Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders OVER 45.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 24 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys and the Oakland Raiders, go head to head this Sunday night with both sides still clinging to play off hopes. The Cowboys look to be clicking on offense scoring 28 and 30 points in their L/2 games, even with RB Ezekiel Elliot out because of suspension. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for 332 yards last week vs the Giants , and showing he can move the chains through the air. Today against a Raiders secondary that allowed the Chiefs and average of 12.1 yards per passing play last week, Prescott should be ready to get it done and again and put a boatload full of points on the board helping this game go over the number. I know Oakland has not been lighting things up of late offensively, but there is more than enough talent here for them to fight back in desperation, and also put points up on the board. The Raiders are 12-1 L/13 OVER in non division home games with a combined average of 55.1 ppg going on the board . Cowboys are 10-2 L/12 after their D, allowed 10 points or less in their last game. HC Del Rio is 9-2 OVER in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored.
Play OVER |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -3 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 100 h 47 m | Show | |
The Steelers are off back to back grueling games and comebacks vs Cincinnati and last week vs the Baltimore Ravens. The game against the Bengals was nasty and extremely physical and 2nd game vs the Ravens while not as ugly was exhausting , which will now have the Steelers on tired legs at the worst possible time. Meanwhile, New England had a 7 game win streak ended at Miami last time out, as Brady and company looked like they were more interested in south Florida vacation rather than their game against the Fins, and it cost them as they lost 27-20 as big road favs on Monday night. What I'm betting will happen in this tilt, is that the Pats will be ready for a bounce back, against a tired side that has worked way to hard of late. NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS L/19 when playing with 6 or less days rest .NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS L/9 in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS L/7 as a road favorite of 7 points or less. NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game . Patriots are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games ae 32-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the New England Patriots to cover |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 85 h 38 m | Show | |
All teams go through slumps, including the KC chiefs, who ended a 4 game losing streak with a win last week vs the Oakland Raiders. Now with a little momentum on their sides I'm betting they take out a LA chargers side, that has won 4 straight games. I know Andy Reid's squad may not inspire bettors , but remember this is the NFL, and teams can go form zero to hero very quickly and vice versa. With that said, when using my player to player matchup systems and styles of play, my own analysis likes the way the Chiefs matchup vs the Chargers as was evident on Sept 24 in LA when the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10. KC is 7-0 SU L/7 in this series. Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 12-35 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors. Play on KC Chiefs to cover |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 84 h 20 m | Show | |
It's chilly this time of year in KC, and the warm weather Chargers I'm betting will be slowed down by the cool weather . It must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 14 of their L/16 home games in December/January. Considering the Chargers are 1-7 UNDER L/8 overall , and own the 2nd ranking scoring D in the NFL I will not be surprised with a low scoring affair here this week. When these teams played back in Sept the Chiefs took a physical 24-10 win and a similar type of score is not out of the question and according to my numbers a high probability outcome. The Chargers road games this season average just 38.7 combined points per game. KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Reid is 19-6 UNDER in a home game with KC where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored LA CHARGERS is 6-0 UNDER L/6 after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 14-4 UNDER L/18 in games where the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a home loss against opponent, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State -3 | 35-30 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL Middle Tenn State enters this bowl game having failed to cover 4 straight bowl appearances and I'm betting on another loss here vs Arkansas State this week . I know a lot has been made of how Middle Tennessee State had to endure playing without injured QB Brent Stockstill the son of the Blue Raiders coach, but the truth is with or without him in the line this MTSU is just plain over rated and according to my numbers in over their head vs Red Wolves team that out gained their final 7 opponents of the season. . Meanwhile, Arkansas State boasts an explosive QB Justice Hansen who averages 330 ypg, and has converted 34 TDs this season and the team as whole averages more than 2 TDs a game more than their opponents tonight. I waited to get -3 and a few books have made it available so, I have decided to pull the trigger. MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-10 ATS L/11 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and is 9-22 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games. Play on Arkansas State to cover |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 93 h 30 m | Show | |
GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM
CUSA Bowl teams are very successful of late winning 22 of their L/33 SU since 2011. Holliday is 9-1 ATS L/10 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest . Play on Marshall to cover |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Western Kentucky UNDER 52 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 166 h 41 m | Show | |
AUTONATION CURE BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL Both these teams struggled to put points on the board this season, with W.Kentucky averaging only 19 ppg away from home, and Georgia State 19.7 ppg overall on offense. I'm betting on points to once again be hard to by for both sides, and for the combined total score to end up on the low side of the number. GEORGIA ST is 12-4 UNDER L/16 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored. CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (GEORGIA ST/W.KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 90 h 12 m | Show | |
R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Superdome - New Orleans, LA North Texas enters this game as TD underdog vs the Sun Belt champion Troy. However, it must be noted that UNT is 9-0 SU all time vs Sun Belt sides when they own a .500 record or better , and Troy is just 2-7 ATS /0-4 ATS L/4 as favs vs CUSA opposition and have failed to cover 3 of 4 as Bowl favorites. I know the Mean Green looked horrid in their championship tilt vs Florida Atlantic , but the good news is that CUSA Bowl teams are 13-2 ATS off a loss. Note: Conference USA sides like N.Texas in Bowl Games over the L/6 seasons are 22-11 SU. I also noticed Troy looked wiped at the end of the season and despite of beating Arkansas State in their last game were actually out gained by more than 300 yards. NORTH TEXAS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points. Play on North Texas to cover |
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12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts +3 | 25-13 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
Denver is off ending an extended 8 game losing streak last week vs a sub .500 opponent the NY Jets by a 23-0 count. Now suddenly they are being made road favorites, which is kind of odd considering they have lost 8 straight SU/ATS away dating back to last season and how awful they have looked more most of this season. I know the Colts may not inspire bettors, but in the past the Colts have had success when facing this Broncos franchise winning 9 of the L/10 meetings ATS ( 8-2 SU), and have done well in Thursday night football tilts winning 13 of their L/15 appearances SU. These teams are very closely matched in their present forms , and getting points here is the less of two evils and a viable investment opportunity. Denver is 0-6 ATS on the road this season with the average score clicking in at : Opponent 30.5 Denver 13.5. DENVER is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season dating back to last season. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points are 12-35 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% on the blind for bettors. Play on the Indianapolis colts to cover |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
New England tonight will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was suspended for one game by the league for his intentional late hit last week against Tre'Davious White of the Buffalo Bills. He is a key cog in the Pats offensive attack and I'm betting will effect the Pats production . Meanwhile, Patriots D, is now in top form and have not allowed more than 17 points in 7 straight games ( 11.56 ppg). Tonight against a Dolphins side averaging 17.4 points and ranked 26th in the league in offense, I'm also betting on New England's defense to stand tall and make like difficult for the inconsistent Jay Cutler and company. Everything points to this being a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. Yes, I know that Fins exploded last week vs Denver winning and scoring 35 points, but its interesting to note, that teams that are 3 or more point dogs, off a of a straight up underdog win at home in which they scored 35 points have gone UNDER 7 straight times dating back to last season. Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NFL road chalk of 8 points or more like the Pats are 31-4 UNDER since 2011 campaign, and have gone under 20 of the L/21 times overall. Also divisional road favs of more than a FG have gone under 10 of the L/11 times. Play UNDER |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +5 v. Steelers | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 79 h 17 m | Show | |
The Steelers enter this game a bit banged up with key Receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster suspended after a hard block on Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict on Monday night and will also miss Linebacker Ryan Shazier out with a spinal injury suffered during that Helmut banging tilt . That was a physical game, and I'm betting the Steelers won't be as fresh as they need to be vs another rival the Baltimore Ravens. Add to that the Steelers also exerted a lot of energy in their comeback in the above mentioned game after falling behind 17-3 before winning it by a 23-20 count. Exhausting, beat up and emotionally let down are the key words here to describe the Steelers coming in this game . Meanwhile, the Ravens have the momentum of last weeks 44-20 win vs the Lions. Note: BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS L/10 after scoring 40 points or more last game. With Joe Flacco starting to rev up, I'm betting on Ravens being a handful for the Steelers in this contest. In his last seven games at Heinz Field, Flacco completed 64.4 percent of his passes, averaging 241.7 yards per contest with eight touchdowns and three interceptions and must be respected as an underdog in this spot. The Steelers beat Baltimore 26-9 in the first meeting on Oct 1, but I'm betting on the revenge minded Raves making this game much closer. NFL team vs the money line (BALTIMORE) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 53-13 SU and 5-1 SU this season. NFL team (BALTIMORE) - off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 63-33 ATS L/10 seasons. Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -2.5 | 43-35 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 42 m | Show | |
The Eagles (10-2) had their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 24-10 loss at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a grueling physical affair that saw key tight end Zach Ertz leave the game with a head injury. Todays battle, vs the Rams, will feature, two of the top young quarterbacks selected in the 2016 NFL draft -- Rams quarterback Jared Goff (No. 1) and Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (No. 2). With that said, m own power rankings suggest Goff has the slight edge, at home, It must also be noted that its never easy for teams travelling east to west , and with this being the Rams second straight west coast road game, their at even bigger disadvantage . Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Rams are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NFL Home favorites (LA RAMS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. NFL Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season. are just 15-42 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 23 m | Show | |
Interim Giants new head coach Spagnuolo will have his demoralized team ready to play this week, as Eli Manning, the Giants' franchise quarterback since 2004, goes back under center , after being removed from the starting lineup by now fired McAdoo. That tilt was the first game that Manning had not participated in since Nov. 14 of his rookie season. I'm betting that will be a wakeup call for Giants, and to spur Manning from his comfort zone into in a big effort this week on his own backyard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are banged up and will be without suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott another week and could also be without offensive lineman La'el Collins (back), linebacker Justin Durant (concussion/illness), defensive lineman David Irving (concussion), cornerback Orlando Scandrick (back), left tackle Tyron Smith (back) and middle linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) . Considering how pumped the Giants will be I'm betting the Cowboys in their usual inconsistent ways will not be in top form here and the Giants come out of this with a cover. Yes, the Cowboys won last week by a 38-14 count vs the Skins, but previous to that game they scored 6,9,7 points respectively in three straight losses. Note: Cowboys are 11-22 L/33 as road division favs. Manning in December games when coming off consecutive losses is 13-0-1 ATS L/14 games. NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS L/6 after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - revenging a loss against opponent, off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. ( The Boyz pounded the Giants earlier this season by a 19-3 count) Play on the NY Giants to cover |
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12-10-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 7 m | Show | |
The Vikings (10-2) are in a quest for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and mean business here today as the play a Carolina team that is good but not quite ready for another run at a Super Bowl crown and in a letdown situation after last weeks loss to New Orleans. QUOTE: "We've got four games left," Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer said. "My only thoughts are on the Carolina Panthers and trying to get a win this week. All that stuff is nice to talk about, but for us we'll go about our business." END QUOTE. The Vikings are looking extremely strong and are more than capable short road favs here that more than capable of covering the spread. The Panthers are 0-10 ATS/SU losing by an average of 11.45 ppg off a loss as a dog when facing a non-divisional opponent that is scoring more than 23.5% of their points from field goals.Minnesota is 17-3 ATS L/20 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/G or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G or less forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-13 ATS L/34 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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12-10-17 | 49ers v. Texans OVER 44.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 43 m | Show | |
Last week SFs QB Garoppolo went 26 for 37 for 293 yards, and his opponent today from the Texans Savage went 31 of 49 for 365 yards. With both these teams defenses ranked near at the bottom of the league ( SF 25th) Houston ( 28th) a high scoring game is not out of the question. It's not like these teams have anything to play for other than pride , so a loosely played affair is a high probability according to my own projections. Yes, I do know both teams have had trouble putting points on the board consistently, but I'm expecting a lot more points this week than many might anticipate. HOUSTON is 16-3 OVER L/19 in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games of 48.3 ppg going on the board. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games with combined average of 48.5 ppg.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game with a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored.
Play on the OVER |
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12-09-17 | Army +3.5 v. Navy | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 118 h 40 m | Show | |
Navy after a fast start to their campaign had the wheels fall of their proverbial wagon going down the stretch as is evident by losing, 5 of their L/6 games. Meanwhile, Army has really shown me alot this season and are one of the best groups the Cadets have had on the field in a long time. The Cadets shut out the other military academy Air Force this season, and have had this game circled on their calendars for a long time. I'm not sure they will win this game, but one thing I'm betting on is that nothing will come easy for Navy in their current form, which gives a very motivated Army side the edge taking points. The last two games in this series were decided by identical 21-17 scores, with Army covering both times. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Neutral field underdogs (ARMY) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 22-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Army to cover |
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12-07-17 | Saints -1 v. Falcons | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 38 h 26 m | Show | |
The Saints are the real deal as is evident by having won by 9 of their L/10. The Saints had a good win vs the Panthers last time out showing me their tenacity . This is not the same one way team that Saints have put on the field in the past, and right now their clicking on all cylinders and look like a strong candidate to take out the Falcons tonight in their own backyard. The Falcons are 7-5 and recently had a three-game winning streak come to an end with a setback against Minnesota, and are now in a letdown situation at the worst possible time. |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43 | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night in an AFC North showdown that I am betting will be a grueling defensive affair.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati ranks fifth in the NFL in pass defense, only allowing 203.8 yards a game. The Bengals are 10th in the NFL in points allowed at 19.5 per contest. So points for the Steelers wont come easily . Also as far as the big strike WR Brown goes, he also may not be as big factor as he usually is. Note: Brown has faced the Cincinnati defense 15 times in his career, 14 regular-season games and one playoff game. He went over 100 yards only three times in those contests, and the Bengals secondary according to my current ratings matches up very well against him. PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 32 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road lined games this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 16-5 UNDER in the second half of the season during the last few seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. NFL Monday night division games with the away team favored by more than 3 points have gone under 6 straight times. Steelers have gone under 8 straight times in division road game and have gone under 8 straight times as a road fav or 4 points or more. Bengals have gone under in 3 straight Monday night appearances. NFL team against the total (CINCINNATI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 27-8 UNDER L./5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors.
Play UNDER |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 80 h 8 m | Show | |
The Eagles enter this game on fire having won 5 straight games by DD margins. Needless to say, the city of Philly is going wild, and I smell a bit of irrational exuberance in the air . With that said, I'm betting the Eagles might be starting to believe the hype of their own press clippings, which suits a veteran coach like Carroll and veteran laden player group just fine in Seattle as they will be primed to spring the upset. HC Carroll is 21-9 SU with Seattle in December games and has won and covered three straight vs NFC East opponents during this month. The Hawks QB Russell Wilson thrives in December tilts going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS vs .666 or better opposition late in the season when the veteran seems to shine the most. Seattle's HC Carroll is 17-4 ATS L/21 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return in the second half of the season in his career. NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors. Play on Seattle to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-17 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 45 | 32-16 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 16 m | Show | |
These teams in recent meetings have played some low scoring affairs with the average combined score clicking in at 35.8 ppg in the L/4 meetings including a 33-0 shut out by the Rams earlier this season. The Rams have been explosive offensively, but what stands out is their defense, that is allowing just 18.7 ppg. Considering how muted the Arizona offense has been for the most part this season, averaging just 18.5 ppg, I'm betting the home teams output will be muted once again, which will aid in this tilt staying under the set total. It must also be noted that TD or more divisional road favs have gone under 22 of the L/23 times dating back 3 seasons when the total is 52 or less. Cardinals have gone under L/6 divisional home games. Rams have gone under in 8 of their L/10 as road favs. ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in home games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return with the average combined score clicking in at 40.3 ppg. LA RAMS is 6-0 UNDER L/6 after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game with a combined average score of 33.3 ppg getting scored. LA RAMS is 13-4 UNDER l/17 in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored. All Week 12 divisional games are 19-40 UNDER L/10 seasons. The Rams have gone UNDER 15 straight times vs a divisional opponent when they are off a game as a favorite in which they allowed four or fewer or third down conversions with the average combined score clicking in at 35.2 ppg. NFL team against the total (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for totals bettors. NFL team against the total (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-17 | Panthers +4.5 v. Saints | 21-31 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 1 m | Show | |
New Orleans (8-3) eight-game winning streak came to an abrupt end last week in LA vs the Rams, and now they find them selves in a position to lose their NFC South lead as the Carolina Panthers, who are also 8-3, come into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday looking to avenge a 34-13 loss to the Saints in Week 3. The Panthers have won four straight games to move back into a statistical tie with the Saints atop the division, and are my pick today to get us the cover in what I'm betting will be a hard fought affair that could easily be won with a late FG. New Orleans head coach Payton knows about the freight train that is coming his way QUOTE: ."The last four weeks, they're running the ball extremely well," he said. "Their plus-minus in the turnover ratio has flopped entirely. Defensively, you're seeing one of the better defenses in the league right now when you look at total yards, scoring -- pick a number. They're healthy and I think playing with a lot of confidence. The time of possession has been significantly in their favor as well. Certainly, in this winning stretch, they're first in the league." END QUOTE. I'll back the Saints coach here and recommend we take the points with the talented and peeking visitors. CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS L/6 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game.NEW ORLEANS is 4-14 ATS L/18 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. Play on Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-17 | Patriots -8.5 v. Bills | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 75 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't like to make it a habit laying more than a TD on the road with any NFL team, but if their are rare exceptions and this is one of them, as I recommend we lay the lumber with the defending New England Pats this afternoon on the road in Buffalo. After a slow start to their current campaign, the Pats have seemingly got better with each progressive game, on both sides of the ball. The Pats have not allowed more than 17 points in any of their L/7 games, with opposing offenses averaging just 11.5 ppg . On offense QB Brady and company have scored 41,33, and 35 points respectively in their three most recent tilts and are revving on all engines at the moment and ready for a huge take off. |Meanwhile, Buffalo has been wildly inconsistent this season, and in a recent home game vs New Orleans were clobbered a 47-10 count. In last years visit to Buffalo the Pats won by a 41-25 count in a game that was not as close as the score might indicate. With that said, I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation and a conclusive Patriots win and cover. Note: The Pats covered a 17 point home favs last week, and this number even here on the road is very beatable. Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games. NEW ENGLAND is 15-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games with the average margin of victory coming by 16.3 ppg. Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-17 | Vikings +3 v. Falcons | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 74 h 29 m | Show | |
Minnesota (9-2) is playing at a very high level and at the head of their division and have won seven straight games as they head south to face the Falcons (7-4) on Sunday. The Vikings have a chance at home-field advantage in the play offs and will be primed and ready to take out their hosts. QUOTE: "We've yet to accomplish everything we want to accomplish, and we've got a lot of work ahead of us, but we're hungry for it," said Case Keenum, who has earned another start this week at quarterback. "I think everybody in this locker room is hungry." END QUOTE: The current numbers and my own power rankings suggest that Minnesota is the superior side. Minnesota is fifth in the NFL with 375.7 yards per game, while Atlanta's some times explosive offense has recorded 373.4 yards per game. The Vikings are eighth in scoring (24.6 points per game) to the Falcons in 11th (24.1) in the league. Note: There are Two injury concerns for the Falcons that put them at a disadvantage vs the Vikings as starting cornerbacks Brian Poole and Desmond Trufant. Both left last week's game and did not practice Wednesday. Poole is dealing with a back injury, while Trufant has a concussion. I know Atlanta has been hot of late, but this franchise has not dealt well with success at least from a ATS perspective very well after some top tier efforts as is obvious by their 2-17 ATS L/19 run in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. ATLANTA is 6-16 ATS L/22 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS L/8 off a win against a division rival.MINNESOTA is 16-3 ATS L/19 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.ATLANTA is 3-15 ATS L/18 in home games off a home win by 10 points or more which happened against TB last time out . The Falcons are 0-10 ATS failing to cover by an average of 8.8 ppg on turf off a game as a favorite when the line is within 3 of pick and they are averaging at least 24 points per game over their last three games. they were 2-8 SU during that ATS run with the two wins coming by 2 points and 1 point respectively. NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 44-17 ATS L/34 seasons for a 72% long term conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +7 | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 58 h 35 m | Show | |
No. 5 Wisconsin and No. 9 Ohio State are not only playing for the conference title again this Saturday, but both programs have a opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. Needless to say this game I'm betting will be a hard fought grueling event that will see getting points as a golden opportunity. With Ohio State QB JT Barrett at less than 100% with a knee injury , I expect his team will be at a disadvantage. I know their are skeptics out there that think Wisconsin played a weak schedule this season, but going undefeated is not an easy feat and the Badgers deserve respect. With that said, look for the catalyst of a Wisconsin cover and possible upset to come from , RB Jonathan Taylor, who has run behind a massive offensive line for 1,806 yards and leads the Big Ten in rushing vs a Ohio State side that has shown many defensive deficiencies during this current campaign. note: Wisconsin also leads the Big Ten in fewest rushing yards (80.5), total yards (236.9) and points (12.0) allowed per game. |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL +10 v. Clemson | 3-38 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 47 m | Show | |
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte, NC Miami after a great season, looked a little tired emotionally in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile Clemson, hammered South Carolina , solidifying their chances among the pundits at a repeat College play off appearance. However, it must be noted that .800 or better teams off a chalk loss and than going to a conference championship game are 8-0 SU and 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. With that said, what 'm betting happened to Miami Fl last week, was that they were in a look ahead situation, and completely overlooked their opponent . Now wide awake and ready to compete, I'm betting they give Clemson a run for their money. It must also be noted that national champs are 0-4 ATS L/4 in conference tilts if they are favs of 14 points or less. Add to that Mark Richts Miami program has only 1 previous loss by more than 7 points. CLEMSON is 12-25 ATS L/37 after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins . Play on the Miami Fl to cover |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL +10 v. CLEMSON | 3-38 | Loss | -120 | 83 h 32 m | Show | |
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte, NC Miami after a great season, looked a little tired emotionally in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile Clemson, hammered South Carolina , solidifying their chances among the pundits at a repeat College play off appearance. However, it must be noted that .800 or better teams off a chalk loss and than going to a conference championship game are 8-0 SU and 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. With that said, what 'm betting happened to Miami Fl last week, was that they were in a look ahead situation, and completely overlooked their opponent . Now wide awake and ready to compete, I'm betting they give Clemson a run for their money. It must also be noted that national champs are 0-4 ATS L/4 in conference tilts if they are favs of 14 points or less. Add to that Mark Richts Miami program has only 1 previous loss by more than 7 points. CLEMSON is 12-25 ATS L/37 after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins . Play on the Miami Fl to cover |
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12-02-17 | Troy +1.5 v. Arkansas State | 32-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a Troy football program (9-2) that took a big fat cheque from LSU earlier this season to play against them in their own back yard. They not only took that money but they took a SU win as DD dogs.So needless to say this Trojans team is not easily intimidated. With the added revenge factor for Troy as they look to get payback for a ugly loss last year by a 35-3 count, to this same Arkansas State program (7-3), you can bet your bottom dollar we are backing a motivated and talented side on a current 5 game win streak.. TROY is 9-1 ATS L/10 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games/ CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TROY) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Troy to cover |
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12-02-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida -7 | 55-62 | Push | 0 | 75 h 58 m | Show | |
AAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Spectrum Stadium - Orlando, FL The difference between Memphis and UCF comes down to defense. Both can score in bunches, but only one of these teams has something that resembles a defense, and that is the Knights. In their head to head meeting on Sept30 all the intangibles were on display , as UCF punished the Tigers 40-13 in an easy win. The Knights not only ran up 603 yards of total offense to the 396 of the Tigers, but they came up with four takeaways while giving the ball away only once. While some might think revenge is key here in a possible cover for Memphis, and competitive showing or upset, it must also be noted that revenge minded sides, in conference championship tilts are 0-6 SU L/6 when taking on a .916 or better opponent while failing to cover 5 of 6 times. The host in this series is 6-0 ATS L/6 , and I'm betting on the 7th straight cover today and UCF is a perfect 10-0 L/10 SU in this series and have covered 5 straight at home vs Memphis. Play on UCF to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-01-17 | Stanford +4 v. USC | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 59 h 24 m | Show | |
PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, AZ Stanford according to my own data and power rankings have gotten better as this season, has progressed, and are better prepared for a USC team that handily beat them in their first meeting this season in week 2 action. the Cardinal have only lost one game by more than 3 points in their L/18 games overall, and the above mentioned tilt was it.
On the season, the Trojans are averaging only 2.5 ppg more than the Cardinal , and from a cross reference power ranking standpoint are dead even with their underdog foes, making Stanford a viable side to back. The Cardinal HC Shaw is 9-0 SU L/14 when getting points . Cardinal are also 7-0 SU/ATS in conference championship game after winning PAC12 North. USC is 2-8 ATS L/10 Neutral site games.USC is 1-8 ATS L/9 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better.)STANFORD is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 yards/game or more.STANFORD is 31-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better, which happened vs the Irish last week. Play on Stanford to cover |
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11-30-17 | Redskins -2 v. Cowboys | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins are two teams still vying for a wild card spot and this game is important to both teams chances. In their first meeting this season Dallas beat up on the Skins by a 33-19 count. Now with revenge, on board for that defeat they have a good chance of getting their payback with RB Ezekiel Eliiott out of the Cowboys lineup because of suspension. The Boyz are 0-3 ATS since star back was sidelined, and have gained an average of just 246 YPG in those tilts, and are fade material here because of their ineptness. WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS L/16 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last few seasons. DALLAS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game which happened last time out vs the LA Chargers ina ugly DD home loss.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game . Cowboys HC Garrett is 6-24 ATS L/30 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse and is 1-9 ATS L/10 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season . Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens -7 | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
The Baltimore Ravens under HC John Harbaugh , have gone 11-1 SU in night games -- the best mark in the NFL. The Ravens have also won nine consecutive prime-time matchups, also the longest streak in the NFL.Joe Flacco the Baltimore Ravens QB loves to perform under the prime time lights when at home , and is 12-1 SU in those tilts. Flacco has been a TD plus fav 36 times in his career and 32-3 SU in those games and should once again thrive vs a Hosuton D ranked 32nd in the NFL vs the pass. it must also be noted that Baltimore looked good last time out getting shut out win vs Green Bay 23-0 and are well positioned to take out another team with QB problems. Meanwhile, the visiting Texans are trying to be competitive after losing starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice earlier this month . Houston is just 2-8 SU on Mondays and 1-9 ATS and look very much like fade material in this spot. The Texans did beat a lethargic looking Arizona group last time out, but I'm betting their fortunes will be reversed this evening. BALTIMORE is 11-2 ATS L/13 in home games after a win by 21 or more points. BALTIMORE is 4-0 SU L/4 at home in this series. Play on Baltimore to cover |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers +7 | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
The Seattle Seahawks enter this game banged up with multiple injuries, and on a short weeks rest after playing Monday night in a 34-31 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, San Francisco last time out pulled off their first win of the season, and than went on their bye week. Now well rested and with confidence and momentum on their sides I'm betting they give the Hawks more than they may have bargained for. Note: In their first meeting this season Seattle pulled off a 12-9 sleep fest failing to cover as -13.5 point chalk. Historical trend:The Niners are 11-1 ATS L/12 off a victory vs .500 or better side off a Monday night tilt. NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a lower tier team ( 25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 55-23 L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 33 m | Show | |
Carolina except for a few glitches this season has looked a like a solid contender in the NFC and must be respected on this line. The Panthers have played their best defensive football on the road this season and held their L/5 hosts to a season low in yards and have covered 5 of their L/6 away tilts. Both teams are rested so their no advantage for either team from that perspective. The only advantage comes via what is on paper and so far this season on the playing field is the super side. Hit it with CAROLINA. The Jets have lost 12 straight and 1-15 ATS L/16 after a road game in which they allowed at least 7.5 points fewer than their season-to-date average and they are not a double-digit dog . CAROLINA is 33-13 ATS L/46 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season. NFL Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (CAROLINA) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.) are 29-2 winning by an average of 10.8 ppg which qualifies as an viable ATS trend on this chalk line. Play on Carolina to cover |
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11-26-17 | Bears v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 5 m | Show | |
We all know the Eagles bring an explosive offense to this game , but their defense must be respected. Actually Both the Eagles and the Bears are defensively capable, with the Eagles ranking #7 in yards allowed and Chicago ranked No.11 in yards allowed. With that said, I'm expecting a slower game than many might anticipate especially in the 2nd half. This week I wont be surprised if Philly goes into cruise control, takes a big league than milks it slowly for a grinding victory. It must be noted that NFL favs of -13 or more have stayed UNDER the total 9 straight times with a total of 48 or less points . The Bears are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a TD-plus road dog when they are off a loss and facing a team that had more regular season wins the previous season with the combined average score clicking at 36.2 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 UNDER L/13 in home games vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game in the second half of the season with t a combined average of 31.4 ppg scored. NFL team against the total like Philadelphia - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 35-11 under L/25 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-26-17 | Titans v. Colts +3.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -115 | 67 h 42 m | Show | |
The Tennessee Titans will bring with them a nine-year losing streak at Lucas Oil Stadium when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon losing SU 9 straight times .Both teams will be well rested entering the Week 12 matchup. The Colts are coming off a bye and have not played since Nov. 12, when they lost 20-17 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Titans will play on nine days' rest after a Thursday night matchup in Week 11 in which they were embarrassed in a 40-17 loss to the Steelers, and showed me their an over rated team . Meanwhile, Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett is expected to make his 10th start. He began the week in the NFL's concussion protocol . The Indy man under center has actually been impressive and has allowed his team to cover 3 straight games. It must also be noted that the Colts are 10-0 ATs L/10 in the first of consecutive divisional games. I know the Titans took the first meeting between these teams but with revenge on board I'm betting in a reversal of fortunes. TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS L/8 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games vs. struggling teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS L/8 vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season.INDIANAPOLIS is 9-0 ATS L/9 after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games. TENNESSEE is 8-23 ATS (L/31 against conference opponents. TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS L/21 in road lined games. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - revenging a loss against opponent, off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-17 | Texas A&M +10 v. LSU | 21-45 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 57 m | Show | |
LSU showed me their vulnerabilities when they lost to Troy on Sept. 30 to fall to 3-2 on the season. I know they have played much better of late, but I'm still not sold on HC Ed Orgeron and company . Meanwhile, Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat and really needs a win and a competitive showing here today. QUOTE: "I came here to Texas A&M to win football games," Sumlin said. "What we do and how we've done it has been the right way. It will continue to be the right way."END QUOTE. He is a quality coach and top tier recruiter, and I respect his abilities a lot, and I'm betting he has the Aggies ready to compete tonight vs a opponent that despite of a recent 5-0 ATS run is just 4 -16 ATS at home as a favorite off a win. LSU is 2-10 ATS L/12 in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins . CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas A&M - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 67-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas A&M to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-17 | Oregon State v. Oregon -25 | 10-69 | Win | 100 | 58 h 26 m | Show | |
Last season Oregon State took out Oregon by a 34-24 count in their last game of the season, which resulted on the Ducks not getting a bowl bid. It was ugly, and the boosters were in a nasty mood. Now with redemption at hand, and the no mercy rule, thrown out, I expect the Ducks to come out here looking to annihilate their opponent. When their top tier QB Justin Herbert has been under center this season the Ducks average around 48 points per game in offense, as was the case last week in a beat down of pretty good looking Arizona side by a 48-28 count. I expect at least that many points today for Oregon in a complete game one sided victory vs the beavers 118 ranked D, that is allowing 466 YPG. OREGON ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game losing SU by an average of 28.6 ppg. Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-17 | Georgia Southern +6 v. UL-Lafayette | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 70 h 4 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern after being completely asleep at the proverbial wheel, all season long, finally woke up last week, and decided to go on a rampage by destroying South Alabama by a 52-0 count as underdogs. Now behind a revived running game that averaged 5.4 ypg last week, I expect they use the momentum of that win to come out and take down another opponent. Needless to say , interim HC Chad Lundsford ability to wake these kids from their naps, makes me feel confident they can answer the bell again vs a UL Lafayette football program that has been highly inconsistent this season and just 2-2 in their L/4 overall. With that said, I'm recommending we take the points . Note: UL Lafayette is just 3-13 ATS L/16 as home favorites. By the way I know the Georgia Southern D, has been porous at times this season, but LA LAFAYETTE is just 3-13 ATS L/16 in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play and 7-18 ATS L/25 in home games when playing against a lower tier team with a win % of .250 or less. LA LAFAYETTE is 1-11 ATS L/12 in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2. CFB Road underdogs like Georgia Southern - with a lower tier defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 80-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia Southern to cover |
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11-25-17 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +13 | 40-7 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 50 m | Show | |
In between some ugly performances Rutgers has actually played some decent ball this season, and from time to time have looked competitive as wins vs Purdue, Illinois, and Maryland would suggest. Meanwhile, their visiting opponents the Spartans are not the type of team that crushes their opponents, against even those sides that have looked inferior , and have no wins of 10 points or more in conference play this season. I'm betting Rutgers elevates their game looking for an upset and DAntonio and company do what they do best, grind out a slow sleepy win. With that said ,I'm recommending we take the points. MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). MICHIGAN ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 as a road favorite .MICHIGAN ST is 4-15 ATS L/19 in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. CFB home team vs. the money line like RUTGERS - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 29-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team vs. the money line like Rutgers - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rutgers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-17 | Alabama v. Auburn +5 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 80 h 15 m | Show | |
It must be noted that this Alabama group is banged up right now with key defensive deficiencies. Yes, the Tide are deep and another 5 star recruit takes over for the injured player, but theirs a reason why one guy got the start over the other guy. Needless to say, as was the case last week against Mississippi State , the Tide, are currently short handed, and their offense is still not as fluid as it needs to be and must add they are not unbeatable. Despite of my great respect for the Tide, the Auburn football program they play today, are hitting their stride, and looking very much like a contender for the National Championship. Since their early season hard fought loss to Clemson, the offense has jelled , and comes in on a roll, scoring 40 points or more in seven of its last eight games.The Auburn defensive front has also been amazing, and are run stoppers extroidnare – as was the case vs Georgia ( 46 yards) and have not allowed 200 rushing yards on the year – and their secondary is equally brilliant as was evident against stud QB Nick Fitzgerald and the Mississippi State as they held him under a 35% completion rate. In a tilt that could mark a changing in the guard in the SEC , I'm betting Auburn gets us the cover, and are a strong candidate to do the unthinkable , get the outright upset vs Alabama. This game has the feel of a late FG decision, making getting points with Auburn a viable investment option. AUBURN is 14-1 ATS L/15 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and 10-1 ATS L/11 in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game. Nick Saban in his history as a coach has never beaten a .750 or better Auburn squad going 0-4 SU lifetime. CFB home underdogs like Auburn that have scored 40 or more points in each of their L/3 tilts, and facing a team off a win by 3 or more points are a bankroll expanding 20-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team vs. the money line like AUBURN - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 25-6 for a 81% conversion rate dating back 25 seasons. Play on the Auburn Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-17 | Boston College v. Syracuse +3.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
Both starting QBs for Boston College and their hosts Syracuse are expected to miss todays game. Boston without QB Anthony Brown have proven over an over again, that without him under center , moving the ball is like moving a 2000lb rock, which I'm betting will be their downfall today. Add to that Boston College already has a Bowl game locked up, and probably looking ahead to greener pastures , and you have a situation where the home dog will be motivated to prove they are better than some of their recent results suggest and finish off their season on a high note in front of their own alumni. Note: With Dungey out a QB for the Orange , they will concentrate on pounding the ball on the ground, and with that said, it must be noted that BC has allowed 5 ypc, this season and are vulnerable via the opposing ground game. BC has covered on 5 of their L/21 as a road fav vs a team off consecutive losses. CFB home team vs. the money line like Syracuse - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. ( Louisville clobbered Syracuse 56-10 last time out) .\ Play on Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-24-17 | Iowa v. Nebraska +3.5 | 56-14 | Loss | -102 | 56 h 54 m | Show | |
HC Mike Riley is most likely on the way out of the door at Nebraska. However, the old ball coach has a little something left in his proverbial tank, and I'm betting he motivates his downtrodden team to a cover here at home, vs a Iowa football program, that looks to be living on their laurels of a recent upset win vs Ohio State. Since that monumental win the Hawkeyes have lost two straight and have been outscored by a combined 62-29 count. I know Nebraska has also lost two straight but in the past have proven resilient from a ATS standpoint cashing 13 of his L/14 after consecutive losses. NEBRASKA is 29-9 ATS L/38 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.NEBRASKA is 15-3 ATS L/18 after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game.NEBRASKA is 21-8 ATS L/29 after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game. ( Last week the Cornhuskers lost 55-44 to Penn State) Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-24-17 | South Florida +11 v. Central Florida | 42-49 | Win | 100 | 78 h 12 m | Show | |
South Florida (9-1) and UCF (10-0) according to my own power rankings and cross reference matchup systems are very evenly matched and the point spread should be much closer to a one possession spread . With the pressure of staying undefeated a deterrent for UCF, this situation also offers up an opportunity for a strong dog to pull off what would not be a surprising upset. South Florida has conclusively beaten UCF in their L/2 meetings, and today I'm betting they get us the cover on a bloated line again. My own projections estimate that S.Florida will score between 22-28 points which is a good omen , considering the Bulls are 16-4 ATS L/20 in road games when they score 22 to 28 points. CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 87-37 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. South Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-23-17 | Giants +7.5 v. Redskins | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
After watching a motivated victory crumble into a crushing overtime defeat Sunday at New Orleans, the Redskins come into this game in an emotional let down situation, and are now at a disadvantage vs a NY Giants team off a rousing OT win vs KC last week. Add to that the redskins are banged up , After placing four players on injured reserve Tuesday, and will not even attempt a full practice before the game. You can smell trouble brewing on the field for them this week. Look for Eli Manning and company who is 17-8 SU as a starter against Washington to be a catalyst this week. He has completed 493 of 841 passes (59 percent) for 5,934 yards with 28 touchdowns and 23 interceptions vs. the Redskins. He will go against a Redskins' defense has fallen to 31st in points allowed per game. NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons.WASHINGTON is 13-28 ATS L/41 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Redskins are 0-18 ATS L/18 as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game. Five of those 18 games were straight up wins , with only two coming by 3 points. The Giants are 14-0 ATS and 12-2 SU off a home game in which they rushed the ball at least ten more times than their season-to-date average. NFL Underdogs or pick like the Giants - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 50-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Giants to cover |
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11-23-17 | Chargers -2 v. Cowboys | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
Chargers HC Lynn, who played high school football at Texas small-town powerhouse Celina and college football at Texas Tech, said it's one of the two biggest days in the NFL season. So you can imagine how hopped up he is to be here and what a win would mean to him vs the banged up staggering Cowboys. Los Angeles has won four of its last six, and playing at a high level and must be respected here a short road favorites. Meanwhile, Dallas Star running back Ezekiel Elliott (suspension), All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith (back, groin) and the most important part of the defense, linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring), are all out of the lineup making Dallas fade material today. LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games losing SU by an average of 10 ppg. Chargers are 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits to Dallas. NFL Home teams like Dallas - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are 16-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Chargers to cover |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions +3 | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lions were the last team to beat the red hot Minnesota Vikings, back in in Minnesota on Oct 1 ( 14-7). The Lions matchup well against the Vikings according to my own power rankings, as Detroit is bidding for its third sweep of the season series in four years. I'm recommending we take the points with the home team here today on thanksgiving day. DETROIT is 8-1 ATS L/9 in November games over the last few seasons.MINNESOTA is 26-43 ATS L/69 as a road favorite. The Lions are 12-0 ATS/SU on turf when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards winning SU by an average of 9.17 ppg and covering by more than 8.79 ppg. The Vikings are 0-14 ATS / 3-11 SU on the road off a TD-plus win in which they did not score in the first quarter with the 3 SU wins coming by 3, 3 and 4 points. NFL team LIONS- mistake-free team ( 1.25 TO/G or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G or less forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 39-15 ATS for a 72% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys +4 | 37-9 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 13 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys cannot really afford another loss, at this juncture of the season, and will be hell bent on taking out the red hot Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday night deep in the heart of Texas. Add to that the Cowboys have revenge on board for last seasons divisional play off loss, to these same Eagles and you have a hyped up and desperate side to back. It must be noted that the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS L/7 on Sundays playing with revenge with 6 of those games SU victories and are 31-16 ATS L/47 as home dogs. PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play.DALLAS is 34-18 ATS L/52 after a loss by 14 or more points which happened last time out. NFL Road favorites like Philadelphia - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 19-45 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-17 | Bucs v. Dolphins | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 90 h 4 m | Show | |
TB look like viable bets here as they come off a 15-10 win vs the Jets last week. I expect them to carry that confidence of that victory here this week, into this tilt vs a Miami side that has been outgained in 7 of its L/9 games by an average of 66 ypg. The Fins are worse than their 4-5 record, and must not be over estimated in their ability to cover or win here even at home. The Fish have failed to cover 5 straight in this series, and are 1-8 ATS overall. Look for Buccaneer B Ryan Fitzpatrick to just enough to get team to the promised land in game of two downtrodden sides. MIAMI is 3-12 ATS L/15 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game .TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS L/9 in weeks 10 through 13 over the last few seasons.TAMPA BAY is 17-6 ATS L/23 in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games . NFL team vs the money line like Miami - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 3-29 SU dating back 24 seasons for a go against SU conversion rate of 91% for bettors. NFL Home teams like Miami - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 18-51 ATS since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Vikings | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 51 m | Show | |
Its taken me some time to be persuaded that the Rams are for real. Well this week, I've finally come to the conclusion they are. After consistently beating up on opponents winning 4 straight and outscoring their L/3 opponents by a 117- 24 count their cross reference power rankings have skyrocketed. With that said I;m sold on the Rams abilities and will back them today vs a what I still believe is a over rated Minnesota Vikings group that showed some vulnerabilities defensively last week by allowing Washington to put 30 points on the board against them. I'm also betting Case Keenum the upstart QB of the Vikings does not matchup well against this Rams smash mouth defense very well, and could find himself on his back quite a bit this week. NFL team vs the money line like the LA Rams - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 25-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-19-17 | Redskins v. Saints OVER 51 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 16 m | Show | |
This game looks very much like it will see a lot of points put on the board this week in the Super Dome. Both teams rank in the top 10 in passing yards, and will be ready to unload in a big way here this week. Dating back to the 2015 season the Skins have gone over in 12 of their L/15 road games. I know the Saints D, is much improved, but over the L/3 seasons Saints home games have seen a combined average 63 ppg go on the board, and no one should be surprised by another huge output here this Sunday. Last week Washington put 30 points on the board against the Vikings 4th ranked D, so based on their prowess packing on the points here will not be as difficult as some might think for the Skins. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return.WASHINGTON is 11-1 OVER L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game.NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER L/9 in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season .WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game ( All the combined averages of these games went over todays total) The Saints are 20-0 OU L/20 off a game as a favorite when facing a non-divisional opponent that has averaged fewer than 5.2 rushing first downs per game. the last 10 games have all eclipsed the 51 point plateau. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games have seen the OVER convert 24 of the L/29 times dating back 10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-18-17 | Nevada v. San Diego State -16 | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 87 h 60 m | Show | |
Nevada owns a 2-8 record on the season, thanks in part to what must be considered an atrocious defense, especially on the road where they have allowed an average of 40.4 ppg. The Wolfpacks only saving grace has been a sometimes explosive offense, but today against a very strong San Diego State D, allowing an average of just 18.8 ppg their in big trouble vs a team that is 18-0 SU and 12-1 ATS L/13 when playing against a team with a losing record , with he average score clicking in at SD St 37.4 opposition 8.5. Add to that Rocky Longs, great late season runs of late that have seen him go 9-0 SU 8-0-1 ATS in his L/4 games of the season when coming off a DD ATS win which happened last time out in a 52-7 ATS blasting of San Jose State. No mercy rule in effect here tonight. CFB road team vs. the money line like Nevada - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 1-34 SU losing SU by an average of 26.1 ppg. CFB home team vs. the money line like San Diego State - team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 29-1 SU winning by an average of 24.2 ppg. Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-18-17 | NC State +2 v. Wake Forest | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
No. 19 North Carolina State wants this game badly and is on the verge of something special if they can get a 9 win season, stay in the top 25 and garner a big pay day with a top tier Bowl appearance. Needless to say North Carolina State is very motivated entering this tilt against a over rated Wake Forest program that despite of a explosive 64-43 win last week, vs Syracuse still allowed a whopping 621 yards on defense, and in the game before that allowed 710 yards to Notre Dame. I just don't like them today vs a a football program that has owned them of late winning three straight SU/ATS by an average of 22 points per game and are 8-1 L/9 in this series when the Deacons are off a win. I'm also betting on Wake Forest to be in an emotional letdown state , after last week astounding come back win. WAKE FOREST is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Demon Deacons - in a game involving two good rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games are 13-44 ATS for a76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on N.C State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-18-17 | Rice v. Old Dominion -8.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 47 m | Show | |
I've kept an eye on Old Dominion , as I have been looking for improvement over the season, and I can see their on a upward trajectory. Last week vs FIU as DD road dogs, they took a 37-30 win in a game they actually dominated despite of the slight 7 point difference. The Monarchs freshman QB Steven Williams, continues to improve as their starting QB was injured earlier in the season. He had a 168 yards rushing, and 3 TDS in last weeks game, and give Old dominion the edge this week, vs a Rice team that can be best described as futile, allowing 40 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. Note:OLD DOMINION is 7-0 ATS L/7 vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game Last year winning SU by an average of 13.7 ppg. the Owls lost to the Monarchs by a 45-42 count as 7 point favorites, and look like weak dogs this week vs a Old Dominion side that is 16-0 SU L/16 as chalk, and 10--1-1 L/12 against the spread. CFB Road underdogs like Rice - lower tier team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-18-17 | Pittsburgh +15.5 v. Virginia Tech | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 12 m | Show | |
After back to back losses to Miami Fl and Georgia Tech I'm sure this Virginia Tech Hokies group feels downtrodden. With really nothing left o play for I cannot see them performing at optimal speed here today giving credence to my recommendation on taking a Pittsburgh team that needs a win badly to get a Bowl invite. In the past no matter which team has been better at the time, it seems the Panthers have found a way to be competitive as their 9-1 ATS and 6-3 SU record in this series would indicate. Overall Pittsburghs been a tough out on the road of late cashing 6 of their L/7 away as dogs, and are 6-2 ATS L/8 as conference dogs of 13 points or more,. CFB road team like Pittsburgh - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 95-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors . Play on Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-18-17 | Cincinnati -3 v. East Carolina | 20-48 | Loss | -120 | 100 h 44 m | Show | |
E.Carolina has struggled for most of this season , thanks to a defense, that has allowed 45 ppg during their 2017 campaign , and also a offense that has generated just 23.8 ppg. I know visiting Cincinnati may not inspire bettors but this is a very winnable game for them. The Bearcats have shown life, and some upward trajectory in games vs Navy, SMU and a recent upset win vs Tulane, and are a viable side to back in this tilt of downtrodden sides. In other words , the lesser of two evils, is the choice here today. ( Lay the FG with the Bearcats) E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return losing SU by an average of 11.2 ppg. E CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63.E CAROLINA is 2-12 ATS L/14 against conference opponents and 0-6 ATS L/6 in November games .E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS L/9after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Carolina - after playing a game at home, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-18-17 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 72 h 18 m | Show | |
Texas since their ugly opening loss to Maryland have steadily improved under Tom Herman, and I don't think we have seen them at their very best quite yet and could easily see them in top form today as they need one more win to secure a bowl bid. Meanwhile, West Virginia already has a bowl game in their December plans, and may not be as motivated as their opponents. With that said, I'm betting we have an edge vs a W.Virginia side that has not faired well as home chalk of late vs .500 or above conference opposition going 3-11 ATS . Meanwhile, the LongHorns HC Herman is 8-1 ATS L/7 as a underdog lifetime and has covered 11 of his L/13 vs a power 5 football programs and proved their metal in a recent road win vs Iowa State a home win vs KState, and two hard fought close losses to Oklahoma State by 3 points and a 5 point loss to Oklahoma. Note: My own projections tell me Texas will score 22 points or more, which is a good omen, as TEXAS is 6-0 ATS L/6 when they score 22 to 28 points over the last few seasons. CFB road team like the Longhorns - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-17-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky +3 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 60 h 41 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky does not look like the powerhouse it has been over the last few seasons, but Middle Tennessee State according to my own cross reference power ranking suggest that neither are the Blue raiders. Both sides have identical records . I know that Midd Tenn State has won 2 straight games convincingly , but those were against lowly UTEP and Charlotte. Meanwhile, W.Kentucky played Vanderbilt and Marshall very tough in back to back games, and despite of losing were looking better than the pundits might have you expect. Yes, the Hilltoppers as mentioned above may not be as potent some of their past incarnations, but are very viable home underdogs in this spot and have more than 50% chance of pulling off a straight up win. MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-9 ATS L/10 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins W.Kentucky is 6-2 ATS L/8 at home while Midd Tenn State is 1-6 ATS L/7 CUSA road tilts. W KENTUCKY is 22-8 ATS L/30 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | 17-40 | Win | 103 | 37 h 33 m | Show | |
Tennessee enters this game with 4 straight wins as does their hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers. but according to my own cross reference power rankings and head to head matchup stats the Steelers are superior side. Steelers HC Tomlin is 13-3 ATS L/16 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points with the average score clicking in at Steelers 27.8 opposition 18 . That number is very close to my own projections which makes the Steelers in my humble opinion a viable wagering option in this spot. It must also be noted that Thursday night favs are 18-0 SU L/18 and 16-1-1 ATS in a non division tilt with a total of 41 or more attached to it. Tennessee is 1-6-2 ATS L/9 vs NFC north opposition, and their QB Marcus Mariota is just 1-7 ATS away L/8 off a win.
NFL Underdogs or pick like Tennessee - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan +3.5 v. Miami-OH | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 11 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan thanks to a usually staunch D, has been very competitive all season long, and must not be underestimated as dog this Wednesday night despite of a sub par 3-7 record. Meanwhile, Miami O, despite of a 6-4 record has been very inconsistent this season, as recent losses vs downtrodden Kent State and Bowling Green demonstrates. HC of E. Michigan Creighton is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return.E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS L/6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 8-1 ATS L/9 as a road underdog. CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami Ohio - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 15-43 ATS the L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors. Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 46.5 | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 56 m | Show | |
After getting crushed for 50 plus points by Philadelphia last time out, I'm betting the Broncos , settle down and go back to basics this week and pound the ball on the ground consistently in an effort to stay competitive and eat clock against the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. The usually staunch Denver D, looked tanked last week, as they were playing their third straight road game. Now back in the high altitudes of the Rockies their D should be ready to get back to what they do best, and that is partake in smash mouth football. Meanwhile, the Patriots, after a slow start on defense, are starting to jell into top form, allowing 14, 17,7, 13 points respectively in their L/4 ( 12.75 ppg) and will give the offensively challenged Broncos all they can handle this week. With that said, I'm expecting a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers do. Note: AFC dogs, of 10 points or less, who gave up 50 points or more in their L/game on the road, have gone under 9 of the L/10 times dating back 10 seasons. DENVER is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 38.1 ppg going on the board.DENVER is 13-3 UNDER L/16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average of 37 ppg going on the board. NFL Road teams against the total like New England - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record ARE 24-3UNDER during the L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced after 8+ games, after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 26-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. NFL Home teams against the total like Denver - off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 22-4 UNDER dating 5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for Totals bettors. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Denver - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 22-4 UNDER for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-12-17 | Cowboys +3 v. Falcons | 7-27 | Loss | -117 | 118 h 52 m | Show | |
The Cowboys enter this game against the Falcons having won three in a row–all by double-digits and by a combined 55 points. I was not a believer in them for much of this season, but mind is changing quickly. Even without star running back Elliott( if he does not get another injunction on his suspension) are still a team to be reckoned with, as QB Dak Prescott has proven immune to a sophomore jinx. The Atlanta team the Cowboys are playing are not the same team that made it to last years Super Bowl and the team as whole is struggling, especially on offense which is a surprise. The Falcons have been held to less than 20 points four times in their L/8 games, which is not a good omen vs a Dallas D, that not allowed more than 19 points in their L/3 games. Take the points. Atlanta HC Quinn is 4-16 ATS L/20 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. HC Garrett is 6-0 ATS L/6 after outrushing opponent by 50 or more yards in 3 straight games. Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. NFL Home teams like Atlanta - good rushing team (4.5 YPR or more) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors. Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-12-17 | Chargers +4.5 v. Jaguars | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 116 h 39 m | Show | |
The San Diego Chargers have been extremely competitive all season long, and were within striking distance against the New England Pats last time out losing by 8 points, which ended a three game win streak. Now off a bye week, I'm betting the Chargers will be extremely recharged and competitive this week, and could even spring the out right upset against a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Jacksonville Jags side. I know the Jags are off two impressive DD wins but they have not been good bets in the past after those type of results as is obvious by the following trends. JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS L/12 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 4-14 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. LA CHARGERS is 11-2 ATS L/13 in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game after 8+ games . Chargers are 7-2 SU/ATS L/9 meetings in this series and 2-0 SU/ATS in the 2 most recent meetings over the L/3 seasons.Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a win. Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Chargers - off a road loss, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 108-61 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a long term 64% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams like the Chargers - off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-12-17 | Vikings v. Redskins +1.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -115 | 115 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not buying into Minnesota being viable road chalk here this week. I know they have won four straight games, but the wins came against Green Bay after star QB Rodgers was knocked out of the game with a collarbone injury, and against inconsistent Chicago and Baltimore sides, and lowly Cleveland. Now they have been tagged with the fav role, against a Washington side that maybe starting to jell in a big way , after holding Seattle to 14 points on the road in a 17-14 come from behind victory,. Andy yes, I do know the Vikings are off a bye week, but in the past they have not taken advantage of the extra rest as is evident by 1-6 ATS record in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.Redskins are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS L/13 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season.MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better. NFL Underdogs or pick like Washington - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after allowing 14 points or less last game are a long term strong proposition 129-77 for a 63% conversion rate for bettors dating back 34 seasons. Play on the Washington Red Skins to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-12-17 | Bengals +4.5 v. Titans | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 114 h 58 m | Show | |
Tennessee has been playing better ball of late winning three straight, but they have not always dealt well with success in the past, even when playing against lower tier teams and have been less than successful from a ATS perspective, as the following data/trends will explain.TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS L/7 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons and 1-14 ATS L/15 against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season and 0-6 ATS L/6 vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing 12 or more yards per return . In their history this franchise has continually under achieved for their betting backers going just 14-32 ATS L/46 times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Tonight I'm betting on a fast improving Bengals side that has quietly won 3 of their L/5 games to not go down without a fight here and get us the all important cover. TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS L/29 against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.Titans are 11-36-4 ATS in their last 51 vs. AFC.Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Bengals - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 70-36 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams like Cincinnati- off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-12-17 | Browns +13 v. Lions | 24-38 | Loss | -120 | 113 h 53 m | Show | |
Lions are off a big win on Monday night football vs GB and on short rest, could easily be in a letdown spot vs a side I'm sure their not getting up for. I know Cleveland does not inspire bettors, but they are off a bye week and on fresh legs and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this line. It must be noted that Lions are 0-6 ATs L/6 against rested opposition with a less than .500 record, and have FAILED to cover 16 of their L/23 as 8 or more point chalk. Considering 0-5 or worse NFL teams are 18-3-1 ATS L/22 in games following a bye week, I'm betting we have value with this ugly dog. So folks, please just plug your noses, hold your breath and take the points with the Browns this Sunday. NFL Road teams like the Browns - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 49-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72%conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick like Cleveland - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-10 ATS L/34 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-11-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -7 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 111 h 30 m | Show | |
Oklahoma now 8-1 on the season showed themselves to be one of the most potent offensive teams in the Big 12 last week and maybe the nation as they went into Stillwater and took a 62-52 shootout affair vs Oklahoma State. While some teams might tank after an emotional slugfest like that I'm betting instead the Sooners will be motivated to get the win here tonight as they look to make up for a shocking loss to a Iowa State side, that they may have under estimated, back on Oct 7. A victory here for Oklahoma vs a 8-1 TCU program ,that also lost to Iowa State 14-7, will also pad their resume, as both the Sooners and Horned Frogs must still be considered outside contenders for the national championship play off. Another loss for either team and their dream is over, so this is a must win situation for both sides. Here in their own building in front of what will be a frenzied home crowd I feel the Sooners have the edge. By the way folks I respect TCU and their vaunted D a great deal, but theirs an old adage, that goes something like this . Defense wins championships , but offense win games. Whether you agree or feel this statement is irrelevant or not.... I still say- Advantage Sooners via the arm of Baker Mayfield and the nations best offensive line. OKLAHOMA is 8-1 ATS L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record , with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 16.3 ppg.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. TCU is 2-11 ATS L/13 in games played on a grass field, losing by an average of 9.4 ppg. CFB Home favorites like Oklahoma - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 45-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team vs. the money line like the Sooners - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less), after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 52-17 SU L/25 seasons with the average combined margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg,( 33.4 to 24.7) Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover |
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11-11-17 | Tennessee +11 v. Missouri | 17-50 | Loss | -105 | 122 h 44 m | Show | |
Missouri has beaten up on three straight teams, two of them came against lower tier opponents UConn and Idaho, and the last time out against a Florida Gators program that looks like they have given up on their season. Previous to that they lost 4 straight against better programs , like Auburn, Georgia, Purdue, and Kentucky. Meanwhile as bad as Tennessee has been they have been competitive for the most part this season, and matchup well vs a defenseless one way Missouri squad that depends on their offense alone to win games. Only Alabama has put more than 29 points on the board in their L/8 vs the Vols ,a D that is capable of slowing down Missouri in this spot. I know old Rocky Top might not inspire bettors this season, but my own numbers and projections suggest this game is settled by a TD or less making this a viable underdog betting situation. TENNESSEE is 18-7 ATS L/25 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game. Tennessee is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 meetings in this series. Home favorites Missouri - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 108-166 ATS for a 61% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons. Play on the Tennessee Vols to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-11-17 | New Mexico +19 v. Texas A&M | 14-55 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 7 m | Show | |
Kevin Sumlin the HC of Texas A&M is in trouble. His team since their opener against UCLA , when they blew a huge 34 point lead, and than lost , has been reeling. It was obvious during the season despite of top tier recruiting, this was a team with little chemistry and focus. That was never more evident than their recent back to back home losses vs Mississippi State and Auburn by DD beat downs. Now the mood is dire to say the least, and these young men in the Texas A&M football program looked disinterested , which does not bode well for them coming into this non conference game with little meaning attached to it. I know New Mexico may not inspire many bettors with their recent performances, which includes 11 turnovers in their L/4 games, but they actually matchup well from a ATS perspective vs a side like Texas A&M. I expect the Lobos via a solid ground attack to just be happy eating clock up and here and pounding the rock , which will allow them to stay within the number. Note:TEXAS A&M is 12-29 ATS L/41 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game. In the past its not like Sumlin seems to get his team up for lower tier competition and has a history of seeing his team play down to their opponents on a consistent basis ,as this trend will point out. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return. TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8 in the second half of the season dating back to last season.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS L/6off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival .NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite CFB Home favorites like Texas A&M - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 37-75 ATS for a long term go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors. Play on New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-11-17 | USC v. Colorado +13.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -104 | 78 h 48 m | Show | |
USC is off two impressive wins vs two over rated Arizona teams in their L/2 trips to gridiron and now the media/pundits and linesmakers are in love with them again. I know their opponents today Colorado have not been that impressive this season with a 5-5 record, but must not be underestimated especially here in their last home game of the season. In the past the Buffs have been a good bet in their last tilt as hosts cashing 10 of their L/11 tickets for their backers . It must also be noted that the Trojans are just 0-10 ATS L/10 on the road as DD chalk against .500 or greater opposition. CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like USC- viable team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 20-57 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors. Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-11-17 | Georgia v. Auburn +3 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 120 h 39 m | Show | |
Auburn (7-2) before this season started was high on my list of sleeper teams to fight for a national championship and nothing has changed my mind. The loss at Clemson earlier this season was a heartbreaker, and the loss vs LSU a shocker because of a lack of focus in the end half. But do not be fooled by those results as this is an extremely strong Auburn football program at the moment and they had the opportunity to win both those tilts . I know undefeated 9-0 Georgia continues to get a great deal of accolades, and are an extremely competent team with a big win vs top tier Notre Dame , but I will not be surprised if their undefeated streak comes to an abrupt end here this Saturday. Look for a hard fought tilt, that has the feel of an upset written all over it. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here.It’s a great opportunity for Auburn to climb back into the College Football Playoff conversation and expect they will play like their lives depend on it this week. Take the points. AUBURN is 13-1 ATS L/14 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and is 9-1 ATS L/10 in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game. CFB home team vs. the money line like Auburn - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 23-6 SU the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate, thus getting points here based on this trend alone makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-11-17 | Iowa +13 v. Wisconsin | 14-38 | Loss | -115 | 119 h 4 m | Show | |
Iowa is off a resounding 55-24 win vs Ohio State last week, and have been competitive all season long, losing by just 2 points to Penn State at home and one score ( TD losses) to Northwestern and Michigan State on the road in hard fought 17-10 defensive affairs In their only 3 losses on the campaign . With that said, I'm betting on Iowa having the defensive strength allowing just 18.1 ppg to be competitive against Wisconsin this week at just under a two TD dog. Note: IOWA is 14-4 ATS L/18 after scoring 50 points or more last game .Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a huge beat down of Indiana last week, by a 45-17 count, but have been bad bets in the past ATS under those circumstances as they are just 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after a win by 28 or more points and 1-9 ATS L/10 after a cover as a double digit favorite. Wisconsin is perfect so far on the season, but I'm betting if their perfect season continues it will not come without difficulties vs a under rated and under appreciated foe. IOWA is 25-5 ATS L/30 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game. Iowa has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series. Badgers are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Play on Iowa to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-11-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Ole Miss -18.5 | 22-50 | Win | 100 | 113 h 55 m | Show | |
My own projections make this a huge win for Ole Miss. Actually one of my biggest of the season behind an SEC team that is improving as their campaign has progressed. I'm estimating that Ole Miss wins this game by 24 plus points on a value line. LA Lafayette D , has allowed 37.4 ppg on the season against average opponents for the most part , while Ole Miss has averaged more than 42 ppg in offensive production at home. Here today I will not be surprised by a 50 point out put by the Rebs and subsequent cover vs a side that has averaged about 21 ppg in offense on the road. |
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11-11-17 | NC State v. Boston College +3 | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
NC State are off two hard fought grueling affairs vs Notre Dame and than Clemson last week. Now deflated and in a let down situation they look vulnerable vs a rested Boston College team that is playing its best football in years.The Eagles destroyed and owned Florida State 35-3 before their bye week, beating the Seminoles for the first time since 2009 and becoming the first team to hold FSU without a touchdown since 2008 and the first to keep the 'Noles under 10 points since '09. Also N.C. State's has had problems in the past vs BC . The Wolfpack offense has also struggled vs Boston College. Considering the Wolfpack are dealing with nagging injuries to running back Nyheim Hines ( ankle injury ) and versatile back Jaylen Samuels missing plays after he was banged up in the game against Clemson, things look dire for them this week, and if they get the win it won't come easy and they won't I'm betting cover the number as road favs
NC STATE is 7-20 ATS L/27 as a road favorite of 7 points or less. CFB Road favorites NC State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 8-31 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 80% for bettors. Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-10-17 | Washington v. Stanford +6 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 64 h 44 m | Show | |
Stanford despite of a 6-3 record including last weeks 24-21 loss to Washington State is a team that must be respected as home underdogs. I know their opponents Washington are highly rated, but I'm not that impressed by their resume, despite of the pundits being in love with them and feeling they deserve national play off recognition. With that said, I'm betting on a revenge minded Stanford crew that lost to Washington last season by a humiliating 44-6 score to be hell bent on pay back and knocking the Huskies off their perch. It must be noted that Washington is only 11-34 SU L/45 on the road vs above .500 foes, while the Cards are 7-0 ATS L/7 as conference home dogs, and 7-1 ATS overall as 4 or more point dogs, and an amazing 13-0 SU L/13 following a SU favorite loss with HC Shaw at the helm, including 11-0 SU/ATS L/11.Shaw is also 6-0 ATS L/6 after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach and is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. STANFORD is 16-5 ATS L/21 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS L/17 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game which happened against Oregon last time out in a 38-3 win. CFB Road favorites like Washington - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 13-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors. Play on Stanford to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-09-17 | Georgia Southern +17.5 v. Appalachian State | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show | |
App State no longer looks like a top tier program. Yes, their still to respected because of pedigree and the recruiting is still decent, but they have recently lost their last two games as favorites and once against look like they are being over rated as they have been out yarded in 4 of their L/5 games. I know Georgia Southern may not inspire bettors, but under new HC Chad Lundsford, who is 2-0 ATS, they have gradually played better ball , and considering their top tier ability to run the ball, always remain a dangerous underdog, especially vs a DD line like this. APPALACHIAN ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game and 2-12 ATS L/14 in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.APPALACHIAN ST is 3-13 ATS L/16 in home games after the first month of the season . CFB Home favorites like App State - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are just 37-75 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia Southern to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-08-17 | Toledo v. Ohio +4 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
The Bobcats enter this game with a explosive offense that has put 40 or more points on the board in 3 straight games, and must not be underestimated at home as dogs. I know Toledo is a top tier MAC team, but they are off a grueling hard fought 27-17 win vs Northern Illinois last week and could easily be in a letdown spot here this Wednesday night and go to 1-5 ATS L/6 after taking on NIU. OHIO U is 7-1 ATS in games played on turf this season Ohio HC .Solich is 13-4 ATS L/17 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season and is 5-0 SU/ATS in his L/5 home game as dog and have covered 4 straight as conference home dogs. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-20 ATS L10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | 17-28 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs head to Texas this weekend to face a Dallas Cowboys team that is 4-3 on the season, and showing a lot of inconsistencies. Tonight against the Chiefs I'm betting the home teams problems will be amplified as key offensive cog Boyz RB Elliott is expected to miss for the first time this week as he begins his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy. Needless to say the Cowboys offense will be muted and the flip side I'm betting the D will also get slashed, as Dallas has had big problems with explosive offenses so far this season and top tier quarterbacks . The Rams' Jared Goff and the Packers' Aaron Rodgers ripped apart the Cowboys secondary in back-to-back losses a few weeks back. That's not a good omen for Dallas vs Chiefs man under center Smith, who has passed for 2,181 yards and 16 TDs with no interceptions this season. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DALLAS has been unable to take advantage of leaky Ds, and are 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game.KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 Last few seasons. The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS covering by 8.59 ppg on the road when the line is within three of pick after a home win in which they were outgained. Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 17 m | Show | |
Seattle has owned sub par .600 or less opposition at home, going 29-2 SU L/31 only failing to cover in 8 of those tilts , and are 14-1 ATS against these type of foes looking to reap revenge like Washington. It's never easy travelling from east to west, and I'm betting the Redskins are at a disadvantage from a body clock standpoint. With both teams operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, Seattle 4 straight wins - Washington 1-3 L/4/0-4 ATS, it will be an easy decision to take the home favorite at a TD or less. WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games off 2 straight losses against division rivals.SEATTLE is 14-3 ATS L/17 in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The Seahawks are 17-1 ATS and 18-0 SU as a favorite on turf after a game in which they had at least 290 passing yards of passing yards with 17 of the 18 games seeing victories by a TD or more. Play on the Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants +4 | 51-17 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 41 m | Show | |
Meet the NFL flavor of the year. LA Rams - asking price is laying 3.5 points on the road. Despite of all the giddiness surround the Rams I'm not buying into what the pundits/linesmakers are offering at this time, and feel like the price is a little steep. I know the Rams are off a bye and previous to that pitched a 33-0 shutout against Arizona, but it must be noted that a team coming off a shut out of an opponent and than are coming off a bye have failed cover 8 of the L/10 times. Meanwhile, the Gmen are also off a bye and in the past have been extremely capable playing with rest winning 6 of 7 times straight up. I know the Giants may not inspire a lot of bettors and could be in the midst of down season, but they are still in league with strong parity. Remember the old saying folks" Any given Sunday ". Note: Giants -QB Elie Manning is 5-0 SU/ATS in his career vs NFL West oppostion and the Giants are 7-0 SU L/7 in this series. LA RAMS is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better.NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. The Giants are 16-0 ATS covering by an average of 7.41 ppg as a dog after a game in which they benefitted from at least 95 penalty yards. The SU record was 11-6 but none of the losses came by more than 3 points. NFL Road favorites like the Rams - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 18-45 ATS for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 34 seasons.LA RAMS is 2-11 ATS L/13 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. NFL team like the NY Giants - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP), after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 45-17 ATS L/34 seasons for a long term 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Giants to cover |
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11-05-17 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 43.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 70 h 46 m | Show | |
The Carolina Panthers D, is currently looking like a top tier unit, on 3 different occasions they have held their opponent to FG in wins, and they have not allowed a offensive Touchdown in their L/8 quarters of football allowing an average of 17.7 ppg on the season. Meanwhile, the offense is sputtering and have averaged just 18.5 ppg on the season, . On the flipside their opponents the Atlanta Falcons do not look as prolific offensively as they did last season, and are averaging just 21.9 ppg. On the brighter side their D, is playing better than last season, and allowing 4 ppg less then the previous campaign and only once have allowed more than 23 points in a game this season. These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings. NFL NFC South Division teams have gone under in 15 of their L/16 when the home team is favored by 8 points or less and the Total is less than 56. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER L/6 after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread with a combined average of 38 ppg going on the board. CAROLINA is 24-7 UNDER L/31 off a road win against a division rival with a combined average of 36.9 ppg going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Atlanta - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 37-12 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 26 m | Show | |
The TB Bucs may not inspire bettors , but they are an interesting and under rated under performing group that can move the ball in explosive fashion when in a groove behind QB James Winston and rank second in the NFL in passing yards per game (295.4) to New England (302.1).They averaged 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Bills but then were held out of the end zone in a 17-3 home loss to Carolina last week, the first time they failed to score a touchdown since James Winston's arrival in 2015. However with that said I'm betting this TB group that is 5-2 in the stats battles this season will bounce back in a big way this Sunday in the Bayou vs what I'm starting to feel maybe a over rated Saints side. TB is 9-3 ATS L/12 as away dog of 7 points or more. TAMPA BAY is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games with games average point margin clicking in at around a FG. NFL Underdogs or pick like TB - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 96-53 ATS last 34 seasons for a long term automatic 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the TB Bucs to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-05-17 | Broncos +8 v. Eagles | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 25 m | Show | |
Denver has really disappointed a lot of people this season, but when your using a young QB like Trevor Siemian that is still trying to learn a system problems are going to rear their ugly head and they have. That's why the Broncos have said, that they will go with Osweiler a QB that has won 13 of his 21 NFL starts in this Sundays tilt vs the Eagles. I know the Eagles have looked like juggernauts, and are 7-1 on the season. But today their going to face a desperate team, with bad intentions and I'm betting if the Eagles can pull of the victory it won't come easily. Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. NFL Road teams like Denver - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, with a losing record on the season are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors thanks to bloated over done lines. Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-17 | Central Florida v. SMU +14.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 53 m | Show | |
The SMU Mustangs have come a long way and are really forming into a very capable football program with an explosive offense, that can be a menace for most teams in this nation including the red hot undefeated UCF Knights who are ranked 15th in the country . With that said, and despite of their record, I myself still have some doubts about, UCF despite of some decent wins against some pretty good teams, even though these said teams are still not of the top tier variety . Now here as 14 plus point road favs the Knights maybe getting just a bit to much love from the lines-makers considering how explosive their opponents the Mustangs can be offensively, making the home dog a viable SU or back door opportunist here in a home game that will see them and their fans sky high with enthusiasm. This place will be rocking and a upset is not out of the question and a cover a higher probability than many might think possible. UCF is 2-10 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point conference favs. CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-17 | Colorado State -2.5 v. Wyoming | 13-16 | Loss | -115 | 121 h 19 m | Show | |
Make no mistake despite of losing last week to Air Force , Colorado State are still the most explosive team in the Mountain West Conference this season, and I'm betting we see them at their very best this week in rebound mode. They have won 3 of their L/4 on the road, and actually did not look completely out of place vs Alabama in their lone road loss ( 23-41) Meanwhile, Wyoming off a huge revenger last week where they exerted a great deal of energy in a merciless DD win vs New Mexico, by a 42-3 count, could easily find themselves drained and susceptible to being beaten up on themselves this week. I mean these kids play like their hair was on fire and won't be surprised if their spent. COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games over the last 2 seasons. Road favorites like Colorado State - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are a long term good bet going 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-17 | Hawaii +7.5 v. UNLV | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 3 m | Show | |
UNLV is off a huge upset win vs Fresno State last week, winning by a 26-16 count, as 21.5 underdogs. The Bulldogs looked completely drained after pulling off an upset of their own vs San Diego State the previous week, and Rebels took advantage of the situation. Now in another emotional letdown scenario I'm betting its UNLV's turn to suffer . Look for a Hawaii team that despite of struggling on offense and losing to pretty good San Diego State program ,actually did not look as bad as I thought they would, and will now be well prepared to make a game of this after a facing last weeks very physical defensive opponent. What I' saying is look for the Warriors very capable offense to tee off in a big way here , vs a D, that allowed Utah State to pound them for 52 points the week before last. UNLV is 2-13 ATS L/15 off a road win against a conference rival . CFB road team Hawaii - with an excellent offense - averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 23-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-17 | Ole Miss +3.5 v. Kentucky | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 78 h 7 m | Show | |
Ole Miss might not get a lot of respect from bettors this week, as they have now lost 5 of their L/6 overall, including a 38-37 loss to Arkansas last time out, but according to my power rankings and cross reference matchup stats, the Rebs actually matchup well against this type of opponent. Meanwhile, Kentucky is off an emotional win vs long time nemesis Tennessee last week, and could easily be in a letdown state coming into this tilt vs a hungry opponent. It must also be noted that despite of their 6 wins the Wildcats have been out yarded by 106 ypg in their L/3 games and are a very over rated team at the moment. KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games losing SU by just under 20 ppg. OLE MISS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. In KENTUCKY's L/24 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play they have been outscored by a 43 to 22.8 average score. HC Stoops of Kentucky is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse . CFB Home favorites like Kentucky - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 11-33 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Ole Miss Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-17 | Iowa State +2.5 v. West Virginia | 16-20 | Loss | -105 | 117 h 43 m | Show | |
Iowa State is the real deal, behind one of the better defenses in the Big 12 as they proved last week in a win vs ranked TCU by a 14-7 count as 7 point home dogs. They also proved a lot to me in that tilt, and I'm betting they still have enough fuel in the tank to slow West Virginia down this week. Meanwhile, W.Virginia despite a explosive offense are a team that lacks a solid defense, and has allowed 34, 31, 35, 36, and 50 points in their L/5 games and according to my own projections Iowa State will have a similar plus offensive out put here, which gives them a great chance for a SU upset considering how staunch their D has been. IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att dating back to last season.IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS L/15 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .W VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS L/14 after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. CFB team like West Virginia - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 8-35 ATS L/5 seasons or a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors. CFB road team like Iowa State - after going under the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 51-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover |
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11-04-17 | Charlotte +10 v. Old Dominion | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Old Dominions defense is atrocious having allowed 53,38,58,35,35, 35 points respectively which makes them weak DD favorites. I know Charlotte may not inspire bettors, but CFB home team vs. the money line Old Dominion - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 13-40 SU, for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.( lost a heart breaker N.Texas by a 45-38 count and are now in a letdown scenario) OLD DOMINION is 4-14 ATS L/18 after allowing 37 points or more last game . |
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11-04-17 | Penn State v. Michigan State +9 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
Penn States undefeated season came crashing down last week in the worst possible way, as they fell apart late and lost to Ohio State 39-38. I know a lot of pundits expect them now to come out very upset and ready to fire on all cylinders, but its never easy to get up off the proverbial matt after being body slammed and having the wind taking out you. Now in an emotional letdown scenario I expect a strong Michigan State defense to make life hard on the Lions in this spot. It must also be noted that the Spartans will also be in a big time revenge mode for being destroyed by Penn State last season by a 45-12 count. (Mich State is 9-1 SU L/10 and 11-1 ATS L/12 in Big 10 revenge tilts) PENN ST is 2-12 ATS L/14 in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 285 or less yards/game .PENN ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 0-6 ATS L/6 off a road loss.MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games in the second half of the season during the last few seasons. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Penn State - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 12-38 ATS on the rebound for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors dating back 25 seasons. Play on the Michigan State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-17 | Kansas State +4 v. Texas Tech | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 121 h 51 m | Show | |
Texas Tech enters this game against a very competitive Kansas St football program having lost 4 of their L/5 and 3 straight games by double digit deficits , and in my opinion from the out set of this season have been over rated by the prognosticators. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder's well coached group must be respected, and after resting a lot of starters last week in a win vs instate Rivals Kansas, will now be primed to play a top tier brand of physical football. Take the points. KC HC Snyder is 31-19 ATS L/50 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game. CFB road team like KState - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 92-42 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-17 | UMass +32 v. Mississippi State | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 41 h 17 m | Show | |
Mississippi State is off one of their biggest wins of the campaign last week on the road, against Texas A&M and will now be in a letdown situation and in a double jeopardy look ahead scenario as they prepare to play Alabama next week. The goal of Miss State , is to stay healthy for their big game, and I'm betting they play down to their competition this week, while subbing in a lot of backups. Also UMass has suddenly come to life, winning two straight while compiling 1619 yards of offense in their L/3 games overall while averaging 38.3 ppg, and are a viable cover group in this spot considering the circumstances. I'm betting on Umass moving to 7-0 ATS L/7 vs SEC sides. Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-04-17 | Wisconsin -13 v. Indiana | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Indiana coach Tom Allen knows know exactly what's coming his way this Saturday when his Indiana Hoosiers go against the fourth-ranked Wisconsin . QUOTE: That's exactly the recipe for success Wisconsin will use once again this week vs Indiana. I know Illinois look disinterested last week in a sleepy win vs Illinois, but now after that short snooze and the season winding down and the possibility of play off spot ,you can bet they will be awake and ready to make a statement vs a Indiana side that not built to withstand the physical pounding they are going to take today behind a D, that has allowed only 12.9 ppg game. Wisconsin has owned this Indiana football program in the recent past winning 7 straight times by an average score of 58-14 and I am betting on a repeat performance is on today's agenda. WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 winning by an average of 18.2 ppg. CFB Road favorites Wisconsin - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 51-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons. Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-03-17 | Marshall +8 v. Florida Atlantic | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 31 m | Show | |
Marshall after a nice run that saw them winning 5 straight games behind a nasty D that allowed a total of 37 points ( 7.4 ppg) , looked asleep at the proverbial wheel last week at home in a loss to Florida International. Now wide awake after that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to respond in a big way vs Lane Kiffins high flying Florida Atlantic football program a side in a letdown situation after taking a big win against Western Kentucky last week by scoring 22 points in the 4th quarter for a 42-28 win. Marshall is 4-0 SU L/4 meetings in this series, and I'm betting they cover and possibly pull off a su upset here. MARSHALL is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return .FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs. FLA ATLANTIC is 9-22 ATS L/31 as a home favorite and 1-12 ATS L/13. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 47-17 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | 21-34 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Buffalo has played an extreme brand of disciplined/conservative ball on the road this season and have scored an average of just 14 ppg on offense, while allowing just 15.3 ppg. They have given up some yard but have proven resilient and bend but don't break mind set. Meanwhile, the Jets have scored just 20 ppg on average and given up just 18.7 ppg. My own projections estimate both team to put between 14-20 points on the board , which gives credence to an under bet based on my estimates. note: BUFFALO in their L/50 in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points have seen average of 35.9 ppg get scored. NY JETS are in their L/103 games when they allow 15 to 21 points have seen average of 36.8 ppg go on the board. The Bills have gone UNDER 14 straight times when the line is within four of pick and on turf vs a team that had fewer regular season wins the previous season, as long as they are not hosting the Dolphins the total highest combined score clicked in at 39 points with the average combined score coming in at 28.3 ppg. NFL team against the total like the Jets - in a game involving two lower tier defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 32-8 UNDER the L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for under bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-02-17 | Navy -8 v. Temple | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 15 m | Show | |
Tonight Navy enters this game against Temple in a nasty mood after two straight hard fought losses derailed their undefeated season. Add to that revenge for a loss to Temple last year in the ACC title game and you have a Navy side that will be dangerous and merciless. It must be noted that this is not the same smash mouth Temple football program of the last few seasons, under new HC Cosby and despite of being feisty and well rested off a bye I'm betting they won't have big enough gonads to stop their fire breathing opponent in this spot. Temple when off a bye is 1-9 ATS L/10 SU/ATS vs a conference team looking for revenge. Navy is 5-0 ATS on the road this season. CFB Road favorites like Navy - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Temple - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-02-17 | Northern Illinois +8.5 v. Toledo | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois and Toledo arguably the two best teams in the MAC will go head to head this Thursday night in the Glass Bowl. Toledo has been on a roll of late winning and covering three straight, but their biggest weakness remains their defense, which was evident when they allowed Tulsa and Miami Fl 52 and 51 points respectively and I'm betting the Huskies do some damage here this week via a balanced attack, while their own staunch D that allows just 18 ppg, will slow the Rockets explosive offense enough to keep them within striking distance of outright upset here this evening. It must also be noted that NIU is 27-3 SU and 25-5 ATS L/30 on the road in MAC battles and the series visitor has not failed to cover in the L/6 confrontations. It must also be noted NIU is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS on the road vs a side off a win like the Rockets are and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 away facing a team on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry. CFB Home favorites like Toledo - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are a long term bad bet going just 61-141 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 43.5 | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 57 m | Show | |
Denver enters this game off getting shut out last week, as their offense continues to look horrendous on a regular basis and has not score more than 17 points since their week 1 opener. One thing they have going for them is a solid D, ranked No.2 in the NFL and more than capable of slowing down the KC Chiefs this Monday night.DENVER is 13-4 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game , with the combined average score of 38.1 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, KC comes off a higher scoring Thursday night game losing a heartbreaker to Oakland 31-30 on a last minute play.. It must be noted however, that teams off a Thursday game than playing on a Monday have seen their games stay under the total 9 of the L/10 times dating back 6 seasons and the Chiefs have gone under 9 straight times after playing the Raiders, and are 1-5 under off a Thursday game. I',m expecting this to be a defensive snooze fest that remains on the low side of the number DENVER is 6-0 UNDER L/6 off a road loss with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board.KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points with a combined average of 39.1 ppg getting scored.Reid is 10-1 UNDER L/10 after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the board.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 50 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lions are very well rested and coming off their bye week as they prepare to face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Ford Field on Sunday night. The Lions really showed me something before their bye , never giving up and almost coming back from huge DD deficit against the Saints in New Orleans. They looked tanked in that game early on , like I expected them to be, but somehow they found the energy to make a game of it, in never say die fashion which was impressive to say the least. That tells me something about this team and I'm going to back them here tonight getting points. I know the Steelers are a fine team, but no team is infallible in the new NFL, as was the case when their stud veteran QB Roethlisberger’s threw five-interceptions in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville, three weeks ago. Yes, I also know Matt Stafford the Lions QB , has not performed all that well of late, but with some rest I expect the gifted QB to be at his best in this spot and get us the cover even though he will only have one key downfield target in Marvin Jones as WR Golden Tate is dealing with a shoulder injury . Take the points. Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. NFL Home teams like the Lions - off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 33-11 ATS L/10 L/10 years, for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Lions - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 25-6 L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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10-29-17 | Chargers +9 v. Patriots | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 116 h 56 m | Show | |
The New England Pats enter this game off a hugely emotional win vs the Atlanta falcons last week, and will be in a letdown situation this week, vs a Chargers team that I feel is starting to peak and show a lot of promise as was evident last week in a 21-0 victory over Denver, which was their third straight victory. The Chargers in their 7 games this season, have been very competitive and have lost only one game by more than 7 points and that was to KC. Today I expect they will once again stay within striking distance of the Pats and get us the cover. LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game LA CHARGERS is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better and 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season. Road teams like the LA Chargers - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less ) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-16 during the L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills -2.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 116 h 45 m | Show | |
Last week the Oakland Raiders pulled off an miraculous upset vs the KC Chiefs with under a minute left on the clock and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation. What was surprising was how badly the raiders had been playing previous to this as was evident by losing 4 straight games, and how average they looked all night before the big play got them a victory. I'm betting they fall back into a state of mediocrity here, vs a Buffalo side that has won 3 of their L/4 games, what has been a solid overall defense, that before last week had not allowed more than 20 points allowing an average of 14.8 ppg in 5 games. I'm betting on the Bills D once again to be the catalyst behind a win and cover in this spot. OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS L/8 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog . Favorites like Buffalo - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-13 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection |