Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's +125 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Oak A's at 3:37 ET. MLB 2020's expanded playoff field allowed the 32-28 Blue Jays to snap a three-year playoff drought but the Jays were eliminated 2-0 (lost 3-1 and 8-2) quickly by the Rays. Toronto has had to play its 'home games' at the teams spring training facility in Dunedin, Fl and currently sits at 15-14 as the Jays conclude this four-game series in Oakland. The A's began the current season 0-6 and after splitting their next two games, ripped off 13 consecutive wins to reach 14-7. The A's won the first two games of this four-game set with Toronto, before falling 9-4 on Wednesday. The A's are currently 19-13 (just 5-6 their last 11) but own MLB's best record at 19-13. The Blue Jays get their ace back on the mound when they try to gain a split of a four-game series against the Oakland Athletics on Thursday afternoon. Hyun Jin Ryu (1-2, 2.60 ERA) is scheduled to come off the injured list and get the start. He went on the IL on April 26 with a glute strain. This will be his sixth start of the season (team is 3-2), after he had a terrific first season with Toronto in 2020. He was 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 12 starts (Jays were 9-3). Mike Fiers (0-1, 4.50 ERA) started the season on the 10-day injured list with a lumbar strain. He was reinstated on April 26 and made his first start of 2021 last Friday, a 3-2 home loss to Baltimore. He allowed three runs, six hits and two walks in six innings. However, here's the bottom line. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 55 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-16 (.709) in those contests! That includes the team going 23-5 (.821) in his 28 home starts! What's more, the A's were 11-3 vs left-handers last season and have opened 9-3 against them in 2020. Ryu is a tough opponent but I'm 'barking' with this home dog. Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Month (NL) is on the Mil Brewers at 1:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2021 season having NOT made the postseason in the previous NINE years. The Phillies won their first four games but opened a four-game home series with the Brewers just 13-15 on the season. However, the Phillies have won each of the first three contests and are now 16-15, which finds them atop of the NL East (all other teams are sub-.500). The Brewers have made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons but with FOUR straight losses, have fallen to 17-14 and one game back of The St Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. Milwaukee looked to avoid the series sweep and a FIFTH straight loss with Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 1.80 ERA) on the mound. The Phillies will counter with Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.49 ERA). Woodruff allowed three ERs on Opening Day but has recorded five consecutive quality starts. He's pitched six-plus innings in each one with a 1.16 ERA and a 35-7 KW ratio. Zach Wheeler beat Atlanta 4-0 in his first start of 2021, allowing one hit over seven innings with a 10-0 KW ratio. However, he owns a 4.26 ERA over his last four starts, with the Phillies losing FOUR of the five. The Phillies have appeared in seven straight one-run games and that wears on a team. Plus, I love Woodruff over Wheeler. Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-21 | Knicks v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 9:10 ET. The New York Knicks are playing meaningful games in May for the first time in nearly a decade and at 37-28, are closing in on ending the third-longest playoff drought in the NBA (last playoff appearance was back in the 2012-13 season). The Knicks are currently 4th in the East, 1 1/2-games up on the No. 5 seed, 2 1/2-games up on the No. 6 seed and three games up on the No. 7 seed (seeds 7-10 are regulated to the "Play-In" tournament). The Knicks have won 12 of 13 as they visit Pepsi Center Wednesday night to take on the 43-22 Nuggets. Denver (the East's No. 4 seed) has clinched a top-six playoff seed in the West, meaning it will avoid having to take part in the play-in round. The Nuggets finished 13-3 in April, which was the best record in the NBA. PF Julius Randle (24.2-10.3-5.9) and SF Barrett (17.6 & 5.8) have starred all season for the Knicks. Randle has been spectacular of late, averaging 31 points in the Knicks' last 11 contests. A group of five players (averaging between 10.6-14.3 PPG) are 'flying under the radar.' Both PGs are healthy right now in Rose (14.3 & 4.1 APG) and Payton (11.1 & 3.4 APG). SGs Burks (12.5 & 4.4) and Quickly (11.6) plus SF Bullock (10.6 & 3.4) complete the group. No Denver Nugget has ever won league MVP honors but center Nikola Jokic just may change that. Jokic (26.3-10.9-8.5) has carried the Nuggets through some key injuries and as noted above, are guaranteed a playoff spot. Denver is just a half-game back of the third-seeded Clippers plus owns the tiebreaker over LA, as well. The Nuggets have continued to play well even after the loss of PG Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8), going 9-2 in his absence. With backup PG Monte Morris (10.1 & 3.2 APG) and now swingman Will Barton (12.7-4.0-3.2) out due to hamstring injuries, Campazzo has taken over the starting PG role and has averaged 8.9 & 5.6 APG in the 11 games without Murray. SF Porter was excellent in last year's bubble and is having a career season, averaging 18.9 & 7.5. He's scoring 20-plus points in 16 of his last 19 games and has averaged 27.3 PPG in his last seven. The acquisition of Aaron Gordon (10.5 & 4.8) from Orlando has worked great, as although he's not scoring as much as he did with the Magic he's been a "great fit," with Denver going 16-4 in his 20 games. The Nuggets routed the Knicks 114-89 back in January back in January but obviously, the Knicks are a different team now. That said, the Knicks' lone loss in their last 13 games came at home vs the Suns and it's hard to find many "quality" wins during their current surge. I guess wins over Dallas and the Lakers (without LBJ and A.D.) count? Lay the 'cheap' number. Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-21 | Tigers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Week is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. The Red Sox opened the season 0-3 but then won NINE in a row. Boston has cooled off since but the Red Sox take the field Wednesday 18-12 (lead the AL East by 2 1/2-games). The Tigers lost 98 games in both 2017 and 2018, then lost 114 games in 2019, before going 23-35 in 2020. The Tigers scored seven runs but lost 11-7 at Fenway last night (1st contest of a three-game series), giving them SIX straight losses and 11 of their last 12. Detroit checks in with a MLB-worst 8-22 record, including 4-13 on the road (only Colorado is worse at 2-11 away from Coors). Casey Mize (1-3, 5.06 ERA) gets the nod for Detroit and Martin Perez (0-2, 4.70 ERA) for Boston. Mize made his MLB debut in 2020 and has made 12 starts for Detroit since taking the mound for his start back on August 19th of 2020. He's 1-6 in those 12 starts (Tigers are 4-8), posting a 6.05 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. As for current form, the Tigers have lost his most recent three starts, as he's allowed 14 ERs in 15.2 innings for a 8.04 ERA. I've never much liked Perez, who is still looking for his first win at Fenway Park as a member of the Red Sox. However, he takes the mound tonight hoping to build off his last start, in which he held the Texas Rangers to two runs (one earned) on five hits over 5.2 innings but couldn't earn a win. Do I really trust Perez (NO!) but he's facing a Detroit team that ranks 30th (dead-last) in runs scored (2.87 RPG), in team batting (.197) and OPS (.599). Meanwhile, the struggling Mize faces a Boston lineup that's 4th in runs scored (4.97 RPG) plus first in team BA (.265) and OPS (.776). What's more, after Mize is gone, the Detroit bullpen owns MLB's worst ERA (6.66) and WHIP (1.68). Lay the 1 1/2-runs. Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-21 | Brewers -134 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the Mil Brewers at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2021 season having NOT made the postseason in the previous NINE years. The Phillies won their first four games of the current season but their back-to-back wins over the Brewers Monday and Tuesday only got the team back to .500 at 15-15. The "good news" for the Phils is that they play in the NL East, where they are the ONLY team in the division to not own a losing record. The Brewers have made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons but last night's loss was their THIRD in a row and at 17-13, have fallen a half-game back of the 17-12 StL Cardinals in the NL Central. The two teams continue their four-game series Wednesday night with Freddy Peralta (3-0, 2.25 ERA) taking the mound for the Brewers and Chase Anderson (1-3, 5.40 ERA) for the Phillies. This marks Peralta's fourth season with Milwaukee and after making 15 appearances but just ONE start for them in 202, he's FIVE straight starts after making a two-inning relief appearance on Opening Day. He owns an excellent 1.00 WHIP to go along with his 2.25 ERA this season plus has held opposing batters to a .146 BAA. He has a 39-11 KW ratio in his five starts with Milwaukee winning FOUR of the five. Anderson spent time with the Brewers and from 2017-2019 owned a 29-16 record. He's coming off a good start on April 30, going five innings and allowing just one ER in Philly's 2-1 home win over the Mets. However, over his first four starts of 2021, he allowed 12 ERs over a modest 16.2 innings (6.48 ERA), as the Brewers went 0-4 with Anderson taking the loss in three of the games. Pitching edge to Milwaukee in this one, as the Brewers snap their three-game slide and the Phillies fall back under .500. Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-21 | Mavs v. Heat -3 | Top | 127-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mia Heat at 8:10 ET. The Miami Heat shocked pretty much all with their run to the NBA Finals last season but the team's "encore performance" has been a struggle. The Dallas Mavericks snapped a three-year playoff drought by going 43-32 last season and led by Doncic, had high hopes for the 2020-21 season. As the season is in its final two weeks, both teams will at least qualify for the NBA's new "Play-In" tournament (No. 7-10 seeds) but neither team wants that! Dallas is currently 36-28 (No. 6 seed) and while it is just a half-game back of the No. 5 seed (LA Lakers), it is also just a half-game up on the No. 7 seed (Portland). ONE of those three teams will be regulated to "play-in" status. Miami is 35-30 (No. 6 seed) but just a half-game up on the No. 7 seed (Boston). Looking at the glass being "half full," Miami is also just two games back of the No. 4 seed (NY Knicks). If the Heat could catch and pass the Knicks, they could secure the home court edge in a first round series. Doncic (28.6-8.0-8.9) has been great all season but Porzingis (20.2 & 9.1) has missed FIVE of the last six games (he's missed a game on the season) and is listed as doubtful for Tuesday. Guard Tim Hardaway Jr. (16.0) also sat out Sunday with an ankle injury but is expected to play against the Heat. Powell has replaced Porzingis and he' NOT up to the task and while Dallas gets 'teased' every once in a while by Cauley-Stein's play, he's just NOT reliable. "It's eight games left," Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle said. "They're all very meaningful. Hopefully we'll get Tim back. We'll see where KP is and we'll head to Miami and look to play better." That just about sums it up. Miami's dealing with some injury issues as well, as Victor Oladipo (right knee) will miss his 14th consecutive game and shooting guard Tyler Herro (14.9-4.9-3.4 will miss his sixth in a row with a foot injury. However, Miami's current starting-five looks pretty good. Butler (21.3-7.0-7.2) and Ariza (8.9 & 4.6 in his 24 games with the Heat) start up front with center Adebayo (19.1-9.1-5.3). Nunn (14.3) and Robinson (13.0) are the starting guards, with veteran Dragic (13.0 & 4.5 APG) coming off the bench. Miami's won SEVEN of its last 10 and note that Tuesday's game is the first meeting between the Mavs and Heat since Dallas ended a SIX-game losing streak in the series back on Jan 1 with a 93-83 win, In that contest, Doncic scored 27 points with 15 rebounds and seven assists, while Butler missed all SIX of his shots and scored just two points. DON'T see that happening here. Miami has regained its defensive 'mojo' (now ranked 4th in points allowed per game) and I'm "all over" the Heat in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-21 | White Sox v. Reds +101 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. The Chicago White Sox went 35-25 in 2020, ending an 11-year postseason drought, while the Cincinnati Reds went 31-19 and also indeed a six-year postseason drought of their own. Neither team made it out of the wild card round and open a brief two-game series Tuesday in Cincinnati. The White Sox are 15-13 to start the current season and the Reds check in at 13-14. Both teams were off on Monday with the White Sox losing the rubber match of their three-game home series 5-0 to the Indians on Sunday, while the Reds won their rubber match of a three-game home series with the Cubs 13-12 in 10 innings (Reds had five HRs). More in a bit. Taking the mound tonight will be Chicago's Dylan Cease (1-0, 2.96 ERA) and Cincy's Jeff Hoffman (2-1, 3.33 ERA). Cease has shown glimpses of promise during his two-plus seasons in the majors and showed was at his VERY best this past Thursday during an 11-0 Chicago win rout in the nightcap of a seven-inning, doubleheader sweep of the Tigers. Cease allowed just three hits with nine strikeouts and no walks in matching a career high with those seven completed innings. However, let me point out that he had not gotten through the fifth inning in any of his previous FOUR starts in 2021. Hoffman spent his first five seasons with Colorado (68 appearances / 38 starts), going 10-16 with a 6.39 ERA but he' started very well in 2021 (see above). In particular, he is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three home starts in 2021. The Reds 'turned a corner' last season and I feel as if Hoffmann can become a solid member of the rotation now that he's away from Coors Field. 'Digging deeper' into this contest and I find that the White Sox went 14-0 (7.1 RPG) against left-handed starters in 2020 and have so far gone 5-1 (7.8 RPG) against lefties in 2021. However, that means Chicago is just 10-11 vs righties in 2021, averaging 4.1 RPG (that's 3 1/2 runs per game LESS!). As noted above, the Reds slugged five HRs and put up 13 runs Sunday at home. Cincy may be just a modest 9-6 at home but the Reds are averaging a whopping 7.8 RPG at home. At basically pick'em, the Reds are very UNDERVALUED in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-21 | Astros v. Yankees -115 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020 but snuck into the expanded playoff field. The Astros then went on a surge that didn't end until they lost Game 7 of the ALCS to the Rays The Yankees went 33-27 last season and if not for the expanded playoff field, would have missed the postseason. New York swept Cleveland 2-0 in the wild card round but then lost Game 5 of the ALDS to the Rays. The Yankees were on the "other side" of Houston's sign-stealing shenanigans in 2017, with the Astros continuing on to win their first World Series by beating the Los Angeles Dodgers. The teams were set to meet in New York in September, but the COVID-19 pandemic wiped away the original schedule and the clubs never met. This will be the teams' first meeting since that 2017 World Series. Both Houston and New York have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games, with the 15-13 Astros finding themselves second in the NL West (two games back of the A's) and the Yankees are 14-14 (2 1/2-games back of the Red Sox in the AL East / 4th of five teams). The starting pitching matchup is Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.44 ERA) for Houston and Domingo German (2-2, 4.05 ERA). The Astros are 5-1 in Greinke's six starts in 2021 but he's coming off his shortest outing of the season last Wednesday when he took a no-decision against the Seattle Mariners, allowing four runs on four hits in four innings. He has a 4.56 ER in his last four starts and is 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 14 career starts vs the Yankees (teams are 6-8). German was 18-4 for the Yankees when he was placed on administrative leave by MLB pending an investigation of suspected domestic violence on September 19, 2019. It was confirmed on Sep 25 that he would not be eligible to participate in any baseball action for the remainder of 2019, including the postseason, German made just ONE start in 2020. German. He takes the mound for the fifth time in 20212 tonight. He lost his first two outings (12 hits and seven ERs allowed in seven innings for 9.00 ERA) but he's 2-0 in his last two starts, allowing just two ERs over 13 innings for a 1.38 ERA. In fact, he enters Tuesday with a 12-inning scoreless streak. I'm not saying German is the same pitcher who had a MLB-best .818 winning percentage back in 2019 but his last two starts seem to point to him rounding back into form. Expect more than a few 'Bronx Cheers' from the Yankee-faithful (limited capacity) and for German to win his individual 'battle' vs Greinke. Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-21 | Mets v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Pitching Mismatch is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET. Note: This is an "action" play. See below for more details. The NY Mets surprised all by reaching the 2015 World Series (ended an eight-season playoff drought) but lost 4-1 to the Royals. The Mets made one-game wild card appearance in the 2016 postseason but opened the 2021 season off four straight non-playoff seasons, including going just 26-34 in 2020. The Mets lost Friday at Philadelphia but earned one-run wins Saturday and Sunday to even their record at 11-11. The 2021 NL East resembles the NFC East from the NFL's most recent season (Washington won the division with a 7-9 record), so New York's 11-11 record puts them atop the division (Nats are 12-12). New York stays on the road the next four days, opening a series with the Cards Monday night in St Louis. The Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record. It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. St Louis was just 8-10 through April 21 but a weekend sweep of the Pirates in St Louis gives the Cards a four-game winning streak with EIGHT wins in their last 10 games. St Louis is 16-12, one game back of the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. Mets manager Luis Rojas decided to give staff ace Jacob deGrom an extra day between starts, so deGrom has been pushed back to Tuesday. Lefty Joey Lucchesi (0-1, 6.75 ERA) has been called up from the taxi squad and is expected to start. However, Sean Reid-Foley and/or Robert Gsellman could serve as the "opener," if Rojas decides to go that route. Either way, the Cards own a HUGE "pitching mismatch" here, as the Cards will send veteran Adam Wainwright. Wainwright began as a reliever but has had a memorable career as a starter with the Cards. From 2009-14 (missed the 2011 season with an injury) he finished in the top-three of Cy Young voting FOUR times, with two 19-win seasons and two 20-win seasons. Looking at Wainwright's 0-3 record with a 4.08 ERA in 2021 does NOT tell the whole story. Wainwright lasted just 2.2 innings (allowed six ERs) in his 2021 debut but over his last four starts, he's allowed just seven ERs over 26 innings (2.42 ERA). That includes him allowing just three runs on 11 hits over 16 innings of his last two starts,, striking out 18 and walking just one. Wainwright spent the weekend in COVID-19 protocol due to contact tracing but rejoins the active roster Monday and is ready to go, with some extra rest. Regardless of who starts for the Mets, Wainwright and the Cards are the play. Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 123-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NO Pelicans at 7:40 ET. The Golden State Warriors had the NBA's worst record last season (15-50) but seem to be in a pretty good position to qualify for the Western Conference "Play-In" tournament (seeds 7-10) at 32-32. Golden St is currently the No, 9, just a half-game back of the Grizzlies (No. 8 seed) and a half-game up on the Spurs (No. 10 seed). The Warriors are in New Orleans tonight for the first of back-to-back games with the Pelicans, as the teams play again Tuesday (also in New Orleans). The HUGELY disappointing Pelicans are 29-35 (No. 11 seed), 2 1/2-games back of the Spurs and three games back of the Warriors. Steph Curry scored 23 of his 30 points in the third quarter as the Warriors pulled away from Houston for a 113-87 win on Saturday. Curry (31.1-5.5-5.8) has led the Warriors all season and has scored 30-plus points in 15 of his last 17. SF Wiggins (18.1 & 4,8) and SG Oubre (15.4 & 6.0) have been Curry's best supporting players this season but Oubre has missed the last two games with a wrist injury (questionable for this one). Center James Wiseman, the NBA's No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 Draft, was averaging 11.5 & 5.8 but is out for the season. Complimentary players like PF Paschall (9.5 & 3.2) and SG Lee (6.5) are also out for a while and as for Green (6.6-6.9-8.6), it's very difficult to define his worth to Golden St. New Orleans has two outstanding forwards in Williamson (27.0 & 7.1) and Ingram (24.0-5.0-4.9) plus two quality guards in Ball (14.4-4.6-5.8) and Bledsoe (11.9-3.4-3.7). The Pelicans are also missing some key players, as guards Alexander-Walker (10.2) and Hart (9.2 & 8.0) are out plus center Adams (7.7 & 8.9) has missed the last two games with a toe sprain. I've said all season that I don't understand just how the Pelicans are a sub-.500 team but that's EXACTLY what they are. Pretty much a "last chance" situation for New Orleans here at home Monday and Tuesday. The teams meet a third time (May 14) in San Francisco and the winner of two or more of these games will claim the tie-breaker edge. The Pelicans have NO margin for error with eight games remaining. After these back-to-back games against the Warriors, the Pelicans have a FIVE-game road trip before returning home for the regular-season finale against the Lakers on May 16. Put up or shut up time. Good luck...Larry |
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05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Lakers at 10:10 ET. Good luck...Larry |
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05-02-21 | Blazers +1 v. Celtics | Top | 129-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Por Blazers at 7:40 ET. The 35-28 Portland Trail Blazers and the 34-30 Boston Celtics square off Sunday at TD Garden. The Blazers have made the playoffs SEVEN years in a row but still have work to do to make in EIGHT in a row. Portland was 30-19 but then lost NINE of its next 11 from April 6-25 (including FIVE in a row), before winning THREE in a row. Portland is currently the West's No. 7 but sits just ONE game back of both Dallas and the :LA Lakers. Down the stretch, ONE of these three teams will be regulated to the 7-10 "Play-In" tournament. The Boston Celtics were expected to be among the East's elite teams this season but after an 8-3 start, Boston found itself just 23-25 thru March 31. Boston did win EIGHT of nine to open April but the Celtics lost FOUR of their next five, before winning 120-11 at home over the Hornets on Wednesday and rallied from a 29-point deficit at halftime to edge the Spurs 143-140 (OT) at home on Friday. Boston is currently the East's No. 6 seed (but only because it owns a tie-breaker over Miami), although the good news is that the Celtics (and Heat) are only 1 1/2-games back of the East's No. 4 seed (last home court edge in Round 1). The Blazers are led by the dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard (28.3-4.2-7.5) and McCollum (22.9-4.1-4.7) plus Powell has been excellent since coming from Toronto in a trade (has averaged 16.8 PPG in his 19 games as a Blazer. The ageless Anthony (13.6) has been steady off the bench plus with Nurkic back healthy, Portland has two quality centers. Kanter averages 11.7 & 11.4 and Nurkic 10.9 & 8.5. Offseason acquisitions PF Covington (8.7 & 6.8) and SF Jones (7.0 & 3.7) have been solid. The Boston duo of Tatum (26.4-7.5-4.4) and Brown (24.8-5.9-3.4) has been terrific, with Tatum coming off a 60-point game on Friday (tied Larry Bird for a Boston single-game record). However, PG Kemba Walker (18.2 points per game) has been sidelined the last three games due to an oblique injury, putting a lot of pressure on Smart (13.6 & 5.6 APG). Getting back to Tatum, he scored 32 points at Portland back on April 13, as the Celtics won 116-115. That contest came during a stretch in which Portland lost NINE of 11, with FOUR of the losses coming by either one or two points. Portland seeks revenge for that loss, coming in off three straight wins in which the team has averaged 130.3 PPG. Portland is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 104 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. MLB's first month of the 2021 season comes to an end on Friday, April 30. Yes, it's early, but this fact is somewhat noteworthy. The ONLY 2020 division winner to currently sit atop its division on the morning of May 2 is the 16-12 Oakland A's of the NL West (and just barely, with a half-game lead). The A's began the current season 0-6 and after splitting their next two games, ripped off 13 consecutive wins! However, the A's take the field on Sunday looking to avoid a three-game home sweep by the Baltimore Orioles, who have beaten the A's 3-2 (Fri) and 8-4 (Sat). The Orioles opened the current season with a three-game sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway but that good fortune didn't last long. Baltimore arrived in Oakland 11-14, coming off a 25-35 (.417) season in 2020. Actually, that was a HUGE improvement as Baltimore was 54-108 in 2019 and 47-115 in 2018, the worst record in MLB over that two-season span. However, as noted, the Orioles now have a chance for a three-game road sweep. Getting the Sunday start for Baltimore is lefty Bruce Zimmermann (1-3, 5.33 ERA), who is in his first full season in MLB. He'll be opposed by another lefty, Oakland's Sean Manaea (3-1, 2.83 ERA). Zimmermann's 2021 debut was solid (6 IP / 3 ERs) in an 11-3 Baltimore win but he's 0-3 in his last four outings (Orioles are 0-4), while allowing 28 hits and 12 ERs over 19.1 innings for a 5.57 ERA. Manaea won 12 games for the A's in both 2017 and 2018 but missed most of 2019 rehabbing an injury and then came the shortened 2020 season. However, during that two-season span he's 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA. His 2021 debut went poorly ((4.2 IP / 5 ERs in a 9-2 loss) but he's 3-0 over his last four starts (A's are 4-0), allowing just four ERs over 24 innings (1.50 ERA). The pitching matchup of Zimmermann and Manaea sure favors Oakland bplus note that the A's were 11-3 vs left-handed starters in 2020 and have opened 6-3 against lefties in 2021 (17-6 run). The LAST thing the A's need is to open a 10-game homestand by getting swept in a three-game series by the Orioles! Lay the 1 1/2-runs. Good luck...Larry |
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05-02-21 | Braves -121 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -121 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Braves at 1:07 ET. Note: Action play. Toronto says Stripling will start but I'm on Atlanta regardless. The Toronto Blue Jays' temporary home site (through at least May 24) because of Canada's COVID-19 restrictions is Dunedin, Fla, the Blue Jays' spring-training facility. Toronto is 6-4 'at home' in 2021, after taking the first two contests of this three-game series with Braves (won 13-5 on Friday and 6-5 Saturday in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning). Atlanta opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row) but the Braves opened the season 0-4, climbed back to .500 at 12-12 but have now lost THREE in row (currently 12-15). Sunday's series finale features Atlanta's Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.48 ERA), while Toronto hands the ball to Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.56 ERA), who returns from a forearm injury that has had him sidelined since early April. Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). He then made four playoff starts, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a KW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. Anderson's first start of 2021 went well (5 IP / 1 ER / 7-1 KW ratio in a no-decision) but he struggled over his next two (10.1 IP / 7 ERs / 6.10 ERA). However, the Braves won each of those two starts. He's pitched 13.2 scoreless innings in winning his last two starts (just five hits) and takes the mound with the Braves having won his last four. Stripling came to Toronto in a 2020 trade with the Dodgers. He made five appearances with the Jays last season, going 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He made two April starts in 2021, going 0-1 (team was 0-2) with a 7.56 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. How healthy is he here? Who knows but what we do know is that in seven appearances (four starts) since joining Toronto, he's pitched 24 innings and allowed 18 ERs (6.75 ERA). Backing the Braves and Anderson in this one is an easy decision. Good luck..Larry |
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05-01-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference game of the Month is on the LA Clippers at 10:10 ET. The Nuggets overcame a 3-1 deficit against the Jazz in the first round of last year's playoffs and then repeated that feat against the Clippers in the second round. The LA Clippers were headed for a showdown with the Lakers in last year's Western Conference Finals before they blew a 3-1 lead against the Nuggets, putting an end to yet another disappointing playoff performance by a franchise that has NEVER advanced to a Conference Finals appearance. The Nuggets visit Staples Center 43-21 a half-game back of the 42-21 Clippers, as the teams vie for the West's No. 3 seed. With the Lakers fading (LA is now 36-27), the Nuggets and Clippers come down the stretch hoping to earn that No. 3 seed, as the No. 4 seed will get a first-round matchup with the defending champs, who will likely have both A.D. and LBJ healthy. Both teams are dealing with key injuries heading into this contest, as the Nuggets and Clippers meet for the third time this season. The series is tied at 1-1, meaning the winner will own the all-important tiebreaker between the two teams (big deal). Denver center Jokic (26.2-10.8-8.6) is a leading MVP candidate and the Nuggets have continued to play well even after the loss of PG Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8). SF Porter was excellent in last year's bubble and is having a career season, averaging 18.8 & 7.6. He averaged 24.3 PPG in April, scoring 20-plus points in 14 of 16 games (averaged 29.4 his last five). The acquisition of Aaron Gordon (11.0 & 4.9) from Orlando has worked great, as although he's not scoring as much as he did with the Magic he's been a "great fit," with Denver going 15-3 in his 18 games. However, backup PG Monte Morris (10.1 & 3.2 APG) and now swingman Will Barton (12.7-4.0-3.2) both remain out due to hamstring injuries. The Clippers had won 11 of 12 before losing 120-103 at New Orleans on Monday and then 109-101 at Phoenix on Wednesday. Kawhi (25.7-6.7-5.1) missed a fifth straight game (foot) and has now missed 18 games on the season. His status is questionable again for this one. PG Beverley (fractured hand) and center Serge Ibaka (lower back tightness) remain out. George (23.7-6.5-5.3) has had some ankle soreness but is fine. PG Jackson (10.5 & 3.2 APG) has stepped up in Beverley's absence and Zubac (9.2 & 7.3) has done the same at center for Ibaka. Then there is new signee DeMarcus Cousins (joined team in early April), who has averaged 11.0 & 8.8 his last four games in only 17 minutes per game. This is a big game for both teams but I believe it's MORE important to the Clippers, who are coming off back-to-back losses. They open a four-game homestand with this contest and then finish the season with four games on the road. Who knows, we may even see Kawhi return. He's played in just one game over the last three weeks because of a sore right foot but the Clippers are 7-3 in Leonard's absence during April. Good luck...Larry |
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05-01-21 | Cardinals -130 v. Pirates | Top | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the StL Cards at 6:35 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates began the season losing their first two series but visited St Louis last night having gone 4-0-2 in their last six series. However, recent history has NOT been kind to the Pirates in St Louis and despite getting NINE walks from StL pitchers Friday night, lost 7-3. Friday's game marked the first of 19 meetings between the clubs this season and the St Louis win gave the Cards a 13-2 record at PNC Park in Pittsburgh since the beginning of the 2019 season. It's hard to see much of a change on Saturday, with St Louis sending Jack Flaherty (4-0, 3.18 ERA) to the mound to face Trevor Cahill (1-2, 7.11 ERA). The Cards have won all FIVE of Flaherty's starts to open 2021 and while he surely won't 'run the table,' but Flaherty is coming off a season-best seven-inning outing last Sunday against Cincinnati, allowing just one run on three hits with a 6-0 KW ratio of a win. Cahill's career began way back in 2009, when he went 10-13 for the A's. He followed with an 18-8 (2.97) record in 2010, then won 12 and 13 games the next two seasons. However, since 2013 he's gone just 33-49, including an abysmal start to the 2021 season. He owns a 7.11 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through four starts, while opponents are batting .289 against him. In comparison, opponents are batting .190 vs Flaherty in 2021 I noted the Cards' recent domination of Pittsburgh at PNC Park above but let me get back to Flaherty vs the Pirates. He's 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA in nine career starts (team is 7-2)vs Pittsburgh, posting a 0.94 WHIP with a KW ratio of 58-13 in 57 innings pitched. As for Cahill, he's 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA in 14 career appearances, including SIX starts (0-2 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.55 WHIP / teams are 2-4 in the starts). This is a clear Pitching Mismatch Good luck...Larry |
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05-01-21 | Mets v. Phillies -111 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Phi Phillies at 6:05 ET. Friday 'closed the door' on MLB's first month and as May dawns, the NL East resembles the NFC East from the NFL's most recent season (Washington won the division with a 7-9 record. The Mets and Phillies opened a three-game series last night in Philadelphia, with the Phillies eking out a 2-1. That result evened Philadelphia's record at 13-13, while the Mets' suffered a third straight loss to fall to 9-11. The Atlanta Braves (three-time defending NL East champs) opened the season 0-4 and are currently just 12-14, while the Nats are 10-12 and the Marlins 11-14. Bottom line is, the Phillies lead the division with their .500 record. Taking the mound for Saturday's game will be New York's Taijuan Walker (1-1, 2.14 ERA) and Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.13 ERA). Walker made 82 starts from 2015-107, going 28-28. However, he was limited to just 15 starts from 2018-20, with his Tommy John surgery being the main culprit to his limited action. The Mets signed him to a two-year contract in February and he picked up his first win as a Met in his last outing. Walker threw seven shutout innings in a 4-0 win over the Washington Nationals this past Sunday and I should note that New York has won three of his four starts to open 2012. Zack Wheeler began his career with the Mets but never fulfilled his promise. He was the prized free-agent signee for Philadelphia in the offseason prior to 2020 and he finished 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Phils went 6-2 in his first eight stars but were winless in his last three with Wheeler posting a 4.05 ERA. Wheeler threw seven scoreless innings (one hit) in his 2021 debut (10-0 KW ratio), a 4-0 win over the Braves. However, he was 0-2 (team was 0-3) in his next three starts, posting a 5.40 ERA. However, he was sharp in his most recent outing (4/26), winning 2-1 at St Louis (8 IP / 1 hit 1 ER / 9-1 KW ratio). Wheeler has made four starts against his former team with a 3.71 ERA but also note he's had 19 strikeouts against only two walks. The Mets are just 3-7 on the road this season (outscored 53-30), while the Phillies are a solid 9-4 at home, including taking three of four from the Mets. Wheeler leads the Phils to a win over his former team here, as the Phillies move ONE game over .500. Good luck...Larry |
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04-30-21 | Orioles v. A's -131 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -131 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET. MLB's first month of the 2021 season comes to an end on Friday, April 30. Yes, it's early, but this fact is somewhat noteworthy. The ONLY 2020 division winner to currently sit atop its division here in 2021 is the 16-10 Oakland A's of the NL West. VERY noteworthy is the fact that the A's began the current season 0-6 and after splitting their next two games, ripped off 13 consecutive wins! The A's return to Oakland off a 4-3 road trip and open a 10-games homestand, beginning with a three-game weekend series with the Orioles. The Orioles opened the current season with a three-game sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway but have quickly reminded themselves that they are NOT a very good team. Baltimore arrives in Oakland 11-14, coming off a 25-35 (.417) season in 2020. Actually, that was a HUGE improvement as Baltimore was 54-108 in 2019 and 47-115 in 2018, the worst record in MLB over that two-season span. The surprising John Means (2-0, 1.50 ERA) will get the ball for Baltimore, while Oakland manager Bob Melvin announced that Mike Fiers will make his 2021 debut on Friday. Fiers missed all of spring training with a back and side injury that required an MRI. The 35-year-old starter was reinstated off the 10-day IL on Monday and was initially placed in the bullpen but the A’s decided it wasn’t a good fit. I agree and will expound further in a bit. First to Means. He had just one appearance in 2018 *3.1 IP) but made 31 in 2019 (27 starts), going 12-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. However, he slumped to 2-4 with a 4,53 ERA in 10 starts in 2020, with the Orioles losing EIGHT of his 10 starts. He's been terrific so far through five starts in 2021 (team is just 3-2), with 1.50 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and a .171 BAA. Should we believe our eyes? I'm not sure. Here's what we DO know. Means is a lefty and after going 11-3 vs left-handed starters in 2020, the A's have opened 6-2 against lefties in 2021, giving them a 17-5 mark (77%!). If that's NOT enough, how about this regarding Fiers? Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 54 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-15 (.722) in those contests! That includes the team going 23-4 (.852) in his 27 home starts! Good enough for me. Good luck...Larry |
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04-30-21 | Cubs +100 v. Reds | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET. The Cincinnati Reds broke a six-year postseason drought in 2020 by earning a wild card berth with a 31-29 record (note: Reds would NOT have qualified for the postseason if NOT for last year's expanded playoff field). Meanwhile, the 34-26 Cubs won the NL Central in 2020 for the THIRD time in the last six years, while making their FIFTH postseason in that six-year span. The 11-13 Reds welcome the 11-14 Cubs to Cincinnati on Friday, as the two NL Central rivals open a three-game series. The Reds opened the current season 9-5 but 'limp' into this series losers of EIGHT of their last 10. The Cubs haven't been above .500 since they were 4-3 back on the morning of April 9. The Cubs and Reds meet for the first time in 2021 (Cubs won six of 10 vs the Reds in 2020). Taking the mound Friday night will be Jake Arrieta (3-2, 2.57 ERA) for the Cubs and Wade Miley (2-2, 2.45 ERA) for the Reds. Arrieta began his career with Baltimore but his trade to Cubs gave his career 'life.' He won a Cy Young award in 2015 (22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP) and went 18-8 in 2016 when the Cubs finally won the World Series. He signed with Philly as a free agent but from 2018-20 but was just 22-23 with a 4.36. He's returned to the Cubs for 2021 and has looked pretty good. He has allowed two ERs or less in FOUR of his five starts, earning a decision in each one. He may be a modest 3-2 but he has a 1.18 WHIP and .214 BAA to go along with his 2.45 ERA. Wade Miley's first big league season was 2011 and he's had just TWO notable ones. He was 16-11 for Arizona in 2012 and 14-6 for the Astros in 2019. He opened the current season 2-0, pitching 11 scoreless innings. He has then allowed six ERs over 11 innings during his last two starts, losing both with 4.91 ERA. Checking the record books, he's 87-87 in his career with a 4.21 ERA. The Cubs have been 'stuck in neutral' all season, while after a 6-1 start, the Reds are just 5-12. Cincy has lost FOUR in a row at home (outscored 33-23) and will face Arrieta, who is 7-2 with a 3.03 ARA and 0,93 WHIP in 10 career starts vs the Reds (teams are 7-3). That includes Arrieta going 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in his last six starts at Cincinnati! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-29-21 | Raptors v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 9:10 ET. The Toronto Raptors owned the league's second-best regular season record in 2018-19 and went on to win the NBA title behind Kawhi Leonard. Leonard left as a free agent (LA Clippers) prior to last season but the Raptors again owned the NBA's second-best regular season record (Bucks had the NBA's top record both seasons) and their .736 winning percentage (53-19) was even higher than with Kawhi the year before (58-19, .707). However, the current season has seen Toronto 'flop,' as they visit Denver to take on the Nuggets with a 26-36 mark. Toronto is tied with the Bulls as each team sits TWO games back of the No. 10 seed, the last team with an entry into the NBA's "Play-In" tournament (7-10 seeds play for the final two playoff spots, the 7th and 8th seeds). The Nuggets earned the nickname "The Comeback Kids," as they overcame 3-1 deficits in last season's playoffs with series wins over the Jazz and then the Clippers. Denver pushed the Lakers to six games in the West Finals, before bowing out. Denver was expected to be among the top teams in the West again this season and the Nuggets haven't disappointed. The Nuggets lost 113-108 at New Orleans back on March 21 but on March 26, eked out a home win over the Pelicans. That victory sparked an EIGHT game winning streak. Back-to-back losses April 11 and 12 snapped that streak but the Nuggets will enter this contest having won SEVEN of eight to reach 41-21. The Nuggets are currently the West's No. 4 seed (FIVE games better than the 5th-seed Lakers) and just ONE game back of the Clippers (No. 3 seed). Toronto' has the talent in PF Siakam (20.9-7.2-4.6), guards VanVleet (19.2-4.2-6.2) and Lowry (16.7-5.5-7.3) plus SF Anunoby (15.6 7 6.6) but with no home court (Raptors are playing their 'home' games in Tampa Bay) and a 10-20 record on the road, the 'whole' seems LESS that the sum of its parts. Denver center Jokic (26.3-10.9-8.7) is a leading MVP candidate and the Nuggets have continued to play well even after the loss of PG Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8). SF Porter was excellent in last year's bubble and is having a career season, averaging 18.7 & 7.6. The acquisition of Aaron Gordon (11.1 & 4.8) from Orlando has worked great, as although he's not scoring as much as he did with the Magic he's been a "great fit," with Denver going 14-3 in his 17 games. The Nuggets lost Jamal Murray (see above) for the season two weeks ago plus then lost backup PG Monte Morris (10.1 & 3.2 APG) and now swingman Will Barton (12.7-4.0-3.2) to hamstring injuries. Through all this, Denver is 7-1 in its last eight games and 24-6 since Feb 27. Denver would sure like to earn that No. 3 seed, as the No. 4 seed will likely face the Lakers, with LBJ and A.D. both back. Motivation should NOT be lacking, after the Nuggets almost let one slip away last night against the Pelicans (held on for a two-point win), plus they will surely remember getting blown out back on March 24 at Tampa, 135-111! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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04-29-21 | A's -109 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Rout is on the Oak A's at 1:10 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays went 40-20 in 2020 (best record in the AL) and advanced to just the second World Series in franchise history (lost 4-2 to the LA Dodgers). The Oakland A's won the West with a 36-24 record (tied for the AL's second-best) in 2020, earning their first division title in seven years. However, it was Oakland's THIRD straight playoff appearance, as the A's won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019. The Rays have been 'stuck in neutral' so far in 2021, as they are just 13-12 after winning the last two nights against the A's. Oakland opened 0-6 and at 1-7, ripped off 13 straight wins before losing 8-1 at Baltimore on Sunday. The A's edged the Rays 2-1 on Monday but as noted above, have lost 4-3 and 2-0 Tuesday and Wednesday. The teams cap this four-game series with an afternoon tilt at Tropicana Field with Oakland's Chris Bassitt (2-2, 4.13 ERA) going up against Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan. Let me start with McClanahan, who will make his major league regular-season debut. McClanahan made history in 2020 when he became the first pitcher to make his major league debut in the playoffs (four appearances last just 4.1 innings). Today, McClanahan will become the first pitcher in major league history to have appeared in a World Series game before making his regular-season debut (note: he pitched the ninth inning of Game 3 against the Dodgers on Oct 3, 2020). He's quite a story but let me move on to Oakland's Chris Bassitt. Bassitt was Oakland's Opening Day starter in 2021, after going 10-5 (3.81 ERA) in 2018 and 5-2 (2.29 ERA) in 11 starts (A's were 8-3!) of 2020's pandemic-shortened season. Bassitt allowed 13 hits and seven ERs over 11.1 innings (5.56 ERA) in losing both games. However, he's 2-0 over his last three starts (A's are 3-0), posting a 3.18 ERA, while also fashioning a 16-3 KW ratio in his last two starts. Bassitt is in his seventh season and has made just two appearances against the Rays (one start) and owns a 1.86 ERA. I like Bassitt and who really knows about McClanahan? That said, we DO know this. Oakland was 11-3 vs left-handed starters in 2020 and has opened 5-2 against them in 2021. Good luck...Larry |
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04-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -4 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play is on the Pho Suns at 10:10 ET. The LA Clippers were headed for a showdown with the Lakers in last year's Western Conference Finals but blew a 3-1 lead against the Nuggets, putting an end to yet another disappointing playoff performance by a franchise that has NEVER advanced to a Conference Finals appearance. Doc Rivers was let go and Ty Lue hired. One wondered if the Suns' 8-0 SU & ATS run in the NBA 'bubble' last season was a window into the future. That question has been emphatically answered, as the Suns will snap their 10-season playoff drought in the 2020-21 season. The two Pacific Division rivals meet for the THIRD time this season with the Clippers having won the first two. The 43-20 Clippers are a game behind the second-place Suns (43-18), as both teams are hoping to catch the 44-17 Utah Jazz (West's current No. 1 seed).standings. The Clippers had won 11 of 12 before losing 120-103 at New Orleans at New Orleans. Kawhi (25.7-6.7-5.1) missed a fourth straight game (foot) and has now missed 17 games on the season. His status is questionable against the Suns. George (23.7-6.5-5.3) scored only NINE points on 3-of-11 shooting in Monday's loss, as he played through ankle soreness. PG Beverley (fractured hand) and center Serge Ibaka (lower back tightness) remain out. PG Jackson has stepped up in Beverley's absence and Zubac has done the same at center for Ibaka. The there is new signee DeMarcus Cousins (7.3 & 5.2 in nine games), who had 16 points, 11 rebounds and two blocked shots on Monday. The Suns return home off a 3-2 road trip, coming off a 118-110 win over the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden on Monday, which snapped the Knicks' nine-game winning streak. PG Chris Paul scored seven points in the final 1:23 of the game, including a fadeaway three-pointer that finally "put away" the Knicks in the closing 15 seconds. Paul (16.1-4.7-8.7) has joined Booker (25.5-4.1-4.5) to form a dynamic backcourt duo, while center Ayton averages 15.0 & 10.7 with 32 double-doubles. SFs Bridges (13.1 & 4.4) and Johnson (9.9 & 3.2) have both had solid seasons. On the injury front, PFs Crowder (9.9 & 4.8) and Saric (9.1 & 4.0) are both questionable. The race for the top-four seeds in the West (Nuggets are four games back of the Jazz, three back of the Suns and two back of the Clippers) will come down to the final week of the season and after losing BOTH previous games to the Clippers, this marks a HUGE game for the Suns. One NEVER knows for sure about the availability of Kawhi but we DO know about the Suns, "Big 3" of Booker, Paul and Ayton. Suns win this "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants -140 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET. Colorado snapped a four-game losing streak in the series against the Giants with a 7-5 win on Tuesday. However, more notably, the Rockies won their FIRST road game of the season on Tuesday night, after opening 0-7! Colorado entered last night's game off a 12-0 loss on Monday and had scored just 11 total runs (1,57 per game) in its 0-7 start. Last night's game was tied 4-4 through nine innings but the Rockies hit back-to-back HRs (first was a two-run shot) to finally get that initial road win. The Giants lost for just the THIRD time in 12 home games and with LA also losing, remain tied atop the NL West with the Dodgers at 15-9 (more in a bit). The pitching matchup for the rubber match of this three-game series will be Colorado's German Marquez (1-1, 3.45 ERA) and LA's Alex Wood (2-0, 0.75 ERA). Marquez went 11-7, 14-11 and 12-5 for the Rockies from 2017-19, before going 4-6 with a 3.75 ERA in 13 starts (Rockies were 7-6) in 2020. He has been solid for Colorado so far, as he's not allowed more than three ERs in any of his five starts. He lost 4-0 at San Francisco on April 11 (three ERs allowed in 5.2 innings) and is 4-5 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 11 career starts vs San Francisco (team is 5-6). Alex Wood began his career with Atlanta back in 2013 and has had just ONE notable season (16-3 with a 2.72 ERA for the Dodgers in 2017). He's struggled with injuries since that time He was part of LA's 2020 World Series champions , appearing in two games vs the Rays, pitching four scoreless innings, However, he signed a one year, $3 million deal with the San Francisco Giants prior to this season. His first start of 2021 didn't come until April 18, when he pitched five scoreless innings against the Marlins. He faced Miami again on April 23, allowing one ER in seven innings. His 2-0 start with an 0.75 ERA, 0.50 WHIP (11-1 KW ratio) and .128 BAA is impressive but it's only two starts. His career record vs Colorado is not good, as he owns a 6.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, although his teams are 8-4 in those 12 starts. I'm NOT making a big deal about his lifetime mark, as this Colorado team is as noted, 1-7 away from home in 2021. As for the Giants in 2021, after finishing 14 games back of the Dodgers in 2020's shortened season, 29 games back of LA in 2019, 18.5 games back in 2018 and 40 games back in 2017, San Francisco is tied with LA at 15-9. The Giants are a 'horse' (team) of a different color in 2021 and take the rubber game of this series tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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04-28-21 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Den Nuggets at 9:10 ET. The New Orleans Pelicans are off an impressive 120-103 home win over the LA Clippers on Monday but the team had lost FIVE of its previous six games. The Pelicans are just 27-34 and they have just 11 games remaining in the regular season. New Orleans is currently 3 1/2 games back of the Warriors, who currently own the No. 10 seed, the last spot available in the NBA's new "Play-In" tournament (seeds 7-10). The Nuggets lost 113-108 at New Orleans on March 21 but on March 26, eked out a home win over the Pelicans. That victory sparked an EIGHT game winning streak. Back-to-back losses April 11 and 12 snapped that streak but the Nuggets enter this contest having won SIX of seven to reach 40-21. The Nuggets are currently the West's No. 4 seed, two games back of the Clippers, three games back of the Suns and four games back of the Jazz. Zion Williamson (26.9 & 7.2) has been as good as advertised and the 'haul' the Pelicans got from LA in the A.D. trade has been impressive. SF Ingram (24.2-5.0-4.9), PG Ball (14.1-4.2-5.7) and SG Hart (9.2 & 8.0 off the bench). Throw in Bledsoe (11.9-3.4-3.7) and one wonders just how this team is SEVEN games under .500. Denver center Jokic (26.2-11.0-8.7) is a leading MVP candidate and the Nuggets have continued to play well even after the loss of PG Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8). SF Porter was excellent in last year's bubble and is having a career season, averaging 18.5 & 6.6. The acquisition of Aaron Gordon (11.2 & 4.8) from Orlando has worked great, as although he's not scoring as much as he did with the Magic he's been a "great fit," with Denver going 13-3. I continue to be confused by the Pelicans but quoting Bill Parcells, "Yore are what your record says you are!" As for the Nuggets, despite losing Jamal Murray (see above) for the season two weeks ago. Then backup PG Monte Morris (10.1 & 3.2 APG) and now swingman Will Barton (12.7-4.0-3.2), are out due to hamstring injuries. Through all this, Denver is 6-1 in its last seven games and 23-6 since Feb 27. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. The Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were eliminated right away in the wild card round, losing 1-0 and 5-0 to the Braves. Meanwhile, after winning their EIGHTH consecutive NL West title in 2020, the Dodgers captured their first World Series title since 1988. The Reds entered the 2021 season expected to contend again in the NL Central, while the Dodgers were favored to win the NL West, the NL pennant and the World Series. The Dodgers opened 13-2 but all of a sudden have lost SIX of eighth to fall to 15-8. They are tied with the Giants in the NL West and over in the AL, the Oakland A's are also 15-8, having won 14 of their last 15. Meanwhile, the Reds opened 9-5 but last night's 5-3 (10 inn) win over the Dodgers snapped a SEVEN-game losing streak. It's the middle contest of this three-game series in LA tonight and although the Reds' 10-12 record leaves them in last-place in the NL Central, they are just THREE games back of the first-place Brewers (13-9). Taking the mound will be Jeff Hoffman (2-1, 2.66 ERA) for the Reds and Walker Buehler (1-0, 2.16 ERA) for the Dodgers. Hoffman spent his first five seasons with Colorado (68 appearances / 38 starts), going 10-16 with a 6.39 ERA. He's been a nice surprise in four starts for Cincy (Reds are 2-2), as he's posted a 2.66 ERA, far below his career ERA of 6.10. As for Buehler, he entered the 2021 season with a record of 24-9 in his short career and has the stuff of an ace. He owned a .727 win percentage in 70 appearances (61 starts) with a 3.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 420-93 KW ratio. He's got just one win in four starts this season (Dodgers are 3-1, though) but his ERA is 2.16 (one run less than his career mark) and his WHIP is 0.88 (was 1.03 entering the season).In three career starts vs the Reds, Walker owns a 1,47 ERA, 0.987 WHIP and a 23-1 KW ratio Despite LA's recent woes, the Dodgers still own MLB's best run-differential (plus-30) and Buehler over Hoffman is a 'no-brainer!' Lay the 1 1/2-runs. Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-21 | Blazers -4.5 v. Pacers | Top | 133-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Por Blazers at 7:10 ET. The 32-28 Portland Trail Blazers and the 29-21 Indiana Pacers could each be headed for the NBA's new "Play-In" tournament which will feature the 7-10 seeds in each conference. That would be a MAJOR disappointment to the Blazers, who made the playoffs seven years in a row and were 30-19 before losing NINE of their last 11 (including FIVE in a row). Portland has fallen to the West's No. 7 seed and are just 1 1/2-games up on the West's No. 10 seed. The Pacers were the East's No. 4 seed in last season's playoffs but were swept in the opening round by the Heat. Indiana opened 8-4 (season high four games over .500) but a loss at Portland on Feb 26 dropped them to 15-16 and the Pacers have not been over .500 since. The Pacers are currently the East's No. 9 seed and while they are just 2 1/2-games back of the No. 6 seed (last guaranteed playoff spot), they are also just 3 1/2-games clear of missing the play-in tournament altogether. The Blazers are led by the dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard (28.4-4.2-7.5) and McCollum (23.3-4.2-4.8) plus Powell has been excellent since coming from Toronto in a trade (has averaged 17.3 PPG in his six games as a Blazer. The ageless Anthony (13.5) has been steady off the bench plus with Nurkic back healthy, Portland has two quality centers. Kanter averages 11.9 & 11.4 and Nurkic 10.2 & 8.3. Offseason acquisitions PF Covington (8.7 & 6.7) and SF Jones (7.1 & 3.8) have been solid. Indiana's top-two players this season have been PG Brogdon (21.6-5.5-6.0) and PF Sabonis (19.9-11.6-6.) but Saboinis hasn't played since April 18 (back strain), Also out since April 18 have been center Myles Turner (12.6-6.5-3.4 BPG) with a foot injury and SG Jeremy Lamb (10.1) with a knee issue. LeVert (finally healthy) has played the last 24 games and averaged 18.8-4.6-4.1), so the Pacers don't miss Oladipo. Sumner, a fourth-year guard out of Xavier, has started the last four games and averaged 15.0 PPG. The Pacers enter on a three-game winning streak in which Brogdon has averaged 26.3-10.3-6.7 but the team's 'victims' have been OKC (20-41), Det (19-43) and Hou (15-46). A key for Portland will be the return to form of Lillard, as since returning from a three-game absence due to a hamstring issue, he is averaging 24.0 points and 5.0 assists plus shooting only 34.7% from the floor (29.0% on threes). His season marks are 43.4 and 37.4 percent, respectively. Indiana's three-game win streak means little (see above) and the Pacers are a poor 11-17 at home. Throw in a little 'payback" from losing 111-87 at home to the Pacers on Jan 14 and I see the Blazers winning comfortably in this one. Note: Portland was just a 3 1/2-point favorite at home in that one. Here, on a five-game slide (and losers of NINE of 11), they are favored by about the same margin on the road! Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-21 | Nationals -130 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Nationals at 7:07 ET. Full, detailed analysis Tuesday morning by 7:30 ET. |
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04-26-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals +102 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET. The StL Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record. It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies ended last season just and have not made the postseason since 2011 (a NINE-year drought). The Phillies opened a seven-game road trip in Colorado this past weekend and lost two of three, giving them a 10-11 record as they visit St Louis for a four-games series beginning Monday night. The Cards welcome the Phillies to St Louis a modest 11-10but on an uptick after sweeping the Red in a three-game home series Friday-Sunday. Tonight's starting pitchers are Zack Wheeler (1-2, 3.80 ERA) for Philadelphia and Adam Wainwright (0-2, 5.03 ERA for St Louis. Wheeler was the prized free-agent signee for Philadelphia in the offseason prior to 2020 and he finished 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Phils went 6-2 in his first eight stars but were winless in his last three with Wheeler posting a 4.05 ERA. He opened the current season with a 4-0 win over Atlanta (seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit with a 10-0 kW ratio) but he's 0-2 in his last three starts (Phillies are 0-3), with a 5.40 ERA. More bad news is that in three career starts vs the Cards, he owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Wainwright began as a reliever but has had a memorable career as a starter with the Cards. From 2009-14 (he missed the 2011 season with an injury) he finished in the top-3 of Cy Young voting FOUR times, with two 19-win seasons and two 20-win seasons. In contrast to Wheeler, he lasted just 2.2 innings (allowed six ERs) in his 2021 debut but over his last three outings, owns a 2.65 ERA and a 23-5 KW ratio. In 14 career starts vs the Phillies, he's 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (Cards are 9-5). Philadelphia 'limps' into St Louis just 2-7 on the road this season, with its pitching staff allowing 6.5 RPG. There is little reason to expect Wheeler to 'stop the bleeding' off his last three efforts. As for Wainwright, he comes in on a roll (see above) and should continue the recent excellence of a StL rotation that brings a 1.43 ERA over its previous six games into this series. There is a LOT to like about Wainwright and the Cards over Wheeler and the Phillies in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-26-21 | Suns -2 v. Knicks | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Pho Suns at 7:40 ET. One wondered if the Suns' 8-0 SU & ATS run in the NBA 'bubble' last season was a window into the future. That question has been emphatically answered, as the Suns will snap their 10-season playoff drought in the 2020-21 season. Phoenix is 42-18, the NBA's second-best record. The New York Knicks are playing meaningful games in April for the first time in nearly a decade and at 34-27, are closing in on ending the third-longest playoff drought in the NBA (last playoff appearance was back in the 2012-13 season). The Suns opened a five-game road swing last Monday in Milwaukee and beat the Bucks in OT. They followed with a three-point win at Philly but have since dropped two in a row. Phoenix was beaten 99-86 in Boston and then squandered a 13-point lead in the first half of a 128-119 loss at Brooklyn. The Suns wrap up their five-game trip at MSG against a new York team that's won NINE in a row (SEVEN straight at home), the team's longest winning streak since a 13-game run during the 2012-13 season The 42-18 Suns (.700) are in a virtual tie for second in the West with the Los Angeles Clippers (43-19, .694), two games behind the Utah Jazz and three games up on Denver (No. 4 seed). The Knicks and Hawks are both 34-27, vying for the No. 4 seed (last team to get the home court edge in Round 1) but both teams are just two games up on Boston and Miami. Neither of those four teams want to finish as the No. 7 seed, putting them into the "Play-In" tournament. Phoenix is led by the dynamic backcourt of Booker (25.3-4.1-4.5) and Paul (16.0-4.6-8.7) plus center Ayton averages 15.1 & 10.7 with 32 double-doubles. PF Julius Randle (24.0-10.5-6.0) and SF Barrett (17.6 & 5.7) have starred all season for the Knicks but a group of five players (averaging between 10.4-13.8 PPG) are 'flying under the radar.' Both PGs are healthy right now in Rose (13.6 & 4.0 APG) and Payton (11.3 & 3.4 APG). SGs Burks (12.6) and Quickly (11.7) plus SF Bullock (10.4) complete the group. The Knicks are the NBA's No. 1 pointspread team (39-21-1) and the Suns are No. 2 (36-23-1) but the Suns are 8 1/2-game better than the Knicks on the season. New York's nine-game winning streak ends in a T-H-U-D! Good luck...Larry |
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04-26-21 | A's -115 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL) is on the Oak A's at 7:10 ET. The Oakland A's won 97 games in 2018 and 2019 but finished second to the Astros in the AL West but went 36-24 (higher win percentage than in either 2018 or 2019) to win the division by SEVEN games. However, Oakland lost 3-1 to the Astros in the ALDS. The Tampa Bay Rays won 90 and 96 games in 2108 and 2019 and then posted the AL's best record in 2020 (40-20), on its way to the franchise's second-ever World Series appearance. Oakland lost its first six games to start 2021 but at 1-7, reeled off 13 consecutive wins before the streak ended Sunday with an 8-1 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore. The Rays started 2-0 in 2021 but then lost EIGHT of 11. A five-game winning streak followed but after losing two of three at home to Toronto this past weekend, the Rays welcome the 14-8 A's to Tropicana Field for a four-game series at just 11-11. Monday's pitching matchup will feature Sean Manaea (2-1, 3.04 ERA) of Oakland and Rich Hill (1-0, 8.82 ERA) of Tampa Bay. Manaea won 12 games for the A's in 2017 and 2018 but missed most of 2019 rehabbing an injury and then came the shortened 2020 season. However, during that two-season span he's 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA. Rich Hill started way back in 2005 and was 17-8 the last three seasons with the Dodgers but has been BRUTAL in his first four starts for the Rays. He's allowed four ERs in EACH of his four starts, posting an 8.82 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and opponents have batted .308 against him. Yes, Oakland's win streak is over but Oakland's starting pitchers posted a 2.78 ERA and its relievers a 2.53 one in that span. Manaea has looked good so far and in three career starts vs the Rays, owns a 2.70 ERA. As for Hill, he'll face an Oakland lineup which scored just ONE run on Sunday but had averaged 6.2 runs during its 13-game winning streak. Hill's struggled mightily so far in 2021 (see above) and it's hardly good news that in his modest two starts vs the Rays, he has a 7.50 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Pitching mismatch surely applies. Good luck...Larry |
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04-25-21 | Phillies v. Rockies -107 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies have not made the postseason since 2011 (NINE-year drought) and came to Colorado on Thursday to open a 10-game road trip with a three-game series with the Rockies. Philadelphia was 9-9, including just 1-5 on the road. Colorado went 3-4 in its first seven games of the 2021 season but then dropped SEVEN in a row. However, the 6-12 Rockies welcomed Philly to Coors Field having won three of four. The Rockies won 5-4 on Friday but the Phillies rebound with a 7-5 win on Saturday. The rubber match of this three-game series at Coors Field will feature starting pitchers Chase Anderson (0-2, 4.15 ERA) for Philadelphia and Jon Gray (2-1, 2.42 ERA) of Colorado. This marks Anderson's fourth start of 2021 and he has lasted just four innings (twice) and five innings in his other start (Phillies have lost all THREE of his starts). Anderson has made 12 career starts vs the Rockies, going 4-3 with 4.68 ERA (teams are 7-5 in his 12 starts). Gray has had an up-and-down career with the Rockies (45-37 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.34 WHIP entering 2021), showing signs of being an ace and at other times searching for consistency. Gray not only owns a 2.42 ERA in four starts this season but he has a 1.12 WHIP and an opponents batting average of .182. Gray is 3-3 with a 4.14 ERA in seven career starts (Rockies are 3-4). Now, let's look a little deeper. Let's start with the fact that Philadelphia is just 2-6 on the road with its pitching staff allowing 5.8 RPG. Yes, Colorado is a modest 7-7 at Coors but the Rockies are averaging 5.5 RPG. Now to Anderson and Gray. FIVE of Anderson' 12 career starts vs Colorado have come at Coors, with him posting a 6.66 ERA. As for Gray, in his four career starts against the Phillies at Coors Field, he owns a 1.37 ERA and has gone at least SIX innings in each outing. Want more. THREE of Gray's four starts in 2021 have come at home, where he owns a 1.47 ERA and BAA of just .145. Hence, a Pitching Mismatch! Good luck...Larry |
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04-25-21 | Angels +134 v. Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 134 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the LA Angels at 2:10 ET. The LA Angels entered the 2021 season looking to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020 but snuck into an expanded playoff field and took the Rays to seven games in the ALCS before losing. The Angels opened the season 6-2 and were 8-5 in mid-April. However, they've lost the first three contests of this four-game series in Houston, giving them FIVE losses in their last six to fall to 9-10. The Astros opened the season 6-1 but then lost six straight and NINE of 10, before winning 8-2, 5-4 (10 inn) and 16-2 over LA in this series. Houston is now 10-10 as the Astros attempt to complete the series sweep. However, both teams have seen the Oakland A's 'blow past them' in the AL West by winning 13 in a row. Sunday's pitching matchup is Dylan Bundy (0-2, 4.50 ERA) for LA and Lance McCullers (1-1, 5.27 ERA) for Houston. Bundy began with Baltimore (showed little) but was 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts for LA last season. He hasn't started well in 2021, going 0-2 in four starts (Angels are 1-3) with a 4.50 ERA. McCullers is in his sixth season with Houston and owns a 33-26 record with a 3.74 ERA. He pitched five innings in each of his first two starts this season (allowed one run in each) but allowed six ERs in just 3.2 innings in his most recent outing on April 14. However, this marks his first start since that poor outing (10-day break). This play is not based on the starters but more on the fact that I don't expect the Angels to get swept in this four-games series and that those Houston bats had 18 hits and 16 runs in Saturday's win. Angels NEED a bounce-back win here, as they have six road games coming up next week, at Texas and then in Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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04-25-21 | Yankees v. Indians +113 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 113 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 1:10 ET. The Yankees were favored to win the AL pennant entering 2020 but were just .500 after 42 games of the 60-game schedule. They were able to earn a wild card spot at 33-27 but only because of the expanded playoff field. Cleveland was 35-25 in 2020 and also earned a wild card spot, the team's FOURTH postseason appearance in the previous five years. The Indians won three straight AL Central titles (2016-18) and only non-playoff year in that run was when they won 93 games in 2019. The Indians and Yanks met in a wild card series last season, with New York winning 2-0 (both games were in Cleveland). The Yanks and Indians opened a four-game weekend series in Cleveland on Thursday with New York just 6-11 and Cleveland at 8-8. New York has continued its domination of the Indians in Cleveland by winning the first three games of the series, as the Yankees have seven HRs among their 22 hits in winning 6-3, 5-3 and 2-1. The Indians are now on a four-game losing streak, not to mention having gone 3-8 in their last 11 games during which they have been held to three runs or less SEVEN times. The Yankees look for a four-game sweep Sunday afternoon, while the Indians hope to avoid that dreaded four-game home sweep. Jameson Taillon (0-1, 5.40 ERA) will get the nod for New York, while Cleveland counters with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 3.55 ERA). Taillon's first season was 2016 with Pittsburgh and in 2018, he went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts (Pirates were 20-12). Taillon's 2019 season was cut short due to a forearm injury and he was shut down for the remainder of the season on August 2 to undergo surgery. He was 2–3 with a 4.10 ERA in 7 starts. His 2019 surgery to repair a flexor tendon as well as UCL revision led him to miss all of 2020. The Pirates traded Taillon to the New York Yankees in January of 2021. He's made three starts for New York so far (team is 1-2) and while he does own a 15-2 KW ratio, he also owns a 5.40 ERA and opponents are batting .283 against him. McKenzie made his MLB debut in 2020 and in eight appearances (six starts) posted a solid 3.24 ERA plus owned an excellent 0.90 WHIP and .179 BAA. He's made three appearances (two starts) in 2021. His ERA (3.55) and BAA (.209) remain good but his WHIP has jumped to 1.50. Bottom line is this. The Yanks are being careful with Taillon's workload and this marks his first start if 2021 on four days' rest since returning from that second Tommy John surgery. He's had five days of rest between starts one and two and six days off between starts two and three. The Indians are just 6-for-23 with RISP in this series but that seems unlikely to continue. As for the Yankees completing a four-game sweep in Cleveland? That hasn't happened since June 21-23, 1996. Take the small home dog. Good luck...Larry |
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04-24-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -141 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the LA Dodgers at 9:10 ET. The Dodgers made it EIGHT straight NL West titles in 2020 and then went on to capture the franchise's first World Series win since 1988. As for San Diego, the Padres snapped a 13-year postseason drought in 2020. The Padres won their wild card series over the Cardinals but then were no match for the Dodgers, getting swept 3-0 and outscored 23-9. The Dodgers entered the current season as a big favorite to win the NL West, the NL pennant and even the World Series. However, the Padres have assembled an impressive team and were a 'sexy' preseason team "to watch for!" These two teams met last weekend in San Diego with the Padres avoiding a three-game sweep with a 5-2 last Sunday. The Dodgers were 13-2 before losing last Sunday and then split a two-game series in Seattle, before losing the first two contests of their four-game home series vs the Padres. LA's 14-6 record is still the best record in MLB but the Dodgers enter Saturday night's game losers of FOUR of their last five. The Padres avoided a three-game sweep at home to the Dodgers last Sunday but followed by losing all three games at home to the Brewers Monday-Wednesday. They came to LA on Thursday just 10-10 but have opened the series with back-to-back wins. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit two HRs and Yu Darvish went seven strong innings as the San Diego Padres earned a 6-1 victory Friday, after a 3-2 Thursday win. Tonight's starting pitchers are the same as last Sunday's game. Blake Snell goes for San Diego and Trevor Bauer for Los Angeles. Both are former Cy Young winners, with Snell earning his in 2018 with Tampa Bay (21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .186 BAA) and Bauer winning his last season with Cincy (just 5-4 but with a 1.73 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 100-17 KW ratio and a BAA of .159). Snell has yet to earn a decision in four 2021 starts (team is 2-2 and he owns a 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP but also a .186 BAA). Bauer is 2-0 in three starts (Dodgers are 2-1) with a 2.42 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 36-6 KW ratio and .114 BAA. In last Sunday's game, Snell pitched five innings (two ERs allowed with a 7-2 KW ratio), while Bauer allowed one run (solo HR) in six innings with a 7-1 KW ratio and left with a 2-1 lead. Snell complained LOUDLY when he was removed in Game 6 of last year's World Series against the Dodgers but the fact remains that he is not much more than a five-inning pitcher. His longest outing in four starts this season is five innings (twice), going 4.2 innings in a third and getting just TWO outs in a fourth. Bauer has pitched into the 7th inning in three of his four 2021 starts, with last Sunday's effort (see above) being his shortest outing (six innings). In this quick "re-hook," I'm on Bauer and the Dodgers. Good luck...Larry |
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04-24-21 | Blue Jays v. Rays -115 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Rays at 6:10 ET. 2020's expanded playoff field allowed the 32-28 Blue Jays to snap a three-year playoff drought but the Jays were eliminated 2-0 (lost 3-1 and 8-2) quickly by the Rays. Tampa Bay owned the AL's best record (40-20) in 2020 and the Rays advanced to the World Series. Both teams are 'stuck in neutral' to open the 2021 season, with the Jays moving to 9-10 with Friday's 5-3 win at Tropicana Field, while the loss dropped the Rays to 10-10. Toronto scored four times in the first innings (a three-run HR did most of the damage) off Tampa Bay ace Tyler Glasnow and held on for a 5-3 win. Taking the mound on Saturday will be Toronto's Robbie Ray (0-1, 1.80 ERA), while the Rays' Brent Honeywell Jr. (0-0, 2.70) is expected to serve as the opener for the Rays before yielding to Ryan Yarbrough. Ray has spent most of his eight-year career with the Arizona Diamondbacks before getting traded to the Blue Jays during the 2020 season. His career record is 49-52, with a 4.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. That includes his "15 minutes of fame" in 2017, when he went 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA. The Jays could surely use a 'flashback' season from Ray in 2021. Ray has made two starts in 2021, posting a 1.80 ERA but 1.60 WHIP, as he has more walks (9) than Ks (6) in 10 innings. After Honeywell, left-hander Yarbrough will get the bulk of the innings. This will be his fifth appearance in 2021 (5.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP) but note that is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 12 career appearances (five starts) against Toronto. Toronto is still waiting for George Springer ( signed a team-record six-year, $150 million contract in the offseason) to get on the field and without him, rank just 18th in scoring (4.18 RPG). I don't have much faith in Ray and expect the Rays to bounce back here vs their AL East rivals Good luck...Larry |
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04-24-21 | Pirates v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Delight (Run-Line Rout) is on the Min Twins at 2:10 ET. The Pirates opened the 2021 season having missed the playoffs the previous FIVE seasons, coming off back-to-back seasons of playing .396 baseball (88-134). Minnesota entered the current season off three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons, winning the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020. The teams opened a three-game series at Target Field on Friday with the 9-10 Pirates having won EIGHT of their last 12, while the 6-11 Twins were last in the AL Central, after losing NINE of their last 10. The Twins got an outstanding effort Friday from veteran J.A. Happ, who took a no-hitter into the 8th inning. The Pirates got another strong start from JT Brubaker, who gave up just five hits but two of them were solo HRs (Twins won 2-0). The middle contest of the three-game series goes this afternoon, as Trevor Cahill (0-2, 9.69 ERA) gets the ball for Pittsburgh and Michael Pineda (1-0, 1.00 ERA) for Minnesota. Cahill's career began way back in 2009, when he went 10-13 for the A's. He followed with an 18-8 (2.97) record in 2010, then won 12 and 13 games the next two seasons. However, since 2013 he's gone just 32-49 with a 4.66 ERA, including an abysmal start to the 2021 season. He lasted just four innings in two starts (five innings in a third) while posting a 9.69 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and .357 BAA (Pittsburgh is 0-3). Pineda's career has been interrupted by injury on a semi-regular basis but he seemed to find a 'home' with Minnesota in 2019. He was 11-5 with a 4.01 ERA before he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. His suspension ran into 2020, when he made five starts, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA (Twins were 5-0). He's rolled that positive mojo over into the 2021 season, with consecutive outings of five innings, six innings and seven innings. He allowed just two hits on no runs in his seven-inning start vs Boston on April 15, a 6-12 win. He has opened the 20102 season with two good outings, allowing just two ERs over 11 innings (1.64 ERA / 0.91 WHIP). He takes the mound with a 1.00 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and .159 BAA after three starts. In taking the Twins on Friday over the Pirates, I said "Let's NOT forget that Minnesota owned MLB's best home record last season (24-7), so expect the Twins to get things turned around here at Target Field." With Pineda pitching with confidence and Cahill looking totally 'lost' (also note he's made eight career starts vs Minnesota with his teams going 2-6!), I start my Saturday by laying the 1 1/2-runs with the Twins. Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:10 ET. The Denver Nuggets are 38-20 and currently own the West's No. 4 seed (last team to earn home court edge in the first round). The Nuggets are in San Francisco tonight to take on the Warriors who are 29-30. Golden St, which has rebounded form a 15-50 season last year, will need to qualify for this season's playoffs through the "Play-In" tournament (seeds 7-10 play for the 7th and 8th seeds). Golden St is currently three games clear of the Pelicans (11th seed) and just ONE game back of the No. 8 seed. Getting back to Denver, the Nuggets are 3 1/2-games up on the West's No. 5 seed (LA Lakers). Tonight's game is a rematch of a 116-107 Golden State home win on April 12, a game in which the Nuggets lost star guard Jamal Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8) for the rest of the season with a knee injury. However, Denver has won FOUR in a row since losing Murray, led by MVP candidate Nikola Jokic. He's averaging 26.4-11.0-8.7 and his 51 double-doubles are an NBA-best. Denver is a very deep team and SF Porter (17.6 & 7.7) is having a career season, swingman Barton (12.9-4.1-3.3) has missed just THREE games all season plus Aaron Gordon has been a HUGE trade deadline acquisition. Gordon's numbers are somewhat modest (10.8 & 4.9) but it's hard to ignore the fact that Denver has gone 11-2 since his first game as a Nugget back on March 28! Curry (31.1-5.5-5.9) had 53 points in Golden St's April 12th win over Denver but saw his 11-game run of 30-point games come to an end in the Warriors' 118-114 loss at Washington on Wednesday (he scored just 18-points). The Warriors know all about losing injured stars, as Klay Thompson tore his Achilles this past offseason while rehabbing his knee issue. More recently, the team's No. 1 pick of the 2020 Draft, center James Wiseman, was lost for the season (last played on April 10 and was averaging 11.4 & 5.8 for the season). Eric Paschall (9.5 & 2.2), Damion Lee (6.5( and Juan Toscano-Anderson (5.1) are all listed as out for this game. The Nuggets are determined to hold on to that No. 4 seed (need home court edge to beat the Lakers in the first round) and a little "payback" from their April 12th loss to the Warriors should be the extra-motivation for them to win here by a comfortable margin. Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 130-128 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 10:10 ET. The Memphis Grizzlies are hoping the return of Jaren Jackson Jr. will be the added boost needed to secure a playoff spot. Jackson (17.4 & 4.6 last season) missed the first 56 games of the season due to August surgery to repair meniscus damage in his left knee but The Grizz were able to go 29-27. Jackson returned on Wednesday when he had 15 points, eight rebounds and four blocked shots in just 18 minutes during a 117-105 road loss against the Los Angeles Clippers. Memphis visits Portland tonight with a 29-29 record, FOUR games clear of the West's No. 11 seed. However, the Grizzlies would sure love to avoid the 7-10 "Play-In" tournament. For them to do that, Memphis needs to catch and pass BOTH the Mavs and Blazers (each are 32-26). The Grizzlies have a chance to gain on the Blazers tonight and will get a second chance when the teams meet again on Sunday. Portland badly needs to reverse its fortunes, as the Blazers enter on a three-game slide, as well as having lost EIGHT of their last 11 contests. The last two losses have been 'killers.' The Clippers overcame a five-point deficit with 63 seconds to go to give them a 113-112 victory over Portland on Tuesday and then Norman Powell missed a "floater" as time expired in a 106-105 loss to Denver on Wednesday. The lone "bright spot" in the loss to the Nuggets was that Damian Lillard returned after missing three games with a hamstring injury. He did score 22 points but also shot just 9 of 23, including 2 of 10 on threes. Both teams have depth, as Jackson joins SEVEN Memphis players averaging in double digits, led by PG Morant (19.1 & 7.3), center Valanciunas (17.0 & 12.6) and SG Brooks (16.6). The not so good news is that Valanciunas has missed the previous two games while going through the league's concussion protocol, and it is unknown if he will suit up Friday. Lillard (28.6-4.2-7.6) is back with McCollum (23.2-4.1-4.8) to form one of the NBA's best backcourts, which has also seen Powell come off the bench to average 17.6 PPG in 14 games since being acquired from Toronto. The ageless Anthony has added 13.6 PPG off the bench plus Portland's 'two-headed' center duo of Kanter (9.3 & 11.6) and Nurkic (9.3 & 7.4) is quite productive. After two heartbreaking losses, I see this as the "perfect" spit for a Portland breakout win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-21 | Phillies v. Rockies -108 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Col Rockies at ET. The Phillies got a walk-off win Wednesday at home vs the Giants, allowing them to split a six-game homestand. The 9-9 Phillies play in the NL East, MLB's only division without a winning team (Mets are 7-7) After getting Thursday off, the Phillies begin a 10-game road trip with a three-game weekend season in Colorado vs the Rockies. Colorado went 3-4 in its first seven games of the 2021 season but then dropped SEVEN in a row. However, the 6-12 Rockies welcome Philly to Coors Field having won three of four, after taking a two-game home series over the slumping Astros on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Phillies will send Vince Velasquez to the mound in a spot start, as Matt Moore is in COVID-19 protocols, Colorado will counter with German Marquez, who has made four starts (1-1, 3.57 ERA). Velasquez has made three relief appearances in 2021, pitching a total of just four innings with a 9.00 ERA, and 2.75 WHIP (he's struck out nine but allowed eight walks). His first season was 2015 and has 134 appearances (106 starts), going 28-35 with a 4.75 ERA. He's faced the Rockies seven times, going 2-1 (team is 4-3) but with a 4.91 ERA and 1.58. Marquez went 11-7, 14-11 and 12-5 for the Rockies from 2017-19, before going 4-6 with a 3.75 ERA in 13 starts (Rockies were 7-6) in 2020. He has been solid for Colorado so far, as he's not allowed more than three ERs in any of his four starts. In four career starts vs Philly, he's 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA (Colorado is 3-1). Colorado was not dominant at Coors Field last season, going just 12-18 but the Rockies did average 5.1 RPG in their home park. Colorado is winless on the road this season (0-6) and while the Rockies are a modest 6-6 at home, they have averaged 5.6 RPG at Coors. As for the Phillies, they are 1-5 on the road with their pitching staff allowing 6.0 RPG. NOT a good spot for Philadelphia! Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-21 | Pirates v. Twins -145 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The Pirates opened the 2021 season having missed the playoffs the previous FIVE seasons, coming off back-to-back seasons of playing .396 baseball (88-134). Minnesota entered the current season off three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons, winning the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020. However, as the two teams open a three-game series at Target Field on Friday, the Pirates are 9-10 and the Twins just 6-11 (last in the AL Central). The Pirates won their season opener but followed with a SIX-game losing streak. However, they head to Minnesota having won EIGHT of their last 12. In contrast, the Twins opened 5-2 but welcome the Pirates to town having lost SIX of seven. JT Brubaker (2-0, 1.76 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh, while Minnesota counters with J.A. Happ (0-0, 3.12 ERA). Brubaker made his MLB debut in 2020 and in 11 appearances (nine starts / Pirates were 3-6) had a 4.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and allowed opponents to bat .262. However, he's making an early case to become Pittsburgh's 'ace.' He's 2-0 in three starts (team is 2-1), with an ERA of 1.76, a WHIP of 1.04 and a BAA of .196. Who is this guy? The veteran Happ hasn't started since April 13 and in two starts in 2021 (both team losses), owns a respectable 3.12 ERA. Happ's pitching for his SEVENTH team and made 11 starts for Pittsburgh back in 20145, going 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He's only faced Pittsburgh ONCE since 2012 but in 10 career starts vs the Pirates, owns a 2.95 ERA. Here's the rub. Happ's had more than a few good moments in a career that began back in 2007, while let's NOT be too quick to hand the moniker of 'ace' on Brubaker, after just three early starts (see above for his 2020 numbers!). Let's NOT forget that Minnesota owned MLB's best home record last season (24-7), so expect the Twins to get things turned around. As for the Pirates, they were just 2-10 vs lefties on the road in 20o2 and have opened 1-2 here in 2021 (that's 3-12). Expect veteran lefty Happ to lead the Twins to a win in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-22-21 | Marlins v. Giants -140 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET. The Giants' three World Series titles (2010, 2012 and 2014) seem like they came 20 years ago, although San Francisco just barely missed the postseason last year with a 29-31 record. The Miami Marlins entered last year's COVID-shortened season having posted the NL's worst record in both 2019 (57-105) and 2018 (63-98). The Marlins suffered a significant COVID break after the team's opening series and did not play from July 27 through Aug 4. However, the Marlins not only made up all of its missed games but at 31-29 (just two games better than San Francisco), made the expanded playoffs. Both teams played Wednesday on the East Coast, as Miami completed a 3-2 homestand with a 3-0 win over Baltimore, while the Giants lost 6-5 at Philly to finish 3-3 on a six-game road trip. Both were forced to make the cross-country trip without a day off but at least the Giants are back home. These teams played a three-game series last weekend in Miami, with the Marlins taking the first two games, before the Giants avoided a sweep with a 1-0 win on Sunday. Miami has opened 8-9, while the Giants have surprised with their 11-7 start. Taking the mound tonight for the first of a four-game series will be Miami's Daniel Castano (0-0, 1.80 ERA) and San Francisco's Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.45 ERA). Both pitched in the series in Miami, with Castano allowing one run in five innings of a 4-1 Miami win on Friday and Sanchez going 4.2 innings while allowing just ONE run (Giants would lose 7-6). Castano's first season in "the Bigs" was 2020 and this marks just his ninth appearance (8th start). He owns a 2.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in that limited action. Some may remember Sanchez from the 2016 season when went 15-2 for Toronto while winning the American League ERA title (3.00). However, from 2016-19 he was just 10-23, as injuries plagued him. An MRI revealed a torn capsule in his right shoulder in August of 2019 and he missed the rest of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season. Sanchez agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the San Francisco Giants in February of 2021. Sanchez has allowed four runs in 14.2 innings of his first three starts for San Francisco (2.45 ERA) but the Giants have given him just ONE run of support while he's been in the game. Expect that to change here, as the Giants have opened 5-1 at home in 2021. Good luck...Larry |
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04-22-21 | Pirates v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Delight is on Pit/Det Over at 1:10 ET. The Pirates opened the 2021 season having missed the playoffs the previous FIVE season, coming off back-to-back seasons of playing .396 baseball (88-134). Pittsburgh has nothing on Detroit, which has missed the last SIX postseasons, finishing below .400 in FOUR of them. The teams split a doubleheader on Wednesday (Tuesday's game was postponed) and will cap this three-game series this afternoon. Pittsburgh is 8-10 and Detroit 7-11, after its 5-2 (7 inn) win in the second-half of Wednesday's doubleheader snapped a FIVE-game slide. Both teams struggle offensively, as the Pirates are averaging just 3.89 RPG (23rd) and the Tigers averaging 3.44 RPG (28th). As for their pitching staffs, Pittsburgh's team ERA of 4.91 ranks 29th and Detroit's team ERA of 4.95 ranks last (30th). Pittsburgh will send Mitch Keller (1-2, 8.74 ERA) to the mound, while Detroit counters with Jose Urena (0-3, 5.52 ERA). Keller's first MLB season was 2019 and he's made just 19 career starts, going 3-8 (team is only 5-14). He has not made it past the fifth inning in any of his three starts of 2021 and owns an 'ugly' 2.12 WHIP to go along with his 8.74 ERA, as opponents are batting .333 against him. His career numbers (19 starts) reveal a 6.22 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and .300 BAA. Urena spent his first six seasons with Miami and this is his first with Detroit. Urena struggled badly in his first two starts of 2021 (7 ERs allowed in 7.2 IP) but had a strong outing last Friday at Oakland (2 ERs allowed over 7 innings). That said, his ERA is 5.52 and his WHIP 1.70 entering this game in 2021. Looking back at his career, if one were to exclude his 14-7 record in 2017, his career record is 18-42 and his ERA in 4.98. Two struggling pitching staffs sending two struggling starters to the mound (also note that Detroit also owns the highest bullpen ERA of 6.56 in MLB) equals an OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-21 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sac Kings at 10:10 ET. Here's what I wrote in taking the Kings over the T-wolves last night. The Sacramento Kings were 22-25 entering their final game of March at San Antonio. That put then]m squarely in the 'hunt' for a spot in the West's "Play-In" tournament (seeds 7-10) to determine the West's No. 7 and 8 seeds. However, they were routed by the Spurs that night and that defeat was the first of a NINE-game losing streak. The Kings snapped that slide with a convincing fashion Sunday night in Dallas. The Kings never trailed in a 121-107 over the Mavericks. I'm not sure if the Kings can get back in the "Play-In" race, as they are currently 5 1/2 games back of the current No. 10 seed and only have 15 games remaining in the season. The Kings welcome the Minnesota Timberwolves to Sacramento for back-to-back home games on Tuesday and Wednesday. Minnesota is 15-43 on the season, tied with the Houston Rockets for the NBA's worst record. The T-wolves 'limp' into Sacramento on a SEVEN-game road losing streak without their second-leading scorer, Malik Beasley. Beasley is averaging 19.6 PPG but has been out since April 2 with a hamstring injury. Center Towns (24.7 & 10.8), PG Russell (19.0 & 4.9 APG) and the 2020 Draft's No. 1 selection, SF Anthony Edwards (18.1), will be on hand. However, as noted, the T-wolves have lost seven straight on the road by an average margin of 10.0 PPG. Sacramento's surprising win at Dallas was accomplished without center Holmes (14.1 & 8.9), who has missed the last three games because of a hamstring injury. PF Bagley (13.9 & 7.4) has been sidelined since March 15. De'Aaron Fox scored 30 points vs the Mavs and leads the Kings in scoring (25,2) and assists (7.1 APG). Hield (16.5 & 4.5) and rookie Halliburton (12.6 & 5.0 APG) join Fox to give Sacramento an excellent perimeter trio. SF Barnes added 24 points in the win over Dallas and continues to be a significant contributor, averaging 15.7 & 6.6 on the season. Center Hassan Whiteside (8.1 & 6.1) made just his second start of the season on Sunday (finished with 12 points and 10 rebounds). One should take note that in a six-year span (2014-15 thru 2019-20), Hassan averaged 14.3 & 12.2. He's more than capable. As noted above, the Kings face an uphill climb to get into the "Play-In" tournament but the win at Dallas at least gives them a glimpse of a 'light at the end of the tunnel.' I won't look further than tonight's game but will lay the modest points in this one vs the sad-sack T-wolves, considering the Kings lost 116-106 at Minnesota back on April 5. A little "payback" works here. The Kings took a four-point lead into the 4th quarter last night and Timberwolves trailed by as many as six points early in the fourth. However, a late 14-0 run led them to outscore the Kings by a 35-17 margin. I talked about the Kings' excellent guard trio of Fox, Hield and Halliburton but they combined to shoot 10 of 38 (26.2%) from the floor. Meanwhile, Minnesota, which shoots 44.3% from the floor on the season (28th of 30 teams), shot 56.7%. I have to come back with the Kings again. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-21 | Suns v. 76ers +1 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Phi 76ers at 7:10 ET. The Phoenix Suns head to Philadelphia off a 128-127 overtime road win Monday over the Bucks, in a game that featured 24 lead changes. The Suns are 41-16 and the only team with a better record is the 43-15 Utah Jazz. However, no team owns a better ATS record than the Suns' 36-21 mark. The 76ers are 38-19 (top record in the East) and own one of the NBA's top home records at 22-6. Both teams are capable of challenging for an NBA championship, although for Philly to do so, the 76ers will have to stay healthy Phoenix owns one of the NBA's best backcourts in Booker (25.4-4.2-4.5) and Paul (15.7-4.6-8.8) and both were outstanding in the win over Milwaukee. Booker finished with 24 points, while Paul added 22 points and 13 assists. Center Ayton is an unsung hero, averaging 15.2 & 10.8 on the season with 31 double-doubles. SF Bridges (12.9 & 4.5) is a fourth double-digit scorer, while forwards Crowder (9.9 & 4.9), Johnson (9.8 & 3.2) and Saric (9.3 & 4.1) just miss. Philly played without Ben Simmons (illness) and Tobias Harris (knee) in Monday's 107-96 home loss to the Warriors (Steph ripped them for 49 points!). Both players are questionable for tonight's game but I'm expecting at least one of them to play. Harris (20.5 & 7.2) is having a strong season and Simmons (14.8-7.6-7.1) a typical All Star season Center Joel Embiid (29.9 & 11.2) had 28 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists in the loss to the Warriors and is a legitimate MVP candidate. However, his health is always a concern, as he's missed 18 games this season with a variety of injuries. Curry (12.1) typically starts with Simons in the backcourt plus the 76ers have excellent perimeter depth with guard Milton (13.4), Korkmaz (9.4) and even SF Green (9.7 & 3.8). All season long we've been dealing with the question, "Who's playing tonight?" and it's getting old. I'm hoping Harris and Simmons will play but I'll go with Philly either way, as the Suns are off a HUGE win in OT at Milwaukee, as they continue a tough five-game road trip. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-21 | Braves +115 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* IL Shocker of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 6:35 ET. The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row), However, as the Braves take the field tonight at Yankee Stadium to conclude a brief two-game IL series, they are just 7-10 after a 3-1 loos in the Bronx last night. The Yankees were favored to win the AL pennant entering 2020 but were just .500 after 42 games of the 60-game schedule. They were able to earn a wild card spot but after beating the Indians, lost in the ALDS to Tampa Bay in a deciding Game 5. Last night's win gives New York just a 6-10 record, leaving them in last-place in the AL East. Wednesday's pitching matchup will be Atlanta's Ian Anderson (0-0, 4.70 ERA) facing off against New York's Corey Kluber (0-1, 6.10 ERA). Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). He then made four playoff starts, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a KW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. Atlanta has won two of his three 2021 starts but he's yet to earn a decision and his numbers are NOT what they were in 2020 (4.70 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / .259 BAA). Kluber won 18 games three times and 20 games once, in a five-year stretch between 2014-18. He won two Cy Young awards in that span, in 2014 and 2018 (20-7). However, Kluber fractured his right arm after being hit by a line drive during a game against the Miami Marlins on May 1, 2019 and his season ended after just seven starts. Cleveland traded Kluber to the Texas Rangers on July 26, 2020, Kluber made his Rangers debut but lasted just 1 inning after experiencing shoulder tightness. New York signed Kluber to a one-year $11 million contract on January 27, 2021. He's had three starts in 2021, pitching four innings twice, while lasting just 2.1 innings in a third start. He's allowed 16 hits and 10 runs (seven earned) in his 10.1 innings for a 6.10 ERA and 2.23 WHIP. The Yankees snapped a FIVE-game losing streak last night, by scoring twice in the eighth for a 3-1 win. It marked just their THIRD win in their last 11 games. Kluber takes the mound on six days' rest but he's shown us NOTHING so far in his first three starts! Anderson is off to a so-so start but I believe this guy's "the real deal." He comes into this contest with some "good memories,", as his major-league debut came against the Yankees back on Aug 26 of last season, with him allowing just ONE run (on a solo HR) in six innings of a 5-1 Atlanta win. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-21 | Brewers v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on Mil/SD Over at 4:10 ET. The San Diego Padres were expected to give the LA Dodgers a run for their money' in 2021 but with a four-game series in LA looming Thursday through Sunday, the Padres are just 10-9, while the Dodgers are 14-4. The Padres were able to avoid a three-game sweep at home this past Sunday against the Dodgers with a 5-2 win but have now lost the first two contests of this three-game home series with the Brewers, scoring just ONE run in losses on Monday and Tuesday. The visiting 10-7 (.588) Milwaukee Brewers shoot for a three-game sweep Wednesday afternoon, just percentage points behind the 9-6 Cincinnati Reds (.600) in the NL Central. Milwaukee's team ERA is 2.75 (3rd) and its WHIP is 1.03 (2nd). San Diego's team ERA is 2.50 and its WHIP is 1.01, 1st in both categories in MLB. Adrian Houser (1-2, 3.14 ERA) will start for the Brewers, while Dinelson Lamet will make his 2021 debut for the Padres. Houser is a modest 8-15 in 60 career appearances (32 starts) with a 4.06 ERA and was a poor 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.14 ERA in three 2021 starts is solid but his 1.54 WHIP is troublesome. Lamet was 3-1 in 12 starts (Padres were 10-2) last season with a 2.09 ERA, an 0.86 WHIP and a .161 opponents' batting average (93-20 KW ratio). Clearly, Lamet's pitching helped the Padres end a 13-year postseason drought in 2020 but he left his final regular-season start clutching the elbow that underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018. He did not pitch in the 2020 playoffs and has been brought along slowly in spring training while rehabbing his elbow (no more surgery). This marks his first appearance since September 25th of last season. What to expect? This over/number is VERY low and I expect the Padres to avoid the home sweep by "getting to" the so-so Houser. I'm willing to play the over in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
My 8* Pitching Mismatch is on the Was Nationals at 4:05 ET. The StL Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals followed the franchise's first-ever World Series win in 2019 with a 26-34 record in 2020, finishing in last-place in the NL East. The Cards are 8-9 and the Nats 6-9 as the teams square off in the rubber match of this three-game series. Wednesday's starting pitchers are Carlos Martinez (0-3, 7.80 ERA) for St Louis and Max Scherzer (0-1, 2.37 ERA). St Louis turned Martinez into a starter and he won 42 games with ERAs of 3.01, 3.04 and .364 over a three-year span (2015-17). However, he was back in the bullpen in 2019 (all 48 appearances were in relief). He then made just five starts in 2020's shortened season and was just AWFUL, going 0-3 in five starts (Cards were 1-4) with a 9.90 ERA and 2.10 WHIP. Martinez has pitched exactly five innings in each of his three 2021 starts, allowing 13 ERs for a 7.80 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young award winner (2013, 2016 and 2017) but has yet to earn a win in three starts this season. He went six innings in his 2021 debut and allowed just four hits but all four were solo HRs. However, in his last two starts, he's pitched 13 innings, allowing five hits and one ER (0.69 ERA) with a 15-3 KW ratio. Scherzer is overdue to earn his first win of 2021, while Martinez looks completely 'lost.' Martinez pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in 2019 and in 2020 and 2021, has made just eight starts, allowing 35 ERs over 35 innings (9.00 ERA). He hasn't won a game as a starter since July 7, 2018!! Sounds like a pitching mismatch to me. Good luck...Larry |
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04-20-21 | Wolves v. Kings -4 | Top | 134-120 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on the Sac Kings at 10:10 ET. The Sacramento Kings were 22-25 entering their final game of March at San Antonio. That put then]m squarely in the 'hunt' for a spot in the West's "Play-In" tournament (seeds 7-10) to determine the West's No. 7 and 8 seeds. However, they were routed by the Spurs that night and that defeat was the first of a NINE-game losing streak. The Kings snapped that slide with a convincing fashion Sunday night in Dallas. The Kings never trailed in a 121-107 over the Mavericks. I'm not sure if the Kings can get back in the "Play-In" race, as they are currently 5 1/2 games back of the current No. 10 seed and only have 15 games remaining in the season. The Kings welcome the Minnesota Timberwolves to Sacramento for back-to-back home games on Tuesday and Wednesday. Minnesota is 15-43 on the season, tied with the Houston Rockets for the NBA's worst record. The T-wolves 'limp' into Sacramento on a SEVEN-game road losing streak without their second-leading scorer, Malik Beasley. Beasley is averaging 19.6 PPG but has been out since April 2 with a hamstring injury. Center Towns (24.7 & 10.8), PG Russell (19.0 & 4.9 APG) and the 2020 Draft's No. 1 selection, SF Anthony Edwards (18.1), will be on hand. However, as noted, the T-wolves have lost seven straight on the road by an average margin of 10.0 PPG. Sacramento's surprising win at Dallas was accomplished without center Holmes (14.1 & 8.9), who has missed the last three games because of a hamstring injury. PF Bagley (13.9 & 7.4) has been sidelined since March 15. De'Aaron Fox scored 30 points vs the Mavs and leads the Kings in scoring (25,2) and assists (7.1 APG). Hield (16.5 & 4.5) and rookie Halliburton (12.6 & 5.0 APG) join Fox to give Sacramento an excellent perimeter trio. SF Barnes added 24 points in the win over Dallas and continues to be a significant contributor, averaging 15.7 & 6.6 on the season. Center Hassan Whiteside (8.1 & 6.1) made just his second start of the season on Sunday (finished with 12 points and 10 rebounds). One should take note that in a six-year span (2014-15 thru 2019-20), Hassan averaged 14.3 & 12.2. He's more than capable. As noted above, the Kings face an uphill climb to get into the "Play-In" tournament but the win at Dallas at least gives them a glimpse of a 'light at the end of the tunnel.' I won't look further than tonight's game but will lay the modest points in this one vs the sad-sack T-wolves, considering the Kings lost 116-106 at Minnesota back on April 5. A little "payback" works here. Good luck...Larry |
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04-20-21 | Mets v. Cubs +121 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 121 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Ultimate Underdog is on the Chi Cubs at 7:40 ET. The New York Mets made the World Series back in 2015 (lost to KC 4-1) and had a wild card appearance the following year. However, they opened the 2021 season without a playoff appearance the previous four seasons, going just 26-34 in 2020. The Cubs were 35-25 (wild card team) in 2020's pandemic-shortened season, their FIFTH playoff appearance over the previous six years. The Mets and Cubs meet for the first time this season in this three-game series at Wrigley Field. The Mets come in 7-4, sitting in first-place in the NL East. In contrast, the Cubs' 6-9 record leaves them in last-place in the NL Central. The Cubs own MLB's worst team BA (.192) and are averaging just 3.40 RPG (28th of 230 teams). The Mets are hitting .246 as a team (8th) but has produced even fewer runs than the Cubs, averaging 3.08 RPG (last in all of MLB). Taijuan Walker (0-0, 2.61 ERA) makes his third start of 2021, looking for his first victory as a Met. Jake Arrieta is back with the Cubs and has opened 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA through three starts. Walker made 82 starts from 2015-107, going 28-28. However, he was limited to just 15 starts from 2018-20, with his Tommy John surgery being the main culprit to his limited action. The Mets signed him to a two-year contract in February and he's lasted 10.1 IP with a 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 12-5 KW ratio (Mets are 2-0). Arrieta began his career with Baltimore but his trade to Cubs gave his career 'life.' He won a Cy Young award in 2015 (22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP) and went 18-8 in 2016 when the Cubs finally won the World Series. He signed with Philly as a free agent but from 2018-20, was just 22-23 with a 4.36. He returned to the Cubs for 2021 and has looked pretty good. He has made 17 career starts against the Mets and owns a more than respectable 3.28 ERA. BOTH teams have struggled offensively (see above) but I see no reason for the Mets and Walker to be favored over the Cubs here in Wrigley, with Arrieta on the mound. Good luck...Larry |
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04-20-21 | White Sox v. Indians +104 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET. The Chicago White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 by going 35-25 and earning a wild card spot in the pandemic-shortened season. Cleveland was 35-25 in 2020 as well (also earned a wild card spot) but last year was the team's FOURTH postseason appearance in the previous five years. The Indians won three straight AL Central titles (2016-18) and only non-playoff year in that run was when they won 93 games in 2019. Note: The White Sox have only won more than 93 games TWICE this century, going 95-67 in 2000 and 99-63 in 2005, when they won the World Series (just third in franchise history and first since 1917!) However, Chicago was a 'sexy' preseason pick to win the AL pennant. Neither team is off to a good start, as the White Sox are 8-9 and the Indians are 8-7. The teams played a four-game series in Chicago from April 12-15, splitting the four games. The most notable game in last week's series was Wednesday when Carlos Rodon pitched a no-hitter in an 8-0 Chicago victory. He was within two outs of a perfect game but hit Roberto Perez on the back foot on an 0-2 pitch. Tonight's pitching matchup will be a 're-hook' from last Wednesday, with Rodon (2-0, 0.00 ERA) again squaring off against Zach Plesac (1-2, 5.27 ERA). Rodon came into the 2021 season having made 97 appearances (92 starts) with a 29-33 record and a 4.14 ERA. he had made just 11 appearances (nine starts) in 2019 and 2020, combined. We know about his no-hitter but note that in his first start of 2021, he pitched five scoreless innings, allowing just two hits with nine Ks (6-0 win at Seattle). Rodon should be confident, as in 16 career starts vs Cleveland, the White Sox may be just 8-8 but he owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. That's all well and good but following up a no-hit effort can be a VERY tough assignment. Plesac got himself in trouble with his teammates for ignoring COVID protocols in 2020 but he has all the stuff to be a solid MLB pitcher. He was 12-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 2019 and 2020 (team was 18-11 in his 29 starts) and prior to getting just TWO outs (allowed six ERs) opposite Rodon last Wednesday, had allowed just two ERs over 13 innings of his first two starts (1.38 ERA) with a 10-2 KW ratio. Note that "getting to" a right-handed starter has been the exception, NOT the rule for the Whit Sox in 2021. Including last Wednesday's outburst, Chicago is averaging only 3.7 RPG against righties in 11 tries. Plesac comes oy the winner in this rematch. Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-21 | Suns v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 128-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Bucks at 8:10 ET. One wondered if the Suns' 8-0 SU & ATS run in the NBA 'bubble' last season was a window into the future. That question has been emphatically answered, as the Suns will snap their 10-season playoff drought in the 2020-21 season. Phoenix is 40-16, the NBA's second-best record (Utah is 1 1/2 games ahead with the NBA's and West's top record) The Suns open a five-game road swing Monday night when they play the Eastern Conference's third-place team, the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks owned the NBA's best regular season record in each of the last two regular seasons (116-39 combined, for a .748 win percentage) but the current season has been erratic. Milwaukee trails the East's top team (Philly) by four games and is 2 1/2-games back of second-place Brooklyn. The Bucks welcome the Suns (owners of the NBA's best record at 17-7) to Fiserv Forum having lost FOUR consecutive home games! The Suns have won 11 of their last 13 games, although the Suns had a four-game winning streak snapped Saturday in a 111-85 loss to San Antonio (26-point blowout marks Phoenix's worst loss of the season). Phoenix has leaned on its backcourt duo of Booker (25.5-4.1-4.5) and Paul (15.6-4.6-8.7) all season but since scoring 29 points in an overtime win over NBA-leading Utah on April 7, Paul has not scored more than 13 points in Phoenix's SIX subsequent games. However, center Deandre Ayton has had at least 18 points in SIX of his seven games since April 5, before finishing with just eight against San Antonio. Ayton is averaging 15.1 & 10.8 on the season with 30 double-doubles. Milwaukee has EIGHT players contributing regularly, SIX averaging in double digits (Forbes just misses at 9.7). Giannis (28.4-112.-6.1) leads the way, followed by SF Middleton (20.1-6.1-5.6) and PG Holiday (17.2-4.5-5.5). The Bucks had scored 120 points or more over a three-game winning streak heading into their 128-115 loss Saturday against Memphis. Despite the defeat, all five Milwaukee starters scored in double figures. Two-time reigning Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo was productive in his second game back from a six-game absence due to a knee injury, getting 28 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Both teams are off losses but the Suns lost by 26. Normally, I'd stay away from going against Phoenix off that blowout loss but this contest HAS to be one the Bucks have 'circled.' Milwaukee NEEDS to get back on the winning track at home (four consecutive home losses are unacceptable!) plus the Bucks can't possibly forget their 125-124 loss in Phoenix back on Feb 10. Booker had 30 points and Chris Paul added 28 points and seven assists in that one, while Antetokounmpo scored 47 points. However, the Bucks' reserves finished with just 22 points. Bucks are the bet in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals +108 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET. The St Louis Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record (team's 7th postseason appearance in the last 10 years). The Washington Nationals made a memorable run in winning the 2019 World Series but followed by going just 26-34 in 2020, finishing last in the NL East. The pandemic-depleted Nationals opened the 2021 season 1-5 but have won four of their last seven (now 5-8). These two teams met in a three-game series April 12-14 in St Louis, with the Cards taking two of three. Monday is the opening contest of a three-game series in Washington, as Jack Flaherty (2-0, 4.11 ERA) makes his fourth start of the season for St. Louis, opposed by Washington's Joe Ross (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his third. Flaherty had an easy time of it last Tuesday at home vs the Nats, allowing a just ONE run on three hits over five innings (6-0 KW ratio). The Cardinals' offense exploded for 15 hits in a 14-3 rout, Ross took the mound the next day for Washington and spun six scoreless innings in a 6-0 Washington win. The Cards have high hopes for Flaherty but I'm not convinced he's a front-of-the-rotation starter. Neither is Ross but after electing not to play in 2020, he has not given up a SINGLE run in 11 innings over two starts. He's made four career starts vs the Cards, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA (team is 3-1), including that 6-0 win last Wednesday. He faces a St Louis team that ranks 12th in the NL with a .221 team batting average and 11th with a .304 on-base percentage. The Cards had a pair of offensive outbursts in the past week, but have also scored two or less runs in their last FOUR losses over a stretch of six games. Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-21 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Goin' Over Total is on SF/Phi Over at 7:05 ET. The Giants finished just ONE game out of a spot in the expanded playoffs during Gabe Kapler's first season after he replaced the retiring Bruce Bochy. San Francisco didn't make any major moves this offseason but got Buster Posey back behind the plate after he opted out of the 2020 season. San Francisco re-signed Kevin Gausman (more in a bit) and added Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Sanchez to bolster the rotation. Kinda brings back memories of Glavive, Maddux and Smoltz. Meanwhile, the Phillies opened the 2021 season seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The teams begin a three-game series tonight in Philadelphia, with the Giants checking in at 9-6 and the Phillies at 8-7. The Giants are 9-6, despite an offense that ranks 29th in runs scored (3.27 per game) and in team BA (.205). The Phillies' offense isn't much better, averaging 3.80 RPG (22nd) with a .236 BA (13th). So why go over? The fact is, I think BOTH starters are very vulnerable (Gausman for SF and Anderson for Phi). The Giants re-signed Gausman and one wonders what they expect from him. He entered the season having made 203 big league appearances (164 starts) with a 50-66 record and 4.31 ERA. He's NEVER had a winning season in eight years. He surprised me with two solid starts(13.2 IP / 2 ERs) in 2021 but at home vs Cincy (4/13), allowed five ERs in six innings. He's made four career starts vs Philly, going 0-3 (team is 1-3) with a 6.45 ERA. The 33-year-old Anderson finished 53-40 with a 3.94 ERA in 166 appearances with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers from 2014-19. He did go 29-16 with a 3.63 ERA from 2017-19 with Milwaukee but was awful for Toronto in 2020, with a 7.22 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .315 BAA in 10 appearances (seven starts). His first two starts of 2021 have come against the Mets and he's pitched just nine innings, allowing four ERs. He is 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA in nine starts (teams are 5-4) vs the Giants. I don't expect a slugfest but I do expect at least one starter (hopefully both) to struggle. It's Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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04-18-21 | Braves v. Cubs -131 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Chi Cubs at 7:08 ET. The Atlanta Braves won the NL East in 2020 (35-25), giving them THREE straight division titles. Atlanta then took a 3-1 lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS, before LA rebounded to win the series in seven games. The Chicago Cubs opened the current season having made the playoffs in FIVE of the last six seasons. Neither team has started well in 2021, as the Braves are 6-9 (last-place in the NL East) and the Cubs are 6-8 (4th-place in the five-team NL Central). The Braves won Friday's game but the Cubs crushed the Braves 13-4 on Saturday. The rubber match of this three-game series goes Sunday from Wrigley, as Bryse Wilson starts for Atlanta and Kyle Hendricks for Chicago. Atlanta has three starting pitchers sidelined, Max Fried (hamstring), Mike Soroka (shoulder) and Drew Smyly (forearm), so Wilson will make his season debut after being called up from the alternate site Saturday morning. From 2018-20 he made 15 appearances (seven starts) for Atlanta, posting a 5.91 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and .306 BAA. Hendricks went 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA (0.98 WHIP) back in 2016 and while he's never matched those numbers, he's been an effective starter. His ERAs have been 3.03, 3.33, 3.46 and 2.88 the last four seasons. He struggled in his 2021 debut (3 IP / 3 ERs) but on April 7, pitched six shutout innings vs Milwaukee (he took a no-decision). He was set to pitch Tuesday but experienced some COVID-19 symptoms and was held out. "He's feeling much better," manager David Ross said Saturday. "Unless something changes, Kyle will pitch Sunday." Hendricks owns a 2.46 ERA in five appearances (four starts) vs the Braves and I love the pitching matchup of him over the inexperienced Wilson. Chicago entered Saturday's game last in the majors in batting average (.166), on-base percentage (.267) slugging percentage (.307) and runners in scoring position (.084). However, the Cubs had 14 hits (including six HRs) in their 13-4 win over Atlanta on Saturday (run output was a season high). Cubs won't need that kind of output here with Hendricks on the mound but there is no reason NOT to expect them to 'beat up' Wilson. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-18-21 | Nets v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mia Heat at 3:40 ET. The Brooklyn Nets lost 123-117 Wednesday night at Philadelphia, falling ONE game of the 76ers for the East's No. 1 seed. The Nets showed off their depth Friday during a 130-115 win over the Charlotte Hornets. Brooklyn went 21-of-41 from three-point range, led by Joe Harris' 6-for-9 shooting from long distance. Harris scored 26 points while Kevin Durant had 25 points and 11 assists. The 38-18 Nets remain one game back of the 76ers as they visit Miami on Sunday. The reigning Eastern Conference champions have slipped to seventh place in the East, which would regulate them to the play-in tournament for the final two playoff spots. At 28-28, the Heat are 1 1/2-games back of the Knicks (East's No. 6 seed). The Heat return home having lost THREE in a row, including Friday night at the sad-sack Minnesota (T-wolves are just 15-42). James Harden (25.4-8.7-11.0 in 34 games with the Nets) has been sidelined since April 5 sidelined with a right-hamstring strain and LaMarcus Aldridge just recently announced his retirement due to a heart issue. Brooklyn also lost PG Chris Chiozza (hand surgery) and has been playing without Tyler Johnson (right-knee soreness). K.D. (28.17.0-5.4) is back (for now) but has 33 missed games this season plus one never quite knows Kyrie's (27.5-4.8-6.1) status day-to-day. Jimmy Butler (21.4-7.-7.2) had 30 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists at Minnesota in Friday's loss but it wasn't enough. Miami's starting lineup (all healthy here) featured Butler and Ariza (8.3 PPG in 15 games with the Heat and an excellent defender) in the frontcourt with Adebayo (19.0-9.2-5.2). Nunn (13.3) and Robinson (13.0) started at guard position with Herro (14.9 & 4.90 and Dragic (13.1 & 4.4 APG) coming off the bench. That's a VERY good seven-man rotation that is WAAY better than that of a .500 team. This home dog 'barks' LOUDLY! Good luck...Larry |
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04-18-21 | Blue Jays -101 v. Royals | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* AL Game of the Month is on the Tor Blue Jays at 2:10 ET. Toronto made back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but three losing seasons followed, before the Blue Jays surprised all going 32-28 in 2020. However, Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay 2-0 in a best-of-three series. The KC Royals made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 (lost Game 7 to the Giants) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but entered 2021 off five straight non-winning seasons. KC lost 194 games in 2018, 103 games in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020 (on pace of 93 losses in a 162-game schedule). The Blue Jays and Royals wrap up a four-game series today in KC, after splitting Saturday's doubleheader. KC won Thursday (7-5) and with victory here, can do something they haven't done in four seasons. That is, claim their first series win against the Blue Jays since 2017. In that same vein, the Royals are one of two teams in MLB (the Dodgers are the other) that has not lost a series. The Royals have won two series and split two series, with Sunday's outcome determining if they win or tie their third series of the season. The Royals are 8-5 (lead the AL Central), while the Blue jays are 7-8 in AL East, where the only team above .500 is the 10-4 Red Sox. Sunday's starters are Robbie Ray (0-1, 3.60 ERA) and Brady Singer (0-2, 6.48 ERA). Ray has spent most of his eight-year career with the Arizona Diamondbacks before getting traded to the Blue Jays during the 2020 season. His career record is 49-52, with a 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. That includes his "15 minutes of fame" in 2017, when he went 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA. The Jays could surely use a 'flashback' season from Ray in 2021. Ray made his season debut against the Yankees on April 12, giving up two ERs in five innings. His ONLY prior appearance against the Royals was in the final game of the 2017 season (1.2 IP / 1 ER). Singer was a rookie in 2020, making 12 starts with a 4-5 record, 4.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .220 BAA. Boy would the Royals like to see those kinds of numbers in 2021. So far, that hasn't come CLOSE to happening. Singer's off to an 0-2 start and he's EARNED that record! He's lasted just 8.1 IP with a 6.48 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and .333 BAA! Let me also note that the KC bats scored 25 runs in the Royals' first two wins of 2021 but since that time, KC is 6-5 while averaging 3.3 RPG. Ray gets the nod over Singer in the starting pitcher matchup, plus Toronto owns a MLB-best bullpen ERA of 2.05. In comparison, KC's bullpen ERA is DOUBLE that at 4.10. Toronto is the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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04-17-21 | Giants v. Marlins -123 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Marlins at 6:10 ET. The Giants' three World Series titles (2010, 2012 and 2014) seem like they came 20 years ago, although San Francisco just barely missed the postseason last year with a 29-31 record. The Miami Marlins entered last year's COVID-shortened season having posted the NL's worst record in both 2019 (57-105) and 2018 (63-98). The Marlins suffered a significant COVID break after the team's opening series and did not play from July 27 through Aug 4. However, the Marlins not only made up all of its missed games but at 31-29 (just two games better than San Francisco), made the expanded playoffs. The Giants opened the 2021 season 6-3 but last night's 4-1 loss in Miami drops them to 8-5. Not bad for a team that ranks 28th in spring (3.23 RPG) and 28th in team batting (.203). In contrast, the Marlins got off to a 1-6 start but have since won FIVE of their last six games, including last night's win. Saturday's starters are the Giants' Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.70 ERA) and the Marlins' Sandy Alcantara (0-1, 2.45 ERA). Both have pitched well so far but have gotten little support. Some remember Sanchez from the 2016 season when went 15-2 for Toronto while winning the American League ERA title (3.00). However, from 2016-19 he was just 10-23, as injuries plagued him. An MRI revealed a torn capsule in his right shoulder in August of 2019 and he missed the rest of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season. Sanchez agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the San Francisco Giants in February of 2021. He's pitched five innings in each of his 2021 starts (three ERs allows) but the Giants have lost 3-0 and 3-1. Miami's Alcantara has felt the pain of non-support in 2021, as well. He's got a 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and has held opponents to a .159 BAA in three 2021 starts. However, the Marlins scored just TWO runs in his first two starts combined (both team losses) and then gave him just ONE run vs Atlanta (6.1 IP / 3 ERs), before rallying after he left to win 5-3 in 10 innings. Alcantara is considered Miami's ace and is OVERDUE for some support. He shouldn't need much as he owns a 1.32 ERA in three career appearances against the Giants, including two starts. Both starts came in 2019, with him allowing one ER in 13 innings (0.69 ERA). Remember, he's facing a 'tooth-less' San Francisco offense (see above). Good luck...Larry |
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04-17-21 | Indians v. Reds -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Delight (IL Game of the Month) is on the Cin Reds at 4:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away. Cleveland arrived in Cincinnati on Friday at 7-5 on the season but having won 10 of its last 12 games against the Reds (since July 2018). As for the Reds, they averaged 9.5 runs, batted .320 and posted an OPS of 1.006 while going 5-1 against the Cardinals and Pirates in their season-opening homestand. However, they followed by totaling just 18 runs, getting shut out twice and batting .206 with a .612 OPS during a 2-4 road trip to Arizona and San Francisco. Glad to be back home, the Reds' Joey Votto hit a two-run HR to highlight a seven-run third inning, allowing Cincy to cruise to a 10-3 victory. Taking the mound in the second contest of this three-game series will be Cleveland's Triston McKenzie (0-0, 4.70 ERA) and Cincy's Sonny Gray (2021 debut). McKenzie is a promising 23-year-old, who is beginning his first full major league season. He made his first 2021 appearance in relief, then yielded a three-run HR but then allowed just one other hit while striking out six with two walks over four innings of a 4-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Monday, Gray had back-to-back 14-win seasons with the A's 2014 & 2015) but never built on that the next four seasons. However, when he signed with The Reds in 2019, he went 11-8 in 31 starts (teams was 19-12), posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.08. He got off to a great start in 2020 (1.94 ERA through the end of August) but was 'lit up' in four September starts, posting an 'ugly' 8.79 ERA. A strained back muscle has delayed Gray's first start here in 2021 but he's ready to go. He pitched at the club's alternate site in Louisville and threw 84 pitches in a simulated outing last weekend. "When you come back, you hit the ground running -- let's go," Gray told the Reds' official website. "That's kind of where we're at with that." He won't be on a pitch or inning limitation Saturday, according to the Reds. Gray owns a 3.15 ERA in 10 regular-season starts vs the Indians and takes the mound in front of a team that is 6-1 at home, averaging 9.6 runs and batting .321 with 16 HRs. In contrast, rookie McKenzie is 'begging' for some offensive support, as the Indians have totaled only 10 runs for their starting pitchers while the club has split its last six games. Reds Win! Reds Win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* AL Total of the Month is on Hou/Sea Over at 10:10 ET. The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 21-39 in 2020 but made the expanded postseason and went on a run. The Astros eliminated the Twins 2-0 in the wild card run, beat the A's 3-1 in the ALDS and then took the Rays to Game 7 in the ALCS, after losing the first three games of that series. Seattle went 89-73 in 2018 but followed by falling to 68-94 in 2019 and then went 27-33 in last season's 60-game schedule. However, Seattle entered 2021 with expectations that it could make a run at this year's postseason. The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners meet Friday at T-Mobile Park for the first of a three-game series. Houston opened the season 4-0 and 6-1 but 'limp' into Seattle on a FIVE-game losing streak that has them back at .500 (6-6). Seattle went 3-3 on a six-game homestand to begin the 2021 season but returns home off what was expected to be a nine-game road trip. Seattle lost the first game of the trip but while two games were postponed, the Mariners won FIVE of their last six games on the trip! Jose Urquidy will get the ball for Houston, while Yusei Kikuchi starts for Seattle. Urquidy has made 14 appearances (12 starts) for Houston the last two seasons, posting a 3.44 ERA. However, he's allowed six ERs over 10.1 innings (5.23 ERA) in his first two starts of 2021. Kikuchi has had two decent starts in 2021 but in his 43 career starts, owns an 8-15 record with a 5.30 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. In five career starts vs Houston, he's 0-2 (team is 1-4) with a 6.46 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. The Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 meetings in Seattle and 40-14 in their last 54 overall meetings with the Mariners. The Houston bats are due to explode and why not here vs Kikuchi? On the flip side, Seattle should have little trouble "getting to" Urquidy. It's Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-21 | Blazers -2 v. Spurs | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Por Blazers at 8:40 ET. Gregg Popovich's first full season as the Spurs' head coach was in 1997-98 and beginning with that year, he led San Antonio to 22 consecutive postseasons, while winning FIVE championships (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2014). That remarkable streak came to an end in last year's pandemic-shortened season and "Pop" and his Spurs could miss for a second straight year here in the 2020-21 season. The Spurs are currently 26-27, which places them 10th in the West. Seeds 8 through 10 are tightly-bunched (separated by only ONE game) but the underachieving Pelicans (dreaded No. 11 seed) are just two games back of San Antonio. Earning a No. 6 seed (which would avoid the Play-In route), seems like a 'bridge too far' (Spurs are 4 1/2-games back) but San Antonio should qualify for the "Play-In" tourney, giving Pop a chance to "coach'em up" and into a 7 or 8 seed. That current No. 6 seed is 31-23 Portland. The Blazers have been to SEVEN straight postseasons and need to hold off the 30-24 Mavs, for the last guaranteed spot, or fall into the "Play-In" format. Portland won its final four games of March to reach 29-18 but has opened April 2-5. The Trail Blazers have lost four of their last five games and are just 2-8 since the All-Star break against teams that currently have winning records. However, at 26-27, the Spurs are NOT a winning team. The Spurs missed an excellent opportunity to pick up a win on Wednesday, when they were outplayed by the Raptors, who were missing four key players on the second game of a back-to-back. The Raptors outrebounded San Antonio 54-42 and had 13 fast-break points and 48 points in the paint to the Spurs' 36. This is not "your father's Spurs" but they have SEVEN double digits scorers, led by DeRozan (21.1-4.3-7.2) plus the 7-1 Poeltl (8.0 & 8.0) has done a credible job replacing Aldridge. The Blazers are back healthy and Lillard (28.7-4.2-7.7) and McCollum (23.2-4.9-4.7) are now joined in the backcourt by Powell (16.7 PPG in 10 games since the trade). Both centers are now healthy, Kanter (12.1 & 11.9) and Nurkic (9.2 & 7.6), plus Anthony (13.3) has been excellent off the bench all season. Portland needs to get back on the winning track in a hurry, as the Mavs are lurking plus with Murray out for the season, catching the Nuggets (Portland trails Denver by just three games) is NOT of the question. The Blazers will surely remember getting CRUSHED 125-104 at home by the Spurs back in Portland on Jan 18. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-21 | Indians v. Reds -113 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away. Cleveland arrives in Cincinnati having just split a four-game road series against the Chicago White Sox. One day after being no-hit by Carlos Rodon, the Indians bounced back with a 4-2 victory on Thursday and are currently off to a 7-5 start. Cincinnati averaged 9.5 runs, batted .320 and posted an OPS of 1.006 while going 5-1 against the Cardinals and Pirates, its season-opening homestand. However, the Reds followed by totaling just 18 runs, getting shut out twice and batting .206 with a .612 OPS during a 2-4 road trip to Arizona and San Francisco. Cleveland lefty Logan Allen (1-1, 2.70 ERA) will take the mound at Cincinnati, with the Reds countering with Jeff Hoffman (1-1, 3.86 ERA). Allen entered the 2021 season with just 12 appearances (four starts) and a 5.40 ERA. Hoffman spent his first five seasons with Colorado (68 appearances / 38 starts), going 10-16 with a 6.39 ERA. Both are making their third starts of 2021 and both have been fine (see stats above). The good news for Cleveland supporters (and bad news for Cincy fans) is the Reds have totaled just 27 runs, hit .196 as a team and struck out 121 times while losing 10 of their last 12 games with the Indians (since July 2018). However, I'm not so sure the past means all that much here. The Reds 'turned a corner' last season and I feel as Hoffmann can become a solid member of the rotation now that he's away from Coors Field. Remember, the Reds averaged 9.5 RPG in its opening six-game home stand (see more stats above) and I expect Cincy's bats to 'wake up' vs the virtually untested Allen. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Phi 76ers at 7:10 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers are riding a SEVEN-game winning streak as they visit Philadelphia tonight to take on the 76ers. LA's most recent victory was a gritty 100-98 come-from-behind win on the road over the Detroit Pistons, when Reggie Jackson made the game-winning jumper with 2.3 seconds left. Even more notably, the Clippers played without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverley and Marcus Morris. The Clippers' winning streak gives them a 39-18 record, having climbed with two games of the Suns and three games of the top-seed in the West, the Jazz. The Clippers have opened a three-game margin on the Nuggets (now without Murray for the rest of the season), a 4 1/2-game margin over the Lakers (still without LBJ and A.D.) and 6 1/2-game bulge on the Blazers. Philadelphia (38-17) took over the top of the Eastern Conference with a 123-117 victory over the Brooklyn Nets (37-18) on Wednesday, Joel Embiid finished with 39 points and 13 rebounds and over his last five games has averaged 30.2 points and 9.0 rebounds. The 76ers own a modest three-game winning streak but there is NOTHING modest about the team's 20-7 record since mid-Feb or its 21-5 home record (only the 25-3 Jazz are better). Here's the rub. Kawhi missed the Detroit game with a sore right foot, while Ibaka continues to deal with a lingering lower-back issue. Beverley is out for the next month with a broken left hand, and the Clippers chose to give George and Morris a day of rest. Attempting to guess what lineup LA head coach Tyronn Lue will use tonight is no better than a crap shoot. What we KNOW is this. Joel Embiid did not play in the first game between the teams due to a knee injury, as the Clippers won 122-122 in Doc Rivers first game against the team he coached the previous SEVEN seasons back on March 27. Embiid will play here and he's looking every bit the part of a league MVP. The ESPN cameras will be watching and expect Rivers and Embiid to deliver a little 'payback' in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -135 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The StL Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. Meanwhile, the Phillies opened the 2021 season seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Cards opened 5-2 but have lost four of five since, while the Phillies began the current season winning FIVE of six at home vs the Braves and Mets but then lost FIVE of six on the road against those same two NL East rivals. Carlos Martinez (0-2, 6.30 ERA) will make his third start this season for the Cards, while the Phillies counter with Zach Eflin (0-0, 3.46 ERA), who is also making his third start of 2021.St Louis turned Martinez into a starter and he won 42 games with ERAs of 3.01, 3.04 and .364 over a three-year span (2015-17). However, he was back in the bullpen in 2019 (all 48 appearances were in relief). He made just five starts in 2020's shortened season and was just AWFUL, going 0-3 in five starts (Cards were 1-4) with a 9.90 ERA and 2,10 WHIP (you read that right!). In two starts in 2020, he's got a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. I'm no real fan of Eflin (29-33 with a 4.60 ERA in his career) but he's had two decent starts vs the Braves to open 2021 (3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP). My play here is more focused on Philly returning home where the team is 5-1. Thursday's rainout against the Mets meant the Phillies avoided Jacob deGrom and now they get Martinez, who has lost his mojo. The Cards had an "off day" Thursday but here's some bad news, the Cards are just 10-21 the last three seasons after an off day. Good luck...Larry |
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04-15-21 | Red Sox v. Twins -148 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
My 8* Afternoon Delight is on the Min Twins at 1:10 ET. The Red Sox won the 2018 World Series but missed the postseason in 2019. Then game the COVID-shortened 2020 season in which Boston went 24-36. How bad was last year? The last time the Red Sox owned a winning percentage worse than its .400 from 2020 was 1965, when Boston went 62-100 (.383). The Red Sox opened the 2021 season with THREE straight losses while scoring just FIVE runs but Boston has now won NINE in a row after sweeping the Twins in Wednesday's doubleheader (Boston is averaging 7.4 RPG during its current winning streak). As for Minnesota, the Twins entered the current season off three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons, winning the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020. The Twins started 3-1 this season but will take the field Thursday afternoon at 5-7, leaving them in last-place in the AL Central. More notably , Minnesota has dropped FIVE straight home games for the first time since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. The Twins are just 1-for-24 with RISP in their three straight losses to the Red Sox. Garrett Richards (0-1, 10.29 ERA) gets the ball for Boston, while Michael Pineda (1-0, 1.64 ERA) will start for Minnesota. Richards is in his 11th season, the first eight in which he pitched for the Angels. He had just one memorable season (13-4, 2.61 ERA in 2014) with LA and his 2018 was ended with Tommy John surgery. He signed with SD in 2019 and returned from surgery to make just three starts (8.31 ERA). he was healthy in 2020 but in 14 appearances (10 starts) was just 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA. He signed a one-year deal with Boston for 2021 (a mere $10 million) and has two starts (both against Baltimore) His 2021 debut was ugly (6 ERs in 2 IP) but he improved in his second (2 ERs in 5 IP). Pineda's career has been interrupted by injury on a semi-regular basis but he seemed to find a 'home' with Minnesota in 2019. He was 11-5 with a 4.01 ERA before he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. His suspension ran into 2020, when he made five starts, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA (Twins were 5-0). He has opened the 20102 season with two good outings, allowing just two ERs over 11 innings (1.64 ERA / 0.91 WHIP). Boston's win streak will end and why not here? After all, the Twins owned MLB's best home record in 2020 going 24-7. Also note that the Twins saw the return of third baseman Josh Donaldson from a hamstring injury he suffered on Opening Day at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Donaldson was activated from the injured list just before the second game and singled, walked and scored Minnesota's lone run. Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-21 | Knicks v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 116-106 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NO Pelicans at 8:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis Wednesday morning by 10:00 ET. |
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04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Miami Marlins entered last year's COVID-shortened season having posted the NL's worst record in both 2019 (57-105) and 2018 (63-98). The Marlins suffered a significant COVID break after the team's opening series and did not play from July 27 through Aug 4. However, the Marlins not only made up all of its missed games but at 31-29, made the expanded playoffs. Meanwhile, the Braves won the NL East in 2020 (35-25), giving them THREE straight division titles. Atlanta then took a 3-1 lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS, before LA rebounded to win the series in seven games. Miami opened the current season 2-6 but has won the first two contests of this four-game series in Atlanta, after pounding out 17 hits in a 14-8 win last night. Adam Duvall drove in seven runs against his former Atlanta teammates with four hits, including two HRs. He tied a Marlins record, becoming the sixth player to drive in seven runs. Atlanta opened the season 0-4 but then won four in a row. However, after losing 7-6 at home to Philly last Sunday night, the Braves enter this contest on a three-game slide. Nick Neidert gets the ball for Miami in Wednesday's game, opposed by Atlanta's Charlie Morton. Neidert made just four relief appearances in 2020 (his first in the majors), pitching a total of only 8.1 innings with a 5.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and an opponent's BA of .313. His first appearance of 2020 was a start at the Mets (Apr 8) in which he allowed just one EWR in 4.1 innings (no-decision in a 3-2 Miami win). The Braves signed Morton to a one-year contract and hope that Morton can deliver like he did for Houston (14-7 and 15-3 in 2017 and 2018) and for Tampa Bay, when he went 16-6 in 2019. Morton was just 2-2 in nine starts in 2020 but he then led the Rays to wins in his first three playoff starts, allowing just one ER over 15.2 IP (0.57 ERA), before losing Game 3 of the World Series. He was out-pitched by Wheeler (seven scoreless innings with one hit allowed a 10-0 KW ratio) in a 4-0 Philly win back on April 3 but he rebounded on April 9 in an 8-1 win over Philly and Wheeler (6 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER). Hard to make much of case for Neidert (just his second career start), while the veteran Morton faces a Miami lineup coming off a 17-hit, 14-4un outburst on Tuesday. Morton has made 13 career starts vs Miami, going 7-4 with a 3.77 ERA (teams are 8-5). Also note that even after back-to-back wins, the Marlins are just 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in Atlanta. Lay the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-21 | Reds v. Giants +105 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Delight is on the SF Giants at 3:45 ET. The Cincinnati Reds won 3-0 Monday night in San Francisco but the Giants bounced back with a 7-6 victory last night. The teams meet in the rubber match of this three-game series this afternoon at Oracle Park. The Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs. The Giants' three World Series titles (2010, 2012 and 2014) seem like they came 20 years ago, although San Francisco just barely missed the postseason last year with a 29-31 record (pretty similar to the Reds). The teams enter this contest with identical 7-4 records, with Tyler Mahle (1-0, 2.00 ERA) taking the mound for the Reds to face former-Red Johnny Cueto (1-0, 2.51 ERA). Mahle is in his fifth season but has shown little in his two busiest years, going 7-9 (23 starts) with a 4.98 ERA in 2018 and 3-13 (25 starts) with a 65.14 ERA in 2019. He's lasted just nine innings in his two starts this season (allowed just two ERs) but the Reds have won both. Cueto pitched 7 1/2 seasons for the Reds before being dealt to Kansas City in 2015. He signed with the Giants in 2016 and went 18-5 (2.79 ERA) that season but from 2017 through his first two starts of 2021, he has been healthy enough to make just 52 starts, going 15-15! The Giants have won Cueto's first two starts in 2021. He's only faced his former team three times but in his most recent two starts, he's allowed four ERs in 15 innings (2.40 ERA) with the Giants winning both games. As noted above, both teams are 7-4, with each team being strong at home (Reds 5-1 / Giants 4-1). This is a quick turnaround from a night game to an afternoon affair but San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler employed what he called a "line change," replacing four of his eight starting position players as Tuesday's game went along. I'm "all over" the home team and Cueto, who keeps his former team in check. Good luck...Larry |
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04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error of the Month is on the Por Blazers at 10:10 ET. The Boston Celtics entered their Sunday game in Denver having won FOUR of five but those four wins had come over Houston and Minnesota (currently tied for the NBA's worst record at 14-4) plus wins over the Hornets and Knicks (two teams that are basically .500 teams). The loss came at home to Philly. The Denver game was a test and I guess the Celtics 'passed.' However, Boston was down 14 points with just over 14 minutes left in that game, before outscoring the Nuggets 40-8. Kudos to Boston but what happened to the Nuggets, who followed Sunday's collapse by allowing Curry to score 53 points last night in a loss at Golden St? Portland is dealing with its own issues after sustaining four losses in the last six games, with those four defeats during the stretch coming by an average of 15.8 points! Tatum (25.7-7.1-4.2) and Brown (24.3-5.8-3.5) have been terrific all season plus guards Walker (17.6 & 5.0 APG) and Smart (13.4 & 5.6 APG) have put injuries behind them. Theis (9.5 & 5.2) was moved at the trade deadline, so it's Williams (9.5 & 5.2) and Thompson (8.0 & 7.0) sharing center duties. Lillard (28.7-4.2-7.6) is having another All Star season plus fellow guard McCollum (23.5-3.8-4.6) and center Nurkic (9.3 & 7.5) are back after missing significant time with injuries. Antony (13.1) has been solid all season off the bench, center Kanter (12.1 & 11.9) filled in for Nurkic when he was out and continues to play well since his return. PF Covington (9.1 & 6.6) and SF Jones (7.7 & 4.1)) were added prior to the season and have been solid. Tent (15.0) was moved at the trade deadline but in return the Blazers got Powell, who has averaged 16.3 points in his nine games as a Blazers. Boston's 28-26 (East's No. 7 seed) but is just ONE game back of the East's No. 4 seed (Atlanta). Portland is 31-22 (No. 6 seed), two games up on Dallas and 3 1/2 up on Memphis. Ahead of them are the Lakers (by 1 1/2-games) and the Nuggets (by 2 1/2-games). I think the Blazers are undervalued here and expect a solid win but any kind of a win will "get the cash" with this pointspread. Good luck...Larry |
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04-13-21 | Cubs +130 v. Brewers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 130 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 7:40 ET. The Cubs and Brewers (NL Central rivals) meet again in Milwaukee on Tuesday, after the Brewers won 6-3 last night in the first of this three-game series. The Cubs have now lost FIVE of their last six, scoring three or less runs in five of those six. In contrast, the Brewers have won five of their last six games, having scored 24 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in FIVE of their last six games. The pitching matchup features the teams' respective aces, Chicago's Kyle Hendricks and Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff. Hendricks has yet to win in his previous two starts of 2021 (he's 0-1 and the team 0-2), as has Woodruff. However, the Brewers are 2-0 in Woodruff's starts with him posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and a 13-2 KW ratio. These two squared off against each other on April 7 in Wrigley, with BOTH pitching well. Hendricks threw six scoreless innings (6-1 KW ratio), while Woodruff pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit with an 8-0KW ratio. At the moment, the Cubs are struggling (can't find their offense) while the Brewers are playing well. However, in this quick "re-hook," I'll side with Hendricks, who in 24 career starts (most vs any opponent) owns a 2.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP vs Milwaukee. The Cubs will break out of their batting slump sometime and I believe Hendricks won't need too much here to earn the "W." Good luck...Larry |
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04-13-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET. The Yankees and the Blue Jays continue their three-game series in Toronto on Tuesday, after the Yankees won 3-1 Monday behind Gerrit Cole's six-inning effort (allowed just one run on three hits and eight Ks). Kyle Higashioka did all the damage the Yankees needed with two HRs and three RBI, while the Jays managed just five hits in falling to 4-6 (Yankees are 5-5). Taking the mound on Tuesday will be New York's James Taillon and Toronto's Hyun-Jin Ryu Taillon's first season was 2016 with Pittsburgh and in 2018, went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts (Pirates were 20-12). Taillon's 2019 season was cut short due to a forearm injury and he was shut down for the remainder of the season on August 2 to undergo surgery. He was 2–3 with a 4.10 ERA in 7 starts. His 2019 surgery to repair a flexor tendon as well as UCL revision led him to miss all of 2020. The Pirates traded Taillon to the New York Yankees in January of 2021. He lasted 4.2 innings in his 2021 debut (allowed two ERs) but had a 7-0 KW ratio. Ryu pitched for the Dodgers from 2013 through 2019, winning 14 games in three different seasons. The best of those was in 2019 when he went 14-5 with a 2,32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He had a strong 2020 season for Toronto, going 5-2, 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 12 starts (team was 9-3). Toronto made back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but three losing seasons followed, before the Blue Jays surprised all going 32-28 in 2020. However, Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay 2-0 in a best-of-three series. Ryu was Toronto's ace last season (see results above) and he's had two solid outings in 2021, allowing four ERs over 12.1 innings (2.92 ERA) with a 12-1 KW ratio. The Yankees were just 3-7 on the road vs lefties in 2020 (averaged only 3.1 RPG) and entered last night 0-3 vs lefties in 2021, averaging 3.3 RPG. The Yankees did win vs lefty Robbie Ray on Monday but Ray allowed just a two-run HR in five innings. What Ryu is missing so far in 2021 is a "W" and with some help from the Toronto bats, gets his first win of 2021 right here! Good luck...Larry |
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04-12-21 | Indians v. White Sox -131 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET. The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, The Indians are 5-3 to open the 2021 season but will spend this week on the road, with four games in Chicago against the White Sox (Mon-Thu) and then three games at Cincinnati. The White Sox are just 4-5 to open 2021 but have only played twice at home (1-1). However, the Indians won EIGHT of 10 meetings with the White Sox in 2020. Cleveland enters on a four-game winning streak after concluding a three-game series of the Detroit Tigers with a 5-2 victory on Sunday. Chicago lost three of its first four games but then went 12-for-39 (.307) with runners in scoring position in winning three of its next four contests. However, the White Sox blew a pair of one-run leads on Sunday in taking a 4-3 loss in 10 innings against the Kansas City Royals. Cleveland's rotation owns a 2.70 ERA and will open this series with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 2.45 ERA). Carlos Rodon (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will get the ball for Chicago. McKenzie went 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in six starts last season (Indians were 3-3) and began this season by allowing a run, two hits and four walks in 3.2 innings during last Monday's 3-0 loss to Kansas City. The Indians have said that they will monitor McKenzie's workload closely since he went two years without pitching due to injuries and threw just 33.1 innings last season. Carlos Rodon missed the majority of last season due to left shoulder soreness but opened 2021 with five scoreless innings (allowed just two hits) in last Monday's 6-0 win in Seattle (he settled for a no-decision). Rodon has made 15 career starts vs Cleveland and while he's just 5-4 (team is 7-8), he' owns an excellent 2.83 ERA. The Indians averaged just 3.9 RPG in 13 contests vs left-handers and I'm backing Rodon and the White Sox in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the StL Cards at 7:45 ET. The Washington Nationals made a memorable run in winning the 2019 World Series but followed by going just 26-34 in 2020, finishing last in the NL East. The pandemic-depleted Nationals of 2021 have opened 1-5 (.167), giving them the worst record in MLB. Washington will try to snap a five-game losing streak when they visit the 5-4 St Louis Cardinals for a three-game series starting Monday. The Cardinals know all about dealing with COVID-19, as the Cards were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season. However, the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record Erick Fedde (0-1, 27.00 ERA) of Washington and John Grant (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will each make their second starts of the season in Monday's game. Faded is in his fifth season with Washington and in 47 appearances (35 starts), is just 8-12 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He allowed six runs (five earned) of a 7-6 loss to the Atlanta Braves on April 7. His only career start vs St Louis came back in 2018 when he allowed four ERs over five innings of an 11-8 loss (he got a no-decision). Gant is in his sixth season but he's started just 29 times in his 135 career appearances. Gant didn't allow an earned run in four innings during a 4-2 victory over Miami on April 6 (got a no-decision). His most recent starts vs Washington came in 2018 (two), as he allowed just one ER over 9.2 innings (0.93 ERA) with the Cards winning both games. The Nats are a mess right now, having lost FIVE in a row and enter having averaged 2.83 RPG (28th of 30 teams). Washington was just 15-28 vs righties last season, including 6-14 on the road, averaging 3.9 RPG. The losing continues for Washington, as St Louis wins "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-12-21 | 76ers v. Mavs +3.5 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Ultimate Underdog is on the Dal Mavericks at 7:40 ET. MVP candidate Joel Embiid recently missed 10 games with a bone bruise on his left knee but the 76ers went 7-3 without him. Embiid (29.4 & 11.1) is back and the 76ers are tied with the Nets for the East's best record (36-17, three games up on the Bucks. Dallas ended a three-year playoff drought last season, led by another potential MVP contender, Luka Doncic. The Mavs were 43-32 (.573) last season but lost in the first round of the playoffs. Much was expected from Dallas this season but at 29-23 (.558), the Mavs are currently the West's No. 7 seed and have surely not overachieved. They are 5 1/2 games up on the West's No. 11 seed (getting into the "Play-In" round which includes the 7-10 seeds seems assured) but they desperately want to catch the 6th-seeded Blazers, who lead them by 1 1/2 games. Joining Embiid in Philly's starting lineup are typically PF Harris (20.6 & 7.3), SF Green (9.8 & 3.7) plus guards Simmons (15.0-7.7-7.0) and Curry (12.3), guard Milton (13.7) has been a consistent scorer off the bench plus veteran center Howard has played all 53 games, averaging 6,8 & 8,3 in only 17 minutes. Guard Korkmaz (9.0) has been a nice surprise and just added 20 points and five steals in Philly's 117-93 win at Oklahoma City on Saturday (Embiid led with 27 points and nine rebounds). Dallas has been streaky all season and hopes to avoid its third loss in four games when hosting the Sixers tonight. The Mavericks fell 119-117 to the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, as DeMar DeRozan hit the winning jumper with 0.5 seconds remaining. Kristaps Porzingis (20.7 & 9.4) paced the Mavericks with 31 points and 15 rebounds while Doncic (28.5-8.1-8.7) added 29 points and seven assists. Doncic has 25 or more points in 11 of his last 13 games. Fellow guards Josh Richardson (12.5) had 16 points and Jalen Brunson (12.8-3.5-3.4) had 11 against the Spurs. Swingman Hardaway (16.2) has mostly come off the ne[-bench, with the Mavs' preferred starters at the forward position are Finney-Smith (8.9 & 5.5) and Kleber (7.6 & 5.5). Here's the rub. The Mavs can play with any team and I view them as a VERY 'live' home dog in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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04-12-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -2 | Top | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NY Knicks at 7:40 ET. The Lakers are coming off their best performance since losing both A.D, and LBJ to injuries, Davis (22.5 & 8.4) has missed 25 straight contests due to a strained right calf and James (25.4-7.9-7.9) has missed 11 straight games with a right ankle sprain. The Lakers are 12-13 since Davis last played on Feb.14 at Denver, while they are 5-6 in the 11 games that LBJ has missed. The 33-20 Lakers (No. 5 seed in the West) will be playing their 12th game without the duo, when they visit MSG against the Knicks. New York is 27-27 on the season (East's No. 8 seed) and the Knicks are playing meaningful games in April for the first time in nearly a decade. LA shot 50.5% (including 19 of 34 on threes) in a 126-101 rout over the Nets in Brooklyn on Saturday. Kyle Kuzma (12.6 & 6.8) has a left calf strain, Wesley Matthews (right Achilles tendon tightness) and Marc Gasol (left hamstring soreness) all sat out on Saturday, plus Dennis Schroder (15.2-3.5-5.3) ejected early in the third quarter. Somehow, the Lakers placed a season-high eight players into double figures while tying a season best with 19 three-pointers. Recently acquired Andre Drummond led the way with 20 points and 11 rebounds in his second game back from sitting out three games with a toe injury. The other four starters (Schroder, Talen Horton-Tucker, Markieff Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) all scored at least 14 points. The Knicks are back in action about 21 hours after holding on for a 102-96 win over the visiting Toronto Raptors on Sunday night. It was New York's second straight win decided by six points or less, following consecutive two-point road losses to the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets and a stretch of FIVE losses in six games. PF Julius Randle (22.8-10.7-6.0) and SF Barrett (17.6 & 5.8) have starred all season for the Knicks. Randle scored eight of his 26 points in the fourth quarter vs the Raptors, while RJ Barrett finished with 19 points, including a clutch three-pointer with 34.9 seconds left. That came two nights after hitting the tie-breaking three-pointer in overtime to beat the Memphis Grizzlies. The Knicks are 'flying under the radar' with FIVE more players averaging between 9.7 and 13.1 PPG. Both PGs are healthy right now in Rose (13.1 & 4.0 APG) and Payton (11.8 & 3.4) plus three SGs are contributing. Burks adds 12.6 & 4.4, Quickly 12.0 and Bullock 9.7. Not sure where LA's 25-point win over the Nets came from but it's likely that Kuzma, Matthews and Gasol will all miss on Monday. The Knicks are a scrappy bunch and catch the Lakers in a HUGE 'letdown' situation off the win vs Brooklyn. Good luck...Larry |
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04-11-21 | Reds -110 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 4:10 ET. The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Sunday at Chase Field in the rubber match of this three-game series. Cincinnati took two of three to open the season vs the Cardinals, then swept the Pirates in their second series. After a 6-5 win on Friday, the Reds coughed up five runs in the fifth inning on the way to an 8-3 loss. Arizona opened the season losing THREE of four in San Diego and then TWO of three in Colorado. As just noted, the Diamondbacks suffered a one-run loss on Friday, before their bats 'warmed' with eight runs on 10 hits yesterday. Sunday's pitching matchup features the Reds' Jose De Leon and Arizona's Luke Weaver. De Leon is in his fifth season but has shown little promise. However, he had a solid outing in his 2021, pitching five innings in the Reds' 5-3 win over Pittsburgh, allowing two runs on solo HRs. Luke Weaver started with St Louis (2015-17) and was 15-17 with a 4.79 ERA. He showed promise in his first season with Arizona (2019), going 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts. However, Weaver was just plain AWFUL in 2020, going 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA, as the D'backs lost 10 of his 12 starts and his 'sorry' ERA was matched by his 1.56 WHIP. His 2021 debut saw him allow three ERs in 5.2 innings at Coors Field, as Arizona beat the Rockies 10-8. 'Leaning' on De Leon is NOT the key to this play and although it's easy to make a case going against Weaver, that is not the key either (but it DOESN'T hurt). The Reds ended a six-year playoff drought last season by going 31-19 and this year's team owns a lineup that will have them competing for a postseason spot again in 2021. The Reds lead all of MLB with a .312 team BA (only THREE other teams are hitting .280-plus), as well as in runs scored with 66 (8.25 per game). Compare that with Arizona, which owns a team BA of .214 (basically 100 points LOWER than Cincy) and averages just 4.75 RPG. It's Cincinnati bats over the Arizona bats, as the Reds open the season with three straight series' wins and move to 7-2. Watch out NL Central! Good luck...Larry |
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04-11-21 | Celtics v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 105-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Game of the Month is on the Den Nuggets at 3:10 ET. The Boston Celtics were expected to be among the East's best teams but despite wins in four of their last five games, the Celtics are just 27-26. They are NINE games back of Philadelphia and Brooklyn (both are 36-17) and 5 1/2-games back of Milwaukee (No. 3 seed). Boston finds itself in a life-and-death struggle to avoid the NBA's new "Play-In" tournament, which will feature the 7-10 seeds. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won EIGHT straight and 17 of their past 20, including the last three without second-leading scorer Jamal Murray, who is sidelined with right-knee soreness. Denver is currently 34-18 but the top of the Western Conference is loaded with strong teams (Jazz, Suns, Clippers and the Lakers, when they get healthy. Boston's "Big 3" these days are Tatum (25.7-7.0-4.3), Brown (24.3-5.7-3.5) and Walker (17.7 & 5.0 APG). The Celtics rallied at home to beat Minnesota in overtime on Friday night, led by a career-high 53 points from Jayson Tatum. Team-leader Smart (13.4 & 5.6 APG) missed 19 games but has been back since the All Star break plus PF/C Thompson (8.0 & 6.9) had been out since mid-March, before returning for Boston's last two games. Theis (9.5 & 5.2) was moved at the trade deadline but the good news has been that Robert Williams averaged 11.2 & 9.3 when Thompson was sidelined. Fournier (19.7 PPG while with Orlando) has averaged 11.5 PPG in his four games with Boston. Denver was just 17-17 on the morning of Feb 26 but has since gone 17-3 to move up in the West to the No. 4 seed. Nikola Jokic (26.7-10.9-8.8) has put himself into strong contention for the MVP Award this year and had his 13th triple-double of the season and 54th of his career in Friday's 121-119 win over the San Antonio Spurs. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. have benefited from Jokic's court vision. Porter (17.1 & 7.6) had 22 points and 10 rebounds in Friday's win, the fifth time in the past seven games he has recorded a double-double. Gordon (acquired from Orlando before the trade deadline) is averaging 12.3 & 3.7 in his seven games with Denver (all wins). Denver's winning streak has enabled coach Mike Malone to sit Murray (21.3-4.0-4.8). Swingman Barton (12.9-4.2-3.2) has only missed THREE games this season and backup PG Morris (10.6) is back after being out since mid-March, averaging 12.0 PPG in his four games since April 4. Veteran PF Millsap ((9.2 & 4.8) has been solid, while PF Green (8.4 & 5.2) and SG Dozier (6.9 & 3.8) have contributed all season off the bench. Denver is a complete team and should remember losing 112-99 at Boston back on Feb 16 and Boston's upcoming three-game road trip (at Denver, Portland and the Lakers) will be quite a challenge for a Boston team that has come nowhere its 2020-21 expectations. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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04-11-21 | Royals v. White Sox -134 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -134 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 2:10 ET. The Kansas City Royals opened the season 2-0 by scoring 25 runs in their first two games against the Rangers, However, the Royals have lost THREE of four while scoring a total of just eight runs after a 6-0 loss Thursday at Chicago (KC has scored FIVE runs in the team's three losses). The Chicago White Sox opened by losing THREE of four in Anaheim vs the Angels but have rebounded to win THREE of four. Both teams are 4-4 after a rare Friday off and a Saturday postponement. Mike Minor (1-0, 6.00 ERA) starts for KC and Dylan Cease (0-0, 5.79 ERA) for Chicago. Minor had a couple of solid seasons for Texas in 2018 (12-8) and 2019 (14-10) but was 0-5 (5.60 ERA) in seven starts for the Rangers in 2020 when he was traded to Oakland, where in five appearances (four starts) he was 1-1 with a 5.48 ERA. Naturally, KC signed him to a two-year deal for $18 million (can't make this stuff up). Minor picked up the victory in his start with KC, despite allowing four ERs in his first three innings, before settling down with three more shutout innings as the Royals came from behind to defeat the Texas Rangers 11-4. Two White Sox starters have ERAs of 0.00, while the other three are over 4.00. Cease's ERA is 5.79 ERA after getting no decision in a 7-4 loss to the Angels. He struggled in the first inning of his April 4 start, allowing a 451-foot HR to Shohei Ohtani, before settling down. He finished allowing three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings. Cease has made 26 starts for Chicago the last two seasons (9-11) with a 5.00 ERA. However, my play on Chicago has little to do with Cease. The Royals have only had one close game (decided by one or two runs) in their six decisions. They scored in double figures in their first two games and secured their third win with a 3-0 shutout. Yet, they have scored a total of five runs in their three losses. Meanwhile, the White Sox's four wins have come by at least four runs, with three of them coming by six runs. That's in stark contrast to their four losses, which have come by one, two, three and four runs. More notably, Minor is a lefty and Chicago was 14-0 vs left-handed starters last season (averaged 7.1 RPG) plus has opened 3-0 against them in 2021, averaging 9.3 RPG. You want to 'step in front of that train?' Not I. Good luck...Larry |
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04-11-21 | Yankees -143 v. Rays | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
My free play is on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET. The Rays/Yankees rivalry is gaining momentum quickly, as Tampa Bay won the AL East by SEVEN games over New York in 2020 and then eliminated the Yankees in the ALDS by edging the Yankees 2-1 in the deciding Game 5 of the ALDS. Tampa Bay pounded the Yankees 10-5 in Friday's home opener and then won 4-0 on Saturday. The Rays are 12-2 in the last 14 regular-season meetings and 15-4 including their five-game victory in last season's ALDS. The Yankees' 3-5 start leaves them in last-place in the AL East as they look to avoid a three-game sweep Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field. New York's Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will take the mound nearly four years to the day of his major league debut also against Tampa Bay. Speaking of Tampa Bay, the Rays will use an opener in Brett Honeywell, who has been called up for his major league debut. Honeywell is making his debut after enduring Tommy John surgery in 2018, an operation to repair a broken bone in 2019, a nerve decompression procedure last May and arthroscopic surgery in December. He is 31-19 with a 2.88 ERA in 79 career minor league appearances and is pitching for the first time since 2017 with Triple-A Durham. Montgomery knows a little bit about missing time due to injury. This is his second season since recovering from missing most of 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. He was 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts (team was 5-5) last season. However, there were reasons to be optimistic about Montgomery, who pitched well during spring training going 3-0 with 0.90 ERA in three starts. He made his 2021 debut this past Monday in New York's 7-0 home win over Baltimore, pitching six scoreless innings with a 7-0 KW ratio. Let me also add that Montgomery started a postseason game for New York against Tampa Bay in 2020, allowing just one run in four innings of a 5-1 Yankees win. I'll back the Yankees to avoid the three-game sweep. Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 11 | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* "Thunder Down Under" Total is on the LAA/Tor Under at 7:07 ET. Shohei Ohtani had a three-run double and a solo HE Friday as the Angels defeated the Blue Jays 7-1 (Angels have won 12 of their past 15 games against the Blue Jays).The Angels have won the first two games of this four-game series and have matched a franchise best with their 6-2 start, having won six of their first eight games just TWICE before. It should be pointed out that the Angels entered the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Toronto made back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but three losing seasons followed, before the Blue Jays surprised all going 32-28 in 2020. However, Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay 2-0 in a best-of-three series. The Blue Jays are 3-5 to open the 2021 season. The Angels will start left-hander Jose Quintana (0-0, 10.80 ERA) on Saturday and he'll square off against Toronto left-hander Steven Matz (1-0, 1.42 ERA).Quintana was AWFUL in his Angels debut (3.1 IP / 4 ERs), after signing as a free agent after nine years in Chicago, 5 1/2 with the White Sox and 3 1/2 with the Cubs. Quintana was limited to just four games (one start) and 10 innings last season because of a freak injury when he cut his thumb while washing dishes. He ultimately had surgery on the thumb and missed two months. Quintana pitched for Joe Maddon in 2017-19 with the Cubs. "He's a guy who normally eats up innings," Maddon said. "He has a repeatable, compact delivery and a nice arm stroke. His success, to me, relies on good game planning. He just needs a little direction on how to attack people ... how to use the really good stuff he already has." In contrast, Matz was impressive in his Blue Jays debut April 5 at Arlington, Texas, when he struck out nine (just one walk) and allowed one ER in 6.1 innings. The Mets expected "big things" from Matz but he never delivered. He was 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 2020 (nine appearances / six starts). The Mets had seen enough and traded Matz to Toronto Blue on January 27, 2021. That said, he sure showed well in his first start. I have a feeling this guy has more than a little talent. As for Quintana, he's been an effective starter for parts of his MLB career. It sure doesn't hurt that Quintana is 7-2 with a 1.88 ERA and 61 strikeouts. He ranks second all-time in ERA among pitchers to make at least 10 career starts against Toronto. The Toronto team that Quintana faces on Saturday, has averaged just 3.3 PG through eight starts but also owns a team ERA of 3.38 in 2020. It's Goin' Under! Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-21 | Phillies v. Braves -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season with a three-game series at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Braves are looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row), while Philadelphia opened the season seeking its first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Phils swept the Braves 3-0 in the season's opening series for both teams, holding the Braves to just THREE runs. The Braves fell to 0-4 with a 6-5 Tuesday loss at Washington but then swept a Wednesday doubleheader (again, 7-inning games this season) by beating the Nats 7-6 and 2-0. As for the Phillies, they took two of three from the Mets and visited Atlanta for this three-game series at 5-1. Friday's contest marked Philly's first road game of the season and was also the Braves' first home game. The starters were Zach Wheeler and Charlie Morton, who squared off against each other last Saturday in Philadelphia. Wheeler out-pitched Morton in that 4-0 Philly win, throwing seven shutout innings (allowed just ONE hit) with a 10-0 KW ratio. Morton pitched six innings, allowing three ERs on six hits in five innings. However, Morton and the Braves turned the tables last night, winning 8-1. Morton allowed just ONE run in six innings, while Wheeler allowed three runs in 4.2 innings plus Philly's bullpen allowed FIVE runs in 3.1 innings. The pitching matchup for Saturday is Zach Eflin (0-0, 1.29 ERA) of Philadelphia and Ian Anderson (0-0, 1.80) for Atlanta, the same pair who dueled last Sunday. Eflin made 10 starts last season and went 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, striking out 70 and walking only 15 in 59 innings. In two starts against the Braves in 2020, Eflin was 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA, striking out 14 in 12.1 innings. He was excellent last Sunday vs the Braves, allowing just four hits and one ER in seven innings (8-1 KW ratio). Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). He countered Eflin last Sunday by allowing four hits and one ER over five innings (7-2 KW ratio). I had Morton and Atlanta over Wheeler and Philly in last night's quick "re-hook." I'm back again with the very same set-up here. Anderson also made four playoff starts in 2020, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a KW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. This guy's the "real deal," while Eflin is 29-33 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.36 ERA in his 90 career appearances (85 starts). Want more? After last night's win, Atlanta is a MONEY-MAKING 54-21 in its last 75 games as a home favorite (72%). Second verse, same as the first. Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-21 | Yankees -114 v. Rays | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET. It's not Red Sox/ Yankees but the Rays/Yankees rivalry is gaining momentum quickly. Tampa Bay won the AL East by SEVEN games over New York in 2020 and then eliminated the Yankees in the ALDS by edging the Yankees 2-1 in the deciding Game 5 of the ALDS. Both teams enter Saturday's contest 3-4, after the Rays pounded the Yankees 10-5 10-5 in Tampa Bay's 2021 home opener on Friday afternoon. Tropicana Field's domed stadium had 9,021 fans in attendance for the unveiling of the two banners representing the clinching of the AL East Division and the AL pennant. Getting the ball for the middle contest of this three-game series will be New York's Domingo German (0-1, 9.00) and Tampa Bay's Chris Archer (0-1, 13.50), German was 18-4 for the Yankees when he was placed on administrative leave by MLB pending an investigation of suspected domestic violence on September 19, 2019. It was confirmed on Sep 25 that he would not be eligible to participate in any baseball action for the remainder of 2019, including the postseason, German made just ONE start in 2020. German will make just his SECOND start since Aug. 20, 2019 on Saturday, after being roughed for four runs (three earned) in two innings of relief last Saturday. Chris Archer was considered one of the stars of Tampa Bay's rotation from 2013 through 2018 but he was clearly overrated (see his stats during that time, if you don't believe me). He was traded to Pitts during the 2018 season and went 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA. he then imploded in 2019, going 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and 1,41 WHIP in s 23 starts (Pirates were 8-15), Archer missed all of 202 with a health issue but signed a one-year, $6.5 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays on Feb 2, 20201. Archer lasted just TWO innings in his 2021 debut at Miami on April 4), allowing four runs (three earned). My belief is that Archer is 'done,' so I'll back the Yankees to bounce back from Friday's shellacking. I'm giving German the benefit of the doubt, remembering his 18-4 season in 2019, when he had a MLB-best .818 winning percentage (note: Yanks won BOTH of his 2019 starts vs Tampa Bay). Good luck...Larry |
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04-09-21 | Wizards v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the CS Warriors at 10:10 ET. The Washington Wizards are on a season-long, six-game road trip and it continues Friday when they visit the Golden State Warriors in San Francisco. The Wizards won 131-116 at Orlando on Wednesday, snapping a four-game losing streak to give them an 18-32 record. Washington finds itself FOUR games back of the East's 10th seed, the last team that will get into the NBA's "Play-In" tournament (seeds 7-10). The host Warriors last played on Tuesday, snapping a three-game skid when they outlasted the Milwaukee Bucks 122-121. Golden St is 24-27, giving them a two-game lead over the Pelicans for the West's 10th seed, as well as just ONE game behind the No. 9 seed San Antonio. Russell Westbrook (21.8-10.5-10.6) finished with 23 points,14 rebounds and 15 assists vs the Magic, his sixth triple-double in the past seven games. He is now only 15 behind Oscar Robertson for most triple-doubles in NBA history. More good news for Washington was that Bradley Beal returned after missing the previous five games with a hip injury. Beal (31.2-4.8-4.8) is the NBA's leading scorer and totaled 26 points on Wednesday. Second-year forward Rui Hachimura (14.1 & 5.9) also returned to the lineup from a brief absence with a shoulder injury, meaning Washington is the closest to full strength it has been all season. Curry had 41 points against the Bucks, his FOURTH straight game of 30-plus points, He's averaging 29.7-5.5-6.0 on the season and speaking of being healthy, the Warriors had their preferred starting lineup intact vs Milwaukee. Oubre (15.1 & 6.0) joined Curry in the backcourt, rookie Wiseman (11.9 & 5.9) started at center, while Wiggins (18.0 & 4.8) and Green (6.4-6.5-8.5) started at the two forward positions. The Warriors are off that big win over the Bucks but it came on Tuesday, so the team has had a few days to settle in after that 'high.' This game begins a VERY favorable stretch of games for the Warriors, as after the Wizards, they play the Rockets, Nuggets, Thunder and Cavs. Other than the game vs Denver, note that Washington is 18-32, Houston is 14-37, OKC is 20-32 and Cleveland is 19-32. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves -125 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season with a three-game series at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Braves are looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row), while Philadelphia opened the season seeking its first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Phils swept the Braves 3-0 in the season's opening series for both teams, holding the Braves to just THREE runs. Braves fell to 0-4 with a 6-5 Tuesday loss at Washington but then swept a Wednesday doubleheader (again, 7-inning games this season) by beating the Nats 7-6 and 2-0. As for the Phillies, they took two of three from the Mets and head to Atlanta for this three-game series at 5-1 (both teams had Thursday off). Tonight's contest marks Philly's first road game of the season and it's also the Braves' first home game. The starters are Zach Wheeler and Charlie Morton, who squared off against each other last Saturday in Philadelphia. Wheeler out-pitched Morton in that 4-0 Philly win, throwing seven shutout innings (allowed just ONE hit) with a 10-0 KW ratio. Morton pitched six innings, allowing three ERs on six hits in five innings. In this quick pitching 're-hook,' I'm siding with Morton and the Braves. The Braves signed Morton to a one-year contract and hope that Morton can deliver like he did for Houston (14-7 and 15-3 in 2017 and 2018) and for Tampa Bay, when he went 16-6 in 2019. Moston was just 2-2 in nine starts in 2020 but he then led the Rays to wins in his first three playoff starts, allowing just one ER over 15.2 IP (0.57 ERA), before losing Game 3 of the World Series. The Atlanta bats have been relatively quiet so far but in 21 home games at night vs righties last season, averaged 7.1 RPG. Atlanta is also a MONEY-MAKING 53-21 in its last 74 games as a home favorite. Expect Morton and Atlanta to prevail in this first game of the series, after their opening series in Philly went so poorly. Good luck...Larry |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Clippers at 10:10 ET. The 38-12 Jazz are 38-12 played at the 35-14 Suns last night, with the Suns earning a hard-fought 117-113 overtime victory. Phoenix moved with 1 1/2-games of the Jazz (West's No. 1 seed) and improved their NBA-best ATS record to 33-17. However, there is no rest for the weary, as the Suns visit Staples Center tonight to take on the LA Clippers, who own the West's current No. 3 seed at 34-18. The Clippers trail the Suns by three games but also have to 'look over their shoulders,' as the Nuggets are just a half-game back and the Lakers just 1 1/2 games back. Phoenix has won seven straight entering Thursday's contest and 11 of their last 13, while the Clippers are in midst of a nine-game homestand and enter having won eight of their last 10 games. The Suns' top-three players, guards Booker (26.1-4.1-4.5) and Paul (16.3-4.7-8.8) plus center Ayton (14.8 7 10.8) starred last night. Booker scored 35, Paul had 29 and nine assists and Ayton served up his 26th double-double of the season (18 & 12). SF Bridges (13.1 & 4.7) is a regular starter, while PF Crowder (10.2 & 5.) has started 32 of his 47 games. PF Saric (9.9 & 4.3) and SF Johnson (9.8 & 3.3) come in just under double digits. Naturally, the Clippers are led by Kawhi (25.8-6.7-5.0) and George (22.5-6.7-5.4) but this team is very deep. Ibaka (10.9 & 6.7) has been out since mid-March but Zubac has taken over as a starter and averaged 10.6 & 8.7 since March 15. PG Beverley (8.3 & 3.7) went out Mar 12 and just came back on Tuesday but Jackson stepped in to averaged 13.2 PPG in March and 12.0 in three April games. MPF Morris (12.6 & 3.9), swingman Batum (8.3 & 4.9) and SG Kennard (8.1) have been contributing all season. It was a HUGE win for the Suns last night vs the Jazz (in OT, no less) and it's at Staples vs a Clipper team that's won EIGHT of 10, looking to gain some ground on the Suns. Great situation for the Clipps. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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04-07-21 | Jazz -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Ut Jazz at 10:10 ET. The Utah Jazz were the West's No. 6 seed in last season's playoffs in Orlando but after taking a 3-1 lead over the Nuggets (No. 3 seed), lost the final three games of that first-round series. As for the Suns, despite an 8-0 SU & ATS run in the Orlando 'bubble,' the Suns found themselves on the outside-looking-in on the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season. However, as the Jazz and Suns get together in Phoenix on Wednesday, the teams own the two-best records in the Western Conference. The Jazz are 38-12 and the Suns are 35-14, 2 1/2-games back. The teams also own the NBA's two-best ATS records, the Suns checking in at 32-17 and the Jazz at 31-19.
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04-07-21 | Brewers v. Cubs -104 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The 2-3 Brewers and 3-2 Cubs meet this afternoon at Wrigley Field for the rubber-game of their three-game series. The Cubs won two of three from Pittsburgh to open the season and then beat the Brewers 5-3 on Monday, before the Brewers bounced back with a 4-0 shutout win on Tuesday. That win snapped a three-game Milwaukee slide, which had won Opening Day at Minnesota, before dropping the last two of that series and the first game at Wrigley on Monday. Today's pitching matchup features an Opening Day "reset" for Brandon Woodruff of Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks Chicago, six days after each started the season for their respective teams. Neither staff ace pitched well, as Woodruff lasted just four innings, giving up three early runs as Milwaukee fell into a 3-1 hole before rallying for a 6-5 victory in 10 innings. Hendricks had an even shorter opener than Woodruff, lasting just THREE innings while giving up three runs on four hits with three walks and four strikeouts. Woodruff made 13 starts last season, going 3-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP (Brewers were 6-7 in his starts). However, he was 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 22 starts in 2019, with the Brewers going a MONEY-MAKING 18-4. Woodruff is 0-1 with a 4.65 ERA in eight career appearances against the Cubs (six starts / team is 4-2). Hendricks did not have a start shorter than 4.1 innings last season, while posting a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 12 starts last season (he was 6-5 and the Cubs 7-5). He's faced the Brewers 23 times in his career (most vs any opponent) and while he's 9-6 (Cubs are 13-10), he's posted a 2.84 ERA over 136.1 innings (that's some pretty good pitching!). I expect a BIG bounce-back effort here by Hendricks, who had a 1,85 ERA (.195 BAA) at Wrigley last season, after posting a 2.04 home ERA (.206 BAA) in 2019. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-07-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Tor Blue Jays at 2:05 ET. The Blue Jays opened the season by taking two of three at Yankees Stadium and then won 6-2 at Texas on Monday. Meanwhile, the Rangers lost two of three at KC (allowed 28 runs in the three-game series), before falling at home to Toronto on Monday. However, after allowing 34 runs in four games to open the season, Texas pitching held the Blue Jays to four runs on just six hits in Tuesday's game, while Nate Lowe hit a pair of two-run HRs in the Rangers' 7-4 win. The starting pitchers for Wednesday's rubber game of this three-game series are Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu and Texas' Kyle Gibson. Ryu pitched 5.1 innings in his first start of the season against the Yankees, allowing two runs on four hits (5-1 KW ratio). The lefty had a strong season in his first year with Toronto in 2020, going 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 12 starts (Jays were 9-3). Gibson took the mound with a 5-0 lead back on Opening Day at KC but immediately gave it all back up, retiring just ONE batter (via strikeout) while allowing five runs, four hits and three walks. The Royals went on to post a 14-10 victory. No April Fool's. That's a true story. Gibson is in his NINTH season (second with Texas) and owns a lifetime record of 69-74 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. One could point out that he's 4-1 in his career vs Toronto but that's over nine starts (teams are only 5-4) and his ERA is 4.64 and his WHIP is 1.39 (hardly impressive numbers). Texas owned a team ERA of 5.02 in 2020 and so far in 2021, it's 7.74 after five games! Getting back to Ryu, he's facing Texas for the first time but note that he was a better pitcher away from home last season for Toronto. His home ERA (six starts) was 3.15, as opponents batted .268. However, in six road starts, his ERA was 2.20 and opponents batted just .195. What's more, Texas was just 7-15 vs lefties last season (averaged only 3.4 RPG) and has opened 0-2 vs lefties in 2021, averaging 3.0 RPG. Why not lay the 1 1/2 runs? Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-21 | White Sox -139 v. Mariners | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 10:10 ET The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. However, Chicago opened the season with a four-game series in Anaheim against the Angels and lost THREE of four (more later). Seattle went 89-73 in 2018 but followed by falling to 68-94 in 2019 and then went 27-33 in last season's 60-game schedule. The two teams opened a three-games series in Seattle last night with Chicago winning 6-0, as Yasmani Grandal led the way with a HR and three RBI. Taking the mound tonight will be Chicago's Lucas Giolito (0-0, 3.38 ERA) and Seattle's James Paxton, who will make his 2021 season debut. Giolito is considered Chicago's ace. He was 14-9 (3.41 ERA / 1.06 WHIP) in 2019 for a White Sox team that was just 72-89. He was a more modest 4-3 in 12 stars last season in 12 stars (Chicago was 7-5) but again posted a solid ERA (3.48) and an excellent WHIP (1.04). He made one playoff start last season, allowing just two hits and one ER over seven innings with an 8-1 KW ratio. Giolito got a no-decision in his 2021 season opener but allowed two ERs on two hits with an 8-2 KW ratio in 5.1 innings. The 32-year-old Paxton returned to the Mariners as a free agent this February after spending the past two seasons with the New York Yankees. He began his career with Seattle, where he notched 41 victories across his first six seasons from 2013-18. "It's great to have him back," Mariners manager Scott Servais said. "I know what he's going to mean to our ballclub this year. We've got to keep him healthy, keep him going, making every turn. You're going to look up at the end of the year and he's going to have a big season. There's no question in my mind." I tend to disagree. I've always believed that Paxton is overrated and even in his two best seasons with Seattle (12-5 in 2017 and 11-6 in 2018), allowed more hits 364 than innings pitched (296.1). When he went 15-6 for the Yankees in 2019, he allowed 186 hits in 150.2 innings. He made just five starts for New York last season with an ERA of 6.64 and a WHIP of 1.48. For those of you who were NOT with me last night on the White Sox, I give you a heads up! The fact that Paxton is a lefty does NOT bode well for him or Seattle. The White Sox went 14-0 vs left-handed starters in 2020, averaging 7.1 RPG. The White Sox did drop THREE of four games vs the Angels to open the season but looking closer, you'll find that the three losses came against right-handed starters (scored only 10 combined runs) while the "W" was against the left-handed Heaney, a 12-8 Chicago win. Last night vs another lefty (Sheffield), the White Sox won 6-0. Why 'get off this train' now? Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -117 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies sure got no favors from the scheduling 'gods,' who sent the D'backs to San Diego to open against the Padres, while the Rockies were tasked to open with a four-game home set vs the defending world champion Dodgers. Both teams lost THREE of their respective games, Arizona opening with a win before losing three in a row, while the Rockies lost the first three, before salvaging the final game of the series. Both teams had Monday off and tonight opened a three-game series at Coors Field. Luke Weaver (1-9, 6.58 ERA in 2020) is making his first start of the season for Arizona, while Colorado counters with German Marquez (0-0, 2.25 ERA in 2021). Weaver was just plain AWFUL in 2020, as the D'backs lost 10 of his 12 starts and his 'sorry' ERA was matched by his 1.56 WHIP. Meanwhile, Marquez went 11-7, 14-11 and 12-5 for the Rockies from 2017-19, before going 4-6 with a 3.75 ERA in 13 starts (Rockies were 7-6). Colorado was not dominant at Coors Field last season, going just 12-18 but the Rockies did average 5.1 RPG in their home park. In Weaver, they get to face a pitcher coming off a MISERABLE 2020 season (see above) and one who has posted a 7.40 ERA in six career games against the Rockies, including five starts. Weaver will take the mound for an Arizona team that was just 9-21 on the road in 2020, averaging a measly 3.8 RPG. As noted, the D-backs have opened 1-3 on the road in 2021 and had scored just a total of just five runs in their first three games, before scoring seven times in a one-run loss on Sunday. That still leaves them averaging just 3.0 RPG. Blowout Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 124-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Heat at 8:05 ET. The Memphis Grizzlies had lost three of four before winning back-to-back games at home to Minnesota (120-108) and 116-100 at Philadelphia, who played without Embiid. Memphis 24-23 and currently owns the No. 8 seed in the West. However, the Grizzlies are FIVE games back of the No. 6, the last position guaranteed to make the postseason. Seeds 7 through 10 will enter a "Play-In" format. Miami's season has featured both extended winning and losing streaks and the Heat enter this game on a four-game winning streak, which has followed a SIX-game losing streak. 26-24 Miami is currently tied with the Hawks as the teams battle for the No. 4 seed in the East. However, behind the East's top-three seeds, the field is crowded, as Miami is just 1 1/2-games up on the No. 8 seed. The Grizzlies' impressive win at Philly opened a four-game road trip, as center Jonas Valanciunas (16.2 & 12.5) collected 16 points and 21 rebounds. It was his 10th straight double-double with Valanciunas recording 17 straight games with at least 10 rebounds. Memphis had SEVEN players in double figures on Sunday. Joining Valanciunas in double digits on the season are Morant (19.0 & 7.5 APG), Brooks (16.1), Anderson (12.3-5.8-3.4), Clarke (11.7 & 5.5) and Allen (10.1) Melton has missed 12 games this season but in his 35 games (just one start), also averages 10.1 PPG. Miami's winning streak began with back-to-back road wins at the Knicks and Pacers, followed by home wins over the Warriors and then Saturday's 115-101 victory over the Cavs. That was a rare double-digit win for the Heat, which shot 53.7 percent and had SEVEN players in double figures. Butler (21.2-7.5-7.3) and Adebayo (19.3-9.6-5.3) are All Stars but with the Heat healthier than they've been all season, their depth is impressive. Guards Herro (13.3), Dragic (13.5 & 4.6 APG) and Robinson (13.1 & 3.8) are now finally joined by Oladipo, who has played back-to-back games, averaging 26.5 MPG while scoring 14 points and handing out 10 assists in his first two contests with the Heat. SF Ariza is also a new addition (9 games / 6 starts) and he's an excellent defender, averaging 7.1 & 4.1 Before Miami's four-game winning streak, it had lost six consecutive games, beginning March 17 at Memphis 89-85. In that meeting, Jimmy Butler led all scorers with 24 but it was not enough for the Heat as Memphis' balanced scoring (Morant, De'Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson each had 13) was too much for a Miami team playing its fifth game in seven nights. That's NOT the case here, as the Heat haven't played since Saturday. In its four-game winning streak, Miami has regained a key component, its defensive identity. The Heat have held its last four 'victims' to an average of just 96.3 PPG. Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-21 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Boston Celtics were expected to be among the East's best teams but welcome Philadelphia to TD Garden just 25-25 on the season. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers (one of Boston's fiercest rivals) sit 34-16, just a half-game back of the Nets (current No. 1 seed in the East). The Milwaukee Bucks are 1 1/2-games back of the 76ers, as those three teams have separated themselves from the rest of the Eastern Conference teams. The Celtics are currently the No. 7 seed and will desperately want to avoid the "Play-In" round which features seeds 7 through 10. Joel Embiid returned from a 10-game absence due to a bone bruise in his left knee on Saturday during Philadelphia's 122-113 victory over Minnesota (had 24 & 8), but sat out Sunday's 116-100 loss to Memphis. "Any player who has been out three weeks and then plays in a game, you probably don't play him in a (back-to-back), it's just smart," Sixers head coach Doc Rivers said. "This one was pretty simple. This wasn't a hard decision for any of us." Embiid is averaging 29.8 & 11.3 in 32 games this season and expects to be on the floor in this one. The rest of Philly's starting-five consists of PF Harris (20.8 & 7.3) and SF Green (9.6 & 3.7) plus guards Simmons (15.2-7.9-7.2) and Curry (12.7). Milton (14.1) has been the best scorer off the bench but kudos to veteran center Howard (7.0 & 8.3), who has played in every game this season. Part of Boston's problem this season has been staying healthy. However, head coach Brad Stevens likes the balance and cohesiveness his healthier roster is playing with these days. All Stars Tatum (25.2-7.0-4.3) and Brown (24.3-5.7-3.6) have only missed a handful of games but PG Walker (17.9-3.6-4.8) didn't get on the court until and team-leader Smart (12.9 & 5.5 APG) missed 19 games from. Big Man Thompson (7.9 & 8.4) has been out since mid-march, while Theis (9.5 & 5.2) was moved at the trade deadline. The good news has been Robert Williams has averaged 11.8 & 9.3 with Thompson sidelined, including 18.0 & 8.5 in Boston's back-to-back wins. Then there is the recently acquired Fournier (19.7 PPG while with Orlando), who followed up his seven 3-pointers in a win Friday night against the Houston Rockets with four more vs Charlotte to finish with 17 points! The Sixers swept back-to-back games against the Celtics in Philadelphia back on Jan 20 and 22, so expect the revenge motive to play a big part in this rivalry game that turns into a Boston rout! Good luck...Larry |
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04-05-21 | White Sox -118 v. Mariners | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 10:00 ET. The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. However, Chicago opened the season with a four-game series in Anaheim against the Angels and lost THREE of four (more later). The White Sox head to Seattle for a three-game series beginning Monday to face a Mariners team that opened by taking TWO of three from the Giants. Seattle went 89-73 in 2018 but followed by falling to 68-94 in 2019 and then went 27-33 in last season's 60-game schedule. Taking the mound tonight will be a pair of lefties, Chicago's Carlos Rodon and Seattle's Justus Sheffield. Chicago had high hopes for Rodon (third overall pick in the 2014 draft) when the White Sox named him their Opening Day starter in 2019. However, he has made just 11 appearances over the past two seasons, mainly because of Tommy John surgery in May 2019 on his left elbow. He was non-tendered during the offseason before re-signing with the White Sox on Feb 1. He then earned a spot in the rotation by posting a 1.32 ERA in four spring training appearances (13.2 innings in which he also posted a 16-1 KW ratio). Sheffield was 4-3 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 starts last season (team was 6-4, winning his final four starts of 2020). The jury is still out on Sheffield, as entering last season he had made just 11 MLB appearances (seven stars), posting a 6.70 ERA. His only previous start against the White Sox came in 2019, when he allowed six runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings. The fact that Sheffield is a lefty does NOT bode well for him or Seattle. The White Sox went 14-0 vs left-handed starters in 2020, averaging 7.1 RPG. I note at the top that the White Sox dropped THREE of four games vs the Angels but looking closer, you'll find that the three losses came against right-handed starters (scored only 10 runs) while the "W" was against the left-handed Heaney, a 12-8 Chicago win. Adding to that "perfect" stat, is that Rodon has made three career starts vs Seattle, going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA (Chicago is 3-0). LOTS to like about Chicago in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-05-21 | Astros v. Angels -114 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL West) is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET. The Houston Astros won 100-plus games each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. However, the Astros just 'ran over' the A's in Oakland to open the 2021 season, sweeping the four-game series against the defending AL West champs while outscoring them 35-9, becoming just the fourth team in MLB history to score at least eight runs in its first four games to start the season. Houston heads to Anaheim for a brief to-game series against the Angels. The Angels opened the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. However, after four games, the Angels are 'smiling.' LA took THREE of four from the White Sox, who were a 'sexy' pick to win this year's AL pennant. Monday's pitching matchup features Houston's Luis Garcia and LA's Jose Quintana. Garcia will be making just his SECOND career major league start. Garcia made five appearances last season, four out of the bullpen, including one against the Angels in which he gave up one run in 4.1 innings. As for Quintana, he's making his Angels debut after signing as a free agent after nine years in Chicago, 5 1/2 with the White Sox and 3 1/2 with the Cubs. Quintana was limited to just four games (one start) and 10 innings last season because of a freak injury when he cut his thumb while washing dishes. He ultimately had surgery on the thumb and missed two months. Quintana pitched for Joe Maddon in 2017-19 with the Cubs. "He's a guy who normally eats up innings," Maddon said. "He has a repeatable, compact delivery and a nice arm stroke. His success, to me, relies on good game planning. He just needs a little direction on how to attack people ... how to use the really good stuff he already has." Garcia is at best an "unknown quantity," while Quintana has been an effective starter for parts of his MLB career. It sure doesn't hurt that in his SEVEN career starts vs Houston he owns a 2,53 ERA with his teams having gone 6-1. Make that 7-1 after tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Gonzaga at 9:20 ET. Gonzaga opened the season as the AP's No. 1 team, while Baylor opened as the nation's second-ranked team. Gonzaga stayed atop the polls all season and entered the NCAA Tournament at 26-0 and as its No. 1 overall seed. Baylor opened 17-0 but COVID-19 nearly derailed Baylor's dream season, with the Bears being forced to pause for three weeks in February. Baylor's unbeaten season was quickly tarnished with a 13-point loss at Kansas in their second game back and for one week (Mar 1), fell out of the No. 2 spot. The Bears lost again in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament but entered the "Big Dance" No. 2 in the AP poll and as one of four, No. 1 seeds . You all know what happened Saturday, as Baylor routed Houston (a No. 2 seed) 78-59 while 11th-seeded UCLA took Gonzaga to OT before losing 93-90 on Jalen Suggs' three-pointer from 30-plus feet. Baylor is 27-2 and Gonzaga 31-0 as the tourneys top-two seeds meet in the national championship for the first time since 2005, when North Carolina beat unbeaten Illinois 75-50. Deja vu? One could also bring up the fact that Gonzaga has won 29 of its 31 games this year by double digits but BOTH single-digit wins have come here in Indianapolis, Dec 2 over West Va (87-82) and of course Saturday vs UCLA. Both head coaches come in with great resumes but each are missing that elusive national title. Scott Drew took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and had made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine) entering this season. Baylor won its first-ever Big 12 regular-season title this season, the first league championship since the Bears won the SWC regular season in 1950. This is Drew's ninth NCAA appearance with the Bears and Baylor reached the Sweet 16 for the FIFTH time in the last 12 years. This year's Elite 8 appearance was his third with Baylor and now it's his first Final Four appearance (third in school history). With a win over Houston, Baylor's in its second national championship game lost to Kentucky in 1948). Gonzaga has played in 22 straight NCAA tournaments. The Bulldogs burst into relevance with an Elite Eight run in 199 under their former head coach, Dan Monson, He left for Minnesota after that breakthrough with Mark Few taking over and making 21 straight Big Dance appearances. Gonzaga advanced to back-to-back Sweet 16s in 2000 and 2001. The program made another jump in 2006 when Adam Morrison became a high-scoring phenom. Seven years later, Gonzaga earned a No. 1 seed in the tournament for the first time in 2013. Four years after that, the Bulldogs made it to their first Final Four and lost to North Carolina in the 2017 title game. However, the road hasn’t always been smooth. From 2007 to 2014, Few’s teams failed to advance out of the first weekend SEVEN times in eight tournaments, with the Zags becoming targets of March ridicule (overrated and over-seeded). I had a HUGE play on Baylor vs Houston, pointing out that the Cougars may not have been quite as good as their record indicated. I couldn't have been more 'on target!' Houston earned a No. 2 seed, so the Cougars opened against a No. 15 seed in Cleveland St. However, Houston then benefitted by drawing a 10-seed in Rutgers, an 11-seed in Syracuse and a 12-seed in Oregon St. NO team had ever had an easier route to a Final 4 since the advent of the 64-team field. Yes, Houston had held four NCAA tourney opponents to just 55.7 PPG but not counting the game vs Cleveland St, the Houston offense had managed just 63, 62 and 67 points in beating Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. Baylor knew a little about playing defense as well plus Baylor has faced 12 top-30 NET-ranked teams since January, compared to Houston's two. It was "no-contest" from the start. Baylor is led by a great and deep perimeter group. Butler (16.6 & 4.7) is the top scorer, followed by Teague (15.8 & 4.0) and Mitchell (14.0 & 5.5 APG). The 6-5 Vital (5.6 & 6.5) is listed as a guard but plays more like a power forward and is the team's top rebounder and one of its best defenders. The 6-10 Thamba (3.7 7 3.9) starts but contributes little. The 6-8 Tchatchoua added 11 & 6 vs Houston but in Baylor's first four tourney games, averaged only 4.0 & 3.3. The Bears also get scoring off the bench from guards Flager (9.0) and Mayer (8.3). Baylor averages 84.4 PPG (49.3% shooting) plus leads the nation in three-point accuracy at 41.8%. However, the Bears are facing a Gonzaga team averaging nation-highs in scoring (92.1 PPG) and in FG percentage (55.1%). Gonzaga features a first-team All American in the 6-7 Kispert (18.8 & 5.0) plus two third-team members in the 6-10 Timme (19.2 & 7.1) and freshman guard Suggs (14.1-5.5-4.6). The starting-five also includes guards Ayayi (12.2 & 7.0) and Nembhard (9.2 & 4.4 APG). All avergaev 28-plus minutes per game. Gonzaga 'dodged a bullet' against UCLA and will HAVE to play better defense than it did against the Bruins, as the Bulldogs allowed UCLA to shoot 57.6% (8 of 17 on threes) plus forced just 10 TOs! I've had a feeling all season that this would be the year when "The Little Engine that Couldn't" (aka Gonzaga), finally broke through. Bottom line is this. Suggs, Ayayi and Nembhard matchup favorably with Baylor's outstanding perimeter players, while I just don't believe that Baylor can match up with Kispert and Timme. Unlike in past seasons, Gonzaga has played EIGHT Power-5 conference teams, with Timme averaging 24.0 & 7.0 and Kispert 20.1 PPG, while for good measure, freshman Suggs has averaged 15.6-5.8-5.1 against those same teams. Gonzaga got its 'scare' Saturday and I expect Monday to be a coronation. Good luck...Larry |
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04-05-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (AL East) is on the NY Yankees at 6:35 ET. The Baltimore Orioles finished 25-35 (.417) in last year's 60-game season (projected 95 losses for a 162-game schedule) but it was a 'step' in the right direction coming off a 115-loss season in 2018 and a 108-loss one in 2018. Baltimore opened its 2021 season with an impressive display at Fenway Park with a three-game sweep of the Red Sox, scoring 18 runs (6.0 per) while its pitching staff allowed just FIVE runs. The Orioles head to Yankee Stadium for a three-game series beginning on Monday. The Yankees are coming off losing two of three at home to the Blue Jays to open the 2021 season. It was a frustrating weekend at the plate, as the Yankees were 4-for-23 with RISP and their only two HRs came off the bat of Gary Sanchez. Monday's pitching matchup will feature Baltimore's Jorge Lopez and New York's Jordan Montgomery. Lopez has done little in his five years, with his busiest season coming back in 2019 with KC when he made 39 appearances (18 starts). He finished that season with a 6.33 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He begins his first full season for the Orioles tonight. He was 2-2 with a 6.34 ERA in nine games (six starts) after being claimed off waivers from the Kansas City Royals. Montgomery begins his second season since recovering from missing most of 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. He was 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts (team was 5-5) last season and Monday will be his first home start in front of fans since an April 26, 2018 start vs the Twins. There are reasons to be optimistic about Montgomery, who started a postseason game for New York against Tampa Bay in 2020, allowing just one run in four innings of a 5-1 Yankees win. More notably, he pitched well during spring training going 3-0 with 0.90 ERA in three starts. Montgomery is 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA in seven career starts against Baltimore (team is 4-3). The clincher for me in laying the 1 1/2-runs here is the fact that the Orioles have lost 10 straight games at Yankee Stadium. New York's last loss to the Orioles at home was March 31, 2019 and its 10-game home winning streak over Baltimore is its longest since also winning 10 straight over the Orioles from July 30, 2008, to July 22, 2009. The Red Sox are a team in disarray. Not so with the Yankees! Good luck...Larry |
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04-04-21 | Grizzlies v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 116-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Phi 7ers at 7:05 ET. The 23-23 Memphis Grizzlies begin a four-game road trip with a stop in Philadelphia on Sunday. Memphis is currently 9th in the West, a half-game back of the 8th-seed. Seeds 7 through 10 enter a "Play-In" format for the final two seeds in each conference and Memphis is three games back of the No. 7 and also three games up on the 11-seed, the last team out of the playoff picture. The 76ers welcome the Grizzlies to Philadelphia off a 122-113 Saturday victory over the Timberwolves. which allowed them to move into a tie with the Brooklyn Nets for the East's best record (both teams are 34-15). Memphis is also off a game with Minnesota, when the Grizzlies beat the Timberwolves 120-108 on Friday in Memphis. EIGHT players scored in double-digits for the Grizzlies, as center Jonas Valanciunas (16.2 & 12.5) collected 19 points and 11 rebounds. It was his NINTH straight double-double with Valanciunas recording 16 straight games with at least 10 rebounds.PG Morant (19.3 & 7.4 APG) had a modest 11 points but as noted, SIX others were in double digits. Joining Morant and Valanciunas in double digits on the season are Brooks (16.0), Anderson (12.4-5.8-3.4), Clarke (11.6 & 5.6) and Allen 10.0). The "big news" for Philly last night was the return of MVP candidate Joel Embiid. The four-time All-Star center returned with a flourish on Saturday (following a 10-game absence due to a bone bruise in his left knee) by scoring 24 points, eight rebounds and three blocks. He's averaging 29.9 & 11.3 on the season, joined in the starting lineup by PF Harris (20.5 & 7.3) and SF Green (9.7 & 3.6) plus guards Simmons (15.5-7.9-7.4) and Curry (13.0). Guard Milton (14.1) has been the leading scorer off the bench all season plus veteran center Howard (7.0 & 8.2) has played in 47 of Philly's 48 games this season. Philadelphia head coach Doc Rivers told reporters that he wasn't sure if Embiid would play on Sunday but note that the 76ers were 7-3 during his recent 10-game absence. The 76ers are 12-3 since March 1, losing only in OT at home to Milwaukee plus at the LA Clippers and Denver. Can we all agree that Memphis is NOT in the class of those three teams? Memphis is tipping off a stretch in which the Grizzlies will play 11 of their next 14 games away from home and up first is Philadelphia, which owns the NBA's second-best 20-4 home record. at home. Philly will also remember barely losing a 106-104 decision in Memphis on Jan 16, a game Joel Embiid sat out for rest purposes. Embiid or no Embiid, Philly wins "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-04-21 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. The Oakland A's won the West in 2020 with a 36-24 record (tied for the AL's second-best), earning their first division title in seven years. The A's won SEVEN of the teams 10 regular season meetings in 2020 but then the Astros won the ALDS 3-1. The 2021 schedule has the teams opening with four games in Oakland While Oakland fans wasted no time on Opening Day reminding the Houston Astros of their 2017 cheating scandal, the Astros have done all their 'talking' on the playing field, taking the first THREE of this four-game series in dominating fashion.8-1, 9-5 and 9-1, out-hitting the A's 36-17. Adding insult to injury, Houston's bullpen has limited the A's to three ERs on nine hits in 12.1 innings (2.19 ERA), while the Astros have 'lit up' Oakland's relief staff to the tune of 17 hits and 13 ERs in 12.1 innings (9.49 ERA). So why take the A's here? First off, I like Sean Manaea (3.27 ERA in 13 career regular-season starts against the Astros) over Jose Urquidy (just 12 MLB starts the last two regular seasons) plus will note that Houston was just 0-4 in its only four away day games vs lefties last season, averaging just 2.0 RPG. Obviously, that's a small sample size but what isn't is that the A's were 22-10 (.688) at home last season, in line with the team's three-year home record of 130-70 (.650). A's avoid the dreaded four-game home sweep here! Good luck...Larry |
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04-04-21 | Braves -115 v. Phillies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Bounce-Back Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 1:05 ET. It's true that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but the Braves are still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title. The Braves and Phils split 10 games last season but the Phillies prevailed 3-2 on Opening Day at Citizens Bank Park (Braves were held to just seven hits) and after taking Friday off, the Phils bested the Braves again 4-0 on Saturday (braves were held to just ONE hit). The Phillies have limited the Braves to a combined TWO runs and eight hits with 24 strikeouts in back-to-back wins. What's going on? Atlanta looks to 'stop the bleeding' (more accurately, the Braves need to HIT!) by sending Ian Anderson to the mound to face Zach Eflin. Eflin made 10 starts last season and went 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, striking out 70 and walking only 15 in 59 innings. In two starts against the Braves in 2020, Eflin was 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA, striking out 14 in 12.1 innings. Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). The Braves scored 348 runs last season (5.80 RPG), just ONE run less than the world champion Dodgers scored. BTW...The Braves led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS, before LA came back to win the next three. Speaking of the postseason, Anderson made four playoff starts, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a kW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. Looking to avoid a sweep, Atlanta has just the pitcher to lead the way, Meanwhile, expect MVP Freddie Freeman (0-for-7) and Marcell Ozuna (0-for-3 with three strikeouts on Saturday) bats to finally 'wake up!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-21 | White Sox -118 v. Angels | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM of the Month is on the Chi White Sox at 9:07 ET. The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning Thursday night, turning a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 win over the White Sox. However, Chicago bounced back Friday with a 12-8 win, pounding out 13 hits (including Jose Abreu's grand slam), while securing the "W" with a five-run 9th (led 7-6 after eight innings). Saturday's pitching matchup features Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. Lynn came to the White Sox in a trade from the Texas Rangers for pitcher Dane Dunning and a minor leaguer. The 33-year-old was a workhorse last season, leading the majors in starts (13) and innings pitched (84). Many will remember him as an integral part of a St Louis rotation when he won 71 games over a five-year stretch from 2012-17 (he missed all of 2016 with an injury). Alex Cobb will make his debut with the Los Angeles Angels, after being acquired in an offseason trade with the Baltimore Orioles. Cobb was just awful in his last three seasons in Baltimore, going 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in 41 starts. However, that's in stark contrast to his stay with Tampa Bay, when he went 48-35 with a 3.50 ERA in 115 starts. Cobb played for Maddon in the first four years of his career (2011-14) and had the best season of his career in 2013, when he went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 22 starts. The Angels are hoping a reunion with manager Joe Maddon will help the right-hander rediscover the success he had early in his career. "Hope" is LA's theme here in 2021. The Angels enter the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. If only wishing could make things true! The Chicago White Sox did much more than 'hope' in 2020, as they made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and ended a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons by going 35-25. The 2021 version is improved from last season and expectations are high (and well-deserved), as the White Sox look to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. I'm a "big fan" of Lynn, who made three starts against the Angels in 2020, going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 17-5 KW ratio. It's Lynn over Cobb here. Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* MLB "Thunder Down Under" Total is on LAD/Col Under at 8:10 ET. The Dodgers won the 2020 World Series, the franchise's first since 1988 and return in 2021 as the favorite to "win it all," again. LA opens the season with a four-game series at Coors Field and Colorado won the series opener 8-5 on Thursday, before LA rebounded with an 11-6 win on Friday night. LA had 15 hits but scored just five runs on Thursday, because they went just 3-16 with RISP. That changed on Friday, as LA's 16 hits netted 11 runs, as the Dodgers improved to 8-18 with RISP. The Rockies were consistent in both games, scoring eight runs 0n 11 hits Thursday and then six runs on eight hits Friday. The first two games of the series have averaged 15.0 RPG and is that what we should expect again on Saturday? My vote (bet) is N-O! Walker Buehler is 24-9 in his short career but has the stuff of an ace. He owns a .727 win percentage in 70 appearances (61 starts) with a 3.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 420-93 KW ratio. Jon Gray has had an up-and-down career with the Rockies (45-37 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.34 WHIP), showing signs of being an ace and at other times searching for consistency. That said, he's has some success against the Dodgers, most notably at Coors Field where he is 4-1 with a 3.48 ERA in nine starts against them. In a hitter-friendly park, he has held Los Angeles to a .249 batting average and a .413 slugging percentage. This one stays under the double-digit over/under number. Good luck...Larry |