Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-19-21 | Bengals +2.5 v. Bears | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 1 m | Show | |
Cincinnati has a deep scouting report on Dalton the ex Bengals and current Bears QB starter, and will be well prepared to slow his production options. Plus Chicagos offensive line looks wobbly at best. I also suggest that the Bengals D, is very under rated , and that QB Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase could easily be big stories in the NFL this season. With that said, Im betting on Burrows to take advantage of the Bears weak secondary, for big gains, and for the Bengal D to stand tall against a QB thats seen his best days pass him by. CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS L/20 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game . NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992 at Chicago. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-18-21 | Fresno State +11.5 v. UCLA | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 56 h 59 m | Show | |
My projections and power rankings suggest this line should be no higher than 10 points and thus according to my estimates we have value attached to under rated Fresno State. It must be noted UCLA is getting way to much respect for their win vs LSU. Note: The Bruins have failed to cover 6 of the L/8 games vs non conference opposition as a home favorite. Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS L/5 vs Pac 12. Fresno State is also 8-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 10 or more points. CFB home team (UCLA) - excellent rushing team ( 4.8 or more YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 33-70 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 90-46 L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Fresno State to cover |
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09-18-21 | Oklahoma State +4 v. Boise State | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 62 h 2 m | Show | |
The Boise State Broncos are still looking for steady direction under new head coach Andy Avalos and inconsistencies have looked common here early this season. The one consistency I do see, is that the defense has some work to do, and here against an explosive Oklahoma State squad difficulties will definitely arise here against Cowboys star QB Spencer Sanders and company. Note: The Cowboys beat BSU, 44-18, the last time these teams met back in 2018. Gundy is 38-24 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma State to cover |
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09-18-21 | Tulane +14.5 v. Ole Miss | 21-61 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 39 m | Show | |
Both these teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry and the lines-makers are well aware of this as they have set a high totals count on this tilt. When projecting scoreboard tallys is become obvious to me that getting points here is a value play.Fritz is 13-4 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached since 1992. Note: Rebels 1-9 ATS as a favorite when coming off consecutive victories . Ole Miss HC Kiffin has failed to cover 13 of the L/20 vs a non conference opponent. Play on Tulane to cover |
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09-18-21 | Stanford v. Vanderbilt +12 | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 37 m | Show | |
The Stanford Cardinal are off a huge win last week against USC, and will now be in a letdown situation this week here on the road in a SEC venue at Vanderbilt. The Cardinal are 10-23 ats L/33 times off a underdog win. Vanderbilt is also off a \upset win, and Shaw and company are just 0-8-1 ATS L/9 vs these types of sides. CFB Home underdogs (VANDERBILT) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS L/29 seasons for 84% conversion rate. Play on Vandy to cover |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State -4.5 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 13 m | Show | |
I have some futures tickets on Penn State and feel they are the most under rated team in the nation. While my assumptions may prove incorrect at some point , - for now I feel strongly about their talent levels, and believe they can beat any team in the nation if healthy including their SEC opponent today Auburn who return just 9 starters from last years squad. Auburn has blown away some sub par competition in their first two games, but here today their are in deep and that will show in the final score. Penn State currently 2-0 SU/ATS this season is 6-0 ATS/SU L/6 dating back to last season. Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is 12-0 ATS over the last twelve games when coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories. |
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09-18-21 | Utah State +8.5 v. Air Force | 49-45 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
. The Falcons are coming off a 23-3 win over Navy and Im betting they will be a in a letdown situation this week vs a under rated Utah State side.Utah State has averaged 311 passing yards per game through its first two tilts and the defense has only surrendered a total of 214 rushing yards and must be respected here as underdogs. Troy Calhoun is 19- 33 ATS ras conference chalk, and has failed to cover 16 of their L/24 after playing Navy, including 3-9 ATS as favs. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 31-9 ATS L/29 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on Utah state to cover |
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09-18-21 | UAB v. North Texas +13 | 40-6 | Loss | -106 | 57 h 40 m | Show | |
This tilt is based on power ranking and projection output that favor the underdog covering this number. Each of the last 3 meetings between these CUSA rivals have been decided by 8 points or less. Im betting on similar results here thus giving us value with the home underdog. Last time out UAB was eaten alive by Georgia and that can be humiliating. College kids dont deal with defeat as well as pros do and despite of wanting to come back out here and get redemption, Im betting they wont be as able as many might think. Note:Clark is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of UAB. Play on North Texas to cover |
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09-18-21 | South Carolina +32 v. Georgia | 13-40 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show | |
Thanks to Georgias thunderous start to this campaign, Im betting that the lines-makers and public have got ahead of themselves and that we have value here with the underdog. Note: Georgia has failed to cover 8 of their L/11 as conference home favorite of 17 or more points,. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 15 points. Also from a personal perspective Im a big fan of HC Shane Beamer, and what he brings to this Gamecocks football program. Pride and grit Im betting gets us a slice of Georgia pie here this Saturday. Smart is 0-6 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of GEORGIA. GEORGIA is 7-21 ATS in home games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game ( that happened vs UAB last week). Play on South Carolina to cover |
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09-18-21 | Ball State +7 v. Wyoming | 12-45 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
The defending MAC champs Ball State had a game 8-game winning streak. come to end at Penn State. Despite of losing to a top tier Big 10 team they did not look out of place and deserve respect here in Laramie this week. Meanwhile, Wyoming, beat Northern Illinois 50-43 last week, and Im having doubts about their overall ability to be a Mountain West contender. BALL ST is 22-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALL ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on Ball State to cover |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 12 m | Show | |
Both these teams worked hard for wins last week, and now with both in an emotional letdown situation, the offensive fireworks may start slowly, with home field advantage taking precedent for me with Memphis. note: Memphis is 9-3 ATS against SEC opposition with an above .500 record including 6-1 ATS at the Liberty Bowl. CFB home team (MEMPHIS) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 28-6 ATS L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on Memphis to cover |
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09-18-21 | Northwestern v. Duke +3 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 55 h 36 m | Show | |
Northwestern is just 3-7 in its last 10 road games and do not instill confidence in being road favorites at an SEC venue , even though its at Duke. The Wildcats lost more returning production from last year than any other FBS side, and cohesion going forward especially on the road will be an issue, especially with top tier defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz. NORTHWESTERN is 9-21 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992. Fitzgerald is 17-32 ATS in the first month of the season as the coach of NORTHWESTERN. Cutcliffe is 24-9 ATS after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of DUKE. Cutcliffe is 20-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DUKE.Cutcliffe is 33-16 ATS after playing a non-conference game as the coach of DUKE. Play on Duke to cover |
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09-18-21 | Purdue +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 55 m | Show | |
Purdue is 8-1 ATS L/9 as 7 or more point underdogs , and the Boilermakers have cashed in the last three series meetings. Head coach Jeff Brohm has 18 starters back from last season, and deserve respect here as a pup vs a retooling Notre Dame program.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Purdue to cover |
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09-18-21 | Nevada v. Kansas State +2 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 57 m | Show | |
Kansas State has lost QB, Skylar Thompson, to a knee injury , and there is no news on when he will return. So now we get to bet into a underdog line, on a home side, with a strong D, and viable enough attack to make life difficult for their Mountain West opponents Nevada. I know Nevada beat Cal, but their ground game only produced 61 yards in that game and Im betting they have problems moving the chains again, via their ground game, and will bump into problems through the air vs the a under rated Kansas State secondary. The Wolfpack are 0-5 SU vs Big 12 . Kansas State to cover |
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09-18-21 | Minnesota +3 v. Colorado | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 51 h 24 m | Show | |
Gophers lost top tier RB Mohamed Ibrahim for the season but still have enough backup talent to be able to cope with that loss behind RB Treyson Pott who rushed for a 178 yards and 2 TDS last time out. After watching the Gophers play Ohio State tough in their opener Im betting Fleck and company are under rated and deserve respect getting points even on the road. MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 36-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Minnesota to cover |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana +4 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 27 m | Show | |
Indiana was humiliated by Iowa in a ugly 34-6 beatdown in their opener, and now need swift redemption against a top tier unit in what Im betting is a must win situation for the Hoosiers here against a tough Cincinnati football program on a 11 game reg season win streak. Im bolstered and confident in backing Indiana after watching them smash Idaho last week, and feel strongly they dont go down without an all out fight here at home. INDIANA is 7-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. Fickell is 1-5 SU on the road in Big Ten play , including 0-5 SU when his team is above .500. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 79-34 ATS L/29 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana to cover |
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09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6.5 | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Miami Fl QB D'Eriq King, leads this experienced Canes team . King Im betting will use veterans to punch through a over hyped Michigan State squad. Look for running back Cam'Ron Harris, tight end Will Mallory and receivers Mike Harley and Charleston Rambo to unload with big numbers today. Just a quick note: Losing to Alabama is not something that should impact a negative connotation towards Miami, and their close win vs a under rated and always tough App State side, the Canes should be looked upon more favorably. On the flip side Michigan State beating a depleted and rebuilding Northwestern team and than an a FCS side should also not suddenly catapult the Spartans to football god status. With that said, Im betting the right side is favored and there is value laying points at 7 points or less. Play on Miami fl to cover |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, is out with an injury and now Taylor Heinicke will be under center for the Washington Football team . He’s made two NFL starts , both at home that ended in losses and he could easily end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard again. Judge is 6-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS. NY GIANTS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons and Giants starting QB was the starter in all those tilts and will be again tonight. NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 94-160 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. |
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09-16-21 | Ohio +21 v. UL-Lafayette | 14-49 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
This is just to many points to pass up on according to my projections and power rankings. Because of Ohios loss to FCS school last week Duquesne we have a tainted line to bet into here with the underdog . Im betting on Ohio doing what they do best and pounding the ball on the ground here which will eat up clock and help keep UL Lafayette off the field. The Bobcats are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight Thursday games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are just 2-8 ATS L/10 as a 14-point or more favorite. CFB Road underdogs (OHIO U) - team from a second tier division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference are 23-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Ohio. to cover |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
Black- and-Silver bring a 5-1 ATS record on Monday night games into this tilts including 3-0 SUATS the last three at home . Im looking for these positive numbers to continue here at Allegiant Stadium vs a banged up Baltimore side missing some key offensive cogs and that was not as potent last season on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are 5-10 SUATS L/8 seasons vs the AFC West, including 0-4 ATS when favored by 5 or less points. Raiders QB Carr is 4-2 as a starter on Monday nights, including wins in his past three Monday starts and takes my money here tonight. Home team is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings in this series. Play on the Vegas Raiders to cover |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans -3 | 38-13 | Loss | -108 | 843 h 2 m | Show | |
Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 28-1 L/28 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.9 ppg which qualifies on this spread line. |
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09-12-21 | Jets +4 v. Panthers | 14-19 | Loss | -104 | 69 h 32 m | Show | |
The new quarterback for the Carolina Panthers Darnold has proven inconsistent during his career. Im betting his inability for stability to continue vs his former team. Considering how well the Jets internal scouting report is on him , this should be a bad bounce back start for the play caller.Matt Rhule is in his second season with Carolina after a 5-11 record in 2020 and I just don't like what they offer overall, even against a revamped Jets side.Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Take the points with the NYJ to cover |
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09-12-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Falcons | 32-6 | Win | 100 | 68 h 27 m | Show | |
Philadelphias Jalen Hurts is better than he was at Alabama. Yes I believe he has matured and Im betting after showing signs of brilliance , we will see him shine today behind an under rated group of WRs and backs. Meanwhile, Atlanta despite of having a veteran at Atlanta is 1-10 ATS L/11 as non division fav of 5 points or less. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games. are 94-158 ATS L/38 seasons for a 62% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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09-12-21 | Vikings v. Bengals +3 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 13 m | Show | |
The QB savior of the Bengals Joe Burrows will be Im betting be the difference maker here today. Dating back to last season, Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf. Host 6-0 L/6 in this series and the Bengals are 8-2 ATS L/10 as non-conference Home dogs of 3 points or more. Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf and are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1 as well as 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home gams and from a long term perspective are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games in September. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars v. Texans +3 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence in my humble betting opinion is being over hyped here. The kid was great at Clemson, but Im not sure he is ready to starter in this league just yet. I know QB Dshaun Watson wont be under center for the Texans, but the Texans: 6-0 SU last six games in this series while the Jaguars have lost 7 straight road games and have been a chalk in only two of its last 24 overall trips to the grid-ion , with both of those tilts ending a loss for the Jags. with that said, Ill take the points with the completely disrespected home dog. NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 360 or more total yards/game, versus division opponents are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 130-204 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against long term 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Texans to cover |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
David Shaw is sometimes a hard HC to read. His team behind two QBs looked lost offensively, despite of the D, showing some strong potential this season, losing by a 24-7 final score to Kansas State last week. In this conference opener I do expect ,Shaw to stick with one QB, and for the defence to pressure a vulnerable looking USC offensive line giving Kedon Slovis some issues with distribution. Cardinal is 11-3 ATS L/14 as underdogs of more than a Touch Down. Shaw is 30-19 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of STANFORD. CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Stanford to cover |
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09-11-21 | Vanderbilt +7 v. Colorado State | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 1 m | Show | |
Embarrassing is what must describe Vanderbilts opener vs a FCS school E.Tennessee State as they lost 22-3 . Wow. A new SEC low. However, now thanks to that ugly effort Im expecting a more wide awake Vandy crew here in game 2 vs Mountain West opponent Colorado State. Note and Key trend: 17 returning-starter underdogs like the Commodores in Game Two of the season are 18-2 ATS when coming off a loss of 15 or more points, and facing an opponent coming off a defeat l as Colorado State is. CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) - after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. Play on Vanderbilt to cover |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 9 m | Show | |
Michigan is off a big 47-14 win vs MAC opponent Western Michigan in their first game out , but it must be noted Michigan is 1-11 ATS L/12 facing Pac-12 opponents like Washington, including 0-7 ATS when the Wolverines are coming off a victory. MICHIGAN is 10-23 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. I know Washington lost in an upset to the Montana , but in the past the Huskies have proved resilient- as the program has gone 8-0 SU in its last eight games after losing as a favorite, and 22-11 SU against the Big Ten L/33 meetings. WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse since 1992. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 37-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play on Washington to cover |
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09-11-21 | Missouri +5.5 v. Kentucky | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 58 m | Show | |
Missouri won and covered the last time these teams met and now Im betting they will make a game of this tilt vs Kentucky as the dog covers for the 6th straight time in this series. Mark Stoops, is a bankroll depleting 3-10 SU in SEC openers for his backers , including 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. Stoops is 0-9 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of KENTUCKY. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. Play on Missouri to cover |
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09-11-21 | Memphis v. Arkansas State +6 | 55-50 | Win | 100 | 58 h 38 m | Show | |
Memphis true freshman QB Seth Henigan looked good in a 42-17 victory vs FCS opponent Nicholls in their first game , as he recorded a 19-of-32 mark for 265 yards and a touchdown in his first career start. However, Ive rolled over some of the tape and just does not look polished enough to handle a steady Arkansas state defense and Im fading the Tigers vs a team that has revenge on board 37-24 loss at Memphis las season. Note:Tigers are 2-13 SU in road openers and 0-4 ATS on the road under Silverfield, including 1-5 ATS when coming off a victory. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. Play on Arkansas State to cover |
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09-11-21 | Texas State +2 v. Florida International | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 41 m | Show | |
Florida International has lost 7 straight games to FBS schools and despite of a win vs FCS school just dont look like they have it in them to defeat a up-trending program like Texas State who despite of losing 29-20 looked pretty good vs Big 12 opponent Baylor last time out bringing home the cash as 14 point dogs. With a 17 players returning roster and a top tier QB in Bradie MacBride Texas State is a viable bet to win this game outright. Note: Texas State vs CUSA are 6-1 ATS and get the nod here. Play on Texas State to cover |
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09-11-21 | UAB +24.5 v. Georgia | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 30 m | Show | |
. Georgia opened with a 10-3 win over Clemson in Charlotte on Saturday and now Im betting their in a letdown situation vs a staunch Sun Belt defense that is off a shut out and must be respected. Getting pumped up again vs UAB will be a difficult task for a Georgia club in a look ahead to South Carolina in their SEC opener. GEORGIA is 29-53 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (GEORGIA) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are just 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UAB to cover |
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09-11-21 | Air Force v. Navy UNDER 41 | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 54 h 11 m | Show | |
Military Academies are on a 39-8-1 UNDER run! Play UNDER |
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09-11-21 | Temple v. Akron +7 | 45-24 | Loss | -103 | 52 h 24 m | Show | |
I don't like the way Temple is declining. They had a horrendous season last year, and now they started 0-1 after a 61-14 drubbing vs Rutgers and have lost 5 of their L/6 road games SU and are fade material as this big a favorite, yes even against Akron. TEMPLE is 6-17 ATS against MAC opponents since 1992. Note: starting QB D'Wan Mathis is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs Akron ( Foot ). CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 23-4 ATS L/29 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Akron to cover |
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09-11-21 | Toledo +17 v. Notre Dame | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 50 h 15 m | Show | |
There is alot of returning production back from last season, and they must be respected as DD underdogs vs a Notre Dame program that is retooling. Looking ahead to Big 10 competition next week, and in an emotional letdown state after a hard fought OT win vs Florida State last time out, Im betting we have an edge taking an explosive Toledo side getting points . The Rockets 11-4 ATS with a perfect record and are coming off a win of 28+ points, including 6-0 ATS L/6 in road tilts. (Toledo won last week( 49-10). Fighting Irish are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Play on Toledo to cover |
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09-11-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Virginia Tech OVER 54 | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State cranked it up offensively FCS opponent Monmouth, 50-15 and will come in there ready to keep an aggressive offensive mind set alive. Virginia Tech Im betting will also take advantage of Middle Tennessee State team that allowed 35.4 points and 446 yards per game last season. Last year, Virginia Tech averaged 31.1 points per game. Play OVER |
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09-11-21 | Illinois +10 v. Virginia | 14-42 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 14 m | Show | |
Illinois stepped up by taking down Nebraska in week one of the season , but were in a massive letdown spot the following week vs a under rated Texas State side and were upset . The up and down Illinois football side has proven fairly resilient in the past in this spot as they are 7-3 ATS away when coming off a SU favorite defeat. It must also be noted that Illini HC Bielema is 6-0 ATS in his last six bounce back situations as a underdog when coming off a SU loss. The only meetings in this series vs Virginia were won by Illinois. Both were bowl games. I am not a big fan of what the situation is in Virginia or the type of recruiting that they have done, and last years 5-5 mark is a statement to that mediocrity. With that saidm I'll recommend we take the point here. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Illinois to cover |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show | |
I know the Dallas Cowboys are off a down season, but with a healthy Dak Prescott back behind center Im betting the Cowboys will have a bounce back season, as long as health issues don't rear their ugly head again. I know Mike McCarthy the Cowboys coach did not have a very efficient first season at the helm of Americas team, but the last time one his teams had a sub .500 campaign he bounced back with a 11 win season. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the defending Super Bowl Champs will be Im betting in an emotional hang over mode. Note: Super Bowl champs are 12-24-1 ATS L/ in their first two games of the new season, as 6 or more point favs. Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS L/5 Thursday night home games. Bucs are 0-5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC East competition. Buccaneers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Buccaneers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1. Boyz are 9-3 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point underdogs. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. McCarthy is 95-66 ATS in games played on a grass field in all games he has coached in his career. Play on Dallas Cowboys to cover |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
Mike Norvell in his 2nd year in Tallahassee Im betting is ready to shine. Yes, I know Florida state has not played great ball the last few seasons, but they are a talented bunch that is uptrending in my futures power rankings.With that said they deserve respect here vs a Notre Dame side returning only 9 starters and 3 on offense with two key contributors from last season gone ie (QB Ian Book /WR Javon McKinley). CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 57-24 ATS L/29 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Florida State to cover |
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09-04-21 | Syracuse v. Ohio +2 | 29-9 | Loss | -113 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
Dino Babers is way down on my list for coaches. Talent meets preparation, and Babers fails on that examination front, as is evident by his teams inconsistencies during his tenor at Syracuse which includes a 1-10 record last season. Meanwhile, Ohio despite of being without retired HC Solich , still has he assistant and now head guy Tim Albin at the helm and will keep the system his predecessor honed the intact. Last year ,Ohio averaged 216.7 yards rushing per game behind RB De'Montre Tuggle l who averaged 7.6 yards per carry, 134.3 per game, including 7 TDs. Stopping the run was an issue for the Orange last season allowing an average of 32.7 points per game and a whopping 209.2 rushing yards per game last season. Ohio is 46-34 ATS L/80 as an underdog. Play on Ohio. to cover |
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09-04-21 | Indiana +4 v. Iowa | 6-34 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
In a game I have pegged as. a single score game taking points with what my projections estimate is the better side is deemed a viable wager .Indiana is off a strong season under fifth-year coach Tom Allen, finishing with a 6-2 SU record The Hoosiers are ranked in the preseason Top 25 for the first time since 1969 and must be respected. Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Ferentz is 22-33 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of IOWA. Play on Indiana to cover |
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09-04-21 | Marshall -150 v. Navy | 49-7 | Win | 100 | 164 h 51 m | Show | |
New era begins with new HC Charles Huff, Jr. of Marshall and Im betting it will be a successful venture behind an extremely talented Navy is off a down campaign finishing 3-7 and Im not sure they have upgraded enough to get back to their glory form of recent past seasons. CFB Home underdogs vs. the money line (NAVY) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 29-1 L/29 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team (NAVY) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 6-36 L/29 seasons for a 86% go against conversion rate. Play on Marshall to win |
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09-04-21 | Alabama v. Miami-FL +19.5 | 44-13 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 23 m | Show | |
The'Canes Im betting will continue to uptrend that they bring. back 19 starters. Meanwhile, Alabama is down 3 key players who finished in the top 5 of the Heisman vote, and return just 3 offensive starters . Hey I know what recruiting is like at Alabama and a few 4 and 5 star studs should make them a national championship contender squad this season, but here today against a under rated side with plenty of experience and talent Im betting on the underdog covering. Play on Miami Fl to cover |
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09-04-21 | Penn State +4.5 v. Wisconsin | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 160 h 22 m | Show | |
The Badgers are banged up on the offensive line and Im betting they have problems today moving the ball vs a under rated Litanny Lions D, that despite of giving up 27 ppg on average last season, allowed an average of just 329 ypg (the Lions numbers were skewed by alot of offensive turnovers) . Note: The previous 3 seasons the Lion defense allowed an average of just 17 PPG and this season and more importantly here today their D Im betting stands tall. Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.Nittany Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 24-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87"% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Penn State Nitanny Lions to cover |
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09-04-21 | Stanford +3.5 v. Kansas State | 7-24 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX My projections suggest we have value with Stanford in this non conference spot play. The Cardinal have plenty if experience on offense especially the offensive line where Im betting they can dominate vs a KState side that looked flustered at times on defense last season. . The Cardinal are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and have covered 5 straight times vs BIG12 opponents .Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12. Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
, Northwestern Wildcats only return 8 starters and Im betting they down trend this season in Big 10 action. Meanwhile, Michigan state returns 16 starters, and have beaten the Wildcats in their last 2 meetings. I wont be surprised if the Magic of 3 rears its head here as my projections estimate an actual upset , thus getting points makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Fitzgerald is 17-30 ATS in the first month of the season as the coach of NORTHWESTERN. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - with 16 total starters returning are 67-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 54-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Michigan State to cover |
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09-03-21 | Northern Colorado v. Colorado OVER 56 | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
Im betting Colorado smashes Northern Colorado with offensive punch after offensive punch here tonight . The Buffs averaged 4.6 yards per attempt and ranked 22nd in the nation in rushing yards per game vs top tier College Football opposition and here versus a defense that gave up a whopping 5.8 yards per carry and nearly 250 rushing yards per game against FCS competition some big time output is my bet. Im also expecting Colorados incoming QB Lewis to highlight a strong arm and aerial phenomenons against a suspect Northern Colorado secondary. On the flip side Im also betting on Northern Colorados spread offense to do more damage than the lines-makers expect vs a Buffs pass D that can be extorted and a D that allowed more than 32 points four times last season, and run D that was ranked 114th in the nation last season. Over is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 games overall. Play OVER . |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +14 | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 37 h 4 m | Show | |
The Buckeyes look like an inexperienced bunch this season and return just 2 seniors from the 2-deep chart and rank last in Top tier conference of 130 teams in returning yards gained offensive production . Meanwhile, Minnesota bring back 20 starters, including 7 seniors and 12 athletes from the 2-deep chart. This is a tough conference, and their are some surprises coming this season, and the Buckeyes inexperience may end up being a glaring issue. Advantage on the line for the Gophers. MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992.Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Golden Gophers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-02-21 | East Carolina +10.5 v. Appalachian State | 19-33 | Loss | -112 | 36 h 52 m | Show | |
East Carolina is a program that may surprise some pundits this season and more importantly tonight against the Sun Belt perennials App State . Shawn Clark will have to deal with a inexperienced QB at the helm of the Mountaineers offense. Meanwhile the Pirates return the most production of all the football programs in the American conference . HC Mike Houston Im betting is ready to make big strides in his teams competitiveness this season in his 3rd year. Advantage on the line goes to East Carolina. Mountaineers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. Mountaineers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Play on East Carolina to cover |
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09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +17 | 31-0 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
The Jacksonville St defense allowed their opposition to an average just 17.6 points in offensive output , 92.3 rushing yards, and 2.3 ypc in a 13-game campaign last season. With key contributors back Im betting they remain staunch. Meanwhile, the offense is also dangerous behind top tier prospect QB Zerrick Cooper who was on the Heisman watch list after leaving Clemson. On the flip-side, UAB is also a strong team that could make a run for the CUSA championship. Their strength remains on their grinding run game on offense and a defense that returns 9 starters. With that said, Im betting on the Gamecocks strong run stopping abilities and their superior QB to help them stay within the number in this game and to get us the cover. Note: UAB went 1-3 ATS last season as a double-digit favorites. Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field-turf. JSU was 2-0 ATS last season against FBS opponents. Play on Jacksonville state to cover |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3 | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 59 h 43 m | Show | |
Overall Tampa Bay has had a better season than the KC Chiefs, and deserve respect here on a underdog line playing at home. In last seasons Super /bowl Kansas City had been out-gained the entire contest by the 49ers until a late game-winning 65-yard drive . In truth the wrong team won/ covered and ever since KC has been looked upon in some divine way by the betting public. Something they do not deserve in my humble betting opinion. Yes I know how great a QB Mahomes is, but Tom Brady has far superior experience and now going into this 10th Super Bowl must be considered a NFL prime time super star with god like abilities. Bottom line: Both these teams can score, and both have top teir QBs at the helm of their offense, but to me the difference maker comes on defense. Defense wins championships : Note: Tampa Bay brings the league’s seventh-ranked defense to this big game. With said, it must also be noted that the team with the better D, has won 44 of the L/53 Super Bowls. |
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01-24-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | 24-38 | Loss | -100 | 59 h 59 m | Show | |
Two strong teams with two top tier QBs Josh Allen (107.2 QB Rating) , and Patrick Mahomes (108.2 ) go head to head. The game is expected to be close, but I like the Bills here getting points vs a side that 0-8-1 ATS L/9. Buffalo is 11-5-1 ATS the past couple of seasons as a underdog of 6 or less points. Bills head coach Sean McDermott 8-1 ATS as a non-division dog vs an above .500 opponent. BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 3-20 L/37 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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01-24-21 | Bucs +3.5 v. Packers | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 49 h 29 m | Show | |
The Bucs blitzed Aaron Rodgers on 18-of-41 drop backs in the first game they played against each other, and Im betting that kind of pressure will be on todays agenda. Advantage Bucs as underdogs in a game that could easily be a pickem. TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play this season. TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season. NFL Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-14 ATS L/37 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to cover |
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01-17-21 | Bucs +3 v. Saints | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
The Saints beat Tom Brady and company have lost both meetings this season but it must be noted that Brady is 18-3 SU revenging a division loss and 13-1 SU/ATS vs sides wtih a .300 record or better with the only loss coming to the Saints this season. Brady has never lost 3 times in a row to any team,. Considering HC Arians has won 16 of 23 road games vs division opposition and Brady seething with retribution at hand Im betting on TB getting us the cover. |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 57.5 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
After watching Cleveland take part in a run and gun all out offensive affair last time out, in their win to advance to this game , vs Pittsburgh last week, the pundits and linesmakers have jumped the gun and exaggerated this totals line. However, Im betting on the Browns knowing what they are going up against this week, and stick to their very viable ground game in an attempt to keep explosive Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than expected. KANSAS CITY is 35-17 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-6 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-8 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 48 h 26 m | Show | |
The Raven enter this game peaking right at the fight time as is evident by having held their last three opponents to 228 YPG, including a season-low 209 to the Titans last week . Meanwhile, Buffalo has played lights out all season, and really have not paced themselves. Here against a very physical side, that according to my projections is superior to them , getting points makes for a solid wager. BALTIMORE is 9-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Harbaugh is 21-8 ATS against AFC East division opponents as the coach of BALTIMORE and 13-2 ATS against those sides with an above .500 record. Harbaugh is 15-4 ATS in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game as the coach of BALTIMORE. |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | 18-32 | Loss | -120 | 45 h 47 m | Show | |
The Rams are underdogs here vs a very public favorite the Green Bay Pacers but are under rated as Los Angles HC Sean McVay is strong bet as a visitor, going 23-11 SU L/34 opportunties , including 5-0 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. LA RAMS are 11-3 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons. LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS off a division game this season. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | 24-52 | Loss | -112 | 59 h 39 m | Show | |
The Buckeyes come in here as underdogs , but it must be noted that they are a bankroll expanding 14-0 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more points since 2009. Im not amored by Sabsans group this season, especially defensively as was the evident when they allowed the Gators to pop 48 pints on them , making them vulnerable against what I estimate is one of Ohio State strongest football programs in years.
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01-10-21 | Browns +6 v. Steelers | 48-37 | Win | 100 | 84 h 41 m | Show | |
01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 47.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 40 m | Show | |
01-10-21 | Bears +10.5 v. Saints | 9-21 | Loss | -117 | 118 h 55 m | Show | |
The number here on this tilt is bloated according to my projections giving us value with the underdog. Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff home games. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on Bears to cover |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 33 m | Show | |
NFC Playoffs - Wild Card Play on Washington to cover |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | 30-20 | Loss | -109 | 93 h 50 m | Show | |
Seattle beat the Rams 20-9 when they met in December and the L/3 most recent meetings in this series saw no more than 40 combined points go on the board . Rinse and repeat here on an under wager, especially considering Rams QB Jared Goff is out or less than 100%.
Seattle went under in 7 of their L/8 games overall, with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in 39.4 ppg.McVay is 8-1 UNDER revenging a road loss against opponent as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 41.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. SEATTLE is 6-0 UNDER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored. Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-4 under L/10 seasons . NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS/ SEATTLE) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 36-10 UNDER L/10 seasons.Play UNDER |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -118 | 56 h 5 m | Show | |
eattle took out the Rams 20-9 when they they last met and with Rams QB Jeff Goff out or less than 100% the Seahawks look like viable bets for a rinse and repeat sitiuation again. Carroll is 16-5 ATS ( as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of SEATTLE. |
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01-09-21 | Colts +6.5 v. Bills | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this total is closer to 41 points thus giving us value with a under wager. |
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01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles +7 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
01-03-21 | Titans -7 v. Texans | 41-38 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
Tennessee was absolutely obliterated last week vs Green Bay and will now be primed for redemption here this week vs a Houston side with a 4-11 record and feeling less than motivated with nothing to play for as this season winds down. |
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01-03-21 | Chargers v. Chiefs +4.5 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
It matters very little what the Chiefs do today. They have the No. 1 seed and get a bye week coming up, but that does not mean that they wont want to stay sharp. Take the points. |
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01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | 35-16 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
The Bears behind QB Mitchell Trubisky have scored 30-plus points in four straight games for the first time in team history and in their current form are more than capable of ending the Green Bay Packers 5 game win streak. I know the Packers really put the boots to the Bears when they faced them back in end of November by a 41-25 count but it must be noted that CHICAGO is 16-5 ATS L/21 in home games revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more and are desperate to get a win and here and garner a play off spot. CHICAGO is also 26-13 ATS L/39 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 5-28 L/10 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate. |
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01-03-21 | Raiders v. Broncos +3 | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
These two sides the Raiders and the Broncos are probably busy booking golf holidays instead of being fully focused on this tilt. But there is still some pride on the line here as the Broncos should be keyed up to reap some revenge on a Las Vegas side that smashed then 37-12 as home chalk back in mid-November . The Raiders are off three straight home losses and look lifeless setting up what Im betting is down performance here. Note: NFL visiting sides like the Raiders coming off three consecutive home losses are 1-8 SU in division games since 1980. LAS VEGAS is 0-6 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse this season. NFL Home teams (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on the Denver Broncos to cover |
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01-02-21 | Oregon +5 v. Iowa State | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
The Ducks got into the Pacific-12 Conference title game only because Washington had to drop out because of coronavirus concerns. Oregon made the most of the opportunity by defeating host USC 31-24 for the championship and Im betting they will make the best of this bowl appearance. CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 22-12 L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. CFB team (OREGON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 or more YPR), after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game are 35-9 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Oregon to cover |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
These teams Ohio State and Clemson took part in a 29-23 Championship event last season and Im betting on another close tilt this time around that will see the underdog cover. CFB team (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 51-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama -19.5 | 14-31 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Notre Dame had a fine campaign, but they were exposed by Clemson in a one sided loss late in the season. Its the Irish D, that showed the most promise this season, but the Tigers slashed them, and Alabama is a side that can and Im betting will do similar damage in what my projections estimate will end uo in a one sided Alabama victory. The Crimson Tide (11-0) topped 50 points six times and averaged 49.7 points second-best nationally, and have the guns to dismember any team in the nation, including a Irish program I have a high degree of respect for. Bama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian Im sure detected and dissected what Clemson did in the victory vs Notre Dame. NFL Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NOTRE DAME) - after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 98-164 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate. Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 104-1 SU in his career when favored by 17 or more points. Play on Alabama to cover
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia OVER 49.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 195 h 34 m | Show | |
Starting in the past three games, Georgia Bulldogs QB Daniels has thrown for 839 yards, nine touchdowns and an interception in wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina and then-No. 25 Missouri. Georgia averaged 41.6 in those games after the Bulldogs scored at least 40 just once in the previous six games. So needless to say there is new offensive life in the Dawgs bark , and they will give Cincinnati's strong defense their biggest test of the season, according to my projections. Meanwhile, the Bearcats, offense , is led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year who has 2,090 passing yards, with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has rushed for 609 yards and a team-high 12 scores and can move the ball against any D in the nation behind an assorted balanced group as Seven Bearcats have at least 186 yards and a touchdown receiving, led by Josh Whyle's 318 yards and five scores. Im betting on alot more points here than the lines-makers are anticipating. CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-4 OVER L/5 seasons for 91% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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12-31-20 | West Virginia v. Army +7 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Army Head coach Jeff Monken is 3-0 so far with the Knights in bowls and the program has won four straight going back to 1986. I have alot of respect for this HC, and his ability to have this team ready to play West Virginia here today. CFB team (ARMY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 6 points or less last game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State +1.5 v. Tulsa | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
The Bulldogs (3-7) will make a school-record 11th consecutive bowl appearance, while the Golden Hurricane (6-2) will play in their first bowl since 2016 when they meet on New Year's Eve in the Armed Forces Bowl at Fort Worth, Texas. Tulsa behind a top tier D had a fine season, but Mississippi State is a power 5 team from one of the strongest conferences in the nation and deserve our respect here in this spot. It must be noted noted that. the underdog dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six Mississippi State bowl games and HC Mike Leach stands tall with a 26-11 ATS as a road dog against sides like Tulsa with a better record. Considering ACC bowl sides are just 1-5 ATS L/6 vs a the ACC, it was not a hard decision for me to pull the trigger with the Bulldogs. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest +10.5 | 42-28 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
Mayo Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC Wisconsin at 3-3 on the season is getting far to much respect here in a rebuilding year. I know Wake forest finished the season, on a 0-2 run but ot must be noted that head coach Dave Clawson, when off consecutive losses, is a bankroll expanding 10-0 ATS when the last loss was a double-digit ATS defeat, which was the case . Clawson is also 8-0 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of WAKE FOREST. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -7 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Colorado used to be a member of the Big 12 conference and it must be noted that when Texas played the Buffs they smashed them in five straight games by an average margin of 32.8 points. I know these are different manifestations of these football programs, but from a matchup perspective my projections. make the Longhorns DD favs in this spot thus we have value based on my numbers. Texas HC Herman is 16-5 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached with a the average ppg diff clicking in at +22.6 ppg. Texas is 3-1 in the Alamo Bowl, including a 38-10 win over Utah last season. With Herman at the helm of the program Texas is 3-0 in bowl games, winning by an average of 17.3 ppg. |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | 38-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
The Bills who have clinched a play off appearance won 24-21 on Nov. 1 in Buffalo vs the Patriots. The Patriots haven't been swept by a division opponent in 19 seasons, and Im betting the Pats will primed to keep that streak alive, and wont go down without a fight vs a side that may be looking ahead to the play offs and just as importantly staying healthy. Note: New England when they are seeking a same-season division loss under Bill Belichick, are 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS the L/16 opportunities. |
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12-27-20 | Eagles -3 v. Cowboys | 17-37 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
Philadelphia (4-9-1) looking good behind their rookie QB Hurts . He won his first career start before another solid showing by the rookie in a 33-26 loss to Arizona pushed the defending NFC East champion to the brink of elimination.Since 2017 when they won the Super Bowl, the Eagles are 11-2 in games they must win or they'd be eliminated from the playoffs or mathematically knocked out of contention. rinse and repeat with Hurts top tier QB effort to be the difference maker vs Dalton and a Cowboys team that is extremely inconsistent. NFL Underdogs or pick (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 9-36 ats L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road loss, with a losing record are 18-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 50 | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
Both teams have dealt with plenty of injuries, the Cowboys hardest hit on the offensive line while the Eagles have had issues there and in the receiving group and that will help contribute to seeing this combined score to fail to eclipse the total.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER vs. struggling defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game this season. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 UNDER after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 28-6 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-27-20 | Panthers +1 v. Washington Football Team | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
When these teams last met last season, Washington beat Carolina, and Rivera was fired two days later. Now he has the chance with some former players around to celebrate the improbable accomplishment of making the playoffs with a victory and a New York Giants loss to Baltimore. Revenge and a play appearance is a powerful motivator favoring Carolina. CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. NFL Home teams (WASHINGTON) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 11-37 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - off a road loss, with a losing record are 41-18 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.
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12-27-20 | Bears v. Jaguars +7.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
Ok we have gone crazy here with this chalk line in my opinion favoring Chicago. I know the Bears are much improved since Trubisky got back under center , but since when has he been considered to be a consistent QB. Im just not sold, and will take advantage of recency bias based on the Bears and Jaguars current proverbial opposite performance forms . By the way no I dont believe the Jags are in tank mode, as they look for Clemson pivot Trevor Lawrence in the draft.CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +10 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
Darnold was 22 of 31 for 207 yards and a season-best 71% completion percentage with a touchdown and no turnovers against the Rams last time out . Darnold's 99.8 quarterback rating was also a high for this season. Now brimming with confidence Im betting on the Jets to make the Browns work for a win here. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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12-27-20 | Falcons v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Atlanta is missing two key starters for this tilt against KC on its offensive line, which Im betting will effect its ability to pass block for Matt Ryan which will mute the Falcons flow. Meanwhile, KC after knowing its play off destiny is firmly in place, will play conservatively and make sure they stay as healthy as possible. Plus its never easy playing in the windy confines of this stadium, and that also will effect both sides offensive flow in a game Im betting failts to eclipse the total. |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders +2.5 | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
The Dolphins need this win badly to get into the plays offs which means their will be alot of pressure on them here on the road with a rookie QB at the helm of the offense. Its never easy traveling from west to east , which the Fins are doing. Also the Raiders have a few more days of preparation time for this tilt which Im betting gives them an edge. Gruden is 21-9 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points in all games he has coached. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LAS VEGAS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 36-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Raiders |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State UNDER 50 | 21-39 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
The W.Kentucky Hilltoppers rank fifth in the conference in scoring defense (24.1). They lead Conference USA in pass defense, allowing 170.1 yards per game and Im betting they are well suited to slow down Georgia States attack. Meanwhile, on the flip side the Toppers, are offensively unstable and have only averaged 18 ppg away from home this season, and Im betting their inability to score will once again be on display today in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. GEORGIA ST is 11-0 UNDER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games since 1992 averaging with an average combined score of 46.6 ppg going on the board. CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 42-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints -7 | 33-52 | Win | 106 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
I know Drew Brees has looked rusty since returning from injury, but Im betting he will be ready to perform at a top level this week after having enough snaps last week to get back into a groove. He will especially primed to perform as will his team mates vs a Vikings side that defeated the Saints in overtime with a FG in last year’s Wild Card game. Revenge is a huge motivator and deserves attention. NFL team (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 or more YPP), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 37-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125-150 RY/G) against a poor rushing defense (125-150 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 23-2 L/37 seasons for a 92% conversion rate SU for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.7 ppg. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +5.5 v. Buffalo | 10-17 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Two strong sides off of champinship games losses, are not looking as viable as they did earlier in the season. Marshall (7-2) was ranked as high as 15th after jumping out to a 7-0 start behind a staunch defense and I have more confidence backing them then a I do a Buffalo Defence, that has run mostly cold this season as is evident by allowing 41 and 38 points in 2 of their L/3 games. Note: MAC bowlers with a win percentage of .833 or better have lost 8 of the L/9 opportunities SU.MARSHALL is 12-3 ATS in a bowl game since 1992. MARSHALL is 14-3 ATS in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return since 1992. BUFFALO is 12-25 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. Play on Marshall to cover |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston UNDER 60.5 | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Hawaiis offense has not been as explosive as it has been in recent seasons, and that was evident in their 3 road games where they averaged 17 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense has not looked as bad as recent incarnations, and the program under Graham now looks different rankingn in the top 30 for Success Rate. This season Hawaii has had success via their run game, as the rushing attack is top-10 in the nation in explosiveness while maintaining a Line Yards rank of 26th. Considering their current form and the way the Warriors play, Im expecting them to look to grind this clock down with a run heavy attack, and remain conservative in their game plan vs a Houston side that has run hot and cold on offense all season long. Note: Houstons HC Holgorsen is 9-1 UNDER in December games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 55 ppg scored. |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9 v. Memphis | 10-25 | Loss | -116 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic after allowing 20 points or less in 6 straight games, finally looked flat last time out in a loss to Southern Miss . With that said, Im betting on the FAU getting back to business and showing us how tough their D can be, against a Memphis side that is known for top tier offensive assaults. Note: Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield, is 1-7 SUATS in its last eight bowl games, including 0-5 SUATS the last five overall. Meanwhile, the Owls, are 4-0 SUATS all-time in bowl games . MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS in December games since 1992. MEMPHIS is 21-38 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.Play on FAU to cover |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis UNDER 52 | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA The Tigers took a backward step this season from an offensive perspective and ended the regular season going under the total in three straight tilts against FBS opposition while overall ranking of 99th in Rushing Success Rate and 109th in Line Yards . The Tiger just cant run the ball well thus making them easy to read. That will once again be the case vs a staunch Florida Atlantic D, that allowed 20 points or less in 6 straight games before a lackluster effort in their final game of the season vs Southern Miss, but that was because of their run D, something Mempjhis will not be able to exploit in the same way . Meanwhile, on the flipside the Owls offense has struggled all season long ranking 115th on offensive standard downs Success Rate. Considering both sides of offensive discrepancies and than adding in Florida Atlantic's top tier stopping unit, has me recommending we take the under. CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA ATLANTIC/ MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
12-22-20 | Central Florida +4.5 v. BYU | 23-49 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 46 m | Show | |
The matchup pits two of the top offenses in the country against each other. UCF ranks second in the nation in total offense (585 yards per game) while BYU is 10th (510 yards per game). The game features two of the best quarterbacks in the nation. I look for both teams to tee off on each other and for this to be a one possession game that favors the side getting points according to my projections. BYU is 0-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. Sitake is 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of BYU. CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (BYU) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 9-21 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. UCF to cover |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 57 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID Despite the Green Wave overall good defensive numbers they have had issues against top tier passing sides, as is evident by defending pass explosiveness, ranking 124th in the nation. Meanwhile, Nevada QB Carson Strong finished the season as one of the top passers in the nation, ranking sixth among all quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage. So Im betting the Wolfpack have some cohesiveness through the air today, and will look downfield quite alot knowing how tough the Green Wave run defense can be. On the flipside one again, Tulane does like to run the ball alot that can grind down the clock, but new New offensive coordinator Chip Long formerly with Notre Dame after having two week to prepare for thsi tilt, will be ready to throw some new stuff into the mix and Im betting Nevada wont be able to deal with it all that well. This is not a conference game, and will be played alot less tightly than those type of affairs thats why I expect this total to be eclipsed. CFBeams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NEVADA) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with a poor defense (390-440 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-14 OVER l/28 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 40 | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 11 m | Show | |
Im betting on Pittsburgh grinding away in methodical fashion here this week on the road in Cincinnati, while the Bengals offense will struggle to score on the Steelers top tier group. The Steelers are 0-20-1 UNDER L/21 on the road facing a team scoring less than 23 points per game. Play Under - Home teams against the total (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 25-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 38.2 ppg. Play UNDER |
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12-21-20 | Steelers -14 v. Bengals | 17-27 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State OVER 66.5 | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
The Mean Green own one of the fastest offenses of all FBS ranking second in tempo and this team takes a no prisoners approach to moving the chains through the air. I know App State owns a tremendous secondary, but I still expect N.Texas to do a degree of damage while their own D, which ranks outside the top 100 in tackling, Line Yards and Finishing Drives. App State has not always had alot of flow on offense this season, but the offensive line has still produced a top-30 ranking in Line Yards and Power Success Rate and Im betting they have a great deal of success today in what promises to see a combined score that eclipses the total. Play OVER |
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12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | 20-6 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
The Giants and Browns both are looking for a play off appearance but the Gmen are more desperate in a bid for their first playoff berth since 2016. The Giants had their four-game winning streak snapped by Arizona last weekend and fell a game behind first-place Washington (6-7) in the NFC East and will now be ready to rebound and play this game like its their last. The Browns are 0-8-2 ATS coming off a loss where they failed to cover. The Browns are 0-5 ATS L/5 as a road favorite. The Giants are 8-0 ATS L/8 when the total is over 46 and they are coming off a home game. |