Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-01-21 | Brewers +137 v. Braves | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
The 1st pick of my STP is a 9* on the Mil Brewers at 1:20 ET. I had a play on the Braves last night and they went on to crush the Brewers by a score of 8-1. Tonight though I think the value has swung back the other way. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson (3-5, 3.86 ERA), who comes in off a super strong outing against the Pirates on Tuesday, going six scoreless. He's now allowed just two runs over two starts since the All Star break and I believe he'll carry over that momentum here. The Braves counter with Charlie Morton (10-3, 3.72), who gave up three runs over five innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. Morton has been great of late, but the Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. right-handed starters. Milwaukee is also 8-2 in its last ten as a road dog. The Braves are only 26-26 at home, while the Brewers are 33-18 on the road. This one has slight upset written all over it. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-31-21 | Brewers v. Braves +137 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 137 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Braves have been trading wins and losses over their last ten games. After a 9-5 loss here in the opener of this series, I believe this pattern will continue. The Brewers have been playing well over the last few weeks, but after four straight wins, I say the "letdown" happens today. The Braves fly under the radar here at home as the underdog. These starting pitchers are more evenly matched than what Vegas is trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (7-5, 2.14 ERA), who gav eup three runs over seven innings in what turned out to be a loss to the White Sox. Clearly, Woodruff has been superb this year. I just think that Braves rookie hurler Kyle Muller (2-3, 2.55) can match him inning for inning. Muller earned his second career win last time out, striking out three over five scoreless against the Mets. He's been better at home than on the road, but I still think he can match his counterpart here. The Braves though have done well in this spot for bettors, going 8-3 in their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in. Great value on the hungry home side. The play is the Braves. Good luck...Larry |
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07-31-21 | Reds +112 v. Mets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. The Cubs are on the verge of being eliminated from playoff contention, while the Reds are well on the way to securing a spot. These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I expect that trend to continue. Cincinnati has won seven of ten and four in a row. I like going against "streaks/runs," whether those are winning or losing, but right now I think the Reds are "locked in." Rich Hill (6-4, 3.95 ERA) makes his second start for the Cubs. In his first he allowed three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Jays. Hill is going to have his hands full though with a red hot Jonahthan India, who had two home runs and three RBI's in yesterday's 6-2 series opeing victory. The Mets got some crushing news as well when they learned that star pitcher Jacob deGrom will be shelved for the season with injury. New York's prospects aren't looking great right now, and I think that Reds' starter Wade Miley can take advantage. Miley (8-4, 2.86) is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last ten outings. Too many uncertainties for this Mets organization, while the Reds come in playing arguably their best baseball of the season. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is the Reds. Good luck...Larry |
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07-30-21 | A's v. Angels +110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET. The Angels trail the Athletics for the Wild card spot and they've lost six in a row to Oakland coming into this series. Clearly, the home side won't be lacking for motivation today. LA has been trading wins and losses over its last four games, and after yesterday's 4-0 series opening defeat here to the A's, I look for this pattern to continue. I say these starting pitchers are evenly matched. Their numbers certainly point to that being the case, as Oakland starter Chris Bassitt is 10-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while LA's Patrick Sandoval is 3-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. This is a double-revenge spot for Sandoval as well, who has already gone up against Bassitt twice this year, losing 6-2 and 6-0. Sandoval in his last outing though struck out 13 in a win over the Twins and he's a big reason why I like the home side here. Bassitt is 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 11 appearances against LA. As I said, these starters are essentially a "wash," but I'll give Sandoval the slight edge for throwing at home here. Does the "double revenge" factor matter? I don't think it hurts! Finally, note that LA is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent. A great situational play here on the Angels. Good luck...Larry |
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07-29-21 | Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-1 | Win | 105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET. Toronto snapped a two-game slide with a big 4-1 win here yesterday and with its ace on the mound, I think the visiting side will find a way to deliver again here on Thursday. Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.44 ERA) gave up three runs and struck out four over four innings in a no-decision to the Mets on the weekend. It was just the third start this year that he's failed to pitch at least five innings. No need to hit the panic button obviously. Note that Ryu is 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA on the road as well this season. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (7-5, 5.23), who has pitched much better over the last month, but he was just pulled from his last start after one inning due to migraine issues. He's been given the green light here, but I say, advantage Ryu! Note as well that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine after holding its opponent to one or less runs in a road victory in its last outing. Look for Ryu to go deep and for Toronto to post a second straight victory. The play is the Jays. Good luck...Larry |
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07-29-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +114 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 114 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the SF Giants at 3:45 ET. The Giants are the No. 1 team in MLB, but they'll be eager to get back into the winners circle after yesterday's humbling 8-0 defeat here to their rivals. LA is undermanned right now, but it still managed to get the job done, bouncing back from a 2-1 series opening defeat. The Giants are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were shut out in, so Johnny Cueto (6-5, 4.09 ERA) has to be feeling confident he can help his team bounce back today. Cueto most recently allowed three runs and struck out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the Pirates on Friday. Over 16 starts the veteran owns a respectable 77/17 K/W. And while Cueto is only 1-2 with a 5.13 ERA on the road, he's 5-3 with a 3.45 ERA at home. He'll be opposed by David Price (4-0, 3.35), who gave up three runs and struck out four over five innings in a no-decision to the Rockies in his last outing. In his limited time, Price has been sharp. Regression does seem imminent though in my opinion. I say it's Cueto that outduels Price. I like the Giants in this bounce-back revenge spot after getting blanked on Wednesday. The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry |
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07-28-21 | Reds +100 v. Cubs | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The 1st pick of my STP is on the Cin Reds at 8:05 ET. The Cubs are sellers at the trade deadline, while the Reds are in the hunt. Off their 7-4 win here yesterday, I like the visiting side to find a way to step up here and get the job done as well. Cincinnati hands the ball to Tyler Mahle (7-3, 3.92 ERA), who earned a no-decision against the Cardinals on Friday, allowing two runs over five innings and striking out five. Mahle has been scuffling a bit of late after a red hot start, but he's definitely been at his best on the road this season, going 2-2 with a ballooned 6.07 ERA at home, but 5-1 with a tiny 2.28 ERA on the road. The Cubs counter with Zach Davies (6-6, 4.30), who allowed two runs off seven hits over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Friday. Davies has turned the corner with his performance over the last month, but I'll point out that he's 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA in all day contests, while only 3-5 with a 5.29 ERA in all night games. Chicago has actually lost four of the last five games started by Davies. Mahle has held the Cubs to two or less runs in his last three vs. them and I believe he's the correct call again here. Great value here on the hungry visitors, the play is Cincinnati. Good luck...Larry |
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07-28-21 | Yankees v. Rays -122 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. Off yesterday's 4-3 defeat, I like the Rays to battle tough here and rebound with a victory in this revenge spot on Wednesday night. New York has been alternating wins/losses over its last four games and I think that pattern continues with rookie Nestor Cortes (0-0, 1.95 ERA) starting this one. Nestor has a sharp 34/10 K/W over his first 27.2 innings, but he returned from the injured list in his last outing and looked pedestrian by allowing three runs over two innings. This is a big test for Cortes here now in this difficult road venue and I say that he stumbles. Tampa comes in focussed now to break a two-game slide. Michael Wacha (2-2, 5.16) gets the nod for the home side. He's been inconsistent this year, but it's not entirely his fault as he's had to move around a lot this year, from the rotation, to the bullpen and then back again. In his last outing he allowed three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Orioles. Wacha's been his most consistent at home though, going 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA. The Yanks are set to welcome back Aaron Judge, but I think that it'll be Nelson Cruz and the revenge-minded home side that find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the short price, the play is Tampa. Good luck...Larry |
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07-28-21 | A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Over/Under (IL) is on Oak/SD Under at 4:10 ET. Last night's contest flew well over the number in the Padres 7-4 victory, but all signs point to a classic duel between two stud starting pitchers on Wednesday night. Neither of these teams has been terribly consistent at the plate over the last month and I think that Sean Manaea (7-6, 3.16 ERA) of the A's and Blake Snell (4-3, 4.92) of the Friars will garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. Manaea has been a work-horse all season for the A's, he most recently gave up one run and struck out 13 over seven innings in a victory over the Mariners on Thursday. He's now struck out at least six in six straight outings and he owns a great 2.94 ERA on the road thus far. Snell hasn't been at his best overall this year, but he's coming off a great outing, allowing one run and striking out eight over six innings in a victory over Miami. He has a respectable 104/51 K/W over 80.1 innings of work and there's no question that he's been at his best at home this season. In fact, Snell is likely the biggest Jekyll and Hyde and pitcher in the league this year, going just 1-3 with an 8.10 ERA on the road, but 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA at home. As mentioned above, this one will be dominated by Manaea and Snell and that's going to lead to this total staying under once it's all said and done. Good luck...Larry |
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07-27-21 | Rockies v. Angels -132 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -132 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
My MLB 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET. The Angels have now won three in a row after yesterday's 6-2 win here over Colorado. I say that LA keeps the momentum rolling. The Rockies enter this one on the other end of the spectrum, losers of three straight. Everything points to this slide continuing in my opinion. The visitors see Austin Gomber (7-5, 3.74 ERA) toe the slab tonight, and he's off a win over the Mariners, allowing three runs over six innings. In 16 starts this year though Gomber has served up multiple home runs. The Angels counter with Jose Suarez (4-3, 2.85), who is coming off a loss to the A's, allowing four runs and striking out four over six innings. The rookie has been strong overall though, and I absolutely think he's the correct call in this starting matchup, especially as he'll be at home. I think Colorado's offensive issues continue and I expect the Angels to take advantage. Lay the price, the play is LA. Good luck...Larry |
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07-27-21 | Marlins -118 v. Orioles | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the Mia Marlins at 7:05 ET. This is the opener of a brief two-game interleague series. The Marlins are off back-to-back wins at home over the Padres and I expect them to keep the momentum rolling here. Both teams are out of the playoff picture, but each is competing. Baltimore has been playing well of late also, but after a series sweep at home over the Nationals this weekend, I believe a letdown is in order here for the Orioles. The visitors hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara (5-9, 3.23 ERA), who hasn't pitched since July 16th, as he's been on the bereavement list. That's significant to note, because in 12 appearances that Alcantara has pitched with at least six days of rest between starts, he owns a sharp 2.60 ERA. Spenser Watkins (2-0, 1.65) has looked great in his limited time for the Orioles. He's conceded one run or fewer in his first three major league starts. Watkins looks primed for regression at some point though, and in my estimation, that time is now. Yes, the Fish are a poor 19-34 on the road, but the Orioles are a terrible 16-30 at home. Miami is 9-3 though in its last 12 interleague road games. I say Watkins takes a step back and the well rested Alcantara steps up and takes advantage. Lay the reasonable price, the play is Miami. Good luck...Larry |
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07-26-21 | Reds +118 v. Cubs | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Cin Reds at 8:05 ET. This is the opener of an important four-game series for each club. As of Monday morning, the majority of the public money is on Chicago in this one, and that's likely going to get even more lop-sided as the first-pitch approaches. But I say this one sets up well for Cincinnati. The visitors took two of three from the Cardinals at home over the weekend, but they're out to bounce-back after yesterday's 10-6 defeat. The Cubs took two of three from the Diamondbacks here over the weekend, including yesterday's 5-1 victory. The Reds roll with Wade Miley (8-4, 2.72 ERA) to open things up, and he most recently allowed one run while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Mets. It was the 11th time this season that he's gone into the sixth inning or beyond (and note, Miley's been at his best on the road, going 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA at home, and 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA away from friendly confines.) The home side counters with Kyle Hendicks (12-4, 3.61), who gave up two runs over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Cardinals. Hendricks has been a bright spot for the Cubs this year. Interestingly, his home ERA (3.92), is slightly higher than his road (3.34). Miley is 2-1 with a 4.88 ERA on four career starts at Wrigley, and 7-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 13 career matchups vs. the Cubs. Hendricks is 6-5 with a 4.24 ERA in 20 career outings against Cincinnati. The starters are a "wash." The trade deadline is quickly approaching and the Cubs are sellers. The Reds though are still pushing for a spot. Chicago is out of contention and after yesterday's victory, I say a letdown here is imminent. I like Miley to match Hendricks inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the under valued underdog. The play is the Reds. Good luck...Larry |
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07-25-21 | White Sox +126 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 126 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Sunday Night "GAME OF THE Month" play is on the Chi White Sox at 7:08 ET. The White Sox have lost six of their last ten, including three in a row. With their ace on the mound, I think they finally get off the schneid. Lance Lynn (9-3, 1.94 ERA), is coming off a no-decision to the Twins on Monday, unforutnate because he conceded just a single run and struck out four over seven innings. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA on the road. Brandon Woodruff (7-4, 2.04) gets the nod for the Brewers. He gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Saturday. It's hard to say anything negative about Woodruff, as like his counterpart, he's enjoying a resurgent season. I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. With a night off before a three-game series at lowly Pittsburgh, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. The White Sox can't afford to look past anyone right now. Look for Lynn to "right the ship" in the finale of this interleague series. The play is the White Sox. Good luck...Larry |
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07-25-21 | A's -122 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The 3rd pick of my STP is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET. Oakland won the opener of this series, but since then it's been all Mariners. After back-to-back losses, I expect the A's to dig deep here and find a way to post a "W" in the finale. Note that Oakland 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two straight losses to an opponent. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Irvin (7-9, 3.42 ERA), who went seven scoreless in a win over the Angels on Monday. Over 113 innings he owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP and 81/20 K/W. The home side counters with the volatile Marco Gonzalez (2-5, 5.69), who gave up two runs over vive innings in a win over the Rockies in his last outing. Starts like that have been few and far between for the third-year pro though this season, and note that he's 0-2 with a 5.34 ERA at home. For all the reasons listed above, lay the reasonable price on the revenge-minded Athletics. Good luck...Larry |
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07-24-21 | Blue Jays -114 v. Mets | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET. I had a play on the Mets last night. It was my Interleague Game of the Month. After back-to-back losses though, as Toronto lost 13-4 in its final game in Boston before coming here, I expect the Jays to bounce back on Saturday night. And Toronto has to be feeling confident here in handing the ball to ace Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.32 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a win over the Rangers in his last outing. Ryu is 5-1 with a 1.23 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets. New York has issues with its offense at the best of times, and it definitely has issues with elite level pitching. Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.99) was shelled for six runs over just one-third of an inning in what turned out to be fortunate no-decision against the Padres last Sunday. It was the shortest outing of his career. Walker is 0-3 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts fo the Jays. Toronto has an opportunity here to do what the Mets did to Steven Matz yesterday, and that's score some runs against their former teammate. And that's exactly what I'm expecting Toronto to finally do here. Note that the Jays are a strong 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent. All things considered, I think we're getting a great price in this one. The play is Toronto. Good luck...Larry |
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07-24-21 | Tigers v. Royals -115 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Royals at 7:10 ET. I like the Royals to keep the foot on the gas and build on their three-game win streak. That includes a 5-3 victory in the opener here against the Tigers, who are primed for a letdown in my opinion after their seven-game win streak was snapped in yesterday's setback. Detroit's Casey Mize (5-5, 3.44 ERA) went four scoreless against the Rangers on Monday, in what turned out to be a no-decision. Mize though hasn't gone past the fourth inning in any of his last three starts and I think he'll have his hands full here with this focussed home side. Which counters with Carlos Hernandez (1-1, 4.91), who enters off a strong outing against the Orioles on Sunday, allowing two runs over four innings. While he's 0-0 with a 6.55 ERA on the road, he's 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home. Look for home field to prove to be a big difference-maker today between these two rookie starting hurlers. The play is Kansas City. Good luck...Larry |
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07-23-21 | Yankees -102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET. Off a 5-4 loss here in ten innings yesterday and with its ace on the mound, I like New York to bounce back in Bean Town on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Gerritt Cole (10-4, 2.63 ERA) who is coming off a win over Boston on the 18th, allowing one run and striking out 11 over six innings. Over his last 15 innings of work Cole has conceded just one run and eight hits. And he has to be feeling confident here, as he's been at his best on the road, going 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with the volatile Eduardo Rodriguez (7-5, 5.19), who comes in off a decent start against the Yanks, allowing zero runs over 5.2 innings and striking out eight in the victory last Friday. Rodriguez though has struggled with game-to-game consistency and despite his strong showing last week, I think he's completely overmatched here. Cole isn't getting enough respect in my opinion. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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07-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets -102 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* IL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The New York Mets are hungry for a win here agasint their former teammate. The Mets have won three of their last four, including a 7-0 win at Cincinnati two days ago. The Jays are off back-to-back home losses to the Red Sox, falling 13-4 and 7-4 respectively. Steven Matz (8-4, 4.43 ERA) is coming off a strong outing against the lowly Rangers in Game 3 of Sunday's doubleheader, allowing three hits over five scoreless innings. He's yet to go six innings in any start since May 25th though and note that he owns a poor 5.69 ERA in all night contests this season. The home side counters with Tylor Megill (0-0, 2.63) who will be hungry for his first win. Most recently he went six scoreless against the Pirates. Over 24 innings of work Megill has a sharp 28/9 K/W. The Jays could be caught looking ahead here as well to a crucial four-game series at the Red Sox after this. Matz has struggled with consistency from game-to-game and facing your former team, especially on the road, is never an easy task. I like Megill to build off his recent performance and to finally get off the schneid with a victory here. A great situational play here in my opinion and the price is great as well. The play is the Mets. Good luck...Larry |
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07-22-21 | Angels v. Twins -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. I think Kenta Maeda and the hungry home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. The Angels have lost three straight and I expect that slide to continue. At least one more game anyways. Minnesota won't be lacking for motivation here. It's played six games since the break and it's gone just 2-4. It's off a 7-2 win at Chicago yesterday and I expect them to build off that peformance with another victory here at home. The Angels hand the ball to Andrew Heaney (5-7, 5.56 ERA), who enters in terrible form, as over his last five starts he's gone 1-4 with a ballooned 8.49 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. I can't see Heaney suddenly "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his issues. This is his worst statistical campaign of his career by far and I think he'll struggle to keep pace with Maeda (4-3, 4.71), who most recently conceded three runs and struck out eight over five innings in the second game of a double-header against Detroit, not factoring into the decision. Maeda has struggled this year as well, but he's been getting progressively better with each outing over the last month, as his latest victory saw him top at least seven strikeouts for a third straight time. Over 72.2 innings of work this year Maeda now owns a respectable 79/24 K/W and everything points to his continued progression this evening. Considering the current form of these starting pitchers, I say we're getting great value on the home side. Lay the price, the play is Minnesota. Good luck...Larry |
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07-22-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout-Part 2 is on the StL Cardinals at 7:15 ET. As soon as I saw this starting pitching matchup, I loved it. I would have probably made this a top-rated 10* release if St. Louis lost yesterday, but regardless, I still think this is fantastic value on a great in-form hurler. St. Louis hands the ball to Kwang Hyun Kim (5-5, 2.87 ERA), who looked strong in his first start out of the break, going five scoreless against the hard-hitting Giants on Saturday. Kim has now posted 19 straight scoreless innings over his last three starts and he's won his last four straight trips to the hill. Chicago sees Adbert Alzolay (4-9, 4.59) take the hill, and he enters off a decent outing, giving up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Alzolay is a respectable 3-3 with a 4.18 ERA, but a pedestrian/poor 1-6 with a 5.12 ERA on the road. Kim is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in two previous starts against the Cubs, while Alzolay is 0-4 with a 5.84 ERA in five starts since returning from the IL on June 21st. These starters are moving in opposite directions and all signs point to those trends continuing here. Great value on the home side in this one. The play is St. Louis. Good luck...Larry |
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07-22-21 | Rays v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on TB/Cle Under at 7:10 ET. Neither team is really known for its offensive power, but both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, with Tampa having seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five, including in its 5-4 win at home over Baltimore yesterday. This is the opener of an important four-game series for the Indians, who broke a two game slide to the Astros with a 5-4 win in Houston yesteday in the finale. After seeing the total go under in three straight, the Tribe have now seen it soar over in back-to-back contests. But the opener of this one in my opinion sets up well as more of a lower-scoring "duel." The Rays hand the ball to Luis Patino (1-2, 4.87 ERA) will be given a chance to remain in the rotation with a decent outing today. Over six appearances and four starts he owns a very respectable 1.18 WHIP. The home side counters with Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.05), who looked sharp in his first start after the break, allowing one run with five strikeouts over five innings in a victory over the A's on Saturday. It was a big step in the right direction for Quantrill and I see no reason why he can't build off that performance. Note as well, while he's 1-2 with 4.44 ERA on the road, he's 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA at home. Cleveland has seen the total go under in seven of its last nine as well after playing to two or more straight overs as well. Look for these two hungry starting pitchers to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's re-caps of this contest. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-21-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* RUN LINE Las Vegas Insider is on the Jays. Whoever gets the start for the Red Sox tonight, I like Robbie Ray and the Blue Jays to win by a decisive margin. And that's why I like the home side on the runline option this evening. Garrett Richards (5-5, 4.91 ERA) is scheduled right now to start for the Red Sox. He's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts against the Jays this year and he's 3-5 with a 5.26 ERA in 11 career outings against them. The home side counters with the red hot Ray (8-4, 2.93), who won his only start against the Red Sox this season back in early June, allowing three runs and striking out ten over six innings. Ray has gotten stronger as the season has prorgressed and he gave up no runs over seven innings and struck out ten in a win over the Rangers in his last outing. He has to be feeling confident here as well as he's 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA in all home contests this year. Look for the hard-hitting Jays to take full advantage of their AL East rival, who sits nine games ahead of them in the standings. Toronto not only wins tonight, it wins BIG. The play is the Jays on the runline. Good luck...Larry |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Suns. I had a play on the Suns in Game 5 and while that pick obviously fell flat, I think that Phoenix will at the very least, take Game 6 right down to the wire. Many felt that the Suns were going to sweep the Bucks in four straight in this series and it definitely appeared as if that could happen after Phoenix took the early 2-0 lead. But it's been all Milwaukee since, as the Bucks have a golden opportunity to close out and win the title this evening. It's difficult to beat a team in three straight games. No matter who the opponent is. I think Milwaukee is going to struggle to put away this talented and desperate Suns side. One constant throughout for Phoenix has been the steady play of Devin Booker, who has 82 combined points over his last two games. The Suns bench only produced 15 points last time out, but I don't expect that to happen twice. Phoenix is also 8-2 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge two straight SU/ATS losses to an opponent as well. Look for Chris Paul to bounce back with a big game here and for the Suns to fight tooth and nail until the final buzzer. While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is Phoenix. Good luck...Larry |
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07-20-21 | Marlins -113 v. Nationals | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Marlins. The Marlins have now lost three in a row after yesterday's humbling series opening 18-1 loss to the Nationals. With their bona-fide ace on the mound though, I like the Fish to bounce back finally. The Nationals are in trouble with their starting rotation, and I say that comes back to bite them tonight. Miami hands the ball to Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31 ERA) who plays with revenge here after losing his only other start against the Nats earlier thi syear, allowing three runs over five innings. Rogers has a significant advantage over counterpart Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33) who is 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA in two career meetings against Miami. Espino is being pressed into service out of neccessity here and I definitely think he's outclassed. And the fact that the Marlins are 7-1 in their last eight in tryihng to revene a road loss of ten or more runs doesn't hurt either obviously. I look for a rested Rogers to bounce back and deliver a victory here for the hungry visiting side. The play is the Marlins. Good luck...Larry |
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07-19-21 | Mets v. Reds -119 | Top | 15-11 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDERS is on the Reds. The Mets bounced back from a pair of losses at Pittsburgh to avoid the three-game sweep with a late 7-6 come-from-behind victory against the Pirates last night, but I think they'll stumble again here. The Reds certainly won't be lacking for motivation though after three straight losses at home to Milwaukee to kick off the secondhalf. That included an 8-0 setback yesterday. This though is a starting pitching matchup which favors the home side and it's the primary reason I like the Reds here. That and the price. Also note that Cincinnati is 7-1 in its last eight after three or more straight home losses in a row. The vistors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (0-1, 4.97 ERA), who has made three appearances in 2021 for the Mets spanning 12.2 innings and he's posted the unspectacular ERA to go along with a poor 1.66 WHIP. The home side counters with Vladimir Gutierrez (4-3, 4.29), who gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Of the nine starts he's made this year, five of them have been quality. I like Gutierrez over Eickhoff. I think the Reds find a way to get back into the winners circle after getting swept and in this favorable spot. And as mentioned, the price is great too. The play is Cincinnati. Good luck...Larry |
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07-18-21 | Indians v. A's -161 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -161 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* AL BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH is on the A's. Oakland took the opener of this series by a score of 5-4, but then Cleveland bounced back with the big upset 3-2 victory on Saturday. The A's though are poised to win this series on Sunday with the superior starting pitcher on the hill though. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Plesac (4-3, 4.31), who came off the injured list to make a final start before the break, and he'd go four innings against the Royals and concede three runs. Note that despite a 3-2 record on the road, Plesac's ERA balloons to 4.98 away from friendly confines. Oakland counters with ace Chris Bassitt (10-2, 3.28), who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the Rangers in his last outing on July 12th. While he's 6-0 with a 3.88 ERA on the road, he's 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA at home. One final note of interest sees the A's having gone 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a one run home loss to an opponent in which they were held to two or less runs in. Expect Bassitt to easily get the better of Plesac and lay this price with confidence. Good luck...Larry |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Suns. I've been riding the Bucks the last couple of games, but here I'm going the other way in Game 5. So far home court advantage has proven to be the difference-maker for these teams, with the Suns winning Game's 1 and 2 handily, before the Bucks responding in kind in Milwaukee in Game's 3 and 4. Khris Middleton had his biggest game of the Finals so far for the Bucks in Game 4, scoring 40 points, grabbing six boards and dishing out four assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points, 14 boards and eight assists. Antetokounmpo has been unbelievable so far in the Finals, but other than his big Game 4 appearance, Middleton hasn't been a very big factor in this series. The same thing can be said for the struggling Jrue Holiday, who was just 4 of 20 for 17 points in Game 4 for the Bucks. Clearly, Phoenix has to be happy its back home. That includes Chris Paul, who uncharacteristically struggled in back-to-back games in Milwaukee. Suffice it to say, I don't expect lightning to strike a third time tonight. I say Paul bounces back here at home. Devin Booker led the way in a losing cause for the Suns in Game 4 with 42 points. Paul and Booker have to be feeling confident here though finally, as note that Phoenix is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 home games and 46-19-1 ATS in its last 66 against teams with winning records. After back-to-back victories, a letdown is imminent here for Milwaukee, which is in fact a poor 3-11 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog. I look for this home court trend to continue in Game 5. And if this keeps up, we're heading for a Game 7 before you know it! Lay the points, the play is Phoenix. Good luck...Larry |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Mariners/Angels. While yesterday's game flew over the number in the Mariners 6-5 upset win, I believe Saturday's contest definitely sets up as more of a pitchers duel. Seattle looks to post back-to-back victories by handing the ball to Yusei Kikuchi (6-4, 3.48 ERA), who missed the All Star game due to COVID protocol. Kikuchi is now fine and cleared to play though and he has to be feeling confident in this spot, as note that he's 4-1 with a 2.71 ERA on the road, compared to 2-3 with a 4.48 ERA at home. The Angels counter with Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.23), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to these very Mariners back on July 10th. Cobb has quietly turned the corner for a while now, as he's allowed only one earned run over his last 13 innings of work. Also note, while Cobb is 2-2 with a 6.47 ERA on the road, he's 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home. I think the stage is set for a good old fashioned "duel" on Saturday night. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-16-21 | Rays v. Braves -124 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Braves. This is a very intriguing opening interleague series to kick things off in the second half, but I think that this opening contest is one which favors the home side. The Rays see Michael Wacha (2-2, 4.87 ERA), gave up one run over six innings in Game 1 of a double-header vs. the Indians last Wednesday. Wacha though has been consistently inconsistent all year, as he's allowed at least five runs in two of his last four appearances (note as well that he's just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.86 ERA on the road this season.) The Braves counter with Charlie Morton (8-3, 3.64), who enters the second half on top form, most recently posting eight strikeouts over seven scoreless in a win over the Marlins in his final outing before the break. Over 99 innings of work, Morton owns an elite 114/33 K/W, and he's 8-2 with a 2.91 ERA in all "night" contests this season. Ronald Acuna Jr. is out of the lineup for the Braves after suffering and ACL tear on Saturday for the Marlins, but now it's just "next man up" for the Braves. Freddie Freeman has a .274 average, along with 19 home runs and 50 RBI's for the Braves over the first half and I expect the veteran slugger to pick up the slack in the second for his fallen teammate. Finally, note that Wacha is 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA in seven career appearances against the Braves. I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Great value here on Atlanta at home to open up the second half. Good luck...Larry |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Game 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the Bucks. Gentlemen. I had a play on the Bucks in Game 3, a blowout winner and if you didn't get to read that analysis, I'm going to share it now, as the logic and reasoning behind that pick, for the most part also directly apply to my Game 4 selection on Milwaukee as well: GAME 3 ANALYSIS I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1. I then had a play on the Bucks in Game 2. I'm going back to the well here in Game 3, as I do finally expect Giannis Antetokounmpo's teammates to show up tonight. Antetokounmpo exploded for 42 points, 12 boards and four assists in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to avoid the 0-2 hole. But now that this series is shifting back to Milwaukee, I think the momentum will shift in favor of the Bucks here. The Suns are a better team at home and they took advantage of a tired Milwaukee club in Game 1. Game 2 wasn't nearly as easy, and Antetokounmpo almost pulled off the upset with little help. Khris Middleton hasn't been effective to this point, but I don't expect that trend to continue here on his own floor. This is it for Milwaukee. A 3-0 hole will be too much to climb out of (just ask the Montreal Canadiens!). Phoenix will likely win this series. I think they're the better overall team. But the Suns haven't been perfect either. Phoenix might not even be in the Finals if Kawhi Leonard was playing for LA, as Paul George and company gave Phoenix a real test. Milwaukee shut down the Nets and I think it can bounce back here in this crucial moment. So that's my read on this one gentlemen, I say the Bucks do indeed bounce back in Game 3. I'll further add here in Game 4, that the Suns are now going to be forced to double and triple-team Antetokounmpo after his back-to-back historic performances, which will finally give Middleton and Holiday a golden opportunity to break out of their respective funks with a huge game. I say the momentum has now swung back in favor of Milwaukee and I believe the "home court" advantage will once again prove to be a difference-maker as well. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 52 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Bucks. I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1. I then had a play on the Bucks in Game 2. I'm going back to the well here in Game 3, as I do finally expect Giannis Antetokounmpo's teammates to show up tonight. Antetokounmpo exploded for 42 points, 12 boards and four assists in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to avoid the 0-2 hole. But now that this series is shifting back to Milwaukee, I think the momentum will shift in favor of the Bucks here. The Suns are a better team at home and they took advantage of a tired Milwaukee club in Game 1. Game 2 wasn't nearly as easy, and Antetokounmpo almost pulled off the upset with little help. Khris Middleton hasn't been effective to this point, but I don't expect that trend to continue here on his own floor. This is it for Milwaukee. A 3-0 hole will be too much to climb out of (just ask the Montreal Canadiens!). Phoenix will likely win this series. I think they're the better overall team. But the Suns haven't been perfect either. Phoenix might not even be in the Finals if Kawhi Leonard was playing for LA, as Paul George and company gave Phoenix a real test. Milwaukee shut down the Nets and I think it can bounce back here in this crucial moment. So that's my read on this one gentlemen, I say the Bucks do indeed bounce-back in Game 3. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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07-11-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* NL WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the UNDER D-Backs/Dodgers. The Dodgers blew out the Diamondbacks here by a score of 22-1 yesterday. Lop-sided contests like that happen a few times over the course of every season, but after that huge offensive explosion, I'm anticipating much more of a "duel" in Sunday's finale. Arizona goes with Merrill Kelly (5-7, 4.60 ERA) who has slowly improved with each start over the last month. He posted three straight victories, before than taking a no-decision against the Rockies on Tuesday, despite allowing two runs over six innings. Note that since June 21st, Kelly hasn't conceded more than three earned runs and he's recored a 2.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 18/2 K/W in that span. He'll be opposed by Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.11), who is also off a no-decision despite allowing no runs over 5.1 innings against the Marlins. Gonsolin has been making spot starts and working out of the bullpen as he nears full strength after a stint on the injured list. Over 21.1 frames of work he has the 2.11 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Finally, note that Arizona has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded ten or more runs in. I think the stage is set for a defensive battle between these clubs on Sunday afternoon. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-10-21 | Angels -110 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Angels. I like the Angels to bounce back after their 7-3 loss here last night. And after back-to-back victories, I expect the Mariners to take a predictable step back here. Despite their win/loss records, these starting pitchers are pretty evenly matched. The Angels go with Patrick Sandoval (2-2, 3.86 ERA), who gave up two runs and struck out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Sunday. Over 49 innings Sandoval owns a respectable 53/22 K/W. The Mariners turn to Chris Flexen (7-3, 3.80), who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Rangers on Sunday. Flexen has posted five straight quality starts. He's been much better at home than on the road, but as I say, for arguments sakes, I'm going to call the starters a "wash" today. Neither has that big of an advantage over the other. LA though has still won five of its last seven games. It's also 4-0 in its last four vs. a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Sandoval's last four starts. The Mariners on the other hand are just 2-6 in their last eight after back-to-back victories as underdogs. Look for the big bats of LA to rebound and for Sandoval to do the rest. The play is the Angels. Good luck...Larry |
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07-09-21 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Angels/Mariners. The Angels took two of three from Boston this week at home. All three contests went under the number. Seattle lost two of three to New York in its lastest home series. Two of the three games in that series went over the number, but off the Mariners lower-scoring 4-1 victory in Thursday's series finale, I expect a much higher-scoring affair on Friday. LA hands the ball to Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.60 ERA), who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the lowly Orioles on Saturday. Cobb though has been inconsistent of late if we dig a little deeper, as he's given up just one earned run or less in three of his past six starts, while allowing a total of 16 earned runs over the other three. He's also been money in the bank at home by going 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA, compared to a terrible 2-2 with a ballooned 7.84 ERA on the road. Seattle goes with Marco Gonzalez (1-5, 5.82), who was shelled for seven runs off seven hits over three innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. Gonzalez has been consistently inconsistent all season. Note, he's 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA at home. On a warm Friday night in the Pacific Northwest, look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game gets into the latter frames. This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 2 SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Bucks. I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1 and while that play came up short, I think the Bucks will make the necessary adjustments to be much more competitive in Game 2. Phoenix had significant advantages in Game 1, which it won't have here. It had a few days of rest between series to focus and regroup. The Bucks finished their series with the Hawks and almost immediately got on a plane to Phoenix. Giannis Antetokounmpo was also a huge question mark going into Game 1. The Bucks had to have two games plans, with or without their super star in the line-up. He played, he was decent and his injury is now behind him. Now Milwaukee can properly focus with its full line-up and I say that's a huge difference here in Game 3. The Suns haven't been perfect during the playoffs, with big lapses in form from game-to-game throughout the Clippers series. This Bucks team is better than Los Angeles in my opinion. Especially with Antetokounmpo now back to full health. I'm not trying to take away how great Chris Paul, Devin Booker and De'Andre Ayton are and have been leading up to this moment, but there's no way the Suns are sweeping this series. While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-08-21 | Tigers v. Twins -121 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Twins. Minnesota won't be lacking for motivation here as it's lost seven of its last ten, including two straight. I think the home side finds a way to get the job done in the opener of this series against the Tigers, who come to town having won four of their last five, including a 5-3 road victory in Texas just yesterday afternoon. The visitors go with Tarik Skubal (5-7, 4.35 ERA), who earned a win over the White Sox last week, despite allowing five runs over five innings. Skubal has been decent in his rookie year, but while he's 2-4 with a 3.75 ERA at home, he's just 3-3 with a 5.67 ERA on the road. JA Happ (4-4, 6.09) won't be lacking for motivation either. Happ gave up six runs to the Royals on Friday over just four innings. Happ has the track record and pedigree to return to form and note that he still owns a respectable 29/10 K/W over his last 34 innings of work. He's also 1-3 with an 8.40 ERA on the road, compared to 3-1 with a 4.37 ERA at home. I like Happ over Skubal at home and considering the circumstances that each side finds itself coming into this one, Minnesota is for sure the correct call in my opinion. Lay the price, the play is the Twins. Good luck...Larry |
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07-08-21 | Rockies +128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 128 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* GETAWAY GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Rockies. Colorado has dropped the first two games of this series, but I expect it to finally bounce back here in the get-a-way game. The Rockies came into this series having won six of their previous seven, but I think they'll indeed get the job done here with Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-5, 5.52 ERA) on the hill, who comes in off a no-decision agains the Cardinals despite allowing just two runs off seven hits over seven innings. Gonzalez has actually been better at home than on the road, but the bottom line is his recent form is promising and I think he'll build off that performance here against this "on again, off again" Diamondbacks offense. The home side counters with the volatile Jake Faria (0-0, 5.25), who was fortunate to earn a no-decision last time out against the Giants, allowing four runs over four innings. Arizona has now lost all five games in which Faria has made an appearance and I expect that string of futility to continue here as well (he's 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA at home as well.) I think Gonzalez and the Rockies bounce-back and take full advantage of this favorable spot. Colorado should in fact be the favorite here, great line value. The play is the Rockies. Good luck...Larry |
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07-07-21 | Phillies -137 v. Cubs | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -137 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Phillies. I had a play on Philadelphia yesterday and I think it'll find a way to get the job done here again as well against the hapless Cubs, who have now dropped 11 in a row. No one likes going on extended losing streaks, and clearly the Cubs are desperate to "bounce back" here and get off the schneid, but the Phillies can't afford to take the foot off the gas either after a choppy and less than impressive first half. MLB is an interesting sport, as every single game has to be looked at individually, because of the starting pitchers. And in my opinion, Zack Wheeler is the correct call today. Wheeler (6-4, 2.05 ERA) is the best kept secret in the National League, he most recently went 7.2 scoreless against the Padres on Friday. He struck out nine. Over his last two games he's posted an impressive 17/2 K/W. Wheeler is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA on the road. His counterpart today is Alec Mills (3-2, 4.85), who gave up two runs over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Reds on Friday. Mills has only 42 innnings under his belt this season, posting a 35/15 K/W in the process. The Cubs losing streak is going to end. Just not today. This is a great price on arguably the hottest pitcher in the league over the first half. I'm banking on Wheeler continuing his recent dominance. Lay the short price, the play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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07-06-21 | Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* 37-CLUB PLAY TOTAL is on the under Red Sox/Angels. Yesterday's game snuck under the total of 10 in Boston's 5-4 series opening victory. I think we'll have much more of a duel here on our hands on Tuesday though, as I once again expect this total to fall under the number once it's all said and done. The Red Sox hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (9-4, 3.41 ERA) who allowed five hits and no walks while striking out six over seven innings in a win over the Royals on Thursday. Eovaldi has 90 strikeouts over 97.2 frames of work and he's been at his best on the road, going 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA so far. The Angels look to rebound from last night's loss by handing the ball to Shoei Ohtani (3-1, 3.60), who is coming off an uncharacteristically poor start by allowing seven runs to the Yankees, lucky to escape with a no-decision. Starts like that have been few and far between for Ohtani though, and I expect the Japanese hurler to return to form here in his final start before the Mid-Summer Classic. These are two potent line-ups, but this particular contest is going to be dominated by these two capable starters in my opinion. One last factor is the vastly improved Boston bullpen, anchored by closer Matt Barnes. I say we have a classic "duel" on our hands here on the West Coast on Tuesday night. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-06-21 | Bucks +6 v. Suns | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Milwaukee Bucks. I think there's value to be had here on the undermanned and underdog Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns had a hell of a time putting away Paul George and the Clippers, who had to play without star Kawhi Leonard, arguably a top 3 player on the planet. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out. Clearly, that's a huge issue for the Bucks. But I say it's more of an issue over the long-term. Milwaukee will throw its best possible shot here in an attempt to pull off an upset. The Bucks are deep and aren't going to be afraid of Devin Booker whatsoever. Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez have the talent and experience here to pull off an outright upset. That's easier said than done though obviously. The Suns are 33-11 at home. Milwaukee is 25-20 on the road. These teams played twice in the regular season. The Suns won both. Both by a single point. It's double-revenge time here for Milwaukee. With Giannis in the line-up, this line drops to right around +2.5 for the Bucks likely. The Bucks are sitting pretty heading into Game 2 if they can somehow pull off the outright here, as Antetokounmpo would be expected to then return. I say Milwaukee fights tooth and nail and at the very least, takes this one right down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is the Bucks. Good luck...Larry |
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07-05-21 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER White Sox/Twins. The White Sox have seen the total go over the numbe rin seven straight and in eight of their last ten, but everything points to more of a duel here in the opener of this series. Chicago turns to Dylan Cease (7-3, 3.75 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out seven over six innings vs. these very Twins last Wednesday. It was his second straight win and his fourth in his last five starts. The White Sox blasted out six home runs in that game and plated 13 overall. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that to happen again today. The home side counters with Bailey Ober (0-1, 5.84), who is out for redepemtion here, as he threw opposite Cease last week. It was his first career loss. The rookie has struggled in some areas (allowing seven home runs already), but been exceptional in others (26/6 K/W). One thing to note here is that the Twins have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 as a home dog in the +101 to +115 range. I think Ober will bounce back here in his second try against the White Sox and there's no reason not to believe that Cease can't carry his momentum over here. This number is high in my opinion, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-04-21 | Giants -147 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NL WEST GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Giants. The Giants won here 6-5 last night and I think they'll find a way to get the job done here as well. San Franisco hands the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (8-3, 2.91 ERA), who enters off a loss despite allowing three runs with six strikeouts, his first setback in over a month. DeSclafani though has exceeded expectations to this point in San Francisco, as he's allowed three runs or less in six straight starts. Note as well that he's 4-2 with a tiny 2.16 ERA on the road this season. The home side will see Caleb Smith (2-4, 3.08) take the hill, he most recently is coming off a loss to the Cardinals on Tuesday, allowing two runs over five innings. Smith has been decent overall, but he's struggled with command of late, posting a 4.9 K/9 over his last three starts. The Diamondbacks have been poor in this spot for bettors as well, going just 19-43 this season vs. right-handed starters, while also going only 12-33 this year vs. clubs with winning records. The Giants on the other hand are 27-15 this year vs. teams with losing records. I like DeSclafani to coninue his hot hurling on the road and all things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry |
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07-03-21 | Bucks +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 6 SHOWDOWN is on the Bucks. Whether Trae Young plays here or not, I like the Bucks to dig deep and find a way to end this series here and now. They'll be doing that without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who hyper-extended his knee. But Milwaukee was able to win Game 5 handily without its super star as well. The Hawks managed a Game 4 victory at home without Trae Young, but his absesnce was definitely felt in Game 5. Young is listed as a "GAME TIME DECISION" for Game 6. Clearly, if Young does play, he's not going to be at 100% health. Khris Middleton is averaging 22.7 points and 4.7 assists in the playoffs, and he and Jrue Holiday, who is the third double-digit scorer, definitely stepped up and filled the void last time out. Brook Lopez was also key. I think this group has what it takes to end this series, whether Young plays or not. Bobby Portis was another player who stepped up big for Milwaukee, and with group contributions like that, I can't see Atlanta keeping pace down the stretch. While clearly the outright win is very possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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07-03-21 | Red Sox v. A's -115 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Oakland Atheltics. The Red Sox managed a 3-2 win here yesterday, but I like the A's to bounce-back and find a way to deliver in this revenge spot on Saturday. The visitors go with the volatile Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.96 ERA), who was rocked for five runs off 11 hits over just 5.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Royals on Monday. Richards got out to a decent start to the season, but he's been trending in the other direction over the last month, as he's now been crushed for 20 runs over his last 16.2 innings of work. Cole Irvin (6-7, 3.64) has been better than anyone could have expected in his first year for the A's. I think he'll carry his recent momentum over here, as he most recently earned a strong win over a dangerous Giants' team in interleague action last Sunday, going eight scoreless and striking out eight. Over five June starts Irvin owns a sharp 2.64 ERA and I don't see any reason why he can't continue his recent form of elite play at home. The A's are also 7-3 in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to two or less runs in. I'm banking on this 70% trend improving after tonight. Great value on a red hot hurler and the revenge-minded home side. The play is the A's. Good luck...Larry |
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07-02-21 | Rangers -105 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* AL WEST GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Rangers. Texas was the laughing-stock of the league over the first month and a half, but it's playing it best ball of the season right now. I think that trend continues here. The Rangers have won five of their last six, including yesterday's contest at the A's by a score of 8-3. And now they send their ace to the mound in Kyle Gibson (6-0, 2.00 ERA), who earned a win over the Royals in his last outing, going seven scorless and striking out ten. Gibson has now allowed two or fewer runs in his last eight starts, posting a 1.68 ERA in that span. He's also 1-0 with a 3.14 ERA on the road and 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA in all "night" games. The Mariners also got off to a terrible start, and they've also been playing much better of late, entering having won seven of their last ten, including two in a row. They counter with Logan Gilbert (2-2, 4.25), who's last start was suspended in the third inning vs. the White Sox due to a rain-out. Gilbert has exceeded expectations for the Mariners this year, but note that the rookie is a poor 0-2 with a ballooned 6.46 ERA at home. At this price, I love Gibson and the red hot Rangers. The play is Texas. Good luck...Larry |
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07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +120 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Canadiens. I have played on Montreal over the first two games on the puckline and come up short. I can't lay the price on the Habs on the puckline in Game 3, but I don't think we're going to need that extra goal and a half anyways. With a line like this, the oddsmakers agree that this is going to be an evenly matched game. But Montreal does have the advantage, in that this is the first time that Tampa has travelled out of the country to play this season. The subtle differences in dealing with travel and all the rest of it is going to throw a proverbial "monkey-wrench" into Tampa's series sweep hopes in my opinion. The Lightning have been exceptional defensively over the first two games, but Tampa has definitely shown inconsistencies throughout these playoffs. Clearly, Montreal has to get something going offensively, or this series is going to be over. The Habs though are 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge two losses against an opponent. The Canadiens won't be panicking here, as they had to come from behind to knock off the Leafs in the first round after dropping to 1-3 in that series. Montreal is also 10-2 in its last 12 when playing on one days rest and 4-1 in its last five after scoring two or less goals in its previous game. I say this series gets a lot more interseting after tonight. The stage is set for a letdown here for Tampa, and nice payout for Montreal as a straight-up Game 3 winner. The play is the Canadiens. Good luck...Larry |
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07-02-21 | Spain v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* EURO-CUP QUARTER-FINAL TOTAL OF YEAR is on the OVER Switzerland/Spain. Switzerland is off a wild, high-scoring shootout win over the French in the round of 16. Spain beat Croatia 5-3 to advance. Switzerland though has to be feeling confident after coming back from a 3-1 deficit to France to send it into extra time, and then eventually win on penalty kicks. A win for Switzerland today would see it go farther than in any other major tournament, having reached the quarterfinals of the World Cup in 1934, 1938 and 1954. Spain had a 3-1 lead going into the 77th minute with Croatia before almost throwing its lead away. Spain will be wary here to mess around, as it's actually not had the best Tournament to this point, drawing its first two fixtures. It then put five goals past Slovakia in its final group match, and just had five in their last one as well. There's no reason to believe that Spain won't continue to find the back of the net here either. You may want to consider the "BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE" prop as well. But here I'm expecting a faster-paced affair, one which flies over this number in regulation. And that's the play, the over in regulation between Spain and Switzerland. Good luck...Larry |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -3 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Bucks. The Hawks managed a win at home without Trae Young in the lineup in Game 4, but I think the Bucks will bounce-back and take advantage of familiar surroundings on Thursday night. Young will almost assuredly being play tonight, but even if he does suit up, one has to wonder about his health/form? Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.2 PPG for Milwaukee, but he's out in this one most likely because of a knee injury he suffered last time out. Expect Khris Middleton to pick up the slack here. Much like Atlanta winning without its star in Game 4, I believe Milwaukee can rally here and do the same here on its own floor. Note that Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 90 points or less in. These are two tired and banged up teams. I say though that it's Atlanta which is primed for a letdown here after its upset win in Game 4. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest as well. With its leader sidelined with injury, look for the home side to dig deep and to post a solid SU/ATS victory on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry |
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07-01-21 | Mets v. Braves +151 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 151 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* NL DOG OF THE MONTH is on the Braves. Do I think that Atlanta can match its 20-2 win here yesterday over the Mets? I don't at all. But I do think the Braves are going to find a way to build off yesterday's victory with another one here. The Mets send ace Jacob deGrom (7-2, 0.69 ERA), who comes in off a no-decision to the Phillies in his last outing, allowing two runs over six innings. Clearly, deGrom is having a great year. He's been one of MLB's best over the last five years and it's basically impossible to say anything negative about him. So I'm not going to bother to try to. I simply feel he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. I don't trust the Mets' bullpen on the road either and the bottom line is, I think that Braves' starter Ian Anderson can match deGrom inning for inning. Anderson (5-4, 3.42) will be hungry to return to the winners circle here after allowing three runs and striking out nine in an unfortunate loss to the Reds on Saturday. Over 81.2 innings of work Anderson owns a great 88/29 K/W. Andreson faced the Mets two weeks ago and he conceded no runs over five innings in what turned out to be a 1-0 victory. As I stated up top, I don't trust the Mets as a big road favorite here, despite deGrom getting the start. This one has "u-p-s-e-t" written all over it. The play is Atlanta. Good luck...Larry |
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06-30-21 | Twins v. White Sox -123 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Division Game of the Year (AL Central) is on the White Sox. The Twins won the AL Central last season for the second straight season, making it three playoff appearances for Minnesota in the previous four seasons. Meanwhile, the White Sox went 35-25 and grabbed a postseason spot in 2020's expanded playoff field, ending an 11-year postseason drought for Chicago. Entering 2021, Chicago, Cleveland and Minnesota (all made the playoffs in 2020) were expected to contend for the division title or for one of the AL's two wild card spots. That's been the case for the first-place White Sox (46-32) and the second-place Indians (42-33) but the Twins have seen their season "get away from them," as they sit 33-44, 12 1/2 games back of Chicago and 10 back of Cleveland. Dylan Cease is in his third season, going 9-11 with a 5.00 ERA over 26 starts in 2019 and 2020. He's made 15 starts in 2021 but note that the White Sox are 9-3 in his last 12. What's more notable is his home and away dichotomy. Cease owns a 6.08 ERA in eight road starts (team is 3-5) but a 1.63 ERA and .196 BAA in seven home starts, with Chicago going 6-1. Cease and the White Sox are the play. |
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06-30-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 2 STANLEY CUP FINALS TOP-PLAY is on the Canadiens. Montreal was down 1-3 to Toronto in the first round, before then winning three straight. The Canadiens then took care of the Winnipeg Jets in four straight, before then needing six games to get past the Golden Knights. In every series, the Canadiens have been the underdog and they're obviously once again a big underdog in this game and in this series. Especially after losing 5-1 in Game 1. I think at this price range, that we're getting great value by getting the extra goal and a half in Game 2. I'll caution in over-reacting to one loss by Montreal, as it's been fantastic at making adjustments from game to game throughout these playoffs. I'm not trying to diminish how great the Lightning really are, and their road back to a second Stanley Cup hasn't been any easier than Montreal's. But at the same time, the Lightning sure haven't been perfect in this playoffs. They barely got by the Islanders in seven games and they've been susceptible to letdowns. I think that's going to be the case here. The outright upset is definitely possible. I'm not counting out Carey Price and this under-the-radar Canadiens team ever anymore. The bottom line is I expect Game 2 to be much more competitive, so in a contest that I see being decided late, I'm going to lay the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals. The play is Montreal on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-29-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -141 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The third pick in my STP (a 10*) is on the Dodgers. The Dodgers have won four in a row. They beat the Giants 3-2 here last night in the opener and I expect them to find a way to another victory on Tuesday. Clearly, this is a much-anticipated starting pitching matchup. Kevin Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA) of the Giants and Walker Buehler (7-1, 2.51) of the Dodgers are for all intents and purposes, completely even in this matchup. Buehler has a 0.92 WHIP and Gausman has a 0.77. Both teams have done really well, both at home and on the road, but the Dodgers are 7-1 in their last eight as a home favorite in the -135 to -155 range. The Giants managed 11 hits yesterday to the Dodgers 5, and still lost 3-2. I can't see San Francisco getting nearly that many today off of Buehler. Look for the "small ball" Dodgers to do what they do best and to get another victory at the end of the night. The play is LA. Good luck...Larry |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Hawks/Bucks. Even without Trae Young playing (he could), I think Game 4 sets up as more of an offensive affair, than a defensive one. Young is obviously a big part of this Hawks offense, but this is a feisty Atlanta team which won't be going down without a fight. John Collins, Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic will be pressed to fill the void. And for Milwaukee, it can obviously smell the blood in the water now. The Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points and 13 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 23.1 points and 4.7 assists. Jrue Holiday is a third double-digit scoring threat for Milwaukee. Young will do everything in his power to play tonight (obviously), but as I stated above, whether he does or not, this one has the feel of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a tight defensive "chess match." This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-29-21 | Germany v. England OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -55.5 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* EURO-CUP TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER England/Germany. England has struggled to find the back of the net so far in this tournament, but I expect the Three Lions to finally get things rolling here against a Germany team which has been susceptible on the backend. England has two 1-nil victories and a scoreless draw. It hasn't allowed a goal in 450 minutes of football, but now it faces its most daunting task here in Germany's attack. Joachim Low and Germany will be out to push the pace and get the Three Lions on their heels. If England has to play from behind, it's going to be out of its comfort zone and that's something that Low wants to see happen here. Neither team has any significant injuries to deal with either. But if England is going to get by this offensive juggernaut, it's going to need its captain Harry Kane to rediscover his golden form. Germany's attack is the most efficient that England has seen and I think it's defense will finally get cracked here. Look for this total to fly well over in regulation before the final whistle sounds. Good luck...Larry |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 5 SHOW-DOWN is on the Clippers (analysis posted shortly). Kawhi Leonard will not be playing in this contest, but I think that Paul George and this veteran Clippers team won't be going down without a fight. George had 23 points and 16 boards in his team's 84-80 Game 4 loss. Reggie Jackson added 20 points. George though had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night, finishing just five of 20 from the floor and only one of nine from range. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that to happen twice, especially with elimination on the line. The Suns have been fantastic, exceeding everyone's expectations all year. There's also no question that they're in unchartered territory here. I think Phoenix is going to struggle to put away this desperate LA side. The Clippers earn a win here, and they have nothing to lose heading back home for a Game 6. Also note that the Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 points or less in. In what I expect to be another really tight game, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Habs/Bolts. Montreal's Carey Price is only allowing an average of 2.04 GPG in the playoffs, while the Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy is conceding just 1.9 in the postseason. The main reason these two clubs are here right now is because of their tough defensive play, and unbelievable goaltending. We know these teams can play defense. We know these goaltenders have the ability to "steal" a game on "any given Sunday." We don't have to question these team's defensive game-plans or mentality. But the winner of this series is going to be the one that can generate offense. Tampa would seemingly have the upper-hand in that department, as it finished the regular season among the best in almost all offensive statistical categories. The Habs? Not so much. But with a few extra days off to prepare for this one and to get their "legs" back underneath them after a gruelling journey to this point, I think it will indeed be these offenses which garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. So that's my read/call in Game 1. I expect a faster-paced, more wide-open affair, one which sees the total fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 TIE-BREAKER is on the Hawks. I think this is going to be a war until the final bucket. Whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last is going to be the winner in my estimation, so because of that, I'm going to grab the points. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.9 points and 13.2 rebounds for the Bucks in this series, while Trae Young is averaging 29.4 points and 9.9 assists for the Hawks. Milwaukee was much better at home than on the road this year. It's 32-11 ATS at home, and a mediocre 23-19 on the road. Atlanta is better at home too than on the road, going 22-23 away from friendly confines and 28-13 ATS on its own floor. In fact note, the Hawks are 20-6 ATS their last 26 here. Atlanta hasn't lost back-to-back games since May 1st and it's done a great job in making adjustments after a setback each time during the playoffs. I look for that trend to continue here from Nate McMillan, who would have also been a great candidate for Coach Of The Year honors. Grab the points, but don't be shocked if it's outright. Good luck...Larry |
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06-27-21 | Portugal v. Belgium +150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 150 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* WIPE-OUT WINNER is on Belgium. Lukaku vs Ronaldo. I say Lukaku wins out today. In four of the last six meetings between these clubs, the total has eclipsed "over" 2.5 goals. Belgium scored seven goals during the group stage. Portugal has seen five of its last six games having at least three goals being scored. Perhaps playing a "BTTS" score prop, or the "OVER" is worth a second look as well. But for this selection, my play is definitely on Belgium to win outright in regulation. Roberto Martinez's side has won five of the last six matches in all competitions, inculding all three Group Stage contests. Portugal was vulnerable against Germany and it also failed to beat France. I say that Portugal continues to struggle against the World's elite here as well. Lukaku had three goals in the group stage and I expect him to have a big game here as well. I think Portugal is weak on the backend and Belgium will find a way to eventually take advantage. The play is Belgium in regulation. Good luck...Larry |
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06-26-21 | A's v. Giants -118 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* 37-CLUB PLAY is on the Giants. I like the Giants to build off their 2-0 win last night. The A's hand the ball to Frankie Montas (7-7, 4.79 ERA), who got shelled for eight runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the lowly Rangers on Monday. Over his last seven starts Montas is a poor 2-5 with a 4.65 ERA He also owns a 5.11 ERA in all road games and a 5-6, 5.15 ERA in all "night" contests. Long story short, I do not expect Montas to suddenly "throw a switch" here and solve all his issues from his last start. Instead, I expect him to struggle throwing opposite his consistent counterpart Alex Wood (6-3, 4.09), who gave up six runs as well in a loss to the Phillies in his last outing. Unlike Montas though, starts like that have been few and far between for Wood this year. He still owns a sharp 65/21 K/W over 66 innings this year and at this price, I think he's the correct call in this starting pitching matchup. I look for San Francisco to take advantage of the shaky Montas at the road and for Wood to bounce-back in friendly confines. Lay the short price, the play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 THRILLER is on the Clippers. Devin Booker and Chris Paul looked exhausted and out of sync in Game 3. I think that Paul George and the Clippers can take advantage here in Game 4 and post a second straight victory on their own floor. Paul had 15 points, 12 assists and three steals, while Booker had 15 points in the setback. Paul was just five of 19 from the floor, while Booker was just 5 of 21. George had 27 points and 15 points, while Ivica Zubac and 15 points and 16 boards. Patrick Beverely had a decent game with eight points and six boards, but he played really good defense against Booker and I expect the veteran to bring that same intensity tonight in Game 4. The Clippers are now 5-0 ATS in their last five at home and they have the experience and home floor advantage to take Game 4 outright. In fact, if not for a tight loss in Game 2, one which could have easily gone in favor of LA, this series would have an entirely different feel to it right now. Even with Paul in the line-up for the Suns and Kawhi Leonard out for the Clippers, I don't think Phoenix is the better team. It's been a great team all year, but it's in unchartered territory at this point. The Clippers are seasoned veterans, all playing with a chip on their shoulders. I think LA is the better team and I expect it to even things up before heading back to Phoenix. The play is the Clippers. Good luck...Larry |
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06-26-21 | Denmark -113 v. Wales | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Denmark. Wales finished second in Group A to Italy, while Denmark finished second to Belgium in Group B, despite losing its first two games. Wales made it to the knockouts in 2016 as well. The Dragons lost 1-0 in their final group match against Italy. Of note though is that Wales has lost its two previous matches in Amsterdam, in 1998 and 2014 and it won have any supporters present here. Denmark supporters will be able to attend though. Christian Eriksen will be on the front of everyone's minds today. A 4-1 win over Russia in their final opening game was enough to push the Danes through and I believe they carry that momentum over. Denmark and Wales have no significant injuries to report. That said, Denmark got the better of Wales both home and away during the 2018 UEFA Nations League and it's now seven places higher than the Dragons in the FIFA rankings. I think the Danes have enough factors working in their favor today to continue their success in this matchup. So that's my call on Saturday morning, rolling with Denmark. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 119 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
The third pick of my STP (a 10*) is on the DODGERS on the run line. I say the starting pitching matchup in this one is so lop-sidedly in favor of the home side, that I'm going to suggest laying the 1.5 runs for the decent return. The visitors go with the volatile Jake Arrieta (5-8, 5.45 ERA), who gave up six runs over three innings in a loss to the Marlins. He's now allowed four earned runs in consecutive outings and note that he's been at his worst on the road, going just 3-4 with a ballooned 6.55 ERA. The home side counters with Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 3.00), who has allowed three runs off nine hits over his first three starts of 2021. Gonsolin has been sharp at home this season though, sporting a tiny 2.81 ERA. Recent form tips the scales in favor of Gonsolin here. Expect LA to not only win today, but to win by a significant margin. The play is the Dodgers on the runline. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the UNDER Hawks/Bucks. To say I'm surprised by how well Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks are playing would be an understatement. This isn't just a "playoffs" thing either, as Atlanta caught fire over the final month and a half of the regular season as well. The biggest turnaround has been the Hawks' suffocating defensive play. The Knicks also entered the post-season as one of the hottest teams in the league, but the Hawks absolutely shutdown Julius Randle and went on to win in five games. Atlanta got down early in Game 1 and had to battle from behind, but when the Hawks needed a couple of big defensive plays late, they did just that in the outright upset victory. The Hawks are obviously more comfortable playing with a lead, as they're then able to smother teams defensively. Milwaukee can't be pleased with the way it collapsed defensively. The Bucks can score, but they'll be out to atone for their lacklustre performance on the defensive end in Game 1. From a situational stand point, this one in my opinion for sure sets up as more of a defensive affair (and note, the Bucks have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded 115 or more points in.) Game 1 went over, but everything points to Game 2 staying under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 7 DECIDER is on the Lightning PUCK LINE. The last time these teams played here, the Lightning won by a score of 8-0. Am I predicting another lop-sided destruction like that again here? Of course not. But I do expect Tampa to Game 7 handily. This sets up well for Tampa. It has the experience and the home ice advantage. The Lightning were 26-8-2-0 at home, while the Islanders are only 16-17-3-1 on the road. Home ice has been crucial for each team in this series of late and I expect that strong trend to continue here. Goaltending and defense, two of the most important factors, are a "wash" for me here. The difference is Tampa's offense (and its experience in big games like this.) Note that the Lightning are 63-17 in their last 80 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. They're also 65-25 in their last 90 when playing on one days rest. It's been an awesome run for the Isles, but I look for Tampa to advance and to play Montreal. The play is Tampa on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Suns/Clippers. Game 1 went over the number in the Suns victory. LA looked good for three quarters, but then faded down the stretch after coming from behind to knock off the Jazz. Game 2 went under the number in Phoenix's slim 104-103 last-second victory. I think this back-and-forth pattern on the total continues in Game 3. LA has to be the aggressor from start to finish here. It's already been down 0-2 in every other series up to this point, before then rallying for victory. Will that happen again here? It's hard to imagine the Clippers advancing past the Suns, especially with Chris Paul returning to the line-up tonight for the visiting side. But Paul won't be in "game shape" quite yet and this is Paul George's best chance to get his team back into this series. Momentum is an almost tangible factor in the playoffs and while the Clippers came up just short in Game 2, I still think they can turn things around with a win today. And there are rumors that Kawhi Leonard could return before this series ends as well. So with a win today and Leonard returning for Game 5, the stage could be set for another big series come-back for the Clippers. Whether Leonard played or not, I didn't think the Clippers were going to get swept in this series. LA will have to be the aggressor from the start. With the home side pushing the pace, look for the Suns to match that tempo. I am expecting a faster-paced, wide-open shootout in Game 3. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-24-21 | Golden Knights -142 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -142 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 6 SHOW-DOWN is on the Knights. The NHL would love nothing more than this series to move back to Las Vegas for a decisive Game 7. The Knights are reeling off a humbling Game 5 loss at home, but I expect the visiting side to throw everything it has at Carey Price and the Canadiens to try and extend it one more game. Las Vegas finished as the No. 1 defensive unit in the league, but it was equally adept on the offensive end, as it finished No. 3 overall. This Canadiens playoff team has been incredible. For the most part it's grinded out victories to get to this point. Tough defensive play and fantastic goaltending. The Knights though have played really well in this spot for bettors though, as they're 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in. Tampa wasn't able to get the job done on the road last night in Game 6 and that series will now go to a Game 7. I don't think that Montreal has what it takes to end this series tonight either, as it plays much better with its back against the wall. This is the best price so far this series for the Knights, and I'm all over it. The play is Las Vegas in Game 6. Good luck...Larry |
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06-24-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* RUN-LINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Astros. The Astros destroyed the Orioles 13-0 on the road last night and I expect another blowout victory here for the visiting side as well. And after three straight vitories, I do now believe that the Tigers are going to have a predictable letdown here in this unfavorable starting pitching matchup. The visitors go with Luis Garcia (5-4, 2.82 ERA), who comes in off another strong out, this time going seven innings and allowing one run and striking out eight. He unfortunately received a no-decision for his spectacular effort. He's better at home than on the road, but I still absolutely believe he's the correct call here, as he'll face volatile Tigers' starter Jose Urena (2-7, 5.79) who is off a loss to the Angels on Friday, allowing seven runs off seven hits over four innings. Over his last two starts spanning six innings, Urena has been rocked for 15 runs. I like Houston to keep the good times rolling at the plate here against the erratic Urena, as I look for the Astros to not only win this game, but win by a significant margin. The play is Houston on the run-line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-23-21 | Dodgers +107 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
The third pick of my STP is a 10* play on the Dodgers. I like the Dodgers to bounce back after last night's 3-2 loss. LA scored a run in both the eigth and ninth innings, but it just wasn't enough. But I think the champs bounce back with Trevor Bauer (7-5, 2.45 ERA) on the hill tonight, he most recently earned a win over the D-Backs, going seven scoreless, allowing just three hits and striking out eight. Bauer continues to dominate in almost every statistical category there in pitching and I don't see that slowing down any time soon. The ome side counters with Joe Musgrove (4-6, 2.28), who also comes in off a strong outing, going seven scoreless against the Reds on Thursday. Musgrove has been on the end of some heartbreaking losses this year, and tonight also sets up as being one of "those" types of nights. LA has done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for LA to get back into the winners circle on Wednesday night. Good luck...Larry |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS Game 1 DECIDER is on the Bucks. Am I impressed by the Atlanta Hawks? How could you not be! Ever since Nate McMillan took over as head coach, this has been a "different" Atlanta team. Many feel McMillan should have actually won Coach Of The Year, instead of Tom Thibedeux. Regardless, a renewed commitment on the defensive end is the reason why the Hawks are where they are right now. They shut down Julius Randle and the Bucks and they did the same to everyone on the 76ers with the last name that's not Embiid. And the Hawks did have troubles with the 76ers big man, who pretty much did what he wanted. The Bucks have a similar type player in Giannis Antetokounmpo (who is averaging 28.8 points and 13.6 rebounds in the playoffs), but he's even more dynamic and a bigger matchup issue overall in my opinion. And the steady play of Khris Middleton is another issue that the Hawks will have to contend with. I think the public is enamoured with Atlanta, but the sharp call is with Milwaukee to comfortably pull away down the stretch. I'm laying the points, the play is the Bucks. Good luck...Larry |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +137 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 137 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* EAST SEMI-FINAL GAME 6 BATTLE is on the Islanders. The Islanders play better at home. They won Game 4 by a score of 3-2, then fell flat in an 8-0 loss in Game 5 in Tampa. Clearly, that was an outlier. For both teams. It got ugly and out of hand and the Islanders were already looking ahead and planning for Game 6. New York finished 26-6-2 at home. The Lightning were sure good on the road, but note that New York is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a shutout road loss against an opponent. With the season on the line, I think the Isles can bounce back at home. They're still 5-2 their last seven as an underdog (they're also 8-3 in their last 11 when playing on one days rest.) Tampa's not going to roll over, but it still has one more chance to wrap up this series on home ice. I say the "hungrier" team wins Game 6. Great value here on the Islanders. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Canadiens/Knights. This has been a very defensive series so far. The first three games "pushed" on 5, while Game 4 went well under in the Knights' 2-1 win. We're all tied up heading back to Las Vegas now and with the shift in venue again, I'm finally expecting some pucks to find the back of the net tonight. Clearly, Marc-Andre Fleury and Carey Price have stolen the headlines in this series, but note that the Canadiens have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge an OT home loss to an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in. Vegas is No. 1 in the league defensively, conceding just 2.18 GPG. But it's also the No. 3 offensive team, averaging 3.39 GPG. The Knights' defense has been stymied to this point, but Montreal could be ripe for the picking here after its late collapse in Game 4. The Lightning/Islanders series was also a very defensive one up until Tampa's 8-0 blowout win last night. I say this series takes a similar turn here as well as far as the scoring is concerned. Look for a faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring Game 5. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Clippers. LA had its chances in Game 1. Paul George looked great. LA was unable to take advantage of a Suns side without star Chris Paul in the line-up in Game 1, but it'll try to do so here. LA has been masterful in making game-to-game adjustments, even without start Kawhi Leonard in the line-up. Devin Booker got the last laugh in Game 1, but George and the Clippers have played well in a revenge spot, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which they allowed 120 or more points in. Phoenix had the advantage with a couple extra days off between series, and that helped down the stretch. LA though still has to be encouraged that it was right in Game 1 until the end, despite shooting a poor 45 percent form the floor. I say that LA can keep the foot on the gas for a full four quarters in Game 2. The outright upset is possible, but in the end my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-21 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the OVER Braves/Mets. These are two teams that have struggled with offensive consistency this year. They're facing two really good starting pitchers as well. They played a double-header yesterday and both of those contests fell "under" the posted number. Despite all of that though, I think this line is finally a bit too low and the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. Charlie Morton (6-3, 4.03 ERA) is coming off a strong start for the Braves, going 7.2 scoreless in a win over the Cardinals on Thursday. It was his first scoreless outing of the year. Morton has looked significantly better for his new team over the last month, but note that while he's 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home, he's just 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.42 ERA on the road. Marcus Stroman (6-5, 2.34) is coming off a hard-luck loss to the Cubs on Thursday, allowing just two runs over seven innings. It's difficult to say anything negative about Stroman, as he's been the Mets' most consistent starter this year, but I do believe he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. After getting held in check yesterday, I expect these still talented hitting line-ups to finally plate some runs today. In my opinion, this number is too low. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-21 | Scotland v. Croatia UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* EURO CUP TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Croatia/Scotland. Scotland drew were England nil-nil in its most recent match, while Croatia also ended with a 1-1 draw against the Czech Republic. Croatia is struggling offensively, and I don't expect that to change here vs. the defensive-minded Scots. Ivan Perisic scored the equalizer for Croatia against the Czech's, but finding the back of the net even once against Scotland could prove difficult. Croatia needs outside help and it needs to win to advance. The Tartan Army won't be rolling over though obviously. While a goalless draw isn't great for the fans, it has to be viewed as a victory by Scotland. However, Scotland has yet to find the back of the net in the Tournament, and that could once again be an issue here against this determined Croatia side. Croatia have been forced to cope without Rangers left-back Borna Barisic, and he's listed as questionable again this afternoon. Clearly that's not good for Croatia's attack. Scotland also got dealt a major blow with a positive COVID 19 test for Billy Gilmour. Yes, both teams are "desperate." But I don't think that fact is going to magically lead to a bunch of goals suddenly being scored here. In fact, I say it goes the other way, that these two defensive-minded clubs once again rely on their strength and wait for the other to make the first mistake. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-21-21 | Islanders +162 v. Lightning | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 5 DECIDER is on the Islanders. The Canadiens looked like they were going to cruise to a win last night with a 1-0 lead late in the third period, but then the Knights scored to push it to OT and now they're heading back to Las Vegas all tied up at 2-2. The Islanders and Lightning are also tied. New York looked very dominant in its 3-2 win over the Isles at home in Game 4 and I believe it has the blueprint to success against the Lightning. I'm not reading too much into the home ice advantage and I think that these teams are in fact evenly matched across the board. It wouldn't be difficult whatsoever to write a really convincing argument for the Lightning to bounce back here and that there is in fact value on laying this larger price for them to do that. But I don't think that's where the value lies at all on the side tonight. As I say, I don't think the home ice matters as an advantage for these teams, and I also don't think that the Lightning are a vastly better team. So for me, that swings the value to this undervalued underdog. This dogs barking on Monday night and I expect it to deliver. The Islanders are the play in Game 5! Good luck...Larry |
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06-21-21 | A's v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* RUN-LINE PERFECT STORM is on the Rangers. I like the hungry Rangers to at the very least, keep this within a single run. Texas enters off six straight losses, while after winning seven in a row, Oakland comes in off consecutive losses at the Yankees. The bottom line is though, I think that these starting pitchers are evenly matched, and that swing the value to this hungry home dog in my opinion. Frankie Montas (7-6, 4.21 ERA) is coming off a good outing against the Angels on Tuesday, allowing two runs over seven innings while striking out eight. He's actually been better on the road than at home, but note that he's also just 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA in all "night" contests. Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.09), also enters off another strong start, allowing one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Tuesday. Gibson has been especially strong at home though, going 3-0 with a minuscule 0.97 ERA here. As I say, I'm banking on Gibson getting the better of Montas today and while I do think the outright win is possible as well for the Rangers tonight, this is just too good price in my opinion to turn down on the runline. The play is Texas on the runline. Good luck...Larry |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -127 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 4 TOTAL is on the over Knights/Canadiens. This has been an evenly matched series. So far all three games have "pushed" on the O/U at 5, but in Game 4 I do finally predict more of a wide-open affair, as the favored Golden Knights look to control the tempo as to avoid a dreaded 1-3 hole. Vegas had a 2-1 lead heading into the final minutes of Game 3, before a late goal by Montreal, followed by the OT winner. Despite how the Canadiens ended up winning (whether you consider that a "lucky" victory or not), Montreal has played unbelieavably overall in the playoffs and I don't think it's getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. Each team has experienced, World-class goaltenders and elite defenses, but note that the Knights have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last nine in trying to revenge an OT road loss to an opponent. I think Game 4 sets up great from a few different situational and trend based angles as being a faster-paced, higher-scoring contest. The play in Game 4 is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-20-21 | Clippers +5 v. Suns | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 1 DECIDER is on the Clippers. Two major players are out for each team. The Clippers are without star Kawhi Leonard, and the Suns will be without star Chris Paul. LA advanced by taking out the Jazz in six games, while Phoenix swept Denver in four games. The Clippers took two of three in the regular season. Paul George has filled in admirably though in place of Leonard and there's no reason not to think that he can't carry over that momentum here. George averaged 29.2 points to beat Utah. Terance Mann had a career night with 39 points in the Game 6 win over the Jazz as well. The big question here is, will rest lead to rust for the Suns? It might. And then throw in the additional factor of not having your floor general to guide them, this does indeed set up as a letdown spot for Phoenix in my estimation (note that they are in fact just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 when playing with three or more days rest.) And conversely, the Clippers couldn't be more in-sync with each other right now, despite the absence of Leonard. I thinks "Playoff P" is for real and while I do believe the outright victory is possible, in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-21 | Bucks +1 v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 7 DECIDER is on the Bucks. If Kyrie Irving and James Harden didn't get injured, this series would be over. But they did get injured. Irving won't be playing in this game, and clearly James Harden is far from being 100%. Kevin Durant is playing out of his mind right now, but the veteran has to be fatigued at this point and I think that the depth and experience that the Bucks bring to the table in Game 7 will be the difference-maker in the end. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 30 points with 17 rebounds and three assists for the Bucks in their dominant Game 6 victory and I can't see the short-handed Nets slowing him down tonight either. Durant had 32 in a losing cause in Game 6, but Harden added just 16, while Blake Griffin had only 12 points. Khris Middleton though had 38 points and ten boards for Milwaukee last time out. I think Brooklyn's injury issues do now finally come back to haunt it here in Game 7. A healthy and focussed Antetokounmpo is the correct call in Game 7. I'm on the Bucks. Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +114 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 114 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 TIE-BREAKER is on the Islanders. New York won Game 1, but the Lightning have taken the last two. I like the Islanders to bounce back here in Game 4 though, before the series shifts back to Tampa. Game 3 was tight, and it could have gone either way. The Lightning won though 2-1. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 28 shots. Semyon Varlamov has been great for the Islanders though all year long and there's no reason not to believe that he can't continue his strong play in Game 4. Despite the loss last time out, the Isles are still 7-2 in their last nine as a home dog. Clearly, with a line like this the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. And they are, but with their backs against the wall and looking to avoid the dreaded 1-3 hole, in my opinion, everything points to the Isles finally bouncing back here after two straight losses. Great value on New York in Game 4. Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-21 | Poland v. Spain OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Euro Cup TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the OVER Spain/Poland. I expect plenty of balls to find the back of the net in this one. Spain can't be happy here after its goalless draw with Sweden on Monday. Poland will be out to atone for a 2-1 loss to Slovakia in its opening match. It wasn't from a lack of trying for Spain in its opening game, but it ran into a red hot keeper in Robin Olsen. With Slovakia up next, the Spaniards know they'll need to press the pace here and win convincingly. Poland's form is terrible, as it has just one win in its last eight matches. These teams haven't faced each other since 2010, and in that game Spain won 6-0. I don't expect such a lop-sided discrepancy here, but I do expect plenty of goals and a similar final combined score here between these two hungry sides. Considering the circumstances each side finds itself in, I believe this total is much too low. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-21 | A's +115 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Athletics. The A's held on for a 5-3 win last night and I believe they'll build off that victory and find a way to get the job done here as well. The visiting side hands the ball to ace Chris Bassitt (7-2, 3.43 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Royals on Sunday. He's on top form right now, having won four straight and everything points to that progression continuing on Saturday in my opinion. The Yanks go with Domingo German (4-4, 3.88), who suddenly comes in struggling, in fact he's off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for seven runs off ten hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Phillies last weekend. He's now 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA over his last four starts. Oakland is rolling, as it's 13-2 in its last 15 games and 19-9 on the road overall. Look for Bassitt to continue to roll here. Great value on the red hot Athletics. Good luck...Larry |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -120 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* MONEY-LINE PERFECT STORM is on the Utah Jazz. Both teams are injured. Utah though is desperate to keep its season alive after falling 119-111 in Game on Wednesday. Donovan Mitchell is questionable for the Jazz, but Kawhi Leonard is still out for the Clippers. Paul George had one of the best games of his career last tie out, posting 37 points, 16 boards, five assists and two blocks, while Marcus Morris added 25. I just can't see lightning striking twice for these two players, who have been consistently inconsistent with their game-to-game performances over the last couple of season (George in particular.) The Clippers have been in "must win" mode for the last three games, but I just can't see them beating this Jazz team (with or without Mitchell), in four straight. Bojan Bogdanovic continues to play at a very high level for Utah, as he had 32 points in a losing cause last time out. I'm also expecting Rudy Gobert to step up his game here for Utah. Finally note that Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road and still 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while the Clippers are a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. George stepped up his game big time in the first game without Leonard, but I expect fatigue to be a factor here for the veteran. Look for the hungrier and more desperate Jazz to gut out a victory here on the road and send this one back to Utah for a decisive Game 7. The play is Utah on the money line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the UNDER Knights/Canadiens. Both teams lead the playoffs in most offensive and defensive statistical categories. Both have World class goaltenders and in this important Game 3 contest, I believe they'll garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The past two games have gone under the number, with both defenses controlling the tempo and nothing is going to change here either. Marc-Andre Fleury and Carey Price are playing unbelievably right now and each has the ability to take over a game and a series. The Canadiens won't be out to push the pace here now that they have the advantage of being back at home. The last thing Montreal can clearly afford to do is to try and open things up and give these high-flying Knights any sort of momentum on the offensive end. Montreal has been incredibly disciplined throughout the playoffs, waiting for its opponent to make a mistake to then take advantage. Everything points to yet another highly-competitive, lower-scoring under in Game 3. Good luck...Larry |
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06-18-21 | Indians v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Pirates. After winning three straight, the Pirates have now lost ten in a row. Clearly, Pittsburgh has many issues across the board. That said, we also don't have to question Pittsburgh's collective resolve here to get off the schneid and back into the winners circle. I think that's working in our favor here today, as I expect the Indians to get caught disinterested here in this non conference contest. Cleveland has won seven of ten and it just swept the Orioles in four straight at home. This is the opener of four straight series on the road, but a letdown here seems imminent for Cleveland. Jean Carlos Mejia (1-1, 4.26 ERA) has been OK in his limited time for the Indians, but he's largely untested and his 13/5 K/W over 12.2 innings isn't anything to write home about. It's been a difficult season Pirates starter Chad Kuhl (0-4, 6.52), who allowed six runs over four innings in a loss to the Brewers on Saturday. If Kuhl has had one bright spot on his resume though this season, it's been his play at home, where he has a 4.59 ERA, compared to a 7.74 ERA on the road. Last year Kuhl was 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA on the road, and 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA at home. Clearly, Kuhl throws better at home than on the road. I say this one means much more to Kuhl and the Pirates this evening and while I do think Pittsburgh can "steal" this one outright, in the end let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is Pittsburgh on the run line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Nets/Bucks. Depending on when you played Game 5's total, you either won, lost or pushed. It was close. Most would have pushed on the closing line. Regardless, this series has been a very low-scoring one. And that's surprising, because Milwaukee finished as the No. 1 offense in the league in regular season. Brooklyn finished near the bottom in almost every defensive category as well. I think Game 6 will be a wide-open affair. Milwaukee let a 17-point lead slip away in Game 5, so clearly it'll be out to atone for that mess-up, and that means playing hard for a full four quarters. Can Kevin Durant duplicate his historic performance from Game 5? KD has been unstoppable so far in this series and I can't see that trend changing here in this critical moment. Despite the injuries to Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the Nets role players are rallying and doing more than enough to support Durant. Harden has been cleared to play here, and he should be signficantly better after returning from injury and getting that first awkward game out of the way. Expect these two offensive-minded clubs to finally blast past this number with a competitive, higher-scoring Game 6. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +124 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* EAST SEMI-FINAL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Islanders. This is going to be a back-and-forth series. New York held on for the win in Game 1, and then the defending champs rallied and responded in Game 2. Now the series shifts to Long Island and I think that New York will return the favor and find a way to get the job done here in Game 3. Tampa's offensive numbers were superior in the regular season, but each team's numbers are pretty much even in the playoffs. Both are filled with experienced talent and with a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. And so do I. From goaltending, defense, offense, special teams and coaching, it simply would not be difficult whatsover for me to write a very convincing argument for either of these talented sides to win. So why then do I like New York in Game 3? The Islanders return home where they're 25-5-2-2. The Lightning are 20-11-1-2 on the road. New York though is a near-perfect 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a two goals or greater road loss to an opponent. This series could easily see seven games, but Game 3 points to the Islanders bouncing back on home ice in my opinion. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -119 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -119 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Mets. I think Marcus Stroman, at this price and throwing at home, is the correct call in this particular matchup. The Cubs go with Kyle Hendricks (8-4, 4.46 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Cardinals on Saturday. Hendricks has won six in a row, but note that he's been plagued by the long-ball of late, allowing eight home runs over just his last four starts alone. Stroman (6-4, 2.33), is coming off a dominant win as well on Saturday, as he allowed one run over 6.1 innings against the hard-hitting Padres. Stroman has won three in a row and he's absolutely been at his best on this field this season, going 3-1 with a tiny 1.91 ERA thus far. With a chance to sweep the Cubs, and with the much more consistent starter behind them, I like the Mets to get the job done here in the finale. Lay the short price, the play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-21 | Belgium +108 v. Denmark | Top | 2-1 | Win | 108 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Belgium. Belgium destroyed Russia 3-0 and I believe it'll crush Denmark as well today. Belgium didn't even feature its full line-up in the win over Russia, which makes its victory all that much more impressive. Denmark lost to Finland and now it has to move ahead without its best player for the rest of the Tournament. The last three encounters between the countries sees Belgium have two wins and a draw. Christan Eriksen is "OK," but a distraction overall for Denmark. Denmark has an inability to finish chances, and I have a hard time seeing it even finding the back of the net a single time today against this World Class team from Belgium. Belgium won't be taking the foot off the gas, or looking past anyone. It's full speed ahead every game and I believe that'll be the case here against this overmatched Denmark side. Great value here on the "better" team. The play is Belgium. Good luck...Larry |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
My 10 PUCKLINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Canadiens. I had a play on Montreal in Game 1 and that obviously came up short. The Canadiens had been on quite the roll before that Game 1 performance, and they're going to now have to get creative here if they want to avoid an 0-2 hole. These teams are similar in many regards, but the Canadiens are going to have to dial up the pressure on the defensive end if they have any hopes of getting back into this series. Montreal though has acutally done exceptionally well in this spot for bettors, as note that it's 6-0 in its last six when playing with one days rest. The Canadiens are also still 5-1 their last six as an underdog and 7-1 in their last eight against teams with winning records. The odds are stacked against them, but I think Montreal makes the necessary adjustments to make Game 2 much more competitive. In a contest which I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The play is Montreal on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Philadelphia 76ers. This has been a back-and-forth series. I think that trend continues here, as I like Philadelphia to bounce back after the Game 4 loss. It's all tied up now at 2-2, but the 76ers have to be feeling confident that they can recover at home. Philadelphia actually had a 13-point half-time lead. Somehow the Hawks managed to claw their way back into it, despite 76ers big man Joel Embiid going for 17 points and 21 boards. I had a play on the 76ers in Game 4, on the money line. Obviously I was not too happy the way that one ended. The price is too steep to play on the money line here, but I'm expecting a decisive victory anyways. The Hawks are still only averaging 107 PPG in the playoffs, while the 76ers lead all teams in the postseason with an average of 121 per contest. Philadelphia is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss, while Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on this floor. Look for the 76ers to answer here with a resounding victory after the Game 4 loss. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians -154 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Indians. Cleveland won 7-2 here yesterday over Baltimore and I think it'll maintain its momentum and post another solid victory in what sets up to be another favorable starting pitching matchup for it. The visitors hand the ball to Keegan Akin (0-1, 4.13 ERA), who gave up three runs over four innings in a loss to the Rays. The rookie hasn't been anything to write home about so far and he enters with a poor 0-1, 4.43 ERA record on the road. Aaron Civale (9-2, 3.17) counters for the home side and he just went eight scoreless against the Mariners. Here's another line-up that Civale can take advantage of. Note that he's 4-1 with a tiny 2.62 ERA at home this year. Akin hasn't even made it into the sixth inning in any of his starts and I think he'll stumble trying to keep pace with the steady Civale here in this difficult road venue. All things considered, I believe this line could in fact be a lot larger. There are a plethora of great factors working in favor of Civale and the Indians today. My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Cleveland. Good luck...Larry |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Brooklyn Nets. The Bucks have evened this series back up. Milwaukee has been less than impressive in this series though. It got destroyed in both games in Brooklyn, before then barely holding on for an 86-83 win in Game 3 at home. The Bucks looked a bit better in their 107-96 win in Game 4, but they still could barely pull away, even with the injury to Kyrie Irving. Now Irving is out for Game 5 and James Harden is also still sidelined with injury. But Kevin Durant is playing. And the Nets are still a deep and well-coached team. It's now or never for Brooklyn's role players to step and contribute here. The Bucks have struggled with consistency from game-to-game, especially on the road. The Nets have done well in this spot for bettors, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 at home and a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in their last eight in trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. I like KD to defend home court. Outright victory? I'd say it's worth sprinkling a little on the money-line, but in the end my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is Brooklyn. Good luck...Larry |
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06-15-21 | Tigers v. Royals -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* American League NON-DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Royals. Off their 10-3 defeat here to the Tigers yesterday, I think that Mike Minor and the Royals are going to bounce-back in fine fashion on Tuesday. The Tigers hand the ball to Casey Mize (3-4, 3.44 ERA), who gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Wednesday. The rookie has been surprisingly steady across the board, but I'll point out that Detroit is a terrible 2-7 in its last nine after scoring ten or more runs in a road victory in its last outing. Minor (5-3, 4.50) is coming off perhaps his best start of the season, allowing one run and striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over the A's. Minor has now posted at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven starts and I think this is another extremely favorable matchup for the surging veteran. Finally, note that the Royals are 8-3 in their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded nine or more runs in. Great price on the revenge-minded home side. The play is the Royals. Good luck...Larry |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 145 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* PUCK-LINE PERFECT STORM is on the Lightning. I had a play on the Islanders in Game 1, and they cashed out at +175. Here though I think they're going to be completely satisfied with having already earned the split, while I expect Tampa to respond and risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to avoid the 0-2 hole. These teams are very similar on both ends of the ice, except Tampa's offense is better. I said in my Game 1 analysis that New York had the defense to pull off an upset not only in Game 1, but in this series as well. But to do that, many different things are going to have to fall into place for the Islanders. Do I think that New York is going to sweep the Lightning? Of course not. Do I think that the Isles will take both of these opening games in Tampa? I don't either. I think that Tampa is going to respond and win today. But not only, win BIG. As note that the Lightning are a near-perfect 7-1 in their last eight playoff games in trying to revenge a home loss in which they were held to one goal or shutout in. Expect the Bolts to cruise to a sizeable victory in Game 2 and play on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry |
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06-15-21 | Germany v. France +175 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 175 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* EURO CUP GAME OF THE WEEK is on France. Could this opening match be any bigger? It's a big one alright. France though has five wins and a draw over its last six games, while Germany has three wins, two losses and a draw over its last six. The Germans have held the French to two straight draws the last two games that these countries have played in Germany. France played to two straight 3-0 wins before the Euro Cup started. Didier Deschamp enjoyed Euro Cup success back in 2000, and now he's out to lead France to victory as manager. The Germans have jus been too inconsistent of late, with a 6-0 loss to Spain, and a 2-1 defeat to North Macedonia. Germany also struggled in Russia in 2018. France is the better offensive team for sure, but I'd argue it's also the better defensive team. I say that Deschamp is out to send an early message with a decisive attack from start to finish. The play is France. Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-21 | Canadiens +232 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Canadiens. I had a play on the Islanders last night and just like that play, I also believe that Montreal has much more than just a "punchers chance" in Game 1, and in this series. The oddsmakers though aren't giving Les Habitens much of a chance in Game 1, or this series. This line is not accurate in my opinion considering how well the Canadiens are playing right now. And so for me, that swings the value to the undervalued underdog. I said last night that the Islanders had the defense to slow down and upset the high-powered Lightning attack, and the exact same thing can be said here of Montreal, who dispatched of two straight high-scoring machines in Toronto and Winnipeg. And the Habs beat the Jets in four straight, after going to seven games with the Leafs, which included climbing out of a 3-1 deficit. Clearly, the Knights are a great team as well. They have the No. 1 defense in the league and the No. 3 offense. I just think that the longer layoff won't help the Golden Knights offense and when considering all of the above situational factors I've listed, this price it just too steep in this situation And as I've already said as well, that for sure in my opinion swings the value to this red hot Habs team, which will be throwing everything it has and riksing life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to try and pull of the upset. I say Montreal manages to "steal" Game 1, as it continues its improbable run to the Cup Final. The play is the Canadiens. Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-21 | Rays v. White Sox +100 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the White Sox. This is an interesting starting pitching matchup, but I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in it. Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 2.57 ERA) gets the call for the Rays and he most recently allowed one earned run over seeeven innings in a win over the Nationals on Tuesday. It's difficult to say anything negative about Glasnow, I just think he's overmatched on the road here against Chicago's ace Lance Lynn. Lynn (7-1, 1.23) will enter motivated after receiving a no-decision in his last outing, despite only conceding a single run and no walks over seven innings vs. Toronto on Wednesday. The hard-throwing right-hander has now allowed one or no earned runs in eight of his 11 starts this season. Both teams are hot. I'll point out though that the White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight home games with a moneyline attached from -105 to +115. I like Lynn to continue his incredible campaign and for Chicago to strike first in this three-game series. The play is the White Sox. Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-21 | 76ers -158 v. Hawks | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -158 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* MONEYLINE PERFECT STORM is on the 76ers. For this selection, my advice is to just bypass the "spread" option entirely, and lay the price for the 76ers to win this game straight up. I do like the 76ers against-the-spread as well, but because this one's on the road, I have ultimately decided to lay what I deem to be a very reasonable price on the moneyline option. After getting the better of the 76ers in Game 1, it's been all Philadelphia in this series, as it's taken the next two. That includes a convincing 127-111 win here in Game 3. I expect a similar final combined score here as well. The 76ers outshot the Hawks 58.2 percent to 47.6 percent from the field in Game 3, and 47.6 percent to 23.6 percent from three-point range. This is a bad matchup for the Hawks, who will need a superhuman effort from Trae Young every single night to have any hopes at pulling of an upset. The Hawks don't have an answer for Philly big man Joel Embiid either, who had 40 points and 13 boards in Game 2. While Atlanta had success slowing down the Knicks' offense, the trio of Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons is just too much now for the Hawks to handle. As I said, this one could be close at the end, so that's why I'm laying the price and taking the 76ers on the moneyline. Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Nuggets. I thought Denver would put up a better fight than it has in this series. My hat goes off to the Phoenix Suns, who definitely look like the team to beat in the West this year. However, I don't expect the Nuggets to get swept in this series. I believe Nikola Jokic will dig deep here and carry his team with his biggest game yet so far in the series and playoffs. And I do finally expect his teammates to give him support. The Suns are dominating in almost every facet right now, so it's really difficult to say anything negative about Chris Paul, Devin Booker and company, but after three straight victories over this really good Denver team, I absolutely am now finally predicting a letdown here for Phoenix. The Suns would love to clinch this series in front of the hometown crowd anyways! Obviously that's not really the case, Phoenix will try its hardest to end the series here and now, but with the knowledge that it can still do that at home in Game 5, it does add to our theory here of this being a "letdown" spot for the visitors today. The Nuggets are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a ten points or greater home loss to an opponent. My "SITUATIONAL STUNNER" packages are based upon a great "situation" and this particular contest lines up great in every respect in my opinion. While the outright is clearly possible, in the end let's grab the points. The play is Denver. Good luck...Larry |