03-11-15 |
USC v. Arizona State -6 |
|
67-64 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
I don't see USC, losers of 13 of its past 15, keeping this close.
The Sun Devils have really come on. They've won five of their last seven and have shown tremendous improvement during the past four weeks. I haven't seen that from the Trojans.
Arizona State has the versatility and backcourt strength to match up well against the Trojans. I see USC struggling to keep a hot Shaquille McKissic in check.
The Sun Devils are 5-2 in their last seven games despite shooting just 26.7 percent from 3-point range. I expect the Sun Devils to shoot better than that against the Trojans, who rank 274th in defense giving up 70.4 points per game.
|
03-10-15 |
Detroit Pistons -2.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
|
85-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 32 m |
Show
|
If the Pistons want to retain any flicker of playoff hope, they must win this game. A six-game losing streak make them a long shot to make the playoffs after they pulled within one game of reaching the eighth spot on Feb. 22. Maybe flying to the West Coast and not practicing yesterday will help Detroit because the Pistons are a tired team. And tired teams usually don't shoot well. That's been the problem for the Pistons, particularly in their backcourt where Reggie Jackson and Kenavious Caldwell-Pope have been ice cold. I see the Lakers as being the remedy to Detroit's cold-shooting woes. The Lakers have been torched by other team's guards this month, including giving up 31 points to Monta Ellis at home two nights ago. Ellis entered that matchup shooting less than 28 percent from the floor during his last four games. The Lakers are an NBA-worst 4-21 since Jan. 11. They've dropped five in a row and are likely to still be missing Nick Young. The Pistons have covered 11 of their last 16 road contests. Following this matchup, the Pistons play road games against the Warriors, Trail Blazers and hot Jazz. That makes this game their easiest one - and a huge must-win. A loss to such a bad team as the Lakers would be devastating, something Stan Van Gundy is well aware of.
|
03-10-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers -4 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
127-94 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
I want LeBron James and Cleveland in this revenge spot against a bogus Western Conference playoff team that is in a bad spot. Dallas shot a blistering 56.4 percent when it beat Cleveland, 109-90, on the road Jan. 4. James didn't play in that game and Kyrie Irving had to depart in the third quarter with an injury. Cleveland is healthy now and refreshed having last played on Saturday after playing four games in five days. Dallas got past the Lakers on Sunday night. This is the Mavericks' first game back from three games on the West Coast. The Mavericks are just 16-14 in their last 30 games and have consistently failed to step up against stronger competition. They are 7-17 ATS versus foes with a winning record. Dallas doesn't play that well at home either, covering 45 percent of their games at American Airlines Center. Dallas gives up the second-worst percentage of 3-point baskets at home in the league behind only the Knicks. The Cavaliers have stepped up their perimeter attack averaging 31.3 shots from beyond the arc since Jan. 15. The Cavaliers have three superstars in their prime plus a strong bench and rotation. They are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times going against Western Conference opponents. Dallas isn't nearly at that level. Dirk Nowitzki is past him prime and Rajon Rondo has been a disappointment since coming from Boston.
|
03-10-15 |
Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -2.5 |
Top |
44-54 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
Valparaiso is the class of the Horizon League. The Crusaders match up well against Green Bay and get to play at home in this Horizon League Tournament game. The Crusaders set a single season school record for wins with 27 this season. Valparaiso has better offensive and defensive numbers than the Phoenix and are 14-1 at Athletics-Recreation Center, including winning all eight of its conference games there. Green Bay, by contrast, is 0-5 during the past four season playing at Athletics-Recreation Center, including losing 63-59 there on Feb. 13. The Phoenix are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Valpo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games versus foes with a winning road mark. Green Bay needs to score inside to be effective. The Phoenix are going to have problems getting points in the paint, though. The Crusaders have size and athleticism. One of those athletes is 6-foot-10 center Vashil Fernandez, who averages nearly three blocks a game.
|
03-09-15 |
Portland +8.5 v. BYU |
|
70-84 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
Portland put aside concerns about finishing with four consecutive losses by upsetting Saint Mary's 69-52 this past Saturday in a quarterfinal game of the West Coast Conference Tournament. BYU, on the other hand, struggled barely getting past Santa Clara, 78-76, in its quarterfinal game on Saturday. It's obvious the Cougars are looking ahead to a likely title match against Gonzaga. Portland should play with a lot of effort and intensity. The Pilots have nothing to lose and are playing for only the second time in nine days. They catch a huge break in the WCC changing its tournament format. There were no games on Sunday. The tournament, which is being played in Las Vegas, resumes today so it can be televised nationally. The Cougars are 16-35 (31 percent) ATS the past 51 times they've played on a neutral court. They aren't 100 percent healthy either. senior guard Anson Winder reinjured his upper leg and Corbin Kaufusi rolled an ankle against Santa Clara. BYU did beat Portland both times during the regular season, winning by nine in Provo and 82-69 on the road. Portland trailed by just two, though, with 3:21 left in that loss.
|
03-09-15 |
Pepperdine +14.5 v. Gonzaga |
|
61-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
Pepperdine has the defense, determination and right situation to throw a scare into Gonzaga. The Waves are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine times they've played opponents with a winning record. They've played the two top teams in the West Coast Conference - Gonzaga and BYU - very strong in four games going 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS. The Waves swept BYU and lost to the Bulldogs 78-76 at home and 56-48 in Spokane. This is just Pepperdine's second game in nine days. The Waves catch a break in they won't have fatigue issues because the WCC switched their format giving the teams Sunday off in order to set up a nationally televised doubleheader for Monday. The tournament is being held in Las Vegas, a neutral site. Gonzaga is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site matchups. The Bulldogs aren't looking to cover a huge margin - just win and move on. They need to conserve energy unlike Pepperdine, which can go all out with nothing to lose being such a heavy underdog. Pepperdine showed its determination coming from eight points down in the second half to beat San Diego, 50-47, in the quarterfinals on Saturday. The Waves are holding foes to 61 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting from the field. So Gonzaga doesn't figure to get many easy baskets especially if 6-foot-10 forward Kyle Wiltjer can't play or is limited. Wiltjer, the Bulldogs' leading scorer, suffered a hip injury late in the Bulldogs' quarterfinal win against San Francisco this past Saturday.
|
03-09-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans +2 v. Milwaukee Bucks |
Top |
114-103 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 29 m |
Show
|
The record shows New Orleans and Milwaukee each having 29 losses. But know this: New Orleans is better than Milwaukee. And the Bucks playing at home doesn't change that. The Pelicans are 7-2 in their last nine games. Every game is a must win spot for them as they battle to grab the final playoff position in the much superior Western Conference. New Orleans is coming off a win against Memphis this past Friday. That was Anthony Davis' third game back from a shoulder injury. He's averaging 30.3 points and 12.3 rebounds since returning. He's a legitimate MVP candidate. Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans are playing at high levels, too. Trading for point guard Norris Cole to help fill the void of injured point guard Jrue Holiday was a shrewd move by the Pelicans. Cole is a nice complementary player and knows how to win having collected a couple of rings when he was with the Heat. The Pelicans have covered seven of the last eight times on the road when going against a foe with a winning home record. The Bucks were maybe the biggest surprise team of the first half. But opposing teams have caught up to them and the Bucks have gotten worse after trading point guard Brandon Knight and getting turnover-prone, poor shooting Michael Carter-Williams in return. Since that deal, the Bucks have gone 3-6. Their only victories during this span were against the Nuggets, 76ers and Wizards. This was before Denver made its much needed coaching change and had lost 13 of its past 15. The 76ers are tied for the second-fewest wins in the league. The Wizards are 4-13 in their last 17 games and were without Bradley Beal. The Bucks needed a career-game from Kris Middleton to get past Washington. Before swapping point guards, the Bucks had won eight of nine. The young and inexperienced Bucks haven't fully adjusted to Carter-Williams and have lost some of their chemistry and confidence. The Bucks have turned into an undisciplined, out-of-control team playing not to lose instead of being loose. The Bucks now step up in class to face a legitimate Western Conference playoff contender that is playing well. Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games versus Western Conference opponents. The Pelicans have a good track record versus Milwaukee winning 14 of the last 16 in the series, including going 6-2 the past eight times in Milwaukee.
|
03-07-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 |
Top |
113-121 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 5 m |
Show
|
The timing is right for the Timberwolves to upset the Trail Blazers. Minnesota has lost four in a row, including all three during its current homestand. This is the Timberwolves' final game at Target Center before heading out for four consecutive road games - all likely losses since they face the Clippers, Suns, Thunder and Spurs. The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Nuggets in their last game. Flip Saunders said it was his team's most disappointing loss in two months. Following an off day and then a day of practice should ensure a fresh and motivated Timberwolves squad for this matchup. Nikola Pekovic and Gary Neal are expected to play. This will be Portland's first game since finding out that Wesley Matthews is out for the season after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon on Thursday against the Mavericks. Matthews isn't just Portland's third-leading scorer and top 3-point shooter. He brings a strong all-around game and is a steady force having played in 153 straight games. Matthews is an underrated player and his loss is going to be felt. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are the stars, but Matthews has been the unsung glue for Portland. The Trail Blazers' weak bench is made worse by the Matthews' injury since it elevates Arron Afflalo into the starting lineup. Afflalo is having a down year so far. That may change since he's now with the Trail Blazers and not the Nuggets. But he's still going through an adjustment period. The Timberwolves usually play better defense at home. They also have capable scorers. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging 20.9 points in his last seven games. Minnesota has covered five of the past six times at home. Portland is in a weird spot and not just because of the shell shock over losing Matthews. The Trail Blazers just hosted the Mavericks on Thursday and blew them out. After this game they fly back to Portland for consecutive home games. So this is an odd situational element and also marks Portland's third game in four days. That's rough on any team especially one with weak reserves.
|
03-07-15 |
Clemson +11 v. Notre Dame |
|
67-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
The Irish are off a huge upset win against Louisville. Clemson has more to play for than Notre Dame, which has clinched third place in the ACC. Clemson is looking to go .500 and gain better seeding for the ACC Tournament. Clemson is not a strong offensive team, but has some capable scorers. Notre Dame lacks shut down defenders. The Tigers are tough defensively holding foes to four points less per game than the Irish. Clemson nearly beat Notre Dame in its earlier meeting on Feb. 10 losing 60-58. I just don't see Notre Dame covering a double-digit spread against a respectable conference foe without playing its "A" game.
|
03-07-15 |
Connecticut v. Temple -3 |
Top |
63-75 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
The defending champion Huskies don't have it this season. That was made evident after they suffered a grueling 54-53 home loss to Memphis just two days ago. Memphis won despite not having its leading scorer, Austin Nichols. That game didn't finish until late Thursday night. Connecticut starters logged 165 floor minutes. Now the demoralized Huskies have this quick turnaround to Philadelphia knowing their only realistic hope of defending their NCAA title is to win the American Athletic Conference tournament. An early start time here certainly doesn't help fatigued Connecticut either. The Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. They have lost and failed to cover in five of their last seven conference road matchups falling 30 points below market expectations in these games. The Huskies actually would best be served by not wasting energy because a victory isn't going to improve their NCAA chances. They're going to need to win the AAC Tournament so they should scale back the minutes of their starters in preparation for achieving that long-shot goal. So I'm certainly not expecting to see the Huskies' "A" game here. Temple needs this game more than Connecticut in terms of trying to land an NCAA Tournament berth. The Owls are 21-9. They have covered eight of their last 11 AAC games. They defeated Connecticut, 57-53, on New Year's Eve on the road in overtime. The setting is much better here for the Owls. The atmosphere should be highly favorable for Temple. This is the last home game for Will Cummings and Jesse Morgan. The Owls also played two days ago, but their starters logged 35 fewer minutes than Connecticut's starters did on Thursday. Temple not only is the better team but is in better shape for this matchup mentally and physically.
.
|
03-06-15 |
Yale +5 v. Harvard |
|
62-52 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
Yale has proven worthy on the road going 10-2 versus Ivy League opponents. The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. Going back ever farther, Yale is 18-6-2 ATS in its past 26 away matchups. The road team has covered in the last five in this series. Yale shot just 31.3 percent from the field and shot fewer free throws than Harvard during the first meeting this season yet still lost by only two points.
|
03-06-15 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Oakland -7.5 |
|
72-69 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
Power ratings-wise, I have Oakland as a double-digit winner here.
Oakland is 2-0 versus UIC this season winning 81-56 at home on Feb. 22 and also winning 91-77 on the road.
The Golden Grizzlies are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games and have covered 10 of their past 13 Horizon League games.
|
03-06-15 |
Utah v. Washington State +13 |
Top |
67-59 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 14 m |
Show
|
Utah is nothing special on the road. The Utes are just 6-5 away from home. Washington State has been keeping its last few games close as five points or less has been the winning margin during its past three games.
The Cougars are capable at home owning victories against Stanford and Oregon. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times when hosting an opponent that has a winning road record.
|
03-05-15 |
VCU v. Davidson -3 |
|
55-82 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is Davidson's second look at VCU and a a huge game for the Wildcats' program being Senior Night and on ESPN. The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Look for the Wildcats to handle the Rams' presses and take them out of their half-court offense. VCU has lost its last two games falling at Richmond and to Dayton. The Rams shot just 33 percent from the floor combined in those two games.
They clearly miss Briante Weber. Davidson is No. 2 in the country in adjusted turnover ratio. The Wildcats are going to have three players with more than 100 assists on the season. They have excellent ballhandlers that can withstand VCU's presses especially after seeing it before.
|
03-04-15 |
Oregon -2 v. Oregon State |
|
65-62 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
Oregon enters this huge rivalry on an 8-1 run, including four consecutive victories. The Ducks have a spot in the NCAA Tournament firmly in mind. Oregon State overachieved for the first half of the season, but its lack of talent, offense and bench has caught up. The Beavers have lost five of their past six. They were swept by Stanford and California on the road last week outscored by a combined 45 points in the second half. Oregon has won the last three in this Civil War series, including a 12-point home win this past Jan. 3. Even respecting Oregon State's 15-1 home mark, I can't see the gassed Beavers keeping up with the Ducks. The Beavers have the lowest-ranked offense in the Pac-12 and fare poorly against the more up-tempo conference teams. The Beavers have an excellent backcourt, but they have fewer than seven players on their roster with real Division I talent. Their lack of depth has brought down their defensive intensity, which is their key to victory. They just don't have it anymore. Look for Oregon to successfully spread the court on the Beavers while owning the stronger bench and better athletes.
|
03-04-15 |
Colorado State -7.5 v. Nevada |
Top |
78-62 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 30 m |
Show
|
Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila. Of course I'm not expecting Colorado State to win this rematch by 56 points even with Avila back. But the Rams should prevail easily by double-digits. Colorado State is a bubble team that can't afford a slip up here. The Rams create big match up problems for the Wolf Pack with their four-guard offense and up-tempo style. The Rams average nearly 73 points per game. Nevada doesn't have the offense to stay with them. The Wolf Pack lost by 32 points to Boise State, by 16 to Utah State at home and by 13 on the road to the Aggies. Those two teams are similar to Colorado State.
|
03-04-15 |
Phoenix Suns v. Orlando Magic +4 |
Top |
105-100 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
The Suns are worse than their overall won-lost record. Their players realize they aren't going to make the playoffs after some early season promise so morale and chemistry are down. Phoenix has dropped 10 of its last 13. The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Magic have become rejuvenated defensively under interim coach James Borrego. Since Borrego replaced inept Jacque Vaughn nine games ago, the Magic have given up an average of 92 points per game. Not one opponent has reached triple digits against them during this past nine-game span. Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in is last 11 games and can take advantage of the Suns' 28th-ranked defense and minus 2.2 rebound differential.
|
03-03-15 |
Utah Jazz +7.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies |
Top |
93-82 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a lot of points to be taking with a hot Jazz squad especially with such a low over/under total. Utah is playing its best defense of the season holding its past five foes to an average of 82.8 points per game. The Jazz are 6-2 in their last eight games - and their wins have come against solid opponents. During this span, Utah has defeated the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Spurs and Bucks. The Jazz have the height and physical front line to match up to the Grizzlies with Derrick Favors and underrated Rudy Gobert. Memphis isn't playing well right now. In their last three games, the Grizzlies lost by 12 points to the Kings, lost by 18 to the Clippers who were missing Blake Griffin, and nipped the Timberwolves by four. The Grizzlies also have a bigger game on deck Wednesday when they play on the road against the Rockets.
|
03-03-15 |
Boston Celtics +12 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
|
79-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 5 m |
Show
|
Even if Kyrie Irving plays as expected after missing the last two games with a shoulder strain, I'm backing Boston at this point spread range. The Celtics are well-coached, have good chemistry and are playing hard the entire game. They won't lack for motivation either just one game out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Boston has covered 11 of its last 15 road games and is 8-0 ATS the past eight times meeting foes with a winning record. The Cavaliers are off a frustrating overtime road loss to the Rockets this past Sunday. So LeBron James and Co. might be fired-up here, but they also have a tougher foe on deck Wednesday when they play at Toronto.
|
03-02-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 |
Top |
110-105 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
Forget their season record. The Timberwolves are much better now with a healthy roster, except for Nikola Pekovic who is questionable, and the addition of Kevin Garnett. Garnett is near the end of a great career, but the team's all-time leader in points and rebounds can still inspire and provides much needed leadership and a winner's mentality. Garnett's return to Minnesota also has rejuvenated the fan base. Garnett purchased 1,000 tickets for this game to be given out to fans. The Timberwolves have the talent to upset the Blake Griffin-less Clippers and they catch LA in a vulnerable scheduling spot. The Clippers are off impressive road victories against the Grizzlies on Friday and Bulls on Sunday. After this game, the Clippers fly back to LA to host Portland on Wednesday in a much more challenging contest for them. Despite these recent victories, the Clippers still are 6-13 ATS during their past 19 road contests. They also haven't done well when playing on Monday failing to cover seven of the past eight times on that day. Minnesota has covered its past four home games and in six of its last seven versus Western Conference foes.
|
03-02-15 |
Toronto Raptors -8.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
|
114-103 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a stop the pain game for the Raptors, who have beaten the 76ers seven times in a row.
The Raptors are off their most embarrassing loss of the season falling to the Knicks and won't have a better opportunity to end their losing streak even without Kyle Lowery. The 76ers could be without their current leading scorer, Robert Covington. The 76ers rank at the bottom of most of the major statistical categories, including scoring, and are playing without rest. The Raptors have the depth to take full advantage of that.
|
03-01-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Boston Celtics +9.5 |
|
106-101 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
Under Brad Stevens, you can usually count on the Celtics to play scrappy and hard. The Celtics have been playing well covering eight of their last 10, including winning and covering their last three games. Boston catches Golden State playing its fourth road game in six days and with a game at Brooklyn on deck Monday. The Warriors are just 3-6 ATS during their past nine games. The Celtics have been getting solid contributions from their latest newcomers Isaiah Thomas, who knows the Warriors well having played in the same division against them with Phoenix and Sacramento, and Jonas Jerebko. Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley are hard-nosed defenders who will make Stephen Curry work to earn his points. The Celtics played Golden State tough on the road losing 114-111 in the first meeting on Jan. 25.
|
03-01-15 |
Oregon State v. California -3 |
Top |
56-73 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting. The Beavers are 1-4 in their last five games. Never a strong offensive team, the Beavers averaged 49.7 points in those four losses. Oregon State can't play on the road either losing and failing to cover in eight of its 10 away matchups, including the last five. Oregon State's latest road defeat came this past Thursday to Stanford, 75-48. The Cardinal scored 47 second-half points. Cal is celebrating senior day and has beaten Oregon State four consecutive times at home. The Golden Bears are unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament, but hold matchup edges to go with their home-court advantage against Oregon State. Aside from Gary Payton II, the Beavers can't match Cal's talent level. Tyrone Wallace is one of the top guards in the nation. He and Jordan Mathews are one of the better guard tandems in the West. The Golden Bears also can exploit a size advantage. Their up-tempo backcourt can take advantage of Oregon State's depth issues that are made worse by getting worn down this late in the season.
|
02-28-15 |
Atlanta Hawks -5 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
93-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
Both teams played last night, which favors the deeper Hawks.
Miami isn't close to Atlanta's level. It has been more than a month since the Heat even beat an above .500 team. Their last five victories have been against the 76ers, Knicks twice, Magic and Celtics before the Isaiah Thomas trade.
The teams met twice this season and the Hawks won both times by double-digits. Miami has fared much better on the road than at home where it is 10-16 SU, 8-16-2 ATS. The Hawks, by contrast, have covered 20 of their last 26 road contests.
The Heat are minus Chris Bosh and have ball-handling problems that the Hawks can exploit.
|
02-28-15 |
NC State v. Boston College +5 |
|
63-79 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
I can easily see North Carolina State overlooking Boston College in this ACC sandwich spot. The Wolfpack are off a huge victory against arch-rival North Carolina and have a revenge game on tap against Clemson. That victory at North Carolina just may have put the Wolfpack into the NCAA Tournament and cause a letdown for this matchup against the lowly Eagles. North Carolina State traditionally struggles at Boston College failing to cover in their last five visits. Boston College guard Olivier Hanlan has been red-hot. Hanlan leads the ACC in scoring and is averaging 28 points in his last seven games.
|
02-27-15 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -6 |
|
89-96 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
Now that the reality of Derrick Rose undergoing his third knee surgery since 2011 and being out for the season has sunk in, look for the Bulls to regroup for this home matchup. The Bulls were slapped by the Hornets, 98-86, at United Center two nights ago in their first game since learning of Rose's injury. This is what Bulls center Joakim Noah was quoted as saying after the loss to the Hornets: "We've got to play a lot harder.Mentally, I think we were a little bit drained with everything that happened. I just know we have to play a lot harder if we're going to be successful." The Bulls have covered each of the last six times following a loss. Rose actually wasn't having a strong year - his shooting percentage and minutes played per game were way down from his career marks - and Chicago has good backcourt depth. Minnesota isn't 100 percent either as rotation players Anthony Bennett and Shabazz Muhammad are out. The Timberwolves are off an emotional 97-77 home win against the Wizards. That game marked the return of Kevin Garnett, the team's all-time leader in many of their statistics categories. There is a chance the Timberwolves rest the 38-year-old Garnett since the Timberwolves have a home game on Saturday. Minnesota is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a victory. The Bulls have won six of the past seven times when hosting the Timberwolves. I see the Bulls' intensity being up here while the road Timberwolves have a letdown following Garnett's emotional home return.
|
02-27-15 |
Orlando Magic +11 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
88-95 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
Discount Orlando's season statistics. Instead concentrate on how improved the Magic are particularly defensively since James Borrego replaced overmatch Jacque Vaughn as head coach.
Since Borrego took over, the Magic are giving up just 91.7 points per game. This isn't a kill spot for the Hawks, who have to play on the road against the Heat Saturday night.
The Magic have been gold on the road covering 64 percent of the time.
|
02-26-15 |
Oregon State v. Stanford -8 |
Top |
48-75 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 44 m |
Show
|
The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points! The Beavers' weak bench figures to get exposed by Stanford, a veteran squad that also can take advantage of the Beavers being without suspended 6-foot-7 forward Victor Robbins. Oregon State has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.
|
02-26-15 |
Oklahoma City Thunder -5 v. Phoenix Suns |
Top |
113-117 |
Loss |
-101 |
14 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Suns are not a playoff team - and they know it. Their frontcourt is nothing special and their backcourt isn't deep anymore. Until they beat hopeless Denver last night, the Suns were 1-8 in their last nine games, losing five in a row. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Western Conference matchups. The Suns lose part of their home-court edge having to play last night in Denver while the Thunder was idle. The Suns come home tired. Oklahoma City has covered in six of its last eight visits to the desert. The Thunder have covered in their last seven games. They are 4-0 since the All-Star break beating market expectations by 30 points during this span. No player has had a better February than Russell Westbrook. Serge Ibaka is playing at a high level now, too, and can help Oklahoma City's front line take advantage of the Suns' mediocre inside players. The Suns give up the third-most points in the NBA, have the sixth-lowest rebounding percentage in the league and are undergoing trade-transition trouble with nearly one-third of their roster revamped.
|
02-26-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 |
Top |
99-110 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 53 m |
Show
|
The timing is right to ride the red-hot Cavaliers and fade the Warriors in this matchup. Cleveland is 17-2 in its last 19 games and has won 10 in a row at home. They catch the Warriors in the middle of a six-game road swing and not playing up to their earlier high standards. In their last two games, the Warriors allowed the Pacers to shoot better than 48 percent from the floor and then allowed the Wizards to make 53.2 percent of their field goals this past Tuesday. Going back even further the Warriors only beat the 76ers by five points, Timberwolves by three and struggling Spurs by 11. Maybe in the end the Warriors prove to be the best team, but right now they are in a down cycle. The Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for this matchup especially with a revenge factor and being on the road during four of their next five games. Cleveland was missing LeBron James when it lost to Golden State last month and entered that matchup on a three-game losing streak. The key to beating the Warriors is limiting their fast breaks and defending well against the 3-pointer. The Cavaliers allow less than 10 fast break points at home, which leads the league. The Cavaliers have held their last three opponents to 22 percent from 3-point range.
|
02-25-15 |
Denver v. South Dakota -3.5 |
Top |
66-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 37 m |
Show
|
Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road. South Dakota has won five of its last six, including its last four. The Coyotes are playing consistent yet still are capable of more. This is what South Dakota coach Craig Smith was quoted as saying following the Coyotes' last game: We are consistently starting to play our best, but I am not sure if we've had our best game. But we've show more consistency in the last two weeks." South Dakota has the better offense, better athletes and stronger bench. Denver is in real danger if it gets into foul trouble. The Coyotes have a winning record in the Summit League, while Denver is five games below .500 in league play. South Dakota has covered six of the past eight times versus opponents with a losing mark. South Dakota defeated Denver, 74-69, on the road on Jan. 4. The Coyotes achieved this despite making just 41.8 percent of their shots from the floor while the Pioneers connected on 53.5 percent of their shots from the field. Denver also hit 17 of 20 free throws for 85 percent. The Pioneers are a good free throw shooting team, but not nearly that good. The Pioneers average fewer than 63 points per game. Denver won its last game, beating Western Illinois on the road. Western Illinois is tied for last in the Summit at 3-11. The Pioneers are 4-13 ATS the past 17 times following a victory. That was just their second road win in 11 away matchups this season. They are 2-8 ATS in their lined road contests this season. The Pioneers have failed to cover the past three times they've been underdogs.
|
02-25-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Atlanta Hawks -6 |
|
87-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Hawks are back on track after a satisfying road win at Milwaukee. They have had two days to rest and prepare and are back home. Dallas has had problems when stepping up in class. The Mavericks are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times playing a foe with a winning record.
The Mavericks' chemistry has been altered with Rajon Rondo and not in a positive way. Rondo and Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle got into a shouting match during last night's victory against the Raptors.
Dallas has padded its record against easy foes. The Hawks, though, are 14-3 ATS when playing an opponent with a record above .600.
It's an added plus if Tyson Chandler can't go for the Mavericks after he banged up his hip last night.
|
02-24-15 |
UNLV v. Utah State -2.5 |
|
65-83 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 40 m |
Show
|
Utah State is playing well winning and covering its past four games. The Aggies rank in the top 20 in 3-point shooting and hold a huge coaching edge with Stew Morrill against David Rice. This is a short turnaround for the Rebels, who upset New Mexico State on the road this past Saturday. That was just UNLV's second true road victory of the season. Utah State is 18-7-1 during its past 26 home games when taking on a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Aggies have a revenge motive, too, after losing in overtime to UNLV earlier this season.
|
02-24-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 v. Detroit Pistons |
Top |
102-93 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
|
Look I'm not fooled by the Pistons' 23-33 record. They are better than that and have been playing well going 18-10 in their last 28 games, including posting decisive victories against the Bulls and Wizards following All-Star break. But I'm not sold on the new-look Pistons stepping up in this matchup against a vastly superior opponent that is the hottest team in basketball. The Cavaliers have come together winning 16 of their last 18. During this time, the Cavaliers are shooting a league-best 47.9 percent from the field while averaging 108.6 points. The Cavaliers have adjusted to their new faces, Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. They have fit in well supporting superstars LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. The Pistons are on their third starting point guard with newcomer Reggie Jackson, who will be making just his second appearance with Detroit. Jackson likely will be joined in the starting lineup by another Detroit newcomer, Tayshaun Prince. The Cavaliers are the wrong team - at the wrong time - for the Pistons to make these adjustments against. Cleveland is 7-2 ATS on one day's rest and has covered 11 of the past 15 times following a win.
|
02-23-15 |
San Antonio Spurs -5 v. Utah Jazz |
Top |
81-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 33 m |
Show
|
You have to go back to mid-December to find the last time the Spurs dropped three in a row. The Spurs are 0-2 out of the All-Star break losing to the Clippers and Warriors. Now, though, they step way down in class. Utah is off an impressive 92-76 win against Portland this past Friday in its first game following All-Star break. That was the Jazz's second consecutive home victory. They haven't won three in a row at home all season. The young Jazz are a lottery team and very inconsistent. They are 11-15 at home with a .500 spread record in Salt Lake City. San Antonio's offense is down this season. Tony Parker has yet to fully get going. But the Spurs still average 97.6 points on the road. The Jazz have lost 30 of the past 34 times when giving up 97 or more points. The Spurs have a huge edge in talent with Parker, a still highly effective Tim Duncan at 38 and Kawhi Leonard. They aren't going to lack for motivation either off back-to-back defeats. When the teams last met on Jan. 18 in San Antonio, the Spurs held the Jazz to their lowest point total in 16 years winning 89-69.
|
02-22-15 |
Charlotte Hornets +10 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
81-92 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
The Hornets got the rust off on Saturday when they lost 110-103 to the hot Thunder at home. That was Charlotte's first game since Feb. 10. The Hornets had covered five straight times as underdogs until last night. They are contending for a playoff spot, upgraded their backcourt by adding veteran Mo Williams, who played extremely well last night, and rank fifth in fewest points allowed per game. Charlotte is scrappy, well-coached and usually very good in an underdog role. The Hornets also have covered in seven of their last nine road games. The Hornets can take advantage of Dallas' soft frontcourt with Al Jefferson and have perhaps their best defensive player back from injury in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Dallas is off a satisfying and much needed victory this past Friday against Houston. Up next for the Mavericks are far more challenging games against Toronto and Atlanta. The Mavericks are not a strong home club. They are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 home games. Dallas also is likely to be missing Chandler Parsons, who suffered a sprained ankle against the Rockets. Parsons is Dallas' third-leading scorer and top 3-point shooter. His absence will be felt especially with Monta Ellis in a shooting slump making only 35.1 percent of his shots from the floor during the last eight games.
|
02-22-15 |
Atlanta Hawks -4 v. Milwaukee Bucks |
Top |
97-86 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
The Hawks haven't lost three in a row all season. They will, though, if they lose this matchup. I don't see that happening. Atlanta wasn't playing up to its early high standard right before the All-Star break and then came out of the break getting blasted 105-80 by the Raptors at home. I see the Hawks hunkering down here, improving their defense and comfortably beating the Bucks. Milwaukee is playing well, but its lineup is different now with Brandon Knight gone. Until Michael Carter-Williams is ready to return from a toe injury - and it won't be here - the Bucks are way below average at point guard. The Bucks' strength is coaching, versatility and a strong bench. The Hawks have all of those traits, too, plus a far better starting lineup with four All-Stars. The Hawks have won during their last five visits to Bradley Center. There are several distractions the Bucks face, too. They were active at the trade deadline so adjustments have to be made. Also Larry Sanders was let go ending an on-going saga. Milwaukee was fortunate to draw totally messed-up Denver for its first game following the All-Star break. This is a huge step up in class. Atlanta received a wake-up call from the Raptors. The Hawks haven't been playing well - which is a big reason why this line is so low. But I see a full, focused effort from the more talented team. That should result in an easy Hawks cover.
|
02-21-15 |
Marshall +10.5 v. UAB |
Top |
54-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
UAB has qualified for the Conference USA Tournament. The Blazers are coming off a huge emotional home victory against Western Kentucky this past Thursday, 71-66. They are a decent, but far from outstanding team. Marshall has a bad record but has been coming on. The Thundering Herd had won and covered three in a row until suffering an embarrassing 90-51 road loss to Middle Tennessee State this past Thursday where they were outscored 50-7 at one juncture of the second half. This is what Marshall coach Dan D'Antoni was quoted as saying following that humiliation: "We've got to be a little more disciplined and a little more tougher minded. I thought when things went bad you could see them kind of drooped. You could see the droop. That was something we did early in the year and don't want that to come back." I see Marshall, which is still trying to qualify for the Conference USA Tournament, giving a full, all-out effort here and getting good line value due to its blowout loss in its last game. The Thundering Herd are 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. They also are 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss of more than 20 points. The Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
|
02-21-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans +2 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
105-91 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
I'll go with the borderline playoff team from the Western Conference against the borderline playoff team from the much inferior Eastern Conference. The Pelicans are a .500 club playing in the far more difficult division while Miami is 23-30. The Heat have been a better road club. They are 9-15 SU at home, 8-15-1 ATS. Miami is 2-8-1 during its past 11 home contests versus opponents with a losing road mark. This has become a crucial game for the Pelicans after losing last night to the Magic. Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson each returned from injury, but both were rusty against the Magic. They should both be much better today. The Heat have no one near the caliber of Davis. New Orleans has covered 13 of the past 16 times when playing without rest. Dwayne Wade is back for Miami from a hamstring injury, but his minutes may be limited since he played last night. The Heat had an easy time since they played the Knicks, who are now without Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. The Pelicans are several tiers above the Knicks. Goran Dragic could make his Miami debut here. However, there is going to be an adjustment period for Dragic, Wade and the rest of the team. Chris Bosh remains out and his health concerns must be a team distraction.
|
02-21-15 |
Ball State v. Central Michigan -11.5 |
|
60-83 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and has strong revenge motivation. The Chippewas were hammered 83-65 by Ball State last month. The Cardinals are 2-11 in conference. That's one of their MAC victories and an embarrassement to Central Michigan.
The Chippewas are the top offensive team in the conference and are hot having won four in a row. They rank 12th in the country in scoring at better than 79 points per game. Ball State ranks 294th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cardinals lack the defensive perimeter game to slow down the Chippewas' strong offense. Plus the Cardinals are worn down with multiple injuries.
The Cardinals have failed to cover in 8 of their last 10 games. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
|
02-21-15 |
Austin Peay +19 v. Murray State |
|
54-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 0 m |
Show
|
Murray State clearly is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay sits at the bottom of the West standings.
The Racers already have captured the league championship and No. 1 seed for the conference tournament. So they have no strong incentive. Austin Peay won't be going to the tournament barring a miracle. This is the Governors' Super Bowl. They only lost by 10 in the first meeting covering the 11 1/2-point spread two weeks ago. Now the line is close to 10 points higher.
Murray State coach Steve Prohm has a history of pulling his starters once his team reaches a comfortable lead. That leaves the backdoor wide open for Austin Peay. The Governors are a very bad shooting team, but they have outrebounded their opponents and created more turnovers during league play.
Murray State wins, but doesn't necessarily cover. The Racers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Ohio Valley games. Since Jan. 17, Austin Peay has been an underdog of 7 or more points four times. The Governors have covered each of those games.
The Governors should be rested and prepared. They've had a week off after their scheduled game for this past Tuesday at Eastern Kentucky was postponed.
|
02-20-15 |
Brooklyn Nets -3 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
Top |
114-105 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 52 m |
Show
|
Nobody is saying the Nets are a good team. But despite an awful record, the Nets are just one game out of a playoff spot. Brooklyn can't compete against elite teams, but can be trusted to take care of business against bottom feeders. The Lakers are 1-15 in their last 16 games going 3-12-1 ATS. They have dropped six in a row, rank last in defense and are in the midst of more lineup changes. Winning is not paramount with the Lakers. Improving their lottery position is. Minus Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have no one to push and motivate. The week-long All-Star break should prove beneficial to the veteran-laded Nets especially for Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. Brooklyn retained Brook Lopez so it has a scoring advantage inside against the Lakers. The Nets improved themselves at the All-Streak break trading Kevin Garnett for Thaddeus Young, who is averaging 14.3 points this season and ranked in the top three in steals last season. Young should be available against the Lakers. The Nets give up nearly seven fewer points per game than the Lakers and their defense is going to be improved with Young's presence. Brooklyn ranks 14th defensively despite not having a player ranked in the top 50 in steals. Brooklyn has four more road games on this Western Conference road trip. This is the Nets' easiest matchup. They can't afford not to be ready.
|
02-20-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Sacramento Kings -3.5 |
Top |
101-109 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 28 m |
Show
|
I see the Kings and their fans motivated and energized for the first time in a long period with the coaching switch to George Karl, who makes his Sacramento coaching debut here. The Kings have a huge frontcourt edge with DeMarcus Cousins, who is averaging a career-high 23.8 points and 12.5 rebounds. The Celtics are further hampered inside with Jared Sullinger out with a foot injury. Sullinger is Boston's leading scorer and rebounder. The Celtics lack size minus Sullinger. Boston's lacks the frontcourt depth to adequately replace Sullinger. The Celtics' backcourt was upgraded at the trade deadline yesterday with the acquisition of Isaiah Thomas. He is not expected to play tonight. If Thomas does play, it will be an adjustment with all new teammates. The Kings also know their former teammate. The Celtics have lost in their last three trips to Sacramento and are 1-4 ATS the past five times playing the Kings on the road.
|
02-20-15 |
Toronto Raptors +5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
105-80 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Hawks had lost some of their mojo going into All-Star break. They were just 3-3 and off a loss to Boston. The Hawks are one of the few teams that didn't benefit that much from the week long break as four of their players and head coach participated in the All-Star Game.
The Raptors have a history of playing well in their first game back following the All-Star break under Dwane Casey. They beat the Wizards on the road each of the past two years in these instances and three years ago nearly won at Houston despite having a terrible team.
Toronto is 2-1 versus the Hawks this season. The Raptors have outrebounded the Hawks in each of the games. The Hawks lack a wing man who scares the Raptors.
The Raptors match up well to the Hawks. They are the more rested team and have a good history in this spot.
|
02-19-15 |
Utah -8 v. Oregon State |
Top |
47-37 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 52 m |
Show
|
Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint. The Utes have won their Pac-12 games by an average of 22.8 points per game. They rank No. 1 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Oregon State doesn't have the offensive to stay with the Utes even at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have failed to cover in six of their last seven Pac-12 contests. The only thing keeping this spread under double-digits is Oregon State's unbeaten home mark. Look for that to get erased in a big way in this matchup, though.
|
02-19-15 |
San Antonio Spurs -2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
Top |
115-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 7 m |
Show
|
I like Doc Rivers, but no coach is better with extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich. This, of course, is the first game for both teams since the All-Star break. The Clippers entered the break 3-5 in their last eight games. They are not in great form especially defensively where they have surrendered an average of 110.4 points during their past five games. San Antonio plays at Golden State on Friday. The Spurs are not going to be favored in that matchup. No way does Popovich want his team losing their first two games following All-Star break. The Spurs also will be extra motivated by an embarrassing 105-85 home loss to the Clippers during their last meeting on Jan. 31. That was the Clippers' widest margin of victory ever against San Antonio. The star of the game was Blake Griffin, who scored 31 points and pulled down 13 rebounds. Griffin is expected to be out at least another two weeks after having surgery last week to remove a staph infection from his right elbow. The Spurs are the better defensive club, giving up four less points per game than the Clippers. San Antonio, though, is averaging 103.9 points per 100 possessions down from 108.2 from last season when they won the championship. Tony Parker hasn't had a great year. Look for Parker, who had been dealing with a sore hamstring, to be rejuvenated following the long break and up for the challenge of squaring off against fellow star point guard Chris Paul. The Spurs have a long history of starting to peak following the break. The Spurs have shown signs of coming on winning 13 of their last 17. They are fresh following the All-Star break, are a prideful, extremely well-coached team with revenge and draw the Clippers minus their star inside scorer, Griffin. All of this should result in the Spurs winning this game by more than a basket.
|
02-18-15 |
Northwestern +11 v. Minnesota |
Top |
72-66 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 35 m |
Show
|
Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten. The Wildcats have had only one bad conference road loss in six trips. They covered at Wisconsin. They beat Rutgers, which defeated Wisconsin at home. The Wildcats also took Michigan State to overtime in East Lansing and lost hard-fought road games to Michigan and Maryland by a combined three points. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road matchups. Minnesota's defensive weakness is 3-point defense. The Gophers give up 35.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc, ranking them 241st. Northwestern ranks fifth in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting at 35.8 percent. The Gophers were blown out in their last game by Indiana, which leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting. Prior to that game, the Gophers had won three in a row beating Iowa, Purdue and Nebraska. The Hawkeyes ranked ninth in the league in 3-point shooting while the Boilermakers were 12th and Cornhuskers 14th. Before meeting Indiana, the Gophers had played just one of the Big Ten's top five 3-point shooting teams and that was Maryland. The Terrapins made eight 3-pointers in beating the Gophers, 70-58, at home. Northwestern lost to the Terrapins by one point on the road. Minnesota has failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 Big Ten games. Its last two meetings against Northwestern have been decided by a combined seven points.
|
02-18-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona State -2.5 |
|
66-68 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 8 m |
Show
|
UCLA is not the same team on the road. The Bruins are just 3-9 away from Pauley Pavilion. Lack of depth and experience has hurt the Bruins on the road. Arizona is the second-most experienced team in the Pac-12 and has the guard depth to take advantage of UCLA's road woes.
Arizona State has stepped up its offense averaging just under 75 points in its last eight games. The Sun Devils are the second-highest scoring team in the league and have the best field goal percentage. UCLA ranks ninth in the Pac-12 in points allowed per game.
UCLA has a look-ahead game this Saturday at seventh-ranked Arizona. The Sun Devils defeated Arizona by three points at home earlier this month.
|
02-17-15 |
Michigan State -4 v. Michigan |
Top |
80-67 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 30 m |
Show
|
Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions. Michigan State is off its best week of the season blowing out Northwestern on the road and defeating then 23rd-ranked Ohio State this past Saturday. This is the time where Tom Izzo has his Spartans starting to peak. I don't see them taking a step back against a banged-up and demoralized Michigan squad that has lost three overtime contests during its past six games. Michigan has lost five of its past six, including its last four. The Wolverines have a short bench and are minus their best players as Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert remain out. Their perimeter game really is hurting without those two. The Wolverines are averaging 57 points during regulation in their last three games. Michigan State ranks 54th defensively giving up 61.2 points. I don't see the Wolverines putting up enough points to get the cover. Note, too, that Michigan has failed to cover in nine of its last 13 home games.
|
02-17-15 |
Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -11 |
|
75-88 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 47 m |
Show
|
Notre Dame is rested and prepared to blow out Wake Forest. The Irish last played a week ago. They had not been playing well during their last four games - losing at Pittsburgh, only beating ACC-worst Boston College by eight in their last home game on Feb. 4, getting blown out by 30 to Duke and nipping Clemson by two. Look for the Irish to be rejuvenated following a welcome seven days of rest and practice. Wake Forest nearly upset third-ranked Virginia this past Saturday, losing 61-60. The Demon Deacons meet the Cavaliers in their next game. I don't see the Demon Deacons, 4-9 in the ACC, stepping up in consecutive games. Notre Dame has too much offense for Wake Forest ranking 14th in the country in scoring at 79.2 points per game. The Irish lost twice to Wake Forest last season so double revenge is added motivation. Notre Dame isn't in action again until Saturday when it plays Boston College so a fully focused effort should be ensured.
|
02-16-15 |
Pittsburgh +13 v. Virginia |
Top |
49-61 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 7 m |
Show
|
The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road. But there is far more behind the records that indicate the underdog Panthers are the right play in this matchup. Pitt is playing its finest ball. In their last five games, the Panthers have gone 4-1 with their only loss during this span coming to Louisville in which they led by six with 12 minutes left. Pittsburgh has knocked off Syracuse, Notre Dame and North Carolina by 13 points in its last game during this span. The Panthers aren't going to lack for motivation even coming off the huge win against the Tar Heels just two days ago. That's because they likely need a win - or at least to play a close game - to impress the NCAA Tournament committee that they are capable of playing well on the road since they lack quality road victories. This is what Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon was quoted as saying about his team, "You're seeing guys improve. They're playing with a lot of confidence. We're getting better at the right time." Virginia is not the same since losing forward Justin Anderson, its best player and defender. He's missed the past two games with a broken finger and remains out. Since Anderson was lost, the Cavaliers beat North Carolina State, 51-47, as a 7-point road favorite and nipped Wake Forest, 61-60, at home as an 18-point favorite this past Saturday. The Demon Deacons had the ball at the end with a chance to win. Virginia was 3-of-23 from 3-point range in those two games. Anderson is by far the Cavaliers' best 3-point shooter. North Carolina State and Wake Forest are a combined 10-16 in ACC games. The Panthers played the Cavaliers tough during their two meetings last season losing 48-45 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer and falling 51-48 in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Panthers shot a combined 34.4 percent from the floor in those two games and still lost each time by just three points. No, the Panthers aren't going to shoot 64.9 percent from the floor and score 89 points like they did versus North Carolina two days ago. But they are more than capable of keeping this far closer than this spread indicates especially with Anderson out for the Cavaliers.
|
02-15-15 |
California +17.5 v. Utah |
|
61-76 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
Cal has turned things around winning five in a row. The Golden Bears are 5-2 in true road games. They've won their past three away games while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road contests. Utah, of course, is very strong. But this is just too many points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering five of the past seven times. The Utes are very good, especially at home. There's no denying that. But they've been fortunate to catch their road opponents either in a rut or with injuries. That's not the case with Cal, which comes in with a lot of momentum. The Golden Bears are one of the stronger defensive teams in the Pac-12 and have an excellent guard in Tyrone Wallace and a top 3-point shooter in Jordan Mathews, who has made at least three 3-pointers in four of his last five games. The Bears are a scrappy and physical team. KenPom ranks the Bears as the eighth-best defensive rebounding team in the country.
|
02-15-15 |
Illinois +13.5 v. Wisconsin |
Top |
49-68 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season. Wisconsin is outstanding, obviously capable of winning the NCAA championship. So this isn't a fade on the Badgers. It's just a strong belief that Illinois can keep this close. The Illini have reached a high point in their season with four straight victories pushing their record to 17-8. Illinois is capable owning victories against Baylor and Maryland, two teams that rank in the top 15 in the RPI standings. The Illini also have senior guard and leading scorer Rayvonte Rice back. He had missed nine games with a broken hand and team suspension, but got some rust off against Michigan in the Illini's last game. Rice averaged 21.5 points in two meetings against the Badgers last season.
|
02-14-15 |
New Mexico v. Nevada +4.5 |
|
63-66 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 31 m |
Show
|
Nevada will be going all out at home off their worst defensive effort of the season and having dropped their last four at Lawlor Events Center. In three of their last four home losses, the Wolf Pack lost by a combined 10 points to UNLV, San Diego State and Fresno State. Expect another close game here. New Mexico is a .500 Mountain West team that lacks enough offense to cover this large of a road number against what should be a fired-up Wolf Pack squad desperate to give their home fans a victory. The Lobos aren't playing well dropping five of their last six. Their only victory during this span was against last-place San Jose State, who is 2-21 on the season and in total disarray.
|
02-14-15 |
Oregon State -1 v. USC |
Top |
55-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 34 m |
Show
|
Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though. Oregon State is hungry to establish its credibility away from Corvallis. It desperately needs a road win and the timing is right here. USC is really struggling. The Trojans last won on Jan. 7. They've lost nine in a row and are likely to be without point guard Jordan McLaughlin, who injured his surgically repaired left shoulder during USC's 80-75 home loss to Oregon this past Wednesday. McLaughlin, the Trojans' team leader in assists, steals and minutes played, is difficult to replace. USC is thin and weak shooting in the backcourt. Making matters worse for the Trojans is Oregon State has one of the best defensive backcourts in the country. Gary Payton II has 70 steals and is one of the top all-around guards in the country. He has at least one steal in 24 straight games. USC has covered just 31 percent of its last 62 home games. Oregon State has beaten USC eight of the past 11 times and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times against foes with a losing mark.
|
02-13-15 |
Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 |
Top |
59-63 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 46 m |
Show
|
Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0. I want Valpo going for me at home and in a revenge spot. The Crusaders lost 51-50 on the road to Green Bay on Jan. 23. Valpo fell by one point on the road to the Phoenix despite shooting less than 35 percent from the floor and missing 16 consecutive shots in the second half. Look for the Crusaders to be far more in sync at home where they are 11-1 on the season. Since that loss to Green Bay, the Crusaders have won four in a row. The Phoenix, on the other hand, have failed to cover in four of their last five Horizon League games. Green Bay's senior point guard Keifer Sykes might be the best player in the Horizon League. But Valpo has the more balanced lineup and a star, too, in Alec Peters. He's averaging 17.3 points and is on pace to become the first sophomore in program history to score 1,000 points in a season for the Crusaders. Valpo hasn't lost all season when Peters reaches double figures.
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02-12-15 |
Stanford +11.5 v. Utah |
Top |
59-75 |
Loss |
-122 |
15 h 34 m |
Show
|
Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games. Randle leads the Pac-12 in scoring and made 7 of 10 shots from 3-point range when the Cardinal beat Utah, 61-60, in last season's regular-season finale. Stanford is doing a great job getting to the free throw line shooting 26 more free throws than its opponents during the past six games. The Cardinal have lost their four Pac-12 games by an average of five points. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times facing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.
|
02-11-15 |
Oregon -4 v. USC |
|
80-75 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 35 m |
Show
|
Oregon is coming on while USC has dropped eight in a row done in by inexperience and lack of offense. The Trojans rank last in the Pac-12 in offensive efficiency. They have covered only 32 percent of their last 61 home games. Nikola Jovanovic is USC's leading scorer at 12.7 points per game. He's missed 14 of 21 shots from the floor during the last three games. Oregon ranks 20th in the nation in scoring at 77.2 points per game. Then Ducks have the Pac-12's leading scorer in Joseph Young and gets back from suspension Jordan Bell, who leads the Ducks in rebounding and is the seventh-leading shot-blocker in the country. The Ducks have been red-hot from the free throw line, too, hitting 84 percent in their last six games. They also have defeated USC nine consecutive times.
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02-11-15 |
San Antonio Spurs -6 v. Detroit Pistons |
Top |
104-87 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 38 m |
Show
|
The Spurs shouldn't lack motivation as they have revenge for a blown 18-point lead in a 105-104 home loss to the Pistons last month. San Antonio was missing Kawhi Leonard in that game and Tony Parker missed the second half. The Spurs are healthy now. Detroit has failed to cover in 21 of its last 30 home games. The Pistons are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 home contests versus foes with a winning road mark. The Pistons are fat and happy heading into break having defeated the Hornets on the road last night in big fashion. The Pistons have a huge backcourt disadvantage minus Brandon Jennings, who scored the winning basket in their earlier victory against San Antonio.
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02-10-15 |
Xavier -3 v. Marquette |
|
64-44 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
Xavier is ranked 34th in the NCAA Daily RPI while Marquette rates 114th. The 15-9 Musketeers clearly are the superior team probably around a ninth seed if the NCAA Tournament were being seeded right now. Marquette has a losing record. The key here is how Xavier will play on the road. In two of the Musketeers' last three road games they had good performances upsetting Georgetown and losing in overtime to Providence. Marquette has failed to cover in its last four home contests. The Golden Eagles are a big effort team, but they could start to wear down with just seven scholarship players as life in the physical Big East takes a toll this late in the season. Marquette has a short bench and could be without leading scorer, senior guard Matt Carlino. He suffered a concussion six days ago against Villanova and missed the Golden Eagles' last game. Carlino scored 27 points in the team's first meeting won by Xavier, 62-58. The Musketeers struggled with Marquette's pressure defense in that game scoring only 22 points in the first half. Look for Xavier to be better prepared now that they've faced the Golden Eagles and with something to prove being on the road. The Musketeers are riding a wave of confidence after a 78-69 win over Providence this past Saturday. Marquette also is coming off a win, a road victory against Seton Hall on Saturday. Prior to that, however, the Golden Eagles had dropped six in a row.
|
02-10-15 |
Brooklyn Nets +12.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies |
Top |
86-95 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
The Nets are an old, veteran team composed of one-time stars past their primes. They are vulnerable to athletic, deep teams. Memphis isn't especially athletic, nor does it have a deep bench. The Grizzlies' strength is rebounding and physical play. They are much more of an Eastern Conference team than a racehorse Western Conference opponent. Brooklyn has defeated Memphis in two of its past three meetings. The Nets can hang with them matchup-wise and won't lack for motivation. The veteran Nets have a lot of prideful players. This is their last game before All-Star break. The Nets are battling for a playoff spot and also some of their veterans - Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson come quickly to mind - are playing for their futures. There are trade rumors swirling around them. So a strong effort should be forthcoming. The Grizzlies aren't looking to cover a double-digit margin. They have a more important game and tougher opponent on deck Wednesday when they play the Thunder in Oklahoma City.
|
02-09-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers +9 v. Dallas Mavericks |
Top |
115-98 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 53 m |
Show
|
This marks the Clippers' final game of their eight-game road trip that started Jan. 28. The trip has turned into a disaster with Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick out. The Clippers have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They have a high fatigue rating here. But they also are catching far too many points here in a step-up spot against an overrated foe that is 3-11 against the Western Conference's seven other teams in playoff position. Dallas is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games versus Western Conference foes and has covered just 40 percent of its home games this season. The Clippers have been hurt on the boards, outrebounded by 46 during their last three games. The Mavericks are not a good rebounding team, though, and will have trouble dealing with DeAndre Jordan, who has averaged 16.4 points and 15.2 rebounds in his last five games versus the Mavericks.
|
02-08-15 |
San Antonio Spurs -1 v. Toronto Raptors |
Top |
82-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 28 m |
Show
|
The won-lost records show Toronto better than San Antonio at 34-17 compared to the Spurs' 32-18. But make no mistake, there is a class difference between these two clubs. The Spurs are far superior to the Raptors. The defending world champions finally appear healthy now for the first time. This is the opening game of the Spurs' annual rodeo road swing - nine consecutive away matchups. San Antonio just concluded a 5-1 homestand and has won nine of its last 11. The Spurs won't be home again until March 4. They certainly want to start their trip out right. The Spurs are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS this season when beginning a road trip of two or more games. No coach is more dangerous with a day of extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich. The Spurs have added incentive here, too, because their next victory would give Popovich his 1,000th win. Popovich is not the type of guy who wants that distraction and hoopla to linger with his team. The Spurs want to achieve that milestone for Popovich as soon as possible. Toronto took advantage of a tired Clippers squad to post a 123-107 win two days ago. Prior to that, however, the Raptors lost games to the Bucks and Nets, two borderline playoff teams in the much weaker Eastern Conference. The Raptors have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games and are 3-12-1 ATS on one days rest. They also are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games when facing a foe with a winning road mark. San Antonio not only has a winning road record - straight-up and ATS - but has won seven in a row versus the Raptors, including the past four in Toronto. The Spurs are far better than the Raptors on one day rest covering 23 of the past 34 times during those instances.
|
02-08-15 |
Washington v. Oregon State -3 |
|
50-64 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 20 m |
Show
|
Oregon State is 13-0 at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers are like night and day when they are home compared to the road. The Beavers have revenge and Washington has lost its best big people. The Huskies aren't nearly as good or dangerous minus Robert Upshaw, who was leading the nation in blocked shots, and Jernard Jarreau. Washington still has an excellent point guard, Nigel Williams-Gross. But he faces tremendous backcourt pressure from the Beavers. Williams-Gross also is facing a fatigue issue having played the entire game during four of the past five games. The Huskies have a losing road mark, both SU and ATS. Oregon State is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times hosting an opponent with a losing road mark. Washington shot a season-best 56.6 percent from the floor in its last game this past Wednesday at Oregon. Yet the Huskies still lost by four points. They aren't going to shoot that well in this matchup. Oregon State limits foes to an average of 56.6 points a game and ranks sixth in the country in defensive field goal percentage.
|
02-07-15 |
VCU v. Saint Bonaventure +3 |
|
71-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
VCU managed to cover against George Mason this past Wednesday, 72-60, in a game that was closer than the final score. The Rams won that game despite missing point guard Briante Weber, lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in a 64-55 loss to Richmond on Jan. 31. But I don't see the Rams covering here especially if leading scorer Treveon Graham is out, too. VCU leads the Atlantic 10, but is vulnerable especially in this road matchup. Graham suffered a high ankle sprain in the victory against George Mason. Even if he manages to play he'll be limited. Weber's loss is huge. He was leading the country in steals per game and had a tremendous assist-to-turnover ratio. St. Bonaventure is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games versus foes with a winning road mark. The Bonnies are coming off a dramatic 62-61 road win against Davidson on a basket by Marcus Posley at the buzzer this past Wednesday. Posley leads the Bonnies in scoring at 17.4 points a game and is hitting 36.6 percent from 3-point range. The Bonnies have a good inside-outside game with 7-foot center Youssou Ndoye and Posley. The Bonnies have covered five of their last six games.
|
02-06-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 |
Top |
97-103 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
Matchup-wise Orlando is the more talented team. They have the best frontcourt player in Nikola Vucevic and a huge backcourt advantage. Throw in a huge situational spot for the Magic and it's worth laying this number. The Magic are desperate to end their 10-game losing streak and five-game home losing skid. Orlando is better than its 15-37 record with Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and Elfrid Payton. The Lakers can't match that young talent. On Thursday, the Magic addressed their underachieving ways by firing coach Jacque Vaughn and his young assistant coaches. A coaching change usually brings short term positive results especially one needed as much as this. Interim coach James Borrego, who is 37, will be anxious to prove himself now that he has a chance. It's probably not a coincidence the Magic made the coaching move right before playing the Lakers, who have lost eight in a row on the road and 11 of their past 12 overall games. The Lakers' morale can't be too good after blowing a late six-point lead in regulation during their last game falling in overtime to the Bucks on the road. That loss had to sting Lakers coach Bryon Scott, who doesn't like Bucks coach Jason Kidd. The feud stems from when Scott coached Kidd when they were with the Nets. Orlando has added incentive because the Lakers blew them out earlier this season. The Lakers likely won't be nearly as motivated coming off the matchup versus Kidd's Bucks and with a national TV game coming up next against LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Sunday. The Magic have been competitive in their last two games against far superior competition going against the Thunder and Spurs on the road. They lost to both of these teams by seven points, covering each game. Now they drop down in class to face the bottom-five Lakers.
|
02-05-15 |
Washington State +9 v. Oregon State |
Top |
50-55 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 28 m |
Show
|
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow. The Beavers are last in the Pac-12 in scoring at 54.6 points per game and last in offensive efficiency. Their point total goes down to 45.6 a game if you factor just Pac-12 matchups. They have just a seven man rotation, which is starting to wear thin. None of their top seven players are shooting 50 percent. Washington State is playing better defense, does a good job of getting to the free throw line, has two excellent key players and is off a confidence-building 89-88 win against Stanford this past Saturday that halted a four-game losing streak. The Cougars' 6-foot-10 forward Josh Hawkinson is one of only two players in the conference to average a double-double scoring 15.1 points per game and a Pac-12-best 10.8 rebounds. Senior guard Davonte Lacy averages 17.7 points per game and has scored 49 points in his last two games.
|
02-04-15 |
Detroit Pistons v. Indiana Pacers -3 |
|
109-114 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
Fortunate to be in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers remain in the playoff hunt. They have double revenge motivation and catch the Pistons without rest off a big home win against Miami last night.
The Pacers have had a ton of injuries, but point guard George Hill is back and his minutes are increasing. That's a key.
I don't like the Pistons' situation at point guard with Brandon Jennings out for the season. Journeyman D.J. Augustine isn't going to be that effective in a back-to-back situation and he has nothing proven behind him.
|
02-04-15 |
Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke |
Top |
66-72 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 8 m |
Show
|
Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game.
Georgia Tech's record is misleading. The Yellow Jackets have lost seven ACC games by seven points or less, including falling to North Carolina State by one point in overtime on a 3-pointer at the buzzer in their last game. In their previous game, they upset Miami on the road winning by 20 points.
Georgia Tech is a proven road commodity covering 12 of its last 16 away matchups. Duke is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 ACC games.
|
02-03-15 |
Utah Jazz +8.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers |
Top |
102-103 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 14 m |
Show
|
The Trail Blazers are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. This skid is not deceiving. The Trail Blazers are not playing well. It's too big a leap of faith to believe the Trail Blazers can just turn it on here and bury the Jazz. Utah is 6-6 in its last 12 road games. The Jazz have covered 10 of their last 14 road contests. They are loose, feel no pressure and are off a confidence-building 110-100 home victory over powerful Golden State. That game was back on Friday so the Jazz have had plenty of time to come down from that high while preparing for this matchup. The Jazz have had good point spread success in Portland covering seven of the past 10 times there. Portland is down two big men with Robin Lopez and to a much lesser extent Joel Freeland both being out. The Jazz have a physical, tall front line that's helped them post nearly a plus nine rebounding margin per game during the last five games. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are Portland's two best players. The team has a weak bench. Aldridge is holding up so far, but the heavy minutes he's been playing have caught up to Lillard as we near All-Star break. The point guard is shooting just 33 percent from the floor during the last 10 games. This is Portland's first home game since Jan. 24. The Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck hosting Phoenix Thursday. Utah has been idle since Friday so it's a good spot, too, for the Jazz.
|
02-03-15 |
Miami Heat +4.5 v. Detroit Pistons |
|
91-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 46 m |
Show
|
The Heat are much better on the road where they have a winning straight-up record and 14-9-1 ATS mark. Detroit isn't the same without point guard and catalyst Brandon Jennings. The Pistons are 1-4 in their last five games. The Heat are much improved inside thanks to Hassan Whiteside. Dwayne Wade remains out, but Chris Bosh is playing and Luol Deng could return. Miami has won nine of the past 10 times when visiting Detroit.
|
02-02-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies -2 v. Phoenix Suns |
Top |
102-101 |
Loss |
-111 |
15 h 56 m |
Show
|
The guard-oriented, finesse Suns are not a good matchup against the physical, rugged Grizzlies, who are playing their finest defense of the season. Phoenix has lost six in a row to Memphis, including twice this season by an average of 11.5 points although one game did go into overtime. The Grizzlies have won 10 of their last 11, including six straight. They are giving up only 82.6 points per game during their last six games. In their last two games, the Grizzlies held Oklahoma City to 74 points and Denver to 69. Phoenix only managed 87 points against Golden State in its last game this past Saturday at home during a 19-point loss. The Warriors rank No. 1 defensively. Memphis is No. 2 defensively. The Grizzlies are a solid 14-7 on the road with a winning away spread mark. The Suns are just a .500 team versus the spread at home.
|
02-02-15 |
Wisconsin Green Bay -5.5 v. Wright State |
|
71-58 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 49 m |
Show
|
Green Bay is coming off just its fifth loss of the season falling at Cleveland State this past Saturday. The Phoenix have won and covered in the game following their previous four defeats. They have a strong historical trend in this direction covering 68 percent of the time during the past 59 instances. The Phoenix are the superior team and much healthier. They rolled past Wright State, 79-55, in their first meeting on Jan. 5. The Raiders are a .500 team with injuries. Among the players they will be missing are forward JT Yoho, their leading scorer and rebounder. Also out is senior guard Kendall Griffin, who suffered a concussion in the Raiders' last game, an overtime loss at Oakland this past Wednesday. Wright State is 1-4 in its last five games, including losses to Cleveland State and Valparaiso in its last two home contests.
|
02-01-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots |
Top |
24-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
229 h 48 m |
Show
|
New England has a strong offense and a decent-to-good defense. Seattle has the best defense I've seen since the 1985-86 Bears and a mediocre offense with the exception of a top-four running back, Marshawn Lynch, and a big-play quarterback, Russell Wilson, who rates with Aaron Rodgers (when healthy) and Andrew Luck as the only quarterbacks who can beat you three ways - with their arm, brain and feet. Defense trumps offense even in today's watered-down, skewed-to-the-offense NFL. Seattle held Peyton Manning's record-shattering Broncos offense to eight points in last year's Super Bowl. New England's offense isn't as potent. Tom Brady is 37 and still good. But he's not in his prime. He hasn't faced a defense this strong all season. Brady, Bill Belichick and the rest of the Patriots also have to deal with the underinflated football issue, which is a huge distraction. Don't expect the Patriots to be the beneficiary of many lucky referee calls. The betting line is too high on New England right now based on how well the Patriots looked in the AFC title game against the Colts and how bad the Seahawks played against the Packers. No doubt the Seahawks stunk in that game and were lucky to survive. That was Seattle's bad, turnover-filled game. I don't see it happening twice in a row. Prior to the matchup against the Packers, the Seahawks had given up an average of eight points during their last SEVEN games - all victories by double-digits. Brady gets all the recognition, but previous to the Packers game it was Wilson who held the highest all-time quarterback rating in the playoffs. Wilson's record versus playoff teams this year is 7-1. The Seahawks are 20-7-1 (74 percent) ATS during their last 28 games versus opponents with a winning record. Here are my prop recommendations: Rob Gronkowski UNDER on receiving yards Props are tilted to the over because the house knows the public wants to root for scoring and big plays. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. He's going to have a high yardage total attached to him and probably still draw over money so I wouldn't be in a hurry to bet this as it may still go up. The Seahawks, though, are great at stopping tight ends. They have held the opposition's top tight end to an average of 28.1 yards during the last 15 games. The best tight ends they faced during this span were Greg Olsen twice, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten and Julius Thomas. Olsen averaged 37 yards a game. Ertz had 39 yards. Kelce was held to 37 yards. Witten managed just 24 yards and Thomas only 17 yards. Thomas was held to just 27 yards in last year's Super Bowl. The Seahawks are so tough against tight ends for several reasons. K.J. Wright probably is the best coverage linebacker in the NFL. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the best safety tandem in the NFL if not of all-time. The Seahawks know Gronkowski is the one stud the Patriots have. They are not going to let him beat them. Shortest Successful Field Goal OVER 24 1/2 yards Pete Carroll saw first-hand how Mike McCarthy cost Green Bay a victory by taking short field goals and not going for it on fourth down and short. Carroll is a gambler anyways. Bill Belichick also is a gambler. He's also astute enough to not deflate his offense's confidence by settling for a short field goal if a fourth down play deep in Seattle territory is manageable. Belichick knows, too, the Seahawks just couldn't play for a short Brady pass because of power back LeGarrette Blount. Russell Wilson UNDER rushing yards Wilson is the best running quarterback in football, a fact not lost on the Patriots. They will have a full-time spy on Wilson in case he breaks containment. Because they have excellent cornerbacks, including shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, the Patriots will be able to play their safeties in the box looking to stop the run first. The Patriots are very familiar, too, with read-option quarterbacks as their AFC East Division was loaded with them - Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill and E.J. Manuel. Seattle to record the most quarterback sacks The Patriots figure to throw more and Brady is far less mobile than Wilson. The Seahawks are not a big blitzing team, but after failing to apply pressure on Aaron Rodgers in their last game they could have some surprise new wrinkles to generate heat.
|
02-01-15 |
Miami Heat +3.5 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
83-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
While the Celtics are in rebuild mode again this season having dealt Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, the Heat are fighting for a playoff spot and consider this a crucial game as they begin a four-game road trip. Miami is a miserable 8-15 at home, but 12-11 on the road. The Heat have covered 59 percent of their away matchups. Boston is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when hosting an opponent with a winning road mark. The Celtics are five games under .500 at home. Their home attendance may be down for this matchup with the Patriots playing in the Super Bowl later in the day. Miami has covered nine of the last 10 times versus foes with a losing home mark. Boston has lost five of its past six home games, including the last three. The Heat buried the Celtics, 100-84, at home when they last met on Dec. 21. What's significant about that is the Heat won by 16 despite not having Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside has emerged has an inside force ranking in the top 10 in rebounding and leading the league in blocked shots since Jan. 11. He's averaging 17.7 rebounds and 15.3 points during his last three games. Boston is a below average rebounding team without a starter taller than 6-foot-9. Wade is out again, but Bosh and Whiteside will play. So could Luol Deng, who has missed the last two games with a calf injury.
|
01-31-15 |
Charlotte Hornets +7 v. Denver Nuggets |
|
104-86 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 25 m |
Show
|
No team is giving up fewer points per game this month than Charlotte at 89.8. The Nuggets have been in a scoring slump averaging 93.1 points during their past seven games. Brian Shaw still can't seem to figure out the right rotation. Denver has lost eight of its past nine.
Al Jefferson is getting better each game since his return from injury. This will be his sixth game back since being out with a groin injury. Jefferson had 22 points when the Hornets beat the Nuggets, 110-82, at home last month.
|
01-31-15 |
Houston Rockets -4.5 v. Detroit Pistons |
|
101-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
The Pistons have yet to win in three games since losing point guard Brandon Jennings for the season. Detroit just has journeyman D.J. Augustin and rookie Spencer Dinwiddie as their only point guards now.
The Pistons only scored 69 points against the 76ers this past Wednesday in their last game. The Rockets have won four in a row. They beat Boston on the road last night by six points despite James Harden missing 17 of 21 shots from the floor.
The Rockets have won the last seven in this series. The return of Terrence Jones reduces the loss of Dwight Howard.
|
01-30-15 |
Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
93-87 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
Dwight Howard isn't going to play, but the Celtics have a weak front line and the spread isn't as high as it would be if Howard were playing.
The Celtics have dropped 10 of their last 15. They just aren't a very good team as they keep getting rid of their best players in an effort to rebuild. They also are banged up in the backcourt as neither Avery Bradley nor Evan Turner is 100 percent.
This is a difficult schedule spot for Boston. The Celtics just got through playing six consecutive road games that took them to the Pacific Time Zone then Mountain Time Zone and then back to West Coast time. Now they're playing on Eastern time.
Houston has recovered from its recent losses to Golden State to post three straight victories and covers beating the Suns, Lakers and Mavericks. Getting underrated Terrence Jones back helps reduce the loss of Howard.
The Rockets have covered 11 of the past 12 times when playing a below .500 opponent and have covered 10 of the last 13 times in Boston.
|
01-30-15 |
Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets +7.5 |
|
127-122 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
Since they met in the playoffs last season, the Raptors have remained good while the Nets have sunk to the point where they would miss the postseason if the playoffs began now. But this might work to Brooklyn's advantage in this matchup because now Toronto has a much bigger game on Saturday when it takes on the Wizards. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Brooklyn, losers of 11 of its last 13 and six straight at home. The Nets should be highly motivated and rested as this marks just their second game in a week due to Monday's home game postponement against Portland. The extra rest has given the Nets some extra pep in their step and helped reduce some of the tendinitis in Joe Johnson's knee, which has slowed him down. Deron Williams won't be ready to return to the court yet, but Jarrett Jack has been playing well in his absence. The Nets do play respectable defense ranking 13th. They've held 28 opponents under 100 points. Brooklyn also has won four of its five home contests versus the Raptors. The Raptors are playing for the third time in four nights - all in different cities. They need to cut back the minutes of some of their key players here with Washington on deck tomorrow night.
|
01-29-15 |
Utah -6.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
59-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
|
Utah has too much talent, height, balance and depth for UCLA. The Utes clobbered the Bruins by 32 points earlier this month and I can't see the banged-up Bruins regrouping enough, even at home, to keep from losing by less than double-digits. UCLA is 3-7 in its last 10 games and coming back from an 0-2 trip to Oregon where it lost by a combined 29 points to the Beavers and Ducks. Ill health is hurting the Bruins. Senior guard Norman Powell has been playing with various aliments and missed practice on Tuesday. Junior center Tony Parker has missed the last two games due to back spasms and may not play. The Bruins have one of the thinnest benches in the Pac-12. Utah has a physical, intimidating front line aided by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl, who ranks eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Utes have lost only three times with two of those defeats occurring to top-10 teams. Utah doesn't beat itself and has impressive trends to back it up such as being 39-16-1 ATS in its last 56 Pac-12 games and 45-19-3 ATS in its last 67 games versus an opponent with a winning record.
|
01-29-15 |
Colorado v. USC +2.5 |
|
98-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 33 m |
Show
|
Colorado is a bad road team, has injuries and USC is playing better than it record shows. The Buffaloes have yet to win on the road this season in six games. Colorado is without leading rebounder Josh Scott, who did not make the trip to Los Angeles because of back spasms, and third-leading scorer Xavier Johnson is dealing with an ankle injury. Those are two of Colorado's three best players. Johnson has missed the last three games and missed practice on Tuesday. The Trojans have dropped four in a row, but have only played one bad half during their last five games. Three of their defeats were by a total of 14 points. The Trojans lost to Stanford by two. They were tied with Oregon with under six minutes left and lost by four to Oregon State this past Saturday. Those three teams are a combined 42-16, including 14-7 in the Pac-12. So I see a lot of growth and improvement from USC that hasn't shown up yet on the won-lost record. Sources tell me the Trojans have had great practices this week. This is the game where the Trojans get over the hump being home against a crippled Colorado team that has dropped four of its last five.
|
01-29-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic +4.5 |
Top |
115-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
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Both of these teams are in rebuilding mode. The Bucks have made bigger strides this season under Jason Kidd and own the stronger bench, but Orlando has the better talent with Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and an improving rookie point guard in Elfrid Payton. Even though Miami and Orlando are way down this season, it's still not that easy to do the Florida two-step and beat the Heat and Magic in consecutive road games, which is what the Bucks are trying to do. The Magic have absolutely owned Milwaukee in Orlando winning the past 17 times! The last time the Bucks won in Orlando was 2004. That sustained kind of history can't be discounted. The Magic usually give the Bucks problems covering in nine of the last 12 meetings. Orlando has dropped 12 of its last 14. The Magic players and coach Jacque Vaughn believe their team is very close to turning things around. Orlando has been idle since Monday. Milwaukee is playing its third consecutive road game and is minus Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders in the middle. The Magic's next three games are against Western Conference foes the Mavericks, Spurs and Thunder. That's likely three more losses. This is the matchup they want. So they should be well prepared and motivated.
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01-28-15 |
Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 |
Top |
55-73 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 11 m |
Show
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Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season. But the Beavers are in a tough spot here - and the oddsmaker knows it with this spread. I want Arizona State going for me here, though, so I will lay this many points. Oregon State is 12-0 at home, but has a losing straight-up and spread record on the road. Arizona State is just 10-10, but 9-2 at home. The Sun Devils have played five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road. Going back to last season, the Sun Devils have won 17 of their past 19 home contests. This is a key matchup for the Sun Devils and I expect them to be going all out. They were out-hustled by the Beavers when they played in Corvallis 20 days ago losing 55-47. Arizona State played with great defensive intensity in a 79-44 road victory against California two games ago, However, that intensity deserted the Sun Devils in their last game, an embarrassing 89-70 road defeat to Stanford this past Saturday. Now the Sun Devils are home for three consecutive games. Arizona State's offense has gotten better since meeting Oregon State. The Sun Devils are averaging 75.6 points in their last three games. Arizona State has reduced its turnovers during this span, a key against Oregon State's tenacious defensive backcourt headed by Gary Payton II. The Sun Devils lost Kodi Justice for the season in their loss to Stanford, but have backcourt depth and Oregon State's pressure is lessened when on the road. Arizona State ranks 52nd in the country in 3-point shooting. The Sun Devils don't figure to miss 17 of 21 shots from 3-point range like they did in the first meeting against Oregon State.
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01-27-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Miami Heat -3.5 |
Top |
109-102 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
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The Heat have been playing tremendous defense, are home and have double-revenge motivation going here. Miami has held nine of its last 10 foes under 100 points, including the past five. The Heat are off an impressive and confidence-boosting 96-84 road win against the Bulls two days ago. While Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games, Milwaukee has dropped three of its last four and is playing for the third time in four days. The Bucks have won both meetings against Miami this season. The Heat, though, have found a center now - Hassan Whiteside. He scored 14 points, pulled down 13 rebounds and blocked a franchise-record 12 shots against the Bulls. The Heat are healthy with Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng all in the lineup, now fortified with the emerging Whiteside, who has averaged 12.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and four blocks in his last nine games. Sparked by Whiteside, the Hat have held 10 of their last 12 foes below their season scoring average. The Bucks can't counter this star power and are without their best shot-blocker, suspended Larry Sanders.
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01-25-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns +3 |
Top |
120-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
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The Clippers have the superstars, but that doesn't mean they are better than the Suns when playing in Phoenix. Los Angeles has won three in a row. Those victories those were against below .500 teams the Nets, Celtics and Kings. Phoenix has gone 14-5 since switching its lineup. The Suns were in a position to win the other five games during this span during the final minute. Their last non-competitive loss was back on Dec. 14. Since Dec. 17, the Suns have the third-best record in the NBA behind only the Warriors and Hawks. The Suns' trio of outstanding guards - Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas - can cause a lot of problems for the depth-shy Clippers. Phoenix has broken the 100-point barrier in all but one of its last 17 games. The Suns nearly upset the Clippers in LA during their previous meeting blowing a four-point lead with 34 seconds left in a 121-120 overtime loss while missing Thomas.
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01-24-15 |
Kansas v. Texas -3 |
Top |
75-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
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Kansas has a matchup problem against Texas and it's made worse when the Jayhawks play the Longhorns on the road. Kansas has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away matchups and lost 81-69 at Texas last season. Only Kentucky has a higher shot blocking percentage than Texas. Kansas lost 72-40 to the Wildcats earlier this season. The Longhorns also rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and are third in field-goal percentage defense. The Longhorns start 6-foot-8 Jonathan Holmes, 6-9 Connor Lammert and 6-9 Cameron Ridley. They also have 6-11 freshman Myles Turner playing more than half the team’s minutes off the bench. He could be the most talented player on Texas' roster. All of this creates a huge problem for the smaller Jayhawks. Only 12 teams out of 351 have had more shots blocked than Kansas, according to research compiled by KenPom.com. The Jayhawks also rank 263rd in two-pointers, the lowest figure during Bill Self's 12 years at Kansas. So getting shots rejected and scoring easy buckets is a huge problem for Kansas and it's made far worse in this matchup. Kansas doesn't figure to get easy looks at the basket as the Longhorns rank 28th in percentage of close shots allowed. The Jayhawks aren't going to get many calls either being on the road so they don't figure to be helped at the free throw line.
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01-23-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 |
Top |
100-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
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Denver had started to show signs of life earlier this month, but have lost four in a row. Three of those defeats came to the Mavericks, Warriors and Spurs, though. Now the Nuggets step way down in class in a circle-the-wagons game for them. Denver has been idle the past two days and gets back sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari. He had missed the last 15 games with a knee injury. Gallinari can take some of the perimeter pressure off Arron Afflalo. The Nuggets are making just 40.8 percent of their shots from the field during their losing streak and 33 percent from the 3-point line. They also are hitting just 66.3 percent from the free-throw line. Gallinari should help turn around those low marks. The Celtics just ended a 24-game road losing streak to Western Conference foes by nipping injury-plagued Portland, 90-89, last night on a 3-pointer by Evan Turner with one second left. This puts the Celtics, who dealt away point guard Rajon Rondo and leading scorer Jeff Green, in a letdown spot lacking the offense to stay with Denver. Not only are the Celtics playing without rest, but they are entering a new time zone and playing in high altitude. They have a bad track record in Denver having lost the past five times there while failing to cover eight of the last 10 times, including losing by 31 points last season at Pepsi Center. I like the Nuggets even if Kenneth Faried can't play. He missed Thursday's practice with flulike symptoms.
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01-23-15 |
Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 |
|
113-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
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The Rockets lost a lot of their swagger and confidence after suffering recent blowout losses to Golden State. Now they face the hot Suns on the road, a team they do not match up against well at all.
The Suns are going for their seventh consecutive home win. They have not played a bad game in nearly a month going 14-4 during their last 18 games with two of those defeats coming on the road in overtime to Oklahoma City and Memphis.
Houston is 3-5 in its last eight road contests. The Rockets catch a rested and relaxed Suns squad that has been home for 10 days. Phoenix is averaging 112.5 points in its last four home contests. The Suns rank No. 3 in steals and turnovers forced led by their star guard trio of Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas.
Houston's defense has slipped and the Rockets have trouble handling the ball ranking second to last in turnovers and number of steals allowed.
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01-22-15 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Los Angeles Clippers -11.5 |
|
84-123 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 54 m |
Show
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The Nets don't have the offense to hang with the Clippers and are fat and happy after holding off Sacramento last night to open their West Coast trip with a victory. They have a far more winnable road game against the Jazz on Saturday. The Clippers, unlike the Nets who are without Deron Williams, are healthy and their stars are in their prime. The Clippers rank in the top four in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Brooklyn is averaging just 92 points during its last 10 games going 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS. The Nets are averaging 11 points fewer per game than the Clippers. The Clippers are giving up less than 99 points per game at home. They have defeated the Nets nine of the last 10 times at Staples Center, including the past three. LA also is 6-3 ATS hosting below .500 Eastern Conference opponents. The Nets beat the Kings in large part because of a strong performance from center Brook Lopez, who scored 22 points and had six blocks. Lopez figures to struggle, though, matched against DeAndre Jordan, who is having a monster season leading the NBA in rebounding and field goal percentage while ranking second in blocks. Another key for the Clippers is focus. They should have it since they last played on Monday and won't play again until Sunday.
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01-22-15 |
UCLA v. Oregon State -1.5 |
Top |
55-66 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 15 m |
Show
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Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups. UCLA gets much of its scoring from its guards. However, Oregon State has a pair of tremendous defensive guards in Gary Payton II, who ranks second in the nation in steals, and Malcolm Duvivier. The Beavers rank first in the Pac-12 in 3-point defense. Only Arizona has a better defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 than Oregon State, which upset the Wildcats at home on Jan. 11. The Bruins have just an eight-man rotation and that may be reduced as center Tony Parker is a game-time decision because of back spasms. UCLA figures to be rusty having been idle since Jan. 14. The Bruins have failed to cover 10 of the last 13 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS the last seven times they've hosted a foe with a losing road mark.
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01-21-15 |
Indiana State +13 v. Northern Iowa |
|
60-66 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
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Northern Iowa is giving up too many points here. Indiana State has won and covered in five of its last six games. The Sycamores also lead the Missouri Valley Conference in field goal percentage.
The pace is going to be slow here with points a struggle to come by. That also is a plus for an underdog of this many points.
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 22 of the past 29 times. The Sycamores also have covered in five of their last seven visits to Northern Iowa.
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01-20-15 |
San Antonio Spurs -7 v. Denver Nuggets |
Top |
109-99 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
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San Antonio is starting to make its move with Kawhi Leonard back healthy. The Spurs have won five of their last six, including three in a row. Leonard helped the Spurs win their last two games - 110-96 over Portland and 89-69 over Utah. San Antonio has tightened its defense allowing just 91.1 points per game during its last six matchups. There is some urgency with the Spurs as they are in seventh place in the Western Conference. No coach is better with time to prepare than Gregg Popovich. The Spurs were one of the few teams that did not play on Monday. Denver is playing for the fourth time in the last five days. The Nuggets played yesterday and were blown out on the road at Golden State, 122-79. They probably will play hard following that humiliation, but they are not playing well with three straight losses and have yet to settle on a rotation. Brian Shaw, in my view, is in way over his head as a head coach giving San Antonio a coaching edge of massive proportions.
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01-19-15 |
Detroit Pistons +8.5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
82-93 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
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Detroit and Atlanta have been two play-on teams. But the spot and line value clearly favor the Pistons in this matchup. The Pistons catch the Hawks in action for the fifth time in seven days and returning home for this holiday matchup after a hugely successful four-game road trip where they defeated the 76ers, Celtics, Raptors and Bulls. The Hawks are playing outstanding, but so is Detroit. The Pistons have won 11 of their last 13 games going 10-3 ATS. One of those defeats came at home, 106-103, to the Hawks 10 days ago. That was the first time the Pistons lost since getting rid of Josh Smith. The Pistons have won and covered their last seven road games, posting victories against the Spurs, Mavericks and Raptors during this span. Detroit can hang tight with Atlanta on the road especially given the Hawks' fatigue and situational disadvantages.
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01-18-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 |
Top |
7-45 |
Win
|
105 |
151 h 56 m |
Show
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Andrew Luck doesn't have enough of a supporting cast to pull off a second major road upset. The Patriots are 49-7 (87%) in their last 56 home games. New England also is 17-4 ATS the past 21 times when laying single-digits at Gillette Stadium. The Ravens were a tough matchup against the Patriots because their strengths matched up against New England's weaknesses. That's not the case here. The Patriots can be run on and they aren't a great pass blocking team. But the Colts lack talent at running back and don't have any outstanding pass rushers. Indy also doesn't have the Ravens' past success and confidence in facing New England. The Patriots have played and hosted the Colts three times during the last three years, which has been during the Chuck Pagano/Luck era. New England has won these games by 25, 21 and 22 points this season in a 42-20 victory on Nov. 16. Luck has been picked off eight times in these games. Tom Brady is far more accurate than Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton. The Patriots are averaging 40.8 points in their last five meaningful games. They should be good for at least 30 in this one. New England's defense should be able to find its form against a Colts offense that lacks a ground attack and is fielding a makeshift offensive line that has been through 11 difference combinations with only one lineman starting every game.
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01-18-15 |
Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 |
Top |
22-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
148 h 39 m |
Show
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Seattle has the NFL's best defense in nearly 30 years. There is no way the Packers can dent it with Aaron Rodgers on one leg and playing at CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are 25-2 SU, 19-7-1 ATS the past three years. The Seahawks are the hottest team in football playing their best ball with seven consecutive victories and covers. Each win has been by 10 or more points. The Packers' defense is average at best versus the run and doesn't generate much of a pass rush. The Seahawks can beat Green Bay with Marshawn Lynch on the ground and with Russell Wilson's mobility and decision-making. Green Bay has problems with option-type quarterbacks and hasn't been good on the road. They lost 36-16 to the Seahawks, 19-7 to the Lions and 21-13 to the Bills when they played the three toughest defenses on the road. They also scored only 20 points on the road against two-win Tampa Bay, fell by 21 to the Saints in New Orleans and needed a touchdown with three seconds left to win in Miami. Green Bay has a losing ATS road mark and averages 21 points away from home compared to averaging 39.7 points during the regulation season at Lambeau Field.
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01-17-15 |
Washington Wizards -4 v. Brooklyn Nets |
Top |
99-90 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 41 m |
Show
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Revenge can be overrated in the NBA. Not here. The Wizards were embarrassed 102-80 at home last night by Eastern Conference rival Brooklyn. Now Washington can do something right away about it as this is a back-to-back home-road series. The Wizards were ripe for a letdown last night having posted impressive victories this week against the Spurs and Bulls. The Nets entered last night's matchup on a seven-game losing streak with trade rumors swirling around several of their players. But the Nets played well, particularly Brook Lopez, and the Wizards had their poorest game of the season. Sensing his team lacked the necessary energy - which happens during the course of the long NBA season - Wizards coach Randy Wittman pulled his starters early. Only John Wall logged more than 26 minutes. He played 31 minutes. I'm expecting a monster effort from the Wizards, who are the more rested team with the superior talent and stronger bench especially with Deron Williams out for the Nets. Washington's key players are in their prime. Brooklyn's top players are past their prime. Normally the Nets wouldn't be able to match the Wizards' physical play and up-tempo pace. I don't see them doing it twice in a row especially off such a satisfying victory and considering how bad they've been playing with a 2-7 ATS mark in their last nine games. Marcin Gortat is much better than he looked Friday. He should be able to clamp down on the slow-footed Lopez.
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01-17-15 |
Michigan State +3 v. Maryland |
Top |
59-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
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Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier. The Spartans also have revenge from a 68-66 home overtime loss to the Terrapins on Dec. 30 when they shot only 32.3 percent from the field. I'd take Tom Izzo over any coach when it comes to same-season conference revenge. Izzo's record stands 30-11 SU and 28-12-1 ATS the past 41 times in these instances. The Spartans have beaten the spread by an average of more than four points per game during this span. The Spartans were out-rebounded in the first meeting, which negated them committing eight fewer turnovers than Maryland. The Spartans are the superior rebounding team so that shouldn't happen again. Michigan State also has proven itself on the road against top competition covering 13 of the past 19 times when taking on a foe with a winning home record. Maryland is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home contests.
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01-16-15 |
Denver Nuggets +8 v. Dallas Mavericks |
Top |
89-97 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
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A revenge spot for Dallas has the oddsmaker opening this game way too high. The Mavericks sat out Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Rajon Rondo when they met the Nuggets at Pepsi Center two nights ago. The Nuggets won, 114-107. Those three stars are all slated to be in Dallas' lineup tonight. But it's not a given the Mavericks are going to easily defeat the Nuggets, who are playing their finest ball of the season with five straight victories. The Nuggets are averaging 109.8 points per game on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during their winning streak. Denver has defeated Dallas in six of the last eight meetings. The Nuggets outrebounded the Mavericks by 12 this past Wednesday. Chandler being back makes a difference. He's the third-leading rebounder in the league. But the Nuggets still will be active on the boards thanks to Kenneth Faried, who had 22 points and 14 rebounds versus Dallas two nights ago. Only 11 players average more rebounds per game than Faried. The Nuggets were short-handed at point guard when they beat Dallas. That won't be the case tonight as they have former Maverick Jameer Nelson to back up Ty Lawson, who played huge on Wednesday with 29 points and 12 assists. Nelson knows the Mavericks well having started the first 23 games for them this season. His knowledge should come in handy. Dallas has covered just one of its last 12 games versus Western Conference opponents. The Mavericks also have a much better spread record on the road than at home where they have failed to cover nine of the past 12 times.
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01-15-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
Top |
109-102 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 3 m |
Show
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Enough is enough. Now that LeBron James is back in the lineup and taking on the league's second-worst defense expect the Cavaliers to end their six-game losing streak with a resounding victory over the Lakers. The Lakers are surrendering 106.8 points per game and have matchup problems all over the court starting with James, who hit 11 of 18 shots from the field while scoring 33 points against the Suns two nights ago. James didn't look rusty at all after missing the previous eight games with a sore knee. Los Angeles' point guards Ronnie Price and Jeremy Lin are going to have problems handling Kyrie Irving and Cleveland newcomer Timofey Mozgov has hurt the Lakers' in the past with his inside presence. It's going to be difficult for the Lakers to keep pace with Cleveland's scoring as their two main scorers, Kobe Bryant and Nick Young, are in shooting slumps. Bryant is at the end of a Hall of Fame career. The Lakers play better without him and his atrocious less than 37 percent shooting percentage, ball-hog ways. The Cavaliers are going to treat this game with a great deal of urgency being under .500 now and having dropped nine of their last 10.
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01-15-15 |
Oregon State v. Washington -6 |
Top |
43-56 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
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This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona. That was Oregon State's biggest win in 15 years and puts the Beavers in a huge letdown spot. The Beavers' talent level still is way down. Washington, though, certainly won't be looking down at the Beavers desperately needing a victory and knowing Oregon State is capable of knocking off a top Pac-12 team. Oregon State has lost to the Huskies during each of its last 11 visits to Seattle. That string should definitely continue here. Washington holds a strong backcourt edge with point guard Nigel Williams. The Huskies have three guards who average in double figures and also hold a strong frontcourt edge behind center Robert Upshaw. The Beavers lack a true point guard and haven't really faced an opponent with as much depth in the frontcourt as Washington has with its strong shot-blocking and rebounding abilities.
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