Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
It shouldn't be that shocking Golden State is down 0-2 to Sacramento. After all, the first two games of this series were in Sacramento. The Warriors were 11-30 on the road. But now the Warriors return home. That makes all the difference. Golden State is 33-8 at home. All of the Warriors' statistics are better at home than on the road. Each of Golden State's past nine home victories have been by at least eight points. The Warriors are 39-16-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 56 home contests. I'm not worried the Warriors won't have Draymond Green. I'm being objective here since I haven't despised a Golden State player as much as I do Green since Rick Barry (yes I go that far back). Barry was a whiner. Green is a whiner and a dirty player. I digress. I'll gladly accept the tradeoff of laying fewer points without Green. Because the Warriors won't need Green to produce an all-out effort at home in must-win mode while the Kings come in fat and happy having accomplished what they set out to do in Sacramento. I'm expecting a professional, focused effort from the defending world champions without having to be concerned about Green's distractions and drama. Golden State went 2-0 at home this season when they didn't have Green. The Kings are listing their best big man, Domantas Sabonis, as questionable with a bruised sternum. I fully expect Sabonis to play. It's just an unexpected bonus if he doesn't, or is limited. |
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04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 171 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Backing the Maple Leafs in the playoffs can be an exercise in futility. But I see the Maple Leafs coming up big against the Lightning at home in Game 2 of their series after being upset by four goals as a mid-sized favorite two days ago in Game 1. Toronto is 5-0 the past five times following a home loss of three or more goals. The Maple Leafs have the talent. Their lack of intensity and mistakes around the net prevalent in Game 1 should be cleaned up here following that opening game, 7-3, embarrassament. Tampa Bay has lost six of its last eight road games. This is not the great Lightning team of the past few years. The Lightning also have injury concerns, especially on the blue line. Defenseman Erik Cernak is out. Star defenseman Victor Hedman is questionable with an undisclosed injury. He didn't practice Wednesday. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
I had the Clippers plus 7 1/2 in Game 1 of this series expecting a huge performance from Kawhi Leonard. So I wasn't surprised when Leonard scored 38 in the Clippers' upset victory this past Sunday. But now I'm going the other way for this Game 2 riding the Zig Zag theory. I don't see the Suns losing a second straight home game, which would put them in serious jeopardy for the series. Kevin Durant also played well in that Game 1. The Suns are 8-1 with Durant in their lineup. They way outnumber the Paul George-less Clippers in star power. The Suns won't be taking the Clippers lightly in this must-win spot. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a victory. |
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04-17-23 | Nets +10.5 v. 76ers | 84-96 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
The Nets don't have nearly the talent anymore that the 76ers have. But the Nets are pesky, spunky and will be going all out after losing, 121-101, to Philadelphia in Saturday's Game 1 playoff matchup. That was just the fourth time in their last 21 games that the Nets lost by more than 10 points. The 76ers made a franchise-record 21 3-pointers while hitting 48 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The 76ers dominated the offensive glass. Philadelphia ended up getting 19 more shots than Brooklyn. The Nets committed 19 turnovers. I'm expecting adjustments and far less sloppy play from the Nets in this Game 2. |
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04-16-23 | Clippers +7.5 v. Suns | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
Forget the regular season. The Clippers are in the playoffs. That makes them dangerous. They are a veteran team with arguably the best all-around player in basketball, Kawhi Leonard. Only twice during the previous two seasons did the Clippers lose by more than seven points in a playoff matchup spanning 21 games. The Suns look far superior on paper with stars Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton. But The Suns aren't in sync yet due to Durant playing only eight games for them. Phoenix also doesn't have a deep bench. The Suns' reserve strength could be even more thin if injured Bismack Biyombo and Cameron Payne aren't ready to play after getting hurt during the second-to-last game of the regular season. The Clippers have better reserves. Paul George is out, but the Clippers have Russell Westbrook along with underrated role players Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac and Nicolas Batum. The Clippers also have proven extremely tough following ample rest. They have covered 69 percent of their last 52 games when playing with three or more days rest. |
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04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
No surprise Oakland has the worst record so far at 3-10. That's because the A's are the worst team in the league. The Mets are going with Kodai Senga, their big off-season pickup from Japan. Senga has been brilliant so far going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He has a rested bullpen behind him as the Mets were idle Thursday. The A's are in action for the eighth straight day. They have a taxed bullpen and a terrible starter going today, James Kaprielian. He has an 11.17 ERA in his two starts this season bombed by the Guardians and Rays. Each of the Mets' seven victories have come by more than one run. |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
Disrespected by the oddsmaker and marketplace all season, Oklahoma City has proven it is far ahead of schedule. The Thunder have covered 57 percent of their games this season going 46-34-3 ATS. They will reach the playoffs if they beat the Timberwolves. The Thunder upset the Pelicans on Wednesday. I see them doing the same to Minnesota. Oklahoma City is on house money. The pressure is on the favored Timberwolves. Minnesota is banged-up and has chemistry issues. I find the Timberwolves untrustworthy. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Only twice in their last 10 games have the Thunder lost by more than five points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is as big as any star Minnesota has. Rudy Gobert is back from his one-game suspension for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. Gobert, though, is not 100 percent due to back trouble. Jaden McDaniels, a top defensive wing, is out. So is Naz Reid. Those are two key rotation players for Minnesota. The Thunder have covered in six of their last seven visits to Minnesota. |
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04-14-23 | Avalanche v. Predators +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Colorado needs to beat the Predators on the road here in order to edge out Dallas for the Central Division title. That is going to be easier said than done. The Avalanche are a banged-up team and the Predators haven't shown any quit despite being eliminated from the playoffs. Colorado's depth took a hit in its 4-2 home win against the Jets last night as forwards Andrew Cogliano and Denis Maign left with injuries. Nashville is 4-1 in its last five games. During their last nine games, the Predators beat three clubs that won divisions - Bruins, Golden Knights and Hurricanes. Nashville has surrendered only nine goals during its past five games. |
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04-12-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Few expected the Thunder to reach the postseason this season. The Thunder are on house money with all the pressure on the home Pelicans with the loser of this matchup eliminated. The Pelicans went 9-3 down the stretch to reach this point. That took a lot of physical and mental energy. Oklahoma City has lost only twice by more than five points during its last nine games. The Thunder have confidence knowing they defeated the Pelicans, 110-96, in New Orleans when the teams last met on March 11. The Thunder have been strong money-makers all season going 45-34-3 ATS, the third-best spread in the NBA. I trust them to hang in against the Pelicans. |
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04-11-23 | Wolves v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The Lakers are hot, peaking at the right time. The Timberwolves lack the bodies, maturity and leadership to stay close on the road against the Lakers here. LA has won nine of its last 11 games with six of those victories coming by 11 or more points. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are in sync. D'Angelo Russell is back contributing. The Timberwolves are in disarray - and it's not just because star center Rudy Gobert is suspended for this game for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. The Timberwolves have three underrated injuries: Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell. They are all out. Those are the Timberwolves' fourth, sixth and seventh-leading scorers and key complementary players. So without those three and Gobert, Minnesota is down four of its nine rotation players. It's too much to expect Minnesota to stay within single digits of the hot Lakers on the road minus all those components especially given their team makeup. |
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04-10-23 | Nationals v. Angels -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
Happy Patrick Corbin day. Corbin may be the worst starting pitcher in the majors. This is especially so early in the season. Corbin had an 8.39 ERA in March/April last season. His ERA is 8.00 through two starts this year. He also isn't very good on the road where he was 2-11 with a 7.75 ERA last year. Corbin is facing an Angels team that ranks No. 3 in runs, No. 5 in homers and has the fifth-best ERA. Angels starter Jose Suarez had a tough opening outing. The lefty should find things much easier against the Nationals, who are last in the league ih homers. Washington has dropped 11 of its last 12 interleague games when facing a southpaw starter. The Nationals have lost by an average of 3.7 runs during their seven defeats this season. |
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04-08-23 | Wolves v. Spurs +14 | 151-131 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
At worst, the Timberwolves are going to be involved in the postseason with a play-in game. They would rather earn the No. 8 seed in the West, which they are live to do if they beat the Spurs here, Pelicans on Sunday and things fall their way. The Timberwolves, though, are just 5-10 against the NBA's five worst teams. That includes the Spurs, who are 2-1 versus Minnesota this season. So the Timberwolves do not have a good track record in these types of games. They lack that maturity. They also are laying an inflated number because of their playoff situation. "We always fall short, it seems,'' Anthony Edwards was quoted as saying about the Timberwolves' struggles against bottom feeders. "It always haunts us. It's just a level of respect for the game. You've got to treat every game the same, and that's something that we lack.'' This is the Spurs' second consecutive game at the Moody Center in Austin. That's where their G-League franchise is located. The Spurs beat the Trail Blazers, 129-127, there on Thursday, sparked by the atmosphere and crowd support. The Timberwolves haven't played there. Minnesota last was in action on Tuesday. So there could be a rust factor for the Timberwolves. |
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04-05-23 | Knicks v. Pacers +8.5 | Top | 138-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
The Pacers are out of the playoff race. They aren't likely to have their two best players, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner. So why back Indiana? The Knicks lack motivation and are banged-up. New York is locked into the No. 5 playoff seed in the East. Julius Randle, New York's best player, is out for the rest of the regular season because of an ankle injury. Star point guard Jalen Brunson, the Knicks' second-best player, is dealing with hand and foot injuries that have caused him to miss seven of the last 15 games. The Pacers should play hard. Their young players are fighting for jobs. Rick Carlisle is a good coach who demands effort. Indiana upset Oklahoma City at home two games ago and in its last game led the Cavaliers for most of the contest before falling apart during the final four minutes in a 10-point road loss this past Sunday. The Pacers were derailed in that game by Donovan Mitchell, who shot 14-of-25 from the field and scored 40 points. The Knicks don't have a shooter nearly the superstar caliber of Mitchell. This is what Carlisle was quoted as saying: ''The way we're set up for our young guys, it really is a great opportunity for them. ''... This period of the last 2 1/2, three weeks is very valuable. This creates momentum into next season. We have momentum with our roster.'' Look for the Pacers to hang here if not pull out an outright victory. (Editor's note: The line has dropped considerably since I posted this play in large part because Brunson has been ruled out. I still would strongly back the Pacers believing Indiana is very live to win this game straight-up.) |
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04-04-23 | Lakers v. Jazz +9 | 135-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
The Lakers are peaking with LeBron James and Anthony Davis showing good chemistry since James' return from injury. LA has won three in a row. Utah has covered 12 of the last 16 times when playing on one day's rest. The Jazz are capable of springing upsets at home. Just a little more than 2 1/2 weeks ago, Utah upset the Kings and Celtics. The Lakers have a bigger game on tap tomorrow when they return to LA to play in-city division rival the Clippers. This could mean reduced minutes for James and the fragile Davis in tonight's game. |
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04-04-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +9.5 | 103-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the Western Conference. They don't feel a great deal of urgency to prove themselves during this final week of the regular season. So superstar Nikola Jokic will be sitting out this game, continuing to nurse tightness in his calf. This opens the door for the home 'dog Rockets to stay within single digits. This will be the Nuggets' fourth consecutive game without Jokic. During this span they lost to the Pelicans by 19 at home, lost by 7 to the Suns and edged the Warriors by two at home two days ago leaving them fat, happy and unmotivated for this matchup. The Rockets are capable. They are 4-3 in their last seven home games. Among the teams the Rockets beat at home during this time frame were the Celtics, Lakers and Pelicans. |
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04-04-23 | Cavs v. Magic +5.5 | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Orlando has the second-best point spread mark in the NBA covering 58 percent. Most of these covers came as underdogs. That's the case again here. Orlando is on the verge of being eliminated from the play-in race. This is last stand time for the Magic. That should ensure a strong effort. The Magic have been playing well going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning five of their past six games. The Cavaliers are all but locked into the No. 4 seed in the East. The Cavaliers aren't likely to be super motivated here. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -7.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number. Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively. However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that. Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams. Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here. |
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04-03-23 | Tigers v. Astros -1.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Still have any optimism about the Tigers this season? Detroit looks as bad as ever opening the season 0-3 after getting swept by the Rays. The Tigers scored just three runs during the series. I certainly don't see things changing for Detroit in the immediate future against the Astros. Matt Boyd is set to make his first start for the Tigers since 2021. I don't expect him to go deep into the game, nor to be very effective against the powerful Astros, who look as strong as ever. Hunter Brown is set to face Boyd. Brown is the Astros' top prospect. He displayed his vast potential in seven appearances last season, including two starts, going 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA. |
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04-02-23 | 76ers v. Bucks -5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
I want the Bucks going for me at home in double-revenge against the 76ers and off their second-worst loss in franchise history following a 140-99 embarrassment to the Celtics. Milwaukee is 13-5 ATS following a non-point spread cover. The prideful Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo should be highly motivated for this matchup. The 76ers have won the past two meetings in the series. They stopped the Bucks' 16-game winning streak with a 133-130 on March 4. Milwaukee has covered seven of the last 10 times it has hosted the 76ers. |
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03-31-23 | Kings v. Blazers +15 | Top | 138-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I understand the Trail Blazers are fielding a JV lineup these days. But the situation sets up perfect for Portland to cover this large number. Sacramento clinched a playoff spot following its last game this past Wednesday. That's a big deal for the Kings. They had gone 16 seasons without earning a postseason berth, the longest playoff drought in NBA history. The team who the Kings beat Wednesday? None other than the Trail Blazers. And the Kings buried them, 120-80. Hard to believe the Kings are going to have any intensity for this matchup after celebrating their playoff spot and knowing how bad their opponent is. This is Portland's second-to-last home game. The Trail Blazers should put forth a great effort after Wednesday's humiliation. |
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03-31-23 | Spurs +18 v. Warriors | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
The Warriors came back from a 20-point deficit to beat the Pelicans in their last game. Up next for Golden State is a Sunday showdown against the Nuggets in Denver. So you can't blame the Warriors if they look past the lowly Spurs in this matchup. Golden State is 0-2 ATS this season laying more than 12 points. This is the most points the Warriors are laying all season in a game. The Spurs have guaranteed themselves finishing in the bottom three giving them the best chances, along with the Pistons and Rockets, of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft. So the Spurs have motivation. The backdoor should swing wide open for the Spurs if the Warriors were to build a huge lead because Steve Kerr would reduce the minutes of his star players. |
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03-31-23 | Jazz +13.5 v. Celtics | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Even though the Jazz are going to be missing Lauri Markkanen due to a hand injury, this spot sets up well for Utah. Boston is off perhaps its finest victory of the season. The Celtics buried the host Bucks, 140-99, last night. Now the Celtics return home to play this matchup without rest while laying a big number. The Jazz are spunky and remain in playoff contention. They beat the Celtics in the team's earlier meeting this season and are quite capable of keeping the final score within single digits. Utah has covered its last six road games. The Jazz also are 14-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road. The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor. UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers. Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games. I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-27-23 | Wolves v. Kings -4 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Not only is this a terrible spot for the Timberwolves, but their two best players could be impacted. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards played major minutes helping the Timberwolves upset the Warriors, 99-96, at Golden State last night. It's asking a lot for the Timberwolves to pull off a second consecutive upset - and doing it without rest. Towns has played just twice since missing 51 games with a calf injury. He's on a minutes restriction. He logged 32 minutes against Golden State, which is more than Minnesota wanted to use him. Edwards returned after missing three straight games with a sprained ankle. He logged 35 minutes. The Timberwolves play at the Suns on Wednesday followed by a home game against the Lakers on Friday. So they could be thinking long-term and hold out Towns and Edwards not wanting to risk those stars getting hurt after playing the night before, especially considering how fast and up-tempo the Kings play. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory. Sacramento is 23-15 at home. Minnesota is 17-20 on the road. The Kings beat the Jazz by eight points at home in their last game two days ago minus De'Aaron Fox. He sat out with a hamstring injury. It's an injury that's not considered serious. Fox is questionable for this matchup. It's a nice bonus if Fox plays. But I still like the Kings to cover even if Fox doesn't suit up. |
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03-26-23 | Rockets +14.5 v. Cavs | 91-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
After beating the Nets twice on the road in close games, the Cavaliers are back home for the first time in nine days fat, happy and laying a boatload of points here. On deck for the Cavaliers is a road game against the Hawks Tuesday. So, yes, I consider this a flat spot for Cleveland. It could be hard for the Cavaliers to not be overconfident after the Rockets just were destroyed, 151-114, by the Grizzlies this past Friday. The key question here is are the Rockets capable of hanging around with the Cavaliers? Given the circumstances and Houston being healthy except for rotation player, Jae'Sean Tate, I'd say yes. The Rockets are in rebuild mode, but they don't lack talent. They nearly upset the Grizzlies on Wednesday before the Grizzlies buried them in the rematch. Houston is 3-4 in its last seven games. The Rockets are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games. Houston shouldn't lack motivation following its humiliating loss to the Grizzlies. A strong effort by the Rockets should produce a comfortable point spread cover. |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense. Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves. Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament. It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside. Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points. I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me. |
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03-25-23 | Jazz +8.5 v. Kings | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
The Kings are a huge success story this season with a 44-29 record, which translates to a .603 winning percentage. Sacramento, however, has a losing record when its star point guard, De'Aaron Fox, doesn't play. Fox isn't likely to play here after suffering a hamstring injury in the Kings' 135-127 home win against the Suns last night. The Jazz also played last night and were buried at home by the Bucks, 144-116. Because of the blowout, none of the Jazz players logged big minutes. The Kings, on the other hand, had three starters go big minutes in the win against the Suns. Utah has proven resilient going 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Jazz also are 13-3 ATS when playing an opponent with a win percentage above .600. Utah and Sacramento have met three times this season. The Kings won the first two games by a combined three points. The Jazz upset the Kings, 128-120, at home in the last meeting this past Monday. Utah won that game despite not having Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson. It's a plus if either of those two can play today with Markkanen being listed as questionable. The Jazz have covered the past five times against Sacramento. |
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03-24-23 | Bulls v. Blazers +2.5 | 124-96 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games. I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here. This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here. The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago. The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have injured DeMar DeRozan. I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games. I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here. This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here. The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago. The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have DeMar DeRozan. The line has gone up since I released this play as Damian Lillard is questionable and Jusuf Nurkic is doubtful. Given the iffy status of these key players, I would downgrade my selection from one unit to half a unit. |
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03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas -4 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th. Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game. Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns. The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games. |
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03-24-23 | Bucks v. Jazz +9.5 | 144-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The Bucks are not a team I normally want to go against. Not only do the Bucks have the best record in the NBA, but they've also covered 57 percent of the games. But this spot sets up for Utah and the line value is there. The Jazz are a top-four team against the spread like Milwaukee, covering 57 percent of their games, too. The Bucks haven't been on the road in 10 days. They have a huge look-ahead marquee game up next at the Nuggets - the West's No. 1 seed - on Saturday. Utah had its two-game win streak snapped in a bad 12-point home loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago. Prior to that, Utah had covered six in a row. The Jazz should play hard here following that home humiliation. Utah has to play road games in four of its next five games. The Bucks won't have Khris Middleton, arguably their second-best player. They may limit Giannis Antetokounmpo's minutes, too, knowing they have a monster matchup tomorrow. Milwaukee traditionally hasn't fared well in Utah's high altitude. The Bucks are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games in Salt Lake City. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State +1.5 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Tom Izzo is a great coach. But Michigan State is getting too much respect here because of that. Kansas State is the better team. So I'll back the Wildcats in an underdog role. The Wildcats have been underrated on the line all season. They have covered 16 of the past 21 times versus above .500 opponents. Michigan State missed 14 of 16 3-point shots in its win against Marquette. The Spartans won't survive Kansas State if they don't shoot a whole lot better from beyond the arc. The Wildcats have the superior defense. They rank 13th in 3-point defense. The Spartans are averaging just 66.3 points in their last three games. |
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03-22-23 | 76ers -3 v. Bulls | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Maybe the Bulls have the 76ers' number this season. But I'll lay this short number to find out. Chicago ended the 76ers' eight-game home win streak back on Jan. 6, winning 126-112. Joel Embiid didn't play in that game. The Bulls then halted the 76ers' eight-game win streak this past Monday, beating Philadelphian in double overtime, 109-105. That was the first time Embiid lost to the Bulls in 13 career games. The 76ers didn't play well at home against Chicago. They committed 21 turnovers and missed 26 of 36 shots from 3-point range. James Harden was uncharacteristically bad making just 2-of-14 shots from the field. Philadelphia is the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the NBA and also ranks No. 3 in defensive 3-point percentage. I'm betting on a bounce back game from the 76ers, who are 14 games better than the Bulls, in this short revenge spot. |
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03-22-23 | Rockets +13 v. Grizzlies | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Ja Morant is set to make his return today for Memphis. That's great news for the Grizzlies. But it also could affect their concentration. This already is a letdown spot for the Grizzlies after they rallied in the fourth quarter to beat the Mavericks at home two days ago in a hotly contested game. Morant is expected to play. However, Memphis will be minus three key rotation players - suspended Dillon Brooks and injured Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. Don't be deceived by Houston's poor season record. The Rockets have gotten healthy and have been playing better going 5-5 in their last 10 games. They've covered in their last two road games, losing to the Pacers in overtime and rolling past the Spurs. |
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03-22-23 | UAB v. Vanderbilt | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
Oddsmaker opened Vanderbilt the favorite. Wrong. Alabama-Birmingham is the better team. That's the way the marketplace has so far reacted and I'm in agreement. Vanderbilt is home and off an impressive victory against big-name Michigan. So it's understandable why the oddsmaker opened the Commodores the favorite. But UAB is hot - 14-2 in its last 16 games, including six straight wins - and holds several key edges. The Blazers have a rebounding edge being one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Commodores are minus their top rebounder, injured Liam Robbins. UAB also has a deeper bench. This is important, too, because the Blazers play at an extremely fast tempo. Vanderbilt has a shorter rotation making it more vulnerable to getting worn down, especially this late in the season. Both teams played Southern Mississippi. The Blazers buried Southern Mississippi, 88-60, in their first-round NIT game. Vanderbilt lost to Southern Mississippi, 60-48, at home early in the season. UAB is coached by Andy Kennedy, who knows the SEC well having been the head coach at Mississippi. The Blazers are 2-0 versus SEC teams this season beating Georgia at a neutral site and South Carolina at home. |
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03-20-23 | Kings v. Jazz +5 | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
The Kings have been a huge success story this season. But Utah is below-the-radar and this is a bad spot for the Kings, in action for the fourth time in six days and off three consecutive road wins beating the Bulls, Nets and Wizards. The Jazz have covered five in a row. They just upset the Celtics at home two days ago. This is only the Jazz's second game in seven days so they are fresher than Sacramento. Utah has double revenge going, too, The Kings nipped the Jazz twice, winning by a combined margin of three points. The Jazz are 12-2 ATS the past 14 times they've played an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. They also are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings versus the Kings. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
The 76ers have won eight in a row. They've had this game circled for more than three months. Sparked by Zach LaVine's torrid shooting in a 41-point performance, the Bulls upset the 76ers, 126-112, as 5-point road 'dogs on Jan. 6. That snapped Philadelphia's 11-game home win streak. LaVine made 14 of 19 shots from the floor and hit 11 of 13 3-pointers. I highly doubt LaVine comes close to repeating those numbers. The 76ers rank third defensively and fourth in defensive 3-point percentage. Nobody in the NBA is playing better than Joel Embiid. He's scored 30 or more points in nine consecutive games. Embiid should be rested and raring to go after sitting out the fourth quarter in the 76ers' 141-121 blowout victory against the Pacers this past Saturday. The Bulls are 4-1 in their last five games, although they needed a lot of good fortune to pull out a double overtime home win against the Timberwolves two games ago. The Timberwolves lost Anthony Edwards early in the game. This is Chicago's third game in four days and fourth game in six days. It's the Bulls' first road game in nine days. The Bulls are 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight away matchups. Philadelphia has been dominant at home with a 26-10 record. The 76ers have covered seven of the last nine times they've hosted Chicago. The 76ers had covered eight in a row against Chicago until that January defeat. |
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03-20-23 | Radford v. San Jose State -6.5 | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
I like San Jose State to win this College Basketball Invitational matchup by double-digits. The Spartans play in the superior conference being in the Mountain West Conference compared to Radford, which finished third in the Big South Conference. San Jose State plays strong defense, is in better current form than Radford, is the superior rebounding team and much better at the free throw line. San Jose State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Spartans have been playing tremendous defense giving up an average of 58.8 points during their last seven games. Radford averages fewer than 70 points a game. The Highlanders are 290th in free throw percentage at 68.8 percent. Radford has a losing record in its last seven games. San Jose State has been a reliable point spread team covering 20 of its last 28 games for 71 percent. |
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03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU. Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent. I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy. TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory. |
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03-19-23 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Rockets | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
The Pelicans won't be taking the 18-52 Rockets lightly. Just the opposite. Houston upset New Orleans, 114-112, at home this past Friday. New Orleans may have suffered from overconfidence in building a 16-point second-half lead. It was the first time during the past six meetings Houston covered against New Orleans. The Pelicans are fighting to make the postseason. They can't take a second straight loss to the lowly Rockets. New Orleans has the two best players on the court in Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas. The Rockets are 5-14 in their last 19 games. They are on a season-best three-game win streak. The Pelicans have excelled in these spots, though. They are 18-7-1 ATS (72 percent) the last 26 times playing a foe with a winning percentage below .400. |
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03-18-23 | Penn State +5.5 v. Texas | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
Penn State has the right combination to upset Texas. The Nittany Lions are peaking at the perfect time going 9-2 in their last 11 games, covering in their past five matchup. The Nittany Lions have a great guard in Jalen Pickett. They have veterans who don't get rattled and are tremendous as underdogs covering the past nine times in that role. Penn State also is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 SU the past seven times they've played a tournament team. The pressure is all on Texas. The Longhorns haven't responded well before to this type of pressure going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry lacks NCAA Tournament experience. So that's a question mark. Penn State is 21-8-1 (72 percent) ATS the past 30 times when playing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-18-23 | Auburn +5.5 v. Houston | 64-81 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Houston may be the top seed in the Midwest Regional, but the Cougars are in trouble against Auburn. The Cougars haven't been playing well going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. They lost by 10 points to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Tournament title game and only beat 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky, 63-52, this past Thursday in their first-round NCAA Tournament game. Star guard Marcus Sasser aggravated a groin injury against Northern Kentucky. His status is questionable. Jamal Shead, Houston's top assists player, also isn't 100 percent with a knee injury. Auburn is a tough opponent for the Cougars. The Tigers are playing excellent defense, not turning the ball over and are battle tested having dealt with upper tier competition being in the SEC. Auburn beat Iowa, 83-75, to win its 11th straight opening-round NCAA Tournament game. The Tigers took No. 1 ranked Alabama to overtime on the road and beat Tennessee by nine points during their last two regular season games. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. |
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03-17-23 | Wolves +3 v. Bulls | 131-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
The 35-35 Timberwolves are a better team than the 31-37 Bulls. The question is can the Timberwolves beat the Bulls on the road? I'll take these points to find out. Minnesota is in better current form and has been playing well on the road. The Bulls have lost their last three home games, falling to the Kings this past Wednesday, Pacers and Suns. Chicago is 2-3 in its last five games. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS the past nine times following a loss. Minnesota is off a tough, 104-102, home loss to the Celtics this past Wednesday. The Timberwolves were whisted for four technical fouls in the loss. They held Boston to 13 points below its season average. Despite that tough loss, the Timberwolves are 4-3 in their last seven games. They've won their last three road games defeating the Hawks, Lakers and Clippers. They also are 4-0 ATS the past four times as a 'dog and are 9-3 ATS following a loss. |
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03-17-23 | Providence v. Kentucky -4 | 53-61 | Win | 100 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
I want to back teams with momentum in the NCAA Tournament. Providence certainly doesn't have that. The Friars have lost and failed to cover their last three games. They are 1-4 in their last five games, including suffering blowout losses to Seton Hall and Connecticut. Kentucky was shocked by Saint Peter's in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. I don't see the Wildcats letting that happen a second straight year. The Wildcats are 5-2 in their last seven games with the two losses both coming to Vanderbilt. The Wildcats' last four victories have been against Arkansas, Auburn, Florida and Tennessee - all by eight or more points.
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03-16-23 | Seattle Kraken -1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
I see this as a kill spot for Seattle. The Kraken are off three straight home losses. Now they go on the road to play the Sharks, who have by far the worst home mark in the NHL at 6-19-9. The Kraken have played much better on the road going 21-9-3. They've won their last four road games. Their last road defeat occurred to the Sharks, 4-0, on Feb. 20. So no chance the revenge-minded Kraken take the Sharks lightly. Motivation, on the other hand, could be difficult for the Sharks. They just were eliminated from playoff contention for the fourth straight season following a 6-5 home overtime loss to the Blue Jackets. |
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03-16-23 | Pacers +14 v. Bucks | 139-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
It's going to take a lot of points for me to pick against the Bucks. But the combination of getting enough points and the situation put me on the Pacers. The Bucks just concluded a three-game West Coast trip late Tuesday night. They beat the Kings on Monday in a physical game that turned ugly at the end when Brook Lopez had to play enforcer after Trey Lyles committed a cheap shot foul on Giannis Antetokounmpo during the final seconds. The Bucks then scored a satisfying victory against the Suns on Tuesday playing without rest. Now Milwaukee returns home to face the Pacers. The Bucks can't be faulted for feeling good about themselves - and taking this opponent lightly. Milwaukee has beaten Indiana 10 straight times. The Pacers are coming off a 117-97 road loss to the Pistons this past Monday. Indiana was trying to sweep the lowly Pistons without its best players. The Pacers defeated the Pistons this past Saturday, but couldn't do it again minus Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and backup point guard T.J. McConnell. I expect all three of those players to be in Indiana's lineup today. They all practiced on Wednesday. The Pacers had covered four consecutive road games before that Monday defeat to the Pistons. |
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03-16-23 | Colgate v. Texas -13 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. |
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03-16-23 | Utah State v. Missouri +1.5 | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
Utah State and Missouri are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. Utah State averages 79.1 points while the Tigers average 80.1 points. Because Missouri is the superior team. I largely base this opinion on the quality of opponents each team has played. Utah State finishing second in the Mountain West Conference doesn't impress me as much as Missouri finishing fourth in the SEC. Missouri also has a number of significant victories that Utah State lacks. The Tigers have the potential to go far in this tournament. Something I can't envision for Utah State. Missouri struggled against high-level, elite talent teams such as Alabama and Kansas. Utah State isn't nearly in that class. The Tigers scored numerous impressive victories that Utah State didn't achieve. I point to the Tigers scoring 93 points in an 18-point neutral court win against Illinois, scoring 78 points in a 17-point win against Iowa State and beating Tennessee twice, including posting 86 points against the Volunteers on the road. Missouri is 22-0 this season when scoring at least 70 points. Utah State allows an average of 70 points a game. The Aggies also rank 294th in defensive 3-point percentage. Missouri can exploit that. |
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03-15-23 | Lakers -2.5 v. Rockets | 110-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
The Lakers are playing without rest after burying the Pelicans last night and won't have LeBron James nor Anthony Davis. But this spread is low enough to back LA against the Rockets, who are 3-14 in their last 17 games. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS the past five times on zero rest. They've covered in five of their last six visits to Houston. The Rockets are in a rare letdown spot after shocking the Celtics, 111-109, at home two days ago. The Lakers should have their full intensity knowing the Rockets beat the Celtics and not having their two superstar players to rely on. |
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03-15-23 | UCF +2.5 v. Florida | Top | 67-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State. The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival. The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points. |
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03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi -3.5 v. SE Missouri State | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
Credit to Southeast Missouri State capturing the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as a No. 5 seed. But I don't see the Redhawks getting past Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Texas A&M Corpus Christi is hot, winning 12 of its last 13 games, and are battle tested. The Islanders captured the Southland Conference Tournament title for the second year in a row. They also won the regular season championship. Southeast Missouri State last made the NCAA Tournament 23 years ago. Both teams play fast and can score. The big difference is at the free throw line. Southeast Missouri State ranks 226th in free throw percentage. The Islanders rank fifth in the nation in free throw percentage at 79.1 percent. |
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03-13-23 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +2 | Top | 104-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
I want the Mavericks going for me here at home in short revenge against the Grizzlies, who are much worse on the road than they are at home. The teams just met this past Saturday night in Memphis. The Mavericks put on a gutty show playing without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Grizzlies came from behind to win, 112-108. It took a career-high 24 points from rookie David Roddy off the bench for the Grizzlies to produce the victory. Doncic is questionable. It's a bonus if he plays, but I'm not counting on that. But Irving is expected to play. Ja Morant remains out for Memphis. Dallas is 22-13 at home. Memphis is 12-21 on the road. The Grizzlies are 7-21-1 the past 29 times when playing an opponent with a winning home record. They have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 overall road contests. Memphis also is 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Dallas.
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03-12-23 | Thunder -3 v. Spurs | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
This may be the only time I write this for the rest of the season, but the Spurs are actually fat and happy. They are coming off a shocking, 128-120, win against the Nuggets this past Friday. Oklahoma City won't be overlooking the Spurs now for sure. The Thunder are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA. San Antonio is the worst defensive team in the league by far. The Thunder are in the playoff picture. They've won four of their last five games, including beating the Pelicans, 110-96, in New Orleans last night. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Thunder since they were idle the previous two days prior to that win. The teams have met twice so far this season. The Thunder won those games by 16 and 8 points, respectively. |
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03-12-23 | Memphis +6 v. Houston | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points. Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game. The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points. Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation. A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points. |
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03-11-23 | CS-Fullerton v. UC-Santa Barbara -3.5 | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Santa Barbara is riding a lot of momentum and had the easier path to reach this game. The Gauchos have won their last six games going 5-0-1 ATS. Cal-State Fullerton had to go overtime to beat Hawaii this past Thursday and then upset Cal-Irvine in a tough game last night. These teams are close defensively, but the Gauchos shoot the ball far better than the Titans. |
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03-11-23 | Kings v. Suns -3 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The Suns don't need Kevin Durant to cover this small home point spread. Phoenix is 5-1 in its last six games. The Suns' lone loss during this span came to the Bucks by three points on the road. Phoenix's average winning margin during this time frame is 15.8 points. The Suns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Devin Booker is on fire averaging 38 points during his last four games. The Kings are much improved. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox are having superstar-type seasons. But the Kings are not an elite team. They are off a 122-117 home win against the Knicks two days ago where they were outrebounded, 58-42. The Suns defeated the Kings, 120-109, in the team's last meeting on Feb. 14. Phoenix also beat the Kings on the road by five points in the first meeting this season. |
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03-10-23 | Grand Canyon v. Sam Houston State -2.5 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. |
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03-09-23 | Knicks +2.5 v. Kings | 117-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
The Knicks are tied for the best road record in the NBA at 20-12. New York just suffered its first loss since Feb. 10, ambushed by the Hornets at home this past Tuesday. That ended the Knicks' nine-game win streak. The Knicks had just beaten the Celtics in double-overtime at Boston prior to meeting the Knicks. The Knicks ran out of gas against the Hornets after leading by 16 points at halftime. Now the Knicks have regrouped and gotten their focus back. This is the first of four games on the West Coast for the Knicks. I'm expecting a strong effort following that surprising loss to the double-digit underdog Hornets. The Kings are expected to get De'Aaron Fox back from a hamstring injury. But the Knicks could get back their star point guard, Jalen Brunson, from a foot injury. He made the trip to Sacramento. The Knicks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 away games. |
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03-09-23 | San Jose State v. Nevada -5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road. I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas. Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games. San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team. Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside. |
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03-09-23 | Washington State +3 v. Oregon | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Washington State is peaking at the right time. The Cougars have won their last seven games. I like their chances against Oregon, which hasn't played in five days, in this Pac-12 Conference Tournament matchup. Oregon has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 neutral site games. The teams just met on Feb. 19 at Washington State and the Cougars won, 68-65. |
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03-08-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +2.5 | 65-57 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
I get that it's been a very disappointing season for Wisconsin, who are 17-13 and went 9-11 in the Big Ten. But the Badgers underdogs to Ohio State? No way. The Buckeyes are 13-18, 5-15 in the Big Ten. They had a prolonged stretch where they went 1-14 in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes aren't winning five games in five days through the Big Ten Conference Tournament gauntlet to make the NCAA Tournament - and they know it. Wisconsin is capable of beating any team, something Ohio State isn't. The Badgers defeated sixth-ranked Marquette and took third-ranked Kansas to overtime. The Badgers are a bubble team. They know they must win at least the next three games to stay in realistic contention for an NCAA Tournament bid. The Badgers have an elite defense, giving up 63.8 points. That ranks them 33rd in the nation and is six points fewer per game than Ohio State allows. Wisconsin holds a big coaching edge, too, with Greg Gard against Chris Holtmann. The teams met once during the regular season. The Badgers beat the Buckeyes, 65-60, at Ohio State. Now they're playing at a neutral site. |
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03-07-23 | Hornets +10 v. Knicks | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Knicks are generating headlines with nine wins in a row, the last coming in double-overtime on the road against the Celtics two days ago. No one is talking about the Hornets. Not that they should be. Charlotte doesn't have injured star point guard LaMelo Ball and has dropped three in a row. However, this situation lays out well for the Hornets to keep within double-digits of New York. The Knicks are playing for the seventh time in 12 days. Their last four games have been against four long-time rivals - Celtics, Nets, Heat and Celtics again. They nipped the Heat and Celtics on the road by two points each in their last two games. Now the Knicks return to Madison Square Garden fat and happy. They will go on a four-game West Coast trip that begins Thursday following this matchup. This is a real flat spot for the Knicks, who could be without their own star point guard, Jalen Brunson. He's questionable with an ankle injury. Despite not having Ball, the Hornets are capable. Charlotte usually plays with effort and energy for Steve Clifford. The Hornets have held four of their last five opponents to 106 points or fewer. Ball was their leading scorer. But Kelly Oubre Jr. and Terry Rozier both average more than 20 points a game. Dennis Smith is a capable veteran point guard. He's also a former Knick. The Hornets have covered five of the last seven times when playing the Knicks on the road. |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
The Raptors are a mediocre Eastern Conference club that has a losing record on the season, mainly because of a 12-20 road mark. Only once have the Raptors played an above .500 team during their last 10 games. That was a road game against the Cavaliers. Cleveland buried the Raptors, 118-93. Denver is 29-4 at home. The Nuggets have lost once at home since Dec. 6. Denver has won each of its last seven home games by nine or more points. So why should this home matchup be any different? It shouldn't. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and that includes covering against the Wizards in overtime this past Saturday. The Raptors have failed to cover on the road against the Nuggets in six of their last seven visits. Playing in Denver's thin mountain air isn't going to help them coming off a Saturday night overtime game that was played on the East Coast. The Nuggets have covered each of the last six times they've hosted an opponent with a below .500 road record. |
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03-06-23 | Idaho State v. Montana -5 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible. Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament. Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court. The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road. |
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03-05-23 | Wisconsin -5 v. Minnesota | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Barring the unlikely possibility of winning the Big Ten Conference Tournament, Wisconsin better win this game if it has any chance of earning an NCAA Tourney bid. The Badgers are 16-13 with a lot of close losses, including a 63-61 home loss to fifth-ranked Purdue this past Thursday. Wisconsin should take care of business against Minnesota, a team it has defeated 14 of the last 16 times, including the past five. The Badgers are 5-0 ATS following a loss. Minnesota, 2-16 in the Big Ten, is in a rare fat-and-happy mood having ended a 12-game losing streak with a 75-74 home upset win against Rutgers this past Thursday. |
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03-05-23 | Warriors v. Lakers +5.5 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
After missing the past 11 games with a knee injury, Stephen Curry is set to return here against the Lakers. Aside from Curry likely to be rusty, the Lakers are in must-win mode and catch the Warriors fat and happy after Golden State just swept its five-game homestand. So this spot sets up for the underdog Lakers especially given the Warriors' Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde home/road performances. Golden State is 27-7 at home and 7-23 on the road. The Lakers can't afford to lose home games like they did to the Timberwolves this past Friday. They did get Anthony Davis back for that. I'm expecting a much more focused and intense effort from the Lakers. The Warriors are playing for the seventh time in 11 days. Every one of their five victories during their recent homestand were come-from-behind wins with four of those games involving double-digit comebacks. Golden State isn't going to be able to turn the switch on and off like that being on the road, where it has lost the past five times going 0-4-1 ATS. |
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03-04-23 | UNLV v. Nevada -8 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday. If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games. So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada. The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory. |
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03-03-23 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
The handicap here is very straightforward. Denver is extremely tough at home and in short revenge. The Grizzlies are terrible on the road. The Nuggets are 28-4 at home. Their last loss at Ball Arena came on Dec. 6. They've been idle since Tuesday and have revenge for an 18-point road loss to the Grizzlies suffered six days ago. The Grizzlies are 12-18 on the road. Until they beat the bottom-feeding Rockets in Houston two days ago, the Grizzlies had lost eight consecutive away games going 1-7 ATS in those matchups. |
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03-03-23 | Nebraska-Omaha v. UMKC +1.5 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup. UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31. The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks. UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell. |
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03-03-23 | The Citadel v. Mercer -6 | 41-66 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Mercer has become much improved defensively. So this is a good matchup for the Bears because The Citadel is very bad offensively and not good either on defense giving up nearly 75 points a game. The teams just met on Feb. 25. Mercer held the Bulldogs to 50 points in a 22-point victory. Mercer also defeated The Citadel in the first meeting, 74-65, on the road. It's clear who the better team is here. |
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03-02-23 | Cal-Irvine +1 v. Cal-Riverside | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Cal Irvine is 36 teams above UC Riverside in the KenPom rankings. I agree with that assessment. I have the Anteaters as the better team, too. They destroyed the Highlanders, 83-64, as 6 1/2-point home favorites on Feb. 11. Cal Irvine has the second-best offense in the Big West and surrenders fewer points per game than UC Riverside. The Anteaters also have dominated the Highlanders winning and covering during the past five meetings. They've also gone 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS the last eight times when playing at UC Riverside. |
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03-02-23 | Rider -3 v. St. Peter's | 73-60 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
Rider is a much better team than St. Peter's. Rider is 12-6 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference while St. Peter's is 6-12 in league. It's not just the conference records either. The Broncos buried the Peacocks, 82-61, at home on Feb. 3. Both teams are tough defensively. But St. Peter's can't score. The Peacocks average 61.3 points a game, which ranks 354th. They also are 362nd in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point shooting percentage in addition to being well below average in free throw shooting. I'm not putting any stock in St. Peter's being home either. The Peacocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests while Rider has covered its last five away games. |
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03-01-23 | Lakers +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
After winning three in a row, the Lakers lost LeBron James and then lost to the Grizzlies, 121-109, last night in their first game without James. James remains out. But I believe the Lakers bounce back in this revenge spot against the Thunder. The Lakers have had a game to adjust to James' absence. Oklahoma City also is without its own LeBron James with All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined. He's missed the Thunder's past three games due to an abdominal strain and a right ankle injury. Oklahoma City is 0-3 in those games losing by nine points to the Suns and suffering losses to the Kings by nine and six points. The Thunder have allowed 123, 124 and 124 points in their past three games. LA is the better defensive team. The teams met on Feb. 7. James broke the NBA's all-time scoring record in that game, but the Thunder won. The Lakers haven't forgotten. They are a better all-around team following the trade deadline minus Russell Westbrook and with the addition of several good rotation players. |
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03-01-23 | Richmond v. St. Joe's +2 | 67-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
If you're into bad Atlantic 10 Conference games then this is a good matchup. I'm involved because I don't believe St. Joe's should be a home 'dog to Richmond. The Spiders could have the worst offense in the A-10. They also are terrible on the road failing to cover in 10 of their last 11 away games. Overall, Richmond is 2-10 ATS in its past dozen games. St. Joe's, by contrast, is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Hawks outscore the Spiders and do a good job of not turning the ball over. They often are undervalued, like this time, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. |
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03-01-23 | Charleston Southern v. High Point -1 | 72-70 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
The Big South Conference Tournament isn't exactly a big deal. But good spots can be found. This is one of them as High Point is playing much better than Charleston Southern and is the superior team so the price certainly is right to back the Panthers. High Point brings momentum into the tournament winning four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS. That's not the case for Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers are 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. Charleston Southern is the worst defensive team in the Big South. How bad defensively are the Buccaneers? They rank 304th in scoring defense nationally, 328th in defensive field goal percentage and 330th in 3-point defense. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS the past 11 times when facing a below .400 opponent, which the 9-20 Buccaneers are. High Point beat Charleston Southern, 81-73, at home when the teams last played on Feb. 6. |
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02-28-23 | Ball State +8.5 v. Akron | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63. Now look at the line. This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games. The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games. The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category. |
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02-26-23 | Washington +6 v. Stanford | Top | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this. So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12. Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three. The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense. |
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02-25-23 | Heat -5.5 v. Hornets | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
The Heat are in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. They were embarrassed by the Bucks, 128-99, last night in Milwaukee. Charlotte, on the other hand, is fat and happy having won three straight after beating the Timberwolves, 121-113, on the road last night. Miami is the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 28th defensively allowing 10 more points per game than the Heat. The Hornets usually fail to step up against better teams, too, with a 12-25 record versus above .500 opponents. |
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02-24-23 | Nevada -3 v. Fresno State | 60-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Just three games ago, Nevada handled Fresno State winning, 77-66, as a nine-point home favorite. Fresno State is playing better and is home. But the point spread is still too short. Fresno State only averages 61.7 points. That's 351st. Nevada should reach 70 points just like it did two weeks ago against the Bulldogs. Fresno State is 1-6 when giving up 70-plus points. The Bulldogs' key is their pressure defense. They rank second in the Mountain West Conference in creating takeaways. Nevada, however, ranks 27th in the nation in fewest turnover percentage. They turned the ball over just 10 times in the first meeting against the Bulldogs. |
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02-24-23 | Rockets v. Warriors -10 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
I want the Warriors going for me after they lost on the road to the Lakers last night in their first game back from All-Star break. Golden State is home where it has played far better with a 22-7 mark. The Warriors also have the advantage of having had a game following All-Star break. Houston's last game was nine days ago. The Rockets entered the break having lost seven in a row. Their last two games - both on the road - were a 19-point loss to the 76ers and a 37-point defeat to the Thunder. Golden State is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA at 118.5 points a game. The Rockets rank 26th defensively and 29th in scoring. Stephen Curry remains out, but Houston is minus its two leading scorers, Kevin Porter Jr. (foot) and Jalen Green (groin). Defense and a 7-23 road record have been the killers for Golden State. But the Warriors are home here and have made a commitment and priority to playing stronger defense having had ample time during the All-Star break. It's not like the Warriors aren't capable. They had the No. 2 defense last season. |
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02-23-23 | Spurs +14.5 v. Mavs | 116-142 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are an auto-fade when laying these kinds of points. Dallas is a mind-boggling 4-20-1 ATS (17 percent) when favored by more than five points this season. San Antonio nearly upset Dallas in the first meeting. The Spurs lost, 126-125, at home on Dec. 31. The Spurs are on their rodeo trip, but will be rested following the week-long All-Star break. Gregg Popovich should have his team well prepared for this in-state, division rivalry matchup. This will be just the third time Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic will be playing together. So the Mavericks aren't fully in sync yet with their new lineup. |
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02-22-23 | Virginia -9 v. Boston College | 48-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
After two close calls in their last two games, look for Virginia to cover this point spread margin with a double-digit victory. Boston College is in a letdown spot after an upset road win against Florida State. The Cavaliers have dominated this series winning 10 of the last 11 times, including 76-57 on Jan. 28. |
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02-21-23 | Iowa State +8 v. Texas | Top | 54-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points. Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close. Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory. Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here. |
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02-21-23 | Mississippi State +4.5 v. Missouri | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
Since upsetting Tennessee, Missouri has lost and failed to cover its last two games. Mississippi State is just as good - if not better - than the Tigers. So I'll take the Bulldogs getting this many points. The Bulldogs have come on after a slow SEC start to go 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven league games, including posting road victories against South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi during their last three SEC away games. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their past five road contests. The teams met on Feb. 4 and Mississippi State held Missouri to a season-low in points in a 63-52 home victory. Take away their victory against Tennessee and the Tigers would be 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games. |
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02-20-23 | Minnesota v. Illinois -14.5 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately. The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. |
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02-20-23 | South Carolina State v. Delaware State | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Delaware State defeated South Carolina State, 88-85, in overtime on the road in the first meeting on Jan. 23. Now the Bulldogs have to travel to Dover to play the Hornets. I like Delaware State's chances at this number considering South Carolina State has lost 11 consecutive road games. The Bulldogs have lost their past three away contests by an average of 18.6 points. The Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. They give up nine fewer points per game than South Carolina State. |
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02-20-23 | Howard -5.5 v. Morgan State | 76-89 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
I find this line short so I'm backing Howard, which has won nine in a row. The Bison have covered all but one of these games during their win streak. Morgan State is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games. The Bears have failed to cover in five of their last six games. This has been a road team series with the visitor cashing seven of the last eight times. |
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02-19-23 | UNLV v. Boise State -7 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos. So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State. The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games. Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line. The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11. |
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02-18-23 | Jacksonville +6.5 v. Lipscomb | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Going to the added board for this one. Jacksonville defeated Lipscomb, 51-44, when the teams met earlier this season. The Dolphins have the defense and slow tempo to frustrate the Bison again. The Dolphins rank in the top 40 in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They give up fewer than 63 points a game. Jacksonville is not a high-scoring team. However, Lipscomb's defense has slipped recently. The Bison are giving up an average of 83.6 points in regulation during their last three games. |
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02-18-23 | Nevada +4.5 v. Utah State | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
I see value taking this many points with Nevada. The Wolf Pack rolled past Utah State, 85-70, earlier this season. A key for the Wolf Pack in that victory was holding the Aggies to 8-of-22 (36.4 percent) shooting from 3-point range. Utah State is the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country at 41.1 percent. Nevada is in excellent form with four straight wins and covers. The Wolf Pack also are well-rested having last played eight days ago. They beat New Mexico on the road in their previous away game. Utah State is 1-7 ATS the past eight times facing an above .500 opponent.
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02-18-23 | Gonzaga v. Pepperdine +16.5 | 97-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Pepperdine is playing better, covering its last three games. But the main basis of this handicap is fading Gonzaga at this high of a point spread. Gonzaga is letdown mode after destroying Loyola Marymount, 108-65, this past Thursday. That was a huge revenge for the Bulldogs, who were stunned by Loyola Marymount in their first meeting. Gonzaga had won 75 straight home games until that loss. I don't see the Bulldogs having their full focus and intensity for this one.
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02-17-23 | Yale v. Pennsylvania +3.5 | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Both teams are playing well. But I see Penn having the greater urgency being in revenge mode and trailing Yale by one game in the Ivy League standing. The Quakers have won their last five games. They are 4-1-1 ATS during their past six games and have the best player on the court, Jordan Dingle. He leads the Ivy League in scoring by a wide margin at 24 points per game. Penn has revenge for a 70-63 loss to Yale earlier this season. I make the game pick, so getting this many points is a bonus and puts me in play. |
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02-16-23 | Eastern Illinois v. SE Missouri State -8 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams. The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28. SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC. The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game. I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made. |
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02-16-23 | Bucks -7.5 v. Bulls | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
The Bucks have won 11 in a row. The Bulls, by contrast, are reeling, losing and failing to cover in their last five games. Milwaukee didn't play well in its last game, having to go to overtime at home to dispatch a short-handed Celtics squad. This is the Bucks' final game before the All-Star break. They won't play again in eight days. So expect a strong, focused effort from the Bucks, especially in revenge mode. The Bulls won the last meeting, 119-113 in overtime, on Dec. 29 That should ensure a double-digit Milwaukee victory. The Bulls also won't have their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan. He's out with a quad injury. |
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02-15-23 | Lightning v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
The Coyotes are not a good team. But they are respectable at home going 11-8-2 at their new temporary home, Mullett Arena. They have won four of their last six home games and are capable of beating any team at Mullett Arena having proven that with victories against the Bruins, Maple Leafs and Avalanche. Mullett Arena is a 5,000-seat arena on the Arizona State campus. It is not a normal NHL arena because of its small size. Fans are right on top of the players. Opponents of the Coyotes are not used to this, especially when playing there for the first time. Tampa Bay fits that category. The Lightning probably won't take to the ice until pre-game warmups because they aren't likely to have a morning skate after playing Tuesday night. And what a game the Lightning had last night in Colorado. Tampa Bay edged the Avalanche, 4-3, in a shootout. The game had the intensity of a playoff matchup. I doubt the Lightning will go with star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy in the second of back-to-back games. Tampa Bay's next game is much bigger on the road against the Golden Knights. There's a monster drop off from Vasilevskiy to backup goalie Brian Elliott. So that would be another plus for the Coyotes. I would recommend taking the Coyotes to win the first period, too, at around a nice plus $1.50 price. The Coyotes have yet to be outscored during the first period in five previous situations where an opponent was playing at Mullett Arena for the first time after playing the day before. |
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02-15-23 | Heat +1.5 v. Nets | 105-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Brooklyn is ahead of Miami in the standings. But the Heat are the better team right now. The Nets are going through a transformation with a retooled roster. Brooklyn won 27 of its first 40 games. Then Durant got hurt. Since then, the Net are 6-11. Brooklyn has four new people in its rotation learning life without Durant and Kyrie Irving. while also finding out Ben Simmons is nearly worthless. The Nets are averaging just 102 points in their last two games. Miami is the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. |
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02-14-23 | Wyoming v. New Mexico -10 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
I am getting behind New Mexico. The Lobos are in stop-the-pain mode having dropped three in a row. This is their time to get right hosting 7-17 Wyoming, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. Wyoming has lost and failed to cover in its last three games suffering double-digit defeats to San Jose State, UNLV and Boise State during this span. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. New Mexico is 5-1 ATS the last six times hosting opponents with a road percentage of less than .400. The Cowboys rank 249th in scoring defense and 311th in defensive field goal percentage. That's bad news going against the high-scoring Lobos. New Mexico averages 81.6 points a game, which ranks 16th in the nation. The Lobos also are 11th in the country in field goal percentage. |
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02-14-23 | Illinois v. Penn State +3.5 | 81-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Illinois is stepping up, winning eight of its last 10 games. But Penn State is tough at home and this is a circle-the-wagons game for the Nittany Lions. Penn State has dropped four in a row. The latest being a loss - but a cover - in a road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Nittany Lions have won seven of their last eight home games. During this span, the Nittany Lions have defeated Michigan, Indiana and Iowa. Their lone home defeat during this time frame was to Wisconsin in overtime. The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS following a loss. Penn State should play the Illini with confidence. The Nittany Lions won the first matchup, winning by 15 points on the road in mid-December. |
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02-13-23 | Wolves +8 v. Mavs | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
Kyrie Irving teaming up with Luka Doncic to make his Dallas home debut is the major storyline here. What's not in the headlines is this being a dangerous spot for Dallas. The Mavericks last played at home 11 days ago. This marks their fourth game in six days and third game in four days. Irving is going to be a distraction. So the Mavericks' concentration level could be off. Minnesota just got blown out, 128-107, by the Grizzlies this past Friday. This is the conclusion of the Timberwolves' four-game road trip. Minnesota had the weekend to rest up and prepare for this matchup. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Timberwolves, who are 6-0 ATS following a loss. The Timberwolves upgraded themselves, too, at the trade deadline picking up veteran point guard Mike Conley. Dallas has the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 22-34-2. The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when laying seven or more points. |
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02-13-23 | Hawks -5 v. Hornets | Top | 138-144 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
The Hawks want to make a mark before All-Star break hits. The Hornets can't wait until the All-Star break. Atlanta should be all business here, having won four of its last six games, including the past two. The Hawks just rolled past the hapless Spurs, 125-106, this past Saturday. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times when playing on one day rest. The 15-43 Hornets are as bad as the Spurs. But the Hawks won't be taking them lightly. Charlotte leads the season series, 2-1. This is what Hawks coach Nate McMillan said about Charlotte, ''They've kicked us twice. We need to go get that game in their building.'' The Hornets have lost seven in a row. They have failed to cover in their last six games. All of the losses during their seven-game loss streak have been by six or more points. The Hornets are vulnerable and inexperienced inside after dealing their one decent low-post player, Mason Plumlee. The Hornets rely on their perimeter game and that's been off, too, as they've made fewer than 10 3-point shots during eight of their past 11 games. Charlotte has lost 18 of its 25 home games. The Hornets have failed to cover in seven of their past nine home contests. |
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02-12-23 | SMU v. Wichita State -6.5 | 89-91 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
Given how bad SMU is on the road, I find this line to be short. Wichita State is the superior team and home. That's huge because SMU is 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS away from home this season. The Mustangs average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank among the bottom 50 teams in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point shooting. Wichita State is 14th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Shockers have defeated the Mustangs six consecutive times, including 73-65 on the road last month. |