Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-23 | Texas v. Houston +23.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show | |
Texas after a loss to Oklahoma last time out, enter into this frey with extra rest . Im sure the Longhorns are still however in a letdown mode after that heart breaking loss, and that could easily hamper them against an explosive opponent that has lots of back door capabilities. TEXAS is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. TEXAS is also 0-4 ATS L/4 after taking on the Sooners. TEXAS is 1-5 ATS L/6 off a rest/ bye week. Sarkisian is 4-13 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 in all games he has coached since 1992. TEXAS has also failed to cover as away favs of more than 12 points in 6 of their L/7 opportunities. , Houston is 8-0 ATS L/8 as dogs of more than 13 points. Play on Houston to cover |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -4.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show | |
Ohio State has won six straight in the series and 10 of the past 11. Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-8 vs. the Buckeyes and has lost all four games in Ohio Stadium by an average of more than 11 ppg. Penn State has not won in Columbus since 2011 and Im betting they wont turn the trick here this week.More importantly I project a TD or more win by the home side. PENN ST is 3-19 ATS L/21 vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game. Note:The Buckeyes' pass defense is fourth (154.3) in the country. The defense is third in average points allowed (9.7) and seventh in total defense (263.5). PENN ST is 7-19 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game. Day is 12-2 ATS in October games as the coach of OHIO ST. .CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or better ) are 41-4 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in +13.7. CFB home team vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for a average ppg diff of +13.3 clicking in. Play on the Ohio State to cover |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 40.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
The Totals line (41.5) was attacked right out of the gate and for good reasons. After sinking in the hjigh 30s it was attacked again to the upside, and thats where we enter into the frey. It must be noted that New Orleans’ last 16 NFL games have seen 15 of them stay under the total ... with a combined average of only 31.5 combined ppg scored ! Considering their recent difficulties scoring it wont be a hard decision to estimate that the Saints points production will be muted against a up-trending Jaguars D. In the flipside the Saints D has only allowed more than 20 points one time this season, so the Jags inconsistent attack should also have problems producing points. Allen in 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored. .NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER in the first half of the season this season with a combined average of 34.2 ppg scored. NFL THURSDAY games with a Totals Line of 40.0 or less points have gone under 10 of the last 11 times in non division tilts. Also Thursday night games have seen Jacksonville go under in their L/4 dating back 5 seasons, while the Saints have gone under in 11 of their L/12 Thursday contests dating back 10 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average passing teams (5.9-6.7 PYA). 70-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +4.5 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 57 m | Show | |
Marshall lost their 2nd straight game at Georgia State this past Saturday after starting their season at 4-0.Meanwhile James Madison continued their undefeated run at 6-0 with a huge DD win vs Georgia Southern last time out . According to my power rankings despite the slight discrepancy in records -both these sides are evenly matched, with home field advantage favoring a Marshall side that is 3-0 at home this season, and long term have cashed 60% of their L/30 home games as underdogs dating back to 2002 season. Overall Marshall has 22-8 L/30 SU at home and have won 5 straight dating back to last season as hosts including a win vs Sunbelt perennial App State. Advantage Marshall CFB home team vs. the money line (MARSHALL) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% or ,more ) playing a team with a winning record are 36-6 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 30-9 ATS L/31 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Marshall to cover |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State v. UTEP +3.5 | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
Mew Mexico State according to my projections are precarious road favs here at UTEP considering they are just. 3-17 SU in their last 20 games on the road. I know the Aggies (4-3) are getting alot of accolades this season, and have a top tier QB under center Pavia has a QB rating of 166.9, ranking second in CUSA and 18th in FBS., but it must be noted that Opponents are averaging 204.7 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of just 89.4 when facing UTEP. The Miners ,must not be underestimated and have momentum on their sides after a road win at Florida International last week. One key feature to UTEP is in their special teams department with their punter Sloan who registered a 64 yard punt last week, and has the ability to quickly flip field position in favor of his team. Note:UTEP is 8-1 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. UTEP is 3-0 in Wednesday regular-season contests and Im betting has a great opportunity to repeat in this spot play vs a visitor that does not have a history of respectable road performances. Play on UTEP to cover |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -1 v. Chargers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
The Cowboys were thoroughly embarrassed last week on national tv in prime time vs the SF 49ers, by a 42-10 count and will now be primed for a big bounce back performance. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed and you can bet this talented and egotistical but sometimes in cohesive Cowboys group is now fully focused . Note DALLAS is 12-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 9-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 season. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasonsDALLAS is 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 season.DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Chargers have looked at average at best this season, with the pass /d, looking very unstable. Note:McCarthy is 7-0 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS. NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after allowing 40 points or more last game are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers UNDER 51 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
After allowing 42 points last week on national tv vs the 49ers the Cowboys will be primed to bounce back defensively this week with what Im betting will be a chip on their shoulders. Quote: "I'm pretty sure (Moore) wants to go out there and put it on us, but you've got to put on some perspective for what we just went through on Sunday and how we're champing at the bit to get out there and get out next game, on the road, so we can kind of just get this taste out of our mouths," Dallas safety Jayron Kearse said. "We just went out there (against the 49ers) and had an all-time stinker for what this defense is about, and we're ready to go out there and play against somebody as well. So I'm pretty sure he's ready for it and we're ready for it as well." DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34.5 ppg going on the board. Dallas has gone under in 6 of their L/7 vs AFC West. Chargers have gone under in 12 of their L/15 as home dogs of 4 point or less. NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 62-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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10-15-23 | Giants +15.5 v. Bills | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show | |
The reason for this rocketing off the opening line is because New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones will not play Sunday night against the Buffalo Bills because of a neck injury. However according to my power rankings this kine of line shift is still unjustified and over doen to extent giving us value with the underdog. Veteran backup Tyrod Taylor, who spent three seasons with the Bills, will start for New York and instead of being a hinderance could actually be a breath of fresh air for a stumbling banged up side. The Bills win but by not as much as the linesmakers might anticpate. We have already had sharp money beat back the line from a high of +16. NFL .600 or better sides returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss like the Bills, are 0-5 SUATS all-time. Bills are off a loss to the Jaguars in London last week. NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992 in games played in Buffalo. NFL Home teams (BUFFALO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 18-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 15-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Giants to cover |
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10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | 17-21 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 48 m | Show | |
These two teams have inefficient offenses and solid defenses and Im expect a very close game, but the desperate Patriots Im betting have the edge on this type of line offering. With owner Kraft ready to fire Bill Belichick Im looking for the old ball coach to craft some magic here today. Raiders are just 2-11 ATS L/13 vs AFC East. NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a home favorite are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Patriots to cover |
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10-15-23 | 49ers v. Browns +8.5 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 69 h 28 m | Show | |
SF 49ers QB Brock Purdy are getting alot of headlines , especially after destroying the Dallas Cowboys on national TV this past Sunday. However, Im betting Purdy will be in a regressionary mode this week after that explosion vs the Cowboys as he goes against NO .1 defense in the NFL ( Cleveland Browns) that has the physicality to deal with the 49ers . With that said Im betting on a much closer game than the lines-makers public line is estimating. CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season. Cleveland 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series dating back to 1992. NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Browns to cover |
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10-15-23 | Colts +4 v. Jaguars | 20-37 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 10 m | Show | |
.After a two week stint in the Uk Im betting the Jags are slow out of the gate as they get acclimated to home cooking again. Home sweet home, is not so sweet for the Jaguars when Trevor Lawrence is the QB as is evident by a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS record as a home favorite . On the flip-side with under rated QB Gardner Minshew back behind center, for the Colts Im expecting them to be ready to continue to heat up on offense. Minshew completed 19 of 23 passes for 171 yards along with recording a positive passer rating of 112.1 in his only start this season and is more than capable of lighting up this inconsistent Jags secondary. Jacksonville is just 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game (which they were). Play on Indy Colts to cover |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14 v. Dolphins | 21-42 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 58 m | Show | |
Carolina is off a crap performance last time out in a 42-24 loss to the Lions, but have proven resilient in the past . CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS L/13 after allowing 40 points or more last game . I know Miami has proven themselves to be dynamic on offense so far this season, but will now play without injured star RB Devon Achane , who had 7 TDS in his first 4 games. I also know QB Bryce Young has not looked good out of the gate this season, but the kid is still learning the ropes and is more than capable of a big game. NFL Favorites (MIAMI) - with an excellent offense - averaging 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina to cover |
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10-15-23 | Panthers v. Dolphins UNDER 47.5 | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show | |
Im betting Carolinas game plan is to really slow this game down, by running the ball a great deal while taking their time with snaps. The Panthers D, has really been beat up on of late and Im sure a concerted effort to defend aggressively was the mantra in practice this week. /note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.8 ppg scored. Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins attack will not be as potent as usual as they deal with the injury to key RB RB Devon Achane who has 7 TDs in his first 4 games. This missing cog for the Fins makes them more one dimensional offense and easier to read. Advantage to the under NFL non-division home favorites of 8 or more points like Miami is here today have seen 19 of 22 tilts stay on the low side of the Total when the offered number is 45 or more points. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the under |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals -3 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Cincinnati looked good against the Arizona Cardinals last time out and are gaining momentum entering this tilt against the visiting Seahawks. Trends also back the the Bengals as they own a 7-0 ATS record when coming off a SU away chalk victory and are , 12-1 ATS in tilts when both teams are coming off a win, Meanwhile the Seahawks are just 1-10 ATS in games after allowing 7 or fewer points last time out . CINCINNATI is 12-1 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. With QB Joe Burrow looking close to 100% after a right calf strain, Im betting the Bengal's are the right side. Burrow looked mobile and completed 36 of 46 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. I know Seattle has really been tough on opponents run against allowing just 3.18 ypc, and the Bengals have struggled running the ball but CINCINNATI is 15-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games . CINCINNATI is 15-3 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.CNCINNATI is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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10-15-23 | Saints -1.5 v. Texans | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
Houston (2-3) managed just one touchdown and settled for four field goals in a 21-19 road loss to Atlanta in Week 5 and I truly did not like the way they looked in that tilt especially when trying to finish drives. Meanwhile, the Saints had season highs of 42 rushes and 136 yards on the ground against New England Pats and won 34-0. That type of game plan Im sure is on the agenda again and according to my power rankings gives the visitor a significant edge on what is is essentially a pickem line. NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS in road games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game which was the case last time out. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9. ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the New Orleans Saints to win |
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10-14-23 | Miami-FL +4 v. North Carolina | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 25 m | Show | |
Miami enters this game with a 4-1 record after a loss last week to Georgia Tech, while Carolina enters at 5-0. The Canes may have fell asleep at the proverbial wheel looking forward to this game , but now Im betting they will be wide awake here vs the Heels and ready to perform. North Carolina is 1-14 ATS when coming off a conference home tilt, including 0-9 ATS as the favorite. N CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival since 1992. Brown is 1-11 ATS off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of N CAROLINA. CFB road team (MIAMI) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 32-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Miami FL to cover |
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10-14-23 | USC v. Notre Dame -2.5 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
Notre Dame after a ugly effort vs a fired up Louisville Cardinal last week will be primed to get back on track vs a Trojans side that is exhibiting some weak defensive deficiencies as is evident by allowing 41 points in back to back games. What happened last week in Louisville the Irish I think was attributed to them not being able to meet the motivation factors needed after their heart breaking 17-14 loss to Ohio State the week before. USC is 5-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons NOTRE DAME is 15-4 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992. USC is 1-11 ATS in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite since 1992. USC is 1-14 ATS versus non-conference revenge, and a nasty 2-15 ATS as pups of less than 8 points and a just 2-12 ATS in non-conference road tilts. Notre Dame to cover |
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10-14-23 | Kansas State +2 v. Texas Tech | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
The Wildcats were upset last week in Stillwater against Oklahoma State but will now in a big bounce back situation vs Texas Tech this week. I know Texas Tech is off a big win last time out vs Baylor . Note:. K-State is 11-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS defeat. and 11-1 ATS following a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, .Texas Tech is 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in the last six meetings of this series and are fade material vs what my own power ranking suggest is the superior side. Also the Wildcats will be coming into the game with a little extra rest and their energy levels will be high as thyey look for redemption. Play on Kansas State |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 74 h 60 m | Show | |
Louisville is in a huge emotional letdown situation after smashing Notre Dame last week in all out effort. Needless to say they are vulnerable here on the road in Pittsburgh this week, against a sub par side that still however boasts the best run defense in the nation and must not be underestimated. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Pittsburgh 7-2 ATS L/9 in this series vs the Cardinal. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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10-14-23 | BYU v. TCU OVER 52 | 11-44 | Win | 100 | 34 h 24 m | Show | |
Two old Mountain West rivals go head to head today in what Im betting will be a back and forth affair. BYU is fresh off a bye week, and Im betting their top tier offense will be ready and fresh for TCU sometimes viable D. The Cougars were said to have worked on their running game with the extra prep time, and if they have made advancement it will make their already viable passing game even more tangible. Meanwhile,TCU would be all but eliminated from the Big 12 race with a loss today, so you can bet they will also be primed to perform in aggressive fashion. BYU has averaged 32.5 ppg in offense on the road while allowing 34.5 ppg. Meanwhile TCU 34.5 ppg in offense at home. Injury update:BYU wide receivers Kody Epps and Parker Kingston will play for the Cougars against TCU. Epps was one of BYU's top wide receivers in 2022. CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TCU) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 64-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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10-14-23 | Indiana v. Michigan UNDER 46 | 7-52 | Loss | -109 | 41 h 19 m | Show | |
MICHIGAN is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons |
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10-13-23 | Tulane v. Memphis +5 | 31-21 | Loss | -111 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
Memphis lost a 38-28 decision on the road to Tulane last season and now have revenge on board for what is a must win situation tonight at home since the Tigers will play 4 of their L/6 games on the road after tonight. The Tigers only loss this season came by a TD deficit vs Missouri and they must not be underestimated in their abilities. It must be noted Memphis is 8-1 ATS L/9 at home as a underdog. Memphis is 10-1 SU at home in this series L/11 meetings. CFB Home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%)or more playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis Tigers to cover |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
We expecting sustained heavy winds tonight in KC, which Im betting hampers these offenses. Add to that the below applicable trends Reid is 13-1 UNDER in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average 35.9 ppg. Reid is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 35.3 ppg.Reid is 15-4 UNDER in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.Reid is 15-4 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. Payton is 12-3 UNDER when playing on a Thursday in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992 with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 37-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored are 37-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
West Virginia is on a nice 4-0 ATS run but it must be noted they lost the stats battles in their last 2 wins both as underdogs and are being over rated here tonight vs what can be an explosive offensive foe in Houston. Note:CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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10-11-23 | UTEP v. Florida International -2 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Florida International has revenge on board for a ugly 40-6 road loss last season to UTEP and Im betting they will be prepared to get pay back here tonight. Florida International have proved they have improved this season already notching 3 wins vs , Uconn , N.Texas and Maine. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 straight up against UTEP since 1992 at home. Utep has lost 4 straight snd are winless in their L/ 5 tries against FBS teams, also going 0-5 against the spread (ATS). UTEP is winless in 3 road tilts this season, losing the last 2 games by 21 or more points. UTEP has lost 11 of their L/12 road games. UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.UTEP is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 season. Play on FIU to cover |
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10-10-23 | Liberty v. Jacksonville State OVER 56.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Liberty has averaged 36.8 ppg per game on offense this season, and 46.5 ppg on the road in two tilts. Meanwhile Jacksonville State has averaged 30.5 ppg on offense and Im betting they will have to open up here against a Liberty side that can put points on the board in bunches against the best of defenses. It must be noted that Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez is well respected for his offensive prowess throughout his career and Im betting he formulates an aggressive effort here in this tilt. I know some of the current team trends might have many leaning to the under, but Im not one of them. CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (LIBERTY/Jacksonville St) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in conference games are 36-8 OVER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 70.7 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (JACKSONVILLE ST) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 22-3 OVER L/31 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 68.6 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 31 m | Show | |
The pundits and media love how well RB Christian Mcaffery has played so far for the 49ers. But it must be noted that the Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433. Also the Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 5% of opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%. So as this game goes on Im betting on the Cowboys to be hard to score on in what Im aslo betting will be a very competitive affair with the points being golden in the end. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 16-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 3-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. McCarthy is 13-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached since 1992 NFL Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Cowboys are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 59 m | Show | |
The Eagles are being over rated here today against the Rams. In the Phillies first game of the season, they were out gained handily by the Patriots and still found a way to win, and three of their victories were all one score decisions, including last weeks OT winner. Meanwhile, on the flipside the Rams have registered better offensive and defensive numbers than the Eagles, to this point in the campaign and must be respected here getting points on their own home field. PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.The Eagles have lost 16 of their 25 SU vs NFC West.
NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 38 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 12 m | Show | |
10-08-23 | Texans +2 v. Falcons | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 89 h 23 m | Show | |
We have an early season, QB alert on board as the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is playing a top tier brand of football under center Entering this game he is off a 280 yard and two touchdown performance last week in a 30-6 thumping of the Pittsburgh Steelers . It must be noted that he is the first QB in league history to average 300 passing yards in the first tilts of the campaign and has given up no interceptions so far . The same cannot be said, about Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder who has seen his team score just 6 and 7 points in their last two trips to the gridiron including last weeks London England loss to the Jags. Now coming off a trip across the pond Im betting the Falcons will be a bit jet lagged and for the offense to continue to plummet. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS L/7 non division games. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texans to cover |
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10-08-23 | Giants +11.5 v. Dolphins | 16-31 | Loss | -112 | 89 h 57 m | Show | |
Giants have been embarrassed a couple times already this season, and are off a ugly home loss on Monday night vs Seattle. It must be noted however, that the Gmen are 6-0 ATS L/6 after a MNF battle. With Miami now hot with a reality blow last week to their egos vs the Bills, Im betting it will be hard for the Fins to get motivated and up off the matt vs a side that hardly brings respect with them. NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. MIAMI is 1-9 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (NY GIANTS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the Giants to cover |
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10-08-23 | Panthers +10 v. Lions | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 53 m | Show | |
I know the Panthers have not won this season, but they held two of their four opponents to season-low yardage and must not be underestimated in this ability to be competitive vs the Lions today. Note: Reich is 15-3 ATS L/18 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in all games he has coached in his career. Carolina is 16-8 ATS L/24 as underdogs against the NFC North . Detroit is 1-6 ATS L/7 as non division home favs of 3 points or more. Carolina is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. NFL home favorites (DETROIT) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina to cover |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers +4 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 89 h 41 m | Show | |
After last weeks embarrassing loss to the Texans Im betting on a huge rebound here today against the Ravens by a 30-6 count. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and believe or not the culture of grit still remains in the Steel City. PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS in home games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. The last 4 meetings in this series has seen the Steelers win 3 of those games with all of the tilts being low scoring physical grinders with each game decided by 3 points or less . Im betting nothing changes today. BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Steelers to cover |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame -6 v. Louisville | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 55 m | Show | |
.I know Louisville is getting alot of accolades this season, but the harsh truth is they are a level or two below the visiting Irish. Louisville in my opinion is not a national contender while Notre Dame is this season which was obvious in how they handled Ohio State, despite of their last second loss. Just one thing, I must mention and that is Im not bashing the Cardinal they are a fine looking speedy team, but the Irish are just a superior side. Also it must be noted that the Cardinal are 1-3 in the stats battles against FBS sides despite of being 5-0 this season. Cards passing D, is also allowing an average 7.4 YPP, which is not a good omen against a arm like QB Hartman and his accomplished WRs. The Fighting Irish have owned the ACC in the recent past from a betting perspective going a perfect 10-0 SUATS L/10 and are 6-0 SUATS with HC Marcus Freeman on the sidelines with the average winning ppg diff clicking in at +19.5 PPG. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here and for the Iriish to come out of this with a conclusive victory and more importantly a cover. CFB home team (LOUISVILLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Notre Dame to cover |
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10-07-23 | Old Dominion v. Southern Miss -125 | 17-13 | Loss | -125 | 123 h 55 m | Show | |
Both these sides have had problems early this season and both are at 1-3 overall.Ole Dominion has over achieved when looking at their positive point spread work, while Southern Miss has failed to live up to some experts projections. Both are obviously desperate for a win, but when looking at my power rankings its obvious to me the home side has the slight edge based on some factors that may not come across in the msm sports media statistical analysis. After two back and forth tilts that Old Dominion lost but covered will now be in a huge letdown situation with this being their 2nd straight road tilt. With a big game against App State up next I expect Old Dominion to be in a vulnerable spot . OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS L/12 after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more . CFB road team vs. the money line (OLD DOMINION) - terrible ball control team, 28 or less minutes TOP, 16 or less first downs per game, after being controlled in time of possession 3 straight games( 27 or less min) are 1-25 L/26 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (OLD DOMINION) - after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 1-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 96% go against conversion rate. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (SOUTHERN MISS) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 30-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate! Play on Southern Miss to cover |
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
The Cougars star junior quarterback Cam Ward is really something to watch and must be respected . He has 14 TDs and no interceptions and leads the nations 2nd best offensive passing attack. The Cougars a team averaging 45 points per game, and are live dogs here in my betting opinion vs a UCLA side that does not look as fluid or a consistent as the Cougars. Note: Kelly is 4-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of UCLA . Advantage Washington State Washington States football program is 17-0 ATS L/17 in games following a SU underdog victory . CFB home team (UCLA) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games are 6-26 L/30 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. CFB toad underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 35-12 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington State to cover |
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10-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Buffalo +3 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 69 h 39 m | Show | |
Buffalo has momentum after garnering a road win in OT last time out at Akron. BUFFALO is 16-6 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival. Meanwhile, Central Michigan despite of a 3-2 record this season, has been far from dominant with all 3 of their wins ending in 4 point or less margin differentials. Considering the Chips are 0-7 ATS L/7 as favs vs sub .500 sides like the Bulls it will not be a difficult proposition for me to take points here with the home side. C MICHIGAN is also just 1-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +6.5 v. Texas | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 68 h 38 m | Show | |
Last season the Longhorns smashed the the Sooners by a 49-0 count and now Oklahoma has big time revenge on board. It must be noted 5-0 teams like Texas going against an avenging foe are just 23-43-2 ATS since 1980. Texas is also 0-9 ATS L/9 on the road vs conference side with revenge like the Sooners. The Longhorns are 1-5 SU all time when in. a battle of undefeated teams. TEXAS is 9-22 ATS L/31 in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. According to my projections these teams are evenly matched thus getting this many points is a blessing in disguise. I know Mathew McConaughey might disagree but Im sticking to my guns here and taking the points with the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl today. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma to cover |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska v. Illinois -3 | 20-7 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
Everyone and his dog now is up an arms against the viability of this Illinois team after a gutless effort against Purdue last time out in a ugly 44-10 loss as road chalk. HC Bret Bielema is now officially on the hot seat after being the darling of the Illinois fan base coming to this season. I know alot of ppl have lost faith in Illini, but Im going to actually back them against a Nebraska program that just cant get over the hump and maybe even more lacking in the respect category. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are just 42-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +22.5 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (NEBRASKA) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-62 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate with the qverqge ppg diff clicking in at -19.9 which easily qualifies in this ATS offering. Play on Illinois to cover |
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10-05-23 | Bears +7 v. Commanders | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 59 m | Show | |
Washingtons issues right now are on defense where they have allowed 33, 37, 34 points in their L/3 games. Also the Commanders are now in an emotional letdown spot after playing all out football against the Eagles last time out before eventually losing in OT. I know the bad news Bears are really reeling, but after a 0-4 start will desperate for a win and in desperation mode have an edge vs a vulnerable Commanders side . WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, in the first half of the season are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-24 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Bears to cover |
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10-04-23 | Florida International v. New Mexico State OVER 49.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show | |
My projections estimate a combined score that will be in low to mid 50s, making this Totals offer vulnerable .New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI) New Mexico State solid run game should really pile up the yards against an FIU defense that ranks 98th in Stuff Rate and 53rd in Defensive Rushing Plays Explosiveness. The Aggies coming in to their last game at Hawaii were averaging 33 points per game and 4.1 Points per Opportunity , but very high winds gave their offense some problems in that tilt, but here this week back at home should be ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Panthers have recorded one-score victories over Maine, North Texas, and UConn and must not be under estimated in their ability to fire back offensively here on the road in Las Cruces. I know these teams have played a slow pace so far, but Im betting the Aggies ability to put points on the board via their run game will force the FIU to up the tempo and for total to be eclipsed. CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 35-9 OVER L/30 season's for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +1.5 | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
The Giants need a won here desperately as after tonight's game they go against, Dolphins and Bills in successive weeks. I know NYG has a some issues with key NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS L/23 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Carroll is 15-25 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of SEATTLE NFL Underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - terrible passing team (5.3 or less PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense (7.3 or more PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 23-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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10-01-23 | Raiders +5.5 v. Chargers | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 17 m | Show | |
Raiders QB Garoppolo may not start this week, but one thing is for sure he is not performing optimally right now and if hes replaced I dont believe the it will be a difference maker. Despite of this QB situation with Vegas, I do believe they matchup well here overall vs a San Diego Chargers side that played hard last week in Minnesota for their first win of the season, and is now in an emotional letdown situation . Chargers QB Herbert finished 40-of-47 for a career-high 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, but now regression must be expected. Bottom line : Considering the QB situation for Vegas I expect star RB Jacobs who rushed for a league-leading 1,653 yards and scored 12 touchdowns last season, averaging 4.9 yards a carry to be key here in keeping the Raiders on the edge of victory today. It must be noted that the Chargers have looked sub par on on defense this season, ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense (450.7 ypg allowed) and 32nd in passing defense (337.0 ypg allowed). So even if Hoyer or the rookie Aidan O'Connell starts the Chargers sub par secondary should seal their fate with Jacobs setting up the pass with his legs. A CHARGERS are 14-28 ATS (L/42 in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game. NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Raiders to cover |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -2.5 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 138 h 1 m | Show | |
10-01-23 | Commanders +8 v. Eagles | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 19 m | Show | |
Philadelphia got blasted last season in embarrassing fashion in a Monday Night home loss as double-digit favs to the Commanders last season and now want revenge. However, like Mick Jagger of the iconic Rolling stones likes to say ' you don't always get what you want. With that said, Im betting on another gritty performance from a never say die group of commodores in what will be a much closer game the the lines-makers are estimating. Washington HC Rivera is 21-9 ATS L/30 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached. NFL team (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 47-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans +2.5 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 89 h 8 m | Show | |
Bengals are on short rest after a grinding and physical battle on Monday night vs the Rams, and are not 100% at the quarter back position with Joe Burrows playing banged up with a bad ankle. Here against a very strong defensive Titans front the Bengals Im betting have a hard time being consistent offensively. Advantage Titans. TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 6-21 L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -4 v. Panthers | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 31 m | Show | |
Carolina despite of a top tier offense, are now in desperation mode as they search for their first victory of the season . Their issues have come mostly because of turnovers , but that should rectify itself as the season progresses. Luckily for the Vikes they take on a 0-3 Carolina side that is less talented and even more inept as is evident by -9 ppg diff on the season. Im betting on quarterback Kirk Cousins, who enters Week 4 with a league-leading 1,075 passing yards to really light things up here this Sunday as the Vikings come away with a convincing victory. CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS n home games vs. sub par punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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10-01-23 | Rams +1 v. Colts | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
The Colts offense is less than spectacular and that corresponds to QB Gardner Minshew’s record of 2-10 SU in his L/12 trips to the gridiron. I know the Indy thanks to some strong D and fine FG kicking found a way past the Ravens last week for their 2nd straight win , but it must be noted that the Colts despite of their decent run have been outgained in each of their games this season. . It must also be noted that the Colts are 0-8-1 ATS at home when coming off consecutive SUATS victories, . Add to that Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against opposition coming off a SU underdog victory. I like the Rams coaching their overall team chemistry especially Stafford at QB and feel strongly they come out of here with a cover this Sunday. NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 34-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 72 h 22 m | Show | |
After allowing 37 points in. a loss vs Houston last week you can bet this Jacksonville coaching staff went to work here to motivate their embarrassed players into having a much better and concentrated effort this Sunday. It must also be noted that after scoring just nine points in a 17-9 loss to Kansas City, Jacksonville failed to score in the first half last week and its obvious their offense is just not clicking . Thats evident by quarterback Trevor Lawrences one touchdown pass record in his last two games. Here against a Flacons side, that have been solid defensively I just cant see things getting much better from a production standpoint. On the flipside the Flacons depend greatly on their ground attack to keep the pressure of their young QB Ridder who is in his 2nd season. With that said, Im betting on alot of clock being eaten up here by the Falcons via the run game and for a much better effort from Jacksonville defensively to help us stay under the number here this week in London. Jacksonville is 10-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. Games played at WEMBLEY STADIUM have gone a perfect 6-0 UNDER in the last L/5 seasons, with an average of only 35.3 combined PPG going up on the scoreboard. Play on the under |
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10-01-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Jaguars | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence, has just one touchdown pass in the last two games and its obvious this team is in a funk, and according to my power rankings fade material in this current form vs a solid Falcons D. Here in a game against and Atlanta side built to run the ball, Im betting a grinding clock will keep the Jags out of tempo on offense and cause more problems for them. What Im saying is this is not a good matchup for the Jags. Note:JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS against NFC South division opponents since 1992 and is 1-9 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta owns a 2-0 ATS record in the international series and have covered their L/ 6 ATS vs the Jags. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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09-30-23 | East Carolina v. Rice -145 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 3 m | Show | |
Rice lost last week 42-29 to South Florida but QB JT Daniels threw for 491 of the Owls’ 492 total yards and is a dangerous man under center. Considering E.Carolinas D was sliced and diced by all three FBS sides they played this season, for 30,31, 43 points respectively including giving up a whopping 702 combined yards passing in those games, Im betting Rices star QB rockn rolls his team to victory here at home. Bloomgren is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of RICE. RICE is 26-10 ATS in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). RICE is 17-4 ATS L/21 in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (RICE) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Rice to win |
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09-30-23 | Ball State v. Western Michigan | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 127 h 33 m | Show | |
Im betting Western Michigans Jalen Buckley, who has registered 4 TDS already this season while averaging 125 YPG will be key to the Broncos finding the win column. Considering Ball State just cant move the ball inconsistently and constantly making bad reads on offense as is evident by a 5 interceptions and just 3 TDs. Ball State is losing the stats battles an average of 172 YPG including allowing a whopping 40 or more points in their 3 ugly losses. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (BALL ST) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-60 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Western Michigan |
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09-30-23 | Houston v. Texas Tech -8 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 80 h 58 m | Show | |
Texas Tech lost West Virginia last time out on the road by a 20-14 count and will now be in bounce back mode at home here today. The Raiders are just 1-3 this season, but in a specific outing against top 10 Oregon they looked like they matched up well and only lost by a 38-30 count and must be respected here against a defensively deficient Houston side that has already lost to Rice and TCU while allowing 43 and 36 points respectively. TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.7 . CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Texas Tech) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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09-30-23 | South Florida v. Navy -3 | 44-30 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 10 m | Show | |
South Floridas offensive line is horrendous already allowing 19 sacks and that will be their downfall today vs a physical Navy front 7. On the flip-side the Middies Im betting will plough through the Bulls defense via their vaunted one way ground attack. Also after a extra week of rest and now playing at home Im betting we see Navy at their very best.
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09-30-23 | UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota -12 | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 4 m | Show | |
Blowing a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a Northwestern program that was on the ropes is arguably the worst loss of head coach P.J. Fleck's time in Minnesota. This kind of embarrassing loss will have Fleck prepared to coach a big game against a lower tier side. Getting off the hot seat is of prime importance and getting the Gopher fans to lay down their pitchforks I believe Fleck has the personnel to get it done this week in convincing fashion after last weeks gutless sleepy effort. Note: UL Lafayette has allowed an average of 36 ppg so far this season in what looks to be a wide open type of game plan. Im betting that wont work well against this power 5 opponent. LA LAFAYETTE is 0-9 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (they beat Mac side Buffalo last week in a 45-38 shootout) Regression expected. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Minnesota ) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-30-23 | Penn State -27 v. Northwestern | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 68 h 6 m | Show | |
Penn State is the real deal and in my opinion a true national contender, and my thought s were reinforced after watching them slam dunk Iowa 31-0. With that said, Im betting they will be wide awake here knowing their opponent Northwestern came back form a 31-10 deficit in the 4th quarter last time out for a miraculous 34-31 win vs Minnesota. From a talent and coaching perspective this line does not do the discrepancies justice, and laying this may points is not a problem for me. Note: Penn State when coming off consecutive SUATS victories , is 13-0-1 ATS in conference tilts. Also NW is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS after a SU victory. Play on Penn State to cover |
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09-30-23 | Florida v. Kentucky -1 | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 65 h 3 m | Show | |
Im betting Kentucky has finally arrived as a SEC side to be feared and not because of their talent but their grit . I know Florida has the bigger brand name and following, but the Wildcats proved recently they can handle the Gators as was evident last season when they took out the Gators on the road and also ended a 14 game home losing streak in this series back in 2021. FLORIDA is 2-10 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats defense has forced multiple takeaways in three of the four tilts and has been solid against the run and hasn’t allowed anyone to record 100 yards on the ground. Florida Im betting will be forced to be more one dimensional and despite of some good results this season, are in for a more formidable experience here today against a gritty Kentucky football program that plays with pride and passion. KENTUCKY is 14-4 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CFB home team vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half are 39-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Kentucky Wildcats |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU +2.5 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 62 h 42 m | Show | |
Both BYU and Cincinnati are off losses last week, but Im betting the Bearcats wont be able to bounce back as easily as they were physically smothered and battered by the Oklahoma D, only scoring 6 points and when nearing the red zone looked completely lost. In the Cougars loss to Kansas BYU ran more plays for more yards than the Jayhawks but turnovers proverbially killed them. This week in this matchup Im betting on a BYU D, that has looked good against the run to slow down the Beracats attack, and on the flipside for the potent Cougars passing attack to do well vs a Cincinnati D, that does better against the run than the pass. I know BYU has had a tremendous amount of trouble running the ball, but their passing attack behind Slovis has been explosive and that Im betting will be key to them getting the cover here at home. CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons CFB road team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 3-27 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate for bettors. |
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09-29-23 | Utah v. Oregon State -160 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 32 m | Show | |
Oregon State is off a road loss to Washington State last time out, but are now in a bounce back mode as they take on one of the favorites to win the PAC 12 championship this season (Utah). Oregon State has been a strong bet at home recently especially against conference opposition as is evident by their 9-0 ATS record as hosts vs PAC 12 brethren over the last 3 seasons. OREGON ST is also 8-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. After sustaining a lopsided 42-16 loss last season on the road to the Utes a revenge scenario will have this Beavers side ready to deliver pay back in merciless fashion this Thursday night on home turf. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (OREGON ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Oregon State to cover/win |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show | |
Cardinal getting a little bit to much respect here as they have failed to cover both road games this season. Meanwhile, NC State 3-1 has yet to really get untracked behind QB transfer from Virginia Brennan Armstrong who according to my QB matchup ratings matches up well vs this Louisville secondary. Advantage to the home underdog. LOUISVILLE is 27-44 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NC State to cover |
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09-28-23 | Temple v. Tulsa OVER 55.5 | 26-48 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Temple according to my power rankings is improving , and tonight I expect Owls QB Warner to light up a ugly looking Tulsa secondary for some decent production. I expect most of Qwls offense to come through the air, as their run offense has been quiet to say the least as evident by ranking 120th in the nation in rushing success . Defensively, Temple has some issues ranking 105th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 126th in Havoc .With that said Im betting on Tulsas run heavy offense to really do some damage here vs a Temple side that ranks 67th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 90th in Rushing PPA. Both sides should see some explosive offensve production all be it in two different ways, but the bottom line remains intact and that is a higher socring game than the linesmakers totals offering suggests. My projections estimate both sides will score more than 28 points.TEMPLE is 27-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points with the combined average score clicking in at 77.8 ppg.TULSA is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. Play over |
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09-25-23 | Rams +2 v. Bengals | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The Bengals QB Joe Burrow is not 100% after he aggravated his right calf strain in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. His calf has not been 100% since training camp started. Burrow did not practice Thursday and was expected to practice Monday morning but even if he plays will not be as mobile as he needs to be against aggressive groups of Rams. Meanwhile, Rams star QB Stafford recently passed Peyton Manning for the third-most passing yards by a player in his first 200 regular-season games (52,723 yards in 193 games). Rams won their first game of the season, but lost to their nemesis last week the Niners. Stafford completed 34 of 55 passes for 307 yards and is primed to come back strong this week vs what has looked like a unstable Bengals secondary so far this season. I know the Bengals are desperate for a win, but without a healthy Burrows at the helm of the offense that task will not be an easy one. NFL Home favorites (CINCINNATI) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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09-24-23 | Bears +13 v. Chiefs | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 26 m | Show | |
Bears are not a respected team, and after 12 straight losses are a side that is not getting much respect from the linesmakers against what is obviously a far superior side the KC Chiefs. The Bears are not expected to be competitive this week, but I think few are considering that the Chiefs may not be very motivated while the opposite will hold true for a Bears group playing loose and with nothing to lose. With that said Im willing to take the DD point spread in complete contrarian action. KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Bears have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to KC. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-24-23 | Panthers +6 v. Seahawks | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 24 m | Show | |
Im not buying in on a Seattle resurgence, and this week against Carolina Im betting on an emotional letdown scenario to hamper the home side. Last week the Seahawks, grabbed a overtime victory against the Detroit Lions in a heart pumping affair. Meanwhile, the Panthers were edged out by a FG at home against the New Orleans Saints in prime time Monday night action. I myself see major upward momentum and confidence building in Carolina, Note: Seahawks are 0-4 ATS L4 vs the NFC South, Also I know Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft in April, is banged up and didn't participate in Wednesday's walk-through practice because of an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Seahawks (1-1) But Veteran Andy Dalton is a more than capable starter for the Panthers and could easily make the Panthers offense more cohesive. SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 11-39 ATS since 1983 for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover |
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09-24-23 | Panthers v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 77 h 50 m | Show | |
These teams have a recent history of taking part in some high scoring affairs as is evident by the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 52.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. I know Carolinas offense has not looked all that explosive out of the gate this season, but they do go against a Seattle side that is off a 37-31 slugfest last time out and that also allowed 30 points in a loss to the Rams in week 1 play. With that said, my projections estimate both these sides will score 21 plus points. SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Carroll is 31-17 OVER after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of SEATTLE NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 26-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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09-24-23 | Broncos +6.5 v. Dolphins | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 57 m | Show | |
Miami has started their season at 2-0 while their opponents the Denver Broncos have lost their first two games but by a combined 3 points. Denver has consistently been competitive but just cant get over the hump for a W, but when getting points must respected from. a ATS perspective. Denver has lost 9 straight games where it had the lead at half time. Quote "As we've learned the past few years, almost every game is one score -- seven points, three points," Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III said. Quote "We need to finish those games 'cause we've lost too many over the past four years that I've been here." end quote. Today Im betting new HC Sean Payton finds a way to stay in this game here in Miami against a Fins side, that is coming home after two hard fought affairs, vs the Chargers and Patriots and could easily be in a emotional letdown situation this week. Its not an easy proposition to keep your energy levels up as a team for three straight games in the ultra physical NFL. Note: HC Payton 24-6-2 ATS in his NFL career against sides coming off a victory. MIAMI is 47-22 ATS (+22.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Play on Denver Broncos to cover |
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09-24-23 | Texans +9.5 v. Jaguars | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 38 m | Show | |
Houston has owned the Jags in previous meetings here in Jacksonville Florida winning 15 of their L/18 visits here SU and have cashed 5 of their L/6 SU/ATS as a underdog in this series overall. I know Houston has lost both their games so far this season, but they did win the stats war in both games and must not be underestimated in their ability to get the job done here again. I know The Jags smashed the host Texans 31-3 in Week 17 of last season to end a nine-game losing streak against Houston, but now with big time revenge on board and the desperation of needing a victory Im betting on a big time effort from the visitors. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has never won at home as a NFL favorite going 0-4 ATS while losing 3 of 4 SU. It must also be noted that Jacksonville is 1-14 ATS as a favorite if they were a underdog in their last game. JACKSONVILLE is 22-38 ATS L/60 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Texans to cover |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -145 v. Jets | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show | |
The Patriots have beaten the Jets 14 straight times and after going down 0-2 already are desperate for a win , which is unfortunate for QB Zach Wilson and his NY Jets. Considering Bill Belichick 18-3 SU L/21 in games when coming off back to back losses Im betting the Pats winning streak against the Jets remains intact. Also it must be noted without Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets they will have major problems moving the ball. Play on New England to win |
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09-24-23 | Chargers +1.5 v. Vikings | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 46 m | Show | |
I like the Chargers here this week despite of some early season ugly defensive performances especially in the secondary. . As result of their defensive issues they are 0-2 with both losses coming via FG or less margin of defeat, This a very good Chargers team and their record is not indicative their true talents On the flipside, Ive watched the Vikings and they are a team that is set for major regression, both on offense and defense, and thanks to a -6 turnover margin are side that does not deserve respect here even at home, especially against an extremely hungry team that is much deeper in my opinion. NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 24-5 ATS since 1983 for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chargers to cover |
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09-23-23 | Central Florida v. Kansas State -3.5 | 31-44 | Win | 100 | 57 h 21 m | Show | |
KState lost at Missouri last time out as favs and will now be very prepared to bounce back at home this week vs visiting UCF. Note: KANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS STATE is also 11-2 ATS when coming off their first loss of the season. UCF against their only FBS opponent this season lost to Boise State by a 18-16 count, and things look to be alot more tougher this week against a motivated opponent looking to get back into the win column. UCF is 0-7 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF beat up on a lower tier Villanova side last week by a 48-14 count ) CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 36-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking at +23.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Kansas State to cover |
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09-23-23 | Sam Houston State +12.5 v. Houston | 7-38 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 25 m | Show | |
What stands out here for me when I decided to take the points is Sam Houstons D, which held their first two opponents to under 260 yards while holding BYU and Air Force to 14 and 13 respectively. With the Cougars off a TCU battle, and now looking ahead the Bearkats have a team that could find their motivational skills tested . Houston has lost the stats battle in all 3 games this season , and just dont look all that cohesive vs a upstart that will rattle them physically. Note: Sam Houston is 2-0 ATS this season. HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Play on Sam Houston to cover |
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09-23-23 | Arkansas +18 v. LSU | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show | |
Wow what an embarrassment last week for the Razorbacks , at home vs BYU. Talk about falling a sleep at the proverbial wheel. The reason why I say this is that the Hogs owned the stats battle, outing gaining the Cougars by a 424-281 margin. Now going against a team that they were probably looking ahead in a revenger for last season loss against LSU (LSU beat Arkansas 13-10), I expect Sam Pittman who has only failed in one of 8 ATS as is visitor with revenge to get the job done here . Note: Arkansas is also 7-1-1 ATS on the road with conference revenge on board. . : LSU is 0-8-1 ATS L/9 when favored by 13 or more points in conference home openers. . Play on Arkansas to cover |
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09-23-23 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -165 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 116 h 23 m | Show | |
09-23-23 | BYU v. Kansas OVER 54.5 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG and averaging 37 plus points per game on the season. Meanwhile, BYU in back to back games have scored 38 and 41 points and thanks to not being able to run the ball consistently have been firing away down field via their passing game. Today Im betting on a back and forth all guns blazing tilt with the combined average score eclipsing this number. My projections estimate both sides will score 28 plus points. KANSAS is 40-5 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points with a combined average of 77.5 ppg scored. .BYU is 6-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 9-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored. Leipold is 10-1 OVER after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached with a combined average of 76.4 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 41-16 OVER L/31 seasons. Play over |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 3 m | Show | |
Its obviously taking some time to get this version of the Crimson Tide to tho jell, but you can bet HC Saban will be primed to have his team prepared for undefeated Ole Miss here this week, after his first home game of the season vs Texas ended in surprising disaster. Last time out after that debacle the Tide started slowly but the D, shined in. a17-3 win vs USF, and once again will be the key to a Alabama victory here today vs a program they have beaten 15 of the L/16 times. It must also be noted that Saban in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, is 8-0 SUATS the L/8 opportunities and is also 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory and 4-0 SU/ATS versus undefeated sides with huge DD margin of victory being registered . Its been tough sledding on offense for Alabama but this week vs a over rated Ole Miss D, they do enough to get us the win and cover on a beat down opening line. . Play on Alabama to cover |
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09-23-23 | Kentucky -13 v. Vanderbilt | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 103 h 54 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt could not even beat a Mountain West team last week losing to UNLV by a 40-37 count. I know that Kentucky plays Florida next week, but Im absolutely sure they will still be focused enough to dispose of this defensively deficient Commodores team in what will be a near empty stadium this Saturday. CFB Road favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 43-1 SU with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +23.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Kentucky to cover |
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09-23-23 | Florida State v. Clemson +2.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
Clemson not getting much respect here as the Seminoles are listed a road favs. Thats interesting since considering Dabo Swinney is 93-8 SU since taking over the program 15 seasons ago , and in Death Valley against undefeated opposition is 14-0 since 2015. It must also be noted that the Seminoles may not be as good as they record suggests after a ugly late game effort vs Boston College last week, where they just about lost,. With head coach Mike Norvell losing 3 of 5 SU and just 1-4 ATS away in conference games when coming in with no losses, its not like the Seminoles deserve this much respect as Norvell has lost both meetings against Swinnney in his career. Tigers are also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in the last five in this series and get the nod again on their own home turf. CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game since 1992. FLORIDA ST is 21-37 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992 CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) . an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 45-16 ATS since 1992 for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Clemson to cover |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Purdue | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show | |
Wisconsin has owned this series winning 16 straight meetings and covering 13 of those. With HC Fickell looking like he has this Badgers team on the rise again, Im betting they get the job done vs a disorganized looking Purdue side, that continually makes bad offensive reads and a defense that has allowed and average of 30 plus points per game. Play on Wisconsin to cover |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10.5 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -108 | 83 h 41 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Giants much of a chance this week. However, my projections estimate this line is bloated and gives us value with the road underdog. The The Giants proved their offense can be explosive as was evident in a 31 points second half output against the Cardinals in Week 2 for a come from behind victory and must be underestimated in their ability to some damage here this week in San Francisco. I know the Gmens top tier RB Saquon Barkley is banged up and may not play, but even then my projections say this is just to much lumber for the 49ers to lay. Advantage Giants. NY GIANTS are 22-9 ATS L/31 in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game .NY GIANTS are 18-4 ATS L/22 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in September games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State +6.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Georgia State looked explosive in thier first 3 games of the season with wins vs Rhode Island Connecticut and Charlotte scoring 42,35, and 41 points respectively. With revenge on board for a ugly loss to Coastal Carolina last season, you can bet we will be backing a wide awake side that will come out here with all guns blazing. With that said, its interesting to note that the Chanticleers are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 vs a side that will play them with revenge as a motivating factor. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 11-1 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. COASTAL CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. Play on Georgia State to cover |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Mike Tomlin's team was completely embarrassed last week vs the 49ers by a 30-7 count. Ugly to say the least. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and Im betting the Steelers as a group bounce back here in a big way. It must be noted that Tomlin is 8-1 SU when his side needs to even up their record. Tomlin is also 14-4-4 ATS as a home dog in his career as Steelers coach. . I know Cleveland had a big victory last week vs Cincinnati , but it the recent past this has not been a good omen for this group as they are 1-9 ATS L/10 when coming off a SUATS victory. CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS L/15 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival . NFL Underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Pittsburgh ahs won and covered the L/2 meetings at home between these sides.PITTSBURGH is 28-3 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992 in Pittsburgh. Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 45 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 51 m | Show | |
Niners had the league’s No.1 scoring defense last season allowing just 17.2 ppg and are off holding the Steelers to 7 points and a total of 239 yards on offense. On the flipsdie, the Rams, travelled to Seattle in week 1 action and slowed the Seahawks down to a crawl, as is evident by allowing just 180 total yards and only 13 points. Needless to say both the LA Rams and the SF 49ers looked very good defensively in game 1 of the season. Both did this while playing in the visitors role. Note:NFL Game2 sides playing in the their 2nd of back-to-back away tilts like the 49ers have only eclipsed the offered total just twice in 18 opportunities dating back 7 seasons. Also away sides like SF, have gone under 13 of their L/14 road games after allowing 7 pts or less on the road in their previous game. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Defense, Defense and more defense today in what Im betting will be a grinding tilt. NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 64% or better, versus division opponents are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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09-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Bucs | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 55 m | Show | |
There might have been to much hype surrounding the Bears in game 1 of the season against a Green Bay Packers side that has now beaten them in 9 straight and 24 of the L/27 meetings. Yes, the Bears looked bad in their first game of the season, but I still believe they will be an improved team, despite not necessarily being a play off contender. Here today against the Bucs Im betting they give their backers something to feel good about, as QB Fields and new acquisition DJ Moore should up their games, after that previous embarrassing effort. Meanwhile, their opposition, the Bucs might even be a worse of than the bad news Bears, as in game 1 of the season the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play while the defense allowed 5.9 YPP. The Bucs still managed to win because of a 3-0 turnover margin, but they looked horrendous in the victory, and are being over rated while their opponents the Bears todays opponent might be under rated in this matchup. Whatever, the case I like the points here and Im recommending we go on the take the lesser of two evils. TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 99-171 since 1983 for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 46 m | Show | |
Bengals star QB is off a ugly game week 1 performance vs Cleveland, where he registered a unfamiliar 52.2 passer rating. You can now bet the top gun quarterback will be primed for a big bounce back this week against the Baltimore Ravens. Bengals QB Burrow is 13-1 SUATS in his NFL career in games against opposition coming off a SU/ATS win like the Ravens.CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons at home. Rinse and repeat. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-17-23 | Colts +1.5 v. Texans | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
Colts QB Richardson was overall impressive in his first NFL start. He ran for a score but also completed a 39-yard touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr. He passed for 223 yards, completed 24 of 37 attempts and looks to be very poised under center and must be respected here in the underdog role. Meanwhile, his QB opponent Stroud, is a viable young arm, but Richardson looks more polished at this point and from my perspective the Colts are the overall deeper , healthier and more talented side and I wont be surprised if they win this game straight up. Stroud did not get a TD in first outing and the sledding promises to be less than easy in this tilt. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - sub par team from last season - outgained by their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play are 5-26 L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate. NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 in Houston and won their last visit here. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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09-16-23 | Kansas -28 v. Nevada | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 51 m | Show | |
Ken Wilson’s Nevada are a defensively challenged team as is evident by allowing 552 yards per game ranking them (No. 123 in the country). thats not a good omen heading into this tilt vs an explosive Kansas Jayhawks side, that ranks No.10 in the nation in offense averaging 530 yards per game averaging 41 point per game. With that said, this looks very much to be a mismatch of mammoth proportions. Note: Kansas is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 20 or more point favorite . NEVADA is 0-6 ATS when they allow 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 30.2 . CFB home team (NEVADA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 8-40 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show | |
After upsetting Alabama last week the Texas Longhorns are in a huge emotional letdown situation. Also because of this the line is becoming public heavy offering us a great opportunity for a underdog cover vs a Wyoming side that is stable on both sides of the ball and off a win vs Texas Tech last time out . This is a tough spot for the Longhorns as they have Baylor on board next time out, so their attention may not be fully where they need it to be. TEXAS is 21-37 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. Longhorns are also 0-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorites in matchups when they are off an upset victory as a underdog of 7 or more points. Wyoming is 3-0 ATS L/3 meetings in this series. Play on Wyoming to cover |
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09-16-23 | New Mexico State +1.5 v. New Mexico | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 58 m | Show | |
The New Mexico Lobos are 0-8 ATS the last eight as a favorite and Im betting their losing run continues today in the battle of instate rivals here today. Lobos, are also 1-7 ATS the last eight games in this series.Last season NM State took a 21-9 win as 7-point chalk at Las Cruces and I dont believe that the Lobos have made enough changes to get the revenge they want . New Mexico State to cover |
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09-16-23 | Syracuse v. Purdue +2.5 | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 53 m | Show | |
Syracuse Orange have looked impressive in their first two games, but they haven't faced any top tier opponents, only taking out a Group of Five opponent and a nonmajor side.Syracuse won last season's meeting with Purdue at home by, 32-29 count, as the teams combined for 42 fourth-quarter points , but now Im betting on the home side once again finding a way to come out on top . Dino Barber is a good coach , but this according to my power rankings is bad matchup for his side. Note: the Orange have struggled on the road, winning just five of their last 20 road games. They have also won just three of their L/17 tilts against Big Ten opposition. Play on Purdue to cover |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 71 h 5 m | Show | |
Tennessee has lost 10 straight visits to the Swamp and Im betting knocking out that jinx run wont come easily today behind QB Joe Milton who cant seem to find a rhythm. You can bet HC Napier and company will play hard here vs a side, that will finally play a tough opponent after two FCSc cupcakes. Napier is also 3-0 SU/ATS with Florida as an underdog at home. CFB home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% onversion rate. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-6 ATS L/31` seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play on Florida to cover |
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09-16-23 | James Madison +3 v. Troy | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 59 h 31 m | Show | |
JMU took out Virginia last week 36-35 and must be respected here against Troy getting points. Troys 12 game undefeated run came to a screeching halt in their tilt last week, in a 42-13 loss to KsState and now they are in jeopardy of a two game losing streak. JMU is 22-8 in conference openers, which includes winning its past eight between 2015 and 2022.This is also JMU's fifth straight conference opener on the road.Last season, JMU rallied back from down 28-3 at App State, scoring 29 unanswered for a thrilling 32-28 win. Play on James Madison to cover |
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09-16-23 | South Carolina +28 v. Georgia | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
This asking price for Georgia is just a little bit high according to my projections. In no shape or form am I saying south Carolina will pull of an uspet here, but they should be competitive. It must be noted that The GameCocks own a 7-0 ATS record as the visitors in this series and must be respected in their ability to stay within the number. South Carolina has cashed 4 of their L/5 as road dogs of 15 points or more.
GEORGIA is 3-12 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.GEORGIA is 6-16 ATS in home games after a 2 game home stand since 1992. Play on South Carolina to cover |
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09-16-23 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 47 | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 6 m | Show | |
ECU defense ranks 99th in total defense and 104th in scoring defense and Im betting is in deep trouble vs the Mountaineers. Meanwhile, App State is top-50 in total offense, passing offense, rushing offense and scoring offense and Im betting they tee off here today on their own home field vs a side that looks vulnerable . App State D, has also been sub par and even though the Pirates have not really been rhythmic on offense so far this season they should do enough damage here to help us eclipse this beat down number. Houston is 10-0 OVER off a home loss as the coach of E CAROLINA with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored. (E.Carolina lost last time out 31-13 to Marshall.) Play over |
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09-16-23 | Georgia Southern +19.5 v. Wisconsin | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 11 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern must not be underestimated getting this may points as they look to an explosive offensive side that can put points up on the board in a hurry as is evident by averaging 41.5 PPG in their first two games and wins of the season. It must be noted that Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS in their L/2 vs the Sunbelt and looked lethargic at times vs Washington State in a loss last time out. Whiskey is just 1-7 ATS L/8 when coming off a road loss. Im not a big Luke Fickell fan and have no problems fading his ability to inspire the Badgers at home in Camp Randall today where the Badgers are just 12-12 ATS L/24 overall. Last season, the Eagles stunned Nebraska 45-42, another Big Ten opponent, and Im betting they compete here today. Play on Georgia southern to cover |
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09-15-23 | Virginia +15 v. Maryland | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Virginia fell part late falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a very good JMD side last week giving up 12 points in the final quarter to lose 36-35 but Im betting on a wide awake bounce back effort here tonight against a Maryland side that they have covered against in their L/4 trips here in the visitors role. It must also be noted that this Virginia football program is 5-0 ATS in road openers off a loss. CFB home team (MARYLAND) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a sub par rushing team (100 or less RY/game) are 8-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. CFB team (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Virginia to cover |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
Philadelphia did not look good against New England this past Sunday, but found a way to win even tough they were out yarded by 131 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost despite of out gaining their opponent, the Tampa bay Bucs by 127 yards. It must ber noted that Minnesota's' QB Kirk Cousins is 29-9 ATS when his team were defeated the previous week. I know these teams showed diff results on the scoreboard, but I like the way the Vikes lineup here vs a injury riddled Eagles lineup , and they will get my support getting points. Philadelphia is n 0-6 ATS in their L/6 home openers, NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46.5 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 107 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jets and Bills have a recent low scoring matchup history as is evident by three straight under in the last 3 meetings with 37, 37, and 32 combined points going on the scoreboard. Last season Buffalo went under the Total in 7 of 8 road games when favored, while the Jets went under in 4 of 5 games as home pups. BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 ppg scored. Also Monday night home dogs have remained on the low side of the number 13 straight times over the last couple of seasons. Considering this field is prob going to be in bad shape after the Dallas. NY Giants games on Sunday it would be fair to access that the sledding could be rough for the offenses which once again favors a lower scoring affair. NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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09-10-23 | Rams +5.5 v. Seahawks | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 81 h 22 m | Show | |
The Rams had a bad season last year, but that was in part due to key injuries including top gun QB M Stafford who is now healthy. Im now betting on a rebound from the Rams, and on the flipside for QB Geno Smith and company to regress after a better than expected season in 2022. Note: The Rams have cashed 5 of their L/6 season openers, while the Seahawks have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 as division home favs of 3 points or more. Rams are also 7-3 ATS L/10 as division road dogs. . LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons and have covered their L/2 trips to Seattle. Play on Rams to cover |
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09-10-23 | Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
Las Vegas’ key offseason move came under center as they replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and if he stays healthy he will pay dividends for this Raiders franchise.The Las Vegas Raiders have won their last six matchups with the Denver Broncos and Im betting they wont lose this game easily making getting points a viable investment option. It must also be noted that Denver has failed to cover 6 straight as division home favs. I know there is hype behind the Broncos but until they prove themselves with actual wins instead of just being competitive they are fade material. LAS VEGAS is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992 NFL Home favorites (DENVER) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-43 ATS. since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors. Play on the Raiders to cover |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +4 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 1 m | Show | |
New England’s offense has had an offseason revamp following the hiring of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Im betting they will be more aggressive offensively right out of the gate. The type of football that QB Mac Jones, thrived on in his days with Alabama will be implemented here with key receivers getting his attention, including new acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots have won four of the past five regular-season meetings and most not be underestimated here today at home. Defensively Im betting on LB Matt Judon to wreak havoc on the Eagles in an all out physical battle that favors the Pats. Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games. NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. New England is 12-3 SU L/15 home season openers under Bill Belichick . The loser of the previous Super Bowl if they are away in Game One of the campaign are just 2-15 ATS dating back 33 seasons. Play on New England Pats to cover |