Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-03-10 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams +1 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 53 h 41 m | Show | |
Seattle is 2-1 on the season but it is arguably the worst 2-1 team in the league. The Seahawks have win both home games and lost its lone road game which as become the norm as they are 15-1 at home while going 6-19 on the road over the last four seasons. As bad as that is, the numbers this year tell an even bigger story as Seattle has been outgained in all three games thus far and it is -99.3 ypg on average in yardage differential which is the fourth worst in the league and the worst of any winning team. St. Louis won its first game of the season last week against the Redskins and while it was only its second win in its last 29 games, I like the way this team is looking and coming together. A couple breaks and the Rams could be 3-0 right now and would be classed with Kansas City as the worst undefeated team in football but because it lost two of those games, we are getting some value this week. The Rams have not been favored since Week 13 of the 2007 season which is quite a span but if there is a game that needs to buck that trend, this is it. Sam Bradford has been playing really well as a rookie at quarterback. He struggled in his first game against Arizona and justifiably so since it was his first ever start but against Oakland and Washington, he has put up passer ratings of 86.6 and 78.1 respectively. He's clearly gaining confidence as the week
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10-03-10 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 34 m | Show | |
The Browns are 0-3 on the season but they are not playing bad football at all. The first two losses against Tampa Bay and Kansas City both could have been won and last week against Baltimore, Cleveland had a lead midway through the fourth quarter before the Ravens came back and won. This is the fourth time in five years the Browns have started 0-3 and while losing stinks, this is the
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10-03-10 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 64 h 5 m | Show |
We played on the 49ers last week and they came up small, real small. The short week and the heartbreaking Monday night loss to the Saints obviously took their toll more than we thought. Now at 0-3, San Francisco is really in desperation mode and this spot sets up real well to break into the win column. The 49ers are travelling for a second straight week however this week sets up better than last week coming off that Monday nighter and the 49ers are 2-1 ATS in the second of consecutive roadies under Mike Singletary. On the other side, the Falcons are coming off a monster victory over the Saints in New Orleans and it was a very fortunate victory than came in overtime thanks to a missed field goal on the other side. Even so, fortunate or not, it was a game they had circled on the schedule and this week spells letdown, especially with a winless team coming to visit. It was Atlanta
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09-27-10 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
The Packers are a huge public play in this game as over 75 percent of the 42,000 wagers have come in on the road team. Green Bay is a trendy side to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl which makes it a popular bet every week and even more so on Monday night in the role of the favorite. We have seen both home underdogs cash tickets throughout the first two weeks of the season on Monday and we won
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09-26-10 | New York Jets +2.5 v. Miami Dolphins | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
This line screams Miami. The Dolphins have won their first two games of the season, both of which took place on the road, and now their head back to Florida for their home opener. Laying a short number in a primetime game is going to get a lot of backers on their side but we are already seeing a reverse line movement. The majority of the sharp action has been on the Jets and yet the line has gone up from a -1 opening to a present line of -2. It isn
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09-26-10 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos +6 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 11 m | Show |
Everyone saw Peyton Manning and the Colts manhandle the Giants on national television Sunday night and that is going to get the public on the road team this Sunday. Indianapolis is a very public betting team to begin with so taking value away and putting it on the home team is always beneficial. Going back to last season, the Colts are 6-2 ATS as road favorites with one of those losses coming this year at Houston. Indianapolis cannot possibly lose another road game right? The final score against Seattle shows a blowout but the boxscore shows only a 30-yard advantage for the Broncos so many will find that misleading. However, it is not misleading as Seattle outgained Denver 99-6 in the final three drives for both teams when the game was already decided. At one point, Denver scored in four of five possessions between the second and fourth quarters and all of those scoring drives were 80 yards or longer. There were issues but the Broncos were still in complete control. Denver will be playing with a heavy heart on Sunday following the tragic death of receiver Kenny McKinley. McKinley, a fifth-round pick of the Broncos in 2009, was on Denver's injured reserve and out for the year with a knee injury that he suffered early in the preseason. He played in just eight games last season a rookie but it matter none about playing time as he was part of the Denver family. Situations like this always gets a team to give it that extra and try to win for their fallen teammate. These two teams met in Indianapolis last season and the Colts were able to jump on top with an early 21-0 lead and never looked back. The Colts were 12-0 at the time while Denver came in 8-4 and Indianapolis was favored by only 6.5 points. I say only because of the comparison to the line this year that has seen a change of venue. Not a whole lot has changed since that meeting so making Indianapolis the favorite by roughly the same number in Denver is a complete overadjustment. Manning is up to his old tricks but flying under the radar here is Kyle Orton who has put up a passer rating of 103.9 which is good for sixth best in the NFL. Playing at home has been pure gold for him as he is 20-5 as a starter and he can build off of last year
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09-26-10 | Pittsburgh -2 v. Tampa Bay | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
Does Tampa Bay deserve to be 2-0? There are arguments that favor both sides and my stance is pretty simple. The Buccaneers do in fact deserve to be 2-0 for the simple reason that they have played two horrible teams. Tampa Bay didn
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09-26-10 | Dallas +3 v. Houston | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Americas Team is not playing like Americas Team and I am just fine with that. Not because I am a Cowboys hater (which I am) but because it provides a lot of value in this game. If this game was played in Week One, the Cowboys would have been favored, just like the Colts were. Now being 0-2, Dallas is getting no love as it is an underdog by a field goal and that is excellent value for a team that needs to win plain and simple. It is no east task but the season comes down to this game. I give a lot of credit to Houston following the first two weeks of the season. The Texans were able to get the monkey off their back and take out the Colts for the first when it actually meant something. I think even more impressive was the comeback last week. We were on the Redskins based on the game being a big letdown for Houston as well as added value in the line and the Texans came out lethargic before making a huge comeback and winning in overtime. The Texans have a very explosive offense and one that can do a lot of damage. Against the Colts, it was the running game and against the Redskins, it was the passing game. Against the Cowboys, things will be a lot tougher because Dallas has a strong pass rush and the Texans offense takes time for routes to develop. The Cowboys are a top ten defense and while stopping Houston will not likely happen, slowing the Texans down just enough will be beneficial for the offense. The Cowboys are winless after being picked by a lot of people to make it to the Super Bowl. While the season is not done, it is teetering on that and a win is necessary. If the Cowboys were playing poorly, it would be one thing but they have actually dominated those teams. They have the edge in first downs (47-31), third-down conversions (11 of 26, 4 of 24), total yards (790-558), offensive snaps (142-105), passing yards (651-431) and time of possession (33:51, 26:09). That alone tells us there are other factors that have led to the slow start and those should be cured heading into this week. Even though the preseason means little, there is still travel involved and the Cowboys ended up playing five games in the exhibition campaign and that is simply too much. Blame on being worn-out or not but the Cowboys had the look the first two weeks of a tired team. If anything is going to wake them up, it is a game like this that is needed plus it comes against the lone state rival. The Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and the poor pass defense is also part of a solid situation. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing seven or more passing ypa in their last game going up against an opponent after allowing eight or more passing ypa in their last game. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* Dallas Cowboys
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09-26-10 | San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
If the records of these two teams were reversed, what would this line be? The 49ers would probably be favored by six points or thereabouts and that would make the dynamic of this game completely different. The actual records do in fact give us value in this number but it is very safe to assume that the 49ers could be undefeated while the Chiefs could be winless. Instead, the 49ers find themselves in an absolute must win situation to keep their season afloat. Kansas City has gotten off to a 2-0 start but it certainly isn
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09-20-10 | New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +6 | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
This is a rematch from the old NFC West days before division realignment took place in 2002. These teams have met five times since then and New Orleans has had the upper hand by going 5-0 both straight up and against the number with the wins coming by an average of 14 ppg. While this past history means little for this game, it does provide the trend players some basis to play on the Saints and that can provide value going our way. Most important, the 49ers are eager for a bounceback. San Francisco was annihilated at Seattle last week 31-6 as a field goal favorite and all of the talk about the 49ers taking over the reigns of the NFC West has fallen off. Interestingly is that San Francisco actually outgained the Seahawks in that game by 21 total yards and it was not because of garbage time drives and yards. The 49ers got down to the Seattle six-yard line twice and to the five-yard line once in their first three drives but ended up with only six points. It didn
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09-19-10 | New York Giants +6 v. Indianapolis Colts | 14-38 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
The Colts are coming off a loss at Houston in their opening game last week and they return home and are laying less than a touchdown on Sunday. Who do you think the public is riding here? Around 72 percent of the wagers have come in on the Colts yet the line is moving in the other direction and that is going to put the public even more behind Indianapolis. Being a Sunday night game on national television, the squares will be all over the short home favorite and by Sunday night we should have this line going up. New York put together a solid effort against Carolina in its opener even though it did take a while to pull away. Clearly, the Giants looked like a different team than the one that finished last season and it all starts with the defense. The stop unit was lit up last season on several occasions and injuries played a big role in that. Offensively, New York was fine as three interceptions were caused by deflected passes and the 376 total yards and 31 points scored were seventh and fourth respectively in Week One. It is a safe assumption that the Giants are going to try and establish the running game Sunday night. They rushing for only 118 yards against the Panthers which was a disappointment but don
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09-19-10 | Houston Texans v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 115 h 50 m | Show |
This line is a complete overreaction to the Week One results and not the teams as a whole. The Texans are once again one of the hot sleeper teams in the NFL and following their win over Indianapolis on opening week, there may be some truth to that. But does that win over the Colts really give Houston the right to be road favorites? This is certainly a rare occasion for Houston as since the franchise went to Houston, the Texans have been road favorites only six times, going 1-5 ATS in those games. This line has to be a slap in the face to the Redskins and trust me, they will have seen this line. They are coming off a win against the Cowboys on national television Sunday night and the public is going to see that game as a lucky win because of the holding call that ended the game and took away the Cowboys winning touchdown. If that is what the public thinks, that is fine by me. The Redskins probably did not deserve to win as they were outgained but a win is a win and it actually adds value to our side. We can also look at this line in a different way but it is essentially the same in giving us value. Basically, with Houston being favored by a field goal this week, they are saying that Dallas is only a half-point better than the Texans. If those two teams played on a neutral field this week, there is no way the Cowboys would be close to a pickem in that meeting as they would be favored by at least a field goal. Houston also goes from a home underdog to a road favorite which is a rare occurrence in this league. Houston took out the Colts despite a pretty average game from Matt Schaub as he went just 9-17 for 107 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He did not need to throw as Arian Foster was running wild and while the Colts stop unit is a good one, the Redskins are a notch above them. We really didn
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09-19-10 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Cleveland Browns -1 | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a great spot for Cleveland. We ended up pushing with the Browns last week no thanks to some critical errors by Jake Delhomme which was surprising after he has such a stellar preseason. After getting a big lead, one bad pass turned what could have been a 21-3 halftime lead into a 14-10 halftime lead and that completely changed the momentum in the second half. Cleveland now plays in its home opener and while it isn
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09-19-10 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons -6.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 112 h 52 m | Show |
This is a great spot for Atlanta. One very solid early season strategy is to play the bounce angle. This is to play on Week One losers on the road and now coming home to play Week One Winners. This system went just 1-2 last season (Chicago win, Detroit loss and Miami loss) those two losses missed the cover by a combined five points and they came against Minnesota and Indianapolis respectively. Arizona is neither of those two teams and that makes this spot a good one for the home team. The Falcons are coming off a very tough loss in Pittsburgh in overtime as the Steelers scored on their first place from scrimmage in the extra session. Atlanta was outgained by 59 total yards in the game and that final run was for 50 yards so they basically played the Steelers even through four quarters and the score indicated that. Based on that line, which was Atlanta -1, that would make the Falcons -7 against the Steelers at home based on the venue change. Roethlisberger or not, Pittsburgh and Arizona should not be even. The Cardinals went on the road and defeated the Rams by four points in quarterback San Bradford
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09-12-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +3.5 | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Sunday finishes with an interesting divisional matchup between the Cowboys and Redskins and once again, Dallas is high on everyone
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09-12-10 | Arizona Cardinals -4 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 17-13 | Push | 0 | 101 h 2 m | Show |
I tend to shy toward the home underdog in spots like this, especially in the divisional games, but I am not to enthusiastic about the Rams here. This is partly a play against St. Louis, which does not look to take a big forward step this season, but it is more of a play on the Cardinals. This is a statement game for Arizona. With the loss of Kurt Warner as well as other key departures, the two-time division champions are being given no chance to repeat. That will be taken personal. The Cardinals will be going with a quarterback that wasn
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09-12-10 | Detroit Lions +6.5 v. Chicago Bears | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 98 h 0 m | Show | |
This line is a joke. Last season, it was spot on at this time of the year but since then, the Lions are a completely different team in a good way while the Bears have not done much to improve and are actually worse. Detroit is a young team but one that has loads of talent and it can come away with some big surprises this season. An outright win here would be one for starters and that is far from out of the question. The overall schedule is tough for the Lions so a playoff run may be a year away but spread winners are not. The preseason is the preseason and not a while lot can be taken from it. However, Bears quarterback Jay Cutler looked pretty bad and he spent a lot of time on his back in the new Mike Martz offensive system and it is going to take some time for this offense to come around. Cutler went down nine times and following his dismal 2009 season, I see him having very little confidence right now. Chicago went into last season with high expectations and disappointed big time. More disappointments will be on the way. Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams make up three-fourths of the defensive line and it is a line that is going to be a lot better. The rushing defense improved immensely from 2008 as it allowed 46 ypg fewer and 0.8 ypc fewer which are big improvements. I expect even more improvement this season. The secondary is a big question mark and when facing teams in the division such as Minnesota and Green Bay, there could be problems. Not against the Bears however. On the other side, quarterback Matthew Stafford had a tough rookie season but that was to be expected. A year of experience under his belt is going to pay huge dividends and I would not be surprised to see a breakout season. He completed over 71 of his passes in the preseason and preseason or not, that is close to a 20 percent increase from last season. He has the best young receiver in the game in Calvin Johnson and the running back tandem of Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best will keep defenses honest. The Bears get Brian Urlacher back from injury after he missed almost all of last season and that is obviously huge for that defense. They also brought in Julius Peppers to anchor the right side of the defensive line so the defense is bound to be better following three straight years of average play following its trip to the Super Bowl in 2006. How much better will depend on the secondary. Even though the unit was in the top half of the NFL in yards allowed, teams didn
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09-12-10 | Cleveland Browns +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay went all of last season, all 16 games, without being favored and here we are in Week One following a 3-13 season and the Buccaneers are favored right out of the gate. To their credit, the Buccaneers faced a brutal home schedule last season as every team on the eight-game home slate finished the season with a .500 or better record so there really were no chances to lay any points. That puts Tampa Bay in some unfamiliar territory and while the future looks good, it isn
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09-12-10 | Atlanta Falcons v. Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
I was hoping to catch the Steelers in a home underdog spot in this opener and sure enough we have it. Obviously it is due to the absence of Ben Roethlisberger but what would the line in this game be if he were playing? Looking at last season, the Steelers were favorites in every home game with six of those lines being -5.5 or higher. I
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09-09-10 | Minnesota Vikings +5.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show |
We really could not ask for much better of a matchup than we have for the opening game Thursday night. The Vikings head back to New Orleans for a rematch of last season
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02-07-10 | New Orleans Saints +6 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 248 h 46 m | Show |
With Indianapolis and New Orleans heading to Miami for the Super Bowl, it marks the first time since 1993 that the two number one seeds from each conference have advanced. That alone should make for an entertaining game and I think one that is gong to make the average fan enjoy the game. I have read so many conflicting stories about this line and where it opened. According to the Las Vegas Sun, the Colts opened as a 5.5-point favorite Sunday evening by Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the group that sets the betting line. Within one hour, however, the number was bet down to 4.5 points at the Las Vegas Hilton and Station Casinos properties. For what it is worth, the number opened at -3 at offshore sites and was quickly bet up to -4 to -4.5 to -5 to -5.5. Obviously these two do not coincide with each other as each is stating that the sharp money came in to move the lines but both went in opposite directions because the opposite teams were taken. The point of this blurb is that the opening money is not our concern here as a lot of that money is bet to set up middle opportunities later. Right now our concern is the line going forward and I do not expect to see a lot of movement during the first week since the casual better is not going to tie up money for two weeks. We will see this number move most likely the middle of next week and it has no where to go but up in my opinion. Therefore, the advice here is to wait as we won
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01-24-10 | Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
I have been struggling with this line this week. There is not much of a difference between these two teams as both possess potent offenses and solid defenses so if anything, we should expect a close game. Therefore anything over a field goal is worth a look and currently, most books as of Thursday afternoon have this line over that key number of three. The Vikings look inviting because of that and I think the public is seeing the same as the early money has come in on the road team and brought this number down from an opening of -4 and even -4.5 in some places. Also, considering that a top seed from the NFC has not made it to the Super Bowl since 1999 may be taking some people off of New Orleans and putting them on the Vikings. I think that is a meaningless trend. That being said and looking more into the on-the-field matchups, the Saints are the call here. We cashed an easy ticket with the Vikings last week as they dominated Dallas. Or did they? They outgained the Cowboys by 75 total yards but 37 of those yards came on that controversial last touchdown drive so the yardage disparity was not that big. The Cowboys could not move the ball after left tackle Flozell Adams left the game and he was a huge loss. Dallas gained 108 yards in the first quarter compared to 110 yards in the final three quarters combined (not counting sack yards) after he left. It is hard to say one player on the line can make a big difference like that but the Vikings pressured Tony Romo to no end after that and that resulted in turnovers and sacks galore. Can Minnesota get the same pressure on New Orleans? It is definitely possible as the defensive line is solid but the Saints allowed only 20 sacks all season long and Drew Brees has the ability to pick apart any defense. The Cardinals were unable to get to Brees last week after getting constant pressure on Aaron Rodgers the previous week, sacking him five times. I do like the under in this game and part of that reason obviously is the Vikings defense as it is a great unit. However, while it may slow down the Saints, I don
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01-24-10 | New York Jets +8 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 31 m | Show |
I liked the Jets last week and I like them even more this week. I believed they had a realistic shot to beat the Chargers outright and that obviously was the case and the same goes for Sunday against the Colts. New York has already gone into Indianapolis and defeated the Colts once this season so who is to say it cannot do it again? Of course we will get the argument that Indianapolis sat its starters in the third quarter which allowed the Jets to come back and win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Of course that helped but we cannot forget that the Jets were only down by five points at that point and they were playing good enough to pull off the upset anyway. We cannot use that game as a comparison but we can certainly use last week when New York completely took the Chargers offense out of their game. Philip Rivers threw for 283 yards but he threw two interceptions, only the fourth time that had happened all season long. This Jets defense is getting the respect it deserves as they have allowed 15 points or fewer in eight straight games, giving up an average of only 9.4 ppg over that stretch. Overall this season they have allowed 17 points or less in 13 of 18 games. The Colts came away with a 17-point victory against Baltimore but it was another bad game in my opinion. It may have been related to rust as the starters played for the first time in three weeks but that are issues going on. The Indianapolis offense, while still potent with Peyton Manning under center, does not look like that same wide-open, quick strike unit that we have seen in the past. It is more of a short passing attack and the fact that the Colts cannot run the ball only makes matter worse for them. What we have here is the NFL
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01-17-10 | New York Jets +8 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
**9** NFL SUNDAY STAR ATTRACTION **LATE** I went against the Jets last weekend against the Bengals for two reasons. I thought there was excellent value on the Bengals based on the shellacking they took in New York in Week 17 as well as the fact the Jets were sending a rookie quarterback on the road for his first ever playoff start. A lot of credit goes out to Mark Sanchez for that game. Even though he did not put up great numbers, he managed the game like he was supposed to do, did not commit any mistakes and played extremely efficient. It helps having a strong running game behind him and there is no reason to think that is going to change here against the Chargers. News York is ranked first in the NFL in rushing offense while its 4.5 ypc is ranked fifth best. The Chargers meanwhile are ranked 20th in rushing defense and its 4.5 ypc allowed is tied for 24th. New York played seven games against teams ranked in the top half of the league in rushing defense and it went 3-4 in those games. It played eight games against teams ranked 22nd or worst in rushing defense (where San Diego is) and it went 5-3 in those games. One loss came against New Orleans because of turnovers, another came against Buffalo in windy conditions and the third came in New England in a big revenge game. The Jets have outrushing their last seven opponents and they are 6-1 in those games. A few weeks ago I was asked who would be most likely to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and the answer was San Diego. While the Chargers are the hottest team in the conference, I am no longer sure they have what it takes to get it done. Two key ingredients to winning in the NFL playoffs are a good running game and a good defense. San Diego does have either of those while the Jets do. Quarterback Philip Rivers has had a sensational season and he has single handedly carried the Chargers to a lot of the success they have had. But if he gets taken out of his passing game, there is not much to fall back on. San Diego is second to last in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging just 88.9 ypg while its 3.3 ypc is dead last in the league. Obviously it has not hurt so far considering the Chargers have won 11 straight games however San Diego has been fortunate to have played a very soft schedule this season as it is ranked 27th in the NFL. They have played seven games this season against teams ranked 26th or worst in rushing defense and they went 6-1 in those games, losing only to Denver by a point. Conversely, they played five games against teams ranked in the top ten in rushing dense and they went only 3-2 in those games with two wins coming by just a field goal and the other by eight points. This cannot be discounted and facing the eighth ranked Jets rushing defense is going to pose another challenge. This line you will notice is +7.5 in some places and +9 in others and the difference is because of teaser protection on the Chargers. The linesmakers know that games ending with a final score deficit of eight or nine are rare so pushing the number up to nine does not hurt as it can only save them on teasers. However, the bigger the better so shop around still. 9* New York Jets
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01-17-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. Minnesota Vikings -2.5 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 142 h 46 m | Show |
**10** PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR *62% RUN* Once Dallas won yet again on Saturday, this game was circled as the spot just is not a good one for the Cowboys. The rating went up based on this line which is shorter than I expected. The Cowboys have been involved in some big games of late as they have played three straight division games following back-to-back games against San Diego and New Orleans. Obviously they have performed well in those spots, going 4-1 while winning the statistical battle in all, but that actually helps us now. Everyone is hearing how good the Cowboys are playing right now and about how they are all of a sudden a team that looks like it may make a Super Bowl run. That kind of talk is putting a lot of money on the side of Dallas and shifting the value in our direction which would normally be a rarity. The Vikings and Brett Favre were one of the most public teams the entire season so getting them at this price on their home field is worthy of a big take. Minnesota finished the regular season with a perfect 8-0 record at home and that includes three wins against teams that made it to the playoffs this season. The schedule overall was far from daunting as was ranked easiest in the NFL but the fact that the Vikings went 3-0 in the three games against teams in the top ten shows that they were able to win the big games and they cannot be blamed for playing a soft schedule. Minnesota definitely faltered toward the end of the season with three losses in the last five games but those three defeats came on the road on grass fields and this is a completely different team when playing in the dome. The Vikings offense averaged close to a touchdown more per game at home than on the road while putting up 425.8 ypg. They will be challenged by a Cowboys defense that is playing its best of the season right now as it is coming off two straight shutouts following by a 14-point effort in the second home matchup with the Eagles. However there are way to go after that defense and a balanced offense is certainly a good place to start. The Eagles have no balance, the Redskins have no balance and the Saints, who are definitely more balanced, three it 45 times and ran it only 13 times in the meeting against Dallas. The Vikings have one of the best running backs in football as well as one of the best quarterbacks in the game as well. Minnesota averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game and 29.2 rush attempts per game and that is the type of balance that can keep a defense on its toes. The running game will be won by the Vikings and with that normally comes a win on the scoreboard. Dallas has been dominant in the running game of late but a lot of that has been due to competition and venue. Minnesota has yard per carry advantages based on the home and road numbers and I feel they are in excellent shape once again here despite the Cowboys recent success. The Vikings returned to the field on Sunday after their week off to rest and heal, and every player participated in the short practice which is huge since nagging injuries also hurt Minnesota down the stretch. The run for the Cowboys puts Minnesota into a great contrarian situation. Play against teams that are coming off three consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, Dallas is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 road games after gaining more than 400 total yards last game and it is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after allowing a touchdown or less in the first half in two straight games. 10* Minnesota Vikings
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01-16-10 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 3-20 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 2 m | Show |
**10** NFL SATURDAY
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01-10-10 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 45-51 | Loss | -140 | 121 h 37 m | Show |
**10** NFL ENFORCER (SUNDAY) **20-10 L3Y** This is the third meeting this season between the Packers and Cardinals although one of those games took place in the preseason. You might think that these teams would know each other for this reason alone but in fact they really don
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01-10-10 | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 48 m | Show |
**9** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY *67% POST RUN* Since the start of the 2002 season, the Patriots have played seven playoff games at home and in only one of those, they were favored by less than four points. That game resulted in a win over the Colts in January of 2005 but the point is the Patriots seem to be in unfamiliar territory. New England is 8-0 at home this season and it is 8-0 at home in playoff games under Tom Brady. That should mean chalk up another one for the Patriots but I am not sold on this team at all. They have been extremely inconsistent all season and with the exception of the win over Baltimore this season, they defeated only one other playoff team at home and that was the Jets in a big revenge game. One thing for Baltimore that is being talked about it its less than impressive résumé against quality opponents and who can argue? Baltimore went 1-6 against teams that made the playoffs and that may be considered a problem. Or is it? One of the losses came in New England by six points where a dropped pass by Mark Clayton was the possible difference between a win or a loss. The Ravens defeated the hottest team in the league in San Diego. The other losses came against Green Bay by 13 points, two tight losses against the Bengals, a loss to the Vikings by two points and a loss to the Colts by two points. Yes, the record is 1-6 but if there is average good 1-6, this is it. On the injury from, there is good news for the Ravens and bad news for the Patriots. For Baltimore, Ed Reed came back last week against the Raiders after missing four games with a knee injury. His presence alone is enormous. A lesser known player is back but one that is just as important. Left tackle Jared Gaither, who missed three games with a foot injury before returning against Oakland, is back in the starting lineup, anchoring a tackle spot that helped the Ravens' ground attack average 137.5 ypg which was fifth best in the NFL. His return is just as important but is definitely flying under the radar. On the other side, the loss of Patriots receiver Wes Welker cannot be understated. He led the NFL with 123 receptions, finished second in yardage with 1,348 yards and his 96.3 ypg was also second best. He had six games where he went over 100 yards receiving and the Patriots went 5-1 with the lone loss being a one-point setback in Miami. They went 5-5 in the other eight games he played as well as the two games he missed. It is a significant loss. Baltimore is 9-7 and a couple breaks its way instead of against it and you are looking at this team being 11-5 or 12-4 or even better as of those seven losses, four came by a field goal or less. Play on road teams involving two teams with winning records that are revenging a loss. This situation is 43-20 ATS (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Baltimore Ravens
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01-09-10 | Philadelphia Eagles +4 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -108 | 110 h 45 m | Show |
**9** NFL STAR ATTRACTION **90% ANGLE** Judging by the way Philadelphia played this past Sunday, the Cowboys like the easy take. If only it were that easy. The best way to look at that game in my opinion is to simply throw it out. It was not an indication of how the Eagles have been playing as it is more of an aberration than anything. Philadelphia was shutout for the first time in four years and because of the loss, the Eagles dropped from the second seed to the sixth seed and now will have to win three road games instead of one home game and one road game to make it to the Super Bowl. I like Philadelphia when it is down however and it seems to play better when it isn
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01-09-10 | New York Jets v. Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 33 m | Show |
**10** NFL ENFORCER *15-6 YTD* *20-10 L3Y* It is safe to assume that Cincinnati wanted to lose against the Jets on Sunday. The Bengals simply went through the motions against New York as it gave nothing away knowing a rematch would take place in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs next week in Cincinnati. Had three Bengals won, they would have been the number three seed and would have hosted Baltimore, a team they had beaten twice this season but that was a divisional foe they had played twice with both games being highly competitive. This is the draw Cincinnati wanted and whether it los on purpose is debatable but now it looks to get its revenge on the Jets who are a pretty lucky group right now. New York was left for dead a few weeks back after losing at home to Atlanta but because everything went right, the Jets were able to make it into the playoffs. It was a second straight win against a team that backed down as the Jets defeated previously undefeated Indianapolis last Sunday when Peyton Manning and other Colts starters were pulled in the second half. Several other teams in playoff contention lost, setting up the Jets
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01-03-10 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
This is easily the best game of the day and it is surprising this was not picked up by NBC for the Sunday night game. The winner of this game takes home the NFC East plain and simple. Advantage home team right? Not really as the home field advantage of Cowboys Stadium has not lived up to the hype. 10 teams have won more home games than the Cowboys entering the final weekend of the regular season and they have lost two of the three games they have played against opponents with a winning record at Cowboys Stadium. Dallas comes into this game with a two-game winning streak which is surprising since it is December and both of those came on the road. This is a revenge game for the Eagles who lost at home to Dallas back on November 8th. That defeat was the first of two straight before Philadelphia got things back in order. It has won six straight games since a loss to the Chargers and it has won the yardage battle in six of the last seven games overall. While the division is at stake here, a week off is also at stake for the Eagles who can claim the second seed in the NFC East with a win and that means an all important bye week next week. Making it even more important, a loss here coupled with wins by Minnesota and Arizona would mean a fall all the way to the fifth spot and a game in this same stadium next week. The Cowboys are in the same boat as this game means everything also but right now it is Philadelphia playing better all around. The revenge factor puts the Eagles into a great situation. Play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss, in a game involving two teams that are winning between 60 and 75 percent of their games in the second half of the season. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* Philadelphia Eagles
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01-03-10 | Kansas City Chiefs +13 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 44-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
The Broncos were the surprise of the NFL early this season and they stormed out to a 6-0 start. It has been all downhill since however with the exception of a couple good efforts thrown in there. They are 2-7 over their last nine games and yet are being asked to win this game by double-digits. Why? Because they are in the classically overhyped
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01-03-10 | Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 59 m | Show |
**10** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY *15-4 10* RUN* This line is a complete overreaction to recent events and is not taking the whole situation into account. Jacksonville has dropped three straight games while the Browns have won three straight games so they have been tabbed the slight favorite here. Winning three straight games is a big accomplishment and Cleveland has not seen that happen since 2001 but let
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01-03-10 | New England Patriots +8 v. Houston Texans | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
The term
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01-03-10 | New York Giants +9 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 7-44 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Had the Giants won last week, this line would probably be around the range of -4. But because New York lost last week it has nothing to play for while the Vikings need this win and an Eagles loss against Dallas to claim the number two seed in the NFC. I highly doubt the Giants are going to throw in the towel no matter what happened last week. If there is a team that needs a positive boost heading into next season, it is New York as it arguably was the biggest disappointment this season right up there with Pittsburgh. The
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12-28-09 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears +9 | Top | 30-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
With the Saints losing on Sunday, this game suddenly becomes a lot bigger for the Vikings. We knew this line was going to rise come Monday but now we are going to see even more action on Minnesota and that means a big fade the public play here. With everything at stake for the Vikings and nothing riding for Chicago, as of Monday morning, 75 percent of the over 61,000 wagers have been placed on the Vikings. The public won last night with the Cowboys and will be hard-pressed to back it up again. Minnesota is a 4-3 on the road this season but two of those wins came in dome stadiums similar to its own and three of those wins have come against teams a combined 6-36 and that is far from impressive. A road win at Green Bay was the other but that is when Green Bay was struggling and that would be a different game if played today. The last two road games were played in very similar settings. The Vikings faced Arizona three weeks ago in a Sunday night game and Minnesota was beat in all facets in that game. Last week, it was another Sunday night game, this one at a much weaker Carolina team and the results were the same as the Vikings were outgained by 160 yards and were thumped by the Panthers. The thinking by many here is that the Vikings bounce back against another weak opponent but it will not be that easy. The thinking is that the Bears have packed it in for the season and I am on board with that. Partially. Chicago did not show up at Baltimore last week but that was a big it was far from interested in. At home against a division rival it is a different story. The last home game against Green Bay saw great effort and the other big home game before that, against the Eagles, was similar. This is it for the Bears as they want to play spoiler against their hated rivals and we will see the effort tonight. 9* Chicago Bears
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12-27-09 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +7 | Top | 17-0 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
**9** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *62% RUN* This is the classic over-reaction/under-reaction scenario. Dallas is coming off a massive win against the Saints while the Redskins looked horrible on Monday night football. Just those two games alone has sent this line through the roof. Dallas goes from a touchdown road underdog to a touchdown road favorite while the Redskins go from a three-point home underdog to a touchdown home underdog against roughly the same caliber team. This is what we call excellent line value and it makes it even more so in a rivalry game. Washington knows that it embarrassed everything about the organization against the Giants and what better way to make up for it than once again on national television against its most hated rival. The loss against the Giants was the Redskins first bad game in a long time and I don
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12-27-09 | Denver Broncos +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
This is a very tough spot for the Eagles. They clinched a playoff berth last week with their win over the 49ers, their fifth straight and they have a massive game on deck next week against the Cowboys with some revenge added to the mix. I do think the Eagles right now are the team to beat in the NFC but this is a tough number to be putting down especially against a team that is all of sudden in desperation mode. Even though this one is at home, Philadelphia has not fared well against the AFC, losing to both the Raiders and the Chargers and while it is 9-2 against NFC foes, it is 1-2 against the AFC. If the season ended today, the Broncos would be in the playoffs but unfortunately, the season still has two games remaining. Denver has dropped six of eight, allowing the Chargers to come back from a 3.5-game deficit and clinch their fourth straight division crown. Denver can win out and claim a playoff spot no matter what any other team does and with the season finale at home against Kansas City, a win here and that goal is likely met. The Broncos are coming off a tough home loss against Oakland last week and the redzone offense was to blame as they have to settle for four field goals. The good news here is that the Eagles are ranked in the bottom third of the league in redzone defense, allowing a touchdown percentage of 55.8 percent. The team is still confident and that is the most important part at this stage of the season. I love the fact that the Broncos are two games better than San Francisco yet are getting the same amount of points the 49ers received last week. Play against teams after three consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, play on underdogs or pickems with a winning record below .600 that are coming off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 8* Denver Broncos
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12-27-09 | Detroit Lions +13.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
The Lions are 0-7 on the road and the linesmakers are telling us that they will be 0-8 after this Sunday as they are not being given a shot here. Even more surprising to me is that the line continues to go up. Detroit is a risky play no doubt about it but in its last road game in Baltimore, a playoff team, it was getting right around the same amount and it would not be surprising to see this number hit two touchdowns by gametime but that won
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12-27-09 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR The thinking here is going to be the fact that New Orleans is going to bounce back following its first loss of the season while Tampa Bay is in for a big letdown following its win in Seattle last week. The public is gong with this logic as the majority of early bets are on the Saints even though early sharp money brought this number down from -15 and-16 to its current line of -14 in most places on Saturday morning. The Saints loss on Saturday looked as though this game would become more important but with Minnesota losing Sunday night, the Saints are still two games up for home field advantage through the playoffs so this game has taken a lesser priority. As for the Buccaneers, they showed they have not given up this season and it will be even more ready in this divisional game. Tampa Bay will go as far as rookie quarterback Josh Freeman takes it. He has had four very good games, with a passer rating of 75.9 or better and three really bad games with a passer rating of 36.5 or worse. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in those good games and 0-3 ATS in those bad games so it is obvious what we are looking for here. Freeman has faced the Saints already once this season, one of the bad games, and that is a huge edge for him getting a look a second time. The results will be much better this time around especially with the New Orleans injury list being a mile long including numerous defensive players. Tampa Bay falls into two very solid situations. Play against divisional home favorites of 10.5 or more points that are coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. Also, play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after one or more consecutive wins against the spread in the second half of the season. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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12-27-09 | Jacksonville Jaguars +9 v. New England Patriots | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
Jacksonville disappointed a lot of people last Thursday as it went toe-to-toe with Indianapolis but lost by four points and missed the cover by a point. This was the second straight four-point loss for the Jaguars who also lost against Miami the previous week as the playoff chances are starting to dwindle. The good news is that Tennessee lost on Friday so that is one less team that Jacksonville needs to worry about. A 9-7 finish guarantees nothing but with the season finale at Cleveland next week, this has turned into a must win game for the Jaguars. It looked like New England was finally making strides and was poised to run away with the AFC East but the Patriots have actually gone the other way. That loss against the Colts has not gone away. They bounced back with a relatively easy win over the Jets but that was handed over to them by Mark Sanchez. After that it was two straight losses against the Saints, who dominated, and the Dolphins, who came back from a two-touchdown deficit. The Patriots have won two straight games but neither has been impressive and the swagger that this team used to have can no longer be seen. New England has nothing to play for even though the division isn
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12-25-09 | San Diego Chargers v. Tennessee Titans -3 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 35 m | Show |
**9** NFL CHRISTMAS BEATDOWN **35-21 RUN** This is a perfect example of a reverse line movement. As of Thursday morning, 75 percent of the over 20,000 wagers have been placed on the Chargers yet we have seen the line move from Tennessee -2.5 to Tennessee -3. A lot of books opened this number at -3 and it hasn
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12-20-09 | Minnesota Vikings v. Carolina Panthers +9 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 39 m | Show |
Minnesota is a solid 4-2 on the road this season but two of those wins came in dome stadiums similar to its own and three of those wins have come against teams a combined 5-34 and that is far from impressive. A road win at Green Bay was the other but that is when Green Bay was struggling and that would be a different game if played today. The last road game was played at Arizona in a similar setting on Sunday night and Minnesota was beat in all facets in that game. The Panthers are not close to the Cardinals but that could make this spot even worse for Minnesota who could get caught napping in a possible lookahead to the rival Bears next week. Carolina played with good effort last week in New England and even though the playoffs are officially out of reach, the Panthers in good shape to keep this one close. The only thing left for Carolina is to play spoiler and it hopes to do so by shortening this game with a heavy does of the running game. The Panthers are fourth in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging 149.9 ypg and their 4.8 ypc is third in the league. The Viking rushing defense is once again up near the top of the league but they have shown vulnerabilities to solid running backs, most recently last week against Cedric Benson who rushed for 96 yards on 16 carries (6.0 ypc). Matt Moore will be making his third start on the season at quarterback and while the offense has been far from explosive, he has put up ratings of 73.1 and 82.2 so he has not been bad at all and will continue to get better with the more reps and experience he gets. Brett Favre is having a spectacular season as everyone is fully aware of but the last couple weeks have been anything but solid. He has posted two of his three worst performances of the season as far as passer rating and his three combined interceptions are the same amount he had through his first 11 games. It didn't help that Favre was without rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin last week and he will likely again be inactive on Sunday due to recurring migraine headaches. Carolina is sixth in the NFL in passing defense and its 6.6 ypa allowed is good for a tie for seventh. The Panthers can take some comfort in knowing they're on a bit of a roll when it comes to pass defense, with 11 turnovers created the past three games, including seven interceptions. Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog of more than a touchdown but less than two touchdowns while the Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a contest where they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record and they fall into a great league-wide situation based on low scoring games showing the defense has played a significant role. Play on home underdogs or pickems with a losing record after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just -1.6 ppg. 8* Carolina Panthers
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12-20-09 | Green Bay Packers v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 36-37 | Win | 100 | 145 h 48 m | Show |
**10** NFL GAME OF THE YEAR ***14-3 RUN*** The Packers have won five straight games and are in the driver
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12-20-09 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Seattle Seahawks -6 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 37 m | Show |
Seattle got its doors blown off last week in Houston and this will make the third time this season that the Seahawks return home following a blowout loss on the road. The first resulted in a 410 win against Jacksonville following a loss in Indianapolis and the second resulted in a 32-20 win over Detroit after a loss in Dallas. They also lost a game in San Francisco and came home and lost against the Bears but that one cannot be counted due to quarterback Matt Hasselbeck being out. After getting pounded last week, Seattle can now tee off on the once again hapless Buccaneers. This is still one of the best home venues in football and it doesn
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12-20-09 | Cincinnati Bengals +7 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 29 m | Show |
I was on the Bengals last week in Minnesota and they did not play as bad as the final score indicated. More on that later. I liked the Bengals to bounce back this week before the horrific and unfortunate death of wide receiver Chris Henry. Henry had his share of problems in the past but he seemed to have turned his life around the last couple seasons which makes this even that much more unfortunate. The Bengals will be grieving over this for the rest of the season and you will hear arguments about how they are going to lose focus because of this but I think this will make the team even stronger, especially this game, as they will go out to try and win for their fallen teammate. Cincinnati
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12-20-09 | Arizona Cardinals v. Detroit Lions +12.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 47 m | Show |
**9** NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH *82% RUN* When talking about the public, it does need to be clarified. I could care less about what side the public is on, it can be one percent or it can be 100 percent. The reason for talking about the public so much has to do with line value. Linesmakers take that into consideration the most when making these lines as to avoid heavy action on one side. This line could be Arizona -7 and we could see over 80 percent of the action on the Cardinals. The fact that the current line sits at -12.5 and we still have 85 percent of the action on the Cardinals tells us that no matter how big the line is, there is going to be one-sided action. Therefore the bigger line only helps us even more. Therefore, I think we can take a shot in the dark and guess where the public perception lies in this game. This is the classic overreaction as there is no way that Arizona can play another bad game like the one it played on Monday night. Well, it definitely can. Even though the Cardinals lead in the NFC West is down to two games, it is going to be tough to get up here especially knowing that the final two games of the season are at home. Arizona started the season 5-0 on the road but has dropped its last two roadies and while a win here is more than a possibility, a blowout win is not going to be easy. Seeing the Lions get slaughtered in Baltimore last week also has the public perception leaning toward an Arizona blowout. Detroit looked like a JV football team against the Ravens and it was not exactly optimal conditions to be playing in to it credit plus it was playing with Dante Culpepper behind Center. Now that Matthew Stafford has had two and half weeks to rest, he will be back and we will see a different Lions team on the field this Sunday. Detroit is a respectable 2-4 at home with two of those losses coming by eight points or less and another coming by 14 points to the Vikings. Yes the Cardinals did beat the Vikings but that is meaningless in this case. Detroit has scored 12, 13 and 3 points in its last three games but that is to out benefit here as the Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 14 points or fewer in three straight games. Also, it is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after getting outgained by 200 or more yards in its previous game. The Lions also fall into numbers league-wide contrarian situations including play on home teams with a winning percentage of less than .250 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, and now playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 25-2 ATS (92.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points that have been outgained by 100 or more ypg on the season, after being outgained by 75 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-8 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. Both of these go back a long time, especially the second one so they have stood up over time at a highly successful rate. 9* Detroit Lions
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12-19-09 | Dallas Cowboys +8 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
**9** NFL SATURDAY PRIMETIME **63.8% RUN** Everywhere you read, it is all about the December Dallas collapse. While the Cowboys have struggled in this month, I don
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12-17-09 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 THURSDAY DECEMBER PLAY *82%* It took a while for this line to come out but it is about right where I thought it would be. The undefeated Colts come into Jacksonville for a huge Thursday night game with a lot on the line for both sides. However, the stakes are much higher for the home team so we will grab the points here which may not even come into play. Indianapolis is going for a perfect record this season but it is not of the highest priority right now. Obviously the Colts was to keep winning and keep the positive momentum rolling but most important right now is the health of the team and quite frankly, it is not very healthy. Head coach Jim Caldwell said that all healthy starters will start the game and with a massive injury list, that may not be too many. He did not say how long they would be playing however. I am banking on then playing the entire game and if they do not, it is even better for us. The Colts have home field advantage wrapped up so there is no reason to take too many risks here. The Jaguars are coming off a home loss against Miami on Sunday and that put a big hit on their playoff position in the AFC. They are now tied with four other teams for the final Wild Card spot with three other teams just a game back. Jacksonville could have put a lot of pressure on the pack with a win over the Dolphins but it was not meant to be so this game becomes major priority. The Jaguars are 5-2 at home so this is the final home game of the season and in primetime makes it even bigger. They have to go to New England next week so a loss here means they could very well head into the season finale with a 7-8 record and possibly out of the playoff picture. For the first time this season the Jaguars have sold enough tickets to a contest to have their television blackout lifted. Former Colts coach Tony Dungy said he expects to see "a ton" of backup quarterback Curtis Painter in place of Peyton Manning, and team President Bill Polian has indicated perfection is not a priority. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both of whom have been banged up over the last month, figure to see limited minutes while others like tight end Dallas Clark, who are subject to taking a physical pounding because of the positions they play, are also likely to be limited. Jacksonville has a history of competing well with the Colts, as the last four games in the series have been decided by a total of only 14 points. Prior to that, late in the 2006 season, the Jaguars defeated the Colts 44-17 so this team definitely presents some matchup problems. The Jaguars come in with the much better rushing game and they are going to no doubt use it heavily here. Jacksonville falls into a solid situation as well. Play on home underdogs with a winning record on the season below .600 that are coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +5.1 ppg. 10* Jacksonville Jaguars
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12-14-09 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers +4 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
**9** NFL MONDAY PRIMETIME **5-1 MNF RUN** This is a great situation for the 49ers and a personal favorite. Arizona is coming off a Sunday night win over the Vikings last week for the whole public to see. When a team looks as good as it did in the national spotlight and is once again on national television the following week, this is when we want to go against. The main reason is line value as in this case the Cardinals went from a three-point home underdog to a three-point road favorite and that type of line shift is not uncommon when it comes to a case like this. The public will no doubt be riding the hot team it saw last week so the linesmakers need to make the adjustment the following week which they did and it is once again an overadjustment. As of Sunday early afternoon, three-fourths of betting action is on the Cardinals and that has made the line go up even more and that certainly is more than fine. The 49ers season has been a big disappointment as they came in with a lot of expectations. A loss in Minnesota on the final play of the game was only the first of the season but that tough defeat really sent San Francisco into a tailspin. The 49ers are 3-7 in those last 10 games but only one of those losses has been by more than a touchdown with four coming by four points or fewer. The defense is playing steady and the offense has been coming around, namely the play at quarterback. Alex Smith has been solid in the new spread offense as he has thrown for 769 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in his last three games. The 49ers, who opened with Shaun Hill as the starter, averaged 175.6 passing ypg in their first nine games so it has been a huge improvement. On the other side, quarterback Kurt Warner has been on fire, Arizona needs just this win to clinch the division and it is playing with revenge. Those three things are all publicly out there and that is definitely putting additional action on the Cardinals. Those factors also play a part in setting the line so while signs point to one side, we are very comfortable in backing the other. San Francisco has played well at home going 4-2 straight up and ATS, and is now 6-2-1 ATS at home under Mike Singletary. It is also on a 6-0 ATS run against teams that are completing 64 percent or more of their passes in the second half of the season. San Francisco falls into a solid situation and it has to do with the severe line shift from last week. Play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 59-30 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. Going back that far, that is a very solid situation that has stood up over time. 9* San Francisco 49ers
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12-13-09 | Philadelphia Eagles v. New York Giants -1 | Top | 45-38 | Loss | -100 | 79 h 0 m | Show |
**9** NFL PRIMETIME SNF **65.5% NFL RUN** The Giants lost the first meeting in Philadelphia before they even came out of the locker room and it was long gone after that as the Eagles piled up a 23-point win. The Giants were in desperation mode last week against the Cowboys and came through and they are once again in the same spot. They need to win to keep pace in the division and even though Dallas plays earlier in the day, it will have no barring on how New York goes about this one. A Cowboys loss and a Giants win puts the Giants in first place while a Dallas win over San Diego means the Giants need to win to remain a game back. If for nothing else, they need to win to keep pace in the Wild Card race. Last week we got a favorable line where New York was actually getting points at home in a divisional game. That win did not sway the linesmakers as they have put up another suspect line in a division game. New York should be favored by a field goal in a home divisional matchup but it is laying less than that meaning a win is a likely cover as well. After the Giants win, Philadelphia dropped two straight games against Dallas and San Diego. The Eagles have rebounded to win the last three games but they were unimpressive wins against non-playoff teams Chicago and Washington and last week it won in Atlanta with ease against a Falcons team that was playing without quarterback Matt Ryan. The only victory Philadelphia has this season that is against a potential playoff team is the Giants as it is 0-3 in the other three games it has played against teams that will likely be in the postseason. Overall, the Eagles have played the 28th ranked schedule while the Giants have played the 10th ranked schedule. The Eagles are the only team in the NFL that is ranked in the top ten that does not have a win against a fellow top ten team (0-2). The first meeting was about the big play for the Eagles as three of the touchdowns were of plays of 41 or more yards. In total, the Giants were outgained by only 35 total yards but they went just 50 percent on third down and 0-2 on fourth down with both of those attempts coming inside the Eagles 30-yard line. I expect the Giants to once again control the time of possession (they won the TOP in the first meeting by more than 11 minutes) and that will keep the offense of the Eagles off the field and less chance of those big plays. The Giants were on the other side of that TOP last week against Dallas but I don
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12-13-09 | St. Louis Rams +13.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 7-47 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
I have been riding St. Louis off and on in the second half of the season and the Rams have been playing very competitive football. They have outgained three of their last five opponents and they are 4-1 against the number in those games. They were outyarded by the Bears last week but only by 15 yards and their redzone lack of success is what did them in even though they still came through with the cover. The defense, which was horrific in the beginning of the season, has improved quite a bit and that is what has been carrying the successful run. After allowing 30.1 ppg through the first seven games, St. Louis has allowed only 20.6 ppg over the last five games and Tennessee does not have an offense that is going to overpower the Rams. The Tennessee season officially came to an end last week even though the Titans are not mathematically eliminated. After starting the season 0-6, they rattled off five straight wins and there was some serious talk about closing the season on a 10-game winning streak as the schedule set up very well for it. Even though the Titans outgained Indianapolis last week, they lost by 10 points and that pretty much ended any chance of a postseason berth. It was a great run but that defeat no doubt knocked the wind out of their sails. Now Tennessee must regroup and play a team that is 1-11 on the season and that just isn
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12-13-09 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -100 | 114 h 33 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR We know where this line is going. It has opened anywhere from -3 to -4 depending on the book and after settling in, we are going to see any -3 numbers have large juice with them and those are eventually going to make their way back up to -3.5 and -4 and that will be direction this line should be taking based on the public action that will be coming in on Green Bay. Personally I think this is one that should be waited until being bet because the best numbers for Chicago will be coming later in the week. I would not be surprised to see this one hit -5 by gametime at a minimum. Chicago lost any shot of a playoff run with a Thursday night defeat at San Francisco. That put the Bears at 4-5 but it was the way the game was lost that sent them into a tailspin with two more losses after that including another tough loss against the Eagles the following game. They are coming off a win over St. Louis this past Sunday but it was unimpressive to say the least. The public wants nothing to do with this team right now and that suits me just fine as this is the biggest rival and the biggest home game every season so we are going to see a huge effort to knock the hated Packers from the Wild Card standings. This is the Bears Super Bowl plain and simple. Green Bay has looked great the last four games ever since that loss against Tampa Bay. The Packers are coming off a big Monday night win against Baltimore that the whole world got to see and this is exactly the time we want to go against them. They have actually been on national television the last two weeks including Thanksgiving so they have two big television wins that will keep the public backing coming in on their side. Green Bay has outgained five straight opponents and it has won the yardage battle in 10 of the last 11 games. One disadvantage came against Minnesota while the other came against Chicago in the season opener in Green Bay. I think Chicago can definitely do it again. The Packers had massive problems with their offensive line early in the season but they have since gotten things straightened out, have protected better and have been able to open running lanes for Ryan Grant. At the same time, the Bears have been unable to stop the run while their own offense has been having trouble. However, looking at raw yards is not the way to go as a lot of that has to do with the game situations both teams have been in and when are talking winning streaks for the Packers and losing streaks for Chicago, the overall numbers will definitely be skewed. Over the last three games, Green Bay is averaging 3.9 ypc while the defense is allowing 3.9 ypg. For the Bears, they are averaging 4.2 ypc while allowing 4.8 ypc and that difference is pretty miniscule. Comparing Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler shows a complete mismatch but breaking it down some shows it isn
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12-13-09 | Denver Broncos +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 51 m | Show |
Don
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12-13-09 | Cincinnati Bengals +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 50 m | Show |
This line is baffling to me. Cincinnati is 9-3 on the season which is just a game worse than the Vikings yet it is catching close to a touchdown. The Bengals are coming off three straight lethargic games and that may have a lot to do with where this number came out at. They lost in Oakland and then played back-to-back home games against Cleveland and Detroit who are a combined 3-21, and walked away with less than impressive wins. The goal was to win those games and nothing more as Cincinnati needed to stay healthy and possibly keep the rest of the schedule guessing for the stretch run. The Bengals are aiming for home field advantage and with three of the final four games on the road, this one becomes extremely important. The Vikings finally lost and they were exposed pretty good in Arizona last Sunday night. That was the first game in over a month that Minnesota actually played a good team so the Bengals are not in the same boat. Minnesota has played the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season behind the Packers and it has played only two games against teams within the top ten in the league. The win came against Baltimore while the loss came last week against the Cardinals. A missed field goal by the Ravens is the reason that record is not 0-2. Eight of the Vikings' victories have come against teams that are .500 or worse: Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, St. Louis, Baltimore, Detroit, Seattle and Chicago. Two wins over Green Bay account for the other two wins and if the Vikings played Green Bay now, those results would likely be different. The Bengals have the best defense in the NFL as far as points allowed with 15.6 per game and their 293.3 ypg allowed is fourth best. Minnesota is eighth in the NFL in total defense and 10th in scoring defense so it is below the Bengals in both categories but still, with two great defenses, points become a premium in such games. The Vikings defense took a huge hit last week with the loss of linebacker E.J. Henderson. Cornerback Antoine Winfield is still out while cornerback Cedric Griffin, the team leader in interceptions, and safety Tyrell Johnson are both questionable. On the other side, running back Adrian Peterson, who did not practice Wednesday because of foot and ankle issues, had the second-worst rushing game of his career last Sunday. He now faces the league
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12-10-09 | Pittsburgh Steelers -10 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
**9** NFL THURSDAY PRIMETIME **31-13 RUN** Pittsburgh is going to be a square play and a very popular play but it is the only side that can be taken here. This is an interesting line. Last week we saw San Diego go into Cleveland as a 13.5-point favorite and now we have a truly desperate Pittsburgh team that has won all 10 meetings with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger under center in this series laying only 10 points. Is San Diego roughly four points better than the Steelers? According to my power rankings, the Chargers are actually five points better than the Steelers right now on a neutral field. However, even though that is the case, that is not a fair comparison since the Chargers went into Cleveland playing great while the Steelers are riding a four-game losing skid so the situations are completely different. The weather is affecting the total but the line is probably not going to move because of it since both teams are affected the same. The weather is going to be a big factor. There is snow and wind in the forecast and while the snow is not that big of a deal, the wind is and that heavily favors the Steelers. Throwing the ball in the wind is an adventure and when you cannot do it to begin with, it is even more of a challenge. Cleveland is 31st in the NFL in passing offense as it is averaging only 143.5 ypg and its 5.0 ypa is easily the worst in the entire league. The problem for Pittsburgh lately has been in the secondary and the absence of Troy Polamalu has certainly not helped matters. The Steelers are 17th in passing defense, allowing 219.7 ypg and after facing the worst passing offense in the league last week, there are going to be significant differences this week. Even if the weather was going to be perfect, Cleveland would struggle as it did in the first meeting when it threw for just 122 yards. Now that the forecast calls for 22 degrees, snow showers and 25 m.p.h. winds, we won
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12-07-09 | Baltimore Ravens v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
**9** NFL #1 DECEMBER REPORT **30-13 RUN** Ever since losing to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been money as they have won three straight games to move right back into the playoff race in the NFC. This run includes a Thanksgiving shellacking against the Lions making this a very favorable spot for Green Bay considering the extra time to rest from that Thursday game. The Lions game also showed Green Bay with a 150-total yard advantage which makes it eight games out of the last nine that the Packers have won the yardage battle. They are 6-3 over that stretch with two losses coming against the division leading Vikings. While Green Bay is in a favorable spot, the Ravens are not. Baltimore is not playing on a short week but it is the next closest thing after playing an overtime game on Sunday night against the Steelers. That resulted in a hard-fought win at home and that does not bode well here. After a 3-0 start to the season, the Ravens are 3-5 in their last eight games and breaking down the schedule shows how average it has been. Two of the wins came against Cleveland while another came against Kansas City and in the last six games, the team that won the yardage battle has won the game and that no doubt favors the Packers as mentioned earlier. The Packers offensive line was a huge concern for most of the first half of the season but the unit has responded very well of late. We have seen more three- and five-step drops, a lot of check downs and quick passes, and throws going to backs and tight ends, and that has limited the amount of sacks quarterback Aaron Rodgers has taken. Baltimore, long known for bringing pressure, has just 21 sacks this season which is tied for 26th in the NFL. That has definitely hurt the passing defense and it has shown against quality quarterbacks. The Packers will need to utilize running back Ryan Grant who is running much better now than in the beginning of the season. With a good running game, Rodgers won't take as many hits, and if they can force the Ravens into some run blitzes, it creates one-on-one matchups and that is where the Ravens struggle the most. Last week Pittsburgh sacked quarterback Joe Flacco five times, hit him seven times and had eight tackles for loss. That showed as Flacco hurt his ankle once again and it is still unclear how bad it is. He is far from 100 percent and he now faces a defense that is second in the NFL, allowing just 281.5 ypg. Green Bay falls into two solid situations. First, play on non-division home teams that are favored by five points or fewer or pickems that are playing on Monday night and coming off a road win. This situation is 20-7 ATS (74.1 percent). Also, play on favorites that are coming off a win against a division rival that playing on Monday night. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent). Green Bay keeps rolling with another big win to stay atop the Wild Card standings. 9* Green Bay Packers
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12-06-09 | Minnesota Vikings v. Arizona Cardinals +3 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 106 | 55 h 2 m | Show |
**9** NFL PRIMETIME SNF **63.5% NFL RUN** This is a horrible spot for Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off a three-game homestand where they swept it including the last game against division rival Chicago. Prior to this homestand was the bye week for Minnesota so it has been home since returning home on November 1st following its game at Green Bay. That is a long time for no travel and now it heads west to play a team that is out to prove something. Minnesota is a solid 4-1 on the road this season but two of those wins came in dome stadiums similar to its own and three of those wins have come against teams a combined 4-29 and that is far from impressive. A road win at Green Bay was the other but that is when Green Bay was struggling and that would be a different game if played today. Arizona was outgained pretty good in Tennessee last Sunday but it had the lead late and almost moved to 6-0 away from home but it allowed the Titans to drive 99 yards on their possession and win the game on the final play of the contest. It was a tough loss for the Cardinals but one they can learn from and bring extra motivation to this huge home game. This is pretty close to a must win for Arizona. It goes to San Francisco next week so a loss here and then a loss on the road to the 49ers means San Francisco could have control of the division barring its own outcome on Sunday. This is a big game for the Cardinals because there is a lot on the line that isn
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12-06-09 | Dallas Cowboys v. New York Giants +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 49 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR The Giants are a desperate team right now. A loss against the Cowboys and their season is all but done but a win puts them right back in the division hunt. Which Giants team shows up? Playing at home certainly helps where it is 3-2 on the season and could be 5-0 as both home losses came when they actually outgained the opponent. New York was favored by five points over San Diego two home games back and now it is getting two points (the median) against the Cowboys. The linesmakers are saying the Cowboys are a touchdown better now than San Diego was three weeks ago and even though the Chargers line would be different now, that is still a huge variance at the same venue. In my opinion, the Giants should be favored by a field goal and my power rankings show that they should be favored by two points. Because they are the underdog, the Giants fall into one of the best NFL systems there is which is explained later. Dallas scored seven points in two straight games against the Packers and Redskins and things were looking bleak. The good news is that Thanksgiving was coming and Oakland was making a visit which should have meant blowout city. The Cowboys did cover against the Raiders but they scored only 24 points against a defense ranked 29th in the NFL. I will go out on a limb and say that the Dallas offense is still struggling and will not get many arguments. The Cowboys are 6-1 in their last seven games but only three of those wins were comfortable and those came against the aforementioned Raiders, the Seahawks and the Falcons. All of those games came at home. After an opening road win in Tampa Bay by 13 points, Dallas is just 2-2 in its last four games on the road with the two wins coming by four points against the Eagles and the other in overtime against the Chiefs. Dallas has defeated only two teams that currently have winning records and its schedule is ranked 30th in the NFL. The combined record of those losing teams is 18-48 with none having more than four wins. The Giants defense is getting a lot of flack and some of it is deserved but their defense is still ranked a solid fourth in the NFL, allowing 290.5 ypg. The rushing defense allowed 251 yards in that first meeting and that was a complete aberration. On the season, the Giants are allowing an average of 106.9 ypg so taking that first effort out knocks that average down to 92.5 ypg which is more in line of the overall picture. Over the last three games, New York is allowing only 87.3 ypg on 3.1 ypc and at home it is allowing only 68.2 ypg on 3.0 ypc. The story early in the week was the rumor that Eli Manning was not going to play due to a new foot injury but that
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12-06-09 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 44 m | Show |
It truly is amazing what can happen to a team when one simple change is made. The Titans started the season 0-6 and were left for dead but Vince Young replaces Kerry Collins at quarterback and Tennessee has gone on to win its last five games and suddenly reappear in the playoff race. It is most likely that the Titans will have to win out to have a shot but that is more than possible as the schedule sets up great with this being the final road test of the season. The next three games are at home so the Titans are well aware of the good situation they are in. Tennessee has outgained four of its last five opponents including torching the Cardinals last week with a 532-292 yardage edge. The Titans lost the first meeting against the Colts but they have held their own in this series. Indianapolis remained undefeated with a big come-from-behind win over Houston last week and it was the fifth straight game that the Colts have flirted with getting that first loss of the season. Despite having no losses, this has been nothing special of late as it has been outgained in three of its last four games and has now been outrushed in five straight contests. That does not bode well for this week playing against the best running back in the NFL and the second best running team in the league. The Titans were held to 90 yards on 21 carries (4.3 ypc) in that first meeting while Chris Johnson has only 34 yards on nine carries (3.8 ypc) and that was his worst game of the season. Since then, he has gained 128 or more yards in six straight games and he will make up for that first effort here. The Colts have improved on run defense over the past few years but can still struggle when faced with a strong ground game. On the other side, getting to Peyton Manning is a must and that is done with blitzing, something Titans defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil has been doing more of as of late. Tennessee falls into a great revenge situation. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a home loss against opponent and with a losing record on the season but with a winning percentage greater than .400. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just -0.3 ppg. 9* Tennessee Titans
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12-06-09 | New Orleans Saints v. Washington Redskins +10 | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show |
Everybody saw New Orleans on Monday night as it easily took out New England as Drew Brees was machine-like. Now it is off to Washington in what amounts to a huge letdown game for the Saints. We saw this the last time when New Orleans won a big spotlight game on Monday night against Atlanta and it came back the following Sunday and laid an egg against Carolina despite the final margin of 10 points over the Panthers. That was at home and this one is on the road off the carpet yet the Saints are pushing double-digits and the public is living it still. As of Friday morning, 78 percent of the 17,000 wagers have been put on the road team. Washington has certainly had its run of bad breaks and close calls but there is no quit in this team. The Redskins lost its second straight game on the road by less than a field goal and it has been that story all season. Washington has lost six games by a possession or less and its average scoring margin on the season is only -3.1 ppg yet it is getting a huge amount of points in its return home. While this game may mean little coming off two straight division games, I think it is just the opposite as the Redskins want nothing more than to play spoiler and end the Saints perfect season. Washington has outgained eight of its last 10 opponents so it is obviously doing something right, just not catching the breaks. The Redskins offense has been more productive since Sherm Lewis came back and started working with the unit. The key for Washington is pretty simple and that is run the ball which shortens the game and keeps the Saints offense off the field. New Orleans is allowing 4.6 ypc which is 26th in the NFL and it is 4.8 ypc over the last three games. The Redskins are beat up at running back but that is often the time when a team picks it up and the opposition sits back a little bit thinking the challenge won
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12-06-09 | St. Louis Rams +9.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
I find it rather strange that the Bears have lost six of their last seven games, are out of the playoff race and are laying this many points to a team that has been getting better as the season progresses. And the public is buying into it. Chicago lost its fourth straight game last week at Minnesota and this team has tossed in for the season especially after that Vikings game. The Bears have defeated the teams it has supposed to (Detroit, Cleveland and Seattle) but those games were when the playoffs were a possibility and while the Rams fit into that grouping, this is just bad timing. With rival Green Bay on deck, this is a big divisional sandwich. The Rams have been improving as they have outgained three of their last four opponents after getting outgained in six of their first seven games. Granted the last three games have been at home and that will make for a tough travel situation but St. Louis is playing with confidence and it goes into this game knowing it can win. Quarterback Kyle Boller played ok last week in his first action in five weeks and he should be better with that game under his belt. The Rams will be turning to Steven Jackson once again who is second in the NFL with 1,120 rushing yards and he will face a Bears defense that has been outrushed in three of their last four games. The Bears will be without linebacker Lance Briggs who sprained his knee last week against the Vikings. That severely hurts an already floundering defense. While the Jay Cutler struggles gets the attention, it is the defense that has been struggling the most. Football Outsiders ranks the Bears 21st in defensive efficiency this season, a perfectly mediocre balance of 22nd in pass defense and 21st in rush defense. Of the teams below them, only Atlanta and Jacksonville have shots at the playoffs, and only barely. The Bears are ranked 30th in third down defensive efficiency largely because of an inconsistent pass rush. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a losing record while the Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The Rams fall into a solid passing situation. Play on road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.3 and 5.9 ypa going up against a team that is allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa after allowing 4.5 or less ypa last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 198 with the average point differential being just -1.8 ppg. 7* St. Louis Rams
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12-03-09 | New York Jets -3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 49 h 35 m | Show |
**8** NFL THURSDAY PRIMETIME **25-12 RUN** I thought the Jets were as good as dead entering last week but they won over Carolina at home and no other team that was sitting at 6-4 was able to gain any more ground. So here the Jets are only a game behind Jacksonville, Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the final Wild Card spot. They are tied with three other teams at 5-6 so it won
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11-30-09 | New England Patriots v. New Orleans Saints -1 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
**9** NFL ESPN PRIMETIME **24-11 NFL RUN** The money is coming in on New England in this game which has dropped the line from -3 to -1.5 in most places on Sunday night. I thought this line would hold firm all the way through but we get a good amount of value on the Saints. I liked New Orleans to begin with and like it even more at anything less than a field goal but it should not matter as I expect a comfortable win here. The last time we saw the Saints in this spot, they won over the Falcons but lost the cover because of a late fumble that eventually turned into Atlanta points. The place was electric then and you can only imagine what it is going to be like now that New England is in town. As we all know, the Saints are the last undefeated team in the NFC and this late in the season, with that comes pressure. Pressure to stay undefeated and keep winning is extremely difficult but New Orleans has the makeup that it is not affecting the team at all. The Saints have hit a few bumps along the way with three straight non-covers but easily took care of Tampa Bay last week which avoided a lookahead and told us that it is one game at a time with the Saints and that is how to get through these pressure games. The Saints offense is putting up incredible numbers and the Patriots know all about that and they are moving the ball nearly as good now. This one comes down to the defense however and while you will see the Patriots putting up better statistic, that does not mean the defense is better and in this case, it is not. It may be a surprise to some but the Patriots are in the bottom third of the NFL in both red zone offense (21 touchdowns on 44 possessions) and defense (13 touchdowns given up in 20 possessions). It is the latter we are concerned about as New Orleans can take advantage as it is fourth in the NFL in redzone offense with a 65.3 percent touchdown ratio. New England only has 18 sacks this season while the Saints have allowed only 13, third fewest in the league so getting pressure on Drew Brees will not be happening. Defensively, the Saints are fifth in redzone defense, allowing just a 42.4 percent touchdown ratio. The defense is slowly getting healthy again and the return of Sedrick Ellis at defensive tackle is huge. Blitzing Tom Brady can be risky at times because he has the ability to break apart defenses that way but with the cornerback situation being thin in New Orleans, this is the best way to slow him down. The Saints have 24 sacks on the season which is tied for 12th in the league so they can get to Brady. New Orleans comes in off a division win but is now playing a non-0division game and that is sometimes a problem for some because of the letdown factor. However, when it comes to Monday night, it is just the opposite. Play on favorites that are coming off a win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. 9* New Orleans Saints
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11-29-09 | Arizona Cardinals v. Tennessee Titans -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
**8** NFL NON-CONFERENCE GOW **22-10 RUN** The road runs finally comes to an end for Arizona. The Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 on the road this season and that is impressive considering the fact that they are just 2-3 at home. I am far from sold with those road victories however as three have come against weak opposition (St. Louis, Chicago and Seattle), another against an average Jacksonville team and the last coming against the Giants despite getting outgained by 39 total yards. Not only has the road been fairly easy, it has been frequent of late. Arizona has travelled every week for the seven weeks as it has not has a back-to-back home game since October 11th when it played its second straight games at home with a bye week tossed in the middle. This marks the fifth road game in the last seven weeks for the Cardinals. After a 0-6 start, the Titans could only do one thing and that was to play spoiler. Now after four straight wins, Tennessee is actually thinking playoffs. The schedule is far from difficult with four of the final six games at home and the game at Indianapolis being the only game where it will be an underdog. A 9-7 record may not get it done but this team is doing anything but quitting. This will definitely be one of the bigger tests in this recent stretch but this team is playing with as much confidence as any team in the league and is being led by a confident quarterback in Vince Young. The offense is moving and scoring while the defense is holding and this team is looking more like the team that started the season 10-0 last season. The big factor here is at the line of scrimmage. Tennessee has been running the ball great while Arizona has not. Tennessee has been stopping the run and Arizona has not. Chris Johnson is turning into one of the most feared backs in the league and after seeing some option running last week, the Cardinals could be in for another long afternoon. The Titans have outrushed eight of 10 opponents this season and have been outrushed just once while pushing once as well. Tennessee is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of three points or less and it falls into a solid situation as well. Play on home favorites that are outrushing opponents by 40 or more ypg going up against an opponent that is between +30 and -30 ypg in rushing margin after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 82-44 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1983. Tennessee keeps it going while the Cardinals finally lose on the road. 8* Tennessee Titans
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11-29-09 | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
**10** NFL TOP DIVISIONAL PLAY *12-2 YTD* The Rams have been playing much better of late but this is not a good spot for them to be in. They have lost their last two home games by five and eight points and those came against the Saints and Cardinals respectively, two teams who lead their divisions and are a combined 17-3 on the season. St. Louis was obviously ready for both of those games but getting up and playing at a high level for a third straight week is going to be next to impossible even though this is another division game with a lot of revenge attached to it. Add to the fact that the Rams are completely banged up, including the loss of quarterback Marc Bulger for the season, and they are not going to have an easy time here. Seattle is having a disappointing season at 3-7 and the problem has been playing horrible on the road. The Seahawks are 0-5 away from home this season but to their credit, they have played a brutal schedule. They opened with San Francisco, a game that saw quarterback Matt Hasselbeck leave, and then the next four road games came against Indianapolis, Dallas, Arizona and Minnesota who are a combined 34-7 and all of whom lead their respective divisions. This is a big break for Seattle who is 0-5 against the NF
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11-29-09 | Washington Redskins v. Philadelphia Eagles -9 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
**9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *22-10 RUN* The Eagles picked up a big win in Chicago last weekend and are now back home where they will look to make it two straight wins. Prior to the Bears game, Philadelphia lost in San Diego despite outgaining the Chargers by 131 total yards so it should have been a 2-0 roadtrip instead of the 1-1 split. With Dallas winning on Thursday, the Eagles are a game and a half back in the NFC East so this has turned into a must win game especially with two more road games on deck at the Falcons and at the Giants. Philadelphia won the first meeting against Washington on the road even though it was outgained. It took big plays from the offense and defense to get it done but the Eagles will be better off this time around. Washington gave Dallas everything it could last Sunday and the Redskins fell just short. They are now 1-5 over the last six games and they are very close to being much better but have been unable to win the close games. Washington is 0-5 on the road this season and while four of those losses have come by six points or fewer, this could be the biggest test of all as injuries continue to pile up. Two of the top defenders, Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall are both doubtful while running backs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are both out as well. Even worse even though it is not making as much news is that the offensive line is completely banged up and that is not good for a unit that was struggling to begin with. The Eagles have struggled against the better teams in the league, going 1-3 against the top 16 but they are 5-1 against the rest of the NFL. Washington is just 1-4 against the top 16 including 0-2 against the top 10 and even though this series has been tight over the last few years, the Redskins could be completely out of gas here. The Eagles are 12-4 ATS under head coach Andy Reid when playing against a team in the second half of the season that has won between 25 and 40 percent of its games only. Also, they are 14-5 ATS as a home favorite between 7.5 and 10 points. Washington meanwhile is just 4-13-4 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 15 or fewer points last time out. The Eagles keep pace in the division with an easy victory here. 9* Philadelphia Eagles
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11-26-09 | New York Giants v. Denver Broncos +7 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 48 h 49 m | Show |
**9** NFL THANKSGIVING SPECIAL **NYG/DEN** The Giants somehow managed to blow a cover on Sunday as they let by two touchdowns with six minutes remaining and coughed it up, the final score coming on a Falcons touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining. New York took advantage of winning the coin toss as the offense moved down the field to set up the game winning field goal. It was a close call but the Giants escaped and snapped their four-game losing streak. The problem is now it much travel west on a short week to the thin air of Denver and if that wasn
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11-26-09 | Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys -13.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 51 m | Show |
**8** NFL THANKSGIVING SPECIAL **OAK/DAL** Seeing where the money is coming in for this game is a little surprising.
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11-26-09 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions +11 | Top | 34-12 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 28 m | Show |
**10** NFL THU GAME OF THE YEAR *12-1 YTD* Detroit is 2-3 at home this season including a win this past Sunday against the Browns in dramatic fashion. That victory is huge for confidence, momentum and just an overall feeling this team has had in a long time. The Lions did have another home win over Washington earlier this season but they had to travel the following week whereas here they get to remain home and play their annual Thanksgiving Day game where they are known to be very competitive in the right spots and this is one of those spots. Last Thanksgiving, it was anything but. They were 0-11 and playing a Tennessee team that has just suffered its first loss of the season at home against the Jets after starting 10-0 so Detroit was in a situation that no team wanted to be in. Green Bay has now won two straight games and the public will be taking notice once again and we are looking at a complete different situation as opposed to two weeks ago. I was on the Packers at home against the Cowboys but we were able to buy them low as they were off two straight losses including one against Tampa Bay. Now we have the chance to sell high as they will be overpriced, especially knowing that they win the first meeting 26-0 in Green Bay back in October. With Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh on deck, we may not see a fully focused Packers team on Thursday. The situation of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is keeping this line off the board almost everywhere but Las Vegas has posted the Packers as nine-points favorites which is a little surprising considering that they were favored by only 14 points at home in the first meeting. I say
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11-23-09 | Tennessee Titans +4 v. Houston Texans | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
**9** NFL PRIMETIME ON ESPN **19-9-1 RUN** Tennessee is out for some payback on Monday night and it could not have come at a better time. The Titans, after starting the season 0-6, have won three straight games and this team has not given up on anything yet. In the first meeting this season, Tennessee lost at home by a field goal despite winning the yardage battle but this team is in a much better place this time around. They have not lost since Vince Young took over as quarterback and nothing against Kerry Collins, but they are playing loose and with confidence that was not present on the field before. After winning seven straight meetings, the Titans have lost two straight in this series by a combined four points. A win here puts Tennessee two games back in the Wild Card race and with a relatively easy schedule to end the year, it is not over yet. The Texans are in a position to make their first ever playoff appearance and a win here gets them back into a tie for the Wild Card. They are coming off a bye week following that difficult loss against Indianapolis and even though that game ended in defeat, the Texans had some solid momentum going and the week off probably came at the wrong time. Houston is 1-3 in its four games following an off week under head coach Gary Kubiak and it is going to be interesting to see how this team responds following that Colts loss as well as playing on the big stage. Quarterback Matt Schaub has made the greatest difference in leveling the Texans-Titans playing field as over those last two victories, he has thrown for 641 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. He has the offense moving along great right now and he will have to get it done with his arm again as the Texans do not have a running game. The Titans have gotten much better in passing defense and even though the competition has had a lot to do with that, personnel changes have also been a factor and Tennessee should be better suited this time around. The defense needs to think pass first and get pressure on Schaub. Tennessee has allowed only seven sacks on the season while the rushing game is fifth in the NFL with 161.8 ypg but first with 5.3 ypc. That shows us that this is the best offensive line in football and the matchup does not bode well. Houston has only 13 sacks on the season which is 30th in the NFL and while the rushing defense has been solid, allowing 108.7 ypg which is seventh, the Texans are allowing 4.7 ypg which is tied for 28th in the NFL. That ypc average is a better indication of how the defense is really doing because they have only been run on 210 times which is the fourth fewest in the league. The revenge factor is big here even though it is on the road as the line value comes into play. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss as a home favorite with a losing record on the season. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* Tennessee Titans
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11-22-09 | Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
**8** NFL PRIMETIME ON NBC ***13-6 RUN*** The Eagles were a big disappointment last week in San Diego. After losing at home to Dallas and heading out west to avoid a similar outcome like the Raiders game, Philadelphia struggled when it mattered the most and dropped its second straight game. It was fortunate that the red hot Cowboys lost in Green Bay last week so it remains a game out of first place in the NFC East. The rest of the schedule is difficult so there is no spot for anymore letdowns and that definitely includes this week. Being favored on the road may not seem like the right line at first glace but the Eagles have been favored in three of their four road games, going 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming in Oakland. Philadelphia has outgained six of nine opponents and it has not been outgained by more than 61 yards in those three games so the problem is not overall but when the team gets inside the redzone and that is explained further down. The Bears had every chance to win last Thursday night against the 49ers but the offense stalled once again and they managed a mere six points. It was the fifth time they have scored 17 or fewer points on the season and they now have to square off against a peeved off defense that allowed 31 points last week, the second most given up this season. Chicago
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11-22-09 | New York Jets v. New England Patriots -10 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 18 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR I
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11-22-09 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Oakland Raiders +10 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
Now that JaMarcus Russell has been benched, it is an opportunity once again to take the Raiders. I took them in a similar spot with Russell at quarterback so I will definitely be taking them again in a similar situation without him in the lineup. Oakland dropped another game last week against Kansas City that it could have won. The Raiders have lost two straight games by eight points or fewer ever since getting pounded by the Jets so they have been competitive and have not mailed it in for the year. Oakland has covered four of its nine games this season including two of five at home and those two came against the two best teams on the schedule that came to visit in Philadelphia and San Diego. It is pretty clear that Oakland plays up or down to the competition. The Bengals are coming off a monster win in Pittsburgh, sweeping the Steelers in the process, and coming closer to grabbing the AFC North title. The win was actually the second big one in a row as they defeated Baltimore at home prior to that and Cincinnati is now 5-0 in the division with a change to finish a perfect 6-0 as it faces Cleveland at home next week. That makes a trip to the west coast the last thing on their minds as the division record is the first tiebreaking factor used and a 6-0 record obviously cannot be beat. When I bet against the Eagles out in Oakland a month ago, a lot of the situations were similar as we had an east coast team going west in a game it wanted nothing to do with. After Cleveland, the Bengals host Detroit so from a confidence perspective, the Bengals are thinking 3-0 in the next three games without blinking an eye. One major factor is hurting the Bengals and that is Cedric Benson will not be in uniform this week due to a strained hip. He will be replaced by the newly signed Larry Johnson whose best years have come and gone. Benson is sixth in the NFL in rushing so his absence is huge especially going up against an Oakland defense that has been killed by the run. This would have been a big edge but not anymore and it may be up to Carson Palmer to win it and he has been having trouble as the passing offense is ranked only 19th in the NFL and he is averaging only 6.9 ypa which is 16th. Oakland has been decent against the pass and it has been really good in three of the last four games. The offenses faced have been average but the Bengals have scored 18 or fewer points in five of their nine games. On the other side, Oakland will pound it and try to establish some sort of a running game to keep Cincinnati off the field on offense. Those two recent Cincinnati wins puts Oakland into a great situation. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog and that have a winning record on the season. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1983. The logic is simple in that underdogs winning two straight games are in store for a letdown and that is what we have here. Cincinnati is the talk of the NFL right now and this is the perfect time to sell high. The Raiders keep another one within reach. 8* Oakland Raiders
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11-22-09 | Buffalo Bills v. Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
**9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **68% RUN** The deadline was approaching for my weekly suicide pool pick on Tuesday as I was torn between a few teams. Then news broke early afternoon that the Bills had just fired head coach Dick Jauron and that made my decision pretty straight-forward. If you are a general manager or owner and are going to fire your coach, do it Sunday after the game and don
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11-22-09 | Atlanta Falcons v. New York Giants -6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The Giants are coming off the bye week and hopefully they found some answers as to what has been going on the over the last four games. After starting the season 5-0, New York was thumped by the Saints and it has not been the same team since then. Normally this is sign to stay away by some but I think this is the best time to play on teams like this as we get a lot of additional value that we otherwise would not receive has they been playing like they should be playing. Despite the four straight losses, the Giants have outgained two of those opponents and those happened to be the two games played at home against the Cardinals and Chargers. Arizona played a good game and deserved the win but the Chargers had no business winning their game prior to New York
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11-16-09 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cleveland Browns +11.5 | Top | 16-0 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
**9** #1 DIVISONAL NOVEMBER BET *13-5 RUN* We are seeing the same type of line movement that we saw in the Saints/Rams game on Sunday. The Ravens are a huge divisional road favorite and the public is going along for the ride yet we are seeing the line going the other way in some places. With the amount of wagers on Baltimore (47,805 out of 57,969 as of Monday morning) this line should be going through the roof but yet it is stable and that is a caution flag that we see so many times. We saw the ugly home underdog win yesterday with St. Louis and we will see the ugly home underdog Browns win on Monday night. The Browns are coming off a bye week and that could only have helped matters. Cleveland is having a terrible season as it comes in at 1-7 on the season including a 0-3 record at home. The Browns lost opening week to Minnesota and then dropped their next game to the Bengals in overtime. The third home loss came against the Packers and it was a bad spot as Cleveland was coming off a big divisional game against the Steelers. Travel has been a big issue this season as the Browns are one of only a very few amount of teams in the NFL that has yet to play two consecutive home games so they have been on the go every week. This is their first week of the season where they have been grounded for two consecutive weeks. Statistically speaking, Baltimore has the advantages over the Browns in most categories which comes as no surprise. We are going to see Cleveland take some chances on offense and defense in this game and why not since it has nothing to lose. On offense, the Browns used the
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11-15-09 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 16 m | Show |
**9** NFL SUNDAY PRIMETIME **87% ANGLES** This line opened at -3 and I thought the number would likely sit on that number the whole week but we have seen a lot of action come in on the Patriots and that has knocked the number down in some places and in my opinion we now have huge value on the Colts. As of Friday afternoon, there are still a lot of -3
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11-15-09 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers +3 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 47 m | Show |
**10** NFL NON-DIVISIONAL ROUT *10-1 YTD* Dallas is coming off a monster win last week at Philadelphia to take over first place in the NFC East and quiet a lot of the doubters that were once against on the Cowboys after a somewhat slow and inconsistent start. They are playing their best football of the season but to be honest, Philadelphia lost that last game more than Dallas actually won it. Dallas has been far from a dominant team on the road despite being 3-1 on the season. The Cowboys outgained Tampa Bay by just 12 total yards, were outgained by the Broncos in a loss, won in Kansas City in overtime and then defeated the Eagles by four points. That certainly is not impressive enough to me to put them in the role of a road favorite against a desperate Packers team. Green Bay is coming off a pretty humiliating loss in Tampa Bay last weekend and it was a game it obviously never should have lost based on the fact that it was against the winless Buccaneers but also because it dominated the field for the most part. Turnovers and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown did the Packers in despite the fact they outgained Tampa Bay 125 total yards. Green Bay is currently sitting at .500 at while the season is far from over, this has turned into an almost must win situation to avoid going 4-5 and falling far down in the Wild Card race. Many people are calling the Packers a huge disappointment but they are not playing that bad. Losses are losses and they cannot be discounted but Green Bay has outgained five of its last six opponents and the lone exception came at home against the Vikings where it was outgained by only four yards. The Packers have allowed 30 or more points in four games and allowed 17 points or fewer in the other four games. That is a huge disparity and it is obviously based on the teams they have played. Nevertheless, Green bay is fourth in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 282.9 ypg. The Packers have been solid both against the rush and the pass so there has not been a glaring weakness at all. They are fourth in the league in third downs, allowing just 34.3 percent conversions and that has been due to setting up a lot of third and long situations. Dallas has been clicking off offense
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11-15-09 | Philadelphia Eagles +1 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
The Eagles were thought to have been in a good spot last Sunday night against the Cowboys but some suspect play calling cost them late and they could not get enough offense going to take care of Dallas. The absence of running back Brian Westbrook was huge and he went into the latter part of the week as likely playing but then was inactive after some late consultations. He is going to be back this week and the offense will benefit from it. Philadelphia was flying high with two straight wins before the Dallas game and for some reason when this team gets on a run, it falls apart. Look at the Raiders game this season as proof of that and it has been the case for years. At the same time when it looks like this team is down, the Eagles step up and make everyone believers again. The first trip to the west coast was not good as it lost to Oakland as mentioned but that was a horrendous spot for the Eagles. This one is completely different. Head coach Andy Reid is 9-4 ATS on the west coast so that Raiders game is a complete aberration. The Chargers were a Giants holding penalty away from losing last week in New York. The Giants had a first-and-goal at the four-yard line but a holding penalty knocked them back and they were forced to kick a field goal. That allowed San Diego, down only six points, to move down the field in the final two minutes and score the winning touchdown. That can provide a spark no doubt but it can also spell a letdown and I don
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11-15-09 | New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +14 | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
There is nothing like winning ugly in the NFL and it happened twice last week with the Buccaneers and Chiefs and this week
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11-15-09 | Atlanta Falcons -1 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
I have ridden Carolina quite a bit this season and it has been a roller coaster of a ride. The Panthers started the season 0-4 ATS but have covered three of the last four including each of the last two weeks. That being said, the value is now gone. They are catching points at home in a division game which is always a great proposition but right now it is under a field goal and that actually turns the value in the other direction. This is another spot where the pubic is all over the road team but the line has actually come down. I would normally look hard at the home team but there are too many things going against Carolina here that have nothing to do with the line movement that won
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11-09-09 | Pittsburgh Steelers -1 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
**9** AFC GAME OF THE MONTH **4-1 SUNDAY** The Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season last week in Baltimore. It certainly was not a pretty loss as they were dominated pretty well and the physicality of the game easily went to the side of the Ravens. This week it will be a very similar opponent and Denver will have to be more physical to compete. Denver has been the surprise team in the NFL this season but it still does not seem to be getting a whole lot of respect as it comes in as a home underdog once again, the third time in four games that has happened. The Broncos won the first two instances but both of those games could have gone either way and the matchup here are far less in their favor in this one. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week and that could be considered good or bad. The Steelers had won four straight games prior to the week off so it can be argued that some momentum from that run has been lost. On the flip side, the time off enabled Pittsburgh to rest some of its injuries and that can be more important in a lot of cases. The Steelers have been average coming off a bye week but there is a good lesson to be learned and that is the fact that it went to Denver two years ago following a bye and lost by a field goal in another primetime matchup. We will see a lot of the no-huddle offense from the Steelers tonight as the Broncos were exposed by it last week against Baltimore. The Ravens repeatedly kept the Broncos off balance by forcing them to keep their base defense on the field and preventing them from substituting situationally. Using a no-huddle in Denver might help the Steelers get their running game going because it wouldn't allow the Broncos to get extra defensive backs onto the field on certain plays. Because of the thin air, it is different playing in Denver but Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians said he won't let the altitude affect his play-calling, or whether the Steelers use the no-huddle. The Denver offense showed its problems last week against Baltimore as the offensive line had a difficult time blocking that defensive line of the Ravens. That will only get worse this week. The Broncos ran for only 66 yards on 19 carries (3.5 ypc) and now they will face the NFL
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11-08-09 | Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 60 m | Show |
**9** NFL SUNDAY PRIMETIME **83% ANGLES** The Eagles look great in this spot. With the exception of a dud tossed up in Oakland, the Eagles have been rolling along for the most part but that spot was one that Philadelphia was in definite trouble in as it was coming off three straight home games with three division games on deck. They were outgained in that Raiders game and they were actually outgained against the Redskins the next week but made up for it with big plays and an advantageous defense that turned turnovers into 13 points. Philadelphia steamrolled the Giants last week and the question remains are the Eagles are that good or are the Giants not that good? I think it is a bit of both and Philadelphia takes over the division lead after Sunday. Dallas has been great over the last three games but now comes its first true road test of the season. Two of those road games were at Tampa Bay and Kansas City so those definitely do not count and while the other came at Denver, I think the Broncos were playing over their heads at the time and this could be the start of a downward spiral for Denver. The Cowboys offense has averaged 33.7 ppg and 424.7 ypg over the last three games but those games came against defenses ranked 30th, 29th and 14th. They have faced three defenses in the top 10 and put up 31, 21 and 10 points for an average of 20.7 ppg which isn
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11-08-09 | Tennessee Titans +4.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 0 m | Show |
This is an interesting matchup and an even more interesting line. The number opened at -5.5 and despite 70 percent of the action as of Friday afternoon coming in on the 49ers, the line has gone down. It is no surprise that the public is all over San Francisco after its solid effort last week and now playing a team with just one win but the reverse line movement is telling us to go the other way. There are several other reasons as well. After a promising start, things are falling apart in San Francisco. After getting hammered by the Falcons, the 49ers have lost two more games, albeit close ones, although they were outgained in both. They have been outyarded in five of their seven games on the season and even though they are still well within the division race, last week
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11-08-09 | Houston Texans +9 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 79 h 53 m | Show |
**10** UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR *90% YTD* After the first week it looked as though the Texans were heading along the same path of recent years of being a sleeper playoff team and then folding yet again. A lesson learned is that we cannot judge a team after just one week as since then, Houston has been on a solid run. It is 5-2 since then with both losses coming by a touchdown in games that it could have tied late and possibly won in overtime. Still, the Texans are 5-3 for the first time since joining the NFL in 2002 and if the season ended today, they would be a Wildcard Playoff team. They have outgained each of their last five opponents and are outgaining them by an average of 138 ypg over this span. This is arguably one of the biggest games in franchise history. The Colts are off and running once again as they have coasted through the early part of the schedule but it is still unclear how good they really are. The Colts are 7-0 for the fourth time in five seasons by playing teams with a combined 17-33 record. Only Arizona, who is an average, has a winning record and overall, Indianapolis has played the 30th ranked schedule in the NFL. The Colts have the Patriots on deck and while rare for this team to not be fully focused, it will be hard for them not to be peaking ahead a little bit. Last season, the Colts were the same team basically while the Texans were not as good and in the meeting in Indianapolis, Houston entered that game 3-6 and was getting nine points. This season, it has almost flipped that record around and it still getting that number in some spots. Granted the Colts were only 5-4 but that had a lot to do with the absence of Peyton Manning during the preseason which carried over into the regular season. By the time they met in that game, the Colts were at full strength and as good as ever as that win was part of nine straight victories to close out the regular season. Houston lost that game by only six points and also lost the home meeting prior to that by only four points. The offense of the Colts we all know about but the offense of Houston is quickly becoming one of the most dangerous in the league. Quarterback Matt Schaub is seventh in the NFL in quarterback rating and he is third in the league with 292.8 ypg. His 16 touchdowns lead the NFL and along with wide receiver Andre Johnson, are becoming the top pass catching duo in the NFL. The Colts are playing great on defense but again, a lot of that is because of the soft schedule and that defense could be in some trouble this week. Cornerback Kelvin Hayden's status for Sunday is uncertain after he suffered a knee injury and concussion against the 49ers while fellow cornerback Marlin Jackson is also hurt and is questionable once again. They have also lost starting linebacker Tyjuan Hagler for the rest of the season with a ruptured biceps. Second-year linebacker Philip Wheeler and undrafted rookie Ramon Humber are expected to replace Hagler. The Colts are 3-11 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite while the Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog. Add to that, they are 10-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Houston also falls into a solid rushing situation. Play against favorites that are averaging between 3.5 and 4.5 ypc going up against a team with defense allowing more than 4.5 ypc after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 75-40 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being only -3.1 ppg. 10* Houston Texans
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11-08-09 | Green Bay Packers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
People will be lining up on Green Bay following its loss last weekend to the Vikings at home but that is not the right move here. The Packers have some serious issues going on with the defense and the offensive line, both of which were supposedly bolstered before the season began. The loss dropped Green Bay to 4-3 on the season with the three losses coming against the Vikings twice and the Bengals. The Packers have taken out all three cupcake teams they have played and that helps us out here in two different ways. It has inflated this line and as mentioned earlier, it puts the public all over the road team. Tampa Bay is the lone remaining winless team in he NFL after the Rams and Titans registered their first win last week. The Buccaneers are 0-7 and have been outgained in every game this season so why are we backing them? First, as mentioned, there is a ton of value in this line as they have not gotten anything close to this number at home in any game so far this season. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and home underdogs that have had a week off have been extremely solid propositions in the past. It gives these bad teams a chance to regroup and basically get their motor running once again. Even though they have been outgained in each game, the Buccaneers have been competitive in some of their games and they have been outgained by 85 or fewer yards in five of those seven games. Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris announced during the team's bye week that Josh Freeman would replace Josh Johnson as the starter, a position held by journeyman Byron Leftwich at the start of the season. Freeman inherits an offense that's ranked 28th in the league in offense with 272.3 ypg, 24th in rushing with 98 ypg, 23rd in passing with 174.3 ypg and tied for 28th in scoring with 13.7 ppg. This may seem like a recipe for disaster but new blood means a new attitude. If the Buccaneers have one bright spot, it's their running game, which is moving along at a 4.2 ypc which shows a different story than that 24th ranked offense. Both of their top rushers, Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward are rushing for over 4.0 ypc on the season and it will be up to them to take the pressure off Freeman. The Buccaneers defense has been pretty bad and was called out this week by Morris. When Tampa Bay's leading tackle Barrett Rudd was informed of those comments, he took it personally.
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11-08-09 | Kansas City Chiefs +7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
Kansas City has had a week off to think about that poor showing against the Chargers which came just one week after picking up its first win of the season against the Redskins. Of all of the one-win teams in the league, the Chiefs are arguably the best of the bunch as they have been involved in some very competitive games and their -10.9 ppg scoring average is skewed because of only two bad games. The defense has actually improved its scoring since the start of the season despite giving up 37 points to the Chargers in that last game. Jacksonville is coming off its third straight horrendous game. It was hammered in Seattle and then was taken into overtime by the Rams prior to its bye week. Last week the Jaguars gave Tennessee its first win of the season so the time off certainly did not help. Yes they come into this game as large favorites despite being only two games better than Kansas City. The public is still holding out hope however as close to 70 percent of the over 10,000 wagers have been placed on Jacksonville yet the line has not moved and it has actually come down in some places. The Kansas City offensive line has been a liability all season long. The Chiefs have struggled running the ball and their 27 sacks allowed are second worst in football. The good news here is that they matchup against a defensive line that might actually be worse so the matchups are on the side of Kansas City. The Jaguars are allowing 128.3 ypg on 4.3 ypc on the season but that jumps to 167.7 ypg and 4.7 ypg over the last three games. The Chiefs are without running back Larry Johnson but I think he is well past his prime and his replacement is Jamaal Charles who has the ability to be a better runner. He is averaging 5.0 ypc after averaging 5.3 ypc last season. To top it off, the Jaguars have only five sacks this season, worst in the NFL and that means Matt Cassel may finally be able to avoid pressure and put together a solid game similar to the game against the Cowboys. Jacksonville can have success if it runs the ball and gives it to Maurice Jones-Drew but it does not do that on a consistent basis and who knows what the game plan will be here. Look for Chiefs defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast to dial up a lot of run blitzes as the Chiefs try to plug the running lanes and limit Jacksonville's ground game. The Chiefs are giving up 7.6 yards per play through the air, fourth most in the NFL, and are struggling when it comes to mounting any kind of pass rush from their defensive line. To their credit, they have faced the likes of Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb and Joe Flacco. I think it is safe to say that Garrard does not fall into that group so there is not a lot of concern with the passing defense. Kansas City falls into a nice situation based on the Jaguars last game. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss by 10 or more points against going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 46-16 ATS (74.2 percent) since 1983. 7* Kansas City Chiefs
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11-02-09 | Atlanta Falcons +12 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
**10** NFL TOP MNF NOVEMBER PLAY *89% YTD* This line has gotten out of control. The Saints opened as nine-point favorites but the line has gone up to as much as -12 in some places and may not sop there. New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 both straight up and against the number and that makes it a very public play. Of the over 77,000 wagers on this game on Monday morning, 60 percent of the action is on the Saints and that will only go up by gametime. The Saints have won games in different ways this season and last weekend was the biggest comeback of the season as they outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter to pull out an improbable victory. It is Week Eight but this is the first divisional game of the season for New Orleans. The Falcons are coming off another poor performance last week against the Cowboys and they have now been outgained in four of their last five games. Despite this, Atlanta is 4-2 on the season and trails the Saints by just two games in the NFC South so a win here is huge. While a lot of people are thinking this is going to be a shootout, that is the last things that the Falcons want. They will be content to play a possession game and use the running game to their advantage if they can get it going. Atlanta is 9-0, when running back Michael Turner rushes for over 100 yards in a game. The Falcons had one of the most productive offenses in the league last year during their 11-5 playoff run last season and definitely made a major upgrade in the offseason by adding multiple-time Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez has given second-year quarterback Matt Ryan another steady target over the middle, a void that was left when Algee Crumpler left Atlanta for Tennessee before Ryan
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11-01-09 | Carolina Panthers +11 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 34-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
I said Monday that I would not be backing Jake Delhomme again following another bad performance but here I am again and the reasonings are aplenty. This line opened at a touchdown and it has already gone up to double digits as the public is all over the Cardinals here. Carolina lost at home to Buffalo despite outgaining the Bills by 258 total yards but it was the turnovers that once again hurt the Panthers. There was talk this week about head coach John Fox benching Delhomme but he decided not to do it and just the talk of it should get Delhomme fired up to play better with his job on the line. The line value here is tremendous. Carolina went from laying seven points last week to getting 10 points, and probably more by gametime, this week and a 17-point swing simply is just a regular occurrence in the NFL especially when we are going from a 3-4 team to a 4-2 team. The public is all over Arizona nut just because of the Carolina struggles but also because of the Cardinals recent run. Arizona has gone on the road the last two weeks and defeated the Seahawks and Giants, two places where it is extremely tough for the opposition to have success in. Despite winning three of its last four games, Arizona has been outgained in three of its last four games and for the season it is just +4.3 ypg in yardage differential. Conversely, the Panthers are +29.7 ypg in yardage differential so the numbers have been better yet the line isn
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11-01-09 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Tennessee Titans -3 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
**9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *79% ANGLES* Tennessee is 0-6 on the season and coming off the worst loss in franchise history as it was blasted by the Patriots 59-0. That would normally be an impossible game to come back from but the Titans had a week off to figure out exactly what went wrong and to try and regroup and turn nothing into something. They caught the Patriots at the wrong time in that snow as New England seems to thrive in that stuff similar to its whitewash of Arizona last season in the same conditions. The Titans are now home and not only are they looking to bounce back from that game but they are also looking to get some revenge on the Jaguars who won the first meeting this season 37-17. Jacksonville is also coming in off a bye week after a narrow escape at home against the Rams in a game it took overtime to win. The Jaguars have not put together too many good efforts this season especially on the road. They did pick up a win in Houston but only outgained the Texans by a yard in that one. In the first game this season, they lost to the Colts by only two points but that final was deceiving as they were outgained by 137 total yards and then there was the game at Seattle where Jacksonville lost 41-0 and was outgained by 180 yards. At 3-3, the season if far from lost for the Jaguars but this is not a team playing with much fore right now. As bad as Tennessee has been, the running game is still strong on both sides of the ball. The Titans are averaging 138.5 ypg on 5.3 ypg while allowing 95.0 ypg on 3.4 ypc. Variances such as that usually lead to more wins but Tennessee has not gotten one break at all this season and that can be a domino effect. The move to promote Vince Young to starting quarterback was the right one for the Texans and not because Kerry Collins was stinking up the joint but simply because change can be good and it cannot hurt at this point. The Titans defense has been atrocious, namely the secondary that has been torched for 19 touchdowns. Jacksonville has been very inconsistent on offense and David Garrard has not exactly been dominant. Three of his five touchdowns this season came against Tennessee but the second meeting gives the edge to that defense especially when coming home. The Titans' secondary simply can't afford to miss tackles or allow receivers to get free downfield and we will likely see a lot of Cover 2 as the Titans try to keep Jacksonville from hitting on big plays. I don
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11-01-09 | Denver Broncos v. Baltimore Ravens -3 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
**10** NFL NON-DIVISIONAL ROUT **7-1 YTD** The Ravens could not have had their bye week come at a better time. After starting the season 3-0, Baltimore dropped its next three games with all of those losses coming on the final minute. Two instances against New England and Minnesota, it had chances to win but a dropped pass and missed field goal respectively ended those chances while in-between, the Bengals scored a touchdown in the final minute to pull out a big road win. Looking back, Baltimore could be anywhere from 4-2 to 6-0 but it has to deal with the cards it was dealt and move on. The Ravens are home again and look to get back to its winning ways against the biggest surprise in the NFL. The Broncos are a perfect 6-0 to start the season and that is definitely a surprise to all. Just like the Ravens, Denver could have a different record if things had gone the other way in come close games and feasibly it could be sitting at 3-3 right now. A fourth quarter miracle against the Bengals, a fourth quarter comeback against the Cowboys and an overtime win over the Patriots could have gone the opposite way in each of those so the Broncos are a fortunate 6-0 right now. Taking nothing away from the unblemished record but Denver has had too many good fortunes go its way. Coming off a bye as well, the Broncos may have lost some important momentum that it had gained throughout the winning streak. For the Ravens in their second season under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice have carried a unit that ranks seventh in total yardage and is averaging a solid 28.2 ppg. They have opened up their passing game and maintained a solid running attack behind Rice, who leads the NFL in total yardage. This offense, which used to be the downfall, is now one of the best and goes up against one of the best defenses in the league which is a reason why the Broncos have started so good. The defense last year was horrendous and something says that it is going to struggle here as this is the best unit it has seen on the road thus far. On the other side, the Ravens went 39 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher before Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson each surpassed the century mark in successive weeks before the bye. Denver does not have a running back that will be able to make it three straight although Knowshon Moreno is a star in the making. Many people will remember how the Ravens came out of nowhere to make it to the AFC Championship but not many remember exactly how it happened. They started 2-3, then closed 9-2 and won two playoff games so they have been in this spot before and know what it takes to break out of it. The Ravens falls into a great situation as well. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1983. Denver is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game while the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game. Also, Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games against teams that are completing 64 percent or more of their passes. 10* Baltimore Ravens
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11-01-09 | Houston Texans v. Buffalo Bills +3.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
The Bills have won their last two games against the Jets and Panthers to move to 3-4 on the season. Judging by this line and what the public is doing, they are getting no respect still and that is just fine by me. The last two wins have come on the road and now Buffalo is back home and grabbing points in a game it should not be the underdog in. The loss of quarterback Trent Edwards was thought to have been the nail in the coffin to this season but Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a great job in leading the offense and the confidence is once again on the side of the Bills. Three of the last four games have been on the road and this is only the fourth home game of the season. The two wins came against Cleveland and Tampa Bay, arguably the two worst teams in the league but the spot here for Buffalo is fantastic. Houston has won two straight games and is 2-1 on the road this season including a very impressive win at Cincinnati. The Bengals were in an impossible spot however as they were just coming off that huge win in Baltimore so the Texans were able to catch them at the right time. Now the ball is on the opposite end. Houston has won two straight and has a game against the Colts next week in Indianapolis. So far this season, the Texans have been favored in all of their home games and underdogs in all of their road games. That has actually been the theme for the past few years for the majority but there have been exceptions and those have not benefitted the Texans. Houston has been a road favorite only three times in the history of the Texans franchise and it is 0-3 ATS in those games, losing all of those games outright. The one thing about Fitzpatrick is that he has the ability to sling the long ball. There isn't a member of the Texans' secondary who is playing at a real high level right now and opposing wideouts are tearing up this group. Houston also has been very poor with their red zone defense. Receivers Terrell Owens and especially Lee Evans are still very capable of converting the deep ball. The Texans are 18th in passing defense and Buffalo definitely has the ability to take advantage. To do that it will need to run the ball with Marshawn Lynch and Victor Jackson and those two have been solid. Houston is 21st against the run while the Bills are 11th in rushing offense. On the other side it is strength against strength and the Texas potent passing game will take on the improved Bill passing defense. While it was a huge problem in 2008, the Bills' pass rush is vastly improved and it will need to put pressure on Matt Schaub who is a timing passer and can get off his game if he is moved out of the pocket. His best receiver Andre Johnson is banged up and not at 100 percent with bruised lung. Houston is just 4-16 ATS in its last 20 road games following a win so it has proven in the past to show a letdown in these spots. The Bills have not been treating their backers very well at home of late but getting points this Sunday sets up an ideal spot as a win gets the money as does a close loss as this line continues to go up. 7* Buffalo Bills
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11-01-09 | Seattle Seahawks +10 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 59 m | Show |
The Seahawks are coming off a bye week and it was probably a good time for it. Seattle was coming off a blowout against Jacksonville and had all sorts of momentum but the following week it was handled at home by the Cardinals. That loss to Arizona is not looking as bad now after the Cardinals went into New York last Sunday night and took out the Giants. Seattle has been a very average road team throughout the recent years and that includes a 0-2 record this season. However it was far from at full strength in either of those two games and that is not the case this week as the Seahawks come in healthy on offense, namely quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. The Cowboys looked very impressive last week in a home win over Atlanta. This team has been inconsistent all season long so there is not a whole lot of confidence that they can put together another effort like that. Making matters worse for Dallas is that it is in a classic lookahead situation with road games at Philadelphia and at Green Bay up next. The offense has been solid again this season but it is the defense that is the big concern. The Cowboys have allowed more points in each of their last four games and the passing defense will be at a big disadvantage here. Dallas is ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing defense and it is making opposing quarterbacks look very good by allowing a 61.5 percent completion rate and posting an opposing 90.0 passer rating which is 21st in the league. Don
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10-26-09 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +9 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
**9** NFL GAME OF THE MONTH **76% ANGLE** The Redskins came into the season as the worst team in the NFC East but the worst team in that division was better than a lot of the best teams from other divisions. They have hardly lived up to expectations as they are 2-4 on the year and in the middle of coaching issues. Head coach Jim Zorn was rumored to have been fired early this week had Mike Shanahan accepted the job of taking over but apparently he did not. On Friday, Zorn was given assurance that his job is safe through the end of the season and that is important here. With that pressure gone, Washington can now simply play football and look to turn this year around. The Redskins have played the easiest schedule in the NFL and this is the first game this season they have played against a team that comes in with at least one win showing just how easy the slate has been. Something says they get up in a big way for the hated Eagles. Philadelphia is coming off a loss in Oakland last week and I successfully played against the Eagles in that spot as they were in a horrible spot. It would have been better for us here if they had not lost that game outright as we lose some line value because of it but they are still heavily overvalued in this situation. This is the first of three straight division games for Philadelphia and while it is not going to overlook the Redskins, it might find itself in a tougher spot than originally thought. The Eagles have shined against the number on Monday nights on the road under head coach Andy Reid but those roles were as underdogs and it is extremely rare to see a heavy road chalk in the big spotlight yet it does not seem to bother the public who is all over the Eagles. What can we say about the Washington offense? They have yet to score more than 17 points this season but it has been able to move the ball at a decent pace. The problem has been finishing drives and third downs as the Redskins are one of just six teams in the NFL that have failed to convert at least 30 percent of their third down attempts. With Zorn relinquished of his play calling duties and Sherm Lewis brought in to take over, it is time to shake the offense up. We can expect to see things we have not seen yet this season from the Redskins and that will keep the Eagles defense off balance. At this point, they have nothing to lose. Philadelphia had trouble on offense last week and they now go up against a Redskins defense that is fifth in the league, allowing just 287 ypg. Granted, they have played a weak schedule but this unit finished fourth last season so it is definitely solid and not just a fluke. The Eagles have major problems on the left side of their offensive line and you can bet that the Redskins will attack with some overload blitzes from that side. Last week, Oakland finished with six sacks and it came into that game with only nine. The Redskins have a good front four that can control the line of scrimmage and could play coverage schemes on the backend which can enable some blitzing to take place but without an offense that can score a lot of points, Washington can't afford to give up big plays because they are not a good come-from-behind team. Washington also falls into a great contrarian situation. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging fewer than14 ppg, going up against a team allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just -2 ppg. 9* Washington Redskins
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10-25-09 | Arizona Cardinals v. New York Giants -7 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
The Giants went into last week as arguably the best team in the NFL but emerged as a team with glaring weaknesses on defense. I don
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10-25-09 | New Orleans Saints v. Miami Dolphins +7 | Top | 46-34 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 38 m | Show |
**9** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *80% SUNDAY* The Saints put on a show last week against the Giants and there is no denying that New Orleans is at the NFL right now. They have looked good all season and their 5-0 clearly backs that up but they are in a very tough spot this week. Last week
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10-25-09 | Buffalo Bills v. Carolina Panthers -7 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 7 m | Show |
The Bills shocked a lot of people last weekend when it went into New York in extreme windy conditions, lost their quarterback and came away with a victory over the Jets in overtime. Buffalo had lost three straight games leading up to last Sunday and it had totaled 17 points in those three contests which was just four points more than what it scored last week. Even so, the Bills have averaged only nine ppg over the last four games and overall, the offense is 25th in the NFL, averaging 291.2 ypg and their 15.5 ppg scoring average is 26th in the league. Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting at quarterback, there are people saying that the offense might open up as he is able to get the ball downfield better but I am not buying that. The Panthers have won two straight games after starting the season 0-3 and they come in with a good deal of confidence. The two wins came against the Buccaneers and Redskins, two of the worst teams in the NFL but Buffalo can certainly be placed in that grouping. The victory last week was good for one really good thing and that was that Carolina was able to run the ball and run it well. The Panthers gained 267 yards on 48 carries (5.6 ypc) and that is what this team needs to do to be successful. Quarterback Jake Delhomme had another bad game but he did not have to win the game for the Panthers and that is important as he is having a miserable season. The good news here is that Carolina can continue running the ball and should have just as much success. The running back combination of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is one of the best in the league. Buffalo is allowing 181.8 ypg on the ground which is dead last in the league as is its 5.3 ypc average. The Bills gave up a whopping 318 yards on 40 carries (8.0 ypc) and for that to happen and come away with a win is a miracle. Buffalo has been hit very hard by linebacker injuries and is fielding a makeshift group at this point. They were able to intercept Mark Sanchez five times and a lot of that had to do with the conditions and as it extremely windy and it was Sanchez
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10-25-09 | San Diego Chargers -4.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 37-7 | Win | 100 | 41 h 10 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR The Chargers were a big letdown on Monday night as they carried a lead only to let it go in the second half. It can now be considered desperation time for San Diego who is three games behind the surprising Broncos in the AFC West. The same scenario took place last season when the Chargers rallied late in the season and overtook Denver in the final month. They can use that to their advantage this season as they know no lead is insurmountable and they have a lot more time to make the move. San Diego has two winnable games before a game against the Giants in New York which makes this week and next week that much more important. Coming off two straight losses, the Chargers are in a very good spot as explained further down in the report. The Chiefs finally got into the win column last week as they took out the Redskins in Washington. While it can be said that it was a good win, it can also be said that it was more of a loss for the Redskins and I have to go with the latter. Kansas City is not a very good team and even though the last two games look good on paper (a win and an overtime loss), there are still a lot of issues going on. The offense remains a work in progress and is one of the worst in the league while the defense is still allowing too many big plays. Yes, they allowed only six points last week against Washington but the Redskins are averaging only 13.2 ppg on the season and have not scored more than 17 points all season long. The Chiefs have allowed totals of 26 points or more in four of six games so that effort last week is more of an aberration than things to come. Monday night against the Broncos really showed some offensive line struggles of San Diego as it allowed five sacks and Philip Rivers seemed to be constantly under pressure. However, the Broncos lead the NFL in sacks with 21 and the Chargers will now face a defense that is the total opposite. Kansas City has just nine sacks on the entire season which is 28th in the NFL. The Chargers had a very difficult time handling the blitz package that Denver threw at them and here, Kansas City cannot bring the same pressure. Looking at the overall defense, the Chiefs are allowing 379.8 ypg which is 29th in the league and this is a big break for the Chargers who have faced two of the top three defenses in their last two games and Denver and Pittsburgh are allowing 262.5 ypg and 275.2 ypg respectively. The running game of San Diego looks good last Monday at certain times but it was inconsistent and that should reverse itself out here. The Chargers defense has not fared a lot better this season as they are allowing 358.2 ypg which is 23rd in the league and they have gotten to the quarterback only seven times. The good news here is that they will be going against the worst offensive line they have seen this season as the Chiefs have allowed 22 sacks which is tied for second to last in the NFL. Also, Kansas City is 25th in the NFL in rushing as it is averaging only 98 ypg on 3.4 ypc and that average is tied for 26th. San Diego has had trouble against the run this year but it has faced offenses ranked 1st, 7th, 10th and 15th in rushing offense with the first game against the Raiders being the lone exception. Running back Larry Johnson is well past his prime and he averaging a paltry 2.7 ypc on the year and his longest run on the season came last week against the Redskins and that was only 17 yards. If the Chargers can make Kansas City one-dimensional by containing Johnson, they can use more defenders to flood the zones with coverage, limiting the throwing lanes available. The Chargers are coming off two very high scoring games and they have been great in this spot going 10-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. San Diego is 38-9 ATS when it gained 400 or more total yards so that is our key number this week. The situation mentioned earlier is extremely strong. Play on road favorites with a winning percentage between 40 and 49 percent on the season after two or more consecutive losses. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983 and it is a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last five years. This makes complete sense as a team that has lost two straight games is rarely a favorite in the next game, let alone a road favorite. It is telling us the team is better than that along with the fact that the opponent is very weak. 10* San Diego Chargers
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10-25-09 | Minnesota Vikings v. Pittsburgh Steelers -5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 6 m | Show |
I have gone against Minnesota the last four games, going 2-2 against the number and it should be a better record than that. The Vikings have been outgained in each of their last three games as the defense has been playing pretty poorly. They have allowed 448, 400 and 424 yards in the last three games which is horrible considering two of those games were at home and the other was against the Rams. The offense has been able to do just enough to win these games but that streak could come to an end this weekend. Minnesota has not played the toughest of schedules this season as its slate is ranked 24th in the NFL and I considering it even worse than that as the Vikings have had the luxury of playing their last five games indoors as three have been at home and the other two were in domes in St. Louis and Detroit. Now it goes back outside for the first time since playing in Cleveland opening weekend. The Steelers are coming off a less than impressive win over the Brown last week as the score indicates but they actually completely dominated that game. They outgained Cleveland by 346 total yards but only won by 13 points and it was due to four turnovers, something that has not been a real issue up until then. Pittsburgh outrushed the Browns by 49 yards and it was the fourth time in six game it has outrushed the opponent and that is important in this spot. The Steelers suffered two three-point losses on the road prior to its current three-game winning streak and those setbacks came in the final seconds or in overtime so this team feasibly could be undefeated right now. The Steelers are just 1-5 against the number and that definitely plays a role in this line and what it does for us is give us excellent line value. Adrian Peterson ran through the Ravens for 143 yards but he is still suffering from a twisted ankle and might be compromised by injury. He will still be a focus as Pittsburgh tries to keep its 24-game streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher intact. That said, the Steelers will want Brett Favre to try and beat them and while he is having a spectacular season, this could be just the defense to finally shut him down. On the other side, if Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield doesn't play, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's chances of a big day are bigger. With Winfield sidelined in the second half last weekend, Joe Flacco attacked replacement Karl Paymah and he ended up having a big day. Afterward, Flacco mentioned that he "tried to take advantage of a couple of things out there," which is another way of saying he looked for Paymah. Winfield has missed the first two days of practice this week, which is not a good sign for the Vikings and their pass defense. The Steelers are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games when playing a team with a winning percentage greater than .750 and they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after passing for more than 300 yards. The Vikings are 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 7.0 or more yppl in their last game and 1-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 7* Pittsburgh Steelers
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