Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-18 | Chargers +7.5 v. Rams | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 58 m | Show | |
It's understandable that the Rams sit on top of most people's NFL power ratings. They are strong on both sides of the ball. But I envision the Rams struggling to win this game for a number of reasons. Sean McVay held his key players out during preseason. The Rams were able to get away with that because their opponents during the first two weeks of the regular season were the Raiders and Cardinals. Both are winless. The Chargers represent a major upgrade. The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. They don't carry a strong home field advantage especially against this opponent, which also plays now in LA. The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 road contests. It is difficult for a team to blow out the Chargers because of Philip Rivers. During their last 18 games, the Chargers have lost by more than a field goal only four times. Rivers is an elite quarterback and is having another excellent season ranking in the top-four in touchdown passes, yards, completion percentage and passer rating. The Rams have a trio of good wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. But Keenan Allen is the best wide receiver on the field. He trumps them all. Rivers is especially effective when he has Allen. Much is being made of Joey Bosa being out. Sure his absence lessens the Chargers' pass rush. But the Chargers still have Melvin Ingram and their secondary, already good, is even better this season with the addition of star rookie safety Derwin James. The Rams are missing one of their key defensive cogs, too, with linebacker Mark Barron expected to sit out a third straight game due to an Achilles injury. The Rams' kicking game was a huge strength last season because of Greg Zuerlein. However, he's out. So the Rams are going with largely untested backup kicker, Sam Ficken. |
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -5.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 7 m | Show | |
Both teams are 0-2 and desperate. The Texans have the talent, huge defensive edge and home field to do more about it. DeShaun Watson is getting less rusty and better each week. Getting deep threat Will Fuller back is huge for him. As good as Odell Beckham Jr. is, I would take DeAndre Hopkins over him. The Texans are coming off one of their ugliest and most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing 20-17 on the road to the Titans last Sunday when Tennessee was missing its three top offensive tackles, leading receiver tight end Delanie Walker and going with backup Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. This should mean a huge maximum effort from Houston this week. The Texans' defensive line should control a disappointing Giants offense that is averaging a meager 14 points a game. Eli Manning is well past his prime. He's been terrible and so has the revamped Giants offense line. Nobody has played well on it, including left tackle Nate Solder. Manning was sacked six times in New York's Sunday night loss to the Cowboys. J.J. Watt should be able to dominate. Pat Shurmur has not made a difference. The Giants are as bad under him as they were during Ben McAdoo's two-year stay. Houston's offensive line is no great shakes either. But the Texans have the superior defense and Watson is extremely mobile. Those are enough important edges to ensure the Texans beat the Giants by at least a touchdown. |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes. But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game. The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed. Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury. The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team. Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. |
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09-22-18 | Arizona State +18.5 v. Washington | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
It's strange but true. Arizona State has won 11 of the past 12 games in this series, including winning last year. The Sun Devils have covered in their last eight visits to Washington. The Huskies have the strongest defense in the Pac-12. Arizona State, though, is used to strong defenses having gone against Michigan State and San Diego in its past two games. The Sun Devils have an explosive passing attack spearheaded by senior Manny Wilkins, who has thrown for back-to-back 300 yard games. He has dangerous receiving weapons, including N'Keal Harry, who I regard as the best wide receiver in the Pac-12. Washington hasn't seen receivers this good all season. Washington has been just average on offense. I do like Myles Gaskin. However, the Huskies' offensive line isn't an elite unit and quarterback Jake Browning is overrated. He has four touchdown passes and four interceptions. I think there is very good value in taking a number I consider inflated.
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech can put up points sparked by quarterback J'Mar Smith and running back Jaqwis Dancy. They've help the Bulldogs average 42 points. Skip Holtz has taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons. The Bulldogs have hung with other SEC foes during the past two seasons losing by one point to South Carolina last year and to Arkansas by one point two seasons ago. This is an in-state game that Louisiana Tech is going to take far more serious than LSU, which is in a letdown spot and also caught in a division sandwich. The Tigers pulled out a one-point road victory against Auburn last week as a double-digit 'dog by scoring nine unanswered points in the fourth quarter. LSU hosts Mississippi next week. That's an SEC matchup the Tigers will be pointing to not this non-conference game. Note, too, LSU has yet to commit a turnover in three games. That's hard to sustain.
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09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
Under Tony Sanchez, UNLV has received better coaching and recruiting. The Rebels have now reached borderline bowl status. They were right with USC on the road in their opener until the final couple of minutes and are off two confidence-building blowout victories. The Rebels have the quarterback and ground game to hang with Arkansas State on the road. The Red Wolves have a strong tradition and also are historically well-coached. But their defensive front is nothing great and UNLV can attack it with dual-threat quarterback Armani Rogers and Lexington Thomas, one of the best running backs in the country. Only two teams average more than the Rebels' 346.7 yards on the ground. Arkansas State ranks 96th in stopping the run. The weather forecast is in UNLV's favor, too. There is a chance of rain with wind in the 10-15 mph range. The Rebels are a running team while Arkansas State is the superior passing team. The Rebels used to be patsies on the road. Not anymore under Sanchez covering eight of their last nine away contests. The Red Wolves have failed to cover in their last four home games.
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09-22-18 | Pittsburgh -3 v. North Carolina | 35-38 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
This is turning into a lost season for North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost to California in their opener, were buried in Week 2 by East Carolina, 41-19, as 16 1/2-point road favorites and then didn't play last week against Central Florida because of Hurricane Florence. The aftermath of this hurricane as made it very difficult for North Carolina to focus and prepare for this matchup. That won't be the case with Pittsburgh. The Panthers are in huge revenge mode. Their 34-31 loss to the Tar Heels cost them a bowl berth last year. The Panthers have their confidence up after an impressive 24-19 home win against Georgia Tech last Saturday. Pitt has a good runner in Quadree Ollison and its quarterback, Kenny Pickett, played much better than he did earlier in the season. The Panthers shouldn't encounter problems going against a defense that yielded 510 yards of total offense to East Carolina.
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
What is the oddsmaker trying to tell you by making USC, which is 1-2 and hasn't looked sharp, more than a field goal favorite against unbeaten Washington State? They are saying the Trojans are the superior team. I believe that, too. I envision the Trojans playing their best game of the season. Washington State has played far weaker competition than USC having beaten Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington, an FCS team. By contrast, USC has taken on Stanford and Texas during the last two weeks. Both of those losses came on the road. Now the Trojans are at the LA Coliseum where they have won 17 in a row, including 12 straight versus Pac-12 foes. This will be the fourth start for J.T. Daniels, one of the most highly recruited quarterbacks in the country. Daniels has tremendous talent and dangerous receivers. USC's running backs are better than they have shown so far especially Stephen Carr. Washington State no longer has its star quarterback, Luke Falk. Gardner Minshew, a transfer from East Carolina, has done well as the Cougars' quarterback. But this is a real step-up game for him. The Trojans have an overall talent edge and bursting frustration that is ready to be let loose here.
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09-19-18 | Reds +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -129 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
Strange things happen in September during baseball season. One such thing is Matt Harvey pitching well again. Harvey is pitching his best ball this month posting a 2.50 ERA in three starts. Certainly the Brewers are the superior team, but the Reds have gone 5-5 during the past 10 meetings in Milwaukee. The Reds can hurt the Brewers again drawing lefty Gio Gonzalez, who hasn't been effective during the last four months after pitching well in April and May. He's allowed five earned runs or more in five of his last 10 starts. The Reds are 22 games below .500. However, they are a far more respectable 22-23 versus lefty starters. If given the cushion of plus 1 1/2 runs, Cincinnati would be 9-2 in its last 11 games.
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09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago. But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team. Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive. Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight. Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3. Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers. The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good. Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money. |
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09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 151 h 59 m | Show |
The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet. The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. |
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09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -4.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 141 h 48 m | Show | |
The Falcons are on extra rest while Carolina is banged-up and making its lone road appearance for the first five weeks of the season. The Falcons' defense has greatly improved holding seven of their last nine opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Panthers are severely banged-up in the offensive with both of their tackles out. Cam Newton still is experiencing accuracy problems and likely won't have his star tight end, Greg Olsen. The Falcons have defeated the Panthers the past three times hosting them. Their winning margin has been by 11.3 points. After facing a weak Dallas passing attack in Week 1, the Panthers will be challenged far more by Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. The Falcons are helped much more than the Panthers by playing on a fast track and not a grass field.
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09-16-18 | Mets +1.5 v. Red Sox | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a marquee pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom versus Chris Sale. There should be an asterisk, though. That's because Sale is going to be on a pitch count and is expected to go three innings at the most. So there is tremendous value getting deGrom especially armed with plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. True, Boston has the best record in baseball with 102 victories. No other team has more than 93 wins. Surprisingly, the Mets have a better record than the Red Sox during the past 14 games going 10-4. Boston is 9-5. So the Mets are playing well and they have who I consider the best pitcher in baseball going. Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola have hit rough patches, so deGrom has a real shot to win the Cy Young Award. He broke a 108-year major league record by allowing three earned runs or fewer in his last 26 starts. You can not get more consistent than that. In his last eight starts, deGrom has held foes to two earned runs or less. He leads the majors with a 1.71 ERA. None of the other qualifers have an ERA under 2.00.
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -116 | 124 h 55 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick had the game of his life in leading the Buccaneers to a stunning road victory against the Saints this past Sunday. Now the Bucs get to host the defending world champions. The spread is short because the Bucs are on a high, at home and the Eagles aren't likely to have Carson Wentz again. The Eagles are worth laying a small road price even with Nick Foles not looking like he did in the Super Bowl. That was a fluke performance. Foles is good enough, however, to help deliver a victory against this porous defense. Fitzpatrick is a career journeyman for many reasons, including his lack of consistency, his propensity for turnovers and not being talented enough to beat a strong defense such as the Eagles. The Eagles are on extra rest and preparation having played last Thursday. They are far better coached and their defense is upper tier while Tampa Bay's defense is bottom tier. The defending Super Bowl champions have the experience and savvy not to lose to this lowly foe. The Buccaneers lack a ground game to fall back on if Fitzpatrick struggles, which I anticipate here.
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09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State +6 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show | |
Those who doubted Herm Edwards in his return to coaching - and college at that - are quiet these days after the Sun Devils reached the top-25 for the first time in four years with a tremendous 16-13 home upset of Michigan State this past Saturday. The Sun Devils played their guts out coming from 10 points behind in the fourth quarter and were rewarded by beating the Spartans at the gun on a field goal. Up next for Arizona State following this game is a huge Pac-12 matchup against Washington. So this is just a terrible spot for the Sun Devils especially going on the road. San Diego State has no such look-ahead. The Aztecs host Eastern Michigan in a non-conference game next Saturday. Early money has come on Arizona State despite its situation because San Diego State won't have senior starting quarterback Christian Chapman. He's more game manager, though, as the Aztecs rely on running back Juwan Washington. He's the third-leading rusher in the nation with 314 yards in two games. This is Edwards' first road game with the Sun Devils. ASU is 6-13 ATS in its past 19 away contests.
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09-15-18 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan -3.5 | 30-25 | Loss | -140 | 80 h 26 m | Show | |
Saskatchewan wasn't playing well early in the season when it got blasted, 40-17, by Ottawa in its first road game of the season. That was back in June. Now it's revenge time for the Roughriders. The Roughriders are playing their best ball winning and covering their last four games. Saskatchewan gives up the third-fewest yards per game in the league. The Redblacks are struggling offensively scoring only a combined 25 points in their last two games against two sub .500 opponents. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris has not looked good. Zach Collaros is expected to play after getting banged-up last week. The Roughriders are 5-0 ATS when he has played.
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09-15-18 | Rockies v. Giants +1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
I don't trust the Rockies on the road especially when there is pressure on them. The Rockies were shut out by Chris Stratton, 2-0, last night and now face Madison Bumgarner. The prideful Bumgarner was rocked by the Rocies in a 9-8 road loss last week giving up six earned runs in five innings. The Giants are playing the string out. But Bumgarner will be up for this game. So should his teammates. Bumgarner has pitched much better at home this season where is 3-2 with a 1.49 ERA. He hasn't allowed a run during his last two AT&T Park starts spanning 14 innings. Rockies starter German Marquez has been pitching well lately, but he's several levels below Bumgarner and has a poor history versus San Francisco with an 0-2 lifetime record and 6.86 ERA. He's made three starts at AT&T Park and has an 8.79 ERA. The Giants have scored only five runs in their last four games so I feel more secure laying juice instead of taking an underdog price with the protection of plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line as I envision another close game here. So does the oddsmaker setting a total of 7.
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09-14-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The Tigers are going with their best pitcher, lefty Matt Boyd, here against Josh Tomlin. Josh Tomlin? Yep the Indians stiff is getting a rare start because Cleveland is gearing up for the playoffs and is on cruise control. The Indians are displaying a real lack of concern about winning this game by trotting Tomlin out to start. Tomlin is 1-5 with a 6.63 ERA. This will be his seventh start. He's 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his first six starts. The Indians booted him out of the rotation way back on May 15. The Tigers beat the Indians, 9-8, during Tomlin's last start on May 15 getting to him for four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. Boyd gave up one run on two hits with 11 strikeouts and one walk in his last start, which came this past Saturday against the Cardinals. Boyd has a 3.05 career ERA versus Cleveland in seven appearances, including six starts. Cleveland is only 19-18 versus southpaws on the season. The Indians have lost seven of the past eight times they've faced a lefty starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Tigers' record would look much better. They would be 9-2 in their last 11 games if plus 1 1/2.
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 54 m | Show |
Forget last season's 0-16 record. The Browns are going to be much improved this season. The oddsmaker has lined their over/under win total at 5 1/2 victories. That should be an indicator right there. The Browns have been itching for this home opener all off-season having had to endure and live with last season's winless year. Talent-wise, the Browns are close to a .500 team. They were done in by a staggering minus 28 turnover ratio, worst in the NFL in 17 years. All but 13 of their 41 turnovers were committed by overmatched rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. Veteran Tyrod Taylor replaces Kizer. Taylor has a winning record as a starting NFL quarterback. Tom Brady is the only starting quarterback who has a lower interception rate than Taylor during the past three years. Taylor has just 20 turnovers during the last three years with Buffalo spanning 43 starts, an average of fewer than seven turnovers per season. By contrast, Cleveland quarterbacks had a combined 34 turnovers in 2017. Cleveland has decent talent with Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Jarvis Landry, Kevin Zeitler, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jabrill Peppers, Denzel Ward, Carlos Hyde and David Njoku. Pittsburgh has a history of playing down to its level of competition especially on the road. The Steelers just nipped a much worse Browns team opening week last year at Cleveland winning, 21-18. The Steelers lost to the Bears in their next road contest. They edged the Colts, who were playing a backup quarterback, by only three points at Indianapolis and defeated the sub .500 Bengals by three points at Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger has a staggering home/road difference. He plays far better at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger has thrown 49 more touchdown passes at home and has 14 more interceptions on the road. Roethlisberger has a new offensive coordinator for the first time in six years with Todd Haley leaving. Guess where Haley went? Cleveland. Haley knows Roethlisberger and the Steelers' tendencies as well as anyone. The Steelers were 25th in yards per rush last season despite having Le'Veon Bell, who could enter the matchup extremely rusty if he has another prolonged holdout like last year. If you discount the Steelers' last road game in which they scored 34 points against the Texans and their backup quarterback, T.J. Yates, Pittsburgh has failed to score more than 21 points in seven of its last nine road games. Taylor has a 23-5 record when his team allows 21 or less points. Note, too, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are 1-5-1 ATS in Week 1 during the past seven years.
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -4.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 40 m | Show | |
Jimmy Garappolo sparked the 49ers to five straight victories to finish last season. But let's be clear here, Garappolo is not some elite quarterback and the 49ers are not a good team. That late season surge has made San Francisco an overrated commodity. Minnesota could have the best roster in the NFC. Certainly the Vikings have the top defense having allowed the fewest points and yards per game last year. The Vikings went 13-3 in 2017. That was having Dalvin Cook for just four games. Cook is back and Minnesota is upgraded at quarterback with Kirk Cousins. The 49ers have some serious defensive flaws. Signing cornerback Richard Sherman doesn't cover up all of their defensive backfield issues. MInnesota won seven of its eight regular season home games by more than a touchdown last season. That's not a surprise since the Vikings have had the best ATS home mark in the NFL since Mike Zimmer became their head coach in 2014. During Zimmer's four years, the Vikings have covered a staggering 67 percent of their regular season games.
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09-09-18 | Bengals +3.5 v. Colts | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 641 h 26 m | Show | |
The Bengals are better than the Colts yet taking more than a field goal. What gives here besides Indy's home field? It's the Andrew Luck factor of course. Sure Luck is a huge upgrade on Jacoby Brissett. But Luck is going to be rusty having not played a down last season. Luck makes the Colts better, but not good enough to seriously contend in what shapes up to be a very good AFC South Division. The Colts have lost and failed to cover in seven of their last eight season-openers. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Cincinnati is an average-type team. They are better defensively than the Colts and have a strong wide receiver matchup edge with A.J. Green. Joe Mixon also gives Cincinnati the best running back. I'm not a huge fan of Marvin Lewis, but I prefer his stablility against the youthful Colts, who are breaking in a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and special teams coach. The Colts could have as many as nine new defensive starters. They are making the switch to a 4-3 defense from a 3-4 and the early returns are not encouraging. Their defense looks like a bottom-four type unit. I like Cincinnati's pass rushers much better than the Colts. I'm also a fan of the Bengals' new defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin. He did a good job with the Lions. Lewis and Austin are respected defensive minds. Much this game is focused on Luck. But the Colts are inferior to the Bengals in the pits. Football Outsiders ranked Indy's offensive line as the worst pass blocking unit in the NFL last season. The Colts aren't going to drastically change that just because they drafted a guard in the first round. |
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
Stanford just isn't Bryce Love. KJ Costello has become a star quarterback and he has one of the best wide receivers in the Pac-12, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The Cardinal rolled past San Diego State, 31-10, last week despite Love rushing for only 29 yards. Costello and Arcega-Whiteside made up for that teaming up for 226 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Costello not only has great skill position weapons, but a strong offensive line. USC can't match that firepower with freshman J.T. Daniels making his first road start. The Trojans just led UNLV by five points in the fourth quarter before pulling away although failing to cover the spread. Stanford was perfect at home last season. The Cardinal also have double revenge from last season. USC coach Clay Helton has a terrible record when taking points. The Trojans are 1-8 SU and ATS since 2015 as underdogs.
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09-08-18 | Ball State +34.5 v. Notre Dame | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Notre Dame easily could overlook Ball State having just won a huge marquee game against Michigan last week. Ball State finished last season with nine straight losses. The Cardinals are underrated, though. Ball State set a school record in piling up 652 yards in a 42-6 victory against Central Connecticut State last Thursday. The Cardinals got huge games from quarterback Riley Neal and running back James Gilbert, both of whom missed the last nine games with injuries last year. They make Ball State a better-than-perceived team. The Cardinals should be more excited about this matchup than Notre Dame. This is the first meeting between the two Indiana-based schools. Ball State also has covered nine of its last 11 games in September.
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09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10 | Top | 56-20 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Troy lost some key people from a year ago, but the Trojans are home in a revenge spot and dangerous in an underdog role. They proved that upsetting LSU as a 20 1/2-point road 'dog last season. The Trojans have won a combined 21 games the past two seasons under Neil Brown. This is a solid program under Brown that has a strong recuriting base. So the talent is there. Boise State figures to struggle initially with its passing game and Troy has a top-notch secondary. Boise State is making a long trip and going into high southern heat.
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09-01-18 | Texas State v. Rutgers -16.5 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Rutgers is going to relish a chance to bury an opponent and built up its confidence. The Scarlet Knights have had the defense. Now they have the makings of a decent offense to accomplish this against an overmatched opponent. Boston College transfer Jon Hilliman leads a good crop of Rutgers running backs that includes talented Raheem Blackshear and Jerome Washington is one of the better tight ends in the country. Freshman quarterback Art Sitowski was an "A" level recruit. How bad is Texas State? The Bobcats have won three games the past two years. Texas State didn't intercept a pass last season and only once in two seasons did its offense produce at least 14 points in non-conference FBS play.
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08-28-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Not only are the Red Sox far, far superior to the Marlins, but there is zero chance of them taking Miami lightly. That's because Boston just suffered its first sweep of the season losing three in a row on the road to Tampa Bay. Now the Red Sox are home and should be re-energized after being idle on Monday. I see this as a kill spot for the Red Sox so am going to lay 1 1/2 runs in order to knock down the high juice as the oddsmaker also envisions this as an easy win for Boston. The Red Sox are 48 games above .500. The Marlins are 19 games below .500. Boston is 39-14 the past 53 times they've met an opponent with a losing record. The Red Sox have beaten their opponent by multiple runs during 10 of their last 11 victories. The Marlins have lost by more than one run in seven of their past eight defeats. The pitching matchup is Jose Urena, who is 4-12 with a 4.50 ERA, against swingman Brian Johnson, who is at his best when starting. Johnson is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 starts. Boston has won eight of those 10 outings. Miami is 3-8 in Urena's past 11 road starts. Urena has pitched slightly worse on the road. He's going to be facing a DH and the top team in the majors in runs, batting average and OPS. The Marlins have nobody anywhere close to the caliber of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez.
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08-24-18 | Lions +3 v. Bucs | Top | 33-30 | Win | 105 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
Being the better team doesn't always matter when it's preseason. Unless that team has motivation, which the Lions do here against the Buccaneers. Detroit is 0-2 and didn't look good in its last game, a 30-17 home loss to the Giants as 3-point favorites last week. The Lions need a victory. So does Matt Patricia, Detroit's first-year head coach. So the Lions are pointing to this game even more than the normal dress rehersal. Not only are the Lions going to play their starters for at least the first half, but they also scouted the Buccaneers. This is something they didn't do for their first two preseason games. Matthew Stafford has looked good in camp. However, he's played only three series - 13 snaps - during preseason so far. He could play into the third quarter in this game. Patricia has made it clear this is the Lions' dress rehersal game and that he won't be playing his starters next week during the Lions' final preseason game. Tampa Bay has nothing to prove. The Buccaneers are 2-0 winning both of their preseason games on the road. Tampa Bay has been horrible at home in preseason going 2-8 SU and ATS the past five years. The Buccaneers have a cluster injury situation in their offensive line. They didn't have four of their top six offensive linemen practice Wednesday. Left tackle Donovan Smith definitely won't play due to a sprained knee. Jameis Winston has played in both preseason games throwing a combined 31 passes. The Bucs might want to limit his snaps here especially since Winston is suspened for the first two games of the regular season.
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08-24-18 | Indians -1.5 v. Royals | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
The Royals are 38-90. The Orioles and them are the worst teams in baseball by far. Cleveland versus Kansas City is an epic mismatch worth laying 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Indians. Cleveland is coming on having shored up its one weak spot, the bullpen. The Indians are 15-6 this month. Kansas City is 5-17 in August, losers of five in a row. The Indians own massive edges against the Royals in every facet, including starting pitching in a matchup of Mike Clevinger versus Brad Keller. Clevinger is better than any Kansas City pitcher yet he's just the No. 4 starter for the powerful Indians. Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four August starts. He is 1-0 versus the Royals this season with a 1.80 ERA. Keller is a better reliever than starter. The Royals average the fewest runs per game in baseball and their bullpen is last in ERA. Cleveland has won 17 of its last 22 road games. The Indians swept the Royals in Kansas City when they visited them last month. The Royals are 18-45 during their last 63 home contests. (Stephen Nover's free Friday Play) White Sox at Tigers Under 9 minus $1.20 First off, we're not talking about two good offenses here. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs scored. They are minus Jose Abreau, who leads them in homers, RBI's and runs. The Tigers are even worse offensively rating 26th in runs. Detroit has its best starter going, Michael Fulmer. He's making his first start since going on the DL July 20 because of an oblique injury. Fulmer looked good in two minor league rehab starts not allowing a run in six innings while striking out 11. Fulmer's fastball was clocked at a season-high 98 mph. The under has cashed in six of Fulmer's last seven big league starts. Fulmer is backed by two good backend relief pitchers, Joe Jimenez and closer Shane Greene, who has 27 saves. Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez has made four starts against the Tigers this season and has a respectable 3.24 ERA against them. The Tigers cobbled a starting lineup against the White Sox on Thursday that had five players batting less than .234. Both the weather forecast and scheduled home plate umpire are strong points for a low-scoring game, too. The wind will be blowing in at 10-12 at Comerica Park, which is a good pitcher's park. Adam Hamari is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 32 of the past 49 times (65%) the last two years when he's been the home plate umpi
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08-23-18 | Edmonton v. Hamilton -2.5 | 24-25 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 52 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are off a bye and catch Edmonton off a 40-24 home win against Montreal this past Saturday night game. The Eskimos are at Calgary for their next game, which is a huge look-ahead spot. Edmonton has failed to cover five of the past six times when going against a sub .500 foe. The Tiger-Cats are better than their record ranking No. 2 in the league in both offense and defensive yards. They have covered seven of their last nine games following a loss.
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08-22-18 | Phillies +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Maybe it was going 2-5 during their last road trip, which concluded this past Sunday. Whatever the reasons, the Nationals have hoisted up the White Flag. They did that by trading Daniel Murphy for a prospect and losing Matt Adams on waivers. The Phillies are superior to Washington. This isn't just opinion. Philadelphia has won five more games than the Nationals and lost six fewer games. They are in second-place by two games in the NL East and are 5 1/2 games ahead of the Nationals. Yet Washington is a huge favorite because of home field and a pitching matchup of Zach Eflin versus Stephen Strasburg. The Phillies would be 14-3 (82%) in Eflin's starts this season if given 1 1/2 runs. So I'm taking the Phillies with some insurance by backing them on the run line. I don't fear Strasburg. This marks his first start in more than a month and just his second appearance since June 8. Strasburg has pitched far worse at home going 2-5 with a 5.21 ERA. Washington is 1-5 in his last six home starts. |
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08-19-18 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
The Padres are giving rookie pitcher Brett Kennedy a third chance. I don't think that's a good idea based on Kennedy's first two big league starts. Those came earlier this month against the Brewers and Angels. The combined results were 11 runs on 20 hits, including four homers, in nine innings giving Kennedy a fat 11.00 ERA. The Diamondbacks have won 23 of their last 34 road games and are going with Zack Grienke. Arizona is 30-10 during Greinke's past 40 starts versus sub .500 opponents. Greinke has dominated the Padres with an 11-2 record and 2.10 ERA in 21 career starts. He held them to one run in seven innings the last time he faced them on July 27. Greinke has a 2.77 daytime ERA this season. The Diamondbacks have won by more than one run in eight of their last nine victories. Getting an extra at bat being the road team is a plus and the Padres have been horrible at Petco Park losing 21 of the past 27 times there.
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08-16-18 | Steelers v. Packers -5.5 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
This isn't just a normal preseason game for the Packers. It's different because Aaron Rodgers is expected to see action. He hasn't played in preseason since 2014. But Mike McCarthy needs to get Rodgers in sync with his many new receivers, including tight end Jimmy Graham. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger is out for the Steelers. He's in concussion protocol. Even if Rodgers plays only one or two series, he's very live to put up points against a vanilla Steelers defense that won't be playing all of their starters. Green Bay holds an edge in backup quarterbacks. The Packers' backup QB's combined for 356 passing yards in a 31-17 home win against the Titans last week. Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer are wagering a spirited battle for the No. 2 spot behind Rodgers. They both received plenty of NFL experience last season in starting roles. Pittsburgh backup quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs have never taken a snap in a real NFL game. Landry Jones, last year's backup, is a stiff and in danger of being cut. The Packers have home-field and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn't have a strong history in preseason. Pittsburgh is 7-15 SU and ATS the past five years during preseason.
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08-11-18 | Montreal v. Ottawa -14 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 9 m | Show | |
Montreal has become a near auto-fade in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes are by far the worst team in the league. Montreal not only doesn't win, it doesn't cover spreads going 5-17 ATS in its past 22 games. I don't see that changing in this matchup versus Ottawa. The Redblacks have a high-powered offense that should overpower Montreal's last-ranked defense, which surrenders 34..6 points a game. The Redblacks are in a kill mood after blowing a 38-14 second-half lead against Toronto last week, losing 42-41. The Redblacks are 5-1 ATS following a loss. They don't figure to letup, which can be a danger when laying a two-touchdown spread. Johnny Manziel had a horrible debut for Montreal last week. He wasn't ready having practiced just four times. The Alouettes were buried, 50-11, by Hamilton. Montreal is bad in all three phases - offense, defense and special teams. The Redblacks have had little trouble with Montreal in the past covering 10 of the past 11 times, including winning and covering the past six meetings.
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08-10-18 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
Even beating Justin Verlander on Thursday night, the Mariners are just 3-8 in their last 11 road games. I see the Astros rebounding strong tonight. So does the oddsmaker making Gerrit Cole a monster favorite against Mike Leake. The Astros should bury the Mariners in this spot so I'm laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to cut down on the heavy juice. Houston has won by two or more runs in nine of its last 11 victories. Cole has established himself as an elite pitcher since coming to the Astros. Houstin is 17-6 in Cole's last 23 starts. Cole has surrendered two or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts. Leake hasn't won since June 23. He has a 4.28 ERA in his last seven starts, which include a 5-2 loss to the Astros on July 31. So this is a quick turnaround for the Astros to face Leake again. Star shortsop Carlos Correa is expected to come off the DL on Friday to play for the Astros, which would be huge since Houston remains without injured second baseman Jose Altuve.
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08-07-18 | Padres v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
I see the Brewers taking care of business at home in a big way against the rebuilding Padres, losers of nine of their last 11 games. Milwaukee has won 11 of its last 16 home games and gotten stronger offensively and in the bullpen at the trade deadline. The Brewers are going with their most consistent starter here, righthander Chase Anderson. He's pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.08 ERA in his last eight starts. Anderson has given up up two or fewer runs in each of his starts during this eight-game span. San Diego is 7-20 the past 27 times going against a righty starter. The Padres also have dropped 17 of their last 25 away matchups. Clayton Richard will be on the hill for San Diego. He has been terrible away from Petco Park with a 6.10 road ERA. Richard is coming off a July in which he was 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA in six starts. The Padres gutted their bullpen at the trade deadline and Richard has only gone at least six innings in one of his last five starts. |
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08-04-18 | Angels v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
The buy sign is back on for Corey Kluber, who was dealing with a right knee injury going into All-Star break. Kluber was shaky in his first outing following the All-Star Game, but returned to his dominant ways during his last start holding the Tigers to one run in 7 1/3 innings this past Sunday. The oddsmaker is sold on Kluber being back healthy with a huge price. So the way to go around this is taking the Indians minus 1 1/2 on the run line. Cleveland's past six victories have all been by at least two runs. Kluber will catch a break if superstar Mike Trout has to sit out a third straight game because of a bruised right wrist. The Angels are going with rookie Felix Pena. He was bombed during his last start giving up seven earned runs while retiring only one batter against Seattle this past Sunday. The Angels have lost in 20 of their last 28 road games. The Indians are 65-31 in their last 96 home games.
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07-31-18 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 120 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
I see this as a kill spot for the Diamondbacks so I'm fine laying 1 1/2 runs with them. Texas has a little win streak going, but the Rangers aren't going to keep that up. They are pitching Bartolo Colon and their shaky bullpen just got much worse with closer Keone Kela traded to the Pirates. Kela was by far their best relief pitcher. The Rangers' focus may not all be there with this being the final day of the trade deadline. Texas also returns home after this game. Colon is an ageless wonder being 45 and fat. However, he's hitting the wall with a 5.96 ERA in his last four starts. The Diamondbacks have Zack Godley going. He pitches much better at Chase Field. Godley usually gets solid run support, too. He's among the wins leaders with 11. Arizona fortified its lineup trding for Eduardo Escobar and with Steven Souza Jr. getting healthy.
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07-27-18 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
Yovani Gallardo was a high strikeout solid pitcher for the Brewers during his prime. However, Gallardo is well past his prime now, barely hanging on. The Rangers are the sixth team he is pitching for in the last five years. Gallardo had a 5.42 ERA in 2016. His ERA was 5.72 last year and it is 7.18 this season. The pattern clearly is there. Father time has caught up with him. The Rangers can't bail Gallardo out with their terrible bullpen either. Houston ranks in the top five in runs and batting average. The Astros have a hot Dallas Keuchel going for them, too. Keuchel is 4-0 with a 1.30 ERA in his last four starts spanning 27 2/3 innings. He is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA during his last seven starts. Houston has dominated at home with Keuchel going 40-18 during his last 58 starts at Minute Maid Park.
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07-26-18 | Edmonton -8 v. Montreal | 44-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
It was a distracting week in Montreal for Alouettes. They made a monster deal trading for Johnny Manziel. The Alouettes are desperate having lost 15 of their last 16 games while going 2-14 ATS. Manziel won't start this week, though. Vernon Adams Jr. will. He already will be Montreal's fourth quarterback. Adams has failed to distinguish himself in three CFL seasons. Manziel's time is soon. Look for the rested Eskimos to crush the Alouettes whomever Montreal plays behind center. The Alouettes are averaging a league-low 13.8 points per game. Their defense can't sustain such a putrid offense ranking last in scoring defense and third-from-the-bottom in yards. Edmonton has the skill position talent to take advantage with Mike Reilly, Duke Williams and Derel Walker. Reilly has thrown nine TD passes, second-most in the league. The Eskimos have yet to play a complete game. They are due. They were idle last week and won't be taking the Alouettes lightly knowing they are two games behind Calgary in the West Division.
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07-20-18 | BC v. Ottawa -7 | 25-29 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 33 m | Show | |
Take away Calgary and Ottawa would be unbeaten this season. The Redblacks' only defeats have come to the unbeaten Stampeders, who are far-and-away the best team in the CFL this season. Ottawa should be fully focused for this home matchup. The Redblacks' next two games are on the road. Ottawa catches BC in a letdown spot. Ottawa is 5-0 ATS off a loss. The Lions could still be celebrating their improbable 20-17 home victory against Winnipeg this past Saturday. BC trailed 17-0 in the second half, but pulled the game out. Winnipeg committed five turnovers in the game. BC quarterback Travis Lulay made his first start since undergoing ACL surgery last September. Lulay was gallant in the victory, but he still might not be 100 percent healthy and he is past his prime. BC has failed to cover in seven of its past eight road games. They are 0-2 in away matchups this season giving up 41 points to Edmonton in a 19-point loss and 41 points to Winnipeg in a 22-point loss. The Lions also will be without all-star linebacker Solomon Elimimian, who is out with a hand/wrist injury. |
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07-12-18 | Calgary v. Ottawa +3.5 | 27-3 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
The CFL's two best defenses are pitted here. It's short revenge for Ottawa. The Redblacks suffered their lone loss of the season, 24-14, to Calgary two weeks ago. Calgary has been relying on takeaways. Stampeders QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing barely 60 percent of his throws. That's not impressive especially in the pass-happy CFL. The Redblacks have the league's top rusher in William Powell. Ottawa's defense gives up fewer than 20 points a game. Calgary has failed to beat Ottawa the past three times when not playing at home. The Redblacks and Stampeders tied in Ottawa last season and they also had a tie when they played in Ottawa two years ago. The teams also met at a neural site, Toronto, for the Grey Cup championship in 2016 and the Redblacks won that game in overtime. So getting points with the home 'dog looms large here.
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07-12-18 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Playing at home during the day is a great combination for Charlie Morton. He's really only had two bad outings in 18 starts this season. But Morton has especially shined at home where he is 8-1 with a 2.66 ERA and in day games where he is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA. That's the situation he finds himself in on Thursday. Morton is in good form, too, with a 2.87 ERA in his last five starts. He has 45 strikeouts during this time frame in 31 1/3 innings. Trevor Cahill, a journeyman type, comes off the DL for his first start in a month to pitch for Oakland. He's been at his worst on the road with an 0-2 away mark and 5.66 ERA. I like this spot a lot for the Astros coming off a rare home defeat to the A's. Houston has won 49 of its last 70 home games for 70 percent.
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07-10-18 | Reds v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I want the Indians going for me after they lost at home to the Reds last night. Since last year's All-Star Game, the Indians have compiled the best home record in the majors at 56-24. The Reds have been playing better but they are far below the Indians and draw Trevor Bauer here. Bauer is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA at Progressive Field this season. He has a 2.05 ERA in his last 10 overall starts with 99 strikeouts in 70 1/3 innings during this span. Cincinnati's Sal Romano and the Reds' overworked bullpen can't match that. Romano has a 5.40 ERA on the year. He did beat the White Sox during his last start this past Wednesday, but still gave up four runs on six hits in five innings.
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07-07-18 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Royals | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
The key isn't if the Red Sox will beat the Royals. They most likely will. The key is getting away from laying heavy juice and making the Red Sox work on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. That should work, too. The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 12 victories by more than one run. This includes winning their last three games by an average of five runs. The Royals have lost seven in a row. David Price should have no problem handling them. Kansas City ranks last in runs and homers. Price is 4-0 career-wise versus Kansas City with a 2.13 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 1.56 in three appearances at Kauffman Stadium. Rookie Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals. He has an excellent 2.09 ERA pitching mostly out of the bullpen. But I'm not sold on him based in part on some of his metrics. I have him due for serious regression. Keller is facing the No. 1 scoring team in the majors here.
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07-04-18 | Pirates v. Dodgers -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a give-up spot in a give-up season for the Pirates. The Dodgers are averaging more than 10 runs per game during their last three games. The Pirates are short on starters and their bullpen is spent. So the Pirates are going with Clay Holmes. He's thrown all of two innings for the Pirates this season. This will be his first start. He hasn't pitched in 10 days and isn't expected to go deep into the game leaving the Pirates' wretched middle relief to try to stem the tide while in serious fatigue mode. Rich Hill is capable of elite starts - when he's healthy. Hill is healthy now, at least for the time being. He has a 2.55 ERA in three starts since coming off the DL. |
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07-03-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Look for the Astros to come out fired-up in this kill spot. Houston has lost three in a row. The Astros were ilde on Monday so they will be rested and ready here. Houston has won 26 of its last 36 away matchups and is 10-4 versus the Rangers this season. Dallas Keuchel goes for Houston. He has better peripherals than his 4.22 ERA shows. He ranks first in the American League in groundball-to-fly ball ratio - a key when pitching at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park - and ranks third in the AL in soft contact percentage. Long-time minor leaguer Austin Bibens-Dirkx is going for the Rangers. I don't see the 33-year-old Bibens-Dirkx faring well against an Astros lineup that has the third-highest batting average in the majors and ranks in the top-seven in runs and homers.
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06-28-18 | Ottawa +8 v. Calgary | 14-24 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a horrendous spot for Calgary. The Stampeders just played a great game against Toronto this past Saturday and now have to play again on Thursday. They were able to hold just one practice this week and that practice didn't go well, according to reports. Ottawa played Calgary twice last season, both early in the season. The Redblacks tied the Stampeders, 31-31, at home and lost 43-39 at Calgary. The Redblacks are 4-1 in their last five games, including winning impressively in their opening game this season against the Roughriders, 40-17. The Redblacks have covered 20 of their last 26 road games. Calgary often is overpriced, which is the case here. The Stampeders have failed to cover in six of their last seven games.
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06-26-18 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for the Astros after they lost to the Blue Jays with Justin Verlander on the hill Monday. Houston has won eight of its last 10 victories by more than one run. Charlie Morton has become a very good pitcher since joining Houston. He's 9-1 with a 2.74 ERA this season. He owns a 2.77 ERA in two starts versus Toronto this season. The Blue Jays have still lost 10 of their last 14 road games despite last night's stunning win. This could be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays if not a give-up game. They are giving Ryan Borucki his first big league start due to injuries to Aaron Sanchez and Jaime Garica. The Blue Jays' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and is minus suspended closer Roberto Osuna.
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06-23-18 | Tigers v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
The American League is composed of four super powers. Three of those teams are the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. The Indians are the fourth and they finally are getting into gear winning five in a row. The Indians have won their last five games by an average of 6.3 runs. They've have won their last 10 games by more than one run. So I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs with them at greatly reduced juice in a pitching matchup of Francisco Liriano versus Trevor Bauer. The Tigers have been overacheiving, but they are starting to reach their normal regression. Detroit just doesn't have the pitching and its bottom-eight offense took a big hit with Miguel Cabrera suffering a season-ending biceps injury. Liriano hasn't pitched in four weeks because of a hamstring injury. He's winless in his last five starts. He gave up five runs on six hits, including three homers, and three walks in five innings against the White Sox during his previous start on May 26. This is the Indians' third look already at Liriano, who has a 6.10 ERA versus Clevelnd this year. Bauer entered the majors with a high ceiling and he's living up to it now with a 2.50 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings. He's backed by a rested Cleveland bullpen. Cleveland has dominated Detroit going 35-13 against the Tigers during the last three years, including 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
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06-22-18 | Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
Hamilton has become a much better team since June Jones took over. The Tiger-Cats nearly pulled the upset against Calgary last week, but Jeremiah Masoli threw a late interception and Calgary scored a touchdown while running out the clock resulting in a misleading 28-14 final. The Tiger-Cats have covered the past five times following a loss. They've also enjoyed excellent ATS success in Edmonton covering the past five times there. Edmonton had to scramble to nip Winnipeg last week, 33-30. Edmonton was the only CFL road winner during Week 1. The Eskimos host unbeaten BC next week so this is a bit of an early season sandwich spot for them. The Eskimos have failed to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games. The Eskimos showed some defensive vulnerability in beating the Blue Bombers. This series has been close with each of the last six head-to-head matchups being decided by a touchdown or less. |
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06-20-18 | Rays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The Rays halted the Astros' 12-game win streak Tuesday night nipping them, 2-1. That was just the Rays' second road victory in their past 11 tries. Following this game, the Rays head home after being on the road for a week. They are idle Thursday and host the Yankees in a marquee series beginning Friday. So this isn't a great spot for the Rays. The defending world champion Astros should bounce back strong here in a pitching matchup of righthanders Nathan Eovaldi versus Charlie Morton. Houston is 50-19 in its last 69 games against righty starters. I think it's a kill spot for the vastly superior Astros so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 runs to greatly reduce the vigorish. Eovaldi will be making his fifth start since returning from a second Tommy John surgery. Eovaldi has flashed during his career, but he's still very much on the recovery trail. I don't see him ready to deal with an elite offense. Eovaldi faced the Yankees in his last start and surrendered five runs on eight hits in 7 1/3 innings. The Astros have the highest batting average in the majors and are No. 2 in runs. The Rays rank 25th in runs. Morton has thrived since joining the Astros. He's 8-1 with a 2.94 ERA this season. The Rays have struck out 10 or more times during each of their last six games. |
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06-16-18 | Montreal v. BC -7.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 40 m | Show | |
BC went 7-11 last season. The Lions look improved entering this season having upgraded in the trenches. New quarterback coach Jarious Jackson appears to be a good fit for Jonathon Jennings. Montreal was the worst team in the CFL last year. The Alouettes not only went 3-15, but failed to win or cover any of their last 11 agmes. They remain the worst team in the CFL and I don't see them cutting the gap enough to cover this spread. I'm not a fan of Montreal's new coach, Mike Sherman. The Alouettes looked just as bad in training camp and in their two preseason games as they did last season. Their putrid offense managed just one touchdown and three field goals in exhibition play. They don't have the playmakers and skill position depth to put up enough points to hang around. So look for the Lions to win and cover for the sixth straight time in this series. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
You can talk zig-zag and the Cavaliers going all out to salvage at least one game. But this series is a foregone conclusion - and the Cavaliers know it. None of the other 131 teams in NBA history who have fallen behind 3-0 in a playoff series have come back to win. Neither will Cleveland. LeBron James trying to battle four stars - two of whom are superstars - isn't a fair fight. Golden State's talent is so above Cleveland's that the Warriors don't even have to be fully motivated to cover this spread. Golden State proved that in a 110-102 road victory in Game 3 this past Wednesday. The Warriors won and covered despite Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combining to score only 21 points while missing a combined 20 of 27 shots from the floor. It didn't matter because of other reaons such as Kevin Durant being so good, Golden State's better bench and holding a coaching edge. The Cavaliers weren't able to beat the Warriors last year when they had Kyrie Irving and were much better. Durant is a major reason. Golden State is 7-1 against Cleveland in the playoffs since Durant became part of the Warriors. Cleveland lacks the defense, coaching and role players to hang close to Golden State. J.R. Smith has been so brutal that he could get MVP votes - for Golden State. Kyle Korver is just a rumor. No, the Cavaliers don't have it. James can't put forth anymore than what he's doing while the Warriors are capable of better. Even if they aren't, they still hold enough edges to cover.
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06-08-18 | Astros v. Rangers +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Judging by the starting pitching matchup of Justin Verlander versus Doug Fister this game is a huge mismatch. Certainly it's priced that way. But I see enough below-the-radar edges to back the Rangers at plus 1 1/2 runs. Verlander is a monster. Certainly this is not a fade on him. But veteran Doug Fister has pitched better than expected for the most part. He'll be helped by a 10-12 mph wind blowing in. Fister has a respectable 3.18 ERA in two starts against the Astros this season and 3.34 ERA in five career starts.versus Houston. The Rangers' bullpen has been outperforming the Astros bullpen by a large margin during the last two weeks with a 0.89 ERA compared to Houston's 4.32 ERA during this span. Houston has a losing record during its past 12 games in part because of its bullpen failures. The Rangers are 10-6 in their last 16 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. The Rangers also have won Game 2 during their past seven series. The Astros aren't likely to have one of their best players either as shortstop Carlos Correa has an upper body injury. Free Friday Play Braves plus $1.66 at Dodgers The surprising Braves have a better offense than the Dodgers, are 10 games above .500 compared to LA's .500 record and drawing a rookie pitcher. Yet the Dodgers are a monster favorite here. I'm not buying this especially considering the situational aspects of this game. LA concluded a six-game road trip with an 8-7 victory against the Pirates yesterday. The Dodgers' bullpen is heavily taxed having pitched 14 1/3 innings he past two days. LA is in a fat and happy mood having won five of six during its road trip. While the Dodgers face the distraction of returning home without rest after being gone a week while playing in two different time zones, the Braves were idle on Thursday. They've been in Southern California since Monday. Atlanta is 20-14 on the road. The Dodgers are 14-17 at home. Braves starter Brandon McCarthy won't lack motivation pitching against his former team having played for the Dodgers from 2015-17. The 34-year-old McCarthy certainly brings an experience level Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler lacks. McCarthy has held foes to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts. Buehler is a highly-rated prospect. So far he's living up to his hype with a 2.74 ERA in his first 46 innings. Buehler, though, figures to have ups and downs as the league gets more film and first-hand information about him. Atlanta leads the National League in runs and OPS. The Braves have the fourth-highest batting average, too, in the majors. The Dodgers' offense hasn't been able to match that. LA ranks 18th in batting average.
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06-06-18 | Marlins v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Not only do the Marlins have the worst record in the National League, but their losses usually aren't close either. They have lost by more than one run in nine of their last 11 losses. St. Louis is poised to make a move with Yadier Molina back from the DL and Marcell Ozuna heating up. The Cardinals fell as big favorites to the Marlins on Tuesday in the first game of this series. I don't see a repeat of that happening. Neither does the oddsmaker with this huge of a price. This game shapes up as a kill spot for the Cardinals so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 runs and get a plus price rather than have to risk heavy juice.
Miami had lost six in a row until last night. They last time the Marlins won back-to-back games was May 22-23 versus the Mets. The Marlins are starting lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who is coming off a serious injury and trying to round into form. He has a 6.10 ERA and doesn't go deep into games. The Marlins have a very weak bullpen. I like Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty, who is displaying a lot of promise with a 2.62 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings. The Cardinals have won 62 percent of their games this season against lefty starters. |
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05-31-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Drew Pomeranz isn't in great form. But the Red Sox are way undervalued her. They are so undervalued that I can still get a bargain on them at plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball at 39-17. They would be 23-7 in their last 30 games if given 1 1/2 runs. The Astros aren't playing well going 1-4 in their last five games. This also marks Houston's first game back from a seven-game road trip, which isn't a good situational spot. Lance McCullers has a 6.16 ERA in four career starts versus the Red Sox. Pormeranz has a 3.69 lifetime ERA against Houston in 12 appearances.
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05-26-18 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
The Dodgers have started to play better, but they are four games below .500. This is because they are just 12-20 against righthanded starters, including 1-7 during their past eight home games against a righy starter. I believe Jordan Lyles can hang with Alex Wood especially with the Padres taking 1 1/2 runs in a game projected to have fewer than eight runs scored. Lyles has posted a 2.50 ERA in three starts this season. San Diego is 2-0 during his last two starts. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Padres would be 13-6 in their last 19 games. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | 99-109 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
I understand the home team has won and covered each of the five games so far in this series. But I've believed the Celtics are the better team all along and I'm not going to turn away from them getting this many points. Boston snatched momemtum away from Cleveland winning, 96-83, at home two days ago. The Celtics have the fresher legs being the younger team and are far better coached. So the deeper this series goes the better for Boston. The Celtics beat the Cavaliers by 13 points in Game 5 despite shooting only 36 percent from the floor. Boston won because of outstanding adjustments made by Brad Stevens, one of which was going with a bigger lineup. This resulted in Boston outrebounding Cleveland, 45-39. I don't believe Tyrunn Lue is capable of countering Stevens. The Celtics were a good road team during the regular season. They've had two games now to figure out how to play in Cleveland. They don't have the best player on the court. That's LeBron James of course. But they play better team basketball and James is starting to display signs of fatigue. I'm taking the Celtics here anticipating James will play his normal "A" game. If he doesn't, though, it's an added bonus.
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
Wrong opening favorite. I don't care that the Cavaliers have won and covered the past two games in convincing fashion. Those games were in Cleveland. This one is in Boston where the Celtics are 13-1 SU and ATS in its last 14 games at TD Garden. The Celtics are a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs. Cleveland has a losing road mark in the postseason. This includes two losses at Boston earlier in the series by an average of 19 points. Boston has been tough at home all season on a 75 percent covering run during its last 24 home contests. The Celtics have a lot of youthful talent who play more relaxed and under control at TD Garden. The Celtics also figure to get a better break from the officials than they did these past two games in Cleveland. LeBron James has been great as usual in the series, but I don't trust Cleveland's role players especially on the road. Kevin Love is showing signs of fatigue. He may not be 100 percent and J.R. Smith is 8-for-33 shooting from the floor for 24.2 percent. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Are the Warriors really better than the Rockets? I'll take nearly double-digits to find out. This line is inflated based on the Warriors' dominant 126-85 burial of the Rockets this past Sunday. Houston has now lost four times in the postseason after finishing with the best record in the NBA during the regular season at 65-17. The Rockets are 3-0 winning by an average of 20.7 points in each of their next games following a playoff loss. There's more. The Rockets have won 79.5 percent of their games when playing on one day's rest, averaging 115.5 points. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times on the road when playing an opponent with a winning home mark. Golden State, by contrast, is 4-15 ATS the last 19 times playing on one day's rest. The Warriors also have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a straight-up victory. It wouldn't be surprising if the Warriors are a tad bit complacent and overconfident following their dominant performance. Golden State may not have Andre Iguodala either. He's questionable with a bruised knee. Iguodala is an outstanding two-way player, who I consider the Warriors' top role player.
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
I look for the Celtics to come back strong after getting trounced, 116-86, by the Cavaliers in Game 3 this past Saturday. Boston has won and covered each of the past three times it has lost. The Celtics ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency this season. They are the better defensive team and the better coached team. LeBron James is great. But the rest of the Cavaliers played way over their heads as Cleveland shot 17-of-34 from 3-point range and made 25 of 30 free throws in their Game 3 blowout. Cleveland still is terrible as a home favorite especially in this price range covering just 26 percent the past 31 times when laying 5 1/2 or more points. The Cavaliers are 22-50 ATS when favored this season, including 2-5 in the postseason. Brad Stevens will make the proper adjustments and the Celtics will come out fired-up after being embarrassed. James is the best player, but the Celtics are the better team. I'll take team over individual.
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
Cleveland is in must-win mode down 0-2 in this Eastern Conference final. The problem for the Cavaliers is that aside from LeBron James, they aren't championship caliber. After James, the Celtics have the three best players in Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford. The Celtics also have a monster coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Tyronn Lue. This edge is magnified by the teams having not played since Tuesday. Boston has covered six of the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. James couldn't have played better than he did during Tuesday's Game 2 scoring 42 points, pulling down 10 rebounds and dishing off 12 assists. Still, the Cavaliers lost by 13 points. James had an off-game in Game 1 and the Cavaliers lost by 25 points. The oddsmaker isn't buying the Celtics' domination, though, making the Cavaliers a mid-sized favorte. Some of this thought process entails Cleveland playing harder, smarter and employing better defense. I do believe the Cavaliers will produce an "A" level effort. I think it's a leap of faith, though, to believe Lue can coach against Stevens and a knucklehead like J.R. Smith can come through. The line also is skewed high in Cleveland's favor because the Cavaliers are home now. Boston is 1-4 on the road in the playoffs. The Celtics are playing at a high level. They are not superstar-dependent like the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are going against a well-coach opponent that is playing excellent team basketball. I don't see the Celtics being intimidated, or rolling over, just because of a venue shift. The Celtics have, after all, covered 67 percent of their last 55 road contests. They are 4-0-1 ATS during their past five visits to Cleveland. Cleveland has proven bad at home and as a favorite. The Cavaliers have covered just 30 percent of their last 51 games at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is 4-10 ATS in its 14 overall games and has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when laying points.
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05-16-18 | Indians -1.5 v. Tigers | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Trevor Bauer has had six quality outings in his last seven starts. I regard him as a "B" level pitcher. He's facing a Tigers lineup that is missing three regulars - Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario and Leonys Martin. Detroit's lineup wasn't potent even before these injuries. Bauer holds a monster edge on Detroit's Ryan Carpenter, who will be making just his second big league start. Carpenter has a 7.36 ERA in the majors. He was 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA with Toledo in the minors. The Tigers aren't likely to have closer Shane Greene either. Greene has pitched the past four days. But that shouldn't even matter as I see this as a kill spot for the Indians.
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05-11-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The Reds can hope. But their hopes are going to be in vain if they expect Matt Harvey to resmeble anything like his All-Star form of 2013 before multiple injuries, including Tommy John surgery, derailed his effectiveness. Harvey is 9-19 during the past three seasons with ERA's of 4.86, 6.70 last season and 7.00 in four starts this season. He's surrendered six homers in 27 innings this year and hasn't pitched in eight days. So I'm certainly not expecting much from Harvey. Neither should the Reds. Harvey is likely to be rusty. So this could mean an early call for the Cincinnati bullpen, which isn't very good except for closer Raisel Iglesias and he carries a high fatigue rating having pitching 3 1/3 innings the past two days throwing 42 pitches. The Dodgers have been underachieving. They are due and they aren't going to lack motivation after losing 4-1 to the Reds last night. The Reds have the worst record in the National League at 11-27. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is far more effective pitching at home where his ERA is 1.98 this season.
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
The 76ers have some outstanding young talent. But they don't have the savvy, experience and coaching to beat the Celtics on the road. Boston leads this series 3-1 by defeating the 76ers by 16 and five points, respectively, at home along with an overtime road win in Game 3. The 76ers staved off elimination by downing the Celtics, 103-92, at home in Game 4 two days ago. The 76ers were sparked by T.J. McConnel, who scored a career-high 19 points after being inserted into the starting lineup. The 76ers were the more motivated and physical team. They also dominated in the paint. I don't see any of these factors standing up again with the teams returning to Boston. Brad Stevens is the sharpest coach in the Eastern Conference, if not all of basketball. He'll have a solid game plan and he has the brains to get the best of 76ers coach Brett Brown with in-game adjustments. The Celtics have proven they can win without Kyrie Irving. They have won and covered 11 of their last 12 home games. The Celtics have a top-three defense. The 76ers' defense is underrated, but it is not as good on the road. Philadelphia has given up an average of 109.3 points during its past six away matchups.
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
I don't see Dwane Casey letting the Raptors quit here. Yes, Toronto is down 3-0 in the series. No NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a playoff series. But this has been a very competitive series. The Raptors lost by one point in overtime in Game 1 despite never trailing during regulation. Toronto lost by two points in Game 3 at Cleveland when LeBron James hit a basket at the buzzer. The Raptors made only 38 percent of their uncontested shots from the floor during those two defeats. So the looks are there. DeMar DeRozan is due to step up. Even if he doesn't, though, Kyle Lowery is playing well averaging 22 points and eights assists in the series while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. The Raptors have a strong bench. James is playing at a superhuman level. However, he's not getting much help from his teammates. It's been that way during the playoffs and regular season for Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been overpiced all season due to James. That hasn't changed here. Cleveland has covered only 28 percent of the time during the past 53 instances when laying three or more points. They are 0-7 ATS the last seven times as home favorites. |
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05-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Jazz | Top | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
There's too big of a class difference. Pure and simple. Can the Jazz cover this number? Sure - if they shoot 60 percent from 3-point range, the Rockets are uninspired and some unheralded guy like Joe Ingles has the game of his life. But none of that is likely to happen again like it did in Game 2. What has transpired is Houston is 6-1 ATS this season versus Utah. The Rockets have whipped the Jazz by 21, 11 and 11 points in their three games at Salt Lake City. The Rockets were motivated and on their game this past Friday - unlike in Game 2 - building a 30-point advantage in cruising to a 113-92 win. Nothing has changed. The Rockets have far too many weapons. James Harden is unstoppable. Chris Paul still is a superstar. Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and underrated Clint Capela give the Rockets far more weapons than the Jazz. Utah is heavily reliant upon rookie Donovan Mitchell especially with Ricky Rubio out. Mitchell missed 12 of 16 shots from the floor in Game 3 perhaps feeling the strain of being so heavily counted on. Now there's a chance the Jazz could be without their second-best frontcourt player as Derrick Favors is dealing with a sprained ankle. The Rockets very well could be the best team in basketball. It's not a good matchup for the Jazz, whose defensive strength is inside with rim protector Rudy Gobert not defending against 3-point shooters. Utah ranked 17th in defensive 3-point percentage. The Rockets already have 20 more free throw attempts than Utah and set an NBA record for most 3-point shots attempted.
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05-06-18 | Bruins v. Lightning -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 178 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
I don't see the Bruins rallying from a 3-1 series deficit. I don't see them beating the Lightning in Tampa. So I'd rather go for the big payoff by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line instead of laying heavy juice on the money line. Boston surprised Tampa Bay by upsetting the Lightning on the road in Game 1. That served as a wake-up call for the Lightning. They've won the past three games since then outscoring the Burins by a combined 12-6 goals. The Bruins have lost in seven of their last nine away matchups. Tampa Bay has won 73 percent of its last 51 home contests. The Lightning's last six home victories all have been by more than one goal. Boston's task is made more difficult having lost defeseman Torey Krug for the series. He suffered an ankle injury in the last game. Not only is Krug huge defensively, but he was part of the Bruins' power-play unit. The Bruins' strength had been their power-play. They haven't scored an even-strength goal during the past two games. The Bruins have given up the first goal in each of the last three games. That's likely to prove fatal again. If the Bruins happen to be trailing by just one goal with several minutes left, it's likely they would pull their goalie giving the Lightning extra opportunities to score an open net goal and thus win by multiple goals.
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
It doesn't matter that the Raptors entered the playoffs with the best record in the Eastern Conference and were the lone NBA team to rank in the top-five both offensively and defensively. All that matters now is the Raptors are in do-or-die mode down 0-2 in this series and on the road. But should it matter? I think it should count for something. True, the Raptors have yet to prove they can win in Cleveland. Toronto, though, has improved each season. The Raptors are to the point where they can legitimately win the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The talent and coaching are there. So I'm going to back them here. The Cavaliers are in danger of a letdown after winning the first two games of this series on the road, including stealing Game 1. There shouldn't be any doubt about the Raptors' intensity for this matchup. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery are star players. They're due to play more consistent. Certainly Serge Ibaka is due to play much, much better. He isn't the player he once was, but I don't believe he's washed up either. Dwane Casey rates a major coaching edge on Tyronn Lue. I'm confident Casey will get the most from his team in this game and make proper adjustments. He has the talent and bench to do this. People would be looking at this series different if the Raptors had at least split at home. They never trailed during regulation in the opening game of this series yet lost by one point in overtime. Then James had a monster performance in Game 2 with 43 points. Kevin Love played well, too. Toronto got mentally down. It's hard to believe even James can top his great Game 2 performance and Love can't be trusted to play well. The Raptors can't afford to get down here - and they know it. Cleveland is not a dominant home team. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last six games at Quicken Loans Arena. They have either lost, or won by fewer than five points during these past six home games.
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05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Do you believe in the Jazz? I don't. Not against the Rockets. Oh, Houston, at least has to show up. It can't just take the fesity Jazz for granted. That's something the Rockets did early in their Game 2 matchup against Utah. Houston couldn't recover from falling 19 points down during a flat performance and lost, 116-108. Utah also shot 60 percent from 3-point range making 15 of 25 shots from beyond the arc. Now the series shifts to Salt Lake City - and the spread becomes much shorter. I see the Rockets regaining their intensity. The alarm clock has sounded. It's wake-up time. That's enough to cover this number because Houston is a much better team. The Rockets had covered the past five games against the Jazz until the last matchup. Houston is 2-0 at Utah this season winning those games by an average of 11 points. The Jazz aren't hitting 60 percent of their 3-point shots again. They ranked 12th during the regular season in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.6 percent. The Rockets set a record for most 3-point shots taken during the season. The Rockets were above average in 3-point shooting percentage and ranked seventh in 3-point defense while the Jazz are 17th in 3-point percentage defense. Look for things to get back to normal with the Rockets winning and covering this Game 3.
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05-01-18 | White Sox v. Cardinals -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
The White Sox are dreadful with an 8-18 record and minus 42-run differential. I don't understand why James Shields is part of the White Sox's starting rotation. Shields is an over-the-hill innings-eater who I regard as one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He had a 5.23 ERA last year and is even worse this year with a 6.14 ERA. Chicago has lost in 14 of Shields' past 19 road starts. Chicago is 1-4 in Shields' five starts this season giving up 35 runs in those four defeats. The Cardinals have won six of their last eight home games. The White Sox have dropped 11 of their last 13 interleague road matchups. MIchael Wacha is two levels higher than Shields. So I have no problem laying 1 1/2 runs in order to reduce the high juice associated with fading Shields.
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04-29-18 | Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Maybe it's preordained that the Cavaliers and LeBron James win this Game 7 being at home. But I certainly have to take these points to find that out. It has been obvious all season, even with turning the roster over at the trade deadline, that aside from James the Cavaliers have problems. They just aren't that good especially when laying points. Only twice in their last 13 games have the Cavaliers defeated a foe by six or more points. The Pacers have outscored the Cavaliers by 50 points in this series. The Pacers went 3-1 during the regular season against the Cavaliers. Cleveland's three victories in this series have been by an average of 3.3 points. The Cavaliers haven't defeated the Pacers by more than four points during the series. Maybe the pressure gets to the Pacers. But I don't see it. The Cavaliers are a one-man team. James is getting no help. Kevin Love, bothered by a thumb injury, is shooting 32.4 percent in the series He's more a liability than a help. James and Love are the only Cleveland players even averaging double figures in the series for Cleveland. Indiana has been underrated all season. Victor Oladipo has become a legitimate star. Myles Turner gives Indiana the best big man. The Pacers hold a bench edge. Domantas Sabonis has been stepping up big. He's on fire making 26 of 35 field goals during the last three games. Lance Stephenson is an annual hindrance to James. Again, this isn't some dominant Cavaliers team. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games. They aren't a strong home team either covering just 30 percent of their last 54 home games. The Pacers have proven themselves against this caliber of opponent going 9-1 ATS the past 10 times on the road when meeting a foe with a winning percentage greater than .600. Indiana also has covered in seven of their last eight visits to Quicken Loans Arena.
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04-28-18 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Coming off an embarrassing 8-1 home loss to the A's and sizzling Sean Manaea on Friday, the Astros should get back on track in a big way facing Daniel Mengden. The Astros' last seven victories all have been by at least three runs. Mengden was drafted by the Astros four years ago and then traded to Oakland. He's yet to find success with the A's. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in four career starts versus Houston. The A's bullpen is down injured setup man Ryan Buchter. Houston has won 40 of its last 57 (70%) homes when going against a right-handed starter. The Astros have the superior starter, Lance McCullers, and bullpen going here. McCullers pitches much better at Minute Maid Park. This is just his second home start of the season. He gave up two earned runs in five innings to the Padres in his first home start this year. McCullers was 4-0 with a 3.04 home ERA last year compared to 3-4 with a 5.14 road ERA. Two years ago, McCullers was 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA pitching at Minute Maid Park while going 1-2 on the road with a 5.57 ERA. So the pattern clearly is established that McCullers is a much better home park pitcher.
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04-27-18 | Raptors +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm always attracted to taking the better team when they are getting points. That's the case with this opening number. It's close to a double-digit difference from the last game two days ago when the Raptors were seven-point home favorites. True, the Raptors have yet to win in Washington having gone 0-2 against the Wizards on the road during this series. But I don't see them losing three consecutive away playoff matchups to the Wizards. I like the adjustments Raptors coach Dwane Casey made in Game 5 when the Raptors whipped the Wizards by 10 points. Slow down the Wizards in transition and you'll likely win. The Raptors can do this. The Wizards need big scoring games from Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. to complement John Wall. Porter, however, may not play because of a leg injury. His shooting has been off because of the injury. I trust Casey, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowery and Serge Ibaka more than Scott Brooks, Wall and Co.
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Take away Kyrie Irving and the Bucks have more talent than Boston. So this series has been about the Bucks' superior talent level versus the huge coaching mismatch between Brad Stevens and interim coach Joe Prunty. There has been a classic zig-zag feel to the series, too, with each team winning at home through the first five games. Now it's Milwaukee's turn to hold serve. The Bucks defeated the Celtics by 24 points in Game 3 at home and led by 20 points at home in Game 4 before only winning by two. So the Bucks definitely are capable of covering this number versus this opponent. Minus Irving, the Celtics take a backseat to the Bucks' starters - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon. Now, though, the Bucks are getting key bench contributions from Jabari Parker and Thon Maker. Boston beat the Bucks, 92-87, this past Tuesday at home in Game 5. The Bucks shot only 36.8 percent from the floor and had 12 fewer free throw attempts than the Celtics. Yet they still hung in. The Bucks should shoot much better - they ranked No. 3 in the league in field goal percentage during the regular season at 47.8 percent - and get to the free throw more being at home and being strong in the paint. This is the Bucks' game to win - and I see them doing that. |
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04-25-18 | Wizards v. Raptors -7 | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
John Wall is healthy and dangerous. But I see the Raptors controlling Wall and solidly beating the Wizards. Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. That includes the Wizards failing to cover in their first two games at Toronto during this series, losing by eight and 11 points. The Raptors are 36-7 at Air Canada Centre. The Wizards hold a losing road mark. The Raptors could have swept this series already if they didn't blow two leads at Washington in Games 3 and 4. Toronto believes it is the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors very well could be. They have to prove it, though, by solidly winning this game. I see the Raptors putting forth a tremendous effort, playing much better than they did in Washington. Wall helped even the series by burning the Raptors repeatedly in transition. Look for the Raptors to cut back on their turnovers and to slow down Wall with their secret weapon, Pascal Siakam. He's a defensive ace whose minutes should go up. The Wizards are decent but nothing special. They are not in the Raptors' class. Toronto hurt itself with turnovers. I expect the Raptors to play smarter and better at home. If that happens, the Raptors should win by double-digits.
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04-25-18 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Simply put, it's too many points for Cleveland to lay. The series is tied 2-2. Cleveland's wins have been by three and four points. Only twice in their last 11 games have the Cavaliers beaten any team by more than six points. Indiana has been underrated all season. The Pacers are a tough out. They're getting contributions from their entire rotation. The same can't be said for the Cavaliers. Only LeBron James can be counted on. George Hill is questionable after missing Game 4 with back spasms. I don't think there's ever been a game in which George Hill wasn't questionable. Kevin Love is dealing with a thumb injury that has affected his shooting. He's missed 30 of 47 shots in the series and committed 11 turnovers. The Pacers are mad they let Game 4 slip away especially being home. But they are 6-0 ATS following a loss and 6-1 ATS in their last road games when taking on an opponent with an above .500 home mark. Indiana also has covered in six of its last seven visits to Cleveland. The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when playing on two day's rest. Some of that I attribute to Tyronn Lue, who I regard as the worst coach in the playoffs.
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04-24-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -11 | 91-99 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
Down 3-0 in the series, San Antonio saved faced with a 103-90 home win against Golden State this past Sunday. Now the Warriors return home knowing they need to end this series now with the Pelicans already waiting in the wings having swept the Trail Blazers in their first-round playoff series. The Spurs don't have it this year. Kawhi Leonard was a no-show. There's too much age and the great Gregg Popovich is in mourning following the death of his wife last week. Assistant Ettore Messina will coach the Spurs in this game with Popovich away. A combination of the Spurs being exceedingly hot from long range - 15 of 28 3-pointers - and the Warriors playing flat resulted in the Spurs' first win of the series. It's going to be their only win, too, as I see the Warriors definitely closing out things here. The major question, of course, is will they win by enough points to cover this double-digit spread? Steve Kerr and the Warriors have too much respect for the Spurs. They won't fool around. They certainly have the talent to bury the Spurs. They had leads of 19 or more points during the first three games of this series in winning by 21, 15 and 13 points, respectively. San Antonio has failed to cover in its last nine away games.
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
The Timberwolves aren't nearly in the same class as the Rockets. They were destroyed in the first two games of this series, but then won Game 3 at home. That was Minnesota's first home playoff game since 2004. The crowd and team were super fired-up. I don't see that continuing. The Rockets had their one bad game of the series. I doubut Houston is flat for a second consecutive game. I also don't see the Timberwolves being able to match last game's fever intensity. That was a special game and the Timberwolves shot out of their minds connecting on 15 of 27 three-point shots. Minnesota normally doesn't launch that many 3-pointers, or play quality defense like it did in Game 3. Ryan Anderson is back for Houston giving the Rockets another sharpshooter to go with James Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza. The Timberwolves haven't matched up well to the Rockets. Minnesota has lost to the Rockets in 20 of the past 23 meetings even with its Game 3 win.
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04-22-18 | Cavs +1 v. Pacers | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
Never has a LeBron James-led NBA team been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. But if the Cavaliers don't win this game, that's likely to happen as Indiana leads this best-of-seven series, 2-1. The Pacers stole a game the Cavaliers should have won coming from 17 points down to nip Cleveland, 92-90, this past Friday at home. This is the time to back the Cavaliers, though, when most everybody is down on them and they are near to be counted out. Cleveland has been playing strong defense. Open shots were there for the Cavaliers in the third quarter that would have stifled the Pacers' comeback. Cleveland just couldn't hit them. I believe in James. I believe the Cavaliers have made huge strides defensively. I believe they have put themselves into serious contention to win the Eastern Conference playoffs by getting more athletic at the trade deadline acquiring Larry Nance Jr., Rodney Hood, George Hill and Jordan Clarkson. The Cavaliers are used to this type of pressure. This is something new for the Pacers. James is the greatest player of his era and he's having one of his greatest seasons. I don't see it ending with a first-round loss to the Pacers, who are good but far from elite. Cleveland is going all out here. The Cavaliers have everything to prove after their Game 3 slip-up. It's unlikely James remains in Cleveland if the Cavaliers lose this first-round playoff series.
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04-20-18 | Avalanche v. Predators -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
Nice season for the Avalanche. They did well. But things end here for them. Colorado has played heavily favored Nashville tough in this opening-round Stanley Cup series, but a 3-2 home loss two days ago puts the Avalanche in a 3-1 hole that they aren't going to emerge from. I don't see Colorado having much left to fend off the Predators especially now going on the road. The Predators have been near unbeatable at home during the Stanley Cup going 15-2 in their last 17 playoff games at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators have outscored the Avalance, 10-6, in their two home playoff games during this series. And now the Avalanche are down to third-string goalie Andrew Hammond with both Semyon Varlamov and Jonathan Bernier out with injuries. Nashville has scored three or more goals in nine of its last 10 games, including all four games in this series. The Predators are playing well on special teams, too, and Pekka Rinne is at his best at home with a 2.10 GAA home playoff average for his career. The Predators have dominated the Avalanche winning 13 of the past 14 meetings.
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04-19-18 | Blazers +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 102-119 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
Just six days ago, Portland was considered to be superior to New Orleans. Now, two games later, the Pelicans are up 2-0 in their Western Conference playoff series and Portland is a road 'dog in do-or-die mode. Is it time to close the book on the Trail Blazers? Perhaps. But I do believe Damian Lillard is due for a turnabout and the Trail Blazers will let everything hang here. The Pelicans are going to take the Trail Blazers' best punch. Lillard has made just 13 of 41 shots from the floor for 31.7 percent in the series. He's much better than that. C.J. McCollum is due to play better, too. Portland should fare better as the hunter rather than the hunted. The Trail Blazers have covered six of the last eight times they've been underdogs. They have covered 56 percent of their road games this season. New Orleans has a decent, but not great home court advantage. The Pelicans have a losing ATS mark at Smoothie King Center. I find Portland's Terry Stotts to be an underrated coach. He's going to make adjustments and tweaks in this Game 3, including probably putting Moe Harkless into the starting lineup. Harkless could be Portland's secret weapon. He had been out the past 10 games due to injury before returning in Game 2. Harkless had a Portland-best plus 10 during his court time in Game 2. The Trail Blazers entered the playoffs 13-3 ATS the last 16 times Harkless has played. |
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04-17-18 | Wizards +6.5 v. Raptors | 119-130 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
The Wizards fell 114-106 in Saturday's Game 1 of this playoff series. But Washington was leading much of the time until midway through the final quarter. The Raptors hit 16 of 30 3-point shots for 53.3 percent. The 16 3-pointers was a franchise playoff record. I don't see the Raptors repeating that performance. These teams are closer than perceived. They split their four regular season games. The Wizards made just 8 of 21 3-point shots from 3-point range. The Raptors aren't that good from long range and the Wizards figure to shoot better. John Wall is getting more comfortable since returning from injury. The Raptors may be without key backcourt reserve Fred VanVleet, too. He has a shoulder injury.
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04-16-18 | Spurs +10 v. Warriors | 101-116 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
There's an overreaction to the Warriors' 113-92 burial of the Spurs from Saturday's opening playoff game. The Warriors may be back on track defensively, but they are not the powerhouse of the previous two seasons. The Warriors remain without Stephen Curry and are 8-10 in their last 18 games. This is a down year for the Spurs. But they still have the talent, bench and tremendous coaching to be respectable if not dangerous. I'm looking for a strong effort from San Antonio after its embarrassing first game loss. Only twice in their last 17 games, have the Spurs lost by double-digits. Golden State is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory of more than 10 points. The Warriors also have failed to cover 12 of the last 14 times when playing on one day's rest.
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04-14-18 | Heat +7 v. 76ers | Top | 103-130 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
The 76ers are the hottest team in the NBA winners of 16 games in a row. But they are vulnerable now that it's playoff time. How's that? Let's take a closer look. Center Joel Embiid is arguably Philly's most valuable player depending on how you feel about Ben Simmons. Certainly Embiid is the 76ers' best big man. He has missed the past eight games because of an orbital fracture and is not expected to play in this Game 1. The 76ers have won all eight of those games. However, six of those victories were against non-playoff opponents. No Embiid means the Heat have the best big man on the floor in Hassan Whiteside. The Heat are healthy as All-Star point guard Goran Dragic is expected to play after sitting out Wednesday's victory against the Raptors with a bruised knee. Philadelphia last made the playoffs in 2012. Brett Brown has never coached a postseason game in the NBA. The Heat are the more experienced team, battle tested, have the stronger bench and one of the top coaches in the league, Erik Spoelstra. The Heat have defense and depth. That can trump first-string talent, an edge the 76ers hold. Playoff basketball is different than the regular season something the 76ers have not experienced. Miami is the type of blue-collar, experienced, well-coached team that can take advantage of the 76ers' youth and total lack of playoff experience. All of the pressure is on the 76ers especially being at home. They are in uncharted waters and being asked to cover a mid-range point spread number. This is a lot of points for Philly to be laying. No team in the NBA hangs around as much as the Heat do. They were involved in games with a five-point differential with fewer than five minutes to play in regulation more than any other team in the league. Miami and Philadelphia met four times during the regular season. The 76ers won the first two, the Heat captured the last two. The Heat outscored the 76ers by two points during the four games. There is no reason why this shouldn't be another close game, too.
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04-09-18 | Kings +14.5 v. Spurs | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
The Spurs aren't dominant like they have been in the past. San Antonio isn't likely to blow out the Kings especially given the circumstances. The Kings are a respectable 5-7 during their past 12 games. Only twice during these last dozen games have the Kings lost by more than 11 points. They are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 away contests. The Spurs just beat the Trail Blazers two days ago and have a much bigger game on deck Wednesday playing at the Pelicans. San Antonio has failed to cover four of the last five times against foes with a road win percentage of less than .400. The goal for the Spurs is to win this game, not go balls-out to cover a huge margin. San Antonio has been playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during the last 10 games. So that makes covering this big number even more difficult.
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04-09-18 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -15 | 94-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Even if they weren't in must-win mode to try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004, the Timberwolves would have great incentive to beat Memphis. The Grizzlies are 2-0 versus Minnesota this season. Memphis embarrassed Minnesota, 101-93, as 13-point road 'dogs when the teams last met on March 26. Talent-wise, the Timberwolves are a playoff team. But if they miss out they can blame two factors - Jimmy Butler missing 17 games with a knee injury and losing twice to the Grizzlies, who possess the second-worst record in the NBA. Butler returned this past Friday. His presence helped spark the Timberwolves to an easy 113-96 road win. Minnesota hasn't played since having the weekend off to rest and prepare for this matchup. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are in a rare flat spot. They whipped the Pistons, 130-117, on Sunday in their final home game of the season. That was the Grizzlies' best offensive game of the season.
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04-08-18 | Pistons v. Grizzlies +6.5 | 117-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
The Pistons have no special incentive here being out of the playoffs. They will be without injured Blake Griffin, too. This is Memphis' final home game of the season. The Grizzlies are in danger of finishing with their worst record since relocating to Memphis. Despite this horrendous season, the Grizzlies have played to nearly 90 percent capacity in their home games. The Grizzlies conclude their season with road games against the Timberwolves and Thunder. Those are likely losses. So this is the Grizzlies' best chance to win a game before the season ends. I believe they will come out hard for their loyal home fans and play hard. Marc Gasol can match Andre Drummond. |
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04-07-18 | Padres v. Astros -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a kill spot for the Astros following their surprising 3-1 home loss to the Padres on Friday. The Astros may have the best lineup in baseball. The Padres may have the worst. Gerrit Cole had a strong Houston debut and dominated the Padres when he was in the NL going 4-2 with a 1.96 ERA in six career starts versus them. Padres starter Bryan Mitchell has some upside, but he's not ready for the majors yet. He had a rough season debut and now draws the Astros on the road. San Diego's best relievers carry a high fatigue rating. This isn't going to be pretty.
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04-06-18 | Heat v. Knicks +9 | 98-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
I understand the Knicks are a hard sell right now. But Miami isn't very good on the road and this is a flat spot for the Heat, while the Knicks should be fired-up after their dreadful 97-73 home loss to the Magic from Tuesday. The worst thing you can say about an NBA team is that it quit. The Knicks have heard that criticism for three days now following that defeat to Orlando. I expect the Knicks to rally around their coach, Jeff Hornacek, and to play hard here. New York also has short revenge for a stinging 119-98 road loss to Miami on March 21. The Knicks own a winning home ATS mark. Trey Burke is playing his best ball since coming to the NBA and Emmanuel Mudiay isn't playing quite as many minutes. Those are all positive factors for the Knicks. But a lot of this handicap is going against the Heat. The Heat just clinched a playoff spot by virtue of two consecutive victories against the Hawks. It's going to be difficult for Miami to get motivated to face another lottery opponent with its major goal - making the playoffs after missing last season - accomplished. Miami has won just two of its past 13 road contests. Those victories were against the Hawks and Lakers by one point. Among the Heat's road losses during this span was a defeat to the Kings. So the Knicks are very much a live 'dog here.
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04-05-18 | Nets +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Unlike other lottery teams, the Nets have no incentive to tank being without a No. 1 draft pick. That usually ensures a good effort from the Nets. It didn't happen in their last game, tnough. Brooklyn was blown out by sizzling Philadelphia, 121-95. Look for a much stronger game from the Nets following that embarrassing road loss. Going back to mid-March, the Nets would be 8-2 ATS if given more than seve points. Brooklyn has covered seven of its past eight away matchups. The Bucks are in letdown mode off a highly-satisfying home victory against the Celtics two days ago and having just clinched a playoff spot when the Pistons lost last night. Now that the Bucks are officially in the playoffs, they might reduce the minutes of their starters to get them ready for the post-season. That could mean Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been dealing with assorted minor injuries. The spot is dangerous for the Bucks and they have not been good in this type of role either. Milwaukee is 2-11 in its last 13 home games and 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting a sub .500 opponent. |
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04-03-18 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
The Celtics own the top point spread mark in the NBA. Boston has won six in a row and is just two games behind Toronto for the No. 1 seed in the East after an impressive 110-99 home win against the Raptors this past Saturday. Boston has been idle since that victory while the Bucks are playing for the fourth time in six days. This is the Bucks' first game back home after being on the West Coast for four games. That trip finished Sunday night.
The Celtics are without Kyrie Irving. But they've been getting strong play from Jayston Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier. The Celtics have a deep bench and are much better coached than Milwaukee. The Bucks have one of the weak home court floors. Milwaukee has covered only 28 percent of its last 31 games at Bradley Center. |
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04-02-18 | Avalanche v. Kings -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 167 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The Kings are trying to hold off the Avalanche for the first wild-card spot in the West. They are in a great spot to succeed. LA has been idle since losing a 2-1 road game to the Ducks this past Friday. The Avalanche carries a much higher fatigue rating in action for the third time in four days and second time in two days after suffering a tough 4-3 overtime road loss to the Ducks last night. Colorado relies on its power play unit a lot. However, the Kings have the highest percentage rating of killing penalties. They haven't allowed a power play goal during their last eight games spanning 20 power play attempts. The Avalanche has lost in five of their last six visits to LA.
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04-01-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -4 | 125-128 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Milwaukee and Denver each are 41-35. The Nuggets, though, have the disadvantage of being in the Western Conference so they are two games out of the last playoff spot. This is must-win time for them. Denver is much stronger at home going 27-10 at Pepsi Center compared to 14-25 on the road. The Bucks are five games up on the Pistons for the last spot in the Eastern Conference. I don't see the Bucks being as intense as the Nuggets here. This the Bucks' fourth road game in six days and third game in four days. They are coming off consecutive victores versus the Warriors and Lakers in overtime. The Bucks return home after this game so a letdown very much could be in store. The Bucks are just 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games despite winning their last two games.
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03-31-18 | Warriors -8.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Can the Kings actually win a season series against the Warriors having already defeated Golden State twice at Oracle Arena? No, of course not. Golden State is in an excellent spot to put a much needed halt to its three-game losing streak. The Warriors aren't at full strength, but they do have Kevin Durant and Dramond Green back for sure. The Warriors should have a sense of urgency not only to avenge two surprising home losses to the Kings, but to start getting things right to defend their world title with the playoffs coming up in a couple of weeks. It's easy to spotlight how bad the Warriors have been missing Stephen Curry, but the Kings are playing bad, too, losing five of their last six. They've been held to 98 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The Warriors rank third in defensive field goal percentage. They not only have the two superstars, but also a much stronger bench.
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03-30-18 | Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Marlins aren't just bad. They are bad enough to be in the argument of being the worst team in the decade. The oddsmaker knows this. That's why the price is so high to fade the Marlins. The best and safest way to protect the bankroll while still going against the Marlins is backing the Cubs on the run line. Kyle Hendricks is one of the most reliable starters in baseball. He allowed one or fewer runs in eight of his last 16 starts in 2017. His career ERA is 2.94. The Marlins gutted their offense. The Cubs should do enormous damage against Caleb Smith. The rookie lefty is a fill-in for injured Dan Straily. Nothing indicates Smith is ready to pitch in the majors especially facing such a challenging lineup that has tremendous right-handed power. The Cubs were 21-14 versus lefty starters last season. They toyed with the Marlins on Thursday before putting them away, 8-4. It should be the same story today with the Cubs easily winning by multiple runs.
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03-29-18 | Bucks v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
After consectuive home losses to the Jazz and Pacers, I see the Warriors bouncing back today against the underacheiving, complacent Bucks. The Warriors have been losing because of being short-handed. That changes here with the return of superstar Kevin Durant and All-Star Draymond Green. The Bucks are safetly in front of the Pistons by five games for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks aren't playing that well. They are 2-3 in their last five games with one of the victories coming against the tanking Bulls. Giannis Antetokounumpo hasn't been 100 percent because of an ankle injury. The Bucks have a much easier game on Friday playing the Lakers, so if they fall well behind they could just rest up their starters for tomorrow. The Warriors defeated the Bucks by 14 points in Milwaukee on Jan. 12 when they didn't have Stephen Curry. There's just too much of a class difference here and the timing is ripe for the Warriors getting back two of their stars while in stop-the-pain mode.
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03-27-18 | Bucks v. Clippers -3 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
The Clippers proved they were better than the Bucks when they beat them by seven points just five days ago in Milwaukee. Now the Clippers are home in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot in the West. The Bucks don't have that kind of urgency being safely ahead of ninth-place Detroit by six games. Milwaukee is an underachiever given its talent. The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 games. The Clippers have been tough versus Eastern Conference foes. They just upset the best team in the East beating the Raptors in Toronto two days ago. That pushed the Clippers' mark to 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games versus Eastern opponents. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't 100 percent because of an ankle injury. The Clippers could get back sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari for this game. |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia +5 v. Villanova | Top | 78-90 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
This year's NCAA Tournament has been filled with upsets and extremely close games. I see that happening in this matchup. In most cases you have to go through stages to advance far in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia reached the Sweet 16 last season. The Mountaineers still have their tremendous, tenacious pressing defense, but their offense is better this season. Jevon Carter is a tremendous all-around player, the kind of guard who can lead a team to the tournament championship. West Virginia averaged more than 80 points a game this season and its defense - both physical and athletic - will make things difficult for Villanova. The Wildcats have been bailed out so far in the tournament by extraordinary 3-point shooting. I don't see that continuing here.
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03-22-18 | Lakers +2.5 v. Pelicans | 125-128 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
As far as fatigue factors go in the NBA, the Pelicans face the worst I've seen in a long time. Because of an earlier postponed game, the Pelicans are in action for the third straight day and fifth time in six days. The line is a little shorter because of it, but there are other reasons to back the Lakers and fade the Pelicans. The Lakers are 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games. They are in stop-the-pain mode, though, having lost three in a row. Those losses came to the Warriors, Heat by one point and Pacers. Before their losing skid, the Lakers had won eight of 10. So they are not in tank mode. Their talent level is higher than other lottery-bound teams. The Lakers should have far more energy than the Pelicans. Not only are the Lakers much younger, but they last played on Monday. This marks just their third game in seven days. The Lakers also have double revenge motivation. The Pelicans had a tougher-than-they-wanted victory against the Mavericks on Tuesday. They then beat the Pacers, 96-92, in another tough matchup last night. Anthony Davis logged more than 70 minutes during the two games. Jrue Holiday, the Pelicans' second-most valuable player, is battling the flu and needed intravenous fluids at halftime yesterday. This isn't a must-win spot for the Pelicans. They are three games ahead of Denver for the final playoff spot in the West. So Alvin Gentry shouldn't burn up his starters to win this game given the special fatigue situation. New Orleans hasn't been good in this type of role either failing to cover 10 of the past 13 times at home versus below .500 road opponents.
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