25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +10

Trent Dilfer is quietly doing a great job at UAB.  The Blazers have faced a brutal schedule and are 2-4 this season despite being underdogs in four of six games.  They beat North Carolina A&T to open the season 35-6, were competitive in a 35-49 loss at Georgia Southern, and lost by 20 at home to Louisiana as 2-point favorites in their first three games to open the season.  Those latter two teams are among the favorites to win the Sun Belt.

UAB is 3-0 ATS since with three straight impressive performances.  The Blazers only lost by 28 at Georgia as 40-point dogs, lost by 12 at Tulane as 21.5-point dogs, and crushed South Florida by 21 as 3.5-point dogs.  The offense is clicking with 346 total yards on Georgia, 434 total yards on Tulane and 608 total yards on South Florida.

UTSA is getting too much respect for what they have done in the past.  The Roadrunners are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS this season as a result.  They lost at Houston, only beat Texas State by 7 as 14-point home favorites, were upset by Army by 8 as 7-point home favorites and were blasted by 31 at Tennessee as 24-point dogs.  Even their lone cover last week wasn't impressive as they beat Temple 49-34 as 14-point favorites.  That's an awful Temple team that previously lost by 22 to Tulsa, by 34 to Miami, by 29 to Rutgers and barely beat lowly Akron by 3.

UAB has passed for at least 250 yards in every game this season.  Well, UTSA just gave up 472 passing yards to Temple last week.  UAB is never going to be out of this game due to a quick-strike offense that is averaging 31.8 points pe game, 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  UTSA is averaging 25.2 points per game, 393 yards per game and 5.4 per play to compare against a softer schedule.  UTSA does have the better defense, but it doesn't warrant them being double-digit favorites.

UTSA has won the conference in consecutive seasons and a big reason why was beating UAB in a pair of close games.  They won 34-31 in 2021 as 3.5-point favorites and 44-38 (OT) in 2022 as 2.5-point favorites.  You know the Blazers want revenge from those two losses, especially last year.  UAB is still 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings not once losing by more than 6 points.  Given the head-to-head history, there's clearly value on the Blazers in this one.

UTSA is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit road win.  The Roadrunners are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a two-game road trip.  UTSA is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet UAB Saturday.

15* Missouri/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR Kentucky -2.5

Both Missouri and Kentucky are 5-1 this season and have been impressive.  However, I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on Kentucky after getting embarrassed by Georgia 51-13 on the road last week.  I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Missouri after they should have had four consecutive covers, but blew it late against LSU last week.

Missouri led LSU 39-35 with less than three minutes left.  They gave up a touchdown and then an interception return TD in the final seconds to lose 49-39.  I think the Tigers will be deflated having their perfect season come to an end in that kind of fashion.  They are also a tired team after playing in that shootout, and now must travel on the road to a tough place to play in Kentucky.

The forecast is going to help Kentucky in this one.  There is a 62% chance of rain with 19 MPH winds projected Saturday.  Kentucky is the better running team and the better team at stopping the run, while Missouri relies more on moving the football through the air to score points.  Missouri only averages 4.3 yards per carry on offense and allows 3.4 per carry on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 per carry on the ground.  Kentucky averages 5.8 yards per carry and allows 3.1 per carry, outgaining opponents by 2.7 per carry.  That's a huge discrepancy.

Missouri has only played one true road game this season and that came at Vanderbilt, which is 0-7 ATS this season and has zero home-field advantage.  This will be their stiffest road test of the season by far.  Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Missouri.  Kentucky is 7-1 SU in its last eight meetings with Missouri overall.  The Wildcats' dominance of the Tigers continues in 2023.  

Plays on home favorites (Kentucky) - after going over the total by 21 or more points in their last three games, a top-level team winning more than 80% of their games when playing against a team with a winning record are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* USC/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2.5

The weather forecast is going to favor Notre Dame quite a bit in this game.  Temps will be in the 40's with a 90% chance of rain and 21 MPH crosswinds at Notre Dame Stadium Saturday night.  That's not ideal for a fair weather team like USC coming over from California and not used to the conditions.  There's been videos of coaches spraying players with water trying to catch footballs to try and acclimate to it.

Notre Dame is the more physical team with the better running game and run defense.  The Fighting Irish average 171 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry on offense and allow 133 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on defense.  USC averages 168 rushing yards per game on offense and allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry on defense.

Notre Dame has played one of the toughest schedules in the entire country, while USC has played one of the easiest.  Notre Dame has faced Ohio State, Duke and Louisville in consecutive weeks.  I think they ran out of gas against Louisville in their upset loss, but knowing they have a bye on deck and having their biggest rivals coming to town will allow them to play with max effort this week.

USC has played San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona.  The Trojans have struggled the last three weeks beating Arizona State by 14 as 34.5-point favorites, Colorado by 7 as 22.5-point favorites and Arizona by 2 in OT as 21.5-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by a combined 55.5 points the last three weeks.  I question how much they have left in the tank after needing OT to beat Arizona.

USC was outgained by Colorado and gave up 564 total yards to the Buffaloes.  USC was outgained by 141 yards by Arizona and gave up 506 total yards to the Wildcats.  After escaping with wins against both those mediocre Pac-12 teams, the Trojans' luck runs out this week.  They gave up 203 rushing yards to Arizona and 193 rushing yards to Colorado, two teams that had previously struggle to run the football.  They also gave up 198 rushing yards to San Jose State and 209 rushing yards to Stanford.  Notre Dame is going to have a monster game on the ground against this soft USC defense.

I think this is a good 'buy low' spot on Notre Dame after giving the game away last week against Louisville by committing five turnovers.  It was an aberration as the Fighting Irish had only committed two turnovers total in the six games prior.  Sam Hartman was prone to big turnover games from time to time at Wake Forest, and he got his out of the way on the road at Louisville.  Hartman and company will be highly motivated to make amends here at home against USC.

USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games following two consecutive wins as favorites where they failed to cover the spread.  Lincoln Riley is 4-15 ATS in road games after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games as a head coach.  Since 2015, there have been 14 teams at 6-0 or better listed as underdogs to a two-loss team.  11 of the 14 lost outright, including USC last year at Utah.

This is a big step up in class for the Trojans this week and a test I expect them to fail given the strength of schedule discrepancy and the forecast.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +11.5

The LSU Tigers cannot possibly have much left in the tank.  They will be playing for their 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet, especially of late.  Three weeks ago they beat Arkansas 34-31, two weeks ago they lost at Ole Miss 55-49 and last week they needed a last-second comeback to beat Missouri 49-39 on the road only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds in what was a misleading score.

I expect LSU to be flat as a pancake hosting Auburn this week.  Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off a bye week after giving two-time defending national champion Georgia all they could handle two weeks ago, losing 27-20 as 14-point home dogs.  First-year head coach Hugh Freeze is one of the most profitable head coaches to back in the entire country.  Teams benefit the most from bye weeks with first-year head coaches due to the new schemes, and Auburn will have a tremendous game plan for LSU this week.

The game plan should be to run the football on this soft, tired LSU defense.  Auburn rushed for 219 yards on Georgia two weeks ago which is no small feat.  They rush for 204 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.  LSU allows 163 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season, which is absolutely horrible for a team that recruits as well as LSU.  Auburn also has an underrated defense that is holding opponents 11.4 points per game below their season averages.  They allow 18.2 points per game, 323 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  LSU allows 32.3 points per game, 446 yards per game and 6.7 per play.

Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last six meetings with LSU, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  LSU hasn't beaten Auburn by more than 4 points in any of those seven meetings.  Given the terrible spot for the home team and the big rest advantage for the road team, there's no way LSU should be laying double-digits here.  Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +7.5

Louisville is in a terrible spot Saturday.  They are coming off the big 33-20 home win over Notre Dame as 6.5-point underdogs last week to remain unbeaten.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals as they will be flat as a pancake this week following one of the biggest wins in program history.

This is the classic Pat Narduzzi spot.  He has a reeling Pitt team that has gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  The Panthers are coming off a bye week, and I trust Narduzzi to come up with the proper game plan to possibly pull off this upset.  It's circle the wagons time, and I'm expecting the biggest effort of the season from Pitt this week with Louisville coming to town.

Unfortunately for Narduzzi, he got burned in the transfer portal trusting Phil Jurkovec to be a capable QB.  He has been hugely disappointing just as he was at Boston College prior.  He is completing just 50.9% of his passes on the season.  The Panthers are going with a new quarterback this week, and he'll have the benefit of two weeks of practice preparing to be the starter.  It cannot possibly go worse than it has with Jurkovec thus far.

This is a night game at Pitt at 6:30 EST Saturday night so the atmosphere will be electric.  The forecast is also going to help the underdog with a 96% chance of rain and 12 MPH winds.  Louisville's passing game would have the advantage in perfect conditions, but this game is likely to be played more on the ground because of the forecast.  That will shorten the game and help the underdog.  Pitt only allows 130 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.

Narduzzi is 16-7 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game as the coach of Pitt.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points ( Pitt) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS overt he last 10 seasons.  

Pat Narduzzi has faced a team 6-0 or better three times in the regular season, and twice the Panthers won outright.  They won 43-42 as 21-point dogs over Clemson when they were 5-4 and Clemson was 9-0 in 2016.  They won 24-14 as 12-point dogs over 10-0 Miami when they were 4-7 in 2017.  And in 2018, the 3-3 Panthers nearly beat 6-0 Notre Dame in a 19-14 loss as 21-point dogs.

Since 1978, 49 teams have gone off favored the week after upsetting Notre Dame.  Only 12 of the 49 covered the spread and nine of those 12 were double-digit favorites.  15 of the 49 lost outright, and 11 of the last 13 have failed to cover the spread since 2011.  I would not be surprised at all so see the Panthers pull off the upset here coming off the bye and with the Cardinals in a massive letdown spot.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -10

Kirk Ferentz has worked wonders getting this Iowa team to 5-1 in spite of an offense that is averaging more punt yards this season than total yards.  His luck ran out against Penn State in a 31-0 road loss for their lone defeat, and it will run out on the road against similar caliber Wisconsin team again this week.

Iowa is only averaging 250 yards pre game and 4.6 yards per play on offense this season.  Backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious taking over for an injured Cade McNamara.  Hill has completed 21-of-56 (37.5%) passes while averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Hawkeyes are without their top target in TE Lachey and have other significant injuries at WR and RB.  Their offensive line is getting no push and is one of the worst offensive lines of the Ferentz era.

Wisconsin has its best offense in years this season with some great balance averaging 205 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry and 210 passing yards per game.  The Badgers are averaging 31.4 points per game against teams that only allow 24.4 points per game.  They have yet another elite defense this season allowing just 18.4 points per game, holding opponents to nearly 13 points per game below their season averages.  They only allow 108 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry as well.

Iowa only averages 121 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry while allowing 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  The Hawkeyes just aren't as strong at the line of scrimmage as they have been in the past, and that's going to be a problem here.  Conditions are going to be terrible with an 85% chance of rain and 28 MPH winds.  This game will be won at the line of scrimmage, and I'll side with Badgers as a result.  I think they can get 20-plus points in this one, and I would be shocked if Iowa's putrid offense got to 10.  Wisconsin held Iowa to 146 total yards last year and 156 total yards in 2021.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington ABC No-Brainer on Washington ML -137

I like both of these teams a ton and think both are national title contenders.  But Washington gets the good fortune of getting this game at home, and the Huskies have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere like nothing Oregon has seen before.

Oregon has played two true road games this season and one was at Stanford, which doesn't count.  The other was a 38-30 win at Texas Tech and a misleading final.  They trailed 27-18 going into the 4th quarter.  They also got a 45-yard INT return TD with 35 seconds left as Texas Tech was trying to get in range for the game-winning field goal.  The Ducks were +4 in turnovers in that game as well.  That's a Texas Tech team that has been far from impressive with losses to Wyoming and West Virginia this season.

Washington could not have been more impressive in its three home games this season.  The Huskies won 56-19 as 14.5-point favorites against Boise State, 43-10 as 34-point favorites against Tulsa and 59-32 as 20-point favorites against California.  They also won 41-7 at Michigan State and 31-24 at Arizona while outgaining the Wildcats by 132 yards.  That's a pesky Arizona team that also took USC to OT last week.

Oregon has faced a much softer schedule than Washington, and that strength of schedule discrepancy matters a lot.  Oregon wants to run the football, and Washington is great at stopping the run, allowing 122 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Bo Nix is going to have to try and win this game with his arm, and he has huge home/road splits in his career.  

I'll gladly side with Michael Penix Jr. over Nix in this one.  Penix is the Heisman Trophy favorite right now leading a Washington offense that averages 46.0 points per game, 570 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play.  He is completing 74.7% of his passes for 1,999 yards with a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.  He led the Huskies to a 37-34 upset win at Oregon last year while throwing for 408 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this Ducks defense.

Oregon is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better.  Plays on home teams (Washington) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in three consecutive games, in a game between two teams with eight or more defensive starters back are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1992.  

Plays on home favorites on the money line (Washington) - following a win in a game involving two top-level teams that win greater than 80% of their games on the season are 53-6 (89.8%, +41.7 Units) over the last five seasons.  

In the last 19 meetings between Oregon and Washington, the favorite is 16-3 SU & 16-3 ATS.  The favorite is also 18-4 SU & 18-4 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Ducks are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  They were 6-point dogs on average and lost by an average of 24.8 points per game in these five games.  Bet Washington on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Troy -4.5

Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS and should have covered in all three games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Eagles 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites last week and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.

This Troy offense remains elite, and this Troy defense is getting back to playing like it did a year ago.  The Trojans have been real stout against the run, which is the key matchup here against Army's triple-option.  Troy only allows 88 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry, while Army averages 201 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  

That's actually pretty disappointing for Army considering their opponents average giving up 5.0 per carry, so they are not running it with nearly as much success as they have in year's past.  A big reason is because they are trying to pass the ball more this season, and while they have had more success it hasn't shown up in the win-loss column.  

Army is just 2-3 this season beating Delaware State and a UTSA team that was playing with a backup QB.  They lost 17-13 to LA-Monroe, which looks real bad after LA-Monroe lost 55-7 to South Alabama last week, a team of Troy's caliber.  They lost 29-16 at Syracuse which was just blasted 40-7 by North Carolina.  And last week they lost 27-24 at home to Boston College which was blasted 56-28 by Louisville.  They also lost in the final seconds giving up a TD to BC, and I could see a hangover effect from that defeat.

Troy is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Bowling Green +4.5

Buffalo is one of the worst teams in college football and could easily be 0-6.  The Bulls opened 0-4 with a 21-point loss at Wisconsin, an upset loss to Fordham as 22.5-point favorites, a blowout home loss to Liberty by 28 as 3-point dogs and a 7-point loss at Louisiana as 10.5-point dogs.  They were down 21 to Louisiana with five minutes left but tacked on two meaningless touchdowns in a misleading final.

Buffalo then never led until OT against Akron in a 13-10 win only after Akron's starting QB got hurt.  And last week's 37-13 home win over Central Michigan was very misleading.  They were outgained by Central Michigan but were +4 in turnovers, including two defensive touchdowns.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulls now after that misleading 'blowout' win.

Bowling Green is also 2-4 this season but has been much more impressive.  They only lost by 10 at Liberty despite being -4 in turnovers, giving these teams a common opponent.  Buffalo lost by 28 to Liberty and was dominated in the box score, too.  Bowling Green only lost by 25 to Michigan as 41-point dogs.  The Falcons upset Georgia Tech 38-27 as 21-point road dogs two weeks ago before naturally having a letdown in a 27-0 loss at Miami Ohio last week.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

Bowling Green has played a much tougher schedule than Buffalo this season.  That's significant because Bowling Green is only getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play, while Buffalo is getting outgained by 1.8 yards per play this season.  Bowling Green is the better team and should not be underdogs here.

Bowling Green is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 road games when playing against a team with a losing record.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +42.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Penn State after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in five games to start the season.  Penn State needed to punch in late scores against West Virginia and Northwestern when they could have taken knees to cover those two spreads.  And they had no business covering at Illinois in a 30-13 win as 14-point favorites but won the turnover battle 5-0.  A 17-point win being +5 in turnovers is not impressive at all.

Penn State isn't going to care about covering against UMass.  The Nittany Lions have their biggest game of the season on deck at Ohio State and will be looking ahead to that game.  I expect them to pull starters in the second half, and I don't think they'll be covering at any point against UMass in this one.

UMass actually has very good numbers for a team that is 1-6 this season, so it's time to 'buy low' on the Minutemen.  They are only getting outgained by 56 yards per game on the season.  Their offense has been able to move the football with 26.1 points per game, 397 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  I think they can punch in a score or two to cover this inflated number against a Penn State in an awful spot looking ahead to Ohio State.  

The forecast is also going to help us cash this UNDER.  There is a 96% chance of rain with temps in the 40's Saturday at Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are going to have a hard time getting explosive plays in the rain, and they lack explosive plays all season.  They play a methodical style offense focused on the ground game and short passes.  I won't be surprised if they don't even reach 42 points today.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +33.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on Michigan following consecutive blowout road wins at Nebraska 45-7 and at Minnesota 52-10.  The Wolverines have been much less dominant at home, going 0-3-1 ATS in their four home games not winning any of them by more than 28 points against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana off a blowout 44-17 road loss at Maryland.  The Hoosiers had a bye last week coming off that defeat to regroup, and I expect a much better effort from them this week.  Keep in mind Indiana only lost by 7 on a neutral to Louisville and by 20 at home to Ohio State earlier this season.  Both Louisville and Ohio State are unbeaten to this point.

The forecast is going to help us cash the big underdog Hoosiers here.  There is a 90% chance of rain with 20 MPH winds expected in Michigan Saturday.  The Wolverines aren't going to be able to score enough points with that forecast to cover this inflated number.  They may not even score 34 or 35, which is what it's going to take to cover.

Michigan ranks 132nd out of 133 teams in tempo.  They average 31.8 seconds in between snaps.  Shortening the game for us also helps the underdog.  Indiana ranks 108th in pace at 28.4 seconds in between snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which again favors the big underdog.

Michigan hasn't been able to beat Indiana by this kind of margin in any of the last 16 meetings.  In fact, each of the last 16 meetings were decided by 31 points or less, including 15 by 25 points or fewer.  That makes for a 16-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 33.5-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Stanford/Colorado ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +12

The Colorado Buffaloes are running on fumes.  They will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week here with this being a Friday night game.  They have been through the gauntlet of TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, Oregon, USC and Arizona State thus far.  They are coming off a 3-point win over ASU on the road last week that followed up a 7-point loss at USC with both games going to the wire and both needing max effort for 60 minutes.  They won't have anything left in the tank for Stanford tonight.

Meanwhile, Stanford gets a massive scheduling advantage here coming off a bye week following their home loss to Oregon.  Stanford has a first-year head coach, so bye weeks are much more beneficial to teams with first-year head coaches.  The Cardinal needed the bye because they went through the gauntlet as well with Hawaii, USC, Oregon and Arizona on the schedule thus far.  They nearly upset Arizona in a 1-point loss and beat Hawaii handily on the road while getting blown out by the other two teams as expected.

Colorado will remain without its best player in Travis Hunter for this game as they want to give him the extra time to rest especially with a bye on deck.  I don't think this Colorado defense can be trusted to lay this kind of number.  We saw that with Colorado State as they needed a last-second score just to force OT to win as 23-point home favorites a few weeks ago.  That's the same Colorado State team that just got blasted 44-24 by Utah State and outgained by over 300 yards.  Colorado allows 34.2 points per game, 466 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, so Stanford is never going to be out of this game.

Colorado is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 56.5 to 63 points.  The Buffaloes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in two consecutive games.  Plays on road underdogs (Stanford) - off two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers against a team that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This situational rest advantage for the Cardinal is not being factored into this line enough.  Bet Stanford Friday.

20* Fresno State/Utah State MWC ANNIHILATOR on Utah State +6.5

Utah State is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football despite being just 3-3 SU & 3-3 ATS this season.  Preseason expectations were very low on this team, but they have been very impressive, especially of late.

Utah State only lost 24-14 at Iowa as 24-point dogs in the opener and actually outgained the Hawkeyes.  They then beat Idah State 78-28 before losing on the road at Air Force by 18.  They only lost by 7 to James Madison at home in a coin flip game.  They have since gone on the road and won 34-33 at Connecticut, and last week was their most impressive performance yet beating Colorado State 44-24 as 3-point home dogs when all the money came against them.

They racked up 639 total yards on a very good Colorado State defense while holding a high-powered Rams offense to 320 total yards, outgaining them by 319 yards for the game.  Now they get to stay at home and host Fresno State in what is a huge game for them if they want to be Mountain West title contenders.  The Bulldogs are the defending conference champs, so Utah State will give an 'A' effort in this one.

Fresno State got off to a fraudulent 5-0 start against a very easy schedule that included home games against Eastern Washington, Kent State and Nevada.  But the Bulldogs finally met their match last week, losing 19-24 at Wyoming as 5-point favorites.  They now have to play in altitude for a 2nd straight week and are on a short week with this being a Friday game.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Fresno State here is because star QB Mikey Keene was was knocked out of that Wyoming loss late with injuries to both of his legs.  He remains questionable to play this week, and it's a long shot on a short week.  Backup Logan Fife isn't nearly as good.  Keene is a UCF transfer who played great for them last year and has carried over that play to Fresno State, completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio in 2023.  It would be a massive blow if he cannot go, but I love Utah State either way here.

Despite facing the much tougher schedule, Utah State has numbers that match those of Fresno State thus far.  Utah State averages 6.6 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 yards per play on defense outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  Fresno State averages 5.7 per play on offense and allows 4.5 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play as well.  Again, the Bulldogs have faced the much easier schedule.

Utah State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Utah State) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* West Virginia/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on West Virginia -2.5

West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Mountaineers play a physical brand of football that belongs in the Big Ten.  These Big 12 teams aren't prepared for it, and it's working wonders for the Mountaineers thus far.  Running the football and playing defense still wins in college football.

West Virginia is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with its lone loss coming on the road at Penn State in a game they should have covered, but James Franklin decided to punch one more score in instead of taking knees in the opener.  The Mountaineers have since reeled off four straight wins and covers, beating Duquesne 56-17 as 38.5-point favorites, Pitt 17-6 as 2.5-point favorites, Texas Tech 20-13 as 6-point dogs and TCU 24-21 as 13-point road dogs.

I don't trust Dana Holgorsen and Houston.  I gave them a chance last game as 10-point underdogs at Texas Tech because the Red Raiders had a backup QB going.  They jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but it didn't last long as they were blasted 49-28 to fall to 2-3 this season.  They were lucky to beat UTSA in the opener 17-14 due to being +3 in turnovers, or they'd be 1-4.  They also were upset at Rice as 7-point favorites.  Their only legit win came over Sam Houston State, which is 0-5 this season.

This is one of the rare instances we have two common opponents to compare these teams.  Houston lost 36-13 at home to TCU and 49-28 on the road to Texas Tech.  West Virginia beat TCU 24-21 on the road and beat Texas Tech 20-13 at home.  As you can see, West Virginia beat those two teams by a combined 10 points while Houston lost to them by a combined 44 points.

West Virginia has by far the superior defense allowing just 19.0 points per game, 335 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  Houston allows 29.8 points per game, 406 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  West Virginia averages 194 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry despite facing a tough schedule of opposing rush defenses, and Houston allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry despite facing an easy schedule of opposing rush offenses.  Bet West Virginia Thursday.

15* CFB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Sam Houston State/New Mexico State UNDER 42

There are expected to be 20 MPH winds inside Aggie Memorial Stadium Wednesday night in this matchup between Sam Houston State and New Mexico State.  Points are going to be hard to come by because of these winds, plus the fact that both teams like to play at a snail's pace.

New Mexico State ranks 128th out of 133 teams in tempo averaging 30.5 seconds in between plays.  Sam Houston State ranks 101st at 27.9 seconds in between plays, which says a lot about how slow they play when you consider they have trailed in every game this season and are 0-5 on the year.

Sam Houston has the worst offense in the entire country averaging 241.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  But they do have a very good defense that allows 379 yards per game despite facing a very tough schedule of BYU, Air Force, Houston, Liberty and Jacksonville State.  I would argue that this New Mexico State offense is the worst that they will have played all season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Coastal Carolina/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Two high-powered offense go up against two suspect defenses tonight in this annual showdown between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State that usually ends up in a shootout.  It will be more of the same here Tuesday night.

Appalachian State averages 36.4 points per game, 463 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  The Mountaineers have great balance, rushing for 204 yards per game and passing for 259 yards per game.  They have a poor defense, allowing 30.8 points per game and 5.7 yards per play despite facing a soft schedule of opposing offenses that average 22.8 points pe game and 5.0 per play, allowing 8.0 points per game and 0.7 yards per play more.  They like to play fast ranking 41st of 133 teams at 24.7 seconds between plays.

Coastal Carolina averages 30.8 points per game, 425 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Grayson McCall.  He is completing 64.3% of his passes for 1,302 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.8 per attempt.  Coastal allows 397 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense thus far despite facing a weak schedule.

Coastal is coming off a 28-38 loss to Georgia Southern and 66 combined points.  Appalachian State is coming off a 41-40 win over LA-Monroe and 81 combined points.  Note that LA-Monroe only scored 7 points against South Alabama last week, so that just shows how down this Mountaineers defense is this season.

Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State 35-28 last season for 63 combined points.  These teams have combined for at least 57 points in six of their last even meetings.  They have averaged 67.5 combined points in their last four meetings.  

Coastal Carolina is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following two consecutive unders.  Appalachian State is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games coming off a win by 3 points or less.  The Chanticleers are 10-2 OVER in their last 12 road games after playing their last game on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +22

This is a terrible spot for the USC Trojans.  They are coming off the big National TV win over Deion Sanders and Colorado last week and they have Notre Dame on deck next week followed by Utah.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Trojans, and I expect them to be flat as a result.

The Trojans have gotten away with sloppy play the past two weeks.  They only beat Arizona State 42-28 as 34-point favorites and Colorado 48-41 as 22-point favorites.  They failed to cover those two spreads by a combined 35 points, and they are once again getting too much respect here against Arizona as 22-point favorites.

Arizona could easily be 5-0 this season.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS and have been very competitive in every game.  They only lost 31-24 (OT) at Mississippi State as 9-point dogs due to committing five turnovers.  They outgained Mississippi State 431 to 307, or by 124 total yards.  Then last week they gave Washington their stiffest test of the season, losing 31-24 as 19-point home underdogs.  If they can hang with Washington, they can certainly hang with USC.

Arizona starting QB Jayden deLaura is questionable for this one after sitting out last week, but I'm not concerned.  Backup Noah Fifita has actually been better than deLaura, completing 74.5% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also showing some mobility on the ground.  He played very well against stout Washington defense last week, and now he gets to take on a suspect USC defense.

USC allowed 28 points to San Jose State, 28 points to what was a previously dead Arizona State offense and then 41 points to Colorado last week.  This could be the best offense that USC has played all season with only Colorado in Arizona's ballpark.  And we've seen USC's defense struggle to stop Arizona in recent meetings.

In fact, Arizona is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with USC losing by 8 as 14-point dogs, by 7 as 21.5-point dogs and by 4 as 17.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three meetings with USC.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by one score.  Don't be surprised if this one goes down to the wire as well.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* MWC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Fresno State/Wyoming UNDER 45.5

There will be double-digit winds at Wyoming Saturday night that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket.  Of course, both of these defenses are elite, which will also help.  And Wyoming has another terrible offense this season while Fresno State is down a couple notches from previous offenses.

Wyoming has done well to only allow 25.2 points per game, 385 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against a brutal schedule of opposing offenses that includes Texas Tech, Texas and Appalachian State.  The Cowboys are run-heavy again on offense this season averaging 36 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They average 325 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average allowing 396 yards per game and 6.1 per play, so they have been poor on offense.

Fresno State has played a very weak schedule of opposing defenses this season and averages just 5.8 yards per play against teams that allow 6.0 yards per play.  They have faces Purdue, Eastern Washington, Arizona State, Kent State and Nevada.  They are allowing 17.0 points per game, 282 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They have held their last three opponents to a total of 19 points and an average of 6.3 points per game.  And Nevada scored a TD in the final seconds last week or it would be even better.

Wyoming ranks 120th out of 133 teams in pace at 29.3 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Cowboys will dictate tempo here playing at home.  But it's not like Fresno plays fast as they rank 86th at 27.0 seconds in between snaps.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 30, 17, 30 and 20 combined points.  None of those four meetings even sniffed this 45.5-point total, and this one won't, either.  Wyoming is 20-6 UNDER in its last 26 home games after a game where 60 or more total combined points were scored.  Wyoming is 33-13 UNDER in its last 46 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Jeff Tedford is 7-0 UNDER in road games following three consecutive wins by 17 points or more as a head coach.  Craig Bohl is 10-2 UNDER game in October home games as the coach of Wyoming.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -1.5

Colorado State's 50-24 home loss in the opener has them undervalued.  The Rams are in Year 2 of Jay Norvell's system and it was going to take some time, but he's such a great coach he was going to get this program turned around.  And it turns out Washington State is very good as they are still unbeaten with wins over both Wisconsin and Oregon State as well.

Colorado State went on to take Colorado to OT an was unfortunate not to win that game outright as a 23-point underdog in a 43-35 defeat.  The Rams avoided the letdown the next week and went into Middle Tennessee and pulled off the 31-23 upset as 3.5-point road dogs.  The Rams then handled their business last week in a 41-20 win over Utah Tech.

A big reason for the Rams' resurgence is freshman QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi taking over for Clay Millen at quarterback.  Fowler-Nicolosi is completing 72.5% of his passes for 1,360 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.6 per attempt and only getting sacked four times.  He is running Norvell's system as efficiently as can be expected.

Utah State is in a terrible spot this week.  The Aggies are a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season, while the Rams have already had a bye.  They are coming off three straight difficult games with a 21-39 loss at Air Force, a 38-45 home loss to James Madison and a fortunate 34-33 win at UConn last week after the Huskies missed the potential tying extra point.  They had to travel clear across the country to face UConn last week and all the way back to Utah.  I can't help but think this is a tired team, especially after playing in those consecutive shootouts.

Colorado State has played the tougher schedule thus far and has held up well, averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that average 6.1 yards per play.  Utah State is allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that only average 5.3 yards per play.  Utah State may also be without QB McCae Hillstead, who exited last game with a concussion and is questionable to return this week.  Backup Cooper Legas isn't as good and is more of a running QB than a passing QB and easier to defend.

Norvell is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games following two consecutive games with 40 or more pass attempts as a head coach.  Blake Anderson is 3-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better as a head coach.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Iowa State OVER 52

Iowa State faced three weak offenses in Northern Iowa, Iowa and Ohio to start the season.  They went under the total in all three.  But the Cyclones have taken a big step up in class the past two weeks in opposing offenses, and we saw both games fly over the total.  Now they get another juggernaut offense Saturday in TCU and this total hasn't been adjusted up high enough.  There's clear value on the OVER.

Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 34-27 for 61 combined points two weeks ago.  Last week, Iowa State lost 50-20 to Oklahoma for 70 combined points.  This Cyclones defense has been exposed, but the offense has shown some life since pretty much abandoning the running game and spreading things out.  The Cyclones have been going with more 3-4 WR sets instead of 2 TE sets, and it has opened things up for the offense.

TCU ranks 3rd in the country in pace averaging just 20.9 seconds in between snaps.  That quick pace means more possessions for both teams and more points.  The Horned Frogs are averaging 34.8 points per game, 487 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on a ridiculous 79 plays per game on offense.  They allow 71 plays per game on defense due to playing so fast.

This 52-point total is very low when you look at the recent head-to-head history.  Indeed, the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 76, 62, 71 and 73 combined points, respectively.  It will be more of the same Saturday night when these two Big 12 rivals get together.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Georgia UNDER 49

A quick look at the recent head-to-head history between Kentucky and Georgia and it's easy to see there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 22, 43, 17 and 21 combined points.  This total of 49 is set way too high given the head-to-head history.

Georgia's offense is down this season and Kentucky's offense isn't as good as it was expected to be with Devin Leary at quarterback.  Leary is only completing 57.7% of his passes this season despite facing a soft schedule.  Kentucky has relied on its ground game and just posted 329 yards on the ground against Florida last week.

Kentucky knows they can run the ball on Georgia but won't have much success throwing it considering the Bulldogs only give up 4.7 yards per attempt.  And they know their best chance of being competitive is to limit the possessions and slow the game down to a snail's pace, which is what they do every year against Georgia to stay competitive and it's why they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Kentucky ranks 123rd out of 133 teams in pace this season averaging 29.6 seconds in between plays.  Georgia ranks 96th at 27.6 seconds, so they like to play slow too.

Georgia allowed 219 rushing yards to Auburn last week and gives up 4.0 per carry this season.  That's a far cry from Georgia defenses of the past two years when they won national titles.  And they have played a very soft schedule thus far.  They were held to 24 points by a bad South Carolina defense and needed a late TD to get to 27 against Auburn last week.

Kentucky will be the best defense Georgia has faced yet, and vice versa.  The Wildcats only allow 15.2 points per game, 297 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  The Wildcats have been very good against the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per play.

I haven't even mentioned the weather yet.  There are expected to be 17 MPH winds Saturday at Georgia, so both teams will be looking to keep it on the ground if they weren't already.  Kentucky is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 9-0 UNDER in their last nine games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  

Kentucky is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 road games vs. teams that average 32 or more possessions minutes and 21 or more first downs per game.  Stoops is 10-1 UNDER in road games following a conference home win as the coach of Kentucky.  Kirby Smart is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Georgia.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Georgia SEC No-Brainer on Kentucky +14.5

I faded Georgia in the first two games of the season with success assuming they'd be flat coming off back-to-back national titles.  My biggest regret this college football season is not continuing to fade them.  I won't make that mistake this week now that they are playing the best opponent they have all season.

Georgia is 0-4-1 ATS this season.  The Bulldogs have remained flat and are going through the motions.  Of course, they also lost a ton of talent from last year's national title team.  The offense has taken a big step back and the defense isn't nearly as dominant as it was a year ago.

Georgia trailed South Carolina 14-3 at halftime at home in Week 3 and failed to cover as 26-point favorites in a 10-point win.  The Bulldogs only beat UAB by 28 at home as 40-point favorites the next week, and last week they needed a late TD at Auburn just to escape with a victory in a 27-20 win as 14-point favorites.

Now the Bulldogs have to face Kentucky, who is clearly the 2nd-best team in the SEC East at worst this season.  The Wildcats are 5-0 this season with all five victories coming by 11 points or more.  None was more impressive than last week's 33-14 home win over Florida.  The Wildcats rushed for 329 yards on a good Florida defense, and they are physical enough to match Georgia in this one.

Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Georgia, and this may be one of the best teams in Kentucky history, while the last two editions of Georgia were arguably their two best teams in Georgia history.  Kentucky only lost 16-6 as 22.5-point home dogs last year, 30-13 as 21.5-point road dogs in 2021, 14-3 as 17-point home dogs in 2020 and 21-0 as 24-point road dogs in 2019.

Kentucky has shown it has the defense to hold Georgia in check, which will be the case again this season.  But the Wildcats have their best offense of the Mark Stoops era and can score on this Georgia defense, which allowed 219 rushing yards to Auburn last week.  Georgia hasn't rushed for more than 189 yards in any game this season despite the soft schedule, so Kentucky can contain them on the ground.  Kentucky is averaging 7.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the entire county.

In fact, I think Kentucky wins the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.  The Wildcats average 6.5 yards per carry on offense and give up just 2.5 yards per carry on defense.  Compare that to Georgia, which averages 4.4 yards per carry on offense and allows 4.0 yards per carry on defense, and you'd be surprised to see the team outgaining their opponents by 4.0 yards per carry as a 14.5-point underdog to the team that is only outgaining their opponents by 0.4 yards per carry.  That just shows Georgia being overvalued due to the name on their jerseys after winning consecutive national titles.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kent State/Ohio UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Kent State and Ohio.  There are expected to be 18 MPH winds with a 25% chance of rain and temps in the 50's Saturday afternoon at Peden Stadium.  Of course, Kent State's woeful offense up against Ohio's elite defense is another reason to be on the UNDER in this one.

Ohio is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Bobcats are only scoring 21.0 points per game and average 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have one of the very best defenses in the country, allowing just 10.8 points per game, 237 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play defensively.  On top of that, the Bobcats rank 119th out of 133 teams in pace, averaging 29.2 seconds in between snaps.

Kent State also likes to play slow this season, ranking 80th out of 133 teams at 26.7 seconds in between snaps.  That's notable because Kent State has been trailing in every game other than its 38-10 win over FCS Central Connecticut State.  The Golden Flashes managed just 6 points against UCF, 6 points against Arkansas, 10 points against Fresno and 3 points against Miami Ohio in their four other games.  

It's a terrible Kent State offense averaging 12.6 points per game, 268.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  But this Kent State defense has been better than expected.  They held Arkansas to 28 points and 308 total yards and Miami Ohio to 23 points and 292 total yards.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Wisconsin UNDER 44.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Rutgers and Wisconsin Saturday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 40's with 18 MPH crosswinds at Camp Randall Stadium.  Both teams are going to be looking to keep the ball on the ground in this one, and that's going to keep the clock moving and favor this UNDER bet.

Of course, both teams already are run-heavy.  Rutgers averages 41 rush attempts per game compared to 22 passing, while Wisconsin averages 37 rush attempts per game compared to 32 passing.  Both teams are elite against the run.  Rutgers only allows 99 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry, while Wisconsin allows 117 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

A big reason for Rutgers' resurgence this season is defense as they allow 12.8 points per game, 268 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  Wisconsin only allows 19.8 points per game despite facing a tough schedule of opposing offenses that includes Washington State, Purdue and Georgia Southern.

Rutgers ranks 128th out of 133 teams in pace at 30.6 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Scarlet Knights will try to slow this one down and limit possessions as well.  Wisconsin has been going a little faster than normal this season ranking 50th, but I don't expect that to be the case Saturday given the weather conditions.

Rutgers are 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games, including 7-0 UNDER In its last seven road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  Rutgers is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine road games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Army -3

I love the spot for Army this week and hate the spot for Boston College.  It's a good spot for Army because they are coming off a bye week.  They are very close to being 4-0 this season, blowing a late 10-point lead in the opener to UL-Monroe and blowing a 10-3 halftime lead at Syracuse for their two losses.  I think the Black Knights would be laying more than 3 if they won both of those games, so we are getting them at a discount.

It's a bad spot for Boston College because they are coming off a big come-from-behind victory to beat Virginia 27-24 last week.  That came after losing by 2 to Florida State and giving up 56 points in a 28-point loss at Louisville.  So they have played three straight ACC games, and now they step out of conference this week before returning to conference play next week against Georgia Tech.  This is a natural letdown spot for the Eagles, who are also gassed at this point.  The last thing they want to do is try to stop Army's triple-option, which is no fun for opposing defenses.

Boston College is going to be without second-leading receiver Ryan O'Keefe, who left last game with a neck injury.  He has 23 receptions for 235 yards and a touchdown for the Eagles this season.  They could also be without top RB Kye Robichaux, who has rushed for 206 yards and two touchdowns this season.  He sat out last game and is questionable to play Army Saturday.

I think the fact that Boston College came back against Florida State a few weeks ago and made a game of it is giving them more credit than they deserve.  That was the only game they covered the spread all season as they are 1-4 ATS.  The Eagles lost outright as 8-point home favorites to Northern Illinois and barely beat FCS Holy Cross 31-28 as a 10.5-point favorite.

Boston College is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Jeff Hafley is 0-7 ATS in road games on turf as the coach of Boston College.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Illinois FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +3.5

The forecast is a big reason I'm on Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois Friday.  Temps will be in the 50's with greater than 20 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.  The heavy winds are going to force both teams to keep the ball on the ground, which is going to favor the Cornhuskers.

Illinois could be without star RB Reggie Love III, who sat out their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable.  They lost that game 44-19 at Purdue, which has lost at home to Fresno State and Syracuse, so that loss looks even worse now.

It's a good 'buy low' spot on Nebraska coming off a 45-7 loss to Michigan.  The Wolverines just played keepaway in that game and their stout run defense caused Nebraska problems.  It wasn't as lopsided as the final score as Michigan only outgained Nebraska by 131 yards.  Michigan averaged 5.9 yards per play compared to 6.6 yards per play for Nebraska.

Illinois only beat Toledo by 2 at home and FAU by 6 at home for its two wins this season en route to a 2-3 start.  The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 10.4 points per game.  They have been grossly overvalued after a great season last year, but they lost a ton of talent from that team and aren't close to that team.

Since both teams are going to have to keep the ball on the ground, the matchup favors Nebraska.  The Huskers average 209 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Illinois averages 144 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Nebraska only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry, while Illinois allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.

Nebraska is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after having fewer than 26 possessions minutes and fewer than 13 first downs last game.  Illinois is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Rhule is a perfect 8-0 ATS all-time after failing to cover the spread in three of his last four games as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER 43.5

The forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER 43.5 between Nebraska and Illinois Friday.  Temps will be in the 50's with greater than 20 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.  The heavy winds are going to force both teams to keep the ball on the ground, which is going to keep the clock moving.  Both teams prefer to run the ball anyway.

Nebraska averages just 18.8 points per game this season.  The Huskers average 38 rush attempts compared to 22 pass attempts per game.  Illinois averages 21.6 points per game this season.  The Fighting Illini average 33 rush attempts and 33 pass attempts per game.  Nebraska ranks 114th out of 133 teams in pace, averaging 28.7 seconds in between plays.  They will slow this thing down to a snail's pace.

Last year, Illinois won 26-9 at Nebraska for just 35 combined points.  The Fighting Illini held the Huskers to just 250 total yards and forced four turnovers.  Nebraska held Illinois to 369 total yards and has a great defense this season, allowing just 325.6 yards per game and 4.8 per play.  Illinois could be without star RB Reggie Love III, who sat out their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable.

The UNDER is 19-9 in Bret Bielema's 28 games at Illinois. Matt Rhule is 15-5 UNDER after a game where they forced no turnovers as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* WKU/LA Tech ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +6.5

Western Kentucky is 3-0 at home this season with wins over South Florida, Houston Baptist and Middle Tennessee.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Hilltoppers.  They lost 63-10 at Ohio State and 27-24 at Troy in a misleading final.  They were outgained 288 to 521 by the Trojans, or by 233 total yards.

Louisiana Tech is 3-3 this season including 2-1 at home with their lone loss coming by 3 points to North Texas in overtime.  They won 24-10 on the road at UTEP last week.  They were also competitive in a 28-14 road loss at Nebraska with their only real blowout loss coming on the road at SMU.  I expect them to be in this game for four quarters against an overrated Western Kentucky team.

I love the numbers LA Tech has posted this season on a yards per play basis, which is arguably the most important stat in all of college football.  LA Tech averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows just 5.3 yards per play on defense.  Compare that to Western Kentucky, which averages 5.6 yards per play on offense and allows 6.3 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see why I'm on the home underdog here.

The weakness of the Bulldogs is their run defense, which is allowing 226 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The strength of the Bulldogs is their pass defense, which is allowing just 152 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for them considering Western Kentucky has no running game and relies heavily on its passing attack.  The Hilltoppers only average 97 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry compared to 286 passing yards per game and 6.5 per attempt.

Louisiana Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a road game.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Tech) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent with two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Louisiana Tech Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +20.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued now after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They had no business covering two of those games.  They only led SMU 14-11 as 16-point favorites with with under 10 minutes left but scored two more touchdowns to win 28-11.  They were actually outgained by SMU.  SMU lost 34-17 at TCU last week.

Then last week Oklahoma beat Cincinnati 20-6 as 13-point road favorites.  That was another big misleading final as Cincinnati turned it over twice in the red zone.  They only outgained Cincinnati by 49 yards and gave up 376 yards to a bad Bearcats offense.  I do think their defensive is improved, but their offense isn't as good as the numbers because they padded their stats against Tulsa and Arkansas State, but struggled to score against SMU and Cincinnati.

Not only are the Sooners overvalued, but they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Texas in the Red River Rivalry that will go a long way in determining not only if they win the Big 12, but also if they can contend for a national title.  This is a sandwich spot coming off a big road win at Cincinnati in their Big 12 opener as well.  They probably just think they have to show up to win against Iowa State.

That won't be the case.  Iowa State could easily be 4-0 this season when you look at the box scores of their games, but they are 2-2 and undervalued as a result.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 16.5 points per game, 299 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through three games.  Their defense could be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 4-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Then last week I backed Iowa State -2.5 in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.  I liked what I saw from their offense as they abandoned the running game early, spread their receivers out with less two TE sets, and let Becht go to work.  It worked as Becht had his best game of the season, completing 27 of 38 passes for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception.  It also opened up the running game in the second half for them to salt the game away.  The change of offensive philosophy is a big reason I'm 'buying' on the Cyclones moving forward.  They are great in pass protection as Becht has only been sacked once all season, so they are playing to their strengths.

Nobody has played Oklahoma tougher than Iowa State in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  And even that 14-point loss last year was very misleading.  Iowa State actually outgained Oklahoma 374 to 332 for the game.  They have outgained Oklahoma in four consecutive meetings, and haven't been outgained by more than 72 yards in any of their last seven meetings.  

Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog as the coach of Iowa State, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or more.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State -1

Everyone keeps sleeping on Georgia State.  I backed them heavily as 7-point road dogs at Coastal Carolina last week and they delivered with a 30-17 victory.  I'll back them again here as they should be much more than 1-point favorites against Troy.

Georgia State is 4-0 this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, beating UConn by 21 at home, Charlotte by 16 on the road and Coastal by 30 on the road.  Charlotte only lost by 15 at Florida and Coastal only lost by 14 at UCLA.  So those wins have more credence now than they did before.

Georgia State's offense has tremendous balance averaging 37.0 points per game, 196 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  They have one of the best QB's in the Sun Belt in Darren Grainger, who is completing 70% of his passes for 994 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 9.5 per attempt.  Grainger is a dual-threat who has rushed for 263 yards, 3 TD and 5.6 per carry.

I love the spot for Georgia State, too.  They have two extra days of rest coming into this one after playing last Thursday.  This is a night game at 7:00 EST and fans are getting behind this team knowing they have a real shot of winning the Sun Belt and doing big things this year.  Plus, there will be no letdown facing the defending Sun Belt champs in Troy.  They will be max-motivated and give their best effort.

Troy has been overvalued since winning the Sun Belt last year.  They brought back just 12 starters from that team and lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.  Troy gave up 30 points to Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite in the opener.  Troy gave up 42 points at Kansas State in a 29-point loss.  They are now 0-4 ATS this season and getting way too much respect from the books again this week.

Georgia State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Shawn Elliott is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Georgia State.  Elliott is 12-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Georgia State.  He is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Hawaii +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UNLV after a 3-1 start to the season.  The win over UTEP last week doesn't look very good now as UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country.  The 44-14 win over Bryant in the opener was very misleading as they were actually outgained by 15 yards by Bryant.

These teams have a common opponent in Vanderbilt.  UNLV beat Vanderbilt 40-37 at home and took advantage of four turnovers by the Commodores and getting outgained by 17 yards.  Meanwhile, Hawaii lost 35-28 on the road to Vanderbilt and should have won that game outright.  Hawaii outgained Vanderbilt by 94 yards in that game and held them to just 297 total yards.

This has been a very closely-contested series, so I'm more than happy to take double-digits with the Rainbow Warriors.  Only twice in the last 11 meetings has Hawaii lost by more than 8 points to UNLV.  The Rebels are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three games coming in.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Hawaii) - off two or more consecutive unders who are also outscored by 7 or more points per game on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +14

Wyoming is off to a surprising 3-1 start this season.  But the Cowboys should be 1-3 when you dive into the box scores a little deeper, and they just haven't been that good.  This fraudulent 3-1 record has Wyoming laying more points to New Mexico today than they should be.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 (OT) in the opener despite being down 17-0 and getting outgained by 111 yards.  They only managed 320 yards on offense.  They had a bit of a letdown the next week against Portland State, winning 31-17 as 28-point favorites despite getting outgained by 27 yards and being held to 344 total yards.  They were held to 291 yards in their 31-10 loss to Texas.  And last week was the most misleading of all, beating Appalachian State 22-19 despite being held to 208 total yards and getting outgained by 209 yards.

As you can see, Wyoming has a terrible offense again this season averaging just 297.5 yards per game. That woeful offense makes it very difficult for them to cover these lofty spreads as favorites.  The Cowboys are much better in the underdog role than they are in the favorite role, especially in the big favorite role.

New Mexico has the best offense they have had in years.  They are scoring 29.3 points per game and averaging 384.5 yards per game this season.  They have opened 2-2 with wins over Tennessee Tech and UMass and losses to Texas A&M and New Mexico State, but they were very competitive against NMSU with 401 yards on offense compared to 397 for NMSU.

The Cowboys were flat against Portland State after beating Texas Tech.  I think they'll be flat again today after beating Appalachian State and with MWC defending champ Fresno State on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  New Mexico has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB TOTAL OF THE DAY on New Mexico/Wyoming UNDER 42.5

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds at Wyoming today that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 42.5 ticket.  These are two teams with bad offenses and good defenses, which is the case every year in this rivalry.  That's why these games tend to go UNDER the total when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Wyoming and New Mexico, but would be 5-0 with a 42.5-point total.  They have combined for 41, 17, 33, 33 and 34 points in their last five meetings, respectively.

Wyoming plays slow ranking 117th out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 29.0 seconds in between plays.  New Mexico ranks 111th at 28.7 seconds in between offensive snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which also bodes well for the UNDER in limiting possessions.

Wyoming is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games following a win.  New Mexico is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games after going over the total in its previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Texas Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +17

Texas is overvalued after a 4-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3.  We saw Texas overvalued in the opener against Rice in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  We backed Rice and then Wyoming +30 off the Alabama win.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.

Admittedly, I was wrong last week in backing Baylor against Texas.  But that 38-6 final was very misleading.  Baylor actually threw for 305 yards on Texas and should have scored more than 6 points.  That misleading final is providing us line value on Kansas this week.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Texas this week is because they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Oklahoma.  That Red River Rivalry will likely determine which team is the favorite to win not only the Big 12, but to also compete for a national title.  The Longhorns could easily be caught overlooking Kansas and looking ahead to Oklahoma, especially after burying Kansas on the road last year.

But that was a rare easy win for Texas in this series.  Kansas pulled the 57-56 upset win as 31-point dogs in 2021, only lost 50-48 as 21-point road dogs in 2019, lost 24-17 as 16-point dogs in 2018, lost 42-27 as 31.5-point dogs in 2017 and won 24-21 as 23.5-point dogs in 2016.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, so we are getting great value here on Kansas +17 given the awful spot for Texas.

Plus, this is the best team Kansas has had this century.  Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  Getting Kansas to a bowl last year was a monumental feat, and now the Jayhawks are hungry for more.  They have opened 4-0 this season with a 31-point win over Missouri State, an 11-point win over Illinois, a 7-point win at Nevada and an 11-point win over BYU.  Leipold brought back 17 starters this season including a healthy QB in Jalon Daniels, who is completing 74.7% of his passes and is a great dual-threat.

Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games the week before Oklahoma. Texas 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a double-digit conference favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* Houston/Texas Tech Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

This is the Donovan Smith revenge game.  He was replaced at QB at Texas Tech by Tyler Shough last year.  Well, Shough just suffered a broken fibula last week in a 20-13 loss at Virginia Tech.  Backup QB Behren Morton was atrocious against WVU, completing just 13-of-37 passes for 158 yards in the loss.  

The Red Raiders cannot be favored by double-digits given their QB situation.  Even Morton was banged up and didn't practice all week, so they could be down to a third-stringer and possibly a wildcat offense.  A lot of their offense has come from Shough on the ground as he has rushed for 149 yards this season.  The Red Raiders are in a world of hurt at QB right now.

Smith is completing 62.3% of his passes for 1,012 years with five touchdowns and three interceptions for Houston this season.  He has also rushed for 104 yards and three scores.  The Cougars showed a lot of resiliency by crushing Sam Houston State 38-7 as 11.5-point favorites last week.  They had 538 total yards against a very good Sam Houston State defense.  Sam Houston played BYU, Air Force and Jacksonville State much tougher than they did Houston.

It's also a revenge game for Houston in general after losing five consecutive meetings in this series all by 17 points or fewer, including a 33-30 loss last year as 4-point road dogs.  Given the situation, I think Texas Tech with a backup QB is ripe to get upset here by their former QB and the Cougars.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Indiana/Maryland Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +14.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana after needing OT to beat Akron as a 16-point home favorite last week.  Akron is better than they get credit for, but it was a clear flat spot for the Hoosiers off a tough 21-14 loss to Louisville the previous week, and with Maryland on deck.  Indiana also lost 23-3 to Ohio State in the opener, so they have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

They have played a much tougher schedule than Maryland, which is overvalued after a 4-0 start to the season.  They beat Towson, Charlotte and Virginia at home before going on the road and topping Michigan State, which is a program in turmoil firing Mel Tucker two weeks ago.  But a closer look at the box scores of the Virginia and Michigan State games shows misleading finals, and those misleading finals have the Terrapins overvalued.

Maryland actually trailed Virginia 14-0.  That was a 7-point game going into the 4th quarter, yet they won by 28.  They only outgained Virginia by 107 yards, and that's a terrible Virginia team.  Last week's 31-9 win at Michigan State was a 12-point game until the Terrapins added 10 points in the 4th quarter.  Michigan State actually outgained Maryland by 14 yards as well, but committed five turnovers, which was the difference.

Indiana is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Maryland.  The three losses came by 3, 3 and 5 points.  So they haven't even come close to losing by this kind of margin to Maryland in any of the last eight meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.

We see it every year with Maryland.  Take advantage of a soft non-conference schedule early then get buried in conference play and struggle to make a bowl game.  The Terrapins also have Ohio State on deck neck week, so they could be looking ahead to that potential battle of unbeatens.

Maryland is 32-58 ATS in its last 90 games following a conference win, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following a conference win by 21 points or more.  Mike Locksley is 11-21 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Maryland.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +18

Michigan has been way overvalued this season after making the four-team playoff.  They are 0-3-1 ATS despite playing a very weak schedule with four straight home games against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.  They were favored by 35.5 or more points in three of those four games and haven't even scored 35 points once.

A big reason Michigan isn't putting up big points this season is because they are the second-slowest team in the entire country.  They rank 132nd out of 133 teams in seconds in between plays at 32.3 seconds.  Now they face a Nebraska team that ranks 116th at 29.1 seconds in between offensive snaps.  That means there will be fewer possessions in this game, thus it really favors the underdog.

Nebraska has been undervalued since blowing the game last in a 13-10 loss at Minnesota.  They also were embarrassed on National TV at Colorado.  Now everyone has given up on this team.  Matt Rhule, the coaching staff and these players have Michigan right where they want them Saturday.  Everyone is overlooking them now, and with four games under their belts, they are starting to get familiar with Rhule's systems.

Nebraska bounced back from the Colorado loss with a dominant 35-11 victory over Northern Illinois as 11.5-point favorites.  They held NIU to just 149 total yards and have an elite defense that is capable of getting more stops than anyone else Michigan has faced thus far.  They also beat LA Tech 28-14 last week.  They were up 28-7 before a rain delay in the 4th quarter and gave up a TD after the delay to make the final score look closer than it was.

Nebraska has gone to Heinrich Haarberg at QB for the past two wins, and he has a lot of Tim Tebow in him.  He has thrown for 278 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, while also leading the team in rushing with 272 yards, two touchdowns and 6.5 per carry.  He gives them their best chance to be successful, and I love the run-heavy approach here against Michigan to shorten the game.

Rhule is 44-19 ATS in conference games as a head coach.  Rhule is 8-0 ATS in home games against a team that wins more than 75% of their games as a head coach.  Rhule is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more yards per attempt as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -2.5

The Akron Zips have quietly been one of the best covering teams in the country dating back to last season.  They have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They could easily have a much better straight up record than they do in those 13 games as they have gone 1-7 SU in one-score games during this stretch despite being a double-digit underdog in almost all of them.

Akron opened the season with a 21-24 loss at Temple as 9.5-point dogs and blew a double-digit lead in that game.  They beat Morgan State but failed to cover due to committing five turnovers.  They lost by 32 at Kentucky in a game they also deserved to cover as 26-point dogs, but gave up a late TD in that one with Kentucky clearly trying to cover the spread.

But no effort was more impressive for Akron this season than last week's 29-27 loss at Indiana in overtime as 16.5-point underdogs.  Akron actually outgained Indiana by nearly 200 yards in that game but committed three turnovers.  They also missed a potential game-winning field goal going into overtime.

QB DJ Irons is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He threw for 194 yards and rushed for 141 more and a pair of touchdowns on a very good Indiana defense last week.  Indiana had held Louisville to 21 points the week prior, and that's a Louisville team that put up 56 on Boston College and 39 on Georgia Tech.

Usually this would be the kind of loss that could beat a team twice.  But not Akron, especially since they have Buffalo coming to town this week.  They want revenge from a 23-22 loss to Buffalo as 11-point road underdogs in the season finale last year.  That's a game Buffalo had to win to make a bowl game, and Akron gave them all they wanted and should have won outright.  Buffalo scored with 1:15 left to steal a 1-point victory.

Now it's Buffalo that is one of the worst teams in college football this season.  Buffalo is now 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight regular season games.  The Bulls have opened 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS this season, and they were extremely fortunate to cover last week.  They lost by 21 at Wisconsin in the opener.  They were upset by Fordham at home as 22.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They were blasted by 28 at home by Liberty in Week 3.  And last week they lost by 7 at Louisiana-Lafayette, but they were down by 21 in the final minutes before getting an touchdown, and onside kick and another touchdown to make the final score look better than it really was.

Buffalo doesn't do anything well, especially defensively.  The Bulls are allowing 44.5 points per game, 512 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play this season.  Compare that to Akron, which allows 27.3 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play and it's easy to see the Zips have the much better defense.  These teams are pretty evenly-matched offensively, but the Zips have played the much tougher schedule of opposing defenses with three road games already at Indiana, Kentucky and Temple.

Joe Moorhead has the Zips pointed in the right direction and this team believes they can challenge for a bowl game.  I'm worried the train is about to come off the rails for Maurice Lingquist in Buffalo as this team has very little to play for after an 0-4 start in which they haven't even been competitive in any game other than their lost to FCS Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite.

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more total combined points were scored are 73-28 (72.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Akron Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse +7

Clemson is out of the national title discussion already in September for the first time in a long time.  They lost 28-7 to Duke in the opener and 31-24 to Florida State last week.  That loss to Florida State is the dream crusher as they are out of not only the ACC title discussion now, but the national title discussion as well.  It's the kind of game that can beat a team twice.

Now they must go on the road and face an underrated Syracuse team that has had their number in recent years.  Syracuse is 4-0 this season with all four wins coming by 13 points or more.  They are averaging 44.3 points per game and allowing just 10.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 33.5 points per game.

Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Clemson.  Four of those six meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  I love Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader, who is very similar to Duke QB Riley Leonard, who threw for 175 yards and rushed for 98 more against Clemson in the opener.  Schrader is completing 66.7% of his passes for 972 yards while averaging 9.0 per attempt, while also leading the team in rushing with 316 yards, 6.9 per carry and 6 TD on the ground.

Plays on home underdogs (Syracuse) - after four consecutive wins are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Orange are being disrespected here and I believe they should actually be favored, especially given the brutal spot for Clemson with their dreams crushed.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Louisville/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville -3

The Louisville Cardinals look like one of the most improved teams in the country under Jeff Brohm.  He is just a winner everywhere he has gone, and now he has his dream job coaching for the team he used to play for.  Louisville is rapidly improving since trailing Georgia Tech 28-13 at halftime in the opener.

The Cardinals stormed back for a 39-34 victory, and that win looks even better now after Georgia Tech gave Ole Miss all they could handle on the road while also upsetting Wake Forest on the road.  They beat Murray State 56-0, jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead on Indiana, which played Ohio State tough, and then crushed Boston College 56-28 last week.  That's a Boston College team that only lost by 2 to Florida State.

The key to Brohm's quick success was luring QB Jack Plummer from Cal to join him.  Plummer is completing 67% of his passes for 1,120 yards with a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 100 yards and another score.  He leads a Louisville offense that is averaging 43.0 points per game, 543 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play.  The defense is giving up just 19.0 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 2.6 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the country.

Compare that to NC State, which is averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.7 yards per play on defense.  The Wolfpack are getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play despite facing a similar strength of schedule to Louisville.  The offense just hasn't been very good since losing QB Leary to Kentucky and replacing him with Brennan Armstrong, and this is one of the worst defenses of the Dave Doeren era.

The 24-14 win at UConn in the opener looks really bad after UConn lost 35-14 to Georgia State, was upset 24-17 by FIU, and got blasted 41-7 by Duke.  NC State then lost 45-24 at home to Notre Dame before topping lowly VMU 45-7.  And last weeks 24-21 win at 8-point favorites at Virginia was very concerning when you look at the box score.  

Virginia actually outgained NC State 384 to 319, or by 65 total yards.  Armstrong went 15-of-30 passing for 180 yards and rushed 15 times in a very physical game against his former team.  I question how much he has left in the tank on this short week against a Louisville team that made easy work against Boston College last week and should be fresh after resting starters in the 4th quarter.

NC State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Doeren is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of NC State.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference game.  Bet Louisville Friday.

15* Temple/Tulsa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa -3

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are in good hands with head coach Kevin Wilson.  He was the head coach at Indiana for six seasons and was Ohio State's offensive coordinator over the past six seasons.  That was a tremendous hire for the program, and he's going to turn this thing around sooner rather than later.

Tulsa has done a good job of getting to 2-2 thus far considering they were underdogs in three of their four games.  After opening with a 42-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Golden Hurricane faced two national title contenders in Washington and Oklahoma, and it went about as expected with blowout losses.  They then upset Northern Illinois 22-14 as 4-point road underdogs last week.

Now they host Temple, which has been extremely disappointing thus far.  They have played a much softer schedule than Tulsa to this point and are also 2-2.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 home win over Akron in the opener as 9.5-point favorites.  They were blasted 36-7 at Rutgers, which is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They blew out Norfolk State 41-9 as 31.5-point home favorites before getting blowing out 41-7 at home by Miami as 23-point dogs.

Tulsa beat Temple 27-16 as 13.5-point road favorites last year and 44-10 as 22-point home favorites in 2021.  Now we are only having to lay 3 points with Tulsa at home, which compared to those previous two spreads in this series is clearly a discount.

Tulsa wants to run the football, and Temple cannot stop the run.  Tulsa averages 170 rushing yards per game on 46 attempts.  They are going to run it, run it again and keep running it.  That's especially the case knowing they are up against a weak Temple run defense that is allowing 200 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The Golden Hurricane only allow 125 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season despite the brutal schedule.  They will win the battle at the line is scrimmage, and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.

15* New Mexico State/Hawaii Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -2.5

Hawaii has played an absolutely brutal schedule thus far and it's why they are 1-3.  Their three losses came to Vanderbilt, Stanford and Oregon and they were competitive in two of them.  Their lone win came 31-20 as 8-point favorites over Albany, one of the better FCS teams in the country.

New Mexico State is 2-2 against an extremely soft schedule.  Their two wins came against Western Illinois and New Mexico.  Western Illinois is one of the worst FCS teams, and New Mexico is one of the worst FBS teams.  They were also upset as 7-point home favorites in a 30-41 loss to UMass, also one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  They were blasted 33-17 at Liberty and outgained by 187 yards in that defeat.

This will be Hawaii's second-easiest game this season and New Mexico State's second-toughest.  This line suggest these teams are pretty much even if you give Hawaii 2.5 points for home-field advantage.  I just don't believe that's the case as the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the superior team, and they'll win this one by a field goal or more at home.

Hawaii is 9-1 SU in its last 10 meetings with New Mexico State, including 5-0 SU at home.  Timmy Chang is 9-2 ATS after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game as the coach of Hawaii.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette -8.5

Buffalo looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  They lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in the opener, 40-37 to Fordham as a 22.5-point favorite and 55-27 to Liberty as a 3-point dog.  Their defense was shredded against Fordham and Liberty through the air despite both of those quarterbacks not being great passers.  They gave up a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio in those two games alone.

Louisiana is going to blow out Buffalo on Saturday.  They beat Northwestern State 38-13 in the opener, lost 31-38 at Old Dominion, and won 41-21 at UAB.  Old Dominion nearly upset Wake Forest last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.  The UAB win was very impressive as they had 515 total yards and won by 20 despite turning it over three times.  

Now the Rajin' Cajuns are back home here and licking their chops at the opportunity to face this putrid Buffalo defense that is allowing 44.3 points per game, 510.7 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  The Bulls are only averaging 4.9 yards per play on offense, so they are getting outgained by 2.4 yards per play on the season.  Louisiana is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.9 yards per play.

Maurice Lingquist clearly isn't the answer at head coach in Buffalo.  Lingquist is 0-6 ATS following a home loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 2-12 ATS following a loss as the coach of Buffalo.  The Bulls are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games.  

Plays against road teams (Buffalo) - a bad team that is outscored by 10 or more points per game, after two straight games where 70 or more combined points per scored are 73-27 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Louisiana Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Baylor +15.5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears this week.  This line would have been a lot smaller coming into the season than it is now.  I think it's an overreaction from what we've seen thus far.

Baylor is 1-2 getting upset by Texas State in the opener.  Turns out Texas State isn't that bad when you look at their results since.  They also lost 20-13 basically at the buzzer to Utah after blowing a 13-6 lead in the final two minutes, giving up a TD, turning it over and another TD.  They slept walked through their 30-7 win over Long Island last week, but it worked as pretty much a bye week because they didn't have to put forth much effort.

Texas is overvalued after a 3-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3 last week.  We saw Texas overvalued last week and took advantage by backing Wyoming +30.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.  The Longhorns are again overvalued this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Baylor.

Baylor's stats actually look pretty good compared to their record.  They are averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.2 yards per play.  They are allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that averaging 5.8 yards per play.  So they are averaging 1.3 yards per play more on offense than their opponents allow, and allowing 0.5 yards per play less on defense than their opponents gain on average.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years with each of the last five meetings being decided by 11 points or fewer.  Texas has only beaten Baylor by more than 11 points once in the last 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the Bears pertaining to this 15.5-point spread.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 37

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a 65% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

They should shut down what looks like the worst Oklahoma State offense of the Mike Gundy era.  Despite facing a soft schedule of Central Arkansas, ASU and South Alabama, Oklahoma State is only scoring 20.3 points per game, averaging 323 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  The Cowboys only managed 7 points and 208 total yards at home against South Alabama last week and tried out three different quarterbacks.  They are lost at the position after Spencer Sanders transferred away.

Iowa State also looks lost offensively this season but has played a tougher schedule.  They are averaging 16.7 points per game, 271.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  The suspensions due to the betting scandal hurt them more on offense than on defense and it has shown.  They are forced to start a backup QB in Becht now and he has struggled in the early going.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams with last year resulting in only 34 combined points.  Iowa State is 12-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  Oklahoma State is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Cowboys are 16-4 UNDER in their last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Campbell is 12-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  But that 1-2 record has them undervalued now and this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game, 262.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through three games.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 3-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Last week, Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Oklahoma State's results to this point have been much more alarming.  None more than last week's 33-7 home loss to South Alabama as a 7-point favorite.  There was nothing fluky about that result as South Alabama outgained Oklahoma State 395 to 208 for the game.  The Cowboys tried three different quarterbacks in that game and none were successful.  They just don't have a QB this year after Spencer Sanders transferred out.  Keep in mind South Alabama lost by 20 at Tulane in their opener and only beat SE Louisiana by 18 at home as a 23-point favorite.

Oklahoma State needed a second-half comeback to beat Arizona State 27-15 two weeks ago.  They only outgained ASU 304 to 277 for the game.  ASU went on to lose 29-0 at home to Fresno State last week and is clearly the worst team in the Pac-12.  They also only beat Southern Utah 24-21 as a 34.5-point home favorite in the opener.  Oklahoma State only beat FCS Central Arkansas 27-13 in the opener as a 26.5-point home favorite as well.  This is the worst Cowboys team we've seen in a long time, and this may very well by Mike Gundy's final season in Stillwater.

I trust Matt Campbell to rally the troops much more than Gundy, who looks to have lost this team after that 26-point home loss to South Alabama.  The Cyclones have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well.  They are more battle-tested and I think they get rewarded with a win and cover at home in the Big 12 opener this weekend.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon -21

The Colorado Buffaloes have already hit their season win total of 3 with their 3-0 start.  They have been the talk of college football and have gotten a lot of hype after beating both TCU and Nebraska to open the season.  It's clear both TCU and Nebraska are down this season, so those wins don't look as good in hindsight.

Last week millions of viewers tuned in for their showdown against Colorado State with College Gameday on campus.  It was a thrilling game and a great comeback for Colorado despite being 23-point favorites.  Trailing by 8 with 98 yards to go on their final possession of regulation, Shedeur Sanders led them down the field and got the touchdown and 2-point conversion to force OT.  Colorado would win in double-OT in a game that finished at roughly 2:00 AM EST.

Now the Buffaloes are a tired team heading into this game with Oregon.  They are also a beat up team losing the top recruit in the country in Travis Hunter to an injury against Colorado State.  Hunter was their best receiver and best cornerback and it's a huge blow to the team not having him moving forward.  I don't think they can hang with Oregon without him.

Oregon looks like a freight train this season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Portland State 81-7 as a 48-point favorite, going on the road and beating Texas Tech 38-30 as a 4.5-point favorite, and avoiding the letdown last week in a 55-10 home win over Hawaii as a 38-point favorite.

Oregon is averaging 58 points per game, 587 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play this season with tremendous balance, throwing for 363 yards per game and rushing for 224 yards per game.  They are going to score at will on this shaky Colorado defense that is allowing 30.3 points per game, 460.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  I don't think Sanders and company can keep up for four quarters.  They get a big time reality check here on the road in a hostile environment in Eugene.

Dan Lanning is 11-3 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oregon.  Lanning is 7-0 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards last game as the coach of the Ducks.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good offensive teams averaging 31 or more points per game.  This is too much to ask of Deion Sanders and his team to go on the road and hang with one of the top teams in the country in the Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/West Virginia Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 55.5

West Virginia is now a power running team under their new offensive coordinator.  They ran 40 times against Penn State, 49 times against Duquesne and 48 times against Pitt.  That game last week against Pitt was ugly as the Mountaineers won 17-6 with just 221 total yards while limiting the Panthers to just 211 total yards.

I think West Virginia will control this game playing at home with its running game while trying to shorten it.  The Mountaineers rank 116th out of 133 teams in the country in seconds between plays at 29.5 seconds.  Slowing it down gives them their best chance to win against Texas Tech.

I think Texas Tech's opener against Wyoming was very misleading which is why this total has been inflated.  It saw 68 combined points in a 33-35 loss in double-OT, but that game was tied 20-20 at the end of regulation for just 40 combined points, so they scored 28 points in OT.  Oregon beat Texas Tech 38-30 and had a defensive TD in the closing seconds that turned a 61-point result into a 68-point result.  Last week Texas Tech flexed defensively in a 41-3 win over Tarleton State in a game that had a 75.5-point total, so it was expected to be a shootout.

This Texas Tech defense has been good holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play despite those opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play in all games, holding them 0.9 yards per play below their season averages.  West Virginia is allowing 20.3 points per game, 307.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season despite facing a difficult schedule against Pitt and Penn State already.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (West Virginia) - a solid team outgaining opponents by 75 or more yards per game after gaining 225 or less total yards last game are 24-4 (85.7%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* BYU/Kansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 56

The forecast is a big reason I'm on the UNDER in this game between BYU and Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely with greater than a 50% chance plus 20 MPH winds consistently and higher gusts.  Points will be hard to come by given the forecast.

BYU's offense looks atrocious this season.  They are averaging just 310.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They beat Sam Houston 14-0 in the opener.  Their misleading 38-31 win over Arkansas last week was so misleading and has provided us some value on the UNDER.  BYU only had 281 total yards in that game but managed to score 38 points.

Kansas looks greatly improved defensively this season.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have put up some points, but they've also faced an easy schedule of opposing defenses in Missouri State, Illinois and Nevada.  This is a big step up in class for their offense against this BYU defense Saturday.

Both teams prefer to run the football and will be forced to given the forecast.  BYU is 46-19 UNDER in its last 65 games vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game.  Kansas is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.  Sitake is 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game as the coach of BYU.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes after their 3-0 start that included a 48-33 home win over Texas A&M.  This is a sleepy spot for them with their ACC opener on deck.  It is also their first road game of the season against Temple.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Temple after a shaky start to the season that included a 3-point win over Akron and a 29-point loss at Rutgers, which was a bit misleading when you look at the box score.  Rutgers also appears to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Temple got right last week with a 41-9 home win over Norfolk State.  Now they Owls will be licking their chops with this opportunity to host a Top 25 opponent from the ACC.

Weather is a big reason I think the Owls can keep this game close.  There is a 72% chance of rain and 23.5 MPH winds forecast as of this writing.  There won't be a lot of points scored in this game as a result, thus making it hard for Miami to get margin.  This game will likely be played on the ground which will shorten the game as well.  Temple has done well rushing for 4.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 yards per carry thus for.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after forcing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +24

The teams that made the four-team playoff last year have been grossly overvalued this year.  That includes both Georgia and Michigan, who are a combined 0-5-1 ATS.  Michigan hasn't even scored enough points to cover their spreads.

Michigan beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites, UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites and Bowling Green 31-6 as 41-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played an extremely soft schedule and haven't managed to top 35 points once.  A big reason is because Michigan ranks 131st out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 31.5 seconds in between plays.  Only Army and Air Force have been slower, with Navy just ahead of them in 130th.

Now Michigan plays another slow team in Rutgers, which ranks 125th in seconds per play.  This is a huge step up in class for the Wolverines as the Scarlet Knights appear to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Northwestern 24-7 as a 5-point favorite, Temple 36-7 as a 7.5-point favorite and VA Tech 35-16 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Michigan will struggle to score against this very good Rutgers defense that is allowing just 10.0 points per game, 273.3 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  This looks like a much-improved Rutgers offense as well at 31.7 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  Will Michigan even score 24 points? They didn't two years ago beating Rutgers 20-13 as a 20.5-point home favorite.

Greg Schiano is 9-2 ATS in September games as the coach of Rutgers.  Schiano is 32-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  Jim Harbaugh is 2-9 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Army +14

Army returned 17 starters this season which is a ton for a service academy.  I think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week they upset UTSA on the road 37-29 as 7-point underdogs.  They have much greater balance this season and showed it off with 254 rushing yards and 188 passing yards in the win.

Army clearly has an elite defense that can keep them in games this season.  They are only allowing 15.3 points per game, 292.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And I think their offense will score enough points to keep them within two touchdowns of Syracuse on Saturday.

I think Syracuse is grossly overvalued right now due to opening not only 3-0 SU, but also 3-0 ATS against a very soft schedule.  They crushed Colgate, one of the worst teams in the FCS, and Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the FBS.  They also won at Purdue, which is a rebuilding Purdue team that also lost at home to Fresno State.  This will be their toughest test of the season.

I think it's a sandwich spot for Syracuse and they won't be that excited to face Army.  They are coming off the big road win at Purdue, and now they have their ACC opener against Clemson on deck.  This just screams letdown for the Orange, who have only a week to get ready for the triple-option, and I think it takes more than a week to truly get prepared for it.  That's why I love backing service academies in this spot.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Army) - a mistake-free team with 42 or fewer penalty yards per game after dominating the times of possession last game with 36 or more TOP minutes are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1992.  Army has an extra day of rest coming into this one too after playing last Friday.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* Boise State/San Diego State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +7

It's a great time to 'buy low' on San Diego State after playing a brutal schedule to open the season.  They have actually done a good job of getting to 2-2 despite the schedule.  They beat one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in Ohio.  Their two losses have come to two of the best teams in the Pac-12 in UCLA (35-10) and Oregon State (26-9).

Now San Diego State is excited to open Mountain West Play and make a statement as a 7-point home underdog to Boise State.  I thought Boise State was was overrated coming into the season due to what they did to finish last season, making the MWC Title game only to lose to Fresno State.  They lost their offensive coordinator who was the biggest reason they made that run after the switch at QB and the switch in the offense.

That Boise State offense hasn't been the same this season.  They managed just 19 points in a 56-19 loss at Washington in the opener.  They managed 16 points in an 18-16 home loss to UCF, a game they should have lost by more when you consider UCF had 530 total yards on them.  They also gave up 568 total yards to Washington, so this defense clearly isn't any good.  They then allowed 18 points to North Dakota last week, and the offense only managed 394 total yards in that game.

San Diego State is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Boise State with two outright upsets as 6-point dogs and 3-point dogs.  They have been a dog in all four home meetings and have held their own, and I think it will be more of the same Friday night.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

20* Georgia State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +7

The Georgia State Panthers have been impressive in their 3-0 start this season.  Their last two games were particularly good as they beat UConn 35-14 as 3-point home favorites and Charlotte 41-25 as 4.5-point road favorites.  Their offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, 463 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They have great balance with 195 rushing yards per game and 268 passing behind senior QB Darren Grainger, who is a full-time starter for a third consecutive season.

They have the offense to keep up with Coastal Carolina, who has a first-year head coach in Tim Beck.  The 27-13 loss to UCLA was not impressive and the 30-16 win over Jacksonville State as 13.5-point home favorites was lackluster as well.  They only outgained Jacksonville State by 6 yards.  Their 66-7 win over awful Duquesne is skewing their numbers.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Georgia State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Coastal Carolina.  The Panthers won 42-40 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2021, 31-21 as 3.5-point road dogs in 2019 and 27-21 as a PK in 2017.  They are catching too many points again here on the road in a game their offense can keep them close for four quarters.

Georgia State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games on turf.  Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after playing a game where 70 or more total points were scored.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games, including 7-0 ATS in this spot under current head coach Shawn Elliott.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/Colorado OVER 59

The Colorado Buffaloes are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Deion Sanders.  They scored 45 points and put up 568 total yards against TCU and put up 36 points and 454 total yards against a good Nebraska defense.  But they allowed 42 points and 541 total yards to TCU and their defense is atrocious, allowing 6.2 yards per play through two games this season, including 6.2 per carry on the ground.

Colorado ranks 22nd in the country in seconds per snap at 22.9 seconds in between plays.  Now they face a Colorado State team that wants to go up-tempo as well ranking 4th at 19.2 seconds per snap.  The Rams look like a dead nuts OVER team after one game, too.

They lost 50-24 to Washington State while allowing 556 total yards to the Cougars.  Head coach Jay Norvell is an air-raid guy who led an explosive offense at Nevada.  Now he's in Year 2 at Colorado State and believes he has found his quarterback in freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi.  He provided a spark against Washington State leading the Rams to 21 fourth quarter points.  He went 13-of-20 for 210 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt.

This is a National TV game on ESPN Saturday night.  You know both offenses are going to want to show out on prime time, and I don't think we'll have a problem getting up and OVER this 60-point total in a game between two fast-paced offenses against two suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Wyoming +30

This is a terrible spot for Texas.  They finally got their validation with a 34-24 upset win at Alabama last week.  The Crimson Tide are clearly down this season and got terrible QB play.  Now the Longhorns have been getting patted on the back all week and complimented.  It's only human nature that they have a letdown.

This is also a sandwich spot for Texas with their Big 12 opener at Baylor on deck.  They won't be giving 100% effort here, and that's going to make it very difficult to cover this massive 30-point spread against a Wyoming team that already upset a team from the Big 12 in Texas Tech.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 as 12-point dogs in the opener.  That's a Texas Tech team that gave Oregon all they could handle last week.  It was only human nature for Wyoming to have a letdown the next week, only beating Portland State 31-17 as 28-point favorites.  It was also a sandwich spot for them with Texas on deck.

Keep in mind Wyoming pulled its starting QB in Andrew Peasley up 21 in that Portland State game.  Peasley is healthy and ready to go against Texas, and he may very be the best QB of the Craig Bohl era.  He threw for 149 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 68 yards and a score against Texas Tech in that opener.  He threw three more touchdown passes against Portland State last week and is a legitimate passer.  Wyoming is expected to get Northern Illinois transfer RB Harrison Waylee to make his season debut this week.  He rushed for 1,929 yards and averaged 5.2 per carry at NIU prior to coming here.

We saw Texas struggle to put away Rice in the opener in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  They even won the turnover battle 3-0 in that game and still couldn't cover.  Wyoming has a legit defense that returned 10 starters from a unit that allowed just 23.9 points per game last season.  In fact, Wyoming has now allowed 23.9 or fewer points in per in six consecutive seasons under Bohl.  They can hang in this game because of their defense and QB Peasley, plus the letdown factor for Texas.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Hawaii/Oregon CFB ANNIHILATOR on Hawaii +38.5

The Oregon Ducks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 81-7 victory over Portland State in the opener.  Portland State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  The Ducks had no business covering against Texas Tech last week, winning 38-30 as 4.5-point favorites only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds when they were leading by 1 with the Red Raiders trying to get down the field for the winning field goal.

Now this is a massive flat spot for the Ducks.  They are coming off that huge road win over Texas Tech last week, and now they have the team that everyone in the country is talking about in the Colorado Buffaloes on deck.  They can't help but look ahead to that game, so I fully expect them to be disinterested in this game against Hawaii.  They will likely not try to pour it on in the 2nd half of this one, which will allow Hawaii to stay within the number.

Hawaii has been grossly undervalued dating back to the second half of last season.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with only one loss by more than 13 points in those 11 games.  They deserved to beat Vanderbilt in the opener in a 28-35 loss as 17-point dogs.  They hung with Stanford in their second game, and they beat a very good FCS team in Albany 31-20 as 8-point favorites last week.  

They outgained Albany 379 to 239 for the game, or by 140 total yards.  They outgained Vanderbilt 391 to 297, or by 94 total yards.  Their defense is vastly improved this season allowing 315 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  And their offense is learning the run and shoot system and has been solid in averaging 27.7 points per game.  QB Brayden Schager is loving the new system, completing 62.5% of his passes for 972 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio through three games.

Plays against any team (Oregon) - with a +0.75 or better turnover margin against a team with a -0.75 or worst turnover margin, after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on Hawaii due to their poor turnover margin, and a good time to sell high on the Ducks due to their fortunate turnover margin up to this point.  This is a dead nuts sandwich spot for the Ducks, who won't cover this massive number as a result.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* Akron/Kentucky CFB ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 49.5

Kentucky has been a dead nuts UNDER team for years under defensive-minded head coach Mark Stoops.  That isn't changing this season.  I have been disappointed in this Kentucky offense that has gotten a lot of hype in the offseason, but this Kentucky defense has saved the day.

Kentucky managed just 357 total yards against Ball State in the opener and scored just 28 points against lowly Eastern Kentucky as a 35.5-point favorite last week.  Now they must face an Akron defense that is much better than they get credit for.

Akron has now allowed 28 or fewer points in six of its last eight games overall with a high of 34 points in those eight games.  They allowed 24 points and 365 total yards to Temple in the opener and 21 points and 231 total yards to Morgan State in their first two games.  But they managed just 279 total yards against Temple and 262 total yards against Morgan State.  The Zips have been held to 28 or fewer points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

Kentucky is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Kentucky) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against a team that committed five or more turnovers last game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +41

The four teams that made the four-team playoff last year have really struggled to start the season in terms of covering spreads.  Michigan is 0-2 ATS, Ohio State is 0-2 ATS, TCU is 0-2 ATS and Georgia is 0-1-1 ATS.  That's a combined 0-7-1 ATS for playoff teams.

To me, this makes sense these teams would struggle to meet the massive expectations set forth by the media, the betting public and thus the oddsmakers.  Michigan literally hasn't scored enough points to cover either of its first two spreads.

The Wolverines beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites and UNLV 35-7 as 38-point favorites.  Now they are even bigger favorites against Bowling Green this week, and it's not warranted.  I love what I've seen from this Bowling Green team thus far to know that they can stay within this huge number as well.

Bowling Green brought back 13 starters this season from a team that went to a bowl game last year, including eight on offense.  They added former Missouri and Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak at quarterback.  He is completing 59.2% of his passes for 390 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

The opener against Liberty really caught my eye.  They only lost that game 34-24 despite five turnovers.  Liberty went on to blast New Mexico State 33-17 last week while outgaining the Aggies 526 to 339 in total yards.  Bowling Green came back and blasted Eastern Illinois 38-15 as 17-point favorites last week, gaining 509 yards in the win without a turnover and outgaining them by 184 total yards.

Michigan is one of the slowest teams in the country offensively.  They rank 128th out of 133 teams in seconds per offensive snap at 31.5 seconds.  Army, Navy and Air Force are three games that are slower than them.  Because they are so slow to snap the ball, the Wolverines get fewer plays in on offense making it very difficult for them to score a lot of points quickly.  Thus, it makes it difficult for them to cover these big spreads, as we've seen to this point.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* Georgia Tech/Ole Miss Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgia Tech +19.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

King has been everything the Yellow Jackets had hoped for and more thus far at quarterback.  He is comlpeting 65.6% of his passes for 603 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.  Cooley is averaging 7.6 yards per rush and Jamal Haynes is averaging 8.2 yards per rush.  Georgia Tech deserved to win the opener with a 39-34 loss to Louisville, blowing a 28-13 lead.  They came back with a 48-13 win over South Carolina State last week.

While Georgia Tech was blowing out its last opponent and resting starters in the 4th quarter, Ole Miss was in a dog fight with Tulane and backup QB Kai Horton after Tulane star QB Michael Pratt was a late scratch.  This game was tied 17-17 in the 4th quarter, and was 27-20 with under two minutes to go.  Ole Miss got a 56-yard FG to go up 10, and then a 26-yard fumble return to win 37-20.

That misleading final is giving us great line value on Georgia Tech this week.  Ole Miss only outgained Tulane 363 to 342, or by 21 total yards.  They were in a dog fight with the Green Wave, and now they have their SEC opener on deck against mighty Alabama.  That makes this not only a letdown spot off the Tulane win, but also a lookahead spot with the Crimson Tide on deck.  

I think Ole Miss has the mentality that they can just show up and win this game after beating Georgia Tech 42-0 last year.  But this is a completely different Yellow Jackets team, and I expect them to be in this game for four quarters.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida SEC ANNIHILATOR on Florida +7

Dating back to 1976, Tennessee has never been favored by more than a single point at Florida.  Tennessee hasn't won at Florida since 2001.  This is simply too many points for the Florida Gators to be getting at home in a series they have absolutely dominated.

This is Year 2 for Billy Napier, who did a great job at Louisiana.  I actually like what I've seen from Florida thus far and felt fortunate to cash my Utah -6 ticket in the opener.  The Gators actually outgained Utah 346 to 270 for the game and easily could have won it in a misleading 24-11 defeat.  The Gators bounced back with a 49-7 win over McNeese State last week.

Tennessee lost a ton of talent on offense last year and Hendon Hooker is irreplaceable at quarterback.  Joe Milton just isn't the same accurate passer that Hooker was, and he needs to be accurate to run this offense.  Last week, Tennessee only beat Austin Peay 30-13 as a 49-point favorite, failing to cover that number by 32 points.  That's an alarming result.

After failing to live up to expectations at Wisconsin, I actually like what I've seen from Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  He is in a much more favorable system here to his skill set.  Mertz is completing 73.8% of his passes for 526 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He handled himself very well against that stout Utah defense in the opener.

I like the fact that Florida has been battle-tested already while Tennessee played two cupcakes in rebuilding Virginia and FCS Austin Peay.  I think we see Milton's deficiencies exploited by this Florida defense this week.  If Tennessee manages to win this game, it's not going to be by more than one score.  This one should go right down to the wire, and we are getting too many points with the home team here.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS overt he last five seasons.  Billy Napier went 5-0 ATS as an underdog in his first season at Florida last year, and four of those games came against ranked teams.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* North Texas/LA Tech CFB ANNIHILATOR on OVER 67.5

North Texas has the worst defense in the country.  They gave up 58 points and 669 total yards to California in the opener and 46 points and 514 total yards to Florida International last week.  How bad were those performances?

Consider Cal score just 10 points and had 273 total yards against Auburn the next week.  Florida International managed 17 points against Louisiana Tech and 14 points against Maine in their two other games.  It's safe to say this North Texas defense is horrendous.

I was close to taking Louisiana Tech instead of the OVER in this game, but I think the OVER is the better bet.  Louisiana Tech is going to name their score, and North Texas does still have a pretty good offense and will be up against a very poor Bulldogs defense.

LA Tech allowed 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game in the first season under head coach Sonny Cumbie, who really only cares about offense.  They returned only four starters on defense from that team and are going to be terrible on D again.  They allowed 38 points to SMU two weeks ago and won 51-21 over Northwestern State last week.

North Texas beat LA Tech 47-27 last year for 74 combined points.  North Texas had 671 total yards while Louisiana Tech has 504 total yards.  The Bulldogs are much better offensively this season with transfer QB Hank Beachmeier plus eight returning starters on offense.

North Texas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after allowing 42 points or more last game.  LA Tech is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Duke CFB ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +18.5

This is a 'buy low' spot on Northwestern and a 'sell high' spot on Duke.  The perception on Northwestern is way down early in the season after head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in the offseason.  If you thought these players were going to lay down, you were mistaken.

The 24-7 loss at Rutgers in the opener doesn't look so bad now after Rutgers blasted Temple 36-7 last week.  Northwestern came back with a dominant 38-7 win over UTEP as a 1-point favorite last week.  That's a quality UTEP team that that won five games last year and brought back 15 starters this year and was expected to be a Top 2 team in Conference USA, just behind Western Kentucky.

Duke is overvalued now after upsetting Clemson in a misleading 28-7 win in the opener.  Clemson had 12 more first downs than Duke and outgained them by 48 yards.  That could prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.  Duke came back and failed to cover in a 42-7 win over Lafayette as 43-point favorites last week.  And now Duke is once again laying too many points this week against Northwestern.

The Wildcats are good enough defensively to keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are allowing 15.5 points per game, 302 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  They brought back eight starters on defense and that is the strength of the team, while the offense cannot possibly be worse than it was a year ago.  Transfer QB Ben Bryant has been solid this season and is a major upgrade at the position.

Plays against home teams (Duke) - a good rushing team averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game against a team that's averaging 100 or fewer rushing yards per game are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Minnesota/UNC Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota +7.5

I was on North Carolina -2.5 in their opener against South Carolina.  They won that game 31-17 and have been overvalued since.  They needed double-OT to beat Appalachian State 40-34 as 18.5-point favorites last week.  I love fading teams coming off overtime games.

Minnesota didn't deserve to beat Nebraska in the opener but squeaked out a 13-10 win in the final minutes.  The Golden Gophers were much sharper last week in a 25-6 win over a pesky Eastern Michigan team as 18.5-point favorites.  They outgained the Eagles 413 to 152, or by 261 total yards.

Once again the Golden Gophers clearly have an elite defense.  They are allowing just 8.0 points per game, 224 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The offense made some strides last week and should take another step forward this week after an ugly performance against Nebraska in the opener.

North Carolina is far from a defensive juggernaut.  They allowed 219 rushing yards to Appalachian State last week and 494 total yards overall.  The Golden Gophers want to run the ball as they average 40 rushing attempts per game and 176 rushing yards per game.  I'll gladly side with the more physical running team from the Big Ten up against the flashy offensive team in North Carolina from the ACC.

Minnesota reminds me a lot of Iowa.  They have a way of playing close games because of their style.  They can play a close game against a bad team just as easily as a close game against a quality team.  In fact, Minnesota has lost by more than 14 points just once in their last 28 games.  They have only four losses by more than one score in those 28 games.

PJ Fleck is 27-11 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Fleck is 9-1 ATS in road games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards as a head coach.  Fleck will come up with the right game plan to slow down Drake Maye and company.  He won't let Maye beat him over the top and the Tar Heels will have to work for everything they get.  I expect the Golden Gophers to control this game on the ground offensively as well.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +9.5

The UMass Minutemen opened the season with a 41-30 upset win at New Mexico State to show how improved they are this season.  Then they got blasted at Auburn and were competitive in a 28-41 loss to Miami Ohio.  Now they get to take a big step down in class here against Eastern Michigan, and I expect them to stay within one score here if they don't pull off the upset.

Eastern Michigan looks brutal this season.  They only beat Howard 33-23 as a 19-point favorite and were actually outgained by 113 yards in that win.  They gave up 398 yards and were held to 285 yards.  Then last week they lost 25-6 to Minnesota as 18.5-point dogs and should have lost by more.  They were outgained by 261 yards by the Golden Gophers and were held to just 152 total yards on offense.

UMass wants revenge from a 7-point loss at Eastern Michigan last year.  I think UMass is improved this season, while Eastern Michigan clearly is taking a step back.  I like EMU in the role of the underdog, but the Eagles are terrible in the roll of the favorite under head coach Chris Creighton.

Eastern Michigan is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a home favorite.  The Eagles are 7-22 ATS in home games after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UMass) - a bad team last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1992.  Bet UMass Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Ohio UNDER 44

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons and are well on their way to that number or better again this season.  They are allowing just 14.5 points per game, 257 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play against Northern Iowa and Iowa thus far.

The suspensions from the betting scandal hurt Iowa State's offense much more than their defense.  The Cyclones are averaging just 21.5 points per game, 270 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play on offense.

Ohio looks like a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  They are averaging 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have been dynamite defensively, allowing 13.3 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  

These teams are a combined 5-0 UNDER this season with Ohio going for 33, 37 and 27 combined points with their three opponents, and Iowa State going for 39 and 33 combined points against their two opponents.  I see no way these teams to 45-plus combined points Saturday, which is what it's going to take for us to lose this UNDER 44 bet.

Iowa State is 11-3 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine non-conference games.  Matt Campbell is 14-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Iowa State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kansas State/Missouri UNDER 48.5

The Kansas State Wildcats won 10 games and the Big 12 Championship last season.  They have picked up right where they left off last season with a 45-0 win over SE Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite and a 42-13 win over Troy as a 14.5-point favorite.

The Wildcats' front seven looks strong again as they have allowed just 38 rushing yards per game and 1.4 per carry through two games. That makes this a bad matchup for Missouri, which clearly relies heavily on the run to move the football.  After failing to cover in a 35-10 win as 27.5-point home favorites over South Dakota, the Tigers barely escaped with a 23-19 win as 21-point home favorites against Middle Tennessee State.  That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that lost 56-7 to Alabama as a 39-point dog in their opener.

Missouri averages 43 rush attempts per game compared to just 22.5 pass attempts per game thus far.  The Tigers struggled to move the football on the ground against lowly Middle Tennessee.  They rushed for just 112 yards on a whopping 46 carries for an average of 2.4 yards per carry.  They won't be able to run against this much stouter K-State defense, either.  K-State held Missouri to 94 rushing yards on 35 carries last year.

For all the offensive struggles Missouri has had through two games, their defense has been stout.  They are allowing 14.5 points per game, 240 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play.  This will be a big step up in class for this Kansas State offense after facing soft SE Missouri State and Troy defenses.  The Wildcats only managed 336 total yards against Missouri last year while holding the Tigers to 222 total yards.  Five turnovers in that game helped it get to 52 combined points, but that won't happen again.

Missouri ranks 92nd in seconds per play at 27.8 seconds while Kansas State is 52nd at 25.0 seconds per play.  I think the Wildcats will take a lot more time in between plays to snap the football in a hostile atmosphere in their first road game of the season.  Missouri will try and slow this game down to give themselves the best chance to win, too.

Missouri is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 Saturday games.  Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Missouri) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams allowing 16 or fewer points per game, in a non-conference game between two Power 5 teams are 34-6 (85%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Army +9

The weather is going to favor Army in this one.  There is a 60% chance of rain with 13 MPH winds forecast for this game at UTSA Friday night.  I'll gladly side with the triple-option team in Army against a UTSA team that relies heavily on throwing to move the football given these conditions.

I also think Army is being undervalued due to its fluky 17-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Monroe in the opener as 8.5-point favorites.  They led that game 13-3 with under six minutes to go but ULM got two touchdowns late to steal the victory.  Of course, Army gave it away with five turnovers, losing three fumbles and throwing a pair of interceptions.

Now ball security has been a focal point the rest of the way, and they only committed one turnover in their 57-0 win over Delaware as 39-point favorites last week.  Due to the nature of that blowout, they were able to rest some starters in the second half and remain fresh for this game that will be played on a short week.  That will be a big advantage for a team that returned 17 starters from last year and is loaded again this year.

UTSA has been massively disappointing thus far.  They may finally start coming back to the pack after several successful seasons in a row.  The Roadrunners were upset 17-14 by Houston in their opener.  That's a Houston team that just lost outright to Rice last week, so that loss looks even worse now.  Then last week UTSA only beat Texas State 20-13 as 14-point home favorites in a lackluster performance.

Based on what I've seen from UTSA thus far, they have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against Army.  UTSA also has a hobbled quarterback in Frank Harris, who was seen in a walking boot this week.  Even if he goes he won't be 100%, and that could help explain how they only managed 20 points last week against a pitiful Texas State defense.

Army wants revenge from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA as 2.5-point underdogs last year.  They gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 2-0.  Army won 28-16 at UTSA in 2020 and 31-13 at UTSA in 2019.  They have pretty much owned this head-to-head series, and I expect them to have a great shot to win this game outright Friday night.

UTSA is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 home games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  UTSA is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Army) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play last game, with an inexperienced QB as a starter in the first month of the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Army Friday.

15* Auburn/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The Auburn Tigers now have the head coach they have been looking for in Hugh Freeze.  He has won everywhere he has gone, including Liberty.  His offenses are some of the best in the country every season, and he is already working his magic at Auburn.

The Tigers racked up 59 points and 497 total yards on UMass in the opener in a game that saw 73 combined points.  Now they face an explosive Cal offense that just put up 58 points and 669 total yards against North Texas in a game that saw 79 combined points.  I don't think we'll have a problem seeing more than 54 combined points in this matchup given what we've seen thus far.

The misconception that Cal is a defensive team is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Cal gave up 27.8 points and 429 yards per game last season.  After having just four starters back on offense last year, the Golden Bears have eight starters back on offense this season including a very good QB in NC State transfer Ben Finley.  They returned their leading rusher and leading receiver, plus four starters and 92 career starts on the offensive line.

The new offensive coordinator is Jake Spatival, who was the Texas State had coach the last four years and ran a wide open, up-tempo system with them that he has brought to California.  That coaching hire is getting overlooked as this appears to be Cal's best offense of the Justin Wilcox era.  He is finally embracing offense because being defensive-minded has not worked for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +31

The Florida State Seminoles may very well be national title contenders this season.  But this is a great spot to fade them.  We'll 'sell high' on them after their 45-24 win over LSU on Sunday which was a much closer game than the final score would indicate.  They only outgained LSU by 34 yards and 0.3 yards per play.  Now the Seminoles are working on a short week and this is a massive letdown spot off the LSU win, plus a sandwich spot with their ACC opener against Boston College on deck.

Southern Miss is good enough to stay within 31 points of Florida State even if this wasn't a letdown spot.  Will Hall is one of my favorite head coaches to back in the country.  He got the Golden Eagles to a bowl game in just his second season last year, and they delivered with a 38-24 win over Rice.  They didn't lose a single game by more than 28 points last year, and three of their six losses came by a single score.

Now the Golden Eagles welcome back 15 starters this season including RB Frank Gore, who rushed for 1,382 yards and nine touchdowns last season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  The Golden Eagles have an upgrade at quarterback in Billy Wiles after not getting much out of the position the last few years.  Wiles completed 21-of-28 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in a 40-14 win over Alcorn State as 24-point favorites in their opener.  The defense is a strength after allowing 23.5 points per game last year, and they held Alcorn State to just 226 total yards in the win.

Southern Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Houston/Rice Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rice +8.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Rice held their own in a 37-10 loss at Texas in the opener as 35.5-point underdogs despite losing the turnover battle 3-0.  They got the cover against one of the best teams in college football, and now they take a big step down in class here against Houston.

Rice will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 34-27 as 17.5-point dogs at Houston last year.  They were only outgained by 3 yards against Houston last year and easily could have won.  I like their chances to cover in the rematch considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.

Houston had a misleading 17-14 win over UTSA in the opener.  They only had 339 total yards while giving up 417 yards to UTSA, but won the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  They were outgained 4.9 yards per play to 5.9 yards per play for UTSA.  They won't be so fortunate against Rice this week.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Owls are 52-30 ATS in their last 82 games as home underdogs.  Holgorsen is 5-15 ATS following an ATS win as the coach of Houston.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +3

Wrong team favored here.  UConn dealt with a ton of injuries last year yet still made a bowl game.  They went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven regular season games before losing to Marshall in the bowl game.  They returned 17 starters from that team and have much better health this season.  Jim Mora is already putting his stamp on this program.

UConn was impressive in a 14-24 loss as 14.5-point dogs to NC State in the opener.  They gained 5.2 yards per play on offense and only allowed 5.1 yards per play on defense.  NC State gained 364 yards on 72 plays, so that performance from the defense was special.

The Georgia State Panthers are going the wrong direction.  They fell to 4-8 last season and gave up 31.2 points per game.  They only return 12 starters this season including five on defense.  They lose their best playmaker in WR Jamari Thrash, who caught 61 balls for 1,122 yards and seven touchdowns last season.  Their next-leading receiver caught just 22 balls for 379 yards and six scores.

Georgia State's opener against FCS Rhode Island was very concerning.  They were lucky to win that game 42-35 as 17.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 96 yards by Rhode Island, giving up 520 yards and 6.9 per play defensively.  UConn is going to score at will on this defense, and I expect the Huskies to get more stops than Georgia State does.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +10.5

New Mexico State made a bowl game in Jerry Kill's first season with the program last year.  They returned 13 starters this season and should be 2-0, but their misleading 41-30 loss to UMass is keeping them flying under the radar.  They outgained UMass 458 to 389 in that game, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  The Aggies responded with a 58-21 win over Western Illinois as 21.5-point favorites to play up to their potential, outgaining them 651 to 251 for the game, or by 400 total yards.

Liberty just lost the most profitable ATS coach in the country in Hugh Freeze.  Now the Flames are in rebuilding mode in the first year under head coach Jamey Chadwell.  The cupboard is bare with just eight returning starters.  Liberty is getting too much respect for covering as 8-point favorites in a 34-24 win over Bowling Green in the opener.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the week as Bowling Green should have won outright, but they committed five turnovers and lost the turnover battle 5-1.  Remember, New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-14 last season.  They outgained them by 115 total yards in that game and will certainly give the Flames a run for their money again this year.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +38

Michigan is overvalued to start the season due to finally making the four-team playoff last year under Jim Harbaugh.  Now they have expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

That was evident in their opener as they only beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites.  They have a ton of players either questionable or out for this game.  That's an ECU team that lost a lot of talent from last year with just 10 returning starters.  They lost their all-everything QB in Holton Ahlers, two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher.

Now Michigan must take on an upstart UNLV team that I would have favored over East Carolina.  UNLV went 5-7 last year and would have made a bowl game if not for some injuries, most notably to starting QB Doug Brumfield.  But Brumfield is among 13 returning starters for the Rebels, and they have an upgrade at head coach in former Missouri HC Barry Odom.

The Rebels were very impressive in their opener, beating Bryant 44-14 as 15.5-point favorites.  Brumfield went 11-of-18 passing and also rushed for 49 yards in the win.  The Rebels rushed for 268 yards as a team and should be able to shorten the game with their rushing attack.  ECU rushed for 103 yards on 26 carries against Michigan.

UNLV is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games following a blowout win by 28 or more points.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State FOX No-Brainer on Iowa State +4

Everyone wants to fade the Iowa State Cyclones early in the season due to the suspensions from the sports betting scandal.  They opened as 20-point favorites against Northern Iowa and were bet down to -7.  All that sharp money and steam lost as Iowa State won 30-9.

I know they were outgained for the game, but keep in mind Northern Iowa ran 27 more plays than they did.  The more telling stat is Iowa State averaged 5.6 yards per play while Northern Iowa only averaged 3.9 yards per play, so the Cyclones outgained them by 1.7 yards per play.

The suspensions didn't hurt Iowa State defensively as they have one of the best defenses in the country.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons.  Northern Iowa QB Theo Day is expected to be one of the best QB's in FCS after having a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last year.  They held him to 16-of-34 passing and intercepted him twice.

Iowa was a 24-point favorite against Utah State last week and only scored 24 points, winning by 10.  And they even had incentive to run it up with coordinator Brian Ferentz having incentives in his contract to average 25 or more points per game.

That's a Utah State defense that is expected to be one of the worst in the country this season after allowing 31.2 points per game last year and bringing back only five starters on that side of the ball, and nine starters total.  It just looks like same old Iowa offense after one game, and I struggle seeing them getting margin because of it.

Utah State outgained Iowa 329 to 284 and 4.6 yards per play to 4.2 yards per play, outgaining them by 0.4 yards per play.  Iowa's rushing attack took a big step back last year, and it doesn't look any better this year after rushing for just 88 yards on 36 carries for an average of 2.4 per carry against a Utah State defense that allowed 194 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry last year.

I think the perception is still down on Iowa State after the offseason they had, and this line should be closer to PK.  There's value with Iowa State at anything +3 or higher as a home underdog.  Only Nebraska has more one-score losses than Iowa State over the past three seasons, making them a huge sleeper due to their poor luck in one-score games.  They are due some positive regression.  Matt Campbell is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.

Each of the last five meetings in this rivalry have been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Iowa State has outgained Iowa by 105 or more yards in three consecutive meetings and by an average of 145 yards per game.  They held Iowa to 150 total yards last year and 173 total yards the year prior.  Their defense will lock down the Hawkeyes again, and I expect them to pull off this upset at home.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/UTSA OVER 65.5

Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne is a name you will want to remember.  He comes over from Incarnate Word, where he led the most explosive offense in the FCS scoring 52 points per game and averaging 581 yards per game.  He has brought that offense and several players with him to Texas State, and his tenure is off to a tremendous start.

Texas State upset Baylor 42-31 last week as 26.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result either.  Both teams even left some points on the board and still combined for 73 points.  I think we see another shootout here this week with UTSA.

Auburn transfer TJ Finley completed 22-of-30 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score in the win over Baylor.  This Texas State defense is a problem again this season with just four returning starters.  Baylor racked up 524 total yards on Texas State and should have scored more than 31 points.

UTSA returns eight starters on offense from a unit that put up 36.8 points per game and 476 yards per game last year.  That includes Frank Harris, the school's all-time leading passer who completed 69.6% of his passes last year for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.

Speaking of leaving points on the board, UTSA lost 14-17 to Houston last week, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  UTSA had 417 total yards but committed three costly turnovers. They had no problem moving the football, but Houston's defense bent and didn't break.  I guarantee you Texas State's defense will break in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Troy/Kansas State FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Troy +17

The Kansas State Wildcats won the Big 12 title last year out of nowhere.  That seems to happen every year where a team from the Big 12 wins it out of nowhere.  But with that title and that 10-win season comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are difficult to live up to.

Kansas State is a ball control team that relies on defense to win games.  They don't blow anyone out, and they aren't about to blow out a similar Troy team with a ball control offense that plays great defense.

Troy went 12-2 last season to win the Sun Belt Conference, which is consistently one of the most underrated conferences in the country and routinely produces upsets of Power 5 teams.  Now the Trojans return 12 starters from that team, including QB Gunnar Watson and leading rusher Kimani Vidal, who rushed for 1,132 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.

This line has been inflated largely due to Kansas State covering their opener 45-0 against SE Missouri State, while Troy failed to cover its opener in a 48-30 win over Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite.  But Troy easily should have covered when you look deeper into the numbers from that game.

Stephen F. Austin somehow scored 30 points despite only 240 total yards.  That's because Troy committed four turnovers and was very sloppy.  Troy had 540 total yards and a great showing offensively.  They outgained Stephen F. Austin 8.4 yards per play to 4.1 yards per play, or by 4.3 yards per play.  It was a much more dominant performance than the final score showed.

Now Troy is licking its chops at the opportunity to face a Power 5 team.  Troy's two losses last year came at Ole Miss by 18 as 21-point dogs and by 4 at Appalachian State on a hail mary as 13-point dogs.  That's how close they were to being 13-1.  They were only outgained by 87 yards in that 18-point loss at Ole Miss to show what they could do against a strong SEC opponent.  They will be ready for this test against Kansas State.

Kansas State has three starters that are either out or questionable in RT Christian Duffie (35 career starts), WR Keagan Johnson (Iowa transfer) and DT Uso Seumalo.  The Wildcats lost six starters on defense from a year ago, plus they lost their two best playmakers in RB Deuce Vaughn (1,558 yards, 9 TD) and WR Malik Knowles (48 receptions, 725 yards, 2 TD).

Troy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet Troy Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Ball State +42.5

This is more of a play against Georgia than it is a play on Ball State.  The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off two consecutive national championships.  They are the kings of college football right now, and with that comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

I think Georgia is just going through the motions in the early going this season.  They opened with a 48-7 win over FCS Tennessee-Martin as a 51-point favorite.  So they didn't even score 51 points, which makes it impossible to cover.  They even had 10 points in the final two minutes of that game including a pick-6 to make the margin 41.

Now Georgia has the SEC opener on deck against South Carolina and could be looking ahead to that game and going through the motions against Ball State.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals just played an SEC team in Kentucky last week in one of the most misleading finals and bad beats of the week.

Ball State lost 44-14 to Kentucky despite only getting outgained by 62 yards.  They held the Wildcats to 357 total yards, which is impressive considering Kentucky was expected to have an improved offense with NC State transfer QB Devin Leary among 10 returning starters on offense.

The reason the score was more lopsided than it should have been is because Kentucky had a fumble return TD and a 99-yard kickoff return TD.  The reason it was a bad beat is because Ball State was down 23 in the final seconds and Kentucky threw the ball on four of their final six plays with Mark Stoops knowing the spread, and they scored with six seconds left to win by 30 as 25-point favorites.  Leary was still in the game with Kentucky's starters on that final drive.  

Georgia won't be having its starters playing in the 4th quarter of this one.  I expect them to call off the dogs early and to be getting ready for that SEC opener against South Carolina next week.  Ball State won't be wide-eyed in this one after facing an SEC team already and going toe-to-toe with them for the most part.  Their QB's went a combined 22-of-30 for 223 yards without a pick against a good Kentucky defense, and freshman Kadin Semonza looked to separate himself, going 15-of-21 for 165 yards and a score.

Kirby Smart is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 42.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia.  He has never covered in this point spread range, and he won't start this weekend.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Wake Forest Early ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +10

Wake Forest lost their star QB in Sam Hartman to Notre Dame in the transfer portal.  They cannot possibly replace him, and they only return 11 starters this season.  The Demon Deacons are finally going to have to go through a bit of a rebuilding year, and we saw that in their opener.

Wake Forest only beat Elon 37-17 as 32-point favorites.  That's a poor showing, and now they are laying double-digits to an improved Vanderbilt team that is off to a 2-0 start this season, beating Hawaii 35-28 and Alabama A&M 47-13.  Vanderbilt returned 15 starters this season and should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC.

Wake Forest has some key injuries in this one as well.  WR Donavon Greene is out, and that's a big blow considering he's the team's leading returning receiver, catching 37 balls for 642 yards and six touchdowns last season.  LB Chase Jones is questionable, and he's the team's leading returning tackler with 74 tackles and 6 TFL last year.

Vanderbilt is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Vanderbilt) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards, with an experienced QB returning against a team with an inexperienced QB are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Illinois/Kansas ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56.5

Kansa is a dead nuts OVER team.  They put up 35.6 points per game last season and allowed 35.5 points per game, averaging 71.1 combined points per game.  They have 10 returning starters on offense so will be explosive again, and their defense won't improve much if at all.

Illinois lost their defensive coordinator from last year, and that's huge considering they had one of the best defenses in the country.  They lost five starters from that defense and three of their top four tacklers.  I do like the prospects of their offense with Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmyer along with each of their top two receivers returning in Isaiah Williams and Pat Bryant.

Illinois played a shootout with Toledo in the opener winning 30-28 on a last-second field goal.  The offense looked good with Altmyer, who completed 18-of-26 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, while also rushing for 69 yards on nine carries to show off his dual-threat ability.  But the defense allowed 28 points and 416 total yards to a MAC opponent in Toledo, a clear sign they have taken a huge step back defensively this season.

Kansas put up 48 points and 521 total yards on Missouri State in the opener.  That was even with backup Jason Bean at quarterback.  While he is one of the better backups in the country, the Jayhawks are expected to get their dynamic QB in Jalon Daniels back from injury for this one.  He completed 66.1% of his passes with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 425 yards and seven scores in nine starts.

The weather looks ripe for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 80's tonight at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.  Kansas is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games with a total set of 56.5 to 63 points.  Lance Leipold is 14-4 OVER after a win by 21 or more points as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* LSU/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 56.5

This will actually be the 3rd meeting in three seasons between Brian Kelly and Mike Norvell.  Florida State played Notre Dame to open the season in 2021 when Kelly was there.  And last year Florida State beat LSU 24-23 to open the season for just 47 combined points.  It's safe to say these two head coaches are familiar with one another and their schemes, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That's amplified when both teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another.

Florida State's defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 20.6 points per game and 322 yards per game last season.  LSU's defense is loaded as well with seven returning starters from a unit that allowed 22.5 points and 355 yards per game last year.  The advantage goes to these two defenses over the offenses.

The offenses were held in check last year with Florida State getting 24 points and gaining 392 total yards and LSU getting 23 points and 352 total yards.  Now with the rule changes the clock won't stop on first downs and I can't see either team topping 400 yards in this one given the familiarity and the fact that both teams want to establish the run.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (LSU) - in a game involing two teams that had winning records last season in non-conference Power 5 games are 66-20 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 56.5 to 63 (LSU) - a good offense from last season that average 400 or more yards per game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning in the first two weeks of the season are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  Kelly is 38-21 UNDER when the total is 56.5 to 63 points in all games as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on South Alabama +6.5

South Alabama went 10-3 last season with two of the losses coming 32-31 at UCLA and 10-6 to Troy, which won the Sun Belt.  They also lost to Western Kentucky in the bowl and weren't motivated after not getting a shot at a conference title or a better bowl game.

Now South Alabama comes back motivated and returns a whopping 18 starters, making them one of the most experienced teams in the country.  They have nine starters back on offense and nine more back on defense, including each of their top six tacklers from last year.  They scored 31.2 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.

I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Tulane early in the season.  They came out of nowhere to win the AAC Title last year and also capped it off with an improbable 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl, coming back from 14 points down in the final minutes.  That was also an unmotivated USC team that had just lost in the Pac-12 Championship and didn't want to be playing Tulane.

The Green Wave have some big losses on both sides of the ball.  They lose RB Tyjae Spears, who rushed for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns last year while averaging 6.9 per carry.  They lose each of their top two receivers.  On defense, they lose each of their top five tacklers and won't be nearly as good on either side of the ball after outgaining opponents by 81 yards per game last season.  I think the Green Wave open 2023 a little flat after a historic season last year that will be hard to match.  Bet South Alabama Saturday.

20* UNC/South Carolina ABC No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are loaded this season.  They have 17 returning starters entering the 5th year of the Mack Brown era.  That includes arguably the best quarterback in the country in Drake Maye, who threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions, while also rushing for 698 yards and seven scores as a freshman last year.

Maye is among nine returning starters on offense.  They have 137 career starts returning along the offensive line and add OL coach Randy Clements, who helped North Texas average 200 rushing yards per game last year.  The only two big losses are their top two receivers, but they add in productive Kent State and Georgia Tech transfers.

The defense has the chance to be one of the most improved in the country with eight starters back from a unit that was a disappointment last year, allowing 30.8 points and 437 yards per game.  They hired former Indiana defensive coordinator Charlton Warren to right the ship.  He has a ton of talent to work with and each of the top five tacklers back from last year.

South Carolina will be one of the least-experienced teams in the country this year.  The Gamecocks return only 10 starters after having 14 and 15 back in Shane Beamer's first two seasons on the job.  Beamer did a good job of getting the most out of those teams, but he has his hands full this year even with QB Spencer Rattler back.

The Gamecocks return six starters on offense and will be larning new schemes under coordinator Dowell Logains, who was the TE coach at Arkansas the last two years.  The Gamecocks lose their leading rusher and have to replace four of their top five receivers.  Chemistry will be an issue on this side of the ball in the early going.

The defense looks even bleaker.  The Gamecocks allowed 28.8 points per game and 405 yards per game last season.  Only four starters return, and they lose seven of their top 11 tacklers.  

The hype on the Gameocks is high after finishing strong last year beating Tennessee and Clemson and also giving Notre Dame a run for its money in the bowl game.  The Tar Heels are flying under radar because they lost their final four games last season after a 9-1 start.  Three of those four losses came by 4 points or fewer.  They have been pissed off all offseason due to that finish and will come out swinging in Week 1.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* Toledo/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are the class of the MAC this season.  They won 9 games last year with four of their five losses coming by one score.  So they only lost one game by this kind of margin, which came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State.

The Rockets now return 16 starters from that squad and have a ton of talent.  They bring back QB Finn, all of their top rushers and each of their top two receivers.  They also return four starters along the offensive line plus get back Tyler Long from injury and he has 19 career starts with the team.

The Toledo defense returns eight starters from a unit that only allowed 25.1 points and 326 yards per game last season.  They have the defense that can keep them in this game with Illinois, plus they'll make enough plays on offense to give the Fighting Illini all they can handle.

I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois after a surprising 2022 campaign in which they went 8-5 after losing 19-10 to Ole Miss in the bowl game.  Illinois is going to have a good defense again, but they do lose three of their top four tacklers and coordinator Ryan Walters left for Purdue.

My biggest problem with Illinois is the offense, which loses QB Tommy DeVito and leading rusher Chase Brown, who rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 TD Last year.  Illinois is not going to be able to score enough points to consistently get margin this season, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us with this offense is asking too much.

Illinois is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Colorado State +11

The Colorado State Rams will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Jay Norvell stepped into a tough situation in his first season and the Rams went 3-9.  They played well defensively allowing 26.9 points per game and 355 yards per game, but Norvell didn't have the players to run his air raid system that he perfected at Nevada prior.  Now he does.

The Rams return 15 starters including seven on offense.  They bring back QB Clay Millen, who completed 72.2% of his passes.  Also back are leading receiver Tory Horton (71 receptions, 1,131 yards, 8 TD) and leading rusher Avery Morrow (834 yards, 4 TD, 4.8/carry).  Eight starters are back on defense and this should be one of the top stop units in the MWC.

I'm pretty down on Washington State this season.  The Cougars only have 12 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last season.  They only beat one team that went to a bowl game last year, and they lost 29-6 to fellow Mountain West foe Fresno State in their bowl game.

QB Cameron Ward is back for the Cougars, but he loses each of his top four receivers from a year ago, and chemistry will be an issue.  The defense only brings back five starters from a unit that gave up 402 yards per game last season.  They will take an even bigger step back on this side of the ball.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Colorado State) - a terrible offensive team from last season that scored 14 or fewer points per game, with an experienced QB returning as a starter in the first month of the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* UTSA/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on UTSA ML -120

Jeff Traylor is doing a tremendous job at UTSA.  They won the conference title each of the last two seasons going 12-2 in 2021 and 11-3 in 2022.  It should be more of the same here in 2023 with 16 returning starters including QB Frank Harris, who it feels like has been here for a decade.

Harris completed 70% of his pases for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.  Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes (845 yards, 6 TD, 6.3/carry) returns, as do four of the fop five receivers.  Eight starters are back on this explosive offense that put up 36.8 points and 476 yards per game last season.

This has the potential to be one of the best defenses of the Traylor era with eight returning starters on defense.  They only had five back last year and still only allowed 25.9 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on defense this season and added in a ton of talent at the junior college level.  They have three first or second-team All-USA players returning in NG Brown, LB Moore and LB Ligon.

UTSA will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 35-37 (3 OT) to Houston last year.  I like their chances considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.  

Holgorsen is 3-12 ATS in Saturday home games as the coach of Houston.  Traylor is 12-4 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of UTSA.  The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Houston opened the favorite but now UTSA is favored, and I whole-heartedly agree with that move.  Bet UTSA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Army -8.5

You'll almost never see a service academy with 17 returning starters because there's usually so much turnover with these programs.  But that's the case for the Army Black Knights this year.  They return 17 starters from a team that was disappointed to finish 6-6 last season with three losses by 1 to Troy, by 6 to Air Force and by 3 to UTSA.  Those were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country last year.

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks are one of the worst Group of 5 teams.  They went 4-8 last season for a second consecutive year under Terry Bowden.  But now Bowden only has 10 returning starters this season and lost a lot to the transfer portal.  That includes QB Chandler Rogers, who left for North Texas after completing 67.5% of his passes last year.

ULM only averaged 22.2 points per game last season and will be even worse off on offense this season.  The Warhawks gave up 34.4 points per game last season and won't be much better on defense with only five starters back.

We saw this matchup last season as Army blasted Louisiana-Monroe 48-24 and gave up 441 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and I see another double-digit win coming for Army as they run all over the Warhawks.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Rice/Texas CFB ANNIHILATOR on Rice +35.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Texas is getting a lot of hype this year as it seems everyone thinks they're back and will win the Big 12.  But I still don't trust Steve Sarkisan even with all the talent he has brought here.  And it's asking a lot for Texas to win by more than five touchdowns to cover this number in their opener on Saturday.  I'll gladly fade the hype.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +35.5

Head coach Don Brown is a UMass legend.  It was a rebuilding year in his first season back with the program last year as the Minutemen went 1-11.  Now he has his players in place and 15 returning starters in his second season back, and we've already seen what this team is capable of.

In Week 0 UMass upset New Mexico State, which made a bowl game last year, 41-30 as 7-point underdogs.  UMass rushed for 197 yards in the win but also look like they found their quarterback in Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh, who completed 10-of-17 passes for 192 yards.  He also led them an the ground with 96 rushing yards on 17 attempts and a score and I love his dual-threat ability.  Brown is a defensive guy and will come up with a good game plan to slow down Auburn.

Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country and has made me a lot of money over time.  But he won't be hitting on all cylinders early in his first season on the job at Auburn in 2023.  The Tigers went 5-7 last year and while they are experienced with 17 returning starters, it's going to take them some time to learn the new systems on offense and defense under new coordinators.

I think this UMass offense can punch in a couple scores and that will be enough to cover this 35.5-point spread with a total of 51.5.  If UMass gets to 14 they will cover, and I think they can do that.  Auburn isn't scoring 49 points on this Don Brown defense, especially not with a running clock and the game being shortened.  The Tigers will call off the dogs in the 2nd half if need be for us to get this cover.

UMass is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. SEC opponents.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin -27.5

The Wisconsin Badgers got their guy.  Luke Fickell proved he's one of the best head coaches in the country by taking Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff becoming the first coach to take a Group of 5 team to the big dance.  Now he steps into a tremendous situation here at Wisconsin.

The Badgers are loaded with talent and experience with 18 returning starters this season.  They add in SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai, who completed 66% of his passes for 7,152 yards and a 72-to-22 TD/INT ratio.  The Badgers have been missing a quarterback for years, but now they have their guy.  He'll thrive in OC Phil Longo's system after Longo produced record-breaking offenses at North Carolina the last four years.

Wisconsin always has an elite defense and that won't change this year.  They only had three starters back on defense last year and still only allowed 20.2 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on D this year and the last two times they had eight back they allowed 16.2 and 17.4 points per game.

The Buffalo Bulls are in a world of hurt this year.  They return just 10 starters for head coach Maurice Linguist.  They were fortunate to get to a bowl last year and won their final two games by a combined 3 points.  We saw Buffalo get a taste of a Big Ten school in the opener last year as they lost 31-10 at Maryland.  It will be an even bigger step up in class here for them against Wisconsin, and I fully expect the Badgers to win by four-plus touchdowns.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Louisville/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech +7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

Jeff Brohm has eventually been successful everywhere he has gone.  He turned around Western Kentucky and Purdue both, but it didn't happen overnight.  That will be the case here as it's going to take some time to build this Louisville program.  The offense won't be clicking in Week 1 learning the new schemes, and the defense loses 33.5 of the 50 sacks they had last year.  Louisville will be lucky to escape Atlanta with a win, let alone a cover.  Bet Georgia Tech Friday.

20* Florida/Utah ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -6

A lot of the talk surrounding this game is with Utah QB Cam Rising.  He likely won't be announced in or out until right before game-time.  He did say he feels 'damn good' on Monday, and it would be an added bonus if he plays.  I'm here to tell you it's not going to matter either way.

Utah has one of the best head coaches in the country in Kyle Whittingham.  He has had all offseason to prepare for Florida, and great coaches have an even bigger advantage with more time to prepare.  This is a loaded Utah team with 16 returning starters including the top offensive and defensive lines in the Pac-12, and the top linebackers and defensive backs in the league.

As you can see, the defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that allowed 21.4 points per game last year.  The offense returns seven starters when you include Rising.  Backup Brandon Rose is questionable as well, possibly leaving it to third-string Bryson Barnes.  He got forced into action last year and played well, completing 64.9% of his passes for 430 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 116 yards and 5.8 per carry.  Whoever is under center will have the benefit of playing behind what Whittingham calls his most talented O-Line ever.

The drop off from Rising to Barnes wouldn't be as big as the drop off from Anthony Richardson to Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  Richardson was the 4th pick in the draft last year and was a huge dual-threat, rushing for 6.3 per carry and 9 TD on ground.  Mertz was highly ranked out of high school but was a major disappointment in his four seasons at Wisconsin.  He had a 38-to-26 TD/INT ratio in his career there and consistently makes poor throws, while also not being a dual-threat.

Second-year head coach Billy Napier has his hands full this season with just 11 returning starters from a team that went 6-7 last year.  The offense is going to take a step back, and the defense is going to be poor again after allowing 28.8 points and 411 yards per game last season.  Only five starters return on defense, and the Gators lose each of their top five tacklers from last year.

Utah is a legit Pac-12 title contender and will be hungry for revenge after blowing the game in Florida last year in a 26-29 defeat.  Now the Utes get to host the Gators inside Rice-Eccles Stadium Thursday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country, and that is amplified when playing a week night game.  

Utah is 26-2 SU at home over the past five seasons with an amazing 25 of those wins coming by 6 points or more, and 24 by 7 points or more.  Bet Utah Thursday.

20* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +11

Florida International was one of the worst teams in college football last season.  They did a good job of getting to 4-8 with only 11 returning starters and a first-year head coach in Mike MacIntyre.  He is the king of turning programs around.

Indeed, MacIntyre went 1-11 in his first year at San Jose State and in his 3rd year got them to 11-2 and ranked inside the Top 25.  They went 4-8 in his first year at Colorado but in Year 4 they made the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Last year MacIntyre took over a Panthers team that had gone 0-8 in conference play the previous season.  They were a dog in all 11 FBS games and a double-digit dog in nine of them but pulled off three upsets, including against this same Louisiana Tech team.

Now the Panthers return 12 starters, move up 50 spots in experience rankings and are in Year 2 under MacIntyre and are familiar with the systems with both coordinators back.  Six of the top eight tacklers are back on what should be one of the most improved defenses in the country.  QB Grayson James returns as a nice dual-threat to lead the offense.

But this is more of a play against Louisiana Tech than it is a play on Florida International.  They wish they had Skip Holtz back at this point.  Sonny Cumbie had a disastrous first season in Ruston as the Bulldogs went 3-9 with their three wins coming against SF Austin, UTEP and Middle Tennessee.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits, and they were upset by FIU and Charlotte to boot.

They have 12 returning starters but will be without their stud RB in Marquise Crosby for the opener.  He rushed for 918 yards and 9 TD last season while averaging 5.0 per carry.  Hank Bachmeier comes in from Boise State at QB, but he was a disaster for the Broncos last season and that team improved greatly once he was benched.

While the LA Tech offense will be respectable under Cumbie's guidance, he just isn't a defensive-minded head coach.  That was evident last year with the Bulldogs allowing 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game.  They gave up 6.1 yards per carry on the ground.  It's hard to expect much improvement considering they return just 4 starters on defense and lose eight of their top 10 tacklers.

This game will likely be decided by single-digits either way, so there's tremendous value in 'buying low' on the Panthers after already upsetting the Bulldogs at home as 6-point dogs last year.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/Jacksonville State OVER 53.5

Both UTEP and Jacksonville State are pretty loaded on offense but suspect on defense.  As a result, I am siding with the OVER in the season opener between two teams that aren't familiar with one another at all.

Jacksonville State makes the move from FCS to FBS this season.  Rich Rodriquez is in his second season here and guided the Gamecocks to a 9-2 record last season.  The offense was electric putting up 36.2 points per game while the defense gave up 390 yards per game.

Rodriquez has nine returning starters on offense including electric QB Zion Webb, who is a dual-threat who rushed for 647 yards and 13 touchdowns last year.  He has each of his top two receivers back, leading rusher Malik Jackson (818 yards, 8 TD, 7.1 YPC) and four starters on the offensive line.  They defense has seven starters back but is undersized for the FBS level, especially up front.

UPTE had eight starters back on an offense that put up 385 yards per game last season.  That includes QB Gavin Gardison, who threw for 2,044 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Leading receiver Tyrin Smith is back after 712 receptions for 1,039 yards and 7 touchdowns last year.  Deion Hankins rushed for 701 yards and averaged 5.0 per carry last season and returns.  Four starters and 122 career starts return along the offensive line.

UTEP gave up 27.0 points per game last season and while seven starters return, the Miners lose five of their top seven tacklers from a year ago.  That includes their two best edge rushers in Cal Wallerstedt (95 tackles, 8 sacks) and Jadrian Taylor (9.5 sacks).  They will miss these two while trying to wrangle in Webb of Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks and their opponents combined for at least 56 points in eight of their 11 games last season.  Dana Dimel is 15-5 OVER in conference road games as the coach of UTEP.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* TCU/Georgia National Championship No-Brainer on OVER 62.5

We saw a couple shootouts in both College Football Playoff Semifinals.  It should be more of the same in the Championship Game with perfect conditions inside the dome at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles Monday night.

TCU racked up 488 yards in a 51-45 win over Michigan in the semifinals.  If they can score 51 points on Michigan I like their chances of being able to score on Georgia to do their part in getting this one OVER the total.  The Hornets Frogs are scoring 41.1 points per game on the season while averaging 475.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.

Georgia racked up 533 total yards in a 42-41 win over Ohio State in the semifinals.  The Bulldogs have one of their best offenses in program history, averaging 39.4 points per game, 495.6 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play this season.  They should shred a TCU defense that is actually a step down in class for them compared to what they faced against Ohio State and what they face on the regular in the SEC.

Both of these defenses are clearly vulnerable.  TCU just allowed 45 points and 528 yards to Michigan after allowing 31 points and 404 yards to Kansas State.  Georgia just allowed 41 points and 467 yards to Ohio State after allowing 30 points and 549 yards to LSU, including 502 passing.  QB's Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett are both in line for monster games in this one.

Sonny Dykes is 33-13 OVER in non-conference games as a head coach.  The OVER is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six non-conference games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last five bowl games.  Only getting a little over a week to prepare for one another favors the offenses over the defenses.  Bet the OVER in the National Championship Game Monday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +2.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions had the quietest 10-2 season you'll ever hear about.  Their only two losses came to Michigan and Ohio State, and they racked up 482 total yards on the Buckeyes and outgained them by 30 yards.  Both teams are in the four-team playoff.

Penn State is a complete team on offense and defense.  They scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this season, while also allowing 17 or fewer points in nine of their 12 games.  Their only opt-outs are CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Parker Washington.  They have the depth and talent to replace these two.

Utah doesn't have the same luxury of trying to replace TE Dalton Kincaid, RB Tavion Thomas and CB Clark Phillips III, who was a first-team All-American by some outlets.  Thomas rushed for 687 yards and seven touchdowns to lead the Utes in rushing.  Bit the big loss is TE Kincaid, who is by far Cam Rising's favorite target, finishing with 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns this season.  He is Rising's security blanket on 3rd downs, and without him their QB will be lost.

Utah's offense was one of the best in school history, but not without Kincaid and Thomas.  Utah's defense wasn't up to its usual standards though, and that was evident when they gave up 42 to UCLA and 42 to USC earlier this season.  They benefited from facing two banged up QB's down the stretch for six of eight quarters against Oregon and USC.  Both those teams run heavy read-option, and not having to worry about the QB run worked out well for the Utes.  They still lost to Oregon, and Rising had a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in three road games this season against Oregon, Florida and UCLA.

The team that stops the run is going to have the upper hand in this game.  I think Penn State is best equipped to do that when you look at the numbers.  Penn State only allows 3.3 yards per carry against teams that averaged 4.3 per carry this season, holding them to 1.0 YPC less than their season averages.  Utah allowed 3.9 YPC against teams that average 4.7 YPC, holding opponents to 0.8 YPC less than their season averages.  I also trust Sean Clifford over Rising to make more plays through the air as he has the better weapons available, plus Utah doesn't get much pressure on opposing QB's without blitzing with one of the worst pressure rates in the country.

Simply put, Penn State is the better team that played the tougher schedule and should be favored in the Rose Bowl.  The Nittany Lions outgained their opponents by 1.5 yards per play on the season while the Utes only outgained opponents by 1.0 yards per play.  The Nittany Lions allow 4.6 YPP on defense while the Utes allow 5.7 YPP.

James Franklin is 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a conference win as the coach of Penn State.  Franklin is 13-1 ATS following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more as the coach of the Nittany Lions.  The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a narrow loss to Ohio State and five blowout wins by 19 points or more, including four by 28 points or more.  Bet Penn State in the Rose Bowl Monday.

20* Tulane/USC Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Tulane +2.5

Tulane will be the more motivated team in the Cotton Bowl Monday against USC.  They flew under the radar all season despite winning the AAC Championship, and nobody is talking about them heading into bowl season, either.  Now they are ready to prove their doubters wrong one last time as underdogs to USC in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Tulane went 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS this season with their only losses coming by 3 to Southern Miss and by 7 to UCF.  They outgained Southern Miss by 198 yards so that loss was a complete fluke.  And they avenged that defeat to UCF in the AAC Championship Game in emphatic fashion.  They won 45-28 while racking up 648 total yards and outgaining the Knights by 238 yards in the rematch.  They also beat Big 12 champ Kansas State 17-10 on the road earlier this season.

While Tulane really wants to be here and it shows as they have had zero opt-outs, USC does not want to be here.  They had their sights set on making the four-team playoff with a win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  Things were going great for the Trojans early with a 17-3 lead, but then QB Caleb Williams suffered a hamstring injury, and the defense got shredded in a 47-24 loss to Utah.  A win would have put them in the four-team playoff.

Williams says he expects to play but even if he does, he won't be looking to test that hamstring too much as a dual-threat, which is what makes him such a great player.  He isn't nearly as great of a passer when he doesn't have the threat of running.  Plus, he won't have his two best offensive linemen as 3rd-team All-American C Brett Neilon and 1st-team All-American G Andrew Vorhees will both be out due to injury.  He also won't have leading WR Jordan Addison (59 receptions, 875 yards, 8 TD) due to an ankle injury as he prepares for the NFL Draft.

Which team does a better job of stopping the run will decide this game.  Tulane RB Tyjae Spears was banged up early in the season, but rushed for over 1,100 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry over his final seven games.  He'll be up against a USC defense that ranks 125th in defensive rushing success rate.  The Trojans allow 149 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the season.  Compare that to Tulane, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry, and it's easy to see which team is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage.

This is also a great matchup for the Tulane defense as their actual strength is defending the pass.  They only allow 189 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt, holding opponents to 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages.  USC averages 326 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and this could legitimately be the best secondary they have faced this season.  Tulane only allows 4.8 yards per play on the season while USC allows 6.3 yards per play.

The Green Wave are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games.  USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games.  They just don't care about winning this game as much as the Green Wave do, and that's going to be the biggest difference in this game.  Take Tulane in the Cotton Bowl Monday.

15* Iowa/Kentucky Music City Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa ML -130

Kentucky beat Iowa 20-17 last season in the Citrus Bowl.  How excited do you think they're going to be to play the Hawkeyes again this season?  The answer is not very.  Meanwhile, Iowa will want revenge and will clearly bet the more motivated team.  I fully expect the Hawkeyes to win this game given the motivational edge and a couple other key factors.

Iowa will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 14.4 points per game, 278.1 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season.  They are only missing a couple players on defense due to opt-outs.  They will be up against a Kentucky offense that won't have their two best players in QB Will Levis and RB Christopher Rodriquez, who will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.  They will also be up against a suspect Kentucky offensive line, which may be the worst unit on the field.

Levis is a first-round pick at QB and Rodriquez is one of the best RB's in the draft.  The downgrade to backup QB Kaiya Sheron is massive.  He started one game this season against South Carolina and the Wildcats were upset 14-24 at home.  He completed just 15-of-27 passes for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss.  And that's a South Carolina defense that was one of the worst in the SEC this season.  Rodriquez rushed for 903 yards and six touchdowns on 5.2 per carry in only eight games this season.

Iowa won't have QB Spencer Petras due to injury, and backup QB Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal.  This could be addition by subtraction as no team in the country got worse QB play than Iowa.  Third-string freshman Joey Labas could actually be an upgrade.  Kentucky doesn't have game film on him, and he actually adds some mobility.  Helping Labas out is the fact that TE Sam Laporta will play in this game despite being one of the top NFL TE prospects.  He led the Hawkeyes in receiving with 53 receptions for 600 yards this season.

Iowa only allows 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season, while Kentucky allows 147 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  This game will be won on the ground, and Iowa has the advantage.  Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson (757 yards, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD) came on strong down the stretch and should lead this Iowa offense to enough points to win this game.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after playing a home game.  Take Iowa on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Kansas State/Alabama Sugar Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -6.5

It looks like Alabama is going to try to make a statement against Kansas State that they belonged part of the four-team playoff.  Their two losses came by a combined 4 points on a last-second FG to Tennessee and a 2-point conversion to LSU.  They have had no opt-outs so far and only some transfers of players that felt like they weren't getting enough playing time.  The bad apples are gone, and the Crimson Tide look fully locked in for the Sugar Bowl.

The early money came on Kansas State with the anticipation that Alabama wouldn't care about this game and a bunch of guys would opt out.  Instead, the Crimson Tide are expected to have five projected first-round picks playing in this game, including Top 10 picks in QB Bryce Young and LB Will Anderson.  Their commitment to this bowl game just shows how much it means to Alabama.

Note that Alabama has been a double-digit favorite in every single game this season.  So getting we are getting them as only 6.5-point favorites here against Kansas State, which is a tremendous value if they are locked in.  The Big 12 is way down this season, which allowed the Wildcats to win it.  That has played out in the bowls as the Big 12 is 1-3 in bowls thus far.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect here against the Crimson Tide, and I expect this line to close -7 or higher so get it in early.

This will be by far Kansas State's toughest test of the season.  This will actually be a step down in class for Alabama compared to what they have faced in the SEC.  It's a bad matchup for the Wildcats because they need to run the football to score.  They average as many rushing yards as they do passing yards this season.  

Well, Alabama allows just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Nick Saban is a genius with extra preparation, and the Crimson Tide will be prepared to stop this Kansas State rushing attack.  Alabama allows just 18.0 points per game on the season.  We saw Kansas State struggle to score against two of the set defenses they faced this season in Iowa State and Tulane.  They managed just 10 points against Tulane and 10 against Iowa State.

Bryce Young leads an Alabama offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  This will be the toughest test of the season for this Kansas State defense.  They have been vulnerable against the best offenses they have faced, allowing 38 points to TCU, 34 to Texas and 34 to Oklahoma.  I can't see Alabama being held to less than 35 in this one, which is going to make it very difficult for Kansas State to hang.  This game will be on a fast turf inside the Superdome in New Orleans which favors the athletes and the speed of Alabama over the blue-collared Kansas State players.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.  Bet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Saturday.

20* South Carolina/Notre Dame Gator Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2

South Carolina is getting way too much respect heading into bowl season for upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the season.  Hendon Hooker got injured for Tennessee and they were coming off the Georgia loss so they were flat.  DJ Uliagalelei has one of his worst games of his career going 8-of-29 for 99 yards in the loss for Clemson.  He was replaced in the ACC Championship Game, and should have been replaced much sooner in the season.

Keep in mind Notre Dame also beat Clemson 35-14, while South Carolina won 31-30 to give these teams a common opponent.  The Fighting Irish do have some opt-outs in TE Michael Mayer and DE Isaiah Foskey, who have declared fro the NFL Draft.  QB Drew Pyne transferred, but he wasn't very good anyway.  Previous starter Tyler Buchner is expected back after missing the last 10 games due to injury, and their 3rd-stringer is very talented if forced into action.

It doesn't matter who is under center because Notre Dame is going to rush for monster numbers on this South Carolina defense.  The Fighting Irish average 183 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, and they'll be up against a Gamecocks defense that allows 195 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  That will be the key matchup that has Notre Dame winning this game.

South Carolina has way more opt-outs and transfers than Notre Dame.  Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield left for Nebraska.  TE's Jaheim Bell (492 scrimmage yards, 5 TD) and Austin Strogner (235 yards, 1 TD) have transferred.  QB Spencer Rattler is transferring as well but will play in the bowl, and I don't trust him to play well.  WR Josh Vann (296 yards, 3 TD) is out with an injury.  Leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd (572 yards, 9 TD) entered the portal.  DL Zacch Pickens (42 tackles, 2.5 sacks), top CB Darius Rush (38 tackles, 2 INT) and top OT Dylan Wonnum won't play as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  DE Gilbert Edmond (9 TFL) entered the portal, and S Devonni Reed (39 tackles) won't play.  They'll be without nine starters as of this writing.

The matchup is great for Notre Dame's offense against South Carolina's poor run defense, and the matchup is also great for Notre Dame's defense against South Carolina's pass-happy offense.  The Gamecocks average 258 passing yards per game, but the Fighting Irish only allow 191 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.  Notre Dame is outgaining opponents by 56 yards per game on the season while South Carolina is getting outgained by 13 yards per game.  The Fighting Irish should be a bigger favorite here.  The Gamecocks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Notre Dame Friday.