Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-21 | Hawaii v. UC-Davis -1 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on UC-Davis at 7:00 ET. The class of the Big West this season is clearly UC-Santa Barbara, which is 1-4 overall, including 11-3 in league play. The Big West tourney will be played Mar 9-13 in Las Vegas but first there's the final weekend of regular season play. The 10-8 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (8-8 in Big West) and the 8-6 UC Davis Aggies (5-3 Big West) meet Friday at the Pavilion in Davis, Ca. Eran Ganot's Hawaii team is led by two returning players and two transfers. Guard Webster (12.4 & 3.4) and the 6-7 Jardine (11.6 & 5.6) are the top returning players but also note that the 7-0 Colina is averaging 6.0 & 5.4 at center (off the bench), after averaging 1.6 & 1.6 last season. The two key transfers are the 6-8 Jean-Marie (12.3 & 4.7) and guard Madut (10.9 & 4.3). Jim Les played and coached at Bradley (nine years) but is in his 10th season at UC-Davis. He won 20-plus games three times in a four-season span (2015-15 thru 2017-18) but the Aggies followed with 11-20 and 14-18 seasons the previous two years. This year's team has been greatly affected by COVID but seems to be coming together (more later). Les was a terrific guard at Bradley (MVC player of the year in 1986) and his current team has FOUR guards averaging in double digits. Manjon (15.9-29.3.4) and Pepper (14.7 & 5.1) are two of the Big West's best guards plus Squire (12.1-3.3-2.8) and Fuller (11.5 & 3.7) are no slouches. The 6-7 Koehler (11.5 & 5.5) and the 6-9 Anigwe (6.5 & 4.9) are the top frontcourt contributors. Hawaii has been hovering around .500 for most of the year and has had trouble staying on the right side of the 'Mendoza line' UC-Davis did not play from Dec 5 through Jan 24 before of COVID protocols and when the Aggies returned, they lost FOUR of five. However, UC-Davis enters this contest on a FIVE-game winning streak and gets to finish its season at home with back-to-back home games with Hawaii. A 2-0 sweep could earn the Aggies the No. 2 seed in the upcoming Big West tourney. First things FIRST. Expect UC-Davis to win this one and the pointspread means a "W" is almost a guaranteed cover! Good luck...Larry |
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03-05-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan -2 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM of the Month is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET. The 2021 Mid-American Conference men's basketball tournament is scheduled to be held at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio, from March 11-13. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, only the top EIGHT teams qualify. Two schools that will NOT be headed to Cleveland are 5-12 Eastern Michigan (2-11 in the MAC) and 5-12 Western Michigan (4-11 in the MAC). Tonight's contest will conclude the current season for both schools. The Eastern Michigan Eagles were scheduled to host the Western Michigan Broncos back on Jan 19 but that game was postponed, meaning this will be the only meeting this season between the rivals. Eastern Michigan head coach Rob Murphy is in his 10th season(two CIT appearances and one in the CBI but no NCCAA) at Ypsilanti but despite returning four starters, the Eagles will finish with the worst record of his tenure at Eastern Michigan. 6-8 senior Groce leads the team in scoring (15.3) and rebounding (6.6), while junior guard McBride (13.6) and senior guard Montero (12.5 & 5.5) give EMU a solid backcourt duo. Steve Hawkins spent 17 seasons at Kalamazoo (seven division titles / two NCAA appearances) but was let go after last season's 13-19 finish (Broncos were just 8-24 the year before). His assistant, Thomas Kelley was promoted. Kelley played at Michigan State from 1995-99 and was a part of Izzo's first Final Four team as a fifth-year senior in 1998-99. Obviously, "Season One" has NOT gone well (see above). The Bronco's top-scorer is guard White (14.3), while the 6-9 Lee (12.9 & 7.1) and the 6-8 Wright (8.5 & 5.4) are the best frontcourt players. Here's the rub. Western Michigan wraps up a very disappointing season with this home game vs Eastern Michigan but the Broncos can finish on an uptick, having won at Northern Illinois on Tuesday. The LAST thing Kelley wants in his first season is to lose at home (in the final game of the season) to rival Eastern Michigan, a team which comes in still looking for its first road win of the season. Bottom line is this. EMU was 4-4 back on Jan 14 but has lost seven games to COVID, while losing EIGHT of the nine games played in that span (win came over Northern Illinois which is 2-16, including 1-12 in the MAC). EMU is 0-8 on the road, losing by an average of 20.3 PPG (closest loss came by 11 points!). Good luck...Larry |
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03-04-21 | Austin Peay v. Eastern Kentucky -2 | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (OVC) is on Eastern Kentucky at 10:30 ET. Belmont (24-3 / 18-2 in the OVC) is the overwhelming favorite to win the OVC tourney but the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (21-6 / 15-5) could be a surprise team. The Colonels open tourney play against Austin Peay Governors (14-12 / 10-10 in the OVC) Thursday from the Ford Center (Evansville, In). The teams split their two meetings this season, with the road team coming away with the wins. The Governors are led by the 6-5 Taylor (21.7 & 11.0) and the 6-8 Peake (10.6 & 5.2) in the frontcourt. FIVE guards chip in between 5.4 and 9.6 PPG, led by Adams (9.6), Gee (9.0- am]nd Paez (8.9). The Colonels are led by 6-9 junior King (15.2 & 6.3) and freshman PG Green (15.0-3.4-5.1). Guard Lewis (11.4 & 5.1) plus the 6-7 Moreno (10.4 & 4.7) also add double digits in points. Speaking of points, Eastern Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in averaging 82.9 PPG. Austin Peay comes in on a three-game slide, while Eastern Kentucky is playing its best ball of the season, winning SIX of its last seven (scored 80-plus points in all six wins, averaging 87.0 PPG). Eastern Kentucky head coach A.W. Hamilton had a legendary career as a high school coach at Hargrove Military Academy (Google, if interested) and after going 6-12 in OVC play his first year, went 12-6 last year. This year's team is 15-5 in league play and comes in "on a roll." Talk about "heading in the right direction." Want more? At 16-8-1 ATS on the season, Eastern Kentucky is one of the more profitable teams in the country. Cha-Ching! Good luck...Larry |
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03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET. Following a long shutdown due to COVID-19, Baylor won 'ugly' against lowly Iowa State on Feb 23 and then suffered its first loss of the season on Saturday at Kansas, falling 71-58. Baylor fell to No. 3 in the new AP poll on Monday (had been No. 2 in EVERY previous poll) but on Tuesday night, the Bears (now 19-1 / 11-2 in the Big 12) looked every bit the part of a national title contender with a gritty 94-89 overtime win at No. 6 West Virginia. Oklahoma St entered the top-25 on Feb 8 at No. 23 for the first time since Feb of 2015. However, the Cowboys fell out of the next two polls, despite not losing. A new poll came out Monday and the Cowboys were ranked 17th. The Cowboys celebrated that night, beating "Bedlam" rival Oklahoma 79-75 in Stillwater (had won at Norman 94-90 in OT on Saturday. Baylor's Scott Drew took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and has made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine). Baylor lost 6-9 center Gillespie (9.6 & 9.0) from last year's team but the strength of Baylor's team this season is centered around its guards. Butler's (16.9-3.2-5.0) the best of the group but don't look past Teague (14.6 & 4.2), Mitchell (13.8 & 5.6 APG), Flagler (10.2) or Mayer (8.1) The 6-5 Vital (5.9 & 6.0) plays like a power forward and is considered one of the best defensive players in the nation. Tchatchoua is a 6-8 transfer from UNLV and he's averaged 7.3 & 5,7 plus the 6-10 Thamba adds 4.0 & 4.4. Mike Boynton took over in Stillwater when Brad Underwood left for Illinois and in his first three seasons, the Cowboys were an underwhelming 51-49. However, led by super-frosh Cade Cunningham, the Cowboys are 17-6 overall, including 10-6 in the Big 12. The 6-8 Cade Cunningham (19.5-6.3-3.5) has been as good (if not better than advertised). He's joined in the starting lineup by guards Anderson (10.3 & 4.0), Walker (8.9),and Williams (8,0) plus the 6-9 Boone (9.8 & 5.6). The 6-5 Likekele (9.8-6.9-3.7) and the 6-7 Moncrieffe (9.2 & 5.6) are big contributors off the bench. Drew's run at Baylor has been HUGELY successful and the win at West Va gave the school its first regular season title since 1950 (SWC). The Bears outscored West Virginia 13-8 in overtime while holding the Mountaineers to one made field goal. Drew couldn't wait to celebrate after the victory and jumped on 6-5 senior guard Mark Vital's back before heading to the locker room. Congrats to Baylor but returning home after its HUGE win and laying double digits to an Oklahoma St team that has won FIVE in row (THREE over ranked teams) and owns the likely No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft seems like a 'bridge too far.' Take those big points! Good luck...Larry |
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03-04-21 | Campbell +2 v. Radford | Top | 78-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout (Big South Conf Tourney) is on Campbell at 6:00 ET. Winthrop (21-1 overall / 17-1 in conference play) is expected to win the Big South Tourney but just maybe the second-seeded Radford Highlanders (12-6) or the third-seeded Campbell Fighting Camels (11-6) could pull an upset. Both schools won their tourney openers (Mar 1) and will meet for a third time this season Thursday from Dedmon Center (Radford's homecourt). Campbell had the nation's leading scorer (Chris Clemons at 30.1 PPG) but after opening 9-3, finished 15-16. Clemons is gone but the Fighting Camels enter this game on an EIGHT-game winning streak. The 6-6 Henderson (15.6 & 4.6) plus guard Whitfield (14.6) are the team's top-two point-producers but guard Thompson (8.6) plus two sophomores, the 6-7 Lusane (8.1 & 5.6) and the 6-8 Carralero (7.3 & 3.3) have been regular contributors. Radford was 21-11 last season, tying Winthrop at 15-3 for the Big South's best conference mark. However, the Highlanders lost all FIVE starters from last year's team. Radford has just ONE double digit scorer and that's PG Ali (10.2 & 3.9 APG) but in all, EIGHT players chip in between 4.6 and 10.2 PPG. The biggest contributors play in the frontcourt. That group includes the 6-8 Mangum (9.6 & 4.4), the 6-9 Djonkam (9.0 & 4.78), the 6-7 Jules (7.5 & 4.0) and the 6-7 Walker (6.9 & 7.6). There is little doubt that Radford is 'itching' for a shot at Winthrop but my bet says that is trumped by Campbell's motivation to avenge back-to-back tight home losses to Radford back on Jan 19 (97-91 in OT) and Jan 20 (67-61). What has Campbell done since those back-to-back defeats? Just win EIGHT consecutive games, holding opponents to an average of just 59.4 PPG. "Double-Revenge" gets the CA$H in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | Warriors v. Blazers +1.5 | Top | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The Golden State Warriors owned the NBA's worst record (15-50) last season, after appearing in five straight Finals (winning three titles). However, the Warriors have been one of the NBA's "surprise" teams this season, as they are currently 19-16 (No. 8 seed in the West). Portland opened a disappointing 12-10 this season but then ripped off SIX straight wins (Feb 9-18) to reach 18-10. However, a four-game slide followed, before the Blazers ended their skid with a 123-111 home win over Charlotte on Monday. Each team will be playing the first of two consecutive games to close the NBA's first half. The 19-14 Trail Blazers (current No. 6 seed) will remain home to play Sacramento on Thursday, while the 19-16 Warriors will move on to Phoenix. The Warriors visit Portland off an 'ugly' 117-91 road loss at the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Head coach Steve Kerr called the game "his club's worst effort of the season!" Golden State fell behind 41-21 after the first quarter and never made the game competitive. "There's going to be a handful of games every year that are sort of inexplicable, and this is one you don't spend too much time on," Kerr said. "You flush the toilet, and you move on." Looking for some good news, while Draymond Green sprained an ankle in the second quarter and did not return, he will play Wednesday night according to Kerr. Green plays "wherever needed," leading the team in rebounds (6.0) and assists (8.5). The trio of Curry (29.5-5.4-6.4) , Wiggins (17.1 & 4.5) and Oubre (15.5 & 5.9) have been "constants" but it's sure good news that the team's No. 1 pick from last season's (No. 2 overall pick) is finally back. The 7-1 Wiseman has averaged 11.5 & 4.8 in the last four games, VERY close to his season averages of 12.0 & 5.9). Depth has been provided by the 6-8 Paschall (10.2) plus veteran guards Bazemore (6.5 ) and Lee (6.3). The Blazers have endured the past 20 games without CJ McCollum (26.7-3.9-5.0), whose fractured foot will be re-evaluated this week. Lillard (29.6-4.3-8.1), as usual. leads the way but he was held to a modest 23 points in the win over Charlotte. However, Carmelo Anthony (13.6) turned back the clock with six 3-pointers and 29 points off the bench, while PF. Robert Covington (7.7 & 6.5) added 21 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks) plus Gary Trent Jr. 17 points came up big. Trent is averaging 15.5 PPG on the season and has done an excellent job of mitigating the loss of McCollum. The same can be said of center Enes Kanter, who is averaging 11.6 & 11.5 on the season, helping ease the loss of starting center Nurkic (9.8 & 7.7), who hasn't played since Jan 14. These teams split one-sided games in an NBA-style doubleheader early in the season in San Francisco. Damian Lillard led a three-point assault with 6-for-10 accuracy from beyond the arc in a 123-98 Trail Blazers win on Jan 1, while the Warriors rebounded with a 137-122 triumph two nights later behind Stephen Curry's 62 points. The victor tonight becomes a '20-game winner' and I'm betting Curry 'under' 62 points and taking the Blazers in the game. After all, Portland was a road favorite in both of those early January games in San Francisco but is now a small home dog?? Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | Abilene Christian v. Stephen F Austin | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Under the Radar Rout is on SF Austin at 9:00 ET. The Abilene Christian Wildcats and Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks meet Wednesday in Southland Conference action at the William R. Johnson Coliseum in Nacogdoches, Tx. It's a logjam atop the Southland with Nicholls St at 13-2 and Sam Houston St at 12-2 plus SF Austin and Abilene Christian both at 11-2. Joe Golding is in his 10th season at Abilene Christian and his 2017-18 team went 27-7 for his lone NCAA appearance. Kyle Keller was hired as the head coach at Stephen F. Austin, replacing Brad Underwood. Following the discovery of an administrative error in declaring student-athletes eligible, on May 20, 2020, Stephen F. Austin reached an agreement with the NCAA to vacate hundreds of wins across multiple sports from 2013 to 2019, including all 117 men's basketball wins from the 2014–15 to 2018–19 seasons. With that behind the program, the Lumberjacks finished the 2019–20 season with a 28–3 (19–1 Southland) record and the regular season Southland title. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Southland and NCAA tournaments were canceled. Abilene Christian lost All-Southland guard Ricks (14.3) from last season's team and this year's team is led by a trio of double digit scorers. 7-0 center Kohl leads in scoring (12.1), while the 6-8 Pleasant leads in rebounding (5.5 per game) and adds 11.0 PPG. Guard Mason (10.6) is the third double digit scorer for a team that relies more on defense, as the Wildcats allow 60.9 PPG (9th) on 40.1% shooting (27th). Keller has put together another strong season at SF Austin and SIX players are averaging 20-plus minutes. FOUR seniors average in double digits, led by the 6-7 Kensmil (15.7 & 7.3) plus guards Johnson (15.5 & 4,3), Ware (13.8) and Kachelries (11.0 & 4.5 APG). 6-7 sophomore Soloman (8.0 &n4.8) and junior guard Hawkins (6.8) round out the main contributors. Abilene Christian DOMINATED in its home win (Jan 27) over S.F. Austin, 82-62! Holding the Lumberjacks to just 62 points was an impressive accomplishment, as SF Austin is averaging 82.2 PPG (13th) on 52.6% shooting (2nd) on the season. S.F. Austin is not only playing with revenge but did I mention that the Lumberjacks are 26-1 SU at home since the start of last season! Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | UCLA v. Oregon -4 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. It's the final week of the Pac 12's regular season and UCLA is trying to hang on and win the conference's regular-season title. UCLA is 17-6 overall with it's 13-4 Pac-12 record leaving the Bruins barely ahead of the 12-4 Oregon Ducks and the 13-5 USC Trojans. As fate would have it, UCLA plays at Oregon tonight and then will host the Trojans Saturday night at Pauley Pavilion. This storied UCLA program hasn't won a Pac 12 conference title since the 2012-13 season. The 17-5 Ducks have won EIGHT of their last nine games to close in on UCLA. This will be the first meeting between the Bruins and Ducks this season, although they have been scheduled to play on four previous dates, all postponed because of coronavirus concerns. Mick Cronin made NINE consecutive NCAA Tourney appearances at Cincy, as his Bearcats posted a 235-78 (.751) record in that span. He moved to Westwood last season and his Bruins got better as the year progressed and were playing their best ball when the season was shut down. UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. More recently, the 6-10 Jalen Hill (6.1 & 5.5) has not played since Feb 6 (personal reasons). However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging between 9.4 and 14.6 PPG. PG Campbell (10.8 & 5.6 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Zuzang (14.6 & 4.4), the 6-6 Jaquez (11.6 & 6.1) and the 6-6 Bernard (9.4 & 4,6). Without Hill, it's just the 6-9 Riley (10.3 & 5.3) up front. Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He's now in his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon has played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). The Ducks have won EIGHT of nine and have a chance to win the regular season title with two wins (close at Oregon St on Saturday). The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers is averaging 17.0 & 5.4. The 6-6 Figueroa transferred from St John's and adds 11.6 & 6.6 and the 6-6 Eric Williams (10.7 & 6.3) transferred from Duquesne. That trio gives Oregon a strong frontcourt, even with 6-11 center N'Faly Dante (8.2 & 5.8) suffering a torn ACL in mid-December (out for the season). 6-8 guard Duarte (17.4 & 4.9) is now joined in the backcourt by PG Will Richardson, who is back from a left thumb injury suffered in the preseason. He's averaging 9.5 PPG in 10 games. Both Cronin and Altman are proven winners but I'm siding with the homestanding Ducks. "It's just great to be in this position," Oregon's Altman said. "Through the two pauses (due to COVID-19 protocols earlier this year) and a couple bad losses at home, for them to be resilient and fight back like they have -- they didn't get down. They came back and did a tremendous job. So I want them to have fun; I want them to enjoy this week." I think Oregon will win here handily, especially since the Bruins have gone just 2-9 ATS (that's an 82% "go-against") since mid-January. Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Revenge Game of the Year is on Villanova at 8:30 ET. Creighton, Villanova and Seton Hall finished in a three-way tie for first place in the Big East last season. As the 2020-21 Big East regular season comes to a close this week, Seton Hall is far back at 10-7, with No. 10 Villanova at 10-3 and No. 14 Creighton at 13-5. Here's the rub. With teams playing an uneven amount of games, the Bluejays would capture the Big East regular season title over the Wildcats with a win here (have already beaten Villanova 86-70 back in Creighton on Feb 13) and a home win over Butler on Saturday. Both schools are coming off losses with Creighton losing 77-69 at Xavier on Saturday and Villanova losing 73-61 at Butler on Sunday. Creighton was ranked No. 11 in the AP's preseason poll (the highest in school history). Greg McDermott is now in his 11th season at Creighton and after tying for the Big East title last season and finishing 24-7, Creighton was picked to finish second behind Villanova in a preseason poll. Well here the Blue Jays are! Creighton owns an excellent guard trio in PG Zegarowski (14.9-3.9-4.6) plus Mahoney (13.9 & 4.5) and Ballock (10.5). 6-5 SF Jefferson (12.3 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Bishop (11.5 & 5.9) get help up front from 7-0 freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner (6.7 & 3.9). Villanova's Jay Wright lost Saddiq Bey (16.1 & 4.7) to the NBA (was a first-round NBA draft pick) but four double digit scorers from last year's team returned. Villanova's preseason ranking of No. 3 was its highest since the 1995-96 season. Villanova is considered one of the most dangerous teams in the country for many reasons but offensive balance is at the top of the list. All FIVE starters average in double digits. The 6-9 Robinson-Earl (15.5 & 7.9) leads in scoring and rebounding and is joined up front by the 6-7 Samuels (11.1 & 6.3). That duo is joined in the starting lineup by a trio of double-digit scoring guards, PG Gillespie (14.4 & 4.7 APG), Moore (12.8 & 4.4) and Daniels (10.6). The 6-9 Swider comes off the bench to add 6.2 & 3.3. 'Nova can clinch the Big East regular season crown with a win here AND maybe a No. 2 seed in the "Big Dance," so motivation is hardly an issue. Obviously, Villanova will remember its 16-point loss at Creighton plus the Wildcats can't possibly forget Sunday's HUGELY disappointing loss Sunday at Butler. Villanova shot 2 of 27 on three-pointers, with 14 straight misses to end the game! This is a "big time" game and in the end, it's Villanova which will make the deciding plays. Good luck...Larry |
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03-03-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse -2.5 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Happy Hour "Best Bet" is on Syracuse at 5:00 ET. Clemson was 9-1 and ranked 12th when it welcomed Virginia to Littlejohn Coliseum back on Jan 16. The Tigers were coming off an extended pause due to a positive COVID-19 test and subsequent contact tracing. The 11-day break clearly did not turn out well, as UVa routed Clemson 85-50. That was the first of three straight losses in which the Tigers averaged 58.7 PPG! However, the Tigers have rebounded by winning SIX of seven including FIVE in a row. 15-5 Clemson (9-5 in the ACC) travels to the Carrier Dome to take on a Syracuse team that has won four of six to reach 14-8 (8-7 in the ACC) but more notably, is 12-1 at home! Clemson head coach Brad Brownell is in his 11th season with the Tigers and his team is poised to make the NCAA tourney for just the THIRD time this season. Clemson returned four starters from last season's team plus Fordham transfer Nick Honor became eligible. The Tigers are led by 6-8 senior forward Simms (13.6 & 6.2). He's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-8 Tyson (6.3 & 4.7) plus guards Honor (9.1), Trapp (7.0 & 5.6) and Hemenway (4.6). Dawes (8.5) and Newman (4.3) come off the bench in the backcourt and the 6-10 Baehre (4.5 & 4.4) in the frontcourt. ,p> Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim knows all about appearing in the "Big Dance" but his team's at-large resume this season still needs some help. Syracuse has a solid starting-five, with only guard Richmond (6.9-3.1-3.3) contributing off the bench. The Orange own a strong starting frontline in SF Griffin (15.0 & 6.5), the 6-7 Guerrier (14.8 & 9.0) and the 6-10 Dolezag (10.7 & 5.2). SG Buddy Boeheim scored 26 points in Saturday's win over the Tar Heels and now leads the team in scoring (15.9) and is paired in the backcourt by PG Girard (9.7 & 3.1 APG). Both teams come in playing well and this late-season showdown has plenty of postseason repercussions. Syracuse can't help but remember suffering a 17-point loss at Clemson back on Feb 6 and the Orange will celebrate "Senior Night" on Wednesday. Syracuse has more 'firepower' than Clemson and a look back at that Clemson win at home on Feb 6 and we find that the Tigers shot 52.9% from the floor, 10 points HIGHER than the team's season FG percentage of 42.5. Syracuse gets a MUCH-needed win! Good luck...Larry |
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03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 10:05 ET. The Suns went 8-0 SU and ATS in the Orlando 'bubble' but still couldn't sneak into the playoffs. In the offseason, Phoenix acquired longtime All Star PG Chris Paul in an effort to break its 10-year playoff drought. The Suns opened 6-2 but were just 8-8 on Jan 27. However, the Suns visit Staples Center tonight at 22-11, having won 14 of their last 17 games. The Suns currently own the West No. 4 seed just a half-game back of the 24-12 Clippers and ONE game back of tonight's opponent, the 24-11 Lakers. The Lakers won their SEVENTH straight game on Feb 12 and at 21-6, only the 21-5 Utah Jazz owned a better record in the NBA. However, the Lakers then fell into their worst slump of the season (FOUR straight losses and five of six), before winning home games over the Blazers (Fri) and Warriors (Sun) to reach 24-11. The two Pacific Division rivals are meeting for the first time this season tonight. Devin Booker is a major reason the Suns are among the top teams in the Western, coming off scoring a season-high 43 points in the Suns' 118-99 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday. He has topped 30 points in THREE of his last four and is now averaging 25.5 PPG (has averaged 26.6 PPG each of the last two seasons). Chris Paul (16.4-4.7-6.0) has everything the Suns had hoped for and center Ayton (14.5 & 11.6) has stayed healthy (he has not missed a SINGLE game!) with 19 double-doubles on the season. Head coach Monty Williams moved Frank Kaminsky (7.3 & 3.8) into the starting lineup back on Feb 7 and the Suns are 11-2 (Kaminsky has started 11 of those 13 with Phoenix going 10-1). |
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03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Game of the Month (Big Ten) is on Purdue at 9:00 ET. Wisconsin has had a terrific basketball program for decades and Greg Gard is in his sixth season at Madison, having had FOUR 20-win seasons in his first five. The Badgers were 13-4 (7-3 Big Ten) in late January but are just 3-5 since, falling to 16-9 overall and 10-8 in the Big Ten. Wisconsin opened No. 7 in the preseason poll but was ranked 25th in Monday's latest poll (not sure why the Badgers are still ranked?). In contrast, Purdue's Matt Painter (in his 16th season with the Boilermakers) saw his team go just 16-14 last season, coming off a four-year run of averaging 27.3 wins per season. The Boilermaker's opened a modest 7-5 this season but Purdue has won NINE of its last 12 games. Purdue is now 16-8 (11-6 in the Big Ten) and is back in the top-25 as of Monday at No. 23. Wisconsin is coming off a 74-69 loss at home to now-No. 4 Illinois on Saturday, even though the Fighting Illini were playing without star guard Ayo Dosunmu. Wisconsin starts FIVE seniors, guards Trice (14.1-3.5-9) and Davison (8.8 & 3.5) plus the 6-10 Potter (12.5 & 6.2), the 6-11 Reuvers (8.6 & 3.4) and the 6-8 Ford (8.6 & 4.2). 6-5 freshman Davis (7.1 & 4.4) and 6-9 sophomore Wahl (5.3 & 4.2) both contribute off the bench The 6-10 Williams leads Purdue in scoring (15.8) and rebounding (9.0). He's supported by a well-balanced group of FIVE others who chip in between 8.0 and 10.0 PPG. The group includes guards Stefanovic (10.0), Hunter (9.8), Ivey (9.3 & 3.6) and Newman (8.8 & 3.5), plus the 7-3 Edey (8.0 & 4.3). 6-6 freshman Gillis is chipping in 5.4 & 4.0 off the bench. Both teams play excellent D, as Wisconsin allows 63.2 PPG and Purdue 65.7. However, while the Badgers' season is 'crumbling,' the Boilermakers are making a credible run at gaining a No. 4 seed in next month's NCAA Tournament. Purdue is 9-1 SU at home this season, with that LONE loss coming against now-No. 2 Michigan. The Boilermakers are being really UNDERVALUED with this pointspread! Good luck...Larry |
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03-02-21 | Duke v. Georgia Tech -1.5 | Top | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Ga Tech at 8:00 ET. Duke had a season-best four-game winning streak halted in Saturday night's 80-73 overtime home loss to Louisville and will head to Atlanta at 11-9 overall, including 9-7 in the ACC to take on Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are on a four-game winning streak for the second time this season and welcome the Blue Devils to McCamish Pavilion at 13-8 (9-6 in the ACC) after Saturday's 84-77 home win over Syracuse. Duke opened No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but the team's Jan 12 loss at Va Tech saw 5-3 Duke (3-1 in the ACC) fall out of the AP poll. The Blue Devils haven't been back but as noted, were on a four-game winning streak before Saturday's loss .Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA, the 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) is with the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) is with the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guards Stewart (13.1 & 4.0) and Roach (9.3) have played well but 6-9 freshman Johnson (11.9 & 6.5) has left the team to prepare for the NBA. However, Duked was on a FOUR-game run without him. 6-9 sophomore Hurt leads the team in scoring (19.3) and rebounding (6.3), while sophomore SF Moore (9.4 & 4.6) and senior guard Goldwire (6.0-3.1-3.9) are solid contributors. The 7-0 Williams (4.7 & 3.8) and the 6-8 Brakefield (4.1 & 2.8) only average about 12 MPG but have helped at times. Ga Tech lacks depth but has a solid five-man rotation. Returning PG Alvarado (16.0-3.5-4.2) and SG Devoe (14.7-4.3-3.2) have been excellent plus returning 6-9 big man Wright leads in scoring (17.5) and rebounding (8.0). 6-7 USC transfer Usher (10.9 & 4.2) helps out up front plus VMI transfer Parham (7.3) adds to the team's backcourt depth. The 6-7 Moore (4.6 & 3.0 is the lone reserve making any real contributions. Ga Tech head coach Josh Pastner is in his fifth season with the Yellow Jackets, after SEVEN years at Memphis. His first four seasons have not gone well (just 65-67) and the Yellow Jackets opened this season 0-2, losing home games to Ga State and Mercer. However, the Yellow Jackets are 13-6 since and at 9-6 in conference play, are three games above .500 in ACC play for the first time in 25 years (March 3, 1996)!! "We've now learned how to win," Pastner said. The Yellow Jackets have clinched a winning record in ACC regular-season play in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1989 and 1990."That's 30 years," Pastner added. "That's a great accomplishment for this program, for this team." Georgia Tech has won 13 of its last 14 conference home games, including a 7-1 record this year. Could Ga Tech go 'dancing' this season while Duke 'stays home?' VERY possible. Good luck...Larry |
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03-01-21 | Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on Oklahoma at 9:00 ET. Oklahoma's Lon Kruger came to Norman for the 2011-12 season, after leading Kansas St, Florida, Illinois and UNLV to NCAA appearances. The Sooners made the "Big Dance" in SIX of his first eight seasons before last year's team went 19-12 before the shut down. Oklahoma was unranked in the preseason but cracked the top-25 (at No. 24) on Feb 24. Then, on Feb 1, the Sooners jumped all the way to No. 9, as Oklahoma beat FOUR ranked teams during the month of January. Oklahoma was No. 7 in the most recent poll (Feb 22) but lost this past week 62-57 at Kansas St (just 7-19 / 3-14 in the Big 12) and then 94-90 (OT) at home to Oklahoma St. Mike Boynton took over in Stillwater when Brad Underwood left for Illinois and in his first three seasons, the Cowboys were an underwhelming 51-49. However, led by super-frosh Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma entered the top-25 on Feb 8 at No. 23 for the first time since Feb of 2015. For some reason, Okla St fell out of the last two polls, despite not losing. A new poll comes out this afternoon and the Cowboys will SURELY re-enter the top-25, while the Sooners will drop significantly after an 0-2 week. That's the setting for these two "Bedlam" rivals to play for the second time in three days, this time in Stillwater. Oklahoma's top scorer from last season is gone (forward Doolittle averaged 15.8 & 8.9). Starting guards Reaves (17.5-5.6-5.1), Harmon (13.0) and Gibson (10.4) average in double digits, while Harkless (7.2 & 4.9) and Williams (6.6 & 3.0) add depth in the backcourt off the bench. The 6-9 Manek (9.9 & 4.9) and 6-7 Hill (4.6 & 3.3) start up front with the 6-10 Kuath (6.1 & 4.5) coming off the bench. Likely "one-and-done" 6-8 standout Cade Cunningham (19.8-6.3-3.5) has been as good (if not better than advertised). He's joined in the starting lineup by guards Anderson (10.2 & 4.1), Walker (9.0),and Williams (7.7) plus the 6-9 Boone (9.5 & 5.4). The 6-5 Likekele (9.8-6.9-3.7) and the 6-7 Moncrieffe (9.2 & 6.7) are big contributors off the bench. Cunningham was "unstoppable" Saturday in Norman (a career-high 40 points with 11 rebounds) and will now look lead OSU to a sweep of the season series over OU. The winner will bolster its NCAA Tournament resume plus the game also has plenty of repercussions in the Big 12 (teams are tied for fourth place in the conference). The two rivals have not played in back-to-back games since 1943 and I'm "all over" Oklahoma in this "payback" situation. "Boomer Sooner!" Good luck...Larry |
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03-01-21 | North Carolina v. Syracuse +2.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Syracuse at 7:00 ET. North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll. However for most of this season, the Tar Heels have NOT lived up to their preseason ranking. That said, just maybe North Carolina has "turned a corner?" The Tar Heels' 78-70 Saturday over No. 11 Florida State was their first victory against a nationally ranked team since November 2019, snapping a 10-game losing streak against ranked opponents. 15-5 North Carolina (9-5 in ACC play) will play its final road game of the season tonight in Syracuse. Jim Boeheim's team is 13-8 (7-7 in ACC play, after losing 84-77 loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Last year's super frosh Anthony lost time to injury last season (played 22 games) but averaged 18.5-5.7-4.0 for the Tar Heels but as expected was a "One and Done!" Also gone is senior guard Robinson and his 11.8 PPG for North Carolina. However, North Carolina's strength is its depth. EIGHT players are making contributions. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (11.2 & 7.4), the 6-10 Brooks (10.4 & 7.0) and the 6-11 Sharpe (10.0 & 8.0), while the backcourt goes five-deep. The group includes Love (10.1 & 3.7 APG), Davis (8.1), Walton (8.1), Black (5.8 & 5.3) and Platek (4.2). In contrast, Syracuse has a solid starting-five, with only guard Richmaond (6.9-3.1-3.0) contributing off the bench. The Orange own a strong starting frontline in SF Griffin (15.5 & 6.6), the 6-7 Guerrier (14.7 & 9.1) and the 6-10 Dolezag (10.8 & 5.2). SG Buddy Boeheim (15.3 PPG) is joined in the backcourt by PG Girard (10.0 & 3.3 APG). Saturday's win over FSU was notable in that it was the first time in UNC history that all four players to score in double figures in a game were freshmen. The group consisted of Walker Kessler (20 points), Kerwin Walton (13), R.J. Davis (12) and Caleb Love (12). I noted all but Kessler above and that's because even after his 'Herculean' effort vs the Seminoles (9 of 10 from the floor with 8 rebounds and 4 blocks) the 7-1 Kessler is averaging just 4.1 & 2.8 on the season. I 'smell' a let-down spot here for the Tar Heels and while Syracuse fell to 2-7 on the road after Saturday's loss, the Orange are 11-1 SU at home. What's more, Saturday's loss followed a Monday loss at Duke and Syracuse has yet to lose THREE in a row this season. Why start here? Take whatever points you can get with Syracuse, which hung with the Tar Heels all game back in January at Chapel Hill (lost by six). Good luck...Larry |
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02-28-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -4 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (Pacific) is on the LA Lakers at 8:05 ET. All are familiar with the "fall from grace" of the Warriors, going from FIVE straight appearances in the NBA finals (three titles) to the NBA's worst record (15-50) in last year's pandemic-shortened season. However, the Warriors have won SEVEN of 10 and at 19-15, 4 1/2-games inside the playoff cutline (10 teams make this year's postseason). The Los Angeles Lakers won their SEVENTH straight game on Feb 12 and at 21-6, only the 21-5 Utah Jazz owned a better record in the NBA. However, the Lakers were buried in their worst slump of the season (FOUR straight losses and five of six) when they hosted the visiting Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. LA got off the schneid with a 102-93 victory. Curry (29.9-5.5-6.3), Wiggins (17.5 & 4.6) and Oubre (15.5 & 6.0) have led the way for the Warriors this season. However, the recent "big news" was that the team's No. 1 pick (2nd overall of the 2020 draft), James Wiseman (12.3 & 5.8), has returned (11-game absence caused by a sprained wrist). He's played in three straight (all off the bench), averaging 13.7 & 3.7 in about 17 minutes per game. it may NOT be a coincidence that the Warriors are 3-0 SU & ATS in that span. Joining Curry, Wiggins and Oubre in the starting lineup are center Looney (just returned as well and is splitting time with Wiseman) and Green (5.7-6.1-8.7), who with the return of Wiseman and Looney, is back to his natural position of PF. A.D. (22.5 & 8.4) is sidelined with an Achilles problem (earliest return is right after the All Star break) and LA has gone just 2-5 since he was hurt at Denver back on Feb 15. Of course, LBJ hasn't missed a SINGLE game (35 minutes per), averaging 25.7-8.2-7.9. I had a HUGE play on LA in Friday's game and noted that PG Schroder had been held out the previous four games due to COVID-19 protocols (he tested negative but was held out due to contact tracing) but was available to return on Friday. Simply put, the Lakers aren't the same club without Dennis Schroder (14.4-3.6-4.2) in the lineup (had gone 0-4 SU & ATS in his absence). Schroder made his presence felt on both ends of the court in Friday's game. He scored 22 points and helped slow Portland's Damian Lillard, who managed 11 points in the second half after scoring 24 in the first. With A.D. sidelined, PF Harrell (13.9 & 6.5) and SF Kuzma (11.1 & 6.4) will see more "PT" plus LA has a deep backcourt in Caldwell-Pope (8.8), Horton-Tucker (6.7), Caruso (5.5) and Matthews (4.7). I said in taking LA on Friday that I expected a "Big push" from them heading in the All Star break and while I won't project on Tuesday's home with the Suns or Wednesday's road game at Sacramento (LA's final game before the break), I will play the Lakers here. The Warriors returned from FOUR games in six days on a road trip to beat the Hornets in San Francisco on Friday but now it's right back on the road for THREE in a row prior to the break. The Lakers are up first and PRIMED to avenge a 115-113 loss to Golden St here at Staples back on Jan 18, when the Warriors rallied from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to edge LA. In that game, LA was favored by 8 1/2-points but here, it's HALF that! Good luck...Larry |
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02-28-21 | Quinnipiac v. Marist -2.5 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (MAAC) is on Marist at 4:00 ET. The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Marist Red Foxes meet Sunday in college basketball action at the McCann Arena and again tomorrow night, wrapping up regular season MAAC play for the two teams. The Bobcats are 8-9 overall (6-7 MAAC) and the Red Foxes are 10-8 (8-8 MAAC). Quinnipiac had lost SEVEN of nine but comes in on a three-game winning streak, Meanwhile, after a 6-1 start, Marist has lost SEVEN of 11. Quinnipiac's head coach Baker Dunleavy (yes, Mike Dunleavy's son) was an assistant under Jay Wright at Villanova and is in his fourth season at Quinnipiac with modest results (51-40). Dunleavy lost his two best players from last season in PG Kelly (16.7 & 4.5 APG) and the 6-8 Marfo (10.2 & 13.3). This season's team relies on balance, with SEVEN players getting 21-plus minutes of "PT." The 6-6 Rigoni leads in scoring (12.6) and rebounding (6.7) and is joined up front by the 7-1 Pinkney (8.5 & 5.1). FIVE guards add between 6.9 and 10.8 PPG, led by Chenery (10.8 & 4.0), Kortright (9.5-4.2-3.7) and Lewis (8.5-4.2-3.3). John Dunne spent 10 seasons at St Peter's (overall 153-225 record) and was just 19-42 in his first two seasons with Marist. However, despite losing senior guard Cubbage (11.0 PPG) after just four games, this year's team has played better. FIVE players have participated in all 18 games Starting guards Wright (10.9 & 3.4) and Byrd (8.2) are supported by Sullivan's 9.6 PPG and 3.2 APG off the bench. The 6-8 Jones (9.4 & 5.2) and the 6-7 Bell (7.6 & 4.5) are the team's top frontcourt players. Marist 'plays slow' and that's part of why the Red Foxes are allowing just 62.9 PPG (36th). However, give them credit for holding opponents to 40.1% shooting (30th). There is little difference between these two teams but in this pandemic-interrupted season, Quinnipiac has played just two games away from home (4 road / two neutral), winning just ONCE, while losing five by an average of 11.2 points! Looking back a little further and you'll find that the Bobcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games! Why take a 'FG' or less? NOT me. Marist is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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02-28-21 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +4.5 | Top | 80-74 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Cincinnati at 1:00 ET. Penny Hardaway was known for his offense as a player but as head coach at his alma Mater, defense has been 'king' at Memphis. The 13-6 Tigers are 9-3 in AAC play due to their defense, which is allowing opponents to score just 62.0 PPG (13th) on 38.4% shooting (5th), including 26.6% on threes (3rd). The Tigers are in Cincinnati on Sunday, coming off a 61-46 win at home over Tulane, a game in which Memphis held the Green Wave to 25.9 percent shooting (a season low for one of its opponents). The disappointing 9-8 Bearcats (7-5 in the AAC) seem like the "perfect foil," as they are averaging a modest 69.2 PPG on 42.7% shooting, including 29.7% on threes (323rd). However, DON'T ignore the fact that Cincy comes in having won SIX of its last seven games. Memphis lost center James Wiseman after just three games last season and PF Achiuwa (15.8 & 10.8) after the season (both are now in the NBA as 1st round picks). Va Tech transfer, the 6-7 Nolley (13.4 & 3.6), leads the Tigers in scoring. He's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-9 Williams (10.4 & 6.2), guard Quinones (9.2 & 4.8) and the 6-10 Cisse (7.0 & 7.1). Coming off the bench is the 6-7 Jefferson (9.8 & 5.5) plus guards Ellis (8.6) and Lomax (6.3-3.1-4.4). John Brannen led Northern Kentucky to a 72-30 record in his final three seasons, leading the Norse to the "Big Dance" in two of those three years. He was hired at Cincy on April 14, 2019 when Mick Cronin left for UCLA. The Bearcats went 20-10 in last year's pandemic-shortened season but opened the current season missing guards Jarron Cumberland (15.5) and Jaevin Cumberland (8.8) plus forward Tre Scott (11.4 & 10.5). Guard Keith Williams leads the Bearcats in scoring with 14.4 PPG (4.0 RPG), while fellow guards Jeremiah Davenport (11.1 & 4.8) and David DeJulius (10.0-5.1-4.6) join him in double digits. Throw in Adams-Woods (7.9) and Cincy has a very good backcourt. The problem has been up front, where 7-1 returning center Chris Vogt (5.5 & 3.8) has been a big disappointment after averaging 11.1 & 5.7 last season. The 6-10 6-10 Ivanauskas (6.3 & 5.0) played just seven games (out for the season), leaving the 6-7 Eason (7.6 & 5.7) as the team's best frontcourt player. However, as noted above, the Bearcats have won SIX of seven with their lone loss in that span coming at No. 12 Houston. Cincinnati shook off that 90-52 drubbing at Houston (Feb 21) by winning back-to-back games against Tulsa (71-69) and Tulane (91-71) this past week. The Bearcats enjoyed a rare blowout victory over the Green Wave, after FIVE of their first six conference victories were decided by three points or less. Brannen's an excellent coach and his team is MORE than capable of winning or at least taking this game to the wire. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Baylor v. Kansas +5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Kansas at 8:00 ET. Baylor carries an 18-0 record (10-0 in the Big 12) into Saturday's matchup against No. 17 Kansas (17-8 / 11-6 Big 12) in Lawrence. Baylor has been No. 2 to 23-0 Gonzaga in EACH weekly AP poll but unlike the Bulldogs (11-10-2 ATS), the Bears are 13-5 ATS. However, the Bears ended a three-week stoppage created by developments related to COVID-19 as well as inclement weather in Texas on Feb 23 and barely escaped (at home!) against last-place Iowa St . Baylor overcame a 17-point deficit to win 77-72 (obviously, not an ATS win!). Bill Self's Kansas team was ranked No. 1 in the final AP poll after last season's shutdown. Despite losing key players like PG Dotson (18.1-4.1-4.0) and the 6-10 Azubuike (13.7 & 10.5) this year's team opened No. 6 in the preseason poll. Kansas lost its season-opener to No. 1 Gonzaga (Gonzaga has yet to lose) but heading into its Jan 12 game at Oklahoma St, the Jayhawks were 10-2 and still ranked No. 6. However, Kansas lost FIVE of its next seven and on Feb 8, fell out of the top-25 to see its 231-week run as an AP top-25 team end. That said, I guess we shouldn't be shocked that the Jayhawks (with their history) had won FIVE in a row before losing to Texas earlier this week. Kansas is now 17-7 overall record (back in the AP-25 at No. 17), including 11-6 in the Big 12. Baylor's Scott Drew took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and has made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine). Baylor lost 6-9 center Gillespie (9.6 & 9.0) from last year's team but the strength of Baylor's team this season is centered around its guards. Butler's (17.1-3.3-5.1) the best of the group but don't look past Teague (14.7 & 4.0), Mitchell (13.4 & 5.7 APG), Flagler (10.9). or Mayer (7.9 & 3.8) The 6-5 Vital (5.7 & 5.9) plays like a power forward and is considered one of the best defensive players in the nation. Tchatchoua is a 6-8 transfer from UNLV and he's averaged 7.8 & 6.4. Kansas has FIVE players averaging 10-plus PPG. Guard Aybaji (13.8 & 3.5) leads the way, followed by the 6-10 McCormack (13.0 & 6.0) and the 6-7 Wilson (12.8 & 8.2 up front, plus guards Braun (10.3 & 5.1) and Garrett (10.0-4.43.7), who is considered the team's best perimeter defender. Balance has contributed to Kansas placing five scorers in double figures in each of its last two games and six times this season, as Self whittles his rotation. Baylor remains perfect but the Bears were clearly "off their game" vs Iowa St after a long break (see above). Although Baylor will not come close to completing its conference schedule, it needs to win just one of its last four games to clinch its first Big 12 regular-season championship. The team's 18-0 start is its best in school history (began the 2011-12 campaign with 17 straight wins) and with a win here in Lawrence, Baylor can join Texas, a 75-72 overtime winner over Kansas on Tuesday, as teams to sweep the Jayhawks this season in a Big 12 home-and-home series. Note that only ONE conference rival had managed a season sweep in Bill Self's previous 17 seasons coaching Kansas. Baylor was never able to shake Kansas back in Waco on Jan 18 (8-point win), so I see no reason to NOT think that the Jayhawks take this game right to the wire here in Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas becomes the first Big 12 team to complete a full, regular season schedule of 18 games and why not celebrate with a B-A-N-G! Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Louisville v. Duke -5 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on Duke at 6:00 ET. Chris Mack took over at Xavier for the 2009-10 season when Sean Miller took the Arizona job. He led the Musketeers to eight NCAA tourneys in nine seasons before moving to Louisville. The Cards went 20-14 in his first season (NCAA bid) and were 24-7 in his second year, when the season was shut down in March (AP ranked them 14th in its final poll). Louisville was 11-4 (6-3 in the ACC) on Feb 1 but then didn't play again until Feb 20. The Cardinals returned from a coronavirus-related pause of nearly three weeks and got blown out 99-54 at North Carolina last Saturday. Louisville recovered by defeating Notre Dame 69-57 at home on Tuesday, despite playing without guard David Johnson because of illness. Duke opened No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but the team's Jan 12 loss at Va Tech saw 5-3 Duke (3-1 in the ACC) fall out of the AP poll. The Blue Devils haven't been back, as a three-game losing streak left them at 7-8 (5-6 in the ACC) as of Feb 9. However, FOUR straight ACC wins followed that slide )more details shortly) and the Blue Devils welcome Louisville to Cameron Indoor Stadium 11-8 (9-6 in the ACC). Louisville swingman Jordan Nwora (18.0 & 7.7) is gone from last season's Louisville team but FOUR starters returned. However, it's Carlik Jones who leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.2-5.2-4.5. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year. He's joined by returning guard Johnson (12.7-5.9-3.4) in the backcourt. The 6-7 Williamson did little last season but averages 9.7 & 7.7 this season plus 6-9 redshirt freshman Withers is adding 9.8 & 7.9. True freshman guard Davis (9.2 & 3.4) and the 6-8 Slazinski (6.2 & 3.5) round out the main contributors. Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA, the 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) is with the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) is with the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guards Stewart (13.4 & 4.1) and Roach (9.3) have played well but 6-9 freshman Johnson (11.9 & 6.5) has left the team to prepare for the NBA. One could "good Riddance," as Duke has gone on a FOUR-game run without him. 6-9 sophomore Hurt leads the team in scoring (18.3) and rebounding (6.2), while sophomore SF Moore (9.2 & 4.4) and senior guard Goldwire (6.1-3.1-3.8) are solid contributors. The 7-0 Williams (4.6 & 3.7) and the 6-8 Brakefield (4.2 & 2.9) only average about 12 MPG but have helped at times. "Over the last four games, we've emphasized defense and we've changed our ball screen defense which has helped us," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "The last three games, we've really played well on the defensive end of the court and it's made a difference in us winning and losing. We have to keep going." He's right on the money with that quote. After allowing 91 points (to UNC) and 93 (to ND) in back-to-back home games, Duke's won and covered at NC State and Wake plus at home to UVa and Syracuse. Duke has allowed just 62.3 PPG in its four-game surge and now looks to avenge a 70-65 loss at Louisville back on Jan 23, when the Blue Devils were a MUCH different team. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on North Carolina at 4:00 ET. This has NOT been a vintage year for the ACC. The NCAA began seeding the entire field for the 1979 tourney and in every year but ONE (1990), the ACC has had at least one No. 1 or No. 2 seed. The 2021 tourney could make that TWO times since sending began. Then again, Florida State has taken care of business in recent games and that has put the Seminoles back on a clear path toward repeating as the ACC regular-season champions. Florida State was 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic The 14-3 Seminoles (10-2 ACC) have risen to the top of the standings, with the help of Virginia's three-game losing streak. North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll. The Tar Heels have NOT lived up to their preseason ranking, as the Tar Heels are 14-5 on the season (only 8-5 in ACC play). FSU began the season losing three key players from last year's team. PG Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.0), SG Vassell (12.7 & 5.1) and 6-7 swingman Williams (9.7 & 4.0), who were all chosen in the NBA draft. Guard MJ Walker returns and leads with 13.1 PPG and is surrounded by a talented and DEEP group. 6-9 freshman Barnes is listed as a guard and checks in averaging 10.1-3.9-4.4) and returning guard Polite just misses double digits (9.5 & 4.9). The 6-8 Gray (11.7 & 6.9), the 7-1 Koprivica (9.3 & 5.8) and the 6-9 Osborne (5.9 & 5.0)comprise a solid frontcourt. Walker has been in and out of the lineup lately (listed as questionable for this one) but head coach Hamilton has FOUR more guards averaging about 21 PPG! Last year's super frosh Anthony lost time to injury last season (played 22 games) but averaged 18.5-5.7-4.0 for the Tar Heels but as expected was a "One and Done!" Also gone is senior guard Robinson and his 11.8 PPG for North Carolina. However, like FSU, North Carolina's strength is its depth. EIGHT players are making contributions. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (11.4 & 7.5), the 6-10 Brooks (10.7 & 7.1) and the 6-11 Sharpe (10.3 & 8.1), while the backcourt goes five-deep. The group includes Love (10.0), Davis (7.9), Walton (7.9), Black (5.8 & 5.3) and Platek (4.4). Head coach Leonard Hamilton has built a championship-caliber program in Tallahassee, one that had produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools heading into the current season. The Seminoles have reached the 10-win mark in regular-season league play for the third consecutive season but this will be their THIRD consecutive road game, while the Tar Heels are playing their FOURTH straight home game. North Carolina had won ALL eight home games before Wednesday night's 83-70 non-conference loss to Marquette (made 19 turnovers and shot 41.7% to Marquette's 51.8%)."We've had a couple of good wins and then we turn around and we think we're a lot better than we really are," Roy Williams said after the game. Great spot for a bounce back by the Tar Heels here, as the last FSU won in Chapel Hill was back in 2010. Don't call this North Carolina win an upset. Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -3.5 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Wisconsin at 2:00 ET. Illinois opened No. 8 in the preseason poll but by mid-Jan, the Fighting Illini are a modest 9-5 (5-3 in the Big Ten). However, Illinois visit Madison having won EIGHT of nine (all in the Big ten and sit 17-6 (No. 5 in the latest AP poll), including 13-4 in the Big Ten (2nd to only 12-1 Michigan). Wisconsin has had a terrific basketball program for decades and Greg Gard is in his sixth season at Madison, having had FOUR 20-win seasons in his first five. The Badgers were 13-4 (7-3 Big Ten) in late January but are just 3-4 since, falling to 16-8 overall and 10-7 in the Big Ten (6th-place). Wisconsin opened No. 7 in the preseason poll but is currently just 23rd. Illinois features one of the top guards in the nation in Dosunmu (21.0-6.3-4-5.3). However, Dosunmu suffered what the team calls a facial injury (reported to be a broken nose) on a hard foul in Tuesday's 81-72 loss at Michigan State. He sat out Thursday's 86-70 win over Nebraska in the team's final home contest. No official timetable has been set for Dosunmu's return. "I'll leave that all up to the doctors," said Illinois head coach Brad Underwood, who indicated there are additional factors regarding Dosunmu's return to the floor. 7-0 center Cockburn (17.7 & 10.0) has built on a successful freshman season and the backcourt features veterans like Frazier (10.6), Curbelo (7.7 & 4.3 APG) and Williams (5.0 & 5.4) plus freshman Miller adds 8.7 PPG. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (5.7 & 2.7) rounds out the main contributors. Wisconsin starts FIVE seniors, guards Trice (13.5-3.6-4.0) and Davison (9.3) plus the 6-10 Potter (12.4 & 6.2), the 6-8 Ford (8.8 & 4.2) and the 6-11 Reuvers (8.7 & 3.3). 6-5 freshman Davis (7.2 & 4.4) and 6-9 sophomore Wahl (5.4 & 4.2) both contribute off the bench. The Badgers are 11-4 at home but have lost three of their last four at Madison and will try to avoid losing three straight Big Ten games at home for the first time since the 2017-18 season. These schools met back on Feb 6 in Champaign, when Dosunmu became the third player in Illinois history to record a triple-double with 21 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds during the Illini's 75-60 rout of Wisconsin. The Badgers had no answer for Dosunmu in that one but he'll be on the sidelines for this one. History will be on Wisconsin's side in this one as Illinois' Feb 6 win over Wisconsin was just its SECOND in the last 17 meetings between the Big Ten rivals. Go Badgers! Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-21 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech -4 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Ga Tech at 12:00 ET. A pair of ACC teams "on the bubble" will try to strengthen their case for the NCAA Tournament on Saturday afternoon when Syracuse visits Georgia Tech in Atlanta. 13-7 Syracuse (7-6 ACC) had its three-game winning streak broken in an 85-71 loss to Duke on Monday. Meanwhile, 12-8 Georgia Tech (8-6 ACC) helped its cause on Tuesday with a 69-53 victory at No. 16 Virginia Tech, giving the Yellow Jackets' THREE straight wins. Jim Boeheim's Syracuse team has FIVE players in double digits, getting production off the bench from only guard Richmond (7.2) However, the Orange do own a very good starting-five (all are averaging 29 minutes-plus per game). SF Griffin is averaging 15.0 PPG and adds 6.7 RPG. The 6-7 Guerrier is averaging 14.8 PG plus leads in rebounding (9.3). The 6-10 Dolezag completes the frontcourt with 11.3 & 5.4. SG Buddy Boeheim has taken over as the team's leading scorer (15.5 PPG) and he's joined in the backcourt by PG Girard (10.0 & 3.3 APG). Ga Tech head coach Josh Pastner is in his fifth season with the Yellow Jackets, after SEVEN years at Memphis. His first four seasons have not gone well (just 65-67) and the Yellow Jackets opened this season 0-2, losing home games to Ga State and Mercer. However, the Yellow Jackets are 12-6 since. Much like Syracuse, Ga Tech has a solid five-man rotation but the Yellow Jackets have little depth. Returning PG Alvarado (16.6-3.7-4.1) and SG Devoe (14.6-4.3-3.1) have been excellent plus returning 6-9 big man Wright leads in scoring (16.8) and rebounding (7.6). 6-7 USC transfer Usher (10.5 & 4.1) helps out up front plus VMI transfer Parham (7.5) adds to the team's backcourt depth. "We want to make the dance," said Georgia Tech captain Jose Alvarado. "We want to go dancing." The Yellow Jackets certainly strengthened their case with Tuesday's win over the Hokies. It was their FOURTH win over a top-25 opponent this season, winning each game by double-digits and an average of 15.5 points. Georgia Tech's win at Va Tech was its first road win against a ranked team since the Yellow Jackets defeated No. 23 Miami back on Jan 28, 2015, breaking a streak of 21 straight losses! As for Syracuse, its road loss at Duke was "nothing new!" Syracuse has won on the ACC road against Boston College (3-13 / 1-9 ACC) and NC State, after it lost its best player in Daniels. In the Orange's other six road games, they've lost at Clemson, Pitt, North Carolina, UVa and Duke of the ACC plus at Rutgers (Big Ten) by an average of 15.0 PPG. Lay the modest points with Ga Tech, which enters having won NINE of its last 10 home games! Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-21 | Blazers v. Lakers -5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play is on the LA Lakers at 10:05 ET. The Los Angeles Lakers won their SEVENTH straight game on Feb 12 and at 21-6, only the 21-5 Utah Jazz owned a better record in the NBA. However, the Lakers are buried in their worst slump of the season as they enter Friday's matchup against the visiting Portland Trail Blazers. Portland won SIX in a row from Feb 9 through Feb 17 but visit Staples Center on a three-game slide, giving them an 18-13 record. Starting center Nurkic (9.8 & 7.7) was lost to a broken wrist back on Jan 14 and SG McCollum (26.7-3.9-5.0) was lost to a foot injury two days later (last played Jan 16). Lillard (29.6-4.4-8.0) is having another All Star season for Portland, while Trent (15.3) is filing in for McCollum and Kanter (11.7 & 11.4) for Nurkic. Anthony (13.4) has provided consistent scoring off the bench all season. No one is surprised that LBJ (25.6-8.1-8.0) has played EVERY game this season but since A.D. (22.5 & 8.4) was sidelined with an Achilles problem, the Lakers have lost FIVE of six. It's also important to note that PG Dennis Schroder has been held out the last four games due to COVID-19 protocols (he tested negative but was held out due to contact tracing) but he is available to return on Friday from a seven-day quarantine. Schroder (14.2-3.6-4.3) has made a big impact for LA this season, as has PF Harrell, who hasn't missed a game while averaging13.8 & 6.4 (both were acquired over the offseason). SF Kuzma (11.3 & 6.2) is getting more minutes with A.D. sidelined plus LA does own a deep backcourt in Caldwell-Pope (8.9), Horton-Tucker (6.8), Caruso (5.3) and Matthews (4.9). The Lakers are currently 22-11, just behind the 23-11 Clippers but now 4 1/2 games back of the streaking Utah Jazz (26-6) in the West. The All Star break is right around the corner, which will give LA a much needed break, This contest is the first of a three-game homestand, before the Lakers play at Sacramento (Mar 3) before the break. I expect a STRONG push here by LBJ and Co. (getting Schroder back will be HUGE) and I'm laying the points tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-21 | Pacers v. Celtics -3 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the season as one of the Eastern Conference favorites but after an 8-3 start, the Celtics have looked nothing even remotely like a contender. Boston is with four games remaining before the All-Star break, after losing EIGHT of 11 (including THREE in a row). Boston and Miami (East champs last season) are both 15-17, meaning they would meet in a 9 vs 10 Play-In game (how the mighty have fallen). The Pacers visit Boston off a 111-107 home OT loss to the Warriors, returning to the court on Wednesday after time off due to games against Houston (weather-related) and San Antonio (COVID-related) being postponed (had six days off). The Pacers have hovered around .500 all season and although they are currently 15-15, their record is good enough for the East's No. 4 seed. PG Brogdon (21.7-4.8-6.4) and PF Sabonis (21.5 & 11.7) are having excellent seasons, while center Turner (13.2 & 6.6), SF McDermott (13.1 PPG on 50.9% shooting) and guard Justin Holiday (11.3 & 4.2) round out the current starting-five. T.J. Warren (foot surgery) and Caris LeVert (kidney operation) remain sidelined. Backup PG McConnell (5.9 & 6.6 APG) plus SG Lamb are also quality contributors. Lamb's return from injury is a BIG deal. He has averaged 12.2 PPG (on 50.7% shooting) in his 17 games back since tearing his ACL last February. Jayson Tatum (25.6-6.9-4.5) and Jaylen Brown (25.4-5.5-3.9) are both All Stars and while a knee injury has limited PG Walker to just 17 games, he's still averaging 17.3-3.6-4.1). Losing Marcus Smart (13.1 & 6.1 APG) has hurt but rookie guard Pritchard (7.3) plus big men Theis (8.8 & 5.0) and Thompson (7.8 & 8.4) are solid NBA players. The Celtics and Pacers split their first two meetings this season as part of a back-to-back at Indiana in December. Tonight's game begins FOUR straight on the road for Indiana, before the Pacers wrap up the season's first-half with a home game against the Nuggets (Mar 4). Boston won't leave the TD Garden until after the All Star break (four straight at home) and head coach Brad Stevens opined, "These next four games will tell us a lot about where we can go." My bet says Boston wins here "with room to spare." Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-21 | Purdue +1 v. Penn State | Top | 73-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Purdue at 7:00 ET. Purdue's Matt Painter is in his 16th season with the Boilermakers but his team was just 16-14 last season, coming off a four-year run of averaging 27.3 wins per season. The Boilermaker's opened a modest 7-5 this season but Purdue has won EIGHT of its last 11 games. Penn St was 21-10 last season but the Nittany Lions went through some turmoil right as practices started when head coach Pat Chambers resigned in late October following an investigation into inappropriate conduct. Penn State is playing this season with interim head coach Jim Ferry and the Nittany Lions welcome Purdue to State College with an 8-12 overall record (5-11 in the Big Ten). The 6-10 Williams leads Purdue in scoring (16.0) and rebounding (9.1). He's supported by a well-balanced group of FIVE others who chip in between 8.0 and 9.8 PPG. The group includes guards Hunter (9.8 & 3.2 APG), Stefanovic (9.8), Newman (9.2) and Ivey (9.0 & 3.5) plus the 7-3 Edey (8.0 & 4.2). Penn St surely miss All-Big Ten forward Lamar Stevens (17.6 & 6.9) but the Nittany Lions have three players averaging in double figures; guards Jones (15.8) and Brockington (13.4 & 4.7) plus the 6-7 Seth Lundy (10.1 & 3.8). The 6-9 Harrar (9.0 & 8.8) plus guards Sessoms (8.3), Dreda (8.0) and Wheeler (6.1-4.3-3.5) round out the main contributors. It's true that four of Penn St's five Big Ten wins have come at home but the Nittany Lions enter having just ended a four-game losing streak by winning 86-83 at Nebraska. Is that a 'buy' sign? Hardly, as the Cornhuskers are 5-17 overall, including 1-14 in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Purdue has won EIGHT of 11 and is making a run at gaining at least a No. 4 seed in next month's NCAA Tournament. Penn St is making just 41.0% of its FG attempts (311th) and allows opponents to make 47.0% of their FG attempts (321st). Good luck...Larry |
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02-25-21 | Oregon v. Stanford -1 | Top | 71-68 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on Stanford at 9:00 ET. Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He's now in his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon has played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). Oregon is 14-5 overall (9-4 in the Pac 12). Stanford head coach Jerod Haase may be feeling some pressure, as he replaced Johnny Dawkins at Stanford, who earned the title "King of the NIT," leading the Cardinal to NIT titles in 2012 and 2015. However, no school gets much credit these days for an NIT championship. Haase is just 82-70 (.539) in his first four-plus years at Stanford without an NCAA bid and his lone NIT appearance ended in the second round. Stanford is 14-9 overall this season, including 10-7 in the Pac 12). Oregon and Stanford met back on Jan 2 in Eugene where the Ducks notched a 73-56 blowout win. NCAA Tournament positioning could be at stake Thursday when Oregon visits Stanford for a critical Pac-12 matchup. Oregon is off a 72-58 loss Monday at USC, falling behind 15-0 at the start of the game. The Ducks had won FIVE straight going into USC game but still has work to do down the stretch. The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers, the 6-6 Eric Williams who transferred from Duquesne and 6-6 Figueroa from St John's, give Oregon a strong frontcourt, even with 6-11 center N'Faly Dante (8.2 & 5.8) suffering a torn ACL in mid-December (out for the season). Omoruyi is averaging 16.8 & 5.3,17.2 PPG (adds 5.4 RPG), Williams is adding 11.2 & 6.5 and Figueroa 10.9 & 6.4. 6-8 guard Duarte (16.8 & 4.9) is now joined in the backcourt by PG Will Richardson, who is back from a left thumb injury suffered in the preseason. He's averaging 10.4-3.3-3.0 in seven games. 6-9 center Oscar da Silva leads Stanford in scoring (18.8) and rebounding (6.8) and has been a steadying presence amid a rash of injuries. He is the ONLY member of the Cardinal to play in all 23 games .6-8 forward Ziaire Williams was expected to be the star of the freshman class and is now back after missing some time, playing in each of the last four games. He's averaging 10.9 & 5.0. Two solid defensive guards returned in Davis and Wills. Both have missed time with injuries but BOTH are back. Davis is averaging 12.1-3.6-3.4 and Wills 7.7 & 3.6. Delaire, a 6-9 junior, has played 20 of 22 games and has been solid all season in averaging 12.9 & 4.0. Oregon is in the middle of an eight-game stretch spanning just 18 days due to COVID-19-related hiatuses. The Ducks played poorly at USC and take on a Stanford team seeking another quality win for its at-large resume. The Cardinal are as healthy as they've been all season and are primed to hand Oregon a second straight loss, while avenging that Jan 2 loss. Good luck...Larry |
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02-25-21 | Montana v. Idaho State +3 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Crusher (Big Sky) is on Idaho St at 9:00 ET. When Wayne Tinkle left to take the job at Oregon State University, Montana hired Travis as its head coach (May 31, 2014). DeCuire played at Montana and the PG was named All Big Sky in his junior and senior seasons. He led his alma mater to 26 wins in both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons (NCAA berths) but the Grizzlies fell to 18-13 in last year's pandemic-shortened season and Montana is just 9-12 this season (5-9 in the Big Sky). Ryan Looney spent 15 seasons as a head coach in the lower divisions (330-132, .714) and in his final season at Point Loma (2018-19) the school was the runner-up in the Division II playoffs. His first season at Idaho St went poorly (8-22 / 4-16 in the Big Sky) but the Bengals welcome Montana to Holt Arena Thursday night 12-7 (7-3 in the Big Sky). Montana has SEVEN players averaging between 7.4 and 11.7 PPG. The 6-8 Owens leads in scoring (11.7) and rebounding (5.7). He's joined up front by the 6-10 Steadman (9.9 & 5.4) and the 6-9 Bannen (8.4 & 5.3). The backcourt goes "four-deep" with Beasley (10.3), Whitney (10.0), Parker (8.3 & 4.8 APG) and Vazquez (7.4). Idaho St has seen SIX players participate in all 19 games (21-plus minutes). A trio of players average in double digits, led by guards Cook (14.6) and Ford (10.9) plus SF Parker (10.7 & 5.5). The 6-foot Ford leads the team in rebounding at 7.3 and fellow guard Smellie adds 9.2 PPG. Montana opened 0-4 but was back to 8-8 on Feb 4, before losing FOUR of five, including THREE in a row entering this contest. Idaho St also opened 0-4 but in stark contrast to Montana, has gone 12-3 since Dec 23. Not sure why Montana is the road favorite here, as the Grizzlies are 5-9 in Big Sky play while the Bengals are 7-3. I'm "all over" the home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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02-25-21 | UCLA v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 76-61 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Utah at 8:00 ET. Mick Cronin made NINE consecutive NCAA Tourney appearances at Cincy, as his Bearcats posted a 235-78 (.751) record in that span. He moved to Westwood last season and his Bruins got better as the year progressed and were playing their best ball when the season was shut down. The Bruins are 16-5 this season and at 12-3 in the Pac 12, are challenging USC (13-3) for the conference championship while on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament berth. Larry Krystkowiak led Montana to back-to-back NCAA berths in his two seasons at his alma mater and then took the Utah job to begin the 2011-12 season. He had losing seasons in his first two years but then led his team to an average of 23.4 wins per season over the next five with postseason berths in each one (3 NIT and 2 NCAA). However, the Utes opened this season off seasons of just 17 and 16 wins. Utah is just 9-10 overall so far and at 6-9, has plummeted toward the bottom of the Pac 12 standings and would need a March Madness miracle to earn an NCAA invite. UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. More recently, the 6-10 Jalen Hill (6.1 & 5.5) has not played since Feb 6 (personal reasons). However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging between 9.1 and 13.8 PPG. PG Campbell (11.1 & 5.7 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Jaquez (13.8 & 4.2), the 6-6 Juzang (11.9) and the 6-6 Bernard (9.1 & 4,6). Without Hill, it's just the 6-9 Riley (10.3 & 5.5) up front. Utah lost Both Gach to Minnesota (transfer) but returned four starters. The 6-6 Allen led the team in scoring last season and leads in scoring (17.2) and rebounding (6.3) this season. Guard Alfonso Plummer (13.0) is the only other double digit scorer. Utah really misses the 6-8 Jantunen (8.5 & 4.1), who last played on Feb 11, but the 7-0 Carlson (8.9 & 4.6) and the 6-9 Battin (6.5 & 3.7) are solid players up front. Gach liked to play PG and his leaving opened that role up to Jones (4.9 & 4.1 APG) but he now has an arm injury. Freshman Larsson (7.8) was coming off the bench but now starts. UCLA is the better team but remember, the Bruins were only able to eke out a 72-70 win over Utah at Pauley Pavilion back on New Year's Eve. The Bruins are 6-3 since Jan 16 but four of those wins have come by a combined margin of just 14 points, hence UCLA's 1-8 ATS mark in that span. Yes, a "W" will mean a cover for UCLA here but the team's overall 'shaky' play leads me to believe the Utes will get the SU win. Good luck...Larry |
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02-24-21 | Alabama v. Arkansas -1 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (SEC) is on Arkansas at 9:00 ET. Nate Oats went 96-43 in four years at Buffalo, winning 27 and 32 games in his final two seasons (won 1st round NCAA game each one) He took over at Alabama last season (16-15) but his team is 18-5 in the current season, including 13-1 in the SEC. The Crimson Tide are No. 6 in the latest AP poll (highest since being ranked No. 4 in the 2006-07 season) and their "breakthrough season" could hit another milestone this week with a chance to clinch at least a share of the conference's regular-season title for the first time in 19 years! Eric Musselman had a forgettable three-year stint as Golden State's head coach (108-138 / zero playoff appearances) but he had quite a run coaching Nevada, capturing the CBI title in his first season, then winning 28, 29 and 29 games making the "Big Dance in each of his final three seasons. He was 201-2 last season (1st at Arkansas) but his Razorbacks are 17-5 (9-4 in the SEC), right behind Alabama in second place tied with LSU. Alabama owns a terrific trio of guards in sophomore Shackelford (14.5 & 4.), senior Petty (13.0 & 5.1) and freshman Quinerly (11.7). 6-8 senior Jones (11.7 & 5.7) is the team's top frontcourt player. Arkansas also features four double-digit scorers in 6-6 freshman Moody (16.2 & 5.6) plus guards Notae (12.5) and Tate (11.1-3.6-4.3). The 6-9 Smith (11.8 & 6.4) is a graduate transfer from Indiana and is the team's top frontcourt player. Back on Jan 16 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama routed Arkansas 90-59 but since then, Arkansas has won all SEVEN of its SEC games (6-1 ATS). Revenge works here! Good luck...Larry |
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02-24-21 | Raptors v. Heat -2 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Mia Heat at 8:05 ET. It's the Raptors and Heat tonight in Miami. Toronto won the NBA title two years ago and last season had the second-best regular season record next to Milwaukee. However, Toronto has been forced to play its 'home' games in Tampa due to COVID travel restrictions with Canada and the Raptors opened 2-8. They were still just 7-12 through Jan 29 but despite a 'home' loss to Philly last night, are 9-4 their last 13 games (now 16-16 on the season). Miami made it to the NBA Finals last year after bonding in the playoff bubble, posting the best pointspread mark of any playoff team (16-5 ATS). However, a three-game winning streak (all on the road) still leaves the Heat at just 14-17 (12-18-1 ATS). Miami is currently 10th in the East, which would allow them to 'sneak into' the NBA's postseason "Play-In" round Philadelphia ended Toronto's four-game win streak with a 109-102 win in Tampa. The Raptors played a fourth straight game without Kyle Lowry (17.7-5.4-6.4), who has a sprained left thumb. Norman Powell (17.3) led the Raptors with 24 points and Pascal Siakam (20.6-7.7-4.8) added 22. VanVleet (19.8-4.5-6.7) was left off the All-Star Game reserves roster on Tuesday snub?) but frontcourt players Anunoby (13.9 & 5.90 and Boucher (13.3 & 6.5) has been strong contributors all season. Adebayo (19.6-9.5-5.5) and Butler (19.1-7.6-7.6) also got snubbed, leaving Miami without an All-Star for the first time since 2017 (both were All-Stars last year). The bigger news is that Herro (16.9-6.1-3.8) missed Miami's last game with a hip injury and is listed as questionable. Vet Goran Dragic (14.4 & 5.3) has an ankle injury and hasn't played since Feb 5 but is listed as questionable for the Raptors game. Both could play. However, even without Dragic and Herro (as well as Avery Bradley and Meyers Leonard, who are both out longer term), the Heat have shown they have enough firepower to win big games, such as their victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night. Tough spot for Toronto off two games in three nights vs Philly and now playing a third game in FOUR nights at Miami. I feel that the Heat are starting to "come together" and I expect them to win handily here. Good luck...Larry |
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02-24-21 | Warriors v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Ind Pacers at 7:35 ET. All are familiar with the "fall from grace" of the Warriors, going from FIVE straight appearances in the NBA finals (three titles) to the NBA's worst record (15-50) in last year's pandemic-shortened season. The 17-15 Warriors visit 15-14 Indiana playing for the FOURTH and final time on a six-day trip. All three Golden State games in the past five days have gone to the wire, including the Warriors' 114-106 victory in New York on Tuesday. The Pacers are back on the court for the first time since Feb 17. Curry (30.2-5.4-6.2), Wiggins (17.6 & 4.8) and Oubre (15.1 & 6.0) have led the way for the Warriors this season. Curry led ten way with 37 points against the Knicks (Oubre and Wiggins combined for 35) but the best news was that the team's No. 1 pick (2nd overall of the 2020 draft), James Wiseman (12.2 & 5.9), returned for the first time since Jan 30 (11-game absence caused by a sprained wrist). He played just 16 minutes but scored 14 points. Draymond Green (7-12-9) also bounced back effectively after his late ejection against the Hornets contributed to the narrow defeat last Saturday. The Pacers' unexpected time off was due to games against Houston (weather-related) and San Antonio (COVID-related) being postponed. Head coach Nate Bjorkgren was happy to give his guys a break while also using additional practice time to fine-tune an offensive attack that had averaged 120.5 points in winning THREE of its previous four games. PG Brogdon (21.6-4.8-6.6) and PF Sabonis (21.5 & 5.7) are having excellent season, while center Turner (13.2 & 6.6), SF McDermott (13.1 PPG on 51.1% shooting) and guard Justin Holiday (11.5 & 4.2) round out the current starting-five. T.J. Warren (foot surgery) and Caris LeVert (kidney operation) remain sidelined. Backup PG McConnell (5.8 & 6.6 APG) plus SG Lamb are also quality contributors. Lamb's return from injury is a BIG deal. He has averaged 12.4 PPG (on 50.8% shooting) in his 16 games back since tearing his ACL last February. These teams met back on Jan 12 in San Francisco under polar-opposite circumstances. On that night, Indiana was the side enduring a back-to-back on the road while Golden State was well rested, having spent two straight weeks at home. However, the Pacers won 104-95 that night and I believe will win just as easily tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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02-23-21 | Ole Miss v. Missouri -3 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Missouri at 9:00 ET. Kermit Davis is in his third season at Ole Miss. His first team won 20 games but last season's team won just 15, going 6-12 in the SEC (12th of 14 teams). Davis was critical of his team saying that it couldn't close out games. "We had seven games in SEC play where we had leads but couldn't hold them." Ole Miss is 12-9 (7-7 SEC) as it visits Columbia, Mo tonight to take on the Missouri Tigers. Cuonzo Martin's were coming off back-to-back losing seasons of 15-17 and 15-16 but are 14-6 this season and Ranked No. 24, although they are only 7-7 in SEC play. Ole Miss had a four-game winning streak snapped Saturday, losing a rematch to rival Miss St 66-56 at home in Oxford 66-56. The loss stalled the Rebels' late push for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. "We just didn't have our best edge, and we didn't play like a team that was desperate chasing the (tournament) bubble tonight," head coach Kermit Davis said. PG Shuler (15.7 & 3.5 APG) leads the team in scoring, with just two others chipping in double digits. They are 6-8 Arizona graduate transfer Romello White (10.8 & 5.4) and junior guard Joiner (10.8). Missouri's starting-five includes leading scorer Pinson (14.6-3.0-3.1), three Smiths (not related) and the 6-7 Brown (7.7 & 6.0). Guards Dru Smith (14.1-3.7-3.6), and Mark Smith (10.0) plus the 6-7 Mitchell Smith (4.3 & 5.) round to the Smith 'delegation.' 6-10 center Jeremiah Tilmon returned after missing two games due to a death in his family and scored 17 points on 5-for-5 shooting from the floor and 7-for-7 from the free-throw line. Tilman (13.1 & 7.6) will likely return to the starting lineup shortly, as is the team's best frontcourt player. While Ole Miss was having its four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, Missouri ended a three-game slide with a 93-78 rout at South Carolina. Here, the Tigers will look to avenge their worst loss of the season, as they fell 80-59 at Ole Miss back on Feb 10, getting outscored 38-22 in the second half. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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02-23-21 | Notre Dame v. Louisville -3 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Louisville at 7:00 ET. Notre Dame rolled into Syracuse averaging 81.4 points during their previous five games (only loss being a two-point setback at Georgia Tech two weeks ago when they blew a 17-point lead) and suffered a similar fate as it did back in Atlanta on Feb 6. The Fighting Irish led Syracuse 55-35 with 16:49 to go, in the game but managed just 12 points the rest of the way in a 75-67 loss. Notre Dame (9-11 / 6-8 in the ACC) visits Louisville (11-5 / 6-4 in the ACC), as the Cardinals are looking to 'shake off' a 99-54 rout at North Carolina on Saturday. Notre Dame bounced back from a 14-win season two seasons ago to go 20-12 last year but lost PF Mooney, who averaged 16.2 & 12.7. Mike Brey is now in his 21st season at South Bend but this year's team has struggled, until its recent spurt. PG Hubb (13.7 & 6.2 APG) and SG Goodwin (12.5 & 5.3) are a solid backcourt duo plus the 6-10 Laszewski leads the team in scoring (15.0) and rebounding (7.8). Stanford transfer Ryan (10.1) and Wertz (7.8) play on the perimeter with Hubb and Goodwin, while 6-11 UConn transfer Durham (10.2 & 5.2) has been a solid complement up front to Laszewski. Chris Mack took over at Xavier for the 2009-10 season when Sean Miller took the Arizona job. He led the Musketeers to eight NCAA tourneys in nine seasons before moving to Louisville. The Cards went 20-14 in his first season (NCAA bid) and were 24-7 in his second year, when the season was shut down in March (AP ranked them 14th in its final poll). Louisville swingman Jordan Nwora (18.0 & 7.7) is gone from last season's Louisville team but FOUR starters returned. However, it's Carlik Jones who leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.1-5.3-4.5. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year. He's joined by returning guard Johnson (12.7-5.9-3.4) in the backcourt. The 6-7 Williamson did little last season but averages 9.6 & 7.6 this season plus 6-9 redshirt freshman Withers is adding 9.8 & 7.6. True freshman guard Davis (7.9 & 3.4) and the 6-8 Slazinski (6.0 & 3.4). Not sure how Notre Dame bounces back from its COMPLETE co;;apse at Syracuse, while the Cards should have an extra 'bounce in their step' in returning to their home arena, after allowing North Carolina to shoot 60.9% on Saturday, Louisville's first action in 19 days due to COVID-19 concerns within the program. Louisville shot just 32.8% at Chapel Hill, including 1 of 16 on threes. That WON'T repeat itself here! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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02-23-21 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 69-53 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Va Tech at 7:00 ET. Ga Tech head coach Josh Pastner is in his fifth season with the Yellow Jackets, after SEVEN years at Memphis. His first four seasons have not gone well (just 65-67) and the Yellow Jackets sit 11-8 (7-6 in the ACC) with four games left in their regular season. Va Tech head coach Mike Young is in his second season with the school, after a record-setting 17-year tenure as the head coach at Wofford. The Terriers posted a 30-5 overall record in 2018-19, including a perfect 18-0 mark in Southern Conference play, and registered a convincing 84-68 win over Seton Hall in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Young built the Terriers into one of the Southern Conference's preeminent programs and a perennial NCAA Tournament participant. He guided Wofford to five NCAA Tournament berths over his last 10 seasons and five Southern Conference championships. The Hokies were just 16-16 overall in Young's first season at Blacksburg, losing almost two-thirds of their ACC games (7-13), but are currently 14-4 (8-3 in the ACC) and ranked 16th in the nation. Georgia Tech is hoping to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010 but the Yellow Jackets will need a strong finish. Ga Tech has a solid five-man rotation but the Yellow Jackets have little depth. Returning PG Alvarado (16.7-3.7-4.2) and SG Devoe (13.7-4.4-3.1) have been excellent plus returning 6-9 big man Wright (16.3 & 7.5) present an excellent trio. 6-7 USC transfer Usher (10.7 & 4.3) helps out up front plus VMI transfer Parham (7.7) adds to the team's backcourt depth. Landers Nolley was selected to the ACC All-Freshman Team in leading the Hokies in scoring (15.5 PPG) last season but after the season he announced he was transferring to Memphis. More bad news came when the 6-6 Horne (7.6 & 4.2) also transferred. Sophomore guard Tyrece Radford (10.2 & 6.2) was both the team's leading returning scorer AND rebounder! Radford is averaging 11.1 & 6.3 RPG and the 6-9 Alleyne (9.9) has made excellent progress in his sophomore season. Two 6-7 transfers start up front The 6-7 Keve Aluma (15.7 & 7.6) followed Young from Wofford and is Va Tech's best player this season, while 6-7 Delaware transfer Justyn Mutts (8.9 & 6.6) has been solid. Returning guards Cone (9.2), Cottoor (9.2) and Bede (4.4 & 3.0 APG) have all added valuable contributions. Radford was suspended back in late January (no date of return, if any) and Cone is dealing with an ankle injury for Va Tech. Ga Tech is coming off an impressive win against Miami, leading 48-18 at halftime and winding up with a 27-point victory, its largest margin of victory in an ACC road game in program history. However, the Yellow jackets have won just TWO road games this game (the other was at a 5-15 Nebraska team. Also note that Miami is a funk, having lost SEVEN of eight. Winning at Va Tech is a 'horse of a different color!' Va Tech is 9-1 at home this season, losing only in a shocking 75-55 upset at the hands of Penn St back on Dec 8. Tech has won SEVEN straight at home since, including three wins over ranked teams, highlighted by an impressive 65-51 win over then-No. 8 UVa. The Hokies have had their last three games postponed because of COVID-19 issues (last played Feb 6) and hopefully, Cone's ankle has had time to heal. Even if he's a "no-go," the "PRICE is RIGHT" on Va Tech here at home. Ga Tech doesn't win away from home vs this class of opponent! Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-21 | Oregon v. USC -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on USC at 9:00 ET. Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He's now in his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon has played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). Oregon is 14-4 overall (9-3 in the Pac 12) as it visits Los Angeles to take on USC. Andy Enfield led Florida Gulf Coast to a 26-11 season in his second at the school, making a Sweet 16 appearance. That gave him the chance to "move on up" to USC but his first two seasons were HUGE disappointments (11-21 and 12-20). However, the Trojans have won 21-plus games in FOUR of the last five seasons, including a 22-9 mark last season. USC saw its top-five scorers leave after the 2020 season but despite seeing its seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday against Arizona (lost 81-72), the Trojans are 18-4, including 12-3 in the Pac 12 (tied with UCLA for first place). PG Payton Pritchard (20.5-4.3-5.5) was a HUGE loss for Oregon plus Altman also lost SG Mathis (8.5) and 6-7 SF Juiston (7.9 & 6.3). Coming to the rescue for Oregon this season have come three transfers. The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers, the 6-6 Eric Williams who transferred from Duquesne and 6-6 Figueroa from St John's. Omoruyi leads the team with 17.2 PPG (adds 5.4 RPG), Williams is adding 11.0 & 6.1 and Figueroa 10.7 & 6.4. That's a strong frontcourt, even with the loss of 6-11 center N'Faly Dante (8.2 & 5.8), who suffered a torn ACL in mid-December. 6-8 guard Duarte (17.1 & 4.9) is now joined in the backcourt by PG Will Richardson, who is back from a left thumb injury suffered in the preseason. He's averaging 11.3-3.3-3.3 in six games, the last five being Oregon wins! Enfield recruited a "super frosh" in 7-0 freshman Evan Mobley plus brought in SIX transfers. Evan Mobley has lived up to the hype, averaging 17.1 & 8.8. He joins his brother Isaiah (a 6-10 sophomore), who has added 9.6 & 7.7. Peterson (9.1 & 4.7) is a 6-8 swingman from Rice and joins guards Eaddy (Santa Clara) and White, a grad transfer from Utah Valley St. Eaddy is averaging 13.8 PPG and White 7.2. Guard Goodwin (6.0 & 4.0) comes off the bench to give USC a solid six-man rotation. USC had won 12 of 13 before losing to Arizona and it's "bounce-back" time here. This contest is the only matchup between Oregon and USC in the regular season, and it was rescheduled from Jan 30 due to COVID-19 protocols. The Ducks have three fewer wins than UCLA and USC but have the same amount of Pac 12 losses (three).This is a BIG game, as USC looks for at least a share of its first conference title since 1985. The 81 points USC allowed to Arizona on Saturday was the most the Trojans have allowed in regulation in 2020-21. The Trojans are allowing just 64.4 PPG on the season on 38.5% shooting, which ranks 4th-best in the nation. USC gets this all-important "W." Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-21 | Grizzlies v. Mavs -5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (Southwest) is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. Memphis opened just 2-6 but then ran off FIVE in a row before five straight games were postponed due to COVID. The Grizzlies returned and won two more (now a seven-game win streak) to reach 9-6 but have since fallen back to 13-13 by losing SEVEN of 11. Dallas was expected to be a solid playoff contender this season (broke a three-season playoff drought by going 43-32 last season) but that hasn't been the case. The Mavericks lost SIX straight from the end of January into the beginning of February to fall to 8-13. However, Dallas finally got its full complement of players back and won FIVE of six (including FOUR straight) before losing 121-118 at home to Portland on Feb 14. The Mavericks haven't played since due to inclement weather in the state of Texas. They had a home game against Detroit and a one-game trip to Houston postponed. Dallas comes in 13-15 and hasn't been at the break-even mark being 8-8 on Jan 23. Memphis gave regulars Brandon Clarke (12.9 & 5.6), Grayson Allen (10.1) and Kyle Anderson (13.8 & 6.2) the night off against the Suns on Saturday and lost 128-97! PG Morant (18.9 & 7.8 APG), center Valanciunas (16.2 & 11.0) and SG Brooks (15.8) are all having good years. There's no lack of talent for Dallas, as starting alongside PG Doncic (29.1-8.6-9.4) and center Porzingis (20.5 & 8.2) are guard Richardson (12.5) plus forwards Finney-Smith (9.1 & 4.8) and Kleber (7.1 & 5.4). SF Hardaway comes off the bench to average 16.7 PPG plus guards Brunson (11.7) and Burke (8.0) add more 'punch' off the bench. Dallas is well-rested and as noted, has its full complement of players back on the court. I still maintain that the Mavs are ready to go on a run. Lay the points in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-21 | Syracuse v. Duke -4.5 | Top | 71-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Duke at 7:00 ET. Syracuse rallied from 20 points down to defeat visiting Notre Dame 75-67 on Saturday, marking the Orange's biggest comeback since a victory over Rutgers in January 2005. Jim Boeheim's team has won SIX of its last eight games and is now 13-6 overall (7-5 in the ACC). Duke's Mike Krzyzewski took over at Duke for the 1980-81 season and did not make the NCAA tourney in his first three seasons. However, the only TWO times Duke has missed the "Big Dance" since then was in the 1994-95 season and last season, when Duke was 25-6 but COVID shut down the season. Back in that 94-95 season, coach K coached the first 12 games of the season (9-3) before leaving the team for back surgery and to recover from exhaustion. Pete Gaudet took over as interim head coach and compiled a record of 4–15 with a mark of 2–13 in conference play. Duke finished the season with a record of 13–18 overall and in ninth place in the ACC at 2–14. Duke was 7-8 through Feb 9 this season but has won three straight, on the road at NS State and Wake Forest, plus beating No. 7 UVA this past Saturday, 66-65. Duke is 10-8 (8-6 in the ACC) Jim Boeheim's Syracuse team has FIVE players in double digits, getting production off the bench from only guard Richmond (6.7) However, the Orange do own a very good starting-five (all are averaging more than 30 minutes per game). SF Griffin is averaging 15.2 PPG and adds 6.6 RPG. The 6-7 Guerrier also averages 15.2 PG plus leads in rebounding (9.4) and adds 15.5 PPG. The 6-10 Dolezag completes the frontcourt with 11.2 & 5.4. SG Buddy Boeheim had a career-high 29 points in the win over Notre Dame and is also averaging 15.2 PPG. He's joined in the backcourt by PG Girard (10.5 & 3.5 APG). Duke opened No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but the team's Jan 12 loss at Va Tech saw 5-3 Duke (3-1 in the ACC) fall out of the AP poll on Monday. As noted above, Duke is currently 10-8, hardly worthy of top-25 consideration. Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA, the 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) will play this season for the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) was taken by the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guards Stewart )12.9 & 4.1) and Roach (9.0) have played well but 6-9 freshman Johnson (11.9 & 6.5) has left the team to prepare for the NBA. One could "good Riddance," as Duke has gone on a three-game run without him. 6-9 sophomore Hurt leads the team in scoring (18.5) and rebounding (6.4), while sophomore SF Stevens (12.9 & 4.1) and senior guard Goldwire (6.3-3.1-3.8) round out Duke's main contributors. "Over the last three games, we've emphasized defense and we've changed our ball screen defense which has helped us," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "The last three games, we've really played well on the defensive end of the court and it's made a difference in us winning and losing. We have to keep going." Here's the deal. Syracuse has won on the ACC road against Boston College (3-13 / 1-9 ACC) and NC State, after it lost its best player in Daniels. In the Orange's other five road games, they've lost at Clemson, Pitt, North Carolina and UVa of the ACC plus at Rutgers (Big Ten) by an average of 15.2 PPG. Lay the points with Duke. Good luck...Larry |
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02-21-21 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 115-123 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Den Nuggets at 7:35 ET. The Denver Nuggets earned the title of "Comeback Kids' in last season's playoffs in the 'bubble' but opened the current season just 1-4. Denver then won 11 of 15 and ended January at 12-8. However, the Nuggets are just 4-5 in February and at 16-13 sit 7 1/2-games back in the West (No. 7 seed). If the playoffs were to begin today, Denver would be in the "Play-In" round (seeds 7 thru 10). The Hawks entered the current season off a three-year mark of 73-158 (.316) and will take the court tonight having lost FIVE losing of their last six games/ Atlanta is a modest 12-17, a record that would leave them a half-game outside of the East's No. 10 seed. |
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02-21-21 | Bryant v. Merrimack +1 | Top | 76-60 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference crusher (Northeast) is on Merrimack at 4:00 ET. Not many pay too much attention to the NEC, so here's something few, if any, will be aware of. Merrimack College was in its first season as a Division I member last season and was picked dead-last in the preseason poll. However, the Warriors would go 20-11 overall and 14-4 in conference play, becoming the first program ever to win an outright conference regular season title in its first season reclassifying to Division I. A show of hands for all who knew this? COVID has taken its toll on the NEC this season and last night in Springfield , RI, the homestanding Bryant Bulldogs eked out a 60-58 win over the visiting Warriors. Michael Green had 16 points as Bryant won its seventh consecutive home game, holding off Merrimack 60-58 on Saturday. Bryant is now 11-5 overall and 7-4 in NEC play. Merrimack fell to 8-5 and the Warriors have ONLY played conference games this season. Bryant is a high scoring team (86.4 PPG) with SIX players competing in all 16 games this season. A quartet of guards are led by Kiss (17.0-5.6-3.4) and PG Green (16.8-4.-4.2), who are joined by Childs (15.0) and Pride (13.1 & 7.1). The 6-8 Elisias plays center and just misses double digits (9.2 PPG) but leads the team in rebounding at 7.4 per game. For Merrimack, SEVEN players have competed in all 13 games, with FIVE averaging 28-plus minutes. The 6-8 Minor leads in scoring (12.6) and rebounding (9.1), while PG Watkins (12.2-4.0-4.2) is the only other player scoring in double digits. Guards Reid (9.8 & 5.2), Jensen (8.5) and Derring (7.8) round out the remaining top contributors. I noted that Bryant is a high scoring team (see above) but it should NOT have gone unnoticed that the Bulldogs were held to 60 points on their homecourt by Merrick (season-low in points for a single game). Let me add that it shouldn't have been a surprise, as Merrimack opened the season just 1-3 but before Saturday's loss, had won SEVEN of eight, holding opponents to 59.6 PPG. Head coach Joe Gallo (NEC coach of the year last season) preaches defense and late this afternoon, gets a quick rematch with Bryant, this time in North Andover, Mass on the Warriors' homecourt (Hammel Court). Wagner leads the NEC at 9-4 with Bryant at 7-4 and Merrimack at 8-5. Some quick "payback" here by the Warriors moves them ahead of Bryant, 9-5 to 7-5. That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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02-20-21 | California v. Washington | Top | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Pac 12 Game of the Year is on Washington at 10:00 ET. California (8-16 overall, 3-14 Pac-12) and Washington (4-17, 3-13) play Saturday night in Seattle, with the loser taking over last-place in the Pac-12 heading into the last week of the regular season. Cal's Mark Fox had an excellent five-year run at Nevada (averaged 24.6 wins per season with three NCAA bids) but his nine-year stay at Georgia ended with just two NCAA tourneys in nine years (18.1 wins per season). He surfaced at Cal last season and the Bears were 14-18. Mike Hopkins was a longtime assistant to Jim Boeheim and he took over at Washington prior to the 2017-18 season, going 21-13 and 27-9. However, the team was just 5-17 before last season's shutdown and the current season has been a 'nightmare!' |
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02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers -3 | Top | 96-94 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 8:35 ET. The Los Angeles Lakers welcome the Miami Heat to Staples Center on Saturday, as the teams square off for the first time since LA beat Miami 106-93 in Game 6 of last season's NBA Finals. Miami made a great run last season in the Orlando 'bubble,' reaching the NBA Finals before losing four games to two against the LA Lakers. The Heat's 16-5 ATS record was easily the best of any team in the postseason. However, the current season has not gone smoothly, as the Heat are not only just 12-17 but their 10-18-1 ATS record (35.7%) is the second-worst mark in the NBA. The Lakers own the NBA's second-best record at 22-8 (13-3 road record is an NBA-best) but were soundly beaten by the Brooklyn Nets 109-98 here in Staples on Thursday (no K.D. for Brooklyn). LBJ had 32 points, eight rebounds and seven assists for the Lakers but they played without Dennis Schroder due to the NBA's health and safety protocols. They are also missing Anthony Davis (22.5 & 8.4), who missed his second contest after suffering a calf strain Sunday against the Denver Nuggets. A.D. isn't expected to return for at least a month. The Heat snapped a three-game losing streak with 118-110 victory over the Sacramento Kings on Thursday. Tyler Herro had 27 points on 12-of-17 shooting as SIX Miami players scored in double figures. Jimmy Butler had 13 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds for his third straight triple-double. The 6-9 Bam Adebayo also recorded a triple-double with 16 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. Adebayo (19.8-9.3-5.5) leads Miami in scoring, although Butler (19.1-7.8-7.7) is close behind. However, Butler has played in just 17 of Miami's 29 games. Herro (17.4-6.2-3.90 is the team's third-leading scorer but Miami really misses vet PG Dragic (14.4 & 5.3 APG) plus its best defensive guard Bradley (8.5). BOTH remain sidelined. Obviously, Davis' absence is a big deal and Schroder (14.2-3.6-4.3) has been a HUGE plus this season for LA. However, no one is surprised that LBJ (25.9-8.2-7.9) hasn't missed a single game and the Lakers will give more "PT" up front to PFs Harrell (13.2 & 6.2) and Morris (4.4 & 3.4) plus SF Kuzma (11.0 & 6.0) with A.D. out. Not sure who will start alongside Caldwell-Pope (8.5) in the backcourt but Vogel can choose between Horton-Tucker (6.8), Caruso (5.4) and Matthews (5.0). VERY tough "situation" for Miami here, playing its SIXTH contest (in 10 days) of a seven-game road trip (Miami's last home game was Feb 9) against the defending champs coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Nets (on TNT for all to see). Lay the points with LA! Good luck...Larry |
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02-20-21 | Louisville v. North Carolina -5 | Top | 54-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* ACC Showdown is on North Carolina at 6:00 ET. To say the least, it has NOT been a vintage year for the ACC. The NCAA began seeding the entire field for the 1979 tourney and in every year but ONE (1990), the ACC has had at least one No. 1 or No. 2 seed. The 2021 tourney could make that TWO times since sending began. Louisville (11-4 / 6-3 ACC) and North Carolina (13-7 / 7-5 ACC) will likely make the NCAA field but are certainly not 'locks' to get it. The schools meet tonight in Chapel Hill for the only scheduled meeting between the two teams this regular season. Louisville will be playing just its second game of February, as the Cardinals have not played since posting a 74-58 victory over Georgia Tech back on Feb. 1. Their last four scheduled games were postponed because of COVID-19 issues in the program (even head coach Chris Mack was sidelined). Mack took over at Xavier for the 2009-10 season when Sean Miller took the Arizona job. He led the Musketeers to eight NCAA tourneys in nine seasons before moving to Louisville. The Cards went 20-14 in his first season (NCAA bid) and were 24-7 in his second year, when the season was shut down in March (AP ranked them 14th in its final poll). Louisville swingman Jordan Nwora (18.0 & 7.7) is gone from last season's Louisville team but FOUR starters returned. However, it's Carlik Jones who leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.4-5.6-4.9. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year. He joined by returning guard Johnson (13.1-6.1-3.4) in the backcourt. The 6-7 Williamson did little last season but averages 9.6 & 7.5 this season plus 6-9 redshirt freshman Withers is adding 10.1 & 7.6. True freshman guard Davis (8.2 & 3.5) and the 6-8 Slazinski (6.0 & 3.5) all contribute. North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll. The Tar Heels have NOT lived up to their preseason ranking. Last year's super frosh Anthony lost time to injury last season (played 22 games) but averaged 18.5-5.7-4.0 and as expected was a "One and Done!" Also gone is senior guard Robinson and his 11.8 PPG for North Carolina. The Tar Heels' strength is their depth. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (11.7 & 7.6), the 6-10 Brooks (10.3 & 7.4) and the 6-11 Sharpe (9.8 & 7.8), while the backcourt goes five-deep. The group includes Love (10.5-2.6-3.6), Davis (7.9), Walton (7.4), Black (6.2 & 5.3) and Platek (4.6). North Carolina draws a Louisville team that hasn't played in almost THREE weeks with some players possibly dealing with COVID issues. North Carolina remains unbeaten at home (7-0) and I'm willing to lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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02-20-21 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +6.5 | Top | 79-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Pittsburgh at 4:00 ET. Florida St head coach Leonard Hamilton has built a championship-caliber program in Tallahassee, one that had produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools heading into the current season, behind only Duke and Virginia since 2016. Florida State was 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic last March but entered this season losing three key players from a team.PG Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.0), SG Vassell (12.7 & 5.1) and 6-7 swingman Williams (9.7 & 4.0), who were all chosen in the NBA draft. However, guard MJ Walker is back and leads with 13.9 PPG and he's surrounded by a talented group. Pittsburgh's Jeff Capel is in his third season with Panthers and is off years of just 14 and 16 wins. Pitt comes in just 9-8 (5-7 in the ACC) and enters having SIX of its past seven games. Pittsburgh is led by the 6-6 Justin Champagnie, who averages 18.7 & 11.5 (he'll be the best player on the floor). PG Johnson (14.1 & 5.9 APG) has two solid backcourt partners in Toney (14.4 & 5.9) and Horton (9.8). Here's the rub. Pitt has NOT played well recently but is capable. It's 3-1 SU its last four as a home underdog, winning outright over Syracuse, Duke and Va Tech. The Panthers are catching FSU off its HUGE win over UVa (24th straight home win over an ACC opponent) but note that with COVID-19 issues shuffling the Seminoles' schedule multiple times, they have played only THREE road games and gone 1-2. "Upset Alert!" |
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02-20-21 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse -2.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Syracuse at 2:00 ET. Syracuse is 12-6 (6-5 ACC) was looking for a third straight on Wednesday but its visit to Louisville was postponed hours before the opening tip. It was the fifth game this season Syracuse had postponed. 9-10 Notre Dame (6-7 in the ACC) will visit Syracuse Saturday and has closed within one game of .500 on the season by winning FOUR of its last five games. |
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02-19-21 | Toledo +2 v. Buffalo | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (MAC) is on Toledo at 9:00 ET. Tod Kowalczyk (was the head coach at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay from 2002–10, before accepting the head coaching position at Toledo on March 30 2010. This marks his 11th season at Toledo, having won 20 games or more four times (high of 27 in the 2013-14 season) and has captured four MAC-West titles. However, the Rockets have never won the MAC tourney under Kowalczyk, therefore they've never received an NCAA bid. This season, that may just change. Nate Oates came to Buffalo for the 2015-16 season and he led the Bulls to 27 wins and 32 wins in his final two seasons (advanced to the second round of the Big Dance each season) but then left for Alabama. The Tide went 16-15 last season but currently the Tide are 17-5 (SEC-best 12-1) and ranked 8th in the nation. Taking over for Oates was his assistant Jim Whitesell, who was head coach at Loyola-Chicago from 2004-11. The Bulls surprised last season going 20-12 before the shutdown but are just 9-6 (7-4 in the MAC). Toledo is currently 17-6 and 12-3 in MAC play. There are no East/West divisions this season and the MAC tourney (in Cleveland) will feature just EIGHT teams. Toledo has the inside track for the No. 1 seed (Akron is 11-3 and Ken St 10-4) and head to Buffalo Friday night for the lone regular season meeting between the two teams. The Rockets average 80.7 PPG with all five starters in double digits. Toledo starts a trio of guards in Jackson (17.2-5.6-6.0), Littleson (13.6) and Rollins (13.3 & 5.6), while the 6-7 Shumate (12.5 & 4.4) and the 6-6 Millner (12.3 & 6.4) start up front. Guard Saunders (7.40 and the 6-8 Acunzo (6.1 & 3.4) are the top reserves. Buffalo has seen two games canceled and four postponed this season (note: in contrast, Toledo has had just ONE game postponed) but comes in on a three-game winning streak in which the Bulls have won by 20, 24 and 32 points (more in a bit). The Bulls do NOT have Toledo's depth but do have a quality 'Core 4' in forwards Williams (17.9 & 7.4) and Mballo (14.8 & 9.8) plus guards Graves (15.0-5.7-3.7) and Segu (13.9). No other player averages more than 6.5 PPG but Buffalo can score with Toledo, averaging 82.2 PPG. I noted Buffalo's three straight wins by impressive margins but will add here that those victories have come over 7-10 Ball St, 8-9 Miami-Ohio and 4-13 Western Michigan. I see this as Toledo's breakthrough season under Kowalczyk and that fact that this team has avoided the COVID issues that die]disrupted so many schools' seasons, is another "good sign" that I may just be right. Good luck...Larry |
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02-19-21 | Hawks v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Atlanta Hawks ended a four-game losing streak by beating the Celtics 122-114 on Wednesday in Boston. PG Trae Young scored 16 of his 40 points in the fourth quarter, eight of which came after the Celtics cut the lead to six with 2:38 remaining. Boston PG Kemba Walker did not play ("load management") and center Daniel Theis missed his second game with a sprained right index finger. The two teams are right back at it tonight at TD Garden. The Hawks entered the current season off a three-year mark of 73-158 (.316) and will take the court tonight at a modest 12-16 (.429). The Hawks have a bevy of young stars led by Young (26.5 & 9.3 APG), who is joined by PF Collins (18.2 & 7.6), SF Hunter (17.2 & 5.4) plus SGs Huerter (12.0-3.6-3.8) and Reddish (11.5 & 4.0). Former Houston center has been everything Atlanta has hoped for, averaging 14.3 & 14.0. Boston's 'Dynamic' duo of Brown and Tatum had been the team's top-two producers, with Brown (25.9-5.5-3.6) currently slightly ahead of Tatum (25.8-7.0-4.7) entering this contest. PG Kemba Walker didn't get on the court this season until Jan 17 and while he's averaged 16.4-3.7-4.0 in 13 games, Boston is only 5-8 in that span. Boston really misses Smart (13.1 & 6.) but has depth in the backcourt and the frontcourt. On the injury front, Atlanta's Hunter remains with a knee injury. On the Boston side, Theis remains questionable but Walker is expected to be back. Brown scored 22 points Wednesday but he is dealing with knee soreness (??). Predicting (guessing?) which players "play or don't play" in situations like Brown is an impossible task (often are game-time decisions). I'll back Boston in this bounce-back spot, as Atlanta's Wednesday win ended a SEVEN-game losing streak against the Celtics and was the first Atlanta win in Boston since April 8, 2018. Good luck...Larry |
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02-18-21 | Nets v. Lakers -2 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the LA Lakers at 10:05 ET. The Brooklyn Nets played without Durant (hamstring) and Irving (back) in Tuesday's 128-124 win at the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday. It was the team's fourth straight win and at 18-12, the Nets have moved past the slumping Bucks, who have lost four in a row to fall to 16-12. Brooklyn is now with 1 1/2-games on the East-leading 76ers 19-10) as they visit Staples Center to take on the defending champion Lakers. LA lost back-to-back road games at Philly and Detroit (Jan 27 & 28) but have since won EIGHT of nine which leaves them at 22-7 (behind only the Jazz, who NEVER lose!). KD (29.0-7.3-5.3) and Kyrie (28.3-4.6-5.7) have missed 11 and 10 games. They are both listed as day-to-day, which is at best, questionable. However, their absence didn't prevent Harden from leading a big second-half rally Tuesday at Phoenix. Harden (24.3-8.4-11.8 in his 16 games with the Nets). Harden had 38 points, hitting five 3-pointers, with 11 assists and seven rebounds. Joe Harris (14.9) added 22 points, Jeff Green (9.7 & 3.7) collected 18 points and eight rebounds and Tyler Johnson (4.5) also converted five 3-pointers to chip in 17 points. The Lakers welcome the Nets to town without A.D. (22.5 & 8.4), who is expected to be sidelined until after next month's All-Star break. The Lakers won 112-104 on Tuesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves as LBJ (25.7-8.2-7.9) had 30 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists, while the team's off-season additions PG Dennis Schroder (14.2-3.6-4.3) and PF Montrezl Harrell (13.3 & 6.3) contributed 24 and 17 points, respectively. Kuzma (10.8 & 6.0) took AD's spot in the starting lineup and as usual, Gasol (4.2 & 4.2) started at center and Caldwell-Pope (8.5) at shooting guard. A trio of guards (Horton-Tucker, Caruso and Matthews) combine to average 17.5 PPG plus PF Morris adds 4.6 & 2.5.LA is BETTER than it was last season! Lakers head coach Frank Vogel believes the Lakers' depth will help overcome Davis' absence. The Nets trailed by as much as 24 points against Phoenix but outscored the Suns 74-49 in the second half. The Nets trailed 124-116 after a three-pointer by Chris Paul with 2:48 remaining but Harden and Green sparked a 12-0 run to clinch the victory. This just in. The Suns are NOT the Lakers. The Lakers are holding opponents to 105.8 PPG (2nd) on 44.9% shooting (4th), including 34.8% on threes (3rd). The Nets are the top-scoring team in the NBA at 121.7 PPG (also lead by making 50.2% of their FGs) but will VERY likely be short-handed. The Nets allow 117.9 PPG (28th), which is 12 PPG more than the Lakers. I WON'T buck the Lakers here! Good luck...Larry |
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02-18-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mil Bucks at 7:35 ET. The Toronto Raptors won 124-113 at Milwaukee on Tuesday, led by 33 points from Fred VanVleet (20.4-4.2-6.4) and 23 from Pascal Siakam (20.6-7.8-4.5). PG Kyle Lowry (17.7-5.4-6.4) chipped in with 18 points in just 22 minutes before calling it a night early in the third quarter because of pain in his left ankle. He is listed as questionable for this rematch on Thursday night. For the Bucks, they won FIVE straight (also 5-0 ATS) to open February and many (most?) felt that the team was starting to find the form that led to Milwaukee owning the NBA's best record in each of the last two regular seasons. However, starting with a 125-124 loss in Phoenix on Feb 10, the Bucks will take the court on a FOUR-game losing streak (also 0-4 ATS) and at 16-12, have fallen behind both Brooklyn (18-12) and Philly (19-10) in the East. Toronto won the NBA title two seasons ago and last season, only Milwaukee owned a better regular season record than the Raptors. However, the team opened the current season 2-8 and while the Raptors have gone 11-7 since that awful start, the team is still an underachieving 13-15 on the season as the All Star break approaches. The good news is the SF Anunoby is back after missing 10 games and his 14.6 PPG and 5.9 RPG are needed. The 6-9 Boucher (13.6 & 6.8) is having his "best season" (he averaged just 6.6 PPG last season, his previous high) plus Powell (16.3) has played both SG and SF. The Bucks played without Jrue Holiday (16.4-4.8-5.4) on Tuesday, as he missed his fifth straight game in COVID-19 protocol (Bucks are 1-4 in those games). He is eligible to play on Thursday but that doesn't mean he will. Forbes (9.5) has stepped into his starting role to average 12.4 PPG but his scoring off the bench has been missed. Milwaukee has all the talent needed in starters Antetokounmpo (28.2-11.4-5.8), Middleton (20.3-5.8-5.8), Lopez (10.8 & 5.1) and DiVincenzo (9.9 & 4.5) plus the 6-10 Portis (11.8 & 7.3) as been excellent off the bench. Forbes will start again if Holiday is a "no-go" or will join fellow reserves Connaughton (6.0 & 3.8) and Augustin (5.9) off the bench. I've had a 'hit or miss' relationship with the Bucks this season but this one sure seems to have "B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it." I'm laying the points with Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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02-18-21 | Houston v. Wichita State +8 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Wichita St at 7:00 ET. No one should have been surprised by what Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, after successful stops at Washington St, Oklahoma and Indiana. His first Houston team went 13-19 (2014-15) but FIVE straight 20-win seasons followed. The Cougars won 27 (2017-18) and 33 (2018-19) games, before going 23-8 in last season's pandemic shortened one. Houston is currently 17-2 (11-2 in the AAC) and ranked 6th in the latest AP poll. No other AAC team is ranked but when the Cougars visit 12-4 Wichita St tonight, they are WELL aware that the Shockers only have two conference losses as well (albeit nine wins). Houston beat Wichita State 70-63 back on Jan 6 at home but never shook the Shockers. Houston guards Grimes (16.9 & 6.5) and Sasser (15.1) are the 'big dogs,' joined on the perimeter by Jarreau (10.0-5.3-4.3) and freshman Mark (8.5 & 3.0). The best frontcourt player is the 6-7 Gorham (8.2 & 10.1). Houston wins with defense, as Sampson's team is allowing only 57.3 PPG, ranking second-best in the nation. The Cougars are holding opponents to 36.5% shooting (1st), including 25.5% on threes (also 1st). Wichita St's season was marred before it got started, as head coach Gregg Marshall resigned as coach of Wichita State after multiple allegations of verbal and physical abuse spanning years on November 17, 2020. Marshall's success started at Winthrop (seven NCAA berths in nine years) and continued at Wichita St, winning the NIT title in 2011 then winning 30-plus games in three straight seasons, including a Final 4 appearance in 2013. Lead assistant Isaac Brown was named interim head coach and has done an excellent job, despite losing center Echenique (11.3 & 7.1) plus guards Stevenson (11.1 & 4.7( and Burton (10.3-3.5-3.4). However, the Shockers are a deep team this season, led by a quartet of guards in Etienne (17.3), UConn transfer Gilbert (10.2-3.1-3.7) and Dennis (8.6 & 3.8) and Council (7.5 & 4.5). The top frontcourt performers are the 6-8 Udeze (9.8 & 3.6), the 6-6 Wade (6.3 & 5.7) and 6-7 JUCO transfer Jackson (5.6 & 4.4). Wichita St was picked seventh in the league in the preseason and as interim coach Isaac Brown noted, "I think the guys took that in a way that we're going to show everyone that we're better than that. I think having nobody on the preseason all-conference list, that stuff motivates those kids. It gets them to play harder. It gets them to buy in and it gets them to want to prove the point to everybody." Wichita St 'hung with the Cougars in Houston (seven-point loss as an 11-point dog) and Getting a 'TD' or more of points here at home makes them a very 'LIVE' home underdog. Good luck...Larry |
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02-17-21 | Heat v. Warriors +1 | Top | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 10:05 ET. The Miami Heat made a great run last season in the Orlando 'bubble,' reaching the NBA Finals before losing four games to two against the LA Lakers. The Heat's 16-5 ATS record was easily the best of any team in the postseason. However, the current season has not gone smoothly, as the Heat are not only just 11-6 but their 9-17-1 ATS record (34.6%) is an NBA-worst! Golden State's story is well-known, as after FIVE straight appearances in the Finals, the Warriors lost Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala to sign-and-trades, Shaun Livingston retired and Klay Thompson sat out the entire season with a knee injury. The result was the NBA's worst record (15-50). Thompson then blew out his Achilles this offseason while rehabbing from knee surgery, so expectations were again low. However, the Warriors have been a pleasant surprise by going a respectable 15-13. The Heat basically returned their entire roster intact from last year's run to the Finals but Miami will visit Golden State (fourth contest of a SEVEN-game road trip) with only the East's 10th-best record. Miami had one game canceled in January and struggled to suit up the NBA-minimum number of healthy bodies several other times but currently has no players absent due to COVID reasons. However, guards Dragic (14.4 & 5.3 APG) and Bradley (8.5 PPG and an excellent defender) are both out with ankle and calf injuries, respectively. Butler (19.9-7.4-7.1) has excellent numbers but has missed 12 games but he's back in the lineup now and joined by FIVE more double digit scorers. The best of the bunch are the 6-9 Adebayo (19.8-9.4-5.3) and second-year guard Herro (17.3-5.8-3.9), who was terrific down the stretch in last season's playoffs. That said, Miami remains 11-16 and 9-17-1 ATS. The Warriors are coming off a 129-98 home beatdown of the Cavs on Monday, as Steph Curry had 36 points in 30 minutes and Draymond Green recorded a career-high-tying 16 assists to pace the win. Curry's (30.1-5.3-5.9) is having a terrific season and Green (5.2-5.6-8.3) has lately started at center with 1st-round pick James Wiseman (12.2 & 6.1) sidelined with a wrist injury. SF Wiggins (17.5 & 4.6) has found a 'home' in the Bay Area plus fellow SF Oubre (13.9 & 4.6) has lately been more of a SG, paired in the backcourt with Curry. Joining Monday's starting lineup with the above four was Toscano-Anderson (6.9 & 4.9) plus second-year forward Paschall (10.0) plus vets Lee (6.5) and Bazemore (6.4) contributed off the bench. Curry admitted after the romp over Cleveland that he's frustrated by the fact that the Warriors keep beating the league's weaker clubs (10-2 against teams under .500) yet struggle against the heavyweights (5-11 against teams .500 and above). For the Warriors to make and survive in the playoffs that will have to change but for the HERE and NOW, don't the Heat fall into the category of "one of the league's weaker teams?" See above for a reminder. Good luck...Larry |
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02-17-21 | Marquette v. Butler -2 | Top | 73-57 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on Butler at 6:30 ET. The Marquette Golden Eagles are 9-12 (5-10 Big East) and will visit Butler to take on the Bulldogs, who are struggling and by going 7-11 overall (6-9 in the Big East). Marquette head coach Steve Wojciechowski lost Markus Howard, who led the nation in scoring last season at 27.8 PPG plus fellow senior Scar Anim, who added 13.1 PPG. However, he welcomed an impressive freshman to his roster, the 6-11 Dawson Garcia (31.9 & 9.7 last year in high school) plus has surrounded him with a deep supporting cast (to no avail?). LaVall Jordan is in his fourth season at Butler and last year's team was 22-9 before the shutdown (would have made the NCAAs for a fifth time in six seasons). However, Butler lost key players from that team, including leading scorer Baldwin (16.2) and three-point shooter McDermott. Butler has mostly struggled this season. Garcia (12.6 & 6.7) has been good but not great for Marquette but the Golden Eagles do own a solid Core 6.' Ohio St transfer Carton (12.9-3.6-3.5) is joined by McEwen (12.00 in the backcourt, while the 6-7 Cain (9.9 & 5.8), the 6-9 John (8.3 & 5.8) and 6-7 freshman Lewis (8.1 & 6.0) support Garcia up front. The 6-5 Bo Hodges (transfer from ETSU) just became eligible recently at Butler and in five games has averaged team highs of 11.4 PPG and 8.2 RPG. He joins a trio of guards, all averaging in double digits; Bolden 911.2), Thompson (10.8 & 4.8 APG) and Harris (10.8). Up front, the 6-7 Nze adds 10.7 & 7.7 and the 6-9 Golden 9.1 & 4.4. Both of these teams SHOULD be better than their current records but I'll back Butler, looking to avenge a 70-67 loss at Marquette on Feb 2. That victory was Marquette's ONLY win in its last SEVEN games and now plays its third contest of a SIX-game road trip. Butler takes this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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02-17-21 | Gardner-Webb v. Radford -3 | Top | 69-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (Big South) is on Radford at 6:00 ET.
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02-16-21 | Nuggets v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets earned the title of "Comeback Kids' in last season's playoffs in the 'bubble' but opened the current season just 1-4. Denver then won 11 of 15 and ended January at 12-8. However, the Nuggets opened February with THREE straight losses, before winning three in a row after its impressive 122-105 home win over the Lakers on Sunday. However, the 15-11 Nuggets are no closer to the West's No. 3 seed (Clippers), as they are ahead of the West's No. 14 seed (Rockets). Denver is 4 1/2 back of the LA Clippers and 4 1/2 games ahead of Houston (14th of 15 West teams). The Nuggets open a four-game road trip Tuesday in Boston against the Celtics. Boston opened the current season 8-3 but are just 5-10 since and at 13-13 has fallen behind the East's No. 1 seed (Philly) by four games, while leading the East's No. seed (Chicago) by just two games. Boston's fast start has long faded and a team that was considered a real contender to win the Eastern Conference is .500 and mulling trade options as the deadline approaches. Denver has as much quality depth as any team but SG Gary Harris (10.1) has missed straight with a left adductor strain, PJ Dozier (hamstring) will likely miss a few more games with his hamstring, swingman Barton (11.6-3.7-3.2) didn't play Sunday for personal reasons plus starting PF Paul Millsap (10.4 & 5.2) missed the second half of the Lakers game with a left knee sprain. Center Jokic (26.3-11.5-8.7). Jokic had his sixth triple-double in the win, PG Jamal Murray (18.5-4.4-4.4) had 25 points and SF Porter, who missed 10 games from late-Dec through late-Jan is back contributing 14.5 & 6.9 on the season. Boston's 'Dynamic' duo of Brown and Tatum had been the team's top-two producers, with Brown (26.0-5.7-3.4) currently slightly ahead of Tatum (25.6-7.1-5.4) entering this contest. PG Kemba Walker didn't get on the court this season until Jan 17 and while he averaged 16.3-9-4.0 in 12 games, Boston is only 4-8 in that span. Boston really misses Smart (13.1 & 6.) but has depth in the backcourt and the frontcourt. Boston is a disappointment but is NOT a .500 team. Perfect spot to step up tonight against the Nuggets, coming off that big wo=in over the Lakers! Good luck...Larry |
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02-16-21 | Providence v. Connecticut -5.5 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on UConn at 6:30 ET. UConn moved to the AAC for the 2013-14 season and made an improbable run to the Final Four and won a national championship. However, it has spent the last six seasons going just 110-90, with just two seasons of 20-plus wins and one NCAA tourney appearance. The Huskies have fallen out of the national 'picture' but a return to the Big East this season had expectations running high in Storrs. UConn opened 7-1 this season and were ranked 23rd when it lost 74-70 at home to St John's. UConn welcomes Providence to Stoors having lost FOUR of six, to give them a record (in the Big East). Ed Cooley of Providence is in his 10th season at the school. After a slow start to last season, Providence earned FIVE, top-25 wins in February, ending with a 12-6 Big East record. Nothing too surprising there, as the Friars have 10-plus Big East wins in SIX of the last seven seasons. However, this year's team is a modest 11-109 (7-8 in the Big East). Diallo (14.1 & 7.8) led Providence in scoring last season but the big guard graduated, as did fellow guard Pipkins (10.8). The 6-10 Nate Watson was a fan favorite last season (9.0 & 4.6) and is gaining in popularity by averaging 17.2 & 6.8 plus PG Duke (leads the tram in scoring and assists (17.4-6.3-4.9). Fellow guard Reeves adds 9.9 &n 3.9 currently, no other healthy Friar is averaging as much as six PPG. Losing the 6-5 Bouknight (20.3 & 5.3) after six games on Jan 5 due (to an elbow injury), has been HUGE but guards Martin (12.1 & 7.4) and Cole (9.3 & 3.7 APG) have begun to step up. UConn had lost four of five prior to Saturday's 80-72 win at Xavier, as Cole scored a season-high 24 points, making 7 of 14 from the floor and hitting five 3-pointers to go with his season-high seven assists. Up front it's three 6-9 players, Polley (8.7), Whaley (8.3 & 6.4) and freshman Sanogo (6.4 & 4). UConn lost 70-59 at Providence on Feb 10, as the Huskies made just 4 of 20 three-pointers, while getting outscored 18-5 on the Ft line. That should change here at home (fans or no fans). Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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02-15-21 | Jets v. Oilers -134 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Edm Oilers at 9:00 ET. Toronto leads the North Division with 23 points, as the Maple Leafs' point total is alo tops in the NHL. Montreal's 20 points is good for second in the North (All-Canadian division), with Edmonton (18) and Winnipeg (17) checking in right behind the Canadiens. The Oilers welcome the Jets to Edmonton having gone 6-1-0 over their last seven games, while the Jets are 4-4-1 since a 4-1 start. Connor Hellebuyck will likely be back in net for Winnipeg on Monday, as he has started 11 of the Jets' 14 games (6-4-1) with a 2.36 GAA and .921 SP this season. Ehlers leads the Jets within nine goals (16 points) but Schifele tops the team with 18 points. Over on the Edmonton side, McDavid (9 G / 19 A / 28 points) and Draisaitl ( 8 G / 18 A / 26 points) are not only 1-2 in scoring for Edmonton but also own the top-two point totals in the entire NHL. Edmonton has limited opponents to just three goals over the last three games, with goalie Mike Smith making 38 saves in a 3-0 road shutout of the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday. Smith is expected to start Monday, as his return from injury has brought an immediate boost to Edmonton's goaltending. Smith has allowed just one goal on 66 shots faced (.985 save percentage) in his two starts this season (both wins). In comparison, Koskinen is just 6-7-0 (3.43 GAA / .895 SP). The return of Smith plus the 'firepower' of McDavid and Draisaitl make the Oilers the play in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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02-15-21 | Bulls v. Pacers -5.5 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Division Game of the Year (Central) is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Indiana Pacers ran into the Miami Heat in the first round of last season's playoffs and got swept 4-0 by the team that would make it all the way to the NBA Finals. As for the Chicago Bulls, they failed to even make the Orlando 'bubble' with a 22-43 record prior to the shut down. Even more troubling was the fact that last season's winning percentage (.338) was better than Chicago's previous full season, when the team went 22-60 (.268) and 27-55 (.329). The last three seasons have been quite a fall from grace for a franchise that had made 11 playoff appearances in its previous 13 seasons. Chicago opened the current season 7-8 but owned the NBA's best ATS record (11-4) during that 15-game start. However, Chicago enters this contest on a 3-7 SU & ATS run. Zach LaVine (28.1-5.4-5.3) and second-year PG White (15.6-4.6-5.4) form an outstanding backcourt, with LaVine entering this contest having led the Bulls in scoring in each of the team's previous SIX games (32.7 PPG!). Chicago's most recent game was a 125-106 loss in LA vs the Clippers and injuries have taken a toll on this team. The 6-10 Wendell Carter Jr. (12.8 & 8.0) hasn't played since Jan 18 because of a bruised right quad. SF Otto Porter Jr. (11.6 & 6.3) has missed SIX consecutive games with back spasms and the 7-0 Lauri Markkanen (19.1 & 6.1) has missed his four straight games with a right shoulder sprain. All FIVE of the above-mentioned players are first-round draft picks! Oladipo (20.0 PPG) is gone in a trade and his expected replacement (LeVert) has a medical issue that will keep him out for the remainder of the season plus SF Warren, who averaged 15.5 PPG in the season's 1st four games, has not played since. However, the Pacers but there is still enough talent to go around. PG Brogdon (21.1-4.3-6.3) and PF Sabonis (20.8-11.5-5.6) are playing at an All Star level plus center Turner averages 13.5 & 6.8, while leading the NBA in blocks (3.4 per). McDermott is now starting and averaging 13.3 PPG on 51.5 percent shooting. The Holidays, Justin (11.4 & 4.0) and Aaron (7.3) have both been solid plus Lamb's return from injury is a BIG deal. He has averaged 12.1 PPG (on 50.9% shooting) in his 14 games back since tearing his ACL last February. Indiana scored 41 points in the fourth quarter on Saturday night to rally to a 125-113 road win over the Atlanta Hawks and now look for a third straight win tonight against the Bulls, who as noted earlier, are FAR from 100 percent healthy. The Pacers have yet to go on a 'run' and even so, their 14-13 record gives them the East's current No. 4, just TWO games back of the second-seeded Bucks. Watch out for this Indiana team. Good luck...Larry |
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02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State -1 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida St at 7:00 ET.
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02-14-21 | Lakers v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET. The Los Angeles Lakers sit atop the Pacific Division at 21-6, two games up on the Clippers and four up on the Suns. Yes, LA has won seven in a row but things have hardly gone smoothly for the Lakers plus the defending champs also find themselves one game behind the blistering hot Utah Jazz (Jazz have won 18 of 19 and are 22-5). The Denver Nuggets earned the title of "Comeback Kids' in last season's playoffs in the 'bubble,' but opened the current season just 1-4. Denver then won 11 of 15 and ended January at 12-8. However, the Nuggets opened February with THREE straight losses, before posting back-to-back wins. They welcome the Lakers to Pepsi Center at 14-11, leaving them as the West's No. 7 seed and dangerously close to the postseason 'cut line!' The Lakers began a seven-game road trip back on Jan 21 and won the first three games, before losing 107-106 at Philly, ending their 10-0 start to the season on the road. LA finished that road trip 5-2 (winning the final two games) and returned home to beat the Nuggets 114-93 on Feb 4. FOUR more home wins followed, so LA will take a seven-game winning streak into Denver (more in a bit). LBJ (25.8-7.9-7.9) hasn't missed a game, while A.D. (22.9 & 8.6), the other Half of LA's "Dynamic Duo," has missed five. He was back on the court (Achilles' issue) on Friday and scored 35 points. The Lakers have gotten a HUGE boost from PG Schroder (14.1-3.8-4.4) and PF Harrell (13.5 & 6.3 in 25 MPG off the bench). Those off-season additions are joined by returning guard Caldwell-Pope (8.6 ) and SF Kuzma (10.7 & 6.0), who continue to be regular contributors. Denver is led by center Jokic (26.7-11.3-8.6) who gets better each season. He's surrounded by one of the NBA's deepest rosters, led by PG Murray (18.3-4.0-4.4). PF Porter (14.9 & 6.2) missed 10 games because of health protocols but is back. Swingman Barton (11.6-3.7-3.3), PG Morris (11.0 & 3.4 APG), PF Green (10.1 & 6.3 in 21 MPG off the bench), PF Millsap (10.4 & 5.2) and SG Harris (10.1) all score in double digits. All but Harris (adductor strain) are "good to go" in this one. I mentioned things not going smoothly for LA and let me explain. The Lakers returned from their road trip to beat the Nuggets 114-93 but trailed by 12 at the half, before outscoring Denver by 33 points in the second half. That game was followed by a double-OT win over then sad-sack Pistons, then back-to-back OT wins over OKC. A quick glance at Friday's 115-105 win over Memphis does NOT reveal that LA fell behind the Grizzlies 22-2 (yes, that's right!) to open the game! Denver HAS to view this as a "statement game" plus who knows when Anthony Davis' sore Achilles will act up and force him to miss a game? A.D> or not, I'm backing the small home dog. Good luck...Larry |
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02-14-21 | Blazers v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Dal Mavs at 7:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers have won THREE in a row and FIVE of their last six as they open a three-game road trip Sunday in Dallas, facing a Mavericks' team coming in on its own hot streak. The Mavericks have won FOUR straight and FIVE of six. The Blazers are 15-10 (current No. 5 seed in the West) and the Mavs are 13-14, still ONE game back of the No. 8 seeded Warriors. The Trail Blazers remain without CJ McCollum (26.7 PPG), who last played on Jan 16 due to a foot injury. Post players Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic (9.8 & 7.7 in 12 games) are also out with ankle and wrist injuries, respectively. Lillard (29.0-4.4-7.2) leads the way with Trent (14.8) starting in the palace of McCollum and Kanter (11.5 & 11.1) stepping in for Nurkic. Then there is Carmelo Anthony (13.5 PPG), who continues to provide excellent scoring off the bench. Dallas finally has its full complement of players on the roster again after the return of Maxi Kleber (7.0 & 5.3), who had missed 11 games in health and safety protocols. Starting alongside Doncic (28.5-8.7-9.4) and Porzingis (20.7 & 8.3) are guard Richardson (12.8) plus forwards Finney-Smith (8..8 & 4.9) and Kleber. SF Hardaway comes off the bench to average 16.8 PPG plus guards Brunson (11.7) and Burke (8.2) add more 'punch' off the bench. The Mavericks lost six straight from the end of January into the beginning of February as noted above, have won five of six, including FOUR straight. I had Dallas in its 143-130 Friday win over New Orleans and wrote the following, "It's hard for me to understand why Dallas is just 12-14 but there are REAL signs that things are about to change!" Dallas has averaged 130.5 PPG in its four-game winning streak and I'm 'riding' them again here! Good luck...Larry |
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02-14-21 | Norfolk State v. Morgan State -3 | Top | 68-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (MEAC) is on Morgan St at 2:00 ET. The Norfolk State head coach Robert Jones is in his eighth season coaching the Spartans and he opened the current season in much better shape than his situation last year. That team featured 10 newcomers and the Spartans finished just 16-15, although they were 12-4 in MEAC play. Norfolk St entered this season with a pair of excellent guards, as both Bishop (15.6 & 3.5) and Whitley (10.1 & 5.2) graduated. PG Devante Carter leads the team in scoring (15.6), rebounding (5.3) and assists (3.8), while fellow guards Bryant (11.2 & 4.1) and Hawkins (9.2 & 5.2) give him solid perimeter support. The Spartans' lone frontcourt performer of note is the 6-9 Mathews (9.2 & 5.2). Morgan St's Kevin Broadus took the job last season and it had been nearly a decade since his previous head coaching gig. His first season saw the team go 15-16 (9-7 in MEAC play) but the good news was, FOUR starters returned. Morgan St has two solid frontcourt players in the 6-9 Baxter (16.6 & 4.7) and the 6-8 Grantsaan (15.5 & 5.2), A four-guard rotation provides excellent depth on the perimeter led by Ware (15.5 & 5.2 off the bench) and starter Miller (13.4) plus a team-high 8.6 RPG. Norfolk St won at Morgan St 74-69 on Saturday, as Carter had 20 points, while Bryant and Hicks (7.9) each had 18. Bryant and Hicks combined to make SEVEN of 13 threes. Meanwhile, Morgan St's two big men were MIA. Grantsaan took just TWO shots (5 points / 4 rebounds), with Baxter scoring 13 points but shooting 3 of 14 from the The loss was Morgan St's first since Jan 17! the team had seen FOUR postponements since that game but was on a 5-0 run entering Saturday's contest. In this "instant payback" situation, expect the Bears to win and win HANDILY, as a win means Morgan St would move to 7-3 in the MEAC North, 1 1/2 games ahead of (including TWO in the loss column) Norfolk St. Double digit win expected! Good luck...Larry |
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02-14-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin +1 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Wisconsin at 1:00 ET. Michigan's Juwan Howard's first season as head coach saw his team open 7-0, then go 6-9 over its next 15 games. A six-game win streak followed but Michigan lost three of four before the shutdown (19-11 finish). However, Howard's sophomore year at Michigan has grabbed everyone's attention! 13-1 Michigan rose to No. 4 in the AP poll on Jan 24 but the basketball team (like every sport at Michigan) was put on a COVID-19 pause for two weeks. Idle since a Jan 22 win at Purdue (70-53), the Wolverines get back on the court Sunday at Wisconsin, ranked No. 3. Wisconsin has had a terrific basketball program for decades and Greg Gard is in his sixth season at Madison, having had FOUR 20-win seasons in his first five. The Badgers enter this game 15-6 (9-5 in the Big Ten) and currently ranked 21st in the latest AP poll. Gone from Michigan's team last season are PG Simpson (12.9-4.5-7.9) and the 7-1 Teske (11.6 & 6.7). 6-7 senior Livers led Michigan in scoring last season and is averaging 14.6 & 6.0 this season. The Wolverines have an experienced group but their leading scorer is 7-1 freshman Hunter Dickinson (15.1 & 7.2). Experience comes in guards Wagner (12.0 & 7.1), Brown (8.8), Brooks (8.8) and Smith (8.4). Michigan is averaging 79.7 PPG (35th) on 50.9% shooting (7th), while holding opponents to 65.4 PPG (61st) on 37,4% shooting (3rd). Wisconsin starts FIVE seniors, guards Trice (13.5-3.5-3.8) and Davison (8.9 & 3.3) plus the 6-10 Potter (11.8 & 6.1), the 6-11 Reuvers (9.5 & 3.7) and the 6-8 Ford (9.0 & 4.2). 6-5 freshman Davis (7.0 & 4.3) and 6-9 sophomore Wahl (5.6 & 4.3) both contribute off the bench. Wisconsin is scoring about nine PPG (70.8) less than Michigan but can match the Wolverines on the defensive end, allowing just 62.4 PPG (20th). Juwan Howard confirmed that Michigan's first practice after a mandatory 14-day break looked like the workout of a team that hadn't touched a ball in two weeks. "There were some turnovers being made," he said. "There was some excessive fouling. There were some wobbly legs." Isaiah Livers compared that practice to the start of a new season. One big difference in the start of an actual season and a restart to a pandemic season is that the Wolverines don't get to ease into things but instead are in Madison Sunday, then return home to face No. 25 Rutgers on Wednesday and back on the road to visit No. 4 Ohio State on Feb 21. Wisconsin is 11-2 at home and how CAN'T the Badgers remember getting routed 77-54 at Michigan back on Jan 12, a game that featured a mind-boggling 43-6 run spanning the halves by the Wolverines. Head coach Greg Gard said he is not focused on revenge games but a "W" here for Wisconsin would feel pretty 'sweet!' That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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02-13-21 | St. Mary's -0.5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Bailout Blowout is on St Mary's at 8:00 ET. The Saint Mary’s Gaels and the Pepperdine Waves meet in Malibu on Saturday night. St Mary's was 11-5 after a 67-63 win at San Francisco on Jan 23 but has NOT played since, as FIVE games have been postponed. Pepperdine checks in at 9-8, as the Waves welcome the Gaels to the Firestone Fieldhouse. Randy Bennett has been head coach at St Mary's since the 2001-02 season and entered this season with a 440-1982 (.707) record. The Gaels posted their 13th season of 20-plus wins last year, as they were 26-8 when COVID shut things down. Would the Gaels have gotten an NCAA bid? Bennett and his various teams know all about NCAA snubs, as SIX times in the previous 12 seasons, his team had been denied an NCAA bid despite seasons of 28, 25, 23, 21, 29 and 30 wins. No Kidding! Lorenzo Romar began his coaching career at Pepperdine in the late 90s but left for St Louis and then Washington. He led the Huskies to six NCAA berths in his first nine seasons but then NONE in his final six (was fired after a 9-22 season). He's back at Pepperdine but like in his first stint, has been basically a .500 coach. Is St Mary's too rested (rusty)? We'll see but the Gaels have "all hands on deck." Guards Kushe (14.3-3.6-5.4), Johnson (11.6) and Ducas (10.9) make up an excellent backcourt, plus the 6-10 Tass (10.3 & 5.0) and the 6-7 Fotu (8.7 & 4.4) are solid players. Pepperdine owns a terrific inside/outside duo in the 6-8 Edwards (17.1 & 7.1) and PG Ross (17.2-3.9-7.5) but not much else. St Mary's has been a quality program for the entire tenure on Bennett and ATS history is on the road team's side in this series (road team is 24-8-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings between these two teams).Also note that St Mary's is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games against a team with a winning home record. A win means a cover and I'm looking for St Mary's to NOT make me 'sweat' this one down the stretch. Good luck...Larry |
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02-13-21 | Bradley v. Missouri State -2.5 | Top | 58-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (MVC) is on Missouri St at 6:00 ET. Brain Wardle (currently in his sixth season at Bradley) entered the 2020-21 season off THREE straight 20-win seasons. That included back-to-back MVC tourney titles (2019 and 2020), marking the first time in school history that the Braves had accomplished that feat! With Loyola returning all five starters from last season, Bradley was not expected to be the MVC's top teams this season but Bradley was sure expected to be better than its current record of 11-11, including 5-8 in conference play. Dana Ford is in his third season at Missouri St and the team was expected to contend last year. However, the Bears finished 16-17 (9-9 in MVC play). The Braves 'limp' into Springfield, Mo. for tonight's game having lost SEVEN of eight (the two teams will meet again Sunday at JQH Arena). Bradley has a trio of solid frontcourt players in the 6-7 Childs (14.2 & 8.3), the 6-6 Henry (10.7 & 4.7) and the 6-9 Mast (7.1 & 5.4), The backcourt features Nolan (11.2), Tahvanainen (8.00 and East (8.4 & 4.0 APG). However, Missouri St counters with 6-5 forward Mosley (20.8 & 6.8) and the 6-8 Prim (14.8 & 8.9) plus four more solid contributors. Guard Black (9.7), the 6-8 Ridder (8.1) plus two JC transfers, Sharp (8.0) and Hervey (7.5 & 4.5). The Braves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Note that Missouri St didn't play its first game until Dec 16 but then opened 9-1. FOUR straight losses followed but those defeats came against 17-3 Loyola and 19-1 Drake! Should that be held against them? The Bears have rebounded with THREE straight wins (2-0-1 ATS) and are 12-5 overall, including 8-5 in MVC play (behind only Loyola and Drake. 'Cheap' price here! Good luck...Larry |
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02-13-21 | Villanova -2.5 v. Creighton | Top | 70-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Villanova at 5:00 ET. Creighton was ranked No. 11 in the AP's preseason poll (the highest in school history) and after a 3-0 start is up to No. 8 as the Bluejays visit No. 7 Kansas, which is 4-1. Greg McDermott is now in his 11th season at Creighton and after tying for the Big East title last season and finishing 24-7, Creighton was picked to finish second behind Villanova in a preseason poll of league coaches. Villanova's Jay Wright lost Saddiq Bey (16.1 & 4.7) to the NBA (was a first-round NBA draft pick) but four double digit scorers from last year's team returned. Villanova's preseason ranking of No. 3 was its highest since the 1995-96 season. The 13-2 Wildcats (8-1 Big East) are currently ranked No. 5 (COVID issues have cost the team numerous games) and will visit 15-5 Creighton (11-4 Big East), which is currently ranked No. 19. Villanova is one of the most dangerous teams in the country for many reasons but offensive balance is at the top of the list. All FIVE starters average in double digits. The 6-9 Robinson-Earl (16.1 & 7.3) leads in scoring and rebounding and is joined up front by the 6-7 Samuels (11.1 & 6.5). That duo is joined by a trio of double-digit scoring guards, PG Gillespie (14.5 & 5.2 APG), Moore (12.9 & 4.7) and Daniels (11.2). The 6-9 Swider comes off the bench to add 6.7 & 3.4. The Bluejays match up well vs 'Nova, with a trio of guards in Mahoney (14.5 & 4.7), PG Zegarowski (14.4-4.0-4.3) and Ballock (10.4). 6-5 SF Jefferson (12.2 & 5.2) and the 6-7 Bishop (11.6 & 5.6) get help up front from 7-0 freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner (6.7 & 3.9). This is a "big time" game and in the end, it's Villanova which will make the deciding plays. My bet says that Creighton is VERY good but not quite in the "same class" as 'Nova! Good luck...Larry |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns +1 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pho Suns at 3:05 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are playing their third contest of a four-game road trip when they visit the Suns this afternoon in Phoenix. Philly opened the trip with a win in Sacramento but lost 118-114 at Portland on Thursday and now finished the trip Saturday in Phoenix and Monday in Utah. The Jazz are currently the NBA's 'hottest' (best?) team, with a 212-5 record after winning 17 of their last 18. However, looking past the Suns would be a mistake, as Phoenix is 15-9 after winning SEVEN of eight, including FOUR straight. Joel Embiid used a strict offseason conditioning program and it seems to have worked well. He has missed five of the 26 games but has been dominant when on the court, averaging 29.4 & 10.9. PF Harris (20.1 & 7.4) joins him as a 20-point scorer plus while Simmons' scoring is slightly down (14.0 PPG), his overall game has been very good (8.3 RPG and 8.0 APG). Rookie Maxey (8.8) plus vets Danny Green (8.7) and center Dwight Howard (5.8 & 7.7 in 17 MPG) have each played all 26 games, while Seth Curry (12.8) is back healthy. However, Philly could be missing guard Milton (14.0) due to an ankle injury. The Suns surprised all with their 8-0 SU & ATS performance in the Orlando 'bubble' to end last season and made a key offseason move designed to put an end to the team's 10-season playoff drought by signing PG Chris Paul. The Suns opened 5-1 but in games played through Jan 27 were just 8-8. However, Phoenix is back playing well and enters this contest winners of SEVEN of its last eight and at 15-9, the Suns currently own the West's No. 4 seed. Devin Booker missed a handful of games with a hamstring injury but he's back (23.8-3.7-4.3 on the season). Paul missed his first game of the season last Monday but returned the next game to score 28 points in a win over Milwaukee. The vet is averaging 16.9-4.5-8.1 on the season (EXACTLY as Phoenix had hoped. 6-11 center Ayton (14.1 & 12.6) has been both consistent AND healthy, delivering 15 double-doubles. Former first round picks Bridges (14.5 & 5.5) and Johnson (11.3 & 3.8) have made HUGE strides this season. SF Crowder was another key off-season addition and is averaging 10.1 & 5.0. Philly is a dominant 11-2 at home but just 7-6 on the road and as noted, the Suns are playing VERY well. An "under the radar move" should be noted, as PF Frank Kaminsky was inserted into the starting lineup four games ago with the Suns going 4-0 SU and ATS. Kaminsky has averaged 11.8 & 6.8 in those four games plus in the last two, has also handed out 13 assists. I'm 'riding' the Suns to another "W." Good luck...Larry |
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02-13-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Drake +4.5 | Top | 81-54 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener of the Month is on Drake at 12:00 ET. Bradley has won the last two MVC tourneys (1st time in school history by the way) but Loyola returned all five starters from last year's 23-11 team and Porter Moser's Ramblers were the preseason pick to win the conference in the 2020-21 season. Drake head coach Darian DeVries led the Bulldogs to 24 and 20-win seasons in his first two seasons at Drake but was a middle-of-the-pack preseason pick in the MVC. However, as the two teams get set to meet for the first time this season (and play again on Sunday vs each other), Loyola has met expectations with a 17-2 record (12-1 MVC) but Drake has surprised all by going 19-1 (10-1 MVC). Loyola Chicago's main focus this weekend will be to keep Drake from supplanting it atop the MVC standings, a task made more difficult as BOTH games will be played in Des Moines at Drake's Knapp Center. Loyola will be playing as a ranked regular-season team for the first time in 36 years and riding its longest winning streak in three seasons, the No. 22 Ramblers look for an 11th straight victory on Saturday, with the last time the school has won at least 11 in a row was when it reached the Final Four in 2018. 6-9 senior center Krutwig (15.5 & 6.1) is the lone Loyola player in double digits but the Ramblers are a well-balanced team with SEVEN more players getting 13-plus minutes of playing time, including FIVE getting 21-plus minutes. Loyola is shooting 52.1 percent during its 10-game winning streak (that dates to its 58-48 win at Indiana State on Jan 11), while holding opponents to an average of 51.3 PPG on 38.2-percent shooting. Drake has NINE players that have participated in each of the team's 20 games this season. The top performers are the 6-6 Hemphill (14.1 & 6.3), PG Penn (12.4 & 5.6 APG) and guard Wilkins (10.1). Joining those three in the starting lineup are the 6-6 Murphy (9.4 & 5.1) and the 6-10 Brodie (7.2 & 7.3). While Loyola is currently "The King of the Hill" in the MVC, it was Drake that was 18-0 and ranked 25th in the country before shooting a season-low 36.5 percent during a 74-57 loss at Valparaiso last Sunday. However, Drake bounced back behind 18 points each from Tremell Murphy and Joseph Yesufu (8.8) and a 47.6-percent team-shooting effort in Wednesday's 80-59 home win over Northern Iowa. Drake's a MONEY-MAKING 15-3 ATS on the season and I'm taking them as a home dog in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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02-12-21 | Bucks +2 v. Jazz | Top | 115-129 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play is on the Mil Bucks at 9:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks have owned the NBA's best regular season in each of the last two seasons, going 60-22 and 56-17. However, the Bucks have flopped in the playoffs each time. Milwaukee had won FIVE in a row (had scored at least 123 in each of its victories while winning by an average margin of 20.8 points) before its Wednesday game in Phoenix. The Bucks scored 124 points that game but allowed 125 to the Suns. Milwaukee is now 16-9, second-best in the East (1 1/2 games back of Philly which is 18-8) but its winning percentage of .640 is nowhere near the .748 of the last two regular seasons. The Utah Jazz lost back-to-back games on Jan 5 and 6 and were just 4-4. However, beginning on Jan 8 (more on this game later), the Jazz would rip off 11 consecutive wins (also going 11-0 ATS) before losing 128-117 at Denver on Jan 31. Utah did not let that loss linger, as the Jazz have opened February with FIVE straight wins and the team's lone ATS loss in that span was when they beat the Pistons by 12 points while laying 12 1/2-points! Doing the math, the Jazz welcome the Bucks to Salt Lake City's Vivint Arena 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS their last 17 games! The Bucks starting-five has been excellent, led by forwards Antetokounmpo (28.1-11.1-5.6) and Middleton (20.7-6.0-6.2). Jrue Holiday (16.4-4.8-5.4) has made all forget about Bledsoe plus center Lopez (10.7 & 5.2) is rounding into form while DiVincenzo (9.7 & 4.5) has been a solid complement in the backcourt to Holiday. The 6-10 Portis averages 11.1 & 7.5 in about 22 minutes off the bench, while guards Forbes (9.4), Augustin (6.0) and Connaughton (5.5 & 3.7) give this team excellent backcourt depth. The Bucks came VERY close to bringing a six-game winning streak into Utah but lost 125-124 to the Suns on Wednesday, when Giannis Antetokounmpo's jumper went awry at the buzzer. Antetokounmpo finished with 47 points to lead the Bucks, who were playing without Jrue Holiday. The guard missed his second game in a row due to the NBA's health and safety protocols for COVID-19. According to head coach Mike Budenholzer, "He's in a good place and he's taking care of himself," the Bucks coach said about Holiday. "But he has an eye on the team, too." Forbes has taken his place in the starting lineup and has averaged 16.0 PPG! The Jazz might also be without one of their key players in PG Mike Conley (16.5-3.7-6.8), who has missed two consecutive games with a strained right hamstring and is considered day-to-day. However, Like Milwaukee, Utah has the depth needed to 'cover' Conley's absence. Stepping into the starting lineup has been Ingles, who is averaging 10.7-3.6-4.6 on the season. All Star guard Mitchell (24.0-4.3-5.1) leads Utah in scoring and the trio of Bogdanovich (15.9 & 4.0), Gobert (13.4 & 13.5) and O'Neale (7.9 & 6.6) complete the starting-five. Sixth-man Clarkson (17.4 & 4.3) has been terrific all season and the return of PF Favors (6.0 & 5.7) has been a nice bonus. When these teams met last season in Utah, the game was decided on the final play. Joe Ingles faked a pass to his right and then threw it to Bogdanovic near the left corner, one of his favorite spots. Ingles raised both his arms before the three-pointer even settled into the net, as Utah beat the Milwaukee Bucks 103-100. The defeat added to Milwaukee's woes in Utah, where the bucks have lost 18 consecutive games since their last road win over the Utah Jazz back on Oct 30, 2001. So why take the Bucks in this one? Getting back to Utah's Jan 8 win that began the team's current 16-1 SU (14-2 ATS) run came in Milwaukee, as the Jazz won 131-118. Utah shot 50.5% for the game, including making 25 three-pointers on 53 attempts! The Bucks shot just 44.9 percent, including an awful 31.0 percent on 42 three-point attempts. Milwaukee is off a hard-luck loss and HAS to view this contest as a "statement" game. Milwaukee is the NBA's top-scoring team (121.4 PPG) plus ranks second in both overall FG percentage (49.4%) and three-point percentage (40.2%). I had Denver over Utah on Jan 31 (Utah's ONLY loss in its last 17 games) and I'm "all over" Milwaukee in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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02-12-21 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -3.5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Clemson at 8:00 ET. It's an ACC showdown Friday night between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-7 / 5-5 ACC) and the Clemson Tigers (12-5 / 6-5 ACC) at Clemson's Littlejohn Coliseum. Both teams are at or slightly above .500 in league play heading into the season's home stretch. Ga Tech head coach Josh Pastner is in his fifth season with the Yellow Jackets, after SEVEN years at Memphis. His first four seasons have not gone well (just 65-67) and the Yellow Jackets look to be headed for another .500-like season. Brad Brownell came to Clemson for the 2010-11 season, after so-so stints at UNC-Wilmington and Wright St (not a single NCAA bid) and has produced a modest four, 20-win seasons and just two NCAA berths in his tenure. Ga Tech had one game canceled and then three in a row postponed due to COVID before returning to the court Jan 20 at home against Clemson. Ga Tech routed Clemson 83-65 in that one (stood at 7-3) but has since lost FOUR of six, including having its 11-game ACC home winning streak snapped in a 57-49 loss Wednesday night to league-leading Virginia. Ga Tech has a solid five-man rotation but the Yellow Jackets have little depth. Returning PG Alvarado (17.6-3.7-4.3) and SG Devoe (13.4 & 4.7) have been excellent plus returning 6-9 big man Wright (16.1 & 7.2) present an excellent trio. 6-7 USC transfer Usher (11.4 & 4.3) helps out up front plus VMI transfer Parham (7.5 & 3.2) adds to the team's backcourt depth. Clemson returned four starters from last season's team plus Fordham transfer Nick Honor became eligible. The Tigers are led by 6-8 senior forward Aamir Simms (12.6 & 6.2) and senior guard Clyde Trapp (7.3 & 5.6). Simms was a preseason All-ACC first-team and Trapp is surrounded by guards Honor (9.0) and Dawes (8.4). The 6-8 Tyson (6.0 & 3.5) helps Simms up front. Depth is provided by guard Newman plus forwards Baehere and Hall (trio adds 14 PPG). Clemson was 9-1 and ranked 12th when it welcomed Virginia to Littlejohn Coliseum on Jan 16. The Tigers were coming off an extended pause due to a positive COVID-19 test and subsequent contact tracing. The 11-day break clearly did not turn out well, as UVa routed Clemson 85-50. That was the first of three straight losses in which the Tigers averaged 58.7 PPG (included that 83-65 loss at Ga Tech). However, Clemson has won THREE of four since. The Tigers will be seeking to avenge that 18-point loss at Georgia Tech on Jan 20 and why won't the Tigers "do just that?" Clemson is 8-1 SU at home (lone loss to now-No. 9 UVa), while Ga Tech is 1-4 on the road, with that lone win coming at 4-11 Nebraska (Tech is 0-4 on the ACC road). Clemson has stepped up its defensive efforts recently and the Tigers rank second in the league in scoring defense, allowing 62.6 PPG which ranks 20th nationally. Clemson gets the "W" plus the COVER! Good luck...Larry |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2 | Top | 130-143 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Dal Mavs at 7:30 ET. The Mavs went 43-32 last season, ending a three-year postseason drought and led by "All-World" Luka Doncic and 7-3 Kristaps Porzingis, expected to be playoff contenders for years to come. However, Dallas is just 12-14 so far and while the Mavs are just TWO games back of the final playoff spot in the West, they are also just ONE game better than the OKC Thunder, who own the second-worst record of the West's 15 teams. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans come to Dallas 11-13 (in a virtual tie with the Mavericks), despite the presence of Zion Williamson (23.8 PPG on 59.9% shooting with & 7.0 RPG) and Brandon Ingram (23.7-5.5-4.6). The interesting pregame note is that Dallas has won three in a row and four of its last five. As for New Orleans, the Pelicans had won FOUR in a row before losing 129-116 in Chicago on Wednesday. The Pelicans were completing a back-to-back Wednesday in Chicago, after a 130-101 home victory against Houston on Tuesday. They held an eight-point halftime lead before the Bulls outscored them 40-14 in the third quarter. The Bulls made a franchise-record 25 three-pointers and it wasn't the first time New Orleans has had trouble defending three-pointers. The game against Chicago was the EIGHTH game in which the Pelicans have allowed 18 or more three-pointers. Ingram (see above) came to New Orleans in the Anthony Davis trade with LA, along with Lonzo Ball (13.9-4.4-4.7) who starts at guard alongside Bledsoe (13.2) and Hart (8.5* 7.8) who comes off the bench. Center Steven Adams (8.3 & 9.3) is the fifth starter. Dallas finally has its full complement of players on the roster again after the return of Maxi Kleber (7.1 & 5.3) on, who had missed 11 games in health and safety protocols. Starting alongside Doncic (27.8-8.7-9.3) and Porzingis (19.7 & 8.3) are guard Richardson (12.9) plus forwards Finney-Smith (8.5 7 4.9) and Kleber. SF Hardaway comes off the bench to average 17.2 PPG plus guards Brunson (11.6) and Burke (8.4) add more 'punch' off the bench. There was even a Willie Cauley-Stein 'sighting,' who head coach Rick Carlisle had not played in the last two games, in Wednesday's 118-117 win over the Hawks. Cauley-Stein (6.0 & 4.7) had 14 points (on 5-of-6 shooting) and six rebounds in 23 minutes. It's hard for me to understand why Dallas is just 12-14 but there are REAL signs that things are "about to change." New Orleans was scheduled to visit Dallas for the first meeting this season on Jan 11 but that game was postponed because of COVID-19 issues with the Mavericks. Be advised that the Mavs swept the FOUR-game series with the Pelicans last season. Same old, same old here! Good luck...Larry |
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02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Toronto Raptors were the 2019 NBA champions and last season, entered the postseason as the East's No. 2 seed with a 53-19 record, despite losing Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers as a free agent. Note that the Raptors' record last season put them just 2 1/2-games back of the Bucks and was a half-game BETTER than the West's No. 1 seed, and eventual NBA champion Lakers! However, the Raptors opened the current season 2-8 (3-7 ATS). Toronto was still just 7-12 through Jan 29 but visits Boston winners of FIVE of its last six to reach 12-13. The Boston Celtics opened the current season 8-3 but are just 4-8 since and at 12-11 have fallen behind the East's top-two teams. Philly is 18-7 and Milwaukee is 16-9 plus Brooklyn is 15-12. The Celtics are now the No. 4 seed and are just ONE game up on Toronto and Indiana! Boston is back home, after losing the final two contests of a five-game road trip to finish 2-3. These rivals met Jan 4 in Tampa (current 'home' of the Raptors), winning 126-114. The Raptors routed the Wizards 137-115 on Wednesday, as they made 19 three-pointers, Kyle Lowry leading the way with five. Norman Powell scored 28 points and Pascal Siakam added 26 for Toronto, which led by as many as 24 points in the dominant victory. The offense is growing," Toronto head coach Nick Nurse said. "We're not going through too many lulls." He's right about that, as Toronto has surpassed 120 points in each of their past five games. VanVleet (20.7-4.3-6.4) and Lowry (17.0-5.7-6.7) comprise a dominant guard duo plus fellow guard Powell adds 15.8 PPG. PF Siakam (20.2-7.8-4.6) is now a bonafide All Star but Toronto has played its past EIGHT contests without the 6-7 Anunoby (14.6 & 5.9), who has been sidelined by a calf strain. Nurse said it was "50-50" whether the forward would be available against Boston. The Celtics won the first meeting between the two teams (see above) but victory came during a five-game winning streak for Boston that preceded its recent rut. The team was without star forward Jayson Tatum for two weeks due to COVID-19, and his top scoring partner, Jaylen Brown, missed two games with a knee injury before returning to score 33 points in Monday's loss against NBA-leading Utah. Boston remains without Smart (13.1 & 6.1) due to a calf strain but Tatum (26.8-6.9-4.1) and Brown (26.7-5.6-3.4) are quite a one-two 'punch!' PG Walker (15.0-3.5-4.3) is rounding into shape and I expect Boston to get back to its winning ways. The red-hot Raptors should get Boston's "full attention" and it's my bet that the Celtics are up to the task. Toronto's not just playing the second night of a back-to-back but this marks Toronto's SIXTH straight road game. The Raptors last played at 'home' (Tampa) back on Jan 31, meaning Toronto's been "on the road" for ALL of February. Lay the "more than reasonable" number. Good luck...Larry |
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02-11-21 | Troy State v. South Alabama -6 | Top | 70-73 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conf Game of the Year (Sun Belt) is on South Alabama at 7:00 ET. The Troy Trojans and the South Alabama Jaguars meet in Mobile, Al at the Mitchell Center on Thursday night. Troy is 10-10 overall and South Alabama 12-8. Both schools play in the SBC-East, with the Jaguars sitting at 6-5 (just a half-game back of 6-5 App St) and the Trojans checking in at 4-6 (two games back). These schools will meet again tomorrow tonight. in Troy. The Trojans had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 79-64 home loss to Georgia Southern this past Saturday. 6-6 forward Stampley (11.8 & 7.1) and the 6-9 Zay Williams (11.5 & 8.7) are a solid forward tandem. They are joined in double digits by freshman guard Woods (11.6), while three more players average more than 20 minutes of playing time. Waters chips in 8.2 PPG, Miles 6.7 points and Desmond Williams 6.2 points. South Alabama lost four starters from last season's 20-win team but head coach Richie Riley has proven at Nicholls St and now here at South Alabama, that he weave a large group of newcomers into a unit. 6-1 guard Michael Flowers (22.1-4.1-3.6) came from Western Michigan and leads the team in scoring. Sophomore guard Locure (14.8 & 5.1) and senior guard Pettway (9.4) are two of just THREE returning players but both have been major contributors. The 6-8 Goncalves (9.0 & 6.0) and the 6-7 Iorio (7.9 & 3.4) are two transfers making 'noise,' plus there is 6-5 freshman West (5.2 & 6.3). South Alabama was just 8-8 (2-5 in SBC) through Jan 23 but has won FOUR in a row (also 4-0 ATS) to get within real striking distance in the East. Knowing it's off to Troy tomorrow night for another game with the Trojans should have the Jaguars primed for a big effort here at home, where they are 9-3. Meanwhile, Troy is just 2-8 on the road. Lay the points1 Good luck...Larry |
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02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -3.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* 'Happy Hour' Best Bet is on Minnesota at 5:00 ET. Richard Pitino is in his eighth season at Minnesota. He led the Gophers to the NIT championship in his first season (2013-14) but over the last six seasons, Minnesota has made just two NCAA appearances (2017 and 2019), while going a combined 56-71 (.441) over the other four. The Gophers opened 9-1 in Pitino's 8th season and were 10-2 after 12 games. However, Minnesota has lost FIVE of seven to enter this game at 12-7 (fell out of the top-25 back on Feb 1. Purdue's Matt Painter is in his 16th season with the Boilermakers but his team was just 16-14 last season, coming off a four-year run of averaging 27.3 wins per season. The Boilermaker's opened a modest 7-5 but in winning SIX of their last eight (all in the rugged Big Ten, which has SEVEN top-12 schools), entered the top-25 at No. 24 on Feb 1 (same day Minnesota dropped out). Purdue lost 61-60 at Maryland last week and then beat Northwestern 75-70 and held onto its No. 24 ranking this past Monday. Painter got his 350th career win in the win over Northwestern and welcomed back shooting specialist Sasha Stefanovic (10.6) after three games out due to COVID-19 protocols. Stefanovic scored just four points, but his return is important. Painter's lone loss of note from last season's team was the 7-3 Haarms (8.6 & 4.6), who went to BYU as a graduate transfer. 7-4 freshman Edey (7.7 & 4.3) has been an able replacement for Haarms, accounting for 12 points and 11 rebounds vs Northwestern. 6-10 junior Williams (15.4 & 9.6) has been the team's best player plus senior PG Hunter (9.4-2.6-3.3) has been steady. Freshman guards Newman (9.7) and Ivey (8.8) have also been regular contributors. Minnesota PG Carr (19.9-4.1-5.4) ranks with the best in the nation and has been aided by THREE transfers, 7-0 Liam Robbins (13.2 & 7.2) from Drake, the 6-6 Gach (8.6 & 4.7) from Utah and the 6-8 Johnson (8.6 & 4.7) from Western Michigan. Plus, don't dismiss returning junior guard Kalescheur, who's adding 9.0 PPG, or freshman guard Mashburn (5.7 PPG). Bottom line here is that while Minnesota is 0-6 (1-5 ATS) on the road, the Gophers have been near 'Golden' at Williams Arena, going 12-1! One of those road losses was at Purdue (Jan 30), a game in which Purdue trailed by as much as 14 points but outscored Minnesota 51-27 in the second half of an 81-62 win over the then-No. 21 Golden Gophers. Minnesota gets this rematch 'RIGHT!" Good luck...Larry |
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02-10-21 | Bucks v. Suns +5.5 | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Underdog of the Month is on the Pho Suns at 10:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks have owned the NBA's best regular season in each of the last two seasons, going 60-22 and 56-17. However, the Bucks have flopped in the playoffs each time. Milwaukee visits Phoenix tonight on a five-game winning streak and the Bucks are now 16-8, second-best in the East (1 1/2 games back of Philly) but their winning percentage of .667 is nowhere near the .748 of the last two regular seasons. The Phoenix Suns surprised all with their 8-0 SU & ATS performance in the Orlando 'bubble' to end last season and made a key offseason move designed to put an end to the team's 10-season playoff drought by signing PG Chris Paul. The Suns opened 5-1 but in games played through Jan 27 were just 8-8. However, Phoenix is back playing well and enters this contest winners of SIX of its last seven. At 14-9, the Suns currently own the West's No. 4 seed. The Bucks are 3-0 on a six-game road trip after posting a 125-112 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Monday and have won a season-best FIVE straight games. Milwaukee leads the NBA in scoring (121.3 PPG) plus ranks second in FG percentage (49.4) and third in three-point percentage (40.1). The offense has been pretty special during the winning streak, as the Bucks have scored at least 123 in each of their victories while winning by an average margin of 20.8 points. The Bucks starting-five have been excellent, led by forwards Antetokounmpo (27.3-11.1-5.6) and Middleton (20.8-56.1-6.0). Jrue Holiday (16.4-4.8-5.4) has made all forget about Bledsoe plus center Lopez (10.7 & 5.1) is rounding into form while DiVincenzo (9.7 & 4.4) has been a solid complement in the backcourt to Holiday. The 6-10 Portis averages 11.0 & 7.4 in about 22 minutes off the bench, while guards Forbes (9.1), Augustin (6.0) and Connaughton (5.8 & 3.9) give this team excellent backcourt depth. Devin Booker missed a handful of games with a hamstring injury but he's back (23.5-3.6-4.3 on the season). Paul (16.4-4.7-8.5) has delivered and 6-11 center Ayton (14.0 & 12.8) has been both consistent AND healthy. Former first round picks Bridges (14.4 & 5.5) and Johnson (11.4 & 3.8) have made HUGE strides this season. The Suns beat the Cavs 119-113 at home on Monday, despite Chris Paul (hamstring) missing his first game of the season. Paul is questionable to play Wednesday. However, E'Twaun Moore moved into the starting lineup while Devin Booker picked up more of the playmaking responsibilities. It didn't affect Booker's play, as he poured in a season-high 36 points, matched his season best of five 3-pointers and added eight assists. As for Moore, he had a season-best 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting while playing 40 minutes. Milwaukee has an issue at PG as well, as Jrue Holiday didn't play at Denver and it appears he will be sidelined for the rest of the road trip, if not longer, due to health and safety protocols. Milwaukee didn't clarify anything per Holiday's status but teammate Khris Middleton made comments after Monday's game that suggested the 30-year-old tested positive for COVID-19. The 119 points scored against Cleveland were the Suns' most since a 130-126 overtime loss against the Nuggets on Jan 22. Booker has topped 20 points in four of five games since returning from a hamstring injury and center Deandre Ayton contributed 15 points and 16 rebounds against Cleveland, giving him 15 double-doubles in 23 games this season. Two hot teams and with luck, Paul may play for Phoenix (we know Holiday won't play for the Bucks). I'm 'jumping all over' the home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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02-10-21 | Rutgers v. Iowa -6 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Iowa at 7:30 ET. Fran McCaffrey came to Iowa City from Siena, where he led the Saints to THREE straight NCAA appearances and a 77-26 record. He's been at Iowa since the 2010-11 season. He's led Iowa to SIX 20-win seasons the last eight seasons, getting four NCAA bids (would have been five last year but the NCAA tourney was canceled). Iowa returned all FIVE starters from last year, including the Preseason P-O-Y. (Luka Garza). The Hawkeyes were ranked 5th in the preseason poll and opened 12-2 (ranked No. 4 in the Jan 17th poll). However, the Hawkeyes lost at home to Indiana (81-69 ) on Jan 21, the start of the team's current 1-4 slide. Another second-half lead evaporated for Iowa during a Sunday loss at Indiana, same as it did during a Jan 21 setback against the Hoosiers and two other defeats since. Iowa is now down to No. 15 in the latest AP poll with a 13-6 overall record, including a 7-5 mark in the Big Ten. Visiting Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Wednesday will be Rutgers, a team trending in the opposite direction. Steve Pikiell spent 11 years at Stony Brook, winning 20-plus games in his final five seasons. He led the Seawolves to an NCAA berth in 2015-16 and a 26-7 record. His first three seasons at Rutgers saw the Scarlet Knights go just 15-18, 15-19 and 14-17. However, Rutgers was 20-11 last season before the year was shut down. Rutgers won its first five games by double digits and opened league play with a 74-60 win at Maryland on Dec 14. The Scarlet Knights improved to 6-0 by pulling out a 91-88 win over then-No. 13 Illinois on Dec 20 (rose to No. 11 in the AP poll on Dec 21). Rutgers then lost SIX of seven, including FIVE in a row. However, a four-game winning streak has them back in at No. 25. Rutgers has a STRONG backcourt in Harper (16.8 & 6.0), Young (14.3), Mathis (10.5) and Baker (10.4). Mulcahy has played more recently in the backcourt, adding 5.9-4.1-3.4. The 6-11 Johnson (8.6 & 8.9) has been solid all season inside plus 6-11 freshman Omoruyi (4.2 & 4.1) has returned from a knee injury to play in the last six games. Garza (25.5 & 8.4) is joined in Iowa's starting lineup by senior guards Wieskamp (14.6 & 6.5) and Bohannon (10.1 & 4.5 APG) plus fellow guards Fredrick (8.7) and PG Conor McCaffrey (3.6-3.2-4.1). The 6-11 Nunge (7.5 & 6.5) comes off the bench, as do the 6-8 Murray (6.8 & 4.7) and the 6-9 Patrick McCaffrey (5.2 & 2.9). With time winding down on the regular season, Iowa senses the urgency and realizes the importance of reversing course. "When you're losing four out of five and each one you had a lead, that just sucks, and it's unfortunate," Luka Garza said. "Right here is down the stretch. These next eight games, that's the last stretch. So I think what we do now is going to show the character of this team, and hopefully we'll put some wins together and get on a roll towards the Big Ten tournament." Rutgers enters on a four-game conference winning streak (the longest since the program joined the Big Ten for the 2014-15 season) but NONE of those wins have come over a ranked opponent. Fredrick is likely out for Iowa but I'm still laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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02-10-21 | East Tennessee State v. The Citadel +7.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (Southern) is on The Citadel at 7:00 ET. The East Tennessee State Buccaneers and The Citadel Bulldogs meet Wednesday in Southern Conference action at the McAlister Field House in Charleston South Carolina. The Buccaneers have won 24,27, 25 and 30 games the last four seasons but head coach Steve Forbes left to take over at Wake Forest for Danny Manning. His top assistant Jason Shay took over but all FIVE starters from last year's team were gone. The situation at The Citadel was quite different, as the Bulldogs' head coach Duggar Baucom entered his sixth season in Charleston with a 51-106 record the previous five, after last year's team went 6-24, including 0-18 in conference play. However, the Bulldogs returned FOUR starters. This season's ETSU team is loaded with transfers, including the Brewer brothers. Ladarrius is a guard who came from SE Mo St and leads the team by averaging 15.4 PPG. His 6-9 brother Ty (from SE La St) adds 9.0 & 4.1. 6-6 redshirt freshman Monsanto averages 13.3 PPG and his 7.1 RPG is a team-high, while PG Sloan (a graduate transfer from Kansas St) adds 10.6 PPG and a team-high 4.4 APG). 6-5 SF Hayden Brown is averaging 20.6 points and 10.7 rebounds (both team highs), while 6-6 guard Kaiden Rice is averaging 18.5 points and 4.3 rebounds for The Citadel. Guard Fletcher Abee is the third double-digit scorer (11.4 & 3.6) plus fellow guard Moffee just misses double digits at 9.9 PPG. ETSU is the better team (won 112-84 at home back on Jan 30) but while the Buccaneers are averaging 70.9 PPG, the Bulldogs are averaging 85.0 PPG (14 points higher). What's more, The Citadel is 9-3 SU at home this season (remember, this team won just SIX games all of last season), including going 6-2 ATS. In Brown and Rice (see stats above) the Bulldogs will own the two-best players on the court. In East Tennessee's home win over The Citadel, the Buccaneers scored 112 (31 points higher that the team's seasonal average) by shooting 53.6% from the floor (shoot 44.6% on the season), including 52.2% on threes (35.4%) plus made 86.7% of their free throws (make 68.3% on the season). Upset Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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02-09-21 | Celtics v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Utah Jazz at 10:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the current season 8-3 but are just 4-7 since and at 12-9 have fallen behind the East's top-two teams. Philly is 17-7 and Milwaukee is 16-8. The Celtics opened their current five-game road trip with a 111-107 win at Golden St (Tue) but then lost 116-111 at Sacramento the following night. However, despite missing Jaylen Brown (26.4 & 5.5) and Marcus Smart (13.1 & 6.1 APG), they beat the Clippers 119-115 Friday night but then lost 100-91 at Phoenix on Super Bowl Sunday. Boston concludes its five-game road trip tonight in Salt Lake City against the Utah Jazz. The Jazz ripped off 11 straight wins both SU & ATS beginning on Jan 8 and not ending until they lost 128-117 in Denver on Jan 31. However, the Jazz welcome Boston to Vivint Arena having won FOUR in a row since that loss to Denver (lone non-cover was a 12-point win as a 12 1/2-point favorite!). Jayson Tatum (27.0 & 7.1) has been back the last seven games (was out due to COVID protocols) and has 'not missed a beat' but Boston is just 3-4 in those games. PG Kemba Walker (15.9-3.4-4.0) didn't get on the court until Jan 17 and in his nine games, the Celtics are only 3-6. Smart (calf) is out for a while and Brown is questionable at best for this game (knee). Tristan Thompson (7.1 & 8.6) and Theis (7.1 & 8.6) usually start up front for Boston but Brad Stevens has recently used some different players up front (not much luck). Utah PG Conley (16.5-3.7-6.8) has had an excellent season but could sit with hamstring injury. However, the Jazz inserted Ingles (10.1-3.6-4.5) into the starting lineup in Utah's last game and it was "business as usual. All Star guard Mitchell (23.5-4.3-4.9) leads Utah in scoring and the trio of Bogdanovich (15.9 & 3.8), Gobert (13.3 & 13.5) and O'Neale (7.9 & 6.8) complete the starting-five. Sixth-man Clarkson (17.5) has been terrific all season and the return of Favors (6.1 & 5.8) has been a nice bonus. This will be Boston's FIFTH road game in eight days and will be without Smart and quite possibly Brown. Recapping, Utah has won 15 of its last 16, going 14-2 ATS! I see NO reason to 'step in front of that train,' especially at this reasonable price. Good luck...Larry |
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02-09-21 | Penn State v. Michigan State -3 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on Michigan St at 7:00 ET. Penn St was 21-10 last season but the Nittany Lions went through some turmoil right as practices started when head coach Pat Chambers resigned in late October following an investigation into inappropriate conduct. Penn State is playing this season with interim head coach Jim Ferry and the Nittany Lions arrive in East Lansing just 7-8 (4-7 in the Big Ten) but on an upswing having won FOUR of their last six. Tom Izzo's Michigan St team was ranked 13th in the AP preseason poll but lost its first three Big Ten games for the first time since 2001-02. At 9-7 overall and 3-7 in the Big Ten, Michigan State is in serious jeopardy of seeing its streak of 22 consecutive appearances in the tournament come to an end. The Nittany Lions surely miss All-Big Ten forward Lamar Stevens (17.6 & 6.9) but the Nittany Lions have three players averaging in double figures; the 6-7 Izaiah Brockington (14.6 & 4.8) and the 6-7 Seth Lundy (11.7 & 4.3) plus guard Myreon Jones (14.7). Guard Sam Sessoms comes off the bench to add 9.5 PPG, with the 6-9 Harrar (8.7 & 8.3) and PG Wheeler (5.5-3.9-3.6) starting alongside Jones and the two 6-7 forwards. Michigan St lost its two best players from last season's 22-9 team to the NBA Draft, as PG Winston (18.6 & 5.9 APG) was taken by the Wizards and the 6-8 Tillman (13.7 & 10.3) by the Grizzlies. The team's top-two players so far this season have been 6-6 returning forward Aaron Henry. (14.0-5.8-3.6) and 6-9 junior forward Joey Hauser, a transfer from Marquette, who averages 10.5 PPG and a team-high 7.1 RPG. Sophomore PG Watts (8.7 & 3.1 APG) has stepped in for Winston plus veteran guards Langford (9.9) and Loyer (4.9) join him on the perimeter. Two returning 6-7 forwards, Brown (7.4) and Hall (4.9 & 4.9) give MSU a deep bench. The Spartans snapped a four-game losing streak with a 66-56 home victory over Nebraska but hardly looked very good, committing 22 turnovers and shooting 33.3 percent in the second half. Michigan State has a lot of work to do to get back into the NCAA Tournament picture and that's not a bad thing, according to coach Tom Izzo. "There is a little pressure on us and I kind of like that," Izzo said. "I think this team needs to have a little pressure on them. Maybe I need to have a little pressure on me." I believe Penn St will play the perfect foil in this game, as all of the teams recent wins have come at home. Penn State is 0-6 in Big Ten road games this season. Michigan St doesn't need a blowout win here to cover, just a solid win. Lay the small number. Good luck...Larry |
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02-09-21 | Syracuse v. NC State -2 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on NC State at 6:30 ET. It's 10-6 Syracuse (4-5 in the ACC) at 8-7 NC State (4-6 in the ACC) tonight from PNC Arena in Raleigh. The two schools met Jan 31 in Syracuse, with the Orange winning 76-73. Jim Boeheim is in his 45th season at Syracuse, while Kevin Keatts took over at NC State for Mark Gottfried beginning in the 2017-18 season, after leading UNC-Wilmington to 25-8 and 29-6 records in his final two seasons (both teams earned NCAA tourney bids). He's won 21, 24 and 20 games his first three seasons in Raleigh but it's been a tough year so far, losing games to COVID protocols plus recently losing the team's best player (Devon Daniels) for the season. All FIVE Orange starters average in double digits (all average 30-plus MPG too) but Syracuse has little depth. The 6-7 Guerrier leads in scoring (15.8) and rebounding (9.3), SF Griffin checks in at 15.5 & 6.9 plus the 6-10 Dolezag adds 10.9& 5.5. The backcourt is Buddy Boeheim (14.2) and PG Girard (10.8 & 3.8 APG). SF Richmond (6.8 & 3.1) comes off the bench as the team's lone contributing reserve. NC State lost leading scorer Bryce (13.3 & 6.3) plus PG Johnson (12.8-4.4-6.8) from last year's team plus will go the rest of the season without Devon Daniels (16.5-5.1-3.2). "I quickly appreciated the tenacity and relentlessness he brought into the gym every day," Wolfpack coach Kevin Keatts said, recalling when Daniels joined the program after transferring from Utah. "Devon built himself into one of the premier players in the ACC with that tireless work ethic." With the loss of Daniels, the Wolfpack are left with just two double digit scorers, 6-7 wing Hellems (13.3 & 5.3) and the 6-10 Funderburk (11.8 & 5.4), who comes off the bench. Other significant contributors are the 6-11 Bates (9.9 & 5.9) plus guards Allen (7.0), Moore (7.0), Hayes (6.7) and Beverly (6.3). NC St almost won at Syracuse and enters this game 6-2 SU at home. Meanwhile, Syracuse opened its Atlantic Coast Conference road schedule with an impressive 38-point win over Boston College but the team's last four road trips have not gone well. The Orange lost their second road game by six at North Carolina on Jan 12 but in losses to Pittsburgh, Virginia and Clemson, the average margin of defeat has been 20 points! This past Saturday, Syracuse shot a season-worst 30 percent in a 78-61 loss at Clemson. What's more, Saturday's loss came against the ACC's worst offensive team as Syracuse's 'famed' 2-3 zone allowed a season-worst 52.9 percent from the floor. Syracuse made only 5 of 20 attempts from three-point range and are shooting just 19.7 percent (13 of 66) from behind the arc in their last three road games and only 31.3% on the season (277th in the nation). Even without Daniels, NC St wins this "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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02-08-21 | Bucks -4 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Bucks at 9:35 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks have owned the NBA's best regular season in each of the last two seasons, going and. However, the Bucks have flopped in the playoffs each time. Milwaukee visits Denver tonight on a four-game winning streak and the Bucks are now 15-8, second-best in the East (1 1/2 games back of Philly) but their winning percentage of .652 is nowhere near the .748 of the last two regular seasons. The Nuggets were the "Comeback Kids" of last season's playoffs but opened the current season just 1-4. However, Denver responded with an 11-4 run. However, the Nuggets are off back-to-back losses and at 12-10, are SIX games back of the West's No. 1 seed (Utah) but just ONE game better than the West's No. 10 seed. The Bucks starting-five have been excellent, led by forwards Antetokounmpo (27.1-11.2-5.8) and Middleton (20.4-5.8). Jrue Holiday (16.4-4.8-5.4) has made all forget about Bledsoe plus center Lopez (10.6 & 5.0) is rounding into form while DiVincenzo (9.5 & 4.3) has been a solid complement in the backcourt to Holiday. The 6-10 Portis averages 11.2 & 7.2 in about 22 minutes off the bench, while guards Forbes (8.8), Augustin (6.1) and Connaughton (5.9 & 4.0) give this team excellent backcourt depth. Denver center Nikola Jokic had 47 points in Denver last win (home to Utah on Jan 31) and then in a loss at Sacramento two games later, scored a career-high 50 points. He's having a spectacular season, averaging 27.2-11.5-8.6. PG Murray (19.0-4.0-4.5) had a breakout postseason and continues to play at an All Star level, The 6-10 Porter (15.2 & 6.4) has missed 10 games but is now back, giving Denver quite a trio. Denver also features as much quality depth as any team, as SIX other players are averaging between 7.1 and 11.0 PPG. However, SG Harris (10.1), the team's best perimeter defender, is out with a left adductor strain and Murray is listed day-to-day with a knee problem (he missed Denver's last game). |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on Kansas at 9:00 ET. Bill Self's Kansas team was ranked No. 1 in the final AP poll after last season's shutdown. Despite losing key players like PG Dotson (18.1-4.1-4.0) and the 6-10 Azubuike (13.7 & 10.5) this years' team opened No. 6 in the preseason poll. Kansas lost its season-opener to No. 1 Gonzaga (Gonzaga has yet to lose) but heading into its Jan 12 game at Oklahoma St, the Jayhawks were 10-2 and still ranked No. 6. However, a 75-70 loss at Stillwater was the beginning of Kansas losing FIVE of its next seven. The Jayhawks are now 12-7 (6-5 in Big 12) and when the new AP poll comes out this afternoon, will almost assuredly fall out of the top-25, ending its run of 231 straight weeks as a ranked team. 12-5 Oklahoma St (5-5 Big 12) is coming off a 75-67 double-OT at home over then-No. 6 Texas on Saturday. Likely "one-and-done" standout Cade Cunningham scored 10 points in the final five minutes of regulation and overtime on Saturday; The 6-8 freshman is averaging 18.3-6.1-3.5 and is one of just two players averaging in double digits for Mike Boynton's Cowboys. He's joined by the 6-9 Boone (9.7 & 5.3) plus guards Likekele (10.1 & 7.1), Anderson (9.6 & 3.9) and Bryce Williams (8.2) in the starting lineup. Two freshmen are making 'noise' off the bench in the 6-7 Moncrieffe (9.7 & 5.5) and guard Walker (9.8 & 2.5). Kansas has FIVE players averaging between 9.9 and 14.1 PPG. Guard Aybaji (14.1 & 3.9) leads the way, followed by the 6-10 McCormack (1.6 & 5.98) and the 6-7 Wilson (12.3 & 7.4) up front, plus guards Garrett (10.2-4.7-3.7) and Braun (9.9 & 5.1). Each of the Jayhawks' starters scored in double figures while the bench contributed just FOUR points on Saturday, but Self offered a mixed review following a 91-79 loss at then-No. 17 West Virginia. We had some starters who had good moments without question," he said, "but I wouldn't say we had starters who played well. The other half to playing good offense is being able to guard your man." Kansas allowed West Va to make 52.4 percent on three-pointers and never led. Oklahoma State is the only team to sweep a Big 12 season series against Kansas with Self as coach, doing so in 2017-18 but the Cowboys are off the double-OT win vs Texas in which FOUR Cowboys played 40-plus minutes. Kansas should be HIGHLY-motivated here and it's 'Rock Chalk, Jayhawk!" Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 130 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET. Super Bowl 55 will not be a rematch of the first-ever Super Bowl (Kansas City/Green Bay on Jan 15, 1967) but one would be hard-pressed to argue against the fact that this is one of the most-anticipated matchups of all-time. Tom Brady left New England and Bill Belichick in his rearview mirror and while the Pats failed to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008 by going 7-9 (Belichik's only other losing season in New England came in his first season with the Pats in 2000), Brady led one of the NFL's biggest losers (Tampa Bay) to its second-ever Super Bowl. Brady is now in his 10th Super Bowl (six wins in his first nine tries), where the G.O.A.T. will take on the defending champion Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes who many (most?) believe is the "G.O.A.T in Waiting." Mahomes and the Chiefs ended last season with NINE straight wins, including a 3-0 run in the playoffs. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 14-1 record through 16 weeks in 202 and then sat out Week 17 since KC had clinched the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their four first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin over the Browns. Mahomes was KO'd in the 3rd quarter but KC held on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes wasn't cleared to play until Friday for e the AFC championship game and while the Bills led 9-0 after one quarter, the Chiefs would outscore the Bills 38-6 to take a commanding 38-15 lead by the mid-4th quarter (38-24 final). Mahomes threw for 325 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, after completing 21 of 30 for 255 yards and one TD (no INTs) and a rushing TD against the Browns. TE Kelce caught 105 passes for 1,416 yards (11 TDs) during the regular season and has added 21 catches and three TDs in two playoff games. WR Hill caught 87 passes for 1,276 yards with 15 TDs (plus two rushing TDs) in the regular season, while catching 17 balls in two playoff games to average 16.6 YPC. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire (803 yards) has been a non-factor in the playoffs but Darel Wiliams has run for 130 yards on 5.0 YPC. Brady had two TD passes and 381 yards vs Washington but in wins over the Saints (54.5% for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and Packers (55.6% for 280 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs), has not produced vintage Brady efforts. RB Aaron Jones has been limited to 78 yards on 3.4 YPC by injury (ran for 978 yards on 5.1 YPC and 7 TDs in the regular season) but Fournette has "turned back time" rushing for 211 yards and two TDs, while catching 14 passes with one TD. SIX players have caught Brady's seven playoff TD passes. Evans has two TDs (10 catches / 17.3 YPC), Godwin matches Fournette with 14 postseason catches (15.9 YPC / 1 TD) and TE Brate has 11 catches and one TD. Tampa Bay's defense has been superb in winning THREE straight road games. It held Washington to 289 yards, the Saints to 294 yards (forced four turnovers, including three INTs of Brees) and then shutting down Green Bay's running game (67 yards) while sacking Rodgers FIVE times. Yes, Tampa Bay is the first team to ever host a Super Bowl game but in the "Year of COVID," is that really an edge? Brady's career and especially his success in the postseason is without peer but his efforts against the Saints and the Packers were FAR from impressive (see above). Meanwhile, Mahomes has put up remarkable numbers in his first three full seasons as a starter, going 37-8 with 114 TD passes and just 23 INTs in attempts. He's 6-1 in his seven career postseason games, throwing 17 TDs and just two INTs for a 109.8 QB rating. It's MORE than fair to point out that prior to KC's 38-24 win in the AFC championship game that the Chiefs were on a 1-8 or 0-8-1 ATS run but it's equally fair to counter with the fact that Mahomes enters the Super Bowl having gone 25-1 SU in his last 26 starts (including the postseason). Tampa Bay's defense will NOT be able to contain Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense. Mahomes has a LONG way to go to surpass (if ever can) Brady's career accomplishments but this Super Sunday belongs to the 25-year-old. Good luck...Larry |
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02-07-21 | Boise State -4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Boise St at 4:00 ET. Boise's Leon Rice is in his 11th season with the Broncos and has produced EIGHT seasons of 20-plus wins through his first 10 seasons. This year's team looked like one of his best, as the Broncos opened 13-1 (9-0 in MWC). However, Boise lost last week at Colorado St on a Wednesday, before bouncing back to win at Fort Collins on Friday. This week, Boise faced a similar situation, playing in Reno against Nevada on Friday and Sunday. The Broncos lost 74-72 Friday night and now need a similar bounce back or they'll fall to 1-3 in league play (Utah St is 11-2 and CSU 11-3). Nevada's head coach is Steve Alford who is in his second season at Reno. After a terrific playing career, he's had success at Missouri St, Iowa, New Mexico and UCLA, although he fell out of favor abruptly when he was fired on December 31, 2018. It marked the first time the program had ever made a coaching change in the middle of the season. Nevada was 19-12 (12-6) last season and is 13-7 (8-5) entering this game. FOUR of Boise's starters average in double figures, led by 6-9 guard Alston (16.5 & 3.8). Fellows guards Shaver (13.1 & 4,6) and Dennis (10.2-3.3-3.4) plus 6-7 forward Kigab (13.6 & 6.) round out that quartet. The fifth starter is the 6-10 Armus (6.8 & 7.4), while guard Doutrive (9.3), the 6-8 Akot (8 & 3.9) and guard Rice (7.5) contribute off the bench. Nevada is led by the excellent guard duo of Sherfield (18.4-3.8-6.1) and Cambridge (15.2 & 4.4). The Wolf Pack have depth up front in the 6-9 Meeks (9.5 & 5.9), the 7-0 Washington (9.4 & 5.6), the 6-10 Hymes (6.7 & 3.7) and the 6-7 Coleman (4.9 & 2.7). Nevada trailed by five at the half on Friday but scored 46 points in the second half and ended the game a blistering 52.6% from the floor. Even so, the Broncos still had a chance for a buzzer-beater at the end but came up short. These back-to-back games between league opponents (either two straight days or two in three days) have often seen the loser of the first rebound to win the second. Let me note that Boise State is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 after an ATS loss. The road favorite gets the win AND cover! Good luck...Larry |
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02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* East/West Conf Game of the Month is on the Pho Suns at 2:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the current season 8-3 but are just 4-6 since and at 12-9 have fallen behind the East's top-two teams. Philly is 17-7 and Milwaukee is 15-8. The Celtics opened their current five-game road trip with a 111-107 win at Golden St (Tue) but then lost 116-111 at Sacramento the following night. However, despite missing Jaylen Brown (26.4 & 5.5) and Marcus Smart (13.1 & 6.1 APG), they beat the Clippers 119-155 Friday night. Yes, the Clippers played without Paul George but LA did shoot 51.9% from the floor! The Phoenix Suns surprised all with their 8-0 SU & ATS performance in the Orlando 'bubble' to end last season and made a key offseason move designed to put an end to the team's 10-season playoff drought. by signing PG Chris Paul. The Suns opened 5-1 but in games played through Jan 27 were just 8-8. However, Phoenix is back playing well and enters this contest winners of FOUR of its last five. At 12-9, the Suns currently own the West's No. 4 seed. Jayson Tatum (27.3 & 7.3) has been back the last six games (was out due to COVID protocols) and has 'not missed a beat.' However, as noted at the top, Brown and Smart are sidelined. Booker missed a handful of games with a hamstring injury but he's back (23.1 PPG on the season). Paul (16.4-4.7-8.5) has delivered and 6-11 center Ayton (13.9 & 12.8) has been both consistent AND healthy. Former first round picks Bridges (13.9 & 5.4) and Johnson (11.3 & 3.7) have made HUGE strides this season. Coming off its surprising win over the Clippers, the less than 100% Celtics face a tough spot here against a Phoenix team beginning to look like a real playoff contender. "The Price is Right" on the Suns. Good luck...Larry |
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02-07-21 | Iowa -3 v. Indiana | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Iowa at 12:00 ET. Fran McCaffrey came to Iowa City from Siena, where he led the Saints to THREE straight NCAA appearances and a 77-26 record. He's been at Iowa since the 2010-11 season. He's led Iowa to SIX 20-win seasons the last eight seasons, getting four NCAA bids (would have been five last year but the NCAA tourney was canceled). Iowa returned all FIVE starters from last year, including the Preseason P-O-Y. (Luka Garza). The Hawkeyes were ranked 5th in the preseason poll and opened 12-2 (ranked No. 4 in the Jan 17th poll). However, the Hawkeyes lost at home to Indiana (81-69 ) on Jan 21, the start of the team's current 1-3 slide. Archie Miller spent six years at Dayton, winning 20-plus games in five seasons. Over his final four at the school, the Flyers averaged 25.5 wins per season and went to four straight NCAA tourneys. He got the Indiana job beginning with the 2017-18 season and was just 16-15 and 19-16. However, last year's team was 20-12 before the season was "called off." However, Indiana has NOT built on last season's improvement (despite that win in Iowa), as the Hoosiers come in 9-8 overall (*4-6 in the Big Ten). Garza (25.9 & 8.7) is joined in Iowa's starting lineup by senior guards Wieskamp (14.4 & 6.4) and Bohannon (10.0 & 4.6 APG) plus fellow guards Fredrick (8.7) and PG Conor McCaffrey (3.7-3.3-4.2). The 6-11 Nunge (7.8 & 5.6) comes off the bench, as do the 6-8 Murray (6.6 & 4.6) and the 6-9 Patrick McCaffrey (5.4 & 3.0). Gone from last year's Indiana team are Devontae Green (13.5 & 8.4) who graduated and the 6-7 Justin Smith (10.4 & 5.2), who transferred to Arkansas. This year's team is led by the 6-9 Jackson-Davis (20.1 & 9.1) and the 6-8 Thompson (9.8 & 6.5) up front plus in the backcourt, it's sophomore Franklin (12.7 & 4.4), senior Durham (10.8-3.6-3.0) and junior Phinisee (7.8). Both teams need a win badly. Indiana comes in off THREE straight home losses and is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Meanwhile, not only is Iowa the MUCH better team, the Hawkeyes are 15-3 ATS (83%) in their last 18 after an ATS loss! Road fave is the play! Good luck...Larry |
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02-06-21 | UCLA v. USC -3 | Top | 48-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on USC at 10:00 ET. It's the "Battle 4 LA" on Saturday night, as No. 21 UCLA (13-3 / 9-1 Pac 12) visits the Galen Center to take on 14-3 USC (8-2 Pac 12). Mick Cronin made NINE consecutive NCAA Tourney appearances at Cincy, as his Bearcats posted a 235-78 (.751) record in that span. He moved to Westwood last season and his Bruins got better as the year progressed and were playing their best ball when the season was shut down. Andy Enfield led Florida Gulf Coast to a 26-11 season in his second at the school, making a Sweet 16 appearance. That gave him the chance to "move on up" to USC but his first two seasons were HUGE disappointments (11-21 and 12-20). However, the Trojans have won 21-plus games in FOUR of the last five seasons, including a 22-9 mark last season. UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging between 9.3 and 12.6 PPG. PG Campbell (11.5 & 6.1 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Jaquez (12.6 & 5.9), the 6-6 Juzang (11.9) and the 6-6 Bernard (9.3 & 5.0). Up front it's the 6-9 Riley (10.6 & 6.0) and the 6-10 Hill (6.5 & 5.9). USC saw its top-five scorers leave after the 2020 season. Onyeka Okongwu left for the NBA, Elijah Weaver transferred to University of Dayton plus seniors Jonah Mathews, Nick Rakocevic, and Daniel Utomi all graduated. However, Enfield recruited a "super frosh" in 7-0 freshman Evan Mobley plus brought in SIX transfers. Evan Mobley has wasted little time in showing his value for USC, averaging 16.8 & 9.0. He joins his brother Isaiah (a 6-10 sophomore), who has added 9.5 & 7.2. Peterson (10.2-5.1-3.4) is a 6-8 swingman from Rice and joins guards Eaddy (Santa Clara) and White, a grad transfer from Utah Valley St. Eaddy is averaging 12.6 PPG and White 8.0 & 3.5. Guard Goodwin (6.3 & 4.0) comes off the bench to give USC a solid six-man rotation. UCLA's last four games have been three wins by five, four and five points plus a one-point OT loss to Stanford. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in that stretch and in their 57-52 Jan 30 win over Oregon State, they scored their lowest points of the season. The Trojans captured their third straight victory Tuesday, beating Stanford 72-66 on the road 72-66 (note: UCLA's lone Pac 12 loss this season came against the Cardinal). USC is 9-1 SU at home (lone loss was to Colorado back on Dec 31) and I'm not sure it helps UCLA at all having not played since last Saturday (Monday's game with Oregon was postponed as a result of COVID-19 protocols). USC spoiled UCLA's regular-season Pac-12 title hopes on the final day of competition last season, when Jonah Mathews sank a three-pointer with one second left for a 54-52 victory. My bet says USC beats UCLA again here (1st of two meetings down the stretch), to join them atop the Pac 12 at 9-2. Good luck...Larry |
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02-06-21 | Warriors v. Mavs -4 | Top | 132-134 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout of the Month is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. The injury-plagued Golden State Warriors go for a two-game sweep of the host Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night. Golden State was forced to play small with its three centers and top reserve forward injured. However, they outshot and even outrebounded the Mavericks in a 147-116 romp in the opener of this three-day, two-game set on Thursday. Kelly Oubre Jr, who has been a disappointment this season, scored a career-best 40 points, as all five Golden St starters (plus two reserves), scored in double digits. Dallas stayed with the Warriors at the half (actually led 76-74) but while the Mavs were able to score just 40 points in the second half (20 points each in the 3rd and 4th quarters), the Warriors had a 73-point second half! The Mavs went 43-32 last season, ending a three-year postseason drought and led by the "All-World" Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, expected to be playoff contenders for years to come. Dallas had lost NINE of 11, including SIX consecutive games SU & ATS, before winning 122-116 in Atlanta on Wednesday. However, Dallas lost for the 10th time in its last 13 games when it got blown out at home by the Warriors Thursday night (see above). Golden St not only outshot Dallas on Thursday (57.3%, including 51.2% on threes while making 23 of 27 FTs), the Warriors also outrebounded them 45-42. Rookie center Wiseman (12.2 && 65.1) is out for a while with a wrist injury and PF Paschall (10.0 PPG off the bench) is at best, day-to-day. Curry (28.2-5.5-6.1), SF Wiggins (17.7 & 4.7) and Oubre (13.3 & 5.5) will be the lone double digit scorers on the court tonight for the Warriors. Meanwhile, Dallas finally has its full complement of players on the roster again after the return of Maxi Kleber (6.6 & 5.5) this past Monday, who had missed 11 games in health and safety protocols. Starting alongside Doncic (27.2-8.8-9.4) and Porzingis (19.6 & 8.2) are guard Richardson (12.5) plus forwards Finney-Smith (8.6) and Kleber. SF Hardaway comes off the bench to average 17.2 PPG plus guards Brunson (11.8) and Burke (9.1) add more 'punch' off the bench. Hard to understand why Dallas is just 9-14 (2nd-worst record in the West), while the Warriors are 12-10 (current No. 7 seed). However, as Bill Parcells once opined, "You are who your record says you are." That, I'm NOT 'buying' into Dallas owning a worse record by year's end than Golden St. Quick turnaround AND "payback" delivers a convincing Dallas win tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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02-06-21 | South Dakota v. South Dakota State -5.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (Summit League) is on South Dakota St at 8:30 ET. The South Dakota Coyotes were 2011 last season but lost FOUR starters from that team. Meanwhile, coming off a 22-10 season, the South Dakota State Jackrabbits returned all FIVE starters and were favored to win the Summit League. South Dakota opened the season just 1-6 but has now won 10 in a row, including the last nine in Summit League action. South Dakota St opened 5-3 (losses were to West Va, St Mary's and to South Dakota in a Dec tourney that didn't count as a league game), but then FIVE in a row (all at home) to reach 10-3 (4-0 in Summit play). However, the Jackrabbits hosted the Coyotes last night and got beat 64-56. Neither team shot well but South Dakota St's effort was embarrassing. The home team shot 31.7% from the floor (25.0% on threes) and made just 11 of 22 free throws. South Dakota's 6-6 guard Umude (the team's only returning starter) had a modest 14 & 7 (averages 20.1 & 7.3 on the season) but PG Plizuweit (16.4-4.4-4.1) had 19 points, four rebounds and five assists. No other guard averages as much as eight PPG plus the lone frontcourt player averaging more than 3 PPG is the 6-8 Kamateros (7.2 & 4.2). In comparison, SD St has a trio of guards averaging in double digits in Freidel (17.7 & 4.3), Scheierman (13.9 PPG & a team-best 9.7 RPG) and Arians (11.1 & 4.5). The 6-7 Wilson (15.2 & 5.6) is the best frontcourt player, joined by the 6-8 Dentlinger (7.4 & 3.9) and the 6-8 Appel (6.8). Sizing up the two teams, I'm not sure why the Coyotes are own the better record. In this quick rematch (something that's become a staple this season), I'm backing the home team to bounce back. SD St had won FIVE straight at home (averaging 89.0 PPG) before scoring 56 points in last night's loss. The team shooting 48.1% from the floor on the season (40.4% on threes) and 70.5% on FTs, shot 31.7, 25.0 and 50.0% in those categories last night. NO deja vu here! Good luck...Larry |
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02-06-21 | UCF v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Tulsa at 6:00 ET. Johnny Dawkins is in his fifth season as UCF's head coach and is coming off a 16-14 season. If only the current season was going as well. The not-so-Golden Knights are 4-9, (2-8 AAC) as they head to Tulsa for another rescheduled game. UCF suffered a 27-point loss at Memphis on Monday and then met the Tigers again Wednesday in a regularly scheduled game. After trailing early by 14 points the Knights got within four in the second half before falling 75-61. This game against Tulsa was originally slated for Jan 9, before the Knights ran into COVID-19 troubles and contact tracing, pushing the game back a month. Frank Haith has had stops at Miami-Fl and Missouri before coming to Tulsa for the 2014-15 season. His teams have averaged 19.3 wins per year in his first six seasons, including going 21-10 before COVID shut down the 2019-20 season. The Golden Hurricane are 9-7 (6-5 ACC), having lost THREE of their last four. Wednesday's 65-63 home defeat to SMU was a heartbreaker. Tulsa was down 64-52 with 3:25 left but a 10-1 run got them to within three. With one second remaining, Austin Richie was fouled on a three-point attempt but made just one of three free throws of a 64-62 loss. UCH has a trio of guards in double digits. Mahan (14.1 & 5.3) leads the way, along with Green (12.4) and Perry (12.3). 6-6 freshman Adams (9.5 & 4.2) is really the lone frontcourt player of note. and the Mustangs grabbed the rebound to notch the win. Tulsa is led by guards Rachal (15.1 & 6.6) and Joiner (10.2-4.5-3.4) plus FOUR more backcourt players combine to chip in about 25 PPG. The 6-9 Idowu (8.8 & 4.4) is the team's best frontcourt player. Tulsa is a strong defensive team, holding opponents to 64.1 PPG (43rd) on 39.5% shooting (23rd). UCF somehow won 86-74 at FSU back on Dec 19 but has lost all SIX road games since, going 1-5 ATS. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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02-06-21 | Wisconsin +4.5 v. Illinois | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 2:30 ET. Wisconsin has had a terrific basketball program for decades and Greg Gard is in his sixth season at Madison, having had FOUR 20-win seasons in his first five. The Badgers enter this game at Illinois 14-5 (8-4 Big Ten) and ranked 19th, while the Fighting Illini are 12-5 (8-3 in Big Ten) and ranked 12th. Brad Underwood made a big 'splash' at S.F. Austin and then made a one year 'pit stop' at Oklahoma St, before landing in Champaign-Urbana. The Fighting Illini were just 14-18 and 12-21 in his first two seasons but had a breakout year in going 21-10 before last season was shut down. Wisconsin had shot 39.4 percent over a 4-3 stretch before making 48.1 percent of its shots during Tuesday's 72-56 home win over Penn State. Despite leading scorer D'Mitrik Trice being held without a point, the Badgers prevailed after losing two of the previous three, including 81-71 at Penn State last weekend. Wisconsin starts FIVE seniors, guards Trice (13.3-3.4-3.9) and Davison (9.3 & 3.3) plus the 6-10 Potter (12.3 & 6.6), the 6-11 Reuvers (9.5 & 3.7) and the 6-8 Ford (9.4 & 4.4). 6-5 freshman Davis (6.8 & 4.4) and 6-9 sophomore Wahl (5.7 & 4.3) both contribute off the bench. Illinois opened No. 8 in the preseason poll and while it hasn't been smooth sailing, it enters this contest playing some of its best basketball of the season. The Illini bounced back from consecutive home defeats to Maryland and then-No. 21 Ohio State by rolling over Penn State by 14, beating then-No. 7 Iowa 80-75, and rallying from a seven-point halftime hole to win 75-71 at Indiana in overtime on Tuesday. Illinois features one of the top guards in the nation in Dosunmu (21.2-6.1-4.6) plus 7-0 center Cockburn (16.8 & 10.2) has built on a successful freshman season. Dosunmu is joined in the backcourt by veterans Frazier (10.2), Curbelo (8.8 & 4.6 APG), Frazier and Williams (5.5 & 5.4) plus freshman Miller adds 8.7 PPG. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (5.7 & 2.7) rounds out the main contributors. However, here's the rub. The Fighting Illini are attempting to end a SEVEN-game home losing streak skid to the Badgers. Illinois did snap a 15-game overall losing streak to Wisconsin with a 71-70 road win last season but I'll be taking the points with Wisconsin, which has won 15 of its last 16 meetings with Illinois. Good luck...Larry |
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02-06-21 | Syracuse v. Clemson -2.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Clemson at 2:00 ET. 10-5 Syracuse plays at 11-5 Clemson Saturday afternoon in a matchup of Atlantic Coast Conference teams looking to strengthen their postseason position. Both teams enter the game at .500 in ACC play, with the Orange at 4-4 and Clemson at 5-5. Syracuse has won THREE of its last four games, including a come-from-behind victory against North Carolina State last Sunday, when the Orange won by three points after trailing by nine points at the half. Clemson was 9-1 and ranked 12th when it welcomed Virginia to Littlejohn Coliseum on Jan 16. The Tigers were coming off an extended pause due to a positive COVID-19 test and subsequent contact tracing. The 11-day break clearly did not turn out well, as UVa routed Clemson 85-50. That was the first of three straight losses in which the Tigers averaged 58.7 PPG. However, the Tigers have won TWO of their last three, beating then-No. 25 Louisville and North Carolina. Jim Boeheim has been at Syracuse since right after the end of the Civil War and he's worried about his team's inconsistent play. "We're playing the guys that are playing the best in practice," Boeheim said. The Orange have little depth but all five starters are averaging more than 30 minutes. The 6-7 Guerrier leads in scoring (16.3) and rebounding (9.5), SF Griffin checks in at 15.7 & 7.1 plus the 6-10 Dolezag adds 11.0 & 5.5. The backcourt is Buddy Boeheim (14.8) and PG Girard (10.2 & 3.0 APG). Syracuse ranks 258th in the nation on three-point shooting (31.6 percent) but Boeheim insists his players are getting good looks from the perimeter. "We have to make those shots," he said. Brad Brownell came to Clemson for the 2010-11 season, after so-so stints at UNC-Wilmington and Wright St (not a single NCAA bid) and has produced a modest four, 20-win seasons and just two NCAA berths in his tenure. However, he returned four starters plus Fordham transfer Nick Honor is now eligible. The Tigers are led by 6-8 senior forward Aamir Simms (12.3 & 5.9) and senior guard Clyde Trapp (7.6 & 5.5). Simms was a preseason All-ACC first-team and Trapp is surrounded by guards Honor (8.6) and Dawes (8.4). The 6-8 Tyson (6.4 & 3.6) helps Simms up front. Clemson can have trouble scoring at times but its defense always comes to play, allowing 62.7 PPG to rank 26th in the nation. The Tigers are 7-1 at home (lone loss to UVa) and Syracuse is 1-4 on the road (won at BC back on Dec 12) and is 0-4 ATS in its four road losses. Clemson is the play at home. Good luck...Larry |
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02-05-21 | Celtics v. Clippers -5 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* ESPN Game of the Month is on the LA Clippers at 10:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the current season 8-3 but are just 3-6 since and not playing nearly as well as the Eastern Conference's top-three teams, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. The Celtics will be in Staples Center tonight to play the middle contest of a five-game road against the LA Clippers. The Clippers began the season with a season-opening 116-109 over the Lakers but after 10 games, were just 6-4. However, the Clippers have won 11 of 13 since to reach 17-6 and are now tied with the Lakers for the second-best record in the West (Utah Jazz are 17-5). The Celtics opened their current road trip with a 111-107 win at Golden St (Tue) but then lost 116-111 at Sacramento the following night. Jayson Tatum (26.8-7.3-4.1) has been back the last five games (was out due to COVID protocols) but while he's averaged 26.6 PPG in that span, Boston has gone just 2-3. He joins Jaylen Brown (26.4-5.5-3.6) to give Boston a 'Dynamic Duo' but the Celtics played Wednesday night without Kemba Walker (rest), Marcus Smart (calf) and rookie Payton Pritchard (knee). Smart (13.1 & 6.1 APG) and Pritchard (7.7) will NOT play tonight and the status of Walker (15.0 & 4.3 APG) is at best, questionable. BTW...Walker got a late start to the season due to an injury and in the seven games he's played, the Celtics are just 2-5! The Clippers won SIX consecutive home games through the middle of January then began a six-game road trip. The trip started with stars Kawhi Leonard (26.2-5.3-5.3) and Paul George (24.4-6.2-5.5) in COVID-19 health and safety protocols. They each missed two games on the trip but had a combined 60 points in a 121-99 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday to end the trip 4-2. New additions Ibaka and Batum have each missed just ONE game, while starting the other 22. Ibaka is averaging 12.3 & 6.7, while Batum adds 10.2 & 4.7. PG Patrick Beverley (8.1 & 4.4 APG) will miss his seventh straight game (right knee soreness) but the Clippers have managed without him because of the team's excellent depth. In the backcourt it's Williams (9.4), Kennard (8.1) and Jackson (8.0) plus up front it's SF Morris (11.1 & 3.6) and center Zubac (7.6 & 6.3). Expect the Los Angeles Clippers to get reacquainted with their home floor seamlessly and win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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02-05-21 | Bruins v. Flyers +117 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Phi Flyers at 7:05 ET. The Toronto Maple Leafs' 17 points lead all NHL teams but just ONE point behind the Leafs are the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers with 16 points. However, the two East Division rivals have already met three times this season with the Bruins winning all THREE! Philadelphia couldn't hold a two-goal lead and fell 4-3 in overtime to the Bruins on Wednesday and sure should be focused on snapping that current frustrating trend against Boston. The Flyers committed four penalties, including an interference call on Scott Laughton that allowed Patrice Bergeron to score the game-winning power-play goal in overtime. The Bruins converted those four power plays into THREE goals. David Pastrnak had a hat trick, showing no ill effects of offseason hip surgery (five goals and two assists in three games back). His linemates have been red-hot all season. Bergeron has 15 points (six goals / nine assists) and Marchand has 14 points (six goals / eight assists). Philly captain Claude Giroux (10 points, including NINE assists) played in his 900th career game Wednesday to become the third Flyer in franchise history to accomplish the feat along with Bill Barber and Bobby Clarke. However, Philly's "Big Three" consists of forwards van Riemsdyk (5 G / 9 A / 14 points), Voracek (3 G / 8 A / 11 points) and Hayes (6 G / 5 A / 11 points). Backup goalie Elliott has started three games and won all three (1.95 GAA & .941 SP) but Hart (3-2-1 / 3.61 GAA / .896 SP) has started all three vs Boston, allowing 14 goals. I'm not running (coaching) the Flyers but doesn't Elliott HAVE to get the start tonight? I'm "all in" on the Flyers Good luck...Larry |
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02-04-21 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5 | Top | 93-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Game of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 10:05 ET. Los Angeles completed a 5-2 road trip by beating the Atlanta Hawks 107-99 on Monday. Anthony Davis scored 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting with three blocks, and LeBron James contributed 21 points, nine assists and seven rebounds for the Lakers. LA returns home winners of 10 of 13 games, giving them a 16-6 overall record. Visiting Staples Center tonight will be the "Comeback Kids" of last season's playoffs, the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets opened the current season just 1-4 but come to LA having gone 11-4 since that poor start and as winners of SIX of their last seven. Denver's most recent win was this past Sunday, when the Nuggets ended Utah's 11-game winning streak with a 128-117 win over the Jazz at Pepsi Center. Nikola Jokic tied a career-high with 47 points on 17-of-26 shooting, making all four of his three-pointers. He also had 12 rebounds and five assists. Jokic is having a superb season, averaging 26.8-11.8-8.6. PG Murray (18.9-4.0-4.4) had a breakout postseason and continues to play at an All Star level, The Porter (16.6 & 6.5) has missed 10 games but has been back for the last sis and gives Denver quite a trio. Denver also features as much quality depth as any team, as SIX other players are averaging between 7.1 and 11.1 PPG, although SG Harris (10.1), the team's best perimeter defender, will miss due to the left adductor strain he suffered in Sunday's game. It's an accepted fact that LBY (25.0-7.7-7.5) and A'D, (22.3 & 8.7) are as good as any NBB duo but LA's really been helped by the addition of starting PG Schroder (13.6-3.6-4.2) and PF Harrell (13.2 & 6.3) coming off the bench. Also, don't dismiss returning players like Kuzma (9.9 & 5.7), Caldwell-pope (9.4), Horton-Tucker (6.7) and Caruso (5.6) The Nuggets have been on a four-day break after Monday's home contest against the Detroit Pistons was postponed because the latter did not have the required eight players available due to the NBA's safety and health protocols. Meanwhile, LA's head coach Frank Vogel says his club remains a work in progress, despite owning one of the NBA's best records. The 16-6 Lakers have recently fallen behind the 17-6 Clippers and 16-5 Jazz and Denver surely got their attention with that win over Utah. "We'll continue to stick to our process and hopefully get better as the season goes along," Vogel said. Here's a good spot to "show what the team is made of." My bet says that LA wins "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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02-04-21 | Minnesota v. Rutgers -5 | Top | 72-76 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Rutgers at 9:00 ET. Richard Pitino is in his eighth season at Minnesota. He led the Gophers to the NIT championship in his first season (2013-14) but over the last six seasons, Minnesota has made just two NCAA appearances (2017 and 2019), while going a combined 56-71 (.441) over the other four. The Gophers opened 9-1 in Pitino's 8th season but the Golden Gophers fell out of the top-25 this past Monday and currently sit 11-6, including 4-6 in the Big Ten (more in a bit). Steve Pikiell spent 11 years at Stony Brook, winning 20-plus games in his final five seasons. He led the Seawolves to an NCAA berth in 2015-16 and a 26-7 record. His first three seasons at Rutgers saw the Scarlet Knights go just 15-18, 15-19 and 14-17. However, Rutgers was 20-11 last season before the year was shut down. Rutgers won its first five games by double digits and opened league play with a 74-60 win at Maryland on Dec 14. The Scarlet Knights improved to 6-0 by pulling out a 91-88 win over then-No. 13 Illinois on Dec 20 (rose to No. 11 in the AP poll). However, like Minnesota, Rutgers has cooled off. The Scarlet Knights welcome Minnesota to "The RAC" just 10-6, including 6-6 in the Big Ten. This is the first of two meetings between the Big Ten schools. Minnesota PG Carr (20.0-4.1-5.2) ranks with the best in the nation and has been aided by THREE transfers, 7-0 Liam Robbins (13.4 & 6.9) from Drake, the 6-6 Gach (9.1 & 4.9) from Utah and the 6-8 Johnson (8.2 & 6.1) from Western Michigan. Plus, don't dismiss returning junior guard Kalescheur, who's adding 9.1 PPG. Rutgers has a STRONG backcourt in Harper (17.3 & 6.2), Young (14.6), Mathis (10.8) and Baker (9.9-3.0-3.0). Mulcahy has played more recently in the backcourt, adding 5.9-3.9-3.3-3.6) The 6-11 Johnson (8.3 & 8.8) has been solid all season inside plus 6-11 freshman Omoruyi (4.3 & 4.4) has returned from a knee injury to play in the last three games. Rutgers has won those last three games, snapping out of a five-game losing streak. Here's the bottom line. Minnesota may be 11-1 at home (Williams Arena) but the not-so-Golden Gophers are 0-5 SU & ATS on the road (all Big Ten games), that's a perfect" 100% go-against. Rutgers has regrouped and the Scarlet Knights are a 'sweet' 25-5 SU at "The RAC" (Rutgers Athletic Center) since the start of last season. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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02-04-21 | Ohio State v. Iowa -4.5 | Top | 89-85 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Iowa at 7:00 ET. Chris Holtmann took over at Butler for Brad Stevens and went 70-31 win three seasons, each ending with an NCAA tourney berth. He took the Ohio St job beginning in 2017-18 and strung together three straight 20-win seasons but was denied a third straight NCAA bid when last season was shut down. Holtmann credits his players' mental toughness for pushing the No. 7 Buckeyes near the top of the Big Ten standings after losing two of their first three conference games. The Buckeyes (14-4 / 8-4 Big Ten) have won THREE straight and SIX of seven going into tonight's showdown at No. 8 Iowa (13-4 / 7-3 Big Ten). Fran McCaffrey came to Iowa City from Siena, where he led the Saints to THREE straight NCAA appearances and a 77-26 record. He's been at Iowa since the 2010-11 season. He's led Iowa to SIX 20-win seasons the last eight seasons, getting four NCAA bids (would have been five last year but the NCAA tourney was canceled). Iowa returned all FIVE starters from last year, including the Preseason P-O-Y. (Luka Garza). SG Washington (14.5) has been solid all season for Ohio St in the backcourt and after missing some time due to torn ligaments in his right hand, PG Walker (8.6 & 3.9 APG) has been back the last three games (all wins!). The frontcourt has five solid contributors led by the team's best player, the 6-7 Liddell (15.3 & 6.9). He's joined on the frontline by the 6-7 Sueing (10.9 & 5.4), the 6-8 Young (8.0 & 5.9), the 6-6 Aherns (6.9) and 6-8 freshman Key (6.6 & 3.6). Garza (26.5 & 8.8) is joined in Iowa's starting lineup by senior guards Wieskamp (14.2 & 6.2) and Bohannon (9.5 & 4.5 APG) plus Fredrick (8.7) and PG Conor McCafrey (3.7-3.4-4.3). The 6-11 Nunge (7.1 & 5.5) comes off the bench, as do the 6-8 Murray (6.7 & 4.5) and the 6-9 Patrick McCaffrey (5.3 & 3.1). No doubt that Ohio St comes in playing well but after Iowa defeated visiting Michigan State 84-78 on Tuesday, to break a two-game losing streak, the Hawkeyes will be PRIMED to avenge a 102-95 Christmas Day loss in Columbus to the Buckeyes. Double-digit "payback" win expected. Good luck...Larry |
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02-04-21 | Cincinnati v. Temple +2.5 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error of the Month is on Temple at 7:00 ET. John Brannen led Northern Kentucky to a 72-30 record in his final three seasons, leading the Norse to the "Big Dance" in two of those three years. He was hired at Cincy on April 14, 2019 when Mick Cronin left for UCLA. The Bearcats went 20-10 in last year's pandemic-shortened season but opened the current season missing guards Jarron Cumberland (15.5) and Jaevin Cumberland (8.8) plus forward Tre Scott (11.4 & 10.5). The Bearcats were one of the last teams in Division I to start their season not taking the floor until Dec 2. Now, when they visit Philadelphia to meet Temple on Thursday night, the team has not been able to play a game since Jan 10 due to COVID-19 cases within its program. Aaron McKie had a great career as a player at Temple and then spent 13 years in the NBA. He replaced Fran Dunphy as head coach before the start of last season (Owls went just 14-17) and is now in his second season coaching his alma mater. Before Cincy's shutdown, which included six postponements, the Bearcats (3-7 / 1-4 AAC) the Bearcats had lost SIX lost of seven games, with their most recent being an 82-76 defeat at Wichita State (Jan 10). Cincy's team is guard-dominated, led by Williams (15.0 & 4.2), who is joined by fellow starters Davenport (10.1 & 4.3), Dejulius (8.6 & 4.8) and Adam-Woods (7.9). The biggest disappointment has been returning 7-1 center Vogt (11.0 & 5.8 last season), who longer starts and enters averaging just 5.6 & 3.68. The 6-8 Eason (7.6 & 5.5) is about the ONLY regular frontcourt contributor. Like Cincy, Temple has played a limited amount of games this season, entering this contest 4-5 overall, including 3-5 in the AAC. Following the death of legendary former coach John Chaney, the Owls held a pregame tribute to Chaney pregame but then went out and shot 39.7 percent for the game, making only 2-of-14 threes in the second half of an 81-64 home defeat to Tulane. However, I believe this Temple team is WAY better than its record. It has three frontcourt starters that can (should) be successful against Cincy in the 6-8 Forrester (10.0 & 6.70, the 6-7 Perry (8.3 & 5.0) and the 6-7 Moorman (7.7 & 6.2). The starting backcourt is leading scorer Dunn (14.1 & 4.4) and PG Williams (7.6-3.4-5.0) but also features Battle (11.8 & 5.5) and Barry (7.60 coming off the bench. I feel as if the Owls will bounce back quickly from that 'ugly' effort vs Tulane and as for Cincy, the game must feel so long ago for the Bearcats, who have spent most of the shutdown without even being able to conduct a full team workout. "We're getting through it, I hope to be through it soon in terms of player availability, but our guys' health is the most important thing," head coach John Brannen said on his local radio show recently. "I told our walk-ons that everybody is going to be available right now because once we have the amount of players available to play games, we'll certainly do it." Temple opened a home dog in this one? Good luck...Larry |
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02-03-21 | SMU v. Tulsa +2.5 | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Tulsa at 9:00 ET. 15-1 Houston is now ranked No. 5 in the latest AP poll (highest for the school since the Phi Slamma Jamma days) and with a 10-1 record in the AAC is unquestionably the league's dominant team. Falling in behind the Cougars in conference play are 5-2 Wichita St, 6-3 Memphis, 6-4 Tulsa and 5-4 SMU. The SMU Mustangs and Tulsa Golden Hurricane meet Wednesday at Tulsa's Donald W. Reynolds Center. SMU opened 6-0 but enters this contest having lost FOUR of seven since. Tulsa opened 7-3 but has lost THREE of five. Tm Jankovich took over after Larry Brown once again left a program in tatters and in his first full season (2016-17) went 30-5. However, the Mustangs were just a combined 51-44 the previous three seasons. The Mustangs returned the outstanding guard duo of Davis and Jolly but Jolly's been battling personal issues and made his first appearance of the current season on Jan 23. In his first games back, he's averaging 8.5 & 4.0 (averaged 14.5 & 6.2 last season). PG Davis (16.8-4.3-7.4) has been great and three other starters are averaging in or just below double digits. The group includes guard Bandoumel (11.3) plus a pair of 6-9 forwards in Hunt (12.2 & 8.0) and Chargois (9.8 & 5.4). Frank Haith has had stops at Miami-Fl and Missouri before coming to Tulsa for the 2014-15 season. His teams have averaged 19.3 wins per year in his first six seasons, including going 21-10 before COVID shut down the 2019-20 season. The Golden Hurricane are led by a quartet of guards in Rachal (15.1 & 6.7), Joiner (10.2-4.7-3.4), Jackson (6.8 & 4.0) and Embery-Simpson (6.7). The 6-9 Idowu (9.2 & 4.5) is the team's best frontcourt player. The Mustangs enter this contest 1-6 ATS their last seven games overall and going back to last season, are just 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 road games. Tulsa is a terrific defensive team, holding opponents to 63.5 PPG (31st) on 39.8% shooting (28th), including 29.9% on threes (29th). Frank Haith's biggest win at Tulsa came when it stunned No. 5 Houston 65-64 back on Dec 29. It was the program's first win over a top-5 opponent in 24 years and the Golden Hurricane have played at home just ONCE (a Jan 17 win over Memphis) since that game. Tulsa has to be VERY happy to be back home and that spells "bad news" for a poor-traveling SMU team. Good luck...Larry |
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02-03-21 | Mavs -2 v. Hawks | Top | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavs at 7:35 ET. The Mavs went 43-32 last season, ending a three-year postseason drought and led by the "All-World" Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, expected to be playoff contenders for years to come. However, Dallas enters this contest having lost NINE of 11, including SIX consecutive games SU & ATS. Dallas sits 8-13 on the season, third-worst in the West. The Atlanta Hawks opened the current season off three straight losing ones (24-58, 29-53 and 20-47) but are currently 10-10, which would give them the No. 6 seed in the East if the season ended today. Dallas has to be desperate to end a frustrating six-game losing streak on Wednesday night, after Monday's 109-108 loss to Phoenix on Monday was decided by Devin Booker's three-pointer with 1.5 seconds left! The good news on Monday was that Dallas has its full complement of players on the roster again after the return of Maxi Kleber (6.9 & 5.4), who had missed 11 games in health and safety protocols. He produced two points and six rebounds in 18 minutes on Monday. Kleber and Kristaps Porzingis (18.6 & 8.2) were both in the starting lineup for the first time this season, as the Mavs used their 12th different starting combination this season. Doncic (27.3-9.0-9.4) and Dallas has excellent depth, as Hardaway (16.9), Richardson (12.9)and Brunson (11.5) all average in double digits. Burke (9.9) and Finney-Smith (8.5 & 4.4) just miss. PG Trae Young (26.9-4.2-9.0) is the brightest star of Atlanta's young talent but don't discount Hunter (17.2-4.5-4.5), Collins (15.9 & 7.5), Reddish (11.9 & 4.4) and Hueter (11.3-3.8-3.4). Then there is former Houston center Clint Capela, who is averaging 13.8 & 14.4 on the season. The Hawks were missing No. 2 scorer De'Andre Hunter against LA, who was out after having a non-surgical procedure on his right knee on Sunday. He was replaced in the starting five by Cam Reddish, who played a solid defensive game against LeBron James. The Hawks went toe-to-toe with the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers on Monday before faltering in the final two minutes and losing 107-99. Atlanta continues to hold its own against the league's top teams, an indication of a potential breakthrough. However, the Atlanta players don't want to think in terms of a moral victory. Tonight, the Mavericks just NEED a "W." Porzingis continues to work his way back from an October knee surgery. He was withheld from the lineup Saturday but returned to play 34 minutes on Monday, when he scored 19 points and added 10 rebounds. Will he play tonight? No guarantee but this is the healthiest Dallas has been all season and I will 'buy in' on that and play the Mavs. Good luck...Larry |
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02-03-21 | Kentucky v. Missouri -4.5 | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Missouri at 7:00 ET. Kentucky was ranked No. 10 in the AP preseason poll but its 1-6 start took care of that. However, the Wildcats won three straight to open SEC play, after a 76-58 at Florida on Jan 9. Hope was alive in Lexington but the Wildcats have lost FOUR of five since that 3-0 SEC start. Missouri head coach Cuonzo Martin has his team off to a 6-0 start, after back-to-back losing seasons of 15-17 and 15-16. The Tigers have gone 5-3 (4-3 in the SEC) since that perfect start, as they welcome Kentucky to Mizzou Arena on Wednesday night. Kentucky saw its marquee matchup with No. 5 Texas canceled last Saturday, as the Wildcats' program went on a 48-hour pause because of COVID-19 concerns, with the game against Missouri bumped from Tuesday to Wednesday. Kentucky hasn't played since Jan 26, when it faded down the stretch of a 70-59 loss at No. 9 Alabama. The Wildcats led 54-52 with 4:27 left but went scoreless over the next 3:47 while the Crimson Tide pumped in 10 straight points to seize control. Coach Cal said, "The last three minutes, dudes backed away. Playing --you ready? -- not to lose vs playing to win. We had our chances. We, again, got out-toughed. Just makes me sick." It's no surprise that Calipari relies on freshmen, including leading scorer Boston (12.1 & 5.5), who was joined in the backcourt by freshman Clarke (10.7) and Askew (6.6) plus senior Mintz (9.7-3.4). However, Clarke has been sidelined since Dc 26 with an ankle injury. 7-0 senior Wake Forest transfer Sarr (10.3 & 5.9) has help up front from 6-10 freshman Jackson (6.5 & 6.9) and now 6-7 sophomore Brooks, who since getting back on the court has averaged 10.2 & 5.2. Missouri's 6-10 center Tilmon is averaging 13.9 & 8.1 and is Missouri's lone big man of note, as Missouri's next four top scorers are guards Pinson (15.1-3.4-3.4), Dru Smith (13.0), Mark Smith (13.0) and Pickett (8.1). The 6-7 Brown (6.6 & 6.2) does help some up front. Missouri (11-3 / 4-3 SEC) avoided its first losing streak of the season by closing regulation with a 19-7 run last Saturday against TCU. Xavier Pinson's three-pointer with 3.9 seconds left forced the extra session, and the Tigers outlasted the Horned Frogs in OT, 102-98. The Tigers can do without all the dramatics here and Kentucky should play the perfect foil. Bottom line is, Kentucky is averaging just 67.5 PPG (273rd) on 41.5% shooting (287th), including 29.0% on threes (320th). Who'da thunk it? If that wasn't bad enough, the Wildcats have 55 more turnovers than assists! Blowout Alert! Good luck...Larry |