Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-27-22 | Jacksonville +8.5 v. Notre Dame | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Notre Dame has failed to cover its last five games. I see the Irish being overvalued again in this matchup. The Irish rely on their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation in 3-point percentage. But Jacksonville can frustrate Notre Dame with its defense. The Dolphins give up the 13th-fewest points in the nation at 58.9 and rank 27th in 3-point defense. Notre Dame has a far bigger game on deck than this non-conference matchup against an Atlantic Sun Conference opponent taking on No. 14 and ACC leader Miami on Friday. The Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS when meeting an above .500 foe. |
|||||||
12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart. East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. |
|||||||
12-26-22 | Clippers -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
I don't see Kwahi Leonard and Paul George allowing the Clippers to lose to the Pistons. LA was on a 5-1 SU and ATS run until its last game - a 119-114 loss to the hot 76ers on the road. The Clippers blew a 20-point lead. Now the Clippers are stepping way down in class. Detroit has the worst record in the NBA. The Pistons have lost five in a row. The Pistons have lost by six or more points in 13 of their last 14 losses. The Clippers should maintain their full intensity after blowing a 20-point lead in their last game. The Clippers are 11-4 ATS the past 15 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Clippers rank No. 3 on defense. They give up 10 points fewer per game than the Pistons, who rank 29th defensively. |
|||||||
12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
The collapse of the Rams from Super Bowl champions to one of the worst teams in football is complete. They are the Rams in name only. There's really nothing Sean McVay can do with such limited weaponry and a mediocre defense that is without Aaron Donald. Russell Wilson had his best performance of the season when he last played two weeks ago throwing for three TD's and 247 yards in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs. Wilson rates a strong edge on Baker Mayfield and a Rams attack that ranks 30th in rushing, has backup wide receivers and has gone through 12 different offensive line combinations with scrubs manning all the spots. Denver has one of the best defenses in the league ranking No. 3 in total yards and scoring defense. The Rams managed only 156 yards last Monday against a Packers defense that isn't nearly as good as Denver's. The Rams have also become mediocre on defense giving up 24 or more points in five of their last six games. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 5 m | Show |
No Tyler Lockett, but the Seahawks still have enough firepower to compete against the high-powered Chiefs with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, DK. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. The Seahawks were averaging 28.3 points in their last three games before having to face the 49ers' top-ranked defense. The Seahawks are in must-win, desperation mode after going 1-4 in their last five games. None of Seattle's last six losses, though, have been by more than eight points. The Chiefs win, but don't cover spreads. Since Week 2, they are 10-3, but just 2-10-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times laying more than seven points. Pete Carroll has done one of his best coaching jobs. The Seahawks are on a mini-bye having last played Thursday. I expect Carroll to have a good game plan. The extra rest certainly can't hurt either. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Bills v. Bears +9 | 35-13 | Loss | -120 | 37 h 56 m | Show | |
The Bills are going to have to deal with Justin Fields in a real flat spot for them. Buffalo just accomplished what it set out to do during the previous three games - win division games against the Patriots, Jets and Dolphins. So motivation becomes an issue for Buffalo. The Bills are a pass-happy team. The weather won't be in their favor. Sustained winds up to 35 mph are in the forecast. There could be snow, too, with temperatures around 10 degrees. Thanks to Fields, the Bears lead the NFL in rushing. They are expected to get back Khalil Herbert, one of the more underrated running backs in the league. Fields has accounted for 20 touchdowns in his last nine games. His moves outside of the pocket can't be defended. The Bears' defense has been playing hard and has gotten healthier in the secondary. Since Week 2, the Bears have lost by more than nine points only twice. Turnovers could be a key here. The Bears have turned the ball over nine fewer times than Buffalo. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Saints v. Browns -3 | 17-10 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 55 m | Show | |
Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett and the Cleveland weather will be too much for the warm-weathered Saints. It's going to be bitter cold with the wind chill factor going below zero. That's not suitable for the Saints, who play on carpet inside their temperature-controlled dome. The Browns should control the trenches. The highly reliable Chubb should be featured. The Saints have permitted at least 148 yards rushing in four of their last six games. They just allowed the Falcons to produce 231 yards on the ground against them. Deshaun Watson should have less rust making his fourth start of the season while having a better grasp of Cleveland's offense. The Saints have a key offensive line injury with guard Cesar Ruiz out. They also will be minus their top wideout, Chris Olave. I see the Browns controlling both lines of scrimmage and thus the game. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 55 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by the Vikings' 11-3 record. They have outscored their opponents by just two points and have a losing point spread mark. The Vikings are fat and happy having already won their NFC North Division after coming from 33 points down to beat the Colts in overtime last week. Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell has already said his priority is having a healthy team ready for the playoffs. The Giants have more urgency. They are off a key, confidence-regaining road win against the Commanders to put them in the playoff hunt. Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can produce enough numbers against a Vikings' defense that ranks last in total yards and 28th in scoring defense to keep the Giants firmly in this game if not pull the outright upset. |
|||||||
12-23-22 | Bulls v. Knicks -5.5 | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
The Knicks are 2-0 versus the Bulls during the last 10 days. I see New York beating Chicago again. The Knicks had their eight-game win and covering streak snapped, 113-106, to the Raptors on Wednesday. New York has been playing extremely well and has a far superior defense to the Bulls. Chicago has won two in a row upsetting the Heat and Hawks on the road this past Tuesday and Wednesday. The Bulls have not won three in a row all season. This marks their fourth road game in six days. They are 8-22-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest and also 1-5 ATS during their last six visits to Madison Square Garden. |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Spurs +8.5 v. Pelicans | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
The Spurs are playing well going 4-2. The Pelicans are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games. New Orleans has been playing terrible defense, surrendering an average of 120.6 points during their last six games. The Pelicans will be without their two best players, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. So at this high of a spread, I'll take a shot on San Antonio. |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Air Force +4 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
This bowl game is a real letdown for Baylor, which beat Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl last season and had high expectations this season. Those expectations were not met as the Bears finished just 6-6. Air Force is one of the most unique and difficult teams to defend and practice against because the Falcons run the triple-option. The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the nation. They have the third-leading rusher in the country, fullback Brad Roberts, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while averaging more than 20 yards per completion. Air Force is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games because the Falcons are so unique and hard to prepare against. Baylor is just OK stopping the run. That's not good enough especially when combined with a perceived lack of motivation. Baylor averages 33.6 points a game. I just don't see the Bears having the ball that much. Air Force led the nation in time of possession at 36:22. No team limited the opposition to fewer plays than Air Force. Look for the Falcons to control the ball, eat clock keeping Baylor's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. |
|||||||
12-21-22 | Magic v. Rockets +1.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
There are a lot of highs and lows to the long NBA season. Orlando has been playing well. Houston not. But the timing sets up here for the Rockets. The Rockets are deep into a seven-game homestand. They have shot poorly in double-digit losses to the Trail Blazers and Spurs in their last two games. The Rockets should be primed for a much better effort, while the Magic are in letdown mode after their highly-surprising six-game win streak was halted in tough fashion by the Hawks two days ago, 126-125, on two free throws with 1.3 seconds left. The Magic had upset the Celtics twice on the road before losing to the Hawks, a team they had beaten three games ago. The Magic are dealing with rotation injuries. They also lost to the Rockets at home, 134-127, early last month. Orlando hasn't fared as well against sub .500 teams from a point spread perspective going 4-11 ATS the past 15 times they've played them. |
|||||||
12-21-22 | Kent State -3.5 v. New Mexico State | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Kent State checks a lot of boxes for me. I was high on the Golden Flashes and the MAC entering the season and I still feel that way. Kent State ranks 88th in scoring at 77.5 points a game and rates 38th in scoring defense holding opponents to 62 points a game. The Golden Flashes have an excellent all-around player in Sincere Carry, have major experience on New Mexico State and are the superior free throw shooting team. I make Kent State nearly a double-digit favorite so I'll lay this small number of points. |
|||||||
12-21-22 | Pistons +11.5 v. 76ers | 93-113 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
The 76ers can be excused for taking the Pistons lightly. Detroit has lost three in a row with the last one being in blowout fashion at home to the Jazz Tuesday night. I see the 76ers being a little too fat and happy here after sneaking past the Raptors, 104-101, in overtime two days ago. This will be the 76ers' sixth straight game against a bad-to-mediocre opponent. Detroit is 3-7 in its last 10 games. However, only one of those losses was by more than 11 points.
|
|||||||
12-21-22 | Murray State +7 v. Middle Tennessee | 67-83 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State giving up a season-high in points while being upset at home, 82-73, by Tennessee-Chattanooga in its last game raises a red flag for me. This is a short road trip for Murray State. I see the Racers keeping this close if not pulling the outright upset. Murray State is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times facing an above .500 foe. The Racers average more points per game than Middle Tennessee State and are a far better free throw shooting team than the Blue Raiders, who rank 335th in free throw percentage making only 63.8 percent of their free throws. |
|||||||
12-21-22 | St. John's v. Villanova -4.5 | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
St. John's has had only one true road game - and the Red Storm lost that one to Iowa State, 71-60, earlier this month. I don't trust the Red Storm away from home especially against Villanova, which is coming on. The Wildcats are 4-0 since big man Cam Whitmore, their third-leading scorer, returned four games ago. The Wildcats have knocked off Oklahoma, Boston College, Penn and Saint Joseph's during this span. |
|||||||
12-20-22 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -3.5 | 84-82 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Both Pittsburgh and Syracuse have stepped up their games after slow starts. I just see the Orange's defense and home-court being too much for Pittsburgh to overcome. The Orange are 5-0 this month with two of the wins coming against Notre Dame and Georgetown. Syracuse ranks No. 1 in the ACC in defensive field goal percentage and blocked shots. The Orange also are averaging nearly eight steals a game. I don't see the Panthers being efficient enough with the basketball and hitting enough outside shots to loosen up the Orange inside. |
|||||||
12-20-22 | Jazz -2 v. Pistons | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
It's time to find out about the Jazz. Utah is 17-16, but in danger of dropping to .500 for the first time this season after consecutive blowout losses to the the Bucks on Saturday and Cavaliers last night. I see the Jazz getting back on track here, though, dropping way, way down in class. Detroit is 8-24. That's the second-worst record in the NBA. The Pistons not only can't finish games, but they can't put together four decent quarters. All of Detroit's last 18 defeats have been by more than two points. The Jazz have covered four of the last five times when playing a below .400 percentage opponent. Utah also has a strong covering history in Detroit going 13-4 ATS the past 17 times there. |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Hornets +10.5 v. Kings | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Charlotte often is underpriced on the road. It's a reason why the Hornets are 23-11-2 (68%) during their last 36 away contests. I find this to be another good spot to back the Hornets on the road. The Hornets have lost eight in a row. Nobody wants them. The Kings are playing well. This has caused what I see to be overinflation on Sacramento in this matchup. The spot is this: The Kings open a six-game homestand. This is their first home contest in 15 days. They just concluded a six-game road trip with a pair of victories. They've been on East Coast time during their entire trip. The Kings can be forgiven if their full concentration isn't there against this opponent, who they beat, 115-108, in Charlotte earlier this season. I don't see the Hornets losing this game by double-digits. |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
Making a trip to Lambeau Field in December is not fun for the warm-weathered Rams. This is doubly so because the Rams are out of contention at 4-9. The Packers aren't much better at 5-8, but they still have playoff hope - if they win this game. The elements and injury situation sets up for Green Bay. The Rams' offense is decimated and their best defender, superstar tackle Aaron Donald, is out for a third straight week because of a high ankle sprain. There is a 70 percent chance of snow although wind shouldn't factor being in the 5-10 mph range. This is Packers weather and they have the ground game to take advantage with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Aaron Rodgers still is playing at a high level. The Packers also have found their first decent kick returner in many years, Keisean Nixon. The Rams won the Super Bowl last season yet the Packers beat them at Lambeau Field, 36-28, last year with Rodgers accounting for three scores. Now the Rams' offense is down to Baker Mayfield, who is on his third team this season, Cam Akers and a host of backup wideouts behind an offensive line full of scrubs. Everything is in place for the Packers to beat the Rams by more than a touchdown. |
|||||||
12-18-22 | Belmont +5.5 v. Chattanooga | 83-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
This should be a wild game with lots of points. Belmont is the 11th-best 3-point shooting team in the nation. Tennessee-Chattanooga ranks 333rd in 3-point defense. The Mocs are terrible in defensive transition. The tempo should be fast here, which is the way Belmont likes it. So I'm going to take this many points with the Bruins, who should be live the entire game with their 3-point accuracy. |
|||||||
12-18-22 | Chiefs -14 v. Texans | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
The Texans don't have too many good players and they will be missing some of those players. Among those out for Houston are cornerback Derek Stingley, wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and its best skill position player, running back Dameon Pierce. This leaves Davis Mills, a garbage quarterback, with nothing but garbage as weapons. The Chiefs can name their score. I predict they will name it in blowout fashion. Kansas City jumped in front of Denver, 27-0, last week before holding on for a 34-28 win. The Texans nearly upset the Cowboys last Sunday before losing in the final minute, 27-23. That might have been the Texans' Super Bowl. So I don't see the Chiefs taking the Texans lightly here. That's all that matters because the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, if not all of football, while the Texans are the worst. |
|||||||
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
The Bills are in a perfect spot to exact their revenge for an oddball, 21-19, road loss to the Dolphins back in Week 3. Buffalo lost to Miami despite outgaining the Dolphins by 285 yards. That game was played in brutally humid South Florida conditions back in September. This matchup is just the opposite with a winter storm watch issued. Cold, possibly heavy snow and gusting winds are in the forecast. The warm-weather Dolphins with their warm-weather QB, Tua Tagovailoa, are not equipped for this type of weather element. The Dolphins rely on precision passing timing with Tagovailoa getting the ball out fast to speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has never even played in temperatures below 37 degrees. The Dolphins have been exposed as big-game frauds the past two weeks by the 49ers and Chargers. They managed just a combined 521 total yards of offense in those games. The Chargers were minus several of their best defenders, including safety Derwin James and pass rusher Joey Bosa. MIami is giving 31.4 points on the road this season while going 1-5 ATS in their last six away matchups. Josh Allen is much more comfortable in cold weather games. I expect the Bills to score against a mediocre Miami defense and the Dolphins' offense unable to counterattack. |
|||||||
12-17-22 | Jazz v. Bucks -3.5 | 97-123 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
After blowing out the Warriors at home this past Tuesday, the Bucks went into Memphis and got embarrassed by the Grizzlies, 142-101, two days ago. Now the Bucks return home highly motivated. Milwaukee goes on the road for five games following this matchup. So I'm convinced the Bucks will have their concentration and focus. The Bucks are 4-0 ATS after not covering the spread in their previous game. Utah is off a pair of satisfying home wins against the Pelicans beating them on Tuesday and in overtime on Thursday. |
|||||||
12-17-22 | Florida +8.5 v. Oregon State | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
OK, no Anthony Richardson for Florida. But still too much respect is being given to Oregon State in this Las Vegas Bowl matchup. Florida is SEC. The Gators are 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season. Their only loss by more than 10 points came to Georgia. Oregon State is Pac-12 and not even prime Pac-12 like USC, UCLA, Utah and Oregon. The Beavers don't have the athletes Florida has. Jack Miller III is set to make his first college start replacing Richardson, who opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Miller was CJ Stroud's backup at Ohio State before transferring. The Beavers rank 75th in pass defense. Miller can rely on a 16th-ranked ground attack, although dual threat Richardson was responsible for some of the Gators' impressive rushing figures. Oregon State is going with its own backup quarterback as a starter. Ben Gulbranson replaced injured Chance Nolan at the start of October. The Beavers rank 103rd in passing. They count on freshman running back Damien Martinez. Oregon State won its big game with a 38-34 come-from-behind win against Oregon on Nov. 26. That victory, more than this minor bowl game, is the Beavers' season highlight. Both teams had the opportunity to play Pac-12 power Utah. The Gators upset the Utes, 29-26, at home while Utah buried Oregon State, 42-16, at home. |
|||||||
12-16-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Manhattan -3.5 | 78-67 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
This may be the only time that I lay points with Manhattan all season. But it's justified because the Jaspers are hosting Central Connecticut State. Manhattan is 3-6, but has a winning ATS mark. The Blue Demons have a losing ATS mark and are 1-10 overall. Giving home-court edge, I would rate Manhattan as double-digits better than Central Connecticut State. The Jaspers are much better statistically. The Blue Demons rank 342nd offensively and 336th in defensive field goal percentage. |
|||||||
12-16-22 | Troy +1.5 v. UTSA | Top | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
Both teams are 11-2, are conference champions and each own 10-game win streaks. Troy won the Sun Belt. Texas San Antonio captured Conference USA. The difference is Troy continues to be underrated by the linesmaker. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS. I believe they should be favored in this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando, Fla. Troy has the necessary defense to slow down the Roadrunners, who average 38.7 points. The Trojans rank eighth in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points per game and are 19th in total defense giving up 325.3 yards a game. The Trojans recorded 39 sacks, bad news for San Antonio's sixth-year QB Frank Harris. Linebacker Carlton Martial was the best defensive player in the Sun Belt. The Roadrunners don't have nearly as good a defense as Troy, nor do they have the bowl pedigree having lost each of the past two seasons in bowl games. Troy has won its past four bowl games. The Trojans got their offense in gear behind QB Gunnar Watson and running back KImani Vidal. The Trojans averaged 42.3 points in their last three games. The Roadrunners rank 90th in total defense and 101st in pass defense. |
|||||||
12-15-22 | UL - Lafayette v. McNeese State +13 | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Too many points for Louisiana Lafayette to be laying in this neighborhood rivalry matchup. McNeese should draw plenty of fan support with tickets specially priced at $5. The Ragin Cajuns have a far superior 9-1 record. But the 3-7 Cowboys have played a tough schedule and have a winning point spread mark. During their last five games, McNeese State played Iowa State, Northern Iowa, who they upset as 15 1/2-point road 'dogs, Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin and Baylor. |
|||||||
12-13-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
The Lakers are improving, but they are still levels below the Celtics, who are in the argument for best team in the NBA. Boston concludes its six-game road trip here having lost two in a row getting blown out by the Warriors and Clippers last night. The Celtics should be motivated following those humiliations. They are 17-7 ATS following a loss. The Celtics are a strong road team, too, going 24-11-1 ATS in their past 36 away contests. The Lakers just finished their own six-game road trip with a victory against the Pistons this past Sunday night. They find the Celtics waiting for them in LA. It's the Lakers' first home game this month. So they might not have their full concentration being away from home for two weeks. The Celtics have covered six of the last seven in the series. |
|||||||
12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
I like the Cavaliers to cover against the Spurs even if they remain without Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Love. So I'm going to take an early position on them anticipating the line would climb if Mitchell were to play. Cleveland blew a 17-point lead to the Thunder, but still won by eight points this past Saturday despite not having Michell and Love. The Spurs are on a min-winning streak having beat the Rockets and upset the Heat this past Saturday on the road. But the Spurs still are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and own the worst home mark in the NBA at 4-10. San Antonio is a below average rebounding team. The Spurs also give up the most points in the NBA. The Cavaliers should dominate the boards and inside scoring with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Spurs have been without their best rebounder and shot blocker, Jakob Poeltl, who has missed the past five games with a knee injury. Cleveland has covered during each of its last four visits to San Antonio. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Chargers | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
The Dolphins are 8-1 SU, 6-3 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game. The one loss came this past Sunday at San Francisco when Miami ran into the top defense in the league. The Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. They are likely to face the Dolphins' record-setting wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan. James is in the discussion for best safety in the league. Miami had produced 30 or more points in four straight games prior to the 49ers. The Chargers aren't going to be able to slow down Miami. Justin Herbert has too many injuries around him to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense. LA is averaging 21.4 points in its last seven games. LA has not defeated an above .500 team all season. The step up is too high for the Chargers. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Tom Brady versus Brock Purdy. Yeah, I'll take 3 1/2 with that The 49ers have become the best defense in the NFL. But they may not have their most disruptive force with Nick Bosa questionable with a hamstring injury. The Buccaneers aren't too shabby defensively either. They rank fifth in scoring defense giving up 18.3 points a game and have the fourth-most sacks. Tampa Bay is 14-5-2 ATS during its last 21 December games. The 49ers have won five in a row since losing to the Chiefs. Miami was their only win against a winning club, though, during this span. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Panthers +4 v. Seahawks | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
The Panthers are trying their hardest to earn trust. They are 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Interim coach Steve Wilks has won the locker room in his bid to become permanent head coach. Sam Darnold is the right quarterback choice. Seattle is in a division sandwich. The Seahawks got past the surprisingly stubborn Rams, 27-23, on a late TD pass from Geno Smith last Sunday and have their biggest game of the season on deck hosting the 49ers next week. The Seahawks are facing an underrated Carolina defense being severely banged-up at running back. The Panthers have held their last foes to an average of 12.6 points. The Panthers should be rested and ready coming off their bye week. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals -5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
The Bengals experienced a frightful Halloween losing, 32-13, on the road to the Browns. Cincinnati is much the superior team. I see the Bengals getting their revenge. Take away that game and the Bengals would be 9-1 SU, 10-ATS. They are playing well. Cleveland isn't. While Joe Burrow has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last seven games, Deshaun Watson is off a horrendous season debut generating no touchdowns against the Texans. Watson's passer rating was 54.3, a career-worst. |
|||||||
12-10-22 | Portland State +1.5 v. Cal Poly | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home. Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points. The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game. Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings. |
|||||||
12-10-22 | Jazz +8 v. Nuggets | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
In the Zig and Zag world of the NBA, this spot sets up for the Jazz. Utah knocked off the Warriors by one point at home on Wednesday, but then the Jazz were beaten by an aroused Timberwolves squad, 118-108, last night. It was emotional for Minnesota because of Rudy Gobert returning back to Utah to face his old teammates. The Jazz are 10-3-2 ATS following a double-digit home loss. Denver, on the other hand, stole a victory at Portland last night, 121-120, on Jamal Murray's 3-pointer in the final second. Denver is 8-19 ATS following a victory. It's a plus if the Jazz get back Lauri Markkanen, who missed last night's game due to illness. But back for Utah is point guard Mike Conley. |
|||||||
12-09-22 | Bruins -1.5 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
Death, taxes and the Bruins beating the Coyotes. Those are about the only three certain things in life. Boston has defeated Arizona 19 straight times. I'd be shocked if the Bruins didn't make it 20 in a row against the Coyotes, who haven't defeated Boston in 12 years. The Bruins are tied for the most points in the NHL. They rank first defensively and second in goals scored per game. The key question is can Boston beat Arizona by more than one goal so as to reduce laying such high vigorish? Yes. This is the Coyotes' first home game after a record-tying 14 consecutive road games that began back on Nov. 5. Not surprisingly, Arizona ran out of gas losing its last six games with the most recent defeat occurring two days ago to Edmonton by six goals. This marks the Coyotes' fifth game in nine days. They also have the distraction of finally being home after being gone close to five weeks. The Bruins rolled past the Coyotes, 6-3, at home in the first meeting between the two teams this season. Boston has won by multiple goals in 11 of its last 12 victories. |
|||||||
12-09-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Pacers | 111-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
The Pacers are a below average defensive and rebounding team. This isn't an ideal spot for them either returning home following a seven-game, 13-day road trip that concluded Wednesday night. Indiana is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day's rest. The Magic and Rockets are the only teams the Pacers have been favored against by this many points. It's going to be difficult for the Pacers to have their full concentration having been gone from home since Nov. 26. The Wizards don't have injured Bradley Beal, but Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma are playing well. The Wizards are frustrated having lost four in a row since a 15-point home win against the Timberwolves. Look for Washington to keep this close if not pull the outright upset. |
|||||||
12-09-22 | Queens NC v. High Point -5.5 | 87-79 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
I don't see High Point getting enough respect with this point spread against Queens, which is in its first season of Division I. High Point averages 86.3 points a game. The Panthers also rank in the top 35 in 3-point defense. The Panthers held their own against UNLV. They've beaten North Florida, Elon, Tennessee State, Central Michigan and Furman in impressive fashion during their last game, 85-82, as an 11 1/2-point road 'dog. Queens has played an easier schedule. The Royals' last game, for instance, was against Paine. |
|||||||
12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
Josh Jacobs, Davonte Adams and Maxx Crosby have lifted the Raiders back into playoff contention leading Las Vegas to three straight victories. The Raiders got hot last season to sneak into the playoffs and they're showing signs of repeating that this season. The Rams, on the other hand, are as dead as Jimmy Hoffa. Sean McVay thinks so little of backup quarterbacks Bryce Perkins and John Wolford, who has a neck injury, that the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield on waivers. The Browns gave up on Mayfield and now the Panthers had their fill of Mayfield. Whoever is behind center for the Rams has to deal with backups - some fourth and fifth-stringers - at just about every offensive position. The Rams have had to use a different offensive line in every game because of multiple injuries. LA has no ground game and is minus its two best wideouts, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. The Raiders are playing much better defense, limiting opposing running backs to 3.07 yards during the last three weeks, which is the third-lowest mark during this span. Las Vegas also has 11 sacks during its last three games. Jacobs is the hottest runner in the NFL. He's averaging 179 yards rushing in his last four games. The Rams' defense is far less fierce up front minus Aaron Donald, who is out, along with run-stuffing nose guard A'Shawn Robinson. So Jacobs is in line for another huge performance. Adams is averaging 137.6 receiving yards in his last three games. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is the Rams' best player in their secondary and he's been playing poorly. The Rams put forth a great effort this past Sunday against the Seahawks, a team the Raiders beat. However, the Rams came up short, 27-23, against Seattle. I doubt the Rams produce another ''A'' game. The Raiders are likely to have better, crowd support than the home Rams. |
|||||||
12-07-22 | Celtics v. Suns +2 | 125-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Normally I don't like to step in against the Celtics, especially when they are playing well like they are now having won seven of their last eight games. But I feel confident doing it here. Chris Paul is expected to play after missing the last 14 games with an injured heel. That could provide an added spark for Phoenix. But I'm fine with the Suns even if Paul doesn't play. Phoenix still is very good without Paul. The Suns should be up for this matchup having lost, 130-111, to the Mavericks in Dallas two days ago. Phoenix was 7-1 before that loss to Dallas. The Suns are 10-3 ATS during the last 13 meetings against the Celtics. They have covered six of their past seven times at home versus Boston. The Celtics are playing their third road game in four days, flying in from Toronto. This also is Boston's seventh game in 11 days. Phoenix is in action for the third time in five days. The Suns had two easy games, though, playing the Rockets and Spurs before losing to the Mavericks. Plus they are home. So their fatigue factor is much less than Boston's. |
|||||||
12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
The Pacers may be excused if they are a no-show in this matchup against the Timberwolves. This marks the finale of a seven-game, 11-day road trip for Indiana. The Pacers surprised the Warriors with a 112-104 victory as a 12 1/2-point 'dog this past Monday playing without six players, including Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Chris Durate. Haliburton and Turner are questionable while Durate remains out with an ankle injury. Indiana is 0-4 ATS following a cover and 0-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Timberwolves won their first game without injured Karl-Anthony Towns beating the Grizzlies by eight points. But then in their second game without him, this past Saturday, they fell 135-128 to the Thunder as 5 1/2-point home favorites. The Timberwolves lost their poise in the game. Rudy Gobert was ejected early and Minnesota was whistled for five technical fouls. That was Minnesota's last game. I see the Timberwolves bouncing back having had three full days to rest, recuperate and redeem themselves at home. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS when playing after three or more days of rest. Minnesota also has defeated Indiana the last three times. This includes a 115-101 road win on Nov. 23. |
|||||||
12-07-22 | Pistons v. Pelicans -10 | 98-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
I want to fade the Pistons following their 116-96 surprising road beatdown of the Heat last night. That was Detroit's biggest margin of victory all season. The Pelicans are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their last three games have all been victories by 15 or more points against the Raptors, Spurs and Nuggets. New Orleans should be rested and ready, too, having last played on Sunday. The Pelicans won't be taking the Pistons lightly now after what Detroit did to Miami. The Pistons rank 28th defensively. New Orleans is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. |
|||||||
12-06-22 | Lakers v. Cavs -3.5 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
Cleveland returns home after losing, 92-81, to the Knicks this past Sunday. The Cavaliers are 5-8 on the road, but 10-1 at home. Going back to last season, the Cavaliers are 11-1-1 ATS during their last 13 games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. The Cavaliers average eight more points per game at home and shoot 49.3 percent from the field compared to hitting 46 percent of their field goals on the road. The Lakers are playing well, winners of three in a row. LA is 2-0 on its current road swing upsetting the Bucks this past Friday and defeating the Wizards on Sunday. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when meeting an above .500 opponent, though. The Cavaliers should be the more motivated team defending home turf plus taking on LeBron James, their former face of the franchise. The teams met in LA on Nov. 6 and the Cavaliers won, 114-100. |
|||||||
12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs -3 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
Home field: Check mark to Buccaneers. It's an off-surface, too, for the visiting Saints. They are used to turf not grass. Quarterback: Check mark to Tom Brady over Andy Dalton. Defense: Check mark to the Buccaneers' fifth-ranked defense compared to the Saints' 21st ranked defense. These are three strong handicapping factors as to why I believe the Buccaneers will beat the Saints by more than a field goal. The Saints are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four true road games. They haven't won on a grass field all season, including last week when they were shut out by the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Not only is Brady much superior to turnover-prone Dalton, but he has better receiving weapons with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin is coming off his best game of the year since suffering a knee injury last December. The Saints could be down two members of their secondary with cornerback Marshon Lattimore missing the last seven games due to an abdominal injury and safety P.J. Williams suffering a knee injury last week. Brady entered this Week 13 leading the NFC in passing yards. He's been picked off just once since opening week. Dalton has been intercepted six times in his last four games. Tampa Bay gives up the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL. The Bucs rank fifth in pass defense and ninth in total defense. The Saints rank 21st in scoring defense. They have the fewest takeaways in the league with just six. |
|||||||
12-05-22 | Bucks -9 v. Magic | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
The Bucks are in the argument for best team in the NBA. The Magic have the worst record in the league at 5-19. They've lost eight in a row with their last five defeats coming by an average of 15.6 points. Milwaukee is 9-1-1 ATS during its last 11 visits to Orlando. So why are the Bucks laying less than double digits? The answer is they shouldn't be since Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday - their three best players - are rested and expected to play. They sat out during the Bucks' 105-96 road win against the Hornets this past Saturday after Milwaukee had played on Friday night. It's the Magic who are the banged-up team. Orlando has been without center Wendell Carter Jr., point guard Jalen Suggs along with Gary Harris, Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke. This has weakened an already weak player rotation. The Bucks have one of the deepest benches in the league. So I don't see Milwaukee coughing up a huge lead. |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Pacers +3.5 v. Blazers | 100-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers return to Portland following a 116-111 road victory against the Jazz last night. They'll find an angry Pacers squad there to greet them. After nipping the Lakers on the road this past Monday, the Pacers have gotten blown out in their last two games, road defeats to the Kings on Wednesday and Jazz on Friday. Indiana has a strong recent bounce back record covering four of the last five times following a non-cover. The Pacers have been a money-maker covering 12 of their last 17 games. Portland has failed to cover in its last four home games. The Trail Blazers could get back star guard Damian Lillard. If that's the case, though, the line could go up more. Lillard figures to be rusty after missing the past seven games. Lillard's return could impact Anfernee Simons, who has been on fire since Lillard has been out, while also causing a letdown among his teammates. |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for the frustrated Islanders. The spot sets up well for them to bury the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks just snapped an eight-game losing streak by beating the Rangers, 5-2, on Saturday. Chicago had surrendered 37 goals in their previous seven games. The Islanders have lost their last two games, to the Flyers on the road and two days ago at home to the Predators in a game that was closer than the 4-1 final indicates. The Islanders are a far better team than the Blackhawks, who rank 28th defensively. |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Seahawks -6.5 v. Rams | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
The Rams have no hope this season and Sean McVay knows it. He admits he doesn't have the players to compete anymore. The oddsmaker has not fully grasped this yet. Minus Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and going with their 11th different offensive line combination, the 3-8 Rams are dead. They have lost five in a row, averaging 14.8 points during this span. Seattle isn't about to feel sorry for the Rams. The Seahawks have lost two in a row with the latter coming in overtime to the Raiders. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. Geno Smith is playing his finest ball, a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. He's helped the Seahawks average 26.5 points, fourth-best in the league. Seattle has averaged even more during their last four road games producing an average of 37 points. Losing Donald really hurts the Rams' defense and their offense is broken, forced to use scrubs at quarterbacks and fourth and fifth-string type offensive linemen. |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Packers -4 v. Bears | Top | 28-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
Much has been made about the Packers' steep descent this season. But look at the Bears. They are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with five consecutive losses. Injuries and trades have made their defense a laughing stock. Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears, beating them 24 of 29 times. Rodgers has completed 76 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 16-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games versus Chicago. Rodgers is banged-up. But the Packers finally have their bye next week. So I expect Rodgers to be going all out. He'll be looking at a decimated Chicago secondary that is missing three starters, including both safeties. Chicago has the fewest sacks in the NFC with 16. Matt LaFleur does one thing consistently right - and that's beat the Bears. He's the only Green Bay coach to win his first seven regular-season games against Chicago. Justin Fields is expected to start, but he'll be missing his No. 1 wide receiver with Darrell Mooney done for the season with an ankle injury. Fields is a tremendous runner, but the Bears likely will be cautious with him. Fields has an AC-joint shoulder sprain and the Bears have their bye next week. The Packers also may have finally found a special teams weapon as Keisean Nixon had two 50-plus yard returns against the Eagles last week. |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Commanders v. Giants +2.5 | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
The Commanders are 6-1 in their last seven games. They've gotten a big boost since making a QB switch from toxic Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke. But I see the Commanders running out of gas in this divisional matchup. The Giants are getting healthier and are on a mini-bye having last played on Thanksgiving. The Commanders haven't had their bye week yet. I like Brian Daboll more than Ron Rivera. I favor Daniel Jones above Heinicke and I certainly like Saquon Barkley far more than any Washington skill position player. Barkley's matchup is enhanced by the Commanders missing highly underrated linebacker Cole Holcomb. Barkley gets another boost with the expected return of good-looking rookie offensive right tackle Evan Neal from a knee injury. Jones has a history of playing well against Washington. He has nine TD passes against them, which is four more than he has thrown against any other opponent. Heinicke has provided an emotional spark to the Commanders. Talent-wise, though, he's not very good. He's short and doesn't have a strong arm. Heinicke has a 7-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his six starts. The Giants have covered five of the last seven times in this series. |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Steelers v. Falcons +1 | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has yet to win two in a row this season. I don't see it happening here. It's a tough spot for the Steelers traveling on a short week following an upset road victory against the Colts this past Monday. Pittsburgh has failed to cover seven of its last 10 away contests. Cordarrelle Patterson gives the Falcons the most dynamic skill position player on the field. He's also a star kick returner. I trust veteran Marcus Mariota against the Steelers' 30th-ranked pass defense more than Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett. Pickett has a passer rating of 73.5 and a 3-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers' top two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, are both banged-up. Harris will be a go, but Warren's status is up in the air. |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Clemson v. North Carolina +7.5 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 59 m | Show |
The combination of North Carolina star QB Drake Maye and Clemson being eliminated from the College Football Playoffs helps put me on the underdog Tar Heels. North Carolina isn't going to be involved in the College Football Playoffs either, but the Tar Heels knew that. They've been pointing to this matchup for weeks knowing they had qualified for this title game. I think that factored in the Tar Heels not playing well in their last two games, upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State after having won nine of their first 10 games. There was no incentive for them. There will here. There's a huge gap in quarterbacks. Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has been a major disappointment never adequately replacing Trevor Lawrence. Maye, on the other hand, has put up superstar numbers - 3,847 passing yards and 35 TD passes along with six rushing TD's. He leads the nation in total offense with 4,476 yards. Uiagalelei was terrible last season and he has been inconsistent this season even getting benched in spots. Notre Dame defeated Clemson by 21 points. North Carolina fell to the Irish by 13 points. That was the Tar Heels' only defeat of more than four points. |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
When is playing in the Big Ten title game a letdown? The answer is when you're Michigan and you just defeated previously undefeated Ohio State in Columbus last week, 45-23. Beating the Buckeyes is the highlight of the Wolverines' season. It's going to be difficult for Michigan to turn around a week later and cover this large of a number against a feisty Purdue team that has nothing to lose. Purdue has a winning record in 13 games the past five years taking on ranked foes. The Boilermakers catch a huge break that the Wolverines will be without their star running back Blake Corum, who is out with a knee injury. |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons +8 | Top | 125-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Spot means a lot in the NBA. This is a good spot for the Pistons. Yes those 5-18 rebuilding Pistons, who are minus their top player, Cade Cunningham. He's out with a shin injury. The Mavericks are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending world champion Warriors at home on national TV two days ago, 116-113. It was the Warriors who eliminated Dallas in the Western Conference Finals last season. After this game, the Mavericks travel to New York to play the Knicks on Saturday. It's a huge revenge spot for the Mavericks. The Knicks embarrassed the Mavericks, beating them by 30 points in Dallas this past March. So this game not only is a letdown situation for the Mavericks, but a look-ahead spot, too, for them. I don't expect Dallas to bring its ''A'' game. Expect the Pistons to go all-out in this one. Detroit has been banged up, but got back underrated Isaiah Stewart against the Knicks. Stewart put up 19 points versus New York. Stewart is the Pistons' top rebounder. Still unconvinced? OK, how about this: Despite their 5-18 record, the Pistons have a winning point spread mark. Dallas doesn't. The Mavericks are 5-14-1 (26 percent) ATS. Dallas is 1-10-1 ATS the past 12 times after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Mavericks also have lost and failed to cover during their last five road games. They are 1-7 away from home with that lone victory occurring in overtime against the Nets in October. |
|||||||
11-29-22 | Warriors v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
The Mavericks have been pointing to this marquee nationally-televised home matchup for a long time. It was Golden State who ended Dallas' season last year beating the Mavericks in five games during the Western Conference Finals. The Mavericks committed fewer turnovers than the Warriors during that series, but were done in by cold shooting. The Warriors' 27th-ranked defense has regressed very much since then especially on the road. Golden State is 2-9 SU and ATS away from home this season with its only road victories coming against the Rockets and Timberwolves. Dallas is on a four-game losing streak. But those losses have come to good teams losing to the Nuggets and then the last three on the road to the Celtics, Raptors and Bucks. Now the Mavericks are back home where they have covered seven of the last 10 times when hosting the Warriors. |
|||||||
11-29-22 | VMI +6 v. Presbyterian | 57-72 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
VMI isn't a great team by any stretch. But the Keydets average 77.3 points and should not be an underdog to Presbyterian. Presbyterian, losers of six in a row, could be the worst shooting team in the country. The Blue Hose only average 60.6 points. They are shooting 38.1 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from 3-point range. They lack size, too, and are terrible from the free throw line at 62.7 percent. I think the oddsmaker is way off making the Blue Hose a favorite especially in this mid-size price range. |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
Since firing Frank Reich, the Colts are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS upsetting the Raiders on the road and losing to the Eagles by one point at home. The controversial hiring of Jeff Saturday has looked good so far. The players have responded to him. The most disappointing part of the Colts' season has been their offensive line. If there' one thing Saturday, the long-time former Pro Bowl center for the Colts, knows something about it's an offensive line. He can get it fixed because there is talent there. There is also skill position talent. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy. He's rushed for 231 yards in his last two games. Matt Ryan is a level higher than rookie Kenny Pickett right now. Pickett has thrown three TD passes and been picked off eight times. He's been sacked 14 times in his last three games. The Steelers are 3-7 and have lost four straight road games. They entered this week ranked 26th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points a game. The Colts have the better record and their defense entered the week giving up the 11th fewest points per game at 20. Indianapolis ranked fifth in pass defense. The Colts give up 5.0 yards per play and 307.6 yards per game compared to the Steelers allowing 5.8 yards per play and 375.5 yards a game. Pittsburgh went into this week ranked 29th in scoring offense, averaging just 16.3 points a game. The Steelers won't have their second-best running back, Jaylen Warren. He's out with a hamstring injury. Both teams should be highly motivated playing on national TV. But the Steelers' 37-30 home loss to the Bengals last week realistically ended any playoff hope. They are looking at their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. They should be in rebuild mode now. The Colts have some momentum with the coaching switch to Saturday. They are just two games back in the loss column in the AFC South Division. The bar is not set high here asking the Colts to win by a field goal. |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Hornets +10.5 v. Celtics | 105-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Celtics may be in letdown mode after beating the Wizards, 130-121, on Sunday despite not having Jason Tatum, who sat out with an ankle injury. Tatum is day-to-day. Boston might not be as intense playing for the second consecutive day and in action for the fourth time in six days hosting a lowly non-division opponent. The Hornets have been idle since Friday. Charlotte has been playing well, growing as the season progresses. The Hornets are 3-3 in their last six games, 4-1-1 ATS. Two of their losses during this span occurred on the road to the Wizards by four points and at the Cavaliers in overtime. Charlotte has a good long-term road ATS track record. I'll back the Hornets getting double-digits. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
It's last stand time now for the Packers. So you know Green Bay is going to give everything here. The Eagles can take a defeat. The Packers can not. It's easy to forget, but just two weeks ago the Packers came back from two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys. A loss last Thursday to the Titans erased much of that big win. The Titans happen to be 7-1 in their last eight games with the lone defeat during this span occurring to the Chiefs in overtime. Aaron Rodgers isn't having that bad of a season. He's in the top-six in touchdown passes, passing yards and completions. Rookie Christian Watson has come on to score five touchdowns in the last two games giving Rodgers a much needed deep threat. The Eagles' offense isn't as potent minus injured tight end Dallas Goedert. The Packers' defense is way overdue to step up. This is their chance. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Bucs -3 v. Browns | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -118 | 62 h 18 m | Show |
The Bucs enter this matchup at their most healthy and fresh off a bye. The Browns were hoping to hang on until Deshaun Watson could take over. But that didn't happen. Cleveland is 3-7 with six losses in its last seven games. Morale is bad with the Browns. So is their defense, which ranks tied for 31st giving up 26.9 points a game. Tom Brady has the passing attack to take advantage along with an upgraded ground attack thanks to more usage from outside threat Rachaad White, who is now properly factored into Tampa Bay's offense. Tampa Bay has a top-six defense and its offense that has the second-fewest turnovers. Cleveland has only eight takeaways, which ranks 29th. The Buccaneers held Seattle's star rookie running back Kenneth Walker to 17 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago in their last game. Walker had averaged 102 yards rushing during his past five games. This doesn't bode well for Nick Chubb, who the Browns heavily rely upon. The Buccaneers are going to be tough to run against with the Browns losing emerging center Ethan Pocic to a knee injury. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -5.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 29 m | Show | |
It's a nice bonus for the Jets if Justin Fields can't make the start for the Bears. That would force the Bears to start Trevor Siemian, a career journeyman and noted stiff. But even if the dynamic Fields plays, I like the Jets to beat the Bears by more than a touchdown now that they've made the quarterback switch from ineffective, morale-killer Zach Wilson to Mike White. The Jets have close to a Super Bowl-caliber defense. But Wilson has held New York's offense hostage with his inaccuracies, lack of big plays and interceptions. The Jets have good receiving weapons, especially with Corey Davis expected back to join Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims. White has proven himself. Just ask the Bengals. White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns in his first start last season leading the Jets to a 34-31 win against the AFC champion Bengals. The bar is much lower against a Bears defense that has surrendered an average of 35.5 points in their last four games. As well as Fields has played recently, it hasn't translated to victories because of the Bears' porous defense. Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven games, losers of four in a row. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Texans +14 v. Dolphins | 15-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
The Dolphins went into their bye last week off an impressive 39-17 victory against the Browns. But in their previous six games, the Dolphins lost to the Bengals, Jets and Vikings and beat the Steelers by 6, Lions by 4 and Bears by 3. So I find this spread to be inflated. Yes, the Dolphins are good this season. But they have flaws. They are not a great team that can cover two touchdowns. Great teams don't squeeze past the Steelers, Lions and Bears by a combined winning margin of 4.3 points. Miami might not have Raheem Mostert and their kicking game could be in trouble. Jason Sanders ranks fourth-from-the-bottom in field goal percentage accuracy and punter Thomas Morstead has been dealing with illness. The Texans should get a boost with a quarterback switch from David Mills to Kyle Allen. Mills has been terrible on the road. Allen is a career backup, but he might provide a spark here. He has Dameon Pierce to rely upon. Pierce leads all rookie running backs with 780 yards rushing and 915 scrimmage yards. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Lakers -2.5 v. Spurs | 143-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
I don't get this short number. These teams have met twice already within the last six days. The Lakers blasted the Spurs, 123-9, at home without LeBron James and then beat the Spurs again this time on the road last night, 105-94. James played in last night's game and committed a season-high nine turnovers. He'll be less rusty here. The Lakers started slow. But they are coming on now, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games. The lone defeat during this span was to the Suns. The Spurs are a strong fade right now. They are 1-12 in their last 13 games and have lost seven in a row. San Antonio ranks last in all the major defensive categories. Maybe the Spurs get right here. That could be a stretch. The Lakers have proven themselves the superior team. So I'll lay this short number. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Nevada +12.5 v. UNLV | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
UNLV's season began highly promising with the Rebels going 4-1. But the Rebels won't be going bowling having lost their past six games, including their last one as an 11-point road favorite against Hawaii. Nevada-Reno blew out the Rebels, 51-20, in last year's annual rivalry game at home. This one is at UNLV. The Wolf Pack have gone through a rebuilding season. They aren't good. But this has been an underdog series with the 'dog winning six of the last nine times straight-up. Nevada always gets up for this game more than the Rebels. UNLV may win based on a superior ground attack, but Nevada will be giving an all-out effort and should stay within double-digits. The Rebels just aren't strong enough to lay this high of a number. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Auburn +22.5 v. Alabama | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a monster rivalry game. The question is can Auburn can hang within three touchdowns of the Crimson Tide? Before this month, I would have said no. Now I say yes seeing how the Tigers have performed under interim coach Carnell Williams. Williams starred at Auburn before going on to the NFL playing for the Buccaneers. He has reignited a Tigers program that was dead earlier this season. Auburn is 3-0 ATS since Williams took over losing to Mississippi State in overtime as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog, edging Texas A&M and rolling past Western Kentucky. I trust the Tigers to play hard again for Williams especially in this matchup. Great expectations were expected of Alabama this season, but the Crimson Tide have been overrated with losses to Tennessee and LSU. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Cavs v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Cavaliers come into Milwaukee fat and happy after celebrating Thanksgiving having swept their four-game homestand. They'll find an angry Bucks team awaiting them. Milwaukee is 9-2 at home this season. However, one of its losses just occurred to the Bulls on Wednesday, 118-113. The Bucks buried the Cavaliers, 113-98, when the teams last met nine days ago in Milwaukee. That was the seventh time in the last nine tries the Bucks have covered against the Cavaliers at home. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the league averaging 30.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. The Bucks get back Wesley Matthews, too, to boost their rotation. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Lakers -3 v. Spurs | 105-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
The Lakers are playing better and have a great opportunity to win their first road game here, likely getting back LeBron James and taking on the pathetic Spurs. San Antonio is young and bad, losers of 11 of its last 12 games. The Spurs rank last in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Lakers certainly have the scorers to take advantage. The Lakers just blasted the Spurs, 123-92, at home this past Sunday. And that was without James. LA had won three in a row until falling to the Suns, 115-105, on the road three days ago. Time for the Lakers to begin a new win streak. They couldn't ask for an easier opponent. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Hawks v. Rockets +7.5 | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Rockets haven't played since Sunday. Not only will be they be rested, but the extra practice time should come in handy for such a young, developing team. So Atlanta could get ambushed here. The Hawks just ended the Kings' seven-game win streak with a 115-106 home win two days ago. The Hawks are 2-9 ATS after covering in their previous game. Atlanta is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arch, ranking 27th in 3-point shooting. The Rockets rank 11th in 3-point defense. They will make the Hawks earn their points in what should be a back-and-forth closer game than what the oddsmaker thinks. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri is tough at home going 4-2 with the losses coming to Georgia and Kentucky by four points each. That's the closest any team has come to beating undefeated Georgia this season. The Tigers can secure bowl eligibility with a victory. It's also a revenge spot for the Tigers. Arkansas won last year's game, 34-17. Previous to that, though, the Tigers had won five in a row in the series. Arkansas gained its bowl eligibility last week upsetting Mississippi, 42-27. The Razorbacks could suffer a letdown after that great win. This is just Arkansas' fourth true road game. The Razorbacks could be minus their second-leading tackler, linebacker Bumper Pool. He's dealing with hip and back injuries. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Vikings | 26-33 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
If you're impressed with the Vikings' 8-2 record don't be. Minnesota has a losing point spread record and has been outscored on the season. The Vikings were exposed at home by the Cowboys, 40-3, last Sunday. Minnesota lost its best offensive lineman, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, in the second quarter of the game due to a concussion. The Cowboys recorded seven sacks on 30 Minnesota dropbacks. The Patriots have a dominant defense, too, ranking No. 2 in giving up the fewest points per game at 16.9. New England ranks No. 2 to Dallas in sacks with 36. Matthew Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks. Kirk Cousins lacks mobility. He's going to have trouble against New England's pressure, well-coached defense. New England has a pair of good running backs and receiving depth. The Patriots produced nearly 300 yards of offense against a much superior Jets defense last week in cold weather. Now the Patriots are in a dome facing a banged-up Minnesota secondary. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Bills -9.5 v. Lions | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 17 m | Show |
Josh Allen and Co. won't have an easier defense to go against all season than Detroit. The Lions give up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also are likely to be minus their best defensive backfield player in cornerback Jeff Okudah, who is in concussion protocol. The Bills just played at Ford Field this past Sunday when their game was moved from Buffalo to Detroit. A fast track makes the Bills' up-tempo offense even more potent. The Lions have won three in a row beating the Giants, Bears and Packers. The Bills are a huge step up for them. Buffalo is overdue to play better after not producing an "A'' level game during the last four weeks since beating the Chiefs. Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when Jim Caldwell was its coach. Don't look for the Lions to end that streak here. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Jackson State +22.5 v. Michigan | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Michigan barely escaped Ohio at home in its last game, winning in overtime this past Sunday as a 14 1/2-point home favorite. Now the Wolverines are laying a big number against Jackson State, who has two very good players and plays in the underrated Southwestern Athletic Conference. I find this number to be too large so I'm on the underdog Tigers. Jackson State is 0-3 with losses to Abilene Christian, Tulsa and Little Rock by an average of six points. The Tigers are just two years removed from dominating the SWAC. Now they are rebuilding under first year head coach Mo Williams, a former NBA All-Star. Williams has two excellent players to build around in Ken Evans and Trace Young, who transferred from Wyoming. Jackson State is averaging 75.3 points a game. Michigan could have fewer fans than normal for this home contest due to Thanksgiving break. The Wolverines' focus may be off, too. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | 76ers v. Hornets -4.5 | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Surprised at this line? Don't be this spot sets up well for the Hornets. The 76ers are without their three best players, Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Yet they still beat the Nets, 115-106, last night in an emotional game. Now the 76ers have to turn around and play the Hornets, who are desperate for a victory and have gotten healthier. Charlotte is rested and ready having last played on Sunday. The 76ers are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 1-10 ATS versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Central Michigan v. High Point -4 | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Central Michigan went 7-23 last season under its first-year coach Tony Barbee. The Chippewas aren't going to be very good this year either. A lone victory against Eastern Illinois is not impressive. High Point has one of the best scorers in the nation, Jaden House. He's averaging 22.8 points. High Point is the ninth-highest scoring team in the nation. The Panthers have too much firepower for Central Michigan. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Chiefs -5 v. Chargers | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 32 m | Show | |
The Chargers nearly upset the Chiefs back in Week 2. If it weren't for a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown, the Chargers just might have done it before losing, 27-24. Fast forward nine weeks later. The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC. The Chargers are mediocre, heavily weakened by key injuries especially on offense where their best offensive lineman and two top wide receivers have been out. This, along with a rib injury, has greatly reduced the effectiveness of Justin Herbert. He has just eight TD passes with five interceptions in his last seven games. Herbert doesn't have the weapons to keep up with sizzling Patrick Mahomes, who has emerged as the MVP frontrunner with 17 TD passes in his last six games. Kansas City is averaging an NFC-best 30 points per game. The Chargers' five victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons. Those teams are a combined 13-32-1. The Chargers have little home field in the crowded LA sports market. They are 0-3 ATS during their past three home games with two of those defeats occurring to the Jaguars, 38-10, and 37-23 to the Seahawks. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Steelers | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
The Bengals and Joe Burrow were extremely rusty opening week when they met the Steelers. The Bengals lost the turnover battle, 5-0. Yet it took the end of overtime for the Steelers to pull off a 3-point victory and only because Evan McPherson missed an extra point near the end of regulation and a chip shot field goal in overtime because the Bengals had lost their long snapper to an injury during the game. Now the Bengals enter the rematch rested off their bye and in revenge mode. Burrow has gotten better pass protection since that Week 1 matchup. The result is Cincinnati is 5-2 in its last seven games. Ja'Marr Chase remains out. Burrow still, though, has enough weapons and the Bengals get back stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader, who has been out since Week 3 with a knee injury. He's the Bengals' top run defender. That's huge because rookie Kenny Pickett needs a ground game to set up his passing. Pickett is an overmatched rookie, who has a 2-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked way too many times. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Rams +3 v. Saints | 20-27 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
Here are three major reasons why I like the Rams here: 1. Coaching mismatch. Sean McVay versus Dennis Allen, who isn't qualified to be a head coach. 2. Quarterback mismatch. Matthew Stafford is miles ahead of Andy Dalton even without Cooper Kupp. 3. Aaron Donald getting to play Godzilla against a battered Saints offensive line likely to be without three starters. The Saints are 1-4 in their last five games. Their defense is down their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, their top pass rusher, Cameron Jordan, and their most active linebacker, Pete Werner. The Rams have a battered offensive line, too. But McVay is sharp enough to effectively game plan having Stafford to take advantage of the Saints' key injuries. The Saints continue to trot out Dalton, who always has been mistake-prone but is even worse now that he's on the downside of his career. New Orleans has the worst turnover differential in the NFL at minus 12. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | UNLV v. Hawaii +11.5 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
UNLV isn't playing as well as it did in September and doesn't deserve to be this high of a road favorite against Hawaii. The Rebels have lost four games in a row. They are 1-4 on the road this season. Going to Hawaii is a unique trip because it involves a long flight and a two-hour time zone difference, not to mention a completely different atmosphere. Hawaii has covered five of its last six games. Only once during their last seven games have the Rainbow Warriors been beaten by more than seven points. They are stepping down in class, too, having faced Utah State, Fresno State and Wyoming in their past three games. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | UAB +15 v. LSU | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham has the right ingredients to spring a major upset here. The Blazers have a good defense, a strong ground attack led by talented DeWayne McBride and catch LSU in a letdown and look-ahead spot. UAB gives up 21.3 points and ranks 29th in total defense with the 15th-best pass defense. Western Kentucky, which ranks fourth in passing yards, could manage just 128 yards through the air at home against the Blazers. Only five teams average more running yards per game than UAB. McBride averages nearly seven yards a carry. The Blazers can control the clock by successfully running the ball. LSU has already clinched its ticket to the SEC championship game against Georgia. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
Mississippi's hopes of winning the SEC West Division ended last week with a narrow loss to Alabama. Following this game, the Rebels meet in-state conference rival Mississippi State in their annual Egg Bowl game. So it's a difficult situational spot for the Rebels going on the road to face Arkansas. The 5-5 Razorbacks have all kinds of incentive. Not only do they have revenge for a wild 52-51 loss last year to Mississippi State, but they need a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Ole Miss has failed to cover during its last four visits to Arkansas. Arkansas held LSU to 284 total yards in a 13-10 home loss last week. Now the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson, who didn't play against LSU. Jefferson is back for this game giving the Razorbacks a dynamic dual threat quarterback weapon. Jefferson has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,981 yards with a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 425 yards with six TD's on the ground. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Connecticut v. Army -10 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show | |
Great job this season by Jim Mora getting Connecticut up to six wins, which makes the Huskies bowl eligible for the first time in seven years. The Huskies reached this point by upsetting previously 19th-ranked Liberty, 36-33, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs this past Saturday. Connecticut isn't nearly talented enough to cover spreads if it's not playing at a high level. The Huskies could have trouble doing that in an obvious letdown spot. But it's not just the letdown factor. The Huskies are going to have plenty of problems with Army's triple-option attack. The Black Knights are No. 2 in the country in rushing averaging nearly 300 yards on the ground per game. Connecticut is 73rd in run defense, but even its below average run defense statistics are skewed because of playing passing teams early in the season. The Huskies don't have the offense to cover for a bad defense. They have failed to break the 21-point barrier in seven of their 11 games. They rank 125th in total yards and 112th in scoring. Army blasted the Huskies, 52-21, last season. Sure the Huskies are much improved, but given the spot I don't see them staying within single digits. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Florida State -23.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Florida State is peaking at the right time. The Seminoles have won their last three games - against Syracuse, Miami and Georgia Tech - by an average score of 41-7. Don't expect Louisiana Lafayette to fare any better. This isn't the Ragin' Cajuns of past years unders Billy Napier, who is at Florida now. Lafayette is coming off a home win against Georgia Southern and finishes back in the Sun Belt Conference against Texas State. If the Ragin Cajuns beat 3-7 Texas State they would become bowl eligible. So this non-conference game doesn't mean much. Lafayette has suffered three road defeats. The last time they were on the road, the Ragin' Cajuns permitted 39 points to Southern Mississippi in a 15-point loss. That was the most points Southern Mississippi has scored all season against a Division I opponent. That does bode well for Lafayette against the Seminoles' high-caliber offense. |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Knicks v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
Kudos to the Knicks in opening their five-game road trip with straight-up underdog victories against the Jazz on Tuesday and Nuggets on Wednesday. But I don't see them making it three in a row against the Warriors. Golden State has won five in a row at home. The Knicks are playing their third road game in four days and are in action for the fifth time in eight days. They caught a break in drawing the Nuggets when Denver was missing Nikola Jokic. Still, it was a highly satisfying win for the Knicks, their first in Denver since 2006. The Warriors aren't as fat and happy as the Knicks. Golden State is off a highly disappointing, 130-119, road loss to the Suns this past Wednesday. Warriors coach Steve Kerr fell on his sword taking the blame for the defeat. I see the Warriors playing with great intensity back at home in support of Kerr. Golden State is hitting 40 percent of its 3-point shots at home. That would rank No. 2 in the league if it were the Warriors' season average. The Knicks are down defensively from past seasons. They rank in the middle in 3-point defense. |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Nevada -4.5 v. Texas-Arlington | 62-43 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
I find this line short as Nevada should beat Texas Arlington by double-digits. The Wolf Pack rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Texas Arlington lost its three best scorers from last year's squad, which lost 18 of 29 games. The Mavericks' scoring numbers are skewed because they played two non-Division I cupcakes. By most ratings, the Mavericks are worse than any team in the Mountain West Conference. So Nevada should have no problem here. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Utah State v. San Diego +7 | 91-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
This is too generous of a point spread so I'm getting involved with the home underdog. Both teams are 3-0. This is Utah State's first road game of the season and biggest test. Steve Lavin has raised the talent level at San Diego bringing in several transfers from the Pac-12. One of the Toreros' victories this season is against Florida Gulf Coast, a team that upset USC by 13 points on the road. San Diego ranks 31st in the country in 3-point shooting. The Toreros also are 12th in turnover percentage. That's an impressive combination of limiting turnovers while being highly accurate from beyond the arc. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 17 m | Show |
The Titans have been winning ugly all season. It catches up to them here traveling on a short week with multiple defensive injuries facing a rejuvenated Packers team that saved their season by coming from two touchdowns behind in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys this past Sunday. This is a huge game for Green Bay. The Packers can't take a loss here with their next game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Titans can be excused if they don't match the Packers' intensity. The Titans have a two-game lead in the very weak AFC South Division. The timing of this road Thursday game is very bad for Tennessee. The Titans are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now especially on defense. They were outplayed but managed to beat the bumbling Broncos this past Sunday despite missing five defensive starters, including star tackle Jeffery Simmons and big-play linebacker Bud Dupree. The Titans then suffered three more defensive injuries against Denver. The Packers blew out the Titans, 40-14, at home two seasons ago when the teams last met. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Merrimack +6 v. Troy State | 54-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Troy may have a difficult time getting up for this game after upsetting Florida State on the road this past Monday as a double-digit 'dog. That victory has caused this line to be inflated. Merrimack is at Troy's level. Merrimack has a good player in Jordan Minor. Troy was picked to finish 10th in the Sun Belt Conference. This game is being played at a neutral site. Troy is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pelicans | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Bulls have rapid revenge for a 115-111 home loss to the Pelicans last Wednesday. The scheduling dynamics also favor Chicago. Chicago last played three days ago. So the Bulls should be rested and ready. That's not the case with the Pelicans, who are in action for the eighth time in 13 days and have zero rest after beating the Grizzlies last night. Both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum logged big minutes in that game. It's a bonus for the Bulls if Zion Williamson has to miss the game. He's questionable with a foot injury. The Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS during their last 11 road games. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Texas Southern +31.5 v. Houston | Top | 48-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated. Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Grizzlies +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
This is just the third time all season the Grizzlies are underdogs when they are expected to have Ja Morant. He missed Memphis' last game, a 102-92 road loss to the Wizards this past Saturday. Memphis is 0-3 when Morant has been out. But with him, the Grizzlies are 9-2. The Grizzlies also are 15-7 ATS the past 22 times following a loss. The matchup has sort of a Zig/Zag feel to it as the Pelicans are off a 119-106 home win against the Rockets from Saturday. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS following a victory. The Grizzlies have defeated the Pelicans three of the last four times when Morant has started. |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Bucknell v. St. Peter's -3.5 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
I have St. Peter's power-rated higher than this spread number. The Peacocks have been an excellent ATS team going 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games for 78 percent. They have covered in their last six home games. Bucknell is 2-0 but has played easy competition. Bucknell is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation. The Bison have failed to cover nine of the last 12 times on the road when facing a foe with a winning home record. |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Morehead State +19 v. West Virginia | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
West Virginia is off a very satisfying, 81-56, victory against Pittsburgh in its Backyard Brawl matchup. I don't see the Mountaineers being as intense as Morehead State for this matchup. The Eagles have been pointing to this rematch after West Virginia eliminated them, 84-67, in a first round NCAA Tournament game last year.
|
|||||||
11-14-22 | CS Sacramento +3 v. Denver | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Denver has had two easy games so far this season beating Idaho and Colorado College. The Pioneers struggled against Idaho failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. They face stronger competition here against Sacramento State. The Hornets are defensive-minded under new coach David Patrick. Their half-court ways and height should bother Denver, which has faced two easy defenses. Sacramento State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games going back to last season. Denver has failed to cover in its last five lined home games. |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Suns +2 v. Heat | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Miami has yet to get going at 6-7. The Heat are at least two levels down from the Suns. The key question is are the Heat good enough at home drawing the Suns likely without Chris Paul for a third straight game? I rather doubt it. Considering the situation - the Suns off an embarrassing loss to the Magic this past Friday - I will get involved backing underdog Phoenix. The Suns had a cold shooting night against Orlando while the Magic were hot making 52.4 percent of their shots from the floor. Phoenix is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times following a loss. They are 4-0 SU this season after losing in their previous game. Phoenix also has covered in its last four visits to Miami. Cameron Payne is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league. The Heat have their own key injury. Tyler Herro, Miami's second-leading scorer, has missed the last three games due to a sprained ankle. Miami just got down hosting the lowly Hornets during its past two games. The last time the Heat faced a team of this high caliber was in their second game of the season when they hosted and lost to the Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the past six times they've met an above .500 opponent. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers -7 | 16-22 | Loss | -125 | 31 h 45 m | Show | |
The 49ers are at full strength on offense for the first time this season. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have to be Joe Montana with Kyle Shanahan calling plays and backed by elite weapons Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points a game. Fresh off their bye, the 49ers also are healthier on defense, too. This doesn't bode well for the Chargers, who remain extremely banged-up offensively. Justin Herbert has become just a glorified game manager minus his star left tackle and without his two best wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Herbert has not completed a pass longer than 20 yards during his last three games. He's also gone four consecutive games without reaching the 300-yard passing mark. The Chargers haven't defeated a good team yet. Their victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons with three of those wins |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Lindenwood +28.5 v. Missouri | 53-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Missouri didn't cover against Penn in its last game this past Friday, winning 92-85 as a 12 1/2-point home favorite. I had Penn in that game with part of my handicap being the Tigers are breaking in a new roster and coach so it's going to take time for them to jell. I'm going to double down and fade the Tigers again believing this point spread is too high. Missouri is 2-0, but giving up 88 points a game. Both of its previous opponents - Penn and Southern Indiana - shot 50 percent from 3-point range. Lindenwood made 12 of 26 3-point shots in its last game. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Colts v. Raiders -4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
The Raiders have been on the road in their last two games and those two losses - getting shut out by the Saints and blowing a 17-0 lead to the Jaguars - have put enormous heat on Josh McDaniels and the entire Las Vegas franchise. But remember the last time the Raiders were home, they rolled past the Texans, 38-30. Houston is the worst team in the AFC. The Colts are at Houston Texans' level now. So against the worst at home, the Raiders should be trusted. The Raiders actually were a playoff team last season. They've blown three 17-point advantages. If they would have held on in those games their record would be 5-3 and we would be talking about a much higher point spread here. Nearly all of this handicap, however, is a fade on the Colts. You have to wonder if Colts owner Jim Irsay has gone on tilt, or made the decision to tank. Jeff Saturday, who has never been a coach on any level, inherits an offense that ranks last in scoring at 14.7, 30th in yards per play and 30th in rushing. The Colts have committed a league-high 17 turnovers. Bill Walsh would have trouble coaxing points out of this Colts offense, which has a stiff at quarterback in Sam Ehlinger, behind an offensive line that has deeply regressed. Jonathan Taylor is hobbled by an ankle injury. The play-calling falls upon Parks Frazier, who like Saturday, is totally inexperienced in this capacity. The Raiders aren't good defensively. They don't have to be against this foe. Davante Adams had a big first half last week. McDaniels knows enough offense to realize the Raiders just need to keep feeding Adams and run Josh Jacobs to take care of the Colts, who are without their best big-play defender, injured Shaquile Leonard. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Vikings v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
The Bills don't need Josh Allen to beat the Vikings, who are a bogus 7-1. Only one of Minnesota's wins has been against a winning team with six of its victories occurring in one-score games. The Vikings have a losing ATS mark. The one time the Vikings had a step-up game, they lost 24-7 to the Eagles. Already the Vikings have built up an insurmountable five-game lead in the loss column in their NFC North Division. I doubt the Vikings get as motivated for this game as the Bills will at home off a terrible loss to the Jets. I want Buffalo in this spot and I'm fine with Case Keenum, who is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and is surrounded by weapons in the Bills' high octane offensive attack. Keenum is experienced and proficient in Buffalo's spread type offense. I don't see the Bills, with their aggressive nature, dialing things back. Not only is the spot bad for the Vikings catching the Bills off a division loss, but the setting isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings are a dome team traveling into Buffalo in mid-November with the forecast calling for possible snow showers and wind in the 10-20 mph range. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Broncos +3 v. Titans | 10-17 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm taking the Broncos even anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back for the Titans. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a third straight game. Willis is averaging 67.5 yards passing on 11 completions in his two games mainly throwing dump-off passes. He can't connect with anyone downfield. The Titans haven't been very good passing with Tannehill either. Tennessee hasn't reached 260 yards of total offense in five of its eight games. The Titans are totally dependent on Derrick Henry. This isn't lost on the Broncos, who even without traded Bradley Chubb have a well above average defense giving up 16.5 points a game, which is No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense. The Broncos have finally shown a little life offensively. Denver was on a bye last week giving Russell Wilson additional time to heal and get more in sync with his new team. While the Broncos were resting, the Titans took the Chiefs to overtime last Sunday night. Tennessee's defense was on the field for 91 plays in that loss. The Titans are going to be missing their best defensive front-seven player, Jeffery Simmons, along with linebackers Bud Dupree and Zach Cunningham. Tennessee already is sailing toward the AFC South Division title. The Titans have no competition in their weak division. This game means far more to the Broncos. So Denver should have its intensity while the Titans have a fatigue factor working against them. |