Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -159 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - What a series that just wrapped in Philly in terms of Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment and then a tight, low-scoring win to wrap things up in Game 4. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat here. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one (series opener hosting Arizona) now a PERFECT 9-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Have you looked at this Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to? This lineup is so stacked and so deep! Yes, I think highly of this Diamondbacks club and they are a great team but their facing a tough test here and unlikely to steal Game 1. I feel lower portion of Arizona's lineup is just not quite as strong. As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup in this post-season have included guys like Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh! Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep. This is the back half of the lineup folks! This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home. Yes, Zac Gallen is a fantastic pitcher but, as his stats clearly show, he is much more likely struggle when facing this Phillies team here in Philly than when he faces them in Arizona. Gallen has had some road struggles this season. Zack Wheeler is a great pitcher and I like Philadelphia here at home even though the price is a bit moderate in the -160 range. Wheeler als is supported by a rock solid bullpen and I do feel strongly that Philly has the bullpen edge in this match-up. This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 10 IN A ROW! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA -160 |
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10-16-23 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Detroit Red Wings @ 7:07 ET - The goals have been flying for both of these clubs in terms of both scoring and conceding and I do not see that changing here. Detroit has a lot of young talented players and has really been built up well during their rebuild project in recent seasons including adding some key veteran support entering this season. The Blue Jackets are at home here and will do some damage in the offensive zone. Neither club has been getting stellar goalie work early this season and both clubs are off wins and playing with confidence right now. The Red Wings just won 6-4 and they also scored 3 goals in their season opening loss. The Blue Jackets are off a 5-3 win and allowed 4 goals in their season opener. The fact is that each club has played twice and allowed at least 3 goals in each game. I don't see any reason for that trending to change here and if each team concedes 3 goals again this game has to end with at least a 4-3 final and that puts us in the winners circle with this play! 10* OVER 6.5 in Columbus |
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10-16-23 | Netherlands v. Greece OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #225553: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Greece vs Netherlands @ 2:45 ET - The last 3 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and that includes a 3-0 Netherlands win versus Greece last month. Now Greece is hosting and they should respond here. They have added confidence of B2B wins by a combined score of 7 to 0. I expect them to score at least 1 goal here but, of course, Netherlands is favored for a reason. Greece has won their two home matches in this competition by a combined score of 7 to 1. Again, the competition is now tougher here but they have the confidence and will be on the attack and should enjoy some success. I just do not see them stopping Netherlands however, The visitors in this one have scored an average of 2 goals per match in their last 6 matches across all competitions. Dating back to World Cup action in December, 9 straight Netherlands matches have totaled at least 3 goals (these averaged 4 goals!). I look for this one to make it 10 IN A ROW totaling at least 3 goals. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Greece |
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10-16-23 | Austria v. Azerbaijan OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #225537: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -145 in Azerbaijan vs Austria @ Noon ET - Austria is a huge favorite for a reason but Azerbaijan is known for being tough at home and will not be a pushover here. That is why I am anticipating a 2-1 type match. Azerbaijan has lost the last 3 meetings each by a 3-goal margin and the last two, including one this year, were 4-1 finals which would suit us just fine here as well. Azerbaijan has some added confidence of entering this one off back to back wins and having scored 2 goals in each victory (one was a friendly). So look for the hosts to get on the board here but they will not be able to stop Austria. The visitors have scored an average of 2.3 goals per match in their 6 matches so far in thi group stage. Also, Austria will be very focused here and aggressive on the attack after spotting Belgium a 3-goal lead in their last match and ultimately falling short in the 3-2 final. This is payback time and, even dealing with some injury issues, still plenty of firepower available for some big goal-scoring in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 -145 in Azerbaijan |
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10-15-23 | Giants v. Bills OVER 43.5 | Top | 9-14 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This total has dropped to the 43.5 range. I understand the concern here with the Giants often struggling to score points. However, New York is going to get a surprising boost here with Daniel Jones out. I believe Tyrod Taylor - his 3 biggest seasons here in Buffalo - is going to step up with a big game in place of Jones. Going against his former team and with the Bills defense not looking quite as dominant as usual early this season, Taylor and the Giants are going to surprise some people this week. I know they have issues on the offensive line but also Saquan Barkley is likely to play in this one and I am expecting a huge effort in prime-time action on Sunday. The Giants have certainly struggled badly and faced a brutally tough schedule but they will want to step up here in primetime and finally put forth a positive effort on offense. I do expect that to happen but the issue is that the NYG defense has no chance (the way I see it) to stop a Bills offense that has been one of the best in the league statistically so far this season. The Buffalo offense has been piling up yardage through the air but often has been done in by turnovers. Even with those turnover issues, the Bills have averaged scoring 36 points per game last 4 games. The Giants allowing 30.6 points per game on the season and are in trouble here on defense. But look for NY to get an unexpected spark on offense with Taylor - he wants this and will be highly motivated for a strong game! The Giants are averaging 20 points per game on the road this season but are a 15 point dog here for a reason. How about a 35-20 Bills win per the above stats? That works for me and, either way, I am looking for at least 45 in this one but truly 55 would not surprise me at all! 10* OVER the total in Buffalo |
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10-15-23 | Rangers +123 v. Astros | Top | 2-0 | Win | 123 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Texas Rangers Money Line +123 @ Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - The Astros actually finished 3 games below .500 at home in the regular season this year. The Rangers, of course, playing in their home state too. Not much of a trip to head down to Houston from the Dallas area. That said, I really like Texas to steal a game down here in Houston and get home field advantage. Home field was nothing special for the Astros and they face a tough pitcher here. I know Montgomery struggled in his most recent start but this followed 5 straight stellar outings including his first of this post-season. Montgomery allowed a TOTAL of only TWO earned runs in those FIVE starts! He averaged 7 innings per start also so this was a phenomenal stretch of work and one bad start will not change all that. Montgomery bounces back here and now lets talk about Verlander. He is off a strong start but did get roughed up at home in a few of his post-season starts last year and this Rangers lineup is the better of the two lineups in this match-up. They will surprise here and this reason the money line on the Astros is so low here. Don't let the low line fool you. The odds makers set it this way for a reason. Watch so many pile up on Houston at home here with Verlander on the mound and then fall short. That is my prediction for this one! 10* TEXAS +123 |
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10-15-23 | Lightning v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 -135 in Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:07 ET - Big total here has moved to 7 in a lot of place but this big number is justified. Not only is this a B2B spot for both clubs, but they have goalie concerns in a B2B and both clubs have been scoring well. Since TB used Johannsen yesterday and Vasilevskiy is out, rookie Matt Tomkins could get the start here. Ottawa used Forsberg yesterday so Koprisalo likely to get the call here and he allowed 5 goals in his first start this season. Overall, the Senators first two games have totaled 15 goals and the Bolts first two games have totaled 18 goals. In other words, we should see plenty of goals here! 10* OVER 6.5 -135 in Ottawa |
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10-15-23 | Eagles -6 v. Jets | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) points @ New York Jets @ 4:25 ET - For those of you that did not know, the Jets win at Denver last week was practically like New York winning their Super Bowl for this season. I am kidding but only partially kidding as the fact is there had been a major war of words between Broncos coach Payton and Jets offensive coordinator Hackett. The later had preceded him at Denver as the head coach and Payton made the mistake of criticizing him badly. Hackett, though only the OC, got the game ball after the Jets win over a bad Broncos team in which New York had over 400 yards of offense and scored 31 points. On that note, this is a big-time flat spot for what is still not a good Jets team and we have some 100% angles here that support 5-0 Philadelphia in this spot. The Jets are 0-5 ATS when they are a home dog after a game in which they scored at least 28 points. Also, in terms of historical data, the Eagles are a perfect 7-0 ATS when they face an AFC East opponent that is coming off a win. So this is a double perfect spot favoring the Eagles with those TWO 100% PERFECT trends. Statistically the Jets are not good on either side of the ball yet they have managed B2B covers and have a couple of SU wins on the season. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball and this is a value line at less than a TD. Currently the dominant number is 6.5 as of early gameday morning. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) points |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) points @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This line has moved to as high as 14.5 as of 7 hours before kick-off. This has me in play here because it is not easy to cover big spreads in the NFL. These guys are professionals and they are paid to play the game for a reason. This Panthers defense is actually statistically better than the Dolphins defense on the season when looking at yards. I know the problem in this match-up for Carolina backers is that the offense is certainly worlds better for Miami that it is for the Panthers. However, the Panthers need to protect the ball, play solid defense, create some turnovers, and catch the Dolphins looking ahead to a match-up with 5-0 Philly that is on deck. The fact is if all those things happened we even could see the biggest upset of the season here. I am not banking on that but I honestly do fully expect this game will be decided by a one-score margin. Even if I am wrong, but not by too much, a 2-TD margin here still gets us the cash. I love the big dog in this match-up as the set-up is perfect. The Giants team the Dolphins just beat is decimated by injuries. The Panthers are off another ugly loss but they played better than the final score indicated. Then when you factor in Miami's trip to Philadelphia is on deck while Carolina can go all out with a bye on deck, this is a fantastic match-up for a big dog cover. The Panthers are 14-2 ATS when they are off a road loss to an NFC opponent by a double digit margin. Trust me, that loss at Detroit got Carolina and Frank Reich's attention as they look to right the ship before the bye week. 10* CAROLINA + points |
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10-15-23 | Faroe Islands v. Czech Republic OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #225505: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +110 in Czech Republic vs Faroe Islands @ Noon ET - Faroe Islands are so over-matched and though they have managed to keep most of the final scores respectable, this one shapes up differently. Faroe Islands hosted the first meeting and lost 3-0 to Czech Republic. Now they face an angry host coming off a loss and so Czech Republic will not hesitate to run up the score here. The last time they hosted Faroe Islands they won 5-0 and they had 4 goals in the first half. In the 3-0 win at Faroe Islands they had 2 goals in the first half. Again, they are angry here because of a 3-0 loss to Albania and I know they will be relentless in this match! Should be easy over! 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +110 in Czech Republic |
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10-15-23 | Belarus v. Switzerland OVER 3 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #225509: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -145 in Switzerland vs Belarus @ Noon ET - Getting 3 here is a key number as 8 straight Switzerland matches, including all 6 in this qualifying group stage action, have totaled at least 3 goals! Those 8 matches have averaged 4.3 goals apiece and Switzerland won the reverse fixture with Belarus 5 to 0. With Switzerland's match with Israel canceled, they will have fresh legs here but could some early sloppiness allow Belarus a surprise goal off a Swiss mistake? I am expecting something along those lines and plus the hosts are favored by 2.5 goals on the goal line for a reason. Look for possibly even a 4 to 1 match here but either way, getting this one over the total of 3 goals should not be a problem. I know Belarus has been involved in some low-scoring games of late but that has to do with the competition they have faced. This one will play out quite wide-open with plenty of scoring from the home side as they look for an emphatic win in their quest to punch their ticket to advancement in this qualifying action! 10* Top Play OVER 3 -145 in Switzerland |
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10-14-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina OVER 56.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs Miami-Fl Hurricanes @ 7:30 ET - This total has dropped to as low as 56.5 as of early game day morning and I feel we have excellent line value here in what I anticipate to be a higher-scoring game. The Tar Heels are one of the faster-paced teams in the league based on number of offensive plays per game. Also, the Heels have a solid passing attack. The Hurricanes are expected to have the same potency on offense but were done in by their own mistakes in last week's loss to Georgia Tech. The Canes actually had over 450 yards of offense but had 5 turnovers in the game! That was why they scored only 20 points. They will make up for that here because the UNC defense is over-rated right now. However, I feel the Canes defense, though good, is also over-rated and facing a tough test here with a Tar Heels offense that has been dangerous in recent seasons. North Carolina has scored 31 points or more in all their games this season. The defense has solid numbers but look at the offenses they have faced. That certainly has played a key role. As for the Hurricanes, they should have scored a lot more last week and will make up for that here. Also, the Canes entered that game having scored at least 38 points in all their games this week. Similar to the Heels, strong defensive numbers but look at the offenses they faced in a number of those games. In my strong opinion, we have two solid offenses and two over-rated defenses and we have line value because each team off an under last week as well and I am not saying the defenses are not good but they will both be exposed here by two very talented offenses in perfectly fine weather conditions this evening. 10* OVER the total in North Carolina |
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10-14-23 | UMass +42 v. Penn State | Top | 0-63 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Saturday CFB 10* UMass Minutemen + points @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - I know it may seem tough to take one of the worst teams in FBS football against one of the best in the nation but, as of early game day morning the line on this one is as high as 42 points! There are some keys here that have led to big value here in a game in which I feel the Lions will call off the dogs before running up the score. One of the big keys here that I think people may be overlooking is that rain is in the forecast all day long in State College today. Beaver Stadium in PA will still be packed with fans but the field conditions could get sloppy here. I mean we are not just talking about drizzle or mist, this is supposed to a significant and persistent rainfall. I love having big dogs in ugly weather games and you will rarely see lines bigger than this one. I know UMass is a bad football team but they won their season opener on the road and also have a 2 point road loss under their belts, a 3 point home loss in OT as well, and they had as many first downs as Toledo in their loss to the Rockets last week that was a bit of a "phony" final score. Of course, the Minutemen are nowhere near on the level of Penn State but they have been a bit more competitive this season than what I have seen from them in the past. Also, they have a bye week on deck and certainly will leave it all on the field for this one in terms of their best effort. Speaking of byes, the Nittany Lions are off a bye week after a Big Ten road win at Northwestern and they have a huge game on deck at Ohio State. This is the perfect spot for the Nittany Lions to be a bit complacent early on in this game plus then start thinking about the Buckeyes once they do get up big in this game. They will likely rest their first stringers as this game goes on plus the expected ugly weather conditions will likely make the right choice to be a conservative grind it out second half with a heavy dose of the ground game and just running clock. Note that PSU is 0-4 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .666 and this is another one of those perfect spots for the Lions to be a bit complacent. Also, Penn State has covered just 20% of the time when coming off a game against Northwestern. I like all the edges here, including the weather, to help this game end up being decided in the 20s or maybe 30s at most. 10* MASSACHUSETTS + points |
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10-14-23 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +3 | Top | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys + points vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - In Lance Leipold's first season at Kansas the Jayhawks came to Stillwater, OK and got annihilated 55 to 3. They got major payback last season when they hosted the Cowboys and won 37 to 16. So the home team in the Mike Gundy vs Lance Leipold match-ups is 92 to 19 so far. This one, of course, is not going to be that easy for the hosts but I do think the home team wins and I love the fact we are getting 3 points to work with as home dog OSU is catching a full field goal as of early game day morning. Quick...when is the last time Kansas was a Big 12 road favorite? Stumped? Don't feel bad as it has been more than a DECADE as you have to go back about 14 years to find it! Sure, Kansas is improved and Oklahoma State is down from where they use to be but their ugly home loss to South Alabama was the wake-up call this team needed. The Cowboys have been undervalued since then and got an outright win last week as a double digit home dog to Kansas State! Just like knocking off the Wildcats they can now knock off the same-state Jayhawks as well. Kansas did not win last week's game as easily as the final score would lead you to believe. At least from a stats perspective. Also, their road game before that was an annihilation loss at Texas. Kansas has wins against a lot of bad teams this season. The last two games they have been without their starting QB and he is not expected to start this game either. As for the Cowboys, they seem to have things settling down at the QB position and have added confidence of the much needed win last week. Now they look to get some revenge and this spot is also supported by an 11-0 ATS angle. The last 11 times that OSU has been a dog of less than 7 points against a team that is coming in off a SU win, they have covered the spread all 11 times! This one should make it 12 straight as the Cowboys get revenge for last year's embarrassing loss at Kansas. Gundy has his guys ready and they protect their home turf in this one! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE + points |
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10-14-23 | Serbia v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 130 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #225485: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +130 in Hungary vs Serbia @ 2:45 ET - When these clubs met in Serbia it was a 2-1 Hungary win and all 3 goals were scored before half-time! In other words, this is a bargain total when you consider what these clubs were on pace for the last time they met. This time look for plenty of scoring both in the first half and second half. Serbia's last 4 matches across all competitions have seen an average of 3.5 goals scored and 3 of the 4 totaled 3 goals. Also, Serbia has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches. As for the hosts in this one, Hungary has scored an average of 1.8 goals in their last 5 home matches across all competitions. Also, Hungary looks healthy on the attack and Serbia is having some inconsistency on defense. That said, Serbia is seeking revenge here and this is an important match but Hungary is so strong. In other words, expect at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +135 in Hungary |
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10-14-23 | Flyers +162 v. Senators | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers +160 @ Ottawa Senators @ 1:05 ET - Late breaking play but wanted to see what this line did and this one is all about the line value. Yes the Senators are at home and finished better than the Flyers last season but Philadelphia now has Sean Couturier back and they looked very good in winning their season opener. I know the Sens are a respectable team and likely to finish with a better record than Philly when this season is in the books but the fact is the Flyers are going to ride a wave of positive energy at least early this season before reality sets in. Carter Hart fully capable of another strong start here in goal and the Senators gave up 5 goals in their opener. Yes it was against a tough Hurricanes team but confidence counts for something too and I could see the Sens coming home and struggling a bit in their home opener with the added pressure of wanting badly to win this for their home fans. Conversely, the Flyers ride the wave of positive emotion of their season-opening road win and just carry that right into this game. Philly could surprise some bettors early because the addition of Daniel Briere in management and Keith Jones in hockey operations is going to have a very positive impact on this team. Ride the wave before Philly starts facing some high-quality teams as that is when things will change in a hurry. Ottawa is respectable but they are being given too much credit here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +160 |
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10-13-23 | Stanford +12.5 v. Colorado | Top | 46-43 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 10 ET - This line is around a dozen points as of early gameday morning and I feel it will prove to be too much. Stanford has a new head coach this season and is having some growing pains as expected. However, now they enter this game off a bye week and having had a chance to evaluate everything and make some changes and get ready to attack the rest of the season refreshed a bit both mentally and physically. Colorado, on the other hand, has a bye on deck and they enter this game off a tight win at Arizona State where they won the game by 3 points plus were outgained by 100 yards! The Buffaloes are over-rated because of all the Coach Prime hype. I am not saying they will not win this game but I do not expect them to cover. Note that 3 of the 4 wins Colorado has have come by a margin of 8 points or less and the one by 8 points was a very fortunate OT win over Colorado State. The other key about the Buffs wins is that none of them have come against a team that currently has a winning record this season. Now, as noted above, Stanford has certainly struggled. But one could argue (and rightly so) that the Buffaloes could easily be a 1-win team so far this season just like Stanford. Also, this situation is set up well with the Cardinal coming in off a bye week and catching double digits in points. I know Stanford has been bad this season but the Buffaloes are over-valued and the Cardinal view this game as a big one to jump-start their 2nd half of the season and the lion's share portion of their Pac-12 schedule which remains. The Buffaloes will overlook the Cardinal and this big road dog comes into this one fully ready. An outright upset would not shock me but of course that is still asking a bit much. I will happily grab the big points! 10* STANFORD (+) |
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10-13-23 | Saskatchewan +3.5 v. Calgary | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9:30 ET - Current line on this one is 3.5 points as of early gameday morning. Both teams have struggled but the Stampeders are going to be without their leading WR and leading rusher for this game. Also, I like the fact Saskatchewan is off an ugly home loss to a surging Hamilton team. That has led to line value here. The Roughriders had some meetings heading into this week's contest and the veteran leadership on this team is stepping up for this game. This is a revenge game too. Both match-ups this season have been tight but the Roughriders lost the most recent one at home by 2 points. This will be payback here. Both teams motivated to win as Calgary must win to keep their playoff hopes alive but it is the Riders who can secure a playoff berth with victory here. Even if Saskatchewan falls short of the outright win here, look for the loss to be by 3 or less points. This one could go down to the wire but, in the end, the couple of key guys being out for this game for the Stamps are going to be the difference maker. 10* SASKATCHEWAN + points |
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10-13-23 | Penguins -119 v. Capitals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line -120 @ Washington Capitals @ 7:37 ET - The Penguins have an edge here as they already have a game under their belts. Also, the way that one played out is the kind of loss that gives a team a lot of extra motivation for their next games. Was season opener for the Pens and was home in Pittsburgh and they were hosting a Blackhawks team that many project to be quite bad again this season. The Penguins were up 2-0 and then late 2nd period (never a good time to give up a goal but this is one of the worst times), the Pens allowed a goal. Suddenly the game was 2-1 and sure enough the Blackhawks fed off that momentum in the 3rd period after tying it midway through and then going on to win the game 4-2. This insures a very focused effort from the Penguins and this team has improved much more than the Capitals entering this season. Of course this is still Ovechkin's team and I love the fact that Ovi has been with Washington his entire career and the same for Crosby and Malkin with the Penguins. Nowadays you just don't see that as much and it is good to see. I think the Caps are going to struggle this season though as an inexperienced (from NHL perspective) Carberry the coach now and some new players to work in but some key guys hurting with Pacioretty and Edmundson both out. Look for the Capitals to struggle in first game of new season under new head coach and facing an angry division rival. The Pens/Caps rivalry is a great one and it continues here. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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10-13-23 | Slovakia v. Portugal OVER 3 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #225461: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Portugal vs Slovakia @ 2:45 ET - Portugal on a rampage and I know they have not allowed a goal during the qualifications but Slovakia has been playing respectably and I expect the visitors to get on the board here. But they will struggle, to say the least, to stop Portugal and that leads to at least a 3-1 type match here. Portugal is a heavy favorite with good reason of course and they are a 2-goal favorite on the goal line at some reputable shops. Portugal has scored an average of 4 goals in their 6-0 start to the qualifying and they will be relentless again here plus have excellent depth to be dangerous throughout. I know they won the last match between these clubs only 1-0 but they should have more scoring in that one plus it was at Slovakia. This one sets up much differently and Portugal off a 9-0 win in most recent action! Slovakia off a 3-0 win and has scored 1.6 goals last 5 matches. I expect the hosts to again get on the board here but their hosts will be relentless as they exude scoring confidence after the 9-0 win and they want to now emphatically punch their ticket to clinch advancement here in the qualifiers. There is a reason this line has trended upwards a bit from its opener. Don't let that keep you away from investing here! OVER 3 +105 in Portugal |
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10-13-23 | Azerbaijan v. Estonia OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #225437: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Friday OVER 2 +100 in Estonia vs Azerbaijan @ Noon ET - Estonia is at home here and I expect a much stronger effort here against a weaker foe in a match that they know is a rare winnable match. However, Estonia is still so weak defensively that I can not envision them shutting down Azerbaijan. That said, looking for goals here. Look at the numbers to support taking advantage of this low total set at 2 goals with no juice on the over. Azerbaijan is off a 2-1 win in friendly action but had allowed an average of 3 goals per match in last 4 matches that preceded that. Estonia also has allowed 3 goals in last 5 matches. Each club has scored and conceded in the last two meetings between these clubs and that includes the one this past summer. Look for a 2-1 type match here as the hosts play for pride on their home pitch and the visitors are still pushing for qualification so they want the full 3 points here! OVER 2 +100 in Estonia |
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10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Current line range is 10.5 points and is too much the way I see it! Game on short rest for both teams of course but this favors Denver in my opinion. Chiefs off win but were up in Minnesota and so not only a satisfying but coming off a week that involved travel. Yes the Broncos had to travel to get here of course but is a very short trip from Denver to KC and the Broncos mentality is much different entering this one. Denver is angry off embarrassing home loss to the Jets last week. Denver is now 1-4 this season and they lost 3 fumbles last week in a frustrating defeat. The Broncos will be the ugly dog here that no one wants to back but note that Sean Payton as a head coach has gone 9-3 ATS as a road dog and the last time they were in this role they were blasted by 50 points at Miami so I am quite confident Payton will have his troops ready this go around. Also, Payton's teams have gone 13-3 ATS as a divisional dog. Also, worth noting here is that the Chiefs have the Chargers up next. LA is the only real threat to KC for the division title this season. Could they get caught looking ahead? Keep in mind, the Chiefs are only 1-6 ATS last 7 in divisional games. The Chiefs also have covered just 2 of 8 when facing a team with a winning percentage under .400 so the lookahead theory is evident there too. Additionally, Kansas City has covered just 2 of 13 when coming off a non-conference road game and that was a hard-fought win over the Vikings last week. There is even more ATS stuff on this one from a situational standpoint but I will not bore you with the details. The simple fact is this is too many points to lay on a short week and facing an angry underdog that wants to play much better football this week. The Chiefs still the much better team of course and they find a way to win but I look for this game to be decided by just a 1-score margin as the Broncos put up a helluva fight! 10* DENVER (+) |
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies +131 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 131 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +130 vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:07 ET - What a Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment yesterday. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat there. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one now a PERFECT 8-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons after yesterday's 10-2 win. Have you looked at his Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to? This lineup is so stacked and so deep! Yes, the Braves are a great team but their lineup really drops off after the top guys. As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup yesterday were Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh! Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep. This is the back half of the lineup folks! This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home. Yes, Strider is a fantastic pitcher but facing this Phillies team with a chance to win this series in Philly after the way they were swinging the bats yesterday is going to be a totally different situation than when he faced them in Atlanta. Also, Suarez was solid in his short start at Atlanta earlier in the series. He is a gamer who has been in strong late-season form and is supported by a rock solid bullpen. This is a classic case where starting pitching is given so much weight in the marketplace that the team value going against the market perception is off the charts. Huge home dog value here. This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 9 IN A ROW! Take advantage of the fantastic underdog price being offered here. PHILADELPHIA +130 |
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10-12-23 | Flyers +111 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 111 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers +110 @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:05 ET - Philadelphia made some big changes in the off-season including in the front office and there is a new feeling among the Flyers right now. This team believes they can win now. They are still set to struggle against the better clubs in the NHL for sure but this is a very winnable game for them. They have a coach in Tortorella who is starting to build the team he wants and having guys involved like Briere in management and Jones in hockey operations there is just a new feel here. How did Columbus enter this season? With losing coach Mike Babcock right before the season. What a mess! The Blue Jackets were already set to struggle again this season but things just went from bad to worse in Columbus. The Flyers and Jackets are not playoff teams unless they completely shock the hockey world this season but, I will say this, Philly is in much better early season situation that Columbus. The Flyers get it done in this one. Trust me, there is a reason the Jackets are on home ice but hardly even favored here. Grab the road dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | Top | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - When Dana Holgorsen was coaching West Virginia he left because he could not get the contract he wanted. The Mountaineers certainly could afford to pay him but they just did not want to. They felt he was not worth it and Holgorsen ended up in Houston while Neal Brown took over at West Virginia. The result was that Brown ended up on the hot seat with struggles with the Mountaineers whereas Holgorsen built up to the level of an 11-2 season and bowl win just 2 years ago. They then won their bowl game again last season but it was overall a lackluster campaign compared to the year prior. Now, having struggled some early this season too, this first game after a bye week and first chance against his former team has Holgorsen and his team fired up. They want this game badly. Sometimes bye weeks come at a great time for a team and other times it is bad timing. In this case, the Cougars had been struggling with 3 losses in 4 games since winning their season opener versus UTSA. Conversely, the Mountaineers had surprisingly been rolling with 4 straight wins. That makes this a perfect set up because Houston needed the bye but it was the last thing West Virginia wanted. Think about it too...why is a team that has won 4 straight laying just 3 points against a team that has gone 1-3 last 4 games and struggled in their Big 12 games? Don't fall for the trap here! The Cougars are hungry and at home and their coach will have them ready for this, perhaps, "do or die" game in the eyes of Holgorsen! 10* HOUSTON (+) |
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10-12-23 | Turkey v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #225417: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Croatia vs Turkey @ 2:45 ET - Turkey, with a new manager, will respond here but Croatia is one of the top teams in the world and they are practically unbeatable on home soil. That is why I am projecting a 2-1 type match here. Croatia is off a tight 1-0 win at Armenia but, prior to this, had scored an average of 2.4 goals last 5 matches and that is evening including a scoreless draw with Spain in the UEFA Nations League. If you take that out of the equation, they had averaged 3 goals over this 4-match stretch. This is a big match in the group stage qualifying and Turkey will have some extra energy with the new manager effect. Turkey has seen 18 of last 24 matches total at least 3 goals! They have played 5 matches in this Group Stage and got shutdown by Croatia 2-0 but averaged scoring 2 goals in the other 4 matches. They will "bring it" here in this revenge match but that will open things up for Croatia on the counterattack too. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Croatia |
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10-12-23 | Armenia v. Latvia OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #225401: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Latvia vs Armenia @ Noon ET - The last meeting was 2-1 and I expect at least 3 goals again in the rematch of June's meeting at Armenia. Latvia is at home and desperate to earn some points if even just now playing for pride. Armenia still has much to play for but facing a wounded home dog can be dangerous. I look for Latvia to put up a fight and get on the board but, of course, Armenia is favored for a reason. Look for 2-1 at least here. Armenia lost most recent match 1-0 but that was against a tough Croatia team. Prior to that, Armenia had both scored and conceded in all 5 of their matches in 2023. Those matches averaged 3.6 goals apiece. Latvia is off a 2-0 loss but, prior to this, 4 of their 5 matches this year totaled at least 3 goals and those 5 matches averaged 3.8 goals apiece. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Latvia |
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10-11-23 | Sam Houston State +3.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday Sam Houston State Bearkats (+) @ New Mexico State Aggies @ 9 ET - Handicapping lesson 101. When you see a home team that is 3-3 laying only about a field goal to a team that is 0-5 on the season, it is time to take a close look. In this case, I would almost never play a favorite but would look at that winless dog. In this case, everything checks out for being worthy of a bet. I certainly respect coach Jerry Kill and his Aggies are decent, especially on defense. However, this Bearkats team has played the tougher overall schedule. There is a good reason this game is priced this way. Do not let the line fool you. The Bearkats nearly upset Liberty last week and they should have beaten Jacksonville State the week prior when they led by 8 with under 20 seconds to go! The point is that this team is much better than their 0-5 record would lead you to believe. The Bearkats have been double digit dogs in 4 of their 5 games so that tells you just how tough their schedule has been. Prior to a win over a bad FIU team last week in which the Aggies did not even pull away until the 4th quarter, New Mexico State was just 1-3 SU this season against FBS teams and Sam Houston has had just 1 home game this season while this will be the 4th home game this season for NM St. The point is that there is contrarian line value here with this 0-5 team that is catching 3 points plus the hook as of late morning game day. I am expecting an outright upset here but grabbing the points just in case. SAM HOUSTON STATE (+) |
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10-11-23 | Blackhawks v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 in Boston Bruins vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 7:37 ET - It was difficult for me to pass on opening night of the NHL season yesterday but I held back the urge for "action" because that is what a professional needs to do. I specifically wanted to wait for this match-up because this is the only one Wednesday that involves one of the 6 teams that played in that small slate of 3 games on Tuesday. The set up here could not have worked out any better for an over! The Blackhawks are loaded with confidence after rallying against the Penguins in Pittsburgh for the 4-2 win. The Blackhawks now turn to back up goalie Arvid Soderblom after Petr Mrazek got the start last night. Mrazek is the #1 guy for a reason and Soderblom went 2-10 with a 3.45 ERA last season and now faces a Bruins team that can't wait to get going this season. Yes they lost some key guys from last season's team to retirement and player transactions but the core of this group is still here and remembers getting bounced right away in the playoffs after their epic regular season. Boston most definitely will be ready to go here but this Blackhawks team looked better than expected last night plus earned some confidence and they can score some goals here. Of course the Bruins are a massive money line favorite with good reason and they are -1.5 on the goal line at a pick'em price meaning that a multi-goal win would not be a surprise in the least. That said, I love this over as 6 gets us a push but truly expecting 8 goals here and think we'll see 7 at worst. OVER 6 in Boston |
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10-11-23 | Braves v. Phillies -122 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 5:07 ET - After a crushing loss the Phillies had two bits of good news after letting Game 2 slip away at Atlanta ... actually 3. First off the Phillies got an off day to recuperate yesterday and secondly they are now back home in Philly. Thirdly, the Braves do not even know who their starting pitcher will be and that truly speaks volumes. The Atlanta rotation is just not what it once was. They already used their top two starters and, think about it, they have only played 2 games since the regular season ended a week and a half ago and they still do not know who to start here. Again, this speaks volumes. The Braves could just go with an opener or go with Edler (seemed to wear down late in season). Elder allowed 13 earned runs in 12.1 innings to finish the season. Another option would be to go with young starter AJ Smith-Shawver. However, he is just 20 years old and would be making an appearance on the road in a raucous Philly environment. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat there. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one a PERFECT 7-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Aaron Nola is known for pitching very tough at home throughout his career and showed up big late in the season and in the playoffs against Miami already. He can get the job done again here. PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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10-10-23 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:03 ET - Look for a carry-over from the crazy high-scoring Game 2 in this series. Kremer will struggle in this spot on the road and the Rangers are swinging red hot bats. At the same time, Eovaldi was hit harder than it looked in his post-season start against the Rays last week. That said, we get some line value here because both these starters are solid pitchers with good numbers but these are two very solid lineups and both playing with a lot of confidence after the way Game 2 played out in particular. The hot hitting carries over here and this one should fly over the total. Eovaldi got some key double play balls plus there were a lot of line drives hit against him at Tampa Bay. Hats off to him for still getting the job done but he won't be so fortunate against an Orioles lineup that is more potent than the Rays plus knowing this is a do or die spot for them. Kremer is making his post-season debut and it is on the road and he was a little shaky in a couple of his final starts in the regular season that just wrapped up last month. OVER 9 in Texas |
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10-10-23 | Liberty -6.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday Liberty Flames (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - Two weeks ago the Gamecocks pulled a rabbit out of the hat as -6.5 point favorites on the road at Sam Houston State. Ironically this line also is currently a 6.5 as of late morning Tuesday but this time Jacksonville State is on the other side of it as a home dog. I am laying the points with the road team here. The Gamecocks -6.5 were down 8 to the Bearkats but then scored a TD and 2 point conversion with just seconds left in regulation to force OT. They then got the ball first in OT and scored to take a 7 point lead and, you guessed it, Sam Houston could not answer. Was a miracle cover for the Gamecocks. Then last week they were down 23 to 7 at the half against Middle Tennessee State. Unbelievably Jacksonville State did it again. Not only rallying for the win they made it look even easier than it was as they won 45 to 30. All this has done is given us exceptional line value here because both those teams the Gamecocks beat are nowhere close to the level of this Liberty team. The Flames are undefeated this season and have the much better offense in comparison with the Gamecocks. I know Liberty did not dominate the Bearkats like they should have last week but they were up 21 to 10 at half and started looking ahead to this game. By the way, a few weeks ago Liberty caught FIU off an outright upset win at Connecticut. The Flames proceeded to blast Florida International in a 38 to 6 win. That makes Liberty 5-0 ATS when catching an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog! They now catch Jacksonville State in that same situation with the Gamecocks off an outright upset win at Middle Tennessee! Look for this system to improve to 6-0 ATS as J-St gets blasted! The Flames are on a 31-11 SU run at the FBS level while the Gamecocks are still quite new to this level of football. Do not let the line scare you. The road team should take this in a rout! Lay it! LIBERTY (-) |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders -125 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The current spread on this one is as low as 1.5 as of early game day morning or you also have the option of money line at -125. I am expecting a solid home win here. Why is 1-3 Vegas favored? Think about that for a moment. Yes, Green Bay is coming off a down season but Love has been playing quite well at QB for the Packers and they are a .500 team this season that are only a season removed from producing season after season of solid win totals. Herein lies the key, when a bad team is favored over a team that most would consider to be the better team, it is always for a reason. Of course nothing is fool-proof or 100% but I do like this situation and the line and there actually is a stat on this that is on a 100% ATS run. That is that when the Packers are a dog of 4.5 points or less but facing a team with a losing record, they are 0-7 ATS the last 7 times! Again, like I said above, LV is favored for a reason and yes I am backing a favorite that is only 1-3 SU this season! One thing that helps this week is Jimmy G will be back for the Raiders. They are at home off a loss and I am expecting a strong effort from the hosts here. Also, the Packers are visiting Las Vegas and have a bye week on deck. This is not an easy situation for Green Bay to remain focused. I would not be surprised to see a bit of a sloppy game from the Packers while the Raiders should be razor sharp with focus and also excited to have Jimmy G back under center for this one. Look for the aforementioned ATS trend to make it 8 WINNERS in a row! 10* Las Vegas (-) |
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10-09-23 | Phillies +139 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies +140 @ Atlanta Braves @ 6:07 ET - I have a ton of respect for the Braves and also for Max Fried. However, as I noted on my previously plays about these Phillies they are a very special team and a great club in their own right. Since they decided to use a lot of bullpen in Saturday's Game 1 win, the off day Sunday was very valuable for the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to not need much pen here anyway though because Zack Wheeler had a great season on the road this year and that included a recent gem at Atlanta as well. Again, Fried is tough but Wheeler is just as good and the Phillies are the defending NL champs and playing with a lethal combo of poise and confidence and also are loaded with talent. Atlanta is a great team and many will back them to avoid the 0-2 hole here in this series but this is merely serving to give us even more value with a superb underdog. The Phillies have won 14 of 19 games and the Braves have gone just 8-9 last 17 games. The underdog with a top hurler on the mound is absolutely the value play here. PHILADELPHIA +140 |
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10-09-23 | Cambridge United v. Burton Albion OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #200937: English League One: Monday OVER 2 -160 in Burton Albion vs Cambridge United @ 3 ET - Burton Albion is on a 6-game unbeaten streak plus they are hosting here. With confidence sky-high for the hosts right now, they will make the net ripple here. However, they have conceded 1.4 goals per match this season as well. That coincides well with a Cambridge United club that enjoyed success creating chances but could not finish for goals in their most recent match. That means an even more determined effort here from the visitors and with each club expected to find the back of the net here I like the fact that Burton Albion has only 4 draws in 11 matches and Cambridge United has only a 20% draw rate this season. All signs point to at least a 2-1 final here the way I see it. OVER 2 -160 in Burton Albion |
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10-09-23 | Sepsi v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #206953: Romania Liga 1: Monday OVER 2 -160 in Universitatea Cluj vs Sepsi @ 2 ET - Sepsi has lost 4 straight matches and have had some internal discussions and meetings entering this match. I am certain you are going to see a much stronger effort from the visitors here as a result. However, Universitatea Cluj is the favorite here for a reason and they are averaging about 1.5 goals per match while Sepsi is conceding about 1.5 goals per match on the season. I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. 4 straight Sepsi matches have totaled at least 3 goals and they have actually allowed an average of 3 goals per match during this stretch! They also, prior to a 3-0 shutout in most recent match, scored at least 1 goal in 14 straight matches across all competitions. Sepsi averaged 1.64 goals scored in those 14 matches and they will be ready to respond here. However, Universitatea Cluj has only 2 losses last 9 matches and has averaged 1.67 goals scored per match during this stretch. You can see, per all of the above, why I am projecting at least a 2-1 final in this one! OVER 2 -160 in Universitatea Cluj |
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10-09-23 | Ottawa +6.5 v. Montreal | Top | 3-29 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
CFL Monday Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 1 ET - Rivalry game. Great value here with the big points on Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Ottawa just lost badly to Montreal at home last week but look at the stats from that game and you will quickly realize the loss was a turnover-fueled defeat. The Redblacks actually outgained the Alouettes by a substantial margin in that game. Also, Ottawa still has hopes of a post-season berth so they will still being going hard here. The Als already clinched their post-season berth and are only in a battle now with Hamilton for positioning but that is not a key motivator. I believe the road dog will prove to be the much hungrier team and will be out for revenge after the embarrassing loss in last week's meeting at home. Payback time here and an outright upset would not surprise me in the last. Current line as of 6 hours before kickoff is in the 6.5 range and that is a great value. OTTAWA (+) |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The NFL is the most publicly bet sport worldwide. When public money is involved the public teams get more attention. There are many Cowboys fans out there and they love their 'Boys. That serves us well in cases like this. Take a look at this current line being very nearly just a field goal as of game day morning. That implies that on a neutral field this would be anybody's game. I completely disagree with that assessment. Dallas finally won a road playoff game last season for the first time in a very long time. The fact is the Cowboys often are great at hammering bad teams and inflating their stats in those games but then struggling against quality opponents. It has been this way for many years and has not really shown any signs of changing. Consider this also when assessing whether these teams are equal. Who would you rather have coaching your team? Shanahan or McCarthy? How about QB? Big-game mistake prone Prescott or up and coming Purdy who is off to a phenomenal start this season. The Niners are arguably the best run NFL organization. This team has done things the right way and is running a solid ship. Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great! The Niners are built to be a much better big-game team and, in fact, there is another key stat that supports that as well as supporting our play here. The Niners are 7-0 ATS in last 7 home games against an NFC opponent with a winning record. Keep in mind the 3-1 Cowboys have revenge here but they had that last year too when they faced the Niners in the playoffs after losing to them in the post-season before that too. Yes, that was the 2nd straight season that ended for Dallas in the post-season at San Francisco. Revenge is often over-played and the Cowboys could not get their revenge then and they will not get it now. Dallas overlooked Arizona two weeks ago and lost there. The Cowboys 3 wins are against teams that currently have a combined 3-9 record this season. At least the Niners have beaten a couple teams that have a .500 record so far this season plus they hammered the same Cardinals team the Cowboys overlooked. This is the difference of a well-run professional organization compared to a team that does not have the same leadership from top to bottom. This is a value line for the home team in my opinion. Lay it! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) |
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10-08-23 | Eagles -3.5 v. Rams | Top | 23-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:05 ET - The Rams won the Super Bowl in February of 2022. Then they went 5-12 in the 2022 season that followed that. Which team is LA this season? Well it is still a little too early to tell for sure but Los Angeles certainly is not at the level of the Super Bowl team. I know Cooper Kupp is back this week for the Rams but he may not be performing at his typical elite level in his first game back. Both teams have some injury issues but Rams hip injuries to Matthew Stafford plus their starting RB could keep those guys from being as strong as usual. If you look at the week 1 stats when the Rams beat the Seahawks you will know that the result was not commensurate with the stats. Other than LA has two losses, including to a struggling Bengals team, and an OT win last week over the Colts in which the Rams blew a huge lead. I just do not think this Rams team is on the level this Eagles team is. Philly is on a mission to get back to the Super Bowl and to win it this time. They have a road game on deck in New York but against the Jets rather than the long-time rival (but struggling) Giants. That said, there is clearly no lookahead here and I expect a very focused Eagles team to come out and dominate in the trenches in this one. Yes I know Fletcher Cox is out for Philly but they have more defensive line depth than they use to. Eagles off an OT win versus Washington in which they gave up a late score to the Commanders that forced OT. That was only a 3-point win but 16 of 18 wins before that came by 5 or more points for the Eagles. In other words, if you like them to win here you can also see why you can feel comfortable laying the current number of 4 points too. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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10-08-23 | CFR Cluj v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #206973: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -110 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs CFR Cluj @ 2:30 ET - It has been a frustrating start to the season for Dinamo after being promoted for this campaign. Their manager did get a vote of confidence from upper management entering this match and they are at home in Bucuresti for this one. So perhaps they finally get it going and I do expect at least 1 goal. The problem for Dinamo is they will not be able stop one of the best clubs in the league here. CFR Cluj is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and they will stay hot here against a struggling Dinamo backline. Dinamo has allowed an average of 2 goals per match this season and is showing no real signs of turning that around. CFR Cluj has allowed goals consistently when on the road and that includes an average of 2 goals per match last 4. We could see plenty of scoring here given all of the above and the situation is ideal for a high-scoring affair here! 10* OVER 2.5 -110 in Dinamo Bucuresti |
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10-08-23 | Ravens -4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens -4.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - We get some line value here because the Steelers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings but this year Pittsburgh is way down in my opinion. I know they are 2-2 on the year but their stats tell the real story. The Steelers do not run or throw well. They also do not defend the pass well and do not stop the run. The Ravens have edges all over the field in this one. They also have revenge on their minds from losing the most recent meeting late last season. Remember that Lamar Jackson was hurt last season and missed BOTH meetings with the Steelers. Look for the Pittsburgh defense to struggle with him in this one! The Ravens have great numbers on defense so far this season and big rushing numbers on offense. That is a combination that can win plenty of road games and especially when Harbaugh is your coach and your QB is healthy! The Steelers were very fortunate to beat the Browns (just look at the stats from that one) and their other win was against a dysfunctional Raiders team. Now they face a Ravens team with which coach Harbaugh has produced only one losing season in his 15-year tenure! Steelers QB Pickett expected to play but could be running for his life with this one and they are still without a starting WR plus now lost their starting TE to injury! 10* BALTIMORE -4.5 |
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10-08-23 | Manchester City v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #200161: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -110 in Arsenal vs Manchester City @ 11:30 AM ET - With Rodri and De Bruyne still out for Manchester City for this one, we get some line value as this total is lower than it would otherwise be. This is a huge match and I expect Saka to play for Arsenal. The hosts have been giving up goals at home this season but also scoring well overall. That includes as a host and that is why Arsenal home matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Manchester City is allowing 1 goal per match on the road this season but they are scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match overall this season. I just can not see this match finishing with anything less than a 2-1 final. A clean sheet is unlikely plus Man City has no draws in 7 matches this season and Arsenal has 2 draws in 7 matches this season. That is a combined very law draw rate of 2 of 14 or 14% and adds to the odds that this match sees at least a 2-1 final. 10* OVER 2.5 in Arsenal |
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10-08-23 | Jaguars v. Bills -4.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET in London, UK -Current line as of about 4 hours before kick-off is a 4.5 and this is a great value. Buffalo got their wake up call early this season as they already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders the next week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not looking back and certainly showing they are not done yet because they have now won 3 straight games and scored more than 35 points in each win! Buffalo did it again last week with a huge victory over Miami and the Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road in London. In fact, note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won eight in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. That trend continues here as Jacksonville is over-rated in my opinion. Yes they have an edge here in that they were already in London for this games as the knocked off the Falcons here last week. However, the yardage was roughly equal in that game and Atlanta actually had more first downs in the game but were done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. We get line value here because of the scheduling situation seeming to so strongly favor the Jags. I might argue that Jacksonville having now been in London for so long that it could even be a distraction for them in preparations for this game. Plus the Bills have been one of the top teams in the NFL in recent seasons. The Jaguars had some good fortune last season but this team is still not on the Bills level and that 8-0 ATS situation I mentioned above will turn into 9-0 ATS here! 10* BUFFALO (-) |
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10-08-23 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Otelul OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Rotation #206965: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -150 in Otelul Galati vs Farul @ 9 AM ET - Otelul Galati has scored an average of 1.4 goals last 5 matches and scored at least 1 goal in 4 of those 5 matches. Farul is off B2B wins and has scored 2 goals in each. The defending champs are rounding back into form while Otelul Galati also seems to be finally getting adjusted to being back in the top flight league in Romania again after their promotion this past spring. That said, and with Otelul Galati hosting this one, I expect solid scoring. The visitors are favored with good reason but the hosts likely to get on the board. Look for at least a 2-1 final here. Farul has 0 draws in 10 matches this season so the odds favor this one finding its way to at least 2-1 the way I see it. 10* OVER 2 -150 in Otelul Galati |
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10-08-23 | Liverpool v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 3.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #200149: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in Brighton & Hove vs Liverpool @ 9 AM ET - Big total here but fully justified. Brighton & Hove have allowed 2 goals per match this season while Liverpool is allowing 1.3 goals per match on the road this season. Now lets talk about all the firepower here and that is why you can tick up those averages a bit and expect 4 or 5 goals here. Brighton has scored an average of 3 goals per match this season on their home pitch and Liverpool is scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match this season. Both clubs coming off matches in international action where they each scored 2 goals. However, Liverpool is still angry about their most recent league match in which they felt done in by officiating mistakes. That was a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Tottenham. Liverpool then rested some guys in their Europa League match that followed but they should be at full strength for this match and had been piling up goals! This total at 3.5 might seem big but note that Liverpool had seen 11 of 14 matches total at least 4 goals prior to that 2-1 loss to Tottenham. As for Brighton, their Europa League match was a 2-2 draw and the trend of 4 or more goals continues as all 7 matches for Brighton this season have totaled at least 4 goals in league action. So we are testing a situation here that is 7-0 / 100% this season. 10* OVER 3.5 in Brighton & Hove |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky v. Georgia -14.5 | Top | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
NCAAF Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - Kentucky just beat Florida and they are 5-0 SU this season and 4-0 ATS against FBS foes as their only non-cover was against an FCS school. Also, the Wildcats 4-0 ATS last 4 against Georgia. The Bulldogs enter this game 0-4-1 ATS on the season. So all of these perfect angles favor a play on the big dog Cats in this one and yet I am on the Dawgs! The fact is this line is 14.5 (as of game day morning) for a reason! Why would a game involving two ranked teams have one team laying more than 2 touchdowns? Exactly! The odds makers know what they are doing folks and I am expecting an absolute blowout home win here. Georgia has not been as impressive early this season and that is why they are still seeking first ATS win. However, this does not change the fact they are undefeated SU and national champs, etc. Also, the only team that Kentucky has faced this season that had a winning record last season was the FCS school Eastern Kentucky and they were only 7-5 this season. Yes beating Florida last week was big for the Wildcats but the Gators are not what they were a few years back. Also, Kentucky ran all over the Gators but the Bulldogs won't allow that here in their house. This will force the Wildcats to pass and their passing attack is still suspect. There are a number of injury concerns for Kentucky entering this one as well. So, analyzing all the variables here, I am fully expecting a blowout win and have no hesitation in facing the triple perfect trends ATS that are noted above. 10* GEORGIA (-) |
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10-07-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - Strider has been great for the Braves and there is no questioning that. However, just like last season, there is something special going on in Philly and they really believe they can again go all the way to the World Series. Suarez is under-rated as he is a pitcher that is much better than his record shows. That said, getting 1.5 runs here at a pick'em price is a solid bargain. It is not that this game is priced wrong, it is just that this what the markets demand and the fact is that means line value with the Phillies. Philadelphia won their two wild card games against Miami by a combined score of 11 to 2. They have won 13 of 19 games and only 2 of their last 19 games have resulted in a loss by a margin of 2 or more runs. Strider has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and allowed an average of 4 earned runs in those 4 outings! Suarez had a bad final outing of the season but had been running solid prior to that including entering this start having allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in last 3 road starts. Phillies hang around in this one and might even steal Game one of this series this evening. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -115 |
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA OVER 59.5 | Top | 17-25 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UCLA Bruins vs Washington State Cougars @ 3 ET - This total has dropped a lot from the upper 60s where it once was. It is now as low as a 59 as of early gameday morning and I do understand the line move. UCLA is coming off a horrible effort on offense at Utah prior to their bye week AND the Bruins have a defense that ranks as one of the most efficient in the nation thus far. They have been stingy on opponents for sure but this is an early season key in evaluating stats and that is look at who UCLA has played. They finally faced a tough foe in Utah but the Utes were still without QB Cam Rising and have been playing very conservative without him. The Bruins other games were against an FSC school, a SBC team that is struggling early this season, and a Mountain West team known for struggling to score points! This UCLA defense is set up perfectly to get lit up by a very talented Washington State offense. Not only are the Cougars undefeated this season, their offense is now a different animal under Ben Arbuckle. He is their offensive coordinator after helping the Hilltoppers light it up last season in the same role at Western Kentucky. The Cougars are scoring an average of 46 points per game so far this season and off a high-scoring win over a tough Oregon State team before their bye last week. The Washington State defense is not strong and UCLA will bounce back at home as they had been scoring well prior to the trip to Utah and their young QB much more comfortable at home. So the Bruins get their points here but their defense is facing a tough offense for the first time this season and will be exposed as the Cougars pile up big points! I am expecting a back and forth shootout here! 10* OVER the total in UCLA |
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10-07-23 | Steaua Bucharesti v. Botosani OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #206957: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in FC Botosani vs FCSB @ 2:30 ET - The last 5 matches for FC Botosani have seen 4 of them total at least 4 goals! The high-scoring trending should continue here as FC Botosani has both scored and conceded in each of last 5 matches! Also, 3 of their last 5 meetings with FCSB have totaled at least 4 goals! We only need 3 to be a winner here and this is a match-up of first place versus last place so you know FCSB should blast them here. Couple that with the fact FC Botosani has scored a goal in 5 straight matches and you can see why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final in this one! 6 of last 7 matches for FCSB have totaled at least 3 goals and those 6 matches actually averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same on tap in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 in FC Botosani |
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10-07-23 | Nottingham Forest v. Crystal Palace OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #200145: English Premier League Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -125 in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest @ 12:30 ET - Getting a 2 here is a great line value and I will not hesitate to get involved. I know both of these clubs have been known for lower-scoring matches but this total is just too low. We only need 2 goals for a push and I am forecasting at least 3 goals here. Nottingham Forest has allowed at least 1 goal in 7 of last 8 matches. Only 1 of those 7 failed to get to at least the 2-goal mark. Crystal Palace is buoyed in confidence by a 1-0 win over Manchester United in most recent match but this was preceded by a stretch of allowing multiple goals in 4 of 5 matches across all competitions. Those 4 matches averaged 4.5 goals apiece and I look for at least a 2-1 final here given all of the above. You can see why each club can be expected to concede at least once here and, yes I am aware of the injury to Eberechi Eze for Crystal Palace, note that Crystal Palace has had only 1 draw in last 6 matches across all competitions. Nottingham Forest has seen 6 of their 7 matches in EPL action total at least 2 goals and those matches averaged 3 goals! Looking for at least a 2-1 final here as each club has only 2 draws so far this season and this one will not see either one want to settle for a share of the spoils here. 10* OVER 2 -125 in Crystal Palace |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +5.5 v. Texas | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
NCAAF Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET @ Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas - Current line, as of about 6 hours before kick off is a solid 5.5 and this is a huge revenge game for the Sooners. I know revenge is overplayed but this is not just any revenge game. That's because these teams have been meeting for over 100 years! You read that right, they meet each other every year in the Red River Rivalry in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and this neutral site game is a big deal for these two schools. Before last year's shellacking, each of the most recent 4 meetings had been decided by 8 or less points. I expect another tighter game here in this year's match-up but sense an upset. We'll grab the points as added insurance but Oklahoma and Texas off to great starts this season but the Sooners - unlike in their first year under Venable last season - are a very confident bunch this time around. Texas won 49 to 0 last season! You read that right...49 to 0 and it was complete domination. Yes, Ewers has been great at QB for the Longhorns but Gabriel (missed last season's game due to injury) has also been fantastic this season for the Sooners. Gabriel will make up for missing last year's game and OU will make up for getting blown out. Texas has not won B2B games in the Red River Rivalry since 2008/2009 and that win in '09 was by just 3 points. The last time the Longhorns won B2B games in the RRR and would have covered a spread of 5.5 was when they won the 2005/2006 match-ups. So yes it has been over 15 years! I like the odds when you consider those facts and though I think UT deserves the hype they are getting early this season, I also feel that OU is on a mission this year and they are much better than the markets are giving them credit for here. Give me the big points! 10* OKLAHOMA (+) points |
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10-07-23 | CS U Craiova v. Voluntari OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #206961: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in FC Voluntari vs Universitatea Craiova @ 11:45 AM ET - FC Voluntari off a scoreless draw with UTA Arad but, as noted in my free pick write-up from earlier today, UTA Arad has continued to trend under in matches of late. As for FC Voluntari, things should return to normal here. Prior to that scoreless draw, they had seen 11 of last 12 matches total at least 3 goals. Those dozen matches averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same on the way here. Universitatea Craiova is off a 5-1 victory and that was the 5th match out of last 7 for Universitatea Craiova which had totaled at least 3 goals. Those 5 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. I love the odds on this one getting to 3 goals and feel we should see at least that here. 10* OVER 2.5 in FC Voluntari |
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10-07-23 | Brentford v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #200141: English Premier League Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Manchester United vs Brentford @ 10 AM ET - Both clubs have been questionable defensively and this sets up a great spot for at least 3 goals here. Manchester United has seen 6 of last 8 matches across all competitions total at least 3 goals. Those 6 matches averaged nearly 5 goals apiece and there is certainly nothing average about that. Coming off B2B losses in Champions League and EPL action, the hosts will be ready to go here but I expect Brentford to be aggressive on the attack in this one as well. The Bees lost here 1-0 in the most recent meeting but this followed 4 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals between these clubs! Also, Brentford is off a 1-1 draw in EPL action but this followed 4 of first 6 matches this season in EPL having totaled at least 3 goals and this one resumes that trending as both teams chomping at the bit to score goals in this one! 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Manchester United |
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10-06-23 | Winnipeg +2 v. BC | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ BC Lions @ 10 PM ET - If you took the home team in Winnipeg's last 8 games you are a PERFECT 8-0 ATS! So why am I taking the road team here? Well, for starters I am a contrarian. However, the big key here is that I like the way the Winnipeg defense has played as the season has worn on compared to the Lions defense. The BC defense started the season strong but has faded. Also, the Blue Bombers have a fantastic offensive line. So Winnipeg should be able to get their strong ground game going here which opens up the passing attack on offense. Also, the Bombers defense is a strength so, even though BC certainly has a solid offense, Winnipeg can get enough stops here to win this game on the road. There is a reason that a revenge-minded home favorite is practically a pick here (current line of 2 or 2.5 at best here) even though the host has lost only 1 game at home this season and the road team has gone just 4-3 SU away from home this season. Don't let the line fool you. That 8-0 ATS run I mentioned above comes to an end here. This is a battle for first place in the division and we are nearing the post-season so this game is critical. Grab any points you can with the road dog here! 10* WINNIPEG (+) |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Illinois Illini (-) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I was on Nebraska earlier this season when they scored just 14 points at Colorado. Yes that is the over-hyped Buffaloes that are not very good defensively. In the Buffs other 4 games against teams not named Nebraska they allowed an average of 42 points per game! Again, the Cornhuskers put up a measly 14 points. Here lies the problem with this 2-3 Huskers team is that they only scored decently in two wins over two very bad teams. Louisiana Tech lost again last night and only had 3 wins in each of the last two seasons. Also, Northern Illinois is just 1-4 this season. Those are the Huskers two wins. In their other 3 games this season they have scored an average of just 10 points. Yes one of those games was Michigan (last week) but what the hell happened in the other games? Exactly! Not a whole helluva lot! I am not big on Illinois this year but they are home laying just 3.5 points (as of early game day morning) and this is as much a play against the Huskers as it is a play on the Illini. Note that Illinois has faced Penn State and Kansas this season and those two teams are a combined 9-1 on the year with the Jayhawks only loss coming to undefeated Texas. So the point is that the Illini might be a little better than their record shows and they are 2-1 in their other games. The Illini are coming off an ugly loss to Purdue on the scoreboard but the yardage in that game was about equal. The Illini will bounce back here at home and though Matt Rhule will eventually get things going at Nebraska it will take time. His first year at Temple he was 2-10 SU and his first year at Baylor he was 1-11 SU. This is his first year at Nebraska and he has 2 wins so far but against very bad teams and when you look at his remaining schedule it will be tough to get wins for sure. Unlike Rhule, Brett Bielema is in his 3rd year at Illinois and the Illini had gone 2-6 the covid year before he got here and then went 5-7 and then 8-4 last season. So the Bielema project is much further along than the Rhule project at this point in time. Also, taking a look at the Illini, again their other 2 losses this season they were a dog and those 2 teams they lost to are a combined 9-1 this season. The loss to Purdue is the one outlier for Illinois and that just happened. Teams often bounce back off embarrassing losses like that and I expect the Illini will do just that here. 10* ILLINOIS (-) |
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10-06-23 | CSMS Iasi v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #206969: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Poli Iasi @ 2 ET - Rapid is happy to be home here and will be fired up off a 1-1 draw last week with Hermannstadt. Also, Poli Iasi is off a rare scoreless draw last week. So the set-up here is perfect to expect a stronger scoring effort. Rapid is, of course, a huge favorite for a reason. They should win at least 2-1 but even a 3-1 final would not be shocking given the situation here. Note that Rapid has scored at least 3 goals in 3 straight home matches and, overall, has scored multiple goals in 4 of last 5 matches as a host while producing an average of 3 goals per match in those 4 matches! As for Poli Iasi, they had scored at least one goal in 5 straight matches before their scoreless draw with Petrolul Ploesti last week. Those 5 matches averaged 3 goals and I am confident we'll see at least that in this one as well. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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10-06-23 | Hermannstadt v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #206977: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in FCU 1948 Craiova vs Hermannstadt @ 11 AM ET - FCU 1948 Craiova does not have a single draw in 11 matches this season. So if you expect each club to score at least once here and if that strong trending holds true, you are looking at a 2-1 match at the very least in this one. That is fully what I am expecting as well and FCU 1948 Craiova has allowed 2 goals in each of last two matches and this was preceded by a 7-match stretch in which they scored in all 7 matches plus averaged scoring 2.6 goals per match. Hermannstadt has both scored AND conceded in 8 of last 10 matches. Those 10 matches averaged 2.8 goals apiece and I see this one, for all the reasons noted above, also getting to that key 3 goal mark for us. Hermannstadt has not won a game in their last 3 and FCU 1948 Craiova is off B2B shutout losses but happy to be at home here and fully prepared to respond big in this one. We'll see solid scoring here based on the situation of both of these clubs. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in FCU 1948 Craiova |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6 v. Commanders | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +6 @ Washington Commanders @ 8:15 ET - Both teams off tough losses last week but the Commanders was even tougher the way I see it. They lost in OT at Philly and that is a divisional match-up for Washington and was a physical battle that took a lot out of them. The Bears, on the other hand, are coming off a non-conference battle versus the Broncos. Though it is still sickening to Chicago that they blew a huge lead against Denver and lost, I also think they will be better set physically and mentally for this match-up at DC. Note that Chicago has lost 14 straight games SU and is on the road here yet getting less than TD. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about purported "odds maker mistakes" and this is particularly true in the NFL. In other words, grab the points with the team on a 14-game losing streak. Chicago is 0-6 ATS last 6 road games but the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in Commanders games this season. The latter of those two trends is the one I see continuing here. The Bears dominated their game statistically but were done in by turnovers last week. Conversely, Washington was outgained by Philly and keep in mind that even includes all the yardage the Commanders picked up at the end of regulation with a game-tying drive when Eagles went in to prevent defense. I like the fact the Bears showed improvement on both sides of the ball last week and they will build off that here and actually have a good shot at finally getting back into the win column. At the very least, they get the road cover here the way I see it! 10* CHICAGO +6 |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -6 @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 8 ET - One could argue that Louisiana Tech's best player on offense is QB Hank Bachmeier. He might be out again this week but even if he does play he will not be 100% due to shoulder injury. One could also argue that the Bulldogs best player on defense is senior linebacker Brevin Randle and he will not play in this game as he has been suspended for a head stomp in the win at UTEP. Louisiana Tech was actually outgained by the Miners in that victory and UTEP is not a good football team. Yes the Hilltoppers overall stats are not great this season but they also played Ohio State and, as expected, were thoroughly dominated by the Buckeyes. That is certainly impacting their stats. Keep in mind, they went 3-1 SU in their other 4 games and the lone WKU loss was by just 3 points while each of the 3 wins was by a margin of at least 17 points! Louisiana Tech's only other FBS win, besides the unimpressive win over UTEP last week, was a 5-point win over a bad FIU team. The Bulldogs have 3 losses this season and 2 of those have been by at least 14 points and I expect this one will be too! QB Austin Reed is solid for the Toppers and he is the healthier of the QBs here and overall the road favorite has big edges over a home dog that is simply a bad football team. They have won just 3 games each of the past two seasons and their win at UTEP last week was their first road win in 17 tries dating back to the 2020 season. Yes they are now back home for this one but a streak of 16 straight road losses prior to last week shows just how bad this team really is. I like the road team to get the win here and love the fact the line has dropped down some and is below a TD. The value is with the road favorite against a wounded home dog dealing with some issues on both sides of the ball. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY -6 |
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10-05-23 | Union Saint-Gilloise v. Liverpool OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #224497: Europa League | Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +100 in Liverpool vs Union St.-Gilloise @ 3 ET - Union St.-Gilloise plays in the Belgian Pro League and enters this match having won 3 straight matches and scoring an average of 2.7 goals per match. However, the issue for USG here is they face an angry English Premier League foe and they are facing them on the road at Liverpool. This Reds club is very upset about a short-handed loss in EPL action versus Tottenham as they were done in by red cards and there was a lot of controversy in that match. This insures a proper focus here. Yes they will rest some players here for sure but their talent and depth are still too much and it is why they are a 2-goal favorite on the goal line for this one as well. Also, one of the players likely to rest is their top goalie which means Kelleher likely to get this start in between the sticks. That furthers the likelihood of success on offense for USG here but they can not stop Liverpool. So I am looking for at least a 3-1 final in this one given all the above. Note that Liverpool, prior to the short-handed loss to Liverpool had scored 3 goals in each of their 5 preceding matches. This one should fly over the total as a 4-2 final would not shock me in the least given the situation and the other parameters of this match-up noted above. 10* OVER 3.5 +100 in Liverpool |
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10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -150 vs Miami Marlins @ 8:08 ET - Two good teams and two quality pitchers here but home field edge plus post-season experience edge plus a vintage Nola performance should all combine for another big Phillies win today. Note that Aaron Nola closed the season with a pair of quality outings and he continues to love pitching in Philly. Historically he has great numbers at home and he went 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA at home this season despite not always having his best stuff. That shows how comfortable he is on his home mound. Nola held opponents to a .212 batting average here in Philly. Braxton Garrett is a solid young hurler for the Marlins but still he entered this season with a 5-10 combined record through his first 3 seasons in the majors and now makes his post-season debut in a road start at raucous Philly! Though he had a solid season this year he was 6-7 with a 4.46 ERA in his night starts this year. Look for the Phillies to set up a date with the division rival Braves by knocking off the Marlins again tonight in a solid home win. 10* PHILADELPHIA -150 |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3.5 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 8 ET - This line is around a 3.5 as of very early gameday morning and I am expecting a solid win and cover for MTSU here. They are at home and coming off a turnover-fueled loss at Western Kentucky last week. The game against WKU is a big one for the Blue Raiders and so I did some research on this and they have lost a few in a row when facing the Hilltoppers and the result has been a big bounce back effort the following week. In fact, MTSU is now a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 times when off a game against Western Kentucky. Look for that trend to continue here as they catch Jacksonville State off a last-gasp fortunate win and cover at Sam Houston. They rallied late against the Bearkats for a game-tying touchdown with the necessary two point conversion as well! Then the Gamecocks got the win in overtime. Not only that, this big comeback OT win was on the road. I feel that will have taken a lot out of Jacksonville State and they did give up 300 yards of passing offense to a Sam Houston team that had been very weak on offense this season. Now the Gamecocks face a Middle Tennessee State team angry off a loss and, keep in mind, turnovers played a key role in that defeat at Western Kentucky! MTSU has faced the much tougher schedule and that is offering huge line value here! Trust me, there is a reason this 1-4 Blue Raiders team is favored over this 4-1 Jacksonville State team and the line is no mistake! Lay it! 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (-) |
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10-04-23 | Manchester City v. RB Leipzig OVER 3 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 113 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #224325: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +120 in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - Of course Manchester City is a solid favorite here - even though they are on the road - with good reason. However, I do not expect them to deliver a clean sheet to this tough RB Leipzig club that has been in strong current form. Note that Manchester City has allowed at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches. RB Leipzig has scored at least 1 goal in 9 straight matches and scored multiple goals in 8 of those with an incredible scoring average of 3 goals per match in those 8 matches! Of course this will be tougher competition for RB Leipzig but this club from Germany is playing with plenty of confidence right now as you would expect with stats like that! However, they will not be able to slow down a Manchester City club that comes into this one angry as they are off rare B2B losses. Manchester City, prior to B2B losses, had scored in 5 straight matches and actually scored an average of 3 goals in those 5 matches! Of course they are one of the best football clubs in the world and proved that again this past season but now, off B2B losses, it is time to respond in a huge way and I expect them to do just that here as they hammered RB Leipzig 7-0 the last time these clubs met. RB Leipzig will be particularly aggressive here in terms of scoring more goals and staying on the attack throughout and they did earn a 1-1 draw the last time they hosted City. They want more though and City, of course, wants a response here after B2B losses entering this one. The result is big scoring! 10* OVER 3 +120 in RB Leipzig |
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10-04-23 | Feyenoord v. Atletico Madrid OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #224301: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -120 in Atletico Madrid vs Feyenoord @ 12:45 ET - Of course Atletico Madrid a solid favorite here at home with good reason. However, I do not expect them to deliver a clean sheet to this Feyenoord club. Note that Atletico Madrid has allowed at least 1 goal in 4 of last 5 matches. Feyenoord has scored an average of 4 goals per match last 7 matches! Of course this will be tougher competition for Feyenoord but this club from Rotterdam is playing with plenty of confidence right now as you would expect with stats like that! However, they will not be able to slow down an Atletico Madrid club that has scored in 6 of last 7 matches and actually scored an average of 3 goals in those 6 matches with at least one goal! Certainly there is nothing average about that and at least 2-1 but possibly 3-2 the likely outcomes in this one the way I see it! In the draw with Lazio in their most recent Champions League | Group Stage action, Atletico Madrid gave up a late equalizer in extra time for the 1-1 draw. That said, they will be particularly aggressive here in terms of scoring more goals and staying on the attack throughout. 10* OVER 2.5 -120 in Atletico Madrid |
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10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -150 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -155 vs Miami Marlins @ 8:08 ET - The Marlins went 33-13 in one-run games this season. That tells you two things. One is that they are pretty solid team to be so strong in games like that. However, the other thing is that certainly has been a lot of luck involved too. No other team gets close to that record in 1-run games and I feel strongly that the Miami luck will run out here in Philly in this series. Adding to the value here is Marlins are 4 games under .500 on the road this season and are just 38-50 against teams with a winning record this season. Philly went a solid 49-32 in home games this season. Also, the Phillies send Zack Wheeler to the mound and he rates edges over Jesus Luzardo in my opinion. The latter started to fade some as the season went on. In fact, Luzardo is 2-5 with a 4.70 ERA the past two months. He has a 4.48 ERA on the road and has been hit at a .276 clip away from home. Wheeler, on the other hand, went 6-2 with a 3.08 ERA and held opponents to a .204 batting average since the All-Star break. The Phillies also hold a bullpen edge here and post-season experience edge in addition to home field edge. That is a lot of edges for a game priced in this range and I feel we have huge value as a result here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -155 |
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10-03-23 | Blue Jays +100 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line +100 @ Minnesota Twins @ 4:38 ET - Both pitchers off strong September performances but Gausman held hitters to a .189 batting average for the month while Lopez got hit at a .246 clip and is getting hit at a .262 clip since the All Star break. Gausman compiled a 2.58 ERA in day games this season. Lopez had a 4.25 ERA in day games this season. Toronto is on the road for this series but their road record this season was just as strong as Minnesota's home record this season. Also, the AL East was so much stronger than the AL Central this season. Note that the Blue Jays come from the much stronger division and they went 22-10 against teams from the AL Central while the Twins went 13-19 against teams from the AL East. The point is that if the Jays were in the Central and Minnesota was in the East I would bet big money that Toronto wins 100 games and the Twins do not even make the playoffs. All of this said, and with the Blue Jays having a slight bullpen edge too, we have solid line value here with the road team in my opinion. 10* TORONTO +100 |
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10-03-23 | Bayern Munich v. FC Copenhagen OVER 3.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #224289: Champions League | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +105 in FC Copenhagen vs Bayern Munich @ 3 ET - Copenhagen impressed me with putting up 2 on Galatasaray in getting an early 2-0 lead there in group stage action. However, they then allowed 2 goals and settled for a 2-2 draw. That is an indicator of what to expect here. Copenhagen could surprise with a goal or two here but, at the end of the day, they will not be able to stop high-powered Bayern Munich. That is why I expect plenty of goals here as Copenhagen will put up a fight here at home but they just do not have the horses to keep up with powerhouse Bayern. Note that Bayern has scored an average of 3.5 goals per match last 8 matches. Copenhagen is off a rare home shutout loss in Danish Superliga action so the set up here is perfect. Not only has Copehagen allowed at least 2 goals in 4 straight matches, they also - prior to the shutout loss - had scored at least 2 goals in 4 straight matches! Bayern Munich is favored by 2 goals on the goal line with good reason here and I am expecting at least a 3-1 final in this one! 10* OVER 3.5 +105 in FC Copehagen |
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10-03-23 | Burnley v. Luton Town OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 130 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200121: English Premier League Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +130 in Luton Town vs Burnley @ 2:30 ET - Burnley has gone 9 straight road EPL matches without a clean sheet. Luton Town has seen their home fixtures produce at least one goal for them as well as their opponents. Remember that Kenilworth Road is hosting EPL matches for the first time ever and Luton Town has made the most of their home pitch edge in the historic venue of their city. Now Luton Town can also build off a 2-1 road victory at Everton in their most recent match. Luton Town, including EFL Cup action has played 3 matches here since the EPL season got underway and having scored and conceded in each, these matches have unsurprisingly averaged 3.3 goals apiece. I love the odds on this one getting to at least 3 goals as well. Note that each club has played 6 league matches but only has 1 draw to show for it. Considering the above stats that further pushes the odds in our favor that this one ends at least 2-1. Luton Town allowing 2 goals per match this season and Burnley allowing 2.5 goals per match. Also, the hosts do have some new injury concerns on defense so Burnley will be apt to be more aggressive on the attack here as well to take full advantage. 10* OVER 2.5 +130 in Luton Town |
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10-03-23 | Real Sociedad v. Salzburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #224265: Champions League | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Salzburg vs Real Sociedad @ 12:45 ET - Real Sociedad settled for a draw in their first match in the group stage because they scored just 4 minutes into the match but tried to sit on the lead and then gave up a late equalizer! Big mistake and they will be more aggressive here throughout. Look at their other five recent matches and those have averaged 5 goals apiece! We only need 3 goals to be a winner here. Now take at look at Salzburg. The hosts in this one beat Benfica 2-0 in their first match of the group stage and that win certainly falls into the category of giant-killer. So, unsurprisingly they fell flat in their very next match just a few days later in league action and that was a 1-0 defeat. However, other than that match, note that Salzburg has scored 2.7 goals per match in their last ten matches! Given all of the above plus the fact Salzburg is at home and Real Sociedad has reason to be more aggressive on the attack here, you can see why I am expecting a lot of goals in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Salzburg |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Under head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants have been strong off a loss. They won at Arizona in Week 2 after ugly home loss to Dallas the week before. Now, off an ugly road loss against a strong 49ers team, the Giants are at home and ready to respond. Not only are they 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday night game, they also went 4-0 ATS last season when they were at home and coming off a loss. That means that, under coach Daboll, the Giants are a perfect 4-0 ATS when at home and off a loss. I know they are 1-2 SU this season and have some ugly stats but, keep in mind, the Giants two losses were to a pair of the best teams in the NFL and the Cowboys and Niners are now a combined 7-1 SU on the season. Yes, the Seahawks are 2-1 SU this season but 2 of their 3 games have been against teams that are combined 2-6 SU on the season! Early in the season you can get some extra line value based on early market perception influenced by a lack of factoring for the schedules. By the way, so far this season, the Chiefs and Eagles failed to cover on the Thursday night games and each covered their very next game. Look for the Giants, after the ATS beatdown at San Francisco, to continue that trend. I love the fact that the Giants have yet to get an ATS cover this season as that has led to line value here. We step in and take advantage. The Seahawks are off B2B covers but this followed a 1-9 ATS stretch dating back to last season and I feel Seattle is very over-valued here on the road. The Giants have the rest edge here. Again, consider the strength of schedule too. The Seahawks have faced 3 non-playoff teams from last season that went a combined 21-30 SU. The Giants have a win in the game they were supposed to win and a pair of losses in games against teams that went, including post-season, a combined 28-11 SU last season and are also now 7-1 SU this season so far. The home dog is the play here and, though 1.5 is the dominant number, there is some 2 out there as well. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS + points |
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10-02-23 | Chelsea v. Fulham OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #200117: English Premier League: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Fulham vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - A pair of struggling clubs here. Each of these clubs off to slow starts in the Premier League this season but each having tasted victory in EFL Cup action last week. There is a reason this total is a solid 2.5 across the board. Look for both clubs to really emphasize the attack here. They have been hurt by a lack of goal-scoring early this season but Fulham fully capable of doing some damage here on their home pitch. At the same time, Chelsea has been creating some solid opportunities but just not finishing. The Blues are on the cusp of some bigger scoring outputs and I look for the process of turning the corner in league action to begin here. Yes it was a low-scoring September for Chelsea but August matches across all competitions saw Chelsea both score and concede in 4 of the 5 matches. Each of the last 3 that month totaled at least 3 goals. In the month of July that preceded that, the 4 Friendly matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Fulham's 4 Friendly matches averaged 3 goals apiece. Also, prior to their last two EPL matches being low-scoring, each of the 3 prior to that totaled at least 3 goals and those averaged 4 goals apiece. Off a 2-1 win in EFL Cup action, look for Fulham to build off that here but Chelsea is favored here for a reason! That said, should be at least a 2-1 final! 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Fulham |
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10-02-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #206925: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in FCSB vs Universitatea Cluj @ 2 ET - FCSB is off to a strong start this season and off huge 5-2 win at Sepsi. They have revenge on their minds here as they lost at Universitatea Cluj the last time these clubs met so I expect them to again be relentless on the attack here just like they were at Sepsi. Having revenge from a 2-1 loss, FCSB should continue their high-scoring trend as they are on a 4-match unbeaten run and have scored an average of 3 goals per match during this stretch. Yes, this total is a solid 2.5 but 5 of their last 6 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 6 matches averaged 3.5 goals apiece. As for Universitatea Cluj, they have scored an average of 1.6 goals per match last 8 matches but also allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 9 matches. Odds favor both clubs scoring here and with FCBS having just 1 draw in their 10 matches this season, odds also favor that there will not be a sharing of the spoils here. That said, should be at least a 2-1 final! 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in FCSB |
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10-02-23 | Petrolul 52 v. CSMS Iasi OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #206937: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -133 in Poli Iasi vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 11 AM ET - This one is actually available at over 2 at a very reasonable price as low as the -133 range and I will not hesitate to get involved here. 2 is a key number in soccer totals wagering and in Romania Liga 1 action that is particularly true. Many matches land on 2 here. Now I do like this one to get to 3 or more or I would not be playing it but the value of a 2 being a push here can not be over-stated! Poli Iasi has had 5 straight matches and 14 of last 16 total at least 2 goals. Those 16 matches averaged 3 goals apiece! I know Petrolul Ploiesti comes into this one slumping a bit in the scoring department but that has been the exception rather than the norm for these guys. Prior to a scoreless draw and a 1-0 loss last 2 matches, Petrolul Ploiesti had 9 straight matches total at least 2 goals and those 9 matches averaged 3 goals apiece. We will see plenty of goals here as Poli Iasi is now adjusted to life in the top league again in Romania while Petrolul Ploiesti is absolutely ready to explode here with some scoring after recent frustration last two matches. 10* OVER 2 -133 in Poli Iasi |
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10-01-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Jets | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - I am not a big fan of laying big points in the NFL but this Jets team is really bad right now. Currently this line is in the 8.5 range but there is some 8 out there and I am expecting a double digit road win here. Even though the NYJ defense can be solid and will do their best here, this offense just can not be trusted at all. They have been so bad as many are questioning the entire QB situation of course ever since Rodgers went down with injury right away in week 1. That game in week 1 was a bit of a miracle win for New York and now reality has quickly set in. The same holds true for the Chiefs. They had a shocking loss in week 1 but their reality has set in now as they are off B2B wins and really dominated the Bears last week. I know it was just "da Bears" but the defending champs are a confident group that really has their offense clicking now on all cylinders. The Jets had 171 yards last week and the Chiefs had over 450 yards of offense last week. This will be a blowout. KC will have some extra focus here and will really bring an A game effort here. Even though they are the defending champs, the primetime games still carry extra weight. Having lost the first one this season is something the Chiefs have not forgotten and they want to make amends for that right here right now in New York. I look for them to do just that. The last 6 times on MNF that they were facing a team off a SU loss they showed no mercy to say the least. KC went 6-0 ATS in that situation and they do it again here as the Jets struggles on offense will be the key culprit here. 10* KANSAS CITY (-) points |
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10-01-23 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 48 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - When you look at the point totals that the Raiders have put up, it is not a big surprise that this total has dropped some and is down to a 48 as of early gameday morning. However, all this means for us is even more value with an over that should get well into the 50s. The Chargers defense has had some struggles and so too has the LV defense. Also, the Raiders have moved the ball better than their point totals show as they also have been hurt by turnovers. As for Los Angeles, their offense has been great so far this season and they are favored by nearly a touchdown here with good reason! So if Las Vegas just gets into the 21 range and the odds makers are right about this line, you already have a game that is in the upper 40s. The fact is the Chargers have allowed an average of 29 points per game this season and never allowed less than 24. The Raiders have allowed 30.5 the past two weeks and their defensive numbers were only better last week because of facing a Steelers team that has an anemic offense. The Raiders defense will get lit up here but look for them to also have success against a Chargers defense that is dead last in pass defense so far this season. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers |
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10-01-23 | U Craiova 1948 v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #206941: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in CFR Cluj vs FCU 1948 Craiova @ 2 ET - FCU 1948 Craiova has had zero draws in ten matches this season. That means if you feel each club will score a goal here (and I certainly do), the odds very strongly favor that this one will get to at least 2-1 as well. Odds favor no draw here. Also, FCU 1948 Craiova is off a 2-0 loss in most recent match and that followed a stretch of 7 straight matches in which they had scored at least 1 goal and actually averaged scoring 2.6 goals per match during this stretch! CFR Cluj has scored an average of 2 goals per match in last 5 matches with FCU 1948 Craiova. Also, they are scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season but are off a 3-1 loss to Rapid so you know they are going to bring a strong effort here on their home pitch. That should lead to at least a 2-1 final here the way I see it. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in CFR Cluj |
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10-01-23 | Commanders +9 v. Eagles | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +9 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - First off some technical stuff here. The Commanders just got throttled at home by the Bills last week - we were on Buffalo in easy win - but Washington is in a perfect 7-0 ATS spot here. Generally I like decent teams off horrible losses and the Commanders have a great divisional angle here. When they are playing a divisional foe and Washington is off a double digit ATS loss and the team they are playing is on a winning streak of at least 2 games plus playing with revenge, the Commanders have covered 7 times in a row. Sometimes revenge is overplayed and I know Washington won at Philly the last time these teams met and it ended the Eagles unbeaten start to last season. That said, Philly wants this game but they are on short rest off a MNF Game plus still have been dealing with some injury issues. I am not saying they won't get revenge and at least win this game but I think asking them to win this by double digits is asking too much. Eagles are 3-0 this season but statistically have not been that dominant. They will look to pound the ground game and grind out a win here but Washington has enough firepower to keep this one close. The last 5 times Philly entered a game off a SU road win they have gone 3-2 SU but all 3 wins were by 7 or less points. I look for a very tight game here as the Commanders respond off an embarrassing loss. Look for the above trend I mentioned to improve to 8-0 ATS as the dog gets the cover here. 10* WASHINGTON +9 |
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10-01-23 | Rapid Bucuresti v. Hermannstadt OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -62 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #206921: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Hermannstadt vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 11 AM ET - Hermannstadt is off a scoreless draw but this followed 4 straight matches totaling 4 goals! Not only that, it followed a stretch of 5 straight matches (and 7 of 8) in which they both scored and conceded at least once in each match. That said, a lot of value here with the over because I do expect Hermannstadt to have some success on their home pitch but I also expect Rapid to deliver huge here. Rapid remembers their most recent road match was a scoreless draw at Otelul Galati and they will aim to do something about that right here right now. Rapid is one of the top clubs in the league and 11 of their last 15 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Rapid has not only scored at least 1 goal in 7 of last 9 matches, they averaged scoring 3 goals per match in those 7 matches! This one has the makings of a 3-1 final the way I see it but at least should get to 2-1. Remember too that Rapid lost in Bucuresti 1-0 to Hermannstadt in March the last time these clubs met. This road club is looking for payback and that means an aggressive attacking style will permeate this match! 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Hermannstadt |
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10-01-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET - The dominant number as of about 5 hours before kickoff on this one is a 3 but there is some 3.5 out there and I would recommend jumping on that now if you can. The Jaguars are off B2B losses and the Falcons have the better defense and are off their first loss of the season. I could see Atlanta bouncing back huge here off a defeat in which they scored just 6 points. They will take advantage of a weak Jaguars defense. Much is made of the travel here and that Jacksonville is use to it and the Falcons are not - in terms of London games. But to put this in proper perspective, the USA is so big that went teams go East to West they are sometimes traveling 5 to 6 hours in the air just to get to the West Coast and it is a 3-hour time difference to adjust the body clocks. The point is that going Atlanta to London is about 7 hours in the air on a non-stop flight and when you land there it is a 5-hour difference on the body clock. So the point is that going to London for an NFL team in the Eastern Time Zone is not much different than going to a West Coast NFL city. Speaking from experience as I live in Europe right now, the travel going back to USA is tougher for sure. It is longer and more difficult to adjust the body clocks. That said Jaguars being used to this trip is not relevant in my book. Both teams coming off ugly losses and I trust the better defense getting points! Very quietly these Falcons have allowed an average of only 18 ppg their last 9 games as they finished last season strong too on the defensive side of the ball. The Jaguars have a long-term history of struggles against NFC opposition and, within that, they have actually lost 10 in a row ATS when facing a team from NFC South. I look for that play-against situation to reach 11-0 ATS here as Falcons have great shot at outright win but should at least get the cover. 10* ATLANTA + points |
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10-01-23 | Brentford v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #200113: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Nottingham Forest vs Brentford @ 9 AM ET - This is a great spot for goals. Both clubs are ready to "explode" here. Nottingham Forest is off a 2-0 loss at Manchester City but they play better when at home. Also, that loss at City followed a win and a draw in their two matches prior and, overall, they had scored 1.4 goals per match in league action prior to that 2-0 loss. Also, they are allowing an average of 1.5 goals per match on the season. They face a Brentford club hungry to get going again. Surprisingly Brentford has just one win in six matches this season but their matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here. Brentford, like Nottingham Forest, is off a shutout loss and they will be looking to explode here. They have scored an average of 2 goals per match last 4 matches against Nottingham Forest and all 4 of those matches featured each club scoring and conceding at least once. 3 of the 4 matches totaled at least 3 goals and this one will too. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Nottingham Forest |
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09-30-23 | Texas State v. Southern Miss OVER 59.5 | Top | 50-36 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Texas State Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Golden Eagles and Bobcats both have gotten their run games going. What that does is further open up the passing game options. Both teams have piled up big yardage recently and it will continue here. I like Texas State to score well as their offense has been clicking as one of the most efficient in FBS so far this season. Also, they are facing a Golden Eagles defense that has been one of the least efficient in the FBS so far this season. But do factor in that Southern Miss is at home here and they got their offense really going last week so they are confident and at home and should move the ball well here. However, the Bobcats will look to keep the hammer down on the road and they have truly been ultra impressive so far this season and I love the fact this total was in the 60s but has dropped to the upper 50s. I feel this has given us fantastic extra value in this spot and I won't hesitate in recommending this play as my top total today on Saturday. Other than a low-scoring loss at UTSA, Texas State has seen their other 3 games average 78 total points per game! Again the posted total here is about 20 points less than that number. Southern Mississippi has seen 2 of their last 3 games total at least 79 points. After such an ugly performance at home in their recent loss to Tulane, the Golden Eagles will bring a supreme effort here at home and I look for them to move the ball well on a suspect Bobcats defense. However, this Texas State is sure to pile up the points here as well. 10* OVER the total in Southern Mississippi |
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09-30-23 | Baylor +9 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) vs Central Florida @ 3:30 ET - Current line is in the 9 or 9.5 range here and I am going to challenge the big favorite to win this by double digits. Baylor is expected to Shapen back at QB for this one while Central Florida is still without Plumlee. I know the Bears are 1-3 this season but their 3 losses this season were to an improved Texas State team and to Utah and Texas! These are all solid teams that entered this week's action with a combined 11-1 record on the season! I don't think Baylor is what they use to be BUT they are also much better than their record shows and Shapen is a very strong QB that will give this team a huge boost this week. UCF is also not what they use to be and, though they have been surviving without Plumlee in recent weeks they will struggle more without him in a tougher game like this. The Bears feel their backs are to the wall and they get their starting QB back and there is a feeling of "now or never" for Baylor. I think they will come out strong and this Knights team is not what they use to be. UCF is 3-1 this season but 2 of the wins against FCS schools and one of those was against Boise State and the Broncos are not as strong as in the past. Also, coming off a loss against Kansas State last week that ended their unbeaten start to the season, the Knights may be thinking they just come home and all is well again because they are in the Bounce House. However, this Bears team is going to come to play and an outright win would not surprise me. At the very least I expect the road dog to lose this one by only a one score margin if they even lose. 10* BAYLOR (+) points |
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09-30-23 | Sepsi v. Farul Constanta 1920 OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #206929: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -150 in Farul vs Sepsi @ 2:30 ET - Farul is off a 2-0 win and that could get them going again. Now they are at home where they traditionally do score better and I believe it is time that the defending champs will get going again. The problem is, last match notwithstanding, this Farul club does have some defensive issues this season. They had allowed 7 goals in last 3 matches across all competitions prior to that 2-0 win. As for Sepsi, they are off a 5-2 loss. Across all competitions, 4 of last 5 Sepsi matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 5 matches actually averaged 4 goals apiece. Each of last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 2 goals and this one will too. Considering that each club is likely to score at least one goal and Farul has 0 draws in 9 matches in league action this season, you can see why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final in this one! 10* OVER 2 -150 in Farul |
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09-30-23 | Liverpool v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #200109: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +105 in Tottenham vs Liverpool @ 12:30 ET - Expect plenty of scoring here. Yes it is a big total but, keep in mind, Tottenham has scored at least 2 goals in all their league matches thus far. They are definitely a different club with Postecoglou calling the shots. They have been goal-happy but having some defensive deficiencies early this season and, truly, Liverpool has been the same way. That said, we can expect plenty of goals here with Liverpool having scored at least 2 goals in 11 of last 13 matches. They have averaged 3 goals per match in those 13 matches and with Tottenham averaging about 3 goals scored per match last 11 matches across all competitions this is the type of match-up that has 3-2 written all over it! Either way, I do expect at least 4 goals here in this one. 10* OVER 3.5 +105 in Tottenham |
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09-30-23 | Penn State v. Northwestern OVER 46.5 | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Northwestern Wildcats vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - This is a great spot for plenty of points and this total is in the 46.5 to 47 range. I know the Nittany Lions defense has been great but this is an ideal flat spot for the D. They are off B2B wins in Big Ten action but they won at Illinois and then hammered Iowa last week. The Hawkeyes offense is anemic and the Illini offense has averaged just 19.7 points per game the last 3 games. Penn State has a bye week on deck and then Massachusetts next. So off 2 big wins in conference action and then able to coast a bit after this the Nittany Lions could start their coasting a bit a week early. The Wildcats rallied from a 31-10 deficit last week for the win over Minnesota in OT. That huge 4th quarter comeback and big OT win means their confidence is surging heading into this home match-up with PSU. They will not be able to stop this solid Lions offense but don't be surprised if they score plenty here too. This one will surprise some folks because Penn State is certainly a deserved huge favorite for a reason but the Wildcats can score well here as Lions defensive intensity will falter here a bit. They are already looking ahead to the bye week and that win over the Hawkeyes was a big one for them last week. The Cats have scored at least 31 in each home game this season and they will not get that here but the point is, especially with good weather, they will score well here. 10* OVER the total in Northwestern |
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09-30-23 | Manchester City v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 50 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #200105: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Wolverhampton vs Manchester City @ 10 AM ET - I would not be surprised to see Wolverhampton find the back of the net here at home in this one but they are known for having trouble stopping Manchester City and they are facing them at the wrong time. City is off the loss to Newcastle United in EFL Cup action. Of course Haaland did not not even play in that match and the league action is the focus of City right now and they will show that again here. City will come out with a lot of aggression here and will be on the attack early and often in this one. 4 of last 5 Wolverhampton matches across all competitions have totaled at least 4 goals and 3 of the 4 totaled 5 goals! As for City, they had scored an average of 3 goals last 5 matches across all competitions prior to the 1-0 loss to Newcastle. Their most recent match was a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest in which a red card put a halt to the scoring. Prior to this 4 straight City matches totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for a 3-1 type of match here! 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Wolverhampton |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 10:15 ET - I like the underdog line value after the line move. This line has swung toward the Bearcats and currently we can get home dog BYU at +1 or +1.5 as of very early gameday morning. The fact is that Cincinnati had a lot of coaching changes heading into the season and even the assistant coaches that Scott Satterfield had ended up taking "better" opportunities elsewhere. Of course former head coach Luke Fickell moved onto Wisconsin. The point is that this one, for me, is as much a play against Cincy as it is a play on BYU. This is a tough spot for the Bearcats the way I see it. Yes they knew that beating Oklahoma last week was a lot to ask and sure enough they lost by two TDs. Still, the Cats did want that home game badly and now they are traveling on the road on a short week and in the thin air of Provo in Utah. This Brigham Young team is off a loss but they faced a tough Kansas team that is now 4-0 on the season. The Jayhawks are a different team under head coach Lance Leipold and there is no real shame in that loss for BYU. Still, that was the first loss of the Cougars on the season and I look for them to bounce back here at home and though the competition was weaker it is still worth noting something here. Brigham Young won first two home games this season by a combined score of 55 to 16 and they will make the most of this spot as it is their first home game in 3 weeks. Both teams have a bye on deck but I like the fact Bearcats are on the road here. Cougars will take advantage. The Cats lost at home to Miami-Ohio which is bad news for sure about the current state of this program. The fact that is their only ATS loss in 4 games this season while BYU is 1-3 ATS this season is also helping to give us line value here. Lets take advantage. 10* BYU + points |
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09-29-23 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - The Yankees are off a shutout loss yesterday but this followed wins in 5 of last 6 games and New York scored an average of 5 runs in the 5 victories. As for Kansas City, the Royals are off 3 straight losses and allowed 7 runs per defeat on average. However, KC is certainly happy to back home and the sweep at the hands of Detroit followed a hot stretch for Kansas City. The Royals had won 10 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game prior to falling apart against the Tigers. The bats should bounce back against Rodon here as the Yankees southpaw has been nothing special this season. As for the Royals Lyles, he is having a very rough season overall and the Yankees hammered him earlier this season and the same should hold true here. He is 5-17 with a 6.24 ERA on the year. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City |
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09-29-23 | Toronto v. Winnipeg -7.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -7.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 8 ET - The Blue Bombers are 3-0 this season when off a loss and they also enter this game off a bye week! Also, all 3 of those wins after a loss were by at least 14 points. So this is a situation that is PERFECT on the season. Winnipeg off a loss is 3-0 with all 3 wins by at least 14 points and the line here is 7.5 and also note that the Argos have won 6 in a row and they also started the season 6-0 and then lost their next game by 13. So, from that aspect, this is also testing a perfect situation that should become a perfect 2-0 here. This Blue Bombers lost the Grey Cup to the Argos in November so this is finally their chance at revenge and they are at home and Toronto is on short rest while Winnipeg has extra rest coming off a bye week. Situations just do not get much better than this! We take advantage and look for a blowout home win by double digits here. Look for the Blue Bombers to improve to 4-0 ATS on the season when in this situation which again, is absolutely ideal for a win by 14 or more again! 10* WINNIPEG -7.5 |
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09-29-23 | Sevilla v. Barcelona FC OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #201901: Spanish La Liga: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -130 in Barcelona vs Sevilla @ 3 ET - Sevilla off a huge 5-1 win and carries plenty of confidence into this match-up. I do look for them to make the net ripple here but their struggles against Barcelona are well-documented. Also, Barcelona is going to be ruthless here as they are angry off a 2-2 draw in which they let a lead slip away. So, that being said, I am looking for plenty of scoring in this one on the basis of a dangerous road dog playing with confidence but an angry home favorite that will be relentless on the attack. 10* OVER 3 -130 in Barcelona |
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09-29-23 | Dinamo Bucuresti v. Otelul OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #206933: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -125 in Otelul Galati vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 2 ET - Otelul Galati is off their first win of the season but now watch them fall flat here against a hungry Dinamo Bucuresti club. Galati has scored 2 goals in 3 of last 4 matches but also has allowed 2 goals in B2B matches before rare B2B clean sheets. They have been a scrappy club but now look to build off that win and I believe they will emphasize the same attacking style that has helped lead to 2 goals scored for them in 3 of last 4. As for Dinamo, they are desperate to get going this season and have allowed an average of 2 goals per match on the season. They will struggle again to stop Galati here but I do expect them to get their attack going in in this one. All 4 of their road matches have totaled at least 2 goals this season and actually have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Also, they had scored 1.7 goals per match in the first 3 on the road before being delivered a clean sheet in their most recent match on enemy pitch. They bounce back on the attack here but Galati scores as well at home and I love the value of the over 2 here and expect at least that but banking on 3 or more in this one. 10* OVER 2 -125 in Otelul Galati |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - This total has mostly held at 46 but is starting to drop to 45.5 at the time of this posting Thursday morning. The Lions caught the Falcons last week off a tight win over, ironically, these same Packers. It was Atlanta's first road game of the season and the perfect spot for the Falcons offense to fall flat and they did just that. Sure some credit is due the Lions defense but lets not forget the week 1 win over KC saw the Chiefs, like a lot of teams, struggle on offense. Detroit then gave up plenty in the 37-31 OT loss to Seattle. I do like the Lions offense so far this season but am not yet sold on the defense. That said, the Packers should move the ball well here. They have really played well with Jordan Love at QB. Keep in mind in limited action last season he also played well behind long-time Packer Aaron Rodgers - now with the Jets but out with injury. The point is that Love is finally getting his opportunity and he is making the most of it. Now he can build momentum off a come-from-behind win last week. GB got that key win after a very slow start and lets not forget the Pack averaged 31 points in the first two games this season. So the point is that both teams are off lower-scoring games last week but these offenses showed what they could do the first two weeks this season. Considering the low-scoring trend of primetime NFL action this season are you surprised the odds makers have this total set in the mid-40s? Trust me it is not a mistake and the books are honestly expecting the same thing I am here and I am looking for 50+ in this one. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky -6 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 7:30 ET - The dominant line here as of early game day morning is 6.5 but there is some 6 out there and I am laying it. I am going to start here by talking about Colorado State which may surprise you but it is with good reason. What does Colorado State have to do with this game? Plenty! The Rams had the memorable devastating double-OT loss to Colorado two weeks ago. They never should have blown the big lead and lost that game and it was heartbreaking. Following the gut-wrenching loss they were going on the road to Middle Tennessee State. Situations from the scheduling gods don't get much better than that for the Blue Raiders. They were catching a team playing B2B games away from home and they were catching them off a soul-crushing loss. How did MTSU handle it? Like the very weak team they are. The Blue Raiders lost outright even though they were favored in that one. Now they face a Western Kentucky team that has dominated them in recent meetings and also comes in angry off B2B losses. The Hilltoppers are going to roll here at home. Not only have they won big in the last two meetings, they are also on a 6-0 ATS run in weeknight home games. You know the Toppers are fired up with this primetime weeknight opportunity on their home field and they will pull away as this one goes along! WKU improves to 7-0 ATS in this spot! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-) |
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09-28-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -120 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles -120 vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:35 ET - I know Chris Sale has been pitching very well for the Red Sox and piling up strikeouts. However, there has been one exception recently and it is nothing new actually this season. Not only did Sale get rocked by the Orioles earlier this month, he also has been hammered by them in all 3 match-ups with them this entire season! In other words, the odds favor another rough outing for him here at Baltimore. As for the Orioles, they are trying to lock up the AL East division and Dean Kremer has solid numbers this season. That said, I am looking for the host to get the win here and I am taking advantage of the line value being afforded by Chris Sale being on the mound for the Red Sox. Note that he has allowed 18 earned runs in 12 innings against them this season and was rocked in all 3 starts. In other words, it is not a fluke and I look for more of the same here. 10* BALTIMORE -120 |
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09-28-23 | Betis v. Granada OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #201849: Spanish La Liga: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Granada vs Real Betis @ 1 ET - I like spots like this where the home club is the lesser team. Generally speaking they will put up a fight on their home pitch but also struggle to stop the opposition. This looks like another one of those situations. Granada is near the very bottom of the La Liga table but is scoring an average of 1.5 goals per match. The issue for them is they are also allowing 3 goals per match. Real Betis is a solid club but has allowed 10 goals in 3 road matches this season. Neither club is happy with their overall performance so far this season and so both will be pushing hard for solid results this week. I expect each club to find the back of the net and note that Granada has not had a draw in any of its 6 matches this season and Real Betis has not had a draw in any of its 3 road matches this season. We should see at least a 2-1 final here the way I forecast this one to play out. 10* OVER 2.5 in Granada |
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09-28-23 | Fiorentina v. Frosinone OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #201229: Italian Serie A: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Frosinone vs Fiorentina @ 12:30 ET - Frosinone on home pitch and the average score of their 3 home matches in league action thus far is 2-2 and there is certainly nothing average about that. They will put up fight here as a host in this one but they will not be able to stop Fiorentina either. Home and away it has not mattered for Fiorentina as they are both scoring an average of 2 goals per match plus conceding 2 goals per match. In 3 matches away, Fiorentina does not yet have a draw and in 3 matches at home Frosinone does not have a draw so there is an extra comfort level here that we see at least a 2-1 final here. Odds are both clubs score - and you can see why per the above - and odds are there is no draw so these factors lend themselves to a 2-1 final at the very least here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Frosinone |
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09-27-23 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Sheehan has been quite impressive at times for the Dodgers but also has been a bit "hit and miss" per se so he is not yet a model of consistency and Coors Field is a tough place to pitch. That said, I am expecting the Rockies to get to him here on a hitter-friendly evening as the weather is good and the ball will be carrying very well as usual at Coors Field. The Rockies are expected to start Davis and he will struggle here against a potent Dodgers team. LA is very relaxed at the plate right now because they are essentially locked into the #2 seed for the post-season. They won't catch the Braves but also the Brewers will not catch them so LA can continue to be very relaxed at the plate. Yesterday Game 2 of the double header was an 11-2 Dodgers win and the first game saw each team just miss the double digit mark in hits though the game stayed well under as Colorado got a surprising win in that opener. The Rockies entered this series having scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games at home and each team used some extra bullpen yesterday. The Dodgers have won 13 of 19 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. They can explode again at Coors Field like they did in yesterday's nightcap but the Rockies should join the hit parade party in this one as well. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado |
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09-27-23 | Pirates +110 v. Phillies | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates +110 @ Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:40 ET - I do not think the Phillies are too concerned with the Pirates right now! They were yesterday but for sure but that 3-2 win in the 10th inning was the first walk-off playoff-clinching home win since 1920 and it came in extra innings after they blew a 2-0 lead. The celebrations at home were huge for Philly last night and I expect a rather disinterested bunch for this one! Conversely, the Pirates are a scrappy group as they showed again yesterday and also Johan Oviedo has been pitching very well. So, even though Ranger Suarez has also been pitching well for the Phillies, I think he could be supported by a different lineup than usual as Philadelphia may rest some guys. Also, any Phillie that does play may not be 100% after last night's post-game festivities. Look for the road dog to take advantage as Oviedo and the Pirates will be the more focused group. 10* PITTSBURGH +110 |
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09-27-23 | Manchester City v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #200661: EFL Cup | Third Round: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Newcastle United vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - This total opened at a 3 and has dropped to a 2.5 in most spots and I am well aware some of the stars may play less here or may not play at all. That's because the EFL Cup truly does not take precedence over the current task at hand which is the English Premier League season. However, even with consideration to this, I feel this total is absolutely a bargain. I do not foresee either club being shutout nor do I foresee either club settling for a draw. So you should be looking at least a 2-1 final here. Keep in mind, I just got burned by Manchester City when I had the over this past week and it was 2-0 after 14 minutes but never got a 3rd goal. A key issue there was a red card right away in the 2nd half for Man City and that completely changed the complexion of the match. I look for City to now be relentless here no matter which personnel are on the pitch. Also note that Newcastle United is coming off an 8-0 thrashing in EPL action and 8 different players scored! Again, this is another reason to like the over here no matter who is on the pitch as the hosts are rolling with confidence after all those guys found the back of the net over the weekend while, of course, the juggernaut that is Man City certainly will play with plenty of attack in them as well for this one. The last two meetings here at St James' Park have totaled 4 and 5 goals, respectively. More of the same on tap here! 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Newcastle United |
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09-27-23 | AC Milan v. Cagliari OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #201205: Italian Serie A: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Cagliari vs AC Milan @ 12:30 ET - The money line on this match looks funny to me as AC Milan is a smaller favorite than expected. I feel this is telling though. The fact is Cagliari has scored only 1 goal in its first five matches this season but they are at home and I feel the odds makers are telling us a little something with this money line! That said, I like the over here. Cagliari is going to put more emphasis on the attack here and they should find the back of the net at least once as they draw a little added confidence from being on their home pitch. Perhaps AC Milan will underestimate them too on their travels as they are allowing 2 goals per match away from home this season. However, AC Milan is also scoring an average of 2 goals per match overall this season in league matches. That said, I am looking for AC Milan to come storming back even if they do get down and, either way, looking for at least a 2-1 final here. Cagliari is known for low-scoring matches but they know they need to get their attack going as they are languishing near the bottom of the table. They are a newly promoted club and I look for AC Milan to look to flex their muscles a bit against them in this one and they may pile up some big scoring opportunities. Look for them to cash in on a few of them along the way! 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Cagliari |