Dallas has gone over in 7 straight times and 8 of their L/9 games overall, while their opponents tonight the Grizzlies have gone over the total 11 of their L/13 overall. Over is 8-0 in Grizzlies last 8 games as an underdog including 6 straight on the road.Over is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 games as a home favorite. Over is 11-1 in Mavericks last 12 games as a favorite. These teams are trending towards high scoring back and forth affairs and have gone over in 4 of their L/5 meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. 

Play OVER

Houston will play for the first time since Feb. 17 following consecutive postponements and Im betting will have plenty of energy after extended rest to turn this game into a fast paced affair that favors this tilt going over the set total according to my projections. Note: The Rockets rank 3rd in pace in the league. 

Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. 

Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 overall.Over is 11-5 in Rockets last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Houston.

Play OVER

The Thunder are off an ugly effort last time out vs the Bucks , but will be primed for a bounce back effort vs a Cleveland team that have beaten 4 straight times over the last few seasons. Note: The Cavaliers are 0-15-1 ATS L/16 with less than two days rest when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.  Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Thunder are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 

Cleveland is also off a DD (17 pt) loss to Denver last time out, and are just  0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and  are just  0-11 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive unders, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) are 59-26 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Boston despite of a day off yesterday is on tired legs and Im betting  will want to slow this game down behind the 23rd ranked pace in the NBA including 6th ranked ppg defence. This Celtics team has been inconsistent offensively ranking 22nd in ppg offence so it will be imperitive they control the pace. This will lead to combined score that remains on the low side of the total. Note:  In the Celtics last six games,  they own the league’s sixth-highest Defensive Rating at 107.5 ppg. 
BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER

Washington enters this game on tired legs as this is their 8th game in a 2 week period and are jet lagged after traveling from east to west and still adapting to a new time zone, which Im betting effects their offensive flow. This will have a direct effect on the total combined score of this tilt vs their host the Portland Blazers.  WASHINGTON is 9-0 UNDER  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - in non-conference games, off a road win are 35-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Portland has won and covered 6 straight games and 8 of their L/9 overall and come into this game playing at a very high level and must be be respected here as short home chalk. I know that Wizards have been playing decent ball as well winning 3 straight as underdogs, but now after traveling form east to west will be a jet  lagged despite of not playing in a couple days and still adapting to a new time zone Note: Brooks is 7-22 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest as the coach of WASHINGTON. 

Wizards are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdogs and  are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 2 days rest.Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.

Play on Portland to cover

Milwaukee is in the midst of a five-game losing streak and now on tired legs after playing last night. HC Mike Budenholzer's now says the team has to get back to basics and pay attention to defense in transition , whichIm betting effects the combined score of this game.  

MILWAUKEE is 17-5  L/22 UNDER   in home games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games with a combined average of 189.4 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 29-16 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons for a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. 

Atlanta continues to force teams into fast paced , all out run and gun affairs and nothing will change tonight vs the high powered  Boston Celtics .

Pierce is 13-2 OVER  when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days as the coach of ATLANTA with a combined average of 248.1 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 17-7 OVER  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.8 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ATLANTA) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 43-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 43-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

Denver is off a down  effort last time out, and a subsequent 129-98  loss . Note: DENVER is 10-2 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 230.3 ppg. With that said, I look for  Denver to come out here with a big time run and gun start to finish effort and their hosts the Cleveland Cavs will have not choice but to keep up and to try to push forward with some offensive fireworks of their own which will push us towards a over wager. 

DENVER is 14-4 OVER versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 227.9 ppg and is  is 10-2 OVER  versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  this season with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. DENVER is 14-4 OVER when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 231.1 ppg scored. 

NBA team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 38-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 31-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

After blowing a big lead last night and losing in embarrassing fashion Im betting the Heat will come out here tonight and start firing on all cylinders and hold nothing back and take nothing for granted  and keep pouring points down even if leading big late . Meanwhile the Kings will have no option but to fire back with some offensive fire works of their own or be blown off the court which Im betting results in a high scoring affair. 

SACRAMENTO is 22-8 OVER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 236.1 ppg scored. 

 The Kings are 19-0 OVER as a dog with rest coming off a home game that had 8+ lead changes with the average combined score of 242 ppg scored.

Play on the Over 

NBA  team (MIAMI) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Before last nights  loss, Memphis hadn't given up more than 134 points in any game this season and the Grizzlies hadn't lost by more than 19. It was definitely embarrassing, and Im betting on this hard working well conditioned young group to now be ready to rebound in this spot vs Oklahoma City. MEMPHIS is 23-11 ATS  against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Grizzlies to cover 

Phoenix is on a season-best six-game winning streak and has won nine of its last 10 games and now get to face a Brooklyn side on tired legs after playing last night. PHOENIX is 7-0 ATS in home games in non-conference games this season with average margin of victory clicking in at 9.9 ppg .  The Suns are 10-0 ATS/SU L/10 off a 10+ point win which is the case after a 109-90 win vs Orlando last time out. 

Play on The Suns to cover 

The Heat are getting healthy again, and are looking more like a eastern conference contender again and tonight they get my support getting points vs the Clippers. I know the Heat had a 4 game losing streak end against red hot Utah last time out, but according to my power rankings this is a much better matchup for them based on system vs system data.Heat are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Golden State is getting far to much respect here vs a well conditioned Cleveland side that must not be underestimated despite of an extended bad run and  having played last night. With veteran Andre Drummond expected back in the lineup tonight for the Cavs, Im expecting his presence to  keep this team focused vs a Warriors side that could easily be over looking their downtrodden opponent. 

Clippers are 1-10 ATS at home vs unrested opposition. 

 GOLDEN STATE is 17-34 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 27-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Miami,  ranks near the bottom of the NBA at 106.2 points scored per game. As a team, the Heat are shooting 35.7 percent from 3-point range to rank in the bottom third of the league. Their key to success thus will be based on defense, and nothing changes tonight here on the road. This will help lead to a combined score that remains on the low side of the total.

The Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, and I plan on riding this run until the wheels fall off. The Jazz are 17-0 ATS /SU  as a favorite off a win.

Play on Utah to cover

The Hawks have covered  6 of their L/7 games as chalk, behind  super star Trae Young who   is currently averaging 26 points and 9.4 assists per game, and Im betting on them out dueling the Knicks tonight. 

The Hawks enter this game with a 6-1 ATS record in a 1/1 rest situation. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 23-3 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 23-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Atlanta Hawks 

Houston Rockets guard John Wall will visit the nation's capital for the first time since being acquired from the Washington Wizards prior to the 2020-21 season and Im betting will be juiced up to play and have is energy take the Rockets to the promised land in this spot play. He said he did not appreciate being traded by the Wizards and was disrespected by their choice not to include him in their discussions. Pay back time is at hand. 

The Wizards are 0-16-1 ATS /0-17 SU off a win as a dog where they made at least 10 more free throws than their opponent.

Play on Houston to win 

The Nuggets were eliminated from the play off bubble last season by the Lakers and than were smashed by the Lakers in their first meeting this season. Now Im betting the Nuggets will come out breathing fire tonight in an attempt to get back some respect and get some form of redemption . Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

 Lakers are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Denver.

NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent are 35-18 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

The Lakers who rank 1st in defensive rating in the league especially  pay strict attention to transition and are talented enough to control the flow of a game. They have become extremely disciplined and if down by substantial amount will not deter from their style of play. This Im betting will see this combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 211.7 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 9-0 UNDER  in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 203.8 ppg. LA LAKERS are 11-0 UNDER  in road games versus defenses - allowing 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 209.5 ppg scored.LA LAKERS are 14-4 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 214.5 ppg. Vogel is 14-2 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 204.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 33-10 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

play under 

The Suns won their fifth straight game Saturday afternoon, outlasting the visiting Philadelphia 76ers 120-111 which was a followup to a win vs Milwaukee in their previous game. After playing those two top tier teams, Im betting the Suns will be in a letdown mode and vulnerable vs an opponent they may be over looking.PHOENIX is 4-17 ATS   in home games after scoring 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The series visitor is 11-1 ATS L/12 meetings.PHOENIX is 3-13 ATS   in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (ORLANDO) - off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 24-5 ATS L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. ( Orlando took a 123-112 win vs the Kings last time out) -Also Clifford is 24-7 ATS  after scoring 120 points or more as the coach of ORLANDO.

Play on Orlando to cover

HC Van Gundy despite of wanting his team to play attention to defense, continues to get negative results with his teams defending. Van Gundy's New Orleans Pelicans have surrendered 25 3-point makes in each of their last two games and are not reliable favs here in this spot when considering their inability to keep teams from destroying them in transition.  DETROIT is 12-3 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  on the season, red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 6-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Detroit to cover

The well rested Raptors have won 16 straight games at home against the Timberwolves and Im betting on a conclusive 17 straight win tonight . Previous to a loss last time out vs the Celtics the Raptors had found their offensive groove pounding out 5 straight 121 plus point outputs. After a few days of home cooking Im now betting on a big time effort from the Raptors, vs a Wolves side that has allowed a whopping an average  118.7 ppg on the road this season . 

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Utah have won 17 of their L/18 games, and are arguably the hottest team in the league entering this game against visiting Miami. The Heat are no pushovers but with the way the Jazz are playing it wont be a difficult to ride their momentum as home  favorites in this spot. 

UTAH is 8-1 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. UTAH is 16-4 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. The Jazz are 16-0 ATS /SU as a favorite coming off a win. UTAH is 9-0 ATS  after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season

MIAMI is 0-7 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread this season.

Play on Utah to cover 

Brooklyns fast paced run and gun system matches up well vs a Golden State side that likes to play the same style of hoops. BROOKLYN is 15-5 ATS against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites (BROOKLYN) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 28-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Phoenix is playing some fine hoops but Im betting that their current good run will come to an abrupt end in this afternoon game. After working hard last time out  and coming back from 16 points down and shooting 52.9 % to  notch a    125-124 upset victory over  Milwaukee  could easily find it difficult  to get up for this tilt and show the same intensity.  Note: The Suns are 0-8 ATS  at home with more than one day of rest coming off a win in a home game. The Suns are 0-6 ATS L/6 as a home dog after a win in which they trailed by double digits.. The Suns are 0-15 ATS L/15 with more than one day of rest after they shot over 50% from the field. 

PHOENIX is 1-10 ATS  in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

NBAHome underdogs (PHOENIX) - in non-conference games, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 39-81 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. 

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover

The Lakers D,  and not their star offensive power is what makes them as good as they are. The Lakers rank 2nd in the league in ppg allowed and and 17th in pace, and as per usual they dictate the tone of game and nothing will change tonight, which Im betting helps keep this combined score on the low side of the total. LA LAKERS are 8-1 UNDER  against Southwest division opponents this season with a combined average 217.1 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 14-3 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored.

This is a top tier event between two of the best teams in the NBA. My projections however, place the Jazz having the edge playing here at home. The last time these teams met  the Jazz knocked down a franchise-record 25 3-pointers in a 131-118 victory at Milwaukee earlier this season, and have an edge again tonight even though the Bucks have revenge on board. 

MILWAUKEE is 7-20 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons and 7-17 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

The Jazz are 15-0 ATS/SU L/15  as a favorite coming off a win which is the case. 

UTAH is 20-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996.

Play on Utah to cover

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 42-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

After playing good D for an extended time the Dallas D, has looked a little tattered by has seen a regression to point allowed in their last 3 games, and according to my projections that positive defensive trajectory will continue in this spot vs the Pelicans tonight. Meanwhile, New Orleans  has also been playing very good defense with an exception last time out vs Chicago. However, today Im betting on Van Gundy's squad getting  back to business and makes sure their transition game and 3 point defense is focused on which will help keep this score on the low side of the total.Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER  after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher in all games he has coached  with a combined score of 197 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Philadelphia is red hot, and Im betting on the Blazers trying to be more physical with their opponent in an effort to slow them down and take away from their flow. this Im betting results in a lower scoring tilt than the lines makers are expecting. 

Under is 5-2 in 76ers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Rivers is 37-20 UNDER  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 197.1 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 30-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Detroit ranks 23rd in offence behind the 24th ranked pace, while Indiana is ranked middle of the road in all key categories. From a projections stand point my number is closer to 216 which gives us a one possession advantage to the under. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after a game where they covered the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 36-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, vs. division opponents are 216- 142 L/24 seasons for a 60% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

The Raptors have had this game circled on their schedule for a while, as they look for revenge for a Celtics team that eliminated from last seasons play off bubble. With the Celtics  off an extended road trip, Im betting they will take time to get used to home cooking and vulnerable in this spot vs a Raptors side that has surpassed 120 points in each of their past five games. 

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Milwaukee is off a big time effort last time out vs Denver. and are vulnerable to be upset here vs a Suns side that has won and cover 6 of their L/7 overall. The Bucks win was a double revenge scenario for two losses last season, so the Bucks came in prepared and put in a start to finish effort last time out in the High altitudes of Denver, which will have them on tired legs here and in an emotional letdown state . Note:Phoenix is 33-4 SU L/37 in this series , including 10-2 ATS in tilt  where the  Bucks own an above .500 record including  6-0 ATS at home. 

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in five consecutive games, with a winning record on the season are 5-28 SU L/24 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Phoenix  Suns to cover 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 32-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Los Angeles lost 119-115 to the Boston Celtics on Friday and 113-110 to the Sacramento Kings two nights later and not at the top of their game entering this tilt and vulnerable here to another down effort on the road. Note: Minnesota has covered 6 straight and are in a competitive mode right now . Home underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 51-22 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

  The Pacers Im betting are good bets to halt a three-game losing streak Wednesday night against the defensively deficient Brooklyn Nets  that is also on a 3 game losing streak and  will be on tired legs tonight. BROOKLYN is 8-21 ATS  when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits here and get the nod to cover. Note: The Nets are 0-17-1 ATS /2-16 SU with no rest after allowing 50-plus points in the paint last game which was the case yesterday. 

Play on Indiana to cover

NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record are 15-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Tuesday's contest will be the ninth road outing in 11 games for Boston and are on tired legs and vulnerable here in Salt Lake city. 

The Jazz are 14-0 ATS /SU  as a favorite coming off a win.

Orlando will enter off a two-game split at Chicago where they won the first game 123-119 against the Bulls but dropped the rematch 118-92 on Saturday. It was the fifth time the Magic were held to 92 points or less this season. With that said, Im betting the Magic are just not fluid enough offensively to hang here. The Magic are 0-10 ATS/SU  after allowing 50-plus points in the paint last game and have failed to coved by more than 16 ppg. 

Play on Portland to cover 

The Bucks are know for their offense but their defense is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency and will be key here tonight in the Mile High City vs the Nuggets. Meanwhile, Denver is ranked 28th in pace, and will be prepared to grind away here in an effort to slow down the Bucks. MILWAUKEE is 11-1 UNDER  off a road blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out vs Cleveland in a 124-99 victory. The average combined score of those 12 games rings in at 219 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 38-11 UNDER 24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 77-37 L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Milwaukee is 9-40 all-time in games played in Denver and lost both matchups last season and according to my projections are being over rated against a Nuggets team that knows how to slow this opponent. Look for Nuggets super star Jokic to out duel,Giannis Antetokounmpo and company and get us the cover.MILWAUKEE is 5-15 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 6-19 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons.DENVER is 18-7 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Denver to cover

Minnesota has had some breakdowns of late, but for the most part have been very competitive covering 5 straight games. Meanwhile, Dallas continues to struggle having lost 7 of their L/9 with the victories coming by 5 and 2 points. Anything at or better offers good line value here.DALLAS is 1-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games this season which is the case entering this tilt. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS  as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS/1-6 SU L/7 at home as chalk. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

NBA Road teams (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 25-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Hornets,   host the Houston Rockets on Monday in the second game of a back-to-back. The Hornets won the fiorst game  but Im betting their luck runs out here tonight. Borrego is 3-13 ATS   in home games after a win by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  Play on Houston to cover

Miami has had a very rigorous schedule, and are on tired legs against what my power rankings estimate to be the best conditioned team in the NBA . Note:MIAMI is 5-15 ATS   when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. The Heat previous to a blowout win last time out had lost 7 of 8, and just don't look like solid favs in this spot. Recently  the  Heat have accumulated a  4-13 ATS (record ) after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons and are fade material for me once again in this spot play vs a up trending NY Knicks team. 

Knicks HC Thibodeau is 105-77 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game in all games he has coached in his pro carrier. 

NY Knicks to cover

Two sides playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum go head to head this Sunday afternoon in NBA action. The Jazz who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on tired legs  are in top form having won 14 of their L/15 games. Meanwhile, the Pacers have lost 4 of their L/5 , but have been competitive this season, and must be respected as home underdogs. 
NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - off a road win by 10 points or more, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are  22-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - off a road win by 10 points or more, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days have lost 20 of 30 SU L/5 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

According to my power rankings this Bradley Beals lead Wizards side matchs up very well vs the Charlotte Hornets and give me enough edge on the offered line to recommend we back them here this afternoon. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 3-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  on the season, after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 8-33 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover

I know the Lakers have revenge on board for a surprising loss to the Pistons earlier this season , but the  Pistons play a type of hoops that actually matches up well against the obviously more talented team. Also despite of their ugly W/L record Detroit has covered 11 of their L/19 and are well conditioned enough to make the Lakers work hard for a win here on the road despite of them playing last night.

DETROIT is 10-2 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots this season. LA LAKERS are 12-29 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons

NBA Underdogs (DETROIT) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 26-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Detroit to cover

The New Orleans Pelicans have struggled to find consistency this season.But they have won four of their last six games after holding on for a 114-113 win at Indiana on Friday but now on tired legs in this back to back situation Im betting the Grizzlies who are 7-2 L/9  have the edge. Note: Grizzlies: 5-0 ATS L/5 as division  road dogs of  6  points or less. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - inconsistent defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are  are 44-71 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

The Grizzlies calling card and success and or failures are centered around a 7th ranked ppg defense. With the offense ranked just 22nd in the NBA its obvious Memphis  will be out to center their attention on slowing this game down and Im betting that wont be a problem against a tired New Orleans side that played a hard fought game last night in a one point win. These projections on the style  play and energy flow have me taking an under stance. 

MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MEMPHIS) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 43-20 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 92-53 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Dallas lost to Golden State last time out by a 147-111 count. It was an embarrassing blowout loss, that will now have the Mavericks ready and motivated for  redemption . 

Carlisle is 47-22 ATS  after a blowout loss by 20 points or more as the coach of DALLAS.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an embarrassing upset loss by 20 points or more as a favorite are 25-4 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 9.5. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 31-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

The Nets are off a loss last night against the Raptors and on tired legs, as they play a Philadelphia side off a an embarrassing loss to the depleted Portland squad this past Thursday. The 76ers also have revenge on board for a loss to the Nets the last time they played and will now be very motivated to get a win here today.PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. 

Philadelphia head coach Doc Rivers is 14-3 ATS with same-season loss revenge of 10 or more points since 2007.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 season.

BROOKLYN is 8-20 ATS  when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams (BROOKLYN) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), hot shooting team - 5 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 23-53 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Im betting these two top tier teams take part in a post season style game that focuses on defence with special attention paid to the transition game. Boston ranks 9th in ppg allowed in the league and the Clippers ranks 4th.Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play UNDER 

The Pistons franchise has had a great deal of success vs the Suns going 16-1 L17  in this series and have the edge as underdogs vs a Suns side that is  0-5  L/5 at home in 1/2 rest situation.  PHOENIX is 1-13 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  over the last 2 seasons.  DETROIT is 10-1 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 19-45 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71%. 

Play on Detroit to cover 

Washingtons offense despite of their run and gun reputation have been quite inconsistent lately with their output numbers. In 5 of their L/7 games, they have scored 101,88, 106, 100, and 103 points. There were two offensive explosions, but those were against Brooklyn and Atlanta two teams that like to run and gun like them.  Tonight Im betting their offensive output will once again be curtailed by a Heat side that ranks 23rd in pace and 26th in offensive production. This will contribute to this tilt staying on the low side of the number. Note. These teams played on Wednesday night with a 103-100 final score. Rinse and repeat scenario now on board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MIAMI) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 23-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 45-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Since the Harden trade and his subsequent  debut, the Nets are averaging 127 points on 51.8 percent shooting. They shot 57 percent Tuesday. However, as we all know those numbers are not sustainable, especially against a veteran team like Toronto that knows how to slow games down and turning them into grinding affairs. Thus Im betting that this combined score will remain on the low side of the total. TORONTO is 22-8 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Nurse  in all 8 of his road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots as the coach of TORONTO has seen a combined score of 215.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more are 30-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 71-28 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 32-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projections estimate that Cleveland will not score more than 105 points here tonight while the Bucks should score in the 116 range. Note:MILWAUKEE is 18-2 UNDER  when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 215.4 ppg going on the board. The L/3 games in this series in Cleveland have gone under the set total and a rinse and repeat situation once again looks like a viable betting opportunity here based on my estimates and the fact that the Cavs own the 6th best ppg defense in the NBA and the 29th ranked pace. 

Play UNDER 

The Pelicans  are off a strong effort last time out beating up on the Suns by a 123-101 count and now are getting some decent respect on a line that Im not sure is deserved. After all this Pelicans side has shown themselves to be very inconsistent this season. I know the Pacers are off a DD loss, but that was to the Milwaukee Bucks who must be considered championship contenders.

NEW ORLEANS is 0-9 ATS off a huge upset win by 20 points or more as a home underdog . The Pelicans are 0-16 ATS /SU L/16 as a road dog with rest off a 10+ point win as a dog

Note: The Pacers beat the Pelicans 118-116 in overtime at New Orleans on Jan. 4  and here at home a reg time win is my projected outcome. 

Play on Indiana to cover

Denver offence is clicking and Im betting they push the Lakers into a uptempo game here and make the champs work extra hard in this tilt. DENVER is 20-6 OVER  after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is  is 12-3 OVER  in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, playing with 3 or more days rest are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 224.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

Memphis had their 7 game win steak snapped last time out by Indiana in a high scoring 134-116 event . I blame that down effort by the Grizzlies on their defence, which might of suffered because of tired legs on a rigorous schedule. The win streak was complimented by top tier defence, and now Im betting the Grizzlies returning to what made them successful here and that Im also betting contributes to this tilt staying on the low side of the total.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 25-14 UNDER  in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 20-8 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 22-6 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Sacramento has played well lately winning 3 of their L/5 with one loss by 1 point 96-95 , and Im attributing their recent success to playing good defense. Meanwhile, Boston is also playing top tier defensive hoops and ranking 8th in ppg defense. More of the same from both tonight. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5 or less TO's) are 26-7 UNDER L/ 24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Phoenix ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and are good at cutting down on opponents downtown shooting, thus making them play inside the arc in the paint. Meanwhile, the Pelicans play a similar style of  D, but are horrendous on offence and could easily be suffocated by a Suns side that is starting to get healthy. On the flip-side the Suns are inconsistent offensively, and dont get to the charity stripe often, ranking 2nd in FT attempts. These kinds of systems when I make a total projection shows value to the under. 

PHOENIX is 17-7 UNDER in road games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 15-4 UNDER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 20-9 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. 

Play UNDER

Spurs have struggled recently and have lost two straight, and are desperate to get back on track vs a Minnesota side that upset them 96-88 a few weeks ago. So revenge, redemption, give credence to me suggesting we lay the lumber here with the Spurs on home court. Note: 

San Antonio is 12-3 ATS with same-season loss revenge in this series, including 8-0 ATS from a defeat did not  come by DDs.. 

SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

NBA home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an embarrassing upset loss by 20 points or more as a favorite are 23-4 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +9.5 . 

NBA Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 44-18 ATS L/22 seasons L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

San Antonio to cover 

Indiana has been struggling to score and than suddenly last time out, they popped  134 points on 59.7% shooting against the Grizzlies, and now I expect a regression to the norm on tired legs in back to back games. This Im betting directly alters projections and gives us value on the under.

INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER  after a combined score of 245 points or more and s14-3 UNDER  after scoring 130 points or more.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 29-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Boston ranks 8th in defense ppg against and is the cornerstone of their successes and failures and nothing with change tonight vs the explosive Curry and the Warriors. The Celtics defensive posture and ability to control flow will lead to this being a lower scoring game than the linesmakers estimates. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good shooting team - shooting 46% or more  on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 28-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Washington Wizards are fresh off their best performance of the season out scoring the Nets by a 149-146 count  and now riding that momentum look very much like good bets vs a Portland side that continues to play without key cog CJ McCollum.  WASHINGTON is 25-9 ATS L/34 in home games after a combined score of 245 points or more . Wizards are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

The Trailblazers are 0-13-1 ATS /0-14 SU as a road dog off a loss as a road dog in which Damian Lillard was not their high scorer.

Trail Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Play on Washington to cover

The Los Angeles Clippers and Brooklyn Nets possess a great deal of  offensive explosiveness . But one team the Clippers owns the better defence (4th in NBA ppg allowed), and has the abilities to slow down the other side behind the 27th ranked pace  , and limit their potent attack. The Nets will want to run and gun, but Im betting the Clippers will not be dragged into that type of game and instead play stoppers here tonight against a undisciplined side, which according to my projections sets up for a combined score that does not eclipse this total. LA CLIPPERS are 22-9 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 60-25 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Memphis thanks to some very strong defensive play have won 7 games in a row and now on tired legs as they play their 2nd game in 2 nights, Im betting them and their opponents the Spurs will take part in a more subdued less aggressive offensive affair.

 MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER   off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.5 ppg.

SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 UNDER  in home games off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-39 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 30-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on the under 

The Memphis Grizzlies look for their seventh straight win Monday night when they face the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back set in San Antonio. However, Im betting their winning streak will come to an abrupt end here. MEMPHIS is 9-24 ATS after 6 or more consecutive wins since 1996.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 73-122 ATS L/24 seasons for a 63%  go against conversion rate for bettors.

San Antonio Spurs to cover 

We have revenge on board here tonight by the home team, as they look to get some redemption for their NBA 7 game series loss to the Rockets in last seasons play offs.Note:The Thunder are 7-1 ATS with revenge in this series which includes going  7-1 ATS as a dog with revenge. The Thunder are also 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

Rockets are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Rockets are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games as a road favorite.Rockets are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Rockets are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

NYK in their 20 games this season have seen a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored behind a 30th ranked last place pace and the worst ppg offense in the NBA also ranked 30th. To me this tells me they have had more control of the speed of the game than their opponents, and Im betting despite of the Bulls wanting to run they wont have their way and we see a lower scoring tilt then the lines-makers might expect. 

NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 201.1 ppg scored. 

 CHICAGO is 18-6 UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 34-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 Based on my projections this game has value on a under wager. (Late Steam)

NBA. Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, vs. division opponents are 56-28 under L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team aren30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Magic have lost two in a row and 10 of their past 12 games, while the Raptors have lost three straight and four of their past six. Both sides are struggling and desperate for a win, which suggests a dog fight here, which makes taking points a viable option. ORLANDO is 20-8 ATS in road games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.Clifford is 24-10 ATS when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) as the coach of ORLANDO.

NBA Road teams (ORLANDO) - pathetic team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or more  on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 32-8 ATS L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

Both these sides style of play obviously leans towards a high scoring affair, but the number according to my projections is just to high, and should be closer to 239 which gives us some obvious value to the under with an almost 2 possession divergence. 

The Nets have not gone over the total in 12 straight games  with rest coming off a road win where they had 30+ assists.Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or kore  of their shots are 30-6 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

According to my power rankings the Indiana Pacers matchup well vs the Sixers.I know the Sixers have looked like real contenders , but from a trends perspective they have proven to be an inconsistent side based on recency bias  as their  4-17 ATS record  in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons:  PHILADELPHIA is 6-20 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making  46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 8-21 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-21 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. 

The Pacers are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 15 fouls.

Play on Indiana  Pacers to cover 

Utah has reeled off 11 straight wins SU/ATS, and at 15-4 own the best record in the NBA. The Jazz will put that streak on the line when they visit the Nuggets for an early afternoon matchup on Sunday and Im betting they cover and will not be easily defeated. In other words lets ride the momentum of a streaking  hot side. 

NBA team vs the money line (UTAH) - after successfully covering the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, a top-level team ( 75% or more ) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 28-4 L/24 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

 The Warriors riding 31 points from Stephen Curry and 27 from Andrew Wiggins rolled to a 116-106 victory over Detroit when they met earlier this season, and now Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation. 

DETROIT is 5-15 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more are 1-24 SU L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 8.4 ppg. 

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

The Houston Rockets look stable after a rocky start to the season and deserve respect vs a uneven inconsistent New Orleans Pelicans . Houston has now won 4 straight and their 5th in a row Im betting comes tonight. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

My projections give us value with an under wager here in this matchup which says this Total should be closer to 219 which makes this a full ;possession divergence. 

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  after playing a home game this season.

HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER  versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 216.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW ORLEANS) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 38-14 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Denver Nuggets look to complete a perfect road trip as they take a five-game winning streak into San Antonio on Friday for their first matchup of the season with the surging Spurs. Im recommending we back the momentum of the Nuggets vs a San Antonio side my power ranking suggest they matchup well against. Note: San antonio is off a hard fought win last time out and have covered  Note: SAN ANTONIO is 1-13 ATS  in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. 

SAN ANTONIO is 0-11 ATS    in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

The Spurs are 0-14-1 ATS /0 -15 SU as a dog after their turnovers increased by at least 10 last game from the game before with every defeat  in this subset comeing by more than 4 points. 

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 47-19 ATS L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

 There is now way Oklahoma City can compete in a run and gun affair and that is why Im betting they do everything with their power to slow this game down, which Im betting results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 UNDER  when the total is 220 to 232.5  over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. 

The Thunder are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a dog after they had 5 or fewer offensive boards last game , with non of the tilts going over this offered number. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

The Kings have covered in three straight games versus the Eastern Conference and according to my projections matchup well here and have are an advantage play. 

Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.

SACRAMENTO is 13-4 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
Walton is 18-6 ATS  in road games after a game where they covered the spread as the coach of SACRAMENTO. SACRAMENTO is 22-9 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 season


SACRAMENTO is 22-11 ATS   in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

No rest for either team as Warriors visit Suns but Im betting the home side getting home cooking will be better prepared and ready to run just a little bit harder. 

Both sides are unrested and Im expecting a slower more deliberate game than many might expect. 

The Warriors have seen the L/6 meetings vs the Suns stay under the set total and have gone under in 8 of their L/9 as  division  road dogs  and have also seen  6 of their L/7 away games  stay under vs unrested foes . Mean while, the Suns have gone under 9 straight times as division  chalk including   5 straight vs  unrested division  opposition. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 220.5 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 90-51 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Detroit is coming off a 122-107 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. Turnovers led to the Pistons' demise, as they committed 22 that the Cavaliers converted into 30 points and they are in trouble again tonight vs a Lakers side ready to rebound off a loss.

 DETROIT is 12-27 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.  Casey is 8-19 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of DETROIT.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DETROIT) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days are 29-71 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover

The Blazers are expected to be  without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic and this situation is not a good one for a side that was already playing crap D before these key injuries.


Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

 NBA Underdogs vs the money line (PORTLAND) - after playing 4 consecutive home games, playing with 2 days rest are 5-35 SU L/5 seasons for a go against  87% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at 7.8 ppg. 

Play on Houston to cover

Mavericks enter this game having gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and  are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Tonight against a Utah side that played last night and now tired legs the Mavs have an edge on this line. Note: The Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and  are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.

DALLAS is 24-10 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 35-17 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 30-14 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Dallas Mavericks to cover

The Raptors are according to my projections actually getting to much respect here vs a Milwaukee team that matches up well against them. I know the Raptors have played well ;lately, but past results do not guarantee future performance, which Im betting is the case here vs the Bucks. 

TORONTO is 2-11 ATS  vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game over the last 3 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 30-16 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 45-15 ATS L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Kings enter this game well rested and showing a  7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Magic, are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and  are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Advantage Sacramento  based on overall stats. 

ORLANDO is 1-10 ATS  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 21-9 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 32-18 ATS  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 17-6 ATS  in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

When the Washington Wizards finally returned to action following a prolonged absence linked to league health and safety protocols, they looked disorganized and took it on the chin. However now with some practice and game time, this well rested side should be more than a handful for a Houston side that is currently being over rated after their big trade. 

Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 133-81 ATS L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Clippers will be without Leonard, George, and Beverley which gives the Hawks a big edge especially with Trae Young now expected to suit up. The Hawks are 10-0 ATS coming off a loss as a dog where they were outscored in the paint by double digits. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season, after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on Atlanta to cover

Portland has won six of its last eight games, while the Thunder are 0-3 on a five-game road trip that concludes Wednesday against the Phoenix Suns. Both teams look to performing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, but my power ratings suggest a closer game than the linemakers number indicates. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-11 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-7 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons

NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

 The Chicago Bulls are off a loss last time out vs the Lakers and are now ready for a bounce back performance vs the Celtics.
The Bulls previous to that defeat  averaged 121.7 points in winning three straight games and deserve respect as a up-trending side.

The Bulls are 11-2 ATS L/13 as a dog.

 NBA Road favorites (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 75-42 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago Bulls to cover

Boston really shot the lights out last time out in a 141-103 win vs the Cleveland Cavaliers and now a natural offensive regression is in the cards.  This in itself will help contribute to this tilts combined score staying on the low side of the total. Note:  BOSTON is 29-11 UNDER after a huge blowout win by 30 or more since 1996 with a combined 191.3 ppg scored. 

HC Donovan of the Bulls is 95-55 UNDER  as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average lof 215.7 ppg scored. 


NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 29-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER