't bother trying. The bottom line is, I simply feel that Cole (and the Yanks), are now finally in the wrong spot at the wrong time. The home side counters with Sean Manaea (8-8, 3.77), who gave up two runs and struck out three over five innings in a no-decision to the league-leading Giants in his last outing. It's been a poor August for Manaea, but a decent season overall. He'll look to build off his last effort, note that he's 4-3 with a 3.61 ERA at home this year. I say the Yanks aren't as good as their current win streak would indicate, while the A's are much better than their current scuffling slide shows as well. I look for the hungry home side to dig deep and find a way to deliver in this important contest on Friday night. The play is Oakland. Good luck...Larry |
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08-27-21 | Steelers v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Car Panthers at 7:10 ET. It's going to be a different regular season. We now have 17 games in the regular season, while just the three in the preseason. This though will actually be the Steelers' fourth game. They played in the Hall of Fame Game, and so they come into this meaningless final preseason contest having already gone a perfect 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. They beat the Lions 26-20 last weekend but were unable to cover the seven-point spread. But regardless, I think that Mike Tomlin has seen enough. Look for Pittsburgh to just go through the motions here in Carolina this weekend. But for the Panthers, they could really use something positive before heading into the regular season after starting out the preseason by going 0-2 straight up and against the spread. This one simply means MORE to Matt Rhule and the home side. And in this meaningless Week 3 preseason NFL contest, I think that's going to be the difference-maker. Mason Rudolph looked pretty good against a poor Lions team last time out for the Steelers. He saw most of the time in that one, meaning that Dwayne Haskins will likely see most of the time today under center for Pittsburgh. On the other side of the field, the Panthers lost their second straight preseason game, falling 20-3 to Baltimore. Will Grier was efficient though, going 11 of 14 for 144 yards passing. Pittsburgh faded down the stretch there against the Lions last week as it allowed two meaningless touchdowns really late to let Detroit sneak in through the back door. And as I said off the top, I think it'll just go through the motions here as well today. There's nothing left to prove, to figure out, or to play for today for the visiting side. While as I've also outlined, this one sure does mean much more to the winless home side. Albeit winless in the preseason. That's my read in this one. I expect Carolina to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the short points. Good luck...Larry |
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08-27-21 | Reds -138 v. Marlins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Grand Slam is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. The Reds are very much in the hunt for the second Wildcard spot. Here's a favorable matchup which I think they can take advantage of. In this first game anyways. The visiting side hands the ball to Wade Miley (10-4, 2.88 ERA), while the home side counters with rookie Zach Thompson (2-5, 2.97). Cincinnati has won five of its last seven games. Miley is 2-2 with a 1.86 ERA in six career starts against Miami. The Reds have also gone a sharp 15-8 in all of Miley's starts this season. And at this time of year, his veteran knowledge is invaluable. The Marlins on the other hand have lost seven of Thompson's last eight starts. His ERA has been steadily climbing over the last three months. Miami will also be without center fielder Lewis Brinson tonight, who left yesterday's 7-5 win over the Nationals with a sprained left thumb. It's a perfect storm of factors working in favor of Miley and the Reds today. The price is great in my opinion considering all of the above situational and trend based stats working in favor of the visiting tonight. Lay the price, the play is the Reds. Good luck...Larry |
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08-26-21 | Yankees v. A's +101 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error "Best of the Best" is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET. The storyline heading into this one is that the Yanks are on fire. They've won 11 straight. Can anyone say "letdown" spot? New York has admittedly looked great since the All-Star break, but a late night West coast road game here against this now desperate A's team is not what the doctor ordered for the Yankees to keep the good times rolling in my opinion. For argument's sake, I think these starting pitchers are completely even. Jameson Taillon (8-4, 3.94 ERA) has been superb ever since he came over to New York. And James Kaprielian (7-4, 3.25) has been a consistent bright spot for Oakland all season long. It would not be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to step up here and dominate. This pick is a situational one for me. I think the desperate home side (which is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a home underdog in the +101 to +110 range) is the correct call. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is Oakland. Good luck...Larry |
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08-26-21 | White Sox -104 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Chi White Sox at 3:07 ET. Both teams need victories. Toronto won the opener of this four-game series by a score of 2-1. Chicago then took the second game by a score of 5-2. The Jays then rallied and held on for a 3-1 victory last night. These teams have been trading wins throughout this series and I expect that trend to continue here. The White Sox hand the ball to Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.38 ERA), who is off the ten-day IL and who threw a bullpen session earlier in the week. Rodon has to be feeling confident here, as he's 6-2 with a 2.21 ERA away from friendly confines this season. The home side counters with Hyun Jin Ryu (12-6, 3.54), who owns a 111/29 K/W over 140 innings of work this season. He's off a dominant win over the Tigers on Saturday, holding them scoreless over seven. These starters are a "wash" in my opinion. And in a scenario like that, I feel that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. Also note that the White Sox are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs. Look for Chicago to get back into the win column after yesterday's loss. Good luck...Larry |
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08-25-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +134 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* NL Rivalry Game of the Month is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET. The Padres have lost eight of ten, including two in a row. That includes a 5-2 loss here to the Dodgers in yesterday's series Opener. The Dodgers have won nine of their last ten. One of these teams enters Wednesday's contest feeling pretty good about itself. The other, not so much. I believe this one does finally set up well for the desperate Padres though. The defending champs hand the ball to Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.11 ERA), who gave up two runs over seven innings in a win over the Mets on Friday. Difficult to say anything negative at all about Buehler, so I won't bother. I just feel that San Diego starter Blake Snell (6-5, 4.82), will be able to match Buehler inning for inning. Snell is 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers already this year (and in 28 1/3 innings against them lifetime, he's posted a tiny 2.30 ERA.) Look for the revenge-minded and desperate Padres to finally deliver a quality victory (and at a great price!) The play is San Diego. Good luck...Larry |
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08-25-21 | Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner O/U is on Min/Bos Under at 7:10 ET. These team's played to a higher-scoring affair in Boston's 11-9 victory yesterday, but I expect much more of a "duel" here on Wednesday night. The Twins hand the ball to Bailey Ober (1-2, 4.38 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Indians on Tuesday. With his last start skipped over, Ober comes in extra fresh here and I say that matters. The home side counters with Nick Pivetta (9-6, 4.43), who is off an outing to forget against the Yankees, allowing four runs over just 1.2 innings last Wednesday. It was literally the shortest outing of his professional career. Previous to that dud, Pivetta had pitched back-to-back gems. I think the veteran will bounce back at home here in this favorable matchup. Finally, note that the Twins have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they conceded ten or more runs in. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-25-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -117 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET. I've played the White Sox over the first two games of this series. The Jays won the first game (so I lost with that one), while the Sox then bounced back with a 5-2 victory on Tuesday. In the finale of this AL series on Wednesday, I like the home side to bounce back and answer. The White Sox hand the ball to Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.77 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Rays on Friday, allowing two runs over seven innings. Giolito has been sharp since the All Star break, but I simply feel he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today vs. this revenge-minded Jays side. Toronto counters with Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.79), who gave up on e run and struck out 11 over eight innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Tigers on Friday. Over 145.1 innings of work the right-handers owns a sharp 178/36 K/W. I like Ray to come out with a chip on his shoulder here after getting a no-decision for his superb effort last time out. Toronto is 8-2 in its last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs. Expect this strong trend to continue on Wednesday. Great value here on the hungry Blue Jays. Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-21 | Yankees v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on the NYY/Atl Under at 7:20 ET. These teams played to a lower-scoring affair last night, and everything points to another tight affair this evening. New York hands the ball to Andrew Heaney, while Atlanta counters with Charlie Morton. Heaney (8-8, 5.51 ERA) is coming off his strongest outing yet for the Yanks out of five tries, allowing one run over seven innings in a victory over the Red Sox. Morton (12-4, 3.47), is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 11 career starts against New York. These teams have been under machines of late and I expect that trend to carry over for at least one more game. Morton has in fact allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. I think Heaney will continue his progression as well. Look for these two competent starters to throw into the latter frames and as a result, expect this total to once again stay under the posted number. Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-21 | White Sox +116 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-2 | Win | 116 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The 3rd pick in my STP is a 9* on the Chi White Sox at 7:07 ET. I had a play on Chicago, and while that one came up short, I believe the hungry White Sox will rally and find a way to bounce back here North of the border on Tuesday. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Cease (9-6, 4.06 ERA), who allowed three runs and struck out five over six innings on Thursday against the Athletics. He received a no-decision, but it was his third quality start in his las five outings. Over 130.2 innings of work, Cease has posted 170 K's and 53 walks. He'll be opposed by Jose Berrios (1-1, 3.86), who is also off a no-decision in his last trip to the hill, allowing three runs over five innings against the Nationals on Wednesday. So far he owns a 19/8 K/W over 21.1 innings since coming over from Minnesota. Despite the setback last night, the White Sox are still 9-4 in their last 13 on the road against Toronto in this building. There's no doubt that Berrios is tough, but Chicago is no stranger to his performances after he spent so long in the AL Central. I'm banking on Cease and the White Sox getting back into the winners circle here. Great value on the undervalued underdog. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-21 | Mariners +116 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 116 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Sea Mariners at 9:40 ET. This is an interesting series and matchup. Marco Gonzalez is flying "under the radar" here though, and while most of the public will likely back the home side Athletics at this price, it's my opinion that the value actually lies on the visiting side today. Oakland is now 3.5 games back of Houston in the West, while the Mariners sit three games back of the Athletics. Seattle has to be feeling confident it can make up ground with Gonzalez (5-5, 4.10 ERA) on the mound, as he's gone 2-0 with a minuscule 0.67 ERA in four August starts. He's unbeaten over his last seven trips to the hill, going 4-0 with a 1.87 ERA since early July. That included a home win over the A's in late July. He's 6-3 with a 3.77 ERA in 13 career appearances against Oakland. The A's counter with the volatile Paul Blackburn (0-1, 5.06), who is in the rotation out of necessity with Chris Bassitt now on the injured list. Blackburn is 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two career starts against Seattle. Oakland's bullpen was terrible over the weekend in losses in San Francisco. I say Seattle takes advantage. And with the clearly superior starter on the mound, there's no doubt in my mind that we're definitely getting great value on Seattle here. And that's the play, the Mariners. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:00 ET. After this, there's only one week left in the NFLX preseason. New Orleans is off a tough 17-14 Week 1 loss at Baltimore, but I think it'll rebound and give a bigger effort here in Week 2 at home. Jacksonsville fell 23-13 at home to Cleveland. Remember, Urban Meyer is the new head coach of the Jaguars. The Jags' defense looked shaky, allowing 319 passing yards to Cleveland. Last year Jacksonville conceded 264.4 yards passing per game, which ranked 24th in the league. Jacksonville rookie QB Trevor Lawrence was six of nine for 71 yards. The Saints can pin their loss on sloppy play last week, as they committed eight turnovers on offense. Last year the Saints averaged just 1.2 turnovers per game last year. New Orleans' QB Jameis Winston was 7 of 12 for 96 yards and a touchdown. I think New Orleans will clean up its play here though, and that'll be the differene in the end. Jacksonville has so many things to work on, that it's disorginaztion will lead to another poor collective effort. Look for the Saints' defense to take advantage at home and for New Orleans' more experienced offensive unit to do the rest. Lay the points, the play is New Orleans. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-21 | White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi White Sox at 7:07 ET. Both teams have been scuffling. Both teams are desperate for victories. Each has plenty of issues to work on. The bottom line for this pick though, is that I think we're getting great value here on Lance Lynn the veteran. Lynn (10-3, 2.26 ERA) was ejected from his latest outing against the A's on Wednesday. He gave up one run and struck out four over four innings. The umpires wanted to check his gear for foreign substances, and Lynn lost it and threw his gear out onto the field, which led to the ejection. It was the first such thing to ever happen to him. Note that Lynn is 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Alek Manoah (5-2, 3.34), who has been reinstated off the bereavement list. Manoah has been great in his rookie season, but will this off-field, real World distraction throw a monkey wrench into his current form/chemistry? As I say, I trust Lynn the veteran here. Lynn's throwing a chip on his shoulder as well after the most recent ejection. Manoah could still be mentally distracted here. Great value on Lynn and the hard-hitting White Sox on Monday night. Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-21 | Angels +128 v. Indians | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month is on the LA Angels at 7:10 ET. It's not the most exciting Sunday night matchup, but I really like the way this one sets up for the revenge-minded Angels, who will be eager to avoid the three-game series sweep. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Suarez (5-6, 3.88 ERA), who gave up two runs and struck out six over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Monday. Suarez has struggled of late, but he has to be feeling confident here, as note that he's 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA at home, while going 5-3 with a 3.07 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Cal Quantrill (3-2, 3.24), who gave up three runs off eight hits over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision to the Twins. Quantrill's been sharp. It's difficult to say anything negative about him. I'm not going to bother. I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. I believe that Suarez can match Qunatrill inning for innings, and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hungry and undervalued underdog. LA is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge back-to-back road losses against an opponent. Look for that strong trend to continue here. The play is the Angels. Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-21 | Giants +101 v. A's | Top | 2-1 | Win | 101 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle 4 the Bay' Part 2 is on the SF Giants at 4:07 ET. The Giants came from behind to knock off the Atheltics last night. Oakland won the first game of this cross state rivalry. However, I think this one does set up well for the visiting side, who I expect to get an early lead in this one, and then never look back. The visitors hand the ball to Logan Webb (7-3, 2.92 ERA), who is off a win over the Mets on Tuesday, going eight innings and allowing two runs and sriking out eight. He's now struck out at least eight over his last three starts and he owns a sharp 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in that span. The A's counter with Frankie Montas (9-9, 4.04), who gave up three runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Monday. Overall Montas has been good this year and starts like that have been few and far between. Note though that he's just 4-6 with a 4.42 ERA at home this season. I think Webb is the correct call here. Recent form is an important factor that I always take into consideration when judging starting pitching and in my opinion, Webb is going to get the job done here. Lay the short price, the play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-21 | White Sox +115 v. Rays | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Series 'Rubber Match' is on the Chi White Sox at 1:10 ET. The White Sox won 7-5 in extra innings in the opener of this series, before then falling here 8-4 yesterday. I like the way this one sets up for Reynaldo Lopez and the visiting side on Sunday afternoon though. Lopez (2-0, 1.08 ERA) has been fantastic in filling in for Carlos Rodon, who is out with injury. So far he's gone eight scoreless frames, allowing just two hits while striking out eight. He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Chris Archer (0-1, 6.23), who has gotten the call back to the big leagues after a stint on the injured list and couple re-hab starts with Triple-A Durham. Archer has been recalled out of necessity. The bottom line is I don't trust Archer at all, and he'll be under a "short leash" anyways. Considering all of the above information, I really do feel we're getting a great price here on Chicago. And that's the play! Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
My IL 10* Total of the Year is on Phi/SD Over at 8:40 ET. Both teams have been struggling to plate runs. The Phillies are coming in off a much-needed 4-3 win last night. That broke a four-game slide. Philadelphia has now seen the total go under in four straight and in nine of its last ten. San Diego is the one reeling now, as it's lost eight of ten, including four in a row. It's seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten, including in its last four losses. These are two talented hitting line-ups and I think that tonight's posted total is finally a little too low. And that's because both of these starting pitchers are in poor form right now. The Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.48 ERA), who is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA at home, and only 3-4 with a 5.59 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (8-8, 3.11), who was shelled for six earned runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona last weekend. The Padres are kicking themselves for not taking advantage of the ten walks allowed last night. They're clearly desperate now. Finally note, the Padres have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight unders in a row. Considering all of the above information, I do indeed feel this number is low. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Lions +6.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The 3rd pick of my STTP is a 10* on the Det Lions at 7:30 ET. The bottom line for this one is, I think this is a great overall situational play. I believe that after two straight wins to open up the NFLX preseason (Pittsburgh won in the Hall of Fame Game as well), that the Steelers are going to take the proverbial foot off the gas finally. Detroit has opened up the preseason by going 0-1. It fell 16-15 at home to the Bills last weekend. Detroit has plenty to work on in the preseason after the departure of main-stay QB Matt Stafford. The Lions actually scored 12 points in the fourth quarter last week and I think they can carry over that momentum from that final frame, to the opener of this one. Remember, this isn't a regular-season game. You can't use the same logic in this instance as you would normally handicap a regular season or playoff contest. I believe that it's foolish to judge a team based upon its form from the previous week in the preseason. Jared Goff threw for 56 yards on 7 of 9 passing and Tim Boyle had 38 yards on 8 of 15 through the air for the Lions last week. Dwayne Haskins saw the majority of the time under center last week for Pittsburgh, and he had 161 yards passing and a TD. I think he'll have his hands full today though with what I expect to be an aggressive Lions rush. I'm banking on the "hungrier" team with more to work on to at the very least, keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Detroit.Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Ravens v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
The 2nd pick of my STP is 9* on the Car Panthers at 7:00 ET. Outright win? Very possible. But in a contest which could very well be decided late, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Ravens beat the Saints in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, while the Panthers are looking to rebound after losing to the Colts. The Ravens somehow managed to win last week despite posting 308 yards of offense, while allowing 366. Trace McSorley had 86 passing yards and one interception while Tyler Huntley had 79 yards passing. Once again starting quarterback Lamar Jackson won't see any time. The Panthers looked pretty good through three quarter last week, but then blew it in the fourth. They posted 313 yards and allowed 427. P.J. Walker led the Panthers with 161 passing yards and one touchdown while Will Grier had 31 passing yards. Clearly the focus for the home side will be on the defensive end this week. Last week it allowed 24 first downs. But I think we'll indeed see a better effort here in Week 2 in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line is, this is the preseason. It's not the regular season or playoffs. Judging a team's form from the previous week (whether good or bad), isn't helpful. This one definitely means a lot more to Carolina. As I say, I think the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Jets v. Packers +2.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The 1st pick of my STP is a 9* on the GB Packers at 4:25 ET. The Jets are 1-0. The Packers are 0-1. I say that Green Bay is the "hungrier" dog in this fight and while I certainly wouldn't rule out an outright victory, my official call on this one will be to grab as many points as you can. The Jets are coming off a satisfying 12-7 win over the Giants. Mike White had 127 yards passing, while Zach Wilson threw for 63 yards. It was an awkward victory and I think they'll struggle again with consistency today, especially in this difficult road venue, facing a determined Green Bay side that's seeking its first win of the preseason. The Packers have a lot to work on for sure after their 26-7 loss to Houston. I had the Texans in that one. Jordan Love actually looked pretty good, finishing 12 of 17 for 122 yards and a touchdown. He left with an injury though. And then Kurt Benkert would go for 88 yards and an INT the rest of the way for the Packers. Both teams will be playing backups and wannabe's today. New York though is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine as a favorite. Give me the hungrier and more determined home side in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Giants -115 v. A's | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle 4 the Bay' is on the SF Giants at 4:07 ET. I had a play on Oakland last night, but I think the league-leading Giants will respond on Saturday. The visiting side hands the ball to Kevin Gausman (12-5, 2.40 ERA), who gave up three runs and posted seven strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Mets on Monday. It was his third straight victory. Gausman had a poor July (for his lofty standards), but he's rebounded in August with three straight wins, striking out 20 over 16 frames and conceding just five runs in that span (also note that he's 6-2 with a 1.56 ERA on the road.) The A's counter with Sean Manaea (8-8, 3.77), who has been terrible in August, going 0-2 with a ballooned 12.27 ERA over three starts. The current form of these starters makes San Francisco the correct call here in my opinion. I love Gausman in this matchup, the play is the Giants. Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | White Sox +123 v. Rays | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 1:10 ET. I had a play on the White Sox last night. I think they'll find a way to get the job done again here on Saturday afternoon. Chicago hands the ball to Dallas Keuchel (8-6, 4.48 ERA), gave up two runs and two walks and struck out two over five innings in a victory over the dangerous Athletics on Monday. It's been a grind for Keuchel in the second half, but this was a big step in the right direction. I think he carries that momentum over here. The home side counters with Luis Patino (2-3, 4.73), who gave up two runs and two hits to go along with five walks over just three innings in no-decision to the light-hitting Twins on Sunday. I think Keuchel is the correct call here. The Twins are also 7-3 in their last ten road games as an underdog in the +115 to +135 range. Great value here on the hungry visiting side. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-21 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team -4.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game Of the Year is the Washington Football Team at 8:00 ET. This line opened -3.5. Then it was announced that Joe Burrow was not going to be playing at all for the visiting Bengals and the line climbed a few points higher. Regardless of who is under center for the Bengals, I like Washington to not only win on Friday night but to win by a comfortable margin. The Bengals are primed for an immediate letdown as well after their big win over Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the preseason, holding on for the 19-14 victory. Backup QB Kyle Shurmur had 108 yards and an interception on 12 of 19 passing while Brandon Allen threw for 77 yards and a pick as well. Washington is off a loss in New England. It was in contention in the first half, but then it took the foot off the gas. I don't expect the same thing to happen here though at home. Steven Montez has 108 yards passing, a touchdown, and an interception in the setback, while Taylor Heinicke threw for 86 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick had 58 yards in his first game in a Washington uniform. Ron Rivera is known for taking the preseason more seriously than others, and in his first home game of the year with fans in the stands, I expect him to have his team fired up to perform. Expect this to translate into production on both sides of the field for the home side. Lay the points, the play is the Washington Football Team. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-21 | Angels +107 v. Indians | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The 2nd Pick of my STP is a 9* on the LA Angels at 7:10 ET. Cleveland is stumbling towards the finish line. LA though is now 62-61 and looking to build on a three-game win skein. These teams are moving in opposite directions. This is a starting pitching mismatch as well. The Angels hand the ball to Jaime Barria (2-1, 4.71 ERA), who is off a crummy outing against the Astros on Saturday, allowing three runs over three innings. He'll be feeling confident here though, as he faced Cleveland earlier in the season in relief, allowing one hit over four scoreless innings. Cleveland counters with confirmed gas-can Sam Hentges (1-4, 7.95), who allowed three runs over two innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Tigers on Saturday. LA has the momentum and the superior starter on the hill. In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is the Angels. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-21 | Tigers v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker's Error of the Month is on Det/Tor Under at 7:07 ET. Detroit has been crushing the ball of late. It's been in several high-scoring games lately, as it's seen the total go over the number in six of its last seven, including in yesterday's 13-10 setback at home to the Angels. The Jays will be eager to return to the winners circle after losing five of their last six. That includes back-to-back road games in Washington, falling 12-6 and 8-5. Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four in a row. But I expect a duel here in the opener of this one. The Tigers hand the ball to Tyler Alexander (2-2, 4.57 ERA), who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Indians last Friday. Despite the pedestrian outing, he's still posted a combined 3.77 ERA over his last three starts. But I do really like Robbie Ray. I'm not going to lay the large price on the home side, but I do expect Ray to have a big night. He's 9-5 with a 2.88 ERA this season. He most recently conceded two runs with eight strikeouts over seven innings against the Mariners. It was the southpaws fifth straight quality start. One O/U ATS trend worth mentioning sees that Jays having seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight overs in a row. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +3 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Eagles at 7:30 ET. The preseason has changed. There are now only three weeks being played. This is significant. Traditionally Week 3 of the preseason has been the "dress rehearsal" for the "real thing." That's the game in which the starters see most of the action. But with injuries on the rise, the preseason has been cut to just three games. What effect this will have on how or when starters will see action will differ moving forward. It's going to be a "game to game" thing. And it's going to be different from one team to the next, depending on just which areas they need to work on. Philadelphia looked great in the first half of its Week 1 matchup against the Steelers, as it went into the break with a 16-7 lead. The Eagles clearly took the foot off the gas in the second half though, getting outscored 17-0 the rest of the way. However, having back-to-back home games to open the preseason is not something that I believe the Eagles will take for granted here in Week 2, and before hitting the road in their finale. Polar opposite situation for the Patriots. They were down 7-6 at home to Washington in their preseason opener last weekend, before then outscoring The Football Team 16-6 in the second half. With that satisfying come from behind win in front of the home town crowd, I just can't help but feel the Patriots are primed for a major letdown here. Handicapping preseason NFL games from a "situational" standpoint is a great place to start. And for this pick, it's also where it's going to end. Regardless of who starts, from a situational standpoint, this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion and while the outright win certainly isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-21 | A's v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* AL Total of the Year is on Oak/CWS Over at 2:10 ET. Oakland is second in the AL West at 68-53. Houston is 70-50. After four straight losses, clearly the A's are now desperate to get back into the winners circle. I think this desperation is going to lead to some production at the plate in the finale of this four-game series. So far Chicago has taken the first three games, winning 5-2, 9-0 and 3-2. Both starters have been decent, but I think the overall situation will lead to a higher-scoring game here finally. The A's hand the ball to Cole Irvin (8-11, 3.52 ERA), who is starting to show some cracks in the armor, most recently allowing five runs off eight hits over five innings to the lowly Rangers on Friday. The rookie has likely exceeded expectations to this point, but there's no doubt he draws a difficult assignment in a tough road venue tonight. The home side counters with Dylan Cease (9-6, 4.04), who gave up three runs in a no-decision against the Yankees on Saturday. Cease will have his hands full against this hungry Oakland team though in my estimation, as note that the Athletics have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last nine after playing to three or more straight unders in a row. The overall situation points to this contest eclipsing the posted number as it gets into the latter frames. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +110 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET. I had a play on the Cardinals last night. They lost 2-0. This is a big series for both teams, but more so for St. Louis, which now sits 11 games back of the Brewers in the division. The Cardinals are gunning for a Wildcard spot and obviously won't be lacking for motivation today. I like the revenge-minded home side to dig deep here and find a way to deliver. The visitors go with Freddy Peralta (9-3, 2.26 ERA), who gave up two runs over five innings in the first game of a double-header against the Cubs. Hard to find any fault with Peralta, he's been "on point" all season. I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today. St. Louis counters with Jack Flaherty (9-1, 2.65), who gave up only two hits over six shutout innings in a win over the Royals on Friday. It was his first appearance since May 31st and he didn't look like he missed a single day. Over 68 innings this year, Flaherty now owns a 72/20 K/W. He's 4-0 with a 1.44 ERA at home. I like Flaherty and the revenge-minded, much "hungrier" home side. The play is St. Louis. Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-21 | Red Sox +102 v. Yankees | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:05 ET. Boston lost both games of the double-header here in New York yesterday, falling 5-3 and 2-0. Suffice it to say, I think the hungry visiting side will dig deep here and find a way to win on Wednesday. The Sox swept the Orioles at home previous to that. New York has won five in a row. A letdown does seem imminent at some point, especially with the lowly Twins coming to town for a four games series tomorrow. I think Boston has the superior starting pitcher on the hill as well. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (9-5, 4.20 ERA), who enters off a win over Baltimore in Friday, allowing one run over six innings. Over 124.1 innings of work he now owns a 1.25 WHIP and 139/52 K/W through 23 starts. He's also been great on the road so far, going 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA. He'll be opposed by the volatile Andrew Heaney (7-8, 5.78), who was shelled for seven runs over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Thursday. He actually received a no-decsion for his poor effort, despite also allowing three home runs. Finally, note that the Red Sox are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. I like the revenge-minded visiting side to deliver today. The play is Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-21 | Padres -117 v. Rockies | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the SD Padres at 3:10 ET. The Padres aren't playing well right now. They've lost six of their last ten, including the first two games of this series. Enough is enough! Neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but for a number of different reasons, I like San Diego to dig deep here, to avoid the three-game series sweep, and to finally get back on the winning track with a convincing effort. As I said, the starting pitching matchup leaves everything to be desired. San Diego hands the ball to the newly acquired Jake Arrieta (5-11, 6.88 ERA), while the home side counters with Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06). I give the slight nod to Arrieta here though, not only because it's his first start for his new team, but also because Gonzalez is making his first trip to the mound after being ont he COVID 19 list (is expected to make only 70 to 80 pitches today.) Arrieta was brought in out of necessity. He's here to just eat innings until Yu Darvish and others can return. However, this is a big opportunity for the veteran and his team will be ultra focussed to break its current slide as well. Considering all of the above information, I absolutely feel that the Padres could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this spot. Lay the short price, the play is San Diego. Good luck...Larry |
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08-17-21 | A's -112 v. White Sox | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oak A's at 8:10 ET. After losing three of its last four, including two in a row (including yesterday's series opener here by a score of 5-2), I like the A's to get back on track with their "ace" on the mound. The White Sox snapped a two-game skid with yesterday's win. They've been inconsistent of late though, with just two wins in their last six games. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Bassitt (12-3, 3.06 ERA), who went six scoreless in a win over the Indians on Thursday, striking out six. He's now worked into at least the sixth inning in eight of his last tne starts, a period in which he's posted an elite 62/12 K/W over 63.1 frames of work. Bassitt has been a beast on the road as well, going 8-0 with a 3.47 ERA. He'll be opposed by Reynaldo Lopez (1-0, 1.35), who makes his second turn through the rotation for the injured Carlos Rodon. He struck out four over three scoreless innings vs. the Twins last week. Last year he was 1-2 with an 8.39 ERA at home. I say regression is in order for Lopez tonight. All things considered, I actually believe that the A's should/could in fact be favored by a lot more in this spot. Great value on Oakland. Good luck...Larry |
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08-17-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +142 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Cards at 7:45 ET. This is a big series. This is a big opening game. These teams have split their season series to this point, but St. Louis sits ten games back of the first placed Brewers in the playoff race. Both teams have been playing really well lately as well. St. Louis was just 6-0 on its most current road trip through Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Beating up on the Royals and Pirates is one thing, but doing the same to the Brewers is quite another. Milwaukee has gone 6-1 in its last seven. As I say, clearly these teams are evenly matched right now. These starting pitchers are evenly matched too. Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.23 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors. He's given up one or zero runs in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. Burnes dominated the Cards in his lone start vs. them this season, but for his career he's a pedestrian 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in nine appearances, including six starts, against them. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.27) blanked the Pirates in his last start, striking out seven in the complete game effort. He's allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. He faced Milwaukee once this season as well and dominated, holding it to one run over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Wainwright though has 'owned' the Brewers throughout his career, going 18-11 with a 2.48 ERA in 45 appearances and 38 starts. St. Louis is the "hungrier" team today. It is also playing its best baseball of the season right now (note that the Cardinals have posted four or more runs in 11 consecutive games.) Give me the hungry home side in a slight upset on Tuesday night. Good luck...Larry |
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08-17-21 | Braves v. Marlins +117 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Division Dominator (NL East) is on the Mia Marlins at 7:10 ET. Atlanta's been playing well, but I think it finally has a letdown here. The Braves have won eight of ten and four in a row. That includes a 12-6 victory here in yesterday's series opener. Previous to yesterday's setback though, the Marlins had won four straight. Miami won't be in the playoffs, but it plays better at home and I think it offers great value to bounce back here and pull off the slight upset on Tuesday night. The Braves hand the ball to Huascar Ynoa (4-2, 3.02 ERA), who enters off the injured list to make this start. In in his final rehab start he struck out seven over 4.2 innings, but he also allowed three runs off four hits. The rookie has been better than expected for Atlanta. But he's coming off the injured list and a questionable re-hab start. He's also just 1-2 with a 4.69 ERA on the road. This one spells disaster for ATL bettors in my opinion. Because the Marlins counter with ace Sandy Alcantara (7-10, 3.52), who enters off a gem against the Padres on Wednesday, aloowing no runs over seven innings while striking out seven. Previous to that he got shelled for ten runs at Coors Field, but note that Alcantara owns a 2.60 ERA at home, compared to 4.43 on the road. The Marlins are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded ten or more runs in. I love Alcantara in this spot. The play is the Marlins. Good luck...Larry |
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08-16-21 | Padres -124 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the SD Padres at 8;40 ET. The Padres snapped a four-game slide with an 8-2 win at Arizona last night. San Diego can't afford to take the foot off the gas though, or look past any opponent. I say the Padres find a way to win here at Coors Field. The Padres hand the ball to Ryan Weathers (4-5, 4.72 ERA), who is off an outing to forget against the Marlins on Wednesday, allowing six runs (including three home runs) over 4.2 innings. The silver lining was that he struck out seven. Weathers has hit a tough stretch, but he draws a favorable opponent here (albeit in an unfavorable park.) One last thing about Weathers though is that he's 2-4 with a 6.61 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA on the road. And he'll be opposed by Antonio Senzatela (2-9, 4.71), who gave up three runs off nine hits over six innings in a loss to Houston on Wednesday. It was his ninth straight start in which he's conceded at least seven hits. This is an important series for the Padres, who are trying to catch the Giants and Dodgers, while also holding on to their current Wildcard spot. Colorado is just 1-5 in its last six in the underdog role. Expect that trend to continue here. I like San Diego to strike first in this series on Monday night. Good luck...Larry |
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08-16-21 | A's v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Situational Stunner is on Oak/CWS Under at 8:10 ET. Both teams are hungry for a victory. I say the opener of this series sets up as pitchers duel. The A's hand the ball to Frankie Montas (9-8, 3.98 ERA), who gave up two runs (one earned) with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Wednesday. It was his sixth straight quality start. Montas now owns a sharp 146/36 K/W over 131 innings of work and he's been at his best on the road, going 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Dallas Keuchel (7-6, 4.51), who gave up four runs over six innings in a loss to the Twins. Still, Keuchel has gone at least six innings in four of his last six outings and he's 4-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home this season. Five of the last seven between these clubs have indeed fallen under the number and as outlined here, I expect that low-scoring trend to carry over here in Game 1 of this series. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Sunday Night Total of the Month is on the LAD/NYM Over at 7:08 ET. The opener of this series flew well over the posted number in the Dodgers 6-5 victory. Yesterday's 2-1 win for LA went well under it. I believe that tonight's finale definitely sets up as a slug-fest though. The defending champs turn to Max Scherzer (9-4, 2.67 ERA), who had his last start cut short due to rain. He went three scoreless against the Phillies. Since coming over from Washingtno he's given up two earned runs over 10.1 innings. Scherzer is the man for sure, but this play is based upon the fact that I don't trust the Mets Carlos Carrasco. I'm not going to lay this price on the road favorite, but I do expect some runs to be scored here. Carrasco (0-0, 6.75) most recently was shelled for four runs off four hits over one inning in a rain shortened outing against the Nationals on Tuesday. He's 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA at home. The Mets won't go down without a fight though. I think they'll plate some runs. Finally note, the Mets have in fact seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in. This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-15-21 | Blue Jays -114 v. Mariners | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Signature 37-Club Play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 4:10 ET. Toronto has some work to do. It's 5-5 in its last ten. It's now lost three straight, including both games to open this series in Seattle. It's scorching in the Pacific Northwest right now, but the Jays' big bats have gone quiet. I say that ends today though. Toronto has the superior starting pitcher in this matchup and it's much more motivated to break out of this scuffling stretch. Considering these motivational factors working in its favor, I absolutely believe that Toronto is undervalued by the bookmakers in this spot, and that makes this pick a prime candidate for my 37 CLUB PLAY release. The Jays turn to Steven Matz (9-7, 4.28 ERA), who is off a loss in a double-header format to the Angels on Tuesday, allowing four runs (two earned) and striking out five over five innings. There were plenty of silver linings. It was a third straight start he's avoided giving up a home run and he's now posted a 3.45 ERA over his last six outings (one last thing to mention about Matz, is that he's excelled in all "day" games, going 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA, compared to 5-5 with a 5.20 ERA in all night contests.) He'll be opposed by Logan Gilbert (5-3, 4.05), who is off a no-decision to the Rangers on TUesday, allowing two runs over six innings. Gilbert did decently against a terrible Rangers' line-up, but he's a poor 1-2 with a 4.79 ERA at home this season. Gilbert's been OK. Not great. He's in the wrong place at the wrong time today for sure. Finally note, the Jays are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge two straight losses against an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Toronto. Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-21 | Blue Jays v. Mariners +138 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 138 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. I had a free play on the Mariners last night. Seattle managed to secure the 3-2 victory and now I think it'll find a way to deliver again on Saturday night. At first glance, this starting pitching matchup looks even. But the recent form of Seattle starter Yusei Kikuchi Hyun Jin Ryu (11-5, 3.62 ERA) is off a fortunate no-decision to th eRed Sox on Sunday, allowing seven runs off ten hits over three innings. Ryu has put together another solid campaign, but there's no doubt he's been regressing the last two months. He's posted a pedestrian 4.14 ERA since the start of the July, a stretch which has seen him pitch four superb games, and three terrible ones. Kikuchi (7-6, 3.73) has been solid all year as well. He's been hot since the All Star game. Most recently he went five scoreless and struck out six in an unfortunate no-decision to New York last weekend. Since the Mid-Summer classic he's posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP spanning 22 innings of work. Both teams are pushing for a playoff spot. I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked here either. Fantastic value here in my opinion on Kikuchi and the home side. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-21 | Chiefs v. 49ers OVER 37 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -134 | 109 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Total of the Week is on KC/SF Over at 8:30 ET. I don't expect to see two awesome offenses on the field of play in Week 1 of the regular season or anything, but more than anything, I don't see a lick of defense being played here today. The Chiefs finished 14-2 last year and lost in the Super Bowl. Most teams that lose in the Super Bowl, then go on to struggle the next season. That's almost assuredly not going to happen to Kansas City this season. That said, not many starters (if any?), will be starting today for either team. San Francisco went 6-10 last year. In the previous season it went 13-3. This is a big season for fifth year head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch. I don't think either team will be taking the preseason lightly. Both have plenty of things to work on on the offensive side of the ball and that's what I expect each to concentrate on in Week 1 of the preseason. This number is a little low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-21 | Texans +3 v. Packers | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* Week 1 AFC/NFC "GAME OF THE MONTH" is on the Hou Texans at 8:00 ET. The Houston Texans are coming off a four win season. Their starting QB DeShaun Watson is embroiled in an off-field controversy which will have a lasting effect on the organization moving forward. David Culley is the new head coach of Houston and he'll be eager to post a win here and to start a new narrative for the club. Houston has a decent stable of "backups." Watson isn't expected to play with Houston this year, so Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel will all see time in the preseason. The Packers have had to deal with plenty of off-field issues as well. Aaron Rodgers has finally decided to stay for at least one more year with the Packers, but he won't be seeing any time today. Instead it'll be Jordan Love and Kurt Benkert getting the snaps. The biggest weakness last year for Green Bay was on the defensive side. That'll be an issue again this season. But despite losing JJ Watt in FA, the Texans remain stout on that side of the ball, with veteran Vincent Taylor leading the way. Both teams have plenty of issues. If this was Week 1 of the regular season, I'd likely be backing the Packers in a blowout. But it's not Week 1 of the regular season, it's Week 1 of the preaseason. I think Houston will take this game much more seriously and while the outright is possible, in the end my official call is to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -122 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -122 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Grand Slam is on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET. The White Sox won in dramatic fashion in the bottom of the ninth in the Field Of Dreams Game over New York two nights ago, and I believe they'll carry that momentum over here. Jameson Taillon (7-4, 3.82 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees. He's coming off a good outing against the Royals, giving up one run over six innings. Taillon has been excellent over the last two months, posting a 1.25 ERA since the start of July. I'll point out though, while he's 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA in front of the home town crowd, he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.67 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Dylan Cease (9-6, 3.99), who gave up three runs over five innings, while striking out ten in a win over the Cubs in his last outing. Cease has been locked in since the All Star break, posting 38 strikeouts over his last 32.2 innings of work. And there's no question at all that he's been better at home than on the road, going 4-4 with a 5.89 ERA away from friendly confines, and 5-2 with a 2.21 ERA here in Chicago. I like Cease to continue his progression here and for Chicago to build off its big Field Of Dreams victory. Lay the short price, the play is Chicago. Good luck...Larry |
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08-13-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
The 3rd pick of my STP is a 9* on SD/Arz Under at 9:40 ET. Arizona won here 12-3 last night, but I expect a much lower-scoring "duel" here on Friday. The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (6-4, 4.86 ERA), who enters off a gem against these very D-Back, holding them scoreless over seven innings. He also had 13 strikeouts. The former Cy Young winner has now won both his August starts, allowing a single run over 12 innings of work. The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (6-7, 4.42), who iss off a loss to these very Padres on Sunday, allowing two runs with five strikeouts over six innings. Since returning from injury in mid July, the veteran has gone 2-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 25 K's over 32 innings. And the icing on the cake for me today is that San Diego has seen the total dip under the posted number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it conceded ten or more runs in. This number is a little high in my estimation, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-13-21 | Cardinals -132 v. Royals | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the StL Cardinals at 8:10 ET. St. Louis has won five of its last six, including three in a row. I say it keeps the momentum rolling here in this favorable matchup. Kansas City is just 2-4 in its last six, and it's coming off a 5-2 loss here against the Yanks in its most recent action. The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (8-1, 2.90 ERA), who has finally been cleared to return to action after straining his oblique in late May. He has to be feeling confident here, as he's 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three career outings against the hapless Royals. Mike Minor (8-10, 5.39) counters for KC. He's coming off a loss to these very Cardinals in St. Louis last week, allowing four runs off seven hits over five innings. Minor is 2-3 with a ballooned 6.11 ERA lifetime against the Cardinals. KC is just 15-37 in its last 53 home games agaisnt St. Louis, while the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five on the road. I think a rested Flaherty is the correct call here. Lay the price, the play is St. Louis. Good luck...Larry |
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08-13-21 | Bills v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -114 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Det Lions at 7:00 ET. The Bills are predicted to be a Top 5 team. However, this Week 1 Preseason game definitely "means" more to the Lions in my estimation. Remember, in this abbreviated preseason, starters will see even less time. And the time that backups and wannabe's DO have, will be even more precious. Buffalo is an exciting team. I'm excited for "Bills Mafia." QB Josh Allen just signed a huge contract. Overall last season the Bills averaged 31.3 PPG, while allowing 23.4. The Lions have a new head coach and a new QB under center. If this was Week 1 of the regular season, I'd likely be on the Bills in a blowout. But with almost their entire starting line-up resolved, Buffalo doesn't have a lot to work on the pre-season. David Blough and Tim Boyle are backing up Jared Goff in Detroit, and they'll be in a fight for that No. 2 spot throughout the preseason. The Lions averaged only 23.4 PPG, while allowing 32.4 last year, a big reason why there have been so many changes in the offseason. Look for the more determined home side to earn its first victory for its new coach. The play is the Lions. Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-21 | Blue Jays -123 v. Angels | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* AL Game of the Month is on the Tor Blue Jays at 9:38 ET. This is the fourth game of a four-game set. The Blue Jays bats are hot right now and I think that trend will continue here. Toronto lost the first game 6-3, but it's since bounced back to win the next two, 4-0 and 10-2 yesterday. Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.23 ERA) allowed one run and struck out six in a no-decision to the Red Sox in his last outing. He's allowed just two walks over his last four starts. He's also allowed just one run over his last three outings. He'll be opposed by Shohei Ohtani (6-1, 2.93) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Rangers on Wednesday. These starters are a "wash." Ohtani simply doesn't have an advantage over Berrios here, who enters on top form. This one comes down to these line-ups, and Toronto's bats have once again woken up. I like Berrios to easily match Ohtani and for the Jays' sluggers to do the rest. Lay the short price with confidence, the play is Toronto. Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-21 | Steelers +1 v. Eagles | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* NFLX Rivalry Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 7:30 ET. I like the Steelers to build off their Hall Of Fame Game victory. They beat the Cowboys by a score of 16-3. In this abbreviated pre-season, the backups and wannabes have even less time to impress, and any tiny advantages these players have is signficant. With one game under their belts, the Steelers are the savvy move here on Thursday in my opinion. The Eagles have a new head coach in Nick Siranni, and second-year QB Jalen Hurts is now the man under center with Carson Wentz having departed for the Colts. The Steelers' offense was shaky in the HOF Game, but the defense sure looked sharp. Mason Rudolph is fighting for a spot behind Big Ben, and will be in a constant competion with Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs. The defense forced three turnovers and had four sacks. Joe Flacco and Nick Mullins are going to see the majority of the snaps for the Eagles today. Suffice it to say, I trust neither against this opportunistic Steelers defensive unit. Yes, Siranni would LOVE to win his "first" game as head coach for his new team. But this is the preason. I say it's Mike Tomlin and the Steelers who are more organized and who will find a way to deliver on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-21 | Tigers +134 v. Orioles | Top | 6-4 | Win | 134 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Month is on the Det Tigers at 4:05 ET. Break out the brooms gentlemen, because the Tigers are out to sweep this road series in Baltimore this afternoon. I've been on the Tigers each of the last two games and I think this hot hitting line-up will once again get the job done, despite facing Orioles' ace John Means. Means (5-3, 2.79 ERA), gave up two runs off eight hits over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Rays on Friday. It's difficult to say anything negative about Means. However, it should definitely be noted that he's been much better on the road (4-2, 1.99 ERA), than at home (1-1, 4.50). Detroit counters with Matt Manning (2-5, 6.33), who gave up six runs over four innings in a 6-1 loss to the Indians on Friday. There were a copule of silver linings for the rookie though, as he kept the ball in the yard and didn't give up a walk. He won't be lacking for motivation, and he does catch a break here facing this weak O's line-up. Miguel Cabrera will be in the line-up for Detroit today. He's still seeking his 500th home run. Momentum is a very real, tangible factor in sports, and the Tigers enter with a TON of it this afternoon. Look for Detroit's hot hitting line-up to be the difference maker here. Great value on the "surging" Tigers. Good luck...Larry |
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08-11-21 | Tigers -113 v. Orioles | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 37 Club Play is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET. I had a play on the Tigers yesterday and they eventually pulled away for the victory. I like the way this one sets up for them as well. Now granted, Matt Harvey (6-10, 6.13 ERA) has lookeed much better of late, posting a 0.83 ERA over his last 22.1 innings of work. But does anyone think these sparkling numbers are sustainable? We're talking about Matt Harvey here. They're completely unrealistic and I think a hard crash is imminent here. And unfortuantely for Harvey, friendly confines is NOT what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as he's actually been better on the road than at home this year (is 4-4 with a 5.68 ERA on the road, and 2-6 with a 6.79 ERA at home.) Tarik Skubal will try to take advantage. Skubal (7-10, 4.32) has exceeded expectations in his rookie year. He's off a solid outing against the Red Sox, holding them scoreless over five innings. Dominating the Red Sox' line-up is one thing, and dominating the Orioles' line-up is quite another. Here's a much more manageable matchup for Skubal. Detroit is also 7-1 in its last eight against teams with a winning percentage under .400, while Baltimore is a woeful 18-37 in its 55 at home. I look for Detroit to maintain its momentum. Lay the short price, the play is the Tigers. Good luck...Larry |
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08-11-21 | Reds +100 v. Braves | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 7:20 ET. The Reds have now lost two in a row after winning five straight. The Braves have been playing better, as they've won seven of their last ten, including two in a row. And that includes yesterday's series opener here by a score of 3-2. Suffice it to say, I think that the hungrier Reds will find a way to bounce back here and to avoid a three-game slide at the same time. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley (9-4, 2.75 ERA0, who is off a 10-0 win over the Pirates, holding them scoreless over seven innings, striking out five. Miley enters on top form, having posted five quality starts out of his last six trips to the hill, to go along with a 2.06 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 24/16 K/W in that span. The Braves counter with Touki Toussaint (1-2, 4.43), who is off a no-decision to the Cardinals after allowing three runs over five innings. He's been adequate. Not great. I think Miley has a huge advantage here. The veteran isn't showing any signs of slowing down. In fact, he's gotten progressively stronger as the season has worn on. I believe this progression continues here in this favorable matchup. The play is Cincinnati. Good luck...Larry |
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08-11-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies +125 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Phillies eight game win streak came to a crashing halt in yesterday's 5-0 setback here to the Dodgers. Suffice it to say, I think the home side offers great value to bounce back here on Wednesday night. The defending champs hand the ball to David Price (4-1, 3.53 ERA), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Friday. Price has been solid in every respect. It's still a small sample size though, and there's no doubt he draws a tough opponent today in a tough road venue. And he draws a tough opponent in Kyle Gibson as well. Gibson (8-3, 2.79 ERA), who despite a sub-par 12/14 K/W over his last 18.2 innings, has still maintained a tiny 2.41 ERA in that span. Gibson has struggled against the Dodgers in the past. Many have. Price has done well against the Phillies in the past. Again, many have as well. That was then, and this is now. Gibson hasn't been perfect this season, but he's quietly putting together one of the best campaigns of his career. Price has so far been up to the task, but I believe that Gibson can match him inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I'll take the hungrier, and also revenge-minded home side at a price like this every time. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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08-10-21 | Tigers +100 v. Orioles | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* "Best Bet" Situational Stunner is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET. Neither team is anything to write home about. Each has looked better since the All Star break. Detroit's probably looked a bit better than Baltimore and this is a starting pitching matchup which I think favors it. I look for the hungry Tigers to indeed step up here and find a way to post a victory. The visitors hand the ball to Casey Mize (6-6, 3.57 ERA), who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to Boston on Wednesday. Previous to that he gave up one run over seven innings to these very Orioles. He's been solid on both the road and at home and I believe he'll easily outduel his counterpart this evening. Keegan Akin (0-5, 7.16) returns to the Orioles' rotation. Previous to being demoted he posted an 8.14 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over his final 48.2 innings with Baltimore. Akin's going to get lit up again here against this streaky Detroit hitting line-up in my estimation. In fact, I'd go so far as to call this the very definition of "great line value." The play is Detroit! Good luck...Larry |
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08-10-21 | Cardinals -120 v. Pirates | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the StL Cards at 7:05 ET. I like JA Happ (0-0, 3.60 ERA) to find a way to build off his last outing and post a victory here for his new team in this favorable matchup. Happ is off a no-decision to the Braves on Wednesday, giving up two runs and four strikeouts over five innings. It was a marked improvement over his final three starts for the Twins which saw him post a combined 11.25 ERA. Steven Brault (0-0, 2.25), gets the call for the Pirates. He gave up a run over four innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. It was his season debut. He'll be under a leash again today, and I simply don't trust Brault on the road, or this Pirates bullpen down the stretch. Pittsburgh has lost five in a row and is just 5-15 in its last 20. Finally, note that Brault is 1-2 with a 4.95 ERA in 12 appearances against the Cardinals, while Happ is 5-3 with a 2.63 ERA in 11 career starts against the Pirates. Lay the short price, but expect a decisive outcome. The play is St. Louis. Good luck...Larry |
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08-08-21 | Giants -103 v. Brewers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* 'Best Bet' Weekend Wipeout is on the SF Giants at 2:10 ET. The team with the best record in MLB will go for a series victory on the road today. I think the Giants offer great value to do just that after their 9-6 win here last night. San Fran hands the ball to Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.83 ERA), who gave up three runs and posted seven strikeouts over five innings in what turned out to be a loss to Arizona on Tuesay. Previous to that he held the Dodgers scoreles over six innings. Cueto wasn't at his best last time out, but note that he's definitely been his most consistent in all "day" games this year, going 5-3 with a 2.93 ERA (compared to 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA in all "night" contests.) The home side counters with Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.67), who has admittedly been on fire of late, posting a 1.31 ERA ove rhis last four appearances, but who I believe is in line for some regression finally today. San Francisco has won 35 of its 59 road games this year. It's been very comfortable away from friendly confines this season and I expect it to find a way to get the job done in the finale in Milwaukee this afternoon. Lay the short price, the play is the Giants. Good luck...Larry |
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08-08-21 | Mariners +125 v. Yankees | Top | 2-0 | Win | 125 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* AL Non-Division Game of the Month is on the Sea Mariners at 1:05 ET. Seattle is just 3-6 on its current ten-game road trip. This is the final game of that contest. New York has won the first three games of this series. It's never swept the Mariners in a four-game series though and I don't expect that trend to get broken today. I think the Yanks get caught looking ahead to their upcoming six-game road trip, starting in Kansas City tomorrow night. I also think that Seattle has the superior starting pitcher on the hill. Yusei Kikuchi (7-6, 3.89 ERA) has struggled against the Yanks in the past, but I still say he's the correct call here. He comes in on top form. He most recently allowed two runs over six innings in a win over the Rays. Over 120.1 innings this year he owns a sharp 129/40 K/W. He's also been at his best in "day" games (4-4 with a 4.97 ERA in night contests, compared to 3-2 with a 2.19 ERA in day games) and on the road (he's 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA at home and 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA on the road.) He'll be opposed by Luis Gil (1-0, 0.00) who remains in the rotation out of necessity. Gil's debut was a great one, as he went six shutout innings. It came against the Orioles though and I simply can't see the rookie duplicating those sparkling results. Gil could go on to become the next Jacob deGrom, but in my opinion the door is wide open here for some immediate regression. The Mariners are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge three straight losses to an opponent. I say New York has the letdown here and Seattle rallies in its final game of its ten-game swing. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-21 | Tigers +125 v. Indians | Top | 2-1 | Win | 125 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET. Detroit's been exchanging wins/losses over its last four games. Off a 6-1 loss here yesterday, I think this pattern will continue. Detroit hands the ball to Tyler Alexander (1-1, 4.77 ERA), who gave up two runs over four innings in a no-decision to Baltimore on Sunday. Over 54.2 innings of work he now owns a 45/14 K/W. He'll be opposed by Elijah Morgan (1-3, 6.75) who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Monday. Morgan's a rookie. Hard to know what you'll get from game to game. Note that he's 1-2 with an 8.94 ERA at home. Detroit has done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less runs in. I think Alexander is the correct call here between these two young starters. I look for Detroit to get the monkey off its back here and post a much-needed victory in this series. The play is the Tigers. Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -154 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM of the Month is on the Col Rockies at 8:10 ET. Colorado smashed the Fish 14-2 here last night. I expect another decisive victory this evening as well for the home side with what I believe to be the clear superior starting pitcher going for it. The Marlins hand the ball to Jesus Lazardo (3-4, 6.70 ERA), who is coming off a win over the Mets on Monday, allowing three runs over five innings. Luzardo has consistently been at his worst on the road this season though, going 1-2 with a ballooned 8.24 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Austin Gomber (8-6, 4.04), who gave up four runs over one inning in a loss to the Padres on Sunday. In his previous start against San Diego, he shut it out over eight frames. It was clearly his worst start of the season, or perhaps even his career. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Gomber of late, who is still 4-1 with a tiny 1.99 ERA at home. Gomber has excelled at Coors. I don't expect the same fate for Lazardo. Lay the price, expect a rout. Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Saturday "1st Pitch" is on Sea/NYY Over at 1:05 ET. August in New York usually means that baseballs are going to be leaving Yankee Stadium, but that's not been the case over the first two games of this series. The Yanks have won both, but each has been low-scoring. New York is playing its most consistent baseball of the season right now, having won eight of its last ten. Seattle had been playing decently for a stretch, but that's now in the rear-view mirror. The Mariners won't be in the playoffs, but clearly they'll be eager to snap a three-game slide and to avoid a third-straight loss in this series. I think M's rookie Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.75 ERA) has been superb this year, but he's definitely been susceptible on the road, as he owns a 2.69 ERA at home, compared to a 5.50 ERA on the road. Andrew Heaney (6-7, 5.42) counters for the Yanks. He most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a loss to the lowly Orioles on Monday. He'd go on to give a season-high four home runs in that contest, as Heaney has now been rocked for 20 across 20 starts. I definitely don't trust Heaney and I believe Flexen's road issues continue here as well. While the first two games have gone well under the posted number, I say the stage is set for some offensive fireworks between these AL opponents on Saturday afternoon. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-06-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Bos/Tor Over at 7:07 ET. Two AL East rivals square off on Friday night and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks. Nathan Eovaldi (9-6, 3.71 ERA) gets the nod for the Red Sox. He's been great overall this year for Boston, but he's starting to show some cracks in the armor, most recently allowing six runs over 5.1 innings in a setback to Tampa Bay. I think it's important to point out as well, while he's 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA at home, he's just 4-3 with a 4.68 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Alex Manoah (3-1, 2.47), who is off another strong outing, going seven scoreless in a win over the lowly Royals. It was his first start since July 9th. He has a sparkling 0.76 ERA over his last four outings. It's difficult to say anything negative whatsoever about Manoah, so I won't bother. I do think that regression is imminent and I also believe that he's just in the wrong place at the wrong time today. It's been a great overall season for the Red Sox, but they've now lost seven of their last ten. This is a big series for each club and I believe it'll be the offenses which garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. And that's my call, I think these starters get chased early and that'll ultimately help in driving this total over the number. Good luck...Larry |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Division Total of the Month (NL East) is on NYM/Phi Under at 7:05 ET. Two teams familiar with each other collide on Friday night and it features a couple of competent starting pitchers. I say Marcus Stroman of the Mets and Kyle Gibson of the Phillies battle deep into this one, which will ultimately help in driving this total under the posted number once it's all said and done. Stroman (7-10, 2.80 ERA) will be eager to return form here after giving up four runs over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. Over his last 44.2 innings of work, Stroman has conceded 22 runs. He has a respectable 1.14 WHIP and 101/28 K/W over 122.1 frames of work this season. Gibson (7-3, 2.86), is coming off a win over the Giants on Sunday, allowing two runs over seven innings and going on to strike out five. This was a big step in the right direction for Gibson after a scuffling stretch and I believe he can carry that momentum over here. This is a key weekend series for the Mets. The Phillies are on fire right now, seeking their sixth straight win. But I believe it'll be these starting pitchers which garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. I say this total is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-21 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month is on the Hou Astros (run-line) at 8:10 ET. I think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the much better price. So that's my official call on this one, taking the Astros on the runline option. The hapless Twins turns to Griffin Jax (1-1, 6.41 ERA) out of necessity after trading a few pieces out of the starting rotation recently. The sample size is small, but I say he's in well over his head here on the road against the the Playoff surging Astros. Houston counters with Framber Valdez (7-2, 3.01), who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out six over five innings in a win over the hard-hitting Giants on Friday. So far Valdez has been perfect at home this season as well, going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA. I like Valdez to go deep, and for Jax to get the hook early. I expect Houston to not only win today, but to do so by a significan margin. The play is Houston on the runline. Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* Hall of Fame Game play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:00 ET Neither starting QB will see any action today. The Cowboys were a complete mess on the offensive side of the ball without Dak Prescott in the line-up last year and I believe that's going to again be the case in the Hall Of Fame Game. Dallas will also be without WR Amari Cooper. Garrett Gilbert will be getting the start under center for Dallas tonight (also Ben DiNucci and Cooper Rush will see time.) We'll also see the backups and wannabe's under WR and RB. Ben Roethlisberger won't be under center tonight for the Steelers, meaning you'd better get ready for a healthy dose of Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins. What I do really like about Pittsburgh in this one though, is that it will be giving RB Najee Harris considerable touches throughout this game and entire preseason. This is the Hall of Fame Game. Pretty much anything can happen. That said, the key talent that's out on the Cowboys offense is significant and their defense, which was a weak point last season, is also a concern this year. Pittsburgh finished with the No. 3 defense last year. Rudolph has seen considerable time under center in the regular season and is probably the best QB on the field tonight. Give me the Steelers to cover the small number. Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
My 8* Getaway Day Total of the Week is on SFG/Arz Over at 3:40 ET. Obviously Alex Wood (9-3, 3.83 ERA), has been excellent for the Giants this year. He's a big reason that San Fran has the best record in baseball right now. But perhaps his early rosy numbers were just a little too sparkling, as he's already started to show some cracks in the armor, most recently allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Saturday, lucky to earn a no-decision. And I have no faith at all in Merrill Kelly (7-8, 4.38), who gave up four runs off eight hits over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. He's 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts vs. the Giants this year. Sluggers Kris Bryant is 5 for 8 with three doubles off him, while Buster Posey is 7 for 17 and a homer off Kelly. This one has over written all over it. The play is indeed the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-04-21 | Braves -114 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* NL Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 8:15 ET. I won with the Braves yesterday and I expect them to find a way to deliver here as well in what I believe to be another favorable starting pitching matchup. Atlanta hands the ball to Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.40 ERA), who gave up three runs and struck out six over four innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Thursday. Smyly wasn't at his best obviously, but he still sports a highly respectable 83/34 K/W over 92 innings this season (he's been at his best on the road too, going 5-2 with a 4.24 ERA.) The home side counters with JA Happ (5-6, 6.77), who make his season debut for the Cardinals tonight. Happ has been terrible. Somehow he kept a spot in the Twins' rotation and somehow he was traded to St. Louis. There's nothing positive to say about Happ this season, as he's struggled in every facet. I don't expect him to simply "throw a switch" and solve all his problems in St. Louis. Finally note, the Cards are just 1-5 in their last six vs. southpaws, while the Braves are 4-1 in their last five road contests vs. lefties. All things considered, a great price in my opinion. The play is Atlanta. Good luck...Larry |
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08-04-21 | Mets v. Marlins +152 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Division Dominator (AL East) is on the Mia Marlins at 7:10 ET. The Mets are floundering and overpriced in my opinion. I love the Marlins at home here. New York has lost seven of ten and three in a row, while Miami has won two in a row after a four-game slide. Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 2.25 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors. He most recently allowed one run off three hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Friday. Carrasco has so far been under a short leash. He'll likely see more time today. The home side counters with Zach Thompson (2-4, 2.33) who is also coming off a strong outing, allowing one run and striking out five over six innings. He was very unfortunate to receive a loss for his effort. Over 38.2 innings of work though Thompson now owns a sharp 41/14 K/W (he's been at his best at home too, going 2-2 with a 2.12 ERA.) Miami is 7-3 in its last ten in this series. I think it'll extend that run here. The correct call is Thompson in my opinion at this price. Carrasco has yet to be truly tested since his return from injury and I think he'll struggle in that role today. Great value play here on the Marlins. Good luck...Larry |
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08-03-21 | Braves -124 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* "Best Bet" Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 8:15 ET. The Braves been trading wins and losses over their last ten games and off a 2-1 setback to Milwaukee at home two nights ago, I expect this strong pattern to continue. St. Louis has been trading wins and losses over its last five games. Off a 7-3 win here two nights ago against Minnesota, all signs point to this pattern continuing as well. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried (7-7, 4.32 ERA), who is off an unfortunate loss after allowing two runs over seven innings to the Mets. He also struck out nine, which was a season high. Over 91.2 innings Fried owns a very respectable 94/32 K/W. He'll be opposed by Jon Lester (3-5, 5.02), who started off the season OK with the Nationals, but who makes his season debut here for the Cardinals struggling overall. He's been decent over his last two outings, but note he's still 0-4 with a 7.07 ERA on the road (true, technically this is a home game for Lester, but because it's just his first start here as a member of the Cards, I believe his road record should be taking into account in this first matchup.) St. Louis is also just 1-5 in its last six vs. southpaws, while Atlanta is 4-0 in its last four as a favorite. The Braves haven't throw in the towel and this is definitely a starting pitching matchup which works in their favor. Look for Atlanta to step up and take advantage. Lay the short price, the play is the Braves. Good luck...Larry |
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08-03-21 | Red Sox -130 v. Tigers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The first pick of my STP is a 9* on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. After taking two of three from the Yanks, the Red Sox enter having lost five in a row. That includes two straight to division rivals Toronto and three straight to division rival Tampa. Boston won't be lacking for motivation today. Detroit has been playing better over the the last month. It broke a two-game slide with a 6-2 win over Baltimore two nights ago, but I think it'll have its hands full here with this determined visiting side. Garrett Richards (6-6, 5.15 ERA), is out to turn things around after a poor stretch. He most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a loss to the Jays. In eight career appearances against the Tigers though, Richards is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA. He'll be opposed by Wily Peralta (3-2, 3.64), who was most recently shelled for five runs over his last 5 2/3's innings of work. He's also 0-0 with a 5.16 ERA in four career appearances against Boston. The Tigers ended a 17 games in 16 days stretch with a win, but with a day off, I think they have a classic letdown here. Look for Richards to continue his consistent play against the Tigers and for Boston to get back into the winners circle with a much-needed victory. Good luck...Larry |
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08-01-21 | Red Sox +133 v. Rays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* AL East Game of the Month is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:08 ET. Boston comes in hungry to break a four-game slide and to avoid the three-game series sweep here in Tampa. The Rays come in complacent after three straight victories and with the lowly Orioles coming to town tomorrow for a new series. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (8-4, 4.51 ERA), who gave up four runs and struck out six over five innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Monday. Pivetta hasn't been great or terrible over the last month, but pedestrian is probably the best word to describe his performance. That said, the second-year pro has been fantastic on the road this season, going 5-2 with a 3.22 ERA. The home side counters with Shane McClanahan (4-4, 3.93), who is off a loss to the Yankees on Tuesday, conceding three runs over six innings. With last night's win, the Rays have taken over the lead in the AL East by a half game. I think Pivetta can outduel his rookie counterpart here in this important game (also note that Boston is 7-2 in its last nine after a three games or longer losing streak.) For all the reasons listed above, I'm playing Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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08-01-21 | Astros v. Giants -106 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET. The Giants have been alternating wins and losses over their last five games, but I say that pattern gets broken today after their 8-6 win yesterday. Houston's three-game win skein is snapped and with a night off before a two-game set at the defending champs, this also sets up as classic letdown/look-ahead spot in my estimation. I like the league leading Giants to take advantage. The Astros hand the ball to rookie Luis Garcia (7-5, 3.19 ERA), who is starting to show some cracks in the armor of late, most recently conceding six runs over four innings to the Mariners. He was lucky to escape with a no-decision. While he's 4-3 with a 2.25 ERA at home, Garcia is just 3-2 with a 4.59 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Logan Webb (4-3, 3.36), who gave up one run to go along with five strikeouts over six innings, unlucky to earn a no-decision vs. the Dodgers on Tuesday. Webb owns a 70/22 K/W over 67 innings of work and he's 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA at home. Look for Webb to continue his red hot play at home and for Garcia to continue to regress in thid difficult road venue. The play is the Giants. Good luck...Larry |