Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss OVER 61.5 | 35-3 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
Mississippi State erupted for 52 points against Arkansas , marking its fourth game of 45 or more points of the year. We all know what Mississippi Rebs defence is like, while the Rebels offence is equally explosive. I know Ole Miss defence is solid and must be respected, but Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, ranks second in the FBS with 3,831 passing yards and put points on the board against the best of teams . Tonight Im expecting a back and forth slugfest that will see the total eclipsed. OLE MISS is 6-0 OVER against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 69.5 ppg scoredOLE MISS is 7-0 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 72.2 ppg scored.OLE MISS is 7-0 OVER after game with 50 or more pass attempts since 1992 with a combined average of 69.1 ppg scoredOLE MISS is 6-0 OVER n home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.2 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +3.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
Chicago looked sky high and exerted alot of energy in holding off the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday night in a 25-20 win. Now in an emotional letdown situation Im expecting they come here susceptible to being upset by the Detroit Lions on this day of giving Thanks. The Lions might not inspire bettors, but they are 4-1 SU/ATS L/5 on Thanks Giving, and have won the L/2 meetings here in Motown. CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons and is 7-24 ATS L/31 after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games and s 1-11 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons and also 4-13 ATS after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 43-80 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan UNDER 51 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
N.Illinois plays a methodical brand of football, that results in slow grinding low scoring games. N ILLINOIS is 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 ppg scored . W MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons and is 10-1 UNDER in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs, CFB team against the total (W MICHIGAN) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62 | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 33 h 14 m | Show | |
The NFL has decided to move Monday night's showdown between the 9-1 Chiefs and Rams from Mexico City to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum because of poor field conditions at Estadio Azteca, it was announced Tuesday. This line moved off the opening 63 number. Since the 2000 campaign season, NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57 or more points have gone 11-1-1 to the OVER ... and a 8-0 100% OVER when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight . Both these teams can score in bunches and both have shown inability to be inconsistent defensively which Im betting results in a high scoring affair. The Chiefs' star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, leads the league in touchdown passes (31) and passing yards per game and is second in passer rating, behind only New Orleans' Drew Brees. Meanwhile, the Rams are right behind the Chiefs in scoring, averaging 33.5 points per game, and third-year quarterback Jared Goff is third in the league in touchdown passes with 22 and fifth in both passing yards per game and passer rating. The Chiefs rank 29th in total defense allowing 24.0 points per game.The Rams are 20th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense, giving up 23.1 points per contest. Tonight Im expecting both to allow a TD or more above their offensive averages which will create a score that eclipses to this number. Play OVER |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings and head to head systems analysis, the Rams matchup very well against the KC Chiefs and in a game that Im betting will see a lot of TDs, laying a FG is not asking to much and is actually a viable wagering option. Especially with this game moved to LA. It must be noted that when this tilt was scheduled to be played in Mexico City the Rams were 2.5 point chalk , so this line considering the new venue very much favors the Rams and their betting backers. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | 20-25 | Loss | -135 | 83 h 46 m | Show | |
The Bears are leading in the division, just ahead of the Vikings , which means this game is for first place. This tilt should feature play off intensity which will favour the more experienced big game team, which is the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have had a fine season thus far, but this matchup is a step up in class. When the chips are down , Ill back the smash mouth Vikings getting points. Yes, da Bears looked good last week, against the downtrodden Lions but in the past CHICAGO has been a bad bet in the followup going 0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. I personally believe everyone is getting a little bit ahead of themselves with backing Chicago as possible top tier team going forward ,and tonight I expect that when the final whistle blows that some pundits time to pause and rethink their positions. Hey folks Im not knocking the Bears, and in the not so distant future, might actually ending up being as good as the headlines might indicate , However, Im just saying there is value taking the under rated Vikings in this spot as dogs. Note: Vikes HC Mike Zimmer is 13-1-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a double-digit win. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover . |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | 7-48 | Loss | -125 | 81 h 51 m | Show | |
New Orleans is nightmare for defensive co-orridnators to deal with, but Philadelphia coaching staff, are extremely capable as they have proven in the recent past . The Saints despite of all the accolades they are getting are weak favs here and have been in the past when irrational exuberance has been prevalent as is evident by their 0-8 ATS L/8 record as a favorite of at least eight points . New Orleans recent top tier performances including last weeks domination against Cincinnati, 51-14 has everyone and his dog, singing the praises of Drew Bree's and company. Last week the Saints accumulated a ungodly 509 of offense in their victory but in the past the Saints have been a bad bet in the followup going just 0-7 ATS L/7 coming off a game as a road favorite where they had at least 400 yards of total offense . The Saints also dominated time of possession (39:46) but once again have failed in their followup going 0-7 ATS L/7 coming off a game as a road chalk when they had at least 32 minutes time of possession. Also it must be noted that Defending Super Bowl Champions like the Eagles are 13-1 ATS as road dogs versus .825 + opposition including 7-0 SUATS since 2000. PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 roles rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 25-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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11-18-18 | Broncos v. Chargers OVER 46 | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 16 m | Show | |
Denver will be fresh as they come off a bye week, and cannot be conservative in their approach against a Chargers team that can be offensively explosive. The Broncos Im betting will push the action and San Diego will respond in kind and push back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that eclipses this very beatable number. Note: NFL teams like Denver coming off their Bye Week have gone over in 10 of 12 qualifying games so far in the 2018 campaign in Conference play. Last time out Denver took part in a heart breaking 19-17 loss to the Texans a game where they missed two FGs, but in that game the Broncos threw for 273 yards in the loss and are capable of moving the ball through the air which is important for us looking for an OVER ticket to cash. The Broncos have now gone OVER 7 straight times as a dog coming off a home game where they threw for at least 250 yards. Denver is 8-1 OVER in road games vs .700 or better opposition . Play on the OVER |
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11-18-18 | Panthers -3.5 v. Lions | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 37 m | Show | |
Carolina got embarrassed last Thursday in a 52-21 loss at Pittsburgh and will be primed for bounce back win here vs slumping Lions team that is on a current 3-game SUATS losing streak. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed, especially the Panthers..With that said, Im betting on Carolina a side that is 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS in road games when coming off a double-digit loss and taking on a sub .500 opponent to be ready to deliver themselves redemption in. a big way here today. The Panthers are also bankroll fattening 8-1 ATS in tilts after giving up 40 or more points . HC Rivera is 22-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of CAROLINA. Detroit is an nasty 0-12 ATS as a underdog on artificial turf when they are off a road loss by more than a TD and they are facing a team that has committed an average of less than 1.5 turnovers per game season-to-date. DETROIT is 2-15 ATS L/17 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season. Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
Last week, the Tennessee Titans ended their seven-game losing streak against Tom Brady with a surprising and convincing 34-10 victory over the New England Patriots. On Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the Titans will not be so lucky this week ( pardon the pun) vs another top tier quarterback when they face the Colts. The Titans are 0-9 all time against Andrew Luck who was key in a win vs the Jags last week. TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 and is 1-9 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars +6 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
The Jaguars in a must win situation today have really struggled of late, but they actually matchup well vs the Pittsburgh Steelers.The Steelers have won five consecutive games while the Jaguars have lost five in a row.I know both teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but the Jags desperation and the type of football Im confident the Jags can play when cornered will challenge the Steelers this Sunday. I expect the Jaguars No. 2 overall defense and No. 1 ranked pass D to be the difference maker in what will be a hard fought game. Steelers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Steelers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Jacksonville.Underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.NFL team (JACKSONVILLE) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons UNDER 50 | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
The Falcons 4-5 on the season have the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL after getting mauled by the Steelers last week for 51 points. After that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to play some hard core physical defence this week vs the visiting Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, Dallas 4-5 a team that has has allowed 19 ppg overall on D, and has averaged just 16.4 ppg on the road this season, will play a methodical game, which Im betting results in a score that stays on the low side of the Total. DALLAS in their L/6 versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored. DALLAS is 7-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season since 1992 Quinn is 9-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.Garrett is 8-1 UNDER in road games off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival as the coach of DALLAS. Under is 8-0 in Cowboys last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in Week 11.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 vs. NFC.Under is 20-6 in Cowboys last 26 road games.Under is 13-5 in Cowboys last 18 games overall.Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 22-9 in Falcons last 31 games in November.Under is 14-6 in Falcons last 20 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 13-6-1 in Falcons last 20 games in Week 11.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.) are 36-12 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-17-18 | UNLV +7 v. Hawaii | 28-35 | Push | 0 | 75 h 22 m | Show | |
The Rebels pulled off huge upset last time out when they beat the San Diego State Aztecs as 24-point dogs, 27-24. Im betting they use the momentum of that game to buoy them here in Paradise Island tonight vs a tired looking Rainbow Warriors side that has put alot of air miles on their bodies this season. HAWAII is 0-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.UNLV is 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons CFB road team (UNLV) - off a win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 44-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 5-29 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UNLV to cover |
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11-17-18 | Arizona v. Washington State -9.5 | 28-69 | Win | 100 | 62 h 29 m | Show | |
Last season the Washington State Cougars were upset in Tucson against the Arizona Wildcats as road chalk by a 58-37count and now revenge is at hand for the Cougars at home here in Pullman this week. I know Khalil Tate is a star QB, and gives Arizona a chance when he is healthy , but this is not a good situation for the Wildcats as they will have problems on the defensive side of the ball dealing with the Cougars deadly aerial attack and a overall 10-0 mark in the ITS battles. ***Cougars quarterback Gardner Minshew II, the nation's leader in passing yards per game (385.2), and a Washington State attack that leads the nation in passing yards per game (392.3). The Wildcats rank 10th in the conference in total defense (417 yards per game) and ninth in pass defense (248.7 yards per game). WASHINGTON ST is 10-0 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. ST is 6-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff of 14.2 . ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games. Play on the Washington State Cougars to cover |
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11-17-18 | Arizona State v. Oregon OVER 64 | 29-31 | Loss | -108 | 62 h 9 m | Show | |
This PAC12 matchup has the making of a big time take no prisoners shootout. Arizona State offence has been very steady of late scoring 38,38,31 points respectively in their L/3 and here against a inconsistent Oregon D I'm betting they have a similar output in this spot. Meanwhile, Oregon despite of their inconsistencies their offence has been very explosive at home averaging more than 43 ppg, and Im betting they fire back with some fireworks of their own , in a tilt that I project will eclipse this total. The two most recent meetings in this series over the L/2 seasons have seen 72, and 89 total points go on the board. OREGON in their L/8 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 69.8 ppg scored.OREGON is 18-7 OVER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse with a combined average of 67.7 ppg scored. OREGON is 21-7 OVER in a home game where the total is between 63.5 and 70 with the combined average score clicking in a 70.8 ppg. Oregon has gone OVER 14 straight times at home coming off a loss where they failed to cover with the average combined score clicking in at 73.3 ppg. ( The Ducks lost at Utah last week 32-25) Play OVER |
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11-17-18 | Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 47 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show | |
The last 2 weeks have seen the Longhorns put 40+ point explosions on the board which Im betting is an anomaly and I'm also betting they fall back down to earth here this Saturday at least from a offensive perspective vs a Iowa State side that has allowed an average of just 18.7 ppg on the road this season, I expect the Cyclones a team that has scored just 23 ppg on the road behind a methodical approach, to slow this game down to a crawl, which will result in a score that stays under the Total. IOWA ST is 11-1 UNDER after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons TEXAS is 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-1 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 season.TEXAS is 7-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. CFB team against the total (TEXAS) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-17-18 | Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina +7.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -124 | 70 h 37 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern is in the precarious position of coming into this road game in an emotional letdown situation after facing Troy last week at home and losing, which puts an end to their Sun Belt East conquest. It must be noted that Coastal Carolina Chanticleers do not make alot of mistakes , which is not a good omen for a Georgia Southern side, that has a 21 turnover margin this season. Georgia S. has failed to cover 6 straight vs teams like Coastal that have one or less turnovers a game on average. The Chanticleers have two games left and they need to grab a win to be bowl eligible, which makes them motivated home dogs. CFB Favorites of -175 to -400 vs. the money line (GA SOUTHERN) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced after 8+ games, in conference games are 9-22 SU L/26 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Coastal Carolina to cover |
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11-17-18 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State +6 | 6-21 | Win | 100 | 69 h 34 m | Show | |
Senior citizen Hall of Fame coach of the year HC Bill Snyder in his final campaign before retiring has had a down year, but still must not be discounted at home as the Red Raiders come knocking. With Texas Techs Freshman star QB Alan Bowman out with a collapsed lung injury Texas Tech will go with backup QB Jett Duffey who despite of looking good against Texas last time out, is still not ready for whats coming here in this nasty road environment where the home team needs wins desperately to go Bowling this season and help their long time coach go out with hands raised. It must be noted that Snyder is 32-3 SU at home against opponents off consecutive losses like the Techsters are, including 11-0 ATS vs.400 or better opposition. CFB ( TEXAS TECH) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. CFB road team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more against opponent off a home win are 3-33 L/10 seasons for a 91% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on KState to cover |
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11-17-18 | Missouri v. Tennessee OVER 56 | 50-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show | |
Im a big supporter of Tennessee and really like the way the seniors and veterans of this football program have stood up for Rocky top. The defence has been terrific of late, against sub par offences, but will be tested in a big way this week when free wheeling run and shoot Missouri a team that has averaged 35.5 ppg of offence this season and allowed 32.5 ppg in road games . Missouri has scored 63 and 50 points respectively in the last two meetings in this series and are viable bet to come close to those outputs again. Im betting the Vols will do their best to answer back in no quit fashion, which will result in a higher scoring game than many of the pundits expect. MISSOURI is 16-4 OVER after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers with a combined average of 65.8 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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11-17-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss OVER 47 | 20-21 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 27 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech’s offense is led by junior quarterback J’Mar Smith has 13 passing touchdowns with eight interceptions and 2300+ passing yards and two rushing touchdowns and can light up the board in conservative duel threat fashion against the best of defences, which Southern Miss owns . Meanwhile, LA Tech is also solid defensively, but Im betting Southern Miss should do fine here today no matter which one of their QBs starts ( Jack Abraham or Tate Whately). Im expecting more points than the low total estimations which are based on defensive stats alone. Play OVER |
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11-17-18 | Northwestern v. Minnesota +2.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -103 | 76 h 29 m | Show | |
Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West crown last week by taking out the Iowa Hawkeyes and Im betting they won't be as motivated here this week in what should be a natural letdown situation. . Meanwhile, Minnesota upset and pounded the Purdue Boilers, 41-10, as a 10.5-point home dog. The Gophers still need one win in their last two games to go bowling and will go all out here to beat Northwestern , because the following week sees them go to Wisconsin. I know Northwestern somehow clinched the West this season, but they are far from being a top tier side, as is evident by an offence that is ranked No. 112 in the nation and that has been out yarded by an average of 23 YPG. Add to that Minnesota has also had this game circled and have revenge on board for a nasty 39-0 loss in Evanston last season and you have a viable wagering opportunity backing the home dog Gophers\. MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS off a upset win as a double digit underdog. CFB road team vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival are 3-33 L/26 seasons for a 92% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest UNDER 60 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
A come-from-behind upset win over No. 22 North Carolina State and controlled fashion, now has Wake actually talking Bowl invitation. The 27-23 win was methodical in nature, which is different than how the Demon Deacons have played their games this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers have alot to play for as well, with a clear path ahead to the ACC title game against Clemson on the horizon. With that said, look for both teams to be conservative in their approaches today with neither wanting to make mistakes, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. PITTSBURGH is 8-1 UNDER in road lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.3 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored and is 7-0 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game. Clawson is 23-9 UNDER in home games after playing a conference game in all games he has coached with a combined average of 47.3 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-17-18 | TCU +1 v. Baylor | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Both these teams need wins to be Bowl eligible which will make for a hard fought game. TCU rushing attack was down right bad last week vs West Virginia, but should do much better here vs a Baylor side that is a league worst against the rush allowing 183.8 yards a game on the ground. TCU has the best third-down defense in the league, limiting opponents to a 33.1 percent conversion rate in those situations (47-for-142).Baylor, strength offesnively has been meanwhile, third downs by converting 45.5 percent (66-for-145) , but in a close game TCU D, looks set to be the difference maker. CFB Road favorites (TCU) - after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 33-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on TCU |
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11-16-18 | Boise State v. New Mexico +20 | 45-14 | Loss | -107 | 62 h 52 m | Show | |
Boise State is coming off a huge win vs Fresno State at home last week by a 24-17 count, and should now be in an emotional letdown spot coming into this game against New Mexico. I know the Lobos don't inspire bettors, after a disappointing season and 5 straight losses, but according to my own projections this point spread and taking points with the home dog has value attached to it. Look for the backfield of Tyrone Owens, Zahneer Shuler, and Ahmari Davis, and Daevon Vigilant to churn out yards and get us the cover. Note :the last time the Lobos played a team at home of Boise States calibre they hung with San Diego State losing by just one TD, so its not like they cannot be competitive, because they have proven they can. Head coach Bob Davie’s tenure is due to end. but Im betting he will have his troops primed to pull off an upset here in what will be their version of a bowl game. HC Harsin is 2-10 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of BOISE ST NEW MEXICO is 11-2 ATS in home games off 3 straight losses against conference rivals and the football program is 40-20 ATS L/60 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.Davie is 18-8 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of NEW MEXICO. Play on New Mexico to cover |
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11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas OVER 63.5 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic and North Texas do battle in a contest that Im betting eclipses the Total. N.Texas has averaged 40.4 ppg at home in offence this season. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic despite of being inconsistent on offence has the guns to light any team in the Sun Belt . They nailed 52 points on Old dominion and scored 36 on UCF on the road and have had back to back outputs of 49 and 34 points. Their Achilles heel remains a defence that has allowed an average of 37.8 ppg on the road. Everything points to offensive fireworks here tonight. FAU scored 41 last year and 59 points the year before vs North Texas, and now N.Texas looks to do damage to in retaliation mode. Play OVER |
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11-15-18 | Tulane +10 v. Houston | 17-48 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Houston gets to many accolades from the media , and are just not living up to expectations as this season progresses, something that has been a common theme with them over the last few seasons. They have a load of talent but game preparation and inconsistency remains a problem, as does a defence that has allowed an 500+ypg and has also given up 2,049 yards in its last four games including 44 ppg. Meanwhile, Tulane has quietly gotten better as this season, has progressed behind a hard nosed defence and an offence that has steadily improved over their L/4 trips to the gridiron. HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons and has failed to cover 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. Tulane is 6-1 ATS L/7 as a 10 point or less underdog. CFB team (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tulane to cover |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State OVER 55 | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Ball States defence has been atrocious over the L/3 weeks allowing 42,52,45 points respectively. W.Michigan despite of being without their starting QB Jon Wassink are still capable slicing and dicing this putrid downtrending Ball State D, by using key cog junior RB Levante Bellamy ranks No. 10 in college football with 907 yards rushing to set up the option. Meanwhile, Ball State despite of also being without starting QB Riley Neal should also do damage vs a Broncos D, that has allowed 51, 49 points in back to back games. BALL ST is 8-1 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 64.1 ppg scored. BALL ST is 6-0 OVER in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W MICHIGAN) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in November games are 43-18 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 46 m | Show | |
The Eagles are only 4-4 coming off their bye week and take on a Dallas side that is 3-5 on the season. This contest features a Eagles team that bases its successes and failures on top tier defence and a methodical attack that averages 19 ppg in offense at home and a team in Dallas that has problems scoring especially on the road averaging just 13.5 ppg (0-4 UNDER this season). The Eagles are particularly stingy /conservative at home, going UNDER in 16 of their L/22 home tilts. Meanwhile, Dallas has gone under in 15 of their L/20 road games and when the total is 43 or less they have gone under 5 of 6 times. I know the Cowboys played a high scoring game last time out, but Im betting that won't be the case this Sunday night. Dallas is 0-7 L/7 UNDER on Sun Nights . Philly is 0-3 UNDER L/3 vs Dallas. The Cowboys are 8-24-1 UNDER against any team off a bye and 2-13-1 UNDER record on the road. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at just 31.1 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Chargers v. Raiders +11 | 20-6 | Loss | -128 | 76 h 17 m | Show | |
The Raiders looked horrendous last week in their loss, 34-3 vs the 49ers last week and have lost four in a row and are tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL at 1-7. Meanwhile, the Chargers won last week, but looked a little pooched, and won 25-17 vs Seattle last week. Their numbers however, were not overwhelming. It must be noted that the chargers are just 0-10 ATS as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs , and 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite off a game as a underdog when they had less than 28 minutes time of possession, which was the case last week. The Raiders lost on the road to the Chargers earlier this season 26-10 but will be a much tougher out this time around at home. NFL team (OAKLAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 42-17 ATS L/35 seasons for a long erm 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Note: NFL home Teams which are more than 7 point dogs are actually long term good bets going 192-162-4 ATS . I know its hard to take the Raiders considering their form, but if you can just plug your nose and pull the trigger on this stinker, you can feel confident that we have an edge on the books. Play on the Oakland Raiders |
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11-11-18 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 44 | 22-34 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
The Lions (3-5) are struggling mightily and known the division basement after scoring just 19 points in consecutive losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Vikings. Detroit failed to get into the end zone in the 24-9 loss at Minnesota and quarterback Matthew Stafford has been sacked 10 times. It hasn't helped the WR Golden Tate was traded away by the Lions , and leaves you scratching your head for answers to why it was done. Detroits entire offensive line looks lost and scoring won't come easily again this week vs the Bears with defensive stalwart Khalil Mack expected back in the Bears lineup. The Bears even with Mack out allowed their L/2 opponents to a combined 19 points and not allowing a touchdown in either game until the fourth quarter. Key Trend: The Lions are 0-6 OU L/6 on the road off a road game in which they made 4 or fewer third downs. Im betting the Lions will have problems converting this week, and for this to have a direct effect on the total combined score , which Im betting ends up on the low side of the Total. Note: The Lions have gone under in 9 of their L/11 as division road dogs. Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordUnder is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 47 | 26-29 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
The Jaguars are desperate for wins and have lost 4 straight after starting their season at 3-1 including a win vs the New England Patriots. They are off their bye week and should be fresh and ready to take on Andrew Luck and his Colts this week. I know for a certainity that they have no plans of getting their QB Bortles to go head to head with Andrew Luck, so Im betting on a more methodical conservative approach here that should slow this game down to their liking , and which in turn will help see this Total combined score stay on the low side of the Total. The Colts had a alot of good results runnign the ball this week, so I can see them coming right back and being happy to pound the ball again here, against a team that will most likely do the same. The Jaguars have gone UNDER 8 straihg times on the road when their ATS margin increased over their past two games.The Colts have gone under 8 straight times at home off a road game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their average which was the case last week, and are also 10-0 UNDER when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a victory in when they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards. The Colts have gone under 6 straihgt times at home after they outgained their opponent. NDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.9 ppg scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons witht he average combined score clicking in at 43.5 ppg. NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-7 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% covnersion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 41-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +6.5 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 35 m | Show | |
Falcons are playing better ball of late , but are just 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against AFC opposition. Also you can not escape the fact that the Browns have a game changing QB at the helm of their offence and looks to be getting more comfortable each time out. Baker Mayfield. The No. 1 draft pick has started three games and has thrown for 1,768 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He's been sacked 22 times but rushed for 91 yards when scrambling. In last week's loss to Kansas City, Mayfield threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield helps his team get us the cover here. ATLANTA is 11-32 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games . Cleveland Browns to cover |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +6 | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
The Bengals are one of the most under rated teams in the NFL, and despite of the Saints getting all the accolades could easily be in a letdown spot after gruelling back to back games and wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the LA Rams and in a look ahead situation to the Eagles who are next on the agenda. Bengals are 8-1-1 SU and 10-0 ATS as home underdogs against NFC opponents and look like a viable bet here today. NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS L/28 against AFC North division opponents.Cincinnati has covered 3 straight at home in this series and get the nod again taking points. The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 at home off a win in which they were outgained by their opponent. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS L/6 when they are off three consecutive games with a positive DPA. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - mistake-free team (1.25 roles TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 58-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
The Titans are a methodical team, that is capable of keeping this score close enough to cover the number here vs Tom Brady and company. No, really , you might be laughing right about now, but the Titans have the better D, by 49 ypg, and must not be underestimated as TD underdog at home. The Titans have only been non competitive in one of their games this season, a 21-0 shutout vs Baltimore, but the wins and even the losses have all been 3 points or less including a impressive win vs the defending Super Champs the Philadelphia Eagles. It hard to bet against the Pats, but this is actually a good spot for the Titans. Note: The Titans are 7-0 ATS L/7 when they are at home between two road games. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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11-10-18 | California v. USC -5 | 15-14 | Loss | -105 | 61 h 18 m | Show | |
Both California and USC have been inconsistent this season, but the Trojans from a head to head matchup perspective are the superior side according to my power ranking numbers and matchup well vs the Bears. I know Cal has covered 3 straight but they have also been outgunned in 3 of their L/4 overall. With both teams needing a win to get a Bowl invite, Im betting both will be primed to play but home field advantage will be the difference maker. The USC Trojans have owned this series vs California in the past and are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home and are 16-1 against. the Bears in their last 17 meetings overall . USC has won 14 straight vs the Bears, and covered the this weak number in each of those tilts. CFB team (USC) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on USC to cover |
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11-10-18 | Colorado State v. Nevada UNDER 63.5 | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show | |
Colorado State is struggling on offence and have only averaged 23.2 ppg on the road this season while, Nevada has allowed an average of 26 ppg at home. Colorado State has a crap run defence allowing an average of 207 ypg, and despite of Nevada liking to air it out, I expect the Wolfpack will consistently attack the perceived weakness of the Rams D on the ground which will eat up alot of clock. This along with the Rams offensive futility Im betting results in game that stays on the low side of the number. CFB team against the total (NEVADA) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | California v. USC UNDER 46.5 | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
California has a conservative formula which relies on the defense to keep games close, smash away on the ground , and grab points any way they can. They have scored 17 points or fewer in four of the last five games. The trojans should have no problems slowing down the Bears muted attack, and in turn the Bears are capable enough on defense to hold USC below their season average.CALIFORNIA is 7-1 UNDER in all lined games this season and have gone under in 5 straight. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College UNDER 57 | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
The Tigers beat the Eagles 34-7 last year in Death Valley, and I won't be surprised at another combined score in the 40s again here in chilly Boston here tonight. CLEMSON is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 41.9 ppg scored.BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 14-2 UNDER after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (CLEMSON) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 44-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas +14 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 37 m | Show | |
LSU was manhandled by Alabama last week 29-0 , and are now beat up and downtrodden after that very physical affair and I'm betting they will be in a huge letdown situation here this week on the road vs feisty Arkansas gridiron group. Energy levels will be low for the Tigers , after their SEC title hopes and most likely its CFP aspirations were crushed and Arkansas will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Take the points Arkansas has covered 4 of the L/5 here as DD home dogs vs LSU and are 8-3 ATS L/11 in this series overall. LSU has failed to cover 4 straight vs .400 or less SEC opposition. Play on Arkansas to cover |
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11-10-18 | Florida International v. UTSA +10 | 45-7 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
Florida International was smashed last week by instate rivals Florida Atlantic by a 49-14 count, and will be in a letdown situation , and may have some problems dusting off the brutality of that beating as they go on the road vs a team that played them tough last season (14-7). UTSA might have a negative record but are more than capable enough of covering and have had a propensity to keep their home games close as is evident by a -8 point differential this season .UTSA L/9 home lined games over the last 2 seasons have seen a average 1.1 line differntial UTSA 22.9 OPP 21.8 .Overall UTSA L/20 line games have seen a -3.4 ppg line differntial UTSA 20.1 OPP 23.5. UTSA to cover |
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11-10-18 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech OVER 52 | 13-28 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
Rice has allowed an average of 42.3 ppg on the road this season, and that season defensive average has a good chance of being breached or met again by a LA Tech team that has averaged 30.7 ppg at home vs some decent defences like UAB that has 2 shut outs this season. I look for the Tech to score above their season average and for Rice to do just enough damage to help this combined score put up enough digits on the scoreboard to eclipse this total. LOUISIANA TECH is 24-10 OVER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-2 OVER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points with a. combined average of 69.5 ppg scored. The last 3 meetings in this series have gone over , with the most recent two games seeing an average combined score of 7 0 and 78 points per game get scored. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | Auburn +14.5 v. Georgia | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
Auburn (6-3, 3-3) enters this rivalry game with Georgia with a huge chip on their shoulders , and are also motivated to get revenge for last year's loss to the Bulldogs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium . Head coachGus Malzahn. prior to his recent two game win streak has taken alot of heat from alumni and boosters, but has been golden for his betting backers going 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 13-0 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in conference games. Georgia after their huge win vs Kentucky last week, may have problems rising up with as much intensity this week, which gives credence to me backing the road dog here. GEORGIA is 8-24 ATS L/32 in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. CFB home team (GEORGIA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Auburn to cover |
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11-10-18 | Western Kentucky v. Florida Atlantic OVER 58 | 15-34 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 41 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantics offence has been inconsistent this season, but they are just off teeing off on Florida International scoring 49 points. Overall on the season the Owls have been explosive at home scoring an average of 36.7 ppg. Today against a below average Western Kentucky defence allowing 30 ppg Im expecting them to hit or go above their average output again and for the Hilltoppers to do just enough damage to help facilitate this combined score eclipsing the Total. W KENTUCKY is 7-0 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 83.7 ppg going on the board. CFB team against the total (FLA ATLANTIC) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 67-33 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | UL-Monroe v. South Alabama +7 | 38-10 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
We have value here with South Alabama as injured QB Evan Orth is expected to play. I expect the Warhawks despite of leading the West, wanting revenge for a loss in this series last season, could easily still be caught looking ahead to bigger fish with Louisiana and Arkansas State up next. The Warhawks weakness has been their pass defence, and could easily get torched by Orth this week who has a 65% passer conversion rate.
Play on South Alabama to cover |
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11-10-18 | East Carolina v. Tulane UNDER 54 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
East Carolina has averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road this season, and Im betting they wont do much damage here again vs Tulane. The Green Wave's defense has allowed 416.4 yards per game through Week 10, which ranks No. 87 in college football. Tulane loves to run, and grind away, and that will eat clock time down, which in turn will have a negative effect on total output. TULANE is 8-1 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season with a. combined average of 43 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Kentucky v. Tennessee +6 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
Kentucky was demolished last week by Georgia 34-17 and enter this road game against up trending Tennessee in a emotional letdown scenario. Believe it or not its not a good bounce back opportunity for the Wildcats as they are just 4-34 all time in this series and have lost their L/13 trips here. In Kentuckys last 4 trips to the gridiron they have averaged just 15 ppg and could easily find themselves up ended by a Volunteers side that upset Auburn as a road dog and lost by just a FG to South Carolina as road pups. Im betting that if Snell and company can muster up enough energy to get the win here it won't come easily making Tennessee a viable home dog. Note: Kentucky has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 as favorites. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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11-10-18 | Purdue v. Minnesota +12 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 4 m | Show | |
The Gophers’ have played their best football at home this season as evident by their 4-1 home record as opposed to 0-4 on the road this campaign.The Gophers biggest problems have come on defence but HC P.J. Fleck fired his defensive coordinator and Im expecting things to turnaround in that department. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers after 3 hard fought battles against Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa may come into this game pooched and over looking their lower trending opponent. Considering the Gophers are 8-1 ATS as double-digit home dog Im expecting that taking the points proves golden. Note: Purdues last 12 games played on turf has seen a 0.6 ppg average differential. Take the points with Minnesota to cover |
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11-10-18 | North Texas v. Old Dominion +14.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Old Dominion upset VTech earlier this seasons, and despite of stumbling since than are an underrated team, and have a Wide receiver inTravis Fulgham, that has been added to the watch list for the Biletnikoff Award last week and is a future NFL draft pick, and is going to be a key weapon here today against North Texas as the arm of Blake LaRussa gets a work out. Meanwhile, on D, Old Dominion defensive end Oshane Ximines ( 14.5 tackles and 8.5 sacks) will make the North Texas offensive line work hard for room. Surprise surprise, Old Dominion gets us the cover. NORTH TEXAS is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 4-18 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game. Play on Old Dominion to cover |
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11-10-18 | UCLA v. Arizona State OVER 63 | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
UCLA ha allowed 34 ppg on average on the road this season, and could easily see that number eclipsed here. Arizona has averaged 33.6 ppg at home this season, and are good bet according to my numbers to eclipse that average by a TD or more . I than expect UCLAs sometimes capable offense to add to those above mentioned outputs and also do some damage in a game that will go above the total. ARIZONA ST is 6-0 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.2 ppg going on the board.ARIZONA ST is 10-2 OVER vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | Ohio State v. Michigan State UNDER 50.5 | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
I cannot put my finger on it , but their something wrong with the Ohio State buckeyes fluidity. they just don't look like a championship calibre team despite of their 8-1 record. The most glaring issue is the Buckeyes D, but this week, Im betting that won't be a big problem from a methodical Spartans offence. Last week those issues were obvious, against Nebraska, but the Buckeyes secondary was banged up with three guys out, all are expected back this week. Meanwhile, Michigan State is very talented on the defensive side of the ball, and Im betting will make life difficult for Ohio State vaunted attack.MICHIGAN ST is 10-2 UNDER vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. When these teams played here back in 2016 35 total combined points were scored and more than 50 here is not a likely scenario. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | TCU +12 v. West Virginia | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
West Virginia is off a huge emotional win vs the Texas Longhorns last week and will be pooched and most probably hungover in more ways than one vs struggling TCU. I know the Froggies Coach Gary Patterson’s has seen his talented up inconsistent team shoot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions this season, but this is a prime opportunity to get just a little bit of redemption so I expect the Horned Frogs to be sky high for this game, and will play loose as they have nothing to lose by not doing so here on the road . TCU under Gary Patterson is 12-2 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 6-0 ATS from Game Ten out. West Virginia is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after playing Texas. W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 13-4 ATS in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games. CFB team (TCU) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 36-10 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on TCU to cover |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State -2.5 v. Boise State | 17-24 | Loss | -115 | 63 h 31 m | Show | |
The Fresno State Bulldogs are an explosive team that look to be on a mission as they have won 18 of their L/23 games and are a bankroll expanding 19-3 ATS in all games L/21 lines games , including 13-1 ATS in conference games and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road . Meanwhile, despite of all the accolades Boise State has gotten from the media, they are no longer a blue carpet dominant team, and have only covered 1 of their 7 vs visiting Mountain West teams with a .700 or better record. The Broncos also are not playing all that well, and look to be at a disadvantage cs aside that is out gaining their opposition by an average of 122 ypg since early September.Fresno State is 14-0 ATS in its last fourteen games versus Mountain West Conference opposition with a .500 record or better and get the nod again this Friday night behind a D, that has allowed a total of 36 points in conference games this season. Play on Fresno State to cover |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
Both these teams are in a big time plus zone for scoring output entering this game. Pittsburgh is ranked No.2 in the league in offensive Red Zone with a 75% TD conversion rate , while Carolina is ranked No.5 with a 72% touch down conversion rate. Carolina has scored 36 and 42 points in their L/2 games and Pittsburgh has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. Im betting we don't see many punting opportunities here tonight in a tilt that has. strong possibility of going OVER the number. Carolina is a 7-0 OVER as non-div dogs 4 or less points and are 4-0 OVER aft score 35+ pts which happened last timeout and 9-1 OVER vs .666 or better foes and have gone OVER in 3 straight Thursday night road tilts. Steelers are 7-1 OVER as non-division home chalk 5 points or less and 5-1 OVER vs NFC South and 4-1 OVER L5 vs Carolina. The Steelers have gone OVER 14 straight times as a home favorite off a game as a dog in which their turnovers committed decreased by at least two over their previous game . NFL teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (CAROLINA) - an excellent offensive team (27 PPG or more) against a below average defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 24-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 69 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
This Total just keeps steaming upward, as sharp money piles on the over.Wake Forest pulled an upset of a nationally ranked N.C. State team last year and now with revenge on board , I expect a motivated effort from the Wolfpack with the no mercy rule waived , which means NC State will keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish behind an offence that has averaged 35 ppg at home this season. The average output should be upped by at least 10 points according to my projections vs a Wake Forest D, that is atrocious having allowed 37.2 ppg this season. The Daemon Deacons do however, own a offence that is the polar opposite of their D, and has proven their efficiency moving the ball as they average 32.3 ppg of offence. Look for NC State to pile up the points and for Wake First to do their best Buster Douglas impersonation and come back with some lucky haymakers of their own in a game Im betting eclipses the Total. Note: WAKE FOREST is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WAKE FOREST) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 41-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-07-18 | Toledo +3 v. Northern Illinois | 15-38 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois just clinched a bowl berth with last week’s 36-26 victory vs Akron and look ripe to be in a letdown situation this week vs an explosive Toledo team that has averaged 41 ppg this season. The sled dogs own a tremendous defence, but the Rockets can score against the best of teams, which is going to be a problem for the home team tonight as they have only been able to muster 19.2 ppg on the season, behind an offense that can only be described as methodical and inconsistent. Toledo has won the 2 most recent meetings in this series, and are my choice to cover here tonight. The visitor in this series has only failed to cover one of the L/7 confrontations. Toledo is also 10-2 ATS L/12 weekday games. (Weather conditions during the day 40F, and 28 at night, some wind gusts but nothing series, so no advantage here for N.Illinois as they hoped for inclement weather that would slow down the Toledo attack) TOLEDO is 22-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened last time out in a 45-13 win vs Ball State. CFB Road underdogs (TOLEDO) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are a long term good bet as they are 124-66 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. Play on Toledo to cover |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH OVER 63 | 28-30 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami O and Ohio ,both have explosive offences. Ohio has averaged 40+ ppg on the season and Miami O has not scored less than 30 points in any of their L/6 games averaging 36.8 ppg. With that said, Im betting on a back forth affair here, that eclipses the beatable total. Ohio U won a 45-28 slugfest last season, and a repeat type combined score is a high probability outcome again. MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 OVER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 71.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys OVER 39.5 | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Both these teams are off bye weeks, and I expect that their freshness will make for a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect . I know the Titans offence is stagnant, and that they rely on their defence to try to be competitive, but they have lost three straight and need to be more aggressive offensively if they hope to end their current negative run. Meanwhile, Dallas, has shown glimpses of offensive explosiveness this season, and a few weeks back put 40 points on the board vs what many believe to be a strong Jacksonville defence. My own power rankings and matchup projections points to the Cowboys being able to more than enough damage this week to help drag this game over the low total. Note: DALLAS is 9-1 OVER in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest with a combined average of 50 ppg going on the board. Monday night games this season have seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg go on the board. NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half are 36-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in November games are 26-3 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored with the average total listed at 40. Play on the OVER |
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11-04-18 | Rams +2 v. Saints | 35-45 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 26 m | Show | |
The Rams fell behind last week vs Packers but showed us all what they were made of by coming back and winning that game and will now be primed to pull an upset of their own, against what Im betting will be a New Orleans side, in a letdown spot after getting revenge on the Vikings for last years playoff elimination. Despite of their victory last week they were out yarded 423-260 and looked pooched at some points during that game. From a long term betting perspective NFL sides that won their L/game by more than a TD l but were out gained by at least 115 yards are just 50-76-1 ATS for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.Until proven wrong Im betting that New Orleans is a little over rated and the Rams a team that must be considered a Super Bowl contender are a great value play taking points. NEW ORLEANS is 19-35 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 Note:8-0 NFL teams like the Rams in Game Nine of the season are 17-2 SU since 1980, with none of them getting underdog lines. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 59.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 23 m | Show | |
During the L/18 seasons ,there have been nine tilts with Totals line of 58 or more points They have seen an average of 66.4 ppg scored . None have gone under with one push. I'm betting on current trend continuing, as we see two of the best QBs in football Jared Goff and Drew Bree's do battle with a super star array of explosive NFL talent surrounding them. On the flip side both the rams and the Saints in my humble opinion have over rated defences, and that will be on full display here today. Let the fireworks begin. NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 OVER after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread with a combined average of 63 ppg going on the board. New Orleans 3 home games this Eason have seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board. Play OVER |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns UNDER 51.5 | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 56 m | Show | |
NFL teams like KC laying a TD or more on the road, the UNDER is a strong play going under 19. of the L/20 times dating back 4 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors on the low side of the Total. Meanwhile, the Browns are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a TD-plus home dog. The Browns have also gone under in 5 straight at home vs .666 or better opposition. It must be noted that The Browns fired Hue Jackson this week and Defensive-Co ordinator Gregg Williams is at the helm of the team. In Williams L/26 games when he was the Bills HC he went 3-23 UNDER for a 88% conversion rate. He is extremely methodical in his approach, and Im betting against a very explosive Chiefs side he will be even more conservative if thats possible here today. This will result in a total combined score that remains on the low side of the Total. NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 38-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-04-18 | Jets +3 v. Dolphins | 6-13 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 27 m | Show | |
The Jets enter this game with revenge on board for a 20-12 loss to the Dolphins in week 2 as a three-point home dog. But NY lately has been very good to bettors in revenge mode as they cashed 7 straight ATS on a natural surface when they are playing a divisional opponent that they lost to earlier in the season. To put it bluntly , I also don't trust the Fins as home favs against 90% of the teams in this league, and the way their defence is playing I feel they are fade material in this spot. Note: MIAMI is 2-10 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons and is 7-24 ATS L/31 after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.The Jets have covered 16 of their L/21 visits to South Florida and get the nod again. Dolphins are also a bankroll dumping 0-15 ATS as a home favorite off a loss when their opponent is playing their second straight road game. The Dolphins are 0-16 ATS L/15 seasons as a home favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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11-04-18 | Steelers +3 v. Ravens | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 15 m | Show | |
The Steelers and Ravens have been going in opposite directions since they met Sept. 30 at Heinz Field. The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-14 and asserted themselves as early favorites to win the AFC North. |
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11-03-18 | BYU +13 v. Boise State | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 61 h 12 m | Show | |
BYU plays a methodical conservative brand of football, which was evident in a 7-6 loss to N.Illinois last week, a MAC team that plays a similar type of football. Now this week on the Blue Carpet of Boise State I expect the rip van winkle gridiron crew to be the Mormons approach to this game as they look to slow this tilt down to a snails pace which Im betting will help them stay competitive vs the Broncos. Note: BYU is 20-2-2 ATS L/24 games as road dogs. While Boise State is 0-6 ATS L/6 at home as favorite of 10 to 14.5 points. BYU has covered 3 of the L/4 meetings here and get the nod again in this spot play. Play on BYU to cover |
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11-03-18 | Stanford +10 v. Washington | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 61 h 2 m | Show | |
Neither of these teams is living up to their preseason Billings, but what stands out when Washington hosts Stanford today is Cards HC David Shaws 13-4 ATS record as a dog, including 5-0 ATS when's is getting 9 or more points. Stanford also owns a 15-1 ATS record as visitors after allowing 40-plus points, which happened last time out. Last season Stanford took out the Huskies at home for their 10 win in the L/14 in this series, and right now the way the Huskies are playing revenge will not be enough to get them the payback they want. Stanford is 12-0 SU/ 11-0-1 ATS L/5 seasons coming off a loss as a favorite. ( Last week Stanford lost 41-28 heartbreaker to a very good Washington State team) STANFORD is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.STANFORD is 19-4 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 9-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover |
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11-03-18 | Alabama v. LSU +14.5 | 29-0 | Loss | -106 | 58 h 14 m | Show | |
Alabama is third in rushing offense and fourth in rushing defense. LSU, which has played a tougher schedule so far, is sixth and seventh in those categories. Im not disputing how great a football program that Alabama has , I'm just looking at value associated with this line as compared to how both teams have looked this season, and LSUs big time home advantage from a historical viewpoint. Hey guys don't me wrong its always tough betting against BAMA, but you have to continue to grab the edges when you can and keep your head up no matter what because those edges make for long term profits! The Tides Tagovailoa looks like a once in a generation type QB in his current form, but he's yet to have to consistently take on real world competition like he will today. With hat said, Ill grab the points here with the two TD+ home dog. LSU is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 8-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. LSU in their L/64 home games dating back 10 seasons have lost only 7 times straight up with only one loss coming by more than 10 points. CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (LSU) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 24-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LSU to cover |
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11-03-18 | Louisiana Tech +24 v. Mississippi State | 3-45 | Loss | -106 | 58 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a bad scheduling spot for Miss State as they are off a big win vs Texas A&M last week, and will now be in a letdown spot with a look ahead game against Alabama in their next game. Meanwhile, LA Tech are no pushovers, and have revenge on board for getting clobbered last year at home by the Rebels. It must be noted that MSU has failed to cover 16 of their L/21 non-conference of 20 or more fav points while, LA Tech HC Skip Holtz is 16-3 ATS as a road dog when coming off an underdog situation like he faced last week at Florida Atlantic and perfect 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog victory which he achieved in that above mentioned game.LOUISIANA TECH is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons. CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Tech to cover |
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11-03-18 | Charlotte v. Tennessee -20.5 | 3-14 | Loss | -108 | 117 h 59 m | Show | |
Tennessee may not be back to their glory years just yet, but Im betting they will be primed and ready to take their frustrations out on a lower tier Charlotte program that is playing with a backup QB . The Vols won't rest players , and they won't take their foot of the pedal as they need to continue to improve and show their loyal fans that their on their way back to prominence. Search and destroy mission on Saturdays agenda for the Volunteers. CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tennessee to cover Projected score: Tennessee 44 Charlotte 9 |
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11-03-18 | Florida State +9 v. NC State | 28-47 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 55 m | Show | |
After being beat up on an embarrassed last week by Clemson, the Seminoles will be primed for a better showing vs another team (NC State) that was smashed by Clemson and has now lost back-to-back games and dropped out of the Associated Press poll .First-year Seminoles coach Willie Taggart said Monday he thought some of his players quit and that his staff needed "to find the winners" on the team. That was a punishing statement that was made in the media, and now we will see what his team is made of this week. Im betting these kids stand tall this Saturday and give a reeling NC State team a run for their money. Florida State is 10-0 ATS (15.8 ppg) 9-1 SU since Dec 30, 1983 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 42 points , with the lone loss coming by 7 points. FSU is also 16-2 SU off a loss of 20 or points dating back to 1983 and a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS if that team is .700 or above. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Florida State to cover |
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11-03-18 | West Virginia +2.5 v. Texas | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 55 h 10 m | Show | |
The last time West Virginia played Texas star QB Will Grier left the game with a hand injury and did not make it past the first quarter. It was bitter sweet occurrence as Texas ended up clinching bowl eligibility in the process on West Virginia's home field. Now payback is on the agenda this week for the Mountaineers .Quote:"This one is one we've been looking forward to for a while," West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said. "It didn't quite end the way we wanted it to last year, and we haven't forgotten about that." END QUOTE. WVU has won three of the four previous meetings played in Austin, including a 24-20 win in 2016 and get the nod again. West Virginia is 7-2 ATS L/9 on the road in Big 12 action as TD or less dogs. CFB Road underdogs (W VIRGINIA) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-03-18 | UTEP v. Rice OVER 44.5 | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
These two teams Rice (1-8) and UTEP ( 0-8) have had dismal seasons, and both look forward to the opportunity to notch a win in this spot. Rice has been without starting QB Shawn Stankavage since Oct 19 , but have started to find a way to move the ball of late , and really didn't look to bad against far superior teams Florida International and North Texas scoring 17 points in each of those games, despite of getting squashed because of porous D, that has allowed an average of 39 ppg this season. My own projections estimate UTEP will eclipse their 18.9 ppg average offensive output here today by a full TD, and their Swiss cheese D that allows an average of 34.2 ppg on the road to allow Rice to also score into the mid 20s, which should at least according to my estimates see this total number easily eclipsed. RICE is 25-12 OVER L/37 versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average score of 61.5 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (RICE/UTEP) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 54-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion Tate for bettors on the blind. Play on the OVER |
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11-02-18 | Colorado v. Arizona OVER 56.5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
. The Wildcats defence stood tall last week vs Oregon but in recent meetings between these football programs high scoring games have taken place, with Arizona taking a 45-42 win on the road last season and Colorado scoring 49 points in 2016 in their visit to the desert while allowing 24 points. Both went over the total as has 6 of the L/7 meetings overall. What Im betting on this week is that Arizona's Khalil Tate and company behind a group that put 44 points on the board last week will do offensive damage vs a Colorado team that allowed Oregon State 41 points last week, and for the Buffalos to have no other option than to open things up and respond in kind in what will be a high scoring shoot out in the desert this Friday night. Note: Arizona has rushed for at least 267 yards in each of the last six meetings with Colorado. The Wildcats lead the Pac-12 with 205.33 rushing yards per game this season. Khalil Tate destroyed the Buffs last season, and I won't be surprised by another big outing as he finally looks to be on the mend. HC Sumlin is 13-2 OVER in home games off a home win by 17 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 82.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 106 h 17 m | Show | |
Recent wins and covers vs Syracuse, and Duke and a closely contested battle vs Notre Dame have shown me that Pittsburgh is up trending in a hurry and pose a threat to a very good but over rated Virginia team. Pittsburgh has won and covered the last two meetings in this series, and are live dogs again, and get my support here in this spot getting points. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games and 7-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record. VIRGINIA is 14-28 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. CFB road team (PITTSBURGH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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11-01-18 | Temple +11 v. Central Florida | 40-52 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 22 m | Show | |
Im betting UCF will have their hands full with a very physical Temple team, and their perfect 7-0 record could be in jeopardy. Temples two losses this season came by 10 points to BC and 7 to Buffalo U. My power rankings suggest that UCF should only be a 7 to 8 point favorite here and that we have value with Temple to cover this number. TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 13-2 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasonsTEMPLE is 9-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. CFB Home favorites (UCF) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 47-88 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Temple to cover |
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11-01-18 | Ohio v. Western Michigan +3 | 59-14 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 13 m | Show | |
Last week Western Michigan had their 6 game win streak abruptly come to an end, as a frustrated and angry Toledo team off blowing a late lead to Buffalo U the prior week came in with a full head of steam and upset the Broncos. I also believe Western Michigan was not respecting their opponents enough, and the end result was ugly. Now in redemption mode, Im betting the Broncos come out here ready to resume their previous top tier play vs a Ohio Bobcats team that can score , but that has a lot of defensive deficiencies, despite of garnering some positive D stats vs their last two lowly opponents, Ball St and Bowling Green. I know Ohio destroyed a injury riddled Ball State last week, but the hosts are a much better group and healthier team than Ball State and will give Ohio more then they can handle. I am also not worried who starts under center for Western Michigan as both are terrific Qbs. Note: The Broncos have done well vs struggling secondaries as is evident by 11-2 ATS L/13 record vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game . Bobcats are 0-3 ATS L/3 in the first of two consecutive road tilts. OHIO U is 2-10 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992 and is 2-11 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals.W MICHIGAN in their L/26 games as a home underdog have seen a average point differential of 26.8 to 24.5 favouring the Broncos. Play on Western Michigan to cover |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | 42-51 | Win | 100 | 35 h 9 m | Show | |
The Buffalo Bulls own a balanced offence behind a future NFL QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson . The Bulls have averaged 235.0 yards passing and 176.3 on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo leads the MAC in scoring and total defense. I look for them to primed tonight to stop Miami O cold on their own home field and grab a commanding lead in the race for MAC East title. Buffalo also has the motivation of revenge on their sides, as Miami O beat them last season 24-14 at home as 3 point chalk. BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The favorite has won 8 of the L/10 meetings. Buffalo to cover |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44.5 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 84 h 20 m | Show | |
Wow its been a long time since a team was favoured by this much on the road . Actually the Pats were favoured by 13.5 points vs the Jags about 6 seasons ago and that game went under the total by 13 points. . NFL road chalk of a -8 or more points have gone under 18 of the L/19 times this situation has arisen. Buffalo has scored a total of 26 points in their L/3 games, and were shut out in one of them, and seem completely offensively inept. Today against an explosive New England offense I expect the Bills to be extremely methodical in their approach and to try to burn as much clock as possible, thus slowing the Pats attack which will curtail their output in a gem I have pegged to stay on the low side of the Total. Buffalo has gone under 3 straight times at home as a dog of 7 or more points. Buffalo has gone under in 5 straight games overall. NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 L/23 UNDER vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season with he combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored. NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, struggling team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off an big road win scoring 31 or more points are 29-6 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings -1 | 30-20 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 51 m | Show | |
I was kind of surprised to see the Vikings as a home underdog. I truly believe no matter what Drew Bree's is doing of late, I just don't see the Saints being a pickem on the road from a matchup perspective vs a Minnesota team that in my opinion has the superior talent and cohesiveness. Winning two games in a row on the road like New Orleans will attempt to do is a difficult thing, and if it were not for the huge horse shoe they have wedged up their proverbial yahoos, they might of lost last week, as the Ravens missed the opportunity to take a game to OT, when their usually reliable stud kicker missed an extra point at the end of the game. Wow. Any how, here we are , and the lines makers have decided while factoring in the revenge play off angle that the Saints should be a favorite. I disagree and will take a contrarian stance and back the home side to come out of this with a win and cover. The both times the Viking splayed the Saints last year they were able to expose their defensive weaknesses' and don't be surprised if they do it again. NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992.MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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10-28-18 | Packers +10.5 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 28 m | Show | |
Super star QB Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay offense have the guns to score with the Rams making them viable underdogs this spot vs what is arguably an explosive team the LA Rams. GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 39-23 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992. LA RAMS are 4-17 SU and 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 vs NFC North teams. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-15 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover |
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10-28-18 | Packers v. Rams OVER 56 | 27-29 | Push | 0 | 71 h 47 m | Show | |
The Rams can score against any team in this league at will averaging 35.6 ppg at home , and GB just does not have the type of defense that can handle this type of explosive group as they allow an average of 31 ppg on the road. So Im betting the Rams do a lot of offensive damage here today. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers the Packers QB leads a viable offence that can fire back with some weapons of their own and will not be easy pushovers in what Im betting will be all out offensive shootout. GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with he average combined score clicking in at 58.6 ppg and s 6-0 OVER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with the combined average score coming in at 64.5 ppg. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking at 61 ppg. Green Bays last game resulted in a high scoring 33-30 conflict vs SF. It must noted that the Cheese machine is 12-0 OVER L/12 off a game as chalk after they scored at least 24 points . NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 28-7 OVER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
Bill Carrol has his Seattle Seahawks playing much better than the pundits expected, thanks to a rejuvenated looking defence. On oFfence QB Wilson is also a top tier money maker for his backers going 11-1-1 ATS in his NFL career taking points against opp coming off consecutive victories like the Lions are. DETROIT is 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win which was the case a DD victory vs the Miami Dolphins.Detroit is also 0-13-1 ATS with a .500 or better record when coming off a double-digit win and taking on an opponent coming off a victory. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 17-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 68 h 40 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay enters into this game as a team that concentrates almost solely on throwing the ball to move the chains because their inability to run it as is obvious by their 30th overall rank via the ground attack. So today against the Bengals you can bet they will be air it out big time again. Meanwhile, Cincinnati gave up 551 yards of offence last week vs KC in a ugly DD loss, and look ripe to taken advantage of again. Note: The Bengals have gone over 7 straight times at home off a double-digit road defeat when they are taking on a team that is averaging at least 375 offensive yards per game like TB. the flip side, the Buccaneers D, is very porous allowing an average of 32.7 ppg and will Im betting getting trashed in return, which sets up well for a combined score that eclipses this Total. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 54.6 ppg. NFL team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams ( 27 PPG or more ), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-11 OVER L/35 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 44 m | Show | |
The defending Super Bowl champions are off a loss and own a 3-4 record on the season but are a good bet to bounce back here this week , as defending Super bowl Champs are 100-50 SU and 81-65-4 ATS since 1980 off a SU loss as a favorite. Needless to say the Eagles have to now put the pedal to the metal and right their ship quickly , and Im expecting to do so vs a team that is struggling even more then them the Jacksonville Jaguars who have lost three straight.With RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) likely to miss another game, Im betting QB Bortles won't have the support he needs to be competitive this week on this international stage in London ,England. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons which happened in their 20-7 loss vs the Texans last week.The Jaguars are also 0-11 /SU ATS when the line is within a touch down of pick and they are off a game as a chalk in which they had less than 280 passing yards and at least two turnovers with he average margin of defeat coming by two TDs. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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10-27-18 | San Diego State -2.5 v. Nevada | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 2 m | Show | |
San Diego State is a very viable short favorite here vs a Nevada team on tired jet lagged legs and in a letdown situation after a win at Hawaii last week. I know the Aztecs did not look very awake themselves last week in a victory vs lowly San Jose State ( 16-13) but now I expect the alarm clock will go off early and they will be ready to respond in a big way here vs a side they have dominated of late winning 7 of the L/8 meetings . Note: Nevada is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs .700 or better opposition. SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons The San Diego State Aztecs are 23-0 SU L/23 vs .500 or less conference opponents since 2014. CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEVADA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are just 23-55 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on San Diego State to cover |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State OVER 59.5 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 60 h 9 m | Show | |
Let me say it does not matter if Sam Ehlinger plays QB this week or not, for Texas, as he is questionable with a shoulder injury suffered last week. Shane Buechele,will be a fine replacement, and the 6th ranked Longhons Im betting do significant offensive damage this week, vs a a defense that is struggling and has allowed 40 plus points in their L/2 home games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State despite of all their misgivings are averaging 43.2 ppg in offence at home this season and can score against the best of teams. These teams have gone over in 6 of their L/7 meetings and Im betting this one flys over as well. Oklahoma State is 12-0 OVER at home off a game where they allowed at least 28 points with a combined average of 87.3 ppg going on the board. No tilt saw less than 70 total points scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 26-8 OVER in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better ) since 1992 with the average combined score clicking in at 66.1 ppg.OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 86.9 ppg. Play OVER |
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10-27-18 | Florida International v. Western Kentucky UNDER 55 | 38-17 | Push | 0 | 107 h 55 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky avenging just 20.1 ppg in offence this season does not have the guns to compete with Florida International in a run and gun type affair, and will come into this game preparing to play a methodical conservative game. Add to that the Hilltoppers will be in a huge letdown situation that could see them start slowly after blowing a late lead last week to Old Dominion, and losing thanks to some bizarre circumstances that include penalties and failed FG attempts. Meanwhile, on the flip side FINT is a Doctor Jekyll and Hyde type of team averaging just 22.5 ppg on offence on the road this season as compared to their overall 35.9 ppg output . The Panthers have a history of playing a more conservative type of game as visitors that has resulted in a lot of lower scoring tilts. With that said, you have what I'm betting will be the makings for a low scoring sleeper. Note: FINT has gone UNDER 10 straight times as a road favourite with no combined score eclipsing the 55 point plateau with the average combined score clicking in a 43.8 ppg. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W KENTUCKY) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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10-27-18 | Tulane v. Tulsa +1 | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Tulane since they upset and beat Memphis seem totally deflated. The Wave defence has been particularly bad, ranking 103rd in total yards allowed with 433.1 yards per game. Meanwhile, despite of failing to notch wins, Tulsa from time to time has looked like a upper echelon side, losing by 1 points to USF, and played Texas tough losing a by a 28-21 count. These teams just can't seem to get over the hump and both are desperate for wins, but Im betting home field advantage will be the difference maker today. Tulsa is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 meetings here at home in this series and has big time revenge on board for ugly 62-28 loss at Tulane last season. CFB road team vs. the money line (TULANE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more, a struggling team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 6-36 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Tulsa to cover |
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10-27-18 | Kentucky v. Missouri -7 | 15-14 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 3 m | Show | |
The Tigers (4-3, 0-3 SEC) are the best unranked team in the nation in my humble opinion and are explosive behind the league's No. 3 passing attack with quarterback Drew Lock the key production manufacturer and ranks third in the conference as a passer.Lock's passing total of 1,979 yards ranks behind only Jordan Ta'amu (2,622 yards) of Ole Miss and Alabama's Tua Tagoavailoa (2,066) among SEC's passers.Missouri is coming off a huge 65-33 win over Memphis in which Lock passed for 373 yards and four touchdowns and have momentum entering this tilt vs Kentucky. Meanwhile, Kentucky behind future NFL RB Snell, are a run first team, but Im betting they will not be as productive as usual, vs the Tigers No. 35 ranked rush defense as they hold opponents to just over 131 yards a game. Kentucky has a fine D, but Missouri can light it up against the best of defenses, while their own D can stop the run and have given up most of their yards through the air, which wont matter vs a Kentucky team that is ranked 127th in the nation in passing yards. KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 season. Play on Missouri to cover |
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10-27-18 | South Florida +7.5 v. Houston | 36-57 | Loss | -125 | 81 h 7 m | Show | |
South Florida is a explosive team that averages 35.6 ppg on offence and ranked 11th nationally enters this game undefeated on the season, and look like a viable underdog road option in this spot. I know the football media pundits are heaping accolades on the Houston Cougars and their 3rd ranked offence , but Im not sold on them mostly because of their horrendous D, that is ranked a lowly 117th in the nation. Houston upset S.Florida last season as 10 point road dogs, and now payback is at hand. Note: Houston has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 vs a side with conference revenge. S.Florida continues to win but have failed to cover two straight and have failed to cover. 4 of their L/5 mostly because of hefty lines, but it must be note that Strong is 12-1 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992. Strong is also 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 50-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. CFB road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 25-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. CFBA home team vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more ) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play o South Florida to cover |
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10-27-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Old Dominion +4 | 51-17 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 7 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State is a team that is getting to much respect here based on past season of upper echelon work, but this season, they are being out gained by FBS opposition by 85 yards a game. Meanwhile, Old Dominion finally woke up from their Virginia Tech upset handover last week to notch a upset win on the road vs Western Kentucky. Now that Old Dominion is wide awake Ill back them to being home the cash here as home dogs in this spot vs a over rated Blue raiders side living on past accolades. Note: Middle Tennessee is 0-4 L/4 as a road fav and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall in that role. If the Raiders win today it wont come without Old Dominion putting up a fight. With that said take the points. CFB road team vs. the money line (MIDDLE TENN ST) - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPRor more ) after 7+ games are 4-22 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Old Dominion to cover |
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10-27-18 | Iowa v. Penn State -6 | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 56 h 7 m | Show | |
Penn State has had some ups and downs this season, but this still a very strong team, with a long standing winning football program. Recently Penn State has been dominant in situations like this as they are 11-0 /SU ATS covering by more than 18.82 ppg as a favorite coming off a win where they failed to cover (33-28 uglifest vs Indiana last week) with the smallest margin of victory coming by 10 points and the average margin score differential clicking in at Penn State 41.7 Opp 6.7 ppg. Nine of those 11 games saw their opposition score 7 or less points in a game. The L/4 games dating back to the 2017 season, have seen Penn State outscore their opposition 218-23. Iowa has a fine team, and rank high in my power rankings, but the Nittany Lions have proven ferocious under the above mentioned perimeters, and are extremely motivated to prove their detractors wrong behind the arm and legs QB star McSorley who completed 42 of 66 passes for 524 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and has added 31 carries for 101 yards and another score against Iowa in his career. In 2016 when Iowa visited Penn State the huge beatdown took place by a 41-14 count. Can it happen again, maybe maybe not, but key here is we get the cover. By the way yes Iowa has won 3 straight, conference games in impressive fashion, but Maryland , Minnesota, Indiana are hardly marquee wins so lets not get carried away with the Hawkeyes potential just yet. PENN ST is 16-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last 3 seasons. Play on Penn State to cover |
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10-27-18 | Illinois +18 v. Maryland | 33-63 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Both these teams Maryland and Illinois give up lots of yards on the ground and both have proven they can run the ball. Both will use their success on the ground to take advantage of each sides weaknesses. Look for this tilt to be a slow guiding affair with taking the points ending up being golden.Illinois’ rushing attack has 200-plus yards in six of seven games and Im betting MJ Rivers who is expected to start to get more playing time starting this week give the Illini a better passing attack which will make them competitive despite of their nasty defence. CFB team (ILLINOIS) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team SU (MARYLAND) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 or more YPR) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. Play on Illinois to cover |
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10-27-18 | TCU v. Kansas +14 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 20 m | Show | |
The Jayhawks have not had a to success over the last few years, but they are playing better this season and are by far more competitive despite of their negative won loss record.The Jayhawks are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven contests as double-digit home dogs and look like viable picks here today vs a TCU team that struggles to score and is in an emotional letdown state after being manhandled in a DD loss to Oklahoma last week.. Also with anew offensive cooridnator and guaranteed starter at QB in Peyton Bender I look for the Jayhawks to put some points up on the board and actually cover this game.TCU is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 7-18 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. CFB A home team vs. the money line (KANSAS) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 42-20 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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10-27-18 | UMass -4.5 v. Connecticut | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show | |
The Huskies' defense has allowed 651.4 yards per game through Week 8, which ranks No. 129 in college football and Im betting a Minutemen offence that have scored 33.4 points per game this season have the edge here this rainy afternoon.
CONNECTICUT is 1-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. CFB home team (CONNECTICUT) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 4-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Umass to cover |
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10-27-18 | Army +1 v. Eastern Michigan | 37-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 1 m | Show | |
Army is the real deal, behind top tier HC Monken and even with starting QB Kelvin Hopkins out last week with an injury they took out a pretty good Miami O side 31-30 in OT. Now against another MAC team E.Michigan, I like their chances in what the lines makers expect will be a close game even if Hopkins is out again, as Sophomore Cam Thomas is more than able to guide this over powering West Point running attack . It must be noted that the Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd ranked ground attack averaging (318 YPG) and have a big time edge vs the Eagles’ key weakness which is their 111th ranked rush defense (216 YPG) . ARMY is 6-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. CFB home team (E MICHIGAN) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. CFB favorites (ARMY) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 28-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Army to cover |
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10-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas +1.5 | 45-31 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 45 m | Show | |
Since their loss to North Texas this rebuilding Arkansas football program has slowly become more competitive. This group is very closely knit, and the entire state of Arkansas is behind them here this week, in what is a winnable game, especially with QB Ty Storey expected back under centre. The Razorbacks have covered 4 straight for their backers, and once again look like a solid proposition here on their own field to cash a ticket for their supporters vs a Vanderbilt team that is last in the nation in red zone conversion rate. Vanderbilt is also s ugly 2-16 ATS L/18 in SEC road games. Mason is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return as the coach of VANDERBILT. Play on Arkansas to cover |
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10-27-18 | Wake Forest +3 v. Louisville | 56-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
Louisville enters this game struggling mightily averaging just 20.4 points per game, while allowing 33.4 per game on defense and allowing opposition offences to roll over them and gain an average 416.1 yards of total per game. I know Wake Forest is not much better defensively, but they can score more consistently and that will be the difference maker this eek, in a game that the Daemon Deacons have the ability to win straight up. LOUISVILLE is 0-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are just 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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10-26-18 | Utah v. UCLA +10.5 | 41-10 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
Utes, enter this game on fire as they are on a 3-0 run and scoring 40 or more points in each of those contests. I don't know where this offensive explosion has come from, but I'm betting after the emotion involved in putting the pedal to the metal in 4 straight games starting with Washington State, which was their only loss, will now see them in a emotional letdown down spot that could easily mute their output and attack, especially after mounting that massive comeback vs uSC last week. I know Chip Kelleys UCLA may not inspire bettors, but they are getting better, and have won two straight games and have the talent base to make a game of this. UCLA is 14-3 ATS L/17 at home as a 6 point dog or more. CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86% go against conversion rate. Play on UCLA to cover |
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10-26-18 | Indiana v. Minnesota +2.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 47 m | Show | |
This tilt between Minnesota and Indiana will settle which one of these teams will get a lower tier Bowl invite. Both these teams enter this game expected to play with back up QBs. But I like PJ Fleck at home, and dislike Indiana's consistent inability to find any kind of groove since starting their season 3-0. They did play Penn State tough last week, losing by just 5 points and actually out gaining the Lions, but it must be noted that INDIANA is 8-38 ATS after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game . Also the Hoosiers inconsistent attack has even had difficulties vs teams with porous defences . Note:INDIANA is 0-8 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. INDIANA is 2-9 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings overall. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 57 m | Show | |
Mimai Fl despite of their talent just can't seem to get over the hump. Last season they failed down the stretch and now in their last game lost to Virginia 16-13 , behind a duo of QBs that just don't have a lot of flow right now, and its rubbing off on the team as a whole. I don't know if its because of the Canes tough training/practices or what it is , but this team looks pooched for the 2nd straight season. As a matter of fact a disturbing trend seems to be telling a repeat story, as Richt is 2-9 ATS L/11 in October games as the coach of MIAMI. Richt is also 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MIAMI and is 8-21 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992 Meanwhile,BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-1 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons. Im betting Boston College has a better chance to win then the public has decided, as the opening line was BC -1, and is now at 3.5. Im betting the lines makers were right in their opening assessments and if Im wrong, Im still betting the Eagles make a game of this and get us a cover. Play on Boston College to cover |
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10-26-18 | Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 58 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic enters this game as a wobbly home favorite, vs a LA Tech team that could easily upset them SU here tonight. Florida Atlantics HC Lane Kiffin has been making some questionable decisions this season, that have not paid dividends, and the team as a whole just don't look cohesive especially on defence and have been outscored 90-35 in the fourth quarter this season . Yes, the Owls do have a top tier QB in Chris Robison but he was hobbled last game, and if he plays will be less than 100% this week and on defence are still trying to mask the fact they are playing without their all time leading tackler, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is injured. Florida Atlantic smashed Louisiana Tech last season the road by a , 48-23 count and now big time ugly revenge is on board. FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.Holtz is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992.LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Holtz is a perfect 6-0 ATS as road dog in his career vs a sub .500 opponent like FAU. CFBroad team vs. the money line (LOUISIANA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (34 PPG or more), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 37-6 L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on LA Tech to cover |