08-28-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Jacksonville Jaguars -1 |
Top |
22-17 |
Loss |
-120 |
45 h 19 m |
Show
|
Motivation is a big key during preseason. The Jaguars have it for this matchup. The Lions don't. Lions coach Jim Caldwell has lost 12 of 18 preseason games. Winning meaningless exhibition games isn't a priority for him. Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 passes in Detroit's first two preseason games. I doubt he plays for too long, especially with the Lions breaking in a new right guard. Calvin Johnson isn't expected to play. This is Jacksonville's final preseason home contest. The game is being televised nationally by CBS. Jaguars coach Gus Bradley and Jacksonville management has different priorities than the Lions. They want to build up sagging fan interest and gain needed confidence. Bradley hasn't pulled Blake Bortles until late in the second quarter. Bradley is likely to use Bortles and his starters well into the second half in order to prepare for the season and appease the home fans while trying to look good on national TV. Jacksonville's offense and defense has played well at times during preseason. The Lions obviously are the better team, but they don't have great depth and lack the home team's motivation. Bortles is much better than Detroit's backup quarterbacks.
|
08-20-15 |
Washington Nationals -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 6 m |
Show
|
The Nationals are getting well and their confidence up against the Rockies, losers of eight of their last nine games. Every one of the Rockies' losses during this span have been by at least two runs. Washington has won the first two games of this series by an average of six runs and now has its best pitcher going, Max Scherzer. The Nationals are 8-3 the past 11 times Scherzer has been a road favorite. Scherzer's road ERA this season is 2.41. The Rockies are going with a bottom of rotation guy, Yohan Flande, who has a 4.19 ERA and owns a 5.87 lifetime ERA against the Nationals in three starts. Colorado may have the worst bullpen in the majors and Flande hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in a game all season. Colorado is 2-9 the last 11 times Flande has been an underdog. The Nationals' last five victories have been by an average of 5.4 runs. Simply put, this is a kill spot for the Nationals.
|
08-14-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Houston Astros -1.5 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
Dallas Keuchel is 10-0 with a 1.26 ERA at home. Every one of his victories have been by more than one run. The Astros' average win this season during Keuchel's home starts is by 3.6 runs. On the flip side, the Tigers have to go with Alfredo Simon, who has given up at least four earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He hasn't been effective in two months now.
|
08-14-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Jacksonville Jaguars |
Top |
21-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 11 m |
Show
|
Not only do the Steelers have the advantage of having played one game already this preseason, but Mike Tomlin wants to win this matchup after Pittsburgh lost 14-3 to the Vikings during the Hall of Fame Game this past Sunday. Tomlin held out his offensive stars against the Vikings, but Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Maurkice Pouncey and Heath Miller are all going to play against the Jaguars. Backup Pittsburgh quarterback Landry Jones should show better, too, after playing the entire Hall of Fame game. The Steelers have had more time to get into place their system and schemes thanks to having played in the Hall of Fame game. They won't be so vanilla. Jacksonville is 2-6 in preseason during the Gus Bradley era. The Jaguars lack depth to do well in preseason. That's the situation again with the Jaguars, especially in their defensive line where they already are dealing with an abundance of injuries. If there was a plus to the Steelers' first preseason game it was the play of their defense, which has gotten considerably younger but now plays faster. The Steelers held the Vikings to an average of three yards per run and stopped them on 10 of 13 third downs. One of the Jacksonville's priorities is to find a ground game, something it has failed to accomplish during Bradley's coaching tenure. Rookie TJ Yeldon may be the Jaguars' best runner and he might get held out of this game because of a sprained finger. There is no reason for the Jaguars to risk Yeldon and quarterback Blake Bortles in this their first preseason game.
|
08-13-15 |
Miami Dolphins v. Chicago Bears |
Top |
10-27 |
Win
|
100 |
65 h 18 m |
Show
|
The Bears are home, have the better backup skill position players and a better coaching staff than the Dolphins. New coach John Fox is anxious to get the Bears pointed in the right direction after last season's disaster under Marc Trestman. Fox brings an all-star collection of assistant coaches with him - offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. I'm not a fan of Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. The Dolphins are experiencing offensive line problems and have nothing to prove here. The Bears do. Chicago also has the better second-stringers at the skill position spots Jay Cutler is expected to play a little and he should be fired-up to show the new coaching staff that he can be counted on. Backing up Cutler is veteran Jimmy Clausen, David Fales and Shane Carden, who the Bears like a lot. Ka'Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford are underrated backup running backs to Matt Forte.
|
08-12-15 |
Washington Nationals +1.5 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-126 |
11 h 20 m |
Show
|
As great as Clayton Kershaw is, the Dodgers are just 12-10 in his starts this season. If you give the opponent 1 1/2 runs, the Dodgers are 11-11 with Kershaw on the mound. Runs are going to be extremely hard to come by in this matchup so asking the Dodgers - the home team - to win by more than one run is a tall order. The left-handed Kershaw wasn't sharp in his previous outing against Pittsburgh. The Nationals' key right-handed bats are all hot right now with Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Jayson Werth picking up their games. They can cause problems for Kershaw. It's an added plus for Washington if Bryce Harper returns to the lineup today as expected. If Kershaw can't reach the ninth inning the Dodgers are extremely vulnerable as their setup relievers have not been good. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the better pitchers in the NL and has been for the last several seasons. Washington has won 67 percent of Zimmerman's last 104 starts. Zimmerman has a 2.51 ERA in his last three stars against the Dodgers, who have lost six of the past seven times they've faced Zimmerman.
|
08-09-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Minnesota Vikings -2.5 |
Top |
3-14 |
Win
|
100 |
143 h 8 m |
Show
|
Different motivations for these two teams. The Vikings and their pugnacious coach, Mike Zimmer, want to keep proving themselves. Zimmer is stressing winning early even talking Super Bowl. That talk is crazy, but the Vikings are improved and Zimmer wants to establish a winning mindset early. So I see the justification in Minnesota being favored. The Steelers returned to the playoffs last season. Their early-season priorities are different than Minnesota's. Mike Tomlin wants to find out who his main running backs are going to be with Le'Veon Bell suspended for the first two games. Pittsburgh is undergoing massive defensive changes, too, while the Vikings are in the second year of Zimmer's defensive scheme. Long-time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau no longer is with the Steelers. The Steelers are transitioning to youth on defense and will be going through growing pains early. Backup quarterbacks are huge when getting involved in preseason and the Vikings own the edge there with veteran second-stringer Shaun Hill, one of the best backups in the league.
|
07-25-15 |
Atlanta Braves +1.5 v. St. Louis Cardinals |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Braves certainly can hang here - especially getting 1 1/2 runs. The oddsmaker believe so, too, with this low total. Carlos Martinez is off his normal routine having last pitched in relief during an emergency situation. Miller, meanwhile, has been strong nearly the entire season. If you discount his start at Coors Field, he's allowed more than one earned run twice since the start of June.
|
07-23-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 v. New York Mets |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
Clayton Kershaw is showing serious signs of matching last year's out-of-this-world pitching numbers. The 27-year-old still is in his absolute prime. He's only given up two earned runs with 43 strikeouts during his last four starts spanning 31 innings. Kershaw is enjoying the best strikeout rate of his career with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate. He hasn't surrendered a home run in his last four games. The Mets are in the argument for weakest offense in the majors. They rank last in batting average, second-to-last in OPS and third-from-the-bottom in runs. Making this such a strong run line play is the Dodgers offense should do plenty of damage against Mets starter Bartolo Colon and a Mets bullpen that has fatigue issues. The 42-year-old Colon pitches his best early in the season before he begins to wear down, which is the case now. Colon has yielded 21 runs on 37 hits during his last four starts - all losses - spanning 20 2/3 innings. Colon doesn't have a good history versus the Dodgers either. The righty has a 2-4 lifetime mark with a 6.03 ERA. The Dodgers trail only Colorado in slugging percentage against right-handers.
|
07-13-15 |
Toronto Argonauts v. Calgary Stampeders -7 |
Top |
20-25 |
Loss |
-115 |
28 h 11 m |
Show
|
The defending Grey Cup champion Stampeders have not looked good during their first two games. Their lackluster play caught up to them last week as they were upset by Montreal as a 9 1/2-point road favorite. Toronto, on the other hand, is riding high posting upset victories against Edmonton and Saskatchewan. Expect things to get back into a natural order with this matchup. Toronto is off an emotional overtime victory and on the road a third straight week. The Argonauts are stepping up in class. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory. Bo Levi Mitchell and Calgary's offense are out of the gates slow. But the Stampeders have proven offensive talent, which should pick up now that Mitchell has gotten some of the kinks out and will have speedy wide receiver Jeff Fuller back. Toronto fill-in quarterback Trevor Harris has been playing well above his head. Expect him to come back down to Earth. The Stampeders have covered eight of the last nine times they've played a foe with a winning mark and are 23-7 (77%) ATS in their last 30 games following a loss so they have a good history in these type of spots.
|
07-10-15 |
Montreal Alouettes v. Winnipeg Blue Bombers -3.5 |
Top |
23-25 |
Loss |
-105 |
31 h 1 m |
Show
|
Rookie quarterback Rakeem Cato stepped up big last week to spark Montreal to a 29-11 upset win over Calgary, the defending Grey Cup champions. That win came at home and the Alouettes caught the Stampeders in a flat spot. Now Montreal is in the flat spot and on the road, too. Winnipeg isn't going to take Montreal lightly like Calgary did. The Blue Bombers are off an embarrassing loss to the Tiger-Cats. The line isn't that high because Blue Bombers quarterback Drew Willy Cato got banged-up last week. He's expected to be fine this week, though. Montreal's defense has been tough the first two weeks but I'm not sold on it. Winnipeg has some dangerous skill position players that I see the Alouettes having problems covering. Note, too, that Montreal is 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Winnipeg and has failed to cover the past four times overall when playing the Blue Bombers.
|
07-08-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 42 m |
Show
|
The won/lost record is skewed by bad run support, but Clayton Kershaw not initially being picked to the NL All-Star team is a joke. Kershaw is going to be pitching against the Phillies, the worst team in the majors, with a chip on his shoulder. And the Dodgers won't be taking the Phillies lightly after losing, 7-2, to them last night. If ever there was a kill spot in baseball this is it. The Phillies are 11-32 on the road, worst in the majors. They are 1-14-1 in their last 16 away series. The Dodgers have won 68 percent of their last 59 home games going 40-19. Philadelphia has lost 41 games by more than one run. There are 10 teams who haven't lost 41 games all season. Kershaw still is the best pitcher in baseball. The three-time Cy Young Award winner leads the NL in strikeouts with 147 and has his highest career strikeout-per-nine inning ratio at 11.6. His walks per nine innings are down from his career average of 2.7 and his FIP, a metric that determines the quality of a pitching performance, is No. 2 in the National League. The southpaw has dominated the Phillies with a 1.73 ERA against them in his last six starts. Philadelphia has lost seven of the past nine times facing a lefty. The Phillies are starting rookie Adam Morgan, who has a 2.13 ERA in his first two starts. Expect a huge regression from Morgan as the league sees more of him. Morgan was 13-28 in 69 minor league games with a 3.53 ERA.
|
07-07-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 |
|
7-2 |
Loss |
-119 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
I can't see this game being close. The Phillies have the worst road record in baseball and have a huge pitching disadvantage here. They are demoralized having lost seven of their last eight. Brett Anderson is having a huge comeback season. He's always had the talent, but has been held back due to injuries. Now he's healthy. He has a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two games - road wins against the Marlins and Diamondbacks - and is the top groundball pitcher in baseball. The weak-hitting Phillies are unfamiliar with Anderson, which is to their disadvantage. Only Ben Revere has faced Anderson. The Dodgers should jump all over Phillies starter Chad Billingsley and a battered Philadelphia bullpen. Billingsley has been beset with injury problems and struggled in the minors with a 4.85 ERA. Billingsley is a righty. The Dodgers lead the majors in OPS versus righties. Billingsley has made four starts this season. Opposing hitters are batting .363 against him. However, the Phillies are desperate for pitching after Sean O'Sullivan proved unworthy of holding a rotation spot.
|
06-30-15 |
Colorado Rockies +1.5 v. Oakland A's |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
Value play here as Oakland isn't good enough this season to lay this big price against a team's No. 1 pitcher. Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa is 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in three road starts this season. The Rockies are 47-20 in his last 67 starts against under .500 opponents. De La Rosa is a southpaw and Oakland has lost 12 of its past 16 home games versus a lefty. Oakland is such a big favorite because Sonny Gray is pitching. The Rockies, though, have plenty of firepower and Gray hasn't been dominant during his last two starts allowing nine runs in 12 innings.
|
06-14-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors |
Top |
91-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 8 m |
Show
|
There is too much value to overlook here on the Cavaliers. The Warriors took advantage of Cleveland's tired legs to blow out the Cavaliers in Game 4. But the Cavaliers will be fresher in this matchup with two days of rest instead of one. Cleveland is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. If you throw out Game 4, Cleveland would be 17-0 ATS in the playoffs taking this many points. The Cavaliers also are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover. The Cavaliers are going to shoot better than 33 percent from the floor, which they did in Game 4 while missing 23 of 27 shots from beyond the arc. LeBron James missed 15 of 22 shots from the field. If it weren't for their bad shooting, the Cavaliers were right there with the Warriors in Game 4 outrebounding them and committing fewer than 10 turnovers. James and Co. won't be intimidated playing at Oracle Arena either. They are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in the playoffs on the road. One of those losses and non-point spread covers came in Game 1 at Oracle when the Cavaliers lost by eight in overtime. Golden State has failed to cover 10 of its last 15 home contests and haven't been overly impressive in the playoffs. Prop Recommendation: I would play against Andre Iguodala going under his point total and any prop that features his combined points, rebounds and assists. Iguodala is getting a lot of attention because of his 22-point game in Game 4. But he played more than 39 minutes, which is three minutes more than he's played in any of the other nine previous playoff games Golden State has played in. Iguodala averaged just 7.8 points per game during the regular season. Prior to Game 4, he was averaging nine points per game during Golden State's previous nine playoff games. Iguodala is defensive-minded. He's a good all-around player, but shooting is not his strength. He just happen to have a lucky scoring night in Game 4.
|
06-07-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -6.5 |
Top |
95-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
61 h 47 m |
Show
|
It's hard to envision the Cavaliers playing much better than they did during the first 48 minutes of Game 1 - and that was before Kyrie Irving suffered a knee injury in overtime. Despite their efforts, the Cavaliers not only failed to win Game 1, but couldn't cover the 5 1/2-to-6 point spread. By contrast, the Warriors didn't bring their "A" game this past Thursday. They came out tight. Perhaps it was a case of nerves following the long layoff. The Warriors missed 16 of 31 inside shots during regulation. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Warriors now in Game 2. Golden State is 20-5-1 ATS the past 26 times when playing on two days rest. On the flip side, I doubt that the Cavaliers can play as well as they did during regulation this past Thursday. That's especially the case with Irving out. Cleveland was plus five points when Irving was on the court and minus 13 when he was on the bench. As great as he is, LeBron James can't do it alone and Golden State's bench is far superior to Cleveland's. The Warriors proved that in Game 1. The Warriors have been strong money-makers in this role going 21-8-2 during their past 31 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.
|
06-06-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-138 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball - when he doesn't face the Cardinals. The Dodgers are 6-11 against St. Louis the last 17 times Kershaw has gone against the Cardinals. Kershaw isn't having his typical dominant season either so far with a 4-3 record and 3.73 ERA. He has a 5.69 ERA in his last eight games against the Cardinals. The Dodgers have key injuries on offense and have scored three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 20 games. LA would be 2-8 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia has been held back because of injuries not lack of talent. The lefty has been strong in three starts since coming off the DL posting a 2.70 ERA. Note, too, that the Dodgers' OPS versus southpaws is .693 compared to .806 against righties.
|
06-04-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 |
Top |
100-108 |
Win
|
100 |
162 h 44 m |
Show
|
Golden State has been minus 9 1/2, or higher, in each of its eight home playoff games versus the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets. The last time the Warriors were this low of a home favorite was Jan. 5. The Warriors have lost only three times at home all season in 49 games at Oracle Arena. I believe Golden State is the better team - with an emphasis on team - and the point spread is more than fair. The Warriors have played the tougher competition being in the West, have the superior coach, possess better 3-point shooters and are better defensively. Golden State is ready to win the championship. The Warriors have been together the last couple of seasons as they've paid their playoff dues. Their chemistry and togetherness are major keys. An example of this is the Warriors led the NBA in assists per possession and are No. 1 in that category so far during the playoffs. The Cavaliers were just put together this season. Kevin Love is out. Kyrie Irving isn't 100 percent. His defense can be exploited. Cleveland relies so heavily upon LeBron James. Granted, James is the best player in the world. But the Warriors can guard James as well - if not better - than any team in the NBA with a combination of Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson. Green is a top defender and one of the most underrated players in the league. The Warriors should win the rest of the matchups particularly in the backcourt with their own superstar, Stephen Curry, and Thompson. The Cavaliers are more 1-on-1 oriented than the Warriors because of their heavy reliance on James. Green and the tight Warriors defense won't allow James to dominate inside by backing them down. As great as James is, he's still only 12-for-68 from 3-point range during the playoffs for 17 percent. Cleveland can get away with that versus Eastern Conference foes, including a battered Hawks team that relied heavily on reserves and didn't measure up. But the Cavaliers can't get away with this on the road versus the best of the west. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in five of their last six visits to Golden State.
|
05-24-15 |
Atlanta Hawks +9.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
111-114 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 45 m |
Show
|
I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Hawks can keep things close in this matchup. If the Hawks are going to win a game in this series this is their spot. Atlanta is in desperate straits down 0-2 with both losses coming at home. The Cavaliers can't help but feel overconfident. This is a letdown for them spot up 2-0 and returning home after burying the Hawks by 12 points two nights ago. The Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times they've played on one day's rest. The Cavaliers might elect to hold out Kyrie Irving. Even if the hobbled Irving plays, he'll be wearing a knee brace as he deals with aggravated tendinitis. DeMarre Carroll isn't at 100 percent either for Atlanta and Kyle Korver is out with a sprained ankle. The Hawks' bench, though, is decent and received a lot of work during the latter part of the season. Korver was having a disappointing postseason. The Hawks are just 10-for-49 (20.4 percent) from 3-point range in this series. So Korver wasn't a big help. Atlanta is a much better shooting team than that. Yes, the Hawks don't have anyone near the caliber of LeBron James. But they are a skilled and clever team that - up to this point - always had been relentless and prideful. I believe those season-long traits have not completely disappeared. Atlanta has covered seven of the past eight times following a double-digit loss. They also are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 away matchups versus opponents with a winning home mark.
|
05-23-15 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians -1.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
|
The Reds are in trouble whenever Johnny Cueto isn't on the mound and when they have to turn to anyone in their bullpen not named Arolidis Chapman. Reds relievers have a combined 5.89 ERA this season, not including dominant closer Chapman.
The Reds' bullpen is likely to get into play early here as Cincinnati starter Anthony DeSlafini is averaging less than five innings during his past five starts, four of which he's lost.
Cleveland has won four in a row and Corey Kluber is back in ace form giving one run and striking out 30 during his past two starts.
Cincinnati has been terrible in interleague losing 10 of its last 11, including the past five.
|
05-19-15 |
Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 |
Top |
106-110 |
Loss |
-109 |
28 h 51 m |
Show
|
Not only are the Warriors far superior to the Rockets, but the situation sets up well for them. Golden State last played on Friday, while the Rockets exerted all of their energy in capturing their series against the Clippers after being down 3-1 clinching this past Sunday. Certainly I give the Rockets credit for not quitting against the Clippers being down 19 points in the second half on the road in Game 6. But I attribute this more to an epic choke job by LA. I didn't see a lot of defense from Houston. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Clippers' reserves playing terrible during much of the last four games. The Rockets aren't polished and lack the Warriors' precision and defense. Houston also can't come close to matching up against Golden State's backcourt tandem of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Rockets really are going to miss underrated point guard Patrick Beverley, particularly his defense, in this series. Golden State won and covered all four meetings during the regular season against the Rockets with Curry and Thompson combining to average better than 47 points per game while shooting 50 percent from the field. The point spread may seem high, but the Warriors won 55 percent of their games this season by double-digits. They covered 59 percent of the time when laying 10 or more points. The Rockets have lost 18 times by 10 or more points. The Rockets are 5-4 during their last nine playoff games. Each of those four defeats came by double-digits with their average losing margin being by 21.5 points a game.
|
05-13-15 |
Washington Wizards +8 v. Atlanta Hawks |
Top |
81-82 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 48 m |
Show
|
Atlanta played one its best game of the playoffs in Game 4 defeating the Wizards on the road, 106-101, two nights ago. The Hawks shot a series-high 47.1 percent from the floor and sank 9-of-19 3-point shots. Yet the Wizards - who didn't play up to their full capabilities and were minus John Wall - were within an open 3-point jumper by the normally clutch Paul Pierce of tying the game with seven seconds left. Now the scene shifts to Atlanta. The Hawks have yet to produce an "A" game for 48 minutes. They've played well in spurts. But lost their mojo down the stretch of the regular season when Mike Budenholzer was resting players. They have yet to rediscover their early-season dominance. The playoffs are about superstars. The Hawks have good players. Not superstars. The Wizards are at their most dangerous on the road in the playoffs. During the past two seasons, Washington is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS away from Verizon Center in the playoffs. They are 5-0 with Wall during the post-season. Wall has a broken non-shooting hand, but could play. He's a game-time decision. I like the Wizards here even if Wall doesn't play. Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Wizards have covered in five of their last six road contests. The Hawks couldn't put the Wizards away in Game 4 when they stepped up their game - scoring just one basket during the final 3:30 and that was on a 3-pointer by Teague as the 24-second clock was expiring because he couldn't find a higher-percentage scoring option before time ran out. I expect the Wizards to perform better. It's an extra bonus if Wall plays. Even if the Hawks continue to play well in spurts - which isn't a given - they still haven't shown enough to close out the Wizards and cover this large of a number. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Wizards lost by more than eight points.
|
05-12-15 |
Chicago Bulls +5.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
101-106 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
The last two games have been decided on final shots. These teams are very close. It's a huge plus if Pau Gasol can play. But even if he can't, I like taking this many points with Chicago. The Bulls are better coached, have a deeper bench and the Cavaliers are minus Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving is severely limited by foot and knee injuries. Irving has missed 18 of 23 shots from the floor during the last two games. Cleveland is just 2-8 ATS when playing on one day's rest.
|
05-11-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies +5 |
Top |
101-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 35 m |
Show
|
Maybe the oddsmaker considers the Grizzlies beating the Warriors in Game 2 AND Game 3 a fluke. I don't and have the statistics and matchups to back it up. Some people are holding on too much to the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. What is meaningful is the Grizzlies have outscored the Warriors by 19 points during the past nine quarters. Memphis has been ahead for nearly 90 of the 96 minutes during the last two games. Memphis is the more experienced playoff team, has a taller more physical frontcourt and possess backcourt defensive aces to control Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Grizzlies can score inside with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Mike Conley provides backcourt scoring. The Warriors, on the other hand, are in trouble when Curry and Thompson go cold. They don't have the Grizzlies' inside-outside game being a small, jump-shooting team. Memphis scored 14 more points than the Warriors in the paint in Game 3 while owning a 44-39 rebounding edge. The Warriors won't have injured reserve forward Marreese Speights for this game either. Bothered by defensive whiz Tony Allen, the Warriors missed 20 of 26 3-point shots in Game 3. The key takeaway here is the Warriors just weren't on a cold spell. The flow and pace were clearly in Memphis' favor. The Warriors aren't nearly as dangerous hitting 3-pointers from half-court sets. They are at their best on the open court off turnovers. Yet they couldn't score one point off a Memphis turnover during the first half of Game 3. The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. They have a very tough home court and are 5-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played, 4-0 at FedEx Forum. Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games. Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. It's clear again the oddsmaker/marketplace is misreading these teams. The Grizzlies are a matchup nightmare for the Warriors - and they are home. This should be a pick'em type of line. Getting points, especially this many, is a generous gift.
|
05-10-15 |
Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
Top |
95-128 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 16 m |
Show
|
Do I have concerns about the Rockets' lack of defense, basketball savvy and mental toughness? Yes. But I also respect the Zig-Zag theory and the Rockets' star power. The superstars are going to cancel each other out, but I see the Rockets' key secondary players - namely Josh Smith and Trevor Ariza - shooting better while Austin Rivers and J.J. Redick fall back to Earth after playing the games of their life. Smith is 9-for-31 shooting in the series. Ariza has missed 13 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Smith isn't a high percentage shooter, but he has big time talent while Ariza is underrated and normally a much more reliable shooter and defender. Pride and the series are on the line here for the Rockets. Houston is 22-8 ATS following a loss. The Rockets haven't been this big of underdogs in more than 10 weeks. The Rockets are better defensively than they've showed. They ranked sixth in points per possession during the regular season and held Chris Paul to 36.7 percent shooting from the floor during the regular season. Paul isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring aliment. He isn't likely to have the same adrenalin he had in Game 3 when he played for the first time since hitting the game-winning basket in Game 7 versus the Spurs. Neither are the Clippers, who are due for a letdown after taking out the defending champion Spurs in an epic seven-game first round series and blowing out the Rockets at home two days ago by 25 points. Still, the Rockets need to make adjustments. I believe they will plus come out with tremendous intensity. I'm expecting to see Dwight Howard more involved in the offense. Defensively, I expect to see the Rockets go all out to get back on transition while limiting the Clippers' fast-break opportunities. These teams are close to even talent-wise. The Clippers have been the smarter team. But changes and adjustments are coming from Houston. The Rockets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on one day's rest, while the Clippers are 2-8 during their past 10 home games. So perspective needs to be maintained. The Rockets were this big of favorites during the first two games of the series. Now the line is completely reversed. It's way too much of an overreaction.
|
05-09-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies +5 |
Top |
89-99 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 39 m |
Show
|
This isn't the regular season. The Warriors may be the best team in the NBA, but they have to prove it again. I don't see them having an easy run trying to accomplish it. Should we overreact to Mike Conley's dramatic return and Tony Allen's outstanding defense in the Grizzlies' surprising 97-90 Game 2 road upset victory? No, but this spread isn't giving the Grizzlies enough respect. Memphis is strong at FedEx Forum and creates matchup problems for the Warriors. The Grizzlies have a tall, physical frontline. They also have outstanding backcourt defenders who can keep Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in check. Allen has 12 steals in his last three games. Conley is playing great two-way basketball. The Grizzlies are 4-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played. The Grizzlies ranked second in fewest points allowed per game. They tied for the fourth-best home record at 31-10. The Warriors won a league-high 28 road games during the regular season, but went just 14-12 during their last 26 regular season away contests. Golden State is 2-10 in its last 12 games at FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus opponents with a winning record. Based on their record, the Warriors probably deserve to be a road favorite. But not by this much. I see value here with the Grizzlies - and that's the way I'm going.
|
05-06-15 |
Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 |
Top |
91-106 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
Perhaps the Bulls are better than the Cavaliers when Cleveland is minus Kevin Love and J.R. Smith. But I'm willing to lay this spread with a fired-up LeBron James playing at home knowing Cleveland absolutely can't go down 0-2 in this series having played their first two games at Quicken Loans Arena. Chicago played well in Game 1 on Monday. So nothing against the Bulls. But Cleveland is a very good defensive team, especially at home. I don't expect the Bulls to make half of their shots from the floor like they did on Monday, nor for Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose to be as successful in executing pick-and-roll plays. I do expect the Cavaliers to be far less rusty. They had been idle for eight days before meeting the Bulls. I do expect James to shoot much better than of 9-of-22 like he did in Game 1 and to get to the free throw line far more than just twice. James will accomplish this by not settling for so many long jumpers like he did on Monday. He's going to play far more aggressive. He knows all of Tom Thibodeau's defenses. It's just a question of making his shots. The Bulls have been far less effective when playing with just one day rest, which is the case here. Chicago lost the past two times to Milwaukee in Round 1 when playing on one day's rest. This is the Cavaliers' season. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times following a loss. I expect them to respond with a big effort and I want them going for me today.
|
05-05-15 |
Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
Top |
90-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 51 m |
Show
|
Forget the Zig/Zag and the Hawks being the superior team. Neither is going to hold up here. Washington upset Atlanta in Game 1 despite shooting less than 42 percent from the floor. The Wizards were the more rested team by far, but somewhat rusty. The Hawks were lucky to have drawn the Nets as their first-round playoff opponent. Atlanta isn't playing well. The Hawks averaged just 20.3 points during the final three quarters against the Wizards in Game 1. The Hawks were settling for low-percentage perimeter shots and not getting to the free throw line. John Wall gives Washington a point guard edge to go with the Wizards' strong rebounding advantage. Wall has dished off 55 assists during the last four games. He's playing at a far higher level than Jeff Teague. Paul Pierce is proving a savvy, veteran presence for the Wizards and Otto Porter has been a surprise off the bench. The Wizards were plus 11 during Porter's time on the court in Game 1 on Sunday. The facts are the Hawks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Wizards are 8-1 SU, 9-0 ATS the past two years in road playoff games beating market expectations by an average of 11.8 points per game. It's time to face that reality.
|
05-04-15 |
Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 |
Top |
99-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 48 m |
Show
|
Despite missing Kevin Love and suspended J. R. Smith, I don't see the Cavaliers falling to the Bulls in Game 1. The Cavaliers are an elite home team, have had eight days to rest and prepare and have a motivated and healthy LeBron James. Jimmy Butler was a monster against the Bucks in the Bulls' first-round series. Butler, though, isn't going to be the offensive force he was against Milwaukee having to concentrate and use so much of his energy to guard James. Tristan Thompson doesn't have Love's offensive game, but he's a beast on the boards and can successfully defend Pau Gasol. The Bulls own the stronger bench, but that's not going to factor much in this opening game because of Cleveland's extended rest and ample preparation time. Veterans Shawn Marion and Mike Miller can be counted on to step up for the Cavaliers in this spot given their vast playoff experience. I do expect James and Kyrie Irving to play heavy minutes. The Cavaliers have the shooters and ability, with James' drives to the basket, to spread the floor and make open shots. That style works against Gasol and inside defensive whiz Joakim Noah. Irving is a legitimate star. He's overshadowed by James. Derrick Rose was a star, but has yet to prove consistent since returning from injury. James and Irving can be counted on. I can't say the same for Rose.
|
05-03-15 |
Washington Wizards +5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
Top |
104-98 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 19 m |
Show
|
Damn the perception. The fact is the Wizards are road playoff warriors. They've proven that the past two seasons going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. Now they catch a break with the scheduling of this game. The Hawks are on a short turnaround having finally dispatched the Nets this past Friday. This is an early start game. They've had to travel three times already this week. The Wizards have been idle for a week leaving them fresh and well prepared. Forget the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. The Hawks peaked too early. They lost their mojo by resting starters too much down the stretch. It's a stinging indictment how much trouble they encountered taking six games to dispatch the Nets, who didn't play particularly well and were the worst team to make the playoffs. Atlanta is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games. The Wizards have the better point guard in John Wall, have been playing better defense and are a much superior rebounding team. They also are healthy while the Hawks are nicked up with Al Horford bothered by a right pinkie injury and Paul Millsap dealing with a sore right shoulder. Washington has beaten market expectations by close to 100 points in covering its last eight playoff road games. The Wizards are better than last season, too, now that savvy veteran Paul Pierce is on the team. This sets up as a perfect opportunity for the Wizards to steal Game 1.
|
04-30-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
102-96 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 56 m |
Show
|
I'm not convinced San Antonio is the superior team, let alone can cover this mid-range spread. The Clippers' stars are in their prime and in a must-win spot. Their NBA championship window can close as fast as aged San Antonio's in today's rapidly changing NBA. The Spurs should get the Clippers' best effort here. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering 13 of the past 17 times. Los Angeles also has proven itself on the road going 12-3-1 ATS during its past 16 away matchups. The Clippers know they can win on the road. They blew a 14-point lead in their last game against San Antonio at home, probably coming within a foolish offensive goaltending violation of beating the Spurs and owning the series lead. The Spurs nipped the Clippers in Game 5 by making 11 of 23 shots from 3-point range compared to the Clippers hitting only one of 14 from beyond the arc. San Antonio's reserves made 10 of 14 shots from 3-point range. These kind of figures aren't likely to come close to holding up. Certainly Jamal Crawford, the Clippers' top reserve, is due to break out of his shooting slump. He's missed an unbelievable 18 of his last 19 3-point shots during the past four games.
NFL Draft Props Todd Gurley Under 20 1/2 in Round 1 At least one Internet sportsbook has an over/under of 20 1/2 in the first round of when Georgia running back Todd Gurley will be picked. I like under. I believe Gurley will be among the first 15 players selected. Gurley is ahead of his rehab schedule after suffering a torn ACL this past November. His draft stock has risen considerably because of it. Gurley is a complete package runner. He could be the best running back prospect of the past three seasons. There is a lot of pre-draft buzz about the Dolphins taking him at No. 14, but Gurley may get snatched up before then. He could go as high as No. 6. A possible landing spot could be to the Browns at No. 12. The Browns need a featured star running back. Their quarterbacks are Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Cleveland failed to reach triple digits in rushing during half of their games last season.
More than 5 1/2 wide receivers being taken in Round 1 I see nine potential first-round wide receivers. Amari Cooper and Kevin White are likely to be among the first eight picks. It wouldn't surprise me to see DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett go in the top 20. Nelson Agholor is fast-rising so it now appears he's going in the first round. Dorial Green-Beckham is too intriguing a prospect to not get picked in the opening round. The Saints and Ravens are picking late in the draft and they both have receiving needs. Devin Smith and Jalen Strong are worthy of first-round consideration, too.
|
04-28-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -7 |
Top |
94-103 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
Now that Dallas got its victory in Game 4 at home, I don't see the Mavericks showing up here. The Mavericks are old and through. Chandler Parsons is hurt. Rajon Rondo basically has been kicked off the team and Dirk Nowitzki has too much age. The Mavericks lack the athleticism, chemistry and defense to stay close to the Rockets in this close-out match. Dallas also has a terrible history in Houston having not won there since 2005. The Rockets beat the Mavericks by double-digits in each of the first two playoff games at home. Even in losing Game 4, the Rockets still put up 109 points on a weak Dallas defense - and that was missing 16 straight shots at one point. Dwight Howard is fresh after having missed much of the regular season and Houston's other starters actually logged fewer minutes than Dallas's key players during the past game. Led by James Harden, the Rockets are a dangerous shooting team from beyond the arc. The Mavericks ranked 27th in 3-point defense. The Rockets can beat the Mavericks inside with Howard, or via the perimeter.
|
04-27-15 |
Atlanta Hawks -4 v. Brooklyn Nets |
Top |
115-120 |
Loss |
-107 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
Take away the first quarter of Game 1 and you could say the Nets have been the better team during the past 11 quarters of this series. The Nets served a big wake-up call to the Hawks by finally prevailing in Game 3, 91-83, at home this past Saturday.
Atlanta isn't playing nearly as well as it did earlier this season, averaging 10 points less per game so far in the playoffs than it did during the regular season. But I don't like the makeup of the Nets. Most of their best players are past their prime, they don't have a strong fan base with Barclays Center estimated to be only about 40 percent full at tip-off in Game 3 and Deron Williams isn't physically right.
The Hawks are due to play much better. Their backcourt players missed 24 of 30 shots from the perimeter in Game 3. The open looks were there, for the most part, the shots just weren't dropping. Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague and Al Horford were only a combined 8-for-33 from the floor.
The prideful Hawks are extremely well-coached and play with far more precision than Brooklyn. Atlanta's intensity is sure to be up. Cleveland is resting now after sweeping the Celtics and the Bulls are likely to close out the Bucks today. So the Hawks have a great deal of urgency to turn in their "A" game. They can't let this series get knotted at 2-2 and then face at least two more games.
Williams is battling both injury and ineffectiveness missing 13 of 15 shots from the floor during the last two games while dealing with tendinitis.
|
04-26-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
114-105 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
Last Sunday, the Clippers opened their first-round series against the Spurs winning, 107-92, at home. Now, a week later, the Clippers are middle-range road underdogs. That's what happens when you lose in overtime at home in Game 2 and get blown out this past Friday at San Antonio by 27 points. These teams, though, are much closer than this point spread especially with Tony Parker hampered by soreness in his right Achilles' tendon, left knee and left quadriceps. Parker is playing, but he's been ineffective missing 21 of 28 shots from the floor. I'm expecting a huge bounce back effort from the Clippers following their worst playoff defeat in franchise history. The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games and should be up 2-1 in the series. San Antonio is a proud champion, but this is not one of its great teams. The Game 3 blowout was unexpected. It would be even more of a shock if the Spurs blow out the Clippers - whose top stars are in their prime - a second time in a row. Chris Paul gives the Clippers a point guard edge with Parker not 100 percent. Rarely has Paul played poorly in consecutive games. Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick are due for much better performances, too, after making only a combined 5-of-18 shots from the floor in Game 3.
|
04-25-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans +7 |
Top |
109-98 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
Golden State wins games. But the Warriors don't cover point spreads. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, 0-6 during their past six matchups. New Orleans is full of talent with the best big man in the game, Anthony Davis. The Pelicans match up well to the Warriors, who are a jump-shooting, small team. The Pelicans trailed Golden State by six with under a minute to play in Game 1 before losing by seven. The Pelicans blew a 13-point lead in losing Game 2. Then, two nights ago at home, the Pelicans lost a 20-point fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime. Golden State has savvy, heart and playoff experience. The Warriors know how to win. The Pelicans don't. But New Orleans is well past its playoff jitters being in the postseason for the first time since 2011. Sure there is a chance the Pelicans quit after being so close to victory in their last game. There also is the chance the Warriors still are celebrating their miracle Game 3 comeback and don't play with their usual concentration, focus and high energy. It's very difficult - and somewhat of a guess - to try to figure out a team's psyche. But I do know the Warriors are 0-7 ATS the past seven times following a victory and have failed to cover 19 of the past 26 times when playing on one day's rest. New Orleans is 20-7 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning record and have covered in their last six home contests. The Pelicans haven't been this big of home 'dogs since Jan. 30.
|
04-23-15 |
Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 |
|
113-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
The Bucks improved by 26 games from last season after finishing with an NBA-worst 15-67 record two seasons ago. They are well-coached, have a good bench and are past their early playoff jitters. This is an effort-team with heart. Now they are home for the first time in the series. This is the season for Milwaukee. The Bucks are shooting just 37.4 percent in the series. They have missed 25 of 33 shots from 3-point range. Chicago's defense is down a notch this season. The Bucks have just missed covering during the first two games. I see the Bucks shooting better and playing their best game of the series. This is their game to win. The Bucks have doubled teamed Pau Gasol and bottled up the Bulls inside. It has been Chicago's outside shooting and clutch 3-pointers - particularly by Jimmy Butler - that has kept the Bucks from covering. Butler is a fine player. But he's not a 28-point per game scorer. The Bulls may be without Nikola Mirotic, who suffered a knee and quad injury during Game 2. That would weaken an already thin Chicago bench.
|
04-22-15 |
Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -6 |
Top |
82-97 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 18 m |
Show
|
Memphis beat Portland, 100-86, in Sunday's Game 1 playoff game. I see the Grizzlies winning again by double digits at home in Game 2.
The Trail Blazers have a key injury, are suffering from lack of confidence and do not match well against the physical Grizzlies. The Grizzlies could have buried the Trail Blazers by even more as they led by 24 points entering the final quarter.
Memphis owns Portland. The Grizzlies have won and covered all five meetings this season, winning three of them by double-digits. Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four visits to FedEx Forum.
This is where the Trail Blazers really miss Wesley Matthews, their highly underrated, all-purpose swingman. The Grizzlies are able to clamp down on Damian Lillard while their tall, bruising front court players keep LaMarcus Aldridge in check. The Trail Blazers don't have any other consistent scoring weapons. C.J. McCollum certainly isn't ready for prime time and Arron Afflalo has missed the past four games with a sore shoulder. Even if he plays today his shooting can't be relied upon.
Not only did Mike Conley show he could deal with his painful right heel that had kept him out of the last four games of the regular season, but defensive whiz Tony Allen also played strong, too, in Game 1 for the Grizzlies in his first action since March 27. Allen had three steals.
Conley should perform even better now that he knocked some of the rust off. Backup Grizzlies point guard Beno Udrih, meanwhile, has been playing extremely well. He had 20 points, seven assists, seven rebounds and did not turn the ball over in 24:12 minutes of action in Game 1.
The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game during the season. Portland is a finesse team, extremely vulnerable to the physical Grizzlies.
Lillard missed 16 of 21 shots from the floor and had only three assists in nearly 40 minutes. Portland could manage just six fastbreak points in Game 1 as the Grizzlies controlled tempo. That's not going to change here. If anything it's going to get worse judging by the matchup issues the Trail Blazers face and their sagging body language, which shows a realistic lack of faith against this opponent in this tough setting.
|
04-20-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks +8 v. Chicago Bulls |
|
82-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
The Bucks are going to come hard at the Bulls here. The intensity level has risen. Points should be hard to come by. As expected the young Bucks had first game playoff jitters - and it showed. They won't have that problem in Game 2. Their nerves have settled down. Derrick Rose scored 23 points and had seven assists in his first playoff game in three years. Rose still has some rust. I don't expect him to shoot as well as he did in Game 1. The Bucks had the right strategy double-teaming Pau Gasol. He had his lowest-scoring game in six weeks missing 12 of 17 shots from the field. The Bucks lost by 12 points in Game 1, but took six more shots than the Bulls. Milwaukee, though, shot only 39.3 percent from the floor and 69.3 percent from the foul line. Chicago shot 45.8 percent from the floor. The Bucks were the seventh-best shooting team from the field during the regular season averaging 45.9 percent while making 75.7 percent of their free throws. The Bulls have failed to cover 17 of the past 25 times following a point spread cover.
|
04-19-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11 |
|
100-113 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 27 m |
Show
|
Cleveland closed 33-9 and in my view is the best team in the Eastern Conference. Nothing less than a championship is the Cavaliers' goal. So Cleveland doesn't want to mess around with Boston. The Celtics have yet to take the Cavaliers' best punch beating them twice during their last four games when Cleveland didn't play its best players. But now the Celtics are going to get their full lethal dose of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Cleveland is not going to lack motivation here. Brad Stevens is turning out to be a fine coaching hire. The Celtics are kind of like a poor man's version of the Hawks with big men who pass and spread the floor bolstered with a good bench play and chemistry. However, the Celtics lack playoff experience. This is just their second nationally televised game of the season. The Celtics also have nowhere close to the Cavaliers' talent. Stevens has the Celtics ahead of schedule making the playoffs in just his second year at the helm. There is much rebuilding left to do, though, in Boston. The Celtics are not ready to make this big of a jump - stay close to an elite opponent in a road playoff game - yet. That may come next year. Not this season.
|
04-18-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5 |
|
91-103 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 7 m |
Show
|
Much is being made of Derrick Rose's sore knee, but the Bulls don't need Rose to be on his "A" game to cover this number against the Bucks. Milwaukee is thrilled to be in the playoffs after finishing with the worst record last season. Many of the key Bucks players lack the necessary playoff experience. Being on the road in Game 1 is a huge negative. The Bulls are a tough matchup for Milwaukee having covered five of the past six. The Bulls have been hiding in the weeds overshadowed for much of the year by the Hawks and now the surging Cavaliers. They are underrated at this point.
|
04-15-15 |
Detroit Pistons -6 v. New York Knicks |
Top |
112-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
Detroit is 14 games better than New York. The Pistons average seven more points per game than the Knicks. The big question is can the Pistons cover a mid-size road number in this matchup? Detroit has the talent and coaching to do it. I also believe the Pistons have the motivation thanks to Stan Van Gundy while the Knicks need to lose this game. New York has potentially hurt its ping pong lottery chances by winning two in a row, including impressively defeating the Hawks in its last game two nights ago. OK, point made by Derek Fisher. Now reality has to sink in for the Knicks, who should be fat and happy even though this is their worst season in franchise history. A victory here could severely hurt the Knicks in the long run - something their management is well aware of. If New York beats the Pistons today and the Timberwolves and 76ers also lose, the Knicks would finished tied for the second-worst record with Philadelphia. That would mean a coin toss between the Knicks and 76ers for the No. 2 lottery seed. If the Knicks were to lose that coin flip they would drop down to the No. 3 seed and in the lottery drawing a team could fall three spots. That means the Knicks could potentially end up with the sixth pick in the draft despite having the worst record in franchise history. But lose here to the Pistons and that scenario is erased. The Pistons are a lottery team, too, but winning this game won't change their seeding placement. Detroit has revenge for a 121-115 home loss to the Knicks on Feb. 27. Detroit has a huge talent edge particularly upfront with Andre Drummond and upcoming free agent Greg Monroe, who really would like to shine in this game since there are heavy rumors that he's going to sign with the Knicks following the season. Van Gundy is an extremely prideful man. He doesn't want his season ending on a pair of sour notes with a loss to the lowly Knicks after getting blown out in their previous game against the Cavaliers, 109-97, this past Monday. The Pistons are 9-0 ATS following a double-digit defeat. The fiery Van Gundy has kept Detroit competitive down the stretch despite not making the playoffs. The Pistons have covered in nine of their last 13 games.
|
04-15-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks -4 |
|
105-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
On the surface this game is meaningless as both Boston and Milwaukee have clinched playoff berths. The spot, though, greatly favors the Bucks. Milwaukee has won three in a row and is motivated to finish with its first winning record in five years. Boston has a five-game winning streak, but will be resting starters. Out for sure is guard Avery Bradley, who left last night's game against Toronto with a left leg injury. "We'll play some guys a lot less," Boston coach Brad Stevens was quoted as saying after the Celtics nipped the Raptors, 95-93, at home Tuesday night on a last-second fall-away jumper by Jae Crowder. "I assume we'll go deep into our bench (Wednesday) night." Bucks coach Jason Kidd hasn't tipped his hand how long he'll play his starters, but finishing with a winning record is important for the Bucks. Milwaukee also has one of the stronger benches in the league. The Celtics have been winning, but a closer examination of their five-game winning streak is in order. Boston beat the Cavaliers twice when Cleveland was sitting out key players. The Celtics also defeated the lottery-bound Pistons and edged the Raptors twice with each game decided at the buzzer. Toronto was without key players in those losses to Boston, missing DeMar DeRozan last night and Kyle Lowery when it fell by one point in overtime. The Bucks are 2-0 versus the Celtics this season. They defeated them, 110-101, in Boston on April 3 when the Celtics played well. Boston isn't likely to come close to bringing it's "A" game in this matchup.
|
04-14-15 |
Toronto Raptors +2.5 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
93-95 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 9 m |
Show
|
First of all, this line has moved considerably since I first put it out. I like Toronto - even as a short favorite - but I would only recommend the Raptors as a one unit wager now since the early value has been lost. Here is my analysis on the game: Outstanding job by the Celtics this season to make the playoffs. But the young Celtics aren't better than Toronto and will be hard-pressed not to avoid a letdown after clinching a playoff spot last night when the Nets lost to the Bulls. The Raptors are 2-1 versus Boston this season with their lone loss occurring in overtime by one point on a Boston basket at the buzzer 10 days ago at home. Toronto has plenty of incentive trailing Chicago by one-half game for the No. 3 seed in the East, quick revenge and looking to set a franchise record for victories during the regular season. Toronto is back playing well winning six of its last eight. Star Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry should be less rusty. This will be his third game back after missing seven in a row because of back trouble. Boston concludes its regular season tomorrow night at Milwaukee. The Celtics are a fantastic 10-1 the past 11 times when playing without rest. However, they are 4-7 during the first of consecutive games, which this matchup is. This record includes three consecutive losses at home. Overall, the Celtics have lost and failed to cover in four of their past six home contests.
|
04-13-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Sacramento Kings -3.5 |
|
92-102 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is bad on bad, but the Lakers are worse than the Kings and really don't want to win due to lottery positioning.
The Kings are minus Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins, but the Lakers also are depleted and now are minus injured Wesley Johnson.
Sacramento concludes its season at the Lakers on Wednesday. There is no way George Karl, who is trying to make the Kings respectable, wants to go into the off-season having concluded the season with back-to-back losses to the Lakers. This is Sacramento's game to win.
|
04-13-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Utah Jazz -10.5 |
Top |
92-109 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
Utah cares about this game - with triple revenge motivation and this being its last home game of the season. Dallas doesn't care. The Mavericks are locked into the No. 7 seed and are expected to rest all of their key players. Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler all are expected to sit out. Reports have them not even traveling to the game. Chandler Parson isn't expected to play either because of a knee injury that has kept him out of the past four games. Dallas has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road matchups. This is its third road contest in four days and second in two days. The Mavericks are 0-3 SU and ATS the past three times when playing without rest. The Jazz are playing well going 18-9 since the All-Star break. Utah ranks No. 1 in defense holding foes to 94.7 points per game. The Jazz have held 19 of their last 24 opponents under 93 points a game. No team has played stronger defense since mid-February. Utah is an excellent current form winning six of its last eight while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Jazz have scored 101 or more points in three of their last four games. This is a give-up, meaningless game for Dallas. The Jazz have everything going.
|
04-12-15 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers |
Top |
104-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 46 m |
Show
|
This matchup should have a playoff-type intensity with both teams desperately needing to win in their respective bids to earn a postseason berth - and I want the points with the Western Conference team. Oklahoma City has won its last five games versus Eastern Conference competition defeating the Raptors, Bulls, Celtics, Hawks and Heat. The Thunder are minus Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. That knocks them out of elite status, but they still have talent with Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters. Their record would look much better if they were in the Eastern Conference despite their major injuries. Oklahoma City got back on track by rolling past Sacramento, 116-103, this past Thursday. Prior to beating the Kings, the Thunder had played the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. That's a brutal schedule. The Pacers aren't nearly as good as the Spurs, Rockets and Grizzlies. Yes, Indiana is playing well winning four in a row. But the Pacers have taken advantage of a weak schedule having faced six consecutive sub .500 opponents. Now they step up in a chalk role.
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04-12-15 |
Sacramento Kings +10 v. Denver Nuggets |
|
111-122 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
Sacramento has key injuries. DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay - the Kings' two best players by far - are both out. Denver, though, is 65-96 the past two seasons, including 29-50 this season. The Nuggets have dropped five of their last six. They should not be double-digit favorites against any team. This is going to be an emotional game for Kings coach George Karl, who coached the Nuggets for eight plus years and was let go in controversial fashion. This is the first time he's coaching against his former team. I believe he'll have his team ready and the Kings will play hard and with motivation, something they don't always do on the road. Sacramento has won during its last two visits to Denver. The last being this past November. The Nuggets still could be winded from playing an emotional double overtime game this past Friday night against Dallas in which there were 287 points scored. All but one of Denver's starters logged between 45-52 minutes in that wild game.
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04-11-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
Top |
0-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
I see the Dodgers rebounding in a big way after losing to Arizona last night. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he's opposed by Archie Bradley, who is making his first big league start. Kershaw has given up just one earned run in his last two starts versus the Diamondbacks spanning 15 innings. The Diamondbacks ' offense is heavily reliant on superstar Paul Goldschmidt and he's batting .206 lifetime against Kershaw in 29 at bats. Arizona has lost in six of its last seven games versus southpaws. Bradley has to not only prove he's big-league ready, but also that's he over a right flexor strain that bothered him last year when he went 3-7 with a 4.45 ERA in 18 minor league starts.
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04-11-15 |
Philadelphia 76ers +14.5 v. Chicago Bulls |
Top |
107-114 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is an awkward spot for the Bulls. They just returned home following a three-game road trip that culminated in a satisfying victory two days ago against Miami. Following this game, the Bulls have a more challenging matchup on Monday at Brooklyn. This is Chicago's lone home matchup during a one-week span. That could mean reduced focus since the Bulls head right back to the road after just arriving home yesterday. This isn't necessarily a kill spot for the Bulls, who are playing for the third time in four days. They just want to win and get the rust of Derrick Rose - who has missed 16 of 24 shots from the floor since returning from injury two games ago. The 76ers won't have Nerlens Noel due to a sprained ankle. But the 76ers still are holding out hope of reaching 20 victories, which is a big deal for them. Philadelphia has been idle since Wednesday when it was blasted at home by the Wizards, 119-90. So motivation, effort and prep time shouldn't be lacking. The 76ers have covered 11 of the last 15 times following an ATS loss. They also are 14-3 ATS after losing by 10 or more points at home. The Bulls haven't been good in this role failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times when going against under .500 teams.
|
04-10-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies -3 v. Utah Jazz |
Top |
89-88 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is the first of a three-game road trip for the Grizzlies, who are locked into a close race for playoff seeding in the West. Memphis could tumble all the way from being the No. 2 seed to being the sixth seed. That could happen if the Grizzlies lose here. Because after this game, the Grizzlies play a hot and well-rested Clippers team on Saturday and then take on the NBA-best Warriors on Monday. The Grizzlies are well aware of this. They know this is a game they can not afford to lose. Their motivation should be even more increased having lost at home to the Jazz, 93-82, last month. Utah is playing well even though it is out of the playoff race. But the Jazz are stepping way up in class here. During their last five games, the Jazz have gone against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Suns and Kings twice. None of those teams can play defense. Memphis can. The Jazz need sharpshooter Gordon Hayward to hit his perimeter shots to beat at elite opponent. Hayward has been having a career season, but now has hit the wall. He's missed 11 of 14 shots from the floor during the last two games and Jazz coach Quin Snyder is restricting his minutes. I don't see any of the Jazz's young and inconsistent shooters stepping up against such a quality defensive foe. The Grizzlies yield 95.1 points per game, second-best in the NBA.
|
04-10-15 |
Phoenix Suns v. New Orleans Pelicans -9 |
|
75-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
It's official now. The Suns aren't making the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. It looked like the Suns were going to end this dry spell when they won 28 of their first 48 games. But Phoenix management tinkered with their roster making three deals that so far haven't worked out. The result is an 11-20 mark in their last 31 games. The Suns have injuries with Brandon Knight and Alex Len out. Eric Bledsoe, their key player, isn't producing. Morale is bad. So is the defense, which ranks 26th, and the Suns can't always be counted on to play hard. They have lost three games by 27 points this season. New Orleans, on the other hand, is extremely motivated. The Pelicans are off their worst loss of the season, losing 110-74 to the Grizzlies this past Wednesday. They are tied with the Thunder for the final playoff spot in the West, but the Thunder has the easier schedule. The Pelicans still have to play the Rockets and Spurs. They certainly can't afford to slip up here at home against a demoralized Suns squad. If you discount road games against the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, the Pelicans are averaging 105.8 points per game during their last five games. Anthony Davis should prove unstoppable against a small Phoenix lineup minus Len. Phoenix has surrendered at least 107 points in four of its last six games.
|
04-09-15 |
Chicago Bulls +1 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
89-78 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
Both teams have playoff incentive. Miami is favored because its home and Chicago is playing without rest. But the Bulls are the better team and could have their starting lineup intact again if Derrick Rose plays as expected. Rose got some rust off last night, but the Bulls lost to Orlando. That was their third consecutive road loss. They are 0-2 on this road swing, which concludes with this matchup. Chicago hasn't lost four road games in a row all season. The Bulls desperately don't want to go 0-3 on this road trip either. The Bulls' starting lineup is trying to get back in sync. Chicago is 15-5 when it's regular starters have opened the game. The Bulls are playing for the second consecutive night. However, they just had a short trip from Central Florida to South Florida and were idle on Monday and Tuesday. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. Rose's minutes may be limited, but Miami is far more banged-up. Several Miami players are battling illness, including Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. They may not play. In addition, several other key Miami players aren't 100 percent including Hassan Whiteside (hand) and Luol Deng (knee). Remember, Chris Bosh is out for the season. You know Miami is a MASH unit when Dwayne Wade could be their healthiest player right now. The Heat are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Miami is only 1-4 in its last five games failing to cover the spread in any of those contests. Chicago is 12-5 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. The Bulls should be embarrassed about losing to lowly Orlando. They have the defensive intensity to take advantage of Miami's weak offense. Only two teams average fewer points per game than Miami. The Heat are going to need to hit their perimeter shots with defensive ace Joakim Noah patrolling the middle for Chicago. Miami, though, is averaging only 18 percent from beyond the arc in its last three games and has missed 30 of 35 shots from 3-point range in their two matchups this season versus the Bulls, who rank fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage.
|
04-08-15 |
Minnesota Timberwolves +17 v. Portland Trail Blazers |
|
91-116 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 2 m |
Show
|
Minnesota has a cluster injury problem. The plus to that, though, is the Timberwolves have motivated youngsters playing for their futures with fresh legs. They also have probable Rookie-of-the-Year Andrew Wiggins, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of his last eight games, and veteran sharpshooter Kevin Martin, who scored 37 points last night. The Trail Blazers are enduring a crazy traveling scheduling brought on by a make-up game at Brooklyn this past Monday. The Trail Blazers had to make the long trip to the East Coast and immediately fly back to the West Coast. They have a far more crucial game on deck Thursday night against the Warriors in Golden State. This marks their fourth game in six days. I expect the Trail Blazers to have all hands on deck except of course for injured Wesley Matthews. But Portland has a weak bench and no reason to have their starters log major minutes. The Timberwolves are the worst defensive team in the NBA although their porous defense may improve as their inexperienced players keep learning to play together. Portland, however, hasn't been great defensively either ranking 20th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. It's hard to believe, but the Timberwolves held the Trail Blazers to their lowest-scoring game of the season in a 90-82 victory. Minnesota has defeated Portland in two of its three meetings this season. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Timberwolves at home six consecutive. The winning margin in those games is 12 points, much lower than this point spread.
|
04-08-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 |
|
74-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a big game for both teams, but the situation is ripe for Memphis. The Grizzlies have been idle since Saturday. They've had all this time to reflect on a bad 92-83 home loss to the Wizards in their last game. The Grizzlies have been preparing hard for this matchup. They consider it a playoff game. Memphis has some banged-up players, but the extra time off between games should help. New Orleans is in a dogfight with Oklahoma City for the last Western Conference playoff spot. Right now the Pelicans are there at the No. 8 and final seed after an emotional 103-100 victory against the Warriors last night. The Pelicans' best players are fragile. Memphis could be the most physical team in the NBA. It's the fourth game in six days for New Orleans and second in two nights. The Pelicans have played without rest twice since March 20 and lost by 16 points to the Warriors and by nine to the Trail Blazers in those games, both of which were on the road. The last time the Pelicans played at Memphis was back in November when they lost 93-81. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS the last seven times it has played a foe with a winning record. The Grizzlies are in their own battle for playoff seeding. Following this game, the Grizzlies embark on a three-game road swing playing the Jazz, Clippers and Warriors. That's not going to be easy so they desperately need to win this home game.
|
04-08-15 |
Atlanta Hawks +6 v. Brooklyn Nets |
Top |
114-111 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
The perception is the Hawks are going to roll over for the Nets. That's not going to be the case here. The Hawks are vastly better than Brooklyn even not having Paul Millsap for this game. Atlanta is 3-0 this season versus the Nets winning those matchups by a combined 66 points, an average victory margin of 22 points. Atlanta has a strong bench and wants to establish a good rhythm going into the playoffs. Losing doesn't foster that. The Hawks blew out the Suns last night. None of Atlanta's players logged more than 27 minutes. Another reason why the Hawks don't want to lose in this spot is they have the right to swap draft picks with the Nets. They would do that if the Nets missed the playoffs. So the Hawks can hurt Brooklyn's playoff chances with a victory. That might have factored when Atlanta hammered the Nets, 131-99, this past Saturday.
|
04-07-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers +17.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
Top |
100-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
These two teams just met this past Sunday and the Clippers blew out the Lakers, 106-78. That game opened as low as Clippers minus 11 1/2. Now look at where the point spread is. The Clippers enjoy blowing out their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers six straight times and they know they can win this game just by showing up. The Clippers won't play again until Saturday. That's three straight days off, which is extremely rare this late in the season. So I see the Clippers being overconfident while also not being fully focused thinking ahead of how to spend their upcoming free time. The Lakers are going to play hard here off Sunday night's embarrassment. This is what point guard Jeremy Lin said following that 28-point loss to the Clippers, "What happened tonight (Sunday) is definitely not a good feeling, so we want to make sure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday." The Lakers are 11-3-1 (78%) ATS in their past 15 games following a loss. They have covered 63 percent during the past 20 times they've been an underdog. Shooting guard Jamal Crawford is expected to play for the Clippers after missing the last 17 games with a calf injury. Crawford is an instant offensive player off the bench, but he figures to be rusty here. So his appearance would be a plus for the Lakers since he's a gunner and would take a lot of shots. One of the keys to the Clippers blowing out the Lakers this past Sunday was they controlled point guard Jordan Clarkson holding him to two points and three assists in 26 minutes. Clarkson struggled versus the Clippers' pressure and seemed taken aback whenever Clippers' big men DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin jumped out to double team him. Clarkson has had a strong rookie year. Look for him to handle the Clippers much better after studying film and knowing what he's going to be facing. He won't be taken by surprise the second time around. Clarkson is the key cog for the Lakers. Keep in mind, too, that although the Clippers are the home team this is the Lakers' home-court, too.
|
04-05-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers -12.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
Top |
106-78 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 18 m |
Show
|
First it should be pointed out this isn't a true home game for the Lakers since both teams play at Staples Center. The Lakers have run out of gas. LA is full of inexperience and lacks talent aside from promising point guard Jordan Clarkson. They need an all-out effort to keep within point spread range. The Clippers aren't going to allow that to happen. They love to bury the Lakers having won the last five meetings by an average of 27.8 points per game. They are 2-0 versus the Lakers this season with a winning margin of 16 points per game. The Clippers have their offense rolling with Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin all playing at high levels. They are averaging 113.7 points in their last nine games. The Lakers can't stop them defensively ranking 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers are 0-2 this month. Both of their defeats were bad losses at home - by 21 points to the Pelicans and by 30 points to the Trail Blazers this past Friday. The Lakers actually don't want to win. That's because they hold the fourth-worst record in the NBA. If they do not finish with one of the five worst records they would lose their top pick this year to the 76ers because it's not top-five protected.
|
04-04-15 |
Michigan State v. Duke -5.5 |
Top |
61-81 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 56 m |
Show
|
A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic. But two major things haven't changed. Tom Izzo still can't beat Duke. The Spartans are 1-8 versus the Blue Devils under Izzo and Michigan State still has no answer for big man Jahil Okafor. Both teams are playing strong defense. The Spartans, though, can't match up to Duke's top-end talent. Okafor destroyed the Spartans in the first meeting. The Spartans can't get around that. If they double-team Okafor, the Blue Devils have the excellent perimeter game to take advantage especially from 3-point range. The Spartans have overachieved to get this far. Duke is a legitimate top three team with perhaps the second-best talent in the country next to Kentucky. The Blue Devils have the big man, pedigree and coaching to get it done again with a convincing victory. They are 18-7-1 (72%) ATS the past 26 times when facing opponents with a winning percentage above .600.
|
04-03-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Sacramento Kings +6 |
Top |
101-95 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 56 m |
Show
|
All the attention and focus for this matchup is on New Orleans. The Pelicans have won three in a row and are battling hard with Oklahoma City for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Pelicans have blown out their last three opponents, including the Kings last Friday at home, 102-88. Not much is being said about the Kings because they are a lottery team and have lost three in a row. The Kings also will be missing Rudy Gay, their only other star besides DeMarcus Cousins. But there are some beneath the radar factors that point to Sacramento as being the right side here. The Kings' last two road defeats were to the Grizzlies and Rockets. Certainly no shame in losing to those Western Conference powers. Those two teams are especially strong playing at home. The Kings played the Rockets extremely tough despite not having Gay, losing 115-111, two nights ago. Sacramento leads the NBA in free throw attempts, but shot nine fewer free throws than the Rockets did. Sacramento has won its last four home games. The Kings fit the standard category of being much stronger at home than on the road. They have recent revenge, too, having gotten blown out at New Orleans just seven days ago. Even with that loss, the Kings still have defeated New Orleans in four of the last six meetings. The Pelicans have a bad history in Sacramento going 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 visits. This is the Kings' first home game since March 24. More evidence than a strong effort should be forthcoming. The Pelicans, by contrast, are in a flat spot. They just buried the Kings a week ago and then they buried the hapless Lakers in their last game this past Wednesday. Following this matchup, the Pelicans are at the Trail Blazers on Saturday. That's followed by a home contest for them against the Warriors and a road game versus the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Those are all far more challenging games and the Pelicans, a youthful bunch lacking veteran savvy, can't help but be looking ahead. Anthony Davis is a monster. But so is Cousins. This is the rare time where Davis can have his points and outstanding all-around play matched by a fellow big man.
|
04-01-15 |
Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks |
Top |
91-95 |
Loss |
-105 |
27 h 49 m |
Show
|
The Bulls are in the hunt for the No. 2 playoff seed in the East. The Bucks are trying to hold on for a playoff spot. Not only is there a major class difference between these two teams, but the Bulls are in much better current form. Aided by the recent return of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, Chicago has won and covered five of its last six. The Bulls are averaging 104.5 points during their last six games while giving up an average of 92.3 points a game during this span. Milwaukee has dropped eight of its last 10. That mark would be 1-9 if not for Khris Middleton long 3-pointer at the buzzer to nip Miami by one point at home during this time frame. The Bucks are giving up nearly 104 points during their last seven games. They don't have the offense to make up for a defense that has sprung leaks. Chicago has been idle since Saturday. So the Bulls should be rested and well prepared. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks in Milwaukee winning the past nine times there. The Bulls are 3-0 against the Bucks this season winning by an average margin of 8.3 points.
|
03-31-15 |
Stanford -2 v. Old Dominion |
|
67-60 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 23 m |
Show
|
I want the Pac-12 team going for me here at this short point spread range against Old Dominion of Conference USA. The Monarchs joined Conference USA just two years ago making the jump from the Colonial Athletic Association. This was a strong year in the Pac 12. Stanford has faced stiffer competition and has the much superior offense. Old Dominion averages nearly eight points fewer per game than Stanford. The Monarchs do not shoot well from the floor nor foul line. Their best player by far is point guard Trey Freeman, who is dealing with a sore ankle and likely won't be 100 percent. The Monarchs have played their last three games at home inside their small, compact gym. Now they have to make the adjustment to spacious and intimidating Madison Square Garden. Stanford is more experienced with higher profile games. The Cardinal should be able to handle the pressure better than the Monarchs mentally and physically. Stanford led the Pac-12 in fewest turnovers per game at 10.7. If Old Dominion can't be disruptive defensively the Monarchs are in deep trouble because they have no offense to fall back on. Old Dominion has been living on borrowed time winning its last two NIT games by a combined four points, including nipping Murray State at the buzzer on a 30-foot 3-pointer. Now the Monarchs step up in class. Expect their luck to run out.
|
03-29-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies +8 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
89-103 |
Loss |
-108 |
13 h 25 m |
Show
|
First off, this isn't a fade on San Antonio. The Spurs are making their move playing their best basketball with Kawhi Leonard healthy and Tony Parker at long last stepping up his game. My handicap is entirely based on the Grizzlies meeting this challenge, getting what I see as an overly generous amount of points. Memphis has gotten blown out in its last two games by the Warriors and Cavaliers. I rank those as the two best teams in the NBA right now. The Grizzlies aren't in that highest of tiers. But they are an elite team and at the very next level with San Antonio. The Grizzlies have surrendered 111 and 107 points during those losses to Golden State and Cleveland. They still rank No. 2 in scoring defense. Memphis hasn't allowed three consecutive triple-digit games in regulation all season. This is a stop-the-pain game for them with their pride on the line. Memphis has proven itself before versus upper tier opponents going 7-2-1 ATS the past 10 times facing foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Grizzlies hold the No. 2 seed in the West, but just by one-half game over Houston. The urgency factor for Memphis can't be underestimated. The Grizzlies host Sacramento, which has lost 11 of its last 14 road games, on Monday. That should be a Memphis victory. The Grizzlies then won't play again until Friday. This is the game they need for their self-respect. Their defense and an inflated point spread put me on them in this spot.
|
03-29-15 |
Philadelphia 76ers +17 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
|
86-87 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
Open the season with 17 straight losses and you're marked as a terrible team. That's the case with Philadelphia. The 76ers rank as among the worst teams in the NBA. But they are better than perceived, have under-the-radar talent and lately have been proving to be a money-maker covering eight of their last 13 games. They also are 4-0 ATS the last four times taking 15 or more points. Philly is a respectable 5-6 straight-up in its last 11 games. Now I realize those victories came against the Hawks, who were resting three starters, and versus four other opponents with a combined winning percentage of less than .400. But do realize, too, the 76ers are much improved. Nerlens Noel is making a late challenge for rookie of the year honors. He's averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds per game during his last five games. Another rookie, Jerami Grant, has been displaying potential lately and Robert Covington can be a capable scorer. The 76ers, unlike many veteran teams, have fresh legs at this late stage of the season because of their extreme youth. Before getting blown out by the Clippers at home, 119-98, on Friday night the 76ers had held their previous five foes to an average of 91.4 points per game. Talking perception again. The 76ers aren't perceived as being a prideful team - just a rebuilding lottery squad. Yet they are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times following a double-digit defeat. I see them playing hard here following that bad home loss. They want to do their best against LeBron James. This is an awkward scheduling spot for the Cavaliers. This is their first game back from a three-game road trip. Cleveland's next game isn't until Thursday. So focus could be a problem for the Cavaliers. Yes, the Cavaliers can beat the 76ers just by showing up with their huge talent edge. But covering this big of a spread is a different matter. The 76ers haven't been this big of underdogs in nearly two months. They are a different team since then.
|
03-28-15 |
Denver Nuggets +9 v. Portland Trail Blazers |
Top |
114-120 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
The Nuggets are a much improved team since Melvin Hunt replaced clueless Brian Shaw. Denver is 8-6 under Hunt and can prove dangerous in the right spot. This is a good spot for the Nuggets. Both Denver and Portland are off excellent victories last night. But the Trail Blazers carry a much higher fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in five days and first home game following consecutive road wins against the Jazz and Suns. Portland has a weak bench - made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews - and plays again on Monday at home against Phoenix while the Nuggets won't play again until Wednesday. That should ensure an all-out effort by the Nuggets. Yes, motivation can be a factor for non-playoff teams such as Denver, but the Nuggets have triple revenge incentive. They are a much different team now than the previous three times the Trail Blazers played and defeated them. Ty Lawson must play well for the Nuggets to be competitive. There are strong indications that is going to happen. Lawson has been performing well putting up 18 points and nine assists in an easy victory against the Jazz Friday night. This is what Hunt said about Lawson following that win, "The kid is playing some of the best basketball I've seen him play. That speed is special. It's a special weapon." Lawson may be the quickest point guard in the NBA. He's caused Portland problems in the past averaging 24.7 points and nine assists in the first three meetings. Portland has an excellent point guard, too, in Damian Lillard. But Lillard has logged major minutes this season and the four games in five days factor could affect him a great deal against Lawson. Under Hunt, the Nuggets have gone 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a straight-up victory. They also have covered in five of their last seven road matchups.
|
03-27-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5 |
Top |
76-94 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 28 m |
Show
|
I can't see San Antonio losing for the second time in three nights to Dallas. The big question is can the Spurs cover this high number? I believe they can based on how well they've been playing - especially at home - and given Dallas' current road woes. The Mavericks are 1-5 in their last six road contests with the lone victory coming against the Lakers, who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. During this span, four of Dallas' road losses have come by 15 or more points. Dallas has failed to cover in its last six road matchups and last won at San Antonio during the regular season in 2010, a span of eight consecutive defeats. The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus foes with a winning home mark. Kawhi Leonard is healthy and Tony Parker finally is playing better. Those factors have helped turn the Spurs back into being an elite force. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home games, 7-3 ATS, with the only loss coming to the red-hot Cavaliers when Kyrie Irving went off for 57 points. The Spurs followed up their loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday night with a smashing 130-91 victory over Oklahoma City two nights ago. Gregg Popovich is stepping on the gas. I don't see the Spurs regressing here.
|
03-27-15 |
NC State +3 v. Louisville |
Top |
65-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 3 m |
Show
|
I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones. The Wolfpack showed they were capable of big things if getting on a roll owning victories against Duke and North Carolina. North Carolina State has a very strong backcourt - much better than Louisville's - with excellent guards and its frontcourt players are stepping up. This is the winning formula for the Wolfpack as the Cardinals can't match NCS's guard play. I'm not impressed with the Cardinals. I believe the wrong team is favored. Yes, Louisville stepped up to beat Northern Iowa, 66-53, this past Sunday. But this is not one of Rick Pitino's stronger Cardinal teams. Northern Iowa doesn't have NC State's athleticism. Neither does Cal Irvine of the Big West Conference. Those were the two teams Louisville beat to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina State has a dynamic, deep backcourt and athletic frontcourt players, the kind that cause problems for the Cardinals. Freshman Quentin Snider is replacing the suspended senior Jones. He's played well in the tournament - so far. I think Jones' absence, though, will be particularly noticed in this matchup. The teams met on Feb. 14 in Louisville - and North Carolina State won, 74-65. The Wolfpack held the Cardinals to less than 30 percent shooting from the floor. That's not a fluke as the Cardinals are not a good shooting team especially from 3-point range where they ranked 312th.
|
03-25-15 |
Sacramento Kings +8 v. Phoenix Suns |
|
108-99 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
Sacramento has won three in a row. Phoenix has won four straight. So something has to give. The Kings are not a good road team, but Phoenix isn't strong enough to lay this many points especially on the defensive end where it holds foes to fewer than two points less per game than Sacramento. Barring a semi-miracle, the Suns aren't a playoff team. If you discount the Suns' 117-point performance against Houston two games ago, they are averaging 89.4 points during their last seven games. The Suns have a losing spread record at home during their past 15 games at U.S. Airways Center. Phoenix has bigger games on deck hosting Portland on Friday and Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Suns may still be without point guard Brandon Knight, who has missed the last six games with an ankle injury. You can't judge the Kings by their 25-45 overall record. They are far more respectable since George Karl replaced Tyrone Corbin. Rudy Gay is thriving under Karl's system and DeMarcus Cousins is putting up superstar numbers. Cousins is a matchup nightmare for the undersized Suns and center Alex Len, who is just returning from an ankle injury.
|
03-25-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Memphis Grizzlies +2 |
|
111-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
Cleveland is hot winning 27 of its last 33. The Cavaliers are comfortably in second place in the Eastern Conference with little chance of moving up or down. The Cavs very well may be the best team in the East. But they should not be road chalk against Memphis. The Grizzlies also are playing well winning five of their last six, including the past three winning all five of these games by 11 or more points. The Grizzlies have the second-best record in the much stronger Western Conference, which is a surprise to some. The Grizzlies have a chip on their shoulder and want to prove themselves versus elite competition, which is what they face here. It's also a revenge spot for Memphis, which lost 105-91 on the road to the Cavaliers on Dec. 21 when it was missing Zach Randolph and had not traded for Jeff Green yet. Memphis has a strong home-court. The Grizzlies have won 27 of their 34 home games, while Cleveland is three games above .500 on the road - and that's playing in the much weaker Eastern Conference. The Grizzlies present match up problems for every team with their No. 2 ranked defense and physical front line. Cleveland gives up 45.4 points in the paint on the road, which ranks fourth from the bottom. No team scores more points inside than Memphis thanks to Randolph and Marc Gasol. Randolph is a double-double machine and is likely to be guarded by Kevin Love, a weak defender. The Cavaliers have been taking far more 3-pointers since acquiring gunner J.R. Smith. The Grizzlies hold foes to less than 33 percent shooting from 3-point range at FedEx Forum. That figure would rank No. 2 in the league if it included all of Memphis' games.
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03-25-15 |
Miami Heat +5 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
93-86 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
Expect the Heat to play hard in order to make amends for blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead last night on the road against the Bucks in an 89-88 loss. Milwaukee pulled out the victory on a 3-pointer by Khris Middleton at the buzzer. Miami is 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times when playing without rest. This is a crucial game for the Heat especially following that loss to Milwaukee as the Heat, Bucks and Celtics are all fighting for a playoff spot. The Heat are 0-2 on their current four-game road trip having lost to Oklahoma City, which plays extremely well at home, this past Sunday. Before these past two games, though, the Heat had been playing well having won three in a row defeating the Cavaliers, Trail Blazers and Nuggets. Miami may not have center Hassan Whiteside, who suffered a cut between two fingers against the Bucks and had to have 10 stiches. If he is able to play it would be a nice plus. But I like the Heat covering this number even if Whiteside doesn't play. Boston has a small front line without Jared Sullinger. The Heat wouldn't have problems matching up to the Celtics in the paint with Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley and Luol Deng. Dwayne Wade will be the best player on the court and he's been playing well. The Celtics are expected to get back point guard Isaiah Thomas, who has missed the past eight games because of a bad back. Boston went 5-3 in those games. Thomas is a streak shooter who figures to be rusty. He's also a ball hog so it's going to take time for the Celtics to get back in sync with him running things instead of Evan Turner.
|
03-25-15 |
Murray State +2 v. Old Dominion |
Top |
69-72 |
Loss |
-120 |
15 h 58 m |
Show
|
Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark. Old Dominion is overrated. The Monarchs are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times going against an opponent with a winning mark. Their star point guard, Trey Freeman, is limping on a sprained ankle. Even if Freeman were 100 percent, the Monarchs would be hard-pressed to match up against Murray State's strong backcourt. Against four common opponents - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Illinois State and UTEP - Old Dominion went 2-5 while Murray State went 4-0 winning each game by double-digits. Old Dominion is strong defensively, but Murray State can score on any team. The Racers put up 83 in their last game upsetting a top-40 defensive team, Tulsa, on the road.
|
03-24-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
Top |
117-127 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 15 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City has lost much of its star power and depth. That's not a good combination when laying a big number especially with a huge game on deck tomorrow night. But that's the situation the Thunder are in minus Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and now guard Andre Roberson, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday and will be out several weeks. The Thunder are playing well having won three in a row, including impressively beating hot Miami at home this past Sunday. This, though, is a flat spot for them especially when they play at San Antonio on Wednesday in a much more challenging matchup. The Lakers have lost nine of their last 11, but are off a 101-87 home victory against the 76ers this past Sunday. Quietly, the Lakers have been a huge money-maker this month cashing 11 of their last 14, including their last five road games. They have not lost by more than seven points during their last 14 games.
|
03-24-15 |
Miami (FL) v. Richmond -2 |
Top |
63-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 24 m |
Show
|
Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season.
Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts.
The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage.
The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover.
|
03-23-15 |
Illinois State +3.5 v. Old Dominion |
Top |
49-50 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player. Yet, the Monarchs are favored. What gives? Old Dominion is playing at home. That's what. The Monarchs own a 22-game home win streak at "The Ted," including going 18-0 this season. Still, Old Dominion shouldn't rate favorite status in this matchup. Illinois State has a winning road record. One of the Redbirds' road victories occurred against NCAA Tournament entrant Alabama-Birmingham, which defeated Old Dominion in a Conference USA game. A sell out isn't expected. The Monarchs averaged 7,132 fans during the regular season. They had around 4,700 fans for their first round NIT game and as of Saturday afternoon had only sold around 2,500 tickets for this game. NIT games don't excite the home faithful like NCAA Tournament games do. The Redbirds have covered in six of their last seven nonconference matchups. Old Dominion is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus foes with a winning record. Old Dominion suffered its worst defeat of the season - and lowest point production - in a 64-45 loss to Illinois State in the Paradise Jam on Nov. 23. The Monarchs never could figure out Illinois State's mixed zone defenses. They also were outrebounded by 11 boards. The Monarchs rank 241st in 3-point shooting and 245th in free throw percentage. The Redbirds hold foes to an average of 62.4 points per game. The Monarch's also may be missing their best player, junior point guard Trey Freeman. He leads the team in scoring and assists. Freeman, a first team All-Conference USA selection, sprained his ankle in practice this past Saturday and is questionable to play. If he does play he's unlikely to be 100 percent.
|
03-22-15 |
Michigan State v. Virginia -5 |
Top |
60-54 |
Loss |
-103 |
21 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country. Virginia is just as disciplined as Michigan State with a similar grind-it-out offense. The Cavaliers are plain better up and down the rotation especially with their best all-around player, Justin Anderson, having his timing and sea legs back since returning from a broken finger. Virginia won the always tough Atlantic Coast Conference. Its only defeats were to Duke, Louisville and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. Virginia has secretly been hoping for this matchup. The Cavaliers want to revenge last year's 61-59 loss to Michigan State in a Sweet 16 matchup. The Spartans lack the offensive firepower and go-to guy to successfully score on Virginia's dominant defense that gave up just 51. 2 points per game. The Cavaliers' fierce defense gets all the media attention, but they also ranked 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.
|
03-21-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 |
|
86-97 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
Both teams played last night. The Trail Blazers lost to the Magic and Memphis upset Dallas on the road by 11 points. The Grizzlies are better equipped to handle this matchup of teams playing without rest. The Trail Blazers are playing their fifth road game in seven days. Their weak bench is made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews. Memphis' depth has improved with Mike Conley and Vince Carter back. The Grizzlies are a much better team with Conley in the lineup. He had missed four games with an ankle injury until returning last night versus Dallas. Portland is not a good road team as evidenced by their 16-17 away mark, 15-18 ATS. Memphis has one of the strongest home courts in the league. The Trail Blazers rely heavily on LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Both played big minutes last night. The Grizzlies are a tough matchup for the Trail Blazers because they have excellent physical frontcourt defenders and Tony Allen is a defensive whiz who can defend Lillard. Memphis has won eight of the last nine in the series, covering seven of the past eight. They are 3-0 this season against the Trail Blazers.
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03-21-15 |
Chicago Bulls -2 v. Detroit Pistons |
Top |
91-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 44 m |
Show
|
The Bulls have been up and down. Now they are on an up cycle. They've won two in a row beating the Pacers and Raptors at home. Taj Gibson returned in last night's 16-point victory against the Raptors after missing the past 10 games with an elbow injury. All-Star guard Jimmy Butler could return tonight. Chicago is trying to earn the No. 2 seed in the East. The Bulls can't afford to slip against the lowly Pistons, losers of 11 of their last 12. Chicago is 20-14 on the road. Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. The Bulls are not a great team. But they are still several tiers above Detroit even without Butler. Chicago is 9-6 minus Butler. The Bulls look much better when not going against elite Western Conference opponents. The Pistons are definitely a team they can handle. The Pistons are a dead team. They lost 94-83 in their last game to the 76ers this past Wednesday. The Pistons are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA and are far less effective inside with Greg Monroe out. Detroit was outscored 40-20 in the paint by the 76ers. Monroe missed that game with a strained knee and is doubtful to play against the Bulls.
|
03-21-15 |
NC State +9.5 v. Villanova |
|
71-68 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 16 m |
Show
|
Nothing against Villanova. The Wildcats are very good. I just don't believe North Carolina State is getting enough respect here. The Wolfpack don't have any major weaknesses. They are a tough ACC team and have proven resilient coming from a late 14-point second half deficit to beat LSU in their opening round NCAA Tournament game. The Wolfpack have defeated Duke and won road games against Louisville and North Carolina. An added plus for the Wolfpack is the return of Anthony Barber, who is averaging 17.5 points during his last 11 games. Villanova may not be as sharp coming off an easy win against an easy first round tournament opponent, Lafayette.
|
03-21-15 |
UAB v. UCLA -5.5 |
|
75-92 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
UCLA is coming on. The Bruins' young talent has come together winning five of their last six with their only defeat coming to Arizona in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament.
Back in November, when they still were far from peaking, the Bruins beat the Blazers by 12 in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas.
UAB isn't very good and the Blazers are going to have problems coming down from their monster upset of Iowa State. The Blazers were lucky to win the Conference USA Tournament, which they hosted, or they wouldn't have received a bid to the NCAA Tournament having finished fourth in the conference during the regular season.
|
03-20-15 |
Dayton v. Providence -3 |
Top |
66-53 |
Loss |
-109 |
33 h 27 m |
Show
|
Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. Dunn is a great all-around guard, who also was the co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Henton led the Big East in scoring and was seventh in rebounding. Dayton ranked 300th in the country in rebounding. The Flyers, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference matchups, don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6 in their rotation. Providence, by contrast, has four players who are 6-8 or taller, including two 7-footers. This number doesn't even include Henton, who is 6-6. Dayton needed home-court advantage to reach this level nipping Boise State, a team from what was a weak Mountain West Conference this year, by one point this past Wednesday. The Flyers came from nine points down to accomplish the feat. I doubt the Flyers would have defeated Boise State if they weren't on their home floor. Providence has covered the last nine times it has played on a neutral floor. The Friars are the better team and catch Dayton, which doesn't have a strong bench, playing for the fifth time in eight days.
|
03-20-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
112-101 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
The Grizzlies have had two full days to stew about their loss to Detroit this past Tuesday. The Pistons ended a 10-game losing streak with that victory. Dallas isn't good at home - covering 42 percent of its games at American Airlines Center - has not fared well versus elite competition and is 8-22-2 ATS in its last 32 games against Western Conference foes. The Mavericks have also failed to cover four of the last five times when laying three or more points. The Grizzlies are too physical for Dallas. Memphis ranks No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. The Grizzlies also rank in the top 10 in forcing turnovers. The Mavericks lack the inside muscle to match up well against the Grizzlies. This was evident during their last meeting. That occurred on Jan. 27 in Dallas with the Grizzlies cruising to a 109-90 victory. There's a chance the Grizzlies get back point guard Mike Conley, who has missed the last four games with a sprained ankle. Conley's absence has hurt the Grizzlies. But I still like them in this spot regardless of Conley's status. If he does suit up it's a nice bonus.
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03-20-15 |
Davidson +2 v. Iowa |
|
52-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 21 m |
Show
|
Davidson reminds me of Wisconsin except for being smaller. The Wildcats average 79.9 points a game, sixth-highest in the country. They ranked in the top 17 in both 2-point shooting percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Only Wisconsin had a lower turnover percentage than Davidson. Like Wisconsin, Davidson has that rare combination of shooting well from anyplace on the court while not turning the ball over. They are smart and unselfish just like the Badgers. The Wisconsin comparison is valid and significant because Iowa went 0-2 versus the Badgers losing by an average of 21.5 points. The Hawkeyes don't shoot nearly as well as Davidson. They ranked 213th in 2-point shooting percentage and 217th in 3-point percentage. They also were 68 spots behind Davidson in turnover percentage. Sometimes a late loss can actually spark a team, or at least shake their complacency. That might turn out to be the case with Davidson, which had won 10 in a row before losing in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. The Wildcats won the regular season A-10 title so a letdown in the conference tournament was understandable. The Wildcats have a strong history when stepping up covering 14 of the last 17 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They also have covered during their last seven non-conference games. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
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03-20-15 |
Cal-Irvine v. Louisville -8 |
|
55-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 1 m |
Show
|
I don't see Cal Irvine, in its first NCAA Tournament game ever, holding up against the constant pressure of Louisville's outstanding defense. The Anteaters are extremely susceptible to having a spurt or two take them out of the game. Rick Pitinio has a tremendous track record in the NCAA Tournament with Louisville. The Cardinals have reached the Final Four in two of the past three years capturing the crown in 2013. Louisville is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 NCAA Tournament games. The Cardinals are battled tested coming from the ACC. They hold opponents to less than 60 points a game. The Anteaters are inexperienced and haven't faced anywhere near the competition the Cardinals have coming from the Big West Conference.
|
03-19-15 |
Eastern Washington +8 v. Georgetown |
|
74-84 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 23 m |
Show
|
Georgetown is nothing special and has a recent history of playing poorly in the NCAA Tournament. Eastern Washington is a dangerous underdog because the Eagles have that rare combination of making 3-pointers and getting to the rim. They are tough to prepare against. I see them causing plenty of problems for the Hoyas. The Eagles are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. They beat Indiana on the road and buried Texas Southern, an NCAA Tournament team, by 24 points. Sparked by guard Tyler Harvey, the Eagles are the third-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.3 points per game. Harvey shoots 43.5 percent from 3-point range and also is an 85 percent foul shooter. He has scored in double figures in every game this season except one and knows how to get to the foul line. A key in this matchup is Eastern Washington's long-range shooting. The Eagles have the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the country of any team that shot more than 700 3-pointers on the season. They average 24.7 treys a game. Yet they rank ninth in the nation in 3-point percentage. Georgetown ranks 267th in defending against 3-pointers. So even if Eastern Washington were to fall behind they still have a strong capability to pull off a back-door cover if needed. The Eagles are a better free throw shooting team than the Hoyas and have an active rebounder in 6-foot-8 Venky Jois, who helps combat Georgetown's height advantage.
|
03-19-15 |
Stephen Austin v. Utah -6.5 |
|
50-57 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 37 m |
Show
|
Don't get caught up in any hype about Stephen F. Austin being a Cinderella team. Utah isn't taking the Lumberjacks lightly after Stephen F. Austin upset VCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. It's easy to forget the Utes were a top 10 team in February. They haven't fallen that far down. They are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games and have too much size and talent for the Lumberjacks, who don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6. Stephen F. Austin is a prolific scoring team, but Utah ranked 13th in the country in shooting percentage at 48.5 percent. The Lumberjacks can't match the skill set of 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and guard Delon Wright. They also can't match up to the size of Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, another 7-footer. By contrast, the Lumberjacks' leading rebounder is guard Thomas Walkup. The Lumberjacks played two NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play this season - Baylor and Xavier. They lost by 16 and 18 points in those games.
|
03-18-15 |
Gardner-Webb +12 v. Colorado |
Top |
78-87 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games. Colorado is going to have to go through an adjustment to deal with Gardner-Webb's up-tempo pace. The Bulldogs love to fire up 3-pointers averaging more than 23 per game. They make 8.1 per game. Colorado is 5-8 when its opponent connects on at least eight 3-pointers. The Bulldogs will be minus Jerome Hill, their leading scorer and rebounder. Hill had not been shooting well, though, going just 8-for-32 from the field during the last two games. Colorado isn't motivated for this game playing in the College Basketball Invitational, a third tier tournament. The Buffaloes have a short rotation made shorter by their leading scorer, senior guard Askia Booker, skipping the tournament because he didn't deem it worth his time. That's great for team morale. The Buffaloes are down to seven normal rotation players because sophomore forward Dustin Thomas, who was averaging nearly 17 minutes per game, won't play either because he is transferring to another school. Booker's loss is huge as he ran the team. Only three players in the country had a higher percentage of shots their team was involved in than Booker. He accounted for 35.9 percent of the shots Colorado took.
|
03-17-15 |
Orlando Magic +11.5 v. Houston Rockets |
Top |
94-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 35 m |
Show
|
Orlando is a lottery team that has lost eight of its last 10. But the Magic excel in situations exactly like this, partly because the marketplace usually doesn't care for them. Orlando has covered 17 of the past 22 times versus foes with a winning home mark. The Magic is 6-1 ATS the past seven times they've been double-digit road 'dogs. Houston is a bit fat after an impressive road upset win against the Clippers two days ago. The Rockets have more challenging tasks following this matchup hosting improved Denver and playoff-contender Phoenix. There is no reason for the Rockets to go all out against a non-conference lottery foe. Orlando is vulnerable from 3-point range, which is Houston's strength. However, the Rockets are in a long range shooting slump making just 27.5 percent from beyond the arc during their last five games compared to hitting nearly 35 percent before then. The Magic have improved a great deal defensively once they got rid of Jacque Vaughn. They are off an embarrassing 123-108 loss to the Cavaliers this past Sunday. This is what Magic coach James Borrego said following that loss to Cleveland. "Tonight (Sunday) was not a great defensive effort. It was probably due to Cleveland and partly our effort, our execution defensively. But we are a defensive team, and I'll continue to say that. Our identity is on the defensive end." Statistics back up what Borrego says. Even giving up 123 points to the Cavaliers, Orlando still is surrendering nearly three fewer points per game at 99.5 since Borrego replaced Vaughn, while forcing nearly three more turnovers per game, too. The Rockets historically have trouble with Orlando, too. The Magic have covered nine of the past 10 in the series, including the last four in Houston. The Rockets also may be without starting point guard Patrick Beverley, who is dealing with an elbow injury.
|
03-17-15 |
Central Michigan v. Louisiana Tech -6 |
|
79-89 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
First off, this is not an easy trip logistically for Central Michigan getting to Ruston, La., on short notice. The Chippewas don't have a senior nor did they face a tournament team on the road this season. They had a losing spread record away from home, including losing straight-up three times as road chalk.
Central Michigan lacks the interior defense, too, to slow down Louisiana Tech ranking 301st defending against two-pointers.
Louisiana Tech is anchored by three senior starters who want desperately to go to Madison Square Garden after falling in the quarterfinals during last year's NIT. Tech is very strong at home having won 29 in a row.
Central Michigan isn't a strong enough offensive rebounding team to take advantage of Louisiana Tech's rebounding weakness.
|
03-17-15 |
James Madison +6 v. USC Upstate |
|
72-73 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 9 m |
Show
|
An off-day in their conference tournament and playing on the road. Those are two key reasons why the James Madison Dukes are underdogs to South Carolina State in an opening round College Insider Tournament game. A couple of books opened the Spartans as 2 1/2-point favorites. Early betting, though, has pushed the Spartans up to this mid range. I thought the books opened a wrong favorite, so I'm happy to fade the marketplace and back the underdog in this price range. Yes, James Madison laid an egg in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament losing its opening game to fifth-seeded Hofstra. The Dukes simply had an off day. Three of their players had horrible shooting games. It happens. It can't take away that the Dukes tied a school record for most single-season victories in CAA play, a conference stronger than South Carolina Upstate's Atlantic Sun. The Spartans didn't play anybody. That's why they have a 23-11 record. Prior to losing to Hofstra, James Madison had won six of its last seven. The Dukes are 6-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. They have covered in eight of their last 10 road contests.
|
03-16-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers +18 v. Golden State Warriors |
Top |
105-108 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
The Lakers actually have been playing excellent defense during their last six games holding foes to an average of 91.6 points per game during this span. LA isn't winning, but is staying close and covering spreads. The Lakers have not lost by double digits during their past 12 games and are 7-0 ATS following a straight-up loss. They also have covered in their last four road games. The Lakers are going with a lot of youngsters. So they are one of the few teams with fresh legs at this late stage of the season. Stronger foes also are resting key players, or at least reducing their minutes when they play the Lakers. Golden State has one of its bigger games of the season on deck when it hosts Atlanta on Wednesday. It's a revenge spot for the Warriors and a pivotal matchup in deciding the NBA's best record. So I'm not expecting big minutes from their starters, or an all-out intense effort. At the very least, the back-door should be wide open. The Warriors have had trouble gearing up for lottery teams failing to cover eight of the past nine times versus below .500 opponents. Golden State plays five games during the next eight days. So this figures to be a spot where the Warriors will be reducing starter's minutes.
|
03-16-15 |
Toronto Raptors +5.5 v. Indiana Pacers |
|
117-98 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
Toronto was starting to play better until getting blown out at home last night by Portland. The Raptors have a solid bench. They are 9-4 ATS the past 13 times when playing without rest.
Indiana is a different type of team than Portland. The Raptors match up much better against Indiana. Toronto has won the past three meetings in the series, incuding both times this season with one of the victories coming by 13 at Indiana.
The Pacers are thin in the backcourt. I'm expecting Kyle Lowry to play much better than he did in the loss to Portland this past Sunday. George Hill is an underrated point guard, but he's not Damian Lillard.
|
03-14-15 |
Hawaii v. Cal-Irvine -2 |
Top |
58-67 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 50 m |
Show
|
UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis. Hawaii doesn't have enough time to come down after that surprising win. It's also the first time Hawaii has reached a title game since 2002. The Warriors aren't ready to post back-to-back upsets. They are 3-9 in conference tournament games going back to 2005 and 1-4 ATS the past five times they've played foes with a winning record. The Anteaters are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they've met a foe with a winning record. They also are 2-0 versus Hawaii this season winning 75-60 at home and 78-72 on the road.
|
03-14-15 |
Detroit Pistons +8 v. Utah Jazz |
Top |
85-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Pistons were blown out last night by the Trail Blazers losing by 19 points. Detroit is 6-0 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS the next game when they didn't cover the spread during their previous game. Detroit can match up to the Jazz's tall front line with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, both of whom are having solid seasons. Drummond has pulled down 20 or more rebounds in three of the last five games. The Pistons would catch a major break if Utah center Rudy Gobert, who is having a breakout season, can't play after tweaking his ankle during the Jazz's last game this past Thursday. The line is high here because Utah is playing its finest ball winning nine of its last 11. Detroit has lost nine in a row to fall out of playoff contention. This is the Pistons' final game of their road swing. I see a bounce back effort after last night's embarrassing defeat. This is the fourth time in their last 10 games the Jazz are laying more than seven points. They are 0-3 ATS the previous three times. Utah is 26th in scoring. The Jazz lack the offense to lay a big number. The Pistons can stay with the Jazz. In their last eight road games, the Pistons have only lost by more than seven points twice. During this span, the Pistons beat the Hornets by 28 points, lost by three to the Pelicans, lost by five to the Pacers, lost by four to the Wizards and lost by seven to the Warriors.
|
03-14-15 |
Brooklyn Nets -5 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
|
94-87 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
With their season on the brink, I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Nets can cover this mid-range number against the 76ers. This may be the only time all season where the 76ers are fat and happy after coming from 18 points down at home to beat the road-weary Kings, 114-107, last night. Despite putting up those many points, the 76ers still rank last in the league in scoring and shooting percentage. The Kings rank 28th defensively. The Nets rate a respectable 17th in points allowed per game. While the 76ers' roster is littered with unknowns, the Nets have star power with Deron Williams (who finally started shooting better), Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez, who is playing better. The prideful veteran Nets not only have revenge for a loss to the 76ers in their last meeting, but their season is on the line here. Brooklyn has lost five in a row to fall 3 1/2 games back of the last playoff spot in the East with 19 games remaining on the regular season schedule. A loss here to the 76ers, arguably the worst team in the NBA, would be the end. The Nets have age on them, but they've also been idle the past two days. Philly, on the other hand, is playing for the third time in four days and without rest. Brooklyn has covered five of its last seven road contests and has taken care of business against bad teams going 11-5 ATS the past 16 times playing foes with a winning percentage below .400.
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03-13-15 |
Atlanta Hawks -5 v. Phoenix Suns |
Top |
96-87 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 16 m |
Show
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The Hawks have little to play for these days with the best record in the Eastern Conference all but clinched. That's been evident when the Hawks rested starters in a loss to the 76ers this past Saturday and during a 115-102 blowout loss two nights ago to the lowly Nuggets. When the Hawks want to play, though, they are an elite team. That was the case a week ago when the beat the surging Cavaliers by nine points. I see the Hawks wanting to get back on track after that embarrassing defeat to the Nuggets. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS the past nine times following a defeat and has covered 73 percent of its last 27 road games. Since Feb. 28, the Suns have played three opponents with winning record. In those games they lost by 25 to the Spurs, by 10 to the Cavaliers and by 18 to the Warriors. The losses to the Spurs and Warriors came at home where the Suns have dropped four of six. Phoenix also might be missing Brandon Knight again. He's dealing with a sprained ankle that caused him to sit out Phoenix's last game this past Wednesday, a victory against the Timberwolves. The Suns lack the size to hurt Atlanta inside and they give up the second-highest 3-point shooting percentage when playing at home at 38.5 percent. Sparked by sharp-shooter Kyle Korver, the Hawks own the second-best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA at 38.5 percent.
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03-13-15 |
Penn State v. Purdue -5 |
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59-64 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
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Purdue can't afford a loss here being a bubble team. So the Boilermakers won't lack for motivation.
The timing is excellent for Purdue, which is rested while Penn State is playing for the fourth time in six days and third time in three days.
Purdue has won nine of its last 12 games.
Penn State is too dependent on D.J. Newbill. That's going to catch up to the Nittany Lions here going against the best team in the Big Ten in defensive field goal percentage.
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03-12-15 |
Cal Poly v. UC-Santa Barbara -3 |
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50-54 |
Win
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100 |
16 h 38 m |
Show
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Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Conference Tournament riding a lot of momentum winning its last five games. During this span, the Gauchos have defeated regular-season champion UC-Davis, UC Irvine, Hawaii and Cal Poly in their last game. The Gauchos defeated the Mustangs, 64-56, at home this past Saturday. This isn't a surprise. The Gauchos have a better record and more talent than Cal Poly. Don't look for the second-seeded Gauchos to overlook seventh-seeded Cal Poly. Just last year, the Mustangs buried the Gauchos by 31 points after losing to Santa Barbara five days before the tournament. History won't repeat itself.
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03-12-15 |
Chicago State v. Seattle -5.5 |
Top |
45-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 52 m |
Show
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Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas. Seattle tied for being the top defense in the Western Athletic Conference, while the Cougars are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation averaging 58.4 points per game while shooting less than 38 percent from the floor. They also are not a good free throw shooting team either. The Redhawks' strength is their backcourt where Isiah Umipig averages 16.7 points per game and Jarell Flora averages 14.2. Both average more than Chicago State's leading scorer. The Cougars, in fact, have only one player averaging more than nine points a game. I can't see offensively-challenged Chicago State staying without double digits of Seattle.
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03-11-15 |
Colorado -3 v. Oregon State |
Top |
78-71 |
Win
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100 |
13 h 11 m |
Show
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Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games. The Beavers don't have the size and bench to beat Colorado. They have been outrebounded in 13 consecutive games. The Beavers also haven't shown they can win away outside of Corvallis dropping 11 of their past 13 away games. Colorado is coming on as Josh Scott, hurt earlier, is playing well. Sparked by Scott, the Buffaloes have averaged 51.3 percent from the floor during the last three games. This is clearly a case of two schools heading in opposite directions.
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03-11-15 |
Chicago Bulls -6 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
|
104-95 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
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Yes, the Bulls are without their top three scorers although Derrick Rose wasn't having a great season.
But Chicago still has enough depth and talent to cover this number against the 76ers. Philly has been idle since Saturday when it upset the Hawks. That's too long for the 76ers to sit. They are 0-5 ATS the last five times when playing on three or more days rest.
The Bulls had to play at the Spurs, who are playing better now, and then hosted the Grizzlies in their last game two days ago. The Bulls played well, but were too short-handed to beat Memphis. Now Chicago steps way down in class and will be highly focused trying to get the No. 2 seed in the East in what is now a circle-the-wagons game for them following three consecutive losses.
The 76ers haven't won consecutive games since January. I don't see the 76ers ending that streak here.
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03-11-15 |
TCU v. Kansas State -1.5 |
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67-65 |
Loss |
-112 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
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Kansas State has been up and down all season. Now the Wildcats realize they need to win this Big 12 Tournament in order to go to the Big Dance. That's a tough order, but I see the Wildcats being up to the challenge for this first-round matchup. They are 5-3 versus the top seeds and own home victories against Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor. This isn't a home game, but playing in Kansas City does mean more Kansas State fans than TCU fans. The Horned Frogs have dropped three straight. Their only consistent scoring threat is guard Kyle Anderson. Kansas State has talent and potential. TCU isn't in good form and doesn't shoot well from the free throw line or from long distance.
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