Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-23 | Magic +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:40 ET - The Magic off a tough loss to the Lakers last night but now play on the same floor tonight. Orlando had 95 shots from the field compared to just 79 for LA but they were done in by poor shooting. They will be better here tonight and all I can say about the Clippers getting Harden from the Sixers is two words: good luck! I think he will be more of a problem than a solution here in LA plus the Clips lost some bench minutes in the process with some of those guys now on the way to Philly in the trade. So tonight may not be the Clippers best effort. I also like the fact they are off a 40 point win while the Magic are off a tight loss. Look for Orlando to be very hungry team and this is one of those teams that is young but they tend to work hard at each end of the floor and I believe they will hang around in this one and eventually might even pull of the upset win late. After all, there is some extra hunger when you know you should have beat a team but you did not. That is the case here with the Magic after the tight loss to the Lakers. I am sure they will make up for that here. 10* ORLANDO (+) |
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10-31-23 | Predators +118 v. Canucks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Nashville Predators Money Line +115/+125 @ Vancouver Canucks @ 10:05 ET - At first glance this looks like an easy play on the Canucks. Of course you know what that usually means! The reason why Vancouver is such a small home ice favorite here is because the Predators have revenge here and Nashville has been playing much better last 4 games other than that 3-2 home ice loss to the Canucks. The Preds are on a strong run overall and getting good goaltending and they are buoyed further by getting the win in the shootout over Maple Leafs in most recent game. Nashville will build off that here and make it 4 of 5 wins as they continue to get strong play in the crease. I know the Canucks have been playing solid but they are off an OT loss and have lost 3 of 6 games and could be a bit down after the tough loss they just had while the Preds can't wait for a shot at revenge here. Look for the road team to come up big in this one as the Canucks think about their nice road trip down to sunny San Jose which which is up next for Vancouver and should be an easy win for their next game. 10* NASHVILLE +115/+125 |
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10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers @ 8:03 ET - I know last night's game stayed under the total and burned us but I am coming right back with the over in this match-up. This is a bullpen game tonight and the Diamondbacks should get their fair share of runs tonight on their home field but they are up against the team that, in this post-season, has been the hottest team on the road without a doubt. Texas has won all 9 playoff road games and - prior to last night - had hammered starters and bullpens for a pile of runs in most recent road contests too. This continues here but also I do expect Arizona to do some damage here as well. The Diamondbacks, prior to last night's game, had been very hot since the comeback over the Phillies after they were down 2-0 in that series. They entered last night's Game 3 having won 5 of 7 games and having scored at least 4 runs in 5 of last 6 games. In their last 4 games, prior to last night's surprising 3-1 loss, they averaged 6 runs per game. The Rangers have averaged 6 runs per game in winning 9 straight road games. Prior to last night's surprisingly low-scoring game, 6 of last 7 Texas games had totaled double digits and 8 straight Rangers games had totaled at least 9 runs. Great value on this total at 9 runs or 9.5 runs and plus money which is what we are seeing at mid-day Tuesday. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona |
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10-31-23 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan +5.5 | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Central Michigan (+) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - This line is around 5.5 points and the home dog is the play here. Central Michigan is off an outright loss as a favorite. Now they are hosting a Huskies team that is 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they have faced a conference opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite. I am sure the Chippewas are going to bring a strong effort here and note that Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings with Central Michigan. I remember two years ago the Huskies had a strong season but seemed to have the most fortunate season ever in terms of winning close games. Sure enough last season they went 3-9. This season they started the year 1-4 but now suddenly have won 3 straight games. However, the 3 wins included a blowout win over Akron and the Zips are 0-7 SU this season against FBS schools as their only win on the year was against an FCS team. Also, the other win for UNI in this 3-game win streak is they beat Ohio U but in that one they had a 3-0 turnover advantage and actually the Bobcats had more first downs than the Huskies in the 23-13 Ohio U defeat. Then the other win for Northern Illinois was over Eastern Michigan 10 days ago but again they benefited from a 2-0 turnover advantage! The Huskies trailed the Eagles by 10 points entering the 4th quarter of that one and they were a double digit favorite in that game! Simply put, based on all these above factors there is no justification for UNI being this big of a favorite on the road and the Chippewas lost the most recent meeting as a host here after winning 3 straight at home against them. This will be payback for the Chips and, as tough as their season has been this year, look at their home performances. They are a perfect 3-0 at home. Granted the competition in those 3 games was weak but it gives them some confidence and they can give the Huskies all they can handle here and possibly even win the game outright. Those two trends noted above are a combined 14-2 ATS in favor of the home dog here and I like those odds! 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+) |
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10-31-23 | Middlesbrough v. Exeter City OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #200605: EFL Cup | Round of 16: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Exeter City vs Middlesbrough @ 3:45 ET - This is a battle in the English Carabao Cup action. Exeter City finally got back on the board in a 1-1 draw in most recent match. For all their struggles to score goals I do expect that to help get them going again and they carry some momentum into this EFL Cup match-up. However, the issue for Exeter City is they have allowed 2.5 goals per match in last 4 matches and now take on a strong Middlesbrough club that has enjoyed a stellar run of form. They are off a 2-0 loss to Stoke City but that will only serve as further motivation here as they entered that one having won 7 straight matches and scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match! In their league matches, in English League Championship, their 7 away from from his season have seen them allow 2 goals per match. The fact this match is at Exeter City has me confident the hosts will enjoy some success but they also will struggled to stop Middlesbrough and, given the recent scoring numbers note above, we should see at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Exeter City |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (-) vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - I know this line is currently a 7.5 as of early gameday morning but I feel we have the solid line value here with the home favorite. Both teams off ugly losses but the Lions have looked like the better team this season and have some solid wins to show for it and have a better chance of bouncing back. If you look at Las Vegas, their 3 wins have been over 3 bad teams that are now a combined 7-16 on the season! They are not going to be a Lions team that was 5-1 on the season prior to last week's embarrassing loss. In terms of technical support for this play, the Raiders under head coach Josh McDaniels have gone 1-7 ATS in road games against non-divisional opponents. That includes losing to the Bills and Bears this season by a combined score of 68 to 22. I do not think this one will be that much of a blowout but I do feel strongly that the Lions will bounce back at home and win this by double digits. They are the better overall team on both sides of the ball. Also, in terms of technical support, the Lions are 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they were off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. Additionally, Detroit is a fantastic 7-0 ATS when they are at home off a game in which they allowed more than 35 points! This is the perfect spot to test that perfect trend as the Lions can take advantage of home field and facing a weak Raiders team and turn this into a blowout win as the aforementioned trend reaches 8 straight winners ATS! 10* DETROIT (-) |
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10-30-23 | Pistons v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 112-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 or -6 vs Detroit Pistons @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder just got completely embarrassed at home yesterday and that was their home opener. However, OKC had a really tough shooting night while the Nuggets were red hot from the field. Oklahoma City is sure to bounce back tonight. Remember that the Thunder are a young and up-and-coming team and are expected to do well this season. The Pistons are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. I know Detroit is 2-1 but they beat some teams also projected to not do well this season. This is going to be the Pistons toughest test yet as they face an angry Thunder team ready to immediately respond at home. Denver shot 60% last night and 41% from three point land while OKC shot just 41% from the field and 19% from beyond the arc in an ugly game. It was a sell-out game at home against the defending champs and a home opener no-less and the Thunder got embarrassed. That is the kind of game a decent team will respond to. OKC is more than decent. They are talented and can make a move up the standings this season. They had won both games before the loss to the Champs. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 or -6 |
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10-30-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers @ 8:03 ET - This is the spot where Pfaadt's bubble bursts. He has been very successful in this post-season which is surprising given the young hurler's results at the MLB level. That said, I don't see it lasting all the way through. Now he makes a World Series start against the team that, in this post-season, has been the hottest team on the road without a doubt. Texas has won all 8 playoff road games and has hammered starters and bullpens for a pile of runs in most recent road contests too. This continues here but also Arizona should do some damage here as well. The Diamondbacks have been very hot since the comeback over the Phillies after they were down 2-0 in that series. They have since won 5 of 7 games in and have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of last 6 games. In their last 4 games they averaged 6 runs per game. Scherzer has not been working deep in starts for the Rangers and he has been a bit shaky. The Rangers have averaged 6.5 runs per game in winning 8 straight home games. 6 of last 7 Texas games have totaled double digits and 8 straight Rangers games have totaled at least 9 runs. Great value on this total at 9 runs or 9.5 runs and plus money which is what we are seeing at mid-day Monday. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona |
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10-30-23 | Hurricanes v. Flyers +169 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +160/+170 vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 7:07 ET - The Flyers have been better than most expected earlier this season and this is a home dog spot too strong to pass up. Yes, Philadelphia just got hammered in most recent game but Ersson was between the pipes and he has struggled in both starts this season. Conversely, Carter Hart has been great in all but one of his starts this season and he has been particularly strong at home. He has made 3 home starts and the Flyers have won those 3 games by a combined score of 12 to 3. Hart had dominated at home prior to last season and he is truly looking like the Hart we saw in the early days so far this season. As for the Hurricanes, they have been a great team in recent seasons and are still super strong and ultra dangerous. However, the Canes have not been as sharp as usual early this season. Yes they won their last two games but one of those wins was in OT against a struggling Seattle team. Also, 2 of their 5 wins this season have been against an awful Sharks team and Carolina has gone just 4-4 last 8 games with the only two regulation wins in this stretch over a San Jose team that is the worst in the league. So, great setup here with Canes off a shutout win and Flyers off an ugly loss with the back-up goalie. The hosts respond big here and get a shocking win! 10* PHILADELPHIA +160/+170 |
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10-30-23 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #206885: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj vs Farul @ 2:30 ET - These are two of the big boys in the league but Farul is struggling this season after winning the championship last season. Farul seemed to have turn the corner with 3 straight victories but now are off B2B draws so they will push hard for the full 3 points in the table in this one. That is why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here in this match. Farul has scored 1.6 goals per match last 5 matches but also has allowed 2 goals per match in last 5 road matches. They face a tough customer in this one as they visit CFR Cluj. Note that the hosts are also angry off B2B draws and are hungry to get back to their typical high-scoring ways. Before a scoreless draw and 1-1 draw, CFR Cluj had scored 2.6 goals per match last 7 matches! This one should be very entertaining and sharp money is already coming in on the over which does not surprise me. 10* OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj |
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10-30-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. Botosani OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in FC Botosani vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11:30 AM ET - FC Botosani has both scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 matches. Those 7 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and we only need 3 to be a winner here and the over 2.5 is available at big plus money. This one is well worth investment as FC Botosani will push hard for the full 3 points in the table here as they are still seeking their first victory of the season. As for Universitatea Cluj, they have had 3 draws in last 4 matches but they faced some tough competition. They will approach this match with aggression knowing that this is one they are supposed to win as they take on the only club in the league that is still without a victory. This is why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in FC Botosani |
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10-29-23 | Bears v. Chargers -8.5 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Bears just got their 2nd win of the season after getting 3 wins last season. The significance of this is that these are the only 5 wins that Chicago has under head coach Matt Eberflus and they have gone 0-4 ATS so far when coming off a win under Eberflus. In fact, dating back to the season before he got here, fading the Bears when they are off a SU win is now a 5-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS the last 5. When the casual observer looks at this one they will wonder how a 2-win Chargers team can be laying 8 or 8.5 points against a 2-win Bears team! Well, the fact is the line could fool some folks for sure but not us! LA should roll here. The Bears now have a rookie QB from a Division II school making his first ever road start and this is after a "game management" win he notched over a bad Raiders defense last week. Now I know the Chargers defense has struggled too but they have faced quite a tough schedule so far and yet they have been quite solid against the run. That said, what happens if the Bears can't run well and are forced to rely on their rookie QB to win this game? Not much is my prediction and the strength of this Chargers team is its passing attack and the Bears weakness on D is the pass defense. This is a great set up for the home team to dominate especially with them coming off B2B SU losses. The Bears have suddenly won 2 of 3 but this is not a very good football team. Conversely, many had the Chargers pegged to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West this season. I don't think that assessment was entirely wrong either but sometimes it takes awhile for the cream to rise to the top. Look for the aforementioned Bears "play against" angle to move to a PERFECT 6-0 ATS L6 as the home team rolls to a double digit win. 10* LA CHARGERS (-) |
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10-29-23 | Blazers v. 76ers OVER 217.5 | Top | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 217.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:40 ET - Philly is in a B2B but they are riding high on positive energy and emotion here. Not only did they get a big road win at Toronto last night, this is their home opener now tonight. However, I do not like laying big points in the NBA and I think the best way to play this game is the over. The 76ers are going to be aggressive tonight and should score plenty of points throughout in an electric atmosphere for their season opener. However, the Blazers (even without Simons) could surprise here. I am expecting Portland to be very competitive here with a run and gun effort as they are still looking for their first win of the season plus Sharpe played well in place of Simons in his first start this season after the Simons injury. The Blazers have some solid young talent and a respected head coach that knows how to utilize it. They will not be able to get a lot of stops of a Sixers team that will be "feeling it" at home in this one but Portland will take advantage of some possibly lax defense after the Sixers had to put a big effort into holding off the Raptors late in yesterday's game. Value with the line move here too as this total was in the low 220s. We'll step in and take advantage. 10* OVER 217.5 in Philadelphia |
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10-29-23 | Flames v. Oilers -148 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Edmonton Oilers -150 vs Calgary Flames @ 7:07 ET - This is the outdoor game in Edmonton where the Elks play football in the Canadian Football League. This is also a huge rivalry as it is the Battle of Alberta with Calgary and Edmonton having a long-standing rivalry. The fact is that, no matter what the records currently say, this Oilers team is in much better shape right now than this Flames team. This is particularly true with Connor McDavid expected back for this game as well. Either way, I like Edmonton here. The Flames have a rookie head coach and they are playing like it! He entered with no NHL head coaching experience and it showing. We'll give him a mulligan early on this season and Ryan Huska does deserve time but right now this Flames team is a dumpster fire with 4 straight losses and defeats in 6 of last 7. Calgary has scored an average of only 1.25 goals per game in those 6 defeats while allowing nearly 4 goals per game! The Oilers are coached by Jay Woodcroft and he entered this season with a 76-32-12 NHL regular season record and two trips into the post-season with these Oilers. I know Edmonton has struggled early this season but they have faced a rather tough schedule and I look for this game to be a turning point for them early this season as they host this outdoor game against their biggest rival. Based on early season records this will be the weakest team Edmonton has seen since they faced Nashville and they blasted them 6 to 1. Look for big win here for Oilers. 10* EDMONTON -150 |
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10-29-23 | CS U Craiova v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #206881: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - The last 3 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 4 goals. Entering this match, Rapid has seen 6 of last 8 matches total at least 4 goals! Rapid has scored an average of 3.3 goals in its last 4 matches as a host! Universitatea Craiova has seen 6 of its last 9 matches total at least 3 goals! Other than a shocking 0-0 draw with Voluntari recently, their other 8 matches since mid-August have averaged 3.5 goals apiece and there certainly is nothing average about that in Romania Liga 1 action! That said, all signs point to at least 3 or 4 goals in this one as Universitatea Craiova hungry for a win as they enter this one off a 3-1 loss and Rapid also will be pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table after a disappointing draw with UTA. The result should be an entertaining affair with plenty of scoring in Bucuresti in this one! 10* OVER 2.5 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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10-29-23 | Eagles -7 v. Commanders | Top | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - This line is currently a -7 as of early game day morning. Look for the Eagles to roll by much more than just a TD in this one. Philadelphia allowed Washington to score late and take them to OT in the most recent meeting. They will not make the same mistake here. The Eagles were also 3-0 SU and ATS this season in road games before the turnover-filled ugly loss in New York when they fell short against the Jets. All of the above insures proper focus from Philly here even though they do have a big home game versus the rival Cowboys on deck. The Eagles are catching the Commanders at the right time to inflict a blowout defeat upon Washington. The Commanders are struggling badly and reeling after the 14-7 loss to the division rival Giants. New York was just 1-5 on the season and self-doubt is now setting in on this Commanders team that has lost 4 of 5 including their last two home games by a combined score of 77 to 23. When Washington started this season 2-0 it was truly "smoke and mirrors" and reality is setting in. If you look at the stats of these two teams, the Eagles are one of the best in the league on both sides of the ball while Washington is one of the worst on both sides of the ball. It is truly a minor miracle that the Commanders have managed 3 wins this season and they are set up to get hammered here by a focused Philly team that will want to make sure there is no OT possible in this rematch! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers OVER 41.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - We are getting line value with this total in the 41.5 range as of early gameday morning. Yes the weather will be cold in Green Bay but nothing unusual. It will be above freezing and the winds are light and no precipitation is expected. That said, I look for both offenses to enjoy plenty of success. Don't be surprised if the Vikings defense is worn out after a great effort versus the 49ers last week. That takes a lot out of a defensive unit and now they are on short rest too. As for the Minnesota offense, they could have scored even much more than they did last week and that is helping to give us line value here. Yes, the Packers defense has some decent numbers this season but have you looked at the teams (and offenses) they have faced recently. Note that when they faced a tougher team like Detroit they gave up 34 to the Lions. I look for the over-rated GB defense to have some trouble with a Vikings offense that is growing with confidence as Cousins keeps firing away downfield. Now, I am certainly also well aware that the Packers offense has been struggling and interceptions have been an issue the last two weeks as well. However, don't be surprised if they show marked improvement on the offensive side of the ball now that they are back at home this week. The Packers have played a road-heavy schedule so far this season and that has done no favors for an offense led by a young QB. The Pack offense will bounce back this week as the Vikings defense left a lot on the field against San Francisco in that big upset win Monday night. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay |
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10-29-23 | Manchester City v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Rotation #200045: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Manchester United vs Manchester City @ 11:30 AM ET - The last 4 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and have averaged 5 goals apiece. These are bitter rivals and, yet, in each of the last 4 battles both clubs have scored. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here. You know these bitter rivals do not want to settle a draw and neither club has been watertight defensively of late. The fact United is the host for this one helps the cause as I trust City to score well anywhere but I trust United better when they are hosting. So we should see at least a 2-1 final here as, of course, City is favored for a reason but you know United is going to put up a fight on their home pitch! United is off a 1-0 victory but this followed 3 straight matches that totaled at least 3 goals. City has seen 4 of last 5 matches total at least 3 goals. There is no love lost between these rivals and I expect an aggressive attacking approach from each club in this one! 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Manchester United |
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10-29-23 | Luton Town v. Aston Villa OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200041: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -130 in Aston Villa vs Luton Town @ 10 AM ET - Aston Villa has an incredible average score line of 4 to 1 in their 4 matches as a host in Premier League action so far in this campaign. Luton Town will certainly prove to be no match for Aston Villa here but they have been playing much better of late and I expect them to get on the board here. But the hosts are favored to win by 2 goals on the goal line for a reason. That is why I am also projecting at least a 3-1 final here! Note that Luton Town has scored 1.2 goals per match in their last 5 matches in league action. They will get on the board here but will not be able to slow down an Aston Villa club that is enjoying an incredible goal-scoring surge across all competitions and that is also so tough on their home pitch. 10* OVER 3 -130 in Aston Villa |
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10-28-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - It is one thing to lose in OT but it is another thing to lose that game when you led by 17 points in the 4th quarter with under 5 minutes to go! Indeed, the loss for the Raptors last night at Chicago is one that falls into the gut-wrenching category and those are the toughest to bounce back from. Toronto was still up by 7 with under a minute and a half to go in regulation. Then, in OT, the Raptors were up by 4 with about 30 seconds to go! The Bulls then got a layup and later a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left and got the 1-point win. Look for Toronto to struggle to bounce back from this and they are facing a rested 76ers team that came up just 1 point short at Milwaukee in the first game. The Bucks were a tougher opponent for Philly than either of the opponents Toronto has faced so far this season. This further adds to the value here. Though I am not nuts about laying points in the NBA this is a manageable number given the situation and I expect the Sixers to continue to work hard under a new head coach and plus they are motivated by the Harden situation looking to prove they can do all the need to without him. 10* PHILADELPHIA -3.5 |
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10-28-23 | Jets -145 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line -145 @ Montreal Canadiens @ 7:05 ET - I do not like to lay much juice in money line sports but this is a great spot for the Jets. The Canadiens are off an OT win versus Columbus. The Habs now have a decent early season record but all 4 of their wins have come against non-playoff teams from last season. Now they face a Jets team that is heating up with 3 straight wins and is seeing Hellebuyck look like the Hellebuyck of old that, when he gets into a rhythm is tough to beat. Look for he and the Jets to notch another win here as they are in a solid scheduling spot too since they did not play yesterday and they do not play tomorrow either. As for Montreal, they have a big road trip on deck out west that starts in Vegas, home of the defending champion Lightning. So, the point is, the Canadiens could get caught looking ahead here a bit. A lot of times teams fall a little flat in that final home game before a long road trip. The boys are already thinking about Vegas! In any event, the way the Jets are playing right now too, this looks like a spot worth backing them even at a moderate price. 10* WINNIPEG -145 |
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10-28-23 | USC v. California OVER 66.5 | Top | 50-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 66.5 in California Golden Bears vs USC Trojans @ 4 ET - The Trojans have one of the most efficient offenses in the nation on the season and have continued piling up points. The Golden Bears are not nearly as prolific on offense but they do play with a good pace and that is why their number of plays run on offense is high this season. This afternoon they are likely to be playing catch-up all day long and that is why the play here is the over. USC continues to see their defense let them down week after week but their offensive unit continues to pile up points! Look for more of the same here. USC is averaging 45 points per game this season but also has allowed at least 28 points in 5 straight games. The Trojans are a double digit favorite with good reason here but, though they will score well, they will also continue to give up points at the other end of the field too! California had scored 32 points per game their last 4 games before they lost badly to Utah and struggled last week. The Utes are very tough on defense so the Cal offense will get right back on track here at home against a weak defense. However, this Cal defense has now allowed an average of 41.5 points per game their last 4 games. This game looks about 45 to 35 the way I see it and, at a minimum, we should get into the 70s here the way the Trojans have been playing on both sides of the ball. 10* OVER 66.5 in California |
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10-28-23 | BYU +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 6-35 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars +20.5 @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - The Cougars could surprise here. UT will be going with a back-up quarterback here because of the Ewers injury. I know the Horns have talented options at the back-up position but that does not mean these guys are going to come in and light things up at the Division 1 CFB level. There is a lack of experience for these guys. At the same time, everyone is saying the Horns can run all over BYU here due to some of the bad rushing defense numbers that the Cougars have. But if you can worry a little less about a team's passing attack and you can focus more on stopping the run, guess what happens usually? I am not saying that the Longhorns will not have success moving the ball here but I am going to challenge them to win this game by 3 touchdowns! I just do not see that happening. BYU is a respectable program and they showed last week again that this team can generate turnovers. They also have a defensive-minded head coach. This actually could be a tricky match-up for Texas as BYU has the experience edge at QB in this one and I feel the Cougars could hang around for a long time in this game just like we saw what Wyoming did in Austin earlier this season. The Longhorns have some big wins this season but they also have allowed an average of 29 points per game the past two games. The defense has regressed some and the offense has taken a brief hit with the Ewers injury and BYU has only truly been blown out in one game this season and they tend to be a consistently solid and competitive team. They will be in this one all the way the way I see it. 10* BYU +20.5 |
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10-28-23 | Steaua Bucharesti v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #206905: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs FCSB @ 1:30 ET - This one is set up perfectly for plenty of goals and that is why you are seeing this total at 2.5 goals. FCSB is one of the best clubs in the league and will come out here fully focused on a strong attacking effort after being held to a scoreless draw in most recent match! Also, Petrolul Ploiesti had endured a rough recent stretch but will now be buoyed by a strong 4 to 1 to keep their hopes of a turnaround afloat. Best of all, that 4-1 win came on the road and so now Petro returns home loaded with confidence and ready to be aggressive against this FCSB club. FCSB, before a seemingly disinterested effort versus Voluntari last week also had just a 1-0 win the week before. But they paid for the conservative ways last week with the draw and I expect them to revert to stronger attacking here. These two unusual matches - by FCSB standards - followed a stretch in which 6 of their last 7 matches had totaled at least 3 goals and those 6 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Similar result expected here given the above circumstances. Also, FCSB has scored average of 3 goals in last 2 meetings between these clubs and the most recent meeting totaled 5 goals. 10* OVER 2.5 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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10-28-23 | Newcastle United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #200025: English Premier League Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -130 in Wolverhampton vs Newcastle United @ 12:30 ET - Fatigue and injury issues are the story for Newcastle right now but I am here to tell you that hunger and motivation are also key factors in any match-up. In this case Newcastle is angry off the inexcusable 1-0 loss to Borussia Dortmund earlier this week. They will now take out their anger back in the Premier League action again for this visit to Wolverhampton. Note that Wolverhampton has both scored and conceded in 7 straight matches! Overall, their last 8 matches across all competitions have averaged nearly 4 goals apiece! As for Newcastle, their last 4 matches before that ugly 1-0 loss had seen them score an average of 3 goals per match! In the 3 most recent ones before the 1-0 loss, all 3 matches totaled at least 4 goals! I am expecting that again here and, if not, at least 3 goals in this one! 10* OVER 2.5 in Wolverhampton |
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10-28-23 | Indiana v. Penn State OVER 45 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 45 in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Indiana Hoosiers @ Noon ET - Every year after facing the Buckeyes, PSU tends to struggle a bit defensively. Keep in mind, facing a powerhouse offense like Ohio State and giving all your best to slow them down certainly can take a lot out of a defensive unit so the logic here makes sense. The fact is that other than holding Rutgers to single digits one year (and we know how bad the Scarlet Knights have been historically), the other 7 times for PSU the week after facing OSU, they have allowed an average of 24 points per game! Not only that, they have allowed at least 14 points all 7 times! The odds makers, as I have said many times in the past, tend to be the proverbial sharpest guys in the room! They have PSU as as a favorite of 31 points. So if we can logically expect Penn State to roll big here on offense but also expect their defense to give up some points (also based on logic as noted above) you are looking at about a 45-14 final here which is well past the posted number. I know the Hoosiers offense has struggled but watch them surprise a little in this game as the Penn State defense is still thinking "what could have been" in last week's loss at Ohio State (this happens every year it seems). Also note that this Indiana team has surrendered an average of 42 points per game the last 3 weeks. The weather in State College can get chilly this time of year and actually it is going to get colder here in a few days. However, the key is Saturday's weather is mild with also light winds. The result is plenty of offense here. 10* OVER 45 in Penn State |
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10-28-23 | Sheffield United v. Arsenal OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #200021: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Arsenal vs Sheffield United @ 10 AM ET - Sheffield United continues to concede goals at an alarming rate and Arsenal is on their home pitch and set to employ more of an attacking style given the situation. 5 of Arsenal's last 7 matches in Premier League action have totaled at least 4 goals. Yes this over looks high at 3.5 goals but it is priced this way for a reason. Also, Arsenal has not exactly been water tight defensively in league action and yet their attackers should have a field day against Sheffield United. Arsenal shut out Manchester City in a shocker earlier this month but that followed allowing 1.5 goals per match in their first 4 matches as a host this season. Sheffield has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 8 matches but also allowed 3 goals per match in their last 8 matches. 3-1 sounds about right here but we could also see much more! 10* OVER 3.5 in Arsenal |
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10-27-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:10 ET - The Warriors were one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season. Granted this is not much of a road trip for them but facts are facts. Golden State has really struggled to win in other team's buildings. They did not shoot well at all versus Phoenix from 3-point land in the season opener and that was at home. Now they are in an enemy's building and it is an enemy that does not like them at all and this nearby rival is likely to get a solid home win here as the Warriors will again be without Draymond Green for this one. This impacts their defense and rebounding and the Kings off a big win in their season opener and rolling with confidence entering this one. 10* SACRAMENTO -2.5 |
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10-27-23 | Winnipeg v. Calgary +3 | Top | 36-13 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +3 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - The playoff positioning is set already. This is a rather meaningless game for each team. But it carries more weight with the home team that has a little more to prove. The Stampeders are hungrier. Winnipeg already has a been there, done that mentality and this is purely a tune-up game for the Blue Bombers. The Stamps, on the other hand, will be a little more motivated here and will want to defend their home turf and go into the post-season off a win. So the home team and as an underdog too makes this a a great value. 10* CALGARY +3 |
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10-27-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +4 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Friday Charlotte 49ers (+) vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 7:30 ET - The 49ers get a little boost of confidence with the win at East Carolina. It was not easy and the Charlotte offense has not been impressive but their defense sure has. That makes the Niners a defensive-minded home dog and I like to grab teams like this when they are getting a field goal or more. In this case the dominant line is 3.5 but there is some 4 out there as well as of about 9 hours before kickoff. Charlotte had one hiccup at SMU when you look at their last 4 games but in the other 3 they allowed an average of only 14 points per game and that included facing an SEC foe when they battle Florida. FAU just got blasted by UTSA and the Owls have gone just 2-4 SU against FBS schools this season. One of those wins for Florida Atlantic was by just 3 points. Statistically FAU has the better offense even though the Owls are not great on that side of the ball. However, defensively it is the 49ers with the edge especially in the yardage allowed category. Also, FAU has blown out Charlotte each of the past two seasons and yet look at the very small number posted on this game! Do not let the small line fool you. Grab the points with the home dog as they get their revenge here. CHARLOTTE (+) |
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10-27-23 | Wild v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 6 or 6.5 in Washington Capitals vs Minnesota Wild @ 7:07 ET - Great set-up here as the Capitals have been playing better. Even in the 4-1 loss to Toronto they had a huge edge in shots on goal. Then they did the same thing in a 6-4 win over the Devils. The fact they rallied for that win in the 3rd period and are now back on home ice has me looking for plenty of aggression and attacking and goals should follow. Helping the cause is the fact that the Wild are in the 2nd night of a back to back after getting drilled 6-2 at Philly. The Wild have been involved in 6 straight games that have totaled at least 7 goals and I expect this trend to continue here. Fleury gave up 5 goals in his most recent start and he will get the call again here and Minnesota continues to allow a ton of goals. Gustavsson has also struggled between the pipes and the Flyers exploited the weak Wild defense yesterday too. The Caps have allowed 4 goals per game last 4 games and the Wild will keep pushing in the offensive zone. Despite all their defensive shortcomings they have done well in the offensive zone so far this season. They are scoring 4 goals per game this season but they just can't stop anybody in their own zone either. This should be solid high-scoring game again. Minnesota's last 6 have averaged 9 goals apiece. 10* OVER 6 or 6.5 in Washington |
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10-27-23 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Crystal Palace OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #200009: English Premier League: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur @ 3 ET - Crystal Palace has a low-scoring reputation but one of the books I follow closely and respect a lot is treating the total on this match in an interesting way. Also, Tottenham has a very dangerous attack and CP is still without their top goalie. Yes the #2 guy had been delivering a string of clean sheets for Crystal Palace but I feel their blowout loss to Newcastle most recently is absolutely a sign of things to come. Note that Crystal Palace held Tottenham in check and lost only 1-0 the last time these teams met. However, the Hotspur's prior 4 matches with CP all totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Don't be surprised if we see a lot of scoring here as Crystal Palace realized they must be more aggressive on the attack if they are going to get some points going in the table again. They have only scored 1 goal total in their last 5 matches overall and the 4-0 defeat will finally wake them up from their sleeping lull on the attack. As for Tottenham, they are scoring well in EPL action and overall as their last 14 matches across all competitions have seen them average 2.5 goals apiece. That is the posted total here and I am looking for at least 2-1 here but 3-1 or 3-2 would not totally shock me. Before a pair of cleansheets Tottenham had allowed 1.4 goals per match over their last 5 matches. 10* OVER 2.5 in Crystal Palace |
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10-27-23 | CSMS Iasi v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Rotation #206897: Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Poli Iasi @ 1:30 ET - Dinamo has been enduring a very rough stretch and I expect us to see that the 4-0 loss at Hermannstadt was rock bottom. This Dinamo club is thrilled to be back in Liga 1 and has a ton of supporters so their promotion was a big deal to the many fans in Bucuresti. That said, the disappointing start to the campaign has been tough to handle but there is still a lot of season left. Now, with Dinamo back home and fired up to get back on track, they should come up huge here. I say this in terms of goal-scoring but I do not trust that they can completely shut down Poli Iasi at the other end of the pitch. Poli Iasi has scored in 10 of last 12 matches and actually has averaged 1.5 goals scored in those 10 matches! They also have scored in each of last 5 matches with Dinamo. However, Dinamo has scored an average of 2 goals in last 3 meetings! I am looking for a 2-1 type match here given all of the above and we definitely have a lot of line value with this total at just 2 goals as well. 10* OVER 2 in Dinamo Bucuresti |
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10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills -9 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The Bills have underachieved so far this season but statistically remain a strong team on both sides of the ball. They have frequently been done in by turnovers and that has held them back. Now they are at home and coming off a loss and are set up well for a big bounce back. I normally do not like to lay big points but this Bucs team is not very good. They have overachieved so far this season as shown by their statistics so far on both sides of the ball. Also, all their wins have come against bad teams. They will get exposed here. Also, they are off a heart-breaking divisional loss to Atlanta. Now they are facing a non-divisional foe on Thursday night. That is a situation that has not gone well for them as, when facing a team from outside the NFC South in a Thursday game, the Buccaneers have gone 0-6 ATS. Look for that trend to reach 7 in a row here. The Bills are angry off a loss and they have won both games this season when they were off a loss. I know one of those was a non-cover but the other 3 wins that Buffalo has this season have all come by a margin of 24 or more more points! I would not be surprised to see a similar result here but definitely can sense that, at the very least, Bills do win this by a double digit margin. 10* BUFFALO (-) |
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10-26-23 | Wild v. Flyers +107 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 107 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers +105 vs Minnesota Wild @ 7:35 ET - This is a great spot for the Flyers. They are on home ice and coming off a 3-2 loss at Vegas in a game it looked like they were destined to win 2-1. Keep in mind that game was at the home of the defending Stanley Cup Champs. The Flyers very nearly won outright and they easily covered the puck line and the game should have ended up going to overtime but the Golden Knights got a very late goal. The point about Philly, and I have already used them a couple times this season for this reason, is they are a little better than people realize and also have more of a cohesive group this season. They are putting together the right pieces. Granted this is still not a great team but they are solid and they are building and they will continue to compete hard. That makes a game like this on home ice a likely win the way I see it. They are hungry off a tight road loss in which they know they deserved better. They will come out flying here and they catch the Wild off a big home win over a division rival. Great set-up here plus Minnesota has allowed 5 goals per game in their last 5 games and had lost 3 of 4 before the win over Edmonton Tuesday. The Flyers, on the other hand, have allowed just 2.5 goals per game in their 6 games this season and they are 2-0 at home and won those games by a combined score of 6 to 1. Great spot here for home team. 10* PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) @ Virginia Tech @ 7:30 ET - Most will back the Hokies here. After all, they are at home and laying only 3 points as of gameday morning. How can this line be set like this when the Orange have lost 3 straight and the Hokies are 2-1 in ACC play plus at home for this game? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. The Orange have played a murderer's row of competition in their ACC action that preceded their bye week. They will be ready to bounce back here off their bye week while I expect Virginia Tech could come into this one overconfident. The Hokies have won 2 of last 3 games and see the Orange coming into Blacksburg with an 0-3 ACC record! We have seen this movie before! In other words, the overconfident home team is set up well to get upset here and we'll grab the points just in case but Syracuse is coming into this one highly motivated and angry off the recent results and they will get back on track. Note that Virginia Tech is 0-5 ATS as a weekday favorite the last 5 times and this looks like the ideal spot for that streak to NOT be broken and reach 6 in a row. The Hokies have struggled in this situation. Also, taking a look at recent action overall, the road team is already 4-0 SU/ATS in this week's CFB action going 2-0 Tue and 2-0 Wed and I would not be surprised to see that trend continue Thu, at least in this ACC match-up. So often the home point spread adjustment is more of an overall factor and all it actually does is give us even more value with road teams. I know I fell short in my assessments Tue and Wed after another big Saturday but look for the CFB to get right back to winning as the road team value trend continues here given the situation and the factors noted above about this match-up. 10* SYRACUSE + |
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10-26-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:30 ET - This line is as high as a 6.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. I feel we have excellent underdog line value here. All you hear about the Sixers these days is the Harden situation. You here very little about the fact this team has plenty of other talent plus has added some key personnel pieces that fit well into the other big key here that few are talking about. Nick Nurse is going to end up doing a great job in Philly. He will get more out of these players and these guys, sans Harden, are a hungry group that is a great mix of young talent and veteran leadership. I am not saying they are the best team in the east but they are one of the top ones and in this match-up with the Bucks they have the coaching edge plus we have about a half-dozen points to work with. Couple that with the hungry underdog mentality and the fact that Milwaukee could have some growing pains early this season in terms of Lillard and Giannis looking to figure out how to develop synergy on the floor together - it could be choppy early in Milwaukee. The Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset and when I see a game like this plus am getting a half-dozen points to work with, I am on it! 10* PHILADELPHIA + |
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10-26-23 | UTA Arad v. Farul Constanta 1920 OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #206873: Romania Liga 1: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Farul vs UTA @ 1 ET - Farul is emphasizing the attack in this one. They know they must be stronger in the final third and not simply play so much of a possession game. This information is per the head coach as he prepares this club for this match. Long-term they are known for scoring better on their home pitch and I expect this trend to resume for Farul here. At the same time, note that UTA is off a 2-2 draw with Rapid in which a disallowed goal was the difference and still has their head coach seething. Look for a very determined effort from the visitors here as they have been mired in a winless run and are determined to get back into the column. While I do not expect an upset win here, I do expect UTA to push hard and to be on the attack and that means plenty of scoring in this one. That is despite the recent match-up history between these teams and despite the recent low-scoring trending of Farul. The over/under on this match is set at 2.5 goals for a reason. I fully expect 3 or more given the above. 10* OVER 2.5 in Farul |
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10-26-23 | SC Freiburg v. Backa Topola OVER 3 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #224553: Europa League | Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Backa Topola vs Freiburg @ 12:45 ET - Backa Topola has trouble at this level in terms of goals conceded but that has not stopped them from putting up a fight on the attacking side of things. The Serbian club is at home for this one and they have scored 4 goals in their last 3 matches in Europa League or Champions League Qualifying action. The trouble is they have allowed an average of 3 goals per match in their last 4 matches in these competitions as well. They are a huge home dog here for a reason and I am envisioning a 3-1 type match here. Freiburg hails from the high-scoring Bundesliga and will take advantage of facing a weaker backline here. The two matches for Freiburg in Europa League competition have averaged 4 goals apiece. Of course we do not want a push here at 3 goals and I am expecting 4 or more goals to be scored in this one. However, I will mention that 6 of Freiburg's last 8 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 6 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for this one to get to the 4-goal mark as well. 10* OVER 3 +105 in Backa Topola |
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10-25-23 | Mavs -4 v. Spurs | Top | 126-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks -4 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:40 ET - Of course there is a ton of hype about the Spurs and their new big man Victor Wembanyama but he is a rookie and will have some growing pains. Additionally, Spurs coach Popovich has had a remarkable career and I have plenty of respect for him but he should have hung it up a few years ago. San Antonio will again struggle this season and not get out of the 20s in win total this season. Conversely, Dallas off a disappointing campaign but had been flying quite high prior to this and I am expecting a big bounce back year for them. They look positively re-tooled and I like this Mavs team to be very hungry early this season after the disappointment of the way last season ended. That said, covering a small number on the road against a hated division rival set for another down campaign should not be a problem. We lay it here with plenty of confidence and I look for the the Mavericks to pull away as the game goes on. The Spurs may ride some early emotion but that will take them only so far here as reality sets in as the game goes on. 10* DALLAS -4 |
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10-25-23 | UTEP v. Sam Houston State -3.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Sam Houston State Bearkats (-) vs UTEP Miners @ 8 ET - Well I am not too happy this line is up as high as a 3.5 as of early gameday morning. However, the Bearcats are absolutely the play here and should finally get that solid win they have been longing for all season long. Sam Houston is new to FBS action and they also remain the only FBS school in the nation without a SU victory yet this season. So why are the 0-7 Bearkats favored here? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you here. UTEP is a very bad team. Sam Houston has deserved better. Also, the Bearkats have the better overall defense. I know the Kats offense has struggled this season but they have been better statistically in their last 4 games and this will be their breakthrough game. The Miners are struggling and off a 28-7 loss last week. I went against them then with New Mexico State and I will do the same here! You might think UTEP should bounce back off such an ugly low-scoring loss but the trending actually shows otherwise. The Miners are actually just 1-10 ATS the last 11 times they have been a road dog and coming off a game in which they were held to single digits in scoring! Overall, in weekday road games, even though they won in that role at FIU a few weeks ago, UTEP is still just 2-9 ATS last 11 weekday road games. The Bearkats win big in this one and finally break into the win column! 10* SAM HOUSTON STATE (-) |
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10-25-23 | Capitals v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 -130 in New Jersey Devils vs Washington Capitals @ 7:37 ET - The Capitals have not been scoring much this season but they deserved much more than 1 goal on the scoreboard yesterday as they fired 37 shots on goal. That said, I feel certain they will make up for it here. Also, the Devils are off a big 5-2 win yesterday and should stay hot at home. Of course these B2B spots tend to be tough on goalie situations and that can also help add value to an over in a spot like this. That said, no hesitation in laying the small price to have the over at 6.5 goals. The Capitals are allowing about 4 goals per game this season Devils all 5 games this season have totaled at least 7 goals and they had allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game before allowing just 2 goals yesterday. The goals should fly in this one given all of the above. 10* OVER 6.5 -130 in New Jersey |
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10-25-23 | Borussia Dortmund v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #224385: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Newcastle United vs Borussia Dortmund @ 3 ET - Newcastle is on a 5-0-1 run as they are undefeated last 6 matches and have scored an average of 3.5 goals per match. Borussia Dortmund is helping to keep this total lower because they have not scored in their first two Champions League competitions in this stage. However, they averaged scoring 3 goals per match in their other 16 matches over the past 3 and 1/2 months. Remember they were one of the highest scoring clubs in the Bundesliga last season too. Plus Newcastle United scores so well at home. I just can not see this match ending with anything less than 2-1 final. We take advantage of the line value here with some 2.5 available on this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Newcastle United |
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10-25-23 | Lazio v. Feyenoord OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #224365: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +115 in Feyenoord vs Lazio @ 12:45 ET - Feyenoord will have their key attacker on the pitch for this one as Santiago Jimenez is good to go! The hosts are also favored for a reason yet it is hard to imagine Lazio not scoring here as well. That is why I foresee at least a 2-1 final here but certainly expect much more. Lazio has scored at least 1 goal in 8 of last 9 and also has scored 2 or more goals in 4 of last 5 including 3 straight! Feyenoord has been on a major scoring spree and is averaging 3.5 goals scored per match last 10 matches! Those matches have averaged 4.5 goals apiece and I am looking for 4 to 5 goals here. 10* OVER 3 +115 in Feyenoord |
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10-24-23 | Flyers +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line +1.5 -135 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 11 PM ET - The Flyers are off an OT loss at Dallas and there is no shame in that. The fact is Philly has been a pleasant surprise early this season. I had a feeling coming into the year that having Briere in the front office and Keith Jones in a hockey operations role and another season in the Tortorella system was going to get this Flyers team going. They will not be great this season but the point is they are improving and they are competitive and that is why they are already 3-1-1 on the season and actually at the top of the Metro Division. This team is already starting to believe in itself and they can give Vegas all they can handle here. I am not saying they win outright, though this would not shock me. What I am saying though is this game could ultimately be decided by just a 1-goal margin. Vegas has allowed 3 goals in each of the last 2 wins and they never should have won the game before that either - it was a fortunate SO win for the Golden Knights in which they rallied late. Don't be surprised when this one also goes to the wire. 10* PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +1.5 -135 |
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10-24-23 | Suns +1.5 v. Warriors | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The line is as high as +1.5 on the Suns here but some books even have the Suns as a 1 point favorite in this one as of early gameday morning. Essentially this line is in the pick'em range. This sets up perfectly for me as a contrarian play and I love contrarian plays in the NBA. Last season Golden State was 33-8 at home while the Suns were 17-24 on the road. You think the odds makers are unaware of this home/road dichotomy? Of course not. That said, this line has been set this way with good reason and Phoenix is projected to be the stronger team this season and I am going to ride them right away here in Game 1 of the new season as they get the road win against this over-rated Warriors bunch. Look for the absence of Draymond Green to hurt Golden State as they sure could use his defense in a match-up like this. 10* PHOENIX (+) |
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10-24-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Red Wings -118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Detroit Red Wings -120 vs Seattle Kraken @ 8:15 ET - The Red Wings have won 5 straight games and have been extremely impressive as all 5 wins have come by multi-goal margins and the average margin has been 3 goals apiece. This is a classic case of hot versus not as the Kraken are struggling early this season. I was really surprised Seattle was as successful as they were last season and think their early season struggles are a reality check plus a sign of things to come this season. The Kraken have lost 5 of 6 games and been held to 1 goal or less in all 5 of those losses. This is a bargain line based on last season's versions of these teams. The Wings are improved and the Kraken have declined. 10* DETROIT -120 |
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10-24-23 | Liberty v. Western Kentucky +5.5 | Top | 42-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) vs Liberty Flames @ 7:30 ET - Something fishy here with this line. It opened even lower than the current number which, as of early gameday morning, is in the 5.5 range. Love the home dog value here. Liberty is undefeated on the season but they just allowed 35 points last week and have played a very weak schedule. This could be the week the Flames finally lose but, even if the Hilltoppers fall short, I expect them to do enough for the ATS win. The key here is that Western Kentucky is only 4-3 on the season but their overall season stats are impacted by a blowout loss to Ohio State. Note that their other two defeats, including one last week at Jacksonville State, have each come by just a field goal. That said, Western Kentucky is a tougher opponent than one might think from just looking at their record and comparing it to Liberty here. In their most recent weekday home game, the Toppers blew out MTSU by a 31-10 count. That brings their current run to 7-0 ATS in weekday home games! Look for that ATS streak to reach 8 in a row here. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (+) |
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10-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 7 ET - The over is perfect in Hurricanes games this season and the games are crushing the posted totals. The Lightning are not far behind as all but one of their games has gone over the total. The Hurricanes are not getting the typical goaltending they are use to and the same holds true for the Lightning with Vasilevskiy out. Also, these are two very potent teams in terms of high-scoring attacks and so we should see plenty of goals in this one! 10* OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay |
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10-24-23 | FC Copenhagen v. Manchester United OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #224349: Champions League | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +100 in Manchester United vs FC Copenhagen @ 3 ET - The last 2 matches for Manchester United in Champions League Group Stage action have totaled 5 and 7 goals, respectively. It is hard not to like the over in this one with numbers like that! Manchester United, in their matches across all competitions, continues to have some inconsistent play defensively but they remain dangerous on the attack as per usual. Man U has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 10 matches. 8 of those 10 matches totaled at least 3 goals. Those 8 averaged 4 goals apiece and I am looking for a 3-1 type match here. Man U is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for a reason but I do not see FC Copenhagen being blanked here. Man U has allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 11 matches. FC Copenhagen has both scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 matches. 10* OVER 3 +100 in Manchester United |
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10-24-23 | Bayern Munich v. Galatasaray OVER 3.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #224329: Champions League | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +110 in Galatasaray vs Bayern Munich @ 12:45 ET - Match after match Galatasaray is scoring goals like crazy. 11 of last 12 matches across all competitions Galatasaray has scored at least 2 goals. They also have proven to be comeback kids in recent matches and that has given this club extra confidence and they will have some success on the attack here on their home pitch against Bayern Munich. However, the visitors have a stellar attack of their own as well. Bayern Munich has scored at least 2 goals in 13 of last 14 matches and has averaged scoring 3 goals per match during this stretch. Look for a 3-2 type final here. 10* OVER 3.5 +110 in Galatasaray |
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10-23-23 | 49ers -6.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - Generally speaking I like playing strong teams off losses and fading mediocre or bad teams off wins. That said, this one already sets up perfectly with the Niners off their first loss of the season in an upset defeat at Cleveland plus the Vikes off the divisional win over the Bears last week. The big key though that has me pulling the trigger with a top play here is that there also is strong historical ATS data that adds to the strength factor here. In other words, we have a good situation already as we know we have the better team angry off a loss and we are fading a team off a key win that also has, by the way, alternated ATS wins and losses all season long. However, what really strengthens this one is the fact that the Vikings have failed to cover 8 in a row when they are a dog on Monday Night Football. Also, San Francisco has covered 11 times in a row when they are off an outright upset loss as a road favorite and now facing a team that is off a SU win. The 49ers also have covered 6 straight times when they are on the road on Monday night. As the saying goes, good teams win but great teams cover and I like taking a good team when the are in a spot when they should bring their top effort. That usually ends up being one of their games with a great result! In other words, I am happy to test the triple perfect ATS angles here and we'll lay the points which is currently less than 7 at 6.5 in some spots as of early gameday morning! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) |
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10-23-23 | Canadiens v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres @ 7:05 ET - Both teams off wins Saturday that stayed under the total. However, part of the reason those games were low-scoring is because Montreal hosted a Capitals team that has major issues in the goal-scoring department right now and Buffalo hosted an Islanders team that, other than one exception, has trended toward low-scoring games this season. Now the Sabres and Canadiens are each facing more of an attack-minded foe here and I expect the goals to come in well in this one. Buffalo had started slow this season but they have now won 2 of 3 and scored 3 goals in all 3 games. Montreal was allowing an average of 4 goals per game before their low-scoring win over the punch-less Caps. They are averaging 3 goals scored per game this season and I am looking for, per all of the above, each team to get to the 3-goal mark here and that would guarantee us nothing less than a 4-3 final. 10* OVER 6.5 in Montreal |
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10-23-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +115 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 5:07 ET - The money line for this one is just a little too high for me from a risk standpoint. I look for the Phillies to close out this series with a win here and will turn to the run line for the better value in this one. Here is the key in regards to this...the Phillies last 9 wins have all come by at least a 2-run margin and that includes all 8 in this post-season. Also, those 9 wins have come by an average margin of 5 runs per game and there is nothing average about that! Certainly I have respect for the Dbacks Kelly but the Phillies got to him for 3 homers in the first meeting in this series and they are so strong here at home. Nola gets the start for Philadelphia here and has been vintage Nola in this post-season. He has held opponents to a .182 batting average and has not allowed any homers in his 18.2 innings in this post-season. The Diamondbacks have not a had one-run loss on the road since early August! So, again, if you like the Phillies to win here at home you can rest a little easier in terms of laying the run line when you consider numbers like this. Arizona's last 16 road losses have all come by a multi-run margin! Hats off to the Dbacks for those wins in Game 3 and Game 4 at home but then losing Game 5 at home completely reversed all that momentum and Philly will be rocking tonight for this one. The Phillies also have the post-season experience edge and appear destined to get back to the World Series. How confident can we be in that assessment? Well the Phillies are now a PERFECT 11-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. 10 of those 11 have come by at least a 2-run margin including all 6 in this post-season! Look for this home team multi-run win streak to reach a perfect 7-0 in this post-season right here for the Phillies. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +115 |
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10-23-23 | Fulham v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #200005: English Premier League: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -125 in Tottenham vs Fulham @ 3 ET - Tottenham is out for revenge. They were knocked out of the EFL Cup by Fulham in a match that ended 1-1 and was decided on penalty kicks. Fulham prevailed and this was just 2 months ago so Tottenham certainly has not forgotten. Now these clubs meeting Premier League action and this is a different kettle of fish for Fulham to deal with. I look for Tottenham to dominate in this one and the odds makers are certainly calling for that with this goal line as high as -1.5 goals on the Hotspur. The fact is that Tottenham is off to a great start in league action and they are highly motivated to continue it here. Fulham is scoring an average of 1 goal per match this season plus they are allowing 2 goals per match when on the road. Tottenham is allowing 1 goal per match this season on average but also averaging 2 goals per match and the Hotspur had scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 matches before the tight 1-0 win at Luton Town. Their attacking prowess will be back on full display in this one I am sure! 10* OVER 3 -125 in Tottenham |
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10-23-23 | Otelul v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj vs Otelul Galati @ 2 PM ET - CFR Cluj is a massive favorite here including laying two goals on the goal line! That said, if the oddsmakers are right about this line and we expect Galati to score at least one goal, then we are talking about a match that should end at least 3-1. We only need 3 goals to be a winner here and I like our chances! Galati has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 8 matches. They have averaged 1 goal per stretch during this stretch. CFR Cluj is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league and is averaging 2 goals scored per match on the season. Combining that with the fact that they are at home angry off a draw and facing one of the weaker clubs in the league means we should see plenty of scoring from CFR Cluj. I would not be surprised if they get this total over all by themselves. Either way, absolutely expecting 3 or more goals here given the situation. 10* OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj |
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10-23-23 | Botosani v. Sepsi OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Sepsi vs Botosani @ 11 AM ET - These two clubs are struggling badly but Sepsi is finally back on their home pitch and their most recent match here saw 7 goals scored. Also, they have scored in all 6 of their home matches this season. Botosani is off a 1-0 loss but this was preceded by them both scoring and conceding in 5 straight matches! Those 5 matches averaged 4 goals apiece! The last time these clubs met here Sepsi won 7 to 0. Both clubs are desperate for a victory here. There is reason to believe, per the above, that we will see each club score and then when you factor in the push for a victory because of both clubs in desperate need of a win, I can not see this match ending with anything less than 2-1. 10* OVER 2.5 in Sepsi |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - This is a great spot for a play on the Eagles at a bargain price. As of early gameday morning the line on this one is -2.5 or -3 and Philly is at home here. Their last 4 games were against teams that all now have reached 3 wins on the season. What does that matter here? Well, the Dolphins have 4 games this season against teams that are now a combined 3-21 SU on the season! That is not a mistype. 4 teams now sitting all at 1-5 SU or worse on the season. Miami has faced two teams with a pulse. They allowed 34 points and 48 points in those 2 games. One was a 2-point win and the other was a 28-point loss. I am not sold on this Miami team just yet. I am sold on grabbing the Eagles off a loss when they are coming off a Super Bowl season and have faced the tougher schedule than their opponent and are at home and laying only a field goal. This is a great value. Philly has the much better defense in this match-up. They also are at home and they are coming off a loss. I do not see them losing two straight in a situation like this and their offense is also statistically better than their point total shows. That said, they are capable of trading scores with this high-powered Dolphins team. However, I do think their defense will get enough stops to slow this game down and not let Miami get the kind of game they want this to be. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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10-22-23 | Rangers +104 v. Astros | Top | 9-2 | Win | 104 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line +105 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - For those of you that like playing trends or streaks, the crazy fact is that the road team has won all 5 of these games. The Rangers should be rejoicing in the fact that the series returns to Houston. All kidding aside, the road team "advantage" likely to continue here because I love this pitching match-up too. Just look at the stats on these guys. Eovaldi is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA in the post-season. Valdez is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in the post-season! Not only that, the Rangers are a perfect 6-0 in this post-season in road games! The Astros won their very first game of the post-season at home but, since then, the road team is a perfect 8-0 in Astros games! Look for that streak to reach 9-0 here as the Rangers get it done behind a strong start from Eovaldi and they pound Valdez. The latter has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 16 and 1/3 innings! The former has dominated in all 3 of his post-season outings and appears to be "in the zone" and pitching with a ton of confidence. The road team domination continues in this series and we'll see you for Game 7 tomorrow! 10* TEXAS +105 |
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10-22-23 | Flames -139 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -139 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Calgary Flames Money Line -140 @ Detroit Red Wings @ 5 ET - Nice set up here with Detroit in the 2nd game of B2B while Calgary has been off since Friday. Also, the Saturday game for Red Wings was a win but they were outshot 37 to 23. The Friday game for the Flames was a loss but they outshot Columbus in that game 37 to 29. Give me the rested Flames here and angry off a loss. Note that Detroit is off to a hot start this season but this is their first tough B2B spot and the road team is favored over a Red Wings team that has won 4 straight and is at home absolutely for a reason! 10* CALGARY -140 |
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10-22-23 | Steelers v. Rams -3 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:05 ET - There is much more than a revenge angle to this game but first off it is worth noting the last meeting between these teams ultimately cost the Rams a playoff spot. The coaches were the same and Sean McVay will be out for payback over Mike Tomlin in this one. Prior to last season's surprising disappointment for the Rams after winning the Super Bowl the year before, the Rams had only missed the playoffs one time after McVay's rookie season with the team. The year was 2019 and the Rams lost as a favorite in a game that would have improved them to 6-3 on the season had they won. LA never lost another game they were favored in the rest of the way but ultimately ended the season 9-7 and needing that 10th win for a playoff spot. The Rams ended the 2019 season as the only NFC team with a winning record to NOT make the post-season. Losing that game to the Steelers (you need to win the games you are favored in) ultimately proved to be the difference! The set up entering this one is great because the Steelers, though off a bye week, got an upset win over the Ravens the week before. Los Angeles is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 7 times when they are favored by less than 7 points and facing a team that is off an outright upset winner as an underdog! The Rams are catching the Steelers off a key divisional upset win and the timing is perfect for LA to take that run to 8-0 ATS! I am looking for a blowout home win here and taking advantage of the line value. The Steelers have won games with smoke and mirrors this season. They rank horribly from a yardage perspective both on offense and defense this season! It is truly a miracle that they have a winning record this season. We take advantage with exceptional line value here as the Rams have faced a very tough schedule with games against the NFC best 49ers and Eagles already this season and yet LA has survived to at least be 3-3 so far this season and that is despite a 1-2 record in home games because of having faced Philly and SF here. I feel the Rams are a bit under-rated right now as a result and, also, this Steelers team is absolutely over-rated right now! We take advantage. Lay the points (currently -3 as of early game day morning) with the home team in this one. The Steelers have won the recent meetings between these teams but McVay and Company get revenge for the most recent one right here right now with a dominating win. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS (-) |
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10-22-23 | Voluntari v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -145 in FCSB vs FC Voluntari @ 2 ET - This total is set at 2.5 goals with a high price on the over with good reason. FCSB is a huge favorite here and should get the solid victory in this one but FC Voluntari continues to get involved in high-scoring games this season and I can not see them being shutdown completely here! FCSB is off a 1-0 win but this followed a stretch in which each of their 3 matches totaled at least 4 goals! Also, each club has scored at least 1 goal in each of the last 3 meetings between these nearby rivals (Voluntari is essentially a suburb of Bucuresti) and 3 of their last 4 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals. FCSB is at the top of the table thanks in large part to scoring an average of 2 goals per match on the season. FC Voluntari is near the bottom of the table because they are allowing an average of 2 goals per match on the season! But, the visitors can score well too and yet they are off shocking B2B 0-0 draws. They will bounce back on the attack here but FCSB will be relentless on the attack too because their most recent home match was a draw AND their most recent match hosting FC Voluntari was also a draw. As a result, even with a lead here, the hosts are going to keep the pressure on the attack throughout this match. 10* OVER 2.5 -145 in FCSB |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts OVER 41 | Top | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - Watch the Browns defense soften up after facing a very tough 49ers team last week and notching an upset win. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland could get a boost with the return of QB Watson. Either way, I expect the Browns offense to enjoy a lot more success this week as they go from facing a league-best Niners defense to facing one of the league's lesser defensive units as they take on the Colts this week. However, even with a bad defense the news is not all bad in Indy this week. The Colts offense will again be led by QB Minshew and I expect them to again move the ball well this week but avoid the turnovers that plagued them against Jacksonville last week. Minshew has a history of this. He'll have an ugly game with turnovers and then follow it up with a solid effort. I think he and the Colts are catching the Browns in the perfect spot to get back on track. Cleveland's defense ranks high and that is what is keeping this total low but the Browns D likely to be a bit flat after the upset win over San Francisco. Also, in a bit of a scheduling quirk, Cleveland has had only one road game this season prior to this week and we are now in late October! The Browns defense tends not to travel and they have allowed 24 points on average in last 10 games away from home. So if the odds makers are correct with their point spread here - as they so often are - that would put this game in the 28-24 range if Browns allow their typical road average. That is double digits above the current posted total on this one in the 40.5 to 41 range as of early game day morning! I love the value here considering the situation. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis |
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10-22-23 | West Ham United v. Aston Villa OVER 3 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #200001: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -175 or 3 -110 in Aston Villa vs West Ham United @ 11:30 AM ET - These 2 clubs have been scoring plenty. Aston Villa on a long scoring streak particularly in home matches while West Ham United continues to be goal-happy across all competitions. That said, I am looking for a wild one here in the lone Sunday Premier League match-up. West Ham has a great history here with having gone 3-0 in the last 3 here and overall they have scored an average of 2.2 goals in the last 5 meetings with Aston Villa no matter the venue. That said, they will be confident here but Aston Villa has been strong on their home pitch and this is why I would not be surprised to see a 2-2 type match in this one! Aston Villa has scored 13 goals in their 3 home matches in league action this season! West Ham United is scoring an average of 2 goals in their EPL matches this season! Overall, across all competitions, 11 of West Ham's last 14 have totaled at least 3 goals! Those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and that is what I am forecasting here as well! 10* OVER 2.5 -175 or 3 -110 in Aston Villa |
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10-22-23 | Petrolul 52 v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #206857: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 11 AM ET - This total is set at 2.5 goals even though Petrolul Ploiesti has played 3 straight 0-0 draws! Must be some kind of mistake, right? Of course, long-time followers know how I feel about supposed oddsmakers "mistakes". The fact is that Universitatea Craiova is a big money line favorite here for a reason and I am also sure that Petrolul Ploiesti is going to break through and finally get back on track in the goal-scoring department here. The visitor is fully focused on that while the home favorite is ready for a blowout win after they, ironically, are also off a scoreless draw. Universitatea Craiova had seen, before that 0-0 final, 5 of last 7 matches total at least 3 goals and those 7 matches averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Look for at least a 2-1 final which, by the way, was also the final score the last time these clubs met here. More of the same in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in Universitatea Craiova |
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10-21-23 | Phillies -121 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -120 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies and Diamondbacks are now knotted up in this series. This is a critical Game 5 and I like the fact Wheeler outdueled Gallen in Game 1 and is certainly capable of the same here. Wheeler dominated in road games this season. Also, the Phillies, despite B2B losses, are still 8-3 last 11 games and the 3 losses were ALL one-run losses while the 8 wins were by a combined score of 51 to 9. That is an average score of 6 to 1 and that compares to a 4-3 average score in their 3 losses. The point is that the Phillies very easily could have won all 11 of these games and I fully expect a bounce back here. Arizona is just 7-6 last 13 games dating back to regular season and they scored an average of just 1 run per game in those 6 losses. The Dbacks are a quality team that deserves to be here for sure. But the point of all the above is that the Phillies still rate a notch above them. Also, in a critical Game 5 like this, that post-season experience Philly got last season really helps them. You saw the Astros make it 3-2 in their series yesterday and I expect the Phillies to do the same here as the post-season pressure experience from last season pays off. Looks like we could be headed toward an Astros-Phillies rematch. But, first things first, the Phillies must win here or they are really up against it even though the series shifts back to Philly after this. Wheeler and Co get it done here! 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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10-21-23 | Utah +7 v. USC | Top | 34-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ USC Trojans @ 8 ET - Now the Trojans are sure to bounce back, right? After all, they were on a huge roll before getting destroyed by Notre Dame last week. However, there is a key to that hot run they were on! USC played 4 teams that currently have a combined record of 5-20 SU on the season! Surely the Trojans must have faced some tough teams before the Fighting Irish though, right? Nope! They barely hung on to beat Colorado by 7 and the Buffaloes have been proven to be a fraud and have one of the worst defenses in the league and they are very weak in the trenches. The other match-up in the Trojans 6-0 start was a 3-OT win over Arizona and the Wildcats are nothing special this season. So the point is USC had not really been challenged until they faced Notre Dame and we all saw how that went. Now they face a Utah team that is tough in the trenches and is willing to punch teams in the mouth. That is part of the reason the Utes got the wins over Southern Cal last season too. They are a scrappy, hard-nosed, well-coached team and they are catching a full TD in this match-up because QB is the high-profile position everyone pays attention to. Keep in mind, the Utes QB played well last week and we saw the Trojans QB struggle as he finally faced a tougher team and threw 3 interceptions. Based on the line movement in this one, everyone is backing the revenge-minded Trojans and the line is now up to a 7 as of early gameday morning. I love fading the popular choices and will gladly grab the gritty Utes here who just have to play a clean football game without a bunch of turnovers and they could even get the upset here. Either way I certainly like this tough defense at a full +7 and feel the Trojans could be suffering a case of unbeaten letdown this week! 10* UTAH (+) |
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10-21-23 | Islanders v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Buffalo Sabres vs New York Islanders @ 7:07 ET - This is a great spot for an over. Islanders are in a B2B spot and off a 5-4 loss in the shootout! Now, because of the B2B, they will use a goalie that has not even played yet this season. Also, because of injury, the Sabres are in the same boat and starting a goalie that has not played yet this season! It is expected to be Varlamov for the Islanders and Comrie for the Sabres. Note that the Sabres lost the first meeting between these teams this season and they are out for revenge here plus at home plus catching the Islanders in a B2B. When you consider all those key facts, Buffalo is absolutely going to push the pace here. They are hungry for a home win after a slow start to the season but pushing hard up the ice could open up the opportunity for the Islanders to counter the other way with some breakaway chances. I am looking for an entertaining affair as both clubs well aware of the fact they are facing a goalie that has not played yet this season and they need to test the netminder early and often in this one. 10* OVER 6.5 in Buffalo |
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10-21-23 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan +9.5 | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +9.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - Certainly it has been a rough run for the Roughriders but they need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive and force Calgary to win next week's game. That said, I am not saying they will win this week's game but I am saying Saskatchewan will at least keep this a one score game. This game means nothing for the Argonauts. They have already wrapped up the East division. Sure they want to stay tuned up for the post-season but they also do not want to risk injury here either. I would not be surprised to see quite a few back ups for the Argos in this one. That said, there is a ton of value here with the Riders as a home dog catching nearly a dozen points. Of course if you look at YTD records and YTD stats this line seems about right. But again, this one is all about the situation! The Argos will struggle to win this game, let alone cover, against a very determined home side that is playing for their post-season life here! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +9.5 |
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10-21-23 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia OVER 48 | Top | 48-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in West Virginia Mountaineers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - We have seen this total drop from the low 50s to as low as 48 in some spots now as of early gameday morning. The last 4 meetings between these teams have all been unders too. That said, as long-time followers know, I am a contrarian and I love fading trends like this when the situation is right and the line value is there. Certainly in this case all the key factors are lining up well! The Mountaineers are off a heartbreak miracle hail mary catch at Houston to lose to the Cougars 41 to 39 last week. How does a defense bounce back from that? They do not! As for the Cowboys, they gave up a pile of points last week too but got a morale-boosting 39 to 32 win and have won back to back games over Kansas and Kansas State. Oklahoma State has scored at least 27 points in 5 of their 6 games this season. If the odds makers are right about the number here, like they usually are, the Mountaineers win this game by about 3 points. That puts this one at 30-27 if the Cowboys just hit their typical minimum this season! That is nearly 10 points higher than the current posted total and I feel we have excellent line value here. The Cowboys offense is showing big improvement of late but their defense has been susceptible of late and the Mountaineers just threw for nearly 400 yards at Houston last week. I know the WVU defense has put up some good numbers in some games this season but last week's game against the Cougars a sign of things to come and OSU has revenge here for last season's home loss. The Cowboys lost their regular season home finale to the Mountaineers and they are use to dominating in this series so they have payback on their minds here in Morgantown. The way their defense is playing though they are going to have to rely on their offense in their payback quest in this one. That said, look for plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in West Virginia |
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10-21-23 | Manchester United v. Sheffield United OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #200193: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -120 in Sheffield United vs Manchester United @ 3 ET - The last 4 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and the 4 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and I am expecting at least that here. Sheffield United is at home so they should at least be able to get on the scoresheet here. However, they are a massive underdog with good reason in this one. Sheffield has conceded goals like crazy in league action. In fact, in their last 7 league matches they have allowed an average of 3 goals per match! Man U has scored multiple goals in 3 of its last 4 matches across all competitions and they are in need of a break out game here. Even though they are off a win versus Brentford, they still have lost 2 of last 3 across all competitions. This can be a statement game for Man U coming off the international break and I expect them to view this match as such and issue a beatdown. That should coincide with this match being a blowout win! Also, Man U has no draws in 8 matches this season and Sheffield has just 1 draw in their 8 matches this season so you can see why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here but truly expecting much more as the hosts goal-conceded trouble continue here. 10* OVER 3 -120 in Sheffield United |
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10-21-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. Farul Constanta 1920 OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #206849: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Farul Constanta vs Universitatea Cluj @ 2:45 ET - Farul and Universitatea Cluj both off 1-0 wins. However, the winners in the last two meetings have each scored 2 goals and I do not see either club being shutdown here and that means at least a 2-1 final the way I see it. Farul is finally starting to play better and has won 3 straight matches and has scored an average of 1.7 goals per match during this stretch. Remember they are the defending champs and they are known for scoring better at home. Universitatea Cluj has scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches. There is a reason that, despite recent low-scoring trending in the league, this one is set at 2.5 goals. Look for 3 or more here. Strong reason to believe that each team gets to 1 goal here and then note that Farul has ZERO draws in their 11 matches this season! 2-1 at least here the way I see it. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Farul |
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10-21-23 | Arsenal v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 110 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #200189: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Chelsea vs Arsenal @ 12:30 ET - Chelsea is finally getting things going. They have have won 3 straight matches overall and have scored an average of 3 goals in their last two EPL matches. Arsenal has scored at least 1 goal in 14 straight matches across all competitions and has averaged scoring 2 goals per match during this stretch. Also, 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 4 goals and those 3 matches averaged 5 goals apiece! I would not be surprised to see at least a 2-2 match here the way these clubs are going but certainly we should see at least a 2-1 final. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Chelsea |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -4.5 | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - The line opened at nearly a TD but is down to the 4.5 range and I love fading movement like this. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 SU and ATS this season while the Buckeyes are also 6-0 SU but do have some ATS losses and I like that factor here as I feel Penn State is a bit over-valued here. Both defenses have been great this season. However, there is a key here in that the Nittany Lions have not faced anyone in terms of a threat offensively. The 3 Big Ten teams they have faced are Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern. All 3 have been horrible on offense. In non-conference action, PSU has also faced some really bad teams offensively. At least Ohio State had to battle a strong Notre Dame team this season plus they did face a respectable offense in non-conference action when they took on Western Kentucky. The point is I feel the Buckeyes have the better defense and are more battle-tested no matter what the stats say. Also, OSU is at home for this one and their QB already engineered a key win over the Fighting Irish in a pressure-packed situation. Conversely, though Lions QB Allard has been great this season, this will be his first real test and he is on the road and his team is facing an opponent that has been dominating them in recent seasons. I look for another solid home win here as Penn State is getting close but they are just not quite there yet and they get exposed here and the Buckeyes pull away to win this game by double digits. 10* OHIO STATE (-) |
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10-20-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. BC | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (+) @ BC Lions @ 10 ET - This game is much more important to Calgary - an 8.5 dog as of early game day morning - than it is to BC. Yes, the Lions still have some motivation to win but they know it is a longshot that they can catch Winnipeg for the top spot out West. That said, the Stampeders are going to be the more motivated team. With a win here they can still control their own destiny in terms of earning a post-season spot. The Stamps also have "triple revenge" here, if you will. Calgary has been hammered by BC in both regular season games this year plus they lost in the post-season to the Lions last year! This is a great spot for a respectable Stampeders team that is better than their record shows. Adding to the solid edges here is the fact that a key WR, Begelton, has been practicing all week and is expected to be back on the field for this one as well. When a team has a solid shot at an outright upset and is the more motivated team and yet they are an underdog by more than a 1-score margin, that is something worthy of elevating a play to a strong one every time. Now certainly this is not a trap line or phony line either because BC is at home and has the much better record and has dominated this series of late. So the odds makers have set the "right number" from that perspective but, from a situational perspective, the Stamps are the very strong value here the way I see it! 10* CALGARY (+) |
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10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - The Phillies bounce back here. This is a great value spot because they have one of their lesser known pitchers on the mound so it is keeping the price down on Philly. The fact is Christopher Sanchez has been quite well and yet he is flying under the radar right now. Also, the Diamondbacks are expected to use Mantiply as an opener and then go with Ryne Nelson to get the bulk of the work on the mound. The problem is Nelson may not last long and Mantiply is not expected to get much worth either. Both guys have struggled recently but the most important is the expected bulk innings guys just got rocked by the Phillies a few days ago. Coming into this series, and it is evident so far in this series as well, Philadelphia has the bullpen edge in this match-up. Now Arizona is going with a bullpen game here. This is an ideal set up for the Phillies bats to come right back to life after a surprisingly successful start from Pfaadt last night for the Dbacks. Lay the money line price here as it is a fair one and the Phillies have all the edges except for home field in this Game 4 match-up and I expect a big bounce back effort from the power-hitting Philly sticks in this one given the pitching situation for Arizona. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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10-20-23 | Flames -138 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Flames -140 @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:07 ET - This is a great set up because even though Calgary is in a back to back they used Vladar between the pipes last night. Flames #1 goalie Markstrom will get the call tonight and he was on the wrong end of a 3-2 shootout decision in his most recent start. The Flames have won just 1 of his 3 starts but this Calgary team is much stronger than this Columbus team. The Blue Jackets are 1-2 this season but the two losses are by a combined score of 8 to 2 and their lone win was despite being outshot 42 to 21. The point is that this Columbus team could easily be 0-3 on the season and the odds certainly favor that they will be deservedly handled that 3rd loss right here. They just lost 4 to 0 to the Red Wings and already lost 4 to 2 to the Flyers and all their games have been at home this season too. That said, it is likely to be a long season for Columbus fans this go around and the Flames come into the building and get a big road win! Yes it is a -140 price range here but it is well worth it! 10* CALGARY -140 |
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10-20-23 | SMU v. Temple +24 | Top | 55-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Temple Owls (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - As of about 7 hours before kickoff the Owls are as much as a 24 point dog here. I waited for the line to jump because of the fact the Owls starting QB may not play again this week. The key difference though is last week it was announced 20 minutes prior to kickoff. This week the Owls have been preparing all week knowing that they may be going with the #2 guy. The back-up will be much better this week and we are getting a truckload of points to work with. Yes, the Mustangs are much better than the Owls but this is a rare standalone national TV game for Temple. This is the only thing going Friday night. In other words, these guys might be approaching this game as their super bowl when you consider how their season is going. Of course that does not mean they have the talent level to win this game but I do expect Temple to really step here and the Owls will keep this game a lot closer than most are expecting. Look for it to be decided by a 2-score margin as the Owls are not as bad as their record shows and will certainly be looking to put forward a strong effort at Lincoln Field in Philly. This is a rare primetime showcase for the Owls and they will make the most of it. SMU is the stronger team by far but the Mustangs also are on a 2-11 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B road conference games! That is not an easy thing to do and this their only such occurrence of that this season and we step in to take advantage! 10* TEMPLE (+) |
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10-20-23 | Granada v. Osasuna OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #201977: Spanish La Liga: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Osasuna vs Granada @ 3 ET - This is another match where you have a really struggling club, Granada, that does score well but simply can not stop anyone. That said, I feel we have excellent line value here with this total at just 2.5 goals! Note that only one club in the league has allowed more goals than Granada has so far this season. Also, Osasuna is at home and had a solid campaign last season but has struggled both continentally and domestically so far this season. That being said, I feel the hosts are absolutely going to take advantage of facing a suspect back line here and they will not hesitate to be aggressive on the attack here. Osasuna is off a 4-0 loss in most recent match and also off a 2-0 loss in most recent home match. They will be ready to respond on their home pitch here and get some scoring going but you can see why there is some concern in the goals conceded department for them of late. As for Granada, they have both scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 matches and those 6 matches have averaged a total of 5 goals apiece! We have excellent line value here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Osasuna |
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10-20-23 | SV Werder Bremen v. Borussia Dortmund OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #202453: German Bundesliga: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen @ 2:30 ET - Borussia Dortmund is just so much stronger and, of course, they are a heavy favorite here with good reason! At the same time, Werder Bremen has been scoring very well but just can not stop anyone. That being said, I love the over in this match-up. Borussia Dortmund is forecast to win by 1.5 goals based on the posted goal line and I would not be surprised at all to see a 4-2 or 3-2 or at least 3-1 type match here. Note that Werder Bremen has seen their last 5 matches average 5 goals apiece and Borussia Dortmund has seen their last 2 matches in Bundesliga action also average 5 goals apiece. 10* OVER 3.5 in Borussia Dortmund |
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10-20-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. UTA Arad OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 101 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #206841: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +100 in UTA Arad vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 2 ET - None of the last 4 meetings between these teams have topped 2 goals. Scoring overall has been down in Romania Liga 1 action last couple weeks. Arad is off B2B scoreless draws! All of that said and the oddsmakers hung a 2.5 on this one. Something fishy, eh? Well actually you know what this means! This may seem contrarian all the way but I am known to be a contrarian and I love a spot like this for an over. Not only that, there is some support for it when you take a look at the visitors in this match-up! Rapid actually has seen 5 of last 7 matches not just go over the total but actually total at least 4 goals! They way Rapid is playing plus the fact UTA is at home for this one, I am looking for at least a 2-1 type of match here! Great value considering we do not have to lay juice here! 10* OVER 2.5 in UTA Arad |
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10-19-23 | Hurricanes v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 6 in Seattle Kraken vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 10:07 ET - The Hurricanes are off a big 6-3 win at San Jose where they pulled away in the 3rd period. I keep thinking Carolina is going to get better goaltending but it just hasn't happened yet this season. It has surprised me so far as all 4 of their matches have totaled at least 9 goals! I look for the high-scoring trend to continue and feel we have excellent line value here with this total at 6 goals. The fact is Carolina has been so dangerous in the offensive zone but here they face a desperate Kraken team and the game is in Seattle. Note that the Kraken have allowed an average of 3 goals per game in regulation time of their first 4 games but have had trouble scoring goals. This is just their 2nd home game however and it comes after being held to 1 goal by the Avalanche. The Avs, however, have allowed just 4 goals TOTAL in 3 games this season! Conversely, the Canes have allowed 4 goals PER GAME this season so far. So this is a completely different situation and the Kraken are ready to get going on home ice. However, they will not be able to stop red hot Caroline either. As a result, this should be a high-scoring non-conference match-up where it would not surprise me to see each team get to the 3-goal mark and that would guarantee us of at least a 4-3 final here. 10* OVER 6 in Seattle |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints -130 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - This line, as of mid-morning game day, is mostly a -2 or you can look at about -130 on the money line. I definitely like the Saints in this spot a ton even with the line moving slightly toward them. For one thing there are questions about the health of Jaguars QB Lawrence entering this one. But, more importantly, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Jags as they are now on short rest and this is after spending two weeks in London for multiple games there before coming back stateside for last week's game and now they have the short turnaround for the Thursday game and this one is on the road. Also, the Jags have been winning some games with "smoke and mirrors" the way I see it. A lot of favorable bounces have gone the way of Jacksonville and they have had some turnover-fueled wins. The Saints are a solid defensive team as the stats show and I feel we have excellent value with the much better defense at home and coming off a loss and facing a travel-weary foe in this one. 10* NEW ORLEANS (-) |
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10-19-23 | Rice +3.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7 ET - Current line 3.5 at time of posting late morning game day. Both teams are off a bye and both are off losses before their bye week. However, Rice actually had a huge yardage edge against Connecticut and that was a turnover-fueled loss that is helping to give us line value now this week. I say that because these Owls have been moving the ball quite well and getting decent QB play. The same can not be said for Tulsa and they also have some inconsistency issues at QB as well. I just can not trust the Golden Hurricane with the QB play they have been getting and also their 3 wins are against an FCS school and a pair of FBS schools that each have losing records this season. The Owls defense has improved some in recent weeks too. I know the Owls are still searching for their first road win but this looks like a great spot to get it and I definitely do not trust this Tulsa offense. It has not matter who is at QB for them. The Golden Hurricane had a blowout win over a bad Temple team and an FCS school but in their other 4 games against FBS foes this season, they have averaged just 16.5 ppg this season. The Owls also have more consistency in terms of their head coach in his 5th season here while Tulsa under a new coach this season. Grab the road dog here to get it done in this one. If they do fall short look for it to be a field goal at most and the current line on this as of late morning on game day is 3.5 points. 10* RICE (+) |
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10-19-23 | Phillies -116 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 5:07 ET - The Phillies have Suarez on the mound and he rates a big edge over Pfaadt! Not only that the Phillies are simply flying with confidence right now. The fans for this one, even though it is in Arizona, could actually feature a surprising amount of Philly fans as the Diamondbacks are simply not a big draw down there. The Phillies have been dominating and this is a tough spot for Pfaadt to face a power hitting lineup and Suarez was great late in the regular season especially and has been solid already in this post-season. He has really come through in the most pressure-filled portion of the season. So the Phillies also hold the pitching edge here too and that includes the bullpen edge as well. So look for Philadelphia's to continue their hot roll. The Phillies have won 8 of 9 games and 7 of 8 in this post-season. Their only loss was by 1 run in this post-season and their 7 wins have been by a combined score of 42 to 8. That is an average score of 6 to 1. The point is they are not just winning, they are dominating! They have been crushing teams and, having already beaten the Dbacks two best pitchers I do not see a problem with them beating Pfaadt in this match-up. That is not a knock against Pfaadt, that is just that the Phillies lineup has been too much and he is not quite ready for this stage. This Philly lineup is loaded with sluggers and Chase Field is also a hitter friendly back like Citizens Bank Park. The ball will be flying here and that favors the red hot Phillies sluggers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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10-19-23 | Argentinos Juniors v. Gimnasia OVER 2 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Rotation #208093: Argentine Copa de la Liga Profesional, Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -110 in Gimnasia La Plata vs Argentinos Juniors @ 3 ET - Look for goals here. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. Those 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 goals apiece! Of course we get a low total here because of recent trending for these clubs but they have proven when they meet that goals are on the agenda. Also, based on the current situation in the table this also will result in both clubs pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table. That means a 1-1 match should still end up finding its way to 2-1 here. Indeed, I am looking for a 2-1 final at least here. 6 straight Gimnasia La Plata matches in which they host have totaled at least 2 goals and these matches have actually averaged 3 goals apiece. Argentinos Juniors most recent road match was a scoreless draw but this followed 4 straight league matches in which they scored at least 1 goal and they averaged 1.5 goals in those 4 matches. Those 4 matches averaged 3 goals apiece and this one should get there as well. The total of 2 is a great value. 10* OVER 2 -110 in Gimnasia La Plata |
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10-19-23 | Sepsi v. CSMS Iasi OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -130 in Poli Iasi vs Sepsi @ 1 ET - The last 4 times these teams have met have all totaled at least 2 goals. The last 3 have all totaled at least 4 goals and actually averaged 5 goals apiece! 9 of 11 Poli Iasi matches have totaled at least 2 goals this season and those 9 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. As for Sepsi, they have been struggling with a losing streak but also, prior to a 1-0 loss in their most recent match, their losses had been high-scoring. 4 straight losses all totaling at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. With fresh legs too after the international break, I am expecting at least 3 goals in this one and also like the value of this one being available at 2 goals with higher juice in some spots. The total of 2 is a great value. 10* OVER 2 -130 in Poli Iasi |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State -3 v. UTEP | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play New Mexico State Aggies -3 @ UTEP Miners @ 9 ET - I know UTEP is coming off a win but that was against a bad FIU team. Also, the only other Miners win this season was against an FCS team. Since that win over Incarnate Word, UTEP had proceeded to lose 4 straight games and all the losses were by at least a 2 TD margin. The Miners coming off the win over the Panthers last week simply increases the line value here on the Aggies. UTEP might be hungrier off a loss but, off their first win over an FBS team this season, the Miners are lined up well to get hammered here. As for the Aggies, they have won 4 of 6 games and all 4 victories were by a double digit margin. Their defense is at least as good, if not better than the Miners and certainly the Aggies have the edge over this UTEP offense. The NM State offense actually has been better than we've seen in the past and I look for them to pull away for a comfortable road win in this one. Remember their season opening loss to UMass was a turnover driven defeat in which they won the yardage battle by 100 yards. They have responded ever since because one of their only 2 other losses was to a strong Liberty team. The Aggies are the better team and we get line value here because they are on the road. Lay it! 10* New Mexico State -3 |
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers -126 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line -126 vs Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - As I mentioned entering the ALCS, this Rangers lineup is the better of the two lineups in this match-up. Sure enough they have done enough to win the first two games of this series and those were both in Houston! Don't let this line now fool you in Game 3. The odds makers set it this way for a reason. Watch so many pile up on Houston to avoid a 3-0 hole here because they have Javier on the mound and he has pitched well recently and Scherzer is coming back from injury and has not pitched in quite awhile. Many will be pounding the champs to get back on track here and get back into this series but sometimes teams are a team of destiny. As you can see so far in this post-season, does it not look like both the Phillies and the Rangers are destined to make the World Series this year? Philadelphia has looked so powerful so far and the Rangers have a great mix of talent and clubhouse cohesiveness that has led to a red hot run! Texas has now won all 7 of their post-season games and they also are a perfect 6-0 L6 home games dating back to regular season! This Game 3 of ALCS will be just their 2nd home game of this post-season and it will be an incredible atmosphere for sure. The Rangers continue to ride the wave of emotion and make it 7 straight home wins and also improve to a perfect 8-0 in the post-season. Look for Javier to struggle just enough on the road for the Rangers to get that early lead and look for Scherzer to make up for his only playoff start in 2022 being a rough one. He wanted this opportunity for redemption and will make the most of it. That is my prediction for this one! 10* TEXAS -126 |
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10-18-23 | Capitals v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals @ 7:07 ET - All 3 of the Senators games have totaled at least 7 goals. The Capitals have only played twice and they have trended lower scoring but their first game was at 3-0 midway through the 2nd but died after that. The Caps second game was 2-2 at the halfway point of the 2nd period but no one scored after that. It was then decided in a shootout. The Capitals won the game in the shootout. Whether they deserved that win or not (they were heavily outshot) the fact is the Caps will pull on some positive momentum from that win and put it to good use here! However, they also have been getting peppered with shots on goal in both of their games and heavily outshot and Washington will not be able to slow down this improving Senators club at Ottawa. Look for both the Caps and Sens to reach the 3-goal mark in this one. That would push this one to at least a 4-3 final but who wins? That is not our concern as we grab the over here in a game that tops the 6.5 mark. 10* OVER 6.5 in Ottawa |
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10-18-23 | Bala Town v. Connahs Quay OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #224077: Welsh Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -125 in Connah's Quay vs Bala Town @ 2:45 ET - The Connah's Quay Nomads are in 2nd place in the league and they have a strong attack to thank for their positioning. Though they are allowing 1.3 goals per match this season, they also are scoring an incredible average of 3 goals per match on the season. There have been 11 matches for Connah's Quay so this is certainly no fluke. Their matches are consistently high-scoring and, keep in mind, their home matches have averaged a total of 4 goals apiece so I like our chances here of this one getting to at least 3 goals. Note that Bala Town has been one of the lowest-scoring clubs in the league and they have conceded only 8 goals on the campaign so they have been the stingiest club as well. However, the Nomads will dictate the flow of this match on their home pitch and I do not see them being denied here. At the same time, Connah's Quay is not opposed to being so aggressive on the attack that they allow some opportunities for their opponents on the counter-attack. Look for Bala Town to get on the board here but the hosts ultimately prevail with a victory. The result is 3 or more goals scored. 10* OVER 2.5 in Connah's Quay |
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10-18-23 | Sarajevo v. Borac Banja Luka OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #211689: Premier League of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Borac Banja Luka vs Sarajevo @ 1 ET - Borac Banja Luka is hosting this match and they are the top club in the league. Their goal-scoring has been a key to their success. Right behind them in the standings is Sarajevo and they also have had a lot of success thanks to an aggressive attack! Yes, both clubs are allowing an average of only 0.7 goals per match this season but the attacking options they have are too strong to expect anything less than a 2-1 final here. Note that Borac Banja Luka has scored an average of 3 goals per match in winning 8 straight matches since they opened the season with a shutout loss! Also, they have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their 8 wins and they allowed 2 goals in their only loss. As for Sarajevo, their most recent road match was a 1-0 loss but they have followed that up with B2B wins and scored at least 2 goals in each. Also their only other two road matches this season saw them both score and concede in each match and each match totaled 3 or more goals. More of the same here. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Borac Banja Luka |
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10-17-23 | Stars -105 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
DALLAS STARS -105 - These teams met in the Western Conference finals last season and the Golden Knights advanced and then beat Florida to win the Stanley Cup. There were 3 games in Vegas during the series with Dallas and the Knights did not beat the Stars a single time in regulation here. Vegas actually lost one of the games but then were fortunate to win each of the other two in overtime! In other words, that is certainly a series that could have played out much differently had the Knights not won each of the first two games in overtime here in Vegas. The Stars have not forgotten about this and they have been anxiously waiting for this game. They could have the fresher legs here too as the Knights are already playing for the 4th time this season while the Stars have had just one game so far. So grab the road team here and look for some big-time revenge! There is a reason this line has moved heavily toward the Stars in this one. They have a great shot at revenge here and the odds favor it happening the way I see it! DALLAS -105 |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -153 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - Before this NLCS, what a series with the Braves that just wrapped in Philly in terms of Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment and then a tight, low-scoring win to wrap things up in Game 4. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat here. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta last Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one (Game 2 after the 5-3 win in Game 1 vs Arizona) now a PERFECT 10-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Have you looked at this Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to? This lineup is so stacked and so deep! Yes, I think highly of this Diamondbacks club and they are a great team but they're facing a tough test here and unlikely to steal a game at Citizens Bank Park. I feel the lower portion of Arizona's lineup is just not quite as strong. As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup in this post-season have included guys like Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh! Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep. This is the back half of the lineup folks! This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home. Yes, Merrill Kelly is a fantastic pitcher but, as his stats clearly show, he is much more likely to struggle when facing this Phillies team here in Philly than when he faces them in Arizona. Kelly has had some road struggles this season and did struggle overall in a few of his late season starts. Aaron Nola is a fantastic veteran pitcher and was strong late in the season and also to begin the post-season and I like Philadelphia here at home even though the price is a bit moderate in the -160 range. Nola also is supported by a rock solid bullpen and I do feel strongly that Philly has the bullpen edge in this match-up. This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 11 IN A ROW! Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -160 |
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10-17-23 | Oilers -140 v. Predators | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
EDMONTON OILERS -140 - The Oilers are angry off B2B losses to start the season. They lost two games to the Canucks and now begin a 2-game road trip to the states. Look for this quick 2-game jaunt to get Edmonton going and it starts right here. The Oilers are projected to be one of the best teams in the league this season. The fact they are 0-2 gets us some added line value here. The Predators did win their only home game but I like that factor as, if this was the Preds home opener I might shy away. Overall I know this Nashville team is just not on the level the Oilers are and the Preds have already lost 2 of their first 3 games this season. Edmonton is going to be ultra determined off B2B losses and we take advantage of the line value here because if this game was at home the line would be too pricey. Here we get line value on the road! EDMONTON -140 |
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10-17-23 | Western Kentucky -7.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - This line is right around a 7.5 as of mid-morning on gameday and I am laying it! The Gamecocks got hammered at home versus Liberty last week and this followed some fortunate come from behind wins against weaker competition than the Flames. The point is that the Gamecocks are still overrated as they played a weak schedule and are very fortunate to be 5-2 SU on the season. So the Hilltoppers are only 4-2 on the season and on the road here but they are favored by a TD plus the hook? Seems like a headscratcher, right? Do not let the line fool you! Western Kentucky has played the tougher schedule and they are coming off a bye week and they are the overall better team that also has done a great job of creating turnovers this season. Jacksonville State having a 5-2 record this season will insure that the Toppers have the proper focus entering this one and I look for the road team to roll as a result. Also, this play falls into a 100% system for WKU as they have won 6 in a row ATS when they enter game off of B2B wins SU+ATS and are now facing a team with a winning record. All this makes good sense as it means when the Toppers are rolling and now facing a team with a solid record (which helps keep the line reasonable) they have stayed hot. Look for coach Tyson Helton to again have his team ready to roll here! That streak reaches 7-0 ATS! Lay it! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-) |
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10-17-23 | Canucks v. Flyers +115 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 115 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +115 - This is the Flyers home opener and they catch Vancouver off huge B2B wins over the division rival Oilers. Yes, Vancouver is 2-0 to start the season but off those B2B wins including a hard-fought 2nd game win, how much will they have left in the tank here? Canucks get caught still celebrating plus they have a perceived tougher game on deck at Tampa Bay. They might look right past the Flyers and the home dog gets it done in their home opener. PHILADELPHIA +115 |
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10-17-23 | Hungary v. Lithuania OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #225573: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105/-110 in Lithuania vs Hungary @ 2:45 ET - Hungary has won the last 3 meetings by a combined score of 8 to 0 and they are a big favorite here for a reason. However, Lithuania has been scrappy and that is why I am looking for a 2-1 type match here. I like the way both Hungary and Lithuania have been playing of late and I am expecting plenty of goals. Lithuania had allowed 2 goals per match last 5 in this competition before the 2-0 shutout victory in most recent match. That big win gives them confidence on the attack but their prior goals conceded numbers tell the full story. They will give up goals here just like they did in the 2-0 defeat in the reverse fixture. So you can see why I am looking for a 2-1 type final here as Hungary has both scored and conceded in 3 straight matches since the 2-0 win over Lithuania and this home club is starting to believe. That is why I believe the hosts score but the visitors ultimately prove to be too much in a match that should finish at least 2-1. Looking for 3 or more here in what should be one of the most entertaining matches of the night! 10* OVER 2.5 -105/-110 in Lithuania |
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10-17-23 | Kazakhstan v. Finland OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #225565: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -135/-145 in Finland vs Kazakhstan @ Noon ET - In an odd way, the pressure is off each of these clubs because they lost their most recent matches. That will result in a more free-flowing match than we saw in the first meeting which was a 1-0 Finland win. Note that Finland has conceded 4 times in their last 2 matches but they are a pricey money line favorite for a reason here. I am looking for a 2-1 type match. Kazakhstan has scored at least 1 goal in all of their matches in this group stage except for the shutout loss to Finland. In fact, Kazakhstan averaged 1.7 goals scored in these other 6 matches. They will make up for the shutout loss here but they can not stop the hosts here either. The fact this total has dropped to goals instead of 2.5 is also a solid value for us. I am expecting at least 3 goals here but like the added security of the 1.5 as well. 10* OVER 2 -135/-145 in Finland |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +2 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers + vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - This line is as high as a +2 on the Chargers as of early gameday morning and this is a great spot for the home dog. Los Angeles is coming off a bye. LA has been in their home state ever since a win 3 weeks ago at Minnesota when they knocked off the Vikings. They are now off B2B wins plus expected to get stud RB Austin Ekeler back for this one. He has been out since Week 1 and he is a helluva player! That is when he put up 164 yards of offense, including 117 on the ground on just 16 carries, and he scored a touchdown. He essentially ran roughshod over a Dolphins team that is now 5-1 on the season. Speaking of facing tough opposition, it is something these Cowboys had not done until facing the Niners last week and we all know what happened then. Dallas looked like a high school team trying to take on a college team. Yes, it was that bad. Here is the thing. Dallas is not that good. They are overrated. Look at their skill position players. Look at how they perform against better teams. Prescott always seems to struggle against the better teams as he showed again last week. So the Cowboys stats on the season are quite irrelevant because what really matters is who they have played and then how they perform against better teams. So heading into this week, the 4 teams Dallas had faced entered this week with a combined record of 5-15. Do you really care what stats Dallas put up against such bad teams when they now face a team that is expected to be in the playoffs this season? Also, of the 5 teams Dallas has faced so far this season 4 of them then lost AGAIN this week! Now the Cowboys are on the road AGAIN and they are favored AGAIN and I am going to sit back and happily watch them again disappoint the legion of Boys fans all over the globe. This team is just not strong against the better teams in the league. Year after year they give their fans false hope by annihilating bad teams (which pads their inflated stats) and then struggling against better teams. As I said, last week when we had the Niners over the Cowboys, "Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great!" and also as I alluded to last week I am not a fan of McCarthy as a coach and think he again will get out-coached this week. Give me the home team to make it 3 straight wins. Note their 2 losses were by 2 points to a now 5-1 Miami team and the other loss in OT by a FG. So I will grab the points being offered here but I do not expect to need them. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+) points |