Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-14 | Toledo v. Kent State +14 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Toledo is coming off a win against Massachusetts in its last game by just seven points and now it is laying its second biggest number of the season and on the road no less. The Rockets have not been able to cover much this season as they are 1-6 against FBS teams and a big reason for that is that they are still a public favorite and they have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent by more than 14 points. They have been outgained on four of their seven games against teams from the FBS as their defense has been horrendous as they have allowed 35 or more points four times. This is a defense that even Kent St. should be able to break through as it has not been able to do so very much. The Golden Flashes have scored more than 17 points only once this season but their defense has kept some of their games within reason as not counting games against Virginia and Ohio St., four of the other five losses have been by 10 points or less. Toledo is in first place in the MAC West with a 4-0 record but right on its heels is 3-1 Northern Illinois which plays Wednesday and the Rockets travel to face the Huskies next Tuesday which puts them in a classic lookahead spot here. While the Rockets may come away with the victory here, doing so by more than two touchdowns is too much to ask. 10* (104) Kent St. Golden Flashes |
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11-02-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show | |
Get ready for an ugly one as we are backing the Jaguars who come in at 1-7 on the season following another loss last week, this one at home against the Dolphins. Jacksonville is making progress though as it has outgained each of its three opponents and we are seeing a similar pattern to last season. The Jaguars opened 2013 by losing their first eight games only to finish 4-4 over their second half of the season so they are already a step ahead and are playing better than they were at this point last year when they had outgained only one opponent through eight games. The Bengals were fortunate, as were we, to cash with them last week as they escaped against Baltimore. Now they find themselves squarely inside a divisional sandwich as they host Cleveland next week in a game they may already be preparing for since it comes on Thursday. The Bengals are still pretty automatic at home when it comes to winning but things have been tight the last two games and now they are laying double-digits at home for the first time since 2009 and going back, they are 0-4 ATS when laying 10 or more points. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 42-18 ATS (70 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (453) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -130 | 77 h 24 m | Show |
After winning with the Jets two weeks ago, we lost with them last Sunday against Buffalo as Geno Smith threw three picks on his first four possessions which led to him getting benched and New York was unable to recover. Michael Vick takes over as the starter and while he is not a big upgrade, he is an upgrade nonetheless and working in practice with the first team all week should have him much better prepared this week. The Jets have dropped seven straight games to fall to 1-7 but the strange thing is that they have been outgained by a paltry 11 yards on the entire season. We all know that means and it is pretty obvious where the problems lie when your turnover margin is at -13, an NFL worst. Smith was responsible for 12 of 16 giveaways so we are banking on that getting better. The Chiefs followed up an upset win over San Diego by easily defeating the Rams last week which were coming off an upset home victory over Seattle in their previous game. Hosting the Jets is not going to get the juiced flowing especially with a game at 5-3 Buffalo next week following by Seattle and then two divisional games. Kansas City is a good team but are they good enough to be laying double-digits? The last time that happened was in 2005 so I'm saying no. Contrarian thinking says to play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (461) New York Jets |
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11-02-14 | San Diego Chargers +1.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
We play on and lost with San Diego last Thursday night in Denver. Had the Chargers won that game, we would not be playing them here but coming off two straight losses and in danger of falling further back in the playoff chasing pack, we will ride them here playing on extra rest. San Diego has been outplayed in both of the recent losses, losing the yardage battle by 114 and 119 total yards so it has gone from dominating during a five-game winning streak to being outplayed over the last two weeks. Bring on the Dolphins as they have won two in a row, both on the road, and they have dropped two straight at home. Granted, those losses came against Kansas City and Green Bay but we can put the Chargers in that category of solid teams. Miami has been outgained in four of their last six games and while the yardage differentials have been minimal, it has still been on the wrong end which is not a good sign. It has come down to turnovers and the same can be said for the Chargers with both being on the opposite ends. That brings in a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (451) San Diego Chargers |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Houston Texans | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
I'm typically not one to lay points on the road but this is an exception as the Eagles have played great the last two weeks only to split their games. They destroyed the Giants three weeks ago which led into their bye week only to lose against the Cardinals last week after giving up a 75-yard touchdown pass with 1:21 remaining and then getting stopped on the Arizona 16-yard line following three straight incomplete passes. Philadelphia hits the road once again and road teams coming off a road loss have fared very well over the years, going 70-26 ATS in the month of November over the last 10 years. Turnovers have killed the Eagles this season as they are -7 in margin and have won the turnover battle only once in seven games. Houston took care of Tennessee on the road last week which snapped a three-game losing streak. The Texans have outgained each of their last two opponents after getting outgained in each of their first six games so they are either trending in the right direction or it is a false perception. I am backing the latter as they have been outgained in 11 of 14 games going back to last season they are also part of a turnover situation, but not in their favor. We play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The better team wins which means a likely cover as well. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-01-14 | Southern Miss v. UTEP -6.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 32 m | Show |
We missed the good opening number on this one but it should not come into play anyway. UTEP won its second straight game, a 34-0 shutout of UTSA on Saturday and it dominated just as the score indicates as the Miners won the yardage battle by 281 yards. Now they head back home where they are 2-1 and they are also 2-1 in the conference while a victory will have them one win away from bowl eligibility. Not bad for a team that won only five games over the last two years combined. Southern Mississippi has also made some positive strides as after missing only one games over the last two seasons, the Golden Eagles already have three wins this season. Two of those wins came against struggling North Texas and Appalachian St. while the third was against Alcorn St. of the FCS. They played well for most of the game last week against Louisiana Tech but suffered a blow when starting quarterback Nick Mullens went down with a foot injury and he is questionable for this week. UTEP is favored by less than what North Texas was favored by in the last road game for Southern Mississippi and that should not be the case. Here, we play on teams that have a +/- 5 ppg differential) going up against a team with a -10 ppg differential or worse, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (398) UTEP Miners |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 32 m | Show |
We lost with Oklahoma St. last week as it fell behind 14-0 and could not recover. It was the second straight loss but they were outgained by only 12 yards but the problem was that they could not covert when needed as the Cowboys were just 3-20 on third and fourth down. Things won't get any easier this week but Oklahoma St. is getting a very favorable number and the setup is outstanding as this is a great bounceback opportunity. Kansas St. is coming off its second straight really big win as it took down Oklahoma two weeks ago and then shut out Texas last week. Overall, it was the Wildcats four straight victory and their fifth straight cover which in itself is a solid go against angle. With the Cowboys slumping and coming off two big win, it would not be shocking to see Kansas St. come in lethargic especially with a game at TCU next week. This series has been very tightly contested as each of the last seven meeting has been decided by fewer points than what the Cowboys are getting this week. Oklahoma St. falls into a fantastic contrarian situation as well as we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 17 or more points. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (367) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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11-01-14 | Old Dominion +7.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 32 m | Show |
It was expected that Vanderbilt was in for a tough season with all of the losses in incurred and that has proven true as the Commodores are 2-6 overall including 0-5 in the SEC. the two victories have come by a combined four points and one of those was by just a single point against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Vanderbilt has been outgained in every game this season and while it is on a solid 4-1 ATS run, all of those covers came as an underdog of at least 16.5 points. Now the Commodores go back to the role of favorites where they are 0-3 ATS on the season. What started out as a good season for old Dominion has gone south quickly as the Monarchs have lost four straight games and was unable to cover any of those games. Those games were against some solid competition however and despite playing a team from the SEC this week, they are not at a big disadvantage at all. While the defense has been horrible, Vanderbilt has an offense that is ranked third to last in the country so it cannot take advantage. And on the flip side, Old Dominion has a solid offense and should have no issues keeping it going here. The Monarchs fall into a solid situation where we play against home favorites team from a major division conference going up against a team from a second tier conference, off a road loss against a conference rival. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (377) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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11-01-14 | Indiana +7 v. Michigan | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show | |
The Wolverines continue to struggle and it should be just a matter of time before head coach Brady Hoke is shown the door as it has been a steady decline since he arrived. Michigan has gone from 11-2 to 8-5 to 7-6 and now at 3-5, it is in danger of another losing season. The Wolverines have dropped four of their last five games with three of those coming by blowouts and three in which they were outgained by 202, 140 and 260 total yards. They do take a step down in class here but they are still being overvalued in my opinion as they should not be favored like this. Indiana opened up with a 2-1 record with the only loss coming by just three points but it has struggled since then going 1-3 over their last four games and all of those losses have been blowouts. All of those losses came against teams with winning records however so the Hoosiers are taking a step down in class also. As a comparison, they were getting 3.5 points at Iowa in their last road game and now they are getting double that against a team that is 2.5 games worse than the Hawkeyes. Indiana is playing with its third string quarterback as Chris Covington was thrown into the fire against Iowa after Nate Sudfeld was hurt that game and Zander Diamont had to face Michigan St. Now he has had two weeks to prepare against a defense he should succeed against. Michigan is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after a loss by 21 or more points. 9* (369) Indiana Hoosiers |
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11-01-14 | TCU v. West Virginia +5.5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 95 h 0 m | Show | |
West Virginia is playing at a high level right now as it has won four straight games to quietly improve to 4-1 in the Big XII which is just a half-game behind first place Kansas St. The Mountaineers have registered back-to-back big game victories over Baylor at home and Oklahoma St. on the road and while this could be considered a letdown spot to some, they have a ton of momentum and confidence right now. Despite coming off two big wins, the Mountaineers are again catching points at home like they recently did against the Bears. TCU lost a tough game at Baylor three weeks ago by three points but it has been able to bounce back and win its last two games by blowouts of 33 and 55 points. Those games were at home however and I expect a different Horned Frog team this week and that could finally fall into a letdown spot. These teams have gone to overtime in each of the last two years with the games being decided by a total of four points and to see another close game like those would not be surprising at all. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 47-18 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1992. TCU is the only team in the country that has covered every game this season and that is a major factor in this number as the Horned Frogs are a perfect 7-0 ATS. 9* (392) West Virginia Mountaineers |
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11-01-14 | Western Michigan v. Miami (OH) +7 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 1 m | Show |
Miami Ohio may be out of bowl contention already, but it continues to play hard and expectations were low coming in so everything positive at this point is a great stepping stone for next season. The RedHawks were 0-12 last season but they already have two wins this season and have missed out on a couple more by narrow margins. They were outscored by nearly 24 ppg last season but this year, they are getting outscored by just 8.1 ppg which is a dramatic increase. Miami has won two straight at home and has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Western Michigan is having an even better turnaround season as it has gone from 1-11 last year to 5-3 through eight games in 2014. This includes three straight wins and the Broncos are tied for the longest ATS winning streak in the country with seven straight covers. That is certainly playing into this number and after playing their first five road games as an underdog, the Broncos are now favored on the road for the first time which is a red flag. Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and its only underdog loss came by just a point and a half when it lost by eight points as a 6.5-point dog against Buffalo. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while Western Michigan is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (344) Miami Ohio RedHawks |
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11-01-14 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -4 | 51-48 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 31 m | Show | |
A week after defeating Virginia for its second straight win, Duke went into its second bye week of the season bowl eligible for the third straight season. The Blue Devils are 6-1 overall but they have not played well the last three games despite going 2-1 as they have been outgained by 162, 110 and 131 total yards in those contests. While the two wins can be considered a fluke, in the first four wins, one came against FCS Elon while other three came against teams that are a combined 5-17. Duke is arguably one of the most overrated ranked teams in the nation. Pittsburgh has lost four of its last five games but it has played better than that as it has lost the yardage battle in three of those games by just 33, 35 and 69 total yards. Two of the four losses came by four and five points while the other two resulted in a cumulative 6-2 disadvantage in turnovers and that makes a huge difference. This game falls into the classic situation in college of an unranked home favorite over a ranked road underdog. On top of that, the Panthers have a solid rushing situation on their side as we play no teams that are averaging 4.8 ypc or better going up against teams allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc, after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1992. The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. 9* (324) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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10-31-14 | Tulsa +24 v. Memphis | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 84 h 55 m | Show |
After three wins all of last season, Memphis already has surpassed that as it is 4-3 including 2-1 in the AAC which is just a game out of first place. I'm not completely sold on the Tigers however and they should not be favored by this much against a team with a pulse. They were favored by 22 at SMU last time out but the Mustangs are arguably the worst team in the FBS. This is taking nothing away from what head coach Justin Fuente has done this season but at 4-3, are the Tigers really this good according to the line? Tulsa is not having a good season and one more loss means its bowl hopes are gone and it will be sitting at home during the postseason for a second straight year. The chances of closing out with five straight wins is pretty much guaranteed not to happen but if we are going to see an all out effort at least one more time, this is the game with elimination on the line. The Golden Hurricane have lost their last six games while covering only one of those but this is the biggest number they have seen against a team not names Oklahoma. Three of the six losses have been within this number so they have not been completely dominated. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog coming off a bye week and in this case, Memphis has only five days to prepare for this one. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double digit road win and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* (307) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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10-30-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 28-10 | Win | 103 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Despite being winless on the road, the Saints have gone from a pickem on Thursday to a small favorite over Carolina. I think that is the right move that came early in the week shortly after release and once we get closer to gametime, we will likely see the line continue to rise so it is best to bet this one now. New Orleans is coming off an excellent performance on Sunday night against the Packers even though it won the yardage battle by just four yards. The Saints have dropped seven straight regular season games on the road but they were able to cover their last one in Detroit and they are getting a good matchup here. Carolina is coming off a hard fought loss against Seattle on Sunday and after a 2-0 start, the Panthers are 1-4-1 over their last six games. They outgained Tampa Bay by 70 total yards in their season opener but since then, they have been outgained in their last seven games. The fact that three of those resulted in non-losses is fortunate as getting outgain in this league tends to lead to losses the vast majority of the time. New Orleans has won 13 of its last 15 games when scoring 40 or more points as it tends to carry momentum forward which makes this short week actually a good thing in keeping that momentum rolling. We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are being outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints |
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10-30-14 | Troy v. Georgia Southern -25 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Rushing advantages/disadvantages are a lot more prevalent in college football than in the NFL and those variances can often be the biggest deciding factor in a win/loss or cover/non-cover. That is definitely the case here as Georgia Southern will have no issues moving the ball on the ground. The Eagles have won five straight games and are sitting at 6-2 on the season with the only losses coming against NC State and Georgia Tech by a combined five points. They are in first place in the SBC with a 5-0 record and control their own destiny at this point. Troy is riding a two-game losing streak and its only win this season came against lowly New Mexico St. and this is certainly not the season head coach Larry Blakeney envisioned in his final one with the Trojans. The Eagles are averaging 402.1 ypg on 7.4 ypc both of which are the highest averaged in the country. Troy meanwhile is allowing an average of 244.6 ypg on 5.7 ypc which is near the bottom in the entre nation so stopping this attack will be next to impossible. Two situations are in our favor also. First, we play against road underdogs outrushed by their opponents by 1.25+ yards/carry on the season, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992. Second, we play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 230 or more ypg rushing against teams averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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10-30-14 | Florida State v. Louisville +5 | Top | 42-31 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Florida St. is the reigning National Champion and is sitting undefeated against this season at 7-0 following a thrilling, albeit fortunate win over Notre Dame two Saturday's ago. The Seminoles have been able to get the job done for the most part but they have not been nearly as dominating like they were last season and that is proven by their 1-6 record against the number. They have won both true road games but failed to cover against NC State and Syracuse and this is now the biggest road test of the season. Louisville is 6-2 and has outgained all but one opponent and that negative was just three yards against Virginia. The Cardinals are 4-0 at home and while this will be their biggest home test, they are getting a substantial amount of points for a team that has a big edge in a significant category. That is rushing. The Seminoles are ranked 94th in rushing ypc and have really struggled against the better defenses they have faced in Notre Dame, Clemson and Oklahoma St. Now comes Louisville which is ranked number one in the country in rushing defense and total defense for that matter. And schedule strength doe not come into play as both have played fairly similar schedules. I love the fact that Bobby Petrino has had extra time to prepare for this one as he should have his offense ready as well. Florida St. is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. 10* (306) Louisville Cardinals |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Washington snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and while that won't be impressing many people, it put a halt to the skid and with that pressure now gone, the Redskins can play loose against one of their most hated rivals. The offense has been doing nothing of late but installing Colt McCoy into the starting lineup at quarterback could be the spark that the Redskins need. It has been a bad run for Washington which seeks its first division victory since Week 17 of 2012, and its first two-game winning streak since winning back-to-back games in the final two games of the 2012 season. Those are the types of streaks the public fades and we play on. Dallas is having a surprisingly great season as it has won six straight games while covering five of those. Last week the Cowboys defeated the Giants as 4.5 point favorites and now they are favored by 5.5 points more and there is not a chance Washington is 5.5 points worse than New York. Division games have a certain mystique about them for obvious reasons and this one is no different which makes this point spread completely out of whack. It also brings in an odd dynamic as the Cowboys go from double-digit underdogs two weeks ago to double-digit favorites and while that differential can be seen in college football now and again, it is a rarity in this league. The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS against teams with a losing record while going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 meetings in this series and I expect that to continue tonight. 10* (277) Washington Redskins |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 78 h 44 m | Show |
With the Saints loss last Sunday in Detroit, they have fallen to 2-4 on the season but the good news is that they are part of the worst division in football and are just one game behind Carolina in the NFC South. This is the start of four home games over their next five and that is huge for a team that is completely different in the friendly confines of their dome than they are on the road. The host is a perfect 6-0 in New Orleans games this season and I expect that to continue by the end of the night. Green Bay is coming off a blowout win over Carolina to run its winning streak to four games and it remains tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. The Packers are playing great right now and of course the public is well aware of this which is keeping this line lower than it should be. This could be the worst time for the Packers to have to travel to New Orleans and the primetime slot only makes it a bigger home field edge. Under Drew Brees, the Saints are 14-3 ATS in 17 home games coming off a road loss while under head coach Sean Payton, they are 14-4 ATS in 18 games following any loss of six points or less. The Packers meanwhile have failed to cover in their last five games against teams with a losing record while going 1-11 ATS in their last 12 non-divisional games with a line between +3 and -3. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints |
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10-26-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
The Steelers came through for us last Monday against Houston and there were definitely some good fortunes involved there. While it wasn't their best game overall, the win itself was huge and they can carry that into this week. This is the second of three straight home games for Pittsburgh and it needs to take advantage as the back end of the schedule is brutal. The Steelers are only a game out of first place in the AFC North and with first place Baltimore on deck, this game becomes very important. The hottest team in the AFC is Indianapolis as it has won five straight games while winning at the betting window in all of those games as well. If not for a blown penalty against the Eagles, Indianapolis could feasibly be undefeated against the number but nonetheless, the linesmakers have adjusted this number based on their current run. The Colts have dominated during this stretch, outgaining foes by an average of 212.4 ypg and while some won't step in front of that train, we will go against it here. Pittsburgh has a solid situation on its side also as we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against team allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. This is an excellent test for the Steelers and we see their first real complete game since winning at Carolina last month. 10* (272) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
The Bengals are coming off their worst offensive game in a long time. They gained a mere 135 total yards which was the first time they have been held to fewer than 150 yards of total offense since 2009 in the final game of the regular season. This is now two straight games where Cincinnati has looked completely different than what it looked like at the start of the season and of course, this recent play is what bettors remember the most. On the flip side, Baltimore won its second straight game to move to 5-2 overall with four of those wins coming by 20 or more points. Because of those, the Ravens have a +89 scoring differential which is tops in the NFL. That along with the Bengals recent troubles has given us an exceptional number as the short-term memory of bettors is favoring the contrarian side. The Bengals fall into two outstanding situations. First, we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Baltimore is looking for some payback no doubt however it could not be in a worse spot to try and accomplish that. The Bengals get back to their early season form. 10* (268) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-26-14 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -2.5 | Top | 43-23 | Loss | -125 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
We won with the Jets last Thursday as they played one of their best games of the season despite losing outright against the Patriots. While there is the letdown factor of playing a good game and not winning, the extended time off from last Thursday will help in dealing with that. And even with the effort last week, New York is desperate for a victory. Buffalo meanwhile is coming off a last second victory and that definitely spells letdown following the one point victory over the Vikings. It came with a price though as the Bill lost their top two running backs and now will have to move on with Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown as their lead backs. While the Bills have won twice on the road and could have won a third time at Houston, they are in a tough spot and have not fared well of late, going 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of three points or less while going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing a game at home. Additionally, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, playing a team with a winning percentage of less than .250. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1983. Look for the Jets to finally snap their long losing streak with a comfortable win on Sunday. 10* (262) New York Jets |
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10-26-14 | Nevada v. Hawaii +3 | 26-18 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 54 m | Show | |
We played against Hawaii last week and won with the Warriors being road underdogs but we will back them this week as they come in as the home underdog. The loss last week made it 16 straight losses for Hawaii off the island but it is a much better team at home. The Warriors are 2-2 at home this season with the two losses coming against Washington and Oregon St. by a combined nine points and while the offense has been putrid on the road, it has been good here. They are down to second team quarterback and running back but both are more than capable have heave already proven their worth. Nevada is coming off a very impressive win over BYU last week, impressive until you look at the box score. The Wolf Pack were outgained by 190 total yards but took advantage of three BYU turnovers which was the difference. Nevada has been outgained in five of its six games against FBS opponents, winning three of those and that is something will come back and bite. Nevada is just 2-6 in its last eight games when laying points on the road and cannot be trusted when it has been outgained by a total of 458 yards in its three road games. Wolf Pack are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a non-winning home record while the Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. 9* (200) Hawaii Warriors |
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10-25-14 | South Carolina +17.5 v. Auburn | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 76 h 26 m | Show |
It has been a very disappointing season for South Carolina as it came into season ranked in the top ten in the Preseason AP Poll only to get blown out on opening night. It has not gotten much better since then as it has lost two other times and it now just 4-3 on the season after a less than thrilling win over Furman last week. The Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS as favorites but won and covered in their only game as an underdog which came against Georgia. The number was small but that cannot be said about this one as they are catching their biggest number since 2009 when they caught double-digits twice, and covered both. Auburn is coming off its first loss of the season two weeks ago against Mississippi St. The Tigers were able to rebound last season after losing early in the season but I think it is going to be more difficult this time around. Because of the down season South Carolina is having, the Tigers may not be fully focused here and may be more concerned about their trip to Mississippi next week. We are catching great value as this line was -7 when it was first released by the Golden Nugget over the summer and While South Carolina has regressed, I don't think it is that much. The Gamecocks are 96-2 ATS in 11 games under Steve Spurrier after a win by 28 or more points while going 16-6 ATS under Spurrier against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. 10* (117) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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10-25-14 | Ole Miss v. LSU +4 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 76 h 10 m | Show | |
Mississippi continues to roll as it won at home against Tennessee as it pulled away in the second half last week to improve to a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the number. We were on the wrong side of that but that will not stop us from going against them this week as that perfect streak is what we like to go against. Despite winning their last road game at Texas A&M, the Rebels were outgained by 117 total yards and now that we know the Aggies are a fraud, this will be the toughest road test for Mississippi this year. LSU is coming off a big win over Kentucky as it got its offense in gear and will need to keep that up here. The Tigers have lost at home once this season against Mississippi St. and the last time they have dropped two games at home in the same season was 2008. being a home underdog is even more rare as LSU has been in this roll only four times since 2004 right before Les Miles took over. And three of those were against Alabama. Playing at night here is no sure thing, just ask the Bulldogs earlier this season but LSU has only suffered four home losses at night under Miles. Mississippi has been a road favorite only once this season and that was against lowly Vanderbilt and going back it is 5-12 in its last 17 games as a road favorite. 9* (172) LSU Tigers |
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10-25-14 | Arizona -2.5 v. Washington State | 59-37 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show | |
We will be backing the very next name on the board as Arizona travels to Washington St. in hopes of bouncing back from its first loss of the season. The Wildcats have had two weeks to stew over losing to USC by two points, ending their five-game season opening winning streak. Since blowing out UNLV to open the season, Arizona has been involved in some very close games with each of the last five games being decided by seven points or less. While that may not make this game seem to appealing, this is a different scenario coming off a loss so the Wildcats will be amped. They will also be out for some revenge following last season's seven-point home loss against Washington St. The Cougars desperately need a victory as they are 2-5 but only one of those wins came against an FBS opponent and that was just a one-point win against Utah. Offensively this team is very strong but as per usual, the defense has struggled by allowing at least 477 yards in four of its seven games including over 500 yards twice. That will be an issue against a Wildcats offense that has gone over 454 yards in every game including two games over 600 yards. Arizona falls into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off 1 or more consecutive unders while averaging 31 or more ppg. This situation is 64-25 ATS (71.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (173) Arizona Wildcats |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 26 m | Show |
We got burned badly last week with Oklahoma St. as TCU was able to bounce back after their loss against Baylor. We will back the Cowboys again this week as we are banking on them doing the bouncing back this week. They were pounded by 33 points, outgained by 418 total yards and they failed to score in double-digits for the first time since 2009. it was the second straight poor effort on the road for Oklahoma St. as it squeaked out a seven-point win over lowly Kansas the previous week but now it heads home where it is 4-0 on the season. The Cowboys have lost here only four times since 2010 and those losses were against Oklahoma (twice, Texas and Nebraska. Losing here to West Virginia is not an option, especially after losing in Morgantown last year so revenge comes into play. The Mountaineers pulled off the huge upset last week against Baylor to improve to 5-2 and crack the AP and USA Today top 25 polls. Those are obviously meaningless and that big win over the Bears provides a great letdown opportunity. Oklahoma St. is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 home games following a loss by 21 or more points while the Mountaineers fall into a negative situation as we play against road teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog of seven or more, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (192) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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10-25-14 | UCLA v. Colorado +13.5 | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show | |
Colorado is a live dog in this spot despite what the records of this match up may show. Despite a 2-5 record, the Buffaloes are outgaining opponents by an average of 31.1 ypg which is certainly not very normal for a team with that record. They just have not been able to be clutch at the right time as two of those losses have come by a total of eight points including one in overtime. The offense, which averaged 370 ypg last season is averaging 466.1 ypg this season so they can move the ball and put up points which is important for big underdogs. UCLA has been one of the biggest underachievers in the country as four wins have come by a possession or less while in its only blowout victory, it was actually outgained on the stats sheet. UCLA has a weird dichotomy where it is 1-2 at home and a perfect 4-0 on the road but that sets up well as the line is adjusted to reflect that. Colorado is 1-2 at home but one of those defeats came by only five points while the other came by two touchdowns with the difference being turnovers as the Buffaloes won the yardage battle by 119 yards against Arizona St. Since his time at San Jose St., head coach Mike MacIntyre is 7-0 ATS in his seven home games after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. Meanwhile, UCLA is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after gaining 525 or more total yards. 9* (152) Colorado Buffaloes |
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10-25-14 | San Jose State +9 v. Navy | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 55 m | Show | |
This is the fourth meeting in four years between these two teams and while the previous three games have been close, I expect that to continue here. This is arguably the worst Navy team over this stretch yet the Midshipmen are laying their biggest number of them all and San Jose St. has been within this line in all three of those prior games, winning two of those outright. After two straight wins on the road, Navy lost three in a row before playing a game against VMI two weeks ago that snapped the losing streak. The Midshipmen have failed to cover their last four games and with a very leaky defense, cashing a big number just does not seem feasible. The Spartans are coming off a win at Wyoming last week in overtime despite dominating the stats. They have actually gone 2-1 over their last three games but have won the yardage battle in each game and by a total of 705 yards so they are definitely doing something right. San Jose St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after two or more consecutive straight up wins and 6-0 ATS in its last six road games off a win against a conference rival. Also, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 21 and 28 ppg and coming off 1 or more consecutive unders, going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 59-22 ATS (72.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (145) San Jose St. Spartans |
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10-25-14 | North Carolina v. Virginia -7 | 28-27 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 25 m | Show | |
We lost a tough one with Virginia last week but the outcome of that game and how it transpired sets the Cavaliers up well this week. They lost by a touchdown but actually outgained the Blue Devils by 131 total yards, the sixth time in six tries they have outgained their FBS opponent. Virginia could feasibly be 7-0 right now as it had every chance to defeat UCLA and despite an eight-point loss at BYU, it outgained the Cougars by 187 yards so that was another game it let slip away. North Carolina meanwhile is coming off the opposite type of win as it was victorious despite getting outgained on the field by Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels have been outgained in five of their six games against FBS foes with the line advantage coming by just two yards against Notre Dame. The Cavaliers have the superior defense here, close to a 200 ypg difference and that is a huge discrepancy which will work huge to our advantage. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, going up against teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 41-15 ATS 73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, North Carolina is 6-24 ATS in its last 30 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games while Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. 9* (138) Virginia Cavaliers |
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10-25-14 | UAB +23.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
Taking big underdogs in college football can be a stress maker if they get behind big and have to force a comeback but the one strategy that should always be in play when backing a large underdog is that it needs to be a team that can put a lot of points on the board, thus keeping the backdoor open at all times. UAB is one of those teams. We played against the Blazers last week and won simply because they were favored when they should not have been. Now they are a huge underdog and while they take a big step up in class, look at the second game of the season when they went to Starkville and lost to Mississippi St. by just 13 points while scoring 34. UAB has been outgained only once all season and that was by a mere three yards as they actually outgained the Bulldogs 548-516. This is also a play against Arkansas and as good as it looked against Alabama two weeks ago, it got stuck in neutral last week against Georgia even though it still won the yardage battle. Look for the Razorbacks to go on cruise control for this one as they are coming off three tough games and have Mississippi St. on deck. Here, we play on road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (157) UAB Blazers |
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10-24-14 | South Florida +10.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
After winning just two games last season, South Florida has surpassed that win total through its first seven games and is coming off a huge confidence boosting victory last week. Trailing Tulsa 27-7 at halftime, the Bulls outscored the Golden Hurricane 31-3 in the second half to produce the biggest come-from-behind victory in school history. Those 31 points were more points scored than any of the previous five complete games and that is big to carry over here. Going back, the Bulls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after trailing their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The Bearcats are coming off a win over horrid SMU to improve to 3-3. It was a big win as it snapped a three-game skid, all by blowouts, and while it can bring some confidence back, this Cincinnati team is not very good. There is something to be said about coaches getting teams prepared in different situations and one of those is playing on the road. It is safe to say that Bulls head coach Willie Taggart knows how to do it as since his days at Western Kentucky, his teams are an incredible 23-3 ATS on the road. And the home field edge is not great for Cincinnati as the Bearcats are playing all their 2014 home games at Paul Brown Stadium while Nippert Stadium is undergoing an $86-million renovation and expansion project. Cincinnati is playing with revenge from lost at USF last year but this is too many points to be laying and the Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. 10* (111) South Florida Bulls |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +7.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
The Broncos are coming off one of their best games of the season to make it three straight wins heading into this big AFC West showdown with San Diego. Denver is showing it is still the team to beat and while it sits stop my power rakings, I don't like the spot or the matchup it is involved in. San Diego meanwhile is coming off its second loss of the season as it fell at home by a field goal to the Chiefs. That coupled with the Broncos win gives us the dichotomous results angle which tells us to go opposite of the most recent occurrences. We can take it a step further by going against the streaks of the Broncos three straight cover wins and the Chargers two straight cover losses. The Chargers match up very well with Denver and a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. Last season, the Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense and they kept the other two games close as well. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In three games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. We won against San Diego last week but are backing them here expecting a big bounce back and in addition, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 141-87 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog. 10* (103) San Diego Chargers |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) -2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 0 m | Show |
Thursday nights in Blacksburg aren't what they used to be when Virginia Tech was a perennial top ten team but this is still a very tough place to play and Miami will be challenged. The Hurricanes should be able to meet that challenge however as they are the better team right now and it isn't really that close. The Hurricanes are coming off a bye week following a demolition of Cincinnati in their most recent game and they match up just as good here. The Hokies are struggling on both sides of the ball. Coming off a game in which it rushed for just 26 yards on 22 carries last Thursday against Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech is shuffling its starting offensive line and that is never a good thing. On the other side, ACC Preseason 1st Team defensive tackle Luther Maddy needs surgery on his injured knee and will miss the remainder of the season, and linebacker Chase Williams, the team's leading tackler, will miss the game after suffering a knee injury at Pittsburgh. The latter is bad news for Virginia Tech that will try and stop Duke Johnson who has 787 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.2 ypc. The Hokies were fortunate last year to miss Johnson, who was out the final five games with a broken ankle but they are not as lucky this season. Virginia Tech has been great in this spot as a home underdog over the years but this is a different Virginia Tech team so those past streaks do not mean much in this one. The Hurricanes are part of a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (107) Miami Hurricanes |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 84 h 41 m | Show |
The Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss against division rival Cleveland and while they have regressed the last couple years, I expect a big bounceback on Monday night. Pittsburgh is now 3-3 but is just a game and a half behind the Bengals in the AFC North so there is plenty of room to make a move. This is the first of three straight home games for the Steelers and the other two going to be tough ones against the Colts and Ravens so they know they have to take care of business here. Houston put up a solid effort against Indianapolis last Thursday but fell short and it also fell to 3-3 on the season. That record can be considered a mirage however as the Texans have been outgained in all six of their games this season, the last two coming by 126 yards and 124 yards. The lone road win this season came at winless Oakland and going back to last season, they are 2-12 over their last 14 road games. The Steelers have thrived in these spots as they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as favorites of three points or more coming off a double-digit loss when facing an opponent also off a loss. They have won 15 straight Monday night home games including seven straight wins at Heinz Field since it opened, winning those games by an average of 12.3 ppg. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after having lost two of their last three games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 30 or more points. 10* (478) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-19-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
We played against the Chargers last week as they went to Oakland laying a big number and barely came back home with the victory. Conventional thinking would be to back San Diego this week coming off a poor effort but we are anything but conventional and we will be fading the Chargers again in their second of three straight divisional games. The third one comes next week in Denver on Thursday so there could definitely be a case of peeking ahead to that one. Additionally, San Diego was in a very hard fought, physical game last week in Oakland while the Chiefs are coming off their bye week which happened to follow a loss at San Francisco prior to that. That put a halt to their two-game winning streak and sitting at 2-3, this is a very pivotal game in order to keep pace within the division. Kansas City failed to win following its bye week a season ago but the situation was different as it went in 9-0 and was playing at Denver. That was just the second loss in 18 games for head coach Andy Reid coming off a two-week break. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 95-52 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (469) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-19-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Jacksonville Jaguars +6 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show |
The Jaguars came oh so close to their first win of the season last week as they fought Tennessee to the end only to lose by two points. The good news for Jacksonville backers is that it got its first cover of the season which is a move in the right direction in trying to attain its first outright victory. While the Jaguars were unable to cover their first two home games, they are getting the same number this week as they were in those first two games but are the Browns really that good to be laying this type of number? I don't think so. Cleveland is coming off a big win over the Steelers but it won the yardage battle by only nine total yards so the game was a lot closer than the score indicated. The Browns are playing good but they have not been favored by this much on the road since they came back to Cleveland back in 1999, a span of 122 games. So the fact the Browns are being asked to lay this number coming off a big divisional win is a little too much. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 24 or more ppg and it falls into a negative situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (458) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-19-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
It is a well known fact that New Orleans struggles on the road as it has lost all three games on the road this season but the situation is different this week. The Saints were favored in three of those road games and now they are getting points in Detroit which is certainly more than fair as linesmakers are making the proper adjustment. New Orleans is in a very good spot though as it matches up well against the Lions and the indoor atmosphere certainly will not hurt. Detroit won at Minnesota last week to improve to 4-2 on the season ad remain in a first place tie with Green Bay in the NFC North. While the defense has been playing at a very high level, the offense is not doing much and it is no coincidence. The big edge here for New Orleans is in fact its defense as it will be facing a horrendous offensive line that Detroit possesses. The Saints have struggled on defense but they could be in store for a big turnaround game. Making matters worse for the Lions is the fact that they are 4-19 ATS in their last 23 games against team allowing 27 or more ppg. Additionally, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (467) New Orleans Saints |
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10-18-14 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -7.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 86 h 22 m | Show |
San Diego St. is 3-3 on the season and has yet to win consecutive games but this a great spot to finally begin a winning streak. The Aztecs have been a great second half team the last two years as they started 3-3 in both 2012 and 2013 and went on to go 10-2 after the midway point in those season and we can expect more of the same this season. A big reason is the fact they returned only 10 starters from last season so it has taken some time for the chemistry to come around and they are coming off their most dominating game of the season, outgaining New Mexico by 204 total yards. Hawaii is also coming off a win and its most dominating game of the season, outgaining Wyoming by 191 total yards. But that was at home. The road and Hawaii mix like oil and vinegar as it has lost 15 consecutive games off the island and while it has covered seven of those games, the number makes the difference. Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in those games when getting only single digits and I feel this spread is way too low as well. The Warriors have put up only 26 points in their two road games combined while San Diego St. is allowing just 12 ppg at home. San Diego St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. 10* (406) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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10-18-14 | Tennessee +16.5 v. Ole Miss | 3-34 | Loss | -108 | 83 h 1 m | Show | |
Mississippi continues to roll as it won at Texas A&M last week to improve to a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the number. The Rebels are ranked in the top three in most power rankings and for good reason but after a dominating start to the season, they have been outgained in each of the last two games, by 73 yards against Alabama and by 117 yards against the Aggies last week. They won the turnover battle 3-0 and scored two touchdown directly off miscues and with LSU on deck, this has the typical makings of a letdown/lookahead situation. Tennessee is coming off a much needed win over Chattanooga of the FCS last week. It was important to get the confidence level back up after suffering consecutive losses against Georgia and Florida by a combined four points. The Volunteers are outgaining opponents by an average of 31.2 ypg and while that may seem unimpressive, playing the sixth toughest schedule in the nation makes it impressive. While they look to be overmatched here, the Volunteers defense has been playing at a high level and that will be what keeps them in this game this week. They fall into a simple yet effective situation based on that as we play on road teams after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 186-109 ATS (63.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (387) Tennessee Volunteers |
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10-18-14 | Miami (OH) v. Northern Illinois -11 | Top | 41-51 | Loss | -105 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
We played against Northern Illinois last week and it paid off as the Huskies lost outright against Central Michigan as more than a touchdown underdog. It was mentioned that they are not the same team as in years past and continue to struggle as the offense has been unable to generate points but I think that finally changes here. Because of the struggles, we get to buy Northern Illinois low and feel the spot is ideal this week. Miami is coming off a loss at Akron last week which came after its first win of the season against Massachusetts prior to that. That victory actually snapped a 21-game losing streak so while it was big to end the enormous slide, clearly little momentum was gained from it. Northern Illinois has lost consecutive regular season games only once since 2010, going 4-1 following a defeat and the one time it did lose a back-to-back, the second came against Wisconsin. Miami s 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a road cover where it lost as an underdog and we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after having lost four or five out of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (318) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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10-18-14 | Oklahoma State +9 v. TCU | 9-42 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 1 m | Show | |
TCU was involved in a heck of a game last week as it lost to Baylor 61-58. We backed the Horned Frogs despite them coming off a big win against Oklahoma as there was no time for a letdown in facing the undefeated Bears in a huge rivalry game no less. Now the time has come for a fade as coming off those two big games and the way the last one ended will be hard to recover from. Oklahoma St. meanwhile has been quietly riding a five-game winning streak following its season opening loss against Florida St. The Cowboys conference opponents haven't exactly been very strong but I like the fact they go from double-digit favorites in all of those games to now a significant underdog. They went through a sleepwalk last week at Kansas but they will definitely wake up here in trying to remain undefeated in Big XII play. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after four or more consecutive wins and they fall into a fantastic situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a road loss by three points or less, playing a team with a winning record This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 9* (395) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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10-18-14 | UAB v. Middle Tennessee State +1.5 | Top | 22-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
Here is another situation, like Thursday, where I think the wrong team is favored and it is largely based on recent results which is what most gamblers usually only remember. Middle Tennessee is coming off a blowout loss against Marshall which has been the case for most teams playing the Thundering Herd and that snapped its two-game winning streak. Meanwhile, UAB defeated North Texas by 35 points but was actually outgained by the Mean Green. The Blazers took advantage of five turnovers, three of which were directly returned for touchdowns. That victory, along with the Middle Tennessee loss to Marshall, is what is driving this line and it is a rarity for UAB to be favored on the road as it has happened only six times the last eight years. Coming back home is big for the Blue Raiders as they are 3-0 here this season and are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. Additionally, Middle Tennessee has won seven of its last nine games after a loss while going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. On the other side, UAB is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. Middle Tennessee has a chance to improve to 4-1 in the conference and can ill afford a loss in a winnable game to keep bowl hopes alive. 10* (366) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
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10-18-14 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -11.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
We made a bad call on Texas A&M last week as we should have stuck to our guns from the previous week after saying the Aggies have not defeated any team of note with arguably the best win coming against Arkansas. The season is starting to slip away already and it can only get worse here as the situation could not be worse for Texas A&M heading into a hornets nest. Alabama is not the same Alabama we are accustomed to, at least that is what we are hearing from the talking heads but I have to disagree with that assessment. The Crimson Tide have struggled away from home as it was in a tight battle against West Virginia in the Georgia Dome, lost at Mississippi and then won at Arkansas by just one point. They have dominated at home however, winning by a combined 135-33 and while this game will be the biggest test, I expect the Tide to pass with flying colors as a return home is just what they need. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 450 or more ypg in three straight games. Alabama meanwhile is 7-1 ATS in its last eight SEC games against teams off a double-digit loss. 10* (370) Alabama Crimson Tide |
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10-18-14 | Virginia +3 v. Duke | 13-20 | Loss | -113 | 77 h 31 m | Show | |
The ACC Coastal Division is wide open and this game is big for both sides. Virginia currently leads the division with a 2-0 record and it can gain some breathing room with a victory here and there is no reason to think it won't happen. The Cavaliers are coming off their bye week after six weeks of no rest so that will be an advantage here. Virginia could feasibly be 6-0 right now as it had every chance to defeat UCLA and despite an eight-point loss at BYU, it outgained the Cougars by 187 yards so that was another game it let slip away. Duke lost three weeks ago at Miami and we were on the right side of that one as the Blue Devils were outgained by 162 yards. They bounced back with a win last week following their bye but were outgained by 110 yards against Georgia Tech which is a major concern. Here we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Despite this being the best Virginia team in three years, the Cavaliers have actually been favored the previous two meetings and now they are the underdog so we are catching the points at the perfect time. 9* (327) Virginia Cavaliers |
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10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -120 | 38 h 53 m | Show |
Rankings are based on opinions from some people who should not even be giving opinions. That is the case here for Utah and taking nothing away from the Utes and their 4-1 record, but they should not be ranked. One win came against Idaho St. of the FCS, another case against Fresno St. which is having a very disappointing season. The other two victories would have been considered marquee victories early in the season but Michigan and UCLA have been majors busts this season. The Utes have been outgained the last three games and that is a major concern. Oregon St. comes in with an identical 4-1 record with the lone loss coming at USC in blowout fashion. While the Beavers schedule has been nothing special either, it needs to be noted that they have won the yardage battle in their four victories, and by a lot. Oregon St. is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games coming off a conference win by seven points or less while going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games with a line between +3 and -3 coming off a bye. Additionally, we play against road favorites that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by six or less points. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (308) Oregon St. Beavers |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
The Jets have to cover at some point and this looks like the best spot for it to happen. We got puked on last week when Geno Smith threw a pick six in the waning seconds to blow the cover for us against Denver and while it has been a rough season for New York with five straight losses, this is a game they will be sky high for. The Patriots were thought to be done a few short weeks ago after getting blown out by Kansas City but now they are once again being praised as being back. I don't think they were ever gone but I also do not think they are as good as some do think and they should not be laying this many points to a division rival, no matter the record differentials. While it may not seem like it, the Jets defense is still pretty good as they are ranked sixth overall but has been hurt by getting pinned deep in their own end of the field several times. The Jets fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 2-9 ATS since 2012 as a favorite of 8 or more points during the regular season. 10* (303) New York Jets |
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10-14-14 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Texas State | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Louisiana was the preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference by most and sitting at 1-0, it is certainly in the mix. The Cajuns will try to keep pace with Georgia Southern which is already off to a 4-0 start and this could be the statement game they need. They have yet to cover a game against an FBS opponent, most recently sneaking by Georgia St. by three points as a 16-point favorite. Back-to-back blowout losses on the road against Mississippi and Boise St. preceded that which is a big reason they are underdogs in this spot. Texas St. also comes in at 1-0 in the conference following its win over Idaho in its last game. The Vandals are arguably the worst team in the FBS and are 0-6 yet the Bobcats had a tough time, winning by just five points and getting outgained by 57 yards. They have actually been outgained by all four FBS opponents so despite the 2-2 record, things seem to be skewed. Louisiana is the most experienced team in the conference on both sides of the ball and that will show tonight. The Cajuns are is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games versus teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 6-0 ATS in their last six road games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (301) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns |
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10-12-14 | NY Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 39 m | Show | |
After losing their first two games, the Giants were being tossed around as possibly the first team to quit on their coach this season but that was clearly not the case. After a dreadful preseason on offense, it carried over into those first two games but that the new system is finally starting to become more familiar to the players, we are seeing the success. New York has won three straight games while averaging 35 ppg in the process and they are catching the Eagles at the perfect time. Philadelphia may be 4-1 on the season but they are arguably the worst one loss team in the NFL and could be sitting at 1-4 right now. The Eagles have been outgained by 132, 194 and 114 yards over their last three games and while they have been scoring plenty of points, the offensive efficiency is actually one of the worst in the league. And the defense has been bad as they are ranked 28th overall and 25th in points allowed. Sunday night divisional underdogs have been money in these roles as we play on divisional underdogs of six points or less playing a team with a winning percentage of .667 or better. This situation is 18-3 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1987. The underdog has covered 14 of the last 19 meetings in this series and that certainly favors the Giants which has been road warriors, going 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 home games. 9* (275) New York Giants |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 25 m | Show |
Many predicted San Diego to be a sleeper team in the NFL this season and so far it is living up to expectations. If for not blowing an 11-point lead in Arizona opening weekend, the Chargers would be 5-0 right now and the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL. The one thing they are undefeated at is their record against the number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS and they are the only team that has yet to fail on a cover this year. San Diego cruised to a win over the Jets last Sunday and it could not have looked better as it outgained New York 439-151 and that makes this the perfect time to go against the Chargers especially with the Chiefs on deck. Oakland had a week off which came at a perfect time and it also will be breaking in a new coach after Dennis Allen was hired and replace by interim coach Tony Soprano. The Raiders got thumped in London in their last game but that works in their favor here as in the eight previous games played across the pond, there have been five teams that lost by more than a touchdown prior to this year and all five of those teams covered their next game with four winning outright and the other resulting in the Rams/49ers tie back in 2012. this is just the second home game of the season for Oakland and despite losing its first against Houston, it outgained the Texans by 37 total yards. Great spot here for the Raiders. 10* (270) Oakland Raiders |
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10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 19 m | Show | |
The Packers are coming off a flawless performance last Thursday night against Minnesota but they had the advantage of the Vikings not being able to keep up because of the quarterback issues. Green Bay is now 3-2 on the season following its second straight victory but it is hard to ignore the home/road dichotomy when it comes to the stats. In two home games, Green Bay has won the yardage battle by 78 and 21 yards which is not very impressive. On the road, it is even worse as the Packers have been outgained by 143, 130 and 138 yards and its -62.4 ypg variance is fifth worst in the NFL. Conversely, the Dolphins are +32 ypg in yardage variance as they have been outgained just twice and by a total of 35 yards. Miami is coming off a dominating performance in London over the Raiders and is also coming off its bye week. The Dolphins are 1-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming against Kansas City in a game that was closer than the final score indicates. While we don't usually talk about weather until later in the season when snow or wind can affect a game, the weather in Miami can be a big advantage with temperatures getting close to 90 degrees and that can take its toll on a team from Green Bay. Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home games while the Packers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-divisional games with a line of -3 to +3. 9* (260) Miami Dolphins |
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10-12-14 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 20 m | Show |
As fast as we jumped on the Patriots last week following their horrible performance at Kansas City two weeks ago, we will jump off them just as fast this week following their great performance this past Sunday night against the Bengals. Everyone had them written off but now it seems everyone has jumped back on them and this line is a reaction to that. While I don't think they were as bad as they looked in Kansas City, I don't think they are as good as they looked last week and the Bengals just did not show up. Now New England goes into the rare situation of going from a home underdog to a road favorite within the span of a week and that plays into a great situation explained at the end. The Bills are getting no credit here but coming off a come-from-behind win at Detroit has this team brimming with confidence as it tries to knock off its division rival for the first time since 2011, a span of five straight losses. The Bills could feasibly be 4-1 if not for giving a game away at Houston and they are coming in here with a chip on their should due to the lack of respect. Here we play against divisional road favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against teams coming off a win. This situation is 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1980. The Patriots simply cannot be trusted on the road anymore as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 highway games. 10* (266) Buffalo Bills |
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10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +11 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
We made a horrible call on the Jets last week in San Diego as they were humiliated 31-0. the mustered a mere 151 yards of total offense and were outgained by 288 yards in the process. New York is now 1-4 on the season and it has yet to cover a game so we knew this line would be big coming in but it has now gotten out of control. While Denver is considered the best team in the AFC, San Diego is no longer far behind which makes this line completely inaccurate. If this game were being played in Denver, the Broncos would be roughly a 16-point favorite and last week the Chargers were favored by seven points which states that Denver is nine points better than San Diego? I don't think so. This line is purely an overreaction to last week and the short-term memory that gamblers have. The Broncos are coming off a near perfect performance against Arizona last week and that is also being taken into consideration with this number. That was a big bounce back game for Denver which was coming off a loss in Seattle preceding its bye so you knew they were going to come out strong. With home games against San Francisco and San Diego on deck, being fully focused here is very unlikely. Denver is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win while New York 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after scoring less than 15 points. 10* (252) New York Jets |
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10-11-14 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -3 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 19 m | Show |
We played against Texas A&M last week as it suffered its first loss of the season at Mississippi St. that was a tough spot for the Aggies as it was their first true test of the season and while they failed, I expect them to bounce back this week. A big factor here is the timing of this game as it is a night start at College Station which makes for an even bigger atmosphere. Typically with a big game on deck, we would not go this route but even with a game at Alabama next Saturday, Texas A&M knows it needs to bounce back here. Speaking of Alabama, the Rebels are coming off a huge upset of the Crimson Tide last Saturday to move to 5-0 on the season. They jumped all the way from 11th in the nation into a tie for 3rd with Mississippi St. in the AP Poll and that is a pretty lofty move. That isn't saying it wasn't well deserved because of the upset but I don't think this team is a top five team at the time. Add to the fact the letdown factor and Mississippi should be in ripe shape for its first loss. The Aggies are playing their first true hole game since September 13th which only adds to the edge they will have here. Texas A&M will be ready and after winning the last two meetings the last two years in Mississippi by three points each, the Aggies get the job done at home is easier fashion by what many think will be an upset but that is not the case. 10* (188) Texas A&M Aggies |
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10-11-14 | Penn State v. Michigan -1 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 118 h 4 m | Show |
We snuck out a win with Michigan last week as it stayed within the number but still suffered its third straight loss to fall to 2-4 on the season. The time has come where the Wolverines are in a true must win scenario or the season will be ready to spiral downhill quickly as they are on the cusp on that right now. I like the fact they have lost two straight home games as it should certainly have them stoked to get a win plus it gives us some excellent value with the line. They will also be out for revenge from last year's overtime loss almost a year ago to the day which was the fourth straight loss in this series. Penn St. was off last week as it tried to regroup from its 23-point loss at home against Northwestern two weeks ago and the bye definitely came art the right time I just don't know how much it cam help. This is the first road game in a month for the Nittany Lions and while they did win at Rutgers where Michigan just lost, it was far from dominating as it was a game that could have gone either way. Michigan has rival Michigan St. on deck but with everything at stake, that matters little especially considering the Wolverines will be entering their first bye week of the season. The Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record and they add to that with a possible season saving win on Saturday. 10* (194) Michigan Wolverines |
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10-11-14 | Central Michigan +11 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 116 h 4 m | Show |
The Chippewas picked up a big win last time out as they crushed Ball St. by 18 points and while that margin of victory may not seem huge, they fact they outgained the Bobcats by 280 total yards was dominating. It was the second game that running back Thomas Rawls and wide receiver Titus Davis were back in the lineup and it made a huge difference as the two accounted for 426 of their 467 total yards. I expect them to use that game as a momentum boost to try and snap their two-game losing streak against the Huskies. This line may seem low to some for Northern Illinois considering it was favored by 26 points last week against Kent St. and last season, it was favored by 14.5 points at Central Michigan but this line is too big in my opinion. This is not the same Huskies team we are used to as the loss of quarterback Jordan Lynch is still being felt. The offense has not been clicking like it used to and scoring only 17 points last week against the Golden Flashes is a big concern. After defeating Presbyterian out of the FCS, the Huskies have struggled in all of their other games including a win against UNLV that needed a late touchdown to pull away. They are outgaining FBS opponent by just 55 yards total on the season. Momentum is not on their side as the Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Chippewas are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (177) Central Michigan Chippewas |
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10-11-14 | TCU +10.5 v. Baylor | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 115 h 33 m | Show | |
TCU picked up a huge home win over then 4th ranked Oklahoma and all of a sudden the Horned Frogs are right in the college football playoff talk. They moved from 25th to 9th in the latest AP Poll and while ranking don't mean a lot, they made the biggest jump of the week and there is no time to celebrate. If they were playing a cupcake, that would be a great time to go against them but in this case, they are facing a team that is actually ranked ahead of them so they will be ready to go once again. This line is not taking that into consideration however. Baylor is coming off an uneven effort against Texas as the Bears were held to a season low 28 points and not because of a bad day on offense but more so the fact they were facing a very tough defense in Texas. Now the challenge gets even tougher. Granted the challenge will be tough for the Horned Frogs as well but we love playing a team with a string defense that is an underdog by double-digits. TCU is playing with revenge as well following last season's three-point loss that ended their season. The horned Frogs held Baylor to 370 yards of offense easily its lowest output of the season and the talent is there for a repeat performance. They have been solid in bounce back mode as the Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 9* (147) TCU Horned Frogs |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 115 h 33 m | Show |
It has been a very rough stretch for North Carolina as it has lost its last three games by a combined 61 points and it has not been kind to its backers as it has yet to cover a game this season. The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the number counting their game against Liberty of the FCS and they definitely are not getting much support here. The opportunity here though sets up very well for a bounceback even though they are facing their toughest opponent of the season. Notre Dame is coming off a huge win over Stanford as it scored the game winning touchdown with just one minute left to move to 5-0, moving it into 6th place in the most recent AP Poll. If that isn't a spot for a letdown, nothing is and making matters even tougher this week is that the Irish travel to top ranked Florida St. next week so they are in a letdown/lookahead scenario this week. The defense has been outstanding as Notre Dame has yet to allow more than 17 points but the Tar Heel have the ability to score a lot and this could be the one game that Notre Dame won't be 100 percent vested. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (175) North Carolina Tar Heels |
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10-11-14 | Northwestern v. Minnesota -3 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 111 h 3 m | Show | |
Northwestern picked up its biggest win of the season by far as it defeated Wisconsin last week to make it three straight wins and push it over .500 for the first time this season. The Wildcats were outgained however but they took advantage of four Wisconsin interceptions which made the difference. Northwestern now hits the road for just the second time this season and while they did win at Penn St. in their first roadie, they were coming off a game against Western Illinois so there was no chance of not looking forward to that one. Now they are ripe for a letdown. Minnesota is 4-1 on the season with their only loss coming against TCU in their third game. Last time out, they pulled off the upset at Michigan by 16 points while outgaining the Wolverines by 202 yards. The good news is that they rode that win into their bye week so there is no lingering effect plus the extra preparation time is on their side as well. This team is no fluke as after going 8-5 last season, they brought back 15 starters so the solid start is far from surprising. The Gophers have covered seven of their last eight games as home favorites while going 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the first of back-to-back home games. Additionally, they have covered seven straight in the Big Ten while the Wildcats are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. This is the start of four straight winnable games and they need them as the later part of the schedule is a bear. 9* (116) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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10-11-14 | UL-Monroe +20.5 v. Kentucky | 14-48 | Loss | -105 | 111 h 2 m | Show | |
Kentucky is coming off its biggest win since 2011 as it defeated South Carolina, rallying from a 14-point deficit with just over eight minutes left. The Wildcats scored two touchdowns in six minutes before returning an interception for a touchdown with 2:29 left to pull off the improbable victory. The Wildcats now have four wins which has matched their win total from the previous two seasons combined but now they are stuck in a very tough situation in trying to stay focused after that win. Not only is there the letdown effect but Kentucky travels to LSU next week to take on the Tigers for just the second time since 2008. this nonconference sandwich game can be deadly. UL-Monroe is coming off a loss at Arkansas St., its first Sun Belt loss after winning its first two conference games. This is a great opportunity for the Warhawks to rebound and they will not be intimidated as they have three wins over power conference teams over the last two seasons. This is the biggest number Kentucky has been favored by over an FBS opponent since 2010 so while they are having a great season, this line is overadjusted based on last week. A noon start is in our favor as well as it will be a totally different environment than it was last Saturday night against the Gamecocks. The Wildcats have covered just three of their last 10 games following a win while going back, they are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. 9* (185) UL-Monroe Warhawks |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
We do not typically lay points on the road in the NFL but we are making the exception here as we are catching a line that is very favorable. The Colts enter Thursday night riding a three-game winning streak after starting the season 0-2 and they can put some ground between them and the rest of the division with a victory tonight. The two losses came against Philadelphia and Denver, both of which have just one loss and they actually ended up outgaining the Broncos. That is part of a big reasoning for playing Indianapolis here. It has outgained four of its five opponents with the last three coming by 185, 237 and 135 yards and overall, the average margin is +97.4 ypg. In contrast, the Texans have not outgained a single opponent this season and they have been outgained by an average of 47.6 ypg which isn't a huge amount but the fact they have not been on the plus side in the stats is a huge concern. The schedules have not been the reasoning either as Houston has played the 29th ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 30th ranked slate. The difference has been turnovers for the Texans as they have 12 takeaways and their turnover percentage is ranked third in the NFL. After committing five turnovers in the first four games, the Colts had four last week so that can be chalked up as an anomaly. We will take our chances with the much better quarterback and the undoubtedly better 3-2 team here. 10* (101) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-09-14 | BYU +3.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
BYU got knocked off last Friday for the first time this season as it lost to Utah St. as a 21-point favorite. The Cougars have now dropped three straight games against the number, all as double-digit favorites but they are in a completely different role this Thursday. Speaking of losing, BYU has to deal with losing quarterback Taysom Hill for the season after he suffered a broken leg against the Aggies and it was all downhill from there as replacement Christian Stewart was horrible. Coming in non-prepared like that is tough for any quarterback but even though this week is a short week, Stewart at least will have taken reps with the first team so the adjustment will be a lot better now. Central Florida won last Thursday over Houston as it forced a late turnover to pull out the win and improve to 2-2 on the season. Now the Knights are sandwiched in-between two conference games and while playing under the Thursday night lights is big, they are not the better team here, even with Hill out. The quarterback situation in Central Florida is just as bas if not worse so the Knights are being forced to run which is the strength of the Cougars defense. We are getting a huge line edge here also as the loss of hill has adjusted this line by over 10 points which is simply too much. The Cougars are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as regular season underdogs while going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The value is too hard to pass up here. 10* (103) BYU Cougars |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +7.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
While I think the Seattle defense is not getting the credit it deserves based on what the media is blurting out, the same can be said for the Redskins defense. While they have allowed 82 points the last two weeks, the defense is not to blame on all of that. Six turnovers against the Giants last week led to 31 points and the four touchdowns were all on short fields including two from 24 and 22 yards. The Giants had the ball for close to 15 minutes more than the Redskins which led to more yards and the wearing out the Washington defense. Against the Eagles, they allowed just 379 yards but penalties and special teams hurt them there. They don't have to play a perfect game to succeed here but they just have to be better in other areas to help the defense. Kirk Cousins had a dreadful game last week, posting a 53.0 passer rating which came after putting up rating of 109.4 and 103.4 his first two games. Getting through the Seahawks defense will not be easy as it has en elite secondary so we should see more short passes and running from Washington which can shorten the game, keep Seattle off the field on offense and that benefits the underdog. The Redskins fall into a spectacular situation where we play on home underdogs of three points or more that are coming off a loss of 24 or more points. This situation is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1980. Additionally, Washington is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit loss at home. While the public is all over the over yet again, it is also all over Seattle yet we have seen this line drop so the reverse line movement is on our side. 10* (478) Washington Redskins |
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10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots +2 | Top | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 82 h 53 m | Show |
Anyone who watches ESPN or follows some of the other media outlets on Twitter has been told over and over again that the Patriots are done and Tom Brady is washed up. Clearly, things are not right in New England as it is now 2-2 following its shellacking at the hands of the Chiefs last Monday night. Brady is having his worst season statistically as he is still trying to work with some new personnel but there is no chance we will see him down for very long. New England opened as the favorite here and after everyone saw what happened Monday, it is now a home underdog for the first time since 2005. Cincinnati comes in at 3-0 and fresh off its bye week. The Bengals opened the season on the road at Baltimore but this is the first time they have had to travel since then. Being favored here is clearly an overadjustment and we can prove that based on their last game. Being a point favorite here would make them a seven-point favorite at home which is a half-point higher than what they were favored b y over the Titans in their last game. The Titans a half-point better than New England? I think not. Additionally, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (476) New England Patriots |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
This is the classic contrarian play in going against spread records as well as teams going in the opposite direction. The Jets opened the season with a win over the Raiders, which isn't saying much, but they have now lost three straight games to fall to 1-3 and 0-3-1 ATS. Overall, New York is outgaining opponents by an average of 74.7 ypg but the difference between wins and losses has been turnovers where it is -6 in turnover margin. After dropping its opening game in Arizona, San Diego has won three straight games and overall the Chargers are 4-0 against the number which has inflated this line a significant amount. They have been the opposite of New York when it comes to turnovers as the Chargers are +5 in turnover margin and they have not turned it over in three straight games. While the Jets have a significant edge in yardage margin, San Diego is just +26.3 ypg. Adding all of this up proves how much turnovers can affect a team, whether good or bad, and how much it can influence records and with that, public perception. The Jets have a positive situation on their side based on turnovers as we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 134-81 ATS (62.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the point differential being +2 ppg favoring the play on team. 10* (473) New York Jets |
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10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 78 h 39 m | Show | |
Both Arizona and Denver are coming off their bye weeks which typically would not give an edge to either side. But in this case, what happened prior to last week is what really matters. The Broncos lost their last game at Seattle in overtime to fall to 2-1 on the season. We remember last season when Denver came out of the games and started 6-0 with six solid efforts. This season though it has yet to put together a dominating effort as both wins came by just one touchdown and the Broncos have been outgained in all three games. While that normally calls for a go against, this is not your average team and they will come out with a big effort. The Cardinals are one of two remaining undefeated teams and while I have them ranked high in the power rankings mostly due to stats, I think they are overrated. The only road game so far was at New York against a Giants team still trying to figure things out. Without Carson Palmer at quarterback, Arizona could be in for a very long day. The Broncos are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against teams allowing 235 or more ypg, which will have Peyton Manning licking his chops, and they fall into a powerful situation where we play against teams coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 9* (470) Denver Broncos |
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10-05-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Tennessee Titans -1 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 35 m | Show |
We lost with Tennessee last week as the Titans got crushed in Indianapolis but we will come back with them here this week After opening the season with a win at Kansas City, Tennessee has dropped three straight games all by 16 points or more. That makes this the perfect play on situation as we get line value with a team in desperate need of a victory. The schedule hasn't helped much as three of the first four games have all come on the road. The Titans will be getting Jake Locker back this week after a poor effort from Charlie Whitehurst against the Colts and that could make a big difference here. The Brown are 1-2 but have been involved in every game with the two losses coming on last second field goals. While the games have been close, Cleveland has yet to outgain any of its three opponents which does tell a different story. This is the first road game in a month for the Browns as they have played two in a row at home followed by their bye week. Tennessee is ranked 30th in scoring offense but this could be the breakout game against a poor Browns defense. The low offensive output favors the Titans in a solid situation as we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Tennessee Titans |
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10-05-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10 | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 34 m | Show |
New Orleans is 1-3 and it is being written off by some of the media which is far from accurate. The Saints do have an uphill battle for sure but those three losses all came on the road so now the time comes to get back home and take advantage of the huge edge they have here. There is no doubt this is a must win game and it is even important as New Orleans has their bye next week and going into that 1-4 with a game at Detroit the following week spells disaster. Teams that are a touchdown or more at home the week before their bye are 35-9 ATS. Tampa Bay got into the win column last week with an upset at Pittsburgh in the final seconds. That was a huge win for the Buccaneers following their debacle at Atlanta 10 days before but I cannot see them hanging around here in what is their third straight road game. Tampa Bay has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 103.5 ypg as it brings in the 29th ranked scoring offense and 31st ranked scoring defense as well. The Saints thrive in these spots, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 102-56 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (460) New Orleans Saints |
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10-04-14 | Boise State -3 v. Nevada | Top | 51-46 | Win | 100 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
We played against Boise St. last Saturday and it worked out for us as the Broncos lost at Air Force as big favorites. The main reason they lost was that they committed seven turnovers and they were unable to work back from a 28-0 deficit. Boise St. outgained the Falcons 467-335 so while it was the better team on the day, it was not the better team on the scoreboard. All that does is set the Broncos up this week for one of our "misleading public reversals" and it gets even better. Nevada won last week at San Jose St. 21-10 but it was on the wrong side of the yardages as it was outgained by 190 total yards. The Wolf Pack were fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0, one of which was returned for a touchdown. This adds to the Boise St. reversal and the two misleading scores help us immensely this week as we are catching a great number and one that is smaller than it should be. Looking at the history of this series and you will see that Nevada has covered the last five meetings but Boise St. won four of those and the spread wins were based on big lines, not like the one we have here. Boise St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. 10* (415) Boise St. Broncos |
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10-04-14 | Pittsburgh +7 v. Virginia | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 0 m | Show |
After a perfect 3-0 start, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games against Iowa and Akron and both of those were as favorites. Losing to Iowa was a downer as the Panthers outgained the Hawkeyes by 124 total yards but were unable to hold onto a 10-point lead. Last week's loss to the Zips was inexcusable and it was clear that Pittsburgh did not come to play after the previous loss but the defeat last week can now serve as a wake up call. A loss this week could be devastating and head coach Paul Chryst could have a tough time not losing his team. The Panthers are on a bye so there are now no excuses. Virginia was picked to finish dead last in the ACC Coastal Division but it is off to a surprising 3-2 start which is already one more win than all of last season. Even the losses weren't bad as the Cavaliers fell to UCLA and BYU by eight points each and going back to last season, they have now covered seven straight games. What that does is cause this line to be overadjusted which is certainly the case here as Virginia is a favorite against a power conference team for the first time since being favored by two points over Duke last season. Virginia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games as a single digit favorite while Pittsburgh falls into one of the best college situations around as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (331) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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10-04-14 | Michigan +3 v. Rutgers | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show |
Michigan been in the news a lot this week but for all of the wrong reasons. Whether it was because of mishandling of injuries or demonstrations to fire the athletic director or talk about the head coach needing to be let go, it is not very pleasant in Ann Arbor right now. This is where players need to recognize what is going on and play like they should play and not like the way they did last week in a home loss against Minnesota. Hitting the road after a three-game homestand is just what this team needs right now so the situation is in the Wolverines favor. They have dropped four straight against the number since destroying Appalachian St. opening week and that is putting the majority on the other side. Rutgers is 4-1 to start the season but it does not own a marquee victory as its toughest opponent was Penn St. and that resulted in the lone defeat. The Scarlet Knights have been outgained in three of five games this season including one against Howard from the FCS. Michigan meanwhile has outgained four of five opponents so despite the records, it can be argued Michigan is still the much better team and that is hard to disagree with. While Hoke is getting a lot of grief, and rightfully so, he has been great in getting his teams to bounce back off poor performances. The Wolverines managed a mere 171 yards of offense against Minnesota last week and in his career, Hoke is 7-0 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game and 14-2 ATS in 16 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. 10* (399) Michigan Wolverines |
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10-04-14 | Stanford v. Notre Dame +2 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show | |
Notre Dame cost us last week in New Jersey as it defeated Syracuse 31-15. The Fighting Irish outgained the Orange by 94 yards but let Syracuse hand around thanks to five turnovers so the final score feasibly could have been a lot worse. They head back home to face another tough test and full focus will be prevalent with a game against north Carolina on deck. The Fighting Irish are ranked higher than the Cardinal but are the underdog which is just the second time since the start of the 2011 season that an opponent has been favored at Notre Dame Stadium. Stanford won last week at Washington and depending on when the bet was placed on either side, it could have resulted in a win, loss or push. The Cardinal were clearly the right side in that game as they outgained the Huskies by 185 total yards and they have won the yardage battle in all four games. While that would normally spark a play on them, this is not a good spot. Notre Dame will be out for revenge following a seven-point loss in Palo Alto last season. Stanford has the best defense in the nation as it is the only team that is allowing fewer than 200 ypg but it hasn't exactly played the most daunting schedule. This will be a test for Notre Dame but it is averaging its most ypg on offense since 2009. going back, the Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record while the Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. 9* (368) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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10-04-14 | Navy -4 v. Air Force | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 60 m | Show |
Navy is off to a disappointing 2-3 start following consecutive losses the last two Saturday's. Both of those came at home no less where they are 0-2 but the Midshipmen have won both of their road games while outgaining both opponents in doing so. They were favored then and they are favored again here for good reason and they will come in hungry and look to avoid matching their loss total from all of last season. We won with Air Force last week as it was aided by seven Boise St. turnovers. Had that not occurred, chances are the Falcons would not have won outright but I feel that puts them in a tough spot here against a team they have had trouble with over the years. This has been a tightly contested series over the last few years but Navy has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings. The Falcons have already surpassed their win total from last season but last week can be considered a fluke and a won over Nicholls St. was far from impressive. In the other victory over Georgia Southern, Air Force was outgained there also and the good fortunes cannot last all season. Navy is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games against teams allowing 3.25 or fewer ypc so it knows how to adjust. Additionally, the Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, Air Force is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. 10* (373) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-04-14 | Florida +3 v. Tennessee | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 65 h 31 m | Show | |
We played on Florida in its last game and it got manhandled at Alabama. Having a week off after that game could not have come at a better time for the Gators as they try to get more healthy despite playing only three games thus far. One key figure is the return of left tackle D.J. Humphries and he is the spark to the offensive line which is not the same without him. This is a must win for Florida as it faces LSU next week which means it could be starting 2-3 in the face before facing Missouri. Tennessee put up a big fight last week against Georgia as it lost by three points and it is now riding a two-game skid heading back home. It can be argued that this is a must win for the Volunteers as well but the problem here is with personnel for the Volunteers as it is tough to win a must win game when the team is so young. Florida has owned this series with nine straight wins and this is the first time since that streak started that the Gators have been underdogs. I don't think a lot has changed even from last season to make Tennessee the favorite here. Florida was getting 14 points in Alabama and now it is getting 11.5 points less here and there is no way that Tennessee is just 11.5 points worse than the Tide. Florida falls into an awesome rushing situation as we play against teams that are averaging between 3 to 3.5 ypc going up against teams allowing between 3 to 3.5 ypc, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. This situation is 23-2 ATS (92 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (377) Florida Gators |
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10-04-14 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -2 | 31-48 | Win | 100 | 65 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a great scheduling spot for Mississippi St. The Bulldogs are coming off a win at LSU two weeks ago, one of the biggest victories for them in recent memory. The best news is that it was two weeks ago so celebration time is long past and they can concentrate on the task at hand. They have not been at home in a month because of two straight road games and the bye so this is going to be one electric atmosphere in Starkville. Texas A&M came flying from under the radar and just like that, they are a top ten team. Who have the Aggies beaten though? The opening victory against South Carolina was a huge quality win at the time but the Gamecocks are showing how overrated they were coming into the season to that victory means little now. The best team they have defeated since then was Arkansas last week but it took overtime to do so which has added to the scheduling advantage mentioned before. I really do not see how Texas A&M can be ranked so high after opening the season way down in the top 25. As we know, rankings do mean little anyway so the fact that the Bulldogs are favored here is telling us something. Here we play on home favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg against a team allowing between 330 and 390 ypg, after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Aggies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 7-25 ATS in their last 32 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. 9* (386) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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10-03-14 | Louisville -1.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 55 h 27 m | Show |
Louisville is coming off a less than stellar effort last week against Wake Forest. Or was it? The Cardinal won by only 10 points and were actually trailing in the fourth quarter but a lot of that can be attributed to three lost fumbles, two short made field goals and two missed field goals. They did not allow an offensive touchdown as the only time Wake Forest got into the endzone was because of a fumble recovery. Louisville allowed only 10 first downs and 100 total yards of offense and overall it is ranked third in total defense (225.2 ypg) and ninth in scoring defense (14 ppg). I don't see that changing here against a Syracuse offense that is struggling to score. We were on the Orange last week and it was not a good call as they were able to keep it as close as they did thanks to a 5-1 edge in turnovers. Syracuse put up a decent 429 total yards but could muster only 15 points and six of those came on an interception return for a touchdown. It scored 40 points at Central Michigan but we can now call that an anomaly because the Orange have scored only 52 points in regulation in their other three games combined. Overall Syracuse is 48th in total offense but just 85th in scoring offense so there is definitely a disconnect somewhere and facing the toughest defense to date won't help matters. Louisville quarterback Will Gardner is questionable but that is not a concern at all. The Cardinals have a great situation on their side as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (309) Louisville Cardinals |
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10-02-14 | Arizona v. Oregon -23 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
At first glace, grabbing over three touchdowns with a 4-0 Arizona team seems like a good take but I don't think that will be nearly enough in this spot for the Wildcats. Arizona was off last week following its improbable comeback against California where it trailed by 18 points going into the fourth quarter and eventually won on a last second 47-yard touchdown pass. While it has had time to recover from that jubilation, it is coming into a tough environment for this Thursday night clash. The Wildcats won their lone road game but that came by only three points at Texas-San Antonio and this is a whole different animal. Oregon meanwhile is also coming off a bye following a closer than expected win at Washington St. two weeks ago as it won by just a touchdown as a 23-point chalk. Now the Ducks are back home where they have won 10 straight games and playing with a lot of added motivation. That comes from the 42-16 drubbing they took from Arizona is Tucson last season which closed the door on an outside shot at the National Championship. Now it is revenge time and Oregon will not let off the gas as it will want nothing more than to return the favor. The Ducks have numerous situations in their favor with the strongest being to play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Oregon is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games while Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg. 10* (308) Oregon Ducks |
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10-02-14 | Florida Atlantic -6.5 v. Florida International | 10-38 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 47 m | Show | |
This line has come down considerably and we are now on a number that is worth laying the road points. Florida Atlantic won last week against Texas-San Antonio to win its C-USA opener and while it is 0-3 on the road, this is the easiest test so far. The Owls nearly defeated Wyoming in its last road game and prior to that, they had to face Nebraska and Alabama in consecutive weeks so no doubt this team is prepared thanks to having played the 29th ranked schedule in the country. Conversely, the Golden Panthers have not played the same difficult slate as they have faced the 146th ranked schedule in the nation. Florida International has played the likes of Bethune-Cookman and Wagner out of the FCS and it actually lost the former. To their credit, the Golden Panthers are coming off an upset win last week at UAB as they won by 14 points as a 13.5-point underdog but it was not a dominating victory. They were outgained by 83 yards and it scored over half of its points off turnovers by the Blazers so they were more fortunate than good in that one. FIU finished with only 297 total yards and on the season it is ranked 119th in total offense despite playing the cupcake schedule. The Owls defense has struggled, but again, it comes down to the opposition played so they will have the significant edge here. Both teams are 4-1 against the number but the Owls come in on a 14-2 ATS tear on the road while the Golden Panthers are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in three straight games. Only one way to go here and this number should not even come into play. 9* (303) Florida Atlantic Owls |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -113 | 103 h 9 m | Show |
New Orleans picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Minnesota after dropping its first two games at Atlanta and at Cleveland. I typically like to go against the Saints on the road and even more so when they are road favorites as they have failed to cover six straight games in that role. The situation is different here though as New Orleans can ill afford to fall to 1-3 on the season and they are facing a team they should have no issues with. The Cowboys have won their last two games but they have been outgained by a combined 54 yards in those games so they have been far from dominating. They had to rally from a 21-0 deficit to beat the lowly Rams last week but going back to 2011, Dallas has lost five of its last six games following consecutive wins. The Cowboys will be out for revenge and while that is an angle we like to ride in certain situations, the 49-17 drubbing only shows the differences between the two teams. The Drew Brees-led offense put up 625 yards, the most the Cowboys allowed in a game just two weeks after they allowed 623 to the Detroit Lions. The defense is ranked 21st this season but this is by far its biggest test to date. The Cowboys 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record while the 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. They also fall into a solid situation where we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 133-80 ATS (62.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) New Orleans Saints |
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09-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -5 | 21-26 | Push | 0 | 99 h 15 m | Show | |
San Francisco came up small for us last week and like the Packers, many feel something is seriously wrong. I am not one of those however. The 49ers lost the turnover battle 4-0 against the Bears and rarely will a team win with that kind of deficit. Last week against the Cardinals, the defense broke down on back-to-back drives in the third quarter as 151 of the 338 total yards allowed came on those two possessions. Elite teams bounce back from that which is what we should see this week as San Francisco looks to win its first game at the new Levi's Stadium. The Eagles come in a perfect 3-0 on the season but in reality, it has been far from perfect. They had to rally from double-digit deficits in the first two games against the Jaguars and Colts and last week, it had to hold off a charge by the Redskins where they were outgained by 132 total yards. The offense has been putting up points but now Philadelphia faces its biggest challenge of the season. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 9-2 ATS when facing teams that are averaging 375 or more ypg on offense while also going 9-2 ATS against teams allowing 24 or more ppg on defense. San Francisco is off to a 1-2 start for second straight season and will look to avoid a three-game skid for first time since 2010. The 49ers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games off a loss as road favorite and even better, they are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games off loss as a favorite of any sort. The Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 9* (268) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-28-14 | Tennessee Titans +7.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an overreaction line from last week after Indianapolis crushed Jacksonville and Tennessee was crushed at Cincinnati. The Colts blowout of the Jaguars cannot be looked at into too much and even though we were on the wrong side of that, we have concluded that Jacksonville is clearly the worst team in football after thinking this team was on the rise. The titans loss against the Bengals was also a loss for us last week but we can't ignore the fact that that Tennessee outgained Cincinnati by 26 total yards but was hurt by penalties and turnovers. The Titans are a much better team than what the score indicated last week and this is a great bounceback spot. The Colts got their first win of the season last week and typically, teams that start 0-2 and win their third game fall flat on their faces in Game Four and that would be no surprise here. Tennessee falls into a great situation where we play on teams that are struggling on offense, averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams struggling on defense, allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Half of those games covered by more than a touchdown while 18 won the game outright. Additionally, Tennessee is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. The Titans are also playing with revenge as they have dropped five straight in this series straight up and against the number. With this being one of the biggest consensus plays of the NFL weekend, it only adds to the value. 9* (257) Tennessee Titans |
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09-28-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Houston Texans -3 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
We played against Houston last week as they lost to the Giants, suffering their first defeat of the season. We will be backing them this week as they head back home following a two-game roadtrip in what is a very good spot and a great line as well. Everyone is aware of the issues Houston had last season as it started off 2-0 only to lose its final 14 games and that troublesome season is still being attached to the Texans. We have to remember that nine of those losses were by one possession though. The defense is still the strength of this team and even though Houston is 25th in total defense, it is sixth in scoring defense and should have no issues here. The Bills opened the season 2-0 but put up a dud last week at home against San Diego. They hit the road for the second time and while the Bills won and covered in Chicago, they were outgained by 67 yards and going back, they are 4-12 in their last 16 games as road underdogs. Buffalo is just 23rd in the NFL in total offense and after putting up only 10 points last week, this is not the opponent it needs to be facing to try and get back on track. Buffalo is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after playing a game at home and even worse, it is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. Every one of those follow up losses came by double-digits and have been by an average of 24.4 ppg. While many consider both teams frauds at 2-1, the Bills are the actually fraud and we will see that here. 9* (256) Houston Texans |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
Green Bay was a big letdown for some last week as the offense could not do anything against a banged up Detroit secondary. The Packers are now 1-2 and have yet to cover a number this season so we are in good position in backing them here. Let's not forget Green Bay started both 2012 and 2013 1-2 and managed to even the record up in its fourth game and I am certainly expecting the same result here as they face an even worse defense. Of course the media is saying that the Packers are done based on the first three weeks of the season but this is the game they break out. We won with Chicago on Monday night and it was pretty fortunate to be honest as the Bears were outgained by 157 yards, the second straight game they were outyarded badly but managed to win. They benefitted from a turnover advantage but when you allow Geno Smith to throw for 316 yards, you know something isn't right. Overshadowed in the loss to the Lions was that the defense did a great job in holding Detroit to 353 total yards. The Packers defense is looking to hold the opposing quarterback to a passer rating below 65.0 for the third game in a row (NYJ-Geno Smith, 64.1 / DET-Matthew Stafford, 61.6). The Packers have won four straight games at Soldier Field and five of the last six at the stadium. Green Bay has held Chicago to 20 points or less in six of the last seven games at Soldier Field. Chicago is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games while going 5-22 ATS in its last 27 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers |
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09-27-14 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse +12 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -106 | 82 h 29 m | Show |
We played against Notre Dame and won when it could cover against Purdue and once again, it comes in with an inflated number. The Irish are off to a 3-0 start and have looked good in doing so but not as good as you may think. Wins over Rice and Purdue are far from good wins as both programs are rebuilding while Michigan is certainly not the same team we thought they would be sitting at 2-2 following an upset loss against Utah last week. Now the Irish hit the highway again for the second straight game on a neutral field and not to mention it has a revenge game at home against Stanford next week. Both the offense and defense have been solid but playing the easy schedule thus far has skewed those averages. The score shows a 14-point loss against Maryland last week but the game was a different story as Syracuse outgained the Terrapins by 220 total yards. The Orange were done in by two turnovers, one of which was an interception returned 88 yards for a touchdown as well as a 90-yard touchdown pass by Maryland in the first quarter. Plays like that cannot be allowed in order to win and Syracuse found that out the hard way. Now it goes down to New Jersey where its fan base travels very well in hopes of pulling off the upset. They have 15 starters back form last year's bowl winning season and after the near debacle against Villanova, the Orange have looked very good on both sides of the ball. Syracuse is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (166) Syracuse Orange |
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09-27-14 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -7 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 82 h 60 m | Show |
We lost a tough one last week in going against Duke and while the final score of 47-13 may not sound like that is the case, the game was not as bad as that outcome is. Tulane was outgained by only 46 total yards but five turnovers and 13 penalties killed the Green Wave and it was arguably the most deceiving final score of the weekend. 21 of Duke's points came off turnovers including two interception returns for scores. While the Blue Devils are 4-0, this is a team I am not sold on yet and a lot of that has to do with playing the 190th ranked schedule in the country. A road win at Troy has been the only highway trip and things will be a lot tougher here. Miami lost at Nebraska last week to fall to 2-2 with the other loss coming at Louisville so the Hurricanes have played in some tough venues. Now they are back home where they have won 10 of their last 11 games and are playing for some serious revenge following last year's 18-point beatdown in Durham. Miami is a different team now as it is a lot healthier than it was during that trip to Duke including having Duke Johnson back at running back. Look for him to have a monster game against the nation's 92nd ranked rushing defense which is actually worse than that based on the cupcake schedule. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is getting more comfortable and he is actually 30th in the nation in passing efficiency. Duke has won and covered six straight road games going back to the start of last season and because of the public love, we are catching a smaller than anticipated number which we take advantage of. 10* (180) Miami Hurricanes |
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09-27-14 | Boise State v. Air Force +13 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 81 h 28 m | Show |
Since opening the season with a loss against Mississippi, Boise St. has rolled to three straight wins and covers but let's face it, the opposition has been pretty bad. The Broncos had easy home wins over Colorado St. and UL-Lafayette but despite a 17-point win over Connecticut on the road, they outgained the Huskies by just two total yards. It comes as no secret that Boise St. is a better home team than road team and laying this type of number has been a problem as Boise St. is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when favored by double-digits against an opponent that is coming off a win. Air Force defeated Georgia St. two weeks ago and while that victory isn't saying much, a win is a win and playing with two weeks to prepare is even bigger. This is the first home game for Air Force since opening the season against Nicholls St. back in August so the Falcons were will extra pumped here against a quality foe. They are also playing with revenge following last season's 22-point loss at Boise and they bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS record coming off a bye week when getting fewer than 19 points. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 20 points while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (198) Air Force Falcons |
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09-27-14 | Stanford -7.5 v. Washington | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Stanford is off a bye last week which followed its easy win over Army at home the previous week. The Cardinal now hit the road for the first time this season and while that normally could be as cause for concern, the situation at hand totally negates that. Prior to Army, the Cardinal lost against USC and it can ill afford to start Pac 12 play at 0-2 especially with the challenges that lie ahead in the second half of the season. While we are not overly keen about laying more than a touchdown on the road, Stanford will show that it is far superior and expose the Huskies. Washington has not been very impressive this season as it opened with a one point win at Hawaii and then defeated Eastern Washington of the FCS by only seven points. The Huskies took care of Illinois by 25 points but last week fell behind against Georgia St. 14-0 before having to rally back for the win. They lost a ton from its offense last season and while the point totals have been big, this will be by far the best defense it has seen this season. Stanford is ranked first in the country in total defense and that is more impressive knowing it help the potent Trojans in check. Stanford knows the task here will not be easy as it defeated Washington by only three points last year and lost here in Seattle back in 2012 by four points. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 16 or fewer ppg against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (173) Stanford Cardinal |
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09-27-14 | Texas -13.5 v. Kansas | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 78 h 29 m | Show |
Texas is coming off a much needed bye week as after opening the season with a blowout win over North Texas, it has lost two straight games against BYU and UCLA. Those teams remain undefeated so while losses are bad, those aren't necessarily bad losses and the Longhorns take a big step down in class here. The Longhorns have back-to-back games against Baylor and Oklahoma immediately after this game and while that could normally trigger a lookahead, that won't happen here with Charlie Strong at the helm as his teams have gone 12-3 ATS in 15 games following a loss and the last thing they want is a three-game losing streak heading into the game against the Bears. Kansas is 2-1 for the second straight season but it went on to lose eight of its last nine games. The Jayhawks have defeated SE Missouri St. and Central Michigan, not exactly the best of opposition and they were both very unimpressive victories. Kansas has lost its Big 12 opener each of the last four years with three of the losses coming by 48, 40 and 38 points and a similar result here would not be surprising. The quarterback play has been atrocious from Montell Cozart sand now her will be facing a tough defense that has eight starters back from last season and is now healthy. On the other side, quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has directed the offense the last two games, completing 44 of 65 passes for 377 yards. His completion percentage (67.7) ranks No. 19 in the nation and he has committed just one turnover in his two starts. Texas has dominated this series as the Longhorns have won all 11 matchups in Big 12 play and have outscored Kansas by an average of 42.8-14.4 points per game in that stretch. 10* (175) Texas Longhorns |
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09-27-14 | Bowling Green -4.5 v. UMass | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 77 h 28 m | Show | |
Bowling Green was the victim of the molestation that Wisconsin put on it last week and if ever there was a time for a bounceback and against a certain opponent, this is it. The Flacons were outgained 756-261 as they simply could not match up at the line of scrimmage with the Badgers but things will be a lot different here. Wisconsin has an offensive line with the smallest player coming in at 313 pounds while Massachusetts has only one offensive linemen weighing over 300 points. The first two road games for Bowling Green have not been very good but that definitely changes. Massachusetts is 0-4 and after playing tight games against Colorado and Vanderbilt, it was blowout out last week at Penn St. by 41 points in a game that was decided by halftime and the Nittany Lions called off the dogs. The Minutemen have lost 10 straight games and going back further, they are 2-29 over their last 31 games with the wins coming against Miami Ohio last year which finished 0-12 and Akron in 2012 which finished 1-11. Additionally, they have won the yardage battle only twice in two years. Bowling Green was favored by 27 points at home last year against the Minutemen and not that much has changed between these two teams that should cause over a 17-point line swing from then until now. Here, we play on teams that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc against team allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 ypc after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 45-17 ATS (72.6 percent) since 1992. also, bowling Green is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. 9* (153) Bowling Green Falcons |
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09-27-14 | South Florida +34 v. Wisconsin | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 28 m | Show | |
Wisconsin put on a rushing display last week that was off the charts as it ran for 644 yards on 60 carries (10.7 ypc) and completely destroyed Bowling Green 68-17. The Badgers moved to 2-1 on the season and this is the final game before Big Ten play starts with a game at Northwestern next week. Big wins are great for teams as it can be a big motivating factor as well as boost confidence going forward but it can very work the opposite way as there is the possibility of being overconfident and for our purposes here, we are seeing a big inflation of this line based on last week. South Florida comes in off a hard fought win against Connecticut last Friday and while it may not seem overly impressive, we have to take note that the game was being played in absolute horrible rain. The Bulls are 2-2 on the season which includes a bad loss at NC State but also includes a close defeat at the hands of Maryland. Defensively, this team is very solid and it is especially strong against the run and they have the type of line that can hang with the Wisconsin offensive line in the trenches. South Florida is getting close to five touchdowns while getting only eight points less than what Western Illinois of the FCS was getting two games back against Wisconsin and stayed within the number. The Bulls have a solid situation on their side as we play on road teams after scoring and allowing 17 pts or less points against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 54-19 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (121) South Florida Bulls |
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09-27-14 | Tennessee +17 v. Georgia | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 27 m | Show | |
After losing to South Carolina two weeks ago, Georgia took out its frustrations on Troy last week as it won 66-0, outgaining the Trojans 547-216. The Bulldogs have a stiffer challenge this week however as they take on an improving Tennessee team. Georgia has been a very potent running team this year but Tennessee has held its own against the rush and while it won't shut Georgia down, I think the Volunteers will be jamming the box and forcing Hutson Mason to beat them which he may have trouble doing. While a lot games come down to which team can control the line of scrimmage, the big factor in this one is in the defensive backfields. Tennessee's secondary poses the biggest threat to Georgia's passing game so far. The Volunteers had yet to allow 200 yards passing until Oklahoma's Trevor Knight threw for 308 two Saturdays ago, but with two weeks to prepare, you have to think that this secondary will be ready. On the other side, Georgia's secondary looked good against Troy but did not look good against South Carolina when Dylan Thompson torched the Bulldogs over the middle of the field and finished with 271 yards and three touchdowns. Tennessee looks to bounce back off that loss to the Sooners and with an extra week of preparation, it is in good shape to keep this one close for a fourth straight season as the last three meetings have all been decided by just one possession. Tennessee is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 road games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread while Georgia is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games after a game where they committed no turnovers. 9* (177) Tennessee Volunteers |
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09-25-14 | Appalachian State +19 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Because of Appalachian St.'s loss to Southern Mississippi, we are getting some value with the Mountaineers. They rallied from a 14-0 deficit to nearly tie the game but missed the extra point because of a block in the final seconds to lose by one point. Appalachian St. actually outgained the Golden Eagles 455-329 but costly turnovers, three missed field goals sand penalties did it in. Five of eight drives that went into Southern Mississippi territory resulted in no points. Georgia Southern meanwhile is coming off a rout against South Alabama to square its record at 2-2. The Eagles have covered all four games and are now 8-0 against the spread since 2010 but are now favored against an FBS opponent by more than one point for the first time every and it is over two touchdowns no less. This team could be 4-0 overall as losses against NC State and Georgia Tech came by a combined five points so this is no doubt a very good team but the Eagles are in unchartered territory with this line and with it being a rival game that goes back to the SoCon days, it adds more for the underdog. While Georgia Southern gets the accolades for being a great rushing team, the Mountaineers are right there. Heading into conference play, Appalachian St. ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in rushing with 212.3 ypg. Since the beginning of the 2010 season, the Mountaineers are 20-2 when they run the ball 40 or more times and 11-19 when they run the ball less than 40 times. Look for a much closer than expected game. 10* (103) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 27-19 | Win | 102 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Typically, this could be a great situation going against the Bears after their come from behind win over the 49ers last Sunday night. However, I feel that they will use that as momentum going into this game Monday night and look to get over .500. Chicago lost on opening Sunday against the Bills and that is contributing with this play as an undefeated team coming in here would be a totally different situation. With a game against Green Bay next Sunday, the Bears could be staring at 1-3 should they walk out of here with a defeat. The Jets blew a 21-3 lead over Green Bay last week and that is a tough loss to recover from. They won their home opener against Oakland two weeks ago and while they outgained the Raiders by 244 total yards, it is hard not to overlook the fact they won by just five points. The Jets are playing the kind of football they prefer and that is winning at the line of scrimmage. They lead the NFL in rushing offense and rushing defense, becoming the first team since the 2007 Minnesota Vikings to lead those categories in the same week so let's face it, we are only through two weeks of the season. On the other side, the Bears have not taken control of the line of scrimmage as they are looking for a vertical game and with this matchup, they should have huge success. The Jets secondary was torched for 346 yards by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler can be just as dangerous with Brandon Marshall and Ashton Jeffery as his main targets. Not only is the Jets secondary battered up but they cannot matchup size wise. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Chicago Bears |
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09-21-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
This is a big game for San Francisco as it looks to avoid a 1-2 start. The 49ers started 1-2 last year and while they finished strong, four regular season losses were too much to avoid having all of their playoff games on the road. Falling to 1-2 again could conceivably put them in the same spot based on the strength of the upcoming schedule. Arizona is 2-0 to open the season but after watching the games, the Cardinals could easily be 0-2 or at the very least 1-1. the comeback against the Chargers was fortunate and last week, those same good fortunes came from the referees. This is the classic example of how turnovers can affect outcomes of games. For the 49ers, they were outgained by 63 total yards against the Cowboys but won comfortably thanks to a 4-0 turnover edge. Last week against the Bears, they outgained Chicago by 145 total yards yet lost no thanks to losing the turnover battle 4-0. As for Arizona, it was outgained by the Giants last week by 75 yards but won by 11 points thanks to a 4-0 edge in turnovers. While turnovers are nearly possible to predict, the fact that three of the four games involving these two teams have had turnover margins of +/-4 is rare. And as long as the 49ers are not on the wrong end like last week, they take this one comfortably. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 5-1 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and those five straight up wins have come by a combined score of 129-33. I certainly do not like laying points on the road but this is a sensational spot and San Francisco is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home as a favorite. 10* (471) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-21-14 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 7-33 | Loss | -121 | 77 h 57 m | Show | |
We played against Tennessee last week and won as it was a combination of the Titans going to Kansas City on opening week and shredding the Chiefs while the Cowboys were embarrassed as home against the 49ers. This week, we have a very similar scenario but now it is in favor of Tennessee which I feel is significantly undervalued here despite being ranked low in my power ratings. Those are based on raw numbers at this point in the season so they are skewed somewhat until we can get a better read and more data. Nonetheless, I am very high on this team as Tennessee has a chance to be a sleeper team in the AFC as it has a lot of talent and brings in a new head coach in Ken Whisenhunt. Six of the Titans nine losses last year were by one possession including three by a field goal or less. Quarterback Jake Locker has picked up the new system very well and after missing some time last season, he could be a big improvement this yea and so far he has been decent. The Bengals are 2-0 and now own a 10-game home winning streak during the regular season while covering all 10 of those games as well. Who do you think the public is on and how do the linesmakers adjust that? You are seeing it right here. All streaks come to an end and this is a great time for it to happen it what could be a lookahead for Cincinnati to its bye week next week. Despite being ranked eighth in total defense and scoring defense, the Titans were not happy with their defensive effort last week so expect a big effort this week and one that made big plays against the Chiefs two weeks ago. 9* (461) Tennessee Titans |
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09-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | 44-17 | Loss | -111 | 77 h 57 m | Show | |
The Jaguars return home for the first time this season after opening up on the road against two NFC East teams. Many thought that Jacksonville could come out strong after closing last season on a 4-4 run and after jumping ahead of the Eagles 17-0 at halftime on opening Sunday, things were possibly looking that way. But they crumbled and since then over the last six quarters, Jacksonville has been outscored 75-10 and has looked every bit as bad in doing so. But we are backing the Jaguars here for their home opener not only because of the contrarian aspect of the last two games and the hope opener aspect but because of the opposition. Indianapolis is a good team but it proved last week that it is not ready for the big stage as it fell to 0-2 in a game it should have won. While Andrew Luck is a great quarterback and will only get better, the Colts are not that great of a team, especially on defense, and they have no business laying this type of chalk on the road. Indianapolis ranked 30th in points allowed and 28th in total offense and while that has come against two high-powered offenses, Jacksonville has the ability to move the ball on Sunday. Home underdogs in the NFL have always been a great proposition and the Jaguars are 11-4 ATS coming off a 2-game roadtrip making the number that much more inviting. Jacksonville falls into a great situation based on public perception from last season as we play on underdogs or pickems that won only 25 percent to 40 percent of their games last season, in conference games. This situation is 35-10 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs playing a team off a loss as a favorite. 9* (468) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-21-14 | Houston Texans v. NY Giants +2.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 58 m | Show |
Rarely are there must win games this early in a season but this one qualifies for the Giants. They are 0-2 and it has been an ugly 0-2 as they were thumped in Detroit on Monday night and then were defeated at home against Arizona last week. People can talk as much as they want about how bad the offensive transition has been but it has gotten better as each quarter has progressed. Not many teams are going to avoid a 0-2 starts for the season when they are -6 in turnover margin and that is the case for New York. After starting last season 2-0, Houston went on to lose its final 14 games and here it is again with another 2-0 start. The Texans won't be going through another 14-game losing streak this year but I think they are being overvalued in this spot with their first two games coming against the Redskins and Raiders. Unlike the Giants, Houston has benefitted from a positive turnover margin as it is sitting at +5 through two games so the fact there is a turnover differential of 11 between these two teams explains the opposite records we are seeing. Then Texans have totally taken advantage of the turnover situation as they have been outgained in both games thus far despite double-digit winning margins in each. The Giants are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home and are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile Houston has not been good in these spots as it is 0-10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against NFC opponents with a .400 or worse winning percentage. New York faces three division opponents in the next four game after this making this an even bigger priority. 10* (458) New York Giants |
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09-21-14 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 77 h 48 m | Show | |
Washington burned us last week against Jacksonville and a big reason for that was the emergence of Kirk Cousins at quarterback for the Redskins. After RGIII left the game, Cousins came in and did a great job in leading the offense while the defense could do no wrong against the Jaguars. That victory snapped a nine-game losing streak for Washington and it could not have come at a better time prior to back-to-back divisional games followed by a visit from Seattle. The win did little to put faith in them according to the linesmakers which have made them hefty dogs in this divisional game. The Eagles were able to come from behind once again to pick up a victory to move to 2-0 and it was another impressive one. After coming back from a 17-point second half deficit against the Jaguars in Week One, Philadelphia came back from a 14-point second half deficit against the Colts on Monday night. Those two efforts were outstanding, with a little help from the refs in the second one, but that now puts the Eagles in a very tough spot because of the overadjusted line because of the two wins and the fact it is playing on a short week. Despite being 2-0, Philadelphia has held the lead in those games a total of six offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Washington's offense had gone nine games without scoring 30 or more points before last week and they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Additionally, Washington is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 divisional road games against winning teams. We play on home favorites with a scoring defense last season that allowed 24 or more ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (455) Washington Redskins |
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09-20-14 | Florida Atlantic v. Wyoming -4 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -106 | 91 h 46 m | Show |
After a 2-0 start, Wyoming ran into the buzzsaw of Oregon last week and fell to the Ducks by 34 points. In actuality, it was not that bad of a loss as the Cowboys were outgained by only 117 total yards and were down by only six points late in the second quarter before Oregon was able to pull away. Wyoming put up 439 total yards of offense against a very strong and underrated Ducks defense so they have to be happy coming back home following their best output of the season. This is a brand new system that new head coach Craig Bohl has brought in so it would take some time and is clicking around the right time. Florida Atlantic picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Tulsa in a surprising blowout. To their credit, the Owls opened the season with games against Nebraska and Alabama so getting blown out in those games was nothing to be ashamed of. I don't like the situation here though for them as they travel out west, furthest they have gone in a decade, with their conference opener taking place next week. They have been strong road underdogs the last couple years but they have been double-digit dogs in 14 of their last 17 road games so clearly this is a different scenario. Wyoming is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game and falls into an excellent situation where we play on teams (after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (342) Wyoming Cowboys |
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09-20-14 | Army v. Wake Forest +3 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 90 h 25 m | Show | |
We played against Army last Saturday as it was shutout against Stanford 35-0 and while it takes a step down in competition this week, there is no way this team should be laying points on the road. The Black Knights were outgained by 208 yards against the Cardinal which came after getting outgained by 88 yards against Buffalo at home despite holding on for the victory. This is the second of three straight road games for Army and it has not been a friendly place as it has not won a road game since 2010 as it has lost 16 straight game on the highway. Now the Black Knights are not only expected to break that streak but also cover as a short favorite. Wake Forest lost its final five games last season and things have not started great this year as it is 1-2 with the lone win coming against Gardner Webb of the FCS. However, it has played better than the stats show as it fell by a touchdown against Louisiana-Monroe which is going to contend in the Sun Belt Conference and then last week, lost by just 12 points at Utah St. By no means are the Demon Deacons going to make a run at the ACC title but this is the last winnable game for some time and it is homecoming on top of it. Army has gone six straight road games without a cover and going back it is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 9* (330) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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09-20-14 | Virginia v. BYU -14 | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 27 m | Show |
BYU is 3-0 for the first time since 2001 when it opened the season 12-0 and it has a chance to go deep again this year. The Cougars did not cover their last game but they have dominated all three games, winning the yardage battle by at least 158 total yards each time out. They have the benefit of a couple extra days off for this game and they have had this one circled as they went to Virginia in the season opener last season and lost by three points despite outgaining the Cavaliers by 139 total yards. Revenge will certainly be in play this week and while BYU has Utah St. on deck, it is not for another two weeks. Virginia has looked very good through three games as it narrowly lost to UCLA on opening weekend and followed that up with two wins including an upset of Louisville last week to open ACC play. Considering the Cavaliers won two games all of last season, it has already been a success but now Virginia hits the road for the first time this season. It has won only once in its last nine road games and going back, the Cavaliers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. We look for BYU to control the line of scrimmage here and have success running the ball which sets up solid situation as we play on home favorites that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (368) BYU Cougars |