Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-22 | Sepsi v. CFR Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in CFR Cluj vs Sepsi @ 2 PM ET - Sepsi just faced the best club in the league and lost 1-0 but they did have some great scoring chances in that match. The loss at Farul should have featured more goals for sure. We get some line value now this week with this total at just 2 goals and about a pick'em either way on the O/U. I will grab the value as Sepsi had scored at least 2 goals themselves in 3 straight matches before the loss to Farul. As for CFR Cluj, they are also one of the top clubs in the league and have scored at least 1 goal in 6 straight matches in league competition and have scored an average of 1.8 goals last 5 matches in league action. Sepsi actually can move past CFR Cluj with a victory here and move into 3rd place in the table. That said, Sepsi is going to go strong for the full 3 points in the table and note that the hosts have only 1 draw in 11 matches this season. That said, the way I see this one playing out is that each team scores at least once and then neither club willing to settle for a draw. Look for at least a 2-1 final here but we do have the added insurance that if this game lands on just 2 we get a push. But I fully expect plenty of scoring here as the CFR Cluj 1-1 draw with UTA last week was their first draw of the season and they are not happy about that. The match should have had more goals too as there were multiple shots that just missed in that one including shots off the bar of the goal. Look for at least a 2-1 final here as Sepsi will be aggressive in this one but the hosts answer on their home pitch. 10* OVER 2 in CFR Cluj |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Cowboys are expected to again be without QB Dak Prescott. Even though QB Cooper Rush has been a solid game manager for Dallas so far this season, the Cowboys still have an offense that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. They are fortunate to be 4-1 this season. The Eagles are NOT fortunate to be 5-0 this season. They have dominated for long stretches in games and are fully deserving of their undefeated record. They have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league and a solid defense that ranks well against both the run and the pass. The Cowboys are lacking a bit in terms of run defense and the Eagles had the #1 rushing attack last season and are again near the top of the league so far this season. Philly has hopes of getting to the Super Bowl this season but, until then, this is their Super Bowl. Indeed the Eagles, and the entire city of Philadelphia hates the Cowboys more than any other team in the NFL. They want revenge here for the fact they have lost 3 straight to Dallas by an average margin of 22 points per game. Keep in mind, last year's ugly loss to the Cowboys in Philly was after the Eagles clinched playoffs so they weren't playing for anything. This time they are playing for plenty and Philadelphia is 6-0 / 100% ATS the last 6 times they have been a home favorite. Dallas beat the Rams last week but were very fortunate as they were outgained by 100 yards. Now they go from the west coast to the east coast for this one and the Philly fans will be rabid for this one. What a time in Philly for the fans. Phillies going to NLCS, Flyers have started season 2-0 under new head coach, Sixers again considered an NBA title contender coming into season, and the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL. I only mention that because the passion and energy of the crowd tonight will perhaps be about the highest level you will have ever seen in a regular season NFL game in Philadelphia. I am 100% serious about that and you have the hated Cowboys in town and the Eagles currently firing on all cylinders and the likely QB match-up is early season MVP candidate Jalen Hurts over Cowboys QB Cooper Rush. I am not disrespecting Rush but just saying he was undrafted out of Central Michigan. The Eagles Hurts was a star at Alabama and Oklahoma - traditionally two of the best programs in College Football. Again, I respect what Rush has done with the Cowboys as a game manager but this will be his toughest test yet and if Prescott does play I would expect plenty of rust. Dak was very limited in practice and I really think they are going to wait on him and let the thumb heal more. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6 or -6.5 |
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10-16-22 | Yankees v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Guardians Run Line +1.5 -115 vs New York Yankees @ 7:07 ET - All the momentum and the home field edge with Guardians here. Each and every season it seems Yankees find a way to disappoint their huge fan base. They had a great regular season but they have now had B2B gut-wrenching losses! They lost 4-2 in Game 2 in New York in 10 innings. Then they took a 5-3 lead to bottom of 9th yesterday at Cleveland but still lost. I know Cole is a fantastic pitcher but Cleveland had a few chances in that Game One 4-1 loss and I feel they will be even better here against him. The Guardians confidence is sky high right now and of course now they get Cole at home. I also expect Quantrill to be even better here because he is at home for this one. He was 9-0 with a 3.28 ERA in the regular season in home starts! Cole had a solid, yet modest, 3.81 ERA in road outings this season. Also, he allowed 14 runs (13 earned) and 7 homers over his last 4 road starts and those outings averaged only 5 and 2/3 per start. Anyway I am going with action on pitchers as the Guardians wrapped up the regular season on a 24-6 run and 2 of those 6 losses were by just 1 run so I like the very strong odds on at least a run line cover though I do feel Cleveland will win outright here to advance to ALCS. Guardians already 3-0 in home games in this post-season. 10* CLEVELAND run line +1.5 -115 |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play OVER 54 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills @ 4:25 ET - I have tremendous respect for the Bills defense and I know they want revenge here and are going to bring their best effort. However, that does not change the fact that we have good weather in Kansas City for this one and the Chiefs (just like the Bills) are one of the best offenses in the league. KC is firing on all cylinders on that side of the ball right now too but I don't trust the Chiefs defense. The Bills should have no problem moving the ball here but likewise for Kansas City. Again, this is a match-up of the two best offenses in the NFL. Now the past big games between these teams, including post-season, certainly is going to up the ante in terms of defensive intensity here. But I just don't think it will matter. These two quarterbacks and these two offenses are just too good. By the way, I know Bills allowed only 3 points versus Pittsburgh last week but the Steelers actually had over 300 yards of passing offense and that was with Kenny Pickett at the controls! Can you imagine what Patrick Mahomes and Company is going to do in this one? Exactly! At the same time the Bills piled up 38 points last week and could have had even more and it was the 3rd time already this season they have topped the 30 point mark. The Chiefs have averaged scoring 32 points per game this season but are allowing an average of 25 points per game. This one turns into a huge back and forth showing between Mahomes and Josh Allen. This is going to be good! Last team with the ball wins...again...just like last year's epic battle! 10* OVER 54 in Kansas City |
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10-16-22 | UTA Arad v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +100 in FCSB vs UTA @ 1:30 ET - Across all competitions, including UEFA Europa Conference League, Football Club Steau Bucuresti (FCSB), has allowed an average of 2.8 goals per match last 5 matches. In Romania Liga 1 action, FCSB has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 3 matches. We are highly likely to see plenty of scoring here as Uzina Textila Arad (UTA) have featured 6 of last 7 matches with both themselves and their opponent scoring. Each of the last two meetings between UTA and FCSB in Bucuresti have totaled 3 goals. UTA has played one scoreless draw on the road this season but in their other 6 games as travelers they have conceded at least 1 goal in each match and are actually allowing 1.7 goals per match in that stretch. FCSB has certainly underachieved this season but they have scored at least 1 goal in all 6 home matches this season and actually are averaging 1.8 goals scored per match as a host in league action this season. There have been 33 goals in the 11 matches FCSB has played in league action and that is an average of 3 goals per match. Look for this one to hit at least that 3-goal mark. FCSB will come out fired up after getting embarrassed in UEFA Europa Conference League action and they will be an aggressive mode that will translate to plenty of scoring in this one! 10* OVER 2.5 goals +100 in FCSB |
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10-16-22 | Manchester City v. Liverpool OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 or 3.5 in Liverpool vs Manchester City @ 11:30 AM ET - Each of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled 4 or more goals and have averaged 4.4 goals per match. Look for another wild one here. Liverpool would love to slow things down here but they are not going to slow down an attacking Manchester City as Erling Braut Haaland continues to re-write the record books. Also, Liverpool is so strong at home and even in this disappointing campaign they are undefeated there and have averaged scoring 3.8 goals per match on their home pitch. The thing is that Manchester City is just a machine right now and they have averaged 3.7 goals scored per match. Look for another goal-fest between these clubs as history repeats itself and I am looking for a solid over in this one that gets to 4 goals at a minimum. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 or 3.5 in Liverpool |
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10-16-22 | Newcastle United v. Manchester United +100 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play Manchester United Money Line +100 vs New Castle United @ 9 AM ET - I realize Newcastle is playing better but they are still a club known for struggling on the road. This season has been no different with the exception of a 4-1 win at Fulham but that was fueled by the hosts getting a red card just 8 minutes in. Newcastle was able to take advantage and turn it into a rout. So now we are getting line value here because of that 11 on 10 scenario setting up a blowout for Newcastle the last time they were on the road. Keep in mind, Manchester United has really turned the corner since their ugly start to this season. I just don't see them being denied here on their home pitch. Newcastle won just 5 of 19 as travelers last season and has won only 1 of 4 this season on the road. Manchester United only lost 4 of 19 matches as hosts last season and they have already won 2 of 3 this season. So far Manchester United has had a road-heavy schedule and they will take advantage of this opportunity on their home pitch. The last meeting between these clubs was a draw but that was at Newcastle and was preceded by 4 straight Manchester United wins and all were by a multi-goal margin including 3 of the 4 by a 3-goal margin. The home/road dichotomy here is just not being properly factored into this line and we'll take advantage. 10* MANCHESTER UNITED +100 |
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10-16-22 | Mioveni v. Chindia Targoviste +111 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 111 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play Chindia Targoviste Money Line +110 vs CS Mioveni @ 7 AM ET - These two clubs are at the bottom of the table but there is a big difference in the current level of play we are seeing from each club. CS Mioveni is winless in last 4 matches and allowing 2 goals per match during this streak. Chindia Targoviste is a perfect 2-0 in the month of October and building momentum and they have only conceded a total of 2 goals last 3 matches! The hosts also have revenge from a loss at CS Mioveni the last time these clubs met in March of this year. 10* Chindia Targoviste +110 |
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10-15-22 | Lightning v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 6 or 6.5 in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:05 ET - I have plenty of respect for veteran Brian Elliott but he would be the first to admit he is no Andrei Vasilevskiy. That said, the Lightning are in the 2nd game of a B2B and that means Elliott likely to get the start. Tampa Bay rolled 5-2 last night and there were 5 goals scored in the first period of that win at Columbus. The Bolts bounced back, as expected, after a 3-1 loss to the Rangers on opening night in a goaltenders duel. I expect anything but a duel here as Tristan Jarry likely to be between the pipes for the Penguins. He'll face a barrage of shots from the ultra talented high-end scoring talent the Lightning have. At the same time though, Pittsburgh has plenty of confidence here as they love playing on home ice and are off a 6-2 road win at Arizona. As you can, both clubs off high-scoring wins and plus the Penguins, just like the Lightning, still have plenty of scorers as well! There is still some 6 out there at time of this posting but even if you end up with 6.5 at plus money that is certainly a nice option as well. I feel strongly both clubs will reach the 3-goal mark in this one and, of course, that means it can't finish with anything less than 7 goals - a 4-3 final - if each club reaches that mark. Look for a very entertaining game here! 10* OVER 6 or 6.5 in Pittsburgh |
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10-15-22 | Toronto v. Edmonton Elks OVER 50.5 | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Edmonton Elks vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - Decent weather in this one in Edmonton with light winds and cool, but not cold, temperatures. That means both offenses are fully functional for this one. I feel certain the Elks, still winless at home this season, are going to do everything they can to win this game. However, that will mean reliance on offense and QB Taylor Cornelius had been playing better for Edmonton before a tough game against the league-best Blue Bombers last week. That said, Cornelius and Company should bounce back big here at home but the issue will be stopping the Argonauts. That is an issue the Elks just can't seem to solve. They are allowing an average of 34 points per game on the season! Toronto is favored by 5 in this game. Assuming the line is right then that would put this game finishing in a range of 34-29 Argos! That would total 63 and we are dealing with a total a dozen points below that. I love the value here as a game finishing in that range would not surprise me in the least. 10* OVER 50.5 in Edmonton |
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10-15-22 | Arkansas State v. Southern Miss OVER 53 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 53 or 53.5 in Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7 ET - I fully understand the line drop here on this total because Southern Mississippi plays slow on offense. However, no matter how slow they play they are still likely to score at will against one of the worst defenses in the nation. Indeed, Arkansas State known for giving up a ton of points. The one think the Red Wolves can do though is keep things interesting in games with their offense. I know Southern Miss has been involved in a lot of lower-scoring games of late but those were against different teams with much better defenses and a much different style of play than how Arkansas State plays. So don't be surprised, especially with great weather for this one, if we see it get well into the 60s. Note that the Red Wolves are playing for a 7th straight week and all 6 of their games have totaled at least 55 points! Other than the Ohio State game, Arkansas State is scoring an average of 36 points per game. Again, some of their stats are ugly but they will have to be quick on offense here to avoid sack problems and I expect some quick passes to result in some big plays as Southern Miss will be trying to bring the house on defense at times with blitzes. On the other side of this note that the Red Wolves have allowed 38 points per game last 5 games. The Golden Eagles were turnover prone at Troy last week and did struggle against an ACC team (of course!) when they faced Miami earlier this season. But in all their other games this season they scored at least 27 and now they take on a very bad defense and the Eagles are at home for this one. I look for this to be a game that they pour it on in terms of scoring. We'll see a ton of points here and I am taking advantage of the downward line move. 10* OVER 53 or 53.5 in Southern Mississippi |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State +4 v. TCU | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +4 @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on TCU in this revenge spot here. Revenge is over-played for sure in sports! It is a factor for sure but it is often over-valued. The result is you often can get value on the other side by playing against the revenging team. This is one of those cases. You don't think Oklahoma State is motivated too? Remember both these teams come in undefeated. The Cowboys want to stay that way just as bad as the Horned Frogs do. Also, the last 6 times that OSU has been in a game where both they and their opponent were ranked the Cowboys have won 5 of the 6 games and, keep in mind, we're getting 4 points to work with here too! I love the line value in this one because both defenses, deservedly, are much maligned BUT the Cowboys lead the Big 12 with 3.2 sacks per game. Also, Oklahoma State is leading the NATION (FBS) in tackles for a loss with 10.2 per game. So look for both teams to certainly enjoy some success on offense in this one but look for OSU to be the team making the key defensive plays that will be the difference in this game. Last, but certainly not least, note that Spencer Sanders rates the QB edge over Max Duggan in this game. I know both have strong career numbers and Duggan is also having a strong season again but how did he lose the starting job to Chandler Morris coming into this season. The coach saw something there, right? The only reason Duggan is back in there is Morris got hurt. Now I am most definitely NOT saying Duggan is not a good QB, I am just saying that there is a reason all that transpired and now, in the biggest of games, who would you rather be counting on? Sanders or Duggan? To me we have big edges in this game. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +4 |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies +113 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 113 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:07 ET - Action on pitchers. No one wants to believe in these Phillies. Not even the betting markets. This line opened with Philadelphia as a slight favorite and I feel strongly the odds makers had it right. However, the markets have turned this one around and now the Braves are as high as a -125 favorite here. First off, regardless of the pitching match-up, I like the Phillies here. They have been hotter at home than the Braves have been on the road. Also, they have unquestionably the better and stronger lineup than Atlanta and proved that again yesterday. Atlanta misses Freddie Freeman and of course Ronald Acuna is not the same guy he was before. He just has not been right. So that is two big bats that were key to past Braves success. Phillies at home in front of a raucous crowd, I don't see how you fade that. I am assuming it is the anti-Syndergaard sentiment and I get that. He is unlikely to dominate here. But he has had some solid outings for Philly and one thing helping him in that regard here in terms of odds of being solid is that he is at home and also that he has pitched only 1 inning against Atlanta the last 3 seasons combined! That means the Braves do not have much familiarity with him. This is completely the opposite of the situation with Charlie Morton. He has started FIVE times against the Phillies this season alone and he has been hit hard in 4 of the 5 outings including all 3 in Philly. Look for the Phils to punch their ticket to the NLCS Saturday! 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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10-15-22 | Petrolul 52 v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 2 ET - Taking a shot with the plus money that this one will get to 3 goals. If this total drops to a 2 then grab that but, if not, look for the over 2.5 at plus money in this one. Both clubs are off 1-0 losses last week but Universitatea Craiova saw each of their 4 matches before that total at least 2 goals and those averaged 3.5 goals! Universitatea Craiova has scored at least 1 goal in each of last 5 matches on their home pitch and has scored an average of 1.8 goals in those 5 matches as a host! Petrolul Ploiesti has been outscored by a combined 3 to 0 in their last two matches so they are hungry to get something going again in the offensive zone. I fully expect that here as each of their 4 matches prior to this 2-match scoreless drought had seen both Petrolul Ploiesti and their opponent each score in all 4 matches! Those 4 averaged 3.8 goals per match as well. Look for this one to get to at least 3 goals in an entertaining affair given the way matches have been going in this venue for the host. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Universitatea Craiova |
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10-15-22 | Everton v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -130 in Tottenham vs Everton @ 12:30 ET - Everton has played 4 matches this season on the road. In all 4 of those matches both Everton and their opponent scored at least once. If that streak holds true here that gets this one to 1-1 so would we see a 3rd goal? I would think so! Tottenham is a perfect 4-0 at home this season. I don't see the Hotspur "settling" for a draw here so if this match gets to 1-1 don't be surprised if they push hard for that deciding goal even at the risk of some exposure on the counter-attack the other way. Tottenham is scoring an average of 3.3 goals per match on their home pitch while conceding an average of 1 goal there. 3 of the last 4 matches between these clubs across all competitions have totaled at least 4 goals and actually averaged 6 goals! Everton is getting some key attacking talent back for this week's match as well. Tottenham is off a victory in UEFA Champions League action on Wednesday and carries momentum into this home match where they continue to be so strong. Everton puts up a fight but the Hotspur answer them goal for goal in what shapes up to be an entertaining high-scoring battle the way I see it. 10* OVER 2.5 -130 in Tottenham |
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10-14-22 | Hamilton +7.5 v. Calgary | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +7.5 @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9:30 ET - Just too many points here. Yes, this game holds importance for the Stampeders too but the Tiger-Cats are fighting for their playoff lives. They are chasing Saskatchewan who is idle this week and Hamilton can tie them up in the standings with a win here. The Roughriders also have the tougher end to their season with their final 2 games in comparison with the Ti-Cats. Now, I am not saying that means Hamilton wins this game outright but I am saying they are going hard for it and they are healthier than they have been in quite some time. I look for them to give Calgary all they can handle here and this game will end up being decided by just a one-score margin in my opinion. Yes the Stamps are off a bye week that was preceded by a 29-2 win over Toronto but that final score in the victory over the Argonauts did not correlate to the boxscore so don't let the final score fool you. We are getting line value here because of that final score and this one will go down to the wire in my opinion so huge value with the points. QB Dane Evans off a bad game for the Tiger-Cats but yet they still got the comeback win over the Riders last week so that says a lot too. Evans had been playing better so I look for a big bounce back here. 10* HAMILTON +7.5 |
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10-14-22 | Rangers v. Jets -120 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line -120 vs New York Rangers @ 8:05 ET - I am big on the New York Rangers this season and would not be surprised if they end up representing the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals in June. However, this is a tough spot for them and the straw that stirs the drink is highly unlikely to be involved in this match-up. This is a back to back and Igor Shesterkin is now one of the top two goalies in the league along with Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Lightning. He beat Vasilevskiy and the Bolts to open up the season in New York. Then last night he was fantastic again against the Wild in Minnesota. However, he should not be between the pipes tonight. Look for Jaroslav Halak to get the start for New York. He is 37 years old and off a down season in Vancouver. I really like the edge in goal that the Jets should have considering Connor Hellebuyck should get the start. His GAA looks bad from last season and it was a down year for him. However, he faced a barrage of shots and his save percentage did not drop off that much. He just faced too many shots. Hellebuyck is still one of the best goalies in the top league that represents one of the best games in the world, hockey! Indeed he was one of the best in the NHL in my book and he will get the better of the Rangers and Halak as the Jets catch them in a back to back. Under new head coach Rick Bowness, look for the Jets to be much better defensively and play a different style which will also help Hellebuyck be at his best again. Remember how the Stars played? The Jets will start to emulate that under Bowness and I still like some of the solid scoring talent this Winnipeg has as well. Given the situation, this is the perfect spot to back a Jets teams fired up for a home opener under a new coach in a building filled with enthusiasm. You saw how Flyers responded with Tortorella in Philly last night? Look for a similar response for the Jets under Bowness here in Manitoba. They are catching the Rangers at the right time to get the big win. 10* WINNIPEG -120 |
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10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU OVER 57 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 57 in SMU Mustangs vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Navy got their triple option attack going in last week's big win over Tulsa. They will carry momentum right into this game as a result and I don't see the Mustangs stopping them. SMU is allowing 39 points per game their last 3 games and they don't see the triple-option attack very often and with last week's game against UCF moved to a Wednesday they did not have much extra time to prepare for this week's Friday game. What Southern Methodist does have going for them though is a potent offense that can destroy a weak Navy defense here. SMU plays fast and will keep the Midshipmen defense guessing all game long with quick strikes and all kinds of different play-calls in their potent playbook. Yes they have a horrible 2nd half against the Knights last week but, prior to that, SMU was averaging 31 points per game. Navy has faced only one team with an attack similar to the Mustangs and that was Memphis and the Midshipmen gave up 37 points to the Tigers in that one. Every Mustangs game this season has totaled at least 58 points and this one will too with very nice weather in Dallas expected as well! 10* OVER 57 in SMU |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:37 ET - Action on pitchers because Braves not even 100% sure who they are going with as a starter here. Perhaps Strider as more of an opener here or Morton as more of a traditional starter here. Either way I like the Phillies here to bounce back at home off that Game 2 shutout loss. The Phillies are 22-9 last 31 home games and this will be their first home game in almost 3 weeks! The fact Philadelphia still was getting the job done on the road so far in this post-season says a lot as they had won 3 straight away from home. Now the Phillies should have Aaron Nola on the mound. Again I like Philly at home here no matter who pitches but now will touch on Nola in this spot. Throughout this career Nola has had fantastic success in home starts for Philly. Also, his repertoire of pitches was looking phenomenal down the stretch run and he can be so tough when he is "on" as he so often is when he is at home. Nola has a record of 39-17 in home outings the last 6 seasons combined! The Braves are 6-9 last 15 road games. That is a 40% win rate while the Phillies winning 71% of their home games over the past few months! 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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10-14-22 | Brighton & Hove Albion +136 v. Brentford | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
EPL Friday 10* Top Play Brighton & Hove Money Line +135 @ Brentford @ 3 ET - I know Brentford is off an embarrassing 5-1 road loss and now will want to respond on their home pitch. However, the Bees just have not been playing well at all overall. They have a leaky defense and have now allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 7 matches in league competitions. Also, other than a recent 5-2 win over Leeds, Brentford has scored only 3 goals in their other 5 matches dating back to late August. That is an average of 0.6 goals per match! Against a Brighton club that is often stingy on defense, I like our chances for a road victory here. Brighton comes in off a loss but it was a 1-0 defeat against a tough Tottenham club. Prior to that Brighton delivered a 3-3 draw against a strong Liverpool club. The point is that Brighton has been very competitive under their new manager (Graham Potter left for Chelsea) and yet they still seek first win in a 3rd try. This club will be determined to pick that up here as they now take on a lesser foe in this one. Also, there is no lookahead here as only a newly promoted club, Nottingham Forest, is up next for Brighton. So I expect full focus from the road club here and they get the much-desired full 3 points in the table in this one. Their defense full capable of frustrating the Bees while Brentford's tendency for weakness at the backline will once again do them in by the time this one goes final. 10* BRIGHTON +135 |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders -105 v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders Pick -105 @ Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - When I see a 1-4 team that has lost 4 straight games as a pick'em on the road against a 2-3 team I will be grabbing that road team nearly 100% of the time. The line looks funny, right? This line is telling you that Commanders would be favored by 3 on a neutral field but how can that be when they keep losing every week plus the Bears have the better record? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you! I like to look at scoring stats compared to yardage stats and Washington shows the better true defense even though Chicago shows the better scoring defense. Also, in terms of offensive production, though the scoring is about the same, the yardage stats show the Commanders have a better offense than the Bears. In terms of pass protection and pass rushing based on sacks, Washington also holds the edges over Chicago in both categories. Turnovers have been an issue for the Commanders but they do have the much better passing offense in this match-up and that will lead the way to the road win here over the Bears. 10* WASHINGTON Pick -105 |
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10-13-22 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Thursday NHL 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals @ 7:35 ET - This should be a high-scoring game in the 2nd game of a B2B for each club. We saw a lot of goals in last night's NHL action across the board and I am expecting more of the same in this one. Right now the Capitals are not the same club without enforcer Tom Wilson and he remains out. They allowed 5 goals in the loss to Boston last night. Now it will be either Darcy Kuemper again tonight in the 2nd game of a B2B or Charlie Lindren gets his shot in goal. Note Lindgren does not have much NHL experience and though he had good numbers in limited action last season, he had more combined action in the 3 seasons coming in and those stats were not good. Also, whoever is in goal for Washington here will be facing an angry Maple Leafs club that lost 4-3 at Montreal last night courtesy of allowing a late goal. Look for Toronto to be relentless in the offensive zone tonight after falling short against the Canadiens last night. The Toronto goalie, since Matt Murray played last night, could be Ilya Samsonov in this one. He is a former Capital and will be motivated facing his former team but he did not have great stats last season and the added pressure of facing his former team and in a home opener for Toronto could result in a bit of a tough game for him here. You know the Caps will be extra hungry tonight after scoring just 2 goals last night. Both teams off losses and pushing hard in the 2nd game of a back to back will mean some relentless attacking in the offensive zone. 10* OVER 6.5 in Toronto |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:37 ET - Action on pitchers. First off, the Mariners 7 of last 8 games have totaled 7 or more runs. In fact, those 8 games have averaged 12 runs per game. This is excellent value with the low total here. The Astros have won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those games. This is why I really don't care what pitchers do go but the expected match-up is Castillo versus Valdez. Note that Castillo is off another season in which he is worse on the road that at home. This is nothing new with him and I expect that trend to continue here. As for Valdez, he has great full season numbers but he did allow 3 earned runs both of the times he faced the Mariners. Also, he is coming off a September in which he was hit hard in 3 of the 5 starts including 2 in which he really got rocked. 10* OVER 6.5 in Houston |
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10-12-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres +1.5 -130 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Of course the Dodgers are a great team and Kershaw is a fantastic pitcher. However, Darvish is a solid pitcher in his own right and he is off the great start versus the Mets which is part of the reason San Diego advanced to this NLDS. Darvish also had some solid outings versus the Dodgers this season and I expect another solid outing from him here. I like the Padres no matter the starting pitchers here as I am looking for a big bounce back here. In last night's loss San Diego did have more hits than Los Angeles but the difference in the 5-3 loss was LA went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position while San Diego went 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. Dodgers actually were on a 5-6 run last 11 home games prior to last night's win. In fact, in last dozen home games prior to last night's win only 5 of the 12 games were Dodgers wins by 2 or more runs. Like the value of the +1.5 with San Diego in this one. Prior to an ugly regular season loss in their season finale, the Padres were on an 11-6 run in which only 2 of the 6 losses were by more than a single run. That means that at +1.5 runs San Diego was 15-2 in those 17 games. This is going to be another tight game tonight and the +1.5 runs could prove invaluable in this one but an outright upset for the road team also would not surprise me in the least here. 10* SAN DIEGO +1.5 |
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10-12-22 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - I just can not trust either goalie in this match-up. It doesn't even matter who starts in goal for either club as I just do not like the goalie options of either club at this point until they prove me wrong. But the expected goalie match-up is Matt Murray for the Leafs and Jake Allen for the Habs. Note that both had very poor records last season and high GAA. Also, everyone is saying Montreal was a better club under Martin St Louis and they were when he first took over in mid-season but really they faltered down the stretch. This Canadiens team allows too many shots on goal and too many quality scoring chances and that hurt them again the last few weeks of the season as well when they went into another rough slump and gave up too many goals. I do expect them to certainly put up a fight here on home ice and play well but they will have to rely on scoring here to hang around in this game. They are not going to shut down a highly potent Maple Leafs attack. Also, Toronto will be very aggressive in this game as another early playoff ouster last spring disappointed them. The Leafs can't wait to get the new season going and I don't think we'll see any quit in how aggressive this team will be in terms of being on the attack. Also, John Tavares missed training camp and was originally a question mark for opening night with oblique injury but he is ready to go now and is expected to be on the top line for the ultra-potent Leafs! 10* OVER 6.5 in Montreal |
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10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers -110 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play New York Rangers Money Line -110 vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:35 ET - The Rangers seek revenge from last season's playoff ouster at the hands of the Bolts. Make not mistake about it the Lightning are still one of the top teams in the NHL and have a superb goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes. However, the Rangers also have an incredible goalie in Igor Shesterkin and they have the home ice edge here. New York also did great in picking up Kevin Fiala in the off-season. For the Lightning, the losses of McDonagh and Palat in the off-season as well as a top assistant coach could hurt this club a bit. That said, I love the hungry home team to get the job done in this one and get some playoff revenge in the process. Lightning have had a great run but their club roster is finally starting to regress a bit and this Rangers team is the one building well and getting ready to peak in my opinion. I have New York as having a solid chance at winning the cup this season and I like this spot for them to jump start their season. 10* NEW YORK RANGERS -110 |
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10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:37 ET - I know this is playoff baseball but I like this over regardless of the starting pitchers. In road games Cleveland has won 11 of last 12 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those dozen games! The Yankees are one of the best home teams in baseball and have averaged 5 runs per game at home this season. New York won 9 of last 11 home games this season and scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 10 games that went full 9 innings (one was rain-shortened to 6 innings). So both teams should hit just fine here on a mild evening in the Bronx and the ball should carry well. That is why I like this over regardless of starting pitchers but I will mention that Cole was only 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA in the second half of the season. Also, Quantrill was great at home but he was only 6-5 in road games and opponents hit .282 against him away from home this season. Also, he got hit a .300 clip in September and this was 3rd time in 4 months that opponents hit at least .282 against him. He is not a big strikeout pitcher and that bodes well for a Yankees club that was better this season in terms of striking out but still strike out a little bit too frequently. That should not be an issue here and, by the way, the Guardians struck out the least of any team in the league this season. Put the ball in play and good things can happen. This total opened up as high as a 7.5 and I am now even seeing some 6.5 start to pop up on this one. 10* OVER 7 in New York Yankees |
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10-11-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -130 @ Atlanta Braves @ 1:07 ET - Phillies have a great shot at stealing Game 1 of this series but, even if they do not, a 1-run loss would be the most likely type of defeat they suffer. Suarez was great against the Braves late in the season. In his last 3 starts against them he allowed a total of only 1 earned run. As for Fried, in his last 3 starts against the Phillies this season he allowed a total of 6 earned runs. The Atlanta lefty allowed 9 hits in 6 innings in one of those starts and allowed 2 homers in another one of the starts versus Philadelphia. Regardless of the starting pitching match-up here, I like the fact the Phillies are rolling with confidence right now after their big comeback win in Game 1 of the Cardinals series and then getting a shutout win in Game 2 at St Louis. Could the time off for Braves hurt them here? They have, of course, not played a game in nearly a week. Of Atlanta's last 15 games of the regular season only 6 (40%) were wins by 2 or more runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -130 |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 51.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - There is a reason this total is creeping higher even though there has been a plethora of unders in primetime football this season. This one is going over the total and will be a shootout. When a total is moving up but given all the unders we have had this season you know something is going on here. Note that the Raiders have allowed at least 23 points in all 4 games this season and now are facing one of the top offensive units in the league in the form of the Chiefs. The Raiders have scored an average of 26 points last 3 games and will be good to go here but they are a 7 point dog here for a reason. 34-27 sounds about right and that put this total closer to 61 than the 51 posted in some spots as of early Monday morning. Kansas City has had one low-scoring game at Indianapolis but has averaged scoring 37 points per game in their other 3 games! The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in all 4 games this season and this match-up features two solid offenses but a pair of weak pass defenses. Both teams giving up a pile of yardage through the air and the weather is going to be ideal in Kansas City for this one to feature an all-out aerial assault! The Chiefs put up 48 points on the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium last season and will have a another huge game here. But the Las Vegas offense starting to look better under head coach Josh McDaniels and don't be surprised if they match the Chiefs score for score here. 10* OVER 51.5 in Kansas City |
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10-10-22 | Aston Villa +115 v. Nottingham Forest | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
English Premier League Monday 10* Top Play Aston Villa Money Line +115 @ Nottingham Forest @ 3 ET - With Aston Villa on the road for this one we have line value. I know they have struggled to win matches but their defensive style is going to frustrate Nottingham Forest here. Additionally, these hosts have not been able to stop anyone this season. So you have visitors likely to deliver a clean sheet here and you have hosts giving up a pile of goals on the campaign. I like our chances here. Aston Villa is unbeaten in 3 straight matches but off another draw and only one of the 3 matches was a victory. In other words, this club is very hungry for a full 3 points in the table and manager Steven Gerrard knows this is a winnable match and one his club must have as he has been on the hot seat and knows the run of positive results must continue. Keep in mind, Nottingham Forest is newly promoted and they made a bunch of off-season signings but the plan has back-fired. The club has not jelled and they just can not seem to stop the opposition. The hosts are allowing 2.6 goals per match this season for one of the worst marks in the league. Conversely, the visitors are allowing just 1.3 goals per match this season which is one of the best marks in the league. The last 4 meetings between these clubs took place in English League Championship action. Aston Villa took 3 of the 4 and the one they did not was a draw. No draw here. Look for a solid win as the visitors frustrate the hosts with a stifling defensive effort. Nottingham Forest has allowed 4 goals per match last 4 matches! Aston Villa, on the other hand, has allowed a total of only 4 goals last 5 matches and that included facing the two best clubs in the league - Manchester City and Arsenal! Lot of road club line value here. 10* ASTON VILLA +115 |
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10-10-22 | CFR Cluj v. UTA Arad OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals +105 in UTA vs CFR Cluj @ 1:30 ET - This total is 2 which is a solid insurance value as so many matches in this league do land on 2 goals. However, the other value here is that this over is available at plus money and I am certainly expecting 3 goals here. CFR Cluj is the only club in the league without a draw. If you are expecting each club to score here, and below I explain why we should expect that, then the odds certainly favor at least a 2-1 final. CFR Cluj has shown to push hard this season for the full 3 points in the table and to not settle for draws. Taking a look at UTA, the club from Arad has seen 10 of their 12 matches - and 6 straight - total at least 2 goals. UTA has scored at least once in all 5 home matches this season and is scoring an average of 1.6 goals per match on the season. Recent history shows that matches between these clubs have trended under but you can see why this one absolutely has high likelihood of playing out much different. UTA should score well at home here and CFR Cluj is again one of the top teams in the league this season. The visitors have scored in all but ONE of their matches this season and in the other 9 matches in which they were not shutout they have averaged 1.9 goals scored per match! Don't be surprised if EACH club scores TWICE in this one given all of the above but I am certainly confident in predicting a 2-1 final here given all of the above! 10* OVER 2 goals +105 in UTA |
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10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal OVER 47 | Top | 24-18 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 47 or 47.5 in Montreal Alouettes vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 1 ET - First off both teams get their top running backs for this game. Establishing the run will open up the passing game. Secondly, there have been a lot of points when these teams have met. Thirdly, Ottawa just fired their head coach after the loss to BC. The Redblacks will be highly motivated here but the Alouettes also can clinch a home playoff game by getting a victory here. So this rivalry game will have even more energy than usual on this Thanksgiving Monday in Canada. The Redblacks just threw for a pile of yards last week. The passing attack for the Als has thrived against Ottawa's defense this season. It will be cool in Montreal today for this one but not cold. Temperatures right around 50 degrees Fahrenheit and light winds. Nice conditions for both offenses to open things up. With this total also dropping down after opening up near 50, I feel we have excellent line value here. 10* OVER 47 or 47.5 in Montreal |
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10-09-22 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 47.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The Bengals got their confidence back with a big win over the Dolphins last week. It was big for QB Joe Burrow to have a solid game. I know you see the final score with Miami scoring just 12 points and you think the Bengals defense played well but they did allow nearly 400 yards of offense but two interceptions helped them for sure. Now they face a Ravens offense with the dynamic Lamar Jackson at QB and he is ready to make up for the INT that ended their game last week. The Bengals, prior to facing Miami, faced a horrible Steelers offense, annually bad Jets team, and a Cowboys team with Cooper Rush at QB because of the Prescott injury. Now the Bengals face a revenge-minded Baltimore team that was averaging 33 points per game before running into a Bills team that is arguably the best team in the NFL and certainly has a stellar defense. Ravens lost both games to Bengals last season and they want some payback here at home. They may indeed get it but they will have to lean on their offense to do so. The Ravens defense is among the worst in the NFL this season and remember this fade started last season when they ended the season on a bad losing streak. This Baltimore defense just a shell of what it was in the past. Ravens allowing 425 yards per game this season. That puts them in the same company with winless Texans and the Seahawks and Lions who both have been horrific defensively this season. In other words, the primetime streak of unders is coming to an end tonight. This game will get into 60s is my forecast but at least 50s. Neither team will be able to stop the other on an evening of beautiful fall weather in Baltimore too. Burrow versus Jackson and the scoreboard going to be lit up all night long. 10* OVER 47.5 in Baltimore |
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10-09-22 | Padres v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in New York Mets vs San Diego Padres @ 7:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Okay so I know this is an elimination game and those tend to play out to be tighter low-scoring games. However, this is unique in this wild card round because is not like in a regular series where you may have aces going in the elimination game. These two teams already used their best pitchers Friday and Saturday. Now on Sunday the scheduled pitching match-up is Musgrove versus Bassitt. Certainly both pitchers capable of a solid start but also each capable of getting roughed up a bit on the regular. Simply put these are not aces. Consider that plus each of the first two games of this series got to at least 8 runs. Consider also that 5 homers were hit Friday and 3 homers hit Saturday. All these factors have me lining up on the over here regardless of the starting pitching match-up. Take action on the pitchers and look for at least 7 runs here. 10* OVER 6.5 in New York Mets |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams -5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - This is a contrarian play so this write-up will be rather short. Everyone will want the Cowboys here as they have 3 straight and plus they catch the Rams on a short week off Monday Night Football at San Francisco. Also, everyone has watched LA struggle versus Buffalo and the 49ers in primetime games. So again, the favoritism has been toward Dallas here which is why the line has moved their way. Let us not forget however, the Rams did not even leave the state of California for the Monday Night Game. They also are angry off that loss. Dallas is off B2B divisional wins and has huge divisional game against currently undefeated Eagles in Philly on deck. The Cowboys also traveling west for this one which often does not go well for them. I know Stafford is having a rough start to the season and the offensive line struggled badly against the Niners last week. But I am here to tell you that Los Angeles is going to dig deep for this game and Prescott is still not coming back for this game. It is still Cooper Rush at QB. No offense to Rush but I don't think the Bengals are very good this season and the Commanders certainly are not and the Giants are a team that has not won more than 6 games in about 6 years. So he is going to get tested by an angry Rams defense in this one. I look for LA to really come together strong for this one and get a convincing win. The numbers and trends and stats will not support that. But the NFL is about much more than what people perceive from those things. Rams step up big here and still are well-coached and they do not want to drop below .500 on the season. Look for them to pull away as this game goes on. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -5 |
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10-09-22 | Steaua Bucharesti v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -55 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs FCSB @ 2:30 ET - Petrolul Ploiesti is off a 1-0 loss at CFR Cluj but, prior to this, their last 4 matches all totaled 3 or more goals! Not only did those average 4 goals per match, the key is that Petrolul Ploiesti both scored and conceded in all 4 of the matches. We should see plenty of scoring in this one too because FCSB is having a disappointing campaign and so hungry for wins and will bring a strong effort here on the road. But also Petrolul Ploiesti known for being tougher at home and will be tough on their home pitch in this one so they will not be shut down here. Petrolul Ploiesti has scored at least one goal in 4 of last 5 matches on their home pitch. FCSB last 3 matches across all competitions have all totaled at least 3 goals and have averaged 4.3 goals apiece. Going further back, 9 of last 11 matches across all competitions for FCSB have totaled at least 3 goals. FCSB has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight Romania Liga 1 competitions and averaged scoring 1.6 goals during this stretch. The average goals scored in those 8 matches was 3.4 goals. Given all of the above you can see why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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10-09-22 | Manchester United +107 v. Everton | Top | 2-1 | Win | 107 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play Manchester United Money Line +100 @ Everton @ 2 ET - Everton has been better this season without a doubt. However, they still struggle to score goals and their last two victories were against clubs that are now far down in the table. Now Everton faces a real challenge with Manchester United. The visitors started this season disastrously but have since responded and were indeed looking very strong until they ran into juggernaut rivals Manchester City and got hammered 6-3. Look for that to provide plenty of motivation for Manchester United to get right back on track here and we have added value with this line because Everton is a little over-rated right now. Everton has scored only 2 goals total in 4 matches at home this season! Manchester United is AVERAGING 2 goals per match last 5 matches and has scored 3 goals in each of last two matches even though those were against Arsenal and Manchester City. Those are the top two clubs in the league so far this season. I just don't see the hosts being able to keep up in this one and the visitors pull away for convincing win. 10* MANCHESTER UNITED money line +100 |
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10-09-22 | Liverpool v. Arsenal OVER 3 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Arsenal vs Liverpool @ 11:30 AM ET - We should see plenty of goals here. Liverpool is out to prove they can get back in the race for top spot in the league after a disappointing start to the campaign. Arsenal, other than perhaps Manchester City, has been the most impressive club in the league so far this season. That said, Liverpool will push here on the road but Arsenal will surely answer on their home pitch. There is so much firepower and attacking prowess for each club that I am expecting a 2-2 draw here. Should be a thrilling encounter and I know each club capable of defending well too but I don't see either team "sitting back" much in this one. Liverpool and Arsenal each are averaging scoring about 2.5 goals per match and each conceding 1 goal per match. Liverpool has not scored so well on the road this season but I believe Arsenal will force them too here! The hosts are scoring an average of 3 goals per match on their home pitch and their attacking style will end up forcing the tempo in this one after they breach the Reds defense a few times. Look for a strong attack from the Gunners and Liverpool will have to respond. 10* OVER 3 in Arsenal |
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10-08-22 | Phillies -111 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:37 ET - Action on pitchers. This play is all about the momentum as well as the mental state of each club after Phillies came back huge in the top of the 9th for 6 runs in yesterday's win! Winning game 1 in a best of 3 is huge and Philadelphia will draw off the high emotion and I expect them to hit well at the plate today. The expected pitching match-up is Nola and Mikolas so it is a good one. But look for the key to be the above and now I will briefly touch on the expected pitching match-up as the Phillies look to close this one out with their long-time ace on the mound. Nola has a 3.00 ERA in road games this season, had a 2.93 ERA in September and had a no-hitter going with two outs in 7th inning in his most recent start. He is in top form to say the least. The Cardinals Mikolas is known for being solid at home but he had a 4.39 ERA in the 2nd half of the season and that was two runs higher than his ERA in the first half of the season. Look for Phillies to close this out today because, as I mentioned yesterday, they also have the deeper lineup in this match-up. The only 2 runs the Cardinals got yesterday were off a reliever who gave up his first runs since August! Yes, this Phillies bullpen has some solid arms too! 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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10-08-22 | Iowa +4 v. Illinois | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes +4 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET - Love this spot for an underdog upset but happy to grab the points here too. Illinois just won their Game of the Year. The reason I say that is their head coach, Brett Bielema used to coach the Badgers. The Illini just went to Madison last week and beat Wisconsin convincingly on their home turf. Now watch this over-rated Illini bunch come out flat as a pancake for this game. First off, give credit for the win over Wiscy but Badgers nowhere near the team they use to be. Then look at who else this Illinois team has played this season. Wyoming is bad this season, Virginia is bad this season, the Indiana team that the Illini lost to just lost B2B games to Cincy and Nebraska by a combined score of 80 to 45. The other win Illinois has was over an FCS school. Now, I do know that Iowa is off a tough physical battle with Michigan last week. But I also know the Hawkeyes have a bye week on deck and they will go all out here coming off a loss. There is no quit in this physical Iowa team and they will be inspired to go hard for the win in conference action. They did throw for over 200 yards against the Wolverines in a game in which the stats were nearly equal. That is impressive as Michigan is one of the top teams in the country. Look for the Hawkeyes to be able to run and pass better than you would expect against this over-rated Illini defense that could come out flat here too. Iowa hungry off a loss and lets not forget the allowed an average of only 6 points per game first 4 games! That did include a 3 point loss to a solid Iowa State team. The Hawkeyes have only lost once in last 14 meetings with Illini and that includes 8-0 SU last 8. I fully expect that streak to reach 9 here but am happy to take the 4 points as added insurance too. 10* IOWA +4 |
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10-08-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg OVER 50.5 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL 10* OVER 50.5 in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Elks @ 7 ET - Winnipeg has the best record in the league but they only have 3 regular season games left (including this one) and they still have not locked up the division just yet let alone the best league record. So the point is that the Blue Bombers still have plenty of motivation here. They are favored by two touchdowns for a reason here. They will not stop scoring in this one. The Bombers can do some damage here against a bad Elks defense. Additionally, Edmonton will score some points here. I know they just lost leading WR Kenny Lawler to season-ending surgery. However, Dillion Mitchell is off a big game and fully capable of big games. Also, Derel Walker off a quiet game but he has been solid this season too. That means QB Taylor Cornelius still has plenty of talent to work with and he had been playing well prior to throwing 2 picks last week. The Elks will move the ball some in this game and score decently but Winnipeg will be scoring like a machine. I am looking for at least a 35-21 game and that gets past the current total sitting in the 50 range and again I am looking for mid-50s at the very least here. Elks allowing 33 points per game this season but they are 4-4 on the road this season so they actually have been better away from home. They are winless at home this season but playing .500 ball on the road. Edmonton, prior to last week's low-scoring loss, had averaged 24 points per game last 6 games. But again Elks can't stop Blue Bombers and there you have it. 38-24 sounds about right here on second though and that would be double digit cover on this total. 10* OVER 50.5 in Winnipeg |
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10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 7 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:07 ET - The Mariners got the shutout win yesterday. The Blue Jays bounce back today. I like this play no matter the starting pitchers but will mention that Ray was not as good in the 2nd half of the season as the first. Also, Ray is not as good on the road as he is at home. Ray wrapped up the season allowing 4 or more earned runs in 3 of last 5 starts. Gausman also struggled a bit recently plus left his last start with a laceration on a finger on this throwing hand. He was already struggling and now this in the back of his mind won't help things either. I know the Mariners have a good bullpen but Blue Jays off a home shutout are going to respond here against Ray and whoever else Seattle ends up throwing at them in this one. As for the Mariners lineup they should hit Gausman had as his struggles continue. Note that Seattle has now won 8 of 10 and scored an average of 5 runs per game. The Jays, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 11 of 18 and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. I totally understand the total being set at 7 here but feel it will prove to be far too low given all of the above. 10* OVER 7 in Toronto |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -3.5 vs North Carolina @ 4 ET - Remember when everyone was so down on Notre Dame earlier this season? You might be asking what that has to do with this play but, quite a lot actually, and I will explain. The Fighting Irish were on an 0-2 ATS run and 1-2 SU run and off a non-covering win versus Cal after an embarrassing loss to Marshall. Their next game was AT this North Carolina team. Even at Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels got embarrassed. The game was 38-20 entering the 4th quarter and, for the game the Irish outgained UNC 576 to 367. Keep in mind the game was 38-14 before UNC gained 230 yards and scored 18 points over the final 20 minutes of the game after it was already out of hand. The point is that the Tar Heels had one test this season and they failed miserably. Now they are on the road and facing a similar foe. This Hurricanes team is angry and off a bye week. Miami should have beat Texas A & M a few weeks ago - we had the Canes there and they dominated everything but the scoreboard. Then, after that demoralizing loss, Miami came out flat and lost to Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago as a big favorite. Then the bye week last week and now you have an angry Hurricanes team that, by the way, is playing their first ACC game of the season. They are the only team in ACC without a conference game yet. They can still, in theory, go undefeated in ACC. Of course I am not saying they will but the point is that this is the ideal perfect fresh start situation for Miami. Similar to Notre Dame, this Hurricanes defense will give the Tar Heels offense some trouble. As for the UNC defense, it is atrocious and will not be able to stop Miami. The Heels just dominated Virginia Tech but the Hokies are a very bad football team this season. Prior to that, UNC had allowed 40 points per game this season! The Hurricanes open up their ACC season with a big win here as the situation, the home field, and the much better defense all add up to a huge win. 10* MIAMI -3.5 |
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10-08-22 | Botosani v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -51 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Rapid vs FC Botosani @ 2:30 ET - Rapid is going to be fired up here. They are back home in Bucuresti after falling short on the road at Chindia Targoviste last week. Rapid will take advantage of an FC Botosani club that has allowed an average of 3 goals per match last 4 matches overall. Also in the last 3 meetings between these clubs Rapid has scored an average of 2 goals per match. If you look at the table for the Romania Liga 1 every club has something in every single column for win, loss, draw other than one exception. That one exception is that Rapid has not had a draw this season. That makes me like this selection even more because I do expect FC Botosani to get on the scoresheet but of course Rapid is a rather big favorite here for a reason. In other words, look for at least a 2-1 final in this one given these factors! FC Bostonai has scored at least 1 goal in 8 of last 11 matches and has scored an average of 1 goal per match through this stretch. They have allowed 20 goals last 12 matches and Rapid is one of the top clubs in the league and will not hesitate to run up the score here. Like the value of the plus money at over 2.5 here. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Rapid |
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10-08-22 | Predators v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 in San Jose Sharks vs Nashville Predators @ 2 ET - This game being played in Czech Republic but Saturday, unlike Friday, the Sharks are the designated home club. Of course there are some extra edges as the home club in hockey games even when you are not on home ice. So San Jose should be a little better Saturday compared to Friday and I expect them to be extra hungry off the 4-1 loss. The shots on goal were about equal in Friday's game and San Jose will be pushing even harder here. The problem for the Sharks is they are struggling to stop the more talented team in this match-up. The Predators are just too much for San Jose but I feel the fact we are expected to now see the #2 goalies in this back-to-back match-up, after the starters Saros and Reimer played yesterday, will also help our cause here. Look for this one to fly over the total. As mentioned yesterday, these games in the Global Series have a history of being higher-scoring. Yesterday's just missed going over but it certainly had its chances for more scoring. Today, and with back-up goalies in there (or starters in the 2nd game of a back to back) I think we might see some soft goals let in too. This one should get to at least 6 and I am expecting a highly entertaining 4-3 type game here. 10* OVER 5.5 in San Jose Sharks |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU OVER 64 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 64 in LSU Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers @ Noon ET - Tennessee has played two games versus tougher teams and they allowed over 1,000 yards combined in those tight wins over Pittsburgh and Florida. I look for the Volunteers defense to struggle here. I know that Jayden Daniels, LSU QB, is coming off a tough game at Auburn. However, he was having a solid season before that and the Vols will struggle again facing a dual-threat QB. The strength of the Volunteers is absolutely their offense and their QB Hendon Hooker should have another massive game here with his arms and his legs. I just do not see many defensive stops here and though the game could start out a little tightly played - it is an SEC battle after all - I do think this one is going to turn into a wild shootout particularly in the 2nd half. Back and forth high-scoring affair likely in this one! Tennessee averaging 48.5 points per game this season. Tigers were averaging 39.3 points per game this season before last week's tough road effort. They bounce back now at home again for this one! 10* OVER 64 in LSU |
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10-08-22 | Southampton v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Manchester City vs Southampton @ 10 AM ET - Manchester City is averaging scoring 5 goals per match when on their home pitch this season. Of course Erling Haaland has proven an incredible goal-scorer for City. Southampton did have 22 shot attempts last week even though they lost. Manchester city was the only other club to have at least that many. In other words, look for plenty of goals here. Note that Southampton is averaging 1 goal per match this season and they do have enough quality in terms of striking ability to net one here. But they will not be able to stop the well-oiled machine that is City right now and this is especially true with this match at Manchester. I am looking for at least a 3-1 match here but would not be surprised to see this one reach 5 goals. 10* OVER 3.5 in Manchester City |
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10-08-22 | Brentford v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Newcastle United vs Brentford @ 10 AM ET - As long-time followers know I tend to like Newcastle and/or their overs when they are on their home pitch. Today is no different. Love this spot for Newcastle United as they are off a huge 4-1 win last week on the road and will build momentum off that. They host a Brentford team that is ready to get rolling again as this team had been playing well but suddenly has struggled to find the back of the net. Look for this match-up to remedy that. The last 5 times these clubs have met at Newcastle, those matches have averaged 4.8 goals apiece. We should get at least 3 goals here. Brentford is off a scoreless draw with Bournemouth but, prior to that, their first 7 matches this season averaged 4 goals apiece. I know Newcastle matches have not trended toward high-scoring this season but this is an ideal situation and last season when the clubs met here there were 6 goals scored in a 3-3 draw. Before the B2B scoreless efforts, Brentford scored in all 7 of their matches this season and had average scoring 2.7 goals per match! They will get at least 1 here but Newcastle is favored for a reason. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final though a 2-2 draw or 3-2 final also would not surprise me in the least. 10* OVER 2.5 in Newcastle |
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10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton -2 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats -2 vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7:30 ET - The Tiger-Cats are off a bye week. That was preceded by a loss at Montreal but they outgained the Alouettes in that game but turned the ball over twice - once on downs and once on a fumble. Prior to that loss they had a big home win over a strong Winnipeg team. That victory brought Hamilton to 4-1 last 5 home games. Conversely, this Roughriders team is on a 4-game losing streak. I know Saskatchewan is trying to make the playoffs but the Ti-Cats still have hope too and the Riders are known for being a bad road team. We have solid line value here with the home team at a short number and I am looking for another strong game from Tiger-Cats QB Dane Evans as he has been in fine form recently. 10* HAMILTON -2 |
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10-07-22 | Nebraska -3 v. Rutgers | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - Rutgers has lost 20 straight Big Ten home games and Nebraska is favored by only 3 points. There is your write-up. All kidding aside the fact is we certainly have history on our side here and I also like the fact that the Scarlet Knights have a big mess at the QB spot. I know they had some good defensive numbers before facing Ohio State last week and most certainly the Cornhuskers are nowhere close to the level of the Buckeyes. However, Rutgers played bad teams in the form of Boston College, Wagner, Temple and also an Iowa team known for its defense not its offense. The point is that the Scarlet Knights defense will be challenged a bit by a pretty solid Nebraska offense here. The other key is that the Huskers defense woke up after the firing of their defensive coordinator and they played very strong against Indiana last week. I know this is a road game on the east coast and it is hard to trust the Cornhuskers on the road but I feel strongly that last week's game against the Hoosiers is a sign of things to come. Also, how can anyone trust a Rutgers team that has lost 20 straight home games in conference action and that has a messed up quarterback situation with injuries, etc? I sure can not! Go Big Red! 10* NEBRASKA -3 |
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10-07-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -128 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays -130 vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. The Mariners wrapped up the season losing 7 of last 10 road games and I feel the Blue Jays home edge will be a factor here. The home team won 6 of 7 games between these teams this season. Toronto wrapped up the season with wins in 8 of last 11 games. The Jays finished the regular season on a 31-16 run. I know the Mariners have a solid bullpen but I really like this Toronto lineup much more than that of Seattle's. Regardless of the starting pitchers I like the Blue Jays but now I will touch on them here. The Jays Alex Manoah is now 25-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a .198 BAA in his young career. This guy is a beast on the mound! As for the Mariners Luis Castillo, he most definitely is a solid veteran. However, he was just 4-5 in road games this season and his day game ERA was more than a full run higher than his night game ERA this season. I don't think the lesser numbers on the road are a fluke either. Last season, Castillo went 2-8 with a 4.87 ERA in road games! In 2020 he was 2-5 with a 4.12 ERA away from home! Keep in mind that it is not just the venue pitch in or that you are away from home. When you are a visiting pitcher you are "waiting around" to start the game. Some guys do well with that. But many, like Castillo, like to be at home and be that first hurler on the mound as, of course, the visitors always bat first! Circling back to the biggest key here, home team with stronger lineup! Lay it! 10* TORONTO -130 |
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10-07-22 | Phillies -102 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 2:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Expected starters are Zack Wheeler and Jose Quintana. The Cardinals went 8-5 against the Nationals and Marlins this season. Against the rest of NL East they went 8-13. This is a quality St Louis team for sure but lets not forget they certainly were helped by beating up on weaker teams in their division like the Cubs, Pirates and Reds! The Phillies are 28-18 against left-handed starters this season. I like this play regardless of the pitchers as this is the only game on the board in which the home team is not a favorite. Trust me, this line is a pick'em for a reason and the Phillies have the bigger bats in this match-up. Note too that Quintana has a 5.40 ERA in post-season appearances and that was 5 years ago when he was with the Cubs. Also, this season he was winless with a 3.74 ERA in his 11 day game starts. Wheeler is back now for Phillies and healthy. This was the 3rd straight season he has an ERA of 2.92 or less for the season! He is a beast and held opponents to a batting average of .221 this season after holding them to just .215 last season. Wheeler went 2-0 against the Cardinals with a 0.00 ERA and just 9 hits allowed in 14 scoreless innings of work! Of course I like the pitching edges here but even if these starters do not go I like this play. Hence, action on the pitchers. Keep in mind the Phillies now have Bryce Harper and Jean Segura back and made the playoffs despite NEITHER one of those guys making the century mark in games played in the regular season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105 |
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10-07-22 | Sharks v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Nashville Predators vs San Jose Sharks @ 2:05 ET in Czech Republic - If you look at the history of the Global Series games since it started in 2017, these overseas games have featured a lot of goals. There have been 8 regular season games that pitted NHL teams against each other and 7 of the 8 games totaled at least 6 goals. I generally don't like puck line plays in the NHL and you can see with the line on this game that the money line is pricey. I just don't like 1 goal games late that then go either way. Is there an empty net goal or not? But when I look at the total on this game, note that neither team is very strong defensively. Both teams, in terms of goals allowed, are a bit leaky on defense at times. But both clubs have some strong scorers and I expect a big push here. Of course there are a lot of European players on each club and even some that are from Czech Republic. That said, there will be a strong push here and a bit of extra aggression for each team. They want to start the season on the right foot. Don't be surprised that we might see some key turnovers of the puck in this one too. Early season game, unfamiliar arena and surroundings, there can be some sloppy play in games like this and that can lead to odd man rushes the other way. Look for a very entertaining game here with plenty of goals. 10* OVER 5.5 in Nashville |
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10-07-22 | CS U Craiova v. Arges OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -142 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -140 in Universitatea Craiova vs FC Arges @ 2 ET - Universitatea Craiova off a 1-1 draw with FC Voluntari in a match that definitely should have reached at least 3 goals. Even though it fell short of that mark it was the 4th straight Universitatea Craiova match that totaled at least 2 goals. Those 4 matches averaged 3.5 goal and I am expecting at least 3 here but like the added value of the fact that just getting to 2 goals would at least be a push here. FC Arges is off a 3-2 loss to FCSB and that was the 2nd straight road match in which FC Arges allowed 3 goals. With the way Universitatea Craiova has been scoring recently - 7 goals in last 4 matches - I like the odds on at least a 2-1 match in this one. Each of the last 3 meetings between these foes have totaled at least 3 goals and have actually average 4 goals! 10* OVER 2 goals -140 in Universitatea Craiova |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos OVER 42 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 or 42 in Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:15 ET - We are already starting to see some 41.5 on this game and I know this is a contrarian play but I love the value here. In the Colts first road game this season they had over 500 yards of offense but turnovers did them in a 20-20 tie at Houston. Now, in their most recent game last week, they were at home against Tennessee and managed only 17 points despite over 300 yards of passing offense. Indianapolis was again done in by turnovers. By the way, they could not run the ball against the Titans so they had to throw. A lot of passing is what you want when you have an over and, by the way, the weather conditions will be perfect in Denver tonight. Additionally, the Broncos are coming home angry off a loss. However, the Raiders did expose some holes in this Denver defense you can put Frank Reich, a smart offensive-minded head coach, will be ready to take advantage here. I know the Colts offensive line has not been good this season but Reich is sharp and Matt Ryan is a wily veteran. This offense will have things designed to get rid of the ball quickly and also to utilize misdirection and other elements to keep the Broncos defense a little off-guard. Also, if Denver brings the house on blitzes they can get beat deep. This Colts team still has plenty of talent to get the ball to downfield. Everyone is looking under in this game and I totally get it based on the results so far this season. But you know what usually happens when the masses are all looking one way on a game. I feel strongly that Denver at home is finally going to have that breakout game on offense that we've been waiting for. When they played at Seattle to open the season they had over 400 yards of offense but just did not have the points to show for it. This is a value spot on a low total as Russell Wilson is going to end up in an aerial show with the other QB veteran, Ryan, in this one and I feel strongly that we will see more fireworks than most are expecting. Remember the Broncos defense faced some struggling offenses to start the season. Then they ran into a talented Raiders offense and struggled last week. The Colts, prior to that gut-wrenching loss to Jacksonville to end last season, were on a run in which their 13 games before that saw them average 30 points scored per game! That is over 13 games. Not a short-term run. Do you really think they have fallen that far from one season to the next? No, their passing yardage has been there but they must cut down on turnovers. I think Reich is going to have a great gameplan here but I also expect a huge game from Wilson and the Broncos at home. Take advantage of the line movement here. 10* OVER 41.5 or 42 in Denver |
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10-05-22 | SMU v. Central Florida OVER 62.5 | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 62.5 in Central Florida Knights vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - I really wanted to play Central Florida here. Gus Malzahn is the head coach of UCF and spent many years at Auburn coaching in the toughest conference in College Football, the SEC. Conversely, Rhett Lashlee has a grand total of 4 games of head coaching experience and it is all here this season with SMU. However, I am going with the over because I just can't trust the Knights defense here. I do feel Central Florida will pile up plenty of points as the Mustangs defense is a proven weakness. However, this SMU offense is for real. It is proven to be ultra dangerous and they play fast. The Mustangs have allowed 38 points per game last two weeks. The Knights have lower point totals allowed this season but Georgia Tech, despite scoring only 10 points, threw for over 300 yards against them last week. In their only other challenging game, UCF faced Louisville and lost 20-14 but again there could have been a lot more points as the Cardinals both ran AND passed for over 200 yards in each category. The Mustangs are averaging 38.5 points scored per game this season but UCF seeking revenge for a 55-28 beatdown last year at SMU. Indeed the Knights might get their revenge but I don't trust the D enough to lay the short number at home. Simply put, this game should be all about the fireworks on offense! 10* OVER 62.5 in Central Florida |
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10-05-22 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Action on pitchers. As I have stated many times in the past, the odds makers are some of the sharpest people around. There is a reason that of only about a half dozen games with early lines available on the final day of the regular season, this was has the HIGHEST total despite the Reds being a low-scoring SLUMP that has gone for weeks. Historically I love playing overs in day games in Cincinnati and I do look for Reds pitcher Graham Ashcraft to get rocked here. The right-hander is winless in his 6 day games starts this season and has a 6.52 ERA in those outings and has been hit at over a .300 clip! The Cubs had been hot coming into this series and I expect them to pound him. The Reds also should tee off. I know Chicago's Adrian Sampson has solid numbers this season including against the Reds. However, his lone start here in Cincinnati saw him allow 6 hits and walk 3 in just 4 innings. Suffice to say, Sampson was fortunate the damage was only 2 earned runs. Last year against Cincy, the Cubs right-hander allowed 11 hits in 9 innings of work. It has been awhile since Reds off B2B wins but the last time they had won 2 straight they then made it 3 straight with another win in which they scored 8 runs. As for the Cubs sticks bouncing back here, they entered this series having won 11 of 12 and scoring an average of 5 runs per game in their last 8 victories. They will bounce back here after B2B losses and the Reds also look to close out the season with a bang at home and that is why, regardless of starting pitchers (my play is action), I am going with the over here. 10* OVER 8 in Cincinnati |
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10-05-22 | Angels v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4 ET - Action on pitchers. We get a low total because Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels and because the A's are known for struggling to score runs. I am going to take advantage here for multiple reasons. First off, the Angels just faced a lefty in last night's 2-1 tenth inning loss. Their lineup only featured one left-handed bat and that was Ohtani. That is a key here because Waldichuk is a left-handed hurler for the A's and he has been strong against lefties but righties are hitting over .300 against him and overall the rookie has struggled. I am looking for the Angels to bounce back here as they had been winning a lot of games and scoring well prior to last night's loss. They should crush Waldichuk and get this over by themselves. However, don't be surprised if Oakland scratches some runs off Ohtani. Yes he is tough but, throughout his career, his numbers on the road have paled in comparison to his numbers when he is starting on his home mound. Take advantage of the low total and, regardless of the starting pitchers (my play is action), we get payback for last night's ugly loss with our over involving these teams. The final men left on base tally for the game was 20 in 10 innings. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland |
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10-04-22 | Angels v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Regulars know we had this play last night and, on the one hand, we were fortunate to win last night. That's because the game was 4-0 heading to bottom of the 8th and then A's got 2 in the 8th and 2 in the 9th to force extra innings and won it in the bottom of the 10th. While I am grateful for the win for sure 100% I do feel it is one we deserved all along. No game on the board last night had as many hits as ours did and it was simply a game of wasted opportunities for Oakland before the late breakthrough. The A's left 13 men on base in the game! As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up, the Angels have been hot very late in the season and A's home games very quietly have been higher-scoring recently than people realize. I look for these trends to continue here and that is why I like this one regardless of who the starting pitchers end up being. Take action on this one. However, I will say that the expected starters are Michael Lorenzen and Cole Irvin. Note that Lorenzen is 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA in road starts and Irvin has an 8.23 ERA with a .351 batting average against in his 5 September starts. Look for Lorenzen's road struggles to continue against a surprisingly confident Athletics lineup and look for Angels to add to the late-season misery Irvin has been suffering. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland |
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10-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. I know these teams fell short yesterday but I look for a lot more scoring here on a pleasant fall evening in Chicago. The White Sox last homestand saw the 6 games average 9 runs apeice. Now we are seeing a total as low as 7 on this one. It has dropped too low. Chicago has allowed an average of 6 runs per game last 7 home games even including yesterday's low-scoring 3-2 win. The Twins last 7 road games before yesterday's 3-2 loss had averaged 8 runs per game. Again, this total just creeping too low. I get it, based on current trending, but yet you can see why expecting this game to get to 8 or 9 runs is not expecting too much. I like this game regardless of the starting pitching but the expected starters also further strengthen this one. Lucas Giolito is 4-7 with a 6.43 ERA at home this season. Josh Winder is 0-3 with a 6.29 ERA in his last 5 starts. 10* OVER 7 in Chicago White Sox |
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10-03-22 | Angels v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. This is a low total because the A's are known for struggling so bad at the plate and because the Angels have Patrick Sandoval on the mound. However, Sandoval has been hit at a .275 clip this month and has a 1.40 WHIP in September so he seems to be fading a bit here late in the season. Plus he just faced Oakland and they got to him for 3 earned runs in 5 innings in that one last week. This is a late-season match-up between two teams both just playing out the string on the season as post-season hopes were gone long ago. That said, this is when hitters are most relaxed at the plate and the Angels are indeed playing their best baseball of the season. Los Angeles has won 7 straight games and averaged 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. The Angels will tee off on a struggling Adrian Martinez as he has been roughed up over his last 4 starts with 19 earned runs allowed on 29 hits in 18.1 innings of work. He also just faced the Angels and they got to him for 3 earned runs in under 5 innings of work. The total posted here makes sense based on long-term metrics but it does not make sense based on the current situation. Even the A's are off a 10-3 win yesterday on the road and are now back home where each of their last 4 games totaled MORE than 10 runs and, in fact, averaged 14 runs apiece! That is DOUBLE the total posted on this game! Over is 4-0 L4 A's home games! 10* OVER 7 in Oakland |
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10-03-22 | Rams +2 v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +1.5 or +2 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Motivation is so important when professional players are paid many millions to play the sport they love. Guys still sometimes don't have it. They come to the game not fully prepared mentally and they pay for it. That is what happened when the defending Super Bowl Champs opened the season against the Bills and got thoroughly embarrassed on national TV with the whole world watching. Los Angeles got caught still celebrating the Super Bowl victory and thinking a little too much of themselves entering the new season. What does that have to do with this game you might ask? A helluva lot! This is the Rams first chance since then to redeem themselves on the big stage. No one likes to be embarrassed. This is Monday Night Football. It is a division rival. The defending champs will bring their "A game". Now I am not here to tell you this Rams team is as good as last year because they are not. However, they are still better than the 49ers. Yes San Francisco has a great defense but the Rams have a solid defense too, to say the least. Also, LA is particularly strong against the run and the Niners are not a good passing attack (as per usual). So this is where the final key comes in. Rams QB Stafford and the overall LA passing attack ranks the edge over the Niners in that department for sure AND it was Stafford that got embarrassed too with a rough game against Buffalo on opening night. Redemption time here and I know some will point to the revenge angle here for Niners from last year's playoff loss. But these teams just plain don't like each other AND the Rams had actually lost 6 IN A ROW to the Niners before that playoff win. So there is still some payback to be served here and SF has scored less points this season than LA has the past two weeks. Stafford stats the past two weeks are 45 of 61 for 521 yards and 3 td vs 2 int. Garoppolo only 31 of 50 for just 365 yards with 2 td vs 1 int. Also Jimmy G got sacked 4 times last week. Stafford just once each of past two weeks. The Rams ability to move the ball better through the air is the difference in this game. The motivation because of getting drilled on opening night of season on national TV is the other as they show the world the Rams are still a force to be reckoned with by delivering a Monday night bounce back and improve to 3-1 while trying to bury the rival Niners and knock them down to 1-3 on the young season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +1.5 or +2 |
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10-03-22 | Phillies +115 v. Astros | Top | 3-0 | Win | 115 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +115 @ Houston Astros @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies magic number is 1. The Astros magic number is 0. What I mean by the latter is that the Astros have nothing to play for now. They wrapped up the top seed in the American League and they can not catch the Dodgers for the top spot in the majors heading into the post-season. That is why you are seeing what many might perceive to be a "Funny Line" on Houston here with the Astros opening as a small money line favorite here even though they are at home and having a huge season compared to Philadelphia. However, the key for the Phillies is that magic number of 1. They just need 1 win or 1 Brewers loss and they are heading straight to St Louis after this series to face the Cardinals in a best of 3 series in the first round. Phillies Nola is having a strong month in terms of performance but was done in by one bad inning versus Cubs in most recent start. One 3-run homer was the big difference in the game. As for the Astros McCullers, he is coming from an illness and his last start was skipped in the rotation. He may not be 100 percent. Again, my play is action no matter the pitchers anyway. The Phillies are highly motivated here and hungry for first post-season berth since 2011! The Astros could be resting regulars here to avoid injury prior to post-season starting. Houston won't rest everyone all at once but they just are not going to have a stacked lineup here most likely! 10* PHILADELPHIA +115 |
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10-03-22 | Nottingham Forest v. Leicester OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
EPL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Leicester vs Nottingham Forest @ 3 ET - This total is currently available at 2.5 with moderate juice, 2.75 with small juice, or 3.0 with no juice. So you have your options in that regard. Definitely expecting a lot of goals here. I would love to play Leicester here as I do feel they will finally get their first win of the season. The hosts are the only team in the EPL that still do not have a victory. However, the problem is that I can not trust their leaky defense. However, I am certain the hosts are going to be aggressive on the attack as they also want revenge for a 4-1 loss to Nottingham Forest when these clubs met in the FA Cup. Again, just can not trust their defensive woes though and the visitors should have plenty of attacking chances as well in this one. These two clubs have each been conceding far too much this season as Nottingham Forest is allowing 2.4 goals per match and Leicester is allowing 3.1 goals per match! I would not be surprise to see a 3-2 final here but at least we should get to a 2-2 draw or 2-1 final at the bare minimum though the latter certainly not my wish here! 10* OVER the total in Leicester |
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10-03-22 | Rapid Bucuresti v. Chindia Targoviste OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Chindia Targoviste vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 2 ET - Interesting match-up as one of the league's worst hosts one of the league's best. I like the fact that Chindia Targoviste is the only club without a win and Rapid Bucuresti is the only club without a draw this season. Every team has at least 1 defeat after Hermannstadt finally fell yesterday. As for Chindia Targoviste, they have scored at least 1 goal in 3 of their 4 home matches this season. They are so hungry for a win I am confident they will be pushing hard on the attack for a goal here on their home pitch. Now remember what I said above about Rapid Bucuresti not having had a draw. They are not going to want to settle for a 1-1 share of the spoils here. I look for this match to get to a 2-1 final and give us a win. We have some added insurance in that if this game lands on 2 we have a push but definitely expecting a rather entertaining match here as Chindia Targoviste tends to play better at home but Rapid Bucuresti is clearly the better club in this one and will be pushing hard to build off of a 2-1 win last time out. The visitors have won 6 of last 7 matches so they should certainly find the back of the net here against a club that has allowed 18 goals in 11 matches this season! No club has allowed more than these hosts this season! 10* OVER 2 in Chindia Targoviste |
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10-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 45.5 | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs scored just 9 points when Andy Reid and company met Tom Brady and company in Feb of 2021. You can bet that NO ONE in this Chiefs organization has forgotten and KC is fired up for this game. Tampa Bay's defense has been great this season but they have not faced an offense like this just yet. Plus Kansas City is off a loss at Indianapolis last week. Chiefs are in a foul mood and will be raring to go here. Trouble for Chiefs? I do not trust this defense one bit. I just don't. Too many times I have seen them scorched and they are not that good away from home either. The defense that is. The offense is just fine. But when KC defense does not have the home crowd behind them they just don't seem the same. So Tampa Bay has not looked good on offense so far but they have faced a trio of solid defenses. No one can question how good Dallas and Green Bay has looked on that side of the ball and their other opponent was the Saints who have solid defensive stats too. The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in all 3 games this season and I know their stats on defense are "okay" but the 3 teams they have faced have a total of 3 wins in 9 games this season. This Bucs team is 2-1 this season and on their home field and ready to attack coming off a 14-12 loss to a tough Green Bay defense last week. I look for this game to prove to be much more wide open than many are expecting here. 10* OVER 45.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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10-02-22 | Broncos +3 v. Raiders | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +2.5 or +3 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - The betting markets still don't believe in Denver. The Broncos should be 3-0 this season already. They absolutely dominated the Seahawks in Week 1 but were handed a tough loss despite a massive yardage edge. The Raiders, on the other hand, continue to get the respect of the markets despite being 0-3 on the season. They were chasing for the entirety of the game at Tennessee last week as they got down to the Titans and that had to try to battle back but it was too little too late. It takes awhile for a new coach, Josh McDaniels, to get his team all on the same page and Las Vegas is now 0-3 both SU and ATS this season. I know the Broncos have not scored well this season but this offense can still produce and has Russell Wilson at the controls. Their offense is also more well-balanced than a Raiders offense that relies so heavily on the pass. Also, the Broncos are, without question, the much tougher defense. That sets this one up well for an upset victory but I am happy to grab the 2.5 or 3 points being offered in this one as of very early Sunday morning. Another key for me here is that the Broncos have lost 4 straight in this series. They want this game and they have the QB now, in Wilson, to get the job done and lead them to victory on the road here. Raiders have failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they have been a home favorite. 10* DENVER +2.5 or +3 |
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10-02-22 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 4:07 ET - Late season game between two non-contenders and a pair of struggling starters on the mound. I will take the over here regardless of the pitchers. The Angels have won 6 straight games and have scored an average of 5 runs during this stretch. The Rangers have averaged only 4 runs per game last 10 but this is an afternoon game and there will not be any impressive starters on the mound. Those guys have already gone for each team recently so we see guys like Miller and Davidson in this one. The Rangers Miller was 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA in the minors this season so is not a big surprise he has a 6.94 ERA in his 5 MLB appearances so far in his young career. The Angels Davidson is 0-3 with a 9.45 ERA this month and opponents hitting over .300 against him. He is 2-8 with a 5.97 ERA in his young MLB career. Plenty of runs this afternoon in Anaheim. 10* OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels |
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10-02-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -135 @ Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. The expected pitching match-up certainly favors the Phillies in a big way but there is also no getting around the fact that Philly has huge overall team edges in this match-up with Washington. They did drop Game 1 of yesterday's double-header but bounced back with a big win in Game 2. The Nationals are a horrible 17-55 in divisional games this season. The Phillies are 52-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Also, they are 27-17 against left-handed starters and the expected starter here is Corbin for the Nationals. He has had absolutely no success this season against the Phillies and been hit very hard in all 3 outings against them. The Nationals are going to struggle against Phillies expected starter Wheeler. He looks great since returning to the rotation and when he is on like this he is tough to beat. Also he dominated Washington in his only start against them this season. More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135 |
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10-02-22 | Aston Villa v. Leeds United +137 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play Leeds United Money Line +137 vs Aston Villa @ 11:30 AM ET - Leeds United got embarrassed 5-2 by Brentford when they were last in action. Now they are on their home pitch and have had plenty of time to recover from that demoralizing result both mentally and physically. Look for Leeds to come out hungry and refreshed here and they are tough on their home pitch where they are undefeated on the season and have outscored opponents 6 to 2. Note that Aston Villa is 0-3 on the road this season and has been outscored by a 7 to 2 margin as travelers this season. Aston Villa also has injury issues and that, coupled with their struggles away from home, make this is a great spot to back the hosts at a solid home dog money line price. 10* LEEDS UNITED +137 |
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10-02-22 | Manchester United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +115 in Manchester City vs Manchester United @ 9 AM ET - Manchester United has certainly been playing much better after their horrific start to the season. That said, the visitors should be able to find the back of the net at least once in this one. But Manchester City is a machine right now and particularly at home where they have score a ridiculous average of nearly 5 goals per match. Overall, City has scored at least 3 goals in each of last 7 home victories. Given that, I am looking for a 3-1 type match here as Manchester United will not go down without a fight but they can't stop this City juggernaut led by Erling Braut Haaland who has an amazing 11 goals already in this campaign! 10* OVER 3.5 +115 in Manchester City |
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10-01-22 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 62.5 | Top | 27-45 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 62.5 in Oregon Ducks vs Stanford Cardinal @ 11 PM ET - The Ducks got a 44-41 road win last week and now are back home and weather conditions perfect for this one. Unseasonably warm evening in Eugene and a perfect scenario for plenty of points here. The Ducks are a big favorite for a reason and will dictate the tempo and plus the Cardinal don't just always try to ground and pound anymore like the days of old. I don't see the Ducks taking their foot off the gas in this one either no matter the score. That's because last season they were holding on to a late 7 point lead but allowed a late score and then Stanford beat them in overtime by a TD. Ducks seek redemption here and their offense is flying high right now. Oregon has scored 52 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Cardinal just allowed 40 and 41 points in their last two games. Stanford is averaging 30 points per game so the offense has some confidence too. But the defense is likely to be shredded here. Keep in mind though the Ducks are allowing 31 points per game this season and that even includes a game against an FCS school. The Cardinal should hang around enough in this game to force the scoring to keep going. The Ducks will be relentless for the reasons I noted above and that is why this one getting into the 70s would not surprise me in the least. But we should at least eclipse low 60s. 10* OVER 62.5 in Oregon |
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10-01-22 | LSU -8 v. Auburn | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -8 @ Auburn @ 7 ET - Laying 8 points on the road when in a rivalry game with a history of home team dominance? Must be crazy, right? No, in this case it makes all the sense in the world. LSU has Jayden Daniels at QB and his lower back strain is a minor one and he left last week's game because it was a blowout moreso than it being an injury concern. As for Auburn, the QB situation is much different and is ultra concerning. They ended up being down to their 4th string QB last week and barely got a win versus Missouri last week. Auburn's TJ Finley is listed as doubtful but likely to miss this game and was unable to practice. With Zach Calzada now out for the season, that means Robby Ashford gets the call here. He has 1 TD and 2 INT so far this season and now faces the toughest defense yet. I do not expect this to go well for Auburn given their injury situation at QB and LSU is also 3-1 just like Auburn. But LSU comes in rolling off 3 straight wins and their only loss was by a single point in week 1. Auburn comes in struggling with a blowout loss to Penn State two weeks ago and a nail-biter win last week. LSU has double revenge for home loss last season in this match-up and for ugly loss here at Auburn two years ago. This one is going to go a lot different for sure. Road rout here. 10* LSU -8 |
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10-01-22 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - Action on pitchers. This is a very low total when you consider recent results prior to yesterday's shutout loss for the Tigers. Also, Twins did score 7 runs in that win. Regardless of the starting pitchers I like the over here but I will mention them further below. First off, prior to yesterday's loss, Detroit had won 8 of 9 games and their last 10 games had seen them score an average of 5.2 runs per game. The Twins have won 4 of 6 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during this stretch. Now, about those pitchers. Bundy is worse on the road than at home this season. Also he enters this outing have struggled badly in 3 of last 4 outings and he is not getting many strikeouts. Hutchison is 1-8 with a 5.12 ERA in home games this season and has a 6.20 ERA this month with opponents hitting nearly .300 against him. This one should see plenty of scoring early and often as, regardless of the starting pitchers, these teams have been trending well to see at least 8 runs here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Detroit |
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10-01-22 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks +3.5 | Top | 25-18 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +3.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - The Elks should win this outright but I am grabbing the value of the 3.5 points here. However, the fact is that Edmonton is hungry for their first home win of the season and this is the perfect spot to get it. The Elks catch Montreal off a big home win over Hamilton. That divisional win could leave them a little flat here plus Edmonton has the rest edge since they are off a bye week. Additionally, Edmonton has been playing better of late. Getting solid QB play from Cornelius and now they get a top WR back from injury this week too. Montreal, on the other hand, will still be without their star RB Stanback here. On defense the Elks also are fired up off a huge performance piling up sacks versus Saskatchewan two weeks ago. Now fresher legs off the bye and note the Als are 2-4 on the road this season while the hosts here have a sweet 3-1 record versus East Division teams this season. Lot to like with the home team in a great spot here. 10* EDMONTON +3.5 |
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10-01-22 | Newcastle United v. Fulham OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Fulham vs Newcastle United @ 10 AM ET - Fulham has seen each of their last 5 matches in league action total at least 3 goals. Normally I like Newcastle United more at home than on the road when it comes to looking for goal-scoring. However, after all the chances they had in their match against Bournemouth when last on the pitch and yet coming away with another draw, I feel the visitors are going to be very aggressive on the attack here. They had 20 shots and 7 on goal versus Bournemouth but had to settle for a 1-1 draw. Their 5th in 7 matches this season. Newcastle United did get some good news on the injury front that should help the attack in this one too as things are looking much better now in that regard. So I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here but with the visitors propensity for draws, 2-2 the more likely final outcome here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Fulham |
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10-01-22 | Everton v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 106 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Southampton vs Everton @ 10 AM ET - Southampton has conceded at least 1 goal in all 7 matches this season. The host club has averaged scoring 2 goals per match in the last 4 meetings between these clubs. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final. I know that goal-scoring has not been strong for either of these clubs early this season but sometimes, in a case like this, a break like these clubs just had is the best thing possible. This is the first match for these clubs in two weeks and is going to be played a little more wide open than you might normally expect as a result. This is only the 2nd match for each club in 4 weeks of time so it could be a little sloppy too and this leads to turnovers and creates good scoring chances. The final key is that Jordan Pickford is expected back between the pipes for Everton but he is coming back from a thigh injury. Could this still be bugging him some? I feel Southampton is going to be very aggressive on the attack here as they are at home and off B2B road losses by 1-0 counts. Their last home match was a big 2-1 upset of Chelsea. Everton is off a confidence-boosting victory over West Ham United and they have scored in all of their road matches so far this season. 10* OVER 2.5 in Southampton |
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09-30-22 | Ottawa +7 v. BC | Top | 19-34 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +7 @ BC Lions @ 10:30 ET - Surprisingly, the Redblacks are 3-3 SU on the road this season which is nearly as good as the 4-3 home record that BC has. Both teams off bad losses last week but I think we have excellent value here with the big points with Ottawa. The Redblacks had 5 interceptions in last week's ugly home loss to Toronto so they managed to lose by 30 points despite having a yardage edge of 80 in the game! Unheard of variance between the scoreboard and the statsheet. That said, another key is that of course BC has been a different team since their star QB Nathan Rourke got hurt. This week they will be without one of their best wide receivers too as Bryan Burnham is out. He had been strong for the Lions in recent weeks so this certainly will further hurt a passing game that is not the same without Rourke at the controls. BC barely snuck by the Redblacks when these teams met in Ottawa and I am forecasting another tight game here which means the points are ultra-valuable in this one! 10* OTTAWA +7 |
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09-30-22 | Washington -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies -2.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 10:30 ET - I know the Huskies are certainly not known for being Pac-12 road warriors but they are every bit deserving of their #15 ranking on the season. On that note, UCLA is 0-12 SU the last 12 times they have faced a team that is ranked #15 or higher and many of those games were at home just like this one is. Also, the Bruins also lost all 12 of those games by at least 3 points. So, with us laying 2.5 points, this is indeed a 12-0 / 100% SPOT in favor of the Huskies! Look for that streak to reach 13 in a row here. The Bruins did beat a #16 LSU team last year so I do want to note that but this other streak has been triple checked and I like it a lot! UCLA known for struggling to seal the deal in the biggest games. What I really like here is the way former Indiana QB Pennix has thrived in Washington. This is his 5th year so he is loaded with experience. Thompson-Robinson certainly commands respect for the Bruins as well but I feel we have the better overall team in this match-up. The Huskies have faced tougher teams the past two weeks with games against Michigan State and Stanford. Those match-ups certainly tougher than the Bruins facing South Alabama and Colorado. The fact is the Buffaloes are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 while the Jaguars are a Sun Belt team who, by the way, nearly had the Bruins beat here at UCLA in that match-up! The hosts had to rally to win the game in the 4th quarter. So UCLA won the game by 1 point in a game in which the yardage was nearly equal and in which the Bruins trailed by 8 points going to the 4th quarter. Huskies have faced the tougher schedule and have looked better in doing so. I know those games have been at home but the Huskies can win on the road too and they are loaded with confidence right now. 10* WASHINGTON -2.5 |
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09-30-22 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 48.5 in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 8 ET - Both teams coming off a bye week preceded by a loss. Winnipeg allowed a ridiculous 48 points in their loss at Hamilton. Speaking of ridiculous, it was only 3 weeks ago that Winnipeg embarrassed the Roughriders by hanging 54 on them right here. That said, I feel both defenses are going to come to play here. Saskatchewan off a home loss to Edmonton and the D will want to respond after the 54-point debacle the last time here. As for the Blue Bombers, their defense also has had two weeks to think about the debacle at Hamilton as Tiger-Cats QB Dane Evans had a career day against them there. Don't expect a repeat of that here for sure as the Riders offensive line was a big reason they allowed 8 sacks in the loss to the Elks and the Blue Bombers should be getting QB pressure for sure. That is why I feel this one could finish as more of a defensive battle than most are envisioning. Also, the Blue Bombers can lock up a home field playoff game with a win here so their defense has some extra motivation because of that as well. 10* UNDER 48.5 in Winnipeg |
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09-30-22 | Voluntari v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -54.5 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Romania Liga 1 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Universitatea Craiova vs FC Voluntari @ 2 ET - The hosts are a big favorite here at home for a reason. They are expected to win the match by 1 goal as you can see based on the goal line for this match-up. I do not expect them to deliver a clean sheet though and that means strong odds, in my opinion, on at least a 2-1 final in this match-up. Note that FC Voluntari is off a confidence boosting 1-0 win versus U Craiova 1948 in the most recent action 2 weeks ago. Also, they have scored at least 1 goal in 4 of their 5 road matches this season. Universitatea Craiova is in a high-scoring pattern as their last 3 matches have averaged 4 goals per game. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting at least 3 goals here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals +120 in Universitatea Craiova |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47.5 | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 47.5 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - Statistically the Dolphins are one of the top teams in the league for passing offense but one of the worst in terms of pass defense. That is the perfect set up for an over and we also have beautiful weather expected tonight in Cincinnati so both offenses can have the playbook wide open for this one. Love the fact that the Bengals have had all 3 of their games stay under the total and the Dolphins have had 2 of 3 stay under. This means we have a value spot here and sure enough the posted total has moved a little lower and I already felt it could have been higher. Bengals did not score well in the home loss to Pittsburgh to open up the season but they had 432 yards of offense in that game! Cincinnati will have another big performance in what is just their 2nd home game of the season but this time they will have more points to show for it. Keep in mind the Dolphins just faced a #1 ranked Bills defense and another one of their games was against a Patriots defense that has been solid in terms of yardage allowed this season. The point is that this Miami offense, their passing attack, is legitimate and will put pressure on this Bengals defense but I look for Cincinnati to match them score for score in what should be a wide-open and high-scoring affair. QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jaylen Waddle both were on the injury list as questionable but both expected to play here and I think the way they were handled this week is more precautionary than anything else. 10* OVER 47.5 in Cincinnati |
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09-29-22 | Utah State v. BYU OVER 59.5 | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* OVER 59.5 in BYU Cougars vs Utah State Aggies @ 8 ET - The Aggies have disappointed so far this season and that is why this total has been dropping. Two key points to that though. Utah State is not going to stop this ultra-dangerous BYU offense. The Aggies have a veteran QB in Logan Bonner who had a fantastic TD-INT ratio coming into this season. He is off a very ugly game against UNLV in terms of turnovers but he will bounce back here. The Aggies will score some points but they are a 24 point dog with good reason here. That said, I love the over in this spot. BYU has seen 3 of their 4 games total more than 60 points this season. The Aggies, other than the game against Alabama of course (yes, Utah State had to face the Crimson Tide this season), have had better yardage in games than points to show for it. I feel that changes here. Utah State will be excited for this big game facing BYU as THE Thursday game this week and they will want to make the most of it. They will score some points as a result but, again, just not stopping a BYU team that has put up some huge numbers statistically on offense other than the tight relatively low-scoring OT win over Baylor. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Brigham Young games on the season. Also, I like the fact the weather is very mild and will be great weather for the offenses to fully operate tonight in Provo, Utah. 10* OVER the total in BYU |
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09-29-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles and Red Sox, prior to yesterday's surprising 3-1 final, have continued to get involved in wild high-scoring games. I am going action on pitchers here because honestly neither may work deep in this game anyway. Baumann has only made 2 starts out of 11 appearances this season. He is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his 4 road appearances and he is unlikely to work deep here so this is truly more of a bullpen game for the Orioles and we saw how the Red Sox responded against the Baltimore bullpen earlier in this series. The Boston starter here is expected to be Nathan Eovaldi and he is returning from a right shoulder issue. He was not overly impressive in rehab outings. Also, he has a 6.26 ERA with a .322 batting average against in his 8 home starts this season. Prior to yesterday, the Orioles last 5 road games had all totaled at least 9 runs and their last 4 games overall had totaled an average of 18.5 runs apiece! The Red Sox have seen 5 of their last 7 games total at least 9 runs. Also, Boston has scored an average of 9.3 runs per game last 4 home games. They are known for hitting so well at home and even though cooler fall-like weather has started to move in it will be temperate for sure. Just a nice fall afternoon at the ballpark. So we'll take advantage and look for the hitters to rule the day after a rare off-day yesterday for both lineups. 10* OVER 9 in Boston |
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09-28-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 @ Chicago Cubs @ 7:40 ET - The Phillies off a tight 2-1 loss but should bounce back here. I am going with action on pitchers as I look for a Philadelphia bounce back either way but I will mention that the expected starters are Aaron Nola and Hayden Wesneski. Note that Nola has been dominant for much of this season and has a 2.08 ERA this month plus his road ERA is lower than his home ERA this year. As for Wesneski, I know he has impressive numbers for far but he struggled in his lone start against a better team, the Giants, while feasting on bad teams like the Reds and Pirates and a Rockies team that can not hit on the road. So the point is that he is due for a reality check here. His stuff is not overpowering and he had a rather high ERA in the minors this season. In other words, he is a little over-rated right now and the struggles will come in this game against a tough Phillies lineup. Philadelphia has had only one losing streak last longer than 3 games since the All Star Break. The Phillies have gone 4-1 the last 5 times they have entered a game on a 3-game losing streak. The visitors respond big here and win this by a multi-run margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110 |
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09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles and Red Sox continue to get involved in wild high-scoring games. I know Kremer has pitched well of late but Boston is feeling it right now at home and he did struggle here in his only start at Fenway Park this season. Hill has struggled badly at home this season with a 2-4 record and a 5.87 ERA. Also, in night games this season, Hill has a 6.36 ERA this season. In the month of September, Hill has a 5.96 ERA and opponents have hit .305 against him this month. The Orioles last 5 road games have all totaled at least 9 runs. Their last 4 games overall have totaled an average of 18.5 runs apiece! The Red Sox have seen 5 of their last 6 games total at least 9 runs. Also, Boston has scored an average of 11.3 runs per game last 3 home games. They are known for hitting so well at home and it is one more mild day in the forecast for Boston today on Wednesday before cooler fall-like weather starts to move in. So we'll take advantage and look for the hitters to rule the night once again. 10* OVER 9 in Boston |
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09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I like this play regardless of starters but will start with discussing the expected starting pitchers first. Joey Wentz has some solid numbers in limited action this season but his worst start was at home. Also, the big key here as he makes just the 6th start of his MLB career is the fact that he is facing the same team he saw a few weeks ago. This is the first time he has ever had to go a 2nd start against a team he already faced. Oftentimes young pitchers are more hittable in situations like this. As for Zack Greinke, he is known for often being stronger at home than on the road and this season that trending has been particularly pronounced. While he is 4-2 with a 2.32 ERA at home, Greinke is 0-7 with a 6.36 ERA on the road this season! Huge home/road dichotomy for him. Tigers have won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 5 victories. Royals have won 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 8 games. You can see why I am expecting plenty of runs in this one despite it being a chilly evening in Detroit for this one. Not cold but definitely cool but again the numbers show us what we should expect here and it should certainly be more than 8 given all of the above. 10* OVER 8 in Detroit |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +1 @ New York Giants @ 8:15 - It is hard to stay undefeated in the NFL for very long. This is the final game of week 3 and only the Dolphins in AFC and Eagles in NFC are 3-0 teams. The point is that the Giants have a chance here too as they are 2-0 but it shows you how odds are stacked against this happening considering there are 32 teams in the league and all but 3 of them have at least 1 loss on the year. Aside from the "odds factor" here, I am playing Dallas in this one because their defense really impressed in the week 2 win over the Bengals and I also liked what I saw from Cooper Rush at QB. Yes it has hurt the Cowboys that they are without QB Dak Prescott but they still are a very talented team that annually is a threat for double digit wins in recent years. Conversely, the Giants have annually been a threat for double digits losses for half a decade now. New York has played better than expected and is 2-0 to start the season but I still don't trust QB Daniel Jones. After a good rookie season he had nearly as many INTs as TDs the past two seasons combined. I know he is off to a good start this season but he is going to face a tough challenge here with the way Dallas can get after the QB. I expect the Cowboys to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Also, Cowboys have won 9 of last 10 games against Giants. Also, Dallas has covered 6 straight games in divisional action. The Cowboys, long-term, on a very strong ATS run and that opening game primetime embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay has them primed for a much better effort on the road in this primetime affair. They can know up the Giants for a tie for 2nd place in the division with a win here. Yes it is early in the season but you can bet the Cowboys are very hungry here while Giants dealing with a little extra pressure to remain unbeaten and they are at home and facing a nemesis and coming off B2B dramatic tight wins. 10* DALLAS +1 |
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09-26-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers as this is a hitter-friendly ballpark and hitter-friendly conditions are expected tonight. However, I will start with the expected starters here. The Orioles Jordan Lyles has a 5.48 ERA in road games this season and that is 2 runs higher than his home ERA. Also, the Red Sox have hammered Lyles this season and have hit him particularly hard last 3 meetings with 15 earned runs in just 12 innings. Boston has 25 hits in those 12 innings! As for Red Sox starter Connor Seabold, he has struggled in limited action in his MLB career. He is now 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA and .395 BAA in his 4 starts this season. Red Sox sticks struggled in weekend series with Yankees but now they are back at home. Boston is 8-4 last dozen home games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in these dozen games. Baltimore cooled off after a hot run from late July to mid-August. However, the Orioles still have a respectable lineup that enters this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game last 5 games. More of the same expected here as they bounce back from a 6-3 loss versus Houston yesterday. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers have a good defense no doubt but San Francisco has seen bad offenses so far this season. Bears one of worst offenses in league and that opening week game at Chicago was played in rainy conditions. Then in week 2 the Niners faced a bad Seahawks offense. Seattle, like Chicago, will likely end up being one of the worst teams in the league this season. Now I know what your thinking...the Broncos lost to that bad Seattle team in week 1. However, Denver outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards and that was simply a bad beat for people that backed them - just like I did win week 1. That was a Monday night game and a big one for Russell Wilson in his return to Seattle. So the Broncos QB and the entire Denver team had a bit of a lackluster effort against a bad Texans team ad playing playing on a short week last week. Trust me, they'll now be ready for this primetime affair and they are not getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. The Broncos also have a good defense just like the Niners do. The difference is the 49ers lost QB Trey Lance to a season-ending injury and Jimmy G was the back-up for a reason. He gets the start again here and the SF offense just is not that good no matter who is at QB. The Broncos have the better weapons and they have the better QB in Wilson. Add it all up plus the home dog value here and I am all over this one! 10* DENVER +1.5 |
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09-25-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:08 ET - Usually the way these series start is the way they go all the way through and this has been another high-scoring one between these teams. We just need 9 runs to be a winner with this one and each of the first 3 games in this series have reached at least that and yesterday's totaled a dozen runs. The last 15 games between these rivals have averaged about 11 runs per game and I look for another high-scoring one tonight. I know Cortes has good numbers for the Yankees this season but he did struggled in his first start against Boston this season. I know the second one, earlier this month, did go better for him but I like the way the Red Sox have been swinging the bats again and they have confidence heading into this one. As for Bello, he has a 0.90 ERA last two starts but that is deceiving as he has given up 14 hits in 10 innings spanning those two outings! One of those was against the Yankees and now they hit him harder in the rematch. He has been very hittable this season and gets hit hard here again. No matter the starting pitchers, I expect this one to fly over the total! 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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09-25-22 | Packers v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 14-12 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 42 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - This total has plummeted. The tropical storm approaching Florida is in the news but that is still a few days away. That said, the big reason for the drop here is that the Bucs have concerns at the WR spot. Evans is suspended for this game and Godwin is out with an injury. I do expect Julio Jones to play and QB Tom Brady (finger) also has been given the all clear for this one. Gage and Perriman and Miller all expected to be available at WR too for this one. Also Cole Beasley has been activated from the practice squad to the roster and he caught 82 passes EACH of the last two seasons for the Bills. Everyone excited about the Packers defense after they shut down Bears last week but the Chicago offense is currently putrid. The week before the Pack gave up nearly 400 yards and allowed 23 points at Minnesota. Yes that is the same Vikings team the Eagles just held to 7 points on Monday night. As for the Bucs team they have faced a dysfunctional Cowboys offense and a Saints offense with a long-term inconsistent QB (Winston) at the helm. Now the Bucs D faces Aaron Rodgers! This total is a 42 and we are talking about Brady versus Rogers. I see more points being scored than many are expecting here. Green Bay's offense was done in by turnovers in week 1 and then in week 2 they piled up 27 points in first half before taking their foot off the gas in the 2nd half and the Bears defense is solid. These teams are offering us great value on the low total here because they each have had B2B unders to start the year. 10* OVER 42 in Tampa Bay |
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09-25-22 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Another high-scoring game expected here. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games this season when they meet up and that resumed yesterday after a strange result Friday when the teams went a combined 3 for 19 with runners in scoring position. Now the runs are flowing in and that continues on a mild Sunday afternoon in Denver. Coors Field will see the ball carrying very well in this one and Clevinger is known for struggling on the road and this is not an easy venue to pitch in and he has struggled here this season. At the same time, Freeland is known for struggling more at home (naturally with the venue) and he has struggled against the Padres when facing them here this season. Off a 9-run outburst yesterday fueled by a 6-run inning, San Diego has extra confidence at the plate today and this one should get crazy as Rockies have yet to score well in this series and I sense they will mash today. It is not often they do not score well at home throughout a series and this is the right spot for them to smash the ball. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Being a contrarian in the NFL has served me very well through the years. I love this spot for the Colts. They just lost at Jacksonville in embarrassing 24-0 fashion. This was after an embarrassing tie at Houston in which they outgained the Texans by over 200 yards but still did not win the game. Now Indianapolis plays their first home game of the season and they are catching 5.5 points against a Chiefs team off a very lucky win. Kansas City got the non-covering win versus the Chargers last week but were outgained, even though at home, by nearly 100 yards! The Chiefs truly only won that game because of a 99-yard interception return that was essentially a 14-point swing on the scoreboard. Now we get line value this week as a result. The 2-0 Chiefs at the 0-2 Colts. Looks like a no-brainer, right? No, this is the NFL and "on any given Sunday" holds very true in many games each and every week. The Colts are much better than they have shown so far and the Chiefs piled up yardage against a bad Cardinals defense in week 1 but then struggled quite a bit against a real defense in the form of the Chargers last week. Keep in mind, statistically the Colts have been much better on both sides of the ball then the point totals show. Grab the home dog and I am expecting an outright upset here but will grab the points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +5.5 |
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09-24-22 | Calgary +1 v. BC | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1 @ BC Lions @ 10 PM ET - Yes the Lions managed to sneak past the Stampeders last week but it was in OT and BC still has not won a game in regulation time since week 11 and we are now in week 15. Calgary is 5-2 on the road this season and the only two losses away from home were at Winnipeg. Of course the Blue Bombers have been the best team in the league this season so no shame in those two defeats and one of the losses was by just a 2-point margin. The Stamps QB Maier had 3 touchdown passes last week while the Lions Adams did not have a single one. Yes, BC is a quality football team but they are not the same team without Rourke at QB. He was lost to a season-ending injury about a month ago and the Lions have struggled since then. After the Lions clawed their way to a tight OT victory last week at Calgary, look for the Stampeders to return the favor at BC! Note that the Stamps are 8-0 this season against teams not named Winnipeg or BC. The Lions have beaten them twice but by a total of just 3 points. There is a reason this game is priced at nearly a pick'em even though the Stampeders are on the road. This time the Stamps get over the hump and beat BC as I liked what I saw last week despite them falling just short on the scoreboard. Payback time in a key game for the visitors here. 10* CALGARY +1 |
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09-24-22 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - As mentioned yesterday, the Rockies are happy to see the Giants leave Denver! Colorado had just got swept by San Francisco and did not score well at all in any of the final 3 games of the 4-game sweep. Off a home shutout Thursday by a 3-0 count even though each team got to double digits in hits, I expected the runs to start pouring in now with the Padres coming to town. However, the teams went a ridiculous combined 3 of 19 with runners in scoring position yesterday! Look for more clutch hitting today for sure after that nonsense. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games when they meet no matter the venue and I also like the fact that San Diego entered this series 13-8 last 21 road games. The Padres scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 13 road victories! The Rockies should join the run-scoring party tonight as they have a tendency to pound Padres pitching when they face them here at Coors Field. No matter the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this one. But I will mention the expected starters are Yu Darvish and Chad Kuhl. Note that Darvish struggles more on the road including going 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road last season. He also has struggled at times against the Rockies in recent seasons. As for Kuhl, he is winless with a 9.00 ERA and a .325 BAA in his 8 starts since All-Star break. My play is with action on pitchers! I'll take advantage of the line drop to 10.5 here! 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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09-24-22 | Toronto v. Ottawa OVER 46.5 | Top | 45-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 in Ottawa Redblacks vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - These teams are off a bye week last week and had met the week before. The bye week means fresh legs here and the offenses will push the pace. The meeting the week prior staying under the total despite both teams putting up very impressive yardage numbers means line value here. The game two weeks ago should have easily gone over the total and yet ended up an under. The result is we have a total lower than it should be here and we have false perception in the marketplace. We'll take advantage. This one flies over the total as both offenses move the ball very well again and, this time, the points scored are commensurate with the yardage being piled up! 10* OVER 46.5 in Ottawa |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas State v. Old Dominion OVER 56.5 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play OVER 56.5 in Old Dominion Monarchs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 6 ET - We cashed with the over involving Arkansas State last week (at Memphis) and just as I mentioned last week you will read some similar things this week. I know this is not an exciting marquee match-up but this one jumped off the page at me because if you like the excitement of a ton of points being scored, this most certainly should be an entertaining affair here. Old Dominion is off a deceiving final score last week as they allowed over 500 yards of offense but only 16 points! That kind of craziness often leads to line value the very next week and that is the case here. Let's not forget the Monarchs did allow 39 points in their prior game which was at East Carolina. Also, though the Old Dominion offense has unimpressive stats so far they now take on an Arkansas State team that has allowed huge points and yardage against FBS foes. The Red Wolves rank as one of the worst defenses in the nation. However, Arkansas State's offense does their best to try to make up for it. They scored 32 points last week versus Memphis and also did put up 50 on those same Tigers last season when they faced them. Arkansas State no stranger to shootouts is the point I am making and lets not forget they scored over 50 in their first game this season. Even though that was only against Grambling, it is proof the offense can execute when the match-up is favorable. This one is favorable for sure in terms of plenty of points scored and the Red Wolves will score their fair share here. However, they are the underdog here for a reason. They just will not be able to stop a Monarchs offense that is at home and desperately in search of that breakout game and now has the perfect poor defense to be very efficient against and pile up points. The Red Wolves don't have the defensive talent to slow them down. The result is a shootout in this one. 10* OVER 56.5 in Old Dominion |
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09-24-22 | Braves v. Phillies +130 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers. We cashed in tremendous home dog value with the Phillies Thursday as a top play underdog and now will come right back with them again in similar situation Saturday after also cashing with them Friday as the favorite. Phillies won 9-1 yesterday and I love this spot too. The home team has now won 9 of last 11 games between these divisional rivals. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of big 9-1 win yesterday following 1-0 shutout win Thursday after Wednesday's dramatic 4-3 comeback win in extra innings. Riding the positive wave, the Phillies are going to be tough to beat here. Keep in mind this series is the Phillies final home series of the season! They have had this one circled as being of key importance in their quest for securing a wild card spot because it is a long road trip after this to close out the season. That said, I like this play regardless of pitchers here but will mention that Falter has been pitching very well and has a 2.25 ERA last 7 starts. Wright has an impressive record for Braves on season but he has been roughed up recently in the month of September and the Phillies are currently the much hotter lineup in comparison with Atlanta. Acuna (back) might miss again to day for Braves. I look for the home team to improve to 10-2 last 12 between these rivals. The Braves are actually just 1-6 last 7 road games and have been held to an average of just 1 run per game in 5 of the 6 losses! More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +120 |
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09-24-22 | Texas v. Texas Tech +7 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - When people think of the Longhorns football program right now most just keep thinking about the game against Alabama two weeks ago which certainly was an ultra-impressive performance from Texas and they should be (and have been) commended for that. However, their first game of the season was against an out-classed UL Monroe team and then, after facing Crimson Tide, they faced a UTSA team that is set to be down some this season. Also, Roadrunners are not on the same level as the UT program yet actually hung much tougher with the Horns then the final score shows. UTSA had over 400 yards of offense and had 29 first downs compared to just 21 for Texas. Now further complicating this match-up for UT is, after getting hurt in the Alabama game, their starting QB still likely will not start this game. Ewers had a collarbone injury and even if he plays here I don't think he'll be 100% here. Either way, Card or Ewers making their first road start of this season and that is another big key here. UT has had a great early season schedule with 3 straight home games and their 2 wins over foes from much weaker conferences. Now the Longhorns finally go on the road and this is a big rivalry game and the Red Raiders would love nothing more to knock off their in-state rivals. Texas Tech has played very strong on defense this season and their loss at NC State last week was deceiving as they actually had a big yardage edge and first down edge and were simply done in by turnovers against the Wolfpack. All this has led to line value on the home dog catching a full touchdown here. The fact that UT has dominated this rivalry in recent years only adds fuel to the fire that will be burning for the team from Lubbock today. This is a fantastic home dog spot! 10* TEXAS TECH +7 |