Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Navy OVER 66 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 245 h 52 m | Show | |
LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX LA Tech averaged 44 ppg on offense this season, and allowed 32.6 ppg on defense. Meanwhile, Navy average scored an average of 37.4 ppg and allowed 29.7 ppg. I expect both will do a load of scoring today in game that easily eclipses the total. LOUISIANA TECH is 7-0 OVER L/7 when the total is between 63.5 and 70 this season with a combined average of 82 ppg going on the scoreboard. LA Techs Holtz is 12-4 OVER L/18 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game with an average of 72.3 ppg getting scored. Play OVER 1 unit reg selection |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State v. Idaho +15 | 50-61 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
Both these teams enter this tilt on 7-0 ATS runs. Colorado State , however, finished their season with a 63-31 smash down of Mountain West ChampsSan Diego State, and have been made hefty favorites in part for the aforementioned win. Meanwhile, Idaho is still no push over, and are being disrespected by the linesmakers in this spot. Yes, I do know Colorado State showed off an explosive offense, during their campaign, but The Idaho defense limited three of its last four opponents to 14 or fewer points. |
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12-20-16 | Memphis +5 v. Western Kentucky | 31-51 | Loss | -110 | 294 h 23 m | Show | |
BOCA RATON BOWL - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL Memphis vs W.Kentucky Alot has been said about Western Kentucky, and its explosive offense, but their achillies heel is their defense that was torched by LA Tech twice this season for 50 plus points. I know the Toppers D numbers are stable, but that was against weak to average opposition. Im betting that's going to be the Hilltoppers demise this week, vs a Memphis side ranked 17th in scoring offense (39.5 points per game) finished its season with a 48-44 upset over 18th-ranked Houston. The Tigers are led by junior QB Riley Ferguson, who compiled a amazing 152.2 passing rating (28 TDs, 3,326 yards). This will be a back and forth affair, but the Tigers will make a few more key stops that will be the difference maker today Play on the Memphis Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-18-16 | Raiders -3 v. Chargers | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 53 h 34 m | Show | |
The Oakland Raiders visit the San Diego Chargers in a game that will feature two to the best QBs in the NFL. The Chargers Philip Rivers and Raiders Derek Carr. Both teams have offensive weapons, but Im betting on the Raiders being able to make a few more key stops, to pull off a victory here this Sunday. Chargers HC McCoy is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game, like the Raiders losing SU by an average of 8.9 ppg. SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 in road games against conference opponents. Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-18-16 | Saints +3 v. Cardinals | 48-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
After losing to the Miami Dolphins last week 26-23 in heart breaking fashion, the Arizona Cards are now out of the running for a post season birth and come home in a big time letdown situation. Now enters Drew Brees and the leagues No. 1-rated offense of the Saints, who are averaging 418.3 yards per game. I know Arizona has put big defensive numbers up this season, but they are dealing with some injury issues, and as mentioned above a motivational issue this week. Arizona has also failed to cover 4 straight final home games of the season and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS L/17 as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home favorites Cardinals - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are a bankroll depleting 15-44 ATS in their followup for a 75% go against conversion rate on the line. Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-18-16 | Titans +5.5 v. Chiefs | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 13 m | Show | |
Just one victory away from clinching a spot in the AFC playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I am however, betting that win if they get it will come so easily. The 7-6 Titans will arrive in Kansas City with their postseason chances still alive and will play for their lives here today. I know the Titans QB Mariota is off a down game last time vs Denver, but the AFC's Offensive Player of the Month in November will bounce back in a big way. Last week, the Cheifs were lucky to stall the Raiders, in key red zone situations, but this week, they face a Tennessee side that owns the NFL's top offense in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 71.4 percent of its 42 trips inside the 20-yard line . HC Reid of KC is 1-9 ATS in lifetime home games against AFC South division opponents. Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
Cincinnati despite of suffering through a down year, have won and covered two straight, and have been very competitive in 6 straight games, losing by 1 , 4, and points in their losses. Today against their instate rivals the Steelers I expect we will see the very best of the Bengals, as they would love nothing more than to upset their play off expectations. PITTSBURGH is 5-16 ATS L/21 in road games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games. CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS L/9 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. The Bengals are a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 home situations. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-18-16 | Jaguars +5.5 v. Texans | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Houston after suffering 3 straight losses snapped their losing streak with a 22-17 win vs the Indy Colts last week. Their running game and a grinding methodical effort got them to the promised land. But it must be noted that HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS L/6 after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. I know Jacksonville may not inspire alot of bettors, but according to my own power ranking should only be 3 point dogs, here which gives us value on the line. Road underdogs or pick like the Jags - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 51-21 ATS for a massive 70% conversion rate for betting backers. Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-17-16 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -1 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 221 h 6 m | Show | |
CAMELLIA BOWL - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL Toledo vs App State Both these teams are offensively capable, but according to my matchup analysis, the Rockets are better overall with their attack, and did their best work against superior opponents than the Mountaineers . Alot has been said, about App States D, but Toledo despite of being torched by a few explosive offenses, this season, are a stop unit that must not be under estimated. Appalachian State is 0-4 ATS in their last four games on field turf;TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS L/7 in non-conference games and 4-0-1 ATS L/5 vs Sun Belt opposition. Play on Toledo to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-17-16 | Arkansas State +6 v. Central Florida | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 81 h 32 m | Show | |
AUTONATION CURE BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL Arkansas State vs UCF - Arkansas State after a slow start to the season, really picked up alot of steam as the campaign progressed. On offense the Red Wolves have scored 30 or more in five of their last six games -- the only one without 30 points being the only loss in those six games. The Red Wolves defense was solid all season long, but got even better as the season progressed, and will give the Knights offense alot of problems. Meanwhile, UCF is 0-6 against Bowl teams this season and lost the stats war in 8 straight games to finish their campaign. Needless to say we have a bit of a false favorite scenario here. Note: The favorite has lost the L/4 UCF Bowl games. Play on Arkansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -7 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 39 m | Show | |
GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM New Mexico started the season very slowly but rebounded to go 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games to make a rare bowl appearance and will be pumped up to get a win.The Lobos have gotten to this point in the season behind a explosive top-ranked rushing attack. New Mexico, averaging 360.9 rushing yards per game, behind two 1000-yard rushers with Teriyon Gipson and Tyrone Owens, mowing over opposition defenses on a consistent basis . The Lobos offense ranks No. 22-in the nation (37.83 PPG) against a UTSA Roadrunners defense that ranks No. 69 allowing an average of 28.33 PPG. I expect the Lobos win this one with their rush attack by smashing and crashing and wearing down a UTSA Defense, that can be gashed for big yards . Hey guys, I know the Lobos D, is irrelevant and very porous, but New Mexico has found a way to win the war of attrition under similar circumstances this season, and will get the job done again in front of what should see them backed by a majority of the crowd in Albuquerque. CFB Home favorites like New Mexico - excellent rushing team (4.8 YPR or more) against a team with a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 36-14 ATS dating back 24 years. |
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12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 38.5 | 3-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
The LA Rams enter this game, with a new interim head coach, after getting blown out last Sunday 42-12 by Atlanta, and have allowed an average of 39 ppg in their L/3 gridiron embarrassments. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are off a 38-10 smack down at the hands of the GB Packers. This week, I expect the Seahawks to come out on fire, and not let up until the final whistle. The lines-makers agree with my assessment, and have made the home side 15 point favorites, something Im not touching based on stubborn principle alone. But with that said, I can see the Seahawks putting enough points on the board , to eclipse this total almost all by themselves. ( Seattle has scored 26,31,26, and 40 points in their L/4 home games) SEATTLE is 23-9 OVER L/31 in home games after a loss by 14 or more points with an average of 45 ppg going on the scoreboard. Road teams like the LA Rams a poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games have gone over 26 of the L/31 times for a massive 84% conversion rate for over bettors.. NFL FAVORITES of -15 or more points like the Seattle Seahawks have only once failed to eclipse the total 11 times dating back four seasons for a 90% conversion rate for OVER bettors .
Play OVER 1 unit reg selection |
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12-11-16 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 45 | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 52 m | Show | |
The LA Rams have a rookie QB Goff at the helm of the offense, and have struggled mightily with him in or out, as is evident by ranking last in the NFL in scoring offense averaging just 15 ppg, and Im betting will make the Falcons swiss cheese D, look decent this week. The average combined score of a Rams home game has seen 27 ppg go on the board. Today against Atlanta's explosive offense, Im sure they will tread lightly and go to their ground game in methodical fashion, as they carve out a game plan for an upset. |
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12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 46 | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 48 m | Show | |
We have two teams the Green Bay Packers and the visiting Seattle Seahawks, both play strong defense this season. The Seahawks are the No.1 team in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 16.2 ppg and have gone under in 10 of their L/11 on the road, in non division NFC matches with a combined average score o 32.9 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Green Bay is ranked No.13 in overall D and they have gone under in 10 of their L/11 non division home games vs NC opposition with a combined average of 39.8 ppg going on the board. Both these teams have allowed 14 points or less in their L/2 games and Im betting both stand tall again on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. |
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12-11-16 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
The Indy Colts and Houston Texans have a recent history of playing lower scoring affairs here in Indianapolis , with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 34.8 ppg. The Colts have also gone under in 19 of their L/23 division home games. Meanwhile, the Texans continue to struggle on offense,averaging 17.2 ppg overall and on the road have averaged just 13.2 ppg and scored 13 points last week, which from a trends perspective at least tells me they could struggle again, as they have gone under 6 straight times after putting 13 or less points on the board. The Texans only saving grace has been a decent D, that has allowed 21.4 ppg this season. In the Texans 6 road games this season they have combined to average 38.9 ppg. Im betting on another lower scoring game here this Sunday that remains on the low side of the number. |
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12-11-16 | Steelers -2.5 v. Bills | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show | |
Sunday's matchup between rust belt rivals Pittsburgh and Buffalo sets up a situation where a Steelers team that is on a three game winning streak uses its momentum to take out their hosts the Bills.Pittsburgh a side that has won 6 straight stats battles,controls its fate over the final four weeks of this season, and cannot afford a single loss, and will play like its sudden death. The Bills (6-6) are not out of the playoff picture, but things look dim. When looking at the matchup the main issues that Buffalo's has is a ugly pass offense that ranks last in the NFL .Im betting they will have trouble again this week, keeping up with a balanced Pittsburgh attack, that can score through the air or with the ground game. ( Steelers are 9-1 SU L/10 vs the Bills). |
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12-11-16 | Cardinals -2 v. Dolphins | 23-26 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 22 m | Show | |
Miami is a over rated side, and have lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 games. They entered last week with 6 straight wins, before falling apart in a 38-6 smack down at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. Now the Fins go against a Arizona side with a 5-6- 1-record and are in a no mistake free zone. HC Arians and company can not afford another loss if they hope to get into the play offs, so they will be primed to get a victory, and will be ready to play with some heart and soul. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 1-9 ATS L/10 vs below .500 NFC visiting sides, and have only covered 5 o their 19 vs the NFC West. MIAMI is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season .MIAMI is 0-10 ATS L/11 in December games and is 0-6 ATS L/6 after allowing 35 points or more last game. Cards HC Arians is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games in December games as the coach |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3 v. Chiefs | 13-21 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
Kansas City and Oakland do battle tonight, in a AFC battle, that should be hard fought. The Chiefs despite of their current 7-1 run, have been through some brutal battles, and have lost the stats wars in their L/5 games and are pretty lucky to be on this big of a run. I know KC beat up up on the Raiders in a earlier meeting in the Black hole, earlier this season 26-10, but things are different now with super star QB Carr moving into top tier NFL status. With that said, the Raiders must be respected enough to get the revenge they seek. Oakland is a perfect 9-0 SU/ATS as a division road underdog of 6 points or less. We know how explosive Oakland can be on offense, but the D, has shown some inadequacies. But it must be noted that KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game.OAKLAND is 9-0 ATS L/9 as a road underdog . OAKLAND is 10-0 ATS L/10 in road games against conference opponents. Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-05-16 | Colts -2 v. Jets | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
With Andrew Luck now expected to play, I have decided to pull the trigger on the Indianapolis Colts tonight in their battle with the downtrodden NY Jets.Colts still have a chance at the paly offs and will be playing with desperation. Meanwhile, despite of NYJ fans demanding a QB change, the Jets will once again go with the struggling Fitzpatrick who has thrown 13 interceptions in 10 games. Fitzpatrick has completed just 57.6 percent of his passes and looks unstable at best, and gives even more credence in my decision to lay it with Indy on the road. Andrew Luck is 19-4 SU and 16-4-3 ATS in division games and a perfect 8-0 SU of a Colts loss. INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS L/27 as a road favorite of 3 points or less and HC Pogano Pagano is 10-2 ATS L/12 vs. lower tier teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season.
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks OVER 44 | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 84 h 37 m | Show | |
The Seahawks (7-3-1) and coming off another one of their boring and unmotivated losses. This team just seems to fall asleep at the proverbial wheel against lower tier teams. The14-5 loss at Tampa Bay solidified their inconsistent mannerisms. The good nws for us today is that Settles HC Carroll is 7-0 OVER L/7 in Seattle home games after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points with the combined average of those games clicking in at 52.4 ppg. Seattle has also seen an average of 49.3 ppg go on the board at home against lower tier secondaries like Carolinas, allowing 260 or more yards a game Note: CAROLINA is 10-1 OVER L/10 vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att with a cmbined average of 62.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.SEATTLE is 13-4 OVER L/17 in home games after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. Meanwhile, Carolina, with a 4-7 record continues to flounder, mostly because of defensive lapses late in games, and their inability to hold leads. Condionting could be an issue , with their D, which is never a good omen in a league that has seen alot of late fourth quarter scoring this season. Last week after an early lead they lost to comeback kids Oakland by a 35-32 score. Carolinas HC Rivera is 15-4 OVER L/19 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average score of 54.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. CAROLINA is 20-8 OVER L/28 in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game.CAROLINA is 15-6 OVER L/21 in road games. Considering Carolinas current form from both a defensive and offensive standpoint another high scoring game is a good bet here. The Panthers are 13-0 OU since Ron Rivera became their coach in 2011 as a dog of more than six points with the combined average score of those games clicking in at 58.3 ppg. NFL teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like the Seahawks- off 2 or more consecutive unders, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game have gone over 55 of the L/76 times for a league wide 70% conversion rate for over bettors. Play OVER 1 unit reg selection |
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12-04-16 | Redskins v. Cardinals -2.5 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 102 h 1 m | Show | |
Arizona might not inspire alot of bettors right now after a very inconsistent season, but according to my power rankings, Washington is over rated and in a bad spot this week.It must also be noted that teams playing in non-division contests following a Thanksgiving Day appearance have lost 35 of 56 games (SU) and since 1992 are just 9-21 ATS L/30 and 9-20-1 SU away after their big Turkey dinner.. With that said, for at least one game , I expect we see a vintage Cards team take advantage of a shabby Skins D, and for their own D, to stand tall in the desert vs a Washington offense that will not be running on a full tank of gas. |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers OVER 47 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 96 h 25 m | Show | |
The Chargers enter this game playing alot of back forth games , with the home games being particularly high scoring with an average of 57.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. With Tampa Bays offense starting to click I can see them doing some damage offensively this week. I know that their D, looked good against Seattle last week, allowing just 5 points . But it must be noted that all non division road sides that allowed 6 points or less in a previous home game are 8-0 on the over in the proceeding game. Yes, I do know that TB scored just 14 points in that win, but non division pups off a SU/ATS win at home where they scored 14 or less points are 10-0-1 to the over dating back 8 seasons. TB is 8-0 over L/8 vs Chargers with a a combined average of 51.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. |
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12-04-16 | Lions v. Saints -5.5 | 28-13 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 39 m | Show | |
New Orleans enters this game playing their best football of the season and have out stated their L/7 opponents since their bye week. Meanwhile, the Lions are off a crazy win thanks to last minute interception vs Minnesota on Thanks giving Day, after being down by 3 points with a few minutes left on the clock. With that said, I now expect the Lions to be in a letdown spot, after that emotional victory, It must also be noted the Saints are 3-17 SU in their L/20 post game situations after Turkey day and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5. NEW ORLEANS is also a perfect 8-0 ATS L/8 versus good offensive teams like the Lions - averaging 5.65 yards/play dating back to last season.DETROIT is 1-11 ATS L/12 in road games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games and is 8-26 ATS L/34 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Play on New Orleans to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-16 | Penn State v. Wisconsin -2.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 16 m | Show | |
I was hoping to see this matchup this week, and low in behold I get my wish. According to my own data base matchups Wisconsin on a neutral field should be 4.5 point favorities, but on further considerations, my player to player and offensive/defensive unit correlations tell me that this could easily be a 6 point plus victory for the Badgers. Thus laying points here is a viable investment option. Note: Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook is said to be feeling better after a some light head trauma last week, and despite of his status being day to day, may pundits expect he will play in this big game. If not his so called back up Houston is a very viable option and in my opinion the superior QB. HC Franklin of Penn State is 0-9 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team .750 or better win %. PENN ST is 20-43 ATS L/63 versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 or less yards/game like Wisconsin and 8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games when playing on a Saturday this season. Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-16 | Georgia State v. Idaho -6.5 | 12-37 | Win | 100 | 126 h 50 m | Show | |
Georgia State (3-8) has struggled this season, and are 0-5 on the road while averaging just 13 ppg on offense. Their rush D, has allowed an average of 236 ypg, when on the road, and thats not a good omen for this chances at a win or cover here vs a Idaho side that is 8-0 ATS L/8 when they rush for 150-to 200 ypg. IDAHO is 10-1 ATS L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record and 6-0 ATS when playing against a lower tier team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) Play on Idaho to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-16 | Baylor +16.5 v. West Virginia | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 125 h 50 m | Show | |
We have a good situation to bet into here with Baylor as big double digit underdogs. I know the Bears have not looked all that stable of late, but West Virginia despite of a win last week, against Iowa State have shown some late season defensive holes, and have allowed 218, 316, and 190 yards rushing in their L/3 and are looking tired as a unit. Thats something Baylor can take advantage of via a run game that has averaged 5.8 ypc on the road and an average 326 ypg. It must be noted that WV HC Holgorsen is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game which happend vs Iowa State last week. Play on Baylor to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-16 | Temple +3 v. Navy | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 122 h 54 m | Show | |
AAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Navy Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD |
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12-03-16 | Kansas State +4.5 v. TCU | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 122 h 31 m | Show | |
Kansas State has proven a great deal to me this season, have already beaten up on Baylor in a road tilt this season. I have been impressed with their overall tenaciousness, and once again feel the Cats are solid underdogs this week vs a over rated opponent. It must be noted that TCU QB Kenny Hill hurt his foot last week, and if he plays will be less than 100% as is the case with RB Kyle Hicks with a rib injury. TCU is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points dating back to last season and has failed to cover their L/6 home games. Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky -9.5 | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 117 h 11 m | Show | |
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - LT Smith Stadium - Bowling Green, KY LA Tech beat W.Kentucy 55-52 in their first matchup this season at LA Tech. But now with revenge on board and front of what will be partisan home crowd I expect the tables will be reversed in a big way. With the ‘Toppers get revenge at home behind the arm of QB White and legs of RB Wales, and their more consistent defense will be the difference maker this week. W KENTUCKY is 12-4 ATS L/16 against conference opponents dating back to last season. A home team like Western Kentucky - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 26-8 ATS since 1991. Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-02-16 | Ohio +19 v. Western Michigan | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 52 h 3 m | Show | |
Western Michigan still undefeated smashed Toledo last week in a DD win despite of losing the stats sheet battle, and now the College football world expects another easy win for the Bronos this week vs the Ohio Bobcats. However, I am not going to follow the party line and instead in contrarian fashion, expect the Bobbies to make a game of this MAC Championship event. It must be noted that in the past the W.Mich has covered only 1 of 5 games after a 20 point or more victory, while Ohio has covered 5 of their L/6 as DD conference dogs. Also MAC Championship games with a favorite of 7 or more points has crashed and burned 5 of the L/6 times with undefeated teams going 0-3 ATS while losing 2 times. After last weeks showdown with Toledo, Western Michigan is a precarious emotional situation, and despite of that win , as mentioned above lost the overall stats battle. |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | 17-15 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
Dallas is third in the league in scoring, averaging 28.7 points per game, and is fifth in total offense with 407.6 yards and have proven they can light up the best of defenses. In their L/6 games they have scored, 30, 29,35,35,27, 31 points respectively. With that said, Im betting they do some damage offensively tonight, and Minnesota in turn will have no choice but to open up and reciprocate with some fireworks of their own. That can cause , turnovers, interceptions and more scoring chances which will help this total score eclipse the number. The Vikings are 14-0 OU on turf off a loss as a dog when they are a dog by a TD or less to a non-divisional opponent that has a better record with a combined average of 60.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. ( The lowest total combined score during this run was 46 pts) MINNESOTA is 29-12 OVER L/41 vs. top tier passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the scoreboard. HC Garrett is 12-3 OVER L/15 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season with a combined average of 59.2 ppg getting scored. Play OVER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 58 m | Show | |
Green Bay and Philadelphia are in slumps, and both need a win here badly. The Packers have lost four in a row , while the Eagles have crashed back to Earth with losses in five of their last seven games, and last week at Seattle lost by 11 points. Hoever, the Green Machine's other four losses have come by a combined 19 points. Those close games tell me nothing comes easy for the Eagles, win or lose , thus getting and taking points with another desperate team makes extreme sense.With both teams banged up and both are dealing with disadvantages, neither team has a solid advantage, other than home field advantage, which is desingnated via the line. But in a key game like this, Im betting on QB Aaron Rodgers out dueling Eagles rookie under center Carson Wentz. From a long term NFL trends perspective, Road teams like the Packers - off a road loss, in November games are 170-108 ATS L/278 games for a 61% conversion rate on the line. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like GB - off a road loss, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season, are 106 -60 ATS for a 63% conversion rate. Home teams like the Eagles - off a road loss against opponent off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more like the Packers are 72-120 ATS L/192 for go against conversion rate on the line of 63%. Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-27-16 | 49ers v. Dolphins UNDER 44.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -107 | 89 h 27 m | Show | |
Miami loves to pound the ball on the ground , while the 49ers have a horrendous time scoring. These two attributes will help keep this game on the low side of the number, in humid and soggy Miami today. |
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11-27-16 | Cardinals v. Falcons OVER 50 | 19-38 | Win | 100 | 89 h 26 m | Show | |
Atlantas offense continues to be the top scoring unit in the league averaging 32 ppg. Meanwhile, Arizona's usually tough D, is getting smacked around of late, allowing 27 ppg in their L/3 overall. The Falcons have gone over in all 4 of their home games this season with a combined average of 65.9 ppg going on the scoreboard. It must also be noted that when NFC South teams go against NFC West sides the games have eclipsed the number 16 of 20 times for a 80% conversion rate. Play OVER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-27-16 | Giants v. Browns UNDER 44 | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 89 h 25 m | Show | |
Cleveland's offense is a disaster scoring 10, 9 and 7 points respectively in their L/3 games. Scoring for the Browns will be a challenge once again this week vs a fairly consistent and decent Giants defense that is allowing an average of 19 ppg on road. The Gmens offense averages 15.7 ppg on the road. As you can see futility is the name of this game, and score that remains on the low side of the Total is a strong probability and a good wager. NY GIANTS are 12-2 UNDER L/14 in road games vs. lower tier teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season with a combined average of 32.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. CLEVELAND is 10-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season with an average of 36.4 ppg going on the board. NY GIANTS are 13-1 UNDER L/14 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points with an average of of 33.1 ppg getting scored. NFL teams like Cleveland where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after 5 or more consecutive losses, a lower tier team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season have gone under 26 of the L/31 times for a 84% conversion rate. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-27-16 | Rams +7.5 v. Saints | 21-49 | Loss | -113 | 89 h 23 m | Show | |
New Orleans has not been able to take advantage of teams like St.Louis in the recent past that struggle to score consistently. Payton is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game as the coach. Meanwhile the Rams have done well vs lower tier defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game. LA RAMS are 13-4 ATS L/17 in road games . |
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11-26-16 | UMass +7.5 v. Hawaii | 40-46 | Win | 100 | 83 h 54 m | Show | |
After putting on a crazy amount of air miles on their bodies this season, Hawaii really looks burned out, and have very little left in the proverbial tank. And yes, I know UMass does not give bettors a great deal of confidence, but they have shown flashes of some strong football, and are every bit as good as the Rainbow Warriors and will prove here tonight via a cover. HAWAII is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record dating back to last season and are 0-6 ATS L/6 as favorite and have failed to cover 7 straight November tilts and is 1-10 ATS L/11 in the second half of the season. Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-26-16 | Rice v. Stanford UNDER 55 | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
My own numbers suggest this total should be closer to 51 giving us a cushion of 4 points, which qualifies under my data criteria for totals. I really don't think Rice's offense will have much luck moving the ball this week, while I expect Stanford to get up early and than coast in the 2nd half , using alot of younger guys, and 2nd and third string players, which will see a muted combined score go on the board. Stanfords HC Shaw is 20-10 UNDER L/30 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 with an average of 48.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. College Football team against the total Rice - after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games and 33-8 on the UNDER.
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11-26-16 | North Texas -3 v. UTEP | 24-52 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection -late steam |
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11-26-16 | Mississippi State +8.5 v. Ole Miss | 55-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show | |
Ole Miss is off getting blasted as 10 point road favorites vs Vanderbilt last week losing a 38-17 decision. Which puts into play a league wide trend that shows Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Ole Mississippi - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in November games are a ugly 8-31 ATS in their follow up game . Meanwhile, Miss State of off a 58-42 home loss to Arkansas last week, where the offense still rolled up big numbers . This trend is from a league wide trend - A road team like Miss State - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-10 ATS. MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-1 ATS L/12 after playing a game at home over the last couple of seasons. Play on Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-26-16 | Boston College +3.5 v. Wake Forest | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show | |
After highly charged and brutally physical back to back games against Louisville and Clemson, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are in a tough situation against an extremely tough Boston College defense, that will once again punish their anemic offense. Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest are 12-30 ATS L/42 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-26-16 | Arkansas State -5 v. UL-Lafayette | 19-24 | Loss | -106 | 72 h 39 m | Show | |
Arkansas State has gotten progressively better as the season has gone on and are now a contender in the Sun Belt conference again. Last week they demolished Troy by a 34-7 count as 9 point dogs, and now this week as short road favorites vs a LA Lafayette team that showed promise earlier in the season, is struggling now and must be considered a strong go against bet. Lafayette has faded of late losing 4 of their L/6 SU. LA LAFAYETTE is 2-10 ATS L/12 in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.ARKANSAS ST is 15-4 ATS L/19 after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 in November games. |
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11-26-16 | Rutgers +14 v. Maryland | 13-31 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 18 m | Show | |
This is the ugly Betty, of the College Football rotational board this week, as Maryland hosts Rutgers. Both programs have looked like crap this season, and both do not inspire bettors. But while looking at my data base I noticed big DD dogs, under various futile parameters have shown these ugly dogs do well ATS vs these not so pretty favorites. The same type of trends anomalies showed up earlier this season when Rutgers were 18 point dogs at decent Minnesota and almost sprung the upset by losing a 32-34 decision. With little left to play for I doubt Maryland will be pumped up for this tilt and will probably just go through the motions in front a bunch of empty seats. Note: Maryland injury update [QB] 11/20/2016 - Perry Hills questionalble Saturday vs. Rutgers ( Shoulder ) and if he plays will be less than 100%. Play on Rutgers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-16 | Toledo +10 v. Western Michigan | 35-55 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a big MAC game between two of the better teams in the nation. I expect a hard fought affair from beginning to end, with the points eventually being golden for bettors. Grab the points for a solid bet. |
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11-24-16 | LSU -6.5 v. Texas A&M | 54-39 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
Two teams LSU and their hosts Texas A&M play this Thursday in a key game for both teams. The Tigers head coach Orgeron needs a signature win at a chance to remain as a long shot coach of LSU. (Doubtful but a win here might get him his shot) Meanwhile, the Aggies, at 8-3 would love to get a chance at a 10 win season, with a victory today and in their Bowl game. As is usually the case in big games, defense will be key. Both are stout, but LSU's D, when motivated and when in top form can stop the best of offenses in this conference and the country. (With both sides, expected to be without key offensive cogs, LSU - RB L. Fournette and Texas A&M starting QB Trevor Knight) D wins big games synopsis becomes more important than ever. TEXAS A&M is 1-12 ATS L/13 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return. TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread, which has just happened.TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games against conference opponents. TEXAS A&M is 1-11 ATS L/12 in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. LSU has won 5 straight meetings in this series. League Wide CFB Trend- Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Tigers - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 43-16 ATS. Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +2.5 v. Lions | 13-16 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
The Vikings enter this game with a 6-1 ATS record vs. a team with a winning record like Motown and 9-3 ATS in their L/12 road games. The Vikings won last time out, after an extended funk, and look ready to roll again. Meanwhile, the Lions are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC North and have only failed to cover 6 of the L/23 meetings in this series. |
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11-20-16 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 50 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 74 h 29 m | Show | |
The Packers enter this game on a three game losing streak, thanks to a defense that looks broken as is evident by allowing an average of 37 ppg during their current losing run. Their L/3 games have seen a combined average of 64.66 ppg go on the scoreboard. Now going against a Washington Redskins side in top form offensively averaging 461 ypg in their L/4 another big time out point of points must be expected. The Skins have gone over in all 5 of their home games , dating back to last season and one more is on the way here. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER L/6 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) with a combined average of 57.2 ppg going on the board.GREEN BAY is 15-1 OVER L/16 in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games sin with an average of 54.1 ppg getting scored. GREEN BAY is 16-5 OVER L/21 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season with a combined average of 58.7 ppg going on the scoreboard and 20-8 OVER L/28 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or better yards/play with a combined average of 56.2 ppg getting scored. Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-20-16 | Dolphins -1 v. Rams | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
The Rams' No. 1 pick in this spring's NFL draft out of the University of California Jared Goff makes his debut this Sunday. I know the LA fan base is all giddy, but they really should temper their expectations, as the NFL has seen very few rookie QBs make a splash out of the gate. The Rams (4-5) were held without an offensive touchdown for the third straight game in a 9-6 victory over the Jets in New York last week, but the problems go beyond the QB position.Los Angeles ranks last in scoring at 15.4 points per game and the former No.1 man under center Keenum-led offense is 31st in total offense with an average of 308 yard. Meawhile, Miami at team that has won 4 straight, stayed out on the west coast all week, and have got themselves acclimated to the time change, and will be more than ready for this tilt. Miami is 6-1 L/7 played in this series. |
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11-20-16 | Bucs +7.5 v. Chiefs | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show | |
Kansas City enters into this game vs Tampa Bay off a come from behind victory vs Carolina last week, after being down by double digits. Now because of that enormous comeback , they will be in a let an emotional down scenario this week at home in Arrowhead and alos in a look ahead situation with the defending Super Bowl champs Denver on board next week. Nothing has really come easy for KC this season despite of their positive record. Thanks to a fortunate plus-14 on takeaways/giveaways, which ranks them the No. 1 team in the league . They have forced 22 turnovers and given opponents eight fumbles and interceptions, and have scored 72 points off those takeaways. If it were not for those pumped up digits, and a tenacious D inside the red zone I would say this is an average team. Don;t get me wrong I like Andy Reids Chiefs, but I keep getting the nagging feeling that their offense will eventually ail them, and that what I am betting on this week. Last week banged up QB Alex Smith struggled at times, and only had one completion for more than 20 yards. This Sunday, Im betting Tampa Bays QB Winston and his top tier array of wide receivers, including super star Mike Evans get a jump on the Chiefs, and for this contest to be surprisingly close. With that said, take the points. |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 54 m | Show | |
The Cowboys (8-1) are riding an NFL-best eight-game winning streak but according to my own power rankings are getting far to much respect here vs the best defense in the NFL. I expect new No.1 QB Prescott will struggle this week, because of the Ravens ability to control play option, thanks to the Ravens top tier defensive line, which is allowing just 71.3 yards per game via the run , also best in the NFL. It must be noted that the Cowboys are the only team in the NFL that does not have a victory against the Ravens, losing each of the last four confrontations. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Baltimore- after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season are a bankroll expanding 35-12 ATS for a 75% conversion rate on the line. Note: Baltimore has not lost by more than 7 points this season. HC Garrett is 4-17 ATS L/21 in home games vs. lower tier passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse.
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11-19-16 | Air Force -10 v. San Jose State | 41-38 | Loss | -106 | 59 h 49 m | Show | |
Air Force enters this game having won three straight tilts, but wont get a Mountain West title shot, and now are out to pad their Bowl game resume against a San Jose State side just playing out the string. Air force needs a big showing, while San Jose State will most likely stand around twiddling their thumbs waiting for a new coach after 4th straight losing season. SAN JOSE ST is 0-10 ATS L/10 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points . A College Football home team like the Spartans - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games. are an ugly 5-32 ATS L/37. College Football Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Air Force- after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are a bankroll expanding 40-15 ATS L/55.A College Football home team like San Jose State - after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. is 8-37 ATS L/45. Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-16 | Arizona State +27 v. Washington | 18-44 | Win | 100 | 72 h 11 m | Show | |
Oh boy talk about a hangover. Thats what I am betting the Huskies have this week, after a hard fought and heart breaking loss to USC last week that ended their undefeated season. Now in a a emotional letdown scenario the Huskies go against a Arizona State side that has a recent history of domination in this series as is evident by a 10-0 SU/ATS L/10 record. Also the Suns Devils have only failed to cover once in their L/6 times as 12 or more point conference dogs. Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-16 | Navy v. East Carolina OVER 65 | 66-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show | |
East Carolina's defense has been atrocious all season long, and in their L/7 games 6 , have been ugly as they have given up 54,47, 38, 31, 45, and 55 points . Meanwhile, Navy has scored 46, 42, 45, 28, and 42 points in their L/6 tilts. Assuming things remain the same, another Navy output in mid 45 point range should be expected. Also considering how porous Navys D, can be at times I will not be surprised if E.Carolina which has improved offensively of late does not also put up at least 30 plus points . Expectations here, give credence to this one going over the total.
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11-19-16 | Navy -7.5 v. East Carolina | 66-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
11-19-16 | Virginia Tech +1 v. Notre Dame | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech is the superior side and even though the Irish are improving, Virginia Tech’s D unit has been a little more consistent and will be the difference maker here on the road. College football Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Vtech - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game. are 134-73 ATS for a long term 65% conversion rate on the line. NOTRE DAME is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games off 4 or more consecutive unders. Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-16 | Washington State +4.5 v. Colorado | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 36 m | Show | |
Washington State enters this game against Colorado on a 8-0 run and are a perfect 7-0 in conference play. The Cougars are in top form, not only with their offense but with a defense, that has held four different opponents to season low or 2nd low yards per game. This one has the making of a one score game, with the points being golden. WASHINGTON ST is 11-1 ATS l/12 vs. good passing teams like Colorado with a completion pct. of 58% or better and 6-0 ATS vs a side with a 62% completion rate or better, and is 8-0 ATS L/8 versus top tier offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game.WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog. Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS L/3 games at Colorado. A College Football road team like Washington State - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-9 ATS for a 80% conversion rate on the line. Take the points with Washington State 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-16 | Northwestern v. Minnesota +3 | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Minnesota's HC Claeys is 6-0 ATS L/6 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-16 | Texas Tech -3 v. Iowa State | 10-66 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
11-19-16 | Kansas State -1 v. Baylor | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
Bill Snyders Kansas State is off a bye week, which is good news for their betting backers, as they flash a 10-0 ATS record with rest over the last 5 seasons. The Wildcats need just one win to get the a Bowl and Im betting it comes today, vs a Baylor squad on a 0-3 ATS/SU skid and that is expected to start a freshman QB this week in Zach Smith. BAYLOR is 10-23 ATS L/33 in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game.BAYLOR is 1-9 ATS L10 after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 game. Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-17-16 | Arkansas State +8.5 v. Troy | 35-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 41 m | Show | |
The Troy Trojans are coming off a come from behind victory over power house Appalachian State last week, and will now be in a letdown situation this week. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is a team that has been improving as the season has continued something I projected to happen. Look for and bet on the Red Wolves making life difficult for Troy and getting us the cover. ARKANSAS ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better and is 11-2 ATS L/13 against conference opponents |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers -3 | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
The Carolina Panthers are frustrated, after losing 20-17 against KC this past Sunday, despite of a DD lead entering the last quarter of play. Now with revenge on board for a 41-38 loss to the New Orleans Saints earlier this season, and a need for redemption for last weeks ugly loss hanging over their heads, you can bet we will see Carolina at their best. NFL Favorites like the Panthers - revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are a bankroll expanding 27-6 ATS for a 82% conversion rate on the line. CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season and 18-4 ATS L/22 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game, CAROLINA is 35-11 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points and HC Riveria has covered 12 of his L/15 vs the same peremiters . Play on Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-17-16 | Louisville v. Houston +14 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show | |
Louisville came out asleep at the proverbial wheel in their last game against Wake Forest , and needed a late surge in the fourth quarter to get by the Demon Deacons. Now this week, they go against a Houston team that is perfect , 13-0 SU at home under HC Tom Herman,. I know Houston started their year out with alot of hope, and despite of a lack of enthusiasm at certain times this season, are a fine team that must be respected on their own home field. This is by far Houstons biggest game of the season, and Im betting they come out here on fire. In their L/49 home games the Cougars when above .500 on the season have never lost by more than 13 points. HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS L/7 as an underdog. Take the points with Houston 1 unit reg selection |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks +7.5 v. Patriots | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show | |
The Patriots are 7-1 with a three-game lead in the AFC East and the favorites to come out of the AFC. The Seahawks, 5-2-1 and atop the NFC West, are always a factor in the NFL race for a Super Bowl championship. Both have top tier coaches, with Belichick and Carroll. One thing for sure is, that Caroll looks at this as an opportunity for redemption after blowing a Big lead in Super Bowl 49. I expect a tight affair with the points proving to be golden. |
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11-13-16 | Dolphins v. Chargers UNDER 48.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 44 m | Show | |
Miami will come in here as visitors with an objective of slowing down the Chargers sometimes explosive offense, behind their running game via RB Ajayi. Everything the Fins do will based on eating up clock time and flow. This option could be buoyed by the Chargers new found running game behind Gordon. Smashem up old fashioned football on deck today. MIAMI is 15-5 UNDER L/20 in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points.MIAMI is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored, which happened in a 27-23 win vs th Jets last week . SAN DIEGO is 11-3 UNDER L/14 after scoring 30 points or more last game with an average of 40.8 ppg going on the scoreboard which happened in a 43-35 win vs Tennessee last time out. The last 12 meetings in this series have gone under with a combined average of 34.8 combined ppg going on the scoreboard! Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-13-16 | Chiefs +3 v. Panthers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 31 m | Show | |
The Panthers have won two games in a row since starting the season with only one victory across their first six games. Meanwhile, The Panthers (3-5) are coming off victories against Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams (3-5). But I myself still see alot of problems with Carolina's overall flow this season, espeially QB Newton, and believe that they may actually end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard this week, vs a very opportunistic KC defense that can gain control of the line of scrimmage. HC Rivera said the Panthers appeared to be a fatigued team, something he attributed to coming off the West Coast trip and this factor Im betting puts them at a disadvantage today. Note: KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game like the Panthers. Chiefs are also 10-0 ATS/U L/10 when visiting a non-divisional opponent with fewer wins. Key Injury update: [QB] 11/07/2016 - Alex Smith is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Carolina. Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-13-16 | Bears -1.5 v. Bucs | 10-36 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 11 m | Show | |
The Bears enter this game vs TB well rested after a 13-day break. Chicago saw starting quarterback Jay Cutler return for its last game, a surprise Monday night win against the Minnesota Vikings. The team after going through a rash of injuries is healing with more key bodies.The Bucs' defense has allowed a combined 1,087 yards of total offense and 73 points in the last two losses and while Chicago has not been explosive on offense this season, I expect they may have one of their best efforts of the season this Sunday, vs this swiss cheese TB defense. TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS L/14 in home games against conference opponents. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-12-16 | Minnesota +7 v. Nebraska | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
Minnesota at 7-2 is not a team that should be taken lightly. Meanwhile, after a promising start to their season, Nebraska has fallen back to earth with a thud, and have lost two straight. After last weeks embarrassing massive DD loss to Ohio State, these young men come home demoralized. Not a good spot for Nebraska this week. MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS L/10after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. Nebraksas HC Riley is 2-13 ATS L/15 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game . CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Gophers - outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are a bankroll expanding 31-8 ATS. Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-12-16 | LSU v. Arkansas +7 | 38-10 | Loss | -106 | 72 h 36 m | Show | |
Coming off a bye week, the Razorbacks put forth their vrery best effort of the season in a 31-10 beatdown of Florida , while LSU enters off a physical 10-0 battering and beating at the hands of the Crimson tide last week. One team has momentum , while the other is in a letdown situation. LSU is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons. Arkansas has won 2 straight meetings in this series.
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11-12-16 | Ohio State v. Maryland +29 | 62-3 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 31 m | Show | |
Ohio State rolled Nebraska last week, by a huge DD margin, Now after satisfying their egos, and upping their national ranking ,they may start a little slow this week against a Maryland side that has covered 4 of their L/5 as 28 or more point home dogs. You have to remember, that HC Urban Meyer and company have a Michigan State program that ruined their run for a National Championship last season, on board and will be in a look ahead situation. |
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11-12-16 | Appalachian State v. Troy | 24-28 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a big Sun Belt game, for App State (7-2) and (Troy 7-1). Big games are won with D, and nothing changes here today. Troy is offensively explosive , but this game will be won in the trenches. The Mountaineers have allowed just 16.9 ppg, (17 ppg on the road). |
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11-12-16 | Mississippi State +30 v. Alabama | 3-51 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 57 m | Show | |
Alabama is off a huge game against LSU last week and won a hard fought 10-0 defensive slugfest. These young men are beaten and battered, and will also be in an emotional let down state. Meanhile, Miss State showed their ability to hang with the big boys and took a win from Texas A&M last week. It must be noted that Miss State is 6-0 ATS in their L/6 as dogs of 23 points or more. |
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11-12-16 | West Virginia +2 v. Texas | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 58 m | Show | |
Texas for their second straight week, got by an opponent in a shoot out, allowing a combined 80 points in those two games . With that said, its become obvious to me that HC Charlie Strong defense is atrocious, and now going against a quality D, and balanced team, like West Virginia the Longhorns are in big trouble. The Mountaineers own the best defense in the Big 12, and are 70 YPG superior to the Longhorns porous D. It must be noted Charlie Strongs program has covered only 3 of 12 at home off back to back wins, and have failed to cover 5 straight under those perimeters. |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -14 | 36-49 | Loss | -102 | 40 h 36 m | Show | |
The linesmakers have installed Tennessee as big favs. It may have come as shock how big the opening line was, but it was not for me. I always like an edge if I can find one, but laying points here in this tilt is not an issue for me. It must be noted Rockytop is 30-1 SU in this series and 23-8 ATS and are 19-2 ATS L/21 when they are not favored by 17 or more points. Stoops is 10-20 ATS as an underdog as the coach of KENTUCKY losing SU by an average of 16.2 ppg. Play on the Tennesse Vols in a Blowout win- 1 unit reg selection |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State +6 | 49-26 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 27 m | Show | |
Arizona State (5-4, 2-4) has lost three games in a row and four of five as injuries ravaged the team at multiple positions and most critically at the quarterback spot, . The Sun Devils played without 10 starters in a loss a 54-35 loss at Oregon in their last game Oct. 29.Sophomore quarterback Manny Wilkins, who led the Sun Devils to 66 points over Texas Tech and 51 against California in September victories, has been in an and out of the lineup while dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries since. He was back in practice Sunday and appears set to return to the starting lineup, and will give a boost to his team this Thursday night vs a Utah side that despite of being a very competitive PAC12 opponent, but has also been inconsistent. Whittingham is 9-26 ATS L/35 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH. ARIZONA ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Graham is 9-1 ATS L/10 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of ARIZONA ST.es are 1-7 ATS as road favorites since joining the conference. The Sun Devils are also 8-3 ATS as conference home dogs and 7-3 ATS with rest. ASU is also 11-1 ATS L/12 in this series. Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-09-16 | Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 71.5 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Akron has an explosive aerial attack and Bowling Green has proved vulnerable in their secondary. Thus I expect Bowling Green will look to slow this game down by utilizing their run game, via very slow and methodical approach. The longer they stretch out the clock , the less flow the Zips offense will have. Note: Akrons run D, ranks No. 116 nationally. Akron enters this game having gone under in 5 straight games. AKRON is 14-2 UNDER in home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. .250 or less .AKRON in their L/19 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 yards/play or more ypp, have seen an average combined score of 61.8 ppg go on the coreboard. Zips HC Bowden is 15-1 UNDER L/16 after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses.Bowden is 12-1 UNDER L/13 off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival.Bowden is 11-1 UNDER L/12 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals.Bowden is 17-3 L/20 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival.( None of the combined average scores of these games have eclipsed this current number) Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-08-16 | Eastern Michigan -105 v. Ball State | 48-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
E.Michigan and Ball State are both off losses, but according to my own power rankings E.Michigan is the superior side. E.Mich has lost 3 of their L/4 but two of those games came against Western Michigan and Toledo, conference power houses and the third came against now suddenly explosive Miami O. Ball State three wins this season have come against E.Kentucky lowly Florida Atlantic and Buffalo. Note: QB Riley Neal of Ball State is less than 100% with a knee injury. He is expected to play, but will be hindered mobility wise. BALL ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 in weeks 10 through 13 dating back 3 seasons. BALL ST is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival losing SU by an average of 15 ppg. BALL ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last few seasons with the average margin of loss coming by 18.3 ppg. BALL ST has been unable to deal with lower tier secondaries as is evident by a 2-13 ATS L/15 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards. Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +2 v. Raiders | 20-30 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 38 m | Show | |
Everyone loves and underdog and side on the rise like the Oakland Raiders , especially when playing against a defending Super Bowl Champion. The Raiders , thanks to some luck and the arm of star QB Carr have been rolling. However, with expectations so high, Im actually expecting gridiron karma to catchup with the Black and Silver in the Black-hole this Sunday after winning despite of a record 23 penalties. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS L/7 off back to back away games, and 3-13 ATS off back to back wins. Meanwhile, the Broncos will be wide awake this week with the media casting the Raiders as upset candidates in this spot. Denver has won 9 straight in this series, and 18-4 ATS on the road vs the AFC West and a perfect 12-0 ATS vs above .500 or more side. |
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11-06-16 | Colts v. Packers OVER 54 | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 77 h 11 m | Show | |
The Packers offense is finally clicking on a ll cylinders, and now this week at home, they face the 29th ranked D with the Colts visiting. I know the total is high but rightly so. It must be noted that when a total is 51 or higher in a NFC non division game where the favs are playing hosts, the totals count to the over is 22-8 and are 9-1 over as 4 point or more chalk. Plus the Colts are now at near or full strentgh on offense as WRs Doresett, Moncrief, and Hilton are all back and healthy giving QB Andrew Luck a full array of talent to hit downfield. With a bye week on tap for the Colts I expect they will leave everyhting on the field. NFL road sides before their bye week are 22 -3 to the OVER when the Total is listed at 47 or more. The Colts are also 15-2 OVER in their L/17 road games up until week 12. This has also been a series that has seen some high scoring events with the L/6 meetings seeing an average of 62 ppg go on the scoreboard, Play OVER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-06-16 | Titans v. Chargers -4 | 35-43 | Win | 100 | 55 h 27 m | Show | |
The Tennessee Titans are coming off a spirited home win, but they have not dealt well with success in the past as is evident by going 1-7 ATS L/8 as an underdog off a win. The T Titans a have also lost 14 of their L/18 away games and and failed to cover 13 of them scoring an average of just 17.7 ppg in the process. Tennessee is also 0-8-1 ATS L/9 in this series and 0-5 SU/ATS at San Diego. Meanwhile, the Chargers have over -powered AFC South opponents in the past going 14-2 SU at home and 15-1 ATS. It must also be noted Tennessee has been unable to take advantage of bad defensive teams like the Chargers in the past failing to cover 17 of their L/20 opportunities if that side allowed an average of 350 plus yards per tilt. |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +4 | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
The San Francisco 49ers are desperate and looking to end a six-game straight up and against the spread losing streak Sunday afternoon when they take on Drew Brees and the surging New Orleans Saints at Levi's Stadium. New Orleans is 3-1 SU in its past four games but are only a road favorite for just the second time since Week 16 of the 2014 season. The caveat comes via the Saints , 2-9 ATS L/11 record as away chalk , and 1-8 ATS mark as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5. The Saints have also had series problems vs the 49ers failing to cover 5 straight meetings. Meanwhile, the Niners are off a bye week, and will be fresh for this tilt. Also despite of Drew Brees and company areial exploits of late, they do face a SF pass Defense, that has been in great form this season, allowing just 222 yards per game which ranks them 7th in the league. Bottom line: What Im betting happens today is that SF will take advantage of the Saints 29th ranked pass D that has allowed 286.7 ypg, and out enough points on the board to make this a scarey road adventure for the more often than not inconsistent Saints . Yes folks the Niners have the ability to keep the Saints guessing by opening the lanes up thanks to the expected addition of now healthy RB Carlos Hyde who has 6 rushing TDs so far this season in limited action. From a league wide perspective, NFL teams Underdogs or pick like SF - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are a long term good bet as is evident by a 62% ATS conversion rate using extensive sample size of 216 games. Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-06-16 | Jaguars v. Chiefs UNDER 44 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 74 h 48 m | Show | |
KC and Jacksonville go head to head this week in a tilt that I am betting stays on the low side of the number. The Chiefs are ranked 8th in D, this season allowing 19.6 ppg. Some recent unders give credence to this selection, as KC saw their games against the Raiders, Colts and Saints all stay under, teams that can light it up behind top tier QBs. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is impotent on offense, and extremely inconsistent. I expect KC will try to get up early and than ground away with their run attack and take time of the clock in chunks. This usually methodical appraoch will lead to a lower scoring affair then line might indicate. Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-06-16 | Jets +4 v. Dolphins | 23-27 | Push | 0 | 53 h 32 m | Show | |
The Jets look to be ressurected from the dead, after winning their L/2 SU/ATS. Meanwhile, the Fins are also winning and took back to back wins. However, the Fish don;t seem to deal well with success going 0-9 ATS as hosts of consecutive wins vs a division opponent coming off a victory and 0-5 ATS L/5 in this series. Finally the Jets are 22-4 ATS as divison dogs against opponents off a ATS win, which includes a sparkling 15-0 ATS mark as 3.5 or more point pups. From aleague wide NFL perspective Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are just 26-64 ATS . Play on the NY Jets to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-16 | Alabama -7 v. LSU | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 74 h 11 m | Show | |
11-05-16 | Oregon +17 v. USC | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 45 m | Show | |
11-05-16 | Memphis v. SMU +3 | 51-7 | Loss | -106 | 81 h 37 m | Show | |
11-05-16 | TCU +7.5 v. Baylor | 62-22 | Win | 100 | 91 h 55 m | Show | |
Both TCU and Baylor are off heart breaking losses, and will be primed to bounce back. Baylor now with no chance for a undefeated season may be a little deflated, and in a look ahead sandwich spot, with the mighty Oklahoma Sooners coming up next. Meanwhile, Gary Patterson HC of the Frogs is no pushover as he is 16-4 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points and has covered 7 in a row under these spread peremiters. TCU is 5-1 L/6 ATS here at Baylor and look like solid underdogs in this spot. TCU is 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Horned Frogs - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite 41-13 ATS.
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11-05-16 | Florida Atlantic +4 v. Rice | 42-25 | Win | 100 | 91 h 49 m | Show | |
Both these teams are struggling, and both I am sure look at this game as an opportunity fir a rare win. With that said look for this tilt to be hard fought , and for the points to be golden. Florida Atlantic previous to their last game, lost by 6, 5,2,4 points, so they have been very competitive. It must be noted that the invading Owls own a12-1 ATS mark as a dogs against foes off a loss, like Rice . Also all College Football Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Florida Atlantic - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less last game have bounced back in a huge way covering 24 of the L/29 times.( W.Kentucy beat Florida Atlantic 52-3 last time out) Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-16 | Syracuse +27 v. Clemson | 0-54 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
Syarcuse head coach Dino Babers is known for running an offensive system that's all about tempo, quarterback development and the passing game and nothing has changed during his tenure at Syracuse so far. Syracuse is well rested coming off an open date with a 500 record and may provide more of test for Clemson the linesmkaers may anticipate. I expect Syracuse spreads it out, and bombs away from the outset. Yes, I know Clemson is the superior side, but 27 plus points is a boatload full of digits , considering the Tigers usually do just enough to get their wins, and with an objective of staying healthy for the long run to their championship aspirtions. The Tigers have won 5 of their 7 games by 7 points or less, and have had a tenedncy to look inconsistent in the past. From a league wide perspective , College Football Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points like the Cuse- after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 25-7 ATS for a 78% conversion rate on the line.SYRACUSE is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing or less 7.5 yards per return. CLEMSON is 1-12 ATS L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games.CLEMSON is 0-7 ATS L/7 in weeks 10 through 13 dating back 3 seasons. Syracuse has won the L/2 meetings in this series SU. Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-16 | Virginia +3 v. Wake Forest | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
The Demon Deacons signal-caller Clawson is completing just 54.9 percent of his throws with just four touchdowns against seven interceptions on the season, thats not a good omen against a Virginia defense that is improving .I'm a fan of HC Mendenhall and I can see his team is getting better as his time on the sideliness progresses forward as was evident against Louisville last time out in a 32-25 loss. Virginia is 7-0 ATS L/7 on the road. Also from a league wide trends perspective - It must be noted that Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Cavaliers - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 32-12 L/44 oportunities for a 73% conversion rate. Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-16 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State UNDER 62.5 | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 0 m | Show | |
Texas a&M has gone under in 6 straight road games with ana verage of 34 ppg going on the board with only one game reaching the 47 combined point plateau. Texas AM after scoring more than 50 points in game like they did last time have come back and scored an average of 30.5 ppg in their following game with the total combined average clicking in around 51 ppg. Texas A&M has seen only 2 of their 13 games eclipse the Total. Mississippi State is 8-24-2 O/U since 2010 as a dog and 1-10-1 under as ahome dog with an average of 43.9 ppg going on the board. From a league wide perspective CFB sides- All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 like the Aggies - after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games against opponent after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 51-18.74% on the under! Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-16 | Texas v. Texas Tech +3 | 45-37 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
Im not a big fan of Charlie Strong football and it seems to me more often than not hes his own worst enemy. It also seems hes on the hot seat on a consistent basis, and despite of talent level and top tier recruiting nothing seems come easy for this Longhorns football program of late, with close losses and defeats becoming the norm. After an emotional win vs Baylor (35-34) last time out in a game the Horns were fortunate to win, after being on the wrong side of the stats sheet, they now have the tall task as being listed as favorites on the road against an explosive Texas Tech side behind QB Mahomes ( expected to play and upgraded for Saturday). HC Strong of Texas has failed to cover 13 of his L/20 after a SU/aTS win and 3-7 ATS if that team was 5-0 or better. So what Im saying here is that , not even a Matthew Mcconaughey motivational speech and heart thumping ritual song ie ( Wolf of Wall Street) will save the Horns or Strong from themselves. Play on Texas Tech to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-16 | Navy +7 v. Notre Dame | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 19 m | Show | |
Notre Dame took advantage of a emotionally downtrodden Miami Fl side last week, and took a 20-0 lead vs the Canes before showing their 2016 inconsitencies allowing 27 unanswered points . Than finally the football gods allowed them an opportunity for redemption by getting a late FG to win a ugly 30-27 event. Now Notre Dame 4-11 ATS off a win and 0-7 ATS L/7 on a neutral or home field under those peremiters situation will now take on Navys triple option offense, that has gained more than 1148 yards in their L/2 games. Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-16 | San Jose State +29.5 v. Boise State | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
Boise State perfect season is over after last weeks heart breaking loss and now a hang over is at hand, against a San Jose State team that has the ability on any given Sunday to hang with a deflated opponent. It must be noted the Broncos are just 2-17 ATS L/19 as a conference favorite of more than 15 points on the Blue Carpet and have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 in a week day game. And yes I know how bad a D, the Spartans have, but Boise State has not exactly been lights out against sides like this recently going, 0-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more pass yards per attempt . Play on San Jose State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-16 | Central Michigan -1 v. Miami (OH) | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
QB Rush has been the catalyst behind the Chippewas’ offense this season. The Charlotte Mich., native has already thrown for 2,533 yards and 21 touchdowns - he owns two 300-yard passing games and he shelled Virginia for 402 yards in September. The Chippewas enter this game 25th in the FBS in passing yards per game at 283.4 and will be Im betting be able to keep pace with a suddently explosive Miami O offense. The Chippewas’ defense is vastly under rated and some times disrepsected, but that would be a mistake, and Im betting will be the difference maker when all the chips are down. The unit is tied for second in the FBS in defensive touchdowns with four. Central Michigan’s defense has 11 interceptions (tied 13th in the nation), with nine of those coming via the secondary - Central Michigan,according to my own power rankings is the superior side and has been more consistent throughout the course of the season. Play on Central Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection LATE STEAM |
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11-03-16 | Falcons v. Bucs UNDER 51 | 43-28 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
TB enters this game with an eratic offense , that cannot be counted on to move the chains. The Bucs started their season fast and furious, with a 31-24 win vs the Falcons on the road. But now TB have a banged up offensive lineup and young quarterback Jameis Winston is starting to teeter . Doug Martin and Charles Sims, the team's top two running backs, are also injured as is No. 2 receiver Vincent Jackson, and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins,, has since been arrested on a DUI charge and waived. Needless to say the Bucs offense is a mess. I also expect the Bucs do everything to shore up their nasty D, and because of the offensive problems turn a conservative mode of moving the chains, as large chunks of time come of the clock. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan on short rest, and in an emotional letdowns scenario after last weeks 33-32 shootout win vs the Packers, to start slower than expected, which will result in a lower offensive output than the pundits might expect. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER L/6 vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game.ATLANTA is 13-0 UNDER L/13 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play. Tampa Bays last 19 home games have seen a average combined score of 44.3 ppg go on the scoreboard. Any NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 - versus division opponents has seen 80 of the L/126 stay under for a 64% conversion rate. Also Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 like the Falcons - versus division opponents, off a home win have gone under 30 of the the L/35 times for a 86% conversion rate . Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 97 h 36 m | Show | |
Although the Vikings defense appears to have a decisive edge against the Bears offense, the same does not hold true on the opposite side of the ball. Minnesota is No. 31 in total offense with 299.2 yards per game, and Chicago is No. 12 in total defense with 350.4 yards allowed per game. According to my own data this game should me much closerthan the linesmakers estimate, and I will not be surprised if the Bad News Bears, give causaul NFL watchers some surprising headlines come Tuesday morning. The Vikings are 8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game.CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS L/6 after 3 or more consecutive losses. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 43 | 23-29 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 36 m | Show | |
These two teams have two of the better Ds, in the NFL at the moment. (Philly allows only 14.7 ppg with the Boyz D allows 17.8 ppg. The host Cowboys come in off their Bye Week with a current 5-game winning streak. whch sets into motion a long term trend that has seen these type of teams go under 8 straight times since 2010: It shows that All NFL home teams off their BYE WEEK... and a 3-game-or-more winning streak (Cowboys). are 0-8 under. These teams have averaged also only ombined for just 29.9 ppg . And finally Game 8 division matchups have seen only 15 of 48 l/48 tilts eclipse the total. From a league wide NFL data base it must be noted that Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 point like the Cowboys - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season have seen 54- of 77 games stay under for a 70% conversion rate. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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10-30-16 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | 32-33 | Win | 101 | 69 h 48 m | Show | |
Green Bay Packers Aaron Rogers broke the 300 yard plaeau last time out after 15 straight games and looks to be back in tune ,The Packers offense piled up 406 yards and controlling the ball for almost 40 minutes against Chicago.Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense ranks 27th in scoring, 26th in yards allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed.Matt Ryan has failed to cover 5 straight vs NFC North opponents. Last year HC Quinn and company started out 5-0 before finsihing 3-8 run and after back to back losses it loooks like the Falcons are headed in that direction again. after a 4-1 start .ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite. Play on the Green Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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10-30-16 | Raiders v. Bucs UNDER 49.5 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
We are looking at a Total that takes into consideration a Raiders defense that ranks last in the NFL in total defense and passing defense. However, what must also be considered from my perspective at least is the Bucs very inconsistent offense , that has scored an average of 19 ppg at home this season, and had two seperate 7 points outputs. Oakland is working hard on correcting their defensive defecincies, and TB knowing the Raiders explosiveness will try to slow this games flow down . This combination , I am betting will help keep this combined score on the low side of the Totals number. |
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10-30-16 | New Mexico +3.5 v. Hawaii | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 83 h 4 m | Show | |
Hawaii has put alot of air miles on their bodies so far this season, and after pulling off the upset of Air force last week come home on tired legs and in a letdown scenario. Meanwhile, New Mexico owns the No.1 rush offense in the country that allows opposing run offenses to cruise to 259 ypg . New Mexico gets the nod. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW MEXICO) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 30-8 ATS L/38 opportunities.NEW MEXICO is 20-8 ATS ( in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play. HAWAII is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games after playing 2 straight conference games. HAWAII is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest. New Mexico has won 6 straight meetings in this series and 3-0 L/3 visits to Hawaii. New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection |