Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-31-13 | Florida International v. Maryland -22 | 10-43 | Win | 100 | 70 h 35 m | Show | |
It was a second straight disappointing season for Maryland as after finishing 2-10 in 2011, it would go on to finish 4-8 last season. The Terrapins were poised to become bowl eligible as they started the season 4-2 but then the injury bug hit and they went on to lose their final six games. Injuries were so bad that Maryland used six quarterbacks and the last one was a true freshman linebacker that had to make the switch. The nightmare season is behind them now and they are better off for it as they gained a lot of experience because of it and this should be a bowl team come end of the season. C.J. Brown has recovered from his knee injury and he is the clear cut starting quarterback. Brown will have the luxury of throwing to one of the best players in college football, Stefon Diggs, who finished with 54 receptions for 848 yards as a freshman last year. Depth is prevalent at running back and the offensive line is solid. The defensive play for Maryland showed marked improvement in 2012, as the team finished the year ranked 21st in total defense (336.8 ypg). The Terrapins do lose some key players but the returning starters will be playing big roles in keeping the unit together. Starting he season with four straight non-conference games only helps this unit to gel come conference time. Florida International was making some serious strides as it went to bowl games in 2010 and 2011 before falling to 3-9 last season. That led to the surprising firing of head coach Mario Cristobal and the Golden Panthers will enter their first season in C-USA with veteran Ron Turner on the sidelines. This offense should be defense but the defense is likely in for a long season. It was a major disappointment in 2012 and reversing that will only get tougher now that Tourek Williams and Johnathan Cyprien are in the NFL. The Golden Panthers are small and fast, but also inexperienced and prone to getting bowled over by physical opponents. Maryland wants to get back to being a power running team and it should no problem here pushing around the front line of FIU. This line has gone up since opening and will likely continue to rise slightly so getting it at under three touchdowns is key. 9* (164) Maryland Terrapins
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08-31-13 | Buffalo +35 v. Ohio State | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 69 h 15 m | Show |
After opening under 35 points, this line has crept over the five-touchdown barrier and we will strike. Early season lines are determined on predictions of how teams will do as there is no history of games that can be looked at. That gives us some big advantages when looking at these games and going against teams that are getting overhyped. Ohio St. is one of those. This isn't to say the Buckeyes are not a good team because they are outstanding but this line inflated based on the name and the hype. Ohio St. went 12-0 last season but was ineligible for the postseason and many are calling for another undefeated season. The offense will be explosive once again behind quarterback Braxton Miller who also led the team in rushing. He will be asked to do it again here as running backs Carlos Hyde and Rod Smith will both miss this one. On the other side, the Buckeyes defense is very young and inexperience with just four returning starters. Three of those are in the secondary but Ohio St. finished 11 in the Big Ten in passing defense so this may not be a good thing. Even worse, the best returning corner, Bradley Roby, has been suspended for the opener. The front seven has to be rebuilt and that is a big question mark, especially early in the season. Buffalo has done much the last few years but this could be the best Bulls team that head coach Jeff Quinn has put on the field in his four years. They have gone from two wins to three wins to four wins through his first three years and they are talking about being MAC East champions and at worst, making it to their first bowl game since 2008. Buffalo brings back 16 returning starters including nine on offense and that is where it can take advantage because of the inexperienced Ohio St. stop unit. The Bulls offense needs more firepower and has to be more consistent in the passing game, but back Branden Oliver is a special runner and the line should be terrific with three starters returning and the starting five solid. The strength last season for the bulls was their defense and they will be tough once again. The Bulls came up with one of the nation
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08-29-13 | Ole Miss -3 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 57 h 46 m | Show |
This certainly isn't the most ideal line we are getting but I don't think it will even come into play. Ole Miss exceeded expectations last year as it went 7-6 which included a bowl win over Pittsburgh. The coaching job that Hugh Freeze did was outstanding and this year, expectations are higher which is forcing the Rebels to be favored on the road. They have 19 returning starters which is by far the most in the SEC and they brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the country which actually makes them a darkhorse contender. Ole Miss lost some close games last season and one of those came at home against Vanderbilt in the final minute so it will be out for some payback. The offense is loaded with quarterback Bo Wallace back under center and potential All-SEC running back Jeff Scott and wide receiver Donte Moncrief around him. Last year, the Rebels averaged 31.5 ppg which was nearly double from the 2011 season. If Ole Miss wants to take the next step, it must come on defense, where the Rebels finished 11th in the SEC stopping the pass last season. The good news is that Vanderbilt does not have the passing attack to take advantage like it did last year as quarterback Jordan Rodgers is gone. Additionally, wide receiver Chris Boyd was charged with assisting defendants accused of rape and sexual assault, was indicted and suspended indefinitely from the football team. Last season, he started all 13 games, accumulated 50 catches and averaged 59.5 ypg and he caught the winning touchdown pass for the Commodores in the win over the Rebels. Vanderbilt returns 13 starters overall and this year it will not be sneaking up on teams like it did in 2012. The offense will take a step down while the defensive line, a strength last season, needs to replace three of four starters. The Commodores have momentum from winning their final six games from last season however, that puts them into a negative situation as we play against teams in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight spread covers and finished with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 playing a team that had a winning record. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Mississippi Rebels
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08-29-13 | UNLV +14 v. Minnesota | 23-51 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 24 m | Show | |
Expectations are higher at UNLV this season but when a team wins a combined six games over the past three years, expectations are naturally higher. Still, this is going to be the best team that head coach Bobby Hauck has had in his four years at UNLV. The problem has been when playing on the road as the Rebels are 0-20 under Hauck when taking to the highway but things have been better. After going 0-7 ATS in 2010 and 1-6 ATS in 2011 on the road, they improved to 3-3 ATS last season with covers coming against Louisiana Tech, Boise St. and San Diego St. which went a combined 29-9 last season. Because of the winless stretch, linesmakers were forced to put up a big number here and I feel it is severely inflated. The Rebels bring back 19 starters from last season so there is definitely the chance of improving upon their win total. On offense quarterback Nick Sherry had a solid freshman season going before injuries slowed him down but he should be ready for a breakout season. He has a great offensive line in front of him, running back Tim Cornett is one of the best backs in the conference and the top receivers are back, with Devante Davis and Marcus Sullivan providing a strong 1-2 punch. The defense allowed close to a touchdown less per game last year than in 2011 and there is definitely more room for improvement with a veteran stop unit on the field. Minnesota started off 4-0 last season but went 2-7 down the stretch and while it should be better this season, laying this size spread is ludicrous. The Gophers will reply on a power running, which is how head coach Jerry Kill has built all of his teams around, but the passing game is mediocre at best. Quarterback Philip Nelson was decent in his freshman season but the passing attack failed to reach 100 yards against Illinois, Nebraska or Michigan St. over a three game stretch, and went over 300 yards only once over the final nine games. Minnesota averaged only 22.1 ppg last season so asking it to win by over two touchdowns is simply asking too much. 9* (135) UNLV Runnin' Rebels
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02-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 237 h 60 m | Show |
Two weeks ago, the AFC was -3 in the Super Bowl and now the AFC that is represented by Baltimore is getting points. That line two weeks ago could have been determined by the matchup between the top seeds Denver and Atlanta but I not think the swing should be this big with the fact that Baltimore is now the AFC representative. The value is tremendous and we are backing a team getting more points that is should that is peaking at the right time.
Baltimore is certainly playing some of its best football of the season so the extra week off may have some concerned. I do not think this is a liability though and I actually think it helps the Ravens out more than anything. The Giants were in the same scenario a season ago and they ended up winning the Super Bowl. The additional week off gives Baltimore extra time to get ready for Colin Kaepernick and it will be the first team that has had two weeks to prepare for him this season. Another bonus for the extra time off for Baltimore is to rest its defense. The Ravens defense has been on field for 1,342 plays this season and since start of 2001, no defense has logged more plays in a season The Ravens have allowed a lot of yards during the playoffs, 415.0 ypg in fact, but due to the volume of plays run against them, they're allowing just 4.86 yppl, which is the lowest number among the 12 playoff teams so the defense that gets a bad rap has stepped up huge. Joe Flacco has become the first quarterback in NFL history to win six playoff games on the road and this season he has been exceptional. He has completed 51-93 pass attempts for 853 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a passer rating of 114.7. A large portion of that success can be credited to a reshuffled offensive line that has allowed just four sacks this postseason. I was pretty unimpressed with the 49ers against the Falcons and taking them out of San Francisco has made a big difference. The utilization of the no-huddle offense has simplified the game for Flacco while producing a better rhythm and tempo. Consequently, the Ravens have blown through the playoffs behind an offense that is far more explosive and diverse than the regular-season version. Because the offensive line has been so good, the 49ers will not have much success getting to Flacco and that is huge as the San Francisco pass defense is only good when the defensive line can apply pressure. On the other side, the 49ers will utilize a combination of zone-read running and play-action passing against a Ravens defense that struggled to contain a similar offensive attack run by Robert Griffin III and the Washington Redskins in Week 14. This means nothing in my opinion as the Ravens are a difference defense now. They are playing at a much higher level and it cannot be understated that Baltimore was not even close to 100 percent healthy in that game as it is now. If this is a close game toward the end of the game, Baltimore has a huge edge in my opinion. Even though he is just a rookie, Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has missed only three field goals all season long and is a perfect 4-4 from beyond 50 yards. Conversely, David Akers for San Francisco hit the upright on a FG attempt against the Falcons and nearly was replaced before the game. He has not attempted a field goal over 40 yards in the playoffs where he was just 9-19 during the regular season. 10* (101) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 131 h 53 m | Show |
This is a rematch of not only the Week Three meeting, won by Baltimore by a point, but also a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, which the Patriots won by a field goal. New England was able to cover the inflated line against Houston last week but I do not see it happening again. In the first meeting this year, Baltimore was favored by 2.5 points which should make the Patriots about a 4.5-point favorite here based on a venue switch. Have these teams changed that much to inflate the line this much? I do not think so.
The Ravens got an improbable win in Denver thanks to a defensive gaffe by the Broncos that allowed a 71-yard touchdown pass with less than a minute remaining to send the game into overtime. Still, Baltimore has to be given a lot of credit to be able to go into Denver and take down the top seed that was riding an 11-game winning streak. The question is, can the Ravens get up once again and do the same? I totally expect them to as I not only expect them to keep it close, an outright win is far from out of the question. I think Baltimore is in fine shape similar to last season despite a lot of distractions and negative situations coming into the postseason. The Ravens lost several key performers to injuries, fired their offensive coordinator following their 13th game and dropped four of their final five contests heading into the playoffs. I am nit buying any of the 'Team of Destiny' talk but I do buy the fact that when teams are down and thought to be out, they tend to step up as adversity can bring out the best in players. Hats off to New England for taking out the Texans but they only outgained Houston by 32 totals yards but were able to take advantage of Houston mistakes and that doesn't mean turnovers. Matt Schaub did not play a very good game and the Texans finished 4-15 on third down and a team cannot win with that type of inconsistency. The victory over the Texans came with a cost, as star tight end Rob Gronkowski re-injured his left forearm and is out for the rest of the playoffs. The Patriots will be out for revenge but this line totally takes away any edge, if there was any at all. They actually fall into a negative situation where we play against home favorites that are revenging a loss against opponent after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Ravens have been in this situation before and have thrived, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road playoff games while New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 playoff games. 10* (303) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 28-24 | Push | 0 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
The Falcons got the monkey off their backs as they were finally able to win in the playoffs which was their first postseason win since 2004. It was the first playoff victory for head coach Mike Smith and for quarterback Matt Ryan as they had come in with a 0-3 playoff record prior to the miraculous win. Blowing a 27-7 lead looked as though Atlanta was in for another decimating defeat but it was able to move down field in under 30 seconds to kick the game-winning field goal.
San Francisco was arguably rooting for Seattle so it could get to play this game at home however the matchup is much better here despite the fact it has to take to the road. The 49ers are coming off a domination of the Packers as they outgained Green Bay by 227 total yards and the game was not even as close as the 14-point margin of victory showed. They held the Packers to 352 total yards and only 17 points can be blamed on the defense as a pick six and a garbage score late upped the Green Bay scoring output. Atlanta knows it has a lot of work to be done on defense and while I do think it will be able to get over that second half debacle against the Seahawks, this unit is not very good right now. The Falcons are 24th in total yards allowed and while the point totals have been kept in check for the most part, that is largely due to turnovers which will not be easy to come by here as San Francisco turned it over on 16 times during the regular season, tied for second fewest in the NFL. On the other side, the 49ers won't get caught off-guard by Atlanta's rushing attack like the Seahawks as the Falcons rushed for a season-high 167 yards. San Francisco is third in total defense and second in scoring defense but it is the balance that really hurts opponents as the 49ers are fourth against the pass and against the run while ranking third in passing ypa and rushing ypc. Taking nothing away from Seattle's defense, but this is going to be a whole different scenario for the Falcons. We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 ypg. This situation is 53-27 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. San Francisco is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while under head coach Jim Harbaugh, it is 7-0 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. Conversely, the Falcons are 3-19 ATS in their last 22 home games coming off a home win. 10* (301) San Francisco 49ers |
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01-13-13 | Houston Texans +9.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 13 m | Show |
I bet on the Patriots in the last matchup with Houston back on December 10th and it doesn't get much easier than that one as New England rolled to a 42-14 win. The betting public has not forgotten that game and with everyone still down on the Texans, they will be looking for a similar result here. Thus, the number had to be adjusted and it has been adjusted by four points which is a huge overreaction in my opinion. New England is surely one of the best teams in the NFL but this line is absurd.
The Texans won by just six points against the Bengals in their Wild Card matchup on Saturday but they dominated by more than what that score is telling us. A pick six by the Bengals was the only touchdown scored and Houston dominated by outgaining Cincinnati 420-198. Looking at just the score is not a true indication as Houston stepped up after a lethargic end to the regular season and this is still a very dangerous team on both sides of the ball. Betting against the Patriots at home in the playoffs was never a wise move as they were a perfect 4-0 from 2003 to 2007 but since then, New England is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home playoff games so while many will argue going against the Patriots at home is suicide, it is fact is not what it used to be. Playing against the Patriots coming off a bye is another myth as New England is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games with two weeks of rest, outscoring their opponents by just 3.9 ppg. The Texans are obviously playing with revenge here and while road revenge is not a great scenario to back, this one is different. Houston was absolutely embarrassed on national television and it will be out to make sure that does not happen again. The Texans fall into a great situation as well as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (115) Houston Texans |
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01-13-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons -1 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 143 h 33 m | Show | |
This is the only playoff game this week where there was not a regular season meeting between the two teams. I played against Seattle last week and I am playing against the Seahawks again this week. Washington jumped ahead 14-0 so you have to give Seattle credit for not backing down and coming all the way back to win by 10 points. They can't have all of the credit though as the injury to Robert Griffin III changed the whole dynamic of the game and we was clearly a different player after the first quarter.
Atlanta had the week and I think this is arguably the one team that benefitted the most from the first round bye. Denver, New England and San Francisco were all coming off wins while the Falcons were coming off a loss in their regular season finale, one that meant nothing by the way. They didn't exactly finish strong as they were outgained in four of their last five games so the time off was more of a good thing than anything else. At 7-1, the Falcons have a big edge at home coming off that loss. The Seahawks are riding a six-game winning streak so they clearly have the momentum edge but I will go back to the reason for playing against them last week. Again, the RGIII injury no doubt made their comeback a lot easier so while it was a road win, it was one with an asterisk. A huge run got them into the playoffs but the schedule had a lot to do with that. Seattle got out of Chicago with a win in overtime but then it played four straight games to end the season none of which were a true road game. The Falcons have been ousted in their first game of the playoff in each of the last two season so they will be playing with a chip on their should to prove the doubters wrong. Seattle is playing some of the best football in the league but it will be tough to win again traveling cross-country for a second straight week. Also, we play on home teams off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (114) Atlanta Falcons |
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01-12-13 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | 31-45 | Loss | -103 | 126 h 41 m | Show | |
This is the third instance of a team playing with revenge from a regular season loss. I do not think revenge plays more of a motivational factor in these games but what it does is provide us with possible value based on the public seeing a repeat performance plus it also provides the revenging team the ability to make adjustments. The Packers lost the opening game this season at home against San Francisco but this is a much different team now and definitely has a chance at the outright win.
The San Francisco defense gets all of the pub and for good reason as it is ranked third overall and second in points allowed. Looking at the schedule though shows the 49ers played a lot of horrible offenses and those are the ones they obviously kept in check. This is the toughest offense they have seen since Week 15 against the Patriots and while they won, the 49ers allowed 520 total yards. The Packers put up only 326 yards last week but it took its foot off the gas very early. The difference here is on the other side of the ball with the San Francisco offense against the Packers defense. Green Bay took a lot of heat for poor play on defense but it finished a respectable 11th both overall and points allowed. Things are different now though as the Packers are the healthiest they have been in a very long time. Clay Matthews is back to 100 percent as is Sam Shields but most important is the return of Charles Woodson who came back last week and adds a whole new dynamic to the defense. Colin Kaepernick will be making his first ever playoff start and I think he could be in for a long day as a turnover or two will make the ultimate difference. Look for the Packers to make him beat them through the air and I do not see that happening. The Packers have a revenge situation on their side as well as we play on road teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (111) Green Bay Packers |
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01-12-13 | Baltimore Ravens +9.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 122 h 13 m | Show |
With the favorites going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Wild Card round, we are seeing a lot of value on some underdogs this week and this is one of them. It is no secret that the public loves this Denver team and why not? The Broncos closed on a perfect 4-0 ATS run while going 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games. Therefore, this line is inflated. Denver was a double-digit favorite in three of its last four games and while it covered all three of those, they were against teams not even sniffing the playoffs.
The kneejerk reaction for Baltimore would be it is in for an emotional letdown after taking out Indianapolis in what was Ray Lewis' last home game. If it was the regular season and the Ravens were not going to the playoffs then I will buy that but there is not going to be any sort of a letdown here in the postseason. Baltimore has proven that it can win on the road in the playoffs, going 5-3 straight up and ATS the last four years and not once has it seen a line this big. Denver went into Baltimore and smacked around the Ravens earlier this season but the spot was a horrible one for Ravens when looking back. I was on Baltimore in that game but that was more of a play against the Broncos which were riding an eight-game winning streak. Baltimore was coming off two overtime games, where it went 1-1, as well as a game against Pittsburgh sandwiched in-between which it lost by three points. The situation is a lot different this week. The Broncos have eclipsed 30 points in each of their last three games and with the week off, some of that momentum has been lost. Additionally, they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring 30 points or more in three straight games. Baltimore falls into a phenomenal league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-07-13 | Alabama v. Notre Dame +10 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -125 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
Not a whole lot needs to be said for this matchup as information has been thrown around for five weeks now. Looking at power rankings alone, Alabama and Notre Dame are separated by just two points with the Irish playing a slightly tougher schedule. Notre Dame went 5-0 against top 50 teams while Alabama went 3-1 against teams ranked within the top 50. Alabama is just 1-3 ATS this season when laying less than two touchdowns while Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS this season away from home.
Both of these defenses are extremely powerful and it is not going to be easy for the offenses to get a lot going. Notre Dame has surrendered only 10.3 ppg which is the fewest in the country thanks to their huge front four and athletic linebacking core. Alabama has a huge offensive line that opened a lot of holes for a potent running attack but the Irish have only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season. That is no accident and we saw how Alabama struggled against an LSU defense that is not as good. On the other side, the outcome will have a lot to do how quarterback Everett Golson plays for the Irish. He was not very good early in the season as his lack of experience was glaring but he has developed into a very solid quarterback. Over his last five games he tallied 239 yards of offense per game or more while tossing seven touchdowns and only two interceptions and in four of those games rushed for a combined 224 yards. The Alabama defense is tough but Golson is the type of player than can give it fits. Because of the SEC dominance in this particular bowl game over the years, Alabama is given a sizable edge. But is the SEC really as good this season as people are playing it out to be? A lot of the teams have looked extremely overrated and while bowl games can be considered a tough comparison, it does show the possibility of Alabama being slightly overrated as well. With these teams beating each other up during conference season, it can be argued that the problems were not as evident then as they are now. We have the advantage of taking a sizable underdog that certainly has a shot at winning this game outright. That gives us two areas to win as an Irish victory means an obvious cover but they can also lose the game and we can still win in a close game. Alabama has to win going away to cover the ticket and this is the type of matchup that I just do not see happening. The Crimson Tide were dominant in this game last season and many will fall back on that but this year's Alabama version is not as strong. 10* (270) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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01-06-13 | Arkansas State v. Kent State +3.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
This is the final bowl game before the BCS Championship and while the names do not look good, we are dealing with two solid programs. Kent St. had a chance to play in a BCS bowl game but lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship so motivation could be an issue. However, considering that the Golden Flashes have never won a bowl game of any kind, motivation will be no issue at all. Kent St. is 15-3 over its last 18 games so even with the loss to the Huskies, confidence is apparent.
Arkansas St. is riding a seven-game winning streak but with this being its first game since December 1st, any momentum has been lost. The Red Wolves won the Sun Belt Conference for a second straight season so this is a very solid team with a very solid offense and a pretty decent defense. They defeated just two teams with a winning record though and while they too will be in search of their first ever bowl victory, they are at a huge disadvantage in the coaching category. Kent St. head coach Darrell Hazell accepted the head coaching job at Purdue but unlike most coaches that leave immediately to go recruit and start their new position, Hazell is actually sticking around to coach him team. He wanted the opportunity to try to lead Kent St. to its first-ever bowl victory as this is the school's first postseason appearance since losing to Tampa in the Tangerine Bowl in 1972. The players and the captains said it was very important to have this staff involved. Arkansas St. meanwhile is going to be without head coach Gus Malzahn who took over at Auburn and left right away. Defensive coordinator John Thompson will serve as Arkansas St.'s interim coach and this is nothing new to the Red Wolves. Last season they headed to this bowl game with an interim coach after Hugh Freeze departed to coach Mississippi, and they lost 38-20 to Northern Illinois. Sire, the Red Wolves can use that as motivation but it certainly is a distraction. These teams are considered evenly matched and the power rankings prove it yet the Golden Flashes are significant underdogs here. That should suit them just fine though as they are 4-1-1 ATS this season when getting points while going 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. Arkansas St. meanwhile is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games against teams averaging 4.75 ypc or better and the rushing game will be what carries the Golden Flashes to victory. 10* (268) Kent St. Golden Flashes |
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01-06-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +3 | 24-14 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 35 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in football right now as they have won five straight games but there is no way they should be favored in this spot. A huge run got them into the playoffs but the schedule had a lot to do with that. Seattle got out of Chicago with a win in overtime but then it played four straight games to end the season none of which were a true road game. Sure, a game against the Bills was in Toronto but it was hardly a partisan Bills crowd.
While Seattle is hot, the Redskins are even hotter so it is surprising they are getting a field goal on their home field. Washington has won seven straight games with only Denver having a longer winning streak heading into the playoffs so it is clearly playing with a ton of momentum and confidence. The Redskins finished just 5-3 at home but after a 1-3 start, they won their last four games at home. They are a very similar make up to their opponent with no big disadvantages anywhere on the field. The Seahawks are known for a strong defense but I am not 100 percent sold they have hold up in the playoffs. First off, Seattle is 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed per carry at 4.5 and that is not a good thing to be banking on as Washington has been a great rushing team this season. The Redskins are first in the league in rushing offense and second in rushing yards per carry at 5.2. I do not see them being stopped on the ground at all and that will set up the passing game and for RGIII to make things happen. Seattle is very similar on offense with a strong rushing attack and a rookie quarterback under center. The Seahawks are third in the NFL in rushing offense as Marshawn Lynch is a beast but the Redskins possess a very underrated rushing defense as they are allowing 4.2 ypc and overall they are ranked fifth in rushing defense. The passing defense is not nearly as good and as solid of a rookie season Russell Wilson is having, he struggles on the road. He has a 123.6 passer rating at home and it drops to 83.1 on the highway. The Seahawks are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Washington meanwhile is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home this season and 6-2 ATS in its last six games following two or more consecutive wins. Also, the Redskins have a great situation on their side as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 9* (108) Washington Redskins |
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01-06-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 122 h 37 m | Show |
Indianapolis has been a great story this season from the huge turnaround from last season to the inspired play backing the coaching situation. Now we are at a different level and while the run was a fantastic one, this is where it comes to an end. The Colts are an extremely young team with nine starters having no playoff experience whatsoever and that is a pretty big thing at this level. Indianapolis has only three wins against teams with a winning record as it played the easiest schedule in the NFL.
Baltimore lost its regular season finale at Cincinnati but it wasn't because it was outplayed. The Ravens got the starters some work before pulling them to avoid injuries and while there is no momentum heading into the postseason, it should not be an issue here. They went 1-4 in their final five games and that will deter some people to back them but more importantly in my opinion is the fact that they outgained their last two opponents by 347 and 163 yards. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck had a great rookie season as he tossed 23 touchdowns and threw for 4,374 yards but it is hard to ignore the fact that he threw 18 interceptions and his 76.5 passer rating was seventh worst among qualified starters. The Ravens defense was not up to their usual dominating standards this season but they still finished 12th in scoring defense. Baltimore finished +9 in turnover margin, third in the AFC, while its 28 takeaways were fifth in the conference. The Colts have had the ability to win close games this season but they are -12 in turnover margin and at -30 points in scoring margin, they are the only playoff team that is in the negative. While the offense has shown some good signs, it is too inconsistent to try and make any sort of run. The Colts have failed to reach 300 total yards in any of their last four games. On the other side, the defense finished the regular season ranked 26th overall and 21st in points allowed. Baltimore will have no issues moving the ball. The Ravens have a great situation on their side as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +10 ppg. Additionally, Baltimore is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games versus teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl. A great story comes to an end in Baltimore on Sunday. 10* (106) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-05-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -4 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
Same time. Same matchup. Same result? I definitely believe so. The media is saying the Texans are done and after losing three of their last four games to knock themselves out of a first round bye, the public has its doubts are well and rightfully so. This is one of the most talented teams in the league on both sides of the ball and if they come out with the fire and passion that they possessed early in the season, they are going to be a tough out but obviously they need to pick it up right here.
The Bengals have been here before, literally. Cincinnati played in Houston in the Wild Card round last year and it got hammered 31-10 and that was against a banged up Texans team that was missing some key players, most notably quarterback Matt Schaub. The Bengals will be better off this year with their experience but I still do not think they have what it takes to make noise in the postseason. They beat only two playoff teams this year, Washington when it had yet to hit its stride, and Baltimore in Week 17 when the Ravens rested their starters most of the game. The gameplan should be an easy one for Houston as it needs to run the ball and should not have a problem doing so. The Texans last three losses produced an average of just 78.7 ypg on the ground and it is important to note that they are 7-0 in games this season in which Arian Foster rushed for 100-plus yards and 5-4 in the others. The Bengals rushing defense is average and while they went through a stretch of five games of not allowing 100 yards, they allowed 206 yards last week against Baltimore. The Houston defense has been ravaged with injuries this season, notably the linebacking corps but the unit is pretty healthy coming into the playoffs. Overall, the Texans are seventh in total defense and ninth in scoring defense and despite the loss to the Colts, they allowed just 265 total yards. The Bengals are ranked 22nd in total offense and that is pretty weak considering they played the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season. I do not see them having much success here. Houston falls into a solid league-wide system where we play on home teams that are coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. Also, the Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record while the Bengals are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game. 10* (102) Houston Texans |
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01-04-13 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma +3.5 | Top | 41-13 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
Oklahoma has obviously had a very good season at 10-2 yet it is an underdog here for the first time this season. All of the hype that Texas A&M has received since defeating Alabama and then along with the Johnny Manziel Heisman Trophy win has put this team in the public spotlight like it hasn't been before and that is playing a big factor in this line. As is the fact that the Aggies come from the top conference in the nation but the SEC has not shown much so far in the postseason.
Oklahoma's speed and efficiency on offense will be a factor in deciding the winner because the Sooners have the athletes capable of running a fast-tempo scheme throughout the game's four quarters, a facet that developed over the course of the season. Against Oklahoma St., Oklahoma ran 103 offensive plays that eventually wore down the Cowboys defense late in the fourth quarter and a repeat of that is possible here since the Aggies did not see many offenses like this in the SEC. Stopping the Aggies offense is top priority. If the Sooners can initiate a good pass rush while simultaneously taking away freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel's wide receivers, Oklahoma could very easily handcuff Texas A&M's potent scoring machine. In the two games Texas A&M lost this season, Manziel had just 87 rushing yards. He has to be able to move around to open up the offense so keeping him in the pocket will be top priority. It is easier said than done but the Sooners is more than capable. The problem the Sooners have run into this season is trying to find a way to integrate the running game into the offense. In their two losses, they combined to run for just 103 yards but the Aggies rushing defense is fairly average. On the other side, coaching could be a concern as Texas A&M running backs coach Clarence McKinney will call the offensive plays in place of former offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who accepted the head coaching job at Texas Tech. Oklahoma falls into a solid situation where we play on teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 57-28 ATS (67.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Texas A&M is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games away from home after gaining 525 or more yards in its previous game while the Sooners are 12-3 ATS in the 15 games under head coach Bob Stoops when the line is between +3 and -3. 10* (264) Oklahoma Sooners |
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01-03-13 | Kansas State +8.5 v. Oregon | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This was pegged to be the BCS Championship with just a couple weeks remaining in the regular season but both Kansas St. and Oregon lost on the same Saturday and there was not enough time to recover. This isn't the most glamorous matchup but it is an intriguing one where two different styles of football will collide in Arizona. The Oregon offense is one of the best in the nation as it is fourth overall and second in scoring so stopping the Ducks will be impossible right? Wrong. Kansas St. is a type of team that Oregon has struggled against in the last few years in its system as Auburn in 2011, LSU in 2011 and Stanford in 2012 all bring a similar physical defense that the Wildcats possess. Kansas St. is not going to back down and will have no problem going up and hitting Oregon in the mouth. For the season, the Wildcats scored an astounding 143 points off turnovers, forging a plus-21 margin to lead the nation. That trait, coupled with their uncanny knack for protecting the football, often enabled Kansas St. to win some games when they were outgained. As for that offense, Kansas St. plans to control the clock with a solid running game and it will obviously want to keep Oregon off the field as much as possible. The Ducks defense is average as they are 47th overall and 26th in scoring and while the Wildcats are not flashy, they still average 40.7 ppg which is 10th most in the country. Kansas St. also has a significant edge in special teams, notable the kickoff and punt returns as it leads the nation in both categories. Two other big factors will be in play as Kansas St,. quarterback is 100 percent healthy once again and the other factor is coaching. Wildcats Bill Snyder is one of the best in the business while all of the Chip Kelly talk to the NFL is a huge distraction and one that should have waited until after this game had passed. Kansas St. is 6-0 ATS against teams averaging 200 rushing ypg while going 12-3 ATS against teams averaging 31 or more ppg over the last two seasons. 10* (261) Kansas St. Wildcats
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01-01-13 | Northern Illinois +13.5 v. Florida State | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
There have been many complaints about Northern Illinois being in a BCS Bowl as it is felt the Huskies are taking the spot of a legitimate team that deserves to be here. Personally, I think Northern Illinois does in fact belong simply because it is here based on the guidelines that were put into place years ago and it will be out to prove the doubters wrong. The Huskies lost just one game all season long which was a season opening loss against Iowa by just one point at Soldier Field in Chicago. Since then, Northern Illinois has run off 12 straight victories and while schedule has been considered a cakewalk, winning is winning and not many teams can pull off a streak like this. The Seminoles took the ACC Championship in a win over Georgia Tech and while it was considered a solid season, this team is way overvalued. Florida St. was a double-digit favorite in all but one game this season and overall it was just 3-9 ATS which included going 0-5 ATS away from home. Florida St. didn't exactly play a daunting schedule as it faced just two teams from the top 50 and went 1-1 in those games sop asking this team again to win by a large margin is simply too much. Chad Clarey was named the head coach for Northern Illinois after Dave Doeren took the same job at North Carolina St. The Huskies are one of the best running teams in the country as they have rushed for 3,252 yards, averaging an awesome 250.2 ypg which is ninth in the nation. The Seminoles defense is awesome but this will be one of their biggest tests of the season for sure. Florida St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while the Huskies are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 9* (257) Northern Illinois Huskies
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01-01-13 | Nebraska v. Georgia -8 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
Both Georgia and Nebraska come into this game having lost their respective conference championship games so the team that can recover the most will have the big advantage here. That team will be Georgia. The Bulldogs lost a heartbreaker against Alabama in the SEC Championship and while a lot more was on the line than was on the line for Nebraska in its Big Ten Championship loss, I feel they will be plenty motivated here. One big reason is their losses in their last two bowl games including a loss against another Big Ten opponent Michigan St. last season in overtime. The story here will be the defense for Georgia that got manhandled against the Crimson Tide as they allowed 350 yards rushing. Georgia came into that game having allowed 302 and 306 rushing yards in its previous two games and the task will not be easy against a tough Nebraska rushing offense. However, this defense looked gassed at the end of the season and the time off to recharge is huge. The Huskers are coming off an embarrassing 70-31 loss against Wisconsin and the game was a lot worse than the score shows. The defense got exposed and will get exposed again against Aaron Murray who will be the toughest quarterback they have seen this year. Also exposed was an offensive line that the Badgers were able to control throughout the game as most of the yardage came in garbage time. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while going 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after two straight games of committing one or fewer turnovers. From top to bottom, Georgia is clearly the better team and it will show on the field come Tuesday. 10* (254) Georgia Bulldogs
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01-01-13 | Northwestern v. Mississippi State +2 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Northwestern was a covering machine this year as the Wildcats are 11-1 against the number and that is no doubt playing into this line. They won nine games this year but had only one big win down the stretch which was a three-point win over Michigan St. in the second to last game of the season. Northwestern did have quality wins over Syracuse and Vanderbilt early in the season but that was before those teams hit their stride so those are not a very good indication of the competition. Motivation will not be lacking for Northwestern for sure as the Wildcats have lost nine consecutive bowl games since their lone victory, which came in the 1949 Rose Bowl. Mississippi St. started the season 7-0 but finished 1-4 down the stretch and the schedule had a lot to do with that. The Bulldogs lost three straight games after the undefeated start but those games were against Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU so there is nothing to be ashamed of there. A loss in the season finale against Mississippi in the Egg Bowl can be considered a bad loss for sure and Mississippi St. will be out for some retribution after that. The Bulldogs defense crumbled down the stretch but they feel that the time off has allowed them to heal, both physically and mentally. The challenge will be tough but this is one of the most talented defenses around and as long as they are communicating, they will be tough to break. The SEC was as powerful as always while the Big Ten was in a down year so the fact that the Wildcats are favorites here is a surprise. While Northwestern has been a huge moneymaker, it is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after a win by 20 or more points while Mississippi St. is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 20 or more points in the first half in two straight games. 10* (250) Mississippi St. Bulldogs
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12-31-12 | Clemson v. LSU -6 | 25-24 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
This is one of the best non-BCS bowl matchups of the postseason and should everything pan out, it should be one of the most exciting. I don't expect that to happen however. Clemson has lost just twice this season but they came against another SEC team, South Carolina, and Florida St., which is built like a team from the SEC. The loss against the Gamecocks was due to the Tigers inability to match up physically and they should be at an even bigger disadvantage here. Clemson managed only 165 total yards in the final three quarters against South Carolina's 12th ranked defense. Now Clemson has to square off against the nation's seventh ranked defense and the offense, even as potent as it is, will struggle. On the other side, Clemson is 73rd in total defense and LSU counters with an offense that has been scrutinized but has performed well against non-physical stop units. After an inconsistent and turnover-filled first two-thirds of the season, LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger had three standout games in a row against Alabama, Mississippi St. and Mississippi before a rough game against rival Arkansas. The running game is the strength though and if that gets going, the offense won't be held back. South Carolina was able to control the clock against Clemson by running the ball effectively and with the Tigers 62nd in the country and eighth in the ACC in rushing defense, LSU will be effective as well. LSU is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games away from home after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game while going 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games away from home after getting outgained by 125 or more yards last game. Meanwhile Clemson is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The LSU defense will be the difference maker here. 9* (246) LSU Tigers
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12-31-12 | Iowa State v. Tulsa +1.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
Tulsa won the C-USA Championship with a victory in overtime against Central Florida which punched its ticket into the Liberty Bowl. At 10-3, the Golden Hurricane have a chance to match their most win in school history so motivation will certainly not be an issue. Also adding to the motivation for them is the fact they opened the season with a loss at Iowa St. so they are getting a rare chance at same season revenge. Tulsa went on to win seven straight games after that and its only two losses the rest of the way were by four points at Arkansas and eight points at SMU, which was right after claiming the C-USA West so it can be forgiven for that. Iowa had a pretty solid season but after starting off 4-1, the Cyclones lost five of their final seven games. They did have a big win over Baylor but the other win came against 1-11 Kansas. To their credit, they did lose to some very good teams down the stretch but there are too many issues going on right now. They are starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback and while San Richardson did look good against West Virginia and Kansas, those teams have the 118th and 114th pass defenses in the country respectively. A big factor in that win earlier this season for Iowa St. was that running back Shontrelle Johnson ran for a career-high 120 yards and a touchdown. However Johnson didn't gain more than 73 yards in any of his next 11 games and is out for this one after injuring his right knee in a practice earlier this month. Additionally, Iowa St. will be without three-time All-Big XII linebacker and captain Jake Knott. Tulsa has a great rushing offense and the passing game will flourish against the 113th ranked Cyclones passing defense. Look for Tulsa to get its revenge in a game it should be favored in but is not. 10* (244) Tulsa Golden Hurricane
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12-31-12 | Georgia Tech +7.5 v. USC | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
Two disappointing teams square off in the Sun Bowl as USC, which came in with National Championship aspirations, sitting at 7-5 and Georgia Tech, which was expected to contend in the ACC, actually coming in with a losing record. The Trojans are arguably the biggest disappointment in all of college football and even after an early loss against Stanford, they were still talking BCS Bowl and a National Championship. Both goals went away toward the end of the season as USC dropped four of its last five games. Georgia Tech is the only team in a bowl game this season with as losing record but because it played 13 games that included the ACC Championship, it was able to get to the six-win mark for eligibility. Going out on a high note will be important, especially returning to the place they lost last year. Besides falling 30-27 to Utah a season ago in the same stadium, they have lost seven straight bowl games so it will be the seniors that will be out trying to avoid a 0-4 bowl record. For the Trojans, quarterback Matt Barkley is out while receiver Marqise Lee is listed as questionable so the offense will be far from full strength. Redshirt freshman Max Wittek will be under center in Barkley's place after making his first career start against Notre Dame, going 14 of 23 for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He could be in more trouble if Lee cannot go. On the other side, the Yellow Jackets triple option attack will be hard to stop. They ran for over 4,000 yards while six players ran for more than 400 yards and three for more than 600 yards so the balance is hard to contain. USC is going bowling for the first time in three years because of NCAA sanctions but this is not where the Trojans wanted to be so motivation should very well be lacking. 10* (241) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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12-30-12 | Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots -10 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
The Patriots played a horrible game at home against San Francisco two weeks ago and instead of coming out and rebounding huge last week, they struggled again against the Jaguars. New England won but if was hardly a good effort and the Patriots know that they need a big game heading into the playoffs. New England is still in line for the top seed in the AFC but it needs both Houston and Denver to lose. The Texans play early so New England will know its fate but that doesn't mean it will quit should Houston win as a first round bye would still be a possibility should Denver lose. That scenario isn't likely but as stated, the Patriots are going to play to win and win big to get their momentum and confidence back in order. The Dolphins are not going to give in either as they have won two straight games but those both came at home against the lowly Jaguars and Bills. They have lost three straight road games and overall have been outgained in nine of their last 11 games and 11 of 16 on the season. They hung tough against New England in the first meeting and we are actually getting line value on the Patriots as they were favored by eight points in Miami and are favored by only two more points here. New England is 18-6 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season under head coach Bill Belichick so it will again play full out for four quarters. 10* (304) New England Patriots
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12-30-12 | St. Louis Rams +11 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
Seattle is playing at a very high level right now so this will not be a very popular pick but the majority of mine in the NFL aren't popular anyway. The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win over San Francisco to keep their divisional hopes alive but those hopes are slim. Seattle needs to win and have San Francisco to lost at home against Arizona and that is pretty unlikely so we could see Seattle resting some players as the game progresses. It was the third straight blowout victory for the Seahawks as they have outscored their opponents 150-30 but keeping this up is extremely difficult. Because of the big wins, the line has gone through the roof and that is proven by the fact that Seattle was laying the exact same number against the Cardinals at home three weeks ago and the Rams cannot be compared to Arizona. St. Louis has closed strong and while it will not make the playoffs, finishing with a winning record is the goal right now. The Rams are 4--1 over their last five games and they have not lost on the road since mid-October at Miami, going 3-0-1 since then. This is a revenge game for Seattle but that is not a big factor and it actually goes against the Seahawks as we play against home favorites that are revenging a loss after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (331) St. Louis Rams
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12-30-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Tennessee Titans -4 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
I was waiting to catch the latest injury news in this game and the news is not good for Jacksonville while it is much better for Tennessee. The Jaguars have an injury list that is loaded with players on the IR with wide receiver Cecil Shorts the latest to go on. The Jaguars five players from the defense that are listed as probable and while that means they will most likely go, they are not close to 100 percent on that side of the ball. Coming off a gallant effort against the Patriots, the defense is in for a long day Sunday. For Tennessee, it was feared Chris Johnson may not be able to go but he has been upgraded to probable after getting hurt in Green Bay last week. The Titans got pummeled against the Packers and I expect a big effort to close out the season to springboard into next year as this is a talented team but nothing went right this year. Tennessee will also be out for revenge as it was one of just two teams that the Jaguars defeated this season, and the only one since the middle of September. The Titans were embarrassed last week and players and coaches were quoted afterward that they have one game left to get it right and this is the perfect opponent for that to happen. Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 14 points or fewer in two straight games while the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. 9* (312) Tennessee Titans
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12-29-12 | TCU v. Michigan State +3 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 58 m | Show |
I'm a little surprised at this line. I know the Big Ten has had a down season and every team from the conference is an underdog in the bowl games but I feel this is one of those that is wrong. Michigan St. had a down season as it finished 6-6 but that record should be so much better. With the exception of Notre Dame, every one of their losses was by four points or fewer including four by a field goal of less. The 6-6 record is playing into this line but this team is one of the best 6-6 teams in the country.
TCU started the season strong once again at 4-0 but then quarterback Casey Pachall was thrown off the team after being arrested. The Horned Frogs went on the lose their next game at home against Iowa St. and could not get anything going consistently the rest of the season. They had a signature win at Texas on Thanksgiving but could not carry the momentum as they lost the season finale at home against Oklahoma. Like Michigan St., they were better on the road than at home. Instead of focusing on what might have been, the Spartans are using this final game as a springboard into the 2013 season. Head coach Mark Dantonio has always emphasized winning the final game of the season and was able to last season by beating Georgia in the Outback Bowl. Michigan St. is playing the roll of the rushing dogs as well. TCU was last in the Big XII with 3.9 ypc - and the Horned Frogs may have a tough time moving the ball against Michigan St. which was fourth in total defense, allowing only 274.5 ypg. Michigan St. is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home against teams with a winning record while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 225 ypg or less in two straight games. The Horned Frogs meanwhile are 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. 10* (238) Michigan St. Spartans |
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12-29-12 | Oregon State -3 v. Texas | 27-31 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 25 m | Show | |
This game is taking place in Texas which is probably a big edge for the Longhorns but it is not enough to make a difference here. This is a big game for Oregon St. with quite a bit on the line. A 10-win season, the first since 2006 and just the second since 2000, would virtually guarantee a Top 25 ranking for Oregon St. in the preseason polls next August considering the significant number of impact players returning. A win over a traditional powerhouse program will also benefit the Beavers going forward.
After a four-game winning streak following its humbling blowout loss against Oklahoma, the Longhorns closed the season with two straight losses and the psyche of this team remains in question. Texas is 8-4 but a third consecutive season without a BCS bowl appearance had some questioning coach Mack Brown's job security. The Longhorns are just 21-16 since making it to the BCS Championship in 2010 which clearly is not very good. The ending to the season is a major concern. Both teams are involved in quarterback issues but the Beavers is more based on injuries while the Texas situation is more about ineffectiveness. Oregon St. head coach Mike Riley named Cody Vaz as his starter just prior to the team traveling to San Antonio. Texas meanwhile goes with David Ash who started the first 11 games but was benched in favor of Case McCoy during the team's Thanksgiving loss to TCU. It will be a challenge as the Beavers intercepted 19 passes this year, tied for sixth-most in the country. Home state or not, I like the favorite here with more on the line heading toward the future. Oregon St. is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after gaining 300 or more passing yards last game while Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. Additionally, the Longhorns are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 9* (235) Oregon St. Beavers |
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12-29-12 | Navy +14 v. Arizona State | Top | 28-62 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 57 m | Show |
It was a tough start to the season for Navy but the Midshipmen closed it out by winning seven of eight, capped by claiming the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy against Army. They are obviously peaking at the right time and the time off should not be an issue of losing momentum as their regular season finale came just three weeks ago while Arizona St. has been off for an additional 15 days which is a huge difference. Navy has not won a bowl game since 2009 so there is a lot of motivation here.
The Sun Devils closed the season with two straight wins including a victory over rival Arizona after entering the fourth quarter down by 10 points. Prior to that, Arizona St. lost four in a row so it was definitely a big way to end the season but we are unsure if it can keep it going. Again, the additional time off is a huge disadvantage and it will be argued that the Sun Devils benefitted to prepare for the Navy running game, they actually did not know the opponent until much later. Navy and its triple-option offense hope to take advantage of a Sun Devils defense which allowed four of its final six opponents to rush for more than 200 yards. The Midshipmen are sixth in the nation in rushing offense with 275.6 ypg. Overall, the Sun Devils are 72nd in the country in rushing defense including 10th in the Pac 12. they possess one of the best passing defense in the country but it won't matter here and a big reason for that is they got gashed in the running game. Navy falls into a great situation as we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1992. Navy is the epitome of a bowl rushing dog and we take advantage of a very generous line. 10* (231) Navy Midshipmen |
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12-28-12 | Minnesota +13 v. Texas Tech | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Texas Tech is a sizable favorite here but a lot has changed between the time this line came out and gametime yet the line has not moved much at all. Gone is head coach Tommy Tuberville who took the head coaching job at Cincinnati. Preparing for a game without the coach that brought you there is always tough but at least the Red Raiders were in good hands with offensive coordinator Neal Brown leading the team. That is until bolted to Kentucky two days later to take the same position.
Because of the defections, offensive line coach Chris Thomsen will take over as interim coach and receivers coach Sonny Cumbie will handle duties as offensive coordinator. Granted they know the systems and players but they are far from having the ability to lead in a bowl game with so little time to prepare. Making matters worse, Red Raiders starting defensive back Cornelius Douglas, backup linebacker Chris Payne and backup defensive tackle Leon Mackey won't play in the bowl game due to rules infractions. Neither team comes in with a lot of momentum which is a wash as Minnesota closed 2-6 in its last eight games while Texas Tech finished 1-4 in its last five games. This is the first bowl game for the Gophers since 2009 and they will be going for their first bowl win since 2004 so there is definitely motivation in that regard. What is Texas Tech playing for? Maybe they want to prove to their coaches that they can win without them but laying a number this big is asking too much for the Red Raiders. These teams met in the 2006 Insight Bowl and while that game has no bearing on this contest, the Minnesota players have been made aware of what happened. The Golden Gophers held a 38-7 third-quarter lead before allowing the Red Raiders to rally and win 44-41 in overtime, which is the biggest bowl comeback in Division I history. Revenge is certainly not the angle to be used but it is an interesting dynamic that will have the players definitely be focused for the sake of the program. Minnesota did not have much production offense down the stretch but it should be in for a big day here. The Red Raiders only forced 10 turnovers, third-worst in the FBS and didn't have one in their final five games while the defense allowed at least 52 points in four of their last six games, finishing 90th in scoring defense overall. Playing on double-digit underdogs prior to the big New Years bowls and beyond has always been a great angle and the situation here only makes it stronger. 10* (227) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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12-28-12 | Rutgers v. Virginia Tech -2 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
To say it was a disappointing season at Virginia Tech would be an understatement. After eight straight season's of double-digit wins and coming into this year as favorites in the ACC Coastal Division, the Hokies slipped to a 6-6 record. They had to scramble just to get bowl eligible as the Hokies had to win their final two games to get the needed six victories and those were far from easy. The Hokies went just 3-9 ATS this season including 0-6 ATS away from home so the contrarian in me is going with the value.
I wasn't sold on Rutgers coming into the season and I'm not sold on the Scarlet Knights at the end of the season. They started the season 7-0 but only one of those wins came against another bowl team which was Syracuse and they were outgained by the Orange by 181 yards so they never should have won that game. Rutgers outgained opponents by an average of under 20 ypg while the Hokies outgained opponents by an average of 47.2 ypg and that was against a schedule that was nearly twice as difficult. Rutgers has won its last five bowl games, including a 27-13 victory over Iowa St. in last year's Pinstripe Bowl but that was under a different coaching staff which makes big differences this time of year. Conversely, the Hokies do have the momentum of closing the regular season with two straight wins and facing the worst season in two decades, pride will be on the line here as none of these players want to end with a less than .500 record. Coaching will come into play in that regard. Rutgers quietly put together the fourth ranked scoring defense in the nation, allowing just 14.25 ppg although it definitely leaked some oil down the stretch. The Hokies hope to take advantage of a Scarlet Knights rushing defense that allowed 149.2 ypg in their last six games after allowing just 60.8 ypg in their first six games. Conversely, the Hokies have yielded an average of only 82.7 rushing ypg in the last six games since allowing 339 rushing yards to North Carolina. This rushing matchup will be important. The Hokies fall into a solid situation based on the rushing game as we play on teams that are averaging between 140 and 190 ypg rushing going up against teams averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing, after allowing two or less ypc rushing last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Hokies are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. We catch a good number that Virginia Tech should be able to cover easily. 9* (226) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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12-28-12 | Ohio v. Louisiana Monroe -7 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
The Bobcats come in with little momentum but have a lot of motivation. Ohio looked to be a BCS buster early in the season as it jumped out to a 7-0 start including a win over Penn St. but then things turned around in a hurry. The Bobcats were upset at Miami Ohio which was the start of four losses in their final five games to finish 8-4. The Bobcats played here two years ago against Troy and were pounded 48-21 so they are obviously looking for a better outcome this time around so motivation is in play.
The Warhawks opened the season with a win against Arkansas and a three-point loss to Auburn in overtime. Those games put them on the map but after the two opponents finished a combined 7-17, some of the luster was lost. UL-Monroe would go on to finish at 6-2 in the Sun Belt Conference, good for a three-way tie for second place but had only two wins over teams with a winning record and one of those was a one-point victory over Western Kentucky in overtime. Still, this is a pretty potent team. The big issue for the Ohio collapse was injuries as it lost 13 starters at some point down the stretch. The Bobcats are more healthy thanks to the time off but the offensive line is still a mess with three players out and another still banged up. This is a problem for their running game which started strong but faltered down the stretch. UL-Monroe has a strong rushing defense to begin with and now it should be even better off. The Warhawks have advantages in both offensive ypc and defensive ypc which are always big. UL-Monroe is playing in its first ever bowl game so there will be no lack of motivation here either. The Warhawks went 7-2 down the stretch and it is very important to note that quarterback Kolton Browning was knocked out early in the loss against UL-Lafayette and missed the next game against Arkansas St., the other loss. Browning because the Sun Belt Conference Play of the Year which shows how important he is to the team and now healthy again, he will be a contributor here. The Warhawks also get the advantage of playing this game near its home as Shreveport is a mere 97 miles on Interstate 20 from the Warhawks campus in Monroe. Ohio is just 1-8 ATS in its nine games under head coach Frank Solich after scoring 14 points or fewer in its last game while the Warhawks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Unlike its conference mate Western Kentucky, look for UL-Monroe to take advantage of its first ever bowl game. 10* (224) UL-Monroe Warhawks |
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12-27-12 | Baylor v. UCLA Bruins -3 | 49-26 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 50 m | Show | |
The Bruins were riding a five-game winning streak prior to their regular season finale against Stanford but a blowout loss at home set up a rematch the following week in the Pac 12 Championship. While UCLA ended up losing again to the Cardinal, it was a much closer game and the Bruins actually outgained Stanford by 136 total yards. At 9-4, the Bruins are already guaranteed to finish with their most wins since 2005 when they went 10-2 so it has been a resounding success under first year head coach Jim Mora, Jr.
The Bears opened the season with three straight wins but a loss at West Virginia was the start of a four-game losing streak, all of which came against teams going bowling as well. Baylor responded by winning four of its last five games so it comes in with a ton of momentum but it should be noted that three of those wins came at home where Baylor finished 5-1 overall. The Bears are last in the nation in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 56.12 percent of the time. UCLA gave up an average of 31.5 ppg over its last four games and overall is just 72nd in total defense. Those are certainly not great numbers coming into this game but the one huge thing they have going for them is they are seventh in the nation in sacks, averaging 3.3 per game. Getting pressure on the quarterback is exactly what the Bruins need to do to slow down the offense. UCLA has had some success against up-tempo spread attacks this season, posting victories over Houston, Arizona St., Arizona and Washington. It will be up to the offense to try and keep up with the Bears and that should not be a problem. The Bruins have a dynamic offense and the combination of quarterback Brett Hundley and running back Johnathan Franklin should test a shaky Baylor defense. Overall, UCLA is 20th in total offense and 28th in scoring offense while Baylor's defense is one of the worst in the nation, checking in at 119th overall and 115th in points allowed. The Bruins should not be stopped very often at all. While both offenses bring a lot of potency to the table, this game will be decided by the better defense and the one that will make the most plays. Considering Baylor is ranked 89th or worse in every major defensive category, the Bruins have a huge edge on that side of the ball. UCLA has been bet up to -3 in most places as of Wednesday afternoon but that is still a very reasonable number and while not the home team, the Bruins should have much more fan support in California. 9* (222) UCLA Bruins |
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12-27-12 | Cincinnati v. Duke +7 | Top | 48-34 | Loss | -101 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
The Blue Devils closed the season with four straight losses but the good news is that Duke will have had a month to forget about that horrible ending and focus on its first bowl game in nearly two decades. The Blue Devils are excited about playing this game just over two hours from their campus and there will be two forms of motivation here. Duke will be out to avoid a losing season and not head into next year on a five-game losing streak while at the same time, win the programs first bowl game since 1960.
Cincinnati claimed a share of the Big East title with a 5-2 record and it is 9-3 overall with a chance to win 10 games for the fifth time in six years. All three losses were by a touchdown or less including a setback at home against Rutgers that ended the chance of an outright championship. The Bearcats closed with two wins to end the regular season but has only one win against a winning team over the last three months of the season. In addition, the psyche of this team is in question. Cincinnati is one of a number of teams that will be playing a bowl without the coach that got it there. Butch Jones turned down an offer from Colorado amid speculation that he was staying with the Bearcats only to find out the next day he was heading to Tennessee. The Bearcats hired Tommy Tuberville away from Texas Tech but defensive line coach Steve Stripling will coach the team, as announced following Jones' departure. They can rise to the occasion or just play it out and I expect the latter to take place. The Blue Devils offense will have to perform at a high level to stay in this one and while they struggled down the stretch, rumor has it that some new wrinkles have been added for this game. Cincinnati is 41st in total defense but 12th in scoring defense thanks to an opportunistic defense that had 24 takeaways. Duke gave it up only 17 times though so taking care of the ball will again obviously be important. The Bearcats are at a disadvantage in the passing game, ranked 63rd on offense and 72nd on defense. This number has come down quite a bit from its opener as early sharp money came pouring in on the Blue Devils and justifiably so. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games away from home against teams allowing 34 or more ppg and Duke has a big coaching edge in David Cutcliffe as his teams are 22-9 ATS away from home against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Duke is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 450 or more yards last game. 10* (220) Duke Blue Devils |
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12-27-12 | Bowling Green +7.5 v. San Jose State | 20-29 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 39 m | Show | |
San Jose St. and Bowling Green both had incredible turn around seasons and the Spartans are the more high-profile team in this matchup. After winning only eight games the three previous season, San Jose St. surpassed that total 10 games into this year and won 10 games overall, its most wins since 2006 when it went 9-4 which was also the last year it was in a bowl game. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer will be the team's interim coach for this game and it will be interesting to see how the players respond.
Bowling Green finished second in the MAC East behind Kent St. with a 6-2 record and 8-4 overall. The Falcons won seven of their last eight games but they were still not guaranteed a bowl invite and they made it here based on the fact not enough ACC teams qualified for the postseason. It was a very successful season for Bowling Green as it was coming off consecutive losing campaigns and the Falcons have not won a bowl game since 2004 so there will be plenty to play for here. Bowling Green does have one intangible in its favor and that is the location of this game. "We really hope all of Falcon nation, as many people as possible will come out and support us and hopefully make it a home-field advantage for us," Falcons head coach Dave Clawson said. "It's a much easier trip from Bowling Green, Ohio, than San Jose, California." The Spartans are one of the few teams from the west coast that had to travel east which certainly hurts the fan support. While the Spartans have edges in most statistical categories, that may not be a big advantage here as motivation will go a long way in deciding this one. I feel that gives the underdog a significant advantage. While the Falcons played a light schedule, it can be argued that their numbers are somewhat skewed but it is hard to argue that the defense is still not solid. Bowling Green's defense was ranked seventh overall and ninth in points allowed in the nation. That is potent no matter who it played. One big aspect the Falcons have an edge in is in the rushing game and they have a big situation in their favor. We play on teams that are averaging between 140 and 190 ypg rushing going up against teams averaging between 100 and 140 rushing ypg, after allowing two or less rushing ypc last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing nine points or less last game. 9* (217) Bowling Green Falcons |
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12-26-12 | Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 18 m | Show |
Central Michigan opened up 2-1 which included a big upset (at the time, not anymore) at Iowa but then it dropped four straight, all by double digits, and five of its next six games to fall to 3-6. The Chippewas can thank the schedule makers as they finished with three cupcakes to close out the season and were able to win them all even though they were outgained in two of those. The final game against Massachusetts was the only game this season that Central Michigan outgained its opponent and that was only by 27 total yards.
Western Kentucky made a significant hire with Bobby Petrino taking over as head coach although defensive coordinator Lance Guidry was named interim coach and will coach the team in the bowl game. This is the first bowl game in the history of the program so there will certainly be no lack of motivation on the Hilltoppers sideline especially considering they were 7-5 last year and were passed over on a bowl. They will be out to prove something tonight while adding some history to the program. The interim coach situation for the Hilltoppers is not a bad one though and is of no concern here. Guidry is making his second appearance as an interim coach in a bowl after leading Miami (Ohio) to a 34-21 victory in the 2011 GoDaddy. com Bowl over Middle Tennessee St. following Mike Haywood's departure to coach Pittsburgh. The challenge is to get the Hilltoppers playing like they did early in the season as a 1-3 wasn't ideal although they did end the season with that victory. The Chippewas do not possess a great offense and have a below average defense. They are ranked 67th in total offense and 94th in total defense, both of which are good for seventh in the 14-team MAC. The Hilltoppers offense is slightly better but it is their defense that could be the difference as they come in 23rd in total defense which was tops in the Sun Belt Conference. Western Kentucky led the conference with 31 sacks and was 12th among FBS teams with 7.42 tackles for loss per game. At 125th in the Sagarin Ratings, the Chippewas are the lowest-ranked team in a bowl game and that is pretty bad considering there are 21 teams from the FCS ranked ahead of them. Central Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning record while Western Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in its last nine game against teams allowing 31 or more ppg. Also, the Hilltoppers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games away from home coming off a home game. 10* (216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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12-24-12 | SMU v. Fresno State -11.5 | Top | 43-10 | Loss | -101 | 32 h 6 m | Show |
I always take a look at the underdogs in bowls with lines this big but I cannot justify a play on SMU and Fresno St. is favored this big for a reason. The Bulldogs started slow with a 2-2 record but went on a 7-1 to end the season with the lone loss coming against Boise St. by 10 points on the road. The other losses were at Oregon and at Tulsa which came by just a single point. The Bulldogs should be pretty motivated to win as they have lost three straight bowl games so the seniors will want to go out winners.
Despite being bowl eligible, I'm not sold on this SMU team. When SMU won, it won big and when it lost, it lost big as well as five of its six wins were by 17 points or more while four of its six losses were by 22 or more points. Those five big wins came against four non-bowl teams and one FCS team while the four big losses were all against teams playing in a bowl game. There is motivation for SMU as they could be the first teams in the history of the program to win back-to-back bowl games. The Bulldogs have edges all over the field. The Bulldogs bring in one of the top offenses in the country as they are ranked 14th overall and 12th in scoring and they really lit it up during their closing five-game winning streak, averaging 47.2 ppg, winning those games by an average of 25.8 ppg. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for 3,742 yards and 36 touchdowns this year, while running back Robbie Rouse topped 1,000 yards for the third consecutive season. This offense will not be stopped by a below average SMU defense. The SMU offense made up for the defense in some cases but it still ranked 93rd in the country and scoring was only better because it is 12th in the nation in turnover margin. Those turnovers will be tough to come by here because Fresno St. finished fifth in the nation in turnover margin. On the other side, the Bulldogs are 19th in total defense and 27th in scoring defense as they allowed 20 points or fewer seven times including 10 points or less three times. This is a homecoming for SMU head coach June Jones who is back at Aloha Stadium for the first time since 2007 when he coached Hawaii but that won't matter here. Fresno St. is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a favorite and 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 or more points this season. Meanwhile SMU is 3-12 in its last 15 games away from home coming off an outright win as an underdog while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven games away from home after a conference win by six point or less as an underdog. 10* (214) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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12-23-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks +1 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 81 h 58 m | Show |
I won with New England two weeks ago as it easily took care of Houston on national television. Based on that and the whole public to see, I went against the Patriots and took the 49ers and they were able to take out New England, again on national television. Now San Francisco is riding the overinflated public side angle and it is playing its second straight difficult road game in one of the most difficult venues in the league. The 49ers are a great team but not in a great position.
The Seahawks have won three straight games to climb right into the playoff picture and the divisional race for that matter. Seattle is 9-5 and it has the best record in the NFC for non-divisional leaders so getting that first Wild Card spot is looking good as it can clinch with a win. Seattle and Atlanta are the only two remaining undefeated home teams in the league heading into this week. The last home loss for the Seahawks came last season in the final home game and it was against the 49ers so it looks to be payback time. Normally, playing on a team like Seattle is a no-no as it is coming off consecutive blowout wins where it put up a ton of points and that typically is a play against situation if anything. There is a big difference here though. Those teams coming off big win tend to get overvalued next time out but that isn't the case here as the Seahawks have moved to a home underdog in some spots. As a rule, we would have to lay down a lot of points to grab Seattle but instead we are getting value this week. While the scores the past two weeks have appeared to be somewhat an anomaly, the Seahawks were trending upward in scoring even before the two blowouts. Over the past eight weeks, the Seahawks are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 33.4 ppg, trailing only New England, and they have scored 21 or more points in seven straight games after doing so only twice in their first seven games. The offense might have an edge again as the 49ers defense was on the field for 94 plays against New England. While San Francisco's defense gets most of the pub, Seattle is ranked third in total defense and second in scoring defense so the unit is just a solid and is that much better at home. The Seahawks fall into a great situation where we play on home teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Seattle Seahawks |
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12-23-12 | NY Giants -1 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -125 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides but more so for the Giants. New York is coming off that blowout loss in Atlanta so it needs to right the ship right now if it wants to have any chance of defending its Super Bowl title. The Giants are in a three-way tie for first place in the NFL East and a five-way tie for the second and final NFC Wild Card spot. Baltimore comes in with the better record but the Giants are the better team and in a good spot to bounce back.
It can be argued that the Ravens are also in a great spot to bounce back following their third straight loss last week against the Broncos. I disagree with that though as this is a very fragile team right now that has actually gotten away with a lot of fortunate breaks. Wins over Kansas City, Dallas and San Diego all could have gone the other way so going 3-0 right there is lucky. The Ravens have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and that is finally starting to come back to haunt them. This is an interesting scenario where we could catch a break based on one of the early games. Should the Steelers defeat Cincinnati at home at 1:00, Baltimore locks up the division and with no chance at a first round bye, it would not be surprising to see the Ravens sit some players for at least part of this game. Obviously we can not make this play based on hoping another team wins but that could only add to the strength. Play it early as the line will likely go up quite a bit if the Steelers are winning comfortably. After starting the season strong, Baltimore has slipped considerably. It is ranked 21st in total offense and 26th in total defense and while the scoring rankings are considerably higher, it is starting to come back more into line. The Giants have been hit or miss for the last few games but with the exception of last week, the offense has been more consistent as they are 10th overall and sixth in scoring. They have not been held to single-digits in scoring since 2009 and have not been shutout since the 2005 playoffs. That being said, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while Baltimore is now 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after one or more consecutive losses. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 360 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being close to a touchdown per game. 10* (121) New York Giants |
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12-23-12 | Washington Redskins v. Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
The Redskins have won and covered five straight games so they are a very public team right now which is being reflected in this number. Prior to the bye week, Washington was sitting at 3-6 and pretty much left for dead but now it is right back in the playoff hunt and that is a tough situation for a team this young. The Redskins started the winning streak with a blowout win over the Eagles at home as a 3.5-point chalk and now they are a bigger favorite on the road which screams value the other way.
Philadelphia snapped an eight-game losing streak against Tampa Bay two weeks ago but could not carry that into last Thursday as the Eagles lost at home against the Bengals. It was a game they could have won as they took a lead into halftime but second half turnovers did them in. Those have been an issue all season long as we all know but we cannot let that get in the way going forward. There is nothing more than the Eagles would like than to play spoiler against a hated division rival. Another interesting dynamic is that of Eagles head coach Andy Reid. This will be his final home game in Philadelphia and there will likely be a mixed reaction to his last home game. The players though have not given up on him and they will be out to make his last home game a memorable one. "A lot of people ask, 'What do you have left to play for?'," defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins said. "Playing against the Redskins and the Giants in the last two, there's plenty to play for there." Philadelphia struggled with its running game last week against the Bengals as it managed only 42 yards on the ground which came after rushing for only 29 yards the previous week against the Buccaneers. But there is some very good news for the Eagles though as running back LeSean McCoy will start at running back on Sunday in his first game back after missing four games because of a severe concussion. That game was against the Redskins so he too will be out for some retribution. The Eagles are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games coming off a home loss by 21 or more points and that coincides with the coaching aspect of this game as they are 7-0 ATS in this situation under Reid. The Eagles also fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after a loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1983. 9* (118) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-23-12 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 6-17 | Loss | -121 | 74 h 35 m | Show |
Carolina has been very impressive the last two weeks in its wins over Atlanta and San Diego but that makes this the perfect time to go against the Panthers. It is extremely difficult to justify a team that is 5-9 on the season to be favored over a team that is just one game worse by this many points. I have been on the Panthers quite a few times this season but not when they have been favored as they have lost four of five games outright when laying points and this is by far the largest they have put down this season.
Oakland is coming off an impressive win over Kansas City and while beating the Chiefs is far from quality, it gave this team some much needed confidence and momentum to try and close the season strong. The victory snapped a six-game losing skid for Oakland and the big factor was that it was able to run the ball which is a key to the Raiders success. They have not done very well on the east coast but considering this is the same line they got in Baltimore and Cincinnati, two playoff teams, the value is definitely there. The Raiders rushed for a season high 203 yards against Kansas City and it was just the fifth time all season they have surpassed even 100 yards on the ground. They are 3-2 in those games but one of those losses was at Atlanta where they lost by just a field goal. Carolina's rushing defense has been great the last two weeks but it will be put to the test here with a healthy Darren McFadden which is huge for Oakland. The Panthers have allowed over 120 yards rushing in eight of their 14 games this season. A lot of the talk now is about the resurgent Cam Newton and in all fairness, he has been exceptional over his last five games. Facing the Raiders would think to keep that going but they are coming off their best game of the season and the defense can feed off that effort. Carolina is coming off two 30-point efforts but it is still ranked 22nd in scoring offense and it hasn't been consistent enough to keep rolling like this. With a game at New Orleans to close out the season, look for a possible lookahead here as well. The Raiders fall into a great contrarian situation here as well as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 83-46 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. Carolina is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games while the Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. Too many points to pass up here. 10* (105) Oakland Raiders |
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12-23-12 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
I lost playing against Dallas last week but I will again fade the Cowboys here. They were fortunate to get out of last week with a win in overtime as they got a gift wrapped interception from Ben Roethlisberger and converted that into the game winning field goal. Dallas is now tied with the Giants and Redskins for first place in the NFC East so this is no doubt a must win situation and as we all know, must wins situations do not always translate into wins with the pressure involved.
We did win on New Orleans last week as the Saints shook off two poor performances, or should say Drew Brees shook off two poor performances, and easily defeated the Buccaneers. Obviously the playoffs are a very slim option for the Saints and we saw what happened when they were able to play loose. New Orleans has won the yardage battle in each of the last three games and closing the season with a big finish is a big goal right now. But the playoffs are still a slight possibility so winning is still top priority. New Orleans needs a lot of help to get it but it really isn't very complicated. The Saints need to win this week and against Carolina next week. On top of that the Saints need Dallas to lose its final game, the Rams to lose at least once, and the Vikings, Giants, and Bears all to lose their final two games. Sure it is not very likely but with a chance still there, we will be getting a big performance out of the entire team. This includes both offense and defense, the latter showing a ton of improvement. The Saints have now gone four straight games without allowing 400 yards on defense after allowing over 400 yards in each of their first 10 games. The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last seven and five of their last nine games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a three-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season. December has let them down before and I see it happening again. New Orleans is +10 points in scoring margin and could easily be 8-6, whereas Dallas is -11 points in scoring margin and is pretty fortunate to be where it is right now. Play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against teams allowing a 61 percent or higher completion percentage while Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games in that same dynamic. 10* (115) New Orleans Saints |
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12-22-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5 | Top | 31-18 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 13 m | Show |
The Falcons are now a win away from clinching a first round bye in the playoffs after dismantling the Giants last Sunday. While the win was impressive, it can be chalked up as the Giants losing the game as they had opportunities to keep the game close early but missed a short third down conversion which led to a missed field goal and then missed a short fourth down conversion in the second quarter. This is obviously a big one for Atlanta but this is a big number to be putting down in this spot.
The Lions season has unraveled pretty quickly as after a 4-4 start, they have dropped six straight games and you can blame turnovers. Last week in their 28-point loss to the Cardinals, they had four turnovers including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. During the six-game losing streak, Detroit outgained four opponents by a total of 286 yards while it was outgained in the two other games by only 43 total yards so it is clearly playing better than that winless record indicates. Motivation plays a big part in handicapping this time of year and while Atlanta has it, we have to make sure Detroit has it as well. "Everybody in the league is the same way," Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said. "I dare you to find a team in the NFL that will say we're playing for next year or stuff like that. There's too much urgency in this league. There's too much at stake every single week for individuals as players, for coaches, for organizations. There's too much every single week to strive to win for." Despite allowing 38 points last week, the Lions defense was excellent once again as it allowed just 196 total yards. Overall, the defense is ranked 12th in the NFL while the offense is ranked second and those rankings usually do not fit a team that is 4-10. Both of those rankings are better than those of the Falcons so staying on the right side of the turnovers is what needs to be done for Detroit. Heading back home after a two-game roadtrip and on the national stage will have the Lions ready. Detroit falls into two solid situations. We play on home underdogs or pickems coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 75-35 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off a loss by 28 or more points while Atlanta is 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10* (102) Detroit Lions |
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12-22-12 | East Carolina v. Louisiana-Lafayette -4.5 | Top | 34-43 | Win | 100 | 96 h 55 m | Show |
East Carolina finished in a tie with UCF in the C-USA East Division but lost the tiebreaker after losing to the Knights 40-20. It should be noted that those seven conference wins all came against teams not playing in a bowl game and its only non-conference win came against Appalachian St. of the FCS. The Pirates lost its other three non-conference games by a combined score of 131-44 and those three opponents are all in a bowl game as well.
UL-Lafayette finished in a tie for second place in the Sun Belt Conference with a 6-2 record with one of those losses coming against conference champion Arkansas St. by 23 points. Its only win against a team with a winning conference record was a victory at rival UL-Monroe but you cannot blame them on the weakness of the conference. In non-conference action, the Cajuns got thumped at Oklahoma St. but lost by just a touchdown at Florida on a blocked punt return for a score with only 13 seconds remaining. Both offenses are very potent but I like the balance of the Cajuns and not just the balance between run and pass but the balance between the players. Quarterback Terrance Broadway has been outstanding over the second half and he along with running back Alonzo Harris combined for over 1,400 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns. The receiving corps is led by Harry Peoples with 61 receptions for 774 yards and five touchdowns. However, three other receivers have over 500 yards and at least three touchdowns. Additionally, Lafayette is very efficient when it gets into the redzone as it is scoring at a 94 percent clip which is second in the nation only to Louisville. East Carolina is 84th in the nation in scoring defense and 77th in total defense so it won't be showing much resistance. The Pirates allowed 40 or more points on four different occasions and again, this was against a pretty weak schedule. On the other side, the Cajuns allow more yards but allow fewer points which is big here. The Cajuns won here last season over San Diego St. on a last second field goal as six-point underdogs but now they take on the role of favorites by that same amount. They fall into a great situation also as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 40-13 ATS (75.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The favorite brings it home here. 10* (210) La-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns |
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12-21-12 | Ball State +7 v. Central Florida | 17-38 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 32 m | Show | |
Ball St. is one of the hotter teams in the country as it won its final six games of the regular season. The Cardinals were bowl eligible last season but were bypassed so they may be playing with a chip on their shoulder this year. Ball St. was picked by some to finish at the bottom of the MAC West but proved a lot of people wrong while playing the second toughest schedule in the MAC. The Cardinals three losses this year have come against Kent St., Northern Illinois and Clemson, which have a combined five losses.
Central Florida is getting the love from the linesmakers as this is pretty close to a home game for the Knights as Tropicana Field is only 100 miles away from campus. Even with that, I don't think they deserve to be a touchdown, and in some cases more, favorite against a quality team. The close to home field did not help in 2009 when the night played here and got whacked by Rutgers 45-24. Past results do not predict future outcomes like this but it just shows location can mean little. I'd rather take the hotter team against an opponent that is coming off a devastating loss anyway. The Knights lost the C-USA Championship to Tulsa in overtime and it was a tough one to take. "It's very disappointing, to come that far, have it down in overtime, miss the field goal and have them score a touchdown," running back Latavius Murray said. Unlike the Cardinals, Central Florida played a soft schedule as it had only two wins against teams playing in a bowl game. There was talk before this week that the Cardinals would have to turn to freshman Kyle Kamman at quarterback after losing starter Keith Wenning and his backup Kelly Page as Wenning was hurt against Ohio and Page was hurt against Miami Ohio in the regular season finale. The good news though is both are now listed as probable which is big break for the Ball St. offense. The Cardinals defense is a concern for sure but the offense is loaded enough to keep up with the Knights. Ball St. had a much better record against the number, going 9-3 ATS compared to just 6-7 ATS for Central Florida. Also, the Knights are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game while Ball St. is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games away from home against teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing ypc. Additionally, Ball St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a conference win by a touchdown or less. 9* (207) Ball St. Cardinals |
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12-20-12 | BYU -3 v. San Diego State | Top | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 56 h 9 m | Show |
San Diego St. claimed a share of the MWC title thanks to a seven-game winning streak to end the season and it caught a very good break in its bowl game as it is playing very close to home. This means great fan support and limited distractions even though the players are not staying in their normal digs as they are shacking up in a hotel similar to BYU. Playing on their home field is more good than bad but the Aztecs have some disadvantages that go beyond that.
BYU enters this game with a 7.5 record but it easily could have been better. Losses to Utah, Boise St. and Notre Dame were by a combined seven points and all of those came on the road so the Cougars are arguably a lot better than their record shows. They win with defense as BYU brings in the nation's third best defense, allowing only 266.3 ypg. The Aztecs have scored a lot but the total offense is ranked only 57th in the nation so they could have some issues against the Cougars stop unit. The big mystery here is the quarterback situation for BYU. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall said there's no change to the status of senior quarterback Riley Nelson, who has been the Cougars starter this season, but who's also nursing a rib injury. With Nelson still questionable for Thursday's game, backup James Lark has gotten more reps in practice. Lark started in Nelson's place in the Cougar's final game against New Mexico, and threw for 384 yards and six touchdowns in the win. While we may not know who is starting just yet, the Aztecs are getting as well which makes their preparation a little more difficult. Mendenhall said he will make a decision on his starter on game day so San Diego St. has to prepare for two different quarterbacks who are pretty different in their quarterbacking styles. The Aztecs defense has been spotty all season as they are 43rd overall and 44th in scoring and BYU caught fire near the end of the season, scoring 41, 52 and 50 points in three of its last four games. BYU has a great situation on its side as we play on teams away from home in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1992. Additionally, BYU is 8-0 ATS against teams allowing 58 percent completions or more while the Aztecs are 9-21 ATS against teams allowing 3.25 or less ypc. 10* (205) BYU Cougars |
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12-17-12 | NY Jets +2 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 10-14 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
We won with the Jets last Sunday against Jacksonville and we will back them again here. The two-game winning streak has put them back in the hunt for the playoffs and with a very favorable schedule to close out, they are in excellent shape but will obviously still need some help along the way. The public is still fading this team which is just fine as it gives us good value with the number in what is a must win spot. Normally, cases like that lead to inflated numbers but that is not the case here.
Tennessee lost its third straight game last week at Indianapolis and it has dropped five of its last six games to fall out of the playoff picture. The Titans will no doubt try and bring their A game here with this game being on national television but the problem is they don't have much of an A game. They have struggled on both sides of the ball but turnovers remain the biggest factor in their struggles as their 26 giveaways are tied for third most in the AFC. The Jets are no stranger to turnovers either but Tennessee has just 16 takeaways with is fifth fewest in the conference. New York has a chance to get the offense going once again as the titans are ranked 27th in the NFL in total defense and 31st in points allowed. I expected a bigger game from Mark Sanchez last week but we didn't get it but now he faces a unit ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 24th in passing ypa allowed. The return of Braylon Edwards could be a huge boost as he is expected to play right away. New York still possesses a stout defense as it is ranked eighth overall and while the rushing defense has been a weakness, the Titans have not been able to do much of late. Running back Chris Johnson looked like he was finally out of his slump but he has been held to 175 yards on 53 carries (3.3 ypc) while failing to reach the end zone during the Titans' three-game slide. New York's defense has been excellent the past two weeks against the NFL's two worst offenses. The Jets fall into a great league-wide situation here as we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 370 or more total ypg going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 total ypg. This situation is 51-26 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 2-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and is 5-23-1 ATS in its last 29 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. The Jets playoff hopes stay alive. 10* (331) New York Jets |
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12-16-12 | San Francisco 49ers +6 v. New England Patriots | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 86 h 5 m | Show |
The Patriots were three-point favorites over the 49ers prior to the game against Houston and now the line has increased significantly. It's a pretty safe reason why. New England looked dominant against Houston on Monday night and it will be a very heavy bet team again this week. As of Wednesday morning, over two-thirds of the action is on the Patriots according to offshore reports and while we won with them against the Texans, we will be going against them here as value has clearly hit the side of the 49ers.
San Francisco is coming off a win over Miami on Sunday and now it heads east for what has turned into a big game for both sides. The Patriots are still in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC as they own wins over both Denver and Houston, the two teams that are fighting for the top spot. On the other side, this is far from meaningless for the 49ers as they have a game at Seattle next week so should they lose here, they could be just a half-game up going into next week with the division on the line. While the Patriots were able to shred through the Houston defense on Monday, things will not be as easy here. The Texans have struggled this season against good passing teams but San Francisco is much different. Houston is 19th against the pass while San Francisco is second in that category as well as first in points allowed, ypa passing, and rushing touchdowns allowed while ranked second in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense. New England will have a tough time here. The 49ers offense is not as strong but it doesn't need to be when the defense is playing at such a high level and we will see that in this spotlight game. San Francisco is 12th in total offense and 13th in scoring offense so it is an above average unit and will face a Patriots defense that has improved in points allowed over the last few games but are still ranked 26th in total defense. The 49ers will have success running the ball as New England has allowed 100 or more yards rushing in seven straight games. San Francisco is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 375 ypg or more, 9-1 ATS against teams allowing 7.0 or more ypa passing and 14-4 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Also, we play on teams in the second half of the season allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (329) San Francisco 49ers |
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12-16-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers -1 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -117 | 122 h 15 m | Show |
The Steelers lost a big game last week against the Chargers and it was one they could have done without. Pittsburgh is now tied with the Bengals for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC with the Jets just one game back so now it is dealing with an absolute must win scenario. The good news is that the Steelers final two games are at home against the Bengals and Browns but neither of those games are gimmies anymore. Expect a big bounceback effort from Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Dallas played a very courageous game in Cincinnati last week following the tragedy that took place the previous morning. The Cowboys rallied late for the victory and while a playoff push is a necessity, this is not going to be an easy spot. Similar to the Chiefs two weeks ago when they came together in the midst of a tragedy and won and then laid an egg the following week, I can see the same happening here as the emotions of what transpired is too much to overcome the following week. After a four-game winning streak, the Steelers have dropped three of its last four games but they outgained their opponent in each of those games. They have been outgained only twice all season and on the year, they are outgaining opponents by 79.4 ypg so they are definitely playing better than their record indicated. The difference? Turnovers. Pittsburgh has not won the turnover battle since Week Five against the Eagles as they have lost the turnover battle six times and tied it three times in the last nine games. The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last six and five of their last eight games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a two-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season, which they will be striving for this week. The offense gained just 288 total yards against the Bengals last week and now they face a Steelers defense that is ranked first in the NFL, yielding just 262.4 ypg and have to go on without leading receiver Dez Bryant. The Steelers opened as underdogs and were quickly bet up to favorites with early money. It is definitely the right move and coaching will be a big factor in this game as Mike Tomlin is clearly better than Jason Garrett. Case in point, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss while the Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win. That is based on preparation in the situation and the Steelers once again will have the significant edge. 10* (325) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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12-16-12 | Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals +6 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 5 m | Show |
Arizona got embarrassed last Sunday in Seattle 58-0 and after starting the season 4-0, the Cardinals have dropped their last nine games and put head coach Ken Whisenhunt on the hot seat. Not many people will be touching the Cardinals this week after getting outgained by 339 total yards but that is exactly why we will be on them because it sets up the typical 'bounce' angle in the NFL as well as provide significant line value. The number here is an overreaction to that blowout loss.
The overreaction is proven by the fact that thee is no way Detroit should be favored no the road by this many points over any team. Sure the talent is there but the Lions do not know how to win at this point as they have lost five straight games including the last three by a single possession. Coming off three straight home games followed by a game at rival Green Bay where they have not won in over two decades, this team that has no hopes for the playoffs has no interest in this game whatsoever. This game reminds me a lot of the Tennessee game at New England back in 2009. The Titans were pounded 59-0 by the Patriots to fall to 0-6 and Tennessee came back the following week to win at home over Jacksonville by 17 points. Obviously this game cannot predict any future outcomes but it gives an example of what players are capable of doing in this league after getting shown up, and badly for that matter. Egos go a long way in this game and the Cardinals do no want theirs bruised again. As far as the matchup itself goes, the Lions played one of their best defensive games of the season but we can thank the weather partly for that. This is a solid defense that is ranked 13th in the NFL in total defense but they still allow a ton of points as they are 26th in scoring. Arizona has a great opportunity to bust out on offense, something that has not happened in a while. The Detroit offense is potent as we all know but Arizona is a respectable 12th in total defense and after last week, that unit will be ready to play. The offense for Arizona is in a great spot as it is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while the Lions are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 17 ppg or less. Also we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (324) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-16-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3 | 21-13 | Loss | -108 | 119 h 41 m | Show | |
We won by playing against the Bears last week and now we will be taking them in this spot. Chicago was a three-point divisional road favorite and now it goes to a three-point divisional home underdog in the span of one week. Granted, the Bears are not playing very good right now while the Packers may be hitting their stride but the Packers going from a five-point home favorite in the first meeting to a three-point road favorite here is ludicrous. The Bears show up in a must win situation.
The Packers won at home against Detroit last week despite getting outgained by 98 yards but they were able to win the turnover battle. Green Bay has won seven of its last eight games with the one loss being that horrendous defeat in New York which happened to be its last home game. This is not the same dominating team we are accustomed to as the Packers have been outgained in four of their last six games and on the season they are getting outgained by an average of 6.0 ypg. The loss of Brian Urlacher for the Bears defense is a big one no doubt but now that they have played one game without him, the unit should be better off this week with better cohesiveness. Still, this is a defense that is ranked fifth overall and third in points allowed. The problem has been stopping the run as Chicago has allowed 119 or more yards rushing in seven straight games but that is something Green Bay should not be able to take advantage of despite looking good that last two weeks at home. The Packers will get Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews back this week which is a big boost for the defense but that defense has been pretty bad over the last 11 weeks. Chicago's offense isn't going to strike fear in many opponents but the fact Jay Cutler had a poor outing against Minnesota means he is in a good spot to rebound which he has typically done in the past. His last two sub-60 passer ratings this season has turned into blowout Chicago wins in the next game. The Bears have two solid situation on their side here. First we play on home teams that are revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 66-33 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (304) Chicago Bears |
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12-16-12 | Denver Broncos v. Baltimore Ravens +3 | 34-17 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 39 m | Show | |
The Ravens were our only letdown of the NFL weekend as they blew a late lead and allowed Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to tie the game late and eventually win in overtime. Baltimore faces another very difficult task by hosting the Broncos this week and it will have to do so with a new offensive coordinator as Cam Cameron was let go and replaced by Jim Caldwell, promoting him from quarterbacks coach. It was an interesting move considering the Ravens offense has been pretty solid all season.
Denver has become the biggest publicly bet team of the season and considering it has won eight straight games, it should come as no surprise. The Broncos covered four straight prior to losing the money in the next three and then escaped with a cover at Oakland last Thursday night. They have had extra time off for this game which is a big edge but playing on the east coast negates that. Denver has won five in a row on the road but this is definitely the spot to consider that streak coming to an end. Baltimore has now lost two games in a row but it still does have a two-game lead in the AFC North thanks to both the Steelers and Bengals losing last week. The Ravens close against the Giants and Bengals after this so if they are not careful, they could find themselves out of the playoffs all together. They have to protect home field where they are 16-1 in their last 17 home games with the lone loss coming against the Steelers last time out. They haven't lost consecutive home games since 2007. Reports state that Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco had no say in the firing of Cameron but that is likely not true at all. He seemed upset that the Ravens failed to stay with the no-huddle offense, something he seemed so excited about at the beginning of the season and it is a system that he has moved the offense very well in. Expect to see Flacco have more say in the offense now and we will see more no-huddle against Denver and it is perfect timing to keep the stout Broncos defense off balance. The return of Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs will be a huge boost to the defense. It also helps knowing that the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Also, Baltimore is 7-3-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record while Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games coming off back-to-back losses against an opponent off a straight up and ATS win. 9* (316) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-16-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams -2.5 | 36-22 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 32 m | Show | |
We won with Minnesota last week against the Bears and were fortunate in doing so as the defense stepped up with two huge interception returns with one going for a touchdown and the other going down to the Bears five-yard line. The Vikings were outgained by 190 total yards but were able to still win by a touchdown to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. That was the third straight game as well as the sixth in the last seven that Minnesota has been outgained by the opposition.
After winning at home in overtime against San Francisco, many expected the Rams to suffer a letdown in Buffalo but that was not the case as they rallied late to pull out the victory. That was the first time in the last 10 games that St. Louis was able to win after playing the 49ers and at 6-6, the playoffs are still a slight possibility. With the final two games of the season being on the road against Seattle and Tampa Bay, the Rams absolutely have to win this game to protect their home field. The Vikings have relied on running back Adrian Peterson to carry the offense over the last seven games as he is averaging 157.3 ypg over that stretch. To no surprise, quarterback Christian Ponder five quarterback ratings of 58.2 or worse so slowing down Peterson will definitely slow down the offense. The Rams have a defense that can do that. They are ranked 13th in rushing defense but they are allowing just 4.0 ypc which is tied for eighth in the NFL. Expect the unit to continue its strong play here. To add to that point, the Rams are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 4.5 ypc rushing or better. On the other side, Minnesota's defense has not been very good that last couple weeks especially last week as it allowed 438 yards against Chicago which was the Bears highest output since Week Five and second highest all season. The Vikings are 6-1 at home and 1-5 on the road and to no surprise, the home team is 10-2-1 ATS in Minnesota games this season. The Vikings are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a win as a home underdog while going 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games after allowing 400 or more yards in consecutive games. They also fall into a negative league situation as we play against teams coming off a divisional win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-28 AYS (71.1 percent) since 1983. St. Louis keeps the playoff dream alive after a home win Sunday. 9* (310) St. Louis Rams |
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12-16-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -3.5 | Top | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 118 h 27 m | Show |
Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans come into this game riding three-game losing streaks so clearly there is no momentum on either side. While the Buccaneers have lost their three games by a combined 11 points and the Saints have lost their three games by a combined 45 points, it is the latter which has actually been playing better. New Orleans outgained both the Falcons and Giants and are +53.7 ypg in those contests while Tampa Bay was outgained in all three and by an average of 59.3 ypg.
Tampa Bay is still clinging on to a small hope of making the playoffs so this is obviously a must win situation. But coming off that loss against Philadelphia last week is devastating as it looked as though the Buccaneers had the game locked up. Not so much. The defense, which has actually been playing pretty well, fell apart at the worst possible time against the Eagles and now they will be facing Drew Brees who has put up a combined passer rating of 112.7, his worst two-game total since 2007. It is hard to explain the struggles of Brees but it is not lack of effort and you can just see that he is clearly frustrated over his performances. In the last three games, Brees has no touchdowns and six interceptions on 43 attempts of more than 10 yards, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But two of those games were on the road and the other was against the 49ers which have the second best total defense as well as the second best passing defense in the NFL. We will see a rebound here at home. While many will argue it has been the defense on top of it, turnovers have been the Saints undoing the last two games as they have a 9-3 disadvantage in that category. The defense has actually been fairly good as after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of its first 10 games, New Orleans has allowed fewer than 400 yards in each of its last three games, giving up just 350.7 ypg over that stretch. That certainly is not the best average but from what it was, it is a massive improvement. While the Saints playoff hopes are done, expect them to continue to play hard, especially at home as they know the fans deserve it. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg while the Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg. Also, the Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games as favorites of less than a touchdown and 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after gaining 400 or more ypg over their last three games. 10* (308) New Orleans Saints |
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12-15-12 | Toledo v. Utah State -10 | 15-41 | Win | 100 | 122 h 52 m | Show | |
Utah St. went 10-2 and that could have been even better. The Aggies lost at Wisconsin by two points and at BYU by three points while every victory was by at least a touchdown. They come in riding a six-game winning streak so they have plenty of momentum and with the short turnaround from the final game to the bowl game, that momentum should not be lost. Utah St. has a rather large intangible on its side as it played in this bowl last year and lost to Ohio in the final seconds so it will be out to make up for that.
After an eight-game winning streak, the Rockets moved into the top 25 but it was short-lived as they lost to Ball St. at home followed by another loss at Northern Illinois. Toledo closed the season with an unimpressive win over 1-11 Akron so it isn't exactly entering the postseason on a high note. The Rockets were picked as preseason MAC favorites so going from a possible championship to playing a bowl game in Idaho may be a bit of a downer. The Rockets possess an offense that is potent but a defense that is suspect. The Aggies are one of the hotter teams in the country not many people may know about as they have won 15 of their last 18 games going back to last season. They do it with both offense and defense as Utah St. has scored 38 or more points in six straight games while scoring 31 or more points in 9 of 12 on the season. They will go up against a Toledo defense that is ranked 105th in total defense and should show little resistance. The Rockets have allowed an average of 30.4 ppg over their last seven games. The Rockets get it done with offense as they are 28th overall and 39th in scoring but the numbers have slipped recently. They have gone over 500 total yards just once in their last five games after doing so three times in their first seven games. This is where we have the real advantage as Utah St. is ranked 15th overall and eighth in scoring and it will be out to prove that this year was no fluke. The Aggies have allowed single digits in scoring in four of their last seven games. Utah St. is 6-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points this season while going 14-4 ATS in its 18 non-conference game under head coach Gary Andersen. Also, the Aggies are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Rockets meanwhile are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. This will be one of the best defenses they have seen all season and it will show come Saturday. 9* (204) Utah St. Aggies |
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12-15-12 | Nevada +9.5 v. Arizona | Top | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 119 h 44 m | Show |
I won with Nevada in its final game of the regular season against Boise St. and while it was an outright loss for the Wolf Pack, that should help as a motivator heading into their bowl game. This is definitely not the bowl game the Wolf Pack were hoping for but playing against a BCS Conference team should have it motivated along with the fact the 16 seniors want to go out winners. A slow end to the season will steer many away from Nevada but this is the time to jump on as line value is at its peak.
Arizona did not exactly end the regular season very strong as it lost to rival Arizona St. at home. The Wildcats won the yardage battle 522-460 but four turnovers did them in. They are not thrilled about being here as they were hoping for a Sun Bowl or a Las Vegas Bowl bid so motivation, or a lack there of, could play a big factor here. Making things tougher is that there is a quick turnaround with it being the first bowl game and it happens to come right at the end of finals week. Both teams come in with very potent offenses and defenses that have struggled. Nevada is 11th in total offense and 20th in scoring offense and it is a very balanced attack. The Wolf Pack were one of the top rushing teams in the nation as they averaged 262 ypg which is seventh in the nation. The passing game was fairly efficient as well as Nevada is 30th in passing efficiency while quarterback Cody Fajardo is 11th in the nation in total offense so there should be no stopping this unit. Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the country as it is 116th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense and it has been equally bad at stopping the run and the pass so facing a balanced attack is a nightmare scenario. The Wildcats do bring in a stronger offense but Nevada possesses a stronger defense as well so while the offenses have the advantages on both sides, the Wolf Pack have the edge overall as the line is in favor of the underdog when matchups like this take place. Nevada was horrible in the role of favorite this season, going 1-8 ATS but it went a perfect 2-0 ATS as underdogs of a touchdown or more. Arizona meanwhile is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game and this is not a good price as it is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. Also, the Wildcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Motivation plays a key role in this one. 10* (201) Nevada Wolf Pack |
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12-13-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles +3 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -100 | 72 h 22 m | Show |
The Eagles looked dead on Sunday as they trailed the Buccaneers by 11 points but rallied to pull out a much needed win which ended their eight-game losing skid. They easily could have folded then they allowed 21 unanswered points but they did not give up and played hard right to the end and that is a big part of the play here. Obviously the playoffs are out but they gained some renewed confidence and the goal now is to finish strong. Playing with no pressure means playing loose which is always an advantage.
The Bengals are coming off a devastating loss against the Cowboys to fall to 7-6 and now must travel on a short week. Cincinnati had a four-game winning streak prior to the loss and things are not looking very good with the remainder of the schedule as it closes with games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Bengals are still in the mix for grabbing a Wild Card spot but the Sunday loss may have told us that they are not as good as was perceived when they were riding that winning streak. The Eagles won on Sunday despite losing the turnover battle for the 10th time in 13 games this season. The good news is that they only turned it over once but it was the fifth consecutive game that Philadelphia's defense did not have a takeaway and while that is not a good thing, it is one of those streaks that will not last the rest of the season and Cincinnati has given it up 21 times on the year. The Eagles allowed just 314 total yards against Tampa Bay. Offensively, Philadelphia got a great game out of quarterback Nick Foles which was a huge step for the rookie and one that he can build on. He threw for two touchdowns in the final four minutes to overcome that 11-point deficit, finishing with an Eagles' rookie-record 32 completions and 381 yards. The Bengals defense has gone four straight games without allowing 300 yards but playing at that high level is tough to do and playing on the short week makes it even more difficult. The Eagles played on Sunday like we thought they were going to play all season as there was more energy, more hustle and more heart in this game than they've shown for weeks. Now they will be bringing that same energy home where they have not won since September 30th against the Giants. The Eagles go from an eight-point road underdog to a three-point home underdog so they are definitely on the value side with this number. Expect to see another very inspired effort on Thursday. 10* (302) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-10-12 | Houston Texans v. New England Patriots -3 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 81 h 13 m | Show |
This is arguably the best Monday night matchup of the season thus far and this one will go a long way in playoff seedings. Both Houston and New England clinched playoff berths last week, the Patriots clinching the division and the Texans now one win away from the division title. This game obviously means a lot to both sides so motivation will not be an issue but the situation is much better for New England as it heads home after a road win while Houston is playing its third straight road contest.
The Patriots are riding a six-game winning streak and while the opposition has been average, they will be out to prove something here. Their last real quality win came here against Denver and that was the last time the Broncos lost so that definitely says something. The three losses for New England this year all could have been wins as they lost those games by a combined four points. All three losses came down to the final minute with two of those decided on last second field goals. The Texans share the best record in the NFL with Atlanta as a loss to Green Bay is the only blemish on the card. That game can definitely tell us something as Houston struggled against a potent offense in the Packers and it also struggled against the Lions on Thanksgiving as it snuck out a win there. The Texans will be facing another strong offense here as the Patriot lead the NFL in both total offense and scoring offense and the banged up defense could be in for another long night. While the Patriots offense is the best, the defense is far from it as it is ranked 26th in total defense. But the defense thrives on turnovers as its 33 takeaways easily lead the AFC and their +24 turnover difference is by far the best in football. That has limited opposing teams from scoring much as New England is a respectable 14th in scoring defense. Houston's offense is no joke but gaining 1,154 yards and 77 points in consecutive games against Jacksonville and Detroit has skewed the numbers. Coming off a divisional win is no letdown for New England as it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a divisional win and the Patriots have covered four straight Monday night games. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. The Patriots prove they are still the team to beat in the AFC. 10* (134) New England Patriots |
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12-09-12 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Giants -4.5 | 27-52 | Win | 100 | 91 h 14 m | Show | |
I played against the Giants Monday night and they were beaten by the Redskins as favorites. They come in as favorites once again but they are back home and in desperate need of a victory. This game sets up very similar to their last game at home when they were coming off a road loss at Cincinnati only to completely dominate the Packers. We may not see the same kind of domination here but I expect nothing short of a comfortable win to keep their game lead in the NFC East.
The Saints are coming off a loss in Atlanta despite outgaining the Falcons by 153 total yards. Drew Brees had one of his worst games ever as he tossed five interceptions and his touchdown streak came to an end. While many will picture him coming back here, I don't see it happening. He is a great competitor but the loss to the Falcons pretty much knocked them out of playoff contention and that will be difficult to rebound from. The Saints are just 2-4 on the road this year. I will give credit to the Saints defense as they played their best game of the season last week and it wasn't even close as they allowed just 283 total yards. Their previous low was 375 yards which happened to come the week before against San Francisco. As improved as it looks, I can't see the unit continuing to play at such a high level with nothing really on the line anymore. After putting up 390 yards and 38 points against Green Bay, the Giants again put up 390 yards last week but managed only 16 points. New York will have its hands full in the secondary here but they have been playing exceptional. They have allowed 201 yards or fewer passing in four straight games and they have allowed only one 300-yard passer and was Tony Romo in Week Eight. The key here is getting to Brees and that should not be a problem. The Giants are tied for 10th in the NFL with 30 sacks and while the protection has been good for Brees this year, they are in a vulnerable spot this week. The Giants have covered five of their last seven games following a loss including three of four this year and under Tom Coughlin, they are 22-9 ATS in 31 games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. New York falls into an extraordinary situation as well as we play on home teams coming off a road loss by three points or less, with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 on the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 8* (128) New York Giants |
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12-09-12 | Philadelphia Eagles +9 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 88 h 54 m | Show | |
The Eagles got a fortunate cover last week against Dallas thanks to a long punt return for a touchdown in the final minute. We would have been better off if they had lost by the 11 points but we are still getting significant value here considering a loss is a loss. Those losses have been piling up as Philadelphia has dropped its last eight games but this is the time to bite as the Eagles have been overvalued most of the season but that has suddenly done a reversal the last two weeks.
Tampa Bay had won four straight games before dropping its last two against two of the best teams in the league in Atlanta and Denver. The Buccaneers have been outgained in three of their last four games and they have been outgained by an average of 31.4 ppg overall. Sitting at 6-6, they are in desperate need of a win to remain in the playoff hunt but don't think the linesmakers don't know this with the number they have put up in this one. Tampa Bay has been favored by a touchdown or more only twice since 2009. The Eagles offense has struggled to score points which is no secret but even the hodgepodge unit should have success here. Tampa Bay has allowed 26 ppg over its last seven games and a unit that is ranked 19th in points allowed on the season is ranked 30th in total defense. The Buccaneers at one point somehow managed to allow a ton of yards without getting torched on the scoreboard but that is no longer the case as they are getting it bad now in both areas. Offensively, the Buccaneers have taken a step back as quarterback Josh Freeman has come under more pressure from opposing defenses and running back Doug Martin has found fewer holes to run through up front. This is due to a makeshift offensive line that is missing Pro Bowl guards David Joseph and Carl Nicks who are both in I-R. the key will be for the Eagles to get a takeaway, any takeaway, as it has gone four straight games without one. The Buccaneers can be a willing participant. The Eagles have numerous situations favoring them this week with one of the more powerful ones being where we play on road underdogs or pickems coming off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Buccaneers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record. 8* (119) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-09-12 | Chicago Bears v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 88 h 52 m | Show | |
The Bears are coming off a tough home loss in overtime against Seattle and while many are going to predict a bounceback here, I don't think it is going to happen. They have dropped three of their last four games and while they have come against some very formidable competition, we are starting to see the flaws of this team. Chicago is now without linebacker Brian Urlacher for at least three weeks and that is a devastating blow to a defense that got gashed last week.
The Vikings are back home after two straight road game, both of which resulted in losses. They are on a worse skid right now than that Bears having lost four of their last five games but three of those losses were on the road and playing here in a revenge spot sets up well. These teams just played in Chicago three weeks ago and the Bears were 6.5-point home favorites and now the Bears are favored again on the road which does not correlate with the change of venue. In the first meeting, despite losing by 19 points, the Vikings were only outgained by 38 total yards and the offense has a shot at controlling the line of scrimmage. The Bears allowed no more than 106 rushing yards in their first six games but have allowed an average of 136 ypg over their last six games and have to face Adrian Peterson once again. He managed only 108 yards in the first meeting but it came on 18 carries (6.0 ypc). He has averaged 157.8 ypg and scored six touchdowns over his last six games. While the Bears allowed a season high in yards on defense, the Vikings did as well but that was against Green Bay. They gave up just 296 yards in the first meeting against the Bears and with the receiving corps and offensive line banged up for Chicago, they can have some similar success. With two more road games on deck, Minnesota knows what is at stake here as a loss and the hopes of sneaking into the playoffs could be lost as playing at St. Louis and Houston and tough challenges. The Bears seem to be in decent position for the playoffs but they aren't. They're tied with Green Bay for first place in the NFC North, but hold the fifth seed in the NFC based on their Week Two loss to the Packers. The Vikings fall into a solid contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive ATS losses, in December games. This situation is 87-43 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 8* (116) Minnesota Vikings |
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12-09-12 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 89 h 30 m | Show |
I won with Washington on Monday night and that was clearly a huge win for the Redskins as they pulled to within just one game of the Giants in the NFC East. They remain at home which may seem like a good spot but I think Washington has itself in a tough one based on the opposition. The Redskins are coming off three straight victories and if that doesn't spell letdown, nothing does. Yes, there is a lot on the line so a letdown may be the wrong term but this will be tough to come back from.
Baltimore is coming off a loss against Pittsburgh and while it still has a two-game lead in the AFC North, with Pittsburgh back home against San Diego, a loss here from the Ravens will most likely mean that lead is trimmed to just one game. The Ravens have won three straight games on the road and they know they need to keep the pedal down with Ben Roethlisberger on his way back very shortly. With a game at home against Denver coming up, Baltimore knows it needs this one. The Ravens had won four straight games prior to the Steelers loss and they have followed up each of their previous two losses with wins. The offense has taken a step back the last three games as they have averaged just 16.3 ppg and have been held to fewer than 300 yards in two of those games. Now Baltimore gets to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Redskins are ranked 29th in total defense and 23rd in scoring defense. A great effort last week against New York will not be duplicated again. The Washington offense has been solid all season with RGIII becoming a legitimate star in this league. Baltimore's defense has not played that well this season but it has played a lot better since its bye week. After allowing 23 ppg and 400 ypg through its first seven games, the Ravens have allowed just 16.2 ppg and 333.4 ypg over their last five games which is a huge recovery. There is a lot of pride with this unit just because they are getting older doesn't mean that they cannot still compete. Terrell Suggs is a gametime decision this week. The Ravens are 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off an upset loss as a home favorite and they fall into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a home loss by three points or less, in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. A great spot catching Washington in both a physical and emotional letdown. 10* (105) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-09-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 88 h 19 m | Show |
Carolina was in a very tough spot last week having to go to Kansas City and play a game a day after tragedy hit the Chiefs. We won with Kansas City in that game and the emotions from it carries that team through. The opposite was the case for the Panthers as they were put into a situation no team wants to be in. They were coming off a big Monday night road win at Philadelphia on top of it so the short week didn't help matters. Now back home, look for a full out effort.
The Falcons got away with another one. This team is 11-1 and a lot of that has been done with smoke and mirrors and fortunate bounces. They were outgained by 153 yards against the Saints last Thursday but managed to pick off Drew Brees five times. Those throws were bad ones too so the credit cannot solely go to the defense as Brees was clearly not himself. There is still a lot at stake for Atlanta as far as playoff seeding and such but coming off a division clinching win is tough to recover from. Carolina was able to outgain Kansas City last week but it was unable to match the Chiefs energy. The Panthers have now outgained four of their last seven opponents but only have two wins to show for it. Closing has been a big issue as in their last seven losses, six have been by six points or less including one in overtime. Carolina has been painfully close at home to being a lot better but a 1-5 record is what has put them down to where they are right now but they continue to play hard. The defense will have to play a big game in order to slow down the Falcons offense but this defense has played a lot better. The Panthers are ranked 14th in total defense and after allowing more than 400 yards three times in their first four games, they have allowed 400 yards only once since. After defeating the New Orleans Saints 23-13 on Thursday, Falcons coach Mike Smith gave the team four days off and the gameplanning for this game did not begin until Wednesday. The first meeting was a close one on Atlanta as the Panthers lost on a 40-yard field goal with five second left and they falls into two successful revenge spots. We play on teams that are revenging a loss by three points or less, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Also we play on home teams that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (118) Carolina Panthers |
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12-09-12 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Cleveland Browns -6.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 88 h 8 m | Show |
You have to give Kansas City a lot of credit for not only playing last week after the Jovan Belcher tragedy, but going out and winning. A lot of times in sports, emotions take over and that is what happened last week with the Chiefs as they went out and snapped their eight-game losing streak. At the same time though, those emotions can do a complete reversal and I expect that to happen this week. This team is emotionally spent and playing this week is going to be a lot tougher than last week.
After starting the season 0-5, the Browns have been playing a lot better as they are 4-3 over their last seven games. Three of those victories came against the Bengals, Chargers and Steelers so it isn't like that have been beating up on the NFL doormats although Kansas City can certainly fit into that category. Cleveland has won two straight games and it has been extremely competitive at home all season with a 3-3 record while getting outscored by just 0.6 ppg. The Chiefs are coming off two straight draining games as the week prior, they lost a close game at home against rival Denver so now hitting the road after three straight home games, a loss against Cincinnati started the homestand, is a challenge. To their credit, they have put up some good games on the road including at Pittsburgh and at New Orleans but they have also put up some real duds with three of the four losses coming by 18, 28 and 18 points. Defensively, the Chiefs are ranked 26th against the run, giving up 129.3 ypg. They rank ninth against the pass, giving up 219.9 ypg, but it is not necessarily because of stellar work. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 2,774 yards at a 60.3 completion rate, averaged 8.3 yards per pass and posted a 103.0 rating. They have thrown for 25 touchdowns and been intercepted seven times. The Browns should have no problem moving the ball as the offensive is coming off its best game of the season with 475 yards. This is a big number for the Browns to be laying but I feel it is completely justified based on the situation. They have been an underdog in every one of their previous home games but considering the last four have been against quality opponents (yes at the time San Diego was quality), that just makes sense. The Browns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after a win. 10* (108) Cleveland Browns |
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12-09-12 | NY Jets -2.5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 59 m | Show |
I was originally staying away from this game based on the fact the Jets were likely going to start Greg McElroy as I honestly thought we had seen the last of Mark Sanchez in a Jets uniform. Well, he was just recently named the starter once again and I think we are going to see one of his best efforts of the season. People are so down on him right now which makes him in a perfect take situation. "It was probably the worst and best experience of my life," Sanchez said Wednesday, reflecting on last Sunday's benching.
Jacksonville is coming off a loss in Buffalo on a very rainy day so it is hard to take a lot out of that game because of the bad weather. What can be taken out of it though is the fact that the Jaguars continue to get stung by the injury bug. Starting running back Rashad Jennings and starting wide receiver Cecil Shorts both suffered concussions last week and both are likely out this week which depletes and already poor offense. Jacksonville is ranked 31st in total offense and 30th in scoring offense. It may be tough for some to hear me defend Sanchez but I'm going to. The benching was a very good thing as it should serve as a huge motivator for him. In addition, he has played against some very tough defenses as in his 12 starts, he has faced defenses ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 12th in half of those. The Jets have averaged 11.3 ppg in those games. In the other games, New York has put up 26.7 ppg and considering the Jaguars are ranked 31st in total defense and 30th in scoring defense, the Jets offense should roll. The Jets are having a rough season no doubt but to their credit, they have played the league's 2nd toughest schedule. They have faced five teams in the top ten and seven teams in the top 16, going 0-5 and 1-6 respectively so they are 4-1 against the bottom half of the NFL. Jacksonville certainly falls into that category. Granted, elite teams are capable of defeating other elite teams in the NFL but no one here is calling the Jets elite. But they are good enough the steamroll one of the worst teams in the NFL. Playing road favorites in the NFL is not going to be a winning proposition over the long haul but some spots it is deemed that way when the situation arises and this is one of those. Additionally, the Jets fall into a solid situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Don't be surprised to see one of the best efforts of the season from New York this week. 10* (113) New York Jets |
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12-08-12 | Navy v. Army +7 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 122 h 11 m | Show |
Could this finally be the year? Army has lost the last 10 meetings to Navy which is easily the longest streak in the history of this series that dates back to 1890. It has been another disappointing year for the Black Knights who missed out on a bowl game last season and can now finish no better than their 3-9 record from a season ago. They are coming off a 31-point pounding against Temple but they were only outgained by 70 yards as turnovers did them in. The public will remember the score and nothing else.
Navy is going to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl to be played December 29th against Arizona St. which is its ninth bowl in 10 years. After starting 1-3 including getting shutout at home against San Jose St., the Midshipmen closed strong which was sparked by an overtime win at Air Force that started a 6-1 run over the final seven games. They are outgaining opponents by less than 10 ypg and they have been outgained in half of their last eight games. As bad as the record seems for Army, it hasn't played all that bad. It is getting outgained by just 1.3 ypg and as mentioned before, turnovers have played a big role in the losses. The Black Knights are 94th in the nation in turnover margin but they should not be bad off here as Navy is only 72nd in the same category. Army own the nation's best rushing offense, averaging 369.8 ypg on 5.5 ypc so while they pile on the yards, they do it effectively with a strong yard per carry average. The winner of the Army-Navy game will take home the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy, which is presented annually to the winner of the football competition among the three major Service Academies and is named in honor of the President of the United States. This year's game marks the first time since 2005 that the trophy was on the line in the Army-Navy game and just the sixth time since the trophy's inception in 1972. While this game is big every year, it is bigger now so this is Army's bowl game. Navy is just 4-7 ATS this season including going 0-4 ATS in its four games as a favorite against FBS teams. Army falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost seven or eight out of their last eight games going up against an opponent after having won four or five out of their last six games. This situation is 31-12 ATS (72.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Black Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (104) Army Black Knights |
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12-06-12 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +11.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 18 m | Show |
Denver has won seven straight games and is definitely poised to give the AFC leaders a run come playoff time. With won come popularity, with popularity comes betting attraction and with betting attraction comes inflated lines. Yes, Denver is playing great and Oakland is far from it but this line is extremely overpriced. Getting anything over a touchdown at home is huge in this league and that is proven by home underdogs of 8 points or more are 27-3 ATS over the last four years.
The Raiders are coming off another tough loss as they lost by three points against the Browns to make it five straight defeats going back to the start of November. They have not been playing that badly as they have outgained five of their last eight opponents and on the season they are getting outgained by only 25.2 ppg which is very respectable for a team with their record. The issue has been miscues as Oakland has lost the turnover battle in four of its last five games. Denver won the first meeting in this series and it wasn't even close as the Broncos won by 31 points while outgaining Oakland by 266 total yards. Despite losing the next game against the Patriots, that first meeting against Oakland seemed to have set a spark and got them rolling after a 1-2 start to the season. This is a divisional rivalry and even though one team is rolling and the other is reeling, records can be tossed out the door and I expect the Raiders to give all they have to get their revenge on national television. Raiders head coach Dennis Allen, the former Broncos defensive coordinator, left the team immediately after the Cleveland game to be with his father who eventually passed away on Tuesday. If there ever is a time for a team to come together and win one for their coach, this is the time. With the short week, the position coaches had begun some of the scouting of the Broncos last week to allow the coordinators to put together the game plan on Sunday night and Monday. Therefore there is not a big disadvantage with Allen being out. Oakland has numerous situations on its side in this game and one of the best is to play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75%) since 1983. Additionally, Denver is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games against teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg while the Raiders are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 divisional games. 10* (102) Oakland Raiders |
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12-03-12 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
The Giants won the first meeting in a wild game as they scored a 77-yard touchdown pass with 1:13 remaining after Washington had just taken the lead less that 20 seconds prior. Obviously the Redskins want revenge from that game but more important they need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Sitting at 5-6, they are a game out of the NFC's second Wild Card spot heading into Sunday and just as important, a victory puts them just a game behind New York in the NFC East.
The Giants looked great last week coming out of the bye and people will be riding them based on past success this time of year. Also, they have been great on the road the last couple years but the line is totally overinflated here. New York was favored by six and a half points in that first meeting at home and not a lot has changed since then so if anything, this game should be a pickem. Going against the masses here as this line has been driven up to provide a great home underdog opportunity. New York has succeeded this season with a lot due to turnovers. The Giants have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games and that has been a huge part to why they are fifth in the NFL in scoring offense and ninth in the NFL in scoring defense. They are 10th in total offense and just 23rd in total defense and that is where the Redskins can take advantage. Holding Green Bay to 317 yards and 10 points was a huge effort but repeating that will be a challenge here. The Redskins offense has thrived with RGIII behind center as they are sixth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense. Those two rankings are so close and so good because they do not turn the ball over. Washington has given it up only once over its last four games and for the season its 10 giveaways are the fewest in the NFC and third in the NFL. The defense was riddled with injuries early in the season but they have been playing a lot but recently. Washington can take advantage it is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing six or more yppl. Additionally, the Redskins fall into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. Also, the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record. 10* (368) Washington Redskins |
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12-02-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. San Diego Chargers +2.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 5 m | Show | |
We lost a devastating game last week with San Diego as the Chargers gave up a 4th and 29 late in the fourth quarter and Baltimore was able to keep its drive going, eventually tying the game and sending into overtime which the Ravens eventually won. While the Chargers are not completely out of the playoff picture, things are looking bleak and another loss will send them home during the playoffs once again. This is the time of the year San Diego tends to step it up and we should see it again this week.
The Bengals meanwhile are right back in the playoff picture as they have won three straight games to get to 6-5 which is tied with Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. Obviously, they are playing for a lot as well but I do not think this team is as good as people suddenly think they are during this winning streak. They had lost four straight prior to it and the schedule has been in their favor as Cincinnati has played four of its last five games at home with a bye mixed in there as well. The Cincinnati defense played at a very high level last season but started very slow this year. However it limited the Chiefs and Raiders to a combined 502 yards and have forced seven turnovers during their winning streak. The Kansas City and Oakland offenses are nothing to be feared though and San Diego still has a very powerful offense when it isn't turning the ball over. After two straight bad week of offense, expect the Chargers to get going again. The Bengals offense has put up consecutive 400-plus yards games for the first time this season but again, it came against the Chiefs and Raiders which both have been below average this season. With the exception of giving up that 4th and 29, the Chargers defense played great last week against a very solid Ravens offense as they limited the scoring despite giving up a significant amount of yards. San Diego is 10th in the NFL in total defense and 12th in scoring defense. Typically San Diego would be favored here but after losing five of six games, we are getting a very good number with the Chargers. Actually, San Diego was favored by three points in this matchup last week when lines were available at some spots so we are catching a huge amount of points and we can thank it for the blown call on fourth down last week. The Chargers have been here before, last year as a matter of fact, when they started 4-1 and went on to win four of their last five games. 8* (364) San Diego Chargers |
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12-02-12 | Carolina Panthers v. Kansas City Chiefs +3 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 59 m | Show | |
Carolina is coming off a win over the hapless and injury riddled Eagles and now they are apparently good enough to lay points on the road once again. Playing on a short week and on the road is a tough spot for any team and it becomes even more challenging for a struggling team like Carolina. The offense put up the most points since Week Two and they followed that up with a clunker the next game and I expect the same problems here even though they are playing a team with just one win.
The Chiefs played well again last week but got nothing to show for it as they came up short against the Broncos. They came in with some high hopes this year and an early season win at New Orleans gave Kansas City some confidence to move forward but it has since lost its last eight games. The Chiefs are winless at home at 0-6 and with just one game left after this against the Colts, this could be the final opportunity for them to win here as the Colts could be fighting for the playoffs come Week 16. This is the third straight home game for Kansas City and it falls into a similar situation that Cincinnati was in three weeks ago. Since 1985 there have been 180 teams that have played a three-game homestand and only 10 times have they dropped all three of those games. 18 times teams have lost the first two games and gone on to win with the only exception being the 2008 Lions that went 0-16 that year. Cincinnati defeated the Giants in Week 10 after dropping the first two games of its homestand. Points scored and points allowed have been the big issues obviously for Kansas City but the actual offense and defense have not been that bad as it is 21st in total offense and 16th in total defense. The Chiefs have lost the turnover battle in eight of 11 games with the other three games resulting in a wash. Carolina is not a ball hawking defense and the Chiefs have actually done a better job of late, giving it up only three times in their last three games after turning it over 29 times in their first eight games. Teams on long losing streaks like to be laid off by bettors fearing the streak will go on and that is definitely case here. The fact that Carolina won on national television last week only adds to that. The Chiefs have a great league-wide situation on their side as we play on underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season. This situation is 80-40 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Carolina is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win. 9* (348) Kansas City Chiefs |
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12-02-12 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +9 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 72 h 44 m | Show | |
Often times we see dominant NFL teams falling flat coming off big efforts in consecutive weeks and we have two teams this week which fall into that category. The first is New England. The Patriots are flying high with five straight wins but I think they are in a tough spot and we are getting line value on top of it. New England gets some extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving but I think that can hurt momentum and after being a road favorite of -7 over the Jets, they are favored by more over Miami? I don't think so.
The Dolphins are coming off a big win last week at home against Seattle but with the hated Patriots in town, there will be no letdown. The victory snapped the Dolphins three-game losing streak and they are now just a game under .500 for the season. The playoffs are far from out of the question as they trail Pittsburgh and Cincinnati by just a game and should things work out like I think they will, they will remain that way worst case scenario. A win here will go a long way. There is no reason to think Miami cannot win this game as they actually matchup well against New England. The defense is playing well as they have allowed just 295.3 ypg over their last three games and they are ranked ninth in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 20.5 ppg. The Patriots have a high powered offense and they have been scoring points in bunches but two of those games came at home, another came in London and last week 28 of the 49 points were because of turnovers. Miami has been very inconsistent on offense all season but it is coming off its third best game of the season as it put up 435 yards against a very tough Seattle defense. As mentioned, the Patriots defense was in attack mode last week but facing an offense like the Jets can do that. New England is just 27th in the NFL in total defense and Miami should have success running the ball as after allowing 82.7 ypg through their first six games, the Patriots have allowed 122.6 ypg rushing in their last five games. Of the Dolphins six losses, four have been by five points or fewer with three coming by just a field goal including two in overtime. Miami was thumped in Houston but that was the season opener and in the 34-point loss against Tennessee, it was only outgained by 38 total yards as a 4-0 turnover disadvantage did it in. Speaking of turnovers, the Dolphins defense does not have a takeaway in their last four games and that is a streak I like to go against. The number continues to rise and we will gladly accept it. 8* (354) Miami Dolphins |
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12-02-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. St Louis Rams +7.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 72 h 42 m | Show | |
Often times we see dominant NFL teams falling flat coming off big efforts in consecutive weeks and we have two teams this week which fall into that category. The second is San Francisco. The 49ers were coming off a tie with the Rams and took their frustrations out on Chicago the following game and then last week went into New Orleans and defeated a hot Saints team. They have put up 63 points over the last two games as the offense has found a new weapon in Colin Kaepernick.
St. Louis improved to 4-6-1 last week with its win in Arizona as it sent the Cardinals to their seventh straight loss. That snapped a five-game winless streak and will provide some needed confidence going into this game. The Rams a very solid 3-3 at home this season and one of those losses came against Green Bay right when it finally started to hit its stride. Another came against the Patriots but that game was in London so we can't even count that. The Jets loss was bad but a 3-0 turnover disadvantage was the difference. The 49ers have to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now with a two and a half game lead in the NFC West and coming off a statement game on the road. Even though this is a divisional game, this is the ideal letdown spot and they have essentially had two short weeks based on the Monday night game and then the travel aspect this week. After watching the win over the Saints last week, the public is again all over San Francisco and the line continues to rise. Speaking of rise, the rise of Kaepernick has been quick and seamless. He replaced Alex Smith after he went down with a concussion in the first meeting against the Rams and since replacing Smith against St. Louis, Kaepernick has a 104.1 passer rating while tossing three touchdowns and running for two more. While the question is can San Francisco up another big effort, can Kaepernick do the same? He will be facing his first tough defense on the road so that question remains to be answered. It is very interesting to note that the 49ers have not won three games in a row this season. They have won two in row four times but the three previous times were followed with losses twice and a tie. While many will not call for a loss here, it is more than possible as San Francisco proved in the first meeting that it doesn't match up well with the Rams as St. Louis won the yardage battle by 117 total yards. The home crowd will keep the Rams around here with a chance to pull of a major upset. 8* (344) St. Louis Rams |
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12-02-12 | Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans +7 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
Houston is coming off two straight overtime wins which can be looked at in two different ways. It can bring a huge amount of confidence or it can produce a pretty big letdown. In the Texans case, I feel it is the latter. They were winning early in the season and winning these tight games is more of a sigh of relief than anything and it shows that they are not playing at a high level despite being 10-1. That record plays into the lines going forward and we are again catching a good number playing against Houston.
When Jake Locker came back into the lineup, the Titans looked like a different team two games ago even though he showed some rust. He had a much more productive game against Jacksonville last week but two interceptions hurt him. Still, Tennessee scored 56 points the last two games while outgaining both opponents which was the first time it has outgained consecutive opponents this season. Better yet, both of those games were on the road so the Titans should have some extra confidence going into this revenge game. Tennessee was thumped in Houston in the first meeting by 24 points even though it outgained the Texans by 28 yards. The difference there was turnovers as the Titans lost the turnover battle 3-0 and two of those were interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. That was the game that Locker was hurt in and he missed most of that game and five others because of a separated non-throwing shoulder. The offenses needed a boost and has gotten it and now playing a very banged up Texans defense. If coming off two consecutive overtime wins wasn't bad enough, Houston has a game at New England next Monday night so this is a very tough sandwich situation. Even throw in the previous week's hard fought win at Chicago and that adds up to a brutal three-game stretch. Head coach Gary Kubiak summed it up perfectly. "It's been very taxing on the team. Winning was so important, of course. To come out of there (Detroit) with a win because of where we're at and some of the issues we have, it was exceptional." As mentioned, this is a revenge game for Tennessee and it falls into a terrific revenge situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss against a division rival. This situation is 49-18 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1983. In addition, Houston is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Upset alert right here. 10* (356) Tennessee Titans |
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12-02-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. Detroit Lions -4.5 | Top | 35-33 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 5 m | Show |
The Lions have dropped two brutal home games in a row to fall to 4-7 and are now clinging by a thread in hopes of the playoffs. There is a three-way tie for the second Wild Card spot at 6-5 so it is going to take a lot of winning and a lot of help to get it done. This is now a must win game or the season will officially be done for Detroit as three of its final four games are against the Packers, Falcons and Bears. The extra time off from Thanksgiving to go along with no travel should help.
Indianapolis won against last week to improve to 7-4 and it currently sits in the first Wild Card spot in the AFC. That win was at home though where the Colts are 5-1 compared to just 2-3 on the road with the victories coming at Jacksonville and Tennessee and it is no coincidence that those were divisional wins. Those wins happened to follow home wins but the last time the Colts won at home and a divisional game was not on deck resulted in a 35-9 loss at New York to the Jets. This is the third straight home game for the Lions and it falls into a similar situation that Cincinnati was in three weeks ago. Since 1985 there have been 180 teams that have played a three-game homestand and only 10 times have they dropped all three of those games. 18 times teams have lost the first two games and gone on to win with the only exception being the 2008 Lions that went 0-16 that year. Cincinnati defeated the Giants in Week 10 after dropping the first two games of its homestand. The Lions are second in the NFL in total offense but they have killed themselves with turnovers which seems to be a common theme with all of these losing teams. The good news here though is that Indianapolis does not know how to take the ball away as it dead last in the NFL with just seven takeaways. The Lions should no problem moving the ball against the 20th ranked defense and scoring against the 22nd ranked defense in passing touchdowns allowed. Detroit's defense has struggled over the last three games but it should clamp down here. Andrew Luck is a solid rookie quarterback but the Colts also turn the ball over on offense which has cut into their scoring as they are 21st in scoring offense. We play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outgaining opponents by 40 to 100 going up against teams with a yardage margin between +/- 40 ypg, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (77 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (350) Detroit Lions |
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12-01-12 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin +3 | Top | 31-70 | Win | 100 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
Wisconsin no doubt backed into the Big Ten Championship but it is not going to apologize for it. The Badgers finished the season at 4-4 in the conference and 7-5 overall and they definitely had some of the worst luck in the country. They lost three games in overtime and the other two losses were by three points each so a few bounces their way and the record looks a lot better. Many will argue that Wisconsin does not belong here but this is still a very solid team capable of a second straight Big Ten Championship.
I do like the way how Nebraska finished the season with six straight wins and was able to hold off Michigan for the Big Ten Legends Division title. I don't like how it closed in its last game though as the Huskers struggled against a pretty bad Iowa team that was playing for nothing as it was well out of the bowl picture. Momentum can be a big thing but when it comes to a game like this, momentum can become secondary because of what is at stake. Nebraska brings in a powerful offense that is ranked 26th overall and 29th in scoring but it was held to a season low 263 total yards last week against the Hawkeyes. The Huskers were fortunate that the Iowa offense was putrid this year. After going over 500 total yards in four of their first six games, the Huskers have not done so in any of their last five games. Nebraska did torch Wisconsin for 440 yards in the first meeting but that was an aberration as the Badgers are 11th in total defense and have allowed just 278.7 ypg since. The Badgers will be looking for some payback after losing in Lincoln earlier this season, blowing a 17-point second half lead and they are more than capable of doing it. Let's not forget what happened last season when Wisconsin made history by overcoming an earlier heartbreaking loss to Michigan St. with a 42-39 victory over the Spartans in the first Big Ten title game. The experience of going through that experience last year should be an advantage for the Badgers. This is one of those games where Wisconsin will go back at the film of the first meeting and make adjustments while Nebraska may not tweak as much based on the success it had. The Badgers have been great in these spots as they are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after two straight losses and they have not lost three straight games since 2008. Also, Wisconsin is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg so it knows how to scheme on defense. 10* (338) Wisconsin Badgers |
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12-01-12 | Boise State v. Nevada +9.5 | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 97 h 44 m | Show | |
Nevada isn't getting much respect here but the linesmakers were forced to make a number this size based on the fact that it had to be big enough to cover the market that will be all over Boise St. Reason being is that Nevada has lost seven straight games against the number and typical bettors want no part of that. This is where the value comes into play because even though the Wolf Pack have not been getting the money, they are still 7-4 on the season and a legitimate threat here to win outright.
Boise St. isn't the same dominating team it has been the past few season. The Broncos offense has been average this season as they are ranked 79th overall and 49th in scoring and the main reason the scoring has been good is that they are fourth in turnover margin which has led to some very short fields to play from. Nevada's defense has been average and while Boise St. has played well on offense on the road, it has not faced a defense ranked higher than 98th over its last three road games. The Broncos do have a very strong defense however. But again, a lot of that comes down to what teams they have faced and they have faced some pathetic offenses. In their 11 games, the Broncos have faced seven offenses ranked 81st or worse and in five games away from home, they have played teams with offenses ranked 119th, 75th, 106th, 91st and 90th. Clearly they have played no one and Nevada brings in an offense ranked 10th overall and 16th in scoring so it will finally be tested. The Wolf Pack are a home underdog by the largest amount since Boise St. visited last time back in 2010 and we all know what happened there when they knocked Boise St. out of the Rose Bowl. Playing at home in this meeting is a big advantage for Nevada considering this is the final meeting between these two rivals so winning the last one is always the one people remember the most. Even if the Broncos do come back to the MWC, it won't be decided for a while still. As mentioned, Boise St. has been one of the best in the country in turnover margin but Nevada falls into a solid contrarian turnover situation where we play on home underdogs after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. On top of that, Boise St. is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. 9* (320) Nevada Wolf Pack |
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12-01-12 | Oklahoma -6 v. TCU | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 25 m | Show |
Oklahoma is coming off a big win last week against Oklahoma St. in overtime. The Sooners did not lead until the game was done and while a big victory like that against a rival can cause a letdown, I don't see it happening here. There is still a lot at stake for Oklahoma as it can win the Big XII with a win here and a Kansas St. loss Saturday night but even if the Wildcats do win, the Sooners will likely be going to a BCS bowl game with a victory barring the crazy Kent St. scenario.
We won with TCU on Thanksgiving as it went into Texas and defeated the Longhorns so that will be a difficult game to bounceback from. The Horned Frogs improved to 7-4 with the victory and also finished the season a very solid 5-1 on the road. They are just 2-3 at home however with one of those wins coming against Grambling of the FCS and the other against 4-8 Virginia. TCU lost all three games against Big XII opposition and all three of those teams are bowl eligible. I mentioned the Kent St. scenario. The Golden Flashes are 17th in the BCS standings, one spot away from securing an automatic BCS bid and perhaps taking away the last at-large opportunity out there. "I think that we have a chance. That's the only thing I've been aware of," receiver Justin Brown said. "I don't know anything about all of that other stuff. You guys probably know way more than me. I just know we've got to play TCU." Oklahoma just needs to go out and take care of its own business and let it unfold.. While the Horned Frogs defense has again been very solid, the Sooners offense is peaking once again. After getting stifled by Notre Dame, the Sooners have put up 593 yards in three of four games, averaging a whopping 583.3 ypg while averaging 44.5 ppg. Overall the offense is ranked ninth overall and seventh in scoring defense, both of which are third in the Big XII. The Horned Frogs have struggled against some of the stronger offenses in the conference and we will see that here again. This is one of those situation where if Oklahoma gets up early, TCU will have difficulties playing catch up. This is even true with the Sooners recent struggles on defense. They are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, under head coach Bob Stoops, Oklahoma is 18-9 ATS in 27 games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread while the Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (313) Oklahoma Sooners |
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11-30-12 | UCLA Bruins +9 v. Stanford | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 82 h 39 m | Show |
Stanford defeated UCLA in the regular season finale to set up this rematch for the Pac 12 Championship. It is a rarity for teams to play twice in the same season let alone twice in two weeks so there is obviously no edge on either side as far as familiarity goes. We do get an edge in the result from last week that no one is going to soon forget which makes Stanford a typical public side this week as a 17-point win on the road will have bettors lining up behind them expecting a bigger win at home. If it were only that easy.
The game came down to 13 seconds in the third quarter when everything fell Stanford's way. It began with an interception for Stanford than started a drive at the Bruins' 42-yard line. Cardinal running back Stepfan Taylor went 40 yards to set up his 1-yard touchdown run two plays later. Then Stanford recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and went 11 yards for another score. Those two turnovers were the big difference as overall, Stanford only outgained UCLA by 47 total yards. Taking nothing away from Stanford winning but UCLA did not play its typical game. The Cardinal have a great defense no doubt but the Bruins hurt themselves in many ways and were taken out of their gameplan. The Bruins were limited to 261 yards passing and one touchdown, while giving up seven sacks and an interception and it didn't help matters by a number of dropped passes. The offensive line is where UCLA needs to make adjustments as well as quarterback Brett Hundley getting rid of the ball quicker. Plain and simple, it is difficult beating the same team twice in one season. This has nothing to do with familiarity as mentioned before but it has to do with changing gameplans. The Bruins will be doing things differently to make things work while Stanford likely will not be changing much because of the adage 'if it isn't broke, don't fix it'. UCLA will be bringing different looks and new wrinkles and that is where a big advantage can occur if done properly and Jim Mora is good enough to do that. I expect the Bruins to be able to rush the ball better even though Stanford has a very strong rushing defense. UCLA is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game while going 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following a double-digit home loss. The Bruins are still a very solid 9-3 on the year and they have not been underdogs of this many points all season as the most points they have received is six points and that resulted in an outright win at Arizona St. 10* (307) UCLA Bruins |