Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-06-20 | Padres v. A's +110 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET. The Padres won Game 1 of this three-game series against the A's in Oakland 7-0 on Friday night but the A's rebounded nicely on Saturday, winning 8-4. The rubber match is set for Sunday. The 24-17 Padres know it's VERY unlikely they'll catch the 30-11 Dodgers in the NL West (sit SIX games back) but with ALL second-place teams in each division assured of a playoff spot (plus two wild cards), the Padres are almost a 'lock' to be playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2006. As for the A's, they lead the Astros by 3 1/2 games in the AL West and barring a total collapse, are headed to the postseason for the THIRD straight season. Squaring off in Sunday's contest will be LA's Garrett Richards (1-2, 4.63 ERA) and Oakland's Mike Fiers (4-1, 4.86 ERA). Richards spent eight years with the Angels, before signing a two-year deal with San Diego. However, Tommy John surgery caused him to miss almost ALL of 2019 (made just three September appearances). Here in 2020, he's been AWFUL at home (7.82 ERA / team is 1-3) but very good on the road (2,82 ERA / team is 3-1). However, it's hard for Richards to match Fiers' numbers since coming to Oakland. His overall numbers are off in 2020 (1.43 WHIP and .282 BAA to go along with his 4.86 ERA), after he set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. However, the A's are 6-1 in his seven 2020 starts. Should we be surprised? Here's the rub. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 50 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 37-13 (.740) in those contests! Want more? The A's are 22-4 in Fiers' 26 home starts at Oakland Coliseum (that's an 85% winning percentage), where the A's have gone 14-5 (.737) in 2020, after going 52-29 and 50-31 the previous two seasons. With that record, just how are the A's an underdog (or pick'em) in this situation? The A's have the Astros coming to town for FIVE games in four days beginning on Labor Day and a win here would be a nice way to lead into that VERY important series. Once again, Fiers "gets the CA$H!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 218.5 | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year is on Mil/Mia Over at 3:30 ET. Here's what I wrote in support of the Bucks in Games 2 and 3 vs the Heat. Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season, 12 games better than Miami's 44-29 record. The Bucks have been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but after a Game 1 'hiccup' vs Orlando in this is the playoffs, the Bucks won FOUR straight by an average margin of 14.5 PPG. The Bucks lost Game 1, even though they led by 11 points after the first quarter, as the Heat controlled the rest of the game to win by 11. The Heat were the team to get off to a quick start in Game 2, leading 38-29 at the end of the first quarter. Miami's lead was 90-86 entering the fourth but Milwaukee had the lead back on the very first possession of the final quarter. Middleton was fouled on a three-point try, He made the first two free throws and the rebound of the third was controlled by the Bucks. Kyle Korver made a three-pointer off that rebound to cap a five-point possession for Milwaukee, which had the lead again at 91-90 for the first time since 14-13. However, the Heat then scored 13 of the next 15 points to not only reclaim the lead but push it to 103-93 with 7:50 left. Miami led by SIX with 27 seconds left but almost let it slip away. I'm sure everyone saw the frantic few seconds but in the end, Miami won 116-114 (and deservedly so). Then in Game 3, Milwaukee led by 12 points entering the fourth quarter and ultimately lost by 15!! The Bucks were outscored in the fourth quarter by 27 (40-13), which was the largest points differential in a fourth quarter of a playoff game in the shot clock era (since 1955), according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Miami ended the game on a 17-1 run. History says the Bucks are 'dead.' No NBA team ever has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series in 139 attempts in NBA playoff history! The Bucks have confounded me and MANY others as well. History says they are 'dead' but as the saying goes, "all things are true until they aren't!" Giannis Antetokounmpo finished Game 3 with 21 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists but he missed all SEVEN three-point attempts and made only 7 of 12 free throws (he made just 4 of 12 FTs in Game 1). Antetokounmpo was dealing with a twisted right ankle in Game 3, an ailment he sustained in the first quarter on a drive to the basket. It's unclear whether it will limit him in Game 4. He didn't say much about it after Game 3. Will Giannis even suit up with Milwaukee in an 0-3 'hole?' Giannis is hardly the problem for the Bucks in this series, as Milwaukee has averaged 14.3 turnovers per game and shot 35.1 percent from three-point range so far in the series, including just 20.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The fact that Miami is averaging 31.0 free-throw attempts per game, is a HUGE problem for the Bucks, as is containing Jimmy Butler. He had 40 points in Game 1 (career playoff-high), hit the game-winning free throws with no time on the clock in Game 2 and scored 30 points in Game 3, including 17 in the decisive fourth quarter! Butler's getting plenty of help from the team's other four starters this postseason (all are averaging between 10.4 and 22.3 PPG) plus rookie Herro has averaged 15.3 PPG off the bench in this year's playoffs. The Bucks no longer have ANY pressure on them (the team's 'obit' has already been written) and what I see (Giannis limited or not) is Milwaukee playing loose and for this game to 'fly' over the total. Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SF Giants at 9:15 ET. The San Francisco Giant began the 2020 season off years of 64-98, 73-89 and 77-85 from 2017 through 2019. They finished 29 games of the Dodgers last season and the Giants' three World Series titles (in 2010, 2012 and 2014) felt more like 20 years ago, not 6-10 years ago. The Arizona D'backs went 85-77 in 2019 and while no one expected the D'backs to contend with LA for the NL West title (after all, Arizona finished 21 games back of the Dodgers), an expanded playoff field in 2020 gave the Arizona faithful hope in this shortened 60-game schedule. However, after opening 13-11, Arizona lost EIGHT in a row (from Aug 19-26), before snapping its losing skid with a 7-4 win at home against the Giants on Aug 27. The D'backs then promptly lost FIVE in a row as they opened a four-game series in San Francisco last night. While the D'backs sat 14-24 prior to last night's game, the Giants could actually 'sniff' a possible playoff berth at 18-20. The D'backs beat the Giants 6-5 last night and the two teams continue their four-game series tonight at Oracle Park, as Madison Bumgarner (0-3, 9.35 ERA) takes on Trevor Cahill (0-0, 2.51 ERA). Bumgarner needs no introduction, as he opened the 2020 season with a 119-92 record (3.13 ERA) in 11 seasons (286 starts) with the Giants. He also owns three World Series rings (2010, 2012 & 2014), along with a World Series MVP in 2014 (two wins and one save / 0.43 ERA, 0.48 WHIP and 17-1 KW ratio). Bumgarner went 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 2019 for the Giants. He signed a five-year contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, worth $85 million back on December 17, 2019, Things haven't gone well for the former World Series MVP. He made his Diamondbacks debut as a Opening Day starting pitcher and after going 0-3 in four starts (team was 0-4 and he owned a 1.56 WHIP and .282 BAA to go along with his near-10.00 ERA), was placed on the disabled list on August 10, 2020. Trevor Cahill began his career with Oakland, where he pitched from 2009-11. He was terrific in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA) but from 2012 through 2019, he pitched for SEVEN different teams (including a second stint with Oakland) with VERY little success. Cahill signed a one-year, $9 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels prior to the 2019 season and had a career worst 5.98 ERA while being demoted to the bullpen. He signed a major league contract with the San Francisco Giants on Feb 26, 2020. He began the season sidelined with a fingernail injury but was put on the major league roster right before a game with Houston on Aug 21. He was only expected to throw about 50 pitches and was pulled after 55, walking four in just 1.2 innings. However, he's remained in the starting rotation and while he hasn't pitched 'deep into any of his last three starts (3.1 innings to 5.1 innings), he's allowed just four ERs on seven hits over 12.2 innings for a 2.84 ERA. Let me note that the Giants have won all THREE of Cahill's last three starts and his teams have won THREE of his four career starts vs the Giants. Meanwhile, Bumgarner comes off the IL to face the team he starred for from 2009-2019. His fastball has lost its zip (topped out at 85-87 MPH) in his last outing vs the Padres back on Aug 9, when he allowed four HRs and six ERs in just two innings. In his previous start (Aug 4 vs Houston), he allowed EIGHT runs (seven earned) on seven hits (two HRs) in just 4.1 innings. The saying is, "You can't go home" and Bumgarner learns that lesson tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-20 | Islanders -125 v. Flyers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the NY Islanders at 7:30 ET. There is something special about a Game 7, a winner-take-all situation that players in all sports have been dreaming about since they were kids! The New York Islanders took a 3-1 lead in their series against the Philadelphia Flyers when Jean-Gabriel Pageau (a trade deadline addition) scored the tie-breaking goal in the third period of a 3-2 win on Sunday night. The Islanders entered the NHL's 24-team expanded playoff as the Eastern Conference's seventh seed and advanced past the 10th-seeded Florida Panthers 3-1 in the qualifying round. They then KO'D the Metropolitan Division champion Capitals 4-1. When the Isles took the ice on Tuesday against the Philadelphia Flyers, they were ONE win away from reaching the conference finals for the first time since 1993! However, the Flyers have extended this series in a Game 7 with a 4-3 OT win on Tuesday and then a 5-4 2-OT win on Thursday. The Flyers went with Brian Elliott in goal last Sunday when they fell behind 3-1 in the series but head coach Alain Vigneault put the second-year pro Carter Hart back in goal for Game 5. Hart stopped 29 of 32 shots in that 4-3 OT win, making some spectacular saves in overtime. He then made a career-high 49 saves (on 53 shots) in Thursday's double-OT win. That's 78 saves on 85 shots these last two games, as Hart is now 9-4 with a 2.17 GAA and a .929 SP in 13 games since the restart (Aug 1). New York head coach Barry Trotz used both Varlamov and Greiss during the regular season but it's been almost ALL Varlamov in Toronto. He's been excellent (2.00 GAA and .921 SP) but the last two games, he's HARDLY been at his best. He had a SP of just .875 (28 of 32) in Game 5 and only .839 (26 of 31) in Game 5. Could Trotz turn to Greiss, who in two games since the restart, owns a .1.68 GAA and .949 (?). Trotz said after Game 6, "This is a very good hockey team that we're playing. We're pretty evenly matched. It's probably fitting that it is a Game 7." Hard to argue with that . Philly head coach Alain Vigneault has directed comebacks from down 3-1, before. He guided the New York Rangers back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Penguins in the 2014 second round and his Rangers did it again in 2015, when a 3-1 deficit didn't stop New York from beating the Washington Capitals in the second round. Is a THIRD comeback from down 3-1 in the cards? Here's the rub. Teams don't often come back from 3-1 deficits to win but teams that forced a Game 7 after being down 3-1 were 29-28 in the decisive game entering Friday's two Game 7s. However, NEITHER Colorado nor Vancouver were able to win their Game 7s last night and my bet says the Flyers will suffer a similar fate tonight The Islanders certainly would have taken a Game 7 opportunity when the regular season ended due to the pandemic on Mar. 12, as they were mired in a seven-game losing streak and one point out of the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The team's STRONG late-summer run has them on the doorstep of the franchise's first trip to the conference finals in 27. Whether it's Varlamov or Greiss in net, the Islanders 'knock that door down' in this Game 7. One last thing. All three of Philly's wins in this series have come in OT and the Isles are 10-5 in the playoffs, with all FIVE losses coming by just ONE goal. Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-20 | Cardinals +101 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 101 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the StL Cards at 5:10 ET (Game 1 of doubleheader). The Brewers, Cards and Cubs have been "the usual suspects" in the NL Central in recent years. The Brewers won the division in 2018 (made it to NLCS but lost in seven games to LA) and in 2019 earned a wild card berth. The Cubs had a late-season collapse in 2019, ending a four-year postseason run (2015-18) which included division titles in 2016 and 2017, when the Cubs won their first World series title since 1908! St Louis is well-familiar with winning, as the Cards captured a World Series title in 2006 and then again in 2011. That 2011 season was the first of FIVE straight playoff appearances for the Cards but while the team posted winning seasons in each year from 2016-18, St Louis failed to reach the postseason. That changed in 2019, as the Cards won the NL Central with a 91-71 record and advanced to the NLCS where they ran into the red-hot Nationals and got swept. The Yankees/Red Sox and Dodgers/Giants have to be considered MLB's top-two rivalries but don't tell that to Midwest fans, who know all about rivalry series when the Cards and Cubs square off. These two longtime and bitter rivals are playing a five-game series at Wrigley Field this Labor Day weekend (Fri-Mon). The series opened last night with Chicago winning 4-1, as the 23-15 Cubs opened a 4 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over the 14-15 Cardinals and 18-19 Brewers (18-19). The series continues with a Saturday doubleheader, with the Cardinals serving as the home team for the second half of the twin-bill. In fact, the Cubs and Cardinals are playing their entire 10-game season series in Chicago this season due to the rescheduling of COVID-19 postponements." Addressing that situation, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told reporters, "That's just one of those deals. I just look at the games as a game. It's clearly an anomaly that I'm sure -- well, I'm not sure of anything some days. Be careful what you say will never happen again because as soon as you think something won't happen, it will pop up. So it's obviously very different." That quote pretty much sums up the state of sports here in 2020. The Game 1 pitching matchup features St Louis veteran Adam Wainwright (3-0, 2.65 ERA) going up against Chicago rookie Adbert Alzolay (0-0, 0.00 ERA). St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. The Cards won Wainwright's first three starts of 2020 (2.00 ERA) but he then took a no-decision in a 5-4 StL loss (7 IP / 4 ERs) on Aug 25. Then this past Sunday, Wainwright turned back the clock with a complete game on his 39th birthday as the Cardinals beat the Cleveland Indians 7-2 Sunday, snapping a four-game skid. Wainwright threw a four-hitter for his 23rd career complete game and first in four years! Cubs manager David Ross has had to improvise with starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood shelved by forearm strain, The Cubs had hoped to plug Jose Quintana into his rotation slot but Quintana went on the 10-day injured list with a left lat muscle strain. Instead, the Cubs promoted top pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay to start the first half of Saturday's doubleheader (note: Ross expects to use a series of relievers to get through Game 2). Alzolay faced the Cardinals on Aug 19 and held them to one unearned run on two hits in five innings of a doubleheader game. He struck out six batters and walked only one in a 4-2 victory. Wainwright is 16-13 with a 4.15 ERA in 50 career outings against the Cubs, including 41 starts (team is 24-17). Meanwhile, Alzolay has six career appearances (three starts) with 12.1 innings pitched "under his belt." I had Wainwright last Sunday and will back him again in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 93 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF 2020 Opener is on Army at 1:30 ET. Middle Tenn St was expected to open its season Sep 5 at Duke, coming off a 4-8 season. 2019 was an aberration for the Blue Raiders, as MTSU had been bowl-eligible in NINE of the last 10 seasons. However, in the era of COVID-19, plans tend to change more often than not. The Blue Raiders will instead open their 2020 season by traveling to West Point to take on the Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Army is coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-8 season in 2019 (more later) but talk about changing plans! Of the first SEVEN schools on Army's original 2020 schedule (from Sep 4 through Oct 24) the Black Knights won't play a SINGLE one. The biggest 'loss' being Oklahoma's first visit to Michie Stadium (on Sep 26) since 1946 being canceled. And so it goes. Army does have a 12-game season scheduled, beginning with a first-ever meeting with MTSU. MTSU's Rick Stockstill enters his 15the season in Murfreesboro and he's led the Blue Raiders to EIGHT bowl games, although the school has gone just 2-6 SU and ATS. QB Asher O’Hara was an adequate passer last season (62.7% / 2,616 YP / 20-8 ratio) and he was also MTSU's best runner. He gained 1,00 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC while scoring nine TDs. The problem was, NO other RB reached 300 yards rushing. MTSU added two Power-5 transfers at the RB position but both opted out. Defense has never been a MTSU strength and after allowing 29.9 PPG last season, maybe it's a good thing that only THREE starters return. Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, left the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. However, much like MTSU, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season. Army has 13 starters back, including SEVEN from a defense that allowed 23.0 PPG on 342.0 YPG. Starting QB Hopkins is gone but both Jabari Lewis and Christian Anderson made starts last year. Lewis is the likely starter, after making five starts. Army's rushing attack averaged 297.2 YPG last season on 5.2 YPC and should give the MTSU defense fits, as Stockstill's "D" hasn’t faced the option since a 24-6 loss to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl (note" Navy ran for 366 yards on 5.5 YPC). Making matters worse, this trip to West Points wasn’t added to MTSU's schedule until August 10. With COVID-19 limiting all teams prep time last spring and this summer, properly preparing for the option seems like 'a bridge too far.' Don't forget, MTSU went 0-6 SU on the road last season, losing on average by 16.8 PPG. I'm expecting a COMFORTABLE Army win. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-20 | Padres +133 v. A's | Top | 7-0 | Win | 133 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the SD Padres at 9:40 ET. The Oakland A's were 22-10 on the morning of Aug 27th but sat out that Thursday game with the Rangers. They then moved to Houston for an important three-game series with the Astros but the two teams sat out Friday's game in protest, forcing a Saturday doubleheader. The A;s would lose both ends of that doubleheader and then pitcher Daniel Mengden tested positive for the coronavirus, forcing a postponement of Sunday's final. The A's then postponed a three-game series with Seattle Mon-Thu but are now "safe to return to play." However, as they welcome the Padres to Oakland on Friday, the team begins a stretch of 14 games in 11 days! Oakland is 22-12, two games up on Houston in the AL West. The 23-16 Padres come to Oakland with a whole new cast of characters, including starter Mike Clevinger, reliever Trevor Rosenthal, catchers Jason Castro and Austin Nola, designated hitter Mitch Moreland and outfielder Greg Allen, all acquired via trade in the days leading up to the Aug 31 deadline. Clevinger started last night for San Diego at the LAA and took a hard-luck 2-0 loss, although he pitched well (6 IP / 2 ERs). "It's the most exciting team in baseball right now," Clevinger gushed of the new-look Padres shortly after joining the club. "It's kind of the place to be right now." Zach Davies (5-2, 2.61 ERA) gets the ball for San Diego, while Oakland counters with Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.74 ERA).Davies' best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason and the Padres are VERY happy with the way he's pitched. Davies has a decision in all SEVEN of his starts (5-2) and along with his excellent ERA (2.61), he owns a superb 0.90 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .189 BAA. Luzardo pitched just 12 innings (six relief appearances) in 2019 but this season has made seven appearances, including five starts. He is far from outstanding but he's been solid, as the A's are 4-1 in his starts. However, he hasn't pitched in 11 days since suffering his first loss of the season, 3-2 at Texas last Monday. Meanwhile, the A's haven't played since losing both ends of a doubleheader at Houston last Saturday. That's NOT a great 'daily double' when facing Davies and a San Diego team 'smelling' a playoff berth for the first time since the 2006 season. I'm taking the 'juicy' price with Davies. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -135 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the AL Central champion 101-61. The Indians opened the current season just 5-6 and sat 10-9 through Aug 12. However, Cleveland has won 13 of 18 since and currently leads the AL Central by a half-game over the White Sox and 1 1/2 over the Twins. The Brewers, Cards and Cubs were "the usual suspects" heading into this year's 60-game schedule. Milwaukee won the division in 2018 (lost the NLCS to LA in seven games) and last year earned the NL's second wild card spot but blew a three-run lead at Washington in losing that winner-take-all game, 4-3 The Brewers have not been over .500 ALL season and currently are 17-19, leaving then in third-place in the division, 4 1/2 games out of first. The Cleveland Indians hope to create some breathing room in the top-heavy AL Central on Friday when they begin a three-game series against the visiting Milwaukee The Brewers have won FOUR of their last six contests heading into this opener of a five-game road trip. Friday's game continues a stretch of seven straight interleague contests for Milwaukee. Taking the mound will be Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes (1-0, 2.78 ERA) and Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 3.75). Burness was a rookie in 2018 and went 7-0 with 2.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 300 appearances (middle reliever). However, he made 32 appearances last year (four starts) going 1-5 with his ERA and WHIP ballooning to 8.82 and 1.84, respectively. He's regained his 2018 form in the first half of this season, as in seven appearances (4 starts), he's 1-0 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Burnes, struck out a career-high 10 batters and scattered three hits over six scoreless innings in a 9-1 win over Pittsburgh last Friday (team is 2-2 in his four starts). Carrasco was coming off back-to-back strong seasons entering 2019, having gone 18-6, 3.29 ERA and 17-10, 3,38 ERA, respectively. He took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but only days later, was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 on July 27 of this season, as he won his first start in 423 days! His first three starts of 2020 went well, as he allowed just five ERs over 18 innings (6 IP in each), for a 2.50 ERA and had 23 Ks in those 18 innings. As for his next three starts? NOT so good. He has lasted more than 4.1 innings in any of them, allowing 10 ERs over 12 innings for a 7.50 ERA. He has 16 Ks in those 12 innings but he's also allowed NINE walks! However, Carrasco scattered two hits and struck out six in six scoreless innings of a 2-1 (12 inn.) victory for Cleveland at St. Louis last Saturday. That's the kind of pitching the Indians need from Carrasco, with Clevinger traded to San Diego. Some good news here is that he has won both of his career starts vs the Brewers, posting a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Brewers are just NOT the same team in 2020 that they were in 2018 and 2019. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA at 56-17, TWELVE games better than the Miami Heat. However, the Bucks are in REAL danger of getting bounced out of the playoffs during the Eastern Conference semifinals, as the Heat have won both Games 1 and 2. Milwaukee jumped out to a 40-29 lead at the end of the first quarter on Monday but it was ALL Miami after that, as the Heat turned that 11-point deficit into an 11-point victory (115-104). The Heat were the team to get off to a quick start in Game 2, leading 38-29 at the end of the first quarter. Miami's lead was 90-86 entering the fourth but Milwaukee had the lead back on the very first possession of the final quarter. Middleton was fouled on a three-point try, He made the first two free throws and the rebound of the third was controlled by the Bucks. Kyle Korver made a three-pointer off that rebound to cap a five-point possession for Milwaukee, which had the lead again at 91-90 for the first time since 14-13. However, the Heat then scored 13 of the next 15 points to not only reclaim the lead but push it to 103-93 with 7:50 left. Miami led by SIX with 27 seconds left but almost let it slip away. I'm sure everyone saw the frantic few seconds but in the end, Miami won 116-114 (and deservedly so). Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 23.5 points, 12.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists vs Miami, after averaging 31.8-16.0-6.0 in the first round. Teammate Khris Middleton is averaging 25.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists, an improvement over his first round performance when he averaged just 15.0 PPG on 33.5% shooting. Speaking of shooting performances, the Bucks shot 28.0 percent (7 of 25) in Game 2. If they DON'T improve, they'll NEVER get back in the series. Miami's Jimmy Butler scored 40 points in Game 1 (a career playoff-high), while PG Dragic scored 27 and PF Adebayo added 12-17-6. Butler had just 13 points in Game 2 but his final two points (two FTs with 0:00 on the clock), secured the victory. All five Miami starters scored in double digits on Wednesday, led by PG Dragic's 23 points. He's scored at least 20 points in all six playoff games to lead Miami's SIX double-digit scorers this postseason with a line of 23.5-4.5-4.8. That balance has Miami 6-0 SU & ATS in the 2020 postseason. Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season. The Bucks have been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but after a Game 1 'hiccup' vs Orlando in this is the playoffs, the Bucks won FOUR straight by an average margin of 14.5 PPG. The Bucks are in an 0-2 'hole' vs Miami and they've 'earned' that position. Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind,' but I will NOT dismiss the NBA's best team over the last two seasons. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-20 | White Sox -135 v. Royals | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 8:05 ET. The Indians won the AL Central from 2016-18 but despite 93 wins in 2019, lost out to the Twins, who won 101 games for the first time since they won 102 games on their way to the 1965 World Series (lost that one in seven games to Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers). Cleveland and Minnesota were expected to vie for the AL Central title again in 2020 but there were some who warned, "Watch out for the White Sox!" At first glance that seems silly, as since winning the 2005 World Series, the White Sox have made just ONE postseason experience (2008) and over the previous three seasons (2017-19), had finished 35, 29 and 28.5 games out of first-place, respectively. However, a quick check of the AL Central standings Thursday morning reveals the Indians (23-14), White Sox (22-15) and the Twins (22-16) are all bunched together at the top of the division, separated by just 1 1/2 games. As for the Royals, who welcome the White Sox to KC for a four-game series beginning tonight, you'll find them in last-place at 14-23. That's NINE games back of Cleveland, which just beat KC Tuesday and Wednesday (10-1 & 5-1), after the Royals took the opener of that series 2-1 on Monday. The Royals were just in Chicago last weekend, losing TWO of three to the White Sox, dropping them to 1-5 against them on the season. This four-game series will complete the season series between the two teams. Taking the mound will be Chicago's Dylan Cease (4-2, 3.00 ERA), going up against KC's Danny Duffy (2-2, 4.11 ERA). Cease made 14 starts last season for Chicago (rookie year), going 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (team was 6-8 in his starts). He struggled in his first start of 2020 (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) but in SIX August starts, has looked pretty good. He's allowed a modest eight ERs over 33.2 innings in that span, posting a 2.14 ERA. Cease started last Saturday against the Royals in Chicago and while he allowed just one ER and one hit, he walked SIX batters and after 93 pitches was removed after 4.1 innings (Chicago would lose, 9-6). However, back on Aug 2 in KC, he allowed just two ERs over six innings of a 9-2 White Sox win over the Royals. KC's Danny Duffy is in his 10th season with the Royals. He made his debut in 2011 when the Royals lost 91 games but he was there when they went to back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015, winning it the second time. However, he's now a part of another rebuild. KC lost the first three times he took the mound in 2020 (Duffy was 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA) but the Royals then won his next three starts (Duffy was 2-0 with 3.86 ERA). Duffy also pitched (like Cease) in last weekend's series between the two teams, lasting 5.2 innings while allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits in a 6-6 KC loss (he took a no-decision). Duffy's seen plenty of the White Sox over his career, making 24 starts against Chicago while going 10-6 with 4.12 ERA (KC is 15-9). Duffy has started 188 of his 216 career appearances but checks in 62-63 for his career. He's made 20-plus starts in SEVEN of his previous nine seasons but has produced just ONE winning record in that span, going 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 42 appearances (26 starts). However, even in that season (his best as a major-leaguer, he poste a 5.50 ERA in six September starts, as the Royals went 1-5!) He's really nothing more than a journeyman and he's facing a young pitcher with real potential in Cease, who also owns the advantage of pitching for the MUCH better team! Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-20 | Padres -137 v. Angels | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the SD Padres at 7:10 ET. Mike Clevinger was the biggest name to change teams at the trade deadline, as the Cleveland Indians sent him to the San Diego Padres this past Monday. He'll make his San Diego debut tonight in Anaheim against the Angels, the team that selected Clevinger in the fourth round of the 2011 Major League Baseball draft (more later). The 23-15 Padres are FIVE games back of the LA Dodgers in the NL West but with an expanded postseason field, the Padres are "looking good" for reaching the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 season. Meanwhile, the LA Angels are currently 12-25, the owners of the AL's worst record. Mike Trout is now less than a month away from being a full-time father. Clevinger never reached the big leagues with the Angels and had elbow reconstruction surgery in 2013. He was traded to the Cleveland Indians on May 18, 2016. He made 17 appearances (10 starts) for Cleveland in 2016 but went just 3-3 with a 5.220 ERA. However, from 2017-19, he was 38-18 with a 2.96 ERA. Big things were expected for him in 2019 but he made just four starts (1-1, 3.18 ERA) for the Indians in 2020, as his season was interrupted because he was placed on the restricted list by the Indians for breaking COVID-19 protocols in early August. Taking the mound for the Angels will be Andrew Heaney (2-2, 4.62 ERA). He is coming off his best performance of 2020in his last outing, allowing just one run on four hits over 7.2 innings with 10 Ks in LA;s 3-2 win last Friday vs the Mariners. Heaney was the Angels' Opening Day starter but had failed to last at least six innings in any of his first six starts, with an ERA of 5.52 (Angels went 1-5 in those starts). The Angels are a 'MESS' and Heaney is nothing more than a journeyman pitcher (22-28 with a 4.45 ERA in 88 career appearances / 84 starts). Meanwhile, the Padres are a playoff-caliber team in 2020 , as the team's plus-50 run differential ranks SECOND to only the Dodgers among NL teams (it's 3rd-best among all 30 MLB teams!). Clevinger HAS to be excited about his opportunity for a fresh start with a new team and his debut comes against the team that originally drafted him. The fact that Clevinger is 4-0 with a 2.94 ERA in six career starts (team is 5-1) is just "icing on the cake!" Late-Breaker on the Padres. Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-20 | Raptors -1 v. Celtics | Top | 104-103 | Push | 0 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 6:30 ET. The Raptors shot poorly in Game 1 vs the Celtics (36.9% overall, including 25% on threes in going 10 of 40). Boston jumped out to a 39-23 lead at the end of the first quarter and cruised to a 112-94 win. The Raptors NEEDED to improve their play (AND shooting) in Game 2 and while Toronto struggled again (especially from three-point range), the Raptors had a 12-point lead in the late third quarter and took an eight-point lead into the final period. However, Boston DOMINATED the fourth quarter and outscored Toronto 32-21 to earn a 102-99 win and take a 2-0 lead in the series. Marcus Smart made FIVE 3-pointers in just a span of 3:04 in that final period, totaling 16 of his 19 points for the game in that span. "We're pretty pissed right now," Raptors guard Kyle Lowry said after the defeat "We're down 0-2. But we have to go back and look at the film and understand what we've done wrong and look at what we can do better." Lowry shouldn't need to look at the film, as the box score tells us that he and VanVleet have combined to shoot a 'DISGUSTING' 6 of 35 (17.1%) from three-point range in the first two games!! Smart has filled in for the injured Hayward and has averaged 14.4 & 5.2 in his five starts (20.0 PPG in two games vs Toronto), while the trio of Tatum (27.2 & 9.3), Walker (22.-4.3-4.8) and Brown (19.8 & 6.0) just keep on keepin' on! I guess one could just 'close the book' on Toronto in this series by noting that Boston has had Toronto's number all season, winning FIVE of the six matchups. In the bubble, Toronto is 0-3 against Boston and 11-0 against everyone else. However, call me stubborn (that would be fair), but I like this Toronto team and its head coach Nick Nurse. The Raptors lost the first two games against the Bucks in the conference finals last postseason but won FOUR straight on their way to an eventual NBA championship. Yeah, Kawhi is now a Clipper but Toronto took Boston 'to the wire' last time, despite another HORRIFIC shooting performance, My bet says "the THIRD time's the CHARM!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-20 | Nationals -114 v. Phillies | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies have opened this four-game series with the Washington Nationals with a pair of wins. The Phils won 8-6 on Monday and then 6-0 on Tuesday, a victory that moved them above .500 at 16-15. They continue this series again tonight tied with the Marlins, THREE games back of the division-leading Atlanta Braves. As for the defending champs, the Nationals have now lost EIGHT of 10 and find themselves in last-place in the NL East (12-21), EIGHT games back of the Braves. Taking the mound tonight will be Max Scherzer (3-1, 3.86 ERA) for the Nats, while the Phils counter with Zach Wheeler (3-0, 2.58 ERA). comes off his best outing of 2020, allowing six hits and one run over six innings with an 11-0 KW ratio. Scherzer said he adjusted his mechanics. "Made a tweak," he said about Friday's effort. "I saw some video where my hands were lower. I raised my hands and kind of squared up my shoulders and kept my left shoulder from rolling forward. And I felt like I was in a better direction. And I felt like that really allowed me to really just be able to execute high fastballs with a lot more ease." As for Wheeler, he is living up to the high expectations that came when he signed as a free agent in the offseason. He showed plenty of promise with the Mets these last few years and so far has opened 3-0 with a 2.85 ERA in six starts (Phils are 4-2). He's allowed two ERs or less in FIVE of his six starts this season, allowing a modest three ERs in the other one. The Phils are playing better ball at the moment but Wheeler hasn't fared well against the Nationals in his career, going 5-10 with a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts (team is 7-11). In STARK comparison, Scherzer is 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies, with his teams going 16-4 (note: he's 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA at Citizens Bank Park). Washington, behind Scherzer, is the play! Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-20 | Blue Jays -130 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Tor Blue Jays at 6:40 ET. The Miami Marlins were the first team to have a major COVID-19 outbreak and did not play a game from June 27 through August 4. Miami has since had THREE more games postponed due to the virus on other teams, yet currently find themselves at 16-15, just THREE games back of NL East leaders Atlanta (not bad for a team which was an NL-worst 57-105 in 2019). As for the Blue Jays, they lost a three-game series in Philadelphia due to COVID-19 concerns on the Phillies and then joined the Red Sox in protesting an August 27th game. The Blue Jays were not allowed to play their home games in Canada and didn't begin 'hosting' games at Buffalo's Sahlen Field until August 11, Through it all, Toronto is a respectable 18-16 but the Jays are stuck in the AL East, which features the 25-12 Rays and 20-14 Yankees. Wednesday's pitching matchup features Toronto left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-1, 2.92 ERA) going up against Miami rookie right-hander Sixto Sanchez (1-0, 2.25 ERA).Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with LA last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with the Dodgers that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but had a red-hot August. He allowed one run or less in all five of his August starts, posting a 1.29 ERA, with Toronto going 4-1. He took a no-decision in that lone team loss, a game the Rays won 2-1 in 10 innings. Sanchez is a 22-year-old rookie who has pitched in two major league games (none against Toronto), and he has been impressive both times. His four-seam fastball averages 98.6 and his sinker averages 97.6 mph. That said, we still know little about Sanchez, while Ryu has a 56-34 career record and a 2.98 ERA since arriving in the majors back in 2013. He also has had excellent success vs Miami, going 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA in five career starts (teams are 4-1). Greta spot for Toronto to win, as the Jays get the sad-sack Red Sox for FIVE games from Thursday through Sunday. 12-24 Boston is tied with the LAA Angels for the AL's worst record and the Blue Jays have a GREAT opportunity to close the gap in the AL East this week. First things first. Toronto wins tonight! Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. he Milwaukee Bucks knew the Heat would be a tough opponent, as Miami had won TWO of three regular season meetings between the two teams plus the Heat were coming off an impressive 4-0 sweep of the Pacers (also 4-0 ATS), in which they held Indiana to just 100.8 PPG. The Bucks sure didn't want a repeat of their Game 1 opener against Orlando in the first round, when the 14-point underdog Magic shocked the Bucks, 122-110. Milwaukee jumped out to a 40-29 lead at the end of the first quarter on Monday but it was ALL Miami after that, as the Bucks turned that 11-point deficit into an 11-point victory (115-104). Milwaukee needs to 'hit reset' here in Game 2, much like the Bucks did in immediately turning the tables on the Magic, romping 111-96 in Game 2 of that series (the first of FOUR straight double-digit wins). Miami's Jimmy Butler scored 40 points in Game 1 (a career playoff-high), while PG Dragic scored 27 and PF Adebayo added 12-17-6. Giannis just missed a triple-double (18-10-9) but made just 4 of 12 FTs, contributing to Miami outscoring Milwaukee 25-14 from the line (note: Giannis had averaged 30.6-16.0-6.0 vs Orlando. The good news was Middleton played his best game of the playoffs with 28 points and Brook Lopez chipped in 24 points. Here's the rub, "short & sweet!" Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season, while Miami was a much more modest 44-29. Milwaukee's been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but this is the playoffs. As noted, off that Game 1 loss to Orlando, the Bucks won by 15. Here, there is no double-digit pointspread to cover, so expect the Bucks to win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-01-20 | White Sox -109 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET. The Indians won the AL Central from 2016-18 but despite 93 wins in 2019, lost out to the Twins, who won 101 games for the first time since they won 102 games on their way to the 1965 World Series (lost that one in seven games to Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers). Cleveland and Minnesota were expected to vie for the AL Central title again in 2020 but there were some who warned, "Watch out for the White Sox!" On first glance that seems silly, as since winning the 2005 World Series, the White Sox have made just ONE postseason experience (2008) and over the previous three seasons (2017-19), had finished 35, 29 and 28.5 games out of first-place, respectively. However, a check of the AL standings on the morning of Sep 1 finds the 22-13 White Sox atop the division, one game up on the Indians and 2 1/2 games up on the Twins. Chicago beat Minnesota 8-5 last night, giving the White Sox 12 wins in their last 14 games (Chicago was just 10-11 in game played through ). In stark contrast, the Twins opened the current season 10-2, before going a modest 10-8 over their next 18 games. The Twins seemed 'stuck in neutral' during that span (Aug 6-24) but things have fallen apart for Minnesota, recently. Last night's defeat made it SIX consecutive losses for the Twins. The teams play the second contest of this three-game series tonight, as Michael Pineda (0-0, 0.00 ERA) takes on Dallas Keuchel (5-2, 2.70 ERA). Pineda will make his 2020 debut on Tuesday night. Pineda made his MLB debut with Seattle back in 2011 but was traded to the Yankees in 2012. Injuries kept him sidelined until 2014 when he made 14 starts, going 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. However, from 2015-17, he was just 26-26 with an ERA of 4.56. Tommy John surgery sidelined him in July of 2017. Pineda signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Minnesota Twins in December of 2017 but would not pitch at all in 2018 due to a torn meniscus in his right knee.. He was 11-5 (4.01 ERA) for Minnesota in 2019 but his season was cut short when he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. This marks ho=is first start since Sep 6 of last season. What to expect? Who knows? Keuchel won the Cy Young award in the AL during the 2015 season (20-8, 2.48 ERA) but over the next three seasons was a modest 35-28 (3.99 ERA) for an outstanding Houston team. He was a free agent in 2019 but couldn't find a taker until Atlanta signed him on June 7, 2019 him to a one year $13 million deal. Was he worth it? You make the call! He went 8-8 with a 3,75 ERA in 19 regular season starts (team was 10-9). Atlanta then lost BOTH of his postseason starts. I was skeptical of Keuchel coming into 2020 but he's proved me wrong. He has a decision in each of his seven starts (see above) and enters this contest off THREE straight wins during which he's posted a 2.29 ERA. I'll back him here against the 'free-falling' Twins, who start can only counter with Pineda, who HAS to be considered an unknown quantity at this time. Keuchel owns a 1.04 WHIP in 2020 (best WHIP came in his Cy Young-winning season of 2015 at 1.02) and his BAA of .204 is a career-low! Good luck...Larry |
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09-01-20 | Islanders v. Flyers +108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 108 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Phi Flyers at 7:00 ET. The New York Islanders took a 3-1 lead in their series against the Philadelphia Flyers when Jean-Gabriel Pageau (a trade deadline addition) scored the tie-breaking goal in the third period of a 3-2 win on Sunday night. The Islanders entered the NHL's 24-team expanded playoff as the Eastern Conference's seventh seed and advanced past the 10th-seeded Florida Panthers 3-1 in the qualifying round. They the KO'D the Metropolitan Division champion Capitals 4-1. Now, the Isles are ONE win away from reaching the conference finals for the first time since 1993! The Flyers had 89 points in the regular season (NYI had 80) but went 3-0 in the seeding round, giving them the East's No. 1 seed. Philly got past Montreal 4-2 but now find themselves in a position in which they must win THREE in a row vs the red-hot Islanders to 'stay alive.' History says three straight wins are unlikely, as teams trailing 3-1 are 29-284 (9.3 percent) in winning a best-of-7 Stanley Cup Playoff series, including 0-6 in the first round this season! However, while coming back to win this series is CLEARLY a longshot, winning Game 5 is NOT! The Flyers went with Brian Elliott in goal on Sunday and he allowed three goals on 30 shots (.909). I'd be really surprised if Philadelphia head coach Alain Vigneault didn't turn back to Carter Hart in goal. The second-year pro went 24-13-3 (2.42 GAA & .914) in the regular season and improved on those numbers since the Aug 1 restart, allowing 2.08 GAA with a .931 SP in 11 games (7-4-0). Getting back to Alain Vigneault, he has directed comebacks from down 3-1, before. He guided the New York Rangers back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Penguins in the 2014 second round and his Rangers did it again in 2015, when a 3-1 deficit didn't stop New York from beating the Washington Capitals in the second round. Is a THIRD comeback from down 3-1 in the cards? That may be a 'bridge too far' but a Game 5 win is my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -148 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 10:00 ET Tuesday morning. |
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09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -1 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 5:30 ET. The Toronto Raptors were DOMINATED by the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of their second round series, 112-94. All five Boston starters finished in double digits, with Tatum and Smart leading the way with 21 points apiece. Meanwhile, Toronto starters shot a combined 4 of 25 from three-point range, including 3 of 16 by VanVleet and Lowry. Raptors head coach Nick Nurse summed up the defeat saying, "Tough day for us, right? Nothing was much fun out there today. They were great. We weren't very good. So we're going to have to bounce back." I guess maybe this was no surprise. Boston has now won seven consecutive Game 1s, the longest such streak for the Celtics since taking 11 consecutive 1-0 series leads between the start of the 1985 playoffs and the 1987 NBA Finals. As for Toronto, the Raptors have lost Game 1 in 14 of their last 18 series! Want more? Toronto is 0-2 against Boston at Disney, losing by a combined 40 points and not leading for a SINGLE moment in those two games. BTW...The Raptors are 11-0 at Disney against everybody else! I 'bit' on Toronto in Game 1 and 'got burned' but I will NOT shy away from playing them here in Game 2. The Raptors' starting-five against the Nets consisted of guards VanVleet (21.3-4.0-7.8) and Lowry (12.5-7.0-4.8), SF Anunoby (9.0 & 5.5), PF Siakam (20.8-7.8-4.8) and center Gasol (6.3 & 4.5). PF Ibaka (19.8 7 10.3) and SG Powell (17.5-4.-4.5) both had HUGE series coming off the bench. I noted how poorly Van Vleet and Lowry shot in Game 1 and I'll add Siakam's poor effort (13 points on 5 of 16 shooting plus only 3 rebounds and 2 assists) here. Ibaka had 15 & 9 and Powell 10 points but combined to shoot just 8 of 22 from the floor (36.4%). Boston did EVERYTHING right in Game 1 plus got a HUGE game from undersized center Theis, who 13 points and 15 rebounds. Can they possibly play that well again and can Toronto possibly play that poorly again? The Celtics are now 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the postseason but my bet is that we see the Toronto team we've seen for most of this season in this one, the team that was 57-19 SU and 44-31-1 ATS prior to Sunday's Game 1. Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +6 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the OKC Thunder at 9:00 ET. The Rockets and the Thunder were each 44-28 in the regular season and met in this first round series as the West's No. 4 (Hou) and No. 5 (OKC) seeds, respectively. Houston won Games 1 and 2 easily but OKC rebounded with a 119-107 OT win and then a 117-114 victory. The Rockets had excellent opportunities to win in each of those two games but were eventually done in by poor three-point shooting and the terrific play of OKC's PGs Schroder and Paul (duo combined for 111 points in the back-to-back wins). Game 5 was played Saturday and the good news for Houston was that Russell Westbrook made his first appearance in the series. Westbrook was NOT a big factor with a line of 7-6-7 in 24 minutes. The key was Harden breaking out of a shooting slump by making 11 of 15 shots (31 points), while Covington scored 22 points (he had averaged just 8.0 PPG the first four games). As for OKC, the Thunder starters shot 1 of 21 on threes, while the entire team made only 7 of 46 (15.2%). Paul was "off his game" (16-6-3), while Schroder was tossed after playing just 21 minutes (he did have 19 points). OK, has Houston re-established itself with Game 5's 114-80 rout? Was Game 5's 'ugly' shooting performance by OKC due to Houston's D or did OKC just 'stink out the joint?' Not only did Paul and Schroder under perform but rookie Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari were all "worse than AWFUL.' Dort, whose defense has contained Harden for the first three games of this series, made just 3 of 16 shots. Gilgeous-Alexander was 2-for-8 for four points and Gallinari missed all five points while scoring ONE point. Note that Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 17.0 PPG on the season, while Gallinari averaged 15.2. I believe OKC bounces back in a big way here and remember that while both teams went 44-28 during the regular season, OKC was also an NBA-best 44-28 ATS, while Houston was only 33-39. Take the points and don't be surprised if we are headed for a Game 7. Good luck...Larry
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08-31-20 | Rays v. Yankees -140 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The NY Yankees were the clear favorite to represent the AL in the 2020 World Series before this 60-game season began on July 23, while the LA Dodgers held a similar position in the NL. As the month of August comes to a close, the Dodgers have "held up their end" with a MLB-best 26-10 record, FIVE games better than any NL team (note: LA's plus-90 run-differential is 48 runs better than any MLB team). As for the Yankees, they opened 8-1 and were 16-6 in games played through Aug 17 but suddenly lost SEVEN in a row. New York has rebounded to win THREE in a row over the weekend, edging the Mets on Saturday when the Yankees won 2-1 on a wild pitch in the 9th and then sweeping a doubleheader on Sunday (both games were won in the 8th-inning of scheduled seven-inning games). Coming to the Bronx on Monday for a three-game series are the Tampa Bay Rays. The 24-11 Rays currently own the AL's best record and enter this series having won 18 of their last 21 contests, giving them a 3 1/2 lead over New York in the AL East. The two division rivals have already played SEVEN times, with the Rays taking SIX of them (won 3 of 4 at Tropicana Field from Aug 7-9 and swept a 3-game series at Yankee Stadium from Aug 18-20). Taking the mound in the first contest of this three-game series will be Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow (1-1, 5.14 ERA) and New York's Gerrit Cole (4-1, 3.51 ERA). Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. He's made six starts in 2020 and his ERA has ballooned to 5.14 and his WHIP is up to 1.36 (Rays are 4-2). Cole was brilliant in his two seasons with the Astros (208 and 2019), going 35-10 with 602 Ks in 412.2 innings. His WHIP in 2018 was 1.03 and in 2019 was 0.89 (BAA was .198 in 2018 and .186 in 2019). He famously signed a $324 million contract with the Yankees on December 16, 2019, the largest contract in major league history for a pitcher. Cole has continued his excellent pitching in 2020 with the Yankees (0.95 WHIP with a 53-8 KW ratio and a .204 BAA). However, Cole entered his last start (Aug 26 in Atlanta) trying to become the first AL pitcher to win 21 straight regular-season decisions. The all-time record is 24 by Carl Hubbell, followed by Roy Face (22). Cole, Roger Clemens, Jake Arrieta and Rube Marquard were tied at 20. Cole allowed five ERs in five innings, taking a 5-1 loss. He also saw his streak of 28 consecutive regular-season starts with a loss end (Clemens holds the record with 30 straight!). In this COVID-19 shortened season of 60 games, division rivals play each other 10 times. With SEVEN meetings already in the books (remember, Rays lead the series 6-1), this three-game series will be the final regular season games between the Rays and Yanks. Pretty safe to say that this is a "must-win" series for the Yankees and which pitcher would you want on the mound if you were facing this scenario? Key Yankee regulars are getting back on the field and who better to take the mound in Game 1 of this series than Cole? Good luck...Larry |
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08-30-20 | Indians v. Cardinals +113 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 113 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the AL Central champion 101-61 Minnesota Twins (101-61). The Indians opened the current season just 5-6 but Cleveland's won 11 of its last 14 and at 21-12 now sit atop the AL Central. The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but have gone just 10-12 after that hot start and at 20-14, now find themselves 1 1/2 games back of the Indians (don't forget the White Sox, who are 20-13). The St Louis franchise is well-familiar with winning, as the Cards captured a World Series title in 2006 and then again in 2011.That 2011 season was the first of FIVE straight playoff appearances for the Cards but while the team posted winning season in each year from 2016-18, St Louis failed to reach the postseason. That changed in 2019, as the Cards won the NL Central with a 91-71 record and advanced to the NLCS where they ran into the red-hot Nationals and got swept. A COVID-19 outbreak had the Cardinals away from the playing field from July 31 through Aug 14. The Cards returned to play on Aug 14 and went 8-5 through their first 13 games but enter this contest having lost FIVE of six, including FOUR straight (Cards sit 11-13). The teams conclude their three-game series this afternoon, after the Indians won 14-2 on Friday (20 hits) and then with the two teams accounting for only NINE hits (Cleveland had five), the Indians eked out a second straight win in St Louis 2-1 in 12 innings. Taking the mound on Sunday will be Aaron Civale (3-3, 3.15 ERA) for Cleveland and Adam Wainwright (2-0, 2.88 ERA) for St Louis. Civale made 10 starts for Cleveland in 2019 (his first) and posted a 2.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. However, he had little to show for it, going 3-4 (Indians went 5-5). Civale has pitched well again in 2020, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1,03 WHIP but still checks in at only 3-3. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. The Cards won Wainwright's first three starts of 2020 (2.00 ERA) but he took a no-decision in his last outing, a 5-4 StL loss (7 IP / 4 ERs). I like the veteran Wainwright to keep the Cards from getting swept at home by the Indians, going up against the 25-year-old Civale. The Indians have surged into first-place in the AL Central but the teams' hitting woes remain an issue. Cleveland was hitting just .217 as a team entering this series and while the Indians explode for 14 runs on 20 hits in Friday's romp, it was 'back to usual Saturday, getting just FIVE hits in 37 ABs (.137), The TWO runs were enough to beat St Louis yesterday, although the Cards missed some great scoring opportunities in extra-innings to score. "PERFECT" spot for the veteran Wainwright to lead the Cards to a win. Good luck...Larry |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Series Opener (Bos/Tor) is on the Tor Raptors at 1:00 ET. I first posted this back on Wednesday (a scheduled Thursday tip-off) but as EVERYONE knows all games scheduled from Wed-Fri were postponed due to a protest by NBA players. This Game 1 is now slated to be the first of THREE games played on Sunday. NOTHING about my game analysis has changed! The Celtics and Raptors are BOTH coming off 4-0 sweeps, Boston taking down longtime rival Philadelphia, while the Raptors cruised past the over-matched Nets. PF Tatum (27.0 & 9.8) is just 22 and SG Jaylen Brown (21.5 & 5.8) only 23. That duo, along with vet PG Kemba Walker (24.3-4.3-3.8), have led the way for Boston. The loss of SF Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1 in the regular season) was lost after an injury in Game 1 and remains out for this series. Marcus Smart was inserted into the starting lineup for Hayward and averaged 12.0-4.0-3.0. The Celtics used their center combo of Theis (8.5 & 3.8) and Kanter (5.5 & 6.0) successfully against Philly. The Raptors' starting-five consists of guards VanVleet (21.3-4.0-7.8) and Lowry (12.5-7.0-4.8), SF Anunoby (9.0 & 5.5), PF Siakam (20.8-7.8-4.8) and center Gasol (6.3 & 4.5). PF Ibaka (19.8 7 10.3) and SG Powell (17.5-4.-4.5) both had HUGE series coming off the bench. Lowry is battling an injury (he's listed as day-to-day) and as his above numbers indicate, they are down from his season averages of 19.4-5.0-7.5. Boston has won THREE of the four meetings with Toronto during the regular season, including a 122-100 rout on Aug 7. However, I believe that only serves as extra-motivation for the defending champs. Obviously, a 100%-healthy Lowry would be preferred (maybe the extra rest will help?) but VanVleet has become an elite player and is a more consistent shooter than Lowry. The Celtics didn't miss Hayward vs the Sixers but his absence will be felt against this foe. The Raptors, led by Kawhi, won the franchise's first-ever title last season but sans Kawhi (as well as Danny Green), this year's Toronto team looks every bit a contender for back-to-back titles. I will back them in a big way in this Game 1. Good luck...Larry |
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08-30-20 | Twins -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is a run-line play on the Min Twins at 1:10 ET. Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019, finishing 101-61. It was the franchise's first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. In stark contrast to Minnesota's 2019 season, the Detroit Tigers were a MLB-worst 47-114 in 2019. Minnesota opened the current season 10-2 but after losing both ends of Saturday's doubleheader in Detroit, has now gone just 10-12 over its last 22 games. At 20-14, the Twins have not only fallen behind the 21-12 Indians for first-place in the AL Central (by 1 1/2 games) but the 20-13 White Sox have also caught and passed them. Detroit surprised by opening the current season 9-5 but the Tigers then lost NINE in a row from Aug 11-20. However, after yesterday's doubleheader sweep, the Tigers have suddenly won SIX of their last eight (Detroit is currently 15-16). Detroit will try to complete a sweep of a three-game home series against Minnesota Twins on Sunday, sending rookie Casey Mize (0-1, 7.04 ERA) to the hill to face Minnesota's Kenta Maeda (4-0, 2.21 ERA). Minnesota's acquisition of Kenta Maeda from the Los Angeles Dodgers in February has turned into one of the better offseason moves by any MLB team. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gave Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. He made that clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. So far, so good. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts, with Minnesota going 5-1. The lone loss came at Pittsburgh on when Maeda left with a 5-3 lead, only to see the bullpen allow THREE runs in the final two innings (no-decision for Maeda). The Detroit Tigers selected Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft back on June 25, 2018. He inked a deal with the Tigers that featured a $7.5 million signing bonus. He began 2019 in Lakeland and was the Opening Day starter. After making four starts for Lakeland with an 0.35 ERA, the Tigers promoted Mize to the Erie SeaWolves of the Class AA & in his first start for Erie, he tossed a no-hitter. He began the current season in the minors but was promoted to the major league on August 19 and made his MLB debut that evening against the Chicago White Sox. He lasted just 4.1 innings in his debut (allowed three ERs on seven hits) and got a no-decision in a 5-3 Detroit loss. He wasn't any better in his second start this past Monday, going 3.1 innings while allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits, taking the first loss of his career (Chicago won 9-3). Yes, it's just two starts but a 7.04 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP and a .333 BAA makes one say 'O-U-C-H!' Maeda has taken on the role Minnesota's 'ace' and what ace's do is 'stop the bleeding." I'm laying the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-20 | Dodgers v. Rangers +140 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (IL) is on the Tex Rangers at 7:05 ET. The LA Dodgers arrived in Arlington, Tx with MLB's best record (24-9) and its best run-differential plus-86). I read Friday morning on ESPN.com (Buster Olney) that those numbers translated into a 117-win season and a plus-422 run differential over a 162-game schedule. However, the Rangers, who entered last night just 11-19, came away with a 6-2 win. It's Game 2 of this three-game set and a win tonight (or Sunday) would give the Rangers their first series win since they took TWO of three from Colorado (Aug 14-16). The 24-10 Dodgers and 12-19 Rangers are hardly comparable teams but I'm backing the Rangers tonight because of the pitching matchup (or should I say, pitching mismatch). LA's Ross Stripling (3-1, 5.46 ERA) will take the mound going up against Lance Lynn (4-0, 1.59 ERA) of Texas. This is Stripling's fifth season with the Dodgers and he entered 2020 with a 20-24 record (3.51 ERA) over 136 appearances (52 starts). He's been a regular part of LA's starting rotation so far and the Dodgers have won FIVE of his six starts, despite his 5.46 ERA and 1,42 WHIP. I guess it helps when one pitches for a team leading all of MLB in runs scored (190) and HRs (63). Moving over to the Texas side of tonight's pitching matchup, we find nine-year veteran Lance Lynn. He's logged almost 1400 innings over 254 appearances (230 starts) with a 102-68 record (3.52 ERA in his career). Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. He's only allowed just eight ERs in his seven starts with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with that 1.59 ERA. Note that in his career, opponents have batted ,243 against Lynn, so he's nearly 100 points below that here in 2020! The Rangers were 10-1 in Lynn's home starts in 2019 and 3-0 in his four home starts here in 202 (team is 4-0). Texas enters this game 15-5 in Lynn's 20 home starts since he became a Ranger. What is notable about this particular start? It just might be the last for Lynn in a Rangers' uniform. He is rumored to be one the most likely players to be traded by Texas before Monday's deadline (Texas currently sits five games out of a playoff position). "No team wants to be dismantled as we get going here," Lynn said, according to MLB.com, after he beat Oakland 3-2 this past Monday. "We played well for a stretch, and then we played really bad. We didn't all come here to lose and not make a run at the playoffs. That's what we are all about." I will NOT pass on Lynn at this 'juicy' price! Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the Hou Rockets at 6:30 ET. The OKC Thunder had to like their chances against the Houston Rockets heading into this first round series, as former Thunder star Russell Westbrook (27.2-7.9-7.0) was expected to be sidelined for the entire series with a quad injury (more later). However, the Rockets would dominate the first two games of the series, winning 123-108 and 111-98. Harden (29.0-8.0-6.0) led the way but FIVE other Houston players averaged double digits in the first two contests. Meanwhile, the Thunder shot just 44.2 percent as a team. Veteran Chris Paul just missed a triple-double in Game 1 (20-10-9) but he recorded an 'ugly' minus-36 rating in Game 2 (14-6-2), the WORST of anyone on the court! Another big key to OKC's lack of success was the play of backup PG Dennis Schroder, who missed the first six of OKC's first eight games in Orlando. He was back for this series but he averaged just 9.5 PPG and 4.5 APG the first two games (he averaged 18.9 & 4.0 in the regular season). However, as the series resumes on Saturday for Game 5, it's all tied at two and Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder are two of the biggest reasons behind the Thunder making this a best-of-three series. Paul and Schroder, the Thunder's starting and backup PGs, were not often on the floor together for most of this season. However, Oklahoma City head coach Billy Donovan has elected to go to a small lineup, with those two being the primary beneficiaries. Paul and Schroder combined to average 26.5 points and shoot 39.7 percent from the floor as OKC fell behind 0-2 but in the last two games, the duo has combined to average 55.5 points, while shooting 52.6 percent (Paul's had 26 points in both Games 3 & 4, while Schroder chipped in 29 and 30 points, respectively. Houston has leaned heavily on a small lineup since the trade deadline, making up for what it lost in rim protection by switching relentlessly on "D" and wearing opponents down on the perimeter. It worked perfectly in Games 1 and 2. However, in the OT of Game 3, Donovan took out center Steven Adams and went with a lineup where 6-foot-10 Danilo Gallinari, the best three-point shooter on the Thunder, was their biggest man on the floor. Speaking of three-point shots, the Rockets have set a playoff record this series for most three-point attempts. They 58 from behind the arc in Monday's loss to break the record they had set with 56 tries in Game 2. Harden remains Houston's leader, averaging 32.0-7.8-8.8 but with this Game 5 being pushed back from Wednesday to Saturday because of the protests, Russell Westbrook is expected to play. Westbrook went through full-speed, 5-on-5 action on Thursday and looked "as explosive as ever." All reports are, he WILL play. Plus, as noted above, FOUR others are averaging in double digits. The big surprise has been 12-year veteran Jeff Green. he was signed by the Houston Rockets to a 10-day contract on Feb 18, 20202, after being waived by Utah. The Rockets announced that they had signed Green for the remainder of the season in late February and he's been Houston's second-best player this series, averaging 19.3 PPG. Yes, OKC has won back-to-back games but Houston could have won either one. Houston led by four points into the 4th-quarter in Game 3 and led by FIVE (102-97) with less than one minute to go. House tied the game at 104-104 with 9.5 seconds left but missed the second free throw. The game went to OT, where the Thunder outscored the Rockets 15-3. In Game 4, Houston led by one with about 1 1/2 minutes left (108-107) but lost 117-114. In the end, the Rockets need Harden to "come up big." He went 6-for-13 from behind the arc in the opener but he's lust 11-for-39 (28.2 percent) from behind the three-point line over the last three games. I expect "just that." The bonus is the likely return of Westbrook. How much he actually contributes is unknown but either way, expect the Rockets to make it a convincing win in Game 5. NO late-game missteps in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-20 | Indians v. Cardinals -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cardinals at 1:15 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the AL Central champion 101-61 Minnesota Twins (101-61). The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but have gone just 10-10, since. The Indians opened 5-6 but after a 14-2 win at St Louis on Friday night, have caught the Twins atop the AL Central at 20-12 (Cleveland's won 10 of its last 13). The St Louis franchise is well-familiar with winning, as the Cards captured a World Series title in 2006 and then again in 2011.That 2011 season was the first of FIVE straight playoff appearances for the Cards but while the team posted winning season in each year from 2016-18, St Louis failed to reach the postseason. That changed in 2019, as the Cards won the NL Central with a 91-71 record and advanced to the NLCS where they ran into the red-hot Nationals and got swept. A COVID-19 outbreak had the Cardinals away from the playing field from July 31 through Aug 14. The Cards returned to play on Aug 14 and went 8-5 through their first 13 games but enter this contest having lost FOUR of five, including THREE straight (Cards sit 11-12). Saturday's starting pitchers will be Cleveland's Carrasco (2-3, 4.50 ERA) and the St Louis' Jack Flaherty (2-0, 1.98 ERA). Carrasco was coming off back-to-back strong seasons entering 2019, having gone 18-6, 3.29 ERA and 17-10, 3,38 ERA, respectively. Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but only days later, was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 on July 27, as he won his first start in 423 days! His first three starts of 2020 went well, as he allowed just five ERs over 18 innings (6 IP in each), for a 2.50 ERA and had 23 Ks in those 18 innings. As for his last three starts? NOT so good. He has lasted more than 4.1 innings in any of them, allowing 10 ERs over 12 innings for a 7.50 ERA. He has 16 Ks in those 12 innings but he's also allowed NINE walks! The Cards' Flaherty made just six appearances (five starts) back in 2017 but joined the rotation full-time in 2018, going 8-9 with a solid ERA (3.34) and WHIP (1.11). He was superb in 2019, despite a modest 11-8 record over 39 appearances (33 starts). His ERA was 2.75, his WHIP 0.97 and his BAA was .192. Like most (all?) St Louis starters, Flaherty is still building arm strength since the team's 17-day COVID-19 shutdown. However, he's 2-0 in three starts (Cards are 3-0) in 202, posting a 1.98 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and .160 BAA. Neither starter has a history against their opponent (one start for each pitcher), so I'm going with "current form." Carrasco may just not be back to 100% (he sure hasn't looked that way his last three), while arm strength or not, Flaherty's numbers are TERRIFIC. My bet says Carrasco wishes those Cleveland bats had saved some of those runs (14) and hits (20) from last night's game. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. The Cards are the play. Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-20 | Lightning v. Bruins +102 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Afternoon Delight is on the Bos Bruins at 12:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Saturday morning. |
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08-28-20 | Padres -108 v. Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 8:40 ET. The San Diego Padres are coming off a 70-92 season in 2019 (36 games back of LA) but they are hoping that a shortened 60-game season (and an expanded playoff format) would allow them to break a drought of 13 consecutive non-playoff years, as well as NINE straight losing seasons. San Diego opened 6-2, went 5-5 in its next 10 but then lost FIVE in a row. However, the Padres have rebounded to win EIGHT of their last 10 and are back in "playoff position" at 19-14. The Colorado Rockies were just 71-91 in 2019 (35 games back of the Dodgers) but surprised all by opening 11-3, However, at 12-5, Colorado would lose 10 of its next 11 games, including SEVEN in a row from Aug 17-23. The Rockies welcome the Padres to Coors Field having won THREE in a row at Arizona, missing a chance at a four-game sweep when Thursday's game was postponed due to the many protests all sports are dealing with. Colorado is back above .500 (16-15) but will be tested in this four-game home series with San Diego. Friday's pitching matchup features two starters that have each pitched VERY well in 2020, Zach Davies (4-2, 3.03 ERA) of San Diego and Kyle Freeland (2-1, 2.87 ERA) of Colorado. Davies' best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason and the Padres are VERY happy with the way he's pitched. Davies has allowed more than two ERs in just two of his six starts (both times he allowed only three ERs) plus owns a superb 0.84 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .183 average. Freeland went 11-11 (4.10 ERA) as a rookie in 2017 and then had a breakout 2018 season. He was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA, as the Rockies went 23-10 in his 33 starts. However, he was AWFUL in 2019, going 3-11 with a 6.73 ERA & 1.58 WHIP with Colorado going 8-14 in his 22 starts. So what's up in 2020? Freeland has pitched at least six innings and allowed no more than three runs in each of his SIX starts this season. Colorado won his first four starts but have lost his last two (3.75 ERA in those two team losses). I feel as if Davies owns a slight edge over Freeland but what is more important to me here is, the overall play of the two teams. While the Padres come in having won EIGHT of their last 10, the Rockies had lost SEVEN straight before winning three in a row over an Arizona team that currently owns an EIGHT-game losing streak. Note: Colorado's three wins over the D'backs in Arizona all came by just ONE run! "The Price is Right" on San Diego in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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08-28-20 | Braves v. Phillies -140 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Phillies decided not to play the finale of their three-game series against the Nationals on Thursday, just a few hours before the first pitch. After the unexpected day off, the Phillies will begin a three-game series against the visiting Atlanta Braves on Friday, looking for a FOURTH straight win. This marks the final regular-season series between the two NL East rivals, with the Braves owning a 4-3 edge in the series so far. Atlanta has won the NL East in each of the last two seasons and is coming off an impressive sweep of a doubleheader against the NY Yankees, 2-1 and 5-1 on Wednesday. The Braves had a regularly scheduled day off on Thursday and enter Friday looking for their third straight win and fifth in six games. The Braves are currently 18-12, two games up on the 14-12 Marlins and four up on the 12-14 Phillies. Tonight's starting pitching matchup is a 're-hook' from last Friday night, when Philly's Zack Wheeler (3-0, 2.76 ERA) squares off against Atlanta's Robbie Erlin (0-0, 5.14 ERA). Neither pitcher earned a decision last Friday in Atlanta's 6-5 win. Wheeler is living up to the high expectations that came when he signed as a free agent in the offseason. He's pitched into at least the sixth inning in ALL five of his 2020 starts, including a seven-inning effort (allowed five hits and two ERs) last Friday in Atlanta. Erlin's in his 7th season and has made a modest 111 appearances (just 40 starts) and will take a 13-20 career mark (4.60 ERA) into this contest. Erlin was released by the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates three weeks ago and selected off waivers by Atlanta on Aug 7. After one relief appearance, he's made back-to-back starts, pitching four scoreless innings against Miami on Aug 16, before going four innings again vs Philly last Friday (allowed two ERs). Wheeler seems poised to fulfill his high expectations, while Erlin is the VERY definition of a journeyman. I REALLY like Wheeler in this quick turnaround! Good luck...Larry |
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08-26-20 | A's -140 v. Rangers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Oak A's at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers snapped an eight-game losing streak with their 3-2 win over the Oakland A's on Monday (BTW...Texas with Lynn was my Ultimate Underdog Play). However, the A's made it NINE losses in their last 10 games for the Rangers last night, with a 10-3 rout of Texas. The teams play the third game of this four-game series on Wednesday, with Oakland owning the AL's best record (21-10) and Texas 'limping along' at 11-18. Oakland owns a four-game lead over the three-time defending division champion Astros, while the Rangers are already NINE games back at the season's mid-point. It seems like 'light years' ago that Texas played in back-to-back World Series but actually it was 2010 & 2011. The Rangers entered this 60-game season off THREE straight losing seasons (223-263, .486) and will likely finish even worse this season, as their 11-18 mark gives them a winning percentage of only .379. Taking the mound tonight will be Oakland's Mike Fiers (3-1, 5.81 ERA), opposed by Texas lefty Kolby Allard (0-2, 7.82 ERA). Fiers is making his seventh start of the year and even though his numbers are off from 2019, the A's are 5-1 in his six starts (more in a bit). He set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland but his ERA is too high in 2020 (5.81), as is his WHIP (1.55) and BAA (.305). However, he faces a VERY poor Texas team, while pitching for the team with the AL's best record. His mound opponent is the untested Allard, who in four starts has lasted just 12.2 innings while allowing 11 ERs on 17 hits. To go along with his 'ugly' 7.00-plus ERA, he has a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent's BAA of .315. Allard didn't make it out of the first inning in Seattle last Friday, allowing four runs in a 7-4 loss. He will either open the game on the mound or be the bulk pitcher in an opener strategy. Want more? When Fiers takes the mound, the A's usually win. Here's the rub. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 49 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 36-13 (.735) in those contests! Any reason NOT to play the A's and Fiers? Good luck...Larry |
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08-26-20 | Twins +100 v. Indians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 10:00 ET Wednesday morning. |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The seventh-seeded Dallas Mavericks were considered a long shot to get past the second-seeded Los Angeles Clippers in this best-of-seven series. However, despite injuries and ejections, the Mavs find themselves tied at two-all with the Clippers, turning this into a best-of-three series. Luka Doncic put the Mavericks on his shoulders in Game 4, despite playing on a tender left angle and with Kristaps Porzingis (averaged 20.4 & 9. 5 during the regular season) out with a sore right knee. He led Dallas back from a 21-point first-half deficit and capped a 43-17-13 triple-double by hitting a game-winning three-pointer at the overtime buzzer in a 135-133 Maverick victory. In the process, he became the youngest player in NBA history with a 40-point triple-double during the playoffs. LA's Kawhi Leonard had 32 & 9 for the Clippers and has been his usual dominant self this series, averaging 33.0-10.0-5.0, while connecting on 50 percent of his shots. However, LA's other superstar (Paul George), has seemingly 'lost his cape!' George is averaging a modest 15.3-7.3-3.8 through four games, while shooting an abysmal 29.0 percent, including 22.2% on threes. The Clippers would likely be on the verge of closing out the series, if George had played to expectations. Instead, the Clippers are faced with a HUGE Game 5. However, let's NOT forget that even with an under-performing George, LA built a 21-point lead in Game 4 vs Dallas. The good news for Dallas is Porzingis had an MRI following the game on Sunday and the results were negative. However, Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle said Monday that he is still a game-time decision for Game 5. The NBA playoffs rarely produce a "surprise champion" and there were (are) very few who didn't believe that this year's champion would come from a 'pool' of just four teams. Those being Milwaukee and Toronto in the East and the two LA teams in the West. The Raptors have already swept their first round opponent, while the Bucks and Lakers (the league's two No. 1 seeds) both lead their respective opponents, 3-1. OK Clippers, it's your turn to "turn it up a notch." I'm laying the points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-25-20 | Reds v. Brewers -109 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Tuesday morning. |
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08-25-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -104 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the TB Lightning at 7:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Tuesday morning. |
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08-24-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Por Blazers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126-122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard. Talk was, the Lakers could be had, after some lackluster play in their eight games in Orlando, pre-playoffs. The Lakers clinched the West's No. 1 seed back on Aug 3 and then went just 1-4 (0-5 ATS) the rest of the way, needing a Kyle Kuzma shot at the buzzer to capture their lone win. Lillard had 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, leading a balanced attack that saw McCollum score 21 points while center Jusuf Nurkic (17.9 & 11.8 in Orlando) added 16 & 15. Nurkic's backup, Hassan Whiteside, chipped in 7 & 8, with his plus/minus of plus-13 ranking 2nd to only Lillard's plus-19 for the game. Defensively, Portland held the Lakers to 35.1 percent shooting from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!). A.D. had 28 & 11 and LBJ added his 24th career playoff triple-double (23-17-16) but LA's dynamic duo combined to shoot 1 of 10 on threes. LA's starters shot a combined 3 of 23 on threes. Kuzma, LA's only other consistent scorer during the regular season, added 14. LA's center combo of McGee and Howard (10 points / 13 rebounds) was outplayed by Nuric alone, not even adding in Whiteside's contributions. All of a sudden, the Lakers DID look very vulnerable, while Lillard and the Blazers were becoming 'the story' of Orlando. However, things can turn on a dime in the world of sports. I made a HUGE play on the Lakers in Game 2 and they responded with an 111-88 win. LBJ had a modest line of 10-6-7 but A.D. had 31 & 11 plus the Lakers shot 47.8% as a team. Nurkic contributed just 9 & 8, while Lillard and McCollum combined for only 31 points and shot 2 of 12 on threes. The big story entering Game 3 was Lillard's health, as he had dislocated the index finger on his left hand in the third quarter. Lillard had 34 points in Game 3, while McCollum added 28 but Nurkic was again a non-factor (10 & 7). Meanwhile, LBJ bounced back with a line of 38-12-8 and A.D. wasn't far behind (29-11-8). Overall, LA shot 50.0% as a team in the 116-108 win. So here we are in Game 4, where the Blazers can square it at two-all, or LA can open up a commanding 3-1 lead. I'm not sure that Portland can even the series but taking the points looks very 'juicy.' Lillard can still "make the plays" with his injured left hand but the Blazers will NEED Nurkic to play MUCH better plus the bench CAN'T contribute just EIGHT points again, like it did in Game 3. When LBJ and A.D. play like they did in Game 3, the Lakers "two-man" team looks good enough to win a championship but I still see the Lakers as having way too many 'holes.' After all, even with 'monster' games from their two superstars AND a 28-18 edge in made FTs, the Lakers only won Game 3 by EIGHT points. I expect this contest to come "right down to the wire," taking more than a 'TD' seems HUGE! Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-20 | Reds -135 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Cin Reds at 8:10 ET. The Brewers, Cards and Cubs are typically "the usual suspects" in the NL Central but more than a few were touting the Reds as a 'sexy' pick in that division in the shortened 2020 MLB season. The Cubs have been atop the division since Opening Day and at 17-10, are three games up on the 9-8 Cards, who have missed so many games due to a COVID-19 outbreak. The Brewers are 11-15, as are the Reds, Both sit 5 1/2 games back of Chicago, as the division rivals open a four-game series at Miller Park on Monday night. Cincinnati has gone 2-4 to start a 10-game road stretch, while Milwaukee returns home trying to halt a season-high FOUR-game losing streak Taking the mound for the Reds will be Trevor Bauer (3-0, 0.68 ERA), while the Brewers counter with Brett Anderson (1-2, 3.71 ERA). Let me cut right to the chase! Anderson's in his 12th season and sports a 60-63 record with a 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .274 BAA. Can you say journeyman? He pitched rather poorly in his first three starts of 2020 (team was 0-3 and he posted a 4.91 ERA) but he's off his first win of the season last Wednesday, allowing just one run over six innings of a 9-3 win at Minnesota. Turning to Bauer, he had a decent run with Cleveland from 2016-18, going 41-23 with a 3.57 ERA but his 'bark' has always been bigger than his 'bite!' He was traded from Cleveland to Cincy last season and in 10 starts went 2-5 with a 6.39 ERA (Reds were 3-7). That said, Bauer's big mouth was at it again, as he talked about how eager he was to begin the 2020 season for the Cincinnati Reds. Well, so far, he's backed up his words. He leads all of MLB in ERA (0.68), owns an 0.57 WHIP (41-7 KW ratio) and has held opponents to an .093 BA. I'm "all over" Bauer here up against Anderson! Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-20 | A's v. Rangers +130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 130 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog at 8:05 ET. The Oakland Athletics just completed a brief five-game homestand 4-1 and now sit 20-9 overall, giving them the AL's best record (A's have won 10 of their last 11 at home). However, the A's take to the road on Monday to begin a 10-game road swing, starting with four games at Globe Life Field in Arlington against the Rangers. As for the Rangers, they return home after a disastrous five-game road losing trip to San Diego and Seattle, extending what is now a season-worst EIGHT-game losing slide. Texas sits 10-17 and already find themselves NINE games back of the first-place A's in the AL West. Then again, considering Texas finished 29 games behind the division-winning Astros in 2019 (as well as 19 games behind second-place Oakland), it wasn't as if the Rangers were expecting to be playing postseason baseball this October. The ONLY thing favoring the Rangers in this contest is the pitching matchup, as Oakland's Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 3.67 ERA) squares off against Lance Lynn (3-0, 1.37 ERA) of Texas. Luzardo made six relief appearances for Oakland last season and in 12 innings posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. He's made four starts for the A's in 2020 and the A's have won all four. he's had just one poor start, allowing six ERs in just 3.1 innings at San Francisco on Aug but Oakland won that game 8-7 (10 innings), In his other three starts, he's allowed just two ERs over 17 innings (1.06 ERA). Luzardo's been pretty good but he's only pitched 39 innings in his career. In stark contrast, Lance Lynn is in his 9th season, logging almost 1400 innings over 253 appearances (229 starts) with a 101-68 record (3.52 ERA). Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. He's only allowed six ERs in his six starts with an 0.81 WHIP and .146 BAA against to go along with that 1.37 ERA. Note that in his career, opponents have batted ,243 against Lynn, so he's nearly 100 points below that here in 2020! OK, it's still Oakland (an excellent team) vs Texas (a poor one0 but in three home starts, the rangers are 23-0 with Lynn owning a .106 ERA and .123 BAA. That may sound familiar? He went 10-1 at home for the Rangers in 2019. I'm backing Lyn n and 'taking the price,' as I expect Texas to snap that EIGHT-game losing streak tonight. You with me? Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-20 | Twins -103 v. Indians | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the 101-61 Twins. Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019, finishing 101-61. It was the franchise's first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The Twins opened 10-2 in 2020 (including taking three of four in Minnesota vs the Indians) but were a more modest 13-8 by Aug 15. However, the Twins have won SIX of eight as they head to Cleveland for this three-game series with the Indians. Cleveland was just 10-9 through Aug 12 but will take a 17-11 record into this series, just 1 1/2 games back of first-place Minnesota. The Twins and Indians have had two of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball so far during this abbreviated season. The Indians entered Sunday second in MLB with a team ERA of 2.73, while Minnesota was fourth with a 3.46 team ERA. Taking the mound tonight will be Minnesota's Kenta Maeda (3-0, 2.27 ERA), while Cleveland will counter with Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.91 ERA). Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gives Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. Maeda made his main mark with the Dodgers in the bullpen in the playoffs. Only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. He's been proving his point in five starts this season, going 3-0 (team is 4-1, with that lone loss coming when Maeda left with a 5-3 lead but the bullpen coughed up three runs in the 8th and 9th). Maeda takes the mound with not only a 2.27 ERA but an 0.63 WHIP (33-6 KW ratio) and a .128 BAA. Civale made 10 starts for Cleveland in 2019, going 3-4 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .216 BAA (Indians were just 5-5 in his starts). His numbers are strong again this season, with a 2.91 ERA, an 0.97 WHIP and a .236 BAA. However, I'm not sure he's up to matching the red-hot Maeda, plus the Indians are a modest 7-6 at Progressive field so far this season. I'll 'ride' Maeda again in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-20 | Pacers +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 6:30 ET. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout on Aug 10 in Orlando but the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 on Aug 15. That broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. However, all games are being played in Orlando, there IS no home court edge to go along with that No. 4 seed. The Heat controlled most of the play in each of the first two games of this series, winning 113-101 and 109-100. Miami then did so again in Saturday's 124-115 Game 3 on Saturday, a contest that was heavily impacted by free-throw shooting. The Heat went to the line 52 times and made 43, whereas the Pacers attempted just 28 foul shots and made 21. Miami has successfully held T.J. Warren to 19.7 PPG, after he averaged 31.0 PPG in the eight games prior to the start of the playoffs. The Pacers remain without their best player, Sabonis (out for the year), who averaged 18.5-12.4-5.0 before getting hurt. However, Malcom Brogdon has shined, averaging a team-best 24.3 PPG in the series, while also leads all clubs in assists with 33 through three games. Oladipo has also looked "more like himself" the last two games, scoring 22 and 20 points, respectively. Miami's basically gone to a seven-man rotation and the Heat have ridden balanced scoring to take a 3-0 lead. FIVE players are all averaging 15-plus points. The group includes starters Butler (24.3-6.0-4.7), Dragic (22.7-5.7 APG), Adebayo (15.3-8.7-5.0) and Duncan Robinson (15.0), plus Kentucky rookie Herro (16.7), who comes off the bench. NO way the Pacers come back to win this series but four-game sweeps are rare when featuring comparable opponents. The third-seeded Celtics completed a sweep over the sixth-seeded 76ers on Sunday but failed to cover. This is a 4 vs 5 matchup (remember, Indiana is the 4-seed) and I see the Pacers bringing their "A-game" to this win or go home contest. Upset alert? I wouldn't call an Indiana win here an upset. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Den Nuggets at 9:00 ET. Utah missed a great opportunity to 'steal' Game 1 against the Nuggets (lost in OT), when even Donovan Mitchell's 57 points weren't enough. However, everything has clicked for the Utah Jazz on offense and defense these last two games. The Jazz have overwhelmed the Nuggets on both ends of the court in back-to-back games, averaging 18 made three-pointers per game, while shooting 45 percent or better from behind the arc in both Game 2 and Game 3 wins. The Nuggets are a mess on defense (have allowed 124.3 PPG in the series) plus have struggled to find a consistent rhythm on offense the last two contests. After scoring 135 points in Game 1's OT victory, Denver has been held to 96.0 PPG in the two losses (Nuggets averaged 111.3 PPG during the regular season). Denver continues to miss two starters, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-3.7) and SG Harris (10.4), who happens to be the team's best perimeter defender. Are those losses too much to overcome? I am NOT ready to concede that. Jokic was his usual self in the first two games (28.5-10.4-4.5) but he had just 15 points in Game 3. Jokic had a breakout postseason last year and I expect a HUGE game from him here. PG Murray and the ever-improving Michael Porter Jr. should also be MUCH better in Game 4. Mitchell had those 57 points in the Game 1 loss but in Utah's two wins, scored 30 and 20 points. Center Rudy Gobert (20.0 & 9.3) has at least played Jokic to a draw so far and PG Mike Conley had a HUGE game on Friday. Conley led Utah with 27 points in its Game 3 romp (returned from a two-game absence), shooting a career-best 7-of-8 from three-point range. However, Conley has been erratic all season, shooting only 40.9% during the regular season, including 37.5% on threes. It's my bet that Utah will NOT replicate its performance from the last two games, when the team shot 51,7% (20-of-44 on threes) and 51.2% (18-of-37 on threes), respectively. Denver gained valuable playoff experience by playing in two, seven-game series in the 2019 postseason (beat the Spurs / lost to the Blazers) and I expect them to lean on that here. Expect Jokic and Murray to be "at their best" as the Nuggets tie this series at two-all. Take ANY points available. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Angels v. A's -124 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET. The Oak A's opened the 2020 season by hosting AL West rival, the LA Angels. The A's won three of the four games but then lost THREE in a row. However, the A's quickly turned things around and had gone 15-4 since ending that three-game slide. The A's were 18-8 on the season when they welcomed the Angels to Oracle Park for a three-game series on Friday night. The Angels have taken quite a different path than A's in the 2020 season. The Angels entered this weekend series having lost SEVEN of their last eight and a "check in the mirror" revealed their record to be the exact inverse of the A's, at 8-18. Oakland won 5-3 on Friday but the Angels earned a 4-3 victory at Oakland on Saturday, snapping their four-game losing streak plus ending Oakland's nine-game home winning streak (more in a bit). The teams get set to play the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday and the A's are 19-9, while the Angels again check in with the EXACT inverse record at 9-19. The Angels will send right-hander Dylan Bundy (3-2, 2.48 ERA) to the mound, while the A's will counter with right-hander Frankie Montas (2-2, 4.74 ERA). I'm not sure what to make of Bundy, who's looked decent in 2020. However, I well-remember the pitcher who has gone 8-16 with a 5.45 ERA and 7-17 with 4.79 ERA in 2018 and 2019, respectively (pitching for the Orioles). The Dodgers traded Montas to the Oakland Athletics prior to the 2016 season but he did not get a call to the majors in 2016. He then appeared in 23 games for the A's in 2017 (all in relief). Montas reverted to being a starter, beginning the season at the AAA level. He appeared in 13 games (11 starts) with the A's during the season, compiling a 5–4 record with a 3.88 ERA. However, he after started the 2019 season 9–2 with a 2.70 ERA in 15 games (all starts), before being suspended 80 games without pay for testing positive for a banned substance. Montas opened the current season 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA but after dealing with some back tightness, returned to the rotation to make his first start in nine days back on Aug 18. It's fair to say he showed a little 'rust,' allowing nine ERs on six hits (two HRs) in just 1.2 innings of a 10-1 loss. However, reports are that Montas is just fine. I noted above that the A's had their nine-game home winning streak snapped on Saturday but that still give s them a 12-4 home mark in 2020. No surprise there, after going 52-29 and 50-31 the previous two seasons at home. As for the Angels, they are 4-10 (.286) away from Anaheim, on pace to do even worse than last year's 34-47 (.419) road mark. A's get back to winning at home, taking this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Astros -110 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Hou Astros at 4:10 ET. The Houston Astros came to San Diego's Petco Park on an EIGHT-game winning streak but the Padres welcomed Houston to town having followed a five-game slide with a four-game winning streak of their own. Something had to give and entering Sunday, it's the Astros who have 'broken.' The Padres ended Houston's eight-game winning streak Friday night with a 4-3 win and then clobbered the Astros 13-2 Saturday night, homering SIX times (note: Padres have become the only team in history with five grand slams in a six-game span!). The Padres go for the three-game sweep and a 7th straight win in Sunday's finale, while the Astros look to regroup off last night's shellacking. Zach Greinke is 1-0 this season after FIVE starts. He deserves much better, as he has a 1.84 ERA, an 0.89 WHIP and a .208 BAA. He has allowed only six runs on 22 hits over 29.1 innings with a KW ratio of 25-4. How is it that Houston is just 2-3 in his starts? The Padres counter with the 21-year-old Adrian Morejon, who will be making just his second start this season. He made his first appearance of 2020 this past Tuesday in Texas, throwing three scoreless innings. The Padres will likely use at least three relievers Sunday because Morejon is not stretched out. Yes, the Padres are POUNDING' the ball but Greinke surely won't back down. He owns a 13-3 career record against the Padres with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP (161-32 KW ratio) in 25 starts (teams are 18-7). The Padres have a career .202 batting average with a .244 on-base percentage and a .319 slugging percentage in those Greinke starts. He's been even tougher against the Padres at Petco Park, where he owns a 2.24 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and a .198 opponents batting average in 15 starts. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 213 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Bos/Phi Over at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) in Game 4 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Philly was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn't been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above. Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floor in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds. Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win but I don't see them going down without a fight in this one. For that to happen, the 76ers will HAVE to score more than the pathetic 98/7 PPG they've averaged through the first three games of the series. That's NOT a stretch, as Philly averaged 110.7 PPG during the regular season. In this "win-or-go-home" game, expect Philly to at least reach that season average which means, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers +8 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (Atlantic) is on the Phi 76ers at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) Game 4 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. he Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Phily was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn';t been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above..Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floo in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds.Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win the series but I will NOT count them out of salvaging a pride-saving win in Game 4. I want ALL those points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-20 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Goin' Over Total is on Tex/Sea Over at 9:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners beat the Texas Rangers 7-4 last night and the two AL West also-rans meet again tonight in the middle contest of a three-game series. Texas sits 10-15 (eight games back of the A's in the AL West), while Seattle's win gets them to 9-19, 10 1/2 games back of the A's but a half-game better than the last-place Angels. Neither team has much of an offense but BOTH pitching staffs have struggled in 2020. The Rangers are allowing 5.32 RPG (team ERA of 5.02) and the Mariners are allowing 5.71 RPG (5.61 team ERA). Getting right to tonight's pitching matchup, it's Jordan Lyles (1-2, 7.52) for Texas and Justus Sheffield (1-2, 4.12 ERA) for Seattle. Lyles has pitched for SIX teams since beginning his career in 2011. He was just 5-7 with a 5.36 ERA for Pittsburgh in 2019, when he was traded to Milwaukee. Why would the Brewers want him? After all, at the time of the trade, his career record was 36-59 (5.29 ERA). However, Lyles was brilliant down the stretch for the Brewers, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 starts (Milwaukee was 10-1). In the 'world' of baseball these days, he used the brief stretch to get a two-year, $16 million deal with the Rangers. Should we really be surprised that he's got a 7.52 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five appearances (four starts) for Texas, so far? As for Sheffield, he's "on a roll!" After going winless in his first NINE major-league starts, he finally got untracked with a victory against Colorado on Aug 9, pitching six scoreless innings without walking a batter and striking out seven. He followed that with a no-decision in Houston but allowed just two runs (one earned) on six hits in six innings, with one walk and four strikeouts. Move over Gerrit Cole! This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-20 | Phillies -114 v. Braves | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Phi Phillies at 7:10 ET. The Atlanta Braves have won the NL East in each of the last two seasons and despite some SIGNIFICANT injuries here in 2020, enter Saturday 15-11 and atop the division once again. We are approaching the halfway point of his shortened 60-game season and as Yogi once said, "it gets late early out there." The Phillies are 9-13 and while they are just four games back, they should heed Yogi's advice. Atlanta regulars Acuna, Albies and Markakis are all on IL, while key starters Soroka and Hamels are out for the season (so is "King Felix"). Atlanta used its best starter in Friday's 11-2 win, as Fried pitched five innings of one-run ball to move to 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA (0.97 WHIP and .188 BAA). However, the Braves will hand the ball to Robbie Erlin for tonight's game. Erlin's in his 7th season and has made a modest 110 appearances (just 39 starts) and will take a 13-20 career mark (4.60 ERA) into this contest. Erlin (0-0, 5.40 ERA) was released by the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates three weeks ago and selected off waivers by Atlanta on Aug 7. After one relief appearance, he started against Miami this past Sunday and threw four scoreless innings, striking out five and allowing only one hit in a 4-0 win. Anyone really expecting a similar outing? Philadelphia counters with Zach Wheeler, who is living up to the high expectations that came when he signed as a free agent in the offseason. He showed plenty of promise with the Mets these last few years and so far has opened 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA in four starts (Phils are 3-1). Wheeler defeated the Mets this past Sunday, his team for the previous seven seasons. He went seven innings, allowing two runs on six hits, one walk and four strikeouts in the win. He's pitched into at least the sixth inning in ALL four of his 2020 starts for the Phillies. Wheeler over Erlin sets up my Game of the Week play on the Phillies. Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the OKC Thunder at 6:00 ET. The OKC Thunder had to like their chances against the Houston Rockets heading into this first round series, as former Thunder star Russell Westbrook (27.2-7.9-7.0) was expected to be sidelined for the entire series with a quad injury. So far, NOT so good for OKC, as Houston has won handily in each of the first two games, 123-108 and 111-98. Naturally, Harden (29.0-8.0-6.0) has led the way but FIVE other Houston players have averaged double digits in the first two contests. The most surprising of those five is 12-year vet Jeff Green, who the Rockets acquired in late February from Utah. Green's averaging 18.5 PPG and only Harden is averaging more rebounds than Green's 6.5 per. The Rockets have never been known for their defense but the Rockets have held the Thunder to 44.2 percent shooting by rotating with determination. Chris Paul NEEDS to step up for OKC. He just missed a triple-double in Game 1 (20-10-9) in Game 1 but he recorded an 'ugly' minus-36 rating in Thursday's defeat (14-6-2), the WORST of anyone on the court! What can the Thunder do to turn things around? How about utilize 6-11 center Steven Adams more. He's averaged 12.5 & 11.2 and his size leaves the small-ball Rockets with few options to stop him. The 6-10 Danilo Gallinari has led the way for OKC averaging 23.0 PPG and Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 20.0 & 5.0. It's great to have reserve guard Dennis Schroder back (he missed all of OKC's first eight games in Orlando), as while he's averaged just 9.5 PPG and 4.5 APG in this series, he averaged 18.9 & 4.0 in the regular season. Here's a couple of things to note about OKC. The Thunder were the NBA's best pointspread team during the regular season, going 44-28 (compared to Houston's 33-39 mark). What's more, the Thunder have some positive playoff history on their side in situations like this. OKC has won Game 3 in each of the FIVE previous instances in which it fell into an 0-2 series hole. Can you say SIX in a row? Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-20 | Pacers +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 3:30 ET. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout on Aug 10 in Orlando but the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 on Aug 15. That broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. However, with all games being played in Orlando, there IS no home court edge to go along with that No. 4 seed. The Heat have controlled the play in each of the first two games of this series, winning 113-101 and 109-100. The teams will trade benches and wear different colors for Game 3 but the Pacers will need more than that to get back in this series. The Heat have shut down T.J. Warren in the first two games, after he had averaged 31.0 points PPG on 57.8 percent shooting, including 52.4 percent with three-pointer, However, Warren's been held to 18.0 PPG (48.5 percent overall / 40.0 percent on threes), as Miami's gone up 2-0 in this series. It's not just Warren, as the Pacers have been held to just 100.5 PPG, the second-lowest total through two games of all 16 teams! Miami's gone with basically a seven-man rotation, led by the do-everything Butler (23.0-5.0-5.0) and veteran PG Dragic (22.0-4.5-5.5). SG Robinson (15.0), rookie guard Herro (15.0-4.0-3.5) and PF Adebayo (12.0-7.5-5.0) join Butler and Dragic in double digits (note: Herro is coming off the bench). The Pacers are without arguably their best player, Sabonis (out for the year), who had averaged 18.5-12.4-5.0. However, guards Brogdon (19.5 & 9.5 APG in the two games) and Oladipo (13.0 PPG but just 31.3% shooting) are MORE than capable. The 6-11 Myles Turner (13.0 & 8.5) has held his own up front, even without Sabonis. Here's the rub. Brogdon and Oladipo combined for 39 points in Game 2 (that's the good news) but shot a combined 9 of 29 from the floor (obviously, the bad news). Do I think Miami is the better team, yes! However, NOT by much and I'm taking the points with the team that's down 0-2. This series in NO way resembles the Toronto/Brooklyn mismatch or the Boston/Philly series, where the 76ers look as if they've "packed it in" for the season. No surprise at all to see Indiana win. Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-20 | Angels v. A's +104 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 104 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET. The Oak A's opened the 2020 season by hosting AL West rival, the LA Angels. The A's won three of the four games but then lost THREE in a row. However, the A's quickly turned things around and have gone 15-4 since ending that three-game slide. The A's are currently 18-8 and remain 2 1/2 games up on the Astros in the AL West, despite Houston's current eight-game winning streak. The Angels have taken quite a different path than A's in the 2020 season. The Angels lost for the SEVENTH time in their last eight games last night (10-5 in SF against the Giants) and can now look in the mirror and see that their record is the exact inverse of the A's, at 8-18. I noted in going against the Angels last night with the Giants, that the team's 8-17 record represented the worst 25-game start in Angels history, I believe it's safe to say that LA's 8-18 start represents the worst 26-game start in team history. Any reason for LA to start winning here? Andrew Heaney was initially scheduled to start Thursday's game for LA but he was pushed back until tonight. Heaney (1-1, 4.74 ERA) was the Angels starter on Opening Day but things have not gone well for him or the club in his starts. The Angels are 1-4 in Heaney's five starts. He pitched reasonably well in his first three outings (2.35 ERA) but he's allowed nine ERs on 13 hits over his last two starts over just 9.1 innings (8.68 ERA). Mike Fiers (2-1, 5.96) will start Friday for the A's, making his sixth start of the year. His numbers are off in 2020 (1.48 WHIP and .302 BAA to go along with his near-6.00 ERA), after he set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. However, the A's are 4-1 in his five, 2020 starts. Hard to say I'm surprised. Here's the rub. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 48 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 35-13 (.729) in those contests! Want more? The A's are 21-4 in Fiers 25 home starts at Oakland Coliseum, where the A's have gone 11-3 (.786) in 2020, after going 52-29 and 50-31 the previous two seasons. The Angels 'limp in' with a 3-9 road record this season and as mentioned above, with SEVEN losses in their last eight overall games. By the way, LA's pitchers are allowing 7.5 RPG during that eight-game span. Oakland is the pretty easy choice. Now let's win it! Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-20 | Clippers -4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. Luka Doncic scored 42 points while adding seven rebounds and nine assists in his first-ever playoff game this past Monday. However, it wasn't enough to keep the Mavs from losing 118-110 to the Clippers for the fourth straight time in the 2019-20 season. However, the Mavericks finally found success against the Clippers on Wednesday, despite Doncic being limited to 28 minutes due to foul trouble. That said, Doncic still managed 28-8-7. Fellow starters Porzingis (23 & 7) and Hardaway (17) both played well but the key was three Dallas players off the bench. Trey Burke (16), Seth Curry (15) and Boban Marjanovic (13) combined for 44 points on 19-of-28 shooting (68%). As for the Clippers, Kawhi scored 35 points and added 10 rebounds but fellow superstar Paul George had just 14 points on 4 of 17 shooting (2 of 10 on threes). LA was just horrific from beyond-the-arc, making just 10-34 (29.4%). Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said the following of the Mavericks performance in Game 2. "They had such a great rhythm against us. Every single guy on their team had confidence with the basketball. They were the more physical team. They played harder. They attacked us. We didn't respond well." Looking ahead to Game 3, Rivers expects his club to play tougher defense and move the ball better in Game 3. He was disappointed that his starting-five combined for seven assists on Wednesday. "That's not how we've played all year," Rivers said. "If we play like that, we can't win." OK, here's the rub. Why should we NOT expect this Kawhi and George led team to respond and bounce back. No way the Dallas trio of Burke, Curry and Marjanovic combine for 44 points again plus note that while Porzingis had 23 & 7 in Game 2, he's playing through right knee soreness. The Clippers are viewed by many as a possible NBA Finals participant (that group includes me) and I expect a championship-like performance from Kawhi and George. Lay the points as the Clippers win "with room to spare." Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-20 | White Sox v. Cubs +107 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 8:15 ET. My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 8:15 ET. It's a "Windy City Showdown" at Wrigley Field tonight, as the 15-11 White Sox take on the 18-8 Cubs in the first of three games. The White Sox were just 10-11 through Aug 15 but enter this contest on a FIVE-game winning streak, outscoring their 'victims' 38-11. SS Tim Anderson is batting .476 (10-for-21) with four HRs and seven RBI during the White Sox's five-game winning streak and in his nine games since returning from the injured list (right groin strain), the defending AL batting champ (.357) is hitting .417 (15-for-36). The Cubs jumped out to a 13-3 start but enter this contest just 5-5 over their last 10 games. The Cubbies did well to survive playing FIVE games in three days vs the cards (mon-Wed), winning THREE times. The Cubs had a much-needed day off yesterday, which should help a 'stretched-too-thin' pitching staff. Taking the mound tonight on the North Side will be two lefties, Dallas Keuchel (3-2, 3.07 ERA) and Jon Lester ((2-0, 2.74 ERA). Keuchel won the Cy Young award in the AL during the 2015 season (20-8, 2.48 ERA) but over the next three seasons was a modest 35-28 (3.99 ERA) for an outstanding Houston team. He was a free agent in 2019 but couldn't find a taker until Atlanta signed him on June 7, 2019 him to a one year $13 million deal. Was he worth it? You make the call! He went 8-8 with a 3,75 ERA in 19 regular season starts (team was 10-9). Atlanta then lost BOTH of his postseason starts. Meanwhile, the 36-year-old Lester has bounced back from a difficult 2019 season in which he posted a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts (it marked his highest since 2012). Lester is in the final season of a six-year, $155 million deal signed with Chicago prior to the 2015 campaign. He got off to a strong start in 2020 (his "contract year"), having not allowed more than one run in any of his first three starts against the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians. In the process, he posted a 1.06 ERA, an 0.65 WHIP and .117 BAA. However, that all changed last Sunday, when he allowed five ERs on nine hits over six innings of a 6-5 loss at home to the Brewers. I'm not backing off Lester after ONE bad outing and will note that he's 11-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 19 career starts against the White Sox, with his teams going 13-6 (Lester beat the White Sox in both of his starts against them in 2019, producing a 3.00 ERA). Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-20 | Stars v. Flames +116 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cal Flames at 10:30 ET. The Calgary Flames were the West's top team last year, finishing with 107 points. They met the eighth-seeded Avalanche in the first round and after winning Game 1 (4-0), lost FOUR straight. The Flames have been nowhere near as good this season, going 36-34-7 (79 points) before the shutdown. Calgary won its qualifying series 3-1 over Winnipeg, advancing to play the Dallas Stars in the first round (Stars were 37-32-8, 82 points before the shutdown). Calgary took two of the first three games in this best-of-seven series but then... The Flames were seconds away from taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series in Game 4, before surrendering a late, game-tying goal (Stars scored at 19:48 of the third period) and then falling in overtime. The Stars then edged the Flames 2-1 in Game 5 and now Calgary needs to win Game 6, or its season is over. Dallas head coach Rick Bowness is well aware of his team's challenge. "The toughest game to win is that knockout win, that fourth win," he said after Game 5. "That's the best game they've played against us this series, so give them credit. We're going to see that kind of game for 60 minutes on Thursday." The Stars' No. 1 goalie (Ben Bishop) remains out and Anton Khudobon (3-3, 2.41 GAA & .917 in six games of the restart) will again be in net. However, I'm backing the Flames behind Cam Talbot (2.19 GAA & .934 SP during the restart) in this "win or go home" game. See you in Game 7. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-20 | Angels v. Giants -113 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET. The Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants conclude their four-game, home-and-home series tonight at Oracle Park. The Angels won 7-6 to open the series on a walk-off HR in the 9th on Monday in Anaheim but the Giants rebounded with an 8-2 Tuesday and then won 7-2 last night at home. Both teams find themselves in postseason jeopardy, as the Angels are 8-17 (nine games back in the AL West) and the 10-16 Giants are eight games back in the NL West. LA's 8-17 record represents the worst 25-game start in Angels history, one made more critical by the fact that 2020 features a 60-game season. Andrew Heaney was initially scheduled to start Thursday's game for LA but he's been pushed back until Friday. Jose Suarez will get the nod instead, making his first appearance of the 2020 season. Kevin Gausman (0-1, 4.21 ERA) will start for the Giants and he's looking for his first victory this year. This is clearly NOT a marquee pitching matchup! Suarez was 2-6 with a 7.11 ERA in 19 games (15 starts) as a rookie for the Angels in 2019 last season. He also had an 'ugly' 1.64 WHIP and .304 BAA to along with his 7.00-plus ERA. Gausman is in his eighth big league season and the Giants are his FOURTH team (career record of 47-64, with a 4.30 ERA). He's made five appearances so far in 2020, including four starts (Giants are 0-4). Gausman is not the typical pitcher I back with a 10* play but he's got a solid 1.17 and an excellent KW ratio (34-5). Meanwhile, a look back at Suarez's 2019 season reveals that the Angels were 1-11 in his final 12 appearances of the season (nine starts / three relief appearances). Let me add that the LONE win came in a relief appearance by Suarez, as the Angels lost all NINE of his starts in that closing stretch. Gausman's no Gerrit Cole but he'll do in this instance! One last reminder, LA's 8-17 record represents the worst 25-game start in Angels history! Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* 1st Round Game of the Year (West Conf) is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard, who has averaged in the 10 games the Blazers have played in Orlando. He had 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, leading a balanced attack that saw McCollum scoring 21 points while center Jusuf Nurkic (17.9 & 11.8 in Orlando) added 16 & 15. Nurkic's backup, Hassan Whiteside, chipped in 7 & 8, with his plus/minus of plus-13 ranking 2nd to only Lillard's plus-19 for the game. Defensively, Portland held the Lakers to 35.1 percent shooting from the floor, including and 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!). A.D. had 28 & 11 and LBJ added his 24th career playoff triple-double (23-17-16) but LA's dynamic duo combined to shoot 1 of 10 on threes. LA's starters shot a combined 3 of 23 on threes. Kuzma, LA's only other consistent scorer during the regular season, added 14. LA's center combo of McGee and Howard (10 points / 13 rebounds) was outplayed by Nuric alone, not even adding in Whiteside's contributions. The Lakers' time in the NBA bubble has been nowhere near as intense as the Blazers'. The Lakers clinched the West's No. 1 seed back on Aug 3 and since that time, the Lakers are just 1-4 (0-5 ATS) and needed a Kyle Kuzma shot at the buzzer to capture their lone win. Portland was a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers and after Game 1, the Blazers have LA's full attention. Portland has won SEVEN of its last eight games but during the Blazers' stay in Orlando, they never had to face the same team twice, much less face the same team in consecutive games. That changes here in Game 2. "It's one game," Lakers head coach Frank Vogel said. "I was pleased with our competitive spirit. We didn't make shots. ... I think we can shoot the ball better than we saw tonight." The Lakers CAN'T shoot any worse than in Game 1, right? I've never been completely 'sold' on this LA team but I'm "all over" them here in this bounce-back situation. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-20 | Astros v. Rockies -122 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET. The Houston Astros opened the current season by taking THREE of four from Seattle (no big deal in that) but then went on to lose NINE of their next 13 games. A 7-6 loss in 10 innings against the Giants on Aug 11 left them just 7-10. All of sudden, what's going on with the Astros, became a familiar refrain. Houston has answered that refrain by winning SEVEN in a row and now sits 14-10, 2 1/2 games back of the 17-8 A's in the AL West. While a strong year was expected in 2020 for Houston, the same couldn't be said of Colorado. The Rockies went 71-91 in 2019 (leaving them 35 games back of the LA Dodgers) but Colorado was an early season surprise, opening 11-3. However, the Rockies will take the field today having lost EIGHT of 10s, including the first three of this four-game, home and home series with the Astros. The Rockies lost both Monday and Tuesday in Houston by scores of 2-1 but returned to Coors Field last night, only to lose 13-6. Thursday's starting pitchers will be Houston rookie Cristian Javier (2-1, 2.91 ERA) going up against Colorado ace, German Marquez (2-3, 2.25 ERA). Javier is facing the Rockies for the first time but has looked very good, so far. He's made five appearances (four starts) in 2020, posting an 0.83 WHIP (21-7 KW ratio) and .153 BAA. Marquez was Colorado's Opening Day starter and he has pitched like an ace but he doesn't have the record of one. He has yet to allow more than two ERs in an outing, while posting a 1.09 WHIP (30-8 KW ratio) to go along with his 2.25 ERA. The Rockies have hit a rough patch (see above) but in the seven games before Wednesday, Rockies starters had allowed just 15 ERs and only once allowed more than three in an outing, before Ryan Castellani gave up five runs in 5.2 innings last night. Javier has pitched well but he visits Coors Field for the first time and I expect the Colorado bats to 'wake up.' Also, I'm counting on Marquez to continue his solid pitching in 2020. The Rockies are the play. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-20 | Canucks +126 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Tie-Breaker is on the Van Canucks at 10:30 ET. The Vancouver Canucks and St. Louis Blues play Game 5 on Wednesday night in Edmonton. The Canucks won the first two games of the series 5-2 and 4-3 (OT), then the Blues won the next two, 3-2 (OT) and 3-1 to even it up. The Blues' wins came on back-to-back nights (Sun & Mon) and featured St Louis head coach Craig Berube starting backup goaltender Jake Allen in both games. 2019 postseason hero Jordan Binnington had gone 0-4 in this postseason with a 4.27 GAA & a .862 SP but Allen has stopped 61 of 64 shots (.953 SP) in the Blues' two wins. Could there be ANY reason for Berube to turn back to Binnington? I have to assume it will be Allen in net, again. Speaking of goaltenders, Vancouver's Jacob Markstrom has been steady, going 5-3 with a 2.42 GAA and a .927 SP. Vancouver winger J.T. Miller said after Monday night's game, "We played a hard back-to-back against the Stanley Cup champs. It's a best-of-seven series for a reason, and we knew it was a tall task. We were one shot away from going up 3-0 (Sunday) and tonight it was 1-1 five-on-five. It's not like we're getting our butts whipped up and down the rink.' I had a HUGE play on StL in Game 3 on Sunday, as the defending champs had their backs to a wall. It's a little different here and after an "off day," I expect the Canucks to bounce back. Center Bo Horvat has been shut out in the past two games after scoring four goals in Games 1 and 2, so look for him to make an impact in this one. Also, defenseman Quinn Hughes has been an excellent contributor so far, but had his six-game point streak (one goal, eight assists) stopped Monday. I'm "all over" the underdog Canucks here, as they go up 3-2 and place the Blues' backs up against the wall again in Game 6. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-20 | Angels v. Giants +125 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 125 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SFG at 9:45 ET. The Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants will continue their home-and-home series, heading north to the Bay Area for two games (Wednesday & Thursday), after splitting two games (Monday and Tuesday) in Anaheim. The Angels won 7-6 to open the series on a walk-off HR in the 9th, while the Giants rebounded with an 8-2 win last night. Both teams find themselves in postseason jeopardy, as the Angels are 8-16 (eight games back in the AL West) and the 9-16 Giants (nine games back in the NL West. Taking the mound for the Angels will be Patrick Sandoval (0-2, 3.94 ERA), while the Giants counter with Johnny Cueto (1-0, 4.62 ERA). Sandoval is not only looking for his first win in 2020, he's looking for his first-ever major league win. The left-hander has made 12 starts (and one relief appearance) going back to last season and sports a record of 0-6 with a 4.72 ERA (Angels are 4-8 in his 12 starts). Cueto comes in off two 'interesting' starts. He carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning against the Dodgers on Aug 8 but it was broken up when Kike Hernandez led off the inning with a triple to left that Hunter Pence lost track of in the Dodger Stadium twilight (Giants would hold on to win, 5-4). He then went seven strong innings against the A's on Aug 14 (two ERs allowed), leaving with a 6-2 lead. However, the A's scored FIVE in the top of the 9th to send the game into extra innings, where Oakland won 8-7 (10 innings). Isn't Cueto due for some "good luck?" I'll note that he's 2-0 with an 0.86 ERA in three starts in his career vs Oakland. I already mentioned that Sandoval's yet to earn a win in his first 12 major leagues starts while that steak will surely end some time, why would it end here? It already ranks as the longest stretch without a victory for a starting pitcher to begin a career in Angels history. Don't expect things to change here in start No. 13, as the Angels are 3-7 on the road to open the current season. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 6:30 ET. The third-seeded Celtics prevailed 109-101 in the series opener against the sixth-seeded 76ers, led by Jayson Tatum (32 & 13) and Jaylen Brown (29). However, it was no 'walk in the park.' In fact, it was much to the contrary. Philly's Joel Embiid made a 22-footer on the first possession of the fourth quarter, as the 76ers took an 81-75 lead. However, Embiid (26 & 16) did not make a field goal over the final 11:36 of the contest, as Boston outscored Philadelphia 34-20 the rest of the way. The Celtics rotated fresh bodies on Embiid and will attempt to employ the same strategy here in Game 2. However, some bad news came Boston's way out of Game 1. Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1 during the regular season) suffered a Grade III right-ankle sprain in the fourth quarter and is out for the rest of the series and could miss the next round as well if the Celtics get that far. Marcus Smart (12.9-3.8-4.9 in the red season will likely replace him in the starting lineup but that further weakens the Boston bench. Smart scored just two points (0-5 FGs) off the bench in Game 1 and while Stevens used SIX bench players during the game, the group totaled a meager EIGHT points. In contrast, Philly's Alec Burks had 18 points off the bench, all by himself. Horford and Harris combined for 15 rebounds and 14 assists in Game 1 but shot a combined 9 of 22 from the floor (including 0-4 on threes), scoring a total of 21 points. That duo will HAVE to contribute more points but overall. The 76ers enjoyed a 50-43 advantage on the boards but the "deciding factor" in Game 1 was the fact the Celtics committed just SEVEN turnovers, compared to the 76ers' 18. Another nail-biter is expected and I'm taking the points. A Philly win would NOT be a surprise. Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Lakers enter their first round series with the Blazers as the top seed in the Western Conference but I'm sure most have heard "the chatter." The eighth-seeded Blazers, one of the hottest teams in the bubble and led by Damain Lillard (the bubble's most outstanding player), are a dangerous squad and a tough matchup for LA. The Lakers pretty much had the No. 1 seed locked up when they arrived in Orlando and the Lakers played like a team with nothing to prove. LA went 3-5 SU and a money-burning 1-7 ATS in their eight games! In contrast, the Blazers had work to do when they arrived in Orlando, needing to catch Memphis for the No. 8 seed, or stay within four games of the eight-seed, which would force a play-in. Portland went 6-2 and was able to earn the No. 8 seed, when Memphis went 2-6. That forced a play-in situation in which the Blazers and Grizzlies met last Saturday. A Portland win would give them the final playoff spot, while a Memphis win would force a winner-take-all game on Sunday. Lllard continued his outstanding play last Saturday, scoring 31 points and adding 10 assists, as the Blazers made a Sunday game moot, with a 126-122 win. Lillard had averaged 51.3 points in his three previous games before Saturday, including a career-high tying 61 points in a win over the Dallas Mavericks on Aug 11. Backcourt partner McCollum, who has clearly been affected by a nondisplaced fracture in his back. added 29 points. Center Nurkic had missed all games in the regular season but the COVID-19 stoppage of play allowed him to return in Orlando. He averaged 17.6-1.3-4.0 as Portland went 6-2 plus added 22 points and 21 rebounds in Saturday's seed-clinching game with Memphis. The Lakers are led by the dynamic duo of A.D. (26.1 & 9.3) and LBJ (25.3-7.8-10.2) but BOTH played erratically in LA's 3-5 effort. LA's only other double-digit scorer this season has been reserve forward Kyle Kuzma (12.8 & 4.9) but Dion Waiters, who was signed prior to the bubble, has averaged 11.9 PPG in 23.5 MPG here in Orlando. The Lakers have started McGee (6.6 & 5.7) with Howard (7.5 & 7.3) coming off the bench at the center position and the combo has been 'quietly' effective. I have my doubts about LA's ability to "win it all" but after basically 'sleep-walking' through the team's first eight games, I expect A.D. and especially LBJ, to "put Portland in its place" in Game 1 of this series. "Lay it!" Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-20 | Capitals +105 v. Islanders | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Was Capitals at 8:00 ET. The Washington Capitals were best-known for their postseason failures (collapses) but that all changed in 2018. The Caps lost the first two games of their first round playoff series against Columbus in April of 2018. but then won the next four games. From there, Washington went on to capture the franchise's first-ever Stanley Cup. However, in the 2019 postseason, Washington was back to its "old tricks." The Caps won their first two games at home against Carolina but would then lose FOUR of the last five, getting eliminated at home in Game 7 with a 4-3 double-OT loss. Here we are in the 2020 postseason and the Caps are again on the verge of yet another early playoff exit. The NY Islanders went 35-33-10 (80 points) in the COVID-19 shortened regular season, 10 points less than the Capitals (41-28-8, 90 points). The Islanders beat the Florida Panthers in four games in a qualifying-round series and are now up 3-0 against the Caps (6-1 in the East's Toronto hub). The Islanders took a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series Friday night when they scored THREE goals in a span of 3:58 in the second period before adding two goals late in the third in a 5-2 victory. They then won 2-1 on Sunday when Mathew Barzal beat Braden Holtby with a backhand 4:18 into OT. That puts the 2018 Stanley Cup champions on the brink of another early exit. Goaltender Holtby has NOT be the problem for Washington (2.64 GAA / .907 SP), rather it's been a non-existent offense. Washington's scored just FIVE goals in this series and netted just FIVE goals in their round round play (1-2). Ovechkin tied Pastrnak with a league-best 48 goals in the regular season but in six games in Toronto, he scored just two goals (both in Friday's 5-2 loss). Oshie leads the team with a modest three goals but TWO came in Game 1 of this series (4-2 loss). Defensenan Carlson (team leading 75 during the regular season) missed the Caps' first three games but has yet to score a goal in this series (does have four assists). New York saw Varlamov play 45 games in the regular season, while Greiss made 31 starts. However, it's been "all Varlamov" here in Toronto and he's been brilliant (6-1, 1.71 GAA and .932 SP). The bottom line is, 188 of the 192 NHL teams to take a 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win those series. Washington has been outshot 75-53 in 5-on-5 play in the series plus the Islanders have dominated play in the third period (and OT) in all three games. New York has outscored Washington 6-0 after the second period and limited the Capitals to just six shots in the third period and overtime on Sunday. Sweep? "There's no tougher game than a game to clinch a series, and it's going to be no different in Game 4 here," said Islanders captain Anders Lee. "It's going to be a tough, tough game. We played a good one tonight, and we were able to come out on top, but we've still got a lot of work to do to make this thing right." Washington's Ovechkin added, It's a hard situation, but it's not over yet. For us right now, it's nothing to lose, right? So we just have to go out there and play. Don't think about the score in the series. We're going to take it game by game. We have experience. A (few) teams did it and we believe in ourselves." As the Monkees once sang, "I'm a Believer" in Washington for at least tonight! Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-20 | Nationals v. Braves -128 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -128 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET The Washington Nationals have hardly played like defending champions. Last night's 7-6 Monday loss in Atlanta to the Braves, typifies the team's season-to-date. Washington took a 6-3 lead into the bottom of the 9th at Atlanta in the opener of this three-game series last night but walked off a loser, when the Braves hit a pair of two-run HRs in the ninth to overcome that three-run deficit (Adam Duvall hit the first one and Dansby Swanson the a walk-off one. The loss drops the Nats to 8-12 (and into last-place), four games back of the 14-10 Braves (Atlanta has won back-to-back NL East titles). The Nats look to recover from last night's loss and will send Austin Voth (0-2, 3.21 ERA) to the mound in search of his first career win against the Braves (more later). Voth will be opposed by veteran Atlanta pitcher Josh Tomlin (0-1, 1.59 ERA), who will make his start of the 2020 season. Voth's made 16 career appearances (13 stars) and is just 3-4. However, he's pitched well, posting a 3.86 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a .224 BAA. Three of those starts have come in 2020 and while his ERA is 3.21, his WHIP 1.07 and his BAA .226, the Braves are 0-3. Tomlin spent most of his career as a starter with Cleveland (2010-17) but morphed into a swingman for Cleveland in 2018 and then had 50 relief appearances for Atlanta in 2019. Tomlin has been the Braves' most versatile and dependable reliever in his one-plus seasons with the Braves. He's been excellent in eight relief appearances in 2020, posting a 1.59 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and a .154 BAA and will make his first start since 2019 in this one. Tomlin's LONE start for Atlanta came back on Sep 25 of last year, when the Braves were setting up their rotation for the playoffs (he permitted one run in three innings as Atlanta won 10-2). Getting back to Voth, he has nothing to show for his four career appearances (including three starts) against the Braves. He has a 2.70 ERA, allowing only five runs in 16.2 career innings against Atlanta. In those three starts, he has a 2.87 ERA but is 0-2 and the Nats are 0-3. I just don't like much about Washington this season and "upon further review," I'm backing the veteran Tomlin. Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees +102 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is arguably MLB's most intense but that rivalry will be taking a 'hiatus' in the 2020 season. New York just completed a four-game sweep of Boston (Fri-Mon) and it was hardly noteworthy, as the Yankees moved to 16-6, while the Red Sox fell to 6-17, 10 1/2 games behind New York in the AL East (Yanks are 7-0 vs the Red Sox this season). The Yankees are currently on a SIX-game winning streak and will welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to the Bronx on Tuesday, for a three-game series. The Rays are 14-9 (2 1/2 games out of first-place) and took THREE of four from the Yankees at Tropicana Field from Aug 7-9) In fact, the Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games, a stretch that began with a 1-0 win over the Yankees in their first meeting (Aug 7). The bad news for New York (and I guess the good news for the Rays) is that the Yankees will be playing without three of their stars in this series. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and DJ LeMahieu are all on the injured list. Stanton injured his left hamstring running the bases in Tampa Bay back on Aug 8, the Yankees cited the artificial turf as a cause of Judge's right calf injury and LeMahieu is sidelined for at least two weeks after suffering a sprain in his left thumb Saturday. The first game of this series has a 'deja vu' look to it, as the pitching matchup is the same as in Game 1 of that series at Tropicana field from Auf 7-9. The Rays send lefty Blake Snell (1-0, 2.08 ERA) to the mound, while the Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 2.31 ERA). The Rays are 3-1 in Snell's first four starts but he pitched a total of just EIGHT in his first three outings (went just three innings in the Aug 7 game vs the Yankees). he pitched five scoreless innings last Wednesday, earning his first win of the season (TB beat Bos, 9-5). As for Tanaka, he's pitched a total of just 11.2 innings in his three starts, with the Yankees winning TWO of the three (he pitched five scoreless innings in that Aug 7 game opposite Snell). Snell is 3-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 17 career starts against the Yankees (Rays are 8-9) but while he's 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in six starts at home, he's 1-5 with a 5.82 ERA in 11 starts and at New York. Tanaka is 10-4 with a 3.07 ERA in 19 career starts against the Rays, with the Yankees going 13-6. What's more, the Yankees were 8-2 at home against the Rays last season and are 35-13 against the Rays at home in the past five seasons! So why is this game a pick'em? Good luck...Larry |
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08-17-20 | Tigers v. White Sox -135 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET. The Detroit Tigers were a MLB-worst 47-114 in 2019 but opened the current season 9-5. However, the winning wouldn't last. The Tigers lost the final two games of a three-game set at home vs the White Sox (Tuesday & Wednesday), then saw a make-up doubleheader on Thursday against the Cards postponed due to St Louis' ongoing COVID-19 issues. The Indians arrived in Detroit for a three-game series this past weekend and the Tigers lost all three. I guess we shouldn't be surprised, as the Indians have now won 20 in a row over the Tigers! The Tigers now begin a four-game series in Chicago against the White Sox, who are 11-11. Chicago opened 7-4 but has followed by going 4-7.Detroit left-hander Matthew Boyd (0-2, 10.24 ERA) gets the ball for the Tigers, while Chicago counters with left-hander Gio Gonzalez (0-1, 6.61 ERA). Boyd has not pitched more than five innings in any of his four starts in 2020 and is coming off a loss to the White Sox last Wednesday afternoon. Boyd allowed seven ERs on seven hits in just 4.2 innings of a 7-5 loss. It shouldn't have been a surprise, as he's 4-7 with a 5.08 ERA in 15 career starts against the White Sox (Tigers are 5-10). Gio Gonzalez is in his first season with Chicago and after four appearances (three starts), has a 2.08 WHIP and .351 BAA to go along with his plus-6.00 ERA. Gonzalez began his career with Oakland and put together two strong back-to-back seasons in 2010 (15-9, 3.23 ERA) and 2011 (16-12, 3.12 ERA). he was traded to Washington prior to the 2012 season and had a "Career year" in 2012, going 21-8,2.89 ERA. He remained a solid member of the Nats' rotation the next five years (2013-2017) but was traded to Milwaukee during the 2018 season. Injuries limited him to just 19 appearances (17 starts) for the Brewers in 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with the White Sox prior to the 2020 season. Gonzalez had his best outing in his last start, coming within one out of notching his first victory as a member of the White Sox on Tuesday against the Tigers. He held them to two ERs in 4.2 innings of an 8-4 Chicago win in Detroit. Gonzalez has a decent pedigree (something Boyd does not) plus the Chicago bullpen has been a big plus for the team. Jimmy Cordero has allowed one of 33 inherited runners to score (going back to the end of last season), while Matt Foster (10.2) and Ross Detwiler (11.1) extended their respective season-opening scoreless innings streaks on Sunday. Chicago wins this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Playoff Opener is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. The Celtics and 76ers 'tipped off' their respective seasons back on Oct 23, with the 76ers taking care of the Celtics 107-93. It was a nice confidence-builder for Philly, as the Celtics had gone 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their previous nine meetings with Philly. Now, almost NINE months later, the two longtime rivals open against each other in a #3 (Boston) vs #6 (Philadelphia) first round series from the Orlando 'bubble.' Al Horford joined Philly (from Boston) in the off season and the 76ers did win THREE of the four meetings with Boston this season, seemingly turning the tide. However, this series will take on a different complexion in the playoffs, as Philly's All-Star guard Ben Simmons (16.4-7.8-8.0) has been sidelined following knee surgery. Is the loss of Simmons that BIG of a deal? Not all think so. Here's what Boston head coach Brad Stevens noted. "In the games that Simmons hasn't played, they're the No. 1 offense in the league," said Stevens. "The spacing, the shooting around [Joel] Embiid posting, the ability to play big with both Embiid and Al (Horford). ... A bunch of shooters around them makes them very tough." The 76ers went 4-4 during the seeding portion of the NBA season restart, ending on a 2-3 stretch in the games without Simmons. Still, as Stevens alluded to, the team surpassed 100 points in each of those contests, with Horford slotting into the starting lineup in a bigger look. Embiid's a stud (23,0 & 11.6), Harris (19.6 & 6.9) is an excellent SF and Horford (11.9-6.8-4.0) has always been more valuable than his stats indicate. The Celtics have two young stars (superstars?) in Jayson Tatum (23.4 & 7.0) and Jaylen Brown (20.3 & 6.4). Both have had "career years" in the 2019-20 season, while the FA signing of PG Kemba Walker (20.4 & 4.8 APG) has been HUGE. No one in Boston misses Kyrie. Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1) is playing like he did three years ago and Marcus Smart (12,9-3.8-4.9) has become a team leader, as well as the team's best defender. Boston's center duo of Theis (9.2 & 6.6) and Kanter (8.1 & 7.4) don't get much respect, but they make up a solid combo. Don't include me as one who buys into the theory of Philly being better off with Simmons. As for Boston, the Celtics were pretty much 'locked into' the No. 3 seed when the restart began but played well in 'the bubble.' They lost their first game to the Bucks 1189-122 (note: game was tied with 1:30 left) but then went 5-1 over their next six, including FOUR straight, before resting their starters in a 96-90 loss to the Washington Wizards on Thursday. I'm laying the points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-16-20 | Blues -133 v. Canucks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the StL Blues at 10:30 ET. The St Louis Blues were the 'toast' of the NHL in 2019, winning the franchise's first-ever Stanley Cup. The emergence of Jordan Binnington led to an amazing in-season turnaround, as the rookie would go 24-5-1 (1.89 GAA & .927 SP) after taking over as the team's No. 1 goaltender. He then helped lead the Blues to the title by playing all 26 games, going 16-10, 2.46 GAA & .914 (note: he and the Blues would go 10-3 on the road!). St Louis had the West's best record (42-29-10, 94 points) when COVID-19 shut things down in mid-March but the Blues lost all three of their round robin games, then opened their first round series with the Canucks by losing 5-2 and 4-3 in OT. Vancouver was just 36-33-6 in the regular season (78 pints were 16 less than that of St Louis) but the Canucks have won FIVE straight games since losing Game 1 to the Minnesota Wild in the best-of-five qualifiers. Canucks center Bo Horvat has a league-high SIX goals in the postseason, including four goals in the first two games against St. Louis, including the game-winner Friday on a breakaway at 5:55 of overtime. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom has been in net for all six of Vancouver's games so far and has won FIVE straight after 3-0 in the Canucks first game. He owns a 2.31 GAA and .926 SP. Binnington has allowed nine goals on 47 shots in two games against Vancouver, including four on 25 shots in Game 2. He's 0-4 with a 4.27 goals-against average and .862 save percentage in the playoffs. Blues head coach Craig Berube was noncommittal when asked if he would start Jake Allen in net on Sunday night. Allen has played one game in the postseason, stopping 37 of 38 shots in a 2-1 shootout loss to Dallas. I'm not about to say I know who Berube will start but either way, this game belongs to the defending champs! Good luck...Larry |
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08-16-20 | Padres -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 4:10 ET. The San Diego Padres are coming off a 70-92 season in 2019 (36 games back of LA) but they are hoping that a shortened 60-game season (and an expanded playoff format) will allow them to break a drought of 13 consecutive non-playoff years, as well as NINE straight losing seasons. The Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 last season but that still left them 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as four games out of the NL's last wild card spot. Arizona does not expect to end LA's 'hold' on the NL West (Dodgers have won seven straight division titles) but with MLB expanding its postseason field from 10 to 16 teams, the D'backs entered the season feeling as if a playoff berth was MORE than realistic. These two NL West foes opened the current season with the Padres winning THREE of four at Petco Park and the schedule had the two teams back in San Diego for a three-game series this past weekend. The Padres won that series 2-1 but after opening a four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers with two wins at Dodger Stadium Monday and Tuesday, they were outscored a combined 17-2 on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the D'backs took two of three in Colorado (Mon-Wed), scoring 32 runs in the process. The Padres opened this series 11-9, 2 1/2 games better than the 8-11 D'backs but Arizona finally got a chance to play San Diego in its home park (Chase Field). The D'backs won 5-1 on Friday and then almost blew a 7-1 lead by allowing FIVE runs in the last two innings, before holding on for a 7-6 win. All of a sudden, the 10-11 D-backs can pass the 11-11 Padres with a win in the series finale on Sunday. Taking the mound for San Diego will be Garrett Richards (1-1, 3.74 ERA) and for Arizona, it will be Robbie Ray (1-2, 10.59 ERA). Richards spent eight years with the Angels, before signing a two-year deal with San Diego. However, Tommy John surgery caused him to miss almost ALL of 2019 (made just three September appearances). Here in 2020, he's had two good and two not-so-good starts. One of the good ones was his 2020 debut at home vs the D'backs, when he pitched five scoreless innings, allowing just one hit (no-decision). That should come as a surprise as he's 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks (team is a more modest 3-2). Ray came to Arizona back in 2015 but except for an excellent 2017 season (15-5, 2.89 ERA & 1.15 WHIP), he's been a mediocre pitcher (career record stands at 48-48 with a 4.25 ERA). Currently, Arizona would LOVE to see some mediocrity out of Ray, the left-hander is set to make his fifth start of the season, trying to turn his 2020 campaign around. he has battled control and location problems en route to 14 walks in 17 innings of work, posting a 10.59 ERA, 2.12 WHIP and a .310 BAA. His 5-6 (4.40 ERA) career record in 17 starts vs SD (team is 9-8), doesn't bode well, either. The Padres have lost four in a row (their longest losing streak of the season) but Ray is "just what the doctor ordered," while I expect Richards to give the Padres a strong outing. Good luck...Larry |
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08-16-20 | Brewers v. Cubs -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The Brewers grabbed the final NL wild card spot, besting the Mets by three games but then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to the Nationals. Joe Maddon, who guided the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series championship in 2016, decided to cut ties with the club and first-year manager David Ross took over for the Cubs. Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell is in his sixth season with the Brewers and saw his team edge the Cubs for the Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) plus won 89 games last year. These teams opened the current season at Wrigley, with the Cubs winning two of three. The teams are back at each other this weekend for a four-game series, again playing in Chicago. The Cubs entered the series 12-3 and won on Thursday to give them a MLB-best 13-3 record. Milwaukee fell to just 7-10 after Thursday's defeat but has rebounded to win back-to-back one-run contests (4-3 & 6-5 in 10 innings). As the two NL Central rivals complete their four-game set on Sunday, the Cubs are 13-5, 4 1/2 games up on the 9-10 Brewers (the Cards are 4-3 in the division, having lost 15 games due to COVID-19 issues). Sunday's starters will be Josh Lindblom (1-0, 5.68 ERA) for Milwaukee and Jon Lester (2-0, 1.06 ERA) for Chicago. Lindblom has quite a story. He was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2nd round of the 2008 MLB draft and made his major league debut in relief on June 1, 2011. He then spent time with Philly, Texas and Oakland through 2014, before playing in the KBO in 2015 and '16. He signed with Pittsburgh in 2017 but pitched just four games, before returning to the KBO. He went 15-4 (2.98 ERA) in 2018 and 20-3 (2.50 ERA) in 2019, winning the MVP. That was enough for him to sign a three-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. This marks his fourth start of the season for the Brewers but the numbers aren't pretty, as he owns a 5.68 ERA and 1.58 ERA. In contrast, the 36-year-old Lester has bounced back from a difficult 2019 season in which he posted a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts (it marked his highest since 2012). Lester is in the final season of a six-year, $155 million deal signed with Chicago prior to the 2015 campaign and he's off to a strong start in his "contract year." He has not allowed more than one run in any of his first three starts against the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians, posting an 0.65 WHIP and .117 BAA to go along with that 1.06 ERA. Lester is 5-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 career starts vs Milwaukee (teams are 6-5) and he's got 73 Ks in 69.2 innings. Current form says Lester over Lindblom and a look at history reveals that while Lindblom has made just 117 major league appearances (only NINE starts) with a 6-8 record (4.23 ERA), Lester made 414 starts with a 3.55 ERA and is closing in on 200 wins (192-108). Oh , by the way, he owns THREE World Series rings, 2007 & 2013 with the Red Sox and 2016 with the Cubs (note: he was the MVP of the NLCS in 2016). The Brewers will try for their first three-game winning streak of the season on Sunday but...Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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08-15-20 | Dodgers -150 v. Angels | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Dodgers at 9:40 ET. The LA Dodgers have captured SEVEN consecutive NL West titles, while averaging 95.9 wins per season. Meanwhile, their "Freeway Series" rivals have been to the postseason just ONCE in that same time span (won 98 games in 2014 but lost 3-0 in the ALDS to KC). Despite having MLB's best player in that span (Mike Trout), the LA Angels entered the 60-game 2020 season off FOUR straight losing years (averaging 76.5 wins per year). I guess it's no surprise that after a 7-4 win by the Dodgers last night in Anaheim, the Dodgers are off to a 14-7 start this season (sit atop the NL West), while the Angels are 7-13 (one-half game out of last-place in the AL West and already SEVEN games back of the division-leading A's).Taking the mound for the second contest of this three-game series on Saturday will be Walker Buehler (0-0, 4.40 ERA) for the Dodgers and Andrew Heaney (1-1, 4.26 ERA) for the Angels. Buehler made 24 appearances (23 stars) for ten Dodgers in 2018 and while he was a modest 8-5, his 2,62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .193 BAA got EVERYONE's attention. Although most of his stats were a little higher in 2019 (3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA), he went 14-4 in 30 starts. He's yet to earn a "W" in three starts in 2020 but the Dodgers have won two of his three starts. His ERA is high at 4.40 but his WHIP remains low (1.05) and his BAA is a spectacular .143! Andrew Heaney pitched seven games for Miami in 2014 but has been with the Angels since 2015. He entered this season 20-26 with a 4.44 ERA. He pitched well in his first three starts of 2020 (2.35 ERA) but he is coming off his worst start of the season when he allowed five ERs on eight hits in just 3.2 innings last Sunday in a 7-3 loss against the Texas Rangers. It's NOT good news that the Angels have lost THREE of his four starts this season. Heaney is 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers (Angels are 2-2), while Buehler has faced the Angels just once (a no-decision in 2018 after allowing two runs on six hits in five innings). Not much history for either pitcher but recent and current history conclusively favors the Dodgers. My bet says Buehler is overdue for his first win of the season and it comes tonight, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies -155 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Phi Phillies at 6:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies are just 6-9 to open the current season but are just FOUR games out of first place in the NL East. The Braves, who won the division in both 2018 and 2019, are struggling with injuries and are only 11-10, leaving the surprising 9-4 Marlins atop the division. The Phillies 'limped' into their three-game weekend series at home against the Mets off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. However, Bryce Harper singled home Roman Quinn in the bottom of the ninth inning to give Philly a dramatic 6-5 win last night. The Mets have pretty much been 'stuck in neutral,' as after 21 games they are just 9-12 (5-5 their last 10). Taking the mound in this middle contest of the three-game set will be Steven Matz (0-3, 8.20 ERA) for New York and Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.79 ERA) for Philadelphia. Matz was 11-10 with a 4.21 ERA last season but 'the skinny' was he was AWFUL away from home (3-8 with a 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA) but terrific at Citi Field (8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA). However, in three home starts this season, he's allowed 12 ERs on 18 hits (including SIX homers!) in just 15.2 innings for a 6.89 ERA. He's made just one road start and it was 'ugly,' as he allowed five ERs on seven hits over three innings. It hardly inspires confidence that he's 2-4 with a5.56 ERA in six career starts vs the Phillies (Mets are 4-6). Nola is considered Philly's 'ace.' He had a shaky 2020 debut, losing 5-2 to Miami, when he allowed four ERs on five hits over 5.1 innings. However, in his two starts since, he's allowed just two runs (two solo HRs) on five hits over 14 innings (that's a 1.29 ERA). However, the more impressive stat is that he owns a 22-1 KW ratio in his last two starts and adding in his poor 2020 debut (but a 7-1 KW ratio), Nola has 29 Ks against just two walks on the season. Throw in the fact that he's 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Mets (Phils are 9-4) and Nola over Matz is the logical play. Now, let's win it! Good luck...Larry |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mem Grizzlies at 2:30 ET on Saturday. The NBA season resumed back on July 30th in an Orlando 'bubble.' Each team would play eight games and those W/L records would be added to each teams' record as of the shutdown. A typical 16-team playoff season would follow, as all teams would be seeded 1 through 8 based on their overall record, with a lone exception. If the 9th-seed finished within four games of the No. 8 seed in either conference, those two teams would meet in a "play-in" situation. The No. 9 would need to beat the No. 8 seed in back-to-back games to earn the final playoff spot, while the No. 8 seed would need to win only once. Win Game 1 and that would end things, or win Game 2, if needed. The 'battle' for the West's final seed saw the Grizzlies begin the restart with a record of 32-33, which gave them a 3 1/2 game edge over the 29-37 Blazers. The Kings and Pelicans were each 28-36 (also 3 1/2 games back), while the Spurs checked in at 27-36 (4 games back) and the Suns at 26-39 (6 games back). Most expected the Blazers to be the biggest challenger to Memphis and Portland did go 6-2 in Orlando. However, the surprising Suns 'ran the table,' going 8-0. Memphis struggled right from the start in losing its first four games and SIX of its first seven but the team's 119-106 Thursday night win over Milwaukee guaranteed the Grizzlies at least the No. 9 seed. Phoenix routed Dallas 128-102 on Thursday and awaited the result from Portland's game with Brooklyn. Portland could claim the No. 8 seed with a win but the Blazers would miss the postseason with a loss. The Blazers eked out a 134-133 win, leaving the Suns out of luck despite their 8-0 record in Orlando (Memphis claimed the final spot with the same record as Phoenix due to its 3-1 record over the Suns on the season). That sets the stage for Saturday's game and Portland can claim the West's final playoff spot (and a date with the Lakers) with a win. Lose, and the teams meet again on Sunday, in a winner-take-all scenario. The Blazers are led by the dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard's been brilliant, averaging 37.6 PPG in Orlando, including 51.3 PPG over Portland's last three games. McCollum is averaging 20.1 PPG but his play has clearly been affected by a nondisplaced fracture in his back. The Blazers went 53-29 last season and made it all the way to the West Finals, before getting swept by the Warriors. However, Portland was suffering through a disappointing season filled with injuries and bad breaks, along with sloppy, inconsistent play. However, the COVID-19 forced break allowed the return to health of center Jusuf Nurkic and PF Zach Collins. Nurkic's been excellent (17.6-10.3-4.0) and Collins (6.3 & 7.1), steady. The real surprise in Orlando has been Gary Trent Jr, who owns a career average of 7.6 PPG, but has averaged 16.9 PPG in Orlando. Memphis went just 2-6 in the bubble, often struggling. The loss of Jaren Jackson Jr. (the team's second-leading scorer) really hurt but the team's 3½-game cushion heading into the restart helped keep them in the playoff race. Facing elimination with a loss on Thursday, the Grizzlies played their best game in Orlando. Ja Morant (12-13-10) and Jonas Valanciunas (26-19-12) became the first Grizzlies teammates to record triple-doubles in the same game, while shooting guard Brooks scored a team-high 31 points in the win over the Bucks. Morant has averaged 19.0-5.6-9.9 in the bubble, Brooks 20.1 PPG and Valanciunas 15.3 & 11.5. Conventional wisdom says Portland will advance (needs just ONE win, while Memphis must win TWICE) and Lillard has surely been Orlando's brightest star. However, Memphis beat Portland 111-104 in the teams' only regular season meeting and when these two teams tipped off against each other in the Orlando 'bubble,' Portland eked out a 140-135 win in OT. I'm taking the points and would not even be a little shocked if Memphis forced a game on Sunday! Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 120 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The San Diego Padres are coming off a 70-92 season in 2019 (36 games back of LA) but they are hoping that a shortened 60-game season (and an expanded playoff format) will allow them to break a drought of 13 consecutive non-playoff years, as well as NINE straight losing seasons. The Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 last season but that still left them 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as four games out of the NL's last wild card spot. Arizona does not expect to end LA's 'hold' on the NL West (Dodgers have won seven straight division titles) but with MLB expanding its postseason field from 10 to 16 teams, the D'backs entered the season feeling as if a playoff berth was MORE than realistic. These two NL West foes opened the current season with the Padres winning THREE of four at Petco Park and the schedule had the two teams back in San Diego for a three-game series this past weekend. The Padres won that series 2-1 but after opening a four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers with two wins at Dodger Stadium Monday and Tuesday, they were outscored a combined 17-2 on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the D'backs took two of three in Colorado (mon-Wed), scoring 32 runs in the process. The Padres are 11-9, 2 1/2 games better than the 8-11 D'backs but Arizona finally gets to play San Diego in its home park (Chase Field). The Padres will send Dinelson Lamet (2-0, 1.61 ERA) to the mound on Friday, while Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly (2-1, 2.29 ERA). Lamet's 1.61 ERA is fourth-best among NL starters who have made at least three starts this season, and he's taken a no-hitter past the fifth inning in each of his last two starts (Padres are 3-1 in his four starts). As for Kelly, he's been Arizona's most consistent starting pitcher in 2020, having gone at least six innings in each of his three starts in 2020. That includes a 3-2 win in San Diego on Aug 8 (one ER in six innings). I'll also note that Lamet beat the D'backs last weekend in San Diego as well, allowing just one run on one hit with 11 strikeouts in 6.2 innings of that 9-5 Aug 9 win. Both these young pitchers have been excellent so far but remember that Arizona was 15 games better than San Diego last season (I'm pretty sure Arizona will finish the 2020 season with a better record than San Diego, as well). Arizona got a much-needed jolt of confidence by not only taking two of three at Colorado this week but also by scoring 32 runs on 47 hits. Arizona's offense had been pretty much non-existent up to this week, as except for a 14-run outburst in a win over Houston on Aug 5, the D'backs were averaging just 2.8 RPG in their 14 other games, prior to their visit to Coors Field Mon-Wed. The D'backs have to be glad to finally get a home games vs the Padres and they win this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-20 | Islanders v. Capitals -118 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Playoff Bounce-Back is on the Was Capitals at 8:08 ET. The Washington Capitals built a two-goal lead in their Game 1 series with the NY Islanders but the Islanders scored FOUR unanswered goals in a span of just under 13 minutes bridging the second and third periods. The Isles won 4-2 and Game 2 goes Friday night. The Caps' lead was built on a pair of power-play goals in the second period by T.J. Oshie but Washington was outplayed for most of the game, ending with just 14 even-strength shots on goal against New York, while losing 11 faceoffs following an icing. The Islanders have been in the playoffs just FOUR times in the previous 12 seasons, while the Caps have been there 11 times in that same span. In NINE of those 11 playoff seasons, the Caps entered after winning their division (that's the case again, this year). However, Washington has been best-known for its playoff failures, before winning the Cup in 2018. Then again, the Caps followed winning the franchise's first-ever Stanley Cup, by losing in last year's first round (Washington went up 2-0 on Carolina, only to lose the series in Game 7 at home!). The Capitals will be without Nicklas Backstrom (54 points, including 42 assists before the stoppage of play), who is in the concussion protocol after a Game 1 hit by Anders Lee; a hit that was called "predatory" by Washington head coach Todd Reirden. The good news is that center Lars Eller is back for Washington, following the birth of his son and having quarantined for four days at the hotel. Simply put, the Caps have way more 'firepower' than the Isles, with defensemen Carlson leading the team with 75 points (60 assists) and Ovechkin's 48 goals tops among four Washington players with 20-plus goals. In contrast, the Isles' leading goal scorer is Nelson (26) and New York has only one other player with as many as 20 (Lee, who has exactly 20). To be sure, Backstrom is a big loss but the Capitals did win three of four games they played without their top center en route to winning the Stanley Cup in 2018. I'm NOT sure I trust the Caps for the entire series but I do see "BOUNCE-BACK written all over this game" for them. Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-20 | Braves -106 v. Marlins | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET. The Atlanta Braves entered the 2020 MLB season having won the NL East in each of the previous two seasons (90 wins in 2018 and 97 in 2019). Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins opened the new season having not been to the postseason since they won the 2003 World Series, a stretch of 16 seasons (Miami was 57-108 in 2019!). The Braves opened 7-3 and then went 4-3 over theri next seven games. However, Atlanta visits Miami off THREE straight losses, having allowed 28 runs! Miami took two of three at Philadelphia to open the current season but then COVID-19 struck the organization. The Marlins would miss EIGHT games (did not play from July 27-Aug 4) but when they returned to the field of play, won SIX straight games. A three-game skid followed but Miami snapped that losing streak with a 14-11 win in 10 innings Wednesday at Toronto (actually, Buffalo). With Miami at 8-4 and Atlanta at 11-9, this weekend's three-games series sets up as a battle for first place in the NL East (go figure!). The Braves will start Kyle Wright (0-2, 6.75 ERA) in Friday's game, while Miami will counter with Pablo Lopez (1-1, 1.80 ERA). Wright was the fifth overall draft pick in 2017 but has failed to live up to his potential, so far. The former Vanderbilt star is 0-5 with a 7.41 ERA in 14 career appearances, including seven starts. Lopez has surprised so far in his two starts (see above), after going 2-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 10 starts in 2018 and then 5-8 with 5.09 ERA in 21 starts in 2019 (Marlins were 7-14). The Braves are the NL East's best team but this season lasts just 60 games (not 162). They've already lost their best pitcher in 2019 All-Star Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA),as he is out for the season due to a torn Achilles tendon. Superstar left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. will miss the Marlins series due to a sore left wrist plus second baseman Ozzie Albies (sore right wrist) remains sidelined. Acuna and Albies combined for 229 runs, 65 doubles, 65 HRs and 187 RBI in 2019. Still, the Braves remain a deep team, featuring 1B Freddie Freeman, outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Nick Markakis plus shortstop Dansby Swanson. I'm not ready to call Wright a bust plus this Atlanta team is a much better group than Miami, even without some of its key players (see above). Lopez is familiar with Atlanta, having already faced them five times in his short career. However, while his ERA is a respectable 3.54 vs the Braves, he's 0-3 and Miami has lost all FIVE of his starts. Same old, same old in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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08-13-20 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Phi Phillies at 4:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies will look to avoid a three-game series sweep against the visiting The Baltimore Orioles were one of FOUR teams to lose 100-plus games in 2019 (108) but have opened the 2020 season by winning NINE of their first 16 games. That includes the first two of this three-game series at Philadelphia against the Phillies (10-9 in 10 innings and 5-4). The Phillies are a very disappointing 5-8 to open this 60-game season, leaving them in last-place in the NL East. Philly sure can't afford to get swept at home by the Orioles. Thursday's pitching matchup is Baltimore's Thomas Eshelman (0-0, 3.68 ERA) facing Philly's Jake Arrieta (1-1, 2.45 ERA). Eshelman is a former top Phillies prospect who was traded Eshelman to Baltimore Orioles on June 10, 2019. He's made 12 appearances (five starts) since then for the Orioles, going 1-2 with a 6.02 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .305 BAA. Arrieta began his career with Baltimore back in 2010 but was traded to the Cubs in 2013. He showed excellent improvement in 2014 (10-5, 2.53 ERA) and then won the NL's Cy Young award for the Cubs in 2015 (22-6 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .185 BAA). He went 18-8 (3.10 ERA / 1.08 WHIP / .195 BAA) in 2016, when the Cubs won the World Series. However, he fell off the next two seasons and signed a three-year, $75 million free agent deal with the Phillies. He's underachieved (18-19 with a 4.26 ERA) his first two seasons with Philly but in fairness, he's battled injuries these last two years. He dealt with bone spurs in his pitching elbow last season but appears completely healthy in 2020. Arrieta tossed six scoreless innings with six strikeouts against the Atlanta Braves for his first scoreless start since 2018 last Saturday (a 5-0 Philly win). After back-to-back one-run losses, the Phillies avoid the dreaded three-game home sweep and win "with room to spare." Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry |
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08-13-20 | Bucks v. Grizzlies +1 | Top | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Seeding Decider is on the Mem Grizzlies at 4:05 ET. All the postseason matchups in both conferences are set with the exception of which team will face the West's top-seeded Lakers in the first round, after the completion of Wednesday's games. The 34-39 Portland Trail Blazers currently own the No. 8 seed but the 33-39 Memphis Grizzlies, the 33-39 Phoenix Suns (perfect 7-0 in 'the bubble') and the 32-28 San Antonio Spurs (looking to reach the postseason for the 23rd consecutive season) all still have a chance to compete in the play-in series to determine the eighth spot in the West entering Thursday's pivotal slate of games. The Grizzlies, a woeful 1-6 in the bubble, are the FIRST of the above four teams to take the court on Thursday (4:05 ET), as they face the Milwaukee Bucks. Memphis holds the ninth-seed in the West, a half-game behind Portland and technically tied with Phoenix but the Grizzlies own a tie-breaker advantage over the Suns. As for San Antonio, the Grizzlies are percentage points ahead of the Spurs, .458 to .457. If Memphis wins, the Grizzlies will earn at least the No. 9 seed and if Portland loses, would earn back the No. 8 seed. The Grizzlies can also earn an invitation to the play-in series in the ninth position even with a loss, if both the Suns AND Spurs also lose on Thursday. If nothing else, the Grizzlies do control their own fate. The 56-16 Milwaukee Bucks own the NBA's best record and have had little motivation here in the bubble. The Grizzlies will not see likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in this must-win game, as he will serve a one-game suspension after he head-butted Washington's Moe Wagner following an offensive foul and verbal exchange in Tuesday's 126-113 win. Truth is, Milwaukee would have likely rested him in this meaningless game and head coach Mike Budenholzer just may play his other starters very little, as well. Jaren Jackson Jr, the Grizzlies' 2nd-leading scorer, tore the meniscus in his left knee earlier in the bubble and is out for the season. Still, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Jonas Valanciunis and Grandon Clarke are all double-digit scorers. ONE win and Memphis gets to play on. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +5.5 | Top | 124-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers can clinch the West's No. 2 with a win tonight over the Denver Nuggets (Denver is currently the No. 3 seed). However, Kwahi Leonard has said it matters little if LA is the No. 2 or No. 3 seed heading into the NBA playoffs. "There's really no homecourt advantage, no fans out there, no travel," said Leonard, according to the Los Angeles Times. "I definitely think the healthiest teams usually win it all. Guys that have the full roster, have a good bench. Hopefully we can get everybody back and if we can get a rhythm going with the guys that are here that usually play, then we'll see what happens." It's hard to argue with his logic. The 47-23 Clippers hold a 1 1/2-game lead over the Nuggets with two games remaining, while Denver is 1 1/2 games ahead of the 44-26 Houston Rockets, who own the No. 4 seed. The Clippers are just 3-3 in the Orlando 'bubble,' after losing 129-120 to the Nets on Sunday (LA allowed the rag-tag Nets to shoot 55.3% from the floor). George sat out that game, while Kawhi had 39 points. Under these circumstances, one never knows when Kwahi or George will play. Maybe George will play and Kwahi will sit. We KNOW that PGs Shamet and Beverley remain out and that while PF Montrezl Harrell (18.6 & 7.1 has returned to the bubble, he won't play against the Nuggets because he is being quarantined, Harrell could return for Friday's regular-season finale against the Oklahoma City Thunder, coach Doc Rivers said. The Nuggets last played Monday night, losing 124-121 to the Lakers, when Kyle Kuzma made a three-pointer with 0.4 seconds left in the game. "I couldn't be more proud of our group," Denver coach Michael Malone told the media after the game. "I thought we played extremely hard. That's the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. The fourth time we've played them. Every game has been a battle, it's gone down to the wire. For us to sit our starters that whole fourth quarter and to have the guys on the bench out there giving them all they could handle and lose a heartbreaker is always tough but (I'm) just so proud." EIGHT Denver players scored in double figures, led by reserve guard PJ Dozier with 18 points and forward Michael Porter Jr, who finished with 15 points on 6-of-6 shooting. Porter has "come into his own" here in Orlando, averaging 23.8 & 11.2. SF Barton (15.1 & 6.3) and SG Harris (10.4) remain out but PG Murray has returned the last two games to average 18.5-8.0-5.5. Then there is center Jokic (20.7-6.7-8.5). Denver knows it will almost assuredly have to beat both LA teams to reach The Finals and after that hard-luck loss to the Lakers on Monday, I like the Nuggets' chances here. Especially getting almost a 'TD.' Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-20 | Twins -136 v. Brewers | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019 by EIGHT games over Cleveland, finishing 101-61. It earned the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The Milwaukee Brewers entered 2020 after earning the final NL wild card spot in 2019, besting the Mets by three games. However, Milwaukee then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to the Nationals, who went on to win the World Series). The Brewers had won 96 games in 2018 and made it to the NLCS, losing to the Dodgers in a seven-game series. Minnesota opened the current season by winning 10 of its first 12 games but then lost FOUR in a row. The Twins snapped their four-game slide 4-2 at Milwaukee on Monday but fell 6-4 last night. At 11-7, the Twins lead the AL Central but three teams lurk within two games. Milwaukee hasn't been above .500 all season and currently sits 7-8, already 4 1/2 games behind the 11-3 Cubs. The teams play the rubber match of the series tonight, as Kenta Maeda (2-0, 2.65 ERA) squares off against Eric Lauer (0-1, 9.53 ERA). Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gives Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. Maeda made his main mark with the Dodgers in the bullpen in the playoffs. Only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. He's proving his point, opening with back-to-back wins (1.64 ERA), before the bullpen collapsed in his last outing (Maeda left with a 5-3 lead but the bullpen coughed up three runs in the 8th and 9th). Eric Lauer (0-1, 9.53 ERA) will be making his first career appearance against the Twins. Lauer struggled in his only start this season against Cincinnati on Friday night, allowing six ERs on five hits and three walks in an 8-3 loss. His only other appearance of 2020 was back on July 26, when he pitched 2.2 scoreless innings in a 9-1 loss to the Cubs. This is Lauer's third season in "the bigs" (1st two with San Diego) and in 55 appearances (53 starts), he's 14-18 with a 4.51 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and a .275 BAA. Minnesota's bats shouldn't have much trouble scoring off him and I sure like what I've seen of Maeda, so far! Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians -115 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET. The Chicago Cubs played at Cleveland last night, taking the field for the first time since last Thursday, when they saw their six-game winning streak snapped in a 13-2 loss at Kansas City. Chicago's weekend series at St Louis was shelved entirely after more positive coronavirus tests involving Cardinals' players and staff forced the entire series to be postponed. The Cubs were back in action for the first time in five days and their bats showed no 'rust (seven runs on 11 hits) while veteran lefty Jon Lester continued his strong start in 2020. He went six innings, allowing one ER. He's 2-0 in three starts (Cubs are 3-0), posting a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and .117 BAA.Cleveland welcomed the Cubs to Progressive Field last night, having won FIVE of its last six. Cleveland pitchers owned a major-league-low 2.04 ERA and hadn't given up more than five runs in any game this season, while opponents were hitting just .188 on the year. Starter Adam Plutko was just fine (one ER in 4 IP) but four relievers allows six ERs on seven hits in five inning. Meanwhile, Lester DOMINATED the Cleveland lineup (see above). The teams complete a quick two-game series tonight, as Kyle Hendricks (2-1, 3.54 ERA) takes on Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 2.50 ERA). Hendricks has been a solid starter for the Cubs but so far, he seems to be following a similar pattern to last year. Hendricks owned a 2.04 ERA and .206 BAA at Wrigley but a 5.02 ERA and .290 BAA on the road. He's won both of his home starts in 2020 (1.13 ERA & .179 BAA) but in his lone road start, allowed six Ers in just 4.1 innings (12.46 ERA and .368 BAA), Carlos Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 back on July 27, as he won his first start in 423 days! Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but days later was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, the 18-game winner in 2017 looked like his old dominant self against the Royals. Carrasco also pitched reasonably well at Minnesota on Aug 1 but allowed three solo HRs (over six innings) in a 3-0 loss. He then pitched six scoreless innings (allowed just ONE hit) in Cleveland's 13-0 over Cincy last Thursday. Carrasco's comeback has everyone rooting for him and I had him in his easy win over the Reds last Thursday and will 'go to the well' with him again, here! Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies +100 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator at 3:10 ET. The Colorado Rockies went 71-91 in 2019, leaving them a whopping 35 games back of the NL West champion LA Dodgers. The Rockies opened a three-game series at home with the Arizona D'backs on Monday, having opened 11-4, the franchise's best 15-game start since 2013. Arizona is coming off an 85-77 season (21 games back of LA) but had hopes of making the 2020 postseason, which has been expanded from 10 to 16 teams. So far, NOT so good. The D'backs beat the D'backs on Monday but then lost 8-7 last night. Arizona takes the field Wednesday 7-11 and last in the NL West, 5 1/2 games back of the 12-4 first-place Rockies..The pitching matchup for the rubber match of this series will be Luke Weaver (0-3, 12.19 ERA) and Antonio Senzatela (3-0, 2.65 ERA). Weaver pitched his first three seasons with the Cardinals, making 52 appearances (43 starts) while going 15-17, 4.79 ERA. The Cardinals traded Weaver to Arizona before the 2019 season and while Weaver appeared in just 12 games (all starts), he posted a 2.94 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 64.1 IP. So much for him "finding himself!' Weaver has not pitched past the 4th inning in ANY of his first three starts this season, going 0-3 with a 12.19 ERA, 2.13 WHIP and a .348 BAA (OUCH!). Weaver is 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in four games (including three starts) in his career against Colorado. As for Senzatela, let me get "the bad stuff" out of the way. He is 2-5 in 11 career games (seven starts) against the Diamondbacks. He is 2-4 with a 6.25 ERA as a starter against Arizona. He entered this season 27-22 with a 5.33 ERA in his first three seasons with the Rockies but he's opened the current season 3-0 with a 1.18 WHIP and .227 BAA to go along with his solid 2.65 ERA. Colorado leads all of MLB with a team BA of .277 and owns MLB's hottest hitter in Charlie Blackmon. He had three more hits Tuesday to extend his hitting streak to 15 games and leads the majors with a .500 average. Colorado's pitching has a rough go Monday and Tuesday but team 3.64 ERA ranks 6th-best in MLB, after last year's 5.56 ERA ranked 29th of 30 teams. The Rockies have won ALL five series they have played this season and need a "W" here to keep that streak intact. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-20 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -131 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Bruins at 11:00 ET Wednesday morning. The NHL was shut down in March but returned to play with a unique postseason set-up that featured best-of-five qualifying series for 16 teams and a round robin of seeding games between the NHL's top-4 teams in each conference. The Eastern Conference would play in Toronto, while the West competes in Edmonton. The Boston Bruins' 100 points were the most of any NHL team prior to the stoppage of play but Boston 'laid an egg' in its tune-up for the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, going 0-3 in round robin play. Therefore, the team with the best record in the conference during the regular season gets the No. 4 seed in the East. In stark contrast to Boston, Carolina made it a 3-0 sweep of the NY Rangers in its qualifying series. The Hurricanes entered the postseason as the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference but moved up a spot when the Pittsburgh Penguins were eliminated. The Carolina-Boston matchup is a rematch of the 2019 Eastern Conference finals, which the Bruins swept in four games. Carolina's top goal scorers in the regular season, Aho (38) and Svechnikov (24) each contributed three goals in the sweep of the Rangers, with Aho adding five assists for a team-high eight points. Petr Mrazek was in goal for the first two games against the Rangers (2-0, 1.50 GAA & .940 SP), before James Reimer was called upon for Game 3 (1-0, 1.00 GAA & .974 SP). Which goalie will get the nod tonight? "Players trust both guys," head coach Rod Brind'Amour said. "... We're right either way we go, that's how we feel. For us, we have two good options." Boston top-line of Pastrnak (48 goals & 95 points), Marchand (28 goals & 87 points) and Bergeron (31 goals & 56 points) were non-factors while the Bruins went 0-3 (zero goals and one assist, combined. No. 1 goalie Tukka Rask did not play in Boston's first game but did play the next two. Boston lost both games but it wasn;t Rask's fault (2,55 GAA & .917 SP). There are some questions as to Pastrnak and Bergeron's health but both are expected to play. That said, I'm really counting on Rask to be the key. He led all goalies this regular season with a 2.12 GAA and his SP of .929 ranked second. He led the Bruins into the Stanley Cup Finals in both 2013 and 2019 (fell short of the title both times) but isn't it about time for the "real" Bruins team to show up. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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08-11-20 | A's +128 v. Angels | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET. Mike Trout homered twice Monday night, including a tiebreaking shot in the eighth inning, as the Los Angeles Angels rallied from an early five-run deficit for a 10-9 victory that snapped the Oakland Athletics' NINE-game winning streak. The A's are 12-5 and the ONLY team in the AL West with a winning record. The Angels are just 6-11, SIX games back and in last place.The AL West foes continue their three-game series tonight, as Mike Fiers (1-0, 5.63 ERA) squares off against Dylan Bundy (2-1, 2.08 ERA). Fiers faced the Angels back on July 26, allowing four ERs on seven hits in just four innings, but the A's won 6-4. He is 6-3 with a 4.72 ERA in14 starts against the Angels, but his teams are 10-4. Bundy has been the better pitcher in the early going of 2020. He was acquired from Baltimore in a trade last December and pitched a shutout ball into the seventh inning in his Angels debut, in a 4-1 victory over the Athletics back on July 25 in Oakland. He is coming off the best performance by an Angels starter so far this season, as Bundy threw a complete game, allowing one run on four hits (10-0 KW ratio) in a 6-1 victory at Seattle last Thursday. Bundy is 3-1 with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts against Oakland (teams are 4-1). Yes, Bundy has the better current form but the A's are a MUCH better team than the Angels plus the bottom line is, Oakland usually wins when Fiers gets the start. Fiers set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 46 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 34-12, 74% in those contests! Good enough for me, especially at this 'juicy' price. The 6-11 team is a solid favorite over the 12-5 one! Good luck...Larry |
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08-11-20 | Cubs +134 v. Indians | Top | 7-1 | Win | 134 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET. The Chicago Cubs were last on the field this past Thursday, when they saw their six-game winning streak snapped in a 13-2 loss at Kansas City. Chicago's weekend series at St Louis was shelved entirely after more positive coronavirus tests involving Cardinals' players and staff forced the entire series to be postponed. The Cubs have opened 10-3 and will be back in action for the first time in five days, when they take on the Indians in Cleveland. The Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the 101-61 Twins. Cleveland welcomes the Cubs to Progressive Field with a 10-7 record, having won FIVE of its last six.Taking the mound for Chicago is veteran lefty Jon Lester (1-0, 0.82 ERA). Cleveland was expected to start Mike Clevinger (1-1, 3.24 ERA) but like with Zach Plesac, he was sent home from Chicago for violating team protocols during the trip (he will have to undergo subsequent testing while under quarantine). Lester struggled with his consistency in 2019, going 13-10 and his 4.46 ERA was his highest since 2012. Lester is entering the final season of a six-year, $155 million deal signed with Chicago prior to the 2015 campaign and he's off to a strong start in his "contract year." He's looking for a THIRD consecutive strong outing, after allowing just one ER one run over 11 innings in his first two starts (0.55 WHIP and .103 BAA to go along with his 0.82 ERA!). Cleveland pitchers own a major-league-low 2.04 ERA and haven't given up more than five runs in any game this season, while opponents are hitting just .188 on the year. However, Plutko will be making his second start of the season, having thrown six innings of two-run ball against the White Sox back on July 28 (he also threw a scoreless inning in relief against the Cincinnati Reds last Thursday). Pluko began his major league career in 2016 (just two appearances) and takes the mound with just 42 appearances (33 starts) while owning a 12-10 record and a 4.99 ERA. Don't see him being able to match Lester, who is 8-4 (3.06 ERA) in 19 career starts vs Cleveland (teams are 13-6). Good luck...Larry |
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08-10-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -130 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET. The Colorado Rockies went 71-91 in 2019, leaving them a whopping 35 games back of the NL West champion LA Dodgers. The Rockies return to Denver on Monday, off a 5-3 Sunday loss at Seattle. However, the Rockies had won the first two of their three-game set with the Mariners and have won ALL five series they have played this season. Colorado is 11-4 and off to its best 15-game start since 2013! Arizona is off an 85-77 season (21 games back of LA) but had hopes of making the 2020 postseason, which has been expanded from 10 to 16 teams. So far, NOT so good. The D'backs opened the season losing three of four at San Diego and comes off losing two of three this past weekend against the Padres, again playing in San Diego. Arizona comes to Coors Field 6-10 and last in the NL West. Before discussing the game's starting pitchers, a little about the teams. The Rockies lead all of MLB with a .261 BA and their pitching staff owns a team ERA of 2.84, which ranks 4th-best. When one considers Colorado's team ERA was 5.56 (29th of 30 teams in 2019), that's QUITE an improvement. In comparison, the D'backs are batting just .211 as a team (amazingly, SIX teams are actually hitting worse!) and Arizona's pitching staff sports a 5.48 ERA (29th of 30 teams)! Arizona lefty Robbie Ray (1-2, 9.45 ERA) gets the nod tonight at Coors Field, opposed by Colorado's Jon Gray (0-1, 3.31 ERA). Ray has clearly struggled in his first three starts (1.95 WHIP to go along with his 9.45 ERA). He will make his 18th career start against Colorado, going 5-5 with a 5.20 ERA in his first 17 (team is 6-11). Gray also makes his fourth start of 2020 and has deserved much better than to be winless. Colorado's offense has been one of the best in the league but in Gray's three starts, the offense has scored just two runs in each contest, while he was in the game. That HAS to change! Opposing hitters are batting just .194 Gray and remember, Arizona is hitting .211 as a team in 2020. What's more, excluding Arizona's 14-run outburst against Houston back on August 5th, the D'backs have averaged a woeful 2.8 RPG in their other 15 games. The Rockies had scored four or more runs in 12 straight games before Sunday's 5-3 loss and my bet says gray gets the support he needs tonight to pick up his first win. Good luck...Larry |
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08-10-20 | Nationals v. Mets +113 | Top | 16-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The New York Mets finally won their first series of the 2020, taking the final two games of their three-game set with the surprising Miami Marlins. Miami didn't play from July 27 through August 3, after 18 players tested positive for the coronavirus but the the Marlins returned to the field on August 4 and won their first SIX games (reaching 7-1). They missed out on a chance to match the best nine-game start in franchise history on Saturday night, when the Mets hit three HRs in an 8-4 victory. The victory was just New York's THIRD, in a 10-game stretch. New York won again 4-2 on Sunday, as Jacob deGrom moved to 2-0 on the season. The Mets are 3-1 in his starts, with deGrom owning a 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .198 BAA. The Washington Nationals visit Citi Filed to open a four-game series with the Mets on Monday. The defending champs are sure not playing like World Series champs, as the Nats have lost three straight games and were four innings from potentially getting swept by the crosstown Baltimore Orioles (for a 4th straight loss), when their Sunday game was suspended due to rain and a tarp issue (Washington trailed, 5-2, at the time). Nationals currently sit at 4-7, having lost three games due to the COVID-19 related issues of the Marlins These teams just met in a two-game series in Washington last Tuesday and Wednesday, with the Nats winning 5-3 in the first contest and the Mets rebounding to take the next game, 3-1. Tonight's pitching matchup is a battle of left-handers, as Washington's Patrick Corbin (1-0, 3.00 ERA) takes on New York's Steven Matz (0-2, 5.65 ERA). It's a 're-hook' from last Tuesday's 5-3 Washington win. Corbin allowed three ERs on eight hits over 5.2 innings, while Matz allowed five ERs on seven hits over just three innings. Corbin had a solid season for the Nats in 2019, going 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 33 starts (Washington was 21-12). However, he's just 3-5 with a 4.59 ERA in 15 career games (14 starts / teams are 6-8) against the Mets. Matz is now 1-6 (3.91 ERA) in 13 career starts vs Washington, although the Mets are a more respectable 6-7 in those starts. Matz was 11-10 with a 4.21 ERA last season but here's 'the skinny.' He was AWFUL away from home (3-8 with a 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA) but terrific at Citi Field (8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA). The Nationals look disinterested so far and I'm not ready to give up on the Mets, just yet. Matz is the play at Citi Field. Good luck...Larry |
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08-10-20 | Raptors +6 v. Bucks | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 6:30 ET. The Bucks (55-15) have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the second season in a row, despite uneven play in the 'bubble' (Milwaukee is just 2-3 SU and ATS). The Raptors lost Friday for the first time since the season restart (122-100 to the Boston Celtics) but they rebounded Sunday afternoon with a 108-99 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies to clinch the No. 2 seed in the conference at 50-19 (4-1 SU & ATS in the 'bubble.'). Milwaukee has been the East's best regular season for the last two seasons but the Raptors ARE the defending champs and have given every indication that they are ready to make a run at back-to-back titles. How much can this game really mean to Milwaukee? The Bucks have won the two previous meetings between the teams this season, 115-105 at home on Nov 2 and 108-97 at Toronto on Feb 25. There is no denying the Bucks have struggled at times since the restart, as if not for a 'miracle' comeback vs Miami last Thursday, the Bucks would be just 1-4 ATS. Meanwhile, the Raptors sport a terrific seven-man rotation with guards Lowry, VanVleet and Powell plus frontcourt players Siakam, Anunoby, Gasol and Ibaka. In particular, VanVleet (19.4-4.2-6.8) has been outstanding. Giannis Antetokounmpo should win his second straight MVP award (he's spectacular) but he's listed as probable due to a toothache (DON'T downplay that!). Either way, I'm "all over" Toronto with the points in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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08-09-20 | Indians -124 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 7:08 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 893 wins left them EIGHT games behind the 101-61 Twins. Cleveland's 7-1 Saturday win in Chicago over the White Sox, gives the team FOUR wins in its last five games and a 9-7 record (Twins have opened 10-5). The White Sox began this season's 60-game schedule having NOT made the postseason since 2008 (just two winning seasons in that 11-year span). However, the White Sox are a MUCH better team this season and have opened 8-7 (beat Cleveland 2-0 on Friday). The two AL Central foes meet in the rubber match of the series, tonight. ESPN was set to feature the Chicago Cubs at the St Louis Cardinals but that series was postponed due to the Cardinals' ongoing bout with positive COVID-19 tests. The bright lights of ESPN's "Sunday Night Baseball" will now feature Cleveland at Chicago, with the White Sox last appearing in the Sunday night slot back on May 12, 2013! The pitching matchup is a good one, as Cleveland's Shane Bieber (3-0, 0.83 ERA) squares off against Chicago's Lucas Giolito (1-1, 5.17 ERA). Bieber is looking to claim a FOURTH straight win. He enters Sunday with a major league best 35 strikeouts, the third-most in history through three starts. He has walked just THREE batters, while allowing only 12 hits over 21.2 innings (0.69 WHIP to go along with his 0.83 ERA and .160 BAA). Giolito had an 'ugly' 2020 debut, allowing seven ERs over just 3.2 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Twins. However, he has recovered from that rough outing on Opening Day, by holding Cleveland and Milwaukee to two runs on eight hits in 12 combined innings over his last two starts (1.50 ERA with 15 Ks). Giolito posted a horrific 6.13 ERA in 2018 but turned things around in a big way last season, going 14-9, 3.41 ERA (he made the last year's All Star team). He opened the 2020 season as Chicago's ace. However, he currently can't match Bieber and I'm not ready to put Chicago in the same class of Cleveland, as a team. The Indians take the rubber game, as Bieber moves to 4-0! Good luck...Larry |
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08-09-20 | 76ers v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Por Blazers at 6:35 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are 42-27, which currently leaves them as the East's No. 6 seed. However, they are just a halg0game back of Miami and Indiana, which are tied for the No. 4 seed. The bad news for Philly is that Ben Simmons suffered a dislocated left kneecap during Wednesday's victory over the Washington Wizards. Philadelphia announced that he will undergo a procedure to remove a loose body from the knee. There wasn't an immediate timetable announced but it's likely that the 76ers won't see Simmons on the floor again until the 2020-21 campaign. Portland suffered a costly 122-117 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday, even though Kawhi was rested by LA. The loss drops them 1 1/2 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies (currently eighth-place team in the West). Just as much of a concern is that the Blazers are just a half-game ahead of the San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns plus one game in front of the New Orleans Pelicans for the play-in berth (9th-seed). Yes, Portland is playing the second of back-to-back games but ALL the motivation lies with them. This is almost a "must-win." A victory for Portland would be HUGE, as Memphis is playing Toronto (Grizzlies are 7-point underdogs) plus the Spurs and Pelicans are playing each other (one team HAS to lose). Portland has seen the return from injury of two key performers. Center Jusuf Nurkic is finally back on the court and he's averaged 19.6-11.4-4-5.2 in five games. Also, PF Zach Collins is back, averaging 7.0 & 7.4 in about 27 minutes per game. Portland relies heavily on one of the NBA's best backcourts in Lillard and McCollum but don't dismiss the contributions of Carmelo Anthony. He's been a HUGE surprise all season. Then there is second-year pro Gary Trent Jr, who has a career average of 7.5 PPG, but is averaging 20.6 PPG "in the bubble." Damian Lillard scored 22 points but was taking blame for Saturday's loss. He missed two free throws with the Blazers down by one with 18.6 seconds left and was off the mark with a three-pointer that could have tied the score with 9.5 seconds to play. Lillard tied his franchise record with 11 three-pointers and scored 45 points in Portland's 125-115 win over the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night. Expect a HUGE game from him here and lay the 'short' price with Portland. Good luck...Larry |
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08-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays -108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the TB Rays at 1:10 ET. The New York Yankees had a SEVEN-game winning streak (July 26-Aug 3) but will face the Rays on Sunday in the final contest of this four-game series, having lost FOUR of six. The Rays opened the season 4-1 (all games at home) but then lost FIVE in a row (all on the road). The Rays returned home and split two games with Boston and have now taken TWO of three to New York (loss came vs Gerrit Cole, who is 0-4). The pitching matchup for the series finale will be New York's James Paxton (0-1, 13.50 ERA) and Tampa's Charlie Morton(1-1, 5.52 ERA). 2019 was Paxton's first with the Yankees and ended July just 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA. However, he then went 10-0 over his final 11 regular season starts (NYY were 11-0), posting a 1.05 ERA in five September starts. His 29 starts, 18 wins and 251 Ks were all career highs (held opponents to a .210 BA). Paxton was recovering from a back injury when MLB was shut down back in March but New York said he was fully recovered when play began in late-July. Then again, maybe not. He pitched just ONE inning in his season debut at Washington on July 25 (allowed five hits and three ERs) and in his second start (Aug 2 vs Boston), made it through just three innings while allowing five runs (three earned) on seven hits. Morton turned his career around after signing with Houston in 2017, going 29-10 in 2017-18. That got him a two-year, $30 million deal with Tampa Bay and Morton went 16-6, 3.05 ERA in 2019 for the Rays. He made his second All Star team last year plus set career highs in wins (16), ERA (3.05), innings (?194.2) and in strikeouts (240). He also led all major league pitchers in HRs/9 innings pitched, at 0.694.[29]. However, Morton allowed six ERs (4 IP) in his first start of 2020 and was better in his second, allowing two ERs over five innings. He then looked more like himself this past Tuesday against Boston, when he allowed one run in 5.2 innings Tuesday. He gave up a HR to Mitch Moreland in the second inning and then retired nine of the last 10 hitters (Rays won, 5-1). The Yanks got bad news on Saturday, as Giancarlo Stanton tweaked his hamstring on a slide at second base during New York's 5-3 loss in yesterday's second game of the doubleheader. Here's the rub. The Rays are at home this season, giving them a 22-5 record in their last 27 regular-season home games! Paxton is pitching on six days' rest but is he really healthy? He has yet to complete three innings in each of his first two starts. As for Morton, he is 2-0 with an 0.77 ERA in two starts against the Yankees at Tropicana Field, where New York has lost SIX of its last seven! Good luck...Larry |
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08-09-20 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Run-Line Rout is on the NY Mets at 1:10 ET I saw where Karl Ravech tweeted, "The Marlins story of 2020 is so unfathomable yet steering the ship on field and navigating the challenges off it Don Mattingly has been the perfect voice." It's hard to disagree but let's NOT forget that the 2019 Marlins went an NL-worst 57-105. Miami didn't play from July 27 through August 3, after 18 players tested positive for the coronavirus. However, the Marlins missed out on a chance to match the best nine-game start in franchise history on Saturday night, when their six-game winning streak was snapped as the Mets hit three HRs in an 8-4 victory. The victory was just New York's THIRD, in a 10-game stretch (Mets are just 6-9, while the Marlins are 7-2). Pablo Lopez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is scheduled to become the first Marlins pitcher to make a second start this season, as Miami is the first team in baseball history to start a different pitcher in each of the season's first nine games. The Mets will counter with two-time reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.12), who is making his fourth start of the year. Lopez is in his third season with Miami and comes off a 2019 season in which he made 21 starts, going 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA (Marlins were 7-14 in his starts). He did earn the win in his season debut Tuesday, when the Marlins returned to action and he allowed two hits while striking out seven over five innings in a 4-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. He is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. DeGrom is trying to become just the third pitcher, after Hall of Famers Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson, to win three straight Cy Young Awards. He has picked up where he left off last season, allowing just 12 baserunners in 17 innings. He owns a 2.12 ERA and an 0.71 WHIP (22-3 KW ratio), while holding opposing batter to a .153 BAA. Holding down an opponent is rarely the problem when deGrom takes the mound, rather it's the Mets' inability to get him runs in support. However, the Mets did give him SEVEN runs last Tuesday against the Braves (his 1st "W" of 2020) and I'm NOT 'buying into' the Marlins being a serious contender. I noted the team's 2019 record above and will add that Miami batted .241 as a team (25th) and averaged 3.8 RPG (29th of 30 teams) over the entire 2019 season. Expect deGrom to shut Miami down and for the Mets to give him enough support to 'cover' laying the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry |
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08-08-20 | Bucks v. Mavs +5 | Top | 132-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. The Dallas Mavericks have lost THREE of their first four games in the Orlando 'bubble.' The team played three straight highly competitive contests (a 153-149 OT loss to Houston, a 117-115 loss to Phoenix and then a 114-110 OT win against SA), before getting blown out 126-111 by the Clippers on Thursday. The 41-30 Mavs are almost 'locked into' the West's No. 7 and their likely first-round opponent will be the Clippers (not exactly something to look forward to). The Milwaukee Bucks are an NBA-best 55-14, although they've played back-to-back 'curious' games. The Bucks lost 119-116 to the injury-riddled Nets on Tuesday, as 19-point favorites (the contest ranks as the NBA's largest point spread upset in 27 years and according to ESPN, teams favored by 19 or more had gone 49-2 SU over the past 30 years). They then fell behind by as many as 23 points to the Miami Heat on Thursday (Heat were without Butler and Dragic), only to come back to earn the 130-116 win (AND cover!). Milwaukee is just 2-2 since the season resumed. A closer look into that loss to the Nets reveals that Giannis only played the first half as head coach Mike Budenholzer decided to rest some of his starters (no Milwaukee starter played more than 20 minutes against Brooklyn). Not sure I want to guess what Budenholzer's strategy will be these last four games, as the Bucks have wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. As for the Mavs, they could sure use a confidence builder. Completing a two-game season sweep of the Bucks may be "just what the doctor ordered." Dallas ended Milwaukee's 18-game winning streak 120-116 back on Dec 16 on the Bucks' home floor. Revenge for Milwaukee? As noted above, do they really have any motivation for that? There hasn't been a better 'one-two punch' in Orlando than Doncic (32.8-11.0-9.8) and Porzingis (30.3 & 10.0) and I'm expecting another OUTRIGHT win. I had OKC plus-6 in that 105-86 of the Lakers on Weds and Boston plus-3 in its 122-100 win over Toronto, last night. Good things always come in threes! Good luck...Larry |
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08-08-20 | Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Det/Pit Under at 4:05 ET. The Detroit Tigers had their four-game series with St Louis postponed due to the Cardinals' coronavirus outbreak (Mon-Thu), so Friday's game at Pittsburgh was the team's first on the field action since the Tigers lost a doubleheader (both 7-inning games) last Sunday to the Reds. The Tigers took a 5-5 record into last night's contest in Pittsburgh, facing a Pirates team that owned MLB's worst record (3-10). What 'broke out' last night was an 11-inning slugfest in which the Tigers won 17-13 (both teams had 16 hits). The series continues late Saturday afternoon, as Ivan Nova (0-0, 4.22 ERA) takes on Derek Holland (0-0, 4.76 ERA). I will make this short and 'SWEET!' Neither Nova nor Holland are anything more than journeymen but Nova pitched for the Pirates from 2016-18 and has made 31 career starts at PNC Park, posting a 2.75 ERA. Holland has a 4.96 ERA in nine career starts vs the Pirates but his teams have gone 7-2. Expect both starters to fair well here, after last night's offensive 'explosion.' Let me remind all that Detroit entered last night's game averaging 3.80 RPG on the season, while Pittsburgh entered averaging 3.46 RPG. This game is Goin' Under! Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-20 | Canucks v. Wild -114 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Min Wild at 10:45 ET. Vancouver lost 3-0 in the opener of its best-of-five qualifying series with 10th-seeded Minnesota but the seventh-seeded Canucks have bounced back to win two in a row. Vancouver won Game 2 last Tuesday 4-3 and then grabbed the series lead with a 3-0 victory on Thursday afternoon in Game 3, 'returning the favor' for Minnesota's 3-0 win in Game 1. Vancouver goalie Jacob Markstrom earned his first career playoff shutout with 27 saves and the Canucks 'killed off' SEVEN power plays! Markstrom has stopped 87 of the 92 shots this series, giving him a .946 save percentage. Minnesota's Alex Stalock has held his own in goal, owning a 2.36 GAA and .918 SP. The Wild HAVE to be frustrated by the fact than the Canucks were able to block 14 shots, as Markstrom had to face only 27 shots on goal. "Unbelievable," Markstrom said. "You hear it on the bench every time someone blocked a shot. Every time somebody blocked a shot, everyone is pounding their stick, hitting the boards. It gets everybody fired up." This is a quick turnaround and I'm expecting the Wild to finally break through. The Wild are 0-for-13 on the power play over the last two games (both losses), including 0-for-7 on Thursday. "Desperate hockey," Minnesota forward Marcus Foligno said. "I think we're a good team when we play desperate, so we should bring out the best hockey that we've played all year tomorrow. There's not one guy in (the locker room) that is thinking about going home." I'm with Foligno and my bet is that this series goes FIVE! Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-20 | Celtics +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 122-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 9:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors had won four straight when the NBA season was shut down due to COVID-19 and have added THREE straight wins in the Orlando 'bubble.' The Raptors' seven-game winning streak is an NBA-best and Toronto (49-18) takes on the 45-23 Boston Celtics Friday night, knowing a win will clinch the East's No. 2 seed. The Celtics are 2-2 in Orlando but have won two of the three meetings with the Raptors this season. The Celtics last played on Wednesday, routing the under-manned Nets,149-115. Boston shot 56.8 percent from the floor, including making 20 of 39 three-point attempts. SEVEN players scored in double digits, a group which didn't include PG Kemba Walker. Walker sat out to rest his sore left knee but is expected to play against Toronto. With Walker playing, Boston features five double-digit scorers, led by Jayson Tatum (23.3 & 7.0) Toronto has SIX players averaging in double digits, led by Pascal Siakam (23.3 & 7.5). Toronto is currenting receiving excellent production from guard Fred VanVleet, who scored a career-best 36 points in Monday's 107-103 win over the Miami Heat and followed that up with 21 points and 10 assists in Wednesday's victory over Orlando. A concern could be PG Lowry, who was 2-for-9 shooting effort against Orlando and leaving him 4 of 17 from the floor over the past two games (just 22 points), after scoring 33 points (along with grabbing 14 rebounds) in Toronto's 107-92 rout of the Lakers. I'm really starting to 'warm' to the idea that Toronto has a legitimate chance at repeating as NBA champs this year (minus Kawhi) but I don't like them here. I noted that Toronto can clinch the East's No. 2 seed with a win but practically, the Raptors have already clinched the No. 2 seed. The only way for Toronto to NOT earn the No. 2 seed would be to lose each one of its final FIVE games, while the Celtics win each of their remaining FOUR. Not happening! For me, the motivation edge here is with Boston, who could take the series (3-1) from Toronto with a win and give them some extra confidence in a possible matchup with the Raptors in the Eastern semis.. Any points are just a bonus! Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-20 | Oilers -131 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -131 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Edm Oilers at 6:45 ET Chicago entered the postseason as the 12th and final Western Conference playoff team after a 32-30-8 regular-season record, finishing NINE points behind fifth-seeded Edmonton. The Blackhawks beat the Oilers 6-4 in Game 1 and the final score was closer than the actual game. Chicago outshot Edmonton 42-29 for the game and outscored the Oilers 3-0 in even-strength play. The Oilers scored twice in the final four minutes to make the score respectable. Edmonton bounced back with a 6-3 Game 2 win, highlighted by Connor McDavid's first-ever playoff hat trick. Chicago then grabbed a 2-1 series lead on Wednesday with a dramatic comeback victory. The Blackhawks trailed by a goal late in the third period, but Matthew Highmore tied the score with 5:47 remaining and Jonathan Toews put Chicago on top with 1:16 to go. That sets the stage for Chicago to advance to the Western Conference quarterfinals with a win in Game 4 against Edmonton. Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford has started all three games so far, but only owns a 4.33 GAA and an .859 save percentage during the series. Edmonton started Mike Smith in goal for Game 1 but after he allowed five goals on 23 shots, he was pulled from the game. Mikko Koskinen stopped 18 of 19 shots in relief of Smith, allowing only a power-play goal from Kubalik. Game 1 marked the first playoff appearance of Koskinen's NHL career and he's played the bulk of the minutes this series. Koskinen is 1-1-0 with a 3.21 GAA and an .886 save percentage. The Blackhawks have won three Stanley Cup titles since 2010 but this edition in NO WAY resembles those teams (2010, 2013 & 2015). The Oilers have something of a unique home-ice advantage since all Western Conference playoff games (and the Stanley Cup Final) are being played in Edmonton but then again, there are NO fans plus the Oilers are staying within the same "bubble" environment as every other team throughout the postseason. That said, I still believe Edmonton has an edge playing in its home arena. The Oilers "let one slip away" in Game 3 but can force a Game 5 with a win here. That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-20 | Yankees -105 v. Rays | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the NY Yankees at 6:40 ET. The NYY began the 60-game 2020 MLB season as strong favorites to capture the AL East (won 103 games in 2019) and win the AL pennant (Yanks were co-favorites with the Dodgers to win the World Series). The Tampa Bay Rays won 96 games to finish seven games behind the Yankees in 2019 (earned a wild card spot) and were seen as a potent challenger to the Yankees in the AL East for the originally scheduled 162-game season Even when the 60-game season was announced, the Rays were still considered a formidable challenger to the Yankees. However, while the Yankees opened 8-1 and sit 9-3 as this four-game series with the Rays opens on Friday (DH scheduled for Saturday), Tampa Bay has lost SIX of seven since a 4-1 start (Rays are currently 5-7, FOUR games back). Tampa Bay's pitching was an expected strength and the Rays own a 3.63 ERA (9th-best in MLB). However, Tampa Bay's offense has been a HUGE problem, as the Rays enter this series with a .211 team batting average, a .303 on-base percentage and have not scored more than five runs in any game since July 27 (that's an eight-game stretch).The Yankees have homered in a team-record 12 straight games to start the season and in preparation for this series, did not start Aaron Judge (.302 / 7 HRs / 17 RBI) and DJ LeMahieu (leads the AL with a .429 BA) in yesterday's game. Taking the mound will be New York's Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 3.38 ERA), who will make his second start since returning from a mild concussion sustained in a simulated game July 4. He will likely be on a pitch count after allowing two runs on four hits and throwing 51 pitches in 2.2 innings during Saturday's 5-2 win over Boston. Blake Snell (0-0, 5.40 ERA) gets the nod for Tampa Bay. Snell has not thrown more than 53 pitches in either of his first two starts (Rays are 1-1 in his starts). Snell won the Cy Young award in the AL in 2018 (21-5, 1.89 ERA and 0.97 WHIP) but went just 6-8 in a 2019 season that saw injuries limit him to just 23 starts (he was 6-8, as his ERA climbed to 4.29 and his WHIP rose to 1.27). Who knows if Snell will ever regain his 2018 form? Meanwhile, Tanaka enters his seventh season for New York, going 75-43 (.636) his first six seasons (3.75 ERA and 1,13 WHIP). He's 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 18 career starts against Tampa Bay (Yanks are 13-5), while posting a 1.79 ERA in his last eight starts against the Rays. Meanwhile, Snell is 3-6 with a 4.41 ERA in 16 career starts against the Yankees (Rays are 7-9). Yanks grab the win! Good luck...Larry |
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08-06-20 | Blazers -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Por Blazers at 8:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets are 2-1 since the restart after earning a 132-126 win over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday. The victory gives them a 45-23 record, just a half-game back of the Clippers for the West's No. 2 seed. The Nuggets are right back on the court tonight, taking on the Portland Trail Blazers, who are also 2-1 in the NBA's Orlando 'bubble.' Portland is off an impressive 110-102 win over the Rockets on Tuesday and with Memphis losing all FOUR of its games since the restart, find themselves just ONE game back of the West's No. 8 seed. Denver returned to play missing THREE key starters and I'm not sure when any of them will return. PG Murray (18.8 & 4.8 APG) has a hamstring problem, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-2.7) has a knee issue and SG Harris (10.4) is bothered by his hip. Jokic (20-4-10.1-7.0 on the season) is 'the center of attention' (pardon the pun) but the team's 'hero' has been Michael Porter Jr. The PF had just 11 points in the team's 125-105 opening loss vs the Heat but he's scored 67 points and grabbed 27 rebounds in Denver's last two games (both wins). While Denver has lost key players to injury, Portland has seen the return from injury of two key performers. Center Jusuf Nurkic is finally back on the court and he's averaged 22.0-12.3-4.3 in three games. Also, PF Zach Collins is back, averaging 7.0 & 7.0. Portland relies heavily one one of the NBA's best backcourts, Lillard (28.8-4.4-8.0) and McCollum (22.5-4.2-4.4) but don't dismiss the contributions of Carmelo Anthony. He's been a HUGE surprise all season, averaging 15.3 & 6.3. Then there is second-year pro Gary Trent Jr, who has a career average of 7.0 PPG, but is averaging 18.0 PPG "in the bubble." Both teams have plenty to play for here but Portland is rested and the Blazers are still trying to secure a playoff berth (NOT the case with Denver). The Nuggets are 3-0 against the Blazers this season and have won NINE of the last 10 meetings but the Blazers are way more healthy and again, are playing for their postseason 'lives!' Lay the small spot. Good luck...Larry |
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08-06-20 | Reds v. Indians -113 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Battle 4 Ohio is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians entered the 2019 season having won THREE straight AL Central titles but their 93 wins left them EIGHT games back of the 101-61 Minnesota Twins. The Indians opened the current season 4-2 at home and then took the first contest of a four-game series at Minnesota on Thursday, moving to 5-2. However, the Indians then lost the last three games of their series at Minnesota, getting outscored 10-2. Cleveland lost the first contest of its four-game, home-and-home series with Cincinnati Reds 3-2 on Monday but has rebounded to win the last two, 4-2 and 2-0 (Indians are currently 7-6). The Reds entered the current season off SIX consecutive losing seasons (averaging a modest 69.7 wins per season) but Cincinnati (at +230) was listed as co-favorites to win the NL Central with the Cubs. The team's starting pitching rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani looked VERY good on paper, plus the addition of Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos was great news to Joey Votto and the Reds' offense (NL using the DH was also great news). However, the Reds were just 2-5 before winning both ends of Sunday's seven-inning doubleheader at Detroit. 5-7 Cincinnati hopes to split its four-game, "Battle 4 Ohio" with the Indians, by taking Thursday's finale Taking the mound will be Luis Castillo (0-1, 4.50 ERA) for the Reds and Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 3.75 ERA) for the Indians. Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo's only two starts in 2020 have come against the Tigers. He gave up five runs and eight hits over six innings of a 7-2 loss to the Tigers back on July 25 but then allowed just one run while striking out 11 over six innings on July 31 against Detroit (note: Reds have lost both starts). Carlos Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 on July 27, as he won his first start in 423 days! Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but days later was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, the 18-game winner in 2017 looked like his old dominant self against the Royals. He allowed two runs and five hits before he was lifted after allowing a leadoff double in the seventh. Carrasco retired the first 10 Royals he faced and finished with 10 Ks! Carrasco also pitched reasonably well last Saturday at Minnesota but allowed three solo HRs (over six innings) in a 3-0 loss. I had Minnesota in that one, backing Kenta Maeda. My closing comments in that one was that "Carrasco's comeback has everyone rooting for him but I'm not one of them in tonight's contest. I'll root for Carrasco some OTHER time!" That "other time" is tonight! Carrasco may have a less-than-impressive 4.05 ERA in five starts against the Reds but he's 3-0 and the Indians are 5-0. That follows nicely with the fact that the Indians are 20-7 vs the Reds since the start of the 2015 season! Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-20 | Brewers +121 v. White Sox | Top | 1-0 | Win | 121 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Underdog of the Month (IL) is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers opened the 2020 season with six straight road games, going 3-3. The Brewers returned home for a three-game home series with the Cardinals but positive COVID-19 tests but some Cardinals saw that series postponed. A four-game, home-and-home series with the White Sox has so far seen the Brewers lose the first two games at Miller Park, The Brewers now head to Chicago for two games. The White Sox reside in the ASL Central with Last year's champs (Twins won 101 games) and the Indians, who had won three straight AL Central titles before the team's 93 wins last season left them EIGHT games behind the Twins. The White began this season's 60-game schedule having NOT made the postseason since 2008 (just two winning seasons in that 11-year span). However, the White Sox are a MUCH better team this season and have opened 7-4. Adrian Houser (0-0, 1.80 ERA) will take the mound for Milwaukee and Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 3.38 ERA) is set to get the ball for Chicago. Houser made 35 appearances last season but just 18 starts (6-7, 3.72 ERA overall). He hopes (expects) to be part of this year's starting rotation and he looked good in his 2020 debut, allowing just one ER at Pittsburgh on July 27, settling for a no-decision that the Brewers won 6-5 (11 inn). Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young award in the AL during the 2015 season (20-8, 2.48 ERA) but over the next three seasons was a modest 35-28 (3.99 ERA) for an outstanding Houston team. He was a free agent in 2019 but couldn't find a taker until Atlanta signed him on June 7, 2019 him to a one year $13 million deal. Was he worth it? You make the call! He went 8-8 with a 3,75 ERA in 19 regular season starts (team was 10-9). Atlanta then lost BOTH of his postseason starts. The Chicago White Sox signed Keuchel to a three-year $55.5 million contract on December 30, 2019. He's opened 2-0 (3,38 ERA) but I just don't buy Keuchel being a "team ace" these days. As for his record against the Brewers, he's 0-4 record with a 8.75 ERA in five career starts against them (teams are 1-4). The Brewers have not started well but entered this season having averaged 90.3 wins per season the last three years, making the postseason in each of the last two. Remember, while Chicago is improved, the White Sox have just TWO winning seasons (no playoff appearances) in their last 11 years. Also note that Chicago has gone exactly 6-14 in each of the last three seasons in IL play. Houser scattered one run and two hits in 4.2 innings in a 77-pitch exhibition tune-up two days before Opening Day at Guaranteed Rate Field (July 22). That's a good omen and I'm taking the underdog Brewers. Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-20 | Blue Jays +124 v. Braves | Top | 2-1 | Win | 124 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 11:00 ET Wednesday morning. |