Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's -6 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
So much for the Pac-12. All the teams from that conference are gone now except Utah. That should tell you something about the strength of the Pac-12 and after tonight I don't see any Pac-12 team standing. Saint Mary's should have made the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels are 18-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. The question with Saint Mary's isn't talent, but motivation. The Gaels have three key seniors. It's obvious now that the Gaels are out to prove the NCAA Tournament committee wrong by winning the NIT. They buried Southeast Louisiana, 89-45, in their NIT opener. The Gaels got their lackluster performance out of the way in getting past Washington, 85-81, two nights ago. I expect the Gaels to be sharper against Utah, another Pac-12 team. Saint Mary's has covered 12 of the last 17 times when playing a Pac-12 foe. Utah lives and die with its perimeter shooting especially from 3-point range. Saint Mary's ranks 14th in the country in scoring defense and 22nd in 3-point percentage defense. Utah is hurt by a rule change in the NIT that stretches the distance to score on a 3-point shot. The Gaels, led by center Jock Landale, are the most accurate shooting team in the nation. I don't see the Utes being able to stay with them.
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03-21-18 | Wizards +5 v. Spurs | 90-98 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a down season for the Spurs. They aren't more talented than the Wizards. Washington is one of the better road teams in the league. The Wizards have won and covered 57 percent of their away matchups, including five of their last seven. Both teams are minus their superstar. But the Spurs miss Kawhi Leonard more than Washington misses John Wall. The Wizards actually get better movement without Wall since they have the highest percentage of assists in the league during the past 22 games. The Wizards also have been No. 1 in assists per game since Jan. 27. The Wizards enter this matchup in good form having defeated two of the five best teams in the NBA, Boston and Indiana, during their last two games. The Wizards should be rested and ready having last been in action on Saturday. San Antonio is 4-0 on its homestand with a bigger game home game looming on Friday versus Utah. The Spurs beat the Warrors, 89-75, in their last game this past Monday. That victory, though, isn't nearly as impressive as it might seem. Golden State was without Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors then lost Draymond Green to a pelvic injury in the first half. He didn't return. So the value is with the Wizards.
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03-21-18 | Canadiens v. Penguins -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 130 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Montreal is playing the string out in the midst of another non playoff season. The Canadiens have been shut out in their last two games. But the big news here for the Canadiens is the expected return of Carey Price in net. That may sound good on the surface, but Price wasn't having a strong season when he suffered a concussion. This will be his first game since Feb. 20. Price figures to be very rusty. He also will be seeing a lot of young players in front of him and no stalwart defenseman Shea Weber, who is out for the year. Montreal has lost 22 of its last 28 games versus Eastern Conference foes. So I'm not expecting much from the dead Canadiens here. Neither is the oddsmaker with this large of a price. My strategy is to turn this into a plus profit by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. The Penguins didn't play that well two games ago when they met the Canadiens in Montreal this past Thursday. Yet they still won by two goals. After that game the Penguins played the Islanders on the road. That was last night and the Islanders, a huge underdog, stunned the Penguins winning 4-1. I'm expecting a strong bouce back effort from Pittsburgh. There should not be a fatigue factor either as the Penguins' previous game before last night was back on Thursday against the Canadiens. The Penguins are 26-8-1 at home this season and Matt Murray is back in net for them after missing three weeks with a concussion. The Penguins usually crush weak foes going 8-1 the past nine times versus below .400 opponents.
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03-20-18 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 104 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on for the Golden Knights after a 4-0 victory against the Flames this past Sunday. That halted a four-game home losing streak for Las Vegas. The Golden Knights should be back on track as this concludes their four-game homestand. Vancouver has become the worst team in the league since losing its leading scorer and sparkplug, rookie Brock Boeser. Since Boeser suffered a possible season-ending back injury, the Canucks have gone 0-6 scoring six goals in those six games. Las Vegas is 2-0 versus Vancouver defeating the Canucks 5-2 on the road and 6-3 at home. A similar three-goal victory wouldn't be in the least bit surprising.
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03-20-18 | Clippers v. Wolves -3 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Injuries and the toll of a long season are going to cause the Clippers to probably miss the playoffs. LA has lost three in a row and looked extremely fatigued in a 122-109 home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Sunday. Now the Clippers are playing for the fourth time in six days - all at different venues. The Clippers are minus their two best backcourt defenders, Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. Both are out for the season. Sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari is sidelined, too. Minnesota is trying to make the Western Conference playoffs, too, and is very strong at home going 26-9 at Target Center. The Timberwolves have defeated the Clippers the past five times. They are 2-0 versus LA this season with both victories coming at Staples Center by an averaging winning margin of seven points.
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03-19-18 | Washington +11 v. St. Mary's | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
Saint Mary's definitely deserved to make the NCAA Tournament. But the Gaels aren't a great team. They are down from past seasons. The Gaels played a very weak non-conference schedule, barely beat Pepperdine in the first round of the West Coast Conference Tournament and then were blown out in the semifinals by BYU. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Washington can match up to the Gaels being the more athletic team and having strong guard play headed by Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle. The Huskies are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Part of why this line is so high is Saint Mary's being 17-1 at home this season. But the Gaels are not invincible at home. Gonzaga proved that with a 78-65 victory at Saint Mary's on Feb. 10. Saint Mary's also lost 84-79 to Washington State back on Nov. 24. Washington played Washington State twice and beat the Cougars twice by a combined 23 points.
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03-19-18 | Nuggets +2 v. Heat | 141-149 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Denver is a bad road team. But the Nuggets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season, catch the Heat in their first game back from a West Coast triple and have covered five of the last six times when playing in Miami. I'm expecting a strong effort from the Nuggets after their coach, Michael Malone, justifiably ripped them following a 101-94 road loss to Memphis. The Grizzlies had lost 19 in a row entering that matchup. The Nuggets aren't going to have guard Gary Harris, an underrated player and their leading scorer. But Miami might continue to be without Hassan Whiteside and Dwayne Wade. Whiteside leads the Heat in reboundings and blocked shots. He's maybe the premier rim protector in the Eastern Conference. Wade had helped key Miami's bench. Whiteside has missed the past four games. His absence could mean a big performance from Nikola Jokic, who is playing at a high level.
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03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Great job by Marshall upsetting Wichita State on Friday. That was the Thundering Herd's first NCAA Tournament victory. They are not going to get their second tournament win here, though. Not only are the Thundering Herd in a tough spot to get ready for this matchup following such a great win, but they have serious matchup problems against West Virginia. The Mountaineers hold huge edges athletically and in style of play with their pressure defense and strong senior backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles. Unlike Marshall, West Virginia is tournament tested, too, having reached the Sweet 16 last March where they nearly took out Gonzaga. Not only can Carter, who was tremendous in the Mountaineers' first-round victory against Murray State and its star, Jonathan Stark, slow down Marshall's top scoring threat, Jon Elmore, but Sagaba Konate gives West Virginia a strong inside defensive presence. The Mountaineers finished sixth in the nation in shot block percentage. West Virginia is at its best against non-conference opponents not familar with the Mountaineers' full-court, all-out pressing. The Big 12 was tough again this season and its coaches know West Virginia. The conference also had exception guard play. West Virginia is stepping way down here. I see a kill spot here.
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03-18-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10 | 43-50 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm still marveling at Maryland-Baltimore County's stunning upset of Virginia from two days ago. The Retrievers broke an 0-for-135 record of 16th seeds versus No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament by defeating the Cavaliers, 74-54. This is arguably the biggest upset in NCAA Tourney history. There is no way the Retrievers can come down from the heavens in such a short period to play a second consecutive perfect game to stay within single digits of emerging Kansas State. Maryland-Baltimore County was a 10-point underdog to Vermont in the championship game of the American East Conference Tournament. The Retrievers hit a long 3-point shot to pull out that win after losing to Vermont twice during the regular season by an average of 21.5 points. This is a team that was buried, 83-39, by Albany. The Retrievers clearly aren't in the class of Kansas State, a solid Big 12 team. The Wildcats are strong defensively particularly with their perimeter defense. The Retrievers lack the inside scoring game to hurt the Wildcats. Kansas State was most impressive, too, in its first-round tournament game holding Creighton to a season low in points in a 69-59 victory. It's an added plus if Dean Wade is able to play for the Wildcats after missing the win against Creighton.
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03-17-18 | Warriors -3 v. Suns | 124-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Much has changed for the Warriors since their 129-83 waltz against the Suns in the team's last meeting on Feb. 12. Namely Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are all out. Golden State is 1-3 in its last four games having just lost two days ago to the lowly Kings at home. But if there's a team worse than the Kings it's the Suns. They are 1-17 in their last 18 games, losers of seven in a row. Phoenix is 2-22 in its last 24 games and may not have its best player and only consistent, legitimate scorer, Devin Booker. He's questionable because of a sprained right hand that rendered him ineffective in the Suns' last game, a blowout loss to Utah. I see the Warriors digging deep to beat this lowly foe. Golden State has a deep bench and still has star foward Draymond Green and solid veterans Andre Iguodala, Nick Young, David West and Shaun Livingston. The Warriors' next game is at San Antonio on Monday. They don't play again after that until Friday when Curry might be able to return. So the Warriors should have a very strong focus for this matchup, which normally wouldn't be the case considering how weak the opponent is. |
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03-17-18 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
Seton Hall has four excellent senior starters, including one of the top rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado, plus an excellent starting sophomore guard, Myles Powell. These group of seniors are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. They earned their first Big Dance victory beating North Carolina State on Thursday to push their unbeaten point-streak to six in a row. They also got the moneky off their back in breaking through with an NCAA Tournament victory. This isn't a great Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled against Ivy League team Penn before closing out the Quakers with a 14-6 run. That won't happen against tournament-tested Seton Hall. One of the Pirates' strong points is their offensive rebound. One of Kansas' weakness is giving up offensive rebounds where it ranked 280th in the country. The taller Priates can limit Kansas' rebounding and thus blunt the Jayhawks' desire to play up-tempo and their aggressive in-transition style.
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03-17-18 | Senators v. Blue Jackets -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Columbus is playing its best hockey down the strentch. The Blue Jackets have won six in a row. They also own a six-game home win streak. Columbus has won by more than one goal during five of its last seven victories and has been dominant at home versus opponents with a winning percentage of less than .400 going 22-6. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has returned to top form. The Blue Jackets have given up two goals or fewer in four of their last six games and not more than three during regulation in this time span. Ottawa has been playing well, too, post three straight upset victories defeating the Panthers and Lightning on the road and the Stars at home last night, 3-2 in overtime. But the Senators aren't a good team - with a below average offense and the league's 30th-ranked defense - and carry a heavy fatigue rating. This is Ottawa's fourth game in six days and second in two days. The Senators are 1-5 the past six times when playing without rest. So I don't see the Senators winning a fourth consecutive game, something they haven't achieved all season.
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03-16-18 | New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson | 68-79 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
This is one of those No. 5 seeds versus No. 12 seeds that has seen so many upsets occur in the first round. I see this game fitting that upset pattern. I like having an underdog that has a coaching edge, is a strong rebounding team and plays very good defense. New Mexico State has all that going. The Aggies finished in the top-five in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Chris Jans has done a tremendous job in his first season as New Mexico State's coach. The Lobos proved they can step up in class knocking off Miami, Davidson and Illinois during a tough non-conference slate. They lost by just five to USC, a team better than Clemson no matter what the NCAA Tournament committee thinks. Clemson should not be this high of a seed. The Tigers built up their record by winning 15 of 16 home games. Their offense has gone downhill since their second leading scorer and rebounder, Dante Graham, suffered a season-ending injury in January.
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03-16-18 | College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Auburn couldn't get straighten out for the SEC Conference Tournament and I don't see the Tigers getting a much needed quick fix in this opening round NCAA Tournament game either. The Tigers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They were blasted by Alabama, 81-63, during the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It's clear now that Auburn way overachieved earlier in the season. This certainly is the wrong time to be playing your worst ball. The College of Charleston is just the opposite. The Cougars are riding tremendous mometum winning 14 of their last 15 games. Their lone defeat during this span occurred in overtime. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cougars win this game outright.
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03-15-18 | Montana v. Michigan -10 | Top | 47-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Michigan's John Beilein is my favorite college basketball coach now that Bo Ryan has retired. His Wolverines have tournament experience and plenty of rest having been idle for 10 days following winning the Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Wolverines achieved that in grand style winning four games in four days culminated by victories against Michigan State and Purdue during the last two days. Michigan's averaging winning margin against those two powerhouses was 10 points. Montana certainly isn't in the class of Purdue and Michigan State. The Grizzlies play in Big Sky Conference. They last participated in the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The last time they won a game in the Big Dance was 2006. The Grizzlies are 3-11 the last 14 times they've played Big 10 teams and are 1-5 ATS during their past six neutral site games. Michigan, by contrast, is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Wolverines enter tournament play riding a nine-game win streak. They have the ninth-best defense in the country, have held seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 67 points, rank 25th in offensive rebounding and are No. 2 in turnover percentage. They are far, far superior to Montana. Given the situational elements, the Wolverines should have no problem winning by double-digits.
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03-15-18 | Suns +14 v. Jazz | 88-116 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Utah is playing great and just destroyed Detroit, 110-79, at home two days ago. That was the Jazz's fifth straight victory by at least 14 points. Phoenix is 1-16 in its last 17 games and just was embarrassed, 129-107, at home by the Cavaliers this past Tuesday. That was only the third time in their last 11 games, though, the Suns have lost by more than 11 points. Understandably the marketplace isn't interested in backing Phoenix. The Jazz have been bet up enough, however, where I see value taking the Suns. The Suns want to redeem themselves from their bad loss to the Cavaliers. Devin Booker, their best player, criticized his organization following that loss for babying the players. The Suns are extremely young with only Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley having more than four years experience. But the Suns do possess some talent headed by Booker, the 10th-leading scorer in the NBA. Phoenix is 9-5 ATS the past 14 times it has been a double-digit 'dog. The Suns won't attempt to play their small ball against this opponent. So Chandler, their veteran big man and still a rebounding force, will draw decent minutes. He can keep Rudy Gobert in check. The Jazz can't be faulted for taking this opponent lightly. Utah averages less than 103 points a game so it's difficult to cover a margin this large.
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03-14-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Warriors have been idle since Sunday having lost their last two games. Golden State hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Golden State is rested, fired-up and ready to unleash its frustrations against the Lakers. LA has been playing well, but isn't good enough to beat an elite foe. The Lakers also just beat the Nuggets in a highly-satisfying home victory last night in a very emotional and physical game. This marks the Lakers' third game in four days. They remain without injured second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram. The Warriors won't have Stephen Curry. They've had two games to adjust now to his absence. Golden State leads the NBA in all major scoring categories, including points per game and shooting percentage. The Warriors also rank third in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers rank 27th defensively. They've allowed triple-digits in their last 13 games. The Warriors are by far the superior team and are in a strong situational spot here. The points are worthy laying.
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03-13-18 | North Carolina-Asheville +18 v. USC | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
USC can destroy this team if it wants. But I don't see the Trojans having the motivation after failing to make the NCAA Touranment. The Trojans were royally ripped-off in not making the tournament. This is their first NIT bid since 1999 - and they certainly aren't excited about it. Their home court edge isn't going to amount to that much either because it's spring break on the USC campus. UNC Asheville have experienced guards, which is a key in tournament action especially when on the road. The Bulldogs are excited about taking on the Trojans. They have covered in seven of their last 10 matchups versus opponents who have a winning percentage above .600.
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03-13-18 | Nuggets v. Lakers +2 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
The Lakers are playing well winning seven of their last nine, including defeating Cleveland, 127-113, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have covered 69 percent of their last 16 games. LA is home here with short revenge. The Nuggets are 11-20 on the road this season. There is bad blood between these two teams and it centers around the Nuggets punk guard Jamal Murray. The Lakers don't like Murry believing he hasn't shown proper NBA respect. The Nuggets just beat the Lakers, 125-116, at Pepsi Center this past Friday in an intense matchup that concluded with Lakers coach Luke Walton screaming at Murray and a number of LA players vowing payback. That time has come now. Julius Randle and Brook Lopez are playing at high levels. Lonzo Ball is healthy. The Lakers have scored at least 111 points in 10 of their last 12 games. Denver ranks last in defensive field goal and is weak on the road. |
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03-13-18 | Hampton +22.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It's spring break and snowing on the Notre Dame campus. So it's hard to imagine the Irish basketball players getting up for this first-round NIT matchup knowing they were the final school left out of the NCAA Tournament, a tournament they should have been selected to. This what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey was quoted as saying on Sunday when word came out that the Irish were not picked for the NCAA Tournament: "We've had all kinds of things happen and on the most important day, it was a heartbreaking day. It's a tough one to swallow." I can't see Notre Dame being motivated at all. But is Hampton good enough to hang around? I believe so especially given this huge spread. The Pirates were the best team in the MEAC this season. They have played in post-season tournaments the past four years, including the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and 2016. Hampton has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Pirates have a pair of very good guards in Jermaine Marrow and Malique Trent-Street. The Pirates ranked 55th in the nation in scoring at 79.3 points per game. Notre Dame, which has been inconsistent offensively, averages 75 points. The Pirates are a strong rebounding team - tied for 12th in the nation - and have depth with 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game. This is important if the spread comes into question late in the game when Notre Dame is playing its bench players. Hampon is road-tested having covered 12 of its last 16 away contests. The Pirates rank among the top 56 teams in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. So there are a lot of checkmarks as to why Hampton can hang with a disinterested Notre Dame team that isn't likely to have much of a crowd.
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03-13-18 | Hornets v. Pelicans -4 | 115-119 | Push | 0 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have Anthony Davis back and are due for a strong performance after losing the first two games of their homestand. Those losses were to the Wizards and Jazz. Now the Pelicans are dropping way down in class. The Hornets are nine games under .500 and headed for the lottery once again. They are 1-5 in their last six games. Their lone victory during this span was a home win against the lowly Suns, who were minus their best player, Devin Booker. The Hornets nearly blew a 22-point lead, too, in that game as the Suns cut the margin to just two points in the fourth quarter. Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and 0-8 the past eight times versus Western Conference foes. The Hornets also could be without underrated big man Cody Zeller, who is dealing with knee soreness.
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03-12-18 | Canucks v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 145 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for the Kings and I'll gladly take a nice plus price to lay 1 1/2 goals. The Kings were buried by the struggling Blues, 7-2, at home this past Saturday afternoon. The last time LA was embarrassed at home by that big of a margin was 2008. That loss dropped the Kings out of a playoff spot. But LA can get right back into the playoffs with a victory. Not only do the Kings have playoff incentive and motivation to rebound from probably their worst game of the season, but they also have revenge. The Canucks embarrassed the Kings with a 6-2 home win on Jan. 23. The Canucks are out of playoff contention and struggling losing eight of their last 10 games. They are 0-3 since their leading scorer and rookie sparkplug, Brock Boeser, suffered a season-ending fracture in his lower back last Monday. Vancouver's offense has yet to recover from losing Boeser averaging one goal during the last three games, including a 1-0 defeat to Arizona on Sunday night. This marks Vancouver's third game in four days and second in two nights.
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03-11-18 | Rockets v. Mavs +12.5 | 105-82 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Dallas is playing better since being called out for tanking. The Mavericks are 2-0 in their last two games defeating the Nuggets and Grizzlies by a combined 45 points. They could get back Dennis Smith Jr. from a quad injury today after the star rookie point guard missed the Mavericks' 114-80 waltz against the Grizzlies last night. The Mavericks should have more motivation than the Rockets in a triple-revenge spot. Houston is 3-0 versus Dallas this season. The Rockets' average win margin in these three games is 10 points. Perhaps the biggest factor, though, in backing the home 'dog is I'm not expecting James Harden to play for the Rockets. This is Houston's fourth road game in six days. The Rockets have a far more challenging game on Monday when they host San Antonio. So the word is the Rockets are going to give Harden a chance to rest his sore knees by sitting him out here. Houston doesn't figure to care much about this matchup and could be in a letdown moood after its 17-game win streak was ended by the Raptors this past Friday night.
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03-10-18 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Less than 24 hours after a highly satisfying 116-102 home win against LeBron James and the Cavaliers, the Clippers host the lowly Magic. It's going to be tough for the Clippers to get up for this opponent especially since the Magic are likely to be without their two leading scorers, Aaron Gordon (concussion) and Evan Fournier (knee). The Magic played one of their worst games without those two losing 94-88 on the road to the Kings last night. Orlando's offense was discombobulated against a weak Kings defense. But the Magic have had a game now to adjust to the absence of Gordon and Fournier. The Clippers have been winning with offense not defense allowing triple digits in each of their last 11 games. So I'm expecting a better and more inspired performance from the Magic, who don't play again until Tuesday. Unlike other bottom feeders, the Magic usually play hard and are not in tank mode. This is born out by the Magic covering 16 of the last 22 times as underdogs, going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and being 8-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Orlando has covered 17 of its last 24 games and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing an opponent with a winning home mark. The Clippers have a three-game road trip up next that features matchups against the Rockets and Thunder. So Doc Rivers isn't going to burn out his best players against this opponent especially since his team played last night.
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03-10-18 | San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
San Diego State is on a huge roll and I'm going to get behind the Aztecs here. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games since suspended senior leader Malik Pope returned to the team. All together, the Aztecs have won eight in a row. They've covered the past six times against above .500 opponents. New Mexico is in a bad situational spot having had to play the late game last night. Now they have to play around 15 hours later with legs that figure to be tired. San Diego State should be the much fresher team since it played earlier and only had one of its starters go past the 29-minute mark. The Aztecs are a bad matchup, too, for New Mexico because they like to slow things down and don't turn the ball over. The Lobos thrive on comitting turnovers. That's not likely to happen here. |
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03-09-18 | Knicks +10 v. Bucks | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
The due factor is there for the Knicks, who are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games and were blown out at Portland during their last game this past Tuesday. Mainly, though, this handicap is a fade on the Bucks laying this many points. Milwaukee just isn't that strong of a team and are not in good form. The Bucks have lost six of their last seven games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 2-6 SU with one of those victory coming against the Hawks by five points. The Knicks nearly beat the Bucks when they last played at Bradley Center falling 92-90 on Feb. 2. The Knicks then lost by 14 points at home to the Bucks four days in the game where Kristaps Porzingis was lost for the season with an ACL injury. So the Knicks should have extra motivation here.
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03-08-18 | Oregon v. Utah +2.5 | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Utah beat Oregon at Oregon by 10 earlier this season. Now the Utes catch Oregon off an OT win against Washington State yesterday. So a big scheduling edg goes to Utah. The Utes had a first-round bye and are playing better than the Ducks. The Utes are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Utah has the necessary point guard in Justin Bibbins and big man David Collette can hurt Oregon inside. The Utes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 games.
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03-08-18 | Celtics v. Wolves +2.5 | 117-109 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
Much is being made of the Timberwolves being without Jimmy Buttler. But the Celtics are likely to be missing their best player, too. Kyrie Irving is doubtful with a knee injury. The Celtics are playing their third consecutive road game. The Timberwolves have had five full days of rest after returning from a West Coast trip where they lost to Portland and Utah in their last two games. The Timberwolves should be rested and ready. Minnesota has been dominant at Target Center winning 15 of its last 16 there, including covering 11 of its last 14. Boston has failed to cover during four of its past five visits to Minnesota.
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03-08-18 | SMU v. Connecticut +2 | 80-73 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
SMU couldn't beat Connecticut when it had leading scorer Shake Milton and I don't see it beating the Huskies without him. SMU is 1-8 since Milton suffered a broken hand. The Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS during this time frame. |
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03-07-18 | Magic +7 v. Lakers | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
The Lakers haven't been this high of a favorite since they had Magic Johnson. OK, not true. They were minus 8 hosting the Suns a month ago. But you get the point. This is a very high spread for the rebuilding, youthful Lakers to cover especially against a team that is way below-the-radar in terms of excellent point spread marks and talent. Orlando is a lottery team just like the Lakers. But the Magic have an underrated roster especially now with rookie Jonathan Isaac healthy joining Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic are much better than other lottery teams such as the Kings, Suns and Hawks. So the Lakers are overpriced here especially without their second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram, who is out with strained groin. The Magic actually hold a winning record - 10-8 - in games Isaac has played in. The rookie power forward, who was the sixth overall draft pick, had missed two months with a sprained ankle. Orlando has some surprising ATS marks such as covering 15 of the last 20 times as an underdog and going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road contests. The Magic laid an egg against Utah's tough defense in their last game this past Monday at Salt Lake City. Orlando, though, has covered seven of the last eight times following an ATS loss. The Magic have covered 69 percent of their last 23 games and should find scoring a lot easier operating against the soft Lakers rather than the Jazz. LA is giving up an average of 115 points in its last nine games. The teams met in Orlando on Jan. 31 and the Magic blasted the Lakers, 127-105, despite not having Gordon then. Gordon leads Orlando in scoring and is averaging 17.2 points and 8.5 rebounds during his last six games.
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03-07-18 | Louisville v. Florida State | 82-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Louisville needs to play great defense to beat Florida State. I don't see that happening. This has been a down season for the Cardinals on the court and a terrible one for them off the court. I The two teams split their two games this season. Louisville won the first meeting in Tallahassee, coming back from a 17-point deficit. Florida State won the remtch, 80-76, early last month. Since that time, the Seminoles have been getting major contributions from sophomore guard Trent Forrest and freshman center Ike Obiagu. Forrest is averaging 14.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists during the last five games. Those two weren't major factors in the previous games between the teams. They give Florida State an added edge. Not only do the Cardinals have to deal with the pressure to win this game with their NCAA Tournament hopes likely hanging in the balance, but their defense slipped during February. They enter this matchup in bad form, too, losers of four of their last five games. Louisville also has failed to cover in its past four neutral site games. |
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03-05-18 | BYU +5.5 v. St. Mary's | 85-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
St. Mary's had to exert a lot of energy to get past stubborn 10th-seeded Pepperdine in Saturday's West Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gaels are going to need to play better to cover this number against BYU. This was the fifth time in their last six conference games that the Gaels have failed to cover the spread. |
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03-05-18 | Pistons +7 v. Cavs | 90-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Detroit is hard to get behind right now. I understand that. But the Cavaliers' record in these type of games is astounding - astoundingly horrific. Cleveland has failed to cover 21 of the past 25 times as favorites. The Cavaliers are 3-23 ATS at home versus opponents with a losing road mark. Cleveland will be dealing with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin minus front-court starters Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson along with reserve Jeff Green. Thompson was averaging 11 rebounds per game during Cleveland's last four games. Thompson's absence puts unsung rookie Ante Zizic likely into the rotation. The Cavaliers are 4-4 since dealing for George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and Rodney Hood. They are better than they were without this infusion of youth and athleticism, but are going through an adjustment period and are not an elite team right now. The Pistons were 19-14 before point guard Reggie Jackson was injured. They are 6-8 since trading for Blake Griffin. They trail the Heat by four games for the final playoff spot in the East and trying to hang in as Jackson could returning to the lineup possibly next week. So the Pistons should play hard here. Griffin and Drummond give them a frontcourt edge on the Cavaliers. Detroit defeated Cleveland in the previous meeting, 125-114, achieving the victory without Griffin and Jackson. |
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03-04-18 | Pacers v. Wizards -3.5 | 98-95 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
The Wizards are the better team, are playing home and catch the Pacers at the end of a four-game, seven-day road trip. Indiana opened its road trip losing to the Hawks and Mavericks before beating the Bucks two days ago. The Wizards have lost their last two games. Those matchups, however, were against the Warriors and Raptors. Those teams have the second and third-best records, respectively, in the NBA. Prior to meeting those two powerful foes, the Wizards had won 10 of 13. Now the Wizards are stepping way down in class. Washington remains without point guard John Wall. But the Pacers are without their main point guard, too, with Darren Collison sidelined due to a knee injury. The Wizards are 10-5 minus Wall. The Pacers are below .500 on the road and have lost in their last four visits to Washington. The Wizards won the last get together, 111-102, beating the Pacers at Indiana on Feb. 5.
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03-03-18 | Georgetown +19 v. Villanova | 73-97 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Villanova has no reason to play especially hard in this lopsided matchup, especially following consecutive overtime games in which their starters logged heavy minutes. The Wildcats don't have a lot of depth and must not burn out their starters with the Big East Tournament approaching. Georgetown usually can be counted on to play hard. The Hoyas have been at their best as Big East underdogs covering seven of eight times in that role with three straight-up victories. The Hoyas also have covered in their last four road games. |
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03-03-18 | Kansas -2.5 v. Oklahoma State | 64-82 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Never mind that Kansas has already won the Big 12 Conference crown again. The Jayhawks have had this game circled ever since Oklahoma State upset them, 84-79, as 12-point road underdogs. |
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03-02-18 | Raptors -3 v. Wizards | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
The Raptors are the best team in the Eastern Conference right now. They are hot with 11 victories in their last 13 games and have revenge motivation for a 122-119 road loss to the Wizards last month. Washington won that despite missing John Wall. The Raptors know first-hand now how the Wizards have adjusted their style minus their star point guard. I'm expecting a much stronger defensive performance. Toronto ranks among the top eight teams defensively while being the third-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Wizards carry a higher fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. The spread is low enough to get behind the superior team that has covered in eight of its last 10 games. |
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03-02-18 | Rhode Island +2 v. Davidson | 61-63 | Push | 0 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
I see Rhode Island atoning for an embarrassing 30-point home loss to St. Joe's in its last game. The Rams have defeated Davidson four straight times, including a 13-point winner at home in their last meeting. The Rams have won 18 of their last 20 games and have covered in 17 of their last 24 Atlantic 10 games. |
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03-02-18 | Pistons v. Magic +2.5 | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Fading the Pistons on the road in this spread range is worth a small play. Detroit has lost 19 of its 28 road games. The Pistons' last road victory came against the Nets back on Jan. 10. Detroit is 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six away contests. The Pistons have covered just 27 percent of their last 34 games versus sub .500 opponents. Orlando is playing hard. The Magic hung in against the Thunder and Raptors, during their last two games, and are 3-3 ATS in their six home games, including a straight-up victory against the Cavaliers. The Pistons' strength is up front with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. They are weak in the backcourt. The Magic can match up to the Pistons up front with a healthy Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. Rookie power forward Jonathan Isaac could provide a spark and needed defensive help as he's expected to play after missing the last 26 games with an ankle injury. The Magic rolled past the Pistons when they last hosted them winning, 102-89 on Dec. 28.
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03-02-18 | Pennsylvania v. Yale +1 | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Penn is playing well. But so is Yale. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six. The Bulldogs also are in revenge mode for a 59-50 road loss to Penn in the previous meeting this season. |
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03-01-18 | Wolves v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are 2-0 since their on and off court leader Jimmy Butler suffered what likely is a regular season-ending knee injury. Those victories have come against the Bulls and Kings, two of the worst teams in the NBA. Now the Timberwolves face their first real test since Butler went down: a road game against the Trail Blazers, who have won four in a row. I don't see Minnesota passing this test. This isn't a good time to be playing on the road against the Trail Blazers, who are are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Damian Lillard is playing as well as anyone in the NBA averaging 37.1 points in his last six games. Portland is jockeying for playoff position and should encounter little trouble scoring big against the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves rank second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Portland is averaging 111.2 points in its last four games. Minnesota is a poor road club, too. The Timberwolves are 14-17 ATS away from Target Center, failing to cover in six of their last eight road matchups. They are 0-3 SU and ATS during their past three visits to Moda Center, including losing 123-114, to Portland on Jan. 24.
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03-01-18 | Lakers v. Heat -3.5 | 131-113 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
Miami is a top-four defensive team that is well-coached and has a solid bench. The Lakers are fancy with a lot of youth and questionable maturity. The situation sets up well here for the home Heat. Miami has been home since Saturday. The Lakers are fat and happy winners of three in a row. Note that those victories have come against the tanking Mavericks, Kings and Hawks. The Lakers have had a couple of days to enjoy the distractions of South Beach. LA is 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing on two days rest. The Lakers also have failed to cover during seven of their past nine visits to Miami. The Lakers are nine games below .500 on the road. I see the veteran Heat being the more focused team. They can't afford a loss here holding on to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami's front-court and bench strength just improved with the return of center Kelly Olynyk from a shoulder injury. Dwayne Wade has made his presence known, too, with his savvy play. Miami surrenders 101.6 points per game. Only three teams allow less per game. The Lakers are giving up an average of 117 points during their last six game
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02-28-18 | Nevada -3 v. UNLV | Top | 101-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
Nevada is much the better team, has a far superior coach and this is the Wolf Pack's Revenge Game of the Year. UNLV handed Nevada its lone home loss of the season, winning 86-78 three weeks ago. That loss came in front of Nevada's eighth-largest crowd in Lawlor Events Center history. The Wolf Pack were missing their top scorer, Caleb Martin. He was out with a foot sprain. Nevada didn't play well, though. and the Rebels shot a blistering 50.8 percent from the floor. Credit to UNLV because it did play extremely well in that game. This is a bitter, bitter rivalry. UNLV, a classless program, did a lot of trash talking during and following that win. The Wolf Pack haven't forgotten. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since. Martin is back and will play. Reno hasn't been swept in a season series by the Rebels since 2012-13, which was its first year in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV has a size advantage on the Wolf Pack. But Nevada can take advantage of UNLV's weak transition defense. Nevada has won the Mountain West Conference title already, but the Wolf Pack will be focused and highly motivated for this game. Nevada coach Eric Musselman said he won't be resting anybody that his team will be going all out. Musselman is a far better coach than UNLV's Marvin Menzies. UNLV has lost and failed to cover its last three games, including losing to Fresno State, 77-64, as a two-point favorite during its last home game. The Rebels don't have the home attendance they used to have because of the decline in their program. They have covered only two of their last 10 home contests.
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs -4.5 | 121-116 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Back from their annual rodeo trip, the Spurs are playing at home for the first time in 25 days. I'm expecting a strong effort. San Antonio last played on Sunday. The Spurs won't play again until Saturday. Focus won't be an issue. San Antonio has covered 63 percent of its home games this season. The Spurs have been far better at home than on the road. New Orleans is playing its best ball of the season. The Pelicans are only 1 1/2 games behind the Spurs for fourth place in the Western Conference. San Antonio definitely is going to perceive a challenge here. I have a lot of faith in Gregg Popovich, who I regard as the best coach in basketball. The Spurs went 2-4 on their road swing. However, their last game was a confidence-inspiring 110-94 victory against the rejuvenated Cavaliers. Kawhi Leonard remains out for San Antonio. But unsung point guard Dejounte Murray is developing into a star. The Spurs have the coaching, depth, right situation and spot to cover this number.
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02-28-18 | Thunder -4.5 v. Mavs | 111-110 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
The Mavericks upset the Pacers, 109-103, at home this past Monday. That ended a four-game losing streak and makes the Mavericks a bit fat and happy for this matchup. Dallas hasn't not won back-to-back games during their last 18 games. Oklahoma City's superstars have been complaining about not getting enough calls. That could change here. The Thunder hold the star power and rebounding edge to cover this number. They also have revenge motivation. The Mavericks upset the Thunder, 116-113, on New Year's Eve in Oklahoma City. Dallas also whipped the Thunder at home early in the season. The Thunder haven't been good as chalk this season - big chalk that is. As favorites of five points or fewer, the Thunder have covered 10 of the last 13 times.
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02-28-18 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -8.5 | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Kentucky has picked a good time to get back untrack. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games. During this span, they have posted double-digit victories against Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri. |
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02-28-18 | Illinois v. Iowa | 87-96 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Iowa is a great fade now that it is tournament time. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 in the Big Ten Tournament under Fran McCaffrey. They have lost in the first round the past four seasons. |
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02-27-18 | Kings +12 v. Blazers | 99-116 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
I don't see Portland taking Sacramento that serious following the Kings' 118-100 home loss to the Timberwolves last night. The Kings, though, have covered in their last four away matchups. They catch the Trail Blazers in a flat spot. Portland is playing at home for the first time in two weeks. Portland has bigger games on deck, too, hosting the Timberwolves on Thursday and Thunder on Saturday. Sacramento can't match Portland's backcourt star power, but the Kings have some promising youth - DeAaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovich and Willie Cauley Stein - to go with veterans Vince Carter and Zach Randolph and decent bench players in Buddy Hield and Skai Labissiere. They've helped the Kings go 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Sacramento has been a 'dog of five or more points.
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02-27-18 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -3 | 64-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Baylor is playing better since losing 98-96 to Oklahoma during the first meeting between the two teamsd. The Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS since that loss. |
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02-27-18 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Sometimes a team returning home following a multi-game road trip can be flat. I don't see that happening here with the Bruins. Boston is mad and in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row for the first time since mid-November. Both defeats came on the road. The losses were a controversial 4-3 defeat to the Maple Leafs this past Friday following by a flat performance on Saturday in a loss to the last-place Sabres. Now the Bruins are back in action after two full days off. Boston has won 10 of its last 13 home games and fortified itself at the trade deadline picking up Rick Nash and Tommy Wingels while signing Brian Gionta off the U.S. Olympic team. All are expected to play for the first time at home today as members of the Bruins. The Bruins are much the superior team and should be fired-up. So I believe it's worth it to take a plus price with them on the money line rather than lay such heavy juice. Carolina is struggling both record-wise and emotionally. The Hurricanes have lost five in a row, managing only six goals during this span. They've allowed at least three goals in their last six games. This is a very difficult time, too, mentally for the Hurricanes following the death of co-captain Jordan Staal's baby daugther during the weekend. Staal isn't likely to play. The two teams met in Boston last month and the Bruins blasted the Hurricanes, 7-1. Boston goalie Tukka Rask has a strong history versus Carolina with a 7-3-3 record, a 1.89 GAA and .939 save percentage.
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02-26-18 | Suns +7.5 v. Pelicans | 116-125 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
I understand it's difficult to pull the trigger on the Suns especially when they are on the road. But this is a golden spot for Phoenix. The Pelicans are playing for the third time in four days. They defeated the Heat in overtime at home on Friday. New Orleans followed that up by coming back from an 18-point second-half deficit to beat the Bucks in overtime on the road Sunday. Anthony Davis played 43:21 minutes and Jrue Holiday logged 41:31 minutes against the Bucks. It's likley Davis and Holiday, the Pelicans' two best players with DeMarcus Cousins out, are going to see a reduction in minutes. If the Suns aren't competive early, the backdoor should swing wide open during garbage time as the Pelicans are in a huge letdown spot not only because of the situation but also playing the bottom-feeding Suns. The Pelicans are 1-8 ATS the past nine times hosting a foe with a losing road mark. New Orleans takes off for a four-game road trip following this matchup beginning with a tough game against the Spurs on Wednesday. So focus also is an issue for New Orleans and Alvin Gentry isn't one of the better coaches in the league. The Suns nearly upset the Trail Blazers in their last game losing 106-104 this past Saturday. Recently acquired Elfrid Payton continues to play well for Phoenix.
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02-24-18 | Arizona v. Oregon -2 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
The Ducks received a huge boost in confidence beating 25th-ranked Arizona State on Thurday. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Arizona, which is likely to be minus second-leading scorer Allonzo Trier, who was declared ineligible by the NCAA this week for testing positive for a banned substance. The Wildcats have a much bigger problem than this, though. There's the real possibility that their best player, Deandre Ayton, could be suspended along with head coach Sean Miller. The latest news is all about an FBI investigation into the Arizona program with Miller and Ayton at the center of the storm. This obviously is a huge distraction.
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02-24-18 | Bulls v. Wolves -6 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I don't expect Jimmy Butler to play after he injured his knee in the Timberwolves' 120-102 road loss to the Rockets last night. Butler's injury has had a drastic affect on this line. Too much in my view. The Timberwolves still have the three best players on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague. Minnesota has been dominant at home going 13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS with the lone loss occurring to the Rockets during this span. The Bulls are a far cry from the Rockets, who I consider the second-best team in the NBA and very close to the Warriors. Chicago has lost 10 of its last 12 games and has failed to cover in nine of its last 11. One of those victories, though, was against the Timberwolves at home, 114-113, on Feb. 9. The Timberwolves want revenge in what has become a grudge matchup because of Butler and Tom Thibodeau's former ties to Chicago. The Bulls are committed to rebuilding, even tanking, benching Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday in favor of Cristiano Felicio and David Nwaba. Cameron Payne also is seeing more time at backup point guard.
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02-24-18 | Magic +9.5 v. 76ers | 105-116 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
The Magic's two best players, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, are healthy now. Both should be better in sync after getting in a game following the All-Star break. The 76ers are a viable playoff team. But I don't like them in this high of a point spread range. Philadelphia has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. Philadelphia has three big road games on tap starting with Sunday's matchup against the Wizards. That's followed by a Tuesday game against the Heat and then Thursday versus the Cavaliers. So this isn't an all-out spot for the 76ers. Orlando is well below the radar spread-wise covering its last eight road games while going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 overall games.
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02-23-18 | Clippers -4.5 v. Suns | Top | 128-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
The Clippers have already played a game following the long All-Star break losing 134-127 to Golden State on the road last night. The Clippers are more experienced, professional and deeper than the Suns, an opponent they have dominated winning 15 of the past 17 times. This includes a 2-0 mark this season with the average victory being by 27 1/2 points. The Suns are in the argument for worst team in the NBA. They are tied for the fewest victories with 18 and have lost 12 of their last 13 games and 15 of 17. Of the Suns' past 13 losses, 10 have come by double-digits. The Clippers have regained legitimate playoff contender status going 13-6 in their last 19 games. They are 5-2 since dealing Blake Griffin to the Pistons for Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley. LA steps way down in class here after just playing the Warriors. There should be no fatigue factor for the Clippers having been idle for so long before playing last night. There will be a rust factor, though, for the Suns. There's also a maturity issue for the youthful Suns to see how they react from being off since Feb. 14.
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02-23-18 | Spurs +4 v. Nuggets | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
I'll take Gregg Popovich against any coach given extra prep time, which is the case here. The Spurs have had nine days to think about a 117-109 road loss to the Nuggets in their final game before the All-Star break. San Antonio had defeated Denver five straight times before that loss. The Nuggets caught the Spurs playing without rest after having been at Utah the night before. So that marked two consecutive games in high altitude. The Spurs also were minus LaMarcus Aldridge, their best player with Kawhi Leonard out, and Rudy Gay in that game. Aldridge should play for sure here. The Spurs have traditionally fared well in Denver covering in 21 of their last 29 visits.
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02-23-18 | Cavs -5 v. Grizzlies | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are much improved since acquiring George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. at the trade deadline. They are better defensively, younger and more athletic. They also have better chemistry. I was surprised when Cleveland lost last night at home to Washington. Memphis, though, isn't nearly as good as the Wizards. The Grizzlies, in fact, are tied for the fewest wins in the league with an 18-38 record. The Grizzlies have dropped seven in a row. They are facing the cold reality of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. The Cavaliers are not only the better team but have stronger motivation and the edge of already having played a game following the nine-day All-Star break.
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02-23-18 | Harvard +1.5 v. Princeton | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Harvard is on an 8-3-1 against the spread run. The Crimson just rolled past Princeton by 15 points two weeks ago. Now look at the line. So I definitely believe there is value on the Crimson. |
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02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs -5 | Top | 110-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Cleveland is 2-0 against Washington this season - and this is when the Cavaliers' roster and chemistry was much worse than it is now. Spread-wise, the Cavaliers were the most disappointing team in the league pre All-Star break. But now the rebuild Cavaliers are much different and much better. They have won four straight games since retooling their roster getting young, more athletic and better defensively. Cleveland's offense hasn't suffered either. The Cavaliers are averaging 126 points during their four-game win streak. This is Cleveland's first home game, too, with its new fully integrated roster. The Wizards couldn't beat the Cavaliers when they had John Wall and I don't see them hanging close without him especially given the circumstances that line up here.
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02-22-18 | Nets +7.5 v. Hornets | 96-111 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Hornets are just 15-15 at home. They are a lottery team just like the Nets and have no business laying this many points. The Nets limped into break losing seven in a row. They should come back rest, refreshed and rejuvenated. Brooklyn also should be at full strength with Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Caris LeVert expected to play after being out. Jefferson is an especially underrated player for Brooklyn. Brooklyn showed no quit last season winning 11 games after the All-Star break. The Nets have the fifth-best spread mark in the NBA and have covered seven of their last 10 road contests. There's a randomness factor, too, with both teams coming off a long break. Randomness is good when backing an underdog. Charlotte had a distracting bye week with the decision to look for a new general manager. The Hornets also have failed to cover the past six times after being idle for three days or more.
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02-21-18 | San Diego State v. Air Force +8.5 | Top | 67-56 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
In terms of straight-up record, Air Force is a bottom-three Mountain West Conference team. Point spread-wise, though, the Falcons are very strong. They have covered in nine of their last 12 league games and are 7-1 ATS at home this season. This coincides with San Diego State being a bad road team. The Aztecs are a middle-of-the-pack Mountain West team that is strong at home, weak on the road where they are 1-6 in conference play. This includes losses during their past five away matchups. San Diego State enters this matchup fat and happy after burying UNLV, 94-56, at home this past Saturday. That was the Aztecs' most lopsided victory against the Rebels in the 69-game history of the series. Now the Aztecs draw ninth place Air Force and last place San Jose State. So this doesn't shape up as a challenging week for them. The Falcons are going to be the more motivated team. They have revenge for an embarrassing 81-50 road loss to San Diego State from 18 days ago. Air Force only was able to shoot nine free throws in that game. Air Force upset New Mexico, 100-92, in its last home contest. Air Force has been on the road its past two games losing to UNLV and Boise State. Now the Falcons are back home. They are 16-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Falcons have covered four of the last five times against San Diego State at home, including winning straight-up last season, 60-57, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. They are 9-2 (82%) ATS the past 11 times versus San Diego State.
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02-20-18 | Illinois +16 v. Michigan State | 61-81 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Michigan State has covered just one of its last eight games. The Spartans could be distracted by Senior Night and still on Cloud Nine after rallying from 27 points down to beat Northwestern this past Saturday in the greatest comeback in Big Ten history. Illinois lost to Michigan State by 13 points in the first meeting despite the Spartans shooting a record 68.2 percent from the floor. The Illini have played better since that loss and should have their confidence up after snapping a four-game losing skid with a win against Nebraska on Saturday. Illinois is 5-1-1 ATS during its last seven visits to Michigan State, too.
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02-19-18 | Youngstown State v. Northern Kentucky -16.5 | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Northern Kentucky is coming off a loss. I see the Norse being fired up to bury a very bad Youngstown State. The Penguins are giving up more than 87 points per game during their last seven games. Northern Kentucky has the potent offense to take advantage averaging nearly 77 points a game. The teams met earlier at Youngstown State and Northern Kentucky won by double-digits. Now the Norse are home off a loss. They are 4-1 ATS following a loss.
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02-18-18 | Penn State v. Purdue -7.5 | 73-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Purdue is in stop-the-pain mode having lost consecutive close games to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconson. The Boilermakers are better than Penn State, highly motivated and at home where they have won 14 of 15 times. Penn State last won at Mackey Arena in 2006, a string of 10 consecutive road losses. The Boilermakers rank seventh in the nation in 3-point accuracy at 41.9 percent yet they have made only 32.1 percent of their beyond the arc shots in their last three games. A correction is due. Penn State is just average in 3-point defense. The Nittany Lions are playing well, but a letdown could be in store following their 79-56 burial of Ohio State at home on Thursday. Purdue has dominated this series winning the past five times. |
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02-17-18 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 130 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
It's not difficult to imagine the Golden Knights winning big here against the Canadiens. Las Vegas has the best home record in the NHL at 21-4-2. The Golden Knights are off a pair of three-goal home wins beating the Blackhawks and Oilers. Those teams are struggling and so are the Candiens. Montral has lost four in a row, three of those defeats by more than one goal. The Canadiens are 1-10 in their last 11 away contests. They have the worst road mark in the NHL and have not played at T-Mobile Arena, or been in the distracting Vegas enviornment. Goalie Carey Price is having an off-season. He's 0-for-8 in his last eight road starts. I don't expect the Golden Knight to let down either. They remember a 3-2 loss to the Canadiens back in early November. The Golden Knights didn't have starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury for that game and were at the end of a six-game, nine-day road trip.
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02-17-18 | Loyola Marymount +10.5 v. San Francisco | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
This mainly is a fade on San Francisco. The Dons are coming off a huge upset home victory against St. Mary's two days ago. It's going to be hard for the Dons to get up for this matchup in such a short time span. The Dons are 2-7 ATS following a victory. |
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02-16-18 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
Carolina has won each of its last three home games by more than one goal. The Hurricanes are in a good spot to cover the puck line again at home with a multiple goal victory against the defensively-challenged Islanders. The Islanders are coming off a hugely satisfying rivalry victory against the Rangers last night. Jaroslav Halak was brilliant in goal for the Islanders stopping 50 shots in a 3-0 victory. Halak isn't expected to start, though, in this game. That means a drop to backup goalie Thomas Greiss. Islanders goalies have it extremely rough as New York gives up the most goals and shots on goal in the league. The Islanders had allowed 25 goals in their last six games prior to Thursday. Opponents have averaged 51 shots on goal during the Islanders' last two games. The Islanders have permitted three or more goals in 13 of their last 15 games. This is the Islanders' third game in four days, too, so there will be a fatigue factor. New York has lost 10 of its last 14 road contests. The Hurricanes also played Thursday night losing 5-2 on the road to New Jersey. Backup goalie Scott Darling was in net for Carolina in that loss. Starter Cam Ward is expected to be back in goal for this game. The Hurricanes are 5-1-1 in Ward's last seven starts. Carolina is 10-2 the past 12 times facing foes with a sub .500 record.
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02-15-18 | Nuggets v. Bucks -3 | Top | 134-123 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
The game before All-Star break often is tougher on the road team - and Denver is not a good road club. The Nuggets are 8-19 away from Pepsi Center, including 1-7 in their last eight road contests. Their lone road win during this span was against the Suns, who I rate as the worst team in the NBA. Denver is surrendering 114.2 points a game during its past eight road matchups. This is the Nuggets' fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. It's a lot of traveling for them made worse with All-Star break starting Friday. Conversely, the Bucks are a solid home team winning 19 of 28 at Bradley Center. They are 9-2 since interim coach Joe Prunty replaced Jason Kidd. Morale and defense are much improved for the Bucks since Kidd was let go. The Bucks made a below-the-radar, but astute trade acquiring center Tyler Zeller. He can bother Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic, who is having a big February.
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02-15-18 | Ohio State +1 v. Penn State | 56-79 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
I like Ohio State in this revenge spot against Penn State. The Nittany Lions dealt Ohio State its only Big Ten loss in the first meeting with a buzzer-beating basket. Penn State missed only three of 14 shots from beyond the arch in that victory against the Buckeyes. I don't expect the Nittany Lions to shoot like that again. |
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02-15-18 | NC-Greensboro v. The Citadel +10.5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The Citadel has covered seven of its last nine games. The Bulldogs have posted upsets of Wofford and Furman and lost to East Tennessee State, the first place team in the Southern Conference, by just two points as a 15-point 'dog during their last three home games. Now The Citadel is another big home 'dog. This time to UNC Greensboro, which is in a dangerous situational spot. The Spartans just beat East Tennessee State at home on Monday in a huge game and has a more challenging road game against Mercer on Saturday. The Spartans have failed to cover in their last four games against the Bulldogs.
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02-14-18 | Kentucky +9.5 v. Auburn | 66-76 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
The last time Kentucky was this big of an underdog the Wildcats beat West Virginia, 83-76, as a 10-1/2 point road 'dog on Jan. 27. The Wildcats have the athleticism and talent to upset Auburn straight-up here, too. Kentucky holds a big height advantage and shouldn't be lacking for motivation with this lack of respect betting line. The Wildcats have never dropped four in a row under John Calipari. |
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02-13-18 | LSU +7.5 v. Alabama | 65-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
LSU is coming on winning two of its last three, including an impressive 82-66 victory against Mississippi this past Saturday. |
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02-13-18 | Hawks +7.5 v. Bucks | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Atlanta is in an ambush spot catching the Bucks in their first home game since returning from a four-game road trip. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and minus key contributors Malcolm Brogdon and John Henson. The Hawks are below-the-radar going a much more respectable 8-9 during their last 17 games. Both teams average the same amount of points per game at 104. The Hawks have a good history, too, in Milwaukee covering in eight of their last nine visits. |
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02-13-18 | Heat +7.5 v. Raptors | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Toronto has been a play-on team especially at home. Toronto has the best record in the Eastern Conference and the No. 1 home record in the NBA. The Raptors have won five in a row with their average winning margin being 21 points during this span. So why buck the Raptors? Spot, line value and Miami's track record in these instances. While the Raptors were destroying the Hornets at Charlotte on Sunday in their last game, the Heat were resting. Miami last played on Friday. You know that with the Heat you're going to get good coaching and game preparation from Erik Spoelstra, a top-seven defense, strong team effort and solid bench play enhanced with the addition of Dwayne Wade. The Raptors have lost only four home games, but one of them was to the Heat. Miami has a winning road mark, own a 15-7-1 ATS record the past 23 times playing Eastern Conference foes and have covered in five of its last six away games. The Heat also are 22-7 ATS during their past 29 road games versus foes with a winning home record. I want all this going for me. I like the spot, too, I perceive the Raptors being a little fat and happy while the fully rested Heat should be in line for a strong performance. This isn't by any means a fade on the Raptors. It's a play on the Heat with what I believe is enough line value to get involved.
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02-12-18 | Knicks +12 v. 76ers | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
The Knicks aren't just tough to back on the road, but anywhere these days riding a six-game losing streak with only one cover during this span. But there's enough line value to get behind New York in this division matchup. Philadelphia has opened its five-game homestand with three straight wins and covers. The 76ers finish their homestand against Miami on Wednesday. The 76ers have become a playoff team because of the tremendous talent of youngsters Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. But Philadelphia doesn't have the maturity and that much talent to cover double-digit spreads without playing very well. This is a flat spot for the 76ers. Philadelphia has already dropped games to bottom-feeders, including the Kings twice, Nets, Suns, Grizzlies and Lakers. New York lost its best player, Kristaps Porzingis, for the season to a torn ACL. So the Knicks are in rebuild mode, which means minutes for hungry youngsters looking to make their mark such as their point guards, rookie Frank Nitlikina and newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, who was impressive in his Knicks debut Sunday in a 121-113 loss to Indiana. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Knicks since they were idle Friday and Saturday. Michael Beasley has fulfilled Porzingis' role by averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds in two games replacing him. Beasley actually has played well during the entire season and now his role is greatly enhanced. Enes Kanter is having a big year and Tim Hardaway Jr. is healthy and underrated. The Knicks are a level higher than the NBA's worst dregs. They also have covered 11 of their last 16 games at Philadelphia. There's always the possibility of the 76ers resting the fragile Embiid. This will be the 76ers' third game in four days. Embiid hurt his knee in the 76ers' 112-98 win against the Clippers Saturday sitting out several minutes. He did return to the game. But the 76ers may choose to be careful with their franchise center in what appears to be an easy game for them especially with a tougher matchup on deck. The 76ers have a losing record when Embiid hasn't played.
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02-12-18 | Notre Dame +10.5 v. North Carolina | 66-83 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
This is too many points for North Carolina to be laying carrying a high fatigue rating and in a letdown spot. The Tar Heels are in letdown mode after posting victories on Thursday against Duke and North Carolina State on Saturday. |
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02-11-18 | Mavs +15.5 v. Rockets | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
I wasn't looking to step in front of the Rockets, winners of seven in a row, including burying the Nuggets, 130-104, this past Friday. Dallas isn't going to have Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews and backup point guard J.J. Barea for this matchup. The oddsmaker is begging to get money on the Mavericks and the marketplace has made Dallas even more inviting by betting the Rockets up. So I'll oblige by firing on Dallas at what I believe is an inflated number. Only once in their last 27 games have the Mavericks lost by more than 15 points. The teams last met on Jan. 24. The Mavericks were 6 1/2-point home 'dogs and lost 104-97. The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against opponents with a winning home mark. Dallas also has covered in eight of its last 11 away matchups. The Mavericks had their best offensive showing of the season in beating the Lakers, 130-123, at home against the Lakers last night. So they should enter this division game with confidence. Not having Matthews is tough. He may be the Mavericks' best overall player, but Nowitzki isn't worth anything on the line being far over-the-hill. The Mavericks have some underrated talent with Dennis Smith Jr., Harrison Barnes, Yogi Ferrell, Dwight Powell and newly acquired Doug McDermott. Of course these players can't compare to the Rockets' loaded lineup headed by superstars James Harden and Chris Paul. But the Dallas youngsters should be counted on to play big minutes - and to play hard. Houston doesn't have any special incentive or motivation for this game. The Rockets, in fact, should use this game to cut back the overextended minutes of their star players since this is their fourth game in six days and they have a much more challenging game on deck when they play the Timberwolves on the road Tuesday. The Rockets have failed to cover in five of their last six home games versus foes with a losing road record.
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02-11-18 | Raptors -3 v. Hornets | Top | 123-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Normally an early start time would be bad for the road team. But the visiting Raptors have been idle since Thursday while the Hornets just flew back into Charlotte early Saturday following a four-game West Coast swing that conluded Friday night when the obviously tired Hornets could manage only 17 points in the fourth quarter against the Jazz in a 106-94 loss. Toronto has the best record in the Easterm Conference. Charlotte is 23-32 and playing for the third time in four days. It's doubtful the Hornets make the playoffs. The Raptors have dominated weaker competition losing just three times all season to below .500 opponents. Toronto has matched up well, too, to Charlotte going 2-0 this season winning by 13 and 18 points, respectively.
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02-10-18 | Wizards -5 v. Bulls | Top | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The Bulls are 2-7 since losing point guard Kris Dunn to a concussion. One of those victories occurred last night when the emotional Bulls hosted their former star, Jimmy Butler, and former coach, Tom Thibodeau. Chicago upset Minnesota, 114-113, as 7 1/2-point home 'dogs coming back from 17 points down. I don't see the Bulls being able to repeat that emtional type of performance a second straight day. Chicago is 1-7 when playing in the second of back-to-back games. Not only will the Bulls be missing Dunn again, but also shooting guard Zach LaVine, who is averaging 26.5 points in his last four games after missing 42 games due to an ACL injury. So the Bulls are going to be missing their two most talented players. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg said he didn't want to play LaVine in this back-to-back spot so soon after his injury. The Wizards are vastly superior to Chicago missing those two players even though they remain without John Wall. The Wizards are 5-2 minus Wall during the past seven games, but those defeats have come in their last two games. They were against the 76ers on the road when they were playing without rest and to the Celtics two days ago in overtime. Washington hasn't lost three in a row all season. The Bulls have lost four in a row to Washington and are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times hosting the Wizards.
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02-10-18 | Wyoming +6.5 v. UNLV | 70-85 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
I don't trust the Rebels, nor their coach, Marvin Menzies, to cover this number in a letdown spot. UNLV is off a huge and highly-satisfying 86-78 road victory against arch-rival Nevada-Reno this past Wednesday. UNLV is 1-8 ATS following a victory. Now the Rebels take on a hot Wyoming team that has won five of its last six. The Cowboys' latest victory was 83-65 against Utah State, a team that beat the Rebels 85-78 last month.
Wyoming has covered 20 of the past 28 times when going against an opponent with a winning record. UNLV has failed to cover in six of its last seven home contests, |
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02-10-18 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia State -12.5 | 90-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for Georgia State, which has won 10 in a row with its last three victories coming by a combined 55 points. There is little chance of Georgia State taking Monroe lightly after the Warhawks upset Georgia Southern, 66-64 in overtime, as 10-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. |
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02-10-18 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6.5 | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
There is enough value to make a play on Iowa State. The Cyclones can take advantage of Oklahoma;s defense to make this game close if not pull the outright upset. The Sooners have allowed 79 points or more in seven of their last eight games. Oklahoma also has failed to cove in its last five road contests. |
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02-09-18 | Hornets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
Jazz minus 5 1/2 hosting Hornets You may be surprised to know that Utah owns the longest active win streak in the NBA right now with seven consecutive victories. Expect the streak to reach eight after this game. The red-hot Jazz draw Charlotte in a vulnerable spot carrying a high fatigue rating. The Hornets are playing in their fourth road game in six days while coming off a tough overtime loss last night to Portland. Charlotte last won at Utah in 2006 having lost 10 road games in a row to the Jazz. Utah has added motivaiton for a 99-88 road loss to the Hornets last month. The Jazz are playing their best ball and can make a serious move in the West with eight of their next 10 games at home. Ricky Rubio has spurred the Jazz. He played well during the second half of last season and he's continued that pattern averaging 22.1 points, 7.7 assists and shooting 53.8 percent from the floor in the last seven games. The Jazz traded Rodney Hood for Jae Crowder on Thursday. Hood is the better offensive player, but this was a good trade for Utah. Crowder is the better all-around player and fills a greater need at small forward than Hood does at shooting guard where his minutes were limited with the rise of rookie Donovan Mitchell.Crowder is expected to play against the Hornets. |
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02-09-18 | Pacers +4 v. Celtics | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
When the Pacers have Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner both healthy, which is the case here, they can be dangerous. Given this situation, Indiana is in a great ambush spot. The Pacers last played on Monday. Their game on Wednesday against the Pelicans was postponsed because of a wet floor. Indiana hasn't forgotten its last game against Boston. That occurred on Dec. 18 at home when the Celtics pulled off a one-point win when Terry Rozier stole the ball and scored a winning layup with 1.2 seconds left. It probably was the Pacers' toughest loss of the season. Oladipo, who leads the Pacers in scoring at 24 points per game, did not play in that game. Indiana is 6-2 in its last eight games that Oladipo has played in. While the Pacers should have plenty of energy and motivation, the Celtics drag themselves to Boston after nipping the Wizards in overtime at Washington Thursday night. This will mark the Celtics' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Celtics might get caught looking ahead, too, to hosting the Cavaliers on national television Sunday. That's the game where the Celtics will retire Paul Pierce's No. 34 in a special ceremony.
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02-09-18 | Davidson +6.5 v. Rhode Island | 59-72 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rhode Island is fat, happy and rusty having won 14 in a row but not having played for a week. I see the Rams having problems with Davidson, which is off three straight blowout victories. The Wildcats are road-proven having beaten Fordham, George Mason and Charlotte while losing by one point to Dayton. The Wildcats certainly won't lack for motivation after Rhoe Island ended their season in the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament last season. Davidson is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine conference games. |
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02-08-18 | Celtics +2 v. Wizards | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
Washington isn't a better team than Boston especially minus John Wall. The Celtics have covered 64 percent of their road games. If you think that is impressive try this: Boston is an amazing 10-1 (91 percent) as an underdog this season. The Celtics will look to redeem themselves after an embarrassing 20-point loss to Toronto this past Tuesday. The good news for the Celtics is that Kyrie Irving returned from injury and Terry Rozier continued to play at a high level. The Wizards had won five in a row before running out of gas in a 115-102 road loss to the 76ers on Tuesday. The fatigue factor is still there for the Wizards as this is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. Brad Stevens is the sharpest coach in the Eastern Conference. He'll have a good game plan to adjust to the Wizards' fill-in point guards. The Celtics rank either first or second in the major defensive categories. They surrender seven points per game than the Wizards.
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02-08-18 | Canucks v. Lightning -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 120 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
Following a bad 6-2 road loss to the Oilers this past Monday, I have to believe the Lightning will be motivated to bury Vancouver. So does the oddsmaker making Tampa Bay such a heavy favorite. So the way to attack this game is on the puck line laying 1 1/2 goals and getting back a plus price. Tampa Bay is 21-7 in its last 28 home games. Vancouver is a bad road team. The Lightning have the best record in the NHL, but are only one point ahead of Boston. So they can't afford to take Vancouver lightly. They shouldn't either having lost the past two times hosting the Canucks.
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02-07-18 | UNLV +9.5 v. Nevada | 86-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
UNR has the best frontcourt in the Mountain West Conference with Jordan Caroline and twins Caleb and Cody Martin. But UNLV can counter that with 7-foot-1 Brandon McCoy, who is five inches taller than Caroline. McCoy is backed by Shakur Juiston, another good frontcourt player. The Wolf Pack haven't faced a big man as talened as McCoy this season. The Rebels have double revenge, which means a lot in this bitter intrastate rivalry. The Rebels are capable of posting big wins such as defeating Utah by 27 points. They have been at their point spread best as underdogs taking Northern Iowa, Arizona and Boise State to overtime all as a 'dog. The Rebels have the offense - ranking in the top eight in scoring and shooting percentage - along with the athleticism and talent to hang in against the Wolf Pack.
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02-07-18 | Nets +9.5 v. Pistons | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Brooklyn has some below-the-radar talented players. But the oddsmaker never gives the Nets much respect. Brooklyn is 19-36. Spread-wise, though, the Nets have the second-best ATS mark in the NBA. Brooklyn is at its point spead best, too, on the road where it constantly gets undervalued. The Nets have covered 62 percent of their away matchups this season. The Pistons are playing their best ball winning four in a row. They will have the two best players on the court in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Brooklyn, however, has some emerging young talent with D'Angelo Russell back healthy, breakout-guard Spencer Dinwiddie, emerging rookie Jarrett Allen and intriguing Jalil Okafor. It's a bonus if Rondae Hollis-Jefferson can suit up having missed the past six games with a groin injury. The Pistons are at their worst when laying big points going 2-8 ATS the past 10 times as chalk of four or more points. Detroit also is 1-10-1 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning percentage of less than .400. It's going to be easy for the Pistons to overlook the Nets especially with the Clippers on tap. Detroit hosts LA on Friday. Normally that would be a ho-hum nonconference matchup, but it has turned into a grudge game following the Clippers trading Griffin to the Pistons for Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley.
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02-06-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -10 | Top | 125-105 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
Darn this spread is high. But I want the Warriors going for me here being rested in a huge revenge spot and drawing the Thunder at low ebb. Oklahoma City embarrassed Golden State, 108-91, at home on Nov. 23. The Warriors don't get embarrassed too often. That also was the only time during the past eight meetings the Thunder have covered against the Warriors. The Warriors should be fresh being idle for two days. The Thunder, by contrast, will be playing for the fourth time in six days. They are 1-4 since losing underrated Andre Roberson, their best defender, for the season because of a knee injury. This is a big number to lay. Understand. But the Warriors have the offense to overcome it ranking No. 1 in the major scoring categories, including points, shooting percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. The Thunder have allowed each of their last three opponents to make at least 13 3-pointers. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant are all in line for big games.
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02-06-18 | Suns +8 v. Lakers | 93-112 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
The Suns aren't going to have Devin Booker, who is their best player by far. But the Lakers are in a letdown spot and still will be minus Lonzo Ball. This is the Lakers' first home game since returning from a five-game road trip that concluded Sunday. They are coming off wins against the Nets and Thunder. The underdog and road team has covered the last four in the series. The Lakers lack the maturity to cover this big of a number in the letdown spot they are in. |
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02-06-18 | Nebraska +1.5 v. Minnesota | 91-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Nebraska has covered in its last seven road games. Minnesota is having a disastrous season. |
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02-06-18 | Wizards +6 v. 76ers | 102-115 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
The Wizards are 5-0 since losing John Wall to a knee injury. It's kind of ironic that Washington is playing its best ball since losing its best player. But the Wizards are doing a fantastic job of passing the ball recording 27 assists in each of their last five games, a franchise record. I prefer the 76ers taking points rather than laying. Philadelphia is 1-4 in its last five games. The 76ers have a lot of youthful talent that could be unfocused entering this matchup after all the celebrations going on in Philadelphia following the Eagles winning the Super Bowl.
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02-06-18 | Rockets v. Nets +10.5 | 123-113 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
There are two key handicapping factors when it comes to beating the NBA - sometimes going against logic and taking advantage of situations. Both apply here. The Rockets should bury the Nets - on paper. But this spot sets up well for Brooklyn. Houston goes from just having impressively beaten the Spurs and Cavaliers in nationally televised games to playing the 19-win Nets and their cast of no-names. The Rockets also have a much tougher game on deck when they play at the Heat on Wednesday. Before dispatching the Spurs and Cavaliers in double-digit style, the Rockets hosted the Suns and Magic. Those two teams have fewer victories than Brooklyn. The Rockets defeated the Suns by 11 and Magic by seven. Houston has covered only 32 percent of the time the past 29 times against sub .500 opponents. The Rockets also have failed to cover in five of their last six meetings versus the Nets. Brooklyn has been home for the last three games going 1-2. The Nets just lost 109-94 to the Bucks this past Sunday. Brooklyn coach Kenny Atkinson ripped his team after that loss. He's optimistic the Nets will play much better in this game. I am, too. The Nets have been huge money-makers as an underdog especially when catching four or more points going 21-11 (66 percent) in that role this season. The Rockets are talented enough, though, to cover a double-digit road spread here even if the Nets produce a strong effort. It's only fair to point that out. James Harden and Chris Paul can absolutely dominate. But if the Rockets do happen to build up a big lead, there would be no reason for Harden and Paul to play big minutes with a physical game in Miami looming Wednesday. So the backdoor should swing wide open if a garbage time scenario unfolds.
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02-05-18 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Dennis Smith Jr. has started to live up to his strong rookie hype. The Mavericks have gone 13-4 ATS the past 17 times they've been 'dogs when Smith has been in the lineup. They have covered in seven of their past nine road contests and their confidence is up after ending a five-game losings skid with a victory against the Kings this past Saturday. I realize the Clippers are much better than the Kings. But Dallas gets up for this opponent still holding a justifiable grudge from when DeAndre Jordan said he was going to sign with the Mavericks as a free agent and then went back on his word returning to the Clippers. Dallas has won three of the last five in the series, including defeating the Clippers, 108-82, at home on Dec. 2. The Mavericks' bench is as good if not stronger than the Clippers' reserves bolstered by the return of sparkplug point guard J.J. Barera. He had missed three games until returning to dish off 11 assists in 24 minutes against Sacramento. |
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02-05-18 | Rangers v. Stars -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
The Rangers have lost five of their last six games and are sinking fast. All five of their losses during this span have been by more than one goal. New York is dealing with multiple injuries, too. Already down Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich and Kevin Shattenkirk, the Rangers could be missing defensemen Jim Vesey and Marc Staal, who each left Saturday's 5-2 loss to Nashville with upper body injuries. New York has surrendered 24 goals in its last five games. Dallas has a strong home ice advantage. The Stars are 18-9 at home this season with five of their past six overall victories coming by two or more goals. Dallas is averaging five goals per game during its last two games. |
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02-05-18 | Siena +8 v. Fairfield | 65-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
The premise here is simple: Fairfield isn't good enough to lay this many points in a conference matchup. Siena is the better defensive team. Siena has a good history at Fairfield going 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 visits. The Saints also are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times being on the road playing a foe with a winning home record.
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02-04-18 | Tulsa v. South Florida +7.5 | 63-54 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Tulsa isn't very good on the road and is in a letdown spot. The Golden Hurricane have won only two true away games all season. They have dropped their last four road contests and failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 away matchups. Tulsa very well could overlook South Florida, too. The Golden Hurricane are coming off a huge 76-67 home upset victory against SMU. South Florida has begun to play better. The Bulls upset Tulane three games ago so they are capable.
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02-03-18 | Rockets v. Cavs +3.5 | 120-88 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Call it a hunch, but I believe the Cavaliers will show up hard today and protect their home floor against the Rockets. The Cavaliers just may be a better team minus Kevin Love. The Rockets are short-handed, too, with Eric Gordon out and Trevor Ariza questionable. LeBron James wants to prove that rumors of his going to the Warriors are pure speculation. His top priority is getting the Cavaliers straighten out. Cleveland has been a pure fade this season when laying points. But being a home 'dog in a game with much pride at stake is a different story.
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02-02-18 | Warriors -12.5 v. Kings | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
I want the Warriors going for me here and I'm willing to lay the wood. Not only does Golden State have revenge for a 110-106 shocking home loss to the Kings from Nov. 27, but it is coming off an embarrassing 30-point road loss to the Jazz this past Tuesday. The Warriors have had two full days off to think about that horrific loss to Utah. Sacramento, meanwhile, is fat and happy having just concluded a six-game road trip with an upset victory against the Pelicans on Tuesday. The Kings haven't been home since Jan. 17, a span of more than two weeks. They have failed to cover in five of their past six home contests. Golden State hasn't lost two games in a row all season. The Warriors aren't going to lose here. The question is can they cover this high road number? They didn't have Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant when they lost to the Kings earlier. Now the Warriors have all their key players healthy. They should be highly motivated and playing one of the five worst teams in the league. So this sure spells blowout to me
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