Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-07-17 | Michigan State +5 v. Michigan | 57-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Michigan State just beat Michigan, 70-62, on Jan. 29. Now the Wolverines are favored by this much? I'm not buying it. |
|||||||
02-07-17 | Alabama v. South Carolina -7 | 90-86 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
South Carolina has won four in a row. The Gamecocks rank No. 1 defensively in the SEC. They can easily keep Alabama in check. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in the league offensively. Alabama is reeling from a bad loss to in-state rival Auburn. The Tide has failed to cover in 12 of its last 17 SEC games.
|
|||||||
02-06-17 | Spurs -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 74-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
San Antonio has defeated Memphis nine straight times, covering seven of the nine. I expect the Spurs to continue their dominance again in this matchup. The Spurs have won 20 of their 25 road games. This is the opener of an eight-game road swing for them. The Spurs have won nine of their last 11 and rank with the Warriors and Cavaliers as one of the three best teams in the NBA. San Antonio gives up fewer points per game than the Grizzlies and outscores them by seven points a game. Memphis ranks last in shooting percentage, while San Antonio is second in shooting percentage and has the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Memphis is playing at home for the first time after going 4-2 in its six-game road trip that ended with a 107-99 victory against the Timberwolves Saturday night. The first game back from being gone so long is not a plus for the home Grizzlies, who could be a bit fat and happy after rallying from 19 points down to defeat Minnesota. The Grizzlies have failed to cover five of the last seven times following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when taking on an above .500 opponent. Monday Free Play Cavaliers at Wizards Under 220 Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
|
|||||||
02-05-17 | Colorado +7 v. California | 66-77 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
A tough schedule and tough luck made things rough in the early going for Colorado. The Buffaloes started 0-7 in the Pac-12. But four of those losses came by three or fewer points. Now things are turning around for the Buffaloes, winners of three in a row and getting outstanding play from senior guard Derrick White. The Buffaloes are catching an inflated spread here and worth taking. Cal has covered just one of its last six games while going 5-10 ATS at home this season.
|
|||||||
02-04-17 | UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe.
|
|||||||
02-04-17 | Portland v. BYU -19.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland was bad even before losing star player and leading scorer Alex Wintering for the season with a knee injury. But the Pilots have really fallen apart. They have become a near auto-fade. They are in the throngs of a nine-game losing streak going 2-7-1 ATS. Portland's last two losses have each come at home by 15 to Santa Clara and 16 to San Diego. BYU is a kill mood after losing to Gonzaga in its last game. The Cougars are 11-3-1 ATS following a loss.
|
|||||||
02-04-17 | Magic v. Hawks -7.5 | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
You have to go back to the day after Christmas to find the last time Orlando won consecutive games. I see a big letdown in store here for the Magic following their 102-94 home win against Toronto Friday night. That victory was just Orlando's third in its last 11 games and fifth in its past 19 games. This is the first time in three weeks the Magic are playing without rest. Orlando averages fewer than 100 points a game. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively. The Hawks have been inconsistent, but should be motivated following a 113-108 win at Houston two days ago when they came from 20 points down in the fourth quarter. A loss to the lowly Magic would just give that victory back. Atlanta has covered the last two times it was laying more than seven points. Saturday Free Play Jazz minus 7 1/2 hosting Hornets The Hornets are a below .500 team that plays in the Eastern Conference - making their 23-27 record look even worse - has trouble on the road and lacks consistent scoring behind Kemba Walker. And that's when the Hornets are healthy. The Hornets are far from healthy here and they are playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Jazz team in action for just the second time in seven days. Charlotte has to take on the league's No. 1 defensive team - both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage - with Walker questionable to play because of illness, main backup guard Ramon Sessions doubtful with a sore knee and center Cody Zeller out due to a quad injury. Zeller doesn't draw much accolades, but the Hornets are 1-11 without him this season. Charlotte is thin at center after dealing big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert to Milwaukee. The Hornets are going to start Frank Kaminsky at center against Rudy Gobert in a mismatch of monster proportions. Gobert may be the most underrated big man in basketball. He's posted 33 double-doubles this season. Gobert leads the league in blocks, is No. 2 in field goal percentage behind DeAndre Jordan - who's shooting range is two feet - and fifth in rebounding. Gobert will be aided on the boards by Derrick Favors, expected to play after missing the past two games. Walker played in Charlotte's last game, a 126-111 loss to Golden State this past Wednesday. Walker, though, clearly wasn't 100 percent. He may have had his worst game of the season connecting for just one field goal and scoring seven points, 15 below his season average. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS during their last 16 road matchups and 7-18-2 ATS when going against foes with a winning home mark. There is nothing here to suggest the Hornets can stay within single-digits of Utah.
|
|||||||
02-04-17 | San Jose State +11 v. New Mexico | 78-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
San Jose State has finished last the past three seasons since joining the Mountain West Conference. But the Spartans are much improved this season already exceeding last year's win total. The Spartans are keyed by perhaps the best player in the conference - power forward Brandon Clarke. The 6-foot-8 Clarke leads the Mountain West in scoring at 23.3 points a game. He also tops the conference in field goal percentage and blocked shots while ranking in the top five in rebounding. The Lobos are dealing with a cluster injury problem down two starters and a key reserve. One of those out is Tim Williams, the Lobos' second-leading scorer at 17.8 points. New Mexico has been plagued by sloppy ball handling committing 33 turnovers in its last two games. The Lobos are usually overvalued at home, too. They've failed to cover in five of their last six home contests.
|
|||||||
02-04-17 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -10.5 | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
The line is short considering Texas Arlington was minus 8 1/2 as a road favorite against Texas State when the teams met on Jan. 7. Texas State upset Texas Arlington winning 81-73. |
|||||||
02-04-17 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Southern Miss | 64-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
This line opened short. Western Kentucky is more consistent than Southern Mississippi and averages seven more points per game. The Golden Eagles are hampered by their poor shooting - under 40 percent from the field. This also is a letdown spot for the Golden Eagles after they stunned Marshall, 91-76, at home on Thursday.
|
|||||||
02-04-17 | Elon +5.5 v. College of Charleston | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
College of Charleston is a letdown spot after getting revenge Thursday nipping UN Wilmington, 67-66, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog. Elon has won five in a row and has covered eight of its last nine games. The Phoenix are especially tough as a road 'dog covering 16 of the last 21 in that capacity.
|
|||||||
02-04-17 | William & Mary +1.5 v. Towson | 80-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
William & Mary averages eight more points than Towson State. The Tribe is on a nice roll winning and covering the past four times in blowout fashion. The Tribe has covered in six of their last eight visits to Towson State. Towson State just edged Drexel, 104-103, in overtime on Thursday. This is a short turnaround from that huge win.
|
|||||||
02-03-17 | St. Peter's +9 v. Monmouth | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
St. Peter's is playing well covering six of its last seven. St. Peter's also is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Monmouth has a losing spread mark at home. The line is too high, which is the opinion of several sharps who follow this conference closely. I'm going to join them in taking the points. |
|||||||
02-02-17 | Warriors -8 v. Clippers | Top | 133-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
The Clippers got their mojo back by rolling past the Suns on Wednesday night. But the absence of Chris Paul will really be felt in this matchup. The Clippers don't have enough firepower to keep within single digits of the Warriors. Certainly the Warriors aren't going to bury LA by 46 points like they did on Saturday, but they still are vastly superior especially when playing well. And the Warriors are playing well winning 15 of their last 17 games with 10 of their last 11 victories coming by double-digits. Stephen Curry is on fire scoring 82 points in his last two games on 29 of 43 shooting from the floor and 20 of 30 from 3-point range. The Warriors have beaten the Clippers eight consecutive times. They will get their share of crowd support, too, in LA.
|
|||||||
02-02-17 | Santa Clara -5 v. Portland | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5. Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog. Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row.
|
|||||||
02-02-17 | UAB -5 v. UTEP | 59-63 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham's class difference should prove itself here. UAB has won seven of its last eight and is 7-2 in Conference USA. UTEP is coming off a surprising 91-68 road win against Marshall this past Saturday. That was just the third time the Miners have covered in their last 11 games. They are 1-5 ATS during their past six home games.
|
|||||||
02-02-17 | Portland State +4 v. Idaho | 72-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
Idaho upset Montana as seven-point road 'dogs in overtime this past Saturday. Now the Vandals are home where they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games. Portland State averages 14 more points per game than Idaho. The Vikings are off back-to-back losses the latter coming to Sacramento State in overtime. The Vandals should prove tough in this spot. They've covered six of the last seven times when going against an opponent with a winning home record.
|
|||||||
02-02-17 | Northern Arizona v. Idaho State -5 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
What does it tell you that the oddsmaker has installed Idaho State, the last-place team in the Big Sky Conference, as a decent-sized favorite against Northern Arizona? It tells me Idaho State is the right side here. The Bengals are in circle-the-wagons mode, have an excellent player in Ethan Telfair and catch Northern Arizona in a bad situational spot. The Lumberjacks just hosted Northern Colorado and North Dakota. Both were revenge games for the Lumberjacks. Northern Arizona won both games winning straight-up as six-point 'dogs to Northern Colorado and 9 1/2-point 'dogs to North Dakota this past Saturday. Northern Arizona takes on Big Sky leader Weber State on the road this Saturday. So this is both a letdown and look-ahead spot for Northern Arizona.
|
|||||||
02-02-17 | Hawks +9.5 v. Rockets | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The Hawks aren't going to go quietly here after getting whipped 116-93 by Miami last night. Look for the Hawks to ramp up their intensity level. Atlanta is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing without rest. Houston has had problems with the Hawks in the past losing the past six times against them while covering only once. The Hawks beat the Rockets by 15 points in their first meeting this season. The Rockets aren't playing as well as they were before when they went 20-2. They are just 5-7 during their last 12 games. Houston has failed to cover the past six times following a victory. James Harden hasn't been 100 percent either dealing with a sore knee. His poor shooting - 6 of 26 from the floor the past two games - reflects that.
|
|||||||
02-01-17 | Clippers -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak. Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul. The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points. The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them. Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that. Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks. New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating. It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January. This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's. The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards. The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times. |
|||||||
02-01-17 | Florida State +2 v. Miami (Fla) | 75-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a stop-the-pain game for Florida State, which has dropped two in a row. Miami is 3-14 ATS as a favorite - 1-8 ATS as home chalk - and coming off a huge 77-62 win over then sixth-ranked North Carolina. Florida State showed some positive signs in the second half of its loss to Syracuse in its last game. The Seminoles present a pressure defense that should cause problems to the Hurricanes, who ranked 260th in assist-to-turnover ratio.
|
|||||||
02-01-17 | Pacers v. Magic +3 | 98-88 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm not buying into the Pacers as road chalk. Indiana not only has failed to cover the past seven times in that role, but lost straight-up each time. Orlando has shown signs of improvement beating the Raptors on Sunday and falling to the improved Timberwolves in overtime on Monday. Both of those games were on the road. Now the Magic are home. It's Frank Vogel's first home game against the former team he coached. Evan Fournier, the Magic's leading scorer, also is back after missing seven games with a foot injury. He played 23 minutes against the Timberwolves and should be less rusty here.
|
|||||||
01-31-17 | Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play. Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th. The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests.
|
|||||||
01-30-17 | Cavs -4 v. Mavs | 97-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
In a word, no Dallas can't upset San Antonio and Cleveland on back-to-back days. The Cavaliers are playing better now. Dallas is playing better, too, after a 4-17 start. But the Mavericks don't have near the Cavaliers' talent being two-to-three levels behind them. Deron Williams isn't likely to play leaving the short-handed Dallas backcourt in the hands of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Neither is an NBA starting caliber guard. Cleveland buried Dallas, 128-90, when the teams last met on Nov. 25.
|
|||||||
01-30-17 | Western Carolina v. Mercer -13 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests.
|
|||||||
01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss. Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances.
|
|||||||
01-28-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Heat | 103-116 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for the Pistons, who haven't played since Monday when they lost 109-104 at home to the Kings. The Pistons have been pointing to this game since. Miami is off an upset of the Bulls in Chicago last night. The Heat accomplished that without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable here. The Heat have lost six of the past eight times when playing without rest. The Pistons have matched up well to the Heat winning by nine and 23 points.
|
|||||||
01-28-17 | Kings v. Hornets -7 | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Despite losing Rudy Gay, the Kings have proven tough on the road in their last three games upsetting the Pistons as a seven-point 'dog, stunning the Cavaliers as a 10 1/2-point 'dog and covering as a 4 1/2-point 'dog in a 115-111 overtime loss to the Pacers last night. But now the Kings have reached the end of their long road swing. This marks their sixth away matchup in nine days. It's too much of a leap of faith to believe the Kings - traditionally a horrible road club - can have much left for Charlotte. The Hornets desperately need this game. They've lost three in a row and take off for a three-game West Coast road trip following this game where they will take on the Trail Blazers, Warriors and Jazz. Charlotte has dropped its past seven road games. Hence, the importance of this home matchup for the Hornets. Charlotte has won four of its last six home contests with one of the losses coming to the Warriors. During this span, the Hornets have defeated the Thunder by 11, Trail Blazers by 22 and Raptors by 35. So they're certainly capable of covering this mid-size number against the lottery-bound Kings.
|
|||||||
01-28-17 | Providence +8.5 v. Marquette | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Providence has played a tough schedule and is at its best as a road 'dog covering 13 of the last 18 times in that role. Marquette is in a prime letdown spot after its dramatic home victory against top-ranked Villanova on Tuesday. Marquette historically is bad in this role, too, going 5-13 ATS at home versus a sub .500 opponent and is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times when laying between seven and 12 1/2 points.
|
|||||||
01-27-17 | Green Bay v. Oakland -7.5 | 80-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Look for Oakland to bounce back from an 88-67 loss to Wright State. The Golden Grizzlies have too strong of an offense to have another bad shooting game. Oakland averages 10 more points than its opponent when playing at home. The Golden Grizzlies also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 games versus foes with a winning record. Green Bay is having a good season, but have a losing road record. The Phoenix have been outscored by six points per game on the road. Oakland scored 111 points in each of its games against Green Bay last season winning by 16 at Green Bay and 18 at home. So this spread isn't out of line.
|
|||||||
01-27-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -4 | Top | 86-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto. Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. |
|||||||
01-27-17 | Harvard -6 v. Cornell | 77-71 | Push | 0 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Harvard is playing well winning nine of its last 10 games. The Crimson have covered in each of their last six games. |
|||||||
01-26-17 | Pacers v. Wolves -3 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are playing their best ball going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Tom Thibodeau has improved Minnesota's defense and Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are legitimate stars. The Pacers have been horrid on the road covering only 27 percent of their away games. This is the Pacers' seventh different venue in a row. Indiana may be short-handed in the backcourt, too, with Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey each questionable with injuries.
|
|||||||
01-25-17 | UCLA -5.5 v. USC | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season. The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests.
|
|||||||
01-25-17 | Kings v. Cavs -11 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings. So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons. The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. |
|||||||
01-24-17 | Virginia v. Notre Dame +1 | 71-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
This is the time Notre Dame finally beats Virginia. The Irish are home. That can't be underestimated. They are 12-0 on their homecourt. |
|||||||
01-24-17 | Clippers -3 v. 76ers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I can't see the 76ers beating the Clippers without Joel Embiid, who is out with knee soreness. The 76ers had won eight of nine, but lost to the Hawks on Saturday, 110-93, when Embiid was out. Philadelphia isn't nearly as good without Embiid, the likely rookie of the year award winner. Philadelphia is 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS when Embiid has sat out this season. The Clippers are learning to live without Chris Paul. They upset the Hawks in Atlanta last night, 115-105, and don't want to give that great victory away with a loss to the lowly 76ers, a team they have beaten the past nine times by a victory margin of 21.9 points. The Clippers should give a full effort since they don't play against until Saturday when they play at the Warriors. The Clippers should get an added boost as Blake Griffin is expected to play after missing the last 18 games with a knee injury.
|
|||||||
01-23-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | 71-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Arlington averages 86 points at home. That's a big reason why the Mavericks are 7-0 at home. They have too much offense and rebounding for Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are playing in their second road game in three days. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 Sun Belt Conference games and can't be trusted on the road where they have been inconsistent.
|
|||||||
01-23-17 | Kings v. Pistons -5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
The Pistons have won their last six home games and have short revenge having lost to the Kings at Sacramento, 100-94, less than two weeks ago. Detroit is playing well and should have its full focus not playing against until Saturday. The Kings are playing in their third road game in four days. They are down their second-best player, Rudy Gay. Despite beating the Pistons in the first matchup, the Kings are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Detroit.
|
|||||||
01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 139 h 1 m | Show |
As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
|
|||||||
01-22-17 | Suns v. Raptors -11.5 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Toronto is 6-7 in its last 13 games and off a 113-78 embarrassing loss to the Hornets on the road this past Friday. That was Toronto's lowest-scoring game of the season. I see the Raptors bouncing back in a big way against the Suns, who are in a rare fat-and-happy state. The Suns just nipped the Knicks, 107-105, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. They return to the desert for a four-game homestand following this matchup. Despite only scoring 78 points against the Hornets, the Raptors are the third-highest scoring team in the league. Phoenix allows the second-most points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a foe with a losing road record. They also are 7-3 ATS following a SU loss. The Raptors have added revenge motivation, too. The Suns defeated them 99-91 on Dec. 29. This marks the Suns' third road game in four days. It's also an early start time for the Suns.
|
|||||||
01-21-17 | UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 105-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss. Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage. The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge. |
|||||||
01-21-17 | Northern Iowa +3 v. Southern Illinois | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
It's been a down year for Northern Iowa. That's for sure. But the Panthers finally have a little momentum winning two in a row. They still can play defense allowing 67.3 points per game and are well-coached. This is a prideful team. I'm going to ride them here in a 'dog role. |
|||||||
01-21-17 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Maybe it was celebrating Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming the first Milwaukee All-Star starter in 31 years. Maybe it was because the Bucks are young. Maybe it was because Orlando was long overdue. Whatever the case, the Bucks were buried 112-96 by the Magic in Orlando Friday. That was a bad loss for the Bucks and their coach, Jason Kidd, let them know holding a closed locker room meeting for more than a half hour following that defeat. The Bucks hold a talent edge against the Heat and I expect Milwaukee to play much better today. The Bucks have won and covered in seven of their last nine games against Miami, including defeating the Heat, 116-108, eight days ago at home. Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker - who has scored 20 or more points six times in the last eight games - give Milwaukee two of the three best players on the court. The Bucks also have a frontcourt scoring advantage on the Heat despite Miami having Hassan Whiteside and a stronger bench courtesy of Greg Monroe and former Heat Michael Beasley. The Bucks have proven themselves on the road as since Christmas they have beaten the Pistons, Bulls, Knicks and Spurs away from Bradley Center. All of those teams are better than the Heat.
|
|||||||
01-21-17 | Michigan State +5.5 v. Indiana | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
I like Michigan State as a 'dog here. Indiana already has lost SU at home to Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans have been idle for a week so they will be well rested and prepared under Tom Izzo. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan State by more than four points since 2013. |
|||||||
01-20-17 | Jazz -5 v. Mavs | 112-107 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Not only does Utah have the No. 1 defense and Dallas the worst offense, but the spot highly favors the Jazz. Utah last played on Monday. The Mavericks played last night losing 99-95 to Miami on the road. Dallas is 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS when playing in the second of back-to-back games. This also marks Dallas' third game in four days. The Mavericks are ill equipped to handle this kind of load with a veteran, over-the-hill roster. The Jazz are playing at a high level having won four in a row. Not only do the Jazz have the stingiest defense in the league, but their offense has picked up. They are averaging 107.5 points during their winning streak helped by having George Hill back at point guard.
|
|||||||
01-20-17 | Warriors -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
You must have a great offense and outstanding 3-point defense to beat the Rockets. The Warriors have both of that leading the NBA in scoring and 3-point defense. They also have the superior roster. Add this up plus throw in a revenge factor and a Rockets fatigue factor and the Warriors should cover this mid-sized spread. Houston is playing for the third time in four days. The Rockets may be without third-leading scorer Ryan Anderson. The power forward has missed the past two games due to illness. The Rockets edged Golden State, 132-127, in overtime last month in the team's first meeting. But if the Warriors are on their "A" game no team can beat them. Golden State has won nine of its last 10. In their last two games, the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers by 35 points and Thunder by 21 points forcing 10 turnovers from Russell Westbrook. The Thunder could make just 8 of 28 shots from 3-point range, an ominous sign for the Rockets, who heavily rely on shooting 3-pointers and playing up-tempo. Up next for the Warriors are games against lottery teams the Magic and Heat. So the Warriors' full focus should be on display.
|
|||||||
01-20-17 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Akron | 63-70 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The last four games between these two teams has been decided by four points or less and Eastern Michigan has covered each of them. Eastern Michigan is somewhat under the radar with an excellent big man, 6-foot-10 James Thompson. He's third in the MAC in rebounds and is second in field goal percentage. Eastern Michigan has the experience, height and good line value to get the cover here if not win outright. |
|||||||
01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
Optimism is fading for the Kings as they've endured a 1-5 homestand in their new state-of-the-art arena. This is the last game of the Kings' extended homestand before they embark on an eight-game road swing. So this matchup is absolutely crucial for the Kings. Indiana is 6-1 in its last seven games. But the Pacers also have failed to cover 13 of their 18 road contests this season and their recent success isn't as impressive as it looks on closer inspection. Let's first start with the Kings. In four of their last five games, they've played the Clippers, Warriors, Cavaliers and Thunder. They played those teams tough, but lost. Their lone home win during their past five games came against the Pistons. The Pacers are far closer to the Pistons than they are to the other teams the Kings lost to. None of the six teams the Pacers beat during their 6-1 streak holds a winning record. The Pacers played five of their past seven games at home. But Indiana is one of those teams with a huge home/road split - 16-5 SU home, 5-14 SU road. The Pacers' lone loss during this span came in London against Denver by 28 points. It occurred six days ago. That's significant. Having made numerous overseas trips I know it often takes more than a week to get your legs and internal clock working properly. Now the Pacers are playing at their fourth straight different venue and third different time zone traveling to the West Coast. Don't read much into Indiana's last game, a 98-95 home win against New Orleans on Monday. The Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to a hip injury during the middle of the third quarter. Still, the Pelicans could have won if they didn't miss nine of their last 10 shots. It's another red flag for the Pacers that their bench was outscored 51-19 by the Pelicans. Indiana got lucky missing Davis for 1 1/2 quarters. If Davis isn't the best big man in basketball than DeMarcus Cousins is. Rudy Gay is back healthy, too, for the Kings. Sacramento has had the Pacers' number lately, too, winning the past four meetings and covering five of the last six in the series.
|
|||||||
01-18-17 | Missouri State v. Indiana State +1.5 | 73-68 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Big revenge spot here for Indiana State, which lost in overtime to Missouri State on New Year's Eve. This has been a home team series with the host going 6-1-1 ATS. Missouri State is playing on the road for the second time in four days. The Bears are 3-8-1 ATS when playing an opponent with an above .500 record at home. The Bears also have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've been favored.
|
|||||||
01-17-17 | San Diego State -5 v. UNLV | Top | 64-51 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team. |
|||||||
01-16-17 | Green Bay +8.5 v. Valparaiso | 56-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
I see value here with Green Bay, which is 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 Horizon League games. Valparaiso is down from last season. The Crusaders' adjusted defensive efficiency has dropped 95 places, their 3-point shooting percentage is down five percent and their block percentage has dropped 253 places. The Crusaders lack depth and have backcourt issues with more turnovers than assists. They also have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games
|
|||||||
01-16-17 | Blazers v. Wizards -3.5 | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Washington is red-hot at home winning 11 in a row at Verizon Center while going 10-1 ATS in those games. Portland is not a good road club losing 15 of 22 away from home. The Trail Blazers are 5-8 against Eastern Conference foes and are going to be bothered by this early East Coast starting time. The Trail Blazers' strength is their backcourt, but the Wizards match that with John Wall and Bradley Beal.
|
|||||||
01-15-17 | USC v. Colorado -3 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
At 0-4, Colorado is desperate to get its first Pac-12 victory. I see that happening here against a USC team minus injured big man Benny Boatwright and who plays much worse on the road. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Colorado had to play its first three conference games on the road and then drew fourth-ranked UCLA at home. The Buffaloes are 7-1 against USC since joining the Pac-12. They have covered five of the past times versus the Trojans.
|
|||||||
01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 162 h 36 m | Show |
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game. |
|||||||
01-15-17 | Packers +4 v. Cowboys | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 150 h 57 m | Show | |
Even if Jordy Nelson can't play, I still like the Packers here. Green Bay is riding a lot of momentum with a seven-game winning streak, has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing at a high level and Dallas lacks playoff experience and could be rusty. Only once in the last six years have the Cowboys made the postseason. That was two seasons ago and they lost to the Packers at Lambeau Field. This game is in Dallas, but it's a far better bargain to get this many points because of that. Dallas hasn't been played a really meaningful game in three weeks. The Cowboys closed 1-5 ATS with three of their last four victories coming by six, two and five points. They lack Green Bay's big-game, playoff experience. Their quarterback is a rookie. Aaron Rodgers has been a monster down the stretch with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions during the last seven weeks. This total should be 21-0, but Davante Adams dropped two touchdown passes versus the Bears. Green Bay is averaging 35 points during its last five games. They've shredded three elite defenses - the Vikings, Seahawks and Giants - during this span. Those three teams all rank in the top five in either fewest yards or fewest points allowed. Dallas' defense isn't nearly as good as those teams. Green Bay swept the Giants this season, a team Dallas went 0-2 against. Despite a patchwork secondary, the Packers held in check and frustrated Odell Beckham Jr. They can do the same to Dez Bryant. The Packers have a wily well-respected defensive coordinator in Dom Capers and three guys who can rush the passer - a now healthy Clay Matthews, a still effective Julius Peppers and blossoming star Nick Perry. The Cowboys' best offensive lineman, left tackle Tyron Smith, is dealing with an MCI sprain. The Packers were five-point home favorites when they hosted the Cowboys in mid-October. Green Bay wasn't play well then and the Cowboys were. Now look at the spread. The Packers are peaking and the youthful Cowboys have the weight of the world on their shoulders.
|
|||||||
01-14-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7.5 | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Unbeaten Gonzaga has another powerhouse team. I believe the Zags are for real and a level higher than St. Mary's. I would lay single digits with the Zags at home against the Gaels. St. Mary's can't match the Bulldogs' scoring and height. The Zags have covered 13 of their last 16 conference games and 78 percent of their past 28 overall games. Gonzaga has balanced scoring and the height with five players 6-foot-10 or taller to key on St. Mary's big man Jock Lonsdale. |
|||||||
01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Simply put this is too many points for the Patriots to lay against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has held their last seven foes to 18.1 points per game. Tom Brady remains an upper elite quarterback. But he doesn't have his most potent weapon, injured Rob Gronkowski, and is facing the No. 2 ranked pass defense. The Texans posted their 18.1 average during the home stretch facing upper tier quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers on the road and Andrew Luck on the road. Jadeveon Clowney finally lived up to his vast potential helped make up for the loss J.J. Watt. He provides a strong pass rush along with Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a number of former Patriots players and coaches, including still effective nose guard Vince Wilfork and coach Bill O'Brien. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a seven-game win streak. The only playoff team, though, they played during this span was the Dolphins. It's not exactly sharpening your skills beating the 49ers, Jets twice and, Rams during the last seven weeks of the regular season. In terms of facing offensive production, the Patriots were ranked last by Football Outsiders. The Patriots have built their fancy defensive numbers based in large part by playing the easiest schedule of offensive opponents. So this is taking more than two touchdowns with a clear superior defense, a spread range that rarely happens in that instance. It's fair to point out that Houston is another weak offense that New England draws. True. The Patriots blanked the Texans, 27-0, in early September at home with a third-string rookie quarterback. Some of that fell on O'Brien, who coached a horrendous game playing not to lose rather than to win. O'Brien is smart enough to have learned from his mistake. The Texans picked up some needed confidence in Brock Osweiler during their 27-14 playoff victory against Oakland last week. Osweiler has proven serviceable the past couple of games since regaining his starting job. He has the best wide receiver on the field in DeAndre Hopkins and an above runner in Lamar Miller. So the Texans have weapons. Bill Belichick's goal isn't to punish his former assistant O'Brien by running up a score. He just wants to get his Patriots quickly out of this game with a victory. Belichick isn't interested in style points. Only twice in their last 11 playoff games, have the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.
|
|||||||
01-13-17 | Hornets -5.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
It's weird to write this, but the 76ers are actually in a letdown spot after coming from 17 points down to nip the Knicks at the buzzer during their last game two days ago. That was Philly's 11th win of the season passing their victory total of a year ago. It also was the 76ers' second consecutive victory. They haven't won three games in a row all season. The Hornets are in stop-the-pain mode after three losses in a row with the last two occurring on the road against the Spurs and Rockets. Charlotte hasn't been in action since Tuesday. Maybe Nicolas Batum returns after missing the last two games with a knee injury. That would be a bonus, but I like the Hornets even if Batum doesn't play. This is a rare game when the 76ers' opponent is taking them fully serious and considering this an important game. That's the case with Charlotte. The Hornets are middle-of-the-road both offensively and defensively. They are well coached and are leading the NBA in forcing turnovers for a fourth straight season. They are two levels higher than the 76ers and won't lack motivation here.
|
|||||||
01-12-17 | UC-Irvine -6 v. UC-Santa Barbara | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Cal Davis and UC Irvine are the two best teams in the Big West Conference. Santa Barbara is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-11. The Gauchos lost 73-47 to Cal Davis in their last game. Now they draw Irvine. I'm not looking for a 26-point Anteater victory, but I do think they will win easily by double-digits. Cal Irvine is playing well riding a four-game win streak. The Anteaters rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Santa Barbara is a very poor shooting team, which extends to free throws. The Anteaters' are 65-3 when holding opponents to 60 points or less, including 7-1 this season. Irvine holds major edges here in defense, rebounding and bench strength. Santa Barbara has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 games. Irvine is 17-5 ATS versus sub .500 opponents and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite. Some of this can be explained by their strong bench, which has outscored opponent's reserves by 12 points a game. That margin increases to nearly 15 a game when you factor just the last nine games. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos, 61-52, at Santa Barbara last January, but lost the rematch at home last Jan. 30. So the Anteaters should be focused.
|
|||||||
01-09-17 | Troy State +6.5 v. Georgia State | 80-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Troy is the more experienced and better team here. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. The Trojans played USC tough and is averaging nearly 80 points during their last five games. Troy also is a much better free throw shooting team than Georgia State, which is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Panthers are still trying to recover from losing several key players from a year ago.
|
|||||||
01-08-17 | Wichita State v. Northern Iowa +10.5 | 80-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
OK, pile on Northern Iowa. The Panthers are just 5-9 and averaging a puny 63.8 points a game. Wichita State is coming off consecutive blowout home victories against Bradley and Drake. All of this, along with early market activity, has caused the Panthers to be undervalued here. Northern Iowa still plays outstanding defense. They are an excellent 'dog in this spot being home, well-coached and playing at their slow pace desperate for a conference victory. The Panthers are going to do everything it takes to control tempo here. This is a team that did win 23 games last season and knows how to win big games. Wichita State isn't so dominant on the road. The Shockers failed to cover in their lone Missouri Valley Conference away game beating Indiana State by eight as a 10 1/2-point favorite. Indiana State is worse than Northern Iowa. Only twice in the past 10 games against Wichita State have the Panthers lost by double-digits at home. The Shockers' non-home victories have come versus suspect defensive teams not elite opponents such as Michigan State and Louisville.
|
|||||||
01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -9.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 145 h 31 m | Show |
Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins It would be nice to get some line value, but that's not realistic in the NFL especially in the playoffs. Anyways, I don't see how the Dolphins can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in January. I trust the Steelers enough to win by double-digits. The Dolphins have many negatives. The Steelers have many positives. Miami's negatives: Traveling into cold weather. A career backup quarterback in Matt Moore. Even if Ryan Tannehill somehow gets clearance, his mobility will be restricted and he'll be rusty. The Dolphins are 10-6, but minus 17 in scoring differential. The Dolphins were blown out by the Patriots and Ravens. They gave up a staggering 589 yards to the Bills. They barely were able to squeak past one-win Cleveland and two-win San Francisco in home games. The Dolphins are without two of their best players, center Mike Pouncey and safety Rashad Jones. They also have other injuries at linebackers and cornerback. Playoff inexperience. The Dolphins last made the postseason in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2000. Pittsburgh's positives: The Steelers are home, their superstars are rested and the team is peaking on a seven-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger plays far better at home. Pittsburgh is 16-4 with Roethlisberger under center the last three years at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season is 19-to-5. Le'Veon Bell is one of the three-best running backs in the NFL. He should be in line for a huge game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in run defense and are down several linebackers. The Dolphins also don't have a cornerback who can come close to matching up against Antonio Brown. The only home games Pittsburgh has lost this season were to the Patriots without Roethlisberger and to the Cowboys. The Dolphins are far, far below their teams. |
|||||||
01-07-17 | Jazz -3 v. Wolves | 94-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
Look for the Jazz to make it five straight victories against the Timberwolves. Utah is rested and plays far better defense than Minnesota giving up an average of 10 fewer points per game than Minnesota. |
|||||||
01-07-17 | Knicks v. Pacers -7 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
The timing is bad here for the Knicks playing for the third time in four days. The Knicks are off a grueling home-and-away series against the Bucks, who they beat 116-111, in Milwaukee last night. Star power forward Kristaps Porzingis returned from a three-game absence caused by an Achilles injury to help spark the Knicks. However, his minutes are likely to be limited playing without rest. The Knicks are careful with their prized young star. The Knicks catch the Pacers playing their best ball. Indiana is looking to win a season-best fifth game in a row. Indiana is averaging 117.5 points during its win streak. The Knicks are allowing 112.1 points during their last seven games. The Pacers have been bad on the road, but excellent at home winning 14 of 19 games. New York has lost eight in a row at Indiana.
|
|||||||
01-07-17 | Furman +9 v. Chattanooga | 64-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Tennessee Chattanooga hasn't been playing well this season. The Moccasins aren't a fast-paced team either. So it's not a big surprise they are terrible when installed as a mid-size favorite failing to cover the past eight times when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman, on the other hand, is very good in an underdog role especially in this spread range where the Paladins have covered the past six times when getting between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman has four starters back from last season and showed its competitiveness when stepping up losing by just six points to Michigan and Georgia as double-digit road 'dogs. The Paladins have covered the past four in this series winning twice straight-up and never losing by more than eight during this span. Furman has covered all four of its true road contests this season.
|
|||||||
01-06-17 | Knicks +5.5 v. Bucks | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
The Knicks should have beaten the Bucks at Madison Square Garden two days ago. They lost 105-104 when Giannis Antetokounmpo hit a jumper at the buzzer after he should have been called for violating a five-second rule. New York blew a 16-point lead in that game and have now lost six in a row. The Knicks lost that game minus their star power forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is their version of Antetokounmpo. Both are rising stars. Porzingis has missed the last three games with a sore Achilles. But he practiced on Thursday and I expect him to play today. Even if he doesn't, I still like the Knicks here in this circle-the-wagons, short revenge spot. The Knicks played well and hard against the Bucks Carmelo Anthony broke out of his shooting slump to score 30 points pull down 11 rebounds and dish off seven assists. The Knicks certainly are not outclassed here.
|
|||||||
01-06-17 | 76ers +11.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The Celtics escaped with just a one-point win when these teams last met. The 76ers didn't have Joel Embiid in that game either. The Celtics have been nothing special at home going 9-6 SU and 6-9 against the spread. |
|||||||
01-05-17 | Suns v. Mavs -6 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Prideful, veteran and now healthy at last, Dallas is coming on. Dallas is 9-11 in its last 20 games after opening 2-13.
Dallas rolled past the Lakers and Wizards and lost by singe-digits to the Warriors in their last three games. The Suns are 4-16 on the road playing for the third in four days, while this is just the Mavericks' second game in six days. The Mavericks swept the Suns last season winning by an average of 13 points. This is an opponent they have the confidence and veteran savvy to handle - and cover a mid-size margin. |
|||||||
01-05-17 | Davidson +1.5 v. George Washington | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Sharp money has come on Davidson and I agree. The Wildcats have a strong recent history in this spread range covering eight of the last 10 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wildcats also have covered 29 of the last 41 times on the road against a foe with a winning home mark. George Washington has covered just one of its last seven home games. The Wildcats are highly motivated having lost straight-up as an 11-point home favorite against Richmond in their last game.
|
|||||||
01-03-17 | Grizzlies -3 v. Lakers | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are coming off their best December ever while the Lakers are 2-15 in their last 17 games. Marc Gasol may not play because of a sore ankle, but Mike Conley is back in the lineup. The well coached Grizzlies have beaten the Lakers 10 of the last 11 times. Memphis plays at the Clippers on Wednesday and at the Warriors on Friday so it can't afford to take a loss here. Memphis also has covered in 11 of its last 13 Western Conference games. The Grizzlies rank No. 2 defensively. They give up 13 fewer points per game than the Lakers. |
|||||||
01-01-17 | Packers -3 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 107 h 57 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Packers are peaking while the Lions are sinking. Green Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and has the confidence of already beating Detroit this season and of having made the playoffs the past seven seasons. Detroit has lost two in a row and has a history of choking. Jordy Nelson has regained his pre-knee surgery star status and it's sparked the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers still is in his prime, has found a reliable ground option in Ty Montgomery and has the best pass-protecting offensive line in football. The Lions were torched this past Monday by the Cowboys giving up 42 points. Detroit has just 14 takeaways and 25 sacks on the season. Their secondary is beat-up likely to be without their top cornerback, Darius Slay, and nickel back. They are extremely weak at three of the defensive backfield spots. Slay is dealing with a hamstring injury, one of the worst injuries a cornerback can have. He'll be a liability if he plays because he's not close to 100 percent. The Packers are going to get their share of points here. The key question is can the Lions keep up with their mediocre offense. Detroit lacks Green Bay's offensive personnel. Detroit's offensive line is merely average and its running backs are below par. The Lions have no star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford has made the Lions offense go as he's proven he's an above average quarterback and not just an inconsistent gunslinger who sometimes flashes. However, Stafford has been playing the last couple of weeks with a dislocation and torn ligaments in the middle fingers of his passing hand. This has forced him to play with a glove on his passing hand and he hasn't been effective because of it throwing more wobbly passes rather than tight spirals. In the last two games, Stafford's completion percentage has been 61.5 percent and 56.5 percent when on the season his percentage is 65.5. Stafford needs to have a high completion percentage because the Lions offense has been geared on short passes ever since the middle of last season when they made a change in offensive coordinators going to Jim Bob Cooter.
|
|||||||
01-01-17 | Raiders +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 26 m | Show |
The line has been over adjusted due to Derek Carr's injury. The Raiders are the superior team and have great incentive to win the division. The Broncos are out of playoff contention, quite a letdown for the defending Super Bowl champions. Carr was having an MVP season. Matt McGloin is a wild card. However, the Raiders still have an above average offensive line, good running backs and one of the better wide receiving tandems in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Broncos can't generate any offense. Their running attack is feeble and now it appears they will be starting Paxton Lynch, which kills their passing game. I would take McGloin -sight unseen - above the inexperienced Lynch. The Raiders are plus 18 in turnover ratio. The Raiders outrushed the Broncos, 218-33, in winning the first meeting, 30-20, in Week 9. Denver's ground game is just as bad. Denver's defense still is very good, but has lost its dominance. The Raiders have proven themselves as road warriors going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 away games. They have a good spread history at Denver, too, going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits.
|
|||||||
01-01-17 | Seahawks -9.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -105 | 138 h 4 m | Show |
Decimated San Francisco has lost 18 players for the season, including Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is going to have problems trying to figure out Seattle's defense, which does a great job of containing dual-threat quarterbacks, and doesn't have any reliable weapons anymore with Hyde getting hurt last week. The 49ers have covered just three of their last 14 games. Their defense is worn down from multiple injuries and being on the field way too much. A healthy Russell Wilson can take advantage. Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, but the 49ers are one defense they can control. The Seahawks will be fired up, too, after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home to the Cardinals. Pete Carroll certainly doesn't want to enter the playoffs off two straight poor performances and with playoff positioning still at stake. The 49ers pulled out their second win of the season this past Saturday against the Rams. They're totally outmatched here.
|
|||||||
01-01-17 | Saints +7 v. Falcons | 32-38 | Win | 100 | 136 h 13 m | Show | |
Matt Ryan is in the MVP discussion and the Falcons are going to score the most points in franchise history. But the Saints also are going to get their points here - if not score more than Atlanta. As outstanding as Ryan has been this season, he's trumped by Drew Brees, who has thrown for more yards and touchdown passes than Ryan. The Saints offense is operating at peak efficiency scoring on 14 of their last 22 possession during their last two games against respectable defenses the Buccaneers and Cardinals. New Orleans has scored 79 points during the last two weeks. New Orleans is improved on defense, too. The Saints have held their last 12 opponents to 120 yards or less rushing. A return to health of underrated Sheldon Rankins and Dannell Ellerbee have upgraded their defense. This is a long-time rivalry. So the Saints aren't going to lack motivation in what could be the final time Sean Payton and Brees are together. New Orleans has covered eight of its last nine road games. Atlanta hasn't been dominant at home with a 4-3 mark and losing spread mark. The Saints have won in five of their last seven visits to Georgia Dome.
|
|||||||
01-01-17 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Rams | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
The Cardinals still have pride playing for Bruce Arians. They hold big matchup edges on the Rams and I expect them to show up against the Rams, who have yet to cover a spread since Jared Goff became quarterback. The Cardinals are a top heavy blitzing team. Goff has yet to display good pocket presence. I see him skittish in the pocket here.
The Rams just want this season to end. Carson Palmer has been playing better and David Johnson is a monster who can set a bunch of records here. LA has allowed 16 touchdown passes in their last six games. The Rams are down their best wideout, Kenny Britt. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
There are plenty of reasons why I like the Grizzlies to beat the Kings starting with that they are the much superior defensive team. Memphis ranks No. 1 in giving up the fewest points per 100 possessions and is No. 2 in fewest road points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The Grizzlies open a four-game West Coast trip here with a lot of confidence and intensity. They lost 96-92 to the Kings at home on Dec. 16. The loss was especially tough because the Kings are coached by former Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger. I like Joerger. But I also like David Fizdale, who is doing a tremendous job coaching the Grizzlies this season. Memphis just rolled past Oklahoma City, 114-80, at home on Thursday. That was a season-low in points for the Thunder. Russell Westbrook couldn't do anything against a Grizzlies defense keying on him. Westbrook had zero assists and six turnovers. The Grizzlies won that game by 34 points despite not having Mike Conley. It's a bonus if Conley plays here, but I'm fine with Memphis if he doesn't. Marc Gasol is going to play. Gasol could be the Comeback Player of the Year. The Grizzlies are 8-3 when Gasol plays and Conley doesn't. Sacramento is heavily reliant on its superstar, DeMarcus Cousins. Stop Cousins and you stop the Kings because they don't have enough good pieces especially with Rudy Gay bothered by a hip injury that has kept him out of seven of the last eight games. Portland just rolled the Kings, 102-89, at home this past Wednesday. The Trail Blazers heavily focused on Cousins, holding him to 8 of 19 shooting from the floor. The rest of the Kings couldn't pick up the slack. When you have to rely on Garrett Temple and Matt Barnes for heavy scoring you're in trouble. That's the scenario I envision in this game especially given then Memphis is a far better defensive team than Portland. The Grizzlies have covered 10 of their last 12 Western Conference games and are 4-1 ATS during their last five visits to Sacramento.
|
|||||||
12-31-16 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 88 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl pedigree can't be underestimated. Georgia Tech and its veteran coach, Paul Johnson, know all about bowl competition. Georgia Tech has been to a bowl during 19 of the last 20 years. Kentucky hasn't been in a bowl game since 2010. The Wildcats are just relieved to received a bowl bid. The Wildcats' season was made when they upset in-state rival Louisville, 41-38. Note, though, Louisville gained 561 yards on the Wildcats rushing for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. SEC teams such as Kentucky don't face triple option offenses such as Georgia Tech's. I don't see the Wildcats being able to stop the Yellow Jackets. Kentucky surrenders more than 31 points per game. Their rush defense ranks 109th and their total defense is 89th allowing more than 442 yards per game. Georgia Tech ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards averaging 257.4. The Yellow Jackets have come on after a slow start to go 5-1. I like the experience and dual threat ability of Yellow Jackets quarterback Justin Thomas. I like Johnson as a coach. Quarterback and coach are two edges Georgia Tech has going. Kentucky lost by three points at home to fellow SEC foe Georgia while Georgia Tech defeated the Bulldogs on the road.
|
|||||||
12-30-16 | Bulls v. Pacers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
The Pacers are in circle-the-wagons mode having dropped four in a row, including a 90-85 road loss to the Bulls this past Monday. Indiana has lost 13 of 17 on the road, but is 11-5 at home. The Pacers have won five of their last six home contests, including defeating the Clippers by 21 points and Hornets by 16 during this span. Their backcourt has gotten healthier with the return of Monta Ellis and Paul George broke out of his slump with 34 points in the Pacers' last game a road loss to the Wizards two days ago. Chicago has lost 10 of its 16 road games, including going 0-5 SU and ATS this month. This is a rare week day game, which works against the visitor. The Bulls just squeaked past the lowly Nets by two at home in their last game two days ago thanks to Jimmy Butler, who tweaked his ankle in that game and may not be 100 percent. The Bulls have failed to cover the past seven times following a victory.
|
|||||||
12-29-16 | Mavs +3 v. Lakers | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
The record shows the Lakers are better than the Mavericks. LA is 12-23. Dallas is 9-23. But what the overall record doesn't indicate is the Mavericks are healthier and because of that are playing better. After a brutal 3-15 start, Dallas is 6-8 in its last 14 games. The Lakers have been the opposite. They began the year surprisingly well, but are 2-13 this month. Dallas has owned the Lakers winning the last 11 times. This includes a 109-97 Dallas win at Staples Center last month when the Lakers were playing much better and Dallas was playing much worse. Andrew Bogut returned to the Mavericks' front line on Tuesday after missing 11 games. He gives Dallas much needed interior toughness. Dirk Nowitzki also is back joining veterans Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and Deron Williams, who has been playing well.
|
|||||||
12-29-16 | Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3 | Top | 38-8 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
Playing in a bowl game, especially a minor one such as this, is no big deal for Oklahoma State. This will be the 11th straight year the Cowboys have gone bowling under Mike Gundy. This game is a big deal for Colorado, though. The Buffaloes suffered during their first five years in the Pac-12 while coach Mike MacIntyre was laying a foundation. Everything came together for the Buffaloes this season as they went 10-3 and captured the Pac-12 South Division. The Buffaloes were dominated by top-four power Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Colorado senior quarterback Sefo Liufau suffered an ankle injury early in that game and didn't play well. He'll be fine here and the Buffaloes have huge motivation to erase the stigma of that Pac-12 title game loss and capture their first bowl win since 2004. The Buffaloes will be ready for prime time after getting some tough experience with it during the Pac-12 championship game. That loss and national exposure provided needed big-game experience for them. Colorado has covered in 11 of its last 14 games and is 7-2 ATS the past nine times when taking on above .500 opponents. Incentive isn't enough, though, to just go with Colorado. I see the Buffaloes having key matchup edges. The Buffaloes and star running back Phillip Lindsay should pile up yards rushing against the Cowboys, who give up an average of 204.4 yards on the ground per game. Liufau is a good running quarterback, too, and doesn't turn the ball over. Oklahoma State has a balanced offense. Colorado, however, has proven itself against elite running backs holding both Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Utah's Joe Williams to less than 100 yards rushing. The Buffaloes also have the 13th best pass defense giving up just 182.2 yards through the air so Mason Rudolph won't have it easy. Oklahoma State hasn't faced a pass defense this good all season.
|
|||||||
12-29-16 | Heat +6.5 v. Hornets | 82-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Charlotte isn't a team to be laying big points with and the Hornets are in a flat spot coming off an impressive blowout win against Orlando and with a look-ahead game against the Cavaliers up next. The Heat are struggling due to injuries, but point guard Goran Dragic - their second-best player - made it through today's shoot-around and is expected to play after missing Tuesday's game. Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson have flashed and are playing more consistent. They should be in line for strong games with Dragic returning to the lineup. Hassan Whiteside gives the Heat the best big man on the floor. He's having a strong season, but had a bad game on Tuesday drawing criticism. The prideful Whiteside should come up big here. Miami usually is undervalued on the road where it has covered six of the last eight times. That's the case here.
|
|||||||
12-28-16 | Kings v. Blazers +2 | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting Damian Lillard to play. I still like Portland in this spot even though the Trail Blazers have lost six in a row and Sacramento has won four in a row. There are reasons why the Kings are just a road favorite for the fourth time. They lack the maturity and defense to win away from their new state-of-the-art arena. The Kings are 7-11 on the road and do not have a winning spread road mark either. Portland is in revenge and circle-the-wagons mode. The Trail Blazers lost to the Kings, 126-121, eight days ago in Sacramento. Before that, though, the Trail Blazers had defeated the Kings seven consecutive games. The Kings have gotten fat off dreck with three of their last five victories coming against the Mavericks, Timberwolves and 76ers. Those three teams are a combined 26-67. Portland's last two games have been against the Raptors and Spurs. Now the Trail Blazers drop down in class. C.J. McCollum still ensures Portland has plenty of backcourt scoring and swingman Evan Turner is back from injury. The Trail Blazers have lots of fouls to deliver up front to frustrate DeMarcus Cousins.
|
|||||||
12-28-16 | Northwestern +5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
While I respect Pittsburgh's offense its defense isn't good enough to keep Northwestern from pulling the upset. Northwestern has excellent skill position talent - including running back Justin Jackson - that can take full advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that allows 35.6 points a game, ranks 97th in yards allowed and 127th in pass defense. Jackson has nearly 4,000 career rushing yards. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson improved immensely as the season progressed finishing with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last eight games. Pittsburgh has excellent skill position players, too, headed by its star running back, James Connor. However, the Panthers are going up against a much stronger defense as the Wildcats hold opponents to just 22.1 points a game. The Panthers also have to deal with the distraction of their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, announcing he was leaving to become offensive coordinator at LSU. Note, too, that the Panthers have failed to cover in their last six non-conference games. The Panthers also haven't defeated a Power 5 team in the postseason since 2010.
|
|||||||
12-27-16 | Rockets -6.5 v. Mavs | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
It's not a fluke Dallas is 0-3 versus the Rockets this season with the Mavericks' average loss being by 10 points. The Mavericks are the worst team in the NBA at defending the 3-pointer. The Rockets launch the most 3-pointers The teams just met 2 1/2 weeks ago in Houston and the Rockets won 109-87 connecting on 19 of 37 shots from beyond the arc for 51.4 percent. The Rockets are playing well winning 12 of their last 14. Houston has the second-highest offense in the NBA at 113.5. Dallas ranks last in scoring at 94.4 points. Dallas has averaged even less than that, 92.3, in their three losses to the Rockets.
|
|||||||
12-27-16 | Grizzlies +7 v. Celtics | 103-113 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Memphis is the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA both in fewest points allowed per game and field goal percentage. They should not be a mid-sized underdog to the Celtics, who are a slightly above average defensive team and have covered just 33 percent of their home games. The Grizzlies have revenge for an overtime loss to the Celtics last week. Memphis also should be fired-up after playing a terrible game last night in a 112-102 loss to Orlando. The good news about that game for Memphis was none of its players reached the 30-minute mark. So the Grizzlies still should be fresh especially after being idle the two previous days. Mike Conley is back from injury and has shaken the rust off sinking 15 of 25 shots during the past two games. The Celtics have a bigger game on deck when they play the Cavaliers on Thursday.
|
|||||||
12-27-16 | Washington State -10 v. Minnesota | Top | 12-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State. Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach. Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game. Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game. The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten. The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten. |
|||||||
12-26-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers +4 | Top | 106-102 | Push | 0 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
It's strange to see the Nuggets a road favorite against the Clippers. But the Nuggets are rested while the Clippers played last night. Denver is such a strong road favorite, though, because the Clippers are going to be without three starters - Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick. Despite all this I like the Clippers to beat the Nuggets. The Nuggets remain a lottery team. Their defense ranks among the bottom-six in points allowed and shooting percentage. The Nuggets lack consistent scoring weapons. Their strength is rebounding and DeAndre Jordan can negate that. The Clippers are going to be fired-up with their desperate injury situation and off an embarrassing 111-102 loss to the Lakers last night at Staples Center. LA still is respectable in the backcourt with veteran Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers. The Clippers have beaten the Nuggets in six of the last seven meetings, including 119-102 six days ago at home. The Clippers were minus 8 in that game. Now we have a line change of 12 points. It's too much of an adjustment. The Clippers won that game without Griffin and totally dominated Denver's backcourt.
|
|||||||
12-26-16 | Maryland v. Boston College +2 | 30-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a good matchup for Boston College. The Eagles have an excellent run defense. Their problem is going against outstanding athletic dual-threat quarterbacks with great athletes at the skill positions. The Eagles' worst defeats have come against Clemson, Louisville and Florida State. Maryland is a much easier foe for Boston College, an opponent that is right in the Eagles' wheelhouse. The Terrapins are a typical mediocre Big Ten team that likes to run behind a big offensive line. Boston College ranks seventh in the nation in run defense. The Eagles are well acquainted with the kind of spread run game that Maryland employs. Maryland is 1-4 in its last four games with its only victory during this span occurring against 2-10 Rutgers. The Terrapins were outscored by 142 points during their last four losses.
|
|||||||
12-25-16 | Clippers -6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
Death, taxes and the Clippers beating the Lakers. Those are about the only sure things in life. The Clippers have defeated the Lakers 11 consecutive times winning by an average of 22.6 points during the past 10 meetings. The Lakers are listed as the home team, but both teams play their home games at Staples Center so that is negated. The Clippers are furious after losing 90-88 at home to the Mavericks two days ago. They'll be ready here to pound a team they've long hated since LA has always been a Lakers town. The spot is bad for the Lakers returning home after a seven-game, two-week road trip that didn't finish until Friday night. The Lakers are not playing well after an early hot start dropping 12 of their past 13 going 3-10 ATS. They went 1-6 on their road trip. This is a cheap price to back the much superior, motivated Clippers.
|
|||||||
12-25-16 | Broncos +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
These teams just met four weeks ago and the Broncos outgained the Chiefs, 464-273. The Chiefs, though, scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left to force in overtime. The Broncos tried a long field goal in overtime that missed and the Chiefs took advantage of the good field position to kick a game-winning field goal with two seconds left. That was in Denver. But the Chiefs have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Trevor Siemian has thrown for 984 yards and four touchdowns with one interception during his last three games. Alex Smith has thrown a mere 12 touchdowns passes for the season. Siemian is the more dangerous quarterback and Denver has the superior wide receivers. The Broncos still have their Super Bowl caliber defense. The Broncos have surrendered only 10 touchdown passes and lead the AFC with 40 sacks, with Von Miller accounting for 13 1/2 sacks. Denver is No. 1 in pass defense, No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points given up. The Chiefs yield the fifth-most yards per game. Their defense is minus injured star linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have the record they have because they have scored seven touchdowns via their defense or special teams while not giving up any in those areas. While the Chiefs deserve credit for being opportunistic they also are lucky. It's far from a given that the Chiefs will score a non-offensive touchdown. They aren't good enough to cover this margin without that type of occurrence.
|
|||||||
12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -5.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
The Ravens caught the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was just back from his knee injury. Roethlisberger was rusty and Baltimore won, 21-14, in Week 9. Things are much different now. Roethlisberger is healthy and plays much better at Heinz Field where he's thrown 17 touchdown passes with just three interceptions. The Ravens have a strong run defense, but their secondary is vulnerable especially with top cornerback Jimmy Smith not likely to play. If the Ravens drop safeties into coverage then Le'Veon Bell is primed for a big game. If the Ravens key on Bell than Roethlisberger gets turned loose. Antonio Brown should prove highly dangerous here especially if Smith is out as expected. The Ravens lack a consistent ground attack and Joe Flacco is enduring one of his worst seasons. He's been especially brutal on the road with a 5-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers have held six of their last seven opponents to under 250 yards through the air. Their defense has gotten healthy and stepped up. The Steelers not only play much better at home, but they have proven strong in December covering 12 of the last 14 times.
|
|||||||
12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 83 h 24 m | Show | |
The Titans have been a nice story this season. Definite improvement is there. But the oddsmaker has gotten ahead of things by making the Titans this big of a road favorite. Tennessee has a losing spread mark when laying points. The Titans have won three in a row - by a combined 11 points. They are off huge victories against the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos and the Chiefs on the road last week winning on a 53-yard field goal at the gun. The Titans are tied with Houston for the AFC South Division lead. The Titans host the Texans next week. So it's difficult to trust the young Titans, who haven't been in this kind of letdown spot before, to cover more than a field goal on the road in an obvious flat spot. The key here is accessing Jacksonville. The Jaguars average 18.7 points a game, which ranks 27th. However, the Jaguars have the fourth-best pass defense in the league and give up the seventh-fewest yards. Their defense is sneaky good. The Jaguars' talent level is far superior to their 2-12 record. Jacksonville has lost seven times by one touchdown or less. Close losses and bad coaching have killed the Jaguars. Interim coach Doug Marrone can't help but be an improvement on Gus Bradley, who was fired following Sunday's one-point road loss to the Texans. Bradley was the worst coach in the NFL in my view. The Jaguars are 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS the past five times hosting the Titans. Yes, the Titans are the best they've been in at least five years, but they are far from dominant with huge weaknesses in the secondary and wide receiver. Jacksonville should be fired up for their new coach in their final home game of the season playing a division foe that whipped them. 36-22, back in Week 8.
|
|||||||
12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting. This game is being played in the Bahamas where the temperature will be in the high 70's with the humidity being close to 80. Old Dominion is used to this type of weather having played most of its games in heat. Eastern Michigan last played on Nov. 22. The Eagles have been enduring freezing weather being in an extremely cold region. They didn't fly to Nassau until a few days ago leaving snow and seven degree temperatures. Look for the Eagles to run out of gas playing in humidity they are unaccustomed to in what shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Old Dominion played at Eastern Michigan last season and won 38-34. The Monarchs average 36 points, which is six points more than Eastern Michigan scores per game. Old Dominion has a balanced offense. The Monarchs have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games, all victories. Defensively, Old Dominion gives up three fewer points per game than Eastern Michigan and nearly 60 fewer yards than the Eagles. Eastern Michigan relies heavily on its quarterback, Brogan Roback. Look for Old Dominion to key on him. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Lakers v. Heat -4 | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
The Heat are healthier these days and draw the Lakers playing in their fifth road game in nine days. Miami has covered 11 of the last 14 times when hosting an opponent with a losing road record. The Lakers are 1-10 in their last 11 games and really dragging giving up an average of 118 points in their last two games. The Lakers just lost a key bench player, too, with Larry Nance Jr. suffering a knee injury during the Lakers' last game, a 117-113 loss to Charlotte two days ago. The Heat rank eighth defensively holding foes to 101.6 points. That point total was just boosted up following a 136-130 Miami double overtime loss to the Magic this past Tuesday. The Heat certainly were not pleased with that outcome, nor surrendering that many points. The Heat have defeated the Lakers in seven of their last eight meetings. Miami also is 6-2 ATS hosting the Lakers.
|
|||||||
12-22-16 | Warriors v. Nets +14.5 | 117-101 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
The Nets can be feisty at home where they have covered 61 percent of their games and have won straight-up the past two times defeating the Lakers and Nuggets by 10 and 5 points, respectively. Of course Golden State represents a far stiffer test for the Nets. But the Warriors don't have a good track record covering in these type of situations and have much more challenging games on deck. This is Golden State's first road game in more than a week. The Warriors come in fat and happy having just swept a three-game homestand destroying the opposition by an average of 29.3 points per game. Following this matchup, the Warriors play at the Pistons on Friday and then an NBA Finals rematch against the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Christmas Day, which is the most anticipated and biggest game of the season. So the Warriors aren't likely to go all out here, nor play their star players a lot of minutes. This leaves the backdoor wide open for the Nets, who love to hoist 3-pointers and rank eighth in scoring at 106.6 points a game. The Nets' backcourt is stable now with the return from injury of starting point guard Jeremy Lin, who is shooting well hitting 16 of 31 shots from the floor in his last three games. The Warriors are 2-12 ATS the past 14 times playing opponents with a winning percentage below .400. They also have failed to cover eight of the last 12 times when laying double-digits. The Warriors beat the Nets in both meetings last season, winning by an average of 12 points. That's less than the spread here. The Nets are off a 12-point road loss to the Raptors from two nights ago. Brooklyn is 8-0 ATS following a straight-up defeat.
|
|||||||
12-21-16 | BYU -10 v. Wyoming | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
The combination of BYU being strong on both sides of the ball and Wyoming being overrated - the Cowboys actually lost to UNLV - puts me on the Cougars. BYU travels well and will have strong fan support for this bowl game in San Diego. The Cougars are the more mature team with older students, which helps in bowl situations. BYU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games, while Wyoming has failed to cover seven of its last 10 nonleague games. Wyoming is 1-3 in its last four games losing by three points in overtime to UNLV on the road, splitting with San Diego State and losing at New Mexico by 21.
BYU is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cougars beat Michigan State by 17 on the road, won at Cincinnati by 17 and lost by just one point at Boise State. Both teams have outstanding running backs, Brian Hill for Wyoming and Jamaal Williams for BYU. The key here is defense. Wyoming permits 34.8 pints a game and ranks among the bottom 17 in the nation in yards allowed per game. BYU, on the other hand, holds foes to just 19.4 points per game, which was 15th-best in the country. The Cougars rank 33rd overall in total defense and are in the top-10 in run defense. Wyoming is going to have to pass well to stay with the Cougars. Cowboys sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to interceptions getting picked off 13 times. I'm fine with BYU going with Tanner Mangum at quarterback instead of Taysom Hill, who was injured at the end of the regular season. Mangum has filled in well before when Hill has gotten injured. As a freshman last season, Mangum completed 60 percent of his throws for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. |
|||||||
12-21-16 | Kings v. Jazz -7 | Top | 94-93 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
The Jazz have the discipline and defense to blow out the Kings. The timing also is right for this to occur. Sacramento is coming off a thrilling and satisfying comeback home victory against the Trail Blazers last night. DeMarcus Cousins scored 55 points after nearly getting thrown out of the game. That was a tough battle for the Kings. Now they play for the third time in four days and without rest in high altitude. The Kings are playing without injured Rudy Gay, their second-best player, too. While the Kings are now 6-6 at home, they are 5-11 on the road. Their road spread mark is better at 7-9, but still .under 500. Sacramento also has failed to cover the last five times following a victory. Utah usually takes care of business against lesser teams. The well-coached Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times they've played opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Jazz are the top defensive team in the NBA. They surrender nine points fewer per game than Sacramento. Utah should be fired-up after getting embarrassed, 104-74, at Golden State last night. The plus to that blowout was no Utah player had to log big minutes. Prior to that loss, Utah had won seven of eight, including four in a row. The Jazz have won 10 of their last 15 in Salt Lake City.
|
|||||||
12-20-16 | Pacers v. Knicks -5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
New York has covered eight of its last 10 home games. The Knicks are well rested having last played on Saturday. They are expected to get back point guard Derrick Rose, too. He had missed New York's last two games with a back injury. Rose isn't as good as when he entered the league with the Bulls because of injuries. However, he's still highly valuable because of his scoring and leadership. New York is 13-10 with him and 1-3 without him. Rose's presence not only gives New York a third scoring option to go with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis, but adds depth to the backcourt where backup point guard Brandon Jennings can come off the bench. The Pacers are 4-10 SU and ATS on the road. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 visits to Madison Square Garden. Indiana also carries a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in seven days and second in two nights. The Pacers nipped the Wizards, 107-105, at home Monday night on a short jumper by Thaddeus Young with less than a second left. The Pacers' three best players logged big minutes in that victory. Paul George played more than 40 minutes. Jeff Teague played more than 39 minutes and Young logged more than 37 minutes. The Pacers are short-handed, too, with Monta Ellis out. Indiana has failed to cover 20 of the last 28 times when playing without rest.
|
|||||||
12-19-16 | Troy State v. Wyoming -8 | 66-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Troy has covered just two of its last eight road contests. It's Troy's third road game in six days. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS the past 10 times they've been underdogs. Troy nearly stunned USC, though, in its last game losing 82-77 as 22-point 'dogs on Saturday. Wyoming has been home since Nov. 26. The Cowboys have won five straight. This is the final game of a six-game homestand. Wyoming should be back to full strength for this matchup as it was missing three plays during its last game reducing bench strength.
|