Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-09 | Denver Broncos v. San Diego Chargers -3 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
**10** TOP MNF OCTOBER REPORT **6-0 YTD** Denver may finally be getting the respect it deserves but from a betting standpoint, it may be too late. The Broncos are one of four undefeated teams in the NFL and the public may finally be starting to take notice. They continue to bring this line down and this is actually the lowest line in this series in San Diego since 2004 as the Chargers have been favored by 7, 9, 9 and 11.5 in the last four home meetings. I do not think the gap has closed between these two teams for such a line difference especially when you consider that the Chargers have won five of the last six meetings. Taking nothing away from Denver at this point but now is the time to start going the other way as it is being overvalued. The Chargers, especially at home, are usually the team that gets the public backing but people do have more love for the undefeated teams. San Diego is 2-2 and it comes into this game off a bye week following a rough game in Pittsburgh two weeks ago where the defense allowed 38 points and 497 total yards. The week off could not have come at a better time however as it gave the defensive line time to rest and heal as it was tossed around by the Steelers because of injuries and being shorthanded. The Chargers should have a more sturdy rotation on Monday night against Denver, with end Travis Johnson returning from a groin injury and Ian Scott back in the mix. The other side of the ball has been a concern for San Diego, namely the rushing game as it is averaging only 53.8 ypg on the season and neither LaDainian Tomlinson nor Darren Sproles has 100 yards for the year. The challenge is there again this week against the Broncos as for a fourth consecutive game, the Chargers are playing a top ten defense with the first three coming against Baltimore, Miami and Pittsburgh. The question is whether the Chargers can run the ball against a Broncos team giving up 81 ypg on the ground, good for sixth in the NFL, and just 8.6 ppg, which leads the league. Philip Rivers is averaging 311.3 ypg, with is second in the NFL behind only Peyton Manning. Rivers has thrown six touchdown passes and three interceptions in four games, against at least two of the league's better defenses in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. He loves the spotlight as he is 4-0 with an average passer rating of 106.9 in Monday games. The gameplan will not be for Rivers to throw all night however as they are going to establish the run it is time for the reversal to take place. The Broncos have had a favorable schedule of late with three of their last four games being played in the thin air of Denver with the lone road game being at Oakland. Wins over Dallas and New England the last two weeks were impressive indeed, but again both came at home and that is a huge difference. Not only have the Broncos not won in San Diego since 2005, their five losses to the Chargers during the last three seasons have been lopsided. A loss here means San Diego will be 3.5 games out and even though it was able to overcome a bigger deficit last season, doing it two years in a row likely is not going to happen. It is desperation time and that a player
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10-18-09 | Chicago Bears v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 105 | 38 h 38 m | Show |
**8** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *65% RUN* I was on the Bears in this same matchup last season and they were definitely a disappointment as they lost as three-point favorites. This year, the line has reversed itself and for good reason. The Falcons are a team on the rise and they are showing how good they are at home. Since the start of last season, Atlanta is 9-1 at home so getting anything at a field goal or less is excellent value considering the Falcons are 7-3 ATS over those 10 games. This is a big game under a big stage but making it even bigger is the fact that Atlanta has four road games in its next five contests so keeping that strong home record intact is a must. The talk is that the Falcons defense is soft but they put up a big effort last week even though the 49ers offense is no powerhouse. The defensive line set the tone for the entire game, stuffing the run and putting pressure on Shaun Hill all day, refusing to let him get comfortable in the pocket. Even though the defensive line and secondary have had their ups and downs, the linebackers have been pretty rock solid in every game they
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10-18-09 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -3 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
**8** NFC GAME OF THE WEEK **81% ANGLES** Seattle absolutely destroyed the Jaguars last weekend to get its season moving in the right direction once again. When quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was either knocked out of the game or did not play, the Seahawks have gone 0-3. In the two games he has started and finished, they are 2-0 and have outscored opponents 69-0. It is safe to say that Seattle needs him to stay healthy. That was not the case last season when Hasselbeck was knocked out in Game Four and the season ended up being a disaster. That allowed the Cardinals to win the division with a 9-7 record and the Seahawks are extremely motivated to get the division back and it starts this week. A victory puts them back at .500 on the season and improves them to 2-1 in the division which would be just a game behind the 49ers. Seattle is 2-1 at home and was one busted defensive coverage against the Bears to possibly being 3-0. Arizona got away with one last week against Houston to even its record at 2-2. This is just the second road game of the season for the Cardinals with the first game resulting in a win at Jacksonville so this will mark the toughest road game of the year so far. Arizona has been unimpressive in its last two games as it was hammered by the Colts right before the bye and then was outgained last week at home against the Texans. It has been a month since the Cardinals have traveled and they are going to one of the toughest venues in the entire league playing a team with revenge from a season sweep a season ago. I consider the Cardinals a very overrated team but because of the Super Bowl appearance from a season ago, they are still getting too much respect from the linesmakers. Consider this, two years ago the Seahawks were favored in this game by a touchdown when they were 8-4 and the Cardinals were 6-6. At this point of the season, both teams are more like those teams as opposed to last season when Seattle was reeling with injuries and came into the Arizona home game with a 2-7 record. A healthy Hasselbeck means a very potent Seattle passing attack and that does not bode well for the Cardinals. Last season, Arizona was 22nd in the NFL in passing defense and this year it is deal last in the league, allowing 303 ypg. The Cardinals are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.9 percent of their passes, 24th in the league while putting up an opposing quarterback rating of 98 which is 27th in the NFL. Hasselbeck has a rating of 103.1 and he has a group of receivers that arguably are his best in a while. The Seahawks signed wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh and they also got back a healthy Nate Burleson, an underrated wide receiver that was placed on injured reserve last year. The Cardinals haven't gotten one sack in the past two games, and have barely even hit the quarterbacks at that so a lack of pressure will allow Hasselbeck to have a huge day. On the other side, Kurt Warner is old and he is banged up making him very inconsistent. Seattle is 10-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons. The key number here is 23 offensive points as going back to its Super Bowl season, the Seahawks are 18-4-1 ATS at home when they score 23 or more points. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of three points or fewer and the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last meetings in this series. 8* Seattle Seahawks
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10-18-09 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Oakland Raiders +15 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
**7** NFL SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT *78% ANGLES* This is an ugly and contrarian play but the value is simply too good to pass up. The Eagles are playing some excellent football right now but the situations they have been in have helped out. They have had the luxury of playing three straight home games with a bye thrown in there for good measure so they have not had to travel since opening week and now they have to head out west and play arguably the worst team in the NFL. Add to that, Philadelphia has three straight division games on deck and what we have is one of the worst spots for a team we have seen all season long. The Eagles want no part of this game and if a team is going to simply go through the motions, this is it. The Raiders are coming off their third straight loss and their third straight ugly loss for that matter. To their credit, the last two games were on the road so they are home for the first time in three weeks and while home field advantage is not what it used to be in Oakland, it is still home and that still counts for something. The Raiders started the season with a very solid game at home against the Chargers and then went on the road to defeat the Chiefs so they do have it in them to play a good game. Following three straight horrible games where they were outscored by a combined 96-16, the bounce factor tells us now is the time to grab Oakland. The Philadelphia situation only makes it stronger. Comparing last week
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10-18-09 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 48 h 43 m | Show |
**10** NFL NON-CONFERENCE REPORT *5-0 YTD* The Ravens enter this game off brutal back-to-back losses and a 3-2 record could be a 5-0 record right now. Baltimore lost in New England no thanks to a Mark Clayton drop inside the redzone as it was driving and then last week gave up the winning touchdown to the Bengals in the closing minute. Granted, the Ravens were outgained pretty heavy against Cincinnati but it was a game it could have and really should have won. It will be argued that the three wins came against teams that are not very good and while that may be the case, the win in San Diego was rather big and the two wins over Kansas City and Cleveland came by a combined 606 total yard advantage. The Vikings are 5-0 and playing at home yet are just a three-point favorite in this game. What if Baltimore actually came into this game at 5-0? Would the Vikings be underdogs? This line is one of those that don
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10-18-09 | Houston Texans +5.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show |
**9** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *73% ANGLES* The Bengals have won four straight games and are the toast of the NFL right now but this is certainly not a good spot. The win last week over the Ravens took a lot out of this team both physically and mentally. The former due to the physical nature of the Ravens style and the latter due to playing with every ounce of energy for defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. The last time the Bengals won a big game, three weeks ago against the Steelers, they followed that up with a dud in Cleveland and barely escaped with a victory. I expect the same thing to happen this week as a letdown is inevitable and it would not be surprising to see an outright loss. This line also does not make too much sense considering one of the hottest teams in the NFL is playing a 2-3 team and with a large public following yet the line has only risen by a half-point. The Texans lost a heartbreaker last week in Arizona as they blew a late lead and came up short as they could not punch in a tying touchdown from the one-yard line. A couple breaks their way and the Texans could be 4-1 right now but instead, each game is becoming more and more important and this one especially true. A victory here means Houston could be 5-3 heading into a big game in Indianapolis as its next two games are very winnable. The Texans have outgained their last two opponents and while one of those was the Raiders, it is definitely a step in the right direction. The key is consistency as it has been a tale of two halves this season so putting a full effort together for the entire game is big. Carson Palmer is obviously the heart and soul of this team as his absence last season sent the Bengals into a tailspin. While they are 4-1, Palmer has not put up great numbers as he has completed only 57.7 percent of his passes while throwing seven touchdowns and six interceptions while compiling a 76.9 passer rating which is good for only 24th in the NFL. Conversely, Matt Schaub is having a fantastic season after a bad opening game as he is completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,418 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions for a 97.9 passer rating, ninth best in the league. The Cincinnati defense has been the story as the unit is allowing just 18 ppg which is tied for ninth in the NFL. However, they are allowing 327.6 ypg which is only 17th in the league and while that bend don
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10-12-09 | New York Jets v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Miami picked up its first win of the season with a relatively easy victory over Buffalo. The schedule gets tougher now with the Jets up next, a team that suffered its first loss last week in New Orleans. The Dolphins have looked really good in both home games as the other game was also on Monday night and Miami was in it throughout against the Colts. It had edges in a lot of pertinent statistical categories and it is hoping for more of the same as the gameplan will once again to be to run the ball. There is still talk about missing Chad Pennington at quarterback but the other Chad did a decent job in his first start on Sunday. Henne was not spectacular, but the Miami offense scored four touchdowns and that's as many as it scored in the three games before Sunday. The Jets will now try to bounce back from a loss, something it has yet to do. They are definitely considered the better team here based on the line but I am not sure how true this is. Quarterback Mark Sanchez struggled in his first road game after that first one in Houston and now he will face a defense that is just as good and one that is much against the run. Sanchez has passed numerous tests already this season but this being his first nationally televised primetime game will be another test. Sanchez comes into this game with a passer rating of 71.2 which is 25th in the NFL so he is playing like a rookie up to this point. After outgaining Houston by 279 yards in their opener, the Jets have been outgained in their last three games and that is not the sign of a great team and one that should be favored on the road in a division game. The Miami running game is the strength obviously and it will look to keep doing what it has been doing and that is outgaining its opponent on the road. The Dolphins have outgained all four opponents on0020the ground behind a rushing offense that is ranked first in the league, averaging 183.5 ypg on 5.0 ypc and a rushing defense that is ranked second in the league, allowing 61 ypg on 2.9 ypc. Those are advantages any team would take and especially one with a quarterback making only his second start ever. In the game last Sunday, the Dolphins held the ball for 37:09 to Buffalo
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10-11-09 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +4.5 | Top | 31-9 | Loss | -105 | 83 h 31 m | Show |
**7** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *66% RUN* I have gotten burned with the Titans for the last two weeks as have many people as it is hard to fathom that they have started this season 0-4. While taking them again here may seem like chasing, it is not that at all as this situation is too good to overlook. First and foremost, Tennessee
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10-11-09 | Atlanta Falcons +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 79 h 31 m | Show |
**8** NFC GAME OF THE MONTH **83% ANGLES** Atlanta comes into this game off a bye week and that probably came at just the right time even though it is so early in the season. The Falcons have been struggling despite a 2-1 record. They were able to handle the Dolphins in Week One but they have been outgained in each of their last two games including getting outyarded by 188 yards at New England two weeks ago. They were nearly doubled up in time of possession in that game against the Patriots and it is hard to compete when that happens. Atlanta catches San Francisco at a good time and even in a west coast game, the Falcons have plenty of edges. The 49ers rolled last week against the Rams but they totaled only 228 total yards on offense and that won
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10-11-09 | Cincinnati +9 v. Baltimore | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 76 h 31 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR I went against the Bengals last week in Cleveland and that paid off as Cincinnati was caught in a tough sandwich spot after defeating the Steelers in Week Three and looking ahead to this game in Week Five. It was a little too close for comfort for Cincinnati as it took overtime to win but now sitting at 3-1, it is tied with the Ravens for first place in the AFC North. It is safe to say that the Bengals are getting no respect still and we can look at last year to prove this. In the second meeting, Baltimore was favored in Cincinnati by a touchdown meaning the line was based on the Ravens being -10 on a neutral field. That would make then roughly a six-point favorite on a neutral field this season so the difference is about four points. The Bengals were 1-10 at that point last season while Baltimore was 7-4 so the linesmakers are saying that despite a huge turnaround, Cincinnati is only four points better. I disagree and have this line at Baltimore -4 based on the home field advantage so we are getting a ton of value in this number. Baltimore is coming off a tough loss in New England last Sunday as it was driving for the go ahead touchdown before a dropped pass by Mark Clayton ended the comeback bid. We will definitely see a hungry and upset Ravens team looking for some redemption but I don
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10-11-09 | Minnesota v. St Louis +10 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 22 m | Show |
**8** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *89% ANGLES* The Rams are one of the worst two or three teams in the NFL and I
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10-11-09 | Washington Redskins v. Carolina Panthers -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 75 h 15 m | Show |
**7** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *78% ANGLES* Carolina is coming off its bye week and it will be looking for its first victory of the season. The last two games the Panthers have played have not been all that bad and they were in both of those late with chances to win. Unfortunately, they stepped on their foot both times and they come into this one 0-3. Winless teams coming off byes are always a solid proposition and in this case it is even better with a playoff team trying to get its act together and quickly. The upcoming schedule is very favorable for the Panthers as they have Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Arizona after this before a showdown at New Orleans so a 4-3 record heading into that game is more than possible and at this stage, it will probably be a necessity. The Redskins are the worst 2-2 team in football right now. Starting the season with a loss against the Giants was nothing to be ashamed of but almost going 0-3 against St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa is something that they should be ashamed of. Coming away 2-1 in those three games was luckier than being good and this team has been on a downward spiral since the second half of last season. Washington is 4-8 since then and it easily could be much worse but for some reason, the public still likes it so we keep getting value in its lines. I wish I had taken more advantage as they have been on my against list the last three week but the teams they were playing were even worse and the situations just did not call for backing those squads. The situation here is much different however. I am really surprised how much Jason Campbell has digressed. I was pretty high on him in the preseason as it looked as though he finally understood the system and what he could do in it. He has played four very average games this season with his highest passer rating being only 97.6. Let
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10-05-09 | Green Bay Packers +5 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
**9** NFL MONDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *68% RUN* I am looking forward for this game to start not because it is such a huge game but because I am looking forward for this pregame hype to come to an end. It is just like any other game on Monday night but listening to every sports show and they are billing this as one of the greatest games ever. The Brett Favre spectacle is obviously reason for this circus but there is much more to this game than that even though Favre could very well play into this outcome. He led Minnesota to a miracle win last week and had Greg Lewis not made that catch, as he was the real hero, the Vikings would be 2-1 and we would not be seeing this line. We are probably only getting a point of value but it is a big point as it crosses over the key number of three. A lot of people talk about the advantage Favre has because he played with a lot of the defensive players on Green Bay and went against them in practice a couple years ago. But exactly how much of an advantage this will be for the Vikings quarterback is open to debate. The scheme has been overhauled as defensive coordinator Dom Capers was hired and brought the 3-4 defense. Of the 11 Green Bay defensive players expected to start Monday, 10 were once teammates of Favre's but it may not make a difference at all. Capers has a number of options available to him to defend against Favre, running back Adrian Peterson and the Vikings' receivers. He actually unveiled a new form of the defense last week against the Rams because he thought it was necessary to help win the most important game to the Packers at that time. Two big players who are expected to have a big impart are cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Woodson already has three interceptions this season, and he certainly knows Favre well and the ability of he and Harris to cover receivers one-on-one allows the Packers to use exotic looks on defense. Peterson has had great success against the Packers in the past so stopping him is obviously key but let
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10-04-09 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -130 | 47 h 8 m | Show |
**8** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *70% RUN* This line seems very out of whack to me. Although, being a Sunday Night nationally televised game with the reigning Super Bowl champions hosting, it is right where it needs to be. Public action is coming in on the Chargers early in the week but a lot of that is smart money as most of the square money doesn
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10-04-09 | New York Jets v. New Orleans Saints -7 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 27 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 NON-CONNFERENCE REPORT *3-0* While many saw New Orleans as being 3-0 at this point, not many saw the Jets being 3-0 as well. New York has come off back-to-back big wins at home and this is not an easy spot it is traveling into. Both of those games at home were close heading into the final minutes so the Jets can be considered fortunate to still be undefeated. I have been very impressed with Mark Sanchez so far this year. He is not putting up big numbers but he doing enough to win and more importantly, not to lose. Now comes a real test which is quite simply the toughest road game of the year so far. The Saints have pretty much cruised in all three of their games, winning each by at least 18 points and while it can be argued the schedule has been soft, that won
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10-04-09 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins +1 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 43 h 3 m | Show |
**8** NFL FALSE CHALK MISMATCH *+19 UNITS* Plain and simple, Buffalo should not be favored here. This is a huge overreaction to the Miami injuries and nothing more. The Bills hung around for a while last week at home against New Orleans before getting torched and they were clearly in the game against New England on opening Monday night before losing that one late. That loss actually looked good for a while but seeing how average the Patriots look right now, it isn
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10-04-09 | Tennessee Titans -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -100 | 40 h 14 m | Show |
**9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *100% ANGLE* Tennessee was a play last Sunday and after coming back from a 14-0 deficit to take the lead, the Titans offense shut down and they took their third straight loss to start the season. Being 0-3 is not the way Tennessee envisioned the season to start but the Titans are a play or two away from being 3-0. They were outgained by only 37 yards against the Steelers, all of which came in overtime, and they have actually outgained both Houston and New York in their last two contests. This is definitely the best 0-3 team remaining and it is arguably better than a lot of the 1-2 teams out there. The Jaguars possibly saved their season with a win at Houston last week but I don
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10-04-09 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 105 | 40 h 5 m | Show |
**8** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *74% ANGLES* Cleveland is arguably the worst team in the NFL right now and that is what the public is relying on here. The Browns have gotten off to a 0-3 start, they have been outgained in all three games and have scored only one offensive touchdown the entire season. Why wouldn
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09-28-09 | Carolina Panthers +9 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
**8** #1 MNF REPORT IN SEPTEMBER *72% RUN* Carolina played good enough to win last week at Atlanta but it fell short in its fourth quarter comeback. More importantly, Jake Delhomme played good enough to win as he rebounded off his horrific opener which came off his horrific playoff performance against Arizona before that. The Panthers now hit the road again and because of that loss, we get some added line value. A lot actually. Basically the linesmakers are saying that Dallas is about 3.5 to 4 points better than Atlanta and while power rating may show that as well, it is a bold line shift after just one week. The Panthers game plan here should be simple and that is to pound the ball on the ground. First off, even though Delhomme played much better last week, Carolina is not going to ask him to take the game on his shoulders. Second, the Cowboys cannot stop the run. They are allowing 135.5 ypg and 4.8 ypc which is pretty bad and a lot of that damage came against Tampa Bay of all teams. The Panthers fall into a couple of great rushing scenarios as explained further down. Dallas lost in the final seconds last week against the Giants which ruined the opening of its new stadium in front of over 105,000 fans. That is certainly a significant home field advantage and the initial reaction here would be to take the Cowboys in looking for them to bounce back. That is likely what the public is going to do but backing this team right now is a dangerous proposition. Tony Romo had a horrible game last weekend and while he is capable of bouncing back, it is not going to be easy. Also, the defense has played really bad through two weeks and that is a significant factor. Comparing the defenses, we see that Carolina has allowed 33 ppg while Dallas has allowed 27 ppg. But as far as yardage allowed, the Cowboys have allowed a whopping 119.5 more ypg and that is a better indication of what we are looking for. With a defense like that, the backdoor is always wide open. The identity of this Carolina offense is the running game with backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson called 41 passes and only 25 runs against the Falcons. Williams averaged 4.9 ypc and Stewart averaged 7.2 ypc, but the flow of the game wouldn't allow the running backs to be featured like the Panthers would have preferred. The unbalanced play calling is not going to work here and it looks as though the Panthers are aware of that. The two combined for over 2,300 yards last year while punching in 28 touchdowns and that is what needs to be done this season to turn things around. Keeping the ball on the ground is the main key to winning this game for Carolina. The Panthers are 30-10 ATS in their last 40 games when they rush for 125 or more yards while the Cowboys are 7-36 ATS in their last 43 games when they allow 150 or more yards rushing. It is safe to say what will happen here is the Panthers do in fact stay with the gameplan. Two solid situations also fall into Carolina
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09-27-09 | Miami Dolphins v. San Diego Chargers -5.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
**8** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *LATE KICK* This game could not set up any better for San Diego backers. The Chargers are coming off a tough loss last week against the Ravens in a game they should have won but play calling, clock management and other similar factors prevented that. That is what we call a coaching deficiency and Norv Turner fits that bill. This game however will not come down to who is the better coach as I feel they are on an even plane in this one. San Diego will win this one with its players as this is a huge game for the Super Bowl contender that it is being portrayed as once again. A loss here means it will be heading into Pittsburgh at 1-2 and staring 1-3 right in the face after that game. The Chargers have no interest in repeating last season where they had to win out the final four games of the season to make the playoffs. San Diego outgained Baltimore last week by 163 total yards so that loss really stung and wants some payback. Talk about being stung. The Dolphins lost a difficult game last Monday night at home against the Colts. They outgained Indianapolis by just 47 total yards and only lost by four points but the way the game played out is what hurt. Miami won the time of possession by over 30 minutes, had a 27-14 edge in first downs and racked up 239 yards on the ground. That normally should spell a victory but the defense allowed way too many big plays that the Colts took advantage of and that is a problem when coming into San Diego. The Chargers are another quick strike offense that can make the Dolphins pay for sure. The defense is fresh after being on the field for under a quarter but a short week and a trip to the left coast makes up for that as I see a really flat Dolphins team take the field Sunday. Speaking of San Diego payback, the Chargers lost in Miami last season by a touchdown but they were beaten worse than that as the Dolphins outgained them 390-202 including a 167-60 disadvantage in the running game. That is taken personally and the Chargers will be out for revenge there as well. LaDanian Tomlinson is most likely out once again but that has become a common occurrence in San Diego as he has been banged up on numerous occasions in recent seasons. He has played through the pain but it will be an advantage for him to sit out and have Darren Sproles shoulder the load. He had a horrible game against Baltimore last week but most backs do against the Ravens so we should see a bounce back here. Both Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning did a great job of moving the ball though the air and Philip Rivers is arguably even more capable to do so as he has some serious weapons at his disposal. The Dolphins are allowing 9.0 ypa though the air which is 2nd to worst in the league and big plays have come out of it. The Chargers defense has been below average at best and the game plan here is to make Chad Pennington beat them. The last two minutes of the game against the Colts showed that he does not have what it takes to take over a game and win with his arm. He manages a game well and his running game is strong but if playing from behind, the Dolphins are cooked. This is very good home line for San Diego and the early struggles to its 1-1 record have helped out that number. The Chargers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite with the line between 3.5 and 10 while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog with the line between 3.5 and 10. Also, Miami is 0-8 ATS after a loss by six or fewer points over the last three seasons. 8* San Diego Chargers
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09-27-09 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 60 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 UNDERDOG REPORT *76% ANGLE* The 49ers are in a very good spot here and getting no respect. San Francisco has started the season 2-0 and both wins have been against division and while that normally would be a red flag, it is not here. The 49ers have been reeling for years now and there is no chance they will be in a letdown or a lookahead mode in the situation they are striving for. San Francisco has a home game against St. Louis up next so it isn
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09-27-09 | Tennessee Titans +3 v. New York Jets | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -120 | 46 h 53 m | Show |
**8** AFC GAME OF THE MONTH **74% ANGLE** Desperate teams can be hit or miss but when put in the right situation, they are great plays. That is the case this week with Tennessee who comes into this game with a 0-2 record and already facing an uphill battle to get back to the playoffs. The Titans lost a tough opener in Pittsburgh in overtime and then lost by a field goal once again against the Texans last week in the final minutes. A couple bounces their way and the Titans could be sitting pretty at 2-0 but instead they are pretty much in a must win situation. Tennessee is at Jacksonville next week followed by games against Indianapolis and New England so the schedule does not ease up meaning a loss here could still give them a chance for recovery. Head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the top coaches in the NFL and it is no surprise he has been with this team what seems like forever. He will have this team ready on Sunday. This is definitely a big game for the Jets as well as they are seeking respect from around the league that they are a dominant team after a 2-0 start. The biggest issue is they are coming off an absolutely huge win over division rival New England and it is hard not to have a letdown after that game. With all of the trash talking that was going on leading up to that game, it showed how important it was for both sides so New York has to be feeling good about things right now. As does quarterback Mark Sanchez who has surprised many, myself included, with his play in his first two NFL career starts. More on him later. This could also be considered a tough sandwich spot coming off that game with New England and having a game at New Orleans on deck followed by two straight division games. Head coach Rex Ryan has put new life into this team but I just do not think it will have it this week. Sanchez is 10th in the NFL with a 91.3 passer rating which is definitely good. However, he has thrown the ball only 53 times which is the second fewest amount of attempts for any starter in the league that has started two games. It is obvious that his plan is about managing and not making mistakes. He is completing 60.4 percent of his passes which is only 20th in the league for qualifies quarterbacks. As has been the plan so far, the Jets are going to want to run the ball but that will be a challenge against the Tennessee defense that is 2nd in the NFL, allowing only 49.5 ypg and an NFL-best 1.9 ypc. Even without Albert Haynesworth clogging up the middle, they have done a great job so far. Last week against Houston, quarterback Matt Schaub had a monster game against the Titans secondary as he threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions while posting a 127.8 passer rating. I do not see Sanchez putting up numbers even close to those this week. The Jets defense is just as solid and it showed last week against New England who failed to get the ball in the endzone. It is tough for teams to put up consecutive efforts like that and Tennessee could have success moving the ball. Chris Johnson had a huge game last week and once he gets past the first line, he is as dangerous as any player in the league with his quickness. Get him going and we will see Kerry Collins have more success. Play on road teams that are coming off a home loss against a division rival in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1983. 8* Tennessee Titans
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09-27-09 | Atlanta Falcons v. New England Patriots -4 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
**8** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *EARLY KICK* I am not sold on Atlanta one bit. The Falcons are 2-0 on the season but both wins have come at home and come against teams that are still winless on the season. They easily could have lost last week or at least they were in position to give up the lead to Carolina but the Panthers squandered numerous chances. Atlanta was outgained in that game by 69 yards after outgaining the Dolphins by just 22 yards in its first game so it has hardly been an impressive run to start the season. However, because they are 2-0, we get some line value going against the Falcons in what is their first road test of the season. The travel does play a big role here as going back to the preseason, the Falcons have not left Atlanta since August 21st when it played in St. Louis. That is a significant amount of time for any team to remain at home and it will be a tough adjustment. The Patriots are coming off a loss in New York against the hated Jets and if they had won that game, this line would be a lot higher and would likely not be a play. There is obviously no letdown here and after back-to-back subpar games, New England will be ready to get things back in order. The Patriots could easily be sitting at 0-2 right now as it was fortunate to come away with a win against Buffalo on opening week. It is important to note that New England has outgained its opponents in both of those games, the Bills by 165 yards and the Jets by 45 yards and while wins and losses are what count the most, these yardage advantages show that something is going the right way. The biggest factor not going its way has been redzone efficiency as the Patriots are only 3-8 inside the redzone as they have had to settle for five field goals, four of which have been less than 30 yards. It is time for Tom Brady to get it going and this is precisely the defense to do it against. Despite being undefeated, the weakness of the Falcons is already showing. The defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL and this was the issue last season as the Falcons were 24th in the league in total defense. As was also similar to last season, it was a mixture of the rushing and passing defenses and on the road, Atlanta allowed 24 or more points in six of its nine games. New England will be able to run against this defense and that will be important for Brady to set up the passing game. No one in this secondary will be able to keep up with Randy Moss and the return of Wes Welker is huge for the passing attack even though Julian Edelman has a solid game last week against the Jets. We will see the New England of old offense on display on Sunday. The Patriots will likely need to score a lot because Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense is a solid unit and New England has not exactly been stellar on defense according to everyone. However, I beg to differ as they are actually third in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 265 ypg. This will be the best offense they have seen so far this year but I believe they will be up for the challenge in what is considered a huge game. There is not a better coach than Bill Belichick in these situations as the Patriots are 8-1 ATS when coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite the nine times he has been faced with this spot. Also, the Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 so the short numbers have been money. Finally, Atlanta is 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. 8* New England Patriots
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09-21-09 | Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
**10** NFL MONDAY NIGHT REPORT **73% RUN** The two-point victory for the Colts last week was somewhat misleading as they outgained the Jaguars by 137 total yards but struggled to get into the endzone. They turned the ball over on their first two possessions, both in Jacksonville territory including the first one at the four-yard line. Indianapolis also went 0-2 on fourth down and that really could be considered 0-3 as it also missed a field goal late in the third quarter. The opportunities were there but the Colts did not take full advantage like it normally does and that is actually an advantage on our side tonight. Miami was handled in Atlanta in Week One as it managed only one touchdown the entire game and that came with just three minutes remaining. The Dolphins were one of the biggest overachieving teams in 2008 as it won the AFC East and advanced to the playoffs before getting squashed by the Ravens. This all came after a 1-15 season in 2007 so we have to ask the question which Miami team we are seeing in 2009. The Dolphins benefited from a +17 turnover margin last year which was the best in the entire league and that likely is not going to be the case this season especially after losing the turnover battle last week against the Falcons 4-0. Miami is at its best when it is able to run the ball effectively and it was not able to do that last weekend against the Falcons who were 25th in the NFL in rushing defense a year ago. The Colts were average against Jacksonville holding it to 114 yards on 26 carries (4.4 ypc). With safety Bob Sanders out, Indianapolis is not as strong in stopping the run but I still give the advantage to the Colts based on their overall defense that gets a bad rap. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are solid in getting to the quarterback and the secondary is underrated after finishing 6th in the NFL a season ago in passing defense. Opposing quarterbacks has a 78.0 passer rating which was 11th in the league. There is talk of this being a letdown game for Indianapolis but this is a spot that has been very successful over the years. Play on Monday night favorites that are coming off a win against a division rival. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +10.4 ppg. As far as Miami, it is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons while the Colts are 8-1 ATS off a straight up victory as a favorite without covering over the last three seasons. Also, Indianapolis is solid in the spotlight, going 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday night games. 10* Indianapolis Colts
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09-20-09 | New York Giants +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 24 m | Show |
**8** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT *GAME OF THE MONTH* The Giants are coming off a pretty impressive win on Sunday over the Redskins but it was far from their best effort. They outgained Washington 351-272 but the score really should not have been as close as it was. The Redskins scored their first touchdown on a fake field goal while the final touchdown came in garbage time even though Washington was still not totally out of it. Eli Manning played a solid game and any though of his receivers being a weakness were dashed as Steve Smith and Mario Manningham played very well. The running game was a different story however. New York led the NFL last season in rushing with 157.4 ypg and 5.0 ypc but it was held to 103 yards on 31 carries (3.3 ypc). The Redskins were extremely solid against the run last season and the addition of Albert Haynesworth only makes them better so the Giants were no doubt facing a tough test. That will change this weekend. The Cowboys won impressively over Tampa Bay by 13 points on the road but in my opinion, it was far from impressive. The Buccaneers are going to be a contender for one of the worst teams in the NFL this season and they were in this game through the better of three quarters. Tampa Bay put up 450 yards of offense which is extremely solid on that side but pretty horrible for the Cowboys. Dallas cannot be giving up that type of yardage and expect to make a playoff run let alone a run in the NFC East. The Buccaneers rushed for 174 yards on 31 carries (5.6 ypc) and if they can pile up that type of yardage on the ground, the Giants could be in for a monster night. Dallas was middle of the pack against the run last season while the total defense finished 8th in the NFL making that effort against Tampa Bay even more puzzling. Last season, the Giants rushed for 200 yards on 34 carries (5.9 ypc) in the first meeting of this series and that included 117 yards on 17 carries (6.9 ypc) from Brandon Jacobs. In the second meeting in Dallas, the Cowboys held New York to 72 yards on just 17 carries (4.2 ypc) but the key there was that Jacobs did not even play in that game. The Cowboys struggle against the big physical backs. Dallas will be trying to establish the run as well but it will be a challenge. The Giants allowed 85 yards on 21 carries (4.0 ypc) against Washington which is the same ypc average they allowed last season. Expect New York to crown the line of scrimmage and make Tony Romo beat them. He had one of his best games ever against the Buccaneers as he threw for 353 yards and three touchdowns while putting up a 140.6 passer rating. The Tampa Bay defense is to blame as the three Romo
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09-20-09 | Seattle Seahawks +1.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 14 m | Show |
**7** NFL LATE AFTERNOON DIVISIONAL SMASH Seattle is coming off an easy win on opening week against the Rams and while beating St. Louis is not overly impressive, it was huge for the Seahawks. They are coming off a miserable season in 2008 as injuries decimated this team most notably at quarterback where Matt Hasselbeck played only seven games. He looked pretty sharp against the Rams as he completed over 69 percent of his passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw two picks but the positives definitely outweighed the negatives. Rust can definitely be blamed all around as the Seahawks turned it over on three of their first four possessions and settled down after that. It is important for Seattle to keep the momentum going especially after last season where it started 1-5 and could never recover. The Seahawks have tough tests coming up as they host the Bears and then travel to Indianapolis the following week so this is a big game even on top of it being a divisional battle. I am a fan of this 49ers team and head coach Mike Singletary. I think he is the right guy for the job and he can lead this team to great things once everything comes together. I just don
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09-20-09 | Houston Texans +7 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 29 m | Show |
**10** NFL #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR One of the old sayings in the NFL is even truer in these recent days of parity and that is a team is never as good as it was last week and a team is never as bad as it was last week. The latter is the case for the Texans and they are in a fantastic spot here against Tennessee. Houston also finds itself in a spot where the money is coming in against it but the line has actually gone down in places. The reverse line movement is a great way to look at a play in a contrarian way and we surely have that here. Tennessee has had more preparation time and rest for this game but in Week Two that means little. Rest is not a big deal this time of year as players would rather have the extra three days in the second half of the season when they are more banged up and fatigued. As far as preparation, there is not a whole lot to add to the gameplan that they haven
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09-20-09 | Carolina Panthers +6.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 22 m | Show |
**9** NFL ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL *88% ANGLES* I used this into in another game writeup and the same holds true here. A team is never as good as it was last week and a team is never as bad as it was last week. Obviously this is directed toward the Carolina Panthers and the latter half of that adage. The Panthers were blown out last week against the Eagles and quarterback Jake Delhomme started the season off right where he ended last year and that was by being a turnover machine. That obviously led to the Panthers downfall last week but Carolina is not as bad as that score indicates. The Panthers took a 7-0 lead on Philadelphia but the Eagles scored a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown to take a ten-point lead and that looked as though it took the air out of Carolina. The Panthers were outgained by only 98 yards in that game as turnovers were the obvious difference. I don
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09-20-09 | Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
**8** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY *100% ANGLES* One team I was very disappointed with in Week One was the Bengals. Not because they lost on a fluke play and did not cover to begin with, but because they produced only seven points at home against the Denver defense. There were chances however. Carson Palmer was intercepted twice but one of those came on the final play of the game so that can be thrown out. His other interception came in the Denver end zone which halted a drive while Bengals running back Kevin Huber fumbled at the Broncos 10-yard line on his only carry of the day. That was 14 points taken away by turnovers so with those and that huge touchdown at the end, Cincinnati could have easily won this game. It did not and that suits us just fine this week as we get line value and the public fading the Bengals once again. I was not overly impressive with Green Bay on Sunday night. They too pulled out a late win in a game it very well could have lost. The defense played solid but was helped out by four Jay Cutler interceptions as he tried to make too many things happen when they weren
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09-14-09 | Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots -10.5 | Top | 24-25 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
**9** NFL MONDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *75% RUN* Putting down double digits is tough in the NFL but I have no interest in backing Buffalo in this matchup. Buffalo clearly had some issues on offense in the preseason and it goes deeper. The Bills changed offensive coordinators less than two weeks ago and will have three offensive linemen making their NFL debuts. This situation is bad enough but when a new offensive system is put into place as well, that makes things even more difficult. Buffalo will be running a no-huddle offense in which timing and execution is everything and it all starts with the offensive line. I don
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09-13-09 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 15-21 | Win | 100 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
(477) Chicago Bears at (478) Green Bay Packers 8:15 PM ET **8** NFL SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME *74% RUN* When Chicago got Jay Cutler from the Broncos, I thought that could be the missing piece that will help the Bears get back to the top of the division as well as make a Super Bowl run. I am not so sure anymore so it will have to be a
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09-13-09 | San Francisco 49ers +6.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 55 h 40 m | Show |
(471) San Francisco 49ers at (472) Arizona Cardinals 4:15 PM ET **8** NFL DARK HORSE DANDY **86% ANGLES** Arizona certainly made headlines last season as it was about a minute away from becoming Super Bowl Champions. The Cardinals did make a great playoff run but let
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09-13-09 | Denver Broncos v. Cincinnati Bengals -4 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -101 | 74 h 7 m | Show |
(459) Denver Broncos at (460) Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 PM ET **9** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *88% ANGLE* It is an oddity to see the Bengals favored in a regular season game. They were the chalk only four times all of last season and only once in the final 12 games which happened to be the season finale against an even worse Kansas City team. Preseason does not mean a lot in many cases but for teams such as the Bengals, the exhibition season can be pretty important. They went just 2-2 in the preseason but they outgained the opponent in all four games including all four in rushing. That is a significant statistic that can be carried over into the regular season. Cincinnati was hit with a lot of injuries last season, namely to starting quarterback Carson Palmer who missed 11 full games and a half of another. He is also coming off missed time in the preseason so there is some concern of how sharp he is actually going to be come Week One. The Bengals are expected by some to turn things around with the return of Palmer along with a defense that is very underrated after finishing 12th in the NFL a season ago. Offensively, Denver head coach Josh McDaniels hurt the team by getting rid of quarterback Jay Cutler. Kyle Orton is an okay quarterback but he is not the answer here. Let
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09-13-09 | New York Jets v. Houston Texans -4 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 16 m | Show |
(463) New York Jets at (464) Houston Texans 1:00 PM ET **7** AFC GAME OF THE WEEK **83% WK1 LY** Once again the Texans are a popular choice to finally make a trip to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. This seems to be the case every year and they have yet to live up to expectations. I am in agreement that this could finally be the year. Houston got off to a horrible start last season as it opened the season 0-4 and simply could not recover. Part of the problem was Hurricane Ike that came roaring through Houston and postponed the Texas home opener against Baltimore. That meant they had to open the season with three straight road games and then came home against Indianapolis for their home opener. On top of it all, quarterback Matt Schaub was hurt and played only 11 games for the second consecutive season. His health will play a big role in the success of Houston this season. The Houston offense should be very potent with Schaub, Andre Johnson at receiver and Steve Slaton at running back. Facing a Jets defense that finished middle of the road in the league last season got even better when defensive end Shaun Ellis and linebacker Calvin Pace, the Jets' top two pass-rushers, were suspended for this game. That is a big boost for the Texans offensive line that is arguably the biggest weakness of the offense. I don
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09-10-09 | Tennessee Titans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 53 m | Show |
**9** NFL THURSDAY PRIMETIME ***77% RUN*** The 2009 season kicks off with the reigning Super Bowl Champions looking to build their momentum heading into the new campaign. Pittsburgh won a spectacular Super Bowl over the Cardinals last season and it will be in the mix once again. Tennessee, I
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02-01-09 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Arizona Cardinals +7 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 239 h 15 m | Show |
***9*** Super Bowl XLIII Winner *59% YTD!* What would this line be if Philadelphia had won last week? The Steelers -3? The Steelers -4? Considering that the Eagles were a lower seed and would have been getting fewer points tells us one big thing and that is this line is based a lot on name and history and not the actual matchup. That gives us line value and a lot of it. The Steelers are favored by almost a touchdown because they have the NFL's best defense and a history that's more familiar to bettors, oddsmakers said. The Cardinals have had two winning seasons since moving from St. Louis in 1988. Who does the public take here? It is an easy answer. I
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01-18-09 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | Top | 14-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 45 m | Show |
**8** NFL 75% ATS **BLOWOUT of the Month** Baltimore treated me very well the first two rounds of the playoffs but I think the good fortunes finally run out. Surprisingly, most of the public is backing the Ravens once again, this time at about a 3:2 rate which isn
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01-18-09 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Arizona Cardinals +3 | Top | 25-32 | Win | 116 | 147 h 21 m | Show |
**10** NFL 79% Championship Rd *TOP PLAY* After watching postgame recaps on Sunday and Monday every sportscaster, expert, analyst or whatever they want to call themselves are going with a
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01-11-09 | Philadelphia Eagles v. New York Giants -4 | Top | 23-11 | Loss | -105 | 66 h 43 m | Show |
**7** NFL 86% Sunday *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* Beating one team on the road is tough in the NFL. Doing it twice in the same season is really tough. Jacksonville did it to Pittsburgh last season so it has been done but that one came in the Wildcard round and the Steelers were without Willie Parker. The Giants have had a week off to rest, heal and get ready for their defending championship run. They certainly are not going to take this spot for granted as last season, they went to Dallas, who was coming off a first round bye, and won. That is a great learning edge.
I went against the Eagles last week simply because it was the first road playoff game in six years and the first one over the last eight games. I was far from impressed with the way they won the game as Minnesota gave them the game more that Philadelphia earned the win. It outgained Minnesota by only 49 total yards and was beaten pretty badly in the running game. If not for a Correll Buckhalter 27-yard run, the Eagles would have finished with a mere 40 yards on the ground. The defense of the Giants is not a step down in class. The Giants rested their starters in the second half of the final regular season game against Minnesota. Some may say that it was a mistake but I think it would have been a mistake if they had been rested the whole game. Instead of a three-week layoff, the players have just 14 days off which is the norm for teams with a first-round bye. With the Eagles playing a game last week, it gives them the edge as far as continuity goes. However, negating that is the travel aspect two weeks in a row. The Giants escaped with an overtime win over Carolina to secure the top seed in the NFC. New York is tied for second in the NFL with the Steelers with four wins against teams ranked within the top ten (the Colts were first with five). The one loss came at home to these same Eagles. Besides that and the win over Minnesota, the only other two Philadelphia road wins were at Seattle and San Francisco while tying Cincinnati. The Eagles won |
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01-10-09 | Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
**7** NFL Saturday 92% PRIMETIME *ARZ/CAR* I
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01-10-09 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 76 h 42 m | Show |
**10** Playoff Game of the Year *59% YTD* The action is very evenly split fir this game which is a surprise considering it is the #1 seed against the #6 seed and the line is just a field goal. That line may seem fishy and for that reason, Baltimore is the play. Actually there are more important reasons but this one is spoken of first based on just looking at the lines. The Ravens are coming off an impressive win at Miami last week and they shut a lot of people up about how a rookie quarterback cannot win on the road. Can he do it two weeks in a row?
The Ravens have a very important attribute right now and that is momentum. They have won three straight, six of seven and 10 of their last 12. One of those setbacks was a respectable four-point loss at Pittsburgh while the other was against the Giants in New York where they were outgained by only 78 yards. Baltimore is also 10-2 ATS over this span and it has the small matter of revenge to take care of. Baltimore lost by three points in the first meeting this season despite outgaining the Titans 285-210. Tennessee enters this game coming off a bye week to help rest some of the nagging injuries that have taken place over the last few weeks. However, it hasn |
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01-04-09 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -100 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
**9** NFL 82% First Round Game of the Year Everyone is all over the Eagles as they are the biggest public play of the first round. They are definitely hot and are in that lucky five seed spot that the Steelers and Giants have possessed in their Super Bowl runs. However, I am not sold on this team on the road, where they are 3-4-1 including wins over non-playoff teams Seattle and San Francisco. Any team that played to a tie with Cincinnati does not deserve to be a favorite on the road and Philadelphia does not deserve that here.
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01-04-09 | Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 27-9 | Win | 100 | 46 h 16 m | Show |
**7** NFL Sunday 76.7% SUPREME KNOCKOUT Baltimore was one of the surprises in the league this season and most notably from its offense. The days of Steve McNair and Kyle Boller and a thing of the past as rookie Joe Flacco has taken this team on his shoulders and he has performed like a veteran. He started strong then faltered some with turnovers but since Week 10, he has six touchdowns and just three interceptions. In the first meeting this year, in Miami as well, Flacco threw for 232 yards on 17-23 passing and one touchdown with no picks.
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01-03-09 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 12 m | Show |
**8** NFL Saturday 81.8% SUPREME KNOCKOUT The Chargers are catching fire at the right times as they won four straight games to complete a miraculous end of the season run to win the AFC West. While this stretch was impressive, the teams they defeated were not. Wins over Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Denver were all against teams that failed to make the playoffs with three of those teams being within their own weak division. San Diego went 5-1 within the division but just 3-7 outside of it once again proving it weakness.
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01-03-09 | Atlanta Falcons v. Arizona Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
**8** NFL Saturday 76.8% DARK HORSE DANDY Here we have the Falcons with a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback in the playoffs for the first time since 2004-05. Good for the Falcons but being favorites on the road is insane as is the fact that the public is all over them. Atlanta had a solid season as did rookie quarterback Matt Ryan but winning in the playoffs on the road is no easy task. Sure the Giants did it last season but they were 7-1 on the road during the regular season while Atlanta is 4-4 including just 1-3 against teams with a winning record.
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12-28-08 | Washington Redskins v. San Francisco 49ers -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 45 h 39 m | Show |
8* NFL 77.8% SUPREME KNOCKOUT *27-15 Run* The season is over for the Redskins and after last week, it is definitely over. Washington won a huge game over the Eagles and while that meant nothing more than bragging rights. That actually means a lot in the NFC East especially when it produced a sweep of Philadelphia. Now Washington mush pack up and head out to the west coast in a game it could care less about. No team wants to end the season on a bad note but last week
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12-28-08 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +6 | 13-0 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 12 m | Show | |
It is the final week of the NFL season and motivation is the most important factor when it comes to handicapping these games. To the average fan, the Patriots have the motivation here because they need to win in order to have a shot at the playoffs. Don
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12-28-08 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints +3 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 41 h 9 m | Show | |
If what we saw from the Saints last week, they will be out to win this game no matter what. Even though it was up big, New Orleans was still content to throw the ball and challenge calls against the Lions and why should that change here. The Saints want to end on a high note and more importantly, it is looking as though the Drew Brees record may be taking precedence. He passed for 351 yards last week and needs 402 yards to break the single season passing record of Dan Marino.
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12-28-08 | New York Giants +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show | |
The Giants have homefield advantage clinched throughout the playoffs so they have nothing to play for here while the Vikings are in a must win situation. Naturally, Minnesota has been overpriced and it is not justified. If this game was played last week, the Giants would either be a slight favorite or a pickem but because of what transpired last week, the role switches and way too much in my opinion. Despite this, the casual betters are still favoring the Vikings.
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12-22-08 | Green Bay Packers +4.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
7* MNF Primetime TOP PLAY 12-3-2 (80%) Run The Vikings loss on Sunday gave the Bears some new hope as they now trail Minnesota by just a half-game in the NFC North. It seems to be more of the public will be behind Chicago tonight since the home team is always the popular play. We are past the key number of -3 and this line could steadily rise even more by gametime. It will be in the teens for tonight
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12-21-08 | Carolina Panthers v. New York Giants -3 | Top | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 43 m | Show |
**10** NFC Game of the Year **24-12 Run** What was once a show in for home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Giants find themselves in a must win situation in order to claim that prize. Back-to-back losses to the Eagles and Cowboys have put New York in a spot it wasn
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12-21-08 | Miami Dolphins v. Kansas City Chiefs +4 | 38-31 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 4 m | Show | |
5* NFL 81.2% Dark Horse Dandy *66.7% Run* This time of year, the linesmakers over adjust lines more than usual based on must wins situations and playoff pushes. That is no doubt the case here with the Dolphins who are in a fight with the Jets and Patriots for the AFC East title and the possible only playoff spot between the three teams. Thus, the Dolphins have been shaded as the public loves to bet on these must win games. That is shaping up here as over 80 percent of the action has been on Miami in what is perceived a small line and thus an easy victory
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12-21-08 | Arizona Cardinals +9 v. New England Patriots | Top | 7-47 | Loss | -125 | 69 h 17 m | Show |
8* NFL 80% Nonconference Game of the Month Arizona is coming off a very unmotivated effort against the Vikings at home last week and the Cardinals have something to prove this week! They were actually called out in the media and they have taken that and are using it for some motivation to close out the season. Arizona is 3-4 on the road this season with all four of those losses coming on the east coast. While many will use that as a trend to buck the Cardinals again, I will be going against it based on the fact that we will see a big effort to get playoff ready.
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12-21-08 | Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 14-0 | Win | 100 | 69 h 10 m | Show |
7* 94.4% AFC Game of the Week *66.7% Run* Why in the world is this game being wagered on? Well for starters, it is still considered a heavy duty rivalry so motivation will be present on both sides but more so with the Bengals sideline. Cincinnati is coming off a rather impressive home win against the Redskins last week but don
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12-18-08 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | 31-24 | Push | 0 | 53 h 32 m | Show | |
5* NFL Primetime Colts/Jags **11-2-2 L15** Jacksonville
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12-14-08 | New York Giants +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | 8-20 | Loss | -101 | 50 h 22 m | Show | |
5* NFL Primetime Giants/Boys *11-1-1 L13* In the Redskins game I mentioned how the Portis/Zorn fracas should actually help the team come together. Well, there is a similar situation brewing in Dallas and of course, Terrell Owens is behind it. He came out publicly stating that he is being picked on and Tony Romo is favoring tight end Jason Whitten over him. Unlike the Washington situation where it was resolved right away, this one is going to linger one for the rest of the year and Owens picked a great time to come out, right before the Cowboys biggest game of the year.
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12-14-08 | New England Patriots -6.5 v. Oakland Raiders | 49-26 | Win | 100 | 47 h 49 m | Show | |
5* NFL 71% No Doubt BLOWOUT *20-10-2 Run* I was a big proponent of Oakland earlier in the week but that has since changed. Not because the sucky Raiders got suckier but because of the New England situation. It has been well documented that Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel lost his father this week and if teammates are going to embrace a player, this is certainly that situation. Take a step back to December 22, 2003 and remember what Brett Favre and his teammates did against the Raiders after his father passed away.
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12-14-08 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs +6 | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 42 m | Show | |
5* NFL Home Underdog BEST BET *66.7% Run* San Diego decided to show up last week against the Raiders for the first time in a while and now it is being asked to do it again. The Chargers are 1-5 away from home this season with that one victory coming against the Raiders who they have beaten 11 straight times. Don
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12-14-08 | Tennessee Titans v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 105 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
9* Divisional Game of the Year *20-10 Run* This time of the NFL season, it comes down to making/not making the playoffs or playoff positioning. While neither of these teams are working on positioning since Tennessee has all but locked up home field while Houston is not being let in, that angle can be tossed. Next up is motivation. With only three games left, some non-playoff teams are far from motivated in December but with Houston, we are not seeing that and these are the home underdogs you want to grab on to.
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12-14-08 | Washington Redskins -6.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 51 m | Show |
**7** NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week One can argue that the current fracas between Clinton Portis and head coach Jim Zorn will spell and end to the Redskins season but I believe the exact opposite happens. The two worked out their differences which is fine but most importantly, it showed that the fire is still alive. Portis was complaining about not getting enough touches and playing and that shows how much he wants to win and how much he thinks he can help his team attain that goal.
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12-11-08 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 55 h 50 m | Show |
***9*** NFL Thursday Night GOY *11-1 Run*People will be jumping on the home team here simply because of they cold weather factor. A dome team playing in December has no chance or at least that is the myth that is gong through the heads of the public. I beg to differ however. New Orleans has played in Chicago the last two seasons in January and December and despite losing both times, it actually outplayed the Bears in both games. With this game equally important for both sides, I see a similar effort from the Saints only this time it results in a win.
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12-08-08 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Carolina Panthers -3 | Top | 23-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
8* NFL TOP MNF Play in December *9-1 Run* Carolina picked up a big win last week in Green Bay to set up this showdown for first place in the NFC South. The Panthers were sleepwalking prior to that game against the Packers even though they had win four of their previous five games. The last two games played were on the road while they have had just one home game since October so this is a very welcomed trip home. Carolina is not only playing for first place but also for some revenge after getting trounced in Tampa Bay by 24 points.
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12-07-08 | St. Louis Rams +14 v. Arizona Cardinals | 10-34 | Loss | -101 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
5* 83% NFL Anti-Public Shocker of the Day The Rams were competitive again last week against the Dolphins which was the first time we have seen that in five weeks. St. Louis seems to have an on/off switch as it looks really good at times and then at other times, stinks up the joint. A lot of it is focus but at the same time, a lot of it is the health of their team. Steven Jackson returned to the lineup last week and just his presence alone makes St. Louis a better team. St. Louis has been more competitive on the road of late after a dreadful 0-2 start and getting outscored 75-16.
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12-07-08 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
7* Marquee Game Play of the Day *DAL-PIT* This is a really good spot for Dallas even though it is a non-divisional game with a game at home against the Giants next week. The Cowboys cruised on Thanksgiving against the Seahawks so not only was that not a hard fought game to recover from but they have had an extra three days to get ready for this one. This is far from a must win game but a loss here puts Dallas in a possible tie with Atlanta and Washington for the second wild card spot if both win since the loser of Carolina and Tampa Bay will still have the first spot.
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12-07-08 | Kansas City Chiefs +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
8* 86% AFC Game of the Month *16-8-1 Run* Denver has to be the most schizophrenic team in the NFL this season. The Broncos go on the road and defeat the Falcons, come home and get blown out by the Raiders and then hit the road again and take out the Jets in a rout. They have been better on the road this year with a 4-3 record and their 3-3 home mark makes no sense. The losses have come against Oakland, Jacksonville and Miami with the Dolphins being the only winning team. The three wins have come by a combined six points.
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12-07-08 | Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions +10 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
7* 80% NFC Game of the Week *16-8-1 Run* The Lions embarrassed themselves on Thanksgiving so why not go after them here. Detroit has obviously yet to win this season but prior to that game against Tennessee, it was playing pretty well at least as far as a winless team can play. It started against Minnesota in a two-point loss and ended with a blown 17-0 lead against Tampa Bay. In between those games were losses by seven, eight, four and nine points and it was feasible any one of those games could have been won.
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12-04-08 | Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers -9 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
5* NFL Primetime Raiders/Chargers *8-1 L9* The Chargers screwed over a lot of people last week as they came up extremely small against the Falcons it what was a must win situation. They now come back on a short week and as much as you hate to back them again, they are the right side here. Norv Turner was not fired on Monday and while his coaching has been iffy at best this season, he is a main reason to back San Diego as he was the coach of the Raiders just three years ago and he hated no one more as well as he knows how to gameplan again them.
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12-01-08 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans -3 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
**7** AFC GOW *8-1 NFL Primetime Run* Neither Jacksonville nor Houston will be in the playoffs this season after both came in with legitimate playoff hopes. This game therefore will be won by the team that wants it more and judging by the way the teams have been playing recently, that edge goes to Houston. This is the first ever Monday night game in Houston and it is a pretty big deal. Cleveland hosted a Monday night game for the first time in a long while against the Giants and easily won while last year, the Bills defeated Dallas in a similar scenario.
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