20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -2.5

Miami and Ball State both sit at 5-6 this season with a chance to go to a bowl game with a win Tuesday night.  I'll gladly side with the Miami Redhawks, who are the better team and are at home here, so this line should be above Miami -3.

The Miami Redhawks kept their bowl hopes alive with a 29-23 win at Northern Illinois last week and have now won two of their last three games.  Ball State has lost two consecutive games and couldn't even beat Ohio last week after the Bobcats lost their starting QB in the first half.  They lost 32-18 and still gave up 429 yards even after Ohio lost the best QB in the back in Rourke.  The Cardinals are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to make a bowl game and aren't handling well, while the Redhawks are handling it well with a veteran head coach in Chuck Martin who has been here before.

This is a great matchup for Miami Ohio.  Both teams want to run the football.  Ball State averages 152 rushing yards per game but only 5.8 yards per pass attempt.  Miami Ohio averages 146 rushing yards per game and 6.7 yards per attempt.  I think these offenses are pretty evenly matched as Ball State averages 5.2 yards per play while Miami averages 5.1 per play.

The difference is defense.  Miami Ohio has by far the best unit on the field in its defense.  The Redhawks only allow 23.0 points per game while the Cardinals allow 27.7 points per game.  Miami allows 369 yards per game while Ball State allows 406 yards per game.  But the biggest key is these teams' ability to stop the run.  Miami only allows 124 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry, while Ball State allows 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  Miami is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.

Miami owns Ball State, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Redhawks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games.  Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Miami.  Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +22

Jay Norvell quietly has this Colorado State team on the improve.  They have gone 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are catching too many points here against Air Force.  Asking the Falcons to win this game by more than three touchdowns to beat us is asking too much.

Colorado State has only lost one of its last six games by more than 12 points, and that was a road loss at Boise State against a Broncos team that is clearly the class of the conference.  They beat Hawaii and Nevada, only lost by 4 to Utah State, outgained San Jose State 468 to 355 in a 12-point road loss as 23.5-point dogs, and outgained Wyoming 372 to 256 in a 1-point loss as 8.5-point dogs.  So they have outgained Wyoming and San Jose State by a cobmined 249 yards the last two weeks, which is a massive improvement for this team.

Air Force plays a triple-option style that makes it hard for them to cover big spreads.  They run the clock by keeping it on the ground.  After covering against New Mexico as 21-point favorites last week, the books have set the number even higher this week, which is a mistake.  New Mexico is the worst team in the Mountain West.  Colorado State would crush New Mexico right now.

Colorado State has been respectable against the run this season allowing 155 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  They can hold Air Force in check enough to cover this number.  Air Force is going to have a hard time scoring enough points to cover this number.  They only average 29.5 points per game this season.

Air Force hasn't beaten Colorado State by more than 21 points in any of their last nine meetings, making for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Rams pertaining to this 22-point spread.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Jay Norvell is 15-4 ATS off a conference loss as a head coach.  Roll with Colorado State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky/Auburn OVER 52

This is my favorite total this week in college football.  It's a non-conference game with Western Kentucky visiting Auburn.  These teams never play each other so there is no familiarity.  That favors the offenses.

Western Kentucky has played 11 games this season.  10 of their 11 games have seen 52 or more combined points, which is what this total is.  The only game that didn't reach 52 was against a good UAB defense who was playing with a backup QB after losing their starter early.

Auburn is coming off a 13-10 home win over Texas A&M, which has one of the worst offenses in the country.  I think that low-scoring game is providing us with value on the OVER this week.  Auburn games had seen 52 or more combined points in four consecutive games prior to the Texas A&M game.

Also providing value is the fact that Western Kentucky has gone under the total in six consecutive games.  They have had totals of 61 or higher in 10 of their 11 games this season.  Now this is their lowest total of the season by far.  The weather looks good in Auburn with temps in the 50's and only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday.

Western Kentucky should be able to throw all over this Auburn defense, while Auburn should be able to manhandle this WKU defense and get whatever they want on the ground.  The Hilltoppers average 336 passing yards per game, and the Tigers have averaged 255 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  Western Kentucky has allowed at least 161 rushing yards per five of their last six games.

The OVER is 8-2 in Western Kentucky's last 10 non-conference games.  The OVER is 7-3 in Auburn's last 10 non-conference games.  The OVER is 10-1 in WKU's last 11 road games after outgaining their last opponent by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games.  The OVER is 20-5 in WKU's last 25 games after scoring 37 or more points in two consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas/Kansas OVER 63.5

This total has been set lower than it should be due to Texas playing a 17-10 defensive battle in windy conditions against TCU last week.  Texas had scored 34 or more points in seven of its previous nine games with the exceptions being against very good Alabama and Iowa State defenses.  They will hang a big number on Kansas this week.

Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 6-4 in their 10 games this season with combined scores of 53-plus points in nine of their 10 games this season with the lone exception being Iowa State and their top-ranked defense.  They have combined with their opponents for 62 or more points in seven of their 10 games this season.

Texas has a poor pass defense that Kansas can exploit this week.  The Longhorns have allowed at least 329 passing yards in three of their last four games.  Kansas has a poor defense overall.  They allow 30.4 points per game and 443.7 yards per game and aren't good at stopping the run or the pass, allowing 168 rush yards per game and 276 pass yards per game.

If the last two meetings between these teams are any indication, this will be another shootout.  Kansas won 57-56 last season for 113 combined points with a total of 61.5.  Two meetings back Texas won 50-48 for 98 combined points and a 64-point total.  This total has been set in a similar range again this year at 63.5, and oddsmakers are once again making a mistake, largely due to Texas playing in a low-scoring game last week.

The OVER is 22-10-1 in Jayhawks last 33 games overall.  The OVER is 20-7-1 in Jayhawks last 28 games following a loss.  Both teams are bowl eligible and both teams can't win the Big 12.  So I expect both defenses to relax in this one and for the offenses to take center stage, which are the strengths of both these teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8

Southern Miss went 3-9 last season and was as decimated by injuries as any team in the country.  The Golden Eagles have had better health this season and sit at 5-5 with an excellent chance to make a bowl game.  They will be highly motivated to punch their ticket to a bowl game this week in their final home game on Senior Day.

I liked what I saw from Southern Miss QB Trey Lowe last week against Coastal Carolina in a 23-26 road loss as 5-point dogs.  Lowe threw for 295 yards and a touchdown in a loss in what was his best game of the season.  He and Frank Gore Jr. (788 rushing yards, 5 TD) can keep them in this game against South Alabama.

After all, South Alabama has had a hard time getting margin this season, so asking them to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much.  This is a Southern Miss team that only has three losses by more than 3 points this season.  I think South Alabama is getting too much respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall against three bad teams in Arkansas State, Texas State and Georgia Southern.  

South Alabama is 8-2 this season, but it has just one win against a team that is .500 or better this season, and that was a 20-17 win over Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5).  The Jaguars have benefitted from playing the 129th-ranked schedule in the country.  To compare, Southern Miss has played the 86th-ranked schedule, having to face Tulane, Miami and Liberty in the non-conference.  They upset Tulane and only lost by 2 to Liberty.

I love a good defensive home underdog, and that's what we're getting with the Golden Eagles.  Southern Miss only allows 24.5 points per game, 377.6 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  Their defense can keep them in this game while Lowe and Gore make enough plays on offense to keep this one close for four quarters.

South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 November road games.  The Jaguars are 2-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win by 17 points or more.  South Alabama is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games following a win.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +15.5

Louisiana-Monroe kept their bowl hopes alive with a 31-28 upset win at Georgia State last week.  They had a 4th quarter comeback and now have a ton of momentum heading into this week against Troy.  They would love nothing more than to upset Troy and hand them their first conference loss this season to stay alive for a bowl before hosting Southern Miss next week.

Louisiana-Monroe has been hanging around in every conference game.  They are 3-3 in conference play with the three losses by 7, 7 and 17 points.  The two 7-point losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in Coastal Carolina and South Alabama, so they have proven they can hang with the big boys.  They will hang with Troy, too.

After all, Troy hasn't been getting margin against anyone.  The Trojans are 8-2 this season but they have just two wins by more than 9 points.  Those were against Southern Miss by 17 and Alabama A&M by 21.  They only beat Army by 1, Texas State by 3, Louisiana by 6, South Alabama by 4, WKU by 7 and Marshall by 9.  It's asking a lot of them to get margin here against a motivated Louisiana-Monroe team.

The Trojans have been fortunate the last two weeks to escape with victories.  They needed a 17-0 comeback in the 2nd half to beat Louisiana 23-17.  They barely beat Army 10-9 last week.  They can't be trusted as this big of a favorite with such a poor offense.  The Trojans are scoring just 20.2 points per game in conference plays.  It's going to be tough to cover this 15.5-point spread by scoring only 20 points.

Louisiana-Monroe has a passing attack that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They complete 68% of their passes this season and average 8.0 yards per attempt.  They also have decent balance rushing for 127 yards per game, so it's not like they are predictable.  Troy is extremely predictable on offense, rushing for juts 99 yards per game and 3.1 per carry compared to 274 passing yards per game.

Last year Louisiana-Monroe upset Troy 29-16 as 23.5-point home underdogs.  And that was a way worse ULM team than this one in Year 2 under Terry Bowden.  This team is on the improve.  No question Troy is improved too, but they have simply been fortunate in close games.  And Troy has all the pressure on them trying to win a conference title.  Bowden is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as a head coach.  Bowden is 10-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as a head coach.

ULM is 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings with only one loss by more than 8 points.  The Warhawks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games on turf.  Troy is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 home games following three or more consecutive UNDERS.  The Trojans are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after playing a home game.  Troy is getting way too much credit for its 8-2 record and home-field advantage in this one.  This game will go down to the wire just like most Troy games have this season.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona +4.5

I love the spot for Arizona this week.  The Wildcats kept their bowl hopes alive by pulling off the 34-28 upset win at UCLA as 20-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about that victory.  Now they sit at 4-6 on the season with two very winnable home games against Washington State and Arizona State to finish the season.  There will be no letdown following that UCLA win knowing they are so close to getting to a bowl, which would be huge for second-year head coach Jedd Fisch and these players considering they haven't been to a bowl since 2017.

This is a letdown spot for their opponent instead.  Washington State just clinched a bowl berth, getting to 6-4 with a 28-18 home win over Arizona State last week.  It's also a sandwich spot with the Apple Cup on deck against Washington next week.  I don't see the Cougars being motivated at all to go into Arizona and win this game this week given the spot.

Washington State is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State/West Virginia UNDER 54.5

Kansas State just wants to get into West Virginia and get out with a win.  The Wildcats control their own destiny to make the Big 12 Championship Game.  They aren't concerned about running up the score.  They are going to rely on their running game and defense to go in and get a win, and I look for this to be a defensive struggle as a result.

Kansas State has the best running game and one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  They rush for 215 yards per game and hold opponents to 17.5 points per game.  West Virginia has an average offense that averages just 5.5 yards per play.  They showed they could win a defensive struggle last week in a 23-20 victory over Oklahoma at home.  WVU likes to run the ball too averaging 37 rushing attempts per game compared to 40 for Kansas State.

It will be cold and windy at West Virginia with the forecast calling for 30 degrees and 15 MPH winds at kickoff.  Both teams want to run the ball anyway, and they will want to run it even more with it being windy.  This has been a low-scoring series as it is.  Indeed, each of the last nine meetings between Kansas State and West Virginia have seen 51 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 54.5-point total.  Enough said.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UMass +33.5

The UMass Minutemen have quietly been very competitive here of late.  They haven't lost a game by more than 28 points since Week 2 at Toledo and Week 1 at Tulane in a 32-point loss.  That includes a 7-point loss to Eastern Michigan, an 18-point loss to Liberty and a 2-point loss to Arkansas State.  The Minutemen won't be losing by five touchdowns Saturday, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

Texas A&M may not be able to score 35 points in this one.  In fact, they haven't scored more than 31 points in any game this season.  It is a lost season for the Aggies as they sit at 3-7 following six consecutive losses.  How motivated do you really think they are to be playing this game against UMass this weekend?  The answer is not at all.  So lacking the motivation will make it tough for them to cover this big of a number.  It will be a sleepy 12 PM EST start time and I don't expect many fans to turn out for this game at all, so there will be zero home-field advantage.

Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games coming in.  UMass can run the ball averaging 160 rushing yards per game this season.  Texas A&M allows 221 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  The Minutemen are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. SEC opponents.  Roll with UMass Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +16.5

This is a terrible spot for UCF this week.  They are coming off three straight wins that went down to the wire, a 25-21 win over Cincinnati, a 35-28 win at Memphis and a 38-31 win at Tulane.  They will now be playing for a 7th consecutive week and I don't think they have much gas left in the tank here.

This is the ideal letdown spot for UCF now taking a step down in class against Navy.  UCF is guaranteed to go to the AAC Championship Game as long as they win one of their next two games against Navy or South Florida.  They hold the tiebreaker over Tulane and Cincinnati, and those two play each other next week so one of them is guaranteed to have two losses.  Knowing UCF has AAC bottom feeder USF on deck next week if need be will have them relaxing this week.

UCF won't have its normal home-field advantage this week with this game starting at 11:00 AM EST Saturday morning.  It won't be nearly as rowdy as it would be at night.  I expect a sleepy start to the game for UCF, and that will keep Navy in this game early which will be important.  The Midshipmen can control the clock with their triple-option rushing attack and stay in this game for four quarters because of it.

Navy has no quit in them.  They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes a 3-point loss at ECU as a 17.5-point underdog, a 3-point loss at Air Force as a 14-point dog, a 6-point loss at SMU as a 12-point dog, a 10-point loss at Cincinnati as 18.5-point dogs, and a 3-point loss to Notre Dame as 17-point dogs.  If they can take all of those teams to the wire, they can certainly take UCF to the wire.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less.  UCF won 31-21 as a 10-point favorite, won 35-24 as a 23.5-point favorite and lost outright last year 34-30 as a 15-point favorite.  Navy ran for 348 yards on UCF last year and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes.  That will be the key to success again this season.  Navy knows they have the next two weeks off before playing Army, so they will put everything into trying to win this game.

UCF relies heavily on its rushing attack averaging 250 rushing yards per game.  That makes this a great matchup for Navy, which only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  They have allowed 66 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games, which includes Notre Dame and Cincinnati.  Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per rush.

UCF is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored.  Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  The Midshipmen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play.  These five trends combine for a 41-2 system backing the Midshipmen.  Take Navy Saturday.

20* SDSU/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State -14

The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season.  They are just one game back in the MWC West division and still alive for the title, so there will be no letdown spot for them this week.  And I look for them to continue their great play with a blowout victory over lowly New Mexico.

San Diego State is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs.  They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes.  They blew a 28-10 lead.

They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back.  UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted last week too.  But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season last week in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team.  They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win.

San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback.  He is completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,253 yards with an 8-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over.  Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 171 yards and three scores at 3.7 per attempt.  He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 61 more against San Jose State last time out.  

The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in three of their last five games. They still have a very good defense and do every year.  They rank 38th in total defense at 353.1 yards per game and 38th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game.  They are 24th against the run, allowing 117.8 yards per game on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing New Mexico.

The Lobos don't move the football well, but when they do they do it almost exlusively on the ground.  The Lobos rank 129th in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game and 131st in total offense at 238.0 yards per game.  They average 128.8 rushing yards per game and 109.2 passing yards per game.  Simply put, they are dreadful on offense.

New Mexico is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall with seven consecutive losses by double-digits.  I question how much this team even wants to play out the rest of the season considering they keep getting blasted week after week, so motivation is not on their side in this one.  San Diego State has won eight consecutive meetings with New Mexico, including a 31-7 victory last year as a 19.5-point favorite.  The Aztecs have held the Lobos to 263 or fewer yards in four consecutive meetings.

San Diego State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Lobos are 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games overall.  New Mexico is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

20* SMU/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

The SMU Mustangs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have scored 40 or more points in four of their last five games while averaging 46.0 points per game during this stretch.  And we have a total of only 64.5 here against Tulane Thursday night.  The Mustangs are also allowing 38.0 points per game in their last seven games, so it's not like they are stopping anyone.

Tulane has a very good offense this season averaging 32.7 points per game.  They also have a good defense, but they've played a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  The Green Wave were exposed last week in a 38-31 loss to UCF.  They allowed 475 total yards to the Knights in the shootout loss.

Plays in shootouts is nothing new for these teams.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Last year they combined for 81 points after combining for 71 points two seasons ago.  In fact, SMU and Tulane have combined for at least 66 points in six of their last nine meetings.  And we only need 65 here to cash this total.  The weather looks good for this one with temps in the 50's and 3 MPH winds with a 5% chance of precipitation.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State -7.5

Eastern Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth with a lackluster 34-28 win at Akron last week.  Now bowl eligible, the Eagles will be flat this week.  No question Kent State (4-6) will be more motivated as this is not only to keep their bowl hopes alive, but it's also Senior Night for the Golden Flashes.  I expect them to win in a blowout.

This is one of those rare times where the team with a worse record by two or more games is actually the better team.  Kent State has played the 78th-ranked schedule in the country while Eastern Michigan has played the 130th.  That's 52 spots' difference for two teams in the same conference.  That is the only reason Eastern Michigan has a better record than Kent State.

Amazingly, despite playing the tougher schedule that has included Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia, the Golden Flashes still have the better stats than the Eagles.  Kent State is only getting outgained by 10 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play.  Eastern Michigan is getting outgained by 38 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.

It has been real ugly for the Eagles of late.  They lost by 29 to Northern Illinois and were outgained by 184 yards.  They did beat Ball State by 4 and outgained them by 56 yards.  But then they were outgained by 157 yards by Toledo and by 41 yards by lowly Akron.  The Eagles are really struggling offensively, averaging just 284 yards per game in their last four games.  Kent State is coming off a 40-6 win at Bowling Green and I don't think Eastern Michigan is any better than Bowling Green.

Eastern Michigan is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.  Kent State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after allowing 9 points or less last game.  The Eagles are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games following a win.  The Golden Flashes are the better team by a couple notches and they will simply want it more tonight.  Take Kent State Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green +16

Toledo clinched a share of the MAC West Division title and is locked into the MAC Championship Game on December 3rd in Detroit.  They hold the tiebreakers over Ball State, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan with head-to-head victories over all three.  They have nothing to play for but pride Tuesday night when they host Bowling Green.  That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 16-point spread with questionable motivation.

Bowling Green needs one more victory to become bowl eligible.  They are the team with more to play for sitting at 5-5 this season.  The Falcons also still have a shot to win the MAC East.  They are one game behind Ohio and play the Bobcats next week.  So they have so much to play for right now with everything still in front of them.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off their 40-6 loss to Kent State last week.  That loss was an aberration as they had won three consecutive games prior to that defeat over Miami Ohio, Central Michigan and Western Michigan.  That result has provided us with some extra line value this week against Toledo.

The Rockets would have a hard time covering this number even if they were fully motivated.  After all, they haven't been getting margin the last three weeks.  They lost outright to Buffalo 34-27 as 7-point road favorites, barely beat Eastern Michigan 27-24 as 4-point road favorites, and needed a late touchdown to beat Ball State 28-21 as 13.5-point home favorites.

Bowling Green is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games following two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  Jason Candle is 4-14 ATS off a conference home win as the coach of Toledo.  The Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +14

Death, taxes and Cal's Justin Wilcox as an underdog.  Wilcox is 24-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of California.  He is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Cal.  He is also 7-0 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as the coach of Cal.  I'll take these two never lost systems to the bank Saturday with Cal +14 at Oregon State.

The Golden Bears are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate this season.  All six losses came by 19 points or fewer so they were competitive in every game.  That includes a 7-point loss at Notre Dame as 13.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Washington as 7.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss at USC last week as 21.5-point dogs.  They have proven they can play with the big boys in this conference.

Now they actually take a step down in class this week against Oregon State, which has no business laying 14 points to Cal this week.  The Beavers are coming off a misleading 21-24 loss at Washington in which they should have lost by more.  They were outgained by 136 yards by the Huskies.  The only teams Oregon State have outgained by more than 83 yards this season are Boise State in Week 1, Montana State and Colorado.

California is 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oregon State with all three losses coming by 4 points or less.  The Golden Bears are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games as road dogs of 10.5 to 14 points.  Take California Saturday.

15* UNC/Wake Forest ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.  They have lost two consecutive games to fall to 6-3 this season.  Both were misleading as they committed a combined 11 turnovers to give the games away to Louisville and NC State, both on the road.  Now they are back home for a Saturday night game and will be highly motivated to get back in the win column and hand rival UNC their first conference loss of the season.

Wake Forest is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with its lone loss coming to Clemson in overtime.  Now they face one of the luckiest teams in the country in the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are 8-1 this season while going 5-0 in games decided by one score.  That includes wins over App State by 2, Georgia State by 7, Miami by 3, Duke by 3 and Virginia by 3.  That was a Virginia team missing their starting RB and their top three receivers last week.  UNC's luck runs out this week.

Now the Tar Heels take a big step up in class this week as this will be their toughest test of the season.  UNC's suspect defense will finally get exposed this week, similar to when Notre Dame beat them 45-32 to hand the Tar Heels their first loss of the season.  They gave up 576 total yards to a suspect Fighting Irish offense.  The Tar Heels are allowing 31.0 points per game, 457.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  Their defense simply cannot be trusted, and will struggle to get any stops against a Wake Forest offense that is averaging 42.8 points per game at home this season.

Wake Forest also wants revenge from two heartbreaking losses to UNC the last two seasons both on the road by 6 and 3 points.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  The home team is also 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wake Forest is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games.  UNC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following a conference game.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Kansas State/Baylor FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -2.5

Baylor is 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS this season and very close to being undefeated.  Their three losses came to BYU (OT), Oklahoma State despite outgaining them by 78 yards and the Cowboys were off a bye week and out for revenge from the Big 12 Championship, plus a fluky 3-point loss at WVU in which they outgained the Mountaineers by 90 yards and their QB got hurt.

Baylor has since gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS after that loss to WVU and is playing its best football of the season.  The Bears beat Kansas 35-23 as 10.5-point favorites in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Jayhawks by 149 yards.  They crushed Texas Tech 45-17 on the road then upset Oklahoma 38-35 on the road.  The Bears are now in position to get back to the Big 12 title game and will be motivated to do so by taking down Kansas State this week.

Baylor is a better team than Kansas State plus has home-field advantage, so the Bears should be more than only 2.5-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have lost to the two best teams in the conference outside of Baylor in TCU and Texas.  Baylor could very well be the best team in the conference again this season as I stated before they could easily be 9-0.

What makes Baylor so good is that they win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  That's the advantage K-State usually has over teams.  They won't have that advantage this week.  Baylor also has the better quarterback and skill position players.  The Bears average 211 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, while allowing just 127 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.

Texas just rushed for 269 yards on Kansas State last week and compiled 466 total yards.  TCU also rushed for 218 yards on Kansas State and racked up 498 total yards.  This clearly isn't a very good Kansas State defense, and their offense is very predictable.  Stop their running game and you stop Kansas State because they struggle throwing the football.  They only average 201 passing yards per game.

Baylor is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  This is a 7:00 EST game so it will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal for the Bears.  Roll with Baylor Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +31

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have not given up on their season under interim head coach Mickey Joseph.  They have gone 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and were competitive in all three losses.  They beat Indiana and Rutgers and only lost by 6 at Purdue as 14-point dogs and 7 at Minnesota as 15-point dogs.  They lost by 17 to Illinois as 7.5-point dogs as well.

Look for them to give Michigan more of a fight than they bargained for Saturday.  After all, Nebraska only lost 29-32 at home to Michigan last season.  That's a Michigan team that went on to make the four-team playoff.  Speaking of, the Wolverines know they just need to keep winning to make the four-team playoff again.  They don't need style points as they are already ranked No. 3 in the four-team playoff.  They just need to get to Ohio State in the final week of the season, which means get in and get out with victories against Nebraska and Illinois the next two weeks.  They aren't worried about getting margin.

Michigan is also coming off a misleading 52-17 win at Rutgers last week that has this number inflated.  They were 25.5-point favorites in that game and actually trailed at halftime.  But a string of Rutgers turnovers, punts and defensive touchdowns by Michigan had that game spiraling out of control in a hurry.  Nebraska will put up a lot more resistance and can't be 31-point dogs when Rutgers were 25.5-point dogs.  The Huskers will be the more motivated team as they are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and they want revenge from that 3-point defeat last year.

Nebraska is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game.  Take Nebraska Saturday.

15* Alabama/Ole Miss CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +12.5

This is the first time in a long time I can remember Alabama not having a shot to make the four-team playoff at this point in the season.  They have two losses, and a two-loss team is not getting into the four-team playoff.  That will be a hard pill to swallow for these Alabama players and head coach Nick Saban.  I question their motivation the rest the way, especially this week.

The Crimson Tide just lost 32-31 (OT) on a two-point conversion to LSU last week for their second loss.  That was the 'dream crusher' loss for the Crimson Tide, who unlike last year don't have a path to the four-team playoff now.  There usually tends to be a hangover effect the game after suffering the 'dream crusher' loss.

Now Alabama is being asked to go on the road and win by two touchdowns against Ole Miss to cover this 12.5-point spread.  It's an Ole Miss team that is well rested coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Alabama.  That is a huge advantage.  It's also an Ole Miss team sitting at 8-1 this season and with a legitimate chance to make the four-team playoff if they run the table.  The Rebels are the team with more to play for right now, and they'll be the more motivated team as a result.

Ole Miss is 5-0 at home this season with its lone loss coming on the road at LSU.  The Rebels were at least competitive with Alabama the past two seasons and are looking to get over the hump with an upset victory this time around.  This is their best chance as Alabama's defense is nowhere near as good as it has been in years' past.  They gave up 52 points to Tennessee and 32 points to LSU in two of their last three games coming in.

The Crimson Tide have always struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks.  Well, Tennessee and LSU both have dual-threats in Hooker and Daniels, and Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart is in that same mold.  He has thrown for 1,912 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 473 yards and 5.9 per carry this season.  He leads a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 37.4 points per game, 495 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  Ole Miss is only allowing 21.6 points per game on defense, not far behind the 18.3 points per game that Alabama gives up.

Plays against road teams (Alabama) - an excellent offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1992.  The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rebels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Alabama.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico +22

New Mexico defensive coordinator Rocky Long is the king of defending the triple-option having seen it throughout his career.  He is one of the best in the business, and he will have this underrated New Mexico defense ready to stop Air Force's triple-option.

This total is just 37 in some places.  So getting 22 points in a game that is expected to be low-scoring is too much.  Points become more valuable when the total is this low.  The Lobos are coming off a misleading 10-27 loss at Utah State as 14.5-point dogs which was a brutal beat for New Mexico backers.  I would know since I was on them.

New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime but got outscored 20-0 in the second half only after a defensive touchdown on a fumble in the final few minutes.  The Lobos were only outgained by 22 yards by the Aggies.  It was the third time this season they have given up a defensive touchdown at the end of the game that cost them the cover, which makes their stats misleading and those three non-offensive touchdowns count against their defense.

Even with them, New Mexico is only giving up 25.1 points per game, 344.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  They are very good against the run, which is key here.  They give up just 136 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  They can hold Air Force in check which will allow them to cover this inflated number despite averaging just 16.0 points per game on offense.

This is a bad spot for Air Force.  They just won the Commander In Chief trophy for the first time in six years after a 13-7 win over Army last week.  They also beat Navy 13-10.  I could see this game being as ugly as those two games, which again favors New Mexico catching all these points.  Keep in mind Air Force lost 27-34 to Utah State and gave up 417 yards while getting outgained by 57 yards by Aggies which gives these teams a common opponent.

Air Force is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  The Falcons are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games after scoring 3 points or fewer in the first half of last game.  Air Force is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Lobos are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* Louisville/Clemson ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +7

Louisville is quietly 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall and getting better with each game.  The Cardinals started this run with a 34-17 win at Virginia as 2-point dogs.  They came back with a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.  They followed it up with a 48-21 upset home win over Wake Forest as 3-point dogs.

But last week might have been the most impressive of them all.  Facing a clear sandwich and lookahead spot off the win against Wake Forest and with Clemson on deck, the Cardinals avoided the letdown with a 34-10 win over a James Madison team that was coming off their bye week.  They dominated the game, outgaining the Dukes 467 to 193, or by 274 total yards.  That effort shows a lot about the character of this team.

Now the Cardinals aren't about to let up as they will be even more excited to try and upset Clemson this week.  And this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  The Tigers just suffered their first loss of the season in a 14-35 loss at Notre Dame last week.  Now they almost certainly won't be making the four-team playoff even if they win out.  That's the kind of 'dream crusher' loss that can beat a team twice.  I question whether or not Clemson will be able to get back up off the mat.

You could see a loss coming for Clemson a mile away, though.  They have barely been getting by all season.  They needed OT to beat Wake Forest by 6, only beat NC State by 10, only beat FSU by 6 and only beat Syracuse by 6.  That's four games that went down to the wire.  I think this one will too.  Louisville wants revenge from a 24-30 loss to Clemson last year in which they were stopped at the goal line in the final seconds.  I think this is a one-score game again either way, so there's a ton of value catching 7 points.

AP Top 5 teams the previous week that are coming off a loss are covering just 39.3% of the time since 2010, 36.2% of the time if a favorite of -7 or higher, 31.9% of the time if they scored 37 or fewer points, and 26.3% of the time they gained under 300 yards.  Clemson was manhandled by Notre Dame giving up 263 rushing yards.  They only managed 281 yards of offense in the loss.  These trends just go to show the impact of the 'dream crusher' scenario.  There tends to be a hangover effect.

Clemson is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points.  Clemson is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +6

I've been riding North Texas and I'm going to continue to do so this weekend.  The Mean Green are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and have been grossly undervalued.  They lost by 10 at Memphis as 13-point dogs, upset FAU by 17 as 3-point dogs, crushed LA Tech by 20 as 6.5-point favorites, only lost at UTSA by 4 as 10-point dogs, upset WKU by 27 as 10-point road dogs and crushed FIU by 38 as 21.5-point favorites.

North Texas is in control of its own destiny.  Win out and they will go to the C-USA Championship Game, so they have a lot to play for.  Now the Mean Green are catching 6 points to a UAB team that is going to have a hard time getting motivated for this game Saturday.  The Blazers have lost three consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion all by one score.

You could see the problems coming with a lackluster 34-20 win as 21.5-point favorites against lowly Charlotte to start their current 0-4 ATS stretch.  They lost QB Dylan Hopkins early in a 17-20 loss at Western Kentucky.  They are upset 17-24 at FAU with a backup QB.  And last week they lost 38-44 (Double OT) to UTSA, which was their last gasp chance to stay alive in the C-USA title race.

Now the Blazers sit at 4-5 on the season and only playing for a bowl game.  This is a team that is used to being in conference title contention.  That dream crusher lost last week to UTSA will have a hangover effect here.  Plus, they are tired already playing for a 7th consecutive week, not to mention coming off a double-OT game.  And they still may be without QB Dylan Hopkins, who has been questionable each of the last two weeks and hasn't played.  They may not be in a hurry to get him back now that they are out of title contention.

Even if UAB was fully healthy, I would think there is value on North Texas catching 6 points.  They have an elite offense that averages 37.2 points per game, 503 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They are never out of any game due to their dynamic offense.  The defense has been respectable too allowing 5.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 per play, so this is at least an average stop unit.

North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  UAB is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games.  The Mean Green are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Roll with North Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Connecticut +14.5

I cashed on Liberty in their 21-19 upset win at Arkansas as 14.5-point underdogs last week.  But now I'm going against them as this a letdown spot for the Flames off their biggest win of the season.  They did not deserve to win that game when you look at the box score.  They were outgained by 113 yards by the Razorbacks.  That misleading score is providing us extra line value to fade the Flames this week.

I want Liberty as an underdog.  I don't want them as a favorite.  Just three games back Liberty only beat Gardner Webb 21-20 as a 24.5-point favorite.  The Flames won by 18 at UMass as 22.5-point favorties the game prior.  They only beat Akron by 9 as 26-point favorites earlier this season as well.  They were in dog fights with Gardner Webb, UMass and Akron.  That's an FCS team and two of the worst teams in FBS.

UConn is no longer one of the worst teams in FBS.  The Huskies have quietly gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and are one win away from bowl eligibility.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six gmaes overall as they have consistently been undervalued.  That includes an upset over Fresno State as a 23-point underdog and an upset of Boston College as an 8-point dog.  They can hang with Liberty considering they will be the more motivated team with the Flames in this massive letdown spot.  Take Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Navy +15.5

This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 35-14 upset home win over Clemson last week to hand the Tigers their first loss of the season.  Amazingly, this has been a trend for the Fighting Irish all season as they have played to the level of their competition, and that will be the case again this week.

The Fighting Irish are 5-4 ATS this season.  Their five covers have come against the five best teams they have faced in Ohio State, UNC, BYU, Syracuse and Clemson.  Their four non-covers came against the worst four teams they faced in Marshall, Cal, Stanford and UNLV.  They lost outright as double-digits favorites to Stanford (-16.5) and Marshall (-20.5) and only beat Cal (-13.5) by 7.

Now the Fighting Irish are massive 15.5-point favorites at Navy in this clear letdown spot off the win over Clemson.  This is a Navy team that just gave Cincinnati all it wanted in a 20-10 loss as 18.5-point road dogs last week.  The Midshipmen are now looking at this as their National Championship Game this week and they'll clearly be the more motivated team.  Once again, Notre Dame will think it just has to show up to win and will play down to the level of its competition.

I love the matchup for Navy as well.  Notre Dame cannot throw the ball right now.  They only had 116 passing yards against Syracuse and 85 passing yards against Clemson in their last two games.  Well, the strength of this Navy team is their run defense.  They only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.  They just held Cincinnati to 60 rushing yards last week.

Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing against a good team (60% to 75%).  Plays on neutral field underdogs (Navy) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possessions minutes per game.  The Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record as they tend to play up to their level of competition.  Roll with Navy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/South Florida OVER 72

The SMU Mustangs just beat Houston 77-63 in regulation for 140 combined points last week.  That was the highest-scoring game in college football history.  It was the 3rd time in 4 games that SMU scored at least 40 points.  The lone exception was the 27 points against a very good Cincinnati defense.

The Mustangs will be able to name their number this week against a South Florida defense that has allowed at least 41 points in five of its last six games.  The Bulls rank last or second to last in almost every major category defensively.  They give up 39.9 points per game, 504.1 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They just allowed 54 points and 721 total yards to a putrid Temple offense last week.

But South Florida can score and at least somewhat keep pace with SMU to contribute to this OVER.  The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Mustangs aren't very good defensively as they allow 33.7 points per game, 454 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  So this one has shootout written all over it with temps in the 80's and light wins at Raymond James Stadium Saturday.

The OVER is 12-1 in Bulls last 13 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Fresno State/UNLV OVER 59

I love the OVER in this game between Fresno State and UNLV Friday.  Both teams have season-long offensive numbers that lie because both were missing their stud starting quarterbacks for multiple games.  They have arguably the two best quarterbacks in the Mountain West, so that's a big deal.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium Friday night in Las Vegas.

After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the UNLV Rebels have gone 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall.  A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force, Notre Dame and San Diego State.

But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield.  He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State.  So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season.  Brumfield returned against San Diego State last week and played well, and now he has shaken off the rust and will be even sharper this week against a much worse Fresno State defense than San Diego State's stop unit.  Brumfield is completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,438 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores in basically just six games of action.

Jake Haener is not only the best quarterback in the Mountain West, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country and has an NFL future.  That's why it hurt the Bulldogs when he went out in the first half of the USC game in their third game of the season.  He missed the next four games before returning against San Diego State two weeks ago.

Haener picked up where he left off, throwing for 394 yards and three touchdowns in a 32-28 win over San Diego State.  He came back with 327 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-13 win over Hawaii last week.  Haener is now completing 74.3% of his passes for 1,575 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio in basically just 4.5 games this season.

UNLV averaged 11.7 PPG in their three games without Brumfield.  Fresno State scored 20 or fewer points in four of the five games that Haener missed.  As I stated before, that's why the season-long numbers for both teams are way off.  These two offenses are much better than the numbers suggest with Haener and Brumfield healthy for the stretch run.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 68, 67 and 83 points.  UNLV Is 22-6 OVER in its last 28 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulldogs last five games following a win.  The OVER is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games.  The OVER is 16-5 in Rebels last 21 Friday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* East Carolina/Cincinnati ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +5

East Carolina has a huge rest advantage over Cincinnati that isn't being factored into this line enough.  Amazingly, the Pirates got a bye last week so they aren't on a short week like Cincinnati.  Meanwhile, the Bearcats had to play a physical, sloppy game against Navy in a 20-10 win over Saturday and are now on a short week.  They will also be playing for a fourth consecutive week and all three games came down to the wire, so it has taken its toll.

Cincinnati has been grossly overvalued all season after making the four-team playoff last season.  The Bearcats are 7-2 SU but 2-6-1 ATS this season.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall beating USF by 4 as 26.5-point favorites, beating SMU by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, losing outright to UCF as 2.5-point dogs and only beating Navy by 10 as 18.5-point favorites.  They have been fortunate in many close games this season, but their luck runs out against East Carolina this week.

You could make the case that East Carolina is the best team in this conference.  The Pirates are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their nine games this season but have actually outgained eight of their nine opponents.  That includes outgaining both Navy and Tulane in their two conference losses.  But they crushed UCF 34-13, and now would own the tiebreaker on both UCF and Cincinnati with a win Friday night that would have them on the inside track to make the AAC title game, where they will be out for revenge against Tulane.

East Carolina is averaging 32.6 points per game, 467 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They have a balanced offense that averages 170 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 8.2 per attempt.  This will be Cincinnati's stiffest defensive test of the season, especially on a short week with a tired defense.

Cincinnati averages 410 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense and only rushes for 135 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They have taken a big step back on offense this season and also a step back on defense.  They allow 21.0 points per game against teams that only average 26.5 points per game, so they have faced a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  East Carolina isn't far behind allowing 23.2 points per game against teams that average 26.5 points per game.  The numbers would be almost even if not for allowing 15 points in OT to Memphis.

The Pirates are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  East Carolina is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games as a road dog of 7 points or less, including 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  They pulled the 27-24 upset at BYU two weeks ago in a hostile atmosphere.  That will have them ready for Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, especially since they have had two weeks to prepare for it.  Take East Carolina Friday.

20* Tulsa/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 61

Tulsa (3-6) and Memphis (4-5) are going through a disappointing seasons right now compared to preseason expectations.  I have to think that they both don't care as much as they would have if they were in contention.  And thus I think that plays out defensively in this game as both defenses play soft and the offensive shine in what is otherwise a meaningless game.

The forecast in Memphis is calling for 67 degrees and only 3 MPH winds Thursday night, so it is perfect conditions for a shootout.  These teams have no problem playing in shootouts to say the least.  In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Tulsa and Memphis have combined for at least 60 points in six of those seven meetings.  They have averaged a whopping 75.3 combined points per game in those seven meetings.

Memphis still has an elite offense this season that is averaging 33.9 points per game.  Tulsa also averages 30.2 points per game despite what has been somewhat of a down year for their offense.  But it's clear the biggest reason for both of their struggles is that they have both taken a step back defensively this season.

Indeed, Tulsa allows 33.2 points per game.  They cannot stop the run, allowing 227 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.  Memphis allows 31.6 points per game on the season.  They have been particularly bad against the pass, allowing 65.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game.

The OVER is 8-1 in Memphis' nine games this season.  We've seen 63 or more combined points in seven of Memphis' nine games this season with the lone exceptions being Temple and Navy, which have the two worst offenses in the AAC.  We've seen 69 or more combined points in six of Tulsa's nine games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Tigers last seven home games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MAC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan ML +110

Central Michigan kept its bowl hopes alive with a very impressive 35-22 win at Northern Illinois last week.  The Chippewas won that game despite committing four turnovers.  Their got their offense going with 452 total yards, and their defense came through by holding a potent Huskies offense to just 316 total yards.

With Buffalo and Western Michigan at home and Eastern Michigan on the road to close out the season, the Chippewas really think they can run the table.  They will keep their momentum today against Buffalo, which had its momentum halted last week.  The Bulls had their five-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 24-45 loss at Ohio.

I think the Bulls suffer a hangover effect here.  They sit at 5-4 knowing they can clinch bowl eligibility next week with a home game against MAC bottom feeder Akron.  That loss to Ohio was very concerning considering they were held to just 260 yards against a bad Ohio defense and gave up 482 total yards, getting outgained by 222 yards total.

In fact, when you look at the season-long stats, there's no way this game should be a PK.  The Chipppewas should be favored by 3 at the very least.  Central Michigan is outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game on the season.  They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by only 0-.1 yards per play.

Conversely, Buffalo is getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season.  Worse yet, the Bulls average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 6.3 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play despite their 5-4 record.  They are very fortunate to have this record, and that's the only reason this line is a PK is because they have a better record.  Central Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, which makes these numbers even more in their favor.

Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games.  The Chippewas are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.  Bet Central Michigan on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +11.5

Ball State has quietly gone 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall to pull within one game of Toledo for first place in the MAC West.  Now they get to play the Rockets in what is essentially the MAC West Championship game already.  They are catching too many points here in a game that is likely decided by single-digits either way.

Ball State has just one loss by more than 11 points all season, and that came in the opener at Tennessee.  They are getting better with each passing game and just put together their most complete performance of the season.  They won 27-20 at Kent State as 7-point underdogs.  They outgained Kent State 450 to 408 for the game and 6.2 to 4.5 yards per play.  Holding the Golden Flashes to just 4.5 yards per play is no small feat.

Toledo is likely to be without starting QB Daquon Finn again for this game.  Backup Tucker Gleason went 15-of-27 for 238 yards and three touchdowns against a bad Eastern Michigan defense last week as they snuck out with a 27-24 victory as 4-point road favorites.  He is a big downgrade from Finn, and I would like Ball State at this line even if Finn plays.  The Rockets lost 27-34 at Buffalo the game prior and have no business being double-digit favorites for this one.

Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Toledo.  Bet Ball State Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest/NC State OVER 54

Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 38.9 points per game this season.  But they are coming off a 10-point effort at Louisville that was due to committing eight turnovers that is keeping this total lower than it should be.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what has been a high-scoring head-to-head series.

This total has also been set lower than it should be because NC State has disappointed on offense this season, averaging just 26.8 points per game.  Of course, they weren't very good even before QB Devin Leary suffered a season-ending injury.  They were even worse with backup Jack Chambers.

But I think the Wolf Pack have found something in third-stringer MJ Morris.  He replaced Chambers against Virginia Tech last week and went 20-of-29 passing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in his first significant action.  I think Morris has injected some new life into this offense, and they are primed for one of their best offensive performances of the season against this suspect Wake Forest defense this week.

As I mentioned, this has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings with NC State winning 45-42 two years ago for 87 combined points.  Last year, Wake Forest returned the favor with a 45-42 victory for 87 combined points again.  Now we just need 55-plus to cash this OVER 54.  That shouldn't be a problem with the forecast looking pretty good Saturday with temperatures in the 70's and 4 MPH winds and only a slight chance of rain.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +17.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS this season.  They have been competitive even in losses.  They hung with Washington in a 39-49 loss as 14.5-point road dogs three weeks ago.  Then they returned from their bye and gave USC a run for its money, losing 37-45 as 14-point home dogs.  Now the Wildcats will hang with Utah as 17.5-point road dogs this week.

Arizona is never out of any game due to their explosive offense.  The Wildcats are scoring 32.3 points per game, averaging 479 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  Those are even better numbers than Utah this season.  They do have a suspect defense, but Utah has also taken a step back defensively this season.

The Utes have so many injuries right now to where they cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.  Starting QB Cam Rising was a late scratch against Washington State last week, and the Utes were fortunate to win that game 21-17.  Star TE Dalton Kincaid suffered a shoulder injury in that game and was seen in a sling on the sidelines late.  It's unlikely he will play this week.  They are also down to a third-string RB.

The good news is I like the Wildcats regardless of whether or not any of these guys play.  But if they are out it would be an added bonus.  Rising is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and six scores.  Kincaid leads the team in receiving with 46 receptions for 614 yards and seven scores.  Tavion Thomas leads the team in rushing with 414 yards and six scores.  All three are questionable for this contest.

The Wildcats are never going to be out of this game with Jayden de Laura at quarterback.  He is quietly having one of the best seasons in all of college football.  He is completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,654 yards with a 22-to-8 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for 125 yards and a score.  

Last year, Utah only beat Arizona 38-29 as 23.5-point road favorites.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on James Madison +7.5

James Madison opened 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with four wins by 22 or more points and an upset win at Appalachian State.  But they have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall, and it's time to jump back on them.  They committed nine turnovers in the losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall, which was the difference.

Now the Dukes will regroup and have had two full weeks to prepare for Louisville.  They will relish in this opportunity to face a Power 5 team and this is basically their National Championship Game since they can't qualify for a bowl in their first season as an FBS school.

The Dukes lost QB Todd Canteio in their loss to Georgia Southern.  He sat out the loss to Marshall and backup Billy Atkins threw four interceptions to cost them the game.  Well, Canteio should be back this week especially now that he has had an extra week to recover with the bye.

The Dukes have elite numbers this season.  They average 481 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 297 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 18 points per game, outgaining them by 186 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.4 yards per play.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Louisville.  The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games and I have backed them in their last two victories over Pittsburgh and Wake Forest.  Of course, all three of those teams handed Louisville victories on a silver platter by committing a combined 15 turnovers.  So Louisville is +11 in turnovers in its last three games, which is unsustainable.  Wake Forest committed eight alone against them last week.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Louisville, too.  They are coming off that upset win against a ranked Wake Forest team, and now they have a Top 10 showdown with Clemson on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat James Madison in this non-conference game as they are to beat teams like Wake Forest and Clemson.

Plays on road teams (James Madison) - with an excellent offense that averages 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1992.  Coming off their worst offensive performance of the season with a backup QB and off a bye week, this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Dukes this week.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2.5

I love the spot for the Texas Longhorns this week.  They are coming off their bye week and still have their sights set on a Big 12 title despite being 5-3 this season.  They are very close to being 8-0 as their three losses came by 1 to Alabama, by 3 to Texas Tech and by 7 to Oklahoma State.  They arguably should have won all three games.

The Longhorns have elite numbers this season despite facing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and only allowing 4.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  They still have a chance to win the Big 12 title with a win this week against Kansas State and a win next week against TCU.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State off their 48-0 win over Okahoma State last week where everything went their way.  The Wildcats have faced the easier schedule and do have great numbers with 6.3 yards per play on offense and 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  But their numbers still are far behind those of Texas.

I love the matchup for Texas this week.  The key to stopping the Wildcats is stopping their rushing attack, which averages 228 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry.  The strength of this Texas defense is stopping the run as they rank Top 20 in the country.  They allow just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.

TCU racked up 38 points and nearly 500 total yards on this Kansas State defense two weeks ago.  Texas can do the same.  The Longhorns average 36.4 points per game and 446 yards per game.  They have great balance with 184 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.

Steve Sarkisian is 19-8 ATS following a road loss as a head coach.  Sarkisian is 19-6 ATS after allowing 37 or more points last game as a head coach.  Sarkisian has had two weeks to prepare to stop this Kansas State rushing attack, and I expect he has put it to good use.  The Longhorns are the better team in the better spot, so laying only 2.5 points with them this week is a discount.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +6.5

I love the spot for the UNLV Rebels this week.  After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the Rebels have gone 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force and Notre Dame.  Now they take a step back down in class this week against San Diego State.

But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield.  He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State.  So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season.  Brumfield is completing 68.4% of his passes for 1,231 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 137 yards and five scores in basically just five games of action.

Reinforcements are on the way for UNLV this week coming off a bye, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for San Diego State.  On Monday, Rebels coach Marcus Arroyo announced that Brumfield will return to practice this week and was listed as UNLV's starter on the depth chart.

"We spent last week, our bye week, really trying to get healthy and recharge our batteries," Arroyo said.  "Having him on the field gives us that swag that we need when we play as an offense," junior center Leif Fautanu said. "Having him on the field at practice just gives everyone more motivation."

While the spot is a great one for UNLV off a bye and getting Brumfield back, the spot is a terrible one for San Diego State.  They are coming off a 28-32 loss at Fresno State in which they allowed two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds to blow the game.  That's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice, especially for an Aztecs team that is having a down year already at 4-4 this season.

UNLV still has impressive season-long numbers despite playing three games without Brumfield, and they would be even better had he not basically missed three games.  They are gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play.  Compare that to San Diego State, which averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.4 yards per play.

San Diego State's four wins have come over Nevada, Hawaii (by 2), Toledo (by 3) and Idaho State.  They have failed every time they have taken a step up in class.  They cannot be trusted to win this game by a touchdown or more this week.

The Rebels are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  UNLV is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games.  Take UNLV Saturday.

20* Liberty/Arkansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Liberty +13.5

Hugh Freeze is the best covering coach in all of college football.  He is 74-45 ATS in all games as a head coach.  What he has done at Liberty the last three years is nothing short of remarkable.  He has gone 25-7 SU in 32 games at Liberty over the last three seasons.  That includes 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming at Wake Forest by a single points, 37-36.

What makes this season so remarkable is that the Flames have gone through four different starting quarterbacks.  It hasn't mattered who has been under center.  Johnathan Bennett has taken over the reigns and ran with the job.  He just completed 24-of-29 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in a 41-14 upset win over BYU last time out.

Now the Flames have had two full weeks to get ready for Arkansas.  They are looking at this game against an SEC opponent as their National Championship Game.  Arkansas is coming off a win at Auburn, which led the firing of Auburn's head coach.  They have an even bigger game on deck against LSU.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Razorbacks.  They won't be motivated enough to win this game by two touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

In fact, Liberty has just 3 losses by more than 13 points in their last 43 games under Hugh Freeze.  That makes for a 40-3 system backing the Flames pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  They do have a common opponent in BYU, which Arkansas beat by 17 while Liberty beat the Cougars by 27.  Liberty outgained BYU by 289 yards while Arkansas outgained them by 173 yards.

Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game where they forced zero turnovers.  The Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  The Razorbacks are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Liberty Saturday.

20* Tennessee/Georgia CBS No-Brainer on Tennessee +9

A few years back nobody gave LSU a chance and they went on to win the national title.  That feels the same with this Tennessee team.  The Vols also have eerily similar numbers to that Tigers team.  They have been grossly undervalued all season, and they continue to be this week catching more than a touchdown to Georgia.

The Vols beat LSU by 27 on the road, upset Alabama at home and crushed Kentucky 44-6 last week in what was perceived to be a lookahead spot with Georgia on deck.  They way they handled that game holding the Wildcats to just 206 total yards and outgaining them by 216 yards showed a lot about the character of this team.  They want to win a National Championship and aren't letting anything get in their way.

The Vols average 49.4 points, 553 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  Hendon Hooker now has a 52-to-4 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons.  He is every bit as good as Joe Burrow was in college, but he doesn't get the credit that Burrow did.  He is also more of a dual-threat than Burrow was, which makes him so tough to stop.  Amazingly, the Vols have done this without two of their biggest weapons for half the season, and both are back healthy on offense now.

While the offense gets all the headlines, this Tennessee defense has been just as big a factor.  They are holding opponents to just 21.0 points per game, 394 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  And they have faced a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses than Georgia has.  This will easily be the toughest test of the season for this Georgia defense.  After all, Tennessee scored 52 points on Alabama's vaunted defense.

Georgia did beat Oregon in the opener, but that was a way different Oregon team than the one we are seeing today.  The last seven wins have come against such a soft schedule of Samford, South Carolina, Kent State, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida.  Not one of those teams is a shoe-in to even make a bowl game.  And they only beat Kent State by 17 as 45-point favorites and Missouri by 4 as 31-point favorites, so they are clearly vulnerable.

Georgia is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  The Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Vols are 7-1 ATS this season.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after gaining 525 or more yards per game in their last three games against an opponent that outgained their last opponent by 125 or more yards are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +3.5

I love the spot for the Memphis Tigers this week.  They are coming off a bye week and it came at the perfect time as they were reeling from three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won.  Now they can regroup and get back up off the mat to face the favorite to win the AAC in UCF this week.

Houston pulled a miracle three games ago to beat Memphis, scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes to win 33-32.  Memphis then lost in quadruple OT at ECU 45-47 despite outgaining them by 18 yards.  And last time out they lost 28-38 at Tulane despite outgaining them by 71 yards.  Memphis could easily be 7-1 instead of 4-4, and if they were they wouldn't be catching 3.5 points to UCF at home off a buy week.  This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Tigers as a result.

The spot is a terrible one for UCF.  They are in the ultimate letdown and sandwich spot this week.  They are coming off a huge 25-21 win over Cincinnati last week, the favorite coming into the season to win the AAC after making the four-team playoff last year.  Now they have an even bigger game at Tulane on deck next week that could decide the conference.  That makes this a letdown and sandwich spot if I've ever seen one.

UCF has benefited from a home-heavy schedule playing six of their first eight games at home.  They finish with three of four on the road.  They clearly aren't as good on the road as they did beat FAU before falling 34-13 at East Carolina.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Memphis took ECU to OT on the road and should have won.

I love the matchup for Memphis.  The Tigers are a pass-heavy team that averages 285 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt.  The weakness of UCF is their pass D as they have allowed 298 or more passing yards in four of their last five games.  They allowed 314 passing yards to Georgia Tech, 363 to SMU, 234 to lowly Temple, 311 to ECU and 298 to Cincinnati.

UCF starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was forced from the Cincinnati game and may not play this week.  He is their leading rusher with 518 yards, seven touchdowns and 4.8 per carry on the ground.  The Knights won't be nearly as balanced offensively if he can't go this week.  But I like Memphis either way in this one.  They have a huge home-field advantage and are 3-1 at home this season with the lone setback being that fluke 1-point loss to Houston.

Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game.  The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Memphis 9-1 ATS following three consecutive conference losses.  The KNicks are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 conference games.  The Tigers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games following a bye week.  The home team is 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico +16.5

Utah State has been way overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last season.  They have opened 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in 2022 to follow up their title.  QB Logan Bonner lost all of his weapons from that team, and then Bonner went down with a season-ending injury.  The Aggies are down to a 4th string QB right now.  They continue to be overvalued as 16.5-point favorites over New Mexico this week.

But the main reason for this handicap is the forecast.  There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday in Logan, Utah with 20 MPH winds expected.  That means this game is going to be played on the ground, and points are going to be at a premium.  The ground game favors New Mexico in this one because they cannot throw the ball effectively.

New Mexico has rushed for 128 yards per game this season and will be able to move the ball on the ground against a Utah State defense that allows 205 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  The Aggies just allowed 330 rushing yards to Wyoming last time out and 265 to Air Force two games back.

Conversely, New Mexico has the better defense, especially against the run.  The Lobos only allow 24.9 points per game, 352 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  They are giving up just 136 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry.  They will get enough stops to stay within this number Saturday.  Four of their six losses this season have come by 17 points or fewer.

Utah State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game.  Utah State's three wins this season have come against UConn by 11, Air Force by 7 and Colorado State by 4.  They haven't won by this kind of margin yet, and they aren't equipped to given their QB situation and the forecast.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UAB ML +105

The UAB Blazers are so much better than their 4-4 record would indicate.  Two of their losses were due to losing starting QB Dylan Hopkins, who should be back this week.  He means everything to this offense, completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,233 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores.

The Blazers have the numbers of a 7-1 team rather than a 4-4 team.  They three games they were outgained came by 35 yards to Liberty, by 5 yards to Georgia Southern and by 28 yards to Western Kentucky.  They still outgained FAU by 113 yards last week despite losing.  They average 438 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 329 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 109 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play, which are elite numbers.

UTSA is 6-2 but only outgaining opponents by 71 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  UAB is the better team, yet they are the home underdog in this game due to the records of these teams.  The Blazers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the defending C-USA champs this week.  They are looking at this game as their National Championship.

UAB also wants revenge from a 31-34 road loss at UTSA as 3.5-point dogs last season.  They outgained UTSA 474 to 375 in  that game, or by 99 yards.  Two years ago they won 21-13 at home, and home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The Blazers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 28.5 points per game.

UAB is 38-12 ATS in its last 50 games following a two-game road trip.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following two consecutive road losses.  UAB is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games as a home underdog.  The Roadrunners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  Take UAB on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -2

I love the spot for Middle Tennessee this week.  They just had a bye two weeks ago before winning 24-13 at UTEP last week.  They outgained the Miners by 86 yards in that game and improved to 4-4 on the season.  They have an excellent chance to make a bowl game and a much better outlook than Louisiana Tech right now.

The Bulldogs sit at 2-6 this season after back-to-back OT losses to Rice (41-42) and Florida International (34-42).  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after those two defeats that are going to surely cost them a bowl game.  Their outlook the rest of the season is gloomy, and I find it hard to see them putting much effort forth the rest the season, but especially this week.

This is a tired Louisiana Tech team as it is playing four consecutive shootouts the last four weeks against UTEP, North Texas, Rice and FIU.  They keep getting in shootouts because they cannot stop anyone.  The Bulldogs have one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 39.6 points per game, 476.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.

And that's the difference between these two teams. Middle Tennessee acutally played defense.  They are holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.7 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.2 yards per play below their season averages.  They will score at will on this LA Tech defense, while also getting enough stops to win this game.

These teams have a common opponent in UTEP, and that's important because both teams were coming off a bye week when they faced the Miners.  Middle Tennessee put up 378 yards and 6.1 yards per play on UTEP, while allowing 292 yards and 4.2 yards per play.  The Blue Raiders outgained the Miners by 86 yards and 1.9 yards per play.  LA Tech gained 380 yards and 6.3 per play while giving up 501 yards and 5.6 per play to UTEP.  They were outgained by 121 yards by the Miners.

Plays against home underdogs (Louisiana Tech) - a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Blue Raiders are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulldogs are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday.

20* Oregon State/Washington ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 55.5

This play is mostly due to the weather expected in Washington Friday night.  There is a 100% chance of rain with winds approaching 20 MPH.  That sets this up for an UNDER game with points at a premium.  Both teams will be forced to try to move the football on the ground in this one, which will keep the clock moving as well.

Oregon State already has a run-heavy approach averaging 39 rush attempts per game compared to just 27 passing.  So they will be in their comfort zone.  The problem is they'll be up against one of the best run defenses in the Pac-12.  Washington only allows 110 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, holding opponents to 34 rushing yards per game and 1.0 per carry less than their season averages.  So Oregon State's offensive strength is also Washington's defensive strength.

Washington averages 44 pass attempts per game and only 32 rushing attempts.  That's probably because they are a poor rushing offense anyway, averaging just 130 yards per game and 4.0 per carry, averaging 33 rushing yards per game and 0.5 per carry less than their opponents typically allow.  They will have to run the ball, and they will be up against a stout Oregon State run defense that allows 120 rushing yards per game.  The Beavers are also pretty good against the pass, holding opponents to 55.6% completions and 231 passing yards per game.  They held USC's high-powered attack to just 17 points and 359 total yards a few weeks ago.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Three straight and four of the last five meetings between Washington and Oregon State have seen 51 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 51, 48, 26 and 49 points in four of the five meetings.  It should be more of the same in this 2022 meeting, especially because of the weather and both teams' defensive strengths being the strengths of the opposing offenses.

Both teams are coming off a bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare to shut down these offenses.  That extra time favors the defenses.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Huskies last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 points (Washington) - after winning two of its last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 75-35 (68.2%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Appalachian State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Appalachian State -3

Appalachian State has played the much tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and that's the big difference in their records this season.  The Mountaineers are 5-3 this season and underrated because of it.  Their three losses came to UNC by 2, James Madison by 4 and Texas State by 12 in a misleading final in which they outgained the Bobcats by 102 yards.

The Mountaineers have come back with two dominant efforts since that defeat.  They beat Georgia State 42-17 as a 9.5-point favorite while outgaining them by 165 yards and holding them to a season low in yardage.  Then they crushed Robert Morris 42-3 and outgained them by 364 yards while holding them to a season low in total yards.  Coming off an easy effort their, the Mountaineers should still be fresh on this short week, which is a big advantage.

Coastal Carolina is 7-1 but nowhere near as good as that record.  The seven wins have come against Army, Gardner Webb, Buffalo, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, ULM and Marshall.  Amazingly, six of the seven victories came by 12 points or fewer, so they were all competitive games against suspect competition.  Two games ago they lost 21-49 outright to Old Dominion while allowing 525 total yards to the Monarchs, who don't have a very good offense.

And that's the difference in this game.  One team can get stops while the other one can't.  Appalachian State has the much better defense, allowing just 310 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play against teams that average 357 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Coastal Carolina allows 413 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play against teams that only average 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Appalachian State is allowing 1.2 yards per play less than Coastal Carolina on defense despite facing the tougher schedule.

These teams are pretty even offensively, but the Mountaineers have the better balance and are the better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Appalachian State is averaging 36.9 points per game, 460 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play while Coastal Carolina is averaging 31.9 points per game, 435 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.

Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  The Mountaineers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Chanticleers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win.  They'll get exposed tonight against the best team they have faced all season in Appalachian State.  This is probably the fourth-best team that the Mountaineers have faced as I would have UNC, James Madison and Texas A&M all favored over Coastal.  Bet Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CMU/NIU MAC ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -5.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Northern Illinois Huskies.  They won the MAC last year and brought back 18 starters, so expectations were high.  After winning all the close games last year, they have lost all the close games this year with a 2-6 start.  This is much better than a 2-6 team.

The Huskies have had to go through three different starting quarterbacks due to injury.  After playing third-stringer Lynch against Ohio last time out, they should get one of their top two back in either Lombardi or Hampton.  They are coming off a bye week to get these guys healthy.  And looking at the schedule, they still have a great shot to make a bowl by winning out with EMU, WMU, Miami Ohio and Akron to close the season with three of those games at home.  We should get their best effort here.

Northern Illinois has outgained all four opponents in MAC play despite being 1-3 SU.  They are gaining 437 yards per game on offense and only allowing 353 yards per game on defense.  I still believe they are one of the best teams in the MAC, if not the best.  That's why they are undervalued right now due to their record.

Central Michigan is every bit as bad as its 2-6 record would indicate.  The Chippewas are 1-3 in MAC play and getting outgained 317 to 338.3 yards per game.  They are averaging only 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.1 yards per play on defense.  And they have faced an easy MAC schedule of Bowling Green, Akron, Ball State and Toledo.  Their lone win came against Akron 28-21 as 12.5-point favorites.  They only outgained the Zips by 50 yards.

This Central Michigan offense is broken.  The Chippewas have been held to 18 points or fewer in four of their last five games with the lone exception being Akron.  Star RB Lew Nicholls sate out last game and is questionable to return this week.  The QB play has been poor, and the running game also hasn't been good even with Nicholls healthy.  The Chippewas are averaging just 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.

Northern Illinois is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after having lost three of its last four games.  The Huskies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game.  The Chippewas are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS loss.  The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

20* Buffalo/Ohio ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

Two terrible defensive teams and two solid offenses square off tonight when the Buffalo Bulls visit the Ohio Bobcats in this MAC showdown Tuesday night.  Expect a shootout to kick off MACtion in this contest tonight.

Ohio allows 34.4 points per game, 510 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  The Bobcats are allowing 90 yards per game more than their opponents average on offense this season.  They are also giving up 6.9 yards per play against teams that only average 6.0 yards per play.

Buffalo is getting credit for decent defensive numbers, but they have played a poor schedule of opposing offenses this season.  The Bulls are allowing 18 yards per game more than their opponents average.  They are also allowing 6.1 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play.  This is not a good defense.

Buffalo does have a good offense that averages 30.9 points per game this season and has scored 34 or more points in three consecutive games coming in.  Ohio averages 32.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Bobcats are averaging 39 points per game in their last five games.

The OVER is 12-3 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games following a bye week.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bobcats last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last six home games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Bobcats last nine Tuesday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +17

The UCLA Bruins just suffered their 'dream crusher' loss to Oregon last week.  The Bruins entered that game 6-0 with national championship aspirations.  But the 45-30 loss crushed their dreams, and now there will be a hangover effect this week.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat following that defeat, and they certainly won't have their 'A' game, which is what it would take to cover this massive 17-point spread.

Stanford has turned around their season with back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State.  They had lost four straight prior to that, but all four losses came by 18 points or fewer, including losses to USC and Oregon, which are arguably the two best teams in the Pac-12.  They lost to Oregon by 18 while UCLA lost to them by 15, both on the road, to give these teams a common opponent.

UCLA has beaten Stanford by more than 17 points just once in the last 15 meetings.  That's a 14-1 system backing the Cardinal pertaining to this 17-point spread.  The Cardinal are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six trips to UCLA.  

The head-to-head history suggests this line is too big.  The hangover spot for the Bruins suggests this line is too big.  And finally, Stanford has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country to this point, while UCLA has played the 66th-toughest.  That difference in strength of schedule makes the Cardinal a must bet this week.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +23

This is too many points for this rivalry game between Michigan State and Michigan.  The Spartans always take this game more seriously than the Wolverines as it's a little brother vs. big brother situation.  And we've seen that play out with the Spartans consistently pulling off upsets and keeping games a lot closer than the spread.

In fact, Michigan has just one win by more than 18 points in its last 19 meetings with Michigan State.  That makes for an 18-1 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 23-point spread.  While the Wolverines are clearly the better team again this year, they have no business being a 23-point favorite when you look at the head-to-head history.

I also like the fact that Michigan State is coming off its most impressive performance of the season.  The Spartans upset Wisconsin 34-28 as 7-point home underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  The Spartans outgained the Badgers 389 to 283, or by 106 total yards.  That win looks even better now when you consider Wisconsin crushed Northwestern 42-7 and Purdue 35-24 sandwiched around that loss to Michigan State.  The Spartans were banged up in the first half of the season, but are now as healthy as they have been all season and coming off a bye.

I think Michigan is getting too much respect for its 41-17 blowout victory over Penn State last time out.  But the Wolverines were far from impressive in their previous three games.  They only beat Maryland 34-27 as 17-point home favorites, Iowa 27-14 as 10.5-point road favorites and Indiana 31-10 as 23-point road favorites.  Keep in mind that Indiana game was tied 10-10 at halftime.  Michigan only outgained Iowa by 46 yards and Maryland by 66 yards, too.

Michigan State is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Michigan.  The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Simply put, this is too many points for this rivalry game, and it's time to 'buy low' on the Spartans and 'sell high' on the Wolverines.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +27.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since QB Hank Bachmeier transferred out.  The wins came against San Diego State, Fresno State and Air Force.  All three programs are down this season compared to preseasons expectations.

This is a letdown and sandwich spot for Boise State.  They are coming off the 19-14 win at Air Force that puts them on the inside track to win the Mountain West.  Now they have a big game against rival BYU on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot.  They won't be giving their 'A' effort this week, and that's going to make it difficult for them to win by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado State, which faced a brutal early schedule and got off to an 0-4 start under first-year head coach Jay Norvell.  But the Rams have continued to fight and improve under Norvell, going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall with wins over Nevada and Hawaii and only a 4-point loss to Utah State as a 14-point dog.

I know Colorado State's offense has struggled, but their defense has been better than expected.  Their defense is the reason they have a chance to cover this game because Boise State is going to have a hard time scoring 28 points in this one with a total of just 43.  The Rams are holding foes to 381 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play, which is impressive considering how much they have been on the field due to their offense.  They have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 points per game.

It's not like Boise State is an offensive juggernaut, either.  The Broncos are scoring 26.0 points per game, averaging 336 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 362 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They have a below-average offense.  Their defense is good, but that have faced such an easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They have played the 104th-ranked schedule in the country overall.

Colorado State is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17.5

This is a big letdown spot for Oregon.  The Ducks are coming off a 45-30 home win over UCLA in what was one of the biggest games of the week in college football last Saturday.  It's now time to 'sell high' on the Ducks, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Oregon has been awesome at home, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on the highway this season.  They lost 49-3 to Georgia and only beat Washington State 44-41 as 6.5-point road favorites.  They did beat Arizona 49-22, but California also crushed Arizona 49-31.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears, who have lost three consecutive games coming in.  They did hang tough in a 21-28 home loss to Washington as 7.5-point home dogs.  They are now 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season.  This is the best offense Cal has had in a few years, and their defense is solid as always allowing 22.6 points per game.

The recent head-to-head series really favors Cal in this one.  Cal is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon with all three meetings decided by 10 points or fewer.  Now Cal is catching a whopping 17.5 points in this showdown.  Cal always takes this game more seriously than Oregon does, and Justin Wilcox has figured out their offense.  The Ducks have been held to 24, 17 and 17 points in the last three meetings.  That's going to make it tough to cover this 17.5-point spread if they are shut down again.

California is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  California is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take California Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Louisville +4.5

The Louisville Cardinals have played two of their best games of the season the last two weeks.  They beat Virginia 34-17 on the road as 2-point underdogs without Malik Cunningham.  He returned last week to lead them to a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.  

It was the fourth time this season that the Cardinals have held their opponent to 17 points or fewer as this defense is better than it gets credit for.  This is also one of the better offenses in the ACC as the Cardinals have scored 32.6 points per game in their last five games.  They have the firepower to hang with Wake Forest, and they also have the defense to get a few key stops.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season against a pretty soft schedule.  Wake Forest has played the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country.  To compare, Louisville has played the 44th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are more battled-tested than the Demon Deacons, and this will be their toughest test since a home loss to Clemson.

Louisville is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings over the past three seasons.  Louisville won 62-59 as 7-point road dogs in 2019, 45-21 as 2-point home dogs in 2020 and lost 34-37 as 7-point road dogs in 2021.  Amazingly, the Demon Deacons continue to be favored over the Cardinals when they shouldn't be.  This is clearly a great matchup for Cunningham and head coach Scott Satterfield.  The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last four games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with Western Kentucky in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for Western Kentucky.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final four games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Three games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  Two weeks ago they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.  And last week they led UTSA late and lost 27-31 as 10-point road underdogs.  UTSA is the favorite to win Conference USA.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 35.0 points per game, 484 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye three weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give Western Kentucky all they want and more Saturday.

This is a letdown spot for WKU after a 20-17 win over another C-USA contender in UAB last week.  Well, they would never have won that game if QB Dylan Hopkins didn't get knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter.  UAB backup QB Zeno went 3-of-10 for 33 yards and rushed 6 times for 14 yards after replacing Hopkins.  Simply put, he was awful, and UAB still should have beaten WKU had they not turned the ball over four times.

This is a tired WKU team that will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The Hilltoppers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule, ranked 122nd in the country.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  The only teams they have beaten by this kind of margin are Austin Peay, Hawaii, FIU and Middle Tennessee.  Those are three of the worst FBS teams in the country plus an FCS team, and they only beat Austin Peay by 11.

North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Finally, the Mean Green were 10-point dogs at UTSA last week, and now are 10-point dogs at WKU this week.  UTSA beat WKU and is better than WKU.  This line cannot be the same as it was last week, so there's value on the Mean Green.  Take North Texas Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats following six consecutive losses.  Well, five of those six losses came by 10 points or fewer.  They just hung with Maryland last week in a 24-31 road loss as 14-point underdogs.  And now they will give Iowa a run for its money Saturday.

This is exactly the type of game Pat Fitzgerald loves.  It's guaranteed to be a physical Big Ten game against an Iowa team that plays a similar style.  That's why Northwestern plays Iowa tough every year and will play them tough again this season.

Iowa's offense has no business laying this kind of number.  The Hawkeyes are scoring 14.0 points per game, averaging 227 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  They have scored more than 14 points just twice all season.  One was against Nevada, a 27-0 win against what is one of the worst teams in FBS.  The other was a 27-10 win over Rutgers, which was misleading considering Iowa scored two defensive touchdowns and was outgained by 84 yards.  So technically the Hawkeyes' offense only scored 13 points on Rutgers.

Northwestern was even worse last year than they are this season, and Iowa was better.  Well, Iowa won 17-12 as identical 11.5-point favorites at Northwestern.  And they were fortunate to win that game as the were +3 in turnovers.  Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.

Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS in road games following a cover where his team lost straight up as an underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  Kirk Ferentz is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa.  The Wildcats are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games coming off five consecutive games where they had two or more turnovers.  Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 310 or fewer yards per game.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* ECU/BYU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +3

East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS this season but could easily be 7-1 instead.  They missed an extra point late and lost to NC State by 1.  They also lost in OT to Navy by 3.  Their one legit loss was a 9-24 setback at Tulane, but Tulane is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-1 this season with a road win over Kansas State.

What makes me know East Carolina is legit and should be 7-1 is the fact that the Pirates have actually outgained seven of their eight opponents this season.  They are averaging 472.6 yards per game on offense behind a balanced attack with 163 rushing yards per game and 309 passing yards per game.  They are allowing 395 yards per game on defense, outgaining their opponents by 78 yards per game.

BYU has fallen off a cliff since a 4-1 start.  The Cougars have now lost three straight and are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and continue to be as favorites here over East Carolina when they shouldn't be.  BYU has been outgained in four of its eight games and drastically in its last three.

You could see the sign of things to come with a 38-26 win over Utah State that was much closer than the final score despite being a 25.5-point favorite against Utah State's third-string QB.  BYU only outgained Utah State by 7 yards.  They went on to lose 28-20 to Notre Dame while getting outgained by 220 yards, lost 52-35 to Arkansas while getting outgained by 173 yards, and lost 41-14 to Liberty while getting outgained by 289 yards.

The brutal schedule and the fatigue are starting to catch up to to the Cougars.  In fact, BYU will be playing for a 9th consecutive week here.  BYU's offense isn't working, and the defense is getting gashed.  Liberty had 41 points and 547 total yards on this BYU defense last week which followed up 52 points and 644 total yards by Arkansas the previous week.

The Cougars cannot stop the run.  They have allowed at least 205 rushing yards in five of their last six games, including 3000 to Liberty and 277 to Arkansas.  East Carolina averages 4.9 yards per attempt this season and can keep the ball on the ground if they decide to, though QB Holton Ahlers is one of the best signal callers in the country.  BYU allows 202 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  ECU only allows 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.

East Carolina just crushed UCF 34-13 at home, a UCF team that many thought would win the American Athletic this season.  The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as road underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  BYU is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game.  The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet East Carolina Friday.

20* Utah/Washington State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -7

Two road losses to Florida and UCLA have the Utah Utes undervalued right now.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the Pac-12.  Those two losses have them flying under the radar.  They are still the best team in the conference and I think we'll see that play out as the season unfolds.

That was definitely the case last time out as Utah handed USC its first loss of the season.  The Utes racked up 562 total yards on the Trojans in the 43-42 shootout victory.  The Utes are now scoring 40.7 points per game and averaging 473 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense.  I don't see any way for Washington State to be able to score enough points to hang with the Utes in this one Thursday night.

The Cougars are down their two best weapons on offense in WR Renard Bell and RB Nakia Watson.  Watson has rushed for 325 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry and leads the team in rushing.  Bell has 20 receptions for 282 yards and two touchdowns.  Bell has missed the past two games, while Watson has missed most of the past two games.

To no surprise, Washington State has had it two worst offensive performances in its last two games without these two.  The Cougars managed just 14 points and 316 total yards on a terrible USC defense in a 30-14 loss.  They managed just 10 points in a 24-10 loss at Oregon State last time out.  That's not a great Oregon State defense, either.

Utah has owned Washington State in going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by 25, 17 and 11 points.  The Utes are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a win.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday games.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games coming off two consecutive games where 70 or more combined points were scored.  Kyle Whittingham is 21-11 ATS following a bye week as the coach of Utah.  Bet Utah Thursday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -2

The Pittsburgh Panthers continue to be overvalued due to winning the ACC last year.  They are nowhere near the team they were last year.  They are 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS this season.  Their four wins have come against the four of the worst teams they played in Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Western Michigan and West Virginia.  They were fortunate to beat WVU, and they were upset as 21.5-point home favorites by Georgia Tech.

The Louisville Cardinals have lost to Syracuse, Florida State and Boston College.  The BC loss was bad, but it's worth noting star QB Malik Cunningham got injured in that game otherwise they probably would have won.  He sat out their last game and they were still able to dominate Virginia 34-17.  The 20-14 win over UCF earlier this season looks even better today.

Now Cunningham returns following a bye week and the Cardinals are going to be a dangerous team the rest of the way.  I think they are better than Pitt, thus they should be more than a 2-point favorite here.  And this will be just Pitt's second road game of the season.  Their first came at Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the MAC.  This is a big step up in class for them and their toughest game outside of a home loss to Tennessee.

Louisville has played the 41st-ranked schedule in the country while Pitt has played the 80th.  That difference in strength of schedule is a big one.  This will also be a night game in Louisville with the defending ACC champs coming to town, so it's going to be an electric atmosphere and an even bigger home-field advantage for the Cardinals.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - a good offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) - after playing a game where 60 or more points were scored are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +11

Fresno State is a team that has failed to meet expectations this season.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs went on to lose four consecutive games and are just 1-5 ATS this season.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.

Give the Bulldogs credit for beating San Jose State 17-10 as 7.5-point underdogs last week, but now they are overvalued as double-digit road favorites at New Mexico this week.  This offense cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They have averaged just 17.0 points per game in their last four games,  and just 251.3 total yards per game in their last three games without Haener.  Backup QB Logan Fife has a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in Haener's place.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on New Mexico after an upset 9-21 loss to rival New Mexico State as a 7-point favorite.  That was a misleading final as the Lobos actually outgained the Aggies by 44 yards and held them to 269 yards.  This is a legit New Mexico defense that will hold Fresno in check to be able to cover this inflated number.  The Lobos rank 22nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 329.7 yards per game.

The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They should not be double-digit road favorites here given their current state.  New Mexico upset UTEP, crushed Maine 41-0 and hung tough with Boise (17-point loss), UNLV (11-point loss) and Wyoming (13-point loss).  The only team to blow them out was LSU.  Roll with New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UTEP +4.5

I love the spot for UTEP this week.  They are coming off a bye after playing seven consecutive games to start the season.  They were playing well upsetting Boise 27-10 as 16.5-point dogs and topping Charlotte 41-35 as 3.5-point road favorites in their previous two games before running out of gas in a 31-41 loss at Louisiana Tech, which was coming off a bye.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the season as well.  UTEP racked up 501 total yards on Louisiana Tech and outgained them by 121 yards.  If they won that game like they should have, they would not be home underdogs to Florida Atlantic this week.  And what has FAU done lately to deserve this kind of respect?

The Owls are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 26 to UCF, hung tough against Purdue and a backup QB, lost by 17 at North Texas and only won 17-14 at home over Rice last week as 5-point favorites.  Keep in mind they also lost to a bad Ohio team as road favorites earlier this season.  Their three wins have come against Charlotte, FCS SE Louisiana and Rice all at home.  They are 0-3 SU on the road this season.

UTEP wants revenge from a 25-28 road loss at Florida Atlantic last season to add to their motivation.  They deserved to win that game as they outgained FAU 438 to 280, or by 158 total yards.  The spot favors the Miners off a bye, and the motivational angle with revenge favors the Miners as well.  Plus they are probably the better team this season anyway, especially when you look at how these teams are playing of late.

FAU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win, and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a victory.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.  Roll with UTEP Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last three games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with UTSA in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for UTSA.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final three games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Two games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  And last week they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 36.1 points per game, 504 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye two weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give UTSA all they want and more Saturday.

Conversely, UTSA will be playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.  The Roadrunners started showing signs of fatigue last week when they only beat FIU 30-10 as 33-point favorites.  Many have FIU as the single-worst FBS team in the country, right alongside UMass.  Now UTSA could easily be looking ahead to their next game against UAB, which could decide the C-USA title.  Either way, UTSA has been overvalued due to all their past success in recent seasons, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Plays on any team (North Texas) - an excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 yards per carry or more against a poor rush defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 8-0 ATS in their last eight conference games.  North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS In their last eight games following a win.  Take North Texas Saturday.

15* UCLA/Oregon FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +6.5

What more does UCLA have to do to prove they are for real?  They are 6-0 this season and just handled both Washington and Utah in their last two games.  They beat Washington 40-32 and Utah 42-32, a Utah team that many feel is the best in the Pac-12.  They racked up 502 total yards on a very good Utah defense.

I think UCLA is the better team and should not be catching nearly a touchdown against Oregon.  This game should be lined between the 3's worst case.  Oregon hasn't beaten anyone.  The Ducks are 5-1 this season with their five wins coming against Eastern Washington, Arizona, Stanford, Washington State and BYU.  When they really stepped up in class, they lost 49-3 to Georgia.  Keep in mind they were fortunate to escape with a 44-41 win over Washington State, too.

The numbers indicate the Bruins are the better team, too.  The Bruins average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by a whopping 2.2 yards per play.  Oregon averages 7.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  While still solid, those numbers don't compare to UCLA.

The Bruins have not forgotten their heartbreaking losses to the Ducks the past two seasons.  They lost 38-35 as 18.5-point dogs in 2020 and 34-31 as 1-point favorites last season.  This is the ultimate revenge game after two consecutive 3-point losses in this series.  And it's even more evidence this game should be lined closer to PK.

UCLA is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after playing a home games.  The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.  UCLA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Take UCLA Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -2.5

Northern Illinois won the MAC last season out of nowhere.  Expectations were high this season with 18 returning starters.  Unfortunately, they haven't won the close games like they did last year and have gotten off to a 2-5 start.  Four of the five losses came by 10 points or fewer.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Huskies this week.

It also hasn't helped that starting QB Rocky Lombardi has missed three of the losses due to injury.  Well, Lombardi returned last week to lead the Huskies to a dominant 39-10 upset victory at Eastern Michigan.  This offense is much more explosive with Lombardi in the lineup.  They outgained the Eagles by 184 yards in a dominant victory and their best defensive effort of the season.

Now they face an Ohio team coming off a misleading 33-14 win at Western Michigan.  The Broncos turned the ball over six times to hand the Bobcats the victory.  It's time to 'sell high' on Ohio after going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were outgained by 286 yards by Ken State in a 7-point loss.  They gave up 478 yards to a bad Akron team two games back.  And last week they only outgained Western Michigan by 50 yards.

Ohio has one of the worst defenses in the country and cannot be trusted as a result.  The Bobcats allow 36.9 points per game, 528 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on the season.  They are allowing 109 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents typically average on offense.  Northern Illinois has at least been respectable defensively, allowing 395 yards per game this season.

Plays against home underdogs (Ohio) - with a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

NIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record.  NIU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points.  Thomas Hammock is 8-0 ATS in road games following one or more consecutive unders as the coach of NIU.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Huskies.  Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

20* Syracuse/Clemson ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 50

Clemson and Georgia Tech have two of the best defenses in the country this season.  Syracuse is off to a 6-0 start largely due to their defense.  They rank 6th in the country in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game.  They are also 8th in total defense allowing 268.8 yards per game.

Clemson is 26th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  They are also 32nd in total defense at 341.7 yards per game.  They have played some really good offenses in Wake Forest, Florida State, NC State and Louisiana Tech already.  Syracuse may be the 5th-best offense they have faced this season.  They will shut down the Orange, who haven't seen a defense nearly as good as this Clemson stop unit.

Last year, Clemson beat Syracuse 17-14 for just 31 combined points. Four of the last five meetings have seen 51 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Both teams are run-heavy which will keep the clock moving.  Syracuse runs the ball 60% of the time and averages just 65 plays per game on offense, which is one of the lowest marks in the country.  Clemson runs the ball on 53% of the time.

Dino Babers is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a conference home win as a head coach.  Syracuse is 7-0 in its last seven games UNDER off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Clemson is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Points will be hard to come by in this battle of unbeatens.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* UAB/Western Kentucky C-USA No-Brainer on UAB ML +125

I like the spot and the matchup for the UAB Blazers and I expect them to pull off the upset over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers as a result.  UAB has only played six games this season while Western Kentucky has already played seven games.  The Blazers will be the fresher team, especially with this being a short week.

These teams have a common opponent in Middle Tennessee.  UAB crush Middle Tennessee 41-14 and outgained them by 245 yards while racking up 581 total yards.  Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee 35-17 and outgained them by 152 yards while racking up 443 total yards.  It was a comfortable win for the Hilltoppers, but not as dominant as UAB.

UAB rushes for 246 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  They are going to be able to run on this Western Kentucky defense.  They also have an efficient passing game, completing 64.7% for 206 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt.  And I really like this UAB defense, which holds opponents to 17.3 points per game, 320 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.

Western Kentucky relies heavily on throwing the football to score points.  They average 345 passing yards per game.  Well, UAB has one of the best pass defenses in the country.  The Blazers are holding opponents to 176 passing yards per game and 5.4 per attempt, holding them to 82 passing yards per game and 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages.

UAB is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a conference win.  The Blazers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  UAB is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UAB on the Money Line Friday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the country this season.  They have been an underdog in five of six games and a dog of 17 or more four times.  They have managed to get through it at 3-3 and have covered three straight coming in.

The sign of things to come was the misleading 27-10 loss to UCF as 21-point dogs.  They outgained the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  That showed what they were capable of, and that result looks even better now after UCF went on to blow out SMU and Temple the last two weeks since.

Georgia Tech then went on the road and upset Pittsburgh 26-21 as a 21.5-point underdogs.  And last time out they could have easily let down, instead they beat Duke 23-20 (OT) as a 3.5-point dog.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  The Yellow Jackets outgained the Blue Devils 412 to 278, or by 134 total yards.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Duke.  Virginia lost 17-38 to Duke and was held to just 295 yards while getting outgained by 82 yards.  The Cavaliers went on to lose 34-17 as a home favorite to Louisville and their backup quarterback while getting outgained by 154 yards.  The Cavaliers are now 2-4 this season with their only two wins coming at home against FCS Richmond and Old Dominion (16-14).

Tony Elliott is in over his head in his first season at Virginia this year.  They have a good QB in Brennan Armstrong, but their offensive line is terrible with five new starters and he doesn't have much time to do anything.  It won't get any easier against this underrated Georgia Tech defense that is holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play that average 6.3 per play, holding them to 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

20* Georgia State/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Georgia State +10

A lot was expected out of Georgia State after going 8-5 last season and returning 15 starters, including all of their studs on offense.  But a 2-4 start this season currently has them undervalued.  We'll take advantage and back them as 10-point underdogs to Appalachian State Wednesday night in this 'buy low' spot.

The Panthers have gotten it together of late after an 0-4 start.  They beat Army 31-14 on the road as 9-point underdogs, and followed it up with a 41-33 home win over Georgia Southern as 2.5-point favorites.  That's the same Georgia Southern team that just upset James Madison to hand the Dukes their first loss of the season.

Appalachian State is down this season and has been overvalued since that upset win over Texas A&M.  The Mountaineers are just 3-3 on the season.  They only have one win by more than 4 points this year, and that came against The Citadel as a 38.5-point favorite.  They were just upset as 19-point favorites against Texas State last time out, losing outright 36-24.

Georgia State is a great rushing team, averaging 234 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  Appalachian State has allowed 172 or more rushing yards three times this season.  The Panthers will be able to run the football on them to set up play-action.  They are also throwing for 202 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass with a dynamic offense this season.

Georgia State's defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Panthers have faced a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  They give up 6.0 yards per play against team that average 6.5 yards per play, so they are actually holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  

Keep in mind Georgia State has played such a tough schedule that they were underdogs in four of five games, so they have actually met expectations at 2-4.  App State has been favored in five of six games, yet has gone just 3-3.  The Mountaineers continue to be overvalued as double-digit favorites this week.

The Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Georgia State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Georgia State is 7-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher.  Bet Georgia State Wednesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -8.5

San Jose State looks like the cream of the crop in the Mountain West this season.  Remember, they won the Mountain West in 2020 before having a down 5-7 season last year.  But Brent Brennan is in his 6th season here and arguably the best head coach in the conference.  He has the Spartans back motivated to win another title in 2022.

San Jose State is off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their only loss came 16-24 at Auburn in which they hung right with an SEC opponent.  They proceeded to beat Western Michigan by 28, Wyoming by 17 and UNLV by 33.  That win over UNLV was no joke as the Rebels had been pretty good up to that point, and Wyoming has been playing well also.

Now the Spartans will beat up on a Fresno State team that has failed to meet expectations.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs have lost four consecutive games and are 0-5 ATS as well.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  San Jose State is far and away better than both teams.

Fresno State QB Logan Fife has been a disaster in Haener's place.  He has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has already thrown four interceptions.  He has also rushed for just 2 years on 20 attempts.  Fife and the Bulldogs will get nothing against this San Jose State defense, which is holding opponents to 14.0 points per game, 288 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.

Hawaii transfer Chandler Cordeiro has been awesome for the Spartans.  He has thrown for 1,308 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio through five games, while also rushing for 186 yards and six scores.  He leads a San Jose State offense that is averaging 28.8 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season.

The Spartans won't be afraid to run up the score, either.  They lost 40-9 at home to Haener and Fresno State last year and want revenge.  San Jose State is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Spartans are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays on any team (San Jose State) - after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games against an opponent that is off a loss by 17 points or more are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +3.5

Clemson's 6-0 record has them overvalued while Florida State's back-to-back losses to fall to 4-2 has them undervalued this week.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson and a great time to 'buy low' on Florida State, so we have the perfect storm here to get value on the Seminoles as home underdogs.

The numbers tell me that Florida State is actually the better team this season and should not be the underdog.  The Seminoles have played the 20th-toughest schedule in the country, while Clemson has played the 75th-toughest.  That difference in strength of schedule when you compare the numbers of these teams will help you understand why I like Florida State so much in this game.

The Seminoles have elite numbers.  They are averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 2.3 yards per play on the season.  Clemson averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  So Florida State is a full one yard per play better than Clemson and has played a much tougher schedule.  Yards per play are the most predictable stats in football when comparing how good teams are.  The Seminoles are elite in this category.

I like the fact that this is a night game in Tallahassee Saturday night with kickoff set for 7:30 EST.  It will be a raucous atmosphere with unbeaten Clemson coming to town.  The Tigers have escaped with some narrow victories over Wake Forest and NC State up to this point.  Their luck runs out in what will be their toughest test of the season to date Saturday night.

Clemson is 1-10 ATS when the total is 49.5 to 56 points over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 14 points or less.  Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4

This is the best team Mississippi State has had since Dak Prescott was in Starkville.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season with all five victories in blowout fashion by 18 points or more and their lone loss coming on the road at LSU.  That loss to LSU has had them undervalued the past two weeks and again this week.

The Bulldogs have promptly crushed Texas A&M 42-24 as 4-point home favorites and Arkansas 40-17 as 8-point home favorites.  There was nothing fluky about either of those victories.  The Bulldogs have solid numbers this season averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play on defense.

Kentucky has been overvalued since a 4-0 starts against a very soft schedule with three wins coming against Miami Ohio, Youngstown State and Northern Illinois by 8 as a 26-point favorite at home.  They lost 19-22 at Ole Miss, and then were upset 14-24 at home by a terrible South Carolina team last week.  QB Will Levis sat out that South Carolina game, and even if he returns this week he won't be 100%.

Mississippi State beat Kentucky 31-17 last season in what was a bigger blowout than the final score would even indicate.  The Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 438 to 216, or by 222 total yards.  But Kentucky had a punt return TD in that game that made it closer than it was.  Levis threw for just 150 yards on 28 attempts with 3 interceptions in the loss.  Mississippi State QB Will Rogers lit up the Wildcats, completing 36-of-39 passes for 344 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It should be more of the same in the rematch this season as the Bulldogs have gotten better in the offseason, while the Wildcats have gotten worse.

Kentucky is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after having won four or five of its last six games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - off a conference home win, with four or more returning starters than their opponent are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison -11.5

James Madison is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It takes oddsmakers a lot of time to catch up to how good teams are in college football, and conversely how bad they are based on preseason expectations.  Nothing was expected of the Dukes in their first season as an FBS school coming up from the FCS.

But the Dukes are quickly showing they are the best team in the Sun Belt and honestly one of the better teams in college football.  They aren't just winning, they are dominating.  The Dukes are scoring 44.2 points per game, averaging 489 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense.  They are allowing 15.0 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoirng opponents by 29.2 points per game and outgaining them by 256 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play.

Georgia Southern is also improved this season under first-year head coach Clay Helton.  They even pulled the 45-42 upset at Nebraska.  They are 3-3 this season with losses to UAB, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State.  They have a very good offense that is putting up 37.0 points per game, 492 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  So they can hang with the Dukes offensively.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, they aren't going to get any stops defensively.  They allow 30.3 points per game 457 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 26.8 points per game, 403 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  James Madison has the best defense that Georgia Southern has faced this season by far, and Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses that the Dukes will have faces this season.

The key handicap here is Georgia Southern's inability to stop James Madison's potent rushing attack.  The Dukes average 215 rushing yards per game, but they also have balance with 274 passing yards per game.  Georgia Southern allows 227 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry this season.  You can't simply fix a poor run defense in one week.  Conversely, James Madison only allows 46 rushing yards per game and 1.6 yards per carry this season.  The Dukes will be able to extend their lead in the second half by being able to run the football at will.  Roll with James Madison Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -7.5

A coaching change was just what the doctor ordered at Wisconsin.  Paul Chryst has been failing to meet expectations for several years now with the Badgers only making the Big Ten title game once the past four seasons despite playing in the easy West Division.  Players are clearly happy to move on to defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, a former Badger who was in line to be their next head coach anyway.

Boy did the players ever respond.  After falling 34-10 at home to Illinois that led to the firing of Chryst, the Badgers responded with a 42-7 trouncing of Northwestern last week.  That was a Northwestern team that had only lost by 10 at Penn State in their previous game.  The defense was as dominant as usual, and the offense had the biggest boost with a whopping 515 total yards.  Graham Mertz must be freed up the most, having a career game with 299 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in the win.

Now the Badgers will stomp a Michigan State team that has been overvalued this season due to going 11-2 last season.  The Spartans are a far cry from that team this season.  Signing Mel Tucker to a new contract was not the right move.  He has lost this team after a 2-0 start with wins over lowly Western Michigan and Akron.

The Spartans proceeded to go 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive.  They lost 28-39 at Washington and gave up 503 total yards.  They lost 7-34 at home to Minnesota and gave up 508 total yards.  They lost 27-13 at Maryland and allowed 489 total yards.  And last week they lost 20-49 at home to Ohio State and gave up 614 total yards.  They were outgained by 412 total yards by the Buckeyes in what was an even bigger blowout than 29-point loss showed.

So we have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers after their disappointing 3-3 start.  They are a much better team than they have shown and have a high ceiling now with Leonhard at the helm and the talent on this roster.  I don't see it getting better for the Spartans any time soon because they cannot stop anyone defensively, and they only rush for 109 yards per game on offense so they have no balance, putting a ton of pressure on QB Payton Thorne that he cannot handle.

The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Wisconsin is a similar team to Minnesota, and I expect this to be similar to the 34-7 victory the Gophers had at Michigan State earlier this season.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +7.5

What more does Tennessee have to do to prove they are for real?  They will this week when they give Alabama a run for its money and likely pull off the upset.  It will be one of the best atmospheres in Tennessee ever for this game, so the Vols are going to have a huge home-field advantage.  The Vols are 5-0 and legit national title contenders.

I was on Tennessee last week when they blasted LSU 40-13 on the road as 2.5-point favorites.  They were coming off a bye, so they will still be fresh for this game against the Crimson Tide.  The Vols are elite on both sides of the football.  While the offense gets all the attention, it's the underrated defense that makes them title contenders and gives them a shot to pull off this upset.

Indeed, the Vols are only allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.2 yards per play, holding opponents to 11.6 points per game and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages.  They are scoring 46.8 points per game and averaging 7.2 yards per play, scoring 18.4 points per game and averaging 1.5 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.

So they are outgaining teams by 2.0 yards per play on the season, which is elite.  The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 41-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  He will keep the Vols in this game for four quarters.

Alabama has escaped with a couple victories at Texas 20-19 and at home against Texas A&M 24-20.  They are fortunate to be 6-0.  I know Bryce Young is likely back at QB this week, but he won't be 100% with the AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder.  Even if he was 100%, the Vols could hang just as Texas did with Young in there.

Alabama rushes for 258 yards per game this season.  To be able to hang with Alabama, you have to be able to stop the run.  Tennessee is up to the challenge.  The Vols only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt, holding opponents to 71 yards per game and 1.8 per attempt less than their season averages.

Plays against road favorites (Alabama) - after one or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive wins are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a passing of the torch moment and Tennessee's best chance to beat Alabama since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +17

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Texas Longhorns off their 49-0 dismantling of Oklahoma.  They will be feeling fat and happy after ending their four-game losing streak to their biggest rivals in the Sooners.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face Iowa State this week, and they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for because of it.

Keep in mind everyone is dominating Oklahoma right now.  Kansas State upset them on the road.  Dillon Gabriel got hurt against TCU when they were already getting blasted and eventually lost 55-24.  That's the same TCU team that should have lost to Kansas last week.  The Longhorns beat Oklahoma without Gabriel, and somehow the Sooners don't have a capable backup quarterback.

It's also an 'Oklahoma sandwich' for the Longhorns with Oklahoma State on deck next week.  That game could decide the Big 12 title.  In the meantime the Longhorns have to face a pesky Iowa State team that could easily be 6-0 right now instead of 3-3.  But because of that poor record, it's time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones off three consecutive defeats.

Iowa State's losing streak started with a 31-24 home loss to Baylor, which may be the best team in the Big 12.  It continued with a 14-11 loss at Kansas in which the Cyclones outgained the Jayhawks 313 to 213 but missed three field goals and should have won.  And last week they lost 10-9 to Kansas State at home.  Kansas State's only touchdown came on a broken play early, and the Cyclones shut them down the rest the way.

Iowa State's elite defense can keep them in this game.  The Cyclones only allow 13.7 points, per game, 278 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that normally average 27.3 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 13.6 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play less than their season averages.  They'll come up with a game plan to slow down Ewers and this Texas offense.

Iowa State is not an easy team to blow out.  In fact, the Cyclones have only lost by more than 17 points once in their 70 games over the past six seasons, and that was a 33-9 loss to Notre Dame in the 2019 Camping World Bowl.  That makes for a 69-1 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 17-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Baylor/West Virginia FS1 No-Brainer on Baylor -3

The numbers show the Baylor Bears are the way better team in this matchup.  That's why I'm willing to lay the -3 on the road with them despite the fact that Morgantown is usually a tough place to play and I'm normally looking to back the Mountaineers at home.  I think the Bears get the job done by more than a field goal Thursday night.

Baylor and West Virginia have played similar strength of schedules, so the numbers tell the story pretty accurately here.  Baylor is outscoring opponents 37.4 to 20.6 on average this season, while West Virginia is only outscoring foes 38.2 to 29.6 on average.  The more telling stats are yards per play.  Baylor averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 on defense, outgaining teams by 1.6 yards per play.  WVU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.7 on defense, only outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play.

West Virginia was just blasted 38-20 at Texas in its last game.  That was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as it was 35-7 entering the 4th quarter.  The Mountaineers scored a couple garbage time touchdowns.  They also lost arguably their best weapon on offense in RB CJ Donaldson to a concussion, and he will be out Thursday.  He has rushed for 389 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 6.9 per carry.  His backup Mathis Jr. only averages 4.2 yards per carry, so it's a big downgrade.

Baylor could easily be 5-0 right now instead of 3-2.  The Bears blew the game in OT in a 26-20 loss at BYU.  They played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 25-36 final would indicate.  Baylor had 457 total yards against Oklahoma State and held the Cowboys to a season-low 379 yards.  But they gave up 9 points on a kickoff return and a safety that was the difference.  If they were 5-0 instead of 3-2, they would be bigger favorites.

Baylor blasted West Virginia 45-20 at home last season.  The Bears had 525 total yards and allowed 362 to the Mountaineers, outgaining them by 163 yards.  The key to this victory will be Baylor winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Baylor only allows 2.8 yards per carry this season, and now WVU won't have the threat of a running game without Donaldson.  WVU QB JT Daniels is going to be under pressure the entire game.

The Bears are 20-4-2 ATS int heir last 26 games following an ATS loss.  West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +13

The Arizona Wildcats were much more competitive than their 1-11 record would indicate last season.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are off to a 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS start despite being underdogs in four of five games.  They pulled the upsets over San Diego State and North Dakota State with their only losses coming to Mississippi State and California in games they were competitive deep into the 2nd half.

Now they take on Oregon, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Ducks after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games against a pretty soft schedule with three home wins and a fortunate 44-41 win at Washington State.  Their other road game resulted in a 49-3 loss to Georgia.  They have a big home/away discrepancy.

Arizona lost 41-19 at Oregon last year in what was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  Arizona actually outgained Oregon 435 to 393 in that game, but gave it away by being -5 in turnovers.  The Wildcats are vastly improved this season, and a big part of that is Washington State transfer QB Jayden de Laura.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes for 1,633 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 60 yards and a score.  He can keep the Wildcats in this game for four quarters.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 yards per play or more in two consecutive games are 80-32 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Oregon is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Oregon.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +17.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Army.  They are off to a disappointing 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start against a tough schedule.  They have played arguably the best team in the Sun Belt in Coastal Carolina and lost by 10.  They also lost to arguably the best team in Conference USA in UTA by 3.  Their 14-31 loss to Georgia State last week as a 9-point favorite is what is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on them.  They rushed for 354 yards in that game, but gave the game away by committing three turnovers.

Wake Forest is in a massive letdown spot.  The Demon Deacons are coming off three straight hard-fought games.  They were nearly upset by Liberty in a 37-36 win.  They were probably looking ahead to Clemson, who they lost to 45-51 in double-OT.  They bounced back last week with a 31-21 upset win at Florida State.  I just don't think the Demon Deacons have much left in the tank.  They really needed a bye this week, but instead they will have to face Army's triple-option, which isn't fun to prepare for let alone face.

Last year, Army kept Pace with Wake Forest in a 70-56 home loss as 3-point underdogs.  Both teams have similar returning starters, but now Wake Forest is a 17.5-point favorite in the rematch, a 14.5-point adjustment.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons after a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  This is the spot they let down similar to when they nearly let Liberty beat them three weeks ago at home.

Jeff Monken is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights have played 29 games over the past three seasons.  They've only lost once by more than 17 points.  That makes for a 28-1 system backing the Black Knights pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.  Take Army Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  They are coming off two losses to Baylor and Kansas by a combined 10 points in which they arguably could have won both.  Look for them to give an 'A' effort here to try and avoid a three-game losing streak.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on Kansas State.  They are coming off two straight wins and covers against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  Of course, that win over Oklahoma doesn't look nearly as good after the Sooners were just blasted 55-24 by TCU last week.  And Texas Tech is one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and they only won by 37-28 at home despite forcing four turnovers.

I love the matchup for the Cyclones.  They rank 7th in the country against the run, allowing just 83 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  Kansas State relies on moving the football on ground, averaging 267 rushing yards per game compared to only 139 passing yards.

Adrian Martinez is beating teams with his legs rather than his arm.  Well, we saw what Iowa State did to Kansas last week.  Nobody had been able to stop Kansas dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels up to that point.  Iowa State held him to just 9 rushing yards on 8 carries, and 7-of-14 passing for 93 yards.  And he's a better passer than Martinez.  The Cyclones held that high-powered Kansas offense to just 213 total yards and 10 first downs.  They would have won the game if not for 3 missed field goals.  They will hold Martinez in check this week as well.

Kansas State may have the slightly better offense than Iowa State, but it's close.  There's no debate that Iowa State has the better defense.  They are holding teams to 256 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this season, while K-State is allowing 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  So I'm getting the better defense as a home underdog in what is a home run spot where they need this win like blood to avoid their third consecutive defeat.

Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game.  The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings after winning 33-20 on the road last year and 45-0 at home in 2020.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -3

I love the spot for Louisiana Tech.  They are coming off a bye week after a 1-3 start this season.  They have played a brutal schedule with their three losses all coming on the road to Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama, while they crushed Stephen F. Austin 52-17 as 6.5-point favorites in their lone home game.  

The bye came at a great time after this brutal schedule so they can regroup and get ready for conference play.  Byes also tend to benefit teams more with a first-year head coach like the Bulldogs have in Sonny Cumbie.  Turnovers have been the biggest issue for the Bulldogs as they have committed 12 in those three road losses.  Look for them to focus on ball security in practice for two weeks, and to come out with a big effort here Saturday night as they take a big step down in class against UTEP.

This is a terrible spot for the Miners.  They are a tired team right now as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week to start the season.  They are in a letdown spot after upsetting Boise State 27-10 at home followed by a 41-35 win as 3.5-point favorites at Charlotte last week.  That shootout win will have taken a lot out of them.  Now they have to travel back to the Eastern Time Zone for a 2nd consecutive week, just amplifying their fatigue factor.

Keep in mind this UTEP team also has bad losses to North Texas 31-13 and New Mexico 27-10.  They have played the easier strength of schedule with their other win coming against New Mexico State.  Their numbers are not very good as they average 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally average giving up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  They average 20.7 points per game against teams that normally allow 30.2 points per game.  

To compare, LA Tech is actually averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense against teams that normally give up only 5.5 per play on defense.  Look for them to have one of their best offensive performances of the season this week similar to what they had against Stephen F. Austin when they scored 52 points and had 515 total yards against a quality FCS opponent.

LA Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week.  UTEP is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3.5

East Carolina is better than Tulane, period.  The Pirates should not be underdogs in this game, especially against a Tulane team that was down to their third-string QB against Houston last week.  They are overvalued due to winning that game 27-24 in a game they had no business winning.  They were outgained 273 to 383 by Houston, or by 110 total yards.

This line indicates the Green Wave will get QB Michael Pratt back this week from a shoulder injury even though he's listed as questionable.  But it's not going to matter.  The Green Wave are a fraudulent 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  This is a team that went 2-10 last season and is exceeding expectations and getting too much respect now as a result.

East Carolina is 3-2 and should be 5-0.  They have outgained all five opponents this season.  That includes their 20-21 loss to NC State in which they missed an extra point late.  They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 3-point OT loss, so they are 4 points away from being undefeated.  They have elite numbers on both sides of the football despite playing a pretty tough schedule.

East Carolina is averaging 35.2 points per game, 486 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense.  They are only giving up 20.6 points per game, 371 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  I love their balanced offense that averages 172 yards per game on the ground and 314 yards per game through the air.  Holton Ahlers is arguably the best QB in the conference.  He is completing 68.6% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 81 yards and a score.

East Carolina crushed Tulane 52-29 last year and gained 612 total yards in a dominant effort.  Ahlers threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed for a score.  The Pirates are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as road underdogs of 7 points or less.  Tulane is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games off a close road win by 3 points or less, losing by a whopping 27.6 points per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave get exposed this week.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +28

Cincinnati isn't as good as last year when they made the four-team playoff.  Making the playoff has them overvalued this season.  No question the Bearcats are still the class of the AAC, but they should not be favored by four touchdowns over South Florida this week.

Their only win this season by more than 21 points came against Keenesaw State as a 29-point favorite.  They also beat Miami Ohio by 21 and their backup QB.  They only outgained a bad Indiana team by 46 yards in a misleading 45-24 final.  And last week they only outgained Tulsa by 79 yards in a 10-point victory.

I'm not high on South Florida as I faded them last week with a free pick on East Carolina that cashed in a 48-28 win as 9.5-point favorites.  However, I was impressed that USF kept trying to punch back after getting down big early.  And we've seen them nearly upset Florida in a 28-31 loss as 23-point road underdogs.  If they were 23-point road dogs to Florida, they should not be 28-point dogs to Cincinnati.

USF just owns Cincinnati from a point spread perspective.  Indeed, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS In the last seven meetings.  In fact, dating back to 2003, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of their 19 meetings.  That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 28-point spread.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* TCU/Kansas FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke two weeks ago, a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 in all other games this season.  

Last week, it seemed everyone thought they'd lose to Iowa State, but they pulled out the 14-11 upset as 3.5-point underdogs and I backed them again.  I'm back on them again this week because they are still getting disrespected as 7-point home underdogs to TCU.  ESPN College Gameday will be in Lawrence this week to cover this team and their 5-0 start, so there will be no letdown for the Jayhawks, especially learning that they are underdogs again.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 41.6 points per game, 421.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 385 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.1 yards per play.  Their defense showed last week they could win a game for them when needed.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 220 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry.  They are also completing 68.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

I think this is a bad spot for TCU, and they are getting way too much respect for their 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma.  That's the same Oklahoma team that was upset by Kansas State at home the previous week and clearly has issues.  Plus, Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel got injured in the first half against TCU, and they were doomed from there.  But unlike Kansas, TCU is getting respect for its 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They will meet their match this week in the Jayhawks.

The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and covering by 16.3 points per game.  That includes their 28-31 loss at TCU as 21-point dogs last year, which they will be out for revenge for to add to their motivation.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Roll with Kansas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan/Indiana UNDER 59

Indiana isn't going to be able to score enough on this elite Michigan defense to be able to top 59 combined points.  The books have missed their mark badly with this one.  The Hoosiers have some serious injury issues at receiver that are hampering their offense.  Two starters in Cam Camper and DJ Matthews are questionable while both Smith and Baker are out.

The Hoosiers managed just 21 points and 290 total yards against a terrible Nebraska defense last week.  That's the same Nebraska defense that gave up 49 points to Oklahoma, 45 to Georgia Southern and 31 to Northwestern.  This Indiana offense is only averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they do have a solid defense that is allowing 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 6.0 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.

Michigan has another elite defense this season in allowing just 11.6 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Michigan loves to run the football, averaging 40 rush attempts per game compared to 25 passing.  They will get off to a big early lead and then sit on it with their running game, which will help us cash this UNDER ticket.

These teams combined for just 36 points last season.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between Michigan and Indiana have seen 59 or fewer combined points, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have combined for an average of just 44.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Indiana) - after one or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 70-29 (70.7%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -2.5

I love this spot for the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off a bye week after their big win over Florida.  Now they have two full weeks to prepare for the LSU Tigers and will be the fresher team.  And I don't think the country has caught up to how good the Volunteers are this season.  They are legitimate SEC title contenders.

The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 39-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  Hooker and Josh Heupel have this offense humming, averaging 48.5 points per game, 559.3 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play against opponents that normally allow 31 points per game, 414 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

The defense is holding opponents to 19.0 points per game and 5.3 yards per play against offenses that normally average 27.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Florida put up a lot of points and yards late to hurt those averages when the game was already decided, and that was really a misleading 38-33 final.

I just don't think LSU is very good and it's going to take some time for Brian Kelly to get them back to SEC title contention.  They lost to Florida State in the opener before reeling off three straight home wins with two of them coming against Southern and New Mexico.  The Mississippi State win was a good one, so they deserve credit for that.

But last week's 21-17 win at Auburn was very alarming.  That's an Auburn team that is way down this season and nearly lost to both San Jose State and Missouri at home.  They were outgained 438 to 270 by Auburn, or by 168 total yards.  Auburn gave that game away by committing four turnovers, including one that was returned for a TD when they led 17-0.  That's also an Auburn team that lost 41-12 at home to Penn State and was playing with a backup QB against LSU.

Now LSU will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, while Tennessee comes in rested and ready to go.  Fatigue and injuries will catch up with the Tigers this week.  I also like a hidden factor here, which is that the kickoff is at 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon.  Baton Rouge at night is a much more difficult place to play than Baton Rouge in the early window on Saturday's.

The road team is 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Tennessee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* UNLV/SJSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country.  There has been nothing fluky about their 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their lone loss came on the road to Cal as 13-point underdogs by a final of 20-14.  They won their other four games by double-digits by 31 over Idaho State, by 31 over North Texas, by 10 over Utah State and by 11 over New Mexico.

Doug Brumfield is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and gets no national attention.  He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,223 yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores.  It has been a balanced offensive attack that has been tough to tame with the Rebels averaging 169 yards on the ground and 254 yards through the air.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game.

The Rebels have an improved defense this season as well.  They are allowing just 22.4 points per game, 356.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  This is at least an average defense now, plus one of the best offenses in the MAC.  They should be able to give San Jose State all they can handle in this one.

I think San Jose State is getting too much credit for its 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The lone loss came at Auburn, and while it was competitive, Auburn is way down this season.  They only beat Portland State by 4 as 22-point favorites.  They beat a Western Michigan team that was playing with a freshman QB and a Wyoming team that was playing with another terrible QB.  They have faced four bad quarterbacks this season and haven't faced anyone nearly as talented as Brumfeld.

A bad UNLV team gave San Jose State a run for its money last year in a 27-20 defeat.  I think both teams are improved, but there's no question the Rebels are more improved.  These teams have faced similar strength of schedules and have similar numbers.  UNLV is outgaining teams by 66 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play, while San Jose State is outgaining teams by 61 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.  This game should be lined much closer to PK than -7.

Brent Brennan is 0-7 ATS in home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points as the coach of San Jose State having never covered in this spot with the Spartans losing by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* SMU/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU +3

The SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 this season but I've been very impressed with them.  After beating North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16 to open the season, they lost a pair of one-score games to Maryland and TCU, two Power 5 opponents.  Those also happen to be two of the most improved teams in the country.

SMU lost 27-34 at Maryland and should have won that game.  They gained 520 yards on the Terrapins and outgained them by 79 yards.  That's the same Maryland team that almost beat Michigan on the road, and that came back to crush Michigan State 27-13 at home.

SMU also lost 34-42 at home to TCU as a 2.5-point underdog.  The Mustangs gained 476 yards on the Horned Frogs and were only outgained by 11 yards.  That's the same TCU team that is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and coming off a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog.

UCF has played a much softer schedule and is 3-1 SU despite being favored in all four games.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 before losing to Louisville 14-20 as a 5.5-point favorite.  THey beat FAU 40-14 on the road before topping Georgia Tech 27-10 at home.  But that win over awful Georgia Tech was very misleading.  The Knights actually gave up 452 yards to the Yellow Jackets and were outgained by 119 yards.  They allowed 314 passing yards to what is a poor GT passing offense.

SMU crushed UCF 55-28 last season as a 7-point home favorite.  They had 36 first downs compared to just 15 for UCF and outgained them 631 to 333, or by 298 total yards.  Now the Mustangs come back as a 3-point underdog a year later.  Their offense is as potent as it was last year, and their defense is better than it was expected to be as well.

SMU is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.8 yards per play, averaging 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow.  SMU is allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.2 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  Those are elite numbers compared to UCF, which is at 6.1  yards per play on offense against teams that allow 6.1 per play on defense, and 5.0 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.1 yards per play on offense.

UCF is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 conference games.  Bet SMU Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +23

It's time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets after a 1-3 start against a brutal schedule and some misleading results mixed in.  The three losses have come to Clemson, Ole Miss and UCF as the Yellow Jackets have played the 8th-toughest schedule in the country.

They were in a dog fight with Clemson in the opener in what was a 14-10 game late in the 3rd quarter before the Tigers scored 27 unanswered points to finish, including two touchdowns in the final six minutes.  They were only outgained by 141 yards by the Tigers.

Last week, Georgia Tech lost 27-10 at UCF despite outgaining the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  They arguably should have pulled the outright upset as 21-point dogs, but lost by 17.  These misleading finals and difficult schedule have the Yellow Jackets undervalued.

I was looking to fade Pitt coming into the season with all they lost in the offseason.  The Panthers were overvalued after winning the ACC last year.  They lost QB Kenny Pickett and star receiver Jordan Addison.  Those players have proven to be irreplaceable as Kedon Slovis is a big downgrade at QB.

Pitt is 3-1 but should be 2-2.  They lost to Tennessee in OT, and they beat WVU by 7 only after a fluky pick-6 to go ahead in the final minutes.  The other two wins came against overmatched Western Michigan and Rhode Island teams.  The Panthers are just 1-3 ATS this season and have proven to be good fade material, and I expect them to continue to be good fade material in this spot this week.

Georgia Tech's numbers are pretty good.  They average 0.1 yards per play less on offense than their opponents give up on average (5.1 to 5.2), and they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average (5.5 to 6.1).  Pitt is averaging only 0.1 yards per play more on offense than their opponents give up on average, and holding opponents to 0.8 yards per play less than their season average.

Plays on road teams (Georgia Tech) - off one or more consecutive unders, a poor offensive team that is scoring 17 or fewer points per game are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  They only beat Rhode Island by 21 as 34.5-point favorites in their last home games.  The Yellow Jackets can easily stay within 21 as well.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5

It's no surprise that the LSU Tigers are improving rapidly as the season goes on under first-head head coach Brian Kelly, who is one of the best in the country.  The 23-24 loss to Florida State in the opener doesn't look that bad now when we've seen what the Seminoles have done since.

LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since with a 65-17 win over Southern, a 31-16 win over a very good Mississippi State team outright as underdogs, and a 38-0 win over New Mexico as 31-point favorites.  The injuries have gone LSU's way leading into this game.

QB Jayden Daniels left in the 3rd quarter with a lower back injury against New Mexico.  He didn't return despite being cleared, and it was more for precautionary reasons with the game already in hand.  He should be playing this week.  Starting nickel Jay Ward missed last game but returned to practice this week.  RB Armoni Goodwin is day-to-day but likely to play as well.  Edge rusher BJ Ojulari was held out against the Lobos as a precaution.

While LSU is a team I want shares of moving forward, I want to sell all my Auburn stock.  Brian Harsin is on the hot seat and I'm be surprised if he survives the season after going 6-7 year.  The Tigers should be 2-2 as they were gifted a win last week by Missouri.  Missouri missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation, then fumbled going into the end zone for the game winning score in OT.  Auburn did everything in their power to give Missouri the game.

That came after an ugly 12-41 home loss to Penn State.  LSU is better than Penn State, and I think it will be a similar blowout.  Auburn barely beat San Jose State 24-16 the week prior as 24-point favorites, and failed to cover against Mercer in a 42-16 win as 30-point favorites in the opener.  Auburn is now 0-4 ATS this season and about to fall to 0-5 ATS this week.

Making matters worse for Auburn is that they are going to be without starting QB TJ Finley this week.  Backup Zach Calzada is out with injury as well, and third-string freshman Robby Ashford has not been good.  He has completed just 27-of-47 passes for 372 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while playing in parts of all four games.

Auburn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  Plays on road teams (LSU) - allowing 200 or fewer total yards per game in their last two games, with an experienced QB vs. an opponent with an inexperienced QB are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1992.  Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet LSU Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Troy +5.5

I was high on Troy coming into the season and they have delivered.  The Trojans returned 18 starters this season.  They opened with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss as 21.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 87 yards.  Ole Miss appears to be one of the best teams in the country.  They followed it up with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.

They should be 3-1, losing 32-28 at Appalachian State on a fluke hail mary on the final play of the game as 14-point underdogs.  App State is the king of the Sun Belt, so the fact that they should have beaten them says all you need to know.  And had they beaten them, they certainly would not be 5.5-point underdogs this week.

I was impressed with how Troy got back up off the mat and upset Marshall 16-7 as 3.5-point underdogs last week.  That's the same Marshall team that had upset Notre Dame on the road earlier this season.  The Trojans dominated more than the final score would suggest, too.  They outgained Marshall 421 to 174, or by 247 total yards and should have won by more even.

Troy has arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt and a much improved offense this season led by Gunnar Watson, who is averaging 312 passing yards per game and completing 66.4% of his passes despite the tough competition.  He and the Trojans have done this against the 43rd-ranked schedule in the country.

You know who hasn't played a tough schedule? That's Western Kentucky.  They have played the 175th-ranked schedule in the country.  They are getting too much respect for their 3-1 start with the three wins coming against Hawaii, FIU and Austin Peay.  FIU and Hawaii may be the two worst teams in FBS, and Austin Peay is one of the worst teams in FCS.  They did play Indiana tough in their lone loss, but Indiana isn't very good this year, either.

I was down on Western Kentucky coming into the season because they only returned 11 starters and lost all of their top playmakers from last season.  They lost QB Bailey Zappe and his 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, plus his top two receivers in Sterns and Tinsley who combined for 3,304 yards and 31 touchdowns last year.  The offensive numbers are gaudy again this season, but that's more due to the lack of competition.  It's time to 'sell high' on this WKU team off that 73-0 win over FIU.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WKU) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams averaging 8.3 or more yards per attempt, after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. Sun Belt foes.  I'll gladly take Sun Belt over C-USA in this matchup as I strongly believe the Trojans are the better, more complete team.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/North Texas OVER 67.5

Expect some offensive fireworks between Florida Atlantic and North Texas Saturday and little defense being played.  These are two of the most up-tempo offenses in the country, and that's going to help us cash this OVER 67.5 ticket.

North Texas is scoring 32.2 points per game, averaging 475 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season while running 74 plays per game.  FAU is scoring 32.6 points per game, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while running 73 plays per game.

Both defenses can be had, especially North Texas.  The Mean Green are allowing 38.0 points per game, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while defending 74 plays per game.  The Owls are allowing 26.2 points per game, 402 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play and 68 plays per game against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play, so they have a below average defense and haven't faced many good offenses.  They even got to play Purdue last week without their starting QB.

North Texas is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Mean Green last six games following a loss.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas +3

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke last week, a Blue Devils team that was 3-0 coming into that game.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 48.5 points per game, 472.5 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 400 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.3 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They are also completing 71.3% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Despite the 4-0 start against solid competition, Kansas is unranked.  I think the Jayhawks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder again this week because of it.  They won't have a letdown because they want that respect and to avenge a blowout loss at Iowa State last year.  This is an Iowa State team that isn't nearly as talented as they were last season.

The Cyclones are 3-1 but the three wins came against three terrible teams in SE Missouri State, Iowa and Ohio.  They met their match last week with a 24-31 home loss to Baylor.  And now this will be their toughest road test of the season against a Kansas team that fans are excited about, selling out last week against Duke.  It will be another sellout Saturday against the Cyclones.

Iowa State is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage above 75% over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and covering by 18.1 points per game.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +26.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats.  After opening the season with a 31-28 upset win as 10.5-point dogs to Nebraska in the opener, the Wildcats have promptly gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all as favorites.  Now they are back in their preferred underdog role, which is where Pat Fitzgerald always seems to get the most out of his teams.

Turnover luck has not been on the Wildcats' side as they have already committed 10 turnovers in four games, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  They have moved the football just fine with an improved offense that is putting up 447.3 yards per game this season.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 55 yards per game despite the 1-3 record.  They will make enough plays on offense to stay within this inflated number against Penn State.

Penn State struggled last week in a 33-14 win over Central Michigan as 28-point favorites.  And it's worth noting the Chippewas were -4 in turnovers and still only lost by 19.  That makes me believe Northwestern can stay within this number if Central Michigan did.  I also think Penn State could be looking ahead to their showdown with Michigan.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nittany Lions after a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  Turnover luck has been on their side as they are +8 in turnovers through four games.

Northwestern is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after a loss by 3 points or less.  Pat Fitzgerald is 34-21 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5

Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game last year.  I don't see anything changing in the rematch this year.  Michigan looks as good if not better than last year when they made the four-team playoff, and Iowa looks worse to this point.

After crushing Colorado State by 44, Hawaii by 46 and UConn by 59, Michigan finally got tested last week in a 34-27 win over Maryland as 17-point favorites.  I was happy to see Michigan get tested, and that will serve them well moving forward.  That's a vastly improved Maryland team that is going to give a lot of people trouble in the Big Ten this season.

Iowa's offense is not going to give Michigan any trouble.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 17.0 points per game, 232.5 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season despite playing a pretty soft schedule of South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers.  Their 27-10 win over Rutgers last week was very misleading as they scored two defensive touchdowns and were outgained by 84 yards by the Scarlet Knights.  That misleading score is providing us with some line value on Michigan this week.

Spencer Petras is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing just 51.1% of his passes for 524 yards and 5.6 per attempt with only one touchdown and two interceptions in four games.  Usually Iowa can rely on its running game amidst poor QB play, but that's not the case this season.  They have one of the worst offensive lines of the Kirk Ferentz era.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 102 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  

I just don't see how Iowa is going to be able to score enough points to stay within this number.  Their only hope is to get defensive and special teams touchdowns, but that's not going to happen.  Michigan has been mistake-free for the most part committing only two turnovers in four games.  Michigan's offense is even more potent this year with the switch to J.J. McCarthy at QB.  He is completing 80% of his passes and averaging 11.6 yards per attempt with a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio while taking over for Cade McNamara.

Iowa has some injuries that are also contributing to its poor start this season.  Three of the top four receivers on the depth chart are out in Johnson, Vines and Ritter.  Two starters are out on defense in LB Jestin Jacobs and CB Jermari Harris as well.  Michigan is very healthy with only McNamara out, but that's addition by subtraction.  LB Hill-Green and LG Trevor Keegan are both questionable.

Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a win against a conference rival are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Kirk Ferentz is 0-7 ATS in home games after leading in the last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa.  Take Michigan Saturday.

20* Washington/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 66

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the UNDER between UCLA and Washington Friday night.  Both teams are 4-0 and both have put up gaudy numbers on offense against suspect competition defensively.  That has inflated this total to the point where there's value with the UNDER.

Washington is scoring 44.0 points per game and putting up 530.8 yards per game this season.  But they have played four terrible defenses in Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State and Stanford.  UCLA is averaging 41.8 points per game and 508.3 yards per game, but those numbers have also come against four terrible defenses in Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama and Colorado.

These two offenses will finally meet some resistance against the best defenses they will have faced all season, and it's not even close.  UCLA is allowing just 18.0 points per game, 301.0 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Washington is allowing just 19.0 points per game, 302.0 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  And that has come against three decent offenses in Michigan State, Stanford and Kent State.

These teams met last season with UCLA beating Washington 24-17 for just 41 combined points and a 55-point total.  This total is now 11 points higher than last year.  I get that Washington is a better offensive team under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, but this is too big of an adjustment.

Both teams rely heavily on the run, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Bruins average 38 attempts and 220 yards per game, while the Huskies average 36 attempts for 162 yards per game.  Both teams are elite at stopping the run.  The Huskies are allowing just 89 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, while the Bruins are giving up 90 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games against an opponent that has two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored are 62-27 (69.7%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Huskies last 26 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bruins last 24 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Tulane/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars.  They have played a very tough schedule and have gotten through it at 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost to Texas Tech and Kansas, beat UTSA which won 12 games last year, and also beat an improved Rice team that upset Louisiana the previous week.

Remember, Houston went 12-2 last year and returned 13 starters this season including QB Clayton Tune and stud receiver Tank Dell.  This isn't the start they wanted, but they realize they have everything ahead of them in the American Athletic.  Now they will be pumped for their conference opener Friday night as they host Tulane.

While Houston (36th) has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, Tulane (166th) has played one of the weakest.  The result has been a 3-1 start that featured an upset win at Kansas State.  That win had them overvalued last week, and I took advantage and backed Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles beat the Green Wave outright as 13-point underdogs.  And I'll gladly fade Tulane again as I still believe them to be overvalued from that K-State win.

Remember, Tulane went 2-10 last year.  No question the Green Wave are improved this season, but they should not be basically a PK on the road at Houston.  The Cougars have owned the Green Wave each of the last two seasons.  They won 49-31 at home in 2020 and 40-22 on the road in 2021.  Tune has thrown for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns in those two victories and figures to light them up again.  This game may be closer than the last two years, but Houston should still get it done by a FG or more.

The Green Wave are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.  The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cougars are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Tulane is 2-7 ATS in its last nine trips to Houston.  Roll with Houston Friday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 62

The Utah State Aggies and BYU Cougars play in a rivalry game Thursday night in Provo.  I look for points to be at a premium in this rivalry game.  BYU will get their points, but I don't think Utah State will do their part to score enough to get to 62 combined points in this one.

Utah State is way down compared to last season offensively.  The Aggies lost all of their top playmakers from last year's team.  It hasn't gone nearly as smoothly for QB Logan Bonner as it did last year.  The Aggies are only averaging 15.5 points, 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  This despite playing UConn, FCS Weber State and UNLV, which are three terrible defenses.  But the Aggies have held their own defensively, allowing just 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 5.9 yards per play.

Like I said, BYU will get their points, but I expect them to shut down Utah State.  The Cougars have a ton of talent on defense with all 11 starters back from last year.  They are holding teams to just 321.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play, holding teams 66 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages to this point.

These teams met last year with BYU winning 34-20 for just 54 combined points and a 65.5-point total.  That was with an elite Utah State offense last year.  They have only adjusted this total down 3.5 points from last year, and that's not enough for how down Utah State's offense is.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Aggies last five games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Cougars last eight Thursday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Aggies last seven games following an ATS loss.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +13

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB's on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hall.  Now Hall enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

To no surprise to myself, the Golden Eagles are 3-0 ATS this season.  I took them and they covered in a 27-29 loss as 3.5-point underdogs to Liberty in the opener.  That's a Liberty team that nearly upset Wake Forest last week, losing 36-37 as 18-point road underdogs.  Unfortunately, QB Ty Keyes got injured in that opener against Liberty and it's probably the reason they lost.

Keyes sat out against Miami in Week 2, but they still managed to cover in a 30-7 loss at 27-point underdogs.  But Keyes returned last week to lead the Golden Eagles to a 64-10 win over Northwestern State as 34-point favorites.  He went 6-of-9 for 192 yards and three touchdowns before giving way to the backups.  He is a dual threat who has also rushed for 56 yards and a score on 12 carries this season.  Despite the tough schedule, the defense is balling out again holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 375 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 3-0 ATS, but this team is the one being overvalued.  That's because the Green Wave are coming off a shocking 17-10 upset win as 13-point dogs at Kansas State.  But K-State is getting terrible QB play this season from Adrian Martinez, and it was a massive lookahead spot for the Wildcats with Oklahoma on deck this week.

Tulane's other two wins came against UMass and Alcorn State.  Those are two of the worst teams in the country in FBS and FCS, respectively.  Remember, the Green Wave went just 2-10 last season.  While they are improved as well, they should not be 13-point favorites over Southern Miss.  Especially with this now being a big letdown spot after the win over Kansas State, and a sandwich spot with Houston on deck next week.

Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as a road underdog.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Southern Miss is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +3

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They added in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback, and this already looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.

I backed Arizona in Week 1 as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Arizona came back and lost to Mississippi State at home in Week 2, but then upset #1 Ranked FCS power North Dakota State 31-28 last week.  The Wildcats have been through the gauntlet already with a brutal schedule and have gotten through at 2-1 despite being underdogs in all three games.  Now they are a dog to California and they shouldn't be.

Cal is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.  I have not been impressed with them at all as they had a narrow win 20-14 over UNLV and beat Cal Davis 34-13 for their lone victories.  They did cover in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week, but that's the same Notre Dame team that was upset by Marshall the previous week.  The Fighting Irish are clearly down.

This is a bad spot for Cal now after facing a program the caliber of Notre Dame on the road.  Now they return home where they have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country as fans just don't show up to their games.  Keep in mind Arizona's lone win last season came against Cal and they dominated, outgaining them 331 to 122, or by 209 total yards.  They were -3 in turnovers and still won that game.  Arizona is improved this season, while Cal is worse, so it should lead to another upset victory for the Wildcats.

Cal is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +7.5

There have been few spots I can recall that have been as bad as this one for Appalachian State.  I faded them with success with Troy as double-digit underdogs last week because they were in such a bad spot.  And after they beat Troy on a hail mary in a game they should have lost, this is now an even worse spot.

In Week 1 Appalachian State lost a 63-61 shootout to North Carolina.  They pulled the shocking 17-14 upset at Texas A&M in Week 2.  Texas A&M is clearly down this season, though.  And last week they got that hail mary on the final play of the game on the tip drill that was completely bogus.  They are feeling fat and happy right now, but also fatigued given that all three games went to the wire decided by 4 points or less.

You know who is not fatigued? James Madison.  The Dukes are coming off a bye week after winning each of their first two games in blowout fashion.  They won 44-7 over Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites in the opener, covering by 32.5 points.  They outgained the Blue Raiders by 429 yards.  That win looks even better now after Middle Tennessee went on to cover their next two games by a combined 52.5 points.  The Dukes also beat Norfolk State 63-7 as 41.5-point favorites in Week 2 and covered by 14.5 points.

I think the betting markets are low on James Madison because it's their first season as an FBS school.  But remember, James Madison went 12-2 last season and has made the FCS playoffs eight consecutive seasons, including the championship game three times.  They have been the second-best team in the FCS behind North Dakota State.  Curt Cignetti is in his fourth season here and has continued the winning tradition.

I think the Dukes are already among the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is saying a lot because this is perhaps the most underrated conference in the country.  They will show it this week in what is a great spot for them and a terrible one for Appalachian State.  College Gameday was at Appalachian State last week as well, which only adds to the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 53.0 points per game, 454.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 379 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.4 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 260 rushing yards per game and 7.4 per carry.  They are also completing 67.6% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

No question Duke is improved this season, too, but I question their level of competition to this point.  The Blue Devils are 3-0 against Temple, Northwestern and North Carolina A&T.  Temple is one of the worst teams in FBS, Northwestern may be the worst team in the Big Ten after losing to Southern Illinois last week, and NC A&T is one of the worst teams in FCS.  Duke went 3-9 last year, was outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 99 yards per game.

Kansas has faced the much tougher schedule with road games at WVU and Houston already.  Simply put, oddsmakers and the betting public haven't caught up to how good this Kansas team is, and we'll keep taking advantage. Fans are now excited about this team, and they should have the best home-field advantage they have had in years.  

The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last six games overall and covering the spread by an average of 21 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 63 or higher and losing by 37.0 points per game in this spot.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 34.1 points per game.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kent State +45

Washington and Oklahoma look like two of the best teams in the country.  Well, Kent State only lost by 25 to Washington and by 30 to Oklahoma.  Now they are catching 45 points against another one of the best teams in Georgia.  I think they can cover this number against a Georgia team that won't be that interested in this game.

This is a sandwich spot for Georgia, coming off a win over South Carolina in their SEC opener and having another SEC game on deck against Missouri.  We saw them fail to cover in a similar situation already once this season.  After beating Oregon in their opener, and having their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina, they only beat lowly Samford 33-0 as 53.5-point favorites.

Kent State flexed their muscle with a 63-10 win over Long Island last week.  That was essentially a bye as their starters got to rest in the second half.  That's big because the Golden Flashes won't run out of gas in the second half even if they are getting beat up a little.  They should keep coming and fight for us to cover this inflated number.  I doubt Georgia even scores 45 points in this one.  

Kent State did move the ball on Oklahoma and Washington, averaging 318 yards per game and 4.5 per play against them.  Head coach Sean Lewis is a great offensive mind.  The Golden Flashes averaged 49.8 points per game two seasons ago and 33.0 points per game last year.  While the offense won't be as good, this does appear to be the best defense Lewis has had in his five seasons here.  New defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson has made an impact after spending the past eight seasons at Northern Iowa, including finishing as a Top 15 FCS defense each of the last three years.

Kirby Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Georgia.  Roll with Kent State Saturday.

20* Virginia/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 53

The Virginia Cavaliers scored 34.6 points per game last season and averaged 514 yards per game.  They brought back all of their top playmakers at receiver and QB Brennan Armstrong, who threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, while also rushing for nine scores.

The Cavaliers have had no problem moving the football again this season, but they have committed eight turnovers in two games, and they haven't scored as many points as they should have as a result.  They are scoring just 18.3 points per game.  They had 505 total yards against Richmond and 515 total yards against Old Dominion while being held in check by a good Illinois defense.

But the lack of points along with three consecutive UNDERS for Virginia to start the season has provided some value with the OVER this week.  This total should be much higher than 53.  It's only a matter of time before this offense starts turning those yards into points, and this Virginia defense isn't very good after allowing 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last season.

Syracuse has one of the most improved offenses in the country.  They brought in Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae and he is getting the most out of this Syracuse offense.  The Orange are averaging 37.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play despite playing a tough schedule that has included Louisville and Purdue.

Garrett Shrader is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country under Anae's watch.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes for 705 yards with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 202 yards and three scores.  Sean Tucker rushed for 1,496 yards and 12 TD last season and is one of the best backs in the country.

Armstrong should have a field day throwing the football against this Syracuse defense that was just torched for 424 passing yards by Purdue last week.  I also expect Shrader to put up points at will on this Virginia defense, and for Armstrong to keep pace.  It will be perfect conditions inside the Carrier Dome for a track meet Friday night, too.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Virgina) - in a game involving two good offensive teams that average 390 to 440 yards per game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 13-5 in Cavaliers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina/Georgia State OVER 61.5

Coastal Carolina is loaded on offense again this season.  They scored 37.2 points per game in 2020 and followed it up with 40.9 points per game in 2021.  The constant?  That would be QB Grayson McCall, who is back again this season to lead the Chanticleers on offense.

McCall has led this Chanticleers offense to 35.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes for 733 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games, while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.

The problem for the Chanticleers this season is that their defense only returned three starters and lost seven of their top eight tacklers.  There are holes in their defense as they have given up 27.0 points per game.  And that has come against three poor offensive teams in Army, Gardner-Webb and Buffalo.  Both Army and Buffalo like to slow the game down, too, or the numbers would be worse on defense and better for Coastal Carolina on offense to this point.

Georgia State is loaded on offense again this season.  The Panthers returned eight starters from a unit that put up 28.2 points per game last season, including QB Darren Granger.  The Panthers are averaging 27.7 points per game against a brutal schedule of South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte.  That's why they are 0-3.

The Panthers have been gashed defensively, allowing 37.3 points per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They just gave up 42 points and 501 yards to Charlotte last week.  Now on a short week, their defense is probably still tired, which can also be said for Coastal Carolina after a hard-fought battle with Buffalo.  Look for the offenses to have the advantage on this short week.

These teams played in an absolute shootout last year with Georgia State winning 42-40 for 82 combined points.  Coastal Carolina clearly has their defense figured out, also scoring 51 points against the Panthers in 2020 two years ago.  These teams should have no problem topping 62 combined points in the rematch.

The OVER is 6-0 in Coastal Carolina's last six games following a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.  The OVER is 18-5 in Chanticleers last 23 September games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Panthers last five Thursday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.