Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-04-22 | Seahawks v. Rams +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 45 h 24 m | Show | |
I know the defending Super Bowl champions the LA Rams are banged up and not in top form , but this is just to many points for the Seahawks to cover in my humble opinion on the road , giving us value with the undervalued home underdog. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. Carroll is 18-33 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 13. Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December. NFL Favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 67-119 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rams to cover |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 35 m | Show | |
The Jets have pivoted from QB Zach Wilson to Mike White and Im betting that will be a beneficial move . The Jets right now if the season ended would be in the play offs and are very motivated to get some upward momentum. It must be noted in two career starts, White owns passer ratings of 149.3 and 101.1 in his first and only other start last season. Interestingly enough the Jets had eclipsed the 30 point -plateau and 450 Total Yards in the last four seasons just 3 times and guess who was the starting QB in those games, you got it - White. So this week against a Vikings side that has lost the stats battles in 3 straight games, the Jets must not be underestimated in this ability to cash a ticket for us. NY JETS are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.NY JETS are 6-0 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons. NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NFLHome favorites (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. NY Jets to cover |
|||||||
12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia UNDER 52.5 | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA This total has steamed up by almost 5 points since opening and now that it's been over done Ill come back and take a contrarian stance and hit the under offering. Georgia has allowed 12.4 ppg on the road this season.The Dawgs have allowed 20 or less points in their L/7 games.( 10, 0, 20, 13, 19, 6, 14) Im betting Georgia will not allow more than 17 this week, while my own projections estimate a 31 point offensive output . GEORGIA is 6-0 UNDER when they score 29 to 35 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.8 ppg scored. Kelly is 16-6 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 49.9 ppg scored. GEORGIA is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.4 ppg scored. CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 35-8 UNDER L/30 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.5 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Fresno State v. Boise State -3 | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 49 m | Show | |
MW Championship Game Boise State took out Fresno State 40-20 earlier this season, and Im betting the Bulldogs will not have a big enough turn around to get the revenge win in the rematch. Boise is 11-1 SU L/12 at home this series and have won 5 of 6 home games . Home field advantage will prevail once again. BOISE ST is 33-17 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. Tedford is 14-28 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992. CFB home team vs. the money line (BOISE ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-2 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18.7. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FRESNO ST) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, off 3 straight wins against conference rivals are 13-38 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boise State to cover |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Central Florida v. Tulane -160 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show | |
From time to time I will lay a little lumber with a certain gridiron moneyline opportunity, and Tulane is my choice here this week .Home favorites vs. the money line (TULANE) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80%)or better playing a team with a winning record are 33-1 L/5 seasons. Tulane has proved to me their the real deal after last weeks road victory vs Cincinnati. I know UCF is a top tier side, and beat Tulane the last time they visited here a few weeks ago 38-31. But now Im betting on a revenge scenario bounce back effort by the Green Wave in this championship game to be golden. Play on Tulane to win |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy -8.5 | 26-45 | Win | 100 | 55 h 43 m | Show | |
Ive made Troy -10 advantage favs here according to my own personal projection sheets. Thus laying this number makes for a viable wager. TROY is 7-1 ATS against conference opponents this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.3 ppg. Note: Coastal Carolina is expected to play without starting QB Grayson McCall. His replacement QB Jarrett Guest has not shown much going 18-of-42 (42.9%) for 270 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs in conference and here vs an extremely strong Trojans D, more struggles should be expected. CFB home team (TROY) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Troy to cover |
|||||||
12-02-22 | Utah +3 v. USC | 47-24 | Win | 100 | 63 h 2 m | Show | |
Since these teams have met earlier this season, the Utes D has become more physical and has come together and currently showing alot of chemistry. Im betting the Utes physicality and grit will be the difference maker in the rematch.Entering the Pac-12 Championship game, Utah leads the Pac-12 in third down and fourth down defense, first downs defense, passing defense, rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense and time of possession. It must be noted that on the season the Utes have the PPG differential advantage , winning by +19.3 as compared to USC’s +16.2 ppg diff average. • The Utes are averaging 39.4 points per game, ranking 10th nationally. Utah is the only team in the Pac-12 that ranks in the top-20 nationally in both scoring offense and defense, ranking 10th and 19th. In the last three games, Utah has been averaging 67.3 yards per scoring drive while averaging 51.4 in the previous nine games. Utah is averaging 26.4 first downs per game while holding opponents to 15.5, ranking fourth in first down offense and 11th in first downs defense in the FBS. Note:Extending plays is Utah's specialty this season, ranking eighth in the FBS in third down conversions (.503)Utah ranks fifth in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed per game in the country. UTAH is 22-10 ATS L/32 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better. ) UTAH is 22-7 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. USC is 7-18 ATS in December games since 1992. CFB team (USC) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. CFB team (UTAH) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Utah to cover |
|||||||
12-02-22 | North Texas v. UTSA UNDER 70 | 27-48 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
C-USA Championship Game North Texas has allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their L/4 games and are capable of staling the Roadrunners offense. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 7 points exact in two of their L/3. With this being a championship game, Im betting the action will not be as wide open as reg season action, and a more chess like game will be played. Im not saying is will be a defensive sleeper, but I am betting the final score will not top this steamed up offering. UTSA is 7-0 UNDER sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (UTSA) - off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 25-3 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 62.4 ppg. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager. They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production last week vs the Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Steelers +3 v. Colts | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is being under rated here in this matchup vs the Colts especially with JJ watts in the lineup. His energy permeates through this team and gives them an extra charge. The Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine matchups versus AFC South opponents, while the Colts are just 1-6 ATS L/7 vs AFC North opponents. The Steelers are 16-2 SU L/18 in this series, including 2-0 SUATS as a pup. I know the Colts have played better of late, but this team is still in disarray and fade material in my humble betting opinion. Pittsburgh 8-1 ATS L/ 9 MNF vs division opposition Play Pittsburgh to cover . |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
The Eagles had to get down and dirty in a come from behind in the 4th quarter last week to garner a 17-16 win vs Indianapolis and will now be in an unfortunate emotional letdown situation vs a very hungry Green Bay side. I know the Packers fell flat on their faces last week losing as favs , but it must be noted that QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU/ATS as a pup when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss. Rodgers is a very streaky QB, and dont be surprised if he finishes this season on fire, starting tonight in Philly on national TV. It must also be noted that Philly has lost the stats wars in 3 of their L/6 games and are being over rated by the pundits in my humble betting opinion. PHILADELPHIA is 14-31 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992. NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Green Bay Packers to cover |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 42.5 | 0-13 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 42 m | Show | |
The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is 43 or more points are 10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over 9 straight times here in California with a combined average of 52.5 ppg going on the board! Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Bears +6 v. Jets | 10-31 | Loss | -107 | 75 h 50 m | Show | |
The Jets averaged 2.1 yards per play in last Sundays defeat at the hands of the New England Pats and don't deserve this much respect based on having a overall strong D. QB Wilson will not start this week, but any back up pivot Im betting wont fair much better . Yes, I do know QB Justin Fields is not 100% but his legs are dangerous offensive weapons and if he does not play pounding the ball on the ground is not a foreign concept of moving the ball for the Bears giving them an advantage in this type of matchup. NY JETS are 19-34 ATS off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. NY JETS are 22-38 ATS in home games in non-conference games since 1992. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 13-40 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. CHICAGO is 6-1 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992 and have covered their L/3 visits to NYJ. Chicago is 4-0 ATS L/4 vs AFC East opposition. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +6.5 | 48-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
App State enters this game as a weak favorite in my betting opinion as their 2-7 ATS record in lined games would indicate as well as a ugly 1-7 ATS record as a chalk. The Mounties have also failed to cover 4 straight and despite of a boatload full of talent seem like their missing decent chemistry. On the flip-side we have to remember that the home side needs a victory here to garner a Bowl invite so they will leave it on the field today .APPALACHIAN ST is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.Clark is 11-21 ATS as a favorite as the coach of APPALACHIAN ST. G Southern is 4-0 ATS L/4 home finales. Play on Georgia Southern to cover |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Iowa State +10 v. TCU | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 7 m | Show | |
Iowa State takes on a perfect 10-0 TCU side that is off a late FG win in a grueling tilt vs Baylor last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this Saturday. Add to that Iowa State despite of not being Bowl eligible have played much better down the stretch than earlier in the season and have out yarded their L/5 opponents . This could easily be the Cyclones biggest and most important game of the season from a personal perspective and I expect we see them leave everything on the field versus a side easily looking ahead to their upcoming Big 12 championship game. Iowa State has covered 6 straight aas conference road pups and are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series as underdogs. Campbell is 15-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of IOWA ST. CFB road team (IOWA ST) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 179-106 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Iowa State to cover |
|||||||
11-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Liberty -23.5 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 29 m | Show | |
Liberty is off a 1 point loss to Vtech last week and are not in a good mood. This Liberty side is known as the king of cripple killers and Im betting their wrath has no end this week, against a side they overwhelmingly matchup up well against. Note: Liberty has crushed sub par .333 opponents by an average of 33 ppg in their L/17 opportunities and have covered and won these events. 7-0 straight times in lined tilts. Rinse and repeat. Play on Liberty to cover |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Michigan v. Ohio State -7.5 | 45-23 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
After playing Illinois last week Michigan is bruised and banged up and Im betting that will effect their performance this week vs. revenge minded Ohio State side that has had this game circled on their calendar for a while now after getting shellacked by a 42-27 count last season at the hands of the wolverines. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 20-50 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Play on Ohio State to cover |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +3 | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
Arkansas known as inconsistent football program under HC Pitman is off a huge win vs Miss last time out and now Bowl eligible will be in huge letdown spot vs a Missouri program that had success in this series over the years. Note: Arkansas has lost 11 of their L/15 off a upset win. ARKANSAS is 11-25 ATS L/37 as a road favorite . Drinkwitz is 9-2 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 yards/game as the coach of MISSOURI. MISSOURI is 11-2 ATS L/13 in home games versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-62 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. MISSOURI is 3-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS .MISSOURI is 4-0 straight up against ARKANSAS at Arkansas. Play on Missouri to cover |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -2 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 21 m | Show | |
Both these teams have identical 9-2 records on the season, and their only recent losses have both come to UCF in closely contested affairs. The difference maker today will come via Bearcats home field advantage and the fact this is a football program is use to high pressure games and will not fold under any kind of pressure. This is not the case for Tulane. CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - off a double digit road win, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 36-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1. Play on Cincinnati cover |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Wow it was a crazy week for both these sides last time out on the gridiron. The 8-2 Vikings took their worst home loss since 1963 and the Pats after looking asleep at the wheel for most of their game vs the Jets took a walk off win with a punt return for the length of the field. Now Im betting on a complete reversal of sorts as a huge redemption minded bounce back for the Vikes is in play and for karma to instantly strike back at the Pats vs an embarrassed side looking to gain back some self respect. Im betting on Minnesota to make it 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 Thanksgiving days games. MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS in home games after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 59.5 | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
No matter what stats both offensively or defensively have been recorded by either side this season should be discarded and it must be noted that this is a heated rivalry that is often very physical and grueling. This kind of battle also usually ends in a lower scoring affair as compared to the totals offering. These teams have gone under in 10 of their L/13 meetings in Ole Miss and in the two most recent battles these teams did not eclipse hefty totals of 71 and 65.5 with both tilts coming well under theses numbers registering in at 52 and 55 points respectively. OLE MISS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53 points going on the board.OLE MISS is 10-2 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 road games. 80% Chance of rain in Oxford Thursday night. CFB team against the total (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 191-113 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show | |
The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall. DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored. Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52 | 30-27 | Loss | -107 | 63 h 57 m | Show | |
Im sure the pundits and weekend warriors are expecting a passing duel when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go head to head with Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. However, both these teams are most prob going to have key receivers out of the lineup this week and Im betting that will hamper big downfield plays. Key here will be the Chargers inconsistent offense this season behind a banged up QB Herbert’s who is still not 100% with a rib injury, which happened in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Throw in the WR issues and the Chargers could have problems with point production vs a under rated KC defense and fail to live up to offensive estimates from the lines-makers which makes for an inflated Total that is vulnerable to be taken advantage of from under bettors. Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in November.Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. AFC. LA CHARGERS are 29-12 UNDER (L/41 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better ) with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 25-12 UNDER L/37 in home games revenging a same season loss against opponent with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board. Under is 22-6 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game Game 15 or less road chalk of 6 or more points with a Totals line of 49 or more have gone under in 12 of the L/13 times dating back 3 seasons. NFL games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone 16-42 UNDER overall and 0-6 UNDER when AFC team is the home dog . NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. are 73-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Bears +3 v. Falcons | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 66 h 7 m | Show | |
Atlanta is 4-6 SU on the season, but even at that sub standard record is a aberration as the Falcons have been out-yarded -82 in net YPG ranking second worse in the NFL and are an ugly 1-9 in the stats battles this campaign. Meanwhile, the Bears , despite of not being a top tier side, are dangerous behind the legs of QB Justin Fields and a offensive system that starting to micmic cfb military school programs. That might be an exaggeration but you get the picture. Im saying the Bears matchup well here vs a obviously over rated opponent based on stats. Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss which was the case last time out. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 24-61 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Play on Chicago Bears to cover |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 51 m | Show | |
NY Jets are playing over all proficient football and are 6-3 SUATS record, including 4-0 SUATS on the road and have an overall 5-1 SU record L/6 trips to the gridiron and obviously deserve respect as road dogs. I know New England carries a famous brand name but the Jets are a team on the rise and look very much like a viable side to back. Yes, I know the Pats are well rested, but that has not been a recipe for success for Bellichick and company going 1-10-1 ATS with rest. Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East. NY JETS are 37-21 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992. Play on NY Jets to cover |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show | |
Detroit rallied last week from a 24-10 deficit to pull off a 31-30 win, the franchise's first victory after trailing by 14 or more points entering the fourth quarter since 1993. Now with momentum on their sides the Lions enter with confidence and Im betting will be prepared to battle again this week vs the Giants. The Lions' offense has been very efficient over the past three games, turning the ball over just once and must not be underestimated in the dog role. Visitor is 10-2 ATS in this series .Detroit is 8-3 non-division road dogs of 6 points or less. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 17-5 ATS after being out-gained by 75 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC. Campbell is 1-9 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992. NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 95-47 ATS L/39 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. DETROIT is 5-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS L/6 meetings.Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York. Play on Lions to cover |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Fresno State v. Nevada +22.5 | 41-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Fresno State is playing well and Nevada is not having suffered 8 straight losses after q 2-0 start to their campaign. I know the Bulldogs are the superior side, but they have not played well on the road this season losing the stats battles in 4 of 5 games. Im not doubting Fresno State wins here straight up, but I wont be surprised to see Nevada cover this spread and in fact Im betting they do. Nevada was blast 41-3 on the road like week in Boise State but it must be noted that this program has proved somewhat resilient in the past after a ugly offensive output going 14-3 ATS L/17 in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game . Tedford is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. poor teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992. Play on Nevada to cover |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Georgia -21.5 v. Kentucky | 16-6 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 7 m | Show | |
Georgia is a power house and heads and shoulders above most teams in this entire nation and have a history of having strong performances in their final road games of the season registering an astounding 11-0 SU/ATS record. With that said, and despite of the hefty line offering laying this much lumber is a viable offering. Note: CFB Road favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (GEORGIA) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against an average team (+/- 50 YPG) are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (KENTUCKY) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 16-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Play on Georgia to cover |
|||||||
11-19-22 | UL-Monroe +15 v. Troy | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show | |
UL Monroe has won their L/2 games, and now go against a strong Troy side, that despite of 8-2 overall record and a 7-0 run have only one win of more than 9 points during their current winning streak. Its Troys /D that does a majority of the top tier work, while the offense regularly struggles. My projections estimate this is just to many points to lay with the Trojans with the value sitting with the road dog with winning momentum . "Don't let their record give you any indication," Troy coach Jon Sumrall said. "They're 4-6 by record but they lost by a score to Coastal Carolina, they lost by a score to South Alabama, and they played Alabama and Texas, two Power Five teams. TROY is 0-10 ATS L/10 in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders . TROY is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 season.TROY is 4-14 ATS in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) Play UL Monroe to cover |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Georgia State +9.5 v. James Madison | 40-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
The Georgia State Panthers must not be underestimated here vs James Madison as their defense is staunch and has been dominating their opposition of late. It must be noted that in the last three trips to the gridiron they have given up a grand total 785 yards combined and they have sacked the QBs 15 times during their current smash down of offenses. I know James Madison is a fine football program, but they will feel the heat here today vs a gritty/physical side with a never say die attitude. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. GEORGIA ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. GEORGIA ST is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CFB road team (GEORGIA ST) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia State to cover |
|||||||
11-19-22 | UTSA -13 v. Rice | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 51 m | Show | |
Its not my usual m.o to lay this many points on the road . But Im betting we have a firm advantage here with the road team UTSA that has won 7 straight behind a consistent offense that will take advantage of Rice D, that has allowed 41,56, 30, 45 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. The Roadrunners are also trying to clinch a chamoionship game spot so motivation will be a huge factor this Saturday Note:Road favorites vs. the money line (UTSA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 36-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering . UTSA has won the L/6 meetings in this series and have won and covered the last 3. Play on UTSA to cover |
|||||||
11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 29 m | Show | |
The defending Big 12 champs Baylor Bears were defeated 30-28 as 7.5-point chalk at TCU last season, and now have revenge on board and are redemption minded after a down effort last week vs Kansas State in what Im betting was a look ahead situation that back fired on them from a attention standpoint. Now wide awake and ready to perform they are very viable underdogs at home vs a TCU side in an emotional letdown scenario after pulling off an upset on the road vs Texas last week. TCU is 5-15 ATS L/20 off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. Baylor has covered 13 of their L/14 as an underdog when out looking for conference revenge versus an opponent coming off a SUATS victory, including 8-0 ATS L/8 when playing as hosts. .BAYLOR is 31-16 ATS L/47 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Aranda is 13-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of BAYLOR. Play on Baylor to cover |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers OVER 41 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Last week Aaron Rogers and the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through an ugly start to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind rookie WR Christian Watson who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed forward momentum as he scored three touchdowns including 8 receptions ( 107 ypg) . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts. With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star RB Henry has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total. My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 60.2 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. Vrabel is 8-1 OVER in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is 5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. LaFleur is 20-9 OVER after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and 3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and 7-0 OVER on Thursdays vs non-division opposition and 11-2 OVER in the 2nd of back to back home games. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Miami-OH +1.5 v. Northern Illinois | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Despite of an array of returning players from last season, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU on the campaign and will not be going bowling this season. Meanwhile, 4-6 Miami O still has a chance at a Bowl invite and Im betting are very motivated and well prepared to get a W here today. I know Northern Illinois is off a victory last time out, but that has not always been a recipe for success when facing this particular MAC football program going 0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win vs the Hawks. Overall Miami O is 7-1 ATS L/8 meetings in this series and get the nod here behind a solid D, that is allowing just 23 ppg. Note: Northern Illinois is allowing an average of 38 points per game ranking 114th nationally allowing 8.3 yp attempt and here even against a pedestrian Miami O offense wont necessarily be ready for any kind of sudden bounce back. MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.(lost to Ohio last time out) CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - off a road win against a conference rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 7-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Miami O to cover |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | 16-22 | Loss | -114 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending an over wager here. Im betting top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. LA Chargers have cashed on the OVER in 10 of their L/11 non division games when the Totals offering is 51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg. Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games and 7-1 OVER vs NFC West and 12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . SF is 6-1 OVER off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall. LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -1.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show | |
Rams were shocked last week as with 35 seconds left on the clock Tom Brady engineered a come from behind victory with a TD that shocked and emotionally smacked the Rams down a few notches. Now in a rebound mode Im betting the redemption minded Rams come out here with their proverbial hair on fire and take down the visiting Cardinals. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of ARIZONA. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-33 L/5 seasons a go against 92% conversion rate. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 2-29 L/5 seasons for 94% conversion rate. Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 in this series. Play on LA Rams to cover |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Texans +4.5 v. Giants | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 23 m | Show | |
I respect how well the Giants have played this season overall but they have a long history of playing down to their opposition. It must be noted that the Gmen have failed to cover 12 of their L/16 vs sub .150 struggling sides like the Texans. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10. Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 8-19 L/27 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games . Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFLRoad underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced are 60-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on Texans to cover |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Lions +3 v. Bears | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 67 h 32 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings this game should be closer to a pickem even though the Bears have home field advantage thus giving us value with the road dog. DETROIT is 8-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North. CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bears are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. NFL team (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Saints -1.5 v. Steelers | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 13 m | Show | |
The inconsistent Saints played their most complete game of the season when they beat visiting Las Vegas 24-0 two weeks ago and despite of a loss last week are more than capable of a bounce back vs a Pittsburgh side they matchup well against. Not betting on another shut out, but against a offense, which is averaging just 15 points per game and is tied for the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (11) the Saints have a great opportunity for victory. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Saints are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous gam PITTSBURGH is 3-12 ATS L/15 against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season . NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/39 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Saints to cover |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 37 m | Show | |
Cleveland according to my power rankings despite of a sub .500 record is very under rated and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a Miami side that are ranked 15th in rushing yardage allowed per game this season. Look for Nick Chubb to do what other RBs have not done to the Dolphins and rush consistently and for more than 100 yards. Chubb is second only to Derrick Henry in rushing yards per game (105.1) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns, with 10. Chubb will be the difference maker . Miami is 0-7 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. MIAMI is 6-21 ATS in home games after a win by 3 or less points .MIAMI is 16-30 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate. NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play on Cleveland to cover |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Jaguars +10 v. Chiefs | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
Jacksonville is improving as is evident by winning the stats battles in 5 of 9 games this season and off a SU win last week and are capable of competing here vs a KC team in a letdown situation after QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards last week. Im now bettong on regression from the KC QB and his team. Note: KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 1-16 ATS L/17 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games . Reid is 1-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY. NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Seahawks v. Bucs -2.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 64 h 7 m | Show | |
Last time out future HOF QB Brady went on a , 60-yard drive with under 40 seconds left of last week’s victory vs the Rams and in doing so showed us you can never count him or his team out of any game. I know the Buccaneers opponents today the Seahawks have won 4 straight, su and ATS but they are an over rated bunch in my humble opinion and the lines-makers look like they agree with my assessment. It must be noted Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral field and is now motivated to get his team back to .500. Look for the super star to be primed to perform on an international stage and to help his team to a win and cover over Pete Carroll and company. Buccaneers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. TAMPA BAY is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses including pushes against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Tampa Bay to cover |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Georgia v. Mississippi State +16.5 | 45-19 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 15 m | Show | |
Georgia is off a huge win vs Tennessee last week by double digits . It was impressive to say the least against an explosive offense. Now in a letdown situation the Dawgs may not start as quickly vs a home side that deserves respect behind the viable arm of Will rogers and company. Note: Miss State HC Mike Leach has cashed 17 of 23 times in his career vs undefeated opposition. Georgia won 31- 24 at home last season in this series, failing to cover as -26.5 chalk and with a limited swing on this line, taking points with the home dog is not as far fetched as some pundits might suggest. Mississippi State has covered 2 of the L/3 meetings at home in this series.Georgia are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Miss State are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play on Mississippi State to cover |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Alabama -11.5 v. Ole Miss | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 49 m | Show | |
Alabama enters this game vs Ole Miss in very cranky mood , after falling flat on their faces and getting upset SU vs LSU last time out. You can bet life was miserable in practice this week for the Crimson Tide, and now this massive group of 4 and 5 star athletes will be ready to get redemption and what could easily be a merciless Alabama explosion. Saban is 13-0 SU in his career vs sides with a better record and 27-2 vs former assistants. ALABAMA is 16-6 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 20 ppg.
CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OLE MISS) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Alabama to cover |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | 16-31 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 26 m | Show | |
After a slow start Louisville has gone 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 tilts and are in a upward momentum drive and now deserve respect here vs a over rated Tigers side that lost last time out to Notre Dame by DDs a a fav. Note: CLEMSON is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992. CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-8 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Louisville to cover |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Rice v. Western Kentucky -12.5 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky football program has had a long history of over powering performances late in the season. In week 11 games they are a perfect 13-0 L/13 opportunities and 9-0 SU/ATS L/9 chances. Im betting on another explosive effort here vs a Rice side that has a tendency to fall asleep at the proverbial wheel like their ugly 56-23 upset loss to Charlotte at home as 15 point favs a couple of weeks ago. Western Kentucky smashed Charlotte last week 59-7 and beat Rice last season by a 42-21 count. Rinse and repeat on board. Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Hilltoppers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games. CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (RICE) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 34-67 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Western Kentucky to cover |
|||||||
11-12-22 | James Madison v. Old Dominion +8 | 37-3 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 41 m | Show | |
JMU (5-3, 3-2) spent a week in the Top 25 after winning its first five games, including an upset of Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina. But JMU has lost three games in a row since as has ODU . While, the Dukes are not going to Bowl or allowed to be a championship side because of this being their first season in the FBS, they may not be as inclined to fight it out like a do or die situation. Meanwhile, the Monarchs are still in the hunt for a bowl bid, and need 3 straight wins to do so and with that said Im betting leave everything on the field today. CFB road team vs. the money line (JAMES MADISON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 1-7 this season . Play on Old Dominion to cover |
|||||||
11-12-22 | LSU v. Arkansas +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 40 m | Show | |
Im betting on a huge hangover for the LSU Tigers after upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide last time out making them vulnerable to being upset here today vs Arkansas side that fell asleep at the wheel last time out and were upset. Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game which was the case in a 21-19 defeat vs under rated Liberty. The two most recent meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points . Arkansas is 8-1 ATS as a underdog of 16 or fewer points. Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. CFB road team (LSU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-52 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arkansas |
|||||||
11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 52 m | Show | |
East Carolina deserves respect here after 3 straight victories vs BYU, UCF, and Memphis. Meanwhile, Cincinnati seems to not playing with alot of motivation and the offense seems much more inconsistent than over the last few seasons, giving credence to me recommending we grab the points with a never say die underdog that plays with passion. Houston is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of E CAROLINA.E CAROLINA is 16-4 ATS L/20 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points . Play on East Carolina to cover |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Buffalo +1.5 v. Central Michigan | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Buffalo had a five game win streak abruptly come to an end vs Ohio last time out. on the road . However, it must be noted that Buffalo is looking to win its fourth road game of the season. A win would make the Bulls bowl eligible for the seventh time in program history and the fifth time in the last six seasons so they will be very motivated and ready for a bounce back effort. Key projected difference maker: Buffalo has forced 19 turnovers on the season. The Bulls' lead the MAC with a +7 turnover margin. Add to that Bulls defense has been positively aggressive this season scoring a defensive touchdown in three of the last four games. BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992BUFFALO is 14-3 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. CFB road team (BUFFALO) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-3 L/30 seasons for a 89% conversion rate! Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover |
|||||||
11-08-22 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +2.5 | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
The Battle of the Bricks goes tonight as up-trending Ohio takes on Miami Ohio in Oxford tonight. Im betting- Ohio has surprised alot of ppl this season behind a offense thats piling up top tier numbers. It must be noted that rhe Redhawks have one of the best defenses in the conference. Miami ranks first in scoring defense (21.4), second in total defense (348.0), first in rush defense (107.8), third in sacks (23) and third in interceptions (7). Miami's rush defense ranks 18th nationally. In five conference games the RedHawks are allowing 18.0 points per contest and have allowed just 10 touchdowns all MAC season.-- In conference play, opponents have reached the re zone 16 times, but have come away with touchdowns just 50% of the time. Meanwhile, Ohio is ranked 124th in tackling and 123rd in coverage.Thats important because Im betting on QB Gabbert who has won 11 of his 12 career starts in Oxford to keep up with Rourke and company and get us to the promised land with either a cover or a SU upset victory. Projected key difference maker: In his first year with the football program, Graham Nicholson has not disappoin ted . He finished the season 15-20 on field goals, including 6-of-7 on attempts between 40-49 yards. He added 30 touchbacks on 65 kickoffs in 2021. He is 13-for-16 on field goals in 2022. He also had his first game-winning field goal, connecting on a 36-yard field goal with 21 seconds to go in the 17-14 win at Northwestern. The RedHawks are 32-15-2 at home vs. Ohio, including a 30-28 victory in 2018 in the Bobcats' last visit. OHIO U is 4-15 ATS L/19 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) MIAMI OHIO is 32-15 ATS ( L/47 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%)MIAMI OHIO is 21-8 ATS off a double digit road win since 1992. which was the case last time out. Martin is 13-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO. Play on Miami O to cover |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Saints | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show | |
The Saints are off a top tier 24-0 effort last time out vs a very inconsistent Raiders team. However it must be noted that NFL teams off a shutout home win are just 1-4 ATS/SU L/5 opportunities dating back 37 seasons. Also the Saints have proven themselves very inconsistent this season, losing 5 of 8 games. Allen is 3-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached and is vulnerable to a letdown scenario here. NEW ORLEANS is also just 9-22 ATS L/31 against AFC North division opponents . Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS in road games against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE. Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 31-3 L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS under the Monday night lights of prime time action, Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS on Monday night away tilts. Play on Baltimore to win /cover |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 42.5 | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
.These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard. Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. Note: The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home. Despite of being well rested the Rams lost . NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week. Another interesting trend: Tampa goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides before playing in a neutral site tilt like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed , 20 of 22 times , when the Total offering is between 39 and 49.5 points . Bowles is 12-2 OVER in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Rams +3 v. Bucs | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 69 h 7 m | Show | |
Future HOF QB Brady and the Buccaneers are no longer to be feared as is evident by their sub par play so far this season. Brady has averaged a substandard 6.7 yards per attempt and the offense is tied for 25th in third-down efficiency (34.6 percent). TAMPA BAY is 9-21 ATS in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field this season. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field this season which was the case last time out. After a negative outing vs the SF 49ers last /Sunday the defending Super Bowl Champs will be in redemption and bounce back mode and are very dangerous. Sean McVay is 10-5 ATS as a road dog and 10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS i vs NFC South opposition , including cashing and winning 3 straight as a dog. The Rams’ also own a 8-1 ATS series record vs the Bucs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Tampa Bay. Small non-Division Away Pup (+5 or less points) if they lost their last game as a Home Dog/pk and scored 20 points or less are 24-2 ATS . Rams qualify. NFL team vs the money line (TAMPA BAY) - poor rushing team - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rams |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of their 7 games games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. AFC East division confrontations have gone 4-21 UNDER L/10 seasons and have gone under 16 of their L/18 dating back 5 season when the Host side is an underdog of +3.5 or more points . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Navy +18.5 v. Cincinnati | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 17 m | Show | |
Cincinnati lost last week to UCF and now are in a emotional letdown spot and vulnerable to starting slow despite of being in bounce back mode. Since last seasons play off run the Bearcats own a 1-6-1 ATS mark. NAVY is 7-0 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 9-1 ATS vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Niumatalolo is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as the coach of NAVY. Niumatalolo is 15-4 ATS off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of NAVY. CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36 or better minutes) are 55-16 SATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play on Navy to cover |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Michigan State +17.5 v. Illinois | 23-15 | Win | 100 | 54 h 25 m | Show | |
These two teams are operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with Illinois getting national accolades, while Michigan state seems completely lost. However, for today at least Im betting on Michigan state finding a way to be competitive. After a huge passing game last week vs Nebraska (91% completion rate)-- Illinois Im betting regresses especially after having to endure a emotional letdown after playing in type of stadium that can sap your energy. Michigan State needs wins badly to get a Bowl invite, so Im betting they leave everything on the field today. ILLINOIS is 2-10 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. ILLINOIS is 2-13 ATS in a home game where the total is 42 or less since 1992. ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992. Play on Michigan State to cover |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia -8 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 55 h 5 m | Show | |
Both these sides Tennessee and Georgia are explosive offensively but the difference maker comes via the Dawgs far superior D. The Dawgs are 10 ppg and 131 yards better on defense than the Volunteers. Georgia ranks 1st in red zone offense, and No.2 in Red Zone defense. Meanwhile, the Vols are ranked 82nd in the nation in overall D. Note: Dawgs HC Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU covering 31 times as a favorite of less than 20 points, and has won 8 straight games against undefeated foes. CFB road team (TENNESSEE) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. are 48-19 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia to cover |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 48 m | Show | |
The UCF Knights are strong team especially when playing at home but have yet to notch a victory on the road in the American Athletic Conference this season and have not grabbed a win in Memphis since 2018 season. Im betting UCF will find it hard again to find a way to win here this week on the highway, vs a Memphis side that 11-0 coming off an open date going back 8 seasons and 3-0 under Silverfield. key here will be the tigers discipline Note: Memphis ranks sixth for fewest penalties in FBS football and are averaging just 4.25 penalties per game. Memphis is also 7-0 ATS as a home dog since 2016. MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS off 2 consecutive road lossesMEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season since 1992.MEMPHIS is 25-12 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game . MEMPHIS is 6-1 against the spread versus UCF since 1992 at home. Play on Memphis to cover |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 53 h 4 m | Show | |
Baylor is 6-1-1 ATS as Big 12 away pups and are viable dogs in this spot based on their overall body of work during this campaign as compared to the Sooners inconsistent displays. BAYLOR is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference underdog against an opponent coming off a SU/ATS win. BAYLOR is 46-27 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in November.Bears are 47-23 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Sooners are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Sooners are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home against a side likr BU coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories. Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oklahoma.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. CFB home team (OKLAHOMA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 18-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate. Play on Baylor to cover |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU -9 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 12 m | Show | |
TCU is red hot entering this game winning 8 straight and still undefeated, ranking 3rd in the nation in Scoring Offense, averaging 44.3 PPG.and go against a Texas Tech side that was blasted vs Baylor last week and looking emotional and physically drained after taking on quality opponents in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on TCU to cover |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Iowa +4.5 v. Purdue | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 19 m | Show | |
Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point pups on the road at Iowa last season and now the Hawkeyes have revenge on board. I know both sides have played at the proverbial opposite end of performance spectrum , but Iowa showed some offensive uptick last week in a victory, and with a solid defensive group on the field ranking 5th overall on D Im betting they can make a game out of this and possibly get SU playback. IOWA is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Road team is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 60-26 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on Iowa to cover |
|||||||
11-04-22 | Duke -9.5 v. Boston College | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 37 m | Show | |
Wow what an ugly outing for the Boston College last time out, losing 13-3 as 8-point road favorite vs UConn which drops their ATS record vs FBS sides this season to 1-6 ATS. With that said, Im betting on another ugly outing for the Golden Eagles this week vs a Duke side that has registered 35 and 45 points in back to back games . With BC averaging 17.3 PPG on offense this season I highly doubt they can keep up here tonight and as the game progresses should find themselves down by DDs. Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Blue Devils are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf. Blue Devils are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Eagles are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. CFB road team (DUKE) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 63-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on Duke to cover |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 46 | 29-17 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg) ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting it will focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills ranks 29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November. Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Thursday night NFC sides like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston have gone under 10 of the L/12 times with the average combined ppg averaging 35.6 . Thursday non-division away sides like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans off a SU/ATS division loss have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina +3 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 52 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina are home dogs tonight where they deserve respect as is evident by a 17-2 SU in their last 19 overall , including 6-0 SU in revenge, and 2-0 SU/ATS as a underdog. Coastal Carolina lost in OT last season 30-27 in Boone and with big time revenge on board you can bet the home side will be fully awake and ready to perform. Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win which w the case last time out. Chadwell is 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of COASTAL CAROLINA. APPALACHIAN ST is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - off a double digit road win, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 62-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. Play on Coastal Carolina to cover |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Western Michigan +4.5 v. Bowling Green | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Both these offenses are less than explosive, but overall according to my data and power rankings projections the difference maker will come via Western Michigan superior red zone defense where they rank top-30 in opponent conversion rate. Last time out the Broncos was suffocating allowing Miami just 10 points in a win and smashed and grabbed their way to 7 sacks. Note:The Broncos have seen a decrease in their FBS opponent rushing yards in each of the last four games since giving up a season-high 238 to Pittsburgh and Im betting the ground the lanes will once again be shut down forcing Bowling Green to the air making them alot more one dimensional and readable. Advantage Western Michigan. Falcons are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week. Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Play on Western Michigan to cover |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Packers +11.5 v. Bills | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 22 m | Show | |
Oh how far the mighty have fallen. Biblical proportions have been attached to line and the perception of the public and the lines-makers ability to play into that concept. Right now Rodgers and company are no longer feared by their opponents and the betting public has abandoned them for their new darlings the Buffalo Bills. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 15-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. Play on Green Bay to cover |
|||||||
10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1.5 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 10 m | Show | |
The defending Super Bowl Champs are not getting alot of respect here , probably based on their 24-9 loss on the road in San Francisco in early October. However, now in revenge mode, Im betting on this sleepy looking Rams side to come out their coma here with a top tier effort. McVay is 10-2 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS. NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 7-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more are 24-1 L/39 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Rams to cover |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Panthers +4.5 v. Falcons | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 73 h 33 m | Show | |
Atlantas positive ATS record according to my data is skewed in comparison to the the fact they have been out-gained in each of their last six trips to the gridiron. Thats not a good omen for a team that has failed to cover 11 of their L/15 as home favs. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and despite of Carolina not having a solid record still beat TB last week and were gritty in a loss to the Rams in their previous game. Carolina has won their last two visits here and don't be surprised if a rinse and repeat situation rears it ugly head in this spot play. NFL Road underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 10-35 ATS 39 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate. Take the points with Carolina to cover |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 49 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show | |
These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg while Cardinals rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season. NFL sides with a .800 record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings going against a less than .500 side like the Cards , when the Totals offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Stanford +16.5 v. UCLA | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 37 m | Show | |
The Bruins (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) were defeated by Oregon 45-30 last week at Autzen Stadium Note:The Bruins are 3-6 SU/ATS coming off their first loss of the season. . That was a deflating loss for the Bruins and Im betting they are drained emotionally here and may come out a little flat. Meanwhile, Ssnce giving up 40 or more points in each of its first three Pac-12 tilts, the Stanfords defense has really picked up on their tenacity and has now permitted its last three opponents to score 56 combined points and have won two straight games. Note: Cardinal HC David Shaw is 16-4 SU and 16-3 ATS when coming off two wins exact. Shaw is 20-10 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field as the coach of STANFORD. Stanford owns a 12 -2 SU record last 14 games in this series, covering 11 of those games. Play on Stanford to cover |
|||||||
10-29-22 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State +10.5 | 31-3 | Loss | -120 | 55 h 26 m | Show | |
Last week South Alabama struggled to score and lost 10-6 to the Troy Trojans and a very physical game. Now in a letdown spot and physically/ emotionally drained Im betting they will have a hard time getting up off the matt in a tilt vs Arkansas State this Saturday. With formerly banged up QB James Blackman expected back in the llineup this week for the Red Wolves Im betting they will be competitive. S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Play on Arkansas State to cover |
|||||||
10-29-22 | SMU v. Tulsa +3 | 45-34 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 31 m | Show | |
The SMU Mustangs D is not looking good this season allowing 453 YPG vs FBS opposition and have been shredded against ground attacks as their No. 120th ranking trying to stop the run would indicate. With that said, Im betting on Tulsa RB Deneric Prince who enters this game off a career-best 231 yards performance last week to be a major catalyst in a Tulsa cover and possible outright win this week. TULSA is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.TULSA is 9-0 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). SMU is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). CFB road team vs. the money line (SMU) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more YPG) after 7+ games, after being out-gained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 4-34 SU L/30 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. Play on Tulsa to cover |
|||||||
10-29-22 | North Texas v. Western Kentucky -10 | 40-13 | Loss | -107 | 53 h 49 m | Show | |
This is not a strong version of the North Texas football program taking to the field today against Western Kentucky especially from a defensive standpoint as is evident by allowing an average of 476.1 ppg and 34.5 ppg. I know the Mean Green are 3-1 in CUSA action but like I said having a Swiss cheese D is not optimal. going forward -or here today, for that matter. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is looking very strong after finding a way past UAB last week, and now sporting a 3-1 record in CUSA action while allowing just 19.5 ppg at home this season and can alos light it up offensively averaging 39.5 ppg at home. The only real weakness that the Hilltoppers have displayed is a lack of discipline, but Littrell is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of NORTH TEXAS. NORTH TEXAS is 7-21 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play with the average ppg diff clicking in at -24.7. Note:N.Texas is 2-23-1 ATS record in conference tilts when they loss SU which the lines-makers believe will happen as do I. CFB road team (NORTH TEXAS) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after a loss by 6 or less points and 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Western Kentucky to cover |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State +15.5 | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 125 h 5 m | Show | |
I know how powerful Ohio State can be, but Penn State Im betting can keep this game close enough to cover via a grinding ground game that is capable of turning this game into a slow crawl in the trenches. Note: Day is 0-6 ATS in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of OHIO ST. CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons SU for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game are 45-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Penn State to cover |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Notre Dame +2.5 v. Syracuse | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 50 m | Show | |
Wow what an emotional hangover Syracuse must have after going into Death Valley and taking a big lead and then falling apart late and eventually losing to Clemson. The Orange had an opportunity of lifetime and blew it. Not a good situation for them here as Im betting they will have problems mustering the energy needed to take out a hungry Notre Dame side. ND as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, and they are coming off a victory of 4 points or more are 10-1 ATS . The Irish are 5-0 SUATS L/5 vs the ACC.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Play on Notre Dame to cover |
|||||||
10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs +1.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 12 m | Show | |
Is Tom Brady finally starting to show his age? Well to an extent he has been for a while, but even at 75% of where he was the future HOF QB is still better than most QBs in this league and deserves respect . The Bucs lost last week and look lost in the process , but after all the negative press are ready to reap redemption on a national stage this Thursday night. . Lets look at what Brady bring to the table in a situation like this.... He is 10-0 SU/ATS in his NFL career with a sub .500 record and coming off a SU defeat . While the Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS L/4 overall and 0-5-1 ATS in Thursday night road game . Until Tommy shows me he is toast Im betting he will be the difference maker here today and motivating factor behind a Bucs rebound.Ravens are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play on Tampa Bay to cover |
|||||||
10-27-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Southern Miss +1.5 | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Both these teams are off 2 straight wins with back up QBs at the helm. Conventional handicapping has alot of pundits on Lafayette, but Im going to take a contrarian view here tonight in a tilt that features strong defensive units sitting inside the Top 35 in scoring defense (ULL 21st, USM 35th). Both have almost identical yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game with the superior offensive numbers belonging to Lafayette . Despite of that I like home field advantage to be a strong , advantage for this Southern Miss football program . key catalyst Im betting for Southern /Miss will be Frank Gore, Jr., who continues to lead the ground game with 568 rushing yards and four TDs. He averages 81.1 yards per contest rushing and 4.9 per carry. Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Southern Miss holds a 40-11-1 series advantage, including a current nine-game winning streak heading into this contest including 6 straight wins at home . Play on Southern Miss to cover |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Bears +8.5 v. Patriots | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 129 h 40 m | Show | |
The Bears 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night road games have finally figured out that any success they will have this season wont come on the back of QB Justin Fields. Thus Im expecting a continued run heavy attack from the Bears and for their staunch defense to stand tall. Note: The Bears rushing attack has big-play potential, ranking second in rush yards per game (170) and seventh in rushing average (5.2 yards per rush).With that said I will back them getting more than a TD on the road here in this prime time event . NFL Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 9-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate. Play on Bears to cover |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Chiefs -3 v. 49ers | 44-23 | Win | 100 | 102 h 34 m | Show | |
KC QB Mahomes is in bounce back and redemption mode this week after throwing a late interception last week and falling short vs Josh Allan and Buffalo . The top tier QB is still high in the NFL QB standing with a passer rating of at least 100 and is tied for the league lead with 17 touchdown passes and capable of a big effort . Considering the 49ers are banged up on both offense and defense they are in trouble. The Niners also have alot of walking wounded who if they play are less than 100% i.e( Left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa ) Advantage Chiefs. 49ers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 7. Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. NFL Underdogs -SU (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 1-25 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS line offering. Play on Kansas City to cover |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers UNDER 48.5 | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 13 m | Show | |
Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are allowing just 255 yards per game and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game. Play UNDER |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos OVER 38.5 | 16-9 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 10 m | Show | |
I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. NYJ are 8-1 OVER vs opposition off Monday night tilt like Denver. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! Play on the OVER |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Giants +3 v. Jaguars | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 34 m | Show | |
Giants Im betting will continue their upward momentum on Sunday when they face the host Jacksonville Jaguars. The lines-makers expect this to be a close game, but the Giants have shown grit and propensity, as is evident by winning five of the 6 one-score tilts and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand again this Sunday. Yes, I know Jags QB Trevor Lawrence had a big game last week, maybe the best of his career, but his team still found a way to lose to a Indy team they have dominated in the recent past . Letdown is in order here for Jags as is continued success for Big Blue. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Jaguars 0-18 SU in their last eighteen games against NFC opposition. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 8-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Penn State | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 40 m | Show | |
Penn States perfect season record ended last week in a loss to the Michigan and they will now be in a letdown situation against a hungry and tough group of Gophers who after a 4-0 start have lost 2 straight. Last week the Nittany Lions D was shredded on the ground allowing a whopping 418 yards. Now against a strong Minnesota run attack behind the legs of Mohammed Ibrahim trouble looms for the home side here this Saturday on white out night. Fleck is 8-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 11-2 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Franklin is 7-22 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a road loss as the coach of PENN ST. CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS 10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on Minnesota to cover |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Mississippi State +21 v. Alabama | 6-30 | Loss | -104 | 82 h 21 m | Show | |
Alabama took part in a back forth emotional battle last week and lost on a ugly looking FG to Tennessee losing for the first time this season. That was an exhausting affair, and now Im betting instead of a giant rebound, Im expecting a slow start from Sabans now over valued crew. Note: Nick Saban in his career, js 0-5 ATS vs FBS opposition at home when coming off a SU/ATS loss Hey I know Mississippi State lost last week for the 2nd time this season to Kentucky, but I would at all not be surprised if they were not caught looking ahead to this game . Leach is 33-13 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992 CFB Road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Mississippi state to cover |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Arizona State +3 v. Stanford | 14-15 | Win | 100 | 77 h 15 m | Show | |
Stanford is in a huge letdown situation after upsetting Notre Dame last time out, and will now be vulnerable vs up trending ASU side that defeated a decent Washington team a couple of weeks ago before their bye week. Now well rested Arizona State with the relief of having gotten rid of HC Herm Edwards and a new era under way Im betting use their fresh legs here to be competitive and get us the cover . STANFORD is 2-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Shaw is 3-11 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return as the coach of STANFORD. Cardinal are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Play on Arizona State to cover |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Purdue v. Wisconsin -2 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 78 h 60 m | Show | |
Purdue 4-0 L/4 is getting alot of respect for the great football they have played, but this is a bad matchup for them vs Wisconsin despite of what many pundits expect. I know the Badgers seem discombobulated and are off being edged by Michigan State, 34-28 last time out in double OT, but this is a home tilt that puts this team in a situation that makes getting a victory a must just to get back some lost respect which means they will leave everything on the field in a all out effort. From historical standpoint Wisconsin is 42-28 ATS in Big Ten tilts when sporting a .500 record. WISCONSIN is also 47-27 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. Note: Wisconsin 15-0 SU in this series since the 2003 season. PURDUE is 0-6 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. PURDUE is 10-22 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PURDUE) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate! Play on Wisconsin to cover |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +6.5 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
This a key game for both Oklahoma State and Texas , as they have each already lost 1 game. With that said, Im expecting this to be a gritty battle that will be won in the trenches in physical fashion, and could easily be decided on the last possession of the game. Note:Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is just 3-13 SU away against opposition with a better record. Steve Sarkisian is 0-1 SU against Oklahoma State. I know the Cowboys blew a lead to TCU last time out and lost in OT, but the this is a resilient program as they have 6 straight wins after a loss. OKLAHOMA ST is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA ST is 43-26 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. The Cowboys have won five of their past six and 11 of their past 14 on Homecoming. OSU has won eight of the past 12 matchups with Texas, as well as two of the past three played in Stillwater. OSU is 7-2 in its past 10 and 16-7 in its past 23 games vs. AP Top 25 teams and 9- 4 in its last 13 games when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25. CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate which obviously qualifies on this ATS line offering . Play on Oklahoma State to cover |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 37 m | Show | |
This totals selection is based on a projection system that I have used during the L/30 seasons. My assessment is that based on the type of football both sides are playing a lower scoring affair than the offered number should be expected. Ball State has gone under in 4 of their L/5 overall. Under is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 home games.Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. BALL ST is 10-2 UNDER ) after playing a game at home over the last 3 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored. Neu is 11-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of BALL ST with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (E MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. CFB team against the total (BALL ST) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 62-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 14 m | Show | |
The Buffalo Bulls are currently in top form going 4-0 SUATS and deserve respect here getting points vs visiting Toledo. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG during that span including allowing back to back opponents to score 7 points. This kind of data and momentum gives us an edge on a possible SU win or a back door cover in competitive fashion. Note: The Bulls have not allowed points in the fourth quarter in any of their last four games. The Bulls have outscored their opponents, 55-7, in the first half over the last two games. Buffalo owns a solid 12-4-1 ATS mark as a home underdog, including 5-0-1 ATS against better than .700 foes. Buffalo is 3-0 ATS L/3 at home vs Toledo at home.The Bulls won the last meeting, 49-30, at UB Stadium in 2019. CFB Road favorites (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 39-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate. Play on Buffalo Bulls to cover |
|||||||
10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
UAB owns the nation's third-ranked pass defense and will be key to slowing down the Western Kentucky offense that averages throwing the ball 44 times per game so far this season..This will be the fourth spread offense UAB has faced this season and they have faired very well as the Blazers have allowed opposition quarterbacks to complete just 54 percent of their passes and have held opposing sides to an average of just 176.6 passing yards per game. Note: Western Kentucky has averaged 489 yards and 40 points per game, while UAB allows only 319 yards and 17 points per game. With said, this is a important game, and as almost is the case the better D will find a way to win. On the flipside the Blazers are a strong rushing team behind McBride and one of the nations most cohesive Offensive lines, but so far this season WKU has been a dominant run stopping group, but Im betting that wont be the case today. The physicality of UABS defense and offense will be the difference maker tonight. Clark is 12-1 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of UAB.Clark is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of UAB.UAB is 6-0 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. UAB is 10-2 ATS L/12 as C USA dog. WKU is 0-8 ATS as single-digit conference chalk when facing an above .500 win percentage side. Play on UAB to cover |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Troy +3 v. South Alabama | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
South Alabama has had a great start to their campaign garnering a 5-1 record to this point but in their two most recent games have been over rated by the lines-makers and failed to cover . Tonight against Troy (5-2) Im betting their dream season maybe abruptly upended. The Trojans have cashed 3 straight times against the spread and are on a 4 game winning run, and have cashed 5 straight times in this series and are not to be underestimated in their ferocity and ability to compete. Troy is also 3-0 ATS on the road this season and have cashed 4 straight as underdogs overall. S ALABAMA is 20-37 ATS after playing a game at home. TROY is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ALABAMA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 51-108 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. CFB road team (TROY) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 160-91 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. Play on Troy to cover |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 106 h 5 m | Show | |
QB Wilson has not performed well for the Broncos since coming over from Seattle but he is 15-2-1 ATS in his career as an underdog vs opposition coming off consecutive victories like the Chargers , including a stellar 8-0 ATS mark in division games under those parameters. Look for the QB to finally get things going this week, and for a solid Denver D, to give the Chargers all they can handle in this Monday night spot play. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 36-12 ATS 5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Denver to cover |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show | |
Denver has gone under 10 straight times off a fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also 0-6 UNDER after playing on a Thursday tilt and and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of (38.8 ppg )going on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons. Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 108 h 38 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board. McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career. Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show | |
Buffalo is great team and off a convincing 38-3 win vs Pittsburgh last week , but I have circled this game on my schedule for a while, and with the Chiefs getting points Im going with the underdog. Mahomes has matured alot after some key losses and in his career and now looks ready to ascend . Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career and Im betting he and his team have the edge in this tilt. I know the kid had to work hard to get bring his team back from a deficit last time out in a 30-29 win, but he proved himself to be a winner, and nothing changes today. Reid is 35-18 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY. NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 6-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chiefs to cover |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Seahawks | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 44 m | Show | |
Arizona is more than capable of taking advantage of Seattle's porous run defense and Im betting on QB Kyle Murray to run wild here and use play action to put up a big offensive output. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30.8 ppg this season, and those numbers should not get any better after this tilt. ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game as the coach of ARIZONA. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 3 seasons. NFL team (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road favorites (ARIZONA) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 22-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. The visiting team is 15-2-1 ATS in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand this Sunday again. Play on Arizona to cover |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +9.5 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 57 m | Show | |
How embarrassing it must have been for the Steelers as an organization after last weeks 38-3 loss to Buffalo. Now in redemption mode Im expecting Tomlin and company to salvage some respect with a top tier effort here at home vs TB , where they are 9-1-3 ATS L/13 as home dogs, including a 5-0 ATS mark vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the Buccaneers. Note:Tomlin when getting points at home is 12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS L/7 opportunities dating back 4 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 17-6 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992 with a +8 point diff. NFLHome underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Ravens v. Giants +6 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 31 m | Show | |
The Giants are being under rated here as home dogs vs a Baltimore team that does not deserve as much respect as its getting based in part on their reputation and their win against Cincinnati last time out. However, after watching the Giants consistently this season, Ive noticed one key factor which has me on them today, and that is team chemistry and grit. This team plays hard, and have more upper tier talent than given credit for. Note: Ravens bring a 3-7 ATS L/10 NFC East, including 0-4-1 ATS when traveling . The home side this season is 5-0 ATS run in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand. Harbaugh is 18-30 ATS in October games as the coach of BALTIMORE. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 22-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate. Play on NY Giants to cover |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Vikings -3 v. Dolphins | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Dolphins QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are in concussion protocol, and if one or the other plays will be less than 100% this week vs the visiting Vikings. The Dolphins could be forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson, who played most of Miami's Week 4 loss to the New York Jets. On the flipside Im betting QB Kirk Cousins and the Vikings take advantage of the banged up Fins and Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook to explode on the Miami defense and romp to a win behind a consistent offense. MIAMI is 0-6 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons. |