Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
The spot couldn't be better for Denver. The Nuggets have been idle for four days and catch the aging Mavericks off an overtime road victory against Sacramento last night. All of Dallas' starters logged at least 36 minutes against the Kings with four of them seeing at least 38 minutes of action. Big man Tyson Chandler played nearly 44 minutes. |
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01-14-15 | Illinois State -3.5 v. Indiana State | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
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01-13-15 | Dallas Mavericks -4.5 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
Dallas hasn't lost three games in a row all season and I don't see the Mavericks losing here. The Mavericks are 19-2 in their last 21 regular-season games versus Sacramento. |
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01-12-15 | Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 113-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a bad matchup for the Nets, who are short in the backcourt without injured Deron Williams and don't have the inside talent to contain Dwight Howard. |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -105 | 154 h 51 m | Show |
The Broncos rate a level higher than the Colts. Throw in a rested, home-field advantage and I see Denver winning this game by double-digits. |
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01-10-15 | Dayton -8.5 v. Fordham | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage. |
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01-09-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have to win sometime don't they? They are mired in a 13-game losing streak minus key players Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin. In addition, veteran point guard Mo Williams turned an ankle in the Wolves' narrow loss to the Suns two nights and may not play. |
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01-07-15 | Utah Jazz +10.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 97-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm going to take this many points with Utah after word that Trey Burks is healthy enough to play after missing the last game due to illness. Utah has covered seven of its last eight road games and catch Chicago in a flat spot. |
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01-07-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
I'll take the points with a good Western Conference team versus a good Eastern Conference team. Memphis ranks sixth defensively and is shooting 46.6 percent from the floor. Atlanta ranks fifth defensively and shoots 46.7 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies are 19-1 the past 20 times when outshooting their opponent. |
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01-06-15 | Phoenix Suns -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
These have been two play-on teams, but I believe the Suns get it done here in a revenge spot and off one of their most impressive victories of the season. |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I give Dallas plenty of credit. But I'm not sold on them. They lack talent on defense and are in a position they haven't been in during their present regime - being asked to cover a touchdown in the playoffs with all the pressure and Super Bowl hype surrounding them. It's rare to get this many points with a defense as good as Detroit and with as many good skill position players it has. The key for Dallas is DeMarco Murray. His running sets up Tony Romo and keeps the Cowboys' vulnerable defense off the field. Murray led the NFL in rushing, but he is playing with a surgically repaired hand and had a full workload during the regular season. The Cowboys are playing on short rest this week. The Lions have the No. 1 run defense giving up less than 70 yards on the ground. Detroit also ranks No. 2 in total defense. Only two teams gave up fewer than the 17.6 points the Lions give up per game. The Lions' secondary is vastly improved. Matthew Stafford didn't have an outstanding season, but he's a far above average quarterback and has one of the best wide receiving tandems in the NFL with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Johnson is healthy again making him arguably the best wide receiver in the league. When the teams met last year, Johnson burned the Cowboys for 14 catches for 329 yards operating against the same cornerbacks Dallas has now. Detroit won that game. Reggie Bush gives Stafford an edge runner and dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
OK, factor in three points for home field advantage for Pittsburgh. Le'Veon Bell isn't going to play. Now does that make these teams even? I say no. The points are worth laying because the Steelers are in much better current form and have the superior quarterback. Baltimore's offense is in a slump, its offensive line is banged-up and its defensive backfield highly vulnerable due to injuries that have wiped out five cornerbacks. Since beating Pittsburgh at home in Week 2, the Ravens have yet to defeat a foe with a winning record going 0-5. Ben Roethlisberger is having his finest season. The Steelers average 27.2 points, 411.1 yards and 301.6 yards passing per game. The Ravens can't match that especially on the road where they have a history of playing much worse. Roethlisberger lit them up six touchdown passes in a 43-23 win in early November at Heinz Field. Even without Bell, Roethlisberger has enough weapons to take advantage of the Ravens' battered, vulnerable secondary. Note, too, that Bell was averaging just 2.7 yards per rush in his last three games worn down by 373 touches. The Steelers have three running backs with fresh legs who will be made to look good by the Ravens' safeties committing to helping out in the passing game rather than moving up in the box. Joe Flacco has had one good quarter in his last three games. He needs a good ground attack to be effective. That's not likely to happen. The Steelers have gotten healthier on defense while the Ravens will be without left tackle Eugene Monroe. Baltimore's only decent running back, Justin Forsett, is worn down after a career-high 235 carries. He had a combined 115 rushing attempts the past three seasons. Forsett hasn't broken the 72-yard rushing mark in three of the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has held nine of its last 10 foes to fewer than 100 yards on the ground. |
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01-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Minnesota Timberwolves +1 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Much is made of Minnesota's many injuries. But Utah is down to its fourth-string shooting guard with Alec Burks, Rodney Hood and Patrick Christopher all out. The Jazz also lost center Enes Kanter last night in their 98-92 home loss to the Hawks. Kanter suffered an ankle injury leaving Utah thin up front, too, along with the backcourt. |
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01-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -4 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are back on track following their 95-87 home win against the Spurs this past Tuesday. Memphis doesn't want to give that great win right back with a loss against the lowly Lakers. Memphis ranks fifth defensively giving up 12 points fewer per game than the Lakers, who rank last defensively. The Grizzlies remain without Zach Randolph, but still dominate inside against the Lakers with Marc Gasol and at point guard with Mike Conley, who quietly is having an outstanding season. Conley has taken advantage of the Lakers' weakness at point guard to average 22 points and shoot 56.4 percent from the field in the last three games versus LA. The Grizzlies have defeated the Lakers in eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past four. They beat the Lakers on Nov. 26 by six points when the Lakers played pretty well. I don't think the Lakers will be that sharp here coming off a 111-103 road win at Denver. Kobe Bryant may have had his best game of the season in that victory. Bryant, though, is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor. |
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01-02-15 | Oklahoma State v. Washington -6 | Top | 30-22 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 52 m | Show |
The line is cheap here. Oklahoma State freshman quarterback Mason Rudolph is making just his third start. He'll be facing a defense that has three All-Americans and creates tremendous pressure recording 49 sacks, 27 forced turnovers and nine defensive/return touchdowns. The Huskies should easily control the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma State's offensive line isn't very good surrendering a Big-12 high 37 sacks. The Cowboys also will be without Tyreek Hill, who averaged 159 all-purpose yards per game and had the huge 92-yard punt return for a touchdown that set up the overtime victory against Oklahoma on Dec. 6. That victory allowed the Cowboys to reach this bowl game. Hill was kicked off the team because of being arrested and charged with punching and choking his pregnant girlfriend. Prior to the win against Oklahoma, their regular-season finale, the Cowboys had lost five in a row all by 21 or more points. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. I want no part of them especially with Hill's violent action against his girlfriend tarnishing the Oklahoma victory taking away much of that good feeling. Without Hill, Rudolph's main ground threat is pedestrian Desmond Roland, who averages just 3.8 yards per carry and didn't rush for 100 yards in a game all season. Washington enters the matchup in good form having defeated Oregon State, 37-13, and Washington State, 31-13. Huskies quarterback Cyler Miles has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has passed for four touchdowns during the last two games. Junior Shaq Thompson is the best two-way football player in the country, starring at both running back and linebacker. He's a potential first-round pick if he declares for the draft. He's a huge player for Huskies. He averages 7.5 yards rushing and led the nation with four defensive touchdowns and four fumble recoveries. |
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12-30-14 | Louisville v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
I want the SEC team going for me against the ACC team. I don't trust Louisville's quarterback situation and I like Georgia on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs averaged 41.7 points, best in the SEC. Nick Chubb is an elite runner rushing for 1,281 yards and scoring 14 touchdowns, 12 of which came on the ground. He ran for at least 100 yards and a touchdown during each of his last seven starts. Todd Gurley would have been hard-pressed to do better. Georgia has a reliable quarterback in Hutson Mason, who has a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Louisville could be down to third-string quarterback Kyle Bolin, who stepped in when second-string quarterback Reggie Bonnafon suffered a knee injury in the regular-season finale versus Kentucky. Bolin played well, but there is quite a difference from Kentucky to Georgia. The Bulldogs have the No. 2 pass defense in the country. They shut out Missouri and Troy while holding Auburn to seven points. Auburn averaged 35.8 points even being held to a touchdown by Georgia. |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 58 h 26 m | Show |
This is my NFC Game of the Year and here is why: The Panthers are playing their best ball down the stretch inspired by Cam Newton, who is back running and not just sitting in the pocket, and getting much improved play from both their offensive and defensive lines. Their secondary also has gotten faster with a switch to younger defensive backs. Carolina is giving up an average of 13.3 points during its last three games in beating the Saints, Buccaneers and Browns. Carolina also has a strong history under Ron Rivera in December going 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS. New England is the only team with more December victories during this span. The Falcons aren't nearly good enough to lay this many points in a winner-take-all division setting. They can't rush the passer and their secondary took a hit last week with the loss of safety William Moore. The Panthers can key on Matt Ryan, who is playing behind a makeshift offensive line and lacking a ground attack made worse with Steven Jackson not likely to play. |
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12-28-14 | NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins -5.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -115 | 93 h 28 m | Show | |
The Jets played their Super Bowl for Rex Ryan last Sunday and nearly upset the Patriots. I don't see New York having the motivation in this meaningless matchup to put forth a second consecutive strong effort especially visiting sunny South Florida. Without a strong game, the Jets can't stay close on the scoreboard. Geno Smith is just a killer for the Jets with his many mistakes and turnovers. Smith isn't going to have Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and probably is going to be missing Percy Harvin, too. The Dolphins have a strong defense. They came very close to making the playoffs. Miami is 8-7. If not for late blown leads against three playoff teams - Packers, Lions and Broncos - Miami would be sitting at 11-4 and this line would be much higher. Ryan Tannehill is having his strongest season. The Jets give up more than 25 points a game with a battered, overmatched secondary. There's a class difference here. The Dolphins are unified with Joe Philbin returning as head coach, being at home and catching the Jets at an opportune time. (Editor's note: Long-time pro Stephen Nover is heating up as he goes for his 19th winning NFL season in the last 21 years. Stephen is 7-1 the past two weeks on his NFL premium and free plays and has his NFC Game of the Year going Sunday.) |
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12-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. NY Giants | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
The Eagles are flawed, but they still are the better team here. The key is will they play hard? Knowing Chip Kelly the Eagles will. Kelly is taking this game serious. He could have given Matt Barkley a chance, but he won't. |
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12-28-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +6 | 44-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
Dallas doesn't need this game and figures to be resting banged-up Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray for much of the game. Without those two Dallas can't play ball control and protect their vulnerable defense, which has a talent deficiency. The Redskins have the skill position talent at receiver and running back to take advantage. Robert Griffin III and the rest of the Redskins received a huge jolt of confidence with last week's upset win against the Eagles. The Redskins will be motivated for this long-standing division rivalry matchup. They have covered the past four years hosting Dallas. Jobs are at stake for many of the Redskins. They should be hard here while the Cowboys are in a letdown spot having ended their four-year playoff drought by burying the Colts last week. |
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12-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 v. Houston Texans | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Houston isn't strong enough to lay double-digits with fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum, who is 1-8 as a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Jaguars have shown a respectable defense and a no-quit attitude under defensive-minded Gus Bradley. Only four teams have more sacks than Jacksonville. Sure Houston is still alive for a playoff spot - albeit a long shot - but Jacksonville also has motivation. This is a division rivalry made more intense by many of the Jacksonville players close ties to Texas. The Jaguars have revenge and extra preparation and rest time having played last Thursday. They have covered in three of the last four meetings with the Texans. The Jaguars are extremely young on offense starting six rookies, including quarterback Blake Bortles. But these young players have some experience now and fresher legs. Bortles has cut back on his dreadful number of turnovers getting picked off just twice in the last four games on 140 attempts with one coming on a desperate fourth down pass against Baltimore. |
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12-27-14 | Southern Utah +19 v. UNLV | Top | 45-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here. Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games. UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. |
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12-27-14 | Miami (Fla) v. South Carolina +3.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show |
Flat out wrong favorite here. South Carolina has the stronger pedigree, is the better team and plays in the toughest conference in the country. The Gamecocks have won their bowl games during each of the past three seasons, including defeating Wisconsin by 10 points last year. Miami has been to just one bowl game during Al Golden's three previous seasons - and that was a 25-point loss to Louisville last season. The Hurricanes have lost during their past four bowl appearances. The Hurricanes are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. They have lost nine of their last 17 lined games by double-digits and finished the regular season on a three-game losing streak averaging less than 21 points a game during this span. South Carolina certainly has had a disappointing year. No getting around that, but the Gamecocks are more dangerous than their record indicates having lost four games by seven points or fewer while playing in the toughest conference in the land. South Carolina has the better coach with Steve Spurrier and its offense has more pop with dangerous wideout Pharoh Cooper. The Hurricanes' offense has gone downhill and they continue to commit too many penalties. |
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12-26-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 107-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
No team has been hotter than Atlanta, which has won 14 of 15. The Hawks have proven they can beat elite competition, too, reeling off five straight victories with those wins coming against the Bulls, Cavaliers, Rockets, Mavericks and Clippers. The first four of those victories were achieved on the road. Atlanta rallied from a 13-point deficit to knock off the Clippers on Tuesday in its last game. I see a letdown for the Hawks as they finally step down in class. The two teams meet again tomorrow night in Milwaukee so it's not a kill spot either for the Hawks. The Bucks should be fired-up after holding a 50-minute players-only meeting following their last game, a 108-101 home loss to the Hornets. Atlanta has been playing outstanding defense, but the Bucks have reached triple digits in 12 of their past 14 games. They are shooting 49.9 percent from the field this month, best in the NBA. The Bucks have covered 12 of 17 road games this season and have the highest scoring bench in the league. That puts them in line for at least a back-door cover if the Hawks play better than expected. |
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12-25-14 | Golden State Warriors +2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Golden State is the better team and the set up is right for the Warriors. The Warriors led by 29 points when they rolled past the Clippers, 121-104, in their first meeting in early November. They are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 Western Conference matchups. Golden State is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and also has a top-five offense. No other NBA team is in the top-five offensively and defensively. The Warriors have David Lee back and will be highly motivated following a shocking loss in its last game this past Tuesday against the Lakers. Note that game was played at Staples Center where this matchup is. So the Warriors are rested. The Clippers aren't, though. This is their third game in four days. They've been at San Antonio and had to fly in from Atlanta where they played two nights ago. This makes their third time zone in four nights. Golden State has won and covered 75 percent of the time this season in the 12 games it has played against teams with a winning record. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS the last six times when they faced an opponent with an above .600 winning percentage. Contrast this with the Clippers who are 4-7 SU, 2-9 ATS when facing foes above .500 and are 1-6 ATS when taking on foes with an above .600 winning percentage. The Clippers also have failed to cover 13 of their last 18 home games. |
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12-25-14 | George Washington +5.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go. Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor. George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone. |
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12-24-14 | Fresno State +2.5 v. Rice | 6-30 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
Rice is in bad form getting blown out by Marshall 41-14 and by Louisiana Tech 76-31 in two of its last three games. The Owls gave up the last 41 points in their loss to Louisiana Tech, which was their last game. That's not a good way to enter a bowl game. Rice also was blown out by Mississippi State, 44-7, in its bowl game last season. Fresno State has played well for the most part since an 0-3 start. The Bulldogs have much to prove with a poor bowl history and being the only under .500 team playing in a bowl game. The Bulldogs played the stronger schedule, have a talent edge and I see them motivated and getting the job done. It's a plus for the Bulldogs to have played at Aloha Stadium - with the many distractions of being in the islands - during the last two seasons. |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 136 h 15 m | Show | |
Bruce Arians has done a masterful job coaching the Cardinals up this season, but he's drawing dead here because of his quarterback situation. Seattle has gotten healthy on defense. The result is the Seahawks' dominant defense of last season is back as good as ever. The Cardinals can't compete against it down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who doesn't have the ability. Since Carson Palmer went down, the Cardinals have only managed four touchdowns in five games. They lack a ground game to take the pressure off Lindley and Larry Fitzgerald hasn't been 100 percent. Arizona would be hard-pressed to put up points against a mediocre defense let alone the top one in the league right now. Seattle has allowed just 27 points during the last four weeks. Seattle is peaking, playing its best ball winning and covering its last four games, including defeating these same Cardinals, 19-3, when Arizona had Drew Stanton at quarterback. Stanton is bad. But Lindley is even worse. Seattle is 18-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record. Russell Wilson has the mobility to escape Arizona's pass rush and make big plays with his feet and arm. He's also very good at not turning the ball over. He's accounted for six touchdowns in the last four games with no interceptions. The Seahawks can wear Arizona's defense down running Marshawn Lynch while effectively burning the Cardinals' secondary with play-action passes. |
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12-21-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Oakland Raiders +7 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Oakland has won its last two home games in convincing style against the Chiefs and 49ers. Those teams are at least as good if not better than Buffalo. So the Raiders are capable - when home like they are here. The Bills are a feisty group that must produce an "A" effort such as they did last week in upsetting Green Bay to do well. But this is a brutal spot for Buffalo. The Bills are not a good road team and are traveling cross-country after one of their most satisfying victories of the season. It's the first time this season the Bills are road chalk and they are laying a touchdown with a bad quarterback. Kyle Orton is an over-the-hill game manager who does have the savvy to rely on his defense rather than take chances and attack defenses. He's not the type of quarterback who can cover margins like this, though, especially on the road. The Raiders can keep Buffalo's fierce pass rushers off Derek Carr because they have a talented running back they have underutilized up to this point - Latavius Murray. He's fresh and ready. |
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12-21-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Houston Texans +6 | 13-25 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
The Ravens and Joe Flacco aren't strong enough to lay this many points on the road against this quality of an opponent. The Texans can rush the passer with J.J. Watt and run the ball with Arian Foster. Flacco is at his worst on the road and when being pressured. The Ravens are minus suspended run-stuff nose guard Haloti Ngata. They can't commit to stopping the run because their secondary is decimated with injuries and is a major vulnerable area. The line is this high because the Texans are down to fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans have weapons, though, with Andre Johnson back from a concussion. It would just be an added plus if DeAndre Hopkins can play. Keenum has experience with the Texans. He also has the multi-talented Foster to rely on. |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +10 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Jimmy Clausen doesn't come close to matching Jay Cutler's talent level, but the Bears are going to play very hard in this division matchup because of the quarterback change. Clausen does have weapons - Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett - and will be coached up by Marc Trestman, whose strength is coaching quarterbacks. Clausen isn't a scared rookie, but a veteran. He had an excellent preseason completing 64.9 percent for 7.6 YPA and two touchdowns. I believe he'll do fine for this particular game at home and with a rare motivated effort from the Bears. The Lions may let down having clinched a playoff berth yesterday following the Eagles' loss to the Redskins and knowing how dysfunctional the Bears have been, a team they destroyed on Thanksgiving by 17 points. Detroit is just 4-16 ATS as road chalk and has covered only five of 16 times on grass. The Lions also have a horrible track record in December covering just three of their past 15 games in that month. |
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12-20-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Houston Rockets -5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by the Hawks' 18-7 record. Atlanta has played the weakest schedule of any team. The Hawks have some talented players, but they aren't that good and point guard Jeff Teague may be out. Atlanta is 2-18 in its last 20 road games versus Western Conference opponents. Houston is holding foes to 93 points a game at home. The Rockets have the No. 2 defense in the league and have won 19 straight games at home versus Eastern Conference foes. The Rockets' eight-game winning streak was snapped in a 99-90 home loss to New Orleans. The Rockets had no legs in that game after winning in high altitude the night before in overtime against Denver. It has been more than a year since the Rockets have lost back-to-back home games. |
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12-20-14 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Hornets -4.5 | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't see any way the Jazz can win three straight road games. This is Utah's fifth game in seven days - all road contests and their second matchup with in 48 hours. The Hornets have a poor record, but that's in part because they've played a very difficult schedule. They should start to get better as they are healthier and some of their players such as Gerald Henderson are playing better. The Hornets hold a strong inside-outside edge on Utah with Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. |
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12-19-14 | Utah Jazz v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Orlando is a much improved team. The Magic went 23-59 last season. Orlando is 10-18 this season and has played the most road games in the league at 19. Now the Magic are in a stop-the-pain game after consecutive road losses to Toronto and Boston. Sometimes returning home after a road swing can be tricky, especially coming home to sunny central Florida. But this was just a short tip that ended two nights ago so I'm expecting a focused Orlando effort. Utah is in a rare letdown spot after winning for just the second times in its last 14 games defeating Miami on the road, 105-87, this past Wednesday. The Jazz sank an insane 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range in the victory. This marks the Jazz's fourth road game in a row. It's their third road game in four days and fourth matchup in six days. Utah is 3-10 away from Salt Lake City. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home contests versus opponents with a losing road record. Orlando defeated the Jazz in Salt Lake City, 98-93, two weeks ago despite missing their best inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Orlando is a much better team with Vucevic back in the lineup. The 7-footer is shooting 51 percent from the floor. Utah ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage.
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12-17-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
The Bucks have the best point spread mark in the NBA at 17-8. That includes a 9-5 ATS road record. They have a strong ATS mark versus Western Conference foes covering 11 of the past 15 times and have gotten the money in five of their last six meetings against Portland. Milwaukee has won in two of its last three visits to Portland, losing last season in overtime. The Bucks did lose their prize rookie, Jabari Parker, for the season in their road win against the Suns two nights ago. That put a damper on that victory, but I feel the Bucks will come out fired up in their first game without Parker. This is a sandwich spot for Portland, which knocked off San Antonio at home two nights ago and plays at San Antonio on Friday. The Spurs are a far more important opponent to Portland than non-conference foe Milwaukee. The Trail Blazers are scoring 4.4 points less per game than last season. However, their defense has improved. Yet the Trail Blazers also suffered a key injury in their last game when center Robin Lopez broke his hand. Lopez had spearheaded Portland's defense. He was averaging 9.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots. Now the Trail Blazers have to use over-the-hill, Chris Kaman at center, weakening their interior defense. The Bucks have scored 50 or more points in the paint during three of their last four games. |
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12-17-14 | San Diego State v. Cincinnati | 62-71 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
These are two of the stingiest defenses in the country, but San Diego State is the better team. Cincinnati has yet to play a ranked opponent. The Bearcats are inexperienced and struggling to find their offense. San Diego State ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. The Aztecs are tournament tested having reached the Sweet 16 last season. They have had a week to prepare for this matchup and their offense is better versus man-to-man defenses, which Cincinnati plays. Cincinnati is a tough venue, but San Diego State is 42-18-2 ATS in its last 62 road contests. |
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12-16-14 | Arizona State +3 v. Marquette | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players. Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago. Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is now eligible. The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. |
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12-15-14 | Orlando Magic +7 v. Toronto Raptors | 82-95 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Orlando is much improved this season with some underrated young players. They also have Nikola Vucevic back and are in a good situational spot. The Raptors had to rally from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to beat New York on Sunday in overtime on the road. The Raptors are just 5-4 in their last nine games after a fast start. They lack a consistent go-to guy with DeMar DeRozan out. Orlando is at its best on the road. The Magic have covered 12 of their last 16 away matchups. This is a revenge spot for them after the Raptors came from 11 down to nip them on the road, 104-100, last month. The Raptors host the Nets in their next game in two nights. The Nets eliminated them in a bitter seven-game playoff series last season. |
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12-15-14 | Elon +32.5 v. Duke | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Elon is guard-oriented and plays good perimeter defense. The Phoenix are feisty and can hang inside this number against Duke. This is their last opportunity to probably face a Top 25 team during the regular season. Duke is rusty and has a huge look-ahead game on deck. The Blue Devils last played on Dec. 3 when they knocked off then second-ranked Wisconsin. Duke plays defending national champion Connecticut on Thursday. Elon is No. 1 in the underrated Colonial Athletic in 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Phoenix nearly beat Missouri on the road and lost in overtime at Northwestern. So they have experience against major college programs. Elon rallied from 19 down at Missouri this past Thursday to pull within one point with less than 30 seconds to play before falling 78-73. The Phoenix outscored the Tigers, 46-32, in the second half proving they won't quit. I like to have a big 'dog like that going for me. |
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12-14-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
The Spurs have had one full day to stew after losing at home to the Lakers this past Friday. The words "pitiful" should be seared on the Spurs' minds. That's what Gregg Popovich called their performance versus the Lakers. I'm expecting the Spurs to play at a high intensity level against the 10-13, inconsistent Nuggets. San Antonio is 16-6 ATS when playing on one day's rest. That mark isn't a fluke since Popovich is the best coach in the business and the most dangerous with time to prepare. The Spurs can't afford not to be sharp with upcoming games against Portland twice, Memphis, Dallas, Clippers and Thunder. Denver isn't playing well losing five of its last six. This includes a 108-96 road loss to Houston last night. The Spurs match up well to the Nuggets particularly inside with Tim Duncan. The Spurs swept the Nuggets last season winning by an average of nearly 20 points a game. They have defeated Denver in 12 of the past 16 meetings. Duncan has dominated Denver averaging 22.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.2 blocks during the past six meetings. |
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12-14-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 119 h 32 m | Show |
Brian Hoyer has not been playing well, but I can't envision a battle-tested veteran Bengals secondary that has permitted just 14 touchdown passes all year getting beat by untested rookie Johnny Manziel making his first start. It's going to be difficult for the Browns to retain their full concentration this week because of all the publicity Manziel's first start brings. The Browns play hard and their defense is better than their statistics, but they are not in the Bengals' class. Only once all season has Cleveland outgained a foe at home. There is zero chance of defensive-minded Marvin Lewis taking the Browns lightly after Cleveland embarrassed Cincinnati, 24-3, during the Thursday night Week 10 matchup. The Bengals haven't seen Manziel, but they have seen the Browns' offense now. Andy Dalton has been sacked just 16 times. Only Peyton Manning has been sacked fewer times among starting quarterback. Dalton has his full complement of weapons back, including a now healthy A.J. Green, who has 33 receptions and three 100-yard games during his past four games with three touchdowns. |
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12-13-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The 76ers should come in to this home matchup motivated after an embarrassing 88-70 road loss to the Nets last night. The 76ers have better talent than their record shows. This is a tricky spot for Memphis. It's the Grizzlies' lone road game during a six-game span and they just outlasted Charlotte, 113-107, in double overtime last night. All but one of Memphis' starters played big minutes. The Grizzlies do not have a strong bench. The Grizzlies have far more important games on deck - hosting Golden State on Tuesday and playing at San Antonio on Wednesday. So for this game they just want to come away with a victory with no need to go all out to cover any double-digit type margin. The 76ers have covered five of their last seven and are 7-4 ATS at home this season. |
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12-10-14 | Long Beach State v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 59-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The line is lower than it should because San Diego State is coming off one of the worst shooting games of all-time in a 49-36 loss to Washington this past Sunday. The Aztecs shot 20 percent from the floor, scoring the fewest points of a major college program since 1969. But the Aztecs win by defense and rebounding, which they displayed against Washington. They outrebounded the Huskies by seven and held them under 38 percent from the floor. They just couldn't buy a basket. Remember, too, Long Beach State also lost to Washington falling, 80-70. The Aztecs have defeated the 49ers in 12 of the past 13 meetings. The 49ers have allowed an average of 85.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field during their four true road games. They have yet to display the discipline and toughness required to win at this tough of a road venue especially drawing San Diego State off such a dreadful loss. |
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12-10-14 | Washington Wizards v. Orlando Magic +4.5 | Top | 91-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Magic are much improved this season and may get back leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, who has missed the past four games with a back injury. Orlando has been idle since Saturday giving it enough time to recover and get its focus back after six consecutive road games. The Magic nearly won four of those last five. They defeated the Suns, Jazz and Kings and fell to Golden State by only one point. The Wizards are playing for the third time in four days. Their last game was a double overtime win against Boston, 133-132, two nights ago. Washington is a .500 team on the road averaging eight points less than at home. The Wizards may be without Nene, who has a sore knee. |
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12-09-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
This is far more a play against the Kings then a play on the Lakers. Sacramento really struggles without DeMarcus Cousins, its best player and go-to guy. The Kings beat Utah, 101-92, at home last night. The Jazz have lost nine in a row and missed 14 of 17 shots from 3-point range. All of the Kings starters except one played between 32 and 36 minutes. This was just the second time in 18 games the Kings have won when Cousins hasn't played. Cousins is suffering from viral meningitis and is expected to be out for at least another week. Even with the win over the pathetic Jazz, the Kings are giving up six more points per game when Cousins has been out. Sacramento doesn't have a strong bench. Due to quirky scheduling, this is the Kings' only road matchup during an 11-game stretch. It's also their fourth game in five days. The combination of being on the road, not having Cousins and carrying a high fatigue rating all work strongly against the Kings. The Lakers last played on Sunday and didn't play well in a home loss to the Pelicans. But in their previous home game, the Lakers knocked off Toronto. The Lakers have won 11 of the past 12 home meetings against the Kings and covered all four games last season versus Sacramento. |
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12-09-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +10 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a strong effort from the Bucks, perhaps the most improved team in the NBA at 11-11. Milwaukee allowed Dallas to shoot 58.3 percent from the floor in its last game two days ago in a 125-102 road loss. Bucks coach Jason Kidd questioned his team's energy and effort after the game. Milwaukee is 28-11-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. The Bucks draw the Thunder playing at home for the first time in a week. Oklahoma City just returned from a three-game road trip where it wasn't particularly sharp losing to the Pelicans, beat the 76ers by 12 and hung on to nip the Pistons by two this past Sunday. The Thunder have a marquee matchup up next when they host LeBron James and Cleveland on Thursday in a nationally televised game. This will be Kevin Durant's fourth game back after missing the first 17 games with a broken foot. His minutes are being capped at around 30 per game. The Thunder remain a work in progress as Durant and Russell Westbrook, who also had been out, get back in sync with their teammates and new roles are adjusted. The Bucks have covered nine of their last 12 versus Western Conference foes while Oklahoma City is 2-11 ATS against Eastern Conference teams. |
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12-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers -8 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 37 m | Show |
If there is one team more dysfunctional than the 49ers it's the Raiders. Oakland doesn't have the talent to keep within single digits of the 49ers and its home field advantage is reduced because of the closeness to San Francisco. The Raiders have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 home contests. The 49ers' offense has been slumping, hurt by Colin Kaepernick's regression in the passing game and the strange play-calling of Greg Roman. But the 49ers still have way too many weapons for the overmatched Oakland defense to keep track of. The 49ers' defense, though, still remains top-rate. The Raiders rank last in points per game, yards and rushing. |
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12-07-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 v. Detroit Lions | 17-34 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
The Buccaneers have been tough on the road covering four of their last five away matchups. They beat Pittsburgh, defeated the Redskins by 20 and took the Saints to overtime.Only once in their last nine games have the Bucs lost by more than 10 points. In six of those games, the Bucs had a chance to win during the final quarter. The key for the Buccaneers is huge defensive improvement as Lovie Smith's Cover 2 schemes - difficult to pick up at first - are assimilated. Since the midway point of the season, the Bucs ranked first in the league in yards per pass allowed and are fifth in sack percentage. Until blasting the defensive-challenged Bears on Thanksgiving, the Lions hadn't broken the 24-point barrier in 10 consecutive games. The Lions are fat and happy right now after destroying the Bears. This is their last non-division regular season game. The Lions have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games when taking on an opponent with a losing road mark. |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin -4 v. Ohio State | Top | 0-59 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 41 m | Show |
I respect Urban Meyer and Ohio State's depth, but the Buckeyes are in too bad of shape for this Big Ten title matchup. The Buckeyes are down to third-stringer Cardale Jones at quarterback after J.T. Barrett suffered a broken ankle during the Buckeyes' highly-emotional 42-28 win over arch-rival Michigan last week. The Buckeyes also had to endure the death of one of their players. So it's been a hellish roller coaster ride for them. Wisconsin is very steady and features the person I consider the best college running back in the country, Melvin Gordon. The combination of the Badgers' No. 2 ranked defense facing off against a young, untested quarterback in a monster spot and Gordon is enough to put me on Wisconsin. It does not hurt, either, that Wisconsin QB Joel Stave has stepped up after a slow start. He's completed 66.7 percent during the last four games with four touchdown passes, which is better than it may look since the Badgers are such a heavy run-oriented team. |
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12-05-14 | Phoenix Suns +5.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 118-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
These two teams are similar with their up-tempo styles and scoring from the perimeter. Dallas is the top scoring team in the NBA, but the Suns rank sixth in points per game and are No. 1 in free throw percentage. Phoenix got back on track with a 116-99 home win against Indiana. That was back on Tuesday. The rested Suns haven't played since. They could have back Isaiah Thomas, who has missed the past four games with an ankle injury. Dallas just finished a 4-0 road trip against Eastern Conference foes. The Mavericks haven't been home in more than a week so their focus and concentration may be off. The Mavericks have won five in a row, but none of those victories were by more than seven points. The Mavericks are surrendering 108.6 points per game during their last six games, although two of those games went into overtime. After slow starts, Phoenix guards Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe have picked up their games. Dragic has scored more than 20 points in back-to-back games for the first time this season while Bledsoe is averaging better than 20 points during his last five games. The Sun have covered 69 percent of the time the last 29 times when facing an opponent with a winning home record. |
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12-05-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers +4 v. Toronto Raptors | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers weren't in sync when the Raptors buried them, 110-93, nearly two weeks ago in Cleveland. Toronto remains worthy of much respect. But much has changed since that game. The Raptors have lost their top scoring threat with DeMar DeRozan out indefinitely with a groin injury. Cleveland has picked up its defense and its chemistry has improved. The Cavaliers have won five in a row since that embarrassing loss to Toronto. Now the Cavaliers want their revenge. Cleveland played last night and nearly got caught looking ahead to this matchup before overtaking the lowly Knicks, winning 90-87 at Madison Square Garden. The Cavaliers need to play as much as possible in order to keep getting used to their new faces. Plus it's still very early in the season so it's not such a disadvantage for the Cavaliers to play without rest. Their adrenaline should kick in with this revenge spot. Toronto is the second highest-scoring team in the NBA. But the Cavaliers have stepped up their defense holding their past five foes to an average of 90.6 points per game on 42.6 percent shooting from the floor. The Raptors give up the 16th most points in the league and rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage. They have had problems guarding talented wing players. So James could be in for another monster game. The Cavaliers have covered five of the last six times when meeting an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. |
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12-04-14 | Arkansas +7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 77-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Not only is No. 21-ranked Arkansas worthy of covering this spread, but it can win straight-up. The unbeaten Razorbacks can score, have an outstanding backcourt, shot-blocker and are physically and mentally tough. The 6-0 Razorbacks have played one game away from home - and they beat SMU, 78-72, in that contest. That was the fewest points the Razorbacks scored in a game - and they still won covering as 4-point 'dogs. They are averaging 90 points per game, only three teams average more. I really like Arkansas' backcourt of Michael Qualls and Rashad Madden. They've helped the Razorbacks lead the nation in assists per game at 20.7. Iowa State is 4-1. The Cyclones haven't been sharp, especially early, in three of their games. A slow start could doom them against the up-tempo Razorbacks. Arkansas has a good history in these spots covering nine of the last 12 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. |
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12-03-14 | UNLV v. Arizona State -5 | Top | 55-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
UNLV is one of the least experienced teams in the country breaking in all new starters. The Rebels are not well coached and playing in their first real road game of the season. The Rebels' challenge is even more daunting because they are at Arizona State. The Sun Devils have won 20 of their last 21 games homes, including the past 12 at Wells Fargo Arena. Among the teams the Sun Devils have defeated during this span are Utah, Colorado, Oregon, then second-ranked Arizona, Colgate this season and Stanford, a team that beat UNLV by 21 points at a neutral site less than two weeks ago. UNLV has talent. But it's too early in the season for that talent to mesh. The Rebels have broken the 60-point barrier just once in their first five games and are shooting less than 58 percent from the foul line. The Sun Devils defeated the Rebels by six points last season - at UNLV. The Rebels can rebound and block shots, but lack the Sun Devils' experience and balanced attack. The Rebels have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games. |
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12-03-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat -4.5 | 112-102 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
The spot sets up right for Miami. The Heat have revenge motivation, Dwayne Wade back in the lineup and playing well and catch the Hawks off a narrow home win against the Celtics last night when they had to come from behind by 22 points to pull out the victory. The Hawks exerted a lot of energy in that win against the Celtics. Miami has had Wade back for two games now after he missed seven games with a hamstring injury. He had 27 points in a win against the Knicks this past Sunday and 20 against Washington on Monday. The Heat, though, were blown out in that game against the Wizards. However, Miami was playing without rest and Washington had a revenge motive. Those factors are switched around for this matchup. Atlanta beat Miami, 114-103, less than three weeks ago. The Hawks shot 56 percent in that victory. Miami has tightened its defense since then. The Heat are more than capable of beating good teams at home as evidenced by an earlier victory against Toronto. |
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12-02-14 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -6.5 | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Boston has been bad at home, but sports a winning ATS road record. The spot and matchup set up well for the Celtics to keep this game extremely competitive. The Hawks rolled past Charlotte, 105-75, at home this past Saturday. Atlanta had a revenge motive in that matchup after falling to the Hornets in triple overtime on Nov. 7. The Hawks have an important Southeast Division road matchup on Wednesday against Miami. So this matchup is a letdown spot for them. The Hawks have covered less than 20 percent the past 31 times when playing on two day's rest. This angle has merit because it falls squarely during the two-year coaching reign of Mike Budenholzer. Speaking of Budenholzer, he was an assistant coach to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs before taking the Hawks job. The Hawks are very similar to the Spurs in the plays and offense they run. The Celtics just faced the Spurs this past Sunday at home. So they should be well prepared. Note, too, that Budenholzer was not at practice on Tuesday because of illness. The Celtics got buried against the Spurs, but the Hawks are several tiers lower than the Spurs. The Celtics match up much better to Atlanta because they are competitive size-wise and can compete on the boards. The Hawks rank 27th in rebounds per game. Boston has dropped four in a row. Those defeats, however, came to the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Bulls with Derrick Rose and Spurs. Those teams are all better than Atlanta.
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12-01-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Philadelphia 76ers +13.5 | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
San Antonio played at Boston yesterday. The Spurs have far tougher games on this road trip coming Wednesday versus the Nets and Grizzlies on Friday. So Gregg Popovich's has decided to sit out Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. I'm not expecting heavy minutes either from the rest of San Antonio's starters. The 76ers shouldn't lack for motivation hosting the world champions and having revenge for a 100-75 embarrassment to the Spurs two weeks ago. Taking advantage of inflated lines such as this, the 76ers have posted a winning spread record at home this season and are 7-2 ATS versus opponents with an above .600 record. Philadelphia has lost by 11 points or fewer in all but two of its last eight defeats. |
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11-30-14 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
The Saints are down this season, but Pittsburgh is not an elite team. Elite teams don't lose to the Buccaneers and Jets. Yes, New Orleans is 1-4 on the road. But three of those four losses were by a combined six points. The last time the Saints were at a cold weather site they beat the Eagles in the playoffs last season. It's not going to be a cold day either in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the 40s. The Steelers are getting reinforced on defense with Troy Polamalu, Ryan Shazier and Ike Taylor likely to return to the lineup. Even with those players, though, the Steelers still are far from having their past dominant defenses. Drew Brees has an underrated running attack with Mark Ingram having a career season. Brees is a top-five quarterback, who will keep the Saints in the game. |
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11-28-14 | Navy -8.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-40 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
South Alabama is bowl eligible with six victories. This is the Jaguars' final regular season game and they are grasping for air playing for the seventh consecutive week. The Jaguars had to play South Carolina, a physical SEC team, last week raising their fatigue factor. I don't see the Jaguars having the stamina and incentive to hang in against Navy's vaunted triple- option offense operated by Keenan Reynolds, who has the third-most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in NCAA history. Reynolds had a monster game last week accounting for seven touchdowns - six rushing - in a 52-19 waltz over Georgia Southern. South Alabama ranks 76th nationally in run defense. Navy has picked up its game going 3-1 after a three-game losing streak. The Midshipmen are fresh, too. This is just their second game this month. The Midshipmen are 8-1 ATS following a victory. Yes, Navy has a huge look-ahead game in its annual battle versus Army. But that game has been pushed back a week until the second week of December. Navy has a bye next week so an all-out effort should be forthcoming, which the disciplined Midshipmen usually can be counted on. A victory here gives Navy six wins and all but assures the Midshipmen of going to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. South Alabama plays in Mobile where three naval bases are located. So Navy is going to get a lot of crowd support. South Alabama has failed to cover in its last five home contests. |
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11-26-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Charlotte Hornets +6.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Portland is hot. Charlotte is not. But circumstances make this a good spot for the Hornets. The Trail Blazers are playing their third road game in four days. They just played two weak foes - Boston and Philadelphia - and are leaving after this game to return to the West Coast where they have a much bigger game on deck hosting Memphis on Friday. So this is a flat spot for them. The Hornets are 4-11 on the season. However, five of those 11 defeats were decided on the final possession. They nearly beat Portland on the road on Nov. 11 losing by two points after leading by 23. The Hornets usually are at their best in a 'dog role covering six of the past nine times during the regular season when taking more than four points. They have a strong inside presence with Al Jefferson, who is starting to get some help with Cody Zeller's improved play, and backcourt scoring with Kemba Walker. Lance Stephenson makes Charlotte a better team, too, although he hasn't played up to expectations yet. The Trail Blazers entered their current trip giving up 15 points more on the road than at home. Their first two games were against very bad teams. So this comes down to Portland being a little overrated and Charlotte not as bad as its record. Factor in the situational elements and the Hornets are a very live 'dog. |
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11-24-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Toronto Raptors -5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
My first tendency is to fade Eastern Conference clubs when taking on good teams from the Western Conference. But this matchup rates an exception. Toronto is the premier team in the East right now at 11-2 and playing with substantial confidence after a 17-point victory this past Saturday against the Cavaliers and LeBron James. That was Toronto's fourth win in a row. The Raptors catch the Suns at the end of a six-game road trip. The Suns have strung together four consecutive victories. That's not as impressive as it sounds, however, as those wins have been against the Celtics, Pistons, 76ers and Pacers - teams with a combined record of 12-39. Now the Suns are stepping up in class while facing a high fatigue factor as this marks their third road game in four days. The Suns don't have size to fall back on either. They win with quickness, fast-breaks and outstanding guard play. Toronto has the versatility and outstanding backcourt to match that plus sixth man Louis Williams is off his best game of the season. The Raptors have matched up to the West covering five of the last six times against the conference. They also have a double revenge motive after losing both games to Phoenix last season. The Suns finally get to head home to the desert following this game. I'm not expecting them to produce anywhere near an "A" game. |
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11-24-14 | NY Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 30 m | Show |
Massive snow in Buffalo have forced this game to be moved to Detroit, causing Buffalo to lose its home field advantage. The Jets are in a much better place now - both offensively and morale-wise - with Michael Vick replacing totally inept Geno Smith. Vick makes the Jets offense respectable now especially with Percy Harvin aboard. The Jets catch a break in that the Bills just lost cornerback Leodis McKelvin for the season. The Jets outgained the Bills when they met in Week 8, but couldn't overcome Smith's quick three interceptions. The Jets are off a bye and have revenge. They aren't going to the playoffs so this division rivalry matchup in a revenge spot is close to their Super Bowl game. Buffalo lost its playoff hope in a span of five days last week with losses to the Chiefs and Dolphins. The Bills haven't scored in their last 21 possessions and rank last in red zone touchdown efficiency. They have failed to score more than 17 points in six of their past eight games. Kyle Orton is far less of a playmaker than Orton. The Jets rank No. 4 in run defense. The Jets' strength is their defensive front seven. |
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11-23-14 | Washington Redskins v. San Francisco 49ers -9 | 13-17 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Washington has lost 15 of its last 18 games. The Redskins are down - and they are not getting up. The Redskins' offense is a mess because Robert Griffith III has just become a glorified checkdown machine unable to fully come back from devastating injuries and in the wrong offensive system. The 49ers still have an upper-tier defense and their pass rush has become far more dangerous with the return of Aldon Smith. The 49ers are going to generate plenty of points versus a Washington defense that allows nearly 26 points a game and is minus its best pass rusher, Brian Orakpo, and best cornerback, DeAngelo Hall. This also is a terrible spot for the Redskins traveling cross-country following a horrendous 20-point home loss to Tampa Bay. |
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11-23-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Philadelphia Eagles -11 | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Not only do the Eagles have the high-powered, quick-tempo offense to blow out the Titans, but they are in a great spot to do it. The Eagles are off an embarrassing road loss to Green Bay. The Titans are off an emotional and well-played game and effort this past Monday at home where they nearly upset the Steelers. Now the Titans have to travel to a very hostile environment on a short week with a young team in an all-out rebuilding stage. I don't see them being able to sustain that type of effort, which is more than needed against this strong of an opponent. The Titans have the second-worst run defense in the league and their offense isn't set up to play from behind. Rookie quarterback Zack Mettenberger has no mobility. The Eagles have 33 sacks and will be applying plenty of heat. The Titans need to stay on the ground to set up Mettenberger, but their defense is going to have problems with the Eagles' fast pace that keeps opponents from substituting. The Eagles have forced at least one turnover in 21 of their last 22 games. They also have the best special teams in the NFL. The Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. They have won only once during their past nine games. |
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11-23-14 | Cincinnati Bengals +2 v. Houston Texans | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
Cincinnati isn't as intimidating on the road, but the Bengals still are a clear level about Houston especially with Arian Foster not looking like he's going to play. The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. This is Ryan Mallett's first home start. He's not going to win games on his own and he lacks mobility. The Bengals can generate pressure and have a veteran defense that has been reinforced with some key players back from injury. Houston does not have an explosive offense. The Texans have yet to throw for 300 yards in a game. Foster is their key, but he's grounded by hamstring, groin and knee problems. The Bengals are strong on pass defense. Andy Dalton is helped by a return to health of A.J. Green, a top-five receiver. The Texans have no one who can handle him. Jeremy Hill has provided solid ground work rushing for 361 yards the last three games, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. So Dalton isn't forced to carry the load. |
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11-21-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Atlanta Hawks -6.5 | Top | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
The Hawks have been stewing for three days after being upset at home by the lowly Lakers this past Tuesday. They are anxious to redeem themselves and have a patsy to take their frustrations out on - the Pistons. Detroit is 1-6 in its last seven games and really struggling offensively under new coach Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons rank 27th in scoring and 29th in field goal percentage. Only once has Detroit reached triple-digits this season. They have also lost in 10 of their past 11 visits to Atlanta. Morale is not good right now in Detroit either. The latest to clash with Van Gundy is Josh Smith, who is having another horrible season making less than 37 percent of his shots from the floor. The Hawks know all too well about Smith's ball hogging and low percentages since he was a former long-time teammate. Detroit's strength is an active frontcourt, but Atlanta more than counters that with All-Stars Paul Millsap and Al Horford. Jeff Teague is a much better point guard, too, than Brandon Jennings. |
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11-17-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The Titans get a rare home chance on the national stage tonight, but they are not good enough to keep this matchup close. The Steelers are off an embarrassing flat spot against the Jets. Don't look for the Steelers to be down a second straight week. Ben Roethlisberger has been red-hot and he should get good infantry support for the first time in three games as the Titans rank 29th versus the run. Ken Whisenhunt has made no bones about the Titans being in a rebuilding year. He's switched to sixth-round rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The Steelers have some defensive injuries, but Mettenberger isn't ready yet to be an effective NFL starting quarterback. He's hurt by not having a lick of mobility and holding the ball too long. Mettenberger isn't likely to have injured tight end and security blanket Delanie Walker, who leads the Titans in receiving yards and touchdowns. Under wily defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers are 18-2 facing rookie quarterbacks. The Titans have a terrible track record covering just two of their last 14 games. They have lost eight of their last 10 home games and are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 home matchups. |
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11-16-14 | Golden State Warriors -8.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 136-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
The teams met on Nov. 1 and the Warriors destroyed the Lakers, 127-104, at home. Now the scene shifts to Staples Center, but nothing has changed. The Warriors have far too much firepower for the Lakers. LA can't stop the Warriors' fast break. The Warriors scored 19 more points than the Lakers in transition during the first meeting. Stephen Curry against Jeremy Lin is a huge point guard mismatch for the Warriors. The line is reduced a little because the Warriors played last night. But Golden State didn't have to play anyone more than 30 minutes in blowing out Charlotte, 112-87, at home. It's just a short plane ride from northern California to southern California. Kobe Bryant continues to hurt the Lakers with his ball-hogging and horrendous shooting. Bryant is shooting just 31.8 percent from the floor during his last four games. Yes, the prideful Bryant could get hot, but he has no help. The Warriors are far deeper and more explosive. They also don't share any love for the Lakers, who bullied them for many years. |
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11-16-14 | B.C. Lions +3 v. Montreal Alouettes | Top | 17-50 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Both of these teams enter their Grey Cup playoff matchup with 9-9 records. But underdog B.C. clearly is the superior team. Montreal is coming from the far, far weaker Eastern Division. B.C. has a veteran quarterback, Kevin Glenn, and a much stronger passing attack. Montreal has had problems with its quarterbacks all season and is going with youngster Jonathan Crompton at QB. Glenn finished second in passing yards with just under 4,000 for the season. The Alouettes, however, finished next to last in passing yards and had the lowest completion percentage in the CFL. Montreal also had the lowest QB efficiency rating with just two more touchdown throws than interceptions. It's not like Crompton can rely on a steady ground attack to offset this deficiency either because Montreal was tied for last in the league in yards per rush. Montreal, though, is favored because the records are the same and it has home field. Ticket sales are down, though, reducing the Alouettes' home field edge. Bottom line: Wrong team favored. . |
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11-16-14 | Denver Nuggets +1 v. New York Knicks | 93-109 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
The Knicks are reeling. Maybe they will get it going but for now they are in deep trouble. New York has multiple injuries, low morale, plays below average defense and has been unable to grasp first year head coach Derek Fisher's triangle offense. The Knicks average only 92.4 points per game, which ranks 26th. They are 18th in defensive field goal percentage. The result is a seven game losing streak. Only once all season have the Knicks managed to score 100 points. They are painful to watch struggling on offense with a bunch of guys who only are on the roster because of multiple injuries the latest being a hip-pointer suffered by guard Iman Shumpert, perhaps the only underrated player on the Knicks. Already out are starting point guard Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani. The Knicks are forced to use Shane Larkin and Pablo Prigioni at point guard. Neither is NBA starting-caliber if even worthy of being on a roster. They should get eaten up by Ty Lawson. Denver has been terrible, too. I'm not a fan of its coach, Brian Shaw. But the Nuggets are off their best game, a confidence-building blowout road win against the Pacers. Yes, the Pacers are even more decimated with injuries than the Knicks. But the Nuggets have a deep roster with some talent. Some of those players were injured and are beginning to play more minutes now, including Danilo Gallinari. The Nuggets get up for this game, too, because of former teammate Carmelo Anthony. |
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11-16-14 | Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 20-24 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 25 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are similar to the Seahawks in that they are run-oriented and play good defense. They just aren't as good as Seattle and Alex Smith isn't nearly as good as Russell Wilson. The Seahawks' offense has picked up with the return to health of left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger. It wasn't a fluke the Seahawks rushed for 350 yards against the Giants last week with those two stud offensive linemen back in the lineup. The Seahawks run the ball well and stop the run. They lead the league in yards per carry and are tied for first in giving up the fewest yards per rush. The Chiefs rank 30th in giving up yards per run. The strength of their defense is edge pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Because of Wilson, the Chiefs can't stack the line either keying just on Marshawn Lynch. Seattle can stack the box against Jamaal Charles, though, because the Chiefs have no downfield passing game. Alex Smith has the lowest yards per throw of any quarterback during the past five years. He has yet to connect with a wide receiver for a touchdown this season. The Chiefs are not well rounded enough to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions. |
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11-16-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -2.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Now that the line has come down under a field goal I'm going to get involved with the Bears. There is tremendous urgency for Chicago in this matchup. The Bears' season is at stake and possibly the future of Marc Trestman and Jay Cutler remaining in Chicago. I expect the Bears to play with a great deal of urgency and passion after being embarrassed in their last two games. Those blowout losses, though, came to the Packers and Patriots. The Vikings' offense is light years behind those elite offenses. Minnesota's defense has improved under defensive guru Mike Zimmer. But the Vikings still are vulnerable in the secondary and their offense doesn't scare anyone with rookie Teddy Bridgewater a work in progress. Expect a big game from Jared Allen, an ex-Viking who will be going against his former practice partner tackle Matt Kalil. Cutler and the Bears are better than they have shown. Cutler has the weapons to put up a lot of points against Minnesota. The Vikings haven't won at Soldier Field in seven years. |
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11-15-14 | Utah Jazz v. Toronto Raptors -10 | Top | 93-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
The Raptors made the playoffs last season and are better this season. Unlike some teams, the Raptors can be counted on to give a full effort every game. They have good chemistry under Dwane Casey. This is an excellent spot for the Raptors to score a blowout victory after suffering their first home loss of the season this past Thursday on national TV against the Bulls. That was a rare home national TV game and the Raptors didn't shoot well while the Bulls did. Utah is a young, rebuilding team that ranks 25th in defensive field goal percentage. The Jazz are up and down headed for the lottery again. They are coming off a dramatic buzzer-beating victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last night. I see the Jazz letting down here as they look forward to finally heading back to Salt Lake City. This is Utah's fifth road game in seven days. These games have been in the Midwest, South and East Coast. The Jazz are tired and lack a strong bench. Toronto has been home for the past nine days. Toronto's big men will fare better against Utah's frontline than they did against Pau Gasol. The Raptors, as mentioned, will play hard and have a stronger bench than Utah. The spot and matchup are right for the Raptors to blow out Utah. |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford -7 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 33 m | Show |
Stanford has had a down season. But the Cardinal won't lack motivation. This is their final home game. They need a victory to become bowl eligible and it's a huge revenge spot. The Cardinal was idle last week after getting pounded on the road by Oregon. The prideful Cardinal are 10-0 under David Shaw after a loss. They haven't lost two in a row since 2009. Utah has dropped out of contention in the South Division of the Pac-12 following losses to Arizona State and Oregon, which was particularly tough to take. The Utes also lost quarterback Kendal Thompson for the season. That means erratic Tyler Wilson is back under center. Wilson's receiving corps is down due to injuries. The biggest loss is not having big-play man Dres Anderson. The Utes are going to need to run the ball, which is a tough order against a stout Stanford front seven. Stanford ranks fifth in the nation in fewest yards allowed per game and has the 11th best run defense in the country. |
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11-14-14 | San Antonio Spurs -7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
The Spurs are rounding into form. The Lakers don't have nearly the goods to keep this matchup within single digits. San Antonio is 11-6 ATS the past 17 times when laying 7 or more points during the regular season. The Spurs can tear the Lakers' weak interior defense apart with Tim Duncan inside. No team gives up more points inside the paint than the Lakers. The Spurs also have the perimeter game to take advantage of the Lakers' weak outside defense. The Lakers rank last in defensive field goal percentage and points per game giving up 111.5. San Antonio is rested after posting back-to-back road victories against the Clippers and Warriors - two teams light years ahead of the Lakers. The Lakers are paper thin at point guard with backup Ronnie Price suspended for this game for committing a flagrant foul against the Hornets' Austin Rivers. Kobe Bryant is leading the league in scoring, but is shooting less than 39 percent from the floor. Bryant can no longer single-handily will the Lakers into victory and Gregg Popovich knows it. The Spurs do have a road game against the much-improved Kings on Saturday. But their next game after that one is on Monday at home against the winless 76ers. The Spurs should be fresh having not played for two days. No coach is more dangerous with extra prep time than Popovich. San Antonio also is much deeper than LA so I don't see the backdoor being left open. |
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11-14-14 | Detroit Pistons +4.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 96-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
Detroit is more respectable under Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons can be trusted now to play stronger defense and give a better effort than during the recent past. Oklahoma City has yet to win two games in a row. It's not just being without superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Thunder also are minus Perry Jones and Andre Roberson. The Pistons can match up to Oklahoma City's frontcourt with active Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe and have a stronger bench. Detroit's scoring is down due mainly to poor shooting and free throw percentage. However, the Thunder are averaging just 90.3 points. They don't have enough offense and depth to beat many teams let alone cover margins. |
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11-14-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +3 v. Orlando Magic | 85-101 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Both teams are heavy into rebuilding, but the Bucks are further along. Milwaukee averages an NBA-best 46.4 points from its reserves and are among the best in limiting opponents in points allowed per 100 possessions. Orlando, by contrast, averages 20 points per game less than Milwaukee from its bench and ranks in the middle of the pack in giving up points per 100 possessions. Not only do the Bucks hold a big bench edge, but also at point guard with underrated Brandon Knight against work-in-progress rookie Elfrid Payton, who is extremely limited offensively shooting just 33.8 percent from the floor - and that's not attempting a 3-point shot yet. The Bucks also rank 17th in free throw percentage compared to the Magic, who are 28th. Milwaukee last played on Tuesday. Orlando is coming back from a three-game road trip, its longest of the season so far. The Magic are young so their concentration could be off in their first game back at home. The Bucks enter this matchup with confidence and momentum having posted consecutive victories over Memphis and Oklahoma City. |
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11-13-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a step-up game for the Raptors made more so by a rare national television home appearance (TNT). The Raptors should be up to the challenge. They certainly will be highly motivated. Toronto has won 26 of its past 33 games at Air Canada Centre. This includes a 5-0 mark this season. The Raptors made the playoffs last season and look better this season leading the NBA in scoring at 107 points per game. The Bulls are not in sync yet with Derrick Rose in and out of the lineup bothered by ankle sprains. The Bulls' defense is down ranking 14th in points per game allowed and second-to-last in defensive rebounding. This is a good time for the Raptors to be meeting the Bulls. Toronto hasn't played a daunting schedule, but neither has Chicago. The Bulls' last six games have been against the Timberwolves, Magic, Bucks, 76ers, Celtics and Pistons, who they defeated this past Monday night. Chicago is 1-8 ATS the past nine times it has played following a victory. The Raptors are in good physical shape. This is their fourth consecutive home game. They nearly got caught peeking ahead to this matchup, but rallied from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to beat Orlando, 104-100, two nights ago. The Raptors don't play again until Saturday when they host Utah. This is the game they are pointing to. Toronto has covered the past seven times it has hosted an opponent with a winning road record. The Raptors have also covered in nine of their last 12 meetings versus the Bulls. The Raptors' two key big men, Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson, are healthy and their underrated backcourt of Kyle Lowery and DeMar DeRozan rates an edge with Rose not 100 percent. |
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11-11-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
Milwaukee is much improved. The market hasn't quite caught on just how much better the Bucks are with underrated Brandon Knight at point guard, a healthy Larry Sanders, new coaching and ownership and a strong bench that ranks No. 1 in the league in scoring. The Bucks want very much to prove themselves to the Thunder after years of suffering against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The timing is right for Milwaukee to do this. The Bucks last played on Saturday and don't play again until Friday when they go on a two-game road trip to Florida. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it has played on two days rest. Oklahoma City is decimated with injuries. The Thunder have just one healthy starter, Serge Ibaka, from last season. Their jerseys say Thunder, but their lineup is well below average. But after the Thunder upset fat-and-happy Sacramento at home in their last game this line comes out very short. The Bucks' superior bench holds a huge edge against the thin Thunder reserves, many of whom wouldn't even hold roster spots if not for multiple injuries to starters. The Thunder have failed to cover in six of their last seven road games. They are not going to sneak up on the Bucks, who are home, motivated and pointing to this matchup as a key in turning the corner. |
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11-11-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Memphis Grizzlies -10 | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The Lakers are terrible. Until beating the Hornets at home this past Sunday, the Lakers had lost their first five games by an average of 14.8 points. LA ranks last in points allowed per game at 112.7 and is at the bottom in defensive field goal percentage at 48.4. Ball hog Kobe Bryant has the biggest minus ratio in the league. The Grizzlies were tough on the Lakers even before LA became terrible winning six of the last eight times. The Grizzlies should be in an angry mood after getting nipped at the end by the Bucks, 93-92, this past Saturday night in Milwaukee on a three-point play by Brandon Knight with one second left. That concluded a three-game road swing. Now the Grizzlies are at FedEx Forum where they have won 16 straight times. Despite that loss to the upstart Bucks, the Grizzlies are tied for the best record in the NBA. Marc Gasol is healthy, unlike last year, and having a big season. Courtney Lee has improved his offense and Mike Conley gives the Grizzlies' a big edge at point guard against struggling Jeremy Lin. Memphis is traditionally strong defensively and that's the case again this season as the Grizzlies rank No. 1 holding foes to under 88 points a game. That's 24 points fewer per game than the Lakers. The Lakers got their needed victory. They won't be a match for the aroused Grizzlies. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
OK, the Panthers aren't the defensive team they were a year ago. But they aren't a touchdown worse than the Eagles especially with Philadelphia losing its leader on defense, linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Chip Kelly's fast-break offense gets the publicity. This doesn't tell the whole picture, though. The Eagles' defense wasn't very good even with Ryans giving up 400 or more yards in four of their last six games. The Eagles also don't take care of the ball very well either committing 21 turnovers. They are down to second-string quarterback Mark Sanchez, who never has shown a tendency to be careful with the ball either. This is Sanchez's first start in two years so there could be some rust. He has just five more touchdowns than interceptions in his career. Carolina's offense should pick up against this opponent especially getting back some of their injured starting offensive linemen. Carolina is expected to have back offensive linemen Byron Bell, Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner. The Panthers are on extra rest having played 11 days ago. They are eager to atone for their disappointing season with a strong performance on the national stage. They also have been given second life in the weak NFC South with the Saints getting upset at home this past Sunday by the 49ers. The Eagles have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when hosting an opponent with a losing road record. |
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11-10-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Cleveland is getting more in sync with its Big Three. Kevin Love is putting up good numbers and LeBron James and Kyrie Irving combined for 17 assists in the Cavaliers' last game, a 110-101 road win against the Nuggets this past Friday. The Cavaliers have lacked ball movement, but finished with a season-high 25 assists and a season-low nine turnovers versus the Nuggets. Granted Denver isn't very good, but if motivated and in sync the Cavaliers can blow out any team with their talent. The Cavaliers are rested and should be well-prepared and highly motivated to get their first home win. They catch a tired Pelicans team that didn't get into Cleveland until 2 in the morning after upsetting the Spurs on the road Saturday night. |
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11-09-14 | Charlotte Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 | Top | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
The 0-5 Lakers are off to the franchise's worst start. If the Lakers don't win this matchup they very well could open 0-13 because the next seven games are all tough. This is a highly favorable situation for the desperate Lakers, who will be pushed hard by prideful Kobe Bryant. The Lakers have had four days off between games while the Hornets are playing for the sixth time in nine days. Charlotte is traveling after a 122-119 double overtime home win against the Hawks two nights ago in a game they trailed most of the time. The Hornets have yet to win on the road and are making the journey to the West Coast. |
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11-09-14 | Denver Broncos -11 v. Oakland Raiders | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 80 h 42 m | Show | |
I can't see the Raiders staying within two touchdowns of Denver. The Broncos are averaging 30.6 points per game and are No. 2 in the NFL in passing. Peyton Manning is having another monster season on pace to throw for 5,144 yards and 44 touchdowns. Rookie Derek Carr, devoid of weapons and saddled with the worst ground attack by far in the NFL, has no chance of keeping pace. The Raiders rank last in total yards and second-to-last in points per game. Only twice have the Raiders scored more than 14 points in a game. Oakland's defense has recorded just eight sacks and gives up more than 26 points per game. The prideful Broncos are in angry mood after an embarrassing road loss to the Patriots this past Sunday. The Raiders could have the most overrated home field in the NFL. The Raiders have had just one winning ATS season at home since 2004. They haven't had a winning ATS mark as a home 'dog since 2009. The Broncos have beaten the Raiders in Oakland the past three seasons by an average of 17.6 points. |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 16 m | Show |
The Lions have the league's top defense, were idle last week and their offense will get heavily fortified with the expected return of Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and some of their banged-up tight ends. Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback when he has Johnson, who has missed the past three games and is anxious to have his usual big impact. A big key, though, with backing the Lions besides their much improved defense is their new coaching staff headed by Jim Caldwell. The Lions are actually well coached for the first time in years. Caldwell has established discipline and a reduction on penalties and stupid decisions. The Dolphins have a solid defense, too, but their offense can't match the Lions at the skill positions. Lamar Miller is Miami's best running back and he has a shoulder injury. Miller is just an average runner, but he's much better than what the Dolphins have behind him. The Lions rank first in the NFL in fewest yards per game and in scoring defense holding opponents to less than 16 points a game. This is the Dolphins' only dome game and stiffest road challenge. Miami's other road games have been at Buffalo, Oakland in London, at Chicago and Jacksonville. The Bills are 1-3 ATS at home with their lone cover coming in a 29-10 win against the Dolphins. The Raiders have yet to win a game, while the Bears and Jaguars are a combined 1-6 at home. |
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11-08-14 | Montreal Alouettes v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -3 | 15-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
Defense and special teams have been stepping up for Hamilton. Montreal's incentive may be down as it already has a playoff position locked up. The Tiger-Cats have revenge and need the game more. Hamilton holds a quarterback edge with Zach Collaros. The Alouettes have the league's worst passer efficiency rating. The Tiger-Cats have won all five of their home games at Tim Hortons Field. They are expecting a full crowd, too, for the first time. |
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11-07-14 | Dallas Mavericks -2.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 105-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
The Mavericks have owned the Jazz, have an outstanding road ATS mark and will be fired up after laying an egg last night against Portland in an embarrassing 108-87 loss. Prior to last night's loss to the Trail Blazers, the Mavericks were leading the NBA in scoring at 111.8 points per game and also were No. 1 in field goal percentage at 52.4. One road game doesn't mean the Mavericks' offense has suddenly gone down the tubes. I see the Mavericks bouncing back in a big way against a team they have beaten 13 of the past 16 times. The youthful Jazz still could be celebrating their upset home win two nights ago against the Cavaliers and LeBron James when Gordon Hayward made a step-back jumper at the buzzer. Even with that victory, Utah is just 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Mavericks are a mind-boggling 52-22 (70 percent) ATS in their last 74 road contests. Dallas has beaten Utah the past six times, winning by an average of 12.3 points while shooting 52.6 percent from the field. The teams just met eight days ago in Dallas and the Mavericks had no problem beating Utah, 120-102. Dallas has covered in six of its last eight visits to Salt Lake City. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 3 m | Show |
Cleveland's 5-3 record looks fancy on the surface, but the Browns aren't good enough to keep within a touchdown against a superior opponent in this setting. The Browns last three games have come against the three worst teams in the NFL - Jaguars, Raiders and Buccaneers. Cleveland lost to the Jaguars by 18 points and didn't have an easy time with either the Raiders or Buccaneers nearly losing to one-win Tampa Bay last week. This is the Browns' first national TV game of the season. It comes on a short week on the road against probably the best team in the AFC North. The Browns have lost 17 consecutive division road games having last beaten an AFC North club away from home in 2008. The Bengals are 13-0-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Paul Brown Stadium. They have covered 82 percent of their past 18 home games. Brian Hoyer needs an effective ground attack to be effective. The Browns haven't had that in their last three games since losing star center Alex Mack. Cleveland has averaged just 52.6 yards rushing during this time span. The Browns also are going to be missing their best receiving threat, tight end Jordan Cameron. The Bengals have their best playmaker back in A.J. Green. He makes Andy Dalton much better. Even if Giovani Bernad can't play, the Bengals still have power back Jeremy Hill to exploit the Browns' 31st rush defense. |
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11-05-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 100-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
The Cavaliers aren't in sync yet with superstar newcomers LeBron James and Kevin Love. But they will be highly motivated to play well against the lowly Jazz after being embarrassed at Portland last night, 101-82. James was held to his lowest point total in six years. Playing in the second of back-to-back games isn't this taxing so early in the season, especially since the Cavaliers had three days off prior to last night's game. The youthful Jazz are at least another two years away from being a playoff contender. Their defense has been horrible giving up 110.3 points and 52.7 percent shooting from the floor during their three losses. Despite their horrendous game last night to the Trail Blazers, the Cavaliers are getting good early numbers from James and Love. James is fourth in the league in scoring at 26.5 while Love's 15 rebounds per game rank No. 2. |
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11-03-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Denver Nuggets -7 | 110-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
The Kings are coming off a home upset victory against the Trail Blazers and a huge upset road win against the Clippers on Sunday. The Kings host these same Nuggets on Wednesday before embarking on a four-game road trip. I don't see the Kings having the maturity and bench strength to pull off a third consecutive upset, especially since this is their fourth game in six days and second in two days. The Kings have failed to cover six of the last seven times following a win. Denver is playing fast led by lightening quick point guard Ty Lawson. The Nuggets just haven't been making their shots. That can change against a Kings defense that traditionally has been bad. The Nuggets are rounding into shape and will be highly motivated after losing their last game this past Saturday, 102-91, on the road to short-handed Oklahoma City. Nuggets coach Brian Shaw said his team looked like zombies. That should prove a strong wake-up call to his talented squad. Denver has far more depth than Sacramento and holds a backcourt edge. |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +2 | 23-43 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
The Steelers' balanced offense is rolling averaging 40.5 points in their last two games. Ben Roethlisberger has never been hotter. Martavis Bryant has stepped up to give the Steelers a tall wide receiving option to go with Antonio Brown. Baltimore is without its top defensive back, cornerback Jimmy Smith. That leaves the Ravens without a strong cover person to handle Brown, who is an absolute game-changer with 60 receptions for 852 yards and seven touchdowns. The Ravens' defense is far less intimidating when playing on the road. Baltimore has covered just one of its last five away contests and is 1-6-1 ATS during its last eight games versus AFC foes. Pittsburgh has covered seven of its last 10 home games and has revenge for am embarrassing 26-6 loss to the Ravens in Week 2. The Steelers have changed up a lot of things since that defeat and are in a much better place now. The Steelers' defense has been reinforced with the return of nose tackle Steve McLendon and good-looking rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier. |
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11-02-14 | St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -9.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 41 m | Show |
The 49ers are rested and ready to pummel the Rams, a team they beat by two touchdowns just three weeks ago despite playing far from their "A" game. The Rams are decimated by injuries. They were missing their two starting cornerbacks this past Sunday against the Chiefs. They had to use a sixth-round rookie and an undrafted rookie. The 49ers can take advantage with their deep crop of veteran wide receivers. Then against the Chiefs, the Rams lost their leading receiver, Brian Quick, and three starting offensive linemen, including left tackle Jake Long. Austin Davis is struggling as the league studies more film on him. He is playing behind a makeshift offensive line with below average wide receivers and a disappointing ground attack. The Rams stole a game against the Seahawks two weeks ago by coming up with trick plays on special teams. That's not going to work against fiery Jim Harbaugh and his well-coached, veteran 49ers team. |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Houston Texans | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not a fan of the Texans. They have been outgained by an average of nearly 30 yards per game and have played a weak schedule. Their victories have come against the Redskins opening week with a rusty Robert Griffin III at quarterback, Raiders, Bills with E.J. Manuel at quarterback and Titans with rookie Zach Mettenberger making his first pro start. Aside from Arian Foster, J.J. Watt and a declining Andre Johnson the Texans really don't have much. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and heavily turnover prone. He's committed eight turnovers in his last six games. The Eagles represent a step up for the Texans. The Eagles' offensive line is getting healthier and their ground game has picked up with LeSean McCoy rushing for 232 yards in his last two games. Nick Foles isn't nearly as good as his 2013 statistics, but he's better than he's shown lately. His game will pick up since the Eagles' offensive line is getting back to full strength. It has been 21 games since the Eagles last lost two in a row. Philadelphia's defense is improving, helped by the return of linebacker Mychal Kendricks. The Eagles also hold a special teams edge. They have seven defensive/special teams touchdowns while their opposition has yet to put up a defensive or special teams score. The Eagles won't lack for motivation either in this non-conference matchup with eight former Texans on their roster, including linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin. |
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11-01-14 | Arizona +7 v. UCLA | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -120 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
UCLA has been overrated all season and its overpriced again in this matchup. The Bruins have covered only one of eight games and is 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests. If you discount a 35-point win against Arizona State, the Bruins' average win margin in their other five victories is 4.6 points. Arizona is better than any of those foes the Bruins have narrowly beaten. Arizona has lost only once - and that was against USC right after the Wildcats sprung their huge upset of Oregon. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS on the road. Freshman quarterback Anu Solomon is coming on for Arizona. He threw five touchdown passes in sparking the Wildcats past Washington State, 59-37, on the road last week. The Wildcats' running backs are getting healthy and can take advantage of a UCLA defense that has given up more than 200 yards on the ground in three of its last four games. The Bruins' pass defense is worse than their run defense ranking 105th. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley hasn't had the monster year some were envisioning. |
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11-01-14 | Notre Dame -14.5 v. Navy | 49-39 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 54 m | Show | |
The Irish were idle last week. That's huge for a pair of reasons. It gives the Irish two weeks to stew over a bitter 31-27 road loss to second-ranked Florida State and gives them ample time to prepare for Navy's unique option offense. I see Notre Dame having a big game here. Navy leads the nation in rushing, but has no ability to come back from a big deficit since the Midshipmen lack any semblance of a passing attack. But will Notre Dame be able to build up a big lead? I see it happening. The Irish still have playoff incentive and they will be highly motivated after Navy nearly upset them at home last year while drawing Brian Kelly's anger for throwing chop blocks. The Irish lost several defensive linemen in that game because of those controversial blocks. Kelly hasn't forgotten. The previous two years - 2011 and 2012 - Notre Dame beat Navy by a combined margin of 82 points. Sparked by quarterback Everett Golson, Notre Dame is averaging nearly 450 yards on offense. Golson has accounted for 23 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Navy gives up 27.6 points per game and 411.5 yards of offense. The Midshipmen have only three sacks and just eight takeaways. Notre Dame ranks 12th in run defense. The Irish have experience handling Navy's option attack. They had breakdowns last year against it because of numerous defensive line injuries that were inflicted during the game. The Midshipmen don't have the athletes Notre Dame has, nor the depth. I can see them wearing down. Note, too, this isn't a true home game for Navy as it's being played in Landover, Md. |
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10-31-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -12 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
The Clippers weren't sharp in dispatching the undermanned Thunder, 93-90, at home last night. The Clippers will be less rusty tonight against their long-time city rival the Lakers. The Clippers are 7-1 in their last eight games against the Lakers winning the past three by an average of 35 points. They will make it a special point for new owner Steve Ballmer to bury the Lakers, who embarrassed them for years. The Lakers were terrible during preseason averaging just 86 points during their last six exhibition games. Their poor play and startling lack of talent has carried into the regular season where they have lost by an average of 19 points to the Rockets at home and to the Suns. The Clippers have a vastly better bench and a huge edge at point guard. The Lakers have yet to find a consistent No. 2 scorer behind Kobe Bryant. |
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10-31-14 | Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 v. Indiana Pacers | 97-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
The Pacers were able to get away with a starting lineup consisting of Solomon Hill, Luis Scola, Donald Sloan and C.J. Miles because they played the 76ers in their opener. But now the Pacers step up to face the Grizzlies minus David West and point guard George Hill. Remember, the Pacers also are without Paul George and the departed Lance Stephenson. Indiana's makeshift lineup is going to get exposed by the veteran, physical Grizzlies. Memphis has been one of the top defensive teams the past few years, including holding foes to the third-fewest points per game last season. The Grizzlies weren't happy with their defense in their 105-101 opening-game victory against the Timberwolves. Expect an intense effort from Memphis. Given their huge starting lineup edge that should be enough to ensure a point spread cover. Indiana has only covered seven of its last 22 home games. |
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10-30-14 | Utah Jazz +10.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
The Jazz are capable of playing better defense than they showed in last night's 104-93 home loss to the Rockets. The Jazz were beaten in the 3-point game as Houston made 14 of 27 from long distance while Utah missed 15 of 18 3-pointers. I see Utah tightening its perimeter defense, outrebounding the Mavericks who were seventh-from-the-bottom in rebounding margin last season and shooting better especially Gordon Hayward, who has caused problems for Dallas in the past. The youthful Jazz are going to experience growing pains again this season. But they have fresh legs right now so playing for the second time in 48 hours shouldn't hurt them. They are 4-1 ATS the past five times when coming off a double-digit home loss. Dallas is not a good home team versus the spread. The Mavericks failed to cover in eight of their last 10 regular season home games. This is their first home game of the season, which can be distracting and lead to overconfidence playing this weak opponent. The Mavericks face a tougher challenge in their next game when they play at New Orleans on Saturday. The Mavericks nearly upset San Antonio in their opener on Tuesday. However, the Mavericks were outrebounded, allowed the Spurs to shoot 53 percent from the floor and only had 17 field goals raising concern about stagnant ball movement. There's no reason for the Mavericks to win by a huge margin or show much of their playbook as they meet the Jazz again a week from Friday in Salt Lake City. A simple single-digit victory will suffice nicely for Dallas. |
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10-29-14 | Chicago Bulls -4 v. New York Knicks | Top | 104-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
New York's home-court advantage doesn't make up for this huge of a class difference. The Bulls are anxious to start this new season after last season's playoff disappointment. Chicago has gotten better with Derrick Rose healthy and the additions of Pau Gasol and rookie Doug McDermott. The Bulls have a much deeper bench than New York. The Knicks are going against the top defensive club in the NBA while adjusting to a triangle offense brought in by first-year coach Derrick Fisher. The Knicks struggled during preseason even giving up 120 points to the Bucks. J.R. Smith has yet to grasp the triangle and power forward Andrea Bargnani is out with a pulled hamstring. The Knicks are going to have problems rebounding against Joakim Noah. New York's starting unit of Carmelo Anthony, Ian Shumpert, Jose Calderon, Jason Smith and Samuel Dalembert never played together during preseason. Anthony is a superstar, but the other four are not legitimate NBA starters. |
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10-29-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
The Bucks won only 15 games last season - and weren't tanking. Their season was ruined by injuries. Now the Bucks are healthy and well under-the-radar. They have four good players, including the favorite for rookie-of-the-year in Jabari Parker. Milwaukee is going to be much improved. Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo are promising 19-year-olds who are budding stars. Brandon Knight is an underrated point guard, who will be helped by Jason Kidd as his coach. Larry Sanders is back after an injured and troubled season last year. The Hornets are better as underdogs than favorites. They were unable to establish a true rotation during preseason because of multiple injuries. Lance Stephenson missed the last four preseason games with a groin strain. If he plays, he'll be limited and rusty. Sixth man Gerald Henderson didn't play at all during the preseason and is probably out here, too. The Hornets rely on Al Jefferson in the paint. Sanders, though, is a top-blocker and can neutralize Jefferson on the defensive end. Given the Bucks' improvement and Hornets' injuries and lack of continuity during preseason this is an excellent time to get on the Bucks. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 23-44 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
All streaks must come to an end. I see the Packers ending New Orleans' 19-game home winning streak under Sean Payton and 13-game home winning streak on national TV in this prime time Sunday Night matchup. I have no doubts that Payton will have the Saints fired-up. But New Orleans isn't as good, nor playing nearly as well as Green Bay. The Packers have taken their game up a notch behind the flawless play of Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is averaging 36.3 and 352.5 yards per game during the last four weeks - all victories. The Saints defense has looked far more like their record-worst defense of two years ago than last year. Their secondary is weak especially without injured Jarius Byrd and prey to Rodgers, who has thrown 17 touchdown passes with no interceptions his last six games. The Saints rank 28th in points allowed and pass defense. Rodgers has a multitude of weapons with the emergence of rookie Davon Adams joining Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb plus a solid ground attack to keep things balanced. New Orleans is 2-4 and its record isn't a fluke. The Saints' only two victories were lackluster home wins at home against the Vikings, where rookie Teddy Bridgewater was making his first start, and versus the Buccaneers in overtime. Those two teams are a combined 3-10. Green Bay's defense isn't as good as it's offense and cornerback Sam Shields is out. But the Packers may have the most depth of any secondary in the NFL. Drew Brees is having a down year by his lofty standards. The Saints have a cluster injury problem at running back, their wide receivers aren't as good as Green Bay's and star tight end Jimmy Graham has been reduced to decoy status because of a shoulder injury. Brees also is without injured center Jonathan Goodwin. |