Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-20-14 | Florida +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -107 | 90 h 26 m | Show |
There are very few marquee games this weekend but this can classify as one even though the Gators are not ranked. They are coming off a very fortunate win over Kentucky at home last Saturday and while many will look at that final score and think they will not have a chance here, that was a difficult spot with Alabama on deck. On top of that, Kentucky is a much improved team and if Alabama had the Wildcats last week, a closer than expected outcome would not have been surprising there either. The Crimson Tide have been cruising along to start the season but they have failed to cover against some inferior competition. They have not covered a game since last November, going 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games and we are catching a good number here that is above two touchdowns. Florida has a new offense and it has looked very good through two games and while it has not faced a defense like Alabama yet, that stop unit is not up to form yet so the Gators can move the ball here. The Tide defense has allowed more yards in each of the last three years including over 100 more ypg last season than they did in 2011. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better while Alabama is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 home games after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This is the first meeting since 2011 and Florida is getting the most points in this series since the early 90's. 10* (357) Florida Gators |
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09-20-14 | Marshall v. Akron +10 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 57 m | Show |
Akron last played two weeks ago at Penn St. and while it was competitive for the majority of the game, the Nittany Lions were able to pull away and avoid the backdoor cover. The Zips extra prep time is big here as they have the opportunity to work on things to slow down the Marshall offense and their defense is good enough to do so. After suffering though three straight 1-11 seasons, the Zips went 5-7 last year including wins in four of their last five games. With seven starters back on both sides of the ball, this team should continue to improve. Marshall is 3-0 following another blowout victory, this time over Ohio as it shellacked the Bobcats by 30 points and outgained them by 328 total yards. This team is no secret as the Thundering Herd came in as one of the possible non-BCS conference teams to run the table and go undefeated. They are overvalued here however as the are a different team on the road than they are at home. Marshall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite of more than a touchdown off a non-conference game while going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Zips are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a bye week. Akron falls into a great situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (312) Akron Zips |
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09-20-14 | Tulane +17 v. Duke | 13-47 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 26 m | Show | |
Duke is 3-0 following an easy winner over Kansas this past Saturday. The Blue Devils are one of the hottest teams in the country still as they are 13-2 over their last 15 regular season games with one of those losses coming by just three points. This is a dangerous spot though as they are no longer able to sneak up on anyone and because of the success, they are getting some pretty big spreads put against them. Additionally, Duke opens ACC play next week at Miami so there is definitely the potential to be looking ahead to that. The Blue Devils are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Tulane is 1-2 but it has definitely played better than that. One of the losses came in overtime and while the other was by 17 points against Georgia Tech, they were only outgained by 32 total yards and were down by only three points late in the third quarter. The Green Wave made some noise last season with their first winning season since 2002 and while many expect a dropoff with the move to the AAC, with 13 starters back, they will be competitive throughout the season. Going back, the Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record and they have a solid situation on their side as we play against home favorites after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (327) Tulane Green Wave |
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09-20-14 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -8 | 27-24 | Loss | -106 | 87 h 55 m | Show | |
We played against Virginia Tech last week as it was in a very tough spot following its big win at Ohio St. and it showed as it fell behind 21-0 before making a comeback that eventually fell sort. The Hokies have been awful the last few years following a win and that comes down to motivation. They tend to bounce back big following bad efforts though as Virginia Tech is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games after being outgained by opponent by 125 or more total yards last game. Georgia Tech survived a scare last week against Georgia Southern as it blew a big lead and hung on for the four-point win. We played against the Yellow Jackets partly due to the familiarity that the Panthers had with the system and the same can be said for the Hokies as they face this team every year and have won six of the last seven meetings. Granted, a lot of the games have been close but this is one of the worst and least experienced defenses that Georgia Tech has fielded. The Yellow Jackets are is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 37 points or more last game while going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. And fall into a great situation where we play against road teams averaging 440 or more ypg against a team with a defense allowing between 330 to 390 ypg after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 99-52 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1992. 9* (362) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
This line is going exactly where we thought so holding off was the right move and holding off even longer should pay off. This line opened at 5.5 and it is now up to -7 in some spots and going past that would not be surprising. The Falcons are coming off an abysmal game last week at Cincinnati and many will be backing them here looking for a big bounceback at home. I am not one of those as the Falcons continue to be overrated and because of that, they continue to be overpriced. The offense is full of weapons no doubt but the defense is bad and Tampa Bay should have success moving the ball. We have not seen the Buccaneers do much on offense but they have faced two of the stronger defensive lines in all of football and now will be facing one of the weakest. Atlanta gave up 139 yards rushing to New Orleans and 170 yards rushing to the Bengals and overall the Falcons are ranked dead last in total defense, 31st in passing defense and 26th in rushing defense. Tampa Bay isn't going to scare many people with this offense but like last year, this is a perfect opponent. The Buccaneers surpassed 300 yards only five times and two times came against the Falcons including their highest output of the year. Tampa Bay can take advantage this year as it is averaging 5.5 ypc, third best in the league. We have seen the home team win and cover the first two Thursday night games this season and there is the theory that many go by where as to take the home team but the host is just 9-8 ATS on Thursday night going back to the start of last season. 10* (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State +9 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show |
Auburn comes into Thursday night riding the longest ATS winning streak in the country as it has now covered 13 straight games going back to last season. That alone is making this line bigger than it should be and from a pure power ranking standpoint, I have this game as Auburn being a six-point favorite on a neutral field so this line is a touchdown higher than it should be based on venue. The tigers have rolled to wins over Arkansas and San Jose St. but now this is their toughest opponent to date and it is their first road game of the season on top of it. Kansas City is also 2-0 but it failed to cover either of its games against Stephen F. Austin and Iowa St. so that is also playing into this number. The Wildcats are not home underdogs very often but they have taken advantage of late as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games a home pup and even better, they are 12-4 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons. Head coach Bill Snyder continues to get the job done and in his career at Kansas St. he has won 64 of 68 home games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, the Wildcats are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Kansas St. also falls into a great situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 130-71 ATS (64.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Kansas St. Wildcats |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -112 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
The Colts backdoored us last week as they scored twice in the final eight minutes to cover the number against Denver. They now head home where they definitely need a victory to avoid going 0-2 and I am very confident they will even up their record. Indianapolis was able to outgain the Broncos last Sunday night by 47 yards which has been a rarity over the last couple years as it has typically been on the wrong side of the stat sheet. One thing we do know is that the Colts have been the best bounce back team in the NFL over the last two years and it happens to coincide with the arrival of Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 straight up and against the number following a loss during the regular season over those two years. While the winning margin was only 4.8 ppg in 2012, it rose to 11.8 ppg last season. The Eagles spotted Jacksonville a 17-0 lead at halftime as turnovers along with an offense that could not get going and they looked to be in serious danger. However the second half was all Philadelphia as it outscored the Jaguars 34-0 to win its season opener for the fourth straight season. The Eagles were an excellent road team last season, going 6-2 overall but it defeated only one team that went to the playoffs and that was Green Bay who was playing without Aaron Rodgers so even that win can be thrown out. They will be going into a very tough environment on Monday and justifiably so as this is the first Monday night home game for Indianapolis since Luck came aboard so the Colts will have a big home field edge. Indianapolis is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (280) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 11 m | Show |
Seattle has a very big scheduling advantage in this game as it opened its season last Thursday so it will have had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Chargers are coming off a Monday night game. Normally, that needs to be taken into account but because of the venue switches and the outcomes from last week, it is not as significant. The Seahawks proved that they are again the team to beat as they took care of Green Bay by 20 points while outgaining the Packers by 143 yards. That game was at home however where Seattle is 18-1 over its last 19 games and on the road over that same stretch, it is 9-8 so clearly it is a different team away from CenturyLink Field. But the Seahawks are favored for a reason and favored big yet the public is still all over them as they are the second biggest betting consensus of the weekend. The Chargers had the game against Arizona in their grasp yet failed to hold on as they allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by a point. While they are not in the same class as Seattle, not many are, they are in the situation to keep up. Coming back to San Diego for the home opener against the Super Bowl champions is big enough but you have to also take into consideration that the Seahawks have a date with Denver on tap next week. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and they fall into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 80-41 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers |
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09-14-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Washington Redskins | 10-41 | Loss | -140 | 74 h 16 m | Show | |
Does Washington deserve to be laying close to a touchdown to anyone? The Redskins have lost nine straight regular season games yet they come in as a pretty big favorite which is based on name alone. Going back to last season, Washington has been an underdog in eight straight games and you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find it favored by more than four points which shows how inflated this line actually is. Jacksonville blew a golden opportunity last week as it led the Eagles 17-0 but was unable to generate anything in the second half. The Jaguars will be facing a much worse defense this week even though it looked pretty decent last week against Houston. Washington was able to muster up only six points last week against Houston and while the Jaguars are considered a very bad team, their defense is very underrated and are in a favorable matchup here. There are theories that teams playing on the road coming off a road loss are never a good bet presumably because they think the same occurrence will take place. It is quite the contrary however especially if the home team is also coming off a loss on the highway. The Jaguars fall into a great situation based on this as we play against home favorites that are coming off a road loss going up against an opponent off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 90-44 ATS (67.2 percent) since 1983. The numbers are even stronger when we are dealing with a non-divisional game. Additionally, the Redskins are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games against .250 or worse opponents. 9* (255) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-14-14 | Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Tennessee Titans | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 16 m | Show | |
Tennessee went into Kansas City last Sunday and dominated the Chiefs as it won by 13 points and outgained them by 160 total yards. This comes as a surprise to some but it really wasn't as the Chiefs struggled down the stretch last season after their 9-0 start was largely done by smoke and mirrors. Taking nothing away from the Titans, but they are not as good as it may have looked last week but that score coupled with Dallas looking inept against the 49ers has this line inflated. The Cowboys fell behind early and could not recover against San Francisco but they were facing a Super Bowl contender and now they take a big step down in competition. The Tennessee defense played great against Kansas City but Dallas brings in a much more high powered offense and Tony Romo is a quarterback that bounces back from poor games. Since 2011, he has posted quarterback ratings in the 60's or worse five times and has come back with ratings of 112.2, 106, 97.1, 109.3 and 102.9 so we should expect the same here and quite frankly, playing away from home can only help. Dallas is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half while going a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games as non-conference underdogs. Tennessee meanwhile is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games coming off a double-digit ATS win and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 49.5 or higher. While a must win can be taken out of context this early in the season, teams that start 0-2 rarely make the playoffs which makes this a huge game for the Cowboys. 9* (257) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots -6 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 17 m | Show |
We played against the Patriots last week and after getting outscored 23-0 in the second half against Miami, they fell to 0-1 for the first time since 2003. They rebounded the following week then on the road at Philadelphia and I expect the same again this year. New England is still an elite team even though it looked far from it last week and it has been one of the best, it not the best, bounce back teams in the NFL over the last decade. Since the year they lost that season opener, the Patriots have dropped consecutive games during the regular season only four times and have gone 33-4 in their 37 games following a regular season loss. That is pretty impressive and you can give the credit to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for those rebound efforts. Brady is 24-9 ATS following a loss while under Belichick, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS in road games following a road loss and 11-3 ATS off a divisional loss as a favorite. Minnesota took care of St. Louis last week as the Vikings took advantage of the quarterback situation for the Rams. Despite the 28-point win, Minnesota only outgained the Rams by 28 yards as it won the turnover battle 2-0 and benefitted from the Rams committing 13 penalties for 121 yards. They will not be handed that sort of advantage this week and despite being a solid home underdog over the years, this is not the spot for that success to go on. The defense allowed only 318 yards against St. Louis but they were able to crowd the box and try and let Shaun Hill and Austin Davis beat them,. They cannot do that with Brady. 10* (261) New England Patriots |
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09-13-14 | Purdue +28.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 39 m | Show |
Purdue went 1-11 last season and while it has already matched that win total this year, the Boilermakers are coming off a disappointing loss last week against Central Michigan. That will certainly have them motivated here as they try to snap a six-game losing skid to rival Notre Dame. The Irish have been on cruise control through their first two games but after winning the last game in the series against Michigan last Saturday night, the first shutout against the Wolverines since 1984, this spells major letdown. This is an interesting matchup from a statistical point of view from last week. Notre Dame was outgained by nine yards against Michigan while Purdue was outgained by seven yards against Central Michigan. Those resulted in two completely different opposite scores as Notre Dame won by 31 points and Purdue lost by 21 points. The difference was turnovers which can change the outcome of a game even if it is played closer than the score shows. The linesmakers are basing this line on the score and not the games so we take advantage of the value. Notre Dame was favored by 17 points at Purdue last year and won by just a touchdown so based on a neutral field change, it is arguably favored by a touchdown more than it should be. The Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. This is also the last meeting in this series after 68 years and even though it will reconvene in 2020, Purdue should be extremely motivated to end their losing skid to the Irish. 10* (179) Purdue Boilermakers |
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09-13-14 | Army v. Stanford -28 | Top | 0-35 | Win | 100 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
This is similar to one of our other plays where we should see a heavy favorite take no prisoners on its overmatched opponent. Stanford did not get off to the start in the Pac 12 it was hoping for as it lost to USC by a field goal at home. A late game winning touchdown was called back because of a penalty and on the day, the Cardinal outgained the Trojans by 122 total yards so it was the better team on the field last week. They threw for 285 yards but could manage only 10 points but that won't be the case this week. We won with Army against Buffalo last week as the Black Knights built a big lead and needed all of it as they withstood a late Bulls rally to win by eight points. They were outgained by 83 yards and while Army was again solid with its offensive rushing, the fact it gave up 554 total yards is a huge concern. This is the first of three straight road games for Army and the other two are quite winnable so getting down early will but the Black Knights in a corner they won't be able to get out of. As for Stanford, it is off next week so there is no reason to think it will not go all out here and try to fix the scoring issue from last week. And they have done it in the past as the Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The last time it happened was a three-point loss to USC last season and they won by 50 over California in their next game. 10* (168) Stanford Cardinal |
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09-13-14 | Mississippi State v. South Alabama +15 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
We won with South Alabama last week and we will ride them again this week. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. This is the first home game of the season for South Alabama and this is by far the most high profile opponent to come to Ladd-Peebles Stadium ever. Mississippi St. comes in a perfect 2-0 but has not really been tested. The Bulldogs shutout Southern Miss which came in on a 1-23 run and then took out UAB last week, they defeated the Blazers by just 13 points and were actually outgained by 32 yards and this was at home. The real clincher in going against Mississippi St. is that it opens SEC action next week at LSU and it is a big revenge spot on top of it as it lost to the Tigers by 33 points last season, easily its worst loss of the year. The Bulldogs have not been favored by this much on the road since 2011 and even though it comes against a Sun Belt Conference team, they have not shown anything to justify it. These team met in Starkville in 2012 and the Jaguars lost by only 20 points and that was part of a 2-11 season. Mississippi St. is 2-10 ATS in it 12 games under Dan Mullin following a two-game homestand while the Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (158) South Alabama Jaguars |
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09-13-14 | Miami (OH) v. Michigan -31 | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -102 | 77 h 40 m | Show |
The country watched Michigan go into Notre Dame as a four-point underdog and leave with its tail between its legs after suffering a 31-0 beatdown. That isn't go to deter the public to back the Wolverines most likely but that is just fine with us as we are getting exceptional value based on the score and not the actual game. Michigan actually outgained Notre Dame by nine yards but it had four turnovers that did the damage. The Wolverines will be out to beat up on someone and what better team than Miami Ohio, losers of 18 straight games. The Warhawks have dropped both games this year at home and one was against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS. Competing on the road has been a real issues lately as they have lost games by 46, 38, 34 and 36 points in the four game against BCS conferences and two of those were against Illinois and Kentucky last season which won a combined six games. If Michigan goes out and actually puts forth the expected effort, it can name the score and you can pretty much guarantee it has not forgotten what happened against Akron last season. Here, we play on home favorites of 21.5 or more points that are averaging 4.8 ypc or more going up against a team allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 2.0 or less ypc last game. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992 with the average scoring differential being +37.9 ppg. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (120) Michigan Wolverines |
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09-13-14 | East Carolina +11.5 v. Virginia Tech | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show | |
Playing in Blacksburg is never easy but this is definitely an exception as East Carolina comes in facing a Virginia Tech team in a pretty bad spot. The Hokies are coming off a big upset win at Ohio St. last week and while they can bring some of that emotion back home, it is wasted because of a noon start. Additionally, Virginia Tech opens ACC play next week against Georgia Tech which puts it in a tough sandwich spot this Saturday. The Hokies were outgained by Ohio St. but took advantage of turnovers including a interception returned for a touchdown with a minute left that sealed the deal. East Carolina is coming off a loss at South Carolina but it was able to cover the number. The Pirates outgained the Gamecocks in that game but two interceptions by Shane Carden led to the 10 points that South Carolina scored in the third quarter. Take those away and the Pirates could have been in contention for the outright win. I expect another strong effort here as they have played the Hokies very strong the last two meetings and even though those were at home, East Carolina is 6-3 over its last nine road games and bouncing back from a loss has been old hat under head coach Ruffin McNeil as the Pirates are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games following a defeat. Even more impressive is that East Carolina has won nine of those games outright including the last eight. Going back, the Hokies are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following a win. The talent is in place for East Carolina to win so the Hokies better be on upset alert. 9* (125) East Carolina Panthers |
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09-13-14 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN +20 v. Georgia Tech | 38-42 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern is far from a household name as it enters its first full season in the FBS but this team is no slouch. The Eagles are not going to be intimidated coming here as they have a solid background. Since 2010, they have faced five teams from the FBS and they have covered all five games. This includes an outright win at Florida last year and even though that could be chalked up as the Gators sitting down, it is still impressive nonetheless. This season, Georgia Southern went into NC State and lost by just one point and here it is getting the same amount of points as it was then. The Eagles had a tuneup last week against Savannah St. and all they did was hang up 83 points against the Tigers. Georgia Tech is still a team in question. The Yellow Jackets did not look overly impressive against Wofford in their opener and they were even less impressive last week against Tulane despite winning by 17 points as they outgained the Green Wave by a mere 32 yards. As is the case with most games that are statistically close, turnover were the difference and that was case including an interception return for a touchdown. Georgia Tech will get its yards on the ground but the difference here is that Eagles run a very similar system so they are very used to it and practice against it every day. The same can be said for the Yellow Jackets but they are not the team that is a three-touchdown underdog. With running plays being mostly exclusive all day, the clock will not be stopping too much and that is a big edge for a heavy underdog. 9* (133) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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09-13-14 | West Virginia v. Maryland -3.5 | 40-37 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 8 m | Show | |
Maryland was pretty unimpressive last week against South Florida as it won by just a touchdown and outgained the Bulls by only 60 yards. Part of that was due to losing the time of possession battle by close to six minutes which was a direct result of turning the ball over six times. Rarely will a team come away victorious after turning it over that many times but the Terrapins found a way to do so which is even more impressive if you ask me. The game outcome could have been completely different if not for the miscues but the linesmakers are taking nothing but the score into consideration and that is keeping this line very short for us. West Virginia destroyed Towson last week 54-0 while outgaining the Tigers by 484 yards so that was definitely a good tuneup for this one. The Mountaineers played Alabama very tough in their first game of the season as they lost by only 10 points. But diving into the game shows it should not have been that close. West Virginia lost the yardage battle by 145 total yards and the TOP battle by a whole quarter but benefitted from a kickoff return for a touchdown as well as Alabama having to settle for four field goals. This is a revenge game for West Virginia after getting blanked 37-0 last season but with the Mountaineers hosting Oklahoma next week, they can be excused for looking ahead to that one which is a very good possibility. The Mountaineers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Terrapins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 9* (138) Maryland Terrapins |
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09-12-14 | Baylor v. Buffalo +35 | Top | 63-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
We waited on this game to confirm some injury reports. Baylor is getting quarterback Bryce Petty back for this game which is definitely a big boost after he hurt his back in the season opener. He missed the last game against Northwestern St. but he was not needed in the 70-6 win against the FCS Bears. While Petty returns, it is his main targets that we are concerned about and none of them will be in action tonight. Receivers Clay Fuller and Levi Norwood were already out but it is now clear that Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman will also not play tonight due to leg injuries. All total, that is 3,111 yards, 185 receptions and 26 touchdowns from last season that will not be on the field tonight. Buffalo is coming off a loss last week at Army but it made a gallant effort in trying to come back after trailing by 30 as it scored the final 22 points to lose by eight. The Bulls racked up 554 yards of offense and they will give the Bears their biggest test of the season. Baylor has only four starters back on defense and Buffalo can take advantage as it won't take much on offense to stay within this huge number. This line has gone up because of the Petty news but the other key injuries are not being taken into consideration. This is a revenge game for Buffalo which lost at Baylor last season 70-13 and while the chances of winning are slim, staying within the number are good and even if Baylor does build a lead, Petty will likely exit to stay healthy for the Big XII opener in two weeks. 10* (110) Buffalo Bulls |
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09-11-14 | Houston +18.5 v. BYU | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 77 h 53 m | Show |
BYU is coming off a big win over Texas to improve to 2-0 on the season, both wins coming on the road. This is the home opener for the Cougars and based on their lopsided wins, they are laying a bigger than expected number and I feel it will prove to be too big. Houston easily took care of Grambling 47-0 to win its first game of the season following a season opening loss against UTSA. That was a game the Cougars never got in because of turnovers so that 20-point loss is somewhat skewed. Both teams are on the plus side in yardage differentials and it is not as big as everyone thinks. BYU has a +1.7 yppl margin which is solid as anything on the plus side is obviously good but Houston checks in with a +1.4 yppl margin so it is not far behind. BYU won a thriller against Houston last season 47-46 which brings revenge into play as it snapped Houston's undefeated start to the season which was 5-0. The Cougars are 0-9 in their last nine home games against teams playing with revenge. Additionally, BYU is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games coming off two consecutive road wins since 1992 and it falls into a negative situation where we play against home favorites after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (105) Houston Cougars |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. While the road team is getting points here, I don't know if the Chargers necessarily should be. San Diego is coming off a 9-7 season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and won their first playoff game since 2008. The Chargers should be even better this season after winning the yardage battle is 11 of 16 regular season games. According to reports, the Chargers offense is clicking under new OC Frank Reich so they could be a dangerous sleeper if the defense improves. The Chargers addressed the team's two most glaring needs heading into the offseason by upgrading the talent at cornerback and edge rusher. Arizona went 10-6 last season but failed to make the playoffs and I don't see it getting any better this season. The defense was the strength a season ago but the Cardinals will be without the team's best defensive player in Daryl Washington (suspension), along with defensive tackle Darnell Dockett (ACL injury) and perhaps Tyrann Mathieu. Additionally, Cardinals running back Andre Ellington is expected to miss the game, which is a huge blow because so much of this offense is designed around his abilities. San Diego was 5-1-1 ATS last season as a road underdog and is 9-3-1 ATS in that role the last two seasons. Look for the Chargers to have too much on both sides of the ball with so many key players out for Arizona. 10* (491) San Diego Chargers |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants +6.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. The Giants are coming off a disappointing season so a quick start is could be the answer. After missing the playoffs the last two years, the schedule is on the side of New York as a win here could lead to a 5-0 start prior to back-to-back road games at Philadelphia and Dallas. The offense was ugly last season as the Giants managed a mere 18.4 ppg and they were outgained in 10 of 16 games. A new system has been put in place in order for Eli Manning to get rid of the ball quicker and help avoid a repeat where he was sacked 39 times and had the worse passer rating of his career. Even though we didn't see it in the preseason, I expect it to improve. Detroit closed on a four-game losing streak and while I do think they will be a better team this season, the Lions are laying too many points here. They have a wealth of offensive weapons and have Jim Caldwell as the new boss, but they have been chirping about being Super Bowl contenders and that is a little farfetched at this point. They have a tough matchup as only four of 16 opponents managed to outgain their average passer rating against the Giants last season and overall, they ranked sixth in passer rating allowed. The Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while the Giants have covered four of their last five road games. 10* (489) New York Giants |
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09-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 81 h 17 m | Show | |
After getting absolutely embarrassed in the Super Bowl last season, the Broncos will be on a mission and it starts Week One. Denver was the best team in the NFL for the better part of last season as their three regular season losses were by a touchdown or less until the debacle in February against the Seahawks. After opening the season a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the number, the Broncos went to Indianapolis and suffered their first loss to the Colts despite easily winning the yardage battle. It is safe to say Denver wants revenge against Peyton Manning's former employer. The Colts made it back to the playoffs for a second straight season behind Andrew Luck and after an incredible comeback at home against the Chiefs, they were destroyed in New England to end their season. The schedule maker did them no favors to open this season as they are in a very tough spot opening night. Despite a 23-12 record the last two years, Indianapolis has actually been outscored over that stretch 834-824 showing when it wins, it wins small but when it loses, it loses big. 10 of those 12 losses have been by double-digits including six by 20 or more points. One huge matchup factor is that the Colts offensive line is in shambles and the Broncos should be all over Luck most of the night. The Broncos fall into a great situation as we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points. 9* (488) Denver Broncos |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007 but there is a real possibility that could change this season. The Buccaneers started 0-8 last season which cost head coach Greg Schiano his job and they went out and brought in Lovie Smith which I feel was the best hire in the offseason. He was great in Chicago but was fired despite a 10-6 record in his final season so he brings in a winning attitude right from the start. Tampa Bay has an easy schedule and is a sleeper pick to win the division just like Carolina was a season ago. The Panthers went from three straight losing seasons to winning the NFC South thanks to an 11-1 run that vaulted them into the playoffs. They did make an early exit in the playoffs and this division has notoriously been up for grabs every season as there has not been a repeat champion ever. Carolina has the second ranked scoring defense in the NFL last season and it will be stout once again but there are questions on the offense. The offensive line is a mess and quarterback Cam Newton is not healthy. Newton will be wearing a flak jacket to protect a hairline rib fracture. Leaving during the offseason were Steve Smith Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn Jr., leaving Newton with a host of new receivers including veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant so the offense is a big question right now. The Buccaneers defense will be better even though it wasn't horrible last season as along with the defensive minded Smith, Leslie Frazier takes over as defensive coordinator. The Panthers have failed to cover five straight season openers and the favorite is 6-1 ATS over the last seven meetings. 10* (484) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-07-14 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +5.5 | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 74 h 47 m | Show | |
The Patriots are once again heavy favorites to win the AFC East and despite the incredible success of this team, it is hard to believe that they have not won a Super Bowl since 2004. The talent is no doubt in place to get there again but this is a tough spot on opening week. New England has been an average road team over the years and last season alone, it was just 2-7 ATS on the highway including going 1-4 ATS as a road favorite. Miami has been very average for the last five years since last making the playoffs back in 2008. The Dolphins are coming off an 8-8 season but the pieces are in place to make an improvement this year. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is in his third season and has a new offensive coordinator in Bill Lazor who came over from Philadelphia and that is a big edge as the Patriots should have trouble in how to prepare for the new look offense. The Dolphins are expecting big things out of Tannehill under Lazor, and they could have some creative packages waiting to surprise the Patriots on Sunday. This is an overadjusted line considering the Patriots were actually underdogs here back on December 15th and now we are seeing a line differential of over a touchdown and there is no way New England has gotten that much better or that Miami has gotten that much worse to deserve a move like this. The Patriots had won seven straight meetings prior to last season when the Dolphins won the aforementioned game so they can build off the confidence of that one. Miami is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog the last two seasons and the home team has covered four straight in this series. 9* (482) Miami Dolphins |
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09-07-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
There are three home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Two years ago, the Falcons hosted the NFC Championship. Last year, the wheels fell off and Atlanta went 4-12. After taking such a hard fall in 2013, I expect the Falcons to bounce back and while they may not be as good as two years ago, they won't be as bad as last season. Injuries played a big role in their regression but Atlanta was still competitive as of those 12 losses, seven were by a touchdown or less including five by four points or less. New Orleans meanwhile bounced back from a 7-9 season in 2012 without Sean Payton to a 12-6 record last season that again included a trip to the playoffs. Expectations are high once again for the Saints and they do have a schedule that sets up pretty well for success. They are a different team on the road however as they went 3-5 on the highway compared to 8-0 at home last season and they were a bust as a road chalk, going 0-4 ATS in that role. The home team has covered five straight meetings in this series and under head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home during the first two weeks of the season. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian situation based on last season as we play on underdogs or pickems who won only 25 percent to 40 percent of their games last season. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (464) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
After five straight seasons of making it to the playoffs including a Super Bowl win in 2012, the Ravens went just 8-8 last season and failed to make the postseason. Disappointing seasons from quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice contributed to that and even a little better output for them would have gotten them to the postseason considering five losses came by five points or less including four by a field goal or less. While Rice will not be in action as he is serving a two-game suspension, we are catching a great number here in the opening game. The Bengals are the slight favorites to repeat as AFC North champions following an 11-5 season a year ago. They could not get out of the first round of the playoffs for the third straight season though but they again will be right in the mix. Cincinnati was undefeated at home during the regular season but went just 3-5 on the road with just one of those wins coming against a team with a .500 or better record. The Bengals have dropped their season openers in five of the last seven years including the last two, going 1-4-1 ATS in that stretch. Baltimore meanwhile has won five of its last six openers with the one loss coming last year in Denver in a big revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season. Baltimore has a great home field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh. The Ravens are 16-7 ATS L23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less in the Harbaugh era. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings and has covered four straight in this series. 10* (474) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-06-14 | Duke v. Troy +19.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 48 m | Show |
Because bettors have significant short-term memories, lines need to adjusted based on recent results and that is certainly the case here. Duke rolled over Elon last week by 39 points as it outgained the Phoenix by 239 total yards and it now hits the road for the first time this season. While it was a dominating win, Elon was coming off a 2-10 season and breaking in a new head coach. While the Blue Devils were 5-0 on the road last year, none of the wins came by more than what they are favored by this week. Troy meanwhile got pummeled at UAB, losing by 38 points and getting outgained by 218 yards. The Trojans return home where they have had only one losing season the last decade and of their 12 losses over that stretch, only one has been by more than 17 points which came in 2011. I think we will see a different team at Veterans Memorial Stadium where Troy has lost only once in its last 21 home openers. Now Duke comes in as a massive road favorite and it is completely inflated. Last season, the Blue Devils were 13.5-point home favorites against Troy and now they are favored by close to a touchdown more on the road. They were a road favorite twice last season at Memphis and Wake Forest but both of those lines were a touchdown or less. The last time Duke was a road favorite of more than 17 points? You have to go back to 1994. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (362) Troy Trojans |
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09-06-14 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +20 | Top | 41-3 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 15 m | Show |
We played against Vanderbilt last Thursday and easily won as the Commodores lost by 30 points against Temple and now they go from 8.5-point favorites to 20-point underdogs in the span of a week. That is what we call overreaction. The loss to the Owls was not a good one but Vanderbilt was outgained by just 73 yards and it was seven turnovers which led to 27 points, many of which came on a short field. Defensively, it was a pretty solid effort from Vanderbilt and that should continue here. Mississippi was on the opposite end of things last week as it defeated Boise St. by 22 points but only outgained the Broncos by 59 yards. The Rebels were up by only one point early in the fourth quarter before a barrage of four touchdowns led to the runaway victory. Two of those came on a short field while another came on a 76-yard bomb so Mississippi was fortunate the game was not closer at the end. Because of the two differing outcomes, the Rebels are now massive favorites on the road and while it is not at the Vanderbilt campus, it is at LP Field in Nashville. Mississippi has been favored by 20 points on the road only once over the last decade which came against Tulane and resulted in a loss and it doesn't deserve to be here against another SEC foe. The Commodores are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record while gong 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games anywhere against teams with a losing record. 10* (348) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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09-06-14 | Fresno State +11 v. Utah | Top | 27-59 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
Fresno St. is coming off a blowout loss against USC, it second straight loss to the Trojans going back to last season's Las Vegas Bowl. The Bulldogs opened up 10-0 last year and were making a run at a BCS Bowl game but a loss at San Jose St. killed that. Now they are trying to move on without quarterback Derek Carr who is now taking snaps with the Oakland Raiders. Saturday was not pretty for the defense as it allowed 701 yards against USC but we should see a huge improvement here as it takes a step down in class. Utah was solid on offense last week against Idaho St. but that should be the case when facing a school from the FCS. Last year, the Utes defeated Weber St. 70-7 only to come back and lose at home the next week against Oregon St. so big wins do not always lead to momentum boosts. Utah has gone 5-7 each of the last two seasons and it brings back 12 starters from last year so there isn't a whole lot of reason to believe it will be vastly improved. The Utes have been a double-digit home favorite over FBS teams four times the last three years, going 1-3 ATS in those games. The Bulldogs need to run the ball to be effective and last week, they gained more yards per rushing play (4.8) than passing play (4.4), which had not happened in a regular-season game since a victory at Nevada during the 2012 season. I like the bounceback angles here as bettors remember last week and ride it. The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 20 points while the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. 10* (337) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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09-06-14 | South Alabama -3 v. Kent State | Top | 23-13 | Win | 102 | 71 h 47 m | Show |
South Alabama kicks its season off with a road game at Kent St. as it looks to improve upon last season. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year. They bring back 15 starters including nine on an offense that averaged 29.4 ppg and 426 ypg and the defense should be an improved unit as well as they return all four starters in the secondary. Kent St. is coming off a loss against Ohio last week 17-14 as the Bobcats kicked a 44-yard field goal on the last play of the game. It lost the game despite having a 4-0 advantage in turnover margin and that is a rarity which shows how poorly the Golden Flashes really played. They were outgained by 142 total yards and while the defense was solid in allowing only 17 points, the offense could muster up only 295 yards. The Golden Flashes are young up front and really struggled to run the ball last Saturday against Ohio and making matters worse, Trayion Durham is again questionable this week. Here we play against home teams off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Kent St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games while going 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. South Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. 10* (335) South Alabama Jaguars |
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09-06-14 | Buffalo v. Army -3.5 | 39-47 | Win | 100 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
Army takes to the field for the first time this season as it was off on opening week which gives it a big edge in preparation ability. The Black Knights suffered through another losing season last year and head coach Rich Ellerson was replaced by Jeff Monken who comes over from Georgia Southern. The transition should be seamless however as Monken bring in a similar triple option system and Army has 16 starters returning, its most since 2004. This is an important game to get the season moving the right way as the next three games are all on the road. Buffalo is coming off a less than impressive win over Duquesne in its season opener last week as it won by just 10 points while outgaining the Dukes by only 99 yards. The Bulls have only 11 starters back from last season and losing running back Branden Oliver and linebacker Khalil Mack are huge. They still could be strong with their passing attack behind quarterback Joe Licata but losing three of his top four targets from last season is also another liability. The Bulls are 5-18 on the road since head coach Jeff Quinn took over in 2010. Army has lost 15 straight road games which puts even more importance on this one with Stanford and Wake Forest on deck. Buffalo is just 7-12 ATS as a road underdog under Quinn and the Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. While Buffalo will be out to win, it is hard to overlook the fact it has a home revenge game against Baylor coming up on Friday. 9* (320) Army Black Knights |
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09-06-14 | Western Kentucky +6 v. Illinois | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky was a home underdog last week against Bowling Green but that matter little as it put up 59 points and piled up 708 yards off offense in the 28-point victory. The Hilltoppers made it to a bowl game in 2012 with seven wins but were overlooked last season despite having eight wins so there is some big motivation going on in Bowling Green, KY. Even though they only return four starts on defense, they did a good job in limiting the potent Falcons offense and they take a step down this week. Illinois needed a fourth quarter rally to get by Youngstown St., scoring three fourth quarter touchdowns to avoid the upset. The Illini mustered just 363 yards of offense which is over 64 yards less than what they averaged last season. They lost seven of eight games to close last season with the only win coming against 1-11 Purdue but by only four points so the last two victories have not been very solid. Eight starters are back on defense but that isn't necessarily a good thing considering they allowed 35.4 ppg and 482 ypg last season. The home field has not been strong for Illinois as it is 6-10 the last two plus years and going back, it is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Western Kentucky is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. Additionally, the Hilltoppers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. Don't be surprised to see the outright upset here. 9* (327) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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09-06-14 | Akron +14.5 v. Penn State | 3-21 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
Akron took care of business at home last week as it destroyed Howard 41-0, outgaining the Bison 513-216. The Zips take a huge step up in competition here but I think they will be more than up for the challenge as they are moving in the right direction under head coach Terry Bowden. After suffering though three straight 1-11 seasons, the Zips went 5-7 last year including wins in four of their last five games. With seven starters back on both sides of the ball, we should not see a regression from this team. Let's not forget Akron went to Michigan last season and nearly pulled off the upset. Penn St. is coming off a last second victory over UCF last week in Ireland so not only does it present a letdown possibility, the travel aspect is hugely in our favor. Coming back from that long trip can take a lot out of a team and that is what I expect here. This is the home opener for Penn St. so the place will be jazzed but getting up for Akron for a noon game with the Big Ten road opener on deck for next week will be difficult. Add to that, the Zips played their opener on Thursday so they have had plenty of extra time for rest and preparation. Also, Akron quarterback Kyle Pohl had three touchdown passes in the first six minutes of the game, meaning that many of the Zips starters called it a night pretty early. The Zips are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 20 points while the Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. 9* (341) Akron Zips |
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09-05-14 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College +4 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
Boston College and Pittsburgh meet for the first time since 2004 when they were in the Big East. The Eagles are coming off an impressive opener as it was able to take down Massachusetts with relative ease after a slow start. Boston College outgained the Minutemen by 309 total yards and while Massachusetts is expected to be one of the worst teams in the country, it was a big game for the Boston College offense which lost a ton from last season. The Eagles gained 511 total yards and Florida transfer Tyler Murphy was outstanding at quarterback. Pittsburgh was equally impressive as it destroyed Delaware 62-0, outgaining the Blue Hens by 444 total yards. As dominating as it was, the Panthers are another team that is going through some rebuilding changes, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Sure they allowed only 57 total yards but it is tough to gauge exactly how good that is when playing an FCS opponent and a very average one at that. Last season, the Eagles went 5-1 at Alumni Stadium, giving Florida St. a competitive game in their only defeat. They were able to cover both games as a home underdog and it is hard to substantiate them being a home underdog here with so many question marks still looming on the other side. Boston College falls into a great early season situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent). 10* (304) Boston College Eagles |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued last season when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. This year, the past Super Bowl Champion gets to host again as Seattle opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champ to open the season with a victory and improve to 12-2 in season openers the last 14 years. The Seahawks home field edge is the best in football as they have won 17 of their last 18 home games, losing last year to Arizona as Russell Wilson had one of his worst starts in his young career. Green Bay looks to start the season strong following a poor season last year that was directly related to Aaron Rodgers being out for a portion of the season. The Packers should be able to get back into the elite club of the NFL but this is not the place to start as this is a bad spot and a bad matchup. The defense struggles against quarterbacks that move and while the Packers offense is one of the best, these are the defenses they struggle against the most. Going back, Seattle is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 home games while going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last sox home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. Under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 25-10 ATS in its 35 home games. Green Bay is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. 10* (462) Seattle Seahawks |
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09-04-14 | Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
UTSA came through for us last Friday and while it wasn't overly dominating, it was good enough to put us back on them here. The Roadrunners won by 20 points thanks to a +3 turnover margin advantage but the potential was there to be more dictating, 14 penalties for 115 yards limited their production on both sides. Still, the defense was outstanding as it allowed only 213 yards against a potentially potent offense and it is hard to look past the experience of this team as UTSA has 12 starters back. Arizona was very impressive last week as it destroyed UNLV by 45 points while outgaining the Rebels by 416 total yards. The Wildcats put up 787 total yards which was the most of any team last weekend so the Roadrunners will have their hands full but I expect them to be up to the task in their home opener. This is a very young Arizona offense so we cannot take last week's performance too serious against a UNLV team that has a bowl ban and motivation is low. UTSA lost by 25 points at Arizona last year but it was only outgained by 43 total yards and it will be out for revenge. Arizona is 3-14 ERA in its last 17 road games after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more yards while UTSA falls into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -106 | 108 h 38 m | Show |
The Miami Hurricanes made some noise last season by starting off 7-0 and making it as high as seventh in the polls but then they ran into Florida St. and were blown out, the start of three straight losses. While the start of last season was special, it could be even better in 2014 as Miami enters this season free of distractions with there no longer being a cloud hanging over the program because of NCAA investigations. Last season, we talked about how freshman quarterback Jameis Winston was the real deal before his first game against Pittsburgh and that proved correct. Miami is in a similar situation this season as it is also starting a freshman quarterback in Brad Kaaya and he too is the real deal. With the healthy return of running back Duke Johnson and a great corps of receivers, the offense should be solid and will go up against a Louisville defense that returns only four starters from last season. Miami is catching Louisville at the best possible time as the Cardinals break in a new quarterback after Teddy Bridgewater fled to the NFL and his replacement does not have the same hype. Will Gardner takes over and while he has had a great spring and fall, he will be without his top target as receiver Devante Parker is out with a foot injury and the Preseason ACC First Team players is expected to miss six weeks. That is a big loss for sure. The Hurricanes defense was atrocious last season but they bring back seven starters and the defense will be tougher and more disrupting. The game is a rematch of last season's Russell Athletic Bowl, a game #18 Louisville won 36-9 so the Hurricanes will be out for revenge and ruin the Cardinals ACC Debut. Miami is 10-1 ATS under head coach Al Golden when the line is +3 to -3 while going 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as conference underdogs of seven points or less. 10* (209) Miami Hurricanes |
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08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 54 m | Show |
LSU is once again one of the top teams in the SEC despite losing a ton of talent to the NFL including its starting quarterback, starting running back and top two receivers. The Tigers are now in rebuilding mode and while the recruiting was once again strong, we may see some early issues in the beginning of the season. LSU is going to pound the ball on the ground because of the lack of experience at quarterback. The Tigers will start either sophomore Anthony Jennings or true freshman Brandon Harris and they have never had a true first-year player start a season opener at quarterback. Wisconsin went 9-3 during the regular season last year with all three losses coming by a touchdown or less and the Badgers are the favorite to win the Big Ten West. Wisconsin brings back only 10 returning starters but has 23 different players who made at least one start last year so there is plenty of depth and experience. While the Tigers have never lost a non-conference regular season game under head coach Les Miles, going 45-0 over that stretch, they have not faced too many tests along the way either. In the past 10 years, Wisconsin is 34-2 against non-conference opponents in the regular season, with their only two losses coming to Oregon State in 2012 and Arizona State in 2013, both of which ended with controversial calls against Wisconsin. This game takes place in Houston so there is no real home field edge for either side although LSU should have the higher fan base but it will be insignificant. These two teams are more evenly matched than what the line is telling us and being on a neutral field, I have this game as a pickem so we are catching significant value. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (204) Wisconsin Badgers |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -7.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 101 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
After consecutive double-digit winning seasons, Georgia took a step backward last year with only eight wins and finished the season with an 8-5 record after losing to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs suffered through numerous injuries to key players on offense, came into the season with just three returning starters on defense, were -7 in turnover margin and suffered four of their losses by five points or less. All of that equates to a big turnaround this year and they have dropped at low as 18-1 in some spots to win the National Championship Game. Granted, Georgia has to move on without Aaron Murray at quarterback but Hutson Mason is very skilled and he has a lot around him including a healthy Todd Gurley at running back. The defense now brings back eight starters and will be vastly improved. The good news here is they face a Clemson offense that lost some huge impact players including quarterback Taj Boyd, receiver Sammy Watkins and running back Roderick McDowell. I do expect Clemson to have a solid season but this is not the opponent it wants to be facing in its first game of the season ,especially one that is playing with revenge. The Tigers won the meeting last year by a field goal despite getting outgained by 78 total yards and the change in venue only solidifies the revenge factor as Georgia has won 16 straight home openers and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the ACC. The number may seem big here as the teams are only four spots away in the Preseason AP Poll but we all know those rankings mean little. This could be considered a statement game for Georgia as since 2008, it has started every season ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 but only once did it finish the season ranked higher than where it started. This is a big game to get the season rolling. 10* (182) Georgia Bulldogs |
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08-30-14 | Arkansas +20.5 v. Auburn | 21-45 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 55 m | Show | |
Auburn came into last season with some pretty low expectations following a 3-9 season in 2012 but after losing to LSU in its fourth game, the Tigers ran the table all the way to the BCS Championship where they lost to Florida St. by a field goal. They pulled off some absolute miracles against Georgia and Alabama so they were fortunate to get to where they got. Now expectations are extremely high and I feel this team takes a step the other way. The offense will lead the way once again thanks to close to a three-touchdown ppg improvement and two hundred ypg improvement from 2012 but there is some uncertainty for this game. Quarterback Nick Marshall will not start the game because of a marijuana possession citation and it is unknown how long he will sit. That keeps Arkansas in the mix early on and while Auburn exceeded expectations last year, the Razorbacks severally underachieved. They went just 3-9 and went 0-8 in the SEC, the first time they have gone winless since joining the conference. It wasn't because the team was bad coming in but they were hurt by a lot of injuries and four of their losses came by a touchdown or less. How much they improve is in question as the Razorbacks are the only team in the nation to play seven conference games against teams ranked in the preseason Top 25. while the improvements may not show up in the win column, we should see it by being more competitive and we are getting a number with Arkansas that is loosely based on what happened last year for both teams. The Tigers were a covering machine last year, going 12-2 ATS but they have not been favored by this many points in an SEC game since being favored by 16.5 points against Aransas in 2008 and lost. Arkansas has won three of its past four at Auburn, including two of those against ranked Tiger teams. 9* (179) Arkansas Razorbacks |
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08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11 v. Houston | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 83 h 21 m | Show |
Houston comes into the season as a sleeper team from the AAC as it returns 17 starters from last year's 8-5 squad. The Cougars will be potent once again on offense but the issue is the defense where they allowed big numbers once again under head coach Tony Levine, his second with the program. Houston benefited from a +25 turnover margin last season and those things certainly tend to reverse themselves or at least become more in line to the median the following year. Texas-San Antonio is also coming off a wining season and this is a team that could fly under the radar for at least the first part of the season. The Roadrunner have only been in existence since 2009 and didn't start competing until 2011 but having Larry Coker as the head coach was a perfect hire for a new program. They were ineligible for a bowl game last season and they bring a lot of momentum into this season as they won their last five games and carrying that over should not be an issue with 20 starts returning from last year. UTSA is picked to win the C-USA West by a lot of outlets and the schedule sets up well to do so. They went -7 in turnover margin last season and that comes directly into play in this one as the Roadrunners coughed it up five times against Houston last year in a 59-28 loss. Making it even more frustrating is the fact that UTSA actually outgained Houston by two total yards in that game signaling it was a lot closer than the final score indicated. UTSA was favored in that game by a field goal so now we are seeing a line move that is roughly 14 points in most spots and that is too big of an adjustment. The Roadrunners are 9-3 ATS lifetime on the road and this atmosphere will not be intimidating to the them at all. 10* (151) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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08-28-14 | Temple +16 v. Vanderbilt | 37-7 | Win | 100 | 198 h 2 m | Show | |
While it may seem like a big shocker but the team with the second best record over the last 20 games behind Alabama isn't one of the powerhouse programs but it is Vanderbilt. The Commodores have gone 16-4 over their last 20 games following a 9-4 record last year which came after closing out 2012 with seven straight wins. Don't expect this run to continue however. Vanderbilt lost arguably the most talent in the conference based on volume as they have to replace 12 starters on both sides of the ball. Taking nothing away from last year but they had three wins by four points or fewer and benefitted from a positive turnover margin. Additionally, they lost head coach James Franklin to Penn St. so we should see some growing pains early in the season and listing the Commodores as such a big favorite is way too aggressive. Temple struggled to a 2-10 season last year which was its second straight losing season after three consecutive winning campaigns. While that record seems awful, four losses came by a combined nine points and its 8-4 record against the number shows that it was pretty competitive despite the lack of wins. The Owls return 13 starters from last season including eight on defense which was its downfall last season, allowing 29.8 ppg. We can expect a much better season from the stop unit this year. Quarterback play should continue to be a strength for the Owls this season, as sophomore P.J. Walker returns under center after a strong debut. Walker ranked third in the league in pass efficiency behind Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles. Temple was a perfect 5-0 ATS as a road underdog last season while going 7-1 ATS getting points overall. Grab the generous points Thursday night. 9* (141) Temple Owls |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers +8 v. Washington State | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 197 h 12 m | Show |
Rutgers begins its first season in the Big Ten and many are picking the Scarlet Knights to finish last in the conference in addition to last in the East Division. While they probably won't be going bowling after making the postseason the last three years, this is still a very talented team that returns 16 starters from last season and they should be a competitive bunch. The schedule is not only brutal but they are facing 12 teams they did not face last season so there will be no familiarity in gameplanning. Rutgers has a good opportunity to open the season 4-1 however as this is a very winnable game in my opinion. Washington St. is nothing special and this game isn't even taking place on its home field as it is being played in Seattle. The Cougars will clearly have the fan base but it is just not the same. They finished 6-6 last season and went to a bowl game for the first time since 2003 but lost to Colorado St. There is little optimism for improvement this year and while the offense should again be potent, the loss of three starters on the offensive line is a concern. Washington St. has been favored against a BCS opponent just three times in the Mike Leach era. It was a 1.5-point favorite against California and Utah last year and while it won both games, there is little reason to believe that the Cougars should be more than a touchdown favorite here. Rutgers falls into a great contrarian as we play on any team in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from last season who lost four or more of their last 5 games and finished with a losing record. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Rutgers Scarlet Knights |
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08-28-14 | Tulane v. Tulsa -5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 195 h 13 m | Show |
It was a huge disappointing season for Tulsa last year. The Golden Hurricane finished 3-9 overall including 2-6 in C-USA and now they take the jump to the much more competitive AAC. The good news is that Tulsa should be much more competitive as well. Last season, they had just nine starters coming back from an 11-3 season in 2012 which was its third straight winning season. Additionally, the Golden Hurricane suffered a ton of injuries along the way but now they are healthy and have 15 starters back including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. Losing their last five home games last season should have them pretty amped up come Thursday night on national television. Tulane was a pleasant surprise last season as it went 7-5 and went to its first bowl game since 2002 but ended up losing to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. Overall, the Green Wave dropped four of their last five games so they come in with very little momentum and they will also have to make up for the loss of eight starters. They still struggled away from home last season despite the overall success as they were 2-4 in true road games and have not won more than two road games in a season in over a decade. Tulsa will be playing with revenge in mind as it lost at Tulane 14-7 which was the first loss to the Green Wave after eight straight wins. All of those wins were covers as well and the last four home victories for Tulsa over the Green Wave were by 35, 28, 49 and 35 points and with these teams going in different directions from last season, I expect an easy win for the home team here. 10* (138) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
I will be using some of the same analysis from the other play as it pertains here as well. While the Denver offense has been the best in the NFL this season, Seattle has the ingredients to slow it down, not necessarily stop it but that isn't imperative. The Seahawks offense has not looked it best of late but it will be facing a Broncos defense that has been playing over its head the last four games by allowing no more than 17 points the last four games. They had allowed 17 points or less only once in their previous 14 games and the Seahawks are ranked eighth in the league in points scored so they will get their production in what I feel is a very good matchup. Defense is the key when it comes to the big game. This is just the fifth Super Bowl since the AFL-NFL merger to match up the No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 scoring defense. It's been advantage defense with those teams going 4-1 in past Super Bowls. Additionally, this is the 16th time that the defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL has made the Super Bowl since the merger. The previous 15 teams went 12-3 in those Super Bowls. As mentioned, I don't think Seattle can stop the Broncos offense, despite the top ranked overall and scoring defense in the NFL but I do think the Seahawks can certainly slow them down with the best secondary in football. They were first in yards allowed, first in interceptions and first in yards per attempt. Any sort of pass rush will get Peyton Manning flustered enough which will lead to mistakes or lack of production at the very least. Seattle is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning record including a perfect 6-0 ATS record when the opposition has a winning percentage of .750 or better. Additionally, the Seahawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine game when getting points. Looking at power rankings alone and Seattle is the better team that has played a tougher schedule to get here, including the playoffs. I was hoping to get a better line with the public lining up behind Denver and while that still may happen, we will pull the trigger now on the Seahawks getting points of any kind as they should be the team that is favored on Sunday. 10* (101) Seattle Seahawks
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -101 | 151 h 12 m | Show |
After the first meeting in Seattle this season, won by the Seahawks by 26 points, many are expecting a similar outcome in the NFC Championship. Not here. The 49ers are a much different team this time around and in that first meeting in Seattle, they were without a few players, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis for the second half, that are now back in the lineup. While there may be some who think that San Francisco playing for a third straight week in the playoffs is at a disadvantage but that is not the case. The 49ers momentum is off the charts right now plus the past three Super Bowl champions have had to play three straight playoff games so there is hardly a disadvantage. San Francisco is the only team entering the conference championships that didn't have a first-round bye and has had to play on the road. With eight straight wins including the last three all on the road, it is far from a big deal. We all know Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL and while it is coming off a seemingly easy victory over the Saints, what is hidden is the fact that the Seahawks allowed 409 total yards and were outgained by 132 yards. That is not good news facing a 49ers offense that is moving the ball with great precision right now. On the other side, the 49ers are ranked fifth in the NFL in total defense and third in scoring defense and they have allowed only 15.2 ppg in its past 11 games. San Francisco manhandled Carolina's offense in seven goal-to-go situations in the first half, preventing them from scoring a short touchdown with two great goal-line stands. There are still many 3.5's out there and that is the number to get on as a game decided by a field goal either way is what we are expecting here. San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better while going 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (303) San Francisco 49ers
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots +5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 52 m | Show |
Denver opened as high as -7 in some spots and that number came down almost immediately as the early money hammered New England. While we are not getting the same big number here, we are still getting a very strong number as the overvaluation of the Broncos continues. Denver outgained San Diego by 104 totals yards and despite a 24-7 lead, it was unable to hold onto the cover as the Chargers suck in the backdoor. Taking nothing away from San Diego, but when comparing lines, the Chargers are not only three points worse than New England which is what the numbers are telling us. The Broncos and Patriots are very evenly matched as their one-game record difference justifies but the Broncos are still getting too much credit here. The home/road splits are having an effect on that but when looking at New England's four road losses, three were by four points or less while the other one was by seven points in a torrential rainstorm in Cincinnati. A big advantage is that for the Patriots, they are as healthy and as deep as they have been all season in the secondary, which is ideal. The matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning is epic in itself and while both have been incredible throughout their careers, we have to give an edge to Brady as he has won 10 of the previous 14 matchups between the two including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs. While past history can mean little, the fact that he has Bill Belichick with him on the sidelines is huge in the postseason. While the Patriots postseason ATS numbers have been average of late, they are usually favored and they have won 17 of 25 games with Brady at quarterback. New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in January. 10* (301) New England Patriots
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 42 m | Show |
We won with San Diego on Sunday as it went on the road and took care of the Bengals with relative ease. Many will be bucking the Chargers this week as they feel they cannot manage another strong game for a second straight week, especially against the high powered Broncos. I may be in the minority but I think the Chargers can in fact do it again and they certainly are not intimidated by playing in Denver as they have already won here, handing the Broncos their lone home loss of the season. Sure, Denver will be out for revenge but that does not mean San Diego will be any less motivated this time around. The Broncos were in a similar position last year as heavy home favorites but they ended up losing to Baltimore in overtime in a game that they never covered. That will have no impact here whatsoever as Denver cannot be expected to pick it up a notch to avoid a similar outcome. It comes down to matchups and the Chargers do in fact match up very well with Denver. And a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. The Denver offense has run fewer than 65 plays in two games this season, both against McCoy's Chargers and that is no coincidence. The Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In two games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. Quarterback Philip Rivers says that this is his favorite road venue to play at and he has quietly put together one of his best seasons ever and I expect that to continue against the banged up and below average Broncos defense. San Diego falls into a solid situation as we p[lay against home favorites that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* San Diego Chargers
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 126 h 28 m | Show |
We were on the Colts last week as they were able to overcome a 38-10 deficit and put out the miraculous victory in the second greatest playoff comeback of all time. While it may be hard to imagine a letdown effect in the playoffs, Indianapolis could very well see some of that this week. As mentioned last week, the Colts are playing arguably their best football of the season, this is the toughest task of this current stretch. Indianapolis has won four straight games but it has outgained opponents by only an average of only 56 ypg and three of those games were at home. The Colts are 5-3 on the road but one of those wins came against Jacksonville while two others came by three points against non-playoff teams Tennessee and Houston. Yes, there were impressive wins over San Francisco and Kansas City, but neither of those teams were playing with extra rest like New England is. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye including easy wins the last two years in the Divisional round against teams coming off home wins. New England is 8-0 at home this season, covering six of those games including a perfect 6-0 ATS when the line is less than 9.5 points. This is where Tom Brady shines and he could have a field day Saturday night. The Indianapolis defense struggled to stop the Chiefs Sunday, particularly through the air, making it seem as though there could be some holes there for New England to exploit. And with a solid running game, the balanced attack will be too much for the Colts. Here, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit divisional win and they are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 home games in December and January. The Colts meanwhile are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (114) New England Patriots
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 38 m | Show |
Last season, every favorite covered in the opening round of the playoffs but this year, the Wildcard round was an underdog bettors dream as all four underdogs covered the closing lines so late bettors were able to cash all four tickets. We were on every one of those dogs but we will be switching it up in the first game on Saturday and backing the Seahawks. Seattle had an opening round bye which has been a big benefit the last two years as teams with a bye have gone 6-2 in the Divisional round and Seattle knows all about this as it was taken out by Atlanta last season following a road win. Now the Seahawks are on the opposite side of things as they now host a team coming off a road win. The Saints won their first ever playoff road game at Philadelphia but the Eagles did not possess the same home field edge that the Seahawks have. They are 7-1 at home and one of those wins was a complete domination of New Orleans as they held the Saints to just 188 total yards. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson had one of his best games of the season, completing 22 of 30 passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns. I do not think they will dominate as much this time around but they should walk out with a comfortable win on Saturday. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record while the Seahawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. They also have a great situation on their side as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Look for New Orleans to put up a better fight but the Seahawks pull away late for another comfortable win. 10* (112) Seattle Seahawks
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State -9 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
While this is the National Championship game and the biggest game of the entire season, it is not the biggest betting game of the entire season and should not be treated that way as this one is no different than opening night. The ATS records of both sides suggest that each team has been covering at record clips as not only are Florida St. and Auburn considered the two best teams in the country right now, they are also the two best covering teams as both come in with 11-2 ATS marks. The Seminoles have covered six straight while the Tigers have covered 10 straight so there is no significant streak to go against. So this one really comes down to the matchups and this is where Florida St. has a significant advantage. Auburn looks to keep the streak of SEC champions going and make it eight in a row but what sets the Tigers apart from all the rest is they have no defense. Auburn is ranked 88th in the country in total defense and six of the seven previous champions were ranked in the top ten in total defense. Coincidentally, the lone exception was Auburn in 2010 but they were a much more respectable 56th. The one thing the Tigers do well this season is limiting redzone touchdowns as they are eighth in redzone defense but this is the most balanced team they have faced this season with three 500-yard rushers and three 900-yards receivers so the Seminoles have too many options for Auburn to contend with. On the other side, the Tigers have the best rushing offense in the nation but if they get behind and need to pass, they will rely on the 107th ranked passing offense and that is not a good thing. Florida St. is third in total defense, 13th in rushing defense, first in passing defense and first in scoring defense. The Seminoles simply possess too much on both sides of the ball for Auburn to keep up and its luck finally runs out tonight. Here, we play against teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points. This situation is 58-20 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) Florida St. Seminoles
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
It can be argued that the Packers got pretty fortunate to make it into the playoffs thanks to their great come from behind win over the Bears thanks to a 48-yard touchdown pass in the final minute or the fluke fumble return touchdown in the first half. Still, this is a different team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and after outgaining the Bears by 128 yards on Sunday, the Packers deserve it. Green Bay went 2-5-1 without Rodgers, counting the Chicago game where he left early and 6-2 with him so those that may complain about getting a home game against a team that is 3.5 games better, I will be the first to say the Packers deserve it. This game opened at a pick and jumped to the 49ers being favored in a matter of minutes and I will take those points any day. This is taking nothing away from the 49ers which are a very solid team as they are 12-4 and come in riding a six-game winning streak which is always important heading into the playoffs. Five of those wins came against non-playoff teams however and while the win over Seattle was big, it was at home in a big revenge spot. They won the last game in Arizona but were outgained by 107 yards and their last road game against a quality opponent was at New Orleans and despite losing by just three points, they were outgained by 191 total yards. The early forecast in Green Bay is a big edge for the Packers as it is expected to snow with temperatures in the teens. Let's not forget Green Bay lost in San Francisco opening week and it falls into a great revenge situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss by seven points or less to opponent, off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (108) Green Bay Packers
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 140 h 42 m | Show |
Let me start off by saying that the Chargers are extremely fortunate to be here as the Chiefs missed a winning field goal that would have put the Steelers into the playoffs. On top of that, the NFL acknowledged that San Diego should have been penalized for an illegal formation that would have given Kansas City another shot at a field goal. San Diego ended up winning in overtime and we have seen numerous times over the years that teams which get away with such things can ride that into the playoffs and the Chargers could be another one of those. San Diego finished the season 9-7 but it is hard to ignore the fact it won its final four games to get into the postseason including a very impressive win at Denver. The Chargers last loss was at home against Cincinnati and to be clear, this is not a play based on road revenge but it certainly doesn't hurt it being in our favor. It is no secret that the Bengals dominated at home this season going a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the number. Don't think for a second that the linesmakers do not know this and we are getting a very good line because of it. The Chargers were 10-point dogs in their last road game at Denver so this is saying that Cincinnati is just three points worse than Denver on a neutral field. I don't think so. The Bengals have a solid home field edge no doubt but I am expecting a much closer than expected game and we cannot rule out a San Diego outright victory as this is a very solid team. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 65-32 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) San Diego Chargers
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +2.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 48 m | Show |
At this point, most everyone knows about the Saints trouble on the road as they are 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS in their last six road games but something says they step it up in the playoffs starting Saturday in Philadelphia. New Orleans was dominant in its last game which was a must win against Tampa Bay and while it was not a win against a quality team, it was in fact a big win with momentum to carry over into here. Additionally, the Saints have a very good matchup against a poor Philadelphia defense that they can take advantage of. Philadelphia closed the season very strong with wins in seven of its last eight games so it clearly comes in with some positive momentum as well. The Eagles have been nothing special at home, going 4-4 and while that does include wins in their last four games, this is the biggest test to date. They are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and they have not fared well overall against the better teams, going just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games against winning teams. New Orleans should have plenty of success on offense as the Eagles are 31st in the NFL in total defense and New Orleans is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against defenses allowing 350 or more ypg including a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams allowing 260 or mpre passing ypg. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (103) New Orleans Saints
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts -2.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 12 m | Show |
I am a firm believer of not resting starters in the final week of the regular season even if a playoff berth or a playoff seed is already locked up. While it avoids injury, it also takes away any momentum that a team may have had heading into the postseason. Kansas City rested its starters in Week 17 against the Chargers and nearly pulled off the upset and a week off for the starters probably will not affect them as it is just like a bye week. The issue here is that the Chiefs had no momentum to begin with so winning that final game could have been a big confidence boost. They opened the season 9-0 but closed by going 2-5 over their last seven games and at 9-0, many suspected they were a fraud. I still believe that. The Chiefs are 0-3 this season against teams ranked in the top ten in the NFL while the Colts are 4-2 and while that record difference is impressive enough, it shows a much tougher schedule that the Colts have played, 11th vs. 26th for Kansas City. Indianapolis won its final three games of the season including a win at Kansas City so it comes in with plenty of momentum. I am rarely an advocate of road revenge, which the Chiefs are in, and that is certainly no reason to back them here. The Colts are 6-2 at home with losses coming against Miami and St. Louis despite outgaining both. Two quality home wins came against Seattle and Denver and those teams had only three losses apiece all season long. Here, we play on home teams off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. The Colts get it done at home. 10* (102) Indianapolis Colts
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama -16.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is not the bowl game that Alabama was hoping for and while some may expect a letdown following that shocking loss to Auburn, I think this is a statement game for the Tide even though it may not mean much in the long haul. This senior class has never lost a bowl game and they will not want to go out and end their careers by losing two straight games. Going back, Alabama has not lost back-to-back games since 2008 when it lost the SEC Championship to Florida and then lost to Utah in the Sugar Bowl. The Tide have lost only six games since then, including the Auburn loss, and they are 5-0 following those previous five losses. Oklahoma closed the season by winning its last three games including a huge upset at Oklahoma St. in the regular season finale but it was a fortunate victory that saw two touchdowns in the final minute of the game. The Sooners gutted out 10 wins this season despite rotating between three quarterbacks and that is not the ideal setup against an Alabama team that is ranked second nationally in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. On the other side, the Sooners defense looks great on paper, being ranked 14th in the nation in total defense however against two of their toughest foes this year, Texas and Baylor, their defense surrendered a combined 904 yards, including 510 on the ground. Look for Alabama to take advantage of this from the start. The Tide also have a great situation on their side as we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 390 and 440 ypg going up against teams allowing 280 or fewer ypg. This situation is 76-39 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (260) Alabama Crimson Tide
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01-01-14 | Michigan State +7 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
Stanford hails from the stronger conference but I d not think that equates to being close to a touchdown better than Michigan St. both teams were just a few plays away from possible undefeated seasons as the Cardinal lost their two games by a combined nine points while the Spartans lost their lone game by just four points at Notre Dame. Both teams come in riding winning streaks but it is Michigan St.'s run that is the bigger one at nine games and while it can be argued the schedule was soft, including was five wins against teams playing in bowl games and all of those came by double digits. Stanford has been bet pretty hard here as this line opened at three and has steadily risen over the last three weeks. These are two excellent defensive teams which should mean a low scoring game which always favors the underdog. Michigan St. is going to be without linebacker Max Bullough who was suspended Wednesday for violating team rules and while a big loss, there is still plenty around him. Both teams will be motivated to end the season strong but I still give a slight edge to the Spartans in that category. The Cardinal won their first Rose Bowl in 40 years when they beat Wisconsin 20-14 last season while this is the first trip to Pasadena for Michigan St. in 46 years. The Spartans fall into a simple yet effective situation as we play against teams in the second half of the season averaging between 390 and 440 ypg going up against teams allowing 280 or fewer ypg. This situation is 76-39 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (255) Michigan St. Spartans
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01-01-14 | Nebraska +9 v. Georgia | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
For the second straight season, Nebraska and Georgia meet in a New Years Day bowl game. Last season, it was the Capital One Bowl and the Bulldogs prevailed 45-31 as they racked up 589 yards of total offense while rallying from a 31-23 third quarter deficit. Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray had a monster game, throwing for 427 yards and five touchdowns but Murray will not be around for the rematch this season. Of course neither will Huskers quarterback Taylor Martinez who is out with a bad hip injury. With that position being a wash, I am expecting a pretty evenly matched game and I feel this spread is way too high for Georgia to be laying. Seven of Georgia's 12 games were decided by a touchdown or less so it has had its share of close games and we should see another one here. Nebraska lost its final regular season game at home against Iowa so it should come in even more hungry. It is interesting to note that the last two Huskers losses, they outgained the opposition but they lost the turnover battle in both and by a combined 8-0 so that certainly was not helping their cause. The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss while the Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. This is a revenge game for Nebraska as it looks to get some payback from a year ago and additionally, the Huskers will try to end a three-game losing streak in the postseason and none of them have even been close. 10* (247) Nebraska Cornhuskers
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12-31-13 | Duke +13 v. Texas A&M | Top | 48-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
What exactly has Texas A&M done lately to warrant being favored by so many points here? Yes, the SEC vs. the ACC looks like a mismatch on paper over the majority but the matchup is not a very good one for the Aggies in my opinion. The over/under on hearing "Johnny Football" by the announcers is about the same at the points total which is 75 meaning we are expecting to see a high scoring game from two potent offenses. Of course Johnny Manziel will want to go out a winner but that is hardly a motivation factor for this game as the overall picture shows Duke wanting to cap off a record season with a victor. The Blue Devils won 10 games for the first time, and they're playing in bowl games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history. They have not won a bowl game since defeating Arkansas in the 1961 Cotton Bowl, a 52-year drought. They got hammered by Florida St. in their last game but the Seminoles have been doing that to every team. Texas A&M has not. The Aggies have lost two straight games and have been outgained in three straight games and the defense remains the issue. Texas A&M allows 460.3 ypg which is 105th in the nation while giving up 221.3 ypg on the ground, 108th in the country. Playing a defense that bad with the amount of points that Duke is getting is keeping that back door wide open. The Aggies were hoping for bigger and better things this season so playing in a non-New Years Day bowl game is a big disappointment and after seeing Arizona St. fall last night, another upset would not be surprising at all. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* (245) Duke Blue Devils
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12-31-13 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 12-42 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
The Sun Bowl features two teams which came into the season with high expectations but failed to meet them. UCLA was a sleeper pick to win the Pac 12 and while it came close to making the championship game, it could not recover from a pair of losses against Oregon and Stanford and then a setback against Arizona St. The Bruins have a very potent offense but I see them struggling here in what is a bad matchup. Virginia Tech lost four games this season but none were horrible losses. The Hokies opened the season with a loss against Alabama but actually outgained the Tide in that game. The other three losses, all against bowl teams, came by a combined 13 points which makes today's line very much in our favor even though the strength of the Pac 12 is greater than that of the ACC. As long as Virginia Tech can protect the football, it has a great chance of taking this one outright. Predicting turnovers is impossible but what we do know is that Virginia Tech has big edges where it counts, at the line of scrimmage and its overall defense. The Hokies possess one of the top defensive lines in the nation while the Bruins have three starters on the offensive line that are freshmen. Additionally, the Hokies allowed 154 ypg less than what their opponents averaged on the season which is a huge variance and that is good for tops in the nation. UCLA is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games away from home coming off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Additionally, we play on teams in a BCS conference matchup in the second half of the season that are averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 ypg. This situation is 44-16 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (241) Virginia Tech Hokies
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12-30-13 | Texas Tech +14.5 v. Arizona State | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
As you have heard from here many times in the college football postseason, motivation is huge part of these games and that could not be more evident here. Arizona St. had the chance to head to the Rose Bowl as it hosted the Pac 12 Championship but got destroyed at home by Stanford and instead, is playing in a pre-New Years bowl game on top of it. Clearly, this is not a hungry team heading into Monday and now the Sun Devils are being asked to lay two touchdowns against a team that can definitely keep pace. The big, and somewhat shocking, news out of Lubbock is that quarterback Baker Mayfield, who threw for 2,315 yards with 12 touchdowns, announced earlier this month that he's leaving the team and transferring to another school. This is not a huge deal in my opinion as he started the season strong, missed games, and then closed the season on a bad three-game run. Davis Webb will get the start and his numbers were slightly better this season as he threw for the same amount of yards but had a higher ypa and a better overall rating. This is not a downgrade at all. The Red Raiders look to stop the bleeding after closing the regular season with a five-game losing skid but the month layoff could not have come at a better time. Here, we play on teams in a BCS conference matchup in the second half of the season that are averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 ypg. This situation is 44-16 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1992. 9* (237) Texas Tech Red Raiders
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12-30-13 | Texas +14.5 v. Oregon | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
If this game was played during the regular season, it may be a different outcome or in the very least, a different mindset on both sides. Oregon was thinking National Championship just a few short weeks ago until it lost yet again to Stanford and its season was done. The Ducks lost big at Arizona two weeks after that and then barely escaped the Civil War against Oregon St. as they won by just a point. After opening 6-1 ATS, Oregon closed 0-4 against the number but it is still laying a sizable number here simply because it is Oregon and the public has loved this team all season long. What is their motivation here though? Playing in the Alamo Bowl is certainly not what they wanted. Texas does not want to be here either as this is its second straight Alamo Bowl appearance but this one is certainly different. The Longhorns defeated Oregon St. here last season so there is no rebound factor but their motivation comes from trying to send head coach Mack Brown out a winner and playing in the state of Texas does not hurt matters. Oregon is clearly the better team on paper but as we all know, games are not played on paper. Texas is is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing with two weeks or more of rest while under Brown, the Longhorns are 8-1 ATS in nine games away from home following a double-digit conference loss. 10* (235) Texas Longhorns
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12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State v. Navy -6.5 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee closed the season strong with five straight wins. The first was an upset of Marshall which was definitely the turning point but it was one of those games that many saw coming, including us, as it was a big national television contest. The Blue Raiders then won their next four games to close the regular season but those came against teams that finished the season a combined 6-42 so while they enter this game with momentum, it can be considered false momentum. Playing Navy is difficult during the regular season because preparing for its option attack is tough. With additional time to prepare, it would seem that playing the Midshipmen in a bowl game would give some sort of edge and that has been the case as Navy has lost three of its last four bowl games. I do not think that comes into play here however as the seniors are 0-2 in bowl games and want to go out as winners. They lost 62-28 against Arizona St. last season and the motivation will be strong to make up for that debacle, especially with this being the Armed Forced Bowl. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing nine points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 78-36 ATS (68.4 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Navy is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games away from home after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in three straight games while the Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (232) Navy Midshipmen
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 81 h 0 m | Show |
The winner of this game takes the NFC East and as of right now, the Eagles are being handed the division based on this line and the talking heads saying Dallas has no chance. Obviously the loss of Tony Romo is huge and while he has not been completely rules out, the chances of him playing are extremely slim but Kyle Orton is a very capable backup. Taking snaps with the first team all week definitely is a plus and while everyone talks about how bad the Cowboys defense is, people fail to realize that the Eagles defense is just as bad as they are ranked 30th in the NFL in total yards allowed. The Cowboys has a legitimate shot of piling on points, Romo or not. The Eagles are coming off a blowout win which is another reason the public loves them but if anything that gives us a great opportunity to go against them. While they are 5-2 on the road, four of those wins came against teams 4-11, 4-11, 3-12 and 6-9 with the other coming against the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is 0-4 ATS its last four games and that is a streak I love playing against. Also, we have two situations in our favor. First we play on home underdogs or pickems in the last two weeks of the regular season after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1983. also, we play against road favorites averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Dallas Cowboys
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12-29-13 | Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots -8.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 56 m | Show |
We won with the Patriots last week as they rolled in Baltimore. Normally that would signal a play against spot this week, or at the very least, a no play but that is not the case this week. New England still has a lot at stake as it needs to win to clinch a first round bye and it can still claim home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and a Denver loss. There will be no letting up from the Patriots and even more so as they remember how they almost lost in Buffalo in Week One. The Bills put together one of their best games of the season last week as they shut out Miami and held the Dolphins to 103 total yards of offense. Don't expect that again as Buffalo has held opponents to fewer than 300 yards five other times and allowed 483, 386, 300, 423 and 354 next time out. Here we play against road teams that are coming off a double-digit win as home underdogs. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1989. Also, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (323) New England Patriots
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12-29-13 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +13 | Top | 34-14 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 55 m | Show |
The Broncos were torching every team they played early in the season but they have not looked close to the same over the last few weeks. They are 6-3 ATS over their last nine games since losing their first game of the season at Indianapolis and while that record contradicts the first sentence, Denver has been able to pull away late in some games to grab the cover that it hasn't always deserved. The Broncos need to win this game to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs since New England losing at home to Buffalo is unlikely so they are playing for something but that doesn't always mean a cover comes along with it as these must win lines are inflated which is certainly the case here. Oakland has lost three straight games by double-digits and five straight overall so it may seem like the Raiders have quit but that is not the case. They have actually won the yardage battle in two of the five losses and the worse they have been outgained by is 79 total yards. And let's face it, this is the Denver game and Oakland would like nothing more than to play spoiler. Despite a 4-11 record, Oakland is getting outgained by less than 20 ypg and it should have no issues on offense facing a struggling and injured Broncos stop unit. We have a great contrarian situation on our side as we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (326) Oakland Raiders
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12-29-13 | NY Jets +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 30 m | Show |
Miami played its worst game of the season last week in Buffalo as its anemic offense could not get anything going. Now the Dolphins are in a must win situation but we cannot forget that must wins do not always translate into victories. After last week, the Dolphins are being asked to win by a touchdown which is too much to ask for, especially in a divisional game where the teams are separated by just one game in the standings. The Jets have not layed well on the road this season, going just 1-6 and while I do not typically play road revenge, I am making an exception here, at least partially. Motivation is a huge part of Week 17 in the NFL and with the Jets out of the playoffs, many will write them off here thinking the towel has been thrown in. However, the Jets were embarrassed at home against Miami in the beginning of December as they lost 23-3 and got outgained 453-177. These teams hate each other already so there is no way the Jets lay down here, especially with the fact that a win gets them to .500 for the season which is a significant accomplishment. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (317) New York Jets
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12-28-13 | Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville | 9-36 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
Louisville came into the season with a lot of hype and this is not the venue it was hoping for. Miami meanwhile did not have the same type of expectations but it was a very successful season and one they can still build on. Motivation wise, I believe Miami has the edge as with a win, it could achieve its first 10-win season since 2003 while Louisville had BCS aspirations all season long but failed. This game is being played in Florida and the Hurricanes will come into this game with a little added motivation as being the underdog. After a self-imposed, two-year bowl ban because of NCAA sanctions, Miami will try to end a three-game losing streak in the postseason. Louisville struggled to put away inferior opposition toward the end of the season as it won its final three games all by just a touchdown. While Teddy Bridgewater gets all of the pub, Miami quarterback Stephen Morris has a chance to break out after coming into the season with high expectations. However, an ankle injury in Miami's third game hampered him all season. He struggled to manage the pain, and with his mechanics altered, Morris had a stretch of disappointing games. He is now healthy as he has been all season which is a big plus for the Hurricanes. Defensively, they have to disrupt Bridgewater as he has been sacked a surprising 22 timers while Miami has 28 sacks on the season. Slowing him down is the key. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams averaging 5.9 or more yppl. 9* (227) Miami Hurricanes
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12-28-13 | Cincinnati v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
Many will wonder why a 6-6 team is favored over a 9-3 team but North Carolina being favored should give you the answer that it is simply a better team. The Tar Heels came on strong after a 1-5 start to win five of their last six games, the only loss coming by just two points to 10-2 Duke. The schedule was difficult in that all six losses came against teams playing in bowl games and those six teams had an average of nine wins each. It will be argued that Cincinnati falls into that category, which it clearly does but the Bearcats are the worst 9-3 team in the nation. They defeated just one team with a winning record, 8-4 Houston, and currently have the 119th ranked schedule in the nation, the worst ranking in the horrible AAC. While it isn't a home game, North Carolina will have the hometown crowd on its side with this game being played in Nashville and the motivation for the Bearcats may be slim considering they played in this bowl game last season and won it so do they really care to be here? North Carolina quarterback Bryn Renner is out for this game but he missed the second half of the season and that is when the offense turned it around behind Marquise Williams, who finished with a 14-6 TD-INT ratio and is the team's leading rusher. The Tar Heels are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and with the numerous factors on their side, they come away with a comfortable victory. 10* (226) North Carolina Tar Heels
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12-27-13 | Washington -3 v. BYU | Top | 31-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
As you've heard a few times, motivation is a big part in these bowl games and at first glance, one may thing that Washington will be lacking that motivation after head coach Steve Sarkisian left to become the head coach at USC. Taking over is interim coach Marques Tuiasosopo and he is a former Washington player which is a huge factor as he will be ready and his players will be more than ready as well. Running back Bishop Sankey said that the team had to bounce back from the initial impact of Sarkisian's announcement but having Tuiasosopo there helped cushion the blow. "At first, some of the players were in shock," Sankey said. "But Coach Tui (Tuiasosopo) is a great coach who has done a lot for this program. We have a 100 percent trust in him and the coaches who are still here. We're excited to play this game. Once we started practicing, it didn't have the impact we thought it would. It's more important for us to come together with half the coaching staff. We need to come together and play as one." BYU is playing another tough opponent so it will be ready but as long as the Huskies play at a 100 percent, they are on a different level and should be able to win easily. Their only four losses were against UCLA, Arizona St., Oregon and Stanford, all of which were legitimate Pac 12 Championship candidates. 10* (221) Washington Huskies
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12-26-13 | Utah State +2 v. Northern Illinois | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 61 h 58 m | Show | |
Another MAC team takes the field the day after Christmas as Northern Illinois tries to pick up the pieces from a devastating ending to the season as it got pummeled in the MAC Championship. So instead of going to a BCS bowl as many though they would, the Huskies as playing in the Poinsettia Bowl which is a major letdown. San Diego is a nice destination but it is not the one they were hoping for. As for Utah St. it looked as though its season was done when it lost quarterback Chuckie Keaton for the season but it put together a five-game winning streak toward the end of the season before losing its final game against Fresno St. This is the third straight year that the Aggies are going bowling but what makes this one different and more of a motivator is the fact that this is the first one not being played in Boise as the last two were trips to the Idaho Potato Bowl. As Bowling Green showed, when you limit Jordan Lynch on the ground, the Huskies are a very different team. Utah St. boasts the 12th ranked total defense in the country and it has outrushed opponents in eight of its last nine games. The rushing factor has Utah St. in a solid situation as we play on all teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 that average 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1992. 9* (215) Utah St. Aggies
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -4 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 35 m | Show |
This line may seem high to some considering a non-BCS conference is favored over a BCS conference but I think this line is way too low. Bowling Green ended up winning the MAC Championship by destroying Northern Illinois and denying the Huskies a second straight BCS bowl bid. The Falcons are riding a five-game winning streak and it has been utter domination as they have outgained their opponents by an average of 275.2 ypg over that stretch. The offense has not been able to be stopped and I don't see Pittsburgh doing anything about it either. The Panthers limp into the postseason on a 3-5 run and even those wins are unimpressive as they were outgained in all three victories. While I expect the Pittsburgh defense to get lit up, the offense will have a tough time keeping up as it is ranked 102nd in total offense while Bowling Green is fifth in the nation in scoring defense and second in redzone defense. The Falcons are without head coach Dave Clawson nit motivation will not be an issue as special teams coordinator Adam Scheier will serve as interim head coach and will be tasked with leading the program to its first bowl win since beating Memphis in the 2004 GMAC Bowl. Here we play against teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points. This situation is 85-38 ATS (69.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (214) Bowling Green Falcons
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12-24-13 | Oregon State -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The Beavers and Broncos kick off in Hawaii on Christmas Eve in hopes of trying to turn around their respective disappointing seasons. After losing the season opener to Eastern Washington, Oregon St. won six straight games but then closed out the season with five consecutive losses. Boise St. meanwhile comes in at 8-4 and it is the first season it has lost more than three games since 2005. So something has to give and the feeling here is that the Beavers step up as their offense will be near impossible to stop. Additionally, the Broncos are unstable at the coaching spot with Chris Peterson no longer here as linebackers coach Bob Gregory will lead the team on Tuesday. It will be important for Oregon St. to take care of the ball as it is minus-9 in turnover margin over the last four games which has been the main reason they are stuck in the losing skid. The Beavers are ranked third in passing offense while Boise St. is ranked 90th in passing defense and they have flourished in the past in these matchups as they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games away from home against defenses allowing a 62 percent or worse completion rate. Additionally, Boise St. is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against teams allowing 425 or more ypg while Oregon St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (211) Oregon St. Beavers
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12-23-13 | Atlanta Falcons +14.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
With the Seahawks stunning loss on Sunday, this game suddenly becomes pretty important for the 49ers. San Francisco is just a half-game ahead of Arizona in the NFC West and they have to travel there next week to face the Cardinals. That makes this a must win game for San Francisco but must wins do not always correlate into actual wins and in this case, we have seen a significant line shift from the opener as San Francisco is now over a two-touchdown favorite. The Falcons season has been done for a long time so while they could pack this one in, I expect them to not sit down and a lot of that is due to experience the other way. So far this season, the Falcons have done well in continuing to play hard despite having been eliminated from the playoffs. They are just 2-2 over their last four games but the two losses have been by just a combined five points. Last season, in a game in which they had nothing to play for, they put forth one of their worst performances of the season as they had already locked up the top seed in the NFC for the playoffs they lost to a 7-9 Tampa Bay team 22-17 at the Georgia Dome. This is a great opportunity to close the season with a big victory and hosting Carolina next week, playing the role of spoiler is the last remaining goal. I rarely play road revenge and I am not basing this one on that but there is no doubt that Atlanta players will step it up and try to make up for their home loss last season in the playoffs. Here, we play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Atlanta is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (131) Atlanta Falcons
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Top | 11-54 | Win | 100 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
We played against the Eagles last week in Minnesota as they had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 48-30 loss. Philadelphia still sits atop the NFC East at 8-6, one game ahead of the Cowboys after they blew a big lead against Green Bay and lost. There is an interesting dynamic playing out here since the Eagles and Cowboys meet in the final week of the regular season next week. Should Dallas lose against Washington earlier in the day, the Eagles could clinch the division with a victory. Should the Cowboys win, this game is meaningless as far as the NFC East goes because that would make the winner of next week's game the champ. Does that mean Philadelphia sits down should Dallas win? Absolutely not and don't let the talking heads tell you otherwise. A victory over the Bears would put Philadelphia into the third seed in the NFC and that means it would avoid a trip to Seattle in the second round which is always big. Obviously, this game means a lot for the Bears as well but coming off two straight wins, I am expecting a reversal of the good fortunes here. Chicago is just 5-6 since opening the season 3-0 including going 2-4 in its last six road games. The Eagles have not been a great team at home this season, going 3-4 but they have won two straight and three of their last four and this is the last regular season home game of the year. Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg while the Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. Additionally, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 109-63 ATS (63.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Philadelphia Eagles
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 7 m | Show |
The Patriots suffered a brutal loss last week at Miami as they had a chance to win the game but Tom Brady got intercepted in the endzone in the final seconds. New England wasted a golden opportunity to take charge of the AFC after Denver lost on Thursday now it needs to take care of its own business and get some help along the way. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win or a Miami loss and they will know the Dolphins outcome around kickoff but that will not dictate how they play out this game and they still have a chance at home field throughout the playoffs and the one thing it cannot to do to attain that is lose. New England fell to 3-4 on the road but it is in great position here to even that record up. The Ravens won in Detroit Monday night to keep the pressure on Cincinnati in the AFC North. Baltimore can actually clinch a playoff berth with a win here coupled with losses by the Dolphins and Chargers but taking care of their own part will be difficult enough. The Ravens have won four straight games but the last three have been by a combined seven points and they were outgained in all three of those on top of it. At 6-1 at home, they continue to have one of the best home fields in football but Baltimore will have trouble keeping up here. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games following a road loss and they fall into a situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 52-27 ATS (65.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Even better, Brady is 17-3 ATS in his 20 games coming off a loss when not favored by a touchdown or more. 10* (129) New England Patriots
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12-22-13 | New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 39 m | Show |
I have played against the Saints in each of their last five road games and we have cashed a ticket each time as New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five games on the highway, losing four of those outright. We are bucking that trend this week however as in each of the past instances, the Saints were in horrible spots, whether it be them or their opponent being in a great spot but that is not the case this week. This is the third time this season that New Orleans is playing consecutive road games but the first two times, it won the first game so this marks the first time this season that it will be on the road following a road loss and New Orleans is 5-2 in the Sean Payton era in the second game of such a scenario. Carolina has suffered one loss in its last 10 games and that was a 31-13 defeat at New Orleans two weeks ago. This puts the Panthers in a major revenge spot and the public will be lining up behind them. Admittedly, I thought Carolina was very overrated midway through the season but it proved me wrong with impressive wins over San Francisco and New England in consecutive weeks but at this stage of the season we are simply backing the better team with the better coach in the role of an underdog. While the Saints lost by nine points last week, they outgained the Rams 432-302 as turnovers were the difference. In their four losses, the Saints are -7 in turnover margin so taking care of the ball here is key which I think they accomplish. New Orleans is 16-4 ATS under Sean Payton coming off a road loss and it falls into a great situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (103) New Orleans Saints
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 69 h 50 m | Show |
The Bengals had a chance to get closer to a division title but they fell behind early and big to the Steelers and were unable to recover. Cincinnati had a couple late drives for touchdowns to make the game look more respectable to it was pretty much over after three quarters. Now the Bengals return home and they can clinch the AFC North division title by beating the Vikings and watching Baltimore lose or tie against the Patriots. Playing at home has been different than the road as the Bengals are 6-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 16 ppg. While next week's game against Baltimore may seem like the big one, this is the big one as far as Cincinnati is concerned as it does not want to division to come down to the final regular season game. We won with Minnesota last week as it took care of the Eagles without much of a problem. The Vikings took an early 7-0 lead and never trailed which gave them a much needed win following three straight games they could have won but ended up going 1-1-1. That victory also gave them three straight wins at home but like the Bengals, the road has not been as kind as Minnesota is 0-6-1 on the highway as has been outscored by close to eight ppg. Coming off that huge home win, I expect a big letdown this week. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog while the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (116) Cincinnati Bengals
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12-21-13 | UL-Lafayette +2.5 v. Tulane | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show | |
When it comes to bowl season, one thing we like to factor in is teams that overachieved during the regular season and was able to make it into the postseason. One of those teams is Tulane. The Green Wave finished 7-5 on the season despite getting outgained in the majority of their games while getting outgained by an average of close to 50 ypg. Turnovers were the difference as Tulane finished tied for ninth in the nation in turnover margin. This certainly helped with its 9-3 ATS record including covers in three straight and seven of eight to close the season. Conversely, UL-Lafayette did not fare well at the betting window at the end of the season as it dropped its last five games against the number. That is a big reason Tulane is actually the favorite here and why the line is going up. The absence of Cajuns quarterback Terrence Broadway is playing into it but I'm not overly concerned with that since the running game will be the difference here anyway. The Ragin' Cajuns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games away from home when playing against a team with a winning record while Tulane is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games against teams averaging 6.25 or more yppl. 9* (207) UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
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12-21-13 | Buffalo +1 v. San Diego State | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 23 m | Show |
After a slow start to the season which included a loss against Eastern Illinois of the FCS, San Diego St. caught fire, winning seven of eight games following a 0-3 start. The Aztecs could not close the season with a win though as it got hammered in UNLV 45-19 so any momentum gained was lost. Three of their seven wins came in overtime so the 7-5 overall record can be considered a little skewed as well. Buffalo was making a march to the MAC Championship as it reeled off seven straight wins after opening the season with losses against Ohio St. and Baylor. The Bulls ended up dropping two of their last three games and were shipped to Idaho for the postseason but that is actually a big advantage for them here. They are used to the cold weather where San Diego St. is not and that factors in to the Bulls possessing the better defense and the better running game. Running back Branden Oliver rushed for 1,421 yards and 15 touchdowns while Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack finished second in Butkus Award voting. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while going 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games against teams who give up 31 or more ppg. 10* (205) Buffalo Bulls
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
The Steelers were a few inches away from an improbable come-from-behind win against Miami last week and now at 5-8, it is really must win time. Winning out is now the only possibility and even at 8-8, nothing is guaranteed as Baltimore has the upper hand in the AFC as a win this week puts Pittsburgh in a tough spot but that game is not until Monday so the Steelers will be fully focused here. A divisional rivalry only adds to it as Pittsburgh will be out to make up for the 20-10 loss in Cincinnati in Week Two. The Steelers troubles have been on the road for the most part as they are 3-3 at home but 3-1 after a 0-2 start. Cincinnati has won and covered three straight games and a win this week would clinch the AFC North along with a Baltimore loss so the Bengals will not be laying down. The issue is that they are a different team on the road as they are 3-4 compared to a perfect 6-0 at home. Cincinnati lost two of those road games in overtime so the record could be better but at the same time, it also won a game in overtime and won another by three points against the Lions. We won with the Bengals in their last road game at San Diego but the Chargers were coming off a huge win Kansas City while the Bengals were coming off a bye so the situation was completely different to this week. The Steelers fall into a superb contrarian situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 60-29 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1983. Pittsburgh is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (332) Pittsburgh Steelers
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12-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +6.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show | |
We won with New Orleans last Sunday night as it easily defeat Carolina to take the lead in the NFC South by a game over the Panthers. That sets up a letdown spot here for the Saints and with a game at Carolina next week, it also sets up a classic sandwich game that New Orleans could get caught looking past. Even though this game is in a dome, it is not their own dome and the Saints are much different away from home, going 3-3 compared to 7-0 at home while going just 1-5 ATS in those six roadies. Obviously, New Orleans does not want to slip up and give that game right back but coming off a big game on a short week and hitting the road is tough for any team in this league. At 5-8, the Rams are officially out of the playoff picture but this can be considered their playoff game. Playing their old rival always gets them fired up and a chance to play spoiler is exactly what they are striving for. St. Louis is coming off two straight road games and both were pretty ugly as it lost in San Francisco by and Arizona by double-digits. That actually puts them into a great situation explained later and a return home only helps. The Rams have been very solid at home with a 3-3 record and two of those losses could have been wins as a loss against Tennessee came after a late turnover and they had a chance to score late against the Seahawks but fell just short. Motivation is huge this time of year and this defense has a lot of it after two straight poor efforts. These teams met here two years ago, which came after two straight road games for the Rams, and St. Louis took that game outright as a home underdog as well. The Rams have a solid contrarian situation going for them as we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 26-9 ATS (74.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams outscoring opponents by six or more ppg on the season. 9* (312) St. Louis Rams
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 55 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are coming off a blowout win at Washington last week and while we lost with the Redskins in that one, we are going against Kansas City again this week and Denver's victory pretty much solidified the fifth seed for the Chiefs. The victory snapped a three-game skid for Kansas City which improved to 5-1 on the road but I still feel this is a team that is vastly overrated. They have been outgained in five of their last six games and overall, they are getting outgained by close to 20 ypg despite having a 10-3 record. The difference is turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle only twice and that is obviously a huge difference in winning and losing. In the first meeting between Kansas City and Oakland, the Raiders outgained the Chiefs by 58 total yards but turnovers were the difference there so we are banking on a reversal of the miscues here. The Raiders have lost three straight games including the last two on the road and they are coming off a stretch of four road games over their last five. Oakland is 3-3 at home but it could be better as games against Washington and Tennessee could have gone either way. The playoffs are no longer a possibility for the Raiders but this is a big rivalry so you know they will be playing with 100 percent effort here. We have two situations backing Oakland as first, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) since 1983. 9* (328) Oakland Raiders
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12-15-13 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 53 m | Show | |
The Redskins are officially done for the season but don't expect them to be throwing in the towel. With Mike Shanahan likely out as the head coach, the players have a lot to play for going forward and the change at quarterback is only going to help. Robert Griffin III has been benched as he is clearly not 100 percent and it is a smart move so he does not risk further injury. Kirk Cousins takes over as the starter and he is more than capable of having success as we have seen it done already. Cousins made one start last season in place of an injured Griffin against Cleveland and was very solid with a 104.5 quarterback rating. The Falcons will not give much resistance on defense. Atlanta has been playing better of late but has still dropped two of its last three games and at this point of the season, the Falcons should not be laying this many points, no matter who they are playing. Atlanta has covered its last three games which is going to get some action on its side again this week but considering it has been an underdog in each of its last seven games, going to a touchdown favorite is simply too aggressive. We have two excellent situations favoring Washington here. First, we play on road teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 38-9 ATS (80.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or less coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 27-10 ATS (73 percent) since 1983. Additional, Washington is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl while Atlanta is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 home games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. 9* (305) Washington Redskins
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12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings +6 | Top | 30-48 | Win | 100 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
The Eagles won their fifth straight game last week in a snowstorm at home as they defeated the Lions 34-20. They have covered four of those and now the public is backing them to keep the streak going to this is no easy task on the road in Minnesota. Philadelphia has not been on the road in a month as it has had three straight home games along with a bye in there as well. Granted, the Eagles have won four straight road games and are 5-1 on the highway this season but now they come in being favored by the most points on the highway this season. The Vikings lost a crazy game in Baltimore last week as they were up 12-7 with just over two minutes left and then the fireworks took off as there were five touchdown scored in the final 2:05 including the game winner by the Ravens with four seconds remaining. It was a tough loss to take and with Leslie Frasier on the chopping block, players are not going to quit but continue to play hard for jobs for next season. Minnesota has won its last two games at home and it is 5-2 ATS as an underdog of less than a touchdown this season. Minnesota falls into a great situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 14 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Also, the Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after playing their last game on the road and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games while the Eagles are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. Look for Minnesota to keep this one close and an outright win is certainly not out of the question. 10* (324) Minnesota Vikings
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12-14-13 | Army +13 v. Navy | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 15 m | Show |
Can Army finally break through in this series, considered the greatest rivalry in college football by some yet it has not looked like it over the last decade plus. The Midshipmen have won 11 in a row in the series, the most by either side in 114 meetings between the service academy rivals. Navy comes in with a three-game winning streak while Army is saddled with a four-game losing streak so many expect a similar outcome but this year is a little bit different. Preparation for this year's game against Army presents an unprecedented challenge for the Midshipmen because for the first time final exams are taking place in the week leading up to the game's kickoff Saturday afternoon. "This week is unique preparing for our biggest game and having finals," Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo said. "This is hard. I mean we've been planning for a couple weeks now trying to get in practice times that don't conflict with any exams. In all my 16 years of being here, this is the hardest we're going to have, schedule-wise, getting ready for Army." Meanwhile, the Army players are playing for head coach Rich Ellerson's job as he is 20-40 in five seasons including three seasons of three wins or less so a win here could be the only way to save his job. It is not out of the question either. Army is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 42 points or more in its last game and we have two situations on our side here. First, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after gaining 5.5 or more ypc last game. This situation is 35-13 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1992. Also, we play on teams that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc, after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 44-15 ATS (74.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (303) Army Black Knights
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
With Green Bay winning and Detroit losing, the Bears know this is a must win game for them to hang around in the NFC North race. After losing their last two games, both on the road, Chicago is now 6-6 on the season and a win puts it into a tie with Detroit for first place. Making it more important is that the Bears lost both meetings with the Lions and when they face Green bay in the season finale, the Packers will have Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback. In-between are two more road games so Chicago needs to take care of business at home. The Bears have been a money-burning team of late as they have lost four straight against the number and are 1-8 ATS over their last nine games which is going to keep the public off from playing them and is helping us with a good number this week. The Cowboys meanwhile have won two straight games and are now a half game back of the Eagles after their win yesterday over the Lions. That obviously makes this a big game for them as well but they are just 2-4 on the road this season and going back, they are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 road games coming off a non-conference game. Defensively, Dallas is allowing over 450 ypg on the road and Chicago has an offense that will take advantage. Dallas is ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 294.9 ypg and that goes up to over 300 ypg on the road so Chicago's sixth-ranked passing attack should be able to light it up. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in the second half of the season against teams averaging or more 375 ypg and the Bears fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 93-51 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (160) Chicago Bears
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday night at Seattle. It is not easy for any team to win there, let alone compete, so we cannot take that loss too much into consideration. Plus New Orleans has always taken a step down when going on the road but now the Saints are back home, coming off a loss and first place in the NFC South on the line. This is where this team shines. New Orleans is 6-0 at home and has dominated for the most part, winning those games by an average of 17.4 ppg. Granted, this will be one of the toughest test but knowing they have to go to Carolina in two weeks, they will take this game as a must win. Carolina is the hottest team in the NFL as it has won eight straight games and possibly even more impressive for our concerns, it covered seven of those. The linesmakers seemed to have finally caught up though as the Panthers are getting a short number in New Orleans with a lot of that based on the recent performance as well as the Saints debacle in Seattle. Four of Carolina's wins during the streak have come on the road but only one of those was a quality win, which came at San Francisco. The atmosphere will be too much for them here in primetime. The Saints are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites including 12-2 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or less. Also, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games coming off a road loss including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Carolina has owned this series when playing on the road, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to New Orleans but that streak, along with the current winning streak, comes to a crashing halt Sunday night. 10* (142) New Orleans Saints
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12-08-13 | NY Giants +3.5 v. San Diego Chargers | 14-37 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
After losing a tough game to Dallas, the Giants bounced back last week against the Redskins for a must win after falling behind 14-0. They are not dead yet as it may take going 4-0 down the stretch along with a lot of help to win the division but they are still mathematically alive. They still have tough games against Seattle and Detroit but right now the motto is one game at a time. New York has won five of its last six games after a dreadful 0-6 start and while it may be too little, too late, any hope is some hope. After a strong start to the season, the annual Chargers fade is taking place and Norv Turner isn't even around anymore. They have lost four of their last five games including a home game last week against Cincinnati. San Diego is still alive in the Wild Card picture in the AFC but this team has not been able to do much on offense lately with the exception of the Kansas City game. But that was after two defenders went down and the Chargers now face a Giants defense that has been playing exceptional of late. San Diego's defense meanwhile is ranked 29th in the NFL so look for the Giants offense to again have success as they have scored 21 or more points in seven of their last eight games. The Giants have a simple yet effective situation on their side as we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 82-46 ATS (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. The Giants are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games following a road win while going 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg. 9* (153) New York Giants
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12-08-13 | Tennessee Titans +13 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 28-51 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
While it is hard to put a team as good as Denver in a letdown situation, this is certainly as close as it gets as the Broncos are coming off three huge games, two against the Chiefs and one against the Patriots, so now is the time to take a breath. On top of that, Denver has a Thursday night divisional game up next against the Chargers. Denver has been close to unstoppable at home but this could be the biggest test for the Broncos yet and it isn't only because of the opposition. The weather forecast looks pretty dismal as temperatures probably won't get out of the teens and we all know how Peyton Manning struggles in the cold. And if you didn't know, he does. Denver is a game clear of Kansas City in the AFC but it pretty much amounts to a three-game lead based on the season sweep so for the Chiefs to overtake the Broncos, it will take a minor miracle. Tennessee is coming off a loss against the Colts which was its third in four games but the playoffs are not out of the question as the Titans are just a game behind Miami and Baltimore for the second Wild Card spot. The good news is that this is the toughest remaining test of the season so a win here could feasibly mean winning out which would likely be good enough for a possible playoff berth. So we know they will be playing hard and we are more concerned about staying within this generous number. Tennessee falls into a great contrarian situation as well as we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 79-39 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (149) Tennessee Titans
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12-08-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Pittsburgh's playoff hopes took a big hit last week after it lost on Thanksgiving night at Baltimore although it was a valiant comeback effort. The Steelers divisional hopes are all but shot but they are still fighting for the playoffs and a win here would be a huge step. They trail the Dolphins and Ravens by one game for the second Wild Card spot so a win here would put it a game back of Baltimore and even though it would be tied with Miami, the tiebreaker is theirs due to the head-to-head win. The road has been tough for the Steelers as they are 2-5 but they have won three straight games at home while covering all of those as well. Pittsburgh has covered four straight overall and while that is a streak I tend to go against, the situation is a good one and we are actually getting line value in my opinion. Miami is coming off a blowout win against the reeling Jets but this team has been very inconsistent. The Dolphins opened the season 3-0 but they have gone 3-6 since then and have not won consecutive games since September. Of their 12 games, they have been outgained eight times and while they are 3-3 on the road, they are 1-3 in their last four road games. The Steelers fall into a phenomenal league-wide situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Steelers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games while Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. 10* (146) Pittsburgh Steelers
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12-08-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Washington Redskins +3.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
The run that the Redskins had last season will not be replicated and they will be missing pout on the playoffs after coming into the season as one of the favorites to win the NFC East. They have dropped four straight games to fall to 3-9 but I like them in this particular spot as teams that are playing their third straight home game and failed to win and cover the first two tend to do a great job in getting it done in the third game. The worst part about the four-game losing streak is that Washington has won the yardage battle in three of those games as it has been miscues that have cost them. Now they have the chance to play spoiler and even though the playoffs may now be a pipedream, they have not tossed in the towel. Kansas City is coming off its second loss to Denver in three weeks and its third loss overall. I felt we were getting value on the Chiefs last week but after jumping ahead 21-7, they fell apart when it mattered the most. After three straight divisional games and with the fifth seed in the AFC Playoffs all but locked up, I see a huge letdown this week. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and while Andy Reid is 3-0 so far this season against his former divisional foes, I do not see it happening again here. The Chiefs are 9-3 but are actually getting outgained on the season by 29 ypg while Washington, despite being 3-9, is actually outgaining its opponents by 12.1 ypg. So we have two teams with skewed records and the better team statistically is getting points at home. Here we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 93-51 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Washington Redskins
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12-07-13 | Utah State +3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
We played against Fresno St. last week and it went into San Jose St. and lost thus crashing its BCS bowl aspirations. The easy thinking is that the Bulldogs bounce back with a big win this week and win the MWC Championship but I'm not buying it. They return home where they are 6-0 this season and have blown out most of those teams but those wins have come against no one special with UNLV being the best of the bunch. They defeated Boise St. and Rutgers by just one point each so those could have gone either way. The fact Fresno St. allowed 62 points last week is a major concern. Once Utah St. lost quarterback Chuckie Keeton midway through the season against BYU, many thought the Aggies were toast but Darell Garretson has been solid, going 5-0 as a starter while throwing for 1,117 yards and nine touchdowns and just four picks. The thing that holds the Aggies together is its defense as they have allowed more than 10 points only once since the loss against Boise St., giving up an average of just 10.2 ppg over their last five games. Fresno St. has owned this series with five straight wins but they have not played since 2011 so that can be thrown out the door. The Aggies fall into a great situation where we play on road teams after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1992. Utah St. is 7-0 ATS in it last seven games after allowing nine points or less last game while going 8-1 ATS following a road win. The Bulldogs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a conference loss as a double-digit favorite. 10* (129) Utah St. Aggies
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12-07-13 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +6 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show |
Ohio St. controls its own destiny for a trip to the BCS Championship as it currently sits at number two. A win and the Buckeyes are in but a loss and a new debate begins. This is no sure thing for Ohio St. as it really doesn't have many big wins on the schedule as victories over Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan were good but none were dominant and two of those came at home. Additionally, the Buckeyes were outgained in two of those and now they will face the best defense they have seen all season. The Spartans come in riding an eight-game winning streak and while it can be argued their wins have not been that great either, they have been outgained only once all season and that was by only 31 yards at Nebraska. The lone loss came this season at Notre Dame, a team that has had Michigan St.'s number over the years, and that was by only four points so the Spartans could easily be coming in with an undefeated record here as well. As mentioned, the Spartans defense is one of the best around while the Buckeyes have struggled. They have allowed at least 420 yards in their past three games including giving up 603 yards to Michigan last week and that is a huge concern. Michigan St.'s offense has been inconsistent but has improved over the second half of the season under quarterback Connor Cook. I see a lot of success from the Spartans here. Michigan St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home when playing against a team with a winning record while going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing six points or less last game. Is an upset possible here? You bet it is. 10* (128) Michigan St. Spartans
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12-07-13 | Stanford v. Arizona State -3 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
Despite Stanford having the better overall record and a higher BCS ranking, Arizona St. gets to host the Pac 12 Championship thanks to a better record in the conference as the Sun Devils went 8-1 while Stanford finished 7-2. That one loss came against the Cardinal so they will not only out for revenge but to make their first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1996. Stanford hammered Arizona St. in that first meeting 42-28 but it was not that close as the Cardinal took their foot off the gas. They held the Sun Devils to a season-low 50 yards on the ground and while that may seem like an issue here, this is a difference Sun Devils team, one that has improved immensely since then. Starting running back Marion Grice will be out for this game but it should not be an issue as D.J. Foster is coming off a career night in place of the injured Grice against Arizona as he ran for a career-high 124 yards and two touchdowns. I like the fact this second meeting is in Arizona St. where the Sun Devils are a perfect 7-0 this season with five of those wins coming against bowl eligible teams. Stanford meanwhile is 3-2 on the road with losses at Utah and USC and the difference is in the redzone. At home the Cardinal are flawless in the red zone, as they have scored points all 29 times but on the road it's a different story however, as they have only scored on 11 of 16 trips inside the redzone. Additionally, Arizona St. is +15 in turnovers at home while Stanford is -4 in turnover margin on the road. All of this spells to a big Arizona St. home win and a coveted trip to the Rose Bowl. 10* (126) Arizona St. Sun Devils
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12-07-13 | South Florida v. Rutgers -4 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
We lost with Rutgers last week as it put up a dud in Connecticut and still sits a game out of a possible bowl berth. Turnovers were the difference as the Scarlet Knights lost that battle 3-0 and that was the ultimate difference. A win here and Rutgers will be playing in the postseason with a likely destination of either the Compass Bowl or the Beef O'Brady's Bowl, which are fifth and sixth, respectively, in the American Athletic Conference pecking order. The Scarlet Knights are clearly playing their worst of the season but a 4-2 record at home is nothing horrible, especially when the two losses came against teams that will be in a bowl game, Cincinnati and Houston. Things get a lot easier in their last home contest of the season. The Bulls are a lowly 2-9 and have lost five straight but are coming off arguably their best performance of the season in a 23-20 loss to 10-1 UCF. While South Florida can take some positives from that game, that was clearly their bowl game as it was their biggest rival and they came up just short which I think will turn more into a letdown spot than a positive spin on it. The Bulls are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win while Rutgers is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. The Scarlet Knights have covered six straight games in this series, five of which were outright wins as underdogs, and with what is at stake this week, that unblemished record should continue. 10* (110) Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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12-07-13 | Marshall v. Rice +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
While there are a lot of big conference championship games on Saturday, this one seems to be the most overlooked yet it could be the most entertaining. Looking at this logically, the two divisional winners meet for the C-USA Championship and it is hosted by the team that enters the game with the highest BCS ranking. While Marshall did receive votes in each of the two human polls, the value of those votes was not significant enough to offset the relative strength of Rice in the computer polls. In this case, that team is Rice so the Owls are the better team yet are getting points on their home field. Marshall and Rice come in with identical records and the Owls have played a slightly tougher schedule. Rice is 5-0 at home this season and was the favorite in every one of those games so the fact that it is actually a home underdog here is perplexing as it has been flying under the radar all season. Rice brought back 19 starters from last season and have won 14 of their last 17 games so it is no fluke that the Owls are here. Granted, they did limp into the championship with a couple of narrow wins while Marshall has won its last five games by double-digits but three of those were at home and the two wins came against Tulsa and Florida International, which are a combined 4-20. Rice is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 home games against teams averaging 250 or more passing ypg while the Thundering Herd are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a win of more than 20 points. 10* (120) Rice Owls
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 16 m | Show |
I am not one to believe that there is corruption in college football but there are times it makes you think that games could be shaded a particular way. The MAC is a classic example. Last year, Kent St. entered the MAC Championship at 11-1 and had the upper hand at a BCS bowl game which means a lot of money for the conference. It was rather puzzling that the referees did not call a single penalty on the Golden Flashes in that game which leads you to believe that teams that need to win get the benefit of most calls but I do not expect that to happen this season. Even though the Huskies did end up in a BCS bowl last season because of that win, Bowling Green will not go with a win so you know who the conference is rooting for. But will it happen again? Both of these team have been cruising along the last few games although Northern Illinois has looked more susceptible over the last couple games. One big reason for that is because the Huskies two top receivers have been out and they are now back and playing in a controlled environment so Northern Illinois can get back to its balanced ways. That can be a scary thing but the Huskies will be facing two things they have not seen this year and that is a defense and a vertical passing game that Bowling Green possesses. The Falcons are ranked seventh in total defense, fourth in passing defense and fifth in scoring defense while on the other side, they will be able to stretch the field against a very suspect Huskies passing defense. We are finally starting to see some line movement as the Huskies are a huge majority play and I would wait for this until later in the week as we should catch an even bigger number. 10* (105) Bowling Green Falcons
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12-05-13 | Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
The Keg of Nails is on the line Thursday night in Cincinnati and I like the Bearcats to bring it back to them after Louisville won it back in overtime last season. This is a very big tradition and with the series no longer on the schedule, this is a big one to claim and I give a big edge to the home team. Early in the season, I felt that Cincinnati was a bit overrated based on its weak schedule and while that is still the case somewhat, I think that Louisville is even more overrated. The Bearcats have played the 132nd ranked schedule in the nation while Louisville has played the 116th ranked slate so there is very little difference there. The Cardinals have gotten all of the hype since before the season even started, thus creating overinflated numbers and we are still seeing it here despite two teams going in opposite directions. Cincinnati, which has won 16 of its last 18 home games while outscoring teams by an average of 23.4 ppg, is coming off back-to-back impressive offensive performances, totaling 1,192 yards in wins at Rutgers and Houston. Meanwhile. Louisville's offense has gone from averaging 495.3 ypg to 347.7 ypg in the last three games and two of those were at home with the third being played at woeful Connecticut. Cincinnati still has an outside shot at the automatic BCS bowl berth as a win here and a UCF loss could leapfrog it over the Knights based on tiebreakers while Louisville has no chance. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win while Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win. 10* (104) Cincinnati Bearcats
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