20* New Mexico/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2.5

The New Mexico Lobos are 5-6 in Bronco Mendenhall's first season on the job.  Now they are one win away from bowl eligibility and will be highly motivated to get that all-important 6th victory.

While the Lobos are motivated, the Hawaii Warriors sit at 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I don't like their mindset, especially after watching them get blasted by a mediocre Utah State team last time out.  They lost 55-10 at Utah State and allowed 580 yards to the Aggies with only 309 themselves, getting outgained by 171 yards.

They lost QB Brayden Schager late in that game to injury and he may not be able to play in this game due to injury.  Whether he plays or not, like New Mexico to win this game and cover.  I just don't think Hawaii is very good and they're definitely not in as good a frame of mind as the Lobos.

New Mexico has one of the best offenses in the country.  They score 33.8 points per game while ranking 4th in total offense at 484.5 yards per game and 7th at 7.0 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance rushing for 249 yards per game and throwing for 236 yards per game behind one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country in Dampier.

Hawaii ranks 78th against the run allowing 153 yards per game and 87th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.  Their run D has been particularly poor of late, allowing 290 rushing yards to UNLV and 321 to Utah State in their last two games.  They definitely let go of the rope against Utah State, and they will let go of it again if New Mexico gets an early lead.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Air Force -3.5

Air Force has been a different team down the stretch.  The Falcons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Fresno State 36-28 as 9.5-point home dogs, upset Oregon State 28-0 as 3-point home dogs and upset Nevada 22-19 as 3-point road dogs.

While the Falcons are improving a ton defensively, it's the fact that they have found a running game that has made them more competitive.  Air Force rushed for 344 yards on Fresno State, 270 yards on Oregon State and 318 yards on Nevada.

That's bad news for San Diego State, which cannot stop the run here down the stretch and looks to have pretty much quit.  The Aztecs are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State, 21-16 at home to New Mexico, 41-20 at UNLV and 41-20 at Utah State.

The Aztecs allowed 541 total yards including 219 rushing to Boise, then 300 rushing to New Mexico, 253 rushing to UNLV and 322 rushing to Utah State.  It's safe to say their defense cannot stop the run, and they are probably out of gas playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I give them almost zero chance of stopping this Air Force triple-option, which they haven't faced yet this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State ML -125

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Saturday.  They sit at 5-6 on the season and one win shy of bowl eligibility in Jonathan Smith's first season on the job.  The Spartans will be extra motivated to make a bowl and to get a win for their Seniors on Senior Day.

Rutgers is already bowl eligible at 6-5 on the season and won't be nearly as motivated.  I think it's a tough spot for the Scarlet Knights after blowing a 1-point lead in the final seconds at home in a 38-31 loss to Illinois.  They have played three straight hard-fought games the last three weeks against Illinois, Maryland and Minnesota and I question how much they'll have left in the tank here.

Michigan State has played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers this season.  The Spartans have played the 26th-ranked strength of schedule while the Scarlet Knights have played the 54th.  And Michigan State still has put up better numbers than Rutgers despite the tougher schedule.

The Spartans are dead even in yards per play differential averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.4 per play on defense.  Rutgers is has a -0.7 yards per play differential, averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense but giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  The Spartans are the better team, have the motivational advantage and are at home here.  Bet Michigan State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +3.5

I love the spot for NC State Saturday.  The Wolfpack sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They are clearly fighting to become bowl eligible here down the stretch, and I like their mental state much better than that of North Carolina right now.

The Tar Heels sit at 6-5 this season and already bowl eligible.  Mack Brown has announced he is stepping down following a ugly 41-21 loss at Boston College last week.  The Tar Heels were outgained 480-212 by the Eagles, or by 268 total yards.  It really looked like they just quit, and I don't trust many of their players to show up Saturday with their futures in limbo now.

NC State took Wake Forest, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Duke to the wire in four tough losses here down the stretch.  They also upset Cal on the road as 9-point dogs and blasted Stanford by 31 at home as 9.5-point favorites.  Last time out they only lost 30-29 as 7.5-point dogs at Georgia Tech, which beat Miami.  They actually outgained the Yellow Jackets in that game.

NC State should be the fresher team here after playing Georgia Tech last Thursday. They get an extra two days to prep for this game, and they also had a bye prior to that GT game.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh, more prepared and more focused for a win here.  I think they way they've fought down the stretch will pay off here with an outright win over a UNC team with questionable motivation.  Bet NC State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UAB/Charlotte OVER 60

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to UAB (3-8) and Charlotte (4-7) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 33rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They rank 121st in scoring defense allowing 34.7 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 428.2 total yards per game and 33 points per game in their last five games.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in UAB's last nine games overall with 54 or more combined points in all nine games.

Charlotte is also a team with a terrible defense.  The 49ers rank 124th in scoring defense allowing 35.8 points per game.  I think both offenses will have plenty of success even though these aren't two of the best offenses in the country.  Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 58 or more combined points in five of those six games.  There will be no wind or rain today in Charlotte so the forecast looks great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion/Arkansas State OVER 58.5

There are going to be a lot of possessions in this game between Old Dominion and Arkansas State Saturday because both play fast.  The Monarchs rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds, while the Red Wolves rank 20th snapping it every 24.0 seconds.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Arkansas State ranks 109th allowing 31.5 points per game, 124th allowing 453.6 yards per game and 128th allowing 6.8 yards per play.  Old Dominion ranks 84th allowing 27.6 points per game, 106th allowing 410.5 yards per game and 87th allowing 5.8 yards per play.

This Old Dominion offense has been humming lately and will get whatever it wants against Arkansas State.  The OVER is 3-1 in Monarchas' last four games overall beating Georgia Southern 47-19 for 66 combined points behind 560 total yards, losing 28-20 at Appalachian State for 48 combined points despite gaining 498 yards, losing 35-32 to James Madison for 67 combined points and losing 42-35 to Marshall despite 513 total yards.

Arkansas State has gone OVER the total in three of its last five combining for 72 points with Southern Miss, 65 with Troy and 74 with Louisiana.  They did only combine for 49 points with Monroe, but the Warhawks play at the 2nd-lowest tempo in the country.

I think this game will be played freely with neither team having much to play for.  Old Dominion has been eliminated from bowl contention at 4-7.  Arkansas State has already clinched bowl eligibility at 7-4, but they have already been eliminated from Sun Belt Championship contention.  I like backing OVERS late in the season between two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Middle Tennessee/FIU OVER 51.5

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Middle Tennessee (3-8) and Florida International (3-8) Saturday.

I think we'll see a shootout today with both offenses opening up the entire playbook against two suspect defenses. The forecast looks great for a shootout in Florida with temps in the 70's, only 10 MPH winds and a small chance of precipitation.

Florida International ranks 76th in scoring defense at 25.9 points per game and 73rd allowing 370.4 yards per game.  Middle Tennessee ranks 119th in scoring defense allowing 34.2 points per game, 122nd allowing 447.9 yards per game and 126th allowing 6.6 yards per play.

Middle Tennessee is 8-3 to the OVER 51.5 on the season combining for 54 or more points with its opponents in eight of its 11 games.  FIU is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Florida/Rice OVER 53.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the entire country in tempo and by a wide margin, snapping the ball every 20.5 seconds.  They have an elite offense and a vulnerable defense.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving South Florida right now.

The Bulls have topped this total themselves in their last two games.  They beat Charlotte 59-24 for 83 combined points and racked up 425 rushing yards in the process.  They beat Tulsa 63-30 last week and racked up 715 total yards.  I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas against Rice this week, either.

Rice has a very good quarterback in EJ Warner.  The Owls have really been through a gauntlet of opposing defenses here down the stretch and have gone under the total in four of their last five.  I think that has provided us value to back an OVER in a game involving Rice, which I did last week with success in a 40-14 loss to UAB with a closing total of 51.5.

Rice ranks in the top half of the country in tempo at 64th, so there are going to be a ton of possessions in this game.  Neither team has anything to play for as USF clinched a bowl last week, while Rice sits at 3-8 on the season with an interim head coach.  I love taking OVERS late in the season when nothing is at stake because it tends to favor offense over defense as both teams are loose and playing freely.

South Florida and its opponents have combined for 55 or more points in eight of its last 10 games.  Rice and South Florida combined for 71 points in their meeting last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA +7

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most improved teams in the country from the first half of the season until now.  After a 1-4 start, they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 during this stretch.

The wins have been impressive.  It started with a 38-24 home win over FAU as 4.5-point favorites.  They went on to blow a 28-point lead to Tulsa in their next game losing 46-45 as 9.5-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in at that point, but they have responded as well as possible and that's a reflection of their head coach.

They beat Memphis 44-36 as 7-point home dogs, and that's a 10-2 Memphis team that just beat Tulane. They crushed North Texas 48-27 as 1.5-point home favorites and crushed Temple 51-27 as 17-point favorites.  Their defense is improving, but their offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 45.2 points per game over their last five.

The spot is a terrible one for Army. The Black Knights opened 9-0 this season against one of the softest schedules in the country. They finally stepped up in class last week and got blasted 49-14 at Notre Dame.  That loss eliminated them from 12-team playoff consideration, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

That's especially the case with Army knowing they already have a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane clinched.  They will be looking forward to that game if anything, making this a sandwich spot for the Black Knights.  I don't like their mental state coming into this one.

I also love the matchup for UTSA.  They are terrible against the pass, but that won't matter against Army.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in the country against the run allowing 100.5 rushing yards per game and 11th nationally allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.  They are equipped to stop triple-option teams like Army.  This is a game I fully expect the Roadrunners to win outright, but getting +7 with them is an absolute gift.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

20* Nebraska/Iowa NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska +4

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have a huge weight lifted off their shoulders.  They were previously on a 0-9 run when sitting on five wins looking for their 6th and bowl eligibility the last several seasons.  They got that monkey off their back with a dominant 44-25 win over Wisconsin last week, and now I expect them to be playing loose and freely today against their hated rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Hawkeyes were fortunate Maryland QB Billy Edwards got hurt in the 1st quarter of their 29-13 win at Maryland last week.  It changed the entire game.  That result is making Iowa a bigger favorite than they should be against Nebraska this week.  It's also a Terrapins team that looks to have quit on the season.

Nebraska has a huge advantage over Iowa at quarterback this week.  5-star QB Dillon Raiola is getting comfortable with Dana Holgorsen as his coordinator, and the Huskers racked up 473 total yards on the Badgers last week.  Iowa is down to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He went just 10-of-14 passing for 76 yards against Maryland last week.

Iowa needs to be able to run the football to have success.  I know Matt Rhule will do everything he can to stack the box to try and stop Kaleb Johnson, who had 35 carries against Maryland last week with a long of 13.  If they stop Johnson, I don't think Stratton is good enough to beat them.  

Each of the last six meetings between Nebraska and Iowa have been decided by one score.  And this is the best Huskers team during this stretch that the Hawkeyes will have to deal with this season.  This is not close to the best Iowa team during this stretch.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +6

Utah State has been competitive in five of its last six games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2, crushed Hawaii 55-10 and dominated San Diego State 41-20.  

Those last two games were very impressive.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.  They racked up 488 more yards against San Diego State last week.

While Utah State sits at just 4-7 on the season, I think they'll be treating this as their bowl game.  They could have packed it in a lot sooner if they wanted to, but it just goes to show the character of this team to finish the way they have.

This is a tough spot for Colorado State.  Their dreams of making the Mountain West Championship Game were all but crushed with a 28-22 loss at Fresno State last week.  Now they no longer control their own destiny, instead they'll need to win this game and have UNLV lose at home to Nevada as a near 3-touchdown favorite.  That's not going to happen and they know it.

But Colorado State has been living on borrowed time all season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by nearly 7 yards per game on the season.  Utah State is only getting outgained by roughly 5 yards per game on the season to compare.  These teams are much closer to even than this line would indicate, and getting +6 with the Aggies is tremendous value today.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* Miami Ohio/Bowling Green ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The forecast is a big reason for this play on the UNDER.  Temps will be around 30 with 20-25 MPH winds and gusts as high as 40 MPH.  There's a lot at stake with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line for both teams, so it will be played close to the vest.

Both teams play slow.  Bowling Green ranks 118th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds.  Miami ranks 120th in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds as well.  There will be very few possessions in this game, and both teams are led by their defenses.

One of the best players in the country that not many know about is Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin.  He leads the entire country in receiving with 92 receptions for 1,294 yards and 9 TD.  Fannin is questionable to play Friday and my best guess is he won't be healthy enough to play.  

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 27, 30 and 41 combined points in the last three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis +14

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tulane Green Wave.  Tulane is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It's safe to say this is the peak of the market on the Green Wave now.  They don't have a lot to play for this week as they are already locked into the AAC Championship Game against Army.  They aren't likely to make the 12-team playoff with Boise State controlling its own fate.

The Green Wave have taken advantage of an easy schedule.  Their last three games were cake walks against Navy without QB Blake Horvath, and dead Temple and Charlotte teams.  They beat North Texas by 8 and Rice by 14 in the two games prior.  And the other two wins came against UAB and South Florida.

This is a big step up in class for Tulane having to face Memphis, which also is 9-2 this season.  While the Tigers have been eliminated from AAC Championship contention, then continue to play hard beating Rice 27-20 and UAB 53-18 in their last two games.  Now they want to prove that they can beat the top dogs in Tulane, and I think the Tigers will be as motivated as they've been for any game this season.

I know Memphis' best effort is good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Tulane.  Memphis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 meetings with Tulane with only one loss by more than 14 points.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Memphis Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -7.5

The Baylor 'buy' signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 45.8 points per game and 551 yards per game in their four consecutive wins and covers.

The fact of the matter is Houston cannot keep up with Baylor.  The Bears will get their points.  Houston has been held to 17 points or fewer in six of its 10 games this season.  The Cougars rank 133rd in scoring offense at 14.0 points per game.  That is absolutely atrocious in today's college football.

I think the Cougars hit an all-time low last week losing 27-3 to Arizona.  That was a previously dead Arizona team that couldn't stop anyone.  They had allowed 56 points to UCF in their previous game and held Houston to 3.  Their defense is decimated by injuries.

Houston has been able to hang with teams that play slow, defensive-minded football this season.  They haven't been able to hang with the better offenses they have faced that are more up-tempo like Baylor.  The Bears will test them in a big way as they rank 11th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  The Cougars won't be able to keep up.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Boise State/Wyoming UNDER 57.5

This is strictly a play on the weather.  There is expected to be 20 MPH sustained winds in Laramie Saturday night with gusts up to 40 MPH.  Wind affects scoring more than any other weather element, and these teams are going to be forced to keep the ball on the ground in a defensive battle that keeps the clock moving for four quarters.

Wyoming will be able to stack the box to try and stop RB Ashton Jeanty without worry that Boise State will try to throw it much.  And I have no doubt Boise State is going to be able to stop this hapless Wyoming offense.

The Cowboys rank 119th in scoring offense at 20.4 points per game, 118th in total offense at 326.8 yards per game and 123rd at 4.9 yards per play.  Boise State ranks 13th in the country allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game and 17th at 3.3 per carry.  Wyoming is going to need to score at least 20 points for us to lose this UNDER, and I just don't seem them getting to 20.  

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 39 or fewer combined points in all five meetings.  Boise State and Wyoming have combined for 48 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3

This is going to be a back and forth game with two of the Top 5 offenses in the country in terms of tempo.  But I think the difference is East Carolina will get one or two more stops than North Texas will because their defense is much better.

East Carolina's offense has taken off since switching quarterbacks to Katin Houser.  He has thrown for at least 269 yards in every game with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his last four games.  He led ECU to a 56-35 win over Temple, a 49-14 win over FAU and a 38-31 win at Tulsa.

Now Houser and company get to go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 126th in scoring defense allowing 35.7 points per game and 126th in total defense allowing 458.1 yards per game.  Compare that to ECU, which allows 393.8 yards per game and 27.2 points per game, and it's easy to see that the Pirates have the much better defense in this one.

North Texas allowed 48 points to UTSA, 45 to Tulane and 52 to Memphis in three of its last four games coming in.  I don't think the Mean Green are all that motivated for a 6th win here knowing they can get it against lowly Temple next week to clinch bowl eligibility.  ECU has been rolling since making a coaching chance and the Pirates have all the momentum now.  The wrong team is favored in this game today.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -4

The Utah State Aggies (3-7) and San Diego Aztecs (3-7) are both eliminated from bowl contention.  But these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I trust Utah State to show up a lot more than I do San Diego State.  Plus, this is Senior Day for the Aggies, so they will want to send their seniors out winners.

Utah State has been competitive in four of its last five games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2 and then crushed Hawaii 55-10 last week.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.

San Diego State has really been dominated in the box score in three straight games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State while getting outgained 541 to 256 by the Broncos.  They only lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico, but that was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Lobos outgained them 475 to 341 but left a lot of points on the board.  And last week they lost 41-20 at UNLV while getting outgained 515 to 270 by the Rebels.

So San Diego State is allowing 510.3 yards per game and only averaging 289 yards per game on offense in their last three games.  They are getting outgained by 221.3 yards per game during this stretch.  I don't see it going any better for the Aztecs against this high-octane Utah State offense that finally showed they could play a little defense against Hawaii last week.  

The Aggies rank 8th in total offense at 463.9 yards per game and 32nd at 6.4 yards per play.  Compare that to the Aztecs, who rank 120th in total offense at 324.7 yards per game and 20th at 4.9 yards per play, and it's easy to see that the Aztecs can't keep up with them in this one.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Tulsa/USF AAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Both Tulsa and South Florida are dead nut OVER teams and this should be a shootout Saturday afternoon.  South Florida ranks 1st in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  Tulsa ranks 22nd in tempo snapping it ever 24.1 seconds, so this game is going to see a ton of plays and a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.

South Florida just ran it down Charlotte's throat last week rushing for 425 yards in a 59-24 victory and 83 combined points.  They are going to be able to do the same against a Tulsa defense that ranks 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 127th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  Tulsa allowed 52 points to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA, 59 to UAB and 38 to ECU in five of its last six games, going 5-1 OVER in those six games.

Tulsa should find plenty of success on offense to help us get this OVER 60.5 home.  The Bulls rank 119th in total defense allowing 421.1 yards per game.  They are particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.9 yards per game which ranks 126th in the country.  Tulsa QB Cooper Legas is a good dual-threat who threw for 293 yards and 3 TD against a pretty good ECU defense last week.  He also rushed for 43 yards on 13 carries in leading the Golden Hurricane to 31 points.

Tulsa and South Florida combined for 90 points in their last meeting.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Kansas FOX No-Brainer on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 4-6 teams in the history of college football. Kansas is 1-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.  And last week they handed BYU their first loss in a 17-13 road win as 3-point dogs.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was the 45 points and 532 total yards they put up against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

Now the Jayhawks have their sights set on knocking Colorado off from the top of the Big 12 ranks.  Like BYU, Colorado has benefited from close wins and a soft schedule. The Buffaloes have managed to not have to face the top three teams in the Big 12 outside themselves.  They needed a hail mary to beat Baylor, and they lost by 3 at home to Kansas State, which is arguably the best Big 12 team they have faced this season.

Kansas can get whatever it wants against this Colorado defense.  And the Jayhawks have two of the top CB's in the Big 12 to match up with Travis Hunter and these Colorado receivers.  I like the matchup for the Jayhawks, who will have a big home-field advantage after outscoring Iowa State and Houston a combined 87-50 in their last two home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on ECU/North Texas OVER 73

Both East Carolina and North Texas are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have elite offenses, play fast, and play little to no defense.  North Texas ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  East Carolina ranks 5th at 21.8 seconds between snaps.  You would be hard-pressed to find another game this season that is going to see more plays and possessions than this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in East Carolina's last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in all five.  Their offense is really humming right now putting up 56 against Temple, 49 against Florida Atlantic and 38 against Tulsa the last three weeks.  They have allowed at least 31 points in four of their last five games, and the only game they didn't was because FAU lost its starting QB early.

North Texas is 8-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Mean Green have gone for at least 67 combined points in seven of their 10 games this season.  They have allowed 45, 52 and 48 points in three of their last four games, and I suspect East Carolina will get into the 40's in this one.  The Mean Green rank 126th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 126th in scoring at 35.7 points per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 12 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday in Denton, TX.  This will be one of the most entertaining games of the season with these teams matching each other score for score for 60 minutes in a fast-paced game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* BYU/Arizona State ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona State -3

I faded BYU with success with Kansas +3 last week.  I'm fading the Cougars again this week as I still believe they are overvalued due to their fraudulent 9-1 record.  BYU is 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  

They have been fortunate in close games all season, including a 1-point win over a bad Utah team and a 3-point win over a bad Oklahoma State team.  They finally had their luck run out last week, coming up a yard short in the red zone at the end of the game in a 17-13 loss to Kansas.  I think that's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

While BYU just had the wind taken out of their sails, Arizona State has all the momentum right now.  The Sun Devils have won three straight following their bye week with a 21-point win at Oklahoma State and a 4-point home win over UCF without star RB Cam Skattebo.

But Skattebo returned from injury last week to help lead the 24-14 upset at Kansas State.  The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  Skattebo had 117 yards from scrimmage and averages 152 scrimmage yards per game this season.  While Skattebo gets all the credit for this team, it's QB Sam Leavitt who has made the biggest leap here down the stretch and his playing his best football of the season.  

Leavitt has a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  He is the reason the Sun Devils control their own destiny now in getting to the Big 12 Championship.  This team is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after being picked to finish last by the media in the offseason.  That chip will remain squarely on their shoulder this week.

Arizona State wants to run Skattebo to set up the play-action for Leavitt.  They average 190.5 rushing yards per game.  BYU's weakness is stopping the run.  The Cougars allow 139.2 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, which ranks 75th in the country.  BYU is balanced but leans on the pass more, and ASU is good in both departments.  They allow just 3.8 yards per rush attempt which ranks 47th and 6.3 yards per pass attempt which ranks 31st.

I think Arizona State has the better defense and their home-field advantage will be huge in this one as it should be one of the best atmospheres for a game in Tempe in years with what's at stake.  It's worth more than what is being factored into this line.  The Sun Devils should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Rice/UAB OVER 51

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Rice (3-7) traveling to UAB (2-8) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 23rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds.  They rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 444.3 total yards per game and 31.3 points per game in their last four games.  This total of 51 is very low for a game involving UAB right now.

The only reason this total is so low is because Rice has been an under team this season going 7-3 to the under.  But they haven't had QB EJ Warner healthy for part of the season, and he is healthy now and thriving.  Warner threw for 246 yards and 2 TD against Memphis and 239 yards and a TD against Navy in his last two games coming in.  He will have one of his best games of the season against UAB, similar to when he threw for 347 yards and 2 TD against UTSA, which is a team that profiles similar to UAB with no defense and up-tempo.

UAB and its opponents have combined for at least 54 points in eight consecutive games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 51-point total.  The forecast looks great for a shootout this afternoon with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss/Florida OVER 55

The Ole Miss Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They need style points to make the 12-team playoff and will be looking to run up the score against Florida.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss is elite offensively this season ranking 4th in scoring offense at 40.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 538.3 yards per game and 2nd at 7.6 yards per play.  They play at the 9th-fastest tempo in the country and don't let their opponents breath.  That was on display in their last road game when they suffocated Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points.  That's the same Arkansas defense that held Texas to 20 points and Tennessee to 14 at home.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.

Lagway has one of the best deep balls in the country and he is averaging 18.8 yards per completion this season.  I think he will have enough success with some deep balls to get Florida on the board quickly a few times in this game.  It likely won't be enough to hang with Ole Miss, but it will be enough to help us cash this OVER 55 ticket.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds without any threat of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10

I normally wouldn't want to back a team like Ole Miss off an upset win over Georgia.  But the Rebels cannot afford a letdown if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They have no margin for error and cannot afford a loss.  In fact, they would do themselves some by running up the score in their final two games to assure they make it.

The Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss has the numbers of the best team in the country, which shouldn't make it all that surprising they beat Georgia 28-10.  Their 'A' game is as good as any in the country.  They lead the nation in yards per play differential, averaging 7.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 3.2 yards per play.  So basically every time the ball is snapped they gain 3.2 yards of field position.  That is as elite as it gets.

I have backed Florida several times this season and I like this team more than most who left them for dead early in the season.  The Gators continue to fight for Billy Napier and I think the program made the right move in extending him.  He was dealt a tough hand with the toughest schedule in the country and has made the most of it, getting Florida over their 4.5-win total at 5-5 this season.  They want to get to a bowl, but they have Florida State on deck next week to accomplish that goal.  It's not going to happen this week.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on offense and defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  That was a bit of a misleading final with LSU outgaining Florida by 53 yards.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.  I don't think Lagway and company can keep up in a shootout either because the Rebels are going to get their points.  

Lane Kiffin is 15-2 SU & 12-4-1 ATS since 2019 as a road favorite.  He is 8-1 ATS in his last nine games as a road favorite of -4 or higher with the only non-cover coming as 10.5-point favorites in a 10-point win at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  Double-digit dogs off a conference win like Florida are on a 48-87 ATS run.  Florida has lost 14 consecutive games SU as a double-digit dog dating back to 2016.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +6.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes had some life offensively when Brandon Sullivan took over at QB.  He was a dual-threat and added a dimension the Hawkeyes didn't have before, and it worked in blowout wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern.

But Sullivan got hurt in their 20-17 loss to UCLA.  Former starter Cade McNamara is done at Iowa, and now it's up to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He took over late for Sullivan in the loss to UCLA and went 3-of-6 for 28 yards.  This will be the first start of his career on the road in the Big Ten, and I don't expect it to go well for him.

Maryland will be motivated sitting at 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility.  They host Nebraska next week, so these next two games are very winnable.  They are in this position because they lost 31-17 to Rutgers last week.  But that misleading final is the reason we are getting more points with the Terrapins than we should be today.

Maryland goes from being a 4-point home favorite over Rutgers to a 6.5-point underdog to Iowa.  That's a 10.5-point adjustment.  I power rate Rutgers and Iowa very similarly.  Maryland outgained Rutgers 457 to 360 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards, which is why I say it was a misleading final.

I like the matchup for the Terrapins, too.  Iowa needs to run the football to be effective because they have the 127th-ranking passing attack in the country, and it's going to be even worse with Stratton.  The Terrapins rank 29th in allowing just 115.4 rushing yards per game and 30th at 3.6 per carry.  They are great along the front seven and weak in the secondary, which is something Iowa will not be able to exploit.

Heavy passing teams have had success throwing the ball against Iowa.  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa State all had a lot of success throwing the ball on Iowa's defense.  The Terrapins are getting great production from their pasisng game this season.  QB Billy Edwards is completing 65% of his passes for 2,855 yards with a 15-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He gets to throw to two of the most underrated receivers in the country in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 138 receptions, 1,629 yards and 10 TD this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Indiana/Ohio State FOX No-Brainer on Indiana +13.5

What more does Indiana have to do to get some respect? The Hoosiers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS this season with nine of their 10 wins coming by 14 points or more.  They led Michigan 17-3 at halftime and it turned into a 5-point game as they took their foot off the gas in the 2H going into their bye week and looking ahead to this game against Ohio State, which is understandable.

I think that effort is the only reason the Hoosiers are double-digit dogs here to Ohio State.  I think the Hoosiers can get back to playing with a chip on their shoulder because nobody is giving them a chance Saturday, talking about their strength of schedule.  Head coach Curt Cignetti is saying all the right things and even stated that they have been in control in every game this season, which is true.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 2nd in scoring offense at 43.9 points per game and 7th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They rank 9th averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and 2nd allowing 4.2 yards per play on defense.  Their 2.7 net yards per play differential is one of the best marks in the country.

Ohio State needed a late comeback to beat Nebraska 21-17 at home as 25-point favorites.  That's the same Nebraska team Indiana blasted 56-7 as 6.5-point home favorites.  No question the Buckeyes are one of the best teams in the country, but they have some problems along the offensive line that I think Indiana can exploit.

Ohio State just lost starting C Seth McClaughlin to a season-ending Achilles injury in practice this week.  Injuries at the center position are worth more than what is being factored into the line.  He makes all the calls up front, and the Buckeyes don't have much time to prepare to play without him.  They were already without starting LT Josh Simmons, so they are now missing two starters up front.

The Buckeyes need to be able to run the ball to be effective because Will Howard is shaky at times in the passing game.  I don't see them having much success on the ground with these O-Line injuries, plus the fact that Indiana ranks 1st in the country allowing just 72.2 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per rush.  The Hoosiers are also off a bye week so they have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Buckeyes, a fact that also isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Purdue/Michigan State FOX No-Brainer on Michigan State -13.5

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Friday night.  They sit at 4-6 on the season and highly motivated for a win to get within one win of bowl eligibility with another winnable home game against Rutgers on deck next week.  It will be a great atmosphere Friday night as fans are excited about head coach Jonathan Smith and the direction of this team.

Michigan State is coming off a misleading 38-16 road loss at Illinois last week, which is why this line is below 14 and providing us value.  Illinois only outgained Michigan State by 26 yards.  It was a 6-point game entering the 4th quarter.

After going through a gauntlet of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Oregon and Ohio State in their last six games coming in, the Spartans will be looking forward to a big step down in class against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  They will take out their frustration and win this game going away.

Purdue is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses came by 17 points or more, and you can chalk up another blowout loss for the Boilermakers tonight.  After losing in OT to Northwestern coming out of their bye at home, they have simply quit the last two weeks losing 45-0 to Ohio State and 49-10 to Penn State.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank on this short week, and they are just ready for the season to be over at this point.

Michigan State had a bye prior to Illinois and should still be fresh, which is an advantage on this short week.  The Spartans are 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Boilermakers, and they haven't gotten to face a Purdue team that has been this bad during this stretch.  They'll take advantage of this opportunity and win going away tonight.  Bet Michigan State Friday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo/Eastern Michigan OVER 53

Both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan like to play fast, no-huddle offenses which is going to give us extra possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  Buffalo ranks 21st in tempo snapping the ball every 24 seconds while Eastern Michigan ranks 27th snapping it ever 24.2 seconds.  These are two of the worst defenses int the MAC to boot.

Many bettors took the under in this game due to weather concerns, but I don't think it looks that bad.  Temps will be in the 40's with 15 MPH winds and there shouldn't be much precipitation by the time the game starts.  I think both offenses will have a lot more success than most are thinking due to the weather.

Buffalo is a dead nuts OVER team especially of late.  The Bulls have gone 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 99, 71, 63 and 89 combined points in there last four games.  This 53-point total is very low for a game involving the Bulls with the way they are trending right now.

Eastern Michigan is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of those six games.  If this game is played more on the ground, neither team can stop the run.  Buffalo ranks 77th allowing 4.3 per carry while Eastern Michigan is even worse ranking 95th allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  Both teams are pretty balanced offensively.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 54 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* San Diego State/UNLV MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The OVER is 4-2 since UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams took over six games ago.  It was a blessing in disguise that their starting QB decided to opt out and hit the portal.  Their offense has taken off ever since.  Williams is completing 64% of his passes for 1,192 yards and a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 617 yards and 6 TD on 6.2 per carry.  He has been absolutely dynamic both as a passer and a runner.

The Rebels have averaged 39.3 points per game in their last six games with Williams running the show.  That includes 41.3 points per game in their three home games against Boise State, Syracuse and Fresno State.  With the Rebels still feeling like they have a chance to make the 12-team playoff, their feel like they need style points and won't be afraid to run it up.  I think they can top 40 points on San Diego State in this one.

The Aztecs rank 88th in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 102nd in total defense at 405.4 yards per game.  They played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses all season until recently, when they allowed 56 points and 541 total yards at Boise State two games ago.

San Diego State ranks 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds.  UNLV ranks 60th in tempo.  This game will see a lot of possessions which means more chances for points.  And I think this total is being set too low tonight due to San Diego State's performance in their last game.

San Diego State lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico last game with a total of 65 set for that game.  New Mexico had 475 total yards and should have scored more.  But both teams kept bogging down in the red zone and San Diego State kicked FG's of 22, 28 and 31 yards.  It was also some of the worst field conditions I've seen in all of college football this season.  Players were slipping everywhere, and it's a reminder not to play overs in SDSU home games moving forward.

This game will be played on a fast track in the dome inside Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  The last five UNLV games played inside Allegiant Stadium have averaged 76.4 combined points.  UNLV is capable of covering this total on their own, but I expect San Diego State to get in the 20's to help.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kansas/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 3-6 teams in the history of college football.  BYU is one of the worst 9-0 teams in the history of college football.  There's a reason this line is only 3 with those records, and I fully expect the Jayhawks to win this game outright.

Kansas is 0-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was last week when they put up 45 points and 532 total yards against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

BYU has a worse defense than all three of those teams, so I fully expect the Jayhawks to hang a big number on them.  And while the Jayhawks have been very unlucky in close games, the Cougars are winning all of theirs.  BYU is 4-0 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.

The Cougars are coming off a massive 22-21 win at the buzzer at Utah in the Holy War last week.  They got bailed out by the refs on their final drive on a 4th-and-10 sack that turned into a phantom holding penalty on Utah.  BYU took advantage and drove the length of the field, setting up the game-winning 44-yard field goal.

Now BYU has a 2-game lead over 3rd place in the Big 12, which means they can afford a loss and still make the Big 12 Championship Game.  I think having that in the back of their minds and feeling 'fat and happy' off a win over their big brothers last week sets them up for a prime letdown spot this week.  Couple that with all the pressure of trying to make the 12-team playoff and there is a lot this team is dealing with emotionally.

Kansas is in a great state of mind knowing it needs to run the table to make a bowl game.  The Jayhawks are 'all in' and out to prove they are much better than their record would indicate.  They started last week by upsetting Iowa State, and now they are licking their chops at the opportunity to knock BYU from the unbeaten ranks.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* Oregon/Wisconsin NBC ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +14

The Wisconsin Badgers have a huge rest advantage over Oregon that I don't think is being factored into this line enough.  That's one of the main reasons why I'm willing to back the Badgers catching two touchdowns at home in what will be a great, hostile atmosphere with the No. 1 team in the country coming to Madison for a 7:30 EST kick.

Wisconsin had a bye last week to regroup.  The Badgers had played six consecutive weeks and needed the bye.  In their 5th game they gave Penn State all they could handle at home in a 14-13 game in the 4th quarter that included a 19-yard INT return by Penn State in a game the Badgers should have been leading.  It snowballed from there as Penn State outscored them 14-0 in the 4th in a 28-13 final.

I think the Badgers let that loss beat them twice the next week when they went into Iowa City and lost 42-10 in a night game at Kinnick Stadium.  But that result is providing us extra line value on Wisconsin this week.  The Badgers have had two weeks to get healthy and focused on stopping Oregon.  I think we see one of their best efforts of the season Saturday night, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated number.

With the No. 1 ranked in the country comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are hard to live up to.  I took Maryland +25 as my 25* Big Ten Game of the Year at Oregon last week largely due to that reason.  Like Wisconsin, Maryland was coming off a bye and gave an 'all in' effort.  This was an 11-point game in the 4th quarter before Oregon tacked on a FG and a TD after a Maryland turnover in the final six minutes to turn it into a 39-18 misleading final.  Oregon only outgained Maryland by 74 yards.

I also faded Oregon last week because they were a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week and coming off a hard-fought win at Michigan.  Now they will be playing for an 8th consecutive week!.  There has been a ton of travel involved especially of late as they have alternated home/road games.  They played Ohio State at home, then Purdue on the road, Illinois at home, then Michigan on the road, Maryland at home and now they have to fly back to the midwest to face Wisconsin.

Because of this tough travel schedule, the Ducks may be the single-most tired team in the country.  They also can afford a loss and still make the Big Ten Championship Game, so they aren't exactly 'all in' right now.  They would be able to beat Washington at home and still make the title game in their regular season finale, so knowing they have that to fall back on might not have them quite as motivated for this game.  I love the situation favoring the Badgers this week.  

Oregon also has two key playmakers on offense questionable to play in this game.  RB Jordan James (946 yards, 10 TD, 5.7/carry) only got one carry in the 2H against Maryland, and WR Tez Johnson (64 receptions, 649 yards, 8 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  He missed the Maryland game and may not be back in time for this one.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +14

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Ken Niomatalolo is doing great things here for the Spartans in his first season on the job.  The Spartans are 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS this season with their losses coming by 2 to Washington State, which is 8-1 this season and by 7 to Colorado State, which is expected to make the Mountain West Championship.

They also had a misleading 33-10 loss to Fresno State two games ago that has them undervalued still.  They were only outgained by 16 yards by Fresno State.  They had a bye week after that loss, and they responded with a 24-13 win at Oregon State as 3-point underdogs last week.  Now they have their sights set on upsetting Boise State at home this week.

This San Jose State offense is legit.  They average 6.5 yards per play which ranks 27th in the country.  Their passing offense ranks 5th at 332.3 yards per game, and Boise State can be thrown on.  They have one of the best receivers in the country in Nick Nash, who has 86 receptions for 1,156 yards and 13 TD.

Boise State is starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the 12-team playoff.  The Broncos were fortunate to escape with a 28-21 home win over Nevada as 22.5-point favorites last week.  San Jose State is better than Nevada, so getting 14 points with them at home here is a nice value.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  To be able to compete with Boise State you have to be able to stop Ashton Jeanty and their rushing attack.  Well, San Jose State ranks 36th in the country allowing just 3.7 yards per carry.

San Jose State is a pass-heavy offense and the weakness of Boise State is their pass defense.  The Broncos rank 110th in the country allowing 247.1 passing yards per game and 104th allowing 7.8 yards per attempt.  The Spartans will never be out of this game with their ability to move the football through the air.  

The Broncos haven't been that impressive on the road this season.  They were in dog fights with UNLV and Georgia Southern and their lone road win by more than 11 points came by 21 at Hawaii, which was a 6-point game in the 4th quarter and a misleading final.  The Spartans are live underdogs this week.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on South Alabama/Louisiana OVER 58

Louisiana is quietly sitting at 8-1 this season with their lone loss to Tulane by 8.  The Rajin' Cajuns still feel like they are alive for the 12-team playoff, and they think they need style points from here on out.  They will look to run up the score if they can, which is a big reason why I am backing the OVER 58 in this game Saturday night against South Alabama.

Louisiana is riding an offense that ranks 25th in the country in scoring at 35.2 points per game, 12th in total offense at 457.1 yards per game and 5th at 7.0 yards per play.  They ran it up last week on Arkansas State in a 55-19 blowout that saw 74 combined points.  They have gone for at least 58 combined points in five of their last seven games now.

The Rajin' Cajuns should be able to name their number against a South Alabama defense that ranks 97th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game and 95th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  The Jaguars are coming off a pair of shootouts in a 34-30 loss to Georgia Southern and 64 combined points and a 46-17 win over ULM and 63 combined points.

This South Alabama offense has been humming when QB Gio Lopez has been healthy.  Lopez is one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 65.4% of his passes for 1,891 yards with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 393 yards and 4 scores with 6.3 per carry.  He leads a South Alabama offene that ranks 21st in scoring at 35.6 points per game, 11th in total offense at 456.9 yards per game and 14th at 6.8 yards per play.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  I can see these teams trading scores with this being one of the most entertaining games of the weekend featuring two of the best offenses in the country that not too many people know about.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri/South Carolina UNDER 44.5

Missouri's offense has hit the skids without QB Brady Cook.  They have one of the worst backup QB situations in the country with Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne now starting in his place.  Let's just look at how poor this Missouri offense has been the last three weeks since Cook got injury against Auburn.

Missouri needed a 17-6 comeback in the 4th quarter to beat Auburn 21-17 for 38 combined points.  The Tigers were then shut out 34-0 at Alabama for 34 combined points.  And last week they managed to beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a game that was sitting at 10-9 entering the 4th quarter before all hell broke loose.

Oklahoma got a defensive TD with 2:00 left, Missouri scored a TD with 1:03 left, and Missouri scored the game-winning defensive TD on a 17-yard fumble recovery with 30 seconds left.  That misleading final is adding to the line value this week to back the UNDER.  Missouri only had 278 total yard and Oklahoma only had 257 total yards in that game.

Now Pyne and this hobbled Missouri offense must face a South Carolina defense playing about as well as any defense in the country this season.  The Gamecocks rank 12th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, 13th in total defense at 299.9 yards per game and 7th at 4.5 yards per play.  They stymied Diego Pavia which nobody else has been able to do this season.  They won that game 28-7 over Vanderbilt for 35 combined points.

South Carolina's offense leaves a lot to be desired, and Missouri can rely on its defense to at least be competitive for a while.  The Tigers rank 15th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and 11th in total defense at 294.9 yards per game.  I expect Missouri to try and slow this game to a crawl by snapping the ball as late as they can in the play clock because shortening the game is about the only chance they have to win it with Pyne at QB.  Pyne is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 82 pass attempts this season.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as these teams always seem to play in low-scoring games.  Given Missouri's circumstances offensively right now, I think that trend continues in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -2.5

The Baylor buy signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 44.7 points per game and 564 yards per game in their three consecutive wins and covers.

Now Baylor is off a bye week and will come back with another big effort against West Virginia this week.  And while I'm high on Baylor right now, I'm equally low on West Virginia. I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on the Mountaineers.  

They are coming off two consecutive upset wins over Arizona and Cincinnati, which are two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in my opinion.  They beat Arizona by 5, which isn't impressive when you consider Arizona has lost five consecutive games now and is decimated by injuries.  The Wildcats' other three losses in their last four games came by 22 points or more.

West Virginia beat Cincinnati 31-24 on the road last week, but that was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  West Virginia had two defensive touchdowns and their offense only scored 17 points with 248 total yards.  Their defense gave up 436 yards to Cincinnati, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

Injuries are piling up for the Mountaineers with QB Garrett Greene questionable with a concussion, and their 2nd-leading receiver likely to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Even if they had both guys healthy I'd still like Baylor in this spot, so getting -2.5 is a discount.  If Greene is ruled out this line will balloon in Baylor's favor.

The Bears will be revenge-minded too after losing by exactly 3 points to West Virginia in each of their last two meetings.  The Bears are the better, healthier team this season and they are rested and ready to go off a bye.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* Louisville/Stanford ACC No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

Louisville is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in all games this season with 50 or more combined points in all nine games, including 58 or more combined points five times.  They have scored at least 24 points in every game this season despite the brutal schedule and rank 21st in scoring offense at 36.2 points per game, 18th in total offense at 449.6 yards per game and 9th at 6.9 yards per play.

The Cardinals will be able to name their number against a Stanford defense that ranks 122nd in scoring at 34.6 points per game, 110th at 412.9 yards per game and 122nd at 6.5 yards per play.  With Louisville ranked 19th in the playoff rankings this week, they still feel like they have a chance to make it.  They will feel like they need style points and won't take their foot off the gas.  It also makes me lean to Louisville -20.5, but I think the OVER is a better way to play it.

Stanford is coming off a 59-28 shootout loss at NC State.  They allowed 547 total yards to the Wolfpack.  They have now allowed at least 31 points in six of their nine games this season.  They gave up 40 to SMU, 49 to Notre Dame and 40 to Clemson.  I think Louisville tops 40 points in this one.

Now it's a question of whether or not Stanford can keep up, and I think they can.  They can at least get 20-plus in this one.  Louisville's defense has allowed at least 19 points in seven consecutive games now.  It's a very mediocre defense by Jeff Brahm standards.  And both teams rank in the top half of the country in tempo.

Stanford's offense has been much better with QB Ashton Daniels healthy, which he is right now.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes this season and is a dual-threat, rushing for 481 yards and a pair of scores while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Mobile QB's have posed a problem for Louisville's defense this season with five different quarterbacks rushing for at least 50 yards, and two topping 100 yards on the ground.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawaii/Utah State OVER 60

Utah State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Aggies rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds and they have the worst defense in all of college football.  That combination has led them to going 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 59 or more combined points in six of those seven games, and 74 or more in five of them.  The two opponents they faced that didn't see 74 combined points were Wyoming and Utah, who have atrocious offenses.

Utah State ranks 133rd in scoring defense at 42.3 points per game, 132nd in total defense at 496.2 yards per game and 130th at 6.8 yards per play.  Hawaii has played a tough schedule of opposing defenses and will be happy to get a reprieve here.  The Warriors should have their best offensive performance of the season Saturday.

Hawaii went toe-to-toe with a very good UNLV offense last week in windy conditions at home and lost 29-27.  They have a gutsy QB in Brayden Schager, who is quietly having one of the best seasons of any MWC quarterback.  He has thrown for 2,467 yards with a 19-to-10 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 268 yards and 6 scores on the ground.  He is in line for his best game of the season against Utah State.

Hawaii also likes to play pretty fast ranking 45th in tempo at 25.2 seconds between snaps.  This total of 60 is actually pretty low for a game involving Utah State when you consider the Aggies have played four of their last five games with totals of 67 or higher.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 75, 82 and 73 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Syracuse/California OVER 56

Syracuse is a dead nuts OVER team led by an offense that ranks 39th in scoring at 31.7 points per game and 25th in total offense at 442.8 yards per game.  The Orange rank 4th the country in passing at 353.8 yards per game and they are the most pass-heavy offense in the country ranking 1st at 48.3 attempts per game.  I like pass-heavy offenses for OVERS because incompletions stop the clock.

This Syracuse defense has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks.  The Orange allowed 41 points to UNLV, 41 to Pittsburgh, 31 to a Virginia Tech team playing with a backup QB, and 37 to a Boston College team that played with two QB's in four of their last five games.  They have been forced to try and keep up in shootouts in all of those games because their defense has been so poor.

It won't get any easier this week against a Cal offense that has found its stride.  The Golden Bears hung 44 points and 478 total yards on Oregon State two games ago and then 46 points and 500 total yards on Wake Forest last week.  That was an absolute shootout as they gave up 36 points to the Demon Deacons for 82 combined points.  Keep in mind they were in a 39-38 shootout with Miami earlier this season for 77 combined points as well.

Both teams play faster than average as California ranks 43rd in tempo while Syracuse ranks 48th, so there will be more possessions than average in this game.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on FIU/Jacksonville State OVER 58.5

Jacksonville State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Gamecocks rank 7th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.8 seconds in Rich Rodriquez's up-tempo read-option scheme.  The OVER is 6-3 in all Jacksonville State games this season with 62 or more combined points in six of them.

This Jacksonville State offense is humming right now.  The Gamecocks rank 8th in the country in scoring offense at 39.2 points per game.  They have scored at least 42 points in five of their last six games overall.  This Jacksonville State defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 100th in scoring defense at 29.2 points per game and 102nd in total defense at 407.7 yards per game.

Jacksonville State played in a 44-37 (OT) shootout with LA Tech last week that saw 74 combined points at the end of regulation.  That's a very bad LA Tech offense they just allowed 37 points and 410 total yards to last week.  I think Florida International can find similar success against this Gamecocks defense.

I was impressed with this FIU offense in putting up 34 points against New Mexico State two weeks ago.  They also put up 438 total yards and have had a bye to put in some new wrinkles on offense.  QB Keyonte Jenkins threw for 338 yards and 4 TD in the win, and he has an absolute stud outside in Eric Rivers, who caught 11 balls for 295 yards and three scores in the win.  He now has 43 receptions for 876 yards and 8 TD on the season.  Jenkins is completing 61.5% of his passes with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

Florida International has faced a very weak schedule of opposing offenses this season and hasn't faced an offense as good as Jacksonville State since giving up 31 to Indiana in the season opener.  They also gave up 38 to FIU, 45 to Monmouth, 31 to Liberty and 30 to UTEP.  I expect Jacksonville State to get into the 40's and FIU to get at least 28 in this one.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Houston/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5

First-year head coach Willie Fritz has the Houston Cougars playing their best football of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with three outright upsets over TCU 30-19 as 16-point road dogs, Utah 17-14 as 5-point home dogs and Kansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs.

The Cougars got a much-needed bye last week.  First-year head coaches benefit the most from bye weeks, and Fritz will have his team ready to pursue a bowl game coming out of the bye.  The Cougars sit at 4-5 on the season needing two more wins to get bowl eligible, so they will be looking at this line a must-win.

Houston has one of the best defenses in the country.  They rank 43rd in scoring defense at 22.0 points per game and 25th in total defense at 318.9 yards per game despite playing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  They are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in games started and finished by QB Zeon Chriss as he led the upsets of TCU, Utah and K-State.  Chriss gives them a dual-threat rushing for 294 yards and 2 TD.  He is also completing 69.1% of his passes with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

While the Cougars are on the rise under Fritz, the Arizona Wildcats are falling flat on their faces under first-year head coach Brent Brennan.  QB Noah Fifita is struggling mightily in the new system.  He has a 13-to-10 TD/INT ratio and fumble problems as well.  He is playing in front of a banged-up offensive line to boot.

But the biggest problem for the Wildcats is defense, where they have been without eight of 11 starters at different points of the season and most are season-ending injuries.  Arizona ranks 108th in scoring defense at 31.1 points per game, 94th in total defense at 393 yards per game and 98th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.

Arizona is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  It started with a 28-22 home loss to Texas Tech as 5.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats followed it up with a 41-19 loss at BYU as 2.5-point dogs.  They were then blasted 34-7 as 2.5-point home favorites to Colorado.  They lost 31-26 as 5.5-point home favorites against a West Virginia team playing a backup QB two games ago.

But perhaps the most alarming result was the 56-12 loss at UCF as 6-point dogs last time out.  They were playing a UCF team starting a 3rd-string QB and still allowed 56 points and 602 total yards.  That effort just goes to show how rough a shape this defense is in right now.  UCF rushed for 308 yards and passes for 294 more.  

Houston wants to run the football and will be able to do so against this Arizona defense.  This will be one of the softest defenses the Cougars have gotten to face all season, and they were in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the year as a result.  I trust the Cougars to get the necessary stops as this Houston defense will be the best Arizona has seen since being held to a combined 30 points in two games against K-State and Utah.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* UCLA/Washington FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +3.5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye three weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon, Minnesota and Iowa at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed two weeks ago and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.  Then last week they upset Iowa 20-17 as 6.5-point dogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bruins outgained the Hawkeyes 414 to 265, or by 149 total yards.  But they threw two INT inside the Iowa 5-yard line to keep them in it.

Keep in mind that's the same Iowa team that Washington lost 40-16 to on the road.  That was the start of the downward spiral for the Huskies, who are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They also lost 31-17 at Indiana and their backup QB, and lost 35-6 at Penn State as 13-point dogs.  Even their lone win during this stretch was fluky beating USC 26-21 at home despite getting outgained 459 to 375 by the Trojans.

UCLA played last Friday and had a bye three weeks ago and has the rest advantage here because of it.  Washington has to travel all the way back home from Penn State on the East Coast after getting blasted 35-6 by the Nittany Lions on Saturday.  This was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as Penn State outgained Washington 486 to 193, or by nearly 300 total yards.  Keep in mind UCLA only lost 27-11 at Penn State while only getting outgained 322 to 260, or by 62 total yards.

Washington didn't get home until 5 AM Sunday morning.  The Huskies will still be fatigued and won't have much time to prepare for UCLA on this short week.  The Bruins sit at 4-5 and motivated to get to a bowl game, so they won't have a letdown here.  I think UCLA is the better team at this point, so getting 3.5 points with them even factoring in home-field advantage for Washington is too much.  This line should be closer to PK or the Bruins favored.  Bet UCLA Friday.

20* Wyoming/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Wyoming +10

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wyoming Cowboys.  They are just 2-7 SU this season, but they have a first-year head coach and will keep fighting.  They proved that last time out in a 49-45 win at 9-point road underdogs at New Mexico.  They have since had a bye week and bye weeks are most beneficial for first-year head coaches.

QB Kaden Anderson made his first career start at QB against New Mexico, and star RB Harrison Waylee saw his first action of the season in that win over New Mexico.  Anderson finished 20-of-29 passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, while Waylee gained 170 rushing yards on 27 carries.  Jaylen Sargent had 186 receiving yards and a score.

Having Anderson at QB and Waylee back at RB isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Cowboys are a completely different team right now than they were up to this point.  They have also quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their three SU losses coming by 10, 2 and 3 points during this stretch, and the betting public still wants nothing to do with this team due to their poor SU record.

We'll 'sell high' on the Colorado State Rams.  The Rams have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and are starting to get a lot of respect here as a double-digit favorite.  They have several misleading finals here recently that are providing us with some line value to bet against them.

Two games ago they beat New Mexico 17-6 despite allowing 453 total yards to the Lobos and getting outgained by 119 yards.  That was a minor miracle.  Last time out they beat Nevada 38-21 despite allowing 441 total yards and getting outgained by 114 yards.  They are getting away with murder with these wins and these box scores, and I think it comes to an end this week.

Colorado State will feel the pressure of knowing that if they win out they are in the MWC Championship Game.  They also had a bye last week, which I don't think is good for the Rams, who had a ton of momentum and didn't need a bye.  I don't think it will have been a productive bye week for them as they are feeling 'fat and happy' for two weeks.

Colorado State is averaging 365.1 yards per game on offense and allowing 408.2 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by 43.1 yards per game.  This just isn't a very good Rams team, and the Cowboys are live underdogs tonight.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

25* AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on ECU/Tulsa O 61

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play with.  The Pirates rank 5th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  The OVER is 4-0 in ECU's last four games overall with 79, 73, 90 and 63 combined points.  

The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference.  After throwing for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple two games ago, he came back 343 yards and 5 TD against Florida Atlantic last week.  They have scored a total of 105 points in those two games and an average of 52.5 points per game.  But this is a poor ECU defense that has allowed 37 points per game and 440.8 yards per game in their last four games.

East Carolina will be able to name its number against this soft Tulsa defense.  The Golden Hurricane rank 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 125th in total defense at 449.4 yards per game and 126th at 6.7 yards per play.

The OVER is 4-1 in Tulsa's last five games overall with 72 or more combined points three times.  It's largely due to the defense, which is allowing 45.0 points per game during this stretch.  They allowed 52 to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA and 59 to UAB.

Utah State transfer Cooper Legas has injected some life into this Tulsa offense as well.  He led the Golden Hurricane to a 46-45 comeback win over UTSA two games ago with 333 passing yards and 5 TD as well as 46 rushing yards on 13 attempts.  Legas went for 230 passing yards and 2 TD in their 59-21 loss to UAB last time out.  They had 423 total yards in that game and probably should have scored more.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 69, 73, 64 and 56 combined points.  With the way these teams are built this season, I expect them to easily combine to top 61 points Thursday night.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* EMU/Ohio MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

This has been a crazy week of good weather for these MAC weekday games, which is rare for mid-November.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind and no chance of precipitation for this start of this game between Eastern Michigan and Ohio Wednesday night.  This looks like a shootout relative to this 49.5-point total, and at the very least the total should be set in the 50's.

Eastern Michigan has gone up-tempo this season ranking 23rd in the country in seconds between snaps.  That move has propelled the Eagles to have one of the most improved offenses in the country.  The Eagles are scoring 29.2 points per game and averaging 392.1 yards per game with a balanced attack that averages 246 passing yards per game and 146 rushing.

Ohio is scoring 26.2 points per game and averaging 383.2 yards per game.  The Bobcats average 6.0 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the MAC.  This Ohio offense is humming right now putting up 47 points against Buffalo and 41 against Kent State in their last two games coming in.  QB Parker Navarro is a dual-threat with 556 rushing yards and 6.2 per carry, and Northwestern transfer RB Anthony Tyus is a playmaker with 694 rushing yards in basically just seven games.

The Bobcats should be able to name their number against a soft Eastern Michigan defense that ranks 115th in the country in allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Eagles are allowing 31.8 points per game in conference play despite getting to face Akron, CMU and Kent State.  The OVER is 4-1 in EMU's last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of the five.  The OVER is 3-1 in Ohio's last four games with 50 or more combined points in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* WMU/Bowling Green MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 56 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they travel to face Bowling Green.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 30th in the country in scoring offense at 33.3 points per game and 23rd at 6.5 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 123rd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game, 116th at 427.6 yards per game and 118th at 6.4 yards per play.

Bowling Green has a balanced offense that averages 5.9 yards per play against a brutal schedule that features Penn State and Texas A&M in non-conference.  This BG offense put up 41 points on a solid Toledo defense two games ago.  I fully expect one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against Western Michigan in what will be a shootout with very few stops.  The forecast looks good with no wind or precipitation, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ball State/Buffalo OVER 53.5

Ball State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 OVER in all games this season.  They have a respectable offense, but their defense is one of the worst in the country.  They rank 132nd in scoring at 38.9 points per game, 129th in total defense at 461.3 yards per game and 134th at 7.2 yards per play.

Buffalo runs an up-tempo offense that ranks 33rd in the country in seconds per play.  The Bulls have scored 30, 41 and 41 points in three of their last four games and should be able to name their number on this Ball State defense.  The Bulls rank 97th in scoring defense allowing 29.0 points per game and 105th in total defense at 408.7 yards per game.  The Cardinals should be able to keep pace.

The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls' last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in each of their last three games.  The forecast looks good for a shootout with no wind or precipitation, which is rare for these midweek MAC games in November.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UCF/ASU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The UCF Knights are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 28th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  Gus Malzahn has always been known for his up-tempo offenses, and he has this UCF offense rolling now that he handed over coordinator duties and fired his defensive coordinator.

Amazingly, UCF has been through three different starting quarterbacks, but it looks like they should have been starting Dylan Rizk the entire time.  He came in at the end of the BYU game two weeks ago and completed 6-of-10 passes for 102 yards and a TD to close out that game.  Malzahn has been missing a QB that can actually throw the ball all season, and he finally has one in Rizk, who is also a dual-threat.

Rizk got his 1st start last week and completed 20-of-25 passes for 294 yards and 3 TD while also rushing for 55 yards on 9 carries in a 56-12 win over Arizona.  He led this high-powered UCF offense to 602 total yards against Arizona in the win.  This offense is much more versatile with Rizk who can actually complete a forward pass moving forward.

It's amazing the success this UCF offense has had without that being the case to this point.  They still rank 10th in total offense at 471.1 yards per game and 10th at 6.9 yards per play largely due to a rushing attack that ranks 2nd in the country at 272.3 yards per game.  Having the threat of a pass will actually open up the running game for electric RB BJ Harvey (1,201 yards, 16 TD, 7.0/carry) even more moving forward.

Arizona State has a better offense than it gets credit for this season averaging 417 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Sun Devils have great balance averaging over 200 yards per game both rushing and passing.  They average 31.1 points per game on the season.

The Sun Devils are coming off a 42-21 win at Oklahoma State and 63 combined points.  They racked up 529 total yards with QB Sam Leavitt making his return from injury.  Leavitt threw for 304 yards and 3 TD in the win.  They may need to rely on him more if RB Cam Skattebo can't go as he is questionable after suffering an injury last week.  But ASU being more pass-heavy would only benefit the OVER even more.

The OVER is 7-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in seven of their nine games.  The OVER is 4-3-1 in all Arizona State games this season with 52 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +25

I always like fading the No. 1 team in the country in the initial college football playoff rankings.  Oregon has that distinction this week, and with that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.  I think Oregon is inflated as a 25-point favorite over Maryland this week.

The Ducks are feeling 'fat and happy' now sitting at 9-0 and coming off a 21-point win over Michigan, covering as 14.5-point favorites only after a TD in the final seconds when they could have kneeled.  That wasn't normal for Dan Lanning who has been more than content with taking the air out of the ball in the 2H of games this season.

While we'll 'sell high' on the No. 1 ranked team in the country, we'll 'buy low' on the Terrapins at the same time.  They are coming off a bad 48-23 loss at Minnesota last time out.  You could see it coming because this was a tired Maryland team playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.

But now the Terrapins finally got their bye last week, and they will come back refreshed and motivated to give Oregon a run for its money this week.  Keep in mind this is a Maryland team that played Indiana as tough as anyone has this season on the road.  They only lost 42-28 to the Hoosiers, and that loss is aging very well considering the Hoosiers are blasting everyone else.

Now it's Oregon that is the tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week and coming off a physical game against Michigan.  This looks like their letdown spot, especially with an even bigger game on deck at Wisconsin next week.

Maryland is outgaining opponents by more than 50 yards per game this season.  The Terrapins only allow 105.2 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, ranking in the Top 20 in run defense in both categories.  They will be able to stop the run in this game in the 2H to get the ball back for underrated QB Billy Edwards.

Edwards is completing 68.4% of his passes for 2,314 yards with a 13-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has two elite receivers to get the ball to in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 118 receptions for 1,394 yards and 9 TD on the season.  I expect the rejuvenated Terrapins to keep coming for four quarters and to stay within this inflated 25-point spread.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Jacksonville State -10

Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games while outscoring their opponents 234 to 85 in those five games.  They have covered the spread by a combined 87 points in those five games.

The Gamecocks have won each of their last five games by double-digits, and now I think they'll make it 6 in a row against an overmatched Louisiana Tech team Saturday.  Jacksonville State got a much-needed bye last week after playing four consecutive weeks.  They will come back rejuvenated and ready to chase down a C-USA title currently sitting tied for 1st with WKU at 4-0 within the conference but only one game ahead of Sam Houston State.

LA Tech is just 3-5 SU this season despite playing one of the softest schedules in the entire country.  In fact, the Bulldogs' schedule ranks 152nd in the country, which means there are about 20 FBS teams that have played a tougher schedule than they have.  That makes their 3-5 record that much worse.

Jacksonville State ranks 15th in the country in scoring offense at 38.6 points per game, 12th in total offense at 464.9 yards per game and 8th at 7.1 yards per play.  The Gamecocks just keep coming under Rich Rodriquez ranking 11th in tempo as well, so they get a lot of possessions.

LA Tech doesn't have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Gamecocks.  Offense is the Bulldogs' biggest weakness as they rank 112th in scoring at 21.2 points per game, 105th in total offense at 344.9 yards per game and 124th at 4.9 yards per play.  If they get behind, which they will, they don't have the capability to catch up.  Bet Jacksonville State Saturday.

20* Georgia/Ole Miss ABC No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3

The Ole Miss Rebels are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS this season with some of the best numbers in the country.  Numbers even better than Georgia, which makes me believe the wrong team is favored here catching 3 points at home with the Rebels.

Ole Miss ranks 2nd in the country in total offense at 554.0 yards per game and 2nd at 7.7 yards per play with the usual elite Lane Kiffin offense.  But it's the defense that makes this team different than in year's past. The Rebels only allow 317.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play, which ranks 5th in the country.  They are outgaining their opponents by 236 yards per game and a ridiculous 3.3 yards per play.

Let's just compare that to Georgia.  The Bulldogs averaged 431 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 295 yards per game and 4.7 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play, and while elite, that's about half as much as Ole miss is outgaining its opponents by this season.

Georgia QB Carson Beck gets too much respect and is having a terrible season.  He has a 10-to-11 TD/INT ratio in his last five games coming in.  The Bulldogs were lucky DJ Lagway got hurt in the 1H against Florida last week because the Gators had them on the ropes.  That game was tied 20-20 with under 5 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter to show just how vulnerable this Georgia team really is right now.

The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU but just 2-6 ATS and they have been overvalued for a few seasons now.  They will slip up this week, and Kiffin will finally get over the hump and beat an elite team because he finally has the horses to get it done.  Ole Miss is the better team this season and that will show on the field Saturday afternoon.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +3

The San Jose State Spartans sit at 5-3 on the season one win away from bowl eligibility.  They come off their bye week and off their worst loss of the season to Fresno State.  It was a misleading loss as the Spartans lost by 23 despite only getting outgained by 22 yards.

Now the Spartans come back as 3-point dogs this week at Oregon State when I believe they should be favored and will win this game outright.  Their other two losses came on the road by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State, and those losses look even better now with Colorado State in line to make the MWC Championship Game, and Washington State sitting at 7-1 SU this season with their only loss to Boise State.

As much as I like this San Jose State team, this is as much of a fade of Oregon State as anything.  The Beavers are in limbo right now without a conference and it looks like they packed it in in their last game.  They lost 44-7 at California while giving up 478 yards to the Bears and only managing 200 total yards themselves.  They got outgained by 278 yards.  I think that's a sign of things to come for the Beavers the rest the way.

And while the Spartans are as healthy as pretty much anyone in the country right now coming out of their bye week, the Beavers have three players out and another eight questionable on their injury report.  They especially have a ton of injuries on defense which explains how they could give up 44 points and 478 yards to Cal.  This is a great SJSU run-and-shoot offense that will take advantage as well.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Michigan/Indiana CBS ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -14

The books just can't set these Indiana spreads high enough, and they haven't set it high enough this week either.  When a team has a turnaround like Indiana has it takes the books and the betting public a long time to catch up.  The Hoosiers are legitimately one of the best teams in the country and nobody wants to believe it.

Indiana is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and would be 9-0 ATS against the opening line as they failed to cover the closing line in Week 1.  Their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 14 points or more.  They are covering the spread by an average of 17.2 points per game in their nine games this season.  There is nothing fluky about it when you dig into the numbers.

The Hoosiers rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 46.6 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.2 yards per game and 5th at 7.1 yards per play.  They rank 7th in scoring defense at 13.7 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 261 yards per game and 3rd at 4.3 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 33 points per game and outgaining them by 215 yards per game and 2.8 yards per play.

If you just changed the name of their team to Ohio State and gave them the same numbers, they would be favored by 24-plus points against Michigan.  But the Hoosiers remain undervalued this week.  QB Kurtis Roarke returned from injury last week and proved he is just fine in leading Indiana to a 47-10 beat down over Michigan State at home.  That's the same Michigan State team that took Michigan to the wire a few weeks ago.  Roarke threw 4 TD passes in the win.

Michigan had its 'all in' game last week against Oregon in a 38-17 defeat at home.  The Ducks held the Wolverines to just 11 first downs and 270 total yards, while rackng up 470 yards against what was supposed to be a good Michigan defense.  I think Indiana can dominate Michigan just as well as Oregon did, and they are laying 14 at home whereas Oregon was laying 14.5 on the road.

Offense has been the problem for Michigan all season.  They just don't have a QB who can throw an accurate forward pass, and their talent at receiver is embarrassing.  The Wolverines rank 116th in scoring at 21.0 points per game, 127th in total offense at 299.4 yards per game and 128th in passing at 134.3 yards per game.

Michigan relies heavily on running the football, and that makes this a terrible matchup for them.  The Hoosiers rank 1st in the country allowing just 72.6 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per carry.  When the Wolverines fall behind, which they will, they have no way of catching up.  Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has no problem running up the score, and he would love to make a statement here against the defending champs.  I also like the fact that Indiana has a bye on deck next week so will be 'all in' this week.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -3

I was on NC State last week as 9.5-point favorites over Stanford.  They crushed the Cardinal 59-28 covering the spread by more than 20 points.  I'm back on NC State for many of the same reasons this week.

The Wolfpack are undervalued right now after starting the season just 1-7 ATS.  They played a brutal schedule having to play eight consecutive weeks to open the season.  They finally got a bye last week to regroup, and now they remain fresh and ready to go this week off that blowout win over Stanford.

It's also a motivated NC State team sitting at 5-4 and looking for that 6th win to get bowl eligible.  I saw 'buy' signs on this team in their final two games going into the bye, especially with freshman QB CJ Bailey.

Three games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up two weeks ago, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded.  And last week Bailey threw for 234 yards and 3 TD in leading the Wolfpack to 59 points against Stanford in that blowout win.

While I think it's a great spot for NC State, I think it's a terrible spot for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off consecutive frustrating losses to SMU by 1 in OT two weeks ago and then 53-31 to Miami last week.  They were fortunate to even be competitive with SMU considering the Mustangs were -6 in turnovers and still managed to win.

But last week the Blue Devils had the unbeaten Hurricanes on the ropes actually leading that game 28-17 in the 3rd quarter.  That's when it all fell apart.  Miami outscored Duke 36-3 in the final 22 minutes and turned on the after burners to not only win by 22, but actually cover the 21-point spread.

That was a tough beat for Duke bettors, and it's a very tough spot for Duke now.  They have to try and get back up off the mat off those two frustrating losses that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They sit at 6-3 and already bowl eligible, and I question how motivated they'll be the rest of the way now.  

This is the obvious flat spot for them, and I know they won't be nearly as motivated to beat NC State as they were to try and take down SMU and Miami the last two weeks.  I also question how much they'll have left in the tank playing for a 4th consecutive week with the last three games all going down to the wire.  This has Wolfpack blowout written all over it.  Bet NC State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UConn/UAB OVER 56.5

The UAB Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  The main reason is a poor defense that ranks 125th in the country allowing 35.5 points per game.  They also rank 33rd in tempo playing much faster than average.  The OVER is 5-1 in UAB's last six games overall with 54 or more combined points in all six games, including 59 or more combined points in five of them.

This UAB offense has come to life since the switch to Jalen Kitna at quarterback.  He threw for 239 yards and a TD in a 71-20 loss to Tulane four games ago, 242 yards and a TD in a 44-10 loss at Army three games ago, 384 yards and 2 TD in a 35-25 loss to USF two games ago and 404 yards and 6 TD in a 59-21 win over Tulsa last week.

UConn isn't known for a high-powered offense, but the Huskies will have one of their best outputs of the season this week against UAB.  They played a Georgia State team with a similar profile with a decent offense and poor defense last week.  They won 34-27 for 61 combined points.  The Huskies also play faster than average ranking 47th in tempo, so there will be a lot of possessions in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College -1.5

I love the spot for the Boston College Eagles this week.  They sit at 4-4 on the season and in desperate need of a win this week if they want to make a bowl game.  They are coming off three consecutive losses and they were a very tied team having to play eight consecutive weeks to start the season.

That's why the bye couldn't have come at a better time last week to allow the Eagles to rest, get healthy and refocus for the stretch run under first-year head coach Bill O'Brien.  Bye weeks are always more beneficial for first-year head coaches, and I expect O'Brien to get the most out of his team in these two weeks.

The Orange bounced back from a 41-13 loss at Pittsburgh with a 38-31 (OT) home win over Virginia Tech last week.  But that was a Virginia Tech team missing it's starting QB and it's starting RB, and the Orange still needed OT to put the Hokies away.  They had to use a lot of energy to come back from a 21-3 deficit in the 2H just to force OT, so I question how much they'll have left in the tank for BC this week.

I have not been impressed with Syracuse on the road this season despite their 2-1 SU record.  They had that 28-point loss at Pitt, and their 24-17 win at NC State was very misleading.  They benefited from being +3 in turnovers in that game.  Their 44-41 (OT) win at UNLV was also fortunate.

Syracuse QB Kyle McCord consistently puts the ball in danger with 12 interceptions thrown already this season.  Boston College has 11 interceptions on defense and is a ball-hawking unit, and I think turnovers in their favor will be the difference, plus the fact that they are the more rested, prepared team coming off a bye week.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* New Mexico/San Diego State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 67.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos are 7-2 OVER in all games this season with 64 or more combined points in seven of their nine games this season.  That includes 94, 95, 89 and 90 combined points in four of their last five games coming in.

Bronco Mendenhall has brought his up-tempo offense to New Mexico as the Lobos rank 30th in tempo.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.8 points per game, 7th in total offense at 480.1 yards per game and 18th at 6.8 yards per play.  They have great balance rushing for 231 yards per game and throwing for 249 yards per game.  QB Devon Dampier is a stud, throwing for 2,243 yards and 10 TD while also rushing for 13 scores.

But this New Mexico defense is a dumpster fire.  The Lobos rank 132nd in scoring defense allowing 40.8 points per game, 131st in total defense at 492.3 yards per game and 132nd at 7.1 yards per play.  They recently found themselves in shootouts with two of the worst offensive teams in the country, which shows how bad their defense really is. They beat Air Force 52-37 and lost to Wyoming 49-45.

Sean Lewis brought his flash-fast offense to San Diego State.  The Aztecs are indeed playing fast, ranking 16th in the country in tempo at 23.6 seconds in between snaps.  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game.  And while it has been an up-and-down season for this SDSU offense, they are in line for their best performance of the season just like previously dead Wyoming and AF offenses.

The OVER is 3-1 in San Diego State's last four games overall with the lone under going under by 1.5 points.  They are coming off a 56-24 loss to Boise State last Friday that saw 80 combined points.  This thing should sail OVER the number again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Iowa/UCLA FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye two weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed last week and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.

A big reason I'm backing the Bruins again this week is because they match up well with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Bruins are one of the best defenses in the country at stopping the run, which is even more impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  UCLA ranks 12th in the country allowing 100.4 rushing yards per game and 18th at 3.3 yards per carry.

Iowa made the switch to dual-threat Brendan Sullivan at quarterback finally two games ago in the 2H of their 40-14 win over Northwestern.  They stuck with him for their 42-10 home win over Wisconsin last week.  Those two results have the Hawkeyes overvalued now, and with a couple games of film on him, I expect the Bruins to come up with the proper game plan to slow the Hawkeyes down this week.

Iowa hasn't seen many QB's as good as Ethan Garbers of UCLA, and the weakness of this Iowa defense is their pass defense.  Iowa State, Michigan State and Ohio State all had success throwing the football on them.  Garbers is completing 65% of his passes for 1,703 yards with 10 touchdowns this season despite the brutal schedule.  He has a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games, wins over Rutgers and Nebraska.

Iowa hasn't had any success under Kirk Ferentz on the West Coast, and this is a tough travel spot for them on a short week.  Bet UCLA Friday.

20* FAU/ECU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play at.  The Pirates rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.

The OVER is 3-0 in ECU's last three games overall with a 55-24 loss to Charlotte for 79 combined points, a 45-28 loss to Army for 73 combined points and a 58-34 win over Temple for 90 combined points.  The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference, and he just threw for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple last time out.

The FAU Owls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  They lost 41-37 to North Texas for 78 combined points, lost 38-24 to UTSA for 62 combined points and lost 44-21 to USF for 65 combined points.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired, and both offenses should have their way in this one.  FAU is allowing 41 points per game and 498 yards per game in its last three games.  East Carolina is allowing 44.7 points per game and 454.7 yards per game in its last three games.

Florida Atlantic also prefers to play fast ranking 42nd in the country in tempo.  So this game will see a ton of possessions with ECU ranking 4th in tempo leading the way and controlling the pace playing at home.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, no wind and only 14% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NIU/Western Michigan OVER 51.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they host Northern Illinois.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 28th in the country in scoring offense at 34.0 points per game and 24th at 6.6 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 33.8 points per game, 119th at 429.6 yards per game and 119th at 6.3 yards per play.

Northern Illinois has a very good, balanced offense that is averaging 397.1 yards per game this season.  The Huskies are in line for their best offensive output of the season tonight against this suspect WMU defense.  

I expect the Broncos to keep pace behind arguably the best QB in the MAC in Hayden Wolff, who completes 69% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  RB Nixon (7.2 YPC, 10 TD) is also tough to tame.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -3

Baylor is exactly the type of team I like to back at this point of the season.  They are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate, and they are showing a lot of fight right now trying to make a bowl game late in the season.

Baylor has legit road losses to Utah and Iowa State, but the Bears really should be 6-2 this season.  Colorado needed a hail mary to force OT to beat them in Boulder, and the other loss came by 6 at home to BYU, which is currently undefeated.  Nobody has played BYU tougher than Baylor did.  They actually outgained the Cougars 387 to 367 for the game.

Sitting at 2-4 on the season after the loss to Iowa State, the Bears could have packed it in going into their bye week.  Instead, they have responded with two of their best performances of the season.  They crushed Texas Tech 59-35 on the road behind 629 total yards of offense two weeks ago.  Last week they beat Oklahoma State 38-28 at home behind another 565 total yards.

TCU is 5-3 this season it has come against a much softer schedule than Baylor has played.  The five wins have come against Stanford, FCS Long Island, Kansas, Utah without Cam Rising and Texas Tech.  They also lost outright to Houston as 16-point favorites, their home loss to UCF looks even worse now, and they lost by 24 to the best team they have faced thus far in SMU.

TCU needed a 17-point comeback in the 2nd half to beat Texas Tech by 1 last week.  This came after the Red Raiders lost their starting QB to injury as well.  And that give these teams a recent common opponent.  Baylor just blasted Texas Tech by 24 two weeks ago.  No question the Bears are the team playing the better football right now.

There is a good chance of wind and rain in this one, and Baylor is by far the superior rushing team with much better balance on offense than TCU.  The Horned Frogs only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and Baylor only allows 3.7 yards per carry on defense.  Baylor averages 176 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry on offense, while TCU allows 166 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry on defense.

Finally, Baylor wants revenge from four consecutive losses to TCU in this head-to-head series, including a couple heartbreakers.  I think they have the better team this season and will finally get it done, plus they are at home here where they have played their best football this season.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Navy -11

The Navy Midshipmen have been an absolute wagon this season going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS.  But they just lost to Notre Dame last week 51-14 for their first defeat of the season.  That misleading final score has the betting public off their scent, and now is the time to 'buy low' on the Midshipmen off that embarrassing loss.

Navy isn't eliminated from the 12-team playoff yet, and a big finish could get them in.  They still have chances to impress coming up including games against two very good teams in Tulane and Army.  But it starts with a rebound this week against a terrible Rice team.

The reason that loss to Notre Dame was misleading was because Navy uncharacteristically committed six turnovers that set up a bunch of easy points for the Fighting Irish.  Ball security will be at the forefront of their game plan for Rice, and I expect them to execute flawlessly this week.

Rice is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS this season and just fired its head coach in Mike Bloomgren, who had taken them to a bowl the last two years.  I think this is a program in turmoil now and I don't think they should have fired him.  There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team.

Rice doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Navy in this one.  The Owls were held to 10 points each of the last two weeks, and their lone touchdown last week against Connecticut came on a kickoff return.  They rank 109th in scoring offense at 21.6 points per game and 114th in total offense at 329.6 yards per game.

Navy ranks 10th in scoring offense at 40.4 points per game.  Rice faced a similar Army team earlier this season and got blasted 37-14.  They allowed 288 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  Navy will have similar success and win this one going away.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +7

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so importanta that they got a bye last week to recover.  Now rested and ready to go, I expect a big effort from the Bruins this week at Nebraska.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State and Rutgers on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

I think the spot is terrible for Nebraska.  After losing 56-7 at Indiana two weeks ago, Nebraska showed some great fight last week in nearly upsetting Ohio State in a 21-17 defeat as 25-point road dogs.  I think that effort has them overvalued, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Their chances of winning the Big Ten are now crushed with three conference losses, and I just don't see them being nearly as motivated to face UCLA as they were to face Ohio State.

Nebraska lost 31-24 (OT) at home to Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and only beat Rutgers 14-7 as 7-point favorites in their last two home games.  It's not as big of a home-field advantage as it is cracked up to be.  The Huskers should not be 7-point home favorites against UCLA here.

There is expected to be rain and wind in this game, which will keep scoring suppressed, which also means that each point is worth more so getting +7 is a nice value.  The Huskers have cluster injuries in the secondary that UCLA QB Ethan Garbers should be able to take advantage of.  

The Bruins have one of the best defensive lines in the country, allowing just 98.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  That's really impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  They will stop Nebraska's suspect rushing attack, which averages 126.4 yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season.  UCLA's ability to compete with Nebraska in the trenches is a big reason they get the cover here and possibly win outright.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Florida +17

Everyone threw Billy Napier under the bus after losing to Miami in the opener.  It turns out Miami is one of the best teams in all of college football still unbeaten on the season.  The Gators have been undervalued since, especially in recent weeks, and I like what I've seen from this team in their last few games.  I think they can hang with Georgia in 'The World's Largest Cocktail Party' Saturday as a result.

Florida is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games.  It started with a 45-28 win at Mississippi State in which the Gators racked up 503 total yards.  They came back from their bye week and topped UCF 24-13 as 1-point home dogs.  They held a high-powered UCF offense to just 273 total yards.  They lost 23-17 (OT) as 14-point dogs at Tennessee and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Vols 361 to 312 for the game, again shutting down another high-powered offense defensively.

The Gators were impressive last time out not letting that loss to Tennessee beat them twice.  They responded with their most complete performance of the season, crushing Kentucky 48-20 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining them 476 to 309 for the game.

Freshman sensation DJ Lagway took over at QB for good against Kentucky and threw for 259 yards on only 14 attempts, while also rushing for 46 yards on 10 carries.  He gives them a dual-threat option that Georgia will have to prepare for.  The Bulldogs did not handle their games against other dual-threat QB's well this season, losing outright to Alabama and failing to cover against Auburn.

I think this line is inflated because Georgia won outright 30-15 at Texas in their last game to hand the Longhorns their lone loss this season.  They were 'fat and happy' going into their bye week after making that statement.  But keep in mind Georgia was 0-5 ATS in its previous five games consistently overvalued week after week.  And the Bulldogs are back to being overvalued this week as 17-point favorites against a feisty Gators team.  Bet Florida Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina ML -130

The UNC Tar Heels received a much-needed bye two weeks ago.  They entered on a four-game losing streak with several close losses to Georgia Tech, Pitt and Duke.  They could have easily packed it in, instead they responded with their best performance of the season coming out of their bye, and I like the outlook of this team moving forward.

North Carolina crushed Virginia 41-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs last week.  They racked up 428 total yards and held the Cavaliers to just 288 total yards, outgaining them by 140 yards.  I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tar Heels, who are 4-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS through eight games this season.

The Florida State Seminoles are in the midst of a lost season sitting at 1-7 SU and their lone win was a fluky one against California in which they were outgained 404 to 284 for the game.  The market just cannot adjust for how poor this team is this season going from undefeated last year to now 1-7 this year.  I question how much they care about finishing this season strong.

I think Florida State's 'all in' effort came last week against rival Miami and they came up short, losing 36-14 only after scoring a meaningless TD in garbage time in the final seconds.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNC as they were to beat Miami.  If anything, they'll be looking ahead to their matchup with another playoff contender in Notre Dame next week.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them.

Florida State's offense is abysmal as they have tried three different quarterbacks and all have struggled.  Uiagelelei completed just 53.8% of his passes, Glenn 45.1% and Kromenhoek 42.9%.  There's just no answer on their roster.  The Seminoles rank 133rd in scoring at 14.9 points per game, 131st in total offense at 272.5 yards per game and 129th at 4.5 yards per play.

UNC has another great QB in Jacolby Criswell, who has a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio since taking over and is getting better with each passing game.  Omarion Hampton has already rushed for 1,006 yards and 5.6 per carry this season and is one of the best backs in the country.  UNC has far and away the superior offense, ranking 30th in scoring at 33.9 points per game and 28th in total offense at 442.4 yards per game.  

FSU only has a slight edge defensively, but it's not enough to overcome the huge advantage the Tar Heels have on offense.  I think the Tar Heels are in the much better frame of mind fighting for a bowl, are the healthier, more rested and more motivated team, and they should be bigger favorites this weekend as a result.  Bet North Carolina on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/UAB OVER 57

Two fast-paced offenses square off Saturday when Tulsa travels to UAB for this AAC showdown.  UAB ranks 25th in tempo at 24.1 seconds between snaps while Tulsa ranks 30th.  Both offenses should have plenty of success against two of the worst defenses in the country in this one.

UAB ranks 129th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game.  The Blazers have allowed at least 32 points in six consecutive games now.  They even allowed 32 points to a poor ULM offense and 35 points to a USF offense that was starting a backup QB last time out.

Tulsa ranks 122nd in scoring defense allowing 35.9 points per game.  The Golden Hurricane have allowed at least 45 points in four of their last six games.  They were in a wild 46-45 shootout last week with UTSA, and I expect more of the same here against this UAB team coming off a bye week that should be much sharper offensively this week with several new wrinkles for them.

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday afternoon with temps in the 70's, light winds and zero rain.  These are two teams with not much to play for the rest of the way, and these are the type of games I like to bet OVERS in with the care-free attitude both teams will take to the field.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -6.5

I've backed Auburn with success in recent weeks and I'm back on them again this week.  They are exactly the type of team I like to back.  They are much better than their 3-5 record would indicate when you dig into their numbers, and because of their poor record they remain undervalued.

Auburn is averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.  The Tigers are outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire country.  It's the sign of a team that would be 6-2 or better instead of one that is 3-5 like Auburn.

But the Tigers got a much-needed bye three weeks ago after covering in an 18-point loss at Georgia as 21-point closing dogs.  They returned from their bye and gave Missouri all they wanted in a 21-17 road loss as closing 3.5-point dogs, which I had them at +4.5 earlier in the week and got the cover.  They were the right side the entire game as they led 17-6 in the 4th quarter before giving up 15 unanswered points.

Auburn took out its frustration last week in a dominant 24-10 win at Kentucky as 2-point underdogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as Auburn racked up 500 total yards on a very good Kentucky defense while giving up just 224 yards, outgaining the Wildcats by nearly 300 yards for the game.

While I'm 'buying low' on Auburn because of its poor SU record, I'm 'selling high' on Vanderbilt after a surprising 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  This has been one of the best Vanderbilt teams in recent memory and it's mostly due to getting New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia at quarterback.

But the Commodores are running on fumes right now and so is Pavia.  They will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and each of their last six games have all gone down to the wire, so they have had no breaks.  They lost by 4 to Georgia State, lost by 3 at Missouri, won by 5 over Alabama, won by 7 over Kentucky, won by 10 over Ball State and lost by 3 to Texas.

Vanderbilt was 'all in' last week trying to upset Texas at home.  It was a 27-24 final as 17-point dogs, but this game was much more of a blowout than the final score showed.  Texas outgained Vanderbilt 392 to 269, or by 123 total yards.  And the Commodores got a big chunk of those yards on their final drive scoring what was basically a meaningless TD in the final seconds to make a 10-point game a 3-point game.

Pavia got injured during the game and actually had to come out before returning.  I just don't know how much he has left in the tank, and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses part of this game either.  The Commodores won't be nearly as motivated to beat Auburn as they were to beat Texas last week, and this looks like the ultimate flat spot for them.  

I expect Auburn to take control early and to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Auburn is a physical running team averaging 5.2 yards per carry with the zone read.  The Commodores won't be able to match their physicality, especially since they are playing for a 5th consecutive week after going through a gauntlet.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue ML +100

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Purdue Boilermakers this week.  They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the season and the betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now.  But I've seen some 'buy signs' in their last two games, and I love the fact that they are rested and ready to go coming off a much-needed bye week.

Purdue played six straight games going into their bye week.  Two games ago, they took Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 loss.  In their last game going into the bye, they lost 35-0 to Oregon, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They were only outgained by 120 yards by the Ducks, but they just kept coming up short time and time again in Oregon territory.

After a brutal six-game schedule of Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon, the Boilermakers finally get to take a big step down in class here against Northwestern.  While the Boilermakers are fresh and much healthier off their bye week, they face a tired, banged-up Northwestern team playing for a 5th consecutive week.

The Wildcats showed signs of wearing down in their last two games losing 23-3 at home to Wisconsin and 40-14 at Iowa.  They scored both of their touchdowns against Iowa on defense and special teams.  They only managed 163 total yards against Iowa and 209 total yards against Wisconsin.  They have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They rank 123rd in scoring offense at 18.4 points per game and 132nd in total offense at 271.1 yards per game.  Bet Purdue on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State -9.5

This is a good time to 'buy low' on NC State after starting 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  The Wolfpack had a bye last week to regroup and make a push to make a bowl game.  I fully expect them to come out of their bye week playing their best football of the season.

The Wolfpack have shown 'buy' signs in their last two games, and they desperately needed a bye after playing eight consecutive weeks to start the season without a bye.  That tough schedule was a big reason for their struggles.

Two games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Freshman QB CJ Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up last time out, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded, and now Bailey and company take a big step down in class this week against Stanford.

Now Stanford is the team that that's tired and beat up right now.  The Cardinal will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  Not to mention, they had cross country trips to Syracuse, Clemson and Notre Dame during this stretch, and now they have to fly back across country again here to face a rested, motivated NC State squad.  I don't expect it to go well for them.

Stanford is 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has rarely even been competitive.  They lost by 26 at Clemson, by 24 at home to Virginia Tech, by 42 at Notre Dame and by 30 at home to SMU.  The only game they were competitive in came last week at home in a 3-point loss to Wake Forest.  But they were outgained by 72 yards by the Demon Deacons, who are one of the worst teams in the ACC.

The spot really favors a blowout by the rested, motivated Wolfpack at home here.  Bet NC State Saturday.

20* San Diego State/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on San Diego State +23.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of love now after a 6-1 start and are the favorites to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With that hype comes expectations that are very tough to live up to, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot catching 23.5 points with the San Diego State Aztecs Friday night.

The Broncos are coming off their biggest game of the year.  They escaped with a 29-24 win at UNLV last week in what was essentially an elimination game for the 12-team playoff.  I think they breathe a sigh of relief, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Diego State this week, let alone beat them by 24-plus points.

San Diego State is improving rapidly under first-year head coach Sean Lewis.  He led the turnaround at Kent State and that program has been dreadful since he left.  The Aztecs were competitive in each of their last four games losing by 1 at Central Michigan, beating Hawaii by 3, beating Wyoming by 3 and only losing by 3 to Washington State.

That 3-point loss to Washington State last week off their bye week was most impressive.  They actually led 26-14 in the 4th quarter against a very good Cougars team.  They outgained them 414 to 371 for the game, or by 43 total yards.  They won't have any problem getting back up off the mat to face a ranked Boise State team this week.

There is expected to be some weather here with a 60% chance of rain and 15 MPH winds in Boise Friday night.  The tougher scoring conditions makes each point worth more, and thus it will make it much harder for the Broncos to get margin.  They have just two wins by more than 21 points this season and they came against Utah State and FCS Portland State.  I think they'll get more of a fight from the Aztecs than they bargained for in this one.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

15* Tulane/Charlotte ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +15

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye three weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that was a very misleading final against Navy.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

That misleading final was a big reason I backed Charlotte last week as 17-point closing dogs at Memphis.  The 49ers gave the Tigers all they wanted in a 33-28 loss.  Memphis is just as good as Tulane, and now the 49ers are catching 15 points at home to the Green Wave this week.  This value is too good to pass up again.

I think it's a tough spot for Tulane, and I haven't been all that impressed with the Green Wave in their last couple games.  Two weeks ago they only beat Rice 24-10 as 22.5-point home favorites.  Last week they were fortunate to cover in a 45-37 win at North Texas as 7-point favorites.  They allowed 525 total yards to the Mean Green, and now they are on a short week here and their defense is gassed.  

Not to mention there is a lot of travel involved having to return home from Dallas and now flying out to Charlotte, going clear across the country from Saturday to Thursday.  They also just clinched bowl eligibility getting to 6-2 this season, so this could be a flat spot for them.  Either way, the 49ers are good enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Green Wave.  Bet Charlotte Thursday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State +2.5

Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now.  The Gamecocks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games while outscoring their opponents 203 to 64 in those four games.  They have covered the spread by a combined 74.5 points in those four games.  Now the Gamecocks come back as underdogs to Liberty tonight, and the wrong team is favored in this game.

Liberty is 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS and very fortunate to be 5-1 SU.  The Flames came into the season as a popular pick to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With those expectations come inflated lines that have clearly been tough for them to live up to.

The Flames escaped with a 30-24 win at New Mexico State as a 22-point favorite, needed a double-digit comeback to beat East Carolina, only beat FIU 31-24 as 16-point favorites, and also struggled to put away both UTEP and Campbell by margin.

It all caught up to the Flames last week as they lost outright 27-24 to Kennesaw State as 26.5-point favorites.  Kennesaw State is widely considered the worst team in FBS as a first-year member this season.  They previously hadn't won a single game this season before beating Liberty.

Now with their playoff hopes dashed, I think it's the type of loss that came beat the Flames twice.  I don't expect them to show up this week against Jacksonville State.  Meanwhile, the Gamecocks want revenge from a 31-13 loss to the Flames last season and won't have any problem showing up.  Plus they want to win the conference and are very live to do it.

New Mexico State and Kennesaw State are two common opponents of these teams.  Jacksonville State outscored those two teams 117-37, while Liberty only outscored those two teams 54-51.  Those results against common opponents show that the Gamecocks are the much superior team this season.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* CFB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +9.5

New Mexico State has a big rest advantage in this game tonight which is a big reason I'm willing to back one of the worst teams in college football.  They are coming off a bye week and last played on October 15th.

I've been impressed with some performances by the Aggies this season, not the least of which was their 33-30 win as 12-point dogs to Louisiana Tech last time out.  They also took New Mexico to the wire in a 50-40 defeat, and they should have beaten Liberty letting them off the hook late in a 30-24 defeat as 22-point dogs.

Florida International will be playing for a 4th straight week and will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days.  It has been an ugly look for the Panthers, who have lost three in a row including a 30-21 loss as 7-point favorites at UTEP, handing the Miners their lone win this season.  They also lost to Sam Houston State at home last week, and the Bearkats were without starting QB Hunter Watson.

Sitting at 2-6 on the season, I question how much the Panthers will be motivated to finish out this season.  Their bowl hopes are pretty much shot not.  I don't see them getting up to face New Mexico State tonight.

This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of just 43.5 and heavy winds in the forecast.  Getting nearly double-digits in low-scoring games is nice value as it is.  New Mexico State is the better rushing team averaging 162 rushing yards per game.  FIU allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  FIU only averages 104 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry offensively.  Bet New Mexico State Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +5.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Spartans are 5-2 SU this season with their two losses coming by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State.  That's how close they are to being 7-0.

Just looking at the numbers it's easy to see San Jose State is a better team than Fresno State.  The Spartans rank 35th in scoring at 32.1 points per game, 50th at 427.7 yards per game and 51st at 6.4 yards per play.  They allow 24.4 points per game, 372.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play on the season.

Fresno State averages 28.1 points per game, 375.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on offense.  The Bulldogs allow 26.6 points per game, 343 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  They are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game and outgaining them by 0.5 yards per play.

The Bulldogs are really trending in the wrong direction right now.  They lost 59-14 at UNLV three weeks ago, came back and lost 25-17 at home to Washington State and then were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 win at Nevada when you consider the Wolf Pack lost their starting QB in that game to injury.

Nevada and Washington State are common opponents of these two teams, and San Jose State played those two teams much better than Fresno State did.  This line should be much closer to PK than 5.5.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas +10.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kansas Jayhawks this week.  They are just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS this season, but no team has had worse luck in close games than the Jayhawks.  In fact, all five of their losses have come by 11 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  Both wins came in blowout fashion 48-3 over Lindenwood and 42-14 over Houston.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State, which has gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Wildcats beat a bad Oklahoma State team 42-20, snuck by Colorado 31-28 on the road, and took down West Virginia 45-18 on the road thanks to several key injuries for the Mountaineers throughout that game.

Kansas State has won 15 straight meetings with Kansas in this rivalry.  No question the Jayhawks are looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and they would make their season simply by winning this one game no matter what else happens.  That's why it will be easy for them to put the poor start behind them and look ahead to this game, and they started that last week coming back from their bye to crush Houston 42-14 while racking up 467 total yards on what is a very good Cougars defense.

Kansas came close to upsetting Kansas State last season losing 31-27 as 7-point home dogs.  No question they believe they can hang with the Wildcats, and they should not be catching double-digits here Saturday.  The Wildcats only have slightly better numbers than the Jayhawks this season, not numbers that warrant being a double-digit favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M ML -140

The LSU Tigers are starting to get too much respect after wins and covers against Ole Miss and Arkansas the last two weeks.  They were in a great spot against Ole Miss coming off their bye while Ole Miss was tired and banged up, and they upset the Rebels at home in OT in a night game in Baton Rouge.

Last week they went on the road as 3-point favorites and took down Arkansas by a final of 34-10.  This was a very misleading final as the Tigers benefited from being +3 in turnovers with one that set up an easy TD for LSU and another that took points off the board for Arkansas.  LSU only averaged 5.5 yards per play while Arkansas averaged 5.6 yards per play.

That misleading final is providing us with excellent line value to fade the Tigers this week.  Couple that with the fact that Texas A&M failed to cover last week against a pesky Mississippi State team, and we have great line value to back the Aggies this week.

Texas A&M beat Mississippi State 34-24 as 21-point road favorites last week.  That's the same Mississippi State team that took Georgia to the wire on the road the previous week.  The Bulldogs are quickly becoming one of the most undervalued teams in the country since they made the switch at quarterback.

Texas A&M handed Missouri its lone loss of the season the game prior winning 41-10 as 2.5-point home favorites.  Now back at home behind the 12th man and a night game in College Station, the Aggies will have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere for LSU, which hasn't faced a road game this tough all season yet.

Texas A&M has the better defense in this one holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play while LSU allows 5.8 yards per play.  LSU has a slight advantage on offense averaging 6.5 yards per play compared to 6.2 for Texas A&M.  The Aggies are a net 0.3 yards per play better than the Tigers on the season.  

The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings, so home-field advantage has been huge in this series. A night game in College Station is worth even more.  I'll skip the spread and back the Aggies on the money line just to win outright.  Bet Texas A&M on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Michigan BTN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +5

The Michigan State Spartans went through the gauntlet to open the season playing for six consecutive weeks that concluded with two games against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon.  It's safe to say they needed their bye week to get healthy and regroup two weeks ago.

The Spartans came out of their bye and looked like a new team in a 32-20 upset home win over Iowa as 6.5-point underdogs.  I backed the Spartans in that game, and it was as easy as it gets.  The only reason it stayed close was because the Spartans settled for seven field goals, making six of them.  They outgained Iowa 468 to 283 for the game, or by 185 total yards.  Gaining 468 yards on that Iowa defense is no small feat.

A big reason I was on the Spartans in that game was because they are elite against the run, and Iowa can only run the football.  The same can be said for Michigan, which relies heavily on the run like Iowa to move the football.  The Wolverines average 180 rushing yards per game compared to just 128 passing yards per game.  Well, Michigan State allows just 3.8 yards per carry this season, which is impressive when you consider they have had to play Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa in consecutive weeks.

Michigan is 4-3 SU but 1-6 ATS this season and continues to get too much respect from the books on a weekly basis.  The Wolverines were 5-point favorites at Illinois last week, and they got upset 21-7 by the Fighting Illini.  They weren't impressive in any of their four wins, and two game by exactly 3 points at home over USC and Minnesota.  

The other two were also at home against Arkansas State by 10 and Fresno State by 20, and that Fresno State game was a lot closer than the final score.  The three losses all came by double-digits by 14 at Illinois, by 10 at Washington and by 19 at home to Texas.  So the Wolverines have actually been outscored on the season by 7 points total.  This team just isn't very good, and they should not be laying more than a FG at home to the Spartans.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/TCU FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 66

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday in Big 12 play when the Texas Tech Red Raiders visit the TCU Horned Frogs.  Both offenses have embraced playing fast as TCU ranks 15th in tempo while Texas Tech ranks 24th.  There will be more possessions in this game and more points as a result.

Texas Tech is coming off a 59-35 loss to Baylor in which conditions weren't great for scoring as it was very windy with a total of just 56.5.  They allowed a whopping 629 total yards to the Bears.  Three games ago they were in a 44-41 shootout with Cincinnati that saw 85 combined points.

I think TCU's result last week against Utah is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Utes have no offense right now with all their injuries, and they play very slow.  They beat Utah 13-7 on the road last week.  This came a week after a game against a similar Houston team with no offense that stays under the total.

When TCU has faced another offense on Texas Tech's level, they have been in high-scoring games.  Their previous three games all went OVER the total with a 38-27 win at Kansas and 65 combined points, a 66-42 loss at SMU and 108 combined points and a 35-34 loss to UCF and 69 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64.5

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team that runs a fast-paced offense and plays zero defense.  The Cowboys rank 9th in the country in tempo with 22.7 seconds between snaps on offense.  They rank 130th in total defense allowing a whopping 490.6 yards per game.

In their last three games the Cowboys allowed 42 points to Kansas State, 38 points to West Virginia and 38 to BYU.  Now they are facing a revived Baylor offense that just put up 59 points and 629 total yard on Texas Tech last week.

The OVER is 4-0 in Baylor's last four games overall combining for 69 points with Colorado, 62 with BYU, 64 with Iowa State and 94 with Texas Tech.  They allowed 35 to Texas Tech, 43 to Iowa State, 34 to BYU and 38 to Colorado, so they have a very poor defense like Oklahoma State.  

Baylor also plays fast ranking 11th in tempo at 23.0 seconds between snaps, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game with the Cowboys 9th in tempo.  Neither team can be expected to get many stops in this one.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, 5 MPH winds and zero precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Northwestern +14

The Iowa Hawkeyes have a terrible offense once again this season and have no business laying two touchdowns to the Northwestern Wildcats.  The Hawkeyes are a one-dimensional running team that averages just 136.9 passing yards per game.

A big reason I faded Iowa last week with Michigan State is because they were very good against the run, and they beat Iowa 32-20 and shut down their running game.  Well, Northwestern has a similar profile.  The Wildcats rank 21st in the country against the run allowing 103.4 rushing yards per game and 19th at 3.2 yards per carry allowed.  They will force Iowa to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think they're capable.

Northwestern just upset Maryland 37-10 as 10.5-point road underdogs in their last road game.  They have been a great bet a road underdog for years.  They have no home-field advantage so they are consistently overvalued at home, but on the road it's the complete opposite.

This has been a closely-contested series with six of the last eight meetings decided by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes allowed 468 total yards to a very suspect Michigan State offense last week.  I think the Wildcats will do enough offensively to stay within this inflated number while shutting down Iowa's offense as well.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* Illinois/Oregon CBS ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +21.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season.  This despite facing four ranked teams at the time they played them.  They are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football and should not be catching more than 3 touchdowns to Oregon this week.

Illinois upset Kansas at home, upset Nebraska on the road and upset Michigan at home.  The Fighting Illini were tied 7-7 with Penn State on the road midway through the 3rd quarter before eventually losing 21-7 as 19-point underdogs in their lone defeat.  They won't be intimated by Oregon, and they won't go down easily.

One of the best-kept secrets in the country is the play of Illinois QB Luke Altmyer, who has an absurd 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  Bret Bielema has clearly gotten the message to him that if he doesn't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone.  He also has two stud receivers in Bryant and Franklin who have combined for 61 receptions, 856 yards and 8 TD this season.

While the offense doesn't beat itself, the defense is once again the strength as the Fighting Illini rank 26th in the country in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game allowed despite the tough schedule.  I think they'll be able to hold Oregon in check on Saturday to stay within this inflated number.

Oregon has been held to 37 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season, and they only have two wins by more than 21 points, which came against Purdue and Oregon State.  That 35-0 win over Purdue last week was very misleading as they only outgained the Boilermakers by 121 yards.  The Boilermakers simply could not do anything once they got into plus-territory.

Oregon relies heavily on Dillon Gabriel and the short passing game to move the football as they only averaging 158 rushing yards per game this season.  Well, the forecast is going to make it very difficult to throw the ball with a 90% chance of rain the entire game in Eugene Saturday afternoon.  The forecast is going to keep scoring suppressed and it's going to favor the underdog catching 3 touchdowns.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Oregon UNDER 55

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 55 ticket between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Oregon Ducks.  There is a 90% chance of rain during the entire game in Eugene.  Both teams are going to run the football more than normal, which will keep the clock moving and limit explosive plays.

Illinis is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is.  The Fighting Illini rank 87th in tempo averaging 27.2 seconds in between snaps.  The UNDER is 5-2 in all Illinois games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games.  They rank 26th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 18.1 points per game.

Oregon is also playing slower than average ranking 80th in the country in tempo at 27 seconds in between snaps.  The Ducks only average 158 rushing yards per game compared to 300 passing, so their passing game will be limited by this rain.  They are only averaging 4.5 yards per rush as well so that has been a weakness for their offense.

This Oregon defense has been more impressive than the offense.  Dan Lanning is a defensive guy so it makes sense.  The Ducks rank 15th in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game allowed and 17th in total defense at 298 yards per game allowed.  Illinois ranks 90th in total offense at 366 yards per game.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in Oregon's last four games overall with 35, 41 and 47 combined points on the three unders against Purdue, Michigan State and UCLA.  The only game that went over was against Ohio State and their elite offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on BYU/UCF OVER 55

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 5-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  The Knights rank 23rd in tempo averaging 24.2 seconds between snaps.  There are extra possessions in UCF games, and they will really try to ramp up the pace playing at home Saturday.

BYU has also been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Cougars are 5-2 OVER in all games.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three Big 12 games combining for 73 points with Oklahoma State, 60 points with Arizona and 62 points with Baylor.  It should be more of the same here against UCF.

BYU ranks 23rd in the country in scoring at 34.9 points per game.  UCF ranks 48th at 31.3 points per game, but they are better than that because they are 14th in total offense at 465.6 yards per game and 23rd at 6.6 yards per play.  You can run on this BYU defense, and the Knights will have success just like they did against Iowa State last week.

The Knights racked up 35 points and 354 rushing yards on Iowa State.  I like dual-threat QB Jacurri Brown, who has rushed for 176 yards on 25 carries while averaging 7.0 per carry in two starts this season.  BYU just allowed 269 rushing yards to Oklahoma State last week, and that's a Cowboys team that could not run the football at all against anyone previously.

The Cougars also have a dual-threat QB in Jake Retzlaff, who has a 16-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 265 yards and two scores while averaging 5.4 per carry.  Both defensive coordinators will have their hands full this week.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total should be set in the 60's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple/East Carolina OVER 48.5

The East Carolina Pirates are an absolute mess right now especially defensively.  Their performances in their last two games are most concerning.  They lost 55-24 at Charlotte two games ago while allowing 517 total yards including 311 rushing.  Last week they trailed Army 38-7 in the 4th quarter before scoring 21 points in garbage time to make it a misleading final.  They allowed another 295 rushing yards to Army. I question how much this ECU defense has left in the tank after giving up over 600 rushing yards and 100 points in their last two games.

The Temple Owls have been a much better team with QB Evan Simon healthy and out there, which he was last week against Tulsa.  Simon is completing 65% of his passes for 977 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his four starts this season.  I expect Simon to light up this East Carolina defense this week.

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team because they have such a soft defense, plus they play at the 2nd-fastest tempo offensively in the country at 21.0 seconds in between snaps.  They should also have plenty of success offensively against a Temple defense that ranks 115th in scoring allowing 32.4 points per game.

This total should be set in the 50's at a minimum, and we are getting a discount here on OVER 48.5.  The last time these two teams faced off we saw 95 combined points and over 1,100 total yards combined between them.  East Carolina would be 4-0 OVER in their last four games with a total this low combining for 73 points with Army, 79 with Charlotte, 50 with UTSA and 59 with Liberty.  Temple and its opponents have combined for at least 48 points six of their seven games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/North Texas OVER 65.5

North Texas is a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in all games this season with 68 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They even combined for 61 with a terrible Wyoming offense that plays slow.

North Texas ranks 5th in the country in tempo at 21.9 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Mean Green rank 3rd in total offense at 528.0 yards per game and 10th at 7.1 yards per play as well as 9th in scoring at 41.3 points per game.  They are very leaky defensively ranking 124th in scoring at 35.7 points per game and 121st at 445.7 yards per game allowed.

Tulane will score at will on this North Texas defense.  The Green Wave have gone for 41, 45 and 71 points in three of their last four games.  They will hang a big number on the Mean Green, but I think this North Texas offense will keep coming as they always do every week.  They kept coming last week in a 52-44 loss at Memphis in which they racked up 653 total yards on what was previously a very good Tigers defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +18.5

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that misleading 51-17 final last week is providing us with some line value to back Charlotte this week as 18.5-point dogs at Memphis.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

Navy is a common opponent of these two teams as Memphis suffered its only loss to Navy by a final of 56-44.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Midshipmen racked up 566 total yards on Memphis.  I just have not been impressed with this Memphis team at all this season, especially in their last four games.

Following that upset loss to Navy, Memphis only beat Middle Tennessee 24-7 as 27-point home favorites.  That's a MTSU team that has been getting blasted by everyone else.  They only won 21-3 on a neutral in Orlando against USF, which was without its starting QB and dealing with the aftermath of the hurricane.  And last week Memphis beat North Texas 52-44 as 11-point home favorites.

The Tigers were fortunate to win that game against North Texas when you consider they were outgained by 127 yards while allowing a whopping 653 total yards to the Mean Green.  I question how much their defense has left in the tank this week.  I expect this Charlotte offense to have one of their best games of the season to keep them in this game for four quarters.  

The 49ers want revenge from a 44-38 (OT) loss to Memphis as 10-point underdogs last season, adding to their motivation.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* Louisville/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Boston College +7

This is a terrible spot for the Louisville Cardinals.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are on a short week with travel to boot.  Each of their last five games went down to the wire so they have had to put in max effort.  I just don't think they'll have much left in the tank Friday night.

The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are coming off another gut-wrenching 52-45 home loss to Miami last week that pretty much eliminated them from ACC title contention.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and the Cardinals have no business laying 7 points on the road here given the spot.  Not to mention it's a sandwich spot coming off the Miami game and with another huge game at Clemson on deck next week.

Boston College will be playing just its 2nd game in 20 days.  The Eagles are rested and ready to go.  They are also back home where they are 3-0 this season with solid wins over Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and keep in mind they didn't have starting QB Thomas Castellanos for the WKU game.

Castellanos is one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 161 yards and a score on the ground.  This Louisville defense is really gassed after allowing 52 points to Miami last week, 449 yards to Virginia two weeks ago, 34 points to SMU three weeks ago and 31 points to Notre Dame four weeks ago.  I don't think they will have the energy to chase around Castellanos for four quarters.

Boston College has a solid defense that will hold Louisville in check.  The Eagles allow 20.7 points per game, 351.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Boston College Friday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State -20.5

Jacksonville State has been an absolute wagon in their last three games.  They beat Southern Miss 44-7 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State 63-24 as 17-point favorites and New Mexico State 54-13 as 21-point favorites.  They have covered the spread in those three games by a combined 73 points and outscored their opponents by a combined 117 points.

Now the Gamecocks are off a bye week and ready to run it up on another bad team in Middle Tennessee.  I don't mind laying big numbers with teams like Jacksonville State who play at a super fast tempo, which means more possessions.  They rank 12th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.

Middle Tennessee has been embarrassing to say the least.  The Blue Raiders lost by 28 at home to Western Kentucky, by 28 at home to Duke, by 49 at Ole Miss and by 27 at LA Tech.  They also struggled to put away the worst team in college football last week in Kennesaw State in a 14-5 win.  To compare, Jacksonville State blasted Kennesaw State 63-24.  

The Blue Raiders are also in a tough spot playing their 3rd game in 14 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Gamecocks, who are fresh off a bye week and haven't played since October 9th.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* CFB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/LA Tech OVER 50

UTEP and Louisiana Tech both like to play fast on offense which means there will be a lot of possessions in this game and more chances for points.  UTEP ranks 23rd in tempo snapping it every 24.2 seconds, while LA Tech ranks 46th in tempo at 25.2 seconds in between snaps.

Both teams are coming off two of their best offensive performances of the season.  UTEP put up 30 points on FIU last week.  The Miners have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 121st in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 120th in total defense at 419.9 yards per game.

LA Tech put up 30 points on New Mexico State last week after scoring 48 on Middle Tennessee the previous week.  But the Bulldogs allowed 33 points to one of the worst offenses in the country in New Mexico State last week.  I like QB Evan Bullock, who is their full-time starter now and has a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio the last two games.  They are forming great chemistry with Bullock, and he should have another big game here.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout here tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with no wind or rain to speak of in Ruston, LA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Florida UNDER 43

Both Florida and Kentucky are dead nuts UNDER teams.  Both play elite defense and both are lacking on offense.  Add to that the fact that there will be double-digit winds in Gainesville Saturday night, and we have the recipe for an ugly, defensive battle in this one.

The UNDER is 5-1 in all Kentucky games this season.  The Wildcats rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points per game, 117th in total offense at 321.7 yards per game and 109th at 5.1 yards per play.  The Wildcats are in no hurry, either, ranking 126th in tempo at 29.9 seconds in between plays.

Kentucky ranks 9th in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game and 5th in total defense at 251.5 yards per game allowed.  Their defense is always fresh because their offense runs at such a slow pace and tries to control the ball.  Kentucky held Georgia to 13 points and Ole Miss to 17 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the country.  That's all you need to know about how good this defense really is.

I was on Florida last week as +14.5-point underdogs at Tennessee and it was mostly due to their defensive improvement.  I was very impressive with Florida only allowing 13 points and 273 total yards to UCF the week prior, including 108 rushing on 40 attempts after UCF came into that game as one of the top rushing teams in the country.

The Gators followed it up with an even more impressive defensive effort at Tennessee, allowing just 312 total yards including 143 rushing on 43 attempts to the Vols, who had previously been one of the top overall offenses in the country.  They deserved to win that game.

Unfortunately for Florida, starting QB Graham Mertz got injured in that Tennessee game and now will be out for this game.  That leaves the offense to freshman DJ Lagway, who adds a dual-threat element to their offense, but isn't near the passer that Mertz was.  The Gators are going to have to be more of a one-dimensional running team moving forward with Lagway, and that makes them even more of an UNDER team.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 44, 37, 42 and 47 combined points.  As you can see, this has been a very low-scoring series, and it figures to continue to be that way given all the factors heading into this game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +6.5

The Michigan State Spartans desperately needed a bye week.  They not only played six consecutive weeks, but they finished it by having to play two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and then having to travel to Eugene to face Oregon on a short week on a Friday night.

Now the Spartans have been off for the last two weeks and will be fresh for this game against Iowa Saturday night.  Bye weeks benefit first-year head coaches more than any, and giving one of the most underrated head coaches in the country in Jonathan Smith extra time to prepare for Iowa is a huge advantage.

This is a tough spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  After traveling to Ohio State and getting blasted two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes came back home and beat Washington 40-16 last week.  I think the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect now off that blowout win that was not only misleading, but it was also a terrible spot for Washington.

The Huskies were coming off their win over Michigan, and they got their national title revenge.  They were flat because of it, and it was an early 9:00 AM body clock game for the Huskies against Iowa last week.  Yet Washington still outgained Iowa 393 to 328 for the game.  The Hawkeyes had no business scoring 40 points on just 328 total yards, including 108 passing.

Iowa is a one-dimensional running team this season.  That makes this a great matchup for Michigan State, which has a great defense especially against the run.  Despite the tough schedule, the Spartans rank 38th in the country allowing 330.3 yards per game and only 21.0 points per game.  They only allow 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  They have what it takes to slow down Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, who is one of the best backs in the country.

Michigan State was dreadful last year but still managed to outgain Iowa 349 to 222, or by 127 yards in their meeting as 10-point underdogs in Iowa City.  The Spartans are now one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and coming off their bye week they are primed for one of their best performances of the season.  It will be good enough to not only cover this 6.5-point spread, but likely win this game outright.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* LSU/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and could easily be 6-0.  If they were 6-0, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to LSU.  They outgained Oklahoma State 648 to 385 and found a way to lose in OT.  They ougtgained Texas A&M 379 to 297 and led in the 4th quarter of a 21-17 defeat.

Arkansas has elite numbers this season averaging 485 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 322 yards per game and 5.2 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 163 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.

Based on numbers alone, Arkansas is the better team.  LSU averages 460 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense and allows 372 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play.  And keep in mind the Razorbacks have also played the tougher schedule to this point.

After a grueling 19-14 home win over Tennessee, the Razorbacks needed a bye week after playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They got that bye last week, and now they have had two full weeks to rest and prepare for LSU.  Meanwhile, LSU is coming off a huge OT home win over a short-handed Ole Miss team in which they never led until OT.  This is a clear flat spot for the Tigers now feeling fat and happy off that Ole Miss win.

Each of the last four meetings between Arkansas and LSU were decided by exactly 3 points, so getting 3 points with the Razorbacks alone is a nice value. But this Arkansas team is one of the most improved in the country and ready to pull the upset at home in what will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

25* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado/Arizona OVER 55.5

Colorado is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Buffaloes have gone OVER the total in three consecutive games combining for 69 points with Baylor, 69 with UCF and 59 with Kansas State.  This total of 55.5 is too low for a game against Arizona with perfect weather conditions and a Wildcats team that also profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.

The strength of Colorado is their passing game which ranks 8th in the country at 336.3 yards per game while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  The weakness of Arizona is their defense, which allows 26.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense as potent as this Colorado outfit.  They just allowed 41 points to BYU last week and will be playing for a 4th consecutive week with a tired defense.

But Arizona should have plenty of offensive success against Colorado, which allows 24.3 points per game and has given up 31 to Baylor and 31 to Kansas State this season.  I'd argue this Arizona offense is the best unit they will have faced this season.  The Wildcats average 413.5 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play, including 5.1 yard per carry on the ground and 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  This despite playing three of their last four games against elite defenses in BYU, Utah and Kansas State as well as an improved Texas Tech stop unit.

Arizona beat Colorado 34-31 for 65 combined points last season with a similar total of 56.  They combined for 63 points in 2022 as well.  It should be more of the same here as these two offenses combine for 60-plus points Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Auburn/Missouri ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +4.5

The Auburn Tigers went through the gauntlet to start the season having to play six consecutive weeks without a bye and closing it with games against Cal, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oklahoma and then Georgia.  They needed a bye week, and I expect them to come back refreshed and ready to go against Missouri this week as they head into the 2nd half of their season.

Due to their 2-4 SU record, the Auburn Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have the numbers of a team that should be 5-1 or 6-0.  Auburn ranks 35th in the country at 445 yards per game and 9th at 7.3 yards per play on offense, and 48th in the country at 338 yards per game and 5.0 per play allowed on defense.  That's right, they are outgaining teams by 107 yards per game and a whopping 2.3 yards per play despite being 2-4.  Costly turnovers and poor execution in short-yardage situations are the culprit, and they worked on those situations over their bye week.

Missouri is overrated due to its 5-1 record this season.  They beat Boston College 27-21 as 14.5-point home favorites and Vanderbilt 30-27 as 17.5-point home favorites.  They finally got exposed losing 41-10 at Texas A&M two weeks ago which was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  They were outgained 512 to 254 by the Aggies, or by 258 yards.

Based on the numbers, Auburn is as good as Texas A&M and will expose them again.  Auburn has also played the 36th-ranked schedule while Missouri has played the 111th.  The competition gets a lot tougher for Missouri moving forward after having another easy game against UMass last week.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -6.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are the most improved team in the country.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and would be 6-0 ATS as long as you bet them early in Week 1.  When head coach Curt Cignetti accepted the head coaching job, one of his first stops was Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where the Big Ten Championship Game was being played the next day.

Cignetti went on Big Ten Network and said, "I figured I had to make this trip up here since we'll be playing in this game next year." His team has exuded that confidence all offseason and during the season, and they believe.  The Hoosiers have a great chance to get to 9-0 going into consecutive games against Michigan and Ohio State.

The Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game.  That balance is what makes them so tough to tame.

But the Hoosiers have been equally impressive on the other side of the football.  They rank 14th in scoring defense at 14.8 points per game, 7th in total defense at 255.7 yards per game and 11th at 4.4 yards per play.  Nebraska also has a great defense, but they have benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and they haven't faced an offense nearly as potent as Indiana.

The Huskers are 5-1 SU this season and have benefited from a very soft schedule with five home games against Rutgers, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP, and their lone road game coming against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  This will be by far Nebraska's toughest test of the season Saturday afternoon, and I don't expect them to be able to stay within a TD of the Hoosiers.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Indiana FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 50.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game.  That balance is what makes them so tough to tame.

The Indiana Hoosiers are vastly improved on offense this season thanks to having a 5-star QB in Dylan Raiola.  He is completing 67% of his passes for 1,358 yards with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  He leads a Nebraska offense that averaging 28.0 points per game despite playing several games in tough wind conditions, some poor kicking and some poor red zone executioin.

Raiola and company are going to be forced to try and keep up with Indiana in a shootout.  The Huskers have pretty much held a lead for every second of every game this season and have been able to be methodical on offense.  They won't have that luxury this week because Indiana will get its points.

This is by far the best offense Nebraska has faced as their first six games have come against Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP with five of those six games coming at home, and their lone road game coming at Purdue.  Indiana has good defensive numbers like Nebraska, but that is largely due to the schedule as well having faced Northwestern, Maryland, Charlotte, UCLA, Western Illinois and Florida International.  I would argue Nebraska is the best offense they have faced if it's not Maryland.

The OVER is 5-0 in Indiana's last five games overall with 55 or more combined points in all five including 65 or more in four of them.  This 50.5-point total is very low for a game involving the Hoosiers.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday afternoon with no wind, no rain and temps in the 60's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Miami/Louisville ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the country and have gone 5-0-1 OVER in all games this season with 62 or more combined points in five consecutive games coming in.  Now they are off their bye week and should have even more wrinkles offensively for Louisville this week.

Miami ranks 1st in the country in almost all major offensive categories including scoring (47.7 points per game), total offense (583.8 yards per game), yards per play (8.1) and passing offense (400 passing yards per game).  QB Cam Ward is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for good reason, throwing for 2,219 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground.

Louisville's defense is absolutely gassed right now playing for a 5th consecutive week off four straight games that went down to the wire against Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia.  They were on the field for 82 plays last week against Virginia and allowed 449 yards to their mediocre offense.  They gave up 34 points and 481 total yards to SMU the previous week.  They stand very little chance to slowing down this Miami offense this week.

Louisville will be forced to try to keep pace in a shootout.  The Cardinals have the goods offensively to do just that.  They rank 23rd in scoring at 36.2 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 461.8 yards per game and 14th at 7.2 yards per play.  Miami's defense was exposed in their last two games giving up 34 points to Virginia Tech and 38 to California, which both have mediocre offenses.  This Louisville offense will now be the best the Hurricanes have seen all season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 69, 81 and 79 combined points.  Louisville beat Miami 38-31 on the road last season in a game that saw 956 yards of total offense.  It will be more of the same in this meeting, especially with the forecast being perfect for scoring with no wind or rain and temps in the 60's this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn ML -118

The UConn Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season with their two losses both coming on the road to Maryland and Duke.  They rolled FAU 48-14 and Buffalo 47-3 at home before escaping with a 29-20 win over Temple.  They were a tired team going into that Temple game playing for a 6th consecutive week, and it was a bit of a letdown spot with Wake Forest on deck.

The Huskies got a much-needed bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Wake Forest.  No question they will come back highly motivated with this opportunity to play a team from the ACC, albeit one of the worst teams in the conference.

The spot is a poor one for Wake Forest.  Now it's the Demon Deacons that are the tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week.  They lost 41-38 at home to Louisiana, won 34-30 at NC State and then lost 49-14 at home to Clemson.  After playing those two games that came down to the wire, you could tell how fatigued they were especially defensively against Clemson.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to get up for this non-conference game against UConn, and I don't see them being able to do it.  UConn wants this one more and is in the better spot to get it.

A big reason UConn is so improve this season is thier offense, which averages 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They should be able to get whatever they want offensively against a Wake Forest defense that is one of the worst in the country.  The Demon Deacons rank 119th in scoring defense at 34.0 points per game, 127th at 478 yards per game allowed and 120th at 6.5 yards per play.

The Demon Deacons don't have their usual potent offense this season largely due to having the embattled Hank Bachmeier at quarterback.  They average fewer than 400 yards per game despite playing at the 12th-fasted tempo in college football.  I've never been a fan of Bachmeier dating back to his Boise State days.  UConn has an improved defense that allows 21.7 points per game, 339 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Huskies will get enough stops to preserve the lead.  Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Oregon/Purdue FOX No-Brainer on Purdue +28.5

I was waiting for a 28 this week to back Purdue and we finally got it, and an even better 28.5 at Circa which I have released to premium clients as of Thursday.  This is a terrible spot for the Oregon Ducks, and I like what I saw from the Boilermakers last week enough to pull the trigger.

Oregon is in the flat spot of all flat spots.  The Ducks are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, upsetting Ohio State 32-31 at home as 3.5-point underdogs to take a commanding lead in the Big Ten title race.  They are fat and happy, and they are primed for a letdown here against Purdue.

The Boilermakers switched quarterbacks last week and head coach Ryan Walters took over play-calling duties to try and save his job.  It worked wonders as the Boilermakers looked like a new team, taking Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 (OT) loss as 22.5-point road underdogs.

Freshman Ryan Browne made his first collegiate start at QB and threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 118 yards against what is a very good Illinois defense.  I think Browne gives this team new life, and his dual-threat ability will keep the Boilermakers coming for four quarters against Oregon this week.

Walters expressed frustration to his players about media calling out his team for quitting, and they responded. "I just talked to them about, I don't care what you're doing in life, where you're at, what your occupation is.  As a man, don't ever let the perception be that you quit when things got tough or that you quit when adversity hits.  In life, as in football, adversity is guaranteed. At a bare minimum it should be that you fight" Walters said.

Oregon's two road games have been short trips to Corvalis to face Oregon State and to Los Angeles to face UCLA.  This should be their toughest road test of the season, especially given the flat spot and the short week.  They aren't exactly keeping the foot on the gas offensively scoring 37 or fewer points in five of their six games, and if they don't top that number it's going to be very hard for them to cover this massive 28.5-point spread.  Plus, they will likely be without their best pass rusher in Jordan Burch, who suffered a knee injury.

Purdue has a bye on deck next week so they should be 'all in' here, plus I'm not worried about them being flat coming off an OT loss to Illinois considering it's a Top 5 Oregon team coming to town.  They are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and I think it will be much closer than this 28.5-point spread would indicate.  Bet Purdue Friday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State -2.5

The Sam Houston State Bearkats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They had a rude awakening in their first season at the FBS level last season, but they are one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2.

Sam Houston State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road to UCF.  They have four blowout wins all by 18 points or more, plus an impressive 40-39 upset win as 11.5-point underdogs over Texas State, which many felt would win the Sun Belt and possibly make the 12-team playoff this season.

Now the Bearkats will be motivated to prove they are a C-USA contender by taking down one of the favorites to win the conference in Western Kentucky tonight.  I like this WKU team, but this is a terrible spot for them as the Hilltoppers will be at a big rest disadvantage.

Indeed, Sam Houston State is coming off a bye week and last play on October 3rd, while Western Kentucky had to play UTEP on October 10th and only has five days in between games to get ready.  I fully expect the Bearkats to put to use this rest and preparation advantage, plus it should be a pretty hostile atmosphere in their favor with fans excited about this team after their 5-1 start.

Sam Houston has a big advantage on defense allowing 338 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, while WKU allows 385.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  It's pretty much a toss up offensively with Sam Houston averaging 401 yards per game and 5.5 per play while WKU averages 399 yards per game and 5.8 per play.

The big advantages the Bearkats have in rest, preparation, defense and home field should lead them to winning this game by a field goal or more to cover this short 2.5-point spread tonight.  Bet Sam Houston State Wednesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii +21.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of hype right now with a 4-1 start and their lone loss coming to Oregon.  RB Ashton Jeanty is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as well.  With all this hype comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to, and I'll play against them and side with the value on home underdog Hawaii catching more than three touchdowns as a result.

This is a tough spot for Boise State playing for a 4th consecutive week and now having to travel the the island.  Their last three games were at home, and now they have to go on the road where they barely beat Georgia Southern 56-45 and lost to Oregon in their other two road games.

Hawaii is 2-1 at home this season with a 3-point loss to UCLA in their lone defeat.  The Warriors are the much fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before losing 27-24 at San Diego State last week.  QB Brayden Schager is coming off his two best games of the season throwing for 374 yards and 4 TD in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa at home and throwing for 272 yards and 3 TD in that loss to San Diego State last week.

Hawaii actually has the better defense in this game.  The Warriors are only allowing 309.4 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have been very good against the run, allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack.

Boise State's defense leaves a lot to be desired and is the clear weakness of the team.  The Broncos allow 402.6 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have been horrible against the pass, allowing 278.8 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for the Warriors with their ability to throw the ball on offense and stop the run on defense.  They will never be out of this game.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.