The defending NBA champs Im betting will be primed to grab back the lead in this series vs the Phoenix Suns and deserve respect getting points in game 5 of this series. LA LAKERS are 24-8 ATS  when tied in a playoff series since 1996. LA LAKERS are 19-9 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games. PHOENIX is 0-8 ATS  in home games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Note: I know the Lakers are going to be without Davis , but  as long as James is on the court they are golden .... even when Davis sits , as  the Lakers recorded  a +7.1 point differential per 100 possessions vs opposition this season.

Play on the Lakers to cover 

The first 3 games of this series , saw this offered total eclipsed and despite of a lower combined score ,last time out, Im betting on a overall pace increase here as Denver in energized form will look to run the Blazers out of building in the thin air of the mile high city in what will be a fast paced affair.  

PORTLAND in 31 games  when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season have seen a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 14-4 OVER when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg scored. 

PORTLAND is 19-9 OVER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 36-13 L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more  shots/game), after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 53-26 L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

The Sixers clobbered the Wizards last time out 132-103  and  by the end of that game you could see the DC group was  in a dejected mood, which Im betting will carry into this game. Meanwhile, Philly Im betting will regress offensively while continuing to play a top teir brand of defense that ranks 6th in the league in ppg allowed. WASHINGTON is 15-7 UNDER after a loss by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 223.4 ppg scored. 

PHILADELPHIA in 18  road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season have seen a combined average of 213.7 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 13-3 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 18-4 UNDER in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996 with a combined average of 184.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 47-18 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 52-25 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4

The Clippers finally woke up after looking like they were asleep at the wheel in the first two games of this series back in LA. Now back in a groove Im betting on the Clippers to come right back and tie this series with a win tonight. LA CLIPPERS are 18-7 ATS  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 season

 Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog.Mavericks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 Conference Quarterfinals games.Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.

DALLAS is 0-8 ATS  in home games on Sunday games over the last 2 season.

Clippers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Dallas.

Play on the LA Clippers 

This is a pivotal game in this series and /Im betting the Suns down 2-1 in this series  will have to be more aggressive offensively and try to push the Lakers out of their comfort zone. This Im betting leads to a much higher scoring affair than the first 3 games of this series saw. 

LAKERS in 33 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season have seen a combined average of 214 ppg scored. 

PHOENIX is 21-12 OVER  versus teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 225.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The opus Morandi of the NY Knicks has been a grinding defensive  style of hoops and nothing changes here today. The Knicks rank 26th in ppg offense No.1 in ppg defense and No.30 in pace in the NBA. With that said, Im betting on a very physical game here as NY will continue to try to disrupt the Hawks flow. This Im betting results in a fairly low scoring affair that fails to eclipse this offered  number. 

NEW YORK lost game 2  here in Atlanta in this series and are also 16-4 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 207.1 ppg scored.

 NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 43-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The last game in this series was a high scoring offensive slugfest , but now in game 3 Im expecting regression from these offenses and for the Grizzlies to step up their defensive play here at home  and for Utah to follow suit behind the No.3 ranked ppg D in the NBA . 

UTAH is 31-10 UNDER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs since 1996 with a combined average of 185.4 ppg scored. Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Under is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.

MEMPHIS is 19-4 UNDER  after a combined score of 245 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 218.6 ppg scored.

Jenkins is 13-2 UNDER after allowing 130 points or more as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 211.9 ppg going on the board. 

Jenkins is 13-1 UNDER  in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days as the coach of MEMPHIS  with a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.Jenkins is 9-0 UNDER   in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 219 ppg going on the score board.Jenkins is 15-4 UNDER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored. 

Under is 37-15 in Grizzlies last 52 home games.

Under is 21-10 in Grizzlies last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - averaging 9 or more steals/game on the season, on Saturday games are 47-18 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 69-34 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 31-9 in the last 40 meetings in Memphis.

Play UNDER

Down 2 -0 in this series the Wizards 3rd ranked ppg offense and 1st ranked pace  will have to open up and play the type of hoops they were built to play and because of their 30th ranked ppg defense the edge goes to what Im betting will be a high scoring game. I know the Sixers are a defense first team but they will also be forced to open up which they can do well when pushed. This game projects to be in the 230s (combined score). 

This total is still relevant even if Russell Westbrook does not play for the Wizards tonight. 

WASHINGTON is 13-3 OVER revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 243.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

WASHINGTON is 14-6 OVER (+7.4 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined score of 245.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 34-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 39-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 44-19 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

Down 3-0 in this series the Heat excuse the pun, need to bring the Heat and leave everything on the floor tonight. In game 1 they did what I thought they would, but after that heart breaking close loss in the opener, they have suffered and extended emotional  letdown.  Quote:"Our rhythm is off," Heat guard Goran Dragic said. "It's way off. We lose our confidence." End quote: Needless to say alot of soul searching has been done since that last game, and now Im betting on the Heat coming up big here and getting us the cover in an all out  due or die performance. Note: The Heat haven't been swept in the playoffs since 2007 against the Chicago Bulls. 

Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 road games.

MILWAUKEE is 5-16 ATSafter 3 or more consecutive wins this season.MILWAUKEE is 6-21 ATS   after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 2 seasons.

Key Injury :Bucks  starting guard Donte DiVincenzo out for play offs. 

Bucks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Miami.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 26-68 L/24 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

 Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3

Boston is now down 2-0 in this series after 130-108 loss last time out. Unfortunately now for the Celtics they are going to have to open up if they have any chance of competing , which Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring affair here in game 3. Note: Over is 20-8-1 in Celtics last 29 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Over is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 home games. 

BOSTON is 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 120 points or more this season with a combined average of 237.1 ppg scored. BOSTON is 11-2 OVER  in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.

BROOKLYN in 70 games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average of 233 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 23-11 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 39-9 OVER L5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 31-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BROOKLYN) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 41-16 OVER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3

From a SRS comparison there is data that suggests  these teams being very evenly matched . The Knicks rank 11th at 2.13. Atlanta ranks 10th at 2.14 . Thus getting points for me is a strong option here especially after watching the first two games. Im betting on the Knicks tenaciousness which is unmatched and their top ranked ppd defence to be the difference maker. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

NEW YORK is 23-13 ATS in road games this season

NEW YORK is 10-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons including 4-0 ATS L/4 visits to Atlanta. 

NEW YORK is 18-4 ATS   versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 22-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

Portland took game 1 in convincing fashion then the Nuggets returned the favor in a DD win in game 2. Now in true zig zag theory convergence we go back to the Blazers tonight here at home. Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

DENVER is 6-17 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. 

Malone is 26-44 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more as the coach of DENVER.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-29 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Trail Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Play on the Blazers to win/cover 

When the the defending champs are in top form the Lakers are hard to beat as was the case last time out when they took out the Suns by a 109-102 final score. Now with play off action in full swing Im betting  we will now see an experienced side take advantage of the young inexperienced Suns behind a defensive style of play that will disrupt the visitors flow. LA LAKERS are 23-8 ATS  when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

PHOENIX is 7-20 ATS   off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after a game where they covered the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 85-49 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

Memphis has been a dangerous opponent for all comers as this season has progressed and their aggressiveness has. been obvious, for anyone watching. Nothing will change tonight as they will come right back at the talented Jazz and force their opponent to open up in what Im betting will be a high scoring affair. Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Utah.MEMPHIS in 24    road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season have seen a combined average of 233.6 ppg scored.

 Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Jenkins is 14-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 231.5 ppg scored.Jenkins is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 237 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 34-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

NYK lost a closely contested game last time out vs the Hawks . The Hawks actually kept up with the tenacious work ethic of the Knicks which has been rare this season. The difference maker Im betting will come via the Knicks consistent never say style of play something I believe the Hawks will not be able to contend with in game 2.  

NEW YORK is 9-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

NEW YORK is 17-2 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. NEW YORK is 11-3 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. 

NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 17-4 ATS versus sub par  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  

NBA Favorites (NEW YORK) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 100-64 ATS L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 

Play on the NYK to cover 

The Philadelphia 76ers are built for post season hoops and Im betting their top tier defense  and physical style of play will try to slow down the run and gun Wizards  which will result in a much lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers might expect here in game 2 of this series. I know game one saw a higher scoring final result but Im betting the Wizards will feel the effects of a grueling schedule and the physical tenacity of game one which will result in a less explosive offensive effort.    PHILADELPHIA iin 22 games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 215.4 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more are 53-18 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 41-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 27-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 39-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Ok kudos to Dallas in game 1 of this series as they pulled of the upset as dogs. However, now wide awake Im betting on the Clippers coming back here with a huge effort and what Im betting will be a subsequent cover. LA CLIPPERS are 13-4 ATS  after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - when trailing in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 47-8 L/24 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.6 ppg. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Brooklyn took game 1 of this series 103-94 covering as 8.5 point chalk and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. Note: BROOKLYN is 6-0/SU L/6 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons at home.BOSTON is 3-17 ATS   versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Denver will play this game with desperation as they do not want to go down 2-0  to Portland and completely obliterate their home court advantage. Finally adjustments will be made especially from a defensive perspective and their game will take on a stronger defensive focus which Im betting results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the offered total. Note:DENVER is 8-0 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of these tilts ringing in at 212.1 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record for 110-71L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 100-58 L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

Game 1 was a closely contested tilt , with the lead changing  back and forth throughout the contest  in a game that was never controlled by either side. Im betting things don't change that much today making the underdog Heat once again a viable wagering opportunity. Spoelstra is 10-1 ATS  in road games in the 2nd game of a playoff series as the coach of MIAMI. 

MILWAUKEE is 9-24 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season and overall have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 overall including game 1 of this series.

MIAMI is 16-5 ATS  in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 25-12 ATS  against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

No Zig Zag theory in play here. 

Play on the Miami Heat. 

The Knicks have shown a great deal of chemistry this season, and have proven themselves disciplined while implementing a top tier brand of defensive hoops that is difficult to play against as is evident by ranking 1st in ppg defense in the NBA behind  a deliberate  30th ranked pace.  Meanwhile, their first round play off opponents the Atlanta  Hawks, own the 23rd ranked offensive deficiency which does not bode well here in what will be a grinding game that will test their will to grind it out in the key in their own zone. Note: The Knicks took all three meetings this season between these teams, once on the road and twice at home by DDs. Rinse and repeat here in game 1.  

Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Knicks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.NEW YORK is 16-2 ATS   at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.NEW YORK is 16-4 ATS  versus average to sub par  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The Lakers opus Morandi  has  been based on playing solid defense this season, but this team with players like James and Davis can gear it up with the best of teams offensively and today Im betting their going to have to do just that , vs a Suns side that Im betting will be very aggressive in transition .

The suns in their 72 games this season have seen a combined average of 224.8 ppg scored. 

PHOENIX is 8-1 OVER  in home games after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 231.1 ppg going on the score board. 

NBA  teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (LAL/PHOENIX) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, playing with 3 or more days rest are 30-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1

Portland has been on my radar for a while now as the teams chemistry has improved as this season has progressed and look like a viable dark horse entering the play offs. After watching game video of the last time these teams met on May 16th in game the Blazers won 132-116 it became obvious to me that unless the Nuggets made improbable changes that they could find themselves in trouble in this series. Im not counting the Nuggets out in this series, but here in game 1 I am betting they will not make the changes necessary for victory.  

 PORTLAND is 16-7 ATS   in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season. PORTLAND is 19-7 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. PORTLAND is 10-2 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

DENVER is 16-25 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.DENVER is 5-13 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a road loss against a division rival, playing with 3 or more days rest are 12-34 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against  74% conversion rate.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - playing with 3 or more days rest, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 70-19 L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Portland to win

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1

From a power ranking and SRS perspective the superior side here is the Clippers. The Clippers rank 2nd in the league in SRS with a 6.02 data point while the Mavericks rank 9th with a 2.26 mark. When factoring in home court advantage for the Clippers laying single digit lumber is a viable betting opportunity. Note: SRS: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

DALLAS is 1-9 ATS  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season.  Mavericks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 Conference Quarterfinals games.Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 28-2 L/24 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 ppg which qualifies this trend on a ATS line. (Qualifying factor:  Dallas beat the Clippers back in March and LAC lost their last two games this season) 

NBA Home teams (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 24-6 L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

This play off game is being played early in the afternoon here on the west coast, and Im expecting a slower grinding game that will result in a lower scoring affair. Add to that the Clippers modus operandi is based on a more physical precise game plan behind the  28th ranked pace and the 4th best ppg defense and the 10th ranked ppg offense. Under is 6-0-2 in Clippers last 8 playoff games as a favorite.

Meanwhile, Dallas , is 13-1 UNDER   versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 214 ppg scored and are  8-0 UNDER   vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making  39% or better of their attempts this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored  and 12-3 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 216 .6 ppg scored.DALLAS is also 10-1 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 212.5 ppg scored. So what Im getting at  here is that Mavs HC Carlisle adjusts his game against teams like the Clippers which   always look has me look at the offered total with a lower scoring result in mind. With that said, Im betting this number is beatable with an under wager. 

Note: Dallas ranks 9th in ppg defense, and 17 in ppg offense, and run at a slow 24th ranked pace. Under is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 20-6 in Mavericks last 26 games as an underdog.Under is 13-4 in Mavericks last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Play UNDER 

The Golden State Warriors put an all out effort vs the La Lakers last time out and still lost , and will now be in a huge letdown situation that will benefit the tenacious and well conditioned  Memphis Grizzlies . Advantage Memphis. Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

MEMPHIS is 13-5 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.MEMPHIS is 30-16 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.MEMPHIS is 9-1 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.

NBA Road teams (MEMPHIS) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 76-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.  

Play on Memphis to cover 

Indiana plays a one way style of hoops, and cannot adapt  to what can sometimes be a grinding  style play off basketball  in any way shape or form. Its not an attack on them its just the way  their built to run and gun, and thats what they will do. The Pacers rank 5th in pace in the league, 25th in ppg allowed and 6th in ppg offense. Meanwhile, Washington ranked No.1 in pace and 30th in ppg allowed and 3rd in offensive ppg output , and run their attack in a very    similar way  to the Pacers, and operate a game paln that is suited for high octane action. With that said, Im betting on both sides, to come out here and blaze a trail on the court and for this combined score to eclipse this offered number. Yes, the first game only saw 218 combined points but this game Im betting sees the Wizards attack from the beginning and for the Pacers to have to follow suit or be blown off the court. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 50-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 41-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 37-17 OVER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

INDIANA is 7-0 OVER  in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season with a combined average of 239.5 ppg scored. INDIANA is 11-2 OVER after 2 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. Bjorkgren is 10-1 OVER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points as the coach of INDIANA.

Over is 11-1 in Wizards last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 20-6 in Wizards last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1

This was a trigger point of where I wanted to take a stance on this tilt and now at -5 to -6 Im all in here on the defending champion Lakers taking this game and covering the all important number. I know Golden State is red hot and Curry is lighting up the scoreboard for them, but here vs a side that has honed their defensive game (Ranked No.1 in Defensive Efficiency) for much of this season with an eye towards play off hoops, Im betting now with their full compliment of players in the lineup( ie James , Davis ) the Lakers have an advantage with what my power ranking suggest is the superior side.   Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Warriors are  also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.

GOLDEN STATE is 1-10 ATSin road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 57-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a  66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are just 54-244 L/24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% with the ppg diff clicking in at -9.1 ppg which qualifies on a ATS line. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

Western Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1

Memphis ranks 6th in defensive rating in the league and in the middle of the pack in offensive output ppg and as the season was winding down began to play alot more attention to defensive play and ended going under in 6 of their L/7 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile, The Spurs rank 15th in pace and 21st in offensive ppg efficiency and in 3 of their L/9 games failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau against similar type systematic teams ( NYK and twice vs Utah) . Im betting the Spurs one again struggle with flow vs a Grizzlies group that has become well adapted at  suffocating their opponents flow.  MEMPHIS is 15-7 UNDER   in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 215.7 ppg going on the score board in those 22 games.

MEMPHIS is 12-2 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216 ppg going on the scoreboard.  MEMPHIS is 20-8 UNDER in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 218 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - out-rebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 219 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER   in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 12-1 UNDER   in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO/MEMPHIS ) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Washington plays a one way style of wide open hoops, and are not not suited to play off basketball in my humble opinion and will have issues operating in a more physical grinding  environment. Meanwhile, the Celtics now without  the services Jaylen Brown will need to readapt their game, and pay alot more attention to defense in transition which Im betting will help keep this game total combined score stay on the low side of the the total. 

UNDER is 5-0 L/5 meetings.

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON/BOSTON ) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 32-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1

Indiana plays a soft defensive game, and in my humble opinion are not suited well to handle what can be a grinding style of physical play that is often associated with success in the play offs. I know charlotte may not inspire bettors after finishing the season with 5 straight losses, but those loses games against a high level of talented sides, and will have them ready to compete here. 

.CHARLOTTE is 13-2 ATS  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season. 

 INDIANA is 0-8 ATS  in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9 ppg. Bjorkgren is 5-15 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of INDIANA.

NBA Home teams (INDIANA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50%  or more of their shots are 49-104 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Sacramento Im betting goes through the motions today as they wont be in the play offs . Meanwhile, for Utah going into the post season  with positive momentum is important and even though they will rest players during this game are deep enough to come out of this with a comfortable victory. They smashed the Kings 154-105 in their most recent  meeting and have 3 consecutive DD victories in this series. NBA Underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 3-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking at +16 ppg. 

Play on the Jazz to cover

The Heat after going over in 10 straight high octane  games took part in a grinding affair with Philadelphia last time out and came out of it with a 106-94 victory that saw the combined score stay on the low side of the number. Now as the Heat prepare for the post season, with a  looser mind set we have a event that  will set up for a high scoring  affair vs a non post season opponent that will also be playing with nothing to lose which will have them open up. 

  DETROIT is 11-0 OVER  after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.6 ppg. 

Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a road favorite and have gone over in  4 straight  in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 road games. Over is 13-3 in Heat last 16 games as a favorite. 

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play OVER

Brooklyn Im betting will want to finish off their season with a-lot of momentum both from a offensive and defensive perspective which Im betting results in a big time DD victory. 

The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS/SU  after their opponent made at least 10 more free throws than they did last game with each loss coming by 15 or more points with the average ppg diff clicking in by an average of 30.4 ppg. 

CLEVELAND is 9-23 ATS   as a road underdog this season.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

Boston was locked into a spot in the play-in tournament after its 102-94 loss in Cleveland on Wednesday night and find themselves in that spot because of injuries that  have seen them struggle down the stretch. However, Boston is still a viable opponent for this afternoons  competition the Minnesota Wolves who despite of playing better are still a non play off side with some major inconsistencies. 

Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.  

Timberwolves are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite.

Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. Celtics are 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on Boston to cover 

The Lakers who are ranked No.1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency  opus operandi bases it successes and failures on playing a tough defensive system that plays a great deal to transitional play. Considering Indiana runs a all out take no prisoners style of hoops its obvious that two different styles will go  head to head here. However Im betting on the superior side solidifying that future play off game plan by making sure their will is imposed, which will see this game grind at a slower pace than the lines-makers expect or project. Also generally speaking  afternoon action has a way of being slower paced than games played later in the day or night, thus adding to my belief that this combined score fails to eclipse the total. 

Note: Indiana is off a big time offensive slugfest last time out  losing 143-132 to the Bucks  , and Im betting they will regress here with less energy  and offensive efficiency. INDIANA is 21-8 L/29 UNDER  after scoring 130 points  with the average combined score clicking in at 210.6 ppg. INDIANA is 13-3 UNDER  in home games after allowing 130 points  with a combined average of 201.8 ppg. 

LA LAKERS are 28-11 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season with the combined average score of 212.1 ppg going on the board. LA LAKERS are 32-15 UNDER (+15.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with the average combined score clicking at 215.1 ppg .  LA LAKERS are 22-7 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 215.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 130 points or more are 68-34 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 150-96 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Brooklyn has solidified its defensive play of late as they prepare for post season hoops and nothing changes here today vs the Bulls.  Meanwhile, the Bulls continue to play good defense and have held 3 of their L/5 opponents to 99 point ore less. This afternoon Im betting on a continuation of this type of top tier D by both sides in a games that Im betting  stays under the the offered total.  

CHICAGO is 13-3 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 215.4 ppg going on the board. CHICAGO is 12-2 UNDER  against Atlantic division opponents this season with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored.  Under is 9-0 in Bulls last 9 overall. Under is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 games as an underdog.

Under is 9-4 in Nets last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, on Saturday games are 42-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 45-18 L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate of bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting the Jazz will be treating this game like a night off as postseason  basketball approaches.  Injuries are always a concern so Im expecting we see alot of bench players getting more minutes than usual giving us value with a ugly home dog in Oklahoma City.  

The Thunder are 8-1 ATS L/9 overall in this series. 

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse ) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are just 45-82 ATS L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

Utah played last night and are now on tired legs and with the post season almost here will be careful with their existing roster, so some top line players may get more rest than usual. I know Motown may not inspire bettors, but they are capable of a cover here at home, getting points. Note: Detroit got smashed last time out, 119-100 by the Wolves, but the Pistons have proven resilient this season going 11-1 ATS after a 15 point or more loss and is 16-4 ATS  off a home loss this season.

NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 28-6 SU L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate thus giving us value from a league wide  trends perspective getting points. 

NBA Road teams (DENVER) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 33-59 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams (DENVER) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%). are 24-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Suns have gone over 7 straight times and their L/6 games have eclipsed this offered total. Meanwhile, the visiting Blazers are currently in high octane over drive, ranking 5th in the league on ppg offense and 4th in offensive rating, but just 22nd in ppg defense and a ugly 29th ranking in defensive rating. Looking at current form, and the overall data, it becomes obvious that in general terms that this game should be a high scoring slugfest. 

Play OVER 

Minnesota is a winner in back-to-back contests, including a 119-100 rout of Detroit on Tuesday in which it led throughout and have been playing better of late, but tonight they wont be catching the Nuggets asleep at the proverbial wheel, and will have the full attention of what my power rankings suggest is a superior side. Denvers SRS is 6th in the NBA at +6.03 while the Wolves rank 26th with a -5.41 mark, and even with a recent uptick in positive data are still over matched in general terms. Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

MINNESOTA is 1-11 ATS  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 10-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons and 5-0 SU L/5 visits to Minnesota.   Nuggets are 21-4-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Minnesota.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 6-26 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-11 ATS L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The Heat have had great success of late pushing the tempo of their games, and as a result have gone over 10 straight times. Im betting that the Sixers if they are keen on winning this game , will have to match the Heats pace and that will result in a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. 

MIAMI is 8-0 OVER  after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season with the average combined score clicking in at 232.5 ppg.MIAMI is 8-1 OVER  in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season with a. combined 224.9 ppg scored.MIAMI is 12-1 OVER  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 224 ppg scored.

Philadelphia dating back to last season in their L/68 road games have seen a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Rockets obviously have nothing left to play for, but an opportunity to upend  the defending champs Im betting  is something that will motivate them and push them into action. They have been playing a wide open brand of hoops lately and nothing should change here at Staples tonight Note: Houston has  combined with their opponents to average of 250+ ppg in tier L/5 games overall.  Meanwhile, at this time of year teams like the Lakers are gearing up for the play offs and looking to gain momentum. I know the Lakers D has been key to their successes this season, but they also need to generate some offense , and will push forward here aggressively either out of need or greed which will see this tilt turn into a higher scoring game than the pundits might expect.HOUSTON in 7 games  as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season have seen a combined average of 245 ppg scored.Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 overall.

Play OVER 

The Brooklyn Nets played last night in a revenge tilt vs the Bulls and got the redemption they wanted. Now on tired legs as they play back to back games the Nets could find their hands full vs a hungry Popivich crew that are vying for a play off appearance, and also in revenge mode for a loss back on March 1st to these same Nets. Note: The Nets are 3-9 ATS with not rest last 12 overall at home and 0-5 ATS vs non conference opposition. Also HC Pop of the Spurs is an astute student of the game, and when given the opportunity to avenge  a loss vs a foe is 150-78 SU. 

Spurs are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 road games.Spurs are 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Brooklyn.Nets are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 0 days rest.

Play on the Spurs to cover

The Nets continue to play a much better brand of hoops of late as they pay special attention to their defensive responsibilities as the play offs approach. After playing last night the Nets will not be in a run and gun formation anyway and their tired legs could easily see them trying to grind this game down a bit to a slower pace vs the Spurs which should limit wide open back forth action which will relate to a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect.  Nets are 5-1  UNDER L/6 games. The Nets are 0-11 L/11 UNDER at home off a win in a road game in which they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals with a combined average of 199.1 ppg going on the board.

 Under is 16-5 L/21 meetings in Brooklyn. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 25-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 28-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

In the Wizards last 16 games they have won 13 times and lost 3 times twice by 1 point margins and once by 3 points. Washington has proved themselves to be a side that deserves respect when taking points and nothing changes tonight in the rematch vs Atlanta from Monday night where they lost a hard fought 125-124 affair. Even with Bradly Beal out there is enough offence off the bench to get the job done. 

WASHINGTON is 22-10 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at 4.1 ppg. WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS  versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season and 12-4 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making  46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season. 

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

The Chicago Bulls are playing a strong brand of defensive hoops of late holding three straight opponents to less than 99 points, with all 3 affairs generating wins for them.  Im betting that because of their recent successes that type of basketball will continue to be played tonight vs the talented  high flying Brooklyn Nets which will directly effect the pace of this game. Also with the play offs approaching the Nets have noticed are staring to pay attention to a better brand of defensive hoops that has resulted in the under cashing in 8 of their L/12 overall.  CHICAGO is 10-2 UNDER   against Atlantic division opponents this season with a combined average of 215 ppg scored. In 33 home games this season the Bulls have seen a combined average score of 220.4 go on the score board.

CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 11-3 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, on Tuesday nights are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 30-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Clippers are gearing up for play off basketball by playing a top tier brand of D that has resulted in 8 straight unders.With Toronto playing short handed here Im betting Nurse will employ a conservative posture that will see a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.

TORONTO is 13-1 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 206.9 ppg scored.TORONTO is 20-7 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.3 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

The Hornets  are right around the edge of being  No. 10 seed in this year’s Eastern Conference playoff chase and cannot afford anymore losses and Im betting that will see them leave everything on the floor here tonight vs the Nuggets giving us an edge taking points.  It must also be noted that the Hornets have revenge on board for a beating they took in the Mile High city on March 14 which will add to their motivation factors in this spot play.  Note :Denver has lost 3 of their L/4 and are on tired legs after back to back games vs Utah and Brooklyn and now playing their 4th game in 6 nights. 

The home side is 8-0 ATS L/8 meetings in this series.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Golden States Curry has averaged   37.7 per game in his past 15 contests as the Warriors offense goes into warp speed when he is on the floor behind the leagues 2nd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Utah a team that ranks 1st in ppg offense in the league  is more than capable of responding with offensive fireworks of their own, which Im betting will deliver a higher scoring affair that will see this totals number eclipsed. 

Over is 4-1-1 in Jazz last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Warriors/ Jazz 6-0 OVER L/6 meetings . The last 2 meetings this season, have seen 235 and 250 combined points go on the board. 

Play on the OVER 

The Spurs are on the tipping point of a play off or new format play in position, and need wins badly and will play with a desperate edge in this tilt. The Bucks are the superior side, but have been less than reliable  opposition away from home   as is evident by their 14-19 SU  road record would indicate. SAN ANTONIO is 5-0 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons and are 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 meetings at home in this series.

MILWAUKEE is also just 0-9 ATS  against Southwest division opponents this season like San Antonio. MILWAUKEE is 4-12 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.

NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 29-63 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  68% conversion rate.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover

Washington is very under rated here from a data standpoint having lost on 3 times in their L/16 games  with the 3 defeats coming by 1 point two times and 3 points in the other loss. I know Atlanta has really moved up in their respectability status in NBA play, but they are bering over rate here vs a very tough opponent. With revenge on board for a home loss back in the end of January Im betting we see the Wizards in top form and motivated.

The Wizards are 12-0-1 ATS L/13 as a dog off a game as a favorite.  WASHINGTON is 11-0 ATS   after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.

WASHINGTON is 18-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making  50%  or more of their shots are 21-47 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate. 

Play on the Washington. Wizards to cover 

Sacramento beat Oklahoma City 103-99 when they met May 4th in a closely contested game. From a mqtch-up perspective the Thunder are more than capable of covering here. I know the Thunder are near or at the bottom of the league in key stats, but its not like they cant be competitive as was the case recently when they went into Boston and upset the Celtics. So with that said lets just plug our noses and pull the trigger. Note: Thunder are 5-1 with 0/1 rest  situation while the Kings are 0-5 ATS on Sunday as a host.  OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-1 ATS on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons

OKLAHOMA CITY is 40-26 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.. OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-18 ATS   as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-7 ATS  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons

 SACRAMENTO is 3-11 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 69-109 ATS L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate.

Play on the Thunder to cover 

 .

 The Clippers recently completed a three-game season sweep over their crosstown rivals, rolling the Los Angeles Lakers 118-94 on Thursday and its obvious their defense is rolling in top gear, and knowing the Knicks opus operandi is based on top tier defense and nothing changes today as Im betting on a low scoring grinder. 

NEW YORK in 62 games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average of 211.9 ppg scored. 

The Knicks are 0-12 UNDER L/12 with rest coming off a loss in which they led by double digits.

NEW YORK is 19-8 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 52-24 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

This Im betting  will be a hard fought affair that will result in a lower scoring style post season style affair.

The Celtics own an edge here from a system vs system perspective vs Miami and matchup well here despite of the Heats upward momentum and the Celtics inconsistent efforts. 

The Celtics are 12-0 ATS /SU at home with rest after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers last game.

Play on the Celtics to. cover (LATE STEAM)

The Celtics are 16-0 OVER L/16  off a road loss in a in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - off an upset loss of 15 points or more as a road favorite are 27-9 OVER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Miami is 7-0 OVER L/7. 

Play OVER 

Denver has the 9th ranked ppg defense in the NBA and owns the 26th ranked pace. So needless to say they are fairly methodical in their approach considering their successes. Nothing will change tonight at home in the Mile High city  against a talented Nets group that despite of being able to put points on the board in bunches  knows playing a better brand of defense as the post season approaches is very important. With that said, Im betting that this game will see some special attention to playing good transitional hoops which will reflect a muted response  on the score board then the pundits might expect. 

BROOKLYN is 8-1 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 225.2 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 24-11 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored in those 35 titls. 

DENVER is 10-1 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Houston has been opening up of late, and are off a big time back and forth tilt vs Milwaukee last time out losing by a 141-131 count. However today Im betting on regression from the Rockets offense and energy depletion to rare its ugly head as they play their 5th game in 8 nights. Meanwhile, Utah is off a hard fought tilt vs Denver last night, and will also find them selves playing on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state which Im betting produces a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. 

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 23-11-1 in Rockets last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

HOUSTON is 25-6 UNDER L/31 vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 22-12 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored. 

 UTAH is 13-5 UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - a very good team (7 or more  PPG diff.) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/24 seasons  for a 86% conversion rate. 

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play UNDER

The Jazz are off a hard fought affair vs the Nuggets last time out and are now in an emotional letdown state and lacking overall energy and Im sure in some ways they are over looking the Rockets. With that said, there is value taking points here with a Houston side that is  11-1 as visiting underdogs of 4 points or more more vs .700  or better  opposition. Meanwhile, the Jazz are just 1-5 ATS L/6 after facing the Nuggets. 

HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS ( in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBAFavorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, playing on back-to-back days are 15-37 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rockets to cover

Spurs are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game in 7 days and off a game last night. That will effect their pace, vs a Portland side that has allowed their opposition 109 points or less in 4 of their L/6 games. The Spurs are 0-14 UNDER L/14 off a game as a favorite in which they committed fewer than 15 fouls. 

Under is 7-2 in Trail Blazers last 9 games as a home favorite.

Under is 9-3 in Trail Blazers last 12 home games.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 60-28 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

The Raptors who are 4-0 ATS L/4 may no long er be a championship calibre side, but they are still no pushovers, and are more than capable of being competitive tonight vs the visiting Grizzlies even with injuries and key players out. Grizzlies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Raptors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Toronto is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series as hosts. Grizzlies are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Nurse is 57-35 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of TORONTO

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 18-65 L/24 seasons for a  go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Toronto  to cover

Washington continues to play an all out brand of wide open hoops, but after two exhausting game in a row vs Milwaukee and and Toronto Im betting the Wizards hit the wall here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. The Wizards did beat Indiana 154-141 when they played last week, but the Pacers stayed competitive in that tilt, and are more than capable of upending their opponent in the rematch. The Pacers are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 meetings in Indiana. 

Wizards are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 18-65 L/24 seasons for a  go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Pacers to cover

The 76ers now on a 7 game win streak will be paying attention here tonight, as they are still looking to secure top seed in the east. Add to that revenge for a ugly DD loss to the Pistons in the Motown the last time these teams met and you now have a situation that bodes well for a beatdown scenario. 

The Seventysixers are 16-0-1 ATS/16-0 SU as a favorite after being outscored in the paint by at least 6 points last game.

The Pistons are 0-15-3 ATS /0-18 SU as a dog coming off a 10+ point win.

DETROIT is 1-10 ATS  off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the 76ers to cover 

NY has played some great hoops behind a fantastic work ethic, and chemistry, but the young Suns have matured quickly and have stood up to some of the best teams in the league and prevailed. I know the Knicks are out looking to avenge a 118-110 home loss to the Suns back on April 26th in NY city but my power rankings suggest the Suns are the superior side, and in most circumstances would prevail in a matchup with the Knicks. Also this is NYKs fourth straight road game and they looked pooped last time out in Denver losing 113-97, most probably because of the high octane effort they consistently put out. Meanwhile, the Suns after a night off where they looked asleep at the wheel in a ugly 135-103 loss to Atlanta will be primed to bounce back. Note: NYK is just 1-5 ATS vs Pac division opposition as 8 point underdogs  or less. The Suns are 5-0 ATS/SU  L/5 in this series.PHOENIX is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

Play on Phoenix to win /cover

Oklahoma City rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency , and have failed to eclipse the 99 point threshold in 4 of their L/6 overall while Golden State despite of super star Curry in the lineup are ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency. When these teams played back in the middle of April the Warriors put 147 points on the board vs the Thunder, and now in the return matchup Ok City will out be looking to slow this game down to a crawl which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. Note: In that game where the Warriors pounded 147 points on the board the Thunder shot just over 25% from the Field and just 56% from the charity stripe. Advantage under. 

GOLDEN STATE is 24-12 UNDER  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217 ppg going on the score board. GOLDEN STATE is 34-19 UNDER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 222.8 ppg going on the board.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-9 UNDER  in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 216 ppg scored in those tilts.OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.2 ppg. 

These teams have gone under 10 straight times here in Oakland. 

Play UNDER

Atlanta played a hard fought game against a top tier opposition ( Phoenix) last night and are now on tired legs and in emotional letdown spot after recording an all out impressive 135-103 victory. The Hawks never let up and played all out, because of their obvious respect for their opponent  which will see them Im betting start slowly tonight vs the Pacers. ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS  in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 3-0 SU L/3 at home in this series.ATLANTA is 24-41 ATS   in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 season.

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Wizards played a back forth tilt vs the Bucks last night and lost by a 135-134 count and will now both be on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state which makes them susceptible to a down performance vs a Raptors side that has won 8 straight meetings in this series SU. 

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to win 

Washingtons offense remains consistent and explosive and there have been few to any regressions after big offensive outputs like the one they just had against Indiana winning a 151-141 slugfest.  The Wizards rank 1st in pace 4th in ppg offense and 29th in ppg defense,  Needless to say their style of hoops bases its successes and failures on run and gun basketball with a no prisoners attitude on display and nothing will change here tonight vs a Bucks team that can put a bucketload full of points on the board as well, via a offense that ranks 1st in ppg offense in the NBA , behind the 3rd ranked pace and 21st ranked ppg.  defense . After playing last night, the Bucks will be on tired legs, so Washington will push with extreme prejudice, which Im betting leads to an all out back and forth tilt that will see very little defense played. First team to 130 points wins.   WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 250.2 ppg going on the score board. Four of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this total .Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 7-0 in Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. 

Play OVER

Memphis has struggled of late, losing 4 of their L/5 while Minnesota with Towns back int he lineup are playing much better winning 5 of their L/6. However despite of the divergence in fortunes recently the Grizzlies matchup well vs the Wolves, according to my power rankings and deserve respect here as short favs. Minnesota ranks 26th in the league SRS -6,71 , while Memphis is ranked 13th in SRS, with a +0.96 mark. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

MEMPHIS is 11-3 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

MEMPHIS is 20-9 ATS  against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on the Grizzlies to cover 

Atlanta ranks 9th in the league in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency  while the Phoenix Suns rank 7th in offensive efficiency and from a head to head stand point Im betting on that efficiency and lack of it on the Hawks part will lead us over the total in this contest.  ATLANTA is 9-1 OVER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 238.9 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 8-0 OVER  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 233.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average 232.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 84-54 OVER L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 56-35 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

LA has taken a breather from their heavy schedule of late with a few days off and will be fresh and ready to get back on track after suffering 3 straight losses. Meanwhile, the Raptors are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game against quality opposition, which makes them susceptible to exhaustion as this tilt progresses. LA CLIPPERS are 10-0 ATS   after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with the ppg dif clicking in at just over 22 ppg. The Raptors are 0-10-1 ATS L/11 coming off a win where they scored 15+ points more expected. ( that happened vs the Lakers) 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Golden State played last night against this same Pelicans side and beat them 123-108. Both sides looked motivated, but some exhaustion  issues were evident. Im betting both these sides, will once again have a hard time finding their legs here in this late season battle and the combined score will end up on the lower side of the offered total. 

Golden State has gone under in 6 of their L/8 while New Orleans has gone under in 5 of their L/6. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  in road games when playing on back-to-back days this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg going on the board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 UNDER when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 56-29 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Bucks have proved they can stand tall against sides like Brooklyn and Im betting they can handle them here again tonight. Note: The Bucks are 21-10 SU at home and this is where they play their best hoops. 

MILWAUKEE is 31-16 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots over the last 3 seasons. 

Nets are 11-28-1 ATS in the last 40 meetings.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-11 L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

NYK is the real deal and continue to prove it during a 12-1 SU ATS L/13 run. Meanwhile, Memphis has lost 3 of his L/4 tilts and despite of being viable side, they are not currently in top form and are 14-17 L/31 at home this season and wobbly favorites. 

 NEW YORK is 16-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

NEW YORK is 23-6 ATS   when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

The Knicks are 17-0 ATS /15-2 SU  after allowing at least 50 points in the paint last game. the two losses came by 2 and 3 points. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover

The Pelicans are off three straight road games with the last a grueling OT affair vs the Wolves. Now in a physical and emotional letdown state the Pelicans will have their hands full with a Golden State side that needs wins badly. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-14 ATS  as a home favorite this season.

GOLDEN STATE is 33-13 L/46 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season .

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA  Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 7-31 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 30-6 SU/ 30-5-1 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

Indiana were clipped 132-124, as 7-point home dogs the  last  time  these two sides met  in late March. Now in revenge mode I expect the Pacers to be motivated and to play a strong competitive game.   Note: The Wizards are  1-12-2 ATS at home in   this series when the Pacers are out looking to get even while the Pacers are a perfect  5-0 SUATS L/5 in this series when in revenge mode for a 7 or more point defeat. 

NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making  50% or better  of their shots are just 46-102 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Orlando has gone over in 9 of their L/11 overall  and with nothing left to play for should play looser and just look to pad stats. 'Im betting on Detroit also opening up in the same fashion and for this tilt to eclipse the total. Over is 5-1 in Magic last 6 games as an underdog. Over is 21-10-1 in Pistons last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

ORLANDO is 10-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.9 ppg scored. 

ORLANDO is 8-0 OVER  after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 233.2 ppg scored. 

 Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.

 Play OVER 

Im not a big proponent of laying points with a road side, but their are matchup instances where I feel comfortable enough to do so and this is one of those situations. It must be noted that San Antonio comes home after a grueling hard fought 4 game road trip that concluded with a  143-140 loss to the Celtics in Boston and now exhausted with this being their 8th game in 14 days  and in a emotional letdown situation are susceptible to down effort. SAN ANTONIO is 10-21 ATS  in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is i15-31 ATS  after a combined score of 245 points or more. 

SAN ANTONIO is 0-7 ATS  in home games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games this season. SAN ANTONIO is 4-12 ATS  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more. are 26-1 with the average margin ppg diff  clicking in at  +13.7 ppg. 

NBARoad favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-11 ATS L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

With nothing left to play for Im betting the Rockets will run here with wreck-less abandon but the Knicks will not allow this game to be wide open and will be out to control the pace. The Knicks own both the top ppg defense and the slowest pace in the league and Im betting their will to make this a grinding affair will outwill the Rockets need to rack up stats. With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total. 

NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a  combined average of 195.5 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER  versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, a terrible team (25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

This is a big game for both sides, but my power rankings suggest the Blazers matchup well  here. The Blazers lost by 1 point the last time these teams played, but with redemption as an added motivational factor the Blazers are the right side. Note: PORTLAND is 26-13 ATS  in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 26-1 L/24 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Portland Blazers to win 

Today I waited to see if Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo would play and he is listed as probable. The last time these top tier teams played the Nets took a closely contested 125-123 victory , but that was with Harden in the lineup. I know the pundits love the Nets, but their biggest weakness remains their defense that allows struggle   117.2 points per 100 possessions and Im betting they are vulnerable in this spot. Meanwhile, The Bucks  own a  w a +5.9 point differential per 100 possessions, 5th best in the league and are top 10 defense that deserves respect especially here at home. Note: Nets: 1-5 away against Central division sides.  Bucks: 6-0 as conference  home favs  vs  .600 or better  opponents. 

NBA Home favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 54-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Both sides can score, that is an obvious point. However, this tilt Im betting will be a hard fought physical play off affair as both sides look to send a pre play off message to each other. BROOKLYN is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in road games vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making  39% or more  of their attempts with a combined average of 207 ppg.  MILWAUKEE is 17-5 UNDER  in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-3 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

When Karl Anthony Towns is in the Minnesota Wolves lineup this Wolves team seem to find cohesion and chemistry and must not be underestimated. I know the Wolves beat the Pelicans the last time they met 135-105, and now the visiting side is looking for revenge, but unfortunately the matchup stats from the last clash tells me a comparatively  different story. Like Mick Jagger said in his iconic song, You don't always get what you want. Advantage Minnesota. 

NEW ORLEANS is 12-21 ATS  as a favorite this season.  Pelicans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.  

Timberwolves are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. 

Pelicans are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves

My projections estimate that this total should be closer to 212 which gives us more than a 1 possession advantage on this total to the over.

MIAMI is 10-0 OVER  as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-5 OVER versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 overall.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a favorite.Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less differential), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 24-3 OVER  L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

 NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two struggling  defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games 36-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play OVER

Golden State is no longer a team that can just beat up on opponents   behind an explosive offense as they only rank 21st in offensive rating and as a result  their defense has had to ramp itself up as is evident in ranking 9th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, they now go against a Rockets side that rank 27th in offensive rating. I know both sides like to run at a faster pace their efficiencies and deficiencies dictate uneven proficiency from a offensive standpoint giving us value with an under wager on this offered totals number. The Rockets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a home dog coming off a home win with a combined average of 207.4 ppg. 

HOUSTON is 21-11 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Pistons were dealing with some fatigue issues recently but now with a couple of days rest Im betting they are ready to compete again, especially against an inconsistent side like Charlotte who according to my projections does not deserve to be this big a favorite. Note: The Pistons also have the added incentive and motivation to get revenge for  105-102 loss to the Hornets on March 11. 

DETROIT is 21-5 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. DETROIT is 14-2 ATS   off a home loss this season.( The Pistons lost last time out and have proven to be a big bounce back side to back when that happens) Pistons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.

NBA Road teams (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 114-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

We have two top tier sides ready to do battle here tonight in Phoenix . However, one team stands out in this matchup as being superior and also being very motivated with double revenge on board and that side is the Utah Jazz who own the  leagues best  scoring margin at +9.5 PPG and 2nd best in DFG percentage. Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.

Utah Jazz own the leagues best SRS mark at 9.46 while the Phoenix Suns rank 4th at 5.77.  Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

 NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 58-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

With Irving out, the Blazers Im betting have an edge in this contest. The Nets are also on tired legs after playing last night and have not been good bets in back to back affairs. Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 0 days rest.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-5 L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-6 SU L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Portland to win 

The Celtics are increasing their pace and offensive aggressiveness of late and have gone over in 3 straight games, and Im betting they will press the action again and turn this into a scoring fest.

The Spurs are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

SAN ANTONIO is 27-15 OVER   in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-28 OVER (+10.2 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. 

BOSTON is 21-9 OVER  after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

The Pelicans enter this game having lost 6 of their L/8 and are a hard fought 114-112 loss vs the Denver Nuggets last time out and could easily be susceptible to a emotional letdown scenario. NEW ORLEANS is 11-21 ATS as a favorite this season. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.  Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

NBA  team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 25-58 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The Thunder took a 111-110 win las time these teams met this season)

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

The Raptors according to my power rankings matchup well vs the Nuggets, and earlier this season gave them a good beating. I know the Nuggets are out looking for revenge, but they are on tired legs and off a grueling affair vs the Pelicans last time out pulling off a 114-112 win and susceptible to a letdown scenario.  DENVER is 4-12 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season . Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Nurse is 11-1 ATS  in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots as the coach of TORONTO.

NBA Home teams (DENVER) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 26-54 ATS L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.


 Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

The Pelicans have gone under in 3 straight games and have played good defence of late, and Im betting they remain on the path here tonight vs a Thunder side that is ranked 28th in ppg offence this season. Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored. 

The Thunder are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a dog coming off a win in which they had more turnovers than assists with a combined average of 199.9 ppg scored. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored.

NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a close road loss of 3 points or less are 38-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Minnesota is in a groove and have won 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 and in their current form must be respected as home underdogs vs an over hyped Golden State brand. 

GOLDEN STATE is 7-15 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season.GOLDEN STATE is 21-38 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.  Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Warriors are 9-30 ATS in their last 39 Thursday games. Warriors have failed to cover 6 of L/8 at Minnesota. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 7-29  L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover

Indiana after allowing +130 points last time out in a lopsided loss will try to get back to defensive basics here this evening vs the run and gun Nets which Im betting will be deflating to this combined score to to low side of the offered totals number. Note:  Pacers Domantas Sabonis is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs Brooklyn ( Back ) and this Im betting effects positive flow for the Pacers and will directly impact offensive output, making playing a better brand of D of utmost importance. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Suns come home off an exhausting 5 game road trip and will time to get acclimated to home cooking again, and are at a disadvantage vs a Clipper side that would love to send a message to their upstart conference rivals. Note: Suns: 2-13  L/15 home after  5 or more road games. 

LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

My projections make this total closer to 217. Great value here with an over wager if generalities play out. 

The Spurs are 12-0-1 OVER L/13  as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with the average combined score clicking in at 237 ppg. MIAMI is 11-2 OVER  in home games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER  in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting  24 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.   MIAMI is 23-9 OVER   in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 154-95 OVER  L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over 

Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight, which will have them in chase mode which bodes well in a garbage time scenario  for an over wager to cash  .  My projections estimate that the Celtics will put close to 117 points on the board with Charlotte projected to put 103 points on the scoreboard. Which gives us a full possession advantage on this total.  Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite.

CHARLOTTE is 9-0 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Borrego is 15-2 OVER  in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight. Boston is off three straight losses and will be primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side that smashed them 125-104 a couple of days ago. 

BOSTON is 16-4 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Hornets are 0-7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Boston.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a home loss are 115-65 ATS L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Celtics to cover

Orlando has gone over in 7 of their L/8 games and Im betting on a more uptempo game than the first two meetings in this series back in January. Advantage over. 

ORLANDO is 25-7 OVER  versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 9-1 OVER  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. 

 CLEVELAND is 23-12 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a losing record are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

 Both sides may not inspire bettors but according to my projections the Wolves are the better side, and have been competitive lately with their star Towns back in the lineup winning 3 of their L/5 and showing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the rockets have lost 14 of their L/16 overall and rarely look like their doing anything but going through the motions.  

HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS   off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog over the last 3 season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( as a home underdog of 6 points or less this seasonHOUSTON is 7-24 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season

NBA  Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover