Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship as Seattle and New Orleans have the inside track of grabbing the two bye spots for the playoffs. The Seahawks are in better position as even a loss here keeps them two games ahead of the 49ers in the NFC West while New Orleans is just a half-game up on Carolina in the NFC South. That makes this a bigger game for New Orleans but that is not something we will be taking into consideration here. The Saints are a powerful team no doubt but they are a different team on the road as they have struggled for the most part in all five road games this season. The Seahawks meanwhile have one of, if not the best, home field advantages in all of football and we are getting a very solid number here in my opinion. This line has dropped since opening and the big reason is due to the Seattle secondary missing Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner but it will be fine as the Saints best pass catchers are not even receivers. The defense excels inside as the Seahawks have allowed the fewest yards per play on screen passes in the NFL the last two seasons. The Seahawks have won 13 straight games at home dating to last season and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games following a win while going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a home win. Meanwhile, the Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. 10* (450) Seattle Seahawks
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12-01-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. San Diego Chargers | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. The Bengals are coming off a bye week and I think it came at a pretty good time. While they took care of Cleveland rather easily in their most recent game, Cincinnati was starting to leak some oil as it lost its previous two games before that and was involved in some close outcomes going back further. While the Bengals had won two straight on the road, they have lost their last two games on the highway. Even though both of those came in overtime meaning they could have been won, with the playoffs approaching, they need to take care of things on the road. San Diego is coming off that thrilling win last week in Kansas City to keep its playoff hopes alive and it was a much needed win as it snapped a three-game losing streak and got it back to a game under .500 overall. Even though the playoffs are still in the equation, I like playing against teams coming off a divisional win as an underdog as it can provide an immediate letdown. That is what I am expecting here. 9* (445) Cincinnati Bengals
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +6 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. We played against Kansas City last week and while the Chiefs put up a fight against the Chargers, the defense could not make the stops when needed. While Denver is obviously a lot better than San Diego, Kansas City goes from home favorite to home underdog and that is a spot I like to play because it is a big line swing in the span of just one week. The Broncos are coming off a devastating loss against the Patriots as they blew a 24-0 lead and eventually lost in overtime. That is a tough defeat to recover from. While I have been anti-Chiefs most of the season, I think they are getting a lot of value here and one of the big reasons is that they are getting close to the same amount of points at home than they did on the road just two weeks ago. Here we play on home underdogs or pick after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 92-48 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (428) Kansas City Chiefs
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -7.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. We won with both of those teams last week as the 49ers easily got past the Redskins on Monday night while the Rams blew out the Bears last Sunday. San Francisco snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory and served as a wakeup call. The 49ers now head back home to bounce back from their last home game, a loss against Carolina three weeks ago. This late in the season, San Francisco has to continue to keep winning to keep pace with the Seahawks in the NFC West. The Rams have been inconsistent this season but they are riding a two-game winning streaks with both victories being blowouts. Or were they? The scoreboard shows 30 and 21 points victories but St. Louis was outgained both times as it took advantage of turnovers and special teams edges. I do not expect those good fortunes to continue for a third straight game. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 15 or fewer points in their previous game and I expect that defensive prowess to continue again. 10* (442) San Francisco 49ers
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12-01-13 | Chicago Bears +1 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. After playing against the Bears last week, we will be backing them here this week. They were in a very tough spot last week coming off an overtime win at home over Baltimore the previous week and facing a Rams team coming off their bye week. While it is pretty early to call games must wins, this is about as close as you can get to a must win game at the three-quarter mark of the season. Chicago has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games as well so it has at least played well following a loss. Minnesota played Green Bay to a tie last week on the road but it felt like a loss as the Vikings blew a big lead in regulation. It has been a tough season for Minnesota which is 2-8-1 and even though this is a divisional rivalry game, I cannot see this team putting forth another strong effort in consecutive weeks as we have yet to see it this season. The Vikings are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a cover and even though we are not getting a number of points, I don't think we will even need them as a big Chicago victory is what I see taking place. 10* (433) Chicago Bears
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11-30-13 | Army v. Hawaii -6 | Top | 42-49 | Win | 100 | 35 h 20 m | Show |
This is the final chance for Hawaii to pick up a win this season and it looks to be the best chance it has had. The Warriors are 0-11 and the schedule has been extremely tough as all but three teams will be going to bowl games and two of those three teams can qualify for a bowl games with wins this weekend. Despite a 0-5 record at home, Hawaii has been very competitive as three of the five losses have been by a touchdown or less and all five games have been against teams with .500 or better records. That is not the case for Army as it is 3-7 and if the distraction of playing in Hawaii is not bad enough, its biggest game of the season is in two weeks against Navy. The Black Knights are coming off a double bye as well. Only two of the wins have come against FBS teams and while Hawaii has a worse record than both of those teams, it is still the better team. This is the first time Hawaii has been favored all season and while many will be going against that, the Warriors are favored for a reason. Additionally, Hawaii falls into a great situation where we play on home favorites that are allowing 440 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 390 and 440. This situation is 58-30 ATS (65.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, Army is 0-8 ATS in true road games over the last two seasons. 10* (424) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
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11-30-13 | San Diego State v. UNLV +3.5 | 19-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show | |
We won with UNLV last week as it blasted Air Force on the road and after three straight seasons with just two wins each, the Rebels are bowl eligible. It is the first time since 2000 that UNLV is bowl eligible and while the six wins is enough, they are going for a seventh to guarantee a bowl spot. If San Jose St. defeats Fresno St. and Wyoming wins at Utah St., there's a small chance a 6-6 UNLV team could be left out of a bowl game so they want to control their own destiny. This is the final home game for 18 seniors and their goal is to defeat the Aztecs as they are 0-3 against San Diego St. in their careers. After a horrible start to the season, the Aztecs have caught fire as they have won four straight games and seven of their last eight. The problem? Every one of those games could have gone the other way as all of the victories have been by seven points or less including three in overtime. San Diego St. in my opinion is getting too much credit and should not be favored in this spot. UNLV has a solid situation on its side as well as we play against road teams off a conference win as an underdog of six or more points against going up against an opponent off a conference win by 10 points or more. This situation is 34-7 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (406) UNLV Runnin' Rebels
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11-30-13 | Georgia v. Georgia Tech +4 | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Georgia came into the season with high expectations but an opening loss against Clemson pretty much set the tone for the rest of the season. The Bulldogs did rebound with four straight wins but then injuries started to take their toll and they went on a 2-3 slide. They did come back with a big victory last week against Kentucky in their final home game of the season but they paid a price as quarterback Aaron Murray was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Quarterback Hutson Mason will be making his first start and while his numbers are decent, 24-35 passing for 349 yards and two touchdowns, his playing time came almost exclusively in garbage-time situations. Georgia Tech has an identical record of 7-4 and after a midseason slide, the Yellow Jackets have won four of their last five games. Since winning in Georgia in 2008, Georgia Tech has dropped the last four meetings in this series so it will be out to end that streak and this looks to be the best opportunity it has had over this stretch. Here we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after failing to cover the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 65-26 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1992. 9* (382) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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11-30-13 | Alabama -10 v. Auburn | 28-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
This will be Alabama's biggest test of the season as Auburn has come out of nowhere and is currently sitting in fourth place in the BCS standings. The Tide being favored by this many points on the road is a head scratcher for many but they could be favored by even more in my opinion. This is the first time since 2010 since Cam Newton was here that the Tigers have had anything going for them heading into this game. While the Auburn offense has been very potent, it has overshadowed a defense that has struggled most of the season, allowing 406.9 ypg. Alabama is simply too physical for Auburn and it will be able to move up and down the field all day. The Tide's defense has also been overshadowed by its powerful offense but their stop unit is again extremely solid. They are ranked third in total defense and first in scoring defense and they will once again dominate here. Alabama falls into a great situation where we play on road favorites after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Alabama is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games after a win by 28 or more points. 9* (387) Alabama Crimson Tide
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11-30-13 | Tulane v. Rice -10 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
Rice nearly blew a chance to win the C-USA West Division as it went into UAB as a 17-point favorite and narrowly defeated the Blazers in overtime. Still, the Owls outgained UAB by 134 total yards so the game should not have been that close to begin with. Now with a win this Saturday, Rice would advance to its first appearance in the conference title game in its nine years as a member of C-USA. Undefeated at Rice Stadium this season, the Owls have won seven straight at home and has won five straight on Senior Day. Tulane has been the surprise of C-USA as it is 7-4 including a 5-2 mark in the conference. Before their 42-point win over UTEP in their last game, the Green Wave's first five wins against FBS foes were all by single digits and they were actually outgained in three of those. Additional, they were outgained in their win over Jackson St. of the FCS so while the winning is good, it has not been dominant and no doubt skewed. Give them credit for sure, but despite being three games over .500 on the season, they have been outgained by an average of 36.9 ypg. Tulane is 6-27 ATS in its last 33 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while Rice is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after playing their last game on the road. 10* (380) Rice Owls
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11-30-13 | Air Force v. Colorado State -15.5 | Top | 13-58 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
This is a big rivalry and Colorado St. will be supremely motivated for this one as the Rams look to bring the Ram-Falcon Trophy to Fort Collins for the first time since 2005. They have six wins but because they are playing 13 games this season, they need seven to become bowl eligible which would be the first time since 2008. Additionally, a victory Saturday would give the Rams their first winning regular season record since 2005. they will be tough to stop as Colorado St. is on pace for the second-highest yardage in program history with 447.2 ypg. The Rams have scored 50 points three times which is pretty impressive considering the last time they scored 50 points in any game was back in 2003. That is bad news for Air Force which comes in with a 2-9 record, including 0-4 on the road and is allowing an average of 477.6 ypg which is 111th in the nation. The Falcons have owned this series with seven straight wins, the final six all coming by double-digits sop it shows how far this program has fallen based on the line. Air Force is just 2-6 ATS this season when underdogs by less than three touchdowns. Adding even more motivation for the Rams is the fact they were shut out at Utah St. last week and the last time they were held to fewer than double-digits, they exploded for 59 points the next game. Air Force is 9-27 ATS in its last 36 games coming off a conference loss while the Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. 10* (396) Colorado St. Rams
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11-30-13 | Rutgers -2 v. Connecticut | Top | 17-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
It has been a rough ending to the season for Rutgers which is still trying to gain bowl eligibility. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of their last five games and outgained huge in the process but all four losses came against teams that have already qualified for the postseason. The schedule sets up well for Rutgers to get two wins prior to the bowl season and it should have issues doing so. A home game against South Florida is up next week. It has been a dreadful season for Connecticut but it is coming off its first win last week on the road at Temple. The game was tied late in the fourth quarter when the Huskies picked off a pass and ran it back 59 yards for a touchdown. That sets up a letdown position for this week and with another home game next week, there will be no end of the season motivation this Saturday. Connecticut is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win and Rutgers falls into a great situation where we play on road teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) since 1992. 10* (361) Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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11-29-13 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +8 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
We lost with San Jose St. last Friday as they went down in overtime against Navy. The Spartans outgained the Midshipmen by 124 total yards but losing the turnover battle 2-0 did them in, especially on their last drive in overtime. San Jose St. has now lost three straight games straight up and against the number but it remains in the hunt for a bowl game as one more win gets it bowl eligible. This is the final opportunity and while it won't be easy, an outright win is not out of the question. Fresno St. needs to win to keep its BCS hopes alive as it was jumped by Northern Illinois in the latest BCS standings. The Bulldogs are playing 11 games only because a game early in the season at Colorado was postponed and that one less game against a BCS conference team could definitely hurt them. While they have been blowing past most teams, they have struggled on the road a few times and the will be facing the toughest passing attack they have seen all season. The Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game while going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 as an underdog over the last three seasons. 9* (336) San Jose St. Spartans
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11-29-13 | Miami (Florida) -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Miami was finally able to snap its losing streak with a won over Virginia last week. The Hurricanes had dropped their previous three games so a win like that can provide a much needed boost heading into the end of the season. I think there is plenty of value with Miami as it has dropped six straight games against the number and that is a streak the public likes to ride, hence the sport price. Believe it or not, the Hurricanes are not out of the ACC Championship just yet. They obviously have to win and get some help along the way, but the motivation will be there. Pittsburgh became bowl eligible last week with a win at Syracuse but putting together winning streaks has been a problem of late as the Panthers are 0-3 straight up and against the number in their last three games following a win. The Panthers would like to win on Senior Day and have a chance at a better bowl game but this team is not nearly as talented and does not match up well. Miami falls into a great situation where we play on road favorites after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (337) Miami Hurricanes
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11-29-13 | Washington State +16.5 v. Washington | 17-27 | Win | 101 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Washington St. and Washington square off for the 106th meeting of the Apple Cup and this season is a bit difference than in most recent years as for the first time since 2002, the Huskies and Cougars each enter the Apple Cup with winning records. With both teams already bowl eligible, this is one that is more about bragging rights more than anything and I think this spread is way too high. Washington is coming off a blowout win at Oregon St. last week as it broke school records for points and total yards and that victory is inflating this line. Washington St. meanwhile has won two straight games to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2003 and a win here would help the Cougars possibly receive a bid to a conference-affiliated bowl, but if Washington St. is not invited to a bowl with a Pac 12 tie-in, they will have chances to play elsewhere. The Cougars have done this by playing the third toughest schedule in the nation as the combined record of the five teams they have lost to is 43-12, while four teams appear in the top-15 of the latest BCS standings. We have a great situation on our side as well as we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off an upset win as an underdog, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (339) Washington St. Cougars
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
A few weeks ago, this much anticipated game was starting to look like it was going to be a dud but now there is a lot on the line. Because of the severe dropoff between the AFC elite and second tier teams, the 5-6 record both teams possess have them right in the Wild Card hunt. Additionally, they are just game behind the Bengals in the AFC North. I however give Baltimore a significant edge here based on home field as not only is it at home, but it is the second straight home game while the Steelers are playing their second straight road game. After losing three straight games, the Ravens have won two of their last three games with the lone loss coming in overtime in Chicago. They are 4-1 at home this season and going back, the Ravens are 27-4 over their last 31 home games and while two of those have been within a span of just seven regular season games, they came against Denver and Green Bay with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers respectively behind center. After a 0-4 start, the Steelers have turned things around by going 5-2 over their last seven games including winning their last three games. Pittsburgh is just 2-4 away from home and while it defeated Baltimore in the first meeting this season, it has not swept the Ravens since 2008. The Ravens know they have to stack some wins in order to qualify for the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 48-22 ATS (68.6 percent since 1983. 10* (308) Baltimore Ravens
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11-28-13 | Texas Tech v. Texas -4 | Top | 16-41 | Win | 100 | 31 h 50 m | Show |
Following the Longhorns worst home loss in the Mack Brown Era, Texas looked to regroup during the bye week in preparation of a Thanksgiving Night showdown against the Red Raiders. Texas was riding a six-game winning streak prior to the loss and while most of those were against mediocre opposition, it is starting to look as through Texas Tech falls into that category. The Red Raiders blew through their first seven games but all of those wins came against teams that currently do not have a winning record. SMU is the only team that can get to a bowl game as it is sitting at 5-5. Texas Tech will move the ball and score, there is no doubt about that but Texas will play the ball control game as will have success in doing so. The Red Raiders have given up 277, 281, 291 and 340 rushing yards in their four losses to the Longhorns will be grinding it out all game and will be able to keep up. If it comes down to turnovers, that is a significant edge for Texas as the Red Raiders are minus-12 in turnover margin after giving the ball away 28 times throughout the season. The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss while the Longhorns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Also, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after failing to cover the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 65-26 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (310) Texas Longhorns
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
The Cowboys picked up a huge road win against the Giants on Sunday to maintain their tie with the Eagles in the NFC East. The last thing they want is to follow that up with a home loss on Thanksgiving and while they are clearly the better team in this matchup, the line is already taking that into effect. This is a rare occasion where Dallas had to play on the road prior to its Thanksgiving game but we saw a similar setup just two years ago when the Cowboys won a divisional game in Washington by a field goal and then came back home only to beat Miami by a point on Thanksgiving. This is one of the worst defenses they have put on the field in a while and that can keep Oakland hanging around within this big number. The Raiders lost a tough one at home against Tennessee to fall to 4-7 but because the 2nd Wild Card spot leaders are at 5-6, they are far from out of anything so this is a huge game for them as well. Expect a heavy dose of running as Dallas has allowed 169, 242 and 202 yards rushing in its last three games. The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a win while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Oakland Raiders
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11-28-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions -6 | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
Green Bay will be without Aaron Rodgers again this week but in the long run, it is definitely the best move as risking him to further injury could kill the rest of the season. The Packers have struggled without Rodgers and while they did make a great comeback last week against the Vikings, it resulted in a tie. More than likely, it will be Matt Flynn getting the start and if Flynn gets the start, he will be the Packers' fourth starting quarterback this season and the third since Rodgers broke his collarbone. Detroit has lost two straight games and despite going 2-3 over their last five games, they have outgained all five opponents as turnovers have been the difference including five last week against the Buccaneers. Playing on Thanksgiving obviously is a Detroit tradition but it has not been a kind day in recent years as the Lions have lost nine in a row on Thanksgiving. They lost in overtime against Houston last season and ironically, their last Thanksgiving win was in 2003 against the Packers. Green Bay and Detroit met back in Week Five in Green Bay and while the Packers prevailed 22-9 in that game, the Lions played without Calvin Johnson. Detroit has a revenge situation in its favor as we play favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a road loss against opponent and coming off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 54-22 ATS (71.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 home games revenging a same season loss and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games after a turnover margin of -4 or worse last game. Look for the Lions to break the Thanksgiving jinx and in a big way. 9* (304) Detroit Lions
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
A couple of struggling teams take the field tonight as San Francisco and Washington both look to end two-game slides. The 49ers were cruising along with five straight wins before losing to Carolina and New Orleans the last two weeks. The 49ers are beating the teams it needs to but is losing against the top teams as their four losses are against teams a combined 34-10 and the Redskins are not part of that group as they are 3-7 with a lot on the line tonight. Washington was in a similar situation last season when it was 3-7, won its final seven regular season games and made the playoffs. Whether or not a late push is in the cards again this season, the Redskins have confidence knowing this season is not over yet and that is a big deal. But they just are not playing well as two of their wins easily could have been losses and while the Monday night home underdog is always worth a look, it is just not the prudent play here. Here we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. San Francisco has been one of the top bounceback teams around, going 9-2 in their last 11 games following a defeat under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Also, San Francisco is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 375 or more ypg. 10* (233) San Francisco 49ers
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 78 h 34 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Patriots on Monday night with the whole penalty flag fiasco but New England still would have had to have scored on one play so it was no guaranteed win anyway. I believe the loss actually helps us here as the Patriots are one angry bunch right now and will be out for some retribution. Sitting at 7-3, they are now just two games in front in the AFC East so they need to avoid consecutive losses which is something they have done in the past as New England is 31-5 in its 35 games following a loss under Bill Belichick since 2003. The Broncos are coming off a big win last week against Kansas City at home to take over first place in the NFC West with a rematch looming next week. The public absolutely loves this team, even more than the Patriots now, and I think they are a false favorite in this spot. While Denver plays in cold weather late in the season, Peyton Manning is not a fan of bad conditions and the weather forecast calls for horrible winter conditions and that no doubt favors the home team. While Tom Brady lost as an underdog last week, he is 7-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog. 10* (232) New England Patriots
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 73 h 10 m | Show |
The Colts had a huge come-from behind victory last week against the Texans on the road and now they hit the road once again, this time off to the west coast. At 7-3, Indianapolis has a three-game lead in the AFC South and it is looking in pretty good shape to take the division as no other team is stepping up at this point. This game means little. The Colts are 3-0 in the division and 5-2 in the conference and those are the records they need to be concerned with and not an out of conference game. They are the lowest ranked division team in the AFC and I think it is for very good reason. Arizona is 6-4 and playing well with three straight wins. Going back, the Cardinals are 6-3 since an opening week loss and those three defeats came against the Saints, 49ers and Seahawks, all of which are ranked within the top six. Arizona has been outgained only three time this season and sitting in a tie for the second Wild Card in the NFC, it needs to continue to take care of business at home. This is a much bigger game for the Cardinals. Oh an did I mention that current head coach Bruce Arians coached the Colts last season? He will have a game play ready to get the job done. 10* (28) Arizona Cardinals
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11-24-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1 | 27-11 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
The Browns are coming off a loss last week against the Bengals but you can consider that a deceiving defeat. Cleveland outgained Cincinnati by 106 total yards but committed four turnovers, one that led directly to a touchdown while also allowing a blocked punt return for a touchdown. The Browns defense was playing on a short field all day while the offense went 0-3 in the redzone, settling for just two field goals. That misleading final score is going to keep the public away from the Browns and onto the Steelers as they are also coming off a misleading final. They defeated Detroit by 10 points despite getting outgained by 53 yards as turnovers were the difference there as well with Pittsburgh winning the turnover battle 3-0. Pittsburgh has won two straight games but both of those were at home and it brings in a 1-4 road record and even the one win was not a true road game as it came in London and the Steelers were the designated "road team" there. The offense remains stale while the Browns possess one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL, currently sitting at fifth overall. Cleveland has been a home underdog in this series for nine straight years and it is favored this year for a reason. 9* (220) Cleveland Browns
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11-24-13 | Chicago Bears v. St. Louis Rams | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
The Bears were fortunate the weather turned last week as the Ravens were in control of the game until a delay took the momentum out and Chicago was able to get back into the game, which it eventually won in overtime. After opening the season 3-0, the Bears are just 3-4 and have gone 0-3 following their last three victories. Some people will argue that Josh McCown is an upgrade from Jay Cutler, me being one of those, but this comes down to the Bears dreadful defense which is 24th in the NFL including 31st against the run and that is where the Rams can take advantage. St. Louis had dropped three straight games before going to Indianapolis and destroying the Colts two weeks ago prior to its bye last week. You can argue that the bye came at the wrong time, killing momentum, but I'm not sold on that. The Rams are 2-3 at home with a loss to Tennessee that could have been a win and a loss against 10-1 Seattle by just five points so playing in the dome is a big edge here. They fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 40-13 ATS (75.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (222) St. Louis Rams
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11-24-13 | San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 70 h 2 m | Show | |
The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season last week in Denver and it was a long time coming. I have said for a while that Kansas City is overrated and I still think it is yet because of the 9-1 record, the lines have to be inflated and that is the case here. The Chiefs could not be in a worse situation as coming off that first loss of the season is always tough and they have to face Denver again next week so the focus could already be on that rematch. The Chargers are 4-6 on the season after suffering their third straight loss at Miami last week. The thing is, while the Chiefs are overrated, the Chargers are underrated as five of those six losses could have been wins. San Diego has been outgained only twice in its last seven games and it is one of only two losing teams in the NFL that actually have a positive point differential so that tells you how much better they are than their record indicates. Conversely the Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last nine games and on the season, they are getting outgained by an average of 16.9 ppg. A 9-1 team that is getting outgained? That is all we need to say right there. The Chargers slim playoff hopes can stay alive with a win here. 9* (215) San Diego Chargers
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11-24-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans -10 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -103 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
Everyone is down on the Texans right now as rightfully so. They are the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season as sitting at 2-8, their season is done. The question is have they quit? The simple answer is no. While they have lost eight out of ten games, they have outgained the opposition in eight out of ten games as well which shows they are performing well everywhere except for the scoreboard. Now, the scoreboard is the biggest factor obviously but cut down on turnovers and things will be different and that is what I expect here as Jacksonville has only 12 takeaways the entire season. The Jaguars have been playing well since returning from England by going 1-1 but that is an illusion. They have been outgained by 148 and 142 yards in those two games and on the season, they have won the yardage battle only once and that came by 12 yards in St. Louis. When looking at the combined total yardage differentials, the Jaguars are -113.6 ypg while Houston is +91.9 ypg and that is an enormous variance. The Texans need to take their frustrations out on someone and this looks to be the perfect spot with New England on deck. 10* (212) Houston Texans
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11-23-13 | Boise State v. San Diego State +7 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 26 m | Show | |
This is not the same Boise St. team we have grown accustomed to but we are still seeing lines we are accustomed to. The Broncos come in as road favorites and while power rankings dictate that, I still think this team is overrated based on name. Boise St. has destroyed its opponents at home which is no big surprise but it has not been nearly as good on the road where it is 2-3. One win came against Utah St. which happened to be the first games that Chuckie Keeton did not start for the Aggies and the other was against Colorado St. despite getting outgained by 189 total yards. After starting the season 0-3, San Diego St. is playing like many expected it would as it has won six of its last seven games with the only blemish coming in overtime against undefeated Fresno St. The wins have not been dominant but they have outgained six of those seven opponents, including Fresno St. by 166 yards, so the Aztecs have done what they needed to do to turn their season around. This is the final home game of the season and with a game at UNLV next week, finishing with eight wins is not out of the question. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while San Diego St. is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win. 9* (208) San Diego St. Aztecs
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11-23-13 | USC v. Colorado +23 | 47-29 | Win | 100 | 79 h 27 m | Show | |
Colorado brought us home a winner last week as the Buffaloes easily took care of California which snapped their three-game losing streak. Colorado is still in the hunt for a possible bowl bid as it needs to win its next two games and then hope they can find a spot. That motivation is pretty important right now as this game may seem unwinnable to some but the situation could not be set up any better. Is it probable that the Buffaloes can win this game? Unlikely. However, I think they keep this one much closer than what this line may be telling us. The Trojans have been playing exceptional ever since Lane Kiffin was fired and Ed Orgeron took over as the interim head coach. USC has won four straight games including an upset at home last over then fourth ranked Stanford. That puts the Trojans in letdown mode and adding to that even more, they have their final home games of the season next Saturday against bitter rival UCLA. The media is once again talking the Trojans up and admittedly, they have been playing very well but this is still a team with a lot of issues on the offensive end. The public is taking it all in as well as USC was favored by 18.5 points in its last road game at 1-10 California and now it is favored by more points against a better team that just won against the Bears. That doesn't fit and we will jump on the inflated home underdog here. 9* (168) Colorado Buffaloes
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11-23-13 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +10 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 78 h 58 m | Show | |
It is no secret that Baylor has one of the most explosive offenses college football has ever seen and it has taken the Bears into fourth place in the latest BCS standings. They are now 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS so it comes as no surprise that they are heavy road favorites but I feel it is way too much here. Taking nothing away from what it has accomplished but the Baylor schedule has been in its favor the entire season. The Bears have played only two true road games this season, one at 6-4 Kansas St. which was their only ATS loss and the other coming at 3-7 Kansas. This presents their biggest challenge of the season. Oklahoma St. has been very dominant as well as the Cowboys are 9-1 including wins in six straight games and covers in five straight contests. Three of their last four games have come on the road and while this will be the biggest home test of the season, this is one difficult place for opponents to play, especially at night as fans are right on top of the players. While this is arguably the best Baylor team ever, the Bears have not won in Stillwater in 74 years and asking them to win by double-digits may be too much. The Cowboys have covered nine of their last 10 games at home and are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a road game. 9* (184) Oklahoma St. Cowboys
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11-23-13 | Tulsa v. Louisiana Tech +3.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 57 m | Show | |
How can Louisiana Tech be a home underdog here? It has been a rough season for the Bulldogs as they are 4-6 and while winning out and getting to 6-6 with get them bowl eligible ,remember they went 9-3 last season and were overlooked. There may be some payback from the bowl committees in their favor this season so winning out is the goal at this point. Louisiana Tech has not defeated anyone noteworthy which does not help the chances but Tulsa is certainly part of that non-noteworthy group. The Golden Hurricane are having a miserable season at 2-8 and with nothing to play for, they came out of the gates slow last week against Marshall and were about to fall behind 28-0 before a turnover changed the course of the game and they actually took a fourth quarter lead. Tulsa gave it right back and ended up losing by 11 points and that type of loss is close to impossible to recover from, especially for a team that now certainly has nothing to play for here. They have lost four straight and seven of their last eight games but still come in as a road chalk which makes them a false favorite in my book. Louisiana Tech is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams with a losing record while Tulsa is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games after getting outgained by 125 or more yards in two straight games. 9* (200) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
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11-23-13 | Missouri v. Ole Miss +3 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 43 m | Show | |
Mississippi came into the season with a lot of hype thanks to a very strong recruiting class and after a 3-0 start, things were looking very positive. Then the wheels fell off with three straight losses but those did come against Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M, the first two coming on the road and the second two coming by just 11 combined points. Since then, the Rebels have won four straight games and in a very fortunate scheduling fate, this is the sixth straight home game as they have not hit the highway since the first week of October. Now they welcome in yet another SEC power but they match up well here and could use one more quality win following their rise into the top 25 of the BCS standings. This is also the final home game of the season. Missouri's championship hopes were dashed at home against South Carolina in overtime but the Tigers have bounced back very well with two blowout wins. They are a perfect 4-0 on the road, both straight up and against the number, but this will be the biggest road test by far. Mississippi is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after playing a game at home and is a perfect 2-0 ATS in the role of home underdog this season. Look for that to remain perfect with an outright win. 9* (204) Mississippi Rebels
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11-23-13 | Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -2.5 | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 58 m | Show | |
Tennessee was expected to turn the corner this season under head coach Butch Jones but that has not been the case. The Volunteers started off fine but have since lost three straight games, all in blowout fashion, to fall to 4-6 overall. To their credit, the last three losses have come against Alabama, Missouri and Auburn, the three top teams in the SEC so they finally take a step down in class this week. Tennessee has also had a chance to get refocused as it had a bye week following the Auburn loss and a win here along with a victory next week gets it bowl eligible. Vanderbilt already has become bowl eligible with its win over Kentucky last week and will be playing in its third straight postseason game. Three of their six wins have come against teams with two wins or fewer, another against Austin Peay of the FCS and while wins against Florida and Georgia look good on paper, they are not overly impressive. Florida is in a funk and Georgia was riddled with injuries. Tennessee used to own this rivalry and while it still has dominated it overall, the Commodores won last year at home by 23 points, the first home win over Tennessee since 1982, so the Volunteers will also be out for some payback. They get one step closer here. 9* (152) Tennessee Volunteers
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11-23-13 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -5 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 59 m | Show |
We have played on Wyoming a couple times this year and while the starts were good, the Cowboys folded late. After a great start to the season, they have lost four straight games but now it is gut check time. At 4-6, the possibility of a bowl game is still there but Wyoming has to win its final two games. The last four losses have come against teams that are all .500 or better and now the Cowboys welcome 0-10 Hawaii and there is no reason they should not be able to name the score here. The Warriors are not only winless but are coming off a devastating overtime loss at home against San Diego St. as they blew three different touchdown leads throughout the game. They have been competitive at home pretty much all season but on the road, they have been outscored by an average of close to 20 ppg. The defense is atrocious and I do not see them putting up much of a fight here. This is the final home game of the season for the Cowboys as well while playing in 31 degree weather will only add to the home field edge. The Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record while the Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. 10* (158) Wyoming Cowboys
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11-23-13 | UMass v. Central Michigan -10 | Top | 0-37 | Win | 100 | 71 h 60 m | Show |
We won with Central Michigan last week and we will ride the Chippewas again this week as they continue their push to become bowl eligible. They defeated Western Michigan by five points but the game was and should not have been that close as Central Michigan lost the turnover battle 5-1 which definitely skewed the outcome. The Chippewas need to win their final two games of the season to reach six wins and while it may not be enough to get to a bowl, the chance is still there. Massachusetts has no doubt had a rough season as it is 1-9 following a close loss against Akron last week. That was the third straight home game ,and final home game of the season, for the Minutemen so they hit the road for the first time in over a month. The lone win this season came against 0-11 Miami and that came by just a touchdown at home. They have been outgained in every other game this season and overall are getting outgained by an average of 152.4 ypg. Central Michigan has played five of its last six games on the road so the fact it has hung around is impressive. The only two home games against FBS teams this year were against Northern Illinois and Toledo and we know how they have been. The Chippewas roll. 10* (154) Central Michigan Chippewas
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11-23-13 | Duke v. Wake Forest +6 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 1 m | Show |
Duke is coming off a monster win on Saturday as it upset Miami to move to 8-2 overall and 4-2 in the ACC. The Blue Devils control their own destiny in the Costal Division but it has been mostly a case of no team wanting to take control. Duke is certainly the biggest surprise of the ACC at this point but despite six straight wins overall, it has been outgained in each of the last three and after the last two taking place at home, the Blue Devils close the season with two straight road games. After suffering a devastating home loss against Miami in the final seconds, Wake Forest has gone from 4-3 to 4-6 after backing that up with two additional losses. The Demon Deacons got shut out in Syracuse and then got hammered at home against Florida St. The good news is that they had a bye week after the loss to the Seminoles to regroup and make a bowl push. They can become bowl eligible by winning out so that is a big motivator right there along with the fact this is the final home game of the season. Those two factors are enormous. Duke is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game while the Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. 10* (140) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
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11-22-13 | Navy v. San Jose State -2 | Top | 58-52 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
There is a common theme the last few weeks of the college football season and that is motivation. Here we have another example of a team striving for bowl eligibility and that is San Jose St. as at 5-5, it needs one more victory to become bowl eligible. The Spartans have dropped two straight games after winning four in a row and with games running out, this is the time. Making it even more of a big game is the fact that San Jose St. closes the season against undefeated Fresno St. so a loss here could certainly shut them out. Navy meanwhile has already gotten bowl eligible as it won last week against South Alabama to make it to six wins. The Midshipmen opened the season with a big upset win on the road at Indiana but since then, the home team has ruled the rest of the season, going a perfect 9-0 in Navy games. Navy is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg over the last three seasons while going 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after a win by 17 or more points. The Spartans meanwhile are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (116) San Jose St. Spartans
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11-21-13 | UNLV +3 v. Air Force | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
As mentioned last week in some game-analysis, this time of year is about motivation as teams still have some things to be playing for, namely a chance to make it to a bowl game. One of those teams is UNLV which has not gone bowling since 2000 and after three straight years of winning just two games, the Rebels can match that combined win total with a victory here. At 5-5, the Rebels still have one more game reaming and even though it is at home, it is against 6-4 San Diego St. so this matchup certainly is better to come out on top. This has been a dreadful season for Air Force which will encounter its first losing regular season since 2006. This is the last home game of the season for the Falcons which can often get a team to try and win for the seniors but here it will not come into play as sometimes it is simply too late. The home field edge for Air Force is non-existent as it is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games here. UNLV used to be a no bet on the road but at 2-2, it knows how to win on the highway and coupled with a big motivational edge, the Rebels will stamp their postseason ticket on Thursday. 10* (113) UNLV Runnin' Rebels
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
It comes as no surprise that the public is betting the Saints hard despite being now favored by double-digits in some spots. New Orleans has won two straight games since losing in New York to the Jets and has a one game lead in the NFC South. Coming into the season, the obvious choice would have been Atlanta that was a game back but it has been a disaster of a season, thus the big number the Falcons are getting tonight. They have dropped four straight games while not covering any of those but three of those were on the road where they are 0-5 on the season. A 2-3 record at home is nothing to be proud of and while many believe Atlanta has given up, tonight is its Super Bowl as playing spoiler against hated New Orleans is the goal. With the playoffs no longer a possibility, playing the Falcons can only be done in certain situations and this is one of those as the Georgia Dome will be rocking. The Saints are coming off that emotional home win over the 49ers and now travel on a short week with a game at Seattle next Monday night so the situation is just as bad on their side. The Falcons fall into a great situation where we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 75-39 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (108) Atlanta Falcons
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Despite the fact that close to 80 percent of the betting action in on Northern Illinois, the line has come down. Some call this a trap line but it is simply a reverse line movement and those are the moves we like to back. Obviously there is a lot at stake for Northern Illinois as a victory here sews up the MAC West which would send it to the MAC Championship and give the Huskies another shot at a quality win in trying to surpass Fresno St. in the BCS standings. This team is solid and has won 23 straight games in the MAC but this could finally be the one that does them in. Toledo jumped out to a 38-0 lead over Buffalo last week and while the final score was a lot closer than that, the Rockets took the foot off the pedal. There is a lot at stake also for Toledo as it can win the MAC West with a victory here and one next week against Akron while the Huskies would have to beat Western Michigan. It has just been announced that running back David Fluellen has been upgraded to probable and the one-two punch of him and Kareem Hunt, who has rushed for 100 yards in four straight games, will be tough to stop. Toledo is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 home games after allowing 37 or more points last game. 10* (106) Toledo Rockets
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11-19-13 | Kent State v. Ohio -5.5 | Top | 44-13 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Ohio has been punched in the mouth the last two weeks, both on national television, so the Bobcats will be ready to take their frustrations out on an inferior Kent St. team. The Bobcats were outscored by a combined score of 79-3 against Buffalo and Bowling Green which combined are 14-6 including 10-2 in the conference so they take a big step down in class here. The Golden Flashes are 3-8 so there is no chance of postseason and they are coming off a win against 0-10 Miami-Ohio which halted a five-game losing streak. The only other victory against an FBS opponent was against Western Michigan which is currently 1-10 on the season. It is pretty clear that Kent St. has struggled against the better teams in the MAC and now it faces an angry Ohio team coming off consecutive losses and laying with revenge following a 28-6 loss last year to end the regular season. The Bobcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and I expect a big win from them on Tuesday night. 10* (104) Ohio Bobcats
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Panthers pulled off a stunner last week when they went into San Francisco and defeated the 49ers which had won five in a row but are now clearly struggling. Carolina is now 6-3 and trails the Saints by a game and a half in the NFC South after winning and covering five straight games. With the exception of San Francisco, the wins have come against teams that are not going to make the playoffs and overall, the Panthers have played the 22nd ranked schedule in the NFL and this is where they get tripped up. The Patriots have won two straight games and this is just the second time they have been underdogs this season. With Tom Brady looking to be finally on track and as an underdog coming off a bye week, this is a great spot for New England to move in front in the AFC East by three games. He was 23-of-33 for 432 yards and four touchdowns against the Steelers and when starting, he is 17-7 ATS in the role of underdog. Additionally, the Patriots are 8-1 when he starts coming off a bye week while going 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday games. 10* (429) New England Patriots
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
I bet against Denver twice in their last five games and we cashed in those games against Dallas and Indianapolis. I have yet to back the Broncos as even though they have been covering at a good clip, they have been overinflated. We will not be backing them in what I feel is a great price against a very overrated Kansas City team. Denver would essentially take over first place with a win and it knows that it heads to Kansas City in two weeks for a rematch. The Chiefs come in off their bye week which can be considered good or bad. They got to rest and get a little healthier which is a good thing but when you are riding a nine-game winning streak, the last thing you want to do is take a week off an kill all of that momentum but that is precisely what happened to Kansas City. The defense has led the way but there is no chance of stopping this Broncos defense at home after coming off its lowest offensive output of the season against the Chargers. Kansas City is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams averaging 260 or more passing ypg while the Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games against teams allowing 14 or fewer ppg. 10* (422) Denver Broncos
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
The 49ers burned us last week as they ended up losing at home 10-9 after jumping ahead of Carolina 9-0. Now they head to New Orleans where the Saints have looked unbeatable in what can be considered a must win game to avoid falling behind Seattle by three games in the NFC West. San Francisco had its five game winning streak snapped by the Panthers but they have been very solid coming off a loss, going 9-1 in their last 109 games following a defeat including a 3-0 record on the road and winning by a combined score of 82-19. That basically says a lot about head coach Jim Harbaugh. WE all know the Saints incredible spread records at home but this is a team than can give them big trouble as the 49ers possess a defense that can slow them down and on offense, it has a running game that can keep the Saints off the field. While the New Orleans defense is supposedly improved, they are still allowing 5.0 ypc which is dead last in the NFL. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or higher so they know what it takes beating the elite. 10* (425) San Francisco 49ers
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11-17-13 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 74 h 44 m | Show |
Buffalo lost for the third straight game last week as the Steelers shut the offense down once again. The Bills were in a very tough spot though as they went to New Orleans where few teams come out win a win and quarterback Thad Lewis got banged up. He missed the next week so Jeff Tuel got the start but then at Pittsburgh, it was E.J. Manual making the start after being off for six weeks. Three different quarterback s in three weeks does no good for any team but with Manual under center again this week, I think we see a drastic improvement from the offense. The Jets were fresh off a home upset of New Orleans and then their bye week came which I've stated before, can be good or can be bad. I don't think it matters much here but the Jets taking to the road does as they are just 1-3 on the highway and even in the game they won they were outgained. As absurd as it may sound, a Buffalo win puts it just a game and a half back in the Wild Card race and at this points, a .500 record could bring home that second Wild Card spot. The Bills still have plenty to play for as they are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a road loss. 10* (406) Buffalo Bills
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11-16-13 | Houston +16 v. Louisville | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 13 m | Show |
After losing last week at Central Florida, the task doesn't get much easier this week for Houston as it travels to Louisville for a big AAC showdown. The Cougars two losses this season have come by a combined six points and it has the offense to keep up here. Despite just 14 points, the Cougars did put up 367 yards against the Knights and overall they are now 26th in the nation in total offense. After losing to Central Florida, Louisville has bounced back with two straight wins but defeating South Florida and Connecticut, a combined 2-14, is nothing to get excited about. The Cardinals return home which is a big advantage for sure but this line is simply too much. Houston is playing in its second straight road game but with a lot on the line, I expect another great effort this week in Louisville. 10* (323) Houston Cougars
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11-16-13 | California v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
The Buffaloes return home following two straight blowout losses on the road and while it may not seem feasible, they are still in contention for a bowl game. Playing USC at home and at Utah after this, it isn't likely but the possibility is still there and that is where motivation comes into play this time of year. Colorado is 0-5 against teams ranked in the top 30 but 3-1 against everyone else and California certainly falls into that 'everyone else' category. The Golden Bears have yet to defeat an FCS opponent this season as their lone victory came against Portland St. and even that victory was ugly. California has lost eight straight games and only one of those was competitive, a five-point home loss against Arizona two weeks ago. At 1-9, the season thankfully coming to an end but California still has one thing to look forward to and that is its annual showdown with Stanford in "The Big Game" next week. Although it may not be looking forward to that beatdown either. Look for Colorado to keep its slim postseason hopes alive here. 10* (358) Colorado Buffaloes
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11-16-13 | Georgia +4.5 v. Auburn | Top | 38-43 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 40 m | Show |
Auburn is rolling right now and not many people saw this one coming after a dreadful 3-9 season last year. Head coach Gus Malzahn has been able to push the right buttons as the tigers have won six straight games while covering eight in a row. The running game has been steamrolling opponents but now they face a team that can actually stop the run. Auburn has yet to face a defense that is ranked in the top 50 in ypc average while Georgia comes in 20th. The Bulldogs were BCS contenders at one tine but the injury bug did them in once again. They are as healthy as they have been all year and after what was essentially a bye last week against Appalachian St., Georgia comes into this one rested and ready to show that winning the SEC East is still not out of the question. Bettors are lining up behind Auburn in droves as they are riding that ATS winning streak and are hearing all of the talk about Alabama vs. Auburn coming up in two weeks. The Bulldogs will have something to say about that. 10* (365) Georgia Bulldogs
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11-16-13 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +7 | Top | 41-28 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
While Michigan St. has won five straight games since losing to Notre Dame and controls its own destiny in the Legends Division, Nebraska will have something to say about that. The Huskers were ranked when they went to Minnesota three weeks ago but lost to the red hot Gophers. They have since won their last two games and while those wins were not very pretty, I am expecting a similar game here and ugly games tend to favor the underdogs, especially the ones at home. A win over Michigan two weeks ago was a good one for the Spartans but other than that, they have defeated no one of significance. Having the week off also hurts as the bye came at a time when momentum was at its best and now it is gone. A win here for Nebraska puts the division it its own hands with games against Penn St. and Iowa on deck. A loss knocks them out of the race but even a loss may not hurt as this line is inflated in my opinion and as mentioned, an ugly, defensive battle favors the home underdog in a big way. The upset would not be a surprise at all though. 10* (376) Nebraska Cornhuskers
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11-16-13 | North Carolina State v. Boston College -7 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show | |
As expected, Boston College struggled last week. The Eagles were coming off a huge home win against Virginia Tech two weeks ago and last week, has to travel to 1-9 New Mexico St. for a meaningless nonconference game and it showed as Boston College came out slow and did not pull away until the last five minutes of the fourth quarter. Now the Eagles are back in Chestnut Hill for their final home game of the season with a change to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. We will see a lot more energy this week for sure. NC State opened the season at 3-1 but has since lost its last five games and while still bowl eligible, the Wolfpack are likely done. They enjoy two home games to close the season but they are 0-3 on the road with all of those losses coming by double-digits. The home team has won and covered four straight in this series and with everything in favor of Boston College here, that streak continues. 9* (330) Boston College Eagles
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11-16-13 | Central Michigan -2 v. Western Michigan | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 58 m | Show | |
Central Michigan may not be on many people's radar but that could change after this week. Motivation plays an enormous this late in the season as some teams are still playing for something while others are playing for the season to just come to an end. The Chippewas are 3-6 and remain alive for a possible bowl bid and with the final two games against UMass and Eastern Michigan at home, a 6-6 record is very possible. They will be plenty motivated as well as playing with double revenge. Western Michigan however is just playing out the string as at 1-9, the Broncos are going nowhere. The lone victory came against 1-8 UMass and that was by just one point while an overtime loss at Eastern Michigan last week put them even further in the dumps. Sure this is a rivalry but Western Michigan will not be able to match the intensity in this one. 9* (325) Central Michigan Chippewas
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11-16-13 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -24 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
We played against Oklahoma last Thursday and after playing Baylor tough for a while, the Sooners folded and ended up losing big. While Oklahoma was made to look pretty pedestrian by the Bears, I think the Sooners are better than what we saw and the Bears are just that good. Now Oklahoma gets a big matchup in its favor and while it is laying a big number, this game potentially has the makings of its largest win of the season. The Sooners first and foremost want to make up for last week's poor effort and it has had some extra time to do so. This is the last home game for Oklahoma as it finishes the season at Kansas St. and at Oklahoma St. for Bedlam. Iowa St. put forth a great effort against TCU at home last week but gave up the game winning touchdown with 38 seconds remaining in the game. That tough loss will carry forward and the Cyclones also bring in a six-game losing streak which has put them at 1-9 on the season which is certainly disappointing following two straight bowl appearances. The blowout awaits. 9* (370) Oklahoma Sooners
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11-15-13 | Washington +3 v. UCLA | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 59 m | Show |
Unfortunately, we lost against UCLA last week but we will be going against them again here in what is a very suspicious line. The Bruins opened as slight favorites at Arizona last week before falling into place as small underdog and now they return home as small favorites which will have many scratching their heads. UCLA is ranked 13th while Washington is unranked and that is exactly why we throw ranking right out the door as they are the most meaningless stat there is in college football. Based on this line, Washington is a better team as it would be favored by a slight amount on a neutral field and that is the case at most every legitimate power ranking you look at. According to Jeff Sagarin, the Huskies are 10th in the nation. They are coming off consecutive wins which came after three straight losses. Washington fought hard and should have won at Stanford and the next week they were outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter against Oregon and that carries over into a loss at Arizona St. The Huskies have not won here since 1995 so you know there will be plenty of motivation following one of their most complete games of the season against Colorado last week. The Bruins have blown through their competition at home as they are 4-0 but those wins have come against teams that combined are just 8-31. Washington falls into a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .800. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (315) Washington Huskies
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11-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 25 m | Show |
This is going to be a very popular play public wise and while laying road chalk in the NFL is a rare occurrence on this end, this is a great spot for it to come through here. The Colts were absolutely embarrassed at home this past Sunday as they got waxed by the Rams 38-8. Indianapolis lost the turnover battle 5-1 while allowing a long punt return for a touchdown and it is near impossible to compete when that takes place. The Colts actually outgained St. Louis by 34 total yards but that is meaningless to them when they are on the short end of the scoreboard but it is very important to us. That snapped a string of four games where Indianapolis was outgained yet it was able to go 3-1 in those games so it shows being on the right side of the unpredictable intangibles is so important. The Titans are coming off a loss against previously winless Jacksonville so they are feeling pretty down and out as well. Tennessee also lost Jake Locker for the season and while I do feel Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid backup, that is exactly what he is, a backup. The Colts have a two-game lead in the AFC South and this is where the good teams step up as a win here doesn't lock anything up but it gives them a solid cushion. Two situation favor the Colts as we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record while Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive losses. 10* (309) Indianapolis Colts
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11-14-13 | Marshall -14 v. Tulsa | Top | 45-34 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 30 m | Show |
Early in the season, it is not a good idea to be laying points on the road, especially numbers this big. Once we get closer to the end of the season though, this philosophy can change and not just because we have season numbers and averages to deal with but also because situations change with more or less on the line. Marshall trails East Carolina in the C-USA East Division by a half-game and a win here most likely sets up a season finale game for the division crown at home against the Pirates. A loss here could make that potential championship meaningless. Marshall has won two straight games since losing at Middle Tennessee St. three weeks ago on national television so it has learned from that as well. Tulsa is coming off its third straight loss and with seven losses, the season is officially done. The Golden Hurricane have thrown in the towel and while they are not going to be laying down here, once they fall behind, it will the good as done. We have two scenarios on our side as we play against home teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points. This situation is 34-7 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play on road favorites after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (313) Marshall Thundering Herd
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11-12-13 | Buffalo v. Toledo -3 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Buffalo is coming off a huge home win last week against Ohio which was the last game of the season played at the UB campus. The Bulls have been rolling as they have won seven straight games while covering their last six. Those games have not even been close as those last six victories have come by an average of 27.7 ppg and none by less than 20 points. However only two of those games were on the road and those came against Western Michigan and Kent St., which combined are 3-17 overall including 2-10 in the MAC. That makes this a big challenge tonight as Buffalo faces its toughest conference road opponent this season. Toledo has quietly won four straight games and six of its last seven to move to 4-1 in the MAC and this is must win to stay in the race in the MAC West. The Rockets trail Ball St. by a game and a half and Northern Illinois by a game and those teams square off on Wednesday. A Northern Illinois victory over the Cardinals would set up a huge game next Wednesday as Toledo hosts the Huskies. Should Toledo win there, the West would end in a three-way tie, one Toledo wins by way of its record against MAC East opponents, the league's third tiebreaker. First things first though as the Rockets need to take care of business tonight. They are 4-0 at home and while their defense gets overshadowed by the offense, this will be the toughest stop unit Buffalo has faced in MAC play. Rockets running back Dave Fluellen is questionable tonight with an ankle injury but his backup Kareem Hunt has produced three straight 100-yard games so there is far from a big dropoff should Fluellen not be cleared for tonight. If there is one game the Bulls can afford to lose and put an end to their seven-game win streak, it is this one as it is likely their matchup with Bowling Green on Nov. 29 will be for a trip to the MAC Championship game. After waiting out the weather situation for this one, the forecast looks good with a cold night on tap but no precipitation is expected. Toledo falls into a great spot as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals. This situation is 54-21 ATS (72 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Toledo Rockets
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 96 h 59 m | Show |
Houston has now lost six straight games and even worse, lost its head coach at halftime last week against the Colts but it looks as though Gary Kubiak will be making a full recovery which is great news. The Texans were ahead 21-3 at halftime but they were done after that as they lost focus and the playcalling was clearly not the same. Even though Kubiak will not be around this week, things will at least be better in that they will have had a full week to prepare with Wade Phillips, the Texans defensive coordinator, assuming the role of interim head coach. Offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will call the plays. Houston is just two and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot so the season is far from lost but this has turned into a must win and one that they will want to win for coach Kubiak. The Texans have outgained seven of eight opponents this season including outgaining the Colts last week by 169 yards and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 120.4 ypg which is extremely solid for a team sitting at 2-6. even more impressive is the fact they have played the second toughest schedule in the NFL. Arizona is coming off its bye week following a home win against Atlanta two weeks ago. Sitting at 4-4, the Cardinals are only one game out of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC so they are definitely in the thick of things. But they have been very inconsistent as they have outgained five of eight opponents by a combined 166 total yards however in the three games they were outgained, it was by a total of 389 total yards. The defense has played well as they are ranked 13th overall and 11th in scoring but the offense has been an issue as Arizona is ranked 29th overall and 24th in scoring. Houston quarterback Case Keenum has thrown for 621 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in two starts since replacing Matt Schaub and he will need to remain efficient to try and keep the Cardinals defense off balanced. The Texans fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (221) Houston Texans
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers -6 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 40 m | Show |
While I still feel that Kansas City is the biggest fraud in the NFL, Carolina is not far behind. The Panthers have won and covered four straight games after a 1-3 start to move to 5-3 on the season and are now just a game behind the Saints in the NFC South. It has been a solid run but the four wins during the streak have come against teams with no more than three wins and a combined record of 6-27. Even two of their losses came against current non-winning teams and the only team ranked in the top 16 they have played was Seattle at the start of the season. Carolina played the Seahawks tough but that was many weeks ago and all of this translates into the easiest schedule played in the NFL. The defense has been exceptional as the Panthers are ranked third overall and second in scoring but what happens now when they face an offense that has exploded for an average of 34.8 ppg over their last five games? They could be in for some trouble. While Carolina has played a weak schedule, the 49ers have not exactly played the toughest schedule either as theirs is ranked 25th in the NFL. There is a big difference however as San Francisco has proven that it can beat the elite teams in the NFL by taking a look at last season. You cannot call the 49ers record skewed because of the schedule as they would likely be winning anyway. San Francisco has won and covered five in a row, albeit against weak opposition, and it has been hearing the jeers about not beating any solid teams so this cane be their chance, at least what the public thinks as far as Carolina being a solid team. I think the biggest positive for the 49ers however is the fact that they are coming off a bye week following their trip to London. San Francisco is rested, fresh off a much-needed bye week and has begun to reload the roster with top talents on both sides of the ball. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after one or more consecutive wins. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less. This is the perfect opportunity for the 49ers to show they still are the elite team in the NFC. 10* (220) San Francisco 49ers
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers -1 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
The loss of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers cannot be overstated but reading over some of the aftereffects you would think the Packers are done and might as well pack it in. It was extremely tough last week with Seneca Wallace coming into the game in emergency duty as he was not prepared in the least bit and it showed. The difference this week is that Wallace will have had a full week of practice and preparation so things will be a lot better for the offense this time around. We are getting an exceptional line as it has dropped nine points since it opened Sunday night and while many will argue that Aaron Rodgers is worth nine points, I'm not one to buy into that as there are 21 other starters out there along with his replacement and this is the time when these players typically step up after one of their top teammates goes down. Defensively, the Packers did receive some good news this week that Clay Matthews returned to practice after missing the past three games with a broken thumb. The defense is going to have to step up and play very well against a potent offensive team. Everyone saw what the Eagles and Nick Foles did last week in Oakland but don't expect a repeat of that here. Let's not forget that Philadelphia scored a total of 10 points in their previous two games combined so we cannot assume this offense has suddenly found its groove once again. The Eagles are still a game behind Dallas for first place in the NFC East so they are in fine shape but one thing that is not fine is their defense. They are dead last in the NFL in yards allowed and despite giving up just 20 points to the Raiders last week, they allowed 560 yards so if Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin can have success, it is safe to say Seneca Wallace can as well. Philadelphia has allowed 368 total yards or more in six of nine games and they have to worry about the Packers resurgent running game as rookie running back Eddie Lacy leads the league in rushing over the last five weeks. While many are counting the Packers down and out, we are far from that group. We play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a double digit road win, after the first month of the season. This situation is 52-25 ATS (67.5 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile the Eagles are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against teams allowing seven or more passing ypa while going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (206) Green Bay Packers
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11-09-13 | Fresno State v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 48-10 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 51 m | Show |
After a 4-2 start, Wyoming has been a big disappointment the last two games, losing at home against Colorado St., a game in which we had the Cowboys, and then following that up with a loss at San Jose St. Overall, they are 3-1 at home which is solid and they have been pretty sizable favorites in those games but now they go into this one as the home underdog and a sizeable one at that. The defense has been the main cause of concern the last two games as Wyoming allowed 52 and 51 points, which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Chris Tormey so the fact it had a bye week after those and prior to this is perfect timing. It is a very interesting scenario considering San Diego St., also coming off a bye going into its game against Fresno St. two weeks ago, were throwing things at quarterback Derek Carr and the Bulldogs' offense that they hadn't seen on tape and we can expect Wyoming to throw in some new wrinkles as well. Fresno St. enters this game with a perfect 8-0 record but it could easily be worse. The Bulldogs took care of Rutgers in their opener but it took overtime to do so and then two games later defeated Boise St. by just one point. And both of those games were at home. They have played three road games and while one of those was against Idaho, one of the worst teams in FBS, the other two resulted in scares, a five points win at Hawaii and then a win at San Diego St. which was another overtime victory. Fresno St. is outgaining opponents by over 100 ypg but that is skewed by two games as its other six games shows a +64 total yards advantage overall. There is a reason the Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS as they continue to be overvalued and one of those covers came by a half-point with the only big spread winner being that game against the Vandals. Wyoming is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 525 or more total yards in its previous game while going 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 7.25 or more yppl in its previous game. Additionally, the Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game while the Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. This game has upset written all over it and I expect Wyoming to get back to the brand of football it showcased earlier in the season. 10* (154) Wyoming Cowboys
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11-09-13 | UCLA v. Arizona +1.5 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 43 m | Show |
UCLA and Arizona come in with pretty similar credentials as both are sitting at 6-2 on the season, both are 3-2 in the Pac 12 and both are 0-2 against teams ranked in the top 30 in power rankings. The Bruins have played a slightly tougher schedule but not enough to make a difference. Those similarities would think to put these teams pretty even on a betting sheet thus putting Arizona as a small favorite when factoring in home field. Instead, UCLA comes in as a road favorite which I feel is completely ludicrous. It has been a great story in the Bruins turnaround since Jim Mora has come in but things have gone south. Losses against Stanford and Oregon, which were expected, were worse than most though as they were outgained by a combined 425 total yards and last week against Colorado, despite a 22-point home win, UCLA outgained the Buffaloes by just 31 yards. Now they hit the road again against a team out for some serious revenge. Arizona has yet to face Oregon and it misses Stanford while its two losses came at Washington and at USC and they were a lot more respectable. This is the first of three straight home games for the Wildcats as they look to make a push before closing the season at Arizona St. Four of Arizona's previous five games have been on the road so it has not spent much time in Tucson with the lone win coming by 11 points against Utah. Overall, the Wildcats are 3-0 at home and to say they don't want to win this game big would be an understatement. After a 39-36 home win last year over then-No. 10 USC, the Wildcats traveled to the Rose Bowl with a 5-3 mark and feeling pretty good about the rest of their season. Instead, Arizona left with a 56-point loss while it was outgained 611-257. Head coach Rich Rodriguez said his team is aware of the game's implications, but tries to make sure they focus on the process and not the end result. However, he admitted there is "no question our guys will feel the buzz." Arizona running back Ka'Deem Carey will be out for some retribution as well. The UCLA game was the last game in which Carey failed to rush for 100 yards, as he totaled 54 yards on 16 carries. In 11 games since, including a bowl game, Carey has 1,986 rushing yards with 20 touchdowns. This season, UCLA ranks eighth in the conference, surrendering 167.6 ypg on the ground. UCLA is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after scoring 42 points or more last game while going 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games against teams averaging 4.75 or more ypc rushing. 10* (198) Arizona Wildcats
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11-09-13 | Utah State v. UNLV +14 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 95 h 20 m | Show |
We played against UNLV last week for the simple reason it was in a bad spot coming off a road win at rival Nevada the previous week. I did mention that of the Rebels five wins, none were against winning FBS teams so asking them to win here may seem like a stretch but the spot is a lot better and they are getting a much better line on top of it. You cannot take away the turnaround UNLV has made this season. As mentioned last week, one more win would match their win total from the first three seasons combined as UNLV had won just two games in each of the first three season under head coach Bobby Hauck. Additionally, one more win would get the Runnin' Rebels to a bowl game for the first time since 2000, or at least make them eligible. Games against Air Force and San Diego St. await so there is no guarantee of an easy win but the confidence is still there and the motivation definitely is. Utah St. comes in with an identical 5-4 record but it has a much better power rating and thus, is a large road favorite against another 5-4 team. The Aggies have not much to impress me however as they have defeated just one team with a winning record and their other three wins against FBC opposition were against teams a combined 4-21 so they definitely lack the quality wins they have secured in the past in turning this program around. The loss of Chuckie Keeton at quarterback was a massive blow and Darell Garretson has been a decent backup but he is far from the same player. The defense is very solid but again, the best games came against some poor teams. The Rebels possess a very strong offense fortified by a great running game and while they were held in check last week against the Spartans, I expect a much better effort this week even though it will be against what is considered a better defense. One of the reasons is the Rebels can spread the ball out and Utah St. has had a problem especially containing pass plays as it has allowed 35 passes of 20 yards or more this year and has allowed four touchdowns of 20 yards or more in their last four games. The Rebels have a very strong time test contrarian situation on their side as well as we play on teams that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after allowing 525 or more ypg over their last three games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Rebels are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. 10* (186) UNLV Runnin' Rebels
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11-09-13 | BYU +7.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -104 | 96 h 19 m | Show |
BYU has faced a very challenging schedule by playing as an independent and it doesn't get any easier here but this actually sets up better for the Cougars than it does got Wisconsin. BYU has won five straight games to improve to 6-2 on the season with its two losses coming by a combined 10 points. The Cougars have not been beating up any patsies either as they have played the 21st ranked schedule in the nation. BYU has outgained every opponent this season and on average, it is outgaining foes by 128.7 ypg which is a pretty significant amount considering the caliber of competition. The first trip this far east did not go good as it resulted in a loss at Virginia and with the Cavaliers are playing now, that loss is looking worse and worse but the Cougars have more than made up for it. While being an independent means playing a difficult schedule, playing an independent can be very challenging depending upon when it takes place. Georgia Tech four weeks ago went into Provo and got pummeled while the same thing happened to Boise St. two weeks ago. It is tough for teams that are in the middle of their conference season to lose focus and play a non-conference game this late in the season and that is what Wisconsin is being asked to do. After losing to Ohio St. to go to 1-1 in Big Ten play, the Badgers have won their last three games but have to avoid the letdown before finishing out with three more conference games. I doubt Wisconsin is going to sit down here but it will be hard putting forth 100 percent effort when BYU has done just that all season and it does not have to worry about nay conference letdowns. Wisconsin is 6-2 as well but both losses came against teams ranked within the top 30 and that is where the Cougars fall as well. BYU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 while going 9-0 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. It also falls into a great situation where we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games. This situation is 68-32 ATS (68 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (157) BYU Cougars
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11-09-13 | SMU +10 v. Cincinnati | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 89 h 14 m | Show | |
Cincinnati is coming off a win last Wednesday at Memphis and while we were on the wrong side of that one, watching the Bearcats showed that they are a pretty weak 6-2 team. The Bearcats have five wins against FBS opposition but the combined record of those teams being 3-36 with the best record of the bunch being 1-7 Purdue. Even their two losses have come against teams that are a combined 5-11. If that is not a misleading record because of a schedule, I don't know what is. Cincinnati has dominated the yardage totals and the scoreboard in those victories as it should be but that really doesn't mean a lot when there has not been much of a challenge. This is the last game of the season against a team with a losing record and while it is expected to win, this is the toughest team it has seen in a long time. SMU is 3-4 including a 2-1 record in the AAC. One loss came in overtime while the other three were against Texas Tech, Texas A&M and TCU so the road has not been as easy. Looking at a recent line should that Cincinnati was favored by 14.5 points in its last home game against Connecticut so this line is telling us that the Huskies are just five points worse than SMU and that is far from the case. The Mustangs need three more wins to become bowl eligible for the fifth straight season and this could be a swing game as games against Houston and UCF could result in losses making this one a must win to get to the six-win mark. This game is strength against strength as the SMU offense is ranked 19th in the country while the Cincinnati defense is ranked sixth in the nation but that again is skewed because of the schedule. In their last game, the Mustangs had a school-record 728 total yards, and quarterback Garrett Gilbert set a school mark for passing yards with 538. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games after two consecutive covers as a favorite while the Mustangs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams allowing 285 pr fewer ypg. Additionally, they fall into a fantastic situation where we play on road underdogs that are averaging 450 or more total ypg, after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 36-8 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (123) SMU Mustangs
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11-09-13 | Florida State v. Wake Forest +35 | 59-3 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 14 m | Show | |
We won with Florida St. last Saturday as it scored 20 unanswered points in the second half to pull away from the Hurricanes. Both offense and defense were dominant and the hype for that game was enormous so even though it ended up being an easy victory, this is a massive letdown spot for the Seminoles and those high profile games are usually tough to recover from. Making things even tougher for the Florida St. side is that this is a noon kickoff. The Seminoles moved back into second place in the BCS standings because of the win and the fact that Oregon was idle but that will switch back this week should the Ducks defeat Stanford on Thursday no matter what Florida St. does here. They are clearly the better team here but being favored by five touchdowns is a little too much to be asking for. This is even more the case as the Seminoles were favored at home by a point less against NC State two games back and the Wolfpack are ranked lower than the Demon Deacons and that shows what a high profile win can do to a line in the very next game. Wake Forest nearly defeated Miami on the road two weeks ago but lost in the final minute and that loss stuck with the Demon Deacons for a while as they went into Syracuse last week and were shut out. They lost arguably their best player last week as receiver Michael Campanaro is out for about four weeks with a broken collarbone so that isn't going make things any easier. The good is that Wake Forest can create a gameplan without him as it has to go on the fly for three quarters last week after he was hurt and that was tough for the players to pick up. Having been on the road for the last two week, Wake Forest is anxious to get home and do what it can to try and avenge a 52-0 loss in Tallahassee last season as it was outgained by close to 500 total yards. Defensively, the Demon Deacons rank 20th in the nation in points allowed per game as well as 56th in the nation in yards allowed per game with just under 400 so while they won't stop Florida St., they should be able to slow them down. Florida St. is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in its last 17 road games coming off three straight wins against conference rivals while the Demon Deacons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. Additionally, head coach Jim Grobe has shined in this type of matchup as his teams are 16-5 ATS in the 21 home games against teams averaging 250 or more passing ypg. 9* (134) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
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11-09-13 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -2.5 | 49-26 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 14 m | Show | |
We lost with Texas Tech last week in what ended up being a bad call on the Red Raiders despite the fact they outgained Oklahoma St. by 57 total yards. The problem was that they fell behind by 21 points early in the game and were able to pull back to within four points but could never get the lead. That was the second straight loss for the Red Raiders after opening the season with seven straight wins and while the talk of being overrated because of the hot start is starting, I think there is tremendous value in backing them again this week. First off, the line value is great as they are favored by roughly the same amount they were last week yet Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. are not in the same vicinity in the power rankings. Additionally, this is the final home game of the season for Texas Tech as it is coming early so ending the season here with a win is vital. Kansas St. has won two straight games in blowout fashion as it was able to take out Iowa St. and West Virginia with very little problems. The Wildcats have covered four straight games now and that is definitely into the short number they are getting here. They have only played two road games this season, both of which resulted in losses, and they are coming off a three-game homestand which makes this the first road game in a month. The defense has picked things up over the last two games, allowing a total of 19 points but those games were against losing teams with offenses ranked 108th and 76th in the nation and now it faces another tough offense as the Red Raiders are ranked seventh in the country in total offense. Kansas St. has allowed an average of 30 ppg against four teams ranked in the top 45 in total offense. I expect a big falloff of the recent defense domination here. Texas Tech is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a home loss by 14 or more points and it falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play against road underdogs that are coming off a home win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off two straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (156) Texas Tech Red Raiders
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11-08-13 | Air Force v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show |
Air Force opened the season with a win over Colgate from the FCS and then followed that up with seven straight losses. The Falcons finally got back into the win column with a victory over Army this past Saturday and that was obviously a big victory as it was part of the Commander-In-Chief series and those are always huge games. "Doing this at home against Army is amazing," said junior free safety Christian Spears, who led the Falcons with 12 tackles. "The season hasn't gone the way we would have liked, but in our locker room, this is the best 2-7 has ever felt." That will be a tough game to overcome, especially on a short week with travel plus the fact Air Force is coming off three consecutive home games as well as a bye week mixed in there so the Falcons have played on the road in a month. New Mexico is having an equally tough season as it has dropped three straight games and is now 2-6 overall. To their credit, the Lobos have played a difficult schedule similar to that of Air Force as they have dropped only one game to a team with a losing record and that was a close loss against Texas-San Antonio. The last three losses have come against three of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference and losses at Wyoming and San Diego St. were by only 12 points combined. While making it to a bowl game is unlikely with games remaining at Fresno St. and Boise St., New Mexico comes into this game knowing that it is still mathematically alive while Air Force has no chance with its seven losses. The Lobos are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams that are getting outscored by 10 or more ppg on the season while Air Force is 2-9 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against defenses allowing 8.0 or more passing ypa. New Mexico is playing with quintuple revenge as it has lost five straight meetings but it was the underdog in all of those so being the favorite here is definitely telling us things are not how they used to be. 10* (118) New Mexico Lobos
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11-07-13 | Washington Redskins v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 55 h 47 m | Show |
Washington has been very inconsistent this season as it comes in 3-5 but we saw a very similar first half a season ago when it started 3-6 only to go on and win its final seven games of the regular season to win the division and make it into the playoffs. Will we see another strong second half from the Redskins this season? I don't think so. Washington needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off San Diego before winning in overtime last week and that can be a big momentum boost but the Redskins have been unable to win consecutive games this season, following up their first two wins with blowout road losses. Granted, they are facing a team with a losing record this time around but until their defense gets right, they will not be putting together too many winning streak this year. The Washington defense is ranked 30th overall and 31st in scoring and while the Vikings offense is 27th overall, they have scored 23 or more points in six of their eight games. Minnesota is coming off a last second loss against Dallas as the Cowboys were able to make up for their last second loss the previous week in Detroit. The Vikings fell to 1-7 and have dropped four straight games while not winning a single game on American soil. I think that comes to an end here as we are catching a line that is drawing bettors to the side of the short road favorite, similar to what we saw last week in Miami. The Vikings offense as mentioned has been able to score a good amount of points in the majority of their games and with Christian Ponder coming off his two best games of the season and Adrian Peterson coming off a season high 140 yards rushing, this offense can have a lot of success against the weak Redskins defense. The Vikings defense is not much better but they had a strong effort last week in Dallas as by holding the Cowboys to only 36 rushing yards, the Vikings dropped their defensive average against the rush by almost 10 ypg and improved their ranking form 21st to 12th in the NFL. Minnesota has lost three games in the final minute this season so it has played better than its record indicates and I give it a significant edge in playing this game at home on a short week. 10* (108) Minnesota Vikings
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11-07-13 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -14 | Top | 12-41 | Win | 100 | 54 h 53 m | Show |
Baylor is one of seven remaining undefeated teams in the country and while the Bears have had great success the last few years, this is being billed as one of the biggest home games in a long time if not ever. It is the first game between top-10 teams at Floyd Casey Stadium since 1956 and just the third ever for Baylor at home. They are ranked sixth in the most recent BCS standings and while some point to a weak schedule played thus far leading up to the undefeated start, there is no denying this offense is powerful. Baylor's offense has been held to fewer than 59 points only once this season and that was a road game at Kansas St. where it managed a 'mere' 35 points. The Sooners have won two straight games since losing to Texas and they are now 7-1 on the season. Oklahoma has a top ten ranked defense but this is by far its toughest test of the season. If you can run on them, you can beat them, but so far they've only played one team willing and able to do so and that was the Longhorns. Baylor creates a lot of space to take advantage of its speed and it makes it difficult for defenses to disguise their blitzes and create confusion for the offense, which has been one of the staples of Oklahoma's defense this season. The Sooners will play a lot of man-to-man coverage which they did last season against Baylor and it worked as Baylor managed only 172 total yards. But this team is quicker and more explosive and playing at home is a huge difference as well. The Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following two straight conference wins and 6-0 ATS in their last six games against offenses averaging 425 or more ypg. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road teams after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 71-37 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (110) Baylor Bears
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11-05-13 | Ohio +4 v. Buffalo | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
This line opened at -3 in most places and it has gone up across the board and we are now catching a line over a key number which can be important should we get involved in a close game. Ohio opened the season with a big loss at Louisville but then rolled off four straight wins before a shocking home loss against Central Michigan, losing the game in the final seconds. The Bobcats lost the turnover battle 4-1 and that was the ultimate difference as a fumble with 2:47 remaining led to a short field and the game-winning touchdown. Ohio has since won its last two games and now trails Buffalo by a half-game in the MAC East which makes the loser of this game at a big disadvantage. Ohio is 2-0 on the road in the MAC this season. Buffalo has won its last five games including four within the conference to take the lead in the MAC East. The Bulls have covered all of those games as well but it needs to be noted that those teams have a combined record of 4-39 with none of those teams owning more than two wins on the entire season. This is a very solid team defensively which is something we knew coming into the season so that cannot be taken away from Buffalo but this is easily the biggest offensive test it has faced during its winning streak. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. I feel that the experience that Ohio possess will be the difference here. The edge for the Bobcats is they are senior-laden, including quarterback Tyler Tettleton, and they have been involved in these big games while Buffalo has not. Tettleton, 10th in the country in passing efficiency, is playing some of the best football of his career and he is partly responsible for this senior-laden group that has been the most consistent winning team in the MAC East over the past four seasons. We play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games. This situation is 68-32 ATS (68 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Buffalo is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. 10* (101) Ohio Bobcats
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11-03-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-55 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
It has certainly been a difficult season for the Steelers that few saw coming. Pittsburgh opened up with a home loss against Tennessee and then went on to lose three more after that for its worst start since beginning 1-3 in 2006, the final season for head coach Bill Cowher. The Steelers won two straight after that and when it looked like things were finally turning around, they went into Oakland last week, fell behind 21-3 at halftime and could not recover. While they are 2-5, they are not as bad as that record indicates as they are outgaining opponents by close to 20 ypg but the problem has been turnovers. They are -9 in turnover margin mostly due to a defense that has only five takeaways and three of those took place last week against the Raiders. The offense has been below average but the Pittsburgh defense is still a force as it is ranked fourth in the NFL. Obviously, taking care of the ball is a must here. The Patriots meanwhile are 6-2 but they are not a very good 6-2. they have been outgained in five of those eight games and are getting outgained by an average of 16.3 ypg so the record and stats posted are the exact opposite of the Steelers. Yes, New England is 4-0 at home but it easily could have lost three of those games had things not gone their way and that is in reference to turnovers as the Patriots are +7 in turnover margin at home. These things have a way of balancing themselves out, especially with teams that are not as good as they appear to be. The offense behind Tom Brady has been below average this season despite a lot of points scored the last three games and we will see the unit struggle against this tough Steelers defense. The Steelers have been great in these spots as they are a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the number in their last eight games as underdogs when facing an opponent with a winning percent below .800 and coming off a win. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (419) Pittsburgh Steelers
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11-03-13 | Tennessee Titans -3 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
The Rams put everything they had into their game against Seattle on Monday night only to fall just short as a last minute game-winning touchdown try went amiss. Picking up the pieces from that defeat is going to be extremely difficult for St. Louis and playing on a short week does not help matters. The defense played one of its best games of the season against the Seahawks and it was actually the best of the season as far as yards go as the Rams allowed just 135 total yards. Overall, they outgained Seattle by 204 total yards but it still resulted in a second straight loss. Quarterback Kellen Clemens made his first start since replacing Sam Bradford and the results were not good as he went just 15-31 for 158 yards and two picks. While the Seattle defense is one of the best in the NFL, Tennessee's defense is no slouch. The Titans have lost three straight games but two of those were without quarterback Jake Locker. He returned against San Francisco in their last game and while it resulted in a loss by 14 points, the titans won the yardage battle by 19 yards and Locker did not play that poorly. Tennessee lost the turnover battle 2-0 and one of those resulted in a touchdown when the 49ers recovered a fumble in the endzone. The three-game losing streak certainly stings but it has been against teams that are a combined 21-3 so it is not surprising. The best news is that the Titans are coming off a bye week so they will be more than energized to get back to their winning ways when they started the season 3-1. I'm normally not one to be laying points on the road but this situation sets up perfectly for it. The Rams defensive effort was outstanding against the Seahawks as mentioned but coming back from that will be too touch as they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Titans meanwhile are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a spread loss and they fall into a great situation where we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (407) Tennessee Titans
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11-03-13 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Jets +6.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
We played against the Jets last week as they went into Cincinnati and got steamrolled by the Bengals. It was the perfect letdown opportunity involving New York as it was coming off a huge overtime victory over rival New England the previous week and it was clear that the Jets were still feeling the hangover as they fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter and could not recover. Not the Jets are back home where they are 3-1 on the season and in full bounce back mode and that is something they have been successful at all season. New York has followed up its previous three losses with wins and covers and while most are not giving it a chance against the high-flying Saints, I am fully behind the Jets as they should be able to rebound at home again. The Saints should be 7-0 right now but poor clock management against Patriots led to a last second loss. They bye week came at a perfect time for them as they were able to move away from that and bounced back as expected with a big win over Buffalo last week. New Orleans now hits the road again for the third time in four games and this is clearly a different team on the highway. The Saints barely got by Tampa Bay in their first road game of the season as they won by only two points and then in the last two roadies, they were outgained in both Chicago and New England. There is no choice for the linesmakers to list the Saints as the road favorites here but prior to last week, this line was -3.5 so it shows how one week can change the public perception of not just one, but both teams. The effort from the Jets last week was horrific and the players heard about it so you know this week we will see a much better effort this time around. We have seen success in the past as the Jets are 4-0 straight up and ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points against opponents that are coming off a win. New York also falls into a great league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (406) New York Jets
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11-02-13 | Miami (Florida) v. Florida State -22 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 59 h 33 m | Show |
At first glance, this line seems extremely high for two top ten teams squaring off but the more we see Miami, the less sold we are on it being a top ten team. The Hurricanes have struggled the last two weeks against much lesser competition as they needed a touchdown in the final minute against North Carolina and Wake Forest to pull out the victories. This is the first time since 2004 that these rivals have squared off with both being ranked in the top ten but the line is this big for a reason. Florida St. has had only one poor game and that was at Boston College where it won by 14 points after spotting the Eagles a 14-point lead. The Seminoles are coming off three dominant performances since then including a blowout win at Clemson and last week, while they didn't cover, they led 42-0 before they took their foot off the gas in the second half. They have scored at least 48 points in their last six games, averaging 54.5 ppg over that stretch. Freshman quarterback Jameis Winston came in with a lot of hype and he has been spectacular in leading this offense and there is no reason to think he will slow down. Miami is solid defensively but it has not played an offense close to as potent as this one. It is no secret that Miami is going to try and run the ball as that is where it is most successful and thus will try and keep the Seminoles offense off the field. While the Hurricanes have averaged 214.7 ypg, this will be its first big test. While Florida State's defense didn't fare great against the power running games of Pittsburgh and Boston College, the Seminoles have made a couple of adjustments in personnel since those games. In the three games since the move was made, the first-team defense has allowed less than 50 rushing ypg. Florida St. falls into a simple yet sensation situation as we play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 32-5 ATS (86.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Florida St. is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in four consecutive games. 10* (356) Florida St. Seminoles
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11-02-13 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech -2.5 | Top | 52-34 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
We played against Texas Tech last Saturday and snuck out the win with Oklahoma which handed the Red Raiders their first loss of the season. I didn't like the situation for them based on the schedule leading up to it as it was very easy up to that point but now having played a big game, I think Texas Tech can bounce back. The fact the Red Raiders are back home from a two-game roadtrip also helps matters as they are 4-0 at home this season and this is by far the lowest spread they have had to lay in the role of favorite. The loser of this game is eliminated from Big XII title consideration in all likelihood while the winner of this game controls their own destiny within the conference as both teams still have Baylor and Texas on their schedules so we give the big edge to the home team here. Oklahoma St. is coming off a win at Iowa St. last week and while it was a 31-point win, it was far from that dominant as the Cowboys won the yardage battle by just 74 total yards. While many will argue that Texas Tech is an overrated team, I clearly put Oklahoma St. up there as the Cowboys don't have a quality win as the victory over Mississippi State has lost its luster as the Bulldogs have slumped into mediocrity. The Cowboys are 2-1 on the road as they had a poor game at West Virginia, the same place that the Red Raiders just won at two weeks ago even though we were on the other side of that game. This is a double-revenge game for Texas Tech as it not only lost in Stillwater last season by 38 points but it was absolutely pummeled by the Cowboys in Lubbock two years ago 66-6. The Red Raiders have actually lost four straight in this series but going back to that 60-point loss is as far back as we really need to go. We have seen the line switch here as the early action came in on the Red Raiders as home underdogs but even at this price, there is plenty of value still. Revenge will be sweet on Saturday as Texas Tech gets back into the win column. 10* (390) Texas Tech Red Raiders
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11-02-13 | San Jose State -3.5 v. UNLV | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
One of the big early season turnarounds that we predicted we said would come from UNLV and it has not disappointed. The Runnin' Rebels are 5-3 and those five wins are tied for the most victories in a single season since winning six games in 2003. One more win would match their win total from the first three seasons combined as UNLV had won just two games in each of the first three season under head coach Bobby Hauck. Additionally, one more win would get the Runnin' Rebels to a bowl game for the first time since 2000, or at least make them eligible. It will not happen here though. Of those five wins, one came against Western Illinois of the FCS while the other four came against teams a combined 8-22 and none of them possess a winning record. Three of the final four games of the season are against teams that are .500 or worse so there are opportunities down the road to grab that sixth victory. San Jose is not one of those teams as it is 4-3 on the year including wins in three straight games. The first win during this streak came against 0-7 Hawaii but the last two have come against Colorado St. and Wyoming, both of which are sitting at 4-4. The victory last week against the Cowboys was enormous as it can provide a ton of momentum for the rest of the season. Three times, the Spartans trailed by 16 points including once in the second half and that happened to be the third straight game where they won and trailed at some point. San Jose St. is 2-2 on the road and has been one of the better road teams around as it 8-3 in its last 11 games on the highway. The Spartans bring in an offense that is clicking at the right time as they have put up 534, 608 and 642 total yards over the last three games and they will go up against a porous UNLV defense that is allowing 459.6 ypg which is 104th in the country. San Jose St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams allowing 31 or more ppg while going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after playing a game at home. Meanwhile, UNLV is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games coming off a conference road win. 9* (377) San Jose St. Spartans
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11-02-13 | Minnesota v. Indiana -9.5 | Top | 42-39 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 5 m | Show |
Minnesota became bowl eligible last week with a big home win over previously ranked Nebraska. The Gophers were expected to make it back to a bowl game because of a fairly easy schedule and they have taken advantage of that by getting to six wins in the quickest amount of time since 2008. of the seven games against FBS opponents, Minnesota has been outgained in five of those so it has not been a traditional positive run to start the season. Overall, the Gophers are getting outgained by 29.3 ypg despite outscoring opponents by a touchdown and that is a fa
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11-02-13 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse -4 | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
Wake Forest had a chance to beat a top ten team for the first time in 67 years last week at Miami but it fell just short as it allowed the game winning touchdown with just 53 second remaining. The Demon Deacons jumped out to a 14-3 lead and they looked in control most of the way but the Hurricanes were able to gradually get back into the game and pull off the win. A loss like that is extremely tough to overcome and a lot of times, teams are better off being able to rebound coming off a blowout loss than a last second defeat. Now Wake Forest has to hit the road again this week and while it takes a big step down in class, the situation is actually a lot more difficult. The last time we saw Syracuse, they were getting pummeled at Georgia Tech 56-0. We played on the Yellow Jackets in that game based on the fact that the Orange were coming off a road win at NC State the previous week and that preparing for the Georgia Tech triple option in just one week with travel involved was next to impossible. Syracuse proved that to be correct as it allowed a whopping 394 yards rushing on 67 carries (5.9 ypc) and most of that damage was done before the Yellow Jackets let up. Now the Orange are back home and off a bye week which could not have come at a better time. Syracuse looks to get back to .500 with a victory here and making this game even more important is the fact that it has two road games on deck so falling to 3-5 is not an option as it tries to make it to consecutive bowl games for the time since 1999. While Syracuse got gashed against a great rushing team in Georgia Tech, the Demon Deacons are a very poor rushing team, averaging just 97.6 ypg on 2.9 ypc, both of which rank near the bottom in the country. The Orange are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams averaging fewer than 120 ypg rushing. Offensively, they are averaging 200 ypg on the ground which is tied for 35th in the country. After putting up just 75 yards rushing against Georgia Tech, look for a huge performance this week. 9* (332) Syracuse Orange
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11-02-13 | Temple v. Rutgers -12.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 49 m | Show | |
After not being able to keep up with Louisville three weeks ago, Rutgers went into its bye week in hopes of turning things around but instead, it got blown out at home last week against Houston by 35 points. The game was tied at 14 midway through the second quarter but the Cougars scored the game's final 35 points to send Rutgers to its worst loss since 2005 when it lost to Louisville by 51 points. Additionally, the loss was Rutgers' most lopsided home loss since a 40-0 defeat to West Virginia on Oct. 11, 2002. So how can the Scarlet Knights recover? They can welcome a weak and overmatched Temple team prior to their second bye of the season. Temple is 1-7 on the season and while it has been competitive in some cases, the majority it has not. The lone win came against Army while close losses came against Fordham of the FCS by a point and against 1-7 Idaho by two points. The Owls have been outgained by at least 135 yards five times and while they are 5-3 against the number, four of those spread victories were when they were getting more points than they are getting this Saturday. This is the first time Temple has had to play back-to-back road games this season and it has not been a good scenario in the past as it is 2-6 ATS in its last eight times in the second of consecutive road games. Rutgers obviously needs to cut down on its turnovers as last week was a disaster against Houston. Temple is not much better so it is something the Scarlet Knights should be able to shore up right away. That is where the running game comes into play as the Scarlet Knights have a sizable edge even with Paul James questionable. Temple has been outrushed in all but two games and the Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Look for a big rebound effort from Rutgers this week. 9* (326) Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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10-31-13 | Arizona State v. Washington State +11.5 | 55-21 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 6 m | Show | |
The Sun Devils are rolling right now with two straight wins following a loss at Notre Dame to improve to 3-1 in the Pac 12 and are a game clear of USC, UCLA and Arizona in the South Division. The offense has been outstanding in those three wins, averaging 56.3 ppg so stopping it certainly not going to be easy for the Cougars. Arizona St. is 5-0 at home but 0-1 on the road and 0-1 on a neutral field and while we cannot compare Notre Dame and Stanford to Washington St., we can say that this line is overadjusted. Is Arizona St. nine points better than Oregon St.? this is what this line is telling us after the Beavers were favored by 2.5 points here two games back. I don't feel they are that much better and while it is an arbitrary argument, it shows this line is inflated. Washington St. is 4-4 but it is just 2-3 in the conference and the losses have certainly not been pretty. The defense has allowed an average of 56.3 ppg in those defeats but facing Oregon and Oregon St. in consecutive weeks is not easy on any team. The Cougars have at least had a week off to figure things out and returning home cannot hurt. Washington St. has been keeping within the numbers for the most past as they are 6-2 ATS on the season including a perfect 3-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog. The one thing the Cougars now possess that they did not have last year is a potent offense as they are averaging 10 more ppg than they did last year. That certainly helps with the big line we are getting on top of it. Washington St. is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game and it also falls into an excellent situation where we play against Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are outgaining their opponents by 125 or more ypg, after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile head coach Mike Leach has been a great rebounder as his teams are 13-4 ATS in 17 games off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference opponent. 9* (312) Washington St. Cougars
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10-31-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 100 | 57 h 55 m | Show |
We won with Cincinnati this past Sunday as it destroyed the Jets which were coming off that big overtime win over New England the previous Sunday. The Bengals have now won four straight games to move to 6-2 overall and they have a 2.5-game lead in the AFC North. The win over the Jets improved Cincinnati to 4-0 at home so it is just 2-2 on the road and both of those victories came by just three points each including one in overtime at Buffalo. The offense is clicking right now as the Bengals have averaged 34.3 ppg over their last three games while putting up 435.3 ypg. That makes this week a challenge. Miami started the season 3-0 but it has lost its last four games and the one this past week was probably the most disappointing as the Dolphin built a 17-3 lead only to allow the final 24 points of the game. They are under .500 for the first time and they will also be looking to get back to .500 at home where they are 1-2 with losses against Baltimore and Buffalo by a combined five points. Miami is trending in the right direction at least as it was outgained in each of its first five games but has won the yardage battle the last two games albeit by just 74 yards combined. Still, this is a desperate team in need of a victory and I like the fact we have seen the last two Thursday wins go to the road favorite and that is where the public action is going to be again this week. What has really hurt Miami has been turnovers as they have 10 over the last four games while having just four takeaways. Conversely, the Bengals have only given it away four times during its winning streak so it is easy to figure out why these teams have gone in opposite directions. Miami falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 59-28 (67.8 percent) since 1983. The Dolphins have covered four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati meanwhile is 0-2 ATS this season as a road favorite and the winning streak comes to an end this Thursday. 10* (304) Miami Dolphins
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10-31-13 | Louisiana Monroe v. Troy -3 | Top | 49-37 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 51 m | Show |
Both Louisiana-Monroe and Troy come into this game with one conference loss which puts them behind first place Louisiana which sits at 3-0 in Sun Belt Conference action. Both still have to play the Ragin' Cajuns so a win here is huge for both sides but I give the significant edge to Troy in this one. The Trojans have won three straight games after dropping three in a row and this six-game stretch was far from easy as five of those games took place on the road. This includes the last two games but both resulted in victories and they head home with momentum and a 3-0 record at Veterans Memorial Stadium on top of it. The home field advantage tailed off the previous two years but now that the team as a whole is better, the home field is stronger as well. The Warhawks meanwhile have won and covered two straight games after suffering through its own three-game skid. Both were SBC wins to move them to 2-1 in the conference but this is just their second road game over the last five weeks so their recent schedule has been just the opposite to that of the Trojans. Surprisingly, Louisiana-Monroe was getting six points in its last road game at Texas St. and it now getting less here despite the fact that Troy is a better team than the Bobcats, at least power ranking wise. The Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. Troy has been pretty lousy as a home favorite over the last few years and I feel that is playing into this number. Playing in the spotlight of a Thursday night should add to its home field edge and the Trojans fall into a great Thursday night scenario. We play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having won three out of their last four games, when playing on a Thursday. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Louisiana-Monroe is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after two or more consecutive straight up wins. 10* (310) Troy Trojans
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10-30-13 | Cincinnati v. Memphis +3 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 11 m | Show |
A look at the records shows that Cincinnati is clearly the better team in this matchup but there is more to everything than just records. Memphis comes in with a 1-5 record but it could easily be 3-3 if not even better than that. The Tigers have lost three games by a touchdown or less and in two of those, they outgained the opposition. In another loss, this one by 10 points against Houston, they actually outgained the Cougars in that one as well. On the season, Memphis is outgaining opponents by 28 ypg and you are not going to find that many teams that are four games under .500 at the midway point and winning the yardage battle overall. Cincinnati meanwhile is riding a two-game winning streak following blowout wins over Connecticut and Temple. The Bearcats are 5-2 on the season including 1-2 on the road and a breakdown of the schedule shows why they in fact have a winning record. Cincinnati has played six FBS teams and none have winning records and combined, they are 7-37. The only teams with more than one win, South Florida and Illinois, resulted in losses so the victories have come against teams a combined 2-28. Granted, Memphis falls into the category of the bad records but as mentioned, the Tigers are a much better team than the record shows. The only road win for the Bearcats was at 0-8 Miami Ohio and that was only by a 14-0 score. Memphis falls into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are averaging between 28 and 34 going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg, after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. Meanwhile. Memphis is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following three or more consecutive conference losses. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after a win by 21 or more points. 10* (302) Memphis Tigers
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10-27-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
The nightmare season continues for the Vikings as the Josh Freeman experiment ended rather abruptly as he is done after one start due to a concussion. They lost in New York last Monday night and he certainly didn't do much to help as he passed for only 190 yards while the offense generated just 206 total yards. The adage goes teams are not as bad as they look the previous week and we are expecting that to hold true here with Christian Ponder back at quarterback. The Packers have been one of the worst pass rushing teams in the league this year, and although the Vikings' offensive line is one of the most inconsistent in the NFL, things are shaping up for Ponder to make the most of his return to the starting lineup. This is just Minnesota's third home game of the season and what better spotlight to turn things around than on Sunday night primetime against the hated Packers. Green Bay has won and covered three straight games which is also playing into this inflated line it is laying here. The Packers do look to be clicking once again as they have outgained each of their last five opponents but this is not going to be an easy environment come Sunday night to continue their recent dominance. The offense has not missed a beat despite numerous injuries but now Green Bay has to deal with another one as tight end Jermichael Finley is out after a severe neck injury last week so the depth at tight end is next to nothing. Aaron Rodgers has had his struggles against the Vikings and while the pass rush for Minnesota has not been the same, the home crowd could lift it up here. The wild card here could be a simple one and that is to get Adrian Peterson going as he has not lived up to expectations from last season. Facing the Packers could break him out of his slump though. In the two games these teams played in the regular season last year, Peterson ran for a total of 409 yards and two touchdowns. He was slowed down in the playoff game with just 99 yards but the Vikings had to start Joe Webb in that game so the Packers were able to key on Peterson. Here we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (230) Minnesota Vikings
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10-27-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
After losing three straight games, Atlanta bounced back last week and took care of Tampa Bay but it wasn't overly easy. The Falcons were outgained by 46 total yards and lost the first down battle 23-15. They once again could not get a running game going as they finished with just 18 yards on 18 carries (1.0 ypc). Atlanta also benefitted from a 30-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown for its first score and the Buccaneers were forced to settle for three field goals. All-in-all, it was not the dominating performance Atlanta was hoping for coming out of its bye week and now it has to hit the road where it is winless on the season. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by just 8.3 ypg and while the offense is a solid ninth in both scoring offense and total offense, the injury situation is dire and will catch up eventually. Arizona has had some extra time to rest as it played last Thursday against Seattle where it lost by 12 points, its second consecutive loss following two straight wins. While the Cardinals are getting outgained overall on the season, they have won the yardage battle in four of their seven games and while they have the added time leading up to this game, they have a bye week on deck so avoiding a third straight loss going into that is top priority. Playing at home is definitely a benefit for the offense as Arizona is averaging 23 ppg in its three home games compared to 16 ppg in its four road games. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. This is the first time Arizona has been a favorite this season and the consensus is showing a bucking of that as the majority of the action has been on Atlanta yet the line has not budged. This is an indicator of public betting on the Falcons based on the past and not the present. We play against road underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983. on top of that, Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win while the Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games following a home loss. 9* (228) Arizona Cardinals
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10-27-13 | NY Jets v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 9-49 | Win | 100 | 76 h 56 m | Show |
The Jets are coming off a huge win last week at home against the Patriots following a controversial penalty call but nonetheless, it puts them in a tough spot this week. As has been the case all season with New York, it has followed up its wins with a loss next time out and I don't see how this is going to be any different. The best example was the win prior to this last one when the Jets went into Atlanta on Monday night and defeated the Falcons only to come home the following week and lay an egg against the Steelers. The victory over the Patriots was arguably an even bigger one and the only difference now is that the Jets have to go on the road which makes it even tougher. In games at New England and Atlanta, New York was getting double-digits and this week, it is getting less than a touchdown in most places so I see a lot of value on the Bengals here. Cincinnati is coming off two dramatic road wins over the last two weeks to take a two-game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore and Cleveland. This is normally a fade spot against teams in college but it tends to be different in the NFL in a lot of cases. Because those games were on the road and now the Bengals travel home, I feel this is a big momentum boost and it is accentuated even more because their next two games are on the road including a game at Miami this coming Thursday. Cincinnati has won five of its last six games while going a perfect 3-0 at home both straight up and against the number and has won five straight games at home dating back to last season. The defense has led the way as overall, Cincinnati is seventh in scoring and ninth in total defense. But it will be up to the offense to be able to pull away in this one which I think is a definite. The one thing that the Bengals can limit here is the Jets pass rush ability. Pro Football Focus rates the Bengals offensive line second in the league in pass-blocking efficiency and that is a major challenge to a defense that relies heavily on its pass rush to stop its opponents' passing game. The Bengals fall into an awesome situation as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1983 including going 7-1 ATS over the last five seasons. 10* (222) Cincinnati Bengals
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10-27-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +17 | 42-10 | Loss | -115 | 70 h 35 m | Show | |
The NFL travels to London for a second time this season and it looks like another dud with the 49ers and Jaguars squaring off. After back-to-back blowout losses, San Francisco has again found its groove as it has won four straight games while covering all of those as well. This is a train not many want to step in front of but we will be the exception. While the scoreboard shows domination, the stat sheets do not as the 49ers have been outgained in the last three games. They have taken advantage of opportunities as they won the turnover battle in all three games and by a combined 10-2 while scoring two defensive touchdowns directly off two of those. Going back, the 49ers have been outgained in five of their last six games. And then we have Jacksonville which is still winless on the season at 0-7 and while this does not look like the opportunity to break through for that elusive first victory, tell that to the Broncos. The Jaguars have played a lot better since the return of wide receiver Justin Blackmon as they have come close to doubling their offensive output after he came back. Granted this will be toughest defense Jacksonville has seen over this stretch but the Jaguars are at least playing with the most confidence they have all season. While they are just 1-6 ATS, three of the last six games have fallen within this pointspread while a fourth missed by just one point. Additionally, a number this large always ensures that the backdoor cover is always there. There are two factors the Jaguars are counting on to lift them out of their slump, a greater camaraderie and team spirit after a week spent together, and an added determination to get a win on the board for coach Gus Bradley, who joined the trip late after the death of his father. Jacksonville feels that the talent level is not that great but it is just a matter of execution. Jacksonville falls into one of the best NFL situations around as we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 7-0 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. The average point differential in those 26 games is just a touchdown. Additionally, NFL underdogs that are getting 16 or more points and are at least 0-3 and facing a team with at least one loss are 9-0 ATS. 9* (210) Jacksonville Jaguars
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions -3 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 39 m | Show |
The Lions are coming off a crushing defeat last week as they lost to Cincinnati on a field goal as time expired. The Lions have been able to rebound in their other losses this season and I am expecting the same again this week. Detroit has its bye next week prior to two road games at Chicago and at Pittsburgh so the ultimate goal right now is to go into the week with a win in order to keep pace with Green Bay. That was the Lions first home loss of the season and this is the first opportunity that they have had consecutive games at home. The offense has been outstanding all season with the lone exception being the game at Green Bay in which Calvin Johnson was out which shows how big his presence is. They have been able to feed off big offensive games as the Lions are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas is coming off a big win at Philadelphia to take over first place in the NFC East and while this is Detroit's first back-to-back home set of the season, this is the Cowboys first back-to-back road set of the year. The last time Dallas won a road game with a road game to follow was the start of last season when it won against the Giants on opening week only to get thumped in Seattle the next week. Making matters even more difficult is the fact that the two wins during this two-game streak were both against divisional foes. The Cowboys are now 6-1 ATS his season which is the best spread record in the league and being a public team, this will be ridden out. While Dallas is third in scoring offense and 16th in scoring defense, those rankings drop to 13th in total offense and 29th in total defense. That last ranking will be the downfall here. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and that also falls into a league-wide situation favoring the Lions. We play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1983. This includes an 11-2 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Dallas is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a victory. 10* (212) Detroit Lions
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10-27-13 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +4 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 7 m | Show |
We got burned last week with Wyoming as Colorado St. came into Laramie and thumped the Cowboys to snap its four-game losing streak in the Border War. That was a huge win for the Rams in its biggest rivalry game and now it has to travel to the island to take on Hawaii before heading back home for another huge game against Boise St. This is a very tough spot for Colorado St. as it is not going to be taking the Warriors as serious as it should which could cost them. We are also seeing a reverse line movement in this game as the majority of the betting action has come in on the Rams yet the line has actually dropped. Colorado St. has been a road favorite only four times since 2009 and is 0-4 ATS in those games, losing three of those games outright. Additionally, the Rams are 0-4 straight up in their last four games in the second of back-to-back road contests. Hawaii comes into this game winless on the season, sitting at 0-6, but it has had some tough losses including the last three games that were lost by a combined 17 points. This includes a two-point loss at UNLV two weeks ago which is a big deal as the Warriors will have had an extra week to prepare for this game which gives them an extremely big edge in travel. Typically, teams have a routine for getting ready to go to Hawaii but Colorado St. has not played here since 1996. That head start will help the Warriors prepare for the difficult matchup, but the excitement of Homecoming will be another point of emphasis and motivation for the team. Despite Colorado St.'s offensive success, Hawaii's offense has been steadily improving to match up against the Rams attack. Although the Warriors struggled offensively to start the season, they have averaged more than 33 ppg during the past three contests. Senior quarterback Sean Schroeder, who has thrown for 988 yards in his past three games, has proven competent at keeping up with opposing offenses. While Hawaii's defense has been an issue, Colorado St. is not far behind so the Warriors offense should keep its momentum going. Hawaii is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after allowing 525 or more total ypg over its last two games while the Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game while going 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. This has upset written all over it. 10* (208) Hawaii Warriors
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10-26-13 | Arizona v. Colorado +14.5 | 44-20 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 17 m | Show | |
Colorado is coming off a less than inspiring victory over Charleston Southern but a win is a win and it looks to carry that into homecoming on Saturday night against Arizona in search of its first Pac 12 victory. The victory improved the Buffaloes to 3-3 overall and those three wins match the total wins from the last two seasons combined. Two of those wins have come against FCS opponents so there is not a whole lot of substance to that .500 record but something says it comes out strong in this one. The only home Pac 12 game was against Oregon and that one was over before it started even though the Buffaloes did open up the game by taking a 3-0 lead and then taking another lead before the Ducks pulled away. While this is not the last winnable conference game on the schedule, it does present a great opportunity to put a end to the 11-game Pac 12 losing streak. We won with Arizona last week as it defeated Utah to snap its two-game losing streak to open conference action. Both of those games were on the road and now the Wildcats hit the road again where they are 1-2 this season and 3-10 over their last 13 road games. Like Colorado, Arizona owns one win over an FCS school while also putting up pretty average victories over UNLV and Texas-San Antonio so I am not completely sold on the Wildcats as of yet. A big reason for playing on them last week was due to Utah coming off a huge home win over Stanford the previous week and now we have a similar situation this week in going against Arizona even though it was not an upset of any stretch. Still it puts them in an overreaction spot especially knowing they are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 35 or more points. Colorado also has some payback in mind for tonight as last season in Tucson, it was a 56-31 annihilation, thanks to Ka'Deem Carey, who rushed for a Pac 12 record 366 yards and scored four touchdowns. The Buffaloes have not forgotten that one. First-year coach Mike MacIntyre told beat reporters if he had been part of that team he'd have been "embarrassed and would want to redeem myself." So, the motivational part of MacIntyre's game plan for Saturday is already locked in. Arizona is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points while going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. Meanwhile Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog playing with revenge and coming off a straight up and ATS win. 9* (140) Colorado Buffaloes
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10-26-13 | Florida Atlantic +24.5 v. Auburn | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 40 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic looks to continue its very solid play of late even though the wins have not been coming. The Owls are 2-3 over their last five games with outright wins over South Florida and UAB on the road but it is the three losses which shows how much better things could be right now. The three losses have come by a combined 12 points with one of those coming in overtime by a touchdown and over the last four games, the Owls have won the yardage battle in each of those. Five of their seven games have been on the road and they are 6-1 ATS in those games including going 5-0 ATS as double-digit underdogs. Normally this type of solid play against the number would trigger a shortening of the lines but in this case, I think we are getting even great value because of what happened on the other side. Auburn continued its remarkable turnaround with an upset win at Texas A&M last week which moved the Tigers to 6-1 overall which is twice as many wins as they had all of last season. Now they are being asked to lay the biggest spread against an FBS opponent of the season following a monumental upset. Regulars know I love going against teams coming off big wins, especially on the road and are now sandwiched in a meaningless non-conference game with another road conference game on deck. That is also the case here as Auburn has games at Arkansas and Tennessee up next. Not counting the game against Western Carolina of the FCS, Auburn has been outgained in half of its games and has gotten outgained by a total of 76 yards. Conversely, Florida Atlantic has outgained its seven FBS opponent by a total of 110 yards. The schedule ranks are 33rd and 62nd so the level of opposition is not far off. These yardage differences are extremely important as it shows these teams are a lot closer than the records are indicating yet the line we are getting is showing nothing of the sort. Florida Atlantic is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off a straight up loss but cover while under head coach Carl Pelini, it is 10-1 ATS in its 11 games coming off one or more consecutive losses. The Owls also are backed by a solid situation where we play against home favorites that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against teams allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 ypc, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 9* (143) Florida Atlantic Owls
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10-26-13 | North Texas v. Southern Miss +11.5 | 55-14 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 9 m | Show | |
Often times we see teams fall into horrible situation one week only to fall into a great situation the next week even without doing anything good. That is the case with Southern Mississippi this week. We played against the Golden Eagles last week as they were facing East Carolina which was coming off a brutal loss against Tulane in overtime despite outgaining the Green Wave by 233 total yards. Additionally, it was the Pirates third straight road game so you knew they would come in strong. Now it is up to Southern Mississippi to come in try and right its own ship as it has lost 18 straight games dating back to last season. The Golden Eagles have done little at the betting window as well as they have covered just four of those 18 games including only one of six this season. Here is the difference. In their last home game prior to East Carolina, they were favored by 16.5 points against FIU and now they are getting 11.5 points against North Texas which is basically saying that the Mean Green are four touchdowns better than FIU. That is hardly the case as the difference is not even three touchdowns. I have played on and against North Texas a few times this season and it has been playing on them at home and playing against them on the road. Those games worked out as expected and after winning on the road last week at Louisiana Tech, I am not expecting a a second straight positive effort on the road even though last week the Mean Green were actually outgained by 18 yards and somehow won by 15 points. Additionally, this is their fourth road game in their last five contests so the travel has been extremely taxing. North Texas has three consecutive home games on deck including a game against undefeated Rice on Thursday so there is the good chance of the Mean Green looking ahead to that one. The last thing it wants to do here is lose outright but the situation is bad enough where that could actually happen. It can become difficult for players to keep trying when nothing goes right but first-year head coach Todd Monken has instilled a positive attitude from day one and to put each game, and each loss behind them and move on. North Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games while going 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after win. Meanwhile, Southern Mississippi is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after gaining 3.75 or fewer yppl in its previous game and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 9* (186) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
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10-26-13 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 30-38 | Win | 100 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
We played against Texas Tech last week and we got burned on that one as the Red Raiders outscored West Virginia 14-0 in the fourth quarter including a touchdown in the final minute to secure the cover. While the setup was not very good there for Texas Tech, it gets much worse this week as it heads to Oklahoma which kicks off the difficult part of its schedule. The Red Raiders have played the second easiest schedule in the Big XII, ranked 87th overall, as they trail only Baylor for strength of schedule ranking. Now that TCU lost last week, every team Texas Tech has defeated in the conference has a losing record overall and the combined record of the four teams in Big XII action is 2-12. The Red Raiders still have Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Baylor and Texas after this so 7-0 could turn into 7-5 without much problem. Of the 10 remaining undefeated teams, Texas Tech is ranked eighth out of the group according to a few power ranking reports. Oklahoma shook off its loss against Texas with a win at Kansas last week although it was far from a blowout as expected it would be. The Sooners won by just 15 points and has to rally from 13-0 down but they did outgain the Jayhawks by 214 total yards so it was pretty dominating. Now Oklahoma heads back home where it is 4-0 this season and an incredible 81-5 under head coach Bob Stoops even though two of those losses came last season. While the effort may not have been there last week, it will be there this week as Oklahoma has a bye on deck before a monumental game at Baylor on Thursday night the following week. I expect Oklahoma to be able to run with plenty of success against the Red Raiders even though the defensive rankings go against that. The schedule has a lot to do with that and Texas Tech has yet to face a team with a real running game. On the other side, the Sooners are ranked ninth in total defense and first in passing defense so the Red Raiders will have their hands full. The home team had won seven straight meetings in this series before the last two seasons where the road teams took it. This includes Texas Tech winning at Oklahoma by a field goal in 2011 as a 29-point underdog so don't think for a second that the Sooners have forgotten that as it snapped their 39-game home winning streak. We play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 38-10 ATS (79.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, Texas Tech is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (164) Oklahoma Sooners
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10-26-13 | Tennessee v. Alabama -28 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 97 h 52 m | Show |
You have to give a lot of credit to Tennessee which is coming off a huge home win against South Carolina. It got the Volunteers back over .500 but now comes the real test. They were coming into last week off a bye which followed a tough overtime loss against Georgia, so as good as that situation was, it takes an opposite turn this week. The game against South Carolina was its third straight at home and the Volunteers have not fared well on the road, going 0-2 with losses at Oregon and Florida and in those games, they were outgained by 371 and 162 yards respectively. Even against the Gamecocks they were outgained which makes it five times in six FBS games that Tennessee has lost the yardage battle. This is a big number for Alabama to be laying but this is one of a few teams in the country where big numbers do not bother them. The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS this season when laying double-digits against FBS opposition and 8'2 ATS in their last 10 games going back to last season. Alabama has LSU on deck but there is a bye week in-between that so there is little chance of a lookahead especially considering LSU is coming off a loss. Alabama is clearly the only elite team in the SEC this season and was further proven this past weekend with Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, LSU and Texas A&M all going down. Alabama has really picked it up on offense as three of its four highest yardage output games have come in its last three games. The defense remains solid as the Crimson Tide are ranked fifth in total defense and first in scoring defense as they have allowed a total of 16 points in their last five games combined. Tennessee is 89th in total offense so it will have a tough time here and considering it has scored more than 10 points only once in the last five meetings with Alabama, the situation seem dire. We have two great situations on our side. First, we play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 29-3 ATS (90.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons including going a perfect 16-0 ATS the last five years. Second, we play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 29-4 ATS (87.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite between 21.5 and 31 points while Tennessee is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (146) Alabama Crimson Tide
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10-26-13 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia +10 | 35-25 | Push | 0 | 71 h 41 m | Show | |
Virginia opened the season with a win against BYU and that still qualifies as a quality victory. It has been all downhill since then though as the Cavaliers have gone 1-5 with the only win coming against VMI of the FCS. Losing to Oregon was expected but losing to Duke and Ball St., both at home, was not, but this presents a great opportunity to buy them at a low premium. When teams are not playing well, bettors tend not to touch them however this is where we are presented with the most value, especially on their home field after coming off a home loss. This is where pride comes into play and that is bolstered by the fact the Cavaliers have simply beaten themselves. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a blowout win over Syracuse last week which snapped a three-game losing streak and again put them back over .500. While we were on Georgia Tech last Saturday, we will coming off of them just as fast as this is a horrible spot. The Yellow Jackets were outgained in all three of those previous losses and this is not a team I feel should be laying double-digits to anyone on the road. Georgia Tech now goes from an 8.5-point home favorite to a 10-point road favorite in a span of just one game and that is a severe overreaction to one weekend of games. The Yellow Jackets have been an ACC double-digit road favorite three times since 2010 and they are 0-2-1 ATS. Last season, the Cavaliers defense got gashed by the Georgia Tech triple option but things could be different this time around under first year defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta as he is no stranger to the triple option. As a defensive assistant at NC State from 2010-12, he faced Georgia Tech twice. As a defensive assistant at Notre Dame from 2008-09, including one year as the coordinator, he faced Navy twice. Those teams only allowed an average of 29 ppg and just over 267 ypg rushing. We have a contrarian situation on our side as we play against road teams that are +/- 0.6 yppl going up against teams outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-7 ATS (82.9 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a home conference win. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home and this is where the pride factor comes into play. 9* (112) Virginia Cavaliers
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10-26-13 | Vanderbilt v. Texas A&M -17 | 24-56 | Win | 100 | 70 h 26 m | Show | |
Texas A&M took itself out of the BCS Championship picture with a loss against Auburn last week but I am expecting a big bounceback this week and we are playing the bounce angle from both sides in this one. The Aggies have shown the ability to bounce back already once this season after the Alabama loss and are 3-0 straight up and against the number since last season under head coach Kevin Sumlin when coming off a defeat. A lot of that also is because of quarterback Johnny Manziel who is listed as questionable this week after hurting his shoulder in the fourth quarter against the Tigers but he is likely going to go this week according to Sumlin. It will take a lot to keep him out. This is one of the most balanced offenses in the country as the running game makes up a big part of the success. While the Aggies were on the losing end of an upset, Vanderbilt was on the winning side of one as it defeated Georgia as a 6.5-point home underdog. While credit needs to be given to the Commodores for that victory, a lot of it had to do with the injuries that Georgia was dealing with and obviously could not overcome. That was the third straight home game for Vanderbilt and now it hits the road for the first time in over a month and it will be going into one of the toughest environments in the country. The only big road test came at South Carolina and while the Commodores only lost by 10 points, the final score does not indicate what really transpired as they were outgained by 311 total yards. The Vanderbilt offense will be hard-pressed to keep up here as it is ranked 68th overall. While the quarterback situation for Texas A&M is looking up, things are not so good for the Commodores. Austyn Carta-Samuels (.655 completion percentage, 1,672 yards, 15 total TDs, seven interceptions) suffered a leg injury last week and is listed as doubtful for this contest. Patton Robinette saw his first extended action of the year in place of Carta-Samuels and completed 9-of-15 passes for 107 yards with an interception. The Aggies fall into the same situation as the Huskies do as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points, in October games. This situation is 60-30 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Texas A&M is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. 9* (142) Texas A&M Aggies
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10-26-13 | Connecticut +23 v. Central Florida | 17-62 | Loss | -115 | 70 h 8 m | Show | |
How bad is Connecticut? In actuality, the Huskies are not as bad as their 0-6 record indicates. While they have been outgained in five of six games on the season, they are getting outgained by just 72.4 ypg which is not a large variance for a team that is winless halfway through the season. Head coach Paul Pasqualoni was shown the door after a 0-4 start but interim head coach T.J. Weist has not been able get Connecticut into the win column despite trying to do so by making some significant changes. One of those changes was taking the redshirt off quarterback Tim Boyle and while he has yet to throw a touchdown, he threw for 310 yards last week against Cincinnati which was just the third time since the start of last season the Huskies have surpassed 300 yards passing. This is the second game for Connecticut against a ranked opponent as it dropped its only other game against a ranked opponent this season, losing 24-21 to then-No. 15 Michigan on Sept. 21. Central Florida pulled off the shocker last week at it went to Louisville and defeated the Cardinals, thus knocking them out of the BCS picture and the Knights taking over that position. They have had a very big start to the season but this is one of those games that Central Florida has to be weary of as if ever there was a time for a letdown, this is the one. Had the Knights lost last week, they would be much more motivated this week and we certainly would not be catching the same amount of points as we are getting now. The offense remains the strength of this team as we saw that last week at Louisville but its defense is still filled with questions and doubts and this is where Connecticut can take advantage. The Huskies are in need of some offensive progress and this could be the opponent they want to face. The Knights are 40th in total defense including 60th in passing efficiency defense as well as 85th in third down defense. The Knights fall into a great situation as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points, in October games. This situation is 60-30 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game while Connecticut is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games after a loss by 17 or more points. 9* (113) Connecticut Huskies
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10-24-13 | Marshall v. Middle Tenn State +9 | Top | 49-51 | Win | 100 | 35 h 35 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee St. comes into this game riding a three-game losing streak but two of those games were on the road and the one loss at home came against a very strong East Carolina game by just a touchdown. The Blue Raiders covered that game with a very similar line they are getting Thursday night and with this being a nationally televised game, you can expect an even greater effort from the home squad. This one is no doubt a contrarian play based on the fact that the consensus reports are huge on the other side yet the line has not moved and has actually come down in some spots. Adding to that is Middle Tennessee has been outgained by every FBS opponent this season. Marshall has won two straight games and hits the road for the second consecutive week. Additionally, this is the Thundering Herd's fourth road game in their last five and they have not been a very strong team on the highway, going 11-41 in their last 52 roadies. Granted, they are considered a top team in the conference this season and so far, they remain the lone undefeated team in the C-USA East Division at 2-0. But because of the expectations and results, they are laying another big number this week after failing to cover at Florida Atlantic in their last game. Marshall is 1-10-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite including going 0-2 ATS this season. While the Blue Raiders defense has struggled at times, they own two important edges here, sacks and turnovers. They are tied for second in the conference with Tulane with 18 sacks in seven games, a mark that ties the team for 30th in the country. They're tied with four teams for second in the country with 20 turnovers gained, 10 interceptions and 10 fumbles recovered. As successful as Marshall has been this season, sacks and turnovers are two areas it struggles in. The Thundering Herd are tied for 91st in the nation in sacks allowed (2.5 per game) and tied for sixth in C-USA and 59th in the nation with 11 turnovers lost. The Thundering Herd have played a schedule ranked 123rd in the nation which is the third easiest schedule of teams ranked in the top 70. Marshall is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with a losing home record while the Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 16 or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 58-26 ATS (69 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (108) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders
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10-20-13 | Denver Broncos v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 77 h 12 m | Show | |
Denver has looked human the last couple weeks as it was taken to the brink two weeks ago at Dallas and struggled for a half against Jacksonville last week. Of course, the Broncos may not have been fully focused last week against the Jaguars and they were still able to pull away but now things get a little more difficult. They have lost against the spread the last two games and the number are finally catching up but I do not see an adjustment has been made this week as they are still coming in a pretty hefty road favorite against a very quality team. Obviously the big story here is Peyton Manning returning to Indianapolis for the first time since his departure but as with nay big story like this, the media takes is way out of control and it isn't like he is going to be playing any harder than he already has this season. His numbers are gaudy but this is the toughest environment that the Broncos have seen so far this year. Coming into the season, I said that the Colts were one of the biggest overachieving teams last season as they won numerous close games and despite an 11-6 record, they were actually outscored by three ppg. Fast forward to this season and Indianapolis is outscoring opponents by 8.4 ppg and while a couple blowouts have skewed that, this team could be finding in groove. I played against the Colts this past Monday night as it was a horrible spot as they were coming off a big home win over previously undefeated Seattle and had this game on deck so not showing up in San Diego was a definite possibility and that came to fruition. Indianapolis has been outgained by 106 and 107 total yards in its last two games which is not a good trend coming into this game but with the situation at hand, the Colts are very capable of stepping up. This will be the toughest defensive test for the Broncos through the first seven weeks. The Colts are ranked fifth in passing defense and scoring defense. Additionally, the Broncos could be without starting right tackle Orlando Franklin, who sprained his left knee and ankle against Jacksonville. As good as the Broncos offense has been moving and passing the ball, that's how bad their defense has been, ranking 30th and 29th respectively. They do get Von Miller back this week which is a huge addition but this team is still vulnerable on this side of the ball. The Colts are more than capable to take advantage and it is interesting to note that quarterback Andrew Luck is 6-0 in his career following a loss. 9* (422) Indianapolis Colts
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10-20-13 | Houston Texans +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 10 m | Show | |
We lost with Houston last week as the Texans continue their struggles. After opening the season with two straight victories, the Texans have lost four straight games and not because they are getting dominated but because they have committed too many dumb mistakes and have handed wins to the opposition. The offense has allowed at least one defensive score in five straight games and that is not going to win many games and as you can see, it hasn't. it is extremely rare to find a team that is sitting at 2-4 that has won the yardage battle in each game but that has been the case for Houston. And they have won four of those yardage battles by at least 186 yards. The Texans are -12 in turnover margin which is the big culprit and that skews point totals. Houston is 26th in scoring offense and 28th in scoring defense yet it is seventh in total offense and first in total defense. That is a massive discrepancy and is no doubt playing a role in the Texans 0-6 ATS record. The Chiefs took care of business again and we were on the wrong side once again. They pulled away late from the Raiders as it was a tie game late into the third quarter but Oakland kicked itself in the foot by stalling on a drive where it had a third and 48 and then tossed an interception that was taken back for a touchdown. Kansas City was outgained for the third time in six games this season and overall, it is outgaining opponents by just 20 ypg. The Chiefs have been the complete opposite of the Texans when it comes to turnovers as the have generated 18 takeaways while giving it up only six times. The offense is ranked ninth in scoring offense thanks to the turnovers and short fields but the total offense is ranked only 25th. They are going to have trouble moving the ball this week. The Texans have a bye week on deck and in order to turn this season around, a win going into that is very important. Quarterback Matt Schaub may not be playing but at this point, it may not be a bad thing at all. The Texans fall into a superior situation where we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The value is there and the Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game while going 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 9* (401) Houston Texans
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10-20-13 | Cleveland Browns +10 v. Green Bay Packers | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 8 m | Show | |
The Packers picked up a big road win at Baltimore last weekend to make it two straight wins coming out of their bye week. One thing to take note of though is that the offense has scored fewer points in each of their last four games, going from 38 to 30 to 22 to 19 points and that is not a mistake. This offense is able to move the ball but Green Bay has not been able to get into the endzone as it has been forced to attempt 14 field goals through the first five games this season. Execution obviously is a big factor in that but this offense is riddled with injuries and the offensive line has been garbage. Overall, they have the fifth-worst red-zone offense in the NFL this year. Things are not as easy as they used to be for Green Bay yet they are being asked to lay double-digits against a very underrated team in my opinion. Cleveland had its three-game winning streak snapped last week against the Lions which was unfortunate as it could not build off that positive momentum. The score shows the Browns lost by 14 points against Detroit last week but they outgained the Lions by 29 yards which was the third time in the last four games they have won the yardage battle. Quarterback Brandon Weeden made a bonehead interception which stalled a drive and pretty much ended the chances of a win. Cleveland had gone two straight games without committing a turnover so taking care of the ball is a possibility and the Packers bring in a pretty average defense to begin with. The Browns are 3-3 and could feasibly be 4-2 at this point for them to get getting 11 points is crazy to me. This one comes down to Weeden and his ability to control the offense and not commit turnovers. His receiving corps, led by Josh Gordon, Davone Bess and tight end Jordan Cameron, have developed well under offensive coordinator Norv Turner's new system. After scoring 16 points total in its first two games combined, Cleveland has averaged 25.5 ppg over its last four games. On the other side, the Browns defense is ranked seventh in the league, allowing of 312.5 ypg. They are seventh in rushing defense at 98.2 ypg, and eighth in passing defense at 214.3 ypg so this is a very solid unit that can slow the Packers down especially with the injuries they have. The Browns are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss and with Green Bay having a divisional game at Minnesota next week, they should improve upon that record. 9* (417) Cleveland Browns
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