Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-19 | Air Force +5 v. Colorado | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year. Colorado is off to a 2-0 start following a dramatic win in overtime over Nebraska where it tied the game in regulation with less than a minute left after rallying from a 17-0 deficit. The Buffaloes may be a little inflated however as they were outgained in both games. The defense remains suspect and Colorado will be challenged facing the Air Force option. The Falcons rolled over Colgate in their opener and had a bye last week. Air Force brings back 14 starters from a disappointing 5-7 team from last season and the Falcons are expected to be a sleeper in the MWC. Here, we play on road underdogs that averaged 400 or more total ypg last season, after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 49-24 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (125) Air Force Falcons |
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. The country is going crazy over Maryland right now following two wins by scoring 79 and 63 points in its first two games, the latter breaking a school record for most points scored against a ranked foe. The linesmakers have taken notice as this line opened at -4 last Sunday and was bet up to -8 so the public is big into the Terrapins. While they may be improved, they are not as good as they have shown and will regress against the best defense they have seen. Temple is coming off a bye following a blowout win over cupcake Bucknell and that week off is big facing an improved program. The Owls have 14 starters back, seven on each side, and will again be in contention in the AAC. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that averaged 400 or more total ypg last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (116) Temple Owls |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston +9.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. This line opened at under the key number of seven and is now well over a touchdown. This is considered a neutral site game but it is being played at NRG Stadium so it is basically a home game for the Cougars. They bounced back from a season opening loss against Oklahoma with a blowout win over Prairie View A&M. Washington St. is coming off a pair of wins over patsies New Mexico St. and Northern Colorado and both of those were at home so now the Cougars are playing their first game on the road. While they have played no one, they have still benefitted from a +6 turnover advantage. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that allowed 425 or more total ypg, with eight or more offensive starters including the quarterback returning, in the first month of the season. This situation is 52-21 ATS since 1992. 10* (108) Houston Cougars |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. It was a disappointing opening week for both Carolina and Tampa Bay as both lost at home in Week One. The Buccaneers were the bigger disappointment however as they lost to San Francisco in a bad way, committing four turnovers in the two-touchdown loss. The Panthers rallied from a 13-0 deficit to within three points on two different occasions but fell short against the Rams. After a sloe start, the offense moved the ball great in the second half under the new Norv Turner offense and we expect that to carry over into Thursday on a short turnaround that favors the home team. Carolina is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after allowing 30 points or more last game and it falls into a great situation as we play on NFL division home teams on Thursdays coming off a home loss. This situation is 12-4 ATS (75 percent) since 1980. 10* (102) Carolina Panthers |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. A lot of talk is about how New Orleans will be extremely motivated following the controversial playoff loss from last season against the Rams. That shows the short memory these people have considering the Saints lost on a last play against the Vikings in the playoffs two years ago and opened last season with a home loss against Tampa Bay. Houston is no less motivated to get the season off to a positive start as it is also coming off a playoff loss following an 11-2 end to the regular season. This line is severely overinflated for the Saints against a team that has one of the best overall rosters in the league. Here, we play against home teams that allowed 7.0 or more passing ypa last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (479) Houston Texans |
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09-08-19 | Giants +8.5 v. Cowboys | 17-35 | Loss | -125 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Dallas has been in the news for a while now with all of the contract issues and with Ezekiel Elliott now signed, there are Super Bowl talks. That coupled with the Giants downward spiral has inflated this line. This also fits with the buy bad and sell good. Here, we play on opening-week road teams that won between four and six games the prior season. This situation is 41-16-4 ATS (71.9%) since 2004. Additionally, we play on Week One divisional road teams that won six or fewer games the prior season. This situation is 24-8-1 ATS (75 percent) since 2001. 9* (475) New York Giants |
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09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. You have heard the term buy low and sell high and a similar term exists in handicapping where you buy bad and sell good. The bad in this case is the retirement of Andrew Luck and the public completely going against the Colts now. This line opened at Chargers -3.5 then went off the board with Luck retiring and it re-opened at Los Angeles -7. Is Andrew Luck worth 3.5 points? Possibly but that is a big jump in the NFL and Jacoby Brissett is more than capable to run this offense with one of the best rosters around. 9* (473) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The public are victims of recency bias and are inclined to back the Rams because of their Super Bowl trip. They opened as three-point road favorites and despite nearly 80 percent of bets backing Los Angeles, the line remained frozen. Late this week, the line has actually come down which makes this the perfect case of reverse line movement. Cam Newton is healthy and feels better than ever. Here, we play against the defending Super Bowl loser if on the road in the season opener in non-conference games. This situation is 14-1 ATS (93.3 percent) since 1990. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers |
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09-08-19 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7 | Top | 59-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Miami fire sale continued this past week and the betting markets are making their adjustments. The Ravens opened as 3.5-point road favorites and they are receiving nearly 90 percent of bets, making them the top public play of Week One. This massive backing pushed Baltimore all the way to -7 midweek. As bad as Miami is considered to be, Baltimore is not a touchdown better, especially on the road. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that allowed 385 or more total ypg last season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (460) Miami Dolphins |
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09-07-19 | Minnesota v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 55 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Minnesota survived a scare last week against South Dakota St. as the Jackrabbits had 23-17 first down and 367-308 yard edges including 174-132 on the ground. Minnesota benefited from a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown to start the second half and had to rally to score the winning touchdown with just over five minutes left. We played against Fresno St. last week and got hit with the loss as the Bulldogs were able to backdoor the cover by scoring the final ten points of the game. Now they are back home where they went 7-0 last season and have won nine straight games. 10* (390) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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09-07-19 | Tulane +18 v. Auburn | 6-24 | Push | 0 | 52 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. Auburn is coming off a dramatic victory last week over Oregon as it trailed 21-6 late in the third quarter but scored the final 21 points including the game winning touchdown with just nine seconds remaining. That sets up for a big letdown this weekend against a team the Tigers could take for granted. Tulane is no perennial powerhouse but this is a very solid team. The Green Wave destroyed Florida International in their opener to build off their 5-1 finish from last season which included a 41-24 win over Louisiana in the Cure Bowl, their first bowl appearance since 2013. They had 28-16 first down and 545-267 yard edges over the Golden Panthers. 9* (371) Tulane Green Wave |
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09-07-19 | North Texas +3.5 v. SMU | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Saturday False Favorite Mismatch. We feel the wrong team is favored here. SMU is coming off a win at Arkansas St. by a touchdown as Texas transfer Shane Buechele was impressive in his debut for the Mustangs. This is not a great team so we cannot take much from that win. The Mean Green crushed Abilene Christian 51-31 to open their season. They have a senior quarterback in Mason Fine that is the school's all-time leader in yards and passing touchdowns. A win over SMU in Dallas will not resonate nationally like its victory over Arkansas last year did, but make no mistake, a victory would mean a ton to the North Texas program. 9* (355) North Texas Mean Green |
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09-07-19 | West Virginia v. Missouri -13.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. With West Virginia winning and Missouri losing their respective season openers, not many will be backing the Tigers here but those were two deceiving outcomes. The Mountaineers defeated James Madison from the FCS but were outgained in doing so which shows that the rebuilding season in Morgantown is already being shown. Missouri lost at Wyoming by six points but outgained the Cowboys by 148 yards as they were undone by losing the turnover battle 3-0. Quarterback Kelly Bryant, the transfer from Clemson, looked really good with the exception of one pick. Missouri will be out to bounce back from that defeat in a game it should have won. 9* (320) Missouri Tigers |
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09-07-19 | Cincinnati +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 0-42 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 60 m | Show |
09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +19.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. We played on Wake Forest last week as it pulled off a miracle win against Utah St. as it scored on a fourth and two with a minute remaining to win by three points. The Demon Deacons now hit the road where they won their final three games but not at this price. They have not been a road favorite this big since 1997 and it is not because Wake Forest is suddenly a powerhouse. It is implied Rice is going to be bad again as it has gone 3-22 over the last two seasons but this is an improving team. The Owls played very well in a seven-point loss against Army and while they bring back a lot of experience, they also brought in seven graduate transfers from winning programs. 10* (302) Rice Owls |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3 v. Bears | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Season Opening Enforcer. The 2019 NFL season kicks off with the oldest rivalry as Green Bay takes on Chicago. The Packers have a new head coach in Matt LaFleur and he can rev up an already potent offense. As the offensive coordinator in Tennessee last season, the Titans finished No. 7 in rushing offense, as the offense coordinator for the Rams in 2017, they averaged 29.9 ppg, more than doubling their average from 2016 (14.0 ppg) and in 2016, he tutored Matt Ryan who led the league in passer rating and was named NFL MVP. Aaron Rodgers has a new coach for the first time in his NFL career and even though last season was disappointing, Rodgers was exceptional. He has been one of the best at avoiding interceptions, and last season he only threw two picks. He ended up with the lowest interception percentage, 0.3, in the history of the NFL. He had one of his best games here in the opener last season as he rallied Green Bay from a 20-point deficit. Rodgers is 16-5 against the Bears during the regular season with a 45-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio with one loss coming in 2013 after he left the game with an injury after the first series. Green Bay added a lot of new names over the offseason, most notably to the defensive side of the ball as they focused on the pass rush and revamped the safety position. While we know the Bears defense is the strength, the offense showed signs of improvement but they could have trouble against a revamped Packers defense. In Week One, division underdogs are 17-4-1 (81 percent) since 2014. 10* (451) Green Bay Packers |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22.5 | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS for our CFB Sunday Star Attraction. This line opened at -26 and has settled in at -23 across most places which is big under the key number 24. Oklahoma is again in the National Championship discussion even after losing No. 1 draft pick Kyler Murray to the NFL. The Sooners new quarterback is Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts, who started the 2016 and 2017 seasons and led Alabama to a 26-2 overall record. He lost the starting job to Tua Tagovailoa in 2018 but still played in 13 games. He adds to a rushing offense as well that should be one of the best in the country. Houston lost its best defender in Ed Oliver from a unit that was already bad in the first place. The Cougars collapsed down the stretch, allowing 37.2 ppg last season. They gave up 45, 59, 52, and 70 points in four of their final five games of the year and in the bowl game against Army, they allowed 507 yards on the ground. The Houston offense is legit and in years past, that would give Oklahoma fits but we expect things to be better this season as new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch is unleashing what promises to be an attacking defense. The Sooners bring back eight starters on defense which makes the learning curve of a new scheme a lot easier to translate. Houston has a new head coach in Dana Holgorsen who comes over from West Virginia and he never could solve Oklahoma, going 0-7 straight up while failing to cover five straight. The Cougars are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games while the Sooners are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. 10* (216) Oklahoma Sooners |
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08-31-19 | Fresno State v. USC -13.5 | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our CFB Saturday Last Chance For Cash. It was a dreadful season for USC last season by its standards. The Trojans had their first losing season since 2000 and had a 19-game home winning streak snapped. They actually lost their last three home games, albeit by a combined 11 point so playing their first game in 2019 at home is a huge factor. The offense is the most anticipated one in a while as new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell comes over from North Texas and is bringing in the Air Raid offense. Quarterback JT Daniels had his moments last season but should make a big jump after taking over for Sam Darnold and he gets his top three receivers back. Normally this could be a big edge for Fresno St. considering it had a good amount of extra practices leading up to its bowl game while USC had none but the Bulldogs lost so much that it is not an edge at all here. They have just nine starters back including only three on offense and they have to replace quarterback Marcus McMaryion who had an exceptional final season as he threw for 3,629 yards on a 68.6 percent completion rate while tossing 25 touchdowns and just five picks. He also added 294 yards rushing and eight touchdowns. Fresno St. is second to last in the country on the experience chart, ahead of only Massachusetts. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in the first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with three or more straight wins. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (214) USC Trojans |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the VIRGINIA CAVALIERS for our CFB Game of the Month. The Cavaliers are starting to take big steps under head coach Bronco Mendenhall as they finished 8-5 to make it to their second straight bowl game, culminating with a blowout shutout over South Carolina 28-0. Virginia returns 14 starters, which is tied for No. 34, and this includes eight starters on a defense that finished in the top 20 in the nation last season. Also back is quarterback Bryce Perkins who is a duel threat as he finished with 2,680 yards through the air and 923 rushing yards. Last season could have been even better as three of the five losses came by four points or less including two in overtime. One of the other losses came at home against Pittsburgh by 10 points so payback will be in play. The Panthers won the ACC Coastal last season which was a surprise to many especially after getting outgained and outscored on the season. Pittsburgh should take a big step back this season as it returns just 11 starters which is tied for No. 90. The Panthers do bring back quarterback Kenny Pickett but he was far from efficient last season with a 58.1 percent completion rate while tossing only 12 touchdowns and throwing three picks. The offense especially bogged down late in the season, averaging a mere 8.7 ppg over their final three games. The experience factor and revenge factor are big time in play which is why we are not shying away from the road chalk. 10* (203) Virginia Cavaliers |
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08-31-19 | Toledo +12 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TOLEDO ROCKETS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Kentucky is coming off one of its best seasons in recent memory but the Wildcats are expected to take a step back this season. They were 10-3 last season that included a win over then No. 12 Penn St. in the Citrus Bowl but they lost a lot of key pieces to that team as no longer around are all-time leading rusher Benny Snell and top 5 NFL Draft pick defensive end Josh Allen. They lost a lot more as well as they come in as the No. 103 ranked team in experience. That makes this number pretty large given the fact Kentucky is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite. Toledo had an average season last year where it went 7-6 but the offense is expected to be better. The Rockets averaged 40.4 ppg and went over 50 points six times and while none of those came against powerful teams, they have an explosive offense that can take advantage of the short-handed Kentucky defense. The Wildcats offense was bad so they were fortunate the defense was so strong and that offense only returns for starters, the same as the defense. That helps out of porous Toledo defense that should be better or at the very least equivalent. Here, we play on road teams that allowed 400 or more total ypg last season, with five defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 61-27 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1992. The fact this is a 12 PM ET start helps the road team also as it takes away the rowdy SEC crowd. 10* (171) Toledo Rockets |
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08-30-19 | Utah State v. Wake Forest -3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Head coach Dave Clawson has done a great job at Wake Forest as he has taken the Demon Deacons to three straight bowl games, all resulting in wins which is the first time that has happened in program history. They were forced to use three different quarterbacks last season and the quarterback that led them to two underdog wins in the final two games, Jamie Newman, won the job this season. Overall, this is a pretty experienced teams, ranked No. 47 in the country, and this is a big factor early on as mentioned in prior analysis. Utah St. is coming off a very successful 11-2 campaign that included a 10-game winning streak as well as a 9-1 ATS run. That could be playing into this number and while it is as low as it is. Another reason could be the return of quarterback Jordan Love who was responsible for 39 touchdowns last season. The only problem with that is that he gets just other starter back in his offense so it could be rough early on. Overall, the Aggies are ranked No. 123 in experience and looking at the ever important offensive line, Utah St. is ranked dead last in the nation with only 15 starts along the line compared to 82 for Wake Forest which is No. 31. Wake Forest lost 120 player-game because of injury so Clawson led a total upheaval in training techniques that forced them to rebuild the Fall Camp process from the ground up which resulted in a significant reduction in injuries. 10* (148) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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08-29-19 | Utah v. BYU +6 | Top | 30-12 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. We have a quick turnaround revenge game in play on Thursday night and this is not simply a revenge play but how it happened. In the regular season finale , BYU and Utah met in the 93rd edition of the Holy War and the Cougars led 27-7 but allowed 28 unanswered points to lose 35-27 so they will be out for some serious payback. Additionally, the Utes have won eight straight meetings in this series but only one of those have come by more than one possession. BYU returns 17 starters including quarterback Zach Wilson who was questionable for this game but has been upgraded to probable. The Cougars have an experience offensive line as they are ranked No. 45 in the country in offensive linemen starts. On the other side, Utah is ranked No. 98 in this category, as they bring back only 35 starts across the offensive line. This is a huge factor early in the season which gives BYU a solid edge as both defenses on nearly the same with just over 51 percent of their tackles returning. The Cougars know that to beat Utah they have to play at a high level without costly lapses which they have experienced during this series. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a completion percentage of 62 percent or better last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (144) BYU Cougars |
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08-24-19 | Arizona v. Hawaii +11 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 57 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. The Warriors were a great turnaround team last season as they went 8-6 after going 3-9 the previous season. Hawaii returns 18 starters, nine on each side of the ball including five on the offensive line and three on the defensive line. Last year, with the move back to the true run-and-shoot, the air show went up by almost 1,500 yards as it finished ninth in the nation averaging over 300 ypg. Cole McDonald most notably returns for the Warriors, as the redshirt junior quarterback threw for over 3,800 yards with 36 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions last season. Additionally, the Warriors return a majority of their offensive production last season, as guys like Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward are going to challenge the Arizona defense immensely. This is good news come Saturday as the Arizona scoring defense finished 10th in the Pac-12, allowing 32.6 ppg. Arizona brings back just six starters on defense. Offensively, the Wildcats hope that quarterback Khalil Tate can remain healthy as he was not near 100 percent for most of last season. Hawaii brings back a lot of talent and experience on defense and that has to translate into production for a defense that could not come up with enough third down stops, getting hit for 40 points or more over a rough mid-season run of five games in six. 10* (294) Hawaii Warriors |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2 v. Rams | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our Super Bowl LIII Winner. A ton of sharp money came in on New England as soon as the line was posted, which caused it to move 2 whole points in just nine minutes. It has gone up another half-point since then and settled in at 2.5 for most of this week despite a majority of later action coming in on the Rams. There are some spots where -2 is available at a little added juice but laying the 2.5 points is more than fine as it comes in under the key number of three. When it first came out, we had a lean on the Rams but based on the sharp money reports and matchup analysis, we have shifted to New England. Covers writer Patrick Everson spoke with Aaron Kessler at the Golden Nugget about what has been happening and what is to be predicted. "We were getting one-sided action early on the Patriots," Kessler said of what prompted the move to 3, and oddly enough, the first wager that came in at that number was a low-five-figure bet on the Patriots. But that course quickly changed. "We're back to 2.5 flat, plenty of Rams money flowing in. If I had to guess, I'd say it closes 2.5." The shift to the Patriots is mostly based on how its offensive line is playing and how it has protected Tom Brady. The majority of the talking heads and gasbags claim that the Rams have the talent up front to disrupt that offense line and make Brady move but we do not think that will be the case even though the defensive line is very talented. Running the ball behind that offensive line will be key as well. Since the Belichick-Brady era began in 2000, they are 11-0 in the postseason when a player rushes for 100 yards, and 51-1 in the regular season. The Rams allow a below average 4.8 ypc. Even though they are favored, New England is still acting like the underdog and that is a big motivational factor. New England is 17-4 ATS against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while the Rams are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (101) New England Patriots |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -103 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. This line is holding strong at -3 and will likely stay on this number before kickoff. Some demons were removed last week with Kansas City as it defeated the Colts and essentially removed any pressure going forward. The Chiefs have had one of their best seasons in years and appear to have finally found their franchise quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. But in order to complete their ascension, they will need to beat the very best the NFL has to offer in Bill Belichick and the Patriots. New England has had a dynasty going for a while now yet they are only 3-4 in the postseason on the road under Belichick, which opens the door for a team as well-coached and dangerous as the Chiefs to perhaps negate that advantage. Additionally, the Patriots went 3-5 on the road this season with all five of those losses coming against non-playoff teams. w England played a near flawless game last week against the Chargers but it did catch Los Angeles in a tough spot having to play its second straight road game on the east coast in an early game. Much is being said about how cold it is going to be in Kansas City and how good of a cold-weather quarterback Tom Brady is. Those claims are pretty false however as he is not great in real cold weather (20 and under). He has completed 125 of 223 passes (56.1 percent) for 1,307 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions while posting a QB rating of 80.7. here, we play on home favorites in the second half of the season that are outgaining opponents by 0.4 to 1 yppl going up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 72-37 ATS (66.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Kansas City Chiefs |
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01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 97 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC Championship Winner. We caught a tough break with the Saints last Sunday as a missed field goal late in the game prevented a cover. New Orleans comes in as a much smaller favorite this time around but the number is significant as the half-point is big for the Rams. They dominated Dallas last week in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated. The same can be said for the Saints which outgained the Eagles by 188 total yards and shut them out over the final 49 minutes of the game. While revenge is not a significant factor in a game of this magnitude, the Rams loss here in November ended their undefeated start and they have a substantial addition this ti9me around. Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas burned Los Angeles with 12 catches for 211 yards. However, the Rams did not have Aqib Talib on the field in that game and he can be a difference maker. The Saints defense received a huge blow last week against Philadelphia, when it lost defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins for the remainder of the season with a torn Achilles. The rushing defense is one of the best in the NFL as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season, Well, entering last week, the Cowboys had allowed just three 100-yard rushers the entire season and just four 70-yard rushers. Both Todd Gurley (115) and CJ Anderson (123) eclipsed the century mark and hit 70 in the first half alone, for the Rams. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season averaging 265 or more passing ypg going up against a team allowing between 230-265 passing ypg, after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons including a 16-1 ATS record the last five seasons. 9* (311) Los Angeles Rams |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -8 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our Sunday NFL Eagles/Saints Winner. This is the first time since 2009 that the Saints have had a first round bye and with this being one of the best home fields in the NFL, this is big for New Orleans. Since the beginning of the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era in 2006 the team has a 7-5 postseason record. Payton and Brees are 5-0 in home playoff games, including 2-0 at home in the divisional round. In those five home games, Brees threw for 1,529 yards with 12 touchdown passes against one interception and his career playoff passer rating in New Orleans is 116.8. Another big reason that New Orleans got a bye was for rest purposes as the offense started to look tired down the stretch. It was actually a two-week layoff for most starters as they rested Week 17. What Nick Foles has done has been incredible the last two seasons but this is where we feel the magic ends. Philadelphia was 6-7 and outside of the playoff picture when it turned to Foles. Including the playoffs, he has now started 12 games for Philadelphia the last two seasons, and the Eagles have won 10 of them. The Saints dominated Wentz in the first meeting this season and they should do the same to Foles this week. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS revenging a road loss by 14 points while the Saints are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983 with the average margin of victory being +14.1 ppg. 10* (308) New Orleans Saints |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our Saturday NFL Cowboys/Rams Winner. The Rams stormed out of the gate with an 8-0 record but they became pretty average the rest of the season as they went 5-3 over the final eight games. With the exception of an early season win over the Chargers, Los Angeles struggled against playoff teams as it went 3-3 in six games with the three wins coming by a combined 10 points. Jared Goff was outstanding to start the season but over the last six weeks of the season, he has dealt with much more pressure, and as the pressure came, so did his mistakes. While the regression of Goff played a big part in the second half, the defense performed pretty bad as well. In those final six games against playoff teams, the Rams allowed 33.8 ppg and on the season, the Rams allowed a higher ypc average than any other team in the league. This means Ezekiel Elliott could go off again after gaining 137 yards against the Seahawks last week. Additionally, Dak Prescott kept the Seattle defense off balance with quarterback draws and sweeps and he will utilize that again in keeping the ultra-aggressive Rams front seven on their toes which will slow the pass rush down. On the other side, if the Cowboys defense plays a similar game that they did against the Saints, they can win this game outright. This is a home game for the Rams but the stadium will not be fully Los Angeles fans. A 50/50 split that some say is coming seems unlikely as the Rams' success the past two years has strengthened their hold on the bulk of locals but 60/40 or 65/35 isn't out of the question. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against teams allowing 350 ypg. 10* (303) Dallas Cowboys |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our Saturday NFL Colts/Chiefs Winner. Indianapolis has essentially won two straight playoff games on the road and now comes it biggest test as it leaves the AFC South to face the top seed in the AFC. The Colts have been on a solid run with 10 wins in their last 11 games and even though we bet on them last week, it is not a very impressive run however as eight of those came against non-playoff teams, including two against Tennessee with Blaine Gabbert. This is a dangerous team but what worked against Houston will not work here. One huge factor that came out of last week was that the Colts were able to play a soft zone and Deshaun Watson was not able to get anything going. For a team that played more snaps in zone coverage than almost any team in the NFL this season, it is not a good sign that this week's opponent was so dominant against zone coverages during the regular season. Given the design of Kansas City's offense and the weapons they have, it's not exactly surprising that zones could not stop Mahomes. The Chiefs bounced back from a pair of losses and beat Oakland in Week 17 to secure the No. 1 seed and while there is a new quarterback in place this season, they will be out to make up for last season when they lost to Tennessee in the Wild Card round after blowing a 21-3 lead. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983 with the average margin of victory being +14.1 ppg. 9* (302) Kansas City Chiefs |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CFP Championship Winner. In what is becoming an annual tradition, Clemson and Alabama will meet in the College Football Playoff for the fourth consecutive year, the third time in the championship game. Early money came in on the Tigers, dropping this number a point to a point and a half depending on the opening number. Alabama beat Clemson 24-6 in a semifinal last season, and the teams split their two meetings in the Championship game in 2016 and 2017. Turnovers were the difference last season as a pair of interceptions hurt Clemson and it has to avoid that this year. Alabama is talked about as being the most dominant team in the country, winning just one game by fewer than 24 points. However, since winning 28-26 at Texas A&M and 27-23 against Syracuse in the first month of the season, Clemson has won its last nine games by an average margin of 37 points. The closest game in that stretch was a 20-point win at then-No. 17 Boston College. the Tigers offense will want to keep the Tide offense off the field and they can definitely do that. The Clemson running game goes through Travis Etienne (1,572 yards and 22 touchdowns) and he averages 8.3 ypc while and the offense overall averages 6.7 ypc. On the other side, Tua Tagovailoa is currently not 100 percent healthy. He does not want to run the ball, he wants to sit in the pocket and throw the ball like he did against Oklahoma. The Tigers need to get pressure and try to make him uncomfortable. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games while Alabama 0-6 ATS in its last six games away from home against teams averaging 230 or more rushing ypg. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs that are outrushing their opponents by 100 or more ypg on the season. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (151) Clemson Tigers |
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01-06-19 | Eagles +6.5 v. Bears | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Sunday NFL Eagles/Bears Winner. The Eagles are back in the playoffs behind the arm of Nick Foles, who has made three starts, and a defense that has played well down the stretch. The defense has given up only 4.8 yppl in his starts (for reference, the Bears and Ravens tied for best in the NFL in the regular season, allowing 4.8 yppl), and a lot of this can be attributed to Foles and the offense in his ability to slow down the game. Facing the Bears defense will be a challenge but he was able to defeat the No. 8 pass defense of the Rams in his first start this year. We are catching an inflated number due to the Bears cover success of late as they are 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games. Chicago has impressed for sure and that defense is obviously the strength. The offense averaged just 5.6 yppl on the season and the Bears are not going to change much based on the somewhat limited Mitchell Trubisky. He has not exactly impressed since returning from his shoulder as they are averaging just 19.3 ppg and he has only four touchdowns compared to three interceptions in those four games. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against defenses allowing 90 or fewer ypg rushing while Chicago is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (107) Philadelphia Eagles |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our Saturday NFL Seahawks/Cowboys Winner. We expect to see a good deal of running the football in this matchup and the edge goes to Dallas in a strength against strength on one side and strength against weakness on the other. Seattle finished the regular season first in rushing yards per game and fifth in yards per carry so it will continue to try and pound the ball. However, this will be an excellent test against a Dallas defense ranked fifth in yards per carry allowed, led by linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. On the other side, Dallas was ranked 10th in rushing offense led by Ezekiel Elliott who gashed the Seahawks defense with 127 yards on 16 carries (7.9 ypc) in the first meeting and this was a problem for the Seahawks all season. They finished dead last in the NFL in yards per carry average at 4.9 so Elliot should have another big game. The Cowboys are 16-4 in 20 games when he rushes for 100 yards and while one of those losses was against the Seahawks, that game was in Seattle and Dallas has only lost to Green Bay at home in those 100-yard games. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and they fall into a successful situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against a team averaging between 23 and 27, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (104) Dallas Cowboys |
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01-05-19 | Colts +1 v. Texans | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our Saturday NFL Colts/Texans Winner. Last season, we saw all four road teams cover in the Wild Card Round and the big reason for that was due to all four home teams being favored by at least six points. This year, only one team is favored by that many points and we are starting off by backing the smallest underdog team of the weekend. The Colts are grabbing 62 percent of the offshore action and they are a sleeper team by many to advance a ways in the playoffs thanks to winning nine of their last 10 games. It is not a very impressive run however as eight of those came against non-playoff teams, including two against Tennessee with Blaine Gabbert, Indianapolis did have an impressive shutout against Dallas but the Cowboys were coming off an emotional win over Philadelphia. That being said, the Houston winning streak was very similar in that most wins came against non-playoff teams. The division-clinching win over Jacksonville snapped a four-game streak of getting outgained while the Colts have outgained each of their last seven opponents including a 121-yard advantage here in Houston a month ago. Andrew Luck tore apart the secondary for 399 yards and there is no reason to think he will not do it again considering Nick Foles threw for an Eagles-record 471 yards alongside four touchdowns two weeks ago. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record while Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning record. 9* (101) Indianapolis Colts |
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01-01-19 | Texas +12 v. Georgia | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our CFB Sugar Bowl Winner. Texas is looking for its first 10-win season since 2009 and if anyone can get it done, it is head coach Tom Herman who is 12-2 as an underdog going back to his days at Houston. It was a highly successful season for the Longhorns despite losing their opener to Maryland as the other losses came against Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. by a field goal and West Virginia by a point. That is what makes this line perplexing and a lot of that is on the other side as well. Even though this was a while ago, it looks like the Georgia players and coaches may not have recovered from the Alabama fourth-quarter rally in the SEC Championship. The Bulldogs led Alabama 28-14 in the third quarter but failed to score again in a 35-28 loss. While the Sugar Bowl is a nice reward for most teams, the way Georgia lost, and the double-digit line attached makes this a very difficult situation for the Bulldogs and we all know that double-digit spreads and disappointment do not go well together. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season allowing between 16 and 21 ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (277) Texas Longhorns |
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12-31-18 | NC State +7.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CFB Gator Bowl Winner. We are backing another top ranked quarterback who has a chance to show off against one of the worst pass defenses around. Ryan Finley is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and squares off against the No. 111 ranked Texas A&M pass defense. He finished the season with 3,789 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions while completing 68 percent of his passes. The Wolfpack were No. 6 in the nation in passing offense and Finley was selected to the 2018 All-ACC First Team. Bowl games are big for some teams and that is the case here for NC State which can reach double-digit wins for the first time since 2002. The Wolfpack defense put up a solid season as well and it goes up against the best running back in the SEC in Trayveon Williams who rushed for 1,524 yards, which led the conference. NC State has allowed just 109.1 ypg on 3.5 ypc on the season so they can slow him down. As mentioned, the Aggies pass defense is putrid as they allow 8.5 ypa and the Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 8.0 ypa or more. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams averaging 440 or more ypg, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (267) NC State Wolfpack |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Redbox Bowl Winner. The fact that Justin Herbert is not sitting out a bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft like other quarterbacks is one thing but the fact he is coming back next season tells a lot and Oregon can jumpstart its 2019 season right here. Oregon opened the season 5-1 and then a pair of double-digit losses at Washington St. and Arizona could have defined their season but instead the Ducks closed on a 3-1 run under first year head coach Mario Cristobal and throughout the season, Oregon to become a more balanced attack out of the pistol formation, averaging 191.3 ypg rushing to go with 254.7 ypg through the air. Scoring seven points against Michigan and six points against Ohio St. is one thing but the Spartans closed the season by scoring six points against Nebraska and 14 points against Rutgers so there is little chance to keep up here. Michigan St. is solid on defense as typical but the passing defense ranked No. 63 in the nation and they will be without the second-highest graded Big Ten corner by Pro Football Focus in Justin Layne who is sitting out to get NFL Draft ready. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 where the line is +3 to -3 off a double digit road win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 27-10 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (262) Oregon Ducks |
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12-30-18 | Colts v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Sunday Night Primetime Winner. The Titans have won four in row, and their strength is their defense. Tennessee is second in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 18.0 ppg, and they have not yielded more than 16 points in any of their past three games. Some will scoff at that four-game winning streak considering the wins came against the Jets, Jaguars, Giants and Redskins but many will forget the two-game winning streak prior to that against the Patriots and Cowboys. Indianapolis has won eight of its last nine games but half of those wins came by a field goal or less, three coming at home and while blowout wins over Dallas and Tennessee look impressive, they were at home and the one against the Titans, Mariota left the game in the second quarter. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has owned the Titans since he entered the league. He is 10-0 against Tennessee, but Luck noted this week that the past doesn't have any impact on this game and he is 100 percent correct. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after one or more consecutive wins, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 79-40 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (322) Tennessee Titans |
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12-30-18 | Bears +4.5 v. Vikings | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Vikings control their own destiny when it comes to the 2018 NFL playoff picture as they have a half-game lead over the Eagles for the only remaining NFC postseason spot. Win and they are in and if they lose, they need the Eagles to lose as well. The NFL arranged the schedule to minimize the anticlimactic outcomes, moving the Bears-Vikings game to the late-afternoon slot so it would be played simultaneously with Eagles-Redskins, Cardinals-Seahawks and 49ers-Rams. Minnesota is an overpriced favorite here with underachiever Kirk Cousins at quarterback who is now 4-23 in his career in games against teams that have a winning record. No NFC defense has given up fewer points than Chicago this season and the Bears have said they won't take their foot off the gas in the season finale as they have something to play for as well. Head coach Matt Nagy, whose Bears have a shot to move up a seed from No. 3 should it win and the Rams lose to the 49ers, indicated his team would go all out to secure such a result. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (325) Chicago Bears |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 46 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. After a 3-0 start, Miami has lost eight of its last 12 games with injuries playing a big role in that. There could have been two more losses in there with the miraculous win against New England going the other way and the win over Buffalo could have been a loss also had the Bills converted that Josh Allen to Charles Clay pass. The Dolphins have been outgained in nine straight games and there is nothing to play for here. Buffalo played hard last week against the Patriots and the goal here is to initiate some revenge while getting to .500 at home for the season. Three of those losses came against the Chargers, Patriots and Bears with the other coming against the Jets despite Buffalo winning the yardage battle by 120 yards. Buffalo is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 24 or more ppg while Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a game at home and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Here we play on teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 40-17 ATS (70.2 percent) since 1983. 9* (320) Buffalo Bills |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars v. Texans -6.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Month. By way of CBS Sports, the Texas have four chances to secure a first round bye but only two are realistic. First, if they win Sunday against the Jaguars and have the Patriots lose or tie, they are the No. 2 seed. Second, the Texans can also win, have the Chiefs lose, the Chargers lose and get the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Chiefs. Houston lost to Philadelphia last week but became the sixth team since 1980 to reach the playoffs after a 0-3 start on Sunday evening when Pittsburgh lost to New Orleans. The Texans will rely on Deshaun Watson who has played clean football over the past five games, throwing eight touchdown passes with no interceptions and running for three more scores. The Jaguars defense played well again against Miami but they have a bigger challenge this week and the offense continues to sputter. Jacksonville is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging fewer than 1.25 turnovers per game going up against teams forcing fewer than 1.25 tpg, after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 52-27 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Houston Texans |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame +12.5 v. Clemson | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our Cotton Bowl Winner. It is hard to overlook an undefeated team getting this many points and we are going to back Notre Dame in what is not only a good matchup but it has history on its side based on the fact that undefeated teams in bowl games that are getting at least a touchdowns are 12-4 ATS. As far as the matchup, Clemson is sitting at #2 in the S&P+ overall rankings and #3 in the ESPN.com overall efficiency rankings, while Notre Dame is #6 in both. The key is the underrated Notre Dame defense which is #4 in S&P+, #11 in defensive efficiency, #9 in scoring, and that it has the unit to not necessarily shut down the Clemson high-powered offense, but to slow it down, limit its time of possession, and force it to rely less on its running game. On the other side, Clemson will be tested by the Notre Dame passing game as its secondary has struggled at times. Getting to quarterback Ian Book will be more difficult as the NCAA suspensions of Clemson DT Dexter Lawrence is big as he is a key member of the teams fearsome defensive line and has 36 tackles and seven tackles for loss. The Fighting Irish are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against team with a winning record while the Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games. 10* (255) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse +1.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 243 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our CFB Game of the Year. This line shot down considerably once West Virginia quarterback Will Grier announced he was skipping the Camping World Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft and of course to avoid injury. The Mountaineers will turn to sophomore Jack Allison to run their offense. Allison is 6-10 on the year for 75 yards with one touchdown and one interception and he will be facing a Syracuse defense which is 8th in the country in sacks with 38. What makes that even tougher for West Virginia is that All-Big 12 starting left tackle Yodny Cajuste is also skipping for the same reasons as Grier so the offense that produced 520.4 ypg will be down two key players. This is a big game for Syracuse as it will be playing its first bowl game since 2013 and this is a great opportunity to jumpstart the program heading into next season. The Orange will be out to get double-digit wins for the first time since 2001 so this is an important game for various reasons. In any other season, the Orange would be going to the Orange Bowl since they are the second highest ranked team in the ACC but the CFP has the Orange Bowl this year so they are taking a step down in a bowl game but the line is not reflecting that. The Mountaineers are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss while the Orange are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Additionally, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a double digit road win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 26-9 ATS (74.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (243) Syracuse Orange |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL -2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our Pinstripe Bowl Winner. Wisconsin looks like a live dog here based on this game being played in a cold weather environment but that is often an underrated factor if there is no wind or precipitation which is the case tonight. The Badgers were one of the biggest disappointments in the country this season as they came into the season ranked No. 5 in the nation but they lost early to BYU and fell by double-digits against Michigan, Northwestern and Penn St. the regular season culminated with a 22-point loss against rival Minnesota, the first time they lost to the Gophers since 2003 and the first time they lost at home to Minnesota since 1994. Miami also had a disappointing season but closed with a pair of wins against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh which came a four-game losing streak. The Hurricanes will force Wisconsin to throw the ball which will be tough for the Badgers and sophomore Jack Coan as regular starter Alex Hornibrook is out with a concussion. Miami will also be playing with revenge from the Orange Bowl last season. Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10* (237) Miami Hurricanes |
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12-26-18 | TCU v. California +1 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our Cheez-It Bowl Winner. California is coming off a loss against rival Stanford in its regular season finale as it outgained the Cardinal but lost the turnover battle 3-1. The Golden Bears can win their first bowl game since 2015, when they beat Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl in what was Jared Goff's last college game. This is just their second bowl game over the last seven years so there is a lot on the line here. TCU lost its starting quarterback and backup quarterback to injuries during the season and is now playing with its third-string quarterback Grayson Muehlstein. The fifth-year senior was never higher than third-string at any point in his TCU career. That is only a part of it however as the Horned Frogs lost 26 players to season-ending injuries. He goes up against a California defense that is ranked in the top 25 nationally in total, passing and scoring defense. The Horned Frogs did close the season with wins in their final two games to become bowl eligible but it was a disappointing season overall as they came in ranked No. 16. The Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (234) California Golden Bears |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. This is one of the better rivalries in the NFL and it should be no different tonight. The Raiders could be hosting their last ever game in Oakland so the scene will be pretty intense and gives the Raiders a significant edge. While it has been a disappointing season for the Raiders, they have played better of late as they have outgained three of their last opponents while one of the exceptions was getting outgained by Kansas City by just 27 yards. One of the players who has caught a lot of flak is Derek Carr but he has passed for 3,697 yards and 19 touchdowns and has not thrown an interception in the last nine games. The Broncos have lost two straight games following a three-game winning streak and the talk of head coach Vance Joseph of getting fired are getting stronger. Going back, the Broncos are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss including going 0-6 ATS in their last six games following consecutive losses against the spread. Here, we play against teams that are averaging 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Oakland Raiders |
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12-23-18 | Bears v. 49ers +5 | Top | 14-9 | Push | 0 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Bears have clinched a playoff berth thanks to a pair of home wins over the Rams and Packers. They finished 7-1 at home but they are only 3-3 on the road and while there was a blowout win at Buffalo, the other two victories were far from dominating as they were outgained in Detroit by 69 yards and won by just two points at Arizona. To their credit, all three road losses could have been wins but the makeup of this team shows that Chicago should not be laying a significant number on the road. The 49ers are just 4-10 on the season but continue to play hard and they are coming off a pair of impressive wins over Seattle and Denver. San Francisco is 0-7 on the road but it does have a winning record at home and can close the season with its first winning record at home since 2013. Quarterback Nick Mullens has been excellent since taking over as he has a QB Rating of 96 in his six games and he is 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming by just four points. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 82-45 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (126) San Francisco 49ers |
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12-23-18 | Jaguars v. Dolphins -3.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The playoff picture is not looking too bright for Miami as it needs to win and its postseason hope is done if the Patriots beat the Bills, the Titans beat the Redskins, and the Colts beat the Giants. A miracle win against the Patriots was followed up by a blowout loss last week at Minnesota but Sunday presents a great opportunity in their final home game of the season. The Dolphins have covered six of their seven home games this season. Jacksonville put up a poor effort last week in its last home game against Washington and we should not see much more effort from the Jaguars with their last two games taking place on the road. The offense has been putrid as their 16.1 ppg is third worst in the league and Cody Kessler has not been the answer at quarterback. Jacksonville is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Here, we play on teams after two consecutive game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 52-19 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons including a perfect 7-0 ATS this season. 9* (110) Miami Dolphins |
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12-23-18 | Giants +10.5 v. Colts | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Sunday presents the possibility of a huge letdown for the Colts. Indianapolis is coming off its two most impressive victories, shutting out Dallas 23-0 on Sunday to snap the Cowboys five-game winning streak after ending Houston's nine-game run the previous week with a 24-21 road win. Obviously the Colts need to keep winning to try and get into the postseason but it is a little overaggressive for them to be laying double-digits against a team that has played better on the road than it has at home. The Giants were shutout at home last week against the Titans and their No. 1 ranked scoring defense. New York is 3-4 on the road with the four losses coming by a combined 15 points and none by more than seven points. The offense was playing well prior to last week as the Giants had averaged 31.4 ppg in their previous five games. The Colts defense has been up and down and coming off a shutout means regression. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (111) New York Giants |
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12-23-18 | Packers -2.5 v. Jets | 44-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Packers were officially eliminated from the playoffs last week as they lost in Chicago for their fourth defeat in their last five games. There is still motivation for Green Bay as it is 0-7 on the road and it will be trying to avoid its first winless season away from home since the 1950s. Aaron Rodgers proved this by making sure he was taking the field even though sitting out the final two games would be the smart move. An expected lost season is just what has happened for the Jets as they are now 4-10 even though they are encouraged by the play of Sam Darnold over the last two games. The problem is, that is where it ends as this roster is one of the worst in football, especially on the other side of the ball despite some claims that the defense is actually decent. The Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, including No. 22 in total defense and No. 26 in scoring defense. They have allowed 29.2 ppg over their last five games. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (117) Green Bay Packers |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Because the Chargers are coming off a Thursday game and are at home while Baltimore is travelling on a short week, Los Angeles has a significant situational edge. The Chargers are coming off a last-second victory at Kansas City that pulled them into a tie with the Chiefs atop the AFC West. Kansas City holds the tiebreaker, so Los Angeles will have to win out and hope for the Chiefs to lose once to claim the top seed. The Chargers have won four straight games, the last three without running back Melvin Gordon and those games were all close and with Gordon back, the offense gets back another weapon. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore has won four of its last five games which has coincided with quarterback Lamar Jackson taking over for Joe Flacco. However, Jackson has fumbled an NFL-high seven times since Week 11, losing three of those, and this Chargers defense is primed for takeaways. The Ravens might currently hold the final wild-card spot in the AFC, but that could change dramatically if they can't upset the Chargers. A Ravens victory gets them up to an 82 percent chance to make the playoffs, while a loss drops them to just 16 percent. The Ravens are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while going 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (124) Los Angeles Chargers |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army -5 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our Armed Forces Bowl Winner. A contrast in styles will be on display in Fort Worth as Army comes in the leader in the country in time of possession while Houston is dead last in the nation. The Black Knights are an excellent rushing team as they average 296.3 ypg which is second in the nation and since Week Two, the Black Knights run game is averaging 307.9 ypg and has scored 38 of 45 offensive touchdowns. The Houston defense is a sieve to begin with and it has been without its top four defensive linemen including consensus All-American Ed Oliver who had a knee injury but could have played Saturday and he elected not to avoid further injury and get ready for the NFL Draft. The Cougars are going to struggle as they are allowing 197.1 ypg on the ground which is No. 97 in the country. One missed tackle or blown assignment could lead to a big gain and Houston must also avoid penalties that could extend Army drives. The Cougars do possess a potent offense but are down to their second string quarterback and they now face an Army defense that has been quietly excellent as it is No. 9 in the country, allowing just 293.5 ypg. Additionally for Houston, talented receivers Courtney Lark and Keith Corbin are both questionable to play as well. Here, we play against teams averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 280 and 330 ypg, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 40-16 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (224) Army Black Knights |
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12-21-18 | BYU v. Western Michigan +13 | Top | 49-18 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our Potato Bowl Winner. There are just four double-digit favorites in the bowl games this season and BYU is arguably the one that should not be. The Cougars played a difficult non-conference season and while they sustained some close losses, they also were not impressive with their wins with the last four coming against McNeese St., Hawaii, Massachusetts and New Mexico St. This is a pedestrian offense that averaged just 354.5 ypg which was No. 107 in the country and for a unit like that to be asked to cover a double-digit number is difficult. On the flip side, Western Michigan finished No. 30 in total offense and while its schedule was not nearly as difficult, this team can score which is a significant factor for a sizable underdog. While the Cougars defense had a solid season, injuries piled up along the way as three starters have been lost over the last month of the season. Motivation is key and the Broncos feeling slighted with this spread. Western Michigan went 6-6 last year but was one of four eligible teams not invited to a bowl, so the Broncos are thrilled to be playing a game in the postseason a year later. The line switch is significant considering double-digit bowl favorites are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games when they closed the regular season as a double-digit underdog. 10* (220) Western Michigan Broncos |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our Gasparilla Bowl Winner. South Florida opened the season 7-0 but fell flat down the stretch, losing its final five games by an average of 19.4 ppg while getting outgained in all five games and by an average of 131.4 ypg so it was a bad stumble. The Bulls are playing this game on their home field but that means little when it comes to bowl games teams as teams that play on their home field are just 16-13 over the last 19 seasons. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Marshall closed the season much better by winning five of its last seven games and even though it did close with a 21-point loss at Virginia Tech, it was only outgained by two yards as penalties and turnovers did it in. The Thundering Herd has just one loss in a game they were the favorite in, and it came on the road by just two points at Southern Mississippi. They are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play against home underdogs after having lost five or six out of their last seven games going up against an opponent after having won three out of their last four games. This situation is 65-24 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (215) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Frisco Bowl Winner. San Diego St. closed its regular season with a thud as it dropped its final three games while getting substantially outgained in all three of those as well. The Aztecs had won seven of eight games prior to that following a season opening loss at Stanford so they head into the postseason with negative momentum. The Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Ohio meanwhile comes in with a ton of momentum as it has won five of its last six games while going 7-2 over its last nine games. The Bobcats lost their first game of the season against Virginia by 14 points but their last three losses have come by a combined nine points. Additionally, Ohio has outgained each of its last six opponents. The Bobcats are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against a team allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by 21 or more points. This situation is 52-24 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (213) Ohio Bobcats |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our CFB Boca Raton Bowl Winner. Motivation is a big factor in these early season bowl games and UAB should have plenty of it tonight. Last year, in their first season back after a two-year absence, the Blazers made it to the Bahamas Bowl only to get crushed by Ohio 41-6 and they want to make amends for that misstep. This game is about two terrific defenses UAB allowed the 11th fewest yards in the nation at 300.2 ypg, while Northern Illinois was not far behind ay 31st with 347.8 ypg. We give the edge to UAB based on not just the better numbers but having played in a tougher conference on top of that. The Blazers won and covered for us in the C-USA Championship despite getting outgained for the second straight game against Middle Tennessee St. the offense is highlighted by a potent rushing attack led by Spencer Brown who has rushed for 1,152 yards and 16 touchdowns. Northern Illinois is much weaker on offense as it averages just 325 ypg. While the Blazers were a terrific cover option, going 8-3 ATS in their final 11 games, the Huskies have covered just five of their previous 18 games on grass and are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl appearances. 10* (212) UAB Blazers |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Halfway through the season, it looked as though the Panthers were going to make some noise as they were 6-2 and trailed New Orleans by just one game. Then came a five-game losing streak and now Carolina is fighting for its playoff life. While things are looking bleak, the Panthers have not been playing bad as they have outgained each of their last four opponents with all of the losses coming by just one possession. The schedule has not been on their side either with four of the last five games coming on the road. The Saints have not exactly been tearing things up of late as they are averaging just 262 ypg over their last three games and have been outgained in two of those while outgaining the Buccaneers by only 19 yards last week. This is the third straight road game for New Orleans which is never an ideal situation and the Saints close out with two home games. The Saints have been favored by more than a field goal on the road four times and while they have covered three of those, those were all against teams out of playoff contention. Carolina is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 375 or more ypg and here, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (332) Carolina Panthers |
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12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +3 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Pittsburgh had won six straight games but it has lost its last three games and is just a half-game ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North. There are five seven-win teams in the AFC so winning out could be the possibility for making the playoffs and it starts against a nemesis. The Steelers are 0-5 in their past five games against the Patriots, including a 27-24 loss at Heinz Field last December that prevented Pittsburgh from earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. The Patriots are coming off the brutal loss against Miami and they are now a half-game behind Houston for the No. 2 seed and a first round bye. While this game means a lot for them as well, knowing they have the Bills and Jets at home to close the season helps. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (328) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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12-16-18 | Raiders v. Bengals -3 | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Cincinnati finds itself in a familiar spot as the season winds down with all playoff hopes nearly dashed. The Bengals are forced to win out to avoid a third straight losing season for the first time since they had six straight sub-.500 seasons from 1997 to 2002 and that resulted in the team hiring Marvin Lewis. This will probably result in the firing of Lewis but we should expect a big effort from the Bengals which are playing their final home game of the season. Oakland defeated Pittsburgh in a substantial upset last week and the celebrating was plentiful which puts the Raiders in a letdown spot and even more so traveling east to a non-playoff contender. Going back, Oakland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win as a home underdog of seven or more points. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 9* (310) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -3 | Top | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Cowboys have turned their season around as a 1-3 stretch has been followed up by a five-game winning streak which has propelled Dallas into first place in the NFC East. They have a two-game lead but hit the road after a three-game homestand and the Cowboys are just 2-4 on the road compared to being 6-1 at home. The Colts bounced back for us last week as they defeated the Texans, snapping their nine-game winning streak. They are tied with Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC but are currently out based on the tiebreaker making this a must win. While it could be considered a letdown spot, Indianapolis is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games off an upset win as a road underdog. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. This is another situation where we will be going against a team that should be very unprepared because of a coaching change. Former Appalachian St. Head Coach Scot Satterfield left for the Louisville job with his two coordinators so interim coach Mark Ivey, assistant head and defensive line coach steps in. The Mountaineers won their first ever SBC Championship in a 30-19 win over Louisiana and while we give them credit in playing Penn St. tough in their season opener, the level of competition was bad the rest of the way. How bad? They were favored in all of their final 11 games by at least 10.5 points so based on the number here, Appalachian St. is taking a step up in competition. We played against Middle Tennessee St. in the C-USA Championship as it lost to UAB by two points despite outgaining the Blazers by 91 total yards. The Blue Raiders closed the season by outgaining each of their last five opponents and by an average of 145.4 ypg and making that more impressive is that they were underdog in two of those games. Three of their five losses came against SEC teams, with all three going to a bowl game including No. 5 Georgia and No. 14 Kentucky, so they played a much tougher schedule and the other two losses came by just five points combined and also coming against bowl teams. Middle Tennessee St. is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Here, we play on bowl teams who lost their conference championship game by seven or less points going up against an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or better and not off a win by more than 18 points. This situation is 19-1 ATS (95 percent) since 1992. 10* (209) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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12-15-18 | Texans -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. As a situational handicapper for the most part, this one sets up very well and while this number does not look ideal, it is based on the talent gap and in this case, it is huge. Houston had its nine-game winning streak snapped at home last week against the Colts and now sits two games ahead of Indianapolis in the AFC South with a couple marginal tests remaining. While the Texans have had some close road games, five of the six came against teams still in the playoff hunt and the lone exception resulted in a 13-point win at Jacksonville. Houston is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. The Jets snapped a six-game losing streak with a win in Buffalo last week thanks to three Bills turnovers. New York has been outgained in seven of its last eight games including differentials in its last four games of -252, -160, -123 and -120. The Jets are ranked No. 30 in offensive efficiency and that has been the big downfall as the defense has at least been average. It could be even worse this week as New York could be without its leading rusher and second leading receiver. The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on road favorites with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) Houston Texans |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. This line has come down substantially with the main factor being Utah St. losing the entire coaching staff as head coach Matt Wells, offensive coordinator Dave Yost, and defensive coordinator Keith Patterson are all headed to Texas Tech so co-defensive coordinator Frank Maile will be in charge on Saturday. While the number has come down, it is still above the key number seven and that is significant for North Texas which will be out to bounce back from consecutive bowl losses, especially for the seniors that want to go out with a victory. The Mean Green finished the season 9-3 and while they closed on a 0-5 ATS run, they were favored in four of those including three by double digits. The three losses this season were all by one possession and even more important, North Texas outgained every opponent this season, the only team in the country to do so. It won the yardage battle by 113.3 and that is significant, especially when dealing with an underappreciated underdog. Utah St. had a special season where it went 10-2 that included a 10-game winning streak bookended by losses against Michigan St. and Boise St. The problem is that it is hard to determine how good the Aggies really as only two of those 10 wins came against teams competing in a bowl game. Overall, they played the No. 14 ranked schedule in the country, easily the softest in the MWC. The Aggies are 4-15 ATS against teams with a winning record and we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better off a road loss against a conference rival, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (201) North Texas Mean Green |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Chargers do look appealing in this spot based on this being one of the best opportunities to snap their nine-game losing streak against Kansas City. But, there is plenty of motivation on the Chiefs side as well as they can wrap up the division with a win and likely clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Kansas City is 6-0 at home and welcome the Chargers for their second meeting this season after winning in Los Angeles in the season opener. The last two games have been closer than expected but going back, the Chiefs have won the yardage battle in each of their last five games and by an average of 83.8 ypg. The one aspect where home field has made a huge difference is the defense as Kansas City allows 34.1 ppg on the road while giving up just 18.7 ppg at home. The Chargers have won three straight and nine of their last 10 games with the lone loss coming against Denver in a game they lost on a last second field goal. They are playing some of the best football in the NFL but this is a time of year where it has struggled and it is no coincidence. The Chargers are 3-8 in their last 11 games in December and they have lost four straight outright on the road outdoors. Injuries could play a big role here as well as Los Angeles will likely be without running back Melvin Gordon once again as he is doubtful and a game-time decision while Kansas City will be getting defensive back Eric Berry on the field for the first time this season. He we play on home favorites after having won three out of their last four games going up against an opponent, after having won eight or more out of their last 10 games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Kansas City Chiefs |
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12-10-18 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Vikings are 2-3-1 on the road and while that looks unimpressive, the schedule has been brutal by playing three divisional leaders as well as the Packers and Eagles. Minnesota is coming off a 24-10 loss in New England last Sunday and being a high profile game, most will remember that and carry that recency bias into this week. Additionally, the Seahawks have won three straight games including a 27-point win over the 49ers last week. Impressive on the scoreboard but not impressive in the stats as Seattle was outgained by 121 total yards and was fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0. While Seattle has had the better ground game this season overall, we could see a flip tonight with Minnesota possessing the better rush game. The Vikings have talked all week of wanting to run it more, and especially to get running back Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 4.2 ypc, more touches. And given that Seattle comes into the game still ranked tied for last in rushing yards allowed per carry at 5.1, it makes sense for the Vikings to try to establish the run. on the other side, the Seahawks are a run-first team, but the only win they have by more than three points over a top-15 run defense is the Cowboys and that was only due to winning the turnover battle 3-0 as they were outrushed 166-113. Seattle will have to go against a Minnesota defense that allows just 3.7 ypc, fifth in the NFL, and has not allowed a run all season of longer than 21 yards compared to every other team that has allowed at least one run of 28 yards. Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by 21 points or more over a division rival while the Vikings are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (133) Minnesota Vikings |
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12-09-18 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Eagles made it two straight wins with their win over Washington on Monday night as they caught a break with Colt McCoy having to exit early with a broken leg. Philadelphia is just one game behind Dallas in the NFC East and this is a must won considering the Cowboys won the first meeting as a loss here would realistically put the Eagles three games back. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Dallas has won four straight games starting with that win over the Eagles and culminating with a win over the Saints last Thursday. Dallas has the edge with time off from playing on a Thursday but in a divisional game, we will grab the value. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-11 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (129) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -3.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Packers are coming off a disaster of a game last week as they lost to the Cardinals as two-touchdown favorites and now it will take a miracle to make the playoffs. The loss led to the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy and teams tend to respond in a big way when these situations arise. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will have more flexibility in the offense and that is when he tends to be his best when he is working on the fly. And he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after having lost the last three meetings to Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Atlanta has dropped four straight games and the offense was unable to reach 20 points in any of those games. The Falcons are now 4-8 including 1-4 on the road. Here, we play on home favorites of seven points or less coming off straight up home loss as double-digit home favorites. This situation is 18-6 (75 percent) since 1980. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 0-5 ATS in its last five games against teams with a losing record. 9* (112) Green Bay Packers |
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12-09-18 | Colts +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. We played against the Colts last week and while we were confident in the Jaguars defense, we did not expect a shutout. Now Andrew Luck will be out to bounce back which he has done the majority of time in the past. He is an incredible 16-2 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss if his team is .333 or better. The Colts are not in must win mode but they are close as a loss here will keep them at least a game out of the second Wild Card spot. Houston has won nine straight games and while we played against the Texans last week and lost, the dominations are still not there as they were outgained by the Browns with a 4-0 turnover advantage being the difference. Despite being as hot as they are, we feel the Texans are overvalued here as a field goal should be the line in this divisional matchup. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss by seven points or less to a division rival. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (107) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-08-18 | Navy +7 v. Army | Top | 10-17 | Push | 0 | 49 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our Army/Navy Enforcer. A historic rivalry will renew for the 119th time when Army and Navy square off on Saturday afternoon. Army has a chance to put up its most victories in program history with a win here and a win in its bowl game but this will not be easy despite the disparity in records. Navy had a horrendous season as it comes in 3-9 and will not make a bowl game for the first time since 2011. This is the first time in 16 years that Army is the favorite in this series which shows how these teams have gone in opposite directions. Only one Army-Navy game in the last seven years has been decided by more than a touchdown and that was with a lot of bad Army teams on the field so now that a bad Navy team will be taking the field, one should not shy away from the Midshipmen as the rivalry takes precedence. While the Navy defense has been gashed this season, Army has not been much better as the Midshipmen are allowing 6.7 yppl but Army is not far behind, allowing 5.9 yppl. With the defenses giving up chunk yards, that makes the underdog always a threat. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 21-28 ppg going up against teams averaging between 28-34 ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 54-20 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. 10* (103) Navy Midshipmen |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Tennessee snapped a two-game slide with a come-from-behind win over the Jets last Sunday as the Titans scored the game winning touchdown with 36 seconds left. They outgained the Jets by 123 total yards and the defense did its job once again as they did not allow and offensive touchdown. Obviously, the Jets offense is garbage but the same can be said about the opponent tonight as well. Tennessee is ranked No. 10 and No. 6 in total defense and scoring defense respectively and will square off against another backup quarterback. Jacksonville is coming off a win over the Colts but not too much can be read into that as it was outgained overall and was bailed out by some questionable Indianapolis moves by taking points off the board and eventually getting stopped on fourth down and not kicking a field goal on another fourth down which resulted in a sack and a turnover on downs. The Jaguars defense played at a high level after a stretch of poor showing and we suspect a reversal to that tonight as they hit the road where they are 1-4. The Jaguars are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (102) Tennessee Titans |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Eagles lost five of seven games culminating in a 48-7 loss at New Orleans two weeks ago. Things appeared bleak last week as the Eagles faced deficits of 12-0 and 19-3 but wound up rallying for a 25-22 win over the Giants. This may seem like the turning point for Philadelphia but it has not gotten there yet as there are issues on both sides. Washington lost quarterback Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury and Colt McCoy got thrust into the starting lineup against the Cowboys on a short week. Now, he is coming off a long week after having played on Thanksgiving and while he definitely showed rust 11 days ago, he is in a much better spot now going from facing the No. 5 ranked defense to now facing the No. 24 ranked defense. Washington is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl while the Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl. Additionally, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (379) Washington Redskins |
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12-02-18 | Colts v. Jaguars +5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
The Jaguars are reeling with seven straight losses while the Colts are making a move with five straight wins. This is a spot where Jacksonville will step up as they turn to Cody Kessler at quarterback who is starting for the benched Blake Bortles and also breaks in new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich. Things can only go up. The Colts are coming off three straight home game which puts them in a tough spot where they are just 2-3 on the road and are favored by more here than they were at home three games back and they were actually outgained by the Jaguars in that game. Indianapolis is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game while the Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play on home teams revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 83-43 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (352) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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12-02-18 | Panthers -3 v. Bucs | 17-24 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
The Panthers are entering must win mode following their third consecutive loss. They were beaten badly by the Steelers following a three-game winning streak and the last two losses were by a combined four points so both were winnable. Four of the five losses have been by just one possession. Carolina should have a big edge in the running game as it averages 5.2 ypc while the Buccaneers allow 4.7 ypc. Tampa Bay snapped a four-game losing streak with a decisive win over San Francisco and while they have been pretty solid at home with a 3-2 record, the Buccaneers are catching Carolina at the wrong time. Tampa Bay is 8-23 ATS in its last 31 home games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or worse while the Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (355) Carolina Panthers |
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12-02-18 | Browns +6 v. Texans | 13-29 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Houston set a franchise record with its eighth consecutive win on Monday over Tennessee. The Texans are in first place in the AFC South and while the winning streak has been impressive, the win over the Titans was just the third one by more than one possession. Cleveland has won two straight games for the first time in over four years and a win here gets the Browns right in the thick of the Wild Card race as they are currently just a game and a half out of the second spot. The record could be even better as they have a tie and three losses by three points or less. Houston is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game while the Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season averaging between 5.9-6.7 passing ypa going up against teams allowing between 5.9-6.7 passing ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 74-38 ATS (66.1 percent) since 1983. 9* (359) Cleveland Browns |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals +5.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Game of the Week. The early line on this was Cincinnati -2.5 prior to last Sunday and there is no way Andy Dalton is worth 7.5 points so the value is squarely on the Bengals here. Jeff Driskel was decent last week after coming in and with a full week of preparation and having A.L. Green back, he is not a significant downgrade. The Broncos are coming off consecutive impressive wins over the Chargers and Steelers but what is not shown in the scores is that they were outgained by 154 and 219 total yards respectively. The only other road win for Denver was at 2-9 Arizona. Denver is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in five straight games while the Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team. This situation is 68-27 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (366) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-01-18 | Georgia +13 v. Alabama | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA BULLDOGS for our SEC Championship Winner. There has never been a more dominant regular season in the history of college football as Alabama is the first team since 1888 to win all of its games by at least 20 points which makes the Tide very enticing to bettors laying less than two touchdowns. However, this is easily their biggest test of the season. Jake Fromm is 23-3 as a starter and his completion percentage of 69.1 percent is on pace to set a school record (67.9 Hunter Mason in 2014). He's 161-for-233 for 2,236 yards, with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions for a season passer rating of 179.4. Georgia seemed to find its niche after losing at LSU 36-16 as the running game has been potent. Sophomore running back D'Andre Swift has topped 100 rushing yards in four of the last five games, and along with Elijah Holyfield hoping to match Nick Chubb and Sony Michel as the Bulldogs' second 1,000-yard tandem in as many years. This presents a problem as Alabama went 0-5 ATS last season against teams that averaged more than 200 rushing ypg, and it is 1-3 ATS when facing such teams this season. The Georgia defense is the second best stop unit that the Tide will face as they were held to 24 points against Mississippi St. Both the Alabama offense and defense have been outstanding and there is no reason to get into that. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs that are averaging 225 or more rushing ypg after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (315) Georgia Bulldogs |
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12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our CFB Game of the Week. The Bears are coming off a 33-21 win over Colorado and have won four of their past five games led by a defense that allowed 42.6 ppg just two years ago under Sonny Dykes but are allowing half of that this season including just 14.2 ppg over their last five games. The Bears lead the PAC 12 with 17 interceptions and rank among the nation’s top 20 in fewest passing yards allowed, pass efficiency defense and total defense. This is no fluke as head coach Justin Wilcox is a defensive genius and defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter is very sharp as well. Stanford started the season 4-0 but has lost four of its last seven games and while it has won its last two games, those came against 2-10 Oregon St. and 3-9 UCLA. The offense has been pretty solid despite the injuries and struggles of running back Bryce Love but the Cardinal are going to struggle against this surging defense. Stanford has had a dominant defense in recent years, but the Cardinal ranks ninth in the PAC 12 in total defense this season.as they are having a very down year which can help the Bears which have not met expectations. The last time California beat Stanford was 2009, which finished off a run of seven wins in eight years against Stanford and this is the best opportunity to end that. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. This situation 52-18 ATS (74.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (334) California Golden Bears |
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12-01-18 | UAB +1.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our C-USA Championship Winner. UAB had the opportunity to host the C-USA Championship but it dropped its final game and that happened to be a loss here last week but the Blazers had some unfortunate things take place. The Blazers went into the game without defensive players Garrett Marino and Brontae Harris and offensive lineman Rishard Cook, who fell ill only a couple of days before the contest and started their third-string center for the second straight week. Offensive lineman Justice Powers made his 12th start of the season but was ejected early in the second quarter for throwing a punch at an opposing player which left the Blazers with only two regular starters on an offensive line that gave up seven sacks. This is still the best team in the conference with the best defense that was not at full strength last week and we can expect a better performance in this rematch. Namely, the offense. UAB managed only 89 total yards which included -1 yard rushing. The Middle Tennessee defense is good but not that good. UAB quarterback A.J. Erdely was returning from injury so he was clearly rusty and workhorse running back Spencer Brown left the game after only one carry but is expected to return this week after having an extended period of time off. Here, we play against teams after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 122-73 ATS (62.6 percent) since 1992. 9* (307) UAB Blazers |
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11-30-18 | Utah +6 v. Washington | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our PAC 12 Championship Winner. Utah and Washington are not separated by much in the stat sheets and the records are the same yet the like is saying the Huskies are significantly better, which is not the case. My numbers show a two-point difference on a neutral field so the Utes are getting a ton of value. The Utes lost leading rusher Zack Moss in the Arizona St. game but that has proven how much depth they have as they have still outrushed all three subsequent opponents by a total of 262 yards. Washington won the regular season matchup 21-7 in Salt Lake City. The biggest takeaway is that the Utes believe they are a much different team 11 weeks later. Coming into that game, Utah was more pass oriented and that was not ideal against one of the best secondaries in the country. The Utes changed the way their offense runs as head coach Kyle Whittingham said he wanted an offense that avoided turnovers, ran the ball with a physical aura and still possessed big-play capability in the passing game. The Washington defense is strong and the same can be said for the Utes defense that allows only six more ypg than the Huskies. The Utes are among the best in the country at getting their opponents off the field, allowing conversions on only 33.2 percent of third downs. Additionally, they have only allowed opponents to score on 62.9 percent of trips inside the red zone, which is second best in the nation. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs outrushing their opponents by 100 or more ypg on the season. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (305) Utah Utes |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 30-29 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our MAC Championship Winner. Both defenses are pretty much even as they are two of the best stop units in the conference and the difference in this game will be the Buffalo offense. The Bulls are averaging over 100 more ypg than Northern Illinois while averaging over two touchdowns more on the scoreboard. The problem for the Huskies defense here is the Buffalo balance as it averages 200.8 ypg on the ground and 219.1 ypg through the air. Quarterback Tyree Jackson earned MAC Offensive Player of the Year honors after throwing for 2,605 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. Jackson also has seven rushing scores over 41 carries in 2018. One factor some will look at is experience as for the for the Huskies, they have won the West Division seven of the last nine years and are making their eighth appearance in the title game (the most of any team in the MAC). Meanwhile, Buffalo is here for just the second time but these experience gaps mean little. Two situations are in play. First, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost two out of their last three games going up against an opponent after having won four out of their last five games. This situation is 49-22 ATS (69 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 16-21 ppg, after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 64-27 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Buffalo Bulls |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. The Saints are humming along with 10 straight wins and nine straight covers so the fact they are over a touchdown favorite here is no surprise. Things were looking bleak for Dallas after a home loss against Tennessee but it has won and covered three straight games since then and this is the perfect primetime matchup for the Cowboys to show they are still relevant. The New Orleans offense continues to light it up but the Cowboys defense is soaring and has allowed the third-fewest points (213), fourth-fewest rushing yards (1,030), fifth-fewest first downs (207) and seventh-fewest total yards (3,642). The Cowboys offense has improved drastically since receiver Amari Cooper joined the team. That was made clear by his performance last week against the Redskins as he had 180 yards, including touchdown catches of 40 and 90 yards. His presence is now big to keep the balance going. Ezekiel Elliott overtook Todd Gurley for NFL lead last week (1,074 yards rushing to 1,043). He has 18 100-yard games since joining league in 2016 and no other player has more than 12. He's averaging 161 scrimmage yards with four TDs in past four games and while the Saints rushing defense is the best in the league, a big reason for that is they have seen the fewest rushes against them. Here, we play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 106-63 (62.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (302) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Houston is the hottest team in the AFC with seven consecutive wins and it returns home following a pair of two-point road victories. The Texans have been far from dominating however as four of those wins came by three points or less and the other three came against Buffalo, Jacksonville and Miami which all have losing records. Houston is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by three points or less while going 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in its 10 divisional games with Marcus Mariota when coming off a loss. Before the Titans were obliterated at Indianapolis last week, they defeated Dallas by 14 and New England by 24. In those two games, Mariota threw four touchdown passes, ran for another and didn't suffer an interception so the fact he is playing tonight is important. Until last week, the Titans had not given up more than 27 points in any game and that 27 came in Week One in Miami. This defense is legit. Two weeks ago, the Titans used several blitz packages to take advantage of the Patriots offensive line and they will do the same against Houston. The Texans offensive line is much worse as the unit is ranked No. 24 in the league. Going back, the Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (273) Tennessee Titans |
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11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals +1 | 35-20 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. As bad as the Bengals run has been, they are right there in the playoff picture which the Wild Card race is still wide open. Cincinnati, among five teams sitting at 5-5 in the AFC, has won seven consecutive games over Cleveland. And it hasn't been much of a rivalry during that span as the Bengals have won each game by an average margin of more than 21 points and the closest game in that span was a 23-10 victory in December 2016. Cleveland is still in the hunt although it is unlikely at 3-6-1 and the Browns may have lost some momentum from their win over Atlanta because of their bye week. Cleveland is 0-4 on the road and going back, the Browns are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. 9* (260) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-25-18 | 49ers v. Bucs -1.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Since beating the Eagles on 9/24, Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 with the only win coming in overtime against Cleveland. However, the Buccaneers have won the yardage battle in six of those eight games as turnover and special teams have been a difference. The 49ers have found new life with Nick Mullens at quarterback but now he is making his first career road start and while Tampa Bay is not the most hostile of environments, it is on the road nonetheless. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 60-27 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Seattle snapped a two-game slide with a win over Green Bay last Thursday and is now just a game out of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Seahawks are a respectable 3-3 on the road but while they are 3-1 against non-playoff teams, they lost both games against the Rama and Bears, two teams going into the postseason. Carolina is coming off another frustrating loss on the road where they have just one victory and that took a three-touchdown fourth quarter to accomplish. Carolina is 5-0 at home and falls into a great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off two or more consecutive overs, averaging 23-27 ppg going up against teams allowing 23-27 ppg. This situation is 36-14 ATS (72 percent) since 1983. 10* (264) Carolina Panthers |
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11-24-18 | BYU +11.5 v. Utah | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the BYU COUGARS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. The Holy War has been dominated by Utah s it has won seven straight meetings in the series but it has not been dominating as of those seven wins, six have come by a touchdown or less. That makes this line very intriguing and even more so considering the Utes are starting freshman Jason Shelley at quarterback. It is hard to ignore the fact that he is just 33-65 (50.7 percent) since taking over. BYU has won two straight games to become bowl eligible and it is currently playing its best football, having outgained each of its last five opponents. Three of the five losses have been by five points or less and going back, the Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Here, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a home win by 17 points or more going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (183) BYU Cougars |
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11-24-18 | Notre Dame v. USC +12 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the USC TROJANS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. There is lot at stake for both teams Saturday as Notre Dame needs to win in order to remain undefeated and cement its shot in the top four of the CFP while USC needs a win to become bowl eligible. The Trojans have lost four of their last five games with two of those coming at home but those two losses were decided by a combined four points. This is the biggest number USC has seen in this series since 1996. The Irish were impressive last week against a Syracuse team many though had a chance for the upset but it was not even close. Notre Dame has stifles opponents early as it has jumped on teams in each half, outscoring opponents 112-23 in the first quarter and 93-45 in the third quarter, which is what USC has to avoid. Here, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season averaging 5.6 to 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing 4.8 to 5.6 yppl, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (226) USC Trojans |
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11-24-18 | Colorado +12.5 v. California | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO BUFFALOES as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Colorado opened the season 5-0 but has lost six straight games and that led to the firing of head coach Mike MacIntyre so it will be interim coach Kurt Roper trying to guide the Buffaloes to the postseason. If Colorado drops to 5-7 this season, they will join the 2009 Kansas Jayhawks as the only two teams in college football history to start 5-0 and lose seven in a row in end a season. California has won three of its last four games but has been outgained in three straight and for an offense that is ranked No. 121 in the country, being favored by double-digits is a bit aggressive. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 yppl, after being outgained by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1992. 9* (191) Colorado Buffaloes |
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11-23-18 | Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. It is no secret what is at stake for Central Florida which has won 23 straight games and is looking to stake its claim for a spot in the CFP. The Knights are coming off three straight home games so hitting the road for the first time in a month is a challenge. South Florida opened the season 7-0 but has lost four straight games, three of those coming on the road. The lone home loss was against Tulane where the Bulls were outgained by just two yards, won the first down battle 27-17 but turnovers and penalties did them in. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better off three straight wins against conference rivals, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (134) South Florida Bulls |
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11-23-18 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech +4.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Friday Enforcer. After opening the season 4-0, the Hokies have dropped four straight games, all by double-digits, so there is a lot on the line here and next week. Virginia Tech has not missed the postseason since 1992 but can keep that streak alive with a win here and a victory in the makeup game against Marshall next week. Virginia is already bowl eligible at 7-4 but we are not sure it is this much better than the Hokies as this is a very aggressive line with the Cavaliers being favored for only the second time in this series in the last 14 years. Here, we play on teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (140) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Thanksgiving Day Enforcer. Atlanta has dropped two straight games to fall to 4-6 in the season and are now a full five games behind New Orleans in the NFC South. While winning the division is almost out of the question at this point, the Falcons are still well alive in the Wild Card race as they trail Carolina by just two games but time is running out. We are more concerned with the spread here however as Atlanta is getting close to a full touchdown more than the Eagles got last week and there is not much difference between the Falcons and Eagles. New Orleans has won nine straight games while covering its last eight and the Saints are laying their biggest number of the season as the looks have been getting killed by New Orleans backers. The offense is humming along as the Saints are now averaging 37.8 ppg which leads the league but this is not the time to be laying this big of a number, especially against an Atlanta offense that can keep up. The Saints are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a double-digit win going up against an opponent off consecutive losses while going 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites off a non-divisional game and playing a divisional opponent playing with revenge. Additionally, we play against favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Atlanta Falcons |
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11-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +11.5 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI REBELS for our CFB Thanksgiving Enforcer. The Rebels come into this year's Egg Bowl on a four-game losing streak and has failed to cover their last five games while going 0-7 ATS against conference opponents and they should br chomping at the bit after a touchdown reversal and losing in overtime to Vanderbilt last week. They lost despite outgaining the Commodores by 191 total yards and at 5-6, this is a must win to become bowl eligible. A lot of time in rivalry games, records can to be tossed out the window and that should be the case here with everything on the line. The environment of senior night should also galvanize the Rebel players. Mississippi St. is coming off a blowout victory against Arkansas as it bounced back from a loss to Alabama. While the defense has been the strength of the team all season, the Bulldogs offense as been up and down as they have scored seven points or less in four of their conference games. On the other side, the defense should be tested by Mississippi quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, who ranks second in the FBS with 3,831 passing yards. A.J. Brown is his favorite target and ranks fifth in the nations with 81 receptions, 1,259 yards and six touchdowns. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and they are part of a negative contrarian situation as we play on teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (114) Mississippi Rebels |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our Thanksgiving Day Crusher. We played on and won with Detroit on Sunday in a must win game against Carolina and while the outright win was fortunate, the cover was never in doubt and now the Lions are catching the same number in another must win situation. They are three games behind Chicago in the NFC North and a loss will all but eliminate them from playoff contention while a victory pulls them into within a game of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. As mentioned last week, this is the first time is two years nearly to the day that Detroit has played back-to-back home games, the only team in the NFL to go without this over this amount of time. The Bears defeated Minnesota on Sunday night to make it four straight wins and covers but now it plays on the short week with travel involved. Chicago improved to 51 at home but it is just 2-2 on the highway and going back, it is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games off a win by seven points or less over a division rival while going 7-24 ATS in its last 31 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. Additionally, Detroit falls into a great situation where we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 80-43 ATS (65 percent) since 1983. 9* (106) Detroit Lions |
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11-20-18 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -17 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. We won with Miami Ohio last week and we are backing the RedHawks again this week as they look to win their third straight game and become bowl eligible. Miami has won four of its last six games to improve to 5-2 in the MAC with one of those losses coming by a single point against Western Michigan. While the offense entered last week on a roll, it was the defense that got it done against the Huskies and we expect the defense the bring it again tonight. Ball St. defeated Western Michigan last week in what was its bowl game as the Cardinals have already been handed seven losses and coming off its last home game of the season should provide a letdown Tuesday. The Cardinals have just one road win on the season and that came by a single point against 1-10 Central Michigan. Ball St. is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game with the losses coming by an average of over 25 ppg. Meanwhile, Miami has covered four straight games following a win and it falls into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a road win against a conference rival. This situation is 73-35 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (104) Miami Ohio RedHawks |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. This game was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles and while that benefits the Rams faithful, it helps Kansas City more than anything based on a betting perspective. The Rams were -3 on the neutral field and now are just a half-point higher after the game being moved to their home field and the number has nor moved at some places. While Los Angeles opened the season with three straight covers, it has gone 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as the defense has let opposing teams hang around and that is not an ideal situation for tonight. The Rams have allowed 31 or more points in four of their last seven games and an average of 27.9 ppg over that stretch after giving up just 12 ppg in their first three games. The Chiefs defense has been scrutinized all year but it has improved as the season has progressed and while this will be its biggest test it has faced, trending in the right direction is key. The Rams are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games while Kansas City has covered six straight road games following two or more consecutive wins. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing ypa in four straight games. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (473) Kansas City Chiefs |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | 7-48 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES as part of our NFL Sunday Afternoon Trifecta. The bad news is that Philadelphia is 4-5 but the good news is that it trails first place Washington by just two games with two games still remaining against the Redskins. The task at hand this week is a challenge but we are not concerned about the outright win, just the fact the Eagles are getting over a touchdown. The Saints have been cruising along with eight straight wins since losing their season opener against the Buccaneers. While they have been winning most of their games big, they have actually been outgained in four of their nine games and their average yardage differential is not much higher than that of the Eagles. The recent run and the up and down nature of Philadelphia is playing a major role in this number that is overinflated. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are +/- 0.4 yppl, after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (459) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-18-18 | Raiders +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Two of the worst teams in the NFL square off in Arizona and these teams should be a pickem on a neutral field which gives us a ton of value on the Raiders. Oakland has dropped five straight games and while the offense has been moving the ball, it has not been putting up points as the Raiders have scored a total of 22 points in four of those games. Arizona does possess an underrated defense but it is the other side of the ball where Oakland has a big edge. The Cardinals are second to last in the NFL in offensive efficiency and they are also second to last in scoring offense, averaging just 13.8 ppg. Arizona has outgained only one opponent all season and that was by just 54 yards in an 18-15 win over San Francisco. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games but all were as underdogs and they are now favored for just the second time all season and by the largest amount. Here, we play on teams after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (469) Oakland Raiders |
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11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions +4.5 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS as part of our NFL Sunday Afternoon Trifecta. The Detroit playoff hopes are dwindling quickly and this is the start of a very important and daunting stretch of three games against the Panthers, Bears and Rams. The good news is that they are all at home and you have to go all the way back to November of 2016 for the last time Detroit has had back-to-back games at home so this could be the start of something good. The Panthers are coming off that blowout loss at Pittsburgh to fall to 1-3 on the road, the lone victory needing a 21-point, fourth quarter comeback against the Eagles. The offense has been solid but the defense has a lot of holes as it is ranked No. 24 in defensive efficiency, and Detroit, which is coming off three games against defenses ranked No. 2, No. 7 and No. 10, can take advantage. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 54-23 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 9* (452) Detroit Lions |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Afternoon Trifecta. The Colts are starting to hit their stride with three straight wins, albeit against weak opponents, following a four-game losing streak. Despite a 4-5 record, Indianapolis has outgained all but three opponents and this is a much needed win to keep pace with the Texans in the AFC South. This is the second of three straight home games and this is where the Colts need to make their move and we are getting a short price in doing so. The Titans are coming off an upset win over New England but that was at home where they are 3-1 and they are just 2-3 on the highway although one of those losses came in London. While Tennessee leads the league in scoring defense, it is just No. 12 in defensive efficiency while the offense checks in at No. 24. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. 9* (462) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-17-18 | Arizona +10.5 v. Washington State | Top | 28-69 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Arizona has been all over the map this season but it is still in the hunt in the PAC 12 South as it is 4-3 and trails Utah by just a half-game. The Wildcats head to Pullman riding a two-game winning streak and they have put together their best three-game stretch of the season as they have outgained their last three opponents by 438 total yards. Washington St. is looking toward a big bowl game as it has just one loss this season and that was by only three points against USC. The big game is next week however as the Apple Cup will decide PAC 12 North. Arizona falls into a simple yet effective situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 44-12 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (377) Arizona Wildcats |
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11-17-18 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our AAC Game of the Year. First place in the AAC East and a possible trip to the championship game is on the line as the Bearcats look to hand Central Florida its first loss since 2016. Cincinnati has been outgained only twice and by a total of eight yards. The Knights have been cruising along but they have leaked some oil of late as they have been outgained in three of their last four games. Here, we play against home teams after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (353) Cincinnati Bearcats |