Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-08-23 | Illinois v. Kansas -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 28 m | Show |
Friday CFB 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -3 vs Illinois Illini @ 7:30 ET - This is not the Kansas of old - not under head coach Leipold - no way! As for the Illini - coach Bielema has a poor history in road openers (or 1st neutral site game - anything away from home to start season) and he is 0-2 ATS here with Illinois already. Overall, Illinois is 0-4 ATS L4 years in road openers, the last two with Bielema at the helm. Last week the Illini were at home at home and were favored by nearly double digits against Toledo and yet were outgained and had to win the game on a field goal with just a few seconds left on the clock. I know the Jayhawks pulled away late in their win over FCS opponent Murray State but they also were without starting QB Jalon Daniels who I believe was held out of that game simply because coach Leipold felt they could easily beat the FCS Racers without him. They did end up ultimately winning 48-17 and Daniels is likely getting the start this week. Either way, I like the fact that the Jayhawks are returning one of the most experienced rosters in the country, Leipold is really starting to build something here, the Illini have Big Ten opener versus Penn State on deck, and Kansas has a situational edge factor since they have an extra day of rest (played Friday) plus are home again this week! The Illini are on a short week and have the Nittany Lions on deck plus they are traveling for this one! The Jayhawks have only a non-conference game at Nevada on deck so this is easily the most important early season game for them while the same can not be said for Illinois. This line was around a 4 and I know it may seem hard to trust the Jayhawks as a favorite but the fact the line has moved down to a 3 has me liking this one even more. This line is as of early Thursday morning for the Friday evening affair. Lets jump on it! 10* KANSAS -3 |
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09-08-23 | Hamilton +4 v. Ottawa | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +4 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Yes, the Ti-Cats failed to cover in their home loss to Toronto last week. However, the yardage in that loss by a double digit margin actually had Hamilton with a slight edge! The week before they had won big at BC over the Lions. This Ti-Cats team is stronger than their record. There is line value here because the Redblacks are coming off their bye week and they are at home and everyone sees the final score of the Argonauts win over this Hamilton team last week. That is causing an over-reaction toward the Ottawa side here. Lets not forget this Redblacks team lost to West Division cellar dweller Edmonton the prior week in a non-divisional battle. Note the Elks are the only West Division team without a SU divisional win. Similarly, the Redblacks are the only East Division team without a SU divisional win. Edmonton is 0-7 in divisional games and Ottawa is 0-5 in divisional games. Yes this is a divisional game and we are fading this 0-5 spot for the Redblacks and we are even getting a handful of points to work with. I'll take it! Look for this play-against angle to improve to 6-0 but we'll also grab the points for added insurance. 10* HAMILTON +4 |
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09-08-23 | Royals v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:07 ET - The Royals have been scoring well for quite an extended stretch now but they still are one of the worst teams in the league because of their pitching. Their bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the league and here they are essentially going with a bullpen game because Collin Snyder is projected to get the start and he has been a bullpen guy at the MLB level. The Royals just don't have many pitching options right now and even Zack Greinke struggled when used out of the bullpen. The good news for KC though is that projected Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has been struggling. He has given up 13 runs (9 earned) on 19 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts. Kikuchi also walked 4 in less than 5 innings in his most recent start. The Royals have scored an average of 7.3 runs in last 6 games. The Blue Jays have a solid lineup and are 14 games over .500 on the season thanks in part to solid run-scoring capabilities. The Jays enter this one off a 5-2 loss at Oakland Wednesday but got some much needed rest yesterday after the long travel back from the west coast and that low-scoring loss was preceded by the Jays scoring 7.2 runs per game last 10 games. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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09-08-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -140 vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are 41-26 at home this season and remember they finished up last season on a red hot run at home that carried all the way through the post-season as well. Philadelphia is a tough team to face here and Sanchez has been better than his record shows. Also, though he is off a bit of a shaky outing, Sanchez had previously been very strong in 9 of his last 10 starts. Other than the one outlier he had allowed a total of only 14 earned runs in the other 9 starts. As for the Marlins, they have been making a solid push here as the season has gone on but they are still 4 games below .500 in road games and 10 games below .500 against teams with a winning record on the season. Perez has struggled in 3 of his last 4 road starts and actually allowed multiple homers in all 3 of those rougher outings. Philly is a solid home favorite here with good reason! 10* PHILADELPHIA -140 |
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09-08-23 | Latvia v. Croatia OVER 3 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #225445: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Croatia vs Latvia @ Noon ET - Of course you can tell by the goal line of 2.5 on this one and the massive money line on Croatia, Latvia is in big trouble here. However, I do like the fact that Latvia - despite all the recent losing - has been scoring some goals. They have scored at least once in 4 of last 5 matches and 3 of their last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals with 2 of the 3 reaching the 5 goal mark. I am looking for at least a 3-1 final here. Something along those lines as Latvia could surprise with a goal here but it will Croatia that should be relentless and scoring plenty as they put on a show for the home fans here. Croatia's last action was a scoreless match with Spain in Nations League so you know they want to bring a top effort here! Their 3 matches prior to that were wins by a combined score of 7 to 2 including a 4-2 in in most recent match. Yes they are capable of shutting down Latvia but, coming off a shutout, look for their bigger focus to be in the offensive end of the pitch and they have so many edges everywhere they could actually win this match by a 4-0 type of count. Either way, I am looking for this one to get over the total here as it is a nice set-up for anticipating goals. 10* OVER 3 in Croatia |
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09-08-23 | Spain v. Georgia OVER 2.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #225437: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Georgia vs Spain @ Noon ET - Georgia, of course, is in trouble here. But they are hosting and did score an average of 3 goals in 3 matches before the 2-0 defeat at the hands of Scotland. Of course one of those was a friendly against a heavily outclassed foe, Mongolia, but the point is that Georgia has the attacking confidence to get a goal here. That is particularly true since they are on their home pitch and that is why I am forecasting a 2-1 type final here. However, the reality is that Spain could score enough to get this one over the total all by themselves. The fact is that Spain does not have the power they once did but Georgia has allowed 8 goals in last 5 matches and I expect the visitors to be very aggressive on the attack here. Spain faced Georgia twice in 2021 and won those games by a combined score of 6 to 1. I look for Spain to explode offensively here as they are fired up after a scoreless match with Croatia in Nations League action over the summer and also their most recent match in these Euro Champ Qualifiers was, like Georgia, a 2-0 loss at the hands of Scotland. Their other two recent matches were wins by a combined score of 5 to 1 and each of those matches totaled 3 goals and this one will too as Spain is coming out hungry and relentless for this one but don't be surprised if the hosts score one on the counterattack as well. 10* OVER 2.5 in Georgia |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Thursday NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is excited about the Lions this season and I am not saying they will not be better but I do feel they still have a ways to go - at least on defense. That said, the Chiefs have long been known for being tougher on defense when they are at home. So now start to dig deeper in this match-up and you will really see some value in this one! The Chiefs were favored originally by a touchdown here and the line was holding near 7 until the Travis Kelce injury. That has resulted in this line dropping to the 4.5 range as of early gameday morning. Even if Kelce does not play here, I still look for the Chiefs to roll here but I actually feel he will play and he will be fine. Plus consider the normal 3 point assessment given to home teams in the NFL. That means this line of 4.5 is saying the Lions are very nearly as good as the Lions on a neutral field. Now ask yourself, if this was the Super Bowl and the Lions were meeting the Chiefs - this would be neutral field of course - would the line really be nearly a pick'em? Of course not! This line has been over-adjusted because of the early season hype on the Lions and the Kelce injury situation. Our job is to find value situations like this and take advantage and we'll do just that here! Yes the Lions finished last season hot with an 8-2 run but has anyone bothered to look at who they played? Remember teams play 17 games now and Detroit's 10-game run only featured two teams that ended up with more than 9 wins on the season. Against those two teams, the Lions beat the Vikings but lost to the Bills. Again, I will say Detroit is improved and they have a solid offense but I don't trust this defense and I don't think they march into Arrowhead on opening night and get a win. The Lions 4 road losses last season were by an average margin of defeat of 16 points! I love playing dogs and I love upsets but sometimes laying the points is absolutely the way to go and this is a fantastic value play here! 10* KANSAS CITY -4.5 |
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09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:20 ET - The Cardinals won 11-6 yesterday and it was no fluke as they won the day before 10-6. These guys are scoring runs like crazy so far in this series but of course the Braves have been the best lineup in baseball this season and their high-scoring ways have continued. They will take things to a higher gear tonight considering that Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals. I know recently he has had a couple of better starts but even in both of those he had more walks than strikeouts. He won't be fooling these Braves hitters tonight and he has not fooled much of anyone for much of this season either. Wainwright has a 3-10 record and an 8.10 ERA on the season. I know Max Fried has good numbers for the Braves and he is a rock solid pitcher. However, before his strong start to begin September, Fried had given up 29 hits in less than 22 innings of work over his 4 prior starts. He has been very hittable and now faces a red hot St Louis lineup. That is why, even though Fried has great numbers this season, this total is set so high. Don't let the big number scare you away. This one likely will get into the same range the prior two games in this series did though this time I expect it will be the Braves doing plenty of damage as they salvage a game in this series. 10* OVER 10 in Atlanta |
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09-07-23 | Rep. of Ireland v. France OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #225417: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -125 in France vs Ireland @ 2:45 ET - France is a huge favorite here and will be looking to lay down a beating after barely squeaking by in the first meeting in Ireland by a 1-0 count. Now at home, France will be even more aggressive on the attack but I like what Ireland did in the first meeting and that should lead to some chances again here. I am projecting a 3-1 final as the visitors should make the net ripple at least once here but will not have any hopes of slowing down a surging France team on their home soil. France has scored 2.4 goals per match last 5 across all competitions and they are a perfect 4-0 so far in this competition. Ireland has some added confidence courtesy of scoring an average of 1.7 goals per match in their last 4 matches across all competitions. However, Ireland just will not be able to stop the attack of one of the top clubs in the nation here in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -125 in France |
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09-07-23 | Montenegro v. Lithuania OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #225405: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -125 in Lithuania vs Montenegro @ Noon ET - Montenegro needs a victory here. That could get them back into contention in Group G. That said, I do not expect them to "sit back" here and look for a draw with a defensive gameplan. On the contrary, they will show some aggression and look to be on the attack early and often in this one. At the same time, the fact Lithuania is at home is a positive for seeing goals here. They are certainly not going to lay down at home here but when these teams met twice 5 years ago, Montenegro did score 6 goals against them with Lithuania managing just 1 goal in the match in which they were hosting. There is still separation between the level of these clubs and that is why Montenegro is a solid favorite on the road here. That is why I am expecting a 2-1 type match here. Lithuania has allowed 1.7 goals per match in their last 3 competition matches. Montenegro has allowed 2 goals per match in last 3 matches across all competitions. 10* OVER 2 -125 in Lithuania |
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09-06-23 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles @ 9:38 ET - The Orioles should pound Patrick Sandoval here. The Angels left-hander has struggled badly in 3 of his last 4 starts. Also, the over is a PERFECT 4-0 in Sandoval's last 4 starts against AL foes and all 4 of those games totaled at least 11 runs and actually averaged 15 runs! Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Orioles here and, like Sandoval, he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts! Also, 4 of his last 5 starts have resulted in overs and all 4 of them totaled double digits in runs. This one should too. I know the Angels lineup is not what it once was but they still have been scrappy recently and they showed that again yesterday. LA games have totaled at least 9 runs in 9 of last 11 and all we need here is 9 to be a winner with this total set at 8.5 runs. The Angels bullpen has been struggling and the Orioles have won 13 of 17 games thanks in large part to red hot production at the plate. Baltimore has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. Simply put, this total is too low. 10* OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels |
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09-06-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - Another wild one yesterday between these clubs as the runs were piling up and I expect more of the same today on Wednesday. The White Sox have seen 7 of last 8 road games total at least a dozen runs and the only one that did not actually totaled 9 runs! We'll see big runs again here, especially when you consider that 14 of 20 Royals games have totaled double digits in runs including 5 in a row. KC has averaged scoring 6 runs in those games and they stay hot the plate here Wednesday! These are also two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA this season! In terms of the starting pitchers here - and I do like this over regardless of the starters based on all of the above - note that both are likely to get rocked here. Touki Toussaint walks about 1 batter per inning on the road and he is coming off an August in which he allowed 6 homers in 5 starts! Of course walks and homers are never a good combo for pitchers. The Chicago right-hander is 2-7 this season and his counterpart here, Jordan Lyles has an equally low winning percentage this season. Lyles is 4-15 this season but he is coming off a rare good start. That is actually good news for us because Lyles threw a season-high 114 pitches. Note that every time this season Lyles has thrown at least 100 pitches he has given up at least 4 runs in his next start and been pounded in most of them. In those 5 starts, that followed the heavy pitch counts, he has allowed 26 earned runs - an average of 5 per start and NEVER less than 4. All signs point to another high-scoring game here between these divisional foes. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-06-23 | Derry City v. UC Dublin OVER 3 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #205681: Irish Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in UC Dublin vs Derry City @ 2:45 ET - Derry City is a massive money line favorite here for a reason and favored by a 2-goal margin on the goal line. The set up here is ideal as they are off a 3-1 win and each of last two matches have totaled 4 goals. They also have scored 3.7 goals in winning each of last 3 matches with UC Dublin. Note that UC Dublin lost the most recent meeting by a 4-1 final. They again are in trouble here defensively and in goal but they also should again notch at least 1 goal as they are on their home pitch and Derry City has been conceding goals of late. UC Dublin is the worst club in the league by far and consistently allows big goal totals. They are allowing 2.5 goals per match and are outclassed here by this Derry City club. Look for a 3-1 or 4-0 or 4-1 type final here. 10* OVER 3 in UC Dublin |
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09-05-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies Kyle Freeland is 5-14 with a 5.18 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt is 1-7 with a 6.21 ERA this season. Pfaadt has particularly struggled at home where he has a 7.30 ERA and opponents are hitting .320 against him in this, his rookie, season! He just got roughed up at LA by the Dodgers and now he is back home where he has been hit hard in 6 of his 8 starts this season. Unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland has been a little worse on the road than at home in hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. He is 1-9 with a 5.32 ERA this season on the road and opponents are hitting .306 against him away from home. Freeland is 1-4 with a 6.45 ERA since the All-Star break and gave up 11 homers in 6 starts last month. No sign that things are getting any better for the southpaw and Arizona has average 5.4 runs per game last 7 home games. Prior to yesterday's 4-2 Dbacks win, 8 of the 10 meetings between these clubs had totaled at least 9 runs and 7 of the 8 that did actually reached double digits. All signs point to the fact this one will as well. Note that the Rockies are dead last in team bullpen ERA this season in the NL and that, among NL teams the Diamonbacks are only two spots above bottom-dwelling Colorado. We'll see runs here! 10* OVER 9 in Colorado |
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09-05-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - Dylan Cease has a 5.37 ERA in road games this season a 5.42 ERA on the road. Cease is coming off an August in which he compiled an 8.07 ERA in his 6 starts. Brady Singer enters this one off B2B very rough start for the Royals. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 8 innings of work over his past two starts. Singer has a 5.15 ERA on the season and the White Sox have seen 6 of last 7 road games total at least a dozen runs and the only one that did not actually totaled 9 runs! We'll see runs here, especially when you consider that 13 of 19 Royals games have totaled double digits in runs in including 4 in a row. KC has averaged scoring 6 runs in those games and they stay hot the plate here Tuesday! These are also two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA this season! 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-04-23 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles @ 9:38 ET - The Angels Kenny Rosenberg has very little MLB activity in his career but has a 1.75 WHIP in his 5 appearances (1 career start). The Angels pitching is going nowhere fast and they recently did an unloading of veteran players. This team is wrapping up for this season but they can still score runs but also give them up in bunches too. The Angels should hit well tonight as the Orioles Grayson Rodriguez got destroyed by the Angels earlier this season. Also, he has been pitching better overall of late but still has a 5.03 ERA this season and the Angels could get to him again here. Of course the Orioles are a huge favorite here for a reason and they will pound Rosenberg and a bullpen that has a 4.76 ERA and ranks as one of the worst in the majors. 5 of last 6 Angels games have totaled double digits and those games averaged 15 runs per game! 7 of last 9 Baltimore games have totaled at least 9 runs and that is the total on this game. The Orioles have averaged 6.4 runs per game last 15 games - an 11-4 stretch for them and I am projecting a high-scoring battle here. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels |
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09-04-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary -4 | Top | 31-35 | Push | 0 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders - points vs Edmonton Elks @ 7 ET - This is a great set-up for a play on the home team. The line was up near a 6 and is now down to a 4 at the time of this posting. Also, the Stampeders are off 3 straight losses but this followed a win over the defending champ Argonauts that had Calgary sitting at a still ugly, yet more reasonable, 3-5 on the season. Now, after 3 straight losses, I feel certain the Stampeders are going to get going again here. They catch the Elks off B2B wins but Edmonton was 0-9 this season before that. Now they are just a 4 point dog here even though the Stamps are at home? This line is basically saying these teams are equal on a neutral field. I am not buying that as it was not that long ago the Stampeders were 3-5 and the Elks were 0-9! Another thing favoring the hosts here is they have a rest edge over the visitors in this one. So while I do respect Edmonton and I know they are improving, they are still 0-6 SU in divisional games this season and I look for the Stamps to come out with a chip on their shoulders in this one and roll to a huge win! 10* CALGARY - points |
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09-04-23 | Phillies +104 v. Padres | Top | 9-7 | Win | 104 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ San Diego Padres @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies are a small dog here because they are on the road and because the Padres are still fighting for a playoff spot. That makes this a great value spot on Philly because they are 8-4 last 12 games and 16-10 last 26 while Padres are 10-17 last 27 games. San Diego does enter this game having won 3 straight but are actually 0-7 this season when they enter a game on a 3-game winning streak! The Padres have Rich Hill going tonight and he is 7-13 with a 5.26 ERA this season while the Phillies are expected to go with Taijuan Walker and he is 14-5 with a 4.05 ERA this season! Also, Walker has a 3.13 ERA since June 1st while Hill came over to the Padres to start August. He made 5 August appearances (4 starts) and went 0-3 with an 8.50 ERA. I am taking the Phillies here for all the reasons noted above. Also, this tests that above trend that is in a go-against situation for the Padres for 7-0 / 100% this season! 10* PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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09-04-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +7.5 | Top | 41-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats + points vs Toronto Argonauts @ 3:30 ET - This is a double revenge spot for Hamilton as they have lost both meetings with Toronto this season. I like the fact the Tiger-Cats are back on track after a win last week and are a big home dog here catching more than a TD as the current line is 7.5 points at the time of this posting. Hamilton will take advantage of an Argonauts secondary dealing with some injuries. As for the Toronto offense, I know they have been rolling overall but their most recent road game saw them score only 7 points. This is a tough match-up against a Ti-Cats team that is better than their record shows. Look for this one to go down to the wire which means getting more than a TD is a huge value here. 10* HAMILTON + points |
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09-04-23 | Reading v. Cambridge United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #200885: English League One: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Cambridge United vs Reading @ 3 ET - Reading is hungry to get right back up into the Championship League which is right below the Premier League. Of course to do that, even though it is early in the season, they know they need to better on their travels. They will be pushing hard to rectify that here. They are not going to be sitting back and hoping for a draw. Reading will be aggressive. They are also angry because they just got knocked out of the EFL Cup proceedings. So this match has extra importance for a Reading response but, at the same time, Cambridge United has scored 5 goals in its 3 home matches and they will have plenty of confidence on their home pitch here. Cambridge United and Reading each have played 5 matches in League One action and neither has had a draw. That trend holds here the way I see it and is why I am banking on at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Cambridge United |
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09-04-23 | UTA Arad v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #206841: Romania Liga 1 Monday: 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Sepsi vs UTA @ 2:30 ET - Great situation for goals here. UTA is off a huge upset win over FCSB as they won 2-1. They are traveling to Sepsi without their coach here because he is out after a heart procedure (stent). He is fine now and already met with the team prior to them leaving for this trip. The UTA players are surely going to go all out for him here. However, they are at risk of a bit of a letdown defensively after the big upset win over a strong FCSB club. That means it could be another big performance for Sepsi whom beat them 4 to 1 in the most recent meeting. Sepsi is fired up after getting knocked out of the Europa Conference League Qualifiers by a combined 5-4 score in the two matches. Overall, across all competitions, Sepsi has scored at least 1 goal in 9 straight matches and has averaged 2 goals per match during this stretch. Remember that 4-1 beating Sepsi laid on UTA was at Arad so they will be out for revenge and looking to return the favor here at Sfantu Gheorghe. 4 of last 5 UTA matches have totaled at least 3 goals and many signs point to the likelihood that this one will too. 10* OVER 2.5 in Sepsi |
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09-04-23 | Hermannstadt v. Botosani OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1 Monday: 10* Top Play OVER 2 in FC Botosani vs Hermannstadt @ 11:30 AM ET - The value of an over 2 in soccer can be huge. This is particularly true in Romania Liga 1 and the goals have been flying here. However, not all clubs are created equal of course and that is why we are getting the over at just 2 goals here. The fact is both clubs have trended toward lower-scoring matches. Why am I on the over then? Well, FC Botosani just made a coaching change to 43 year old Dan Alexa. Look for the former Romanian football star - who has been coaching in other leagues for years now - to immediately get this club playing hard for him. They are at home here for this one and will be ready to go from the opening minute! However, Hermanndstadt has a history of struggles in visits to Botosani but they have been the better club so far this season and you know they are amped up to put the past disappointments behind them here. So, situationally, this is a solid spot. From a more technical standpoint, note that Botosani has allowed about a goal and a half per match this season. Hermannstadt has seen 5 of last 7 matches total at least 2 goals and 4 of those 5 that did actually totaled 3 or more goals here. Strong odds on a winning over play here as both clubs so hungry for a win and I see each team scoring and then one of the clubs gets the deciding goal for a 2-1 win. 10* OVER 2 in FC Botosani |
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09-03-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +7.5 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +7.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Blue Bombers won big at Saskatchewan 45-27 early this season but the yardage was about equal in that one so the final score was deceiving. Now look at the Bombers road games since then. Winnipeg scored 17 points in next road win then lost roadie in OT then beat league-worst Elks at Edmonton, then won by 1 at Calgary. The point is that, with those types of road results, the Blue Bombers are truly over-priced here the way I see it. Note that Winnipeg is also entering this game off a huge win last week versus Montreal while the Riders got to enjoy a nice bye week last week. The Roughriders have won 3 of last 4 homes games since the home loss to Blue Bombers and the Riders only loss in that stretch was by 2 points. A lot of home dog value here! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +7.5 |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State v. San Jose State OVER 54 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Jose State Spartans vs Oregon State Beavers @ 3:30 ET - This Oregon State team is coming off a very strong season in which the defense really carried them especially late in the season. However, just like last season I expect the defense to struggle a little early on particularly on the road as that was the case last season and they were even stronger personnel-wise. The Beavers still have a solid defense but they lost many of their starters from last year's defense and there is going to be a breaking-in process. If the Spartans were at Corvallis for this one I might have concerns but not at home. This offense will play well again this week and they are in front of their home fans. Yes, the USC defense they faced last week has some question marks but do you realize that the Trojans had only ONE more first down than San Jose State did in that game? My concern with the Spartans, as has been the case in many recent seasons, is I don't trust the defense. Those concerns were proven justified last week as the Trojans rolled up 56 points in the win. However, this Spartans offense can play. They will still lose this game the way I see it but I am predicting the margin of defeat to be around 14 - very close to the number on this game. I am expecting the Spartans to be able to trade scores with the Beavers for much of this game and then eventually down 7 late they give up another TD to lose by 14 or they are down 10 and lose by 17. The point is offense will be the story here. The Beavers offense looks even stronger this season as they have QB DJ Uiagalelei to lead the way and he is coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder and will be out to prove some things. He has a great offensive line in front of him as well as the weapons around him to accomplish the task. He and the Beavers talented skill position players will carve up the Spartans defense. This total opened higher and has dropped to a 54 which means even more value here in a game I project to get into the 60s. 10* OVER the total in San Jose State |
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09-03-23 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #206853: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in U Craiova 1948 vs Farul Constanta @ 2:30 ET - The last 3 meetings between these clubs all have totaled at least 3 goals and the average has been 4 goals. There also is a high-scoring trend taking place right now in Liga 1 and also with these clubs - U Craiova 1948 and Farul. Considering that plus the fact that Farul just got eliminated from Europa Conference League and the defending champs are now fully focused on this league, you have a great set-up here. Farul is off to a disappointing start to the season as the defending champs and they are hungry to get rolling again. Prior to a shutout loss to Helsinki that eliminated them as noted above, Farul had averaged scoring 2 goals per match last 4 matches. They have conceded 1.5 goals per match last 4 matches. U Craiova 1948 has played 7 matches in Liga 1 action so far and 5 of them have totaled at least 4 goals and those 5 matches have averaged 6 goals! These are unheard of numbers and we just need 3 goals to be a winner here and I am looking for each club to score and neither club to settle for a draw. That translates to at least a 2-1 final here. Note that NEITHER club has had a draw yet this season certainly the odds favor at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in U Craiova 1948 |
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09-03-23 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 2:10 ET - I used the over successfully in this match-up Friday and should have come right back with it yesterday but made the mistake of leaving it off my ticket. I will not make the same mistake today! Some of the write-up below includes excerpts from Friday's analytics: The Royals Clarke is essentially an opener and I am not too concerned with who the starting pitchers are in this match-up. Boston's Chris Sale is having a rather rough season and things are not improving of late either as he has been hit rather hard in his last two starts even though he is notching some strikeouts. Also, as bad as the Royals are overall, they do tend to hit better at home and have some big games here. Given the way Sale is going I am suspecting this to be one of those games as well. As for the Red Sox, they should be able to pound a struggling (and one of the league-worst) Royals bullpen. The Boston bullpen, by the way, ranks only in the middle of the pack this season so they have been nothing special. The Royals entered this series off a rare low-scoring home series with the Pirates. Prior to this, 9 of last 12 home games for KC had totaled double digits and now this series has resumed that double digit trending. As for Boston, 14 of last 16 games have totaled double digits in runs and this one should too given the pitching match-up and weather conditions. Looks like a hot afternoon in KC with favorable winds - even if only moderate - for an over. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-03-23 | Phillies -106 v. Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:05 ET - Why is this line a pick'em when the Phillies, who have lost 3 straight, are on the road and Suarez is 2-6 this season while Miley is 7-3 this season? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. Suarez has been rounding back into form and this potent Phillies lineup is a perfect match for pounding the repertoire of pitches that Miley has in his toolbox. This one will be all Philly and they snap the skid here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105 |
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09-03-23 | Manchester United v. Arsenal OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #200157: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Arsenal vs Manchester United @ 11:30 AM ET - Both clubs are off to slower than expected starts this season and that means plenty of motivation here to remain aggressive in searching for the full 3 points in the table. Manchester United is off a 3-2 win but they had to battle back in that one and Arsenal is off a disappointing 2-2 draw. That means both clubs will look to get the upper hand early in this one but also not back down even with a lead. They have each seen, already this season, how important it is to build on a lead and not try to sit back on it. This is particularly true in a match-up in which both clubs are so dangerous on the attack. Arsenal has allowed at least 1 goal in 9 of last 10 home matches but also has scored multiple goals in 9 of last 10 matches as a host! The two matches between these clubs last season each totaled at least 4 goals and I am looking for that again here. Manchester United is dealing with injuries defensively and the hosts will be ready to attack that with the Red Devils knowing then too that their best chance is to win this one with some success on an aggressive counterattack. Looking for a wild one here as the high-scoring trend in Arsenal home matches continuing and a 2-2 draw would not surprise me in the least! Either way, expecting at least 3 but much more likely 4 or more in this one given the situation and recent history. 10* OVER 3 in Arsenal |
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09-03-23 | Aston Villa v. Liverpool OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #200149: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Liverpool vs Aston Villa @ 9 AM ET - Big total but Liverpool is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and scored 3 goals in their only home match thus far. Aston Villa is also scoring well with an average of 2.7 goals scored per match this season. Aston Villa has allowed an average of 3 goals per match away from home this season and Liverpool is allowing an average of 1 goal per match on the young season. Liverpool can score so well at home plus they now benefit from Darwin Nunez flying high after coming off the bench to produce 2 goals in their dramatic come from behind win over Newcastle last week besides being down a man in that 10 on 11 finish. Liverpool will draw off that momentum here but Aston Villa has been red hot including the boosted confidence of an aggregate 8-0 win over Hibernian in continental matters as they dominated both legs of that tie! I don't trust the Liverpool backline but they are potent up front and have a long unbeaten run at Anfield for a reason! Don't be surprised if we see a wild high-scoring affair here that sees each club find the back of the net at least twice. So much potent attacking capability for both sides here plus the hosts continue to deal with goalkeeper injury concerns. 10* OVER 3.5 in Liverpool |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks (+) points vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET in Charlotte, NC - This is a neutral site game and the current dominant line across all sports books as of gameday morning is 2.5 and I am grabbing the dog here. I like the fact the ranked team, North Carolina, is laying such a short number. I also like the way a few of the books I few as sharp are pricing this game. This has me lining up on what I feel is the sharp side which is also heavily based on what I like in terms of the match-up here too of course. The Gamecocks have really responded well under head coach Shane Beamer (yes he is the son of long-time former head coach Frank Beamer). South Carolina is building some continuity here in the program with Beamer and they finished last season very strong and I feel they will carry that momentum right into this season. Their passing attack is a strength now and QB Spencer Rattler is getting more and more comfortable here as he showed late last season. He will lead the way here against a Tar Heels defense that essentially lost their entire secondary from last season so you are talking about new starters here at key positions in the back of the defense. North Carolina had a lot of question marks in the off-season with a lot going on in the transfer portal including all the uncertainty involving the starting QB. Though he eventually decided to stay it says a lot about this program and that it is a bit shaky right now when I look at their coaching and personnel situations. I feel strongly that the Gamecocks are in better shape to hit the ground running early this season. North Carolina should improve as the season goes on but there is a reason this ranked team is hardly favored here in Week 1 and I love the points in this spot. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA |
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09-02-23 | West Virginia v. Penn State OVER 48.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - This total has been dropping and is now all the way down to a 48.5 as of early gameday morning. I love fading line moves like this and feel we have excellent line value here. The Nittany Lions do have a strong defense and I am well aware of this but the Mountaineers games averaged in about the mid-60s last season. West Virginia has a strong offensive line and a solid backfield and could surprise some on offense here. The issue for the Mountaineers is their defense is still a weakness and this is another Neal Brown team that will likely be mired in mediocrity as a result. They should score a few touchdowns here though, even if one is in garbage time but Penn State is a massive favorite for a reason. Yes, the Nittany Lions have a new quarterback but he is highly touted and some even projected he could even be a top choice in the NFL draft at QB in the future. Drew Allar has a lot of talent around him too at the skill positions on this Nittany Lions offense so don't be surprised if they pile it on here as this game goes on. The weather is going to be very pleasant in Happy Valley this evening and the State College crowd should have plenty to cheer about in this one. With only Delaware on deck for PSU, the Lions full focus has been on this game and they should pile up the points here. I am not fond of laying 3 TD lines very often and I am not in this case either but the over is a great way to play a game that could land around 41 to 20 the way I see it! 10* OVER the total in Penn State |
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09-02-23 | BC -3.5 v. Montreal | Top | 34-25 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Saturday BC Lions (-) points @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Both teams off bad losses but if you look at the stats from those games, the Lions were about even statistically while the Als were outgained by a huge margin. Don't let this line, currently BC -3.5 at time of this write-up, fool you. Montreal is heading the wrong way right now and BC is the stronger team right now and more likely to respond big here with a huge win. The Lions are favored by more than a field goal here on the road but it is for a reason. This is the point. Two teams looking to bounce back off a loss but I trust this BC team much more than the Alouettes in this spot. 10* BC Lions |
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09-02-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:40 ET - I know Assad has been pitching well recently for the Cubs but the Reds are quite familiar with him having seen him a couple time last season and a couple times this season. They are at home where they tend to hit better and I like the situational factor here. Generally games in Cincinnati are high-scoring and yet both games yesterday totaled 8 or less runs. I like that factor plus the simple fact the teams are off a double-header yesterday. That means they used extra bullpen in that one. Also, Abbott gets the start for Cincinnati here and he has solid numbers on the season but has been struggling since late July. Dating back to his last start in July, Abbott has a WHIP of nearly 2.00 and, when you are allowing 2 baserunners per inning plus pitching in a ballpark like this one, you can quickly get into trouble. Great American Ballpark is known as a hitter-friendly park and it will be warm weather for this one too. Prior to Game 2 of yesterday's double header, the Cubs last 10 road games had seen them score an average of 6 runs per game and you know the Reds are primed to bounce back here at home at the plate as well. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati |
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09-02-23 | Newcastle United v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #200145: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brighton & Hove vs Newcastle United @ 12:30 ET - Brighton is scoring an average of 3 goals per match in early season action but also has already allowed 2 goals per match in their home matches this season. Newcastle is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and I know they were shutout in their lone road match so far this season but that was against league-best Manchester City and it also played out in very surprising fashion. The scoreboard was not indicative of the play on the field and that happens sometimes but we will not let it fool us here. This Newcastle club has a plenty dangerous attack and Brighton does as well and we should see goals galore here as a result! I like the fact that Newcastle is off a 2-1 loss to Liverpool in which they had the Reds down to 10 men but blew the game. Lesson learned. The visitors will play more aggressively with the lead in the future and so, regardless of the scoreboard situation, Newcastle - whether even, trailing, or in the lead - is going to be relentlessly aggressive in this match the way I see it. Brighton is off a 3-1 loss to West Ham so you know they are going to also bring some extra attack in this match as well after that disappointing home loss! The last two meetings between these clubs averaged 4 goals apiece and 3 of the last 4 have totaled at least 3 goals. Given the situation here, we should see 3 goals and then some in this one! Brighton has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and those matches averaged 4 goals apiece. 10* OVER the total in Brighton |
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09-02-23 | CFR Cluj v. Voluntari OVER 2.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 111 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #206845: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in FC Voluntari vs CFR Cluj @ Noon ET - 6 of last 7 CFR Cluj matches across all competitions have seen them both score and concede a goal. They enter this match off 3-1 and 4-3 wins. Ironically, in their last 4 meetings with FC Voluntari, CFR Cluj has scored wins twice in which they scored 3 and 4 goals respectively. You can see why I am anticipating plenty of scoring here and adding to the value is the fact that FC Voluntari has both scored and conceded in 8 of last 9 matches! Those 9 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece! We only need 3 here to be a winner and you can see why I am projecting at least a 2-1 type of match here in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in FC Voluntari |
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09-02-23 | Fulham v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 105 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200129: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Manchester City vs Fulham @ 10 AM ET - Manchester City is at home and, though they have been winning, they have been playing with fire a bit of late and are in need of a dominating blowout win. I am looking for them to answer that call here at home and they might get this total all by themselves. I look for a very aggressive City club to score at least 3 times on their home pitch but Fulham has been competitive too and is fully capable of scoring at least 1 goal here. They have been successful at getting after aggressive approaches from the opposition by successfully executing on the counter attack. I am expecting that to be the case again here in a 3-1 type match. Fulham has scored at least 1 goal in 4 of last 5 matches. Manchester City has won 17 straight matches at home and has averaged scoring an incredible 3.2 goals per match during this streak! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Manchester City |
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09-01-23 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - The Royals Lyles is having a very rough season and things are not improving of late either. Boston's Paxton has decent season numbers but he has struggled lately. Also, as bad as the Royals are, they do tend to hit better at home and have some big games here. Given the way Paxton is going I am suspecting this to be one of those games as well. As for the Red Sox, they should be able to pound a struggling Lyles and a league-worst Royals bullpen. The Boston bullpen, by the way, ranks only in the middle of the pack this season so they have been nothing special. The Royals are off a rare low-scoring home series with the Pirates. Prior to this, 9 of last 12 home games for KC had totaled double digits and this one should get there too. As for Boston, 12 of last 14 games have totaled double digits in runs and this one should too given the pitching match-up and weather conditions. Looks like a warm night in KC with favorable winds - even if only moderate - for an over. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City |
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09-01-23 | Louisville -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 39-34 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET in Atlanta, Georgia - Technically the Yellow Jackets have the home field edge here but it is a neutral site game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line was originally around 10 and I was hoping we would see it tick down to an even 7 but it has been stuck at 7.5 across the board at the time of this write-up. I feel that is actually a positive sign for us if you will. The fact is the sharp action would come flying in too hard on a 7 and the books are not willing to go there, at least not yet. I say sharp money because the fact is this Louisville team is too strong for Georgia Tech. Look at statistics from last season and it already shows that overall, the Cardinals were already the stronger team. Then when you look at what has transpired with each team in the off-season and the Cards appear much more poised than the Jackets to hit the ground running with strong play this season. Plummer will be the QB and he is off a strong season at Cal and before that was at Purdue where Cardinals head coach Brohm was as well so there is already familiarity for him here working in this offense. This is a great match and their ground game, with Jordan leading the way, will run all over a GT defense that struggles to stop the run. I know Louisville lost quite a bit from the defensive side of the ball but Georgia Tech has a new offensive coordinator and a new QB to run it with King (previously unimpressive at A & M) under center. The Yellow Jackets will have more growing pains than the Cardinals early this season. 10* LOUISVILLE - points |
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09-01-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs -105 @ Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET - Glasnow has been pitching great, as per usual. Quantrill is returning from injury and his final rehabilitation start in AAA went well but he was struggling prior to this in his rehab outings. Lets also not forget that his numbers at the major league level were not good this season either. So the starting pitching edge is definitely with the Rays plus they have the overall team edge. Tampa Bay is 47-21 this season against teams with a losing record. The Guardians are 31-34 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, the Rays are 20-6 this season against teams from the AL Central. Remember that there is a huge divisional edge this season between the East and Central. The run line should be no issue here in a blowout road win. 10* TAMPA BAY -1.5 -105 |
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09-01-23 | West Ham United v. Luton Town OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #200121: English Premier League: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Luton Town vs West Ham United @ 3 ET - Luton Town is so happy to be back in Premier League and, yes, they did drop their first two matches in league action but those were on the road. I am not saying they will win this match at home but I am saying they will be more competitive as they also have the added confidence of coming off a home win here in EFL Cup action on Tuesday. Now it is their EPL home opener and I expect a huge effort from the hosts and a great atmosphere here. This will translate to goals as West Ham United enters this match off to a red hot start to the season and the Hammers will be tough to slow down here. As a result, I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here. Luton Town's last 3 matches across all competitions have all totaled at least 3 goals and have averaged 4 goals apiece. West Ham has seen 8 of last 9 matches across all competitions total at least 3 goals and the average of these 9 matches has been 4 goals apiece. 10* OVER 2.5 in Luton Town |
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09-01-23 | Dinamo Bucuresti v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #206833: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals -125 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 2:30 ET - This one is set up to be a high-scoring battle the way I see it. 5 of last 6 Rapid matches have totaled at least 3 goals and these 6 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece! They are playing with a lot of confidence but Dinamo is starting to play much better as they are getting adjusted to life at the top level again after being promoted from the Liga 2. Dinamo has now gone unbeaten in 4 straight matches and confidence is building. They should be good for at least 1 goal here but, of course, Rapid is heavily favored in this one with good reason. Dinamo has scored 1.5 goals per match last 4 matches. Rapid won the most recent meeting 3-1 and the clubs have both scored and conceded in each of the last 3 meetings. With both clubs playing with a lot of confidence right now plus the fact this is a rivalry match with a huge crowd of fans expected, the atmosphere will be great for this one and the push for goals will be an aggressive one in this match. 10* OVER 2.5 goals -125 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (- points) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game from last season when Utah lost the game late. However, revenge is certainly not the only factor but it certainly does not hurt either! The real value here is because of Utah QB Cameron Rising being out for this game. The key is that the back-up has experience and will be just fine here plus we have seen a line drop from near double digits to now a 4.5 as of gameday morning. The Utes should roll to a big win here as they have much more in the way of returning experience here than the Gators. Also, last season's meeting was in Florida and now this one is in the thin air of Utah and the altitude edge can be a factor for a team like the Gators that hardly ever has to deal with it. For the Utes it certainly is nothing new. I look for the experience edge, home field factor, revenge factor, and line value to all play a role in this one being an ATS victory for us as a win by at least a TD margin is in the cards for the Utes the way I see it. Keep in mind, this line plummeted right past the key number of 7 so the value added is certainly noticeable! Though Cameron Rising is a strong QB the fact is Bryson Barnes has experience already and has a great team around him with which to work and then the other QB option (also could see some snaps) is a guy with dangerous legs! Nate Johnson is a guy loaded with speed and that makes him tough to defend when he is under center as well. 10* UTAH (- points) |
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08-31-23 | Olympiacos v. Cukaricki OVER 2.75 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #224421: Europa League Qualifying, Playoff Round, 2nd Leg: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Cukaricki Belgrade vs Olympiacos Athens @ 2 ET - The first leg was a 3-1 win for Olympiacos. That said, with Cukaricki at home and desperate for scoring here due to the 2-goal deficit I really like the over a lot in this spot. Olympiaco is still favored here on the road for a reason of course yet Cukaricki getting the late goal in the 3-1 loss at least helped save them a glimmer of hope since the 2nd leg is home in Serbia for them. Cukaricki has had 7 straight matches (in Europa Conference League or Europa League Qualifying action) total at least 4 goals! Olympiacos has scored an average of 2.2 goals last 5 matches across all competitions and all of the above is why I would not be surprised to see each club find the back of the net at least 2 times in this one. Even if it does not reach 2-2, certainly looking for at least a 2-1 final here given the situation and the recent level of play for these two clubs. 10* OVER 2.5 in Cukaricki Belgrade |
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08-31-23 | Yankees v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees @ 1:10 ET - The Yankees Schmidt has a 5.25 ERA in road games and a 5.14 ERA in day games this season. I know the Tigers are not a great hitting club but Schmidt is also coming off the longest outing of his career. It was the first time he has had an MLB start in which he went more than 6 innings as he made it into the 7th inning. A lot of times when a guy is off a milestone outing like this they take a quick step back in their next start. Couple that with Schmidt's tendency to not be as sharp in day games or on the road and you have a great situation here. As for the Tigers starter here, Manning has a 5.53 ERA in day games this season. Manning is facing a Yankees team whose confidence is growing again with a little winning streak they have going again. Also, if you look at New York's last 8 games, they had won shutout loss but have scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in the other 7 games. The last 9 Tigers games have seen Tigers go 2-7 and allow 8.3 runs per game! Don't be surprised if we see this one get into double digits and we only need 9 to be a winner here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit |
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08-31-23 | Dinamo Zagreb v. AC Sparta Prague OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Rotation #224409: Europa League Qualifying, Playoff Round, 2nd Leg: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Sparta Prague vs Dinamo Zagreb @ 1 ET - The first leg was a 3-1 for Dinamo. That said, with Sparta at home and desperate for scoring here due to the 2-goal deficit I really like the over a lot in this spot. Sparta is favored for a reason yet Dinamo showed in the first leg how dangerous they are. Also, Dinamo enters this one having scored 18 goals in last 9 matches! Sparta has scored 21 goals in last 9 matches! These are numbers across all competitions and it is why I would not be surprised to see each club find the back of the net at least 2 times in this one. Even if it does not reach 2-2, certainly looking for at least a 2-1 final here given the situation and the recent level of play for these two clubs. 10* OVER 2.5 in Sparta Prague |
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08-30-23 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:40 ET - Yes this total is as high as a 13.5 as of early gameday morning. However, of course it is priced this way for a reason. The weather is very hot in Denver Wednesday and so it will be a warm evening plus in this particular warm weather evening the wind is expected to be blowing out to centerfield at a good clip. Thin air of Denver, warm temperatures, wind blowing out at hitter-friendly Coors Field - all of these factors mean the ball is really going to carry. Couple that with a match-up in which there should be plenty of contact from the hitters and you have a great situation for a slugfest. Note that the Braves won last night's game with only 3 runs scored but they did have 15 hits. Yes, it was an easy under and we lost our play with the over by a mile but I will not hesitate to come right back with it here. Darius Vines is a Braves rookie and seems to have a bright future but this is a tough place to start out your career. No matter the starting pitchers here I do expect the lineups to be the story! But Vines should see action even if he does not start and the Braves go with a different opener. As for the Rockies, they are expected to start Kyle Freeland and he has been getting hit hard again this month just like last month and is having an overall tough season. Now he must face a Braves lineup that is the best in the majors and scoring more runs than any other team. Look for the hot hitting to resume tonight and the Rockies, known for coming up big at the plate at home quite often, do bounce back big here as well. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-30-23 | Rangers v. PSV Eindhoven OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #224237: Champions League | Playoffs | 2nd Leg: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in PSV Eindhoven vs Glasgow Rangers @ 3 ET - The first match was a 2-2 draw. The same thing happened last year between these clubs and then PSV Eindhoven fell 1-0 in the 2nd leg on their home pitch. They certainly do not want to see a repeat of that and, as a result, they will be ultra aggressive on the attack in this one. PSV Eindhoven does absolutely need to do just that because they have injuries to their backline and will be weaker there and of course the club from Glasgow is well aware of this and will also be aggressive on the attack. With both clubs seeming to continue to produce 2 or more goals on a consistent basis, and considering some missed high quality chances in the 1st leg, I am projecting another match between these clubs should get to at least 2-2 in what should be a highly competitive but, in terms of goals, also highly entertaining affair. 10* OVER 3 in PSV Eindhoven |
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08-30-23 | Everton v. Doncaster Rovers OVER 2.75 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #200693: EFL Cup | Second Round: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Doncaster vs Everton @ 2:45 ET - Both these clubs are struggling right now in their respective domestic leagues. Doncaster is in League Two which is below League One and the Championship League and all 3 of these are below the English Premier League where Everton resides. That said, there is quite a talent disparity between these two clubs and Everton is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for a reason. The key here the way I see it - and why I am projecting a 3-1 type match - is that both clubs are likely to be aggressive on the attack to try and erase some of their domestic disappointments so far in their current campaigns. With this match on their home pitch, don't be surprised when Doncaster finds a way to get on the board here. However, Everton has solid attacking options and should pull away for a solid win here. This could end 3-2 however so that is why I am not playing the goal line here. I simply feel much more comfortable expecting a lot of goals in this one. Look for a 3-1 or 3-2 type match here. Doncaster has scored at least 1 goal in 3 straight matches but also has allowed 11 goals in those matches! Everton has both scored and conceded at an average clip of 2 goals in their last 4 matches and there is nothing average about 2-2 and we take advantage of the line value here with this one. 10* OVER 3 in Doncaster |
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08-30-23 | Angels v. Phillies -163 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -163 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -165 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:05 ET - The Phillies remain red hot and the Angels remain ice cold. Not only that the Phillies Sanchez is much better than his record shows as you also tell by his low ERA. That is what is keeping this line lower than you might otherwise expect. Yes it is still a bit of a pricey money line in the -165 range but consider that Detmers is 3-10 this season. Also, Los Angeles enters this game having lost 19 of 26 games while Phillies are going for the sweep and have won 15 of last 20 home games! The hosts are just so hot at the plate right now and also hold the bullpen edge in this match-up as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA -165 |
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08-29-23 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Tuesday MLB 10* OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:40 ET - This total opened at 12.5 and came down to a 12. Yes, this is still a big number but yesterday's 14-4 game a likely sign of things to come in this series. The Braves are the strongest team in all of baseball with the #1 offense too. The Rockies do score decently at home and have averaged 7.4 runs scored in last 7 games at Coors Field. The problem is that this Rockies team can stop no one and has a weak bullpen also. Colorado has allowed an average of 8 runs per game in their last 9 home games. More of the same expected here. Lambert expected to start for the Rockies and, like most Colorado pitchers, his stats are much uglier at home than on the road. Also, facing the red hot Braves will be his toughest test yet. I also expect Atlanta starter Morton to struggle as his breaking stuff simply will not break as well in the thin air of Colorado as it does in normal ballpark locations. That said, look for plenty of runs from both clubs in this one. Atlanta has scored a crazy average of 6.4 runs per game since the All-Star break. Factoring that in with the Coors Field factor and this has the makings of another slugfest. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado |
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08-29-23 | White Sox v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Run Line -1.5 -110 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles Kremer is 12-5 this season while the White Sox Scholtens is 1-6. Also, the Orioles the much better team overall of course and rolled 9-0 yesterday and Scholtens has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Kremer is having a great season and is enjoying a fantastic August after also dominating in July. More of the same here plus a huge bullpen edge. Chicago is 22-51 against teams with a winning record this season. Baltimore has the best record in the AL plus is 19-7 against AL Central teams this year! The Orioles 15 of last 19 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox have seen 17 of last 20 losses by at least a 2-run margin. More of the same expected here. 10* BALTIMORE -1.5 -110 |
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08-29-23 | Maccabi Haifa v. Young Boys Bern OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #224225: Champions League | Playoffs | 2nd Leg: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Young Boys vs Maccabi Haifa @ 3 ET - After a scoreless draw in the 1st Leg of this one you can practically feel what is about to happen here. This will be a completely contrasting style filled with attacking. The first match accomplished nothing and now with everything on the line in terms of hopes of advancing to the next round of Champions League qualifying action, you know both clubs will pull out all the stops here! Much more attacking and much more aggression because both realize that the cautious approach in the first leg benefitted no one. Perhaps it benefitted Young Boys more since now the second leg is on their home pitch but still they know they know there is work to be done! Young Boys had both scored AND conceded in 5 straight matches before that 0-0 match with Maccabi Haifa and those 5 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. We just need 3 here to be a winner. Note that Maccabi Haifa had won 3 straight matches prior to the scoreless draw and the average score of those matches was 3-1 - yes, also averaging 4 goals just like Young Boys recently. More of the same here and I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 -135 in Young Boys |
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08-29-23 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Fulham OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #200625: English Carabao Cup, Second Round: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +110 in Fulham vs Tottenham @ 2:45 ET - The EFL Cup is the least prestigious of the trophy options in English Football but the clubs are still going for it even if they field some different personnel on the pitch than what they are using in their league competitions. A key factor then becomes how a club is playing tactically and, in this case, Tottenham certainly has shown aggression on the attack. I believe they are trying (and succeeding thus far by the way) to prove that they can win matches and score goals even without Harry Kane. The fact is the Hotspur have scored at least 2 goals in 8 straight matches and actually have averaged 3 goals scored in those 8 matches. The fact Fulham gets this match on their home pitch should help them here. 3 of Fulham's last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and this one will too. They have some confidence with a respectable start to the EPL season but Fulham is still prone to giving up goals in bunches. If you look at their last 9 matches across all competitions they managed one clean sheet but allowed an average of 2 goals per match in the other 8 matches. So I am looking for this one to get beyond the 3 goal mark and 4 goals seems like the most likely final the way I see this one playing out. Whether it is 2-2 or 3-1 the fact is both clubs should feature strength on the attack as I trust Fulham at home and I really like the way Tottenham has played both home and away. 10* OVER 3 +110 in Fulham |
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08-28-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres Run Line -1.5 -110 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - For those of you that noticed, yes we just faded the downtrodden Cardinals 3 straight days with the much better team, the Phillies. Here we keep the same angle going as we take the Padres over the Cardinals. Note that St Louis is not just losing games, they are getting dominated. Yesterday the Phillies beat them 3-0 but it could have been much worse as Philadelphia outhit the Cards 11 to 2. The Cardinals have now lost 9 of 11 games and have scored just 12 runs in those 9 defeats - an average of 1.3 runs per loss. They are starting Wainwright whom, as you guys know, I have been fading frequently this season with either overs or playing against him. The fact is his career was already declining but when he finally lost long-time batterymate Molina to retirement that really marked the end for Wainwright as well. This season he is now 3-9 with an 8.61 ERA. Conversely, Blake Snell is pitching some of his best baseball of the year right now and, overall is having a huge season. Snell has a 2.73 ERA this season plus he has been simply unreal truly dating all the way back to late-May! Snell has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 17 starts! That is insane! Making it even more amazing he has allowed just 57 hits in those 17 outings! So about 3 to 4 hits per start and just 1 earned run per start and plus the better team and hotter lineup of the Padres taking advantage of facing the Cardinals here. You don't have to twist my arm here! 10* SAN DIEGO -1.5 -110 |
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08-28-23 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 0-9 | Push | 0 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - No matter the starting pitchers here, both clubs should score plenty of runs here. I love the fact that a strong Orioles team will be hungry to bounce back off a loss while an overall bad White Sox team is actually playing with confidence right now after back to back wins. In a quick look at the starters, Kopech continues to struggle with command and is getting in trouble by issuing far too many walks. As for Rodriguez, he is off a bit of a shaky outing and he actually has an ERA north of 6.00 in his home starts. He could struggle here as the White Sox have scored 6 runs back to back in victories and, overall, Chicago has averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 8 games. The Sox have a very bad bullpen however and it should be noted that, prior to rare B2B wins, Chicago had allowed an average of 9 runs per game in 8 prior games! As for the Orioles, they had won 7 of 8 before yesterday's loss and have scored an average of 7 runs per game in last 7 victories. They will bounce back at the plate here but the visitors will stay hot at the plate also and this one has all the makings of a game that gets into double digits for total runs. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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08-28-23 | Steaua Bucharesti v. UTA Arad OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #206817: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in UTA vs FCSB @ 2:30 ET - I am well aware that FCSB is missing a couple players for this match. However, this club from Bucuresti is one of the deeper clubs in the league and their 5-0 start in the league did not happen by accident. This club has depth and talent and will be dangerous on the road in this one as they are favored with good reason. The fact is that UTA is much better than their record would lead you to believe. They have only 1 win this season but UTA is a tough club and will be particularly tough on their home pitch. I look for them to score at least once here and even if that is all they get it should still should be enough for an over as FCSB likely to get the win and it would be a 2-1 final. No matter how it gets there (I do not like the side here) I am expecting at least 3 goals and honestly a 2-2 draw would not shock me in the least. Note that UTA has allowed 2.7 goals in last 3 losses but did win most recent home match 1-0. I do not see them shutting down FCSB however and the other 3 recent matches for UTA - all losses - each totaled at least 3 goals. The last 3 meetings between these clubs each have totaled at least 3 goals. Also, FCSB enters this match having scored an average of 2 goals per match in Romania Liga 1 action this season. 10* OVER 2.5 in UTA |
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08-28-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #206805: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Hermannstadt vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11:30 AM ET - Coaching change back to their former coach and I expect Universitatea Cluj to rally behind this move. In other words, expect a strong and aggressive effort from the road club here. However, Hermannstadt is happy to be on their home pitch and will be tough to beat here. The fact we get this total available at just 2 goals is a strong value for over players. Hermannstadt has allowed a goal in all 5 matches this season but also scored 2 goals in their most recent home match. Also, the last meeting between these clubs totaled 3 goals. As for Universitatea Cluj, their last 8 matches in Romania Liga 1 action - including all 6 this season - have totaled at least 2 goals. Those 8 matches have averaged totaling 3.5 goals apiece and they have both scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 matches. 10* OVER 2 in Hermannstadt |
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08-27-23 | Texans +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The Texans are the overall younger roster with some key position battles going on. The Saints are a more veteran team and already more established in that regard. Also, Houston just got blasted by 25 points last week while the Saints are off another win and are 2-0 in the preseason. Everything sets up well for the road underdog in this battle to be the more motivated team and I expect some of their key personnel to play a little longer when you look at the Texans and compare to New Orleans. This line was in the 3.5 range and has dropped to a 2.5 and for the books to be willing to move past the key number of 3 you know that they are respecting some of the action the Texans have seen in the betting markets. I expect an outright upset here but we will grab the points just in case. This is the final game of the preseason and there have been plenty of underdog upsets and also the points can prove invaluable when you consider that 12 games already in the preseason have been decided by 2 or less points. Grab the points here in the preseason finale and expect an upset or, at the very least, a game decided by the slimmest of margins. 10* HOUSTON +2.5 |
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08-27-23 | Braves v. Giants OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - The Giants are going with a bullpen game here. Their bullpen has been decent this season but not great of late. Also, the Braves and Giants have faced each other quite a bit recently and that means extra familiarity for the hitters with the bullpen arms they are facing. As for the Braves starter here, Shuster has struggled at the top level of the minors and his MLB numbers are even slightly worse than his AAA numbers. So, the point is, he is likely to get rocked again here and we will take advantage. The Braves have been the best offense in the league this season and are scoring an average of 6.5 runs per game over the past month as they have been red hot. The Giants lineup has struggled this season but facing Shuster will help them and, no matter the pitchers, I like the fact that San Francisco has at least picked things up a bit over the past week and scored an average of 4 runs per game last 7 games. Look for double digits here as this total was set high with good reason so don't let the number scare you away. 10* OVER 9.5 in San Francisco |
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08-27-23 | Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Edmonton Elks vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - The hosts are off their first win of the season. However, this team has also lost 22 straight home games! Edmonton will have some extra confidence from getting that first win of the season and they are getting better QB play of late and can take advantage of a Redblacks team that is struggling against the pass. However, it is no accident that the Elks have lost so many in a row at home and they will struggle to stop an Ottawa team that is fired up after a 1-point loss last week. The Redblacks have post-season hopes too and every win is critical and they should move the ball well here. Nice weather is expected in Edmonton for this one and both teams can really open up the passing attacks here. This one should work into a back and forth battle with plenty of points. The Elks have averaged 26.5 points per game the last two weeks. The Redblacks last 3 games have averaged 58 points and all 3 games totaled more than the number on this game. This one gets there for us! 10* OVER 45.5 in Edmonton |
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08-27-23 | CS U Craiova v. Farul Constanta 1920 OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #206813: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Farul vs Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Universitatea Craiova can move into first place with a win here. But this match is in Constanta. The home pitch for Farul is traditionally kind to them and they are the defending champs. They want the win here for sure as they look to get back on track this season and prevent Universitatea Craiova from moving into first place. From that standpoint, there is a lot of motivation for the hosts here but they also have allowed 2 goals per match this season and Universitatea Craiova is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. There is a reason this total is set at a solid 2.5 as the fact is there should be a lot of scoring. Farul is having troubles defending this season but they will also be hungry on the attack in this match. No club in the 16-club league has allowed fewer goals (2) than Universitatea Craiova has so far this season. That said, this total may surprise you but the reality is this match has 2-1, at least, written all over it. There will be goals in this one! Proud home team defending champs and a visiting club playing some of their best football in a long time. This one will be entertaining. 10* OVER 2.5 in Farul |
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08-27-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 1:35 ET - Drew Rom is a rookie hurler who has not been overly impressive at the minor league level and just got crushed in his MLB debut Monday. Now on Sunday he faces a Phillies team that has been tough and is surging while his Cardinals team is currently struggling and now in last place in their division. Philadelphia is on a 12-5 run in home games and the Cardinals have been trending the other direction and have lost 8 of last 10 games. Value spot to back the home team here on the run line which is available at even money. Aaron Nola is a rock solid starter and is expected to get the call for the Phillies here. Nola has been fantastic at home throughout his career and in almost all his home starts this season he has been quite tough. Look for these long-term trends to continue here. Note also that St Louis is 33-46 versus winning teams. The Phillies are 38-25 at home. 17 of Cardinals last 20 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 14 of last 15 Philly wins have by 2 or more runs. No hesitation in laying the run line here given those numbers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 |
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08-27-23 | Liverpool v. Newcastle United OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #200117: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals -135 in Newcastle United vs Liverpool @ 11:30 AM ET - Newcastle United happy to be back home where they are known for scoring well and that includes their 5-1 win to open up this season. Now, coming off a disappointing loss, look for the hosts to be aggressive to quickly pick up where they left off in week 1 by being aggressive on the attack. Facing a Liverpool club with some shakiness at the backline will help the cause here for the hosts. However, also note that the Reds are off a high-scoring win and they certainly have the talent to come up big on the attack. Liverpool also has a great history of success against Newcastle and has been scoring plenty in recent meetings between these teams. Liverpool could have scored much more in the season opener versus Chelsea that ended 1-1 and their other recent matches across all competitions have reflected their scoring prowess just as the match against the Blues should have reflected the same. That said, don't be surprised if each club gets to 2 goals in this one and don't let the big number on this total scare you. 10* OVER 3 -135 in Newcastle |
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08-27-23 | Aston Villa v. Burnley OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Rotation #200113: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Burnley vs Aston Villa @ 9 AM ET - Like the fact Burnley is at home and rested and ready here with fresh legs. As for Aston Villa they bounced back from a 5-1 drubbing to open the EPL season with a huge 4-0 thrashing in their favor in Week 2. They then parlayed that momentum with a 5-0 win in continental action as well so they are rolling and goals are flying after they hammered Hibernian. That said, Aston Villa can continue to be aggressive here as they have a safe 5-0 edge in that Europa Conference League action. Aston Villa will be focused here and that means we should see plenty of scoring from them again in this one but do note that their top goalie, Emiliano Martinez, is dealing with a minor injury. The hosts will take advantage and I expect them to get on the board but Aston Villa also favored with good reason so I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Burnley |
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08-26-23 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 36.5 | Top | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 36.5 in Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams @ 9 ET - Yes it is only preseason but perhaps a little extra hunger to get into the win column here? Both teams are 0-2 so far and I think you'll see a good push for points here in this one! I also like the fact this is Denver's only home game in the preseason. The weather will be great and, keep in mind, the field goals can be made from extra distance here in the thin air of Denver. Being preseason and not having to be overly concerned with risk of giving the opponent great field position on a long field goal miss, why not try them? Exactly! So you could see some extra field goals made in this one, some excellent field position on misses, and the points are going to add up in this one. The Rams defense got crushed through the air last week and this was after getting destroyed on the ground the week before. The Broncos offense will be able to pick their poison here and the LA defense will be the victim. However, the Rams offense should enjoy success here too as it is not exactly an accident that Denver is 0-2 so far this preseason. So, given a low total and two teams who might be a little extra aggressive in emphasizing scoring opportunities, look for a solid winner here as both teams score well in this one on a nice evening in Colorado. 10* OVER 36.5 in Denver |
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08-26-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - Dakota Hudson is 5-0 this season and is expected to start for the Cardinals in this one and yet Philadelphia is a -200 favorite on the money line. Must be big mistake, right? No, not at all! First off, about Hudson he actually has a rather pedestrian 3.95 ERA this season and he had a 4.45 ERA last season so is not like this guy is a true dominator. Give Hudson some credit for his record for sure but now he faces a Phillies team that has been tough and is surging while his Cardinals team is currently struggling and now in last place in their division. Philadelphia is on an 11-5 run in home games and the Cardinals have been trending the other direction and have lost 7 of last 9 games. Value spot to back the home team here on the run line which is available at even money. Zack Wheeler is a solid starter and is expected to get the call for the Phillies here. Wheeler has a 2.89 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .203 batting average in these 7 starts. St Louis is 33-45 versus winning teams. The Phillies are 37-25 at home. 16 of Cardinals last 19 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 13 of last 14 Philly wins have by 2 or more runs. No hesitation in laying the run line here given those numbers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 |
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08-26-23 | UMass v. New Mexico State -7 | Top | 41-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #302 Saturday CFB 10* New Mexico State Aggies -7 vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Of course the point spread is, and must, be a factor but lets first talk about some facts in terms of straight-up records. UMass has lost 24 straight road games! The Minutemen have covered just 6 times in their last 23 road games. UMass is again projected to be one of the worst teams in the nation. New Mexico State has won 6 of last 7 games including their bowl game last season. This team is really responding well under head coach Jerry Kill and I also like the fact they are at home for this one and want to avoid the slow start they had out of the gate last season. The Aggies are much better than the Minutemen and I also like the fact this line opened up around double digits but has come down to the TD mark. Laying 7 points here is something I am very comfortable with and hopefully the line will stay no higher than 7. Either way, lay it with this one and it would not surprise me if this game got steamed as the day goes along Saturday so note this line could rise back up. A lot of lines do that in football. They'll fall in the days coming into game day and then start moving back toward where they came from when the sharps start rolling in with bigger bets on gameday. The fact is the Aggies have won each of the last two meetings by double digits and I expect a similar result here. They are the more talented and more cohesive group and they have an altitude edge at home also plus this is a long road trip for a bad UMass team. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE -7 |
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08-26-23 | Hamilton v. BC UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER 46.5 in BC Lions vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7 ET - The Tiger-Cats started this season 0-3. While their offense is still struggling often, their defense has been better overall in their last 6 games and they have allowed an average of just 22.7 ppg in these 6 games. The problem for Hamilton is their offense is struggling and now they are at BC and the Lions are off a loss. So you know the BC defense is going to come to play here. If you look at the Ti-Cats last 8 games and eliminate the one outlier, a game in which they scored big at Edmonton, note that the Tiger-Cats scored an average of only 14.6 ppg in the other 7 games. They are about a 10 point dog here and you can see, per the above, why I am anticipating a 24-14 type game here. Amazingly, the Lions have allowed an average of only 9 points in their 4 home games this season! Coming off a loss last week, Hamilton's defense also has plenty of motivation here after giving up 24 points to an Edmonton team that was winless on the season. So look for both defenses to be the story in this one. 10* UNDER 46.5 in BC Lions |
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08-26-23 | Petrolul 52 v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -53.5 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #206997: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 2:45 ET - Both clubs playing with a lot of confidence and off high-scoring wins. Each club undefeated last 3 matches. Dinamo has scored an average of 1.7 goals per match in their 3 matches this month and they are off a 3-2 win last week and have an edge in playing for the 3rd straight week in the Bucuresti metro area! Petrolul Ploiesti has won 3 straight matches and scored an average of 3 goals per match during this hot streak. Petro is off a 4-3 win last week. This is a rivalry between the Red Dogs and the Yellow Wolves and neither club will be willing to settle for a share of the spoils and I also can not envision a match in which one of the clubs does not score. That said, this one has all the makings of at least a 2-1 final the way I see it and we have good value with the over in this one! 10* OVER 2.5 in Dinamo Bucuresti |
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08-26-23 | West Ham United v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 3.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #200105: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Brighton & Hove vs West Ham United @ 12:30 ET - Yes this is a big total but it is set that way for a reason! The fact is that each of these clubs have conceded in each of their first two matches but also each of these teams is scoring extremely well at the other end of the pitch as well. West Ham is averaging 2 goals scored per match and Brighton is, incredibly, double that as they lead the EPL so far with an average of 4 goals scored per match. Not only that, they are at home here so you know they are going to bring their A game for this one and they are playing with so much confidence right now. Both clubs are undefeated so far this season and that can also be dangerous for teams because they can let up a little on the defensive end when they know their attack is capable of bailing them out time and time again. In this case, Brighton will be particularly tough because they are at home but West Ham wants revenge for a 4-0 beating when these clubs last met! Brighton has averaged 3 goals per match in the last 3 meetings between these clubs. Big total but last 14 Brighton matches across all competitions have averaged 4 goals apiece so do not let this big number scare you. As for West Ham, their last 8 matches across all competitions have also averaged 4 goals apiece. 10* OVER 3.5 in Brighton & Hove |
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08-26-23 | Nottingham Forest v. Manchester United OVER 3 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #200089: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest @ 10 AM ET - Manchester United is off a disappointing loss in which their first half was filled with missed opportunities. They will make up for that here on their home pitch where they are so strong. Nottingham Forest enters this one on the back of 2-1 matches in each of first two matches this season - one a victory and one a loss. The goals should keep flying here. Nottingham Forest is putting more of an emphasis on the attack early this season and their manager wants even more from the final third on the pitch. That said, they will be aggressive here but that will play right into Manchester United's hands. Of course the hosts are a big favorite for a reason and I am looking for them to pull away as this one goes on and would not be surprised to see 4 or 5 goals before this match is all wrapped up. Man U should be getting some players back this week too. They will be strong and this is a confident club when at home. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Manchester United |
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08-25-23 | Calgary +10.5 v. Toronto | Top | 31-39 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary +10.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Revenge is overplayed. Yes, this is a revenge game for the Argos after losing at Calgary a few weeks ago. However, even if the Argonauts get revenge it does not mean it will come via a blowout. The Argos are off a bye week but they probably did not even want it. This bye followed a huge 44-31 win and Toronto would have liked to have had a chance to build off the momentum. As for the Stamps, the 20-7 win over the Argos was no fluke. They outgained Toronto by about 100 yards and the Calgary defense was great in that game. Now the Stampeders have lost B2B games since then including losing by just a single point last week so you know they will be fired up to get back on track here. That may not happen but I also do not see them getting blown out in this game either. Take advantage of an over-reaction on this line and grab the big point with the road dog here. 10* CALGARY +10.5 |
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08-25-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -137 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -140 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - Phillies Sanchez has a low ERA and is a much better pitcher than his record shows. Mikolas has been struggling of late for the Cardinals and is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA this month. Remember he also went 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA in June. The Phillies are at home and off an extra innings loss Wednesday and should bounce right back here. Philadelphia was on a 10-4 run in home games before that loss. The Cardinals have been trending the other direction and are off a win but this followed losses in 6 of last 7 games. Value spot to back the home team here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -140 |
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08-25-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Both bullpens rank in the middle of the pack in the majors. As for the expected starters here, both have been struggling so I like the set-up for plenty of runs in this one Friday. Hendricks has a 5.48 ERA this month with opponents hitting .281 against him after he also got hit at a .277 clip last month. Keller has a 5.73 ERA with opponents hitting .326 against him this month and he also went 0-4 with a 6.28 ERA last month. Additionally, the Cubs have won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Pirates 14 of last 17 games have totaled at least 9 runs. Look for totals runs to get to double digits here the way these two clubs are going as the Pirates also have averaged 5.5 runs scored per game in last 11 home games. Based on all of the above you can see why I am anticipating a 6-5 type of affair here. 10* OVER 9 in Pittsburgh |
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08-25-23 | Luton Town v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 50 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #200081: English Premier League OVER 2.5 or 3 in Chelsea vs Luton Town @ 3 ET - Chelsea just got rocked last week and they are still seeking their first win of the season. They have wasted great opportunities in each of their first two matches and now will take advantage of a step down in competition as they face newly promoted Luton Town. The key to the over here is two-fold. Not only will Chelsea be relentless on the attack but note that they are still working in a lot of new faces and prone to mistakes and Luton Town has fresh legs as their match last week was postponed. Don't be surprised if the visitors put some pressure on here and get on the board but, of course, the hosts are a big favorite for a reason and ultimately they will pull away for the victory and that means plenty of goals in this one the way I see it so the value way to play this one is in taking a look at the over here. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Chelsea |
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08-25-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #206809: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in U Craiova 1948 vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 2:30 ET - U Craiova 1948 has had Rapid's number in recent meetings. However, Rapid comes into this one as the much stronger and cohesive club. U Craiova 1948 is going through yet another coaching change after also having one heading into the season. Even with all the turmoil they are at home here and I expect this to lead to goals in this one. That's because the hosts will respond to the coaching change but there is no way I see them slowing down a revenge-minded Rapid club. That said, a 2-1 final is most likely as each club should get on the board but neither club would be content on a draw and a share of the spoils here. Note that U Craiova 1948 has seen 4 of their 6 matches this season total at least 4 goals. Also, 4 of the last 5 matches between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. As for Rapid, 4 of their last 5 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and, going back even further, 8 of last 11 have. 10* OVER 2.5 in U Craiova 1948 |
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08-24-23 | Montreal +9.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes + points at Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - This line is as high as a 9.5 as of game day morning and I love the big points in this spot. Yes Collaros is back for the Blue Bombers at QB but Fajardo is back for the Alouettes. Also, consider what Evans did at QB in the late comeback win at Ottawa last week. Additionally, the Montreal defense has been solid and though the Bombers getting so much attention for being a hot team, the Als have been really hot too. When these teams met in Montreal earlier this season, Winnipeg won 17 to 3 but the yardage in that game was about equal. To me, given all of the above, this is just too many points to give the Alouettes as they are solid defensively and their offense has a boost with the Evans performance and with Fajardo coming back. 10* MONTREAL + points |
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08-24-23 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 -125 in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The basic premise here is teams off games involving a shutout. I like to look for overs when any team is involved that is coming off a shutout win or loss. That is the case here and then the other key of course should include, to an extent, the pitching match-ups and in this case you have a good spot for a play. That is because Berrios often known for struggling more on the road than at home and Gibson has been struggling and has an 8.31 ERA this month and he also had a 6.84 ERA in June so the point is that his best pitching was much earlier this season. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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08-24-23 | A's v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 or 10 in Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:10 ET - The basic premise here is teams off games involving a shutout. I like to look for overs when any team is involved that is coming off a shutout win or loss. That is the case here and then the other key of course should include, to an extent, the pitching match-ups and in this case you have a good spot for a play. That is because Waldichuk and Scholtens are the expected starting pitchers and they have a combined 3-13 record this season. Not only that, Waldichuk has a 7.29 ERA on the road this season and teams are hitting almost .300 against him away from home on the year. As for Scholtens, he is 0-5 with a 4.63 ERA and a .277 BAA in his evening games this season. This match-up also features two of the worst bullpens in the league. 10* OVER 9.5 or 10 in Chicago White Sox |
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08-24-23 | Steelers v. Falcons +5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons + points vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - Currently this line is available as a high as a +5 with the dominant number being +4.5 right now. Simply put, this is a great line value as even a 3 or 4 point loss (both key numbers) would still be a win for Atlanta ATS. Generally speaking, I like fading teams who are off of outright upset wins as an underdog and the Steelers are in that role here. Historically, and Pittsburgh's recent seasons are no exception, teams do not perform well in that role in the preseason. We are getting some extra value here because both of Pittsburgh's wins in this preseason have been by a double digit margin. However, what seems to be ignored here is that the Falcons are allowing an average of only 8 points per game so far in this preseason and Atlanta is undefeated thus far with one win and one tie. No team has allowed fewer points than the Falcons in this preseason plus the Steelers, though undefeated, have allowed twice as many points! I know Pittsburgh has solid depth at QB and this is the final preseason game so depth is important. However, Atlanta also has respectable depth at QB too and I feel the Steelers WR group is very thin on depth too. That said the Falcons absolutely could pull off the upset here and, in my mind, the points are offering a fantastic value here. 10* ATLANTA + points |
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08-24-23 | Ajax Amsterdam v. PFC Ludogorets Razgrad OVER 3 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #224413: Europa League | Qualifying, Playoff Round | 1st Leg: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in PFC Ludogorets Razgrad vs Ajax Amsterdam @ 2 ET - Ajax is a very strong club but they also are dealing with injuries at the goalkeeper position. That said, I am looking for a very high-scoring match here. Ajax has seen 4 of last 5 matches total at least 4 goals. PFC Ludogorets Razgrad has seen 4 of last 5 matches total at least 3 goals and those 4 matches did average 4 goals apiece. This one is in Bulgaria and I expect the hosts to enjoy some success but they will also struggle to stop a solid attack as Ajax has shown good resiliency under new management and they have been able to comeback on clubs too. This is one of those matches where no lead is safe, especially considering the goalie situation of Ajax, and I am expecting this to reach a 2-2 type of final even though each going for the key win of course. Each club will likely be aggressive on the attack here looking to earn the upper hand in the 1st Leg of this playoff round battle. 10* OVER 3 in PFC Ludogorets Razgrad |
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08-24-23 | Aberdeen v. Hacken OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #224409: Europa League | Qualifying, Playoff Round | 1st Leg: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Hacken vs Aberdeen @ 1 ET - The last two meetings between these clubs have averaged 4 goals. The total might seem big but 4 of last 5 Aberdeen matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals. Also, Hacken has seen 4 of last 5 matches total at least 4 goals and those 4 matches averaged 5 goals. So don't be surprised when we see a lot of scoring in this one based on the current trending of these clubs. Each club will likely be aggressive on the attack here looking to earn the upper hand in the 1st Leg of this playoff round battle. 10* OVER 3 in Hacken |
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08-23-23 | Giants v. Phillies -129 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -129 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -130 vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:05 ET - The Phillies Michael Lorenzen (though he recently pitched that amazing no-hitter) has been just shaky enough to keep this line in check. Yes the Phillies right-hander has been a bit "off and on" of late but he has truly been a rock solid add for Philadelphia since they grabbed him from the Tigers earlier this summer. As I mentioned in Monday's write-up, the Giants were 1-12 last 13 road games prior to getting a late win Sunday night. Overall, San Francisco was just 3-10 last 13 games prior to the win at Atlanta. So now, after also losing the first two games of the series, the Giants have continued what has been a steady decline and the Phillies had won 12 of the last 17 home games prior to losing the last two games of their most recent homestand. The Phillies got right back on track with a 10-4 win Monday and then a 4-3 dramatic 9th inning win yesterday at home and should pound the ball again this afternoon. I do like the pitching situation today but, regardless of starting pitching here (action on the pitchers for me as always), this one sets up well for another home team win! Note that the Giants Alex Cobb has been solid at home this season but he has struggled badly on the road. Cobb, away from home, has a 5.08 ERA and a .306 batting average against on the season! Cobb also is winless since the All Star break and he has an ugly 7.59 ERA in his 4 starts this month! Overall, these teams another classic case of hot versus not! 10* PHILADELPHIA -130 |
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08-23-23 | Royals v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:37 ET - In a match-up of the two worst teams in the majors you might be looking for a dearth of runs. However, it should prove to be just the opposite again. The A's are expected to start Adrian Martinez here. Not only has he struggled as a starter at the MLB level, he also had a 5.72 ERA in the minors last season. Believe it or not, the numbers are even worse this season as he is 0-7 with an 8.45 ERA and opponents hitting .360 against him this season. Those are his minor league stats this year so truly unreal numbers! In the majors last season he had a 6.24 ERA as a starter last season and this season he has a 5.85 ERA working out of the bullpen. I really do not care who the starters are here as the KC pen and the Athletics pen are the two worst bullpens in the American League. So there will be runs throughout this contest the way I see it. Because these teams tend to not score a lot of runs and because the Royals Cole Ragans has had some better starts of late, we will likely get a low total to work with here. As a result, I will not hesitate to step in. Ragans has put up some good numbers since moving into the starters role but still he has been hit at a .272 clip this month so he has had some good fortune also - his ERA could easily be higher. Oakland's last 9 games have all totaled at least 8 runs and those 9 games averaged 11 runs apiece. Kansas City has seen 19 of 25 games total at least 8 runs after the first two games of this series were 6-4 and 5-4 Royals losses to continue that trend. Looking for double digits here as these lineups will surprise in this one. The pitching will prove to be that bad especially when these bullpens get involved as they had surprising success last night but lightning will not strike twice in that regard! In other words, expect more late runs in this one today! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-23-23 | Young Boys Bern v. Maccabi Haifa OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #224213: Champions League | Playoffs | 1st Leg: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -140 in Maccabi Haifa vs Young Boys Bern @ 3 ET - Both these clubs are so strong on the attack. I am looking for a 2-2 final here in the 1st of this battle similar to what we saw in the Rangers/Eindhoven battle last night. The value here of just needing a 3 here for a win is a bargain the way I see it - even at the -140 price. Both these clubs have been scoring plenty of goals but also have not been immune to conceding in their own zone as well. Maccabi Haifa is an Israeli powerhouse and will be aggressive on their home pitch here as they enter this match having scored an average of 3.5 goals in the last 8 victories which have been part of a rock solid 8-1 stretch! As for Young Boys Bern, they have been a strength in Switzerland again and are racking up goals. They are undefeated this season with 2 wins and 2 draws thus far in Swiss Super League action and they averaged scoring 2.5 goals per match during this hot start! They have allowed 1.5 goals in these 4 matches. Also, Maccabi Haifa has allowed a goal in 5 straight matches. So the set up here is perfect for at least a 2-1 final as I look for the Young Boys from Bern to also be aggressive here on the road in hopes of stealing a match on the road in the 1st Leg of this battle. 10* OVER 2.5 -140 in Maccabi Haifa |
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08-23-23 | Panathinaikos v. Sporting Braga OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #224217: Champions League | Playoffs | 1st Leg: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -140 in Sporting Braga vs Panathinaikos @ 3 ET - I know the over 2.5 at plus money is very appealing but I prefer the security of the over 2 goals even at a -140 price in case this one lands on two goals. Certainly I am expecting 3 or more as Sporting Braga comes in hot and scoring plenty while Panathinaikos have an edge in that their domestic campaign in Greece has not yet begun so they have been able to fully focus on the continental battles in Europe plus they have the fresher legs here. Of course Sporting Braga has the home pitch edge in this first leg opener and they have been scoring very well both in continental battles and in their early season domestic action in Portugal. Overall, Sporting Braga has scored an average of 3 goals per match their last 4 matches. Panathinaikos has scored 1.8 goals per match last 4 matches and neither club has been shutout in any of its last 5 matches. Look for that trend of each club scoring to continue here in this one! 10* OVER 2 -140 in Sporting Braga |
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08-22-23 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 or 10 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7 ET - Adam Wainwright is off a start versus Mets in which he allowed only 4 hits in 6 innings. Wainwright must be back, right? No! One start does not change everything and he still had only 2 strikeouts in that start and is not really fooling anyone. The fact is Wainwright, and I 100% respect him and his long career, is finished. He is 41 years old and has an 8.56 ERA at home an 8.24 ERA on the road this season. Wainwright has been consistent one could say but that is consistently bad as you can see. Opponents are hitting .362 against him this season and the Pirates can be tough at home. The key there though is Johan Oviedo is on the mound. That means the two starting pitchers for tonight's game have a combined record of 9-21 on the season! Oviedo had been tough to hit at times after the All Star break but the wheels are starting to come off an he continues to have an issue with too many walks. Also, he has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings over his past two starts! The Cardinals got hammered by the Pirates 11-1 last night but they had won 5 of 8 road games prior to this and scored 6 runs per game during this 8-game stretch. However, St Louis has allowed 6 runs per game last 11 road games! Pittsburgh had allowed 6 runs per game last 8 home games prior to the easy win last night. The Pirates have scored 6 runs per game last 8 home games. Given all the above, this game getting to 6-6 at some point would not be a surprise as you can see! Either way I am expecting double digits in this one. 10* OVER 9.5 or 10 in Pittsburgh |
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08-22-23 | Giants v. Phillies -143 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -145 vs San Francisco Giants @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies Taijuan Walker has been just shaky enough to keep this line in check. Yes the Phillies right-hander has been a bit "off and on" of late with some drops in velocity but his full season numbers do not lie AND this is also why he was given extra rest entering this match-up. Not only that, this is a very special situation here. Not only is the Giants Kyle Harrison making his MLB debut - and he struggled in spring training by the way and has not been overly impressive in the minors either - this spot is a unique revenge one for Walker. He had his shortest start of the season against the Giants earlier this season in San Francisco. There was just 1 on and 2 out in that inning when things fell apart. After the Giants loaded the bases, a fly ball to right landed barely fair then a ground ball just barely got by the 2nd baseman and then another one just past the shortstop. Yes some balls were hit hard but, long story short, Walker undeservedly ended up charged with 4 earned runs in less than 1 inning of work! As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up, the Giants were 1-12 last 13 road games prior to getting a late win Sunday night. Overall, San Francisco was just 3-10 last 13 games prior to the win at Atlanta. So the Giants have been on the decline and the Phillies had won 12 of the last 17 home games prior to losing the last two games of their most recent homestand. The Phillies got right back on track yesterday at home and will pound the ball again tonight. I do like the pitching situation tonight as noted above but, regardless of starting pitching here (action on the pitchers for me as always), this one sets up well for another home team win! 10* PHILADELPHIA -145 |
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08-22-23 | PSV Eindhoven v. Rangers OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #224205: Champions League | Playoffs | 1st Leg: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals -115 in Rangers FC vs PSV Eindhoven @ 3 ET - These clubs, ironically, also met last August and the Rangers hung on to win 3-2 on the aggregate and advance. This is a tough Eindhoven club out for revenge and will do everything they can to get the edge on the road in this one. However, Rangers will be tough at home and last year the 1st Leg finished a 2-2 match and I would not be surprised at all to see a repeat. Eindhoven is so strong up front but is dealing with injury concerns on the back line. You know the Rangers will be pumped at home in Glasgow, Scotland and will look to take full advantage of that but this Eindhoven club playing with revenge is going to be tough to stop. This entire set-up should lead to plenty of goals here. The Rangers have scored 2.2 goals per match in their last 9 matches across all competitions. Eindhoven has averaged scoring 2.3 goals per match over their last dozen matches across all competitions. Looking for a 2-2, or at least, 2-1 type of match here. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in Rangers FC |
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08-22-23 | AEK Athens v. Antwerp OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #224291: Champions League | Playoffs | 1st Leg: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Royal Antwerp vs AEK Athens @ 3 ET - Antwerp has injuries at the goalie position and the back line. This is not a good combo when facing an Athens club rolling with confidence after a huge comeback victory. However, the issue for Athens is also a propensity for allowing goals. So, while their attack is confident and should enjoy success here considering the circumstances for Antwerp guarding the cage, the fact is that Athens is going to struggle to stop Antwerp from having success on their home pitch on the attack. The hosts definitely want to get the edge before heading to Athens for the 2nd Leg of this one and I feel strongly that all of the above sets the stage for a very entertaining battle in this one. Also, 5 straight Athens matches have totaled at least 3 goals and Antwerp has scored at least 1 goals in 7 straight matches as a host and has averaged scoring 2.3 goals per match in those 7 on their home pitch. More of the same here. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Royal Antwerp |
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08-21-23 | Royals v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals @ 9:40 ET - In a match-up of the two worst teams in the majors you might be looking for a dearth of runs. However, it should prove to be just the opposite. The A's Blackburn is off his best start of the season so you know what is coming now after the mediocre hurler just threw his gem of the season. As for the Royals, they are going with a bullpen game. Speaking of that, the KC pen and the Athletics pen are the two worst bullpens in the American League. So there will be runs throughout this contest the way I see it. Because these teams tend to not score a lot of runs and because Blackburn is off such a strong start, we get a low total to work with here. As a result, I will not hesitate to step in. Oakland's last 7 games have all totaled at least 8 runs and those 7 games averaged 11 runs apiece. Kansas City has seen 17 of 23 games total at least 8 runs. Looking for double digits here as these teams will surprise in this one. The pitching will prove to be that bad! 10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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08-21-23 | Ravens v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Ravens have won 24 straight preseason games and yet this line is basically a pick'em. This tells me all I need to know here. However, of course we'll give you a little more to chew on with this one! The fact is that neither Lamar Jackson nor Tyler Huntley will see any time at QB in this one for the Ravens. That means Baltimore will only go with their #3 and #4 guys, Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown, in this one. The Ravens barely snuck by the Eagles last week. The Commanders also got a tight win last week but they seem more motivated this season and more cohesive. A lot has changed with this Washington organization recently and this is a different team this season that wants to set a different standard. They have played 2nd fiddle to the Ravens in the Baltimore/DC region for years now. Even though this is only a preseason game, the fact that the Ravens have won 24 in a row actually could give the Commanders a little extra incentive here. They also are going to be giving more playing time to their stronger QB battles than what Baltimore is. Ravens dealing with just a 3/4 battle because they won't risk Jackson this week and because Huntley tweaked something last week so they won't risk him this week either. I don't believe in trap lines per se but I do believe in further analytics when a line looks a little funny to the masses. That is the case here and, in this case, the 24-game winning streak is primed to end! We'll grab the +1.5 just in case it is another 1-point win for the Ravens but look for an outright win for the home team in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +1.5 |
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08-21-23 | Giants v. Phillies -151 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -150 vs San Francisco Giants @ 6:40 ET - This line keeps dropping and it has absolutely fallen into the play range the way I see it! The Phillies are off a 1-run loss to the Nationals last night and should bounce back big here. Keep in mind that game was in Williamsport, PA so it was not much of a road trip for the Phillies to come back from last night. The Giants were in Atlanta yesterday and they got the 4-3 win courtesy a of a run in the top of the 9th. I like the fact SF is off a 1-run win and the Phillies are off a tight 1-run loss yesterday as Philadelphia very nearly rallied for another late win over Washington. Keep in mind the Giants were 1-12 last 13 road games prior to getting that win last night. Overall, San Francisco was just 3-10 last 13 games prior to the win at Atlanta last night. So the Giants have been on the fade and the Phillies had won 12 of last 17 home games prior to losing the last two games of their most recent homestand. The Phillies are also 6-1 last 7 times when off a loss by a 1-run margin. Lastly, the Giants are going with a bullpen game here while the Phillies will have Nola on the mound. Through the years Nola has been great at Citizens Bank Park and this is a key game in a key series. Nola will pitch well and, regardless of starting pitching here (action on the pitchers for me as always), this one sets up well for a home team win! 10* PHILADELPHIA -150 |
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08-21-23 | Arsenal v. Crystal Palace OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #200077: English Premier League: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Crystal Palace vs Arsenal @ 3 ET - Crystal Palace off a 1-0 win but should have had much more. Even against a tough Arsenal club that really took the London Derby matches seriously last season, I do expect Palace to score at least once. However, Arsenal is certainly favored here with good reason and they did score an average of 2 goals per match on the road last season! In other words, you can see why I am fully expecting a 2-1 type match here. Adding to the support for this one is that Arsenal is off a 2-1 win and has scored an average of 2.2 goals in last 4 matches across all competitions. Crystal Palace has scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches across all competitions and has actually averaged 2 goals scored per match during this stretch. Also, the last 5 meetings between these two have averaged 3.6 goals and 4 of the 5 totaled at least 3 goals. This one is set up perfectly to get to at least 3 as well because both clubs are off games where they should have had much more and Arsenal was up 2-0 and took their foot off the gas and it nearly cost them in the 2-1 final so I feel the visitors will force a very aggressive style here as a result. 10* OVER 2.5 in Crystal Palace |
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08-21-23 | CFR Cluj v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #206961: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -120 in Universitatea Cluj vs CFR Cluj @ 2:30 ET - Even though we have to lay some extra juice to have the over 2 goals it is a big value to have the over set at 2 goals in a match in the Romania Liga 1 action. So far this season, 33 of 43 matches have totaled at least 2 goals! Also, all 5 Universitatea Cluj matches so far this season have totaled at least 2 goals. Additionally, prior to a 1-0 loss to FCSB last week, 5 straight CFR Cluj matches across all competitions had totaled at least 2 goals! This is a rivalry match with these two clubs from Cluj certainly not liking one another but that didn't stop goals from being scored last season as the first meeting totaled 3 goals and then the next one topped that at 4 goals! You can see why I am expecting each club to score at least once here and then, in terms of a draw, note that CFR Cluj has had just one this season in four matches. Last season, in the regular season portion of 30 matches, CFR Cluj had just 3 draws. Being a rivalry, neither club wants to just settle for a draw either. You can see why, as a result, I am expecting a 2-1 type of match here. 10* OVER 2 goals -120 in Universitatea Cluj |
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08-21-23 | Hermannstadt v. Sepsi OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #206969: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -115 in Sepsi vs Hermannstadt @ 11:30 AM ET - Even though Sepsi has not been allowing many goals in league action and is off a 1-0 win in Europa Conference League action, that most recent win was preceded by B2B 1-1 draws in Sepsi's last two matches across all competitions. Overall, Sepsi has scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches across all competitions and has averaged 2 goals scored in last 6 matches. That said, the value of a 2 as the posted total on this one is big. I certainly do not expect a rested Hermannstadt club to be complacent here as their match last week was postponed so they have fresh legs for this one and they are off a 1-0 shutout loss that was preceded by B2B wins in which they scored a combined 5 goals. Overall though, Hermannstadt has allowed at least 1 goal in 5 straight matches. So they bounce back on the attack here but also struggle to contain Sepsi. Also note that each of the last 5 matches between these clubs has seen each club score at least 1 goal in every single match and these 5 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. More of the same on tap here given the unique scheduling situation too. 10* OVER 2 goals -115 in Sepsi |
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08-20-23 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Sunday MLB 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -135 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET (game played in Williamsport, PA) - Not really a home game for the Nationals as this one being played in PA and the location favors the Phillies really. In any event, Philadelphia is the much stronger team and off a huge win yesterday. Williams continues to give up a lot of homers for Washington and is struggling bad. Conversely, the Phillies Wheeler has been fantastic since the All-Star break and this long-time solid veteran is holding hitters below a .200 batting average since then. He dominates again here and Williams gets lit up and the Phillies should win big again in this one. Keep in mind, the Phillies bullpen is ranked 2nd in the National League while the Nationals bullpen is ranked dead last in the National League for ERA so far this season. Washington is 12 games under .500 versus teams with a winning record this season while Philadelphia is 10 games over .500 versus teams with a losing record this season. The Nats are a horrific 12-23 in divisional games this season. The Nationals are also 13 games under .500 in night games this season. 45 of 67 Phillies wins have been by a multi-run margin this season and 50 of 68 Nationals losses have been by 2 or more runs this season. More of the same here! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135 |
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08-20-23 | BC v. Saskatchewan +10.5 | Top | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +10.5 vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury situations here. Here are the keys I like in this match-up. The Roughriders off an ugly loss and the Lions are off a blowout win. When these teams met earlier this season at BC, the Riders outgained the Lions but lost the game by a 10 point margin. Additionally, Saskatchewan rarely gets blown out at home and the only time they did this season, versus Winnipeg, they actually outgained the Blue Bombers. So the point is that we have a lot of line value here with a big dog that has proven they can compete with anyone this season yet they have some deceiving final scores on their resume. That said, the additional value from a situational perspective is what has me betting this big home dog with confidence and yes I know that QB Fine is out for this one but just watch what happens in this game ladies and gentlemen! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +10.5 |
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08-20-23 | CSMS Iasi v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 50 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #206989: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -125 in FCSB vs Poli Iasi @ 2:30 ET - FCSB is 4-0 this season and scoring an average of 2 goals per match. Poli Iasi has lost 4 of 5 matches so this is a classic case of hot versus not in this one. Poli Iasi is in the basement of the league standings but at least they have mostly provided entertaining matches for those of us that enjoy a lot of scoring. 3 of last 4 matches have totaled at least 4 goals. Also, if you like historical value, in the last 5 matches between these teams over the past 5 years, all 5 have totaled at least 3 goals and those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same likely here as FCSB should be relentless on their home pitch after they just got knocked out of the Europa Conference League qualifiers. Having struggled in those matches against FC Nordsjaelland, note this did follow a stretch in which they had averaged scoring 2 goals per match their last 6 across all competitions. They will bounce back here but also note that Poli Iasi has scored at least 1 goal in 3 of last 4 matches as they have adjusted to life in the top tier after their promotion for this season. They still lose here but whether it is 2-1 or 3-1 or even a 3-0 shutout, I am expecting at least 3 goals in this one given the hunger of FCSB here. 10* OVER 2.5 -125 in FCSB |
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08-20-23 | Pirates v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:10 ET - As always with my picks, action on the starting pitchers. Not sure if Pirates will start Bido here or if they will use Borucki as an opener. Either way, this will likely turn into a bullpen game for Pittsburgh and that is good news for over players as their pen is not exactly good! As for the Twins, Keuchel is the expected starter and it is bad enough that he is getting hit hard so far in his first two starts. But what is even worse is 4 walks against 0 strikeouts. In today's MLB it is hard not to get some strikeouts! Seriously, with all the free swinging it is just tough. So Keuchel is pitching to contact and he is giving up a lot of hits and it continues here against the Pirates as they build off yesterday's 7-4 win. At the same time, the Twins lineup should bounce right back at home and that sends this one into double digits. 10* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota |