Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-11-11 | Dallas Cowboys +4.5 v. NY Jets | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 26 m | Show | |
The Jets have made it to the AFC Championship in each of the last two years but fell short both times, losing to the Colts two years ago and the Steelers last year. Both were impressive runs though as they won two games on the road each year before going down on the road in the championship games. Expectations are high in New York once again but the success will once again be on the arm of quarterback Mark Sanchez. He has overachieved in the playoffs but once again was average during the regular season.
The Cowboys were the biggest disappointment in the NFL last year. A preseason favorite to make it to the Super Bowl, Dallas stumbled out of the gates, going 1-7 which cost the job of head coach Wade Phillips. The Cowboys went 5-3 during the second half and seemed to come back to life after Jason Garrett took over. It did not help that Tony Romo played in only six games last season after breaking his collarbone against the Giants. The Cowboys want to get off to a fast start and a win here will help in doing so. Hurting Sanchez even more this season is that he lost three-quarters of his receiving corps right before training camp as Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Smith have moved on. Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason are formidable replacements but it will take time for the passing game to gel. Cowboys new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan uses multiple defensive fronts, and works to disguise them to make it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to identify what they're going up against. A healthy Romo means the Cowboys offense should flourish once again as they finished second behind the Saints in 2009 in total offense. He has a ton of talent around him, among those Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Felix Jones, who could be ready for a breakout. The Jets defense is one of the best in the NFL and they will have success against the questionable Dallas offensive line but the Cowboys will be able to do enough to have success of their own. The Jets are 8/1 to win the Super Bowl while Dallas is 10/1 to win it making these two teams very even heading into the season. Looking at that, we can find value in this number as New York should not be laying any more than a field goal in this opening game for both. With expectations not as high in Dallas as in years past, there is a lot less pressure and that can sometimes do wonders for teams. Dallas has been a solid bet as underdogs, going 8-2 ATS in their 10 regular season games as dogs the last two years. 9* (477) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-11-11 | Seattle Seahawks +6 v. San Francisco 49ers | 17-33 | Loss | -115 | 115 h 28 m | Show | |
The goal was to get a winning attitude placed on the 49ers by head coach Jim Harbaugh and what better way to do it than in the preseason. They finished 2-2 in the preseason and quite frankly were not very impressive in doing so. They were blown out by the Saints and Texans, the latter coming in the third game which is the most important for the starters. Now the real games start and while this team hopes to be better, San Francisco is in no position to be laying this many points to a team that is pretty much equal to it.
The Seahawks won the NFC West last season but doing so with a 7-9 record was rather unimpressive. Seattle proved at least some of the critics wrong as it went out and defeated New Orleans in the first round of the playoffs before succumbing at Chicago in the next round. While the Seahawks likely will not be vastly improved this year, they will be very much in the thick of the division race once again as they will field another team capable of winning the division and this time with a winning record. The quarterback situation for Seattle is a major question mark. Tavaris Jackson was brought in to take over for Matt Hasselbeck and while he is not the long term answer, he knows this system. Some people will consider this a downgrade but that is hardly the case. Since the start of 2008, Hasselbeck ranks 30th among 33 qualified players in Total Quarterback Rating. He was 32nd in 2008, 31st in 2009 and 26th in 2010. in my opinion, the decision to make a change was the right one and it is far from a downgrade. On the other side, San Francisco once again gives the ball to Alex Smith and he has yet to show the ability to be a consistent quarterback in the NFL. San Francisco will continue to emphasize a power scheme on offense as Harbaugh brings many more variations within the running game. He is installing a short-passing game that will give Smith bailout options should he find no one open on vertical routes. This will be a test as every defensive back on the Seattle roster is at least 5'10". San Francisco will have quite a new look on defense. Nate Clements, Aubrayo Franklin, Manny Lawson, Travis LaBoy, Takeo Spikes and Taylor Mays figured prominently into the 49ers' defensive plans at various points last season and all of them have moved on. They tried to upgrade the passing defense from last season and also provide more of a pass rush from the outside linebackers. In time, things may be better but right now the unit still has a long way to go in achieving those long-term results. 8* (473) Seattle Seahawks |
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09-11-11 | Buffalo Bills +6 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 112 h 30 m | Show | |
We won with the Bills in this matchup last season and while the line is much different this time around, the value is still on Buffalo. The main reason for the line dip is due to Matt Cassel currently listed as doubtful with a broken rib. He could still play but being anything less than 100 percent may actually hurt the team more. The Chiefs were division winners last season but they were rather fortunate to get there. As long as the Chargers play up to expectations, Kansas City will not sniff the playoffs this year.
Buffalo won't be seeing the postseason this year either. The Bills play in a tough division which doesn't help matters but I think this team will be much improved from last season. Looking at the top line, Buffalo went 4-12 last year but it was involved in some close games and that record could have been better. The Bills lost three games in overtime by a field goal and lost three others by a single possession. They were competitive and they will be competitive again this year, especially against the average teams in the league. Jamal Charles is a beast at running back and he will be the Bills number one priority to stop on defense. Last year, he could not be stopped in this matchup as he rushed for 177 yards on 22 carries (8.1 ypc) and as a team the Chiefs rushing for 274 yards but that was no surprise really. Buffalo's porous run defense allowed 169.6 ypg on 4.8 ypc, had eight games where they allowed 200 or more yards, and yielded nine individual 100-yard rushing games which were all worse in the NFL. Buffalo will be an improved unit in stopping the run although that is a safe statement as things cannot get much worse. I feel they will be much better though. First round draft pick Marcell Dareus was great in the preseason, and both he and Kyle Williams will help fortify Buffalo's the unit. The signing of linebacker Nick Barnett was a big pickup and they also added Shawne Merriman, who was hurt when he came into Buffalo last year, and Kirk Morrison so there are upgrades everywhere. On offense, the Bills are far from a potent unit but Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown signs of confidence and leadership that had been lacking at the position for years. He threw for 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns last year and finished with a respectable 81.8 passer rating. A controlled offense with a formidable running game is all that can be asked for. The Chiefs were a middle of the pack defense last season and while talk is they will be improved, they are not a dominant unit by any stretch. 9* (459) Buffalo Bills |
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09-11-11 | Indianapolis Colts +9 v. Houston Texans | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -115 | 116 h 32 m | Show |
Indianapolis was favored by a point in its meeting in Houston last season. Now the Colts are nine-point underdogs which is basically telling us that Peyton Manning is worth 10 points. No player in the NFL is worth that many points to his team and while the Colts cannot make the playoff without Manning, they are still an above average team without him. Houston has not been favored by this many points at home since laying nine against the Raiders in 2009. The Colts are nowhere near as bad as that Oakland team was.
The Texans have been the NFL's biggest underachievers over the past few seasons and once again, they are being thought of as a team that will break through and finally grab a playoff spot. Houston is loaded on offense with three superstars in quarterback Matt Schaub, running back Arian Foster and wide receiver Andre Johnson. Foster is listed as doubtful due to a hamstring injury and while rumor has it he will play, he may not be very effective as these types of injuries are not treated lightly. The big problem for the Texans has been the defense. They were the third worst defense last year, allowing 376.9 ypg and in term of points allowed, they were fourth worst, allowing 26.7 ppg. Houston brought in Wade Phillips to help the defense and while the unit should improve, it could take some time. They have switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense and a high-risk change like that can take time to develop. Defensive end Mario Williams was inconsistent in preseason after moving to the linebacker spot. Can the Colts survive on offense without Manning? As noted earlier, they are not a playoff team without him but they are not horrible either. If they were starting a young quarterback with no experience, things would be different but Kerry Collins is a veteran quarterback with tons of NFL knowledge. Last season, Collins led the Titans to a 31-17 victory over the Texans. In Collins' five starts against the Texans, Houston has allowed 28.6 ppg, giving up 31, 31, 12, 31 and 38 points. Taking a look at past meetings, the Texans have not had their way with the Indianapolis defense as they have been held to under 300 yards in four of the last six meetings and have never reached 400 totals yards over this span. The Colts defense can struggle against ball-control offense as they get worn down. It is a defense that is based on speed not size and we will likely see more man defense as opposed to the Cover 2. the secondary needs to step up and that will allow more pressure from the ends. 10* (461) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-11-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. St Louis Rams +5.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 15 m | Show |
The Eagles enter the season as NFL's equivalent to the Miami Heat in the NBA, basically a team so loaded it is being touted as the team to beat. The self-proclaimed 'Dream Team' look great on paper at individual positions but we have yet to see them play as a team. They could prove me wrong and come out of the gates and dominate all season but until we see that, we will be going against Philadelphia as much as we can. The Eagles lines are inflated now and will be inflated all year based on the offseason acquisitions.
St. Louis won two games in 2008 and one game in 2009 but emerged as a dark horse contender last year by going 7-9 and tying for the NFC West title but missing the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. The Rams should only get better and they have an excellent shot of taking the division this year because it is the weakest in football yet again. St. Louis showed huge improvements on offense and the defense is turning into one of the toughest and underrated units in the entire league. The addition of quarterback Sam Bradford showed immediate gains as the offense scored 114 more points than the previous season. Bradford is now in his second season and all of the talk about a 'sophomore slump' is pure nonsense. He had an average passer rating but still completed 60 percent of his passes and we have to remember he was a rookie thrown right into the fire. That year of experience is huge and he will only get better. He will be challenged right away here but he has the moxie to succeed. The Eagles historically struggle at stopping the run and while Steven Jackson did not look great in the preseason, he is one running back that goes 110 percent every time out there. While I don't expect Philadelphia to totally struggle, all of the new players will deter from the chemistry. In 2010, Philadelphia finished last in the redzone as it allowed 33 touchdowns in 43 possessions due to soft play up front. This was a priority to fix right away but even this will take time to come together. Michael Vick had a historic season last year and he will be hard pressed to repeat that performance. I still consider him to be one of the biggest liabilities at quarterback. He can be one of the best for sure but he gets into trouble too often and his propensity to take off puts him at a big injury risk. Right now the offensive line is a mess and you can bet that Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo will take advantage and try and confuse the Eagles with different looks. The Rams finished seventh in the NFL in sacks a year ago. 10* (464) St. Louis Rams |
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09-08-11 | New Orleans Saints +4 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
The hype for this game is huge in Green Bay with all of the festivities surrounding last year
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02-06-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -120 | 315 h 4 m | Show |
The matchup of this year
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01-23-11 | NY Jets v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a revenge game for the Steelers but when it comes to the playoffs, that angle is pretty much useless as the motivation for one side is unlikely to be bigger than the other side, especially with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Pittsburgh used a huge second half last week against the Ravens to comeback from a 21-7 deficit and it was rewarded with another home game thanks to the Jets upset of the Patriots. Laying a short price at home is only one of a number of factors the Steelers are the side here. In the first meeting, the Steelers held the Jets to only 276 total yards as New York could not get a running game going and despite being error-free, quarterback Mark Sanchez had only 170 yards passing. Pittsburgh was without safety Troy Polamalu for that game as well and we all know how he can completely change a game on the defensive side of things. Not to be overlooked, the Steelers linebackers can stop the run, rush the quarterback, blitz from anywhere and drop back into coverage. Baltimore scored 24 points last week but one of the touchdowns came on a defensive score and for the game, the Ravens had just 126 total yards. That is a huge effort by the Steelers defense and one that is overshadowed by the points given up. For the season, Pittsburgh finished second in the NFL in total defense and most importantly, first in scoring defense as well as first in rushing defense. The overall numbers are solid and they get even better when playing at home. Sanchez had his best game of the season last week against a very young and inexperienced Patriots defense. It was the first time he posted a passer rating greater than 100 since Week 11 and it was more than double of what it was the previous week. As mentioned, he played decent against the Steelers in the first meeting but I don
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01-23-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +4 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -115 | 91 h 41 m | Show |
Green Bay is the very popular play here which comes as no surprise as it has been playing very well over the last month and the public loves to ride these teams. I give a lot of credit to the Packers and we won with them last week in Atlanta in a rout but going for the third straight road win will be difficult. This recent surge has completely inflated this line and Green bay is over a field goal road favorite which is too aggressive of a move against the home divisional champions. The Beat are coming off an 11-point win last week against Seattle but the game was not as close as that score indicates as Chicago had a 28-0 lead before Seattle made a comeback in garbage time. The Beats outgained the Seahawks by 161 total yards and the benefit of playing at home is again a benefit as it negates the Packers advantage of having an extra day of rest. Chicago won the first meeting while Green Bay won the second by a 10-3 score and the defenses will make this one tight which benefits the home underdog. The Packers will be going for their third straight road playoff win as mentioned and they are not in a good spot as it has not been a good one throughout the years. Since 2000, six teams have won their first two playoff games on the road but only two of those went on to win the third playoff game on the road. Those four losses were by an average of 12.25 ppg and all came by at least a touchdown. They were on the wrong side of this scenario three years ago against the Giants. All of the talk is about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense and while Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, this is not going to be a cakewalk. Over the last two seasons covering 34 starts, he has 21 games of a passer rating of 100 or better but none of those have come against the Bears. He has two touchdowns and two interceptions against Chicago this season whose defense seems to not get the credit it deserves. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks a 74.4 passer rating, third best in the NFL. There are other important factors that are going against the Packers here. The biggest comes from last weeks result against the Falcons. Since the 2000 NFL playoffs, when a team scores 40 or more points in a game, the following game they are 4-7 SU & 1-10 ATS. This includes a 0-5 ATS mark when that team is favored. This is based on the simple bounce theory where a team is not as good as it looked the previous week and vice versa. Also, teams winning by 21 or more points are 4-9 ATS in their next playoff game. Also, play against road teams that are coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. The Bears fall into a great revenge spot also. Play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 in the second half of the season that are revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) Chicago Bears
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01-16-11 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots -8.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 18 m | Show | |
I
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01-16-11 | Seattle Seahawks v. Chicago Bears -10 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 136 h 58 m | Show |
We won a ticket last week on Seattle as it was able to take out the Saints outright at home. Things will be a little tougher this weekend on the road even though the Seahawks have already won once this season in Chicago. Initially at first glance, you would think Seattle has the value based on that victory as well as the fact that it was getting six points in that earlier meeting and now it is getting double-digits. However we still have to realize the Seahawks have a losing record and the run ends this week. Seattle played a great game last week but this has been a team that has struggled for the part of this season. The Seahawks are only 2-6 on the road this season, getting outscored by 12.4 ppg. Granted one of those wins came against the Bears but that only helps us here as Chicago certainly will not be taking this team lightly, especially after the wins last Saturday, and it has a good opportunity to gameplan better. Of the six road losses, all were by at least 15 points, so when it loses, it loses badly. The Bears are rested and healthy and will no doubt be out for revenge here. Chicago closed the season by going 7-2 over its last nine games with the only bad loss coming against the Patriots in a blizzard. The Bears have not been an overly dominating team this season as they have actually been outgained on average but they have a big edge in the defense in this matchup. Seattle allowed 474 yards to the Saints last week which is no surprise since it finished the regular season 27th in total defense with the Bears finishing ninth. It was a very impressive home win for Seattle in defeating the reigning Super Bowl Champions but that actually plays against the Seahawks here. We have seen this numerous times over the years and it has been a disaster next time out the majority of the time. Since 1985, 12 teams have defeated the previous Super Bowl Champion in the playoffs and it their next game, they have lost 10 of those. The only two wins happened to come in the Super Bowl, the Giants in 1990-91 and the 49ers in 1994-95. Take those out and teams are 0-10 in the next game following the win over the previous champs and this includes a 1-9 ATS record. The only cover came with the Chargers in 2007 where they lost by nine points as 14-point underdogs. The average victory in those 10 games is 13.3 ppg with six of those games being decided by 17 points or more. Basically teams that pull off those upsets have a tough time bouncing back and trying to repeat it for a second straight week. Making matters worse for the Seahawks is the fact that has not responded well from similar wins. They are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games following a win against the spread and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog between 7.5 and 14 points. The revenge factor does come into play for the Bears as they are 8-0 in their last eight games under head coach Lovie Smith revenging a home loss. Seattle won us money last week but the Bears roll this Sunday. 10* (114) Chicago Bears
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01-15-11 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. Atlanta Falcons | 48-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 57 m | Show | |
Atlanta has obviously had a great season as it wrapped up the number one seed in the NFC and has home field throughout the playoffs. The home field edge is big but it is not as big as it used to be as it seems as though the parity has equaled the playing field. Since 2000, the road team is 21-18-1 ATS in Divisional Round games against teams coming off a bye week including 11-5 ATS over the last four years. This is a tricky line as the short number would seem to give the edge to the home team but it is just the opposite. The Falcons went 7-1 at home this season, losing their second to last game of the season against the Saints and were fortunate that it did not come back to haunt them. The home schedule has blowout booked wins, a 34-point drubbing of Arizona in the opener and then a 21-point win over Carolina in the closer. Everything else was far from dominating. No other win was by more than seven points and victories over San Francisco were not decided until the final seconds and could easily have gone the other way. I went against Green Bay last week and that game could have gone either way as well. The Packers were fortunate with some costly errors by the Eagles but nonetheless, they advanced and have a shot at revenge against the Falcons. Green Bay lost on a last second field goal in that first meeting and realistically it should have won. Aaron Rodgers shouldered the blame as he made mistakes he does not make and the Packers won the yardage battle in that game by 124 total yards. Green Bay is now 4-5 on the season on the road which comes across as very mediocre. However, looking further tells us a different story. Six of those nine games were against playoff teams and while three of those resulted in losses, they were by a combined 10 points and all three came against teams that had a first round bye so they were some excellent teams. Aaron Rodgers did not even start against the Patriots. As a matter of fact, those five losses were all by four points or fewer and were by an average of 3.4 ppg. He headline for this game is the quarterback duel between Rodgers against Matt Ryan. Everyone is aware that Ryan has lost only two home games in his career in Atlanta but look at the schedule and that will tell you a lot as it has been very weak. Rodgers had his second-most productive game of the season in the first game in Atlanta with 344 yards while completing all but nine of his 36 passes. He spread the ball around to nine different pass catchers, seven of which had two or more receptions. Atlanta has been a covering machine this season but it is not in a favorable spot. The Falcons are 3-18 ATS in their last 21 home games off a home win and they are just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Meanwhile under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 17-7 ATS as road underdogs while Atlanta is 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 home games against teams with a winning record. The Packers keep on rolling. 9* (111) Green Bay Packers
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01-15-11 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 68 h 34 m | Show | |
This arguably has the makings for the best game of the weekend so it is a good way to kick off the divisional round. This will be the third meeting this season between the Ravens and Steelers with the road team winning the first two meetings by a field goal. It is now four straight meetings that have been decoded by a field goal which makes the underdog that much more attractive here. Baltimore is 6-3 on the road this season with a last minute loss in Atlanta and an overtime loss in New England being two blemishes. The Steelers are rested and arguably as healthy as they have been all season long which is certainly a concern in going against them. However, I
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01-09-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 60 m | Show | |
I like the way the Packers responded in their final two games to get into this position as the defense really stepped up, especially in the season finale against the Bears. Those two games were at home however where they finished the season 7-1, the lone loss coming in overtime against the Dolphins. On the road Green Bay went 3-5 though and while all five losses came by four points or fewer, this is a completely different scenario. We saw what happened to the defense in the playoffs on the road last season. The Eagles dropped their final two games of the season but it should not be an issue about killing momentum. The loss to the Vikings was a tough one no doubt but once that happened, they knew they could rest players in getting ready for the first round of the playoffs. The big concern was Michael Vick but all is fine and he will be ready to go. The Eagles actually played better on the road than at home but the other two losses besides the last two, they won the yardage battle. Taking a quick look at the numbers and we see Green Bay averaged 30.5 ppg on offense while allowing 15 ppg. On the road, it is a different story as the Packers averaged just 24.2 ppg while giving up 14.6 ppg. They scored 28 or more points six times at home while accomplishing that only one at Minnesota. They did put up 27 against the Eagles in Philadelphia but that was back on opening week and since then, the Eagles have not allowed more than 24 points at home. The Eagles losing their last two games to end the season is going to be a concern for some but it is irrelevant. They did not start a single regular season starter against the Cowboys, who started 17 starters from opening day, and they still only lost by a point. Rest and recuperation were obviously more important and it should be noted that five teams since 2001 lost their final two games of the regular season and played in the Wild Card rounds and they went 3-2 ATS. I would have thought the short number at home would get a majority of the action on the Eagles but as of Tuesday, Green Bay is the only underdog with the majority of the bets going its way. That obviously could change before gametime but it looks as though the opposing finishes the final two weeks is swaying the action toward the
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01-09-11 | Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 117 h 59 m | Show |
Going against Kansas City goes against the home underdog theory but there is good reason for that here. Seattle was the worst team in the NFL to win a division title while the Chiefs were second and it isn
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01-08-11 | NY Jets +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 100 h 43 m | Show | |
The last time these teams saw each other was just less than a year ago when the Colts defeated the Jets at home in the AFC Championship by 13 points. They were eight-point favorites in that game and this line has come down five points since then. Have things changed that much in just a year? I think they have actually changed even more than that so the value is on New York and if things do accordingly, we should get even more value as this number could easily sneak over the key number of three points. Indianapolis was a game away from missing the playoffs but it was able to defeat Jacksonville at home which was part of a four-game winning streak to end the regular season. The Colts were far from dominant in any of those games as all four could have been decided by five or fewer points if not for a late kickoff return against the Jaguars. This has been the case all season as they just have not been able to get back their usual swagger that we have seen for years. New York meanwhile closed the season rather slow by going 2-3 over its final five games and on the season, it defeated only two current playoff teams so a lot is being said about the Jets body of work. I disagree however. They played the eighth toughest schedule in the NFL and went 4-5 against the league
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01-08-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks +11 | 36-41 | Win | 100 | 96 h 15 m | Show | |
Obviously the Saints are the better team in this matchup but because of the Wild Card spot, they are off on the road to defend their Super Bowl title. We have to decipher how much better and whether New Orleans should be favored by this much. The Saints dropped two of their last three games to end the season and it easily could have been all three but got away with one in Atlanta. They were better overall on the road than at home but this line is simply too aggressive. Seattle won the NFC West with a 7-9 record so there will be arguments whether it should even be in the playoffs. If that is the case or not, the game still has to be played and the Seahawks will be plenty ready for this one. They went 5-3 at home this season with the three losses coming against playoff teams by big margins. That alone will keep people off Seattle and that is more than fine. Seattle has not been a double-digit home underdog since September of 1996 and there is no reason it deserves to be now. Since 2000, there have been 15 home underdogs in the playoffs and those teams went 10-5 ATS. Of those, none were double-digit underdogs. That shows the value in this Seattle line and also if this game was being played in New Orleans, this line is telling us that the Saints would be favored by around 18 points and that certainly would not be the case. Why? They were 11-point favorites over the Seahawks seven weeks ago and now they are favorites of that amount on the road which is too big of an adjustment. The Seahawks are being said to have backed into the playoffs but they won the game they needed to and come into the postseason with as much confidence as it has had all season. The defense came to life against St. Louis and while New Orleans is much better offensively than the Rams, something just is not clicking like it did last year. The Saints are averaging 24 ppg which is down over a touchdown from last season while the total offense has decreased from 403.8 ypg to 372.5 ypg. Charlie Whitehurst did an excellent job in his second start for Seattle as he did exactly what he needed to do. The good news for the Seahawks is that they are getting Matt Hasselbeck back for this game and his veteran leadership is going to be a big asset. Many are calling Seattle the worst playoff team in the history of the NFL and based on statistics, that may be the case. However, playing at home makes a huge difference and they are facing a team that struggles when laying big points. The Seahawks fall into a solid turnover situation as well. Play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one turnover or fewer going up against an opponent after a game where it committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1983. The Saints are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record and 2-6 ATS when favored by more than 10 points so blowing away this team is going to be a lot harder than what the linesmakers are making us believe. 9* (102) Seattle Seahawks
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01-02-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans -3 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show | |
Jacksonville needs to win this game and hope the Colts lose at home to the Titans for it to claim the AFC South and that just is not going to happen. The Jaguars had control of their own destiny but lost at Indianapolis and then lost last week at home against the Redskins. Now quarterback David Garrard has been ruled out of this game and Trent Edwards will be taking over for him. That is the nail in the coffin we were looking for as the Jaguars are officially cooked. The Texans are playing good enough football to win but are finding ways to lose. I think this will be an exception for a few reasons. First, this is the final home game and after a strong start and disappointing finish, Houston needs to end on a high note at home. Also, the Texans will be playing for head coach Gary Kubiak who is a players coach and likely will be canned at the end of the season. Lastly, Houston is playing for revenge from that Hail Mary fiasco that took place in Jacksonville in November. With Garrard out for this game, I expected the line to move but it hasn
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01-02-11 | Arizona Cardinals +6 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 13 m | Show |
The 49ers playoff chances evaporated last week and with that head coach Mike Singletary was fired by Monday. With the season officially done, San Francisco is going to have a hard time getting up for this one as well as putting together any sort of execution due to the coaching change. But yet the 49ers are favored by close to a touchdown against a team with an identical record and one that is more ready to end the season on a high note rather than pack it in. Arizona is coming off a win over Dallas on Christmas and it should be taking that momentum into this big revenge game. The Cardinals have looked solid for the most part with John Skelton at quarterback. They are 2-1 and while the loss at Carolina looks bad, it actually wasn
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01-02-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns +6 | 41-9 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 52 m | Show | |
Week 17 is a week in the NFL where we can find some serious line value because lines are inflated due to must win situations which in turn sway public perception. Pittsburgh and Cleveland is a perfect example. The Browns were getting 3.5 points last Sunday at home against the Ravens and now they are getting six points at home this week against a team that is not any different. The Steelers need to win to take the AFC North and the line in severely overinflated because of it. Pittsburgh put up 27 points last Thursday against the hapless Panthers, the first time they have scored more than 23 points in five weeks. This offense will continue to struggle because the offensive line is completely decimated with injuries. The Cleveland defense is a below average unit on the season as a whole but it has been playing well in recent weeks against some mediocre offenses. It is safe to say the Steelers fall into that category and I cannot see that offense doing a whole lot this week. The Browns will need to move the ball on offense and while it is easier said than done, I believe that Colt McCoy is going to bounce back from last weeks poor effort. The Steelers defense is second in the NFL and they completely shut down Carolina last week but who hasn
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01-02-11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 v. New Orleans Saints | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 49 m | Show | |
The NFL made some time adjustments this weekend making the games that will affect each other go off at the same time. This is an early start so there will be plenty on the line from the opening gun. Tampa Bay is still alive in the playoff picture albeit very slightly. The Buccaneers need to win here while hoping both the Giants and Packers lose their games and both of those games were moved to 4:15 so their will be no scoreboard watching from Tampa Bay as they simply need to win and pray. New Orleans locked up a playoff berth last week with a big win in Atlanta and while winning the NFC South is still an option, it is not likely. The Saints need to win and hope the Panthers defeat the Falcons in Atlanta as over two-touchdown underdogs. So while there is no scoreboard watching on the Tampa Bay sidelines, there will be scoreboard watching on the Saints sidelines. If Atlanta is coasting, we can expect the New Orleans starters to sit to avoid injuries as it would be playing next week. Tampa Bay looked horrible in the first meeting as it as outgained by close to 200 yards but the Buccaneers won in New Orleans last season so they are far from intimidated. The Saints are playing on a short and coming off a very physical game that took a lot out of the players. There will be no running it up here. You will see this line anywhere from +7.5 to +9. It is not a huge deal if you cannot get more than +7.5 as it is off the key number of seven and the +9 is basically for teaser protection. The Buccaneers fall into some incredible revenge situations and here is one of those. Play on road teams with a winning record on the season and are revenging a loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential actually favoring the road team by +5.1 ppg. 8* (325) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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01-02-11 | Cincinnati Bengals +10 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 56 m | Show |
Baltimore is playing for revenge against the Bengals and it is also playing for the AFC North title should Pittsburgh stumble in Cleveland. The Ravens are coming off a win last week against the Browns which clicked them a playoff spot and they must now play their second straight divisional game while riding a three-game winning streak. Despite the recent run, Baltimore has been outgained in three of its last four games and on the season it is only +17.3 ypg in yardage margin. We cashed an easy ticket with the Bengals last week and we will ride them again as they are playing at their best right now. Cincinnati is better than its 4-11 record indicates as it has lost seven games by a possession or less. The focus and motivation seemed to be lacking at Pittsburgh three weeks ago but the Bengals bounced back with a win against Cleveland and carried that into the upset last week against the Chargers. I think they can keep it rolling with what I feel is a line that is simply too high in this spot. Baltimore is 6-1 at home while the Bengals are 1-6 on the road and that is playing into this number. Yet Cincinnati is getting outscored by exactly a touchdown in those games while the Ravens are outscoring opponents by the same amount so we are seeing additional line value here due to the
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12-28-10 | Minnesota Vikings +14 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show | |
The Eagles are coming off an improbable win over the Giants last week as they scored four touchdowns in the latter half of the fourth quarter to absolutely stun the Giants. That victory basically locked up the division for Philadelphia (it was locked up Sunday with the Giants losing) and that win also provides us with a solid spot to go against the letdown. With that game being a divisional game, it will make it even more difficult for the Eagles to get up for this one, and even more so trying to cover the two-touchdown number. We were not in play in that game but we were in play last Monday in going against the Vikings. We have actually gone against Minnesota the last two games and while both were at home, they were not played at home and the distractions involved made them good go against spots. Now Minnesota is on the road and more importantly, it has had extra time because of the postponement following a short week. The defense is playing at a high level still and that will keep this one much closer than expected. Minnesota falls into a solid situation that has been successful for the last 27 years. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. Also, the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five after gaining 350 or more total yards. The Vikings have yet to cover as underdogs this season but they have not been underdogs of a number this high either. 9* (133) Minnesota Vikings
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12-27-10 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides as Atlanta and New Orleans have different goals in action here. The Falcons can clinch the top seed in the NFC and home field throughout the playoffs which comes with that. Atlanta is no an absolute roll with wins in eight straight games including the last three coming on the road but I think it is not an impressive as it is being made into. Only two of those wins came against likely playoff teams and both of those came in the final seconds of the game. The Saints are coming off a loss in Baltimore last week which makes the Saints the more desperate team here and because of the success of last season, it should make them much better in this situation. They had won six straight games prior to the loss last week and like the Falcons, the wins were not against the best on competition with the exception of the Steelers. The overall numbers are better on the Saints side as they are outgaining opponents by 65.6 ypg while the Falcons are only +16.5 ypg in overall margin. Play on underdogs or pickems after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last five seasons. The Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a road loss while the Falcons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after three or more consecutive wins against the number. Also, New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. 10* (131) New Orleans Saints
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12-26-10 | NY Giants +3 v. Green Bay Packers | 17-45 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 27 m | Show | |
People will be fading the Giants this week following last week
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12-26-10 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals +9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 55 h 47 m | Show |
The Chargers are right back in the hunt in the AFC West following two straight blowout wins over Kansas City and San Francisco. Teams that score 30 or more points in back-to-back games are often good to play against next time out but it gets even better as the Chargers allowed a total of seven points in those games as well. San Diego is coming off three straight home games and even though it is still playing for its playoff lives, this is not an ideal situation to be in at all. The Bengals snapped their 10-game losing streak last week with a win over the Browns. The competition gets tougher this week but now the Bengals go from home favorites to home underdogs and big home underdogs for that matter. Cincinnati is without Terrell Owens this week but that did not hurt last week as the Bengals finally got back to running the ball. They may not have as much success since San Diego is a much better defense but the situation calls for a good effort. Cincinnati falls into two solid situations. Play against road teams that are outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after having lost five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 28-10 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (130) Cincinnati Bengals
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12-26-10 | San Francisco 49ers +3 v. St. Louis Rams | 17-25 | Loss | -125 | 51 h 24 m | Show | |
At 5-9, San Francisco still has a shot at the NFC West division title if it wins out and Seattle loses against Tampa Bay this week. The 49ers have been playing pretty well over the second half of the season despite last week
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12-26-10 | Tennessee Titans v. Kansas City Chiefs -5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 18 m | Show | |
The Chiefs were able to bounceback nicely last week against the Rams following their poor showing in San Diego the previous week. The absence of Matt Cassel was the big reason for the shutout against the Chargers and his return last week helped to propel the offense for 27 points and 383 total yards. Kansas City is 6-0 at home this season covering four of those and if it can win out the final two games at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs will be divisional champions. This is a highly motivated team right now. With the win last week, Tennessee snapped its six-game losing streak and believe it or not, kept its hopes alive for the AFC South title. The Titans need to win out, hope that the Colts lose in Oakland and that the Jaguars lose out. Obviously, the chances are slim. Going against the Titans here is the fact that they are coming off a three-game homestand which makes the travel part very difficult. Tennessee is riding a three-game road losing streak and has been outgained in six of its last seven games. Kansas City falls into a potent power situation here. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost four or five out of their last six games going up against an opponent after having won four out of their last five games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against teams with a winning record while the Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams allowing 235 or more passing ypg. 8* (122) Kansas City Chiefs
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12-26-10 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 31 m | Show |
Washington played very well last week in Dallas with Rex Grossman at quarterback. I expect the Redskins to once again play hard even though it is in a divisional sandwich with the Giants on tap for next week. They are 5-9 on the season but five of those losses have been by four points or fewer so the record could be better and it shows they have been competitive for the most part. Washington has played better on the road this season than at home and that will continue. Jacksonville
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12-25-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. Arizona Cardinals +7 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
Dallas has improved considerably since former head coach Wade Phillips was fired but it has not gotten that much better where it should be laying a touchdown on the road against a team that is only one game worse. And yet the public cannot get enough of it. The Cowboys no doubt have the better offense in this matchup but they also no doubt have the worst defense in recent games and Arizona will be able to take advantage. Dallas has allowed 30 points or more in four straight games and is in a divisional sandwich. The Cardinals are coming off a loss at Carolina which came after a big home win over Denver the previous week. That was the first start for rookie quarterback John Skelton and it was a good one but he did not fare well in his first road start which was expected. Back in Arizona, he should once again play well. The Cardinals are 3-4 at home and this is the final home game of the season and while no longer in the same division, the Cowboys are still a very hated team. The Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog while the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite. Dallas is also just 4-20 ATS in its last 24 road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Meanwhile under head coach Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona is 10-1 ATS in its 11 home games against teams averaging 235 or more passing ypg and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. 10* Arizona Cardinals
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12-23-10 | Carolina Panthers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -14 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
The Steelers lost last week against the Jets but still clinched a playoff spot because of what when on around them. They are still not division champions and they are still going after a first round bye with the possibility of home field advantage throughout the playoffs still a slight possibility as well. This is going to provide the motivation for the Steelers and coming off a loss last week sets up a great bounceback opportunity. Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS as a touchdown or more favorite so this line is not intimidating. Helping our cause is the fact that the Panthers won last week at home over Arizona and now have to travel on a short week which has been a disaster this season for road teams when playing a winning team. The Panthers outgained the Cardinals last week, the first time they have outgained an opponent since Week Seven against the 49ers. Carolina has been involved in only two close losses as their other 10 defeats came by an average of 17 points so this team certainly knows how to lose badly. As mentioned, the Steelers are 3-0 ATS this season as a touchdown or more favorite and they are 7-0 ATS this season when allowing 14 or fewer points. Additionally, the Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a losing road record while the Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. Finally Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after outgaining its opponent by 100 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 9* Pittsburgh Steelers
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12-20-10 | Chicago Bears -7.5 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 40-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
As everyone is aware, this game is being played at TCF Bank Stadium which is the home of the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Metrodome is a pretty solid home field advantage for the Vikings and while this is still a home game, it will be far from the same. The field conditions are reportedly horrendous as the field is like concrete and while it is the same for both teams, it favors the teams with a strong defense going up against a third-string quarterback. The Bears are coming off an embarrassing home loss last week against the Patriots and the conditions were worse than what they are going to see tonight. That is a big edge for Chicago. Not only does it need to bounceback from that defeat but the familiarity with the outdoor conditions is a solid advantage even though it is only a two-game thing. The Bears are even more eager to take this game following the loss last night by the Packers as a win here puts Chicago two games up in the NFC North. Minnesota is coming off a loss last Monday night against the Giants and the offense struggled with just 164 total yards. This week, the Vikings have to go with third-string quarterback Joe Webb and it will not be easy for the offense to survive. The Bears are ninth in the NFL in total defense including second in the league in rushing defense. That is a big edge for Chicago as Minnesota needs too have a running game to be successful with a third-stringer going and that just won
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12-19-10 | NY Jets +6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 75 h 44 m | Show |
This line is based on an overreaction to what we have seen the last two weeks. The Jets were hammered in New England two weeks ago and last week they put up a dud at home against the Dolphins, clearly a letdown spot following that Patriots game. Now the public is saying this team is done as the offense has completely tanked and that in turn has given us tremendous line value here. The Jets were getting four points in New England two weeks ago and now they are getting more points in Pittsburgh which makes no sense. The Steelers are coming off back-to-back divisional wins which have pretty much locked up the AFC North. They have Carolina and Cleveland on deck and while they might give the Jets some extra attention because of that, I think we can expect a letdown effort here. As with the case with the Jets line comparison, the Steelers line comparison is off as well. They were favored by nine points last week against a team that has lost 10 straight games and now are favored by only a field goal less against a likely playoff team. The talk is about how New York has been horrible on offense the last two weeks but there are not better things taking place on the other side. Pittsburgh continues to shine on defense but this offense has been able to do nothing and that is a major concern. The Steelers have totaled one touchdown on offense in their last 11 quarters since scoring in the first quarter during a 19-16 overtime victory against the Bills. Part of the problem is an offensive line that is in shambles. While the Steelers defense remains the strength for them, the same can be said for the Jets as well. They were horrible against the Patriots but they are still third in the NFL in total defense and sixth in scoring defense so there is no reason to believe the Steelers will all of a sudden find their offensive rhythm. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in rushing defense but the Jets are not far behind and as far as yards per carry is concerned, the two are first and second in the league. The Jets have not scored an offensive touchdown over the last two games after piling up 26.3 ppg during its four-game winning streak. Granted those games were against some pretty bad teams and they have had their problems with the top teams in the league but this scenario is completely different. This is the biggest line the Jets have seen since last season and with two teams going through similar problems, the overinflated underdog is the way to go especially in what could be a low scoring defensive battle. The Jets have been very solid as underdogs in this range, san the New England game, as they are 6-1 SU and ATS as underdogs of fewer than a touchdown over the last two seasons. Going back further the Jets are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games coming off a home divisional loss. The Steelers meanwhile are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win of two or more touchdowns. We take advantage of a line that is off by a good three points. 10* (325) New York Jets
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12-19-10 | Atlanta Falcons v. Seattle Seahawks +7 | 34-18 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 19 m | Show | |
The public is all over the Falcons in this game but this is a horrible spot for Atlanta. They have won seven straight games so they are definitely playing excellent football but this is their third straight road game with the first two being divisional games. On top of that, Atlanta has a huge game on deck at home against the Saints next Monday night. We saw this last with the Rams which had won two straight road games and laid an egg in their third straight road game against New Orleans. Seattle was pounded in San Francisco last week which was its third loss in four games and its fifth loss in its last seven games. Despite being a game under .500 the Seahawks are still in a first place tie with St. Louis in the NFC West so they are still playing for a lot. They are 4-2 at home this season and while those two losses were huge ones against the Chiefs and Giants, also playoff contenders, this situation is a lot different from those two games as injuries and fourth quarter meltdowns played parts in those. Taking nothing away from what Atlanta has done this season but the fact it is 11-2 is a big surprise. The Falcons have been outgained on the ground 4.0 ypc to 4.6 ypc as well as outgained through the air 6.3 ypa to 6.88 ypa. You will find it difficult to find any team that is nine games over .500 and being outgained on average in both categories. Seattle is at a deficit in both categories as well but the Seahawks are not being asked to lay a touchdown on the road against a team in a must win situation. Turnovers have played a huge role in both of these teams
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12-19-10 | New Orleans Saints +1.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 5 m | Show | |
New Orleans suffered through a post Super Bowl hangover early in the season as it started 4-3 and only one of those victories was a dominating one. The Saints have picked up steam however and are peaking at the right time as they have won six straight games including three on the road and going back further, they have won four straight games on the road. Those four wins have comes against some poor opposition but I
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12-19-10 | Buffalo Bills +5.5 v. Miami Dolphins | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 71 h 59 m | Show | |
Can the Bills keep their momentum rolling? I think this is an excellent spot for Buffalo as it has shown over the last few games that it has not tossed in the towel this season. The Bills had a string of three straight losses by a field goal and those are the games that can deflate a team but they fought on and were finally able to win their first game right after that against the Lions. They are 3-2 over their last five games and could be 4-1 with the overtime loss against the Steelers being a dropped pass from a win. Miami kept its slim playoff hopes alive with a huge win last week against the Jets. That game was on the road where the Dolphins have been extremely successful this season, going 6-1 compared to just 1-5 at home. While that was a big one, it was more of a case of the Jets losing than Miami winning and I am still not sold on this team with Chad Henne at quarterback. Miami started the season with two straight wins but it has not won consecutive games since then. Miami won the first meeting this season in Buffalo by five points but this is a completely different Bills team as they started Trent Edwards at quarterback and Marshawn Lynch at running back. While the season was lost a long time ago for Buffalo, it is entering a very important stretch as this is the first of three straight divisional games to end the year. The one thing this team needs is momentum heading into next season and this is definitely the most winnable game of the final three. The players are not thinking about the offseason which is important for non-playoff teams facing teams competing for the playoffs and their overinflated lines.
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12-19-10 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Indianapolis Colts -4.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 21 m | Show |
We caught a bad beat last Thursday with the Colts which were backdoored with no time left against the Titans and while that was a horrible break for us, the Colts still won and that is big heading into this game. Last week Indianapolis was playing on a short week on the road but this week it is playing with three extra days of preparation at home which makes it a big edge. Last week was a must win for the Colts and the same hold true this week as winning out gives them the division. Jacksonville continues to play good enough to win and it has been extremely fortunate in three of its last four wins as those have come in the final two minutes and in one case, the final seconds. The Jaguars have surprised many with this late season run after starting the season 3-4 with those four losses all being blowouts. Their three road wins have come against teams that will not be in the playoffs while the three losses have come against teams that are in the playoff hunt. Indianapolis has been riddled with injuries this season and while the injury report is still loaded with questionable players, we could see some making returns this week. The big one is Austin Collie and his return would be a big addition. Indianapolis is ranked first in the NFL in passing offense, the ninth straight season it has been ranked in the top six in passing offense. Jacksonville meanwhile is ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 8.7 ypa and its 258.3 ypg allowed is 28th. Indianapolis is going to have to contend with the Jaguars rushing offense as Jacksonville is ranked second in the NFL in rushing offense. The Colts meanwhile have been a sieve against the run but in this series, it has not been a huge factor as the Jaguars have outrushed the Colts in the last six meetings, averaging 156 ypg over that span, but the Colts have won four of those and the two games the Jaguars won, they won by only five points combined. This is a revenge game for the Colts and Peyton Manning does not lose these games. He is 19-1 in revenge games coming off a win including a win in this scenario this season as he defeated the Texans by 13 points following an earlier loss. After putting together his worst three-game stretch of his career, he came back last week with a great performance against the Titans and he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. It is safe to say he has not lost it. The Colts fall into a very solid power situation as well. Play against road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after two or more consecutive wins, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) since 1983. The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the second half of the season against winning teams and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that rush for 4.5 ypc or better. 10* (308) Indianapolis Colts
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12-16-10 | San Francisco 49ers +9 v. San Diego Chargers | 7-34 | Loss | -120 | 53 h 40 m | Show | |
We won with the Chargers this past Sunday rather easily but we will switch sides this week in what should be a pretty difficult spot. San Diego moved to within a game of the Chiefs in the AFC West and while it is still in a must win spot, this one will prove to be more difficult. The short week does not help even though it is at home because it follows two straight home divisional games and must win or not, it spells letdown. We are seeing the early action coming in all over the Chargers yet the line has dropped. San Francisco kept its season alive with a blowout against the Seahawks. The 49ers are now three games under .500 but are just a game out of the NFC West so their season is on the line once again Thursday. The 49ers do not have to travel far and have an edge that most Thursday road teams do not have and that is an extra day of preparation. This team is capable of putting together a late season run and can clinch the division as it still has two divisional games left as they need to win out and have the Seahawks lose once. The Chargers late season push is upon us and because this is becoming so publicly recognized, the line value on the Chargers is gone. I played the Chargers last week because of a number of factors, none of which had to do with line value because there really wasn
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12-13-10 | NY Giants -4 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 21-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
In a rare NFL postponement due to weather, the Giants and Vikings game was rescheduled until Monday in Detroit. Many will say this is an edge for Minnesota and its quarterback situation but in my opinion this is a huge break for the Giants. With about 20 inches of snow falling in the Twin Cities area and the closing of the airport, the Giants' charter flight was diverted to Kansas City and the team spent Saturday night there. The move to Detroit meant an easier trip into the venue. According to the New York Daily News, it could've been worse, though, and it nearly was when the NFL was ready to enforce the original kickoff time despite the Giants' scrambled travel plans. As a result, the Giants were planning to wake up at 6 a.m. CT Sunday, board buses in Kansas City at 7:15 AM, and board their charter plane in time for an 8 AM takeoff. They were scheduled to land in Minneapolis at 9 AM and get to the Metrodome by 10 AM, just two hours before kickoff. As for injuries, the league got what it wanted but New York is not at a disadvantage. The extra day was good for the Vikings as it gave Brett Favre an extra day to rest his ailing shoulder and give him a chance to extend his NFL record for consecutive starts but he is still very questionable. However, the postponement may have benefitted the Giants even more as it game receivers Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks an extra day as well and that is huge for the Giants offense. As for the game itself, this is a must win for the Giants and with the switch, it is even more so now. They will have one less day of preparation for their game next week against the Eagles which could be a big issue if they lose this game and sit a game behind Philadelphia in the NFC East. Another benefit is that New York has already seen that the Eagles were winners on Sunday night so the Giants know they will need to leave Minnesota with a victory. The Giants will be looking for some payback as well. In last season
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12-12-10 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +4 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
The Cowboys have completely turned their season around after the firing of head coach Wade Philips. Granted, the playoffs are not in the future for Dallas but it is playing like a team fighting for the playoffs and there is no reason to thing it stops here. Following a last second loss against the Saints on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys responded with a big road win at Indianapolis last week in overtime. There will be no letdown however with this being the first meeting against the hated Eagles on national television. The Eagles are coming off a win against Houston last Thursday so they have had extra preparation time for this game but I do not think it is that significant. Philadelphia has looked average the last two games following a three-game winning streak that included a win over the Colts, a blowout of the Redskins on Monday night and a domination of the then-red hot Giants. The Eagles were outgained against Houston and were completely outplayed in Chicago before making the game more respectable in garbage time. What Jason Garrett has done to the Cowboys has been pretty special as this team had tossed in the towel weeks ago. Garrett has encouraged more physical, up-tempo practices and that clearly gets players ready for upcoming games, something Philips could not do. The result has been more forced turnovers as Dallas has 11 takeaways in four games, and more big plays, including 18 of 20 or more yards on offense. The reason for the latter has been a great emphasis of running the ball, creating much more balance. The Cowboys have averaged 34 carries the last four games after averaging just 21 carries in the first eight contests. It is no surprise that Dallas has averaged almost 150 rushing yards in the last four games and last week, Tashard Choice rushed for 100 yards on 19 carries against the Colts. Quarterback Jon Kitna has benefited greatly from the Cowboys re-emphasis on the run game as he has thrown more than 30 passes just once in the last five games, but has completed 68 percent of his attempts and has averaged 7.89 ypa. Defensively, the Cowboys need to try and slow down Michael Vick, something not many teams have been able to do. He is obviously having a great season and the Cowboys defense has been far from strong this year but if there is going to be a full effort, this is the game it happens in, similar to how the defense showed up against the Giants. The Cowboys want to pressure the pocket on passing downs to maintain leverage on Vick in order to keep him in the pocket. The Eagles have allowed 33 sacks, 26th most in the NFL. The Cowboys fall in a solid time-tested situation. Play against road favorites that are coming off a home win, in December games. This simple yet effective situation is 116-70 ATS (62.4 percent) since 1983. Dallas is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games after allowing 35 points or more while going 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 300 or more yards passing. The Eagles meanwhile are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (132) Dallas Cowboys
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12-12-10 | New England Patriots v. Chicago Bears +3 | 36-7 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a great spot for the Bears and a horrible spot for the Patriots. As for New England, it is coming off a whitewashing of the Jets and teams that blow away the opposition usually do in fact play well in their next game but this situation is different. The Patriots are now in a difficult spot coming off that win as it was a huge revenge game for the Patriots. They were a field goal favorite over New York at home and now they are a field goal favorite on the road against a team with an identical record as the Jets. Chicago is getting no respect here but it has won five straight games and is shutting up all of the critics. The Bears are winning ugly but Bears football has long been known for being ugly. Last week Chicago was a 5.5-point favorite on the road and now it is a field goal underdog at home. That line swing is completely unjustified no matter what the difference in competition is. The Bears need to keep winning with Green bay right behind them and a game at the Packers still looming. New England was able to take out a solid Jets defense on Monday but that was at home in a revenge situation and now the Patriots hit the road against the third ranked defense in the NFL. Chicago is allowing over 90 yards fewer per game than the Patriots are allowing and that is a huge disparity especially when playing at home. Chicago was in a very similar spot a few games back against the Eagles and it limited that high-powered offense to 207 total yards through three quarters before the garbage yards came. The Bears offense has been doing just enough to get the job done. This week they will face off against a Patriots defense that is ranked 31st in the NFL in yards allowed and now that the Bears are rushing the ball better, they should have excellent success here. Chicago is 8-0 when it outrushes its opponent and 1-3 when it loses the rushing battle. The Patriots are averaging only 83.7 ypg on the ground on the road while the bears are allowing just 81.7 ypg on the ground at home. The Patriots win on Monday was a huge one no doubt but that is only going to get the public even more on New England. As of Thursday afternoon, the Patriots are the most heavily bet team of all the Sunday teams as they have 86 percent of action according to offshore reports and yet we have not seen the line budge. A divisional win on Monday night and now playing a non-divisional road game is not going to have New England too amped for this one and historically, it has been a solid play against situation. Chicago falls into a simple yet effective power situation. Play against road favorites that are coming off a home win, in December games. This situation is 116-70 ATS (62.4 percent) since 1983. Also, the Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game while the Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog of fewer than three points. We take advantage of a number that is completely off. 9* (110) Chicago Bears
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12-12-10 | Denver Broncos v. Arizona Cardinals +4.5 | 13-43 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
The firing of head coach Josh McDaniels was surprising but at the same time, not so much. It was surprising it happened now with only four games remaining in the season and no one on deck to replace him. The Broncos have gone 5-17 since a 6-0 start to last season and they were not improving at all so a change was probably a good move although I feel a coach should get at least three years to prove himself. Now we have an unproven coach favored on the road by 5.5 points? I don
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12-12-10 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers -7 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 138 h 11 m | Show |
The Chargers were going to likely be a play this week depending what sort of line we got. Based on the results from Week 13, we are getting a better line than originally thought so this has turned into a much bigger play. San Diego was making its annual late season charge after a slow start until it was upset on Sunday against the Raiders, the second loss to Oakland this season. It could have been a case of a lookahead but even if not, the Chargers are in must win mode. The Chiefs remain in first place in the NFC West after squeaking out a win against the Broncos on Sunday. They are two games ahead of the Raiders and Chargers and they can end the Chargers division hopes and playoff hopes most likely with a win but it is not as easy as that. Heading west in a tough environment against a team whose season is on the line is tough for any team and even more so with revenge on the line. The Chiefs won the first meeting this season despite getting outgained by close to 200 yards. This is a line that the public will be all over the underdog and we are seeing that already. Kansas City has won two more games than San Diego yet is getting a touchdown on the road and that is going to draw a lot of action its way. I think we would have seen a line around eight or nine had the Chargers defeated the Raiders so the value is definitely on our side here. San Diego was favored by 13 points against a team that was a game worse buy only seven points against a team that is just two games better. The Raiders were able to knock off the Chargers because of a muffed punt by Daren Sproles and a Philip Rivers interception. They were able to turn both of those turnovers into touchdowns and in the end, that made the difference. That was almost d
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12-09-10 | Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
It
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12-06-10 | NY Jets +4 v. New England Patriots | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a revenge game for the Patriots and that is putting the public on the home team which is giving us value with this number. New England is favored by 3.5 pretty much everywhere across the board and in a divisional game between teams with identical records, the number is usually right at a field goal so we are catching a hook on top of the key number which can definitely come into play. However, this is a game that the Jets should take outright so it won
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12-05-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 28 m | Show |
Pittsburgh and Baltimore square off for first place in the AFC North and it has the looks of another great battle. The last three meetings and five of the last six have been decided by four points or fewer but history does not mean much when it comes to this rematch. Pittsburgh lost the first meeting at home this season against the Ravens in Week Four which happened to be the last game of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger
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12-05-10 | Carolina Panthers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 56 m | Show | |
Seattle is a notoriously tough team at home but this season, things are not going well. The Seahawks are 3-2 at home but that record is very deceiving as two wins came against the 49ers and Chargers despite being outgained in both and the third came against Arizona, which is turning into one of the worst teams in the NFL. On the season, Seattle has been outgained in eight of its 11 games including four of its last five by an average of 247.5 ypg. There is no way the Seahawks should be laying anything close to a touchdown. Carolina is the only remaining one-win team in the NFL but the Panthers continue to play hard each and every week. We won with the Panthers last week on the road against the Browns and the difference in competition from last week to this week is not much different. There are no consolations in losses but Carolina played its best game last week since picking up its first win on the season six games back against the 49ers. There is some confidence that goes along with that. On the season the Panthers are getting outgained by an average of 77 ypg while the Seahawks are getting outgained by an average of 99.6 ypg. Carolina has played a schedule ranked 18th in the NFL while Seattle has played a schedule ranked 28th in the league so you can do the math and see which teams is actually playing more consistent despite possessing fewer wins. The big difference is no the defensive side of the ball and when we have an underdog with a much better defense, it is definitely worth a look. The Seattle offense has been hit or miss all season long and a lot of that is because of quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and wide receiver Mike Williams. When those two are healthy, opposing teams have a tough time stopping them. When Williams has 64 or more yards receiving, the Seahawks are 4-1 but when he doesn
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12-05-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. Indianapolis Colts -5 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 43 m | Show | |
Here we have two teams that seem to be heading in opposite directions but that is more media babble than reality. The Colts have dropped two straight games and they have not lost three straight games since 2002 and everyone seems to be bashing this team right now and saying they are done. Conversely, the Cowboys have turned things around, or so it seems, with two straight wins followed by a narrow loss last week against the Saints which would have made it three straight victories. Don
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12-05-10 | Denver Broncos +9.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a revenge game for the Chiefs after they were hammered in Denver three weeks ago. This is the game where Kansas City head coach Todd Haley refused to shake hands with Denver head coach Josh McDaniels so the public is taking this and running with it thinking the Chiefs get their revenge at home. While Kansas City will be stoked for this one, you can bet the Broncos will be just as stokes after the childish and unsportsmanlike behavior that came their way. Denver is obviously not playing well but this line is out of control and the revenge factor is definitely playing a part. The Broncos are just 1-6 over their last seven games and that is definitely playing a part as well but they actually matchup well against Kansas City. Taking a look back two weeks ago on Monday night, Denver was getting nine points in San Diego and now it is getting the same amount, and even more in some places against the Chiefs. Despite a better record, the Chiefs are not a better team than the Chargers. Denver has been outrushed in six of its last eight games which seems like a cause for concern but I do not think it is. First of all, the Broncos are a pass oriented offense so they do not run the ball as much. And while they are 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, they are allowing only 4.3 ypc which is a much better indicator. The Chiefs are the top rushing offense in the NFL but they were held to 51 yards on 22 carries (2.3 ypc) in that first meeting and that cannot be overlooked. The Kansas City defense is not very good either. The Chiefs are 18th in total defense and 24th against the pass which falls right into the strength of the Broncos offense. Kansas City is middle of the pack in sacks and it registered none in the first meeting. I expect the Chiefs to apply more pressure to Kyle Orton but being successful is another story. With Kansas City lacking a shutdown corner, we can expect McDaniels to move receiver Brandon Lloyd around a lot, looking for favorable matchups in single coverage. We can also take a common sense approach. Denver is getting outgained this season by an average of only 13 ypg. On the other side, the Chiefs are outgaining opponents by just 32.3 ypg. That combined variance is a mere 45.3 ypg which does not add up to a double-digit pointspread. In the other AFC West divisional game, the Chargers are double-digit favorites and the yardage variance in that came is 134 ypg. These are two different dynamics obviously but the point is made. This relatively similar yardage comparison also puts the Broncos into a fantastic league-wide situation that has been profitable for 27 years. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after a game where they won the yardage battle by 150 or more yards in a game involving two teams that are both between +0.4 and -0.4 in yppl average. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just under a field goal. 8* Denver Broncos
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12-05-10 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions +5.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 17 m | Show |
Gamblers have short-term memories and this game is a prime example of that. The Bears are coming off a huge home win last week over the Eagles to make it four straight wins and suddenly, everyone is taking up Chicago. And that of course means the public will be all over the Bears after seeing the results from both sides last week. as of Friday morning, over 80 percent of the action is coming in on the Bears and the line keeps going up. I
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12-02-10 | Houston Texans v. Philadelphia Eagles -8 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
This number opened at -7.5 and is up to -9 in a lot of places but do not read too much into that as a lot of books quickly push up their line to -9 for teaser protection. Taking the Eagles -7.5 or -9 is really not a huge difference or vice versa by taking Houston. Philadelphia is coming off a loss in Chicago last week as the Bears defense did a really good job in shutting down the Eagles offense until the fourth quarter when the game was pretty much out of reach. Philadelphia will not have to worry about that this week. Houston held the Titans to 162 total yards last week but we can throw that one right out the door. Tennessee started Rusty Smith at quarterback and had the Titans been able to use either of their first two quarterbacks, things would have been different. The Texans defense is atrocious as they allowed 29 points or more in six straight games leading up to that. Five of those teams are currently ranked in the top 11 in the NFL in total offense and four are ranked sixth or higher. The scary part is the Eagles are ranked second. Houston is back in the playoff picture with that win last week as it is now just a game out of first place in the AFC South. Stopping their losing streak last week was huge for the Texans but if the real Tennessee team showed up, who know what would have happened. I firmly believe Houston is not any better off following that win as it did not give it a good judgment of how they are playing. And up to that point, they were not playing good as they continued to fins ways to lose. The Texans offense is a solid unit there is no denying that. They are ranked seventh in the NFL in total offense but they have played their share of poor defenses. Seven of their 11 games have come against teams ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in total defense and they have played a top ten defense only three times. Houston averaged only 309.3 ypg in those three games while averaging 438.4 ypg in its other eight games. It is safe to say the Texans struggle against the top units and the Eagles come in ranked 10th in the NFL. While there is a lot at stake for the Texans, there is just as much at stake for the Eagles which are back to being tied with the Giants at the top of the NFC East. The last thing Philadelphia wants is to be down a game heading into back-to-back road games against the Cowboys and Giants. That coupled with the loss last week will have the Eagles fully focused here. The Thursday night home team is a big edge for the Eagles as well as this is a tough place for opponents anyway but adding on the short week makes it tougher. In the second half of the season, the Eagles are a perfect 11-0 ATS against teams that allow 235 or more passing ypg. Granted most of that was with Donovan McNabb but Michael Vick is showing he is pretty capable of throwing the football. Meanwhile Houston is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games when facing teams that are coming off a road loss both straight up and against the number. Also, the Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a road loss where both teams tallied at least 24 points. 9* Philadelphia Eagles
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11-29-10 | San Francisco 49ers -1 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This certainly isn
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11-28-10 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | 36-14 | Win | 100 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
Don
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11-28-10 | St Louis Rams +4 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 47 h 34 m | Show |
This number has dropped as expected and the best advice would be to get this in as soon as possible to get over a field goal as this could very easily go down to three points by gametime. The Rams lost a tough one last week at home against the Falcons and they were actually more into the game than the final score showed. An interception by Sam Bradford at the two-yard line cost St. Louis a score which could have pulled it to within two points. Still, the Rams are just a game out in the NFC West and can easily take this one. The Broncos, after a huge win over the Chiefs, went back to their old ways and were hammered by the Chargers on Monday night. That dropped Denver to 3-7 on the season and three games back in the division, all but ending any sort of playoff possibility. The game against San Diego was a big one and after going up 7-0 early, the Broncos got the wind taken out of them the remainder of the game which is going to cause a huge letdown here, especially with a losing team from the NFC making a trip. St. Louis has struggled on the road this season, going 0-4, but that record could easily be reversed as three of those losses came by one, two and three points so the Rams have been very competitive. They are just 2-18 away from home the last two plus seasons but a lot of that can be discarded as this team is so much different than past editions so we cannot worry about those recent road woes. Denver is just 2-3 at home this season, the only team in the division with a losing home record. The defense is the big difference for the Rams and has a big edge here as they are tied for fifth in the NFL with 28 sacks. That is a big problem for Denver as it is 26th in sacks allowed, giving up 26 on the year. The Rams' secondary did a good job of limiting Atlanta to just one pass of over 20 yards so getting pressure on Kyle Orton will duplicate that. On the other side, the Rams have not gotten Steven Jackson involved too much the last two week but they will here against the second worst rushing defense in the NFL. The Broncos have been horrible in this role as they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as *a home favorite and 1-9 ATS as any sort of favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points so getting anything over a field goal is big. Denver is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a losing record while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games off a road loss. Teams getting blown out on Monday night do not have a good track record the following game and with the Broncos season all but done, it makes it especially worse here. 10* St. Louis Rams
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11-28-10 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. NY Giants -7 | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a great bounceback spot for the Giants. New York has dropped two straight games, and in pretty ugly fashion, after putting together a five-game winning streak. Both were divisional losses, which hurts even more so it is imperative for them to get back in the win column here. The offense, namely the wide receivers, are extremely banged up which is a cause for concern but they get to face one of the worst passing defenses in the league this week to help offset that. Jacksonville is sitting tied for first place in the AFC South at 6-4 but looking at all of the teams in the NFL that are above .500, the Jaguars are the worst of the bunch. They could very well be 4-6 right now as the last two wins came in the final seconds thanks to huge fluke plays. The win prior to that came against the Cowboys who have had their problems all season long. So while its a three-game winning streak, it is a very flawed streak in my opinion and one that cannot be taken too seriously. While the Giants offense remains the question, the defense will be the difference here. New York is second in the NFL in total defense so despite a recent couple efforts, it is still playing extremely well. The Giants have recorded 27 sacks, eighth best in the NFL while the Jaguars' offensive line is inconsistent when it comes to protecting the pocket. They have had two games where they did not give up a single sack, while they have also given up as many as seven sacks in one game. As mentioned, the Jacksonville passing defense is not good and it is giving up more than its share of explosive plays through the air as they are ranked dead last in the NFL, yielding 8.35 ypa this year. Expect the Giants to take some shots downfield even with a depleted receiving corps as getting open will not be a problem. The rushing defense has been adequate as it is a middle of the pack unit but the Giants will exploit that as they are fifth in the NFL in rushing average and ypc average. The Giants fall into a great contrarian situation that has been potent for years. Play against road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins, playing a winning team with a winning percentage of .600 or less. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. Jacksonville is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 8* New York Giants
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11-28-10 | Carolina Panthers +10 v. Cleveland Browns | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
Cleveland has been scoring a decent amount of points lately but that was with Colt McCoy running the offense as the rookie was really starting to come into his own. Unfortunately for the Browns, he is out with an ankle sprain with means that Jake Delhomme will be making his first start since opening week and that is no good for an offense. Cleveland has excelled at running the ball with Peyton Hillis and it is likely it will go that route here but it is not a huge edge. Carolina has the worst offense in the NFL as it has scored a league-low 117 points, averaging just 11.7 ppg. The Panthers problems start at quarterback as they have gone through four this season due to ineffectiveness and injuries on top of that. They get Jimmy Clausen back this week which is big for the offense as he is the best option right now. DeAngelo Williams is out for the season and Jonathan Stewart is banged up as well but Stewart should be good to go this week. The Browns defense is 23rd in the NFL in total defense and it is a mix of both running and passing units. The rushing defense was playing very well but Cleveland has allowed 317 yards rushing over the last two games as well as an average of 4.34 ypc. If Stewart can stay healthy, the Panthers have an excellent chance of moving the ball on the ground and that in turn is going to help Clausen out. A successful running game can also keep the Browns from pressuring too much as Carolina has allowed 30 sacks, fourth most in the NFL. On the other side, the Panthers have not done a great job of defending the run this year and will need to bring extra defenders up into the box in an attempt to limit the running lanes available to Hillis. That should be fine as they will force Delhomme to beat them and he has shown the inability to do that over the last few years. While the offense has been scoring more points, the Browns are averaging only 19.2 ppg on the season and being favored by double-digits with that low output in unjustified. Carolina falls into numerous league-wide contrarian situations with this one being one of the strongest. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 14 or fewer ppg on offense after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games, going up against a team allowing between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 56-24 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. The average line in those 80 games was just under a touchdown so with this double-digit number this week, we are getting added value as well. 9* Carolina Panthers
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11-28-10 | Green Bay Packers +2 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 19 m | Show |
Atlanta looks to be in a great spot here. It has won four straight and eight of nine which means a lot of momentum coming home against another elite NFC team. The Falcons are 5-0 at home this season and with Matt Ryan starting, they are 18-1 in the 19 games he has been under center which is pretty impressive to say the least. This year however, the competition has been average with Baltimore and Tampa Bay being the only games against winning teams and both of those were decided in the final minutes. Green Bay has been just as hot as it has won four straight games, the last two coming in convincing fashion. The Packers three losses this season have all been by three points, two coming in overtime, so their record could be even better. They have been an underdog only once this season, at the Jets, and they have been a great team as an underdog over the last couple seasons, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of a field goal or less. The Packers explosive offense has been on display the last couple weeks after getting stymied against the Jets. That high-powered offense should keep the momentum going here as the Falcons weaknesses fall right into the strength of the Packers. Green Bay
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11-25-10 | Cincinnati Bengals +9 v. NY Jets | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 37 m | Show | |
The Bengals came into the season as a sleeper team to make a run at the Super Bowl and after starting the season 2-1, they have dropped seven straight games. Six of those losses came by a possession or fewer while the one against Buffalo this past weekend was the worst of all as they blew a 28-7 lead and were outscored 42-3 the rest of the way. Playing any other game at any other time following that would warrant a play against or at the very least a pass, but this situation is different. The Jets last minute heroics continued against this past weekend as they defeated Houston in the final seconds, their fourth such win in the past five games. This time it was a 42-yard pass completion with 24 seconds remaining that set up the game winning 6-yard touchdown pass with 10 seconds remaining. The Jets are now 8-2 and they are a fortunate 8-2 on top of that. That win coupled with a game at New England next week puts the Jets in a tough spot here. The Bengals season is done so right now it is about playing spoiler and what better team to do it against than the one that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. Head coach Marvin Lewis is likely gone after the season is done as he did not sign a contract extension when it was put forth. The big question is whether or not the Cincinnati players have given up. This is where I feel the situation will bring out the best in this team. If it was a game on Sunday, probably not, but in primetime, the Bengals will continue to play. Do the Jets deserve to be favored by this many points? I definitely do not think so as this team is winning but it is far from dominating. The only big win from start to finish came against the Bills as every other win was not decided until the final minutes, or seconds in some cases. An eight-point win over Miami, a 14-point win over New England and a nine-point win over Minnesota were all still wide open until late in the game when the Jets were fortunate to tack on late scores. The matchups will favor the Jets but only slightly. The Bengals passing offense is eighth in the NFL so they are still a very potent unit and can take advantage of a weak Jets passing defense. New York is only 16th against the pass after finishing first a season ago so they have definitely stumbled. On the other side, the Bengals secondary is a mess with injuries so the Jets will be able to move the ball as well. However, when is said and done, it is pretty evenly matched on both sides. The losing streak of the Bengals is playing a big part in this line and because of that, the value is tremendous and sets up a great contrarian situation. Play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. Not only is it successful but it has been successful for 27 years in the league so going against the grain is certainly the way to get it done. 9* Cincinnati Bengals
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11-25-10 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 70 h 37 m | Show | |
We played against the Saints this past Sunday and Seattle was the right side in that game as the Seahawks were only outgained by 70 total yards and the reason the final score was not close was because they had to settle for two 20-yard field goals. Unfortunately that does not help with our line here as a closer final may have given us a shorter number but it will not matter. The Saints are playing much better after a slow start as they have won three straight games after a 4-3 start. The Cowboys have won two straight games under interim head coach Jason Garrett but this is where it comes to an end. Against the Giants, it was the Cowboys first game with the new coach and they definitely came out to play against their divisional rivals. However, they outgained the Giants by only 53 total yards and this past week against the Lions, Detroit actually outgained the Cowboys 338-265. Jon Kitna has filled in admirably but I will take Drew Brees over him any day of the week. The Saints are starting to gain some momentum and while the defense came up big against Seattle with big third down stops, the offense looks like it is fully back to form. Brees led the Saints to a season-high 494 total yards, topping the 475 yards they had in a Week Six win over the Buccaneers and they scored 34 points for a second straight game. The Cowboys defense will have its hands full. Dallas is ranked 22nd in the NFL in total defense and 21st in passing defense, not exactly the numbers needed to halt the offense. Dallas is always a tough team to face on Thanksgiving Day, just the opposite of the Lions. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four turkey tilts however there is a major difference between then and now. In all four of those games, Dallas was playing inferior competition as it was favored by at least a touchdown in all four games and by double-digits in three of those. Now they are actually underdogs and that is a huge difference and the situation is a tough one. The Saints also have a little revenge to take care of. Remember last season when New Orleans started the season 13-0 and a perfect season was looking very possible. Dallas came to town in Week 15, grabbed a 24-3 lead and then held on to hand the Saints their first loss of the season. Saints players are saying they aren
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11-25-10 | New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions +7 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 47 m | Show |
This couldn
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11-21-10 | Atlanta Falcons v. St Louis Rams +3 | 34-17 | Loss | -100 | 45 h 34 m | Show | |
The Falcons are considered by some to be the best teams in the NFC right now. They do in fact have the best record at 7-2 but I do not consider them close to the best team. Atlanta is definitely an above average team but until it learns to win other than at home, I cannot put them too high in my opinion despite going against my power rankings which are based on pure numbers. This is the first road game for the Falcons since October 17th as they have the schedule break of playing three straight home games. The Rams are coming off yet another tough loss. As stupid as it may sound but the Rams are a few plays here and there from being 8-1 this season. Yes that is farfetched to say but when four losses have come by four points or fewer including three that were decided in the final minute or in overtime, there may be a case behind that. The Rams are 4-5 on the season and are just a game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West so a win here could mean first place as Seattle is playing at New Orleans. It has been a remarkable job what head coach Steve Spagnuolo has done with this defense. The defense was ranked 28th and 29th overall the last two seasons and this year, the unit is 11th in the NFL in total defense and sixth in scoring defense. St. Louis has steadily improved its run defense over the past two years, ranking sixth this season, and gap control is a major reason. The players up front are starting to understand the need to maintain gap responsibility and to trust their teammates to do their job. On offense, the Rams have been very efficient with the ball and that comes down to Sam Bradford. Bradford has done an excellent job of protecting the football as he has no interceptions in his last four games. He has had some bad luck with injuries to his receivers but he has still found a way to keep the offense moving. On Sunday he squares off against a very suspect passing defense as the Falcons are 23rd in yards and 27th in ypa. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.3 percent of their passes. The home team is 8-1 in Rams games and 7-2 in Falcons games for a combined record of 15-3 this season where the host has win. Yet the road team is favored in this contest. And to no surprise, the public is all over the Falcons in this game yet the line has yet to rise. That no doubt tells us that the Rams are the correct side in this one. Five of the Falcons seven wins have come by a possession or less and four of those came at home where they are supposedly unstoppable. I am a fan of the Falcons at home but the road is a different story. Atlanta was ion a similar situation last season where it played three straight games at home and then went on the road where it actually won outright against the Jets. The difference however is that the Falcons had lost their previous two at home before heading to New York so that actually is a big difference. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss while the Falcons are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games following consecutive wins and playing a team off a loss. 8* St. Louis Rams
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11-21-10 | Seattle Seahawks +11.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 19-34 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 36 m | Show |
This line is simply too high. The Saints have had a week off and are getting healthier but that is no reason to make them huge home favorites, especially when they couldn
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11-21-10 | Arizona Cardinals +9 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 13-31 | Loss | -120 | 42 h 30 m | Show | |
Arizona has gone from Super Bowl team to one of the worst teams in the league in just two seasons. The Cardinals have been involved in some close games as well as some blowouts this season but I know one thing is for sure and that is the fact that they do not deserve to be big underdogs like this. Against good teams, sure. Against a team like Kansas City, not a chance. Arizona has been an underdog by more than a touchdown only once and that was in San Diego which was deserved. The Chiefs flew out of the gates with a 3-0 record and all of a sudden were the surprise team in the NFL. Since then, they have gone 2-4 and after starting the season being underdog in their first five games, they are now favorites for the fifth straight game. Of course they should be favored at home over a team that is 3-6 but not by this amount. This is a big game for Kansas City to get back on the winning side of things but this is no doubt a tough spot with a game at Seattle next and then Denver and San Diego to follow. The biggest problem for the Cardinals has been the play at quarterback. Derek Anderson has a big arm and isn't bashful about pulling the trigger, but his accuracy is very hit or miss and he consistently makes suspect decisions. He did throw for 322 yards last week and the Chiefs' pass defense is rapidly becoming a weakness. Larry Fitzgerald is one of the few bright spots in Arizona's offense this year and remains extremely potent. This is where the Cardinals need to produce. Better news for the offense is that running back Beanie Well will return after missing last week with a knee injury. The Chiefs defense is okay against the run but it is nothing special so Arizona can use the running game to give more outs for Anderson. On the other side, the Chiefs want to get their running game back on track after consecutive road losses in which they only rushed for 104 and 51 yards. They have ran the ball great at home but the Cardinals rushing defense has allowed only 114.7 ypg over the last three games. There is also a bit of a coaching outlet for us. Todd Haley was pissed that the Broncos continued to rub it in last week by taking shots downfield despite possessing a large lead. Haley was the Cardinals' offensive coordinator under Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt before becoming the Chiefs coach two years ago so there will be no chance of that if it even comes down to that. Arizona has dropped three straight games and it knows this is a good opportunity to snap that against a team that is struggling as well. We have two situations favoring the Cardinals. Play against teams that are coming off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite, with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1983. Also, play on road teams with an offense that is averaging 285 or fewer total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1983. Both systems go back a long way and both make perfect sense in this contrarian world of the NFL. 9* Arizona Cardinals
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11-21-10 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Tennessee Titans | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 41 h 30 m | Show | |
Everyone witnessed the Redskins getting absolutely embarrassed on Monday night against their division rivals as they fell behind 28-0 after one quarter and allowed 59 points before it was all said and done. While Washington is stinging from that loss, we benefit from it this week in two big ways. First off, we get a lot of additional line value in this number. If this game were played prior to the Eagles game, there is no way Washington would be getting a touchdown. Second, the Redskins will be a focused team this week and will do everything to restore some of that pride. This is a big one as teams usually are not as bad as they looked the previous week and vise versa. While the Redskins will be looking to bounceback, the Titans are in the same boat but it isn
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11-21-10 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 31 m | Show |
We were on the Vikings last week as Brett Favre pulled off another one of his vanishing acts, just a week after his record game against the Cardinals. Now the season is really on the line, after the Bears win on Thursday, Minnesota now finds itself three and a half games back in the division. The problem has been the play on the road where the Vikings are 0-5. They are 3-1 at home this season and 13-1 in their last 14 home games and are now getting points at home for the first time since the start of the 2008 season. Green Bay has won three straight games and needs a win to keep pace with the Bears but this is not going to be a sure thing as the linesmakers may be telling us. The Packers are coming off a bye week which in my opinion, really hurts them. That three-game winning streak was the biggest all season and instead of taking time off, they would have been best to keep the thing going and keep the momentum rolling. A bye week is the worse rally killer there is in football. The Vikings are limiting opponents to 3.77 yards per carry, seventh-best in the league, and it would seriously hamper their ability to rush the passer if they had to pack the box with extra defenders to stop the run. The Packers are 19th in the league in rushing offense and managed only 84 yards on 23 carries (3.7 ypc) in the first meeting. The problem was the Vikings offense and the mistakes that were made. Look for Adrian Peterson, who was pretty non-existent last week, to be productive like he was in the first meeting. The Vikings haven't exactly lit it up this year on third down, converting 38 percent of their chances. It is extremely difficult to sustain drives when you can't depend on your offense to convert on those situations. While the Packers defense is solid, their third down defense is horrible as they are allowing a 40.7 percent third down conversion rate which is 23rd in the league. That is definitely surprising coming from a team that can pressure the quarterback. The Vikings converted 6 of 14 in the first meeting. The Packers offense is a different unit on the road than they are at home. Green bay is fourth in the NFL with 31 ppg ob average in its home games but on the road, it is averaging only 16.5 ppg. The scoring output is usually less in road games for most teams but for the Packers, it is huge. They have the second biggest home/road scoring differential in the league, trailing only Detroit. Minnesota meanwhile has the fourth biggest differential on defense as it allowed eight fewer ppg at home than on the road. The Vikings have two great situations in their favor. Play on underdogs or pickems (that are coming off a road loss with a winning percentage between 250 and .400 playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, play against road favorites that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Minnesota Vikings
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11-18-10 | Chicago Bears v. Miami Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 16-0 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
We went against the Bears last week and while we had to rip up the ticket, it was more of a case of the Vikings losing it than the Bears winning it. Chicago is a vastly overrated 6-3 team and this is a great spot to fade again. Of those six wins, the Bears were outgained in three of those and the three games they won the yardage battle came against teams with a combined record of 6-21. Chicago is 3-1 on the road which may seem solid until you consider those wins were against teams a combined 4-23. Miami finally picked up its first home win of the season last week against the Titans. It was a long time coming as it dropped its first three in Miami but deserved better as three of those four games resulted in total yardage advantages. The news this week is the quarterback situation as Chad squared went down last week with Pennington out for the season and Henne still up in the air. Tyler Thigpen will likely get the start and that is not all that bad as he has had success in the past and his mobility is a big asset. This is not an easy spot for the Bears as they are playing on a short week as well and have the travel involved. They have only a couple of practices before boarding a flight Wednesday while the Dolphins have another full day for a workout and meetings and that can be pretty important when it comes to teams of this caliber. Road teams are a respectable 14-17 in these Thursday games since the NFL Network started producing them which is decent but the disadvantages outweigh everything else. The biggest disadvantage that the Bears have in this game is in the trenches as Miami
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11-15-10 | Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 59-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
As was the case last week, I would normally take a hard look at the home underdog in this spot but based on matchups, the Redskins just cannot be trusted. Washington is 4-4 on the season and it is a very surprising 4-4. The Redskins have been outgained in every game this season and that is something that cannot be overlooked. On average Washington is getting outgained by 67.7 ypg which is a large variance and shows that the Redskins have been more
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11-14-10 | New England Patriots +5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 39-26 | Win | 100 | 94 h 11 m | Show |
I played against the Patriots last Sunday and because of the outright loss, we are getting excellent value in this number. The short-term memory of gamblers will remember the Browns defeating New England last week and not the five-game winning streak it had prior to that. The Patriots and Steelers are both right at the top of the AFC Power Ratings and if because of that, this spread should be sitting at a field goal. Getting the Patriots off a bad loss only makes this play stronger. The Steelers rebounded from that loss in New Orleans with a Monday night win last week against the Bengals. The good news is that Pittsburgh is home for the first time in a month but the bad news is that this is the third monster game in a row for this team and I don
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11-14-10 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16-31 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 41 m | Show | |
Why would we be betting on the Panthers, argued by some as the worst team in football? Because when value presents itself like this, we have to take advantage of it along with the situation that it involves. Carolina is coming off another poor outing against New Orleans which was no surprise as we cashed a ticket on the Saints mostly based on the prior meeting that was a close game coupled with the fact that New Orleans was going into a bye week. Now Carolina is on a more even playing field this week. Tampa Bay is coming off one of its biggest games in a long time and unfortunate for the Buccaneers, things did not go its way. The Buccaneers were playing for first place in the NFC South and they played a good enough game to keep it close, as in cover, but failed to get the win. This presents a huge letdown spot for Tampa Bay which cannot possibly get up for the 1-7 Panthers. Despite this being the only home game in a five-game span, the Buccaneers find themselves in unfamiliar territory. This territory is mainly being a rather large favorite. Tampa Bay has been favored twice this season but both games were by a field goal or less and it went 1-1 ATS. The Buccaneers have not been favored by more than a field goal since the end of the 2008 season and quite honestly, I do not think it deserves it here. The Buccaneers may be 5-3 but they are getting outgained by 44.3 ypg. Meanwhile, the Panthers are getting outgained by 70.6 ppg. Does that translate into a touchdown point spread? Nope. You can look at the first meeting and see that Tampa Bay defeated the Panthers 20-7 with the 13-point margin of victory being the largest of the season. In that game, Carolina actually outgained the Buccaneers but Tampa Bay took advantage of a +3 turnover margin. In its other four wins, Tampa Bay
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11-14-10 | Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Chicago Bears | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 41 m | Show | |
Some big come-from-behind wins provide letdowns while others provide momentum going forward and for possibly a long time. I feel the latter is the case with the Vikings in this spot as they now have new life with a 3-5 record. 3-5 is nothing to be proud of but it just means another must win game is on the table. And to top it off, we have a team that is two games under .500 favored on the road against a team that is two games over .500. That does not make a lot of sense and we will bite on this advantageous number. The Bears started the season with a 3-0 record but have gone 2-3 since then and the whole body of work needs to be examined closer. The last two wins have come against Buffalo and Carolina who are a combined 1-15 while another win came against the 1-7 Cowboys. The first victory of the season was a controversial win against Detroit as it should have lost while the fifth victory was against the Packers thanks to Green Bay giving it away. Trust me, when it comes to Brett Favre I am at the front of the line to turn off whatever is being said about him as I as sick as the next guy hearing about this soap opera. But last week he threw for his most ever yards in a game and we may be seeing the turning point. The release of Randy Moss looks like it was the smart move right now as the Vikings, after a slow start against the Cardinals, came back and fought as a team and eventually won as a team in overtime which saves their season. On the season, the Bears have been outgained by an average of 20.1 ypg which isn
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11-14-10 | Houston Texans +1.5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 42 m | Show |
This is a great spot for the Texans. Houston has lost two games in a row and three of its last four but it is still just a game out of first place in the AFC South. The best part is that it has four divisional games remaining and none of those are against the Colts. Speaking of the Colts, one of these two recent losses came against Indianapolis while the other was against the Chargers last week in a game Houston could have won. Had the Texans won that game, they would not be underdogs this Sunday. The Jaguars are coming off their bye week which followed a win at Dallas. Confidence from that victory was halted because of the week off but let
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11-11-10 | Baltimore Ravens v. Atlanta Falcons -1 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
I was surprised with this opening number as both teams are ranked in the top five of the league making them pretty equal. When that is the case, it usually results in a pickem game with three points added to the home team which would make the Falcons a field goal favorite here but that is not the case and instead we are getting incredible value with the home team. Atlanta is 4-0 at home this season and going back to 2008, the Falcons are 17-1 in the 18 home games Matt Ryan has started. This is not an easy spot for the Ravens as they are playing on a short week as well and have the travel involved. They have only a couple of practices before boarding a flight Wednesday while the Falcons have another full day for a workout and meetings and that can be pretty important when it comes to teams of this caliber. Road teams are a respectable 14-16 in these Thursday games since the NFL Network started producing them which is solid but there are disadvantages in this case. While Matt Ryan has shown to be the focal point of the offense, the Falcons will have to run the ball successful to get the win and I don
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11-08-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 59 h 8 m | Show |
It comes as no surprise that the Steelers are the favorite here and that the public is going to ride them. Normally I would take a hard look at the home underdog in this spot but Cincinnati is playing horrible right now as it has lost four consecutive games, both straight up and against the number. The thing is that all of those games could have gone the other way but the Bengals founds ways to lose. That is not a good ingredient for success in this league. Playing a divisional road favorite on Monday night is something that is not recommended often, but it is here. The Steelers are coming off a loss Sunday night at New Orleans to drop to 5-2 in the AFC North. That was a tough loss to take as Pittsburgh had plenty of opportunities but turnovers ended up being the ultimate difference. I don
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11-07-10 | Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 44 h 30 m | Show | |
It is hard to label the Colts as a sleeper this week, but any team can be classified as that if they are getting points and it is close to impossible to pass up on Indianapolis when it is an underdog. This is the first instance of it this season and just the second time since the start of last season, not including the final game when starters were rested at Buffalo. The Colts are coming off a big win Monday against Houston, their first divisional win of the season, but they cannot have a letdown from that. Philadelphia is coming off a bye and expects to have Michael Vick back in at quarterback this week. This is a very big game for the Eagles as they need to keep pace in the NFC East with the Giants but I am not sold on this team, especially being a favorite this week. Three of their wins have come against Detroit, Jacksonville and San Francisco, none of which are over .500 and the fourth came against Atlanta but the Falcons are notorious for poor play on the road. The Eagles are ninth in the NFL in rushing offense with 129.3 ypg but they are third in average with 4.9 ypc. This is due to Vick picking up big yards with his scrambling ability. The Colts have struggles against the run this season as they have been outgained on the ground in four of seven games. The good news is that they have won the last two games that have occurred and in this spot, Vick does not concern me. Indianapolis is soft up the middle and fast on the outside which negates what Vick can do. Opposing quarterbacks have put up very nice numbers against the Eagles and that is certainly not a good sign for Philadelphia with Peyton Manning coming to town. Manning is second in quarterback rating behind Vince Young which actually makes no sense to me when comparing the two but Manning is completing 65.9 percent of his passes while throwing 15 touchdowns and only two picks. Mike Hart is turning into a great weapon in the running game as he is a finisher. A lot of the talk leading up to this game is the fact that Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 11-0 in his 11 years in Philadelphia coming off a bye. That is no doubt impressive on paper but I don
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11-07-10 | New Orleans Saints -6.5 v. Carolina Panthers | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
New Orleans picked up a huge home win last week against the Steelers and hopefully that gains some momentum. The last time they had a big win, which was against Tampa Bay, they laid an egg in the next game at home against the Browns. That actually helps us here as New Orleans will use that as a motivator and stay focused. Also, the Saints won against Carolina at home by only two points a month ago so there is no chance they will be overlooking the Panthers with a bye coming up. More on the bye week situation later. Carolina won two weeks ago against San Francisco but stumbled again last week on the road at St. Louis. The Panthers remain the worst team in football according to most power rankings and for good reason. They have the worst offense in the NFL, averaging a mere 251.4 ypg and 12.1 ppg. The defense has been able to keep some of the games close but I still do not think it is good enough to keep the Saints offense in check a second straight time. This is where matchup problems will come into play for the Panthers. In the first meeting, Drew Brees threw for 275 yards but the offense was killed by fumbles, one at the goal line, and missed opportunities in the redzone. As long as the offense is more efficient, the results will be better and more scoring will take place. Brees was sacked twice which was an anomaly because the Panthers have registered only 11 sacks on the season, which is 25th in the NFL. The Carolina offense is going to be in worse shape this weekend as DeAngelo Williams is most likely out for a second straight week. Jonathan Stewart was horrible as his replacement and on the season, the rushing offense is averaging only 85.6 ypg on 3.3 ypc. This is the same team that average 40 ypg and 1.1 ypc more last season so it is a huge dropoff. The Saints defense is quietly having another solid season as they are third in the BFL in total defense, allowing just 287.3 ypg. And they are getting healthier. There is no question that this is a very public play and after this number held at -6.5 all week, we are starting to see movement and will likely see it heading into gametime. Laying over a touchdown on the road is considered suicide in this league but I feel there is still line value in this number. In their last road game, the Saints were -5.5-point favorites over Tampa Bay and they rolled and now they are not being asked to lay that much more which I feel is a huge line error. As mentioned, New Orleans has a bye next week and that is a very favorable situation for this week. Play on favorites of 6.5 to 15 points that have a bye the following week. This simple yet solid situation is 27-10 ATS (73 percent) since 2002 with the average score differential being +17.1 ppg. The philosophy is simple in that elite teams want to go into their week off on a high note and that usually means a convincing win. I expect a very focused and solid effort from the Saints. 9* New Orleans Saints
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11-07-10 | New England Patriots v. Cleveland Browns +5.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
I think this is a tremendous spot for the Browns and a tough one for the Patriots. The public is all over the Patriots here but there was a sharp line move late week that dropped the number down from 5.5 to 4.5 and even down to 4. That reverse movement sets this one up perfectly. Cleveland is coming off a bye week which may have hurt momentum from its big won in New Orleans two weeks ago but it did give the Browns extra time to get ready for the Patriots. New England has won five straight games and they sit at the top of many power rankings and for good reason. The Patriots seem to have that swagger back but if ever there was a spot for them to take a break, this is it. New England is coming off a revenge win over the Ravens, a west coast win over the Chargers and last week, a hard fought win against the Vikings in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. And next week, New England travels to Pittsburgh. Letdown, sandwich, lookahead, you name it. Cleveland
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11-07-10 | NY Jets -4 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 52 m | Show |
Since 2000, excluding the final game of the season, there have been 69 shutouts in the NFL. Teams have gone 30-39 in their next game and while that may not seem very good, you have to look at it this way. The majority of teams that get shutout are bad to begin with so 30 wins is pretty good. How about good teams that were shutout? Teams that were favored in their next game went 16-10 and of those only four were road favorites. Those four teams went 3-1 SU and ATS with the only loss coming back in 2000. I started with that showing that we are in a rare spot laying points on the road with a team that is coming off a shutout. I am not a fan of laying road chalk but there are certain instances when it comes into play and this is one of those. The public is all over this, which I am not a fan of either but at least the line is moving the way it is supposed to as any reverse movement would make it tough to put down. This is one you can
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11-01-10 | Houston Texans +6 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a rematch of the opening day showdown between the Colts and Texans and this is a chance for Houston to take over the reigns of the AFC South. The Colts have not been swept by a divisional opponent since 2002 which is pretty remarkable but this is team that is vulnerable. They have outgained all but one opponent this season but they are not making things easy on themselves as the last three games have all come down to the final minutes. A bye week may have helped but just how much? Houston is playing some inconsistent football similar to Indianapolis, especially on the defensive side of the ball. It is no secret that the Texans are ranked last in the NFL in total defense and passing defense and that can be a pretty scary thought playing against the Colts and Peyton Manning. The line movement in this game is on our side as the public is on the Colts at close to 60 percent as of Monday morning yet the line has gone down from an opening of -6. That reverse move is a big take sign. Houston lost linebacker and captain DeMeco Ryans in its last game against Kansas City and that is a huge blow to the stop unit. The Colts do not have their usual advantage however as they have a banged up offense. Tight end Dallas Clark is gone for the season while wide receiver Austin Collie and running back Joseph Addai and highly doubtful for tonight. The good news is that Anthony Gonzalez is back but still not at full speed and Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are also part of the injury list. Houston's defense called a players-only meeting last week, a move usually reserved for backs-against-the-wall situations.
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10-31-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. New Orleans Saints +1 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 55 m | Show |
New Orleans is certainly going through its post Super Bowl hangover stage. The Saints are 4-3 on the season and those three losses are the same amount that they had all of last season so what gives? For starters, turnovers are absolutely killing them right now and a lack of focus is not far behind. The last four games New Orleans has played Carolina, Arizona, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, not exactly the caliber of teams that is going to get a team electrified. Tonight, it will be different. The Steelers have gotten off to a great start as they are 5-1 with the only loss coming against Baltimore on a last minute touchdown. They survived with Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines and have won in the two games he has been back but I am not totally convinced just yet. Pittsburgh should have lost last week and was fortunate to defeat the Falcons in overtime in the opener. If those go the other way, the Steelers are 3-3 right now and there is no way this game would be close to a pickem. Looking at the statistics, we see that the Steelers have not come close to dominating the opposition. They are outgaining opponents by a mere 1.4 ypg and they have yet to outgain a foe by more than 84 total yards. On the other side, the Saints have outgained each of their last four opponents by 132 or more yards and are +83.5 ypg in yardage differential on the season. The reason the records are what they are is that Pittsburgh is +8 in turnovers while the Saints are -5. While turnovers usually are contagious, we cannot continue to bank on them to remain on their current trend. The Saints' defense has taken the ball away just twice in the past five games and for the season, they are tied for 22nd in the NFL with nine takeaways. Last season at this time, the Saints had forced 21 turnovers and had returned six for touchdowns. It is no wonder there is a three-game difference from then until now. This year though, we should start seeing it even out. Even though the takeaways are down, the defense has been playing much better. The Saints' defense ranks third in the league in total defense this season, 22 spots ahead of where they were ranked last season. A lot of it has to do with the offenses they have taken on but let
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10-31-10 | Tennessee Titans v. San Diego Chargers -3.5 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 49 h 8 m | Show | |
When are the Chargers going to start playing like a team that leads the league in both total offense and total defense? We were on San Diego last week and the Chargers were written off after the first half but they played some inspired football in the second half and nearly pulled off the win. They should have at least tied the game but a missed field goal dropped them to 2-5 on the season, creating yet another must win situation this week. While San Diego is stumbling, the Titans are making a charge. Tennessee has won three straight games while scoring 30 or more points in each game. That puts it in a tough situation here as teams coming off scoring outputs like that in three straight games tend to stumble, especially when facing a strong defense like that of the Chargers. The Titans now lead the AFC South by a half-game over Houston and Indianapolis but looking further, this team could be a fraud. During the three-game winning streak, the Titans have been outgained by 113 yards and on the season, they are getting outgained by an average of 26 ypg. That is not exactly domination. The defense is strong but the offense is averaging only 302.1 ypg which is 24th in the NFL yet the scoring offense is ranked second in the league. That makes no sense until you look at how the team is scoring and that is something that has been beneficial thus far but cannot continue. As pointed out last week, losing is losing and there really is no way around it. However, San Diego has been losing a way that is unusual and that is by dominating on both sides of the ball. Two weeks in St. Louis marked the first time this season that the Chargers were outgained and that was only by 13 total yards. They have outgained every other foe by at least 127 total yards and it is near impossible to find a team that is 2-5 yet leads the NFL in both total offense and total defense. The main reason for the complete opposite records of these two teams is turnover margin. According to Titans Online, the Titans have had positive turnover ratios in five of their seven games and won each time they have taken the ball from opponents more than they have given the ball away. The Chargers have had negative turnover ratios in five of their seven games and lost each time they have given the ball to opponents more than they have taken the ball away. It is pretty simple and makes perfect sense. San Diego falls into a solid contrarian situation. Play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 64-29 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. Also, under head coach Jeff Fisher, the titans are 6-15 ATS against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while San Diego is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. 9* San Diego Chargers
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10-31-10 | Buffalo Bills +7.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show | |
We won on Buffalo last week as it nearly pulled off the monumental upset over Baltimore. We had to settle for a cover as the Bills remain winless on the season which is good for us for another week. Buffalo is hungry for a victory as it is now the only team in the league without a victory. That gives us a good line once again as the public is bucking the Bills as no one wants any part of a winless team. Motivation and line value are two huge elements on our side here. Speaking of motivation, how can Kansas City possibly get up for this game? The Chiefs has dropped two straight games after a 3-0 start to the season before bouncing back with a win last week against the Jaguars. That put the Chiefs back on track and now they must try to get motivated yet again with two divisional road games looming. That is a tough task. Kansas City has already tied its highest win total since 2006 but has it turned it around that much to be favored by over a touchdown? I don
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10-31-10 | Washington Redskins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 25-37 | Win | 100 | 46 h 27 m | Show |
How is a 1-5 team favored over a team that is 4-3? That is exactly what the public is thinking and for that reason, it is hammering the Redskins. Despite the difference in records, it is hard to argue that Washington is the better of the two teams here. All four wins have come by six points or fewer and two of the losses have been by a field goal which shows how close it has been to a disaster of a season. Coming off a win on the road last week puts the Redskins in a difficult spot this week. Detroit has more than held its own despite a rough start to the season. The Lions have been hanging around in every game thus far with the exception of the Minnesota game so their 5-1 ATS record comes as no surprise. They are a point away from being undefeated against the number and despite this, the public is backing off. That gives us tremendous line value. On top of that, the Lions opened at -1 and the line has gone up despite the public being in the other side which is a take for the reverse line movement. As mentioned, most of the Redskins games have been close with the exception of a 14-point road loss at St. Louis. However, they have not been the more dominant team in nay of those. Washington has been outgained in all seven of its games and coming away with a winning record despite that shows there has been a big amount of good fortune. On the other side, the Lions have won the yardage battle in half of their games and are actually outscoring their opponents on average. The Lions will be getting quarterback Matt Stafford back this week after missing the last five games with a shoulder injury. While rust is a concern, reports out of practice refute that. Stafford has been sharp and his timing has been spot on according to players and coaches. This is a great sign as the Lions offense, which is ranked 11th in the NFL in scoring, goes up against the 31st ranked defense in the league as Washington is allowing 406 ypg including 292.1 ypg through the air, also 31st in football. The Redskins have allowed a league-high 106 plays of 10-plus yards and Detroit has the caliber of offense that can add to that, especially with Calvin Johnson in the mix. On the other side, Washington has been getting it done because of a +8 turnover margin, the best in the NFC. A big problem this week is the health of quarterback Donovan McNabb as he is battling hamstring and groin injuries. The big plays have been non-existent the last two weeks and his quarterback rating of 76.0 is his lowest since his rookie season. The Lions defense is nothing to write home about but Washington hasn
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10-25-10 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides as the NFC East is shaping up to be a four-team race this season, That is, if the Cowboys can get their act together. They enter this game 1-4 on the season and they are certainly one of the best 1-4 teams we have seen in the league in many years. Obviously losing is no good but Dallas has been dominating opponents and it
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10-24-10 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -2.5 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 13 m | Show | |
Minnesota is coming off a big win at home last week against the Cowboys as it avoided falling to 1-4 on the season. It was far from a good win though and it was one that was pretty much handed to the Vikings which the Cowboys have been doing all season long to the teams they have played. Minnesota was outgained by 126 yards against Dallas and now it hits the road for just the second time since opening week. This whole Brett Favre incident is only making matter worse. Green Bay is now 3-3 on the season after suffering its second straight loss in overtime last week against Miami. The Packers have lost all three of their games by a field goal in the finals second of regulation or in overtime so things could be a lot better right now. The losses are just fine by me as they actually give us enough value in this number to make it a strong play. The Packers were favored by 3.5 points at home last season against the Vikings and are now playing with double-revenge. The Packers defense finished 2nd in the NFL last season and they are no where near that this season as they are currently 15th in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. Injuries have been a been issue but there is good news for this week as linebacker Clay Matthews, linebacker Brandon Chillar and defensive end Ryan Pickett are all expected to return to action. Even more encouraging is that cornerback Al Harris could be back after 11 months off as he has looked great in practice this week. The news isn
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10-24-10 | New England Patriots v. San Diego Chargers -2.5 | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
The Chargers continue to struggle as the slow start is once again hitting San Diego. This is the fourth straight season the Chargers have at least three losses in their first six games but they recover better than any team. After going 9-9 through their first six games in the past three seasons, they have gone 23-7 through their final 10 games in those years. This season they have four losses already but all four have come on the road and they are 20 at home, winning by a combined 79-23. The Patriots are keeping pace with the Jets in the AFC East and they will be looking for a win here to tie New York atop the division. The problem is that this is not a good spot to do it in. New England is coming off a huge overtime win over Baltimore last Sunday and it not only was a big come-from-behind victory but it was one that took a lot out of them. Now they have to pack up and head out west to face a very desperate team that knows it needs to win this week to right the ship. Losing is losing, there really is no way around it. However, San Diego has been losing a way that is unusual and that is by dominating on both sides of the ball. Last week in St. Louis marked the first time this season that the Chargers were outgained and that was only by 13 total yards. They had outgained every other foe by at least 127 total yards and it is near impossible to find a team that is 2-4 yet leads the NFL in both total offense and total defense. Going back, I was unable to locate one. There is a lot of talk about the Chargers offense being banged up and that is definitely the case. Leading receiver Malcom Floyd is highly doubtful with a hamstring injury while tight end Antonio Gates and running back Ryan Matthews remain questionable. There is a good chance the latter two end up playing but it is not overly concerning if they can
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10-24-10 | San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 45 m | Show | |
A great system comes into play here and one that we have used and been successful with because the value is tremendous. The Panthers are 0-5 and posses the worst offense in the NFL which is the main reason that they have been outgained in four of five games. Carolina enters this game off a bye week and as mentioned in another game, home underdogs that have had a week off have been extremely solid propositions in the past. It gives these bad teams a chance to regroup and get their motor running again. This came into play last season when Tampa Bay came off their bye week at 0-7 and faced Green Bay. We used Tampa Bay as in that game and the Buccaneers ended up winning it outright. Another great example is St. Louis doing it two years in a row in 2007 and 2008 when it came out of the bye 0-8 and 0-4 respectively and also covered and won outright. Play on underdogs that are at least 0-4 and coming off a bye week and this situation is 19-2 ATS. San Francisco finally got into the win column last week to move to 1-5 on the season but now it finds itself in a very tough spot. The 49ers are back on the road after a two-game homestand and the road has not been kind. Not only are they 0-3 but the offense has been pathetic as they are averaging 10 ppg and 258.7 ypg and that is not much better than the Panthers offense. San Francisco has just two offensive touchdowns and one of those came with no time left in the Kansas City game. The Carolina defense has played very well this season as the Panthers are 12th in the NFL with 316.8 ypg allowed and their 4.6 yppl is tied for third best in the NFL. They are stopping the run, allowing only 3.8 ypc which is tied for eighth and that is where the 49ers will try and produce but likely won
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10-24-10 | Buffalo Bills +14 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 71 h 47 m | Show |
A great system comes into play here and one that we have used and been successful with because the value is tremendous. The Bills are 0-5 and have been outgained in every game this season so why are we backing them? First, as mentioned, there is a ton of value in this line as the public wants nothing to do with them. Buffalo is coming off a bye week and home underdogs that have had a week off have been extremely solid propositions in the past. It gives these bad teams a chance to regroup and get their motor running again. This came into play last season when Tampa Bay came off their bye week at 0-7 and faced Green Bay. We used Tampa Bay as in that game and the Buccaneers ended up winning it outright. Another great example is St. Louis doing it two years in a row in 2007 and 2008 when it came out of the bye 0-8 and 0-4 respectively and also covered and won outright. Play on underdogs that are at least 0-4 and coming off a bye week and this situation is 19-2 ATS. Looking at this matchup and we see Buffalo not at that much of a disadvantage. Baltimore is coming off a brutal game and loss at New England and while many will see a bounceback here, it is simply not that easy. Asking a team to win by two touchdowns is tough enough but coming off a physical game against the Patriots makes it even tougher. The Ravens do fall into a situation of being a big favorite heading into a bye which is normally favorable but it is negated this week. Buffalo is coming off a poor effort in its last game prior to the bye as it was defeated at home against the Jaguars. It was a game we were on and the Bills came out strong but folded at the end. There have been some changes, most notably the trade of running back Marshawn Lynch. That opens the door for Fred Jackson, who rushed for 73 yards on 12 carries (6.1 ypc) against Jacksonville and the Bills will go with him more seeing that the Ravens are allowing 4.3 ypc, 23rd in the league. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick confirmed that the Bills spent part of their bye week looking at more ways to get Jackson the ball. On the season Jackson is averaging 5.0 ypc and now that he is the main focus, we should expect really good things. Speaking of good things, after his game against Jacksonville, Fitzpatrick moved to fourth best in the NFL with a passer rating of 99.9. The Ravens defense is a lot stronger than that of the Jaguars but Buffalo is moving the right way. The Bills also fall into another great contrarian league-wide situation. Play on road teams with a scoring defense that is allowing 27 or more ppg, after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -2.8 ppg. Buffalo meanwhile is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 35 or more points. 10* Buffalo Bills
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10-17-10 | Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Washington Redskins | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 81 h 46 m | Show | |
The Colts are probably fortunate to come away with a win at home against Kansas City as the Chiefs came in with a lot of energy off their bye and played toe-to-toe for most of the game before Indianapolis pulled away. The Colts are in a four-team logjam in the AFC South as all are sitting at 3-2 and the last thing they need is to head into the bye a game back and sitting at .500 since the winner of Tennessee and Jacksonville Monday night will be in at least a tie for first place. The Redskins did it again and that is with a non-dominating win. Washington took care of Green Bay in overtime to improve to 3-2 and share the lead in the NFC East, another very competitive division. The surprising thing about the Redskins is that they have been outgained in all five games yet have been finding ways to keep things close enough to pull out wins. Winning these types of games is great but eventually that catches up and this is an opponent that won
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10-17-10 | NY Jets v. Denver Broncos +3.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -130 | 77 h 60 m | Show | |
We won with the Jets in Week Three at Miami but we lost with them this past Monday at home against Minnesota no thanks to a pick-six with less than two minutes remaining that killed the Vikings cover. Now the Jets are sent packing for their longest trip of the season so far and on a short week no less. Making matters even worse for New York is that this is a prime letdown spot following an opener against Baltimore, three straight division games and then the Monday night game. It will be tough for the Jets to get up. While New York was winning its fourth straight game, the Broncos were manhandled in Baltimore. I played on Denver thinking the Ravens were in for a letdown following their last second win over the Steelers but instead it was Denver that was in a funk after making its second trip out east in two weeks following a win at Tennessee two weeks back. This is the first home game for the Broncos since losing against the Colts three weeks back so this will be an energized team. The Broncos were outgained by only 69 yards against Baltimore and that was the first time all season that Denver lost the yardage battle. Conversely, the Jets were outgained against Minnesota on Monday which marked the third time they were outgained. In another game, they outgained the Patriots by just 45 yards so the game against the Bills was the only game they have truly dominated this season. And as bad as Buffalo is playing, that isn
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10-17-10 | Oakland Raiders +6.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 40 m | Show | |
I rode the 49ers for three straight weeks beginning in Week Two and we ended up cashing two of those tickets. Four straight losses kept me off and now five straight losses are putting me on the other side especially with this ridiculous number. San Francisco is hurting right now as it is finding ways to lose despite outgaining three of five opponents. There is a lack of chemistry going on and while the players were buying into the coaching staff and systems, those are in severe jeopardy of being lost. Since 2000, there have been 21 teams that have started the season 0-5 through their first five games. Of those, only one came out as a favorite in their sixth game and that actually resulted in a loss. Of those 21 teams, only six won the game outright which is just under 29 percent. The one team that was favored after a 0-5 start was the 2001 Detroit Lions as they were favored by three points at home against the Bengals and lost by four. So you can see how much credit the 49ers are getting and how little credit Oakland is getting. Oakland is coming off a big win last week against the Chargers as it snapped a 13-game losing streak against San Diego. The Raiders were outgained considerably in that game but they remain only -6.6 ypg in yardage differential on the season so there has not been many dominations going against it. If not for a missed chip shot against the Cardinals, the Raiders would be 3-2 right now but I like the fact they are 2-3 as it provides line value as well as added motivation despite being in a divisional sandwich. San Francisco was supposed to win this season with defense and a strong running game. The 49ers are currently ranked 27th in ppg, 21st in passing defense and 18th in rushing defense. Those are not going to get things done. With JaMarcus Russell gone, the Raiders are a different team on offense and the running game is having great success. Darren McFadden is averaging 4.6 ypc and 98.0 ypg in the first four weeks while Michael Bush had 26 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown against San Diego last week. As far as the running game, the 49ers are 30th in rushing offense and 25th yard per carry average. The Raiders are not good against the run however they should not have much problem here by filling the box and daring Alex Smith to beat them. Smith has thrown an NFL-high nine interceptions, which is a huge reason San Francisco is last in the NFL with a -10 turnover differential. He will remain the starter at least one more week but the leash is short and the pressure is on, not a good combo for a quarterback. The 49ers aren't much better at holding onto the ball as they are 28th in the league with 2.4 fumbles per game and the Raiders are better at causing them so that is an area Oakland has an edge even on top of the Smith miscues. The Raiders fall into a solid rushing situation as well. Play against home favorites that are averaging between 3.5 and 4.5 ypc after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game going up against a team allowing more than 4.5 ypc. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 8* Oakland Raiders
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10-17-10 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Houston Texans -4 | Top | 31-35 | Push | 0 | 74 h 10 m | Show |
I had this game circled two weeks ago. My thinking then was that we have the Chiefs coming off a big game at Indianapolis and travelling for a second straight week which makes any game after the Colts a letdown spot, win or lose. We also have the Texans going into a bye week after this game and playing big favorites going into a bye are very favorable. Even though the situation changed slightly which I will get into, it remains a great spot for Houston. I went against the Chiefs last week as a smaller play and they fell short against Indianapolis in a game that was close the majority of the time. The good news for us is that the Chiefs played their hearts out so getting up this week will be a little more difficult. I was very impressed with Kansas City last week keeping the game as close as it did although I think that had just as much to do with the Colts being out of sync as the Chiefs playing well. I
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10-17-10 | New Orleans Saints -3.5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 74 h 3 m | Show |
At this point, who would have thought Tampa Bay would have a better record than New Orleans through the first five weeks of the season? I know I didn
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10-11-10 | Minnesota Vikings +5 v. New York Jets | 20-29 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The Jets are off to a solid 3-1 start to the season but because of that, they are overpriced in this game. The three wins have come against division opponents so sitting on a 3-0 record in the AFC East could give New York a little bit of a sense of a security. The Jets were outgained by Baltimore by 106 total yards and against Miami, they were outgained by 34 yards. In the win over New England, they outgained the Patriots so with the exception of Buffalo, the Jets have been far from dominant. Minnesota enters this game with a 1-2 record and coming off a much needed bye week. The Vikings have been playing better than their record indicates as they were right there against New Orleans in the opener and it feasibly could have gone either way while in the loss against the Dolphins, Minnesota outgained Miami by 138 total yards. The victory over Detroit heading into the bye was huge and unlike what we saw with Dallas yesterday, the Vikings used the time off to actually work on things. Obviously the big story here is the addition of Randy Moss for Minnesota. It will be argued that he knows nothing about the offense and will be taken out of the game by Jets All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis. While that may be the case, his presence alone helps the offense. Brett Favre has always thrived with big-play receivers, which is why he has struggled so far without Sidney Rice, and now he has a big-play guy who can go get it and one that opens up the rest of the offense. That will help the running game as well. The Jets are ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing just 74.8 ypg, but they'll have their hands full trying to stop Adrian Peterson, whose 130.7 ypg are ranked second in the league. The Vikings offensive line has looked better this season in run blocking. On the other side, Minnesota will see a steady diet of the Jets running game which has been very effective thus far and that has let to Mark Sanchez looking like an All-Pro. He is not going to look that way tonight. The Vikings have recorded only two interceptions and four sacks so far, which is not typical of this usually aggressive defense. They need to make Jets QB Mark Sanchez uncomfortable with a better edge rush without being forced to blitz a lot. As for the rushing defense, tackle Kevin Williams has been more vocal than usual and has somewhat called out his teammates to get their act together and start playing better football. Still, Minnesota is a solid ninth in rushing defense, allowing 87.3 ypg. Minnesota is on a 6-1-1 ATS run coming off a bye week and it is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record. The Jets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. Minnesota also falls into a solid underdog situation. Play or road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a divisional win going up against an opponent coming off a double digit road win. This situation is 60-29 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1983. 9* Minnesota Vikings
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10-10-10 | New Orleans Saints v. Arizona Cardinals +7 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show | |
This line is baffling to me but to the public, it is the exact opposite. That I feel good about. The Saints are not right plain and simple. This team is good enough to break out at any time but when will we see it? Playing against a bad team on the road may be just the cure but I feel just the opposite as I don
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10-10-10 | St. Louis Rams v. Detroit Lions -3 | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
The Detroit curse continues. The Lions have been oh so close on several occasions this season but have yet to break into the win column. Coming off so many close calls could really hurt a team going forward and a Lions team from the past would fold. Not this team and that can be attributed to the coaching and the hunger of these young players. The schedule has not been in their favor either as three games have been road divisional games with the lone home game being a test against the Eagles. Kudos have to go out to the Rams for their two-game winning streak. How impressive is it? They won only once in their previous 28 games so they may be on to something. Let
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10-10-10 | Denver Broncos +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a great spot for Denver in my opinion. This goes against the theory of playing west coast teams on the east coast in an early game (although Denver is just two time zones away and not three), but there are many more factors in the Broncos favor here. Denver is coming off a big road win against the Titans last week and that is playing into this line with a reverse effect. Winning on the road in the NFL is tough enough, let alone trying to do it twice in a row but this line is way off base. Baltimore is saying all of the right things this week about not having a letdown but it is inevitable. The Ravens are coming off a last minute win over the rival Steelers last week which happened to be their third straight divisional game. And those came after the physical opener against the Jets. While teams cannot be thought of to be taking breaks but they do and this is the perfect spot for that to happen for the Ravens. To make it even more possible is the fact they are at New England next week. Head coach Josh McDaniels can be a fool when he speaks but this guy knows offense. The Denver offense slipped last season in his first year as coach but that is bound to happen with a new system. Now that system has been in place for two years and the Broncos are full throttle. Denver is fourth in the NFL in total offense including first in passing defense and they can have success here against the tough Ravens defense. They will utilize three- and four-wide receiver sets to make the Ravens defend the entire field. For the Ravens, quarterback Joe Flacco has been struggling as he has just a 70.5 quarterback rating, easily his lowest in Baltimore. The Broncos defense improved immensely from 2008 to 2009 and the numbers have risen only seven ypg this season. Most important, the rushing defense has decreased its ypc average from 5.0 to 4.5 to 4.1 ypg the last three years. Look for Broncos defensive coordinator Don Martindale to utilize more zone run blitzes and eight-man fronts in this matchup. Reason being is that while Flacco has struggled, so has the running game. The Ravens have been less than impressive rushing the ball, averaging just 84.3 ypg on 3.0 ypc and need to get back to pounding the rock between the tackles. It is easier said than done however. Denver has outgained all four of its opponents just as Baltimore has done so it is doing something right. The Broncos are +71.7 ypg in yardage margin while Baltimore is +70.7 ypg. Does that translate into the Ravens being a touchdown favorite? I don
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10-10-10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 7 m | Show |
Cincinnati is coming off a game it really should have won last week but we cashed a ticket so we are happy about it and we are happy with the circumstances that it proves this week. The Bengals outgained the Browns by 118 total yards and that was the third time in four games they have outgained their opponent with the lone exception being a -6-yard differential against the Ravens. Cincinnati has a bye next week and that sets up a great situation explained later. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye which came after its first loss of the season against the Steelers and it sure was not pretty. That dropped the Buccaneers to 2-1 on the season following wins in their first two games against the Browns and Panthers which are a combined 1-7 so the 2-1 record is a little inflated. Tampa Bay has been outgained in all three games and the youth is really starting to show. Going back to last season the Buccaneers have won three straight on the road but the situation is much different now. It is time for the Bengals to get their power running game going. Cincinnati is averaging only 92 ypg on 3.3 ypc and Cedric Benson has been nowhere to be found. That changes here. Tampa Bay is allowing 141.3 ypg on 4.8 ypc, both 28th in the NFL, and they struggled with Pittsburgh's power running game. Tampa Bay does have three very active and productive linebackers, but collectively, they are not a great take-on unit against Cincinnati's downhill ground attack. This will be Benson
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10-10-10 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Buffalo Bills +1.5 | Top | 36-26 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 6 m | Show |
The Bills have shown so far to be one of the worst teams in the league through the first four weeks of the season as they are 0-4 so it is no surprise the majority is lining up on Jacksonville for this one. Buffalo has played three likely playoff teams over the last three weeks and with Miami being 2-2, it is a possible four teams that could be seeing postseason action. This is not a way of justifying their winless record but they have played the second toughest schedule thus far so they finally get a break this week. Jacksonville is 2-2 on the season following its improbable win over the Colts last week as a 59-yard field goal as time expired was the difference. The Jaguars are not as good as that 2-2 record indicates as they have been outgained in all four games and if not for a break against Denver and that lengthy field goal last week, they could easily be sitting at 0-4 as well. Jacksonville obviously does not want to drop to 2-3 but that victory over Indianapolis provides us with a huge letdown spot to play against. The Bills offense has been a disaster this year as they are averaging 237.2 ypg which is dead last in the NFL. It is due to a horrid passing game that is averaging a league-low 131.8 ypg but that can be attributed to the now departed Trent Edwards who posted a 58.3 rating in two games. Ryan Fitzpatrick is definitely better for this offense and his rating of 88.1 in two starts is pretty solid. The Bills average 105.5 ypg which is right in the middle of the NFL. Their 4.7 ypc is sixth best and they will have success here. Jacksonville has been decent against the run but that is due to teams lighting it up through the air with no need to run. The Jaguars have seen the 11th fewest rushing attempts this season and they are allowing 4.3 ypc which is 20th in the NFL. Buffalo will be able to run on this defense and with that, Fitzpatrick can have another big day just like he did against the Patriots, which are 28th in the NFL in passing defense, as the Jaguars are 30th in passing defense. The 9.2 ypa is easily the worst in the league. Buffalo will have to key on Maurice Jones-Drew despite him being off to a slow start as he is averaging only 80.5 ypg on 3.9 ypc. The Bills need to crowd the box and throw some creative blitzes to force David Garrard to throw and make him beat them. Buffalo has been shredded on defense but the first four games have come against three teams that are ranked first, fifth and fifth in ppg. Jacksonville and Miami average around the same ppg and Buffalo played well then and the Jaguars are a step below the Dolphins. Play on home teams that are coming off a loss by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last five seasons. The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg and they are a horrible 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games after facing a divisional opponent. Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games off a double-digit loss against an opponent off a straight up and ATS win. 10* Buffalo Bills
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10-03-10 | Chicago Bears v. New York Giants -3.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 59 h 40 m | Show | |
Final scores in the NFL can be very misleading. For both of these teams, it was the case last weekend and because of it, we are getting a public overreaction and value heading to the other side. The Bears took out Green Bay on Monday night football to move to 3-0 on the season. We cashed a ticket in that game but I will be the first to admit that it was a fortunate win. The Bears were outgained by 103 total yards in that game, the second straight week they were outgained by over 100 yards and won. Misleading. As for the Giants, after starting the season with a blowout win, they have been on the other side of the blowout the last two weeks. New York was manhandled in Indianapolis by the Colts on Sunday night football for the entire public to witness and then last week, it lost by 19 points at home to Tennessee. The game against the Colts was a true beatdown but last Sunday, the Giants won the total yardage battle by 200 yards as turnovers and 11 penalties were the difference. Again, misleading. These misleading finals have given us a solid number on the home team and at the same time, the road team is being hammered. That is an advantage for the Giants which are in desperate need for a win. New York already has 10 turnovers on the season which is second worst in the NFL and the offense needs to cut down on those mistakes and play smart football. The top priority is to get the rung game going as the Giants have gone over 100 yards in each game as are averaging a respectable 4.3 ypc. The Bears rushing defense has been great as they lead the NFL with just 39.7 ypg allowed. While some of that is solid play, some of it is the fact that teams are able to pass the ball all over the place. Chicago is ranked 28th in the league in passing defense as poor play in the secondary and an inability to pressure the quarterbacks are big causes. Chicago has only two sacks which is tied for the lowest in the league. If New York can get the running game going, Eli Manning should be able to feast on the secondary. On the other side Jay Cutler is off to a great start but he is still putting the ball into places he shouldn
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10-03-10 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Diego Chargers -8 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 56 h 3 m | Show |
San Diego dropped to 1-2 following a loss in Seattle last week and it was the second time this season that the Chargers should have won when they lost. San Diego outgained the Chiefs by 192 yards and outgained the Seahawks by 247 yards so a total yardage differential of +439 yards was for naught. This line may seem high for some people for a team that is 1-2 to be laying but I consider there to be a lot of value on the Chargers because if they were actually 3-0, this number would be closer to two touchdowns. Arizona meanwhile is 2-1 and my thinking is that it should be 0-3. We got away with a push with the Cardinals in opening week as the Rams played them tougher than expected. Last week in Oakland, Arizona should have lost but the Raiders missed a short field goal that would have ended the game. The Cardinals have been outgained by 177 yards and 137 yards the last two games and Arizona is only one of two teams with a winning record that have been outgained by more than 50 ypg on average. The Cardinals offense is pretty offensive with Derek Anderson as quarterback. They are averaging only 290.7 ypg which is near the bottom of the NFL and making matters worse, receivers Steve Breaston and Early Doucet are out for this game which makes it a lot easier for the Chargers to key on Larry Fitzgerald. Anderson has a passer rating of 67.6 which is fifth worst of any quarterback that has started all three games this season. You can bet the Chargers will stack the box and make Anderson beat them. Good luck Derek. Arizona defensively is not that good as it has struggled in the early part of the season, allowing 377.7 ypg and 25.7 ppg, 26th and 25th in the league respectively. The Cardinals are allowing 231.3 ypg through the air which is middle of the pack but that number could go up after they face Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, who has thrown for an NFL-high 1,087 yards. The rushing defense is the real weakness and rookie Ryan Mathews can have a huge game if healthy and that will set up the passing game even more. The Chargers have made the playoffs in each of the last four years and they have started 1-2 in two of those years while never starting 3-0 so this is definitely a position they are used to. And it isn
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