Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-22-18 | Arizona State +17.5 v. Washington | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 78 h 5 m | Show | |
The Washington Huskies are getting a lot of love from the lines makers here and not giving a lot of respect to the Arizona State Sun Devils. But it must be noted that the Huskies have failed to cover 16 of their L/21 as PAC 12 Double digit home chalk . Meanwhile, Arizona State has covered 6 of their L/7 as DD dogs. Hey I know the Sun Devis lost to San Diego State last week , as favs, but I'll forgive that effort as they were in a letdown situation after the physical win they notched the week before against Michigan state. Meanwhile, Washington is getting a lot of accolades from the pundits, but Im betting the sledding for the Huskies won't be easy in this spot after their exhausting physical win vs Utah last week. The Arizona State Sun Devils are 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in their the last twelve games against the Washington Huskies. WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games . CFB Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Arizona State to cover |
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09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan +12 v. San Diego State | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 60 h 10 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is highly under rated and staunch defensive team that can give San Diego State some issues here. I know the Aztecs pulled off the upset behind a backup QB last time out vs Arizona State, but now in a huge letdown situation , I expect SDState could find them selves getting frustrated by a very physical MAC team, with a never say die attitude that went into Purdue and upset them in their 2nd game of the season, allowing them just 19 points . It must be noted that Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS the last eight vs non conference opposition and are also 2-0 SUATS all-time against MWC opponents. E MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (E MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 46-17 L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Eastern Michigan to cover |
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09-22-18 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 56 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 58 h 20 m | Show | |
A lot of top tier defensive numbers might sway a weekend warrior to bet this tilt under. But Im betting these two capable attacks will knock down each others top tier stopping numbers this week and leave them temporarily shattered. I know both teams have quality defences or so it seems thus far, but they will be tested by the likes of RB Bryce Love of Stanford and QB Justin Herbert for Oregon . Stanford hung 49 points on the Ducks last season and are capable of a big output again, and the Ducks now with added fire power should be up to the task of doing some scoring of their own. STANFORD in their L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 65.5 ppg scored. OREGON in their L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 68.1 ppg scored. Oregon is 11-0 OVER at home coming off a game that went under the total by at least 10 points. Play on the OVER |
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09-22-18 | Texas Tech +14.5 v. Oklahoma State | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 37 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State was bypassed by most of the pundits last week in their game vs Boise State. I however, knew better, and recommend we bet on Gundy and company instead and I was right in my assessments .Now the Cowboys are getting a little to much love vs a Texas Tech team that is explosive offensively and capable of hanging with Oklahoma State , which they proved in a big DDwin vs a well balanced Houston side last week by a 63-49 count. Also I expect the Cowboys of Stillwater to be in a letdown situation after that huge win that saw them playing with chip on their proverbial shoulders. Note: The Cowboys have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as DD home chalk, while Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS L6 as conference dogs of 10 points or more. Although Oklahoma State has a nine-game winning streak in the series, the matchup has produced some quality shootouts recently. The Cowboys just squeezed by Texas Tech 45-44 in Stillwater in 2016 and escaped Lubbock with a 41-34 victory a year ago. Texas Tech is 12-0 ATS L/12 on the road coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points. OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points over the last 3 seasons. CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more ) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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09-22-18 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. UL-Lafayette | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 73 h 10 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina is one of those teams I have circled to better the pundits expect, especially with HC Joe Moglia on the sidelines. This coach is super intelligent and one of the best hidden secrets in the College game. They walloped their last two opponents UAB and Campbell by putting 47 and 58 points on the scoreboard and must not be underestimated vs a Ragin’ Cajuns side that is ranked 107th on d in the nation and from a betting perspective just 12-29-1 ATS mark at home in conference play, including 2-15-1 ATS when off a loss which is the case here as they are off a 56-10 loss to Miss State last week. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COASTAL CAROLINA) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Coastal Carolina to cover |
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09-22-18 | NC State v. Marshall +5.5 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 48 m | Show | |
The 2-0 Wolfpack had their game against ranked West Virginia at Raleigh. Cancelled last week because of Hurricane conditions. Now they go on the road to face Doc Holliday’s Marshall , which is never easy task especially for a rusty team that missed some practices . Note Marshall is defiant 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine appearances as non-conference home dogs and their L/6 tries vs ACC competition have not failed too cover with a 5-1-1 ATS mark. Huntington will be rocking today so when you come a knocking take the points with the Thundering Herd. MARSHALL is 7-0 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. NC STATE is 7-20 L/27 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less . 2-0 away teams in Game Three like NC State with a week off are just 14-28 ATS in non-conference games. Rested, undefeated non-conference home dogs like Marshall are 11-1 ATS against opponents playing off an ATS win. Play on Marshall to cover |
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09-22-18 | North Texas v. Liberty +13.5 | 47-7 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 58 m | Show | |
North Texas is off a huge win vs Arkansas last week, and the team as a whole after the wild celebration, and start to finish leave everything on the field type effort will now be in an emotional let down spot vs a Liberty team, that is famous for the amount of NFL players they have developed. It must be noted that North Texas are just 3-22 SU off a SU win as a dog and a current run of 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS away under the same perimeters. Meanwhile, Flames HC Turner Gill is a perfect 5-0 ATS in his career as a underdog against opposition off a SU/ATS victory and cover of 20 or more points which the young men from Denton achieved vs Arkansas last week. With Gill having 2 weeks to prepare for this tilt, Im betting he will have this young talented group ready to compete here on their own home field. LIBERTY is a perfect 12-0 ATS in non-conference games since 1992. Play on Liberty to cover |
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09-22-18 | Kansas +7.5 v. Baylor | 7-26 | Loss | -106 | 67 h 8 m | Show | |
Kansas is on a two game win streak, and Baylor was exposed last week in a 40-27 loss to a banged Duke team limping with numerous injuries. The Jayhawks continue to be under rated and disrespected because of a dismal long term record, but after annihilating back to back opponents, it sure looks like their on their way back to being competitive.Kansas is 12-4 SUATS L/16 in games following consecutive wins, while the Bad News Bears’ have failed to cover 14 of their L/19 as favs. BAYLOR is 7-20 ATS L/27 against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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09-22-18 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +17.5 | 49-21 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 36 m | Show | |
Im not going to argue about who the better team is here, its obvious Clemson is a national contender while , Georgia Tech is not. However, it must be noted that Tech behind a one way running game and ability to control time of possession, have the ability to stick close enough for a cover here vs a Dabo Swinney team that consistently seems to do just enough to get a victory especially on the road where they have failed to cover 14 of their L/15 as away chalk of 7 or more points. With a revenge game on board vs Syracuse up next Clemson might not be full focused here, giving us an edge with a underdog that has cashed 6 straight with conference revenge. ( Clemson beat Tech last season 24-10 at home) last season. Play on GTech to cover |
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09-22-18 | Texas A&M +27 v. Alabama | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 45 h 58 m | Show | |
Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in Game Four of the season, and Jimbo Fisher is 10-2 SU versus SEC opponents, including 4-0 SUATS away. The Aggies played Clemson tough in their first game of the season covering while making Clemson work for the win. Now here on the road it will be a lot tougher, but thanks to Alabamas pounding of opponents to this point in the season the price tag attached to them is high and there is value taking the points here behind a very well coached team. TEXAS A&M is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. After consecutive blowout wins against Northwestern State (59-7) and ULM (48-10), Texas A&M is fifth in the nation in total offense, averaging 596.3 yards per game. It's one of four offenses that rank in the top 25 in both rushing and passing (Houston, Ohio State and Oklahoma State ) nd have the ability to make this close. CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 42-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas A&M to cover |
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09-22-18 | Louisville +5 v. Virginia | 3-27 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 60 m | Show | |
Both these teams according to my power rankings have not performed up tot heir charts. Yes, I know Louisville has won 2 row, with the only excusable loss coming to Alabama, and Indiana 3 in a row. But those wins by both teams have come vs teams they were expected to beat, and Virginia despite of beating Ohio of the Mac last week in convincing fashion , are still not performing at an optimal level. After analysing head to head strengths and weaknesses , Im sticking to my preseason assessments, that would make the Cardinal the superior team even here in enemy territory. Louisville is 15-0 ATS L/15 on the road when they failed to cover by at least seven points last game. CFB home team (VIRGINIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 18-46 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Louisville to cover |
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09-22-18 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 55 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 14 m | Show | |
After getting beaten up on by Alabama in their first game the Cards have tightened up their D, and have allowed a total of 24 points in their last two games both wins ( 14 ppg) .That formula for success looks to remain in place this week vs a Virginia team that scored 45 points in a win vs Ohio last week. HC Mendenhall was not completely happy with the Cavs efforts because of sloppy play and turnovers, and will have his side primed to play a more staunch brand of defensive ball in this tilt. Im betting on both these scenarios to help keep this tilt on the low side of the Total. VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Virginia has gone under 12 straight times coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points which happened vs Ohio U last time out. Play UNDER |
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09-22-18 | Buffalo -5.5 v. Rutgers | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 99 h 3 m | Show | |
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are off back to back destructions vs Kansas Jayhawks and the Ohio State Buckeyes and have given up a combined 107 points in their last two games. The Buffalo Bulls of the MAC might not inspire many bettors, but this team is explosive offensively and dangerous and more than capable of stopping Rutgers cold, and also putting a DD beating on them, even here on the road. The Bulls have averaged 39.7 ppg this season, and can match that output today vs a very bad Rutgers D that is allowing 38 points and 430.7 yards per game. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. RUTGERS is 0-6 ATS off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons and is 2-14 ATS L/16 in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game . CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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09-22-18 | Ohio v. Cincinnati -7 | 30-34 | Loss | -112 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Cincinnati D, is ranked 2nd in the nation right now and their ground game is averaging 5 yards per carry. I expect the Bearcats will pound away here and eat up clock time while their own D keeps Solichs offense off the field consistently which will mess with the Bobcats fluidity which in turn will see them frustrated. Cincinnati continues to roll, on their way to their 4th straight win and cover. Cincinnati is 21-2 L/23 vs MAC opponents SU. CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 with the average margin of victory combing by 20.6 ppg. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is a trap game for Notre Dame, and Im confident they don't deserve their high ranking, Some of the interesting factors that have me backing Wake here this week are listed below... Wake Forest (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) has covered the spread in its last 11 straight games against ranked opponents. Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS), owns a tight 6.8 average margin of victory in its last 10 road ACC games dating back over the L/10 seasons.Wake Forest is 12-1 ATS with revenge L/2 seasons,( lost last Years meeting 48-37 on the road but covered) and go against what looks to me to be an over rated and still jelling Irish team that despite of being undefeated are just 1-2 ATS while losing the stats wars in 2 of 3 games this season .It must also be noted that the lucky catholic boys have not registered more than 400 yards in any of their three victories which all came at home. Here on the road trouble could be brewing vs a Wake Forest side that can be explosive and competitive as was evident vs Boston College last time out. From a matchup persepctive ( difference maker) Wake Forest's rushing attack Im betting will gouge Notre Dame's wobbly defensive front. Wake Forest has gained 264 yards per game on the ground, while Notre Dame has allowed 107 rushing yards per game. ***Notre Dame is the highest-ranked non-conference opponent to visit Wake Forest since the Demon Deacons pulled a September 1996 shocker by toppling No. 13 Northwestern. There was also a 1979 upset of No. 13 Auburn. Last season Wake Forestupset No.25 ranked NC State. NOTRE DAME is 1-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 68-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC OVER 52.5 | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
Washington State plays a one way aerial attack offensive game and nothing will change today. Washington State is ranked 3rd in the country with 421 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, USC will be prepared to air out as well , as it seems that they can't get they're running game going. Since putting 41 points on the board in game 1 of the season USC has struggled to score , and need desperately to get their offence rolling and will be primed to put points on the board here. Washington State will answer back. Im recommending an over bet. WASHINGTON ST is 20-6 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992 with a combined average score of 59.3 ppg scored. CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (WASHINGTON ST) - with a defense - allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 43-16 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the OVER |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39 | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 50 h 37 m | Show | |
I was mildly surprised to Cleveland favoured by a FG or more when I looked at the early lines. They were -1 favs last year, vs the Colts, their only game as chalk , and that game flew over the total with 59 combined points going on the scoreboard. Despite of my initial observations I did concede that they have improved since last season, and the offence when given enough time should jell behind some improved parts and if they don't shoot themselves in the foot should have a chance to cover here tonight. However with this being the bad news/luck Browns Ill sit and wait this one on out for a side perspective. With that said, I am betting the Browns score in excess of 24 points here tonight while the Jets a team that scored 48 points in their opener should be good for around 21 points based on my varied power rankings in this spot. It must be noted that the L/6 times the Jets saw a less than 41 point total posted in their road games , that they have stayed OVER each time. NFL non-division home chalk like the Browns in Thursday night NFL tilts have gone OVER 11 of the L/12 times when the Total is in the range of 39 to 50 points. NFL Game Threes are 32-9-1 OVER since 2012 when the Total is listed at less than 41 points and have Gove OVER 18 of the L/22 times when the home team is favoured. NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 31-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate on the blind. NFL Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 45-17 OVERL/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the OVER |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -7 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 1 m | Show | |
Tulsa under HC Philip Montgomery has proven himself over rated, and he can't motivate his team to be consistent as was the case last week when they were upset at home by Arkansas State. The offence is not very efficient anymore and the defence, has proven insufficient more often then not. Against a hard working side like Temple that is off a big win vs Maryland last week, their in trouble. The Owls prevailed 43-22 in Tulsa to close the 2017 regular season and matchup well vs the visitors. TEMPLE is 12-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. TEMPLE is 15-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Play on Temple to cover |
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09-16-18 | Patriots -1 v. Jaguars | 20-31 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 14 m | Show | |
The Jags enter this game jacked up and ready to get revenge vs the Pats for last seasons play off elimination loss. But it must be noted that the Pats are not easily intimidated as is evident by a long standing trend that has shown them to be good bets in this situation. Note:the Patriots are 8-0 ATS when the line is within 3.5points of pick and their opponent is seeking revenge for a post season defeat . You have also remember that the Pats are the healthiest they have been in a long time and Gronkowski is said to be 100% which is a dangerous situation for all comers in the NFL. QB Tom Brady also looks like he's on a mission and off a stellar performance in week 1 vs the Texans. Not a good omen for a Jacksonville side that is 0-14 ATS when hosting a non-divisional op-ponent that is getting more than 65% of their first downs through the air. NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. England is 11-1 SU L/12 meetings in this series. Play on New England to cover |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals +14 v. Rams | 0-34 | Loss | -130 | 77 h 1 m | Show | |
The Rams did not look completely cohesive last week in their win vs the Oakland Raiders. I know they won by DDs, but their was still some issues especially early on in that tilt. This week against another side that is not considered very good, Im betting the Rams struggle again, to cover this big number even though they are at home. Arizona in their game vs Washington last week looked asleep at the wheel, mostly in the first half and allowed 30 first downs losing by a 24-6 count.That was the bad news, but the good news from a historical standpoint shows us that the Cardinals are 13-0 ATS L/13 as a underdog coming off a game where they allowed at least 22 first downs . Also the Cards D looked to get their footing in that loss last week, allowing just 3 points in the 2nd half which will give them stopping momentum coming into this tilt. Arizona has covered 6 straight as road opening underdogs. NFL Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Arizona Cards to cover |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 45.5 | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
The Cards have its of new key offensive weapons that need to time to get acclimated and gain chemistry, and I expect they will play this game conservatively behind a strong D, that despite of giving up 26 totals points in a loss last week allowed only 3 points in the 2nd half. I expect their D to once again stand tall vs the explosive Rams here today, while their own offense does a lot of field goal damage but very limited TD production. This Im betting will see this contest stay on the low side of the number. This series has gone under 6 straight times . More of the same here. NFL Division chalk of 11 points or more like the Rams have gone UNDER 8 straight times when the Total is 48 or less points. All Week Two underdogs who scored 10 pts roles as hosts In their first game are 9-1 UNDER dating back 5 seasons. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins UNDER 47 | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 74 h 49 m | Show | |
Alex Smith is type of QB that plays a short conservative style of football, and is well complemented by a quality consistent running game. The Skins coaching staff have implemented this type of game plan into their schemes as was evident in the Arizona win last week by a 24-6 count. Nothing changes this week vs Indianapolis.Smiths teams are have not gone above the Total in 10 straight tilts when coming off a victory where the QB threw for at least two touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball, the skins also shined, allowing just 145 passing yards and 213 total yards.The Redskins have gone under 11 straight times as a favorite after a game where they allowed less than 200 yards through the air. Im betting the Redksins succeed in slowing this game down to a crawl vs Colts side that has seen their L/7 as dogs stay under the total. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Texans v. Titans +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Tennessee was smashed in a 57-14 blowout loss to DeSaun Watson and the Texans last season.Im betting the Titans will have had this game circled for a long time now and be out looking for revenge and very primed for payback. Titans QB Marcus Mariota suffered an elbow injury in the 27-20 loss to the Dolphins last week but appeared on track to start against Houston after practicing fully on Wednesday , and will be ready to lead his team. Pros don't like to be embarrassed and Im betting on the avenging home team getting what they want here and that is redemption. TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 2-30 L/25 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the Tennessee Titans to cover |
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09-16-18 | Browns v. Saints UNDER 50 | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show | |
I think their has been an over reaction to New Orleans ugly outing in game 1 , when they lost in a 48-40 shootout vs Tampa Bay. Now after that PTSD type experience, I expect the Saints to be concentrated on taking care of the ball, vs a tough physical looking Cleveland defense that is very under rated. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of having some new offensive weapons in their tool box will take time to get those key pieces hitting on all cylinders, and for now will a lot quieter than some the pundits expect. With that said, Im betting on this combined score staying on the low side of the Total.All Week Two NFL home favorites of 8 points or more Totals line of 38 pts or more have gone under in 12 of the L/14 tilts dating back 8 seasons. Note: New Orleans has gone under in 9 straight games as chalk off a loss when they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has a third down conversion percentage less than 35.3%. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 44 | 21-27 | Loss | -107 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay took part in a crazy shootout out last week in New Orleans winning 48 -40 for a 88 totals points explosion . Now everyone and his dog is looking at the OVER. The linesmakers however, know better as they have key stats right in front of them, while the squares don't. This is a bait Total in my opinion, and offers up value to the under wagerer. It must be noted that NFL teams who allowed 40 or more points as visitors last week went under in 14 of their next 17 games. Also all NFL teams after away tilt vs the New Orleans Saints when the Total is 46 or less points have gone under 15 of the L/18 times. With the Eagles short handed on offence with QB Wentz and some key cogs out, they are playing a lot more conservatively , as was the case in their opener In holding decent Atlanta offence to just 12 points. Im betting on more of the same action here, in what will be a lower scoring affair. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Vikings v. Packers +4.5 | 29-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
The Green Bay Packers have double revenge on board for a pair of losses they suffered to Minnesota last season. With super star QB Aaron Rodgers upgraded to probable Sunday the Packers have a good chance to get some payback and redemption here today at Lam-beau Field. Note : Aaron Rodgers is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS at home during the first six games of the season. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 60% or better, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover |
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Philly is off a Thursday night win vs Atlanta (18-12). Which is a good omen for their oppostion today today as defending champions are 24-6 straight up in tilts when off a Thursday night contests, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven overall. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off an explosive effort and win vs New Orleans in their first game by a 48-40 count as underdogs behind the arm of veteran QB Fitzgerald. Unfortunately for Bugs supporters a repeat type performance Im betting are not in the cards as Fitzgerald has a history of a down performance after his team took a straight up win as pups going 1-10 SU/ATS in the follow up .TAMPA BAY is also 0-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons losing by an average of 6.1 ppg. TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. TB 19.5 Opp 26.9 (- TD + Diff) PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons average margin of victory 10 ppg. Tampa Bay is 4-17 SU all-time against defending Super Bowl champions. NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more point are just 5-26 SU L/5 seasons in the followup . Team 26.5 Opp 16.9. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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09-15-18 | Washington v. Utah +6.5 | 21-7 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 49 m | Show | |
Utah enters this game against Washington with revenge for a 33-30 loss last season, which flashes a go sign here on this bet , because of their proficiency in this role as is evident by a 5-1 ATS L/6 with conference revenge. The Utes won last time out but failed to cover, versus a though Northern Illinois side by a 17-6 count as 13 point road chalk. However it must also be noted that Utah HC Whittingham has cashed 13 of their L/14 off a ATS loss. Overall the Utes have recently also been a viable investment option when getting 5 or more points as a home underdog cashing 6 of their L/7 opportunities. Utahs Defence remains very solid, and here at home in a black out game where they have won 8. of their L/10 they look like live dogs that must be respected. UTAH is 15-3 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 17-45 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Utes to cover |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State -13 v. TCU | 40-28 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Alot of sharp bettors got down on what appeared to be a value line with a home team that won 11 games last season (TCU). But on futher review and a comparison of both teams strengths and weaknesses , it becomes failry obvious that the linemakers are actually short on this line, and it should be closer to -16 with visiting Ohio State according to my power rankings. Historically speaking Ohio State has been a solid bet on the road coveing 10 straight as away chalk or -17 or less and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 in their first road game of the season. The importance of this game is not essential to TCU Big 12 camapign this season, and with Texas on board next week, I'm betting the coaching staff have not been able to dedidcate as musch time as is needed to take on this type of explosive opponent. Note: TCU is 0-6 ATS L/6 before facing the Texas Longhorns and have only covered 1 of their L/5 head to heads with Big10 opposiiton. I know Urban Meyer is not on the sidelines but he still has his fingerprints all over this team, and is still pulling the strings. Bet on a conclusive Ohio State victory and cover. |
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09-15-18 | Eastern Washington +16.5 v. Washington State | 24-59 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Eastern Washington ranked 6th in FCS, recorded five sacks against Northern Arizona last week and are the type of defence that can cause problems for Washington State QB who has weak completion numbers (66,7%) and a below average offensive stats for a guy playing in Mike Leach's air raid system. Washington State offensive line has looked solid , and QB Gardner Minshew has not been sacked once, but still hurries his throws and has been intercepted 3 times already. Today against this type of aggressive D, their could easily be problems. Eastern Washington will primed to compete against instate rivals Cougars today, and Im betting they will get us a cover behind a balanced team with a solid QB in Gage Gubrud who owns has 9 TDs no interceptions so far this season. Play on Eastern Washington |
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09-15-18 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +22 | 62-7 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 25 m | Show | |
Ole Miss has looked horrendous on defence so far this season, and its obvious the talent level from the offensive side of the ball is far superior to that on the defensive side. Truth is Ole Miss has almost always won recruiting battles for WRs and top tier QBS, but have failed to land defensive 4 and 5 star recruits. But today I expect the D, to step up while the offence continues to do what they do best and that is score. Yes, even against their behemoth opponent Alabama. Ta'amu the Rebels QB is working with one of the top receiving corps in the nation. It is led by A.J Brown, who tops the SEC in receptions per game (7.5) and is second in receiving yards per game (125.5), eighth nationally. This offence can hang points on the best teams in the nation, and thats what I'm betting on here tonight, against a against an Alabama secondary with all new starters. When Alabama travelled here two years ago, it had to come from behind a 21-point deficit in the second quarter to pull off a wild a43-37 victory. In 2014-15, the Rebels pulled off back-to-back upsets of the Crimson Tide. Ole Miss 9-3 ATS as a underdog of more than 17 points, and 8-3 ATS as a underdog with conference revenge. CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (OLE MISS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 38-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Ole Miss to cover |
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09-15-18 | Houston v. Texas Tech UNDER 70.5 | 49-63 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 46 m | Show | |
When first looking at these teams its obvious a causal observer would expect a shoot out here today considering recent stats. But from a mathematical perspective which includes power ranking strengths and weaknesses it very much looks like the Total is getting a little bloated via mostly one way over action from the public. So in my usual contrarian fashion, Ill attack the number to the under. Houston is balanced on both sides of the ball, but defence is key their successes and failures. The Cougars have Outland Trophy-winning DT and future NFL draft pick Ed Oliver playing like his hairs on fire ,and have the best defensive line in the conference. . Houston also owns a talented secondary that are jelling and Im betting they will give Texas Tech passing game that has an unsettled quarterback situation some grief here today. Last year these teams took part in a closely contests 27-24 tilt, and I'm betting it will be a much lower scoring affair than the lines makers and public are expecting today. [QB] 09/09/2018 - McLane Carter is "?" Saturday vs Houston ( Ankle ) if he plays he will not be 100%. Look for Texas Tech to pound the ball on the ground more often which will also slow the game down and eat up a lot of clock time. Houston has gone under 10 straight. times by an average of 9.1 ppg coming off a home where they allowed at least 400 total yards. These teams have stayed under in 3 straight meetings. Play UNDER |
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09-15-18 | Boise State v. Oklahoma State -3 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 128 h 31 m | Show | |
Both these teams are off convincing wins last time out, and both are now 2-0. Both have explosive offences and top tier QBs leading the way. The difference maker will be home field advantage . With that said, Oklahoma State gets the nod in what the lines makers estimate will be a closely contested affair. OKLAHOMA ST is 90-62 ATS as a favorite since 1992. BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last few seasons.HC Harsin is 0-7 ATS after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach, of Boise State. OKLAHOMA ST is 30-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. CFB home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 30-8 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Oklahoma State |
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09-15-18 | LSU v. Auburn UNDER 45 | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
LSU put some points up against Miami Florida in their first game of the season and got the win, but here today on the road with inexperienced group and their scoring output vs Auburn 's staunch D, will be muted. Meanwhile, LSU as has almost always been the case continues to recruit strong defensive players, and are loaded again this season, as was evident when they shutout South Eastern Louisiana 31-0, which will be their strength here today vs Auburn side that has only once put 24 points on the board since 2000 in this series averaging just 18.2 ppg overall. Im betting this game will be a war in the trenches that stays on the low side side of the number. LSU is 9-1 UNDERoff a home win over the last 3 seasons and 7-0 UNDER after allowing less than 17 points . CFB Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (AUBURN) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 30-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (LSU) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 32-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-15-18 | SMU v. Michigan OVER 53 | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 55 h 40 m | Show | |
SMU has allowed 46 and 42 points in their first two games being an atrocious defence. Michigan is also capable of putting this many points on the board, if not more , behind Quarterback Shea Patterson who threw three touchdown passes in his home debut and has completed 32 of 47 passes to start the season. Sonny Dykes SMU are offensively orientated and will make Michigan staunch defence work hard to stop them, but should still have enough success especially against the 2nd stringers to help this tilt combine to see a score that eclipses the number.SMU has gone over in 11 straight games as a dog coming off a home game where they allowed at least 35 points eclipsing the total by ana average of more than 2 TDs, Play OVER |
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09-15-18 | Tulane v. UAB +4 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
UAB is off a loss to under rated Coastal Carolina last week by a 47-24 count . But they have proven to be a good bounce back side and are 19-4 ATS as home pups when coming off a loss. Tulane has looked good this season on offence behind top QB Johnathon Banks, but their defence is atrocious having allowed 953 yards in their first two games and are ranked 111th in the nation on defence and are less than viable road favs in their first game away from home this season. TULANE is 8-23 ATS L/30 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UAB) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 70-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on UAB to cover |
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09-15-18 | Hawaii +7 v. Army | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 121 h 40 m | Show | |
Hawaii has impressed me by starting their season at 3-0, behind an explosive and balanced offence. While Im not totally sold on them ,because of their far inconsistent defence I do like them to cover vs Army this week despite of being on the road. I know Armys option offence is hard to stop, but the Warriors can use the blue print that was successful in Game 1 as they had success outpointing another option based offence owned by Colorado State . This Warriors team can burn you and so many ways one Im betting it will that attack that allows them help us cash a ticket this Saturday. Monken is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home as the coach of Army. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 37-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. CFB road team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more YPP) against a team with a terrible defense ( 6.2 YPP or more ), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 40-4 SU L/27 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors on the blind which give credence to us taking the points here this week. Play on Hawaii to cover |
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09-15-18 | Rutgers v. Kansas -3 | 14-55 | Win | 100 | 97 h 30 m | Show | |
We have a significant power ranking increase registered for Kansas after going into Central Michigan and hammering them by a 32-7 count. Call me crazy but this team might actually be competitive going forward after a long embarrassing drought. I'm betting Kansas can make Rutgers one-dimensional by stopping the run, as QB Sitkowski is currently questionable with an arm injury I know some might call me continue to call me a lunatic for laying points with Kansas but unbelievably to some they are capable of garnering a win vs a Rutgers side that could be emotionally let down after being humiliated 52-3 last week by Ohio State. CFB road team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are just 2-36 SU in their next game L/27 seasons for a go against 95% conversion rate for bettors. The average margin of victory was 17.6 ppg) Play on Kansas to cover |
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09-15-18 | Miami-FL v. Toledo +11 | 49-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 27 m | Show | |
Toledo, 20-7 SU in two seasons under HC Jason Candle and must be respected as a viable football program especially when playing here in the Glass Bowl. Meanwhile, Miami their opponents despite of pasting Savannah State last time out 77-0 showed some weakness in game 1 of their schedule vs LSU losing in DD fashion. Not all is perfect with Mark Richts football program and despite of good recruiting classes this steam just can't seem to get over the hump especially on the road. It must be noted Toledo is 5-1 ATS L/6 at home when they own a winning record which they have including last weeks 66-3 win vs VMI. Note: TOLEDO is 27-8 ATS after a win by 28 or more points since 1992.TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.TOLEDO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Toledo is 8-0 ATS L/8 covering my more than 8.5 ppg at home coming off a game where they allowed less than 200 passing yards Home teams coming off a win by more than 35 points are 748-600-32 ATS for a quality long term winning bet. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 31-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Toledo to cover |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +6 | 41-34 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 59 m | Show | |
Boston College has come a long way over the last few seasons. However, I was still surprised to see them build into a market road favorite against a under valued Wake Forest team that has the ability to blast away offensively with the best of teams, including Boston College even without the suspended QB Kendal Hinton in the lineup. I expect the Demon Deacons to stretch the field vs BC via the run game , and than use that option behind a good looking freshman QB Sam Hartman to open up down field against a suspect secondary that is the weakest part of the defence as was the case vs Umass in week 1. Look for star WR Greg Dorch to so some damage here today and for Wake Forest to keep this game close enough to possibly pull off the upset. WAKE FOREST is 11-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-18 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better are 37-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous games are 22-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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09-09-18 | Bears +8.5 v. Packers | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 86 h 55 m | Show | |
The Packers have owned the Bears over the last couple of seasons. With the Vikings on board next week , for the Cheese Heads a look ahead situation vs a top tier Minnesota Vikings team could mess with the coaching staff and players being fully prepared for this tilt. The Bears talent level is increasing and their ability to even pull off a straight up victory here on the road should not be underestimated . Look for a Bears defence that was already solid in the past to be even tougher now with Khalil Mack in the fold, and for the usually conservative offence under the tutelage of new HC and former KC offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to be much more cohesive behind the arm of the talented QB Mitch Trubisky. NFL Home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 87-141 L/34 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers OVER 47 | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 80 h 19 m | Show | |
The combination of a new coach with offensive tendencies at the helm of the Chicago Bears gives me confidence they can do some damage here tonight. Also as is almost always the case an Aaron Rodgers led offence should as well be more capable of making some noise here tonight in Cheeseville. My projections have both Green Bay and Chicago putting up more than 20 points. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 54.5 ppg. The Packers have gone over 16 straight times as a favorite of more than six points vs a team with the same record with no game seeing less than 50 points go on the board.Week One DIVISION home favorites of 1 or more points with an OU line of 42 or more pts and 53 or less pts have gone under 8 of the L/9 times. Play OVER |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -119 | 80 h 4 m | Show | |
The lines makers expect this to be a closely contested game with one mistake possibly costing the other side to lose. Expect both to play conservatively and for defence to be at the forefront. In preseason play Denver allowed less points each time out, and the defence looks stable and on a upward trajectory heading into their home opener. Seattle has ben a defence first team for a long time and nothing changes today Both have trouble scoring at the best of times, and this tilt will be no different. Defence , Defence and more Defence. Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 road games . Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games overall. SEATTLE is 31-13 L/44 UNDER in road games in September games with the average combined score with a combined average of 33.7 ppg going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game are 62-29 UNDER L/34 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Chargers | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 8 m | Show | |
The Chargers started slow last season, losing their first 4 games and despite of wanting to get off to a better start this season will be hard pressed to do so, vs a under rated KC Chiefs team that is well coached and capable of making life difficult for them. From a historical perspective the Chiefs have covered 5 straight here in Southern California , and from a league wide trends data base it must be noted that NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - first 2 weeks of the year, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 4-23 ATSL/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Add to that Andy Reid is 5-1 ATS in the first month of the reg season in his L/6 divisional classes and we have a live dog to back here. KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. KC to cover |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 44.5 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show | |
The Steelers enter this game against the Cleveland Browns with recent history of playing more conservatively on the road than at home especially when favoured. The Steelers have not gone OVER in 13 straight games (0-12-1 O/U) over the L/ 2seasons as -3 or more road chalk . Today they do go against a Cleveland team that should be more cohesive offensively as the season progresses and the new pieces jell thanks to some of the top tier talent they have added, but for now their a work and progress and recently the Browns have seen only 1 of their L/12 home games eclipse the total with a combined average of just 35.6 ppg scored. Here in week 1 I expect a defensive type North division affair that stays on the low side of the number. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.CLEVELAND is 6-0 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32 ppg scored. Injury updates that Im betting effect this total score.[WR] 08/03/2018 - Antonio Brown is probable Sunday vs Cleveland ( Quad) Not 100% [RB] 09/03/2018 - Le'Veon Bell is doubtful Sunday vs Cleveland. Play UNDER |
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09-09-18 | 49ers +7 v. Vikings | 16-24 | Loss | -130 | 76 h 22 m | Show | |
Minnesota is off an amazing season, going 13-3 SU and now once again look like one of the deepest teams in the conference. But it must be noted that teams in week 1 with 4 or fewer losses (including playoffs)last season are 35-48-2 ATS and far from sure bets coming into the following campaign. Also teams in week one at home who won 7 or 8 games (including playoffs) last season are just 30-41-1 ATS L/72. Add to that Minnesota will have a new QB in Cousins who is 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers at the helm of the offence and it may take time to find his groove, behind a offensive line with some weaknesses Note: Nick Easton, the starting left guard and backup center, is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a bulging disk in his neck. This is also a pivot that has shown a lot of inconsistencies in the past .Meanwhile, San Francisco finished last season winning their L/5 games, and must not be underestimated on the road where they have played their best football of late as is evident by a 7-2 ATS mark in their L/9 away. Note: 49ers QB Jimmy Garappolo (7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as a starter). 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in week 1. Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins +2 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a weak road favorite we are seeing here with Tennessee. Despite of being in the post season last year, the Titans were lucky to be there after being out stated and out scored overall by a total of 38 points on the season. It must be noted that Tennessee has not fared well in the past against AFC opposition failing to cash in 7 of their L/8 ATS . Meanwhile Miami is 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 in season openers . Tennessee was 0-4 in the preseason which is not a good omen for a sudden turnaround today vs a desperate Miami team with a veteran QB at the helm in Tannehill. TENNESSEE is 112-146 ATS against conference opponents since 1992. Home teams in week one in games with a total of 46 or more are 48- 35-2 ATS. Teams in week 1 which lost 10 or more games last season against a team that did not lose more than 9 games are 106-67-2 ATS L/175 . Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 43.5 | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 65 h 13 m | Show | |
Last season the Giants struggled to score putting up just 16 ppg , going against a tough Jacksonville D that allowed 18 points a game last season, Im betting the Gmens offence begins this season struggling again. With that said, look for a low scoring affair that stays on the low side of the Total. All Week One teams who won 4 or less games last year vs an AFC opponent when the OU line is in the range of 42-49 points are 4-17-1 UNDER since the 2006 campaign. ( Giants qualify)All Week One NFC home dogs like the Giants are 4-17 L/21 UNDER dating back to the 2014 season. Week One non division road chalk like the Jags are 8-27-1 UNDER L/19 seasons. NY GIANTS are 22-11 UNDER in all lined games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.7 ppg going on the board.NY GIANTS are 16-6 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 37.7 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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09-09-18 | Rice +18.5 v. Hawaii | 29-43 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
09-08-18 | Rice +17.5 v. Hawaii | 29-43 | Win | 100 | 60 h 18 m | Show | |
Rice played a solid game vs a balanced Houston team on the road last week, and were competitive for almost 3 quarters before falling apart late for a 45-27 loss covering as 25 point dogs. The game was a lot closer than the final score might indicate , as Rice showed some explosive offensive schemes in that back and forth battle. Meanwhile, their opposition this week Hawaii has played some impressive offensive football in their first two weeks of the season vs Navy last week at home and Colorado State in their road opener putting up, 59 and 43 points in victories. The Warriors Achilles heel as has been the case in recent past campaigns remains their defence, as they allowed an average of 37.5 ppg in those two above mentioned tilts. Tonight in what could be an emotional letdown spot for the Warriors against a Rice squad that can put points up on the board in a hurry, Im betting their in trouble and a win if they can get it, will not come without some blood , sweat and tears. Hawaii is 0-6 ATS L/6 after accumulating 450 or more yards of offence in two straight games. Rice is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their L/7 visits to Paradise Island. CFB road team vs. the money line (RICE) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team allowing 34 ppg or more, after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games 36-4 SU L/27 seasons. Play on Rice to cover |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +7 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 61 h 38 m | Show | |
The Sun Devils looked great last week in a win vs Texas San Antonio. Herm Edwards the new HC of the Devils has not lost his touch since an extended departure from the College football scene. It must be noted that Arizona State have covered 4 straight as home undedogs of 7 or more points, and have won 10 straight at home all-time versus the Big Ten. Meanwhile, we know that the Spartans under HC DAtonio are slow starters and just got by Utah state last week and are just 0-6 ATS their last six versus the Pac-12 and far from solid road favs here in this spot. ARIZONA ST is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - off a home win, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 8-30 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference game are 30-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arizona State to cover |
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09-08-18 | Penn State v. Pittsburgh +9.5 | 51-6 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 30 m | Show | |
Penn State was involved in a hard fought game vs Appalachian State last time out and needed a late score to cover. That game could still be effecting them and a emotional letdown scenario is not out of the question vs a another gritty program. Last season in Happy Valley Pittsburgh actually out gained the Lions despite of losing on the scoreboard and are 5-0-1 ATSL/6 in this series. You can bet HC Narduzzi and company behind what should be a solid run game to be primed on pulling of the upset vs their instate rivals and be sky high here emotionally today. It must be noted that Penn State has covered just once in their L/10 as -14 or less road chalk. The Panthers are also 11-0-1 ATS L/12 as home dogs of 8 or more points and get my support again as home pups. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 10-33 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - off a home win, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 8-30 ATS L/510seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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09-08-18 | Clemson v. Texas A&M +12.5 | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 38 m | Show | |
Needless to say this is a huge game for Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Clemson will not be a hyped up in this non conference affair. I believe in Fisher as a DD home dog, and feel his team has what it takes to cover vs this National championship contender. HC of Texas A&M is 45-8 SU all-time in home games in his career including 22-1 SU in games in which his teams are undefeated meanwhile, Clemson is 0-14-1 ATS failing to cover by more than 10 ppg since the 2000 campaign as a road favorite coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least six points which was the case on a -51 line vs Furman last week. Play on the Texas A&M Aggies |
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09-08-18 | UL-Monroe +6 v. Southern Miss | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show | |
The LA Monroe Warhawks have 17 returning starters in the fold, and must not be underestimated here this week vs their hosts Southern Miss side with just 9 returning starters. Both own wins vs lower tier teams in their season debuts, and both look capable enough to put points on the board in what should be a hard fought back and forth affair that could easily be decided by a late scoring drive. LA MONROE is 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.LA MONROE is 20-6 ATS L/26 in road games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. SOUTHERN MISS is 3-14 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. CFB team (LA MONROE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters - weeks 1-2 are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Monroe to cover |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
We all know how good a program and team Georgia football will field here today, but this is a long time rivalry that is emotional, and I expect a full house here today to back the Gamecocks. Like last season, we can expect a physical game , that I'm betting actually favours South Carolina to cover. Georgia won last years battle 24-10 on their own home turf, but now with the border war changing venues we will take the points. Note: Georgia has failed to cover 5 straight in road openers if they are DD chalk kickoff. South Carolina is 8-3 ATS in this series, and 5-1-1 ATS with conference revenge. Play on South Carolina to cover |
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09-08-18 | Arkansas State +37 v. Alabama | 7-57 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show | |
Arkansas State is a program that has been highly competitive recently and off a win in game 1 of their season and Im betting they can stay within the number here this week, vs a No.1 ranked Alabama team that will be focused on staying healthy before their SEC opener next week vs Ole Miss. Nick Saban is 0-5 ATS in his career with Alabama as a non-conference favorite of more than 28 points before his SEC opener when facing an opponent coming off a victory and is also just 1-11 ATS as non conference home chalk of 28 points or more and . It must also be pointed out that the Arkansas State Red Wolves have lost just 1 game of their last 159 games by more than 37 points. CFB Underdog of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-7 ATS L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Arkansas State to cover |
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09-08-18 | Holy Cross v. Boston College UNDER 51.5 | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
In their first game of the season Boston College surprisingly opening up their schemes and put on a ferocious aerial assault instead of concentrating on their vaunted ground attack. The coaching staff did however, look concerned about the Defensive lapses vs UMass, and now want to slow the game down and control pace which hopefully gets their stoppers focused again. But I expect their ground game to be the key for them this week against Holy Cross as the coaching staff will want QB Anthony Brown who suffered a knee injury last season to take less punishment this week before the conference schedule begins as they also know that 3 of their next 4 games will be taking place on the road. These are two old regional rivals so I won't be surprised if this is a physical game that stays on the low side of the number. Note Holy Cross shut out Colgate in the 2nd half of last weeks 24-17 loss to Colgate. Boston College have under 15 straight times by an average 11.7 ppg, 2008 com-ing off a game as a home favorite where they forced at least three turnovers which happened in your opener . the average combined score of these games clicking at 34.7 ppg with non of the games eclipsing this 51 point plateau. Play UNDER |
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09-08-18 | Duke v. Northwestern -3 | 21-7 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 54 m | Show | |
This one is a revenge situation that sets up from last season where Duke mercilessly smashed Northwestern, 41- 17, as a 2-point home underdog. Revenge is one very powerful motivational factor as stated in many data bases including the bible. Quote" “Vengeance is mine; I will repay. End Quote: That will be the Northwestern moto this week. |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3 v. LSU | 17-33 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX LSU’s HC Ed Orgeron has his hands full here tonight in the opener against Miami Fl, thanks to the offseason personnel losses that saw 14 starters and 18 players from the 2-deep depart. He has a new offensive coordinator and just named its starter Monday -- junior Joe Burrow, a graduate transfer from Ohio State who will be making his first collegiate start. Meanwhile, Miami and their top tier HC Mark Richt goes with fifth-year senior and returning starter at quarterback in Malik Rosier. The Canes are also chalk loaded full of talent after another solid recruiting class, and Im betting will have this rebuilding LSU team on their heels. Canes 8-1-1 ATS as non-conference chalk of 7 or less points.LSU is 1-8 ATS L/9 in September games .Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games in all games he has coached since 1992. Mark Richt of the Canes owns. a 21-10 SU record in non conference action away from home.
Play on the Miami Canes to cover , |
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09-01-18 | Navy -11 v. Hawaii | 41-59 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 34 m | Show | |
Hawaii might of taken advantage of rebuilding Colorado State program for a win on the road last week 43-34, but now on tired legs after back and forth trips from Paradise Island to the mainland and than back to Paradise Island again, the Warriors will now have to contend with a solid Navy football program that will not be over looking them because of the irrationally exuberant headlines Hawaiis football program has been featured in all week. The Midshipan will be especially primed to capture a conclusive victory here after losing 6 of their L/7 games last season.Mind you two of those losses were to UCF and Notre Dame where they did not look out of place.The Midshipman did show their metal with a 49-7 win vs Virginia in their Bowl game, and are still steaming and ready to roll here's vs this Saturday night in the final game of the day. Im betting this will one of Niumatalolo’s most explosive teams yet and that the Warriors despite of vast coaching and tempo changes on offence are not ready to compete with this kind of opponent just yet. HAWAII is 0-7 ATS after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 45-15 ATS L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Navy to cover |
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09-01-18 | SMU +5.5 v. North Texas | 23-46 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
The Ponies make their debut under new head coach Sonny Dykes this Saturday at North Texas. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but Im betting SMU has made more efficient upgrades especially on D in the off season behind former Northern Illinois defensive coordinator Kevin Kane and the offence under take no prisoners style of play implemented by Dykes leadership will see the Mustangs continue to roll. I feel strongly that SMU has a outright chance at victory, partly because I feel North Texas will have problems plugging the run via 3-3-5 defensive scheme and ha a tendency of giving up huge plays. NORTH TEXAS is 8-20 ATS L/28 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 . The Mustangs have beaten UNT three consecutive times overall and lead the all-time series 31-5-1. Play on SMU to cover |
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09-01-18 | Cincinnati +15.5 v. UCLA | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 43 m | Show | |
Chip Kelly the former Oregon HC Is now back in the Pac-12 . His OU team was dominating, but I'm betting his task here at UCLA will be a daunting one this season, especially on defense where this Bruins football program looked atrocious last season especially vs the run, ranking last among power 5 teams . Kelley from a wagering perspective was not a particularly good bet outside of his conference in his tenure with the Ducks, going just 6-7 ATS, including 1-3 ATS in season opening battles . On the flipside Bearcats HC Luke Fickell has put together a truly talented and under rated group here behind some very good recruiting classes and I'm betting this Cincinnati Bearcats teams is being seriously underestimated , while Chip and his ultra talented but still less than cohesive group are over rated at this point in the season. UCLA is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons. CFB home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - poor rushing defense from last season - allowed 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, with 5 offensive starters returning are just 9-22 SU L/5 seasons, with the average point differential clicking in at 5.9 ppg. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10.5 | 56-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 20 m | Show | |
Two seasons ago, Troy closed as 35-point underdogs at Clemson and covered with extraordinary ease in a hard fought 30-24 loss. Last year, they fearlessly went into Death Valley and upset LSU, 24- 21, as 20.5-point pups Now with revenge on board for a a season opening 24-13 home loss to the Broncos in 2017 I expect they will be primed to be competitive again . I know BSU was ranked No. 22 in the preseason AP poll and returning senior QB Brett Rypien, is a stud QB. But it must be noted that Troy are no pushovers , and are 9-0 ATS record as underdog of 9 or more points at Veterans Memorial Stadium and this will be their first home dog situation since the 20015 season.. It would also be important to point out that Bryan Harsin’s Broncos have covered only 1 of their L/5 ATS in season openers the last five years, and 4-10 ATS as double-digit chalk versus an opponent that won 10 or more games the previous season. Troy is a team that won 25 of their 31 overall and must be respected here as home dogs. Yes even a against this powerful Boise group. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference game are 30-6 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, in non-conference games are 42-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Troy to cover |
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09-01-18 | Northern Illinois +10.5 v. Iowa | 7-33 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 20 m | Show | |
The Hawkeyes should not be favoured by this much. The opening line was bad, and has been bet down, and I'm betting taking 10 points with Northern Illinois also offers value. Iowa has lost a lot form last years team. and have been far from good bets in the past in non conference openers going just 3-11 ATS at home when they are less 16 point chalk .Meanwhile, NIU is 30-10 SU and 27-11-2 ATS in its last forty road games and are 14-4 ATS as double-digit non-conference road dogs the last 18 seasons. including 11- 1 ATS in their L/12 Big 12 battles . HC Ferentiz and company also own a ugly 1-5 ATS record in its last six games against MAC opponents and are 0-3 ATS in season openers. The last time these teams opened against each other in 2012-13 the two tilts were decided by a total of just 4 points and Im betting another very close game here behind a very improved Northern Illinois defence. N ILLINOIS is 13-4 ATS L/17 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. CFB road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N ILLINOIS) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 42-13 ATS L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Northern Illinois to cover |
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09-01-18 | Texas -13 v. Maryland | 29-34 | Loss | -116 | 73 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a pure and simple situation that will see Texas focused on getting some payback for last seasons humiliating loss at home to this same Maryland program. Its not usually my thing to lay almost two touchdowns on the road between power 5 teams, but this one stands out as being exceptional situation and worth laying the lumber. Texas will primed on taking a merciless stance here today on their way to a one sided beatdown of mammoth proportions. Note: Suspended HC DJ Durkins has had a lot of issues that have effected this Terps group mentality, and I expect we see that here today. I don't think interim HC and OC Matt Canada will have this team ready to compete at the level it needs to not to be embarrassed today. Maryland football program failed to cover 34 of their L/36 straight up non-conference home or neutral field losses, including 23 straight ATS losses under these perimeters. Texas head coach Herman is 9-3 SUATS when seeking revenge, including 10-1 ATS in non-conference games, and a perfect 5-0 ATS as a visitor. Play on Texas to cover |
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09-01-18 | Texas State +17 v. Rutgers | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
After a few of ugly seasons, since going FBS football, Texas State has finally tapped into a deep Texas talent pool and had a couple of very good recruiting classes with 17 3star recruits in the lineup , which has them flying in under the radar in this opener vs Rutgers side that averaged just 18 PPG (120th), 115.58 PYPG (124th) and 147.08 RYPG (86th) on offence .With an inexperienced TD at the helm of offence in QB Sitkowski I'm betting things will not get much better for the Scarlet Knights even with their new OC McNutty making calls. Note:Less than two weeks before the start of the year, the Scarlet Knights saw eight players - all from the defensive side of the ball - charged for their alleged involvement in a credit-card fraud scheme. These kids set a tone in the lockeroom that won't be easy erased when the on field group takes to the field today. Rutgers is 3-8 ATS L/11 as a DD fav, and in no way to they inspire me, especially vs a Texas State Defence that has shown vast improvement over the last few seasons. Play on Texas State to cover |
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09-01-18 | Coastal Carolina +30 v. South Carolina | 15-49 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
South Carolina goes against instate opponent Coastal Carolina here today in what must be looked at as a tuneup game for the Gamecocks and super bowl type game for Coastal Carolina. |
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08-31-18 | San Diego State +14.5 v. Stanford | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 46 m | Show | |
San Diego State Rbs Rashaad Penny(2248 ry) and Juwan Washington (759 ry) will be primed to run wild this week, vs a Stanford D, that no longer looks as formidable as it once did. Last season Stanford performed well below expectations defensively and permitted a whopping 35 ppg in their final two games of the season, and now with Justin Reid and DT Harrison Phillips gone to the NFL via the draft, things don't likely look to get much better. San Diego State plays the type of ball that can keep them in this tilt till the end , and get us the cover. STANFORDs last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a average margin of victory coming by 13.3 ppg, which gives us value with the underdog based on line divergence. CFB team (STANFORD) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are just 7-30 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on SD State to cover |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6.5 v. Tulane | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 43 m | Show | |
This one goes like this , Tulane owns a shaky run D , and it did not do well vs good run teams last season. Things don't look to get much better this season, and Wake Forest will take advantage of this and pound the ball on the ground mercilessly right out of the gate, behind 5 retuning starters and than as tilt progresses use the option to do further damage through the air. Yes even with Sam Hartman taking snaps, thanks to his ability to hit WR Greg Dorch who can also explode when playing on special teams, especially vs a revamped Tulane secondary. Willie Fritz and company have their hands full with a under rated and explosive Wake Forest football program today . With that said lay the points with the Demon Deacons on the road. TULANE is 2-11 ATS against ACC opponents since 1992. ACC 40.8 Tulane 13.1 Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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08-30-18 | Central Florida v. Connecticut UNDER 74.5 | 56-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show | |
A lot of times certain matchups seem obvious based on expectations . However, the obvious is not always as straight forward as many might think. Central Florida blew through opposing football programs last season, via an explosive offensive attack , and should once again field a up tempo style assault behind new head coach and former Missouri HC Heupel who is all about tempo. This right out of the gate has everyone giddy about the Knights offensive abilities and their chances for a big night against a young rebuilding UConn football program that stunk onnD last season. While UCF despite of some key roster losses are still very talented ,putting up more than 48 points will be difficult, as I expect the Huskies will play a very conservative game plan, that will try to grind clock time down quickly in an attempt to stay competitive. With that said, it must be noted that Uconns HC Eudsall teams play their best ball, when the running game is in a groove as he consistently preaches clock and tempo control something he employs to get an edge on the talent gap he has experienced in the past as was evident when he was a coach at Maryland. Last season, The Huskies failed to score more than 24 points in any of the last six games last season a continuation is expected here. UCF won a 49-23 decision at home vs UConn last season with a 72 combined points scored and I'm bettong both were more cohesive last season then they will this season, thus a combined score in the mid to higher 60s would me a much closer correlated event than more than 72+ point out put. These two opposing game plans.... one fast and one slow, have my scoring projections consistently staying on the low side of this total. I have the Knights putting up between 41 and 47 points, while Connecticut should be able to put up no more than 20-24 points which co ordinated closely to the point spread differentials. Play on on the UNDER |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State OVER 56 | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
Offences usually start slow, and defences usually are more stable early on in the season, but Im betting the offences take centre stage here in this NCAAF opener. Colorado's offense was humming last season, pilling up a yards by the ton, averaging a school-record 492.5 yards per game. I know they have to replace some key ingredients, at quarterback, running back their top receiver and top tight end from a year ago and three new starters on the offensive line, but the replacements despite of being inexperienced to an extent are just as talented according to my scouting reports and in some cases maybe better. Meanwhile Colorado States D, remains a issue, and now need to replace five starters from a unit that permitted 431.6 yards and 27.8 points per game a year ago. These guys are not as experienced or talented in my opinion as the ones that left. Add to that I'm also not impressed by the Rams by the arrival of former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Jancek's Colorado Springs . He has hands full, and a recruiting class on D, far less talented then he had in Tennessee. On the flipside,Hawaii will incorporate the run-and-shoot in an attempt to get the Warriors back to what makes them entertaining . Look for sophomore QB Cole McDonald and freshman Chevan Cordeiro who have been named as co-starters at quarterback, to surprise some folks here this week and do a lot more damage than the pundits and lines makers expect. Meanwhile, Hawaii's D, that struggled last season, now has to replace their best linemen and defensive backs and could easily get run over here today, in what Im betting will be a high scoring affair that eclipses the number. My projections estimate both teams will score at 28 points or more.HAWAII is 6-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 79.8 ppg going on the board.COLORADO ST is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 88.6 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4.5 | 41-33 | Loss | -109 | 219 h 42 m | Show | |
Super Bowl 52 - US Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN New England's super star QB Tom Brady despite of being able to perform miracle after football miracle, via amazing comebacks, must finally be feeling like he and his team mates need to play a complete start to finish game, and stop messing around with fate. With that said, I expect the 40 year old Phenom, to be extremely focused and prepared to lay down a big beat down vs a Philadelphia side that is over matched and in an emotional letdown situation after surprising Minnesota in DD blowout in their Conference championship game .That aforementioned victory saw the Eagles exert a lot of energy in a stadium that was rocking and shaking all night long with extremely exuberant fans. The Party in the City of brotherly love, after wards was enormous, and the players now exhausted and ready to go into Super Bowl preparations, will now be even more drained by the time game time arrives. Now against what I am betting is a very focused and experienced Patriots team that been here before, I expect we will see their superior overall talent in most facets of this game, including the all important Head Coach position on full display this Sunday. Everyone loves an underdog, but when push comes to shove, the defending champs must be respected on any line of a TD or less and are my pick to win and cover and get yet another Super Bowl ring. NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play and is 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. Belichick is 16-4 ATS L20 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game. PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games vs teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game. NFL team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 97-169 ATS L/34 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Update: I know the Pats previous Super Bowl wins have been close, but I'm betting that won't be the case this time around. Note: the straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS L/51. Play on the New England Patriots to cover |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 143 h 27 m | Show | |
NFC Championship Game
The Vikings are off a story book walk off win vs the New Orleans Saints last week. Now in a huge emotional letdown situation, I'm betting they will have problems dealing with a very under rated Philadelphia side that is being disrespected by many in the media. I know QB Nick Foles is not as good as the injured Carson Wentz, but he is still a viable enough NFL QB to be able to help his team move the chains. It must also be noted that the Eagles D, are no pushovers, ranking 4th in the league during the regular season allowing just 18.4 ppg and will give the Vikings offense a battle that they will not easily over come. With that said, I'm recommending we take the points in a game that could easily be decided by a late FG. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game. PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread . MINNESOTA is 4-13 ATS L/17 after leading their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half. Philadelphia is 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 at home in this series. NFL Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - off a upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams (75% or better) are 26-8 ATS L/34 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -8.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 140 h 20 m | Show | |
The Steelers looked ahead to what they thought would be a meeting with the New England Pats, and were left flat lined in their game against Jacksonville last Sunday. You would think the Jaguars would have learned their lesson and remained humble after posting the upset and Game and advancing to the AFC Championship Game . But it looks like they have not, as their already chirping in social media about taking New England out this week, and advancing to the Super Bowl. I like the Jaguars , but in no way shape or form do they matchup well against the Pats, and are fade material in this spot at 10 points or less according to my power rankings.
Update: No one knows how serious the supposed injury to Tom Brady's hand is, but one thing for sure, its not as bad as HC Billicheck and company are playing it up to be. This HC is the king of mind games, which makes me doubt the seriousness of this clip to Brady's hand in what was described as a very light collision in practice. New England has won 7 straight meetings in this series at home. Play on the Patriots to cover |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 105 h 49 m | Show | |
NFC Divisional Playoffs Minnesota has impressed me this season with their brand of smash mouth football, and offensive production. The Vikings rank No.1 in overall scoring and defense and out gained 14 of their L/16 opponents this season, showing us their dominance in the process. They owned the stats battle entering this tilt vs the Saints, going 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS and out yarded 11 of their L/12 opponents. With that said, I look for a the Vikings to come out here and move forward in explosive fashion as they attempt to host this years Super Bowl, (a first in NFL history). It must be noted that HC Mike Zimmer is a cover machine going 32-9 ATS lifetime vs non NFC North sides, including an amazing 18-3 ATS as hosts. Meanwhile, New Orleans despite of a strong campaign overall, reverted back to what my early season projections had suggested. Those estimations made the Saints an above average team , but not a over powering one. Their late season dive I'm betting is more indicative of their true abilities as they were just 2-5 ATS down the stretch and lost the stats battle in the 5 ATS losses. MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS L/17 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game .MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS in dome games this season.MINNESOTA is 9-0 ATS L/9 off a win against a division rival.MINNESOTA is 17-4 ATS L/21 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. HC Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games and is 17-6 ATS L/23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 15-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors. The Vikings are 17-0 ATS /16-1 SU at home off a game as a favorite in which they converted at least five third downs with the average margin of victory coming 17.6 ppg and average cover by 12.97 ppg. Lay the points with Minnesota to cover |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 57 m | Show | |
The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) visit Heinz Field to play the Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) in the Sunday's AFC Divisional Round. The Jaguars upset the Steelers 30-9 in Week 5 as 7.5-point road pups, behind rookie running back Leonard Fournette who had a season-high 181 yards and two touchdowns . The Jacksonville D, was also out standing and they all over Roethlisberger, as was evident by the veteran QB throwing 5 picks and getting sacked twice. Note:Roethlisberger was quick to praise the Jaguars' defense this week.QUOTE:"This is one of the best defenses I've ever played against," Roethlisberger said. END QUOTE: The Steelers finished the season ranked third in the NFL in passing yardage, with the Jaguars first in pass defense. The Jags also limited RB Le'Veon Bell to 47 yards on 15 carries n the above mentioned upset they pulled. Now fast forward to this matchup, and things may not get all that much better for the Steelers here against a team that style wise matches up very well against them. While I doubt Roethlisberger will as bad this time around, I'm betting the Steelers will not have an easy go of it against solid Jaguars D, and an the leagues No.1 run offense that when in gear can chew up a lot of yards on the ground and make life miserable for their opposition. Considering what my power rankings and matchup system vs system estimations suggest, a tilt that is a one possession game is a high probability outcome, which the linesmakers agree with me about. Thus taking a TD+ with the underdog makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Jaguars are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. AFC.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Jags are 4-1 ATS L/5 visits to Pittsburgh. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 73-38 L/34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 80 h 10 m | Show | |
Atlanta's top tier D ranked 8th in the league, I'm betting will give Philadelphia interim QB Foles fits this week. It must be noted Foles owns a lowly 27.8 QB rating according to the NFL official website, compared to the injured star Wentz's 75.8 QB rating. Meanwhile, Philadelphia despite of their big numbers with Wentz under center, also had a under appreciated D this season, ranking 4th overall in the league allowing 18.4 ppg and are more than capable of slowing the Falcons 15th ranked offensive attack and QB Ryan this this week. With that said, I'm expecting an old school type of tilt with a lot of smash mouth football and ground heavy football, that culminates in a lower scoring affair that remains on the low side of the Total. ATLANTA is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game this season and is 7-1 UNDER versus top tier offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game this season.ATLANTA is 10-0 UNDER off 4 or more consecutive unders over the last few seasons with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER L/6 in home games off a division game and 22-9 UNDER L/31 after a bye week with the combined average score clicking in at 39.7 ppg. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-9 UNDER 35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for Totals bettors. The Falcons are 13-0 UNDER vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions non of the 13 tilts eclipsed the 41 point plateau, with the combined average score clicking in at 34.2 ppg. Play UNDER |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 148 h 11 m | Show | |
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA After watching Georgia shoot it out with Oklahoma and win in OT it became obvious to me that this team, is really special, and can both play top tier defense and show case an explosive offense, which makes them extremely dangerous on both sides of the ball , and a bad matchup for Alabama . Meanwhile, Alabama despite of their over powering performance vs Clemson, still played a game in their comfort zone behind their trade mark defense , and methodical offense. It was how Saban and company have won games for a long time now. I also know the public has now piled all back onto the Tides bandwagon, but I'm betting Nick Saban's domination of college football could easily come to end today and could begin a down trend for Alabama football. Yes, this is definitely a contrarian view point,as I refuse to stay inside the box by following the mainstream medias viewpoint and instead look at all possible indicators and factors. Its hard betting against the Tide, but I am very impressed with Georgia's ability to play two way football, something Saban's side does not look capable of doing in their current form. It will be Georgia's superior offensive abilities that will be the difference maker here today. GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5or less yards per return. Bulldogs HC Smart is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. CFB Neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia to cover |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints OVER 48.5 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 3 m | Show | |
NFC Wildcard Playoffs The Saints have averaged 30 plus points at home this season, and I'm betting they will come close to that average here again behind star QB Drew Brees and a strong core of receivers. Meanwhile, QB Cam Newton and company will have to respond and open up the playbook or be blown out , which will result in a high scoring affair that eclipses the number. I know the media is telling us what a fine duo of defenses will be playing each other, in the post season matchup, but it must be noted that Carolina was out yarded by -35 net YPG in the second half of the season, and the Saints were out yarded in their final 6 games. NEW ORLEANS in their L/7 games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game have seen a combined average score of 60.6 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 9-0 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return with a combined average of 59.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVER L/8 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season with a combined average of with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board.CAROLINA is 11-2 OVER L/13 in games played on turf with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored. HC Rivera is 17-4 OVER L/21 vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored. The Panthers are 15-0 OU, eclipsing the total by an average of 12 ppg since Ron Rivera became their coach in 2011 as a dog of more than six points. with a combined average of 57.9 ppg scored Play on the OVER |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +7 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show | |
NFC Wildcard Playoffs The Falcons have big game play off experience while the key man under center Jared Goff for the Rams does not . It must be noted that first start QBs in the post season are just 11-27 SU/ATS L/15 seasons. The Falcons are ranked top 10 in both Defense and offense. ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS L/6 against NFC West division opponents dating back to last season. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson OVER 47 | 24-6 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 0 m | Show | |
Both these teams own amazing defenses, but I'm betting on both sides pushing each other, in back forth fashion, and for this game to eventually go over the total. Clemson has recently shown some offensive explosiveness, scoring 38,31, 61, 34, and 38 points in their L/5 respectively , and will do more damage than most projections this week, against what is still a banged up Alabama defense full of 5 star waling wounded. I really feel the Tide, will have to go out of their comfort zone here and open up the playbook in shocking fashion. Over is 5-0 in Crimson Tide last 5 games in January.Over is 10-3 in Crimson Tide last 13 bowl games.Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in January. ALABAMA is 20-7 OVER L/27 as a neutral field favorite with a combined average score of 51.8 ppg scored. CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (ALABAMA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 28-5 OVER L/25 seasons for 85% long term conversion rate. CFB Any team against the total (CLEMSON) - in major bowl games (played in January), in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame +3.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 121 h 3 m | Show | |
CITRUS BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 39 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Falcons need a victory more than the Carolina Panthers do when the teams meet in the regular-season final Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and will be the more motivated of these two teams this Sunday. The Falcons (9-6) can clinch the final NFC wild-card spot with a victory. |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +6.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 49 m | Show | |
CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami, FL Miami fl after a strong season finished off their campaign with a couple of down performances vs Pittsburgh followed by a ACC Championship loss vs defending national champion Clemson . This was a Miami Fl side that was talked about as a national contender and missed the play offs by one game. Remember the Canes were also undefeated before those two above mentioned losses and in no way should be disrespected here vs Wisconsin. Miami I'm betting will do just fine vs a Badgers side that despite of being a defensive juggernaut have problems vs top tier secondary's ranking 112 in intercepted passes . Note: Hurricanes had 15 interceptions this season. ACC Bowl underdogs are 10-0-1 ATS l/11 against Big 10 opposition . CFB road team vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 3-29 SU L/25 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors losing by an average of 17.8 ppg. Play on Miami Fl to cover |
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12-30-17 | Louisville v. Mississippi State +7 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 146 h 48 m | Show | |
TAXSLAYER BOWL - Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL |
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12-29-17 | Utah State v. New Mexico State +4 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 32 m | Show | |
NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ
This game takes place just 275 miles away from the New Mexico State campus and should be almost like a home game for them. This will also be New Mexico States first Bowl game in 56 years. New Mexico State athletic director Mario Moccia, an alumnus of the Las Cruces, N.M., school, broke down in tears when accepting the Arizona Bowl invitation. So needless to say you can see how important this tilt is to this school and the kids in uniform here today. New Mexico State has one of the most explosive passing games in the nation, ranking fourth at 352.6 yards per game. Senior B Tyler Rogers, has passed for 3,825 yards with 26 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Utah State is among the country' s best at stopping the pass, allowing just 181.8 yards per game, which ranks 17th. But the difference maker will come today via New Mexico States ability to get yards on the ground, and control time of possession. Utah state is ranked 125 in the nation vs the run, and 116th with time of possession. ( Utah Stare allowed an average of 280 yards per game to run attacks ( 5 ypc). UTAH ST is 2-11 ATS L/13 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and 4-14 ATS L/18 in the second half of the season over the last few seasons. In College football Bowl games, backing a team with motivation is extremely important . It is sometimes difficult to isolate these teams, but this is definitely one of those circumstances, which give us an edge on the number . Take the points with New Mexico State to cover |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech +6 v. Oklahoma State | 21-30 | Loss | -115 | 408 h 49 m | Show | |
CAMPING WORLD BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL
Gundy is 5-13 ATS L/18 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.
Play on VTech to cover |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 133 h 11 m | Show | |
ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX Missouri ended their season as one of the hottest teams in the nation winning 6 straight. Meanwhile, Texas after a disastrous start to their season, getting pummelled by Maryland in their opener, in front of their own embarrassed fans , picked things up as the season progressed and looked like a viable opponent by the end of their campaign. Missouri is an explosive offensive team, but their defense is atrocious, ranking 122 in red zone defense. Today I expect top tier HC tom Herman who is 9-1 ATS as a dog , to be well prepared for the Tigers attack after a 1 month preparation time, and for his own capable offense to smash and grab a cover for us here today against a group of pylons. TEXAS is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. Play on Texas to cover |
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12-27-17 | Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 133 h 3 m | Show | |
FOSTER FARMS BOWL - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA Rich Rodriguez's Arizona started their season strong ,but ended their campaign on a down note losing 3 of their L/4 games and on the season the defense was a big concern as they surrendered 40 or more points in 5 of their 9 games. Meanwhile, their opponents today Purdue , went 6-6 on the seasons and notched 4 conference victories and are being under rated here by the lines-makers. The Boilermakers HC Jeff Brohm is a major planner and motivator and has a perfect 3-0 record in Bowl games and gets my support here today. Big 10 teams are 10-4-1 ATS vs PAC 12 Bowl opponents. Arizona's HC Rich Rod is 3-23 ATS vs Big 10 opposition. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.Rodriguez is 2-13 ATS L/15 in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Play on Purdue to cover |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois v. Duke -5.5 | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 53 h 6 m | Show | |
QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI A lot has been made about how Northern Illinois beat Nebraska earlier this season, but the truth is the Corn huskers were not that good . Also a lot of pundits also seem to like to point out how well this blue collar Huskies program , has played on the road over the years winning 37 of 51 games, but fail to point out that NIU are 2-10 ATS L/12 as a neutral field underdog, and how they have crashed and burned in 4 straight Bowl outings, and last year look like they made a ghost appearance by not showing up in a 55-7 blasting at the hands of Boise State. Now they go against a viable ACC team, that have a huge front 7 that can slow down a average Huskies offensive attack. Also from a turnover perspective it must be noted that NIU were on the negative end of the turnover battle in 6 of their L/9 games, which is not a good omen vs a Duke team that protects the ball well, and better at forcing turnovers. I know 9 of the 10 Quick Lane games have been decided by TD points or less and this one might end up like that to , but it will be Duke that gets the cover as my number makes them 6.5 to 7 point chalk thus giving us value on this line. DUKE is 21-8 ATS L/29 in games played on turf and their current HC Cutcliffe is 15-3 ATS in games played on turf with the average margin of victory coming by 6.6 points per game. Play on Duke to cover |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans UNDER 45 | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 95 h 20 m | Show | |
The Steelers enter this game off a heart breaking loss to New England this past Sunday, and have now just completed three straight grueling games, vs Cincinnati and Baltimore and as mentioned above the Patriots last week. I really can't see them having a lot left in the tank and expect a subdued conservative effort from them this week offensively vs a Texas team that they have had a recent history of low scoring affairs against in Houston with a combined average of 30.5 ppg getting scored . With the Texans struggling to score with outputs of 16,13,16,7 points respectively in their L/4 games, I'm betting their futility remains intact against one of the leagues better defenses. On the season, the Steelers have yet to eclipse the number in away games during this campaign with a combined average of 36.6 ppg going on the board. Also 9 or more point road favs have seen their games stay under in 16 of the L/17 tilts if the Total is 37 or more . PITTSBURGH is 11-1 UNDER L/12 versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 350 yards/game or more with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 33.9 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2.5 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 97 h 2 m | Show | |
HAWAII BOWL - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI Fresno State is a fine football team, and have been a cash cow for their betting backers this season, when playing as dogs going 6-0 ATS. With Houston losing Tom Herman to Texas this past season, they were not as dangerous, with a 100 yard difference on defense. The Cougars are weak favorites here vs a side that my own rankings suggest is the superior side. FRESNO ST is 8-0 ATS L/8 when playing against a team with a winning record. FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS off a road loss which happened against Boise State (17-14).Bulldogs are 11-1 L/12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf. Favorites in this Bowl game just 2-8 ATS L/10. Play on Fresno State to cover |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
The SF 49ers are showing some life here late in the season behind, QB jim Garroppolo who is a perfect 5-0 as a starter in the NFL, after last weeks victory vs a stunned Tennessee Titans. Note: Garoppolo is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,026 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 98.0.Today against a Jacksonville, team feeling relaxed after clinching a play off spot , I'm betting the Niners shine again, and get us a cover. NFL Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are a long term losing proposition going just 43-79 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate on the blind. Jacksonville is 2-19 SU L/21 in the first of two straight scheduled road games and are 1-9 ATS in their L/10 games after exploding for 40 or more points, which they did last week. Jacksonville is also 3-17 ATS L/20 vs NFC opposition and 1-11 ATS mark vs NFC west foes including 0-5 ATS on the highway.JACKSONVILLE is 4-16 ATS L/20 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. SF is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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12-24-17 | Lions v. Bengals +5 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 66 h 58 m | Show | |
After an abusive nasty and physical affair vs the Steelers 3 weeks ago, that saw the Bengals blow a DD lead and eventually lose, they came out with a physical and emotional hang over and crapped in their own beds in their last two trips to the gridiron. Now rested and their PTSD, on the wain I expect they will give their home town fans and management some satisfaction with a strong effort in their last game at home this season ( HC Lewis is a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 last home games of the season) I know the men from Motown, are winning of late , but its not like their consistent team . With that said, I'm recommending we take the host side and the points. DETROIT is 9-25 ATS L/34as a road favorite of 7 points or less and is 9-27 ATS L/36 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins NFL team (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Chiefs | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 37 m | Show | |
The Fins were in an emotional let down situation in Buffalo last week, after beating the defending New England Pats the week before. Now I'm betting the Dr.Jeykell and Mr. Hyde Fins come in here and make life difficult for a Chiefs side that are off a division home win last week. It must be noted that KC is 0-9 ATS L/9 as hosts off a division home victory and off consecutive wins. KANSAS CITY is 0-11 ATS L/11 after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team in the second half of the season are 15-38 ATS L/34 seasons, for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State +7 v. Toledo | 34-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
These teams battled it out last season in bowl competition, with App State taking a 31-28 thriller. now in the rematch I'm expecting another close confrontation. The matchup showcases a explosive Toledo offense, and a team that went 11-2 on the season. Meanwhile, Appalachian State lost four games this season, but three of its four defeats in 2017 came by seven points or less, including a one-point defeat to what has suddenly become a potent Wake Forest side. The only other loss for the Mountaineers was a 31-10 loss at Georgia in the opener , which is a play off team for a national championship. Tonight I expect App State to counter Toledos big time attack, by pounding the ball on the ground and controlling time of possession. The Mountaineers averaged around 31 minutes in time of possession this year and will be the catalyst for them getting us the cover here tonight. Sun Belt teams have won 4 of the L/5 Dollar General Bowl games Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game. 26-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors. Play on App state to cover |
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12-23-17 | Army +7 v. San Diego State | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 70 h 44 m | Show | |
LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX These two solid rushing teams and defenses will go head today in a game that I'm betting will be fairly low scoring and tightly contested. Army has dealt well with ground heavy attacks this season, beating both Air force and Navy, and facing RB Rashaad Penny and company will not be a difficult for them. Meanwhile, look for Army's multi faceted rushing offense, that averaged 335 ypg, to do more than enough damage to keep them competitive and possibly pull off the upset. It must be noted that Military bowl teams are 22-4 ATS L/26 vs .600 or better opposition. This is Army's seventh all-time bowl appearance. Army is 4-2 in previous post season games, and those six appearances have been decided by a total of 19 points and all by a touchdown or less and I'm expecting a rinse and repeat situation here in this game. HC Rocky Long of SD St is has lost 7 of his 11 Bowl Games. Aztecs are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Aztecs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. INDEP.Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. Play on Army to cover . |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida OVER 65.5 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
I have this game projected to provide some big holiday season offensive fireworks. The Bulls are averaging 38.3 points (No. 15 in FBS statistics), the Red Raiders 34.3. The Bulls have an edge in defensive numbers, holding opponents to 22.5 points per game to Texas Tech's 31.8, but they gave up 533 yards to UCF in their finale and I'm betting they will be gauged again in what I'm betting will be a back and forth affair. TEXAS TECH is 26-9 OVER L/35 in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game with a combined average of 72.4 ppg going on the board.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games with a combined average of 83.3 ppg scored.TEXAS TECH is 12-3 OVER L/15 on a neutral field where the total is greater than or equal to 63 with a combined average of 82.4 ppg scored. HC Kingsbury is 6-0 OVER L/6 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game with a combined average of 94.6 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | 14-37 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 27 m | Show | |
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL - Albertons Stadium - Boise, ID |
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12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International +7 | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
Florida International is a team that currently ranks/ rates fairly high on my own power ranking charts for smaller conference football programs. Meanwhile, Temple in my humble opinion gets way to much respect based on past seasons, under a different head coach. This season , the Owls have shown flashes of their previous brilliant efforts dating back a couple of seasons, but make no mistake that this team is no longer as good as the linesmakers and many pundits might have you believe. Fl Inters HC Davis, who also had head coaching stints at North Carolina and the Cleveland Browns in addition to his time at Miami, has a veteran at quarterback in senior Alex McGough, whom he calls "one of the best quarterbacks that I've been around at all levels of coaching." |