Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle of the QBs" is on the lA Chargers at 1:00 ET. The 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals are positioned to make some noise in December, as except for the 8-3 Baltimore Ravens, every AFC team has at least four losses, with 12 at .500 or better. One of those 12 teams at .500 or better is the 6-5 LA Chargers, who remain in the playoff mix despite losing FOUR of their last six games. Baltimore leads the AFC North at 8-3, Cincy checks in at 7-4, the Browns at 6-5 and the Steelers at 5-5-1. Over in the AFC West, KC is 7-5, while the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders are all 6-5.
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Sac Kings at 10:10 ET. The Sacramento Kings fired Luke Walton after a 6-11 start, ending, at least for now, his legendary 166-241 (.408) record as an NBA head coach. However, I'm sure there will be many opportunities for him down the road. The Kings have shown some 'life' and progress since being led by interim head coach Alvin Gentry, going 3-3. The LA Clippers have been without Kawhi up until now and may be without him all season. They visit Sacramento just 12-11, after beating the Lakers Friday night in Staples Center. The Clippers played the Lakers for the first time this season on Friday night and came away with a 119-115 win to end a season-long three-game losing streak. SIX players reached double digits, with PG (25.6-7.3-5.3) just missing a triple-double with 19-8-9 and Kennard (10.4) matching him with 19 points. Kennard has played all 23 games this season (zero starts), as have PG Jackson (17.3 & 4.0 APG), center Zubac (10.2 & 8.1) and SG Bledsoe (9.7-4.1-3.4), while George has missed just one game. The Clippers had one of their most balanced scoring games of the season against the Lakers, as six players scored between 11 and 21 points. "Seeing us tonight, that's how we got to play," Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue said. "That's the blueprint right there." However, Paul George rolled his ankle against the Lakers after initially injuring it against the Warriors but said he's hopeful to play against the Kings (??). I've been saying the same thing for the last two seasons, the Kings have way more talent than their record indicates. Maybe Gentry, whom players like, can get the most out of these perennial underachievers. pG Fox (20.3 & 5.5) is joined on the perimeter by fellow starter Haliburton (1.5 & 5.5 APG) and Hield (16.2 & 4.3), who seems fine coming off the bench these days. Undersized center Holmes (15.2 & 9.8) has developed into a quality big manSF Barnes (19.0 & 7.2) has been terrific since arriving in Sacramento a few years ago. The Kings would get a major boost with the return of Barnes, who has missed the past four games because of a sprained right foot. He's questionable against the Clippers. The Clippers win last night snapped a three-game slide, which included 124-115 loss in Los Angeles against these very same Kings. Beating the Clippers in back-to-back games would be a MAJOR step in the right direction for Sacramento and Gentry. The Kings won two of their first three under Gentry, including a wild triple-overtime win at the Los Angeles Lakers on Nov 26, when the lead changed 23 times. However, Sacramento didn't come near that performance in its next two games, losing by 27 points at the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday and by 25 at the Lakers on Tuesday. That bounce-back win 24 hours later against the Clippers was VERY welcoming. Another "W" here would be HUGE. Haliburton, for one, said he appreciates Gentry's hands-off style. "Coach Gentry has done a good job in letting the players kind of have a lot to say," he said. "He comes in and we're already talking and having that conversation, and he just lets us go." I'm "all over" the Kings in this one! Expect a double-digit win. Good luck...Larry |
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12-04-21 | Iowa State +6.5 v. Creighton | Top | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Late Breaker is on Iowa St at 9:30 ET. No. 19 Iowa State checks in at 7-0, as it takes on 7-1 Creighton in a Big East/Big 12 matchup at Omaha. The matchup also features the first meeting between Bluejays head coach Greg McDermott and Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger. The latter served on McDermott's Cyclones staff from 2006-10 when Iowa State went 59-68 during McDermott's tenure as head coach. |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 127 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on Pittsburgh at 8:00 ET The 10-2 Pittsburgh Panthers (AP No. 17) and the 10-2 Wake Forest Demon Deacons meet Saturday in the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (no Clemson this year, after the Tigers had won the last SIX!). Pat Narduzzi was hired as Pitt's head coach on Dec 26, 2014. He led Pitt to bowl games in FOUR of his first five seasons, before last year's team went 6-5 but declined an invite due to COVID conditions. However, this year has been special, as Pitt has lost at least three games in every season since 1981 and has not ended a season in the AP top-25 since the 1982 season. That could all change this season, beginning with the ACC title game. Dave Clawson is in his eighth season at Winston-Salem and considering his record was 40-45 coming into the 2021 season, it's safe to say that this is the best team he's had. The Demon Deacons opened 8-0 (first time in school history) and with a dominating 41-10 win last Saturday at Boston College, clinched the Atlantic Division with a 7-1 record (Pitt was 7-1 in the Coastal).
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12-04-21 | Vanderbilt v. SMU -4 | Top | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on SMU at 6:00 ET. Vanderbilt's Jerry Stackhouse was just 20-37 in his first two seasons at Nashville, but he has this year's team off to a 5-1 start as the 'Dores visit Dallas to take on a 6-3 SMU team. The Mustangs' Tim Jankovich is just two years removed from severe sanctions that SMU faced due to none other than Larry Brown (great coach but one who knows how to leave a program in the dust!). SMU won 19 games before the 2019-20 season was shut down and then went 11-6 in a season that limited this team to 17 games because of COVID. |
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12-04-21 | BYU v. Missouri State +3.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Missouri St at 4:00 ET. BYU and Missouri State will come into their Saturday meeting in Springfield, Mo with each team coming off OT losses on Wednesday. The Cougars moved into the top-25 after a 6-0 start that included a nice win in Salt Lake City over Utah but were upset at neighboring Utah Valley St, 72-65 in overtime, dropping their first game of the season to fall to 6-1. Meanwhile in Normal, Illinois, the Bears (4-3) opened their Missouri Valley Conference schedule with a disappointing 79-74 overtime setback at Illinois State.
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12-03-21 | Cavs +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Cle Cavs at 7:10 ET. Two teams that were expected to struggle this season, but which have done better than projected to this point, collide on Friday night when the 12-10 Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Verizon Center for a game with 14-8 Washington Wizards. These teams met back on Nov. 10 in Cleveland, with the Wizards winning 97-94. Talk about quick turnarounds! LBJ bolted Cleveland for a second time after the 2017-18 season and the Cavs entered this season having gone 60-159 (.274) the previous three seasons. However, the Cavaliers posted their third straight lopsided victory with a 111-85 win over the Miami Heat on Wednesday and will try to match a season-high four-game winning streak tonight in D.C. The Cavs continue to play well despite losing standout guard Sexton (16.0) for the season due to a knee injury. PG Garland (18.5 & 7.2 APG) has been terrific plus the Cavs have found themselves quite a frontcourt. 6-10 center Allen leads the group in scoring (16.3) and rebounding (11.3) Then the Cavs have the 6-11 Mobley, the third pick of last year's draft, averaging 14.5 & 8.2), while the 6-11 Markkannen, formerly with the Bulls, is adding 14.5 & 6.2. Guard Okoro (7.9 & 4.2) has been starting lately in Sexton's place but picking up vet PG Rubio ahs been HUGE, as he has played in ALL 22 games, averaging 13.8-4.0-6.3. Formerr All Star Love is now more of a role player but he's a pretty good one, averaging 11.1 & 7.5. The Wizards have been searching for an identity for some time now and MAY have found one this season. Guards Beal (22.7-5.1-6.2) and Dinwiddie (14.1-5.2-5.5) are the 'heart' of the team but a trio I like to call "Lakers-East," have been MAJOR additions. PF Harrell (16.6 & 8.1), SF Kuzma (13.0 & 8.9) and swingman Caldwell-Pope (11.2) have really found a home on the East Coast. Undersized center, the 6-9 Gafford, is averaging 9.3 & 5.9. A couple points of interest in this one. The Cavs are an impressive 15-7 ATS, while the Wizards are a more modest 12-10. I noted that the Cavs enter on a three-game winning streak (they are also on a 5-game ATS run) and they've allowed just 91.0 points in their three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Wizards have allowed 112.3 PPG over their last three games. Jarrett Allen followed up a career-high 28-point, 14-rebound performance in Cleveland's 114-96 win in Dallas on Monday and then with his fifth straight double-double (19 & 11) two nights later in Wednesday's win in Miami. Mobley scored 15 of his 17 points in the third quarter versus the Heat and finished with 11 rebounds, as the Cavaliers moved to 9-2 in the last 11 games played with Mobley in the lineup. Love the way the Cavs are playing. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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12-02-21 | Oregon State +2.5 v. California | Top | 61-73 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Pac 12 Game of the Month is on Oregon St at 10:30 ET. Oregon State head coach Wayne Tinkle came from Montana to take over at Oregon St in the 2014-15 season. His overall record entering this season was just 113-109 but he did lead last year's team to the Pac 12 tourney championship and all the way to the Elite 8. Cal head coach Mark Fox is in his third season, entering the current season with a 23-38 record, including a 9-20 record (3-17 in the Pac 12). Cal began 0-2 but has gone 3-2 to enter its Pac 12 opener 3-4. Getting back to the 1-6 Beavers, they are in danger of going from reaching the Elite Eight last season to having an eight-game losing streak if the Beavers lose to Cal and to No. 11 Arizona on Sunday to start the Pac-12 season. Oregon St won its season-opener over Portland St but enters this contest on a SIX-game losing streak (1-5 ATS). Tisdale lost his top scorer in Thompson (15.7 & 4.0) plus starting yard Reichle (7.2) but returned SIX of his top-eight scorers. The 6-8 Alatishe (10.9 & 7.0), the 6-10 Calloo (8.5 & 4.5) are the best frontcourt players, joined by guards Lucas (10.4), Davis (6.5-4.2-3.3) and Hunt (4.9-3.0-2.7). Matt Bradley took his 18 points and 4.6 rebounds per game with him when he transferred to San Diego St after last season but Cal has two 6-9 frontcourt players off to good starts in Kelly (16.1 & 9.0) and Anticevich (11.6 & 6.0). Shepherd leads with 13.1 PPG on the perimeter. Cal lost consecutive games last week in the Fort Myers (Fl) Tip-Off Classic against Florida and Seton Hall before returning home to beat previously unbeaten Fresno State 65-57 on Sunday. The Beavers are most recently coming off a 60-45 defeat to Penn State. However, previous to that blowout loss, Oregon St lost by one point, and then by three in overtime. I like head coach Tinkle. who is a master at tinkering his line-ups and I think he'll start to create the same magic which saw his team make a deep tournament run last season. Oregon State has gone 4-1 ATS the last five in this series and tonight make it 5-1 with an outright win! Good luck...Larry |
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12-02-21 | Pistons v. Suns OVER 209 | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Det/Pho Over at 9:10 ET. |
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12-01-21 | Wisconsin v. Georgia Tech +4 | Top | 70-66 | Push | 0 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Big10/ACC Challenge Game of the Year is on Ga Tech at 9:15 ET. Wisconsin won three straight games to claim the Maui Invitational in Las Vegas last week by defeating Texas A&M, then-No. 12 Houston before posting a 61-55 over St. Mary's in the title game. The 5-1 Badgers entered the new AP poll Monday at No. 23 and will take that ranking to Atlanta to face 5-1 Ga Tech in a Big Ten/ACC Challenge contest on Wednesday. Wisconsin featured four, 5th-year seniors and three regular seniors alst season but of the 14 scholarship players this season, 10 are classified as freshmen for eligibility purposes. Guard Davison began the season with 124 career starts and is averaging 13.3 & 5.0. The great news for Wisconsin fans is, fellow guard Davis (7.0 & 4.1 LY) is averaging 20.2 & 5.6 this season. Also back, after limited playing time last season, are the 6-9 Wahl (9.3 & 5.0) and the 7-0 Crowl (9.2 & 5.2). Josh Pastner (of Memphis fame) led Ga Tech Yellow Jackets to a 17-9 record and their first ACC tourney championship since 1993. Ga Tech lost ACC player of the year Wright (14 & 8.0) and PG Alvarado (15.2-3.5-4.1) but this season features a guard trio of Devoe (23.4-5.6-5.0), Usher (15.8 & 8.7) and freshman Coleman (7.7) plus 6-10 center Howard (8.5 & 7.3). Also chipping in are guards Smith (7.6) and Sturdivant (7.5). No one will be surprised if Wisconsin makes it 22 NCAA appearances in the last 23 years this season but this is a tough spot for the Badgers, playing on the road against a team that is frankly, the defending ACC tourney champs. After losing its season opener at home to Miami-Oh (72-69), Ga Tech has won FIVE in a row and tonight is a home dog. Bow Wow! Good luck...Larry |
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12-01-21 | 76ers +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Division (Atlantic) Game of the Month is on the Phi 76ers at 7:40 ET. Both the 76ers and Celtics have opened 11-10 and meet for the first time this season in Boston on Wednesday night. Philadelphia began its season with eight wins in 10 games before dropping eight of its next 11 amid a COVID-19 outbreak (more later). Boston has a new head coach this year (Ime Udoka) and opened just 2-5 but are now, like Philly, 11-10 on the season. The 76ers' 101-96 win over Orlando on Monday snapped the team's two-game skid and the best news is that the team is back healthy. Seth Curry (16.2) led the way with 24 points while PF Tobias Harris (20.1 & 8.4) added 17 with nine rebounds and center Joel Embiid (22.8 & 10.3) contributed 16 & 13. Embiid has missed 10 games and Harris eight but both are AOK at the moment. Guard Maxey has played all 21 games and has averaged 18.0 & 5.0 APG. Milton (11.6), Niang (11.2) and Korkmaz (9.7) have mostly been used off the bench, adding excellent depth. Boston played without guard Dennis Schroder (17.1-4.0-4.9) and center Robert Williams III (9.4 & 9.6) in its 109-97 win at Toronto on Sunday. Schroder was sidelined with a right ankle sprain while Williams sat out with a non-COVID-19 illness. All-Star Jaylen Brown (22.4 & 5.3) was a game-time decision as the team continued to manage his return from a hamstring injury. Brown played 27 minutes and scored 16 points. Tatum (24.3 & 8.5) has played in all 21 games and Horford is back in Boston, averaging 12.5 & 8.3 (he's missed just three games). Smart (11.2-4.1-5.7) has been Schroder's backcourt partner and Josh Richardson is adding 9.5 PPG, after scoring 18 points in Boston's latest game (he had missed three games with a non-COVID-19 illness). Boston has struggled to shoot the ball this season, hitting 43.5 percent from the floor (24th), including only 32.6 percent on three-pointers (25th). As noted above, this the first of four meetings between Philadelphia and Boston and I'll add that the 76ers swept the three-game series between the teams last season. New season, same result! Good luck...Larry |
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11-30-21 | Indiana v. Syracuse +3 | Top | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Syracuse at 7:00 ET. 3-3 Syracuse returns home to face 6-0 Indiana on Tuesday night in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. The Orange lost two of three games at the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament in the Bahamas and have given up 80 or more points in THREE of six games this season. Where's that famous Boeheim "2-3 Zone?" While Boeheim has been at Syracuse since 'FOREVER,' Indiana is led by first-year coach Mike Woodson, who has the team off to an undefeated start.
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11-30-21 | Minnesota v. Pittsburgh +3 | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Pittsburgh at 7:00 ET. Minnesota saw a 9-1 start to its 2020-21 season (No. 21 in the AP poll) fall apart by losing 14 of its final 19 games to finish 14-15, That was enough to end Richard Pitino's 8-year run at Minnesota, as Ben Jonhson takes over (first head coaching gig). Johnson was hired and there was a mass exodus at Minnesota, as players transferred right and left (NONE of last year's starters are back!). Most notably, Minnesota lost (to Texas) one of last season's best backcourt players in Carr (19.4-4.0-4.9), and was picked to finish last in the Big Ten. However, Minnesota is off to a 5-0 start. The Pitt Panthers have been ravaged by transfers, injuries and other issues over the last year. Jeff Capel has had a tough start at Pitt (40-48) and prepared for the season without his top three scorers from a year ago (one moved on to the NBA and two transferred to other programs). The Panthers then lost their fourth- and fifth-leading scorers from last season due to a suspension and an ACL tear, respectively. The Panthers welcome Minnesota to town for this ACC-Big Ten Challenge contest at 2-4. The Golden Gophers are led by 6-7 George Wasghington transfer Battle (17.8 & 6.2) and College of Charleston transfer, guard Willis (16.6-5.6-3.4). Guards Stephens (11.4 & 3.8) and New Hamphire transfer Sutherlin (10.2 & 4.4) plus 6-9 SF Austin transfer Curry (7.0 & 6.8) join Battle and Willis to give Minnesota a whole new look this season. The Panthers are led by the 6-9 John Hugley (14.3 & 7.2) and 6-5 gaurd Femi Odukale (13.2-3.8-3.5). Freshman Nate Santos (7.2 & 4.3) is off to a solid start plus senior guard Burton (8.5) and 6-7 sophomore Jeffress adds 6.5 & 6.3. All of Pitt's four defeats have come by double figures, including an 87-77 loss to UMBC over the weekend. However, the 77 points were a season-high for the etam. Head coach Jeff Capel afterward, "I thought we did some good things. For us to score 77 points, for us to make 11 threes. I thought that was good for us. So hopefully we can carry over and have some confidence." I'm with Jeff. I believe Pittsburgh cand and WILL play better and expect a win here against an overrtaed Minnesota team playings its first true road game of the season. Good luck...Larry |
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11-29-21 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | Top | 119-133 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cha Hornets at 8:10 ET The Charlotte Hornets were 33-39 last season and the Chicago Bulls were 31-41. The two teams meet for the first time this season with the Hornets coming to Chicago with a 13-9 record and the Bulls checking in at 13-8. Charlotte had won EIGHT of nine before falling 146-143 in overtime at cellar-dwelling Houston on Saturday night. That was NO way to open a four-game road trip. As for Chicago, the Bulls have lost THREE of four, after Saturday's 107-104 home loss to the Miami Heat. Charlotte is led by the outstanding trio of Bridges (20.3 & 7.4), Ball (19.4-7.9-8.0) and Hayward (17.0-4.9-3.5). Plumlee (6.8 & 7.3) started the first 20 games but is currently sidelined (right calf strain), with PJ Washintgton (9.9 & 4.3) filling in the last two (15.0 & 5.5 in his two starts!). Perimeter players Rozier (17.4-3.6-3.3) and Oubre (14.7 & 4.0) have also been regular and effective contributors. The Bulls have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free-agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent. There were 'whispers' that the 32-year-old DeMar DeRozan was on the downside of his career but he's been one of the best players in the NBA so far this season, averaging 25.8-5.2-4.1. He has energized the Chicago Bulls, along with LaVine (25.3-5.1-3.7), Vucevic (13.4 & 11.0) and Ball (12.3-5.4-4.7). Vucevic missed time while part of the NBA's COVID-19 protocol but he returned three games ago and is just fine (12.3 & 11.3). This contest is a "toss up" in my view and the Hornets come in on a 7-3 ATS roll, while the Bulls are 0-8 ATS in their eight SU losses this season. I 'smell' an outright win here by the Hornets and will gladly take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia +2 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on Virginia at 7:00 ET. Fran McCaffrey is in his 12th season at Iowa City and he's delivered seven, 20-win seasons is his first 11. Gone are consensus National Player-of-the-Year Garza (24.1 & 8.7) and Wieskamp (14.8 & 6.6) but the Hawkeyes have opened 6-0 by averaging 97.2 PPG, tops in the nation. Tony Bennett's, UVA team won a national championship in 2019 and from the 2013-14 season through the championship season of 2018-19, the Cavs avenged 29.7 wins per season. Gone from last year's team are big big men Hauser (16.0 & 6.8) and Huff (13.0 & 7.1) plus guard Murphy (11.3). UVA has opened 5-2 as it gets set to host Iowa as part of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. The 6-8 Murray twins (Keegan and Kris) were freshmen last season at Iowa. Keegan gained playing time as the year wound down but Kris was lost in the shuffle. This season, Keegan leads the nation in scoring (25.7 PPG), while adding 8.8 RPG. His brother Kris comes off the bench to chip in 12.8 & 6.8. Returning players like the 6-9 Patrick McCaffrey is averaging 12.5 PPG and returning guard Bohannon adds 10.0 PPG. 6-7 freshman Sandfort (9.7) and sophomore guard Perkins (9.0) round out the main contributors. The only returning starter for UVA is PG Clark (10.3 & 3.9 APG). Guard Beekman (6.7-3.7-2.9) is back, as is the 6-11 Shedrick (6.6 & 6.3), but UVA's two-most important players are transfers. The 6-6 Gardner (13.4 & 8.3) comes from East Carolina and guard Franklin (13.0) comes via Indiana. As always, Bennett's team is one of the nation's best defensive squads in the nation, allowing just 53.6 PPG (4th). Of course, one can't ignore that Iowa is averaging about five 'TDs' more per game than UVA (97.2-to-61.4) but it's rare that UVA doesn't control the flow of a game playing here at John Paul Jones Arena. Iowa's gaudy numbers have been rolled up exclusively at home and against teams such as North Carolina Central and Portland State but now plays on the road for the FIRST time this season. What's more, Iowa could be peeking ahead to opening its Big Ten schedule in its next two games vs No. 3 Purdue and No. 14 Illinois. Patrick McCaffery, the son of coach Fran McCaffery, says Iowa is eager for the challenge to face tough competition. "You love the increased competition," he said. "I'm ready and I've got a lot of dogs in the locker room who are ready." My response? Be careful what you wish for. The 'dogs' playing at UVA may reply, as a tribute to John Paul Jones, "I (we) have not yet begun to fight!" A closing note of interest. The Hawkeyes have struggled in this spot for bettors, going 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home contests Good luck...Larry |
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11-28-21 | Bucks v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 118-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Division (Central) Game of the Month is on the Ind Pacers at 5:10 ET. The reigning NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks carry a six-game winning streak into Indianapolis for a Sunday matchup with the Indiana Pacers. The Bucks got off to just a 6-8 start, before beginning their current winning run Nov 17. That gives them a 12-8 mark but no one is off to a blazing start in the East (like the 17-2 Warriors and 17-3 Suns out West), as the Nets lead the East at 14-6, just TWO games better than Milwaukee. The Indiana Pacers missed the postseason with a 34-38 record last year, after playing in NINE of the previous 10. The Pacers opened 1-6 and were just 6-11 thru Nov 19 but do enter this contest having won THREE of four (lone loss was in OT vs the Lakers). The Bucks had some health and injury issues early on but are in pretty good shape right now. Naturally, the Bucks are led by Giannis Antetokounmpo (winner of the MVP award the two previous seasons), whose line reads 27.1-11.7-6.0. However, FIVE more players are averaging in double digits. That group includes Middleton (17.1-5.2-4.8), Portis (15.4 & 8.5), Holiday (14.2-4.4-5.6), Allen (14.2) and Connaughton (12.1 & 5.1). Nwora (8.0) and Hill (7.4) are also reliable contributors. The Pacers have All Star quality players in PG Brogdon (20.7-6.0-6.2) and PF Sabonis (18.0 & 11.5) plus a deep supporting cast. That list includes guards LaVert (14.2) and rookie Duarte (13.3 & 4.3) plus center Turner (12.9 & 7.6). Playing mostly in reserve roles, swingman Holiday (9.6) plus guards McConnell (8.7 & 5.2 APG) and Lamb (7.7) are effective contributors. In their three wins over the last four games, the Pacers limited New Orleans, Chicago and Toronto to 94, 77 and 97 points, respectively. Indiana complemented its tough defensive play in Friday's 114-97 win over Toronto with balanced scoring. SEVEN Pacers scored in double-figures, including three off the bench: Kelan Martin with 15 points, Chris Duarte with 12 and Torrey Craig with 11. Caris LeVert scored 19 points, his most since returning to the lineup on Nov 13. Domantas Sabonis led the way with 23 points, and with 18 rebounds in his 15th double-double of the season. This Indiana is WAAAY better than its record and a home win over the Bucks would be a much-needed confidence-builder. Yes, the Bucks have won six straight (just 3-3 ATS) but it's hard to ignore that Milwaukee is more than 10 points per game off of its NBA-leading scoring average of a season ago. The Bucks are averaging 109.5 PPG this season, down from 120.1 last season. I'm taking the home dog. Good luck...Larry |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
My NFC 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. The Rams lost in Green Bay to the Packers 32-18 in last year's Divisional Round but much has changed as the Rams venture back to Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon for this Week 12 contest. I'll get to those changes in a bit but first, let me set the stage. The Rams opened the season 7-1 through Week 8 but were then upset by the Tiatns at home, who were playing without Henry. They then lost 31-10 at San Francisco in Week 10. A Week 11 bye likely came at a good time. The Packers lost 38-3 in Week 1 against the Saints (game was played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida) but rebounded to win their next SIX games, before the Rodgers 'vaccination fiasco!' Rodgers sat out the 13-7 loss at KC but returned in a 17-0 win over Seattle, before the Packers lost 34-31 at Minnesota last Sunday. The Packers are 8-3 and battling the 9-2 Cardinals for the NFL's No. 1 seed.
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 47.5 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* featured Sunday O/U is on LAC/Dev Over at 4:05 ET. The 6-4 LA Chargers are a half-game back of the 7-4 KC Chiefs in the AFC West. They are in Denver this Sunday to face the 5-5 Denver Broncos who are in last-place, a half-game back of the 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders, who won Thanksgiving Day at Dallas. Sunday's game will be the first time Denver head coach Vic Fangio will coach against his former assistant Brandon Staley. Fangio was the defensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears when he hired Staley to be his outside linebackers coach in 2017. They were together for three seasons, the last with Denver in 2019. Staley has led Los Angeles into playoff contention in his first year. Justin Herbert threw for a season-high 382 yards with three TDs and one INT in last Sunday night's 41-37 win over Pittsburgh. The Chargers led 27-10 into the 4th quarter but actually fell behind, before Herbert connected on a 53-yard TD pass with just over two minutes to go. RB Austin Ekeler ran for 50 yards (2 TDs) and caught six passes for 65 yards (2 TDs). He is the ONLY player in the AFC with 500 or more rushing yards (573) and 400-plus receiving yards (405). He has run for 7 TDs and caught 6 TD passes. Herbert has veteran WR Allen as a possession receiver (74 catches / 10.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Williams (46 / 15.3 YPC / 7 TDs) as more of a big-play threat. Denver opened the season 3-0, then lost FOUR straight, only to win back-to-back games before losing at home to the Eagles 30-13 last Sunday. I'm not sure Denver has finally found its next QB but Bridgewater is completing 69.2% for 2,389 yards with 14 TDs and just 5 INTs. The 14 TD passes is one shy of his career-high and he's thrown just one INT in his last four games (123 attempts). The RB duo of Gordon (522 yards / 4.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and rookie Williams (514 yards / 5.0 YPC / 1 TD) gives the offense some balance, while WRs Sutton (43 / 14.3 YPC / 3 TDs) and Patrick (37 / 14.1 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Fant (42 / 3 TDs) make up a decent receiving corp. Here's the contrast in this game. The Chargers average 26.0 PPG but allow 26.5, while the Broncos average 20.0 PPG and allow just 18.3. Which team controls the flow and pace of this game? I say the Chargers, who have won FIVE consecutive AFC West games after dropping nine straight. Four of Herbert's 13, 300-yard passing games have come against AFC West teams and he has thrown for 17 TDs and without a SINGLE interception in his last six starts against a division opponent. A big note of concern is obviously on the defensive side of the ball for LA, as the 37 points the Chargers conceded last weekend was the third time this season the team has allowed more than 30 points (perhaps more surprisingly, the team has won two of those three games. The Broncos' offense had the week off because of their bye and with the extra time to prepare, I expect a strong performance here from the offense against a vulnerable LA defense. Look for this total to 'fly' over the number well before the final whistle sounds. Good luck...Larry |
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11-28-21 | Steelers v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The 6-4 Cincinnati Bengals will welcome the 5-4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. The 7-3 Ravens lead the tightly-contested AFC North, with the Bengals, Steelers and 6-5 Browns in hot pursuit. Cincinnati snapped a two-game slide with a definitive win at Las Vegas (32-13) last week, while Pittsburgh saw a five-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday night in a 41-37 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers. |
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11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Sitautional Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. The defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs are coming off a 30-10 home MNF win over the Giants and will visit Indianapolis on Sunday with a record 7-3 record. No other team in the NFC South owns a winning record, so the Bucs mission the rest of the way is to try to earn the NFC's No. 1 seed (only team to get a first round bye). Currently, the Bucs trail the 9-2 Cards and 8-3 Packers. The Colts made the playoffs last season at 10-6 but opened the current season 0-3. They were 1-4 through Week 5 but have won FIVE of their last six and at 6-5, are close to being back inside the AFC playoff 'cut line!' The ageless Tom Brady threw for 307 yards and a pair of TDs in the Buccaneers' 30-10 rout of the New York Giants on Monday night. He's completing 67.1% for 3,177 yards with 29 TDs and just 8 INTs. Not bad for someone fastly approaching Medicare. Fournette has taken over the featured RB position from Jones and leads the team with 521 yards on 4.3 YPC and 4 TDs. The Bucs are averaging only 91.2 YPG (26th) keeping the constant pressure on Brady. He's got a talented receiving corps, led by WRs Godwin (63 / 5 TDs) and Evans (47 / 10 TDs). Brown (29 / 4 TDs in five games) is still out but TE Gronk (22 / 4 TDs in five games) returned LW with six catches for 71 yards on MNF. The offense averages 30.8 PPG (1st) on 406.0 YPG (2nd). A comment on the defense, shortly. Indy RB Taylor came on late in his rookie season and after a slow start to the 2021 season, he now leads the NFL with 1,122 rushing yards on 5.8 YPC with 13 TDs. He adds 32 catches (T-2nd on the team) with another 2 TDs. QB Carson Wentz was reunited with Frank Reich (now Indy's head coach) and his career has been revived. He's completing 63.0% for 2,484 yards with 17 TDs and 3 INTs. WR Pittman leads with 57 catches (13.2 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Cox may have just 15 catches but he's caught 4 TDs. The offense is averaging 28.1 PPG (5th) and the defense is allowing 22.3 PPG (11th). Taylor destroyed the Buffalo Bills last week to the tune of 185 yards and four scores while adding a fifth touchdown on a pass reception. The 41-15 blowout was old-school football at its best. The Colts now face a Tampa Bay team that is just 2-3 on the road, allowing 33.0 PPG in its three losses (at the Rams, Saints and the Washington FB team), while scoring just 23.3 PPG. Note: Tampa Bay is 5-0 at home, averaging 38.4 PPG. Jonathan Taylor became the NFL's first 1,000-yard rusher this season and this Sunday, he can break the league record for most consecutive games with 100 or more yards from scrimmage and at least one TD. He's tied with Lydell Mitchell and LaDainian Tomlinson (eight). Not bad company. The Tampa Bay defense is still somewhat banged up and looks very vulnerable against an Indy offense "hitting on all cylinders." The Colts are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four in an underdog role (3-1 SU), while Tampa is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite in 2021. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. Utah | Top | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Late Breaker is on BYU at 9:30 ET. When the 5-0 BYU Cougars and the 5-0 Utah Utes take to the court at the Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City on Saturday night, it will mark the first time since the 1912-13 season where both rivals come in undefeated and with at least five wins. Other than that, it's "just another game!"
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 96 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma at 7:30 ET. The 10-1 Oklahoma Sooners and the 10-1 Oklahoma State Cowboys meet Saturday from Boone Pickens Stadium in a series nicknamed "Bedlam." Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 ranked team and while the season was full of close calls the Sooners were 9-0 before losing 27-14 at Baylor on November 13. Oklahoma bounced back with a 28-21 win over Iowa St last Saturday and that means a win in Stillwater means the Sooners will advance to the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma St just missed making the AP's preseason poll (ranked first among "others receiving votes") but has put together a terrific season, going 10-1 (lone loss was 24-21 at Iowa St), beating three ranked opponents along the way. Cutting to the case, Oklahoma St has already clinched a spot in next Saturday's Big 12 championship game but if the Cowboys don't want to have to face the Sooners again next Saturday, they'll have to beat them here. Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler was one of the Heisman favorites but lost his job to Caleb Williams, who gave the offense a big boost initially but he's struggled recently. Wiliams enters the game having completed 65.5% for 1,418 yards with 15 TDs and 4 INTs plus he'as added 372 rushing yards (7.0 YPC / 6 TDs). However, in the loss to Baylor and last week's win over Iowa St, he completed just 17 of 36 (47.2%) for 229 yards with one TD and 3 INTs (84 yards rushing and two TDs). RB Brooks is explosive and has gained 972 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs for a running game that averages 175.4 YPG (56th). WR Haselwood has the most catches (36) and TDs (6) but averages only 10.6 YPC. Mims has 29 catches and 4 TDs plus is the "big play guy" averaging 22.2 YPC. The Oklahoma defense allows 24.2 PPG, which works when the team's offense averages 38.9 PPG QB Sanders has put up good but not great numbers for Okla St. He's completed 60.2% for 1,997 yards with 15 Tds and 6 INTs, while running for 417 yards with 5 TDs. RB Warren has topped 1,000 years (1,078) on 4.9 YPC and 10 TDs (Cowboys average 195.7 YPG to rank 33rd). WR Martin leads with 54 catches (6 Tds), while Presley has 35 catches (5 TDs). The defensive edge certainly goes to the Cowboys, who rank 3rd nationally in both points allowed (14.90 and yards allowed (261.3). This is the 116th meeting between the two schools and Oklahoma leads 90–18–7. Most notably, Oklahoma has won six straight and 16 out of the last 18 in the series. This year’s game marks the first time since 1984 that both will be ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. It should be noted that while Oklahoma is just 4-6 ATS against FBS opponents this season, Oklahoma St lost its first game this season ATS but takes a 9-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. I will also note that the Sooners are an underdog in a non-bowl game for the first time since the 2017 edition of "Bedlam" (62 straight games) when the Sooners (as a 2.5-point underdog) beat the Cowboys 62-52 in Stillwater. See you all again next Saturday in a rematch of Okla/Okla St in the Big 12's 2021 championship game. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout O/U is on Pho/Brk Under at 7:40 ET. When the Phoenix Suns ended a 10-year postseason drought last year, finishing just ONE game behind the Utah Jazz for the NBA's best regular season record. The Suns made it all the way to The Finals but after taking a 2-0 lead over the Bucks, lost FOUR in a row. Based on 'early returns,' the Suns REALLY mean business this season. 16-3 Phoenix takes the court tonight at Barclay Center and will put its 15-game winning streak on the line (the longest since a team-record 17-game run in 2006-07) to take on the 14-5 Brooklyn Nets. The Nets opened 2-3 but have won 12 of 14 since. Brooklyn suffered an 18-point loss to Golden State on Nov 16 but enters this contest on a four-game winning streak. |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on LSU at 7:00 ET. The Aggies felt that they were snubbed last season, finishing FIFTH in the CFP rankings. A%M opened No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll but after a 3-0 start, A&M lost 20-10 to Arkansas (neutral site) and at home 26-22 to Miss St. However, A&M's 41-38 home victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9 gave the team's season new 'life.' A&M added three more victories after the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies allowed only 31 points in those three games. However, A&M came up short on Nov 13 in Oxford, losing 29-19 to Ole Miss. A 52-3 win over Prairie View A&M hardly eased the pain of the Ole Miss loss. The 8-3 Aggies now finish up a disappointing season at LSU on Saturday. Talk about disappointing! LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FIVE of seven since, with their only two wins coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED' and ULM. LSU and head coach Ed Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. At 5-6, LSU's season would end with a loss to Texas A&M but a win would make the Tigers bowl-eligible and allow Orgeron to coach his final game as LSU's head coach in a bowl game. QB Calzado is hardly a star for A%M, completing only 56.0% of his passes for 1,943 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs. His top-two receivers are WR Smith (41 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (36 catches / 4 TDs) but A&M does have a pair of RBs that allow the team to average 195.0 YPG (34th). Spiller has run for 984 yards (5.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Achane has 861 yards (7.3 YPC / 9 TDs). The A&M offense averages 29.8 PPG (60) but it's the defense that carries this team, allowing 14.9 PPG (2nd in the nation!). Max Johnson is no Joe Burrow but don't put the blame on him for LSU's less-than satisfying season. He's completing 60.6% for 2,509 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs. WR Bech has 42 catches (just 3 TDs) and fellow WR Boutte has 38 but 9 TDs. A HUGE issue has been a running game that is averaging only 109.8 YPG (117th) on 3.2 YPC. That said, RB Davis-Price has 919 yards (4.8 YPC with 6 TDs) and is capable of a big game (see the Florida game when he ran for 287 yards). LSU is averaging 27.1 PPG and allowing 25.5. Remember that 2019 team? It averaged 48.4, while allowing 21.9 I will go on record to say that A&M was overrated last season and the team's effort this season, save the Alabama upset, has been disappointing as well. That defense is terrific but note that the Aggies have hardly been 'road warriors' in 2021. They edged the Buffs 10-7 at Colorado early on, then lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss (see above for both recaps). Should we really be impressed by the team's 34-14 at Missouri? I've NEVER been an Ed Orgeron fan but he is a motivator. Note that despite the team's lack of any consistent scoring, LSU had Alabama on its heels in a 20-14 loss and pushed Arkansas into OT in a 16-13 loss. LSU has six losses but those defeats have come against ranked and quality teams. Oregron's "Win One for the Gipper" pregame 'sermon' just could motivate LSU to get the outright win and give "Mr Ed" a bowl game to prepare for. Taking the points here is an easy choice. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Rutgers -1.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 83-85 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Daydream Believer is on Rutgers at 2:00 ET. Rutgers' Steve Pikiell led the Scarlet Knights to their first 20-win season in 37 years in the 2019-20 season but COVID forced the NCAA to cancel its postseason. Rutgers came back and while its record was a modest 16-12, the Scarlet Knights made the Big Dance for the first time since 1991 and won a first-round game against Clemson, before running into an outstanding Houston team (Final 4 bound!). Coming off its most decorated season in 30 years, the team has struggled in all five games and lost its last two. UMass is coming off an 8-7 season (greatly limited by COVID), giving head coach Matt McCall a very mediocre 46-61 record in his four years at the school. The Minutemen have opened 4-3 and will welcome Rutgers to the Mullins Center with a 4-3 record to open the current season. Rutgers opened 3-0 but was hardly impressive in doing so and then lost back-to-back close games 73-70 at Depaul and 53-51 at home to Lafayette. However, even if the Scarlet Knights were 5-0, there would be alarm bells. Rutgers trailed at halftime in its first four games (against Lehigh, Merrimack, NJIT and DePaul) and is averaging 63.4 PPG (304th in the nation), while shooting 24.2% on threes (346th!). The 6-6 Harper (leads in scoring (15.8) and rebounding (9.8) and is joined by double digit corers PG Baker (11.2 & 4.0 APG) and the 6-11 Omoruyi (11.4 & 7.6). Baker hurt his leg in the loss to Lafayette (three points in 26 minutes) and his status is uncertain for this one. UMass is scoring well (81.9 PPG ranks 44th) but also allows points, giving up 79.3 PPG to rank 329th. This Atlantic 10 team is 3-0 at home after outlasting in-state rival UMass Lowell 92-81 on Wednesday, as SIX players scored in double figures, led by Javohn Garcia's 18 points. 6-10 Montana transfer Michael Steadman made his debut for the Minutemen in that game and provided 10 points and four rebounds in just 12 minutes off the bench. However, leading scorer Fernandez (15.2 PPG) missed for undisclosed reasons and his availability is up in the air, here! The 6-9 Buttrick (15.1 & 4.9) will love the help he'll get from Steadman plus a trio of guards are around even if Fernandez doesn't play. That group is CJ Kelly (12.5), Rich Kelly (11.4) and Weeks (9.4). Here's the bottom line. "I think we're a lot better than this, obviously," Rutgers' head coach Steve Pikiell told reporters. "We lost two one-possession games. I'd like to be 5-0. That's where I thought we'd be right now, but we're not there and there's nothing you can do about the past. You only can work on what you need to do to get better in the future. We'll devour film, we'll keep working." It would be great if Baker is able to go but I believe Pikiell has "had enough" and will have his team ready for a very beatable UMass team. The fact that the Minutemen routed Penn State 81-56 on Nov 15 only serves as a stark reminder that Rutgers needs to "step up" its game. Don't forget, Rutgers knows how to pay D, allowing just 58.4 PPG (34th). That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +5.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Boston College at 12:00 ET. No. 18 Wake Forest will know the result of the North Carolina/NC State game (Friday night) when it takes the field at 12 noon ET in Chestnut Hill, Ma on Saturday, If NC State beats North Carolina, the Demon Deacons will need to beat BC in order to win the Atlantic Division and play Pittsburgh in the ACC title game next Saturday. Even if the Wolpack lose to the Tar Heels, the Demon Deacons would still need to win, because losses by NC St and Wake would give Clemson the Atlantic Division title! |
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11-26-21 | Wichita State v. Missouri +2.5 | Top | 61-55 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Missouri at 9:00 ET. 4-1 Wichita State and 3-2 Missouri are from bordering states but one could hardly call this a rivalry, as tonight's contest in Columbia, Mo will be just the FIFTH time (and second time since 1951) that the schools will meet on a basketball court. Wichita State is coming off a 74-73 victory over UNLV in the consolation game of the Roman Main Event in Las Vegas on Sunday, where teams and coaches had to be separated after the midcourt handshake. Meanwhile, Missouri is reeling from an 81-58 loss to Florida State Monday in the championship game of the Jacksonville Classic in Jacksonville, Fl. Cuonzo Martin (earlier stops at Mo. St, Tenn and Cal) is in his fifth season at Missouri, where he's led the Tigers to two NCAA tourneys, including last season. However, he lost three double-digit scorers from that team, guards Smith (14.3 & 3.8 APG) and Pinson (13.6) plus forward Tilman (12.4 & 7.3). This year's team is led by 6-7 Brown (16.0 & 7.2) plus the 6-6 DeGray (11.4 & 6.6), a UMass transfer. The perimeter has a quartet of guards all playing 29-plus minutes while chipping in between 7.2 and 9.4 PPG. |
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11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the Ind Pacers at 8:10 ET. The 9-10 Toronto Raptors play the 8-12 Indiana Pacers at Indianapolis on Friday night. Toronto went 58-24 in the 2018-19 season (.707) and went onto win the franchise's lone NBA title led by Kawhi. Kawhi 'flew the coop' before the 2019-20 season but the Raptors had even a better regular season record, going 53-19 (.736). However, the Raptors couldn't replicate their postseason success. Last season, Toronto tumbled to a 27-45 record. The Indiana Pacers missed the postseason with a 34-38 record last year, after playing in NINE of the previous 10. As one can see by the team's current records, the 2021-22 season has not exactly gone too well for either team. OG Anunoby has blossomed this season, averaging 20.1 & 5.5 but a hip pointer has caused him to miss FOUR straight games (he's questionable again here). Center Khem Birch (6.9 & 5.4) also did not play on Wednesday due to a knee issue. PG VanVleet (19.4-4.9-6.8) is a true All Star, as is PF Siakam (17.8 & 6.6), who is back after beginning the season injured. SG Trent (17.5) has been a valuable addition plus rookie Barnes (Florida) has been a HUGE surprise, averaging 14.8 & 8.4. When healthy (and that's the current situation), the Pacers have All Star quality players in PG Brogdon (21.3-6.1-5.8) and PF Sabonis (17.8 & 11.2) plus a deep supporting cast. That list includes guards LaVert (13.8) and rookie Duarte (13.3 & 4.2) plus center Turner (12.7 & 7.5). Playing mostly in reserve roles, swingman Holiday (10.0) plus guards McConnell (9.0 & 5.2 APG) and Lamb (7.7) are effective contributors. Here's the catch. This contest marks Toronto's final one of a six-game, 11-day road trip that began back in Portland on Nov 15. The Raptors have already beaten the Packers TWICE this season in late-Oct, when Indiana opened 1-6. The Pacers are hardly 'rolling' since but they have gone 7-6 since that 'ugly' start. Toronto's been good on the road but the Raptors are a poor 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 following an ATS victory. Indiana, on the other hand, is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against teams with winning road records. What a GREAT spot for the Pacers in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -107 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout (Apple Cup) is on Washington at 8:00 ET. COVID pretty much wiped out almost all of the 2020 season for Washington St (1-3) and its in-state rival Washington (3-1). Both teams had new head coaches in 2020, Nick Rolovich at Washington St and Jimmy Lake at Washington. As the two rivals square off for the latest edition of the series called "The Apple Cup," both teams have a different head coach. Nick Rolovich lost his job for not following the state's COVID-19 mandate, while Jimmy Lake was let go because the Huskies, who were ranked No. 20 in the AP's preseason poll, were just 4-6 through 10 games. Incredibly, after his Cougars beat lowly Arizona 48-14 last week, Washington State interim head coach Jake Dickert said, "There's still a lot to play for." He was alluding to the Apple Cup rivalry against Washington and the Cougars' impending bowl game. However, a day later, when Oregon lost, Dickert could add a potential Pac-12 North championship to the list of things his team could still accomplish. Say what? With a WSU victory in Seattle on Friday, and an Oregon State win over Oregon on Saturday, the Cougars would tie for first place atop the division with the Ducks and Beavers. Washington State would hold the tiebreaker with a 4-1 record in divisional play and would advance to the Pac-12 title game in Las Vegas on Dec 3. As for Washington and Bob Gregory, in his eighth season on the Huskies' staff, the team that was No. 20 in the preseason, can only hope to play 'spoiler' as at 4-7 / 3-5), the Huskies have failed to qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2009. Wash St QB DeLaura is completing 62.3% for 2,512 yards with 23 TDs and 9 INTs. The Cougars' running game is averaging just 123.2 YPG (105th), although RB Borhi (751 yards / 5.4 YPC / 10 TDs) is a solid player. WRs Harris (68 catches / 9 TDs) and Jackson (57 / 15.6 YPC / 7 TDs) are an impressive duo. The Wash St defense allows 25.3 PPG, ranking 58th. Washington QB Morris completes 60.6% for 2,456 yards but has a poor 14-12 TD-to-INT ratio. The running game is pretty much non-existent, averaging 108.8 YPG (118th). The Huskies are scoring only 22.3 PPG (106th), leaving it to the team's defense to keep them competitive (22.1 PPG allowed ranks 28th). Washington St has EVERYTHING to play for in this game, while Washington can only play spoiler. Does recent series count for anything? If it does, the Cougars are in trouble. Washington has dominated the Apple Cup, going 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and has won the last SEVEN overall (ALL by double digits), longest series winning streak since UW’s 8-game run from 1974-’81). Bottom line, this is basically Washington's de-facto bowl game with no postseason in its future. Here's why I believe Washington can win. In Its first game under Bob Gregory, the Huskies outgained the Buffs of Colorado by a 426-183 margin (22-9 advanatge in FDs), while holding them to just 2 of 13 on third-down opportunities. The Huskies were 'done in' by a minus-4 TO deficit. Washington St will get a chance to go bowing' in December, while Washington gets its 'bowl game' and a W-I-N on Friday at home. Good luck...Larry |
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11-26-21 | North Carolina v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Game of the Week (ACC) is on NC State at 7:00 ET. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. However, as the Tar Heels roll into Raleigh to take on rival North Carolina St, Mack Brown's team is an UNDERWHELMING 6-5. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren's Wolfpack come in 8-3 (5-2 ACC) and can still take the ACC Atlantic Division with a win and a Wake Forest loss on Saturday at Boston College. Sam Howell has had an excellent season but NOT a Heisman-like season, completing 63.5% for 2,704 yards with 22 TDs and 8 INTs, while rushing for 717 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs). He sat out last week (upper body injury) and his status for this game has not been determined. Howell's running plus that of RB Chandler (1,004 yards (6.0 YPC / 13 TDs) gives the Tar Heels an excellent rushing attack (212.7 YPFG to rank 20th). WR Downs is having a terrific season with 90 catches (13.3 YPC / 8 TDs) plus Green may only have 26 receptions, but he averages 20.3 YPC with 5 TDs. North Carolina can score (37.0 PPG ranks 14th) but the defense is 'ugly,' allowing 31.4 PPG (98th). QB Devin Leary did not come into the season with the hype of Howell but is having a terrific season, completing 65.8% for 3,186 yards with 31 TDs and only 5 INTs. RBs Knight (684 yards / 5.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Person (573 yards / 4.6 YPC / 5 TD) are solid but the team is only averaging 127.8 YPG on the ground (98th). Emezie leads with 55 catches (4 TDs), while Thomas (47 / 7 TDs) and Carter (31 / 6 TDs) give Leary multiple options. The offense is not far behind North Carolina's (33.0 PPG ranks 24th) but the HUGE edge comes on the defensive side of the ball, where the Wolfpack are holding opponents to 18.7 PPG (13th), almost two TDs less than the Tar Heels' D. Here's the bottom line, Howell's status is up in the air and the Tar Heels would LOVE to hand their rival a loss, knocking them out a chance to win the Atlantic Division. However, North Carolina is 0-4 away from Chapel Hill, losing 17-10 at Va Tech, 45-22 to Ga Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 44-34 at Notre Dame and 30-23 at Pitt. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren just could have a 'magical' season in 2021. A win here gives NC St nine wins and could lead to a championship game appearance and a bowl berth. He's been at NC St since 2013 and has led NC St to bowls in seven of the last eight years but his teams have never won more than nine games. NC St can't control what Wake Forest does but the Wolfpack can win (and cover) here against a team that hasn't wom awy from home in four previosu tries, while allowing 39.3 PPG in its last three away games Good luck...Larry |
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11-25-21 | Louisville +2 v. Mississippi State | Top | 72-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Louisville at 9:30 ET. 4-0 Mississippi State and 3-1 Louisville have gotten off to good starts at home, as both hit the road for the first time this season when the two schools meet in the Bahamas Championship in Nassau on Thursday night. Both teams are led by outstanding head coaches, Ben Howland of Miss St and Chris Mack of Louisville. However, each team is coming off a disappointing 2020-21 season. Louisville was just 13-7, after the program had won 20-plus games in 18 of the previous 19 seasons, while Miss St had averaged 22.7 wins per season the previous three, before last year's 18-15 finish. Both teams have made 'heavy' use of the transfer portal. Louisville's leading scorer is Florida transfer Locke (16.0), who is joined in the starting backcourt with Marshall transfer West (7.0) and returning swingman Davis (7.3). The 6-11 Williams (6.8 & 9.3) and the 6-8 Withers (7.5& 5.8) are both returnees but the 6-7 Cross (9.0) comes via Miami. Throw in the 6-8 Williamson's 8.3 & 6.5 numbers and Mack has PLENTY to work with in the 2021-22 season. PG Molinar (15.8-4.0-5.3) is back for Howland and is leading the way. However, fellow guard Moore (13.8) is an NC St transfer plus the 6-9 Brooks (11.5 & 7.3) comes via North Carolina and the 6-7 Jeffries (11.3 & 5.3) via Memphis. This is the first real test for each team. A quick look shows that Miss St is allowing only 52.0 PPG (3rd) on 34.2% shooting but again, the competition has not been great. The Bulldogs are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games and I believe the Cards should be favored by a handful of points in this one (I took 1 1/2-points!). Expect Louisville to deliver the goods here on Thanksgiving. Good luck...Larry |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Turkey Shoot is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints are both dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thanksgiving night in New Orleans plus both are trying to "regain their footing." The Bills were in the AFC championship game last season (13-3 regular season) but after a surprising upset at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1, won their next FOUR games, averaging 39.0 per contest. However, a 34-31 loss to Titans began a slide in which Buffalo has lost THREE of five and at 6-4, find themselves a half-game back of the 7-4 Patriots in the AFC East. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints then lost back-to-back games by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). Last Sunday, the Saints lost 40-29 at Philly, for their THIRD straight loss. Buffalo QB Josh Allen to his place among the elite QBs last season and through the Bill's first seven games, had a 17-3 TD to INT ratio. However, over the last three games (two losses), he has four TDs and five INTs. He's still having a good season (65.7% / 2,811 yards / 21-8 ratio with 340 rushing yards and 3 TDs) but it's time for him to step up. The running game is nothing special (118.8 YPG ranks 12th) but Allen has a strong cast of receivers. Diggs leads the way 60 / 6 TDs0 and possession receiver Beasley has 57 catches but a YPC average of only 8.8. Samuels has 33 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and E Knox (28 / 5 TDs) complete the major contributors. However, Beasley's been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The defense has remained solid throughout the ups and downs, allowing 17.6 PPG (2) and just 283.7 YPG (1st). Trevor Siemian finished up for Winston in the Tampa Bay win but despite the fact that he had two straight interception-free games in his first two games as the Saints' starter, the Saints lost both contests. That said, Siemian brought his team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons to briefly take a lead with a minute left. He then brought the team back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit to the brink of tying the Titans. He threw three TDs at Philly (team's third straight loss) but had two INTs and a modest 214 passing yards. The Saints have played the last two weeks without injured RB Alvin Kamara, their most productive offensive player (530 yards rushing and a team-high 32 receptions). Kamara (knee) remains questionable for this game and so is his backup Ingram, who ran for 88 yards at Philly (was limited in practice this week). The Saints' offense this season has borne little resemblance to the prolific Payton-designed attacks that led the NFL in passing a half dozen times while Drew Brees was the QB New Orleans ranks second to last in passing, averaging 203.4 yards per game through the air (26th). It hasn't helped that top receiver Michael Thomas is missing this season because of complications related to his offseason ankle surgery. The Saints have won the last five meetings with the Bills, although the last meeting came back in 2017. However, New Orleans is 3-0 all-time on Thanksgiving and is playing on the holiday for the THIRD time in four seasons. Sure, Buffalo is the better team but so were the defending champion Bucs when they lost 36-27 back in Week 8. BTW...Wouldn't it be nice if all we had to do to win in the NFL was to "pick the better team?" The Saints have lost three games in a row for the first time since 2016 but take notice of this trend. The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 Week 1 shocker over the Packers and have been trading ATS wins and losses every single week. My bet says this trend (or pattern, or whatever you want to refer to it as) continues Thanksgiving night with the home dog 'barking' VERY loudly. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Thursday Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET. The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin will take Ole Miss (9-2, 5-2 SEC) to Starkville to play Mississippi State (7-4, 4-3) in the Egg Bowl, the state's annual Thanksgiving matchup between these two in-state rivals. Two of the nation's best QBs will be the featured attraction. Ole Miss' Matt Corral is completing 67.5% for 3,100 yards with 19 TDs and just three INTs. He's also run for 552 yards and 10 more scores. His counterpart is Mississippi State's sophomore Will Rogers. He is completing a staggering 76% for 4,113 yards with 34 TDs and eight INTs. NO QB in the nation has put up the numbers Rogers has in his last nine games, as he has clipsed 300 passing yards in each contest, with more than 400 yards in four of them! The edge for Ole Miss on the offensive side of the ball is a running game that averages 231.1 YPG (8th), as RBs Ealy (643 yards / 6.1 YPC / 5 TDs) and Connor (561 yards / 5.2 YPC / 11 TDs) join Corral for quite a balanced attack that is averaging 517.4 YPG overall (5th). WR Drummond is the best receiver (53 / 8 TDs) but four other WRs average between 15.6 and 22.1 YPC! In fact, Ole Miss is the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! Th e defense is allowing 25.4 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 36.4 points. Obviously, Rogers has thrived in Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense but with the Bulldogs' running game averaging a putrid 62.1 YPG (129th) on 3.0 YPC, there is never any room for error with Miss St's passing game. WR Polk leads the way with 88 catches (9 TDs) and much like the Rebels' receiver corps, the Bulldogs have plenty of depth and talent. Much like Ole Miss, the Mississippi St defense allows 24.7 PPG but it doesn't own the kind of balance the Ole Miss offense has. Ole Miss has gotten healthier as the season has progressed and was clearly looking ahead last Saturday in only beating Vandy 31-17 but a win here would be VERY special. The Ole Miss program owns seven career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. A win here gets Ole Miss to 10-2 and could possibly lead to a New Year's Six Bowl berth. "Hotty Toddy!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-24-21 | Texas A&M v. Notre Dame -3 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Notre Dame at 11:30 ET. Fifth place in the eight-team relocated Maui Invitational comes down to 5-1 Texas A&M and 3-1 Notre Dame on Wednesday night in Las Vegas. Both teams lost Monday but each bounce back with wins last night. The Aggies got 15 points and five steals from Quenton Jackson, marking his fifth consecutive game with at least 13 points, and held on for a 57-50 win over Butler. Texas A&M led by 12 points at halftime but by just three with 27 seconds to play. Notre Dame trailed by four twice in the first half against Division II Chaminade but used a 21-0 run over the first seven minutes of the second half to seize control of the game the Irish won 90-64. Buzz Williams is in his third season at College Station but has gone a disappointing 24-24 in his first two. Jackson is the team's leading scorer at a modest 12.2 PPG, while the only other player in double digits is the 6-7 Henry Coleman (11.0 & 6.2), who pulled down a game-high 10 rebounds for the Aggies. Three more guards are just under double digits in Radford (9.8 & 6.0), Williams (9.8) and Gordon (8.0). Defense has so far been the key for Williams' team, as the Aggies are allowing just 58.2 PPG (35th). Notre Dame's Mike Brey began at South Bend way back in the 200-01 season and while he's led the Irish to 12 NCAA appearances, the most recent was back in 2017. Notre Dame is off a poor 11-15 last season and this year's team is pretty much new, as four starters are gone. The 6-9 Paul Atkinson (Yale transfer) is leading Notre Dame by averaging 15.0 points and 8.5 rebounds, while getting help from guards Dane Goodwin (14.3 & 5.3), Wesley (11.0) and Ryan (10.3). A real area of concern is guard Prentiss Hubb, who led the team last season by averaging 14.6 points but is averaging only 6.3 PPG on 24.3% shooting, including 14.3% on threes. He HAS to improve, right? Joining Atkinson up front is the 6-10 Laszewski (7.8 & 11.5). I had a free play win on St Mary's over Notre Dame on Monday but I believe the Irish match up VERY well here vs A&M. The Irish have the defense to match the Aggies, as the Irish are allowing just 59.8 PPG but Atkinson and Laszewski will be too much for A&M's 6-7 Coleman and Notre Dame's perimeter game is better and DEEPER than A&M's. Good luck...Larry |
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11-24-21 | Blazers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Sac Kings at 10:10 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers have made the NBA playoffs in each of the last EIGHT years, while the Sacramento Kings own a 15-year postseason drought! Other than that minor fact, it's hard to tell these two franchises apart! The Blazers are near-perfect at home (9-1) but will bring a 1-7 record with them to Sacramento, which is just 6-12 (2-7 at home) and will be playing its second game after the firing of head coach Luke Walton. The Blazers have been led by one of the NBA's best backcourt duos for quite some time now. Lillard (21.8 & 7.9 APG) has taken over the scoring lead from backcourt partner McCollum, shaking off a poor start by scoring at least 20 points in EIGHTstraight games. McCollum (21.0-4.2-4.3) is right behind Lillard, as the duo is joined in the starting lineup by SF Powell (16.7), center Nurkic (10.8 & 11.8) and PF Covington (7.1 & 4.8). Guard Simons (11.6) plus forwards Little (8.2 & 5.4) and Nance (6.6 & 5.1) add depth off the bench. There is NOTHING wrong with the talent Sacramneto puts out on the court, it's just the Kings can't seem to "get it right." Fox (19.9 & 5.6 APG), Haliburton (12.1 & 5.1 APG) and Hield (16.8) are a terrific guard trio plus SF Barnes (19.3 & 7.4) and undersized center Holmes (14.4 & 9.8) are quality players. Harkless is a nominal starter at PF but big men like Metu (8.7), Len (6.2 & 4.1) and Thompson (4.8 & 5.3) are gaining more playing time. Baylor rookie Mitchell (8.7) has also shown promise on the perimeter. Here's the 'dope.' Portland's only road win came back on Nov 12 in a 104-92 victory at Houston, which owns an NBA-worst 1-16 record. Ironically, Portland's only home loss came in its season-opener, when the Kings beat the Blazers 24-121 victory. "Revenge" would be an easy call but "not so fast." Sacramento forward Harrison Barnes established career bests of 36 points and eight 3-pointers in that win and I believe Alvin Gentry can help this team to perform up to the level of its talents. The Kings have lost EIGHT of nine (including four straight) and their first game under Gentry looked a lot like most Kings games. "I do think our confidence has been rattled a bit," Gentry said. "You do have a tendency to go through that somewhat. The one message I said from Day 1 is that the only thing and the only one that's going to rescue us from this is us. There's nobody in this league, not in the 35 years I've been in it, that has any sympathy for us. So you have to come together and you have to find a way to bail yourself out of this." Here's the perfect spot for the Kings to earn a much-needed win. They should have some confidence from theri win at Portland but they also catch Portland on the second of a back-to-back, having won 119-100 last night at home over the Nuggets. Good luck...Larry |
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11-24-21 | Vanderbilt -2 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 68-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Vandy at 9:00 ET. The Pitt Panthers have been ravaged by transfers, injuries and other issues over the last year.Jeff Capel has had a tough start at Piit (40-48) and prepared for the season without his top three scorers from a year ago (one moved on to the NBA and two transferred to other programs). The Panthers then lost their fourth- and fifth-leading scorers from last season due to a suspension and an ACL tear, respectively.Pitt started 0-2 but has bounced back with back-to-back wins. Jeff Capel knows Vandy head coach well, as Jerry Stackhouse, like Capel, is a "Dookie." Stackhouse has opened his career at Vandy 20-37 in his first two seasons, so this year's 3-1 start is promising The 'Dores travel to Pittsburgh led by a backcourt duo of Wright (18.& 5.23) and Pippen (16.5 & 3.8). Wright had 28 points and Tyrin Lawrence (8.0 & 3.3) had 20 points (each set a career high in scoring), as part of a strong bounce-back effort in which Vandy responded from an ugly 48-37 loss to VCU by defeating Winthrop 77-63 on Saturday. Stackhouse got great news when Pippen decided to pull himself out of the NBA Draft and return to Nashville but bad news when the 7-0 Robbins (Minnesota grad transfer who averaged 11.7 & 6.6 Y), was sidelined by a foot injury with no timetable for a return. The 6-9 Hughley leads Pitt in scoring (16.0) and rebounding (8.0) but guard Odukale (11.5-3.8-3.8) is the only other player in double digits. Some good news was that freshman Nate Santos (7.5 & 4.8) rose to the occasion with 14 points and eight rebounds in Friday's win over Towson. I won't make too much of Pitt's wins over NC-Wilmington (59-51) and Towson (63-59) and the oddsmakers agree, making Vandy, a team with a 20-37 two-year record, a small road favorite. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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11-24-21 | Ohio State +2 v. Florida | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Tourney Takedown is on Ohio St at 8:30 ET. Full, detailed analysis Wednesday morning by 10:00 ET. |
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11-24-21 | Suns v. Cavs +7.5 | Top | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cle Cvs at 7:10 ET. The Phoenix Suns used their perfect 8-0 record in the Orakndo 'bubble' two years ago, to end a 10-year playoff drought last season, finishing just ONE game behind the Utah Jazz for the best regular season record. The Suns extended their win streak to 13 games in Monday's opener of a four-game road trip with a 115-111 victory over the San Antonio Spurs and can match the third-longest win streak in franchise history with a victory tonight in Cleveland on Wednesday. The Cavaliers have been an early-season surprise but their 117-112 loss to Brookly on Sunday give them a season-high four-game losing streak. |
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11-23-21 | Gonzaga v. UCLA +6 | Top | 83-63 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Marquee Classic is on UCLA at 10:00 ET. It's just a little more than seven months ago that Gonzaga eked out a 93-90 OT win over UCLA in a national semifinal contest on Jalen Suggs' 37-foot three-pointer. Gonzaga opened as the AP's preseason No. 1 and has began 5-0, while UCLA opened No. 2 and has matched the Bulldogs by starting 5-0 as well. The nation's top-two teams square off Tuesday night in the Good Sam Empire Classic in Las Vegas, making it the first game between No. 1 and No. 2 since Michigan State beat Kentucky 69-62 in the Champions Classic to open the 2019-20 season (fourth No. 1 vs No. 2 since 2016). Gone from Gonzaga's near-perfect team last year are the 6-7 Kispert (18.6 & 5.0), PG Suggs (14.4-5.3-4.5) and guard Ayayi (12.0 & 6.9) but Mark Few's team hasn't missed a beat. The 6-10 Timme (18.8 & 5.6) and PG Nembard (7.0 & 4.8 APG) return, joined by a recruiting haul that netted Gonzaga THREE of nation's top 25 high school recruits in ESPN's rankings, including 7-footer Chet Holmgren, the top overall prospect who has been called a "unicorn." Holmgren has averaged 12.8 & 6.8. 6-7 freshman Julian Strawther is averaging 12.8 & 6.8 plus transfer Rasir Bolton (Iowa State/Penn State) is the fourth double digit scorer at 10.4. The above-mentioned are the starting-five plus 6th-man Hickman chips in 9.4. The bottom line is this; Gonazag is averaging 93.2 PPG (2nd) on 55.5% shooting (1st), while holding opponents to 59.8 PPG. UCLA has the most-talented perimeter group in college basketball, as a trio of 6-7 players (guards/swingmen) lead the way. Juzang (19.8 & 4.2) is the top-scorer, while Jaquez and Bernard each average 15.4 PPG, plus add 7.6 and 4.8 rebounds, respectively. PG Campbell (10.8 & 4.8 APG) runs the show plus guards Singleton (9.0), Clark (6.8 & 5.2) and Watson (6.4) add incredible depth. The 6-9 Hill hurt his knee in the team's first game (return status uncertain) but 6-10 senior Johnson (4.2 & 7.0) has filled in admirably. I guess one could make a case for either side but I just love Mick Cronin's team and I believe its OUTSTANDING perimeter game (and depth) will keep the Bruins in this game all the way. I could argue the revenge motive and it deserves a mention but more importantly, I think this Bruins team has an eerily similar make-up to the Baylor team that routed Gonzaga in the national championship game last year. Yes, I'll issue an "Upset Alert" but of course, I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-21 | George Mason v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 74-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Washington at 9:00 ET. It's the opening round of the Crossover Classic in Sioux Falls, SD on Monday, as 4-1 George Mason takes on 2-2 Washington. George Mason has a new coach in the 32-year-old Kim English (first-ever head coaching gig). Washinbton head coach Mike Hopkins is in his fifth year at Seattle. English is a former standout at Missouri who played briefly in the NBA. he inherited a team that was 13-9 last season but saw the transfer of four starters. However, he reloaded with his own set of new players. Guard D'Shawn Schwartz (Colorado) is averaging 15.4 points per game and shooting 47.1 percent from beyond the arc, while adding 5.8 RPG. 6-7 guard Davonte Gaines (Tennessee) is the top rebounder at 8.8 RPG, while averaging 12.8 points. Then there is guard DeVon Cooper (Morehead State), who adds 12.4 PPG. 6-9 holdover Josh Oduro is the leading scorer (15.8) and holdover guard Xavier Johnson, leads in assists (4.6 per game) and adds 7.8 PPG and 5-0 RPG. George Mason owns a "signature win" when it beat 20th-ranked Maryland, 71-66 (1st win in 10 tries vs Maryland) but enters this tournament off its first loss, 67-64 Friday night at James Madison. Hopkins was a longtime assistant to Jim Boeheim and won 21 and 27 games in his first two seasons in Seattle but the Huskies fell to 15 wins in his third season and then had a 'nightmare' season last year, going 5-21 (4-16 in the Pac 12). It's been a COMPLETE makeover (turnover) for Washington for the current season, losing players right and left to the transfor portal but also the team was able to bring in a similar group of transfers, themselves. Transfers like Brown (20.8-3.3-4.0), Matthews (11.3 & 5.8), Davis (7.8 & 4.0) and Fuller (7.0 have made an immediate impact among the newcomers. Returning players like the 6-6 Bey (11.3 & 5.8) and the 6-11 Roberts (4.5 & ) have both begun playing well. Washington opened 2-1 but fell to 2-2 after a late lead against Wyoming on Thursday, before losing 77-72 in overtime. The Huskies missed 13 of their last 14 tries from beyond the arc. "They went zone and we weren't able to get great shots," Hopkins said. "It's a fine line. We missed some bunnies. We had some right there that hopefully the next game we don't miss." Washington needs to get some wins, as it opens December with a game at Arizona, a home game vs No. 2 UCLA and then a game at No. 1 Gonzaga. George Mason has been the better team so far but Hopkins' 2-3 zone is the same one used by his mentor (Jim Boeheim) with so much success for decades at Syracuse. Hopkins NEEDS some wins here in South Dakota and grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-21 | Pacers +3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
My 9* Late Breaker is on the Ind Pacers at 8:10 ET. The Indiana Pacers missed the postseason with a 34-38 record last year, after playing in NINE of the previous 10. They visit Chicago Monday night with an underachieving 7-11 record, for a road game with the 12-5 Bulls. Indiana snapped a three-game losing streak Saturday with a 111-94 home victory against New Orleans. The Pacers seemingly got the message from a night before, when coach Rick Carlisle benched the starters midway through the third quarter of an eventual three-point loss at Charlotte. The Pacers' second and third units nearly helped the team erase a 25-point deficit against the Hornets. Saturday night, Indiana led New Orleans by 13 after one quarter before pulling away behind a 38-18 third quarter. The Pacers have talent, led by PG Brogdon (21.2-6.2-6.0) and PF Sabonis (17.8 & 11.1). LeVert (14.4) and rookie Duarte (13.4 & 4.2) are excellent perimeter scorers, while Turner (12.7 & 7.4) is an effective center. Swingman Holiday (9.4) and PG O'Connell (9.2 & 3.2 APG) are also valuable contributors. The Bulls have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free-agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent. There were 'whispers' that the 32-year-old DeMar DeRozan was on the downside of his career but he's been one of the best players in the NBA so far this season, averaging 26.8-5.4-5.2. He has energized the Chicago Bulls, along with LaVine (26.5-5.6-3.7), Vucevic (13.6 & 10.8) and Ball (12.7-5.2-4.1). Chicago is coming off a come-from-behind, 109-103 victory against the visiting New York Knicks on Sunday and will look to extend its home winning streak to four (Bulls are 6-2 at home on the season). Vucevic returned to the team Sunday (has been sidelined since Nov 11) but it still is unknown when he'll be able to resume game action. Head coach Billy Donovan confirmed Sunday that "it's all up to the doctors at this point," saying "the next step is clearing all the cardiovascular protocols." I'm expecting this Indiana team to start playing up to its talent level and why not start here, as the Bulls returned home after a 5-game West Coast trip and are now playing on back-to-back nights. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-21 | Belmont +6 v. LSU | Top | 53-83 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Belmont at 8:00 ET. 3-1 Belmont and 4-0 LSU will face each other Monday night in Baton Rouge, before traveling for Thanksgiving weekend tournaments. Belmont is used to winning, having won 20-plus games in 15 of the last 16 seasons (exception was a 19-win season), with EIGHT trips to the Big Dance. The Bruins return all five starters from last season's 26-4 team. LSU's Wiil Wade had success at VCU (took over for Shaka Smart) and taht got him the gig at LSU. His first team went 18-15 (NIT) but his teams have won 25, 21 and 19 games the last three seasons (two NCAAs, which would have been three except for COVID cancelation)
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Cha/Was Over at 7:10 ET. The Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards have each produced a five-game winning streak this month as the 10-8 Hornets travel to D.C. to take on the 11-5 Wizards. Charlotte lost five straight from Nov 1-8 but then won FIVE in row, before seeing its streak end with a 115-105 loss Saturday night in Atlanta. Washington won FIVE in a row from Nov 5-15 and welcomes the Hornets to the Verizon Center where the Wizards own a 7-1 record, including the last four. Charlotte is led by the outstanding trio of Bridges (21.6-7.6-3.4), Ball (19.3-7.8-7.7) and Hayward (17.7-5.1-3.5). Plumlee (6.7 & 7.4) has started all 16 games at center plus perimeter players Rozier (14.7) and Oubre (13.7 & 4.2) have been regular contributors. Beal (23.7-5.2-5.9) and Dinwiddie (15.7-5.0-5.6) make for an excellent backcourt duo, joined by a trio of players I've dubbed, "Lakers East!" PF Harrell (17.1 & 8.4), SF Kuzma (13.6 & 9.6) and guard Caldwell-Pope (9.6) are very happy on the East Coast. Charlotte has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six, but I think that the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned here for the Hornets. One of those "unders" included a low-scoring 97-87 win at home over these very Wizards on November 17th. The Hornets have struggled defensively, conceding 118 PPG over the last two weeks plus Charlotte ranks second in the NBA in scoring (112.3 PPG). This is a difficult stretch for the Hornets, who began a road stretch Saturday and will be playing their THIRD game in four nights. I think that will make them even more vulnerable defensively and therefore I'm Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-21 | Ohio State +2 v. Seton Hall | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* Tourney Takedown is on Ohio St at 6:30 ET. Seton Hall has opened 3-0, including a surprising 67-65 win on the road on Tuesday at then-No. 4 Michigan. Ohio St opened 3-0 but fell 71-65 at Xavier on Friday night. The two schools meet tonight at the Fort Myers Tip-Off in Florida.
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11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 128 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:20 ET. The 5-3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to LA's SoFi Stadium for an important game with the 5-4 LA Chargers. Pittsburgh trails 6-3 Baltimore in the AFC North, with 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland still 'hanging around' As for the Chargers, they are tied with the Raider, a half-game back of the first-place Chiefs (6-4) in the AFC West, while the Broncos lurk at 5-5. Clearly, this is a game BOTH teams desperately want (and NEED) to win! The Steelers opened 1-3 but had won FOUR in a row, before playing to a tie last Sunday, against winless Detroit. Big Ben was supposedly washed up but he had completed 65.6% for 1,986 yards with 10 TDs and just 4 INTs through eight games, before missing last week because of COVID. Mason Rudolph got the start and was 30 of 50 for 242 yards with one TD and one INT (update to come). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 646 yards rushing (3.7 YPC and 4TDs) plus has added 44 catches (2nd-most on the team), with 2 TDs. WR Johnson lead witch 52 catches (3 TDs) and TE Freiermuth has 32 catches and a team-high 4 TDs. With Smith-Schuster on IR, the Steelers are hoping WR Claypool (29 catches) will be able to play (he is questionable). The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 PPG (26th) but as always are playing good defense, allowing 20.6 PPG (8th). QB Justin Herbert had a good rookie season and opened the current season like gangbusters. His YTD numbers still look impressive (65.4% for 2,545 yards with 19 TDs and 7 iNTs) but he's really fallen off, as the Chargers are 1-3 after a 4-1 start. In those three losses, he completed just 55.6% for an average of 204.3 YPG with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. RB Ekeler is a terric all-purpose player, rushing for 523 yards (4.7 YPC with 5 TDs), while catching 39 passes for 4 TDs. WRs Allen (65 / 2 TDs) and Wiliams (41 / 6 TDs) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (28 / 2 TDs) is solid. Here's the deal. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin didn't rule out the possibility that Roethlisberger could play Sunday, but the game plan this week will revolve around backup Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh hasn’t lost in its last five games (4-0-1) but a closer look reveals the Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, needing referee-aided assistance to nip the Bears two weeks ago at home on MNF and this past Sunday, couldn’t even beat the winless Lions playing to a comical 16-16 tie. The Chargers are averaging 29.7 PPG in their last four home contests. The Chargers go on the road for the next two games, so a "W" here is almost a 'MUST!' I got down early on LA (-3.5) but the line jumped with the news that Big Ben may not play. He may and if so, the line will (should) come back down. Either way, my play is on the Chargers. Good luck...Larry |
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11-21-21 | St Bonaventure -4 v. Marquette | Top | 70-54 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
My CBB 9* Tourney Game of the Week is on St Bonny's at 7:30 ET. No. 22 St. Bonaventure (4-0) will face 5-0 Marquette in Sunday's championship game of the Shriners Children's Charleston Classic in South Carolina. The Bonnies are the defending Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament champions and were ranked No. 23 in the Associated Press preseason poll, the school's first ranking in the media poll since January 1971 (Can you say Bob Lanier?). Marquette is coming off an 11-13 season and lost all FIVE starters plus added a new head coach in Shaka Smart. |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 4:25 ET. The Cowboys were just 6-10 last season (5-11 ATS) but enter this Week 11 matchup in Kansas City against the Chiefs at 7-2 and an 8-1 ATS mark. The Chiefs have struggled on and off in 2021 but THREE straight wins have them at 6-4 and atop the AFC West, a division they've won in each of the last five seasons. However, KC's ATS woes have continued, as they are just 3-7, after ending the 2020's regular season on a 1-7 ATS run.
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11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders UNDER 50 | Top | 32-13 | Win | 100 | 97 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* featured Sunday O/U play is on Cin/LV Under at 4:05 ET. The Bengals (5-4) and Raiders (5-4) were each atop their respective divisions a few weeks ago but both enter this contest in Las Vegas on two-game losing streaks. The Bengals took over first place in the AFC North with a dominating 41-17 win at Baltimore on Oct 24 but they followed their best performance of the season (520 total yards) with two of their two worst outings, falling 34-31 to the last-place Jets before getting blown out at home 41-16 by the last-place Browns on Nov 7. The Raiders also opened up 5-2 and appeared to be a threat to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West. However, a 23-16 loss to the Giants followed by a 41-14 setback to the visiting Chiefs on Sunday have dropped the Raiders to third place in the division. |
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11-21-21 | Princeton v. Oregon State -4.5 | Top | 81-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Oregon St at 3:00 ET. Oregon State head coach Wayne Tinkle came from Montana to take over at Oregon St in the 2014-15 season. His overall record entering this season was just 113-109 but he did lead last year's team to the Pac 12 tourney championship and all the way to the Elite 8. Princeton's Mitch Henderson had four, 20-win seasons at Princeton in his first nine seasons at the school (just one NCAA appearance) but like all coaches and players, Ivy League schools did not play due to COVID.
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11-21-21 | Ravens -4.5 v. Bears | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT) but then won FIVE of six. However, they've lost TWO of their last three, including 22-10 at Miami on a Thursday night game in Week 10. Baltimore is currently 6-3 but the AFC North also features 5-3-1 Pittsburgh, 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland. The Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost FOUR in a row. Chicago 'lives' in the NFC North, a division that's dominated by the 8-2 Packers and embarrassed by the 0-8-1 Lions.
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11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints have lost two games in a row by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). The 4-6 Philadelphia Eagles welcome the Saints to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday coming off perhaps their best game of the season, a 30-13 victory at Denver last Sunday.
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11-21-21 | Boise State +1.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 60-50 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Daydream Believer is on Boise St at 1:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis Sunday morning by 8:30 ET. |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 63 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Utah at 7:30 ET. The 9-1 Oregon Ducks retained their No. 3 spot in the CFP rankings on Tuesday and will take a five-game winning streak into their Saturday night game in Salt Lake City against the 7-3 Utah Utes (Utah moved into the CFP rankings at No. 23). Oregon is 6-1 in league play and leads the Pac-12 North by two games, while Utah's 6-1 league mark gives them just a one-game edge over Arizona St in the Pac-12 South. Oregon can clinch the North title and a spot in the conference championship game with a win Saturday or an Oregon State loss. Utah can clinch the South with a win over the Ducks or an Arizona State loss. This could very well be a preview of the Pac 12 championship game.
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11-20-21 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -7 | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 109 h 3 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Game of the Year is on Mia-Fl at 7:30 ET. A pair of 5-5 ACC teams square off at Hard rock Stadium in Miami on Saturday night, as the Va Tech Hokies meet the Miami Hurricanes. Both are also 3-3 in the ACC's Coastal Division and are no threat to reach the ACC title game but both are just ONE win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Virginia Tech hosted the Duke Blue Devils last Saturday and came away with a 48-17 win. QB Braxton Burmeister threw for 215 yards, three TDs, one interception, plus added 71 rushing yards on the ground. RBs Raheem Blackshear and Keshawn King combined for 207 yards and two TD on just 21 carries. Miami visited the Florida State Seminoles last Saturday and left with a heart breaking 31-28 defeat. The Hurricanes overcame a 17-0 deficit to take a 28-20 lead early in the fourth quarter but FSU scored 10 points in the final five minutes to get the win. QB Tyler Van Dyke went 25/47 threw for 316 yards, four touchdowns (to four different players!) and two interceptions. |
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11-20-21 | Tulsa +4 v. Rhode Island | Top | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Tulsa. at 7:30 ET. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Rhode Island Rams meet Saturday at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Fl. Tulsa has opened 2-1 and Rhode Island 3-0. Golden Hurricane head coach Frank Haith has led Miami and Missouri to NCAA berth and begins his eight year at Tulsa, coming off an 11-12 season. He won 23 and 20 games in his first two seasons at Tulsa but his lone 20-win team in the last five seasons came in the 2019-202 COVID season (postseason canceled). 6-7 senior Horne (20.0 & 8.0) and sophomore guard Griffin (17.0) lead the way, getting help from senior guard Jackson (9.0 & 3.7) and 6-9 senior Idowu (6.3 & 6.3). David Cox is in his fourth season at Rhode Island but after 18- and 21-win seasons in his first two, his Rams went just 10-15 last year. The Mitchell twins, the 6-10 Mahki (11.3 & 10.3) and the 6-9 Makhel (9.7 & 5.7) are joined by guards Leggett (11.3 & 3.7), Sheppard (10.3 & 3.3 APG) and El-Amin (10.0). Both teams are playing away from home for the first time and both play very good defense. Tulsa can't match the size of the Rams' Mitchell twins but Tulsa will own the two-best players on the floor, in Horne and Griffin (see above). On the sidelines, I'll take Haith over Cox any day. No reason that I can see why Rhode Island is the favorite. Expect Tulsa to come 'Golden' in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-21 | UCLA v. USC +3.5 | Top | 62-33 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle 4 LA' is on USC at 4:00 ET. The UCLA Bruins and the USC Trojans meet in Pac-12 action from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday with the winner earning the "Victory Bell." The Bruins are 6-4 (4-3 in the Pac 12) while the Trojans are 4-5 (3-4). The Bruins are coming off a 44-20 win over Colorado in their last game, after back-to-back losses to Oregon and Utah, which took them out of any Pac 12 championship game hopes. USC opened the season as the AP's No. 15 team but opened just 3-2 and then saw its season crumble, with just ONE win (over then winless Arizona) in its next four games. Last week's game at Cal was postponed and will be made up Dec 4. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-21 | Chattanooga v. VCU -4.5 | Top | 56-54 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on VCU at 4:00 ET. Lamont Paris enters his fifth season at Chattanooga and after going 22043 in his first two, has gone 38-20 in his last two. The Mocs returned four starters from last season and have opened 3-0. VCU's Mike Rhoades has some pretty good credentials in his first four seasons in Richmond, going 80-41 with two NCAA bids. Last season's NCAA bid ended before his team was able to play its first round game with Oregon, as the VCU team had a COVID outbreak. VCU has opened 2-1 this season and the Rams welcome the Mocs to Siegel Center for a late afternoon game. Chattanooga is led by the excellent backcourt duo of Jean-Baptiste (17.30 and PG Smith (14.7-5.7-5.30 plus the 6-6 Banks (12.3 & 5.7) and the 6-7 Hankton (8.0 & 5.7) up front. The Rams lost Hyland (9.5 & 4.7) to the NBA and this season, have used a seven-man rotation but not a single player is in double digits. 6-5 senior forward Williams (9.3 & 4.30 and senior guard Curry (9.3) come the closest. At first blush, taking the points may seem like the 'right side' but "Not so Fast!" Rhoades is an excellent coach and the Siegel Center has earned a reputation as one of the most difficult venues for visiting teams. With full crowds this season, expect VCU to centuries its home success (42-7 at home the previous three seasons). VCU may not score much but the Rams are allowing 49.7 PPG (3rd) on 30.4% shooting (3rd), including 19.0% (4th) on threes. Home team wins by double-digits! Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Purdue | Top | 84-93 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on North Carolina at 4:00 ET. No. 6 Purdue and No. 17 North Carolina will meet Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament in Uncasville, Ct. 3-0 Purdue has dominated three games at home, rolling over Bellarmine, Indiana State and Wright State, as the Boilermakers have scored more than 90 points in each of those games, something that Purdue hadn't done in three straight games in almost 21 years. "Now we'll get a real test in our next tournament with the teams that we're going to play," Purdue head coach Matt Painter said, pointing to North Carolina first. "They have great individual players. They're like everybody else, trying to find themselves, especially defensively." North Carolina won 94-83 on Tuesday night at College of Charleston in a hostile environment to also open 3-0 and is hoping a good test away from home will help build toward something even better in this tournament setting. "To see them respond on the road in a packed house," North Carolina's first-year head coach Hubert Davis said, "... This builds a lot of confidence for us moving forward. I love it now that we won. Everybody tells us that this is going to make us better." Both teams are 'loaded.' 7-4 sophomore Edey (18.7 & 10.3) teams with 6-10 senior Williams (11.7 & 9.3) and 6-10 freshman Furst (9.3 & 9.3) up front. The perimeter is handled by Ivey (15.3 & 6.7), Stefanovic (13.7) and Newman (12.3). That's quite a six-man rotation. However, North Carolina counters with a frontcourt led by the returning 6-10 Bacot (18.0 & 9.3), 6-9 Oklahoma transfer Manek (17.0 & 7.3) and Marquette transfer Garcia (8.7 & 7.7). Sophomore guard Love (19.0-3.7-4.3) teams with freshman Davis (12.7 & 5.0 APG) and Walton (10.0) in the backcourt. I realize that Matt Painter is in his 17th season at Purdue (the Boilermakers are 3-0 for the 11th time in his tenure) and that Hubert Davis is in his first season as a head coach but I don't see much difference between these two teams. Both teams play again Sunday against either No. 5 Villanova or No. 17 Tennessee in a championship game or consolation game depending on Saturday's results. Is it just me, or does it seem strange for North Carolina to be in an in-season tournament as the lowest-ranked team of the four entrants. In both previous Purdue-North Carolina meetings, the Tar Heels won November games on neutral courts (1998 in New York, 1999 in Honolulu). 'Third verse, same as the first (two).' Points are a HUGE bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-21 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Texas at 12: 00 ET. Texas began the season ranked 21st in the AP's preseason and opened with a 38-18 win over ULL (note: ULL has NOT lost since and at 9-1, is ranked 22nd in the current AP poll). The Longhorns lost 40-21 to Arkansas in their second game but then won three in a row, to enter their HUGE rivalry game with Oklahoma at 4-1 (still No. 21 in the AP poll). However, after taking a 28-7 lead in the first quarter, the Longhorns saw the game (and maybe their season?) crumble. Oklahoma would outscore Texas 25-3 in the 4th quarter for a 55-48 win and Texas hasn't won since. Texas hit 'rock bottom' with its 57-56 (OT) loss at home to Kansas, a team that entered this season 5-84 in Big 12 play the previous decade, as well as with a 2-52 road record in all games. 4-6 Texas now 'limps' into Morgantown to take on the 4-6 West Va Mountaineers. West Va head coach Neal Brown is in his third season with the Mountaineers and entered the current season 11-11. West Va comes into this game 4-6, off back-to-back losses (by the combined score of 58-20) and like Texas, would need to win its last two games to become bowl-eligible. However, it's hard to imagine either of these teams thinking too much about a bowl bid, as just a plain "W" would do. No one can argue Texas doesn't have the offense to be among the top-25 teams, as QB Thompson is completing 64.3% for 1,914 yards with 23 TDs and just 7 INTs. RB Robinson has 1,227 yards rushing on 5.8 YPC and 11 TDs, as Texas is averaging 37.8 PPG (13th). However, the defense is a MESS, allowing 32.5 PPG (107th) on 437.0 YPG (105th). West Va QB Doege is completing 65.5% for 2,448 yards but has a much more modest TD/INT ratio at 13-10. RB Brown gained over 1,000 yards last year in 10 games but through 10 games this season has just 751 (but 11 TDs). West Va's offense (25.7) averages about a TD less per game than Texas does but its defense (24.1) allows about a TD less per game. The visitor in this series had won four in a row and West Va almost made it five in row last year, falling just 17-13 at Austin. In the end, this contest is not about the numbers. Texas (on paper) is the MUCH better team and is getting points. The 'key' will be if the Longhorns can 'Cowboy Up,' as they like to say in Texas. The Longhorns 'booted' head coach Tom Herman (32-18 in four years at Texas, leading the Longhorns to four bowl wins), for Steve Sarkisian. One wonders how Sarkissian could survive by losing SEVEN in a row to end the year (Texas is home to Kansa St in its final game)? How can the Texas defense possibly play worse and if Sarkisian can't 'rally his troops' to a win here, he deserves to be 'voted out of office! Take the FG or so with Texas. Hook 'em Horns! Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-21 | CS-Fullerton +6.5 v. San Diego | Top | 57-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on CS-Fullerton at 10:00 ET.
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11-19-21 | Air Force +2 v. Nevada | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Game of the Year is on Air Force at 9:00 ET. The Air Force Falcons and Nevada Wolf Pack meet Friday night at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nv. Both schools are 7-3, including 4-2 in MWC play. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons will be back 'bowling' in 2021. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell, who arrived in Reno in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Air Force has thrown just 98 passes in its nine games but as will come as no surprise, leads the nation in rushing at 311.1 YPG , averaging 4.9 YPC with 31 TDs. RB Roberts has 1,064 yards (10 TDs) and QB Daniels has 646 yards (9 TDs). Two other players of note are Davis (360 yards on 7.7 YPC) and Hughes (250 yards on 7.8 YPC). Air Force's defense is often overlooked but shouldn't be, as the Falcons are allowing only 17.6 PPG (11th) on 288.3 YPC (5th). While Air Force 'lives' by the run, Nevada 'lives' by the pass. QB Strong completed 70.1% with 27 TDs and 4 INTs last season and comes into this game completing 70.5% for 3,547 yards with 29 TDs and 7 INTs. He's put those kinds of numbers despite a running game that averages only 64.2 YPG (129th) on 2.6 YPC. Three receivers have 50-plus catches, led by WRs Doubs (64 / 7 TDs) and Stovall (51 / 1 TD) plus TE Turner has 55 with 8 TDs. Nevada is averaging 34.9 PPG. The Nevada D is not bad, allowing 24.2 PPG (55th). Nevada is 5-0 at home this season and will take a 9-game home winning streak into this contest but one MUST take into consideration that Air Force is 4-0 on the road, while going 4-0 ATS as well. Breaking down the matchup we find that the Air Force defense allows just 184.1 YPG through the air, ranking 14th in the nation. On the other hand, I believe Air Force will be able to run effectively against Nevada and that also serves the purpose of keeping Strong on the sidelines. Take the 'Flyboys!' Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-21 | Georgia Tech -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Ga Tech at 9:00 ET. The 'Devil is down in Georgia' tonight, as the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets visit the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, Ga. Both schools have opened 2-1 but come off very different seasons last year. Josh Pastner (of Memphis fame) led Ga Tech Yellow Jackets to a 17-9 record and their first ACC tourney championship since 1993. In stark comparison, Tom Crean's three-year run as the Bulldogs' head coach ended with a 14-12 mark (41-49 three-year record). Ga Tech loses ACC player of the year Wright (14 & 8.0) and PG Alvarado (15.2-3.5-4.1) but this season features a guard trio of Devoe (18.0-5.3-5.0), Usher (13.7 & 9.3) and freshman Coleman (11.7) plus 6-10 center Howard (7.0 & 8.3). Georgia's three-guard trio is unique, consisting of the 6-11 Bridges (16.0 7 8.0), PG Cook, a Gonzaga transfer, (14.0 & 8.3 APG) and Oquendo (8.7) plus the 6-7 Ingram (8.0 & 5.0) is the best frontcourt player. Here's the rub. The schools didn't meet last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic but the Bulldogs have won the past FIVE meetings by an average of 13.4 points. Enough is ENOUGH say the Yellow Jackets. Note that the SEC has sent 13 of its 14 schools to the CCAA tourney since the 2016-17 season with the LONE exception being Georgia. The Bulldogs last made the Big Dance in the 2014-15 season. The school's last NCAA tourney win? The year was 1996! Ga Tech IS the better team and five straight losses to Georgia ends here! A couple of interesting facts are that Georgia Tech's bench has outscored its opponents' bench in all three games so far this season and the Yellow Jackets have outrebounded all of their opponents as well (by double digits in each game!). I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive victory. Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-21 | Lakers v. Celtics OVER 213.5 | Top | 108-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* O/U of the Week is on LA/Bos Over at 7:40 ET.
There is talk that the Lakers are about to get their 'King' back, as LBJ (24.8-5.5-7.0) could be set to return from an abdominal injury when the Lakers visit the Celtics on Friday night. The NBA's two most successful franchises renew their storied rivalry on the parquet tonight in Boston with the Lakers coming 8-8 and the Celtics at 7-8. LBJ has missed his team's last eight games (3-5), including a 109-102 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday, but was listed as questionable for Friday's contest. "I hope, I hope," James told ESPN after Wednesday's game when asked if he would play Boston. The Lakers were not able to stop Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, who scored a season-high 47 points for the Bucks. LA's Anthony Davis (23.8 & 10.8), Russell Westbrook (19.4-8.4-8.8) and Carmelo Anthony (15.2 & 4.1) combined to only equal Antetokounmpo's point total. Some VERY good news for LA has been that Talen Horton-Tucker led the Lakers in scoring for a second straight game with 25 points. The 6-4 shooting guard played for the first time this season on Nov 14 and has averaged 23.3 PPG in his three games. The Celtics remain without Brown (hamstring), who has averaged 25.6 & 6.1). Big man Robeet Willimas (10.0 & 9.2) is listed as questionable with a knee issue. Tatum (24.2 & 8.5) needs to pick up the slack with Brown out and has gotten some excellent support from PG Schroder (17.0-3.8-5.1). The return of Horford (13.1 & 8.7) has been a blessing but the Celtcs are still one game under .500 for the season, including 2-3 at home. That said, a game with the hated-Lakers should (will) bring out the best in Boston. "That game is special," Tatum said of Friday's game against Los Angeles. "Everyone knows the history between the two franchises, and I've been fortunate enough to be a part of that going on five years now." Chemistry is the main issue with LA right now, especially with LeBron James having been sidelined for nearly a month now with injury. The Lakers have struggled defensively all season, allowing 112.3 PPG. However, LA has averaged 109.3 points per game, which ranks ninth overall. The Celtics' defense has struggled this season, as they're allowing opposing teams to shoot a whopping 48 percent from the floor in their own building (that's dead last in the league!). I am expecting a faster-paced game tonight and for the total to go over. Good luck...Larry. |
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11-19-21 | Pacers +2 v. Hornets | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Ind Pacers at 7:10 ET.
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11-19-21 | Liberty -3.5 v. Iona | Top | 50-54 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* It's 5 O'Clock Somewhere Play is on Liberty at 5:00 ET. The Liberty Flames and Iona Gaels meet Friday night at the HP Field House (Disney complex in Orlando). Both these schools made NCAA appearances last season but while Liberty has opened 1-1, the Gels are 3-0. Liberty is off a 23-6 season, following a 30-4 one the year before (COVID shut down NCAA tourney). The season before that (2018-19), Ritchie McKay led the Flames into the NCAA tourney and upset No. 5 seed Miss St (ended with a 29-7 record). That's a pretty strong three-year run. PG McGhee (21.5-4.5-4.5) leads the way with fellow guards Peebles (11.0) and McDowell (10. & 3.5) scoring in double digits. Up front, it's the 6-7 Preston (7.0 &4.0), the 6-7 Robinson (4.5 & 5.0) and the 6-7 Rode (3,0-6.5-4.5). COVID limited the Gaels to just 13 regular season games last season (8-5 / 6-3 in the MAAC). However, tourney time was NOT head coach Rick Ptino's 'first rodeo!' Iona beat FOUR opponents (Gaels held those opponents to just 53.8 PPG) on its way to the tourney title and an NCAA bid. Iona fell to two-seed Alabama in the Big Dance, but held them 12 points less than its season average and covered, in a 68-55 loss. Iona lost its two top guards in Ross (18.4) and Gist (13.3). However, Pitino likes his three transfers, Joiner (9.0-5.3-4.3) from Tulsa, Jolly (18.7-3.7-3.0) from SMU and the 6-8 Slazinski (8.3 & 3.0) from Louisville. He loved the potential of 6-9 PF Joseph (11.1 & 7.5 as a freshman) and he has delivered (17.3 & 5.0). 6-8 veteran van Eyck (14.7 & 5.3) has joined Joseph to form an excellent frontcourt duo. Yes, Iona is 3-0 but all games were played on its homeourt and this is a neutral-site one. I respect Pitino but Liberty's McKay has led the Flames to FIVE consecutive 20-win seasons. I'm laying the points and then will order up a Bombay & tonic. You in? Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-21 | Wyoming v. Washington -3 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Late Show Crusher is on Washington at 11:00 ET. The 2-0 Wyoming Cowboys are giving up an average of just 46 points per game heading into their first road contest of the season, a Thursday night contest against 2-1 Washington in Seattle.at Hec Edmundson Pavilion. |
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11-18-21 | Raptors +9.5 v. Jazz | Top | 103-119 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Sitautional Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at ET. The Toronto Raptors began the season with Pascal Siakam on the sidelines but the All Star returned on Nov 7 and has looked good, averaging 17.0-7.3-4.3 but after winning FIVE straight from Oct 27 thru Nov 3, the team has lost FIVE of six, including all four games in which Siakam has played. The jazz opened 7-1 but have dropped four of their last six, although they are hoping they got their 'groove back' during a commanding 120-85 win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday. As for Toronto, the Raptors are hoping a couple of days off will help them resume the level of play they had while winning those five straight games a couple of weeks ago. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 48 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET. QB Matt Ryan no longer has much of a receiving corps plus a running game that's worse than New England's (67.7 YPG ranks 29th) but per usual, he's on pace for another 4,000 yard season (he's topped 4,000 yards the last 10 seasons). A bright spot for Atlanta's passing game is Florida rookie TE Pitts, who leads the team with 40 catches. There are NO bright spots on a defense allowing 29.2 PPG (31st). |
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11-18-21 | UAB v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Late Breaker is on South Carolina at 7:00 ET. UAB is coming off a 22-7 season last year and has opened 3-0 but will play on the road for the first time Thursday night in Columbia, SC against the 2-1 South Carolina Gamecocks. UAB (has taken care of all of its business early, scoring 95 points per game and limiting the opposition to 69.7 in three impressive home victories. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are looking to shake off a disappointing early season tournament in neighboring North Carolina, where they split their two games in the Asheville Championship, losing Friday to Princeton 66-62 before claiming a 75-64 victory over Western Kentucky in Sunday's contest. |
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11-18-21 | Ohio State -2.5 v. Xavier | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Ohio St at 6:30 ET.
A pair of unbeaten teams get together tonight as 3-0 Ohio St (ranked No. 21 in the latest AP poll) and 2-0 Xavier meet from Cintas Center in Cincinnati (Xavier's homecourt). Ohio St head coach Chris Holtmann has won 25, 20, 21 and 21 games in his first four season in Columbus and it's hard to believe that a fifth straight 20-win season isn't in the cards this season. The team's top player is the 6-7 Liddell (22.3 & 6.3) and he's joined up front by the 6-8 Key (12.3 & 7.0 / up from 5.2 & 3.4 LY) and the 6-6 Ahrens (8.0). The starting backcourt is freshman Branham (7.3) and PG Wheeler (5.7 & 4.0 APG), who is a transfer from Penn St. Xavier head coach Travis Steele is badly in need of a 20-win season. He took over from Chris Mack (23.9 wins per season with NINE straight Big Dance bands), who took over from Sean Miller )24 wins per season and NCAA bids in his last four seasons of his five-year stint). The Musketeers have won just 51 games (17 per) in Steele's first three seasons, without an NCAA bid. Leading scorer Scruggs (20.0-6.0-4.5) is only back because COVID gave him an extra year of eligibility and Steele would be in deep trouble without him. Fellow guard Jones has been a HUGE surprise, averaging 17.5 & 6.5, after chipping in a modest 7.7 & 4.8 last year. The team's top frontcourt players are the 7-0 Nunge (9.0 & 5.0) and the 6-8 Hunter (6.5 & 9.0). Xavier still has a ways to show "what it will be made of" this season, while I believe Ohio St has already shown it will be a top-25 team this season. Ohio State beat Bowling Green 89-58 on Monday, as FIVE players scored in double figures, Xavier is off a 73-59 win over Kent State on Friday, a game in which the Musketeers shot 40.3 percent from the floor, while turning the ball over 16 times.That type of sloppy play and poor shooting isn't going to cut it against an opponent like Ohio State. Lay the small points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-21 | Bulls v. Blazers -2 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 10:00 ET. The Bulls have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free-agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent. Chicago visits Portland tonight at 10-4, just a half-game back of the 10-3 Wizards for the East's best record. Portland is led by the dynamic guard duo of Lillard and McCollum plus owns a deep roster but is just 7-8 through 15 games.
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11-17-21 | Missouri State -4 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 77-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Missouri st at 8:30 ET. The Missouri State Bears are in Huntsville, Texas to face the Sam Houston State Bearkats. Dana Ford is in his fourth season at Springfield and is coming off a 17-7 season with his Bears opening 1-1. James Hooton enters his 11th season with the Bearkats and is coming off an 18-13 season. However, his teams had won 20-plus games in FIVE of the previous six seasons. The Bears return all FIVE starters from last year, most notably the duo of big guard Mosley (19.8 LY) and the 6-9 Prim (16,7 & 9.1 LY). The two are in fine form after two games, Mosely is averaging 23.5 & 3.5, while Prim is averaging 19.5 & 14.5 RPG. Seven players are averaging 22-plus minutes. Hooton lost two key players from last season, Southland POY Nutall (19.3 & 5.7) and Southland Freshman of the Year Monroe (10.1). Nutall transferred to SMU and Monroe to San Diego. Guard Flagg is off to a great start (25.5 & 9.0) but fellow guard Lampley (13.5) is the only other player in double digits. |
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11-17-21 | Drexel +2 v. St. Joe's | Top | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Drexel at 7:00 ET. |
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11-17-21 | Michigan State v. Butler +3.5 | Top | 73-52 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
My 9* Tourney Takedown is on Butler at 7:00 ET. Michigan State and Butler meet tonight in the Gavitt Tip-off at Indianapolis. Michigan State threw itself into the fire right off the bat, witha season-opening game against No. 3 Kansas in the Champions Classic at MSG, suffering an 87-74 loss. The Spartans bounced back with an easy 90-46 home win over Western Michigan to enter against Butler with a more positive frame of mind. The Bulldogs, coming off an 'ugly' 10-15 season, have opened with three successive home wins, beating IUPUI 56-47, Central Arkansas 85-53 and Troy 70-59. Tom Izzo's starting five features a solid trio of big men in the 6-8 Brown (13.5 & 4.5), the 7-0 Bigham (11.0 & 7.5) and the 6-9 Hauser (10.0 & 9.5. The starting guards are freshman Christie (7.5 & 4.5) plus Northeastern transfer Walker (5.45-.Freshman guard Hoggard is averaging 12.0 & 5.5 APG off the bench, while the 6-9 Marble chips in 9.0 & 6.5 coming off the bench as well. Butler has a deep guard trio in Harris (15.7-4.7-3.3), Bolden (14.2) and freshman Taylor (13.3) plus the 6-7 Nze (8.3 & 7.3) is back again (he may NEVER leave the program!). This will be Michigan State's first true road game and it comes at legendary Hinkle Fieldhouse. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS their last four on the road, while the Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference home games as underdogs in the +1.5 to +3.5 points range. Not surewht MSU is favored but I;ll take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-21 | Nevada -3 v. Santa Clara | Top | 74-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Nevada at 9:00 ET. A pair of well-known CBB head coaches square off tonight when the Nevada Wolf Pack and Santa Clara Broncos meet Tuesday at the Leavey Center in Santa Clara. Nevada's Steve Alford has a resume which includes stops at Missouri St, Iowa, New Mexico, UCLA and now is at Nevada. Herb Sendkek has stops at Miami-O, North Carolina St, Arizona St and now Santa Clara. Nevada has opened 1-1 and Santa Clara 2-0. This is Alford's third season at Nevada, having gone 19-12 and 15-9 in his first two seasons. However, with all five starters returning plus adding the highly-regarded 6-7 Bramah as a transfer from Roberts Morris, a big season was anticipated. Barhmah debuted with 17 points and nine rebounds in a win over Eastern Washington but a concussion forced him to miss the team's loss to San Diego (questionable here). Then there was Desmond Cambridge, one of Nevada's two outstanding returning guards, who scored just five points on 2-of-12 shooting, after scoring 22 points in the opener. Sherfeld (18.6 & 6.1) is the other half of that guard duo and he's averaged 15.0 & 6.5. The 7-0 Washington (16.5 & 9.0) had 18 points and 10 rebounds in the loss plus is now joined in the frontcourt by 7-0 Texas transfer Baker, who is averaging 12.5 PPG. Sendek's first five seasons at Santa Clara have not been anything special, as he entered this season 76-72 without a postseason bid of any kind. Santa Clara has opened 2-0 and is coming off an 88-72 win over Stanford on Friday night. PJ Pipes, a Green Bay transfer) finished with 24 points against Stanford and is averaging 17.0 & 5.0 APG. the 6-6 17.5 & 4.5 APG. The 6-9 Josip Vrankic is the team's leading scorer at 22.5 PPG (6.0 RPG) plus the 6-7 Justice adds 14.0 & 8.0. Both teams could be headed for strong seasons but I favor Nevada coming off its loss over Santa Clara coming off an impressive win over the Pac-12's Stanford. The difference in the early going is that Nevada has uncharacteristically struggled from the floor (last game shot 43 percent from the floor, including 27 percent from three-point range), while Santa Clara has uncharacteristically dominated from the floor, shooting 58.1%, which is third-best in the nation. Here's some trends backing the play. The Wolf Pack are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS win. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-21 | Creighton v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 77-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 Nebraska at 7:00 ET. It's 2-0 Creighton at in-state rival Nebraska (1-1) from Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln in this 'Battle for Nebraska.' Creighton owns a rich basketball tradition but the last two seasons have been pretty special for Doug McDermott's team. The Bluejays won their first-ever Big East title in the 2019-20 season, only to see COVID shutdown the postseason. Then, Creighton spent all season in the top-25 and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1974 (finished 22-9). As for Nebraska, Fred Hoiberg was lured to Nebraska after leading Iowa St to four straight "Big Dance" appearances and a 'nightmare' coaching experience in the NBA. However, the first two years of the 'Hoiberg era' have ended with records of 7-25 and 7-20. Creighton lost all FIVE starters from last year's team and are rebuilding this season. Starting guards are O'Connell (3.4 PPG last year) and freshman Nembhard. O'Connell leads the team with 16.5 PPG, while adding 7.5 RPG, while the 6-7 Hawkins is a Div II transfer and chipping in 11.0 & 10.5. 7-1 center Kalkbrenner returns and is averaging 8.0 & 5.5 RPG plus 6-7 freshman Kaluma adds 9.0 & 6.5. Hoiberg has brought in a special freshman in the 6-7 Bryce McGowens, who is averaging 27.7 & 5.5 His brother Trey is a junior guard, who has added 8.5 & 6.0. A HUGE addition is ASU transfer Verge, averaging 19.5-7.0-6.0, while big men like 7-0 freshman Andre (11.0 & 7.0) and the 6-8 Walker (5.5 & 8.0) are off to good starts. Creighton has dominated this series (for bettors anyways), going 12-2 ATS the last 14 meetings. However, Creighton's scoring is down (70.5 PPG) and in fact, its 51-44 win over Kennesaw State last Thursday, was Creighton's fewest points in a win since the team beat Missouri State 50-49 in 2008. Nebraska has the best player on the floor in Bryce McGowens (Verge is the second-best) and it's time for the 'Huskers to win this 'Battle 4 Nebraska.' Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-21 | Winthrop -3.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Winthrop Eagles and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders meet tonight from the Murphy Athletic Center in Murfreesboro, Tn. Both have opened 2-0, after Winthrop escaped with an 88-85 overtime win over Mercer in their last game and MTSU won 71-51 win over Bethune-Cookman in its last matchup. Belmont is off a 26-4 season with all five starters back, while MTSU has fallen on hard times after a 31-and 25-win season a few years back. The Blue Raiders went 5-18 last season, coming off 8-win and 11-win seasons prior to that. The 6-9 D.J. Burns leads the Eagles in scoring (23.0) and rebounding (7.0) and is joined up front by the 6-7 Hightower (15.0 & 5.0). Jones (12.0) and Good (11.5) average double digits in the backcourt plus McMahon (7.5) and Corbin (7.0); Guard Josh Jefferson is averaging a team-high 13.5 PPG for MTSU, while the 6-9 Isaiah Turner has chipped in 11.5 PPG. Guard Eli Lawrence (10.0 PPG) makes it a trio of double-digit scorers for the Blue Raiders through their first two games of the year. The 6-7 Teafale Lenard has a team-high 6.5 RPG and adds 7.0 PPG. I don't see this as being a "close call," although the oddsmakers do, considering the pointspread. Winthrop owns the 'pedigree' plus I don't think the Blue Raiders can match Winthrop's up-tempo pace (Eagles are averaging 99.0 PPG). Winthrop is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 against teams with winning records and I expect the Eagles to pull away for the comfortable cover once it's all said and done. Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-21 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Washington State -7.5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Washington St at 11:00 ET. The Washington State Cougars have opened 2-0 with non-conference victories over Alcorn State and Seattle but gets its toughest test of the early going on Monday when it hosts UC-Santa Barbara in Pullman, Wash. The UCSB Gauchos were the regular-season and Big West Tournament champions last season and have FOUR consecutive seasons of at least 21 wins to their credit. UCSB has only played once, and it was against Division II San Francisco State. That said, it WAS a convincing 119-65 blowout that tied for the fourth-most points scored in program history. Head coach Joe Pasternack enters his fifth season in Santa Barbara and as noted above, he's run an excellent program. The Gauchos did lose Big West p-o-y McLaughlin (16.0-3.5-5,2) but the cupboard is far from bare. Two seniors, the 6-9 Sow (25 points and seven rebounds) and the 6-10 Norris (14 & 8) both played well in the opener, as did Pierre-Louis (a Temple transfer), who is expected to take over McLaughlin's role. Yes, it was just against San Francisco St but Pasternack has to be pleased with his 25 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Squaring off against Pasternack is Wash St head coach Kyle Smith. In his final season at Columbia, his team won the CIT championship and finished 25-10. That led to a three-year stint at San Francisco, where his teams went 63-40. However, his first two teams at Washington St have been disappointing (16-16 and 14-13). This could be (should be?) a breakout season for Smith's Cougars. They lost leading scorer Bonton (17.7 & 4.0) to the transfer portal but FOUR starters return. It's a perimeter-dominated lineup, as the team's top-five scorers are guards. Roberts (16.5) and Williams (10.5) lead the way, while guard Flowers adds 8.5 PPG and 5.5 RPG. Two 6-10 players are the top frontcourt contributors, Jackson (7.5 & 6.0) and Abugidi (5.5 & 4.5). I have a ton of respect for the Gauchos but I agree with the high expectations for this year's Cougars. Note that Friday's win over Seattle was Washington St's 15th consecutive non-conference victory, with 14 of those at home! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-21 | San Diego v. California -3.5 | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Cal at 9:00 ET. Cal head coach Mark Fox is NOT a 'happy camper!' Matt Bradley took his 18 points and 4.6 rebounds per game with him when he transferred to San Diego St after last season. The Bears then followed up an embarrassing 80-67 home loss to UC San Diego with a 55-52 defeat at UNLV on Saturday night, a game in which Cal pulled to within one with two minutes remaining before not scoring again. Cal looks for the team's first win tonight when it welcomes 2-0 San Diego to Berkeley. In stark contrast to Cal, the Toreros have jumped out of the gate with a pair of wins Including 75-68 at Nevada on Friday night), coming off a 3-11 season last year. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET. Pick your poison. The Los Angeles Rams are 4-0 on the road this season, while the San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 at home. However, San Francisco has beaten the Rams FOUR consecutive times (more on these trends at the end). The 3-5 49ers are in desperate need of a win when they welcome the 7-2 the Rams to Levi's Stadium on Monday night at Santa Clara, Ca. As for the Rams, they are battling the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC West lead and got some huge help Sunday when the Murray-less Cards were routed 34-10 by the Panthers, dropping them to 8-2. The Rams are coming off a 28-16 home loss to the Tennessee Titans and one of LA's two TDs came with 24 seconds left to make the outcome look closer than it was. QB Matthew Stafford had his worst game of the season (one TD / 2 INTs and a QB rating of 71.0) and accepted blame for the setback. Head coach Sean McVay is looking for a bounce-back performance. "We have to play cleaner football," McVay said. "I want to see what we learn from our response. The last time we had a setback, I liked how we responded." Expect Stafford to bounce back. In his previous three games, he had thrown for 10 TDs and just one INT, posting QB ratings of 128.7, 117.3 and 127.3! He's completing 68.2% on the season for 2,771 yards with 23 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 111.0 / his career mark is 91.0). LA's running game doesn't get help much but even though vet WR Woods (45 / 12.4 / 4 TDs) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in practice this week, Stafford still has plenty of 'weapons.' Fellow WR Kupp leads the NFL with 74 catches and has 10 TDs (he's caught five-plus passes in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL). WR Jeferson (27 / 16.0 / 3 TDs) is MORE than capable of stepping up and who knows, maybe OBJ will like the 'lights' of Hollywood. TE Higbee (35 catches / 2 TDs) is a 'keeper. The LA defense hasn't quite dominated but it's still one of the most-feared in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo (65.3% / 1,754 yards / 8 TDs and 5 INTs) was considered the team's 'savior' when he led the 49ers to the Super bowl at the end of the 2019 season but he seems to be regularly on the 'hot seat' these days. That said, he has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, with QB ratings of over 100.0 in both. Like the Rams, the 49ers don't have much of a running game and last week ran for just 39 yards, the lowest total in the Kyle Shanahan era. WR Samuel has 49 catches (18.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and when healthy, TE Kittle (25 catches / 13.1 YPC / 1 TD) is among the very best in the league. He did return last week (six catches for 101 yards with his first tD catch of the year) but let's wait and see. Yes, the 49ers have won FOUR straight against the Rams but how can one ignore that since the start of the 2020 season, San Francisco is just 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in home games? Yes, the lone "W" came against the Rams last October but the Rams are the MUCH better team and are coming off a humiliating home loss. A bounce back seems highly likely and now, with Arizona's loss, the Rams have a chance to join the Cards atop the NFC West. Stafford has found a 'home' with the Rams and enters as the only QB to throw for 250-plus yards in all nine games. Taking him over Jimmy G is a 'no-brainer' plus the Rams own the better defense. Lay the small points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-21 | Nuggets v. Mavs -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:10 ET. The 9-4 Denver Nuggets just completed a 5-0 homestand with a 124-95 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday but are right back on the court tonight in Dallas to face the 8-4 Mavs, who have won FOUR of their last five games. These teams met back in Denver on Oct 29, with the Nuggets routing the Mavs 106-75. It's no surprise that Nikola Jokic (last year's MVP) is averaging 25.5-13.7-6.3 but Denver's bench is not quite as 'deep' this season. First off. no one knows for sure when Murary can play plus SF Porter, who averaged last eason, is averaging just 9.9 & 6.8 TY. What's more, Porter (back) remains out for the "foreseeable future," according to recent reports. Morris (10.9 & 3.9 APG) is starting for Murray but he's NO Murray Dallas is led by the "do-everything" Luka Doncic, who is averaging 25.1-8.3-7.7 and the 7-3 Porzingis finally looks to be coming around. He's averaged 17.9 & 7.4 in his seven games but the duo look to build on their best outing of the young season when the Mavericks face the visiting Nuggets in this one. Dallas bounced back from a 10-point loss to the Chicago Bulls with an impressive 123-109 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Friday, as Porzingis scored a season-high 32 points in the victory while Doncic recorded his 37th career triple-double with 32 points, 12 rebounds and a season-high 15 assists. Swingman Hardaway (14.2) is now a starter and guard Brunson is averaging 14.9-4.6-4.6 off the bench. Denver is unrested, while Dallas hasn't played since Friday. The Mavs are 6-1 against Western Conference teams this season and have gone 5-1 at home. Throw in a HUGE revenge motive from that October beatdown in Denver (see above) and I'm "all over" the Mavericks. Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-21 | Pacers v. Knicks -3 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Knicks at 7:40 ET. The Indiana Pacers were a postseason participant for NINE of the previous 10 years, prior to sitting out last year's playoffs with a 34-38 record.The Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31 but lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. The two teams meet tonight in MSG. The 6-8 Pacers have a worse record through 14 games this season than last, when they were one of the biggest disappointments in the league. As for the 7-6 Knicks, they have a better record through 13 games this season than last season, when they were one of the biggest surprises in the NBA. The Pacers earned their second straight win Saturday by racing to a 20-point lead before edging the visiting Philadelphia 76ers 118-113, while the Knicks have been off since Friday, when they squandered a 16-point lead and fell to the host Charlotte Hornets 104-96 |
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11-14-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -1.5 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Hawks at 6:10 ET.
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11-14-21 | Vikings v. Chargers UNDER 53.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Featured Sunday NFL O/U is on Min/LAC Under at 4:05 ET. The 3-5 Minnesota Vikings come into Sunday's game with the 5-3 LA Chargers, enduring a season's worth of frustarting losses. Their five losses have been by a total of just 18 points, including two OT losses. The Chargers know the feeling, as they had a similar start last season. Their first five losses were by a combined 19 points and also had two ending in overtime. The bottom line is, as the teams take the field Sunday at So-Fi Stadium, Minnesota's season is 'on the brink,' while the Chargers are tied with the Raiders atop the AFC West, with KC and Denver lurking just one game back at 5-4. |
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11-14-21 | Spurs +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is the SA Spurs at 3:40 ET. The Los Angeles Lakers are REALLY struggling and have to be 'scratching their heads' after suffering a 107-83 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in which LA scored just 34 points in the second half. LBJ missed the game with an abdominal strain, dropping the Lakers to 3-4 this season when James (24.8-5.5-7.0) has not played (Lakers are 7-6, overall). LA looks to bounce back against longtime rival San Antonio, which comes to Staples Center just 4-8 on the season, after a poor showing in a 123-109 home loss to Dallas on Friday. The 'ugly' loss to Dallas, came right after playing so well in a 136-117 win over Sacramento on Wednesday. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said it's not the first time this season that his team has not followed up a big win with another consistent performance. "It's really the first or second time they've been disappointing in that regard where we didn't play the usual move-the-basketball type play," Popovich explained. "I think we created one turnover in the first half, so the mental toughness is something that has to be understood and acted upon. We need that. To me, it's a mental toughness exercise where you just have to realize that everybody has to bring it every single night," he added. "You can't get satisfied because you won a game, and the next game is going to be the same way. You have to bring it. Our physicality was lacking (against Dallas)." The spurs are playing center Poeltl (13.9 & 9.7) who is currently enrolled in the league's health and safety protocols, However, 'Pop' has options. Devin Vassell (12.3 & 4.0) led the Spurs with 20 points in the loss to Dallas, with Keldon Johnson (15.4 & 6.6) and Dejounte Murray (18.1-7.7-7.8) scoring 15 each, Doug McDermott (11.0) doing for 14 points, Drew Eubanks (7.0 & 5.0) scoring 12 and Lonnie Walker IV (11.8) chipping in 10 for San Antonio. Anthony Davis (23.8 & 11.0) led the Lakers with 22 points and eight rebounds, with Russell Westbrook (19.4-8.8-8.5) adding 20 points and Dwight Howard (4.7 & 5.2) pulling down 10 rebounds off the bench. Los Angeles was outscored 40-12 in the third period, when it saw a five-point halftime lead turn into a 24-point deficit. It was the Lakers' lowest-scoring quarter of the season. "We just had no effort in the third quarter," Davis said. "We're not going to win a championship the way we're playing -- that's not us right now. We have to be better, and we've got to decide who we want to be." Minnesota had dropped SIX straight games before surprising the Lakers. Neither of these teams look like their respective championship teams of yore but as long as 'Pop' is coaching the Spurs, it's a RIVALRY! Los Angeles beat the Spurs 125-121 in overtime in San Antonio on Oct 26 in one of the three games the Lakers have won this season without LBJ. The Spurs WILL remember that and while a bounce-back by LA off its humiliating loss to Minnesota makes sense, there is NOTHING that makes sense about this LA team so far. How is 'multiple NBA champion Russell Westbrook' faring guys? I'm taking the points, as 'Pop' steals one! Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-21 | South Dakota State -2 v. Stephen F Austin | Top | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on South Dakota St at 3:00 ET. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits and the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks meet Sunday in college basketball action from William R. Johnson Coliseum in Nacogdoches, Tx. Both of these programs have been big winners for some time now and the Jackrabbits return all FIVE starters from last season, while the Lumberjacks return FOUR of five. South Dakota State has a 1-1 record so far, beating Bradley 81-65 at home but losing 104-88 at No. 14 Alabama As for Stephen F. Austin, they’ve won both their games this year versus LSU-Alexandria and Mary Hardin-Baylor All five starters are averaging in double digits for the Jackrabbits, who start four guards and the 6-7 Wilson 16.0 & 5.5). Freidel (19.5) leads the team in scoring, while fellow guards Arians (11.5), Mayo (10.0) and Scheierman (10.0) round out the group. I almost forgot to mention that the 6-6 Scheierman is averaging a whopping 16.0 RPG! Cameron Johnson (15.3 & 4.5) will be missed by SF Austin, which owns a winning percentage of .840 over the last four seasons, 4th-best in the nation. Forwards Kensmil (16.0 & 9.5), Soloman (10.0 & 7.5) and Hall (7.0 & 5.0) are an excellent trio, as are guards Ware (13.0-4.-3.0), Jackson-Posey (10.0) and Kachelries (7.7-3.5-3.5) in the backcourt. I won't dismiss SF Austin's pedigree but the Lumberjacks haven't been tested (see above). SF Austin RARELY loses at home but oddsmakers are not so convinced, considering this pointspread. Meanwhile, the Jackrabbits were within three at the break (41-38) but ran out of gas in the second half during a 104-88 loss at a VERY good Alabama team. South Dakota St takes a 10-4-1 ATS record in its last 15 on the road into this contest and picks up a "W" and cover, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. |
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11-14-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Ws FB team at 1:00 ET. |
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11-14-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cle Browns at 1:00 ET. The Cleveland Browns are FINALLY rid of former All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and that HAS to be good news. Baker Mayfield and the 5-4 Browns are in Foxborough, Ma to take on Mac Jones and the 5-4 New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Mayfield threw for 218 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14-of-21 passing, and Nick Chubb rushed for 137 yards and two scores to help the Browns rout the rival Cincinnati Bengals 41-16 last Sunday, in what was Cleveland's best overall game this season. The Patriots coasted to a 24-6 win at the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, giving them their first three-game winning streak since the 2019 season and after a 1-3 start, New England has won four of five to also come in at 5-4. Cleveland had dropped three of its previous four games before Sunday's rout of Cincinnati. Without Beckham, the Browns had a balanced offensive attack with Mayfield completing passes to eight different receivers. Mayfield is not having a great season (66.7% for 1,917 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs), as the Cleveland offense counts on the NFL's best rushing offense (160.2 YPG, 5.3 YPC and 16 rushing TDs all rank No. 1 among all NFL teams). However, Nick Chubb (3rd in the NFL with 721 rushing yards) was placed on the team's reserve/COVID-19 list early in the week and ruled out on Friday. D'Ernest Johnson is the team's lone healthy RB but the good news is that Johnson ran for a career-best 146 yards and a TD in his first start against Denver back on Oct 21. "We are extremely confident in D'Ernest. That has not been a question yet," Mayfield said. The Cleveland defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (309.7 YPG) and is arguably coming off its best effort. Cincy's Joe Burrow came into last Sunday's game as the only QB with multiple TD passes in every game but was held without a TD pass and was intercepted twice. His QB rating on the season is 102.6 but against Cleveland it was 69.0! Alabama rookie Mac Jones has completed 68.0% for 2,135 and completed at least 70% of his passes in FIVE of his first nine games, the only rookie QB to do so. However, he has a modest 10-7 TD/INT ratio and in the win over Carolina, he threw for just 139 yards on 12-of-18 passing with a touchdown and an interception. Over the last two weeks, Jones has completed just 57 percent of his passes while averaging 178 yards passing. The No. 15 overall pick in this year's draft completed better than 70 percent of his pass attempts while averaging 254.1 yards over his first seven starts. More bad news is that the Patriots' leading rusher (only rusher?) Damien Harris began the week in the concussion protocol. Harris has run for 547 yards and 7 TDs for a team that averages just 106.8 YPG on the ground (19th) and has been ruled OUT for Sunday's game. Belichick-coached teams always play good defense and the 2021 Pats are allowing just 18.9 PPG (4th) on 340.3 YPG (9th). I can't help but think that the Pats are a little overrated and that Browns just may be a little underappreciated. Breaking the game down finds this is a tough Browns defense that's good at stopping the run (84.8 YPG ranks 3rd) and New England can't be expected to run well without Harris. That's going to put even more pressure on Jones, who is off back-to-back mediocre efforts (he can call Joe Burrow and ask about the Cleveland D!). The Browns rank first in the league in YPC, in average time per drive and rank in the top-three in plays per drive. Kevin Stefanski needs to out-coach Bill Belichick today, which is never an easy thing to do, but the talent on this Cleveland defense will prove to be the difference in the end in my opinion. Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-21 | Florida State v. Florida | Top | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* Daydream Believer is on Florida at 1:00 ET. Florida State (No. 20 preseason poll) and Florida will renew their in-state rivalry when the Seminoles travel to face the host Gators in Gainesville on Sunday afternoon. However, in recent years, it's been a one-sided feud, as the Seminoles have defeated the Gators SEVEN seven times (won 83-71 in Tallahassee last season).
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11-13-21 | Utah State v. San Jose State -4.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Late Show' play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET. The Utah State Aggies were blown out in their first three games last season and head coach Gary Anderson was let go. The Aggies played just six games in 2020, ending 1-5. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas St and he brought QB Logan Bonner with him. The result? Utah St is 7-2 overall, including 4-1 in the MWC's Mountain Division. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. However, the Spartans are just 5-5, including 3-3 in the West Division. The two schools meet Saturday night in San Jose. Bonner has been very good, completing 61.3% for 2,486 yards with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. Bonner has an excellent group of receivers, led by Thompkins (72 catches / 18.3 YPC / 8 TDs). He's joined by a trio that combines for 87 catches and 14 TDs. RBs Tyler (516 yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and Noa (431 yards / 4.2 YPC / 3 TDs) give the Aggies some nice balance on offense, as the Aggies are averaging 31.8 PPG (43rd) on 474.9 YPG (12th). The defense is an issue, as Utah St allows 27.2 PPG (79th) on 425.3 YPG (101st). QB Nick Starkel is off a very good season (64.2% with 17 TDs and 7 INTs) but he's been inconsistent and has been replaced by Nick Nash at times. Starkel is completing a poor 50.8% for 1,207 yards with 9 TDs and 6 INTs, while Nick Nash has thrown for 971 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs plus run 359 yards. RB Tyler Nevens leads the Spartans with 699 rushing yards (4.8 YPC / 6 TDs). TE Deese leads with 42 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs). San Jose St is averaging just 21.4 PPG (down from 28.6 PPG) but its defense is holding opponents to 23.0 PPG (50th) on 355.9 YPG (46th). Recent series history all favors Utah St (San Jose St had won 11 of 12 but Utah St has won the last EIGHT meetings) but oddsmakers have made the 5-5 Spartans more than a three-point favorite over the 7-2 Aggies. Wonder why? Utah St is a money-burning 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, San Jose St enters on a 4-game ATS winning streak and chalk this up as a game many will call an upset (a 5-5 team beating a 7-2 team), unaware that the Spartans are the favorite in the game. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Texas v. Gonzaga -7.5 | Top | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Gonzaga at 10:30 ET. No. 5 Texas will be in Spokane, Wa tonight to take on No. 1 Gonzaga at the McCarthey Athletic Center. The Texas Longhorns 'warmed up' with a 92-48 win over Houston Baptist in their opener, while the Gonzaga Bulldogs rolled over Dixie State in their first game. After six years with ZERO NCAA tourney wins, 'Shaka Ball' was "sent packing," as Texas brought in the highly-respected Chris Beard. He 'exploded' on the national scene by going 30-5 with Arkansas-LR in the 2015-16 season and used that ONE season to get the job at Texas Tech, where he's had an excellent five-year run (lost championship to UVA in 2019, finishing with 31 wins0. While Beard is a terrific coach, he has NOTHING on Mark Few of Gonzaga. He has led Gonzaga to 21 straight NCAA berths in his 22 years (2020 tourney was cancelled). He's done everything but win a national championship but he's led the Bulldogs into the title TWICE in the last four seasons. Last year's loss was a 'killer,' as Gonzaga was No. 1 wire-to-wire and at 31-0, was looking to match Bob Knight's 1975-76 team, which was the last team to go unbeaten (32-0) and win the title. Chris Beard brought in seven transfers with NCAA Division I experience. SIX players reached double-digits against Houston-Baptist. Returning guards Ramey (14) and Jones (11) led the way, with freshman guard Tyson also adding 11 points. The 6-10 Mitchell (18.8 & 7.2 plus 17.7 & 7.2 the L2 years at UMass) had 10 & 5, while Minnesota transfer Marcus Carr (19.6-3.9-49 LY) chipped in 10-3-7. The 6-6 Timmy Allen was named All-Pac 12 at Utah last season (17.2 & 6.4) and will be a MAJOR factor, although he ahd just 8 & 6 in the team's opener. Gone from Gonzaga's near-perfect team last year are the 6-7 Kispert (18.6 & 5.0), PG Suggs (14.4-5.3-4.5) and guard Ayayi (12.0 & 6.9). The 6-10 Timme (19.0 & 7.0) and guard Nembard (9.2) return, joined by a recruiting haul that netted Gonzaga THREE of nation's top 25 high school recruits in ESPN's rankings, including 7-footer Chet Holmgren, the top overall prospect who has been called a "unicorn." Holmgren had 14 points, 13 rebounds, six assists and tied a school record with seven blocked shots in his debut. 6-7 freshman Julian Strawther scored a team-high 17 points and added 10 rebounds, in making his first collegiate start. Transfer Rasir Bolton (Iowa State/Penn State) added 15 points and Drew Timme, the reigning Karl Malone Award winner as the nation's top power forward, scored 11 in limited minutes. I have little doubt that Beard will greatly improve on the Longhorns' recent past but Gonzaga is a 'monster!' Gonzaga's rout of Dixie State marked the team's 52nd consecutive home win, a program record. The team's last home loss was Jan 18, 2018, to Saint Mary's. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Arkansas -2.5 v. LSU | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 75 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Arkansas at 7:30 ET. Sam Pittman did an excellent job as Georgia's OL coach and got his first head coaching gig at Arkansas in 2020. Not much went right, as the Razorbacks finished 3-7. More than a few publications had Arkansa pegged as the 7th team in the SEC's 7-team SEC West but Arkansas opened 4-0 SU and ATS, with wins over then-No. 15 Texas (40-21) and then-No. 7 Texas A&M (20-10). However, the Razorbacks are just 2-3 (1-4 ATS) over their last five games. At 6-3 (25th in the latest CFP rankings), Arkansa travels to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers, who check in at 4-5 (2-4 in the SEC). Arkansas is off a hard-fought 31-28 victory against Mississippi State, while LSU scared the 'you know what' out of Alabama in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, falling just 20-14 as a 4-TD underdog (FYI...LSU was my free play!). Arkansas QB Jefferson has had an excellent season, completing 64.2% for 1,848 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 INTs. He is also one of FOUR Arkansas players with more than 400 yards rushing, as the team's running game ranks 4th in the nation averaging 244.3 YPG on 5.3 YPC. Burks (48 catches / 16.6 YPC / 8 TDs) is the lone receiver of note but the Arkansas offense is good enough to average 32.6 PPG (35th) on 457.8 YPG (21st). Defensively, Arkansas is credible, allowing 24.0 PPG (57th) on 351.2 YPG (41st). LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FOUR of five since, with their lone win coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED!' The Gators opened 3-1 (lone blemish was a two-point loss to Alabama) but has now lost FOUR of five (only win over 2-7 Vandy, which is 0-5 in the SEC). Max Johnson has done a credible job at QB, completing 60.1% for 2,169 yards with 22 TDs and 6 INTs. A HUGE issue is a running game that is averaging only 112.0 YPG (116th) on 3.4 YPC. It's actually worse than that, as LSU ran for 321 yards vs Florida. Take that one game away and LSU is averaging 85.6 YPG. The LSU defense is allowing 27.8 PPG (79th). LSU and head coach Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. The Tigers need two wins in their last three games to become bowl eligible and extend Orgeron's tenure by one game. Coming off the team's 'leave it all on the field' effort at Alabama, I find it hard to believe that LSU doesn't suffer a letdown in this one. Orgeron said Max Johnson remains the team's starting QB but against Arkansas he'll give freshman Garrett Nussmeier "significant snaps at the beginning of the game, and we'll see how it goes." How is that a good thing? The Tigers allowed just SIX yards rushing to the Tide last week (how is that possible?), after allowing 330 to Kentucky and 265 to Ole Miss. Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is taking it one game at a time: "I believe LSU played as physical and as hard as they had all year," Pittman assessed earlier in the week. "Coach Orgeron certainly has the attention of the team still and they're very, very talented. From what I saw on film, compared to the other weeks, I thought they played extremely well and physically on Saturday against Alabama."Arkansas plays with the added incentive of revenge here after falling 27-24 in the last meeting on November 21st of last year. Yes, Alabama is up next but how could Arkansa be looking ahead? The LAST thing this team needs is a loss heading into that contest. Arkansas is the better team and I expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Good Luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Arizona State v. Washington +6 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Washington at 7:00 ET. Washington was ranked 20th in the AP's preseason poll and fellow Pac-12 member Arizona St checked in at No. 25. However, as these two conference rivals at Seattle on the second Saturday of November, both teams have been disappointments. Arizona St has had the better season, as its 31-16 victory against visiting USC last Saturday got them to 6-3, making them bowl-eligible. Arizona State will face an interim coach when the Sun Devils travel to Washington for a Pacific-12 Conference matchup Saturday. Washington's 26-16 home loss to No. 4 Oregon last Saturday dropped the Huskies to 4-5 (3-3 in the Pac-12). To add insult to injury, Washington head coach Jimmy Lake was suspended for a week by athletic director Jen Cohen for a sideline altercation with one of his players. That means defensive coordinator Bob Gregory will act as head coach for the game.
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +2.5 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic in on Ole Miss at 7:00 ET. Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2) has its sights set on the SEC's West Division title, a goal that requires not only winning its next two conference games but also requires Alabama (8-1, 5-1) to lose to either Arkansas or Auburn. A&M can't control what Alabama does, so all the team can do is 'take care of business' and then wait and see. Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) has already lost to Alabama, so the Rebels' hopes of a SEC West title are not quite realistic. However, the winner of this game does put itself in prime position for a New Year's Six Bowl (A&M is 11th in the latest CFP rankings and Ole Miss is 15th). The Aggies are riding some strong momentum, after their 41-38 victory on Oct 9 over No.1-ranked Alabama gave their season new 'life' (A&M entered that contest on a two-game slide). A&M has added three more victories since the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies have allowed only 31 points the last three games. The team now ranks 2nd in the nation in allowing 14.7 PPG on 318.3 YPG (15th). Offensively, OB Calzado is no star, completing just 54.9% for 1,556 yards with 12 TDs and 7 INTs. His two best options are WR Smith (35 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (30 catches / 13.5 YPC / 4 TDs). Calzado does get help from a running game that is averaging 191.7 YPG (40th), led by the duo of Spiller (873 yards on 6.1 YPC with 5 TDs) and Achane (706 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs). The Aggies are averaging 38.6 PPG, which works well when one's defense is allowing about HALF that many points! The "ever-lovable" Lane Kiffin has himself quite a team in Oxford this season, one which has a chance to match the 2015 team that went 10-3 after a 48-20 win over Oklahoma St in the Sugar Bowl. QB Matt Corral has completed 66.9% for 2,5627 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs. Corral also chips in a team-leading 528 yards on 4.6 YPC and 10 TDs on the ground while three RBs add between 436 and 471 yards, giving Ole Miss the 5th-best running game in the nation at 237.9 YPG. Corall's one standout receiver is WR Drummond (40 catches / 16.5 YPC / 6 TDs). That said, Ole Miss is the ONLYm in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season. Defense IS a problem though, with Ole Miss allowing 27.0 PPG (72nd) on 432.7 YPG (104th). Ole Miss has lost three straight to A&M but in the last meeting (2019 also in Oxford), the Rebels outgained the Aggies 405-337, with the difference being an A&M 62-yard TD on a fumble recovery. That 2019 Ole Miss team couldn't 'hold a candle' to the 2021 edition and as much as I don't much care for Kiffin, I think Ole Miss has an offense that will be able to 'crack' the A&M defense. Don't forget, Alabama put up 522 yards at College Station and this one is in Oxford (note: Ole Miss averages 524.1 PPG). Take the small home dog but we won't need the points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | USC v. Temple +7 | Top | 76-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Temple at 7:00 ET. Andy Enfield (of Florida Gulf-Coast fame) has been at USC for eight years and last season was his best, as the Trojans advanced to the Elite 8 and finished 25-8. However, Evan Mobley (16.3 & 8.8) was the 3rd pick in the NBA draft and the team's second-leading scorer (Eaddy at 13.7) is also gone. However, SIX of the eight who played 15 minutes-plus are back. USC routed CS-Northridge 8-49 in its opener but now traveled to Philadelphia to take on Temple, coached by former Temple star player, Aaron McKie. The Owls opened with a 72-49 win over Maryland-Eastern Shore.Mobley's 6-10 brother Isaiah (9.9 & 7.3) is back and so is the 6-8 Peterson (9.7 & 5.0). Mobley had 15 points and nine rebounds in the win over the Matadors but it was Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis who led the way with 20 points ( of 11 on FGs). "Boogie is a dynamic scorer," Enfield said. "He made nice passes. He sees the floor well. As he grows as a player, it will be fun to watch." The Trojans exhibited surprisingly good chemistry for the first game, even if it came against an overmatched opponent (Northridge shot just 32.8%, including 4 of 17 on threes). The challenge will be more difficult against the more seasoned Owls. As McKie said about last season, the team didn't get on the floor until Dec 19th and never found its rhythm, going 5-11. Guards Khalif Battle and Damian Dunn were Temple's top-two scorers last season and led Temple with 22 and 18 points, respectively, in the team's opening win. Temple did lose contributors like Moorman, Perry and Barry from last season but the 6-8 Forrester should have a good season plus 6-7 freshman Hicks opened with 9 points and 5 rebounds. The Trojans were a terrific defensive team last season, as they conceded only 65.1 PPG but the Owls have always been known for their defense (Can you say John Chaney?) and even in last year's COVID-interrupted 16-game season, allowed just 68.8 PPG. The Trojans were impressive at home but I think they'll have a much more difficult time finding open shots here in this difficult road venue, plus they can't expect Temple to shoot 32.8% like Northridge did (Temple shot 49.1% in its opener). Temple has the depth to compete and I believe it has a very realistic shot at winning this one outright. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | UCF +2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 95-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* CBB Daydream Believer is on UCF at 1:00 ET. Johnny Dawkins' UCF team led off with a 69-59 win over Roberts Morris and visits Miami on Saturday afternoon, which opened with a 77-67 home win over Canisius. All five starters are back from an 11-12 team. Miami's Jim Larranaga has led the hurricanes to six, 20-win seasons in his 10 years, to all three of the school's 25-win seasons and two of the school's three Sweet 16 appearances. However, his teams have won 14, 15 and 10 games( 4-15 in the ACC last year) the last three seasons.
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11-13-21 | Syracuse v. Louisville -3 | Top | 3-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET. Syracuse head coach Dino Babers made a big 'splash' in his third season at Syracuse, going 10-3 with a bowl win in 2018. However, the 'Cuse fell to 5-7 in 2019 and then went 1-10 in 2020. A bowl berth may be a 'must' in 2021 for Babers to save his job. Syracuse comes in off a bye at 5-4 but more importantly the team is 8-1 ATS, including seven straight covers. Syracuse travels to Louisville this Saturday, where head coach Scott Satterfield's Cardinals are 4-5, after going 8-5 in his first season (2019) and 4-7 in his second season (2020). Satterfield became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Appalachian St St to 40 wins from 2015 through 2018. The Mountaineers won bowls under Satterfield in 2015, 2016 and 2017, before leaving to take the Louisville job before the school's 2018 bowl appearance. RB Sean Tucker is coming off his most productive game of the season (he ran for 207 yards in Syracuse's 21-6 home win over Boston College two weeks ag0) and will take the field looking for an eighth straight 100-yard game. He has 1,267 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) and leads a running game that's averaging 248.8 YPG (3rd) on 5.6 YPC. Dual-threat QB Schrader adds 670 yards rushing (5.6 YPC / 11 TDs), while throwing for 1,119 yards with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. However, he's NOT an accurate passer, completing just 51.8%. Syracuse averages 29.4 PPG (56th) and its defense is holding opponents to 22.6 PPG (44th). Lining up opposite Schrader is Louisville QB Cunningham, who is the team's leading rusher (690 yards / 5.2 YPC / 15 TDs) and is a much better passer (60.5% / 2,077 yards / 9 TDs & 5 INTs). Joined by RB Mitchell (531 yards / 4.4 YPC / 4 TDs), Louisville also has an impressive running game, averaging 205.6 YPG (24th) on 5.0 YPC. Louisville scores in the neighborhood of Syracuse (28.8 PPG ranks 60th) but its defense is allowing 27.4 PPG, five points higher and also is allowing about 1000 YPG more. Louisville needs two more wins (in its last three games) to become bowl eligible. Winning here is pretty much a "must-win." Series history is ALL Louisville, as the Cardinals are 9-2 SU and have covered EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with the Orange. The home team has won four straight in the series, with the favorite covering the last seven (more trends in Louisville's favor). Louisville is just 3-2 at home but the two losses have come 34-33 to UVA, which scored a TD with 22 seconds left in the game and to Clemson, which Louisville led 24-17 into the 4th quarter, before the Tigers scored the game's final 13 points. Note that the Cards reached the Clemson two-yard-line but were SOD on that final drive. Lay the short price, as Syracuse's ATS winning streak ends at seven. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-21 | Villanova v. UCLA -4 | Top | 77-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on UCLA at 11:30 ET. It's an early season showdown of top-four teams, as No. 2 UCLA welcomes No. 4 Villanova to Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles on Friday night. The Bruins are coming off a season in which they won five NCAA Tournament games to reach the Final 4, where they lost to Gonzaga in dramatic fashion in OT! Villanova is coming off an 'average' season these days for head coach Jay Wright, going 18-7 after a loss in the Sweet 16. As evidenced by the schools' preseason rankings, big things are expected of both teams. Villanova visits the City of Angels having welcomed back star PG Collin Gillespie from an MCL injury that ended his 2020-21 campaign early. Gillespie showed no rust with 13 points, five assists and two steals in the Wildcats' 91-51 romp over Mount St. Mary's. Fellow guard Justin Moore shot 6-of-8 from three-point range en route to a career-high 27 points, while a pair of 6-7 frontcourt players, Slater (14-4-5) and Samuels (17 & 6), got their respective seasons off to a good start. UCLA had little trouble in its season opener on Tuesday, winning 95-58 against Cal State Bakersfield. Five UCLA players scored in double figures to usher in a campaign filled with expectations. The perimeter quartet of Juzang (19 & 4), Bernard (19), Jaquez (14 & 4) and Campbell (10 & 4 assists) were joined by 6-5 sophomore Clark (10-7-3) in double digits. The news wasn't all good though, as the 6-9 Cody Riley (10.0 & 5.5 LY) left the game with an apparent knee injury. His status for Friday is unknown. Friday's contest is an opportunity for either team to "send a message" about this campaign's early pecking order. Both UCLA and Villanova have national-championship aspirations and bring similar styles. Jay Wright has two national titles in his resume but all of his success, Mick Cronin is still searching for his first. However, I believe the Bruins are the better team and this is a reasonable price to lay at home. Cronin-coached teams have long been known for their defensive intensity and in the opener, held Cal State Bakersfield to just 37.5 percent shooting from the floor. Pair that with UCLA's balanced scoring and I'm laying the 'short' price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-21 | Bulls +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 93-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My NBA 10* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Chi Bulls at 10:10 ET. The Golden State Warriors went from FIVE consecutive appearances in the NBA Finals to 15-50 in the 2019-20 season. Last season was better (39-33) but NO one expected the Warriors to open the current season 10-1. Any doubts these days regarding Steph's greatness? The Warriors will welcome the Chicago Bulls to San Francisco tonight in front of the ESPN cameras. The Bulls are coming off a 31-41 season, missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. However, Chicago has opened 8-3, after routing the Brooklyn Nets 118-95 on Monday and following with a 117-107 win over Dallas (both games were played in Chicago). |