01-29-16 |
Magic +8.5 v. Celtics |
|
94-113 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
No knock here on Boston. The Celtics are playing well winning seven of their last nine. But this line is inflated. Yes, the record shows the Magic are 1-7 during their past eight games with just a victory against the lowly Nets during this span. But a closer look shows the Magic having lost their last game to the Bucks, 107-100, this past Tuesday. That score is misleading as the Magic trailed by just one point with 30 seconds left. Only two of Orlando's recent seven defeats have been by a lopsided margin. The Magic fell to the Wizards - a team they never beat - by six points and lost in overtime to the Raptors, Hornets and Grizzlies on the road. The Magic have excellent young talent. Their talent is too good to keep losing. Orlando has a strong recent history against Atlantic Division foes covering eight of the last 10 times against them. Nobody has a higher percentage from 3-point range since Jan. 1 than the Magic's Victor Oladipo. The Magic have been idle the past two days so there should be no excuses. Boston is playing well offensively, but giving up an average of 102.4 points in regulation during its last seven games. It's going to be difficult for the Celtics to cover this big of a margin when allowing that many points per game. Note that the teams turn right around and meet again on Sunday in Orlando. So there shouldn't be any running up a score and showing off. The Celtics would be happy to just come away with a victory.
|
01-28-16 |
VMI v. Mercer -13.5 |
Top |
58-73 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
Mercer is frustrated after two straight road overtime losses. The Bears can take advantage of their angry mood being in a kill spot at home against overmatched VMI, which is 6-12 SU and 2-9 ATS. The Keydets have failed to cover during their last seven road games and nine of their past 10 away matchups. VMI's last four road losses have been by an average of 25.5 points. Mercer leads the Southern Conference in rebounding, has a very strong defense and can take advantage of VMI's weak defense and short lineup. The Bears are yielding an average of only 56 points per game at home holding opponents to 37 percent shooting from the floor. The Bears' average home victory this season has been by more than 17 points.
|
01-27-16 |
Mavs +18 v. Warriors |
|
107-127 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
Zaza Pachulia, Dirk Nowitzki and Devin Harris aren't going to play for Dallas, which is playing without rest. Golden State is awesome. But c'mon this kind of point spread is reserved for dregs like the Suns and 76ers. The Mavericks are a borderline playoff team with prideful veterans and a deep backcourt. They actually beat the Warriors, 114-91, in Dallas back on Dec. 30. The Warriors have to feel good crushing the Spurs, 120-90, in their last game. They can't be as high for this matchup. The Warriors have their own big man injury, too, as center Festus Ezeli is doubtful with a knee injury.
|
01-27-16 |
Thunder v. Wolves +8 |
Top |
126-123 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 21 m |
Show
|
Spot, situation and double revenge motivation factor heavily in this matchup for the Timberwolves. Minnesota is home where it has beaten the Suns and Grizzlies in its last two games, rested after being idle on Tuesday and psyched to beat the Thunder after losing to them twice already this month and nine times in a row. Oklahoma City is playing its fourth away game in six days. The Thunder had to go overtime to get past the Knicks, 128-122, at Madison Square Garden last night. All but one of the Thunder's starters played at least 42 minutes. Center Steven Adams returned from a two-game absence and logged more than 35 minutes. He might not be able to play nearly that many minutes in this short turnaround. The Thunder are without guard Andre Roberson. He was replaced by Dion Waiters, who played a season-high 42:31 minutes. The Thunder's defense is down without Robertson and it will be weakened even more if Adams is limited. The Timberwolves like to compare themselves to the Thunder with their promising second-year players Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine and rookie Karl-Anthony Towns. The hope for the Timberwolves is these players can become stars like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now here Wiggins, LaVine and Towns have a chance to compete against their benchmark right at home. All three are playing well with Towns averaging 21.8 points and 12.5 rebounds in his last four games, Wiggins is scoring at a 23.5 per game clip in his last four contests and LaVine is averaging 17 points during his last four games. Focus, along with fatigue, could be a problem for the Thunder. They return home after being gone for nearly a week following the game and host the Rockets, a far tougher challenge, on Friday.
|
01-26-16 |
Central Michigan -4 v. Miami (OH) |
|
68-51 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
Class difference is bigger than the spread making Central Michigan worthy of an investment. Miami of Ohio has lost 10 in a row and is 0-6 in the Mid-American Conference.
Central Michigan averages nearly 14 points more per game than the Redhawks, who are showing signs of giving up on the season.
|
01-24-16 |
Cardinals v. Panthers -3 |
|
15-49 |
Win
|
100 |
156 h 27 m |
Show
|
Carolina is a rising power that is ready to make the next leap having made the playoffs a third straight season. This is the Panthers' best team as evidenced by 16-1 record and eight players being named to either the first or second team Pro Bowl squad. Cam Newton is the likely MVP accounting for 45 touchdowns and more than 4,400 yards throwing and running. Newton is more trustworthy than Carson Palmer, who also has enjoyed a brilliant campaign but hasn't played well in Arizona's past two games. The Cardinals were buried at home by the Seahawks and were lucky rather than good versus the Packers this past Saturday night winning in overtime. Palmer had not won a playoff game in his 13 seasons until that win against Green Bay. He was fortunate not to have thrown more than two interceptions as Sam Shields dropped several poorly thrown passes by Palmer. Led by cornerback Josh Norman and linebacker Luke Kuechly - perhaps the two best at their respective positions - the Panthers led the NFL with 39 takeaways. The Cardinals' luck at avoiding injury stopped late in the season. They are minus safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. The Cardinals rarely can generate quarterback heat unless they blitz. Newton has the mobility and strength to avoid blitzes. Palmer has the bigger name wide receiving targets. Larry Fitzgerald has enjoyed a monster comeback season regaining his status as an elite receiver. Carolina, though, has the far superior tight end in Greg Olsen and the more experienced, proven running back in now healthy Jonathan Stewart, who easily outplayed Marshawn Lynch last week in returning from a foot injury. The Panthers have won 12 consecutive home games, including defeating the Cardinals in the playoffs last season, 27-16. Arizona was down to third-string Ryan Lindley in that matchup. The Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season. Only one of those victories, however, was against an opponent that made the playoffs. Palmer isn't playing well and the Cardinals' ground attack has produced an average of just 2.1 yards per carry during their last two games. The Cardinals can be overwhelmed at the point of attack especially when their ground attack isn't clicking. Arizona also has a weak kicking game. Drew Butler is among the worst punters in the NFL and Chandler Catanzaro missed five extra points during the season.
|
01-24-16 |
Patriots -3 v. Broncos |
Top |
18-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
153 h 10 m |
Show
|
Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests. The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury. Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace.
|
01-23-16 |
Utah State v. San Diego State -7 |
Top |
55-70 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
San Diego State has won and covered the past five in this series. Look for that string to continue. The Aztecs have won by an average of 17.5 points the past two times hosting Utah State - and that was when the Aggies had Stew Morrill coaching them. Not only are the Aztecs - who are undefeated in the Mountain West - taller, but they have the better athletes, too. They are leading the Mountain West Conference in rebounding and also are No. 1 defensively. San Diego State beat Utah State, 70-67, in Logan earlier this season and that was with the Aggies getting some homecooking. Utah State made 24 of 29 free throws in that game compared to the Aztecs making 10 of 20.
Utah State was hurt by big man David Collette transferring to Utah. The Aggies' rebounding hasn't been the same. There also is a fatigue factor working against the Aggies this being their eighth game in 22 days.
|
01-22-16 |
St. Peter's +8 v. Iona |
|
58-64 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
Power ratings-wise this game should prove very close. St. Peters is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven Metro Atlantic Athletic games and have covered in 4 of their last 5 road matchups. The Gaels, meanwhile, have failed to cover in their last six home games. They also have not covered during their last 5 conference games.
|
01-21-16 |
Gonzaga +3 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
67-70 |
Push |
0 |
20 h 26 m |
Show
|
Picked to finish fourth in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary's has been one of the surprise teams going 15-2 despite losing its five senior starters and 80 percent of its scoring and rebounding from last season's 21-10 team. The Gaels are No. 2 in the nation in scoring margin winning by an average of 20.5 points a game while ranking third in fewest points allowed per game at 58. Impressive, yes. But a soft home schedule has contributed to Saint Mary's dominance. I believe it's a mistake to make the Gaels a favorite against Gonzaga even though they are 13-0 at home. We've been down this road before with these two teams. Gonzaga was an underdog in 2013 and 2014 to Saint Mary's. The Zags won those games by 28 and 17 points, respectively. Simply put, Saint Mary's doesn't beat Gonzaga. The Zags have been the class of this conference since the late 1990s and still are the class of this conference. They have defeated the Gaels eight consecutive times, covering the past seven times. Gonzaga is very strong again at 14-4 with its four losses coming by a combined 12 points. The Zags lead the WCC in scoring and rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense. They have two of the top six scorers in the conference with Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, who also leads the WCC in rebounding. The Zags have won the past three meetings at McKeon Pavilion. Their 13-game road win streak is the longest in the NCAA. Saint Mary's is going to feel the pressure of being the favorite. The Gaels have been involved in two games decided by single-digits and lost both - blowing a late lead to California in a 63-59 road loss and falling to Pepperdine, 67-64, two games ago as an 8 1/2-point road favorite. The Gaels blew a 17-point lead at home to Gonzaga when the teams last played on Feb. 21 of 215. The Zags won that game, 70-60. Bottom line: Saint Mary's isn't ready to beat Gonzaga. Getting points is a bonus.
|
01-20-16 |
Pistons v. Rockets -2.5 |
|
123-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 6 m |
Show
|
Detroit is one of those good at home, bad on the road clubs. Detroit is 14-7 at home, but 8-12 SU and ATS away. The Pistons have had particular problems at Houston losing nine in a row there going 2-6-1 ATS, including 1-5 ATS in their last six visits. The Pistons have failed to cover seven of the last nine times versus opponents with a winning home record and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. Sparked by a revitalized Dwight Howard, the Rockets are playing well winning six of their last eight. Howard is averaging 20.6 points and 14.7 rebounds during the past three weeks posting 10 double-doubles in a row. He will be highly motivated to face Andre Drummond, who has resembled Howard in his prime while enjoying a breakout superstar season. Detroit received a lot of accolades for beating the Warriors at home this past Saturday, but that was its only victory during the past four games.
|
01-20-16 |
Heat v. Wizards -4 |
Top |
87-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
Washington has revenge for an embarrassing 97-75 home loss suffered to the Heat early this month. Look for the Wizards to get their revenge in a big way as this is a horrendous spot for the banged-up Heat. Miami is enduring its worst stretch going 1-5, including losing 91-79 to the Bucks at home last night. The Heat had just returned from a six-game road trip that had concluded Sunday night in a blowout loss to the Thunder. Now the Heat go right back on the road. The Heat have been outscored by 37 points in their last two games. While the Wizards are healthy with Bradley Beal back, the Heat are down several big men and have a cluster injury problem at point guard with starter Goran Dragic and backup Beno Udrih out. This leaves the Heat inexperienced in the backcourt. Dwayne Wade is trying to take over some of the ball handling, but he's bothered by a sore shoulder. John Wall against Tyler Johnson is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. The Wizards have been playing better winning four of their last six. However, they are off a double-digit home loss to Portland this past Monday. So the Wizards should be rested and ready.
|
01-19-16 |
Alabama -2.5 v. Auburn |
|
77-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 40 m |
Show
|
The combination of a due factor for Alabama, an Auburn letdown following its upset home victory against Kentucky and a banged-up Kareem Canty make the Crimson Tide worthy of an investment. Auburn ended an 18-game losing streak while beating a ranked team for the first time in four years when it downed the Wildcats, 75-70, this past Saturday. The Tigers came from down 47-35 to pull off the victory against the 14th-ranked Wildcats. Alabama is tough defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. Canty, who ranks in the SEC in assists and fourth in scoring at 19 points a game, was wearing a walk boot after turning his ankle on the game-typing basketball against Kentucky.
|
01-18-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs -3 |
Top |
132-98 |
Loss |
-107 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland are without question the elite of the NBA right now. The timing of this matchup, though, is well suited for the Cavaliers. The Warriors are 37-4, but playing their worst ball dropping two of their last three. The latest defeat being an eye-popping 113-95 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Pistons are an outstanding home team and were sky-high for the matchup. But Golden State has no excuses being healthy. The Warriors shot a season-low from the floor and had their fewest assists, just 18, of the season. While I certainly wouldn't expect the Warriors to be that bad again - perhaps not all season - this is another tough spot for them. The revenge-minded Cavaliers are 15-1 at home, riding a six-game winning streak at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is well rested having completed a 5-1 road trip with an impressive 91-77 victory against Houston on Friday. That followed a tough 99-95 loss to the Spurs that halted the Cavaliers' eight game win streak. The prideful Cavaliers don't want to lose to the Spurs and Warriors in the same week. They also have payback for an 89-83 Christmas Day loss to the Warriors and for losing to Golden State in the Championship Series while missing Kevin Love and losing Kyrie Irving for the series when he suffered a broken left kneecap in Game 1. Irving was just returning from his injury when the Cavaliers lost to Golden State on Christmas. Now he's healthy as are the rest of the Cavaliers. Irving led the Cavaliers against the Rockets with 23 points. LeBron James usually can be counted on in revenge spots. James is on a hot run, too, averaging 25.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists while hitting 54.8 percent of his shots from the field during the last six games.
|
01-16-16 |
Air Force +16 v. UNLV |
|
64-100 |
Loss |
-115 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
The Rebels played one of their finest games when they beat New Mexico at home by 12 points this past Tuesday. That was their first game under interim coach Todd Simon. I don't see the Rebels so fired up in their second game without disposed head coach Dave Rice. The Rebels hit 27 of 33 (82 percent) free throws versus the Lobos while committing only seven turnovers. The Rebels shoot 66.7 percent from the foul line and were averaging 19 turnovers during Mountain West Conference action before Tuesday. There is going to be a natural letdown tendency for the Rebels, who have lacked backbone all season and still haven't received consistet point guard play. Air Force has the same 10-7 record as UNLV. The Falcons aren't nearly as talented, but they are disciplined, play solid perimeter defense and have a winning road spread mark. The Falcons also have covered in seven of their last 10 visits to UNLV.
|
01-15-16 |
Heat -2.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
98-95 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets, coming off a home victory against Golden State two nights ago. It was only the Warriors' third loss of the season. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS following a cover and 2-7-2 ATS when playing on one day rest. Denver is better this season with Michael Malone as its coach and Danilo Gallinari healthy. But the Nuggets are far from a good team at 15-24. Denver is 3-1 in its last four games, but they've been fortunate to draw foes that haven't played up to their capability against them. The Nuggets have shot just 39.2 percent from the floor during this span and failed to break 95 points in three of the matchups. Miami ranks No. 2 defensively holding foes to 95.5 points a game. The Heat are highly motivated having lost three in a row. This is the fifth of six straight road contests for the Heat, who conclude their road trip with a probable loss on Sunday against Oklahoma City. The Heat's losses during their losing streak have come to the Jazz, when they were playing without rest, to the Warriors, who have yet to lose at home, and to the Clippers, who have won 10 in a row. Now the Heat drop way down in class. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a non-cover. The Heat also are 16-5 ATS during their past 21 road games against foes with a losing home mark. The Heat are off a bad game. Proud veterans Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh aren't going to let that happen again especially versus a much weaker opponent. The Heat will be without starting point guard Goran Dragic, but they have depth in the backcourt and Denver is weak at point guard with over-the-hill Jameer Nelson and erratic rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who is one of the worst shooters and most turnover-prone players in the league.
|
01-15-16 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Bucks |
|
101-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 21 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have regressed a great deal from last season. They are 16-25 and headed back to the lottery. Milwaukee's defense has slipped, veteran leadership is missing and lack of rebounding has hurt. Not helping matters is Jason Kidd being away from the team on medical leave. The Hawks have regressed, too, from last season, but not nearly as much as the Bucks. The Bucks lack the consistent offense and rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's weaknesses. The Hawks have beaten the Bucks in 13 of the last 15 meetings, including the past six at Bradley Center. The Hawks should be fired up after suffering their second-worst defeat to the season, 107-84, two nights ago at Charlotte. The Bucks couldn't follow through on their 106-101 win against the Bulls this past Tuesday losing by that same score to the banged-up Wizards on Wednesday night.
|
01-14-16 |
Cavs +7 v. Spurs |
Top |
95-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
No pearls of wisdom for this choice. The oddsmaker opened San Antonio minus 5 1/2 and the marketplace has driven the number up to seven. That's a buy number for me. It's just too much value to overlook Cleveland.
Yes, San Antonio is great. But the Cavaliers are not exactly chopped liver and they are playing their finest basketball, too. Cleveland has won eight in a row and Kyrie Irving is getting better each game as he rounds into shape.
|
01-13-16 |
Pacers +2.5 v. Celtics |
|
94-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 60 m |
Show
|
The Celtics aren't playing well enough to lay points against Indiana. Boston is 1-6 in its last seven games and has lost a season-high four games in a row. The Celtics have dropped their last three home games - to the Pistons, Nets and Lakers. All of these defeats were by three or more points. The Celtics don't have a lot of height so they need their outside shooting game working. However, the Celtics are shooting just 25.5 percent from 3-point range during their last seven games. Indiana ranks sixth in fewest points allowed at 98.2 and are sixth in defensive 3-point percentage. The Pacers are holding foes to 93.5 points on 39.2 percent field goal shooting during their last six games. Indiana would be leading the NBA in defense if its statistics accumulated this month were counted for the entire season. The Pacers are 4-2 in their last six games. Their past five defeats have all come by four points or fewer. Indiana is 2-0 versus Boston this season, including winning by 11 points during their last visit to Boston on Nov. 11. The Pacers are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus the Celtics and have covered 74 percent of their last 27 Eastern Conference matchups.
|
01-13-16 |
Wolves +8.5 v. Rockets |
|
104-107 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
The Rockets have been playing much better than earlier this season when they ranked as one of the league's biggest disappointments. However, this is a flat sport for Houston. The Rockets are playing for the third time in four days and just won an important road game, 107-91, at Memphis last night. The Rockets have a much more challenging game up next - hosting the Cavaliers on Friday. The Rockets get back point guard Ty Lawson today following his three-game suspension. That's not necessarily a plus for the Rockets, though, as Lawson has not fit in especially alongside James Harden. Minnesota has dropped 11 of its last 12. This is far more a fade on Houston, but the Timberwolves do have talent and showed they are playing hard cutting an 18-point third-quarter deficit against Oklahoma City to lose by five points last night at home. Houston is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an opponent with a below .400 winning percentage and has failed to cover four of five times this season laying nine or more points. Minnesota, on the other hand, has covered eight of the last nine times it has been on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record.
|
01-12-16 |
New Mexico +6 v. UNLV |
Top |
74-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
A disappointing 0-3 start in Mountain West Conference action has caused a lot of upheaval at UNLV. The school fired head coach David Rice two days ago. This will be he Rebels' first game under interim coach Todd Simon, who is not expected to get the permanent job. I like New Mexico in this unique spot mainly for two reasons - the Lobos are playing extremely well and the Rebels' uneasy mental state. The Lobos always have scoring capability, averaging two points more per game than UNLV at 77.4, but now their defense has come around in major fashion. The Lobos have a poor power rating because of a terrible non-conference record. New Mexico, however, now is playing its best ball of the season going 3-0 in its first three Mountain West Conference matchups. The Lobos are tied for the conference lead in part because they not only lead the league in steals and 3-point defense by a wide margin, but also have been called for the fewest fouls. UNLV doesn't take a backseat to any team in the conference in terms of talent, but the Rebels are a mental mess. UNLV is 1-5 in its last six games and morale - both with the players and coaches - is up in the air with the choice of Simon as interim head coach. The Rebels were favored between 4 1/2 and 8 points in each of their first three Mountain West games. They lost all three straight-up. The Rebels have yet to find themselves on offense hindered by the lack of a true point guard. They have committed 24 more turnovers than assists in league play. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS the past 10 times they've played a foe with a winning record and have covered in four of their past five visits to UNLV.
|
01-11-16 |
Alabama v. Clemson +7 |
Top |
45-40 |
Win
|
100 |
136 h 0 m |
Show
|
Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. Alabama is not the dominant monster team that is perceived by many. That perception was fueled by the Crimson Tide destroying Michigan State last week. Credit to Alabama for playing great in that matchup. But Clemson is nothing like the Spartans. Clemson's strengths directly play against Alabama, unlike Michigan State. Alabama played its Game of the Year against Michigan State, fueled by Big Ten revenge after a 42-35 bowl loss to Ohio State last season and having three weeks to prepare for the Spartans. Michigan State doesn't have the offensive talent, nor plays the style of offense, Clemson does. The Spartans, in hindsight, were sitting ducks for Alabama. Michigan State's Connor Cook is a dropback quarterback operating a pro-style offense. The Crimson Tide is much more geared to stop this type of offense rather than Clemson's option. The Tigers' Deshaun Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. Unlike Michigan State, Clemson has playmakers at the flanks and it spreads the field. The Crimson Tide are going to encounter problems handling Watson and this type of offense, especially with just one week to prepare. This is especially pertinent in light of Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart shuttling responsibilities after being named Georgia's head coach last month. Clemson pushes pace with its up-tempo attack. This keeps Alabama from making its normal substitution patterns thereby reducing its team depth. Look at who Alabama has lost to during the last three years - at home to Mississippi this season- then last season at Mississippi and to Ohio State in the bowl semifinals - also 45-31 to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl in 2013. Clemson rolled past the Sooners, 37-17, this past week. Go back to 2012 and you'll find the Crimson Tide losing at home to Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel. The common denominator is these are spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks none of whom is better than Watson, who is light years ahead of Alabama quarterback Jake Coker.
Clemson has covered in its last four bowl games. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games, while Alabama is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.
|
01-09-16 |
Wizards +2 v. Magic |
|
105-99 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 38 m |
Show
|
Orlando is much improved while Washington has been disappointing up to this point. But what hasn't changed in the Wizards' huge point guard edge with John Wall and the dominance Washington has had in this series. The Wizards have defeated the Magic 11 times in a row. That includes three victories this season with the last coming 11 days ago at Verizon Center, 103-91. Wall scored 24 points and dished off 13 assists in that victory. Wall is averaging 19.1 points and 10.5 assists against the Magic. The Magic are playing without rest after beating Brooklyn, 83-77, on the road last night and aren't likely to have their point guard, Elfird Payton. He's missed the last three games with an ankle bruise. The Magic were lucky to play such a weak opponent last night as they are scoring only 85.6 points per game during their last five games while shooting 42.1 percent from the floor during this span. Washington also is playing for the second consecutive night after losing to Toronto. The Wizards have gotten healthy with the exception of being without injured shooting guard Bradley Beal, who is nearing a return. It would be an unexpected bonus if he were to play today. This is the Wizards' first road game of 2016. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road matchups, including straight-up victories against the Cavaliers, Heat and Mavericks.
|
01-09-16 |
Chiefs -3 v. Texans |
Top |
30-0 |
Win
|
100 |
125 h 44 m |
Show
|
Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team. The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season. The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday. The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate) Over 5 1/2 Sacks Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season.
|
01-08-16 |
Mavs +1.5 v. Bucks |
|
95-96 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 18 m |
Show
|
Maybe it's because coach Jason Kidd is out recovering from hip surgery. But the Bucks have been playing zero defense lately under interim coach Joe Prunty allowing 114.4 points per game during their last five games. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Milwaukee surrendered 123 points and 54.4 percent shooting to San Antonio in losing by 25 points this past Monday. Then the following night, the Bucks lost 117-106 on the road to Chicago. Now the Bucks take on a rested and confident Mavericks team that has won the past six times in this series. The last time the Bucks defeated the Mavericks in Milwaukee was on New Year's Day, 2011. Milwaukee also is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on two days rest. The Mavericks are facing a crucial part of their schedule. They got past improved Sacramento, 117-116, in double overtime at home on Tuesday. The following night Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle took a chance giving the night off to four starters - Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Zaza Pachulia and Wesley Matthews - in a road game against New Orleans. The Mavericks displayed their excellent depth by defeating the Pelicans, 100-91. Dallas can't afford a loss here in its quest to reach the playoffs in the always fierce Western Conference. After this matchup, four of Dallas' next five games are against Cleveland and then on the road versus Oklahoma City, Chicago and San Antonio.
|
01-08-16 |
Valparaiso v. Oakland +2.5 |
Top |
84-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2. Valparaiso plays great defense. Oakland has the sixth-best offense in the country averaging 86.9 points a game. It's clearly a case of contrasting styles. So which way to turn? Examining the matchup the clear answer is Oakland. First let's look at history. The Grizzlies are home. That's huge. The home team has won the past five times in the series. Oakland also is 5-1 against the Crusader at home with the lone defeat during this time frame occurring back in 2010. The Grizzlies have covered 75 percent of their last 17 home contests going 12-4-1 ATS. Sticking with history, the Grizzlies also have covered in their last six games versus Valparaiso. Yet, the Crusaders opened as road chalk. Valparaiso has been a road favorite in its last three lined away matchups. They have failed to cover each time losing straight-up to Belmont and Ball State while not covering versus Indiana State. The Crusaders have won 20 in a row at home. They are not nearly so dominant on the road just 3-3 straight-up versus board opponents. Oakland is going to be especially motivated following a shocking 100-98 home loss to Youngstown State in its last game this past Monday. The Grizzlies were 17-point favorites in that game. They lost on a tip-in at the buzzer perhaps caught looking ahead to this matchup. That defeat may have factored in the linesmaker opening Valparaiso a road favorite. Oakland, though, has too much offense at home for the Crusaders led by the best player in the Horizon League, Kahil Fielder. The junior guard ranks third in the nation in scoring at 26.1 points and is No. 1 in assists at 9.2. The Grizzlies have six players that average 9.5 points or more. Valparaiso, by comparison, only has two players who average more than 11 points a game. The Grizzlies have covered 11 of their past 16 Horizon League games and are battled tested having had non-conference games versus Colorado State, Georgia, Toledo, Washington, Michigan State and Virginia. None of these games were at home yet the Grizzlies upset Washington and Toledo while taking Michigan State to overtime. Oakland covered all of these games, including playing Colorado State, Georgia and Virginia tough. Now the Grizzlies get their biggest home game of the season off a shocking upset loss. I'll take them in this spot. Getting points is a nice bonus.
|
01-07-16 |
Wisc-Milwaukee -5.5 v. Youngstown State |
|
81-65 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 15 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin-Milwaukee clearly is the superior team and catching Youngstown State in a letdown spot. The Panthers could be 13-2, but lost three games in overtime. So their record is 10-5. One of those victories is against Wisconsin. The Panthers have been money-makers on the road covering 10 of their last 12 away contests. The Penguins upset Oakland, 100-98, as 17-point road 'dogs this past Monday on a dramatic tip-in at the buzzer. The Penguins achieved this remarkable upset minus big man Bobby Hain, their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a foot injury and won't play today. The Penguins sank 16 3-pointers in knocking off Oakland. That's the second most in school history. It's hard to believe the Penguins can be that hot again. The Panthers have covered the past four times in the series.
|
01-07-16 |
Michigan v. Purdue -7.5 |
Top |
70-87 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
I'm fine with Purdue even if Michigan's senior star guard Caris LaVert is going to play. He's the Wolverines' best player leading them in scoring, rebounding and assists. He injured his left leg two games ago and missed Michigan's last game this past Saturday. The Wolverines were able to overcome his absence by blowing out Penn State at home. The Wolverines are going to find things much tougher here as not only is this a difficult game from a matchup perspective but also from a situation spot, too. Before getting into that analysis, the current status of LaVert is that he's going to test his leg in warmups and then a decision will be made. Even if LaVert plays, you have to wonder if he'll be close to 100 percent. He couldn't finish last season because of surgery on his left foot. Purdue is going to be super fired-up after having its 15-game home win streak ended this past Saturday by 23rd-ranked Iowa, 70-63. That was only the Boilermakers' second loss of the season. After falling to Butler, Purdue came back to beat Vanderbilt, 68-55, as six-point home favorites in its following game. The Boilermakers have covered 68 percent of their last 22 home games going 15-7. They are 5-0-1 against the spread during their last six meetings versus Michigan. The Wolverines are a perimeter team. They rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-pointers made and are seven in 3-point percentage. LaVert is hitting 44.6 percent of his 3-point shots. If the Wolverines aren't hitting from the outside they're in trouble because they are a weak offensive rebounding team and have a size disadvantage against Purdue. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Only five teams surrender fewer points per game than the Boilermakers' 59.1 average. Purdue has held its last 13 foes below their season average. Michigan isn't likely to earn any cheap baskets in this hostile environment. Purdue has 7-foot-2 Isaac Haas at center. His backup is 7-footer A.J. Hammons. They've combined to average 4.1 of Purdue's 5.8 blocked shots per game. It's not just these 7-footers. Purdue forward Caleb Swanigan leads the Big Ten in rebounding and senior guard 6-6 Rapheal Davis is a lockdown defender. The Boilersmakers also have 6-7 Vince Edwards and 6-6 Kendall Stephens giving them players with a tremendous wing span. It's a key reason why Purdue ranks 11th in 3-point defense. Purdue also is the better free throw shooting team knocking down 74.2 percent, 33rd best in the country. Michigan ranks 110th making 71.5 percent from the foul line. The Wolverines' three defeats have come against teams that had interior size where they couldn't compete on the boards, especially on the offensive glass where they rank 327th in the nation. They've suffered blowout losses to Xavier, Connecticut and SMU. All of those losses were by 14 points or more.
|
01-06-16 |
Duke v. Wake Forest +8 |
Top |
91-75 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep.
This could be Wake Forest's best team in the last six years. They Deacons beat LSU on the road - impressive even more now that the Tigers own victories against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Wake Forest also owns wins against Rutgers, UCLA, Arkansas and Indiana.
Wake Forest usually is at its best against good competition covering 16 of the last 22 times versus foes with a winning record.
|
01-05-16 |
Kings v. Mavs -5 |
Top |
116-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
Rarely do the defensively-challenge Kings find themselves in a letdown spot. This is one of those rare occurrences. The Kings, who rank last in defense surrendering nearly 108 points a game, upset Oklahoma City on the road, 116-104, last night. That ended a 14-game Kings lost streak against the Thunder on the road. Now the Kings have to turn around and come to Dallas and face the Mavericks, who should be playing with tremendous urgency. The up-and-down Mavericks have lost two in a row. Dallas goes on the road for nine of its next 13 games following this matchup, including six of their next seven. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home contests and 11-5 ATS following a loss. Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS following a victory. The Mavericks have owned the Kings in Dallas beating them the past 21 times at home! The Mavericks are 21-3 in their last 24 overall games versus Sacramento. The Kings, however defeated the Mavericks, 112-98, at Sacramento on Nov. 30. Rajon Rondo was highly motivated in that matchup against his former team. It was no secret Rondo and Dallas coach Rick Carlisle clashed when Rondo was with the Mavericks last season. Now it's the Mavericks' turn to get revenge on the Kings and in particular Rondo, who wasn't the most popular person when he was with Dallas. Deron Williams still might be out because of a hamstring injury that he re-injured on Saturday. But I actually like J.J. Barea better as the Mavericks' starting point guard and second-string point guard Devin Harris is expected to return today after being sidelined with a sore back.
|
01-04-16 |
Celtics -6.5 v. Nets |
Top |
103-94 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a circle-the-wagons game for Boston following consecutive home losses to the Lakers and Nets. The Celtics are in short revenge here as Brooklyn beat them, 100-97, on Saturday. The Celtics also are motivated because they own the Nets' first-round pick this year. The Nets are thin in the backcourt after losing point guard Jarrett Jack for the season with a knee injury during their Saturday win against Boston. The Nets were weak at the point to start with and now have serious problems. The Nets need to feed Brook Lopez inside. That's a big part of their offense. That's not going to be so easy without an established point guard. The Celtics have been big earners on the road going 20-8 (71 percent) ATS during their past 28 away matchups.
|
01-03-16 |
Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs |
Top |
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 44 m |
Show
|
The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders. Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season. The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset.
|
01-01-16 |
Colorado +8 v. California |
Top |
65-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 24 m |
Show
|
Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener. The Pac-12 is strong this season - and balanced. There is a lot of parity. So I see this as too many points Cal is giving up. Colorado is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting. The Buffaloes also are getting a huge season from big man Josh Scott, who is healthy this season unlike last year. This makes the Buffaloes competitive in any road setting. Because of their outside shooting, the Buffaloes are averaging 83.1 points a game. Scott has helped them rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rebounding margin. Scott is averaging 18.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Colorado has a strong inside-outside game as each of its starting guards are averaging double figures. The Buffaloes have covered nine of their last 11 against Cal. The Golden Bears have covered just 32 percent of their last 34 Pac-12 matchups.
|
01-01-16 |
Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern |
Top |
45-6 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 6 m |
Show
|
Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee. Northwestern won some close games versus mediocre Big Ten opponents such as defeating Penn State by two, Purdue by seven and Illinois by 10 during its past four games. But the Wildcats were smashed 38-0 by Michigan and 40-10 by Iowa. The Wildcats were fortunate enough to not have to play against Ohio State and Michigan State. The Wildcats have strong defensive statistics, but I wasn't impressed with the offenses they faced to built those numbers. Tennessee came on strong to win its last five games. The Volunteers nearly beat Oklahoma and Alabama leading both in the fourth quarter falling to the Sooners in overtime. Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs improved from his sophomore season completing nearly 60 percent of his throws for more than 2,100 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also rushed for 623 yards and another nine touchdowns. Dobbs threw multiple touchdown passes to seven different receivers. Northwestern lacks Tennessee's explosiveness - and that includes special teams. The Volunteers had six return touchdowns, three each on punts and kickoffs. Evan Berry led the nation in kickoff returns with 38.3 yards per return and three kickoff return touchdowns.
|
12-31-15 |
Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 |
Top |
17-37 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even.
Yes, three players are suspended for Clemson. The only one, though, with some impact is Deon Cain, the Tigers' second leading receiver. He's a talented deep threat, but the Tigers have other weapons. Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. He has a superb running back in Wayne Gallman and talented receivers. The Tigers averaged nearly 40 points on the season - and they did it facing tougher defenses than Oklahoma did squaring off against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina State and Notre Dame. I like Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, too, but statistics are skewed from the Big 12 because it's such an offensive-oriented conference with several weak teams. Clemson has a very strong defense headed by lineman Shaq Lawson, who led the nation with 22 1/2 tackles for losses.
|
12-30-15 |
Wisconsin v. USC -3 |
Top |
23-21 |
Loss |
-120 |
326 h 27 m |
Show
|
USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. Big Ten teams aren't equipped to handle Pac-12 passing offenses and upper tier quarterbacks. USC has such a quarterback in Cody Kessler. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season. If you combine this season with last year, Kessler has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 67-to-11. Wisconsin's strength is its defense. But the Badgers don't have enough secondary depth to stop Kessler and a deep USC receiver group that had 10 players haul in double-digit receptions headed by dynamic sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster. He caught 85 passes for 1,389 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Badgers can't match that because they have a below average quarterback, Joel Stave. He's been picked off six times in his last four games. Mediocre quarterbacking, with the exception of one year or Russell Wilson, is the norm at Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been able to overcome that because of an outstanding ground attack. That hasn't happened this season, though. The Badgers never adequately replaced Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin finished 97th in rushing yards. Wisconsin failed to beat a winning team this season. That's telling. USC had no bad losses except to Washington. The Trojans aren't as good as Stanford, Notre Dame and Oregon - all teams they lost to. But the Trojans are better than the Badgers with huge skill position edges at quarterback with Kessler, wide receiver with Smith-Schuster, all around player in Adoree Jackson and even running back with Ronald Jones II. USC has never lost to Wisconsin in six previous meetings. The Trojans have covered in nine of their last 12 games versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has played in neutral site games.
|
12-28-15 |
Central Michigan +4.5 v. Minnesota |
Top |
14-21 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush. Rush threw for multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 games. He has five players with 33 or more catches. Minnesota has an excellent secondary, but I like Rush especially on the fast track of indoor Ford Field. Central Michigan should have a better following with this game being played in Detroit. Minnesota played two MAC schools and won by three points each time, beating Ohio and Kent State. Both Minnesota and Central Michigan played Kent State. Central Michigan beat Kent State, 27-14, while the Gophers nipped the Golden Flashes, 10-7. The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Big Ten and 5-0 versus non-conference foes. After Jerry Kill was forced to step down to health issues, the Gophers went 1-4. They finished with only five wins, but earned a bowl bid based on their NCAA Academic Progress Report since not enough teams reached six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. So technically the Gophers don't even deserve to be here. I don't buy them as favorites against the caliber of quarterback they are facing and an opponent as feisty as they are.
|
12-27-15 |
Packers v. Cardinals -4 |
Top |
8-38 |
Win
|
100 |
145 h 9 m |
Show
|
Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012. Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out.
|
12-27-15 |
Steelers -10 v. Ravens |
|
17-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
71 h 35 m |
Show
|
Surprised to see Pittsburgh a double-digit favorite at Baltimore? Don't be. Oh, the Ravens will play hard. John Harbaugh will see to that. But the Ravens simply don't have nearly enough healthy talent to compete against elite level competition. And the Steelers have become an elite team. They've won five of their last six scoring at least 30 points in every one of those games. The Ravens are down 18 players for the season, including eight starters. Their defense is a shell of what it once was and they have no playmakers left on offense. It's why the Ravens are 2-5 at home, their worst home record in their 26-year history in Baltimore, and why they are on pace to have the fewest takeaways in team history with just 11 right now. Neither Jimmy Clausen nor Ryan Mallet nor Matt Schaub has the skill set and weapons to keep pace with Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton have combined to haul in 19 touchdown passes. DeAngelo Williams is going to be a 1,000-yard rusher replacing Le'Veon Bell. The battered Ravens might even be without cornerback Jimmy Smith, too.
|
12-27-15 |
Browns +11.5 v. Chiefs |
|
13-17 |
Win
|
100 |
71 h 33 m |
Show
|
On paper it seems hard to go against the Chiefs. They've won eight in a row outscoring their foes by an average of 17 1/2 points during their win streak. But my handicap to the Browns is a combination of the Chiefs' talent being overrated - they are more opportunistic than great in my view - and the Browns playing hard to try to save Mike Pettine's job. Credit to Andy Reid and the Chiefs for coming back from the dead after a 1-5 start. But take notice of who the Chiefs have recently played: The Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Chargers again and Ravens. The Chiefs are using backups at running back - a key position for them - and have a lackluster passing attack. They are winning by forcing turnovers - getting at least one during their past 10 games. Sure Cleveland could turn the ball over with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. But he's also capable of making big plays. The Browns, unlike other bottom feeders, have some talent in left tackle Joe Thomas, tight end Gary Barnidge, strong safety Donte Whitner and wide receiver/returner Travis Benjamin. Those players, along with Manizel, all happen to publicly come out and call for Pettine to keep his job. That's a nice loyalty gesture. You would think now they would back up their word by playing hard. The Chiefs' pass rush could be down if Tamba Hali can't play due to a broken thumb. Already out is Justin Houston. Those are the Chiefs' two best edge rushers.
|
12-26-15 |
Tulsa +14 v. Virginia Tech |
Top |
52-55 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. Tulsa was one of the most improved teams in the country under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane are very dangerous offensively under the innovative Montgomery and they've been coming on as the players became more comfortable in his system scoring at least 38 points in all but one of their last six games. On the season, the Golden Hurricane average 35.9 points per game. Only 13 teams averaged more yards per game than the Golden Hurricane's 502 yards. They also ranked 11th in passing behind quarterback Dane Evans, who has a top target in Keyarris Garrett. Garrett had the second most receiving yards in the FBS with 1,451. I detect that Virginia Tech could be a little tight for this matchup trying to give Beamer a sendoff, while Tulsa will be loose without any pressure enjoying their first bowl game in three years. The Hokies also will be without three suspended seniors - starting linebacker Deon Clarke and two reserve receivers.
|
12-25-15 |
Clippers -11.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
94-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are a frustrated, bully type team. They've had problem beating elite teams while smashing bad clubs such as the Lakers. The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak having lost to the Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, 100-99, this past Monday. They haven't played since. I see the Clippers releasing their pent-up frustrations on the hapless Lakers. The Clippers seem to get a sadistic glee in pounding their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers seven straight times winning by an average of nearly 25 points a game. In five of the last seven matchups, the Clippers have won by 23 or more points. The Lakers have nowhere near the talent to compete against the Clippers facing Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers also have a far more talented bench. Note, too, there is no home-court advantage for the Lakers as both teams play at Staples Center.
|
12-24-15 |
Cincinnati v. San Diego State -3 |
Top |
7-42 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 45 m |
Show
|
Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns. Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog. San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter. Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too. The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards. The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense. San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons. Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure. Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call.
|
12-23-15 |
Pistons v. Hawks -5 |
|
100-107 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
Atlanta is playing well averaging 111.3 points in winning its last four games while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor during this span. The Hawks catch a scheduling break as the Pistons are facing major fatigue issues coming from 18 points down to upset Miami, 93-92, on the road last night. The Pistons have a thin bench. That's one reason why they are 0-3 when they've played the second of consecutive games on the road this season.
|
12-23-15 |
Mavs -3 v. Nets |
|
119-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
The Mavericks are going to be missing Deron Williams and Devin Harris, but I have confidence veterans Raymond Felton and J.J. Barea can handle point guard duties. The Nets have been playing terrible defense allowing 100 or more points in six straight games. They rank second to last in offense so they can't make up for it on the offensive end. Brooklyn has lost its last four home games. The Nets need Joe Johnson to step up, but he's been ice cold shooting 28.3 percent from the floor in his last five games.
|
12-23-15 |
Kings v. Pacers -6.5 |
Top |
108-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a stop-the-pain game for the Pacers and the spot sets up right. Indiana is coming off road losses to Memphis and San Antonio. Now the Pacers return to Bankers Life Fieldhouse for this matchup before going back on the road Saturday. The Pacers have been tremendous at home going 10-1, including 8-3 ATS, in their last 11 games. Their only home loss during this span came to Golden State. Sacramento concludes a four-game, six-day road trip with this game. The tired Kings rely heavily on DeMarcus Cousins, who is mired in a shooting slump making less than 38 percent of his field goal attempts in nine games this month. The Pacers aren't going to lack motivation as they lost both games to the Kings last season.
|
12-21-15 |
Santa Clara +4.5 v. Pacific |
Top |
72-73 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
Pacific is trying to unravel itself from a major mess involving academic misconduct. The fallout being the Tigers are 1-8 with their head coach and an assistant coach suspended indefinitely. There isn't a lot of incentive either even though this is their West Coast Conference opener as the Tigers are under a postseason ban as part of the sanctions. Santa Clara has a lot of youth, but also has come on to win four of its last five games. The Broncos have a pair of outstanding players, guard Jared Brownridge and forward Nate Kratch. Brownridge had 44 points in an overtime loss to 10th-ranked Arizona. He's averaging 18.9 points. Kratch is one of the best inside players in the conference averaging 12.4 points and 9.3 rebounds. Pacific could be without center and third leading scorer, T.J. Wallace. He has been bothered by a toe injury. Note, too, that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the series.
|
12-20-15 |
Cardinals -3.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
40-17 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 34 m |
Show
|
Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game. Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game.
|
12-20-15 |
Packers -3 v. Raiders |
|
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
97 h 36 m |
Show
|
The Packers are playing very good defense and their offense is back in sync with Eddie Lacy running well - like he usually does late in the season - and Mike McCarthy calling plays again. Green Bay is better than Oakland on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are improved, but still several tiers below Green Bay. Oakland has played better on the road going 4-3 compared to 2-4 at home. Derek Carr is showing signs of hitting the wall. Latavius Murray already has. Aaron Rodgers isn't having an MVP season, but he still has a 28-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Timing means a lot in the NFL. The Raiders are catching the Packers at a time when Green Bay has picked up its game. The difference between these two teams when playing in Oakland is far closer to a touchdown than a field goal.
|
12-20-15 |
Bears +5.5 v. Vikings |
|
17-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Vikings are much improved under Mike Zimmer, but they are not an elite team and they are not built to cover margins of more than a field goal - especially against division foes - with a passing attack that ranks 31st. Only once has Teddy Bridgewater thrown for more than one touchdown pass in a game. While Zimmer has done an excellent job, so has the coaching staff of the Bears. Since Week 4, Chicago has gone 5-5. The Bears lost two of those games in overtime and the other three by a combined eight points with none of those defeats occurring by more than three points. One of those losses was 23-20 to the Vikings in Week 8 on a Minnesota field goal at the gun. Adrian Peterson can expect to see a stacked line keying on him. Not only is Bridgewater a bottom tier quarterback - far more game manager than playmaker - but the Bears rank second in pass defense. The Bears' offensive line has shown improvement and their key wide receivers - Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royals - should be healthy enough to play. Jay Cutler is playing under control thanks to new offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Cutler is an easy target to rip, but I like him far more than Bridgewater. The Bears also now have two good running backs with Jeremy Langford keeping Matt Forte fresh. The Vikings will be without linebacker Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith again and possibly nose guard Linval Joseph. Their defense isn't as good without those key defenders.
|
12-19-15 |
New Mexico State +4 v. UTEP |
Top |
73-53 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
New Mexico State had no problem with Texas El-Paso just 17 days ago, winning 73-59 at home. The Miners couldn't stop Pascal Siakam, who scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. This isn't some fluke. The Aggies won the Western Athletic Conference last season and WAC Tournament. They are favored to do it again this season thanks in large part to Siakam, who is the best player in the conference and someone UTEP has problems matching up against. Siakam already been named the conference player of the week three times. Siakam ranks in the top 10 in the country in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage. The teams have played five times since 2013 with the Aggies going 4-1. Their only loss to UTEP during this span came by one point last season on the road. I don't believe UTEP is the better team. So getting points is an added bonus.
|
12-19-15 |
Jets -3 v. Cowboys |
Top |
19-16 |
Push |
0 |
103 h 22 m |
Show
|
Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it. Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
|
12-18-15 |
Grizzlies +2.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
88-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 1 m |
Show
|
Memphis matches up well to the Mavericks as evidenced by the Grizzlies covering four of the last five in this series, including defeating Dallas, 110-96, at home on Nov. 24. The smallish, finesse Mavericks have trouble against the taller, more physical Grizzlies in the frontcourt. The Grizzlies outscored the Mavericks by 26 points in the paint during that last meeting and that was without Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol and Randolph are two of the most physical players in the league. The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team whose key shooters are on a cold streak. Dirk Nowitzki is just 20-for-55 (36.3 percent) from the field in his last five games while Wesley Matthews has missed 16 of 23 shots from the floor in his last two games. Dallas isn't playing well losing eight of its last 13. The Mavericks also are banged up. Backup point guard Devin Harris may not play and Chandler Parsons is dealing with a knee injury. The Grizzlies are just 14-13, but have played a difficult schedule. They've been better on the road going 7-5-1 ATS compared to 4-10 ATS at home. They are 3-1-1 the past five times they've been road 'dogs.
|
12-16-15 |
Bucks +11.5 v. Clippers |
Top |
90-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
The spot and situation set up perfect for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS this season when playing without rest. The Bucks will be highly motivated after coach Jason Kidd ripped them for their embarrassing 113-95 loss to the Lakers last night. Obviously the Bucks were in a major letdown spot still celebrating ending Golden State's 24-0 start during their previous game. The Bucks should be far more intense for this matchup. They won't have leading scorer and rebounder Greg Monroe back after he missed the Lakers game with a knee injury. But the Bucks have had a game to adjust to Monroe's absence. The Clippers just returned from a five-game, 10-day road trip that concluded with an overtime victory against the Pistons on Monday night. The Clippers' main stars - Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan - all logged major minutes. The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and have a far bigger game on deck Friday when they play the Spurs on the road.
|
12-15-15 |
Rockets +2 v. Kings |
Top |
97-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are 7-3 in their last 10 games snapping out of their early season funk. They match up well to the Kings - particularly James Harden - having defeated them seven consecutive times. Houston is 8-2 in its last 10 visits to Sacramento. Houston catches a break in that the Kings will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo. Harden is averaging 37 points and 11 assists in two games against Sacramento this season - both victories. Career-wise, Harden averages 33 points against the Kings, the highest he averages against any opponent. Sacramento defeated the Knicks, 99-97, in its last game. That was back on Thursday, though. Not playing for fourth straight days is too long of a break for an NBA team during this point of the season. The Kings also happen to be 6-19-1 ATS following a victory.
|
12-14-15 |
Rockets -5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
108-114 |
Loss |
-102 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are in double revenge mode against the Nuggets. Houston is much more together and playing far better than the last two times it played and lost to Denver, including being embarrassed at home by 20 points in its opening game. The Rockets are 7-2 in their last nine games. The team has responded to interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Houston always had the talent, but the right coaching had to come into place. One move that has paid major dividends is starting Patrick Beverly at point guard instead of Ty Lawson, who wasn't a good fit in the backcourt with offensive-minded James Harden. Houston is averaging 111.7 points in its last nine games. Denver averages fewer than 97 points a game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. The Nuggets are not in Houston's class. They haven't been good at home either going 4-7 at Pepsi Center with all of their defeats coming by seven or more points. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Denver has injuries, too. Starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is out leaving washed-up Jameer Nelson to soak up the most minutes. The Nuggets also have injuries in their frontcourt.
|
12-14-15 |
Heat v. Hawks -5 |
|
100-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 46 m |
Show
|
Atlanta has had Miami's number winning the past seven meetings, including going 4-0 ATS the last four times in Atlanta. The Heat haven't covered during their last eight meetings versus the Hawks. Miami has played only seven road games so far going 2-5. The Heat have scored 83 points or less in three of their past four away contests. On the season, Miami is averaging 88.1 points away from American Airlines Arena. This is a bad spot, too, for the Heat. They are coming off a 100-97 home win against Memphis on Sunday in which they rallied from 16 points down. This will be just the second time the Heat are playing without rest. The last time was back on Nov. 6 when they lost and failed to cover on the road against the Pacers. The Hawks, on the other hand, were idle yesterday. They are motivated to perform much better than they did when they were buried, 103-78, at home by San Antonio two days ago. That was the Hawks' first game back after being on the road last Wednesday and Thursday. They are fully rested and settled in now.
|
12-13-15 |
Patriots -3 v. Texans |
|
27-6 |
Win
|
100 |
135 h 21 m |
Show
|
This game has been moved to Sunday night. The Texans are not prime time ready. New England certainly is. It's rare to get the Patriots off a loss. It's near impossible to ever get Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off consecutive losses. The last time that happened was 2002! Belichick and Brady are coming off rare bad performances for them. I want them going for me in this spot. Before getting upset by the Eagles this past Sunday, the Patriots were 8-0 straight-up and ATS when coming off a loss, with an average winning margin of 14 points. The Texans haven't been able to put together a consistent ground attack since losing Arian Foster. New England, however, is far more banged-up. That's a big reason why this line is so low. Still, no coach is better than Belichick at finding role players to fill in the niches and no quarterback is better than Brady in putting them in position to succeed. I fully expect Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, James White and Scott Chandler to play well replacing Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski. The Texans weren't able to take advantage of Buffalo missing its starting right guard and right tackle last Sunday. The Texans only had one sacks against the Bills, none by J.J. Watt. This is a rare marquee matchup for the Texans. They have a number of former Patriot coaches and players. But their biggest game of the season actually comes next week when they play the Colts in a matchup that will hold huge implications for the AFC South Division title. The Patriots are used to pressure games and performing under the national spotlight. Not so with the Texans.
|
12-13-15 |
Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos |
|
15-12 |
Win
|
100 |
83 h 58 m |
Show
|
The Raiders have actually played better on the road where there is less of a winning expectation. Apparently this, perhaps subconsciously, has removed some of the pressure from their young players. Oakland has won three away games. The last time the Raiders did that was in 2011. Derek Carr is a much better quarterback than Brock Osweiler, who is more game manager than downfield threat. Only two of Carr's nine interceptions have come on the road. Carr also has only been sacked five times on the road compared to 11 at home. He has 26 touchdowns throws with a chance to set the Raiders' franchise record for TD passes in a season. Denver is extremely banged-up. Both of the Broncos' running back, C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, are nursing injuries. Denver's offensive line is thinned by injuries and its defense could be missing four starters. The Broncos know how to win, but they are not built to cover margins like this. Only three of their 10 victories have come by more than seven points. Denver is averaging just 17.7 points during regulation in its last four games. The Raiders held the Broncos to without a touchdown on offense in a 16-10 loss in Week 5.
|
12-13-15 |
Redskins v. Bears -3 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-125 |
105 h 22 m |
Show
|
Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense. Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing.
|
12-13-15 |
Steelers +3 v. Bengals |
|
33-20 |
Win
|
100 |
80 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Bengals took advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger when they beat the Steelers, 16-10, in Week 8. Roethlisberger threw three interceptions in his first game back after missing four games because of a knee injury. Look for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offense to play far better this time around. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. Roethlisberger is averaging 383.2 yards passing in his last four games throwing for 10 touchdowns during this span. Antonio Brown is a monster when Big Ben is behind center. He's caught seven touchdown passes in the eight games Roethlisberger has played. Making matters worse for the Bengals is their secondary has injuries. Cornerback Adam Jones is not expected to play due to a foot injury. Cincinnati also may be missing cornerback Leon Hall with a back injury and free safety George Iloka with a groin injury. Another cornerback, Dre Kirkpatric, is limited by a knee injury. Jones, Hall and Kirkpatrick are all veteran cornerbacks. If they're limited - or absent - the Bengals are forced to rely on a pair of rookies one being undrafted Troy Hill against one of the top passing offenses in the league. The Steelers have only given up three rushing touchdowns all season. I like Roethlisberger far better than Andy Dalton if this one turns into a shootout, which it very well could do. The Bengals have been fortunate up to this point with injuries. That luck, though, is running out. Cincinnati has only outgained five of its last 10 opponents. The Bengals are ripe for a fall with a three game division lead on the more desperate 7-5 Steelers. Pittsburgh has a strong history playing at Cincinnati and playing in December. The Steelers have won and covered in four of their last five visits to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh also is 8-0 straight-up and ATS in its last eight December games.
|
12-12-15 |
UCLA +8 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
71-66 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites. UCLA is more than capable of springing the upset. Just ask Kentucky. The Bruins beat the Wildcats, 87-77, two games ago as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Bruins have had a week to prepare for this matchup having been idle the past six days. The Bruins are tough to defend because they have a well balanced lineup. All five of their starters can score. UCLA can hang with Gonzaga on the boards and are a much better free throw shooting team. UCLA also has revenge for an 87-74 home loss to the Bulldogs last season.
|
12-12-15 |
Celtics v. Hornets -2 |
Top |
98-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
Charlotte is playing its best ball winning four in a row. The Hornets are giving up just 90 points per game during this span. Sparked by improved Kemba Walker and newcomer Nicolas Batum, who is enjoying a big comeback season, the Hornets have quietly won 14 of their last 19 and own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets' confidence is sky high after burying Memphis, 123-99, on the road last night. The lopsided margin allowed Charlotte to rest its regulars down the stretch. Only Walker logged more than 31 minutes. Boston also played well last night - but lost 124-119 in double overtime to undefeated Golden State at home. The Celtics probably should have won the game. It was a monster effort by the Celtics. Boston has good depth and is well coached. However, I can't see the Celtics turning out another strong, motivated performance off this brutal loss and with no rest on the road against a team that is playing as well as Charlotte is. The timing is all wrong for Boston. The Hornets have won 10 of their last 13 home contests. They are better than Boston, at home and in a much better situation spot.
|
12-11-15 |
Cavs -3 v. Magic |
Top |
111-76 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
Orlando is much improved, playing far better defense under Scott Skiles than they did under Jacque Vaughn last season. The Magic's young players are developing well under Skills, too. But the Magic aren't ready to step up against Cleveland as this low spread may indicate. The Cavaliers have defeated Orlando 11 consecutive times, winning those matchups by an average of 14.1 points a game. They defeated the Magic, 117-103, at home on Nov. 23. Cleveland has covered in its last six visits to Orlando. The Magic can now beat bad teams. But they have struggled against elite foes. Their best win is against Toronto. The Magic lack a go-to scorer. They struggle in close games often taking bad shots late in games and losing composure. The veteran Cavaliers can exploit that. Orlando has no answer for LeBron James. There's a chance the Cavaliers could also get back Iman Shumpert here. I can't see the Magic having the consistency for four quarters that is necessary to beat an opponent the caliber of Cleveland. James is going to get to the free throw line often as Orlando gives up the fourth-most foul shots per 48 minutes in the league. The Magic, however, just rank 28th in free throws attempted. So I envision a disparity in free throw shots between the two teams as the youthful Magic get too pumped for this marquee opponent. The spot isn't good either for the Magic. The Cavaliers have been idle since Tuesday. Orlando, on the other hand, finished a five-game, 10-day road trip with a 107-104 loss to the Suns this past Wednesday night leaving them little time to get back adjusted to Florida life.
|
12-10-15 |
Vikings v. Cardinals -7.5 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
37 h 10 m |
Show
|
It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday. Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense.
|
12-09-15 |
Long Beach State +4 v. Pepperdine |
Top |
75-77 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 11 m |
Show
|
I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here. Long Beach State is 5-5. But its losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State twice, San Diego State and UCLA. Those were all on the road, too. This has made the 49ers battle-tested and underrated. The 49ers are an excellent 3-point shooting team with good depth. Nick Faust just was named Big West Conference Player of the Week this past Monday. The Maryland transfer is living up to his billing averaging better than 17 points per game. Sophomore point guard Justin Bibbins is playing well, too, keeping up the 49ers' tradition of good point guards. Bibbins has done the job replacing three-year starter Michael Caffey, ranking second in the Big West in assists and being 16th in the nation in assists-to-turnovers. Pepperdine doesn't have Long Beach State's offense, is undersized and turnover-prone. The 49ers average four more points per game than the Waves and are better from the free throw line. Pepperdine lost by 14 to UCLA on the road earlier this season, while Long Beach State fell to the Bruins by seven in its last game this past Sunday. The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, while Pepperdine has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.
|
12-09-15 |
Lakers +6.5 v. Wolves |
|
122-123 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
As bad as the Lakers are, the Timberwolves can't be laying these many points. Minnesota have lost four in a row. They are 2-9 at home and 4-22-1 ATS during their last 27 games at Target Center versus an opponent with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Lakers have revenge for a one-point home loss to Minnesota in which they shot just 37.6 percent from the field. LA has won during its last two visits to Minnesota. Kobe Bryant actually made half of his field goal attempts in the Lakers' last game helping the Lakers cover against the Raptors. The Lakers are going to have few winnable road matchups. This is one of them.
|
12-09-15 |
Grizzlies +4 v. Pistons |
|
93-92 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
The Grizzlies haven't yet reverted to their past consistent form. But they still are a level above the Pistons. This is a bounce back spot for Memphis after being embarrassed, 125-88, by Oklahoma City at home last night. The lone bright spot for Memphis from that game is that only Zach Randolph played more than 30 minutes. Memphis has followed up each of its last four defeats with a victory in its next game. The Pistons have matchup problems against the Grizzlies lacking the perimeter game to draw the Grizzlies' big front line out of the paint. Only two teams are shooting worse from the floor than the Pistons, who make less than 42 percent of their field goals. The Pistons also are 21st in defensive field goal percentage at 45.1 percent. Memphis is 10-0 when shooting above 42 percent from the field.
|
12-08-15 |
Rockets -4 v. Nets |
Top |
105-110 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
It took the firing of Kevin McHale and getting Ty Lawson out of the starting point guard role, but the Rockets are finally coming on. They've won three in a row and five of their last six. Houston has beaten the Nets in 11 of its last 12 visits. The Rockets catch the Nets shorthanded missing two of their rotation players, Andrea Bargnani and rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who had been providing Brooklyn with a spark. Patrick Beverly is a much better point guard fit for the Rockets than the diminutive Lawson because he's unselfish and is a much better defender. James Harden needs to be able to concentrate on his offense. Harden has been playing up to his superstar level since the change. The Rockets aren't shy about shooting 3-pointers with Harden. The Nets rank 27th in 3-point defense. This isn't a flat spot game either for the Rockets. They have revenge for when the Nets beat them in Houston, 106-98, on Nov. 11 when they weren't playing well.
The Nets are last in 3-pointers and third-to-last in scoring. They haven't reached triple digits in their last six games.
|
12-07-15 |
Suns v. Bulls -6 |
Top |
103-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
Through the course of the long NBA season there are certain up and down spots. Phoenix is in one of the major down spots in its season both physically and mentally. The Suns are playing their sixth road game in nine days, fifth in seven days and second in two days. After this matchup in Chicago, the Suns finally get to head back to the desert. where they haven't been since the day after Thanksgiving. Not only do the Suns carry the highest fatigue rating, but they are demoralized and down mentally. They are 1-8 in their last nine games, 0-4 in their last four games blowing fourth-quarter leads during each game of their losing streak. The worst was on Sunday when the Suns came from six points down against the always physical Grizzlies with 90 seconds left. The Suns managed to tie the score and had the ball for a final shot. However, with less than a second left Brandon Knight lost the ball out of bounds. The Grizzlies then managed to pull off a perfect half-court alley-oop pass to Jeff Green for a dunk and a 95-93 victory. Eric Bledsoe and Jon Leuer each logged more than 40 minutes in the game while Brandon Knight played more than 37 minutes. The Suns do not have a strong bench. During their four-game losing streak, the Suns have lost by a combined 13 points. None of their defeats was by more than five points. They are due to get blown out and the Bulls have the capability and situation to do just that.
Chicago has the fifth highest winning percentage in the NBA. The Bulls beat the Suns, 103-97, on the road on Nov. 18 without Derrick Rose and when Phoenix had Tyson Chandler. The big center has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is not expected to play today. Memphis scored 48 points in the paint yesterday against the Suns, who are vulnerable inside without their best rim defender.
The Bulls shouldn't lack for motivation. They are off an embarrassing, 102-96, home loss to Charlotte from two days ago. The Bulls have won and covered the past five times following a defeat.
|
12-06-15 |
Colts v. Steelers -7 |
|
10-45 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Colts couldn't win a shootout last year against Ben Roethlisberger losing 51-34 at Pittsburgh. That was with Andrew Luck. I don't see the Colts keeping up with Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's high-scoring offense this year with Matt Hasselbeck and a having a worse team than from a year ago. Hasselbeck is 4-0 replacing Luck. Kudos to him. But there's a due factor - and the clock is ticking. I see it stopping in this matchup. The Colts dominate their weak AFC South Division brothers. Out of division, though, they have problems. Roethlisberger has led the Steelers to three consecutive games of scoring at least 30 points. The Colts don't have the quarterback to keep up, nor the defense to slow down the Steelers especially minus underrated injured linebacker Jerrell Freeman. Pittsburgh ranks fourth in total yards despite not having Roethlisberger for four games and is seventh in run defense. They have too much balance for the Colts, who rank 22nd in yards and 26th in yards given up.
|
12-06-15 |
Broncos v. Chargers +4.5 |
|
17-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
103 h 28 m |
Show
|
Denver is in a prime letdown spot traveling to sunny San Diego after upsetting New England at home in a prime time Sunday night victory at home in frigid conditions. The Broncos won in overtime exerting a lot of energy in coming back from two touchdowns down in the final quarter. The Broncos could be down three starters on defense on top of already being thin in the offensive line. The Broncos are led by Brock Osweiler, who has done a nice job since replacing Peyton Manning. But the Broncos are not a downfield, attacking type team. They are run-oriented and short-passing with Osweiler, not built to cover mid-size spreads against division foes on the road especially in a flat spot like this. This has been a lost year for the Chargers. But they did get a large part of their confidence back by winning on the road last week. Philip Rivers is having another brilliant campaign. He makes the Chargers live to beat any foe. The Chargers have come close against the Bengals losing by five points, hung tough against the Packers having a chance to force overtime at the Green Bay three-yard line before running out of downs late in the game and losing at the gun at Baltimore. The Chargers are getting healthier, especially at linebacker. Rivers' savvy covers up their offensive line injuries and Melvin Gordon ran better last week.
|
12-06-15 |
Suns v. Grizzlies -5.5 |
Top |
93-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a kill spot for the rested Grizzlies against the weary Suns. Phoenix, with its small lineup, doesn't match up well to the physical Grizzlies. Phoenix has lost during its last seven meetings to Memphis. That's not going to change here. The Suns are playing their fifth consecutive road game and fourth in five days. This is an early start time, too, another negative for the Suns. The Suns are are an up-tempo, guard-oriented team that is running on empty. The Suns also could be without their lone decent big man, Tyson Chandler, for a fifth straight game. The Grizzlies are 8-3 in their last 11 games, having stepped up their play. But they are off their most lopsided loss in a month falling to San Antonio, 103-83, at home this past Thursday. They've had two full days to regroup and get psyched up to take their frustrations out on the Suns. Phoenix just wants to get home. The Suns have lost seven of their past eight playing no defense giving up 113.4 points per game during this span. The Grizzlies offense has picked up with the recent recent pick up of Mario Chalmers. Before losing to the Spurs, the Grizzlies had scored 101 or more points in five of their last six games.
|
12-06-15 |
Cardinals -5.5 v. Rams |
Top |
27-3 |
Win
|
100 |
148 h 30 m |
Show
|
The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy. The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense. St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now.
|
12-06-15 |
Ravens v. Dolphins -4 |
|
13-15 |
Loss |
-105 |
100 h 7 m |
Show
|
It's not that I'm in love with Miami. This handicap is far more of a fade on Baltimore. The Ravens are decimated without their quarterback, top running back, top wide receiver, top pass rusher and perhaps three starting offensive linemen. All together, the Ravens have lost a staggering 17 players for the season. Yet the Ravens pulled off an improbable road win on Monday night against division rival Cleveland. It's one of the few times the Ravens get to celebrate this season. It also puts them in a terrible situation to go back on the road on a short week to face a frustrated Dolphins team that is much healthier than the Ravens. The Dolphins have been disappointing much of the season. But they are 3-4 under interim coach Dan Campbell compared to 1-3 under disposed coach Joe Philbin. Campbell isn't going to outsmart many opposing head coaches, but the Dolphins have been more physical under him and usually have been at their best in a bullying role. That's the spot here as the Ravens are the Ravens in name only. Injuries have reduced their talent level to bottom of the barrel. Matt Schaub has a 12-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio since 2013. He has become the king of Pick-Sixes throwing five of them during this span. A switch in offensive coordinators should help the Dolphins revitalize their ground attack, which would make Ryan Tannehill more effective.
|
12-05-15 |
Magic v. Clippers -2.5 |
Top |
101-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 16 m |
Show
|
Orlando has won five in a row. The Clippers are going to be without star point guard Chris Paul and possibly starting shooting guard J.J. Redick. But there still is enough of a class difference that the Clippers should win especially at home. Orlando's victories during its win streak have been against the Knicks, Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves and Jazz minus Rudy Gobert. This is a step-up game for the Magic. The Clippers swept last season's two meetings winning by an average of 26 points. Orlando is much improved this season under Scott Skiles, but the gap hasn't been cut nearly enough where the Magic can win this game even without Paul. The Clippers have a veteran, strong bench. The Clippers can overcome the loss of their starting backcourt and will be fired-up to play after being embarrassed at home by the Pacers in their last game this past Wednesday.
|
12-05-15 |
North Carolina v. Clemson -4.5 |
|
37-45 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 3 m |
Show
|
Early money has been on North Carolina shrinking the line in this ACC title matchup. I believe that money is wrong. Clemson is the better team on both sides of the ball and is experienced in huge games, something the Tar Heels are not. This is North Carolina's first ACC championship game. Clemson took advantage of the Tar Heels' lack of defense last year winning, 50-35, at home. Deshaun Watson accounted for seven touchdowns in that game and the Tigers rolled up 528 yards. True, North Carolina is much improved defensively from last season. But the gap still is larger than this spread. North Carolina has won 11 in a row. Impressive, but its schedule wasn't that difficult. Two victories came against FCS opponents. The Tar Heels and Tigers did meet five common foes. Clemson allowed an average of 150 yards less per game than North Carolina did against those foes and nearly 11 fewer first downs per game than North Carolina did against those opponents. The Tar Heels can't match Clemson's big game pedigree either. Clemson upset Ohio State in the Orange Bowl two seasons ago and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, in its bowl game last season. North Carolina played in lesser bowl games the previous two seasons. I respect North Carolina's skill position players, but I like Watson better than any other college quarterback and I want him going for me in this game. Watson was the only player to pass for at least 3,000 yards and rushed for 756 yards. He also completed 70.4 percent of his throws, third-best in the nation. The Tar Heels have failed to cover nine of the past 14 times as an underdog under Larry Fedora.
|
12-05-15 |
Kings v. Rockets -3 |
|
113-120 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
|
This line is short given how bad the Kings are and how the Rockets are turning things around under interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Sacramento is 1-3 in its last four games and coming off a dreadful second half effort against Boston this past Thursday night in a game played in Mexico. The Kings also lost rookie big man Willie Cauley-Stein for four-to-six weeks after he suffered a dislocated right index finger in the loss to the Celtics. Houston has covered in five of its last six meetings versus the Kings winning all six. James Harden takes full advantage of the Kings' porous defense, which ranks 29th in defensive scoring and in defensive field goal percentage. Harden is averaging 46 points while shooting 53.8 percent from the floor in his last three games against the Kings. The Rockets have picked up their play since firing Kevin McHale winning four of their last five. Houston defeated Dallas on the road last night without Dwight Howard. He's expected to play in this matchup going against DeMarcus Cousins.
|
12-04-15 |
Nets +3.5 v. Knicks |
Top |
91-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are improved this season, but the Nets are way under the radar screen. The perception is the Nets are one of the worst teams in the league. They fulfilled those low expectations and increased that perception by losing their first seven games, covering just once. Since then, however, the Nets have gone 10-1 ATS. During this span they took unbeaten Golden State to overtime on the road, lost by two to the Cavaliers on the road while posting victories against the Rockets, Hawks, Celtics, Pistons and Suns. They have stayed within two points in regulation in eight of their last 11 games. Brooklyn has covered six of its last seven away contests and enter this matchup in good form and with the confidence of having gone 4-0 versus the Knicks last season. The Nets last played on Tuesday when they defeated the Suns, 94-91. During the weekend they lost 90-88 at Cleveland when LeBron James sank a last-second shot and then defeated the Pistons on Sunday. The Nets are a sparkling 8-0 ATS on two days rest. The Knicks halted a four-game losing streak by beating the lowly 76ers on Wednesday taking advantage of a favorable situation where Philadelphia had just ended the longest losing streak in pro sports history the night before and were playing the Knicks without their leading scorer and rebounder, Jahlil Okafor. The Knicks have failed to cover the past four times when playing on one day rest.
|
12-02-15 |
76ers v. Knicks -8.5 |
Top |
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
This may be the only time all season, but the 76ers are in a letdown spot. Philadelphia got the monkey off its back ending its 28-game losing streak by beating the Lakers, 103-91, at home last night. Now the 76ers have to play 24 hours later on the road - and for the third time in four days - against a Knicks team that desperately needs to win this game. The 76ers lack the maturity and experience to play well without rest after an emotional victory. New York has been idle since Sunday. The Knicks have lost four in a row after a tough overtime loss to Houston. The Knicks were missing Carmelo Anthony due to illness in that loss. He's expected to play today. The Knicks have increased their firepower with Anthony, a now healthy Arron Affalo and good-looking rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who is averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds during his last five games.
|
11-30-15 |
Nuggets v. Bucks -3 |
Top |
74-92 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have revenge for a 103-102 loss to the Nuggets on Nov. 11. The Bucks were minus Michael Carter-Williams and Jabari Parker in that game. Denver has lost six in a row. The Nuggets have failed to cover in their last five games. The Bucks are the deeper team and have shown signs of playing better defense.
The Bucks have the defensive guards and depth to exploit Denver rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who is on pace to become the first player in league history to shoot less than 35 percent from the field and commit an average of three turnovers a game.
|
11-29-15 |
Rams v. Bengals -8 |
|
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 49 m |
Show
|
The Bengals are anxious to return to their winning ways after losing the past two weeks in nationally televised losses to the Texans and Cardinals. Cincinnati is very tough at home where they have covered 17 of their past 22 games. Cincinnati doesn't have a major weakness and is one of the healthiest teams in the league. The Rams' strength is their defense and running back Todd Gurley. The Bengals have a balanced attack and a defense that allows 18.6 points per game, fourth-lowest in the NFL. I see the Bengals trumping the Rams on both sides of the ball. St. Louis' offensive line is decimated down three starters. Left tackle Greg Robinson has looked terrible. The Rams quarterback situation of Case Keenum and Nick Foles could be the weakest in the league and can't take advantage of the Bengals loading the box to stop Gurley. The Rams have scored fewer than 20 points in 60 percent of their games. They are averaging 14.6 points in their last three games. Their passing attack ranks last. This also has been a very distracting week for the St. Louis players with its teammate, Steadman Bailey, getting shot. So focus could be an issue, too. The Rams can't hang close unless they produce an "A" effort. I don't see that happening based on matchups and situation.
|
11-29-15 |
Bills +6.5 v. Chiefs |
|
22-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
58 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Bills are a gritty team whose defense has improved as the season winds down with the players becoming more familiar with Rex Ryan's schemes. Buffalo just held the Patriots, with their second-rated offense, to a season-low 20 points. Kansas City is getting a lot of love, though, in this matchup because it has won and covered four in a row. Kudos to Andy Reid for keeping the Chiefs together after a tough early-season, but his team isn't that good. The Chiefs hit a lucky patch during their win streak. First they beat the Steelers when Pittsburgh had to use Landry Jones at quarterback. Jones is one of the worst backups in the league. The Chiefs then caught the Lions in London when Detroit was still in disarray and had just made a switch in offensive coordinators. Kansas City then drew the Broncos when Peyton Manning was playing hurt and at his most ineffective. After that win was a victory last week against a messed-up, injury-racked Chargers squad that was at their lowest ebb. The Chiefs rank well below average in passing, which is no surprise with Alex Smith at center. Smith can win given weapons, but he's not going to pile on points. Because of their passing limitations, the Chiefs heavily rely on their tailback. That tailback could be third-stringer Spencer Ware. So Smith doesn't have outstanding weapons.
|
11-29-15 |
Chargers +4.5 v. Jaguars |
Top |
31-25 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 44 m |
Show
|
So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced. Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence. Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road. When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win.
|
11-28-15 |
Nets +10 v. Cavs |
Top |
88-90 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
The won-lost record is terrible, but quietly the Nets have covered seven of their last eight games. They are 4-0 ATS this season when getting 10 or more points. The Nets are a veteran team that should be motivated going against LeBron James. The Cavaliers aren't so excited about playing the lowly Nets especially after ending a three-game road losing streak by defeating Charlotte, 95-90, last night. James played 38 minutes in that game so he's likely not to log such a high minute count in this matchup. While the Cavaliers were playing a tough game last night, the Nets have been idle the past two days. Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS the last seven times when playing on two days rest. They also are 21-7 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a victory. The Cavaliers, still minus Kyrie Irving, have yet to come together. They have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. That's evident in the Cavaliers just beating the winless 76ers by seven and six points this season.
|
11-28-15 |
Ohio State v. Michigan |
Top |
42-13 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 45 m |
Show
|
Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. Jim Harbaugh has been everything Michigan could have hoped for this season restoring the Wolverines back into elite status. But Michigan isn't in Ohio State's class yet. The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. Urban Meyer won't hold a coaching edge like he has on past Michigan coaches, but he does still have a talent advantage. Ezekiel Elliott is going to get the ball a lot. He didn't show a lot of class after the Buckeyes fell to the Spartans, but he's one of the best running backs in the country. Elliott has rushed for 3,336 yards the past two seasons and scored 35 touchdowns. Michigan couldn't stop Indiana on the ground two weeks ago as Jordan Howard ran for 238 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries.. Ohio State has a better ground attack than the Hooisers. The Wolverines aren't going to be able to control Elliott, who will set things up for J.T. Barrett. I'm not a huge fan of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, even though he has played well lately. He's not good enough to carry the Wolverines if they don't establish at least a semblance of a ground attack, which I don't see them doing. The Buckeyes have an extremely physical line. De'Veon Smith is the Wolverines' starting running back, but he's a grinder not suited to attack a physical defense.
The Buckeyes rank 30th in run defense and fifth in pass defense. Only two players in the country have more career sacks than Ohio State's Joey Bosa, who has 25.
|
11-26-15 |
Panthers +1 v. Cowboys |
Top |
33-14 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 2 m |
Show
|
Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio. Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman.
|
11-25-15 |
Kings v. Bucks -4.5 |
|
129-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have the offense to take advantage of Sacramento's 29th-ranked defense that is yielding nearly 109 points per game. The Bucks are coming off a 109-point game against the Pistons two nights ago, the most they've scored since the second game of the season. Milwaukee's bench scoring is up with O.J. Mayo back after missing the first 11 games of the season. The Kings aren't likely to have star center DeMarcus Cousins. If Cousins doesn't play - as expected - the Kings are weakened on both ends of the court. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint against the Pistons while shooting 52 percent from the field. Milwaukee's athleticism can hurt the Kings' too. Sacramento ranks last in defensive field goal percentage. The Kings have yet to win in five games without Cousins this season. They are 2-3 ATS without him. Their closest loss without Cousins was by six points. The Kings also are facing fatigue issues. This marks their fifth consecutive road game and fifth game in eight days. They return to California after the game so their focus could be off.
|
11-24-15 |
Celtics v. Hawks -3.5 |
|
97-121 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
Boston is a well-coached, overachieving bunch that can't be taken for granted. The Hawks aren't about to do that in this revenge spot. The Hawks got pushed around 11 days ago in a 106-93 road loss to Boston. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer had to miss that game due to personal reasons. He's back and has had ample time to prepare since Atlanta last played on Saturday. The Hawks go on a three-game road trip immediately following this game. Then they return home to face Oklahoma City and Toronto. So this is a game they need to focus and win. Atlanta has lost four of its last five. But the Hawks are now finally healthy with point guard Jeff Teague back. Teague, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver were all All-Stars last season. The Hawks are due to start playing better. The Celtics' backcourt lost some of their depth with Marcus Smart out. He is Boston's top perimeter defensive guard.
|
11-24-15 |
Mavs v. Grizzlies -3 |
|
96-110 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
Dallas has been better than expected. Credit to Rick Carlisle and veterans Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams. However, the Mavericks have match up problems in this game. Their weakness is inside where the Grizzlies are tough even if Zach Randolph remains out. Dallas has lost four of five times when surrendering 44 or more points in the paint. The Grizzlies have beaten the Mavericks 10 of the last 14 times, including four of the past five times. The Mavericks do not have a good road history when stepping up at 5-17 ATS when meeting an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies started slow, but are beginning to come on. If not for a road loss to power San Antonio they would be riding a five-game winning streak. Memphis is the more rested team, too, having been idle since Saturday. Dallas played two days ago losing a tough 117-114 road game to Oklahoma City.
|
11-22-15 |
Bengals +5 v. Cardinals |
|
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 10 m |
Show
|
Aside from the Patriots, the Bengals shouldn't be more than a field goal underdog to any team. The Bengals will be especially fired up to redeem themselves after being upset on Monday night at home by Houston. This play isn't against the Cardinals. I like Bruce Arians a lot. The Cardinals are normally a play-on team - just not in this matchup at this price. Arizona isn't helped being banged up in the offensive line and at wide receiver with Michael Floyd and John Brown each questionable. The Cardinals have been fortunate to play an easy schedule. Five of their victories have been against foes whose offenses are near the bottom of the statistical rankings. The Bengals are solid up and down. They don't have a serious weakness and own a 7-1-1 ATS mark. Andy Dalton is having his finest season backed by weapons at wide receiver, running back and tight end with Tyler Eifert, who has nine touchdowns in the red zone this season.
|
11-22-15 |
Akron +15 v. Villanova |
|
56-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 53 m |
Show
|
Akron has the versatility and 3-point shooters to hang around with Villanova. The Zips proved that in upsetting Arkanas, 88-80, at Arkansas. Akron is hitting 41.3 percent from 3-point range. The Zips also rank first in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. This combination plus an inflated pointspread make the Zips attractive. The Zips also have a proven track record versus strong teams going 12-3-1 ATS the past 16 times when taking on opponents with a winning percentage above .600.
|
11-22-15 |
49ers v. Seahawks -12 |
|
13-29 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 17 m |
Show
|
No, the 49ers can't stay within two touchdowns of Seattle. Not with Blaine Gabbert and not down to street free agents at running back. Seattle has been dominant at CenturyLink Field and dominant versus San Francisco. The Seahawks are 15-3 in their last 18 home games with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits. They are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing the 49ers. The 49ers haven't been able to break the 20-point barrier during any of their last nine meetings against the Seahawks, averaging a puny 10.8 points per game during this span. San Francisco has been held to 13 points combined during its last three games against Seattle. The Seahawks beat the 49ers, 20-3, in Week 7 outgaining the 49ers, 388-142. That was the 49ers' lowest yardage total in nine years. Gabbert is a downgrade on Colin Kaepernick, who was the quarterback in the first meeting. Gabbert lacks pocket presence and doesn't have anywhere near the mobility Kaepernick possess. Seattle's offensive line finally has shown signs of coming around. The Seahawks are enduring a frustrating season. Look for them to take out their frustrations at home on a hapless foe. The 49ers have gone from one of the better coaching staffs to one of the most overmatched. There is no love lost between these two division rivals. Pete Carroll won't be shy about sticking it to the 49ers.
|
11-22-15 |
Jets -3 v. Texans |
Top |
17-24 |
Loss |
-120 |
26 h 41 m |
Show
|
Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game. Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster. This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense. The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans.
|
11-21-15 |
Kings v. Magic -2.5 |
Top |
97-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
The oddsmaker continues to underrate the Magic and he's doing it again in this matchup. Orlando has one of the best spread marks in the league at 8-3-1. The Magic are a respectable 6-6 straight-up. The actually could be 10-2 if they had not blown late leads against the Wizards twice, Thunder and Rockets. Still, Orlando has won five of its last seven games. The Magic players are pumped to go above .500 for the first time especially accomplishing the feat at home. The Magic have really improved their defense under Scott Skiles going from 25th in defensive efficiency to ranking in the top five. Orlando draws the Kings playing in their third road game in four days. This could take a toll on fragile point guard Rajon Rondo, who is playing well but logging huge minutes. Sacramento has a poor road history and that's holding up this season. The Kings have yet to win in four away games. There's a possibility the Kings could be without their second-best player, Rudy Gay. He suffered a shoulder injury in the Kings' last game.
|
11-20-15 |
San Jose State +7 v. Montana State |
|
69-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
San Jose State is a bit under-the-radar. The Spartans are more athletic and improved from last season's disastrous season. The Spartans beat Montana, 64-61, in their last game this past Monday. Now they draw 1-2 Montana State, which is overpriced according to my power ratings. The Bobcats have failed to cover in five of their last six home games.
|
11-20-15 |
Portland v. Colorado -13 |
|
63-85 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
Portland is a middle of the road West Coast Conference team that is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games versus Pac-12 teams. I see the Pilots having trouble in this tough road venue, made worse by high altitude. Colorado is extremely tough at home under Tad Boyle going 72-14. The Buffaloes have size, depth and talent despite the loss of several stars from last season. This is a bad early-season foe for the Pilots, who are young in the frontcourt and not settled on a rotation. I don't see the Pilots being competitive against this foe and in this spot.
|
11-20-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Utah +3 |
|
90-66 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
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Miami has been shooting above its heads. I see the Hurricanes having problems dealing with Utah's powerful front line headed by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and Jordan Loveridge. They can control the boards and keep Miami from running. It's not just the Utes' front line I like. The backcourt tandem of Brandon Taylor and Lorenzo Bonam also is playing well. Utah has covered in six of its last eight neutral site games.
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11-20-15 |
76ers +10.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
88-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 5 m |
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The 76ers' losing streak is now at 22, including 0-12 this season following a humiliating 112-85 home loss to Indiana two nights ago. Even the 76ers have a certain pride level - and it has kicked in following that dreadful defeat. Philadelphia opens a six-game road trip against Charlotte, an improved club but not a power by any means. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games versus opponents with a losing mark. The 76ers have played better on the road where there has been less pressure and no booing from their disgusted home crowd. The 76ers have responded by covering three of their last four away contests. During this span, Philadelphia lost to the Bucks by just four points, to the Cavaliers by six and to the Spurs by nine. The Hornets played the Spurs on the road, too, and lost by 20 points. The 76ers aren't without talent with rookie-of-the-year candidate Jahil Okafor, Nerlens Noel and point guard T.J. McConnell.
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11-19-15 |
Boise State +12 v. Arizona |
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76-88 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 51 m |
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Boise State has experience and star power with Anthony Drmic and Nick Duncan. The Broncos are going to get their points. They are 9-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The Broncos are being underrated too much with this high of a point spread. Arizona suffered a lot of losses from last season's team with just center Kaleb Tarczewewski returning. Arizona has had problems with Mountain West teams failing to cover 10 of the past 11 times against them.
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