Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-28-21 | Southampton v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Newcastle United vs Southampton @ 10 AM ET - Great set-up here as this is the only match between two winless clubs on Saturday. Both clubs will go very hard to get the full 3 points here in the table and yet I do not foresee either club being held off the scoresheet. In other words, the likelihood of at least a 2-1 game is quite likely here. Newcastle has allowed an average of 3 goals per match on the young season and Southampton has allowed an average of 2 goals per match. The Saints have allowed an average of 3 goals per match in their last 6 matches on enemy pitch in league action. Newcastle has scored at least 1 goal in 11 of last 12 home matches in league action. Southampton off an 8-0 win in English Caraboa Cup action and will fare well here in the goal-scoring department as they are loaded with confidence. However, I do not foresee them slowing down Newcastle at St James Park. In fact, the last 3 meetings here have all been won by the hosts and all have totaled 3 or more goals with the average being 4 goals per match. I am expecting 4 in this one but 3 more gives us a winning ticket and I feel we have strong value here. No club allowed more goals on the road than Southampton last season. Only 2 out of 20 clubs allowed more goals at home than did Newscastle last season. Look for this one to see plenty of goals. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Newcastle United |
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08-27-21 | Reds v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Shocker Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - Given the low ERA numbers of these two starters many will not expect a high-scoring game here. Hence, the shocker aspect of this pick. I do expect it to get crazy early in Miami on Friday. The Marlins are off a big 7-5 win over the Nationals yesterday. The Reds are off a big 5-1 win at Milwaukee yesterday. Cincinnati has won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 7 wins. The Marlins have scored an average of 5.5 runs in back to back wins and should enjoy success against Wade Miley here. The Reds southpaw struggled with 5 hits and 3 walks in less than 5 innings versus Miami in his most recent start and was fortunate the damage was not worse than the 2 earned runs he allowed. Also, the over is 15-7 in his last 3 starts including 3-0 the last 3 and in his last road start Miley allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings. The Marlins start Zach Thompson and he just faced the Reds and had decent success in the 5-inning start but now gives them a quick second look. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and the over trends for each of these starters likely to continue here given the situation and the fact both lineups enter this game with plenty of confidence. 10* OVER 8 runs in Miami |
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08-27-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - JA Happ has been completely rejuvenated since coming to the Cardinals. Also, he has dominated the Pirates twice this month already and, on the season, has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in 3 starts versus Pittsburgh. Happ enters this start undefeated with a 1.99 ERA in his 4 starts since coming to St Louis. Dillon Peters starts for the Pirates here. He was solid against the Cardinals last week and the fact is St Louis generally just does not score well. The Cards scored 7 in yesterday's wild 11-7 game but you can definitely chalk that game up to a statistical anomaly. St Louis, prior to yesterday, had been held to 4 or less runs in 7 of last 8 games. The Cardinals averaged only 2.4 runs in those 7 games. The Pirates had been held to 2.4 runs per game game in going 4-7 last 11 games before yesterday's rare explosion at the plate. Things return to normal tonight. 10* UNDER 9 in Pittsburgh |
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08-26-21 | White Sox -103 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers, this play based on the TEAMS and the situational edges more so than starting pitching: Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line -105 @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 3:07 ET - The Blue Jays got the 3-1 win yesterday behind a very strong start from Robbie Ray. However, Hyun Jin Ryu is no Ray! He is off a good start but allowed 11 earned runs in 10 innings over his prior two starts. Also, he has only recorded 9 strikeouts in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The White Sox start Carlos Rodon here and he has struck out 20 over his last 13 innings of work. He also is coming off a dominating start. Rodon is 6-2 with a 2.21 ERA in his road starts this season. Ryu lost his only start against the White Sox and that was just two months ago. Rodon has been rock solid with a 2.45 ERA in 3 career starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays had lost 8 of 11 games prior to yesterday's win and did not win back to back games a single time during this stretch. Look for the White Sox to bounce back here regardless of the starting pitchers in this match-up. When Chicago is off a non-extra innings defeat that was by 2 or less runs, they have gone 4-0 L4. Look for that White Sox situational streak to improve to 5-0 while the Blue Jays continue their multi-week run of being unable to win back to back games. 10* Chicago White Sox -105 |
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08-25-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 ET - First off, when teams combine for 27 hits in a game those batting lineups are going to carry some confidence into the next day no matter what pitchers they are facing. That said, even though both these pitchers have some strong numbers and overall are well-respected starters, there is reason to believe each guy will struggle some on Wednesday. Keep in mind, we also get a low total - 8.5 - to work with here because of the reputation of these two hurlers. By the way, both bullpens got hit in yesterday's game too. As for these starters, Robbie Ray is on rest of only 4 off days between starts here and he just had his longest start of the season at 8 innings. He threw 109 pitches in that outing and I would not be surprised to see him wear down here against a solid White Sox lineup especially as he gets into the middle innings of this one. As for Lucas Giolito, he is off a 7 inning outing and he has often struggled this season when off an outing of at least 7 innings. Here are few examples of what followed a long outing for Giolito: 7 earned runs in 1 inning; 3 homers in 7 innings; 5 walks and 6 hits for 11 baserunners in 6 innings; and, 3 walks and 6 hits for 9 baserunners in 4 innings. He has truly only been strong one time in five starts this season when he is off an outing in which he threw 7 or more innings. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto |
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08-24-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The MLB Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:07 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel, I look for both these starting pitchers to get hit very hard. Jose Berrios has been roughed up in each of his last two starts. Also, he came to Toronto from Minnesota. Of course the Twins are a division rival of the White Sox. The point is that Chicago has plenty of familiarity with him and he did allow 3 homers in his most recent start against them. Also, this was preceded by Berrios getting hit very hard in one of the two prior starts against the White Sox this season as well. The O/U is 7-3 in Berrios road starts this season. I know this start is a home start for him but it is not his usual home of Minnesota. Yes he pitched well in his first two home starts for Toronto but this will be the most challenging match-up yet. I do look for him to get plenty of run support though as the Blue Jays should pound Dylan Cease. The White Sox right-hander has a 5.86 ERA on the road this season and only 3 of the dozen starts resulted in an under. These two teams have solid lineups even when not 100% healthy and yesterday's game saw them go a combined 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position. I expect much better clutch hitting in this one based on the pitching match-up and we'll see a much higher scoring game today. 10* OVER 9 runs in Toronto |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars +4 v. Saints | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars +4 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The more I looked at this game the more I liked it. The Jaguars have a bad recent preseason history but keep in mind they now have a new coach with Urban Meyer calling the shots. This team is hungry to improve and they certainly played a "cleaner" game last week than the Saints did. Yes both teams are off losses but Jacksonville turned the ball over just once while New Orleans had 6 turnovers in their game against the Ravens. The overall trajectory of these teams is going opposite directions. Of course I am not saying that in a regular season game the Jags are better than the Saints. I am not saying that all. But the point is that the Saints were 12-4 last season but Drew Brees has retired and this team lost a lot of defensive talent from last year's roster. This team will be on the decline this season. As for the Jaguars, off a 1-15 season, of course the only way to go is up but truly this team could be respectable this season and had a strong draft and there is some positive energy within this Jacksonville organization right now. With how sloppy New Orleans was last week, I feel we have a good shot at an outright upset here for the Jaguars and I certainly like the value with the points. Keep in mind, we have seen a good amount of upsets in week 2 of the preseason as well as some underdog ATS covers without notching the upset. Good value here getting a handful of points given all of the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE +4 |
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08-23-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:07 ET - This is a contrarian play because, with these pitchers on the mound, you might first be thinking of an under. However, there is a lot to like here about an over with this play. The White Sox will respond after being shut out at Tampa Bay yesterday. Chicago had scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in last 9 games before that one. The Blue Jays are off a 5-3 extra innings loss that made them use some extra bullpen arms yesterday. That could come into play here as well but the point is that the Blue Jays are also in bounce back mode but could have some trouble in the later innings with their bullpen too. Toronto had scored 5.3 runs per game in their last 7 games against right-handed starters before surprisingly struggling yesterday. Look for them to get back on track versus Lance Lynn as he has great numbers on the season but has been a little off lately. Lynn has allowed 3 homers in 9 innings over his last two starts. Speaking of being off, Alek Manoah just got rocked for the Blue Jays in his most recent outing. That was on the road but he also was not nearly as strong in his most recent home start as he had been for much of this season either. That said, the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and two of those were on the road and now he is at home where the over is 4-1 this season. The over is 5-3 in Lynn's road starts this season. Take advantage of the low total here as these are two solid lineups matching up in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto |
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08-23-21 | Leicester v. West Ham United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
NBCSN Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach EPL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in West Ham United vs Leicester @ 3 ET - West Ham opened the season with a 4-2 win and, dating back to last season, have won 3 straight matches and scored at least 3 goals in all 3 matches. The total on this game is sitting at 2.5 goals and, in theory, you can see why West Ham could arguably get this game over the total all by themselves. However, the travelers from Leicester certainly should enjoy some success in terms of finding the back of the net in this one. I know they scored only one goal last week but it was all the needed in the 1-0 victory but they will need more this week so they will have to be aggressive on the attack. Leicester has been involved in lower-scoring matches recently including a pair of club friendly matches last month and an English FA Community Shield match earlier this month. However, when Leicester matches up with West Ham it tends to be goals aplenty and I do expect the home club to dictate the pace here as well. The last 5 matches between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and the average goals scored was 4 per match. More of the same here! 10* OVER 2.5 goals in West Ham |
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08-22-21 | Marlins v. Reds -137 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers, this play based on the TEAMS moreso than starting pitching: 10* Cincinnati Reds -135 - The Marlins have lost 18 of last 24 road games. This line opened up painted in the -165 range and I even saw a -175 out there. Now it has come down to the -135 range as of very early Sunday morning. This is because Sandy Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins and certainly he commands some respect. But the odds maker knew who was pitching too and yes set the line the way they did for a reason. I feel Cincinnati deserves to be a big favorite here and will take advantage of this lower pricing after the line move. The Marlins Alcantara has struggled much more on the road than at home this season. Prior to a great road outing in his most recent one, Alcantara had allowed 5 homers over his last 2 road starts and 16 earned runs over his last 3 road starts combined. Granted, one of those was at Coors Field but the fact is, prior to a quality start at San Diego, Alcantara had allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 straight road outings and in 5 of 7 outings overall. Also, the Marlins enter this game having lost 11 of 15 games overall and I am expect more struggles here against a red hot Reds team. Cincinnati has won 17 of 25 games. Vladimir Gutierrez has gone at least 6 innings while allowing 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight games and 7 of his last 8 games. Too much small home fave value to pass up on in this one. 10* Cincinnati -135 |
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08-22-21 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
10* OVER 10.5 in Toronto - The Tigers are starting Hutchison and he got hammered and could not find the plate in his first start last week as he lasted less than two innings. Matz starts for the Blue Jays and is off a good road start but has been hit hard in recent home starts. Also, on the season, the Toronto lefty has a 4.57 ERA in home starts and that could easily be worse as he has an ugly 1.66 WHIP as a host this season. I know it has been back to back low-scoring unders so far in this series but look for the finale of the 3-game set to fly over the total. Both teams had been trending over coming into this series and this looks like the perfect pitching match-up for these lineups to come back to life and get off to a hot start and then carry the momentum through the game. Also, the over is 7-2 in Matz home starts this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER 10.5 in Toronto |
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08-22-21 | Giants v. Browns OVER 35 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 35 in Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - Pair of Philly guys, both 39 years old, are squaring off in this coaching match-up. Joe Judge of the Giants and Kevin Stefanski of the Browns both grew up in Philly at the same time and have held joint practices this week leading into this game. This total opened up at a 38.5 and has dropped all the way to a 35. I see good value with the over. Cleveland played fast last week. The game had a good pace for both the Browns and their opponent. Cleveland did blitz some in that game and put quite a bit of pressure on the Jaguars. I do not expect that same aggressive game plan here. I actually expect a bit of a friendly game if you will because of this coaching match-up. That said, the Giants are off a disastrous effort and scored just 7 points last week and need to be much better this week. I feel certain they will open up the offense quite a bit more this week and, even though this game will again be all about the back-ups, look for plenty of points. Both teams cut loose a little bit here and I just do not expect a lot of special defensive scheming, etc. Love fading line moves and based on the Browns being at home and likely to dictate a fast pace again on offense here, I look for this one to fly over the total. 10* OVER 35 in Cleveland |
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08-22-21 | Chelsea -121 v. Arsenal | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
NBCSN Blowout - Rickenbach EPL Sunday 10* Top Play Chelsea Money Line -120 @ Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - While it is difficult to make too many comparisons early in the season here is one for you that matters. Last week, Arsenal lost 2-0 to Brentford - a club that just arrived to Premier League this season. Yesterday Brentford faced Crystal Palace and it was a scoreless draw. That is the same Crystal Palace that Chelsea faced in week one and thrashed 3-0. So as you can see, those signs all point to Chelsea getting the win here and I love this spot because we get line value since Chelsea is on the road for this match. If they were the host they would be to pricey. Ever since Tuchel took over coaching duties for Chelsea they have been a different club but Arsenal did take both matches last season and Tuchel was on the sidelines for one of those. He and the travelers get some payback here as Arsenal is a quality club that often rises up against tougher competition but Chelsea is simply the better and healthier club right now. Also, the revenge factor is a key here and I just do not see the visitors being denied in their quest for payback here. They do not allow many goals at all and will likely deliver a clean sheet here while Arsenal has some question marks defensively and the visitors will take advantage. 10* Chelsea Money Line -120 |
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08-21-21 | Braves v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
IL Blowout - MLB 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - I know I fell short with this play last night but I do expect tonight to make up for it and for a lot of runs to be scored. Entering yesterday's action, as mentioned here in Friday's write-up, the Orioles had a .436 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that ranked 5th in the majors! Braves southpaw Drew Smyly has been struggling recently and this includes away from home where he has a 4.52 ERA on the road this season and the over is 11-2 in those 13 starts. Orioles right-hander Matt Harvey is likely to get rocked as he is 2-7 with a 6.60 ERA in his 11 home starts this season. Harvey, 7.45 ERA last 2 starts, faces a Braves team that is rolling on a hot streak. Atlanta has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game last 11 games and the over was 6-2 last 8 Braves games prior to yesterday's low-scoring win. Orioles pitching, including bullpen, continues to get pounded as they have allowed nearly 9 runs per game during their current 16-game losing streak. 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Baltimore |
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08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - CFL 10* Toronto Argonauts +3.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Look for a strong effort from the Argos here as they play their home opener. They lost at Winnipeg last week so they will take advantage of this shot at revenge right away this week. The Argonauts did get a boost in the game when they made a QB switch and I expect that to wake up the team and give them some momentum for this week's rematch. The Blue Bombers were already down RB Harris but now also lost WR Demski to injury. Things are starting to catch up with this Winnipeg offense and the Argos did do a solid job defensively last week and could be even stronger this week in their home opener in my opinion. That said, value with the home dog in this one. The Blue Bombers did open up as a TD favorite here and are now in the range of a FG but this line move was fully justified based on the Winnipeg injury issues and the fact that the home dog is a revenge-minded one that had some positives to pull from last week's game for sure. 10* TORONTO +3.5 |
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08-21-21 | Bills +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - NFLX 10* Buffalo Bills +4.5 @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - Both teams off wins last week and Chicago did win by 7 while Buffalo won by just 1. However, I was impressed by the Bills defense too and note that they have now won 6 straight preseason games. They opened up as the favorite in this match-up in the early lines but are now a 4.5 point dog. Maybe, after a 6-0 SU win, the Bills do finally drop an NFLX game but that does not mean they do not cover. Many NFLX games are tight and, in fact, Chicago entered this season 3-6 SU the last 2 preseasons and 1 of the wins was by just a single point. The fact is there is too much value here regardless of the plan of how coaches use starters here, etc. Buffalo is the better team and has better depth and that will key the victory in crunch time as the Bills get the job done here. 10* BUFFALO +4.5 |
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08-21-21 | Watford v. Brighton & Hove Albion -135 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
NBC National TV Rout - 10* Brighton & Hove vs Watford @ 12:30 ET - Watford got an opening week win but they are just back up to the Premier League this season after previously being relegated. The last time they played in the top flight they won just 2 of 19 road matches. In other words, do not be surprised if they struggle on the road here after a bit of a surprise win last week for them. Watford is facing a Brighton & Hove team that had a lot of positive energy and emotion coming into the season and it carried right into a positive week one opener. Now, in their home opener and on a positive run in recent home tilts, I do not see the hosts being denied in this one. 10* BRIGHTON & HOVE -135 |
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08-21-21 | Norwich City v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
TV Total Annihilation - 10* OVER 3.5 goals in Manchester City vs Norwich City @ 10 AM ET - After being shutdown by Tottenham in a low-scoring 1-0 battle last week, I do not see Manchester City letting up here. They should score plenty and could get to this total all by themselves but look for Norwich City to find the back of the net at least once and there is a reason Manchester City is a massive favorite on the money line in this match. In other words 3 to 1 or 4 to 0 or 4 to 1 are all logical finals for this one. 10* OVER 3.5 goals in Manchester City |
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08-20-21 | Montreal v. Calgary +5.5 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #674 Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +5.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9:30 ET - Some are surprised at who the starting QB is for Calgary here as they are going with the perceived #3 and letting the #2 serve as the back-up as the #1 guy Bo Levi Mitchell now out with an injury. However, the way I view this is that the Stampeders have seen some good things from the UC-Davis product and he is in line for a big game here. Love the line move as, because of Mitchell's injury, the line has gone from Calgary being about a 2-point favorite to now being a +5.5 dog. The Stampeders were great at home last season but now already off to an 0-2 start at home this season. In other words, the likelihood of them falling into an 0-3 start at home is slim odds in my opinion and I love having the big points. Yes Montreal is off a blowout win last week but the yardage was very nearly equal in their 30-13 win at Edmonton. I do respect the Alouettes but they are over-valued in this spot and the value is with the big home dog no matter who is at the pivot position for the hosts! 10* CALGARY +5.5 |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #404 Friday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8 ET - Both teams won by identical 19-16 scores last week but I like the fact that Arizona's came on a momentum-building last-second field goal. Also, the Cardinals are now getting 3 points as a home dog here. I know that Kansas City is planning to run their starters quite a bit in the first half of this game but this still a Chiefs team that had won just 1 of last 4 road preseason games prior to last week's tight win. It is the back-ups that often decide the final outcome of preseason games. Also, KC went just 1-3 overall in the most recent preseason. The Cardinals have now won 2 of last 3 preseason home games and offer solid value as an underdog here. Arizona proved last week they will push hard to win a preseason game and I look for them to get the job done again this week. If they do fall short the +3 could prove to be great value. 5 of the 16 games last week were decided by 3 or less points. 10* ARIZONA |
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08-20-21 | White Sox v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 102 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - The White Sox have Lucas Giolito on the mound and the over is 9-3 in his road starts this season. He has been hit a little harder in recent starts too as he has struggled in 2 of his last 3 outings. I know Giolito is certainly a solid pitcher overall but this Rays team is swinging very hot sticks right now. Tampa Bay has won 11 of 14 games and scored an average of 7.7 runs per game during this hot stretch. The White Sox are also rolling again overall as they had won 8 of 12 before yesterday's 5-4 loss. Chicago had averaged 5.8 runs per game in those dozen games and should have no trouble with the offerings of Michael Wacha here. The Rays right-hander is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. The over is 10-4-2 in Wacha's 16 starts this season. More of the same on tap here and both teams have huge days at the plate. 10* OVER 9 in Tampa Bay |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #671 Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +4 @ BC Lions @ 10 ET - Statistically, the Elks have been much better than what has been reflected on the scoreboard the first two weeks. That is helping lead to line value here especially with Edmonton available at +4 in this one. The road team is a perfect 2-0 ATS in BC games this season and 2-0 SU/ATS in Elks games this season and I look for that trend to continue here but will grab the points as added insurance. Keep in mind, the Lions lost in Week 1 by just 4 points and Edmonton also lost in Week 1 by just a 4-point margin. 10* EDMONTON +4 |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #402 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 vs New England Patriots @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles blew a 13-0 late 1st half lead last week and lost 24-16 as they are outscored 24-3 the rest of the way. Philadelphia is likely to struggle in the regular season this year but keep in mind this is preseason. With a first year head coach who demands plenty from his players, I look for a much better effort this week after the ugly 2nd half last week for the Eagles. As for the Patriots, a long TD run is what sealed their victory last week as they were clinging a 2-point lead at the time. The key here is that other than that run, one could easily argue that Washington was the much better team in that game. The Pats, not including that long TD run, were outgained by 138 yards. New England is 1-2 SU/ATS the last 2 preseasons when off a home win and they allowed an average of 25.3 points per game in those 3 games. Look for them to struggle again on the road in that role here and the Eagles bounce back from last week's second half debacle. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 |
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08-19-21 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:05 ET - I know neither one of these lineups have been juggernauts in terms of scoring runs of late but this looks like the perfect match-up for a breakthrough game for each. That said, I love the value of this very low total, 8.5, for an American League game when you consider the pitching match-up here. Chris Flexen has struggled throughout his career and after a surprising run through much of this season, particularly in his home starts, he is starting to revert back to normal of late. Flexen has been hit much harder over his last 4 starts. Also, on the season he has proven to be much more susceptible to getting roughed up on the road and that was also true in his lone start at Texas earlier this season. Flexen has a 5.44 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents are hitting .327 against him away from home. The Rangers start former Phillie Spencer Howard here and the Mariners just faced him in his most recent start. This is a big edge to the hitters and they will get to him this time around. Though he was successful in that outing, Howard only lasted 3 innings and now Seattle gets another look. Keep in mind, he entered that start with an 8.03 ERA over his 3 prior starts. Return to normal here and both teams see their lineups have big games here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas |
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08-18-21 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - This total is an 8.5 and it is a contrarian play because both Shohei Ohtani and Tarik Skubal have been pitching well of late. However, I like the over here as Skubal is going to return to norms as I am expecting a regression to the mean. Also, the Angels exploding for 6 runs in the top of the 9th yesterday gives this team a ton of momentum heading into today's match-up. As for Ohtani, he has been known to be a much better pitcher at home in comparison with on the road. That said, I do expect some struggles for him here. He entered this season with a 6.20 ERA in his career on the road and he has a 4.54 ERA in his 7 road starts this season and that is even including a good one in his most recent outing. I know the Tigers offense has been quite in the past two games but this followed Detroit scoring an average of 6 runs a game over 6 prior games. The Angels have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their last 4 road wins and Skubal's most recent home start was a good one but that was preceded by him allowing 3 homers in his prior home start. Just a strong feeling here that the Angels carry momentum from yesterday's huge 9th inning while the Tigers also hit well as Ohtani has some road struggles as his long-term tendency for that resumes here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-17-21 | Braves v. Marlins +118 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
ACTION on the pitchers. This is a TEAM based money line play. NO listed pitchers: Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Marlins +115 vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - Yes the Braves have been very hot but the Marlins are a respectable home team and will bounce back after yesterday's ugly loss. Miami has a starting pitching edge. Additionally their home bullpen ERA is a full run lower than Atlanta's road bullpen ERA. I like the fact that Sandy Alcantara has a 2.58 ERA at home this season. Also, the Marlins are 5-2 in Alcantara's career starts against the Braves and he has a solid 3.14 ERA in those 7 outings. The Braves are starting Huascar Ynoa and he was strong against Marlins in most recent outing but struggled when he first faced them and now this is the first time he will be starting at Miami. Note that Ynoa is 1-2 with a 4.87 ERA in road outings this season. The Marlins had won 4 straight games overall and 4 straight home games before yesterday's embarrassing defeat. Perfect time to back them for a bounce back effort on Tuesday. 10* MIAMI +115 |
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08-17-21 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
NOTE: Drew Rasmussen is making just his 4th start of the season and is averaging only 3 innings per start. He is not a true starter. The Rays could change their mind and use an opener and then let Rasmussen get the bulk of the work - 3 or 4 innings. That said, I just want to emphasize that, just like yesterday's play involving these teams, I do not care who the starting pitchers are for either team. If possible, I would recommend to bet this total at a book that has action on pitchers on all bets in MLB. Either way, I am telling you straight away that if there is a pitching change, this is still a play for me and I would recommend to re-bet it if you did not already have action: Total of the Month: Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - As for the Orioles, John Means is scheduled to start. With how hot the Rays bats have been it does not matter whom Baltimore starts here and plus the Orioles bullpen has been dreadful and that continued yesterday. As for Means, he has a decent ERA his last 3 starts but his numbers, particularly in his last 2 starts, have certainly left a lot to be desired and this is helping to lead to value in this spot. Means has allowed 16 hits in just 9 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts and that including giving up just 1 earned run but 8 hits to the Rays. Also, Means just got absolutely destroyed by the Tigers when he gave them a quick 2nd look and now he is doing the same by facing this hot Tampa Bay lineup again after just seeing them two starts ago - exact same situation he just had relating to Detroit. Also, the Rays are on an 8-2 run to the over as TB has been hot. The Rays have scored an average of nearly 9 runs per game in their last 8 victories. The Orioles have allowed an average of about 9 runs per game last 12 games! Also, the Orioles had scored an average of 5 runs per game in last 6 games versus Rays prior to being held to just 2 runs yesterday. They should fare better today plus the TB bats should remain FIRE! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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08-16-21 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
NOTE: Fleming likely to get most of the work for Rays while McHugh will serve as an opener here. I do not care who the starting pitchers are for either team. If possible, I would recommend to bet this total at a book that has action on pitchers on all bets in MLB. Either way, I am telling you straight away that if there is a pitching change, this is still a play for me and I would recommend to re-bet it if you did not already have action: Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Collin McHugh expected to only serve as an opener here so lets discuss Josh Fleming as he is projected to get most of the action. Fleming has been hit hard and has a 10.13 ERA in his last 3 starts and the over is 7-4 in his 11 starts this season. Again, I know he is not the listed starter here but essentially he is the starter by virtue of getting most of the work here. As for the Orioles Matt Harvey is scheduled to start. With how hot the Rays bats have been it does not matter whom Baltimore starts here and plus the Orioles bullpen has been dreadful. As for Harvey, he has a decent ERA his last 3 starts but his numbers, particularly in his last 2 starts, have certainly left a lot to be desired and this is helping to lead to value in this spot. Harvey got absolutely destroyed by Tampa Bay earlier this season. Also, the Rays are off a 5-4 loss that stayed under the total but this was preceded by a 7-1 run to the over as TB had been hot. The Rays have scored an average of nearly 9 runs per game in their last 7 victories. The Orioles are off a 6-2 loss that stayed under the total but Baltimore has allowed an average of about 9.5 runs per game last 11 games! Also, the Orioles have scored an average of 5 runs per game in last 5 games versus Rays. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Run Line Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs -100 @ New York Mets @ 7:08 ET - The Dodgers are without Mookie Betts but Justin Turner got back on the field yesterday and will likely be in the starting lineup tonight. If Betts was available of course this line would be even higher but I am taking advantage of the added line value here. The Dodgers are available at practically even money on the run line in this game and this is superb value in my opinion. The Dodgers have won 9 of 12 games. The Mets have lost 11 of 16. I know there have been some tight 1-run games included in these stretches for each team but I fully expect a blowout here. Carlos Carrasco is simply "not right" yet and he showed that again in his most recent rain-shortened start (he likely would have been pulled early) while Max Scherzer dominated in his most recent start which was also shortened by rain. Carrasco has a 6.75 ERA in his 3 starts and has been hit hard. Scherzer has a dominating 2.67 ERA on the season and a 1.65 ERA in his last 3 starts and continues to be a strikeout machine. Considering his strong current form and the fact that this is his first start against the Mets this season, look for New York's lineup to struggle badly as the strikeouts pile up and contact made is likely to be weak. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS Run Line -1.5 runs -100 |
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08-15-21 | Manchester City v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
NBCSN Blowout Rout - Rickenbach EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City @ 11:30 AM ET - Of course these are two of the best clubs in the league and they are equally strong on defense as well on the attack. Those balanced attributes are what helped lead to successful campaigns last season for each club. That said it is hard to argue against the strengths of the defense and goalkeeping of each of these clubs. However, I like all the Harry Kane drama surrounding this match-up and the fact that Tottenham made some key offseason acquisitions to strengthen their club plus they have a new head coach in Nuno Espírito Santo and he had enjoyed success at Wolverhampton. Manchester City averaged scoring 2.2 goals last season and Tottenham averaged 1.8 goals per game. That totals 4 goals and while I do not necessarily expect that many here I do feel we should get at least 3. Just so much firepower for each club and I do not see either team being shutout. Nor do I foresee either team being willing to settle for a draw. That said, if this game gets to 1-1 each club will be gunning hard for that 2-1 win and will be willing to take some risk by being aggressive on the attack. A lot of positive dynamics for an over in this one in my opinion. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Tottenham |
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08-14-21 | Hamilton +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 8-30 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
ESPNews Network Rout - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +1.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 10 ET - Saskatchewan off a non-covering win in which they nearly entirely blew a 31-0 lead in their season opener. That gives me some major question marks about the Roughriders defense but really this play is more about taking an extremely good team as an underdog coming off a loss. Yes we faded Hamilton with Winnipeg in Week 1 and got the win but the Blue Bombers, now 2-0 on the season, certainly look quite strong. Also, the Tiger-Cats were done in by turnovers in that game and that is helping to give us line value here as the Blue Bombers defense has looked strong this season. Hamilton will take advantage of a leaky Riders defense in this one and I look for the hungry Ti-Cats, a true Grey Cup favorite this season, to gets into the win column! 10* HAMILTON |
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08-14-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:10 ET - The Orioles were held to just 1 run yesterday and that was the difference in the game staying under the total as the Red Sox did explode for 8 runs in that game. Today I look for the Boston bats to again be rolling but, this time, the Baltimore bats should enjoy some success too. Chris Sale, of course, brings a certain reputation to the mound. But this will be his first MLB start in two years. Coming back from a major elbow issue, Sales will not work very deep into this game. Also, the last time he hosted the Orioles he did allow 3 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Jorge Lopez starts for the visitors in this one. I know he has some decent stats of late but Lopez also has a 7.45 ERA in his two starts versus the Red Sox this season. Boston enters this game scoring an average of 8.2 runs last 5 games. The Orioles have allowed 9.1 runs last 9 games. The Orioles lead the AL in slugging percentage versus southpaws this season so could surprise here with some success versus Sale. Also, over the past week, Baltimore is hitting .262 and the Red Sox are hitting .286 and we should see plenty of scoring today. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-14-21 | Liverpool v. Norwich City OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
NBC Total of the Week - Rickenbach EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals in Norwich City vs Liverpool @ 12:30 ET - Liverpool known for some crazy high-scoring matches to begin new seasons and last year was no exception. This season they are on the road at Norwich City and I am aware that the last time these clubs met was a 1-0 Liverpool win. However, 3 of the 4 prior meetings totaled at least 5 goals and I would not be surprised to see today's match do the same. Liverpool finished last season well but they know they were fortunate to have some help from other clubs in the way things finished out. That said, they want to do a better job of having strong early season success this year and I expect them to view this as a statement match. In other words, Liverpool will be strong on the attack throughout this game and will not take their foot off the gas. Norwich City, though at home, also fully realizes they are a bit outclassed here. That said, they will not be able to stop Liverpool but they have some talented forwards that will be a little extra aggressive on the counter-attack which should lead to a goal or two for a club that was very impressive last season and certainly earned their promotion to the premier league for this season. Look for an entertaining affair with plenty of scoring to wrap up Saturday's slate of matches. 10* OVER 3 goals in Norwich City |
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08-13-21 | Toronto v. Winnipeg OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts @ 8:30 ET - The early line on this total was a 47.5 and it dropped to a 46.5 but where it goes from there is a big question mark as the odds makers have been slow putting up numbers on CFL action early this season. In any event, I am going big on the over here as both teams are off victories last week in which they each received strong QB play. Also, Blue Bombers still missing RB Andrew Harris which could make them pass even more which is good for an over. Toronto was a pass-heavy team last week and that should continue here. Winnipeg off big win in a Grey Cup rematch and Argonauts off big upset road win. That sets this one up well for a bit of a letdown for each defense and we have good value with the early line movement on an already low total. I know we have seen a lot of unders so far in this young season but this one should play out much differently. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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08-13-21 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator – Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 7 ET – The Tigers scored 6 runs yesterday but the game just stayed under the total. Detroit has been piling up hits lately and also should have no trouble with the offering of a struggling Zach Plesac. The Indians just got hammered 17-0 yesterday and now send Plesac to the hill likely to see more big runs scored. Plesac has a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts and all went over the total. The Tigers are 3-1 to the over in Tyler Alexander’s home starts this season. The fact that Cleveland just saw him is likely to help the hitters too. Alexander did enjoy some surprising success in that start but this is still a guy that is getting hit at a .284 clip at the MLB level. Alexander is a lefty and the Indians are 3-1 to the over in last 4 road games against a left-handed starter and they scored an average of 6.3 runs in those 4 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons -115 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter – Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (Pick) vs Tennessee Titans @ 7 ET – I like that fact that new Falcons head coach Arthur Smith was most recently the offensive coordinator for Tennessee the past two seasons and, overall, had spent the past decade coaching in the Titans organization. The Falcons do not have a good history in pre-season recently but keep in mind the Titans are only 2-6 in preseason under Vrabel. Also, Atlanta should be the hungrier team here with a new coach and ready to turn things around after a 4-12 season. The fact he is facing his former team sweetens this one. There is a reason the normally better regular season team in this match-up is actually the dog. Do not let the line fool you. Grab the home team. 10* ATLANTA |
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08-13-21 | Arsenal -116 v. Brentford | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBCSN Daytime Rout – Rickenbach EPL Friday 10* Top Play Arsenal Money Line -115 vs Brenford @ 3 ET – Brentford had the better preseason results but, just as in other sports, one must be careful to not put too much weight into preseason results. Also, Brentford just got elevated to the Premier League for the first time ever but none of the 9 London teams before them to accomplish the feat have ever won their first fixture in EPL regular season action. I look for that trend to continue here and we have enough line value with Arsenal being the road team in this match that we are able to go with a top play here. For the first time in 25 years Arsenal, in excruciating fashion on the last day of last season, did not qualify for European competition. I fully believe we are going to see some extra hunger here from the visitors as a result and they are the more talented club and will spoil the home opener for the Bees. Brentford has waited 74 years for this chance at top flight league action but are facing a very tough opening match and the hunger will be there for the road team to take the full 3 points in this one. 10* ARSENAL -115 |
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08-12-21 | BC v. Calgary -7 | Top | 15-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #680 Thursday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs BC Lions @ 9:30 ET - The early line on this game was a 6.5 but where it goes from there is a big question mark as the odds makers have been slow putting up numbers on CFL action early this season. In any event, I am going big on the Stampeders here as they blew a 20-12 lead in the 4th quarter to lose their opener to Toronto. Calgary is well aware of the fact that BC rallied from a 31-0 deficit to put a scare into the Roughriders last week at Saskatchewan. The Riders appeared to let up with a big lead and the Stamps will not make the same mistake here and should prove to be the better team on the ground in this one as well. 10* CALGARY |
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08-12-21 | Steelers v. Eagles | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #106 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (PK) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles had a horrible season last year and are likely destined for another rough one this year. However, Philly does have a new coach and a young one at that. Nick Sirianni will be hungrier than most in the preseason and is going to demand a high compete level from his team even in a meaningless game. This Eagles team is going to struggle in the regular season barring a miracle turnaround because they need to time to jell and have had major roster turnover in recent seasons. However, in the preseason they could be a bit of a surprise given all of the above factors. The Steelers do have a solid preseason history including going in recent seasons but still went just 1-1 on the road in each of the last two preseasons. Coming off a win over the Cowboys in the HOF Game last week makes this road game even less important for the Steelers. As for the Eagles, new head coach Sirianni and company will be desperate for something to latch onto early in the year and that includes preseason where many roster battles are going on. 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em |
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08-12-21 | Tigers v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers @ 4:05 ET - The Tigers and Orioles combined for 20 hits in yesterday's game after combining for 19 hits in Tuesday's game. Even though there were more hits yesterday there were only 7 runs scored after the teams combined for 13 runs on Tuesday. The fact is the teams are swinging hot bats and that should continue here and this one should make up for yesterday's shortfall of runs. The Orioles are starting John Means and he has been a little harder in each of his last two home starts and overall the over is 4-2 in his home starts this season. The Tigers are starting Matt Manning and he is 0-4 with a 9.13 ERA in his road starts this season. Manning has a 7.36 ERA in his last 3 starts and that includes getting hit hard by the Orioles but 3 of the 5 runs were unearned. In other words, his ERA last 3 starts could easily be higher. Look for plenty of runs here as these are also two of the worst bullpens in the league too. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-12-21 | Cardinals -120 v. Pirates | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers: Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Thursday 10* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 12:35 ET - It is not pretty but LeBlanc continues to find a way to have some success on the mound and he faces a Pittsburgh team that has lost 7 straight games and 9 of 10. It is just too much to ignore especially with the Pirates starting JT Brubaker in this one. Pittsburgh is 5-15 in his starts this season and he is coming off an ugly one and he is 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA against the Cardinals this season. 10* ST LOUIS -120 |
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08-11-21 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NL Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins @ 4:10 ET - The Padres have the best bullpen in the majors on the season and the Marlins are not far behind. I say this based on ERA on the season. However, if you look at those same rankings over time periods like last 7 days, last 15 days, last 30 days then you will find the Padres ranking only in the middle of the pack while the Marlins are near the bottom. That said, and with the recent high-scoring trending of these two teams as well as two starting pitchers likely to struggle and the fact this is a day game at Petco Park all factors are combining to suggest an over in this one. I also like the early line move which was from an 8.5 down to an 8. The Marlins are 8-1 to the over last 9 games. The Padres are 8-1-1 to the over last 10 games. Miami's Sandy Alcantara is off a disastrous road start at Colorado and has struggled more on the road than at home this season. The over is 4-0-1 in games between these teams this season and the Padres start a struggling Randy Weathers here. The southpaw has allowed 14 earned runs in 7 innings spanning his last two starts and both of those were at home where he has worse numbers than on the road this season. As you an see, all signs pointing to a high-scoring game here and yet we have a low number to work with. These teams each pounded out a dozen hits yesterday and the Padres continue to score quite well even without the injured Fernando Tatis. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
IL Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies at 8:10 ET - The Rockies have been hitting quite well and no it has not just been at Coors Field either. That said, I look for the bats to stay hot here as Houston's Jake Odorizzi has an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts and all 3 starts went over the total. The key to an over here is that, though Jon Gray has pitched well for the Rockies, I expect to struggle with this potent Astros lineup as they are at home for this one. Houston is getting a 2nd look at Gray as they faced him earlier this season. The right-hander has a 4.40 ERA in road starts this season and allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts plus is coming off a home outing in which he allowed 8 hits in 6 innings. The Astros have had only 4 unders in their past dozen games. Houston has scored an average of 5.8 runs per game during this stretch. The Rockies are 9-3 to the over in past dozen games and have scored an average of 7.4 runs per game during this stretch. As long-time followers know I like to take overs when a home team has a struggling hurler on the mound. That means the road team should get their fair share of runs and I have no question the home team should get their fair share as well as the Astros are a strong team at home. 10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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08-10-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -110 vs Los Angeles Dodgers at 7:05 ET - Without a shadow of doubt the Dodgers are a strong team and Max Scherzer is a great pitcher. However, the Phillies have won 8 straight games and are at home and have Aaron Nola on the mound. To get Philadelphia in this situation at +1.5 runs and a pick'em price range is too strong of a value to pass up on. Keep in mind, the Phillies are very familiar with Scherzer as up until just recently he was pitching for the division rival Nationals. That said, even though he has had success against them this season, this Phillies lineup has a ton of confidence right now and are familiar with his offerings. As for the Dodgers, they are not as a strong of a team when on the road and have lost 7 of last 13 away from home. The Phillies have won 6 of 9 Nola home starts this season and he has a 3.18 ERA at home and this is his first start against the Dodgers in over two years and that is an edge for him. This should be a tight ball-game and having the extra run and half on our side could prove to be the difference but I would not be surprised to see the Phillies win outright either. We'll grab the added insurance with hottest team in baseball. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line +1.5 -110 |
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08-09-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-1 | Win | 101 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Bullpen game likely for Minnesota. We will play the over regardless of the pitching match-up in this game. Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox at 8:10 ET - Minnesota is off a 7-5 win and the White Sox off a 9-3 win. Just like those games yesterday for each respective club, do not be surprised if this game also gets into double digits in runs scored. The over is 8-3 with one push in the last dozen Twins games. Minnesota has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during this stretch and now face Chicago's Lucas Giolito. The White Sox right-hander just allowed 6 earned runs in four innings and note that the over is 8-3 in his road starts this season. Though Beau Burrows is getting the start for the Twins here as an opener, or at least expected to, note that Charlie Barnes is actually expected to be the long guy in this one. Barnes allowed 5 earned runs in just four innings in his most recent start and the White Sox have hit Minny really well this season. Prior to a 7-2 loss in most recent meeting, Chicago had scored 6.6 runs last 9 meetings. The over is 10-5-1 in the 16 meetings between these teams this season. By now, the hitters have a lot of familiarity with the respective relievers for each team too. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Giolito's road starts this season as this one gets into double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Minnesota |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
PA Dominator: 10* OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia - The Phillies have now won 7 straight games and scored an average of 7.4 runs per game in the process. I know the Mets have not been scoring well but they have seen former Met Zack Wheeler plenty this season and he enters this game after allowing 7 earned runs in his last two starts combined. Something tells me he will struggle some today. Speaking of struggling having allowed some runs of late, New York's Taijuan Walker is 0-3 with a 9.20 ERA in his last three starts. Walker allowed multiple homers in each of the three starts. Walker allowed four earned runs the last time he visited Philly. Wheeler allowed four earned runs the last time he hosted the Mets. The Phillies bullpen is still quite shaky too but their lineup remains hot. Look for the finale of this 3-game set to find its way over the total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia |
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08-08-21 | Mariners v. Yankees -128 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ACTION on the pitchers as this is all about the HOT team and the HOT bats with this play: Game of the Week: 10* New York Yankees Money Line -128 - The Yankees apparently have no chance to win this game. The line opened up as high as -162 and is now down to as low as a -128 as of about 7 AM ET. Of course I am kidding about the lack of a chance to win as truly these are the spots I love as we are getting much more line value than we should so I will not hesitate to step in here. Note that the Mariners have lost four straight and eight of eleven games. Conversely, the Yankees have won five straight and ten of twelve games. Not only are the Yankees the much hotter team, Seattle will be seeing Luis Gil for the first time and I like the fact that his MLB debut was also here at Yankee Stadium and he pitched very well and had good command. That was really the only issue that got him in the minors at times was too many walks but he has proven to be tough to hit. Coming off a confidence-boosting blowout win in his first ever MLB start, I look for Gil to build off the momentum here. As for the Mariners Yusei Kikuchi, I know he has decent numbers this season including solid strikeout numbers. However, he has allowed 5 earned runs each of the last two times he has faced the Yankees and that includes once this season. Also, I know New York has some injury issues right now - including effecting their bullpen too - but they are still the better overall team right now. Speaking specific to the hitters with experience against Kikuchi, note that Gallo, Gardner, and Judge are only hitting .250 against him but the 4 for 16 includes ALL FOUR hits being homers. Also, LeMahieu Stanton and Torres all hitting .333 against Kikuchi with 6 hits in 18 at bats. 10* New York Yankees Money Line -128 |
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08-07-21 | Ottawa +7 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN2 Game of the Week - 10* OTTAWA +7 - I know QB Matt Nichols is questionable for this game but I doubt he'll miss it and they do have some options behind him. That being said, I also feel - though it is hard to fully judge early in the season - the Redblacks could very well have the better defense in this match-up. That said, there is a reason why this line is below a full TD as it opened up. Edmonton was only an 8-10 team last season and thy have some question marks, particularly on defense, entering the new season. That said, I really like the defensive coordinator - Benevides - for Ottawa here and feel the defensive schemes could be a difference in this game. He used to be with Edmonton and knows them well. Whether that leads to an outright upset remains to be seen but I do feel it means that if the Elks do prevail here it will be by the slimmest of margins. Good value with the points in this one. 10* OTTAWA +7 |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
AL Central Total of the Month 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cleveland - The Tigers are on a long under streak. However, the Indians were on a 5-2 run to the over before back to back unders and this game has the makings of a crazy one. Detroit, before being held to a single run yesterday, had scored an average of 5.8 runs last ten games. Cleveland has had some duds in 3 of their last 9 games but has averaged 6.7 runs in the other 6 games and not scored less than four in any of those six games. This certainly looks like a good game for the bats to be very much alive again - 15 hits for the Indians in yesterday's game - as Tyler Alexander has a 5.30 ERA on the season and has been roughed up in each of his past two starts. Eli Morgan starts for Cleveland here and he gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in a start versus the Tigers two months ago. Overall, Morgan has an 8.81 ERA in his four home starts this season and the O/U is 3-1 in those. The O/U is 4-2 in all of Alexander's starts today. Detroit has scored at least 5 runs each of the last 3 times they were off a game in which they were held to 2 runs or less. At the same time, the Indians should definitely have another big game at the plate here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cleveland |
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08-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -104 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ACTION on the pitchers as this all about the HOT team and the HOT bats with this play: PA Dominator 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA -105 - There is an aura about this Phillies team right now. They are riding a 6-game winning streak and you can see with the way they are playing on the field that they have a certain confidence and swagger right now that is certainly tough for opponents to overcome. Speaking of overcoming, the Phillies took over first place in the division from the Mets with yesterday's key win and I just don't see them slowing down. Suarez had been a reliever all this season, and a great one at that, but now has moved into the starters role. He may again only go 3 innings like he did in his first start but the key to this play has much more to do with overall team play right now. The Mets have lost 7 of 9 games and Megill is winless in his 3 road starts and coming off a rough one at Miami. Pitching against a red hot Phillies team in their own yard is unlikely to help matters for the New York right-hander. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105 |
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08-06-21 | BC v. Saskatchewan -6.5 | Top | 29-33 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN+ Top Play - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #674 Friday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders -6.5 vs BC Lions @ 9:30 ET - I know that hope springs eternal at the start of a season but I just do not think the Lions have what it takes and there are going to be some growing pains as they look to rebound from last year's poor season. Not only did BC go just 5-13 last season they were 0-10 in divisional games. Conversely, Saskatchewan is known for being tough to play at home annually and last season was no different. The Roughriders were a fantastic 8-1 in home games last season. With a raucous sold out crowd likely - the prairie region of Canada is where CFL is most popular - look for the home team to roll by a big margin in this one. The average margin of loss was 15.4 in the Lions 5 road losses to divisional opponents last season and this included 4 of the 5 by at least points. BC lost all 3 games with the Roughriders and those defeats were by margin of 16 points per game. The Lions offense might keep them in this game a little bit early on but eventually the home team should pull away in this game and win by a double digit margin. 10* SASKATCHEWAN -6.5 |
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08-06-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
AL East Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:07 ET - The Red Sox only scored 1 run yesterday but pounded out 9 hits but left 11 men on base thanks in large part to going 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position. All of this is serving to give us some line value here as Boston should have scored much more yesterday. Now they face Alek Manoah who has great numbers so far in his rookie season. The key here, and I have used this angle with great success through the years in terms of rookie pitchers, he will be facing Boston for the 2nd time now. This season, there are two other teams he faced twice and, in both cases, one was a solid outing and the other one was not. This is a normal trending with young pitchers and I expect it to continue with Manaoh here. Two months ago he was successful against the Red Sox and now Boston will get to him in the rematch. The good news for Manoah is he should get plenty of run support from his teammates here. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has struggled in 3 of his last 4 road outings. The Blue Jays enter this game having won 7 of 8 games and playing with a lot of confidence as a result of that plus finally being back at their true home at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Jays have scored an average of 6 runs per game in these 8 games. The over is 4-1 this season in games in which the Blue Jays were the host and that trend should continue here now that they are back north of the border too. Excellent line value with this total dropping to a 9 and I won't hesitate to go to my highest level with this play. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies -101 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -101 vs New York Mets at 7:05 ET - The Phillies keep finding a way as they have had some big rallies including the 9th inning variety during their current 5-game winning streak. While they have been rolling the Mets have been scuffling and I look for Philadelphia to make the most of this opportunity to take over first place in the division with a win tonight. Recently acquired Kyle Gibson makes his home debut with the Phillies. He is off a strong debut in a Phillies uniform on the road and now will be pitching as the host. That is a role that saw him go 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his 9 home starts for Texas and the Rangers went 8-1 in those games. The Mets have not faced him in the starting role in over two years. Conversely, the Phillies are very familiar with Marcus Stroman as they have already seen him three times. Though he enjoyed success in the first two starts the third time was the charm for the Phillies hitters and they got to him in that outing. Now he enters this start having given up 16 hits in less than 11 innings spanning his past two starts so this looks like the ideal spot for the Phillies roll to continue. The Mets are 5-9 last 14 games and have scored an average of just 3 runs per game during this rough stretch. The Phillies have scored an average of 8.6 runs per game during their red-hot 5-game winning streak and are loaded with momentum right now. 10* PHILADELPHIA -101 |
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08-05-21 | Phillies -139 v. Nationals | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -140 @ Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - There are not many streaks going in the majors right now but, after back to back wins so far in this series, the Phillies 4-gamer is the longest win streak and the Nationals 3-gamer is the longest losing streak. Overall Washington has been on a long fade while the Phillies have been building up momentum and are staying in striking distance of the Mets for the top spot in the division. Joe Ross starts for Washington and the bad news for him is that this start at home! Seriously though Ross has been struggling at home with 15 runs (14 earned) in 22 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 home starts. He has allowed 5 homers in those 3 starts. I know he has had some success against the Phillies this season but, right now, he is facing a confident group that has scored a ridiculous average of 9 runs per game during this 4-game streak. This line opened up in the -165 range for a reason and early action brought it down to the -140 range. I will fade the early move and it is go time now with this one as Aaron Nola has been fantastic in his last two starts plus has a 2.14 ERA in his last 3 starts against Washington. Road rout likely here as the struggles of Ross continues and Nola continues his sharp form and piles up the strikeouts when he needs them here even if Nats do threaten a time or two in this game. 10* PHILADELPHIA -140 |
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08-03-21 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 10 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - The over is 8-2 in last 10 games between these two teams. Boston is 8-4 to the over in Garrett Richards road starts this season. Richards has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 5 homers in his last two starts. The Tigers start Wily Peralta here and he has allowed 4 homers in his last two starts while compiling an 11.00 ERA in these two outings! Red Sox bats come back to life here and the over improves to 4-1 their last 5 games with a high-scoring battle here. The Tigers have been trending under but have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 11 games and I am expecting both starters to struggle here. Also, Detroit's bullpen has a 5.00 ERA this season and the Boston pen has a 4.85 ERA last 30 days. Don't be surprised if plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest as a result. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-03-21 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -105 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - As mentioned right here in yesterday's write-up, the Phillies certainly proved that they are "going for it" this season with all the moves they made at the trade deadline. With newly acquired starting pitcher Kyle Gibson coming up big for them, the Phillies rolled 15 to 4 Sunday. They had a hugely productive day at the plate as that was the first time in 80 years a Phillies team had scored 15 runs in a game without even a single homer. In other words their run production without home run power was huge in that game. Now bolstered by a huge 5-run 9th inning yesterday and an eventual 7-5 win, they now are just 2.5 games out of 1st place in the division and this is with 2 months of baseball left. Of course the Nationals still have life in the division too but Washington has been going the wrong direction. After yesterday's defeat, the Nats have lost 19 of 28 games. Zach Wheeler starts for the Phillies and he has a 2.45 ERA on the season and has deserved a much better won-loss record. The fact is that he has been fantastic and the Phillies are big road favorites here for a reason. We get value by avoiding laying the big juice and playing Philadelphia on the run line. Wheeler should get plenty of run support as his teammates should pound Patrick Corbin. The Washington left-hander has seen the Nationals lose each of his last 3 starts as he has compiled an 8.05 ERA and has a 1.85 WHIP in those 3 outings. Corbin allowed 3 homers against the Phillies in his most recent start. To put that in proper perspective, Wheeler has allowed only 2 homers total in 8 road starts this season! He also is likely to work deeper into this game than Corbin and that minimizes the bullpen usage. Neither pen has been impressive this season but the Phils pen was bolstered at the trade deadline and overall they have been the better team over the past month in comparison with the fading Nationals. Lay the small price on the RUN LINE with the road team in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs -105 |
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08-02-21 | Phillies -121 v. Nationals | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies certainly proved that they are "going for it" this season with all the moves they made at the trade deadline. With newly acquired starting pitcher Kyle Gibson coming up big for them, the Phillies rolled 15 to 4 yesterday. They had a hugely productive day at the plate as that was the first time in 80 years a Phillies team had scored 15 runs in a game without even a single homer. In other words their run production without home run power was huge in that game. They now are just 3.5 games out of 1st place in the division and this is with 2 months of baseball left. Of course the Nationals still have life in the division too but Washington has been going the wrong direction. Before eking out a 6-5 win yesterday, the Nats had lost 18 of 26 games. I know Josiah Gray was a key prospect for the Dodgers but he is still a young unproven hurler (at the MLB level) and don't be surprised if he struggles some here. He has hardly pitched above the AA level of minors and struggled in spring training action at the MLB level too! As for Phillies starter Ranger Suarez he may not work deep in this game either but the Phils bullpen is ready here and Suarez has a 1.12 ERA and a .152 BAA this season. He has been fantastic and the Phillies are road favorites here for a reason. Neither pen has been impressive this season but the Phils pen was bolstered at the trade deadline and overall they have been the better team over the past month in comparison with the fading Nationals. Lay the small price. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-02-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Network Day Game - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians @ 3:07 ET - The Blue Jays are on an under trend but a lot of that had to with the opposition they were facing. Toronto has been scoring just fine with an average of 7 runs scored during their 4-game winning streak. Now instead of hosting a Royals team that is again on the fade, the Jays are hosting an Indians team that has an O/U record of 29-10-1 in their 40 games against left-handed starters this season. Yes the Indians lost a low-scoring 2-1 game yesterday but they have still averaged scoring 6 runs per game last 4 games. Cleveland will be facing Robbie Ray. The Toronto left-hander has seen the over go 2-0 in his last 2 home starts and he allowed 3 homers in his most recent start as a host. A big key to this over today is that the Blue Jays should pound the Indians Eli Morgan. The Cleveland right-hander has a 7.47 ERA this season and the over is 5-2 in his 7 starts. This included Morgan getting rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his lone start against the Jays this season. The Blue Jays hit will here again as they ride the momentum of happily playing their home games in the Rogers Centre again. At the same time, note the Indians are 3-0 L3 games against a left-handed starter and scored 7.7 runs per game in those victories. With this total dropping from a 9.5 to a 9 it is go time with this one. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-01-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's 9-5 Rays win the over is now on a 26-11 run in match-ups between these teams including 7-1 this season! I see no reason for this trend to come to a halt here. Yes Nick Pivetta has had success against the Rays but he enters this start in poor current form and the Tampa Bay bats are red hot. Pivetta has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of last 5 starts and has a 7.04 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Rays have won 10 of 15 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch! The Red Sox will be facing Shane Mcclanahan and the lefty is off a very fortunate start. He allowed only 3 earned runs but gave up 9 hits and walked 3 for a WHIP of 2.00 in his 6-inning start versus a Yankees lineup. In other words, that is not a good sign for him here as he now takes on a Red Sox team that ranks 7th in majors for slugging percentage versus lefties this season and 3rd in majors for slugging percentage in road games! Boston has scored an average of 7 runs per game last 4 road games and will be a tough test for Mcclanahan who has a 4.33 ERA in the last two months and that is even with pitching out of some big jams in some recent starts. He could easily be north of 5.00 over the past two months and the potent Red Sox lineup is going to give him trouble here. That said, this turns into another high-scoring game because I expect Pivetta's struggles to continue. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay |
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07-28-21 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* OVER 10 in Kansas City @ 8:10 ET - The Royals fell short 5-3 yesterday but this followed a 6-game winning streak in which they scored an average of 6 runs per game. Kansas City got to Lucas Giolito for 5 earned runs in 6 innings the last time they faced him and he is known for struggling more on the road than at home. KC sends Kris Bubic to the mound and the White Sox are known for pounding southpaws. Chicago is 19-9 against left-handed pitching this season and has scored an average of 6 runs per game in those contests. By the way, the over is 3-0 in Giolito's last 3 starts overall and also 8-2 in his 10 road starts this season! Bubic's most recent start resulted in an under but the over was 6-2 in his 8 prior starts this season. Look for a high-scoring slugfest at Kauffman Stadium on a hot summer night in KC Wednesday. 10* OVER 10 in Kansas City |
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07-26-21 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Both teams are off wins yesterday in which they each allowed just 1 run. Based on this pitching match-up, each of these clubs is going to be giving up a whole lot more on Monday. The White Sox send Dallas Keuchel to the mound. He has a knack for struggling more on the road than at home. Also, he enters this start with a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Keuchel has been getting plenty of run support and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and 6-3 in his road starts this season. Mike Minor starts for the Royals here. The over is 6-3 in his home start this season. Minor has a 5.61 ERA at home on the year. He is off a good start at Milwaukee but the Brewers have been involved in a lot of low-scoring games of late. In his two starts that just preceded that one, Minor allowed 10 earned runs in 10 innings. Also, now he faces a White Sox team that is known for pounding southpaws. Chicago ranks 4th in the majors for batting average versus lefties. The White Sox are 19-8 in games against left-handed starters and should hit Minor well, but I also expect Keuchel to get hit hard. The Royals are a solid hitting team at home and rank 6th out of all 30 MLB teams for batting average at home. KC averages 5 runs per game at home. White Sox average 6 runs per game versus left-handed starters. Minor allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his only home start versus Chicago this season. Hot weather for this game this evening and we should see hot bats as well. Both teams rank in the lower half of the majors for bullpen ERA as well. The Royals have won 5 straight games and averaged scoring 6.2 runs per victory. The White Sox are off a low-scoring series with the Brewers but their bats will heat up against Minor and a Royals pen they are familiar with. The result should be plenty of runs for both teams in this one. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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07-24-21 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - 10* OVER 8 in Houston - Great line value here because Kyle Gibson has a low ERA this season but is struggling now and Framber Valdez had great numbers against the Rangers last season but is struggling now. I know Texas has not been scoring well but they can get to Valdez here. He has a 6.46 ERA over his last 3 starts. As for Gibson, he has the impressive full season numbers but has allowed 13 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. 8 of the 10 games between these teams have gone over the total including 6 of 7 meetings in Houston. This total is only an 8 and the Rangers have allowed 7.3 runs per game during their current 10-game losing streak. Astros have won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 5 wins. Again, the low posted total makes sense based on Gibson's full season numbers and Texas struggling to score runs but the key factors here are that Gibson is currently struggling and so to is Valdez. Also, the over is 4-1 in home starts for Valdez and 7-2 in road starts for Gibson this season. 10* OVER 8 in Houston |
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07-23-21 | Angels v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:10 ET - As long time followers know, I like to play overs in particular when I feel the home team pitcher will get hit hard. That is because the home team lineup usually hits the ball better when at home than on the road generally speaking so I am confident they will get their runs and the concern usually has more to do with the away team. As road teams struggle sometimes to hit as well, the confidence level rises when that road team lineup is facing a sub-par pitcher. That said, this one fits the bill perfectly because JA Happ is likely to struggle. The southpaw has a 6.15 ERA on the season and a 7.36 ERA in his last 3 starts. The O/U is 12-5 in his starts this year. The Angels have an O/U record of 21-9 this season in games against left-handed starters and have averaged 5.6 runs per game in those outings. Alex Cobb gets the start for the Angels and, though he has pitched better of late, he has a 6.37 ERA on the road this season and the O/U is 10-4 in his starts this year. He has allowed 14 earned runs in less than 12 innings in his last 3 starts against the Twins and the O/U is 6-1 in Cobb's 7 career starts against Minnesota. This total is double digits for a reason and I expect at least a dozen runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-23-21 | Yankees -102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Friday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Money Line -105 @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - I am aware that the Yankees have some injury/covid issues right now which has impacted their lineup. However, New York had won 4 straight games and had averaged 7 runs per game in the 3 most recent victories before they ended up falling short at Boston last night. The last time they faced Eduardo Rodriguez he did get the better of them but he threw 40 balls in less than 100 pitches. In other words, Rodriguez had some good fortune in that start and this followed a start in which he got hammered by the Angels. Also, on the season he has a 5.19 ERA and this includes a 5.16 ERA in his home starts. Gerrit Cole, on the other hand, has allowed just 1 earned run in his last two starts and piled up 23 strikeouts in 15 innings and this included dominating the Red Sox. Cole has a 2.55 ERA in his road starts this season and the Yankees have won 6 of his 9 outings. He has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 7 of the 9 starts. Before a good start against the Yankees in his most recent home start, Rodriguez had allowed 10 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings spanning his two prior home starts. The Red Sox had lost 4 of 7 before getting the come from behind win last night. Look for the road team to get some payback here as Cole outduels Rodriguez. 10* NEW YORK YANKEES -105 |
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07-22-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NL Central Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - This is a contrarian play as you can see from the recent run of shutout innings for Kwang Hyun Kim. Being a contrarian has been a key for me through the years and I am sensing struggles for Kim in this one. For one thing, these lineups have faced these starting pitchers already as the Cubs have faced Kim and the Cardinals have faced Adbert Alzolay. Adding to the value here is the fact that Kim has nearly as many walks as strikeouts over his last 4 starts. Not only is Kim not a strikeout pitcher, he has walked 11 in his last 4 home starts. In his most recent one he did give up a lot of hard hit balls plus only struck out 1 batter. I think it is all catching up with Kim and that the Cubs will get to him early and often in this one. Yesterday ended up being a low-scoring Cardinals win but the teams did combine for 20 hits! I expect the Cards to get to Alzolay early and often. The Chicago right-hander is 1-6 with a 4.89 ERA in road starts this season. The O/U was on a 5-2 run in meetings between these teams before yesterday's under. The Cubs entered yesterday's game having been shutout once in last 7 games but averaging 5.5 runs per game in the other 6 games. The Cardinals have averaged 5.7 runs their last 3 games. Both teams have more success than most are expecting in this one Thursday. Based on the opening total and what I am seeing with line movement, the sharp money will be on the over in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-22-21 | Braves v. Phillies +127 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Best Bet Blowout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +130 vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - This all about contrarian line value. The Braves are not what they use to be, especially without Ronald Acuna. Also, the last time Charlie Morton faced the Phillies he did not even make it out of the first inning. The Phillies start Matt Moore here and he allowed only 2 runs while striking out 9 in less than 5 innings in his most recent start. Philadelphia is 6-1 in his starts this season and he has a respectable 3.06 ERA his last 4 starts. The Braves have lost 4 of 6 and were also losing yesterday's Game 2 of a double-header when it was suspended by rain in the 5th inning. The Phillies lost in extra innings yesterday as they lost both games of the series with the Yankees but Philadelphia has not lost 3 straight games in 4 weeks! During this time, the Phillies had gone 13-7 last 20 games before the B2B losses to the Yanks. They bounce back here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Best Bet Blowout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - This is another game with an interesting money line. The White Sox are 7-2 in the 9 home starts Dylan Cease has made this season and the Twins Michael Pineda is struggling badly and yet Chicago opened up as a -125 favorite here. This opener is telling me the odds makers feel there is a decent shot at the Twins getting an upset here and the only way I see that happening is if they score a pile of runs. The reason I say that is because Pineda should get rocked here. The Minnesota right-hander is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his last 4 starts. Pineda also has struggled more at night than day games and more on the road than in home games. Specifically against the White Sox he has allowed 8 earned runs on 16 hits in less than 11 innings of work over two recent starts against them. This included 3 homers plus he particularly got roughed up in his most recent start against them which was only two weeks ago. Speaking of familiarity, the Twins lineup has plenty of familiarity with Cease and will be seeing him for the 4th time in a span of about 2 months. Cease has allowed 4 homers in those 3 starts and gave up 6 earned runs at Minnesota about two weeks ago. I know he has good numbers at home but he also has an 8.04 ERA in his 6 career starts about the Twins. Cease struggles here more than you would expect, Pineda's recent struggles continue, and also note that the bullpens allowed 8 of the 13 earned runs in yesterday's game. The over is already 7-2 this season in games between these teams at Chicago and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-20-21 | Suns +180 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line +180 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 9:05 ET - The Suns have lost 3 straight games. Phoenix is 3-0 this year when entering a road game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. The Suns did not lose 4 straight games in the regular season and I do not see this happening in the post-season either. Yes we could grab the points here but the strong post-season trend of the points not mattering in almost every single game continues here in my opinion. Outright Suns win. Phoenix shot the ball extremely well in the Game 5 loss and they also were much better with the ball (finally) and did not lose the turnover battle after 3 straight games in which they did. They will call this a shocking upset but really it will not be. Remember Milwaukee went just 16-14 against the West this season. Phoenix went 21-9 against the East this season. The Suns also had the best road record in the NBA this season with a 24-12 mark. I love the huge dog value we are getting here in a must win spot for the road team. Looking forward to Game 7. Indeed I am confident we will see one! 10* PHOENIX +180 |
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07-20-21 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
AL East Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - We get a low total to work with here because both John Means and Shane McClanahan have great full season numbers. The key to the value here is a bit hidden and that is what makes this a special situation the way I see it! The Orioles Means is coming back from a shoulder injury. He was struggling a bit right before he went on the disabled list. Now, in his 3 rehab starts he also struggled. The Rays were 6-0 and had scored piles of runs against the Orioles before losing to Baltimore for the first time this season in yesterday's game. That was also just the 2nd under in 7 games between these teams this season. I fully expect the Tampa Bay bats to bounce back here and take advantage of a pitcher who could be a bit rusty and also not completely trusting in himself just yet. As for the other side of this equation, yes I do expect the Orioles sticks to enjoy success against McClanahan. He is from Baltimore and grew up idolizing Cal Ripken and the Orioles. Don't be surprised if he ends up struggling to harness his emotions in this start and sometimes that leads to mistake pitches. That said, right now the Orioles have been hot at the plate so this could spell trouble. Baltimore has won 3 straight games and scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in those contests. The Orioles had been trending over heavily before back to back unders. The Rays were on a 3-0 run to the over before yesterday's under. I am aware of the fact the TB pen has been fantastic at home in recent weeks but this total is just too low considering all of the above variables and the Baltimore pen is certainly not a strength. With Rays in bounce back mode they should score a pile here but I expect the O's to get to McClanahan early and often as well. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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07-19-21 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play because the over has cashed in only 3 times in the 17 starts Casey Mize has made this season and Kyle Gibson has a 2.29 ERA in his 17 starts this season. How do I get an over based on that? Well, these pitchers just faced these teams so that gives the lineups an edge. Also, Gibson allowed 5 earned runs in that game for one of his worst starts of the season and it was no fluke as he gave up a lot of hard hit outs too and the damage could have been worse. The over is a surprising 6-2 in Gibson's road starts this season and, after the Rangers got hammered 15-0 combined in their double header loss via sweep at Toronto yesterday, I am expecting a big bounce back at the plate for Texas. The Rangers hit two homers against Mize in the same start in which Gibson was hit hard by the Tigers. Gibson actually has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts against Detroit and was hit very hard in all 3 of them - 28 hits in less than 17 innings combined! Mize has a 5.14 ERA last two starts and a 4.15 ERA at home this season. Certainly not overly impressive and the Rangers quick second look at him should produce some big results. The Tigers bullpen has been one of the worst in MLB this season and the Rangers bullpen has a 5.51 ERA on the road which is one of the worst marks in the majors. Look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest and we will take advantage of the generously low number. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-19-21 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 9* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 5:10 ET (Game 1 of Double Header) - I am predicting this is the game where Lance Lynn runs into some trouble that he does not escape from. In his two July starts he has walked 8 in 12 innings but managed to get out of jams. In June he was not as sharp as April or May as he compiled a 3.81 ERA in the month. I just feel he is edging closer to one of those starts where he unravels a bit and this is it as we catch the Twins ready to bounce back big off a shutout loss yesterday. Minnesota is facing Lynn for the 4th time in a span of about 2 months so they are plenty familiar with him. As for the Twins starter, Griffin Jax gets the call and in 5 games at the MLB level this season he has an 8.66 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. I just do not feel he is quite ready yet for the big show and I look for the White Sox to tattoo him here. Chicago is off a shutout win yesterday and has won 7 of last 8 games and scored an average of 7.3 runs per game in the 7 victories. They hit well here again but the Twins surprise by getting to Lynn early and often and this 7-inning affair goes over the short number. 9* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-18-21 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks continue to find ways to lose and have the worst bullpen in baseball. They gave up 3 runs in the top of the 9th to lose 4-2 to the Cubs. The way I see today's game playing out is that Chicago's Zach Davies is going to get hit so Arizona will get their runs today. I know that Merrill Kelly has decent numbers for the Diamondbacks this season. However, he dealt with leg cramping in his most recent start plus his strikeouts are down recently and his only career start against the Cubs was an ugly one. I am looking for another ugly one here as Chicago has won 4 of 6 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game last 7 games and the over was on an 5-0 run in their games before a sudden 3-game under streak which I see ending here. Davies has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts and his strikeout numbers are down too. The Dbacks had gone over in 4 of 5 games prior to this series and, after back to back unders, this looks like the right match-up for plenty of runs. This is a bit of a contrarian play and long-time followers know I love looking for contrarian situations. I saw some 9.5 popping up on this game and to Joe Public the total of 9 might have already seemed high. So you know where I am going with this...the odds makers are sharp and this total is set this way for a reason. Look for plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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07-17-21 | Bucks +148 v. Suns | Top | 123-119 | Win | 148 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher ML - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #509 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks Money Line +150 @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - The Suns had it in their grasp. It was all theirs for the taking. Then they went to Milwaukee and let it slip away. Yes I know there are still games to be played but I now have major concerns about this Phoenix team. Losing Game 3 was understandable. Not bouncing back though and winning Game 4 was unacceptable. The Suns were supposed to be the better team. They had looked like the better team. But now check out some of these numbers as Phoenix has just not been the same team since the Game One win. The Bucks had 97 shots from the field in Game 4. The Suns had 78. Are you kidding me? An NBA Championship caliber team is off a loss and that is how they perform. How about turnovers? The last 3 games the Suns have more turnovers in every single came and this has accumulated to a total of 43 to 23 during this stretch. That means Phoenix has nearly twice as many turnovers! Milwaukee also has 29 more free throw attempts than the Suns in the last 3 games combined. Again, as they saying goes, the game is not played on paper but when you look at these stats in black and white it is very clear that the Bucks could (should?) have won each of the last 3 games and have a 3-1 lead in the series. In fact, one could argue that the only reason Phoenix won Game 2 is they had twenty 3-pointers made compared to just 9 for the Bucks! Will the Suns again make 20 of 40 three pointers in this home game? I highly doubt it! Finally, for the first time in this series, the road team not only covers the game but they get the outright win! Give me the plus money in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE +150 |
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07-17-21 | Rays v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:20 ET - The Braves blew the lead in last night's loss and their bullpen woes could be an issue tonight. That's because Max Fried has an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts and has lasted only 5 innings in each of his last 3 starts. He is expected to be opposed by the Rays Josh Fleming. The TB southpaw has been working out of the pen but has struggled as a starter with 5 earned runs allowed in each of his last two starts. Also, Fleming has been hit hard and given up a lot of runs in each of his last four road appearances. That said, no matter who Tampa Bay starts, Fleming is likely to get a lot of work here and no matter who the Braves start here, their bullpen has been a mess. So no matter who the pitchers are here, I do like the over in this match-up but do note that the over is 3-0 in Fleming's last 3 starts and 3-0 in Fried's last 3 starts. Look for another high-scoring game in this one. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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07-17-21 | Indians v. A's -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator RL - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #968 Saturday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Run Line -1.5 runs +115 vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:05 ET - The A's rallied for the win last night and will build off that this afternoon. Cleveland has lost 10 of 13 games. Prior to last night's defeat, 7 of last 10 Indians defeats by 2 or more runs and this has blowout potential. Cleveland is starting Cal Quantrill and he has a 9.29 ERA on the road this season and the Indians are 0-3 in those starts. Oakland is starting Frankie Montas and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of last 6 starts. Montas struck out 10 in his most recent start before the All Star break and now looks to dominate here. The A's have now won 9 of last 13 home games. The line is a little pricey here on the money line but we get plus money on the run line and that is the route to take here. 10* OAKLAND -1.5 runs +115 |
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07-16-21 | Rays v. Braves -124 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -124 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #934 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line -125 vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:20 ET - Action on the pitchers. Contrarian play all the way. Regardless of who pitches, I love taking the Braves here (with a poor IL record this season) and without Ronald Acuna (out for the season - torn ACL) and fading a Rays team that has a great IL record this season. First off the line value is there with Atlanta as a small home favorite which is certainly partially due to the Acuna injury situation. Secondly, if these pitchers do go (certainly likely), the edges are especially off the charts here. Michael Wacha has had a couple rare quality starts recently but this is still a guy who has a 4.68 ERA on the road this season and generally gives up a lot of contact. Also, Wacha is 0-4 with a 5.16 ERA in his 5 career starts against the Braves. As for Atlanta's Charlie Morton, the 37-year old veteran has found his groove again to say the least. 4 of his last 5 starts have been quality starts and Morton has allowed a total of just 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts against the Rays! He went at least 6 innings in each of those 3 starts. Morton is 8-3 this season including 5-1 in his home starts. Again, even if the start pitchers get shuffled for the opener in this one, the contrarian in me likes the Braves a lot at home and coming off a loss right before the break. The Braves are 8-2 last 10 times off a loss. The Rays are also off a loss and they haven't exactly bounced back lately off a loss. Tampa Bay has had recent 7-game AND 5-game losing streaks! They have not had a standalone loss since June 10th! In other words, another losing streak getting underway would not be a surprise. 10* ATLANTA |
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07-16-21 | Padres v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 24-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - I like the over here no matter who pitches. Why? Well, these teams have had only 2 unders in their last 11 meetings! The Padres are scheduled to throw Chris Paddack and he has a 12.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Nationals are expected to start Erick Fedde and he has a 9.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. These teams just met for 4 games in San Diego prior to the All Star break and not only was the over a perfect 4-0, the games averaged 15 runs each! That said, as noted above, no matter who starts in this one, my play is the over as these teams continue to pound each other in the first game of this 3-game set in DC. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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07-14-21 | Suns +157 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Money Line Shocker - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line +157 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 9 ET - Giannis had 17 free throw attempts for the Bucks Sunday while Phoenix only had 16 shots from the charity stripe. The Suns Devin Booker averaged 29 points in the first two games but then was a miserable 3 of 14 from the field in Game 3. Those two unusual stat variations will NOT be repeated Wednesday and I love the fact that the Suns, since late January, have gone 15-3 SU when off a loss. No points needed here. The Suns win outright and avoid the pressure of heading home with this series knotted at 2 games apiece. Unlike Milwaukee, Phoenix has shown the ability to win consistently on the road in this post-season. I do not see them losing two straight games. The Suns respond in a big way here and the extra time off between games benefited them as it took away some of the Bucks momentum. 10* PHOENIX Money Line +157 |
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07-11-21 | Suns +168 v. Bucks | Top | 100-120 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
Money Line Finals Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line +170 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The normal reaction is to expect the Bucks to bounce back on their home floor and get a win. Conventional wisdom says that will happen. In typical contrarian fashion though I love to buck conventional wisdom. I know the NBA would love to have a longer series but this is not looking good for the Bucks. What people are forgetting is how Milwaukee got to this point. They beat a Heat team and a Hawks team that play in the weak Southeast Division. They also beat a Nets team that dealt with significant injuries to 2/3 of its Big Three with both Harden and Irving dealing with injuries in that series. I just do not think the Bucks are in the same class as the Suns. They were down double digits entering the 4th quarter of each game in Phoenix. I know Milwaukee is a better team when at home but do you realize that the Suns have won 13 of 15 games including 6 of 7 on the road? Championship teams win on the road. The Bucks? They have lost 6 of last 9 road games and one of the three wins was in OT. I know...I know...Milwaukee is at home here but you get my point...the best teams know how to win on the road and that is a Championship-caliber team. All the pressure here is on the Bucks. They are down 2-0 in this series and, unlike when they faced the Nets in this same situation two rounds ago, the Suns are 100% healthy. By the way Milwaukee scored only 86 points in that game 3 win. Now they face a healthy Phoenix team. Also, the Suns have scored an average of 122 points in their last 3 games including 130 in most recent road game. I am going contrarian here and playing the loose and relaxed team that is playing with confidence and no pressure. No points needed. Upset time. Give me the big plus money return. 10* PHOENIX +170 |
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07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs New York Yankees @ 2:10 ET - This is contrarian all the way. This total has moved from a 9 to an 8.5 for a few reasons. A big one is that Carlos Correa is likely to again be out of the lineup Sunday for the Astros. Another is that Jameson Taillon is off a strong start for the Yankees. So, weaker Houston lineup, starting pitcher entering off strong start, and you can see why this total made a downward move. In my mind, this is merely serving to give us excellent line value here. The Astros should still hit Taillon well. His last start was a rare successful road outing and the first time he pitched 7 innings this season. After throwing over 100 pitches and also helped by being given a huge early 8-0 lead in that game, Taillon comes back down to earth here. Taillon, even off the great start at Seattle, still has an 8.25 ERA on the road this season. His trending in recent seasons also has shown him to be much better at home than on the road. This season, the O/U in his road starts is 6-0. As for Astros starter Framber Valdez, he has seen the over go 3-1 in his home starts and he allowed 6 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits in just 5 innings in his most recent home start. The last time Valdez faced the Yankees he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 and 1/3 innings. After yesterday's 1-0 game we have seen an over-reaction here particularly because of the Correa situation too. That said, this is not Cole and Greinke today! This total is being kept way too low considering this match-up is Taillon and Valdez. Look for plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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07-11-21 | Phillies +110 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Boston Red Sox @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies Aaron Nola has allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two road starts. Overall he has struck out 31 batters in 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Yes that is an average of nearly 2 batters per inning! Also, Nola has a fantastic 2.67 ERA in his 4 career starts against the Red Sox. Boston will start former Phillie Nick Pivetta in this one. This will be his first start against his former team. Sometimes the pressure of facing a former team can be tough on a hurler and Pivetta also has struggled at home in recent starts. His last 4 home starts have seen him allow 18 earned runs in 20 innings! That is an 8.10 ERA. Not only that, Pivetta has allowed 22 hits in his last 14 innings at home. The Red Sox are a great team so far this season and they would love to bounce back after yesterday's ugly loss. However, this is too much value on a surging Phillies team with a strong pitcher on the mound. The Red Sox are 3-4 last 7 games and only have had one big game at the plate in their last 8 games. In the other 7 games Boston has averaged scoring only 3.4 runs per game. The Phillies enter this game having won 7 of 11 games and have scored an average of 9 runs per game last 6 games! 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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07-10-21 | Yankees -106 v. Astros | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Cash EVE - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Money Line -105 @ Houston Astros @ 7:15 ET - I know Gerrit Cole's numbers have been off a little of late. But the Yankees right-hander is going against his former team again and I expect this to bring out the best in him. Cole gave up 2 solo homers against the Astros on May 6th but otherwise was rock solid against the Astros in that one and still deserved better than a no decision. Cole has a 3.00 ERA on the road this season. Houston is starting Zack Greinke here which is why we are getting such a favorable line on Cole and the Yankees. While the Astros Greinke certainly deserves some respect he has a 5.26 ERA in his home starts this season. Greinke has walked 8 plus given up 4 runs on 6 hits in 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Yankees. Greinke lost his most recent home start and was hit hard in that one by the Orioles. Cole will bounce back from a loss in his most recent road start as he was 5-1 in road games on the season prior to that one. He had been solid on the road all season while Greinke has had some issues in home starts this season for sure. Overall, with yesterday's big Yankees win, New York has won 4 of 5 and allowed only 2.2 runs per game in the 5 games! The Astros have lost 5 of last 7 home games. 10* NEW YORK YANKEES -105 |
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07-10-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
IL Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:10 ET - This IL (InterLeague) match-up totaled 16 runs yesterday and I expect another wild one today. We get some excellent value here because it looks like Martin Perez has been throwing well but, the fact is, he has not. Perez has a 1.88 ERA his last 3 starts but he has been very fortunate. Perez has allowed 21 hits in just 14 and 1/3 innings. Also, Perez has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 innings in his two most recent starts against the Phillies and he walked 6 in one of those outings so the damage could have been much worse. Matt Moore gets the start for the Phillies here. The southpaw is off a tough start against the Cubs at Wrigley Field and the damage could have been worse as he allowed 5 hits and walked 2 in just 4 innings. Moore has a 6.30 ERA as a starter this season and Boston could pound him here. The Red Sox have won 11 of 14 games and Boston has averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Phillies have seen the over go a perfect 6-0 in last road games. Philadelphia has scored an average of 8 runs per game in those contests. On a very pleasant afternoon at Fenway Park with great weather expected, look for plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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07-09-21 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #920 Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line -135 vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - The Indians are bringing back Triston McKenzie from a stint in the minors and I expect his stint at the AAA level to pay off big. Though he had a high ERA this season it is a bit deceiving. McKenzie held opposing hitters to a .188 batting average and struck out 59 hitters in 42 and 1/3 innings. He is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Royals. I am well aware that the Indians have been on a losing streak but welcoming KC to town could surely be a good thing that snaps the trend. Sure enough yesterday Cleveland got the win to end their losing streak. The Royals are 15-29 on the road this season and 18-33 against teams with a winning record. The Indians are 28-17 this season in games against teams that do not have a winning record and I look for them to build off yesterday's win. Kansas City sends Brad Keller to the mound. Keller lost his most recent start at Cleveland and allowed 5 runs (4 earned) in that one. Also, he enters this start with an 0-3 mark, 6.61 ERA, and 2.14 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Keller has a 6.39 ERA on the season. This series is a great opportunity for the Indians to get back on track before the All Star break and I look for them to build off yesterday's win with another victory this evening as McKenzie comes up big and Keller struggles. 10* CLEVELAND -135 |
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07-09-21 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
1st Half of the Season Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs in Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The over is 8-2 in Chicago's last 10 games. The White Sox should pound Jorge Lopez but they have concerns on the mound of their own here as Dallas Keuchel gets the call in this one. Keuchel has allowed 13 runs (10 earned) in 6 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Both of those outings were on the road where he has a 5.12 ERA on the season. The White Sox southpaw allowed 3 homers among 8 hits in just 5 innings in his prior start against the Orioles this season and that was at home. Now he faces them at Baltimore where the O's are known to hit better. Baltimore starts Lopez here and he has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits and 8 walks in 9 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts overall. Also, seeing the White Sox may not help matters as he has allowed 22 hits including 5 homers in 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The over is on a 14-5 run in Orioles games and as mentioned above Chicago has been trending over as well last 10 games. Look for plenty of runs in this one as a result. 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Baltimore |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +189 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks Money Line +190 @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - The Bucks are a perfect 4-0 SU the last 4 times they were off a loss. Milwaukee has played great defense after a game in which they tasted defeat as the Bucks allowed 91 points or less in 3 of those 4 victories. I expect a very strong effort from a hungry Milwaukee team and note that the Suns had alternated wins and losses in their 5 games prior to the victory to open up this series. The Bucks were outscored by 16 points at the free throw line in Game 1 but otherwise won the game by 3 points. There is great value here in my opinion. I know we could take the points at +5.5 as added insurance but as we have seen throughout this post-season, there have hardly been any games where the point-spread has matter. Since late May, as an example, the SU winner has also been the ATS winner in 14 of 15 Bucks games and 13 of 14 Suns games. I will grab the big plus money here. 10* MILWAUKEE +190 |
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07-08-21 | Phillies +103 v. Cubs | Top | 8-0 | Win | 103 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs had lost 11 straight games before yesterday's win and one game certainly does not change everything. Also, the Phillies have not lost back to back games in 2 weeks as they have gone 5-0 L5 when off a loss. I know Philadelphia has a bad record in Zach Eflin's road starts but he has been very strong in his last two outings entering this one with just 3 earned runs allowed in 12 innings of work. Also, Eflin has pitched very well at Wrigley Field with just 2 earned runs allowed in 13 and 2/3 innings. I look for a very strong start from him here and I expect the Phillies to pound Adbert Alzolay. Philadelphia had averaged 14 runs a game in the first two games of this series and will bounce back here. Alzolay has seen the Cubs go 0-3 in his last 3 starts while he has compiled a 6.13 ERA plus allowed multiple homers in each start. More of the same expected here. The wind will be blowing in so not many homers expected in this one but look for the Phillies to outhit the Cubs. Big road win expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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07-08-21 | A's v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - The A's .429 slugging percentage in road games this season ranks as one of the best in the majors. The Astros overall .444 slugging percentage on the season also ranks as one of the best in the majors. After yesterday's low-scoring under featured very few hits, I look for the bats to come back to life in this one. Houston's Lance McCullers has great numbers on the season but he did walk 4 in his most recent start and was lucky to get out of numerous jams as he allowed 10 baserunners in that start. The right-hander also walked 4 in his most recent home start. The A's have already seen him twice this season and, likewise, the Astros hitters have already seen Oakland's Frankie Montas twice this year. Montas has allowed 20 hits (including 4 homers) in less than 15 innings in his last 3 starts against Houston. The over is 9-3 in the 12 games between these divisional foes so far this season. The over is 8-4 in McCullers starts this season and 4-2 in Montas road starts this season. Also, the A's righthander has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens +199 v. Lightning | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #31 Wednesday 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Money Line (+) @ Tampa Bay Lightning @ 8:05 ET - The Lightning have nothing to worry about, right? They are back on home ice, had won the first 3 games of the series, and they have the championship pedigree. While certainly Tampa Bay could finish this series off tonight, I feel there is a ton of value with the big road dog in this one. The Lightning had 5 power play opportunities compared to just 1 for the Canadiens in Game 4 and the Habs still got the win. Montreal killed off all 5 power plays and their penalty kill has been the best of all playoff teams in this post-season and is a big part of the reason they are still standing. I also like the fact that the Canadiens outshot the Lightning 43 to 23 in the most recent game at TB but lost the game. The Habs are a confident bunch as a result of that huge effort here. They know they can win here and should have won that game. Prior to this series the Canadiens were on a red hot run on enemy ice. Don't be surprised if they get the shocking upset win here and force a Game 6 back in Canada. Carey Price was huge in goal in Game 4 and certainly capable of helping the Canadiens steal a game on the road here. 10* MONTREAL |
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07-07-21 | Phillies -135 v. Cubs | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -135 @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies beat the Cubs in a wild 15-10 final and that was the 11th straight loss for Chicago. Struggles for the Cubs likely to continue here as they face the Phillies most consistent hurler. Zack Wheeler had a 2.92 ERA last season in his first year with the Phillies. He has been even better this season with a 2.05 ERA and a .200 BAA and he also enters this start in top form. Wheeler has allowed just 8 hits while striking out 17 in 14 and 2/3 scoreless innings spanning his last two starts! The Cubs Alec Mills is off a rare solid start to open up July. Keep in mind he was hit at a .339 clip (mostly as a starter) in June and he also got hit at a .381 clip (all out of the bullpen) in May. I look for him to get hit hard here and for Wheeler to continue to dominate. The result should be a road rout. 10* PHILADELPHIA -135 |
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07-07-21 | Braves v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves @ 12:35 ET - I used this play yesterday and it never had a chance. That will not stop me from coming right back with it today. That was just the 3rd under in the last 13 games between these teams. Also, I know Drew Smyly has been fantastic his last 3 starts but 2 of those were at home. The over is 6-2 in his road starts this season and he has a respectable, but not great, 4.22 ERA on the road this season. Smyly has allowed 7 earned runs in 12 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts against the Pirates and he allowed 2 homers in EACH start and that includes one this season in Atlanta. The Pirates counter with William Crowe in this one. He has an 8.59 ERA in two starts versus the Braves this season and both went over the total and that includes being matched up with Smyly on May 20th in Atlanta. That one totaled double digits in runs and this one should too. Crowe is 0-4 with a 5.66 ERA in his 5 home starts this season. Look for this one to be the complete opposite of yesterday's low-scoring duel. We'll see a surprising early afternoon slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 9:05 ET - Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for this game. The line still may look a little steep to most considering the Bucks have been winning some games without him. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of that thinking. I look for Phoenix to win this game by double digits. This is the toughest team the Bucks have faced in the post-season and they are on the road and they are not at full strength and likely without their best player. Blowout home win in the forecast here to get the finals underway. Suns on 10-3 ATS run. Milwaukee off a rare road win and cover and had been on 2-4 ATS run in road games. 10* PHOENIX |
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07-06-21 | Phillies -132 v. Cubs | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs have now lost 10 straight games. Chicago has scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game in those 10 games. In fact, taking out the one good game at the plate, the Cubs have averaged only 2 runs per game in the other 9 games. Aaron Nola should dominate here. Yes he fell apart late in his most recent start but his prior start was a gem and, overall, he has recorded 23 strikeouts in 10 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The way the Cubs are slumping he should dominate here. As for Chicago starter Jake Arrieta, he would love to come up big against a former team but he has an 8.38 ERA and a 2.28 WHIP his last 3 starts. He has walked 7 while striking out just 6 over his last two starts. The Phillies have won 6 of 10 games and will build off the momentum of yesterday's big win with another big game at the plate in a match-up that certainly has the look and feel of a complete mismatch. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-06-21 | Braves v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - I know that Ian Anderson has great numbers for the Braves this season and his road starts have trended under. However, the Pirates have seen him once already this season and do tend to hit better at home and showed that tendency with yesterday's 11-1 win. They should do enough here with the bats for us to get the over because the Atlanta bats should absolutely pound Chad Kuhl. The over is 8-2 in the Pirates right-handers 10 home starts this season and it will be a very hot day in Pittsburgh today so still very warm in the evening too. Kuhl has a 5.16 ERA on the season and has had some command issues in recent starts. I know he has some good numbers at times this season but he looks a little "off" in recent outings and this is not a good match-up for him with the Braves hungry to bounce back off yesterday's shellacking. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +142 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 142 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Monday 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Money Line +140 vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 8:05 ET - The Canadiens can rise up and win a game here. They should have won Game 2. Of course blowing that game despite a 43-23 edge in shots on goal is why they are on the brink of elimination now. The Habs have outshot TB by 25 shots on goal the past two games combined. However, that does not change the fact that it is the Lightning that are still winning the games. I see that changing tonight as professional pride kicks in at its highest level for this proud, resilient home dog. Remember they were left for dead when they were down 3 to 1 in the opening round series with the Maple Leafs. Montreal then won 3 straight and never looked back as they got on a major roll. I am not saying they win this series of course, I am just saying they win at least one game and avoid the sweep and that "must win" happens tonight as Montreal staves off elimination with another very valiant effort like they had in Game 2 that, this time, also translates to victory on the scoreboard. 10* MONTREAL +140 |
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07-05-21 | Indians v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - Logan Allen starts for the Indians and is 1-5 with an 8.85 ERA as a starter this season. The over is 6-2 in Rich Hill's 8 home starts this season. Though he has pitched fairly well overall this season, he has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. I know Cleveland is off back to back unders but this followed a streak of 7 straight games without an under and I expect Allen to get pounded and for Hill to continue to have some long-ball troubles in this one. The Rays have averaged scoring 5.8 runs per game last 14 home games. Tampa Bay is off back to back unders but this followed a 4-1 stretch to the over. This is a bit of a contrarian play based on recent results but I like having the over here based on all of the above and with each club off B2B unders but now enjoying a change of scenery to begin this series. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay |
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07-05-21 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Run Line -1.5 runs -115 @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates are off a surprising 2-0 win yesterday as they had lost 6 straight games. Even with the win, note that Pittsburgh has not scored more than 2 runs in any of their last 7 games. That said, the Braves Max Fried should have a great start here. Fried has been rounding back into top form and has a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts with a 0.89 WHIP. Chase De Jong of the Pirates will be his counterpart tonight and he is struggling badly. De Jong is winless with a 5.65 ERA in his 6 starts this season and has taken the loss in each of his last 3 starts. Each of the Pirates last 7 losses have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Admittedly, the Braves have had a lot of tight one-run wins lately but, based on all of the above, this one has the makings of an absolute road rout. The Braves 3 wins over the Pirates this season have been by an incredible combined score of 33 to 3. Another blowout here. 10* ATLANTA -1.5 -115 |
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07-04-21 | Rangers +127 v. Mariners | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Sunday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line +125 @ Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 ET - You look at this line and something looks funny, right? In typical contrarian fashion, I am playing the side most will not want here. Flexen is 6-3 with a 3.97 ERA and Foltynewicz is 2-7 with a 5.17 ERA and the Mariners are at home and laying a rather small price. Looks easy to ride Seattle here does it not? Well the old saying "looks too good to be true" is what I expect to play out here and I am rolling with the Rangers. Foltynewicz is off back to back strong outings and really appears to be turning the corner plus he had a strong start in his most recent outing at Seattle and has allowed 12 in 13 and 2/3 innings spanning his two starts against the Mariners this season. Flexen had a solid start against the Rangers the last time he faced them but this followed 10 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings in prior start against Texas. The fact is that Flexen has been fortunate this season and that good fortune will run out soon. It is not normal to be getting hit at a nearly .300 clip like he is for the season and yet have a below 4.00 ERA. I also like the fact that Flexen struggled badly in his most recent start and was fortunate the damage was not worse in that one at Toronto. The Rangers bullpen, over the last 15 days, also has a lower ERA than Seattle's does and that has helped key an 8-4 run for Texas which I fully expect to add another W here with the road upset for the Rangers. 10* TEXAS +125 |
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07-04-21 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres @ 1:05 ET - The over is 6-2 in Blake Snell's road starts this season. The Padres are 0-8 in Snell's outings away from home this season where the lefty has a 10.36 ERA in his starts. I simply do not trust Vince Velasquez or the Phillies bullpen enough to play against him however. That said, I like the over a lot here! Look for Snell's road misery to continue. He missed his last start in the rotation due to illness and now faces a Phillies team which has won 5 of last 8 games and starting to build some confidence again. As for Velasquez, he is off a great start versus Miami but had been struggling heading into that outing. The Padres have now lost 3 straight but had been red hot, including at the plate, and their big hitters bounce back large in this one. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - Giannis is more likely to miss this game than Trae Young. I just can't see Young missing a win or go home game while Giannis has the luxury of knowing there would still be a Game 7 at home in Milwaukee he can rest up for if the Bucks lose this game. Subconsciously, the Bucks could have a letdown here. They rallied the troops in the first game without Giannis on Thursday but I just don't see them again shooting 50 percent from the field without him like they did in Game 5. That said, regardless of who plays, I like the Hawks to get a big win here at home in Game 6. They did win Game 4 convincingly here without Young and even before Giannis got hurt in the 3rd quarter of that game, the Bucks were down by double digits for most of that game. Milwaukee has lost 4 of last 6 road games. The home team has won 4 of last 6 games between these teams and the Hawks held the Bucks to 39% from the field and 20% three pointers the last time these teams met in Atlanta. The home team, after being embarrassed at Milwaukee in Game 5, will respond big here in Game 6 regardless of who is on the floor. But, in that regard, the odds favor that it will be Young coming back for this one and not Giannis. Either way, the play here is the home team in a blowout. 10* ATLANTA |